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000
FXUS62 KRAH 310028 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
828 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND MODIFY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNS TO THE REGION. A MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND AN ASSOCIATED COASTAL FRONT
MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

SHOWERS STARTING TO BREAK OUT MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR
HIGHLIGHTED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY BY A MORE ENHANCED
CUMULUS FIELD. THIS WAS CAPTURED WELL ON HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE LATEST RUN OF THE HI-RES WRF NMM. THIS
SOLUTIONS CONTINUES SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT DOES NOT ENHANCE
ACTIVITY MUCH. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...AS ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
APPEARS VERY SHALLOW AT THIS TIME...SPC SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE OVER CENTRAL NC AND A SMALL AREA OF 25-
30 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE KFAY AREA. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST AND WILL LIKELY TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S NW TO LOW TO MID 80S IN THE EXTREME SOUTH.
EXPECT TO HAVE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A LINGERING SHOWER RUN INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT FOG/LOW STRATUS BUT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BOTH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KRDU...KFAY...AND KRWI JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE DEGREES FROM LAST NIGHTS LOWS...MAINLY LOW
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
ON THURSDAY. AT THE LOW LEVELS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO RETURN
TO THE AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA VIA RETURN
FLOW. THIS PROCESS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO GET GOING HOWEVER AND MOST
OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. AFTER 18Z...THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL INCREASE
WITH MOST MODEL SIMULATIONS PRODUCING QPF BY 00Z FRIDAY AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEGIN TO CLIMB TOWARDS TWO INCHES.
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALTHOUGH ABOUT 40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DO COMMENCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT IN THE FORM OF A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WITH INCREASE CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAX TEMPS MAY BE HIGHEST
IN THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
ONLY LOWER 80S IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES AN EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH AND A WESTERN U.S. RIDGE WHICH WILL SUPPORT NEAR OR
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NEAR OR GREATER THAN NORMAL
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.

THE BROAD EASTERN U.S. TROUGH SHARPENS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND A STRENGTHENING INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT
DEVELOPS. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL PROMOTE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT WILL LINGER BUT BECOME MORE SCATTERED
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE INVERTED
TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND DEEP MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND OR JUST OVER 2 INCHES
WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY DURING THE WEEKEND.
THE AXIS OF GREATEST MOISTURE EXTENDING SOUTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. NWP GUIDANCE ADVERTISE MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES IN THE
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT THE
TIMING AND LOCATION AT THIS POINT. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS
FOR SATURDAY AND VERY HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND  EVENING HOURS.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL
BREAK OFF AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AND OFFSHORE
TUESDAY WHILE A PORTION OF THE TOUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND MORE TYPICAL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO HE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
BRING A COLD FRONT WITH IT THAT COULD ONCE AGAIN ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE MID WEEK.

HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AN THEN MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BY MID WEEK. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR
70 FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
SUB-VFR FOG NEAR SUNRISE THU MORNING (09-12Z THU) AT THE FAY/RWI
TERMINALS...AND ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION THAT COULD AFFECT ANY TERMINAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT 4-7 KNOTS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL FRONT
RETROGRADES INLAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 310028 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
828 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND MODIFY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNS TO THE REGION. A MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND AN ASSOCIATED COASTAL FRONT
MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

SHOWERS STARTING TO BREAK OUT MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR
HIGHLIGHTED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY BY A MORE ENHANCED
CUMULUS FIELD. THIS WAS CAPTURED WELL ON HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE LATEST RUN OF THE HI-RES WRF NMM. THIS
SOLUTIONS CONTINUES SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT DOES NOT ENHANCE
ACTIVITY MUCH. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...AS ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
APPEARS VERY SHALLOW AT THIS TIME...SPC SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE OVER CENTRAL NC AND A SMALL AREA OF 25-
30 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE KFAY AREA. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST AND WILL LIKELY TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S NW TO LOW TO MID 80S IN THE EXTREME SOUTH.
EXPECT TO HAVE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A LINGERING SHOWER RUN INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT FOG/LOW STRATUS BUT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BOTH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KRDU...KFAY...AND KRWI JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE DEGREES FROM LAST NIGHTS LOWS...MAINLY LOW
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
ON THURSDAY. AT THE LOW LEVELS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO RETURN
TO THE AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA VIA RETURN
FLOW. THIS PROCESS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO GET GOING HOWEVER AND MOST
OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. AFTER 18Z...THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL INCREASE
WITH MOST MODEL SIMULATIONS PRODUCING QPF BY 00Z FRIDAY AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEGIN TO CLIMB TOWARDS TWO INCHES.
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALTHOUGH ABOUT 40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DO COMMENCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT IN THE FORM OF A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WITH INCREASE CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAX TEMPS MAY BE HIGHEST
IN THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
ONLY LOWER 80S IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES AN EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH AND A WESTERN U.S. RIDGE WHICH WILL SUPPORT NEAR OR
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NEAR OR GREATER THAN NORMAL
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.

THE BROAD EASTERN U.S. TROUGH SHARPENS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND A STRENGTHENING INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT
DEVELOPS. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL PROMOTE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT WILL LINGER BUT BECOME MORE SCATTERED
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE INVERTED
TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND DEEP MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND OR JUST OVER 2 INCHES
WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY DURING THE WEEKEND.
THE AXIS OF GREATEST MOISTURE EXTENDING SOUTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. NWP GUIDANCE ADVERTISE MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES IN THE
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT THE
TIMING AND LOCATION AT THIS POINT. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS
FOR SATURDAY AND VERY HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND  EVENING HOURS.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL
BREAK OFF AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AND OFFSHORE
TUESDAY WHILE A PORTION OF THE TOUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND MORE TYPICAL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO HE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
BRING A COLD FRONT WITH IT THAT COULD ONCE AGAIN ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE MID WEEK.

HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AN THEN MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BY MID WEEK. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR
70 FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
SUB-VFR FOG NEAR SUNRISE THU MORNING (09-12Z THU) AT THE FAY/RWI
TERMINALS...AND ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION THAT COULD AFFECT ANY TERMINAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT 4-7 KNOTS IN MOST LOCATIONS.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL FRONT
RETROGRADES INLAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301920 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND RETROGRADING COASTAL FRONT CAUSES PRECIPITATION TO BECOME
MORE LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

SHOWERS STARTING TO BREAK OUT MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR
HIGHLIGHTED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY BY A MORE ENHANCED
CUMULUS FIELD. THIS WAS CAPTURED WELL ON HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE LATEST RUN OF THE HI-RES WRF NMM. THIS
SOLUTIONS CONTINUES SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT DOES NOT ENHANCE
ACTIVITY MUCH. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...AS ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
APPEARS VERY SHALLOW AT THIS TIME...SPC SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE OVER CENTRAL NC AND A SMALL AREA OF 25-
30 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE KFAY AREA. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST AND WILL LIKELY TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S NW TO LOW TO MID 80S IN THE EXTREME SOUTH.
EXPECT TO HAVE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A LINGERING SHOWER RUN INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT FOG/LOW STRATUS BUT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BOTH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KRDU...KFAY...AND KRWI JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE DEGREES FROM LAST NIGHTS LOWS...MAINLY LOW
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
ON THURSDAY. AT THE LOW LEVELS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO RETURN
TO THE AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA VIA RETURN
FLOW. THIS PROCESS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO GET GOING HOWEVER AND MOST
OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. AFTER 18Z...THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL INCREASE
WITH MOST MODEL SIMULATIONS PRODUCING QPF BY 00Z FRIDAY AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEGIN TO CLIMB TOWARDS TWO INCHES.
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALTHOUGH ABOUT 40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DO COMMENCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT IN THE FORM OF A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WITH INCREASE CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAX TEMPS MAY BE HIGHEST
IN THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
ONLY LOWER 80S IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 60S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES AN EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH AND A WESTERN U.S. RIDGE WHICH WILL SUPPORT NEAR OR
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NEAR OR GREATER THAN NORMAL
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.

THE BROAD EASTERN U.S. TROUGH SHARPENS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND A STRENGTHENING INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT
DEVELOPS. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL PROMOTE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT WILL LINGER BUT BECOME MORE SCATTERED
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE INVERTED
TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND DEEP MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND OR JUST OVER 2 INCHES
WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY DURING THE WEEKEND.
THE AXIS OF GREATEST MOISTURE EXTENDING SOUTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. NWP GUIDANCE ADVERTISE MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES IN THE
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT THE
TIMING AND LOCATION AT THIS POINT. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS
FOR SATURDAY AND VERY HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND  EVENING HOURS.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL
BREAK OFF AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AND OFFSHORE
TUESDAY WHILE A PORTION OF THE TOUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND MORE TYPICAL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO HE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
BRING A COLD FRONT WITH IT THAT COULD ONCE AGAIN ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE MID WEEK.

HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AN THEN MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BY MID WEEK. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR
70 FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
-BLAES &&
&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER AT THE 3-7 KFT
RANGE MAY LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE VARIABLE WINDS AT LESS THAN 5KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME
SUB VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...PRIMARILY AT CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SITES BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT LARGELY AFTER THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE BROKEN CEILINGS AT 5 KFT SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z WITH WINDS LESS THAN 5 KTS GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH.

LONG TERM: CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
COASTAL TROUGH RETROGRADES WESTWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 301920 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND RETROGRADING COASTAL FRONT CAUSES PRECIPITATION TO BECOME
MORE LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

SHOWERS STARTING TO BREAK OUT MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR
HIGHLIGHTED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY BY A MORE ENHANCED
CUMULUS FIELD. THIS WAS CAPTURED WELL ON HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE LATEST RUN OF THE HI-RES WRF NMM. THIS
SOLUTIONS CONTINUES SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT DOES NOT ENHANCE
ACTIVITY MUCH. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...AS ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
APPEARS VERY SHALLOW AT THIS TIME...SPC SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE OVER CENTRAL NC AND A SMALL AREA OF 25-
30 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE KFAY AREA. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST AND WILL LIKELY TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S NW TO LOW TO MID 80S IN THE EXTREME SOUTH.
EXPECT TO HAVE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A LINGERING SHOWER RUN INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT FOG/LOW STRATUS BUT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BOTH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KRDU...KFAY...AND KRWI JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE DEGREES FROM LAST NIGHTS LOWS...MAINLY LOW
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
ON THURSDAY. AT THE LOW LEVELS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO RETURN
TO THE AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA VIA RETURN
FLOW. THIS PROCESS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO GET GOING HOWEVER AND MOST
OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. AFTER 18Z...THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL INCREASE
WITH MOST MODEL SIMULATIONS PRODUCING QPF BY 00Z FRIDAY AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEGIN TO CLIMB TOWARDS TWO INCHES.
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALTHOUGH ABOUT 40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DO COMMENCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT IN THE FORM OF A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WITH INCREASE CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAX TEMPS MAY BE HIGHEST
IN THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
ONLY LOWER 80S IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 60S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES AN EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH AND A WESTERN U.S. RIDGE WHICH WILL SUPPORT NEAR OR
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NEAR OR GREATER THAN NORMAL
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.

THE BROAD EASTERN U.S. TROUGH SHARPENS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND A STRENGTHENING INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT
DEVELOPS. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL PROMOTE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT WILL LINGER BUT BECOME MORE SCATTERED
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE INVERTED
TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND DEEP MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND OR JUST OVER 2 INCHES
WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY DURING THE WEEKEND.
THE AXIS OF GREATEST MOISTURE EXTENDING SOUTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. NWP GUIDANCE ADVERTISE MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES IN THE
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT THE
TIMING AND LOCATION AT THIS POINT. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS
FOR SATURDAY AND VERY HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND  EVENING HOURS.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL
BREAK OFF AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AND OFFSHORE
TUESDAY WHILE A PORTION OF THE TOUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND MORE TYPICAL CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO HE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
BRING A COLD FRONT WITH IT THAT COULD ONCE AGAIN ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE MID WEEK.

HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AN THEN MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BY MID WEEK. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR
70 FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
-BLAES &&
&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER AT THE 3-7 KFT
RANGE MAY LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE VARIABLE WINDS AT LESS THAN 5KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME
SUB VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...PRIMARILY AT CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SITES BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT LARGELY AFTER THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE BROKEN CEILINGS AT 5 KFT SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z WITH WINDS LESS THAN 5 KTS GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH.

LONG TERM: CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
COASTAL TROUGH RETROGRADES WESTWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301846 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
246 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND RETROGRADING COASTAL FRONT CAUSES PRECIPITATION TO BECOME
MORE LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

SHOWERS STARTING TO BREAK OUT MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR
HIGHLIGHTED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY BY A MORE ENHANCED
CUMULUS FIELD. THIS WAS CAPTURED WELL ON HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE LATEST RUN OF THE HI-RES WRF NMM. THIS
SOLUTIONS CONTINUES SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT DOES NOT ENHANCE
ACTIVITY MUCH. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...AS ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
APPEARS VERY SHALLOW AT THIS TIME...SPC SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE OVER CENTRAL NC AND A SMALL AREA OF 25-
30 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE KFAY AREA. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST AND WILL LIKELY TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S NW TO LOW TO MID 80S IN THE EXTREME SOUTH.
EXPECT TO HAVE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A LINGERING SHOWER RUN INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT FOG/LOW STRATUS BUT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BOTH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KRDU...KFAY...AND KRWI JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE DEGREES FROM LAST NIGHTS LOWS...MAINLY LOW
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
ON THURSDAY. AT THE LOW LEVELS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO RETURN
TO THE AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA VIA RETURN
FLOW. THIS PROCESS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO GET GOING HOWEVER AND MOST
OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. AFTER 18Z...THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL INCREASE
WITH MOST MODEL SIMULATIONS PRODUCING QPF BY 00Z FRIDAY AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEGIN TO CLIMB TOWARDS TWO INCHES.
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALTHOUGH ABOUT 40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DO COMMENCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT IN THE FORM OF A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WITH INCREASE CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAX TEMPS MAY BE HIGHEST
IN THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
ONLY LOWER 80S IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 60S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE LONG
TERM...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS OF WHERE/WHEN THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL OCCUR ARE STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE HIGHLY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE LINGERING
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND
LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE WASHING OUT
NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION... MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH NOW TO OUR WEST. BESIDES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING FROM THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LINGERING
INVERTED TROUGH...ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
PASSING DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WHICH ARE HARD TO PINPOINT WITH ANY
CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...ONE LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN ANOTHER ONE IS PROGGED TO
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...SO WILL SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
(RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE LONG TERM) DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S (WARMEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK)...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER AT THE 3-7 KFT
RANGE MAY LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE VARIABLE WINDS AT LESS THAN 5KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME
SUB VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...PRIMARILY AT CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SITES BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT LARGELY AFTER THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE BROKEN CEILINGS AT 5 KFT SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z WITH WINDS LESS THAN 5 KTS GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH.

LONG TERM: CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
COASTAL TROUGH RETROGRADES WESTWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301846 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
246 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND RETROGRADING COASTAL FRONT CAUSES PRECIPITATION TO BECOME
MORE LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

SHOWERS STARTING TO BREAK OUT MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR
HIGHLIGHTED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY BY A MORE ENHANCED
CUMULUS FIELD. THIS WAS CAPTURED WELL ON HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE LATEST RUN OF THE HI-RES WRF NMM. THIS
SOLUTIONS CONTINUES SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT DOES NOT ENHANCE
ACTIVITY MUCH. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
INTRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...AS ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
APPEARS VERY SHALLOW AT THIS TIME...SPC SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
500 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE OVER CENTRAL NC AND A SMALL AREA OF 25-
30 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE KFAY AREA. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST AND WILL LIKELY TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S NW TO LOW TO MID 80S IN THE EXTREME SOUTH.
EXPECT TO HAVE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A LINGERING SHOWER RUN INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT FOG/LOW STRATUS BUT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BOTH WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KRDU...KFAY...AND KRWI JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE DEGREES FROM LAST NIGHTS LOWS...MAINLY LOW
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW TO SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
ON THURSDAY. AT THE LOW LEVELS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO RETURN
TO THE AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA VIA RETURN
FLOW. THIS PROCESS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO GET GOING HOWEVER AND MOST
OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. AFTER 18Z...THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL INCREASE
WITH MOST MODEL SIMULATIONS PRODUCING QPF BY 00Z FRIDAY AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEGIN TO CLIMB TOWARDS TWO INCHES.
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALTHOUGH ABOUT 40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DO COMMENCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT IN THE FORM OF A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WITH INCREASE CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MAX TEMPS MAY BE HIGHEST
IN THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
ONLY LOWER 80S IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 60S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE LONG
TERM...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS OF WHERE/WHEN THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL OCCUR ARE STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE HIGHLY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE LINGERING
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND
LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE WASHING OUT
NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION... MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH NOW TO OUR WEST. BESIDES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING FROM THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LINGERING
INVERTED TROUGH...ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
PASSING DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WHICH ARE HARD TO PINPOINT WITH ANY
CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...ONE LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN ANOTHER ONE IS PROGGED TO
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...SO WILL SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
(RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE LONG TERM) DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S (WARMEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK)...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER AT THE 3-7 KFT
RANGE MAY LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE VARIABLE WINDS AT LESS THAN 5KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME
SUB VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...PRIMARILY AT CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SITES BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT LARGELY AFTER THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE BROKEN CEILINGS AT 5 KFT SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z WITH WINDS LESS THAN 5 KTS GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH.

LONG TERM: CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
COASTAL TROUGH RETROGRADES WESTWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 301741 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND RETROGRADING COASTAL FRONT CAUSES PRECIPITATION TO BECOME
MORE LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...

LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT IS NOW CONFINED
TO HALIFAX COUNTY AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY AS SHALLOW
MOISTURE BETWEEN 850 AND 750 MB WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY ACCORDING TO
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS LAYER DOES RE-APPEAR THIS AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THEREFORE SOME WEAK SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLY WITH AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS IN THE 5-8 KFT RANGE. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
PARKED IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH...SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. THICKNESS VALUES SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY SUGGEST SIMILAR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE HIGHLY AMPLITUDE
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY MORNING TO RETROGRADE TO THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. STALLED COASTAL TROUGH/FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL FOLLOW SUITE...WITH SELY MOISTURE RETURN FLOW LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP
DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT/PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL
TROUGH MOVES INLAND. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY 82-87. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE LONG
TERM...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS OF WHERE/WHEN THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL OCCUR ARE STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE HIGHLY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE LINGERING
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND
LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE WASHING OUT
NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION... MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH NOW TO OUR WEST. BESIDES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING FROM THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LINGERING
INVERTED TROUGH...ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
PASSING DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WHICH ARE HARD TO PINPOINT WITH ANY
CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...ONE LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN ANOTHER ONE IS PROGGED TO
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...SO WILL SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
(RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE LONG TERM) DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S (WARMEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK)...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER AT THE 3-7 KFT
RANGE MAY LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE VARIABLE WINDS AT LESS THAN 5KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME
SUB VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...PRIMARILY AT CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SITES BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT LARGELY AFTER THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE BROKEN CEILINGS AT 5 KFT SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z WITH WINDS LESS THAN 5 KTS GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH.

LONG TERM: CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
COASTAL TROUGH RETROGRADES WESTWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 301741 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND RETROGRADING COASTAL FRONT CAUSES PRECIPITATION TO BECOME
MORE LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...

LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT IS NOW CONFINED
TO HALIFAX COUNTY AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY AS SHALLOW
MOISTURE BETWEEN 850 AND 750 MB WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY ACCORDING TO
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS LAYER DOES RE-APPEAR THIS AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THEREFORE SOME WEAK SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLY WITH AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS IN THE 5-8 KFT RANGE. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
PARKED IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH...SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. THICKNESS VALUES SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY SUGGEST SIMILAR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE HIGHLY AMPLITUDE
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY MORNING TO RETROGRADE TO THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. STALLED COASTAL TROUGH/FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL FOLLOW SUITE...WITH SELY MOISTURE RETURN FLOW LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP
DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT/PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL
TROUGH MOVES INLAND. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY 82-87. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE LONG
TERM...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS OF WHERE/WHEN THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL OCCUR ARE STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE HIGHLY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE LINGERING
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND
LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE WASHING OUT
NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION... MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH NOW TO OUR WEST. BESIDES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING FROM THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LINGERING
INVERTED TROUGH...ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
PASSING DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WHICH ARE HARD TO PINPOINT WITH ANY
CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...ONE LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN ANOTHER ONE IS PROGGED TO
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...SO WILL SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
(RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE LONG TERM) DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S (WARMEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK)...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER AT THE 3-7 KFT
RANGE MAY LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE VARIABLE WINDS AT LESS THAN 5KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME
SUB VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...PRIMARILY AT CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SITES BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT LARGELY AFTER THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE BROKEN CEILINGS AT 5 KFT SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z WITH WINDS LESS THAN 5 KTS GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH.

LONG TERM: CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
COASTAL TROUGH RETROGRADES WESTWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301413 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1013 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND RETROGRADING COASTAL FRONT CAUSES PRECIPITATION TO BECOME
MORE LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...

LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT IS NOW CONFINED
TO HALIFAX COUNTY AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY AS SHALLOW
MOISTURE BETWEEN 850 AND 750 MB WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY ACCORDING TO
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS LAYER DOES RE-APPEAR THIS AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THEREFORE SOME WEAK SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLY WITH AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS IN THE 5-8 KFT RANGE. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
PARKED IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH...SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. THICKNESS VALUES SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY SUGGEST SIMILAR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE HIGHLY AMPLITUDE
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY MORNING TO RETROGRADE TO THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. STALLED COASTAL TROUGH/FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL FOLLOW SUITE...WITH SELY MOISTURE RETURN FLOW LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP
DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT/PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL
TROUGH MOVES INLAND. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY 82-87. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE LONG
TERM...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS OF WHERE/WHEN THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL OCCUR ARE STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE HIGHLY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE LINGERING
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND
LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE WASHING OUT
NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION... MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH NOW TO OUR WEST. BESIDES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING FROM THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LINGERING
INVERTED TROUGH...ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
PASSING DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WHICH ARE HARD TO PINPOINT WITH ANY
CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...ONE LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN ANOTHER ONE IS PROGGED TO
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...SO WILL SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
(RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE LONG TERM) DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S (WARMEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK)...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR
IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL FRONT
RETROGRADES INLAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...IN ADVANCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL/VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 301413
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1013 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND RETROGRADING COASTAL FRONT CAUSES PRECIPITATION TO BECOME
MORE LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...

LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT IS NOW CONFINED
TO HALIFAX COUNTY AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY AS SHALLOW
MOISTURE BETWEEN 850 AND 750 MB WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY ACCORDING TO
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS LAYER DOES RE-APPEAR THIS AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THEREFORE SOME WEAK SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLY WITH AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS IN THE 5-8 KFT RANGE. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
PARKED IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH...SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. THICKNESS VALUES SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY SUGGEST SIMILAR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE HIGHLY AMPLITUDE
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY MORNING TO RETROGRADE TO THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. STALLED COASTAL TROUGH/FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL FOLLOW SUITE...WITH SELY MOISTURE RETURN FLOW LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP
DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT/PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL
TROUGH MOVES INLAND. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY 82-87. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE LONG
TERM...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS OF WHERE/WHEN THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL OCCUR ARE STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE HIGHLY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE LINGERING
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND
LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE WASHING OUT
NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION... MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH NOW TO OUR WEST. BESIDES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING FROM THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LINGERING
INVERTED TROUGH...ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
PASSING DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WHICH ARE HARD TO PINPOINT WITH ANY
CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...ONE LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN ANOTHER ONE IS PROGGED TO
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...SO WILL SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
(RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE LONG TERM) DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S (WARMEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK)...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR
IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL FRONT
RETROGRADES INLAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...IN ADVANCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301413
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1013 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND RETROGRADING COASTAL FRONT CAUSES PRECIPITATION TO BECOME
MORE LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...

LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT IS NOW CONFINED
TO HALIFAX COUNTY AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY AS SHALLOW
MOISTURE BETWEEN 850 AND 750 MB WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY ACCORDING TO
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS LAYER DOES RE-APPEAR THIS AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THEREFORE SOME WEAK SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLY WITH AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS IN THE 5-8 KFT RANGE. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
PARKED IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH...SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. THICKNESS VALUES SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY SUGGEST SIMILAR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE HIGHLY AMPLITUDE
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY MORNING TO RETROGRADE TO THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. STALLED COASTAL TROUGH/FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL FOLLOW SUITE...WITH SELY MOISTURE RETURN FLOW LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP
DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT/PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL
TROUGH MOVES INLAND. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY 82-87. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE LONG
TERM...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS OF WHERE/WHEN THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL OCCUR ARE STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE HIGHLY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE LINGERING
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND
LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE WASHING OUT
NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION... MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH NOW TO OUR WEST. BESIDES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING FROM THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LINGERING
INVERTED TROUGH...ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
PASSING DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WHICH ARE HARD TO PINPOINT WITH ANY
CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...ONE LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN ANOTHER ONE IS PROGGED TO
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...SO WILL SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
(RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE LONG TERM) DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S (WARMEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK)...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR
IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL FRONT
RETROGRADES INLAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...IN ADVANCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL/VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 301413 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1013 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND RETROGRADING COASTAL FRONT CAUSES PRECIPITATION TO BECOME
MORE LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...

LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT IS NOW CONFINED
TO HALIFAX COUNTY AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SHORTLY AS SHALLOW
MOISTURE BETWEEN 850 AND 750 MB WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY ACCORDING TO
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS LAYER DOES RE-APPEAR THIS AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...THEREFORE SOME WEAK SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLY WITH AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS IN THE 5-8 KFT RANGE. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
PARKED IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH...SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. THICKNESS VALUES SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY SUGGEST SIMILAR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE HIGHLY AMPLITUDE
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY MORNING TO RETROGRADE TO THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. STALLED COASTAL TROUGH/FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL FOLLOW SUITE...WITH SELY MOISTURE RETURN FLOW LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP
DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT/PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL
TROUGH MOVES INLAND. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY 82-87. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE LONG
TERM...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS OF WHERE/WHEN THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL OCCUR ARE STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE HIGHLY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE LINGERING
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND
LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE WASHING OUT
NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION... MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH NOW TO OUR WEST. BESIDES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING FROM THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LINGERING
INVERTED TROUGH...ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
PASSING DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WHICH ARE HARD TO PINPOINT WITH ANY
CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...ONE LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN ANOTHER ONE IS PROGGED TO
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...SO WILL SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
(RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE LONG TERM) DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S (WARMEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK)...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR
IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL FRONT
RETROGRADES INLAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...IN ADVANCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301118
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
720 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN ON THURSDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST... AND AN ATTENDANT COASTAL FRONT MOVES
INLAND INTO THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TODAY.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

GIVEN ALL THE DRY AIR DEPICTED IN BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND AREA
RAOBS...SURPRISED TO SEE THE SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/VA
BORDER PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THIS SHALLOW MID-LEVEL SATURATION WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WITH CONTINUED WEAK MID/UPPER FORCING VIA DCVA AND A ZONE
OF ENHANCED OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A 80-
85KT UPPER JETSTREAK ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WOULD EXPECT THIS WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS AGAIN IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE THE LOWER TO MID 60S. &&

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE HIGHLY AMPLITUDE
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY MORNING TO RETROGRADE TO THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. STALLED COASTAL TROUGH/FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL FOLLOW SUITE...WITH SELY MOISTURE RETURN FLOW LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP
DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT/PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL
TROUGH MOVES INLAND. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY 82-87. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE LONG
TERM...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS OF WHERE/WHEN THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL OCCUR ARE STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE HIGHLY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE LINGERING
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND
LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE WASHING OUT
NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION... MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH NOW TO OUR WEST. BESIDES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING FROM THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LINGERING
INVERTED TROUGH...ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
PASSING DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WHICH ARE HARD TO PINPOINT WITH ANY
CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...ONE LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN ANOTHER ONE IS PROGGED TO
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...SO WILL SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
(RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE LONG TERM) DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S (WARMEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK)...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITHIN THE BROAD CYLCONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR
IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL FRONT
RETROGRADES INLAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...IN ADVANCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL/VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 301118
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
720 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN ON THURSDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST... AND AN ATTENDANT COASTAL FRONT MOVES
INLAND INTO THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TODAY.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

GIVEN ALL THE DRY AIR DEPICTED IN BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND AREA
RAOBS...SURPRISED TO SEE THE SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/VA
BORDER PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THIS SHALLOW MID-LEVEL SATURATION WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WITH CONTINUED WEAK MID/UPPER FORCING VIA DCVA AND A ZONE
OF ENHANCED OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A 80-
85KT UPPER JETSTREAK ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WOULD EXPECT THIS WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS AGAIN IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE THE LOWER TO MID 60S. &&

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE HIGHLY AMPLITUDE
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY MORNING TO RETROGRADE TO THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. STALLED COASTAL TROUGH/FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL FOLLOW SUITE...WITH SELY MOISTURE RETURN FLOW LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP
DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT/PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL
TROUGH MOVES INLAND. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY 82-87. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE LONG
TERM...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS OF WHERE/WHEN THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL OCCUR ARE STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE HIGHLY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE LINGERING
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND
LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE WASHING OUT
NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION... MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH NOW TO OUR WEST. BESIDES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING FROM THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LINGERING
INVERTED TROUGH...ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
PASSING DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WHICH ARE HARD TO PINPOINT WITH ANY
CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...ONE LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN ANOTHER ONE IS PROGGED TO
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...SO WILL SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
(RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE LONG TERM) DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S (WARMEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK)...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITHIN THE BROAD CYLCONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR
IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL FRONT
RETROGRADES INLAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...IN ADVANCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 300651
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN ON THURSDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST... AND AN ATTENDANT COASTAL FRONT MOVES
INLAND INTO THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TODAY.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

GIVEN ALL THE DRY AIR DEPICTED IN BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND AREA
RAOBS...SURPRISED TO SEE THE SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/VA
BORDER PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THIS SHALLOW MID-LEVEL SATURATION WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WITH CONTINUED WEAK MID/UPPER FORCING VIA DCVA AND A ZONE
OF ENHANCED OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A 80-
85KT UPPER JETSTREAK ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WOULD EXPECT THIS WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS AGAIN IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE THE LOWER TO MID 60S. &&

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE HIGHLY AMPLITUDE
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY MORNING TO RETROGRADE TO THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. STALLED COASTAL TROUGH/FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL FOLLOW SUITE...WITH SELY MOISTURE RETURN FLOW LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP
DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT/PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL
TROUGH MOVES INLAND. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY 82-87. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE LONG
TERM...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS OF WHERE/WHEN THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL OCCUR ARE STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE HIGHLY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE LINGERING
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND
LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE WASHING OUT
NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION... MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH NOW TO OUR WEST. BESIDES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING FROM THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LINGERING
INVERTED TROUGH...ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
PASSING DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WHICH ARE HARD TO PINPOINT WITH ANY
CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...ONE LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN ANOTHER ONE IS PROGGED TO
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...SO WILL SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
(RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE LONG TERM) DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S (WARMEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK)...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL SUPPORT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL FRONT
RETROGRADES INLAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...IN ADVANCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 300651
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN ON THURSDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST... AND AN ATTENDANT COASTAL FRONT MOVES
INLAND INTO THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TODAY.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

GIVEN ALL THE DRY AIR DEPICTED IN BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND AREA
RAOBS...SURPRISED TO SEE THE SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/VA
BORDER PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THIS SHALLOW MID-LEVEL SATURATION WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WITH CONTINUED WEAK MID/UPPER FORCING VIA DCVA AND A ZONE
OF ENHANCED OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A 80-
85KT UPPER JETSTREAK ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WOULD EXPECT THIS WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS AGAIN IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE THE LOWER TO MID 60S. &&

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE HIGHLY AMPLITUDE
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY MORNING TO RETROGRADE TO THE MS RIVER THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. STALLED COASTAL TROUGH/FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL FOLLOW SUITE...WITH SELY MOISTURE RETURN FLOW LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP
DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT/PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL
TROUGH MOVES INLAND. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY 82-87. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE LONG
TERM...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS OF WHERE/WHEN THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP WILL OCCUR ARE STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE HIGHLY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE LINGERING
FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND
LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE WASHING OUT
NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION... MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH NOW TO OUR WEST. BESIDES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING FROM THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LINGERING
INVERTED TROUGH...ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
PASSING DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WHICH ARE HARD TO PINPOINT WITH ANY
CERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...ONE LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN ANOTHER ONE IS PROGGED TO
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...SO WILL SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
(RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE LONG TERM) DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S (WARMEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK)...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL SUPPORT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL FRONT
RETROGRADES INLAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...IN ADVANCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL/VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 300508
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
108 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN ON THURSDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST... AND AN ATTENDANT COASTAL FRONT MOVES
INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 908 PM TUESDAY...

...NEAR RECORD LOWS TONIGHT...

THE SUNSET WAS ONLY 45 MINUTES AGO AND ALREADY THE TEMPERATURES WERE
REPORTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS OUR NE ZONES
INCLUDING: THE REPORTS FROM LOUISBURG... TARBORO... HALIFAX... AND
HENDERSON. THERE WERE SOME MID 70S REPORTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE DATA INDICATED SOME
PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 10K FEET. RAOB DATA AT
00Z/30 JULY FROM GREENSBORO INDICATED THE MID LEVEL INVERSION
CONTINUED TO EXIST NEAR H7 WHICH CONTINUED TO TRAP SOME MOISTURE AT
THAT LEVEL. TRENDS DO SUGGEST A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
PATCHY CLOUDINESS IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. THESE TRENDS ARE SUPPORTED IN
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH GENERALLY SUGGESTS MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND AND CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE (DEW POINTS 50-60 DEGREES)... WE WILL LOWER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

THIS WILL NOW YIELD LOWS OF LOWER 50S NORTH AND EAST (RURAL AREAS)
INTO THE LOWER 60S AROUND THE URBAN AREAS OF FAYETTEVILLE. CURRENT
PROJECTIONS INDICATE LOWS OF 59 AT RALEIGH... 58 AT GREENSBORO...
AND 61 AT FAYETTEVILLE. THESE FORECASTS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE (2-3
DEGREES) TO THE DAILY RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 30. THEY INCLUDE: RALEIGH
56 DEGREES SET IN 1946... GREENSBORO 56 DEGREES SET IN 1946... AND
FAYETTEVILLE 59 SET IN 1920.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR HIGHS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER IN THE 5-8 KFT RANGE
WILL HAVE THE HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION IN EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
WHICH MAY HELP KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM FORECASTED
HIGHS.DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH A BRIEF RELAXATION AND HEIGHT RISES
ALOFT BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND ENERGY
DIVING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES.  THICKNESSES RISE ABOUT 10M OVER
WEDNESDAY...STARTING OUT AT 1395M THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD 83-87 UNDER MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  DEWPOINTS STILL IN
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WILL LIMIT CAPE TO A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY HELP ENHANCE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE.  ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.  CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.  LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

THE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD IS ONE OF MIXED CONFIDENCE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...PLACING NC IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS. AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
MEANDER WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN LIKELY WASH OUT BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
BUILDS WESTWARD.  THIS WILL CAUSE PW TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO
UPWARDS OF TWO INCHES BY SUNDAY.  WHILE THIS POINTS TOWARD A WET
WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN IT COMES TO BEST TIME FRAME FOR
PRECIP.  ON FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A DISTURBANCE EMANATING FROM
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THAT SWEEPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN LIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION.  ITS HARD TO PUT MUCH FAITH
IN SUCH A FEATURE THREE DAYS OUT...BUT ALL MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN
INCREASE IN QPF FOR FRIDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE 40-50
RANGE.  HOWEVER...BEYOND FRIDAY THERE IS VERY LITTLE TO KEY ON FOR
FORCING OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED JET AND WEAKENING COASTAL
TROUGH.  THUS...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN EACH DAY BE KEEP THEM BELOW
50 PERCENT UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE APPARENT WHICH DAY WILL BE FAVORED.
 THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GIVEN LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND RELATIVELY COOL DAYTIME
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.  A WARMING TREND SHOULD ENDUE
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHEN
TO OUR EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL SUPPORT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL FRONT
RETROGRADES INLAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...IN ADVANCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...32
SHORT TERM...ELLIS/BLS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...CBL/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 300508
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
108 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN ON THURSDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST... AND AN ATTENDANT COASTAL FRONT MOVES
INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 908 PM TUESDAY...

