Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS62 KRAH 210724
AFDRAH

FXUS62 KRAH DDHHMM
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
323 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

DRY/SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINA COAST. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS TODAY...WITH FROPA OCCURRING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING IN
CENTRAL NC AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT THIS LATITUDE...
WITH CONVECTION MORE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH IN
VA AND THE DELMARVA IN CLOSER VICINITY TO THE MORE VIGOROUS DPVA
ASSOC/W THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR N/NW PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT (22-05Z) WHEN ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL NO LOWER THAN THE MID 60S (64-67F)
GIVEN FROPA WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING...TEMPORARILY
STALLING OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY 00Z TUE. THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY MON (ESP NW PIEDMONT)...THE
STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT OCCUR IN EARNEST UNTIL MON EVENING
(00-06Z TUE) WHEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY STALL
EAST OF CENTRAL NC PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER CAA...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S NW TO LOWER 80S E/SE...WITH RELATIVELY CHILLY LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S N/NW TO LOWER/MID 50S SE TUE MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM SUNDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TUE AND WED
WILL EXTEND DEEP INTO THE SE STATES. THE EVOLUTION OF A SMALL SCALE
MID/UPPER LOW (AND CORRESPONDING COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH) SHOULD
DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF COOLNESS AND POTENTIALLY WETNESS BEYOND WED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LOW IN THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK AS
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. A GIVEN WILL BE
THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
INCREASING OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR REGION WITH TIME WED-THU...
INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

JUST HOW MUCH DEEP MOISTURE CAN BE PULLED INTO THE REGION FOR THE
PRODUCTION OF RAIN SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY THE CURRENT LOW
PREDICTABILITY OF A POTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LATER
IN THE WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
AND THE EC WITH THE EC ENSEMBLES REMAINING THE FARTHEST NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE INFLUX... COURTESY OF A WEAKNESS
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

BOTTOM LINE... EXPECT COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TUE-WED... THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOL THU-FRI. DAILY TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WED-THU... AND EVEN COOLER IF THE EC
VERIFIES WITH RAINY CONDITIONS THEN. THE WEEKEND CURRENTLY IS A TOSS
UP - WITH THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE
WEEK. WE WILL KEEP THE SATURDAY FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LESS
THAN 20 POP UNTIL SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IS ACHIEVED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: WITH ONE EXCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
IFR CEILINGS AT THE RWI TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A
RAPID RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 09-10Z AS THE COASTAL LOW GAINS
LATITUDE AND A DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVECTS TOWARD THE COAST FROM
THE NW. NNW/NW WINDS AT 5 KT WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15 KT DURING
THE DAY...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF A
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 210724
AFDRAH

FXUS62 KRAH DDHHMM
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
323 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

DRY/SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINA COAST. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS TODAY...WITH FROPA OCCURRING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING IN
CENTRAL NC AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT THIS LATITUDE...
WITH CONVECTION MORE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH IN
VA AND THE DELMARVA IN CLOSER VICINITY TO THE MORE VIGOROUS DPVA
ASSOC/W THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR N/NW PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT (22-05Z) WHEN ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL NO LOWER THAN THE MID 60S (64-67F)
GIVEN FROPA WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING...TEMPORARILY
STALLING OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY 00Z TUE. THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY MON (ESP NW PIEDMONT)...THE
STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT OCCUR IN EARNEST UNTIL MON EVENING
(00-06Z TUE) WHEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY STALL
EAST OF CENTRAL NC PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER CAA...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S NW TO LOWER 80S E/SE...WITH RELATIVELY CHILLY LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S N/NW TO LOWER/MID 50S SE TUE MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 323 AM SUNDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TUE AND WED
WILL EXTEND DEEP INTO THE SE STATES. THE EVOLUTION OF A SMALL SCALE
MID/UPPER LOW (AND CORRESPONDING COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH) SHOULD
DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF COOLNESS AND POTENTIALLY WETNESS BEYOND WED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES LOW IN THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK AS
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. A GIVEN WILL BE
THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
INCREASING OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO OUR REGION WITH TIME WED-THU...
INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

JUST HOW MUCH DEEP MOISTURE CAN BE PULLED INTO THE REGION FOR THE
PRODUCTION OF RAIN SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY THE CURRENT LOW
PREDICTABILITY OF A POTENTIAL WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LATER
IN THE WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST SUPPRESSED SOLUTION
AND THE EC WITH THE EC ENSEMBLES REMAINING THE FARTHEST NORTH AND
NORTHWEST WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE INFLUX... COURTESY OF A WEAKNESS
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

BOTTOM LINE... EXPECT COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TUE-WED... THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND COOL THU-FRI. DAILY TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY WED-THU... AND EVEN COOLER IF THE EC
VERIFIES WITH RAINY CONDITIONS THEN. THE WEEKEND CURRENTLY IS A TOSS
UP - WITH THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE
WEEK. WE WILL KEEP THE SATURDAY FORECAST MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LESS
THAN 20 POP UNTIL SOME MODEL AGREEMENT IS ACHIEVED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: WITH ONE EXCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
IFR CEILINGS AT THE RWI TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A
RAPID RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 09-10Z AS THE COASTAL LOW GAINS
LATITUDE AND A DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVECTS TOWARD THE COAST FROM
THE NW. NNW/NW WINDS AT 5 KT WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15 KT DURING
THE DAY...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF A
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 210702
AFDRAH

FXUS62 KRAH DDHHMM
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
301 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINA COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

DRY/SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINA COAST. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS TODAY...WITH FROPA OCCURRING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING IN
CENTRAL NC AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT THIS LATITUDE...
WITH CONVECTION MORE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH IN
VA AND THE DELMARVA IN CLOSER VICINITY TO THE MORE VIGOROUS DPVA
ASSOC/W THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR N/NW PIEDMONT LATE THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT (22-05Z) WHEN ISOLD SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL NO LOWER THAN THE MID 60S (64-67F)
GIVEN FROPA WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING...TEMPORARILY
STALLING OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING ESE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY 00Z TUE. THOUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY MON (ESP NW PIEDMONT)...THE
STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT OCCUR IN EARNEST UNTIL MON EVENING
(00-06Z TUE) WHEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY STALL
EAST OF CENTRAL NC PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE STRONGER CAA...EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S NW TO LOWER 80S E/SE...WITH RELATIVELY CHILLY LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 40S N/NW TO LOWER/MID 50S SE TUE MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US...WILL RIDGE
DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S (WITH MAYBE SOME
UPPER 40S IN THE NORMAL COOLER LOCALES).

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/END OF THE
WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT (AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO
RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A
WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES
AMONG THE MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NC). FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST UNTIL MODELS CONVERGE TO A SOLUTION...BUT WILL INDICATE
INCREASED CLOUDINESS. ALTHOUGH...WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW END SLIGHT
CHANCES POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: WITH ONE EXCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
IFR CEILINGS AT THE RWI TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A
RAPID RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 09-10Z AS THE COASTAL LOW GAINS
LATITUDE AND A DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVECTS TOWARD THE COAST FROM
THE NW. NNW/NW WINDS AT 5 KT WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15 KT DURING
THE DAY...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF A
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 210210
AFDRAH

FXUS62 KRAH DDHHMM
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1010 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST UP THE THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT...AND THEN UP THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM SATURDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE OVER GEORGIA (WHICH HAS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
PRESENTATION ON WATER VAPOR) AND ASSOCIATED SUB-1010MB SURFACE LOW
EAST OF SAVANNAH THIS EVENING WILL RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST STATES.  THE RAIN SHIELD ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE HAS
BEEN ONLY INCHING ITS WAY WESTWARD THIS EVENING...BARELY REACHING
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SAMPSON COUNTY SO FAR. THE DRY AIR RIDGE
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND MOSTLY NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD KEEP ANY (VERY LIGHT)
MEASURABLE PRECIP STAYING EAST OF I-95...WHICH RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE
MOSTLY SUGGESTED.  HIGH CLOUDS OF VARYING OPACITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA AS THE WAVE LIFTS
NORTH...KEEPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
EVENING...AROUND 60 IN THE WEST TO MID/UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.




LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST UP THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. CENTRAL NC WILL
LARGELY REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/UPPER
LOW WITH BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG ATLANTIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
DPVA. SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INLAND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT TO SMALL
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SE/EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S WEST TO MIDS 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE LOOKOUT SUNDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY ACCELERATE UP THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY AS IT GETS
ABSORBED BY THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND
ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL ALSO SERVE TO PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS COME IN JUST SLIGHTLY
WETTER...POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE OUT ANY POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP IN ASSOC/W THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE ADDED SOME
SPRINKLES  EVERYWHERE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S GIVEN FROPA CLOSE TO SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
EAST COAST...A COLD FRONT WILL BE PROPELLED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON A FAIRLY POTENT VORT MAX ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH...BUT GIVEN THAT THE FRONT SHOULD
BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA (I.E. TIP OF SAMPSON COUNTY). HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO MOSTLY THE LOW TO MID 50S.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US...WILL RIDGE
DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S (WITH MAYBE SOME
UPPER 40S IN THE NORMAL COOLER LOCALES).

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/END OF THE
WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT (AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO
RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A
WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES
AMONG THE MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NC). FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST UNTIL MODELS CONVERGE TO A SOLUTION...BUT WILL INDICATE
INCREASED CLOUDINESS. ALTHOUGH...WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW END SLIGHT
CHANCES POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF.



&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 805 PM SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFFSHORE THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT.
A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KFAY AND ESPECIALLY KRWI IN THE 03Z-08Z TIME FRAME...WHEN THE
OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOIST CIRCULATION PASS NEAREST THE NC
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE LINGER OVER THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES AND RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT
KINT/KGSO/KRDU. INITIALLY LIGHT NE SFC WINDS WILL BACK TO NW
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY - INCLUDING A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
AND GUSTINESS INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS AT KRWI/KFAY - THEN TO SW...
WITH A PERIOD STRONGER WINDS AND GUSTINESS INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS
AT KINT/KGSO IN THE FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNSET.

LOOKING AHEAD: A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...A PERIOD OF 6-8
THOUSAND FT CEILINGS...AND EVEN A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER...MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND PROVIDE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AND RAIN WED-THU...WITH RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE
AND POOREST CONDITIONS AT EASTERN TERMINALS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 210210
AFDRAH

FXUS62 KRAH DDHHMM
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1010 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST UP THE THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT...AND THEN UP THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM SATURDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE OVER GEORGIA (WHICH HAS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
PRESENTATION ON WATER VAPOR) AND ASSOCIATED SUB-1010MB SURFACE LOW
EAST OF SAVANNAH THIS EVENING WILL RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST STATES.  THE RAIN SHIELD ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE HAS
BEEN ONLY INCHING ITS WAY WESTWARD THIS EVENING...BARELY REACHING
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SAMPSON COUNTY SO FAR. THE DRY AIR RIDGE
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND MOSTLY NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD KEEP ANY (VERY LIGHT)
MEASURABLE PRECIP STAYING EAST OF I-95...WHICH RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE
MOSTLY SUGGESTED.  HIGH CLOUDS OF VARYING OPACITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA AS THE WAVE LIFTS
NORTH...KEEPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
EVENING...AROUND 60 IN THE WEST TO MID/UPPER 60S IN THE EAST.




LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST UP THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. CENTRAL NC WILL
LARGELY REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/UPPER
LOW WITH BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG ATLANTIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
DPVA. SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INLAND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT TO SMALL
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SE/EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S WEST TO MIDS 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE LOOKOUT SUNDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY ACCELERATE UP THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY AS IT GETS
ABSORBED BY THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND
ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL ALSO SERVE TO PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS COME IN JUST SLIGHTLY
WETTER...POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE OUT ANY POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP IN ASSOC/W THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE ADDED SOME
SPRINKLES  EVERYWHERE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S GIVEN FROPA CLOSE TO SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
EAST COAST...A COLD FRONT WILL BE PROPELLED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON A FAIRLY POTENT VORT MAX ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH...BUT GIVEN THAT THE FRONT SHOULD
BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA (I.E. TIP OF SAMPSON COUNTY). HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO MOSTLY THE LOW TO MID 50S.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US...WILL RIDGE
DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S (WITH MAYBE SOME
UPPER 40S IN THE NORMAL COOLER LOCALES).

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/END OF THE
WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT (AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO
RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A
WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES
AMONG THE MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NC). FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST UNTIL MODELS CONVERGE TO A SOLUTION...BUT WILL INDICATE
INCREASED CLOUDINESS. ALTHOUGH...WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW END SLIGHT
CHANCES POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF.



&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 805 PM SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFFSHORE THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT.
A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KFAY AND ESPECIALLY KRWI IN THE 03Z-08Z TIME FRAME...WHEN THE
OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOIST CIRCULATION PASS NEAREST THE NC
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE LINGER OVER THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES AND RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT
KINT/KGSO/KRDU. INITIALLY LIGHT NE SFC WINDS WILL BACK TO NW
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY - INCLUDING A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
AND GUSTINESS INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS AT KRWI/KFAY - THEN TO SW...
WITH A PERIOD STRONGER WINDS AND GUSTINESS INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS
AT KINT/KGSO IN THE FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNSET.

LOOKING AHEAD: A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...A PERIOD OF 6-8
THOUSAND FT CEILINGS...AND EVEN A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER...MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND PROVIDE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AND RAIN WED-THU...WITH RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE
AND POOREST CONDITIONS AT EASTERN TERMINALS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 210006
AFDRAH

FXUS62 KRAH DDHHMM
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
806 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST UP THE THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT...AND THEN UP THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST UP THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. CENTRAL NC WILL
LARGELY REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/UPPER
LOW WITH BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG ATLANTIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
DPVA. SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INLAND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT TO SMALL
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SE/EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S WEST TO MIDS 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE LOOKOUT SUNDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY ACCELERATE UP THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY AS IT GETS
ABSORBED BY THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND
ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL ALSO SERVE TO PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS COME IN JUST SLIGHTLY
WETTER...POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE OUT ANY POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP IN ASSOC/W THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE ADDED SOME
SPRINKLES  EVERYWHERE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S GIVEN FROPA CLOSE TO SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
EAST COAST...A COLD FRONT WILL BE PROPELLED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON A FAIRLY POTENT VORT MAX ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH...BUT GIVEN THAT THE FRONT SHOULD
BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA (I.E. TIP OF SAMPSON COUNTY). HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO MOSTLY THE LOW TO MID 50S.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US...WILL RIDGE
DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S (WITH MAYBE SOME
UPPER 40S IN THE NORMAL COOLER LOCALES).

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/END OF THE
WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT (AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO
RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A
WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES
AMONG THE MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NC). FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST UNTIL MODELS CONVERGE TO A SOLUTION...BUT WILL INDICATE
INCREASED CLOUDINESS. ALTHOUGH...WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW END SLIGHT
CHANCES POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF.



&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 805 PM SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFFSHORE THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT.
A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KFAY AND ESPECIALLY KRWI IN THE 03Z-08Z TIME FRAME...WHEN THE
OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOIST CIRCULATION PASS NEAREST THE NC
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE LINGER OVER THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES AND RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT
KINT/KGSO/KRDU. INITIALLY LIGHT NE SFC WINDS WILL BACK TO NW
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY - INCLUDING A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
AND GUSTINESS INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS AT KRWI/KFAY - THEN TO SW...
WITH A PERIOD STRONGER WINDS AND GUSTINESS INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS
AT KINT/KGSO IN THE FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNSET.

LOOKING AHEAD: A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...A PERIOD OF 6-8
THOUSAND FT CEILINGS...AND EVEN A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER...MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND PROVIDE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AND RAIN WED-THU...WITH RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE
AND POOREST CONDITIONS AT EASTERN TERMINALS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 210006
AFDRAH

FXUS62 KRAH DDHHMM
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
806 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST UP THE THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT...AND THEN UP THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST UP THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. CENTRAL NC WILL
LARGELY REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/UPPER
LOW WITH BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG ATLANTIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
DPVA. SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INLAND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT TO SMALL
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SE/EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S WEST TO MIDS 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE LOOKOUT SUNDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY ACCELERATE UP THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY AS IT GETS
ABSORBED BY THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND
ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL ALSO SERVE TO PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS COME IN JUST SLIGHTLY
WETTER...POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE OUT ANY POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP IN ASSOC/W THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE ADDED SOME
SPRINKLES  EVERYWHERE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S GIVEN FROPA CLOSE TO SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
EAST COAST...A COLD FRONT WILL BE PROPELLED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON A FAIRLY POTENT VORT MAX ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH...BUT GIVEN THAT THE FRONT SHOULD
BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA (I.E. TIP OF SAMPSON COUNTY). HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO MOSTLY THE LOW TO MID 50S.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US...WILL RIDGE
DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S (WITH MAYBE SOME
UPPER 40S IN THE NORMAL COOLER LOCALES).

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/END OF THE
WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT (AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO
RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A
WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES
AMONG THE MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NC). FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST UNTIL MODELS CONVERGE TO A SOLUTION...BUT WILL INDICATE
INCREASED CLOUDINESS. ALTHOUGH...WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW END SLIGHT
CHANCES POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF.



&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 805 PM SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFFSHORE THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT.
A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KFAY AND ESPECIALLY KRWI IN THE 03Z-08Z TIME FRAME...WHEN THE
OFFSHORE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOIST CIRCULATION PASS NEAREST THE NC
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE LINGER OVER THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES AND RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS AT
KINT/KGSO/KRDU. INITIALLY LIGHT NE SFC WINDS WILL BACK TO NW
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY - INCLUDING A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
AND GUSTINESS INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS AT KRWI/KFAY - THEN TO SW...
WITH A PERIOD STRONGER WINDS AND GUSTINESS INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS
AT KINT/KGSO IN THE FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNSET.

LOOKING AHEAD: A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...A PERIOD OF 6-8
THOUSAND FT CEILINGS...AND EVEN A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER...MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND PROVIDE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AND RAIN WED-THU...WITH RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE
AND POOREST CONDITIONS AT EASTERN TERMINALS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 201852
AFDRAH

FXUS62 KRAH DDHHMM
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST UP THE THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT...AND THEN UP THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST UP THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. CENTRAL NC WILL
LARGELY REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/UPPER
LOW WITH BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG ATLANTIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
DPVA. SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INLAND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT TO SMALL
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SE/EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S WEST TO MIDS 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE LOOKOUT SUNDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY ACCELERATE UP THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY AS IT GETS
ABSORBED BY THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND
ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL ALSO SERVE TO PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS COME IN JUST SLIGHTLY
WETTER...POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE OUT ANY POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP IN ASSOC/W THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE ADDED SOME
SPRINKLES  EVERYWHERE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S GIVEN FROPA CLOSE TO SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
EAST COAST...A COLD FRONT WILL BE PROPELLED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON A FAIRLY POTENT VORT MAX ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH...BUT GIVEN THAT THE FRONT SHOULD
BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA (I.E. TIP OF SAMPSON COUNTY). HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO MOSTLY THE LOW TO MID 50S.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US...WILL RIDGE
DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S (WITH MAYBE SOME
UPPER 40S IN THE NORMAL COOLER LOCALES).

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/END OF THE
WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT (AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO
RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A
WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES
AMONG THE MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NC). FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST UNTIL MODELS CONVERGE TO A SOLUTION...BUT WILL INDICATE
INCREASED CLOUDINESS. ALTHOUGH...WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW END SLIGHT
CHANCES POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 203 PM SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST UP THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. CENTRAL NC WILL
REMAIN LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY-SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE EXCEPTION
COULD BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TAF SITES (KFAY AND KRWI)...WHERE A
MOIST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COULD RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER.

ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.

