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000
FXUS62 KRAH 241026
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
625 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 AM SUNDAY...

VERY QUIET AND SEASONABLE TODAY/TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND BACK WESTWARD OVER
VA/NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE HEIGHTS RISE STEADILY OVER AND JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. PRECIP WATER IS EXPECTED TO SIT CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS... INCREASING A BIT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...
HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH A STABLE LAYER JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER TOP. A COUPLE SETS OF
MODEL OUTPUT INCLUDING THE 3KM NAMRR CONUS NEST AND NCAR WRF
ENSEMBLE PLUS THE WRF-HEAVY SREF MEAN SUPPORT ISOLATED LATE DAY
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN... A BIT MORE NUMEROUS ALONG THE
INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE IN THE FAR SE (SAMPSON CO AND SE WAYNE CO).
BUT THESE PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT WE`LL
SEE MUCH IF ANY BUOYANCY ALOFT... SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BE
QUITE SHALLOW... PLUS THE GFS REMAINS DRY. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST
DRY... BUT LOCATIONS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
WITH COVERAGE UNDER 10%. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND FAIR
SKIES TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES JUST AROUND 10 M BELOW NORMAL
WILL BE OFFSET BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE... YIELDING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...
WITH HIGHS 80-84 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...

MORE OF THE SAME FOR MEMORIAL DAY... EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER. MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST...
WHILE SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS NC. PW INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND
WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND 850 MB... AS WELL AS A FEW
HIGH THIN CLOUDS EMANATING FROM SRN PLAINS CONVECTION. DRY WEATHER
IS STILL EXPECTED. MODELS HINT AT A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF SC AND SW NC LATE IN THE DAY... HOWEVER WEAK AND
MEANDERING STEERING FLOW WILL ENSURE THAT THESE HOLD OUT OF OUR CWA.
THE LOW LEVEL DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE EXPECTED SUPPORTS HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE MID 60S MON NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF STRATUS
ESPECIALLY WEST LATE AT NIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING UP A BIT FROM THE
SSW AT 5-8 MPH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR FOR THE LONG TERM
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA
WITH A SURFACE HIGH OFF OF THE COAST. IF ANYTHING HAS CHANGED IN THE
FORECAST...IT IS THAT DIURNAL CONVECTION EMBEDDED INTO THE SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW MAKES IT FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. CHANCES DECREASE FURTHER
EAST. IN GENERAL...INSTABILITY INDICATES ROUGHLY 500-1000 J/KG WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 10-20 KTS OVER THE TRIAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THIS OCCURRING IS
FAIRLY LOW BECAUSE THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL CONVECTION WEST OF THE AREA. THAT
BEING SAID...TO PICK A DAY THAT WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
CONVECTION...IT WOULD PROBABLY BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE LOW 80S TO
POSSIBLY LOW 90S IN SOME OF THE WARMER SPOTS. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TEMPERATURES IS RELATED TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE
AS A STRONGER RIDGE WITH LESS CONVECTION WILL YIELD WARMER TEMPS
WHEREAS IF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...MORE CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION
COULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR 90S LATER IN THE WEEK AND RESULT IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER HIGHS. STILL ABOVE NORMAL REGARDLESS. LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 625 AM SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND
STRONGLY WESTWARD ACROSS NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE ALOFT... DRY
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS AND JUST OFFSHORE.
SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH BASES WELL
ABOVE 4KFT AGL. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SSW AT 7-10
KTS BY 15Z... THEN DROP BACK BELOW 7 KTS BY 00Z TONIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG NEAR INT/GSO TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD... 08Z-12Z LATE TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z MON MORNING: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AT INT/GSO
AND PERHAPS RDU LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING (08Z-13Z) AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN TERMINALS THEN SPREADS SLOWLY
EASTWARD. WILL THEN HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS
LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO. A FEW SHOWERS/
STORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WED AND THU
AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO... BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 241026
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
625 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 AM SUNDAY...

VERY QUIET AND SEASONABLE TODAY/TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND BACK WESTWARD OVER
VA/NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE HEIGHTS RISE STEADILY OVER AND JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. PRECIP WATER IS EXPECTED TO SIT CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS... INCREASING A BIT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...
HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH A STABLE LAYER JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER TOP. A COUPLE SETS OF
MODEL OUTPUT INCLUDING THE 3KM NAMRR CONUS NEST AND NCAR WRF
ENSEMBLE PLUS THE WRF-HEAVY SREF MEAN SUPPORT ISOLATED LATE DAY
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN... A BIT MORE NUMEROUS ALONG THE
INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE IN THE FAR SE (SAMPSON CO AND SE WAYNE CO).
BUT THESE PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT WE`LL
SEE MUCH IF ANY BUOYANCY ALOFT... SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BE
QUITE SHALLOW... PLUS THE GFS REMAINS DRY. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST
DRY... BUT LOCATIONS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
WITH COVERAGE UNDER 10%. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND FAIR
SKIES TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES JUST AROUND 10 M BELOW NORMAL
WILL BE OFFSET BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE... YIELDING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...
WITH HIGHS 80-84 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...

MORE OF THE SAME FOR MEMORIAL DAY... EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER. MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST...
WHILE SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS NC. PW INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND
WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND 850 MB... AS WELL AS A FEW
HIGH THIN CLOUDS EMANATING FROM SRN PLAINS CONVECTION. DRY WEATHER
IS STILL EXPECTED. MODELS HINT AT A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF SC AND SW NC LATE IN THE DAY... HOWEVER WEAK AND
MEANDERING STEERING FLOW WILL ENSURE THAT THESE HOLD OUT OF OUR CWA.
THE LOW LEVEL DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE EXPECTED SUPPORTS HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE MID 60S MON NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF STRATUS
ESPECIALLY WEST LATE AT NIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING UP A BIT FROM THE
SSW AT 5-8 MPH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR FOR THE LONG TERM
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA
WITH A SURFACE HIGH OFF OF THE COAST. IF ANYTHING HAS CHANGED IN THE
FORECAST...IT IS THAT DIURNAL CONVECTION EMBEDDED INTO THE SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW MAKES IT FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. CHANCES DECREASE FURTHER
EAST. IN GENERAL...INSTABILITY INDICATES ROUGHLY 500-1000 J/KG WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 10-20 KTS OVER THE TRIAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THIS OCCURRING IS
FAIRLY LOW BECAUSE THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL CONVECTION WEST OF THE AREA. THAT
BEING SAID...TO PICK A DAY THAT WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
CONVECTION...IT WOULD PROBABLY BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE LOW 80S TO
POSSIBLY LOW 90S IN SOME OF THE WARMER SPOTS. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TEMPERATURES IS RELATED TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE
AS A STRONGER RIDGE WITH LESS CONVECTION WILL YIELD WARMER TEMPS
WHEREAS IF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...MORE CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION
COULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR 90S LATER IN THE WEEK AND RESULT IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER HIGHS. STILL ABOVE NORMAL REGARDLESS. LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 625 AM SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND
STRONGLY WESTWARD ACROSS NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE ALOFT... DRY
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS AND JUST OFFSHORE.
SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH BASES WELL
ABOVE 4KFT AGL. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SSW AT 7-10
KTS BY 15Z... THEN DROP BACK BELOW 7 KTS BY 00Z TONIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG NEAR INT/GSO TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD... 08Z-12Z LATE TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z MON MORNING: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AT INT/GSO
AND PERHAPS RDU LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING (08Z-13Z) AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN TERMINALS THEN SPREADS SLOWLY
EASTWARD. WILL THEN HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS
LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO. A FEW SHOWERS/
STORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WED AND THU
AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO... BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 240635
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 AM SUNDAY...

VERY QUIET AND SEASONABLE TODAY/TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND BACK WESTWARD OVER
VA/NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE HEIGHTS RISE STEADILY OVER AND JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. PRECIP WATER IS EXPECTED TO SIT CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS... INCREASING A BIT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...
HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH A STABLE LAYER JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER TOP. A COUPLE SETS OF
MODEL OUTPUT INCLUDING THE 3KM NAMRR CONUS NEST AND NCAR WRF
ENSEMBLE PLUS THE WRF-HEAVY SREF MEAN SUPPORT ISOLATED LATE DAY
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN... A BIT MORE NUMEROUS ALONG THE
INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE IN THE FAR SE (SAMPSON CO AND SE WAYNE CO).
BUT THESE PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT WE`LL
SEE MUCH IF ANY BUOYANCY ALOFT... SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BE
QUITE SHALLOW... PLUS THE GFS REMAINS DRY. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST
DRY... BUT LOCATIONS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
WITH COVERAGE UNDER 10%. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND FAIR
SKIES TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES JUST AROUND 10 M BELOW NORMAL
WILL BE OFFSET BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE... YIELDING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...
WITH HIGHS 80-84 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...

MORE OF THE SAME FOR MEMORIAL DAY... EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER. MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST...
WHILE SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS NC. PW INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND
WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND 850 MB... AS WELL AS A FEW
HIGH THIN CLOUDS EMANATING FROM SRN PLAINS CONVECTION. DRY WEATHER
IS STILL EXPECTED. MODELS HINT AT A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF SC AND SW NC LATE IN THE DAY... HOWEVER WEAK AND
MEANDERING STEERING FLOW WILL ENSURE THAT THESE HOLD OUT OF OUR CWA.
THE LOW LEVEL DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE EXPECTED SUPPORTS HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE MID 60S MON NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF STRATUS
ESPECIALLY WEST LATE AT NIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING UP A BIT FROM THE
SSW AT 5-8 MPH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR FOR THE LONG TERM
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA
WITH A SURFACE HIGH OFF OF THE COAST. IF ANYTHING HAS CHANGED IN THE
FORECAST...IT IS THAT DIURNAL CONVECTION EMBEDDED INTO THE SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW MAKES IT FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. CHANCES DECREASE FURTHER
EAST. IN GENERAL...INSTABILITY INDICATES ROUGHLY 500-1000 J/KG WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 10-20 KTS OVER THE TRIAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THIS OCCURRING IS
FAIRLY LOW BECAUSE THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL CONVECTION WEST OF THE AREA. THAT
BEING SAID...TO PICK A DAY THAT WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
CONVECTION...IT WOULD PROBABLY BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE LOW 80S TO
POSSIBLY LOW 90S IN SOME OF THE WARMER SPOTS. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TEMPERATURES IS RELATED TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE
AS A STRONGER RIDGE WITH LESS CONVECTION WILL YIELD WARMER TEMPS
WHEREAS IF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...MORE CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION
COULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR 90S LATER IN THE WEEK AND RESULT IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER HIGHS. STILL ABOVE NORMAL REGARDLESS. LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND
STRONGLY WESTWARD ACROSS NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE ALOFT... DRY
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS AND JUST OFFSHORE.
SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH BASES WELL
ABOVE 4KFT AGL. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SSW AT 7-10
KTS BY 15Z... THEN DROP BACK BELOW 7 KTS BY 00Z TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY MON MORNING: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AT INT/GSO
AND PERHAPS RDU LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING (08Z-13Z) AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN TERMINALS THEN SPREADS SLOWLY
EASTWARD. WILL THEN HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS
LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO. A FEW SHOWERS/
STORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WED AND THU
AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO... BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240635
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 AM SUNDAY...

VERY QUIET AND SEASONABLE TODAY/TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND BACK WESTWARD OVER
VA/NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE HEIGHTS RISE STEADILY OVER AND JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. PRECIP WATER IS EXPECTED TO SIT CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS... INCREASING A BIT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...
HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH A STABLE LAYER JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER TOP. A COUPLE SETS OF
MODEL OUTPUT INCLUDING THE 3KM NAMRR CONUS NEST AND NCAR WRF
ENSEMBLE PLUS THE WRF-HEAVY SREF MEAN SUPPORT ISOLATED LATE DAY
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN... A BIT MORE NUMEROUS ALONG THE
INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE IN THE FAR SE (SAMPSON CO AND SE WAYNE CO).
BUT THESE PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT WE`LL
SEE MUCH IF ANY BUOYANCY ALOFT... SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BE
QUITE SHALLOW... PLUS THE GFS REMAINS DRY. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST
DRY... BUT LOCATIONS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
WITH COVERAGE UNDER 10%. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND FAIR
SKIES TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES JUST AROUND 10 M BELOW NORMAL
WILL BE OFFSET BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE... YIELDING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...
WITH HIGHS 80-84 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...

MORE OF THE SAME FOR MEMORIAL DAY... EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER. MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST...
WHILE SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS NC. PW INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND
WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND 850 MB... AS WELL AS A FEW
HIGH THIN CLOUDS EMANATING FROM SRN PLAINS CONVECTION. DRY WEATHER
IS STILL EXPECTED. MODELS HINT AT A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF SC AND SW NC LATE IN THE DAY... HOWEVER WEAK AND
MEANDERING STEERING FLOW WILL ENSURE THAT THESE HOLD OUT OF OUR CWA.
THE LOW LEVEL DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE EXPECTED SUPPORTS HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE MID 60S MON NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF STRATUS
ESPECIALLY WEST LATE AT NIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING UP A BIT FROM THE
SSW AT 5-8 MPH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR FOR THE LONG TERM
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA
WITH A SURFACE HIGH OFF OF THE COAST. IF ANYTHING HAS CHANGED IN THE
FORECAST...IT IS THAT DIURNAL CONVECTION EMBEDDED INTO THE SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW MAKES IT FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. CHANCES DECREASE FURTHER
EAST. IN GENERAL...INSTABILITY INDICATES ROUGHLY 500-1000 J/KG WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 10-20 KTS OVER THE TRIAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THIS OCCURRING IS
FAIRLY LOW BECAUSE THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL CONVECTION WEST OF THE AREA. THAT
BEING SAID...TO PICK A DAY THAT WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
CONVECTION...IT WOULD PROBABLY BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE LOW 80S TO
POSSIBLY LOW 90S IN SOME OF THE WARMER SPOTS. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TEMPERATURES IS RELATED TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE
AS A STRONGER RIDGE WITH LESS CONVECTION WILL YIELD WARMER TEMPS
WHEREAS IF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...MORE CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION
COULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR 90S LATER IN THE WEEK AND RESULT IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER HIGHS. STILL ABOVE NORMAL REGARDLESS. LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND
STRONGLY WESTWARD ACROSS NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE ALOFT... DRY
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS AND JUST OFFSHORE.
SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH BASES WELL
ABOVE 4KFT AGL. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SSW AT 7-10
KTS BY 15Z... THEN DROP BACK BELOW 7 KTS BY 00Z TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY MON MORNING: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AT INT/GSO
AND PERHAPS RDU LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING (08Z-13Z) AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN TERMINALS THEN SPREADS SLOWLY
EASTWARD. WILL THEN HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS
LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO. A FEW SHOWERS/
STORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WED AND THU
AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO... BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240635
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 AM SUNDAY...

VERY QUIET AND SEASONABLE TODAY/TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND BACK WESTWARD OVER
VA/NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE HEIGHTS RISE STEADILY OVER AND JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. PRECIP WATER IS EXPECTED TO SIT CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS... INCREASING A BIT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...
HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH A STABLE LAYER JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER TOP. A COUPLE SETS OF
MODEL OUTPUT INCLUDING THE 3KM NAMRR CONUS NEST AND NCAR WRF
ENSEMBLE PLUS THE WRF-HEAVY SREF MEAN SUPPORT ISOLATED LATE DAY
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN... A BIT MORE NUMEROUS ALONG THE
INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE IN THE FAR SE (SAMPSON CO AND SE WAYNE CO).
BUT THESE PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT WE`LL
SEE MUCH IF ANY BUOYANCY ALOFT... SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BE
QUITE SHALLOW... PLUS THE GFS REMAINS DRY. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST
DRY... BUT LOCATIONS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
WITH COVERAGE UNDER 10%. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND FAIR
SKIES TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES JUST AROUND 10 M BELOW NORMAL
WILL BE OFFSET BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE... YIELDING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...
WITH HIGHS 80-84 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...

MORE OF THE SAME FOR MEMORIAL DAY... EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER. MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST...
WHILE SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS NC. PW INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND
WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND 850 MB... AS WELL AS A FEW
HIGH THIN CLOUDS EMANATING FROM SRN PLAINS CONVECTION. DRY WEATHER
IS STILL EXPECTED. MODELS HINT AT A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF SC AND SW NC LATE IN THE DAY... HOWEVER WEAK AND
MEANDERING STEERING FLOW WILL ENSURE THAT THESE HOLD OUT OF OUR CWA.
THE LOW LEVEL DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE EXPECTED SUPPORTS HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE MID 60S MON NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF STRATUS
ESPECIALLY WEST LATE AT NIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING UP A BIT FROM THE
SSW AT 5-8 MPH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR FOR THE LONG TERM
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA
WITH A SURFACE HIGH OFF OF THE COAST. IF ANYTHING HAS CHANGED IN THE
FORECAST...IT IS THAT DIURNAL CONVECTION EMBEDDED INTO THE SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW MAKES IT FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. CHANCES DECREASE FURTHER
EAST. IN GENERAL...INSTABILITY INDICATES ROUGHLY 500-1000 J/KG WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 10-20 KTS OVER THE TRIAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THIS OCCURRING IS
FAIRLY LOW BECAUSE THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL CONVECTION WEST OF THE AREA. THAT
BEING SAID...TO PICK A DAY THAT WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
CONVECTION...IT WOULD PROBABLY BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE LOW 80S TO
POSSIBLY LOW 90S IN SOME OF THE WARMER SPOTS. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TEMPERATURES IS RELATED TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE
AS A STRONGER RIDGE WITH LESS CONVECTION WILL YIELD WARMER TEMPS
WHEREAS IF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...MORE CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION
COULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR 90S LATER IN THE WEEK AND RESULT IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER HIGHS. STILL ABOVE NORMAL REGARDLESS. LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND
STRONGLY WESTWARD ACROSS NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE ALOFT... DRY
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS AND JUST OFFSHORE.
SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH BASES WELL
ABOVE 4KFT AGL. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SSW AT 7-10
KTS BY 15Z... THEN DROP BACK BELOW 7 KTS BY 00Z TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY MON MORNING: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AT INT/GSO
AND PERHAPS RDU LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING (08Z-13Z) AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN TERMINALS THEN SPREADS SLOWLY
EASTWARD. WILL THEN HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS
LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO. A FEW SHOWERS/
STORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WED AND THU
AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO... BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 240635
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 AM SUNDAY...

VERY QUIET AND SEASONABLE TODAY/TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND BACK WESTWARD OVER
VA/NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE HEIGHTS RISE STEADILY OVER AND JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. PRECIP WATER IS EXPECTED TO SIT CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS... INCREASING A BIT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...
HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH A STABLE LAYER JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER TOP. A COUPLE SETS OF
MODEL OUTPUT INCLUDING THE 3KM NAMRR CONUS NEST AND NCAR WRF
ENSEMBLE PLUS THE WRF-HEAVY SREF MEAN SUPPORT ISOLATED LATE DAY
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN... A BIT MORE NUMEROUS ALONG THE
INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE IN THE FAR SE (SAMPSON CO AND SE WAYNE CO).
BUT THESE PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT WE`LL
SEE MUCH IF ANY BUOYANCY ALOFT... SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BE
QUITE SHALLOW... PLUS THE GFS REMAINS DRY. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST
DRY... BUT LOCATIONS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
WITH COVERAGE UNDER 10%. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND FAIR
SKIES TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES JUST AROUND 10 M BELOW NORMAL
WILL BE OFFSET BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE... YIELDING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...
WITH HIGHS 80-84 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...

