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000
FXUS62 KRAH 112100
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
400 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST STATES ON FRIDAY... THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER
STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM RESIDES TO OUR SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THIS (AND A LITTLE STIRRING OF THE
WIND)...TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AM EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE
IN THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID 20S FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

...WINTERY MIX EVENT TO OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF NC
FRIDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND LIFT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT DOES SO. COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR WINTER P-TYPES AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT. AS THE
LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST AND DEVELOPS IT WILL DO SO FROM A MORE WEST
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION AND THEREFORE WONT HAVE AS MUCH
TIME TO TAP INTO ATLANTIC MOISTURE AS MAY SOMETIMES BE THE CASE WITH
COASTAL SYSTEMS. THEREFORE MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY LOW AT THIS
TIME AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF US HIGHWAY 1.

LOOKING AT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...PTYPE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 1 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70 SHOULD REMAIN A MOSTLY SNOW
EVENT WITH PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXED IN. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
INCREASE TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS APPROACHING OR
JUST OVER AN INCH OF SNOW. BACK TOWARDS THE TRIANGLE A DUSTING TO A
HALF OF AN INCH IS MORE LIKELY BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS AREA IS
LACKING AND THIS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL BUST ZONE THAT MAY NOT GET
ANY ACCUMULATION AT ALL. IF THE FORECAST WERE TO BUST ON THE HIGH
SIDE IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST OR IN ANY
AREAS OF POTENTIAL SNOW BANDING WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE HIGHER
AT TIMES. THESE WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO BE EVALUATED IN
DETAIL UNTIL THE EVENT BEGINS TO UNFOLD.

SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 AND EAST OF US 1 A WARM NOSE DEVELOPS IN THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MORE OF A SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN EVENT WITH
SOME SNOW AT THE ONSET. WHILE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA...THE TIMING WINDOW WILL BE SMALL FOR THIS TO OCCUR AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM AFTER THE ONSET OF PRECIP AND THE TIME
SPENT BELOW FREEZING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTER
18Z THESE AREAS SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN. THEREFORE IMPACTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD BE LIMITED.

TIMING OF THE EVENT WILL BEGIN AFTER 12Z WITH FIRST RETURNS ON RADAR
COMING INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH MAIN ONSET OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IN THE HOURS BETWEEN 15-21Z. PRECIPITATION
OF ALL TYPES SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP IN THE EAST NO LATER THAN 00Z
SATURDAY.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY BEGINNING 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY FOR MOST COUNTIES
EAST OF HIGHWAY 1...MAINLY FOR POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN
INCH OR GREATER IN THE NORTHEAST AND A POTENTIAL GLAZE OF FREEZING
RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF EXTENDING THE ADVISORY BEYOND 0Z SATURDAY FOR LINGERING
IMPACTS ON THE ROADS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM THURSDAY...

BITTERLY COLD AIR THIS WEEKEND WITH A WINTRY WEATHER THREAT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE POTENTIAL WINTER
EVENT FOR MON/TUE IS LOW... SO STAY TUNED.

SAT/SUN: AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS SAT WILL INTRODUCE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A
PLUNGE IN THICKNESSES TO AROUND 80 M BELOW NORMAL... AS A DENSE
POLAR SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. THE CORE OF THE
HIGH WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY TO THE MIDATLANTIC BY SUN EVENING WHILE EXTENDING DOWN
THROUGH NC. EXPECT DECENT SUNSHINE WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SCATTERED
FLAT CU SAT AFTERNOON RESULTING FROM MIXING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT... AND INCREASING MID CLOUDS
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THE THICKNESSES PROJECTED BY
THE MODELS ALONG WITH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS SAT OF 29-
38 (HOLDING AT OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64) AND 28-
34... WITH LOWS AROUND 9 TO 17 SAT NIGHT. THE THICKNESS CLIMATOLOGY
INDICATES THAT SINGLE DIGIT LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT... BUT WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF SOME MIXING PERSISTING OVERNIGHT... HAVE OPTED ON
THE HIGHER END OF CLIMATOLOGY. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 20-25 RANGE AS
THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS NE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND THICKEN FROM THE WEST.

MON/TUE: IMPORTANT MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST REGARDING THE DETAILS
OF THE PRECIP EVENT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEY AGREE ON A POTENT AND
DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING TROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MON...
THROUGH THE GULF STATES AND TN VALLEY MON NIGHT... AND TAKING ON A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MIDATLANTIC
REGION TUE... AND THEY ALL AGREE THAT WE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY GET PRECIP
OF SOME KIND... ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE WHEN PRECIP MAY
BE HEAVY. THE GFS IS SLOWER (BY ABOUT 6 HRS) AND DEEPER THAN THE
ECMWF STARTING AS EARLY AS MON MORNING... BUT ITS PARENT HIGH TO OUR
NE IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE CANADIAN BY CONTRAST IS EVEN
SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS ALSO DON`T
AGREE ON THE PATTERN OF CYCLOGENESIS... WITH NO REAL CONSENSUS AS TO
WHETHER THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A MILLER-A OR MILLER-B TYPE EVENT.
THESE DIFFERENCES ALL HAVE MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE AND RESULTING P-TYPES... AND
UNFORTUNATELY... WE CANNOT PROVIDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DETAILS AT
THIS TIME WITH ANY AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER... MOST MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR A LOW TRACK WELL INLAND... EVEN WITH A MILLER-
B SECONDARY LOW... WHICH RAISES CONFIDENCE THAT THE EASTERN CWA WILL
SEE A SWIFT TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY LATE MON. CONSIDERING THAT THE
PRECEDING POLAR AIR MASS WILL HAVE BROUGHT VERY COLD TEMPS AND EVEN
COLDER DEWPOINTS... THE STABLE AIR MAY PROVE MORE DIFFICULT TO
DISLODGE OVER THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS OF THE NW
PIEDMONT... YIELDING A LONGER DURATION WINTER EVENT THERE. MODELS
ALSO TEND TO AGREE ON AN OVERALL PATTERN OF LIGHTER PRECIP ON MONDAY
WITH WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER LIFT AND GREATER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATING A HEAVY PRECIP THREAT FOR LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE. BUT A LOT CAN CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS... SO EVERYONE SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS.
TEMPS SHOULD START TO WARM UP INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S MON... INTO
THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUE AS WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

WED/THU: PRECIP SHOULD END BY TUE NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD OUT OF THE EASTERN STATES WED... WITH AN INCOMING
MID LEVEL RIDGE GENERATING RISING HEIGHTS FOR THU... AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. EXPECT FAIR SKIES... DRY WEATHER...
AND A TREND OF TEMPS UP CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. WEST TO NW WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY WITH SOME GUSTING UP TO 15 KTS OR SO. GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN
AFTER SUNSET. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT EXPECT CEILINGS TO INITIALLY COME IN AROUND 5 KFT
BUT THEN DROP TO 1500 FEET OR SO AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS JUST BEFORE
15Z AT KFAY AND THEN OVERSPREADS KRDU AND KRWI. TRIAD SITES MAY STAY
VFR WITH THE CEILINGS AS PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE BUT SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES COULD CREEP IN NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION FOR KFAY COULD BE IN THE FORM OF A WINTERY MIX WITH
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM UP ENOUGH TO AVOID FREEZING RAIN. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORM OF PRECIPITATION AT KRWI AND
KRDU WITH SOME SLEET POTENTIALLY MIXED IN.

LONG TERM: ADVERSE CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SAT
FEB 13TH AND SUN FEB 14TH AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY:


       REC    YR     REC    YR
       LOW         LOW MAX
----------------------------------------------
GSO:
02/13   11   1955     31   1986
02/14    6   1905     22   1914

RDU:
02/13    4   1899     10   1899
02/14   -2   1899     27   1916

FAY:
02/13   14   1973     32   1955
02/14   12   1968     33   1916

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
NCZ010-011-026>028-041>043-077-078-085-086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/KRD
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 112030
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST STATES ON FRIDAY... THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER
STARTING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
RESIDES TO OUR SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY BUT PLENTY OF COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE AS
THICKNESSES SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH. THIS PUTS
DAYTIME HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
BIT BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE GUSTING TO NEAR 15 KTS OR SO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE
NORTH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT LIMITING
COOLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...MID 20S IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

...WINTERY MIX EVENT TO OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF NC
FRIDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND LIFT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT DOES SO. COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR WINTER P-TYPES AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT. AS THE
LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST AND DEVELOPS IT WILL DO SO FROM A MORE WEST
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION AND THEREFORE WONT HAVE AS MUCH
TIME TO TAP INTO ATLANTIC MOISTURE AS MAY SOMETIMES BE THE CASE WITH
COASTAL SYSTEMS. THEREFORE MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY LOW AT THIS
TIME AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF US HIGHWAY 1.

LOOKING AT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...PTYPE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 1 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70 SHOULD REMAIN A MOSTLY SNOW
EVENT WITH PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXED IN. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
INCREASE TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS APPROACHING OR
JUST OVER AN INCH OF SNOW. BACK TOWARDS THE TRIANGLE A DUSTING TO A
HALF OF AN INCH IS MORE LIKELY BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS AREA IS
LACKING AND THIS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL BUST ZONE THAT MAY NOT GET
ANY ACCUMULATION AT ALL. IF THE FORECAST WERE TO BUST ON THE HIGH
SIDE IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST OR IN ANY
AREAS OF POTENTIAL SNOW BANDING WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE HIGHER
AT TIMES. THESE WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO BE EVALUATED IN
DETAIL UNTIL THE EVENT BEGINS TO UNFOLD.

SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 AND EAST OF US 1 A WARM NOSE DEVELOPS IN THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MORE OF A SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN EVENT WITH
SOME SNOW AT THE ONSET. WHILE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA...THE TIMING WINDOW WILL BE SMALL FOR THIS TO OCCUR AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM AFTER THE ONSET OF PRECIP AND THE TIME
SPENT BELOW FREEZING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTER
18Z THESE AREAS SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN. THEREFORE IMPACTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD BE LIMITED.

TIMING OF THE EVENT WILL BEGIN AFTER 12Z WITH FIRST RETURNS ON RADAR
COMING INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH MAIN ONSET OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IN THE HOURS BETWEEN 15-21Z. PRECIPITATION
OF ALL TYPES SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP IN THE EAST NO LATER THAN 00Z
SATURDAY.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY BEGINNING 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY FOR MOST COUNTIES
EAST OF HIGHWAY 1...MAINLY FOR POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN
INCH OR GREATER IN THE NORTHEAST AND A POTENTIAL GLAZE OF FREEZING
RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF EXTENDING THE ADVISORY BEYOND 0Z SATURDAY FOR LINGERING
IMPACTS ON THE ROADS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM THURSDAY...

BITTERLY COLD AIR THIS WEEKEND WITH A WINTRY WEATHER THREAT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE POTENTIAL WINTER
EVENT FOR MON/TUE IS LOW... SO STAY TUNED.

SAT/SUN: AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS SAT WILL INTRODUCE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A
PLUNGE IN THICKNESSES TO AROUND 80 M BELOW NORMAL... AS A DENSE
POLAR SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. THE CORE OF THE
HIGH WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY TO THE MIDATLANTIC BY SUN EVENING WHILE EXTENDING DOWN
THROUGH NC. EXPECT DECENT SUNSHINE WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SCATTERED
FLAT CU SAT AFTERNOON RESULTING FROM MIXING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
BENEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT... AND INCREASING MID CLOUDS
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THE THICKNESSES PROJECTED BY
THE MODELS ALONG WITH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS SAT OF 29-
38 (HOLDING AT OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64) AND 28-
34... WITH LOWS AROUND 9 TO 17 SAT NIGHT. THE THICKNESS CLIMATOLOGY
INDICATES THAT SINGLE DIGIT LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT... BUT WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF SOME MIXING PERSISTING OVERNIGHT... HAVE OPTED ON
THE HIGHER END OF CLIMATOLOGY. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE 20-25 RANGE AS
THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS NE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND THICKEN FROM THE WEST.

MON/TUE: IMPORTANT MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST REGARDING THE DETAILS
OF THE PRECIP EVENT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEY AGREE ON A POTENT AND
DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING TROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MON...
THROUGH THE GULF STATES AND TN VALLEY MON NIGHT... AND TAKING ON A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MIDATLANTIC
REGION TUE... AND THEY ALL AGREE THAT WE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY GET PRECIP
OF SOME KIND... ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE WHEN PRECIP MAY
BE HEAVY. THE GFS IS SLOWER (BY ABOUT 6 HRS) AND DEEPER THAN THE
ECMWF STARTING AS EARLY AS MON MORNING... BUT ITS PARENT HIGH TO OUR
NE IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE CANADIAN BY CONTRAST IS EVEN
SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE MODELS ALSO DON`T
AGREE ON THE PATTERN OF CYCLOGENESIS... WITH NO REAL CONSENSUS AS TO
WHETHER THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A MILLER-A OR MILLER-B TYPE EVENT.
THESE DIFFERENCES ALL HAVE MAJOR RAMIFICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE
VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE AND RESULTING P-TYPES... AND
UNFORTUNATELY... WE CANNOT PROVIDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DETAILS AT
THIS TIME WITH ANY AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER... MOST MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR A LOW TRACK WELL INLAND... EVEN WITH A MILLER-
B SECONDARY LOW... WHICH RAISES CONFIDENCE THAT THE EASTERN CWA WILL
SEE A SWIFT TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY LATE MON. CONSIDERING THAT THE
PRECEDING POLAR AIR MASS WILL HAVE BROUGHT VERY COLD TEMPS AND EVEN
COLDER DEWPOINTS... THE STABLE AIR MAY PROVE MORE DIFFICULT TO
DISLODGE OVER THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS OF THE NW
PIEDMONT... YIELDING A LONGER DURATION WINTER EVENT THERE. MODELS
ALSO TEND TO AGREE ON AN OVERALL PATTERN OF LIGHTER PRECIP ON MONDAY
WITH WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT FOLLOWED BY STRONGER LIFT AND GREATER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATING A HEAVY PRECIP THREAT FOR LATE MON
NIGHT INTO TUE. BUT A LOT CAN CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS... SO EVERYONE SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS.
TEMPS SHOULD START TO WARM UP INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S MON... INTO
THE 40S TO LOW 50S TUE AS WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

WED/THU: PRECIP SHOULD END BY TUE NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD OUT OF THE EASTERN STATES WED... WITH AN INCOMING
MID LEVEL RIDGE GENERATING RISING HEIGHTS FOR THU... AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. EXPECT FAIR SKIES... DRY WEATHER...
AND A TREND OF TEMPS UP CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. WEST TO NW WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY WITH SOME GUSTING UP TO 15 KTS OR SO. GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN
AFTER SUNSET. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT EXPECT CEILINGS TO INITIALLY COME IN AROUND 5 KFT
BUT THEN DROP TO 1500 FEET OR SO AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS JUST BEFORE
15Z AT KFAY AND THEN OVERSPREADS KRDU AND KRWI. TRIAD SITES MAY STAY
VFR WITH THE CEILINGS AS PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE BUT SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES COULD CREEP IN NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION FOR KFAY COULD BE IN THE FORM OF A WINTERY MIX WITH
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM UP ENOUGH TO AVOID FREEZING RAIN. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORM OF PRECIPITATION AT KRWI AND
KRDU WITH SOME SLEET POTENTIALLY MIXED IN.

LONG TERM: ADVERSE CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SAT
FEB 13TH AND SUN FEB 14TH AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY:


       REC    YR     REC    YR
       LOW         LOW MAX
----------------------------------------------
GSO:
02/13   11   1955     31   1986
02/14    6   1905     22   1914

RDU:
02/13    4   1899     10   1899
02/14   -2   1899     27   1916

FAY:
02/13   14   1973     32   1955
02/14   12   1968     33   1916


&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 112022
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
322 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
CENTRAL NC TODAY THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SEND SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER SEASON INTO CENTRAL NC FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
RESIDES TO OUR SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY BUT PLENTY OF COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE AS
THICKNESSES SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH. THIS PUTS
DAYTIME HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
BIT BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE GUSTING TO NEAR 15 KTS OR SO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE
NORTH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT LIMITING
COOLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...MID 20S IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

...WINTERY MIX EVENT TO OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF NC
FRIDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND LIFT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT DOES SO. COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR WINTER P-TYPES AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT. AS THE
LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST AND DEVELOPS IT WILL DO SO FROM A MORE WEST
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION AND THEREFORE WONT HAVE AS MUCH
TIME TO TAP INTO ATLANTIC MOISTURE AS MAY SOMETIMES BE THE CASE WITH
COASTAL SYSTEMS. THEREFORE MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY LOW AT THIS
TIME AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF US HIGHWAY 1.

LOOKING AT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...PTYPE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 1 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 70 SHOULD REMAIN A MOSTLY SNOW
EVENT WITH PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXED IN. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
INCREASE TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS APPROACHING OR
JUST OVER AN INCH OF SNOW. BACK TOWARDS THE TRIANGLE A DUSTING TO A
HALF OF AN INCH IS MORE LIKELY BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS AREA IS
LACKING AND THIS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL BUST ZONE THAT MAY NOT GET
ANY ACCUMULATION AT ALL. IF THE FORECAST WERE TO BUST ON THE HIGH
SIDE IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST OR IN ANY
AREAS OF POTENTIAL SNOW BANDING WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE HIGHER
AT TIMES. THESE WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO BE EVALUATED IN DETAIL
UNTIL THE EVENT BEGINS TO UNFOLD.

SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 AND EAST OF US 1 A WARM NOSE DEVELOPS IN THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MORE OF A SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN EVENT WITH
SOME SNOW AT THE ONSET. WHILE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS
AREA...THE TIMING WINDOW WILL BE SMALL FOR THIS TO OCCUR AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM AFTER THE ONSET OF PRECIP AND THE TIME
SPENT BELOW FREEZING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO A COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTER
18Z THESE AREAS SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN. THEREFORE IMPACTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD BE LIMITED.

TIMING OF THE EVENT WILL BEGIN AFTER 12Z WITH FIRST RETURNS ON RADAR
COMING INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH MAIN ONSET OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING IN THE HOURS BETWEEN 15-21Z. PRECIPITATION OF
ALL TYPES SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP IN THE EAST NO LATER THAN 00Z
SATURDAY.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY BEGINNING 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY FOR MOST COUNTIES
EAST OF HIGHWAY 1...MAINLY FOR POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN
INCH OR GREATER IN THE NORTHEAST AND A POTENTIAL GLAZE OF FREEZING
RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF EXTENDING THE ADVISORY BEYOND 0Z SATURDAY FOR LINGERING
IMPACTS ON THE ROADS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...

...BITTERLY COLD AIR THIS WEEKEND WITH A WINTRY WEATHER THREAT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AS THE DEPARTING SYSTEM LIFTS WELL OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA... WHILE A MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST U.S. TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY... BUT COLD WEEKEND
ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY... AT LEAST
TAKING AWAY THE ADDED CHILLY BREEZE. WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND (BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 1230 METERS ON SUNDAY MORNING) THINK TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA... WITH HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY GENERALLY FREEZING OR BELOW FOR MOST... IF NOT ALL... OF THE
CWA. EXPECT HIGH ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO GENERALLY THE LOWER 30S. LOW SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH A THREAT OF
WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW S/W ENERGY TRACKING
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE
AMPLIFYING. THIS SHOULD HELP A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S... WITH PRECIP SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NC IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...
THE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH (WHICH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY) WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER... THERE SHOULD BE
AMPLE COLD DRY AIR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT EITHER SNOW OR SLEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING... FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO INDEED SEE PRECIP (BEST
CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT). HOWEVER... WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT S/W ENERGY THAT HAS NOT MOVED ONSHORE YET ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S... WHICH HAS LED TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM FROM RUN TO RUN ALONG WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODELS
AND THE ENSEMBLES... THOUGH IT APPEARS WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE OF
DAMMING DEVELOP ON MONDAY (IN-SITU POSSIBLY). HOW AMPLIFIED THE
TROUGH IS AND THE TRACK AND CONFIGURATION OF THE SURFACE LOW/LOWS
WILL GREATLY AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP WE SEE ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY (OUTSIDE OF THE INITIAL LEAD PRECIP WHICH WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW OR SLEET). WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE FORECAST TO
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED AREAS FOR WINTER PRECIP... WITH MOST
LOCATIONS TURNING TO ALL RAIN BY MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE TIMING
ISSUES THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW FAST THE PRECIP
WILL EXIT... AND IF WE COULD SEE ANY WRAP AROUND WINTER PRECIP. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS MODERATING ON TUESDAY... WITH ONLY
ONE P-TYPE... RAIN. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY.

HIGH AND LOW TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM... THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S FOR MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MID NEXT WEEK... WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S... LOWS IN
THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. WEST TO NW WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY WITH SOME GUSTING UP TO 15 KTS OR SO. GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN
AFTER SUNSET. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT EXPECT CEILINGS TO INITIALLY COME IN AROUND 5 KFT
BUT THEN DROP TO 1500 FEET OR SO AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS JUST BEFORE
15Z AT KFAY AND THEN OVERSPREADS KRDU AND KRWI. TRIAD SITES MAY STAY
VFR WITH THE CEILINGS AS PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE BUT SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES COULD CREEP IN NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION FOR KFAY COULD BE IN THE FORM OF A WINTERY MIX WITH
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM UP ENOUGH TO AVOID FREEZING RAIN. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORM OF PRECIPITATION AT KRWI AND
KRDU WITH SOME SLEET POTENTIALLY MIXED IN.

LONG TERM: ADVERSE CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SAT
FEB 13TH AND SUN FEB 14TH AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY:


       REC    YR     REC    YR
       LOW         LOW MAX
----------------------------------------------
GSO:
02/13   11   1955     31   1986
02/14    6   1905     22   1914

RDU:
02/13    4   1899     10   1899
02/14   -2   1899     27   1916

FAY:
02/13   14   1973     32   1955
02/14   12   1968     33   1916


&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...WFO RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 111805
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
105 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
CENTRAL NC TODAY THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SEND SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER SEASON INTO CENTRAL NC FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
RESIDES TO OUR SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY BUT PLENTY OF COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE AS
THICKNESSES SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH. THIS PUTS
DAYTIME HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
BIT BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE GUSTING TO NEAR 15 KTS OR SO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE
NORTH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT LIMITING
COOLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...MID 20S IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...

...POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR A WINTRY MIX TO OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF CENTRAL NC FRIDAY...

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES OF NC FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SEWD MOVING UPPER
DISTURBANCE. THIS UPPER FEATURE SHOULD INDUCE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SC COAST AND MOVE NEWD ALONG/OFFSHORE
OF THE NC COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

RH CROSS SECTIONS DEPICT PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FAVORED ICE
NUCLEATION GROWTH ZONE THOUGH MOISTURE INITIALLY IS LACKING IN THE
LOWER LAYERS OF THE COLUMN. THESE LAYERS EVENTUALLY MOISTEN THANKS
TO PRECIP FALLING THROUGH THE COLUMN ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AND
MOIST AIR ADVECTION. BY MID-LATE MORNING...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST TO GENERATE PRECIP.

LIFT WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A COUPLE OF SOURCES: ONE BEING LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE OTHER INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE NOSE OF A 130KT JET. THIS LIFT APPEARS TO BE
MAXIMIZED  OVER THE REGION LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY START OUT AS LIGHT SNOW. AS WARMER AIR STARTS TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH... SHOULD SEE THE SNOW MIX WITH
SLEET THEN EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO A SLEET/RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY. AT THIS TIME EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
OCCUR OVER SECTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 10 AM AND 4 PM. OVER THE REST OF THE
PIEDMONT...EXPECTING JUST A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
FLURRIES.

IMPACTS CURRENTLY WILL BE LIMITED TO A QUICK ACCUMULATION ON
UNTREATED ROADS/PAVEMENTS WITH AMOUNTS VARYING FROM A DUSTING OVER
THE EASTERN SANDHILLS...EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...TO UP TO AN INCH OVER SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON PRECIP COVERAGE AND TYPE. HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN THE EAST A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
IN ANTICIPATION OF BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY LOWER
30S NE TO UPEPR 30S SW.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT WEST-EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE NC COAST. NORTH-NWLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT AN ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL
NC FRIDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY EARLY SATURDAY LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID
20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...

...BITTERLY COLD AIR THIS WEEKEND WITH A WINTRY WEATHER THREAT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AS THE DEPARTING SYSTEM LIFTS WELL OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA... WHILE A MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST U.S. TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY... BUT COLD WEEKEND
ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY... AT LEAST
TAKING AWAY THE ADDED CHILLY BREEZE. WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND (BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 1230 METERS ON SUNDAY MORNING) THINK TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA... WITH HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY GENERALLY FREEZING OR BELOW FOR MOST... IF NOT ALL... OF THE
CWA. EXPECT HIGH ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO GENERALLY THE LOWER 30S. LOW SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH A THREAT OF
WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW S/W ENERGY TRACKING
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE
AMPLIFYING. THIS SHOULD HELP A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S... WITH PRECIP SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NC IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...
THE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH (WHICH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY) WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER... THERE SHOULD BE
AMPLE COLD DRY AIR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT EITHER SNOW OR SLEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING... FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO INDEED SEE PRECIP (BEST
CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT). HOWEVER... WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT S/W ENERGY THAT HAS NOT MOVED ONSHORE YET ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S... WHICH HAS LED TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM FROM RUN TO RUN ALONG WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODELS
AND THE ENSEMBLES... THOUGH IT APPEARS WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE OF
DAMMING DEVELOP ON MONDAY (IN-SITU POSSIBLY). HOW AMPLIFIED THE
TROUGH IS AND THE TRACK AND CONFIGURATION OF THE SURFACE LOW/LOWS
WILL GREATLY AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP WE SEE ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY (OUTSIDE OF THE INITIAL LEAD PRECIP WHICH WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW OR SLEET). WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE FORECAST TO
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED AREAS FOR WINTER PRECIP... WITH MOST
LOCATIONS TURNING TO ALL RAIN BY MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE TIMING
ISSUES THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW FAST THE PRECIP
WILL EXIT... AND IF WE COULD SEE ANY WRAP AROUND WINTER PRECIP. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS MODERATING ON TUESDAY... WITH ONLY
ONE P-TYPE... RAIN. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY.

HIGH AND LOW TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM... THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S FOR MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MID NEXT WEEK... WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S... LOWS IN
THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. WEST TO NW WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY WITH SOME GUSTING UP TO 15 KTS OR SO. GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN
AFTER SUNSET. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT EXPECT CEILINGS TO INITIALLY COME IN AROUND 5 KFT
BUT THEN DROP TO 1500 FEET OR SO AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS JUST BEFORE
15Z AT KFAY AND THEN OVERSPREADS KRDU AND KRWI. TRIAD SITES MAY STAY
VFR WITH THE CEILINGS AS PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE BUT SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES COULD CREEP IN NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION FOR KFAY COULD BE IN THE FORM OF A WINTERY MIX WITH
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM UP ENOUGH TO AVOID FREEZING RAIN. FURTHER
NORTH...SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORM OF PRECIPITATION AT KRWI AND
KRDU WITH SOME SLEET POTENTIALLY MIXED IN.

LONG TERM: ADVERSE CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SAT
FEB 13TH AND SUN FEB 14TH AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY:


       REC    YR     REC    YR
       LOW         LOW MAX
----------------------------------------------
GSO:
02/13   11   1955     31   1986
02/14    6   1905     22   1914

RDU:
02/13    4   1899     10   1899
02/14   -2   1899     27   1916

FAY:
02/13   14   1973     32   1955
02/14   12   1968     33   1916


&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...WFO RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 111522
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1022 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
CENTRAL NC TODAY THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SEND SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER SEASON INTO CENTRAL NC FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
RESIDES TO OUR SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY BUT PLENTY OF COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE AS
THICKNESSES SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH. THIS PUTS
DAYTIME HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
BIT BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE GUSTING TO NEAR 15 KTS OR SO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE
NORTH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT LIMITING
COOLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...MID 20S IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...

...POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR A WINTRY MIX TO OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF CENTRAL NC FRIDAY...

