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000
FXUS62 KRAH 310758
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
358 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MERGE TONIGHT WITH A
STRONGER LOW ATTENDING A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING SOUTH
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THE MERGED LOW WILL THEN UNDERGO RAPID DEEPENING AS IT APPROACHES
AND MOVES OFFSHORE THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS EARLY SAT...BEFORE
TURNING NORTHEASTWARD UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATER SAT AND SAT
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...

RELATIVE CALM BEFORE THE STORM TODAY. A NARROW RIDGE OF 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED AT 07Z OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND WESTERN
CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...IN BETWEEN A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW ALONG
THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND A TRIO OF FLATTER WAVES OVER NORTHERN MS; WESTERN KY;
AND NORTHERN MI. ALOFT...THREE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE
EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE WAVES - ONE
OFF THE SE COAST...ANOTHER OVER THE MID-SOUTH...AND THE MOST POTENT
ONE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

THE LATEST SUITE OF NWP GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
SHARPLY AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW
EVOLUTION THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...AND THE ACCOMPANYING PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO CROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST
LOW LEVEL CAA AND ALREADY-ONLY MARGINAL OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY WET
FLAKES HAS CONSEQUENTLY SHIFTED SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN NC PIEDMONT.
THE RELATIVE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN...AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS...WILL ALSO ACCORDINGLY BE FOCUSED IN AN ARC FROM WESTERN NC
TO NORTHERN SC TO EASTERN NC...AS THE SURFACE LOW AND DEFORMATION
ZONE EVOLVE IN A REGION OF STRONG ASCENT FUELED BY BOTH THE
"DYNAMICS" ALOFT AND STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FGEN.

THE WEAK LEAD SURFACE WAVES OVER NORTHERN MS AND WESTERN KY ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE EAST...BENEATH THE PARENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...AND MERGE INTO A SINGLE LOW IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LEE LOW WILL THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY
AS THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANYING THE POTENT SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFYING SHARPLY SSE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS CAUSES ALLOWS THE TRAILING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MI
AND ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS TO CATCH UP TO AND "CAPTURE" THE LEAD
LEE LOW...WITH THE THEN MERGED SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO MOVE DUE EAST
INVOF THE SC/NC BORDER TONIGHT.

SHALLOW CONVECTION...INCLUDING SPORADIC LIGHTNING IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE OF UP TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG...WILL EASE EAST
FROM THE SC UPSTATE AND NC FOOTHILLS...INTO THE NC SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT ROUGHLY BETWEEN 7-10 PM. THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THOSE AREAS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BEFORE THE CHARACTER OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSUMES
AN INCREASINGLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH EMBEDDED
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LINGERING OWING TO STRONG MID LEVEL CAA
ATOP A WARM/MOIST TONGUE WRAPPED CYCLONICALLY BENEATH THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...AROUND THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CYCLONE. RAIN...WITH
ASSOCIATED AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH...WILL CONSEQUENTLY
GRADUALLY PIVOT ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR NE PIEDMONT LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND AMOUNTS LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. FORECAST PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES HOLD IN THE
INDETERMINATE RANGE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC FROM EVEN THE COLDEST
EC/NAM GUIDANCE...AND BUFR SOUNDINGS EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT LIKEWISE MAINTAIN A COUPLE OF THOUSAND FT ABOVE
FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER.  LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE
40S FROM WEST TO EAST...AFTER HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM FRIDAY...

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN RAH CWFA...WHILE THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT REMAINS IN A RELATIVE
MINIMUM OF OF JUST SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN...AND THE MOUNTAIN
SHADOW/DOWNSLOPE FLOW ERODE THE RAIN AND CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP SAT...FIRST OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS THE MIXED LAYER DEEPENS WITH DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...THEN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NE PIEDMONT OWING TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND WHAT WILL BECOME A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING PRIMARY COASTAL LOW OFF THE NC COAST. WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH ARE LIKELY IN BOTH AREAS...WITH
SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS OVER THE TRIANGLE. WINDS WILL VEER TO NW SAT
NIGHT...BUT CONTINUE IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS...AND GRADUALLY LESSENING WINDS TO THE WEST. IF
A WIND ADVISORY WERE TRULY NEEDED...IT WOULD LIKELY BE FOR THE LATE
SAT-SAT NIGHT TIME FRAME OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWFA. NEAR
STEADY...TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT SAT...THEN CAA-DRIVEN LOWS IN THE 30S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM FRIDAY...

STRONG COASTAL STORM WILL BE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST...
WITH A STRONG 1032 MB HIGH BUILDING IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY. GUSTY
WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR ON SUNDAY... WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT... SETTING THE STAGE FOR
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING... AND LIKELY FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS
MONDAY MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY... WITH HIGHS NEAR 60. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST ON TUESDAY... AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE INTO
THE 60S AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER... AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH
AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED... AND MODEL QPF IS CONSEQUENTLY
NEAR 0 ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS
TIME... BUT IF THE CURRENT TREND FOR A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
CONTINUES... EVEN THIS MAY BE OVERDONE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST

        LO-MAX

RDU     50/1925
GSO     45/1925
FAY     48/1988

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 00Z
SATURDAY... AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND INTO OUR AREA WHILE SHIFTING
EASTWARD TODAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR/MVFR VISBYS AT FOG PRONE KRWI. OTHERWISE... WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY.
MEANWHILE... A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
AREA TODAY... ALLOWING FOR VFR CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE GENERALLY IN
A WEST TO EAST FASHION TODAY WITH PRECIP AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY AROUND 03Z FOR SO. MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY FALL QUICKLY TO IFR/LIFR BY
AROUND 06Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS
OF RAIN AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS THE POTENT
SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.



&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...SEC
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...BSD/CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 310754
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
353 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA INTO
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TONIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AN
EARLY SEASON NOR EASTER WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKS INTO THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...

RELATIVE CALM BEFORE THE STORM TODAY. A NARROW RIDGE OF 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED AT 07Z OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND WESTERN
CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...IN BETWEEN A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW ALONG
THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS AND A TRIO OF FLATTER WAVES OVER NORTHERN MS; WESTERN KY;
AND NORTHERN MI. ALOFT...THREE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE
EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE WAVES - ONE
OFF THE SE COAST...ANOTHER OVER THE MID-SOUTH...AND THE MOST POTENT
ONE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

THE LATEST SUITE OF NWP GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
SHARPLY AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW
EVOLUTION THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...AND THE ACCOMPANYING PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO CROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST
LOW LEVEL CAA AND ALREADY-ONLY MARGINAL OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY WET
FLAKES HAS CONSEQUENTLY SHIFTED SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN NC PIEDMONT.
THE RELATIVE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN...AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS...WILL ALSO ACCORDINGLY BE FOCUSED IN AN ARC FROM WESTERN NC
TO NORTHERN SC TO EASTERN NC...AS THE SURFACE LOW AND DEFORMATION
ZONE EVOLVE IN A REGION OF STRONG ASCENT FUELED BY BOTH THE
"DYNAMICS" ALOFT AND STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FGEN.

THE WEAK LEAD SURFACE WAVES OVER NORTHERN MS AND WESTERN KY ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE EAST...BENEATH THE PARENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...AND MERGE INTO A SINGLE LOW IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LEE LOW WILL THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY
AS THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANYING THE POTENT SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFYING SHARPLY SSE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS CAUSES ALLOWS THE TRAILING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MI
AND ASSOCIATED PRESSURE FALLS TO CATCH UP TO AND "CAPTURE" THE LEAD
LEE LOW...WITH THE THEN MERGED SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO MOVE DUE EAST
INVOF THE SC/NC BORDER TONIGHT.

SHALLOW CONVECTION...INCLUDING SPORADIC LIGHTNING IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE OF UP TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG...WILL EASE EAST
FROM THE SC UPSTATE AND NC FOOTHILLS...INTO THE NC SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT ROUGHLY BETWEEN 7-10 PM. THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THOSE AREAS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BEFORE THE CHARACTER OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSUMES
AN INCREASINGLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH EMBEDDED
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LINGERING OWING TO STRONG MID LEVEL CAA
ATOP A WARM/MOIST TONGUE WRAPPED CYCLONICALLY BENEATH THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...AROUND THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CYCLONE. RAIN...WITH
ASSOCIATED AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH...WILL CONSEQUENTLY
GRADUALLY PIVOT ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT THROUGH
DAYBREAK...WITH MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR NE PIEDMONT LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND AMOUNTS LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH. FORECAST PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES HOLD IN THE
INDETERMINATE RANGE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC FROM EVEN THE COLDEST
EC/NAM GUIDANCE...AND BUFR SOUNDINGS EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT LIKEWISE MAINTAIN A COUPLE OF THOUSAND FT ABOVE
FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER.  LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE
40S FROM WEST TO EAST...AFTER HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM FRIDAY...

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN RAH CWFA...WHILE THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT REMAINS IN A RELATIVE
MINIMUM OF OF JUST SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN...AND THE MOUNTAIN
SHADOW/DOWNSLOPE FLOW ERODE THE RAIN AND CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP SAT...FIRST OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS THE MIXED LAYER DEEPENS WITH DOWNSLOPE
FLOW...THEN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NE PIEDMONT OWING TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND WHAT WILL BECOME A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING PRIMARY COASTAL LOW OFF THE NC COAST. WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH ARE LIKELY IN BOTH AREAS...WITH
SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS OVER THE TRIANGLE. WINDS WILL VEER TO NW SAT
NIGHT...BUT CONTINUE IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS...AND GRADUALLY LESSENING WINDS TO THE WEST. IF
A WIND ADVISORY WERE TRULY NEEDED...IT WOULD LIKELY BE FOR THE LATE
SAT-SAT NIGHT TIME FRAME OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWFA. NEAR
STEADY...TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT SAT...THEN CAA-DRIVEN LOWS IN THE 30S SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM FRIDAY...

STRONG COASTAL STORM WILL BE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST...
WITH A STRONG 1032 MB HIGH BUILDING IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY. GUSTY
WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR ON SUNDAY... WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT... SETTING THE STAGE FOR
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING... AND LIKELY FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS
MONDAY MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY... WITH HIGHS NEAR 60. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST ON TUESDAY... AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE INTO
THE 60S AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER... AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH
AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED... AND MODEL QPF IS CONSEQUENTLY
NEAR 0 ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS
TIME... BUT IF THE CURRENT TREND FOR A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
CONTINUES... EVEN THIS MAY BE OVERDONE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST

        LO-MAX

RDU     50/1925
GSO     45/1925
FAY     48/1988

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 00Z
SATURDAY... AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND INTO OUR AREA WHILE SHIFTING
EASTWARD TODAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR/MVFR VISBYS AT FOG PRONE KRWI. OTHERWISE... WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY.
MEANWHILE... A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
AREA TODAY... ALLOWING FOR VFR CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE GENERALLY IN
A WEST TO EAST FASHION TODAY WITH PRECIP AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY AROUND 03Z FOR SO. MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY FALL QUICKLY TO IFR/LIFR BY
AROUND 06Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS
OF RAIN AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS THE POTENT
SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.



&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...SEC
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...BSD/CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 310716
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
316 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA INTO
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TONIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AN
EARLY SEASON NOR EASTER WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKS INTO THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...

OVERNIGHT: SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MS
RIVER VALLEY ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN AMPLIFICATION OF THE
MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT AS IT
TRACKS INTO AL/GA. THOUGH BROAD/MODEST HEIGHT FALLS (60 METER/12-HR
AT 500 MB) WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC AND RESULT IN
GRADUAL MID-LEVEL COOLING/MOISTENING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...AN
INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS (0.35" PWAT PER 00Z GSO SOUNDING) AND LACK OF
STRONG/FOCUSED DPVA WILL ENSURE BENIGN WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BY MORNING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/
LOWER 40S WHERE WINDS REMAIN CALM IN THE TYPICAL RURAL/LOW-LYING
AREAS TO MID 40S WHERE A LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE PERSISTS. -VINCENT

FRIDAY: DPVA FROM PASSAGE OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
WEAK LIFT WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES/ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY FRIDAY/EARLY FRIDAY EVENING IN
PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS PUSHING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS A GOOD CATEGORY
COOLER...POSSIBLY 2 CATEGORIES COOLER IN THE TRIAD. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S NW PIEDMONT TO MID 60S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT: POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN
OHIO/TN VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING WILL CLOSE OFF AND WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND INVOF THE UPSTATE SC/SOUTHWEST NC BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. INTENSE SFC CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE NC/SC COAST
WILL ENSUE BETWEEN 00 TO 12Z SATURDAY...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A
STRONG POLAR FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.  CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY FRIDAY EVENING-FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP F-
GEN RESPONSE IN A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION BAND PROGGED TO SET UP
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...THOUGH THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND LOCATION.

WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST
OF THE LITTLE TRICK TREATERS DRY...ALTHOUGH RESIDENTS IN THE TRIAD
MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN IF THEY STAY OUT MUCH
AFTER 9PM. BY DAYBREAK...EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
MORNING. COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ATOP STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL
SUPPORT A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
UNDERNEATH THE STEEP MID-LEVEL RATES WITHIN THE DEFORMATION BAND
COULD SUPPORT A DUSTING ON ELEVATED SURFACES. TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE
HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WARM GROUND TEMPS. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE.  -CBL

FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT: SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONCERN OURSELVES WITH...
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FROZEN PRECIP IN THE WRN
PIEDMONT... BRISK WINDS... AND A POSSIBLE KILLING FREEZE THIS
WEEKEND.

OVERVIEW: HIGHLY ANOMALOUS (HEIGHTS DROPPING TO AROUND 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL) MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA LATE
FRI IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST... TO NEAR
AVL BY SAT MORNING... CROSSING SC SAT BEFORE SWINGING NE OFF THE NC
COAST SAT NIGHT. THE GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE OVER SC (NEARLY
180 M IN 12 HRS) BUT STILL IMPRESSIVE AT 100-150 M OVER CENTRAL/SRN
NC. AT THE SURFACE... WEAKER PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NC
COAST FRI NIGHT WILL MOVE NE AS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NC... TRACKING EAST WHILE DEEPENING OVER THE SRN NC
COAST THROUGH SAT MORNING... THEN STRENGTHENING JUST OFF THE OUTER
BANKS THROUGH LATE SAT.

POPS: GIVEN THE INTENSE DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT... PEAK IN MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION... AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT... AN UPTICK IN POPS TO CATEGORICAL EXTENDING THROUGH MUCH
OF SAT APPEARS WARRANTED. THE HIGHER POPS SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS... OR THE WRN AND SRN CWA...
WHERE DPVA WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND WHERE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE DIVING JET TO OUR WEST WILL BE STRENGTHENING...
ALL YIELDING DEEP AND VIGOROUS DYNAMIC LIFT. WILL BE SLOWER TO TAPER
DOWN POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND ERN CWA GIVEN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES
AND GREATER DEFORMATION HERE... PLUS ADDITIONAL WEAKER SHEARED
VORTICITY WILL BE DIVING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW.

PTYPE AND THUNDER: WHILE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER (MORE
REASONABLY SO) WITH THE SKIN AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS... LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT THE FREEZING LEVEL IN THE TRIAD FALLING
BELOW 1000 FT SAT MORNING... AS THE STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW
INTENSIFIES LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO OUR FAR NRN AND WRN
CWA. AN EXPECTED SATURATED NEAR-FREEZING ISOTHERMAL LAYER UP TO
AROUND 850 MB IS TOPPED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0 C/KM AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP THROUGH -25C... WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORTS SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN OVER THE
WRN PIEDMONT LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE
HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WARM GROUND TEMPS... HOWEVER A LIGHT
DUSTING ON ELEVATED SURFACES IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING HOW
INTENSE THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WITH WHAT SHOULD BE AN
INCREDIBLE AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW... OTHERWISE ATYPICAL LATE-OCTOBER WEATHER
INCLUDING A POTENTIAL LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW ON ELEVATED SURFACE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. REGARDING THUNDER CHANCES... PREDICTED MUCAPE
WILL REMAIN LOW AND CONFINED LARGELY TO THE COASTAL AREAS... HOWEVER
THE NAM DOES INDICATE 100-200 J/KG OVER THE SW/SRN CWA FRI NIGHT...
AND WITH EXPECTED STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND STRONG ASCENT THROUGH
SAT MORNING COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR... A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR... BUT SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT ANY CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS THAT MAY DEVELOP AND ANY RESULTING HEAVIER PRECIP RATES
COULD RAISE THE RISK OF A DUSTING OF SNOW ON ELEVATED SURFACES.

WINDS: IT SHOULD TAKE AWHILE FOR THE SURFACE WINDS TO PICK UP SAT...
GIVEN THE INITIAL SLACK GRADIENT AS THE SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NC. AS THIS LOW SHIFTS EAST AND OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS
DURING THE DAY AND SAT NIGHT... THE RAPIDLY TIGHTENING GRADIENT
SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS PEAKING AT 15-20 KTS (POTENTIALLY
HIGHER IN SPOTS) IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. STILL EXPECT
GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS. THIS IS JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA... BUT
IMPACT-WISE WE SHOULD STILL SEE LIGHT OBJECTS GETTING TOSSED AROUND
AND A FEW BRANCHES COMING DOWN... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT MOST
LEAVES ARE STILL ON THE TREES. WIND CHILLS MAY HOLD IN THE 30S OVER
THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY.

TEMPS: PATTERN OF EARLIER FORECASTS TO UNDERCUT STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
SUBSTANTIALLY STILL APPEARS PRUDENT... WITH A CHILLY CANADIAN-SOURCE
AIR MASS MOVING IN... STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION... STEADY
PRECIP FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY... AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.
EXPECT HIGHS FROM 44 TO 53... ORIENTED ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST...
ALTHOUGH HIGHS IN THE ERN CWA WILL BE AROUND MIDDAY WITH TEMPS
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWS 32-37 WEST-TO-
EAST... AS THE OVERNIGHT MIXING SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT...
LEAVING THE BETTER CHANCE OF A KILLING FROST/FREEZE EVENT FOR SUN
NIGHT. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM FRIDAY...

STRONG COASTAL STORM WILL BE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE COAST...
WITH A STRONG 1032 MB HIGH BUILDING IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY. GUSTY
WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR ON SUNDAY... WITH DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT... SETTING THE STAGE FOR
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING... AND LIKELY FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS
MONDAY MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY... WITH HIGHS NEAR 60. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST ON TUESDAY... AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE INTO
THE 60S AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER... AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH
AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED... AND MODEL QPF IS CONSEQUENTLY
NEAR 0 ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS
TIME... BUT IF THE CURRENT TREND FOR A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
CONTINUES... EVEN THIS MAY BE OVERDONE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST

        LO-MAX

RDU     50/1925
GSO     45/1925
FAY     48/1988

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 00Z
SATURDAY... AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND INTO OUR AREA WHILE SHIFTING
EASTWARD TODAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR/MVFR VISBYS AT FOG PRONE KRWI. OTHERWISE... WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY.
MEANWHILE... A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
AREA TODAY... ALLOWING FOR VFR CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE GENERALLY IN
A WEST TO EAST FASHION TODAY WITH PRECIP AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY AROUND 03Z FOR SO. MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY FALL QUICKLY TO IFR/LIFR BY
AROUND 06Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS
OF RAIN AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS THE POTENT
SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.