MORE OF THE SAME FOR MEMORIAL DAY... EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER. MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST...
WHILE SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS NC. PW INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND
WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND 850 MB... AS WELL AS A FEW
HIGH THIN CLOUDS EMANATING FROM SRN PLAINS CONVECTION. DRY WEATHER
IS STILL EXPECTED. MODELS HINT AT A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF SC AND SW NC LATE IN THE DAY... HOWEVER WEAK AND
MEANDERING STEERING FLOW WILL ENSURE THAT THESE HOLD OUT OF OUR CWA.
THE LOW LEVEL DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE EXPECTED SUPPORTS HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE MID 60S MON NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF STRATUS
ESPECIALLY WEST LATE AT NIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING UP A BIT FROM THE
SSW AT 5-8 MPH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR FOR THE LONG TERM
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA
WITH A SURFACE HIGH OFF OF THE COAST. IF ANYTHING HAS CHANGED IN THE
FORECAST...IT IS THAT DIURNAL CONVECTION EMBEDDED INTO THE SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW MAKES IT FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. CHANCES DECREASE FURTHER
EAST. IN GENERAL...INSTABILITY INDICATES ROUGHLY 500-1000 J/KG WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 10-20 KTS OVER THE TRIAD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THIS OCCURRING IS
FAIRLY LOW BECAUSE THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL CONVECTION WEST OF THE AREA. THAT
BEING SAID...TO PICK A DAY THAT WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
CONVECTION...IT WOULD PROBABLY BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE LOW 80S TO
POSSIBLY LOW 90S IN SOME OF THE WARMER SPOTS. UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TEMPERATURES IS RELATED TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE
AS A STRONGER RIDGE WITH LESS CONVECTION WILL YIELD WARMER TEMPS
WHEREAS IF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...MORE CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION
COULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR 90S LATER IN THE WEEK AND RESULT IN
SOMEWHAT COOLER HIGHS. STILL ABOVE NORMAL REGARDLESS. LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND
STRONGLY WESTWARD ACROSS NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE ALOFT... DRY
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS AND JUST OFFSHORE.
SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH BASES WELL
ABOVE 4KFT AGL. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SSW AT 7-10
KTS BY 15Z... THEN DROP BACK BELOW 7 KTS BY 00Z TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY MON MORNING: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AT INT/GSO
AND PERHAPS RDU LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING (08Z-13Z) AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN TERMINALS THEN SPREADS SLOWLY
EASTWARD. WILL THEN HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS
LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO. A FEW SHOWERS/
STORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WED AND THU
AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO... BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 240603
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
202 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 AM SUNDAY...

VERY QUIET AND SEASONABLE TODAY/TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND BACK WESTWARD OVER
VA/NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE HEIGHTS RISE STEADILY OVER AND JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. PRECIP WATER IS EXPECTED TO SIT CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS... INCREASING A BIT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...
HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH A STABLE LAYER JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER TOP. A COUPLE SETS OF
MODEL OUTPUT INCLUDING THE 3KM NAMRR CONUS NEST AND NCAR WRF
ENSEMBLE PLUS THE WRF-HEAVY SREF MEAN SUPPORT ISOLATED LATE DAY
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN... A BIT MORE NUMEROUS ALONG THE
INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE IN THE FAR SE (SAMPSON CO AND SE WAYNE CO).
BUT THESE PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT WE`LL
SEE MUCH IF ANY BUOYANCY ALOFT... SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BE
QUITE SHALLOW... PLUS THE GFS REMAINS DRY. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST
DRY... BUT LOCATIONS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
WITH COVERAGE UNDER 10%. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND FAIR
SKIES TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES JUST AROUND 10 M BELOW NORMAL
WILL BE OFFSET BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE... YIELDING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...
WITH HIGHS 80-84 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...

MORE OF THE SAME FOR MEMORIAL DAY... EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER. MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST...
WHILE SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS NC. PW INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND
WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND 850 MB... AS WELL AS A FEW
HIGH THIN CLOUDS EMANATING FROM SRN PLAINS CONVECTION. DRY WEATHER
IS STILL EXPECTED. MODELS HINT AT A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF SC AND SW NC LATE IN THE DAY... HOWEVER WEAK AND
MEANDERING STEERING FLOW WILL ENSURE THAT THESE HOLD OUT OF OUR CWA.
THE LOW LEVEL DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE EXPECTED SUPPORTS HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE MID 60S MON NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF STRATUS
ESPECIALLY WEST LATE AT NIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING UP A BIT FROM THE
SSW AT 5-8 MPH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...

STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL LIKELY MAX OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST MODELS. A DRY AND VERY WARM PERIOD WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK... BUT ANY FRONTAL
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLOCKED TO OUR WEST DUE TO THE
LINGERING UPPER RIDGING. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH 90
OVER SOME AREAS... MOST LIKELY THE SANDHILLS... WITH MID TO UPPER
80S COMMON ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE 60S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND
STRONGLY WESTWARD ACROSS NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE ALOFT... DRY
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS AND JUST OFFSHORE.
SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH BASES WELL
ABOVE 4KFT AGL. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SSW AT 7-10
KTS BY 15Z... THEN DROP BACK BELOW 7 KTS BY 00Z TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY MON MORNING: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AT INT/GSO
AND PERHAPS RDU LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING (08Z-13Z) AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN TERMINALS THEN SPREADS SLOWLY
EASTWARD. WILL THEN HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS
LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO. A FEW SHOWERS/
STORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WED AND THU
AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO... BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 240603
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
202 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 AM SUNDAY...

VERY QUIET AND SEASONABLE TODAY/TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND BACK WESTWARD OVER
VA/NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE HEIGHTS RISE STEADILY OVER AND JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. PRECIP WATER IS EXPECTED TO SIT CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS... INCREASING A BIT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...
HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH A STABLE LAYER JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER TOP. A COUPLE SETS OF
MODEL OUTPUT INCLUDING THE 3KM NAMRR CONUS NEST AND NCAR WRF
ENSEMBLE PLUS THE WRF-HEAVY SREF MEAN SUPPORT ISOLATED LATE DAY
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN... A BIT MORE NUMEROUS ALONG THE
INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE IN THE FAR SE (SAMPSON CO AND SE WAYNE CO).
BUT THESE PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT WE`LL
SEE MUCH IF ANY BUOYANCY ALOFT... SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BE
QUITE SHALLOW... PLUS THE GFS REMAINS DRY. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST
DRY... BUT LOCATIONS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
WITH COVERAGE UNDER 10%. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND FAIR
SKIES TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES JUST AROUND 10 M BELOW NORMAL
WILL BE OFFSET BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE... YIELDING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...
WITH HIGHS 80-84 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...

MORE OF THE SAME FOR MEMORIAL DAY... EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER. MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST...
WHILE SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS NC. PW INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND
WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND 850 MB... AS WELL AS A FEW
HIGH THIN CLOUDS EMANATING FROM SRN PLAINS CONVECTION. DRY WEATHER
IS STILL EXPECTED. MODELS HINT AT A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF SC AND SW NC LATE IN THE DAY... HOWEVER WEAK AND
MEANDERING STEERING FLOW WILL ENSURE THAT THESE HOLD OUT OF OUR CWA.
THE LOW LEVEL DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE EXPECTED SUPPORTS HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE MID 60S MON NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF STRATUS
ESPECIALLY WEST LATE AT NIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING UP A BIT FROM THE
SSW AT 5-8 MPH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...

STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL LIKELY MAX OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST MODELS. A DRY AND VERY WARM PERIOD WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK... BUT ANY FRONTAL
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLOCKED TO OUR WEST DUE TO THE
LINGERING UPPER RIDGING. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH 90
OVER SOME AREAS... MOST LIKELY THE SANDHILLS... WITH MID TO UPPER
80S COMMON ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE 60S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND
STRONGLY WESTWARD ACROSS NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE ALOFT... DRY
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS AND JUST OFFSHORE.
SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH BASES WELL
ABOVE 4KFT AGL. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SSW AT 7-10
KTS BY 15Z... THEN DROP BACK BELOW 7 KTS BY 00Z TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY MON MORNING: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AT INT/GSO
AND PERHAPS RDU LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING (08Z-13Z) AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN TERMINALS THEN SPREADS SLOWLY
EASTWARD. WILL THEN HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS
LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO. A FEW SHOWERS/
STORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WED AND THU
AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO... BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240603
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
202 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 AM SUNDAY...

VERY QUIET AND SEASONABLE TODAY/TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND BACK WESTWARD OVER
VA/NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE HEIGHTS RISE STEADILY OVER AND JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. PRECIP WATER IS EXPECTED TO SIT CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS... INCREASING A BIT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...
HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH A STABLE LAYER JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER TOP. A COUPLE SETS OF
MODEL OUTPUT INCLUDING THE 3KM NAMRR CONUS NEST AND NCAR WRF
ENSEMBLE PLUS THE WRF-HEAVY SREF MEAN SUPPORT ISOLATED LATE DAY
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN... A BIT MORE NUMEROUS ALONG THE
INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE IN THE FAR SE (SAMPSON CO AND SE WAYNE CO).
BUT THESE PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT WE`LL
SEE MUCH IF ANY BUOYANCY ALOFT... SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BE
QUITE SHALLOW... PLUS THE GFS REMAINS DRY. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST
DRY... BUT LOCATIONS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
WITH COVERAGE UNDER 10%. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND FAIR
SKIES TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES JUST AROUND 10 M BELOW NORMAL
WILL BE OFFSET BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE... YIELDING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...
WITH HIGHS 80-84 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...

MORE OF THE SAME FOR MEMORIAL DAY... EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER. MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST...
WHILE SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS NC. PW INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND
WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND 850 MB... AS WELL AS A FEW
HIGH THIN CLOUDS EMANATING FROM SRN PLAINS CONVECTION. DRY WEATHER
IS STILL EXPECTED. MODELS HINT AT A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF SC AND SW NC LATE IN THE DAY... HOWEVER WEAK AND
MEANDERING STEERING FLOW WILL ENSURE THAT THESE HOLD OUT OF OUR CWA.
THE LOW LEVEL DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE EXPECTED SUPPORTS HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE MID 60S MON NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF STRATUS
ESPECIALLY WEST LATE AT NIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING UP A BIT FROM THE
SSW AT 5-8 MPH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...

STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL LIKELY MAX OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST MODELS. A DRY AND VERY WARM PERIOD WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK... BUT ANY FRONTAL
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLOCKED TO OUR WEST DUE TO THE
LINGERING UPPER RIDGING. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH 90
OVER SOME AREAS... MOST LIKELY THE SANDHILLS... WITH MID TO UPPER
80S COMMON ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE 60S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND
STRONGLY WESTWARD ACROSS NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE ALOFT... DRY
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS AND JUST OFFSHORE.
SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH BASES WELL
ABOVE 4KFT AGL. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SSW AT 7-10
KTS BY 15Z... THEN DROP BACK BELOW 7 KTS BY 00Z TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY MON MORNING: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AT INT/GSO
AND PERHAPS RDU LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING (08Z-13Z) AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN TERMINALS THEN SPREADS SLOWLY
EASTWARD. WILL THEN HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS
LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO. A FEW SHOWERS/
STORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WED AND THU
AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO... BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 240603
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
202 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 AM SUNDAY...

VERY QUIET AND SEASONABLE TODAY/TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND BACK WESTWARD OVER
VA/NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE HEIGHTS RISE STEADILY OVER AND JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. PRECIP WATER IS EXPECTED TO SIT CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS... INCREASING A BIT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...
HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH A STABLE LAYER JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER TOP. A COUPLE SETS OF
MODEL OUTPUT INCLUDING THE 3KM NAMRR CONUS NEST AND NCAR WRF
ENSEMBLE PLUS THE WRF-HEAVY SREF MEAN SUPPORT ISOLATED LATE DAY
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN... A BIT MORE NUMEROUS ALONG THE
INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE IN THE FAR SE (SAMPSON CO AND SE WAYNE CO).
BUT THESE PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT WE`LL
SEE MUCH IF ANY BUOYANCY ALOFT... SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BE
QUITE SHALLOW... PLUS THE GFS REMAINS DRY. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST
DRY... BUT LOCATIONS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
WITH COVERAGE UNDER 10%. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND FAIR
SKIES TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES JUST AROUND 10 M BELOW NORMAL
WILL BE OFFSET BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE... YIELDING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...
WITH HIGHS 80-84 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...

MORE OF THE SAME FOR MEMORIAL DAY... EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER. MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST...
WHILE SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS NC. PW INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND
WE SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS AROUND 850 MB... AS WELL AS A FEW
HIGH THIN CLOUDS EMANATING FROM SRN PLAINS CONVECTION. DRY WEATHER
IS STILL EXPECTED. MODELS HINT AT A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF SC AND SW NC LATE IN THE DAY... HOWEVER WEAK AND
MEANDERING STEERING FLOW WILL ENSURE THAT THESE HOLD OUT OF OUR CWA.
THE LOW LEVEL DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE EXPECTED SUPPORTS HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE MID 60S MON NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF STRATUS
ESPECIALLY WEST LATE AT NIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING UP A BIT FROM THE
SSW AT 5-8 MPH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...

STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL LIKELY MAX OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST MODELS. A DRY AND VERY WARM PERIOD WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK... BUT ANY FRONTAL
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLOCKED TO OUR WEST DUE TO THE
LINGERING UPPER RIDGING. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH 90
OVER SOME AREAS... MOST LIKELY THE SANDHILLS... WITH MID TO UPPER
80S COMMON ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE 60S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND
STRONGLY WESTWARD ACROSS NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE ALOFT... DRY
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS AND JUST OFFSHORE.
SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH BASES WELL
ABOVE 4KFT AGL. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SSW AT 7-10
KTS BY 15Z... THEN DROP BACK BELOW 7 KTS BY 00Z TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY MON MORNING: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AT INT/GSO
AND PERHAPS RDU LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING (08Z-13Z) AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN TERMINALS THEN SPREADS SLOWLY
EASTWARD. WILL THEN HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS
LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO. A FEW SHOWERS/
STORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WED AND THU
AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO... BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240542
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
142 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 AM SUNDAY...

VERY QUIET AND SEASONABLE TODAY/TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND BACK WESTWARD OVER
VA/NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE HEIGHTS RISE STEADILY OVER AND JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. PRECIP WATER IS EXPECTED TO SIT CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS... INCREASING A BIT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...
HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH A STABLE LAYER JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER TOP. A COUPLE SETS OF
MODEL OUTPUT INCLUDING THE 3KM NAMRR CONUS NEST AND NCAR WRF
ENSEMBLE PLUS THE WRF-HEAVY SREF MEAN SUPPORT ISOLATED LATE DAY
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN... A BIT MORE NUMEROUS ALONG THE
INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE IN THE FAR SE (SAMPSON CO AND SW WAYNE CO).
BUT THESE PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT WE`LL
SEE MUCH IF ANY BUOYANCY ALOFT... SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BE
QUITE SHALLOW... PLUS THE GFS REMAINS DRY. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST
DRY... BUT LOCATIONS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
WITH COVERAGE UNDER 10%. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND FAIR
SKIES TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES JUST AROUND 10 M BELOW NORMAL
WILL BE OFFSET BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE... YIELDING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...
WITH HIGHS 80-84 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...

STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL LIKELY MAX OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST MODELS. A DRY AND VERY WARM PERIOD WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK... BUT ANY FRONTAL
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLOCKED TO OUR WEST DUE TO THE
LINGERING UPPER RIDGING. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH 90
OVER SOME AREAS... MOST LIKELY THE SANDHILLS... WITH MID TO UPPER
80S COMMON ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE 60S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND
STRONGLY WESTWARD ACROSS NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE ALOFT... DRY
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS AND JUST OFFSHORE.
SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH BASES WELL
ABOVE 4KFT AGL. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SSW AT 7-10
KTS BY 15Z... THEN DROP BACK BELOW 7 KTS BY 00Z TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY MON MORNING: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AT INT/GSO
AND PERHAPS RDU LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING (08Z-13Z) AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN TERMINALS THEN SPREADS SLOWLY
EASTWARD. WILL THEN HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS
LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO. A FEW SHOWERS/
STORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WED AND THU
AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO... BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240542
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
142 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 AM SUNDAY...

VERY QUIET AND SEASONABLE TODAY/TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND BACK WESTWARD OVER
VA/NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE HEIGHTS RISE STEADILY OVER AND JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. PRECIP WATER IS EXPECTED TO SIT CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS... INCREASING A BIT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...
HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH A STABLE LAYER JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER TOP. A COUPLE SETS OF
MODEL OUTPUT INCLUDING THE 3KM NAMRR CONUS NEST AND NCAR WRF
ENSEMBLE PLUS THE WRF-HEAVY SREF MEAN SUPPORT ISOLATED LATE DAY
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN... A BIT MORE NUMEROUS ALONG THE
INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE IN THE FAR SE (SAMPSON CO AND SW WAYNE CO).
BUT THESE PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT WE`LL
SEE MUCH IF ANY BUOYANCY ALOFT... SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BE
QUITE SHALLOW... PLUS THE GFS REMAINS DRY. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST
DRY... BUT LOCATIONS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
WITH COVERAGE UNDER 10%. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND FAIR
SKIES TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES JUST AROUND 10 M BELOW NORMAL
WILL BE OFFSET BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE... YIELDING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...
WITH HIGHS 80-84 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...

STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL LIKELY MAX OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST MODELS. A DRY AND VERY WARM PERIOD WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK... BUT ANY FRONTAL
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLOCKED TO OUR WEST DUE TO THE
LINGERING UPPER RIDGING. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH 90
OVER SOME AREAS... MOST LIKELY THE SANDHILLS... WITH MID TO UPPER
80S COMMON ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE 60S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND
STRONGLY WESTWARD ACROSS NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE ALOFT... DRY
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS AND JUST OFFSHORE.
SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH BASES WELL
ABOVE 4KFT AGL. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SSW AT 7-10
KTS BY 15Z... THEN DROP BACK BELOW 7 KTS BY 00Z TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY MON MORNING: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AT INT/GSO
AND PERHAPS RDU LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING (08Z-13Z) AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN TERMINALS THEN SPREADS SLOWLY
EASTWARD. WILL THEN HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS
LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO. A FEW SHOWERS/
STORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WED AND THU
AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO... BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240542
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
142 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 AM SUNDAY...

VERY QUIET AND SEASONABLE TODAY/TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND BACK WESTWARD OVER
VA/NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE HEIGHTS RISE STEADILY OVER AND JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. PRECIP WATER IS EXPECTED TO SIT CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS... INCREASING A BIT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...
HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH A STABLE LAYER JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER TOP. A COUPLE SETS OF
MODEL OUTPUT INCLUDING THE 3KM NAMRR CONUS NEST AND NCAR WRF
ENSEMBLE PLUS THE WRF-HEAVY SREF MEAN SUPPORT ISOLATED LATE DAY
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN... A BIT MORE NUMEROUS ALONG THE
INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE IN THE FAR SE (SAMPSON CO AND SW WAYNE CO).
BUT THESE PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT WE`LL
SEE MUCH IF ANY BUOYANCY ALOFT... SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BE
QUITE SHALLOW... PLUS THE GFS REMAINS DRY. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST
DRY... BUT LOCATIONS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
WITH COVERAGE UNDER 10%. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND FAIR
SKIES TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES JUST AROUND 10 M BELOW NORMAL
WILL BE OFFSET BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE... YIELDING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...
WITH HIGHS 80-84 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...

STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL LIKELY MAX OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST MODELS. A DRY AND VERY WARM PERIOD WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK... BUT ANY FRONTAL
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLOCKED TO OUR WEST DUE TO THE
LINGERING UPPER RIDGING. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH 90
OVER SOME AREAS... MOST LIKELY THE SANDHILLS... WITH MID TO UPPER
80S COMMON ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE 60S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND
STRONGLY WESTWARD ACROSS NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE ALOFT... DRY
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS AND JUST OFFSHORE.
SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH BASES WELL
ABOVE 4KFT AGL. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SSW AT 7-10
KTS BY 15Z... THEN DROP BACK BELOW 7 KTS BY 00Z TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY MON MORNING: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AT INT/GSO
AND PERHAPS RDU LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING (08Z-13Z) AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN TERMINALS THEN SPREADS SLOWLY
EASTWARD. WILL THEN HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS
LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO. A FEW SHOWERS/
STORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WED AND THU
AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO... BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 240542
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
142 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 AM SUNDAY...

VERY QUIET AND SEASONABLE TODAY/TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND BACK WESTWARD OVER
VA/NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE HEIGHTS RISE STEADILY OVER AND JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. PRECIP WATER IS EXPECTED TO SIT CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS... INCREASING A BIT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...
HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH A STABLE LAYER JUST ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER TOP. A COUPLE SETS OF
MODEL OUTPUT INCLUDING THE 3KM NAMRR CONUS NEST AND NCAR WRF
ENSEMBLE PLUS THE WRF-HEAVY SREF MEAN SUPPORT ISOLATED LATE DAY
CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN... A BIT MORE NUMEROUS ALONG THE
INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE IN THE FAR SE (SAMPSON CO AND SW WAYNE CO).
BUT THESE PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AND IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT WE`LL
SEE MUCH IF ANY BUOYANCY ALOFT... SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BE
QUITE SHALLOW... PLUS THE GFS REMAINS DRY. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST
DRY... BUT LOCATIONS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
WITH COVERAGE UNDER 10%. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND FAIR
SKIES TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES JUST AROUND 10 M BELOW NORMAL
WILL BE OFFSET BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE... YIELDING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...
WITH HIGHS 80-84 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...

STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL LIKELY MAX OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST MODELS. A DRY AND VERY WARM PERIOD WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK... BUT ANY FRONTAL
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLOCKED TO OUR WEST DUE TO THE
LINGERING UPPER RIDGING. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH 90
OVER SOME AREAS... MOST LIKELY THE SANDHILLS... WITH MID TO UPPER
80S COMMON ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE 60S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND
STRONGLY WESTWARD ACROSS NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE ALOFT... DRY
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS AND JUST OFFSHORE.
SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH BASES WELL
ABOVE 4KFT AGL. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SSW AT 7-10
KTS BY 15Z... THEN DROP BACK BELOW 7 KTS BY 00Z TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY MON MORNING: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AT INT/GSO
AND PERHAPS RDU LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING (08Z-13Z) AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN TERMINALS THEN SPREADS SLOWLY
EASTWARD. WILL THEN HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS
LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO. A FEW SHOWERS/
STORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WED AND THU
AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO... BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 240454
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1255 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST OFF DELMARVA. HOWEVER...STRONG UPPER
RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SATELLITE DATA
INDICATED CLEAR SKIES OVER ALL OF NC EXTENDING WEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WHERE A FEW CIRRUS WERE NOTED. WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND MOVING VERY LITTLE... CLEAR CALM
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE THE LOWS THIS MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY 45-50 NORTH AND
LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING EASTWARD TO THE CO FRONT RANGE TONIGHT
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUN/SUN NIGHT...
SHIFTING THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. WITH ONGOING
HEIGHT RISES /SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE/...THE PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE
EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND...HIGHS SUN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS SUN NIGHT
NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...

STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL LIKELY MAX OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST MODELS. A DRY AND VERY WARM PERIOD WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK... BUT ANY FRONTAL
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLOCKED TO OUR WEST DUE TO THE
LINGERING UPPER RIDGING. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH 90
OVER SOME AREAS... MOST LIKELY THE SANDHILLS... WITH MID TO UPPER
80S COMMON ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE 60S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND
STRONGLY WESTWARD ACROSS NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE ALOFT... DRY
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS AND JUST OFFSHORE.
SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH BASES WELL
ABOVE 4KFT AGL. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SSW AT 7-10
KTS BY 15Z... THEN DROP BACK BELOW 7 KTS BY 00Z TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY MON MORNING: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AT INT/GSO
AND PERHAPS RDU LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING (08Z-13Z) AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN TERMINALS THEN SPREADS SLOWLY
EASTWARD. WILL THEN HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS
LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO. A FEW SHOWERS/
STORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WED AND THU
AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO... BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 240454
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1255 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND DRY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST OFF DELMARVA. HOWEVER...STRONG UPPER
RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SATELLITE DATA
INDICATED CLEAR SKIES OVER ALL OF NC EXTENDING WEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WHERE A FEW CIRRUS WERE NOTED. WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND MOVING VERY LITTLE... CLEAR CALM
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE THE LOWS THIS MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY 45-50 NORTH AND
LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING EASTWARD TO THE CO FRONT RANGE TONIGHT
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUN/SUN NIGHT...
SHIFTING THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. WITH ONGOING
HEIGHT RISES /SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE/...THE PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE
EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND...HIGHS SUN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS SUN NIGHT
NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...

STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL LIKELY MAX OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST MODELS. A DRY AND VERY WARM PERIOD WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK... BUT ANY FRONTAL
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLOCKED TO OUR WEST DUE TO THE
LINGERING UPPER RIDGING. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH 90
OVER SOME AREAS... MOST LIKELY THE SANDHILLS... WITH MID TO UPPER
80S COMMON ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE 60S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND
STRONGLY WESTWARD ACROSS NC THROUGH TONIGHT... WHILE ALOFT... DRY
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS AND JUST OFFSHORE.
SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH BASES WELL
ABOVE 4KFT AGL. SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SSW AT 7-10
KTS BY 15Z... THEN DROP BACK BELOW 7 KTS BY 00Z TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY MON MORNING: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS AT INT/GSO
AND PERHAPS RDU LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING (08Z-13Z) AS
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN TERMINALS THEN SPREADS SLOWLY
EASTWARD. WILL THEN HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS
LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO. A FEW SHOWERS/
STORMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WED AND THU
AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO... BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240131
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
930 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST OFF DELMARVA. HOWEVER...STRONG UPPER
RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SATELLITE DATA
INDICATED CLEAR SKIES OVER ALL OF NC EXTENDING WEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WHERE A FEW CIRRUS WERE NOTED. WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND MOVING VERY LITTLE... CLEAR CALM
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE THE LOWS THIS MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY 45-50 NORTH AND
LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING EASTWARD TO THE CO FRONT RANGE TONIGHT
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUN/SUN NIGHT...
SHIFTING THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. WITH ONGOING
HEIGHT RISES /SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE/...THE PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE
EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND...HIGHS SUN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS SUN NIGHT
NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...

STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL LIKELY MAX OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST MODELS. A DRY AND VERY WARM PERIOD WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK... BUT ANY FRONTAL
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLOCKED TO OUR WEST DUE TO THE
LINGERING UPPER RIDGING. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH 90
OVER SOME AREAS... MOST LIKELY THE SANDHILLS... WITH MID TO UPPER
80S COMMON ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE 60S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 820 PM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24
HOUR TAF PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TO
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FOR SUNDAY IN THE 7 TO 10 KT
RANGE... WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES (VFR).

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AND A SFC RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A POTENTIAL
FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS (MVFR/IFR CEILINGS) AND ISOLD
AFT/EVE CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASE BY MID/LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER
OFFSHORE...AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 240131
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
930 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST OFF DELMARVA. HOWEVER...STRONG UPPER
RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SATELLITE DATA
INDICATED CLEAR SKIES OVER ALL OF NC EXTENDING WEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WHERE A FEW CIRRUS WERE NOTED. WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND MOVING VERY LITTLE... CLEAR CALM
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE THE LOWS THIS MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY 45-50 NORTH AND
LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING EASTWARD TO THE CO FRONT RANGE TONIGHT
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUN/SUN NIGHT...
SHIFTING THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. WITH ONGOING
HEIGHT RISES /SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE/...THE PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE
EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND...HIGHS SUN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS SUN NIGHT
NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...

STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL LIKELY MAX OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST MODELS. A DRY AND VERY WARM PERIOD WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK... BUT ANY FRONTAL
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLOCKED TO OUR WEST DUE TO THE
LINGERING UPPER RIDGING. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH 90
OVER SOME AREAS... MOST LIKELY THE SANDHILLS... WITH MID TO UPPER
80S COMMON ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE 60S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 820 PM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24
HOUR TAF PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TO
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FOR SUNDAY IN THE 7 TO 10 KT
RANGE... WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES (VFR).

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AND A SFC RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A POTENTIAL
FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS (MVFR/IFR CEILINGS) AND ISOLD
AFT/EVE CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASE BY MID/LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER
OFFSHORE...AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240131
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
930 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST OFF DELMARVA. HOWEVER...STRONG UPPER
RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SATELLITE DATA
INDICATED CLEAR SKIES OVER ALL OF NC EXTENDING WEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WHERE A FEW CIRRUS WERE NOTED. WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND MOVING VERY LITTLE... CLEAR CALM
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE THE LOWS THIS MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY 45-50 NORTH AND
LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING EASTWARD TO THE CO FRONT RANGE TONIGHT
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUN/SUN NIGHT...
SHIFTING THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. WITH ONGOING
HEIGHT RISES /SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE/...THE PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE
EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND...HIGHS SUN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS SUN NIGHT
NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...

STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL LIKELY MAX OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST MODELS. A DRY AND VERY WARM PERIOD WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK... BUT ANY FRONTAL
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLOCKED TO OUR WEST DUE TO THE
LINGERING UPPER RIDGING. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH 90
OVER SOME AREAS... MOST LIKELY THE SANDHILLS... WITH MID TO UPPER
80S COMMON ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE 60S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 820 PM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24
HOUR TAF PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TO
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FOR SUNDAY IN THE 7 TO 10 KT
RANGE... WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES (VFR).

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AND A SFC RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A POTENTIAL
FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS (MVFR/IFR CEILINGS) AND ISOLD
AFT/EVE CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASE BY MID/LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER
OFFSHORE...AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 240131
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
930 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST OFF DELMARVA. HOWEVER...STRONG UPPER
RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SATELLITE DATA
INDICATED CLEAR SKIES OVER ALL OF NC EXTENDING WEST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WHERE A FEW CIRRUS WERE NOTED. WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND MOVING VERY LITTLE... CLEAR CALM
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE THE LOWS THIS MORNING. EXPECT MOSTLY 45-50 NORTH AND
LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING EASTWARD TO THE CO FRONT RANGE TONIGHT
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUN/SUN NIGHT...
SHIFTING THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. WITH ONGOING
HEIGHT RISES /SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE/...THE PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE
EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND...HIGHS SUN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS SUN NIGHT
NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...

STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL LIKELY MAX OUT EARLY IN THE WEEK ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST MODELS. A DRY AND VERY WARM PERIOD WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK... BUT ANY FRONTAL
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLOCKED TO OUR WEST DUE TO THE
LINGERING UPPER RIDGING. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH 90
OVER SOME AREAS... MOST LIKELY THE SANDHILLS... WITH MID TO UPPER
80S COMMON ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE 60S CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 820 PM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24
HOUR TAF PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TO
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FOR SUNDAY IN THE 7 TO 10 KT
RANGE... WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES (VFR).

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AND A SFC RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A POTENTIAL
FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS (MVFR/IFR CEILINGS) AND ISOLD
AFT/EVE CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASE BY MID/LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER
OFFSHORE...AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240046
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
844 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN VICINITY OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION AT 15Z TODAY
WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO THE CO FRONT RANGE BY 12Z SUN.
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE UPPER LOW WILL AID INITIATION OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/ ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE THIS AFT/EVE INTO TONIGHT. THIS...IN TURN...WILL AMPLIFY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND INCREASE HEIGHT
RISES /SUBSIDENCE/ DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.
ACCORDINGLY...A PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE ATTENDANT ~1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE MAINTAINED
OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S FAR NE COASTAL PLAIN TO LOWER 80S SW
PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...COOLEST IN
RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING EASTWARD TO THE CO FRONT RANGE TONIGHT
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUN/SUN NIGHT...
SHIFTING THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. WITH ONGOING
HEIGHT RISES /SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE/...THE PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE
EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND...HIGHS SUN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS SUN NIGHT
NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

A VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS COUPLED WITH A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE
LONG TERM WARM AND MOSTLY DRY. MODELS DO DIFFER THOUGH WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW ADVANCING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE HIGH CAUSES THE FRONT
TO DETACH FROM THE PARENT LOW AND STALLS IT OVER THE APPALACHIANS
FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT...DIURNAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD IN THE TRIAD BUT SOME MODELS KEEP THE
ENTIRE CWA DRY THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE
GFS (THE WETTER SOLUTION) SHOW SOME INSTABILITY EACH
AFTERNOON...HINTING THAT IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION THUNDER WOULD AT
LEAST BE POSSIBLE...EVEN IF STORMS ARE NOT VERY STRONG DUE TO LACK
OF FORCING.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT.
STILL EXPECTING A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT CHANCES FOR SOME 90S ARE
BECOMING LESS LIKELY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 820 PM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24
HOUR TAF PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TO
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FOR SUNDAY IN THE 7 TO 10 KT
RANGE... WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES (VFR).

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AND A SFC RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A POTENTIAL
FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS (MVFR/IFR CEILINGS) AND ISOLD
AFT/EVE CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASE BY MID/LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER
OFFSHORE...AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240046
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
844 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN VICINITY OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION AT 15Z TODAY
WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO THE CO FRONT RANGE BY 12Z SUN.
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE UPPER LOW WILL AID INITIATION OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/ ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE THIS AFT/EVE INTO TONIGHT. THIS...IN TURN...WILL AMPLIFY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND INCREASE HEIGHT
RISES /SUBSIDENCE/ DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.
ACCORDINGLY...A PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE ATTENDANT ~1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE MAINTAINED
OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S FAR NE COASTAL PLAIN TO LOWER 80S SW
PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...COOLEST IN
RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING EASTWARD TO THE CO FRONT RANGE TONIGHT
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUN/SUN NIGHT...
SHIFTING THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. WITH ONGOING
HEIGHT RISES /SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE/...THE PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE
EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND...HIGHS SUN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS SUN NIGHT
NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

A VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS COUPLED WITH A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE
LONG TERM WARM AND MOSTLY DRY. MODELS DO DIFFER THOUGH WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW ADVANCING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE HIGH CAUSES THE FRONT
TO DETACH FROM THE PARENT LOW AND STALLS IT OVER THE APPALACHIANS
FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT...DIURNAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD IN THE TRIAD BUT SOME MODELS KEEP THE
ENTIRE CWA DRY THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE
GFS (THE WETTER SOLUTION) SHOW SOME INSTABILITY EACH
AFTERNOON...HINTING THAT IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION THUNDER WOULD AT
LEAST BE POSSIBLE...EVEN IF STORMS ARE NOT VERY STRONG DUE TO LACK
OF FORCING.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT.
STILL EXPECTING A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT CHANCES FOR SOME 90S ARE
BECOMING LESS LIKELY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 820 PM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24
HOUR TAF PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT TO
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FOR SUNDAY IN THE 7 TO 10 KT
RANGE... WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES (VFR).

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AND A SFC RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A POTENTIAL
FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS (MVFR/IFR CEILINGS) AND ISOLD
AFT/EVE CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASE BY MID/LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER
OFFSHORE...AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 231823
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
223 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN VICINITY OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION AT 15Z TODAY
WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO THE CO FRONT RANGE BY 12Z SUN.
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE UPPER LOW WILL AID INITIATION OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/ ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE THIS AFT/EVE INTO TONIGHT. THIS...IN TURN...WILL AMPLIFY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND INCREASE HEIGHT
RISES /SUBSIDENCE/ DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.
ACCORDINGLY...A PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE ATTENDANT ~1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE MAINTAINED
OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S FAR NE COASTAL PLAIN TO LOWER 80S SW
PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...COOLEST IN
RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING EASTWARD TO THE CO FRONT RANGE TONIGHT
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUN/SUN NIGHT...
SHIFTING THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. WITH ONGOING
HEIGHT RISES /SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE/...THE PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE
EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND...HIGHS SUN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS SUN NIGHT
NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS COUPLED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE LONG TERM WARM AND MOSTLY DRY.
MODELS DO DIFFER THOUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE EASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE HIGH CAUSES THE FRONT TO DETACH FROM THE
PARENT LOW AND STALLS IT OVER THE APPALACHIANS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS A RESULT...DIURNAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD IN THE TRIAD BUT SOME MODELS KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY THROUGH
THE WHOLE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS (THE WETTER
SOLUTION) SHOW SOME INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON...HINTING THAT IF
THERE IS PRECIPITATION THUNDER WOULD AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE...EVEN IF
STORMS ARE NOT VERY STRONG DUE TO LACK OF FORCING.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT.
STILL EXPECTING A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT CHANCES FOR SOME 90S ARE
BECOMING LESS LIKELY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL RULE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH (THIS AFTERNOON) AND EAST (TONIGHT).

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AND A SFC RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A POTENTIAL
FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS (MVFR/IFR CEILINGS) AND ISOLD
AFT/EVE CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY BY SURELY INCREASE BY MID/LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER
OFFSHORE...AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 231823
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
223 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN VICINITY OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION AT 15Z TODAY
WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO THE CO FRONT RANGE BY 12Z SUN.
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE UPPER LOW WILL AID INITIATION OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/ ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE THIS AFT/EVE INTO TONIGHT. THIS...IN TURN...WILL AMPLIFY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND INCREASE HEIGHT
RISES /SUBSIDENCE/ DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.
ACCORDINGLY...A PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE ATTENDANT ~1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE MAINTAINED
OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S FAR NE COASTAL PLAIN TO LOWER 80S SW
PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...COOLEST IN
RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING EASTWARD TO THE CO FRONT RANGE TONIGHT
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUN/SUN NIGHT...
SHIFTING THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. WITH ONGOING
HEIGHT RISES /SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE/...THE PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE
EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND...HIGHS SUN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS SUN NIGHT
NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS COUPLED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE LONG TERM WARM AND MOSTLY DRY.
MODELS DO DIFFER THOUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE EASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE HIGH CAUSES THE FRONT TO DETACH FROM THE
PARENT LOW AND STALLS IT OVER THE APPALACHIANS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS A RESULT...DIURNAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD IN THE TRIAD BUT SOME MODELS KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY THROUGH
THE WHOLE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS (THE WETTER
SOLUTION) SHOW SOME INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON...HINTING THAT IF
THERE IS PRECIPITATION THUNDER WOULD AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE...EVEN IF
STORMS ARE NOT VERY STRONG DUE TO LACK OF FORCING.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT.
STILL EXPECTING A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT CHANCES FOR SOME 90S ARE
BECOMING LESS LIKELY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL RULE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH (THIS AFTERNOON) AND EAST (TONIGHT).