LOOKING AHEAD: A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH/NW.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 201852
AFDRAH

FXUS62 KRAH DDHHMM
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST UP THE THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT...AND THEN UP THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST UP THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. CENTRAL NC WILL
LARGELY REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/UPPER
LOW WITH BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG ATLANTIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
DPVA. SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INLAND...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT TO SMALL
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SE/EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S WEST TO MIDS 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OFF CAPE LOOKOUT SUNDAY MORNING WILL
QUICKLY ACCELERATE UP THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY AS IT GETS
ABSORBED BY THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING SEWD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND
ANY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL ALSO SERVE TO PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS COME IN JUST SLIGHTLY
WETTER...POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE OUT ANY POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP IN ASSOC/W THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE ADDED SOME
SPRINKLES  EVERYWHERE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S GIVEN FROPA CLOSE TO SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SATURDAY...

AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE
EAST COAST...A COLD FRONT WILL BE PROPELLED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON A FAIRLY POTENT VORT MAX ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH...BUT GIVEN THAT THE FRONT SHOULD
BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA (I.E. TIP OF SAMPSON COUNTY). HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO MOSTLY THE LOW TO MID 50S.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US...WILL RIDGE
DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S (WITH MAYBE SOME
UPPER 40S IN THE NORMAL COOLER LOCALES).

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE/END OF THE
WEEK AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL INCREASE AND BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT (AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST) ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO
RETURN TO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A
WEAKNESS ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES
AMONG THE MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NC). FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST UNTIL MODELS CONVERGE TO A SOLUTION...BUT WILL INDICATE
INCREASED CLOUDINESS. ALTHOUGH...WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW END SLIGHT
CHANCES POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF.



&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 203 PM SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST UP THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AS IT TRACKS UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. CENTRAL NC WILL
REMAIN LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY-SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE EXCEPTION
COULD BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TAF SITES (KFAY AND KRWI)...WHERE A
MOIST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COULD RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AN
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER.

ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.

LOOKING AHEAD: A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH/NW.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 201803
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
203 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST UP THE THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT...AND THEN UP THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 917 AM SATURDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IS VERY IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL DECREASE HEADING EAST TOWARD
THE COAST...CENTRAL NC WILL LARGELY REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COMPACT UPPER LOW. THUS...EXPECT THE CURRENT
EAST-WEST TREND IN CLOUD COVER WITH SIMILAR RAIN CHANCES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST....WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS IT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INLAND. WILL INDICATE SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES(SAMPSON/WAYNE/CUMBERLAND)
WITH DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S WITH
THE OPAQUE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES
SUFFICIENTLY OPAQUE TO SHAVE OFF A DEGREE OR TWO.

WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST TO MIDS
60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

DRY/SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AS THE STALLED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES PROGRESSIVE...MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE
ATTENDANT SFC LOW. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE OUT ANY
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN ASSOC/W THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUN
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IN THE MID 80S...LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S
GIVEN FROPA CLOSE TO SUNRISE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...

DRY AND COOL TO START THE WEEK...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS/COOL LATE
WEEK...

A LARGE SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DEPICTING THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE... ESSENTIALLY NIL POP AND QPF FOR MONDAY. GOOD
DRY AND COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE LATER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY
COURTESY OF THE STRONG HIGH.

MODELS HAVE YET TO RESOLVE DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK. SEVERAL OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OR OVER OUR REGION BY THU-FRI. SOME MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES HAVE LESS IN THE WAY OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT. REGARDLESS... IT
DOES APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ESPECIALLY LATE WED INTO THU. JUST HOW DEEP THIS MOISTURE BECOMES
SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY THE HEIGHTS ALOFT WHICH MAY NOT BE RESOLVED
FOR A FEW MODEL CYCLES.

THEREFORE... THE ONLY CHANCES MADE TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES A BIT MONDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN EXPECTED
(PARTLY SUNNY SKIES... BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON)...
AND LESS POP WITH THE EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE (NOW NIL).
HIGHS GENERALLY 77-82 N TO SE.

MUCH COOLER TUE-WED WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE COOLER RURAL PIEDMONT
AND SANDHILLS LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT... THEN
HIGHS ONLY 70-75 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

WE WILL SHOW A TREND TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND LOWER
AFTERNOON HIGHS THU-FRI DUE TO THE ATLANTIC FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR A
WEAKNESS ALOFT. POP MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS IF
THE EC/CANADIAN TEND TO VERIFY BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 203 PM SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...AND WILL
BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS IT
TRACKS UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN LOCATED ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY-SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
TAF SITES (KFAY AND KRWI)...WHERE A MOIST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
OFF THE ATLANTIC COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER.

ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.

LOOKING AHEAD: A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH/NW.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 201803
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
203 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST UP THE THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT...AND THEN UP THE MID-
ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 917 AM SATURDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IS VERY IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL DECREASE HEADING EAST TOWARD
THE COAST...CENTRAL NC WILL LARGELY REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COMPACT UPPER LOW. THUS...EXPECT THE CURRENT
EAST-WEST TREND IN CLOUD COVER WITH SIMILAR RAIN CHANCES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST....WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS IT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INLAND. WILL INDICATE SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES(SAMPSON/WAYNE/CUMBERLAND)
WITH DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S WITH
THE OPAQUE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES
SUFFICIENTLY OPAQUE TO SHAVE OFF A DEGREE OR TWO.

WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST TO MIDS
60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

DRY/SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AS THE STALLED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES PROGRESSIVE...MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE
ATTENDANT SFC LOW. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE OUT ANY
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN ASSOC/W THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUN
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IN THE MID 80S...LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S
GIVEN FROPA CLOSE TO SUNRISE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...

DRY AND COOL TO START THE WEEK...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS/COOL LATE
WEEK...

A LARGE SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DEPICTING THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE... ESSENTIALLY NIL POP AND QPF FOR MONDAY. GOOD
DRY AND COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE LATER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY
COURTESY OF THE STRONG HIGH.

MODELS HAVE YET TO RESOLVE DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK. SEVERAL OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OR OVER OUR REGION BY THU-FRI. SOME MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES HAVE LESS IN THE WAY OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT. REGARDLESS... IT
DOES APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ESPECIALLY LATE WED INTO THU. JUST HOW DEEP THIS MOISTURE BECOMES
SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY THE HEIGHTS ALOFT WHICH MAY NOT BE RESOLVED
FOR A FEW MODEL CYCLES.

THEREFORE... THE ONLY CHANCES MADE TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES A BIT MONDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN EXPECTED
(PARTLY SUNNY SKIES... BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON)...
AND LESS POP WITH THE EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE (NOW NIL).
HIGHS GENERALLY 77-82 N TO SE.

MUCH COOLER TUE-WED WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE COOLER RURAL PIEDMONT
AND SANDHILLS LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT... THEN
HIGHS ONLY 70-75 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

WE WILL SHOW A TREND TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND LOWER
AFTERNOON HIGHS THU-FRI DUE TO THE ATLANTIC FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR A
WEAKNESS ALOFT. POP MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS IF
THE EC/CANADIAN TEND TO VERIFY BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 203 PM SATURDAY...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL TRACK NORTHEAST UP
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...AND WILL
BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS IT
TRACKS UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN LOCATED ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY-SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
TAF SITES (KFAY AND KRWI)...WHERE A MOIST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
OFF THE ATLANTIC COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER.

ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.

LOOKING AHEAD: A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH/NW.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 201316
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
917 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 917 AM SATURDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IS VERY IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL DECREASE HEADING EAST TOWARD
THE COAST...CENTRAL NC WILL LARGELY REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COMPACT UPPER LOW. THUS...EXPECT THE CURRENT
EAST-WEST TREND IN CLOUD COVER WITH SIMILAR RAIN CHANCES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST....WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS IT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INLAND. WILL INDICATE SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES(SAMPSON/WAYNE/CUMBERLAND)
WITH DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S WITH
THE OPAQUE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES
SUFFICIENTLY OPAQUE TO SHAVE OFF A DEGREE OR TWO.

WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST TO MIDS
60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

DRY/SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AS THE STALLED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES PROGRESSIVE...MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE
ATTENDANT SFC LOW. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE OUT ANY
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN ASSOC/W THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUN
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IN THE MID 80S...LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S
GIVEN FROPA CLOSE TO SUNRISE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...

DRY AND COOL TO START THE WEEK...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS/COOL LATE
WEEK...

A LARGE SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DEPICTING THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE... ESSENTIALLY NIL POP AND QPF FOR MONDAY. GOOD
DRY AND COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE LATER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY
COURTESY OF THE STRONG HIGH.

MODELS HAVE YET TO RESOLVE DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK. SEVERAL OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OR OVER OUR REGION BY THU-FRI. SOME MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES HAVE LESS IN THE WAY OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT. REGARDLESS... IT
DOES APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ESPECIALLY LATE WED INTO THU. JUST HOW DEEP THIS MOISTURE BECOMES
SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY THE HEIGHTS ALOFT WHICH MAY NOT BE RESOLVED
FOR A FEW MODEL CYCLES.

THEREFORE... THE ONLY CHANCES MADE TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES A BIT MONDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN EXPECTED
(PARTLY SUNNY SKIES... BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON)...
AND LESS POP WITH THE EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE (NOW NIL).
HIGHS GENERALLY 77-82 N TO SE.

MUCH COOLER TUE-WED WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE COOLER RURAL PIEDMONT
AND SANDHILLS LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT... THEN
HIGHS ONLY 70-75 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

WE WILL SHOW A TREND TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND LOWER
AFTERNOON HIGHS THU-FRI DUE TO THE ATLANTIC FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR A
WEAKNESS ALOFT. POP MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS IF
THE EC/CANADIAN TEND TO VERIFY BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM CURRENT LIFR/IFR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS
WHICH WILL SCATTER OUT BY 12-14Z...VFR CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT
NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT THE
INT/GSO/RDU TERMINALS...LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY (SUBSIDENT
SIDE) OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THE FAY/RWI
TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS (BASES 2500-
3500 FT AGL) AND ISOLD SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOC/W A
MOIST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLD SHOWER AT THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS AND A 10-15 KT WESTERLY BREEZE IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY
AFT/EVE...VFR CONDITIONS (AND A NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE) WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NW. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 201316
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
917 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 917 AM SATURDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST IS VERY IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL DECREASE HEADING EAST TOWARD
THE COAST...CENTRAL NC WILL LARGELY REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COMPACT UPPER LOW. THUS...EXPECT THE CURRENT
EAST-WEST TREND IN CLOUD COVER WITH SIMILAR RAIN CHANCES TO PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST....WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS IT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INLAND. WILL INDICATE SLIGHT TO
SMALL CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES(SAMPSON/WAYNE/CUMBERLAND)
WITH DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S WITH
THE OPAQUE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES
SUFFICIENTLY OPAQUE TO SHAVE OFF A DEGREE OR TWO.

WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST TO MIDS
60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

DRY/SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AS THE STALLED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES PROGRESSIVE...MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE
ATTENDANT SFC LOW. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE OUT ANY
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN ASSOC/W THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUN
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IN THE MID 80S...LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S
GIVEN FROPA CLOSE TO SUNRISE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...

DRY AND COOL TO START THE WEEK...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS/COOL LATE
WEEK...

A LARGE SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DEPICTING THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE... ESSENTIALLY NIL POP AND QPF FOR MONDAY. GOOD
DRY AND COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE LATER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY
COURTESY OF THE STRONG HIGH.

MODELS HAVE YET TO RESOLVE DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK. SEVERAL OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OR OVER OUR REGION BY THU-FRI. SOME MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES HAVE LESS IN THE WAY OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT. REGARDLESS... IT
DOES APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ESPECIALLY LATE WED INTO THU. JUST HOW DEEP THIS MOISTURE BECOMES
SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY THE HEIGHTS ALOFT WHICH MAY NOT BE RESOLVED
FOR A FEW MODEL CYCLES.

THEREFORE... THE ONLY CHANCES MADE TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES A BIT MONDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN EXPECTED
(PARTLY SUNNY SKIES... BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON)...
AND LESS POP WITH THE EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE (NOW NIL).
HIGHS GENERALLY 77-82 N TO SE.

MUCH COOLER TUE-WED WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE COOLER RURAL PIEDMONT
AND SANDHILLS LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT... THEN
HIGHS ONLY 70-75 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

WE WILL SHOW A TREND TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND LOWER
AFTERNOON HIGHS THU-FRI DUE TO THE ATLANTIC FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR A
WEAKNESS ALOFT. POP MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS IF
THE EC/CANADIAN TEND TO VERIFY BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM CURRENT LIFR/IFR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS
WHICH WILL SCATTER OUT BY 12-14Z...VFR CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT
NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT THE
INT/GSO/RDU TERMINALS...LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY (SUBSIDENT
SIDE) OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THE FAY/RWI
TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS (BASES 2500-
3500 FT AGL) AND ISOLD SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOC/W A
MOIST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLD SHOWER AT THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS AND A 10-15 KT WESTERLY BREEZE IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY
AFT/EVE...VFR CONDITIONS (AND A NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE) WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NW. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 201203
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
803 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS WILL TEMPORARILY STALL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. DPVA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOSTER CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE
PRESENT ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE THE FL/GA COAST TODAY...WITH GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING OF THE SFC CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST
OFFSHORE THE SC/NC COAST TONIGHT. EXPECT INCREASINGLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH WESTWARD EXTENT FROM THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR WHERE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STALLED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHERE FCST SOUNDINGS (I.E. AT INT/GSO) INDICATE A
DRY COLUMN AND PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL DECREASE HEADING
EAST TOWARD THE COAST...CENTRAL NC WILL LARGELY REMAIN ON THE
SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST....THOUGH ISOLD SHOWER
ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR SE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE ATLANTIC AND DIURNAL HEATING
RESULT IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION. WILL INDICATE A DRY FORECAST
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS IN
SAMPSON/WAYNE/CUMBERLAND OR SAMPSON ALONE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

DRY/SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AS THE STALLED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES PROGRESSIVE...MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE
ATTENDANT SFC LOW. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE OUT ANY
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN ASSOC/W THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUN
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IN THE MID 80S...LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S
GIVEN FROPA CLOSE TO SUNRISE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...

DRY AND COOL TO START THE WEEK...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS/COOL LATE
WEEK...

A LARGE SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DEPICTING THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE... ESSENTIALLY NIL POP AND QPF FOR MONDAY. GOOD
DRY AND COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE LATER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY
COURTESY OF THE STRONG HIGH.

MODELS HAVE YET TO RESOLVE DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK. SEVERAL OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OR OVER OUR REGION BY THU-FRI. SOME MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES HAVE LESS IN THE WAY OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT. REGARDLESS... IT
DOES APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ESPECIALLY LATE WED INTO THU. JUST HOW DEEP THIS MOISTURE BECOMES
SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY THE HEIGHTS ALOFT WHICH MAY NOT BE RESOLVED
FOR A FEW MODEL CYCLES.

THEREFORE... THE ONLY CHANCES MADE TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES A BIT MONDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN EXPECTED
(PARTLY SUNNY SKIES... BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON)...
AND LESS POP WITH THE EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE (NOW NIL).
HIGHS GENERALLY 77-82 N TO SE.

MUCH COOLER TUE-WED WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE COOLER RURAL PIEDMONT
AND SANDHILLS LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT... THEN
HIGHS ONLY 70-75 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

WE WILL SHOW A TREND TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND LOWER
AFTERNOON HIGHS THU-FRI DUE TO THE ATLANTIC FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR A
WEAKNESS ALOFT. POP MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS IF
THE EC/CANADIAN TEND TO VERIFY BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM CURRENT LIFR/IFR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS
WHICH WILL SCATTER OUT BY 12-14Z...VFR CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT
NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT THE
INT/GSO/RDU TERMINALS...LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY (SUBSIDENT
SIDE) OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THE FAY/RWI
TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS (BASES 2500-
3500 FT AGL) AND ISOLD SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOC/W A
MOIST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLD SHOWER AT THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS AND A 10-15 KT WESTERLY BREEZE IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY
AFT/EVE...VFR CONDITIONS (AND A NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE) WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NW. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 201203
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
803 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS WILL TEMPORARILY STALL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. DPVA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOSTER CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE
PRESENT ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE THE FL/GA COAST TODAY...WITH GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING OF THE SFC CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST
OFFSHORE THE SC/NC COAST TONIGHT. EXPECT INCREASINGLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH WESTWARD EXTENT FROM THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR WHERE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STALLED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHERE FCST SOUNDINGS (I.E. AT INT/GSO) INDICATE A
DRY COLUMN AND PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL DECREASE HEADING
EAST TOWARD THE COAST...CENTRAL NC WILL LARGELY REMAIN ON THE
SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST....THOUGH ISOLD SHOWER
ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR SE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE ATLANTIC AND DIURNAL HEATING
RESULT IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION. WILL INDICATE A DRY FORECAST
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS IN
SAMPSON/WAYNE/CUMBERLAND OR SAMPSON ALONE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

DRY/SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AS THE STALLED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES PROGRESSIVE...MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE
ATTENDANT SFC LOW. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE OUT ANY
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN ASSOC/W THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUN
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IN THE MID 80S...LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S
GIVEN FROPA CLOSE TO SUNRISE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...

DRY AND COOL TO START THE WEEK...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS/COOL LATE
WEEK...

A LARGE SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DEPICTING THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE... ESSENTIALLY NIL POP AND QPF FOR MONDAY. GOOD
DRY AND COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE LATER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY
COURTESY OF THE STRONG HIGH.

MODELS HAVE YET TO RESOLVE DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK. SEVERAL OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OR OVER OUR REGION BY THU-FRI. SOME MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES HAVE LESS IN THE WAY OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT. REGARDLESS... IT
DOES APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ESPECIALLY LATE WED INTO THU. JUST HOW DEEP THIS MOISTURE BECOMES
SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY THE HEIGHTS ALOFT WHICH MAY NOT BE RESOLVED
FOR A FEW MODEL CYCLES.

THEREFORE... THE ONLY CHANCES MADE TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES A BIT MONDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN EXPECTED
(PARTLY SUNNY SKIES... BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON)...
AND LESS POP WITH THE EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE (NOW NIL).
HIGHS GENERALLY 77-82 N TO SE.

MUCH COOLER TUE-WED WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE COOLER RURAL PIEDMONT
AND SANDHILLS LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT... THEN
HIGHS ONLY 70-75 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

WE WILL SHOW A TREND TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND LOWER
AFTERNOON HIGHS THU-FRI DUE TO THE ATLANTIC FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR A
WEAKNESS ALOFT. POP MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS IF
THE EC/CANADIAN TEND TO VERIFY BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM CURRENT LIFR/IFR FOG AND LOW CEILINGS
WHICH WILL SCATTER OUT BY 12-14Z...VFR CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT
NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT THE
INT/GSO/RDU TERMINALS...LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY (SUBSIDENT
SIDE) OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THE FAY/RWI
TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS (BASES 2500-
3500 FT AGL) AND ISOLD SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOC/W A
MOIST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLD SHOWER AT THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS AND A 10-15 KT WESTERLY BREEZE IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY
AFT/EVE...VFR CONDITIONS (AND A NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE) WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NW. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 200745
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
345 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS WILL TEMPORARILY STALL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. DPVA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOSTER CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE
PRESENT ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE THE FL/GA COAST TODAY...WITH GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING OF THE SFC CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST
OFFSHORE THE SC/NC COAST TONIGHT. EXPECT INCREASINGLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH WESTWARD EXTENT FROM THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR WHERE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STALLED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHERE FCST SOUNDINGS (I.E. AT INT/GSO) INDICATE A
DRY COLUMN AND PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL DECREASE HEADING
EAST TOWARD THE COAST...CENTRAL NC WILL LARGELY REMAIN ON THE
SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST....THOUGH ISOLD SHOWER
ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR SE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE ATLANTIC AND DIURNAL HEATING
RESULT IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION. WILL INDICATE A DRY FORECAST
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS IN
SAMPSON/WAYNE/CUMBERLAND OR SAMPSON ALONE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

DRY/SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AS THE STALLED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES PROGRESSIVE...MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE
ATTENDANT SFC LOW. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE OUT ANY
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN ASSOC/W THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUN
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IN THE MID 80S...LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S
GIVEN FROPA CLOSE TO SUNRISE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...