&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...SEC
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...BSD/CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 310554
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
153 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA INTO
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TONIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AN
EARLY SEASON NOR EASTER WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKS INTO THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...

OVERNIGHT: SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MS
RIVER VALLEY ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN AMPLIFICATION OF THE
MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT AS IT
TRACKS INTO AL/GA. THOUGH BROAD/MODEST HEIGHT FALLS (60 METER/12-HR
AT 500 MB) WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC AND RESULT IN
GRADUAL MID-LEVEL COOLING/MOISTENING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...AN
INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS (0.35" PWAT PER 00Z GSO SOUNDING) AND LACK OF
STRONG/FOCUSED DPVA WILL ENSURE BENIGN WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BY MORNING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/
LOWER 40S WHERE WINDS REMAIN CALM IN THE TYPICAL RURAL/LOW-LYING
AREAS TO MID 40S WHERE A LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE PERSISTS. -VINCENT

FRIDAY: DPVA FROM PASSAGE OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
WEAK LIFT WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES/ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY FRIDAY/EARLY FRIDAY EVENING IN
PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS PUSHING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS A GOOD CATEGORY
COOLER...POSSIBLY 2 CATEGORIES COOLER IN THE TRIAD. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S NW PIEDMONT TO MID 60S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT: POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN
OHIO/TN VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING WILL CLOSE OFF AND WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND INVOF THE UPSTATE SC/SOUTHWEST NC BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. INTENSE SFC CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE NC/SC COAST
WILL ENSUE BETWEEN 00 TO 12Z SATURDAY...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A
STRONG POLAR FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.  CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY FRIDAY EVENING-FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP F-
GEN RESPONSE IN A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION BAND PROGGED TO SET UP
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...THOUGH THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND LOCATION.

WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST
OF THE LITTLE TRICK TREATERS DRY...ALTHOUGH RESIDENTS IN THE TRIAD
MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN IF THEY STAY OUT MUCH
AFTER 9PM. BY DAYBREAK...EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
MORNING. COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ATOP STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL
SUPPORT A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
UNDERNEATH THE STEEP MID-LEVEL RATES WITHIN THE DEFORMATION BAND
COULD SUPPORT A DUSTING ON ELEVATED SURFACES. TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE
HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WARM GROUND TEMPS. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE.  -CBL

FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT: SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONCERN OURSELVES WITH...
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FROZEN PRECIP IN THE WRN
PIEDMONT... BRISK WINDS... AND A POSSIBLE KILLING FREEZE THIS
WEEKEND.

OVERVIEW: HIGHLY ANOMALOUS (HEIGHTS DROPPING TO AROUND 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL) MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA LATE
FRI IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST... TO NEAR
AVL BY SAT MORNING... CROSSING SC SAT BEFORE SWINGING NE OFF THE NC
COAST SAT NIGHT. THE GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE OVER SC (NEARLY
180 M IN 12 HRS) BUT STILL IMPRESSIVE AT 100-150 M OVER CENTRAL/SRN
NC. AT THE SURFACE... WEAKER PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NC
COAST FRI NIGHT WILL MOVE NE AS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NC... TRACKING EAST WHILE DEEPENING OVER THE SRN NC
COAST THROUGH SAT MORNING... THEN STRENGTHENING JUST OFF THE OUTER
BANKS THROUGH LATE SAT.

POPS: GIVEN THE INTENSE DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT... PEAK IN MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION... AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT... AN UPTICK IN POPS TO CATEGORICAL EXTENDING THROUGH MUCH
OF SAT APPEARS WARRANTED. THE HIGHER POPS SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS... OR THE WRN AND SRN CWA...
WHERE DPVA WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND WHERE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE DIVING JET TO OUR WEST WILL BE STRENGTHENING...
ALL YIELDING DEEP AND VIGOROUS DYNAMIC LIFT. WILL BE SLOWER TO TAPER
DOWN POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND ERN CWA GIVEN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES
AND GREATER DEFORMATION HERE... PLUS ADDITIONAL WEAKER SHEARED
VORTICITY WILL BE DIVING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW.

PTYPE AND THUNDER: WHILE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER (MORE
REASONABLY SO) WITH THE SKIN AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS... LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT THE FREEZING LEVEL IN THE TRIAD FALLING
BELOW 1000 FT SAT MORNING... AS THE STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW
INTENSIFIES LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO OUR FAR NRN AND WRN
CWA. AN EXPECTED SATURATED NEAR-FREEZING ISOTHERMAL LAYER UP TO
AROUND 850 MB IS TOPPED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0 C/KM AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP THROUGH -25C... WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORTS SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN OVER THE
WRN PIEDMONT LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE
HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WARM GROUND TEMPS... HOWEVER A LIGHT
DUSTING ON ELEVATED SURFACES IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING HOW
INTENSE THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WITH WHAT SHOULD BE AN
INCREDIBLE AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW... OTHERWISE ATYPICAL LATE-OCTOBER WEATHER
INCLUDING A POTENTIAL LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW ON ELEVATED SURFACE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. REGARDING THUNDER CHANCES... PREDICTED MUCAPE
WILL REMAIN LOW AND CONFINED LARGELY TO THE COASTAL AREAS... HOWEVER
THE NAM DOES INDICATE 100-200 J/KG OVER THE SW/SRN CWA FRI NIGHT...
AND WITH EXPECTED STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND STRONG ASCENT THROUGH
SAT MORNING COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR... A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR... BUT SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT ANY CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS THAT MAY DEVELOP AND ANY RESULTING HEAVIER PRECIP RATES
COULD RAISE THE RISK OF A DUSTING OF SNOW ON ELEVATED SURFACES.

WINDS: IT SHOULD TAKE AWHILE FOR THE SURFACE WINDS TO PICK UP SAT...
GIVEN THE INITIAL SLACK GRADIENT AS THE SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NC. AS THIS LOW SHIFTS EAST AND OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS
DURING THE DAY AND SAT NIGHT... THE RAPIDLY TIGHTENING GRADIENT
SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS PEAKING AT 15-20 KTS (POTENTIALLY
HIGHER IN SPOTS) IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. STILL EXPECT
GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS. THIS IS JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA... BUT
IMPACT-WISE WE SHOULD STILL SEE LIGHT OBJECTS GETTING TOSSED AROUND
AND A FEW BRANCHES COMING DOWN... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT MOST
LEAVES ARE STILL ON THE TREES. WIND CHILLS MAY HOLD IN THE 30S OVER
THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY.

TEMPS: PATTERN OF EARLIER FORECASTS TO UNDERCUT STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
SUBSTANTIALLY STILL APPEARS PRUDENT... WITH A CHILLY CANADIAN-SOURCE
AIR MASS MOVING IN... STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION... STEADY
PRECIP FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY... AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.
EXPECT HIGHS FROM 44 TO 53... ORIENTED ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST...
ALTHOUGH HIGHS IN THE ERN CWA WILL BE AROUND MIDDAY WITH TEMPS
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWS 32-37 WEST-TO-
EAST... AS THE OVERNIGHT MIXING SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT...
LEAVING THE BETTER CHANCE OF A KILLING FROST/FREEZE EVENT FOR SUN
NIGHT. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1205 PM THURSDAY...

FOR SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO OUR
EAST SUN... AND WHILE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY LINGER EARLY AS ONE LAST
SPEED MAX ALOFT CROSSES THE AREA... THE DEEP DRYING AND
WARMING/SINKING MID LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST EARLY SUN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN
CWA AS THE MSLP GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT... AS THE COASTAL LOW SLOWLY
PULLS NE AWAY FROM NC. THIS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD ENSURE THAT
TEMPS HOLD UP A BIT SUN MORNING... HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PASSES OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING... TEMPS ARE VERY LIKELY TO
DROP TO NEAR OR JUST UNDER FREEZING... COLDEST IN THE WEST. A DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ASSUMPTION WITH A SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MIXED LAYER
ON SUNDAY SUPPORTS HIGHS OF 52-57. LOWS SUN NIGHT 27-34... WITH THE
LOWER NUMBERS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER OUTLYING AREAS. ONE POTENTIAL
CAVEAT: A SLUG OF MOISTURE AROUND 700 MB (ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE
NORTHEAST-MOVING WARM FRONT ALOFT) AND AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE
PATTERN (INCLUDING INCREASING NW WINDS FROM THE INVERSION ALOFT UP
TO THE TROPOPAUSE) WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING... AND IF THIS OCCURS... IT MAY HOLD
TEMPS UP A BIT IN THE NW PIEDMONT. STAY TUNED. MID LEVEL RIDGING
THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST MON/MON NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MODIFIES ACCORDINGLY.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 MON. WITH A LIGHT WSW
SURFACE FLOW AND MILD THICKNESSES... HAVE LOWS MON NIGHT OF 33-36.

FOR TUE-THU: THE WARMING TREND WILL BE IN FULL SWING WITH
THICKNESSES TRENDING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL... AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND EXPANDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. BY MIDWEEK...
TROUGHING NOW WELL OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH WRN
NOAM... CULMINATING IN MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND
OVER NRN MEXICO AND TX. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW LATE WED INTO THU... AND WHILE IT MAY NOT ACTUALLY GET
INTO NC BY THU AS THE RIDGE LOOKS PRETTY POTENT... WE`RE LIKELY TO
SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AT THE VERY LEAST... AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS
AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS DRAWN IN. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TUE IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S... CLIMBING TO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR WED/THU. -GIH

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST

        LO-MAX

RDU     50/1925
GSO     45/1925
FAY     48/1988

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 00Z
SATURDAY... AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING WILL EXTEND INTO OUR AREA WHILE SHIFTING
EASTWARD TODAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR/MVFR VISBYS AT FOG PRONE KRWI. OTHERWISE... WINDS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY.
MEANWHILE... A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
AREA TODAY... ALLOWING FOR VFR CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE GENERALLY IN
A WEST TO EAST FASHION TODAY WITH PRECIP AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY AROUND 03Z FOR SO. MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY FALL QUICKLY TO IFR/LIFR BY
AROUND 06Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS
OF RAIN AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AS THE POTENT
SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA.



&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...BSD/CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 310127
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
927 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA INTO
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TONIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AN
EARLY SEASON NOR EASTER WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKS INTO THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM THURSDAY...

OVERNIGHT: SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MS
RIVER VALLEY ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN AMPLIFICATION OF THE
MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN PLACE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT AS IT
TRACKS INTO AL/GA. THOUGH BROAD/MODEST HEIGHT FALLS (60 METER/12-HR
AT 500 MB) WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC AND RESULT IN
GRADUAL MID-LEVEL COOLING/MOISTENING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...AN
INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS (0.35" PWAT PER 00Z GSO SOUNDING) AND LACK OF
STRONG/FOCUSED DPVA WILL ENSURE BENIGN WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BY MORNING. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/
LOWER 40S WHERE WINDS REMAIN CALM IN THE TYPICAL RURAL/LOW-LYING
AREAS TO MID 40S WHERE A LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE PERSISTS. -VINCENT

FRIDAY: DPVA FROM PASSAGE OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
WEAK LIFT WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES/ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY FRIDAY/EARLY FRIDAY EVENING IN
PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS PUSHING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS A GOOD CATEGORY
COOLER...POSSIBLY 2 CATEGORIES COOLER IN THE TRIAD. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S NW PIEDMONT TO MID 60S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT: POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN
OHIO/TN VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING WILL CLOSE OFF AND WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND INVOF THE UPSTATE SC/SOUTHWEST NC BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. INTENSE SFC CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE NC/SC COAST
WILL ENSUE BETWEEN 00 TO 12Z SATURDAY...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A
STRONG POLAR FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.  CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY FRIDAY EVENING-FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP F-
GEN RESPONSE IN A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION BAND PROGGED TO SET UP
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...THOUGH THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND LOCATION.

WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST
OF THE LITTLE TRICK TREATERS DRY...ALTHOUGH RESIDENTS IN THE TRIAD
MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN IF THEY STAY OUT MUCH
AFTER 9PM. BY DAYBREAK...EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
MORNING. COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ATOP STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL
SUPPORT A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
UNDERNEATH THE STEEP MID-LEVEL RATES WITHIN THE DEFORMATION BAND
COULD SUPPORT A DUSTING ON ELEVATED SURFACES. TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE
HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WARM GROUND TEMPS. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE.  -CBL

FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT: SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONCERN OURSELVES WITH...
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FROZEN PRECIP IN THE WRN
PIEDMONT... BRISK WINDS... AND A POSSIBLE KILLING FREEZE THIS
WEEKEND.

OVERVIEW: HIGHLY ANOMALOUS (HEIGHTS DROPPING TO AROUND 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL) MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA LATE
FRI IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST... TO NEAR
AVL BY SAT MORNING... CROSSING SC SAT BEFORE SWINGING NE OFF THE NC
COAST SAT NIGHT. THE GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE OVER SC (NEARLY
180 M IN 12 HRS) BUT STILL IMPRESSIVE AT 100-150 M OVER CENTRAL/SRN
NC. AT THE SURFACE... WEAKER PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NC
COAST FRI NIGHT WILL MOVE NE AS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NC... TRACKING EAST WHILE DEEPENING OVER THE SRN NC
COAST THROUGH SAT MORNING... THEN STRENGTHENING JUST OFF THE OUTER
BANKS THROUGH LATE SAT.

POPS: GIVEN THE INTENSE DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT... PEAK IN MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION... AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT... AN UPTICK IN POPS TO CATEGORICAL EXTENDING THROUGH MUCH
OF SAT APPEARS WARRANTED. THE HIGHER POPS SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS... OR THE WRN AND SRN CWA...
WHERE DPVA WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND WHERE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE DIVING JET TO OUR WEST WILL BE STRENGTHENING...
ALL YIELDING DEEP AND VIGOROUS DYNAMIC LIFT. WILL BE SLOWER TO TAPER
DOWN POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND ERN CWA GIVEN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES
AND GREATER DEFORMATION HERE... PLUS ADDITIONAL WEAKER SHEARED
VORTICITY WILL BE DIVING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW.

PTYPE AND THUNDER: WHILE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER (MORE
REASONABLY SO) WITH THE SKIN AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS... LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT THE FREEZING LEVEL IN THE TRIAD FALLING
BELOW 1000 FT SAT MORNING... AS THE STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW
INTENSIFIES LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO OUR FAR NRN AND WRN
CWA. AN EXPECTED SATURATED NEAR-FREEZING ISOTHERMAL LAYER UP TO
AROUND 850 MB IS TOPPED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0 C/KM AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP THROUGH -25C... WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORTS SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN OVER THE
WRN PIEDMONT LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE
HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WARM GROUND TEMPS... HOWEVER A LIGHT
DUSTING ON ELEVATED SURFACES IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING HOW
INTENSE THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WITH WHAT SHOULD BE AN
INCREDIBLE AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW... OTHERWISE ATYPICAL LATE-OCTOBER WEATHER
INCLUDING A POTENTIAL LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW ON ELEVATED SURFACE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. REGARDING THUNDER CHANCES... PREDICTED MUCAPE
WILL REMAIN LOW AND CONFINED LARGELY TO THE COASTAL AREAS... HOWEVER
THE NAM DOES INDICATE 100-200 J/KG OVER THE SW/SRN CWA FRI NIGHT...
AND WITH EXPECTED STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND STRONG ASCENT THROUGH
SAT MORNING COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR... A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR... BUT SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT ANY CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS THAT MAY DEVELOP AND ANY RESULTING HEAVIER PRECIP RATES
COULD RAISE THE RISK OF A DUSTING OF SNOW ON ELEVATED SURFACES.

WINDS: IT SHOULD TAKE AWHILE FOR THE SURFACE WINDS TO PICK UP SAT...
GIVEN THE INITIAL SLACK GRADIENT AS THE SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NC. AS THIS LOW SHIFTS EAST AND OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS
DURING THE DAY AND SAT NIGHT... THE RAPIDLY TIGHTENING GRADIENT
SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS PEAKING AT 15-20 KTS (POTENTIALLY
HIGHER IN SPOTS) IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. STILL EXPECT
GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS. THIS IS JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA... BUT
IMPACT-WISE WE SHOULD STILL SEE LIGHT OBJECTS GETTING TOSSED AROUND
AND A FEW BRANCHES COMING DOWN... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT MOST
LEAVES ARE STILL ON THE TREES. WIND CHILLS MAY HOLD IN THE 30S OVER
THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY.

TEMPS: PATTERN OF EARLIER FORECASTS TO UNDERCUT STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
SUBSTANTIALLY STILL APPEARS PRUDENT... WITH A CHILLY CANADIAN-SOURCE
AIR MASS MOVING IN... STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION... STEADY
PRECIP FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY... AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.
EXPECT HIGHS FROM 44 TO 53... ORIENTED ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST...
ALTHOUGH HIGHS IN THE ERN CWA WILL BE AROUND MIDDAY WITH TEMPS
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWS 32-37 WEST-TO-
EAST... AS THE OVERNIGHT MIXING SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT...
LEAVING THE BETTER CHANCE OF A KILLING FROST/FREEZE EVENT FOR SUN
NIGHT. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1205 PM THURSDAY...

FOR SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO OUR
EAST SUN... AND WHILE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY LINGER EARLY AS ONE LAST
SPEED MAX ALOFT CROSSES THE AREA... THE DEEP DRYING AND
WARMING/SINKING MID LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST EARLY SUN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN
CWA AS THE MSLP GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT... AS THE COASTAL LOW SLOWLY
PULLS NE AWAY FROM NC. THIS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD ENSURE THAT
TEMPS HOLD UP A BIT SUN MORNING... HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PASSES OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING... TEMPS ARE VERY LIKELY TO
DROP TO NEAR OR JUST UNDER FREEZING... COLDEST IN THE WEST. A DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ASSUMPTION WITH A SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MIXED LAYER
ON SUNDAY SUPPORTS HIGHS OF 52-57. LOWS SUN NIGHT 27-34... WITH THE
LOWER NUMBERS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER OUTLYING AREAS. ONE POTENTIAL
CAVEAT: A SLUG OF MOISTURE AROUND 700 MB (ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE
NORTHEAST-MOVING WARM FRONT ALOFT) AND AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE
PATTERN (INCLUDING INCREASING NW WINDS FROM THE INVERSION ALOFT UP
TO THE TROPOPAUSE) WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING... AND IF THIS OCCURS... IT MAY HOLD
TEMPS UP A BIT IN THE NW PIEDMONT. STAY TUNED. MID LEVEL RIDGING
THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST MON/MON NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MODIFIES ACCORDINGLY.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 MON. WITH A LIGHT WSW
SURFACE FLOW AND MILD THICKNESSES... HAVE LOWS MON NIGHT OF 33-36.