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AND A SFC RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A POTENTIAL
FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS (MVFR/IFR CEILINGS) AND ISOLD
AFT/EVE CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY BY SURELY INCREASE BY MID/LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER
OFFSHORE...AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 231620
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1220 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN VICINITY OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION AT 15Z TODAY
WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO THE CO FRONT RANGE BY 12Z SUN.
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE UPPER LOW WILL AID INITIATION OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/ ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE THIS AFT/EVE INTO TONIGHT. THIS...IN TURN...WILL AMPLIFY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND INCREASE HEIGHT
RISES /SUBSIDENCE/ DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.
ACCORDINGLY...A PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE ATTENDANT ~1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE MAINTAINED
OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S FAR NE COASTAL PLAIN TO LOWER 80S SW
PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...COOLEST IN
RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING EASTWARD TO THE CO FRONT RANGE TONIGHT
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUN/SUN NIGHT...
SHIFTING THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. WITH ONGOING
HEIGHT RISES /SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE/...THE PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE
EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND...HIGHS SUN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS SUN NIGHT
NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SATURDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS COUPLED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE LONG TERM WARM AND MOSTLY DRY.
MODELS DO DIFFER THOUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE EASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE HIGH CAUSES THE FRONT TO DETACH FROM THE
PARENT LOW AND STALLS IT OVER THE APPALACHIANS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS A RESULT...DIURNAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD IN THE TRIAD BUT SOME MODELS KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY THROUGH
THE WHOLE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS (THE WETTER
SOLUTION) SHOW SOME INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON...HINTING THAT IF
THERE IS PRECIPITATION THUNDER WOULD AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE...EVEN IF
STORMS ARE NOT VERY STRONG DUE TO LACK OF FORCING.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT.
STILL EXPECTING A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT CHANCES FOR SOME 90S ARE
BECOMING LESS LIKELY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL RULE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH (THIS AFTERNOON) AND EAST (TONIGHT).

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AND A SFC RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A POTENTIAL
FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS (MVFR/IFR CEILINGS) AND ISOLD
AFT/EVE CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY BY SURELY INCREASE BY MID/LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER
OFFSHORE...AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 231620
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1220 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN VICINITY OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION AT 15Z TODAY
WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO THE CO FRONT RANGE BY 12Z SUN.
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE UPPER LOW WILL AID INITIATION OF
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/ ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE THIS AFT/EVE INTO TONIGHT. THIS...IN TURN...WILL AMPLIFY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND INCREASE HEIGHT
RISES /SUBSIDENCE/ DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.
ACCORDINGLY...A PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE ATTENDANT ~1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE MAINTAINED
OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN FROM THE EAST TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S FAR NE COASTAL PLAIN TO LOWER 80S SW
PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...COOLEST IN
RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING EASTWARD TO THE CO FRONT RANGE TONIGHT
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUN/SUN NIGHT...
SHIFTING THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TN/OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. WITH ONGOING
HEIGHT RISES /SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE/...THE PRONOUNCED SFC RIDGE
EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
WARMING TREND...HIGHS SUN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS SUN NIGHT
NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SATURDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS COUPLED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE LONG TERM WARM AND MOSTLY DRY.
MODELS DO DIFFER THOUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE EASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE HIGH CAUSES THE FRONT TO DETACH FROM THE
PARENT LOW AND STALLS IT OVER THE APPALACHIANS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS A RESULT...DIURNAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD IN THE TRIAD BUT SOME MODELS KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY THROUGH
THE WHOLE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS (THE WETTER
SOLUTION) SHOW SOME INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON...HINTING THAT IF
THERE IS PRECIPITATION THUNDER WOULD AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE...EVEN IF
STORMS ARE NOT VERY STRONG DUE TO LACK OF FORCING.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT.
STILL EXPECTING A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT CHANCES FOR SOME 90S ARE
BECOMING LESS LIKELY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL RULE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH (THIS AFTERNOON) AND EAST (TONIGHT).

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AND A SFC RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A POTENTIAL
FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS (MVFR/IFR CEILINGS) AND ISOLD
AFT/EVE CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY BY SURELY INCREASE BY MID/LATE NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER
OFFSHORE...AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 231110
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
710 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TODAY AND LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL KICK OFF ON A PLEASANT NOTE WITH UPPER
RIDGING AMPLIFYING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MIGRATING OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
TODAY. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE OUR LAST DAY OF SUB-80 HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AS MOST AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH A
FEW MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. WE WILL COOL OFF NICELY
TONIGHT...WITH EARLY DECOUPLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RADIATE BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 50S BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY IN THE MIDWEST WITH ITS AXIS
SLOWLY PIVOTING EAST. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE ASSUMES
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION ALIGNED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER BUT INITIATING A WARMING TREND AND
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 80 TO 85...NEAR SEASONABLE...WITH MINS SUNDAY NIGHT
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SATURDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS COUPLED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE LONG TERM WARM AND MOSTLY DRY.
MODELS DO DIFFER THOUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE EASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE HIGH CAUSES THE FRONT TO DETACH FROM THE
PARENT LOW AND STALLS IT OVER THE APPALACHIANS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS A RESULT...DIURNAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD IN THE TRIAD BUT SOME MODELS KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY THROUGH
THE WHOLE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS (THE WETTER
SOLUTION) SHOW SOME INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON...HINTING THAT IF
THERE IS PRECIPITATION THUNDER WOULD AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE...EVEN IF
STORMS ARE NOT VERY STRONG DUE TO LACK OF FORCING.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT.
STILL EXPECTING A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT CHANCES FOR SOME 90S ARE
BECOMING LESS LIKELY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY...
SHIFTING TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH A SFC
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...KRD/MLM




000
FXUS62 KRAH 231110
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
710 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TODAY AND LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL KICK OFF ON A PLEASANT NOTE WITH UPPER
RIDGING AMPLIFYING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MIGRATING OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
TODAY. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE OUR LAST DAY OF SUB-80 HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AS MOST AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH A
FEW MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. WE WILL COOL OFF NICELY
TONIGHT...WITH EARLY DECOUPLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RADIATE BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 50S BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY IN THE MIDWEST WITH ITS AXIS
SLOWLY PIVOTING EAST. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE ASSUMES
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION ALIGNED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER BUT INITIATING A WARMING TREND AND
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 80 TO 85...NEAR SEASONABLE...WITH MINS SUNDAY NIGHT
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SATURDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS COUPLED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE LONG TERM WARM AND MOSTLY DRY.
MODELS DO DIFFER THOUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE EASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE HIGH CAUSES THE FRONT TO DETACH FROM THE
PARENT LOW AND STALLS IT OVER THE APPALACHIANS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS A RESULT...DIURNAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD IN THE TRIAD BUT SOME MODELS KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY THROUGH
THE WHOLE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS (THE WETTER
SOLUTION) SHOW SOME INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON...HINTING THAT IF
THERE IS PRECIPITATION THUNDER WOULD AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE...EVEN IF
STORMS ARE NOT VERY STRONG DUE TO LACK OF FORCING.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT.
STILL EXPECTING A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT CHANCES FOR SOME 90S ARE
BECOMING LESS LIKELY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY...
SHIFTING TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH A SFC
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...KRD/MLM





000
FXUS62 KRAH 231110
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
710 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TODAY AND LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL KICK OFF ON A PLEASANT NOTE WITH UPPER
RIDGING AMPLIFYING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MIGRATING OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
TODAY. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE OUR LAST DAY OF SUB-80 HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AS MOST AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH A
FEW MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. WE WILL COOL OFF NICELY
TONIGHT...WITH EARLY DECOUPLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RADIATE BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 50S BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY IN THE MIDWEST WITH ITS AXIS
SLOWLY PIVOTING EAST. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE ASSUMES
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION ALIGNED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER BUT INITIATING A WARMING TREND AND
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 80 TO 85...NEAR SEASONABLE...WITH MINS SUNDAY NIGHT
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SATURDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS COUPLED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE LONG TERM WARM AND MOSTLY DRY.
MODELS DO DIFFER THOUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE EASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE HIGH CAUSES THE FRONT TO DETACH FROM THE
PARENT LOW AND STALLS IT OVER THE APPALACHIANS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS A RESULT...DIURNAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD IN THE TRIAD BUT SOME MODELS KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY THROUGH
THE WHOLE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS (THE WETTER
SOLUTION) SHOW SOME INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON...HINTING THAT IF
THERE IS PRECIPITATION THUNDER WOULD AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE...EVEN IF
STORMS ARE NOT VERY STRONG DUE TO LACK OF FORCING.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT.
STILL EXPECTING A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT CHANCES FOR SOME 90S ARE
BECOMING LESS LIKELY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY...
SHIFTING TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH A SFC
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...KRD/MLM





000
FXUS62 KRAH 231110
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
710 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TODAY AND LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL KICK OFF ON A PLEASANT NOTE WITH UPPER
RIDGING AMPLIFYING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MIGRATING OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
TODAY. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE OUR LAST DAY OF SUB-80 HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AS MOST AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH A
FEW MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. WE WILL COOL OFF NICELY
TONIGHT...WITH EARLY DECOUPLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RADIATE BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 50S BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY IN THE MIDWEST WITH ITS AXIS
SLOWLY PIVOTING EAST. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE ASSUMES
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION ALIGNED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER BUT INITIATING A WARMING TREND AND
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 80 TO 85...NEAR SEASONABLE...WITH MINS SUNDAY NIGHT
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SATURDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS COUPLED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE LONG TERM WARM AND MOSTLY DRY.
MODELS DO DIFFER THOUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE EASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE HIGH CAUSES THE FRONT TO DETACH FROM THE
PARENT LOW AND STALLS IT OVER THE APPALACHIANS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS A RESULT...DIURNAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD IN THE TRIAD BUT SOME MODELS KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY THROUGH
THE WHOLE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS (THE WETTER
SOLUTION) SHOW SOME INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON...HINTING THAT IF
THERE IS PRECIPITATION THUNDER WOULD AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE...EVEN IF
STORMS ARE NOT VERY STRONG DUE TO LACK OF FORCING.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT.
STILL EXPECTING A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT CHANCES FOR SOME 90S ARE
BECOMING LESS LIKELY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY...
SHIFTING TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH A SFC
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...KRD/MLM




000
FXUS62 KRAH 230707
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TODAY AND LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL KICK OFF ON A PLEASANT NOTE WITH UPPER
RIDGING AMPLIFYING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MIGRATING OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
TODAY. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE OUR LAST DAY OF SUB-80 HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AS MOST AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH A
FEW MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. WE WILL COOL OFF NICELY
TONIGHT...WITH EARLY DECOUPLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RADIATE BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 50S BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY IN THE MIDWEST WITH ITS AXIS
SLOWLY PIVOTING EAST. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE ASSUMES
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION ALIGNED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER BUT INITIATING A WARMING TREND AND
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 80 TO 85...NEAR SEASONABLE...WITH MINS SUNDAY NIGHT
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SATURDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS COUPLED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE LONG TERM WARM AND MOSTLY DRY.
MODELS DO DIFFER THOUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE EASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE HIGH CAUSES THE FRONT TO DETACH FROM THE
PARENT LOW AND STALLS IT OVER THE APPALACHIANS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS A RESULT...DIURNAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD IN THE TRIAD BUT SOME MODELS KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY THROUGH
THE WHOLE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS (THE WETTER
SOLUTION) SHOW SOME INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON...HINTING THAT IF
THERE IS PRECIPITATION THUNDER WOULD AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE...EVEN IF
STORMS ARE NOT VERY STRONG DUE TO LACK OF FORCING.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT.
STILL EXPECTING A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT CHANCES FOR SOME 90S ARE
BECOMING LESS LIKELY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY...
SHIFTING TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH A SFC
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...KRD/MLM





000
FXUS62 KRAH 230707
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TODAY AND LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL KICK OFF ON A PLEASANT NOTE WITH UPPER
RIDGING AMPLIFYING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MIGRATING OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
TODAY. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE OUR LAST DAY OF SUB-80 HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AS MOST AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH A
FEW MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. WE WILL COOL OFF NICELY
TONIGHT...WITH EARLY DECOUPLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RADIATE BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 50S BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY IN THE MIDWEST WITH ITS AXIS
SLOWLY PIVOTING EAST. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE ASSUMES
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION ALIGNED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER BUT INITIATING A WARMING TREND AND
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 80 TO 85...NEAR SEASONABLE...WITH MINS SUNDAY NIGHT
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SATURDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS COUPLED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE LONG TERM WARM AND MOSTLY DRY.
MODELS DO DIFFER THOUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE EASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE HIGH CAUSES THE FRONT TO DETACH FROM THE
PARENT LOW AND STALLS IT OVER THE APPALACHIANS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS A RESULT...DIURNAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD IN THE TRIAD BUT SOME MODELS KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY THROUGH
THE WHOLE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS (THE WETTER
SOLUTION) SHOW SOME INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON...HINTING THAT IF
THERE IS PRECIPITATION THUNDER WOULD AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE...EVEN IF
STORMS ARE NOT VERY STRONG DUE TO LACK OF FORCING.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT.
STILL EXPECTING A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT CHANCES FOR SOME 90S ARE
BECOMING LESS LIKELY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY...
SHIFTING TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH A SFC
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...KRD/MLM




000
FXUS62 KRAH 230707
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TODAY AND LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL KICK OFF ON A PLEASANT NOTE WITH UPPER
RIDGING AMPLIFYING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MIGRATING OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
TODAY. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE OUR LAST DAY OF SUB-80 HIGH
TEMPERATURES...AS MOST AREAS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH A
FEW MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. WE WILL COOL OFF NICELY
TONIGHT...WITH EARLY DECOUPLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMPS TO
RADIATE BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 50S BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY IN THE MIDWEST WITH ITS AXIS
SLOWLY PIVOTING EAST. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE ASSUMES
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION ALIGNED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER BUT INITIATING A WARMING TREND AND
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM 80 TO 85...NEAR SEASONABLE...WITH MINS SUNDAY NIGHT
AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SATURDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS COUPLED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE LONG TERM WARM AND MOSTLY DRY.
MODELS DO DIFFER THOUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE EASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE HIGH CAUSES THE FRONT TO DETACH FROM THE
PARENT LOW AND STALLS IT OVER THE APPALACHIANS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS A RESULT...DIURNAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD IN THE TRIAD BUT SOME MODELS KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY THROUGH
THE WHOLE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS (THE WETTER
SOLUTION) SHOW SOME INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON...HINTING THAT IF
THERE IS PRECIPITATION THUNDER WOULD AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE...EVEN IF
STORMS ARE NOT VERY STRONG DUE TO LACK OF FORCING.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT.
STILL EXPECTING A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT CHANCES FOR SOME 90S ARE
BECOMING LESS LIKELY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY...
SHIFTING TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH A SFC
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...KRD/MLM




000
FXUS62 KRAH 230629
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
229 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 820 PM FRIDAY...

ONLY A FEW CIRRUS WERE OBSERVED AROUND SUNSET... OTHERWISE THE
SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS NC. SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT ANY
ADDITIONAL CIRRUS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
RURAL NORTHERN PIEDMONT... NEAR 50 IN THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE
AREAS... AND LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AT 15Z) WILL TRACK
EAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE ROCKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT.
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. THIS...IN TURN...WILL
AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN VICINITY
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER
CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S FAR NE COASTAL
PLAIN TO LOWER 80S SW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SATURDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS COUPLED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE LONG TERM WARM AND MOSTLY DRY.
MODELS DO DIFFER THOUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE EASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE HIGH CAUSES THE FRONT TO DETACH FROM THE
PARENT LOW AND STALLS IT OVER THE APPALACHIANS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS A RESULT...DIURNAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD IN THE TRIAD BUT SOME MODELS KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY THROUGH
THE WHOLE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS (THE WETTER
SOLUTION) SHOW SOME INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON...HINTING THAT IF
THERE IS PRECIPITATION THUNDER WOULD AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE...EVEN IF
STORMS ARE NOT VERY STRONG DUE TO LACK OF FORCING.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT.
STILL EXPECTING A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT CHANCES FOR SOME 90S ARE
BECOMING LESS LIKELY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY...
SHIFTING TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH A SFC
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...KRD/MLM




000
FXUS62 KRAH 230629
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
229 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 820 PM FRIDAY...

ONLY A FEW CIRRUS WERE OBSERVED AROUND SUNSET... OTHERWISE THE
SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS NC. SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT ANY
ADDITIONAL CIRRUS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
RURAL NORTHERN PIEDMONT... NEAR 50 IN THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE
AREAS... AND LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AT 15Z) WILL TRACK
EAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE ROCKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT.
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. THIS...IN TURN...WILL
AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN VICINITY
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER
CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S FAR NE COASTAL
PLAIN TO LOWER 80S SW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SATURDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS COUPLED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE LONG TERM WARM AND MOSTLY DRY.
MODELS DO DIFFER THOUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE EASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE HIGH CAUSES THE FRONT TO DETACH FROM THE
PARENT LOW AND STALLS IT OVER THE APPALACHIANS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS A RESULT...DIURNAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD IN THE TRIAD BUT SOME MODELS KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY THROUGH
THE WHOLE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS (THE WETTER
SOLUTION) SHOW SOME INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON...HINTING THAT IF
THERE IS PRECIPITATION THUNDER WOULD AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE...EVEN IF
STORMS ARE NOT VERY STRONG DUE TO LACK OF FORCING.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT.
STILL EXPECTING A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT CHANCES FOR SOME 90S ARE
BECOMING LESS LIKELY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY...
SHIFTING TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH A SFC
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...KRD/MLM





000
FXUS62 KRAH 230629
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
229 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 820 PM FRIDAY...

ONLY A FEW CIRRUS WERE OBSERVED AROUND SUNSET... OTHERWISE THE
SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS NC. SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT ANY
ADDITIONAL CIRRUS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
RURAL NORTHERN PIEDMONT... NEAR 50 IN THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE
AREAS... AND LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AT 15Z) WILL TRACK
EAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE ROCKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT.
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. THIS...IN TURN...WILL
AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN VICINITY
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER
CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S FAR NE COASTAL
PLAIN TO LOWER 80S SW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SATURDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS COUPLED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE LONG TERM WARM AND MOSTLY DRY.
MODELS DO DIFFER THOUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ON THE EASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
ATTACHED TO A SURFACE LOW ADVANCING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE HIGH CAUSES THE FRONT TO DETACH FROM THE
PARENT LOW AND STALLS IT OVER THE APPALACHIANS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS A RESULT...DIURNAL PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD IN THE TRIAD BUT SOME MODELS KEEP THE ENTIRE CWA DRY THROUGH
THE WHOLE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THE GFS (THE WETTER
SOLUTION) SHOW SOME INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON...HINTING THAT IF
THERE IS PRECIPITATION THUNDER WOULD AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE...EVEN IF
STORMS ARE NOT VERY STRONG DUE TO LACK OF FORCING.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT.
STILL EXPECTING A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT CHANCES FOR SOME 90S ARE
BECOMING LESS LIKELY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY...
SHIFTING TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH A SFC
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...KRD/MLM





000
FXUS62 KRAH 230557
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 820 PM FRIDAY...

ONLY A FEW CIRRUS WERE OBSERVED AROUND SUNSET... OTHERWISE THE
SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS NC. SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT ANY
ADDITIONAL CIRRUS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
RURAL NORTHERN PIEDMONT... NEAR 50 IN THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE
AREAS... AND LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AT 15Z) WILL TRACK
EAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE ROCKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT.
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. THIS...IN TURN...WILL
AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN VICINITY
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER
CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S FAR NE COASTAL
PLAIN TO LOWER 80S SW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL LARGELY BE WARM AND DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER...OR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO...THE CAROLINAS. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD...PREDOMINANTLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IMPINGES UPON IT FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES
DECREASES WITH TIME AS THE MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE. THE GFS IS A
BIT WETTER THAN THE ECMWF AS IT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE FASTER...
ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO PROGRESS FASTER AND FARTHER
EAST...THUS HAVING A GREATER IMPACT ON CENTRAL NC. GENERALLY...
EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND...
AROUND 60 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID TO UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEK.
ALSO...EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST...
INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
MUCH OF THE AREA COULD REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY...
SHIFTING TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH A SFC
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KRD/MLM





000
FXUS62 KRAH 230557
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 820 PM FRIDAY...

ONLY A FEW CIRRUS WERE OBSERVED AROUND SUNSET... OTHERWISE THE
SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS NC. SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT ANY
ADDITIONAL CIRRUS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
RURAL NORTHERN PIEDMONT... NEAR 50 IN THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE
AREAS... AND LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AT 15Z) WILL TRACK
EAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE ROCKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT.
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. THIS...IN TURN...WILL
AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN VICINITY
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER
CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S FAR NE COASTAL
PLAIN TO LOWER 80S SW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL LARGELY BE WARM AND DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER...OR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO...THE CAROLINAS. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD...PREDOMINANTLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IMPINGES UPON IT FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES
DECREASES WITH TIME AS THE MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE. THE GFS IS A
BIT WETTER THAN THE ECMWF AS IT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE FASTER...
ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO PROGRESS FASTER AND FARTHER
EAST...THUS HAVING A GREATER IMPACT ON CENTRAL NC. GENERALLY...
EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND...
AROUND 60 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID TO UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEK.
ALSO...EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST...
INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
MUCH OF THE AREA COULD REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY...
SHIFTING TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH A SFC
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KRD/MLM




000
FXUS62 KRAH 230023
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
820 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 820 PM FRIDAY...