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES OF NC FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SEWD MOVING UPPER
DISTURBANCE. THIS UPPER FEATURE SHOULD INDUCE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SC COAST AND MOVE NEWD ALONG/OFFSHORE
OF THE NC COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

RH CROSS SECTIONS DEPICT PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FAVORED ICE
NUCLEATION GROWTH ZONE THOUGH MOISTURE INITIALLY IS LACKING IN THE
LOWER LAYERS OF THE COLUMN. THESE LAYERS EVENTUALLY MOISTEN THANKS
TO PRECIP FALLING THROUGH THE COLUMN ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AND
MOIST AIR ADVECTION. BY MID-LATE MORNING...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST TO GENERATE PRECIP.

LIFT WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A COUPLE OF SOURCES: ONE BEING LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE OTHER INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE NOSE OF A 130KT JET. THIS LIFT APPEARS TO BE
MAXIMIZED  OVER THE REGION LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY START OUT AS LIGHT SNOW. AS WARMER AIR STARTS TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH... SHOULD SEE THE SNOW MIX WITH
SLEET THEN EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO A SLEET/RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY. AT THIS TIME EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
OCCUR OVER SECTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 10 AM AND 4 PM. OVER THE REST OF THE
PIEDMONT...EXPECTING JUST A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
FLURRIES.

IMPACTS CURRENTLY WILL BE LIMITED TO A QUICK ACCUMULATION ON
UNTREATED ROADS/PAVEMENTS WITH AMOUNTS VARYING FROM A DUSTING OVER
THE EASTERN SANDHILLS...EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...TO UP TO AN INCH OVER SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON PRECIP COVERAGE AND TYPE. HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN THE EAST A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
IN ANTICIPATION OF BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY LOWER
30S NE TO UPEPR 30S SW.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT WEST-EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE NC COAST. NORTH-NWLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT AN ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL
NC FRIDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY EARLY SATURDAY LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID
20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...

...BITTERLY COLD AIR THIS WEEKEND WITH A WINTRY WEATHER THREAT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AS THE DEPARTING SYSTEM LIFTS WELL OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA... WHILE A MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST U.S. TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY... BUT COLD WEEKEND
ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY... AT LEAST
TAKING AWAY THE ADDED CHILLY BREEZE. WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND (BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 1230 METERS ON SUNDAY MORNING) THINK TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA... WITH HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY GENERALLY FREEZING OR BELOW FOR MOST... IF NOT ALL... OF THE
CWA. EXPECT HIGH ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO GENERALLY THE LOWER 30S. LOW SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH A THREAT OF
WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW S/W ENERGY TRACKING
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE
AMPLIFYING. THIS SHOULD HELP A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S... WITH PRECIP SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NC IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...
THE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH (WHICH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY) WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER... THERE SHOULD BE
AMPLE COLD DRY AIR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT EITHER SNOW OR SLEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING... FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO INDEED SEE PRECIP (BEST
CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT). HOWEVER... WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT S/W ENERGY THAT HAS NOT MOVED ONSHORE YET ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S... WHICH HAS LED TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM FROM RUN TO RUN ALONG WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODELS
AND THE ENSEMBLES... THOUGH IT APPEARS WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE OF
DAMMING DEVELOP ON MONDAY (IN-SITU POSSIBLY). HOW AMPLIFIED THE
TROUGH IS AND THE TRACK AND CONFIGURATION OF THE SURFACE LOW/LOWS
WILL GREATLY AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP WE SEE ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY (OUTSIDE OF THE INITIAL LEAD PRECIP WHICH WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW OR SLEET). WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE FORECAST TO
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED AREAS FOR WINTER PRECIP... WITH MOST
LOCATIONS TURNING TO ALL RAIN BY MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE TIMING
ISSUES THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW FAST THE PRECIP
WILL EXIT... AND IF WE COULD SEE ANY WRAP AROUND WINTER PRECIP. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS MODERATING ON TUESDAY... WITH ONLY
ONE P-TYPE... RAIN. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY.

HIGH AND LOW TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM... THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S FOR MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MID NEXT WEEK... WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S... LOWS IN
THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS EXPECT
IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI WHERE EARLY MORNING GUSTS 14-18KTS MAY OCCUR.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING LOW END VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO CENTRAL
NC...ESPECIALLY KRWI AND KFAY ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KRWI...AND KFAY. THE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY.

ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO CENTRAL NC BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH
GUSTS 20-25KTS HIGHLY PROBABLE. THE NEXT THREAT FOR ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE U.S.

&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SAT
FEB 13TH AND SUN FEB 14TH AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY:


       REC    YR     REC    YR
       LOW         LOW MAX
----------------------------------------------
GSO:
02/13   11   1955     31   1986
02/14    6   1905     22   1914

RDU:
02/13    4   1899     10   1899
02/14   -2   1899     27   1916

FAY:
02/13   14   1973     32   1955
02/14   12   1968     33   1916


&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS
CLIMATE...WFO RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 111514
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1015 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
CENTRAL NC TODAY THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SEND SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER SEASON INTO CENTRAL NC FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
RESIDES TO OUR SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY BUT PLENTY OF COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE AS
THICKNESSES SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH. THIS PUTS
DAYTIME HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
BIT BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE GUSTING TO NEAR 15 KTS OR SO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE
NORTH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT LIMITING
COOLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...MID 20S IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...

POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR A WINTRY MIX TO OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF CENTRAL NC FRIDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES OF NC FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SEWD MOVING UPPER
DISTURBANCE. THIS UPPER FEATURE SHOULD INDUCE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SC COAST AND MOVE NEWD ALONG/OFFSHORE
OF THE NC COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

RH CROSS SECTIONS DEPICT PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FAVORED ICE
NUCLEATION GROWTH ZONE THOUGH MOISTURE INITIALLY IS LACKING IN THE
LOWER LAYERS OF THE COLUMN. THESE LAYERS EVENTUALLY MOISTEN THANKS
TO PRECIP FALLING THROUGH THE COLUMN ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AND
MOIST AIR ADVECTION. BY MID-LATE MORNING...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST TO GENERATE PRECIP.

LIFT WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A COUPLE OF SOURCES: ONE BEING LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE OTHER INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE NOSE OF A 130KT JET. THIS LIFT APPEARS TO BE
MAXIMIZED  OVER THE REGION LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY START OUT AS LIGHT SNOW. AS WARMER AIR STARTS TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH... SHOULD SEE THE SNOW MIX WITH
SLEET THEN EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO A SLEET/RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY. AT THIS TIME EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
OCCUR OVER SECTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 10 AM AND 4 PM. OVER THE REST OF THE
PIEDMONT...EXPECTING JUST A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
FLURRIES.

IMPACTS CURRENTLY WILL BE LIMITED TO A QUICK ACCUMULATION ON
UNTREATED ROADS/PAVEMENTS WITH AMOUNTS VARYING FROM A DUSTING OVER
THE EASTERN SANDHILLS...EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...TO UP TO AN INCH OVER SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON PRECIP COVERAGE AND TYPE. HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN THE EAST A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
IN ANTICIPATION OF BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY LOWER
30S NE TO UPEPR 30S SW.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT WEST-EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE NC COAST. NORTH-NWLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT AN ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL
NC FRIDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY EARLY SATURDAY LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID
20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...

...BITTERLY COLD AIR THIS WEEKEND WITH A WINTRY WEATHER THREAT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AS THE DEPARTING SYSTEM LIFTS WELL OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA... WHILE A MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST U.S. TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY... BUT COLD WEEKEND
ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY... AT LEAST
TAKING AWAY THE ADDED CHILLY BREEZE. WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND (BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 1230 METERS ON SUNDAY MORNING) THINK TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA... WITH HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY GENERALLY FREEZING OR BELOW FOR MOST... IF NOT ALL... OF THE
CWA. EXPECT HIGH ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO GENERALLY THE LOWER 30S. LOW SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH A THREAT OF
WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW S/W ENERGY TRACKING
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE
AMPLIFYING. THIS SHOULD HELP A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S... WITH PRECIP SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NC IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...
THE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH (WHICH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY) WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER... THERE SHOULD BE
AMPLE COLD DRY AIR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT EITHER SNOW OR SLEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING... FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO INDEED SEE PRECIP (BEST
CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT). HOWEVER... WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT S/W ENERGY THAT HAS NOT MOVED ONSHORE YET ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S... WHICH HAS LED TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM FROM RUN TO RUN ALONG WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODELS
AND THE ENSEMBLES... THOUGH IT APPEARS WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE OF
DAMMING DEVELOP ON MONDAY (IN-SITU POSSIBLY). HOW AMPLIFIED THE
TROUGH IS AND THE TRACK AND CONFIGURATION OF THE SURFACE LOW/LOWS
WILL GREATLY AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP WE SEE ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY (OUTSIDE OF THE INITIAL LEAD PRECIP WHICH WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW OR SLEET). WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE FORECAST TO
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED AREAS FOR WINTER PRECIP... WITH MOST
LOCATIONS TURNING TO ALL RAIN BY MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE TIMING
ISSUES THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW FAST THE PRECIP
WILL EXIT... AND IF WE COULD SEE ANY WRAP AROUND WINTER PRECIP. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS MODERATING ON TUESDAY... WITH ONLY
ONE P-TYPE... RAIN. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY.

HIGH AND LOW TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM... THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S FOR MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MID NEXT WEEK... WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S... LOWS IN
THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS EXPECT
IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI WHERE EARLY MORNING GUSTS 14-18KTS MAY OCCUR.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING LOW END VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO CENTRAL
NC...ESPECIALLY KRWI AND KFAY ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KRWI...AND KFAY. THE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY.

ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO CENTRAL NC BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH
GUSTS 20-25KTS HIGHLY PROBABLE. THE NEXT THREAT FOR ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE U.S.

&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SAT
FEB 13TH AND SUN FEB 14TH AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY:


       REC    YR     REC    YR
       LOW         LOW MAX
----------------------------------------------
GSO:
02/13   11   1955     31   1986
02/14    6   1905     22   1914

RDU:
02/13    4   1899     10   1899
02/14   -2   1899     27   1916

FAY:
02/13   14   1973     32   1955
02/14   12   1968     33   1916


&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS
CLIMATE...WFO RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 111514
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1015 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
CENTRAL NC TODAY THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SEND SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER SEASON INTO CENTRAL NC FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
RESIDES TO OUR SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY BUT PLENTY OF COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE AS
THICKNESSES SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH. THIS PUTS
DAYTIME HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
BIT BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE GUSTING TO NEAR 15 KTS OR SO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE
NORTH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT LIMITING
COOLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...MID 20S IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...

POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR A WINTRY MIX TO OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF CENTRAL NC FRIDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES OF NC FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SEWD MOVING UPPER
DISTURBANCE. THIS UPPER FEATURE SHOULD INDUCE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SC COAST AND MOVE NEWD ALONG/OFFSHORE
OF THE NC COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

RH CROSS SECTIONS DEPICT PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FAVORED ICE
NUCLEATION GROWTH ZONE THOUGH MOISTURE INITIALLY IS LACKING IN THE
LOWER LAYERS OF THE COLUMN. THESE LAYERS EVENTUALLY MOISTEN THANKS
TO PRECIP FALLING THROUGH THE COLUMN ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AND
MOIST AIR ADVECTION. BY MID-LATE MORNING...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST TO GENERATE PRECIP.

LIFT WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A COUPLE OF SOURCES: ONE BEING LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE OTHER INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE NOSE OF A 130KT JET. THIS LIFT APPEARS TO BE
MAXIMIZED  OVER THE REGION LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY START OUT AS LIGHT SNOW. AS WARMER AIR STARTS TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH... SHOULD SEE THE SNOW MIX WITH
SLEET THEN EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO A SLEET/RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY. AT THIS TIME EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
OCCUR OVER SECTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 10 AM AND 4 PM. OVER THE REST OF THE
PIEDMONT...EXPECTING JUST A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
FLURRIES.

IMPACTS CURRENTLY WILL BE LIMITED TO A QUICK ACCUMULATION ON
UNTREATED ROADS/PAVEMENTS WITH AMOUNTS VARYING FROM A DUSTING OVER
THE EASTERN SANDHILLS...EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...TO UP TO AN INCH OVER SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON PRECIP COVERAGE AND TYPE. HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN THE EAST A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
IN ANTICIPATION OF BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY LOWER
30S NE TO UPEPR 30S SW.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT WEST-EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE NC COAST. NORTH-NWLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT AN ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL
NC FRIDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY EARLY SATURDAY LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID
20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...

...BITTERLY COLD AIR THIS WEEKEND WITH A WINTRY WEATHER THREAT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AS THE DEPARTING SYSTEM LIFTS WELL OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA... WHILE A MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST U.S. TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY... BUT COLD WEEKEND
ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY... AT LEAST
TAKING AWAY THE ADDED CHILLY BREEZE. WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND (BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 1230 METERS ON SUNDAY MORNING) THINK TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA... WITH HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY GENERALLY FREEZING OR BELOW FOR MOST... IF NOT ALL... OF THE
CWA. EXPECT HIGH ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO GENERALLY THE LOWER 30S. LOW SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH A THREAT OF
WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW S/W ENERGY TRACKING
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE
AMPLIFYING. THIS SHOULD HELP A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S... WITH PRECIP SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NC IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...
THE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH (WHICH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY) WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER... THERE SHOULD BE
AMPLE COLD DRY AIR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT EITHER SNOW OR SLEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING... FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO INDEED SEE PRECIP (BEST
CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT). HOWEVER... WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT S/W ENERGY THAT HAS NOT MOVED ONSHORE YET ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S... WHICH HAS LED TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM FROM RUN TO RUN ALONG WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODELS
AND THE ENSEMBLES... THOUGH IT APPEARS WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE OF
DAMMING DEVELOP ON MONDAY (IN-SITU POSSIBLY). HOW AMPLIFIED THE
TROUGH IS AND THE TRACK AND CONFIGURATION OF THE SURFACE LOW/LOWS
WILL GREATLY AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP WE SEE ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY (OUTSIDE OF THE INITIAL LEAD PRECIP WHICH WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW OR SLEET). WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE FORECAST TO
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED AREAS FOR WINTER PRECIP... WITH MOST
LOCATIONS TURNING TO ALL RAIN BY MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE TIMING
ISSUES THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW FAST THE PRECIP
WILL EXIT... AND IF WE COULD SEE ANY WRAP AROUND WINTER PRECIP. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS MODERATING ON TUESDAY... WITH ONLY
ONE P-TYPE... RAIN. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY.

HIGH AND LOW TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM... THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S FOR MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MID NEXT WEEK... WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S... LOWS IN
THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS EXPECT
IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI WHERE EARLY MORNING GUSTS 14-18KTS MAY OCCUR.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING LOW END VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO CENTRAL
NC...ESPECIALLY KRWI AND KFAY ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KRWI...AND KFAY. THE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY.

ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO CENTRAL NC BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH
GUSTS 20-25KTS HIGHLY PROBABLE. THE NEXT THREAT FOR ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE U.S.

&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SAT
FEB 13TH AND SUN FEB 14TH AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY:


       REC    YR     REC    YR
       LOW         LOW MAX
----------------------------------------------
GSO:
02/13   11   1955     31   1986
02/14    6   1905     22   1914

RDU:
02/13    4   1899     10   1899
02/14   -2   1899     27   1916

FAY:
02/13   14   1973     32   1955
02/14   12   1968     33   1916


&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS
CLIMATE...WFO RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 111143
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
640 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SEND SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER SEASON INTO
CENTRAL NC FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S.
LOSES A BIT OF ITS AMPLITUDE TODAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL COVER THE CAROLINAS...PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL BEGIN TO ABATE AFTER 18Z THOUGH THE 850MB
THERMAL TROUGH WILL LIE OVERHEAD THROUGH 00Z. AFTERNOON TEMPS
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY RANGING FROM THE
MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40-LOWER 40S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL APPRECIABLY. BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST-SW...LIMITING
NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD VARY FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO THE MID 20S FAR SOUTH-SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...

POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR A WINTRY MIX TO OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF CENTRAL NC FRIDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES OF NC FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SEWD MOVING UPPER
DISTURBANCE. THIS UPPER FEATURE SHOULD INDUCE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SC COAST AND MOVE NEWD ALONG/OFFSHORE
OF THE NC COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

RH CROSS SECTIONS DEPICT PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FAVORED ICE
NUCLEATION GROWTH ZONE THOUGH MOISTURE INITIALLY IS LACKING IN THE
LOWER LAYERS OF THE COLUMN. THESE LAYERS EVENTUALLY MOISTEN THANKS
TO PRECIP FALLING THROUGH THE COLUMN ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AND
MOIST AIR ADVECTION. BY MID-LATE MORNING...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST TO GENERATE PRECIP.

LIFT WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A COUPLE OF SOURCES: ONE BEING LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE OTHER INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE NOSE OF A 130KT JET. THIS LIFT APPEARS TO BE
MAXIMIZED  OVER THE REGION LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY START OUT AS LIGHT SNOW. AS WARMER AIR STARTS TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH... SHOULD SEE THE SNOW MIX WITH
SLEET THEN EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO A SLEET/RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY. AT THIS TIME EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
OCCUR OVER SECTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 10 AM AND 4 PM. OVER THE REST OF THE
PIEDMONT...EXPECTING JUST A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
FLURRIES.

IMPACTS CURRENTLY WILL BE LIMITED TO A QUICK ACCUMULATION ON
UNTREATED ROADS/PAVEMENTS WITH AMOUNTS VARYING FROM A DUSTING OVER
THE EASTERN SANDHILLS...EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...TO UP TO AN INCH OVER SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON PRECIP COVERAGE AND TYPE. HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN THE EAST A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
IN ANTICIPATION OF BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY LOWER
30S NE TO UPEPR 30S SW.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT WEST-EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE NC COAST. NORTH-NWLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT AN ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL
NC FRIDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY EARLY SATURDAY LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID
20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...

...BITTERLY COLD AIR THIS WEEKEND WITH A WINTRY WEATHER THREAT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AS THE DEPARTING SYSTEM LIFTS WELL OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA... WHILE A MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST U.S. TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY... BUT COLD WEEKEND
ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY... AT LEAST
TAKING AWAY THE ADDED CHILLY BREEZE. WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND (BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 1230 METERS ON SUNDAY MORNING) THINK TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA... WITH HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY GENERALLY FREEZING OR BELOW FOR MOST... IF NOT ALL... OF THE
CWA. EXPECT HIGH ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO GENERALLY THE LOWER 30S. LOW SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH A THREAT OF
WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW S/W ENERGY TRACKING
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE
AMPLIFYING. THIS SHOULD HELP A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S... WITH PRECIP SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NC IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...
THE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH (WHICH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY) WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER... THERE SHOULD BE
AMPLE COLD DRY AIR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT EITHER SNOW OR SLEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING... FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO INDEED SEE PRECIP (BEST
CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT). HOWEVER... WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT S/W ENERGY THAT HAS NOT MOVED ONSHORE YET ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S... WHICH HAS LED TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM FROM RUN TO RUN ALONG WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODELS
AND THE ENSEMBLES... THOUGH IT APPEARS WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE OF
DAMMING DEVELOP ON MONDAY (IN-SITU POSSIBLY). HOW AMPLIFIED THE
TROUGH IS AND THE TRACK AND CONFIGURATION OF THE SURFACE LOW/LOWS
WILL GREATLY AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP WE SEE ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY (OUTSIDE OF THE INITIAL LEAD PRECIP WHICH WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW OR SLEET). WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE FORECAST TO
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED AREAS FOR WINTER PRECIP... WITH MOST
LOCATIONS TURNING TO ALL RAIN BY MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE TIMING
ISSUES THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW FAST THE PRECIP
WILL EXIT... AND IF WE COULD SEE ANY WRAP AROUND WINTER PRECIP. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS MODERATING ON TUESDAY... WITH ONLY
ONE P-TYPE... RAIN. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY.

HIGH AND LOW TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM... THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S FOR MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MID NEXT WEEK... WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S... LOWS IN
THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS EXPECT
IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI WHERE EARLY MORNING GUSTS 14-18KTS MAY OCCUR.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING LOW END VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO CENTRAL
NC...ESPECIALLY KRWI AND KFAY ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KRWI...AND KFAY. THE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY.

ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO CENTRAL NC BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH
GUSTS 20-25KTS HIGHLY PROBABLE. THE NEXT THREAT FOR ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE U.S.

&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SAT
FEB 13TH AND SUN FEB 14TH AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY:


       REC    YR     REC    YR
       LOW         LOW MAX
----------------------------------------------
GSO:
02/13   11   1955     31   1986
02/14    6   1905     22   1914

RDU:
02/13    4   1899     10   1899
02/14   -2   1899     27   1916

FAY:
02/13   14   1973     32   1955
02/14   12   1968     33   1916


&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS
CLIMATE...WFO RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 111143
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
640 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SEND SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER SEASON INTO
CENTRAL NC FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S.
LOSES A BIT OF ITS AMPLITUDE TODAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL COVER THE CAROLINAS...PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL BEGIN TO ABATE AFTER 18Z THOUGH THE 850MB
THERMAL TROUGH WILL LIE OVERHEAD THROUGH 00Z. AFTERNOON TEMPS
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY RANGING FROM THE
MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40-LOWER 40S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL APPRECIABLY. BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST-SW...LIMITING
NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD VARY FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO THE MID 20S FAR SOUTH-SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...

POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR A WINTRY MIX TO OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF CENTRAL NC FRIDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES OF NC FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SEWD MOVING UPPER
DISTURBANCE. THIS UPPER FEATURE SHOULD INDUCE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SC COAST AND MOVE NEWD ALONG/OFFSHORE
OF THE NC COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

RH CROSS SECTIONS DEPICT PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FAVORED ICE
NUCLEATION GROWTH ZONE THOUGH MOISTURE INITIALLY IS LACKING IN THE
LOWER LAYERS OF THE COLUMN. THESE LAYERS EVENTUALLY MOISTEN THANKS
TO PRECIP FALLING THROUGH THE COLUMN ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AND
MOIST AIR ADVECTION. BY MID-LATE MORNING...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST TO GENERATE PRECIP.

LIFT WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A COUPLE OF SOURCES: ONE BEING LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE OTHER INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE NOSE OF A 130KT JET. THIS LIFT APPEARS TO BE
MAXIMIZED  OVER THE REGION LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY START OUT AS LIGHT SNOW. AS WARMER AIR STARTS TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH... SHOULD SEE THE SNOW MIX WITH
SLEET THEN EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO A SLEET/RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY. AT THIS TIME EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
OCCUR OVER SECTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 10 AM AND 4 PM. OVER THE REST OF THE
PIEDMONT...EXPECTING JUST A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
FLURRIES.

IMPACTS CURRENTLY WILL BE LIMITED TO A QUICK ACCUMULATION ON
UNTREATED ROADS/PAVEMENTS WITH AMOUNTS VARYING FROM A DUSTING OVER
THE EASTERN SANDHILLS...EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...TO UP TO AN INCH OVER SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON PRECIP COVERAGE AND TYPE. HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN THE EAST A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
IN ANTICIPATION OF BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY LOWER
30S NE TO UPEPR 30S SW.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT WEST-EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE NC COAST. NORTH-NWLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT AN ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL
NC FRIDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY EARLY SATURDAY LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID
20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...

...BITTERLY COLD AIR THIS WEEKEND WITH A WINTRY WEATHER THREAT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AS THE DEPARTING SYSTEM LIFTS WELL OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA... WHILE A MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST U.S. TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY... BUT COLD WEEKEND
ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY... AT LEAST
TAKING AWAY THE ADDED CHILLY BREEZE. WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND (BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 1230 METERS ON SUNDAY MORNING) THINK TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA... WITH HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY GENERALLY FREEZING OR BELOW FOR MOST... IF NOT ALL... OF THE
CWA. EXPECT HIGH ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO GENERALLY THE LOWER 30S. LOW SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH A THREAT OF
WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW S/W ENERGY TRACKING
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE
AMPLIFYING. THIS SHOULD HELP A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S... WITH PRECIP SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NC IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...
THE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH (WHICH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY) WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER... THERE SHOULD BE
AMPLE COLD DRY AIR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT EITHER SNOW OR SLEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING... FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO INDEED SEE PRECIP (BEST
CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT). HOWEVER... WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT S/W ENERGY THAT HAS NOT MOVED ONSHORE YET ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S... WHICH HAS LED TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM FROM RUN TO RUN ALONG WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODELS
AND THE ENSEMBLES... THOUGH IT APPEARS WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE OF
DAMMING DEVELOP ON MONDAY (IN-SITU POSSIBLY). HOW AMPLIFIED THE
TROUGH IS AND THE TRACK AND CONFIGURATION OF THE SURFACE LOW/LOWS
WILL GREATLY AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP WE SEE ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY (OUTSIDE OF THE INITIAL LEAD PRECIP WHICH WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW OR SLEET). WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE FORECAST TO
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED AREAS FOR WINTER PRECIP... WITH MOST
LOCATIONS TURNING TO ALL RAIN BY MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE TIMING
ISSUES THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW FAST THE PRECIP
WILL EXIT... AND IF WE COULD SEE ANY WRAP AROUND WINTER PRECIP. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS MODERATING ON TUESDAY... WITH ONLY
ONE P-TYPE... RAIN. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY.

HIGH AND LOW TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM... THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S FOR MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MID NEXT WEEK... WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S... LOWS IN
THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS EXPECT
IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI WHERE EARLY MORNING GUSTS 14-18KTS MAY OCCUR.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING LOW END VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO CENTRAL
NC...ESPECIALLY KRWI AND KFAY ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KRWI...AND KFAY. THE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY.

ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO CENTRAL NC BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH
GUSTS 20-25KTS HIGHLY PROBABLE. THE NEXT THREAT FOR ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE U.S.

&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SAT
FEB 13TH AND SUN FEB 14TH AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY:


       REC    YR     REC    YR
       LOW         LOW MAX
----------------------------------------------
GSO:
02/13   11   1955     31   1986
02/14    6   1905     22   1914

RDU:
02/13    4   1899     10   1899
02/14   -2   1899     27   1916

FAY:
02/13   14   1973     32   1955
02/14   12   1968     33   1916


&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS
CLIMATE...WFO RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 111143
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
640 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SEND SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER SEASON INTO
CENTRAL NC FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S.
LOSES A BIT OF ITS AMPLITUDE TODAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL COVER THE CAROLINAS...PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL BEGIN TO ABATE AFTER 18Z THOUGH THE 850MB
THERMAL TROUGH WILL LIE OVERHEAD THROUGH 00Z. AFTERNOON TEMPS
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY RANGING FROM THE
MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40-LOWER 40S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL APPRECIABLY. BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST-SW...LIMITING
NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD VARY FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO THE MID 20S FAR SOUTH-SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...

POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR A WINTRY MIX TO OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF CENTRAL NC FRIDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES OF NC FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SEWD MOVING UPPER
DISTURBANCE. THIS UPPER FEATURE SHOULD INDUCE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SC COAST AND MOVE NEWD ALONG/OFFSHORE
OF THE NC COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

RH CROSS SECTIONS DEPICT PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FAVORED ICE
NUCLEATION GROWTH ZONE THOUGH MOISTURE INITIALLY IS LACKING IN THE
LOWER LAYERS OF THE COLUMN. THESE LAYERS EVENTUALLY MOISTEN THANKS
TO PRECIP FALLING THROUGH THE COLUMN ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AND
MOIST AIR ADVECTION. BY MID-LATE MORNING...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST TO GENERATE PRECIP.

LIFT WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A COUPLE OF SOURCES: ONE BEING LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE OTHER INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE NOSE OF A 130KT JET. THIS LIFT APPEARS TO BE
MAXIMIZED  OVER THE REGION LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY START OUT AS LIGHT SNOW. AS WARMER AIR STARTS TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH... SHOULD SEE THE SNOW MIX WITH
SLEET THEN EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO A SLEET/RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY. AT THIS TIME EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
OCCUR OVER SECTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 10 AM AND 4 PM. OVER THE REST OF THE
PIEDMONT...EXPECTING JUST A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
FLURRIES.