FOR TUE-THU: THE WARMING TREND WILL BE IN FULL SWING WITH
THICKNESSES TRENDING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL... AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND EXPANDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. BY MIDWEEK...
TROUGHING NOW WELL OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH WRN
NOAM... CULMINATING IN MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND
OVER NRN MEXICO AND TX. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW LATE WED INTO THU... AND WHILE IT MAY NOT ACTUALLY GET
INTO NC BY THU AS THE RIDGE LOOKS PRETTY POTENT... WE`RE LIKELY TO
SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AT THE VERY LEAST... AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS
AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS DRAWN IN. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TUE IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S... CLIMBING TO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR WED/THU. -GIH

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST

        LO-MAX

RDU     50/1925
GSO     45/1925
FAY     48/1988

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 810 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD... THOUGH SOME SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED 4-5KFT CLOUDINESS AT
KINT AND KGSO NEAR DAYBREAK/INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY...
ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME IFR/MVFR VISBYS AT FOG PRONE KRWI AGAIN
NEAR DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD HAS HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST.


OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FRIDAY EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LOW
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS WILL IMPACT THE AREA FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...BSD/CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 310020
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
820 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRI. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND ASSOCIATED STRONG CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN WET BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...

TONIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS SEWD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
DAYBREAK...WITHIN THE EVOLVING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
US AND IN ADVANCE OF A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OUT OF
EASTERN MANITOBA. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE STALLED OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE WILL ENSUE IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION. WHILE
PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...GFS TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE
CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME ENCOMPASSED BY MULTI-LAYER
CLOUDINESS...BOUNDED BY A BROKEN MID-CLOUD LAYER ON OUR WESTERN
FLANKS...WITH ENCROACHING LOW CLOUD DECK ON THE EASTERN FLANKS.
BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON OUR WESTERN AND
EASTERN FRINGES. LOW TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 40...WITH THE COOLER READINGS IN RURAL/OUTLYING AREAS WHERE WINDS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO GO CALM AT TIMES.

FRIDAY: DPVA FROM PASSAGE OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
WEAK LIFT WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES/ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY FRIDAY/EARLY FRIDAY EVENING IN
PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS PUSHING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS A GOOD CATEGORY
COOLER...POSSIBLY 2 CATEGORIES COOLER IN THE TRIAD. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S NW PIEDMONT TO MID 60S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT: POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN
OHIO/TN VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING WILL CLOSE OFF AND WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND INVOF THE UPSTATE SC/SOUTHWEST NC BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. INTENSE SFC CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE NC/SC COAST
WILL ENSUE BETWEEN 00 TO 12Z SATURDAY...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A
STRONG POLAR FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.  CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY FRIDAY EVENING-FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP F-
GEN RESPONSE IN A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION BAND PROGGED TO SET UP
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...THOUGH THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND LOCATION.

WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST
OF THE LITTLE TRICK TREATERS DRY...ALTHOUGH RESIDENTS IN THE TRIAD
MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN IF THEY STAY OUT MUCH
AFTER 9PM. BY DAYBREAK...EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
MORNING. COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ATOP STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL
SUPPORT A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
UNDERNEATH THE STEEP MID-LEVEL RATES WITHIN THE DEFORMATION BAND
COULD SUPPORT A DUSTING ON ELEVATED SURFACES. TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE
HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WARM GROUND TEMPS. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE.  -CBL


FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT: SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONCERN OURSELVES WITH...
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FROZEN PRECIP IN THE WRN
PIEDMONT... BRISK WINDS... AND A POSSIBLE KILLING FREEZE THIS
WEEKEND.

OVERVIEW: HIGHLY ANOMALOUS (HEIGHTS DROPPING TO AROUND 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL) MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA LATE
FRI IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST... TO NEAR
AVL BY SAT MORNING... CROSSING SC SAT BEFORE SWINGING NE OFF THE NC
COAST SAT NIGHT. THE GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE OVER SC (NEARLY
180 M IN 12 HRS) BUT STILL IMPRESSIVE AT 100-150 M OVER CENTRAL/SRN
NC. AT THE SURFACE... WEAKER PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NC
COAST FRI NIGHT WILL MOVE NE AS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NC... TRACKING EAST WHILE DEEPENING OVER THE SRN NC
COAST THROUGH SAT MORNING... THEN STRENGTHENING JUST OFF THE OUTER
BANKS THROUGH LATE SAT.

POPS: GIVEN THE INTENSE DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT... PEAK IN MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION... AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT... AN UPTICK IN POPS TO CATEGORICAL EXTENDING THROUGH MUCH
OF SAT APPEARS WARRANTED. THE HIGHER POPS SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS... OR THE WRN AND SRN CWA...
WHERE DPVA WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND WHERE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE DIVING JET TO OUR WEST WILL BE STRENGTHENING...
ALL YIELDING DEEP AND VIGOROUS DYNAMIC LIFT. WILL BE SLOWER TO TAPER
DOWN POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND ERN CWA GIVEN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES
AND GREATER DEFORMATION HERE... PLUS ADDITIONAL WEAKER SHEARED
VORTICITY WILL BE DIVING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW.

PTYPE AND THUNDER: WHILE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER (MORE
REASONABLY SO) WITH THE SKIN AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS... LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT THE FREEZING LEVEL IN THE TRIAD FALLING
BELOW 1000 FT SAT MORNING... AS THE STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW
INTENSIFIES LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO OUR FAR NRN AND WRN
CWA. AN EXPECTED SATURATED NEAR-FREEZING ISOTHERMAL LAYER UP TO
AROUND 850 MB IS TOPPED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0 C/KM AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP THROUGH -25C... WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORTS SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN OVER THE
WRN PIEDMONT LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE
HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WARM GROUND TEMPS... HOWEVER A LIGHT
DUSTING ON ELEVATED SURFACES IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING HOW
INTENSE THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WITH WHAT SHOULD BE AN
INCREDIBLE AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW... OTHERWISE ATYPICAL LATE-OCTOBER WEATHER
INCLUDING A POTENTIAL LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW ON ELEVATED SURFACE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. REGARDING THUNDER CHANCES... PREDICTED MUCAPE
WILL REMAIN LOW AND CONFINED LARGELY TO THE COASTAL AREAS... HOWEVER
THE NAM DOES INDICATE 100-200 J/KG OVER THE SW/SRN CWA FRI NIGHT...
AND WITH EXPECTED STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND STRONG ASCENT THROUGH
SAT MORNING COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR... A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR... BUT SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT ANY CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS THAT MAY DEVELOP AND ANY RESULTING HEAVIER PRECIP RATES
COULD RAISE THE RISK OF A DUSTING OF SNOW ON ELEVATED SURFACES.

WINDS: IT SHOULD TAKE AWHILE FOR THE SURFACE WINDS TO PICK UP SAT...
GIVEN THE INITIAL SLACK GRADIENT AS THE SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NC. AS THIS LOW SHIFTS EAST AND OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS
DURING THE DAY AND SAT NIGHT... THE RAPIDLY TIGHTENING GRADIENT
SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS PEAKING AT 15-20 KTS (POTENTIALLY
HIGHER IN SPOTS) IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. STILL EXPECT
GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS. THIS IS JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA... BUT
IMPACT-WISE WE SHOULD STILL SEE LIGHT OBJECTS GETTING TOSSED AROUND
AND A FEW BRANCHES COMING DOWN... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT MOST
LEAVES ARE STILL ON THE TREES. WIND CHILLS MAY HOLD IN THE 30S OVER
THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY.

TEMPS: PATTERN OF EARLIER FORECASTS TO UNDERCUT STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
SUBSTANTIALLY STILL APPEARS PRUDENT... WITH A CHILLY CANADIAN-SOURCE
AIR MASS MOVING IN... STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION... STEADY
PRECIP FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY... AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.
EXPECT HIGHS FROM 44 TO 53... ORIENTED ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST...
ALTHOUGH HIGHS IN THE ERN CWA WILL BE AROUND MIDDAY WITH TEMPS
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWS 32-37 WEST-TO-
EAST... AS THE OVERNIGHT MIXING SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT...
LEAVING THE BETTER CHANCE OF A KILLING FROST/FREEZE EVENT FOR SUN
NIGHT. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1205 PM THURSDAY...

FOR SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO OUR
EAST SUN... AND WHILE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY LINGER EARLY AS ONE LAST
SPEED MAX ALOFT CROSSES THE AREA... THE DEEP DRYING AND
WARMING/SINKING MID LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST EARLY SUN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN
CWA AS THE MSLP GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT... AS THE COASTAL LOW SLOWLY
PULLS NE AWAY FROM NC. THIS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD ENSURE THAT
TEMPS HOLD UP A BIT SUN MORNING... HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PASSES OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING... TEMPS ARE VERY LIKELY TO
DROP TO NEAR OR JUST UNDER FREEZING... COLDEST IN THE WEST. A DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ASSUMPTION WITH A SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MIXED LAYER
ON SUNDAY SUPPORTS HIGHS OF 52-57. LOWS SUN NIGHT 27-34... WITH THE
LOWER NUMBERS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER OUTLYING AREAS. ONE POTENTIAL
CAVEAT: A SLUG OF MOISTURE AROUND 700 MB (ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE
NORTHEAST-MOVING WARM FRONT ALOFT) AND AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE
PATTERN (INCLUDING INCREASING NW WINDS FROM THE INVERSION ALOFT UP
TO THE TROPOPAUSE) WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING... AND IF THIS OCCURS... IT MAY HOLD
TEMPS UP A BIT IN THE NW PIEDMONT. STAY TUNED. MID LEVEL RIDGING
THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST MON/MON NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MODIFIES ACCORDINGLY.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 MON. WITH A LIGHT WSW
SURFACE FLOW AND MILD THICKNESSES... HAVE LOWS MON NIGHT OF 33-36.

FOR TUE-THU: THE WARMING TREND WILL BE IN FULL SWING WITH
THICKNESSES TRENDING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL... AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND EXPANDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. BY MIDWEEK...
TROUGHING NOW WELL OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH WRN
NOAM... CULMINATING IN MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND
OVER NRN MEXICO AND TX. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW LATE WED INTO THU... AND WHILE IT MAY NOT ACTUALLY GET
INTO NC BY THU AS THE RIDGE LOOKS PRETTY POTENT... WE`RE LIKELY TO
SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AT THE VERY LEAST... AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS
AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS DRAWN IN. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TUE IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S... CLIMBING TO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR WED/THU. -GIH

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST

        LO-MAX

RDU     50/1925
GSO     45/1925
FAY     48/1988

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 810 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD... THOUGH SOME SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED 4-5KFT CLOUDINESS AT
KINT AND KGSO NEAR DAYBREAK/INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY...
ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME IFR/MVFR VISBYS AT FOG PRONE KRWI AGAIN
NEAR DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD HAS HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST.


OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FRIDAY EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LOW
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS WILL IMPACT THE AREA FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...BSD/CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 301913
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRI. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND ASSOCIATED STRONG CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN WET BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...

TONIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS SEWD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
DAYBREAK...WITHIN THE EVOLVING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
US AND IN ADVANCE OF A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OUT OF
EASTERN MANITOBA. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE STALLED OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE WILL ENSUE IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION. WHILE
PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...GFS TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE
CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME ENCOMPASSED BY MULTI-LAYER
CLOUDINESS...BOUNDED BY A BROKEN MID-CLOUD LAYER ON OUR WESTERN
FLANKS...WITH ENCROACHING LOW CLOUD DECK ON THE EASTERN FLANKS.
BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON OUR WESTERN AND
EASTERN FRINGES. LOW TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 40...WITH THE COOLER READINGS IN RURAL/OUTLYING AREAS WHERE WINDS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO GO CALM AT TIMES.

FRIDAY: DPVA FROM PASSAGE OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
WEAK LIFT WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES/ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY FRIDAY/EARLY FRIDAY EVENING IN
PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS PUSHING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS A GOOD CATEGORY
COOLER...POSSIBLY 2 CATEGORIES COOLER IN THE TRIAD. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S NW PIEDMONT TO MID 60S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT: POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN
OHIO/TN VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING WILL CLOSE OFF AND WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND INVOF THE UPSTATE SC/SOUTHWEST NC BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. INTENSE SFC CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE NC/SC COAST
WILL ENSUE BETWEEN 00 TO 12Z SATURDAY...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A
STRONG POLAR FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.  CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY FRIDAY EVENING-FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP F-
GEN RESPONSE IN A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION BAND PROGGED TO SET UP
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...THOUGH THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND LOCATION.

WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST
OF THE LITTLE TRICK TREATERS DRY...ALTHOUGH RESIDENTS IN THE TRIAD
MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN IF THEY STAY OUT MUCH
AFTER 9PM. BY DAYBREAK...EXPECT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
MORNING. COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ATOP STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL
SUPPORT A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
UNDERNEATH THE STEEP MID-LEVEL RATES WITHIN THE DEFORMATION BAND
COULD SUPPORT A DUSTING ON ELEVATED SURFACES. TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE
HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WARM GROUND TEMPS. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE.  -CBL


FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT: SEVERAL ISSUES TO CONCERN OURSELVES WITH...
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FROZEN PRECIP IN THE WRN
PIEDMONT... BRISK WINDS... AND A POSSIBLE KILLING FREEZE THIS
WEEKEND.

OVERVIEW: HIGHLY ANOMALOUS (HEIGHTS DROPPING TO AROUND 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL) MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA LATE
FRI IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST... TO NEAR
AVL BY SAT MORNING... CROSSING SC SAT BEFORE SWINGING NE OFF THE NC
COAST SAT NIGHT. THE GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE OVER SC (NEARLY
180 M IN 12 HRS) BUT STILL IMPRESSIVE AT 100-150 M OVER CENTRAL/SRN
NC. AT THE SURFACE... WEAKER PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NC
COAST FRI NIGHT WILL MOVE NE AS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NC... TRACKING EAST WHILE DEEPENING OVER THE SRN NC
COAST THROUGH SAT MORNING... THEN STRENGTHENING JUST OFF THE OUTER
BANKS THROUGH LATE SAT.

POPS: GIVEN THE INTENSE DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT... PEAK IN MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION... AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT... AN UPTICK IN POPS TO CATEGORICAL EXTENDING THROUGH MUCH
OF SAT APPEARS WARRANTED. THE HIGHER POPS SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS... OR THE WRN AND SRN CWA...
WHERE DPVA WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND WHERE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE DIVING JET TO OUR WEST WILL BE STRENGTHENING...
ALL YIELDING DEEP AND VIGOROUS DYNAMIC LIFT. WILL BE SLOWER TO TAPER
DOWN POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND ERN CWA GIVEN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES
AND GREATER DEFORMATION HERE... PLUS ADDITIONAL WEAKER SHEARED
VORTICITY WILL BE DIVING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW.

PTYPE AND THUNDER: WHILE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER (MORE
REASONABLY SO) WITH THE SKIN AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS... LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT THE FREEZING LEVEL IN THE TRIAD FALLING
BELOW 1000 FT SAT MORNING... AS THE STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW
INTENSIFIES LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO OUR FAR NRN AND WRN
CWA. AN EXPECTED SATURATED NEAR-FREEZING ISOTHERMAL LAYER UP TO
AROUND 850 MB IS TOPPED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0 C/KM AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP THROUGH -25C... WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORTS SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN OVER THE
WRN PIEDMONT LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE
HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE WARM GROUND TEMPS... HOWEVER A LIGHT
DUSTING ON ELEVATED SURFACES IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. CONSIDERING HOW
INTENSE THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WITH WHAT SHOULD BE AN
INCREDIBLE AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW... OTHERWISE ATYPICAL LATE-OCTOBER WEATHER
INCLUDING A POTENTIAL LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW ON ELEVATED SURFACE
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. REGARDING THUNDER CHANCES... PREDICTED MUCAPE
WILL REMAIN LOW AND CONFINED LARGELY TO THE COASTAL AREAS... HOWEVER
THE NAM DOES INDICATE 100-200 J/KG OVER THE SW/SRN CWA FRI NIGHT...
AND WITH EXPECTED STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND STRONG ASCENT THROUGH
SAT MORNING COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR... A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR... BUT SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IT`S WORTH NOTING THAT ANY CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS THAT MAY DEVELOP AND ANY RESULTING HEAVIER PRECIP RATES
COULD RAISE THE RISK OF A DUSTING OF SNOW ON ELEVATED SURFACES.

WINDS: IT SHOULD TAKE AWHILE FOR THE SURFACE WINDS TO PICK UP SAT...
GIVEN THE INITIAL SLACK GRADIENT AS THE SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NC. AS THIS LOW SHIFTS EAST AND OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS
DURING THE DAY AND SAT NIGHT... THE RAPIDLY TIGHTENING GRADIENT
SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS PEAKING AT 15-20 KTS (POTENTIALLY
HIGHER IN SPOTS) IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. STILL EXPECT
GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS. THIS IS JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA... BUT
IMPACT-WISE WE SHOULD STILL SEE LIGHT OBJECTS GETTING TOSSED AROUND
AND A FEW BRANCHES COMING DOWN... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT MOST
LEAVES ARE STILL ON THE TREES. WIND CHILLS MAY HOLD IN THE 30S OVER
THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY.

TEMPS: PATTERN OF EARLIER FORECASTS TO UNDERCUT STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
SUBSTANTIALLY STILL APPEARS PRUDENT... WITH A CHILLY CANADIAN-SOURCE
AIR MASS MOVING IN... STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION... STEADY
PRECIP FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY... AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.
EXPECT HIGHS FROM 44 TO 53... ORIENTED ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST...
ALTHOUGH HIGHS IN THE ERN CWA WILL BE AROUND MIDDAY WITH TEMPS
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWS 32-37 WEST-TO-
EAST... AS THE OVERNIGHT MIXING SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT...
LEAVING THE BETTER CHANCE OF A KILLING FROST/FREEZE EVENT FOR SUN
NIGHT. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1205 PM THURSDAY...

FOR SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO OUR
EAST SUN... AND WHILE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY LINGER EARLY AS ONE LAST
SPEED MAX ALOFT CROSSES THE AREA... THE DEEP DRYING AND
WARMING/SINKING MID LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST EARLY SUN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN
CWA AS THE MSLP GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT... AS THE COASTAL LOW SLOWLY
PULLS NE AWAY FROM NC. THIS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD ENSURE THAT
TEMPS HOLD UP A BIT SUN MORNING... HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PASSES OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING... TEMPS ARE VERY LIKELY TO
DROP TO NEAR OR JUST UNDER FREEZING... COLDEST IN THE WEST. A DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ASSUMPTION WITH A SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MIXED LAYER
ON SUNDAY SUPPORTS HIGHS OF 52-57. LOWS SUN NIGHT 27-34... WITH THE
LOWER NUMBERS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER OUTLYING AREAS. ONE POTENTIAL
CAVEAT: A SLUG OF MOISTURE AROUND 700 MB (ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE
NORTHEAST-MOVING WARM FRONT ALOFT) AND AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE
PATTERN (INCLUDING INCREASING NW WINDS FROM THE INVERSION ALOFT UP
TO THE TROPOPAUSE) WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING... AND IF THIS OCCURS... IT MAY HOLD
TEMPS UP A BIT IN THE NW PIEDMONT. STAY TUNED. MID LEVEL RIDGING
THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST MON/MON NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MODIFIES ACCORDINGLY.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 MON. WITH A LIGHT WSW
SURFACE FLOW AND MILD THICKNESSES... HAVE LOWS MON NIGHT OF 33-36.