ONLY A FEW CIRRUS WERE OBSERVED AROUND SUNSET... OTHERWISE THE
SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS NC. SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT ANY
ADDITIONAL CIRRUS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
RURAL NORTHERN PIEDMONT... NEAR 50 IN THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE
AREAS... AND LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AT 15Z) WILL TRACK
EAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE ROCKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT.
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. THIS...IN TURN...WILL
AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN VICINITY
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER
CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S FAR NE COASTAL
PLAIN TO LOWER 80S SW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL LARGELY BE WARM AND DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER...OR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO...THE CAROLINAS. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD...PREDOMINANTLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IMPINGES UPON IT FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES
DECREASES WITH TIME AS THE MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE. THE GFS IS A
BIT WETTER THAN THE ECMWF AS IT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE FASTER...
ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO PROGRESS FASTER AND FARTHER
EAST...THUS HAVING A GREATER IMPACT ON CENTRAL NC. GENERALLY...
EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND...
AROUND 60 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID TO UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEK.
ALSO...EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST...
INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
MUCH OF THE AREA COULD REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH
A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 230023
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
820 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 820 PM FRIDAY...

ONLY A FEW CIRRUS WERE OBSERVED AROUND SUNSET... OTHERWISE THE
SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS NC. SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT ANY
ADDITIONAL CIRRUS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
RURAL NORTHERN PIEDMONT... NEAR 50 IN THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE
AREAS... AND LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AT 15Z) WILL TRACK
EAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE ROCKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT.
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. THIS...IN TURN...WILL
AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN VICINITY
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER
CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S FAR NE COASTAL
PLAIN TO LOWER 80S SW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL LARGELY BE WARM AND DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER...OR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO...THE CAROLINAS. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD...PREDOMINANTLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IMPINGES UPON IT FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES
DECREASES WITH TIME AS THE MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE. THE GFS IS A
BIT WETTER THAN THE ECMWF AS IT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE FASTER...
ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO PROGRESS FASTER AND FARTHER
EAST...THUS HAVING A GREATER IMPACT ON CENTRAL NC. GENERALLY...
EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND...
AROUND 60 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID TO UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEK.
ALSO...EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST...
INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
MUCH OF THE AREA COULD REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH
A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 230023
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
820 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 820 PM FRIDAY...

ONLY A FEW CIRRUS WERE OBSERVED AROUND SUNSET... OTHERWISE THE
SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS NC. SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT ANY
ADDITIONAL CIRRUS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
RURAL NORTHERN PIEDMONT... NEAR 50 IN THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE
AREAS... AND LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AT 15Z) WILL TRACK
EAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE ROCKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT.
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. THIS...IN TURN...WILL
AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN VICINITY
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER
CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S FAR NE COASTAL
PLAIN TO LOWER 80S SW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL LARGELY BE WARM AND DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER...OR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO...THE CAROLINAS. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD...PREDOMINANTLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IMPINGES UPON IT FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES
DECREASES WITH TIME AS THE MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE. THE GFS IS A
BIT WETTER THAN THE ECMWF AS IT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE FASTER...
ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO PROGRESS FASTER AND FARTHER
EAST...THUS HAVING A GREATER IMPACT ON CENTRAL NC. GENERALLY...
EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND...
AROUND 60 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID TO UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEK.
ALSO...EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST...
INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
MUCH OF THE AREA COULD REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH
A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 230023
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
820 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 820 PM FRIDAY...

ONLY A FEW CIRRUS WERE OBSERVED AROUND SUNSET... OTHERWISE THE
SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS NC. SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT ANY
ADDITIONAL CIRRUS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S FOR THE
RURAL NORTHERN PIEDMONT... NEAR 50 IN THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE
AREAS... AND LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AT 15Z) WILL TRACK
EAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE ROCKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT.
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. THIS...IN TURN...WILL
AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN VICINITY
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER
CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S FAR NE COASTAL
PLAIN TO LOWER 80S SW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL LARGELY BE WARM AND DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER...OR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO...THE CAROLINAS. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD...PREDOMINANTLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IMPINGES UPON IT FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES
DECREASES WITH TIME AS THE MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE. THE GFS IS A
BIT WETTER THAN THE ECMWF AS IT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE FASTER...
ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO PROGRESS FASTER AND FARTHER
EAST...THUS HAVING A GREATER IMPACT ON CENTRAL NC. GENERALLY...
EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND...
AROUND 60 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID TO UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEK.
ALSO...EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST...
INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
MUCH OF THE AREA COULD REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH
A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 222326
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
726 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT...THEN LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS... AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES ASSOC/W HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SHOULD RESULT IN A NE BREEZE
LATE TONIGHT (06-12Z SAT)...LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SOME
DEGREE. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...
COOLEST IN RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
64 WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL OCCUR CLOSER
TO SUNRISE. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AT 15Z) WILL TRACK
EAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE ROCKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT.
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. THIS...IN TURN...WILL
AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN VICINITY
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER
CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S FAR NE COASTAL
PLAIN TO LOWER 80S SW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL LARGELY BE WARM AND DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER...OR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO...THE CAROLINAS. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD...PREDOMINANTLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IMPINGES UPON IT FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES
DECREASES WITH TIME AS THE MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE. THE GFS IS A
BIT WETTER THAN THE ECMWF AS IT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE FASTER...
ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO PROGRESS FASTER AND FARTHER
EAST...THUS HAVING A GREATER IMPACT ON CENTRAL NC. GENERALLY...
EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND...
AROUND 60 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID TO UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEK.
ALSO...EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST...
INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
MUCH OF THE AREA COULD REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH
A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 222326
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
726 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT...THEN LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS... AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES ASSOC/W HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SHOULD RESULT IN A NE BREEZE
LATE TONIGHT (06-12Z SAT)...LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SOME
DEGREE. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...
COOLEST IN RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
64 WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL OCCUR CLOSER
TO SUNRISE. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AT 15Z) WILL TRACK
EAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE ROCKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT.
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. THIS...IN TURN...WILL
AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN VICINITY
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER
CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S FAR NE COASTAL
PLAIN TO LOWER 80S SW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL LARGELY BE WARM AND DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER...OR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO...THE CAROLINAS. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD...PREDOMINANTLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IMPINGES UPON IT FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES
DECREASES WITH TIME AS THE MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE. THE GFS IS A
BIT WETTER THAN THE ECMWF AS IT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE FASTER...
ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO PROGRESS FASTER AND FARTHER
EAST...THUS HAVING A GREATER IMPACT ON CENTRAL NC. GENERALLY...
EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND...
AROUND 60 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID TO UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEK.
ALSO...EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST...
INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
MUCH OF THE AREA COULD REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH
A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 222326
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
726 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT...THEN LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS... AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES ASSOC/W HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SHOULD RESULT IN A NE BREEZE
LATE TONIGHT (06-12Z SAT)...LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SOME
DEGREE. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...
COOLEST IN RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
64 WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL OCCUR CLOSER
TO SUNRISE. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AT 15Z) WILL TRACK
EAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE ROCKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT.
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. THIS...IN TURN...WILL
AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN VICINITY
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER
CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S FAR NE COASTAL
PLAIN TO LOWER 80S SW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL LARGELY BE WARM AND DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER...OR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO...THE CAROLINAS. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD...PREDOMINANTLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IMPINGES UPON IT FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES
DECREASES WITH TIME AS THE MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE. THE GFS IS A
BIT WETTER THAN THE ECMWF AS IT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE FASTER...
ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO PROGRESS FASTER AND FARTHER
EAST...THUS HAVING A GREATER IMPACT ON CENTRAL NC. GENERALLY...
EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND...
AROUND 60 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID TO UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEK.
ALSO...EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST...
INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
MUCH OF THE AREA COULD REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH
A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 222326
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
726 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT...THEN LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS... AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES ASSOC/W HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SHOULD RESULT IN A NE BREEZE
LATE TONIGHT (06-12Z SAT)...LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SOME
DEGREE. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...
COOLEST IN RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
64 WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL OCCUR CLOSER
TO SUNRISE. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AT 15Z) WILL TRACK
EAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE ROCKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT.
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. THIS...IN TURN...WILL
AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN VICINITY
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER
CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S FAR NE COASTAL
PLAIN TO LOWER 80S SW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL LARGELY BE WARM AND DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER...OR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO...THE CAROLINAS. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD...PREDOMINANTLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IMPINGES UPON IT FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES
DECREASES WITH TIME AS THE MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE. THE GFS IS A
BIT WETTER THAN THE ECMWF AS IT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE FASTER...
ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO PROGRESS FASTER AND FARTHER
EAST...THUS HAVING A GREATER IMPACT ON CENTRAL NC. GENERALLY...
EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND...
AROUND 60 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID TO UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEK.
ALSO...EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST...
INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
MUCH OF THE AREA COULD REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH
A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 221825
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
225 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT...THEN LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS... AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES ASSOC/W HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SHOULD RESULT IN A NE BREEZE
LATE TONIGHT (06-12Z SAT)...LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SOME
DEGREE. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...
COOLEST IN RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
64 WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL OCCUR CLOSER
TO SUNRISE. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AT 15Z) WILL TRACK
EAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE ROCKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT.
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. THIS...IN TURN...WILL
AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN VICINITY
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER
CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S FAR NE COASTAL
PLAIN TO LOWER 80S SW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL LARGELY BE WARM AND DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER...OR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO...THE CAROLINAS. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD...PREDOMINANTLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IMPINGES UPON IT FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES
DECREASES WITH TIME AS THE MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE. THE GFS IS A
BIT WETTER THAN THE ECMWF AS IT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE FASTER...
ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO PROGRESS FASTER AND FARTHER
EAST...THUS HAVING A GREATER IMPACT ON CENTRAL NC. GENERALLY...
EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND...
AROUND 60 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID TO UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEK.
ALSO...EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST...
INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
MUCH OF THE AREA COULD REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN
ASSOC/W HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH/NW.
THOUGH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 15 KT THIS MORNING... WINDS
WILL WEAKEN TO 5-10 KT AND EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM
BY SUNSET. A SHORT PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH AS 10-15 KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...06-12Z SAT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
PRESSURE RISES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH
A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 221825
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
225 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT...THEN LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS... AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES ASSOC/W HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SHOULD RESULT IN A NE BREEZE
LATE TONIGHT (06-12Z SAT)...LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SOME
DEGREE. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...
COOLEST IN RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
64 WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL OCCUR CLOSER
TO SUNRISE. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AT 15Z) WILL TRACK
EAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE ROCKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT.
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. THIS...IN TURN...WILL
AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN VICINITY
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER
CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S FAR NE COASTAL
PLAIN TO LOWER 80S SW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL LARGELY BE WARM AND DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER...OR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO...THE CAROLINAS. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD...PREDOMINANTLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IMPINGES UPON IT FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES
DECREASES WITH TIME AS THE MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE. THE GFS IS A
BIT WETTER THAN THE ECMWF AS IT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE FASTER...
ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO PROGRESS FASTER AND FARTHER
EAST...THUS HAVING A GREATER IMPACT ON CENTRAL NC. GENERALLY...
EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND...
AROUND 60 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID TO UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEK.
ALSO...EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST...
INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
MUCH OF THE AREA COULD REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN
ASSOC/W HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH/NW.
THOUGH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 15 KT THIS MORNING... WINDS
WILL WEAKEN TO 5-10 KT AND EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM
BY SUNSET. A SHORT PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH AS 10-15 KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...06-12Z SAT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
PRESSURE RISES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH
A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 221825
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
225 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT...THEN LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS... AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES ASSOC/W HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SHOULD RESULT IN A NE BREEZE
LATE TONIGHT (06-12Z SAT)...LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SOME
DEGREE. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...
COOLEST IN RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
64 WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL OCCUR CLOSER
TO SUNRISE. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AT 15Z) WILL TRACK
EAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE ROCKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT.
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. THIS...IN TURN...WILL
AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN VICINITY
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER
CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S FAR NE COASTAL
PLAIN TO LOWER 80S SW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL LARGELY BE WARM AND DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER...OR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO...THE CAROLINAS. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD...PREDOMINANTLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IMPINGES UPON IT FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES
DECREASES WITH TIME AS THE MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE. THE GFS IS A
BIT WETTER THAN THE ECMWF AS IT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE FASTER...
ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO PROGRESS FASTER AND FARTHER
EAST...THUS HAVING A GREATER IMPACT ON CENTRAL NC. GENERALLY...
EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND...
AROUND 60 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID TO UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEK.
ALSO...EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST...
INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
MUCH OF THE AREA COULD REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN
ASSOC/W HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH/NW.
THOUGH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 15 KT THIS MORNING... WINDS
WILL WEAKEN TO 5-10 KT AND EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM
BY SUNSET. A SHORT PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH AS 10-15 KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...06-12Z SAT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
PRESSURE RISES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH
A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 221825
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
225 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT...THEN LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS... AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES ASSOC/W HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SHOULD RESULT IN A NE BREEZE
LATE TONIGHT (06-12Z SAT)...LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SOME
DEGREE. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...
COOLEST IN RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
64 WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL OCCUR CLOSER
TO SUNRISE. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AT 15Z) WILL TRACK
EAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE ROCKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT.
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. THIS...IN TURN...WILL
AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN VICINITY
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER
CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S FAR NE COASTAL
PLAIN TO LOWER 80S SW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL LARGELY BE WARM AND DRY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OVER...OR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO...THE CAROLINAS. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE PERIOD...PREDOMINANTLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IMPINGES UPON IT FROM THE NW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES
DECREASES WITH TIME AS THE MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE. THE GFS IS A
BIT WETTER THAN THE ECMWF AS IT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE FASTER...
ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO PROGRESS FASTER AND FARTHER
EAST...THUS HAVING A GREATER IMPACT ON CENTRAL NC. GENERALLY...
EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND...
AROUND 60 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID TO UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEK.
ALSO...EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE WEST...
INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
MUCH OF THE AREA COULD REMAIN DRY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN
ASSOC/W HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH/NW.
THOUGH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 15 KT THIS MORNING... WINDS
WILL WEAKEN TO 5-10 KT AND EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM
BY SUNSET. A SHORT PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH AS 10-15 KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...06-12Z SAT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
PRESSURE RISES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH
A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 221607
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1207 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT...THEN LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS... AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES ASSOC/W HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SHOULD RESULT IN A NE BREEZE
LATE TONIGHT (06-12Z SAT)...LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SOME
DEGREE. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...
COOLEST IN RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
64 WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL OCCUR CLOSER
TO SUNRISE. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AT 15Z) WILL TRACK
EAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE ROCKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT.
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. THIS...IN TURN...WILL
AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN VICINITY
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER
CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S FAR NE COASTAL
PLAIN TO LOWER 80S SW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT...COUPLED WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE
LONG TERM MOSTLY DRY AND INTRODUCE A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR WARMING TREND
STARTING IN THE LOWER 60S ON MONDAY MORNING AND MODERATING TO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES BY MID WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
STAGNANT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...KEEPING A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
CORRESPONDING MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH ALONG THE COAST COULD MEAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MOISTURE
ENCROACHING ON THE PIEDMONT TRIAD TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WEST OF US HIGHWAY 1 AS THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...ALLOWING THE STALLED FRONT TO THE WEST TO IMPINGE ON PARTS OF
CENTRAL NC. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE AREAS EAST OF ROUTE 1 COULD
REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AS DETAILS EMERGE ABOUT
POTENTIAL THUNDER LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THERE WILL AT LEAST BE SOME
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR LOOKS VERY WEAK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN
ASSOC/W HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH/NW.
THOUGH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 15 KT THIS MORNING... WINDS
WILL WEAKEN TO 5-10 KT AND EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM
BY SUNSET. A SHORT PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH AS 10-15 KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...06-12Z SAT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
PRESSURE RISES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH
A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 221607
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1207 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT...THEN LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS... AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES ASSOC/W HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SHOULD RESULT IN A NE BREEZE
LATE TONIGHT (06-12Z SAT)...LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SOME
DEGREE. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...
COOLEST IN RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
64 WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL OCCUR CLOSER
TO SUNRISE. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW (CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA AT 15Z) WILL TRACK
EAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE ROCKIES SAT/SAT NIGHT.
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION /LATENT HEAT RELEASE/
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. THIS...IN TURN...WILL
AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN VICINITY
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND CONTINUED DRY/PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER
CENTRAL NC WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 70S FAR NE COASTAL
PLAIN TO LOWER 80S SW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT...COUPLED WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE
LONG TERM MOSTLY DRY AND INTRODUCE A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR WARMING TREND
STARTING IN THE LOWER 60S ON MONDAY MORNING AND MODERATING TO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES BY MID WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
STAGNANT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...KEEPING A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
CORRESPONDING MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH ALONG THE COAST COULD MEAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MOISTURE
ENCROACHING ON THE PIEDMONT TRIAD TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WEST OF US HIGHWAY 1 AS THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...ALLOWING THE STALLED FRONT TO THE WEST TO IMPINGE ON PARTS OF
CENTRAL NC. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE AREAS EAST OF ROUTE 1 COULD
REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AS DETAILS EMERGE ABOUT
POTENTIAL THUNDER LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THERE WILL AT LEAST BE SOME
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR LOOKS VERY WEAK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN
ASSOC/W HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH/NW.
THOUGH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 15 KT THIS MORNING... WINDS
WILL WEAKEN TO 5-10 KT AND EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM
BY SUNSET. A SHORT PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH AS 10-15 KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...06-12Z SAT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
PRESSURE RISES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... WITH
A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS BY MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COMMENCES. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 220656
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH DRY AND COOL SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. ONGOING FORECAST
REFLECTS CONSISTENT MOS GUIDANCE AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES IN THE
MID 70S...AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE...AFTER DECOUPLING EARLY...MINS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO
MOSTLY INTO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