IMPACTS CURRENTLY WILL BE LIMITED TO A QUICK ACCUMULATION ON
UNTREATED ROADS/PAVEMENTS WITH AMOUNTS VARYING FROM A DUSTING OVER
THE EASTERN SANDHILLS...EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...TO UP TO AN INCH OVER SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON PRECIP COVERAGE AND TYPE. HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN THE EAST A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
IN ANTICIPATION OF BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY LOWER
30S NE TO UPEPR 30S SW.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT WEST-EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE NC COAST. NORTH-NWLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT AN ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL
NC FRIDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY EARLY SATURDAY LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID
20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...

...BITTERLY COLD AIR THIS WEEKEND WITH A WINTRY WEATHER THREAT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AS THE DEPARTING SYSTEM LIFTS WELL OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA... WHILE A MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST U.S. TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY... BUT COLD WEEKEND
ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY... AT LEAST
TAKING AWAY THE ADDED CHILLY BREEZE. WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND (BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 1230 METERS ON SUNDAY MORNING) THINK TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA... WITH HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY GENERALLY FREEZING OR BELOW FOR MOST... IF NOT ALL... OF THE
CWA. EXPECT HIGH ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO GENERALLY THE LOWER 30S. LOW SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH A THREAT OF
WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW S/W ENERGY TRACKING
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE
AMPLIFYING. THIS SHOULD HELP A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S... WITH PRECIP SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NC IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...
THE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH (WHICH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY) WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER... THERE SHOULD BE
AMPLE COLD DRY AIR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT EITHER SNOW OR SLEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING... FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO INDEED SEE PRECIP (BEST
CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT). HOWEVER... WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT S/W ENERGY THAT HAS NOT MOVED ONSHORE YET ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S... WHICH HAS LED TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM FROM RUN TO RUN ALONG WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODELS
AND THE ENSEMBLES... THOUGH IT APPEARS WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE OF
DAMMING DEVELOP ON MONDAY (IN-SITU POSSIBLY). HOW AMPLIFIED THE
TROUGH IS AND THE TRACK AND CONFIGURATION OF THE SURFACE LOW/LOWS
WILL GREATLY AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP WE SEE ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY (OUTSIDE OF THE INITIAL LEAD PRECIP WHICH WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW OR SLEET). WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE FORECAST TO
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED AREAS FOR WINTER PRECIP... WITH MOST
LOCATIONS TURNING TO ALL RAIN BY MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE TIMING
ISSUES THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW FAST THE PRECIP
WILL EXIT... AND IF WE COULD SEE ANY WRAP AROUND WINTER PRECIP. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS MODERATING ON TUESDAY... WITH ONLY
ONE P-TYPE... RAIN. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY.

HIGH AND LOW TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM... THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S FOR MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MID NEXT WEEK... WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S... LOWS IN
THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS EXPECT
IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI WHERE EARLY MORNING GUSTS 14-18KTS MAY OCCUR.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING LOW END VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO CENTRAL
NC...ESPECIALLY KRWI AND KFAY ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KRWI...AND KFAY. THE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILING AND
VISIBILITY.

ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL INTO CENTRAL NC BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH
GUSTS 20-25KTS HIGHLY PROBABLE. THE NEXT THREAT FOR ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE U.S.

&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SAT
FEB 13TH AND SUN FEB 14TH AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY:


       REC    YR     REC    YR
       LOW         LOW MAX
----------------------------------------------
GSO:
02/13   11   1955     31   1986
02/14    6   1905     22   1914

RDU:
02/13    4   1899     10   1899
02/14   -2   1899     27   1916

FAY:
02/13   14   1973     32   1955
02/14   12   1968     33   1916


&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS
CLIMATE...WFO RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 110848
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
350 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SEND SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER SEASON INTO
CENTRAL NC FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S.
LOSES A BIT OF ITS AMPLITUDE TODAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL COVER THE CAROLINAS...PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL BEGIN TO ABATE AFTER 18Z THOUGH THE 850MB
THERMAL TROUGH WILL LIE OVERHEAD THROUGH 00Z. AFTERNOON TEMPS
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY RANGING FROM THE
MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40-LOWER 40S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL APPRECIABLY. BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST-SW...LIMITING
NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD VARY FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO THE MID 20S FAR SOUTH-SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...

POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR A WINTRY MIX TO OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF CENTRAL NC FRIDAY.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES OF NC FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SEWD MOVING UPPER
DISTURBANCE. THIS UPPER FEATURE SHOULD INDUCE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SC COAST AND MOVE NEWD ALONG/OFFSHORE
OF THE NC COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

RH CROSS SECTIONS DEPICT PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE FAVORED ICE
NUCLEATION GROWTH ZONE THOUGH MOISTURE INITIALLY IS LACKING IN THE
LOWER LAYERS OF THE COLUMN. THESE LAYERS EVENTUALLY MOISTEN THANKS
TO PRECIP FALLING THROUGH THE COLUMN ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AND
MOIST AIR ADVECTION. BY MID-LATE MORNING...ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST TO GENERATE PRECIP.

LIFT WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A COUPLE OF SOURCES: ONE BEING LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE OTHER INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE NOSE OF A 130KT JET. THIS LIFT APPEARS TO BE
MAXIMIZED  OVER THE REGION LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY START OUT AS LIGHT SNOW. AS WARMER AIR STARTS TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH... SHOULD SEE THE SNOW MIX WITH
SLEET THEN EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO A SLEET/RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE DAY. AT THIS TIME EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO
OCCUR OVER SECTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 10 AM AND 4 PM. OVER THE REST OF THE
PIEDMONT...EXPECTING JUST A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
FLURRIES.

IMPACTS CURRENTLY WILL BE LIMITED TO A QUICK ACCUMULATION ON
UNTREATED ROADS/PAVEMENTS WITH AMOUNTS VARYING FROM A DUSTING OVER
THE EASTERN SANDHILLS...EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...TO UP TO AN INCH OVER SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN.

HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON PRECIP COVERAGE AND TYPE. HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN THE EAST A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
IN ANTICIPATION OF BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY LOWER
30S NE TO UPEPR 30S SW.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT WEST-EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE NC COAST. NORTH-NWLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT AN ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL
NC FRIDAY NIGHT. MIN TEMPS BY EARLY SATURDAY LOWER 20S NORTH AND MID
20S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...

...BITTERLY COLD AIR THIS WEEKEND WITH A WINTRY WEATHER THREAT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AS THE DEPARTING SYSTEM LIFTS WELL OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA... WHILE A MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST U.S. TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY... BUT COLD WEEKEND
ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY... AT LEAST
TAKING AWAY THE ADDED CHILLY BREEZE. WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND (BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 1230 METERS ON SUNDAY MORNING) THINK TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA... WITH HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY GENERALLY FREEZING OR BELOW FOR MOST... IF NOT ALL... OF THE
CWA. EXPECT HIGH ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO GENERALLY THE LOWER 30S. LOW SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH A THREAT OF
WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW S/W ENERGY TRACKING
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE
AMPLIFYING. THIS SHOULD HELP A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S... WITH PRECIP SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NC IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...
THE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH (WHICH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY) WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER... THERE SHOULD BE
AMPLE COLD DRY AIR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT EITHER SNOW OR SLEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING... FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO INDEED SEE PRECIP (BEST
CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT). HOWEVER... WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT S/W ENERGY THAT HAS NOT MOVED ONSHORE YET ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S... WHICH HAS LED TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM FROM RUN TO RUN ALONG WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODELS
AND THE ENSEMBLES... THOUGH IT APPEARS WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE OF
DAMMING DEVELOP ON MONDAY (IN-SITU POSSIBLY). HOW AMPLIFIED THE
TROUGH IS AND THE TRACK AND CONFIGURATION OF THE SURFACE LOW/LOWS
WILL GREATLY AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP WE SEE ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY (OUTSIDE OF THE INITIAL LEAD PRECIP WHICH WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW OR SLEET). WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE FORECAST TO
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED AREAS FOR WINTER PRECIP... WITH MOST
LOCATIONS TURNING TO ALL RAIN BY MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE TIMING
ISSUES THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW FAST THE PRECIP
WILL EXIT... AND IF WE COULD SEE ANY WRAP AROUND WINTER PRECIP. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS MODERATING ON TUESDAY... WITH ONLY
ONE P-TYPE... RAIN. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY.

HIGH AND LOW TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM... THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S FOR MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MID NEXT WEEK... WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S... LOWS IN
THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS EXPECT
IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI WHERE EARLY MORNING GUSTS 14-18KTS MAY OCCUR.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING LOW END VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO CENTRAL
NC...ESPECIALLY KRWI AND KFAY ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KRWI...AND KFAY. ARCTIC
AIR WILL SPILL INTO CENTRAL NC BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE SE U.S.

&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SAT
FEB 13TH AND SUN FEB 14TH AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY:


       REC    YR     REC    YR
       LOW         LOW MAX
----------------------------------------------
GSO:
02/13   11   1955     31   1986
02/14    6   1905     22   1914

RDU:
02/13    4   1899     10   1899
02/14   -2   1899     27   1916

FAY:
02/13   14   1973     32   1955
02/14   12   1968     33   1916


&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS
CLIMATE...WFO RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 110832
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
329 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SEND SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER SEASON INTO
CENTRAL NC FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S.
LOSES A BIT OF ITS AMPLITUDE TODAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL COVER THE CAROLINAS...PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL BEGIN TO ABATE AFTER 18Z THOUGH THE 850MB
THERMAL TROUGH WILL LIE OVERHEAD THROUGH 00Z. AFTERNOON TEMPS
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY RANGING FROM THE
MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40-LOWER 40S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL APPRECIABLY. BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST-SW...LIMITING
NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD VARY FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO THE MID 20S FAR SOUTH-SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH HOLDING OVER ERN NOAM... A PERTURBATION NOW
COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RIDE ATOP THE WESTERN RIDGE
AND SHEAR OUT AS IT DIVES INTO THE TROUGH BASE AND EVENTUALLY
CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FRI GENERATING WEAK DPVA. THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE AUGMENTED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET DIVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST STATES... AND THIS WILL SUPPORT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT... TRACKING ACROSS AR AND THE GULF STATES/SRN GA/SRN SC
THU/THU NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE SC COAST FRI MORNING. THE
OVERALL LIFT IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER... AND THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS DO NOT SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW UNTIL IT IS
ALREADY WELL OFF THE COAST AND MOVING ENE AWAY FROM NC... KEEPING IT
RATHER WEAK AND FLAT WITHOUT A STRONG THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN.
MOISTURE IS ALSO UNIMPRESSIVE... WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MULTIPLE UNSATURATED LAYERS AND INCONSISTENT MOISTENING ABOVE -10C
THAT BRINGS DOUBT AS TO THE PRESENCE OF ICE ALOFT. WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO DEPICT VERY LIGHT TO NO QPF EXCEPT AS ONE GETS CLOSER
TO THE CENTRAL COASTAL AREA... WILL TAKE POPS AND AMOUNTS DOWNWARD
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THICKNESSES AND THE VERTICAL THERMAL
STRUCTURES NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A MOSTLY RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER THE FAR SE CWA... AND WHILE THIS IS THE AREA THAT IS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER BANDED PRECIP ON THE NW SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW... THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF A MIXTURE WILL KEEP ANY
ACCUMULATIONS VERY LOW... WITH ONLY A SLUSHY COATING AT MOST.
FURTHER INLAND... WITHIN THE COLDER THICKNESSES... ANY PRECIP SHOULD
BE LIGHT FLURRIES... YIELDING LITTLE MORE THAN A LIGHT DUSTING WITH
NO TRAVEL IMPACTS. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER FRI... WITH
CLEARING FRI NIGHT AS THE POLAR FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA... MOST LIKELY OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS 36-42 FRI AND
LOWS 21-28. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...

...BITTERLY COLD AIR THIS WEEKEND WITH A WINTRY WEATHER THREAT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AS THE DEPARTING SYSTEM LIFTS WELL OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA... WHILE A MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST U.S. TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY... BUT COLD WEEKEND
ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY... AT LEAST
TAKING AWAY THE ADDED CHILLY BREEZE. WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND (BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 1230 METERS ON SUNDAY MORNING) THINK TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA... WITH HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY GENERALLY FREEZING OR BELOW FOR MOST... IF NOT ALL... OF THE
CWA. EXPECT HIGH ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO GENERALLY THE LOWER 30S. LOW SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH A THREAT OF
WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW S/W ENERGY TRACKING
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE
AMPLIFYING. THIS SHOULD HELP A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S... WITH PRECIP SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NC IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...
THE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH (WHICH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY) WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER... THERE SHOULD BE
AMPLE COLD DRY AIR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT EITHER SNOW OR SLEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING... FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO INDEED SEE PRECIP (BEST
CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT). HOWEVER... WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT S/W ENERGY THAT HAS NOT MOVED ONSHORE YET ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S... WHICH HAS LED TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM FROM RUN TO RUN ALONG WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODELS
AND THE ENSEMBLES... THOUGH IT APPEARS WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE OF
DAMMING DEVELOP ON MONDAY (IN-SITU POSSIBLY). HOW AMPLIFIED THE
TROUGH IS AND THE TRACK AND CONFIGURATION OF THE SURFACE LOW/LOWS
WILL GREATLY AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP WE SEE ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY (OUTSIDE OF THE INITIAL LEAD PRECIP WHICH WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW OR SLEET). WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE FORECAST TO
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED AREAS FOR WINTER PRECIP... WITH MOST
LOCATIONS TURNING TO ALL RAIN BY MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE TIMING
ISSUES THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW FAST THE PRECIP
WILL EXIT... AND IF WE COULD SEE ANY WRAP AROUND WINTER PRECIP. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS MODERATING ON TUESDAY... WITH ONLY
ONE P-TYPE... RAIN. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY.

HIGH AND LOW TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM... THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S FOR MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MID NEXT WEEK... WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S... LOWS IN
THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS EXPECT
IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI WHERE EARLY MORNING GUSTS 14-18KTS MAY OCCUR.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING LOW END VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO CENTRAL
NC...ESPECIALLY KRWI AND KFAY ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KRWI...AND KFAY. ARCTIC24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE ISSUE THAT LINGERS THIS EVENING.
WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 KTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES BUT ESPECIALLY AT KGSO/KINT THROUGH THE
EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

LONG TERM: A COASTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY AT
EASTERN TAF SITES. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
ENTER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

AIR WILL SPILL INTO CENTRAL NC BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE SE U.S.24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE ISSUE THAT LINGERS THIS EVENING.
WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 KTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES BUT ESPECIALLY AT KGSO/KINT THROUGH THE
EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

LONG TERM: A COASTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY AT
EASTERN TAF SITES. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
ENTER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.



&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SAT
FEB 13TH AND SUN FEB 14TH AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY:


       REC    YR     REC    YR
       LOW         LOW MAX
----------------------------------------------
GSO:
02/13   11   1955     31   1986
02/14    6   1905     22   1914

RDU:
02/13    4   1899     10   1899
02/14   -2   1899     27   1916

FAY:
02/13   14   1973     32   1955
02/14   12   1968     33   1916


&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...26/ELLIS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS
CLIMATE...WFO RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 110832
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
329 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SEND SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER SEASON INTO
CENTRAL NC FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S.
LOSES A BIT OF ITS AMPLITUDE TODAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WILL COVER THE CAROLINAS...PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL BEGIN TO ABATE AFTER 18Z THOUGH THE 850MB
THERMAL TROUGH WILL LIE OVERHEAD THROUGH 00Z. AFTERNOON TEMPS
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY RANGING FROM THE
MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 40-LOWER 40S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL APPRECIABLY. BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST-SW...LIMITING
NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD VARY FROM NEAR 20 NORTH TO THE MID 20S FAR SOUTH-SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH HOLDING OVER ERN NOAM... A PERTURBATION NOW
COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RIDE ATOP THE WESTERN RIDGE
AND SHEAR OUT AS IT DIVES INTO THE TROUGH BASE AND EVENTUALLY
CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FRI GENERATING WEAK DPVA. THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE AUGMENTED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET DIVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST STATES... AND THIS WILL SUPPORT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT... TRACKING ACROSS AR AND THE GULF STATES/SRN GA/SRN SC
THU/THU NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE SC COAST FRI MORNING. THE
OVERALL LIFT IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER... AND THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS DO NOT SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW UNTIL IT IS
ALREADY WELL OFF THE COAST AND MOVING ENE AWAY FROM NC... KEEPING IT
RATHER WEAK AND FLAT WITHOUT A STRONG THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN.
MOISTURE IS ALSO UNIMPRESSIVE... WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MULTIPLE UNSATURATED LAYERS AND INCONSISTENT MOISTENING ABOVE -10C
THAT BRINGS DOUBT AS TO THE PRESENCE OF ICE ALOFT. WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO DEPICT VERY LIGHT TO NO QPF EXCEPT AS ONE GETS CLOSER
TO THE CENTRAL COASTAL AREA... WILL TAKE POPS AND AMOUNTS DOWNWARD
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THICKNESSES AND THE VERTICAL THERMAL
STRUCTURES NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A MOSTLY RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER THE FAR SE CWA... AND WHILE THIS IS THE AREA THAT IS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER BANDED PRECIP ON THE NW SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW... THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF A MIXTURE WILL KEEP ANY
ACCUMULATIONS VERY LOW... WITH ONLY A SLUSHY COATING AT MOST.
FURTHER INLAND... WITHIN THE COLDER THICKNESSES... ANY PRECIP SHOULD
BE LIGHT FLURRIES... YIELDING LITTLE MORE THAN A LIGHT DUSTING WITH
NO TRAVEL IMPACTS. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER FRI... WITH
CLEARING FRI NIGHT AS THE POLAR FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA... MOST LIKELY OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS 36-42 FRI AND
LOWS 21-28. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...

...BITTERLY COLD AIR THIS WEEKEND WITH A WINTRY WEATHER THREAT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY AS THE DEPARTING SYSTEM LIFTS WELL OFF TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA... WHILE A MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST U.S. TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY... BUT COLD WEEKEND
ACROSS CENTRAL NC... WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY... AT LEAST
TAKING AWAY THE ADDED CHILLY BREEZE. WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND (BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 1230 METERS ON SUNDAY MORNING) THINK TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA... WITH HIGH TEMPS
SUNDAY GENERALLY FREEZING OR BELOW FOR MOST... IF NOT ALL... OF THE
CWA. EXPECT HIGH ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO GENERALLY THE LOWER 30S. LOW SUNDAY MORNING
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH A THREAT OF
WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW S/W ENERGY TRACKING
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN U.S EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHILE
AMPLIFYING. THIS SHOULD HELP A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S... WITH PRECIP SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NC IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...
THE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH (WHICH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY) WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER... THERE SHOULD BE
AMPLE COLD DRY AIR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT EITHER SNOW OR SLEET EARLY
MONDAY MORNING... FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO INDEED SEE PRECIP (BEST
CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT). HOWEVER... WE ARE
TALKING ABOUT S/W ENERGY THAT HAS NOT MOVED ONSHORE YET ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S... WHICH HAS LED TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS SYSTEM FROM RUN TO RUN ALONG WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODELS
AND THE ENSEMBLES... THOUGH IT APPEARS WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE OF
DAMMING DEVELOP ON MONDAY (IN-SITU POSSIBLY). HOW AMPLIFIED THE
TROUGH IS AND THE TRACK AND CONFIGURATION OF THE SURFACE LOW/LOWS
WILL GREATLY AFFECT WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP WE SEE ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY (OUTSIDE OF THE INITIAL LEAD PRECIP WHICH WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW OR SLEET). WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE FORECAST TO
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED AREAS FOR WINTER PRECIP... WITH MOST
LOCATIONS TURNING TO ALL RAIN BY MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE TIMING
ISSUES THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW FAST THE PRECIP
WILL EXIT... AND IF WE COULD SEE ANY WRAP AROUND WINTER PRECIP. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPS MODERATING ON TUESDAY... WITH ONLY
ONE P-TYPE... RAIN. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY.

HIGH AND LOW TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM... THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S FOR MONDAY MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BY MID NEXT WEEK... WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S... LOWS IN
THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS EXPECT
IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI WHERE EARLY MORNING GUSTS 14-18KTS MAY OCCUR.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING LOW END VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO CENTRAL
NC...ESPECIALLY KRWI AND KFAY ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KRWI...AND KFAY. ARCTIC24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE ISSUE THAT LINGERS THIS EVENING.
WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 KTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES BUT ESPECIALLY AT KGSO/KINT THROUGH THE
EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

LONG TERM: A COASTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY AT
EASTERN TAF SITES. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
ENTER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

AIR WILL SPILL INTO CENTRAL NC BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE SE U.S.24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE ISSUE THAT LINGERS THIS EVENING.
WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 KTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES BUT ESPECIALLY AT KGSO/KINT THROUGH THE
EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

LONG TERM: A COASTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY AT
EASTERN TAF SITES. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
ENTER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.



&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SAT
FEB 13TH AND SUN FEB 14TH AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY:


       REC    YR     REC    YR
       LOW         LOW MAX
----------------------------------------------
GSO:
02/13   11   1955     31   1986
02/14    6   1905     22   1914

RDU:
02/13    4   1899     10   1899
02/14   -2   1899     27   1916

FAY:
02/13   14   1973     32   1955
02/14   12   1968     33   1916


&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...26/ELLIS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS
CLIMATE...WFO RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 110537
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SEND SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER SEASON INTO
CENTRAL NC FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM WEDNESDAY...

TONIGHT: 00Z RAOB DATA INDICATE HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO
RISE THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...AS AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH BRIEFLY RETREATS/LIFTS UP THE NORTHEAST COAST. A
STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WAA REGIME AND AXIS OF LOW-MID LEVEL FGEN ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH --BENEATH THE EXIT REGION OF A
NEARLY 150 KT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER JET STREAK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO THE TN VALLEY-- HAS SUPPORTED A NARROW STRIPE OF LIGHT SNOW FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOSTLY RECENTLY...THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

THE NWP MODELS INSIST THAT THE UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED FORCING BELOW
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MIGRATES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AROUND THE BASE OF
THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS...OVERNIGHT. THIS WEAKENING FORCING AND
DISPERSING OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW RAIN-SHADOW EFFECT IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...SUPPORTS
THIS WEAKENING TREND ALREADY NOTED IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE CONSEQUENTLY ANTICIPATED
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING CENTRAL
NC WILL RESULT IN A SECONDARY SURGE OF CAA AND BL MIXING TONIGHT...
BUT WITH PERIODS OF CALM AND MAXIMIZED RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER
THE PIEDMONT ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT...AS A WEAK (1024 MB) SURFACE
HIGH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BUILDS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ASSOCIATED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WITH MINIMUM
WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE
TEENS. -26


THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES OUT TO
SEA. THICKNESSES WILL TAKE A WHILE TO RECOVER HOWEVER AND THE WARMER
THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. THEREFORE NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THURSDAY WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PLENTY OF SUN HOWEVER WITH BUT
STILL A LITTLE BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS OR SO. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL FEATURE A GRADIENT IN THE LOW TEMPERATURE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WITH UPPER TEENS NORTH TO MIDDLE 20S SOUTH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH HOLDING OVER ERN NOAM... A PERTURBATION NOW
COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RIDE ATOP THE WESTERN RIDGE
AND SHEAR OUT AS IT DIVES INTO THE TROUGH BASE AND EVENTUALLY
CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FRI GENERATING WEAK DPVA. THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE AUGMENTED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET DIVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST STATES... AND THIS WILL SUPPORT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT... TRACKING ACROSS AR AND THE GULF STATES/SRN GA/SRN SC
THU/THU NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE SC COAST FRI MORNING. THE
OVERALL LIFT IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER... AND THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS DO NOT SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW UNTIL IT IS
ALREADY WELL OFF THE COAST AND MOVING ENE AWAY FROM NC... KEEPING IT
RATHER WEAK AND FLAT WITHOUT A STRONG THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN.
MOISTURE IS ALSO UNIMPRESSIVE... WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MULTIPLE UNSATURATED LAYERS AND INCONSISTENT MOISTENING ABOVE -10C
THAT BRINGS DOUBT AS TO THE PRESENCE OF ICE ALOFT. WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO DEPICT VERY LIGHT TO NO QPF EXCEPT AS ONE GETS CLOSER
TO THE CENTRAL COASTAL AREA... WILL TAKE POPS AND AMOUNTS DOWNWARD
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THICKNESSES AND THE VERTICAL THERMAL
STRUCTURES NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A MOSTLY RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER THE FAR SE CWA... AND WHILE THIS IS THE AREA THAT IS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER BANDED PRECIP ON THE NW SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW... THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF A MIXTURE WILL KEEP ANY
ACCUMULATIONS VERY LOW... WITH ONLY A SLUSHY COATING AT MOST.
FURTHER INLAND... WITHIN THE COLDER THICKNESSES... ANY PRECIP SHOULD
BE LIGHT FLURRIES... YIELDING LITTLE MORE THAN A LIGHT DUSTING WITH
NO TRAVEL IMPACTS. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER FRI... WITH
CLEARING FRI NIGHT AS THE POLAR FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA... MOST LIKELY OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS 36-42 FRI AND
LOWS 21-28. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...

...BITTERLY COLD AIR THIS WEEKEND WITH A WINTRY WEATHER THREAT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

SAT/SUN: THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SE THROUGH THE CWA
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SAT WILL INTRODUCE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND A PLUNGE IN THICKNESSES (TO AROUND 80 M BELOW NORMAL)
AS A DENSE POLAR SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. THE
CORE OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO THE MIDATLANTIC BY SUN EVENING WHILE
EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH NC. EXPECT DECENT SUNSHINE WITH LITTLE MORE
THAN FLAT CU SAT AFTERNOON WITH MIXING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE BENEATH
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT... AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THE THICKNESSES PROJECTED BY THE
MODELS SUGGEST HIGHS BELOW FREEZING SAT ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64...
AND BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY... WITH LOWS AROUND 8 TO 15
SAT NIGHT. THE THICKNESS CLIMATOLOGY INDICATES THAT SINGLE DIGIT
LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT... BUT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF SOME MIXING
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT... HAVE OPTED ON THE "WARM" SIDE OF THIS
CLIMATOLOGY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS NE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.

MON THROUGH WED: MODEL DIFFERENCES WIDEN HEADING INTO MON AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS BEFORE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
ERN STATES BY MID WEEK. IN SHORT... THE ECMWF SOLUTION (AND THE
CANADIAN IS SIMILAR) WAS PREFERRED OVER THE GFS... WITH THE FORMER
APPEARING MORE REASONABLE AND FITTING BETTER WITH CLIMATOLOGY.
ACCORDING TO THIS SOLUTION... A POTENT PERTURBATION WILL SWING
THROUGH OK MON THEN DEEPEN OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY MON NIGHT
BEFORE CROSSING THE TN VALLEY/SE/CAROLINAS/MIDATLANTIC TUE INTO WED.
THE ECMWF BRINGS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DEEP LIFT STARTING
MON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE NIGHT... FINALLY SHIFTING TO OUR NE
WED... ALL THE WHILE TAKING A MILLER-B TYPE CYCLOGENESIS PATTERN
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE AS WELL AS QPF... BUT
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME PRECIP MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. AND IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT... WE`D BE LOOKING AT A VERY WET EVENT... WITH A CHANCE OF
MOSTLY SNOW MON TRENDING UP TO MOSTLY RAIN MON NIGHT AS POPS
INCREASE... INDICATING A LOWER OVERALL IMPACT FROM WINTRY WEATHER.
BUT A LOT CAN CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS... SO EVERYONE
SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS. TEMPS SHOULD START
TO WARM UP INTO THE 30S MON... INTO THE 40S TUE AS WE GET INTO THE
WARM SECTOR... AND PERHAPS LOW 50S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) WED AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW MOVES NE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS EXPECT
IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI WHERE EARLY MORNING GUSTS 14-18KTS MAY OCCUR.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING LOW END VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO CENTRAL
NC...ESPECIALLY KRWI AND KFAY ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KRWI...AND KFAY. ARCTIC24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE ISSUE THAT LINGERS THIS EVENING.
WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 KTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES BUT ESPECIALLY AT KGSO/KINT THROUGH THE
EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

LONG TERM: A COASTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY AT
EASTERN TAF SITES. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
ENTER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

AIR WILL SPILL INTO CENTRAL NC BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE SE U.S.24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE ISSUE THAT LINGERS THIS EVENING.
WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 KTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES BUT ESPECIALLY AT KGSO/KINT THROUGH THE
EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

LONG TERM: A COASTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY AT
EASTERN TAF SITES. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
ENTER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.