DRY AND COOL TO START THE WEEK... THEN INCREASING CLOUDS/COOL LATE
WEEK...

A LARGE SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DEPICTING THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE... ESSENTIALLY NIL POP AND QPF FOR MONDAY. GOOD
DRY AND COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE LATER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY
COURTESY OF THE STRONG HIGH.

MODELS HAVE YET TO RESOLVE DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK. SEVERAL OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OR OVER OUR REGION BY THU-FRI. SOME MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES HAVE LESS IN THE WAY OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT. REGARDLESS... IT
DOES APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ESPECIALLY LATE WED INTO THU. JUST HOW DEEP THIS MOISTURE BECOMES
SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY THE HEIGHTS ALOFT WHICH MAY NOT BE RESOLVED
FOR A FEW MODEL CYCLES.

THEREFORE... THE ONLY CHANCES MADE TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES A BIT MONDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN EXPECTED
(PARTLY SUNNY SKIES... BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON)...
AND LESS POP WITH THE EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE (NOW NIL).
HIGHS GENERALLY 77-82 N TO SE.

MUCH COOLER TUE-WED WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE COOLER RURAL PIEDMONT
AND SANDHILLS LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT... THEN
HIGHS ONLY 70-75 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

WE WILL SHOW A TREND TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND LOWER
AFTERNOON HIGHS THU-FRI DUE TO THE ATLANTIC FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR A
WEAKNESS ALOFT. POP MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS IF
THE EC/CANADIAN TEND TO VERIFY BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT THE INT/GSO/RDU TERMINALS...ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTED SW-NE FROM THE
FL PANHANDLE THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THE
FAY/RWI TERMINALS...ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR
CEILINGS (BASES 2500-3500 FT AGL) DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOC/W
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC ADVECTING INLAND ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLD SHOWER AT THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS AND A 10-15 KT WESTERLY BREEZE IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY
AFT/EVE...VFR CONDITIONS (AND A NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE) WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NW. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 200733
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS WILL TEMPORARILY STALL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. DPVA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOSTER CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE
PRESENT ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE THE FL/GA COAST TODAY...WITH GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING OF THE SFC CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST
OFFSHORE THE SC/NC COAST TONIGHT. EXPECT INCREASINGLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH WESTWARD EXTENT FROM THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR WHERE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STALLED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHERE FCST SOUNDINGS (I.E. AT INT/GSO) INDICATE A
DRY COLUMN AND PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL DECREASE HEADING
EAST TOWARD THE COAST...CENTRAL NC WILL LARGELY REMAIN ON THE
SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST....THOUGH ISOLD SHOWER
ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR SE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE ATLANTIC AND DIURNAL HEATING
RESULT IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION. WILL INDICATE A DRY FORECAST
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS IN
SAMPSON/WAYNE/CUMBERLAND OR SAMPSON ALONE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

DRY/SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AS THE STALLED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES PROGRESSIVE...MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE
ATTENDANT SFC LOW. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE OUT ANY
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN ASSOC/W THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUN
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IN THE MID 80S...LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S
GIVEN FROPA CLOSE TO SUNRISE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...

DRY AND COOL TO START THE WEEK... THEN INCREASING CLOUDS/COOL LATE
WEEK...

A LARGE SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DEPICTING THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE... ESSENTIALLY NIL POP AND QPF FOR MONDAY. GOOD
DRY AND COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE LATER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY
COURTESY OF THE STRONG HIGH.

MODELS HAVE YET TO RESOLVE DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK. SEVERAL OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OR OVER OUR REGION BY THU-FRI. SOME MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES HAVE LESS IN THE WAY OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT. REGARDLESS... IT
DOES APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ESPECIALLY LATE WED INTO THU. JUST HOW DEEP THIS MOISTURE BECOMES
SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY THE HEIGHTS ALOFT WHICH MAY NOT BE RESOLVED
FOR A FEW MODEL CYCLES.

THEREFORE... THE ONLY CHANCES MADE TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES A BIT MONDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN EXPECTED
(PARTLY SUNNY SKIES... BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON)...
AND LESS POP WITH THE EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE (NOW NIL).
HIGHS GENERALLY 77-82 N TO SE.

MUCH COOLER TUE-WED WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE COOLER RURAL PIEDMONT
AND SANDHILLS LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT... THEN
HIGHS ONLY 70-75 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

WE WILL SHOW A TREND TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND LOWER
AFTERNOON HIGHS THU-FRI DUE TO THE ATLANTIC FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR A
WEAKNESS ALOFT. POP MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS IF
THE EC/CANADIAN TEND TO VERIFY BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND SKIES ARE BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD A VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF NC LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NW
SUNDAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. AN
EXPANSIVE DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN DRY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 200733
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS WILL TEMPORARILY STALL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. DPVA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOSTER CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE
PRESENT ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE THE FL/GA COAST TODAY...WITH GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING OF THE SFC CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST
OFFSHORE THE SC/NC COAST TONIGHT. EXPECT INCREASINGLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH WESTWARD EXTENT FROM THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR WHERE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STALLED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHERE FCST SOUNDINGS (I.E. AT INT/GSO) INDICATE A
DRY COLUMN AND PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL DECREASE HEADING
EAST TOWARD THE COAST...CENTRAL NC WILL LARGELY REMAIN ON THE
SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST....THOUGH ISOLD SHOWER
ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR SE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE ATLANTIC AND DIURNAL HEATING
RESULT IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION. WILL INDICATE A DRY FORECAST
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS IN
SAMPSON/WAYNE/CUMBERLAND OR SAMPSON ALONE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

DRY/SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AS THE STALLED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES PROGRESSIVE...MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE
ATTENDANT SFC LOW. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE OUT ANY
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN ASSOC/W THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUN
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IN THE MID 80S...LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S
GIVEN FROPA CLOSE TO SUNRISE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...

DRY AND COOL TO START THE WEEK... THEN INCREASING CLOUDS/COOL LATE
WEEK...

A LARGE SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DEPICTING THE LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE... ESSENTIALLY NIL POP AND QPF FOR MONDAY. GOOD
DRY AND COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE LATER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY
COURTESY OF THE STRONG HIGH.

MODELS HAVE YET TO RESOLVE DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK. SEVERAL OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OR OVER OUR REGION BY THU-FRI. SOME MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES HAVE LESS IN THE WAY OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT. REGARDLESS... IT
DOES APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ESPECIALLY LATE WED INTO THU. JUST HOW DEEP THIS MOISTURE BECOMES
SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY THE HEIGHTS ALOFT WHICH MAY NOT BE RESOLVED
FOR A FEW MODEL CYCLES.

THEREFORE... THE ONLY CHANCES MADE TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES A BIT MONDAY WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN EXPECTED
(PARTLY SUNNY SKIES... BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON)...
AND LESS POP WITH THE EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE (NOW NIL).
HIGHS GENERALLY 77-82 N TO SE.

MUCH COOLER TUE-WED WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE COOLER RURAL PIEDMONT
AND SANDHILLS LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT... THEN
HIGHS ONLY 70-75 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

WE WILL SHOW A TREND TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND LOWER
AFTERNOON HIGHS THU-FRI DUE TO THE ATLANTIC FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR A
WEAKNESS ALOFT. POP MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECASTS IF
THE EC/CANADIAN TEND TO VERIFY BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND SKIES ARE BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD A VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF NC LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NW
SUNDAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. AN
EXPANSIVE DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN DRY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 200702
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
302 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS WILL TEMPORARILY STALL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. DPVA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOSTER CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE
PRESENT ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE THE FL/GA COAST TODAY...WITH GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING OF THE SFC CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST
OFFSHORE THE SC/NC COAST TONIGHT. EXPECT INCREASINGLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH WESTWARD EXTENT FROM THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR WHERE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STALLED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHERE FCST SOUNDINGS (I.E. AT INT/GSO) INDICATE A
DRY COLUMN AND PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL DECREASE HEADING
EAST TOWARD THE COAST...CENTRAL NC WILL LARGELY REMAIN ON THE
SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST....THOUGH ISOLD SHOWER
ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR SE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE ATLANTIC AND DIURNAL HEATING
RESULT IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION. WILL INDICATE A DRY FORECAST
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS IN
SAMPSON/WAYNE/CUMBERLAND OR SAMPSON ALONE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

DRY/SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AS THE STALLED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES PROGRESSIVE...MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE
ATTENDANT SFC LOW. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE OUT ANY
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN ASSOC/W THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUN
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IN THE MID 80S...LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S
GIVEN FROPA CLOSE TO SUNRISE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST (AND STRENGTHEN) BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US. THUS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
INCREASE AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY
COMPONENT ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT COASTAL WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES
AMONG THE MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NC). HOWEVER...WILL HOLD OFF INTRODUCING
ANY POPS AT THIS TIME UNTIL MODELS CONVERGE TO A SOLUTION...BUT WILL
INDICATE INCREASED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND SKIES ARE BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD A VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF NC LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NW
SUNDAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. AN
EXPANSIVE DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN DRY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 200702
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
302 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS WILL TEMPORARILY STALL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. DPVA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOSTER CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE
PRESENT ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE THE FL/GA COAST TODAY...WITH GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING OF THE SFC CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST
OFFSHORE THE SC/NC COAST TONIGHT. EXPECT INCREASINGLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH WESTWARD EXTENT FROM THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR WHERE SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STALLED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHERE FCST SOUNDINGS (I.E. AT INT/GSO) INDICATE A
DRY COLUMN AND PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL DECREASE HEADING
EAST TOWARD THE COAST...CENTRAL NC WILL LARGELY REMAIN ON THE
SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST....THOUGH ISOLD SHOWER
ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR SE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE ATLANTIC AND DIURNAL HEATING
RESULT IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION. WILL INDICATE A DRY FORECAST
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS IN
SAMPSON/WAYNE/CUMBERLAND OR SAMPSON ALONE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY...

DRY/SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AS THE STALLED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES PROGRESSIVE...MOVING OFFSHORE WITH THE
ATTENDANT SFC LOW. POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL PROPEL A COLD FRONT EAST TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. POOR DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY RULE OUT ANY
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN ASSOC/W THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUN
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IN THE MID 80S...LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S
GIVEN FROPA CLOSE TO SUNRISE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST (AND STRENGTHEN) BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US. THUS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
INCREASE AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY
COMPONENT ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT COASTAL WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES
AMONG THE MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NC). HOWEVER...WILL HOLD OFF INTRODUCING
ANY POPS AT THIS TIME UNTIL MODELS CONVERGE TO A SOLUTION...BUT WILL
INDICATE INCREASED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND SKIES ARE BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD A VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF NC LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NW
SUNDAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. AN
EXPANSIVE DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN DRY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 200205
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY... THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM FRIDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SKIES CONTINUING TO CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA AS
MOISTURE IS SHUNTED OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS STILL A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BELOW 700MB TO KEEP SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT.  HIGH CLOUDS JUST OFFSHORE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD BACK
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.   HOWEVER...THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY THIN AND NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON LOWS.   AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WIND OVERNIGHT.SO WHILE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE RATHER LOW ALREADY...FOG SHOULD BE VERY
ISOLATED.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. -BLS

SATURDAY:
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
SATURDAY...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE 250
CENTRAL US RIDGE NOSES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA...SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM DIVING SEWD OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE REMNANT LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEDGE SOUTHWESTWARD DOWN
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA.
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW OFF THE SE COAST BEGINS TO
LIFT NE. IMPACTS FROM THESE CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO BEARING
ON FORECAST HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE
IN THE 1395-1402M RANGE...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS NEAR-LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST...PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PRESENCE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST
SHOULD MAINTAIN MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE EAST WITH COOLER TEMPS
OUT WEST WHERE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S WEST TO MID 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

CENTRAL NC WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS TO START THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. FIRST...TO THE EAST...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING
ALONG THE REMAINS OF A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE LATEST THINKING
FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT TAKE ON ANY 250
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD.
REGARDLESS...THE LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT ALL THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A DRY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND FAIRLY WARM DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S. THIS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST... PROPELLING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THE POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN...ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
MEANS ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH DIURNAL
HEATING SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO MOSTLY THE MID TO UPPER 50S...MAYBE NEAR 60 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST (AND STRENGTHEN) BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US. THUS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
INCREASE AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY
COMPONENT ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT COASTAL WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES
AMONG THE MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NC). HOWEVER...WILL HOLD OFF INTRODUCING
ANY POPS AT THIS TIME UNTIL MODELS CONVERGE TO A SOLUTION...BUT WILL
INDICATE INCREASED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND SKIES ARE BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD A VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF NC LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NW
SUNDAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. AN
EXPANSIVE DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN DRY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...SEC/CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 200205
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY... THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM FRIDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SKIES CONTINUING TO CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA AS
MOISTURE IS SHUNTED OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS STILL A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BELOW 700MB TO KEEP SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT.  HIGH CLOUDS JUST OFFSHORE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD BACK
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.   HOWEVER...THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY THIN AND NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON LOWS.   AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WIND OVERNIGHT.SO WHILE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE RATHER LOW ALREADY...FOG SHOULD BE VERY
ISOLATED.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. -BLS

SATURDAY:
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
SATURDAY...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE 250
CENTRAL US RIDGE NOSES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA...SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM DIVING SEWD OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE REMNANT LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEDGE SOUTHWESTWARD DOWN
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA.
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW OFF THE SE COAST BEGINS TO
LIFT NE. IMPACTS FROM THESE CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO BEARING
ON FORECAST HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE
IN THE 1395-1402M RANGE...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS NEAR-LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST...PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PRESENCE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST
SHOULD MAINTAIN MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE EAST WITH COOLER TEMPS
OUT WEST WHERE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S WEST TO MID 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

CENTRAL NC WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS TO START THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. FIRST...TO THE EAST...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING
ALONG THE REMAINS OF A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE LATEST THINKING
FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT TAKE ON ANY 250
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD.
REGARDLESS...THE LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT ALL THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A DRY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND FAIRLY WARM DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S. THIS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST... PROPELLING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THE POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN...ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
MEANS ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH DIURNAL
HEATING SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO MOSTLY THE MID TO UPPER 50S...MAYBE NEAR 60 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST (AND STRENGTHEN) BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US. THUS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
INCREASE AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY
COMPONENT ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT COASTAL WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES
AMONG THE MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NC). HOWEVER...WILL HOLD OFF INTRODUCING
ANY POPS AT THIS TIME UNTIL MODELS CONVERGE TO A SOLUTION...BUT WILL
INDICATE INCREASED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND SKIES ARE BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD A VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF NC LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NW
SUNDAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. AN
EXPANSIVE DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN DRY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL/BLS
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...SEC/CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 200002
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
802 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY... THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT: BEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEDGES MORE PROMINENTLY
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MORE OF A
EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FEED. AS SUCH...IT APPEARS THAT THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE BEHIND US...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE OWING TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW.

EXPECT BULK OF CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND EVENTUAL
ADVECTION OF A DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. A STEADY NELY WIND OF 4 TO
5 KTS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY:
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
SATURDAY...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE 250
CENTRAL US RIDGE NOSES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA...SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM DIVING SEWD OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE REMNANT LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEDGE SOUTHWESTWARD DOWN
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA.
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW OFF THE SE COAST BEGINS TO
LIFT NE. IMPACTS FROM THESE CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO BEARING
ON FORECAST HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE
IN THE 1395-1402M RANGE...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS NEAR-LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST...PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PRESENCE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST
SHOULD MAINTAIN MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE EAST WITH COOLER TEMPS
OUT WEST WHERE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S WEST TO MID 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

CENTRAL NC WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS TO START THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. FIRST...TO THE EAST...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING
ALONG THE REMAINS OF A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE LATEST THINKING
FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT TAKE ON ANY 250
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD.
REGARDLESS...THE LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT ALL THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A DRY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND FAIRLY WARM DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S. THIS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST... PROPELLING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THE POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN...ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
MEANS ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH DIURNAL
HEATING SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO MOSTLY THE MID TO UPPER 50S...MAYBE NEAR 60 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST (AND STRENGTHEN) BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US. THUS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
INCREASE AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY
COMPONENT ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT COASTAL WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES
AMONG THE MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NC). HOWEVER...WILL HOLD OFF INTRODUCING
ANY POPS AT THIS TIME UNTIL MODELS CONVERGE TO A SOLUTION...BUT WILL
INDICATE INCREASED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND SKIES ARE BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD A VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF NC LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NW
SUNDAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. AN
EXPANSIVE DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN DRY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...SEC/CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 200002
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
802 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY... THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT: BEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEDGES MORE PROMINENTLY
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MORE OF A
EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FEED. AS SUCH...IT APPEARS THAT THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE BEHIND US...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE OWING TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW.

EXPECT BULK OF CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND EVENTUAL
ADVECTION OF A DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. A STEADY NELY WIND OF 4 TO
5 KTS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY:
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
SATURDAY...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE 250
CENTRAL US RIDGE NOSES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA...SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM DIVING SEWD OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE REMNANT LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEDGE SOUTHWESTWARD DOWN
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA.
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW OFF THE SE COAST BEGINS TO
LIFT NE. IMPACTS FROM THESE CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO BEARING
ON FORECAST HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE
IN THE 1395-1402M RANGE...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS NEAR-LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST...PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PRESENCE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST
SHOULD MAINTAIN MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE EAST WITH COOLER TEMPS
OUT WEST WHERE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S WEST TO MID 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

CENTRAL NC WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS TO START THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. FIRST...TO THE EAST...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING
ALONG THE REMAINS OF A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE LATEST THINKING
FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT TAKE ON ANY 250
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD.
REGARDLESS...THE LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT ALL THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A DRY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND FAIRLY WARM DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S. THIS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST... PROPELLING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THE POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN...ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
MEANS ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH DIURNAL
HEATING SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO MOSTLY THE MID TO UPPER 50S...MAYBE NEAR 60 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST (AND STRENGTHEN) BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US. THUS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
INCREASE AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY
COMPONENT ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT COASTAL WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES
AMONG THE MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NC). HOWEVER...WILL HOLD OFF INTRODUCING
ANY POPS AT THIS TIME UNTIL MODELS CONVERGE TO A SOLUTION...BUT WILL
INDICATE INCREASED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND SKIES ARE BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD A VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF NC LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NW
SUNDAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. AN
EXPANSIVE DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN DRY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...SEC/CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 191851
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY... THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT: BEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEDGES MORE PROMINENTLY
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN MORE OF A
EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FEED. AS SUCH...IT APPEARS THAT THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE BEHIND US...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE OWING TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW.