THE COOL SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES RATHER QUICKLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE...CONCURRENTLY RIDGING SOUTHWARD AND
PUSHING A WEAK SURGE OF REINFORCING COOL AIR INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH HIGHS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY...MID 70S NORTH TO TO UPPER
70S SOUTH...DUE TO STRONG SUN AND WINDS VEERING AROUND TO SOUTHEAST
BY LATE DAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
FOLLOW A SIMILAR BUMP UPWARDS WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT...COUPLED WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE
LONG TERM MOSTLY DRY AND INTRODUCE A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR WARMING TREND
STARTING IN THE LOWER 60S ON MONDAY MORNING AND MODERATING TO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES BY MID WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
STAGNANT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...KEEPING A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
CORRESPONDING MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH ALONG THE COAST COULD MEAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MOISTURE
ENCROACHING ON THE PIEDMONT TRIAD TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WEST OF US HIGHWAY 1 AS THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...ALLOWING THE STALLED FRONT TO THE WEST TO IMPINGE ON PARTS OF
CENTRAL NC. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE AREAS EAST OF ROUTE 1 COULD
REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AS DETAILS EMERGE ABOUT
POTENTIAL THUNDER LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THERE WILL AT LEAST BE SOME
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR LOOKS VERY WEAK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS OVER
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ONLY TAF SITE AFFECTED IS RWI...AND LOW
CLOUDINESS WILL BE SCATTERING AND THEN CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE AS
DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...MLM




000
FXUS62 KRAH 220656
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH DRY AND COOL SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. ONGOING FORECAST
REFLECTS CONSISTENT MOS GUIDANCE AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES IN THE
MID 70S...AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE...AFTER DECOUPLING EARLY...MINS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO
MOSTLY INTO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

THE COOL SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES RATHER QUICKLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE...CONCURRENTLY RIDGING SOUTHWARD AND
PUSHING A WEAK SURGE OF REINFORCING COOL AIR INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH HIGHS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY...MID 70S NORTH TO TO UPPER
70S SOUTH...DUE TO STRONG SUN AND WINDS VEERING AROUND TO SOUTHEAST
BY LATE DAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
FOLLOW A SIMILAR BUMP UPWARDS WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT...COUPLED WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE
LONG TERM MOSTLY DRY AND INTRODUCE A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR WARMING TREND
STARTING IN THE LOWER 60S ON MONDAY MORNING AND MODERATING TO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES BY MID WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
STAGNANT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...KEEPING A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
CORRESPONDING MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH ALONG THE COAST COULD MEAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MOISTURE
ENCROACHING ON THE PIEDMONT TRIAD TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WEST OF US HIGHWAY 1 AS THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...ALLOWING THE STALLED FRONT TO THE WEST TO IMPINGE ON PARTS OF
CENTRAL NC. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE AREAS EAST OF ROUTE 1 COULD
REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AS DETAILS EMERGE ABOUT
POTENTIAL THUNDER LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THERE WILL AT LEAST BE SOME
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR LOOKS VERY WEAK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS OVER
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ONLY TAF SITE AFFECTED IS RWI...AND LOW
CLOUDINESS WILL BE SCATTERING AND THEN CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE AS
DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...MLM





000
FXUS62 KRAH 220656
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH DRY AND COOL SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. ONGOING FORECAST
REFLECTS CONSISTENT MOS GUIDANCE AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES IN THE
MID 70S...AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE...AFTER DECOUPLING EARLY...MINS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO
MOSTLY INTO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

THE COOL SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES RATHER QUICKLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE...CONCURRENTLY RIDGING SOUTHWARD AND
PUSHING A WEAK SURGE OF REINFORCING COOL AIR INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH HIGHS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY...MID 70S NORTH TO TO UPPER
70S SOUTH...DUE TO STRONG SUN AND WINDS VEERING AROUND TO SOUTHEAST
BY LATE DAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
FOLLOW A SIMILAR BUMP UPWARDS WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT...COUPLED WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE
LONG TERM MOSTLY DRY AND INTRODUCE A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR WARMING TREND
STARTING IN THE LOWER 60S ON MONDAY MORNING AND MODERATING TO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES BY MID WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
STAGNANT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...KEEPING A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
CORRESPONDING MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH ALONG THE COAST COULD MEAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MOISTURE
ENCROACHING ON THE PIEDMONT TRIAD TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WEST OF US HIGHWAY 1 AS THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...ALLOWING THE STALLED FRONT TO THE WEST TO IMPINGE ON PARTS OF
CENTRAL NC. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE AREAS EAST OF ROUTE 1 COULD
REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AS DETAILS EMERGE ABOUT
POTENTIAL THUNDER LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THERE WILL AT LEAST BE SOME
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR LOOKS VERY WEAK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS OVER
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ONLY TAF SITE AFFECTED IS RWI...AND LOW
CLOUDINESS WILL BE SCATTERING AND THEN CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE AS
DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...MLM




000
FXUS62 KRAH 220656
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH DRY AND COOL SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. ONGOING FORECAST
REFLECTS CONSISTENT MOS GUIDANCE AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES IN THE
MID 70S...AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE...AFTER DECOUPLING EARLY...MINS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO
MOSTLY INTO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

THE COOL SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES RATHER QUICKLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND OFFSHORE...CONCURRENTLY RIDGING SOUTHWARD AND
PUSHING A WEAK SURGE OF REINFORCING COOL AIR INTO THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH HIGHS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY...MID 70S NORTH TO TO UPPER
70S SOUTH...DUE TO STRONG SUN AND WINDS VEERING AROUND TO SOUTHEAST
BY LATE DAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
FOLLOW A SIMILAR BUMP UPWARDS WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT...COUPLED WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE
LONG TERM MOSTLY DRY AND INTRODUCE A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR WARMING TREND
STARTING IN THE LOWER 60S ON MONDAY MORNING AND MODERATING TO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES BY MID WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
STAGNANT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...KEEPING A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
CORRESPONDING MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH ALONG THE COAST COULD MEAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MOISTURE
ENCROACHING ON THE PIEDMONT TRIAD TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WEST OF US HIGHWAY 1 AS THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...ALLOWING THE STALLED FRONT TO THE WEST TO IMPINGE ON PARTS OF
CENTRAL NC. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE AREAS EAST OF ROUTE 1 COULD
REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AS DETAILS EMERGE ABOUT
POTENTIAL THUNDER LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THERE WILL AT LEAST BE SOME
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR LOOKS VERY WEAK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS OVER
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ONLY TAF SITE AFFECTED IS RWI...AND LOW
CLOUDINESS WILL BE SCATTERING AND THEN CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE AS
DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...MLM





000
FXUS62 KRAH 220554
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
154 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY...
DRY COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA EXITING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST BETWEEN 00 TO 06Z...MARKING THE START OF WHAT WILL BE A
STRETCH OF VERY COMFORTABLE PLEASANT WX ACROSS CENTRAL NC. CLEARING
WILL BE DELAYED INITIALLY...WITH A PERIOD OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF THE
SECONDARY NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND UPPER SPEED MAXIMA PUSHING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A SECONDARY PUSH
OF COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMFORTABLE MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID
50S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT...COUPLED WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE
LONG TERM MOSTLY DRY AND INTRODUCE A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR WARMING TREND
STARTING IN THE LOWER 60S ON MONDAY MORNING AND MODERATING TO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES BY MID WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
STAGNANT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...KEEPING A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
CORRESPONDING MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH ALONG THE COAST COULD MEAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MOISTURE
ENCROACHING ON THE PIEDMONT TRIAD TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WEST OF US HIGHWAY 1 AS THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...ALLOWING THE STALLED FRONT TO THE WEST TO IMPINGE ON PARTS OF
CENTRAL NC. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE AREAS EAST OF ROUTE 1 COULD
REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AS DETAILS EMERGE ABOUT
POTENTIAL THUNDER LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THERE WILL AT LEAST BE SOME
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR LOOKS VERY WEAK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS OVER
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ONLY TAF SITE AFFECTED IS RWI...AND LOW
CLOUDINESS WILL BE SCATTERING AND THEN CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE AS
DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...MLM




000
FXUS62 KRAH 220554
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
154 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY...
DRY COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA EXITING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST BETWEEN 00 TO 06Z...MARKING THE START OF WHAT WILL BE A
STRETCH OF VERY COMFORTABLE PLEASANT WX ACROSS CENTRAL NC. CLEARING
WILL BE DELAYED INITIALLY...WITH A PERIOD OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF THE
SECONDARY NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND UPPER SPEED MAXIMA PUSHING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A SECONDARY PUSH
OF COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMFORTABLE MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID
50S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT...COUPLED WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE
LONG TERM MOSTLY DRY AND INTRODUCE A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR WARMING TREND
STARTING IN THE LOWER 60S ON MONDAY MORNING AND MODERATING TO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES BY MID WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
STAGNANT THROUGH THE LONG TERM...KEEPING A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
CORRESPONDING MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH ALONG THE COAST COULD MEAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME MOISTURE
ENCROACHING ON THE PIEDMONT TRIAD TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WEST OF US HIGHWAY 1 AS THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...ALLOWING THE STALLED FRONT TO THE WEST TO IMPINGE ON PARTS OF
CENTRAL NC. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE AREAS EAST OF ROUTE 1 COULD
REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AS DETAILS EMERGE ABOUT
POTENTIAL THUNDER LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THERE WILL AT LEAST BE SOME
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR LOOKS VERY WEAK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS OVER
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ONLY TAF SITE AFFECTED IS RWI...AND LOW
CLOUDINESS WILL BE SCATTERING AND THEN CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE AS
DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...MLM





000
FXUS62 KRAH 220534
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY...
DRY COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA EXITING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST BETWEEN 00 TO 06Z...MARKING THE START OF WHAT WILL BE A
STRETCH OF VERY COMFORTABLE PLEASANT WX ACROSS CENTRAL NC. CLEARING
WILL BE DELAYED INITIALLY...WITH A PERIOD OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF THE
SECONDARY NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND UPPER SPEED MAXIMA PUSHING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A SECONDARY PUSH
OF COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMFORTABLE MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID
50S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...EXPECT SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN
DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THICKNESSES (AND THUS TEMPERATURES)
INCREASING STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL START ADVECTING IN MORE WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION MID-
WEEK...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST WHERE THE MOIST FLOW IMPINGES ON THE TERRAIN. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MAY ALSO HELP GET SOME SHOWERS GOING...HOWEVER THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S NE TO AROUND 80
DEGREES SW WILL INCREASE 2-3 DEGREES PER DAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHERE
THEY WILL LEVEL OFF IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOST COMFORTABLE...LOW TO MID 50S...INCREASING INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS OVER
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ONLY TAF SITE AFFECTED IS RWI...AND LOW
CLOUDINESS WILL BE SCATTERING AND THEN CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE AS
DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MLM





000
FXUS62 KRAH 220534
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY...
DRY COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA EXITING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST BETWEEN 00 TO 06Z...MARKING THE START OF WHAT WILL BE A
STRETCH OF VERY COMFORTABLE PLEASANT WX ACROSS CENTRAL NC. CLEARING
WILL BE DELAYED INITIALLY...WITH A PERIOD OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF THE
SECONDARY NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND UPPER SPEED MAXIMA PUSHING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A SECONDARY PUSH
OF COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMFORTABLE MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID
50S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...EXPECT SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN
DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THICKNESSES (AND THUS TEMPERATURES)
INCREASING STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL START ADVECTING IN MORE WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION MID-
WEEK...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST WHERE THE MOIST FLOW IMPINGES ON THE TERRAIN. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MAY ALSO HELP GET SOME SHOWERS GOING...HOWEVER THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S NE TO AROUND 80
DEGREES SW WILL INCREASE 2-3 DEGREES PER DAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHERE
THEY WILL LEVEL OFF IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOST COMFORTABLE...LOW TO MID 50S...INCREASING INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS OVER
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ONLY TAF SITE AFFECTED IS RWI...AND LOW
CLOUDINESS WILL BE SCATTERING AND THEN CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE AS
DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MLM




000
FXUS62 KRAH 220534
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY...
DRY COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA EXITING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST BETWEEN 00 TO 06Z...MARKING THE START OF WHAT WILL BE A
STRETCH OF VERY COMFORTABLE PLEASANT WX ACROSS CENTRAL NC. CLEARING
WILL BE DELAYED INITIALLY...WITH A PERIOD OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF THE
SECONDARY NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND UPPER SPEED MAXIMA PUSHING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A SECONDARY PUSH
OF COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMFORTABLE MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID
50S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...EXPECT SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN
DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THICKNESSES (AND THUS TEMPERATURES)
INCREASING STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL START ADVECTING IN MORE WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION MID-
WEEK...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST WHERE THE MOIST FLOW IMPINGES ON THE TERRAIN. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MAY ALSO HELP GET SOME SHOWERS GOING...HOWEVER THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S NE TO AROUND 80
DEGREES SW WILL INCREASE 2-3 DEGREES PER DAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHERE
THEY WILL LEVEL OFF IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOST COMFORTABLE...LOW TO MID 50S...INCREASING INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS OVER
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ONLY TAF SITE AFFECTED IS RWI...AND LOW
CLOUDINESS WILL BE SCATTERING AND THEN CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE AS
DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MLM




000
FXUS62 KRAH 220534
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY...
DRY COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA EXITING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST BETWEEN 00 TO 06Z...MARKING THE START OF WHAT WILL BE A
STRETCH OF VERY COMFORTABLE PLEASANT WX ACROSS CENTRAL NC. CLEARING
WILL BE DELAYED INITIALLY...WITH A PERIOD OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF THE
SECONDARY NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND UPPER SPEED MAXIMA PUSHING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A SECONDARY PUSH
OF COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMFORTABLE MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID
50S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...EXPECT SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN
DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THICKNESSES (AND THUS TEMPERATURES)
INCREASING STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL START ADVECTING IN MORE WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION MID-
WEEK...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST WHERE THE MOIST FLOW IMPINGES ON THE TERRAIN. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MAY ALSO HELP GET SOME SHOWERS GOING...HOWEVER THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S NE TO AROUND 80
DEGREES SW WILL INCREASE 2-3 DEGREES PER DAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHERE
THEY WILL LEVEL OFF IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOST COMFORTABLE...LOW TO MID 50S...INCREASING INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS OVER
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ONLY TAF SITE AFFECTED IS RWI...AND LOW
CLOUDINESS WILL BE SCATTERING AND THEN CLEARING BEFORE SUNRISE AS
DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MLM





000
FXUS62 KRAH 220100
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
900 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY...
DRY COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA EXITING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST BETWEEN 00 TO 06Z...MARKING THE START OF WHAT WILL BE A
STRETCH OF VERY COMFORTABLE PLEASANT WX ACROSS CENTRAL NC. CLEARING
WILL BE DELAYED INITIALLY...WITH A PERIOD OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF THE
SECONDARY NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND UPPER SPEED MAXIMA PUSHING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A SECONDARY PUSH
OF COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMFORTABLE MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID
50S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...EXPECT SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN
DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THICKNESSES (AND THUS TEMPERATURES)
INCREASING STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL START ADVECTING IN MORE WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION MID-
WEEK...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST WHERE THE MOIST FLOW IMPINGES ON THE TERRAIN. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MAY ALSO HELP GET SOME SHOWERS GOING...HOWEVER THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S NE TO AROUND 80
DEGREES SW WILL INCREASE 2-3 DEGREES PER DAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHERE
THEY WILL LEVEL OFF IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOST COMFORTABLE...LOW TO MID 50S...INCREASING INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...

CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC BEHIND A
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST MAY SEE LINGERING MVFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AS WINDS BRIEFLY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY...THUS ADVECTING IN THE LOWER
CIGS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND BRING
IN DRIER AIR...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES. THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THEN...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 220100
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
900 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY...
DRY COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA EXITING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST BETWEEN 00 TO 06Z...MARKING THE START OF WHAT WILL BE A
STRETCH OF VERY COMFORTABLE PLEASANT WX ACROSS CENTRAL NC. CLEARING
WILL BE DELAYED INITIALLY...WITH A PERIOD OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF THE
SECONDARY NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND UPPER SPEED MAXIMA PUSHING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A SECONDARY PUSH
OF COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMFORTABLE MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID
50S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...EXPECT SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN
DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THICKNESSES (AND THUS TEMPERATURES)
INCREASING STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL START ADVECTING IN MORE WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION MID-
WEEK...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST WHERE THE MOIST FLOW IMPINGES ON THE TERRAIN. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MAY ALSO HELP GET SOME SHOWERS GOING...HOWEVER THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S NE TO AROUND 80
DEGREES SW WILL INCREASE 2-3 DEGREES PER DAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHERE
THEY WILL LEVEL OFF IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOST COMFORTABLE...LOW TO MID 50S...INCREASING INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...

CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC BEHIND A
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST MAY SEE LINGERING MVFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AS WINDS BRIEFLY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY...THUS ADVECTING IN THE LOWER
CIGS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND BRING
IN DRIER AIR...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES. THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THEN...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 220100
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
900 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY...
DRY COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA EXITING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST BETWEEN 00 TO 06Z...MARKING THE START OF WHAT WILL BE A
STRETCH OF VERY COMFORTABLE PLEASANT WX ACROSS CENTRAL NC. CLEARING
WILL BE DELAYED INITIALLY...WITH A PERIOD OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF THE
SECONDARY NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND UPPER SPEED MAXIMA PUSHING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A SECONDARY PUSH
OF COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMFORTABLE MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID
50S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...EXPECT SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN
DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THICKNESSES (AND THUS TEMPERATURES)
INCREASING STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL START ADVECTING IN MORE WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION MID-
WEEK...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST WHERE THE MOIST FLOW IMPINGES ON THE TERRAIN. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MAY ALSO HELP GET SOME SHOWERS GOING...HOWEVER THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S NE TO AROUND 80
DEGREES SW WILL INCREASE 2-3 DEGREES PER DAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHERE
THEY WILL LEVEL OFF IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOST COMFORTABLE...LOW TO MID 50S...INCREASING INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...

CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC BEHIND A
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST MAY SEE LINGERING MVFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AS WINDS BRIEFLY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY...THUS ADVECTING IN THE LOWER
CIGS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND BRING
IN DRIER AIR...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES. THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THEN...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 220100
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
900 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY PLEASANT CONDITIONS THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY...
DRY COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA EXITING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL BEGIN
IN EARNEST BETWEEN 00 TO 06Z...MARKING THE START OF WHAT WILL BE A
STRETCH OF VERY COMFORTABLE PLEASANT WX ACROSS CENTRAL NC. CLEARING
WILL BE DELAYED INITIALLY...WITH A PERIOD OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF THE
SECONDARY NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND UPPER SPEED MAXIMA PUSHING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A SECONDARY PUSH
OF COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMFORTABLE MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID
50S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...EXPECT SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN
DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THICKNESSES (AND THUS TEMPERATURES)
INCREASING STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL START ADVECTING IN MORE WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION MID-
WEEK...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST WHERE THE MOIST FLOW IMPINGES ON THE TERRAIN. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MAY ALSO HELP GET SOME SHOWERS GOING...HOWEVER THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S NE TO AROUND 80
DEGREES SW WILL INCREASE 2-3 DEGREES PER DAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHERE
THEY WILL LEVEL OFF IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOST COMFORTABLE...LOW TO MID 50S...INCREASING INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...

CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC BEHIND A
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST MAY SEE LINGERING MVFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AS WINDS BRIEFLY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY...THUS ADVECTING IN THE LOWER
CIGS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND BRING
IN DRIER AIR...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES. THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THEN...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 220002
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
802 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...