&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SAT
FEB 13TH AND SUN FEB 14TH AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY:


       REC    YR     REC    YR
       LOW         LOW MAX
----------------------------------------------
GSO:
02/13   11   1955     31   1986
02/14    6   1905     22   1914

RDU:
02/13    4   1899     10   1899
02/14   -2   1899     27   1916

FAY:
02/13   14   1973     32   1955
02/14   12   1968     33   1916


&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...26/ELLIS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 110537
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SEND SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER SEASON INTO
CENTRAL NC FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM WEDNESDAY...

TONIGHT: 00Z RAOB DATA INDICATE HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO
RISE THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...AS AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH BRIEFLY RETREATS/LIFTS UP THE NORTHEAST COAST. A
STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WAA REGIME AND AXIS OF LOW-MID LEVEL FGEN ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH --BENEATH THE EXIT REGION OF A
NEARLY 150 KT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER JET STREAK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO THE TN VALLEY-- HAS SUPPORTED A NARROW STRIPE OF LIGHT SNOW FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOSTLY RECENTLY...THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

THE NWP MODELS INSIST THAT THE UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED FORCING BELOW
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MIGRATES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AROUND THE BASE OF
THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS...OVERNIGHT. THIS WEAKENING FORCING AND
DISPERSING OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW RAIN-SHADOW EFFECT IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...SUPPORTS
THIS WEAKENING TREND ALREADY NOTED IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE CONSEQUENTLY ANTICIPATED
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING CENTRAL
NC WILL RESULT IN A SECONDARY SURGE OF CAA AND BL MIXING TONIGHT...
BUT WITH PERIODS OF CALM AND MAXIMIZED RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER
THE PIEDMONT ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT...AS A WEAK (1024 MB) SURFACE
HIGH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BUILDS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ASSOCIATED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WITH MINIMUM
WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE
TEENS. -26


THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES OUT TO
SEA. THICKNESSES WILL TAKE A WHILE TO RECOVER HOWEVER AND THE WARMER
THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. THEREFORE NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THURSDAY WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PLENTY OF SUN HOWEVER WITH BUT
STILL A LITTLE BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS OR SO. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL FEATURE A GRADIENT IN THE LOW TEMPERATURE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WITH UPPER TEENS NORTH TO MIDDLE 20S SOUTH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH HOLDING OVER ERN NOAM... A PERTURBATION NOW
COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RIDE ATOP THE WESTERN RIDGE
AND SHEAR OUT AS IT DIVES INTO THE TROUGH BASE AND EVENTUALLY
CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FRI GENERATING WEAK DPVA. THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE AUGMENTED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET DIVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST STATES... AND THIS WILL SUPPORT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT... TRACKING ACROSS AR AND THE GULF STATES/SRN GA/SRN SC
THU/THU NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE SC COAST FRI MORNING. THE
OVERALL LIFT IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER... AND THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS DO NOT SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW UNTIL IT IS
ALREADY WELL OFF THE COAST AND MOVING ENE AWAY FROM NC... KEEPING IT
RATHER WEAK AND FLAT WITHOUT A STRONG THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN.
MOISTURE IS ALSO UNIMPRESSIVE... WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MULTIPLE UNSATURATED LAYERS AND INCONSISTENT MOISTENING ABOVE -10C
THAT BRINGS DOUBT AS TO THE PRESENCE OF ICE ALOFT. WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO DEPICT VERY LIGHT TO NO QPF EXCEPT AS ONE GETS CLOSER
TO THE CENTRAL COASTAL AREA... WILL TAKE POPS AND AMOUNTS DOWNWARD
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THICKNESSES AND THE VERTICAL THERMAL
STRUCTURES NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A MOSTLY RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER THE FAR SE CWA... AND WHILE THIS IS THE AREA THAT IS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER BANDED PRECIP ON THE NW SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW... THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF A MIXTURE WILL KEEP ANY
ACCUMULATIONS VERY LOW... WITH ONLY A SLUSHY COATING AT MOST.
FURTHER INLAND... WITHIN THE COLDER THICKNESSES... ANY PRECIP SHOULD
BE LIGHT FLURRIES... YIELDING LITTLE MORE THAN A LIGHT DUSTING WITH
NO TRAVEL IMPACTS. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER FRI... WITH
CLEARING FRI NIGHT AS THE POLAR FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA... MOST LIKELY OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS 36-42 FRI AND
LOWS 21-28. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...

...BITTERLY COLD AIR THIS WEEKEND WITH A WINTRY WEATHER THREAT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

SAT/SUN: THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SE THROUGH THE CWA
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SAT WILL INTRODUCE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND A PLUNGE IN THICKNESSES (TO AROUND 80 M BELOW NORMAL)
AS A DENSE POLAR SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. THE
CORE OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO THE MIDATLANTIC BY SUN EVENING WHILE
EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH NC. EXPECT DECENT SUNSHINE WITH LITTLE MORE
THAN FLAT CU SAT AFTERNOON WITH MIXING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE BENEATH
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT... AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THE THICKNESSES PROJECTED BY THE
MODELS SUGGEST HIGHS BELOW FREEZING SAT ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64...
AND BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY... WITH LOWS AROUND 8 TO 15
SAT NIGHT. THE THICKNESS CLIMATOLOGY INDICATES THAT SINGLE DIGIT
LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT... BUT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF SOME MIXING
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT... HAVE OPTED ON THE "WARM" SIDE OF THIS
CLIMATOLOGY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS NE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.

MON THROUGH WED: MODEL DIFFERENCES WIDEN HEADING INTO MON AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS BEFORE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
ERN STATES BY MID WEEK. IN SHORT... THE ECMWF SOLUTION (AND THE
CANADIAN IS SIMILAR) WAS PREFERRED OVER THE GFS... WITH THE FORMER
APPEARING MORE REASONABLE AND FITTING BETTER WITH CLIMATOLOGY.
ACCORDING TO THIS SOLUTION... A POTENT PERTURBATION WILL SWING
THROUGH OK MON THEN DEEPEN OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY MON NIGHT
BEFORE CROSSING THE TN VALLEY/SE/CAROLINAS/MIDATLANTIC TUE INTO WED.
THE ECMWF BRINGS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DEEP LIFT STARTING
MON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE NIGHT... FINALLY SHIFTING TO OUR NE
WED... ALL THE WHILE TAKING A MILLER-B TYPE CYCLOGENESIS PATTERN
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE AS WELL AS QPF... BUT
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME PRECIP MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. AND IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT... WE`D BE LOOKING AT A VERY WET EVENT... WITH A CHANCE OF
MOSTLY SNOW MON TRENDING UP TO MOSTLY RAIN MON NIGHT AS POPS
INCREASE... INDICATING A LOWER OVERALL IMPACT FROM WINTRY WEATHER.
BUT A LOT CAN CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS... SO EVERYONE
SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS. TEMPS SHOULD START
TO WARM UP INTO THE 30S MON... INTO THE 40S TUE AS WE GET INTO THE
WARM SECTOR... AND PERHAPS LOW 50S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) WED AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW MOVES NE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS EXPECT
IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI WHERE EARLY MORNING GUSTS 14-18KTS MAY OCCUR.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING LOW END VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO CENTRAL
NC...ESPECIALLY KRWI AND KFAY ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KRWI...AND KFAY. ARCTIC24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE ISSUE THAT LINGERS THIS EVENING.
WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 KTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES BUT ESPECIALLY AT KGSO/KINT THROUGH THE
EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

LONG TERM: A COASTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY AT
EASTERN TAF SITES. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
ENTER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

AIR WILL SPILL INTO CENTRAL NC BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE SE U.S.24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE ISSUE THAT LINGERS THIS EVENING.
WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 KTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES BUT ESPECIALLY AT KGSO/KINT THROUGH THE
EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

LONG TERM: A COASTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY AT
EASTERN TAF SITES. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
ENTER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.



&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SAT
FEB 13TH AND SUN FEB 14TH AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY:


       REC    YR     REC    YR
       LOW         LOW MAX
----------------------------------------------
GSO:
02/13   11   1955     31   1986
02/14    6   1905     22   1914

RDU:
02/13    4   1899     10   1899
02/14   -2   1899     27   1916

FAY:
02/13   14   1973     32   1955
02/14   12   1968     33   1916


&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...26/ELLIS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 110537
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A NARROW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SEND SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR THIS WINTER SEASON INTO
CENTRAL NC FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM WEDNESDAY...

TONIGHT: 00Z RAOB DATA INDICATE HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO
RISE THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...AS AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH BRIEFLY RETREATS/LIFTS UP THE NORTHEAST COAST. A
STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WAA REGIME AND AXIS OF LOW-MID LEVEL FGEN ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH --BENEATH THE EXIT REGION OF A
NEARLY 150 KT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER JET STREAK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO THE TN VALLEY-- HAS SUPPORTED A NARROW STRIPE OF LIGHT SNOW FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOSTLY RECENTLY...THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

THE NWP MODELS INSIST THAT THE UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED FORCING BELOW
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MIGRATES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AROUND THE BASE OF
THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS...OVERNIGHT. THIS WEAKENING FORCING AND
DISPERSING OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW RAIN-SHADOW EFFECT IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...SUPPORTS
THIS WEAKENING TREND ALREADY NOTED IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE CONSEQUENTLY ANTICIPATED
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING CENTRAL
NC WILL RESULT IN A SECONDARY SURGE OF CAA AND BL MIXING TONIGHT...
BUT WITH PERIODS OF CALM AND MAXIMIZED RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER
THE PIEDMONT ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT...AS A WEAK (1024 MB) SURFACE
HIGH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BUILDS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ASSOCIATED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WITH MINIMUM
WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE
TEENS. -26


THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES OUT TO
SEA. THICKNESSES WILL TAKE A WHILE TO RECOVER HOWEVER AND THE WARMER
THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. THEREFORE NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THURSDAY WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PLENTY OF SUN HOWEVER WITH BUT
STILL A LITTLE BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS OR SO. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL FEATURE A GRADIENT IN THE LOW TEMPERATURE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WITH UPPER TEENS NORTH TO MIDDLE 20S SOUTH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH HOLDING OVER ERN NOAM... A PERTURBATION NOW
COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RIDE ATOP THE WESTERN RIDGE
AND SHEAR OUT AS IT DIVES INTO THE TROUGH BASE AND EVENTUALLY
CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FRI GENERATING WEAK DPVA. THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE AUGMENTED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET DIVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST STATES... AND THIS WILL SUPPORT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT... TRACKING ACROSS AR AND THE GULF STATES/SRN GA/SRN SC
THU/THU NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE SC COAST FRI MORNING. THE
OVERALL LIFT IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER... AND THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS DO NOT SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW UNTIL IT IS
ALREADY WELL OFF THE COAST AND MOVING ENE AWAY FROM NC... KEEPING IT
RATHER WEAK AND FLAT WITHOUT A STRONG THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN.
MOISTURE IS ALSO UNIMPRESSIVE... WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MULTIPLE UNSATURATED LAYERS AND INCONSISTENT MOISTENING ABOVE -10C
THAT BRINGS DOUBT AS TO THE PRESENCE OF ICE ALOFT. WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO DEPICT VERY LIGHT TO NO QPF EXCEPT AS ONE GETS CLOSER
TO THE CENTRAL COASTAL AREA... WILL TAKE POPS AND AMOUNTS DOWNWARD
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THICKNESSES AND THE VERTICAL THERMAL
STRUCTURES NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A MOSTLY RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER THE FAR SE CWA... AND WHILE THIS IS THE AREA THAT IS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER BANDED PRECIP ON THE NW SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW... THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF A MIXTURE WILL KEEP ANY
ACCUMULATIONS VERY LOW... WITH ONLY A SLUSHY COATING AT MOST.
FURTHER INLAND... WITHIN THE COLDER THICKNESSES... ANY PRECIP SHOULD
BE LIGHT FLURRIES... YIELDING LITTLE MORE THAN A LIGHT DUSTING WITH
NO TRAVEL IMPACTS. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER FRI... WITH
CLEARING FRI NIGHT AS THE POLAR FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA... MOST LIKELY OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS 36-42 FRI AND
LOWS 21-28. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...

...BITTERLY COLD AIR THIS WEEKEND WITH A WINTRY WEATHER THREAT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

SAT/SUN: THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SE THROUGH THE CWA
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SAT WILL INTRODUCE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND A PLUNGE IN THICKNESSES (TO AROUND 80 M BELOW NORMAL)
AS A DENSE POLAR SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. THE
CORE OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO THE MIDATLANTIC BY SUN EVENING WHILE
EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH NC. EXPECT DECENT SUNSHINE WITH LITTLE MORE
THAN FLAT CU SAT AFTERNOON WITH MIXING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE BENEATH
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT... AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THE THICKNESSES PROJECTED BY THE
MODELS SUGGEST HIGHS BELOW FREEZING SAT ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64...
AND BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY... WITH LOWS AROUND 8 TO 15
SAT NIGHT. THE THICKNESS CLIMATOLOGY INDICATES THAT SINGLE DIGIT
LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT... BUT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF SOME MIXING
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT... HAVE OPTED ON THE "WARM" SIDE OF THIS
CLIMATOLOGY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS NE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.

MON THROUGH WED: MODEL DIFFERENCES WIDEN HEADING INTO MON AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS BEFORE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
ERN STATES BY MID WEEK. IN SHORT... THE ECMWF SOLUTION (AND THE
CANADIAN IS SIMILAR) WAS PREFERRED OVER THE GFS... WITH THE FORMER
APPEARING MORE REASONABLE AND FITTING BETTER WITH CLIMATOLOGY.
ACCORDING TO THIS SOLUTION... A POTENT PERTURBATION WILL SWING
THROUGH OK MON THEN DEEPEN OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY MON NIGHT
BEFORE CROSSING THE TN VALLEY/SE/CAROLINAS/MIDATLANTIC TUE INTO WED.
THE ECMWF BRINGS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DEEP LIFT STARTING
MON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE NIGHT... FINALLY SHIFTING TO OUR NE
WED... ALL THE WHILE TAKING A MILLER-B TYPE CYCLOGENESIS PATTERN
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE AS WELL AS QPF... BUT
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME PRECIP MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. AND IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT... WE`D BE LOOKING AT A VERY WET EVENT... WITH A CHANCE OF
MOSTLY SNOW MON TRENDING UP TO MOSTLY RAIN MON NIGHT AS POPS
INCREASE... INDICATING A LOWER OVERALL IMPACT FROM WINTRY WEATHER.
BUT A LOT CAN CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS... SO EVERYONE
SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS. TEMPS SHOULD START
TO WARM UP INTO THE 30S MON... INTO THE 40S TUE AS WE GET INTO THE
WARM SECTOR... AND PERHAPS LOW 50S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) WED AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW MOVES NE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS EXPECT
IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI WHERE EARLY MORNING GUSTS 14-18KTS MAY OCCUR.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM MAY BRING LOW END VFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO CENTRAL
NC...ESPECIALLY KRWI AND KFAY ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KRWI...AND KFAY. ARCTIC24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE ISSUE THAT LINGERS THIS EVENING.
WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 KTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES BUT ESPECIALLY AT KGSO/KINT THROUGH THE
EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

LONG TERM: A COASTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY AT
EASTERN TAF SITES. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
ENTER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

AIR WILL SPILL INTO CENTRAL NC BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE SE U.S.24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE ISSUE THAT LINGERS THIS EVENING.
WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 KTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES BUT ESPECIALLY AT KGSO/KINT THROUGH THE
EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

LONG TERM: A COASTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY AT
EASTERN TAF SITES. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
ENTER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.



&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SAT
FEB 13TH AND SUN FEB 14TH AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY:


       REC    YR     REC    YR
       LOW         LOW MAX
----------------------------------------------
GSO:
02/13   11   1955     31   1986
02/14    6   1905     22   1914

RDU:
02/13    4   1899     10   1899
02/14   -2   1899     27   1916

FAY:
02/13   14   1973     32   1955
02/14   12   1968     33   1916


&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...26/ELLIS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 110319
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1019 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE
RETREATS NORTH AND SUPPORTS COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM WEDNESDAY...

TONIGHT: 00Z RAOB DATA INDICATE HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO
RISE THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...AS AN
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH BRIEFLY RETREATS/LIFTS UP THE NORTHEAST COAST. A
STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WAA REGIME AND AXIS OF LOW-MID LEVEL FGEN ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH --BENEATH THE EXIT REGION OF A
NEARLY 150 KT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER JET STREAK FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO THE TN VALLEY-- HAS SUPPORTED A NARROW STRIPE OF LIGHT SNOW FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOSTLY RECENTLY...THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

THE NWP MODELS INSIST THAT THE UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED FORCING BELOW
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MIGRATES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AROUND THE BASE OF
THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS...OVERNIGHT. THIS WEAKENING FORCING AND
DISPERSING OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW RAIN-SHADOW EFFECT IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...SUPPORTS
THIS WEAKENING TREND ALREADY NOTED IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE CONSEQUENTLY ANTICIPATED
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK/SECONDARY COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING CENTRAL
NC WILL RESULT IN A SECONDARY SURGE OF CAA AND BL MIXING TONIGHT...
BUT WITH PERIODS OF CALM AND MAXIMIZED RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER
THE PIEDMONT ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT...AS A WEAK (1024 MB) SURFACE
HIGH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BUILDS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ASSOCIATED FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WITH MINIMUM
WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE
TEENS. -26


THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES OUT TO
SEA. THICKNESSES WILL TAKE A WHILE TO RECOVER HOWEVER AND THE WARMER
THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. THEREFORE NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THURSDAY WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PLENTY OF SUN HOWEVER WITH BUT
STILL A LITTLE BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS OR SO. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL FEATURE A GRADIENT IN THE LOW TEMPERATURE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WITH UPPER TEENS NORTH TO MIDDLE 20S SOUTH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH HOLDING OVER ERN NOAM... A PERTURBATION NOW
COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RIDE ATOP THE WESTERN RIDGE
AND SHEAR OUT AS IT DIVES INTO THE TROUGH BASE AND EVENTUALLY
CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FRI GENERATING WEAK DPVA. THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE AUGMENTED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET DIVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST STATES... AND THIS WILL SUPPORT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT... TRACKING ACROSS AR AND THE GULF STATES/SRN GA/SRN SC
THU/THU NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE SC COAST FRI MORNING. THE
OVERALL LIFT IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER... AND THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS DO NOT SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW UNTIL IT IS
ALREADY WELL OFF THE COAST AND MOVING ENE AWAY FROM NC... KEEPING IT
RATHER WEAK AND FLAT WITHOUT A STRONG THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN.
MOISTURE IS ALSO UNIMPRESSIVE... WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MULTIPLE UNSATURATED LAYERS AND INCONSISTENT MOISTENING ABOVE -10C
THAT BRINGS DOUBT AS TO THE PRESENCE OF ICE ALOFT. WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO DEPICT VERY LIGHT TO NO QPF EXCEPT AS ONE GETS CLOSER
TO THE CENTRAL COASTAL AREA... WILL TAKE POPS AND AMOUNTS DOWNWARD
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THICKNESSES AND THE VERTICAL THERMAL
STRUCTURES NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A MOSTLY RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER THE FAR SE CWA... AND WHILE THIS IS THE AREA THAT IS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER BANDED PRECIP ON THE NW SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW... THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF A MIXTURE WILL KEEP ANY
ACCUMULATIONS VERY LOW... WITH ONLY A SLUSHY COATING AT MOST.
FURTHER INLAND... WITHIN THE COLDER THICKNESSES... ANY PRECIP SHOULD
BE LIGHT FLURRIES... YIELDING LITTLE MORE THAN A LIGHT DUSTING WITH
NO TRAVEL IMPACTS. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER FRI... WITH
CLEARING FRI NIGHT AS THE POLAR FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA... MOST LIKELY OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS 36-42 FRI AND
LOWS 21-28. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...

...BITTERLY COLD AIR THIS WEEKEND WITH A WINTRY WEATHER THREAT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

SAT/SUN: THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SE THROUGH THE CWA
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SAT WILL INTRODUCE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND A PLUNGE IN THICKNESSES (TO AROUND 80 M BELOW NORMAL)
AS A DENSE POLAR SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. THE
CORE OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO THE MIDATLANTIC BY SUN EVENING WHILE
EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH NC. EXPECT DECENT SUNSHINE WITH LITTLE MORE
THAN FLAT CU SAT AFTERNOON WITH MIXING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE BENEATH
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT... AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THE THICKNESSES PROJECTED BY THE
MODELS SUGGEST HIGHS BELOW FREEZING SAT ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64...
AND BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY... WITH LOWS AROUND 8 TO 15
SAT NIGHT. THE THICKNESS CLIMATOLOGY INDICATES THAT SINGLE DIGIT
LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT... BUT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF SOME MIXING
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT... HAVE OPTED ON THE "WARM" SIDE OF THIS
CLIMATOLOGY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS NE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.

MON THROUGH WED: MODEL DIFFERENCES WIDEN HEADING INTO MON AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS BEFORE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
ERN STATES BY MID WEEK. IN SHORT... THE ECMWF SOLUTION (AND THE
CANADIAN IS SIMILAR) WAS PREFERRED OVER THE GFS... WITH THE FORMER
APPEARING MORE REASONABLE AND FITTING BETTER WITH CLIMATOLOGY.
ACCORDING TO THIS SOLUTION... A POTENT PERTURBATION WILL SWING
THROUGH OK MON THEN DEEPEN OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY MON NIGHT
BEFORE CROSSING THE TN VALLEY/SE/CAROLINAS/MIDATLANTIC TUE INTO WED.
THE ECMWF BRINGS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DEEP LIFT STARTING
MON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE NIGHT... FINALLY SHIFTING TO OUR NE
WED... ALL THE WHILE TAKING A MILLER-B TYPE CYCLOGENESIS PATTERN
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE AS WELL AS QPF... BUT
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME PRECIP MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. AND IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT... WE`D BE LOOKING AT A VERY WET EVENT... WITH A CHANCE OF
MOSTLY SNOW MON TRENDING UP TO MOSTLY RAIN MON NIGHT AS POPS
INCREASE... INDICATING A LOWER OVERALL IMPACT FROM WINTRY WEATHER.
BUT A LOT CAN CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS... SO EVERYONE
SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS. TEMPS SHOULD START
TO WARM UP INTO THE 30S MON... INTO THE 40S TUE AS WE GET INTO THE
WARM SECTOR... AND PERHAPS LOW 50S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) WED AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW MOVES NE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 635 PM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE ISSUE THAT LINGERS THIS EVENING.
WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 KTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES BUT ESPECIALLY AT KGSO/KINT THROUGH THE
EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

LONG TERM: A COASTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY AT
EASTERN TAF SITES. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
ENTER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SAT
FEB 13TH AND SUN FEB 14TH AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY:


       REC    YR     REC    YR
       LOW         LOW MAX
----------------------------------------------
GSO:
02/13   11   1955     31   1986
02/14    6   1905     22   1914

RDU:
02/13    4   1899     10   1899
02/14   -2   1899     27   1916

FAY:
02/13   14   1973     32   1955
02/14   12   1968     33   1916


&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26/ELLIS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BADGETT
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 110245
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
940 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: THE AXIS OF A 500 MB TROUGH CONTINUES TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT FEATURING WEST NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE CWA.
BECAUSE OF THIS GRADIENT COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY DEEP MIXED
LAYER...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN SOME BREEZY
WINDS WITH MOST LOCATIONS OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 10 KTS
GUSTING TO 20 KTS. THESE GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET
BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER...PROMOTING SOME
CLEARING FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT BUT INTERMITTENT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN. THIS ALONG WITH SOME WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FROM FORMING BUT NONETHELESS WITH A
VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S SHOULD BE EASILY
ATTAINABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES OUT TO
SEA. THICKNESSES WILL TAKE A WHILE TO RECOVER HOWEVER AND THE WARMER
THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. THEREFORE NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THURSDAY WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PLENTY OF SUN HOWEVER WITH BUT
STILL A LITTLE BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS OR SO. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL FEATURE A GRADIENT IN THE LOW TEMPERATURE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WITH UPPER TEENS NORTH TO MIDDLE 20S SOUTH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH HOLDING OVER ERN NOAM... A PERTURBATION NOW
COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RIDE ATOP THE WESTERN RIDGE
AND SHEAR OUT AS IT DIVES INTO THE TROUGH BASE AND EVENTUALLY
CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FRI GENERATING WEAK DPVA. THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE AUGMENTED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET DIVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST STATES... AND THIS WILL SUPPORT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT... TRACKING ACROSS AR AND THE GULF STATES/SRN GA/SRN SC
THU/THU NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE SC COAST FRI MORNING. THE
OVERALL LIFT IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER... AND THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS DO NOT SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW UNTIL IT IS
ALREADY WELL OFF THE COAST AND MOVING ENE AWAY FROM NC... KEEPING IT
RATHER WEAK AND FLAT WITHOUT A STRONG THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN.
MOISTURE IS ALSO UNIMPRESSIVE... WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MULTIPLE UNSATURATED LAYERS AND INCONSISTENT MOISTENING ABOVE -10C
THAT BRINGS DOUBT AS TO THE PRESENCE OF ICE ALOFT. WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO DEPICT VERY LIGHT TO NO QPF EXCEPT AS ONE GETS CLOSER
TO THE CENTRAL COASTAL AREA... WILL TAKE POPS AND AMOUNTS DOWNWARD
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THICKNESSES AND THE VERTICAL THERMAL
STRUCTURES NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A MOSTLY RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER THE FAR SE CWA... AND WHILE THIS IS THE AREA THAT IS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER BANDED PRECIP ON THE NW SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW... THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF A MIXTURE WILL KEEP ANY
ACCUMULATIONS VERY LOW... WITH ONLY A SLUSHY COATING AT MOST.
FURTHER INLAND... WITHIN THE COLDER THICKNESSES... ANY PRECIP SHOULD
BE LIGHT FLURRIES... YIELDING LITTLE MORE THAN A LIGHT DUSTING WITH
NO TRAVEL IMPACTS. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER FRI... WITH
CLEARING FRI NIGHT AS THE POLAR FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA... MOST LIKELY OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS 36-42 FRI AND
LOWS 21-28. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...

...BITTERLY COLD AIR THIS WEEKEND WITH A WINTRY WEATHER THREAT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

SAT/SUN: THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SE THROUGH THE CWA
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SAT WILL INTRODUCE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND A PLUNGE IN THICKNESSES (TO AROUND 80 M BELOW NORMAL)
AS A DENSE POLAR SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. THE
CORE OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO THE MIDATLANTIC BY SUN EVENING WHILE
EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH NC. EXPECT DECENT SUNSHINE WITH LITTLE MORE
THAN FLAT CU SAT AFTERNOON WITH MIXING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE BENEATH
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT... AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THE THICKNESSES PROJECTED BY THE
MODELS SUGGEST HIGHS BELOW FREEZING SAT ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64...
AND BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY... WITH LOWS AROUND 8 TO 15
SAT NIGHT. THE THICKNESS CLIMATOLOGY INDICATES THAT SINGLE DIGIT
LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT... BUT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF SOME MIXING
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT... HAVE OPTED ON THE "WARM" SIDE OF THIS
CLIMATOLOGY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS NE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.