...NEAR RECORD LOWS TONIGHT...

THE SUNSET WAS ONLY 45 MINUTES AGO AND ALREADY THE TEMPERATURES WERE
REPORTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS OUR NE ZONES
INCLUDING: THE REPORTS FROM LOUISBURG... TARBORO... HALIFAX... AND
HENDERSON. THERE WERE SOME MID 70S REPORTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE DATA INDICATED SOME
PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 10K FEET. RAOB DATA AT
00Z/30 JULY FROM GREENSBORO INDICATED THE MID LEVEL INVERSION
CONTINUED TO EXIST NEAR H7 WHICH CONTINUED TO TRAP SOME MOISTURE AT
THAT LEVEL. TRENDS DO SUGGEST A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
PATCHY CLOUDINESS IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. THESE TRENDS ARE SUPPORTED IN
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH GENERALLY SUGGESTS MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND AND CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE (DEW POINTS 50-60 DEGREES)... WE WILL LOWER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

THIS WILL NOW YIELD LOWS OF LOWER 50S NORTH AND EAST (RURAL AREAS)
INTO THE LOWER 60S AROUND THE URBAN AREAS OF FAYETTEVILLE. CURRENT
PROJECTIONS INDICATE LOWS OF 59 AT RALEIGH... 58 AT GREENSBORO...
AND 61 AT FAYETTEVILLE. THESE FORECASTS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE (2-3
DEGREES) TO THE DAILY RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 30. THEY INCLUDE: RALEIGH
56 DEGREES SET IN 1946... GREENSBORO 56 DEGREES SET IN 1946... AND
FAYETTEVILLE 59 SET IN 1920.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR HIGHS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER IN THE 5-8 KFT RANGE
WILL HAVE THE HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION IN EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
WHICH MAY HELP KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM FORECASTED
HIGHS.DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH A BRIEF RELAXATION AND HEIGHT RISES
ALOFT BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND ENERGY
DIVING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES.  THICKNESSES RISE ABOUT 10M OVER
WEDNESDAY...STARTING OUT AT 1395M THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD 83-87 UNDER MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  DEWPOINTS STILL IN
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WILL LIMIT CAPE TO A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY HELP ENHANCE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE.  ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.  CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.  LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

THE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD IS ONE OF MIXED CONFIDENCE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...PLACING NC IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS. AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
MEANDER WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN LIKELY WASH OUT BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
BUILDS WESTWARD.  THIS WILL CAUSE PW TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO
UPWARDS OF TWO INCHES BY SUNDAY.  WHILE THIS POINTS TOWARD A WET
WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN IT COMES TO BEST TIME FRAME FOR
PRECIP.  ON FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A DISTURBANCE EMANATING FROM
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THAT SWEEPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN LIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION.  ITS HARD TO PUT MUCH FAITH
IN SUCH A FEATURE THREE DAYS OUT...BUT ALL MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN
INCREASE IN QPF FOR FRIDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE 40-50
RANGE.  HOWEVER...BEYOND FRIDAY THERE IS VERY LITTLE TO KEY ON FOR
FORCING OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED JET AND WEAKENING COASTAL
TROUGH.  THUS...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN EACH DAY BE KEEP THEM BELOW
50 PERCENT UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE APPARENT WHICH DAY WILL BE FAVORED.
 THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GIVEN LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND RELATIVELY COOL DAYTIME
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.  A WARMING TREND SHOULD ENDUE
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHEN
TO OUR EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL SUPPORT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL FRONT
RETROGRADES INLAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...IN ADVANCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...32
SHORT TERM...ELLIS/BLS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...CBL/VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 300110
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
908 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST... AND AN ATTENDANT COASTAL FRONT MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 908 PM TUESDAY...

...NEAR RECORD LOWS TONIGHT...

THE SUNSET WAS ONLY 45 MINUTES AGO AND ALREADY THE TEMPERATURES WERE
REPORTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS OUR NE ZONES
INCLUDING: THE REPORTS FROM LOUISBURG... TARBORO... HALIFAX... AND
HENDERSON. THERE WERE SOME MID 70S REPORTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE DATA INDICATED SOME
PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 10K FEET. RAOB DATA AT
00Z/30 JULY FROM GREENSBORO INDICATED THE MID LEVEL INVERSION
CONTINUED TO EXIST NEAR H7 WHICH CONTINUED TO TRAP SOME MOISTURE AT
THAT LEVEL. TRENDS DO SUGGEST A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
PATCHY CLOUDINESS IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. THESE TRENDS ARE SUPPORTED IN
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH GENERALLY SUGGESTS MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND AND CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE (DEW POINTS 50-60 DEGREES)... WE WILL LOWER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

THIS WILL NOW YIELD LOWS OF LOWER 50S NORTH AND EAST (RURAL AREAS)
INTO THE LOWER 60S AROUND THE URBAN AREAS OF FAYETTEVILLE. CURRENT
PROJECTIONS INDICATE LOWS OF 59 AT RALEIGH... 58 AT GREENSBORO...
AND 61 AT FAYETTEVILLE. THESE FORECASTS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE (2-3
DEGREES) TO THE DAILY RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 30. THEY INCLUDE: RALEIGH
56 DEGREES SET IN 1946... GREENSBORO 56 DEGREES SET IN 1946... AND
FAYETTEVILLE 59 SET IN 1920.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR HIGHS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER IN THE 5-8 KFT RANGE
WILL HAVE THE HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION IN EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
WHICH MAY HELP KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM FORECASTED
HIGHS.DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH A BRIEF RELAXATION AND HEIGHT RISES
ALOFT BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND ENERGY
DIVING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES.  THICKNESSES RISE ABOUT 10M OVER
WEDNESDAY...STARTING OUT AT 1395M THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD 83-87 UNDER MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  DEWPOINTS STILL IN
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WILL LIMIT CAPE TO A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY HELP ENHANCE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE.  ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.  CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.  LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

THE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD IS ONE OF MIXED CONFIDENCE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...PLACING NC IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS. AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
MEANDER WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN LIKELY WASH OUT BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
BUILDS WESTWARD.  THIS WILL CAUSE PW TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO
UPWARDS OF TWO INCHES BY SUNDAY.  WHILE THIS POINTS TOWARD A WET
WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN IT COMES TO BEST TIME FRAME FOR
PRECIP.  ON FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A DISTURBANCE EMANATING FROM
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THAT SWEEPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN LIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION.  ITS HARD TO PUT MUCH FAITH
IN SUCH A FEATURE THREE DAYS OUT...BUT ALL MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN
INCREASE IN QPF FOR FRIDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE 40-50
RANGE.  HOWEVER...BEYOND FRIDAY THERE IS VERY LITTLE TO KEY ON FOR
FORCING OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED JET AND WEAKENING COASTAL
TROUGH.  THUS...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN EACH DAY BE KEEP THEM BELOW
50 PERCENT UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE APPARENT WHICH DAY WILL BE FAVORED.
 THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GIVEN LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND RELATIVELY COOL DAYTIME
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.  A WARMING TREND SHOULD ENDUE
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHEN
TO OUR EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM TUESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MID-DAY FRIDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE SLOWLY MODIFIES. EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL
FRONT RETROGRADES INLAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...32
SHORT TERM...ELLIS/BLS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 300110
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
908 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST... AND AN ATTENDANT COASTAL FRONT MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 908 PM TUESDAY...

...NEAR RECORD LOWS TONIGHT...

THE SUNSET WAS ONLY 45 MINUTES AGO AND ALREADY THE TEMPERATURES WERE
REPORTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS OUR NE ZONES
INCLUDING: THE REPORTS FROM LOUISBURG... TARBORO... HALIFAX... AND
HENDERSON. THERE WERE SOME MID 70S REPORTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE DATA INDICATED SOME
PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 10K FEET. RAOB DATA AT
00Z/30 JULY FROM GREENSBORO INDICATED THE MID LEVEL INVERSION
CONTINUED TO EXIST NEAR H7 WHICH CONTINUED TO TRAP SOME MOISTURE AT
THAT LEVEL. TRENDS DO SUGGEST A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
PATCHY CLOUDINESS IN THE PAST 3 HOURS. THESE TRENDS ARE SUPPORTED IN
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH GENERALLY SUGGESTS MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND AND CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE (DEW POINTS 50-60 DEGREES)... WE WILL LOWER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

THIS WILL NOW YIELD LOWS OF LOWER 50S NORTH AND EAST (RURAL AREAS)
INTO THE LOWER 60S AROUND THE URBAN AREAS OF FAYETTEVILLE. CURRENT
PROJECTIONS INDICATE LOWS OF 59 AT RALEIGH... 58 AT GREENSBORO...
AND 61 AT FAYETTEVILLE. THESE FORECASTS WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE (2-3
DEGREES) TO THE DAILY RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 30. THEY INCLUDE: RALEIGH
56 DEGREES SET IN 1946... GREENSBORO 56 DEGREES SET IN 1946... AND
FAYETTEVILLE 59 SET IN 1920.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR HIGHS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER IN THE 5-8 KFT RANGE
WILL HAVE THE HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION IN EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
WHICH MAY HELP KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM FORECASTED
HIGHS.DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH A BRIEF RELAXATION AND HEIGHT RISES
ALOFT BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND ENERGY
DIVING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES.  THICKNESSES RISE ABOUT 10M OVER
WEDNESDAY...STARTING OUT AT 1395M THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD 83-87 UNDER MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  DEWPOINTS STILL IN
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WILL LIMIT CAPE TO A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY HELP ENHANCE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE.  ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.  CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.  LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

THE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD IS ONE OF MIXED CONFIDENCE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...PLACING NC IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS. AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
MEANDER WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN LIKELY WASH OUT BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
BUILDS WESTWARD.  THIS WILL CAUSE PW TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO
UPWARDS OF TWO INCHES BY SUNDAY.  WHILE THIS POINTS TOWARD A WET
WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN IT COMES TO BEST TIME FRAME FOR
PRECIP.  ON FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A DISTURBANCE EMANATING FROM
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THAT SWEEPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN LIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION.  ITS HARD TO PUT MUCH FAITH
IN SUCH A FEATURE THREE DAYS OUT...BUT ALL MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN
INCREASE IN QPF FOR FRIDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE 40-50
RANGE.  HOWEVER...BEYOND FRIDAY THERE IS VERY LITTLE TO KEY ON FOR
FORCING OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED JET AND WEAKENING COASTAL
TROUGH.  THUS...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN EACH DAY BE KEEP THEM BELOW
50 PERCENT UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE APPARENT WHICH DAY WILL BE FAVORED.
 THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GIVEN LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND RELATIVELY COOL DAYTIME
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.  A WARMING TREND SHOULD ENDUE
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHEN
TO OUR EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM TUESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MID-DAY FRIDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE SLOWLY MODIFIES. EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL
FRONT RETROGRADES INLAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...32
SHORT TERM...ELLIS/BLS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 292347
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
747 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST AND AN ATTENDANT COASTAL FRONT MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS NOW EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN
AREAS OF THE CWA. THIS MAY KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM BREAKING
80 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
LOW TO MID 80S NORTH TO SOUTH. OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HINT AT
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES NEAR DAYBREAK IN THE EAST...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS APPEAR TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WOULD ALSO HELP TO LESSEN ANY FOG
THREAT.

WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR HIGHS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER IN THE 5-8 KFT RANGE
WILL HAVE THE HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION IN EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
WHICH MAY HELP KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM FORECASTED
HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH A BRIEF RELAXATION AND HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND ENERGY DIVING
THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES.  THICKNESSES RISE ABOUT 10M OVER
WEDNESDAY...STARTING OUT AT 1395M THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD 83-87 UNDER MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  DEWPOINTS STILL IN
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WILL LIMIT CAPE TO A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY HELP ENHANCE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE.  ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.  CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.  LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

THE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD IS ONE OF MIXED CONFIDENCE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...PLACING NC IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS. AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
MEANDER WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN LIKELY WASH OUT BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
BUILDS WESTWARD.  THIS WILL CAUSE PW TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO
UPWARDS OF TWO INCHES BY SUNDAY.  WHILE THIS POINTS TOWARD A WET
WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN IT COMES TO BEST TIME FRAME FOR
PRECIP.  ON FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A DISTURBANCE EMANATING FROM
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THAT SWEEPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN LIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION.  ITS HARD TO PUT MUCH FAITH
IN SUCH A FEATURE THREE DAYS OUT...BUT ALL MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN
INCREASE IN QPF FOR FRIDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE 40-50
RANGE.  HOWEVER...BEYOND FRIDAY THERE IS VERY LITTLE TO KEY ON FOR
FORCING OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED JET AND WEAKENING COASTAL
TROUGH.  THUS...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN EACH DAY BE KEEP THEM BELOW
50 PERCENT UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE APPARENT WHICH DAY WILL BE FAVORED.
 THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GIVEN LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND RELATIVELY COOL DAYTIME
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.  A WARMING TREND SHOULD ENDUE
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHEN
TO OUR EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM TUESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MID-DAY FRIDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE SLOWLY MODIFIES. EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL
FRONT RETROGRADES INLAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 292347
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
747 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST AND AN ATTENDANT COASTAL FRONT MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CAROLINAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS NOW EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN
AREAS OF THE CWA. THIS MAY KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM BREAKING
80 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
LOW TO MID 80S NORTH TO SOUTH. OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HINT AT
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES NEAR DAYBREAK IN THE EAST...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS APPEAR TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WOULD ALSO HELP TO LESSEN ANY FOG
THREAT.

WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR HIGHS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER IN THE 5-8 KFT RANGE
WILL HAVE THE HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION IN EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
WHICH MAY HELP KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM FORECASTED
HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH A BRIEF RELAXATION AND HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND ENERGY DIVING
THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES.  THICKNESSES RISE ABOUT 10M OVER
WEDNESDAY...STARTING OUT AT 1395M THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD 83-87 UNDER MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  DEWPOINTS STILL IN
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WILL LIMIT CAPE TO A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY HELP ENHANCE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE.  ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.  CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.  LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

THE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD IS ONE OF MIXED CONFIDENCE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...PLACING NC IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS. AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
MEANDER WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN LIKELY WASH OUT BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
BUILDS WESTWARD.  THIS WILL CAUSE PW TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO
UPWARDS OF TWO INCHES BY SUNDAY.  WHILE THIS POINTS TOWARD A WET
WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN IT COMES TO BEST TIME FRAME FOR
PRECIP.  ON FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A DISTURBANCE EMANATING FROM
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THAT SWEEPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN LIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION.  ITS HARD TO PUT MUCH FAITH
IN SUCH A FEATURE THREE DAYS OUT...BUT ALL MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN
INCREASE IN QPF FOR FRIDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE 40-50
RANGE.  HOWEVER...BEYOND FRIDAY THERE IS VERY LITTLE TO KEY ON FOR
FORCING OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED JET AND WEAKENING COASTAL
TROUGH.  THUS...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN EACH DAY BE KEEP THEM BELOW
50 PERCENT UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE APPARENT WHICH DAY WILL BE FAVORED.
 THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GIVEN LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND RELATIVELY COOL DAYTIME
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.  A WARMING TREND SHOULD ENDUE
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHEN
TO OUR EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM TUESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MID-DAY FRIDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE SLOWLY MODIFIES. EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS AND SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COASTAL
FRONT RETROGRADES INLAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 291914
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A COASTAL FRONT SPREADS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS NOW EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN
AREAS OF THE CWA. THIS MAY KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM BREAKING
80 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
LOW TO MID 80S NORTH TO SOUTH. OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HINT AT
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES NEAR DAYBREAK IN THE EAST...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS APPEAR TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WOULD ALSO HELP TO LESSEN ANY FOG
THREAT.

WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR HIGHS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER IN THE 5-8 KFT RANGE
WILL HAVE THE HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION IN EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
WHICH MAY HELP KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM FORECASTED
HIGHS.