OVERVIEW: A SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE TRACKING EAST INTO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS TO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY 18Z AND
THE CAROLINA COAST BY 21-00Z. AN ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
CENTERED NEAR ROCK HILL SC (JUST SOUTH OF CHARLOTTE) AT 14Z... IS
PROGGED TO TRACK EAST TO FLORENCE SC/LUMBERTON NC BY 18Z AND THE
CAROLINA COAST BY 00Z THIS EVENING. FURTHER UPSTREAM...POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CENTERED IN VICINITY OF NORTHERN IL AT 14Z WILL
TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...PROGRESS THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...AND MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIP: EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP BETWEEN 15-21Z ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE HWY 64 CORRIDOR WHERE 925-850 MB WARM ADVECTION...WEAK
DPVA...AND MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY (250-500 J/KG MUCAPE)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS. IN THIS AREA (NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NE COASTAL PLAIN)...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND SHALLOW/
MARGINAL INSTABILITY (CAPE SITUATED ALMOST ENTIRELY BELOW THE -10C
ISOTHERM) SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDER. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE NE
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE DIURNAL TIMING OF APPROACHING DPVA AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE BETTER. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN SOUTH OF HWY 64. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE GREATEST
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 15-20Z AS THE SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC
LOW TRACK EAST IN VICINITY OF THE SC/NC BORDER INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION /EROSION OF CINH/ MAY
NOT OCCUR UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH POINT THE NARROW WARM
SECTOR WILL MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SANDHILLS AND SE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL INDICATE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION BETWEEN 16-20Z FROM
SCOTLAND/HOKE COUNTIES NORTHEAST TO WILSON/EDGECOMBE COUNTIES.

TEMPS: MID/UPPER 60S FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT (VA BORDER) TO LOW/MID
80S FAR SOUTH (NEAR SC BORDER). LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S FAR NORTH TO UPPER 50S /NEAR 60F/ FAR SOUTH/SE.

SEVERE: DEEP LAYER SHEAR RANGES FROM ~30 KT NEAR THE SC BORDER TO
~40 KT NEAR THE VA BORDER. AT 14Z...THE BEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 925 MB LOW) WAS SHIFTING INTO EASTERN NC IN
ADVANCE OF THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING 925 MB LOW...AND IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FURTHER EAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE
RELATIVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SEVERE STORM IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN BETWEEN 16-20Z...PRIMARILY IN WAYNE/WILSON/EDGECOMBE COUNTIES
WHERE ANY SFC-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NARROW WARM
SECTOR WILL ENCOUNTER 1) GREATER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND 2)
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT).
PRIMARY HAZARD APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL COULD NOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY ROTATING UPDRAFTS. ISOLD TOR
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN/COASTAL NC WHERE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ADVANCING 925 MB LOW. -VINCENT


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A SECONDARY PUSH
OF COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMFORTABLE MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID
50S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...EXPECT SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN
DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THICKNESSES (AND THUS TEMPERATURES)
INCREASING STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL START ADVECTING IN MORE WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION MID-
WEEK...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST WHERE THE MOIST FLOW IMPINGES ON THE TERRAIN. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MAY ALSO HELP GET SOME SHOWERS GOING...HOWEVER THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S NE TO AROUND 80
DEGREES SW WILL INCREASE 2-3 DEGREES PER DAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHERE
THEY WILL LEVEL OFF IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOST COMFORTABLE...LOW TO MID 50S...INCREASING INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...

CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC BEHIND A
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST MAY SEE LINGERING MVFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AS WINDS BRIEFLY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY...THUS ADVECTING IN THE LOWER
CIGS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND BRING
IN DRIER AIR...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES. THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THEN...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 220002
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
802 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...

OVERVIEW: A SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE TRACKING EAST INTO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS TO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY 18Z AND
THE CAROLINA COAST BY 21-00Z. AN ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
CENTERED NEAR ROCK HILL SC (JUST SOUTH OF CHARLOTTE) AT 14Z... IS
PROGGED TO TRACK EAST TO FLORENCE SC/LUMBERTON NC BY 18Z AND THE
CAROLINA COAST BY 00Z THIS EVENING. FURTHER UPSTREAM...POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CENTERED IN VICINITY OF NORTHERN IL AT 14Z WILL
TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...PROGRESS THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...AND MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIP: EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP BETWEEN 15-21Z ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE HWY 64 CORRIDOR WHERE 925-850 MB WARM ADVECTION...WEAK
DPVA...AND MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY (250-500 J/KG MUCAPE)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS. IN THIS AREA (NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NE COASTAL PLAIN)...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND SHALLOW/
MARGINAL INSTABILITY (CAPE SITUATED ALMOST ENTIRELY BELOW THE -10C
ISOTHERM) SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDER. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE NE
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE DIURNAL TIMING OF APPROACHING DPVA AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE BETTER. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN SOUTH OF HWY 64. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE GREATEST
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 15-20Z AS THE SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC
LOW TRACK EAST IN VICINITY OF THE SC/NC BORDER INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION /EROSION OF CINH/ MAY
NOT OCCUR UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH POINT THE NARROW WARM
SECTOR WILL MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SANDHILLS AND SE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL INDICATE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION BETWEEN 16-20Z FROM
SCOTLAND/HOKE COUNTIES NORTHEAST TO WILSON/EDGECOMBE COUNTIES.

TEMPS: MID/UPPER 60S FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT (VA BORDER) TO LOW/MID
80S FAR SOUTH (NEAR SC BORDER). LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S FAR NORTH TO UPPER 50S /NEAR 60F/ FAR SOUTH/SE.

SEVERE: DEEP LAYER SHEAR RANGES FROM ~30 KT NEAR THE SC BORDER TO
~40 KT NEAR THE VA BORDER. AT 14Z...THE BEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 925 MB LOW) WAS SHIFTING INTO EASTERN NC IN
ADVANCE OF THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING 925 MB LOW...AND IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FURTHER EAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE
RELATIVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SEVERE STORM IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN BETWEEN 16-20Z...PRIMARILY IN WAYNE/WILSON/EDGECOMBE COUNTIES
WHERE ANY SFC-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NARROW WARM
SECTOR WILL ENCOUNTER 1) GREATER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND 2)
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT).
PRIMARY HAZARD APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL COULD NOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY ROTATING UPDRAFTS. ISOLD TOR
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN/COASTAL NC WHERE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ADVANCING 925 MB LOW. -VINCENT


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A SECONDARY PUSH
OF COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMFORTABLE MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID
50S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...EXPECT SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN
DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THICKNESSES (AND THUS TEMPERATURES)
INCREASING STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL START ADVECTING IN MORE WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION MID-
WEEK...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST WHERE THE MOIST FLOW IMPINGES ON THE TERRAIN. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MAY ALSO HELP GET SOME SHOWERS GOING...HOWEVER THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S NE TO AROUND 80
DEGREES SW WILL INCREASE 2-3 DEGREES PER DAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHERE
THEY WILL LEVEL OFF IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOST COMFORTABLE...LOW TO MID 50S...INCREASING INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...

CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC BEHIND A
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST MAY SEE LINGERING MVFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AS WINDS BRIEFLY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY...THUS ADVECTING IN THE LOWER
CIGS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND BRING
IN DRIER AIR...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES. THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THEN...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 220002
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
802 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...

OVERVIEW: A SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE TRACKING EAST INTO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS TO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY 18Z AND
THE CAROLINA COAST BY 21-00Z. AN ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
CENTERED NEAR ROCK HILL SC (JUST SOUTH OF CHARLOTTE) AT 14Z... IS
PROGGED TO TRACK EAST TO FLORENCE SC/LUMBERTON NC BY 18Z AND THE
CAROLINA COAST BY 00Z THIS EVENING. FURTHER UPSTREAM...POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CENTERED IN VICINITY OF NORTHERN IL AT 14Z WILL
TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...PROGRESS THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...AND MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIP: EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP BETWEEN 15-21Z ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE HWY 64 CORRIDOR WHERE 925-850 MB WARM ADVECTION...WEAK
DPVA...AND MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY (250-500 J/KG MUCAPE)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS. IN THIS AREA (NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NE COASTAL PLAIN)...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND SHALLOW/
MARGINAL INSTABILITY (CAPE SITUATED ALMOST ENTIRELY BELOW THE -10C
ISOTHERM) SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDER. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE NE
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE DIURNAL TIMING OF APPROACHING DPVA AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE BETTER. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN SOUTH OF HWY 64. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE GREATEST
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 15-20Z AS THE SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC
LOW TRACK EAST IN VICINITY OF THE SC/NC BORDER INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION /EROSION OF CINH/ MAY
NOT OCCUR UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH POINT THE NARROW WARM
SECTOR WILL MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SANDHILLS AND SE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL INDICATE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION BETWEEN 16-20Z FROM
SCOTLAND/HOKE COUNTIES NORTHEAST TO WILSON/EDGECOMBE COUNTIES.

TEMPS: MID/UPPER 60S FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT (VA BORDER) TO LOW/MID
80S FAR SOUTH (NEAR SC BORDER). LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S FAR NORTH TO UPPER 50S /NEAR 60F/ FAR SOUTH/SE.

SEVERE: DEEP LAYER SHEAR RANGES FROM ~30 KT NEAR THE SC BORDER TO
~40 KT NEAR THE VA BORDER. AT 14Z...THE BEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 925 MB LOW) WAS SHIFTING INTO EASTERN NC IN
ADVANCE OF THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING 925 MB LOW...AND IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FURTHER EAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE
RELATIVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SEVERE STORM IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN BETWEEN 16-20Z...PRIMARILY IN WAYNE/WILSON/EDGECOMBE COUNTIES
WHERE ANY SFC-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NARROW WARM
SECTOR WILL ENCOUNTER 1) GREATER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND 2)
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT).
PRIMARY HAZARD APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL COULD NOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY ROTATING UPDRAFTS. ISOLD TOR
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN/COASTAL NC WHERE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ADVANCING 925 MB LOW. -VINCENT


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A SECONDARY PUSH
OF COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMFORTABLE MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID
50S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...EXPECT SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN
DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THICKNESSES (AND THUS TEMPERATURES)
INCREASING STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL START ADVECTING IN MORE WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION MID-
WEEK...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST WHERE THE MOIST FLOW IMPINGES ON THE TERRAIN. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MAY ALSO HELP GET SOME SHOWERS GOING...HOWEVER THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S NE TO AROUND 80
DEGREES SW WILL INCREASE 2-3 DEGREES PER DAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHERE
THEY WILL LEVEL OFF IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOST COMFORTABLE...LOW TO MID 50S...INCREASING INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...

CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC BEHIND A
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST MAY SEE LINGERING MVFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AS WINDS BRIEFLY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY...THUS ADVECTING IN THE LOWER
CIGS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND BRING
IN DRIER AIR...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES. THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THEN...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 220002
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
802 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...

OVERVIEW: A SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE TRACKING EAST INTO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS TO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY 18Z AND
THE CAROLINA COAST BY 21-00Z. AN ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
CENTERED NEAR ROCK HILL SC (JUST SOUTH OF CHARLOTTE) AT 14Z... IS
PROGGED TO TRACK EAST TO FLORENCE SC/LUMBERTON NC BY 18Z AND THE
CAROLINA COAST BY 00Z THIS EVENING. FURTHER UPSTREAM...POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CENTERED IN VICINITY OF NORTHERN IL AT 14Z WILL
TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...PROGRESS THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...AND MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIP: EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP BETWEEN 15-21Z ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE HWY 64 CORRIDOR WHERE 925-850 MB WARM ADVECTION...WEAK
DPVA...AND MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY (250-500 J/KG MUCAPE)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS. IN THIS AREA (NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NE COASTAL PLAIN)...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND SHALLOW/
MARGINAL INSTABILITY (CAPE SITUATED ALMOST ENTIRELY BELOW THE -10C
ISOTHERM) SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDER. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE NE
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE DIURNAL TIMING OF APPROACHING DPVA AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE BETTER. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN SOUTH OF HWY 64. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE GREATEST
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 15-20Z AS THE SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC
LOW TRACK EAST IN VICINITY OF THE SC/NC BORDER INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION /EROSION OF CINH/ MAY
NOT OCCUR UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH POINT THE NARROW WARM
SECTOR WILL MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SANDHILLS AND SE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL INDICATE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION BETWEEN 16-20Z FROM
SCOTLAND/HOKE COUNTIES NORTHEAST TO WILSON/EDGECOMBE COUNTIES.

TEMPS: MID/UPPER 60S FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT (VA BORDER) TO LOW/MID
80S FAR SOUTH (NEAR SC BORDER). LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S FAR NORTH TO UPPER 50S /NEAR 60F/ FAR SOUTH/SE.

SEVERE: DEEP LAYER SHEAR RANGES FROM ~30 KT NEAR THE SC BORDER TO
~40 KT NEAR THE VA BORDER. AT 14Z...THE BEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 925 MB LOW) WAS SHIFTING INTO EASTERN NC IN
ADVANCE OF THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING 925 MB LOW...AND IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FURTHER EAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE
RELATIVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SEVERE STORM IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN BETWEEN 16-20Z...PRIMARILY IN WAYNE/WILSON/EDGECOMBE COUNTIES
WHERE ANY SFC-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NARROW WARM
SECTOR WILL ENCOUNTER 1) GREATER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND 2)
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT).
PRIMARY HAZARD APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL COULD NOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY ROTATING UPDRAFTS. ISOLD TOR
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN/COASTAL NC WHERE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ADVANCING 925 MB LOW. -VINCENT


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A SECONDARY PUSH
OF COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMFORTABLE MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID
50S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...EXPECT SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN
DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THICKNESSES (AND THUS TEMPERATURES)
INCREASING STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL START ADVECTING IN MORE WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION MID-
WEEK...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST WHERE THE MOIST FLOW IMPINGES ON THE TERRAIN. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MAY ALSO HELP GET SOME SHOWERS GOING...HOWEVER THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S NE TO AROUND 80
DEGREES SW WILL INCREASE 2-3 DEGREES PER DAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHERE
THEY WILL LEVEL OFF IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOST COMFORTABLE...LOW TO MID 50S...INCREASING INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM THURSDAY...

CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC BEHIND A
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST MAY SEE LINGERING MVFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AS WINDS BRIEFLY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY...THUS ADVECTING IN THE LOWER
CIGS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND BRING
IN DRIER AIR...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES. THERE COULD BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THEN...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 211754
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
154 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...

OVERVIEW: A SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE TRACKING EAST INTO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS TO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY 18Z AND
THE CAROLINA COAST BY 21-00Z. AN ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
CENTERED NEAR ROCK HILL SC (JUST SOUTH OF CHARLOTTE) AT 14Z... IS
PROGGED TO TRACK EAST TO FLORENCE SC/LUMBERTON NC BY 18Z AND THE
CAROLINA COAST BY 00Z THIS EVENING. FURTHER UPSTREAM...POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CENTERED IN VICINITY OF NORTHERN IL AT 14Z WILL
TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...PROGRESS THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...AND MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIP: EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP BETWEEN 15-21Z ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE HWY 64 CORRIDOR WHERE 925-850 MB WARM ADVECTION...WEAK
DPVA...AND MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY (250-500 J/KG MUCAPE)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS. IN THIS AREA (NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NE COASTAL PLAIN)...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND SHALLOW/
MARGINAL INSTABILITY (CAPE SITUATED ALMOST ENTIRELY BELOW THE -10C
ISOTHERM) SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDER. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE NE
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE DIURNAL TIMING OF APPROACHING DPVA AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE BETTER. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN SOUTH OF HWY 64. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE GREATEST
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 15-20Z AS THE SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC
LOW TRACK EAST IN VICINITY OF THE SC/NC BORDER INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION /EROSION OF CINH/ MAY
NOT OCCUR UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH POINT THE NARROW WARM
SECTOR WILL MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SANDHILLS AND SE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL INDICATE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION BETWEEN 16-20Z FROM
SCOTLAND/HOKE COUNTIES NORTHEAST TO WILSON/EDGECOMBE COUNTIES.

TEMPS: MID/UPPER 60S FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT (VA BORDER) TO LOW/MID
80S FAR SOUTH (NEAR SC BORDER). LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S FAR NORTH TO UPPER 50S /NEAR 60F/ FAR SOUTH/SE.

SEVERE: DEEP LAYER SHEAR RANGES FROM ~30 KT NEAR THE SC BORDER TO
~40 KT NEAR THE VA BORDER. AT 14Z...THE BEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 925 MB LOW) WAS SHIFTING INTO EASTERN NC IN
ADVANCE OF THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING 925 MB LOW...AND IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FURTHER EAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE
RELATIVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SEVERE STORM IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN BETWEEN 16-20Z...PRIMARILY IN WAYNE/WILSON/EDGECOMBE COUNTIES
WHERE ANY SFC-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NARROW WARM
SECTOR WILL ENCOUNTER 1) GREATER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND 2)
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT).
PRIMARY HAZARD APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL COULD NOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY ROTATING UPDRAFTS. ISOLD TOR
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN/COASTAL NC WHERE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ADVANCING 925 MB LOW. -VINCENT


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A SECONDARY PUSH
OF COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMFORTABLE MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID
50S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...EXPECT SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN
DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THICKNESSES (AND THUS TEMPERATURES)
INCREASING STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL START ADVECTING IN MORE WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION MID-
WEEK...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST WHERE THE MOIST FLOW IMPINGES ON THE TERRAIN. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MAY ALSO HELP GET SOME SHOWERS GOING...HOWEVER THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S NE TO AROUND 80
DEGREES SW WILL INCREASE 2-3 DEGREES PER DAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHERE
THEY WILL LEVEL OFF IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOST COMFORTABLE...LOW TO MID 50S...INCREASING INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR CEILINGS AT INT/GSO WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY VFR THIS EVENING AS A DRIER
AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST. FURTHER
EAST AT RDU/FAY/RWI...MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH ~21Z THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE CONVECTION CLEARS A GIVEN TERMINAL
AND PASSES TO THE EAST...A SHORT PERIOD (1-3 HR) OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW CEILINGS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
ADVECT SOUTHEASTWARD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS EVENING (~00Z)
FROM WEST/NW TO EAST/SE AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS OFFSHORE AND A DRIER
AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REST OF CENTRAL NC.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN ASSOC/W HIGH PRESSURE. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211754
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
154 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...

OVERVIEW: A SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE TRACKING EAST INTO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS TO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY 18Z AND
THE CAROLINA COAST BY 21-00Z. AN ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
CENTERED NEAR ROCK HILL SC (JUST SOUTH OF CHARLOTTE) AT 14Z... IS
PROGGED TO TRACK EAST TO FLORENCE SC/LUMBERTON NC BY 18Z AND THE
CAROLINA COAST BY 00Z THIS EVENING. FURTHER UPSTREAM...POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CENTERED IN VICINITY OF NORTHERN IL AT 14Z WILL
TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...PROGRESS THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...AND MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIP: EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP BETWEEN 15-21Z ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE HWY 64 CORRIDOR WHERE 925-850 MB WARM ADVECTION...WEAK
DPVA...AND MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY (250-500 J/KG MUCAPE)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS. IN THIS AREA (NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NE COASTAL PLAIN)...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND SHALLOW/
MARGINAL INSTABILITY (CAPE SITUATED ALMOST ENTIRELY BELOW THE -10C
ISOTHERM) SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDER. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE NE
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE DIURNAL TIMING OF APPROACHING DPVA AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE BETTER. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN SOUTH OF HWY 64. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE GREATEST
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 15-20Z AS THE SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC
LOW TRACK EAST IN VICINITY OF THE SC/NC BORDER INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION /EROSION OF CINH/ MAY
NOT OCCUR UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH POINT THE NARROW WARM
SECTOR WILL MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SANDHILLS AND SE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL INDICATE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION BETWEEN 16-20Z FROM
SCOTLAND/HOKE COUNTIES NORTHEAST TO WILSON/EDGECOMBE COUNTIES.

TEMPS: MID/UPPER 60S FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT (VA BORDER) TO LOW/MID
80S FAR SOUTH (NEAR SC BORDER). LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S FAR NORTH TO UPPER 50S /NEAR 60F/ FAR SOUTH/SE.