MON THROUGH WED: MODEL DIFFERENCES WIDEN HEADING INTO MON AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS BEFORE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
ERN STATES BY MID WEEK. IN SHORT... THE ECMWF SOLUTION (AND THE
CANADIAN IS SIMILAR) WAS PREFERRED OVER THE GFS... WITH THE FORMER
APPEARING MORE REASONABLE AND FITTING BETTER WITH CLIMATOLOGY.
ACCORDING TO THIS SOLUTION... A POTENT PERTURBATION WILL SWING
THROUGH OK MON THEN DEEPEN OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY MON NIGHT
BEFORE CROSSING THE TN VALLEY/SE/CAROLINAS/MIDATLANTIC TUE INTO WED.
THE ECMWF BRINGS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DEEP LIFT STARTING
MON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE NIGHT... FINALLY SHIFTING TO OUR NE
WED... ALL THE WHILE TAKING A MILLER-B TYPE CYCLOGENESIS PATTERN
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE AS WELL AS QPF... BUT
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME PRECIP MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. AND IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT... WE`D BE LOOKING AT A VERY WET EVENT... WITH A CHANCE OF
MOSTLY SNOW MON TRENDING UP TO MOSTLY RAIN MON NIGHT AS POPS
INCREASE... INDICATING A LOWER OVERALL IMPACT FROM WINTRY WEATHER.
BUT A LOT CAN CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS... SO EVERYONE
SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS. TEMPS SHOULD START
TO WARM UP INTO THE 30S MON... INTO THE 40S TUE AS WE GET INTO THE
WARM SECTOR... AND PERHAPS LOW 50S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) WED AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW MOVES NE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 635 PM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE ISSUE THAT LINGERS THIS EVENING.
WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 KTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES BUT ESPECIALLY AT KGSO/KINT THROUGH THE
EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

LONG TERM: A COASTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY AT
EASTERN TAF SITES. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
ENTER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SAT
FEB 13TH AND SUN FEB 14TH AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY:


       REC    YR     REC    YR
       LOW         LOW MAX
----------------------------------------------
GSO:
02/13   11   1955     31   1986
02/14    6   1905     22   1914

RDU:
02/13    4   1899     10   1899
02/14   -2   1899     27   1916

FAY:
02/13   14   1973     32   1955
02/14   12   1968     33   1916


&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BADGETT
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 102033
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: THE AXIS OF A 500 MB TROUGH CONTINUES TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT FEATURING WEST NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE CWA.
BECAUSE OF THIS GRADIENT COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY DEEP MIXED
LAYER...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN SOME BREEZY
WINDS WITH MOST LOCATIONS OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 10 KTS
GUSTING TO 20 KTS. THESE GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET
BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER...PROMOTING SOME
CLEARING FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT BUT INTERMITTENT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN. THIS ALONG WITH SOME WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FROM FORMING BUT NONETHELESS WITH A
VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S SHOULD BE EASILY
ATTAINABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES OUT TO
SEA. THICKNESSES WILL TAKE A WHILE TO RECOVER HOWEVER AND THE WARMER
THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. THEREFORE NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THURSDAY WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PLENTY OF SUN HOWEVER WITH BUT
STILL A LITTLE BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS OR SO. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL FEATURE A GRADIENT IN THE LOW TEMPERATURE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WITH UPPER TEENS NORTH TO MIDDLE 20S SOUTH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH HOLDING OVER ERN NOAM... A PERTURBATION NOW
COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RIDE ATOP THE WESTERN RIDGE
AND SHEAR OUT AS IT DIVES INTO THE TROUGH BASE AND EVENTUALLY
CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FRI GENERATING WEAK DPVA. THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE AUGMENTED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET DIVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST STATES... AND THIS WILL SUPPORT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT... TRACKING ACROSS AR AND THE GULF STATES/SRN GA/SRN SC
THU/THU NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE SC COAST FRI MORNING. THE
OVERALL LIFT IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER... AND THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS DO NOT SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW UNTIL IT IS
ALREADY WELL OFF THE COAST AND MOVING ENE AWAY FROM NC... KEEPING IT
RATHER WEAK AND FLAT WITHOUT A STRONG THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN.
MOISTURE IS ALSO UNIMPRESSIVE... WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MULTIPLE UNSATURATED LAYERS AND INCONSISTENT MOISTENING ABOVE -10C
THAT BRINGS DOUBT AS TO THE PRESENCE OF ICE ALOFT. WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO DEPICT VERY LIGHT TO NO QPF EXCEPT AS ONE GETS CLOSER
TO THE CENTRAL COASTAL AREA... WILL TAKE POPS AND AMOUNTS DOWNWARD
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THICKNESSES AND THE VERTICAL THERMAL
STRUCTURES NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A MOSTLY RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER THE FAR SE CWA... AND WHILE THIS IS THE AREA THAT IS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER BANDED PRECIP ON THE NW SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW... THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF A MIXTURE WILL KEEP ANY
ACCUMULATIONS VERY LOW... WITH ONLY A SLUSHY COATING AT MOST.
FURTHER INLAND... WITHIN THE COLDER THICKNESSES... ANY PRECIP SHOULD
BE LIGHT FLURRIES... YIELDING LITTLE MORE THAN A LIGHT DUSTING WITH
NO TRAVEL IMPACTS. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER FRI... WITH
CLEARING FRI NIGHT AS THE POLAR FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA... MOST LIKELY OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS 36-42 FRI AND
LOWS 21-28. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...

...BITTERLY COLD AIR THIS WEEKEND WITH A WINTRY WEATHER THREAT EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

SAT/SUN: THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT DROPPING SE THROUGH THE CWA
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SAT WILL INTRODUCE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND A PLUNGE IN THICKNESSES (TO AROUND 80 M BELOW NORMAL)
AS A DENSE POLAR SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. THE
CORE OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TO THE MIDATLANTIC BY SUN EVENING WHILE
EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH NC. EXPECT DECENT SUNSHINE WITH LITTLE MORE
THAN FLAT CU SAT AFTERNOON WITH MIXING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE BENEATH
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT... AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THE THICKNESSES PROJECTED BY THE
MODELS SUGGEST HIGHS BELOW FREEZING SAT ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64...
AND BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY... WITH LOWS AROUND 8 TO 15
SAT NIGHT. THE THICKNESS CLIMATOLOGY INDICATES THAT SINGLE DIGIT
LOWS ARE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT... BUT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF SOME MIXING
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT... HAVE OPTED ON THE "WARM" SIDE OF THIS
CLIMATOLOGY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOWS SUN NIGHT IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS NE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.

MON THROUGH WED: MODEL DIFFERENCES WIDEN HEADING INTO MON AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS BEFORE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
ERN STATES BY MID WEEK. IN SHORT... THE ECMWF SOLUTION (AND THE
CANADIAN IS SIMILAR) WAS PREFERRED OVER THE GFS... WITH THE FORMER
APPEARING MORE REASONABLE AND FITTING BETTER WITH CLIMATOLOGY.
ACCORDING TO THIS SOLUTION... A POTENT PERTURBATION WILL SWING
THROUGH OK MON THEN DEEPEN OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY MON NIGHT
BEFORE CROSSING THE TN VALLEY/SE/CAROLINAS/MIDATLANTIC TUE INTO WED.
THE ECMWF BRINGS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DEEP LIFT STARTING
MON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE NIGHT... FINALLY SHIFTING TO OUR NE
WED... ALL THE WHILE TAKING A MILLER-B TYPE CYCLOGENESIS PATTERN
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE AS WELL AS QPF... BUT
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SOME PRECIP MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. AND IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT... WE`D BE LOOKING AT A VERY WET EVENT... WITH A CHANCE OF
MOSTLY SNOW MON TRENDING UP TO MOSTLY RAIN MON NIGHT AS POPS
INCREASE... INDICATING A LOWER OVERALL IMPACT FROM WINTRY WEATHER.
BUT A LOT CAN CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS... SO EVERYONE
SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS. TEMPS SHOULD START
TO WARM UP INTO THE 30S MON... INTO THE 40S TUE AS WE GET INTO THE
WARM SECTOR... AND PERHAPS LOW 50S (CLOSE TO NORMAL) WED AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW MOVES NE AWAY FROM OUR AREA. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 105 PM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE ISSUE OF THE DAY AS WEST
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 KTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL TAF SITES TODAY. WINDS WILL REGRESS AFTER SUNSET BUT WILL SHOW
UP AGAIN AFTER 15Z THURSDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...FOG OR LOW
STRATUS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MIDDLE TO
HIGH CEILINGS LATER IN THE DAY BUT NOTHING TO POSE A THREAT TO
AVIATION CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM: A COASTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY AT
EASTERN TAF SITES. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
ENTER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SAT
FEB 13TH AND SUN FEB 14TH AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY:


       REC    YR     REC    YR
       LOW         LOW MAX
----------------------------------------------
GSO:
02/13   11   1955     31   1986
02/14    6   1905     22   1914

RDU:
02/13    4   1899     10   1899
02/14   -2   1899     27   1916

FAY:
02/13   14   1973     32   1955
02/14   12   1968     33   1916


&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 102029
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
329 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: THE AXIS OF A 500 MB TROUGH CONTINUES TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT FEATURING WEST NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE CWA.
BECAUSE OF THIS GRADIENT COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY DEEP MIXED
LAYER...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN SOME BREEZY
WINDS WITH MOST LOCATIONS OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 10 KTS
GUSTING TO 20 KTS. THESE GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET
BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER...PROMOTING SOME
CLEARING FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT BUT INTERMITTENT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN. THIS ALONG WITH SOME WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FROM FORMING BUT NONETHELESS WITH A
VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S SHOULD BE EASILY
ATTAINABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AS
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES OUT TO
SEA. THICKNESSES WILL TAKE A WHILE TO RECOVER HOWEVER AND THE WARMER
THICKNESSES WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. THEREFORE NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THURSDAY WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PLENTY OF SUN HOWEVER WITH BUT
STILL A LITTLE BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS OR SO. THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL FEATURE A GRADIENT IN THE LOW TEMPERATURE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WITH UPPER TEENS NORTH TO MIDDLE 20S SOUTH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH HOLDING OVER ERN NOAM... A PERTURBATION NOW
COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RIDE ATOP THE WESTERN RIDGE
AND SHEAR OUT AS IT DIVES INTO THE TROUGH BASE AND EVENTUALLY
CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FRI GENERATING WEAK DPVA. THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE AUGMENTED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET DIVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST STATES... AND THIS WILL SUPPORT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT... TRACKING ACROSS AR AND THE GULF STATES/SRN GA/SRN SC
THU/THU NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE SC COAST FRI MORNING. THE
OVERALL LIFT IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER... AND THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS DO NOT SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW UNTIL IT IS
ALREADY WELL OFF THE COAST AND MOVING ENE AWAY FROM NC... KEEPING IT
RATHER WEAK AND FLAT WITHOUT A STRONG THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN.
MOISTURE IS ALSO UNIMPRESSIVE... WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MULTIPLE UNSATURATED LAYERS AND INCONSISTENT MOISTENING ABOVE -10C
THAT BRINGS DOUBT AS TO THE PRESENCE OF ICE ALOFT. WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO DEPICT VERY LIGHT TO NO QPF EXCEPT AS ONE GETS CLOSER
TO THE CENTRAL COASTAL AREA... WILL TAKE POPS AND AMOUNTS DOWNWARD
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THICKNESSES AND THE VERTICAL THERMAL
STRUCTURES NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A MOSTLY RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER THE FAR SE CWA... AND WHILE THIS IS THE AREA THAT IS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER BANDED PRECIP ON THE NW SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW... THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF A MIXTURE WILL KEEP ANY
ACCUMULATIONS VERY LOW... WITH ONLY A SLUSHY COATING AT MOST.
FURTHER INLAND... WITHIN THE COLDER THICKNESSES... ANY PRECIP SHOULD
BE LIGHT FLURRIES... YIELDING LITTLE MORE THAN A LIGHT DUSTING WITH
NO TRAVEL IMPACTS. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER FRI... WITH
CLEARING FRI NIGHT AS THE POLAR FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA... MOST LIKELY OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS 36-42 FRI AND
LOWS 21-28. -GIH

&&

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...


SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC
AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THE EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A
STRONG ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
AVERAGE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT
TEMPERATURES VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY:

ARCTIC HIGH WILL RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-TUESDAY.  WITH ANTECEDENT ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE...STRONG WAA ALOFT INTO A INSITU WEDGE WOULD RESULT
IN MIXED P-TYPE CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT...WITH EARLY
INDICATORS THAT THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREA NW PIEDMONT COULD
SEE A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT. RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 105 PM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE ISSUE OF THE DAY AS WEST
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 KTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL TAF SITES TODAY. WINDS WILL REGRESS AFTER SUNSET BUT WILL SHOW
UP AGAIN AFTER 15Z THURSDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...FOG OR LOW
STRATUS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MIDDLE TO
HIGH CEILINGS LATER IN THE DAY BUT NOTHING TO POSE A THREAT TO
AVIATION CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM: A COASTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY AT
EASTERN TAF SITES. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
ENTER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SAT
FEB 13TH AND SUN FEB 14TH AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY:


       REC    YR     REC    YR
       LOW         LOW MAX
----------------------------------------------
GSO:
02/13   11   1955     31   1986
02/14    6   1905     22   1914

RDU:
02/13    4   1899     10   1899
02/14   -2   1899     27   1916

FAY:
02/13   14   1973     32   1955
02/14   12   1968     33   1916


&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 101933
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...

VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES JUST STARTING TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
AREA BUT AS A SMALL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...COULD BEGIN
TO SEE SOME CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST MOSTLY AT THE MID AND HIGH
LEVELS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOVE 40S WITH COLDEST
TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS
WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED GUSTING TO 20 KTS. GUSTS WILL DIE
OFF AFTER SUNSET. FAIRLY DECENT CONDITIONS TONIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING BUT THE WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT OVERNIGHT...KEEPING LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY BOTTOMING OUT BUT STILL WILL SEE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...

WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH HOLDING OVER ERN NOAM... A PERTURBATION NOW
COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RIDE ATOP THE WESTERN RIDGE
AND SHEAR OUT AS IT DIVES INTO THE TROUGH BASE AND EVENTUALLY
CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FRI GENERATING WEAK DPVA. THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE AUGMENTED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET DIVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST STATES... AND THIS WILL SUPPORT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT... TRACKING ACROSS AR AND THE GULF STATES/SRN GA/SRN SC
THU/THU NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE SC COAST FRI MORNING. THE
OVERALL LIFT IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER... AND THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS DO NOT SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW UNTIL IT IS
ALREADY WELL OFF THE COAST AND MOVING ENE AWAY FROM NC... KEEPING IT
RATHER WEAK AND FLAT WITHOUT A STRONG THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN.
MOISTURE IS ALSO UNIMPRESSIVE... WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MULTIPLE UNSATURATED LAYERS AND INCONSISTENT MOISTENING ABOVE -10C
THAT BRINGS DOUBT AS TO THE PRESENCE OF ICE ALOFT. WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO DEPICT VERY LIGHT TO NO QPF EXCEPT AS ONE GETS CLOSER
TO THE CENTRAL COASTAL AREA... WILL TAKE POPS AND AMOUNTS DOWNWARD
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THICKNESSES AND THE VERTICAL THERMAL
STRUCTURES NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A MOSTLY RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER THE FAR SE CWA... AND WHILE THIS IS THE AREA THAT IS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER BANDED PRECIP ON THE NW SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW... THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF A MIXTURE WILL KEEP ANY
ACCUMULATIONS VERY LOW... WITH ONLY A SLUSHY COATING AT MOST.
FURTHER INLAND... WITHIN THE COLDER THICKNESSES... ANY PRECIP SHOULD
BE LIGHT FLURRIES... YIELDING LITTLE MORE THAN A LIGHT DUSTING WITH
NO TRAVEL IMPACTS. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER FRI... WITH
CLEARING FRI NIGHT AS THE POLAR FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA... MOST LIKELY OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS 36-42 FRI AND
LOWS 21-28. -GIH

&&

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...


SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC
AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THE EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A
STRONG ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
AVERAGE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT
TEMPERATURES VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY:

ARCTIC HIGH WILL RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-TUESDAY.  WITH ANTECEDENT ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE...STRONG WAA ALOFT INTO A INSITU WEDGE WOULD RESULT
IN MIXED P-TYPE CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT...WITH EARLY
INDICATORS THAT THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREA NW PIEDMONT COULD
SEE A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT. RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 105 PM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE ISSUE OF THE DAY AS WEST
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 KTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL TAF SITES TODAY. WINDS WILL REGRESS AFTER SUNSET BUT WILL SHOW
UP AGAIN AFTER 15Z THURSDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...FOG OR LOW
STRATUS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MIDDLE TO
HIGH CEILINGS LATER IN THE DAY BUT NOTHING TO POSE A THREAT TO
AVIATION CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM: A COASTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY AT
EASTERN TAF SITES. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
ENTER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SAT
FEB 13TH AND SUN FEB 14TH AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY:


       REC    YR     REC    YR
       LOW         LOW MAX
----------------------------------------------
GSO:
02/13   11   1955     31   1986
02/14    6   1905     22   1914

RDU:
02/13    4   1899     10   1899
02/14   -2   1899     27   1916

FAY:
02/13   14   1973     32   1955
02/14   12   1968     33   1916


&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 101809
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
108 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...

VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES JUST STARTING TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
AREA BUT AS A SMALL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...COULD BEGIN
TO SEE SOME CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST MOSTLY AT THE MID AND HIGH
LEVELS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOVE 40S WITH COLDEST
TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS
WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED GUSTING TO 20 KTS. GUSTS WILL DIE
OFF AFTER SUNSET. FAIRLY DECENT CONDITIONS TONIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING BUT THE WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT OVERNIGHT...KEEPING LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY BOTTOMING OUT BUT STILL WILL SEE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 341 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SETTLE OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AT LEAST ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIE OFF. THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WITH SOME WAA NOTED ALOFT.
THIS MAY HELP KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY BOTTOMING OUT THURSDAY
NIGHT. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THURSDAY... THEN PARTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. LOWS 17-22.

&&

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT:

SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ACCOMPANYING ~130KT JETSTREAK DIVING
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE DEEPENING ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE... ALL
MODELS INDICATE WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENSUE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST...BUT JUST HOW FAR/CLOSE IS STILL IN DEBATE
WITH FORECAST MODELS EXHIBITING LITTLE TO NO RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY
AT THIS TIME. OWING TO THE FIRST INSTALLMENT OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE
REGION...PARTIALS/NOMOGRAMS INDICATE ANY PRECIP WILL FALL AS MOSTLY
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. AS SUCH..THE BIGGEST QUESTION/GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IS JUST MUCH PRECIP/QPF WE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. GIVEN
THE LACK OF CONTINUITY/AGREEMENT IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL
SOLUTIONS...WILL USE AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH WITH BOTH THE GEFS AND
EC EPS INDICATING A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS INLAND OVER THE PIEDMONT. USING A 12-
10:1RATIO(SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE AVERAGE OWING TO THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE)...THAT WOULD SUPPORT AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH A DUSTING TO HALF INCH BACK OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES. STAY TUNE AS JUST A SLIGHT SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE
OF THE COASTAL LOW COULD KEEP PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA.


SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC
AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THE EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A
STRONG ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
AVERAGE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT
TEMPERATURES VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY:

ARCTIC HIGH WILL RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-TUESDAY.  WITH ANTECEDENT ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE...STRONG WAA ALOFT INTO A INSITU WEDGE WOULD RESULT
IN MIXED P-TYPE CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT...WITH EARLY
INDICATORS THAT THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREA NW PIEDMONT COULD
SEE A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT. RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 105 PM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE ISSUE OF THE DAY AS WEST
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 KTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL TAF SITES TODAY. WINDS WILL REGRESS AFTER SUNSET BUT WILL SHOW
UP AGAIN AFTER 15Z THURSDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...FOG OR LOW
STRATUS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MIDDLE TO
HIGH CEILINGS LATER IN THE DAY BUT NOTHING TO POSE A THREAT TO
AVIATION CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM: A COASTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY AT
EASTERN TAF SITES. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
ENTER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SAT
FEB 13TH AND SUN FEB 14TH AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY:


       REC    YR     REC    YR
       LOW         LOW MAX
----------------------------------------------
GSO:
02/13   11   1955     31   1986
02/14    6   1905     22   1914

RDU:
02/13    4   1899     10   1899
02/14   -2   1899     27   1916

FAY:
02/13   14   1973     32   1955
02/14   12   1968     33   1916


&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 101809
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
108 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...

VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES JUST STARTING TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
AREA BUT AS A SMALL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...COULD BEGIN
TO SEE SOME CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST MOSTLY AT THE MID AND HIGH
LEVELS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOVE 40S WITH COLDEST
TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS
WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED GUSTING TO 20 KTS. GUSTS WILL DIE
OFF AFTER SUNSET. FAIRLY DECENT CONDITIONS TONIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING BUT THE WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT OVERNIGHT...KEEPING LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY BOTTOMING OUT BUT STILL WILL SEE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 341 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SETTLE OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AT LEAST ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIE OFF. THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WITH SOME WAA NOTED ALOFT.
THIS MAY HELP KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY BOTTOMING OUT THURSDAY
NIGHT. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THURSDAY... THEN PARTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. LOWS 17-22.

&&

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT:

SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ACCOMPANYING ~130KT JETSTREAK DIVING
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE DEEPENING ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE... ALL
MODELS INDICATE WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENSUE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST...BUT JUST HOW FAR/CLOSE IS STILL IN DEBATE
WITH FORECAST MODELS EXHIBITING LITTLE TO NO RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY
AT THIS TIME. OWING TO THE FIRST INSTALLMENT OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE
REGION...PARTIALS/NOMOGRAMS INDICATE ANY PRECIP WILL FALL AS MOSTLY
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. AS SUCH..THE BIGGEST QUESTION/GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IS JUST MUCH PRECIP/QPF WE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. GIVEN
THE LACK OF CONTINUITY/AGREEMENT IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL
SOLUTIONS...WILL USE AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH WITH BOTH THE GEFS AND
EC EPS INDICATING A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS INLAND OVER THE PIEDMONT. USING A 12-
10:1RATIO(SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE AVERAGE OWING TO THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE)...THAT WOULD SUPPORT AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH A DUSTING TO HALF INCH BACK OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES. STAY TUNE AS JUST A SLIGHT SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE
OF THE COASTAL LOW COULD KEEP PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA.


SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC
AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THE EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A
STRONG ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
AVERAGE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT
TEMPERATURES VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY:

ARCTIC HIGH WILL RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-TUESDAY.  WITH ANTECEDENT ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE...STRONG WAA ALOFT INTO A INSITU WEDGE WOULD RESULT
IN MIXED P-TYPE CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT...WITH EARLY
INDICATORS THAT THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREA NW PIEDMONT COULD
SEE A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT. RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 105 PM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE ISSUE OF THE DAY AS WEST
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 KTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL TAF SITES TODAY. WINDS WILL REGRESS AFTER SUNSET BUT WILL SHOW
UP AGAIN AFTER 15Z THURSDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...FOG OR LOW
STRATUS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MIDDLE TO
HIGH CEILINGS LATER IN THE DAY BUT NOTHING TO POSE A THREAT TO
AVIATION CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM: A COASTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY AT
EASTERN TAF SITES. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
ENTER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SAT
FEB 13TH AND SUN FEB 14TH AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY:


       REC    YR     REC    YR
       LOW         LOW MAX
----------------------------------------------
GSO:
02/13   11   1955     31   1986
02/14    6   1905     22   1914

RDU:
02/13    4   1899     10   1899
02/14   -2   1899     27   1916

FAY:
02/13   14   1973     32   1955
02/14   12   1968     33   1916


&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 101809
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
108 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...

VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES JUST STARTING TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
AREA BUT AS A SMALL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...COULD BEGIN
TO SEE SOME CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST MOSTLY AT THE MID AND HIGH
LEVELS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOVE 40S WITH COLDEST
TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS
WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED GUSTING TO 20 KTS. GUSTS WILL DIE
OFF AFTER SUNSET. FAIRLY DECENT CONDITIONS TONIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING BUT THE WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT OVERNIGHT...KEEPING LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY BOTTOMING OUT BUT STILL WILL SEE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 341 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SETTLE OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AT LEAST ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIE OFF. THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WITH SOME WAA NOTED ALOFT.
THIS MAY HELP KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY BOTTOMING OUT THURSDAY
NIGHT. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THURSDAY... THEN PARTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. LOWS 17-22.

&&

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT:

SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ACCOMPANYING ~130KT JETSTREAK DIVING
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE DEEPENING ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE... ALL
MODELS INDICATE WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENSUE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST...BUT JUST HOW FAR/CLOSE IS STILL IN DEBATE
WITH FORECAST MODELS EXHIBITING LITTLE TO NO RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY
AT THIS TIME. OWING TO THE FIRST INSTALLMENT OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE
REGION...PARTIALS/NOMOGRAMS INDICATE ANY PRECIP WILL FALL AS MOSTLY
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. AS SUCH..THE BIGGEST QUESTION/GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IS JUST MUCH PRECIP/QPF WE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. GIVEN
THE LACK OF CONTINUITY/AGREEMENT IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL
SOLUTIONS...WILL USE AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH WITH BOTH THE GEFS AND
EC EPS INDICATING A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS INLAND OVER THE PIEDMONT. USING A 12-
10:1RATIO(SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE AVERAGE OWING TO THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE)...THAT WOULD SUPPORT AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH A DUSTING TO HALF INCH BACK OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES. STAY TUNE AS JUST A SLIGHT SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE
OF THE COASTAL LOW COULD KEEP PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA.


SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC
AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THE EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A
STRONG ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
AVERAGE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT
TEMPERATURES VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY:

ARCTIC HIGH WILL RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-TUESDAY.  WITH ANTECEDENT ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE...STRONG WAA ALOFT INTO A INSITU WEDGE WOULD RESULT
IN MIXED P-TYPE CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT...WITH EARLY
INDICATORS THAT THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREA NW PIEDMONT COULD
SEE A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT. RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 105 PM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE ISSUE OF THE DAY AS WEST
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 KTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL TAF SITES TODAY. WINDS WILL REGRESS AFTER SUNSET BUT WILL SHOW
UP AGAIN AFTER 15Z THURSDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...FOG OR LOW
STRATUS SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME MIDDLE TO
HIGH CEILINGS LATER IN THE DAY BUT NOTHING TO POSE A THREAT TO
AVIATION CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM: A COASTAL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY AT
EASTERN TAF SITES. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
ENTER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SAT
FEB 13TH AND SUN FEB 14TH AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY:


       REC    YR     REC    YR
       LOW         LOW MAX
----------------------------------------------
GSO:
02/13   11   1955     31   1986
02/14    6   1905     22   1914

RDU:
02/13    4   1899     10   1899
02/14   -2   1899     27   1916

FAY:
02/13   14   1973     32   1955
02/14   12   1968     33   1916


&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 101544
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1045 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...

VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES JUST STARTING TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
AREA BUT AS A SMALL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...COULD BEGIN
TO SEE SOME CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST MOSTLY AT THE MID AND HIGH
LEVELS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOVE 40S WITH COLDEST
TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS
WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED GUSTING TO 20 KTS. GUSTS WILL DIE
OFF AFTER SUNSET. FAIRLY DECENT CONDITIONS TONIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING BUT THE WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT OVERNIGHT...KEEPING LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY BOTTOMING OUT BUT STILL WILL SEE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 341 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SETTLE OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AT LEAST ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIE OFF. THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WITH SOME WAA NOTED ALOFT.
THIS MAY HELP KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY BOTTOMING OUT THURSDAY
NIGHT. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THURSDAY... THEN PARTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. LOWS 17-22.

&&

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT:

SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ACCOMPANYING ~130KT JETSTREAK DIVING
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE DEEPENING ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE... ALL
MODELS INDICATE WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENSUE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST...BUT JUST HOW FAR/CLOSE IS STILL IN DEBATE
WITH FORECAST MODELS EXHIBITING LITTLE TO NO RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY
AT THIS TIME. OWING TO THE FIRST INSTALLMENT OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE
REGION...PARTIALS/NOMOGRAMS INDICATE ANY PRECIP WILL FALL AS MOSTLY
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. AS SUCH..THE BIGGEST QUESTION/GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IS JUST MUCH PRECIP/QPF WE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. GIVEN
THE LACK OF CONTINUITY/AGREEMENT IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL
SOLUTIONS...WILL USE AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH WITH BOTH THE GEFS AND
EC EPS INDICATING A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS INLAND OVER THE PIEDMONT. USING A 12-
10:1RATIO(SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE AVERAGE OWING TO THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE)...THAT WOULD SUPPORT AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH A DUSTING TO HALF INCH BACK OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES. STAY TUNE AS JUST A SLIGHT SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE
OF THE COASTAL LOW COULD KEEP PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA.


SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC
AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THE EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A
STRONG ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
AVERAGE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT
TEMPERATURES VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY:

ARCTIC HIGH WILL RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-TUESDAY.  WITH ANTECEDENT ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE...STRONG WAA ALOFT INTO A INSITU WEDGE WOULD RESULT
IN MIXED P-TYPE CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT...WITH EARLY
INDICATORS THAT THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREA NW PIEDMONT COULD
SEE A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT. RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH... PERIODICALLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS AND
CEILING NEAR 3K FT WITH MVFR VISBYS (MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS). GIVEN THE EXPECTED BRIEF NATURE OF THE PRECIP AND MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO WHEN A VERY LIGHT SHOWER WILL AFFECT A
GIVEN LOCATION WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT ANY PRECIP FROM THE TAFS.
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT....
THOUGH GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 10 KT RANGE. WIND ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE BY MID TO LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK: THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NC ON FRIDAY...
WHERE WE MAY SEE A WINDOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP.

&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SAT
FEB 13TH AND SUN FEB 14TH AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY:


       REC    YR     REC    YR
       LOW         LOW MAX
----------------------------------------------
GSO:
02/13   11   1955     31   1986
02/14    6   1905     22   1914

RDU:
02/13    4   1899     10   1899
02/14   -2   1899     27   1916

FAY:
02/13   14   1973     32   1955
02/14   12   1968     33   1916


&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 101527
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1027 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...

VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES JUST STARTING TO CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
AREA BUT AS A SMALL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...COULD BEGIN
TO SEE SOME CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST MOSTLY AT THE MID AND HIGH
LEVELS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOVE 40S WITH COLDEST
TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. A LITTLE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS
WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED GUSTING TO 20 KTS. GUSTS WILL DIE
OFF AFTER SUNSET. FAIRLY DECENT CONDITIONS TONIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING BUT THE WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT OVERNIGHT...KEEPING LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY BOTTOMING OUT BUT STILL WILL SEE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 341 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SETTLE OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AT LEAST ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIE OFF. THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WITH SOME WAA NOTED ALOFT.
THIS MAY HELP KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY BOTTOMING OUT THURSDAY
NIGHT. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THURSDAY... THEN PARTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. LOWS 17-22.

&&

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT:

SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ACCOMPANYING ~130KT JETSTREAK DIVING
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE DEEPENING ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE... ALL
MODELS INDICATE WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENSUE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST...BUT JUST HOW FAR/CLOSE IS STILL IN DEBATE
WITH FORECAST MODELS EXHIBITING LITTLE TO NO RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY
AT THIS TIME. OWING TO THE FIRST INSTALLMENT OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE
REGION...PARTIALS/NOMOGRAMS INDICATE ANY PRECIP WILL FALL AS MOSTLY
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. AS SUCH..THE BIGGEST QUESTION/GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IS JUST MUCH PRECIP/QPF WE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. GIVEN
THE LACK OF CONTINUITY/AGREEMENT IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL
SOLUTIONS...WILL USE AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH WITH BOTH THE GEFS AND
EC EPS INDICATING A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS INLAND OVER THE PIEDMONT. USING A 12-
10:1RATIO(SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE AVERAGE OWING TO THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE)...THAT WOULD SUPPORT AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH A DUSTING TO HALF INCH BACK OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES. STAY TUNE AS JUST A SLIGHT SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE
OF THE COASTAL LOW COULD KEEP PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA.


SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC
AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THE EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A
STRONG ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
AVERAGE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT
TEMPERATURES VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY:

ARCTIC HIGH WILL RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-TUESDAY.  WITH ANTECEDENT ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE...STRONG WAA ALOFT INTO A INSITU WEDGE WOULD RESULT
IN MIXED P-TYPE CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT...WITH EARLY
INDICATORS THAT THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREA NW PIEDMONT COULD
SEE A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT. RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH... PERIODICALLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS AND
CEILING NEAR 3K FT WITH MVFR VISBYS (MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS). GIVEN THE EXPECTED BRIEF NATURE OF THE PRECIP AND MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO WHEN A VERY LIGHT SHOWER WILL AFFECT A
GIVEN LOCATION WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT ANY PRECIP FROM THE TAFS.
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT....
THOUGH GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 10 KT RANGE. WIND ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE BY MID TO LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK: THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NC ON FRIDAY...
WHERE WE MAY SEE A WINDOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 100852
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
350 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 341 AM WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE HEART OF THE
COLD UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AT TIMES BETWEEN 5 AND 8K FEET THAT THE SKIES
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ZONES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT THE COLDER
GUIDANCE VALUES AND WE WILL TREND THAT WAY. EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY 35-
38 NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S SE. WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE RATHER GUSTY
10-20 MPH. TONIGHT... BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD. LOWS 15-22.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 341 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SETTLE OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AT LEAST ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIE OFF. THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WITH SOME WAA NOTED ALOFT.
THIS MAY HELP KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY BOTTOMING OUT THURSDAY
NIGHT. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THURSDAY... THEN PARTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. LOWS 17-22.

&&

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT:

SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ACCOMPANYING ~130KT JETSTREAK DIVING
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE DEEPENING ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE... ALL
MODELS INDICATE WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENSUE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST...BUT JUST HOW FAR/CLOSE IS STILL IN DEBATE
WITH FORECAST MODELS EXHIBITING LITTLE TO NO RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY
AT THIS TIME. OWING TO THE FIRST INSTALLMENT OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE
REGION...PARTIALS/NOMOGRAMS INDICATE ANY PRECIP WILL FALL AS MOSTLY
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. AS SUCH..THE BIGGEST QUESTION/GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IS JUST MUCH PRECIP/QPF WE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH. GIVEN
THE LACK OF CONTINUITY/AGREEMENT IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL
SOLUTIONS...WILL USE AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH WITH BOTH THE GEFS AND
EC EPS INDICATING A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS INLAND OVER THE PIEDMONT. USING A 12-
10:1RATIO(SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE AVERAGE OWING TO THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE)...THAT WOULD SUPPORT AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH A DUSTING TO HALF INCH BACK OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES. STAY TUNE AS JUST A SLIGHT SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE
OF THE COASTAL LOW COULD KEEP PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA.


SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC
AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THE EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A
STRONG ~1040MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
AVERAGE 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT
TEMPERATURES VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY:

ARCTIC HIGH WILL RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-TUESDAY.  WITH ANTECEDENT ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE...STRONG WAA ALOFT INTO A INSITU WEDGE WOULD RESULT
IN MIXED P-TYPE CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT...WITH EARLY
INDICATORS THAT THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREA NW PIEDMONT COULD
SEE A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT. RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH... PERIODICALLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS AND
CEILING NEAR 3K FT WITH MVFR VISBYS (MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS). GIVEN THE EXPECTED BRIEF NATURE OF THE PRECIP AND MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO WHEN A VERY LIGHT SHOWER WILL AFFECT A
GIVEN LOCATION WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT ANY PRECIP FROM THE TAFS.
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT....
THOUGH GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 10 KT RANGE. WIND ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE BY MID TO LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK: THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NC ON FRIDAY...
WHERE WE MAY SEE A WINDOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 100844
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
341 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 341 AM WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE HEART OF THE
COLD UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AT TIMES BETWEEN 5 AND 8K FEET THAT THE SKIES
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ZONES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT THE COLDER
GUIDANCE VALUES AND WE WILL TREND THAT WAY. EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY 35-
38 NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S SE. WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE RATHER GUSTY
10-20 MPH. TONIGHT... BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD. LOWS 15-22.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 341 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SETTLE OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AT LEAST ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIE OFF. THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WITH SOME WAA NOTED ALOFT.
THIS MAY HELP KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY BOTTOMING OUT THURSDAY
NIGHT. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THURSDAY... THEN PARTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. LOWS 17-22.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

MAJOR NEWS IS OF COURSE THE SERIES OF IMPULSES WHICH WILL DIVE INTO
THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THICKNESSES SUPPORT MINIMUM TEMPS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW AND MID 20S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE STRONGEST IN THE
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
MOISTURE PROFILE IS SKINNY WITH VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE LOW
AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY...THUS IMPACTS WILL
BE NEGLIGIBLE AND OUR ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK FINE.

STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
THIS STRONGER WAVE...SO DESPITE SUNNY SKIES....HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...WITH
PERHAPS SOME VERY LOW 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND LOOSENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 DEGREES NORTH TO 15 OR 16
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON VALENTINES DAY (SUNDAY) MORNING. THE FRIGID AIRMASS
WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ON SUNDAY.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT MODERATION IN
WEAK WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON MONDAY.
WITH THE FRIGID AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...THIS PRESENTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT-LIVED COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT LATE MONDAY
INTO PERHAPS EARLY TUESDAY WHICH WOULD LIKELY FEATURE SOME P-TYPE
TRANSITION CONCERNS ACROSS THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED PIEDMONT.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW THIS WILL PLAY
OUT DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FEATURES...FOR EXAMPLE THE
LATEST ECMWF SHOWS A STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING WHICH WOULD SCOUR
THE COLD AIR QUICKLY...BUT ALSO PROLONG THE EVENT AND INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN WE MIGHT EXPECT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL
INTRODUCE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY AND HIGHS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH... PERIODICALLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS AND
CEILING NEAR 3K FT WITH MVFR VISBYS (MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS). GIVEN THE EXPECTED BRIEF NATURE OF THE PRECIP AND MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO WHEN A VERY LIGHT SHOWER WILL AFFECT A
GIVEN LOCATION WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT ANY PRECIP FROM THE TAFS.
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT....
THOUGH GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 10 KT RANGE. WIND ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE BY MID TO LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK: THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NC ON FRIDAY...
WHERE WE MAY SEE A WINDOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BADGETT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 100844
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
341 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 341 AM WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE HEART OF THE
COLD UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AT TIMES BETWEEN 5 AND 8K FEET THAT THE SKIES
BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ZONES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT THE COLDER
GUIDANCE VALUES AND WE WILL TREND THAT WAY. EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY 35-
38 NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S SE. WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE RATHER GUSTY
10-20 MPH. TONIGHT... BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD. LOWS 15-22.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 341 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PARENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SETTLE OVERHEAD
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AT LEAST ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIE OFF. THERE
SHOULD ALSO BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WITH SOME WAA NOTED ALOFT.
THIS MAY HELP KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY BOTTOMING OUT THURSDAY
NIGHT. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THURSDAY... THEN PARTLY CLOUDY THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. LOWS 17-22.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

MAJOR NEWS IS OF COURSE THE SERIES OF IMPULSES WHICH WILL DIVE INTO
THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THICKNESSES SUPPORT MINIMUM TEMPS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW AND MID 20S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE STRONGEST IN THE
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
MOISTURE PROFILE IS SKINNY WITH VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE LOW
AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY...THUS IMPACTS WILL
BE NEGLIGIBLE AND OUR ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK FINE.

STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
THIS STRONGER WAVE...SO DESPITE SUNNY SKIES....HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...WITH
PERHAPS SOME VERY LOW 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND LOOSENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 DEGREES NORTH TO 15 OR 16
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON VALENTINES DAY (SUNDAY) MORNING. THE FRIGID AIRMASS
WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ON SUNDAY.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT MODERATION IN
WEAK WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON MONDAY.
WITH THE FRIGID AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...THIS PRESENTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT-LIVED COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT LATE MONDAY
INTO PERHAPS EARLY TUESDAY WHICH WOULD LIKELY FEATURE SOME P-TYPE
TRANSITION CONCERNS ACROSS THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED PIEDMONT.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW THIS WILL PLAY
OUT DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FEATURES...FOR EXAMPLE THE
LATEST ECMWF SHOWS A STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING WHICH WOULD SCOUR
THE COLD AIR QUICKLY...BUT ALSO PROLONG THE EVENT AND INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN WE MIGHT EXPECT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL
INTRODUCE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY AND HIGHS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH... PERIODICALLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS AND
CEILING NEAR 3K FT WITH MVFR VISBYS (MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS). GIVEN THE EXPECTED BRIEF NATURE OF THE PRECIP AND MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO WHEN A VERY LIGHT SHOWER WILL AFFECT A
GIVEN LOCATION WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT ANY PRECIP FROM THE TAFS.
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT....
THOUGH GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 10 KT RANGE. WIND ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE BY MID TO LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK: THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NC ON FRIDAY...
WHERE WE MAY SEE A WINDOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 100541
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED /MERIDIONAL/ SYNOPTIC PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE
CONUS THIS EVENING...CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP RIDGING INVOF THE PACIFIC
COAST AND DEEP TROUGHING INVOF THE ATLANTIC COAST. CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA IS SITUATED VERY NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A ~150 KT CURVED JET (PER 00Z KJAX RAOB).
STRONG CYCLONIC SHEAR VORTICITY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED JET WILL AID IN MAINTAINING MID-LEVEL CEILINGS/VIRGA
ON THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
SUBSIDENCE ATTENDANT STRONG SFC-H7 COLD ADVECTION WILL PRECLUDE ANY
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S
IN THE NW PIEDMONT TO MID/UPPER 30S IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN...
DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY COLD ADVECTION. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...

A SHOT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD OFFSET DOWNSLOPE FLOW A BIT
MORE WEDNESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP FROM -10C TO -15C
DURING THE DAY.  1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE ALSO SET TO DROP ABOUT
30M.  WITH MORNING LOWS STARTING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...IT SEEMS
LIKE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO
850MB USING THE NAM AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST.  CONSIDERING DOWNSLOPE FLOW...FORECAST HIGHS
WILL BE 35-41. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY OR EVEN MOSTLY SUNNY AS
MUCH OF THE 850-700MB MOISTURE OVER US TODAY WILL DEPART TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN 700MB TROUGH.  LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE INT HE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

MAJOR NEWS IS OF COURSE THE SERIES OF IMPULSES WHICH WILL DIVE INTO
THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THICKNESSES SUPPORT MINIMUM TEMPS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW AND MID 20S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE STRONGEST IN THE
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
MOISTURE PROFILE IS SKINNY WITH VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE LOW
AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY...THUS IMPACTS WILL
BE NEGLIGIBLE AND OUR ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK FINE.

STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
THIS STRONGER WAVE...SO DESPITE SUNNY SKIES....HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...WITH
PERHAPS SOME VERY LOW 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND LOOSENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 DEGREES NORTH TO 15 OR 16
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON VALENTINES DAY (SUNDAY) MORNING. THE FRIGID AIRMASS
WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ON SUNDAY.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT MODERATION IN
WEAK WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON MONDAY.
WITH THE FRIGID AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...THIS PRESENTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT-LIVED COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT LATE MONDAY
INTO PERHAPS EARLY TUESDAY WHICH WOULD LIKELY FEATURE SOME P-TYPE
TRANSITION CONCERNS ACROSS THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED PIEDMONT.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW THIS WILL PLAY
OUT DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FEATURES...FOR EXAMPLE THE
LATEST ECMWF SHOWS A STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING WHICH WOULD SCOUR
THE COLD AIR QUICKLY...BUT ALSO PROLONG THE EVENT AND INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN WE MIGHT EXPECT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL
INTRODUCE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY AND HIGHS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH... PERIODICALLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS AND
CEILING NEAR 3K FT WITH MVFR VISBYS (MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS). GIVEN THE EXPECTED BRIEF NATURE OF THE PRECIP AND MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO WHEN A VERY LIGHT SHOWER WILL AFFECT A
GIVEN LOCATION WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT ANY PRECIP FROM THE TAFS.
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT....
THOUGH GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 10 KT RANGE. WIND ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE BY MID TO LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK: THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NC ON FRIDAY...
WHERE WE MAY SEE A WINDOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 100541
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED /MERIDIONAL/ SYNOPTIC PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE
CONUS THIS EVENING...CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP RIDGING INVOF THE PACIFIC
COAST AND DEEP TROUGHING INVOF THE ATLANTIC COAST. CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA IS SITUATED VERY NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A ~150 KT CURVED JET (PER 00Z KJAX RAOB).
STRONG CYCLONIC SHEAR VORTICITY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED JET WILL AID IN MAINTAINING MID-LEVEL CEILINGS/VIRGA
ON THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
SUBSIDENCE ATTENDANT STRONG SFC-H7 COLD ADVECTION WILL PRECLUDE ANY
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S
IN THE NW PIEDMONT TO MID/UPPER 30S IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN...
DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY COLD ADVECTION. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...

A SHOT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD OFFSET DOWNSLOPE FLOW A BIT
MORE WEDNESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP FROM -10C TO -15C
DURING THE DAY.  1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE ALSO SET TO DROP ABOUT
30M.  WITH MORNING LOWS STARTING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...IT SEEMS
LIKE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO
850MB USING THE NAM AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST.  CONSIDERING DOWNSLOPE FLOW...FORECAST HIGHS
WILL BE 35-41. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY OR EVEN MOSTLY SUNNY AS
MUCH OF THE 850-700MB MOISTURE OVER US TODAY WILL DEPART TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN 700MB TROUGH.  LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE INT HE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

MAJOR NEWS IS OF COURSE THE SERIES OF IMPULSES WHICH WILL DIVE INTO
THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THICKNESSES SUPPORT MINIMUM TEMPS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW AND MID 20S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE STRONGEST IN THE
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
MOISTURE PROFILE IS SKINNY WITH VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE LOW
AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY...THUS IMPACTS WILL
BE NEGLIGIBLE AND OUR ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK FINE.

STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
THIS STRONGER WAVE...SO DESPITE SUNNY SKIES....HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...WITH
PERHAPS SOME VERY LOW 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND LOOSENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 DEGREES NORTH TO 15 OR 16
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON VALENTINES DAY (SUNDAY) MORNING. THE FRIGID AIRMASS
WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ON SUNDAY.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT MODERATION IN
WEAK WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON MONDAY.
WITH THE FRIGID AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...THIS PRESENTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT-LIVED COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT LATE MONDAY
INTO PERHAPS EARLY TUESDAY WHICH WOULD LIKELY FEATURE SOME P-TYPE
TRANSITION CONCERNS ACROSS THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED PIEDMONT.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW THIS WILL PLAY
OUT DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FEATURES...FOR EXAMPLE THE
LATEST ECMWF SHOWS A STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING WHICH WOULD SCOUR
THE COLD AIR QUICKLY...BUT ALSO PROLONG THE EVENT AND INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN WE MIGHT EXPECT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL
INTRODUCE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY AND HIGHS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH... PERIODICALLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS AND
CEILING NEAR 3K FT WITH MVFR VISBYS (MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS). GIVEN THE EXPECTED BRIEF NATURE OF THE PRECIP AND MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO WHEN A VERY LIGHT SHOWER WILL AFFECT A
GIVEN LOCATION WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT ANY PRECIP FROM THE TAFS.
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT....
THOUGH GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 10 KT RANGE. WIND ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE BY MID TO LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK: THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NC ON FRIDAY...
WHERE WE MAY SEE A WINDOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BADGETT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 100541
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED /MERIDIONAL/ SYNOPTIC PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE
CONUS THIS EVENING...CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP RIDGING INVOF THE PACIFIC
COAST AND DEEP TROUGHING INVOF THE ATLANTIC COAST. CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA IS SITUATED VERY NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A ~150 KT CURVED JET (PER 00Z KJAX RAOB).
STRONG CYCLONIC SHEAR VORTICITY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED JET WILL AID IN MAINTAINING MID-LEVEL CEILINGS/VIRGA
ON THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
SUBSIDENCE ATTENDANT STRONG SFC-H7 COLD ADVECTION WILL PRECLUDE ANY
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S
IN THE NW PIEDMONT TO MID/UPPER 30S IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN...
DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY COLD ADVECTION. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...

A SHOT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD OFFSET DOWNSLOPE FLOW A BIT
MORE WEDNESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP FROM -10C TO -15C
DURING THE DAY.  1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE ALSO SET TO DROP ABOUT
30M.  WITH MORNING LOWS STARTING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...IT SEEMS
LIKE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO
850MB USING THE NAM AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST.  CONSIDERING DOWNSLOPE FLOW...FORECAST HIGHS
WILL BE 35-41. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY OR EVEN MOSTLY SUNNY AS
MUCH OF THE 850-700MB MOISTURE OVER US TODAY WILL DEPART TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN 700MB TROUGH.  LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE INT HE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

MAJOR NEWS IS OF COURSE THE SERIES OF IMPULSES WHICH WILL DIVE INTO
THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THICKNESSES SUPPORT MINIMUM TEMPS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW AND MID 20S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE STRONGEST IN THE
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
MOISTURE PROFILE IS SKINNY WITH VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE LOW
AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY...THUS IMPACTS WILL
BE NEGLIGIBLE AND OUR ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK FINE.

STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
THIS STRONGER WAVE...SO DESPITE SUNNY SKIES....HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...WITH
PERHAPS SOME VERY LOW 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND LOOSENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 DEGREES NORTH TO 15 OR 16
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON VALENTINES DAY (SUNDAY) MORNING. THE FRIGID AIRMASS
WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ON SUNDAY.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT MODERATION IN
WEAK WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON MONDAY.
WITH THE FRIGID AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...THIS PRESENTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT-LIVED COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT LATE MONDAY
INTO PERHAPS EARLY TUESDAY WHICH WOULD LIKELY FEATURE SOME P-TYPE
TRANSITION CONCERNS ACROSS THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED PIEDMONT.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW THIS WILL PLAY
OUT DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FEATURES...FOR EXAMPLE THE
LATEST ECMWF SHOWS A STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING WHICH WOULD SCOUR
THE COLD AIR QUICKLY...BUT ALSO PROLONG THE EVENT AND INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN WE MIGHT EXPECT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL
INTRODUCE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY AND HIGHS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH... PERIODICALLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS AND
CEILING NEAR 3K FT WITH MVFR VISBYS (MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS). GIVEN THE EXPECTED BRIEF NATURE OF THE PRECIP AND MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO WHEN A VERY LIGHT SHOWER WILL AFFECT A
GIVEN LOCATION WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT ANY PRECIP FROM THE TAFS.
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT....
THOUGH GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 10 KT RANGE. WIND ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE BY MID TO LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK: THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NC ON FRIDAY...
WHERE WE MAY SEE A WINDOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BADGETT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 100307
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1007 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED /MERIDIONAL/ SYNOPTIC PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE
CONUS THIS EVENING...CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP RIDGING INVOF THE PACIFIC
COAST AND DEEP TROUGHING INVOF THE ATLANTIC COAST. CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA IS SITUATED VERY NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A ~150 KT CURVED JET (PER 00Z KJAX RAOB).
STRONG CYCLONIC SHEAR VORTICITY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED JET WILL AID IN MAINTAINING MID-LEVEL CEILINGS/VIRGA
ON THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
SUBSIDENCE ATTENDANT STRONG SFC-H7 COLD ADVECTION WILL PRECLUDE ANY
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S
IN THE NW PIEDMONT TO MID/UPPER 30S IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN...
DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY COLD ADVECTION. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...

A SHOT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD OFFSET DOWNSLOPE FLOW A BIT
MORE WEDNESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP FROM -10C TO -15C
DURING THE DAY.  1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE ALSO SET TO DROP ABOUT
30M.  WITH MORNING LOWS STARTING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...IT SEEMS
LIKE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO
850MB USING THE NAM AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST.  CONSIDERING DOWNSLOPE FLOW...FORECAST HIGHS
WILL BE 35-41. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY OR EVEN MOSTLY SUNNY AS
MUCH OF THE 850-700MB MOISTURE OVER US TODAY WILL DEPART TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN 700MB TROUGH.  LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE INT HE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

MAJOR NEWS IS OF COURSE THE SERIES OF IMPULSES WHICH WILL DIVE INTO
THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THICKNESSES SUPPORT MINIMUM TEMPS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW AND MID 20S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE STRONGEST IN THE
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
MOISTURE PROFILE IS SKINNY WITH VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE LOW
AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY...THUS IMPACTS WILL
BE NEGLIGIBLE AND OUR ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK FINE.

STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
THIS STRONGER WAVE...SO DESPITE SUNNY SKIES....HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...WITH
PERHAPS SOME VERY LOW 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND LOOSENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 DEGREES NORTH TO 15 OR 16
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON VALENTINES DAY (SUNDAY) MORNING. THE FRIGID AIRMASS
WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ON SUNDAY.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT MODERATION IN
WEAK WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON MONDAY.
WITH THE FRIGID AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...THIS PRESENTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT-LIVED COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT LATE MONDAY
INTO PERHAPS EARLY TUESDAY WHICH WOULD LIKELY FEATURE SOME P-TYPE
TRANSITION CONCERNS ACROSS THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED PIEDMONT.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW THIS WILL PLAY
OUT DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FEATURES...FOR EXAMPLE THE
LATEST ECMWF SHOWS A STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING WHICH WOULD SCOUR
THE COLD AIR QUICKLY...BUT ALSO PROLONG THE EVENT AND INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN WE MIGHT EXPECT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL
INTRODUCE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY AND HIGHS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH... PERIODICALLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS AND
CEILING NEAR 3K FT WITH MVFR VISBYS (MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS). GIVEN THE EXPECTED BRIEF NATURE OF THE PRECIP AND MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO WHEN A VERY LIGHT SHOWER WILL AFFECT A
GIVEN LOCATION WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT ANY PRECIP FROM THE TAFS.
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT....
THOUGH GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE. WIND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 9 TO 14 KT RANGE BY MID TO LATE
MORNING WEDNESDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO 23 KTS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK: THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NC ON FRIDAY...
WHERE WE MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...7/SMITH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 100151
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
850 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...

WITHIN A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WITH THE 700MB TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST
AND QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB...COINCIDENT
WITH THE -12 TO -18C LAYER...THE CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.  A LEAD BATCH OF SHOWERS
DEPARTING THE COASTAL PLAIN HAS REPORTEDLY BEEN ALL LIQUID (THOUGH
SOME SLEET IS LIKELY MIXING IN)...WHILE LIGHTER REFLECTIVITIES
MOVING THROUGH ALAMANCE/RANDOLPH/CHATHAM IS MOSTLY FLURRIES.  THIS
WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE RACING THROUGH TN THAT COULD BRING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING...THOUGH
THE GFS IS REALLY THE ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE THIS. ANY SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES WOULD BE OF NO IMPACT.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG
AROUND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY BEGINNING TO CLEAR
LATE...AS LOWS DIP IN THE LOW/MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...

A SHOT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD OFFSET DOWNSLOPE FLOW A BIT
MORE WEDNESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP FROM -10C TO -15C
DURING THE DAY.  1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE ALSO SET TO DROP ABOUT
30M.  WITH MORNING LOWS STARTING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...IT SEEMS
LIKE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO
850MB USING THE NAM AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST.  CONSIDERING DOWNSLOPE FLOW...FORECAST HIGHS
WILL BE 35-41. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY OR EVEN MOSTLY SUNNY AS
MUCH OF THE 850-700MB MOISTURE OVER US TODAY WILL DEPART TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN 700MB TROUGH.  LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE INT HE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

MAJOR NEWS IS OF COURSE THE SERIES OF IMPULSES WHICH WILL DIVE INTO
THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THICKNESSES SUPPORT MINIMUM TEMPS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW AND MID 20S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE STRONGEST IN THE
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
MOISTURE PROFILE IS SKINNY WITH VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE LOW
AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY...THUS IMPACTS WILL
BE NEGLIGIBLE AND OUR ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK FINE.

STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
THIS STRONGER WAVE...SO DESPITE SUNNY SKIES....HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...WITH
PERHAPS SOME VERY LOW 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND LOOSENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 DEGREES NORTH TO 15 OR 16
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON VALENTINES DAY (SUNDAY) MORNING. THE FRIGID AIRMASS
WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ON SUNDAY.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT MODERATION IN
WEAK WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON MONDAY.
WITH THE FRIGID AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...THIS PRESENTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT-LIVED COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT LATE MONDAY
INTO PERHAPS EARLY TUESDAY WHICH WOULD LIKELY FEATURE SOME P-TYPE
TRANSITION CONCERNS ACROSS THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED PIEDMONT.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW THIS WILL PLAY
OUT DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FEATURES...FOR EXAMPLE THE
LATEST ECMWF SHOWS A STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING WHICH WOULD SCOUR
THE COLD AIR QUICKLY...BUT ALSO PROLONG THE EVENT AND INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN WE MIGHT EXPECT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL
INTRODUCE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY AND HIGHS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH... PERIODICALLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS AND
CEILING NEAR 3K FT WITH MVFR VISBYS (MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS). GIVEN THE EXPECTED BRIEF NATURE OF THE PRECIP AND MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO WHEN A VERY LIGHT SHOWER WILL AFFECT A
GIVEN LOCATION WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT ANY PRECIP FROM THE TAFS.
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT....
THOUGH GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE. WIND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 9 TO 14 KT RANGE BY MID TO LATE
MORNING WEDNESDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO 23 KTS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK: THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NC ON FRIDAY...
WHERE WE MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...7/SMITH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 100151
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
850 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...