FOR TUE-THU: THE WARMING TREND WILL BE IN FULL SWING WITH
THICKNESSES TRENDING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL... AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND EXPANDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. BY MIDWEEK...
TROUGHING NOW WELL OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH WRN
NOAM... CULMINATING IN MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND
OVER NRN MEXICO AND TX. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW LATE WED INTO THU... AND WHILE IT MAY NOT ACTUALLY GET
INTO NC BY THU AS THE RIDGE LOOKS PRETTY POTENT... WE`RE LIKELY TO
SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AT THE VERY LEAST... AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS
AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS DRAWN IN. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TUE IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S... CLIMBING TO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR WED/THU. -GIH

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST

        LO-MAX

RDU     50/1925
GSO     45/1925
FAY     48/1988

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME
SHALLOW ISENTROPIC ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED 3-4KFT CLOUDINESS AT KINT AND KGSO OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTH...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FRIDAY EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LOW
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS WILL IMPACT THE AREA FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 301740
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRI. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND ASSOCIATED STRONG CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN WET BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1012 AM THURSDAY...

TODAY: LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST WHILE WEAK
1022 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS EAST INTO THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. RESULTANT MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR
A MORE AUTUMN-LIKE TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
65-70...A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS SEWD AMD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
DAYBREAK...WITHIN THE EVOLVING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
US AND IN ADVANCE OF A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OUT OF
EASTERN MANITOBA. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE STALLED OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE WILL ENSUE IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION. WHILE
PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...GFS TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE
CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME ENCOMPASSED BY MULTI-LAYER
CLOUDINESS...BOUNDED BY A BROKEN MID-CLOUD LAYER ON OUR WESTERN
FLANKS...WITH ENCROACHING LOW CLOUD DECK ON THE EASTERN FLANKS.
BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON OUR WESTERN AND
EASTERN FRINGES. LOW TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 40...WITH THE COOLER READINGS IN RURAL/OUTLYING AREAS WHERE WINDS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO GO CALM AT TIMES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM THURSDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN PHASED STREAMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SHARPLY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES FRI AND INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT. AN
ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL MIGRATE EAST FROM THE MID-SOUTH
TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FRI...THEN EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRI
NIGHT. A STRONG POLAR FRONT TRAILING THE SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING...THEN EDGE
MORE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE RAH CWFA BETWEEN 06-12Z SAT.
AFTER INCREASING CLOUDS AND HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 60S ON FRI...INTENSE
LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND H5 HEIGHT FALLS OF 150-180 M/12 HR
CENTERED OVER SC BY 12Z SAT...WILL SUPPORT THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S OVER THE NW PIEDMONT TO LOW-MID 40S OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. TAKEN LITERALLY...BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...AND
TO A LESSER DEGREE FROM THE NAM...WOULD SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND
WET SNOW AROUND DAYBREAK OVER THE FAR NW PIEDMONT. PREFER TO HOLD
OFF ON THE MENTION OF ANY SUCH OCCURRENCE IN THE NDFD...HOWEVER...
GIVEN THE STILL ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS UPCOMING HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS PATTERN.

STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE IN TO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY... WITH CLOSED
H5 LOW. MODELS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN
WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. SURFACE LOW LOOKS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON... AND WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL... THOUGH THE DISTRIBUTION
REMAINS TRICKY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT... AND
POTENTIALLY WARM ADVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE COASTAL LOW...
DETERMINING THE SEPARATION BETWEEN POSSIBLY LOWER 50S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN... TO LOW TO MID 40S IN THE TRIAD. GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND
STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1205 PM THURSDAY...

FOR SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO OUR
EAST SUN... AND WHILE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY LINGER EARLY AS ONE LAST
SPEED MAX ALOFT CROSSES THE AREA... THE DEEP DRYING AND
WARMING/SINKING MID LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST EARLY SUN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN
CWA AS THE MSLP GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT... AS THE COASTAL LOW SLOWLY
PULLS NE AWAY FROM NC. THIS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD ENSURE THAT
TEMPS HOLD UP A BIT SUN MORNING... HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PASSES OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING... TEMPS ARE VERY LIKELY TO
DROP TO NEAR OR JUST UNDER FREEZING... COLDEST IN THE WEST. A DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ASSUMPTION WITH A SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MIXED LAYER
ON SUNDAY SUPPORTS HIGHS OF 52-57. LOWS SUN NIGHT 27-34... WITH THE
LOWER NUMBERS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER OUTLYING AREAS. ONE POTENTIAL
CAVEAT: A SLUG OF MOISTURE AROUND 700 MB (ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE
NORTHEAST-MOVING WARM FRONT ALOFT) AND AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE
PATTERN (INCLUDING INCREASING NW WINDS FROM THE INVERSION ALOFT UP
TO THE TROPOPAUSE) WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING... AND IF THIS OCCURS... IT MAY HOLD
TEMPS UP A BIT IN THE NW PIEDMONT. STAY TUNED. MID LEVEL RIDGING
THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST MON/MON NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MODIFIES ACCORDINGLY.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 MON. WITH A LIGHT WSW
SURFACE FLOW AND MILD THICKNESSES... HAVE LOWS MON NIGHT OF 33-36.

FOR TUE-THU: THE WARMING TREND WILL BE IN FULL SWING WITH
THICKNESSES TRENDING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL... AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND EXPANDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. BY MIDWEEK...
TROUGHING NOW WELL OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH WRN
NOAM... CULMINATING IN MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND
OVER NRN MEXICO AND TX. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW LATE WED INTO THU... AND WHILE IT MAY NOT ACTUALLY GET
INTO NC BY THU AS THE RIDGE LOOKS PRETTY POTENT... WE`RE LIKELY TO
SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AT THE VERY LEAST... AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS
AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS DRAWN IN. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TUE IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S... CLIMBING TO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR WED/THU. -GIH

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST

        LO-MAX

RDU     50/1925
GSO     45/1925
FAY     48/1988

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME
SHALLOW ISENTROPIC ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED 3-4KFT CLOUDINESS AT KINT AND KGSO OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTH...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FRIDAY EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LOW
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS WILL IMPACT THE AREA FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...MWS/SEC
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 301740
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRI. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND ASSOCIATED STRONG CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN WET BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1012 AM THURSDAY...

TODAY: LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST WHILE WEAK
1022 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS EAST INTO THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. RESULTANT MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR
A MORE AUTUMN-LIKE TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
65-70...A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS SEWD AMD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
DAYBREAK...WITHIN THE EVOLVING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
US AND IN ADVANCE OF A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OUT OF
EASTERN MANITOBA. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE STALLED OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE WILL ENSUE IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION. WHILE
PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...GFS TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE
CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME ENCOMPASSED BY MULTI-LAYER
CLOUDINESS...BOUNDED BY A BROKEN MID-CLOUD LAYER ON OUR WESTERN
FLANKS...WITH ENCROACHING LOW CLOUD DECK ON THE EASTERN FLANKS.
BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON OUR WESTERN AND
EASTERN FRINGES. LOW TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 40...WITH THE COOLER READINGS IN RURAL/OUTLYING AREAS WHERE WINDS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO GO CALM AT TIMES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM THURSDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN PHASED STREAMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SHARPLY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES FRI AND INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT. AN
ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL MIGRATE EAST FROM THE MID-SOUTH
TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FRI...THEN EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRI
NIGHT. A STRONG POLAR FRONT TRAILING THE SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING...THEN EDGE
MORE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE RAH CWFA BETWEEN 06-12Z SAT.
AFTER INCREASING CLOUDS AND HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 60S ON FRI...INTENSE
LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND H5 HEIGHT FALLS OF 150-180 M/12 HR
CENTERED OVER SC BY 12Z SAT...WILL SUPPORT THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S OVER THE NW PIEDMONT TO LOW-MID 40S OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. TAKEN LITERALLY...BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...AND
TO A LESSER DEGREE FROM THE NAM...WOULD SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND
WET SNOW AROUND DAYBREAK OVER THE FAR NW PIEDMONT. PREFER TO HOLD
OFF ON THE MENTION OF ANY SUCH OCCURRENCE IN THE NDFD...HOWEVER...
GIVEN THE STILL ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS UPCOMING HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS PATTERN.

STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE IN TO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY... WITH CLOSED
H5 LOW. MODELS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN
WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. SURFACE LOW LOOKS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON... AND WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL... THOUGH THE DISTRIBUTION
REMAINS TRICKY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT... AND
POTENTIALLY WARM ADVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE COASTAL LOW...
DETERMINING THE SEPARATION BETWEEN POSSIBLY LOWER 50S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN... TO LOW TO MID 40S IN THE TRIAD. GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND
STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1205 PM THURSDAY...

FOR SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO OUR
EAST SUN... AND WHILE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY LINGER EARLY AS ONE LAST
SPEED MAX ALOFT CROSSES THE AREA... THE DEEP DRYING AND
WARMING/SINKING MID LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST EARLY SUN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN
CWA AS THE MSLP GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT... AS THE COASTAL LOW SLOWLY
PULLS NE AWAY FROM NC. THIS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD ENSURE THAT
TEMPS HOLD UP A BIT SUN MORNING... HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PASSES OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING... TEMPS ARE VERY LIKELY TO
DROP TO NEAR OR JUST UNDER FREEZING... COLDEST IN THE WEST. A DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ASSUMPTION WITH A SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MIXED LAYER
ON SUNDAY SUPPORTS HIGHS OF 52-57. LOWS SUN NIGHT 27-34... WITH THE
LOWER NUMBERS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER OUTLYING AREAS. ONE POTENTIAL
CAVEAT: A SLUG OF MOISTURE AROUND 700 MB (ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE
NORTHEAST-MOVING WARM FRONT ALOFT) AND AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE
PATTERN (INCLUDING INCREASING NW WINDS FROM THE INVERSION ALOFT UP
TO THE TROPOPAUSE) WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING... AND IF THIS OCCURS... IT MAY HOLD
TEMPS UP A BIT IN THE NW PIEDMONT. STAY TUNED. MID LEVEL RIDGING
THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST MON/MON NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MODIFIES ACCORDINGLY.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 MON. WITH A LIGHT WSW
SURFACE FLOW AND MILD THICKNESSES... HAVE LOWS MON NIGHT OF 33-36.

FOR TUE-THU: THE WARMING TREND WILL BE IN FULL SWING WITH
THICKNESSES TRENDING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL... AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND EXPANDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. BY MIDWEEK...
TROUGHING NOW WELL OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH WRN
NOAM... CULMINATING IN MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND
OVER NRN MEXICO AND TX. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW LATE WED INTO THU... AND WHILE IT MAY NOT ACTUALLY GET
INTO NC BY THU AS THE RIDGE LOOKS PRETTY POTENT... WE`RE LIKELY TO
SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AT THE VERY LEAST... AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS
AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS DRAWN IN. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TUE IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S... CLIMBING TO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR WED/THU. -GIH

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST

        LO-MAX

RDU     50/1925
GSO     45/1925
FAY     48/1988

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME
SHALLOW ISENTROPIC ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED 3-4KFT CLOUDINESS AT KINT AND KGSO OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND FROM THE NORTH...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE FRIDAY EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LOW
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS WILL IMPACT THE AREA FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...MWS/SEC
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 301602
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1205 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRI. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND ASSOCIATED STRONG CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN WET BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1012 AM THURSDAY...

TODAY: LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST WHILE WEAK
1022 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS EAST INTO THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. RESULTANT MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR
A MORE AUTUMN-LIKE TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
65-70...A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS SEWD AMD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
DAYBREAK...WITHIN THE EVOLVING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
US AND IN ADVANCE OF A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OUT OF
EASTERN MANITOBA. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE STALLED OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE WILL ENSUE IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION. WHILE
PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...GFS TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE
CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME ENCOMPASSED BY MULTI-LAYER
CLOUDINESS...BOUNDED BY A BROKEN MID-CLOUD LAYER ON OUR WESTERN
FLANKS...WITH ENCROACHING LOW CLOUD DECK ON THE EASTERN FLANKS.
BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON OUR WESTERN AND
EASTERN FRINGES. LOW TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 40...WITH THE COOLER READINGS IN RURAL/OUTLYING AREAS WHERE WINDS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO GO CALM AT TIMES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM THURSDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN PHASED STREAMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SHARPLY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES FRI AND INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT. AN
ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL MIGRATE EAST FROM THE MID-SOUTH
TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FRI...THEN EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRI
NIGHT. A STRONG POLAR FRONT TRAILING THE SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING...THEN EDGE
MORE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE RAH CWFA BETWEEN 06-12Z SAT.
AFTER INCREASING CLOUDS AND HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 60S ON FRI...INTENSE
LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND H5 HEIGHT FALLS OF 150-180 M/12 HR
CENTERED OVER SC BY 12Z SAT...WILL SUPPORT THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S OVER THE NW PIEDMONT TO LOW-MID 40S OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. TAKEN LITERALLY...BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...AND
TO A LESSER DEGREE FROM THE NAM...WOULD SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND
WET SNOW AROUND DAYBREAK OVER THE FAR NW PIEDMONT. PREFER TO HOLD
OFF ON THE MENTION OF ANY SUCH OCCURRENCE IN THE NDFD...HOWEVER...
GIVEN THE STILL ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS UPCOMING HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS PATTERN.

STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE IN TO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY... WITH CLOSED
H5 LOW. MODELS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN
WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. SURFACE LOW LOOKS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON... AND WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL... THOUGH THE DISTRIBUTION
REMAINS TRICKY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT... AND
POTENTIALLY WARM ADVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE COASTAL LOW...
DETERMINING THE SEPARATION BETWEEN POSSIBLY LOWER 50S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN... TO LOW TO MID 40S IN THE TRIAD. GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND
STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1205 PM THURSDAY...

FOR SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO OUR
EAST SUN... AND WHILE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY LINGER EARLY AS ONE LAST
SPEED MAX ALOFT CROSSES THE AREA... THE DEEP DRYING AND
WARMING/SINKING MID LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST EARLY SUN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN
CWA AS THE MSLP GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT... AS THE COASTAL LOW SLOWLY
PULLS NE AWAY FROM NC. THIS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD ENSURE THAT
TEMPS HOLD UP A BIT SUN MORNING... HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PASSES OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING... TEMPS ARE VERY LIKELY TO
DROP TO NEAR OR JUST UNDER FREEZING... COLDEST IN THE WEST. A DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ASSUMPTION WITH A SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MIXED LAYER
ON SUNDAY SUPPORTS HIGHS OF 52-57. LOWS SUN NIGHT 27-34... WITH THE
LOWER NUMBERS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER OUTLYING AREAS. ONE POTENTIAL
CAVEAT: A SLUG OF MOISTURE AROUND 700 MB (ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFUSE
NORTHEAST-MOVING WARM FRONT ALOFT) AND AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE
PATTERN (INCLUDING INCREASING NW WINDS FROM THE INVERSION ALOFT UP
TO THE TROPOPAUSE) WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING... AND IF THIS OCCURS... IT MAY HOLD
TEMPS UP A BIT IN THE NW PIEDMONT. STAY TUNED. MID LEVEL RIDGING
THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST MON/MON NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE RESIDENT AIR MASS MODIFIES ACCORDINGLY.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 MON. WITH A LIGHT WSW
SURFACE FLOW AND MILD THICKNESSES... HAVE LOWS MON NIGHT OF 33-36.

FOR TUE-THU: THE WARMING TREND WILL BE IN FULL SWING WITH
THICKNESSES TRENDING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL... AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AND EXPANDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. BY MIDWEEK...
TROUGHING NOW WELL OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH WRN
NOAM... CULMINATING IN MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND
OVER NRN MEXICO AND TX. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW LATE WED INTO THU... AND WHILE IT MAY NOT ACTUALLY GET
INTO NC BY THU AS THE RIDGE LOOKS PRETTY POTENT... WE`RE LIKELY TO
SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AT THE VERY LEAST... AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS
AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS DRAWN IN. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TUE IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S... CLIMBING TO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR WED/THU. -GIH

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST

        LO-MAX

RDU     50/1925
GSO     45/1925
FAY     48/1988

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM THURSDAY...

ASIDE FROM A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND
CEILINGS AT KRWI THROUGH 13-14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. CONTINUED CLEARING OF MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MIDDAY AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS EAST BEHIND
A TROUGH ALOFT NEARING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE FROM THE NORTH...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN RAIN; SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS; AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...MWS/SEC
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 301414
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1012 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRI. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND ASSOCIATED STRONG CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN WET BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1012 AM THURSDAY...

TODAY: LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST WHILE WEAK
1022 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS EAST INTO THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. RESULTANT MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR
A MORE AUTUMN-LIKE TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
65-70...A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT: SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS SEWD AMD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
DAYBREAK...WITHIN THE EVOLVING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
US AND IN ADVANCE OF A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OUT OF
EASTERN MANITOBA. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE STALLED OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE WILL ENSUE IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION. WHILE
PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...GFS TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE
CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME ENCOMPASSED BY MULTI-LAYER
CLOUDINESS...BOUNDED BY A BROKEN MID-CLOUD LAYER ON OUR WESTERN
FLANKS...WITH ENCROACHING LOW CLOUD DECK ON THE EASTERN FLANKS.
BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON OUR WESTERN AND
EASTERN FRINGES. LOW TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 40...WITH THE COOLER READINGS IN RURAL/OUTLYING AREAS WHERE WINDS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO GO CALM AT TIMES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM THURSDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN PHASED STREAMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SHARPLY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES FRI AND INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT. AN
ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL MIGRATE EAST FROM THE MID-SOUTH
TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FRI...THEN EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRI
NIGHT. A STRONG POLAR FRONT TRAILING THE SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING...THEN EDGE
MORE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE RAH CWFA BETWEEN 06-12Z SAT.
AFTER INCREASING CLOUDS AND HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 60S ON FRI...INTENSE
LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND H5 HEIGHT FALLS OF 150-180 M/12 HR
CENTERED OVER SC BY 12Z SAT...WILL SUPPORT THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S OVER THE NW PIEDMONT TO LOW-MID 40S OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. TAKEN LITERALLY...BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...AND
TO A LESSER DEGREE FROM THE NAM...WOULD SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND
WET SNOW AROUND DAYBREAK OVER THE FAR NW PIEDMONT. PREFER TO HOLD
OFF ON THE MENTION OF ANY SUCH OCCURRENCE IN THE NDFD...HOWEVER...
GIVEN THE STILL ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS UPCOMING HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM THURSDAY...

STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE IN TO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY... WITH CLOSED
H5 LOW. MODELS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN
WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. SURFACE LOW LOOKS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON... AND WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL... THOUGH THE DISTRIBUTION
REMAINS TRICKY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT... AND
POTENTIALLY WARM ADVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE COASTAL LOW...
DETERMINING THE SEPARATION BETWEEN POSSIBLY LOWER 50S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN... TO LOW TO MID 40S IN THE TRIAD. GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND
STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES BY SUNDAY... AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SETTLE OVER OUR AREA
EARLY MONDAY... BRINGING A LIKELY FROST/FREEZE TO THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE... AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST

        LO-MAX

RDU     50/1925
GSO     45/1925
FAY     48/1988

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM THURSDAY...

ASIDE FROM A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND
CEILINGS AT KRWI THROUGH 13-14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. CONTINUED CLEARING OF MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MIDDAY AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS EAST BEHIND
A TROUGH ALOFT NEARING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE FROM THE NORTH...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN RAIN; SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS; AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...SEC
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 301145
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
745 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRI. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
POLAR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE
NC COAST ON SAT..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED AT 07Z ALONG THE NC COAST WEST
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL SC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE A 1022 MB SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST TO EXPAND EAST AND MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTH TO
NNE WIND...AND COOLER CONDITIONS...OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY. WHILE
CLEARING WILL STEADILY OCCUR FROM THE WEST...SOME 4-8 THOUSAND FT
CLOUDINESS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE APT TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY-
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

TONIGHT: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING
WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY FRI
MORNING...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER ONE IN A PHASED NORTHERN BRANCH
POLAR AND ARCTIC STREAM AMPLIFIES SHARPLY SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE SAME TIME.
DESPITE THE ASSOCIATED STEADILY FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...BUFR FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE AND SUGGEST JUST PATCHES OF
STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING LATE...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
40...WITH THE COOLER READINGS LIKELY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PIEDMONT
WHERE WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO GO CALM AT TIMES...VERSUS A CONTINUED
LIGHT NORTHERLY STIRRING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM THURSDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN PHASED STREAMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SHARPLY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES FRI AND INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT. AN
ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL MIGRATE EAST FROM THE MID-SOUTH
TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FRI...THEN EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRI
NIGHT. A STRONG POLAR FRONT TRAILING THE SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING...THEN EDGE
MORE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE RAH CWFA BETWEEN 06-12Z SAT.
AFTER INCREASING CLOUDS AND HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 60S ON FRI...INTENSE
LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND H5 HEIGHT FALLS OF 150-180 M/12 HR
CENTERED OVER SC BY 12Z SAT...WILL SUPPORT THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S OVER THE NW PIEDMONT TO LOW-MID 40S OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. TAKEN LITERALLY...BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...AND
TO A LESSER DEGREE FROM THE NAM...WOULD SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND
WET SNOW AROUND DAYBREAK OVER THE FAR NW PIEDMONT. PREFER TO HOLD
OFF ON THE MENTION OF ANY SUCH OCCURRENCE IN THE NDFD...HOWEVER...
GIVEN THE STILL ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS UPCOMING HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM THURSDAY...

STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE IN TO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY... WITH CLOSED
H5 LOW. MODELS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN
WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. SURFACE LOW LOOKS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON... AND WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL... THOUGH THE DISTRIBUTION
REMAINS TRICKY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT... AND
POTENTIALLY WARM ADVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE COASTAL LOW...
DETERMINING THE SEPARATION BETWEEN POSSIBLY LOWER 50S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN... TO LOW TO MID 40S IN THE TRIAD. GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND
STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES BY SUNDAY... AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SETTLE OVER OUR AREA
EARLY MONDAY... BRINGING A LIKELY FROST/FREEZE TO THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE... AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST

        LO-MAX

RDU     50/1925
GSO     45/1925
FAY     48/1988

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM THURSDAY...

ASIDE FROM A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND
CEILINGS AT KRWI THROUGH 13-14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. CONTINUED CLEARING OF MAINLY VFR
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MIDDAY AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS EAST BEHIND
A TROUGH ALOFT NEARING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE FROM THE NORTH...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN RAIN; SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS; AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...SEC
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 300742
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
341 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRI. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
POLAR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE
NC COAST ON SAT..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED AT 07Z ALONG THE NC COAST WEST
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL SC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE A 1022 MB SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST TO EXPAND EAST AND MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTH TO
NNE WIND...AND COOLER CONDITIONS...OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY. WHILE
CLEARING WILL STEADILY OCCUR FROM THE WEST...SOME 4-8 THOUSAND FT
CLOUDINESS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE APT TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY-
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

TONIGHT: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING
WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY FRI
MORNING...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER ONE IN A PHASED NORTHERN BRANCH
POLAR AND ARCTIC STREAM AMPLIFIES SHARPLY SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE SAME TIME.
DESPITE THE ASSOCIATED STEADILY FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...BUFR FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE AND SUGGEST JUST PATCHES OF
STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING LATE...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
40...WITH THE COOLER READINGS LIKELY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PIEDMONT
WHERE WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO GO CALM AT TIMES...VERSUS A CONTINUED
LIGHT NORTHERLY STIRRING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM THURSDAY...

THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN PHASED STREAMS WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SHARPLY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES FRI AND INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FRI NIGHT. AN
ACCOMPANYING WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL MIGRATE EAST FROM THE MID-SOUTH
TO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FRI...THEN EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRI
NIGHT. A STRONG POLAR FRONT TRAILING THE SURFACE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING...THEN EDGE
MORE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE RAH CWFA BETWEEN 06-12Z SAT.
AFTER INCREASING CLOUDS AND HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 60S ON FRI...INTENSE
LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND H5 HEIGHT FALLS OF 150-180 M/12 HR
CENTERED OVER SC BY 12Z SAT...WILL SUPPORT THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S OVER THE NW PIEDMONT TO LOW-MID 40S OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN. TAKEN LITERALLY...BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...AND
TO A LESSER DEGREE FROM THE NAM...WOULD SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND
WET SNOW AROUND DAYBREAK OVER THE FAR NW PIEDMONT. PREFER TO HOLD
OFF ON THE MENTION OF ANY SUCH OCCURRENCE IN THE NDFD...HOWEVER...
GIVEN THE STILL ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS UPCOMING HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM THURSDAY...

STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE IN TO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY... WITH CLOSED
H5 LOW. MODELS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN
WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. SURFACE LOW LOOKS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON... AND WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL... THOUGH THE DISTRIBUTION
REMAINS TRICKY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT... AND
POTENTIALLY WARM ADVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE COASTAL LOW...
DETERMINING THE SEPARATION BETWEEN POSSIBLY LOWER 50S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN... TO LOW TO MID 40S IN THE TRIAD. GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND
STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES BY SUNDAY... AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SETTLE OVER OUR AREA
EARLY MONDAY... BRINGING A LIKELY FROST/FREEZE TO THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE... AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST

        LO-MAX

RDU     50/1925
GSO     45/1925
FAY     48/1988

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM THURSDAY...

VFR CEILINGS MAINLY BETWEEN 4-9 THOUSAND FT WILL ONLY SLOWLY CLEAR
OUT FROM THE WEST...AS THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH ALOFT DRAWS MOIST
AIR UP AND OVER A SURFACE FRONT OVER EASTERN NC. IN ADDITION...A
SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE PROBABLE OVER EAST-CENTRAL NC -
INCLUDING AT KRWI - IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE FRONT AND
LOWER CLOUD BASES...THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 4-8 KT RANGE FROM THE NORTH...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN RAIN; SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS; AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...SEC
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 300728
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
327 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRI. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
POLAR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE
NC COAST ON SAT..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED AT 07Z ALONG THE NC COAST WEST
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL SC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE A 1022 MB SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST TO EXPAND EAST AND MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTH TO
NNE WIND...AND COOLER CONDITIONS...OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY. WHILE
CLEARING WILL STEADILY OCCUR FROM THE WEST...SOME 4-8 THOUSAND FT
CLOUDINESS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE APT TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY-
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

TONIGHT: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING
WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY FRI
MORNING...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER ONE IN A PHASED NORTHERN BRANCH
POLAR AND ARCTIC STREAM AMPLIFIES SHARPLY SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE SAME TIME.
DESPITE THE ASSOCIATED STEADILY FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...BUFR FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE AND SUGGEST JUST PATCHES OF
STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING LATE...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
40...WITH THE COOLER READINGS LIKELY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PIEDMONT
WHERE WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO GO CALM AT TIMES...VERSUS A CONTINUED
LIGHT NORTHERLY STIRRING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT SEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITHIN THE EVOLVING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US
IMPELLED BY THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OUT OF EASTERN
MANITOBA.

DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND
VEERING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE TONIGHTS FROPA WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER. HIGHS 63 TO 68. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.

A MODERATE AMPLITUDE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AT 12Z FRIDAY DEEPENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AS AN INTENSE JET AT 500 HPA DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY
AND STRENGTHENS TO ~105KTS ON 00 UTC SUNDAY AS IT REACHES THE BASE
OF THE NOW CLOSED TROUGH OFF THE SC COAST. GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS/EC/NAM ARE ALL RATHER SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN PATTERN
WITH 500 HPA ANOMALIES OF 4-5 SD FROM NORMAL LATE SATURDAY WITH CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SIMILAR OUTCOME. AT THE SURFACE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL NC AROUND 00 UTC ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW IS UNCLEAR...CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD 12 UTC AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS AGGRESSIVELY.

LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE
FRIDAY EVENING...LIKELY AFTER MOST TRICK OR TREATING ACTIVITIES
END...AND THEN SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY AND RAW SATURDAY
SHOULD FEATURE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONSENSUS PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE PROVIDES AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH AN ARC OF HEAVIER RAIN LIKELY TO EXTEND NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK. WHILE THICKNESS VALUES
WILL CRASH EARLY SATURDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY WARM AND DEEP TO PRECLUDE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION...
EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM THURSDAY...

STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE IN TO OUR AREA ON SATURDAY... WITH CLOSED
H5 LOW. MODELS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN
WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. SURFACE LOW LOOKS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON... AND WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL... THOUGH THE DISTRIBUTION
REMAINS TRICKY WITH THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT... AND
POTENTIALLY WARM ADVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE COASTAL LOW...
DETERMINING THE SEPARATION BETWEEN POSSIBLY LOWER 50S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN... TO LOW TO MID 40S IN THE TRIAD. GUSTY WINDS ARE
LIKELY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND
STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE WILL BRING CLEARING
SKIES BY SUNDAY... AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OF CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SETTLE OVER OUR AREA
EARLY MONDAY... BRINGING A LIKELY FROST/FREEZE TO THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE... AND RETURN FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY... AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST

        LO-MAX

RDU     50/1925
GSO     45/1925
FAY     48/1988

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM THURSDAY...

VFR CEILINGS MAINLY BETWEEN 4-9 THOUSAND FT WILL ONLY SLOWLY CLEAR
OUT FROM THE WEST...AS THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH ALOFT DRAWS MOIST
AIR UP AND OVER A SURFACE FRONT OVER EASTERN NC. IN ADDITION...A
SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE PROBABLE OVER EAST-CENTRAL NC -
INCLUDING AT KRWI - IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE FRONT AND
LOWER CLOUD BASES...THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 4-8 KT RANGE FROM THE NORTH...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN RAIN; SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS; AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...CBL/BLAES
LONG TERM...SEC
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 300721
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
321 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRI. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
POLAR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE
NC COAST ON SAT..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED AT 07Z ALONG THE NC COAST WEST
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL SC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE A 1022 MB SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST TO EXPAND EAST AND MAINTAIN A LIGHT NORTH TO
NNE WIND...AND COOLER CONDITIONS...OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY. WHILE
CLEARING WILL STEADILY OCCUR FROM THE WEST...SOME 4-8 THOUSAND FT
CLOUDINESS/PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE APT TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY-
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

TONIGHT: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING
WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY FRI
MORNING...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER ONE IN A PHASED NORTHERN BRANCH
POLAR AND ARCTIC STREAM AMPLIFIES SHARPLY SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
NORTHERN MANITOBA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE SAME TIME.
DESPITE THE ASSOCIATED STEADILY FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...BUFR FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE AND SUGGEST JUST PATCHES OF
STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING LATE...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
40...WITH THE COOLER READINGS LIKELY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PIEDMONT
WHERE WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO GO CALM AT TIMES...VERSUS A CONTINUED
LIGHT NORTHERLY STIRRING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT SEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITHIN THE EVOLVING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US
IMPELLED BY THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OUT OF EASTERN
MANITOBA.

DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND
VEERING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE TONIGHTS FROPA WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER. HIGHS 63 TO 68. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

...ANOMALOUS PATTERN ON SATURDAY WILL BRING CHILLY, WINDY AND RAW
CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC...

A MODERATE AMPLITUDE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AT 12Z FRIDAY DEEPENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AS AN INTENSE JET AT 500 HPA DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY
AND STRENGTHENS TO ~105KTS ON 00 UTC SUNDAY AS IT REACHES THE BASE
OF THE NOW CLOSED TROUGH OFF THE SC COAST. GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS/EC/NAM ARE ALL RATHER SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN PATTERN
WITH 500 HPA ANOMALIES OF 4-5 SD FROM NORMAL LATE SATURDAY WITH CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SIMILAR OUTCOME. AT THE SURFACE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL NC AROUND 00 UTC ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW IS UNCLEAR...CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD 12 UTC AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS AGGRESSIVELY.

LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE
FRIDAY EVENING...LIKELY AFTER MOST TRICK OR TREATING ACTIVITIES
END...AND THEN SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY AND RAW SATURDAY
SHOULD FEATURE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONSENSUS PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE PROVIDES AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH AN ARC OF HEAVIER RAIN LIKELY TO EXTEND NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK. WHILE THICKNESS VALUES
WILL CRASH EARLY SATURDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY WARM AND DEEP TO PRECLUDE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION...
EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S. A STRENGTHENING GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A COLD
AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT 10-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR MORE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE COMPLICATED
BY PRECIPITATION AND COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW OFF
THE COAST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE TRIAD
TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. THESE VALUES ARE 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND COULD THREATEN RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY(SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD VALUES).

PRECIPITATION SHOULD WRAP UP EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES BY
SUNDAY MORNING RANGING IN THE 1305-1315M RANGE. DESPITE THE CLEARING
SKIES AND CHILLY THICKNESS VALUES...MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM BOTTOMING OUT COMPLETELY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING BETWEEN 50-55 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE PERIOD WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 30S AND PERHAPS
SOME UPPER 20S IN SPOTS.

FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
DEVELOPS. A SHEARING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS BUT GIVEN
THE LATE ARRIVAL ON DAY 7...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND
JUST INCREASE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ON
MONDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BY WEDNESDAY. -BLAES

&&
.CLIMATE...

RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST

        LO-MAX

RDU     50/1925
GSO     45/1925
FAY     48/1988

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM THURSDAY...

VFR CEILINGS MAINLY BETWEEN 4-9 THOUSAND FT WILL ONLY SLOWLY CLEAR
OUT FROM THE WEST...AS THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH ALOFT DRAWS MOIST
AIR UP AND OVER A SURFACE FRONT OVER EASTERN NC. IN ADDITION...A
SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE PROBABLE OVER EAST-CENTRAL NC -
INCLUDING AT KRWI - IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE FRONT AND
LOWER CLOUD BASES...THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 4-8 KT RANGE FROM THE NORTH...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN RAIN; SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS; AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BLAES
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 300626
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
226 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRI. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
POLAR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE
NC COAST ON SAT..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 PM WEDNESDAY...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THE LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAVING MOVED INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN... WHILE THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT (INDICATED BY A FALL-
OFF IN DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE THETA-E IN ITS WAKE) IS A BIT FURTHER
NW... STRETCHING ACROSS THE WRN PIEDMONT. MID LEVEL VORTICITY
SWEEPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE INCOMING TROUGH... AS WELL AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 90+ KT JET TO OUR
NNE... APPEAR RESPONSIBLE FOR THE REBIRTH OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE WRN PIEDMONT... WELL MODELED BY THE LATEST RAP MODEL. THE RAP
ALONG WITH THE HI RES WRF ARW/NMM MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW CWA FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS... BEFORE SHIFTING RAIN JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 07Z OR 08Z. WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES WITH TIMING
AND TO INCREASE COVERAGE... BUT OTHERWISE THE GENERAL PATH OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. EXTRAPOLATION OF OBSERVED AND UPSTREAM TEMPS
ALONG WITH NEAR TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE GLAMP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT LOWS FROM 44 NW TO 56 SE... WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
FROM NW TO SE AS DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES OVER. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT SEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITHIN THE EVOLVING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US
IMPELLED BY THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OUT OF EASTERN
MANITOBA.

DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND
VEERING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE TONIGHTS FROPA WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER. HIGHS 63 TO 68. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

...ANOMALOUS PATTERN ON SATURDAY WILL BRING CHILLY, WINDY AND RAW
CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC...

A MODERATE AMPLITUDE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AT 12Z FRIDAY DEEPENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AS AN INTENSE JET AT 500 HPA DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY
AND STRENGTHENS TO ~105KTS ON 00 UTC SUNDAY AS IT REACHES THE BASE
OF THE NOW CLOSED TROUGH OFF THE SC COAST. GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS/EC/NAM ARE ALL RATHER SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN PATTERN
WITH 500 HPA ANOMALIES OF 4-5 SD FROM NORMAL LATE SATURDAY WITH CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SIMILAR OUTCOME. AT THE SURFACE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL NC AROUND 00 UTC ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW IS UNCLEAR...CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD 12 UTC AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS AGGRESSIVELY.

LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE
FRIDAY EVENING...LIKELY AFTER MOST TRICK OR TREATING ACTIVITIES
END...AND THEN SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY AND RAW SATURDAY
SHOULD FEATURE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONSENSUS PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE PROVIDES AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH AN ARC OF HEAVIER RAIN LIKELY TO EXTEND NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK. WHILE THICKNESS VALUES
WILL CRASH EARLY SATURDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY WARM AND DEEP TO PRECLUDE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION...
EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S. A STRENGTHENING GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A COLD
AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT 10-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR MORE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE COMPLICATED
BY PRECIPITATION AND COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW OFF
THE COAST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE TRIAD
TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. THESE VALUES ARE 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND COULD THREATEN RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY(SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD VALUES).

PRECIPITATION SHOULD WRAP UP EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES BY
SUNDAY MORNING RANGING IN THE 1305-1315M RANGE. DESPITE THE CLEARING
SKIES AND CHILLY THICKNESS VALUES...MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM BOTTOMING OUT COMPLETELY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING BETWEEN 50-55 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE PERIOD WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 30S AND PERHAPS
SOME UPPER 20S IN SPOTS.

FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
DEVELOPS. A SHEARING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS BUT GIVEN
THE LATE ARRIVAL ON DAY 7...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND
JUST INCREASE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ON
MONDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BY WEDNESDAY. -BLAES

&&
.CLIMATE...

RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST

        LO-MAX

RDU     50/1925
GSO     45/1925
FAY     48/1988

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM THURSDAY...