SEVERE: DEEP LAYER SHEAR RANGES FROM ~30 KT NEAR THE SC BORDER TO
~40 KT NEAR THE VA BORDER. AT 14Z...THE BEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 925 MB LOW) WAS SHIFTING INTO EASTERN NC IN
ADVANCE OF THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING 925 MB LOW...AND IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FURTHER EAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE
RELATIVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SEVERE STORM IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN BETWEEN 16-20Z...PRIMARILY IN WAYNE/WILSON/EDGECOMBE COUNTIES
WHERE ANY SFC-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NARROW WARM
SECTOR WILL ENCOUNTER 1) GREATER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND 2)
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT).
PRIMARY HAZARD APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL COULD NOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY ROTATING UPDRAFTS. ISOLD TOR
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN/COASTAL NC WHERE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ADVANCING 925 MB LOW. -VINCENT


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A SECONDARY PUSH
OF COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMFORTABLE MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID
50S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...EXPECT SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN
DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THICKNESSES (AND THUS TEMPERATURES)
INCREASING STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL START ADVECTING IN MORE WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION MID-
WEEK...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST WHERE THE MOIST FLOW IMPINGES ON THE TERRAIN. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MAY ALSO HELP GET SOME SHOWERS GOING...HOWEVER THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S NE TO AROUND 80
DEGREES SW WILL INCREASE 2-3 DEGREES PER DAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHERE
THEY WILL LEVEL OFF IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOST COMFORTABLE...LOW TO MID 50S...INCREASING INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR CEILINGS AT INT/GSO WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY VFR THIS EVENING AS A DRIER
AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST. FURTHER
EAST AT RDU/FAY/RWI...MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH ~21Z THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE CONVECTION CLEARS A GIVEN TERMINAL
AND PASSES TO THE EAST...A SHORT PERIOD (1-3 HR) OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW CEILINGS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
ADVECT SOUTHEASTWARD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS EVENING (~00Z)
FROM WEST/NW TO EAST/SE AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS OFFSHORE AND A DRIER
AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REST OF CENTRAL NC.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN ASSOC/W HIGH PRESSURE. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 211754
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
154 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...

OVERVIEW: A SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE TRACKING EAST INTO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS TO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY 18Z AND
THE CAROLINA COAST BY 21-00Z. AN ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
CENTERED NEAR ROCK HILL SC (JUST SOUTH OF CHARLOTTE) AT 14Z... IS
PROGGED TO TRACK EAST TO FLORENCE SC/LUMBERTON NC BY 18Z AND THE
CAROLINA COAST BY 00Z THIS EVENING. FURTHER UPSTREAM...POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CENTERED IN VICINITY OF NORTHERN IL AT 14Z WILL
TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...PROGRESS THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...AND MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIP: EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP BETWEEN 15-21Z ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE HWY 64 CORRIDOR WHERE 925-850 MB WARM ADVECTION...WEAK
DPVA...AND MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY (250-500 J/KG MUCAPE)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS. IN THIS AREA (NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NE COASTAL PLAIN)...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND SHALLOW/
MARGINAL INSTABILITY (CAPE SITUATED ALMOST ENTIRELY BELOW THE -10C
ISOTHERM) SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDER. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE NE
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE DIURNAL TIMING OF APPROACHING DPVA AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE BETTER. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN SOUTH OF HWY 64. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE GREATEST
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 15-20Z AS THE SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC
LOW TRACK EAST IN VICINITY OF THE SC/NC BORDER INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION /EROSION OF CINH/ MAY
NOT OCCUR UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH POINT THE NARROW WARM
SECTOR WILL MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SANDHILLS AND SE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL INDICATE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION BETWEEN 16-20Z FROM
SCOTLAND/HOKE COUNTIES NORTHEAST TO WILSON/EDGECOMBE COUNTIES.

TEMPS: MID/UPPER 60S FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT (VA BORDER) TO LOW/MID
80S FAR SOUTH (NEAR SC BORDER). LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S FAR NORTH TO UPPER 50S /NEAR 60F/ FAR SOUTH/SE.

SEVERE: DEEP LAYER SHEAR RANGES FROM ~30 KT NEAR THE SC BORDER TO
~40 KT NEAR THE VA BORDER. AT 14Z...THE BEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 925 MB LOW) WAS SHIFTING INTO EASTERN NC IN
ADVANCE OF THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING 925 MB LOW...AND IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FURTHER EAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE
RELATIVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SEVERE STORM IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN BETWEEN 16-20Z...PRIMARILY IN WAYNE/WILSON/EDGECOMBE COUNTIES
WHERE ANY SFC-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NARROW WARM
SECTOR WILL ENCOUNTER 1) GREATER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND 2)
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT).
PRIMARY HAZARD APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL COULD NOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY ROTATING UPDRAFTS. ISOLD TOR
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN/COASTAL NC WHERE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ADVANCING 925 MB LOW. -VINCENT


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A SECONDARY PUSH
OF COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMFORTABLE MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID
50S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...EXPECT SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN
DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THICKNESSES (AND THUS TEMPERATURES)
INCREASING STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL START ADVECTING IN MORE WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION MID-
WEEK...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST WHERE THE MOIST FLOW IMPINGES ON THE TERRAIN. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MAY ALSO HELP GET SOME SHOWERS GOING...HOWEVER THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S NE TO AROUND 80
DEGREES SW WILL INCREASE 2-3 DEGREES PER DAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHERE
THEY WILL LEVEL OFF IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOST COMFORTABLE...LOW TO MID 50S...INCREASING INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR CEILINGS AT INT/GSO WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY VFR THIS EVENING AS A DRIER
AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST. FURTHER
EAST AT RDU/FAY/RWI...MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH ~21Z THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE CONVECTION CLEARS A GIVEN TERMINAL
AND PASSES TO THE EAST...A SHORT PERIOD (1-3 HR) OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW CEILINGS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
ADVECT SOUTHEASTWARD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS EVENING (~00Z)
FROM WEST/NW TO EAST/SE AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS OFFSHORE AND A DRIER
AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REST OF CENTRAL NC.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN ASSOC/W HIGH PRESSURE. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211754
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
154 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...

OVERVIEW: A SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE TRACKING EAST INTO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS TO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY 18Z AND
THE CAROLINA COAST BY 21-00Z. AN ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
CENTERED NEAR ROCK HILL SC (JUST SOUTH OF CHARLOTTE) AT 14Z... IS
PROGGED TO TRACK EAST TO FLORENCE SC/LUMBERTON NC BY 18Z AND THE
CAROLINA COAST BY 00Z THIS EVENING. FURTHER UPSTREAM...POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CENTERED IN VICINITY OF NORTHERN IL AT 14Z WILL
TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...PROGRESS THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...AND MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIP: EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP BETWEEN 15-21Z ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE HWY 64 CORRIDOR WHERE 925-850 MB WARM ADVECTION...WEAK
DPVA...AND MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY (250-500 J/KG MUCAPE)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS. IN THIS AREA (NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NE COASTAL PLAIN)...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND SHALLOW/
MARGINAL INSTABILITY (CAPE SITUATED ALMOST ENTIRELY BELOW THE -10C
ISOTHERM) SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDER. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE NE
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE DIURNAL TIMING OF APPROACHING DPVA AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE BETTER. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN SOUTH OF HWY 64. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE GREATEST
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 15-20Z AS THE SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC
LOW TRACK EAST IN VICINITY OF THE SC/NC BORDER INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION /EROSION OF CINH/ MAY
NOT OCCUR UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH POINT THE NARROW WARM
SECTOR WILL MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SANDHILLS AND SE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL INDICATE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION BETWEEN 16-20Z FROM
SCOTLAND/HOKE COUNTIES NORTHEAST TO WILSON/EDGECOMBE COUNTIES.

TEMPS: MID/UPPER 60S FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT (VA BORDER) TO LOW/MID
80S FAR SOUTH (NEAR SC BORDER). LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S FAR NORTH TO UPPER 50S /NEAR 60F/ FAR SOUTH/SE.

SEVERE: DEEP LAYER SHEAR RANGES FROM ~30 KT NEAR THE SC BORDER TO
~40 KT NEAR THE VA BORDER. AT 14Z...THE BEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 925 MB LOW) WAS SHIFTING INTO EASTERN NC IN
ADVANCE OF THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING 925 MB LOW...AND IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FURTHER EAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE
RELATIVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SEVERE STORM IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN BETWEEN 16-20Z...PRIMARILY IN WAYNE/WILSON/EDGECOMBE COUNTIES
WHERE ANY SFC-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NARROW WARM
SECTOR WILL ENCOUNTER 1) GREATER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND 2)
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT).
PRIMARY HAZARD APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL COULD NOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY ROTATING UPDRAFTS. ISOLD TOR
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN/COASTAL NC WHERE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ADVANCING 925 MB LOW. -VINCENT


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A SECONDARY PUSH
OF COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMFORTABLE MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND MID
50S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...EXPECT SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN
DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR...WITH THICKNESSES (AND THUS TEMPERATURES)
INCREASING STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEK. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL START ADVECTING IN MORE WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION MID-
WEEK...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST WHERE THE MOIST FLOW IMPINGES ON THE TERRAIN. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MAY ALSO HELP GET SOME SHOWERS GOING...HOWEVER THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 70S NE TO AROUND 80
DEGREES SW WILL INCREASE 2-3 DEGREES PER DAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHERE
THEY WILL LEVEL OFF IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MOST COMFORTABLE...LOW TO MID 50S...INCREASING INTO
THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR CEILINGS AT INT/GSO WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY VFR THIS EVENING AS A DRIER
AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST. FURTHER
EAST AT RDU/FAY/RWI...MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH ~21Z THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE CONVECTION CLEARS A GIVEN TERMINAL
AND PASSES TO THE EAST...A SHORT PERIOD (1-3 HR) OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW CEILINGS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
ADVECT SOUTHEASTWARD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS EVENING (~00Z)
FROM WEST/NW TO EAST/SE AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS OFFSHORE AND A DRIER
AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REST OF CENTRAL NC.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN ASSOC/W HIGH PRESSURE. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 211732
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
132 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...

OVERVIEW: A SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE TRACKING EAST INTO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS TO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY 18Z AND
THE CAROLINA COAST BY 21-00Z. AN ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
CENTERED NEAR ROCK HILL SC (JUST SOUTH OF CHARLOTTE) AT 14Z... IS
PROGGED TO TRACK EAST TO FLORENCE SC/LUMBERTON NC BY 18Z AND THE
CAROLINA COAST BY 00Z THIS EVENING. FURTHER UPSTREAM...POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CENTERED IN VICINITY OF NORTHERN IL AT 14Z WILL
TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...PROGRESS THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...AND MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIP: EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP BETWEEN 15-21Z ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE HWY 64 CORRIDOR WHERE 925-850 MB WARM ADVECTION...WEAK
DPVA...AND MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY (250-500 J/KG MUCAPE)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS. IN THIS AREA (NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NE COASTAL PLAIN)...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND SHALLOW/
MARGINAL INSTABILITY (CAPE SITUATED ALMOST ENTIRELY BELOW THE -10C
ISOTHERM) SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDER. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE NE
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE DIURNAL TIMING OF APPROACHING DPVA AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE BETTER. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN SOUTH OF HWY 64. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE GREATEST
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 15-20Z AS THE SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC
LOW TRACK EAST IN VICINITY OF THE SC/NC BORDER INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION /EROSION OF CINH/ MAY
NOT OCCUR UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH POINT THE NARROW WARM
SECTOR WILL MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SANDHILLS AND SE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL INDICATE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION BETWEEN 16-20Z FROM
SCOTLAND/HOKE COUNTIES NORTHEAST TO WILSON/EDGECOMBE COUNTIES.

TEMPS: MID/UPPER 60S FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT (VA BORDER) TO LOW/MID
80S FAR SOUTH (NEAR SC BORDER). LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S FAR NORTH TO UPPER 50S /NEAR 60F/ FAR SOUTH/SE.

SEVERE: DEEP LAYER SHEAR RANGES FROM ~30 KT NEAR THE SC BORDER TO
~40 KT NEAR THE VA BORDER. AT 14Z...THE BEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 925 MB LOW) WAS SHIFTING INTO EASTERN NC IN
ADVANCE OF THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING 925 MB LOW...AND IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FURTHER EAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE
RELATIVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SEVERE STORM IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN BETWEEN 16-20Z...PRIMARILY IN WAYNE/WILSON/EDGECOMBE COUNTIES
WHERE ANY SFC-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NARROW WARM
SECTOR WILL ENCOUNTER 1) GREATER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND 2)
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT).
PRIMARY HAZARD APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL COULD NOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY ROTATING UPDRAFTS. ISOLD TOR
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN/COASTAL NC WHERE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ADVANCING 925 MB LOW. -VINCENT


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM THURSDAY...

A TROUGH ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES FRI...THEN OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT. DESPITE THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THE TROUGH...HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
UNDERWAY OVER VA AND THE CAROLINAS...IN THE WAKE OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSEQUENTLY BUILD EAST FROM THE TN VALLEY ON FRI
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD MIDDLE ATLANTIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH...
FOLLOWED BY THE FRI NIGHT PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT RESULTING FROM
THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S ON FRI...WITH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES
OWING TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT WILL
LIKELY VARY WILDLY...WITH PE-FRONTAL RADIATIONAL COOLING INITIALLY;
THEN MIXING AND ASSOCIATED WARMING WITH FROPA; AND ENDING WITH CAA
LATE...WITH LOWS BY THE END OF THE NIGHT IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM THURSDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VERY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. INITIALLY...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BRINING COOLER
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL NC FOR SATURDAY BEFORE THE HIGH SLIDES
OFFSHORE AND SETS UP EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
SOUTHERLY (ALTHOUGH LIGHT) AND BEGIN A WARMING TREND THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ON SATURDAY BUT STEADILY RISING A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY UP TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS
WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...RISING A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY
FROM THE UPPER 50S ON SATURDAY NIGHT UP TO THE UPPER 60S BY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA. LATE IN THE PERIOD...A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND THERE IS A LITTLE
DISCREPANCY ON TIMING BUT MODELS THIS MORNING LOOK TO HOLD OFF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS AND THEREFORE HAVE CUT BACK POPS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...INTRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN CHANCE IN THE WEST...SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR CEILINGS AT INT/GSO WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY VFR THIS EVENING AS A DRIER
AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST. FURTHER
EAST AT RDU/FAY/RWI...MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH ~21Z THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE CONVECTION CLEARS A GIVEN TERMINAL
AND PASSES TO THE EAST...A SHORT PERIOD (1-3 HR) OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW CEILINGS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
ADVECT SOUTHEASTWARD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS EVENING (~00Z)
FROM WEST/NW TO EAST/SE AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS OFFSHORE AND A DRIER
AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REST OF CENTRAL NC.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN ASSOC/W HIGH PRESSURE. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 211732
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
132 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...

OVERVIEW: A SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE TRACKING EAST INTO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS TO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY 18Z AND
THE CAROLINA COAST BY 21-00Z. AN ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
CENTERED NEAR ROCK HILL SC (JUST SOUTH OF CHARLOTTE) AT 14Z... IS
PROGGED TO TRACK EAST TO FLORENCE SC/LUMBERTON NC BY 18Z AND THE
CAROLINA COAST BY 00Z THIS EVENING. FURTHER UPSTREAM...POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CENTERED IN VICINITY OF NORTHERN IL AT 14Z WILL
TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...PROGRESS THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...AND MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE TONIGHT.

PRECIP: EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP BETWEEN 15-21Z ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE HWY 64 CORRIDOR WHERE 925-850 MB WARM ADVECTION...WEAK
DPVA...AND MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY (250-500 J/KG MUCAPE)
SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS. IN THIS AREA (NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/NE COASTAL PLAIN)...WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND SHALLOW/
MARGINAL INSTABILITY (CAPE SITUATED ALMOST ENTIRELY BELOW THE -10C
ISOTHERM) SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDER. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE NE
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE DIURNAL TIMING OF APPROACHING DPVA AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE BETTER. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN SOUTH OF HWY 64. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE GREATEST
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 15-20Z AS THE SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC
LOW TRACK EAST IN VICINITY OF THE SC/NC BORDER INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION /EROSION OF CINH/ MAY
NOT OCCUR UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH POINT THE NARROW WARM
SECTOR WILL MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SANDHILLS AND SE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL INDICATE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION BETWEEN 16-20Z FROM
SCOTLAND/HOKE COUNTIES NORTHEAST TO WILSON/EDGECOMBE COUNTIES.

TEMPS: MID/UPPER 60S FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT (VA BORDER) TO LOW/MID
80S FAR SOUTH (NEAR SC BORDER). LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S FAR NORTH TO UPPER 50S /NEAR 60F/ FAR SOUTH/SE.

SEVERE: DEEP LAYER SHEAR RANGES FROM ~30 KT NEAR THE SC BORDER TO
~40 KT NEAR THE VA BORDER. AT 14Z...THE BEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 925 MB LOW) WAS SHIFTING INTO EASTERN NC IN
ADVANCE OF THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING 925 MB LOW...AND IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FURTHER EAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE
RELATIVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SEVERE STORM IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN BETWEEN 16-20Z...PRIMARILY IN WAYNE/WILSON/EDGECOMBE COUNTIES
WHERE ANY SFC-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN THE NARROW WARM
SECTOR WILL ENCOUNTER 1) GREATER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND 2)
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT).
PRIMARY HAZARD APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL COULD NOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY ROTATING UPDRAFTS. ISOLD TOR
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN/COASTAL NC WHERE
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ADVANCING 925 MB LOW. -VINCENT


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM THURSDAY...

A TROUGH ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES FRI...THEN OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT. DESPITE THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THE TROUGH...HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
UNDERWAY OVER VA AND THE CAROLINAS...IN THE WAKE OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSEQUENTLY BUILD EAST FROM THE TN VALLEY ON FRI
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD MIDDLE ATLANTIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH...
FOLLOWED BY THE FRI NIGHT PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT RESULTING FROM
THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S ON FRI...WITH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES
OWING TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES FRI NIGHT WILL
LIKELY VARY WILDLY...WITH PE-FRONTAL RADIATIONAL COOLING INITIALLY;
THEN MIXING AND ASSOCIATED WARMING WITH FROPA; AND ENDING WITH CAA
LATE...WITH LOWS BY THE END OF THE NIGHT IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM THURSDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VERY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
THE PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. INITIALLY...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BRINING COOLER
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL NC FOR SATURDAY BEFORE THE HIGH SLIDES
OFFSHORE AND SETS UP EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
SOUTHERLY (ALTHOUGH LIGHT) AND BEGIN A WARMING TREND THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ON SATURDAY BUT STEADILY RISING A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY UP TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS
WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN...RISING A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY
FROM THE UPPER 50S ON SATURDAY NIGHT UP TO THE UPPER 60S BY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA. LATE IN THE PERIOD...A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND THERE IS A LITTLE
DISCREPANCY ON TIMING BUT MODELS THIS MORNING LOOK TO HOLD OFF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS AND THEREFORE HAVE CUT BACK POPS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...INTRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN CHANCE IN THE WEST...SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR CEILINGS AT INT/GSO WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY VFR THIS EVENING AS A DRIER
AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST. FURTHER
EAST AT RDU/FAY/RWI...MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH ~21Z THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE CONVECTION CLEARS A GIVEN TERMINAL
AND PASSES TO THE EAST...A SHORT PERIOD (1-3 HR) OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW CEILINGS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
ADVECT SOUTHEASTWARD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS EVENING (~00Z)
FROM WEST/NW TO EAST/SE AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS OFFSHORE AND A DRIER
AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REST OF CENTRAL NC.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN ASSOC/W HIGH PRESSURE. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT




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