EXPECT BULK OF CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND EVENTUAL
ADVECTION OF A DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. A STEADY NELY WIND OF 4 TO
5 KTS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY:
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
SATURDAY...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL US RIDGE NOSES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA...SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM DIVING SEWD OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE REMNANT LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT THE
SURFACE...DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEDGE SOUTHWESTWARD DOWN
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA.
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW OFF THE SE COAST BEGINS TO
LIFT NE. IMPACTS FROM THESE CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO BEARING
ON FORECAST HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE
IN THE 1395-1402M RANGE...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS NEAR-LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST...PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PRESENCE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST
SHOULD MAINTAIN MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE EAST WITH COOLER TEMPS
OUT WEST WHERE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S WEST TO MID 60S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

CENTRAL NC WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS TO START THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. FIRST...TO THE EAST...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING
ALONG THE REMAINS OF A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE LATEST THINKING
FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT TAKE ON ANY
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD.
REGARDLESS...THE LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT ALL THE
ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A DRY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND FAIRLY WARM DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S. THIS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST... PROPELLING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THE POOR
DIURNAL TIMING AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN...ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
MEANS ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH DIURNAL
HEATING SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FALLING INTO MOSTLY THE MID TO UPPER 50S...MAYBE NEAR 60 DEGREES
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST (AND STRENGTHEN) BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST US. THUS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL
INCREASE AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF AN EAST OF NORTHERLY
COMPONENT ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT COASTAL WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST (ALTHOUGH TO VARYING DEGREES
AMONG THE MODELS). THIS WOULD INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NC). HOWEVER...WILL HOLD OFF INTRODUCING
ANY POPS AT THIS TIME UNTIL MODELS CONVERGE TO A SOLUTION...BUT WILL
INDICATE INCREASED CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE FURTHER
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...ADVECTING
DRIER AIR INTO THE AIR FROM THE NORTH. AFTER PEAK HEATING...THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A STEADY 4 TO 5KT NELY WIND
SHOULD DETER ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD A VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF NC LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NW
SUNDAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. AN
EXPANSIVE DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN DRY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 191730
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY... THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM FRIDAY...

A FEW SPRINKLES REMAIN OF WHAT WAS A DECENT AREA OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT EARLIER
THIS MORNING...FOCUSED ALONG A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONFLUENCE ZONE
SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANKS OF THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH AND
SELY ATLANTIC MOISTURE RETURN FLOW.

THIS BEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH WEDGES MORE PROMINENTLY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
NC...RESULTING IN MORE OF A EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FEED.
AS SUCH...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE BEHIND US...WITH
ONLY AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT OWING TO WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN A VERY SLOW DEMISE OF
THIS MORNINGS PERVASIVE CLOUD COVER. IF SKIES REMAIN BROKEN TO
OVERCAST...TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. IF ENOUGH
BREAKS OCCUR...COULD SEE TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S.
BELIEVE THE LATER SCENARIO WILL BE MORE PROBABLE ACROSS THE
EAST/NORTHEAST WHILE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND WEST. MAX TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH
MID 70S IN THE NW PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...EXPECT BULK OF CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
EVENTUAL ADVECTION OF A DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. EXPECT A STEADY
EAST-NE WIND OVERNIGHT (5-10 MPH). THIS MIXING WILL PREVENT NEAR
SURFACE AIR MASS FROM REALIZING FULL COOLING POTENTIAL. MIN TEMPS
NEAR 60-LOWER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY...DRY AIR RIDGE WILL EXTEND SW-NE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
PROVIDING SUNNY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY. SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE SE U.S.
COAST. NOT EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT INITIALLY ON
TEMPS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE IN THE 1395-1402M
RANGE...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS NEAR-LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THICKER VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED OVER MAINLY
THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST. LATEST GFS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR EAST AS I-95 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
EVENING BUT THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS OVERDONE. PRESENCE OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD MAINTAIN MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE EAST WITH COOLER
MIN TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE WEST WHERE SKIES WILL BE NO WORSE THAN
PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPS UPPER 50S WEST TO MID 60S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...

SPLIT STREAM FLOW WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND RESULT IN A LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SFC FRONTAL WAVE LIFTING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE A SERIES OF
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES CARVE A TROUGH AND PROPEL A SFC
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES SUN-MON.
GUIDANCE IS THEN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
SEPARATION AND RETREAT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT LEAVES BEHIND MID-
UPPER TROUGHINESS INVOF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST...WHILE THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGING INITIALLY OVER WESTERN NOAM BUILDS...IN PROGRESS FLOW
ALOFT...EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST.

SUN: VERY WARM...AND DRY. AN APPALACHIAN-LEE SFC TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP...BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SFC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THE OFFSHORE PASSING FRONTAL WAVE (A
BAROCLINIC ONE WHICH MAY ACQUIRE SUB-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT
BEST OWING TO THE STRONGLY SHEARED AND DEEP LAYER BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH IT WILL EVOLVE). UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...FULL SUN TEMPERATURES WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1415 METERS SUPPORT HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

SUN NIGHT-MON: NWP GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO HASTEN THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS SUCH THAT FROPA IN CENTRAL NC
WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE SUN NIGHT-EARLY MON PER A CONSENSUS OF THE
00Z NWP DATA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION...AND
ALONG THE FRONTAL MOIST AXIS...MAY DRIFT INTO THE PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT...BUT DIURNAL TIMING AND GREATLY LIMITED GULF MOISTURE RETURN
SUGGESTS COVERAGE SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST...BEFORE
DIMINISHING WITH TIME OVERNIGHT AND EASTWARD EXTENT. THE FASTER
FRONTAL PROGRESSION ALSO FAVORS THE FRONT BEING SE OF CENTRAL NC BY
LATE MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ENSURE ANY ASSOCIATED REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR IN COASTAL AREAS. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED THAN COLD AIR ADVECTION MON...SO
TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM...IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

TUE-THU: ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WILL EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT...WHICH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL CLEAR ALL BUT
PERHAPS SOUTHERN FL BY MID NEXT WEEK. DRY AIR RIDGING IN CENTRAL NC
WILL RESULT FROM THE PARENT HIGH CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BOTH TUE-WED. SINCE THE SFC HIGH
CENTER WILL BE SO WELL REMOVED FROM CENTRAL NC/OVER THE NE
CONUS...THE ASSOCIATED MSLP GRADIENT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ENOUGH
STIRRING OF THE SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT TO KEEP LOWS FROM DIPPING INTO
THE 40S ON MORE THAN AN ISOLATED BASIS OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...WITH LOWS OTHERWISE IN THE 50S. BY THU...THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO ASSUME A MORE NE TO ENE
COMPONENT...WHICH WOULD SERVE TO DIRECT MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS WESTWARD
INTO CENTRAL NC WED NIGHT-THU. IN ADDITION...THE PAST COUPLE OF
GUIDANCE RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SFC
WAVE DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THU...WHICH WOULD
ENHANCE BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS...BY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE FURTHER
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...ADVECTING
DRIER AIR INTO THE AIR FROM THE NORTH. AFTER PEAK HEATING...THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A STEADY 4 TO 5KT NELY WIND
SHOULD DETER ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD A VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF NC LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NW
SUNDAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. AN
EXPANSIVE DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN DRY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 191730
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY... THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM FRIDAY...

A FEW SPRINKLES REMAIN OF WHAT WAS A DECENT AREA OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT EARLIER
THIS MORNING...FOCUSED ALONG A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONFLUENCE ZONE
SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANKS OF THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH AND
SELY ATLANTIC MOISTURE RETURN FLOW.

THIS BEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH WEDGES MORE PROMINENTLY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
NC...RESULTING IN MORE OF A EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FEED.
AS SUCH...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE BEHIND US...WITH
ONLY AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT OWING TO WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN A VERY SLOW DEMISE OF
THIS MORNINGS PERVASIVE CLOUD COVER. IF SKIES REMAIN BROKEN TO
OVERCAST...TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. IF ENOUGH
BREAKS OCCUR...COULD SEE TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S.
BELIEVE THE LATER SCENARIO WILL BE MORE PROBABLE ACROSS THE
EAST/NORTHEAST WHILE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND WEST. MAX TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH
MID 70S IN THE NW PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...EXPECT BULK OF CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
EVENTUAL ADVECTION OF A DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. EXPECT A STEADY
EAST-NE WIND OVERNIGHT (5-10 MPH). THIS MIXING WILL PREVENT NEAR
SURFACE AIR MASS FROM REALIZING FULL COOLING POTENTIAL. MIN TEMPS
NEAR 60-LOWER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY...DRY AIR RIDGE WILL EXTEND SW-NE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
PROVIDING SUNNY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY. SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE SE U.S.
COAST. NOT EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT INITIALLY ON
TEMPS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE IN THE 1395-1402M
RANGE...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS NEAR-LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THICKER VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED OVER MAINLY
THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST. LATEST GFS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR EAST AS I-95 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
EVENING BUT THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS OVERDONE. PRESENCE OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD MAINTAIN MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE EAST WITH COOLER
MIN TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE WEST WHERE SKIES WILL BE NO WORSE THAN
PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPS UPPER 50S WEST TO MID 60S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...

SPLIT STREAM FLOW WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND RESULT IN A LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SFC FRONTAL WAVE LIFTING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE A SERIES OF
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES CARVE A TROUGH AND PROPEL A SFC
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES SUN-MON.
GUIDANCE IS THEN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
SEPARATION AND RETREAT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT LEAVES BEHIND MID-
UPPER TROUGHINESS INVOF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST...WHILE THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGING INITIALLY OVER WESTERN NOAM BUILDS...IN PROGRESS FLOW
ALOFT...EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST.

SUN: VERY WARM...AND DRY. AN APPALACHIAN-LEE SFC TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP...BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SFC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THE OFFSHORE PASSING FRONTAL WAVE (A
BAROCLINIC ONE WHICH MAY ACQUIRE SUB-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT
BEST OWING TO THE STRONGLY SHEARED AND DEEP LAYER BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH IT WILL EVOLVE). UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...FULL SUN TEMPERATURES WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1415 METERS SUPPORT HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

SUN NIGHT-MON: NWP GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO HASTEN THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS SUCH THAT FROPA IN CENTRAL NC
WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE SUN NIGHT-EARLY MON PER A CONSENSUS OF THE
00Z NWP DATA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION...AND
ALONG THE FRONTAL MOIST AXIS...MAY DRIFT INTO THE PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT...BUT DIURNAL TIMING AND GREATLY LIMITED GULF MOISTURE RETURN
SUGGESTS COVERAGE SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST...BEFORE
DIMINISHING WITH TIME OVERNIGHT AND EASTWARD EXTENT. THE FASTER
FRONTAL PROGRESSION ALSO FAVORS THE FRONT BEING SE OF CENTRAL NC BY
LATE MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ENSURE ANY ASSOCIATED REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR IN COASTAL AREAS. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED THAN COLD AIR ADVECTION MON...SO
TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM...IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

TUE-THU: ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WILL EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT...WHICH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL CLEAR ALL BUT
PERHAPS SOUTHERN FL BY MID NEXT WEEK. DRY AIR RIDGING IN CENTRAL NC
WILL RESULT FROM THE PARENT HIGH CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BOTH TUE-WED. SINCE THE SFC HIGH
CENTER WILL BE SO WELL REMOVED FROM CENTRAL NC/OVER THE NE
CONUS...THE ASSOCIATED MSLP GRADIENT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ENOUGH
STIRRING OF THE SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT TO KEEP LOWS FROM DIPPING INTO
THE 40S ON MORE THAN AN ISOLATED BASIS OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...WITH LOWS OTHERWISE IN THE 50S. BY THU...THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO ASSUME A MORE NE TO ENE
COMPONENT...WHICH WOULD SERVE TO DIRECT MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS WESTWARD
INTO CENTRAL NC WED NIGHT-THU. IN ADDITION...THE PAST COUPLE OF
GUIDANCE RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SFC
WAVE DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THU...WHICH WOULD
ENHANCE BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS...BY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE FURTHER
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...ADVECTING
DRIER AIR INTO THE AIR FROM THE NORTH. AFTER PEAK HEATING...THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A STEADY 4 TO 5KT NELY WIND
SHOULD DETER ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD A VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF NC LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NW
SUNDAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. AN
EXPANSIVE DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN DRY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 191405
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1005 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY... THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM FRIDAY...

A FEW SPRINKLES REMAIN OF WHAT WAS A DECENT AREA OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT EARLIER
THIS MORNING...FOCUSED ALONG A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONFLUENCE ZONE
SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANKS OF THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH AND
SELY ATLANTIC MOISTURE RETURN FLOW.

THIS BEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH WEDGES MORE PROMINENTLY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
NC...RESULTING IN MORE OF A EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FEED.
AS SUCH...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE BEHIND US...WITH
ONLY AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT OWING TO WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN A VERY SLOW DEMISE OF
THIS MORNINGS PERVASIVE CLOUD COVER. IF SKIES REMAIN BROKEN TO
OVERCAST...TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. IF ENOUGH
BREAKS OCCUR...COULD SEE TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S.
BELIEVE THE LATER SCENARIO WILL BE MORE PROBABLE ACROSS THE
EAST/NORTHEAST WHILE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND WEST. MAX TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH
MID 70S IN THE NW PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...EXPECT BULK OF CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
EVENTUAL ADVECTION OF A DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. EXPECT A STEADY
EAST-NE WIND OVERNIGHT (5-10 MPH). THIS MIXING WILL PREVENT NEAR
SURFACE AIR MASS FROM REALIZING FULL COOLING POTENTIAL. MIN TEMPS
NEAR 60-LOWER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY...DRY AIR RIDGE WILL EXTEND SW-NE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
PROVIDING SUNNY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY. SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE SE U.S.
COAST. NOT EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT INITIALLY ON
TEMPS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE IN THE 1395-1402M
RANGE...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS NEAR-LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THICKER VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED OVER MAINLY
THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST. LATEST GFS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR EAST AS I-95 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
EVENING BUT THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS OVERDONE. PRESENCE OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD MAINTAIN MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE EAST WITH COOLER
MIN TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE WEST WHERE SKIES WILL BE NO WORSE THAN
PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPS UPPER 50S WEST TO MID 60S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...

SPLIT STREAM FLOW WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND RESULT IN A LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SFC FRONTAL WAVE LIFTING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE A SERIES OF
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES CARVE A TROUGH AND PROPEL A SFC
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES SUN-MON.
GUIDANCE IS THEN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
SEPARATION AND RETREAT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT LEAVES BEHIND MID-
UPPER TROUGHINESS INVOF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST...WHILE THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGING INITIALLY OVER WESTERN NOAM BUILDS...IN PROGRESS FLOW
ALOFT...EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST.

SUN: VERY WARM...AND DRY. AN APPALACHIAN-LEE SFC TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP...BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SFC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THE OFFSHORE PASSING FRONTAL WAVE (A
BAROCLINIC ONE WHICH MAY ACQUIRE SUB-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT
BEST OWING TO THE STRONGLY SHEARED AND DEEP LAYER BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH IT WILL EVOLVE). UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...FULL SUN TEMPERATURES WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1415 METERS SUPPORT HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

SUN NIGHT-MON: NWP GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO HASTEN THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS SUCH THAT FROPA IN CENTRAL NC
WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE SUN NIGHT-EARLY MON PER A CONSENSUS OF THE
00Z NWP DATA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION...AND
ALONG THE FRONTAL MOIST AXIS...MAY DRIFT INTO THE PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT...BUT DIURNAL TIMING AND GREATLY LIMITED GULF MOISTURE RETURN
SUGGESTS COVERAGE SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST...BEFORE
DIMINISHING WITH TIME OVERNIGHT AND EASTWARD EXTENT. THE FASTER
FRONTAL PROGRESSION ALSO FAVORS THE FRONT BEING SE OF CENTRAL NC BY
LATE MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ENSURE ANY ASSOCIATED REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR IN COASTAL AREAS. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED THAN COLD AIR ADVECTION MON...SO
TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM...IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

TUE-THU: ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WILL EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT...WHICH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL CLEAR ALL BUT
PERHAPS SOUTHERN FL BY MID NEXT WEEK. DRY AIR RIDGING IN CENTRAL NC
WILL RESULT FROM THE PARENT HIGH CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BOTH TUE-WED. SINCE THE SFC HIGH
CENTER WILL BE SO WELL REMOVED FROM CENTRAL NC/OVER THE NE
CONUS...THE ASSOCIATED MSLP GRADIENT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ENOUGH
STIRRING OF THE SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT TO KEEP LOWS FROM DIPPING INTO
THE 40S ON MORE THAN AN ISOLATED BASIS OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...WITH LOWS OTHERWISE IN THE 50S. BY THU...THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO ASSUME A MORE NE TO ENE
COMPONENT...WHICH WOULD SERVE TO DIRECT MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS WESTWARD
INTO CENTRAL NC WED NIGHT-THU. IN ADDITION...THE PAST COUPLE OF
GUIDANCE RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SFC
WAVE DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THU...WHICH WOULD
ENHANCE BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS...BY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 10 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN AN LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS NC. THIS FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE A CLOUD DECK WITH BASES
4500-6000FT WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS HIGHLY PROBABLE OVER THE
PIEDMONT...AND SCATTER-BROKEN SKY CONDITIONS IN THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN.  AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS FURTHER INTO CENTRAL NC LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION...
DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVERAGE.

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD A VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF NC LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY AND CROSS
CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR WITH THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS
INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 191405
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1005 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY... THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM FRIDAY...

A FEW SPRINKLES REMAIN OF WHAT WAS A DECENT AREA OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT EARLIER
THIS MORNING...FOCUSED ALONG A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONFLUENCE ZONE
SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANKS OF THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH AND
SELY ATLANTIC MOISTURE RETURN FLOW.

THIS BEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH WEDGES MORE PROMINENTLY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
NC...RESULTING IN MORE OF A EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FEED.
AS SUCH...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE BEHIND US...WITH
ONLY AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT OWING TO WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW.

LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN A VERY SLOW DEMISE OF
THIS MORNINGS PERVASIVE CLOUD COVER. IF SKIES REMAIN BROKEN TO
OVERCAST...TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. IF ENOUGH
BREAKS OCCUR...COULD SEE TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S.
BELIEVE THE LATER SCENARIO WILL BE MORE PROBABLE ACROSS THE
EAST/NORTHEAST WHILE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND WEST. MAX TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH
MID 70S IN THE NW PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...EXPECT BULK OF CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
EVENTUAL ADVECTION OF A DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. EXPECT A STEADY
EAST-NE WIND OVERNIGHT (5-10 MPH). THIS MIXING WILL PREVENT NEAR
SURFACE AIR MASS FROM REALIZING FULL COOLING POTENTIAL. MIN TEMPS
NEAR 60-LOWER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY...DRY AIR RIDGE WILL EXTEND SW-NE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
PROVIDING SUNNY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY. SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE SE U.S.
COAST. NOT EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT INITIALLY ON
TEMPS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE IN THE 1395-1402M
RANGE...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS NEAR-LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THICKER VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED OVER MAINLY
THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST. LATEST GFS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR EAST AS I-95 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
EVENING BUT THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS OVERDONE. PRESENCE OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD MAINTAIN MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE EAST WITH COOLER
MIN TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE WEST WHERE SKIES WILL BE NO WORSE THAN
PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPS UPPER 50S WEST TO MID 60S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...

SPLIT STREAM FLOW WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND RESULT IN A LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SFC FRONTAL WAVE LIFTING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE A SERIES OF
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES CARVE A TROUGH AND PROPEL A SFC
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES SUN-MON.
GUIDANCE IS THEN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
SEPARATION AND RETREAT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT LEAVES BEHIND MID-
UPPER TROUGHINESS INVOF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST...WHILE THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGING INITIALLY OVER WESTERN NOAM BUILDS...IN PROGRESS FLOW
ALOFT...EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST.