.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH A BRIEF RELAXATION AND HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND ENERGY DIVING
THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES.  THICKNESSES RISE ABOUT 10M OVER
WEDNESDAY...STARTING OUT AT 1395M THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD 83-87 UNDER MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  DEWPOINTS STILL IN
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WILL LIMIT CAPE TO A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY HELP ENHANCE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE.  ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.  CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.  LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

THE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD IS ONE OF MIXED CONFIDENCE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...PLACING NC IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS. AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
MEANDER WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN LIKELY WASH OUT BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
BUILDS WESTWARD.  THIS WILL CAUSE PW TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO
UPWARDS OF TWO INCHES BY SUNDAY.  WHILE THIS POINTS TOWARD A WET
WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN IT COMES TO BEST TIME FRAME FOR
PRECIP.  ON FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A DISTURBANCE EMANATING FROM
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THAT SWEEPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN LIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION.  ITS HARD TO PUT MUCH FAITH
IN SUCH A FEATURE THREE DAYS OUT...BUT ALL MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN
INCREASE IN QPF FOR FRIDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE 40-50
RANGE.  HOWEVER...BEYOND FRIDAY THERE IS VERY LITTLE TO KEY ON FOR
FORCING OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED JET AND WEAKENING COASTAL
TROUGH.  THUS...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN EACH DAY BE KEEP THEM BELOW
50 PERCENT UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE APPARENT WHICH DAY WILL BE FAVORED.
 THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GIVEN LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND RELATIVELY COOL DAYTIME
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.  A WARMING TREND SHOULD ENDUE
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHEN
TO OUR EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THAT IS MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE
EAST CLOSER TO SUNRISE. A LOOK AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DOES NOT
MAKE THIS SEEM LIKELY AND SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW
BUT THIS IS A POSSIBILITY BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z AT KRDU...KFAY...AND
KRWI. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH A PREDOMINANTLY NORTH
OR NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN IN THE
SOUTH AND EAST AT THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: A FRONT THAT HAS STALLED OFFSHORE MAY RETROGRADE BACK
OVER EASTERN NC BY THE END OF THE WEEK...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 291914
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A COASTAL FRONT SPREADS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS NOW EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN
AREAS OF THE CWA. THIS MAY KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM BREAKING
80 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
LOW TO MID 80S NORTH TO SOUTH. OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HINT AT
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES NEAR DAYBREAK IN THE EAST...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS APPEAR TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WOULD ALSO HELP TO LESSEN ANY FOG
THREAT.

WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR HIGHS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER IN THE 5-8 KFT RANGE
WILL HAVE THE HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION IN EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
WHICH MAY HELP KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM FORECASTED
HIGHS.


.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

DEEP UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH A BRIEF RELAXATION AND HEIGHT RISES ALOFT
BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND ENERGY DIVING
THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES.  THICKNESSES RISE ABOUT 10M OVER
WEDNESDAY...STARTING OUT AT 1395M THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD
YIELD 83-87 UNDER MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  DEWPOINTS STILL IN
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WILL LIMIT CAPE TO A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OR
LESS...THOUGH A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY HELP ENHANCE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE.  ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.  CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.  LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

THE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD IS ONE OF MIXED CONFIDENCE.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...PLACING NC IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE MOUNTAINS. AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
MEANDER WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN LIKELY WASH OUT BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
BUILDS WESTWARD.  THIS WILL CAUSE PW TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO
UPWARDS OF TWO INCHES BY SUNDAY.  WHILE THIS POINTS TOWARD A WET
WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHEN IT COMES TO BEST TIME FRAME FOR
PRECIP.  ON FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A DISTURBANCE EMANATING FROM
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THAT SWEEPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND THEN LIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION.  ITS HARD TO PUT MUCH FAITH
IN SUCH A FEATURE THREE DAYS OUT...BUT ALL MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN
INCREASE IN QPF FOR FRIDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE 40-50
RANGE.  HOWEVER...BEYOND FRIDAY THERE IS VERY LITTLE TO KEY ON FOR
FORCING OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED JET AND WEAKENING COASTAL
TROUGH.  THUS...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN EACH DAY BE KEEP THEM BELOW
50 PERCENT UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE APPARENT WHICH DAY WILL BE FAVORED.
 THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GIVEN LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND RELATIVELY COOL DAYTIME
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.  A WARMING TREND SHOULD ENDUE
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHEN
TO OUR EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THAT IS MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE
EAST CLOSER TO SUNRISE. A LOOK AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DOES NOT
MAKE THIS SEEM LIKELY AND SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW
BUT THIS IS A POSSIBILITY BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z AT KRDU...KFAY...AND
KRWI. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH A PREDOMINANTLY NORTH
OR NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN IN THE
SOUTH AND EAST AT THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: A FRONT THAT HAS STALLED OFFSHORE MAY RETROGRADE BACK
OVER EASTERN NC BY THE END OF THE WEEK...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 291841
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
241 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A COASTAL FRONT SPREADS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS NOW EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN
AREAS OF THE CWA. THIS MAY KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM BREAKING
80 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
LOW TO MID 80S NORTH TO SOUTH. OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HINT AT
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES NEAR DAYBREAK IN THE EAST...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS APPEAR TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WOULD ALSO HELP TO LESSEN ANY FOG
THREAT.

WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR HIGHS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER IN THE 5-8 KFT RANGE
WILL HAVE THE HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION IN EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
WHICH MAY HELP KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM FORECASTED
HIGHS.


.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...
WHILE AT THE SURFACE COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 60S. WITH THE FRONT (THAT MOVED THROUGH ON MONDAY)
REMAINING OFFSHORE...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT
VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER AROUND AN INCH (IF NOT LESS).



&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
HIGHLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A
RESULT OF ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THAT IS MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE
EAST CLOSER TO SUNRISE. A LOOK AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DOES NOT
MAKE THIS SEEM LIKELY AND SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW
BUT THIS IS A POSSIBILITY BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z AT KRDU...KFAY...AND
KRWI. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH A PREDOMINANTLY NORTH
OR NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN IN THE
SOUTH AND EAST AT THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: A FRONT THAT HAS STALLED OFFSHORE MAY RETROGRADE BACK
OVER EASTERN NC BY THE END OF THE WEEK...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 291841
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
241 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A COASTAL FRONT SPREADS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS NOW EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN
AREAS OF THE CWA. THIS MAY KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM BREAKING
80 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
LOW TO MID 80S NORTH TO SOUTH. OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HINT AT
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES NEAR DAYBREAK IN THE EAST...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS APPEAR TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WOULD ALSO HELP TO LESSEN ANY FOG
THREAT.

WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR HIGHS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER IN THE 5-8 KFT RANGE
WILL HAVE THE HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION IN EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
WHICH MAY HELP KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM FORECASTED
HIGHS.


.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...
WHILE AT THE SURFACE COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 60S. WITH THE FRONT (THAT MOVED THROUGH ON MONDAY)
REMAINING OFFSHORE...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT
VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER AROUND AN INCH (IF NOT LESS).



&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
HIGHLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A
RESULT OF ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THAT IS MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE
EAST CLOSER TO SUNRISE. A LOOK AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DOES NOT
MAKE THIS SEEM LIKELY AND SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW
BUT THIS IS A POSSIBILITY BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z AT KRDU...KFAY...AND
KRWI. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH A PREDOMINANTLY NORTH
OR NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN IN THE
SOUTH AND EAST AT THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: A FRONT THAT HAS STALLED OFFSHORE MAY RETROGRADE BACK
OVER EASTERN NC BY THE END OF THE WEEK...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 291712
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
112 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A COASTAL FRONT SPREADS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

EARLIER CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA HAS DISSIPATED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER A NEW IMPULSE OF SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS MOVING INTO THE TRIAD AND VA
BORDER COUNTIES AND COULD PERSIST GOING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY.

LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COOL AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES VERY COMFORTABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS THICKNESS
DIP TO NEAR 30 M BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S NW TO SE. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW
STRATUS OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR HIGHS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES.


.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...
WHILE AT THE SURFACE COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 60S. WITH THE FRONT (THAT MOVED THROUGH ON MONDAY)
REMAINING OFFSHORE...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT
VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER AROUND AN INCH (IF NOT LESS).



&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
HIGHLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A
RESULT OF ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THAT IS MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE
EAST CLOSER TO SUNRISE. A LOOK AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DOES NOT
MAKE THIS SEEM LIKELY AND SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW
BUT THIS IS A POSSIBILITY BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z AT KRDU...KFAY...AND
KRWI. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH A PREDOMINANTLY NORTH
OR NORTHEASTLY DIRECTION SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN IN THE
SOUTH AND EAST AT THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: A FRONT THAT HAS STALLED OFFSHORE MAY RETROGRADE BACK
OVER EASTERN NC BY THE END OF THE WEEK...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 291712
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
112 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A COASTAL FRONT SPREADS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

EARLIER CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA HAS DISSIPATED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER A NEW IMPULSE OF SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS MOVING INTO THE TRIAD AND VA
BORDER COUNTIES AND COULD PERSIST GOING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY.

LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COOL AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES VERY COMFORTABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS THICKNESS
DIP TO NEAR 30 M BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S NW TO SE. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW
STRATUS OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR HIGHS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES.


.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...
WHILE AT THE SURFACE COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 60S. WITH THE FRONT (THAT MOVED THROUGH ON MONDAY)
REMAINING OFFSHORE...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT
VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER AROUND AN INCH (IF NOT LESS).



&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
HIGHLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A
RESULT OF ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY CAVEAT TO THAT IS MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE
EAST CLOSER TO SUNRISE. A LOOK AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DOES NOT
MAKE THIS SEEM LIKELY AND SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW
BUT THIS IS A POSSIBILITY BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z AT KRDU...KFAY...AND
KRWI. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH A PREDOMINANTLY NORTH
OR NORTHEASTLY DIRECTION SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN IN THE
SOUTH AND EAST AT THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: A FRONT THAT HAS STALLED OFFSHORE MAY RETROGRADE BACK
OVER EASTERN NC BY THE END OF THE WEEK...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 291414
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1014 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A COASTAL FRONT SPREADS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

EARLIER CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA HAS DISSIPATED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER A NEW IMPULSE OF SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS MOVING INTO THE TRIAD AND VA
BORDER COUNTIES AND COULD PERSIST GOING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY.

LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COOL AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES VERY COMFORTABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS THICKNESS
DIP TO NEAR 30 M BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S NW TO SE. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW
STRATUS OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR HIGHS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES.


.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...
WHILE AT THE SURFACE COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 60S. WITH THE FRONT (THAT MOVED THROUGH ON MONDAY)
REMAINING OFFSHORE...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT
VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER AROUND AN INCH (IF NOT LESS).



&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
HIGHLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A
RESULT OF ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM TUESDAY...

DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
FROM THE NORTH.

AN INLAND MOVING COASTAL TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ON INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 291414
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1014 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A COASTAL FRONT SPREADS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

EARLIER CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA HAS DISSIPATED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER A NEW IMPULSE OF SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS MOVING INTO THE TRIAD AND VA
BORDER COUNTIES AND COULD PERSIST GOING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY.

LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COOL AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES VERY COMFORTABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS THICKNESS
DIP TO NEAR 30 M BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S NW TO SE. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAVE LITTLE CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW
STRATUS OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BUT STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR HIGHS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES.


.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...
WHILE AT THE SURFACE COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 60S. WITH THE FRONT (THAT MOVED THROUGH ON MONDAY)
REMAINING OFFSHORE...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT
VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER AROUND AN INCH (IF NOT LESS).



&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
HIGHLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A
RESULT OF ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM TUESDAY...

DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
FROM THE NORTH.

AN INLAND MOVING COASTAL TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ON INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 291113
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
715 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A COASTAL FRONT SPREADS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

UNSEASONABLY DEEP EASTERN US TROUGH...CHARACTERIZED BY 500MB HEIGHT
ANOMALIES 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD....BRINGING A NICE STRETCH OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS...A
RARE TREAT IN THESE NECK OF THE WOODS FOR LATE JULY.

WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODIC FLARE-UPS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OWING TO DCVA AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE FO THE TROUGH...BUT DRY AND STABLE
LOW LEVELS WILL SECURE DRY CONDITIONS.

WITH THICKNESSES THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS STARTING OUT 25-30 METERS BELOW NORMAL
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM UPPER 70S/NEAR
80 NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH TODAY. A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER 80S
NORTH AND MID 80S SOUTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH ONE OR TWO
OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS POSSIBLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE MID 50S.


.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...
WHILE AT THE SURFACE COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 60S. WITH THE FRONT (THAT MOVED THROUGH ON MONDAY)
REMAINING OFFSHORE...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT
VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER AROUND AN INCH (IF NOT LESS).



&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
HIGHLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A
RESULT OF ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM TUESDAY...

DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
FROM THE NORTH.

AN INLAND MOVING COASTAL TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ON INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 291113
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
715 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A COASTAL FRONT SPREADS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

UNSEASONABLY DEEP EASTERN US TROUGH...CHARACTERIZED BY 500MB HEIGHT
ANOMALIES 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD....BRINGING A NICE STRETCH OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS...A
RARE TREAT IN THESE NECK OF THE WOODS FOR LATE JULY.

WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODIC FLARE-UPS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OWING TO DCVA AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE FO THE TROUGH...BUT DRY AND STABLE
LOW LEVELS WILL SECURE DRY CONDITIONS.

WITH THICKNESSES THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS STARTING OUT 25-30 METERS BELOW NORMAL
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM UPPER 70S/NEAR
80 NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH TODAY. A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER 80S
NORTH AND MID 80S SOUTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH ONE OR TWO
OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS POSSIBLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE MID 50S.


.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...
WHILE AT THE SURFACE COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 60S. WITH THE FRONT (THAT MOVED THROUGH ON MONDAY)
REMAINING OFFSHORE...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT
VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER AROUND AN INCH (IF NOT LESS).



&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
HIGHLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A
RESULT OF ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM TUESDAY...

DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
FROM THE NORTH.

AN INLAND MOVING COASTAL TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ON INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 290733
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
333 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A COASTAL FRONT SPREADS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

ANOMALOUSLY DEEP EASTERN US TROUGH...CHARACTERIZED BY 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD....BRINGING A NICE STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS...A RARE TREAT IN THESE NECK OF THE WOODS
FOR LATE JULY.

WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODIC FLARE-UPS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OWING TO DCVA AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE FO THE TROUGH...BUT DRY AND STABLE
LOW LEVELS WILL SECURE DRY CONDITIONS.

WITH THICKNESSES THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS STARTING OUT 25-30 METERS BELOW NORMAL
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM UPPER 70S/NEAR
80 NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH TODAY. A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER 80S
NORTH AND MID 80S SOUTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH ONE OR TWO
OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS POSSIBLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE MID 50S.


.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...
WHILE AT THE SURFACE COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 60S. WITH THE FRONT (THAT MOVED THROUGH ON MONDAY)
REMAINING OFFSHORE...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT
VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER AROUND AN INCH (IF NOT LESS).



&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
HIGHLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A
RESULT OF ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...

DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
FROM THE NORTH.

AN INLAND MOVING COASTAL TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ON INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290733
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
333 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A COASTAL FRONT SPREADS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

ANOMALOUSLY DEEP EASTERN US TROUGH...CHARACTERIZED BY 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD....BRINGING A NICE STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS...A RARE TREAT IN THESE NECK OF THE WOODS
FOR LATE JULY.

WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODIC FLARE-UPS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OWING TO DCVA AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE FO THE TROUGH...BUT DRY AND STABLE
LOW LEVELS WILL SECURE DRY CONDITIONS.

WITH THICKNESSES THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS STARTING OUT 25-30 METERS BELOW NORMAL
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM UPPER 70S/NEAR
80 NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH TODAY. A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER 80S
NORTH AND MID 80S SOUTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH ONE OR TWO
OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS POSSIBLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE MID 50S.


.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...
WHILE AT THE SURFACE COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 60S. WITH THE FRONT (THAT MOVED THROUGH ON MONDAY)
REMAINING OFFSHORE...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT
VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER AROUND AN INCH (IF NOT LESS).



&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
HIGHLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A
RESULT OF ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...

DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
FROM THE NORTH.

AN INLAND MOVING COASTAL TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ON INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 290700
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK... BRINGING UNSEASONABLY DRY
AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR LATE JULY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

ANOMALOUSLY DEEP EASTERN US TROUGH...CHARACTERIZED BY 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD....BRINGING A NICE STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS...A RARE TREAT IN THESE NECK OF THE WOODS
FOR LATE JULY.

WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODIC FLARE-UPS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OWING TO DCVA AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE FO THE TROUGH...BUT DRY AND STABLE
LOW LEVELS WILL SECURE DRY CONDITIONS.

WITH THICKNESSES THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS STARTING OUT 25-30 METERS BELOW NORMAL
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM UPPER 70S/NEAR
80 NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH TODAY. A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER 80S
NORTH AND MID 80S SOUTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH ONE OR TWO
OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS POSSIBLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE MID 50S.


.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...
WHILE AT THE SURFACE COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 60S. WITH THE FRONT (THAT MOVED THROUGH ON MONDAY)
REMAINING OFFSHORE...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT
VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER AROUND AN INCH (IF NOT LESS).



&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
HIGHLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A
RESULT OF ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...

DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
FROM THE NORTH.