WITHIN A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WITH THE 700MB TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST
AND QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB...COINCIDENT
WITH THE -12 TO -18C LAYER...THE CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.  A LEAD BATCH OF SHOWERS
DEPARTING THE COASTAL PLAIN HAS REPORTEDLY BEEN ALL LIQUID (THOUGH
SOME SLEET IS LIKELY MIXING IN)...WHILE LIGHTER REFLECTIVITIES
MOVING THROUGH ALAMANCE/RANDOLPH/CHATHAM IS MOSTLY FLURRIES.  THIS
WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE RACING THROUGH TN THAT COULD BRING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING...THOUGH
THE GFS IS REALLY THE ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE THIS. ANY SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES WOULD BE OF NO IMPACT.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG
AROUND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY BEGINNING TO CLEAR
LATE...AS LOWS DIP IN THE LOW/MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...

A SHOT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD OFFSET DOWNSLOPE FLOW A BIT
MORE WEDNESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP FROM -10C TO -15C
DURING THE DAY.  1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE ALSO SET TO DROP ABOUT
30M.  WITH MORNING LOWS STARTING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...IT SEEMS
LIKE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO
850MB USING THE NAM AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST.  CONSIDERING DOWNSLOPE FLOW...FORECAST HIGHS
WILL BE 35-41. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY OR EVEN MOSTLY SUNNY AS
MUCH OF THE 850-700MB MOISTURE OVER US TODAY WILL DEPART TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN 700MB TROUGH.  LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE INT HE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

MAJOR NEWS IS OF COURSE THE SERIES OF IMPULSES WHICH WILL DIVE INTO
THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THICKNESSES SUPPORT MINIMUM TEMPS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW AND MID 20S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE STRONGEST IN THE
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
MOISTURE PROFILE IS SKINNY WITH VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE LOW
AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY...THUS IMPACTS WILL
BE NEGLIGIBLE AND OUR ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK FINE.

STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
THIS STRONGER WAVE...SO DESPITE SUNNY SKIES....HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...WITH
PERHAPS SOME VERY LOW 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND LOOSENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 DEGREES NORTH TO 15 OR 16
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON VALENTINES DAY (SUNDAY) MORNING. THE FRIGID AIRMASS
WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ON SUNDAY.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT MODERATION IN
WEAK WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON MONDAY.
WITH THE FRIGID AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...THIS PRESENTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT-LIVED COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT LATE MONDAY
INTO PERHAPS EARLY TUESDAY WHICH WOULD LIKELY FEATURE SOME P-TYPE
TRANSITION CONCERNS ACROSS THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED PIEDMONT.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW THIS WILL PLAY
OUT DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FEATURES...FOR EXAMPLE THE
LATEST ECMWF SHOWS A STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING WHICH WOULD SCOUR
THE COLD AIR QUICKLY...BUT ALSO PROLONG THE EVENT AND INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN WE MIGHT EXPECT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL
INTRODUCE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY AND HIGHS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH... PERIODICALLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS AND
CEILING NEAR 3K FT WITH MVFR VISBYS (MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS). GIVEN THE EXPECTED BRIEF NATURE OF THE PRECIP AND MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO WHEN A VERY LIGHT SHOWER WILL AFFECT A
GIVEN LOCATION WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT ANY PRECIP FROM THE TAFS.
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT....
THOUGH GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE. WIND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 9 TO 14 KT RANGE BY MID TO LATE
MORNING WEDNESDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO 23 KTS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK: THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NC ON FRIDAY...
WHERE WE MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...7/SMITH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 100151
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
850 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...

WITHIN A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WITH THE 700MB TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST
AND QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB...COINCIDENT
WITH THE -12 TO -18C LAYER...THE CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.  A LEAD BATCH OF SHOWERS
DEPARTING THE COASTAL PLAIN HAS REPORTEDLY BEEN ALL LIQUID (THOUGH
SOME SLEET IS LIKELY MIXING IN)...WHILE LIGHTER REFLECTIVITIES
MOVING THROUGH ALAMANCE/RANDOLPH/CHATHAM IS MOSTLY FLURRIES.  THIS
WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE RACING THROUGH TN THAT COULD BRING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING...THOUGH
THE GFS IS REALLY THE ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE THIS. ANY SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES WOULD BE OF NO IMPACT.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG
AROUND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY BEGINNING TO CLEAR
LATE...AS LOWS DIP IN THE LOW/MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...

A SHOT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD OFFSET DOWNSLOPE FLOW A BIT
MORE WEDNESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP FROM -10C TO -15C
DURING THE DAY.  1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE ALSO SET TO DROP ABOUT
30M.  WITH MORNING LOWS STARTING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...IT SEEMS
LIKE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO
850MB USING THE NAM AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST.  CONSIDERING DOWNSLOPE FLOW...FORECAST HIGHS
WILL BE 35-41. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY OR EVEN MOSTLY SUNNY AS
MUCH OF THE 850-700MB MOISTURE OVER US TODAY WILL DEPART TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN 700MB TROUGH.  LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE INT HE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

MAJOR NEWS IS OF COURSE THE SERIES OF IMPULSES WHICH WILL DIVE INTO
THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THICKNESSES SUPPORT MINIMUM TEMPS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW AND MID 20S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE STRONGEST IN THE
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
MOISTURE PROFILE IS SKINNY WITH VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE LOW
AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY...THUS IMPACTS WILL
BE NEGLIGIBLE AND OUR ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK FINE.

STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
THIS STRONGER WAVE...SO DESPITE SUNNY SKIES....HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...WITH
PERHAPS SOME VERY LOW 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND LOOSENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 DEGREES NORTH TO 15 OR 16
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON VALENTINES DAY (SUNDAY) MORNING. THE FRIGID AIRMASS
WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ON SUNDAY.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT MODERATION IN
WEAK WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON MONDAY.
WITH THE FRIGID AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...THIS PRESENTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT-LIVED COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT LATE MONDAY
INTO PERHAPS EARLY TUESDAY WHICH WOULD LIKELY FEATURE SOME P-TYPE
TRANSITION CONCERNS ACROSS THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED PIEDMONT.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW THIS WILL PLAY
OUT DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FEATURES...FOR EXAMPLE THE
LATEST ECMWF SHOWS A STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING WHICH WOULD SCOUR
THE COLD AIR QUICKLY...BUT ALSO PROLONG THE EVENT AND INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN WE MIGHT EXPECT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL
INTRODUCE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY AND HIGHS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH... PERIODICALLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS AND
CEILING NEAR 3K FT WITH MVFR VISBYS (MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS). GIVEN THE EXPECTED BRIEF NATURE OF THE PRECIP AND MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO WHEN A VERY LIGHT SHOWER WILL AFFECT A
GIVEN LOCATION WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT ANY PRECIP FROM THE TAFS.
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT....
THOUGH GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE. WIND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 9 TO 14 KT RANGE BY MID TO LATE
MORNING WEDNESDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO 23 KTS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK: THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NC ON FRIDAY...
WHERE WE MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...7/SMITH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 091953
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...

WITHIN A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WITH THE 700MB TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST
AND QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB...COINCIDENT
WITH THE -12 TO -18C LAYER...THE CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.  A LEAD BATCH OF SHOWERS
DEPARTING THE COASTAL PLAIN HAS REPORTEDLY BEEN ALL LIQUID (THOUGH
SOME SLEET IS LIKELY MIXING IN)...WHILE LIGHTER REFLECTIVITIES
MOVING THROUGH ALAMANCE/RANDOLPH/CHATHAM IS MOSTLY FLURRIES.  THIS
WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE RACING THROUGH TN THAT COULD BRING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING...THOUGH
THE GFS IS REALLY THE ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE THIS. ANY SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES WOULD BE OF NO IMPACT.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG
AROUND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY BEGINNING TO CLEAR
LATE...AS LOWS DIP IN THE LOW/MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...

A SHOT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHOULD OFFSET DOWNSLOPE FLOW A BIT
MORE WEDNESDAY AS 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP FROM -10C TO -15C
DURING THE DAY.  1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE ALSO SET TO DROP ABOUT
30M.  WITH MORNING LOWS STARTING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...IT SEEMS
LIKE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO WARM. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO
850MB USING THE NAM AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST.  CONSIDERING DOWNSLOPE FLOW...FORECAST HIGHS
WILL BE 35-41. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY OR EVEN MOSTLY SUNNY AS
MUCH OF THE 850-700MB MOISTURE OVER US TODAY WILL DEPART TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN 700MB TROUGH.  LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE INT HE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

MAJOR NEWS IS OF COURSE THE SERIES OF IMPULSES WHICH WILL DIVE INTO
THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THICKNESSES SUPPORT MINIMUM TEMPS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW AND MID 20S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE STRONGEST IN THE
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
MOISTURE PROFILE IS SKINNY WITH VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE LOW
AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY...THUS IMPACTS WILL
BE NEGLIGIBLE AND OUR ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK FINE.

STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
THIS STRONGER WAVE...SO DESPITE SUNNY SKIES....HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...WITH
PERHAPS SOME VERY LOW 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND LOOSENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 DEGREES NORTH TO 15 OR 16
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON VALENTINES DAY (SUNDAY) MORNING. THE FRIGID AIRMASS
WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ON SUNDAY.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT MODERATION IN
WEAK WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON MONDAY.
WITH THE FRIGID AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...THIS PRESENTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT-LIVED COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT LATE MONDAY
INTO PERHAPS EARLY TUESDAY WHICH WOULD LIKELY FEATURE SOME P-TYPE
TRANSITION CONCERNS ACROSS THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED PIEDMONT.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW THIS WILL PLAY
OUT DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FEATURES...FOR EXAMPLE THE
LATEST ECMWF SHOWS A STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING WHICH WOULD SCOUR
THE COLD AIR QUICKLY...BUT ALSO PROLONG THE EVENT AND INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN WE MIGHT EXPECT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL
INTRODUCE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY AND HIGHS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM TUESDAY...

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY...WITH
DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH PERIODICALLY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND CEILING NEAR 3K FT.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM KRDU
EAST...PRIMARILY AROUND TAF SITE KRWI.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE...SUBSIDING TO 5-10KT TONIGHT...WHILE AREAS
OF 10K FT  ALTOCU DRIFT OVERHEAD.  THE CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP LOOKS
MUCH LESS ON WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES.  WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH ONLY GUSTING TO 15-20KT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NC ON FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 091947
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...

WITHIN A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  ONE DISTURBANCE IS DEPARTING THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS MORNING...AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK RADAR ECHOES EAST OF I-
95 WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER...WITH STILL
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB AND PERIODS OF FOCUS
LIFT...THE CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
TODAY.  THE GFS IS THE MAIN MODEL TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF
LIFT AND MOISTURE...KEYING ON A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
MISSOURI THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON..TO
PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF.  THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
SHOW MUCH LESS POTENTIAL...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AFTER 18Z.  EVEN WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BASED LARGELY ON DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO
850MB... WETBULB PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY A VERY SHALLOW LAYER BELOW
~1000 FT WOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO ISOLATED RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS...OR SLEET...ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST MID/UPPER COLD
TROUGH WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT OUT. HOWEVER... THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE AFTERNOON AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A PASSING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. LOWS
TONIGHT 20-25. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES. LOWS 15-20 NORTH TO 20-25 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

MAJOR NEWS IS OF COURSE THE SERIES OF IMPULSES WHICH WILL DIVE INTO
THE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND REINFORCE THE COLD AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THICKNESSES SUPPORT MINIMUM TEMPS
MOSTLY IN THE LOW AND MID 20S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE STRONGEST IN THE
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
MOISTURE PROFILE IS SKINNY WITH VERY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE LOW
AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY...THUS IMPACTS WILL
BE NEGLIGIBLE AND OUR ONGOING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK FINE.

STRONG COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
THIS STRONGER WAVE...SO DESPITE SUNNY SKIES....HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGE TO REACH THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...WITH
PERHAPS SOME VERY LOW 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND LOOSENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. MINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 DEGREES NORTH TO 15 OR 16
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON VALENTINES DAY (SUNDAY) MORNING. THE FRIGID AIRMASS
WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ON SUNDAY.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT MODERATION IN
WEAK WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON MONDAY.
WITH THE FRIGID AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...THIS PRESENTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT-LIVED COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT LATE MONDAY
INTO PERHAPS EARLY TUESDAY WHICH WOULD LIKELY FEATURE SOME P-TYPE
TRANSITION CONCERNS ACROSS THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED PIEDMONT.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW THIS WILL PLAY
OUT DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FEATURES...FOR EXAMPLE THE
LATEST ECMWF SHOWS A STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING WHICH WOULD SCOUR
THE COLD AIR QUICKLY...BUT ALSO PROLONG THE EVENT AND INCREASE THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN WE MIGHT EXPECT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL
INTRODUCE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY AND HIGHS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM TUESDAY...

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY...WITH
DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH PERIODICALLY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND CEILING NEAR 3K FT.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM KRDU
EAST...PRIMARILY AROUND TAF SITE KRWI.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE...SUBSIDING TO 5-10KT TONIGHT...WHILE AREAS
OF 10K FT  ALTOCU DRIFT OVERHEAD.  THE CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP LOOKS
MUCH LESS ON WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES.  WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH ONLY GUSTING TO 15-20KT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NC ON FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 091740
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...

WITHIN A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  ONE DISTURBANCE IS DEPARTING THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS MORNING...AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK RADAR ECHOES EAST OF I-
95 WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER...WITH STILL
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB AND PERIODS OF FOCUS
LIFT...THE CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
TODAY.  THE GFS IS THE MAIN MODEL TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF
LIFT AND MOISTURE...KEYING ON A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
MISSOURI THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON..TO
PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF.  THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
SHOW MUCH LESS POTENTIAL...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AFTER 18Z.  EVEN WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BASED LARGELY ON DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO
850MB... WETBULB PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY A VERY SHALLOW LAYER BELOW
~1000 FT WOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO ISOLATED RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS...OR SLEET...ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST MID/UPPER COLD
TROUGH WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT OUT. HOWEVER... THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE AFTERNOON AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A PASSING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. LOWS
TONIGHT 20-25. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES. LOWS 15-20 NORTH TO 20-25 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

THE COLD THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERN US
TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE RELOADING OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH GETS UNDERWAY COURTESY
OF A STRONG ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN
THE INITIAL EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A STRONG ~1040MB
ARCTIC HIGH...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES
VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH A CLIPPER LIKE WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING
WEAK SFC WAVE REFLECTION THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COULD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH NW FLOW EVENTS ALONG WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S...IMPACTS SHOULD
BE NEGLIGIBLE.

ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH ANTECEDENT POLAR
AIRMASS IN PLACE...COLD AIR DAMMING COULD PRESENT MIXED P-TYPE
CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM TUESDAY...

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY...WITH
DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH PERIODICALLY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND CEILING NEAR 3K FT.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM KRDU
EAST...PRIMARILY AROUND TAF SITE KRWI.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE...SUBSIDING TO 5-10KT TONIGHT...WHILE AREAS
OF 10K FT  ALTOCU DRIFT OVERHEAD.  THE CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP LOOKS
MUCH LESS ON WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES.  WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH ONLY GUSTING TO 15-20KT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NC ON FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 091740
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...

WITHIN A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  ONE DISTURBANCE IS DEPARTING THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS MORNING...AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK RADAR ECHOES EAST OF I-
95 WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER...WITH STILL
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB AND PERIODS OF FOCUS
LIFT...THE CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
TODAY.  THE GFS IS THE MAIN MODEL TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF
LIFT AND MOISTURE...KEYING ON A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
MISSOURI THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON..TO
PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF.  THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
SHOW MUCH LESS POTENTIAL...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AFTER 18Z.  EVEN WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BASED LARGELY ON DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO
850MB... WETBULB PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY A VERY SHALLOW LAYER BELOW
~1000 FT WOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO ISOLATED RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS...OR SLEET...ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST MID/UPPER COLD
TROUGH WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT OUT. HOWEVER... THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE AFTERNOON AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A PASSING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. LOWS
TONIGHT 20-25. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES. LOWS 15-20 NORTH TO 20-25 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

THE COLD THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERN US
TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE RELOADING OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH GETS UNDERWAY COURTESY
OF A STRONG ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN
THE INITIAL EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A STRONG ~1040MB
ARCTIC HIGH...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES
VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH A CLIPPER LIKE WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING
WEAK SFC WAVE REFLECTION THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COULD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH NW FLOW EVENTS ALONG WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S...IMPACTS SHOULD
BE NEGLIGIBLE.

ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH ANTECEDENT POLAR
AIRMASS IN PLACE...COLD AIR DAMMING COULD PRESENT MIXED P-TYPE
CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM TUESDAY...

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY...WITH
DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH PERIODICALLY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND CEILING NEAR 3K FT.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM KRDU
EAST...PRIMARILY AROUND TAF SITE KRWI.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE...SUBSIDING TO 5-10KT TONIGHT...WHILE AREAS
OF 10K FT  ALTOCU DRIFT OVERHEAD.  THE CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP LOOKS
MUCH LESS ON WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES.  WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH ONLY GUSTING TO 15-20KT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NC ON FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...SMITH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 091740
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...

WITHIN A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  ONE DISTURBANCE IS DEPARTING THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS MORNING...AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK RADAR ECHOES EAST OF I-
95 WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER...WITH STILL
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB AND PERIODS OF FOCUS
LIFT...THE CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
TODAY.  THE GFS IS THE MAIN MODEL TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF
LIFT AND MOISTURE...KEYING ON A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
MISSOURI THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON..TO
PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF.  THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
SHOW MUCH LESS POTENTIAL...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AFTER 18Z.  EVEN WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BASED LARGELY ON DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO
850MB... WETBULB PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY A VERY SHALLOW LAYER BELOW
~1000 FT WOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO ISOLATED RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS...OR SLEET...ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST MID/UPPER COLD
TROUGH WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT OUT. HOWEVER... THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE AFTERNOON AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A PASSING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. LOWS
TONIGHT 20-25. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES. LOWS 15-20 NORTH TO 20-25 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

THE COLD THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERN US
TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE RELOADING OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH GETS UNDERWAY COURTESY
OF A STRONG ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN
THE INITIAL EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A STRONG ~1040MB
ARCTIC HIGH...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES
VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH A CLIPPER LIKE WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING
WEAK SFC WAVE REFLECTION THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COULD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH NW FLOW EVENTS ALONG WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S...IMPACTS SHOULD
BE NEGLIGIBLE.

ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH ANTECEDENT POLAR
AIRMASS IN PLACE...COLD AIR DAMMING COULD PRESENT MIXED P-TYPE
CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM TUESDAY...

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY...WITH
DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH PERIODICALLY
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND CEILING NEAR 3K FT.  THE BEST
CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM KRDU
EAST...PRIMARILY AROUND TAF SITE KRWI.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE...SUBSIDING TO 5-10KT TONIGHT...WHILE AREAS
OF 10K FT  ALTOCU DRIFT OVERHEAD.  THE CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP LOOKS
MUCH LESS ON WEDNESDAY AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES.  WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH ONLY GUSTING TO 15-20KT.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NC ON FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 091501
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...

WITHIN A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  ONE DISTURBANCE IS DEPARTING THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS MORNING...AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK RADAR ECHOES EAST OF I-
95 WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER...WITH STILL
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB AND PERIODS OF FOCUS
LIFT...THE CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
TODAY.  THE GFS IS THE MAIN MODEL TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF
LIFT AND MOISTURE...KEYING ON A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
MISSOURI THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON..TO
PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF.  THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
SHOW MUCH LESS POTENTIAL...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AFTER 18Z.  EVEN WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BASED LARGELY ON DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO
850MB... WETBULB PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY A VERY SHALLOW LAYER BELOW
~1000 FT WOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO ISOLATED RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS...OR SLEET...ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST MID/UPPER COLD
TROUGH WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT OUT. HOWEVER... THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE AFTERNOON AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A PASSING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. LOWS
TONIGHT 20-25. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES. LOWS 15-20 NORTH TO 20-25 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

THE COLD THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERN US
TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE RELOADING OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH GETS UNDERWAY COURTESY
OF A STRONG ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN
THE INITIAL EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A STRONG ~1040MB
ARCTIC HIGH...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES
VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH A CLIPPER LIKE WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING
WEAK SFC WAVE REFLECTION THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COULD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH NW FLOW EVENTS ALONG WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S...IMPACTS SHOULD
BE NEGLIGIBLE.

ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH ANTECEDENT POLAR
AIRMASS IN PLACE...COLD AIR DAMMING COULD PRESENT MIXED P-TYPE
CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF FOG HAVE LIFTED TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS. MIXING WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS
TO INCREASE TO TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE... THE WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL INCREASE TO 10-
15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS THIS AFTERNOON... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS
AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING... AND
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. NO VSBYS OR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. THEN VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 091501
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...

WITHIN A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  ONE DISTURBANCE IS DEPARTING THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS MORNING...AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK RADAR ECHOES EAST OF I-
95 WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER...WITH STILL
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB AND PERIODS OF FOCUS
LIFT...THE CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
TODAY.  THE GFS IS THE MAIN MODEL TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF
LIFT AND MOISTURE...KEYING ON A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
MISSOURI THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON..TO
PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF.  THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
SHOW MUCH LESS POTENTIAL...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AFTER 18Z.  EVEN WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BASED LARGELY ON DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO
850MB... WETBULB PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY A VERY SHALLOW LAYER BELOW
~1000 FT WOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO ISOLATED RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS...OR SLEET...ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST MID/UPPER COLD
TROUGH WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT OUT. HOWEVER... THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE AFTERNOON AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A PASSING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. LOWS
TONIGHT 20-25. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES. LOWS 15-20 NORTH TO 20-25 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

THE COLD THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERN US
TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE RELOADING OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH GETS UNDERWAY COURTESY
OF A STRONG ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN
THE INITIAL EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A STRONG ~1040MB
ARCTIC HIGH...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES
VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH A CLIPPER LIKE WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING
WEAK SFC WAVE REFLECTION THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COULD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH NW FLOW EVENTS ALONG WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S...IMPACTS SHOULD
BE NEGLIGIBLE.

ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH ANTECEDENT POLAR
AIRMASS IN PLACE...COLD AIR DAMMING COULD PRESENT MIXED P-TYPE
CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF FOG HAVE LIFTED TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS. MIXING WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS
TO INCREASE TO TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE... THE WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL INCREASE TO 10-
15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS THIS AFTERNOON... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS
AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING... AND
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. NO VSBYS OR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. THEN VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 091501
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...

WITHIN A VERY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  ONE DISTURBANCE IS DEPARTING THE COASTAL
PLAIN THIS MORNING...AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK RADAR ECHOES EAST OF I-
95 WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER...WITH STILL
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB AND PERIODS OF FOCUS
LIFT...THE CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
TODAY.  THE GFS IS THE MAIN MODEL TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF
LIFT AND MOISTURE...KEYING ON A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
MISSOURI THAT SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON..TO
PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF.  THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
SHOW MUCH LESS POTENTIAL...WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AFTER 18Z.  EVEN WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BASED LARGELY ON DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO
850MB... WETBULB PROFILES SUGGEST ONLY A VERY SHALLOW LAYER BELOW
~1000 FT WOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO ISOLATED RAIN AND/OR SNOW
SHOWERS...OR SLEET...ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST MID/UPPER COLD
TROUGH WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT OUT. HOWEVER... THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE AFTERNOON AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A PASSING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. LOWS
TONIGHT 20-25. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES. LOWS 15-20 NORTH TO 20-25 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

THE COLD THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERN US
TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE RELOADING OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH GETS UNDERWAY COURTESY
OF A STRONG ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN
THE INITIAL EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A STRONG ~1040MB
ARCTIC HIGH...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES
VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH A CLIPPER LIKE WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING
WEAK SFC WAVE REFLECTION THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COULD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH NW FLOW EVENTS ALONG WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S...IMPACTS SHOULD
BE NEGLIGIBLE.

ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH ANTECEDENT POLAR
AIRMASS IN PLACE...COLD AIR DAMMING COULD PRESENT MIXED P-TYPE
CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF FOG HAVE LIFTED TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS. MIXING WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS
TO INCREASE TO TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE... THE WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL INCREASE TO 10-
15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS THIS AFTERNOON... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS
AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING... AND
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. NO VSBYS OR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. THEN VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 091156
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED THE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL NC IN RESPONSE TO THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. RADAR INDICATED PATCHY VERY LIGHT RETURNS (RAIN)
EXTENDING FROM ALBEMARLE TO CARTHAGE... MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. WITH THE COLD AIR
LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... SURFACE DEW POINTS... SURFACE
TEMPERATURES... AND CORRESPONDING WET BULB TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THIS LINE AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE
AREAS THAT ARE IN LINE TO GET SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING. THEREFORE... WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING OR FORECASTING ANY
TRAVEL ISSUES OR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS OF THE LIGHT RAIN. AREAS TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE TRIAD ARE COLDER... BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS THERE SHOULD BE ONLY A BRIEF FLURRY WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THE
COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
CAA THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERLY WINDS AT 10-20 MPH.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER SOUTHERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S... THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE COOLING
ALOFT TO PRODUCE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE CUMULUS
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WHERE IT BECOMES ENHANCED AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE.

AS FOR P-TYPE (AGAIN NO IMPACT)... TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING... THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEB BULB
PROFILES INDICATE THAT THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET SHOWERS. STILL... NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED. ANY OF THE
WIDELY SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS WOULD BE BRIEF WITH ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS... AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST MID/UPPER COLD
TROUGH WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT OUT. HOWEVER... THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE AFTERNOON AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A PASSING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. LOWS
TONIGHT 20-25. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES. LOWS 15-20 NORTH TO 20-25 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

THE COLD THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERN US
TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE RELOADING OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH GETS UNDERWAY COURTESY
OF A STRONG ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN
THE INITIAL EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A STRONG ~1040MB
ARCTIC HIGH...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES
VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH A CLIPPER LIKE WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING
WEAK SFC WAVE REFLECTION THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COULD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH NW FLOW EVENTS ALONG WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S...IMPACTS SHOULD
BE NEGLIGIBLE.

ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH ANTECEDENT POLAR
AIRMASS IN PLACE...COLD AIR DAMMING COULD PRESENT MIXED P-TYPE
CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF FOG HAVE LIFTED TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS. MIXING WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS
TO INCREASE TO TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE... THE WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL INCREASE TO 10-
15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS THIS AFTERNOON... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS
AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING... AND
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. NO VSBYS OR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. THEN VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 091156
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED THE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL NC IN RESPONSE TO THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. RADAR INDICATED PATCHY VERY LIGHT RETURNS (RAIN)
EXTENDING FROM ALBEMARLE TO CARTHAGE... MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. WITH THE COLD AIR
LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... SURFACE DEW POINTS... SURFACE
TEMPERATURES... AND CORRESPONDING WET BULB TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THIS LINE AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE
AREAS THAT ARE IN LINE TO GET SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING. THEREFORE... WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING OR FORECASTING ANY
TRAVEL ISSUES OR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS OF THE LIGHT RAIN. AREAS TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE TRIAD ARE COLDER... BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS THERE SHOULD BE ONLY A BRIEF FLURRY WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THE
COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
CAA THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERLY WINDS AT 10-20 MPH.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER SOUTHERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S... THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE COOLING
ALOFT TO PRODUCE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE CUMULUS
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WHERE IT BECOMES ENHANCED AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE.