VFR CEILINGS MAINLY BETWEEN 4-9 THOUSAND FT WILL ONLY SLOWLY CLEAR
OUT FROM THE WEST...AS THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH ALOFT DRAWS MOIST
AIR UP AND OVER A SURFACE FRONT OVER EASTERN NC. IN ADDITION...A
SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE PROBABLE OVER EAST-CENTRAL NC -
INCLUDING AT KRWI - IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE FRONT AND
LOWER CLOUD BASES...THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 4-8 KT RANGE FROM THE NORTH...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN RAIN; SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS; AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BLAES
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 300105
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
905 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY... AND AN
ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... WILL
RESULT IN WET BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 905 PM WEDNESDAY...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THE LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAVING MOVED INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN... WHILE THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT (INDICATED BY A FALL-
OFF IN DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE THETA-E IN ITS WAKE) IS A BIT FURTHER
NW... STRETCHING ACROSS THE WRN PIEDMONT. MID LEVEL VORTICITY
SWEEPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE INCOMING TROUGH... AS WELL AS UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 90+ KT JET TO OUR
NNE... APPEAR RESPONSIBLE FOR THE REBIRTH OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE WRN PIEDMONT... WELL MODELED BY THE LATEST RAP MODEL. THE RAP
ALONG WITH THE HI RES WRF ARW/NMM MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW CWA FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS... BEFORE SHIFTING RAIN JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 07Z OR 08Z. WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES WITH TIMING
AND TO INCREASE COVERAGE... BUT OTHERWISE THE GENERAL PATH OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. EXTRAPOLATION OF OBSERVED AND UPSTREAM TEMPS
ALONG WITH NEAR TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE GLAMP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT LOWS FROM 44 NW TO 56 SE... WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
FROM NW TO SE AS DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES OVER. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT SEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITHIN THE EVOLVING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US
IMPELLED BY THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OUT OF EASTERN
MANITOBA.

DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND
VEERING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE TONIGHTS FROPA WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER. HIGHS 63 TO 68. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

...ANOMALOUS PATTERN ON SATURDAY WILL BRING CHILLY, WINDY AND RAW
CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC...

A MODERATE AMPLITUDE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AT 12Z FRIDAY DEEPENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AS AN INTENSE JET AT 500 HPA DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY
AND STRENGTHENS TO ~105KTS ON 00 UTC SUNDAY AS IT REACHES THE BASE
OF THE NOW CLOSED TROUGH OFF THE SC COAST. GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS/EC/NAM ARE ALL RATHER SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN PATTERN
WITH 500 HPA ANOMALIES OF 4-5 SD FROM NORMAL LATE SATURDAY WITH CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SIMILAR OUTCOME. AT THE SURFACE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL NC AROUND 00 UTC ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW IS UNCLEAR...CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD 12 UTC AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS AGGRESSIVELY.

LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE
FRIDAY EVENING...LIKELY AFTER MOST TRICK OR TREATING ACTIVITIES
END...AND THEN SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY AND RAW SATURDAY
SHOULD FEATURE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONSENSUS PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE PROVIDES AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH AN ARC OF HEAVIER RAIN LIKELY TO EXTEND NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK. WHILE THICKNESS VALUES
WILL CRASH EARLY SATURDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY WARM AND DEEP TO PRECLUDE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION...
EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S. A STRENGTHENING GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A COLD
AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT 10-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR MORE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE COMPLICATED
BY PRECIPITATION AND COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW OFF
THE COAST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE TRIAD
TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. THESE VALUES ARE 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND COULD THREATEN RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY(SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD VALUES).

PRECIPITATION SHOULD WRAP UP EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES BY
SUNDAY MORNING RANGING IN THE 1305-1315M RANGE. DESPITE THE CLEARING
SKIES AND CHILLY THICKNESS VALUES...MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM BOTTOMING OUT COMPLETELY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING BETWEEN 50-55 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE PERIOD WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 30S AND PERHAPS
SOME UPPER 20S IN SPOTS.

FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
DEVELOPS. A SHEARING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS BUT GIVEN
THE LATE ARRIVAL ON DAY 7...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND
JUST INCREASE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ON
MONDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BY WEDNESDAY. -BLAES

&&
.CLIMATE...

RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST"

        LO-MAX

RDU     50/1925
GSO     45/1925
FAY     48/1988


&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM WEDNESDAY...

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS WILL ONLY LAST BETWEEN 00Z-02Z OR SO AT
KRWI AND KFAY THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
SPREAD EAST THROUGHOUT THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT KFAY AND KRWI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT BETWEEN 00Z-02Z BUT REMAIN LESS THAN 12KT. WINDS ELSEWHERE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NNE AND DROP OFF IN SPEED... TO LESS
THAN 6KT OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

THEN... FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. HOWEVER... THE TRACK
OF THE LOW IS STILL IN QUESTION AS ARE THE RESULTANT CIGS/VSBYS
ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES. GUSTY NW WINDS AT 15-25KT EXPECTED IN THE
REAR OF THE STORM SYSTEM SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT NIGHT.

A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL/GIH
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BLAES
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...PWB





000
FXUS62 KRAH 292338
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
735 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN WET BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 258 PM WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT..WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG A LINE FROM MT
AIRY TO ASHEVILLE...HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS WHILE ASSOCIATED BAND OF PRECIP HAS PRETTY MUCH HIT
THE SKIDS. EXPECTED FROPA TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 20-
22Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 22-00Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 00-03Z(~3 HOURS SLOWER THAN WHAT MODELS
WERE SHOWING THIS TIME YESTERDAY).

WHILE RECENT RADAR TRENDS LEAVE LITTLE TO GET EXCITED ABOUT...ANA-
FRONTAL REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE DIVERGENT RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A
JET STREAK IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SPREADS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND
PROVIDES DEEPER/COUPLED ASCENT ATOP THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE COUPLED FORCING...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL OTHERWISE HINDER PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY. INITIALLY...CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST
OVERNIGHT. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS MOSTLY BETWEEN 45 TO 55 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT SEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITHIN THE EVOLVING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US
IMPELLED BY THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OUT OF EASTERN
MANITOBA.

DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND
VEERING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE TONIGHTS FROPA WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER. HIGHS 63 TO 68. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

...ANOMALOUS PATTERN ON SATURDAY WILL BRING CHILLY, WINDY AND RAW
CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC...

A MODERATE AMPLITUDE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AT 12Z FRIDAY DEEPENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AS AN INTENSE JET AT 500 HPA DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY
AND STRENGTHENS TO ~105KTS ON 00 UTC SUNDAY AS IT REACHES THE BASE
OF THE NOW CLOSED TROUGH OFF THE SC COAST. GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS/EC/NAM ARE ALL RATHER SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN PATTERN
WITH 500 HPA ANOMALIES OF 4-5 SD FROM NORMAL LATE SATURDAY WITH CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SIMILAR OUTCOME. AT THE SURFACE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL NC AROUND 00 UTC ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW IS UNCLEAR...CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD 12 UTC AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS AGGRESSIVELY.

LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE
FRIDAY EVENING...LIKELY AFTER MOST TRICK OR TREATING ACTIVITIES
END...AND THEN SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY AND RAW SATURDAY
SHOULD FEATURE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONSENSUS PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE PROVIDES AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH AN ARC OF HEAVIER RAIN LIKELY TO EXTEND NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK. WHILE THICKNESS VALUES
WILL CRASH EARLY SATURDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY WARM AND DEEP TO PRECLUDE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION...
EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S. A STRENGTHENING GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A COLD
AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT 10-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR MORE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE COMPLICATED
BY PRECIPITATION AND COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW OFF
THE COAST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE TRIAD
TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. THESE VALUES ARE 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND COULD THREATEN RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY(SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD VALUES).

PRECIPITATION SHOULD WRAP UP EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES BY
SUNDAY MORNING RANGING IN THE 1305-1315M RANGE. DESPITE THE CLEARING
SKIES AND CHILLY THICKNESS VALUES...MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM BOTTOMING OUT COMPLETELY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING BETWEEN 50-55 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE PERIOD WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 30S AND PERHAPS
SOME UPPER 20S IN SPOTS.

FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
DEVELOPS. A SHEARING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS BUT GIVEN
THE LATE ARRIVAL ON DAY 7...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND
JUST INCREASE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ON
MONDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BY WEDNESDAY. -BLAES

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST"

        LO-MAX

RDU     50/1925
GSO     45/1925
FAY     48/1988


&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM WEDNESDAY...

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS WILL ONLY LAST BETWEEN 00Z-02Z OR SO AT
KRWI AND KFAY THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
SPREAD EAST THROUGHOUT THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT KFAY AND KRWI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT BETWEEN 00Z-02Z BUT REMAIN LESS THAN 12KT. WINDS ELSEWHERE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NNE AND DROP OFF IN SPEED... TO LESS
THAN 6KT OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.

THEN... FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. HOWEVER... THE TRACK
OF THE LOW IS STILL IN QUESTION AS ARE THE RESULTANT CIGS/VSBYS
ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES. GUSTY NW WINDS AT 15-25KT EXPECTED IN THE
REAR OF THE STORM SYSTEM SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT NIGHT.

A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/MWS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BLAES
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...PWB





000
FXUS62 KRAH 291954
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN WET BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 258 PM WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT..WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG A LINE FROM MT
AIRY TO ASHEVILLE...HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS WHILE ASSOCIATED BAND OF PRECIP HAS PRETTY MUCH HIT
THE SKIDS. EXPECTED FROPA TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 20-
22Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 22-00Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 00-03Z(~3 HOURS SLOWER THAN WHAT MODELS
WERE SHOWING THIS TIME YESTERDAY).

WHILE RECENT RADAR TRENDS LEAVE LITTLE TO GET EXCITED ABOUT...ANA-
FRONTAL REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE DIVERGENT RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A
JET STREAK IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SPREADS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND
PROVIDES DEEPER/COUPLED ASCENT ATOP THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE COUPLED FORCING...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL OTHERWISE HINDER PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY. INITIALLY...CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST
OVERNIGHT. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS MOSTLY BETWEEN 45 TO 55 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT SEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITHIN THE EVOLVING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US
IMPELLED BY THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OUT OF EASTERN
MANITOBA.

DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND
VEERING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE TONIGHTS FROPA WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER. HIGHS 63 TO 68. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

...ANOMALOUS PATTERN ON SATURDAY WILL BRING CHILLY, WINDY AND RAW
CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC...

A MODERATE AMPLITUDE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AT 12Z FRIDAY DEEPENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AS AN INTENSE JET AT 500 HPA DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY
AND STRENGTHENS TO ~105KTS ON 00 UTC SUNDAY AS IT REACHES THE BASE
OF THE NOW CLOSED TROUGH OFF THE SC COAST. GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS/EC/NAM ARE ALL RATHER SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN PATTERN
WITH 500 HPA ANOMALIES OF 4-5 SD FROM NORMAL LATE SATURDAY WITH CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SIMILAR OUTCOME. AT THE SURFACE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL NC AROUND 00 UTC ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW IS UNCLEAR...CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD 12 UTC AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS AGGRESSIVELY.

LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE
FRIDAY EVENING...LIKELY AFTER MOST TRICK OR TREATING ACTIVITIES
END...AND THEN SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY AND RAW SATURDAY
SHOULD FEATURE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONSENSUS PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE PROVIDES AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH AN ARC OF HEAVIER RAIN LIKELY TO EXTEND NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK. WHILE THICKNESS VALUES
WILL CRASH EARLY SATURDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY WARM AND DEEP TO PRECLUDE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION...
EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S. A STRENGTHENING GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A COLD
AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT 10-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR MORE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE COMPLICATED
BY PRECIPITATION AND COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW OFF
THE COAST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE TRIAD
TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. THESE VALUES ARE 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND COULD THREATEN RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY(SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR RECORD VALUES).

PRECIPITATION SHOULD WRAP UP EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES BY
SUNDAY MORNING RANGING IN THE 1305-1315M RANGE. DESPITE THE CLEARING
SKIES AND CHILLY THICKNESS VALUES...MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM BOTTOMING OUT COMPLETELY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING BETWEEN 50-55 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE PERIOD WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 30S AND PERHAPS
SOME UPPER 20S IN SPOTS.

FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
DEVELOPS. A SHEARING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS BUT GIVEN
THE LATE ARRIVAL ON DAY 7...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND
JUST INCREASE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ON
MONDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BY WEDNESDAY. -BLAES

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 1ST"

        LO-MAX

RDU     50/1925
GSO     45/1925
FAY     48/1988


&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BROKEN
BAND OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC....WITH
TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 20-22Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 22-
00Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 00-03Z. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. POST-FRONTAL DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WEST-
EAST CLEARING BETWEEN 06 TO 15Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ALONG WITH BLUSTERY NW
WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/MWS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BLAES
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 291924
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN WET BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 258 PM WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT..WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG A LINE FROM MT
AIRY TO ASHEVILLE...HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS WHILE ASSOCIATED BAND OF PRECIP HAS PRETTY MUCH HIT
THE SKIDS. EXPECTED FROPA TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 20-
22Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 22-00Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 00-03Z(~3 HOURS SLOWER THAN WHAT MODELS
WERE SHOWING THIS TIME YESTERDAY).

WHILE RECENT RADAR TRENDS LEAVE LITTLE TO GET EXCITED ABOUT...ANA-
FRONTAL REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE DIVERGENT RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A
JET STREAK IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SPREADS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND
PROVIDES DEEPER/COUPLED ASCENT ATOP THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE COUPLED FORCING...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL OTHERWISE HINDER PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY. INITIALLY...CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST
OVERNIGHT. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS MOSTLY BETWEEN 45 TO 55 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT SEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITHIN THE EVOLVING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US
IMPELLED BY THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OUT OF EASTERN
MANITOBA.

DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND
VEERING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE TONIGHTS FROPA WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER. HIGHS 63 TO 68. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

...ANOMALOUS PATTERN ON SATURDAY WILL BRING CHILLY, WINDY AND RAW
CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC...

A MODERATE AMPLITUDE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AT 12Z FRIDAY DEEPENS
SIGNIFICANTLY AS AN INTENSE JET AT 500 HPA DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY
AND STRENGTHENS TO ~105KTS ON 00 UTC SUNDAY AS IT REACHES THE BASE
OF THE NOW CLOSED TROUGH OFF THE SC COAST. GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS/EC/NAM ARE ALL RATHER SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN PATTERN
WITH 500 HPA ANOMALIES OF 4-5 SD FROM NORMAL LATE SATURDAY WITH CIPS
ANALOG GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SIMILAR OUTCOME. AT THE SURFACE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL NC AROUND 00 UTC ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW IS UNCLEAR...CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD 12 UTC AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE AND DEEPENS AGGRESSIVELY.

LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE
FRIDAY EVENING...LIKELY AFTER MOST TRICK OR TREATING ACTIVITIES
END...AND THEN SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY AND RAW SATURDAY
SHOULD FEATURE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONSENSUS PRECIPITATION
GUIDANCE PROVIDES AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN WITH AN ARC OF HEAVIER RAIN LIKELY TO EXTEND NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK. WHILE THICKNESS VALUES
WILL CRASH EARLY SATURDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY WARM AND DEEP TO PRECLUDE ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION...
EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S. A STRENGTHENING GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A COLD
AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT 10-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OR MORE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE COMPLICATED
BY PRECIPITATION AND COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW OFF
THE COAST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE TRIAD
TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EAST. THESE VALUES ARE 15 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AND COULD THREATEN RECORD LOW MAX READINGS IN THE
PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD WRAP UP EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES BY
SUNDAY MORNING RANGING IN THE 1305-1315M RANGE. DESPITE THE CLEARING
SKIES AND CHILLY THICKNESS VALUES...MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM BOTTOMING OUT COMPLETELY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING BETWEEN 50-55 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE PERIOD WITH LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 30S AND PERHAPS
SOME UPPER 20S IN SPOTS.

FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS A RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
DEVELOPS. A SHEARING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS BUT GIVEN
THE LATE ARRIVAL ON DAY 7...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND
JUST INCREASE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 ON
MONDAY WILL MODERATE TO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 BY WEDNESDAY. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BROKEN
BAND OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC....WITH
TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 20-22Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 22-
00Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 00-03Z. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. POST-FRONTAL DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WEST-
EAST CLEARING BETWEEN 06 TO 15Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ALONG WITH BLUSTERY NW
WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/MWS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 291859
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
258 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN WET BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 258 PM WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT..WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG A LINE FROM MT
AIRY TO ASHEVILLE...HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS WHILE ASSOCIATED BAND OF PRECIP HAS PRETTY MUCH HIT
THE SKIDS. EXPECTED FROPA TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 20-
22Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 22-00Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 00-03Z(~3 HOURS SLOWER THAN WHAT MODELS
WERE SHOWING THIS TIME YESTERDAY).

WHILE RECENT RADAR TRENDS LEAVE LITTLE TO GET EXCITED ABOUT...ANA-
FRONTAL REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE DIVERGENT RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A
JET STREAK IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SPREADS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND
PROVIDES DEEPER/COUPLED ASCENT ATOP THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE COUPLED FORCING...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL OTHERWISE HINDER PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY. INITIALLY...CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST
OVERNIGHT. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS MOSTLY BETWEEN 45 TO 55 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL EJECT SEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY...WITHIN THE EVOLVING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US
IMPELLED BY THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OUT OF EASTERN
MANITOBA.

DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND
VEERING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE TONIGHTS FROPA WILL YIELD SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE OCTOBER. HIGHS 63 TO 68. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S...WITH SOME
UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... AHEAD OF
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING IN TO THE BASE OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING MUCH
FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS... AND INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
MIDLEVEL FLOW... WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA AND
INDUCING COASTAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE RESULTING STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BLUSTERY WINDS SATURDAY. IF THIS
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT... WE WILL SEE A COLD AND WET DAY... WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S. HAVE BEGUN TO TREND HIGHS LOWER... AND INCREASED TO
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY. AS NOTED BY WPC... THE FORECASTED PATTERN IS
QUITE ANOMALOUS... AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL AT
THIS TIME.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLEARING
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY... WHICH WILL WORK TO PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD
ADVECTION... WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S. STRONG AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... WITH FROST AND POSSIBLY FREEZE POTENTIAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY... BEGINNING A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES... WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BROKEN
BAND OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC....WITH
TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 20-22Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 22-
00Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 00-03Z. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. POST-FRONTAL DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WEST-
EAST CLEARING BETWEEN 06 TO 15Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ALONG WITH BLUSTERY NW
WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/MWS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 291804
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
205 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
CYCLOGENSIS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL RESULT IN WET BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM WEDNESDAY...

AS OF 13Z...SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS JUST CROSSED THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTO WESTERN NC...WITH ANA-FRONTAL PRECIP LAGGING EVER SO SLIGHTLY.
WITH THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...FRONT WILL
BE SLOW TO ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH EXPECTED FROPA
TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 20-22Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 22-
00Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 00-03Z(~3
HOURS SLOWER THAN WHAT MODELS WERE SHOWING THIS TIME YESTERDAY).