AN INLAND MOVING COASTAL TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ON INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...32
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 290700
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK... BRINGING UNSEASONABLY DRY
AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR LATE JULY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

ANOMALOUSLY DEEP EASTERN US TROUGH...CHARACTERIZED BY 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD....BRINGING A NICE STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS...A RARE TREAT IN THESE NECK OF THE WOODS
FOR LATE JULY.

WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODIC FLARE-UPS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OWING TO DCVA AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE FO THE TROUGH...BUT DRY AND STABLE
LOW LEVELS WILL SECURE DRY CONDITIONS.

WITH THICKNESSES THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS STARTING OUT 25-30 METERS BELOW NORMAL
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM UPPER 70S/NEAR
80 NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH TODAY. A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER 80S
NORTH AND MID 80S SOUTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH ONE OR TWO
OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS POSSIBLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE MID 50S.


.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...
WHILE AT THE SURFACE COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE
LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 60S. WITH THE FRONT (THAT MOVED THROUGH ON MONDAY)
REMAINING OFFSHORE...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT
VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER AROUND AN INCH (IF NOT LESS).



&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
HIGHLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...THEN APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A
RESULT OF ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND MID/UPPER 60S BY LATE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...

DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
FROM THE NORTH.

AN INLAND MOVING COASTAL TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ON INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...32
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290528
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK... BRINGING UNSEASONABLY DRY
AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR LATE JULY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 937 PM MONDAY...

CONVECTION HAD GENERALLY SLIPPED OFF THE SE COAST OF NC THIS EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHED INTO THE COASTAL AREA. THE FRONT AT MID-
EVENING WAS LOCATED OVER SAMPSON COUNTY... DRIFTING SE. DEW POINTS
DROPPED 10-15 DEGREES JUST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER HARNETT... MOORE...
CUMBERLAND... AND SCOTLAND COUNTIES. BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...
GRADIENT WINDS GUSTED TO 36 MPH AT GREENSBORO... WHICH IS A RARITY
FOR JULY... ESPECIALLY THE LAST WEEK OF JULY WHEN THE HOTTEST
WEATHER IS TYPICALLY RECORDED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALSO FELL
INTO THE LOWER 30S... AGAIN A RARE FEAT IN LATE JULY IN NC.

THE LATEST DATA INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
OUR REGION. THE LATEST GREENSBORO AND BLACKSBURG RAOBS INDICATED A
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL INVERSION WHICH HAD TRAPPED SOME MOISTURE IN
THE H7 LEVEL. THIS WAS APPARENT IN THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE SOME OBSERVATIONS REPORTED A BROKEN CEILING
WITH BASES OF 7-10K FEET.

THE OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE CAA WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISH
IN THE NW BREEZE. THE MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE SE... BUT SHOULD
BECOME CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT IN THE LEE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. LOWS 58-65... WITH SOME MID 50S NORTHERN
PIEDMONT IF THE WINDS CAN GO CALM AROUND SUNRISE.

RECORD LOWS ARE 55 AT BOTH GSO AND RDU... BOTH RECORDED IN 1946.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM MONDAY...

BENEATH AND WEST OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITHIN A MID-UPPER TROUGH
AXIS NEAR 85W...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. COOLER AIR
CHARACTERIZED BY H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND 13C...WHICH WAS ALREADY ON
THE DOORSTEP OF THE RAH CWFA/AT KRNK AND KBNA AT 12Z MON...WILL HAVE
FULLY OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC THIS PERIOD - SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN
THE 50S BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVER THE OH VALLEY...THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL FAR FROM LATE
JULY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES OF AROUND 1380 METERS OR SO AT 12Z
WED FAVORS LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ON AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A STABLE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL KEEP
THE EAST/WEST COAST UPEPR TROUGH/RIDGE SETUP IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO
THICKNESSES AS MUCH AS 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY...WITH
ONLY A SLOW MODERATION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

PW FALLS WELL BELOW ONE INCH WEDNESDAY...ABOUT 50
PERCENT OF NORMAL...WITH DEWPOINTS WILL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.  THE ECMWF PRODUCES A LITTLE QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN AS A SPEED MAX ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPEPR TROUGH NOSES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  HOWEVER... PW FALLS WELL BELOW
ONE INCH WEDNESDAY...ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 50S. THIS RESULTS IN ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY AND LIKELY JUST A DECENT CU FIELD OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  HIGHS 82-86.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MODELS SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AND HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD LEAD INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY
DIURNAL...AS 1) PW BEGINS TO INCREASE BACK TOWARD NORMAL...2)AN
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH POTENTIALLY SHIFTS WESTWARD AND INLAND...AND
3) AN UPPER JET BECOMES POSITIONED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.   GIVEN THAT FORCING SHOULD MAINLY COME FROM AFTERNOON
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND/OR THE SEABREEZE...CHANCE POPS AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY SEEM MOST REASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE CONFLUENT OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  NOT
SURPRISINGLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOW SIGN OF LOW CLOUDS AT
THIS POINT...AND ITS HARD TO TELL HOW MUCH IMPACT THERE WOULD BE.
GIVEN THIS AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL REMAIN
ONE OR TWO CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...

DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
FROM THE NORTH.

AN INLAND MOVING COASTAL TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ON INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...32
NEAR TERM...32
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 290528
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK... BRINGING UNSEASONABLY DRY
AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR LATE JULY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 937 PM MONDAY...

CONVECTION HAD GENERALLY SLIPPED OFF THE SE COAST OF NC THIS EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHED INTO THE COASTAL AREA. THE FRONT AT MID-
EVENING WAS LOCATED OVER SAMPSON COUNTY... DRIFTING SE. DEW POINTS
DROPPED 10-15 DEGREES JUST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER HARNETT... MOORE...
CUMBERLAND... AND SCOTLAND COUNTIES. BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...
GRADIENT WINDS GUSTED TO 36 MPH AT GREENSBORO... WHICH IS A RARITY
FOR JULY... ESPECIALLY THE LAST WEEK OF JULY WHEN THE HOTTEST
WEATHER IS TYPICALLY RECORDED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALSO FELL
INTO THE LOWER 30S... AGAIN A RARE FEAT IN LATE JULY IN NC.

THE LATEST DATA INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
OUR REGION. THE LATEST GREENSBORO AND BLACKSBURG RAOBS INDICATED A
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL INVERSION WHICH HAD TRAPPED SOME MOISTURE IN
THE H7 LEVEL. THIS WAS APPARENT IN THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE SOME OBSERVATIONS REPORTED A BROKEN CEILING
WITH BASES OF 7-10K FEET.

THE OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE CAA WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISH
IN THE NW BREEZE. THE MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE SE... BUT SHOULD
BECOME CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT IN THE LEE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. LOWS 58-65... WITH SOME MID 50S NORTHERN
PIEDMONT IF THE WINDS CAN GO CALM AROUND SUNRISE.

RECORD LOWS ARE 55 AT BOTH GSO AND RDU... BOTH RECORDED IN 1946.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM MONDAY...

BENEATH AND WEST OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITHIN A MID-UPPER TROUGH
AXIS NEAR 85W...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. COOLER AIR
CHARACTERIZED BY H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND 13C...WHICH WAS ALREADY ON
THE DOORSTEP OF THE RAH CWFA/AT KRNK AND KBNA AT 12Z MON...WILL HAVE
FULLY OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC THIS PERIOD - SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN
THE 50S BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVER THE OH VALLEY...THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL FAR FROM LATE
JULY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES OF AROUND 1380 METERS OR SO AT 12Z
WED FAVORS LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ON AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A STABLE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL KEEP
THE EAST/WEST COAST UPEPR TROUGH/RIDGE SETUP IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO
THICKNESSES AS MUCH AS 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY...WITH
ONLY A SLOW MODERATION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

PW FALLS WELL BELOW ONE INCH WEDNESDAY...ABOUT 50
PERCENT OF NORMAL...WITH DEWPOINTS WILL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.  THE ECMWF PRODUCES A LITTLE QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN AS A SPEED MAX ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPEPR TROUGH NOSES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  HOWEVER... PW FALLS WELL BELOW
ONE INCH WEDNESDAY...ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 50S. THIS RESULTS IN ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY AND LIKELY JUST A DECENT CU FIELD OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  HIGHS 82-86.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MODELS SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AND HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD LEAD INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY
DIURNAL...AS 1) PW BEGINS TO INCREASE BACK TOWARD NORMAL...2)AN
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH POTENTIALLY SHIFTS WESTWARD AND INLAND...AND
3) AN UPPER JET BECOMES POSITIONED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.   GIVEN THAT FORCING SHOULD MAINLY COME FROM AFTERNOON
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND/OR THE SEABREEZE...CHANCE POPS AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY SEEM MOST REASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE CONFLUENT OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  NOT
SURPRISINGLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOW SIGN OF LOW CLOUDS AT
THIS POINT...AND ITS HARD TO TELL HOW MUCH IMPACT THERE WOULD BE.
GIVEN THIS AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL REMAIN
ONE OR TWO CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...

DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
FROM THE NORTH.

AN INLAND MOVING COASTAL TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND ON INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...32
NEAR TERM...32
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290137
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
937 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK... BRINGING UNSEASONABLY DRY
AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR LATE JULY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 937 PM MONDAY...

CONVECTION HAD GENERALLY SLIPPED OFF THE SE COAST OF NC THIS EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHED INTO THE COASTAL AREA. THE FRONT AT MID-
EVENING WAS LOCATED OVER SAMPSON COUNTY... DRIFTING SE. DEW POINTS
DROPPED 10-15 DEGREES JUST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER HARNETT... MOORE...
CUMBERLAND... AND SCOTLAND COUNTIES. BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...
GRADIENT WINDS GUSTED TO 36 MPH AT GREENSBORO... WHICH IS A RARITY
FOR JULY... ESPECIALLY THE LAST WEEK OF JULY WHEN THE HOTTEST
WEATHER IS TYPICALLY RECORDED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALSO FELL
INTO THE LOWER 30S... AGAIN A RARE FEAT IN LATE JULY IN NC.

THE LATEST DATA INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
OUR REGION. THE LATEST GREENSBORO AND BLACKSBURG RAOBS INDICATED A
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL INVERSION WHICH HAD TRAPPED SOME MOISTURE IN
THE H7 LEVEL. THIS WAS APPARENT IN THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE SOME OBSERVATIONS REPORTED A BROKEN CEILING
WITH BASES OF 7-10K FEET.

THE OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE CAA WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISH
IN THE NW BREEZE. THE MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE SE... BUT SHOULD
BECOME CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT IN THE LEE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. LOWS 58-65... WITH SOME MID 50S NORTHERN
PIEDMONT IF THE WINDS CAN GO CALM AROUND SUNRISE.

RECORD LOWS ARE 55 AT BOTH GSO AND RDU... BOTH RECORDED IN 1946.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM MONDAY...

BENEATH AND WEST OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITHIN A MID-UPPER TROUGH
AXIS NEAR 85W...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. COOLER AIR
CHARACTERIZED BY H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND 13C...WHICH WAS ALREADY ON
THE DOORSTEP OF THE RAH CWFA/AT KRNK AND KBNA AT 12Z MON...WILL HAVE
FULLY OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC THIS PERIOD - SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN
THE 50S BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVER THE OH VALLEY...THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL FAR FROM LATE
JULY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES OF AROUND 1380 METERS OR SO AT 12Z
WED FAVORS LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ON AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A STABLE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL KEEP
THE EAST/WEST COAST UPEPR TROUGH/RIDGE SETUP IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO
THICKNESSES AS MUCH AS 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY...WITH
ONLY A SLOW MODERATION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

PW FALLS WELL BELOW ONE INCH WEDNESDAY...ABOUT 50
PERCENT OF NORMAL...WITH DEWPOINTS WILL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.  THE ECMWF PRODUCES A LITTLE QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN AS A SPEED MAX ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPEPR TROUGH NOSES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  HOWEVER... PW FALLS WELL BELOW
ONE INCH WEDNESDAY...ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 50S. THIS RESULTS IN ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY AND LIKELY JUST A DECENT CU FIELD OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  HIGHS 82-86.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MODELS SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AND HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD LEAD INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY
DIURNAL...AS 1) PW BEGINS TO INCREASE BACK TOWARD NORMAL...2)AN
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH POTENTIALLY SHIFTS WESTWARD AND INLAND...AND
3) AN UPPER JET BECOMES POSITIONED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.   GIVEN THAT FORCING SHOULD MAINLY COME FROM AFTERNOON
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND/OR THE SEABREEZE...CHANCE POPS AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY SEEM MOST REASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE CONFLUENT OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  NOT
SURPRISINGLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOW SIGN OF LOW CLOUDS AT
THIS POINT...AND ITS HARD TO TELL HOW MUCH IMPACT THERE WOULD BE.
GIVEN THIS AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL REMAIN
ONE OR TWO CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...

DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS...ONLY PATCHY AFTERNOON CUMULUS EXPECTED...
THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COASTAL SURFACE TROF AND A STRONG UPPER SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE
PREDOMINANT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...32
NEAR TERM...32
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MLM




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290137
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
937 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK... BRINGING UNSEASONABLY DRY
AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR LATE JULY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 937 PM MONDAY...

CONVECTION HAD GENERALLY SLIPPED OFF THE SE COAST OF NC THIS EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHED INTO THE COASTAL AREA. THE FRONT AT MID-
EVENING WAS LOCATED OVER SAMPSON COUNTY... DRIFTING SE. DEW POINTS
DROPPED 10-15 DEGREES JUST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER HARNETT... MOORE...
CUMBERLAND... AND SCOTLAND COUNTIES. BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...
GRADIENT WINDS GUSTED TO 36 MPH AT GREENSBORO... WHICH IS A RARITY
FOR JULY... ESPECIALLY THE LAST WEEK OF JULY WHEN THE HOTTEST
WEATHER IS TYPICALLY RECORDED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY ALSO FELL
INTO THE LOWER 30S... AGAIN A RARE FEAT IN LATE JULY IN NC.

THE LATEST DATA INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
OUR REGION. THE LATEST GREENSBORO AND BLACKSBURG RAOBS INDICATED A
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL INVERSION WHICH HAD TRAPPED SOME MOISTURE IN
THE H7 LEVEL. THIS WAS APPARENT IN THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE SOME OBSERVATIONS REPORTED A BROKEN CEILING
WITH BASES OF 7-10K FEET.

THE OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE CAA WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISH
IN THE NW BREEZE. THE MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE SE... BUT SHOULD
BECOME CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT IN THE LEE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. LOWS 58-65... WITH SOME MID 50S NORTHERN
PIEDMONT IF THE WINDS CAN GO CALM AROUND SUNRISE.

RECORD LOWS ARE 55 AT BOTH GSO AND RDU... BOTH RECORDED IN 1946.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM MONDAY...

BENEATH AND WEST OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITHIN A MID-UPPER TROUGH
AXIS NEAR 85W...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. COOLER AIR
CHARACTERIZED BY H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND 13C...WHICH WAS ALREADY ON
THE DOORSTEP OF THE RAH CWFA/AT KRNK AND KBNA AT 12Z MON...WILL HAVE
FULLY OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC THIS PERIOD - SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN
THE 50S BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVER THE OH VALLEY...THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL FAR FROM LATE
JULY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES OF AROUND 1380 METERS OR SO AT 12Z
WED FAVORS LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ON AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A STABLE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL KEEP
THE EAST/WEST COAST UPEPR TROUGH/RIDGE SETUP IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO
THICKNESSES AS MUCH AS 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY...WITH
ONLY A SLOW MODERATION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

PW FALLS WELL BELOW ONE INCH WEDNESDAY...ABOUT 50
PERCENT OF NORMAL...WITH DEWPOINTS WILL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.  THE ECMWF PRODUCES A LITTLE QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN AS A SPEED MAX ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPEPR TROUGH NOSES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  HOWEVER... PW FALLS WELL BELOW
ONE INCH WEDNESDAY...ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 50S. THIS RESULTS IN ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY AND LIKELY JUST A DECENT CU FIELD OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  HIGHS 82-86.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MODELS SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AND HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD LEAD INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY
DIURNAL...AS 1) PW BEGINS TO INCREASE BACK TOWARD NORMAL...2)AN
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH POTENTIALLY SHIFTS WESTWARD AND INLAND...AND
3) AN UPPER JET BECOMES POSITIONED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.   GIVEN THAT FORCING SHOULD MAINLY COME FROM AFTERNOON
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND/OR THE SEABREEZE...CHANCE POPS AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY SEEM MOST REASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE CONFLUENT OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  NOT
SURPRISINGLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOW SIGN OF LOW CLOUDS AT
THIS POINT...AND ITS HARD TO TELL HOW MUCH IMPACT THERE WOULD BE.
GIVEN THIS AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL REMAIN
ONE OR TWO CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...

DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS...ONLY PATCHY AFTERNOON CUMULUS EXPECTED...
THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COASTAL SURFACE TROF AND A STRONG UPPER SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE
PREDOMINANT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...32
NEAR TERM...32
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MLM





000
FXUS62 KRAH 282301
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
700 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NC COAST EARLY
TONIGHT...AND REMAIN STALLED OFFSHORE TUESDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...

UPDATE...DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO
THE COAST. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WILL
UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS SPEED UP THE CLEARING SKY
CONDITION TREND.

THE PASSAGE OF A TRAILING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVERNIGHT COULD PRODUCE A
FEW PATCHES OF HIGH STRATOCUMULUS OR LOW ALTOCUMULUS PER UPSTREAM/OH
VALLEY OBSERVATIONS...AND NWP GUIDANCE...BUT SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY. COOLER AS THE CANADIAN HIGH
CONTINUES TO NOSE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS - LOWS WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM MONDAY...