SUN: VERY WARM...AND DRY. AN APPALACHIAN-LEE SFC TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP...BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SFC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THE OFFSHORE PASSING FRONTAL WAVE (A
BAROCLINIC ONE WHICH MAY ACQUIRE SUB-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT
BEST OWING TO THE STRONGLY SHEARED AND DEEP LAYER BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH IT WILL EVOLVE). UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...FULL SUN TEMPERATURES WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1415 METERS SUPPORT HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

SUN NIGHT-MON: NWP GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO HASTEN THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS SUCH THAT FROPA IN CENTRAL NC
WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE SUN NIGHT-EARLY MON PER A CONSENSUS OF THE
00Z NWP DATA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION...AND
ALONG THE FRONTAL MOIST AXIS...MAY DRIFT INTO THE PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT...BUT DIURNAL TIMING AND GREATLY LIMITED GULF MOISTURE RETURN
SUGGESTS COVERAGE SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST...BEFORE
DIMINISHING WITH TIME OVERNIGHT AND EASTWARD EXTENT. THE FASTER
FRONTAL PROGRESSION ALSO FAVORS THE FRONT BEING SE OF CENTRAL NC BY
LATE MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ENSURE ANY ASSOCIATED REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR IN COASTAL AREAS. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED THAN COLD AIR ADVECTION MON...SO
TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM...IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

TUE-THU: ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WILL EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT...WHICH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL CLEAR ALL BUT
PERHAPS SOUTHERN FL BY MID NEXT WEEK. DRY AIR RIDGING IN CENTRAL NC
WILL RESULT FROM THE PARENT HIGH CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BOTH TUE-WED. SINCE THE SFC HIGH
CENTER WILL BE SO WELL REMOVED FROM CENTRAL NC/OVER THE NE
CONUS...THE ASSOCIATED MSLP GRADIENT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ENOUGH
STIRRING OF THE SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT TO KEEP LOWS FROM DIPPING INTO
THE 40S ON MORE THAN AN ISOLATED BASIS OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...WITH LOWS OTHERWISE IN THE 50S. BY THU...THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO ASSUME A MORE NE TO ENE
COMPONENT...WHICH WOULD SERVE TO DIRECT MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS WESTWARD
INTO CENTRAL NC WED NIGHT-THU. IN ADDITION...THE PAST COUPLE OF
GUIDANCE RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SFC
WAVE DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THU...WHICH WOULD
ENHANCE BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS...BY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 10 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN AN LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS NC. THIS FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE A CLOUD DECK WITH BASES
4500-6000FT WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS HIGHLY PROBABLE OVER THE
PIEDMONT...AND SCATTER-BROKEN SKY CONDITIONS IN THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN.  AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS FURTHER INTO CENTRAL NC LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION...
DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVERAGE.

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD A VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF NC LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY AND CROSS
CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR WITH THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS
INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 191119
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
720 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY... THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL NC NC TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH
INCREASES...THIS CONVERSELY INCREASES THE LOW LEVEL EAST-NE FLOW OFF
TEH ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECK OF
STRATUS OR STRATOCU WITH CLOUD BASES 4500-6000FT. THE CLOUDS SHOULD
BE A BIT THICKER IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT IN VICINITY OF A WEAKENING
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FAR SE COUNTIES (DUE TO INLAND MOVING
SHOWERS FROM ONSHORE FLOW)...AND IN PROXIMITY OF THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH.

THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN MAX TEMPS TODAY. IF
OVERCAST SKIES DOMINATE THE REGION...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S
WILL BE COMMON. IF ENOUGH BREAKS OCCUR...COULD SEE TEMPS WARM INTO
THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S. BELIEVE THE LATER SCENARIO MORE POSSIBLE IN
THE EAST-SE WHILE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE WEST. MAX
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH MID-UPPER 70S IN THE
NW PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...EXPECT BULK OF CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
EVENTUAL ADVECTION OF A DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. EXPECT A STEADY
EAST-NE WIND OVERNIGHT (5-10 MPH). THIS MIXING WILL PREVENT NEAR
SURFACE AIR MASS FROM REALIZING FULL COOLING POTENTIAL. MIN TEMPS
NEAR 60-LOWER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY...DRY AIR RIDGE WILL EXTEND SW-NE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
PROVIDING SUNNY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY. SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE SE U.S.
COAST. NOT EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT INITIALLY ON
TEMPS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE IN THE 1395-1402M
RANGE...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS NEAR-LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THICKER VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED OVER MAINLY
THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST. LATEST GFS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR EAST AS I-95 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
EVENING BUT THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS OVERDONE. PRESENCE OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD MAINTAIN MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE EAST WITH COOLER
MIN TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE WEST WHERE SKIES WILL BE NO WORSE THAN
PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPS UPPER 50S WEST TO MID 60S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...

SPLIT STREAM FLOW WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND RESULT IN A LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SFC FRONTAL WAVE LIFTING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE A SERIES OF
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES CARVE A TROUGH AND PROPEL A SFC
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES SUN-MON.
GUIDANCE IS THEN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
SEPARATION AND RETREAT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT LEAVES BEHIND MID-
UPPER TROUGHINESS INVOF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST...WHILE THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGING INITIALLY OVER WESTERN NOAM BUILDS...IN PROGRESS FLOW
ALOFT...EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST.

SUN: VERY WARM...AND DRY. AN APPALACHIAN-LEE SFC TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP...BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SFC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THE OFFSHORE PASSING FRONTAL WAVE (A
BAROCLINIC ONE WHICH MAY ACQUIRE SUB-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT
BEST OWING TO THE STRONGLY SHEARED AND DEEP LAYER BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH IT WILL EVOLVE). UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...FULL SUN TEMPERATURES WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1415 METERS SUPPORT HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

SUN NIGHT-MON: NWP GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO HASTEN THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS SUCH THAT FROPA IN CENTRAL NC
WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE SUN NIGHT-EARLY MON PER A CONSENSUS OF THE
00Z NWP DATA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION...AND
ALONG THE FRONTAL MOIST AXIS...MAY DRIFT INTO THE PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT...BUT DIURNAL TIMING AND GREATLY LIMITED GULF MOISTURE RETURN
SUGGESTS COVERAGE SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST...BEFORE
DIMINISHING WITH TIME OVERNIGHT AND EASTWARD EXTENT. THE FASTER
FRONTAL PROGRESSION ALSO FAVORS THE FRONT BEING SE OF CENTRAL NC BY
LATE MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ENSURE ANY ASSOCIATED REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR IN COASTAL AREAS. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED THAN COLD AIR ADVECTION MON...SO
TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM...IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

TUE-THU: ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WILL EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT...WHICH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL CLEAR ALL BUT
PERHAPS SOUTHERN FL BY MID NEXT WEEK. DRY AIR RIDGING IN CENTRAL NC
WILL RESULT FROM THE PARENT HIGH CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BOTH TUE-WED. SINCE THE SFC HIGH
CENTER WILL BE SO WELL REMOVED FROM CENTRAL NC/OVER THE NE
CONUS...THE ASSOCIATED MSLP GRADIENT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ENOUGH
STIRRING OF THE SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT TO KEEP LOWS FROM DIPPING INTO
THE 40S ON MORE THAN AN ISOLATED BASIS OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...WITH LOWS OTHERWISE IN THE 50S. BY THU...THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO ASSUME A MORE NE TO ENE
COMPONENT...WHICH WOULD SERVE TO DIRECT MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS WESTWARD
INTO CENTRAL NC WED NIGHT-THU. IN ADDITION...THE PAST COUPLE OF
GUIDANCE RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SFC
WAVE DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THU...WHICH WOULD
ENHANCE BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS...BY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE YADKIN RIVER VALLEY WILL
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF KINT AND KGSO. THESE SHOWERS
MAY CAUSE A BRIEF INSTANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITY.

LATER TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE
NORTH. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN AN LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NC. THIS FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE A CLOUD DECK WITH
BASES 4500-6000FT WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS HIGHLY PROBABLE OVER THE
PIEDMONT...AND SCATTER-BROKEN SKY CONDITIONS IN THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN.  AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS FURTHER INTO CENTRAL NC LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION...
DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVERAGE.

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD A VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF NC LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY AND CROSS
CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR WITH THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS
INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 191119
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
720 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY... THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL NC NC TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH
INCREASES...THIS CONVERSELY INCREASES THE LOW LEVEL EAST-NE FLOW OFF
TEH ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECK OF
STRATUS OR STRATOCU WITH CLOUD BASES 4500-6000FT. THE CLOUDS SHOULD
BE A BIT THICKER IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT IN VICINITY OF A WEAKENING
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FAR SE COUNTIES (DUE TO INLAND MOVING
SHOWERS FROM ONSHORE FLOW)...AND IN PROXIMITY OF THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH.

THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN MAX TEMPS TODAY. IF
OVERCAST SKIES DOMINATE THE REGION...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S
WILL BE COMMON. IF ENOUGH BREAKS OCCUR...COULD SEE TEMPS WARM INTO
THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S. BELIEVE THE LATER SCENARIO MORE POSSIBLE IN
THE EAST-SE WHILE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE WEST. MAX
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH MID-UPPER 70S IN THE
NW PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...EXPECT BULK OF CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
EVENTUAL ADVECTION OF A DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. EXPECT A STEADY
EAST-NE WIND OVERNIGHT (5-10 MPH). THIS MIXING WILL PREVENT NEAR
SURFACE AIR MASS FROM REALIZING FULL COOLING POTENTIAL. MIN TEMPS
NEAR 60-LOWER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY...DRY AIR RIDGE WILL EXTEND SW-NE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
PROVIDING SUNNY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY. SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE SE U.S.
COAST. NOT EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT INITIALLY ON
TEMPS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE IN THE 1395-1402M
RANGE...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS NEAR-LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THICKER VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED OVER MAINLY
THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST. LATEST GFS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR EAST AS I-95 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
EVENING BUT THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS OVERDONE. PRESENCE OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD MAINTAIN MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE EAST WITH COOLER
MIN TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE WEST WHERE SKIES WILL BE NO WORSE THAN
PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPS UPPER 50S WEST TO MID 60S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...

SPLIT STREAM FLOW WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND RESULT IN A LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SFC FRONTAL WAVE LIFTING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE A SERIES OF
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES CARVE A TROUGH AND PROPEL A SFC
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES SUN-MON.
GUIDANCE IS THEN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
SEPARATION AND RETREAT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT LEAVES BEHIND MID-
UPPER TROUGHINESS INVOF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST...WHILE THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGING INITIALLY OVER WESTERN NOAM BUILDS...IN PROGRESS FLOW
ALOFT...EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST.

SUN: VERY WARM...AND DRY. AN APPALACHIAN-LEE SFC TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP...BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SFC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THE OFFSHORE PASSING FRONTAL WAVE (A
BAROCLINIC ONE WHICH MAY ACQUIRE SUB-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT
BEST OWING TO THE STRONGLY SHEARED AND DEEP LAYER BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH IT WILL EVOLVE). UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...FULL SUN TEMPERATURES WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1415 METERS SUPPORT HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

SUN NIGHT-MON: NWP GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO HASTEN THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS SUCH THAT FROPA IN CENTRAL NC
WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE SUN NIGHT-EARLY MON PER A CONSENSUS OF THE
00Z NWP DATA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION...AND
ALONG THE FRONTAL MOIST AXIS...MAY DRIFT INTO THE PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT...BUT DIURNAL TIMING AND GREATLY LIMITED GULF MOISTURE RETURN
SUGGESTS COVERAGE SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST...BEFORE
DIMINISHING WITH TIME OVERNIGHT AND EASTWARD EXTENT. THE FASTER
FRONTAL PROGRESSION ALSO FAVORS THE FRONT BEING SE OF CENTRAL NC BY
LATE MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ENSURE ANY ASSOCIATED REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR IN COASTAL AREAS. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED THAN COLD AIR ADVECTION MON...SO
TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM...IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

TUE-THU: ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WILL EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT...WHICH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL CLEAR ALL BUT
PERHAPS SOUTHERN FL BY MID NEXT WEEK. DRY AIR RIDGING IN CENTRAL NC
WILL RESULT FROM THE PARENT HIGH CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BOTH TUE-WED. SINCE THE SFC HIGH
CENTER WILL BE SO WELL REMOVED FROM CENTRAL NC/OVER THE NE
CONUS...THE ASSOCIATED MSLP GRADIENT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ENOUGH
STIRRING OF THE SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT TO KEEP LOWS FROM DIPPING INTO
THE 40S ON MORE THAN AN ISOLATED BASIS OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...WITH LOWS OTHERWISE IN THE 50S. BY THU...THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO ASSUME A MORE NE TO ENE
COMPONENT...WHICH WOULD SERVE TO DIRECT MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS WESTWARD
INTO CENTRAL NC WED NIGHT-THU. IN ADDITION...THE PAST COUPLE OF
GUIDANCE RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SFC
WAVE DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THU...WHICH WOULD
ENHANCE BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS...BY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE YADKIN RIVER VALLEY WILL
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF KINT AND KGSO. THESE SHOWERS
MAY CAUSE A BRIEF INSTANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITY.

LATER TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE
NORTH. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN AN LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NC. THIS FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE A CLOUD DECK WITH
BASES 4500-6000FT WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS HIGHLY PROBABLE OVER THE
PIEDMONT...AND SCATTER-BROKEN SKY CONDITIONS IN THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN.  AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS FURTHER INTO CENTRAL NC LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION...
DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVERAGE.

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD A VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF NC LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY AND CROSS
CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR WITH THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS
INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 190749
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
348 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY... THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL NC NC TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH
INCREASES...THIS CONVERSELY INCREASES THE LOW LEVEL EAST-NE FLOW OFF
TEH ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECK OF
STRATUS OR STRATOCU WITH CLOUD BASES 4500-6000FT. THE CLOUDS SHOULD
BE A BIT THICKER IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT IN VICINITY OF A WEAKENING
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FAR SE COUNTIES (DUE TO INLAND MOVING
SHOWERS FROM ONSHORE FLOW)...AND IN PROXIMITY OF THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH.

THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN MAX TEMPS TODAY. IF
OVERCAST SKIES DOMINATE THE REGION...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S
WILL BE COMMON. IF ENOUGH BREAKS OCCUR...COULD SEE TEMPS WARM INTO
THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S. BELIEVE THE LATER SCENARIO MORE POSSIBLE IN
THE EAST-SE WHILE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE WEST. MAX
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH MID-UPPER 70S IN THE
NW PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...EXPECT BULK OF CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
EVENTUAL ADVECTION OF A DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. EXPECT A STEADY
EAST-NE WIND OVERNIGHT (5-10 MPH). THIS MIXING WILL PREVENT NEAR
SURFACE AIR MASS FROM REALIZING FULL COOLING POTENTIAL. MIN TEMPS
NEAR 60-LOWER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY...DRY AIR RIDGE WILL EXTEND SW-NE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
PROVIDING SUNNY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY. SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE SE U.S.
COAST. NOT EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT INITIALLY ON
TEMPS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE IN THE 1395-1402M
RANGE...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS NEAR-LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THICKER VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED OVER MAINLY
THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST. LATEST GFS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR EAST AS I-95 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
EVENING BUT THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS OVERDONE. PRESENCE OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD MAINTAIN MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE EAST WITH COOLER
MIN TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE WEST WHERE SKIES WILL BE NO WORSE THAN
PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPS UPPER 50S WEST TO MID 60S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM FRIDAY...

SPLIT STREAM FLOW WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND RESULT IN A LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SFC FRONTAL WAVE LIFTING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE A SERIES OF
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES CARVE A TROUGH AND PROPEL A SFC
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES SUN-MON.
GUIDANCE IS THEN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
SEPARATION AND RETREAT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT LEAVES BEHIND MID-
UPPER TROUGHINESS INVOF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST...WHILE THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGING INITIALLY OVER WESTERN NOAM BUILDS...IN PROGRESS FLOW
ALOFT...EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST.

SUN: VERY WARM...AND DRY. AN APPALACHIAN-LEE SFC TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP...BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM SFC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THE OFFSHORE PASSING FRONTAL WAVE (A
BAROCLINIC ONE WHICH MAY ACQUIRE SUB-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AT
BEST OWING TO THE STRONGLY SHEARED AND DEEP LAYER BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH IT WILL EVOLVE). UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...FULL SUN TEMPERATURES WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1415 METERS SUPPORT HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

SUN NIGHT-MON: NWP GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO HASTEN THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS SUCH THAT FROPA IN CENTRAL NC
WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE SUN NIGHT-EARLY MON PER A CONSENSUS OF THE
00Z NWP DATA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION...AND
ALONG THE FRONTAL MOIST AXIS...MAY DRIFT INTO THE PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT...BUT DIURNAL TIMING AND GREATLY LIMITED GULF MOISTURE RETURN
SUGGESTS COVERAGE SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST...BEFORE
DIMINISHING WITH TIME OVERNIGHT AND EASTWARD EXTENT. THE FASTER
FRONTAL PROGRESSION ALSO FAVORS THE FRONT BEING SE OF CENTRAL NC BY
LATE MORNING...WHICH SHOULD ENSURE ANY ASSOCIATED REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR IN COASTAL AREAS. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED THAN COLD AIR ADVECTION MON...SO
TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM...IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

TUE-THU: ANOTHER STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WILL EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT...WHICH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL CLEAR ALL BUT
PERHAPS SOUTHERN FL BY MID NEXT WEEK. DRY AIR RIDGING IN CENTRAL NC
WILL RESULT FROM THE PARENT HIGH CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BOTH TUE-WED. SINCE THE SFC HIGH
CENTER WILL BE SO WELL REMOVED FROM CENTRAL NC/OVER THE NE
CONUS...THE ASSOCIATED MSLP GRADIENT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ENOUGH
STIRRING OF THE SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT TO KEEP LOWS FROM DIPPING INTO
THE 40S ON MORE THAN AN ISOLATED BASIS OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...WITH LOWS OTHERWISE IN THE 50S. BY THU...THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO ASSUME A MORE NE TO ENE
COMPONENT...WHICH WOULD SERVE TO DIRECT MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS WESTWARD
INTO CENTRAL NC WED NIGHT-THU. IN ADDITION...THE PAST COUPLE OF
GUIDANCE RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SFC
WAVE DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THU...WHICH WOULD
ENHANCE BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS...BY THU.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE YADKIN RIVER VALLEY WILL
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z IN VICINITY OF KINT AND KGSO.
THESE SHOWERS MAY CAUSE A BRIEF INSTANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITY.

LATER TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE
NORTH. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN AN LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NC. THIS FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE A CLOUD DECK WITH
BASES 4500-6000FT WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS HIGHLY PROBABLE OVER THE
PIEDMONT...AND SCATTER-BROKEN SKY CONDITIONS IN THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN.  AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS FURTHER INTO CENTRAL NC LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION...
DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVERAGE.

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD A VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF NC LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY AND CROSS
CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR WITH THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS
INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 190714
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY... THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL NC NC TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH
INCREASES...THIS CONVERSELY INCREASES THE LOW LEVEL EAST-NE FLOW OFF
TEH ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECK OF
STRATUS OR STRATOCU WITH CLOUD BASES 4500-6000FT. THE CLOUDS SHOULD
BE A BIT THICKER IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT IN VICINITY OF A WEAKENING
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FAR SE COUNTIES (DUE TO INLAND MOVING
SHOWERS FROM ONSHORE FLOW)...AND IN PROXIMITY OF THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH.

THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN MAX TEMPS TODAY. IF
OVERCAST SKIES DOMINATE THE REGION...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S
WILL BE COMMON. IF ENOUGH BREAKS OCCUR...COULD SEE TEMPS WARM INTO
THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S. BELIEVE THE LATER SCENARIO MORE POSSIBLE IN
THE EAST-SE WHILE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE WEST. MAX
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH MID-UPPER 70S IN THE
NW PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...EXPECT BULK OF CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
EVENTUAL ADVECTION OF A DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. EXPECT A STEADY
EAST-NE WIND OVERNIGHT (5-10 MPH). THIS MIXING WILL PREVENT NEAR
SURFACE AIR MASS FROM REALIZING FULL COOLING POTENTIAL. MIN TEMPS
NEAR 60-LOWER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY...DRY AIR RIDGE WILL EXTEND SW-NE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
PROVIDING SUNNY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY. SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE SE U.S.
COAST. NOT EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT INITIALLY ON
TEMPS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE IN THE 1395-1402M
RANGE...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS NEAR-LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THICKER VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED OVER MAINLY
THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST. LATEST GFS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR EAST AS I-95 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
EVENING BUT THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS OVERDONE. PRESENCE OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD MAINTAIN MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE EAST WITH COOLER
MIN TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE WEST WHERE SKIES WILL BE NO WORSE THAN
PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPS UPPER 50S WEST TO MID 60S SE.