THE SLOWER TIMING WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST INSOLATION THROUGH AN OPAQUE
CIRRUS SHIELD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST. WHILE THE ONGOING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY APPROACH AND MOVE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE DIVERGENT RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF A JET STREAK IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SPREADS EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AND PROVIDES DEEPER/COUPLED ASCENT ATOP THE FRONTAL
CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE COUPLED FORCING...WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL OTHERWISE HINDER PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY...AND ONLY AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS EXPECTED AMIDST AN
OTHERWISE BAND OF SHOWERS.

THOUGH SOME 4-8 THOUSAND FT CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST
OVERNIGHT. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS MOSTLY BETWEEN 45 TO 55 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND UNDERLYING 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...
BEHIND THE TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AND AFFECT THE EASTERN
US DURING THE NEAR TERM...WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON THU. THE RESULT WILL BE SUNNY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.

FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW
THIS MORNING WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER ONE IN A
PRONOUNCED EARLY SEASON ARCTIC STREAM AMPLIFIES SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE SAME TIME.
DESPITE THE ASSOCIATED STEADILY FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...PRECEDING
DRYNESS/LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH FRI
MORNING SHOULD BE MERELY AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE
FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY THU NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... AHEAD OF
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING IN TO THE BASE OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING MUCH
FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS... AND INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
MIDLEVEL FLOW... WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA AND
INDUCING COASTAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE RESULTING STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BLUSTERY WINDS SATURDAY. IF THIS
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT... WE WILL SEE A COLD AND WET DAY... WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S. HAVE BEGUN TO TREND HIGHS LOWER... AND INCREASED TO
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY. AS NOTED BY WPC... THE FORECASTED PATTERN IS
QUITE ANOMALOUS... AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL AT
THIS TIME.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLEARING
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY... WHICH WILL WORK TO PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD
ADVECTION... WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S. STRONG AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... WITH FROST AND POSSIBLY FREEZE POTENTIAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY... BEGINNING A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES... WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BROKEN
BAND OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC....WITH
TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 20-22Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 22-
00Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 00-03Z. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. POST FRONATAL DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WEST-
EAST CLEARING BETWEEN 06 TO 15Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ALONG WITH BLUSTERY NW
WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 291317
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
920 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THU THROUGH FRI.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM WEDNESDAY...

AS OF 13Z SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS JUST CROSSED THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO
WESTERN NC...WITH ANA-FRONTAL PRECIP LAGGING EVER SO SLIGHTLY. WITH
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...FRONT WILL BE
SLOW TO ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH EXPECTED FROPA
TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 20-22Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 22-
00Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 00-03Z(~3
HOURS SLOWER THAN WHAT MODELS WERE SHOWING THIS TIME YESTERDAY).

THE SLOWER TIMING WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST INSOLATION THROUGH AN OPAQUE
CIRRUS SHIELD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S EAST. WHILE THE ONGOING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY APPROACH AND MOVE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE DIVERGENT RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF A JET STREAK IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SPREADS EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AND PROVIDES DEEPER/COUPLED ASCENT ATOP THE FRONTAL
CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE COUPLED FORCING...WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL OTHERWISE HINDER PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY...AND ONLY AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS EXPECTED AMIDST AN
OTHERWISE BAND OF SHOWERS.

THOUGH SOME 4-8 THOUSAND FT CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING...CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST
OVERNIGHT. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS MOSTLY BETWEEN 45 TO 55 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND UNDERLYING 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...
BEHIND THE TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AND AFFECT THE EASTERN
US DURING THE NEAR TERM...WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON THU. THE RESULT WILL BE SUNNY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.

FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW
THIS MORNING WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER ONE IN A
PRONOUNCED EARLY SEASON ARCTIC STREAM AMPLIFIES SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE SAME TIME.
DESPITE THE ASSOCIATED STEADILY FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...PRECEDING
DRYNESS/LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH FRI
MORNING SHOULD BE MERELY AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE
FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY THU NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... AHEAD OF
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING IN TO THE BASE OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING MUCH
FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS... AND INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
MIDLEVEL FLOW... WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA AND
INDUCING COASTAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE RESULTING STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BLUSTERY WINDS SATURDAY. IF THIS
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT... WE WILL SEE A COLD AND WET DAY... WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S. HAVE BEGUN TO TREND HIGHS LOWER... AND INCREASED TO
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY. AS NOTED BY WPC... THE FORECASTED PATTERN IS
QUITE ANOMALOUS... AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL AT
THIS TIME.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLEARING
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY... WHICH WILL WORK TO PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD
ADVECTION... WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S. STRONG AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... WITH FROST AND POSSIBLY FREEZE POTENTIAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY... BEGINNING A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES... WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...

LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STRATUS OVER EASTERN SC WILL MAKE
LITTLE ADDITIONAL NORTHWESTWARD PROGRESS OWING TO A VEERING OF THE
SURFACE WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SUCH THAT
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF FAY THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF ALONG AND POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS - AND ASSOCIATED IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS - MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
ONLY AROUND 2-5 HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...LONGEST AT EASTERN
SITES. A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-8 THOUSAND FT WILL LINGER
FOR A FEW HOURS EVEN AFTER THE SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MOVE
EAST...AS THE SLOW APPROACH OF A TROUGH ALOFT DRAWS MOISTURE BACK UP
AND OVER THE SURFACE FRONT.

OTHERWISE...SW SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 7-13 KTS...STRONGEST AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS AT FAY AND RWI...WILL
VEER TO WNW OR NW BEHIND THE FRONT BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
RAIN...AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 291055
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THU THROUGH FRI.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM WEDNESDAY...

WATER VAPOR AND 00Z UPPER AIR DATA REVEAL A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
ALOFT...WHICH INCLUDES SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS...FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 07Z JUST
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ASIDE FROM SOUTHERN STREAM-GENERATED CIRRUS
LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER...AND ALONG AND POST(ANA)-FRONTAL
SHOWERS...ALSO REMAINED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

A BLEND OF THE SLOWER ECMWF AND RAP FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS FAVORED
GIVEN THAT THE ASSOCIATED COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR HAS STILL NOT
REACHED THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE FLOW ALOFT IS FRONT-PARALLEL/
SOUTHWESTERLY. AS SUCH...MODEST INSOLATION THROUGH THE CIRRUS AND
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S
EAST...WITH EXPECTED FROPA TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 20-
22Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 22-00Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 00-03Z. WHILE THE ONGOING SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY APPROACH AND MOVE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE DIVERGENT RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF A JET STREAK IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SPREADS EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AND PROVIDES DEEPER/COUPLED ASCENT ATOP THE FRONTAL
CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE COUPLED FORCING...WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL OTHERWISE HINDER PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY...AND ONLY AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS EXPECTED AMIDST AN
OTHERWISE BAND OF SHOWERS.

THOUGH SOME 4-8 THOUSAND FT CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING OWING TO THE ONLY SLOW APPROACH OF THE TROUGH
ALOFT...CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. CAA-DRIVEN
LOWS MOSTLY BETWEEN 45 TO 55 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND UNDERLYING 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...
BEHIND THE TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AND AFFECT THE EASTERN
US DURING THE NEAR TERM...WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON THU. THE RESULT WILL BE SUNNY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.

FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW
THIS MORNING WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER ONE IN A
PRONOUNCED EARLY SEASON ARCTIC STREAM AMPLIFIES SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE SAME TIME.
DESPITE THE ASSOCIATED STEADILY FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...PRECEDING
DRYNESS/LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH FRI
MORNING SHOULD BE MERELY AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE
FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY THU NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... AHEAD OF
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING IN TO THE BASE OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING MUCH
FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS... AND INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
MIDLEVEL FLOW... WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA AND
INDUCING COASTAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE RESULTING STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BLUSTERY WINDS SATURDAY. IF THIS
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT... WE WILL SEE A COLD AND WET DAY... WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S. HAVE BEGUN TO TREND HIGHS LOWER... AND INCREASED TO
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY. AS NOTED BY WPC... THE FORECASTED PATTERN IS
QUITE ANOMALOUS... AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL AT
THIS TIME.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLEARING
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY... WHICH WILL WORK TO PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD
ADVECTION... WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S. STRONG AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... WITH FROST AND POSSIBLY FREEZE POTENTIAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY... BEGINNING A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES... WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...

LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STRATUS OVER EASTERN SC WILL MAKE
LITTLE ADDITIONAL NORTHWESTWARD PROGRESS OWING TO A VEERING OF THE
SURFACE WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SUCH THAT
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF FAY THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF ALONG AND POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS - AND ASSOCIATED IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS - MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
ONLY AROUND 2-5 HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATION...LONGEST AT EASTERN
SITES. A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 4-8 THOUSAND FT WILL LINGER
FOR A FEW HOURS EVEN AFTER THE SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MOVE
EAST...AS THE SLOW APPROACH OF A TROUGH ALOFT DRAWS MOISTURE BACK UP
AND OVER THE SURFACE FRONT.

OTHERWISE...SW SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 7-13 KTS...STRONGEST AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS AT FAY AND RWI...WILL
VEER TO WNW OR NW BEHIND THE FRONT BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
RAIN...AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 290743
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
343 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THU THROUGH FRI.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM WEDNESDAY...

WATER VAPOR AND 00Z UPPER AIR DATA REVEAL A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
ALOFT...WHICH INCLUDES SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS...FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 07Z JUST
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ASIDE FROM SOUTHERN STREAM-GENERATED CIRRUS
LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER...AND ALONG AND POST(ANA)-FRONTAL
SHOWERS...ALSO REMAINED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

A BLEND OF THE SLOWER ECMWF AND RAP FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS FAVORED
GIVEN THAT THE ASSOCIATED COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIR HAS STILL NOT
REACHED THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE FLOW ALOFT IS FRONT-PARALLEL/
SOUTHWESTERLY. AS SUCH...MODEST INSOLATION THROUGH THE CIRRUS AND
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S
EAST...WITH EXPECTED FROPA TIMING IN THE NW PIEDMONT BETWEEN 18-
21Z...THE TRIANGLE BETWEEN 21-23Z...AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN SANDHILLS BETWEEN 23-02Z. WHILE THE ONGOING SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY APPROACH AND MOVE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS THE DIVERGENT RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF A JET STREAK IN THE NORTHERN STREAM SPREADS EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AND PROVIDES DEEPER/COUPLED ASCENT ATOP THE FRONTAL
CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE COUPLED FORCING...WEAK LAPSE
RATES AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL OTHERWISE HINDER PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY...AND ONLY AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS EXPECTED AMIDST AN
OTHERWISE BAND OF SHOWERS.

THOUGH SOME 4-8 THOUSAND FT CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING OWING TO THE ONLY SLOW APPROACH OF THE TROUGH
ALOFT...CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD  EAST OVERNIGHT. CAA-DRIVEN
LOWS MOSTLY BETWEEN 45 TO 55 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND UNDERLYING 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...
BEHIND THE TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AND AFFECT THE EASTERN
US DURING THE NEAR TERM...WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON THU. THE RESULT WILL BE SUNNY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.

FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW
THIS MORNING WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER ONE IN A
PRONOUNCED EARLY SEASON ARCTIC STREAM AMPLIFIES SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE SAME TIME.
DESPITE THE ASSOCIATED STEADILY FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...PRECEDING
DRYNESS/LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH FRI
MORNING SHOULD BE MERELY AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE
FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY THU NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... AHEAD OF
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING IN TO THE BASE OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING MUCH
FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS... AND INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
MIDLEVEL FLOW... WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA AND
INDUCING COASTAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE RESULTING STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BLUSTERY WINDS SATURDAY. IF THIS
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT... WE WILL SEE A COLD AND WET DAY... WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S. HAVE BEGUN TO TREND HIGHS LOWER... AND INCREASED TO
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY. AS NOTED BY WPC... THE FORECASTED PATTERN IS
QUITE ANOMALOUS... AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL AT
THIS TIME.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLEARING
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY... WHICH WILL WORK TO PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD
ADVECTION... WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S. STRONG AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... WITH FROST AND POSSIBLY FREEZE POTENTIAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY... BEGINNING A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES... WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...

ASIDE FROM A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF LIFR-IFR STRATUS AT KFAY
BETWEEN 10-14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF ALONG AND POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS - AND
ASSOCIATED IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS -
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST ONLY AROUND 3
HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATION. A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
4-8 THOUSAND FT WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS EVEN AFTER THE SHOWERS
AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MOVE EAST. OTHERWISE...SW SURFACE WINDS
BETWEEN 7-13 KTS...STRONGEST AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE UPPER
TEENS KTS AT FAY AND RWI...WILL VEER TO WNW OR NW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
RAIN...AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 290715
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THU THROUGH FRI.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW BAND OF LOW-TOP CONVECTION THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...~18Z IN THE TRIAD...-21Z THROUGH THE
TRIANGLE...EXITING COASTAL PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR ~00Z THU.  WHILE
FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT HEATING FROM THE
TRIANGLE EASTWARD...WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY LOW
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND
WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH A CLAP OR TWO OF THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE. COMMENCEMENT OF STRONG CAA ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT DURING THE LATTER/SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...COINCIDENT WITH
TYPICAL PEAK HEATING...WILL MAKE FOR A LARGER THAN NORMAL NW-SE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS RANGING FROM
MID/UPPER 60S NW TO UPPER 70S SE.

POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE AND CAA WILL LEAD TO WEST-EAST CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. LOWS 45 TO 55.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND UNDERLYING 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...
BEHIND THE TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AND AFFECT THE EASTERN
US DURING THE NEAR TERM...WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON THU. THE RESULT WILL BE SUNNY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.

FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW
THIS MORNING WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY FRI MORNING...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER ONE IN A
PRONOUNCED EARLY SEASON ARCTIC STREAM AMPLIFIES SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE SAME TIME.
DESPITE THE ASSOCIATED STEADILY FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PAIR OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...PRECEDING
DRYNESS/LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE SUGGESTS THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH FRI
MORNING SHOULD BE MERELY AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS THE
FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY THU NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... AHEAD OF
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING IN TO THE BASE OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING MUCH
FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS... AND INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
MIDLEVEL FLOW... WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA AND
INDUCING COASTAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE RESULTING STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BLUSTERY WINDS SATURDAY. IF THIS
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT... WE WILL SEE A COLD AND WET DAY... WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S. HAVE BEGUN TO TREND HIGHS LOWER... AND INCREASED TO
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY. AS NOTED BY WPC... THE FORECASTED PATTERN IS
QUITE ANOMALOUS... AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL AT
THIS TIME.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLEARING
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY... WHICH WILL WORK TO PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD
ADVECTION... WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S. STRONG AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... WITH FROST AND POSSIBLY FREEZE POTENTIAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY... BEGINNING A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES... WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...

ASIDE FROM A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF LIFR-IFR STRATUS AT KFAY
BETWEEN 10-14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF ALONG AND POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS - AND
ASSOCIATED IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS -
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST ONLY AROUND 3
HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATION. A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
4-8 THOUSAND FT WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS EVEN AFTER THE SHOWERS
AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MOVE EAST. OTHERWISE...SW SURFACE WINDS
BETWEEN 7-13 KTS...STRONGEST AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE UPPER
TEENS KTS AT FAY AND RWI...WILL VEER TO WNW OR NW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
RAIN...AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 290711
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
311 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THU THROUGH FRI.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 933 PM TUESDAY...

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. FEW IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A LEE-SIDE TROUGH AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT THOUGH STEADY SSW FOW OVER CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT. THIS FLOW WILL ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS IS ALREADY
EVIDENT AS SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE 50S. LATEST SREF
GUIDANCE CONSISTENT IN ITS DEPICTION OF A BAND OF LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING AFTER 04Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. MEANWHILE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING ALOFT AS L/W TROUGH MOVES
STEADILY THOUGH SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. THE
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL YIELD OVERNIGHT TEMPS 6-9 DEGREES
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW BAND OF LOW-TOP CONVECTION THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...~18Z IN THE TRIAD...-21Z THROUGH THE
TRIANGLE...EXITING COASTAL PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR ~00Z THU.
WHILE FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT HEATING
FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY
LOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND WILL
PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH A CLAP OR TWO OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE. COMMENCEMENT OF STRONG CAA ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
DURING THE LATTER/SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...COINCIDENT WITH TYPICAL
PEAK HEATING...WILL MAKE FOR A LARGER THAN NORMAL NW-SE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 60S
NW TO UPPER 70S SE.

POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE AND CAA WILL LEAD TO WEST-EAST CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. LOWS 45 TO 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY... AHEAD OF
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING IN TO THE BASE OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING MUCH
FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS... AND INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
MIDLEVEL FLOW... WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW CROSSING THE AREA AND
INDUCING COASTAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE RESULTING STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BLUSTERY WINDS SATURDAY. IF THIS
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT... WE WILL SEE A COLD AND WET DAY... WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S. HAVE BEGUN TO TREND HIGHS LOWER... AND INCREASED TO
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY. AS NOTED BY WPC... THE FORECASTED PATTERN IS
QUITE ANOMALOUS... AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL AT
THIS TIME.

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLEARING
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY... WHICH WILL WORK TO PARTIALLY OFFSET COLD
ADVECTION... WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S. STRONG AND COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE DIRECTLY
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... WITH FROST AND POSSIBLY FREEZE POTENTIAL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY... BEGINNING A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES... WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...

ASIDE FROM A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF LIFR-IFR STRATUS AT KFAY
BETWEEN 10-14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF ALONG AND POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS - AND
ASSOCIATED IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS -
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST ONLY AROUND 3
HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATION. A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
4-8 THOUSAND FT WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS EVEN AFTER THE SHOWERS
AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MOVE EAST. OTHERWISE...SW SURFACE WINDS
BETWEEN 7-13 KTS...STRONGEST AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE UPPER
TEENS KTS AT FAY AND RWI...WILL VEER TO WNW OR NW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
RAIN...AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 290631
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
231 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THU THROUGH FRI.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 933 PM TUESDAY...

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. FEW IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A LEE-SIDE TROUGH AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT THOUGH STEADY SSW FOW OVER CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT. THIS FLOW WILL ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS IS ALREADY
EVIDENT AS SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE 50S. LATEST SREF
GUIDANCE CONSISTENT IN ITS DEPICTION OF A BAND OF LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING AFTER 04Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. MEANWHILE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING ALOFT AS L/W TROUGH MOVES
STEADILY THOUGH SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. THE
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL YIELD OVERNIGHT TEMPS 6-9 DEGREES
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW BAND OF LOW-TOP CONVECTION THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...~18Z IN THE TRIAD...-21Z THROUGH THE
TRIANGLE...EXITING COASTAL PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR ~00Z THU.
WHILE FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT HEATING
FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY
LOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND WILL
PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH A CLAP OR TWO OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE. COMMENCEMENT OF STRONG CAA ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
DURING THE LATTER/SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...COINCIDENT WITH TYPICAL
PEAK HEATING...WILL MAKE FOR A LARGER THAN NORMAL NW-SE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 60S
NW TO UPPER 70S SE.

POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE AND CAA WILL LEAD TO WEST-EAST CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. LOWS 45 TO 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...

BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN FROM THE WEST AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND WEDNESDAY`S
FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO FALL ABOUT 40M WITH THE
FRONT...STARTING OUT AROUND 1335M EACH DAY...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S...JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE A STRONG VORT MAX PROGGED TO DIVE OUT OF
CANADA AND CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AS
HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO FALL REGION-WIDE.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED
STRONGER...FURTHER SOUTH AND WETTER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WITH IT
CLOSING OFF OVER US ON SATURDAY....WHICH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT AND RATHER CHILLY SHOWERS WILL BE GREATER FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...AS
WELL AS ITS ORIGIN AND DATA COVERAGE.  HAVE PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT THESE COULD BE HIGHER AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AS A COASTAL LOW SPINS UP IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT
FALLS AND THEN LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN US...SETTLING OVERHEAD BY MONDAY MORNING.
THICKNESSES FALLING TO NEAR 1305M WOULD SUGGEST UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S...ESPECIALLY UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.  THUS...AS HAS
BEEN ALLUDED TO IN PRIOR FORECASTS...A FROST AND/OR FREEZE APPEARS
LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS...BEFORE TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...

ASIDE FROM A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF LIFR-IFR STRATUS AT KFAY
BETWEEN 10-14Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF ALONG AND POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS - AND
ASSOCIATED IFR-MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS -
MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST ONLY AROUND 3
HOURS AT ANY ONE LOCATION. A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
4-8 THOUSAND FT WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS EVEN AFTER THE SHOWERS
AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MOVE EAST. OTHERWISE...SW SURFACE WINDS
BETWEEN 7-13 KTS...STRONGEST AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE UPPER
TEENS KTS AT FAY AND RWI...WILL VEER TO WNW OR NW BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OUTLOOK: THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG POLAR FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
RAIN...AND BLUSTERY NW WINDS...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 290131
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
933 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE STATE BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 933 PM TUESDAY...

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. FEW IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A LEE-SIDE TROUGH AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT THOUGH STEADY SSW FOW OVER CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT. THIS FLOW WILL ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS IS ALREADY
EVIDENT AS SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE 50S. LATEST SREF
GUIDANCE CONSISTENT IN ITS DEPICTION OF A BAND OF LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING AFTER 04Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. MEANWHILE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING ALOFT AS L/W TROUGH MOVES
STEADILY THOUGH SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. THE
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL YIELD OVERNIGHT TEMPS 6-9 DEGREES
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW BAND OF LOW-TOP CONVECTION THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...~18Z IN THE TRIAD...-21Z THROUGH THE
TRIANGLE...EXITING COASTAL PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR ~00Z THU.
WHILE FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT HEATING
FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY
LOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND WILL
PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH A CLAP OR TWO OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE. COMMENCEMENT OF STRONG CAA ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
DURING THE LATTER/SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...COINCIDENT WITH TYPICAL
PEAK HEATING...WILL MAKE FOR A LARGER THAN NORMAL NW-SE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 60S
NW TO UPPER 70S SE.

POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE AND CAA WILL LEAD TO WEST-EAST CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. LOWS 45 TO 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...

BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN FROM THE WEST AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND WEDNESDAY`S
FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO FALL ABOUT 40M WITH THE
FRONT...STARTING OUT AROUND 1335M EACH DAY...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S...JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE A STRONG VORT MAX PROGGED TO DIVE OUT OF
CANADA AND CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AS
HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO FALL REGION-WIDE.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED
STRONGER...FURTHER SOUTH AND WETTER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WITH IT
CLOSING OFF OVER US ON SATURDAY....WHICH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT AND RATHER CHILLY SHOWERS WILL BE GREATER FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...AS
WELL AS ITS ORIGIN AND DATA COVERAGE.  HAVE PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT THESE COULD BE HIGHER AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AS A COASTAL LOW SPINS UP IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT
FALLS AND THEN LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN US...SETTLING OVERHEAD BY MONDAY MORNING.
THICKNESSES FALLING TO NEAR 1305M WOULD SUGGEST UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S...ESPECIALLY UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.  THUS...AS HAS
BEEN ALLUDED TO IN PRIOR FORECASTS...A FROST AND/OR FREEZE APPEARS
LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS...BEFORE TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MVFR FOG AT KRWI AND KFAY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY SPRINKLES OF VERY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...
REACHING THE KINT/KGSO AREAS BETWEEN 18Z-21Z... THEN KRDU AROUND
23Z... AND KFAY AND KRWI AROUND 00Z/29.

LOOKING BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
LATER WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING SE INTO THE AREA MAY BRING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY ALONG
WITH STRONG/BLUSTERY NWLY WINDS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...CBL/PWB





000
FXUS62 KRAH 282336
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE STATE BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE APT TO REDEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH
LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FURTHER INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW. MID-HIGH
CLOUDS WILL OTHERWISE STEADILY INCREASE FROM THE WEST ESPECIALLY
LATE...WITH MILDER LOWS AMIDST A STEADY 5KT SWLY WIND. LOWS
IN THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW BAND OF LOW-TOP CONVECTION THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...~18Z IN THE TRIAD...-21Z THROUGH THE
TRIANGLE...EXITING COASTAL PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR ~00Z THU.
WHILE FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT HEATING
FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY
LOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND WILL
PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH A CLAP OR TWO OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE. COMMENCEMENT OF STRONG CAA ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
DURING THE LATTER/SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...COINCIDENT WITH TYPICAL
PEAK HEATING...WILL MAKE FOR A LARGER THAN NORMAL NW-SE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 60S
NW TO UPPER 70S SE.

POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE AND CAA WILL LEAD TO WEST-EAST CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. LOWS 45 TO 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...

BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN FROM THE WEST AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND WEDNESDAY`S
FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO FALL ABOUT 40M WITH THE
FRONT...STARTING OUT AROUND 1335M EACH DAY...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S...JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE A STRONG VORT MAX PROGGED TO DIVE OUT OF
CANADA AND CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AS
HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO FALL REGION-WIDE.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED
STRONGER...FURTHER SOUTH AND WETTER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WITH IT
CLOSING OFF OVER US ON SATURDAY....WHICH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT AND RATHER CHILLY SHOWERS WILL BE GREATER FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...AS
WELL AS ITS ORIGIN AND DATA COVERAGE.  HAVE PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT THESE COULD BE HIGHER AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AS A COASTAL LOW SPINS UP IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT
FALLS AND THEN LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN US...SETTLING OVERHEAD BY MONDAY MORNING.
THICKNESSES FALLING TO NEAR 1305M WOULD SUGGEST UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S...ESPECIALLY UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.  THUS...AS HAS
BEEN ALLUDED TO IN PRIOR FORECASTS...A FROST AND/OR FREEZE APPEARS
LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS...BEFORE TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID-DAY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MVFR FOG AT KRWI AND KFAY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY SPRINKLES OF VERY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...
REACHING THE KINT/KGSO AREAS BETWEEN 18Z-21Z... THEN KRDU AROUND
23Z... AND KFAY AND KRWI AROUND 00Z/29.

LOOKING BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
LATER WED NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING SE INTO THE AREA MAY BRING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY ALONG
WITH STRONG/BLUSTERY NWLY WINDS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...CBL/PWB





000
FXUS62 KRAH 281909
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE APT TO REDEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH
LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FURTHER INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW. MID-HIGH
CLOUDS WILL OTHERWISE STEADILY INCREASE FROM THE WEST ESPECIALLY
LATE...WITH MILDER LOWS AMIDST A STEADY 5KT SWLY WIND. LOWS
IN THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW BAND OF LOW-TOP CONVECTION THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...~18Z IN THE TRIAD...-21Z THROUGH THE
TRIANGLE...EXITING COASTAL PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR ~00Z THU.
WHILE FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT HEATING
FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY
LOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND WILL
PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH A CLAP OR TWO OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE. COMMENCEMENT OF STRONG CAA ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
DURING THE LATTER/SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...COINCIDENT WITH TYPICAL
PEAK HEATING...WILL MAKE FOR A LARGER THAN NORMAL NW-SE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 60S
NW TO UPPER 70S SE.

POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE AND CAA WILL LEAD TO WEST-EAST CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. LOWS 45 TO 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...

BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN FROM THE WEST AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND WEDNESDAY`S
FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO FALL ABOUT 40M WITH THE
FRONT...STARTING OUT AROUND 1335M EACH DAY...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S...JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE A STRONG VORT MAX PROGGED TO DIVE OUT OF
CANADA AND CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AS
HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO FALL REGION-WIDE.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED
STRONGER...FURTHER SOUTH AND WETTER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WITH IT
CLOSING OFF OVER US ON SATURDAY....WHICH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT AND RATHER CHILLY SHOWERS WILL BE GREATER FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...AS
WELL AS ITS ORIGIN AND DATA COVERAGE.  HAVE PUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT THESE COULD BE HIGHER AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

AS A COASTAL LOW SPINS UP IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT
FALLS AND THEN LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN US...SETTLING OVERHEAD BY MONDAY MORNING.
THICKNESSES FALLING TO NEAR 1305M WOULD SUGGEST UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S...ESPECIALLY UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.  THUS...AS HAS
BEEN ALLUDED TO IN PRIOR FORECASTS...A FROST AND/OR FREEZE APPEARS
LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS...BEFORE TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.


&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR OCTOBER 28TH:

        MAX         HI-MIN

RDU     86/1919     69/1984
GSO     86/1919     64/1919
FAY     87/1919     65/2010


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SWLY WINDS TO OCCASIONALLY GUST INTO
THE UPPER TEENS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE APT TO REDEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH
LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBABILITIES
SHOWING BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST/COASTAL PLAIN...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FURTHER INCREASES IN THE STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW IN ADVANCE
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED NARROW BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN WED 18Z-THU 00Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE CONVECTION CROSSES THE AREA.

LOOKING BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DIVING SE INTO THE AREA MAY BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH STRONG/BLUSTERY NWLY WINDS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BLS
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 281841
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE APT TO REDEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH
LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FURTHER INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW. MID-HIGH
CLOUDS WILL OTHERWISE STEADILY INCREASE FROM THE WEST ESPECIALLY
LATE...WITH MILDER LOWS AMIDST A STEADY 5KT SWLY WIND. LOWS
IN THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED NARROW BAND OF LOW-TOP CONVECTION THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...~18Z IN THE TRIAD...-21Z THROUGH THE
TRIANGLE...EXITING COASTAL PLAIN/I-95 CORRIDOR ~00Z THU.
WHILE FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT HEATING
FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY
LOW SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND WILL
PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH A CLAP OR TWO OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE. COMMENCEMENT OF STRONG CAA ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
DURING THE LATTER/SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...COINCIDENT WITH TYPICAL
PEAK HEATING...WILL MAKE FOR A LARGER THAN NORMAL NW-SE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 60S
NW TO UPPER 70S SE.

POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE AND CAA WILL LEAD TO WEST-EAST CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. LOWS 45 TO 55.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM TUESDAY...

TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY... BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY ON
SATURDAY... BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON. UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW... AND LIMITED ANTECEDENT MOISTURE... POINT TO A DRY
PASSAGE. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AS A 1032 MB HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SATURDAY TO THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY... BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FROST LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING... WITH A PROBABLE FREEZE ACROSS
TEH PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE ON MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST... AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR OCTOBER 28TH:

        MAX         HI-MIN

RDU     86/1919     69/1984
GSO     86/1919     64/1919
FAY     87/1919     65/2010


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SWLY WINDS TO OCCASIONALLY GUST INTO
THE UPPER TEENS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE APT TO REDEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH
LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBABILITIES
SHOWING BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST/COASTAL PLAIN...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FURTHER INCREASES IN THE STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW IN ADVANCE
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED NARROW BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN WED 18Z-THU 00Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE CONVECTION CROSSES THE AREA.

LOOKING BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DIVING SE INTO THE AREA MAY BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH STRONG/BLUSTERY NWLY WINDS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...SEC
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 281741
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM TUESDAY...

OVERVIEW: DEEP LAYER RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL DRIFT EAST
TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SEWD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY.

TODAY: LINGERING DRY AIR RIDGE IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
OVERWHELMED BY STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW WHICH IS ALREADY
UNDERWAY...EVIDENT BY THE BANK OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND EASTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT. RAP
SOUNDINGS AND HRR GUIDANCE OVERCAST INDICATE THE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT/DISPERSE (NOT UNTIL BETWEEN 15-17Z) OWING TO A STRONG
SURFACE-BASED INVERSION FROM LAST NIGHTS STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE SLOW TO WARM IN THE AREAS
WHERE THE FOG/STRATUS LINGER LONGEST...MAKING FOR A HODGEPODGE OF
TEMPERATURES THROUGH NOON. HOWEVER FROM 18Z ONWARD...ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MAKE A LATE SURGE...BUT LIKELY
A LITTLE TOO LATE TO MAKE A RUN AT RECORD HIGHS AT FAY AND RDU.
HIGHS 79 TO 84.

TONIGHT: AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE APT TO REDEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH
LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FURTHER INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW. MID-HIGH
CLOUDS WILL OTHERWISE STEADILY INCREASE FROM THE WEST ESPECIALLY
LATE...WITH MILDER LOWS AMIDST SSW STIRRING IN THE 55-60 DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...

HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL STEADILY FALL OVER CENTRAL NC...ON THE ORDER OF
ABOUT 50 METERS/12 HR THROUGH THE DAY WED...DOWNSTREAM OF A TROUGH
ALOFT THAT SPANS BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE
CENTRAL US THIS MORNING. WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NC EARLY WED...THE NORTHERN ONE...AND PRECEDING
DIVERGENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION...WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT
ATOP THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION...ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
THAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A BROKEN BAND OR TWO OF SHOWERS. DESPITE
THE COUPLED FORCING...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
WILL OTHERWISE HINDER BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH AN AXIS OF RELATIVELY RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 60S DURING FROPA
NEAR OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING OVER THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN
PIEDMONT...MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON
HOURS THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODULATED BY BOTH MULTI-
LAYERED...MOSTLY CLOUDINESS...AND CAA BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS ON AVERAGE IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S. CLEARING AND COOLER AS THE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES EAST AND POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE AND CAA SPREAD EAST INTO
NC. LOWS 45 TO 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM TUESDAY...

TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY... BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY ON
SATURDAY... BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON. UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW... AND LIMITED ANTECEDENT MOISTURE... POINT TO A DRY
PASSAGE. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AS A 1032 MB HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SATURDAY TO THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY... BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FROST LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING... WITH A PROBABLE FREEZE ACROSS
TEH PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE ON MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST... AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR OCTOBER 28TH:

        MAX         HI-MIN

RDU     86/1919     69/1984
GSO     86/1919     64/1919
FAY     87/1919     65/2010


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SWLY WINDS TO OCCASIONALLY GUST INTO
THE UPPER TEENS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE APT TO REDEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH
LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBABILITIES
SHOWING BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST/COASTAL PLAIN...AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FURTHER INCREASES IN THE STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW IN ADVANCE
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED NARROW BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN WED 18Z-THU 00Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE CONVECTION CROSSES THE AREA.

LOOKING BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DIVING SE INTO THE AREA MAY BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH STRONG/BLUSTERY NWLY WINDS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...SEC
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 281335
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
935 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM TUESDAY...

OVERVIEW: DEEP LAYER RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL DRIFT EAST
TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SEWD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY.

TODAY: LINGERING DRY AIR RIDGE IN PLACE THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
OVERWHELMED BY STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW WHICH IS ALREADY
UNDERWAY...EVIDENT BY THE BANK OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND EASTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT. RAP
SOUNDINGS AND HRR GUIDANCE OVERCAST INDICATE THE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT/DISPERSE (NOT UNTIL BETWEEN 15-17Z) OWING TO A STRONG
SURFACE-BASED INVERSION FROM LAST NIGHTS STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE SLOW TO WARM IN THE AREAS
WHERE THE FOG/STRATUS LINGER LONGEST...MAKING FOR A HODGEPODGE OF
TEMPERATURES THROUGH NOON. HOWEVER FROM 18Z ONWARD...ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MAKE A LATE SURGE...BUT LIKELY
A LITTLE TOO LATE TO MAKE A RUN AT RECORD HIGHS AT FAY AND RDU.
HIGHS 79 TO 84.

TONIGHT: AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE APT TO REDEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH
LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FURTHER INCREASES IN STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW. MID-HIGH
CLOUDS WILL OTHERWISE STEADILY INCREASE FROM THE WEST ESPECIALLY
LATE...WITH MILDER LOWS AMIDST SSW STIRRING IN THE 55-60 DEGREE
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...

HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL STEADILY FALL OVER CENTRAL NC...ON THE ORDER OF
ABOUT 50 METERS/12 HR THROUGH THE DAY WED...DOWNSTREAM OF A TROUGH
ALOFT THAT SPANS BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE
CENTRAL US THIS MORNING. WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NC EARLY WED...THE NORTHERN ONE...AND PRECEDING
DIVERGENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION...WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT
ATOP THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION...ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
THAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A BROKEN BAND OR TWO OF SHOWERS. DESPITE
THE COUPLED FORCING...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
WILL OTHERWISE HINDER BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH AN AXIS OF RELATIVELY RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 60S DURING FROPA
NEAR OR JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING OVER THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN
PIEDMONT...MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON
HOURS THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODULATED BY BOTH MULTI-
LAYERED...MOSTLY CLOUDINESS...AND CAA BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS ON AVERAGE IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S. CLEARING AND COOLER AS THE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES EAST AND POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE AND CAA SPREAD EAST INTO
NC. LOWS 45 TO 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM TUESDAY...

TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY... BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY ON
SATURDAY... BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON. UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW... AND LIMITED ANTECEDENT MOISTURE... POINT TO A DRY
PASSAGE. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AS A 1032 MB HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SATURDAY TO THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY... BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FROST LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING... WITH A PROBABLE FREEZE ACROSS
TEH PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE ON MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST... AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR OCTOBER 28TH:

        MAX         HI-MIN

RDU     86/1919     69/1984
GSO     86/1919     64/1919
FAY     87/1919     65/2010


&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 710 AM TUESDAY...

STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD AND LIKELY
ENVELOP KRDU AND KRWI DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN LIKELY
BE SLOW TO LIFT/DISPERSE (NOT UNTIL BETWEEN 15-17Z) OWING TO A
STRONG SURFACE-BASED INVERSION FROM THE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
THAT HAS OCCURRED SINCE SUNSET MON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING INTO
THE 6-12 KT RANGE...STRONGEST AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE UPPER
TEENS KTS AT WESTERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING SSW FLOW...AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WED...PRIMARILY AT EASTERN TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK: THE COLD FRONT...AND ACCOMPANYING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT EASTERN TERMINALS - AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS - WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC WED...INTO WED EVENING
AT EASTERN SITES.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...SEC
CLIMATE...CBL
AVIATION...MWS





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