BENEATH AND WEST OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITHIN A MID-UPPER TROUGH
AXIS NEAR 85W...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. COOLER AIR
CHARACTERIZED BY H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND 13C...WHICH WAS ALREADY ON
THE DOORSTEP OF THE RAH CWFA/AT KRNK AND KBNA AT 12Z MON...WILL HAVE
FULLY OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC THIS PERIOD - SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN
THE 50S BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVER THE OH VALLEY...THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL FAR FROM LATE
JULY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES OF AROUND 1380 METERS OR SO AT 12Z
WED FAVORS LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ON AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A STABLE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL KEEP
THE EAST/WEST COAST UPEPR TROUGH/RIDGE SETUP IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO
THICKNESSES AS MUCH AS 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY...WITH
ONLY A SLOW MODERATION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

PW FALLS WELL BELOW ONE INCH WEDNESDAY...ABOUT 50
PERCENT OF NORMAL...WITH DEWPOINTS WILL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.  THE ECMWF PRODUCES A LITTLE QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN AS A SPEED MAX ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPEPR TROUGH NOSES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  HOWEVER... PW FALLS WELL BELOW
ONE INCH WEDNESDAY...ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 50S. THIS RESULTS IN ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY AND LIKELY JUST A DECENT CU FIELD OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  HIGHS 82-86.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MODELS SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AND HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD LEAD INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY
DIURNAL...AS 1) PW BEGINS TO INCREASE BACK TOWARD NORMAL...2)AN
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH POTENTIALLY SHIFTS WESTWARD AND INLAND...AND
3) AN UPPER JET BECOMES POSITIONED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.   GIVEN THAT FORCING SHOULD MAINLY COME FROM AFTERNOON
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND/OR THE SEABREEZE...CHANCE POPS AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY SEEM MOST REASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE CONFLUENT OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  NOT
SURPRISINGLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOW SIGN OF LOW CLOUDS AT
THIS POINT...AND ITS HARD TO TELL HOW MUCH IMPACT THERE WOULD BE.
GIVEN THIS AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL REMAIN
ONE OR TWO CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...

DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS...ONLY PATCHY AFTERNOON CUMULUS EXPECTED...
THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COASTAL SURFACE TROF AND A STRONG UPPER SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE
PREDOMINANT TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/MLM
NEAR TERM...MWW/MLM
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MLM





000
FXUS62 KRAH 281930
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
EVENING...THEN STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
OTHERWISE EXPAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...

AT 19Z THE SFC FRONT/CONFLUENCE AXIS/NORTHERN BOUND OF SFC DEWPOINTS
AOA 70 DEGREES EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN NC OUTER BANS WSW TO NEAR
KCTZ TO NEAR KCAE. SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INITIATED INVOF THE
ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN KLBT AND KFLO; AND THESE WILL
SPREAD QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC...INCLUDING SAMPSON
COUNTY IN THE RAH CWFA...DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THE AIR MASS
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...BENEATH A RESIDUAL PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM PER THE 12Z KMHX RAOB AND MORE
RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA...HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A BELT OF STRONG (40-50 KT)
MID LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS-TN VALLEY-NC COAST
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CHARACTERIZED BY LONG AND
STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AND KILM THROUGH 00Z -
SUPPORTIVE OF A CONDITIONAL SVR RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL (LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS PROVIDED STORMS DO NOT
SUCCUMB TO ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED ON MOISTURE CHANNEL
AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY).

THE PASSAGE OF A TRAILING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVERNIGHT COULD PRODUCE A
FEW PATCHES OF HIGH STRATOCUMULUS OR LOW ALTOCUMULUS PER UPSTREAM/OH
VALLEY OBSERVATIONS...AND NWP GUIDANCE...BUT SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY. COOLER AS THE CANADIAN HIGH
CONTINUES TO NOSE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS - LOWS WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM MONDAY...

BENEATH AND WEST OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITHIN A MID-UPPER TROUGH
AXIS NEAR 85W...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. COOLER AIR
CHARACTERIZED BY H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND 13C...WHICH WAS ALREADY ON
THE DOORSTEP OF THE RAH CWFA/AT KRNK AND KBNA AT 12Z MON...WILL HAVE
FULLY OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC THIS PERIOD - SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN
THE 50S BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVER THE OH VALLEY...THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL FAR FROM LATE
JULY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES OF AROUND 1380 METERS OR SO AT 12Z
WED FAVORS LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ON AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A STABLE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL KEEP
THE EAST/WEST COAST UPEPR TROUGH/RIDGE SETUP IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO
THICKNESSES AS MUCH AS 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY...WITH
ONLY A SLOW MODERATION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

PW FALLS WELL BELOW ONE INCH WEDNESDAY...ABOUT 50
PERCENT OF NORMAL...WITH DEWPOINTS WILL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.  THE ECMWF PRODUCES A LITTLE QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN AS A SPEED MAX ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPEPR TROUGH NOSES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  HOWEVER... PW FALLS WELL BELOW
ONE INCH WEDNESDAY...ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 50S. THIS RESULTS IN ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY AND LIKELY JUST A DECENT CU FIELD OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  HIGHS 82-86.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MODELS SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AND HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD LEAD INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY
DIURNAL...AS 1) PW BEGINS TO INCREASE BACK TOWARD NORMAL...2)AN
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH POTENTIALLY SHIFTS WESTWARD AND INLAND...AND
3) AN UPPER JET BECOMES POSITIONED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.   GIVEN THAT FORCING SHOULD MAINLY COME FROM AFTERNOON
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND/OR THE SEABREEZE...CHANCE POPS AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY SEEM MOST REASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE CONFLUENT OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  NOT
SURPRISINGLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOW SIGN OF LOW CLOUDS AT
THIS POINT...AND ITS HARD TO TELL HOW MUCH IMPACT THERE WOULD BE.
GIVEN THIS AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL REMAIN
ONE OR TWO CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT NEAR KFAY WILL SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF THE RAH
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNSET. WHILE THERE REMAINS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM AT KFAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT ANY SUCH STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG COASTAL/SE NC WHERE LOW AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS (MARGINALLY) MORE SUPPORTIVE. OTHERWISE...A BREEZY
WESTERLY WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO NW...AND SUBSIDE AROUND
SUNSET...WITH LIGHT NW WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL CUMULUS
SHOULD LIKEWISE DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH THE PASSAGE OF A
TRAILING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVERNIGHT COULD PRODUCE A FEW PATCHES OF
HIGH STRATOCUMULUS OR LOW ALTOCUMULUS PER UPSTREAM/OH VALLEY
OBSERVATIONS...AND NWP GUIDANCE.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED
OVER THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN
YIELDS TO AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
STORM BY FRI-SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 281930
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
EVENING...THEN STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
OTHERWISE EXPAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...

AT 19Z THE SFC FRONT/CONFLUENCE AXIS/NORTHERN BOUND OF SFC DEWPOINTS
AOA 70 DEGREES EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN NC OUTER BANS WSW TO NEAR
KCTZ TO NEAR KCAE. SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INITIATED INVOF THE
ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN KLBT AND KFLO; AND THESE WILL
SPREAD QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC...INCLUDING SAMPSON
COUNTY IN THE RAH CWFA...DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THE AIR MASS
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...BENEATH A RESIDUAL PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM PER THE 12Z KMHX RAOB AND MORE
RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA...HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A BELT OF STRONG (40-50 KT)
MID LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS-TN VALLEY-NC COAST
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...CHARACTERIZED BY LONG AND
STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AND KILM THROUGH 00Z -
SUPPORTIVE OF A CONDITIONAL SVR RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL (LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS PROVIDED STORMS DO NOT
SUCCUMB TO ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR ALOFT NOTED ON MOISTURE CHANNEL
AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY).

THE PASSAGE OF A TRAILING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVERNIGHT COULD PRODUCE A
FEW PATCHES OF HIGH STRATOCUMULUS OR LOW ALTOCUMULUS PER UPSTREAM/OH
VALLEY OBSERVATIONS...AND NWP GUIDANCE...BUT SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY. COOLER AS THE CANADIAN HIGH
CONTINUES TO NOSE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS - LOWS WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM MONDAY...

BENEATH AND WEST OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITHIN A MID-UPPER TROUGH
AXIS NEAR 85W...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. COOLER AIR
CHARACTERIZED BY H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND 13C...WHICH WAS ALREADY ON
THE DOORSTEP OF THE RAH CWFA/AT KRNK AND KBNA AT 12Z MON...WILL HAVE
FULLY OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC THIS PERIOD - SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN
THE 50S BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVER THE OH VALLEY...THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL FAR FROM LATE
JULY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES OF AROUND 1380 METERS OR SO AT 12Z
WED FAVORS LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ON AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A STABLE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL KEEP
THE EAST/WEST COAST UPEPR TROUGH/RIDGE SETUP IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO
THICKNESSES AS MUCH AS 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY...WITH
ONLY A SLOW MODERATION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

PW FALLS WELL BELOW ONE INCH WEDNESDAY...ABOUT 50
PERCENT OF NORMAL...WITH DEWPOINTS WILL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.  THE ECMWF PRODUCES A LITTLE QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN AS A SPEED MAX ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPEPR TROUGH NOSES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  HOWEVER... PW FALLS WELL BELOW
ONE INCH WEDNESDAY...ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 50S. THIS RESULTS IN ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY AND LIKELY JUST A DECENT CU FIELD OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  HIGHS 82-86.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MODELS SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AND HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD LEAD INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY
DIURNAL...AS 1) PW BEGINS TO INCREASE BACK TOWARD NORMAL...2)AN
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH POTENTIALLY SHIFTS WESTWARD AND INLAND...AND
3) AN UPPER JET BECOMES POSITIONED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.   GIVEN THAT FORCING SHOULD MAINLY COME FROM AFTERNOON
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND/OR THE SEABREEZE...CHANCE POPS AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY SEEM MOST REASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE CONFLUENT OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  NOT
SURPRISINGLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOW SIGN OF LOW CLOUDS AT
THIS POINT...AND ITS HARD TO TELL HOW MUCH IMPACT THERE WOULD BE.
GIVEN THIS AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL REMAIN
ONE OR TWO CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT NEAR KFAY WILL SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF THE RAH
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNSET. WHILE THERE REMAINS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM AT KFAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT ANY SUCH STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG COASTAL/SE NC WHERE LOW AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS (MARGINALLY) MORE SUPPORTIVE. OTHERWISE...A BREEZY
WESTERLY WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO NW...AND SUBSIDE AROUND
SUNSET...WITH LIGHT NW WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL CUMULUS
SHOULD LIKEWISE DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH THE PASSAGE OF A
TRAILING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVERNIGHT COULD PRODUCE A FEW PATCHES OF
HIGH STRATOCUMULUS OR LOW ALTOCUMULUS PER UPSTREAM/OH VALLEY
OBSERVATIONS...AND NWP GUIDANCE.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED
OVER THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN
YIELDS TO AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
STORM BY FRI-SAT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281900
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
EVENING...THEN STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
OTHERWISE EXPAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM MONDAY...

HARD TO IMAGINE THAT SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE FRONT IN LATE JULY WOULD RESULT IN SO LITTLE RAINFALL FOR
CENTRAL NC...AND THAT WHAT LITTLE RAIN THAT DID OCCUR RESULTED FROM
AN MCV WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. OVERWHELMING
NOCTURNAL CINH FOLLOWED THIS MORNING BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS SIMPLY
PROVEN TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME.

MOISTURE CHANNEL AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY INDICATE DEEP DRYNESS...AND
CAPPING/STABILITY PER PROXIMITY RAOBS AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS...HAS
ENVELOPED ALL BUT SE NC THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL CONSEQUENTLY NOW BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...INVOF AND AHEAD
OF A SFC TROUGH/FRONT THAT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM NEAR THE
NC OUTER BANKS TO THE SANDHILLS TO THE SC UPSTATE...AS DRY AIR IN
THE 850-925 MB LAYER IS IMPARTED ON THE SFC WITH HEATING/MIXING.
THESE AREAS WILL BE ON THE NW EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER COASTAL AREAS...FUELED BY KMHX 12Z-OBSERVED MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM. IN ADDITION...A BELT OF
STRONG (40-50 KT) MID LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS-
TN VALLEY-NC COAST WILL PROVIDE AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
CHARACTERIZED BY LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AND
KILM THROUGH 00Z - SUPPORTIVE OF A CONDITIONAL SVR RISK OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL (LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS PROVIDED
STORMS CAN BOTH DEVELOP AND NOT SUCCUMB TO ENTRAINMENT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR ALOFT). HOWEVER...THIS PROBABILITY OF STORMS
FORMING AND THRIVING IN THE RAH CWFA IS RELATIVELY LOW - ONLY AROUND
20 PERCENT.

OTHERWISE...A RELATIVELY TIGHT MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT ABOUT THE SFC
FRONT WILL GENERATE A BREEZY GENERALLY WESTERLY SFC WIND (WNW OVER
THE PIEDMONT TO WSW OVER THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN)...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S
SE. LOWS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM MONDAY...

BENEATH AND WEST OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITHIN A MID-UPPER TROUGH
AXIS NEAR 85W...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. COOLER AIR
CHARACTERIZED BY H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND 13C...WHICH WAS ALREADY ON
THE DOORSTEP OF THE RAH CWFA/AT KRNK AND KBNA AT 12Z MON...WILL HAVE
FULLY OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC THIS PERIOD - SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN
THE 50S BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVER THE OH VALLEY...THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL FAR FROM LATE
JULY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES OF AROUND 1380 METERS OR SO AT 12Z
WED FAVORS LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ON AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A STABLE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL KEEP
THE EAST/WEST COAST UPEPR TROUGH/RIDGE SETUP IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO
THICKNESSES AS MUCH AS 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY...WITH
ONLY A SLOW MODERATION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

PW FALLS WELL BELOW ONE INCH WEDNESDAY...ABOUT 50
PERCENT OF NORMAL...WITH DEWPOINTS WILL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.  THE ECMWF PRODUCES A LITTLE QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN AS A SPEED MAX ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPEPR TROUGH NOSES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  HOWEVER... PW FALLS WELL BELOW
ONE INCH WEDNESDAY...ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 50S. THIS RESULTS IN ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY AND LIKELY JUST A DECENT CU FIELD OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  HIGHS 82-86.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MODELS SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AND HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD LEAD INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY
DIURNAL...AS 1) PW BEGINS TO INCREASE BACK TOWARD NORMAL...2)AN
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH POTENTIALLY SHIFTS WESTWARD AND INLAND...AND
3) AN UPPER JET BECOMES POSITIONED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.   GIVEN THAT FORCING SHOULD MAINLY COME FROM AFTERNOON
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND/OR THE SEABREEZE...CHANCE POPS AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY SEEM MOST REASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE CONFLUENT OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  NOT
SURPRISINGLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOW SIGN OF LOW CLOUDS AT
THIS POINT...AND ITS HARD TO TELL HOW MUCH IMPACT THERE WOULD BE.
GIVEN THIS AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL REMAIN
ONE OR TWO CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT NEAR KFAY WILL SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF THE RAH
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNSET. WHILE THERE REMAINS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM AT KFAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT ANY SUCH STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG COASTAL/SE NC WHERE LOW AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS (MARGINALLY) MORE SUPPORTIVE. OTHERWISE...A BREEZY
WESTERLY WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO NW...AND SUBSIDE AROUND
SUNSET...WITH LIGHT NW WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL CUMULUS
SHOULD LIKEWISE DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH THE PASSAGE OF A
TRAILING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVERNIGHT COULD PRODUCE A FEW PATCHES OF
HIGH STRATOCUMULUS OR LOW ALTOCUMULUS PER UPSTREAM/OH VALLEY
OBSERVATIONS...AND NWP GUIDANCE.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED
OVER THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN
YIELDS TO AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
STORM BY FRI-SAT.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281900
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
EVENING...THEN STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
OTHERWISE EXPAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM MONDAY...

HARD TO IMAGINE THAT SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE FRONT IN LATE JULY WOULD RESULT IN SO LITTLE RAINFALL FOR
CENTRAL NC...AND THAT WHAT LITTLE RAIN THAT DID OCCUR RESULTED FROM
AN MCV WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. OVERWHELMING
NOCTURNAL CINH FOLLOWED THIS MORNING BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS SIMPLY
PROVEN TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME.

MOISTURE CHANNEL AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY INDICATE DEEP DRYNESS...AND
CAPPING/STABILITY PER PROXIMITY RAOBS AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS...HAS
ENVELOPED ALL BUT SE NC THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL CONSEQUENTLY NOW BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...INVOF AND AHEAD
OF A SFC TROUGH/FRONT THAT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM NEAR THE
NC OUTER BANKS TO THE SANDHILLS TO THE SC UPSTATE...AS DRY AIR IN
THE 850-925 MB LAYER IS IMPARTED ON THE SFC WITH HEATING/MIXING.
THESE AREAS WILL BE ON THE NW EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER COASTAL AREAS...FUELED BY KMHX 12Z-OBSERVED MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM. IN ADDITION...A BELT OF
STRONG (40-50 KT) MID LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS-
TN VALLEY-NC COAST WILL PROVIDE AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
CHARACTERIZED BY LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AND
KILM THROUGH 00Z - SUPPORTIVE OF A CONDITIONAL SVR RISK OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL (LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS PROVIDED
STORMS CAN BOTH DEVELOP AND NOT SUCCUMB TO ENTRAINMENT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR ALOFT). HOWEVER...THIS PROBABILITY OF STORMS
FORMING AND THRIVING IN THE RAH CWFA IS RELATIVELY LOW - ONLY AROUND
20 PERCENT.