AS FOR P-TYPE (AGAIN NO IMPACT)... TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING... THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEB BULB
PROFILES INDICATE THAT THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET SHOWERS. STILL... NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED. ANY OF THE
WIDELY SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS WOULD BE BRIEF WITH ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS... AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST MID/UPPER COLD
TROUGH WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT OUT. HOWEVER... THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE AFTERNOON AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A PASSING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. LOWS
TONIGHT 20-25. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES. LOWS 15-20 NORTH TO 20-25 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

THE COLD THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERN US
TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE RELOADING OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH GETS UNDERWAY COURTESY
OF A STRONG ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN
THE INITIAL EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A STRONG ~1040MB
ARCTIC HIGH...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES
VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH A CLIPPER LIKE WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING
WEAK SFC WAVE REFLECTION THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COULD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH NW FLOW EVENTS ALONG WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S...IMPACTS SHOULD
BE NEGLIGIBLE.

ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH ANTECEDENT POLAR
AIRMASS IN PLACE...COLD AIR DAMMING COULD PRESENT MIXED P-TYPE
CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF FOG HAVE LIFTED TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS. MIXING WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS
TO INCREASE TO TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE... THE WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL INCREASE TO 10-
15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS THIS AFTERNOON... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS
AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING... AND
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. NO VSBYS OR CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. THEN VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 090830
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED THE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL NC IN RESPONSE TO THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. RADAR INDICATED PATCHY VERY LIGHT RETURNS (RAIN)
EXTENDING FROM ALBEMARLE TO CARTHAGE... MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. WITH THE COLD AIR
LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... SURFACE DEW POINTS... SURFACE
TEMPERATURES... AND CORRESPONDING WET BULB TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THIS LINE AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE
AREAS THAT ARE IN LINE TO GET SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING. THEREFORE... WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING OR FORECASTING ANY
TRAVEL ISSUES OR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS OF THE LIGHT RAIN. AREAS TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE TRIAD ARE COLDER... BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS THERE SHOULD BE ONLY A BRIEF FLURRY WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THE
COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
CAA THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERLY WINDS AT 10-20 MPH.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER SOUTHERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S... THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE COOLING
ALOFT TO PRODUCE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE CUMULUS
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WHERE IT BECOMES ENHANCED AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE.

AS FOR P-TYPE (AGAIN NO IMPACT)... TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING... THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEB BULB
PROFILES INDICATE THAT THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET SHOWERS. STILL... NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED. ANY OF THE
WIDELY SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS WOULD BE BRIEF WITH ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS... AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST MID/UPPER COLD
TROUGH WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT OUT. HOWEVER... THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE AFTERNOON AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A PASSING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. LOWS
TONIGHT 20-25. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES. LOWS 15-20 NORTH TO 20-25 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

THE COLD THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERN US
TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE RELOADING OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH GETS UNDERWAY COURTESY
OF A STRONG ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN
THE INITIAL EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A STRONG ~1040MB
ARCTIC HIGH...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES
VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH A CLIPPER LIKE WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING
WEAK SFC WAVE REFLECTION THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COULD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH NW FLOW EVENTS ALONG WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S...IMPACTS SHOULD
BE NEGLIGIBLE.

ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH ANTECEDENT POLAR
AIRMASS IN PLACE...COLD AIR DAMMING COULD PRESENT MIXED P-TYPE
CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF FOG WITH LIFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND KRDU AND KRWI
THROUGH 09Z SHOULD GET SCOURED OUT BY THE INCREASING MIXED LAYER
ALOFT BEFORE 12Z. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 5-10KT BY 12Z.
OTHERWISE... THE WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL INCREASE TO 10-
15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS ON TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS
AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT/SMITH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 090830
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED THE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL NC IN RESPONSE TO THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. RADAR INDICATED PATCHY VERY LIGHT RETURNS (RAIN)
EXTENDING FROM ALBEMARLE TO CARTHAGE... MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. WITH THE COLD AIR
LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... SURFACE DEW POINTS... SURFACE
TEMPERATURES... AND CORRESPONDING WET BULB TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THIS LINE AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE
AREAS THAT ARE IN LINE TO GET SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING. THEREFORE... WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING OR FORECASTING ANY
TRAVEL ISSUES OR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS OF THE LIGHT RAIN. AREAS TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE TRIAD ARE COLDER... BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS THERE SHOULD BE ONLY A BRIEF FLURRY WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THE
COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
CAA THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERLY WINDS AT 10-20 MPH.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER SOUTHERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S... THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE COOLING
ALOFT TO PRODUCE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE CUMULUS
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WHERE IT BECOMES ENHANCED AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE.

AS FOR P-TYPE (AGAIN NO IMPACT)... TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING... THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEB BULB
PROFILES INDICATE THAT THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET SHOWERS. STILL... NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED. ANY OF THE
WIDELY SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS WOULD BE BRIEF WITH ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS... AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST MID/UPPER COLD
TROUGH WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT OUT. HOWEVER... THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE AFTERNOON AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A PASSING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. LOWS
TONIGHT 20-25. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES. LOWS 15-20 NORTH TO 20-25 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...

THE COLD THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS EASTERN US
TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER CHILLY DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 30S. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY
BEFORE RELOADING OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH GETS UNDERWAY COURTESY
OF A STRONG ARCTIC VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS SECONDARY INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN
THE INITIAL EARLY/MID WEEK INSTALLMENT. ANCHORED BY A STRONG ~1040MB
ARCTIC HIGH...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES
VALENTINES DAY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER WITH A CLIPPER LIKE WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING
WEAK SFC WAVE REFLECTION THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COULD ENOUGH ALOFT TO SUPPORT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
MIX. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH NW FLOW EVENTS ALONG WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S...IMPACTS SHOULD
BE NEGLIGIBLE.

ARCTIC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT.  WITH ANTECEDENT POLAR
AIRMASS IN PLACE...COLD AIR DAMMING COULD PRESENT MIXED P-TYPE
CONCERNS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF FOG WITH LIFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND KRDU AND KRWI
THROUGH 09Z SHOULD GET SCOURED OUT BY THE INCREASING MIXED LAYER
ALOFT BEFORE 12Z. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 5-10KT BY 12Z.
OTHERWISE... THE WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL INCREASE TO 10-
15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS ON TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS
AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BADGETT/SMITH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 090755
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING... OTHERWISE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL
AFFECT THE REGION THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED THE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL NC IN RESPONSE TO THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. RADAR INDICATED PATCHY VERY LIGHT RETURNS (RAIN)
EXTENDING FROM ALBEMARLE TO CARTHAGE... MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. WITH THE COLD AIR
LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... SURFACE DEW POINTS... SURFACE
TEMPERATURES... AND CORRESPONDING WET BULB TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THIS LINE AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE
AREAS THAT ARE IN LINE TO GET SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING. THEREFORE... WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING OR FORECASTING ANY
TRAVEL ISSUES OR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS OF THE LIGHT RAIN. AREAS TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE TRIAD ARE COLDER... BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS THERE SHOULD BE ONLY A BRIEF FLURRY WITH NO ACCUMULATION. THE
COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
CAA THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERLY WINDS AT 10-20 MPH.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER SOUTHERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S... THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE COOLING
ALOFT TO PRODUCE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE CUMULUS
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WHERE IT BECOMES ENHANCED AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE.

AS FOR P-TYPE (AGAIN NO IMPACT)... TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING... THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEB BULB
PROFILES INDICATE THAT THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A MIXTURE OF
RAIN/SNOW/SLEET SHOWERS. STILL... NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED. ANY OF THE
WIDELY SCATTERED OR ISOLATED SHOWERS WOULD BE BRIEF WITH ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS... AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST MID/UPPER COLD
TROUGH WILL MAXIMIZE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT OUT. HOWEVER... THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH YET ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE AFTERNOON AGAIN WEDNESDAY. A PASSING FLURRY IS POSSIBLE. LOWS
TONIGHT 20-25. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES. LOWS 15-20 NORTH TO 20-25 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM MONDAY...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF RELAXATION LATE
IN THE WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...AND EFFECTIVELY RE-AMPLIFY THE
FLOW...THIS WEEKEND. A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL THEN FLATTEN
THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SUN-MON.

WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES MID-LATE WEEK...WITH EACH SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE A MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY AND LITTLE LOW
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON THU...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-
MID LEVEL WAA REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR VORTEX
SUPPRESSES THE NORTHERN STREAM/PROMOTES CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT THE SOUTHEASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A 1040-1045 MB HIGH
FROM THE ARCTIC. WHILE THIS WOULD YIELD INITIALLY JUST NEAR RECORD
COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH AND AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WOULD
RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF STREAM INTERACTION...AND STORMINESS AND
APPALACHIAN COLD AIR DAMMING...MON-TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF FOG WITH LIFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND KRDU AND KRWI
THROUGH 09Z SHOULD GET SCOURED OUT BY THE INCREASING MIXED LAYER
ALOFT BEFORE 12Z. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 5-10KT BY 12Z.
OTHERWISE... THE WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL INCREASE TO 10-
15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS ON TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS
AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...BADGETT/SMITH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 090611
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
107 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TUE...IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AROUND AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM MONDAY...

A LEAD COLD FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS THAT PRODUCED PEAK WIND GUSTS
OF 34 KTS AT FAY; 35 KTS AT FBG; AND 37 KTS AT POB...HAS MOVED EAST
OF CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NC/VA AND MAINTAIN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE TONIGHT...THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST
OF CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...WV SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ANOTHER
COMPACT CIRCULATION DIGGING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY THIS
EVENING...AND THIS FEATURE AND THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z TUE.
FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE MID-UPPER FEATURE...ACROSS VA
AND NC...IN CONJUNCTION WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5
C/KM THROUGH A VERY DEEP LAYER (FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB) SAMPLED
BY THE 00Z GSO RAOB...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COMPACT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE WNW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC DURING THE AFTERNOON.  STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE STRONG DCVA AND MOISTENING BETWEEN 5-10K
FEET(COINCIDENT WITH THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE)...MAY LEAD SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER....ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY FROM ROXBORO TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF THE BORDER AND THE ECMWF IS
THE ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE ANY QPF IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST...BUT DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 20S WOULD PUSH WETBULB PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.  COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM MONDAY...

COLD MID-LATE WEEK...AND EVEN COLDER --PERHAPS RECORD SO-- THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION (LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT AND LATE MON-TUE).

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF RELAXATION LATE
IN THE WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...AND EFFECTIVELY RE-AMPLIFY THE
FLOW...THIS WEEKEND. A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL THEN FLATTEN
THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SUN-MON.

WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES MID-LATE WEEK...WITH EACH SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE A MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY AND LITTLE LOW
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON THU...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-
MID LEVEL WAA REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR VORTEX
SUPPRESSES THE NORTHERN STREAM/PROMOTES CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT THE SOUTHEASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A 1040-1045 MB HIGH
FROM THE ARCTIC. WHILE THIS WOULD YIELD INITIALLY JUST NEAR RECORD
COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH AND AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WOULD
RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF STREAM INTERACTION...AND STORMINESS AND
APPALACHIAN COLD AIR DAMMING...MON-TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF FOG WITH LIFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND KRDU AND KRWI
THROUGH 09Z SHOULD GET SCOURED OUT BY THE INCREASING MIXED LAYER
ALOFT BEFORE 12Z. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 5-10KT BY 12Z.
OTHERWISE... THE WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL INCREASE TO 10-
15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS ON TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS
AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...2
NEAR TERM...2
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...BADGETT/SMITH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 090611
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
107 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TUE...IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AROUND AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM MONDAY...

A LEAD COLD FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS THAT PRODUCED PEAK WIND GUSTS
OF 34 KTS AT FAY; 35 KTS AT FBG; AND 37 KTS AT POB...HAS MOVED EAST
OF CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NC/VA AND MAINTAIN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE TONIGHT...THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST
OF CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...WV SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ANOTHER
COMPACT CIRCULATION DIGGING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY THIS
EVENING...AND THIS FEATURE AND THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z TUE.
FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE MID-UPPER FEATURE...ACROSS VA
AND NC...IN CONJUNCTION WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5
C/KM THROUGH A VERY DEEP LAYER (FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB) SAMPLED
BY THE 00Z GSO RAOB...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COMPACT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE WNW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC DURING THE AFTERNOON.  STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE STRONG DCVA AND MOISTENING BETWEEN 5-10K
FEET(COINCIDENT WITH THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE)...MAY LEAD SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER....ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY FROM ROXBORO TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF THE BORDER AND THE ECMWF IS
THE ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE ANY QPF IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST...BUT DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 20S WOULD PUSH WETBULB PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.  COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM MONDAY...

COLD MID-LATE WEEK...AND EVEN COLDER --PERHAPS RECORD SO-- THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION (LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT AND LATE MON-TUE).

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF RELAXATION LATE
IN THE WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...AND EFFECTIVELY RE-AMPLIFY THE
FLOW...THIS WEEKEND. A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL THEN FLATTEN
THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SUN-MON.

WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES MID-LATE WEEK...WITH EACH SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE A MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY AND LITTLE LOW
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON THU...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-
MID LEVEL WAA REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR VORTEX
SUPPRESSES THE NORTHERN STREAM/PROMOTES CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT THE SOUTHEASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A 1040-1045 MB HIGH
FROM THE ARCTIC. WHILE THIS WOULD YIELD INITIALLY JUST NEAR RECORD
COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH AND AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WOULD
RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF STREAM INTERACTION...AND STORMINESS AND
APPALACHIAN COLD AIR DAMMING...MON-TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF FOG WITH LIFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS AROUND KRDU AND KRWI
THROUGH 09Z SHOULD GET SCOURED OUT BY THE INCREASING MIXED LAYER
ALOFT BEFORE 12Z. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 5-10KT BY 12Z.
OTHERWISE... THE WESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WILL INCREASE TO 10-
15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25KTS ON TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS
AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...2
NEAR TERM...2
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...BADGETT/SMITH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 090325
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1025 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TUE...IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AROUND AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM MONDAY...

A LEAD COLD FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS THAT PRODUCED PEAK WIND GUSTS
OF 34 KTS AT FAY; 35 KTS AT FBG; AND 37 KTS AT POB...HAS MOVED EAST
OF CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NC/VA AND MAINTAIN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE TONIGHT...THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST
OF CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...WV SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ANOTHER
COMPACT CIRCULATION DIGGING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY THIS
EVENING...AND THIS FEATURE AND THE ACCOMPANYIGN SURFACE COLD FRONT
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z TUE.
FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE MID-UPPER FEATURE...ACROSS VA
AND NC...IN CONJUNCTION WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5
C/KM THROUGH A VERY DEEP LAYER (FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB) SAMPLED
BY THE 00Z GSO RAOB...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COMPACT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE WNW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC DURING THE AFTERNOON.  STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE STRONG DCVA AND MOISTENING BETWEEN 5-10K
FEET(COINCIDENT WITH THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE)...MAY LEAD SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER....ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY FROM ROXBORO TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF THE BORDER AND THE ECMWF IS
THE ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE ANY QPF IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST...BUT DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 20S WOULD PUSH WETBULB PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.  COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM MONDAY...

COLD MID-LATE WEEK...AND EVEN COLDER --PERHAPS RECORD SO-- THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION (LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT AND LATE MON-TUE).

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF RELAXATION LATE
IN THE WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...AND EFFECTIVELY RE-AMPLIFY THE
FLOW...THIS WEEKEND. A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL THEN FLATTEN
THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SUN-MON.

WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES MID-LATE WEEK...WITH EACH SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE A MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY AND LITTLE LOW
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON THU...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-
MID LEVEL WAA REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR VORTEX
SUPPRESSES THE NORTHERN STREAM/PROMOTES CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT THE SOUTHEASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A 1040-1045 MB HIGH
FROM THE ARCTIC. WHILE THIS WOULD YIELD INITIALLY JUST NEAR RECORD
COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH AND AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WOULD
RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF STREAM INTERACTION...AND STORMINESS AND
APPALACHIAN COLD AIR DAMMING...MON-TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS HAS JUST MOVED TO THE EAST OF KFAY
AND KRDU THIS EVENING... WITH ONLY KRWI STILL EXPERIENCING THE PRECIP
AND THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS (GENERALLY WIND
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE POSSIBLY... WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE). THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... ENDING ANY LINGERING THREAT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12KT AND GUSTS TO AROUND 18 TO 23
KTS ON TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG
WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...2
NEAR TERM...2
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...7/SMITH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 090325
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1025 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TUE...IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AROUND AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM MONDAY...

A LEAD COLD FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS THAT PRODUCED PEAK WIND GUSTS
OF 34 KTS AT FAY; 35 KTS AT FBG; AND 37 KTS AT POB...HAS MOVED EAST
OF CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NC/VA AND MAINTAIN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE TONIGHT...THOSE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST
OF CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...WV SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ANOTHER
COMPACT CIRCULATION DIGGING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY THIS
EVENING...AND THIS FEATURE AND THE ACCOMPANYIGN SURFACE COLD FRONT
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z TUE.
FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE MID-UPPER FEATURE...ACROSS VA
AND NC...IN CONJUNCTION WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5
C/KM THROUGH A VERY DEEP LAYER (FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB) SAMPLED
BY THE 00Z GSO RAOB...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COMPACT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE WNW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC DURING THE AFTERNOON.  STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE STRONG DCVA AND MOISTENING BETWEEN 5-10K
FEET(COINCIDENT WITH THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE)...MAY LEAD SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER....ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY FROM ROXBORO TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF THE BORDER AND THE ECMWF IS
THE ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE ANY QPF IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST...BUT DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 20S WOULD PUSH WETBULB PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.  COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM MONDAY...

COLD MID-LATE WEEK...AND EVEN COLDER --PERHAPS RECORD SO-- THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION (LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT AND LATE MON-TUE).

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF RELAXATION LATE
IN THE WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...AND EFFECTIVELY RE-AMPLIFY THE
FLOW...THIS WEEKEND. A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL THEN FLATTEN
THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SUN-MON.

WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES MID-LATE WEEK...WITH EACH SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE A MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY AND LITTLE LOW
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON THU...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-
MID LEVEL WAA REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR VORTEX
SUPPRESSES THE NORTHERN STREAM/PROMOTES CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT THE SOUTHEASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A 1040-1045 MB HIGH
FROM THE ARCTIC. WHILE THIS WOULD YIELD INITIALLY JUST NEAR RECORD
COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH AND AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WOULD
RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF STREAM INTERACTION...AND STORMINESS AND
APPALACHIAN COLD AIR DAMMING...MON-TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS HAS JUST MOVED TO THE EAST OF KFAY
AND KRDU THIS EVENING... WITH ONLY KRWI STILL EXPERIENCING THE PRECIP
AND THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS (GENERALLY WIND
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE POSSIBLY... WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE). THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... ENDING ANY LINGERING THREAT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12KT AND GUSTS TO AROUND 18 TO 23
KTS ON TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG
WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...2
NEAR TERM...2
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...7/SMITH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 090044
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
744 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD 100-150M
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE BIGGEST FORECAST INTEREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE BAND
OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE LEAD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. THE BAND
STRETCHING FROM THE TRIAD THROUGH CHARLOTTE IS FORECAST BY CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS TO PROGRESS  EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21Z AND
03Z. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CAPE...IF ANY AT ALL. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF
STEEP 7-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRAMATIC
COOLING UNDERWAY ALOFT HAS ADVECTED OVER CENTRAL NC...PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THIS COUPLED WITH THE (RELATIVE) WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BAND OF SHOWERS
STRENGTHENING A BIT WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH WITH THE SHOWERS
SEEMS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO PLAUSIBLE
WITHIN THE LINE GIVEN THE THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
WITHOUT BETTER FORECASTS CAPE...PREFER TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEFORE ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST VA BY
MIDNIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LATE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME OMEGA AND MOISTURE
IN THE -12C TO -18C LAYER FROM DANVILLE TO EMPORIA...SO IT SEEMS
LESS LIKELY THAT WE`LL SEE ANY PRECIP THAT CHANGES OVER TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  LOWS 28-33.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC DURING THE AFTERNOON.  STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE STRONG DCVA AND MOISTENING BETWEEN 5-10K
FEET(COINCIDENT WITH THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE)...MAY LEAD SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER....ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY FROM ROXBORO TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF THE BORDER AND THE ECMWF IS
THE ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE ANY QPF IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST...BUT DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 20S WOULD PUSH WETBULB PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.  COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM MONDAY...

COLD MID-LATE WEEK...AND EVEN COLDER --PERHAPS RECORD SO-- THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION (LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT AND LATE MON-TUE).

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF RELAXATION LATE
IN THE WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...AND EFFECTIVELY RE-AMPLIFY THE
FLOW...THIS WEEKEND. A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL THEN FLATTEN
THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SUN-MON.

WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES MID-LATE WEEK...WITH EACH SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE A MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY AND LITTLE LOW
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON THU...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-
MID LEVEL WAA REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR VORTEX
SUPPRESSES THE NORTHERN STREAM/PROMOTES CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT THE SOUTHEASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A 1040-1045 MB HIGH
FROM THE ARCTIC. WHILE THIS WOULD YIELD INITIALLY JUST NEAR RECORD
COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH AND AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WOULD
RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF STREAM INTERACTION...AND STORMINESS AND
APPALACHIAN COLD AIR DAMMING...MON-TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS HAS JUST MOVED TO THE EAST OF KFAY
AND KRDU THIS EVENING... WITH ONLY KRWI STILL EXPERIENCING THE PRECIP
AND THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS (GENERALLY WIND
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE POSSIBLY... WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE). THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... ENDING ANY LINGERING THREAT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12KT AND GUSTS TO AROUND 18 TO 23
KTS ON TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG
WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...7/SMITH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 090044
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
744 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD 100-150M
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE BIGGEST FORECAST INTEREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE BAND
OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE LEAD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. THE BAND
STRETCHING FROM THE TRIAD THROUGH CHARLOTTE IS FORECAST BY CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS TO PROGRESS  EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21Z AND
03Z. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CAPE...IF ANY AT ALL. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF
STEEP 7-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRAMATIC
COOLING UNDERWAY ALOFT HAS ADVECTED OVER CENTRAL NC...PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THIS COUPLED WITH THE (RELATIVE) WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BAND OF SHOWERS
STRENGTHENING A BIT WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH WITH THE SHOWERS
SEEMS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO PLAUSIBLE
WITHIN THE LINE GIVEN THE THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
WITHOUT BETTER FORECASTS CAPE...PREFER TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEFORE ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST VA BY
MIDNIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LATE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME OMEGA AND MOISTURE
IN THE -12C TO -18C LAYER FROM DANVILLE TO EMPORIA...SO IT SEEMS
LESS LIKELY THAT WE`LL SEE ANY PRECIP THAT CHANGES OVER TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  LOWS 28-33.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC DURING THE AFTERNOON.  STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE STRONG DCVA AND MOISTENING BETWEEN 5-10K
FEET(COINCIDENT WITH THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE)...MAY LEAD SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER....ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY FROM ROXBORO TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF THE BORDER AND THE ECMWF IS
THE ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE ANY QPF IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST...BUT DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 20S WOULD PUSH WETBULB PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.  COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM MONDAY...

COLD MID-LATE WEEK...AND EVEN COLDER --PERHAPS RECORD SO-- THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION (LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT AND LATE MON-TUE).

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF RELAXATION LATE
IN THE WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...AND EFFECTIVELY RE-AMPLIFY THE
FLOW...THIS WEEKEND. A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL THEN FLATTEN
THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SUN-MON.

WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES MID-LATE WEEK...WITH EACH SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE A MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY AND LITTLE LOW
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON THU...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-
MID LEVEL WAA REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR VORTEX
SUPPRESSES THE NORTHERN STREAM/PROMOTES CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT THE SOUTHEASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A 1040-1045 MB HIGH
FROM THE ARCTIC. WHILE THIS WOULD YIELD INITIALLY JUST NEAR RECORD
COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH AND AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WOULD
RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF STREAM INTERACTION...AND STORMINESS AND
APPALACHIAN COLD AIR DAMMING...MON-TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS HAS JUST MOVED TO THE EAST OF KFAY
AND KRDU THIS EVENING... WITH ONLY KRWI STILL EXPERIENCING THE PRECIP
AND THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS (GENERALLY WIND
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE POSSIBLY... WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE). THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... ENDING ANY LINGERING THREAT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12KT AND GUSTS TO AROUND 18 TO 23
KTS ON TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG
WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...7/SMITH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 090044
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
744 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND EXTENDED
PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SPREAD 100-150M
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE BIGGEST FORECAST INTEREST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE BAND
OF SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE LEAD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. THE BAND
STRETCHING FROM THE TRIAD THROUGH CHARLOTTE IS FORECAST BY CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS TO PROGRESS  EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21Z AND
03Z. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CAPE...IF ANY AT ALL. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF
STEEP 7-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRAMATIC
COOLING UNDERWAY ALOFT HAS ADVECTED OVER CENTRAL NC...PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THIS COUPLED WITH THE (RELATIVE) WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY JUST IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE HRRR SHOWS THE BAND OF SHOWERS
STRENGTHENING A BIT WITH TIME AND EASTWARD EXTENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WIND GUSTS OF 30-40MPH WITH THE SHOWERS
SEEMS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE.  A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO PLAUSIBLE
WITHIN THE LINE GIVEN THE THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT
WITHOUT BETTER FORECASTS CAPE...PREFER TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS BEFORE ADDING THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST VA BY
MIDNIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH PRECIP WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LATE
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME OMEGA AND MOISTURE
IN THE -12C TO -18C LAYER FROM DANVILLE TO EMPORIA...SO IT SEEMS
LESS LIKELY THAT WE`LL SEE ANY PRECIP THAT CHANGES OVER TO SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  LOWS 28-33.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY...WITH A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE TROUGH FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS VA AND NORTHERN NC DURING THE AFTERNOON.  STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE STRONG DCVA AND MOISTENING BETWEEN 5-10K
FEET(COINCIDENT WITH THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE)...MAY LEAD SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER....ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY FROM ROXBORO TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MUCH BETTER COVERAGE NORTH OF THE BORDER AND THE ECMWF IS
THE ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE ANY QPF IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST...BUT DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 20S WOULD PUSH WETBULB PROFILES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.  COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM MONDAY...

COLD MID-LATE WEEK...AND EVEN COLDER --PERHAPS RECORD SO-- THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION (LATE FRI-
FRI NIGHT AND LATE MON-TUE).

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG WESTERN NOAM
RIDGE AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGH WILL UNDERGO A BRIEF RELAXATION LATE
IN THE WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A POLAR VORTEX THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND...AND EFFECTIVELY RE-AMPLIFY THE
FLOW...THIS WEEKEND. A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL THEN FLATTEN
THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SUN-MON.

WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES MID-LATE WEEK...WITH EACH SUPPORTING AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION STREAKING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE A MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY AND LITTLE LOW
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS ON THU...WHILE THE SECOND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW-
MID LEVEL WAA REGIME AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SUPPORTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOST LIKELY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...CENTERED AROUND FRI EVENING.

A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL ACCOMPANY THE
AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR VORTEX
SUPPRESSES THE NORTHERN STREAM/PROMOTES CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT THE SOUTHEASTWARD MAINTENANCE OF A 1040-1045 MB HIGH
FROM THE ARCTIC. WHILE THIS WOULD YIELD INITIALLY JUST NEAR RECORD
COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH AND AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WOULD
RAISE THE PROBABILITY OF STREAM INTERACTION...AND STORMINESS AND
APPALACHIAN COLD AIR DAMMING...MON-TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT. THE BAND OF SHOWERS HAS JUST MOVED TO THE EAST OF KFAY
AND KRDU THIS EVENING... WITH ONLY KRWI STILL EXPERIENCING THE PRECIP
AND THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS (GENERALLY WIND
GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE POSSIBLY... WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE). THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING... ENDING ANY LINGERING THREAT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 9-12KT AND GUSTS TO AROUND 18 TO 23
KTS ON TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME CIGS AT AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT ALONG
WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COME FRIDAY AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...2
AVIATION...7/SMITH





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