OTHERWISE...A RELATIVELY TIGHT MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT ABOUT THE SFC
FRONT WILL GENERATE A BREEZY GENERALLY WESTERLY SFC WIND (WNW OVER
THE PIEDMONT TO WSW OVER THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN)...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S
SE. LOWS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM MONDAY...

BENEATH AND WEST OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITHIN A MID-UPPER TROUGH
AXIS NEAR 85W...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. COOLER AIR
CHARACTERIZED BY H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND 13C...WHICH WAS ALREADY ON
THE DOORSTEP OF THE RAH CWFA/AT KRNK AND KBNA AT 12Z MON...WILL HAVE
FULLY OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC THIS PERIOD - SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN
THE 50S BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVER THE OH VALLEY...THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL FAR FROM LATE
JULY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES OF AROUND 1380 METERS OR SO AT 12Z
WED FAVORS LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ON AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A STABLE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL KEEP
THE EAST/WEST COAST UPEPR TROUGH/RIDGE SETUP IN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE
UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO
THICKNESSES AS MUCH AS 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY...WITH
ONLY A SLOW MODERATION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

PW FALLS WELL BELOW ONE INCH WEDNESDAY...ABOUT 50
PERCENT OF NORMAL...WITH DEWPOINTS WILL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.  THE ECMWF PRODUCES A LITTLE QPF OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN AS A SPEED MAX ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPEPR TROUGH NOSES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  HOWEVER... PW FALLS WELL BELOW
ONE INCH WEDNESDAY...ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 50S. THIS RESULTS IN ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY AND LIKELY JUST A DECENT CU FIELD OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  HIGHS 82-86.  LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MODELS SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING
INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AND HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD LEAD INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY
DIURNAL...AS 1) PW BEGINS TO INCREASE BACK TOWARD NORMAL...2)AN
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH POTENTIALLY SHIFTS WESTWARD AND INLAND...AND
3) AN UPPER JET BECOMES POSITIONED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS.   GIVEN THAT FORCING SHOULD MAINLY COME FROM AFTERNOON
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND/OR THE SEABREEZE...CHANCE POPS AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY SEEM MOST REASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE CONFLUENT OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  NOT
SURPRISINGLY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOW SIGN OF LOW CLOUDS AT
THIS POINT...AND ITS HARD TO TELL HOW MUCH IMPACT THERE WOULD BE.
GIVEN THIS AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL REMAIN
ONE OR TWO CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT NEAR KFAY WILL SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF THE RAH
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNSET. WHILE THERE REMAINS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM AT KFAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT ANY SUCH STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG COASTAL/SE NC WHERE LOW AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS (MARGINALLY) MORE SUPPORTIVE. OTHERWISE...A BREEZY
WESTERLY WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO NW...AND SUBSIDE AROUND
SUNSET...WITH LIGHT NW WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL CUMULUS
SHOULD LIKEWISE DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH THE PASSAGE OF A
TRAILING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVERNIGHT COULD PRODUCE A FEW PATCHES OF
HIGH STRATOCUMULUS OR LOW ALTOCUMULUS PER UPSTREAM/OH VALLEY
OBSERVATIONS...AND NWP GUIDANCE.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED
OVER THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN
YIELDS TO AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
STORM BY FRI-SAT.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 281858
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
258 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
EVENING...THEN STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
OTHERWISE EXPAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM MONDAY...

HARD TO IMAGINE THAT SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE FRONT IN LATE JULY WOULD RESULT IN SO LITTLE RAINFALL FOR
CENTRAL NC...AND THAT WHAT LITTLE RAIN THAT DID OCCUR RESULTED FROM
AN MCV WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. OVERWHELMING
NOCTURNAL CINH FOLLOWED THIS MORNING BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS SIMPLY
PROVEN TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME.

MOISTURE CHANNEL AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY INDICATE DEEP DRYNESS...AND
CAPPING/STABILITY PER PROXIMITY RAOBS AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS...HAS
ENVELOPED ALL BUT SE NC THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL CONSEQUENTLY NOW BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...INVOF AND AHEAD
OF A SFC TROUGH/FRONT THAT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM NEAR THE
NC OUTER BANKS TO THE SANDHILLS TO THE SC UPSTATE...AS DRY AIR IN
THE 850-925 MB LAYER IS IMPARTED ON THE SFC WITH HEATING/MIXING.
THESE AREAS WILL BE ON THE NW EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER COASTAL AREAS...FUELED BY KMHX 12Z-OBSERVED MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM. IN ADDITION...A BELT OF
STRONG (40-50 KT) MID LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS-
TN VALLEY-NC COAST WILL PROVIDE AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
CHARACTERIZED BY LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AND
KILM THROUGH 00Z - SUPPORTIVE OF A CONDITIONAL SVR RISK OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL (LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS PROVIDED
STORMS CAN BOTH DEVELOP AND NOT SUCCUMB TO ENTRAINMENT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR ALOFT). HOWEVER...THIS PROBABILITY OF STORMS
FORMING AND THRIVING IN THE RAH CWFA IS RELATIVELY LOW - ONLY AROUND
20 PERCENT.

OTHERWISE...A RELATIVELY TIGHT MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT ABOUT THE SFC
FRONT WILL GENERATE A BREEZY GENERALLY WESTERLY SFC WIND (WNW OVER
THE PIEDMONT TO WSW OVER THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN)...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S
SE. LOWS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM MONDAY...

BENEATH AND WEST OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITHIN A MID-UPPER TROUGH
AXIS NEAR 85W...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. COOLER AIR
CHARACTERIZED BY H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND 13C...WHICH WAS ALREADY ON
THE DOORSTEP OF THE RAH CWFA/AT KRNK AND KBNA AT 12Z MON...WILL HAVE
FULLY OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC THIS PERIOD - SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN
THE 50S BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVER THE OH VALLEY...THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RH AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL FAR FROM LATE
JULY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES OF AROUND 1380 METERS OR SO AT 12Z
WED FAVORS LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ON AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SATURDAY...THEN APPROACHING  2 INCHES
BY SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT OF
ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT NEAR KFAY WILL SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF THE RAH
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNSET. WHILE THERE REMAINS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM AT KFAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT ANY SUCH STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG COASTAL/SE NC WHERE LOW AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS (MARGINALLY) MORE SUPPORTIVE. OTHERWISE...A BREEZY
WESTERLY WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO NW...AND SUBSIDE AROUND
SUNSET...WITH LIGHT NW WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL CUMULUS
SHOULD LIKEWISE DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH THE PASSAGE OF A
TRAILING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVERNIGHT COULD PRODUCE A FEW PATCHES OF
HIGH STRATOCUMULUS OR LOW ALTOCUMULUS PER UPSTREAM/OH VALLEY
OBSERVATIONS...AND NWP GUIDANCE.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED
OVER THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN
YIELDS TO AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
STORM BY FRI-SAT.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281759
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
159 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
EVENING...THEN STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
OTHERWISE EXPAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM MONDAY...

HARD TO IMAGINE THAT SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE FRONT IN LATE JULY WOULD RESULT IN SO LITTLE RAINFALL FOR
CENTRAL NC...AND THAT WHAT LITTLE RAIN THAT DID OCCUR RESULTED FROM
AN MCV WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. OVERWHELMING
NOCTURNAL CINH FOLLOWED THIS MORNING BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS SIMPLY
PROVEN TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME.

MOISTURE CHANNEL AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY INDICATE DEEP DRYNESS...AND
CAPPING/STABILITY PER PROXIMITY RAOBS AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS...HAS
ENVELOPED ALL BUT SE NC THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL CONSEQUENTLY NOW BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...INVOF AND AHEAD
OF A SFC TROUGH/FRONT THAT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM NEAR THE
NC OUTER BANKS TO THE SANDHILLS TO THE SC UPSTATE...AS DRY AIR IN
THE 850-925 MB LAYER IS IMPARTED ON THE SFC WITH HEATING/MIXING.
THESE AREAS WILL BE ON THE NW EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER COASTAL AREAS...FUELED BY KMHX 12Z-OBSERVED MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM. IN ADDITION...A BELT OF
STRONG (40-50 KT) MID LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS-
TN VALLEY-NC COAST WILL PROVIDE AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
CHARACTERIZED BY LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AND
KILM THROUGH 00Z - SUPPORTIVE OF A CONDITIONAL SVR RISK OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL (LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS PROVIDED
STORMS CAN BOTH DEVELOP AND NOT SUCCUMB TO ENTRAINMENT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR ALOFT). HOWEVER...THIS PROBABILITY OF STORMS
FORMING AND THRIVING IN THE RAH CWFA IS RELATIVELY LOW - ONLY AROUND
20 PERCENT.

OTHERWISE...A RELATIVELY TIGHT MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT ABOUT THE SFC
FRONT WILL GENERATE A BREEZY GENERALLY WESTERLY SFC WIND (WNW OVER
THE PIEDMONT TO WSW OVER THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN)...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S
SE. LOWS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SATURDAY...THEN APPROACHING  2 INCHES
BY SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT OF
ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT NEAR KFAY WILL SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF THE RAH
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNSET. WHILE THERE REMAINS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM AT KFAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT ANY SUCH STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG COASTAL/SE NC WHERE LOW AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS (MARGINALLY) MORE SUPPORTIVE. OTHERWISE...A BREEZY
WESTERLY WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO NW...AND SUBSIDE AROUND
SUNSET...WITH LIGHT NW WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL CUMULUS
SHOULD LIKEWISE DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH THE PASSAGE OF A
TRAILING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVERNIGHT COULD PRODUCE A FEW PATCHES OF
HIGH STRATOCUMULUS OR LOW ALTOCUMULUS PER UPSTREAM/OH VALLEY
OBSERVATIONS...AND NWP GUIDANCE.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED
OVER THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN
YIELDS TO AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
STORM BY FRI-SAT.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281759
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
159 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
EVENING...THEN STALL OFFSHORE TUESDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
OTHERWISE EXPAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM MONDAY...

HARD TO IMAGINE THAT SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE FRONT IN LATE JULY WOULD RESULT IN SO LITTLE RAINFALL FOR
CENTRAL NC...AND THAT WHAT LITTLE RAIN THAT DID OCCUR RESULTED FROM
AN MCV WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. OVERWHELMING
NOCTURNAL CINH FOLLOWED THIS MORNING BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS SIMPLY
PROVEN TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME.

MOISTURE CHANNEL AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY INDICATE DEEP DRYNESS...AND
CAPPING/STABILITY PER PROXIMITY RAOBS AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS...HAS
ENVELOPED ALL BUT SE NC THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL CONSEQUENTLY NOW BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...INVOF AND AHEAD
OF A SFC TROUGH/FRONT THAT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM NEAR THE
NC OUTER BANKS TO THE SANDHILLS TO THE SC UPSTATE...AS DRY AIR IN
THE 850-925 MB LAYER IS IMPARTED ON THE SFC WITH HEATING/MIXING.
THESE AREAS WILL BE ON THE NW EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER COASTAL AREAS...FUELED BY KMHX 12Z-OBSERVED MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM. IN ADDITION...A BELT OF
STRONG (40-50 KT) MID LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS-
TN VALLEY-NC COAST WILL PROVIDE AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
CHARACTERIZED BY LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AND
KILM THROUGH 00Z - SUPPORTIVE OF A CONDITIONAL SVR RISK OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL (LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS PROVIDED
STORMS CAN BOTH DEVELOP AND NOT SUCCUMB TO ENTRAINMENT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR ALOFT). HOWEVER...THIS PROBABILITY OF STORMS
FORMING AND THRIVING IN THE RAH CWFA IS RELATIVELY LOW - ONLY AROUND
20 PERCENT.

OTHERWISE...A RELATIVELY TIGHT MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT ABOUT THE SFC
FRONT WILL GENERATE A BREEZY GENERALLY WESTERLY SFC WIND (WNW OVER
THE PIEDMONT TO WSW OVER THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN)...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S
SE. LOWS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SATURDAY...THEN APPROACHING  2 INCHES
BY SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT OF
ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT NEAR KFAY WILL SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF THE RAH
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNSET. WHILE THERE REMAINS A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM AT KFAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT ANY SUCH STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG COASTAL/SE NC WHERE LOW AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS (MARGINALLY) MORE SUPPORTIVE. OTHERWISE...A BREEZY
WESTERLY WIND WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO NW...AND SUBSIDE AROUND
SUNSET...WITH LIGHT NW WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL CUMULUS
SHOULD LIKEWISE DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH THE PASSAGE OF A
TRAILING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVERNIGHT COULD PRODUCE A FEW PATCHES OF
HIGH STRATOCUMULUS OR LOW ALTOCUMULUS PER UPSTREAM/OH VALLEY
OBSERVATIONS...AND NWP GUIDANCE.

PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED
OVER THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN
YIELDS TO AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
STORM BY FRI-SAT.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 281526
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1126 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON... BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM MONDAY...

HARD TO IMAGINE THAT SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE FRONT IN LATE JULY WOULD RESULT IN SO LITTLE RAINFALL FOR
CENTRAL NC...AND THAT WHAT LITTLE RAIN THAT DID OCCUR RESULTED FROM
AN MCV WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. OVERWHELMING
NOCTURNAL CINH FOLLOWED THIS MORNING BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS SIMPLY
PROVEN TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME.

MOISTURE CHANNEL AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY INDICATE DEEP DRYNESS...AND
CAPPING/STABILITY PER PROXIMITY RAOBS AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS...HAS
ENVELOPED ALL BUT SE NC THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL CONSEQUENTLY NOW BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...INVOF AND AHEAD
OF A SFC TROUGH/FRONT THAT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM NEAR THE
NC OUTER BANKS TO THE SANDHILLS TO THE SC UPSTATE...AS DRY AIR IN
THE 850-925 MB LAYER IS IMPARTED ON THE SFC WITH HEATING/MIXING.
THESE AREAS WILL BE ON THE NW EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER COASTAL AREAS...FUELED BY KMHX 12Z-OBSERVED MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM. IN ADDITION...A BELT OF
STRONG (40-50 KT) MID LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS-
TN VALLEY-NC COAST WILL PROVIDE AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
CHARACTERIZED BY LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AND
KILM THROUGH 00Z - SUPPORTIVE OF A CONDITIONAL SVR RISK OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL (LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS PROVIDED
STORMS CAN BOTH DEVELOP AND NOT SUCCUMB TO ENTRAINMENT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR ALOFT). HOWEVER...THIS PROBABILITY OF STORMS
FORMING AND THRIVING IN THE RAH CWFA IS RELATIVELY LOW - ONLY AROUND
20 PERCENT.

OTHERWISE...A RELATIVELY TIGHT MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT ABOUT THE SFC
FRONT WILL GENERATE A BREEZY GENERALLY WESTERLY SFC WIND (WNW OVER
THE PIEDMONT TO WSW OVER THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN)...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S
SE. LOWS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SATURDAY...THEN APPROACHING  2 INCHES
BY SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT OF
ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM MONDAY...

DRIER AIR WILL ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST
TO EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC. LATEST HI-RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE ALL RE-DEVELOPMENT WELL EAST OF KFAY
AND KRWI AND THUS DO NOT PLAN ON CARRYING ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE. AS SUCH...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME
MIXING RESULTING IN WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281526
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1126 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON... BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM MONDAY...

HARD TO IMAGINE THAT SUCH STRONG DYNAMICS AND THE PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE FRONT IN LATE JULY WOULD RESULT IN SO LITTLE RAINFALL FOR
CENTRAL NC...AND THAT WHAT LITTLE RAIN THAT DID OCCUR RESULTED FROM
AN MCV WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. OVERWHELMING
NOCTURNAL CINH FOLLOWED THIS MORNING BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS SIMPLY
PROVEN TOO GREAT TO OVERCOME.

MOISTURE CHANNEL AND BLENDED TPW IMAGERY INDICATE DEEP DRYNESS...AND
CAPPING/STABILITY PER PROXIMITY RAOBS AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS...HAS
ENVELOPED ALL BUT SE NC THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL CONSEQUENTLY NOW BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...INVOF AND AHEAD
OF A SFC TROUGH/FRONT THAT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM NEAR THE
NC OUTER BANKS TO THE SANDHILLS TO THE SC UPSTATE...AS DRY AIR IN
THE 850-925 MB LAYER IS IMPARTED ON THE SFC WITH HEATING/MIXING.
THESE AREAS WILL BE ON THE NW EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER COASTAL AREAS...FUELED BY KMHX 12Z-OBSERVED MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM. IN ADDITION...A BELT OF
STRONG (40-50 KT) MID LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS-
TN VALLEY-NC COAST WILL PROVIDE AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
CHARACTERIZED BY LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AND
KILM THROUGH 00Z - SUPPORTIVE OF A CONDITIONAL SVR RISK OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL (LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS PROVIDED
STORMS CAN BOTH DEVELOP AND NOT SUCCUMB TO ENTRAINMENT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR ALOFT). HOWEVER...THIS PROBABILITY OF STORMS
FORMING AND THRIVING IN THE RAH CWFA IS RELATIVELY LOW - ONLY AROUND
20 PERCENT.

OTHERWISE...A RELATIVELY TIGHT MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT ABOUT THE SFC
FRONT WILL GENERATE A BREEZY GENERALLY WESTERLY SFC WIND (WNW OVER
THE PIEDMONT TO WSW OVER THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN)...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS
SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S
SE. LOWS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SATURDAY...THEN APPROACHING  2 INCHES
BY SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT OF
ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM MONDAY...

DRIER AIR WILL ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST
TO EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC. LATEST HI-RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE ALL RE-DEVELOPMENT WELL EAST OF KFAY
AND KRWI AND THUS DO NOT PLAN ON CARRYING ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE. AS SUCH...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME
MIXING RESULTING IN WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 281130
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON... BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE REGION TODAY
WITH ATTENDANT STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING EWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN OFF THE COAST DURING THEN EVENING.

EVOLVING LINEAR BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT... ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
DYNAMICS... WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS...THAT IS IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER CIN AND STRENGTHENING DOWN COMPONENT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ONCE THIS CONVECTIVE BAND PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...IT
WILL SPELL THE END OF RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE NC PIEDMONT
COUNTIES AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...AS EASTWARD
PUSH OF DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL STABILIZE THE
AIRMASS.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN...BUT EVEN MORE SO ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
COUNTIES WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE APT TO RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
INVOF THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND WITHIN
THE CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL HIGH THETA-E AXIS. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES(SAMPSON-WAYNE-CUMBERLAND-SCOTLAND-HOKE). ANY
STORMS ROOTED IN THE 40-50KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY OF 1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING THUNDER WIND GUSTS AND
EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN RATHER QUICKLY BY OR BEFORE
SUNSET...OWING TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND EASTERN PUSH OF LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR FEED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGING FROM UPPER 80S NORTHWEST TO MID 90S
SE. NOTICEABLY COOLER LESS HUMID AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.



&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SATURDAY...THEN APPROACHING  2 INCHES
BY SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT OF
ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.




&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM MONDAY...

DRIER AIR WILL ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST
TO EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC. LATEST HI-RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE ALL RE-DEVELOPMENT WELL EAST OF KFAY
AND KRWI AND THUS DO NOT PLAN ON CARRYING ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE. AS SUCH...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME
MIXING RESULTING IN WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/DJF
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 281130
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON... BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE REGION TODAY
WITH ATTENDANT STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING EWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN OFF THE COAST DURING THEN EVENING.

EVOLVING LINEAR BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT... ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
DYNAMICS... WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS...THAT IS IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER CIN AND STRENGTHENING DOWN COMPONENT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ONCE THIS CONVECTIVE BAND PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...IT
WILL SPELL THE END OF RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE NC PIEDMONT
COUNTIES AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...AS EASTWARD
PUSH OF DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL STABILIZE THE
AIRMASS.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN...BUT EVEN MORE SO ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
COUNTIES WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE APT TO RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
INVOF THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND WITHIN
THE CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL HIGH THETA-E AXIS. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES(SAMPSON-WAYNE-CUMBERLAND-SCOTLAND-HOKE). ANY
STORMS ROOTED IN THE 40-50KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY OF 1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING THUNDER WIND GUSTS AND
EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN RATHER QUICKLY BY OR BEFORE
SUNSET...OWING TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND EASTERN PUSH OF LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR FEED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGING FROM UPPER 80S NORTHWEST TO MID 90S
SE. NOTICEABLY COOLER LESS HUMID AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.



&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SATURDAY...THEN APPROACHING  2 INCHES
BY SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT OF
ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.




&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM MONDAY...

DRIER AIR WILL ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WEST
TO EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC. LATEST HI-RES
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE ALL RE-DEVELOPMENT WELL EAST OF KFAY
AND KRWI AND THUS DO NOT PLAN ON CARRYING ANY MENTION OF THUNDER
WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE. AS SUCH...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME
MIXING RESULTING IN WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/DJF
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 280642
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON... BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE REGION TODAY
WITH ATTENDANT STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING EWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE COAST DURING THEN EVENING.

EVOLVING LINEAR BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT... ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
DYNAMICS... WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS...THAT IS IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER CIN AND STRENGTHENING DOWN COMPONENT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ONCE THIS CONVECTIVE BAND PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...IT
WILL SPELL THE END OF RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE NC PIEDMONT
COUNTIES AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...AS EASTWARD
PUSH OF DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL STABILIZE THE
AIRMASS.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN...BUT EVEN MORE SO ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
COUNTIES WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE APT TO RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
INVOF THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND WITHIN
THE CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL HIGH THETA-E AXIS. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES(SAMPSON-WAYNE-CUMBERLAND-SCOTLAND-HOKE). ANY
STORMS ROOTED IN THE 40-50KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY OF 1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING THUNDER WIND GUSTS AND
EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN RATHER QUICKLY BY OR BEFORE
SUNSET...OWING TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND EASTERN PUSH OF LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR FEED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGING FROM UPPER 80S NORTHWEST TO MID 90S
SE. NOTICEABLY COOLER LESS HUMID AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.



&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SATURDAY...THEN APPROACHING  2 INCHES
BY SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT OF
ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.




&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...

BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION HAS TENDED TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING BOUNDARY
CIN AND STRENGTHENING DOWN COMPONENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MONITOR HOW THE CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY INCLUDE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER GROUP WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KINT AND KGSO.

DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NC...TOWARD
KFAY AND KRWI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 06Z TAF.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NC...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
DAYTIME MIXING RESULTING IN WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/DJF
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 280642
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON... BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE REGION TODAY
WITH ATTENDANT STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING EWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE COAST DURING THEN EVENING.

EVOLVING LINEAR BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT... ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
DYNAMICS... WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE PREDAWN
HOURS...THAT IS IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER CIN AND STRENGTHENING DOWN COMPONENT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ONCE THIS CONVECTIVE BAND PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...IT
WILL SPELL THE END OF RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE NC PIEDMONT
COUNTIES AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN...AS EASTWARD
PUSH OF DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL STABILIZE THE
AIRMASS.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN...BUT EVEN MORE SO ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
COUNTIES WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE APT TO RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
INVOF THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND WITHIN
THE CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL HIGH THETA-E AXIS. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES(SAMPSON-WAYNE-CUMBERLAND-SCOTLAND-HOKE). ANY
STORMS ROOTED IN THE 40-50KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR COUPLED WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY OF 1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING THUNDER WIND GUSTS AND
EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN RATHER QUICKLY BY OR BEFORE
SUNSET...OWING TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND EASTERN PUSH OF LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR FEED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGING FROM UPPER 80S NORTHWEST TO MID 90S
SE. NOTICEABLY COOLER LESS HUMID AIR BEGINS TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE EAST OVER THE
EAST COAST...KEEPING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S...POSSIBLY EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN
THE NORMAL COOLER SPOTS. IN ADDITION...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
MAINTAINS A DRY COLUMN...WITH PWAT VALUES PROGGED TO HOVER JUST
ABOVE 1 INCH.



&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...NUDGING THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACK TOWARDS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...THE LINGERING FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL WILL ALSO MOVE
CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND LIKELY INLAND BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE (PWATS
RISING BACK OVER 1.5 INCHES BY SATURDAY...THEN APPROACHING  2 INCHES
BY SUNDAY) AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT OF
ALL OF THIS...WILL SHOW PRECIP CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE BY SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S.




&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...

BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION HAS TENDED TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING BOUNDARY
CIN AND STRENGTHENING DOWN COMPONENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MONITOR HOW THE CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY INCLUDE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER GROUP WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KINT AND KGSO.

DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NC...TOWARD
KFAY AND KRWI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 06Z TAF.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NC...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
DAYTIME MIXING RESULTING IN WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/DJF
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRR
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 280500
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
100 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...
BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 815 PM SUNDAY...

A S/W ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OH AND TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH E-SE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE OWING TO
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 45-50KTS. MOST OF THE
SEVERE STORM PARAMETERS FAVOR THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE TRIAD TOWARD THE CLT METRO AREA. AS THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS IS
BEGINNING TO STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...TORNADIC THREAT IS
BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
REMAIN A VIABLE THREAT...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEE HOURS OF MONDAY
MORNING IF STORMS ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN ONCE THEY CROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC.

IF STORMS DO ORGANIZE...WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. BEHIND
THE CONVECTIVE STORMS...MAY SEE PATCHES/AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED
AND CONFINED TO THE SANDHILLS ANTO THE STATE. GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW
IN GENERAL...AND THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
HELPFUL OVERALL IN THEIR FORECASTS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN AND NEAR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TRIAD...AND AHEAD OF THE
COMPLEX OF STORMS...THINK THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...AND SIMPLE DYNAMICS FROM THE ONGOING STORMS...SIMILAR
TO THE LATEST TREND OF RAP FORECASTS...TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONTINUED
PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY INTO AND THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
TAFS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER AND GUSTY
WINDS...SHOWERS AND LESSER GUSTS CURRENTLY TOWARD KRWI. CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MODEST...AND ND COASTAL PLAIN...GIVEN THE FASTER TREND NOTED
IN NWP GUIDANCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT
THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z MON.
INDEED...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL VEER THE SFC FLOW/LIMIT
CONVERGENCE AND AUGMENT DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT (AND LIKELY
CAUSE THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE/MERGE WITH THE PRECEDING LEE
TROUGH)...AND CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE LOWER
60S (AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE) OVER THE PIEDMONT - YIELDING
LITTLE BOUYANCY. TO THE EAST...IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...A RESERVOIR OF
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT
CROSSES THOSE AREAS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE FAVORABLE
DIURNAL FRONTAL TIMING THERE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
BENEATH A LINGERING PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS
OF 7 C/KM. THESE EXPECTED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE - AND
ASSOCIATED LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AT TIME OF
FROPA AROUND 21Z - WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED
STORMS INDEED DEVELOP. THIS RISK WILL BE GREATEST ROUGHLY FROM
GOLDSBORO TO FAYETTEVILLE TO LAURINBURG AND ESPECIALLY POINTS
EAST...TO COASTAL AREAS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S SE. COOLER MON
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.   THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.  IN THE
WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD.  DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY.  HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED
TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING
INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...

BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION HAS TENDED TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING BOUNDARY
CIN AND STRENGTHENING DOWN COMPONENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MONITOR HOW THE CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY INCLUDE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER GROUP WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KINT AND KGSO.

DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NC...TOWARD
KFAY AND KRWI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 06Z TAF.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NC...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
DAYTIME MIXING RESULTING IN WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/DJF
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 280500
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
100 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...
BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 815 PM SUNDAY...

A S/W ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OH AND TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH E-SE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE OWING TO
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 45-50KTS. MOST OF THE
SEVERE STORM PARAMETERS FAVOR THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE TRIAD TOWARD THE CLT METRO AREA. AS THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS IS
BEGINNING TO STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...TORNADIC THREAT IS
BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
REMAIN A VIABLE THREAT...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEE HOURS OF MONDAY
MORNING IF STORMS ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN ONCE THEY CROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC.

IF STORMS DO ORGANIZE...WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. BEHIND
THE CONVECTIVE STORMS...MAY SEE PATCHES/AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED
AND CONFINED TO THE SANDHILLS ANTO THE STATE. GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW
IN GENERAL...AND THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
HELPFUL OVERALL IN THEIR FORECASTS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN AND NEAR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TRIAD...AND AHEAD OF THE
COMPLEX OF STORMS...THINK THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...AND SIMPLE DYNAMICS FROM THE ONGOING STORMS...SIMILAR
TO THE LATEST TREND OF RAP FORECASTS...TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONTINUED
PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY INTO AND THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
TAFS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER AND GUSTY
WINDS...SHOWERS AND LESSER GUSTS CURRENTLY TOWARD KRWI. CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MODEST...AND ND COASTAL PLAIN...GIVEN THE FASTER TREND NOTED
IN NWP GUIDANCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT
THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z MON.
INDEED...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL VEER THE SFC FLOW/LIMIT
CONVERGENCE AND AUGMENT DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT (AND LIKELY
CAUSE THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE/MERGE WITH THE PRECEDING LEE
TROUGH)...AND CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE LOWER
60S (AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE) OVER THE PIEDMONT - YIELDING
LITTLE BOUYANCY. TO THE EAST...IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...A RESERVOIR OF
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT
CROSSES THOSE AREAS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE FAVORABLE
DIURNAL FRONTAL TIMING THERE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
BENEATH A LINGERING PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS
OF 7 C/KM. THESE EXPECTED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE - AND
ASSOCIATED LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AT TIME OF
FROPA AROUND 21Z - WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED
STORMS INDEED DEVELOP. THIS RISK WILL BE GREATEST ROUGHLY FROM
GOLDSBORO TO FAYETTEVILLE TO LAURINBURG AND ESPECIALLY POINTS
EAST...TO COASTAL AREAS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S SE. COOLER MON
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.   THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.  IN THE
WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD.  DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY.  HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED
TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING
INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...

BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD AND INTO CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION HAS TENDED TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING BOUNDARY
CIN AND STRENGTHENING DOWN COMPONENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WILL
MONITOR HOW THE CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY INCLUDE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER GROUP WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KINT AND KGSO.

DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NC...TOWARD
KFAY AND KRWI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THEIR
DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 06Z TAF.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NC...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
DAYTIME MIXING RESULTING IN WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/DJF
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 280214
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1015 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...
BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 815 PM SUNDAY...

A S/W ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH OVER THE LOWER OH AND TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH E-SE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE OWING TO
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 45-50KTS. MOST OF THE
SEVERE STORM PARAMETERS FAVOR THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE TRIAD TOWARD THE CLT METRO AREA. AS THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS IS
BEGINNING TO STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF HEATING...TORNADIC THREAT IS
BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
REMAIN A VIABLE THREAT...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEE HOURS OF MONDAY
MORNING IF STORMS ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN ONCE THEY CROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC.

IF STORMS DO ORGANIZE...WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. BEHIND
THE CONVECTIVE STORMS...MAY SEE PATCHES/AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED
AND CONFINED TO THE SANDHILLS ANTO THE STATE. GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW
IN GENERAL...AND THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
HELPFUL OVERALL IN THEIR FORECASTS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN AND NEAR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TRIAD...AND AHEAD OF THE
COMPLEX OF STORMS...THINK THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...AND SIMPLE DYNAMICS FROM THE ONGOING STORMS...SIMILAR
TO THE LATEST TREND OF RAP FORECASTS...TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONTINUED
PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY INTO AND THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
TAFS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER AND GUSTY
WINDS...SHOWERS AND LESSER GUSTS CURRENTLY TOWARD KRWI. CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MODEST...AND ND COASTAL PLAIN...GIVEN THE FASTER TREND NOTED
IN NWP GUIDANCE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT
THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z MON.
INDEED...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL VEER THE SFC FLOW/LIMIT
CONVERGENCE AND AUGMENT DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT (AND LIKELY
CAUSE THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE/MERGE WITH THE PRECEDING LEE
TROUGH)...AND CONSEQUENTLY CAUSE SFC DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE LOWER
60S (AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE) OVER THE PIEDMONT - YIELDING
LITTLE BOUYANCY. TO THE EAST...IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...A RESERVOIR OF
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE FRONT
CROSSES THOSE AREAS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE FAVORABLE
DIURNAL FRONTAL TIMING THERE WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
BENEATH A LINGERING PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS
OF 7 C/KM. THESE EXPECTED STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST
UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE - AND
ASSOCIATED LONG AND STRAIGHT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT KFAY AT TIME OF
FROPA AROUND 21Z - WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL LIKELY FROM SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED
STORMS INDEED DEVELOP. THIS RISK WILL BE GREATEST ROUGHLY FROM
GOLDSBORO TO FAYETTEVILLE TO LAURINBURG AND ESPECIALLY POINTS
EAST...TO COASTAL AREAS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1425 METERS SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NW TO LOWER-MID 90S SE. COOLER MON
NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 60W NW TO MID-UPPER 60 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

STRONGLY BLOCKED FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.   THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.  IN THE
WAKE OF MONDAY`S SYSTEM...PW DROPS BELOW ONE INCH AND THE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS SETS UP NEARLY OVERHEAD.  DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
WELL INTO THE 50S IN THE PIEDMONT...WITH THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUS...
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SMALL THROUGH THURSDAY.  HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THOUGH ALSO SHIFTING THE TROUGH AXIS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDWEST STATES. WITH AN FRONTAL ZONE/INVERTED
TROUGH LINGERING NEAR THE COAST OR SLOWLY DRIFTING
INLAND....MOISTURE RETURN AND A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
INFLUENCE FROM DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM SUNDAY...

GOOD INSTABILITY REMAINED LATE IN THE EVENING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WHILE A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE.
BASED ON THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS...THE LEADING COMPLEX OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TENDED TO HEAD TOWARD THE BETTER MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES TOWARD UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND JUST
WEST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. SOME PARAMETERS STILL FAVOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION UPSTREAM TO MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE VARIES FROM DRY CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA ON THE RAP MODEL...A STARK CHANGE FROM AFTERNOON RUNS...TO
STILL A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON
THE GUIDANCE TRENDS AND THE KGSO 00Z UPPER-AIR SOUNDING...UPDATED
TAFS TO BE A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC IN CONDITIONS...BUT LEFT STILL
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS WITH A GUSTY WIND GIVEN CONTINUED
INSTABILITY...SURFACE WINDS REMAINING GUSTY ESPECIALLY FROM THE
TRIANGLE WEST...AND ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE IN EVOLVING CONDITIONS.
AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
AND RADAR TRENDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...OVERALL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. WITH MIXING MONDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME 250-290 AND
WITH MODEST GUSTS TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 20KT. A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THEIR DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE 00Z TAF. BEYOND THE 00Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/DJF
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...DJF





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