SUNDAY: AMPLIFYING/DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
POLAR WESTERLIES WILL PICK UP THE LINGERING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND KICK IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...LIFTING UP
THE NC COAST AND THEN OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. LITTLE TO NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE...BUT A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOP
INVOF OF THIS TROUGH...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE NEXT FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES PROJECTED TO CLIMB 20 METERS ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 224 PM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: 40 TO 60 METER HEIGHT FALLS TRAVERSING
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE AMPLIFYING NORTHER STREAM TROUGH
ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN US WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING . WRT THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY...THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE
FASTER SOLUTION OF THE EC...WHICH HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. GIVEN THE FASTER TIMING...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AND GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...CONVECTIVE/RAIN CHANCES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE. WILL
LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT FROPA COULD END BEING A NON-
MEASURABLE/SPRINKLE EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. FASTER FROPA WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: LIKE CLOCKWORK...A STRONG +1030MB CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH... ANCHORED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER CONFLUENCE ZONE IN THE
WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WILL PROVIDE THE FIRST DAYS OF FALL(AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
BEGINS MONDAY SEPT 22 AT 10:29 PM EDT)WITH BONA FIDE FALL
CONDITIONS. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS 70
TO 75. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE YADKIN RIVER VALLEY WILL
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z IN VICINITY OF KINT AND KGSO.
THESE SHOWERS MAY CAUSE A BRIEF INSTANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITY.

LATER TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE
NORTH. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN AN LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NC. THIS FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE A CLOUD DECK WITH
BASES 4500-6000FT WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS HIGHLY PROBABLE OVER THE
PIEDMONT...AND SCATTER-BROKEN SKY CONDITIONS IN THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN.  AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS FURTHER INTO CENTRAL NC LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION...
DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVERAGE.

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD A VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF NC LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY AND CROSS
CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR WITH THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS
INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 190714
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY... THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL EXTEND SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL NC NC TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH
INCREASES...THIS CONVERSELY INCREASES THE LOW LEVEL EAST-NE FLOW OFF
TEH ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECK OF
STRATUS OR STRATOCU WITH CLOUD BASES 4500-6000FT. THE CLOUDS SHOULD
BE A BIT THICKER IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT IN VICINITY OF A WEAKENING
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FAR SE COUNTIES (DUE TO INLAND MOVING
SHOWERS FROM ONSHORE FLOW)...AND IN PROXIMITY OF THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH.

THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN MAX TEMPS TODAY. IF
OVERCAST SKIES DOMINATE THE REGION...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S
WILL BE COMMON. IF ENOUGH BREAKS OCCUR...COULD SEE TEMPS WARM INTO
THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S. BELIEVE THE LATER SCENARIO MORE POSSIBLE IN
THE EAST-SE WHILE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE WEST. MAX
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH MID-UPPER 70S IN THE
NW PIEDMONT.

TONIGHT...EXPECT BULK OF CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
EVENTUAL ADVECTION OF A DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. EXPECT A STEADY
EAST-NE WIND OVERNIGHT (5-10 MPH). THIS MIXING WILL PREVENT NEAR
SURFACE AIR MASS FROM REALIZING FULL COOLING POTENTIAL. MIN TEMPS
NEAR 60-LOWER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY...DRY AIR RIDGE WILL EXTEND SW-NE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
PROVIDING SUNNY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY. SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE SE U.S.
COAST. NOT EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT INITIALLY ON
TEMPS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE IN THE 1395-1402M
RANGE...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS NEAR-LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THICKER VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED OVER MAINLY
THE EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST. LATEST GFS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP AS FAR EAST AS I-95 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
EVENING BUT THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS OVERDONE. PRESENCE OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SHOULD MAINTAIN MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE EAST WITH COOLER
MIN TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE WEST WHERE SKIES WILL BE NO WORSE THAN
PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPS UPPER 50S WEST TO MID 60S SE.

SUNDAY: AMPLIFYING/DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
POLAR WESTERLIES WILL PICK UP THE LINGERING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND KICK IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...LIFTING UP
THE NC COAST AND THEN OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. LITTLE TO NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE...BUT A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOP
INVOF OF THIS TROUGH...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE NEXT FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES PROJECTED TO CLIMB 20 METERS ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 224 PM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: 40 TO 60 METER HEIGHT FALLS TRAVERSING
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE AMPLIFYING NORTHER STREAM TROUGH
ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN US WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING . WRT THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY...THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE
FASTER SOLUTION OF THE EC...WHICH HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. GIVEN THE FASTER TIMING...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AND GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...CONVECTIVE/RAIN CHANCES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE. WILL
LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT FROPA COULD END BEING A NON-
MEASURABLE/SPRINKLE EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. FASTER FROPA WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: LIKE CLOCKWORK...A STRONG +1030MB CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH... ANCHORED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER CONFLUENCE ZONE IN THE
WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WILL PROVIDE THE FIRST DAYS OF FALL(AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
BEGINS MONDAY SEPT 22 AT 10:29 PM EDT)WITH BONA FIDE FALL
CONDITIONS. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS 70
TO 75. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE YADKIN RIVER VALLEY WILL
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z IN VICINITY OF KINT AND KGSO.
THESE SHOWERS MAY CAUSE A BRIEF INSTANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITY.

LATER TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE
NORTH. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN AN LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NC. THIS FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE A CLOUD DECK WITH
BASES 4500-6000FT WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS HIGHLY PROBABLE OVER THE
PIEDMONT...AND SCATTER-BROKEN SKY CONDITIONS IN THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN.  AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS FURTHER INTO CENTRAL NC LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION...
DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVERAGE.

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD A VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF NC LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY AND CROSS
CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR WITH THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS
INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 190558
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY... THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM THURSDAY...

A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
BECOME PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING.
AIDED BY WEAK TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE WITHIN A RIDGE OF THETA-E AND
SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY...ABOUT 500 J/KG MUCAPE... BELOW 600MB.
NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE CAPE AND INCREASE THE
CINH...BUT THE HRRR SUGGESTS SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE WELL PAST
MIDNIGHT.  THE FREEZING LEVEL ON THE KGSO RAOB WAS AROUND 10K
FT...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...THOUGH THIS WILL
BECOME LESS LIKELY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TO LIKELY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A TREND
DOWNWARD AFTER 06Z.  LOWS UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST.

FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT: RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR SE WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT PERSISTS BUT IS CONFINED TO THE
FAR SRN AND SE CWA... WHERE PW VALUES WILL HOVER NEAR 1.4-1.5". THE
ONSHORE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW COULD DRAW SHALLOW SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS INLAND OVER THE FAR SE CWA. ISOLATED UPSLOPE-
SUPPORTED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WRN CWA AS WELL. IN
GENERAL HOWEVER... THE TRADITIONAL MODELS REMAIN TOO WET... SHOWING
PRECIP COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA... WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE WRN/SRN AND SE EDGES OF THE CWA
FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP
SLIGHTLY... INDICATING HIGHS OF 76-81. LOWS 56-61 WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WEST AND MOSTLY CLEAR EAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 224 PM THURSDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL US RIDGE NOSES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA...SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM DIVING
SEWD OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE REMNANT LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEDGE
SOUTHWESTWARD DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA. RESULTANT LOW PWATS AND A STABLE AIR COLUMN WILL SECURE
DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY: AMPLIFYING/DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
POLAR WESTERLIES WILL PICK UP THE LINGERING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND KICK IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...LIFTING UP
THE NC COAST AND THEN OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. LITTLE TO NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE...BUT A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOP
INVOF OF THIS TROUGH...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE NEXT FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES PROJECTED TO CLIMB 20 METERS ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 224 PM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: 40 TO 60 METER HEIGHT FALLS TRAVERSING
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE AMPLIFYING NORTHER STREAM TROUGH
ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN US WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING . WRT THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY...THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE
FASTER SOLUTION OF THE EC...WHICH HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. GIVEN THE FASTER TIMING...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AND GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...CONVECTIVE/RAIN CHANCES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE. WILL
LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT FROPA COULD END BEING A NON-
MEASURABLE/SPRINKLE EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. FASTER FROPA WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: LIKE CLOCKWORK...A STRONG +1030MB CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH... ANCHORED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER CONFLUENCE ZONE IN THE
WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WILL PROVIDE THE FIRST DAYS OF FALL(AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
BEGINS MONDAY SEPT 22 AT 10:29 PM EDT)WITH BONA FIDE FALL
CONDITIONS. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS 70
TO 75. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE YADKIN RIVER VALLEY WILL
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z IN VICINITY OF KINT AND KGSO.
THESE SHOWERS MAY CAUSE A BRIEF INSTANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITY.

LATER TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE
NORTH. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN AN LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NC. THIS FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE A CLOUD DECK WITH
BASES 4500-6000FT WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS HIGHLY PROBABLE OVER THE
PIEDMONT...AND SCATTER-BROKEN SKY CONDITIONS IN THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN.  AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS FURTHER INTO CENTRAL NC LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION...
DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVERAGE.

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD A VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF NC LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY AND CROSS
CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR WITH THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS
INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 190558
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY... THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM THURSDAY...

A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
BECOME PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING.
AIDED BY WEAK TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE WITHIN A RIDGE OF THETA-E AND
SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY...ABOUT 500 J/KG MUCAPE... BELOW 600MB.
NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE CAPE AND INCREASE THE
CINH...BUT THE HRRR SUGGESTS SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE WELL PAST
MIDNIGHT.  THE FREEZING LEVEL ON THE KGSO RAOB WAS AROUND 10K
FT...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...THOUGH THIS WILL
BECOME LESS LIKELY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TO LIKELY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A TREND
DOWNWARD AFTER 06Z.  LOWS UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST.

FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT: RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR SE WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT PERSISTS BUT IS CONFINED TO THE
FAR SRN AND SE CWA... WHERE PW VALUES WILL HOVER NEAR 1.4-1.5". THE
ONSHORE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW COULD DRAW SHALLOW SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS INLAND OVER THE FAR SE CWA. ISOLATED UPSLOPE-
SUPPORTED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WRN CWA AS WELL. IN
GENERAL HOWEVER... THE TRADITIONAL MODELS REMAIN TOO WET... SHOWING
PRECIP COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA... WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE WRN/SRN AND SE EDGES OF THE CWA
FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP
SLIGHTLY... INDICATING HIGHS OF 76-81. LOWS 56-61 WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WEST AND MOSTLY CLEAR EAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 224 PM THURSDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL US RIDGE NOSES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA...SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM DIVING
SEWD OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE REMNANT LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEDGE
SOUTHWESTWARD DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA. RESULTANT LOW PWATS AND A STABLE AIR COLUMN WILL SECURE
DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY: AMPLIFYING/DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
POLAR WESTERLIES WILL PICK UP THE LINGERING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND KICK IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...LIFTING UP
THE NC COAST AND THEN OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. LITTLE TO NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE...BUT A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOP
INVOF OF THIS TROUGH...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE NEXT FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES PROJECTED TO CLIMB 20 METERS ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 224 PM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: 40 TO 60 METER HEIGHT FALLS TRAVERSING
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE AMPLIFYING NORTHER STREAM TROUGH
ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN US WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING . WRT THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY...THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE
FASTER SOLUTION OF THE EC...WHICH HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. GIVEN THE FASTER TIMING...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AND GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...CONVECTIVE/RAIN CHANCES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE. WILL
LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT FROPA COULD END BEING A NON-
MEASURABLE/SPRINKLE EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. FASTER FROPA WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: LIKE CLOCKWORK...A STRONG +1030MB CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH... ANCHORED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER CONFLUENCE ZONE IN THE
WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WILL PROVIDE THE FIRST DAYS OF FALL(AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
BEGINS MONDAY SEPT 22 AT 10:29 PM EDT)WITH BONA FIDE FALL
CONDITIONS. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS 70
TO 75. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE YADKIN RIVER VALLEY WILL
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z IN VICINITY OF KINT AND KGSO.
THESE SHOWERS MAY CAUSE A BRIEF INSTANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITY.

LATER TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE
NORTH. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN AN LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NC. THIS FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE A CLOUD DECK WITH
BASES 4500-6000FT WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS HIGHLY PROBABLE OVER THE
PIEDMONT...AND SCATTER-BROKEN SKY CONDITIONS IN THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN.  AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS FURTHER INTO CENTRAL NC LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION...
DIMINISHING THE CLOUD COVERAGE.

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD A VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF NC LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY AND CROSS
CENTRAL NC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR WITH THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS
INTO OUR AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 190157
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
950 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY... THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM THURSDAY...

A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
BECOME PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING.
AIDED BY WEAK TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE WITHIN A RIDGE OF THETA-E AND
SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY...ABOUT 500 J/KG MUCAPE... BELOW 600MB.
NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE CAPE AND INCREASE THE
CINH...BUT THE HRRR SUGGESTS SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE WELL PAST
MIDNIGHT.  THE FREEZING LEVEL ON THE KGSO RAOB WAS AROUND 10K
FT...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...THOUGH THIS WILL
BECOME LESS LIKELY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TO LIKELY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A TREND
DOWNWARD AFTER 06Z.  LOWS UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST.

FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT: RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR SE WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT PERSISTS BUT IS CONFINED TO THE
FAR SRN AND SE CWA... WHERE PW VALUES WILL HOVER NEAR 1.4-1.5". THE
ONSHORE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW COULD DRAW SHALLOW SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS INLAND OVER THE FAR SE CWA. ISOLATED UPSLOPE-
SUPPORTED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WRN CWA AS WELL. IN
GENERAL HOWEVER... THE TRADITIONAL MODELS REMAIN TOO WET... SHOWING
PRECIP COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA... WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE WRN/SRN AND SE EDGES OF THE CWA
FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP
SLIGHTLY... INDICATING HIGHS OF 76-81. LOWS 56-61 WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WEST AND MOSTLY CLEAR EAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 224 PM THURSDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL US RIDGE NOSES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA...SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM DIVING
SEWD OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE REMNANT LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEDGE
SOUTHWESTWARD DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA. RESULTANT LOW PWATS AND A STABLE AIR COLUMN WILL SECURE
DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY: AMPLIFYING/DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
POLAR WESTERLIES WILL PICK UP THE LINGERING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND KICK IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...LIFTING UP
THE NC COAST AND THEN OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. LITTLE TO NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE...BUT A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOP
INVOF OF THIS TROUGH...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE NEXT FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES PROJECTED TO CLIMB 20 METERS ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 224 PM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: 40 TO 60 METER HEIGHT FALLS TRAVERSING
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE AMPLIFYING NORTHER STREAM TROUGH
ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN US WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING . WRT THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY...THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE
FASTER SOLUTION OF THE EC...WHICH HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. GIVEN THE FASTER TIMING...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AND GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...CONVECTIVE/RAIN CHANCES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE. WILL
LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT FROPA COULD END BEING A NON-
MEASURABLE/SPRINKLE EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. FASTER FROPA WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: LIKE CLOCKWORK...A STRONG +1030MB CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH... ANCHORED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER CONFLUENCE ZONE IN THE
WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WILL PROVIDE THE FIRST DAYS OF FALL(AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
BEGINS MONDAY SEPT 22 AT 10:29 PM EDT)WITH BONA FIDE FALL
CONDITIONS. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS 70
TO 75. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 816 PM THURSDAY...

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KINT...KGSO...AND KRDU FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT... BECOMING 5-10 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z FRI... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY... ALTHOUGH MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SAT MORNING AS
THE LIGHT ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN FOR MON/TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...SEC/HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 190157
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
950 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY... THEN
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM THURSDAY...

A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
BECOME PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING.
AIDED BY WEAK TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...THE
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE WITHIN A RIDGE OF THETA-E AND
SOME SHALLOW INSTABILITY...ABOUT 500 J/KG MUCAPE... BELOW 600MB.
NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE CAPE AND INCREASE THE
CINH...BUT THE HRRR SUGGESTS SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE WELL PAST
MIDNIGHT.  THE FREEZING LEVEL ON THE KGSO RAOB WAS AROUND 10K
FT...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...THOUGH THIS WILL
BECOME LESS LIKELY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TO LIKELY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A TREND
DOWNWARD AFTER 06Z.  LOWS UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST.

FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT: RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR SE WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT PERSISTS BUT IS CONFINED TO THE
FAR SRN AND SE CWA... WHERE PW VALUES WILL HOVER NEAR 1.4-1.5". THE
ONSHORE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW COULD DRAW SHALLOW SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS INLAND OVER THE FAR SE CWA. ISOLATED UPSLOPE-
SUPPORTED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WRN CWA AS WELL. IN
GENERAL HOWEVER... THE TRADITIONAL MODELS REMAIN TOO WET... SHOWING
PRECIP COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA... WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE WRN/SRN AND SE EDGES OF THE CWA
FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP
SLIGHTLY... INDICATING HIGHS OF 76-81. LOWS 56-61 WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WEST AND MOSTLY CLEAR EAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 224 PM THURSDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL US RIDGE NOSES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA...SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM DIVING
SEWD OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE REMNANT LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEDGE
SOUTHWESTWARD DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA. RESULTANT LOW PWATS AND A STABLE AIR COLUMN WILL SECURE
DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY: AMPLIFYING/DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
POLAR WESTERLIES WILL PICK UP THE LINGERING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND KICK IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...LIFTING UP
THE NC COAST AND THEN OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. LITTLE TO NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE...BUT A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOP
INVOF OF THIS TROUGH...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE NEXT FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES PROJECTED TO CLIMB 20 METERS ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 224 PM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: 40 TO 60 METER HEIGHT FALLS TRAVERSING
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE AMPLIFYING NORTHER STREAM TROUGH
ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN US WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING . WRT THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY...THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE
FASTER SOLUTION OF THE EC...WHICH HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. GIVEN THE FASTER TIMING...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AND GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...CONVECTIVE/RAIN CHANCES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE. WILL
LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT FROPA COULD END BEING A NON-
MEASURABLE/SPRINKLE EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. FASTER FROPA WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: LIKE CLOCKWORK...A STRONG +1030MB CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH... ANCHORED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER CONFLUENCE ZONE IN THE
WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WILL PROVIDE THE FIRST DAYS OF FALL(AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
BEGINS MONDAY SEPT 22 AT 10:29 PM EDT)WITH BONA FIDE FALL
CONDITIONS. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS 70
TO 75. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 816 PM THURSDAY...

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KINT...KGSO...AND KRDU FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT... BECOMING 5-10 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z FRI... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY... ALTHOUGH MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SAT MORNING AS
THE LIGHT ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN FOR MON/TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...SEC/HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 190017
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
817 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... AS IT SLIDES EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY... THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM THURSDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: QUIET AND DRY NIGHT FOR MOST. SURFACE MAP SHOWS A
WEAK MSLP PATTERN OVER NC WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WRN
PIEDMONT... HELPING TO FOCUS MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 5-6 THOUSAND FT
IN THIS AREA AND FOSTERING DEVELOPMENT OF VERY ISOLATED SHALLOW
SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS... GIVEN THIS
WEAK LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK TERRAIN
UPGLIDE... BUT WITH A CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT AT 775-750 MB AND
WARM/DRY/STABLE AIR ABOVE... EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO BE STUNTED BOTH
VERTICALLY AND IN COVERAGE... AS PW REMAINS BELOW NORMAL. THE LATEST
SEVERAL HRRR RUNS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED SHOWER
CHANCE IN THE WRN AND EXTREME SW CWA THROUGH THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADUALLY DISPERSING WITH TIME... STILL GREATER OVER THE WRN CWA
THAN IN THE EAST... SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY WEST. SLOWLY LOWERING SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD LOWER THE RISK
OF FOG... EXCEPT PERHAP IN THE WRN CWA NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.
BASED ON LAST NIGHT`S LOWS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE... EXPECT LOWS
OF 58-63.

FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT: RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR SE WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT PERSISTS BUT IS CONFINED TO THE
FAR SRN AND SE CWA... WHERE PW VALUES WILL HOVER NEAR 1.4-1.5". THE
ONSHORE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW COULD DRAW SHALLOW SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS INLAND OVER THE FAR SE CWA. ISOLATED UPSLOPE-
SUPPORTED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WRN CWA AS WELL. IN
GENERAL HOWEVER... THE TRADITIONAL MODELS REMAIN TOO WET... SHOWING
PRECIP COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA... WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE WRN/SRN AND SE EDGES OF THE CWA
FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP
SLIGHTLY... INDICATING HIGHS OF 76-81. LOWS 56-61 WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WEST AND MOSTLY CLEAR EAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 224 PM THURSDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL US RIDGE NOSES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA...SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM DIVING
SEWD OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE REMNANT LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEDGE
SOUTHWESTWARD DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA. RESULTANT LOW PWATS AND A STABLE AIR COLUMN WILL SECURE
DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY: AMPLIFYING/DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
POLAR WESTERLIES WILL PICK UP THE LINGERING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND KICK IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...LIFTING UP
THE NC COAST AND THEN OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. LITTLE TO NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE...BUT A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOP
INVOF OF THIS TROUGH...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE NEXT FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES PROJECTED TO CLIMB 20 METERS ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 224 PM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: 40 TO 60 METER HEIGHT FALLS TRAVERSING
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE AMPLIFYING NORTHER STREAM TROUGH
ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN US WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING . WRT THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY...THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE
FASTER SOLUTION OF THE EC...WHICH HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. GIVEN THE FASTER TIMING...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AND GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...CONVECTIVE/RAIN CHANCES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE. WILL
LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT FROPA COULD END BEING A NON-
MEASURABLE/SPRINKLE EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. FASTER FROPA WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: LIKE CLOCKWORK...A STRONG +1030MB CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH... ANCHORED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER CONFLUENCE ZONE IN THE
WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WILL PROVIDE THE FIRST DAYS OF FALL(AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
BEGINS MONDAY SEPT 22 AT 10:29 PM EDT)WITH BONA FIDE FALL
CONDITIONS. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS 70
TO 75. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 816 PM THURSDAY...

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KINT...KGSO...AND KRDU FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT... BECOMING 5-10 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z FRI... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY... ALTHOUGH MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SAT MORNING AS
THE LIGHT ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN FOR MON/TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...SEC/HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 190017
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
817 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... AS IT SLIDES EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY... THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM THURSDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: QUIET AND DRY NIGHT FOR MOST. SURFACE MAP SHOWS A
WEAK MSLP PATTERN OVER NC WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WRN
PIEDMONT... HELPING TO FOCUS MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 5-6 THOUSAND FT
IN THIS AREA AND FOSTERING DEVELOPMENT OF VERY ISOLATED SHALLOW
SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS... GIVEN THIS
WEAK LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK TERRAIN
UPGLIDE... BUT WITH A CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT AT 775-750 MB AND
WARM/DRY/STABLE AIR ABOVE... EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO BE STUNTED BOTH
VERTICALLY AND IN COVERAGE... AS PW REMAINS BELOW NORMAL. THE LATEST
SEVERAL HRRR RUNS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED SHOWER
CHANCE IN THE WRN AND EXTREME SW CWA THROUGH THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADUALLY DISPERSING WITH TIME... STILL GREATER OVER THE WRN CWA
THAN IN THE EAST... SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY WEST. SLOWLY LOWERING SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD LOWER THE RISK
OF FOG... EXCEPT PERHAP IN THE WRN CWA NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.
BASED ON LAST NIGHT`S LOWS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE... EXPECT LOWS
OF 58-63.

FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT: RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR SE WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT PERSISTS BUT IS CONFINED TO THE
FAR SRN AND SE CWA... WHERE PW VALUES WILL HOVER NEAR 1.4-1.5". THE
ONSHORE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW COULD DRAW SHALLOW SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS INLAND OVER THE FAR SE CWA. ISOLATED UPSLOPE-
SUPPORTED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WRN CWA AS WELL. IN
GENERAL HOWEVER... THE TRADITIONAL MODELS REMAIN TOO WET... SHOWING
PRECIP COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA... WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE WRN/SRN AND SE EDGES OF THE CWA
FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP
SLIGHTLY... INDICATING HIGHS OF 76-81. LOWS 56-61 WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WEST AND MOSTLY CLEAR EAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 224 PM THURSDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL US RIDGE NOSES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA...SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM DIVING
SEWD OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE REMNANT LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEDGE
SOUTHWESTWARD DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA. RESULTANT LOW PWATS AND A STABLE AIR COLUMN WILL SECURE
DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY: AMPLIFYING/DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
POLAR WESTERLIES WILL PICK UP THE LINGERING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND KICK IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...LIFTING UP
THE NC COAST AND THEN OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. LITTLE TO NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE...BUT A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOP
INVOF OF THIS TROUGH...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE NEXT FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES PROJECTED TO CLIMB 20 METERS ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 224 PM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: 40 TO 60 METER HEIGHT FALLS TRAVERSING
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE AMPLIFYING NORTHER STREAM TROUGH
ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN US WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING . WRT THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY...THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE
FASTER SOLUTION OF THE EC...WHICH HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. GIVEN THE FASTER TIMING...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AND GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...CONVECTIVE/RAIN CHANCES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE. WILL
LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT FROPA COULD END BEING A NON-
MEASURABLE/SPRINKLE EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. FASTER FROPA WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: LIKE CLOCKWORK...A STRONG +1030MB CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH... ANCHORED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER CONFLUENCE ZONE IN THE
WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WILL PROVIDE THE FIRST DAYS OF FALL(AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
BEGINS MONDAY SEPT 22 AT 10:29 PM EDT)WITH BONA FIDE FALL
CONDITIONS. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS 70
TO 75. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 816 PM THURSDAY...

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT KINT...KGSO...AND KRDU FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT... BECOMING 5-10 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z FRI... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY... ALTHOUGH MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SAT MORNING AS
THE LIGHT ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN FOR MON/TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...SEC/HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 181824
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
224 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... AS IT SLIDES EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY... THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM THURSDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: QUIET AND DRY NIGHT FOR MOST. SURFACE MAP SHOWS A
WEAK MSLP PATTERN OVER NC WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WRN
PIEDMONT... HELPING TO FOCUS MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 5-6 THOUSAND FT
IN THIS AREA AND FOSTERING DEVELOPMENT OF VERY ISOLATED SHALLOW
SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS... GIVEN THIS
WEAK LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK TERRAIN
UPGLIDE... BUT WITH A CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT AT 775-750 MB AND
WARM/DRY/STABLE AIR ABOVE... EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO BE STUNTED BOTH
VERTICALLY AND IN COVERAGE... AS PW REMAINS BELOW NORMAL. THE LATEST
SEVERAL HRRR RUNS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED SHOWER
CHANCE IN THE WRN AND EXTREME SW CWA THROUGH THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADUALLY DISPERSING WITH TIME... STILL GREATER OVER THE WRN CWA
THAN IN THE EAST... SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY WEST. SLOWLY LOWERING SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD LOWER THE RISK
OF FOG... EXCEPT PERHAP IN THE WRN CWA NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.
BASED ON LAST NIGHT`S LOWS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE... EXPECT LOWS
OF 58-63.

FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT: RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR SE WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT PERSISTS BUT IS CONFINED TO THE
FAR SRN AND SE CWA... WHERE PW VALUES WILL HOVER NEAR 1.4-1.5". THE
ONSHORE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW COULD DRAW SHALLOW SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS INLAND OVER THE FAR SE CWA. ISOLATED UPSLOPE-
SUPPORTED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WRN CWA AS WELL. IN
GENERAL HOWEVER... THE TRADITIONAL MODELS REMAIN TOO WET... SHOWING
PRECIP COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA... WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE WRN/SRN AND SE EDGES OF THE CWA
FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP
SLIGHTLY... INDICATING HIGHS OF 76-81. LOWS 56-61 WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WEST AND MOSTLY CLEAR EAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 224 PM THURSDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL US RIDGE NOSES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA...SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM DIVING
SEWD OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE REMNANT LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEDGE
SOUTHWESTWARD DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA. RESULTANT LOW PWATS AND A STABLE AIR COLUMN WILL SECURE
DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY: AMPLIFYING/DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
POLAR WESTERLIES WILL PICK UP THE LINGERING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND KICK IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...LIFTING UP
THE NC COAST AND THEN OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. LITTLE TO NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE...BUT A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOP
INVOF OF THIS TROUGH...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE NEXT FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES PROJECTED TO CLIMB 20 METERS ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 224 PM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: 40 TO 60 METER HEIGHT FALLS TRAVERSING
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE AMPLIFYING NORTHER STREAM TROUGH
ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN US WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING . WRT THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY...THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE
FASTER SOLUTION OF THE EC...WHICH HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. GIVEN THE FASTER TIMING...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AND GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...CONVECTIVE/RAIN CHANCES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE. WILL
LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT FROPA COULD END BEING A NON-
MEASURABLE/SPRINKLE EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. FASTER FROPA WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: LIKE CLOCKWORK...A STRONG +1030MB CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH... ANCHORED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER CONFLUENCE ZONE IN THE
WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WILL PROVIDE THE FIRST DAYS OF FALL(AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
BEGINS MONDAY SEPT 22 AT 10:29 PM EDT)WITH BONA FIDE FALL
CONDITIONS. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS 70
TO 75. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
EARLIER MVFR CIGS AT INT/GSO HAVE MIXED OUT TO SCATTERED... ALTHOUGH
THESE MAY STILL GO BROKEN BRIEFLY PRIOR TO 20Z. OTHERWISE... ANY
CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING SHOULD BE BASED ABOVE 3 000
FT AGL... MORE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN AT INT/GSO WITH LESS COVERAGE AT
RDU/RWI/FAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE NE WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AT SPEEDS MAINLY UNDER 6 KTS... THEN SHOULD
INCREASE TO 7-10 KTS FROM THE ENE AFTER 14Z FRI.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z FRI... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY... ALTHOUGH MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SAT MORNING AS
THE LIGHT ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN FOR MON/TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 181824
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
224 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... AS IT SLIDES EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY... THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM THURSDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: QUIET AND DRY NIGHT FOR MOST. SURFACE MAP SHOWS A
WEAK MSLP PATTERN OVER NC WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WRN
PIEDMONT... HELPING TO FOCUS MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 5-6 THOUSAND FT
IN THIS AREA AND FOSTERING DEVELOPMENT OF VERY ISOLATED SHALLOW
SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS... GIVEN THIS
WEAK LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK TERRAIN
UPGLIDE... BUT WITH A CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT AT 775-750 MB AND
WARM/DRY/STABLE AIR ABOVE... EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO BE STUNTED BOTH
VERTICALLY AND IN COVERAGE... AS PW REMAINS BELOW NORMAL. THE LATEST
SEVERAL HRRR RUNS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED SHOWER
CHANCE IN THE WRN AND EXTREME SW CWA THROUGH THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADUALLY DISPERSING WITH TIME... STILL GREATER OVER THE WRN CWA
THAN IN THE EAST... SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY WEST. SLOWLY LOWERING SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD LOWER THE RISK
OF FOG... EXCEPT PERHAP IN THE WRN CWA NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.
BASED ON LAST NIGHT`S LOWS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE... EXPECT LOWS
OF 58-63.

FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT: RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR SE WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT PERSISTS BUT IS CONFINED TO THE
FAR SRN AND SE CWA... WHERE PW VALUES WILL HOVER NEAR 1.4-1.5". THE
ONSHORE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW COULD DRAW SHALLOW SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS INLAND OVER THE FAR SE CWA. ISOLATED UPSLOPE-
SUPPORTED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WRN CWA AS WELL. IN
GENERAL HOWEVER... THE TRADITIONAL MODELS REMAIN TOO WET... SHOWING
PRECIP COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA... WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE WRN/SRN AND SE EDGES OF THE CWA
FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP
SLIGHTLY... INDICATING HIGHS OF 76-81. LOWS 56-61 WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WEST AND MOSTLY CLEAR EAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 224 PM THURSDAY...

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY...AS AN EXTENSION OF THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL US RIDGE NOSES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA...SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM DIVING
SEWD OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE REMNANT LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. AT THE SURFACE...DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEDGE
SOUTHWESTWARD DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
AND GEORGIA. RESULTANT LOW PWATS AND A STABLE AIR COLUMN WILL SECURE
DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY: AMPLIFYING/DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
POLAR WESTERLIES WILL PICK UP THE LINGERING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND KICK IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...LIFTING UP
THE NC COAST AND THEN OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. LITTLE TO NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE...BUT A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OWING TO THE APPROACH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOP
INVOF OF THIS TROUGH...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE NEXT FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES PROJECTED TO CLIMB 20 METERS ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 224 PM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: 40 TO 60 METER HEIGHT FALLS TRAVERSING
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE AMPLIFYING NORTHER STREAM TROUGH
ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN US WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING . WRT THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY...THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE
FASTER SOLUTION OF THE EC...WHICH HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. GIVEN THE FASTER TIMING...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING AND GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...CONVECTIVE/RAIN CHANCES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE. WILL
LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT FROPA COULD END BEING A NON-
MEASURABLE/SPRINKLE EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. FASTER FROPA WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: LIKE CLOCKWORK...A STRONG +1030MB CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH... ANCHORED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER CONFLUENCE ZONE IN THE
WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WILL PROVIDE THE FIRST DAYS OF FALL(AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
BEGINS MONDAY SEPT 22 AT 10:29 PM EDT)WITH BONA FIDE FALL
CONDITIONS. DRY WITH TEMPERATURES 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS 70
TO 75. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
EARLIER MVFR CIGS AT INT/GSO HAVE MIXED OUT TO SCATTERED... ALTHOUGH
THESE MAY STILL GO BROKEN BRIEFLY PRIOR TO 20Z. OTHERWISE... ANY
CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING SHOULD BE BASED ABOVE 3 000
FT AGL... MORE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN AT INT/GSO WITH LESS COVERAGE AT
RDU/RWI/FAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE NE WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AT SPEEDS MAINLY UNDER 6 KTS... THEN SHOULD
INCREASE TO 7-10 KTS FROM THE ENE AFTER 14Z FRI.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z FRI... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY... ALTHOUGH MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SAT MORNING AS
THE LIGHT ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN FOR MON/TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 181821
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
220 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... AS IT SLIDES EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY... THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM THURSDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: QUIET AND DRY NIGHT FOR MOST. SURFACE MAP SHOWS A
WEAK MSLP PATTERN OVER NC WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WRN
PIEDMONT... HELPING TO FOCUS MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 5-6 THOUSAND FT
IN THIS AREA AND FOSTERING DEVELOPMENT OF VERY ISOLATED SHALLOW
SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS... GIVEN THIS
WEAK LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK TERRAIN
UPGLIDE... BUT WITH A CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT AT 775-750 MB AND
WARM/DRY/STABLE AIR ABOVE... EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO BE STUNTED BOTH
VERTICALLY AND IN COVERAGE... AS PW REMAINS BELOW NORMAL. THE LATEST
SEVERAL HRRR RUNS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED SHOWER
CHANCE IN THE WRN AND EXTREME SW CWA THROUGH THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADUALLY DISPERSING WITH TIME... STILL GREATER OVER THE WRN CWA
THAN IN THE EAST... SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY WEST. SLOWLY LOWERING SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD LOWER THE RISK
OF FOG... EXCEPT PERHAP IN THE WRN CWA NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.
BASED ON LAST NIGHT`S LOWS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE... EXPECT LOWS
OF 58-63.

FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT: RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR SE WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT PERSISTS BUT IS CONFINED TO THE
FAR SRN AND SE CWA... WHERE PW VALUES WILL HOVER NEAR 1.4-1.5". THE
ONSHORE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW COULD DRAW SHALLOW SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS INLAND OVER THE FAR SE CWA. ISOLATED UPSLOPE-
SUPPORTED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WRN CWA AS WELL. IN
GENERAL HOWEVER... THE TRADITIONAL MODELS REMAIN TOO WET... SHOWING
PRECIP COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA... WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE WRN/SRN AND SE EDGES OF THE CWA
FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP
SLIGHTLY... INDICATING HIGHS OF 76-81. LOWS 56-61 WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WEST AND MOSTLY CLEAR EAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM / /...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

TO BE UPDATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

A PORTION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL
BE LEFT BEHIND AND SUPPORT WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE
THE SE US COAST THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE OTHERWISE DEAMPLIFYING/LIFTING
TROUGH WILL YIELD TO RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS...AS A
FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE RIDGE NOSES EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT AND AMPLIFICATION OF A
WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL THEN RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE EAST-CENTRAL US THIS
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WESTERN RIDGE...IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW
ALOFT...WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

BENEATH THE CONTINUED RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT SAT...A CANADIAN SFC HIGH
(AROUND 1030 MB) WILL BUILD FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND RIDGE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE YIELDING - AMIDST
FALLING HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED REDEVELOPING TROUGH
ALOFT HEADED FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL US - TO APPALACHIAN-LEE SFC TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT SUN...AND A PASSING COLD FRONT MON. ANOTHER STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH WILL EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT...WHICH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL CLEAR ALL BUT PERHAPS SOUTHERN FL BY MID NEXT
WEEK.

WITH THE BRUNT OF THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD
HIGH LIKELY TO HOLD OVER THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
STATES THIS WEEKEND...CENTRAL NC TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO WARM TO ABOVE
AVG...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S - WARMEST SUNDAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT
LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ATTENDING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL WAVE IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME TO HOLD ALONG COASTAL AREAS...WITH MORE OF A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMPONENT OVER CENTRAL NC...INTO THE OFFSHORE
LOW/FRONTAL ZONE.

FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING HAS SPED FOR MON...SUCH THAT A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY DRIFT INTO THE NW PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT...AND LEAVE MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA IN THE WARM SECTOR
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH EARLIER/UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL FRONTAL
TIMING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE
RELATIVELY LOW...THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER...AS GULF MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE LIMITED. COOLER TUE-WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S IN
THE POST-FRONTAL CANADIAN HIGH...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S-50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
EARLIER MVFR CIGS AT INT/GSO HAVE MIXED OUT TO SCATTERED... ALTHOUGH
THESE MAY STILL GO BROKEN BRIEFLY PRIOR TO 20Z. OTHERWISE... ANY
CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING SHOULD BE BASED ABOVE 3 000
FT AGL... MORE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN AT INT/GSO WITH LESS COVERAGE AT
RDU/RWI/FAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE NE WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AT SPEEDS MAINLY UNDER 6 KTS... THEN SHOULD
INCREASE TO 7-10 KTS FROM THE ENE AFTER 14Z FRI.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z FRI... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY... ALTHOUGH MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SAT MORNING AS
THE LIGHT ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN FOR MON/TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 181821
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
220 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... AS IT SLIDES EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY... THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM THURSDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: QUIET AND DRY NIGHT FOR MOST. SURFACE MAP SHOWS A
WEAK MSLP PATTERN OVER NC WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WRN
PIEDMONT... HELPING TO FOCUS MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 5-6 THOUSAND FT
IN THIS AREA AND FOSTERING DEVELOPMENT OF VERY ISOLATED SHALLOW
SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS... GIVEN THIS
WEAK LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK TERRAIN
UPGLIDE... BUT WITH A CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT AT 775-750 MB AND
WARM/DRY/STABLE AIR ABOVE... EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO BE STUNTED BOTH
VERTICALLY AND IN COVERAGE... AS PW REMAINS BELOW NORMAL. THE LATEST
SEVERAL HRRR RUNS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED SHOWER
CHANCE IN THE WRN AND EXTREME SW CWA THROUGH THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADUALLY DISPERSING WITH TIME... STILL GREATER OVER THE WRN CWA
THAN IN THE EAST... SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY WEST. SLOWLY LOWERING SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD LOWER THE RISK
OF FOG... EXCEPT PERHAP IN THE WRN CWA NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.
BASED ON LAST NIGHT`S LOWS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE... EXPECT LOWS
OF 58-63.

FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT: RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR SE WITH RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT PERSISTS BUT IS CONFINED TO THE
FAR SRN AND SE CWA... WHERE PW VALUES WILL HOVER NEAR 1.4-1.5". THE
ONSHORE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW COULD DRAW SHALLOW SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS INLAND OVER THE FAR SE CWA. ISOLATED UPSLOPE-
SUPPORTED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WRN CWA AS WELL. IN
GENERAL HOWEVER... THE TRADITIONAL MODELS REMAIN TOO WET... SHOWING
PRECIP COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA... WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE WRN/SRN AND SE EDGES OF THE CWA
FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP
SLIGHTLY... INDICATING HIGHS OF 76-81. LOWS 56-61 WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WEST AND MOSTLY CLEAR EAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM / /...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

TO BE UPDATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

A PORTION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL
BE LEFT BEHIND AND SUPPORT WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE
THE SE US COAST THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE OTHERWISE DEAMPLIFYING/LIFTING
TROUGH WILL YIELD TO RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS...AS A
FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE RIDGE NOSES EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT AND AMPLIFICATION OF A
WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL THEN RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE EAST-CENTRAL US THIS
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WESTERN RIDGE...IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW
ALOFT...WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

BENEATH THE CONTINUED RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT SAT...A CANADIAN SFC HIGH
(AROUND 1030 MB) WILL BUILD FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND RIDGE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE YIELDING - AMIDST
FALLING HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED REDEVELOPING TROUGH
ALOFT HEADED FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL US - TO APPALACHIAN-LEE SFC TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT SUN...AND A PASSING COLD FRONT MON. ANOTHER STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH WILL EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT...WHICH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL CLEAR ALL BUT PERHAPS SOUTHERN FL BY MID NEXT
WEEK.

WITH THE BRUNT OF THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD
HIGH LIKELY TO HOLD OVER THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
STATES THIS WEEKEND...CENTRAL NC TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO WARM TO ABOVE
AVG...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S - WARMEST SUNDAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT
LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ATTENDING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL WAVE IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME TO HOLD ALONG COASTAL AREAS...WITH MORE OF A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMPONENT OVER CENTRAL NC...INTO THE OFFSHORE
LOW/FRONTAL ZONE.

FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING HAS SPED FOR MON...SUCH THAT A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY DRIFT INTO THE NW PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT...AND LEAVE MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA IN THE WARM SECTOR
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH EARLIER/UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL FRONTAL
TIMING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE
RELATIVELY LOW...THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER...AS GULF MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE LIMITED. COOLER TUE-WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S IN
THE POST-FRONTAL CANADIAN HIGH...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S-50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
EARLIER MVFR CIGS AT INT/GSO HAVE MIXED OUT TO SCATTERED... ALTHOUGH
THESE MAY STILL GO BROKEN BRIEFLY PRIOR TO 20Z. OTHERWISE... ANY
CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING SHOULD BE BASED ABOVE 3 000
FT AGL... MORE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN AT INT/GSO WITH LESS COVERAGE AT
RDU/RWI/FAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE NE WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AT SPEEDS MAINLY UNDER 6 KTS... THEN SHOULD
INCREASE TO 7-10 KTS FROM THE ENE AFTER 14Z FRI.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z FRI... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY... ALTHOUGH MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SAT MORNING AS
THE LIGHT ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN FOR MON/TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 181747
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... AS IT SLIDES EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY... THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM THURSDAY...

REST OF TODAY: STILL APPEARS MOSTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. THIS
MORNING`S AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
WRN CWA... WHERE THE LOW LEVEL TERRAIN UPGLIDE IS HIGHER AND WHERE
LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE IS TAKING PLACE ALONG A WEAK INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH. THE LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON ISOLATED SHALLOW SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS EARLY-MID AFTERNOON... AND SUBSEQUENTLY DRIFTING EASTWARD
INTO THE FAR WRN PIEDMONT THROUGH EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE
12Z GSO SOUNDING REVEALS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE BELOW 775 MB CAPPED BY
THE INVERSION ALOFT... SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. WILL
RETAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
THE FAR WRN AND EXTREME SW CWA. OTHERWISE... THE WARM CAP ALOFT AND
DRY MID LEVELS ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL PW WILL MAKE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE REST OF THE CWA... WITH FLAT CUMULUS MAXIMIZED
IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PACE OF TEMP RISE SO FAR THIS MORNING
SUPPORTS HIGHS OF 77-81. -GIH

TONIGHT...AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...
POOLING ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...MAY MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
CAUSE THE FORMATION OF FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS NEAR 60-LOWER 60S. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

DRY AIR RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO AND EXTEND
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS PERIOD. THE DRIEST AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE NE
PIEDMONT AND MOST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
MAY CAUSE MOISTURE TO BANK UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN
NC WHICH MAY SPILL INTO OUR FAR WESTERN  COUNTIES. THE MOISTURE
APPEARS TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY PLUS LIFT IS
MINIMAL THIS PERIOD.

MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. MIN
TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

A PORTION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL
BE LEFT BEHIND AND SUPPORT WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE
THE SE US COAST THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE OTHERWISE DEAMPLIFYING/LIFTING
TROUGH WILL YIELD TO RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS...AS A
FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE RIDGE NOSES EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT AND AMPLIFICATION OF A
WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL THEN RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE EAST-CENTRAL US THIS
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WESTERN RIDGE...IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW
ALOFT...WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

BENEATH THE CONTINUED RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT SAT...A CANADIAN SFC HIGH
(AROUND 1030 MB) WILL BUILD FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND RIDGE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE YIELDING - AMIDST
FALLING HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED REDEVELOPING TROUGH
ALOFT HEADED FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL US - TO APPALACHIAN-LEE SFC TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT SUN...AND A PASSING COLD FRONT MON. ANOTHER STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH WILL EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT...WHICH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL CLEAR ALL BUT PERHAPS SOUTHERN FL BY MID NEXT
WEEK.

WITH THE BRUNT OF THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD
HIGH LIKELY TO HOLD OVER THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
STATES THIS WEEKEND...CENTRAL NC TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO WARM TO ABOVE
AVG...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S - WARMEST SUNDAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT
LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ATTENDING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL WAVE IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME TO HOLD ALONG COASTAL AREAS...WITH MORE OF A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMPONENT OVER CENTRAL NC...INTO THE OFFSHORE
LOW/FRONTAL ZONE.

FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING HAS SPED FOR MON...SUCH THAT A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY DRIFT INTO THE NW PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT...AND LEAVE MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA IN THE WARM SECTOR
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH EARLIER/UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL FRONTAL
TIMING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE
RELATIVELY LOW...THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER...AS GULF MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE LIMITED. COOLER TUE-WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S IN
THE POST-FRONTAL CANADIAN HIGH...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S-50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
EARLIER MVFR CIGS AT INT/GSO HAVE MIXED OUT TO SCATTERED... ALTHOUGH
THESE MAY STILL GO BROKEN BRIEFLY PRIOR TO 20Z. OTHERWISE... ANY
CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING SHOULD BE BASED ABOVE 3 000
FT AGL... MORE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN AT INT/GSO WITH LESS COVERAGE AT
RDU/RWI/FAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE NE WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AT SPEEDS MAINLY UNDER 6 KTS... THEN SHOULD
INCREASE TO 7-10 KTS FROM THE ENE AFTER 14Z FRI.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z FRI... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY... ALTHOUGH MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY SAT MORNING AS
THE LIGHT ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS
POSSIBLE LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN FOR MON/TUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 181438
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1035 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... AS IT SLIDES EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY... THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM THURSDAY...

REST OF TODAY: STILL APPEARS MOSTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. THIS
MORNING`S AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
WRN CWA... WHERE THE LOW LEVEL TERRAIN UPGLIDE IS HIGHER AND WHERE
LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE IS TAKING PLACE ALONG A WEAK INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH. THE LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON ISOLATED SHALLOW SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS EARLY-MID AFTERNOON... AND SUBSEQUENTLY DRIFTING EASTWARD
INTO THE FAR WRN PIEDMONT THROUGH EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE
12Z GSO SOUNDING REVEALS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE BELOW 775 MB CAPPED BY
THE INVERSION ALOFT... SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. WILL
RETAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
THE FAR WRN AND EXTREME SW CWA. OTHERWISE... THE WARM CAP ALOFT AND
DRY MID LEVELS ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL PW WILL MAKE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE REST OF THE CWA... WITH FLAT CUMULUS MAXIMIZED
IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PACE OF TEMP RISE SO FAR THIS MORNING
SUPPORTS HIGHS OF 77-81. -GIH

TONIGHT...AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...
POOLING ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...MAY MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
CAUSE THE FORMATION OF FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS NEAR 60-LOWER 60S. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

DRY AIR RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO AND EXTEND
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS PERIOD. THE DRIEST AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE NE
PIEDMONT AND MOST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
MAY CAUSE MOISTURE TO BANK UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN
NC WHICH MAY SPILL INTO OUR FAR WESTERN  COUNTIES. THE MOISTURE
APPEARS TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY PLUS LIFT IS
MINIMAL THIS PERIOD.

MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. MIN
TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

A PORTION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL
BE LEFT BEHIND AND SUPPORT WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE
THE SE US COAST THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE OTHERWISE DEAMPLIFYING/LIFTING
TROUGH WILL YIELD TO RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS...AS A
FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE RIDGE NOSES EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT AND AMPLIFICATION OF A
WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL THEN RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE EAST-CENTRAL US THIS
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WESTERN RIDGE...IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW
ALOFT...WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

BENEATH THE CONTINUED RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT SAT...A CANADIAN SFC HIGH
(AROUND 1030 MB) WILL BUILD FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND RIDGE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE YIELDING - AMIDST
FALLING HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED REDEVELOPING TROUGH
ALOFT HEADED FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL US - TO APPALACHIAN-LEE SFC TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT SUN...AND A PASSING COLD FRONT MON. ANOTHER STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH WILL EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT...WHICH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL CLEAR ALL BUT PERHAPS SOUTHERN FL BY MID NEXT
WEEK.

WITH THE BRUNT OF THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD
HIGH LIKELY TO HOLD OVER THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
STATES THIS WEEKEND...CENTRAL NC TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO WARM TO ABOVE
AVG...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S - WARMEST SUNDAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT
LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ATTENDING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL WAVE IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME TO HOLD ALONG COASTAL AREAS...WITH MORE OF A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMPONENT OVER CENTRAL NC...INTO THE OFFSHORE
LOW/FRONTAL ZONE.

FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING HAS SPED FOR MON...SUCH THAT A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY DRIFT INTO THE NW PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT...AND LEAVE MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA IN THE WARM SECTOR
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH EARLIER/UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL FRONTAL
TIMING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE
RELATIVELY LOW...THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER...AS GULF MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE LIMITED. COOLER TUE-WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S IN
THE POST-FRONTAL CANADIAN HIGH...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S-50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM THURSDAY...

AVIATION CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING VARY FROM VFR IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS TO MVFR/IFR DUE TO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS CAUSED BY FOG IN THE PIEDMONT. THE AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR MOISTURE POOLING. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH
HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE...WILL OMIT FROM MENTIONING IN THE TRIAD TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY
BET3500-5000FT.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...MAY SEE POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE PROBABILITY OF
THIS OCCURRING AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE IS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT SO
WILL OMIT FROM THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST
BRIEF INSTANCES OF EARLY MORNING FOG. AN APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 181438
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1035 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL EXTEND DOWN THROUGH VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... AS IT SLIDES EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY... THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM THURSDAY...

REST OF TODAY: STILL APPEARS MOSTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. THIS
MORNING`S AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
WRN CWA... WHERE THE LOW LEVEL TERRAIN UPGLIDE IS HIGHER AND WHERE
LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE IS TAKING PLACE ALONG A WEAK INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH. THE LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON ISOLATED SHALLOW SHOWERS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS EARLY-MID AFTERNOON... AND SUBSEQUENTLY DRIFTING EASTWARD
INTO THE FAR WRN PIEDMONT THROUGH EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE
12Z GSO SOUNDING REVEALS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE BELOW 775 MB CAPPED BY
THE INVERSION ALOFT... SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. WILL
RETAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
THE FAR WRN AND EXTREME SW CWA. OTHERWISE... THE WARM CAP ALOFT AND
DRY MID LEVELS ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL PW WILL MAKE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE REST OF THE CWA... WITH FLAT CUMULUS MAXIMIZED
IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PACE OF TEMP RISE SO FAR THIS MORNING
SUPPORTS HIGHS OF 77-81. -GIH

TONIGHT...AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...
POOLING ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...MAY MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
CAUSE THE FORMATION OF FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS... ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS NEAR 60-LOWER 60S. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

DRY AIR RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO AND EXTEND
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS PERIOD. THE DRIEST AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE NE
PIEDMONT AND MOST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
MAY CAUSE MOISTURE TO BANK UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN
NC WHICH MAY SPILL INTO OUR FAR WESTERN  COUNTIES. THE MOISTURE
APPEARS TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY PLUS LIFT IS
MINIMAL THIS PERIOD.

MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. MIN
TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

A PORTION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL
BE LEFT BEHIND AND SUPPORT WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE
THE SE US COAST THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE OTHERWISE DEAMPLIFYING/LIFTING
TROUGH WILL YIELD TO RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS...AS A
FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE RIDGE NOSES EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT AND AMPLIFICATION OF A
WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL THEN RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE EAST-CENTRAL US THIS
WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WESTERN RIDGE...IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW
ALOFT...WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

BENEATH THE CONTINUED RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT SAT...A CANADIAN SFC HIGH
(AROUND 1030 MB) WILL BUILD FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND RIDGE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE YIELDING - AMIDST
FALLING HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED REDEVELOPING TROUGH
ALOFT HEADED FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL US - TO APPALACHIAN-LEE SFC TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT SUN...AND A PASSING COLD FRONT MON. ANOTHER STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH WILL EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT...WHICH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL CLEAR ALL BUT PERHAPS SOUTHERN FL BY MID NEXT
WEEK.

WITH THE BRUNT OF THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD
HIGH LIKELY TO HOLD OVER THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
STATES THIS WEEKEND...CENTRAL NC TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO WARM TO ABOVE
AVG...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S - WARMEST SUNDAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT
LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ATTENDING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL WAVE IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME TO HOLD ALONG COASTAL AREAS...WITH MORE OF A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMPONENT OVER CENTRAL NC...INTO THE OFFSHORE
LOW/FRONTAL ZONE.

FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING HAS SPED FOR MON...SUCH THAT A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY DRIFT INTO THE NW PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT...AND LEAVE MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA IN THE WARM SECTOR
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH EARLIER/UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL FRONTAL
TIMING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE
RELATIVELY LOW...THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER...AS GULF MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE LIMITED. COOLER TUE-WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S IN
THE POST-FRONTAL CANADIAN HIGH...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S-50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM THURSDAY...

AVIATION CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING VARY FROM VFR IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS TO MVFR/IFR DUE TO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS CAUSED BY FOG IN THE PIEDMONT. THE AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR MOISTURE POOLING. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH
HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE...WILL OMIT FROM MENTIONING IN THE TRIAD TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY
BET3500-5000FT.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...MAY SEE POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE PROBABILITY OF
THIS OCCURRING AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE IS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT SO
WILL OMIT FROM THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST
BRIEF INSTANCES OF EARLY MORNING FOG. AN APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 181127
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTH-TO-SOUTH OVER
THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT TODAY THEN DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY.
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL
DRIFT EAST AND EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

TODAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK MID LEVEL S/W EXITING THE
TN VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL PROGRESS EAST AND
CROSS CENTRAL NC LATER THIS MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE
MANNER OF WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME. SFC
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS FEATURE IN VICINITY OF THE
YADKIN RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WAS
OCCURRING IN VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH AS SFC DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. THIS POOLING HAS RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF LOW
STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.
THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY EXPAND EAST...POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST
AS THE TRIANGLE AREA BY DAYBREAK. LATER THIS MORNING...THE APPROACH
OF THE MID LEVEL S/W MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. DUE TO
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK LIFT...BELIEVE THAT COVERAGE WILL BE
NO WORSE THAN 20 PERCENT.

EARLY MORNING CLOUDINESS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ANTICIPATED EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPEPR 70S -LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT...AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...POOLING ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...MAY MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY CAUSE THE FORMATION OF FOG AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS NEAR 60-LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

DRY AIR RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO AND EXTEND
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS PERIOD. THE DRIEST AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE NE
PIEDMONT AND MOST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
MAY CAUSE MOISTURE TO BANK UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN
NC WHICH MAY SPILL INTO OUR FAR WESTERN  COUNTIES. THE MOISTURE
APPEARS TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY PLUS LIFT IS
MINIMAL THIS PERIOD.

MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. MIN
TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

A PORTION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL
BE LEFT BEHIND AND SUPPORT WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE
THE SE US COAST THIS WKND...BUT THE OTHERWISE DEAMPLIFYING/LIFTING
TROUGH WILL YIELD TO RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS...AS A
FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE RIDGE NOSES EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT AND AMPLIFICATION OF A
WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL THEN RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE EAST-CENTRAL US THIS
WKND-EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WESTERN RIDGE...IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW
ALOFT...WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

BENEATH THE CONTINUED RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT SAT...A CANADIAN SFC HIGH
(AROUND 1030 MB) WILL BUILD FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND RIDGE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE YIELDING - AMIDST
FALLING HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED REDEVELOPING TROUGH
ALOFT HEADED FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL US - TO APPALACHIAN-LEE SFC TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT SUN...AND A PASSING COLD FRONT MON. ANOTHER STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH WILL EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT...WHICH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL CLEAR ALL BUT PERHAPS SOUTHERN FL BY MID NEXT
WEEK.

WITH THE BRUNT OF THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD
HIGH LIKELY TO HOLD OVER THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
STATES THIS WKND...CENTRAL NC TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO WARM TO ABOVE
AVG...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S - WARMEST SUNDAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT
LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ATTENDING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL WAVE IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME TO HOLD ALONG COASTAL AREAS...WITH MORE OF A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMPONENT OVER CENTRAL NC...INTO THE OFFSHORE
LOW/FRONTAL ZONE.

FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING HAS SPED FOR MON...SUCH THAT A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY DRIFT INTO THE NW PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT...AND LEAVE MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA IN THE WARM SECTOR
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH EARLIER/UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL FRONTAL
TIMING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE
RELATIVELY LOW...THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER...AS GULF MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE LIMITED. COOLER TUE-WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S IN
THE POST-FRONTAL CANADIAN HIGH...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S-50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM THURSDAY...

AVIATION CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING VARY FROM VFR IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS TO MVFR/IFR DUE TO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS CAUSED BY FOG IN THE PIEDMONT. THE AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR MOISTURE POOLING. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH
HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE...WILL OMIT FROM MENTIONING IN THE TRIAD TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY
BET3500-5000FT.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...MAY SEE POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE PROBABILITY OF
THIS OCCURRING AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE IS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT SO
WILL OMIT FROM THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST
BRIEF INSTANCES OF EARLY MORNING FOG. AN APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 181127
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTH-TO-SOUTH OVER
THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT TODAY THEN DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY.
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL
DRIFT EAST AND EXTEND INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

TODAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK MID LEVEL S/W EXITING THE
TN VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL PROGRESS EAST AND
CROSS CENTRAL NC LATER THIS MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE
MANNER OF WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME. SFC
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS FEATURE IN VICINITY OF THE
YADKIN RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WAS
OCCURRING IN VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH AS SFC DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE
LOW-MID 60S. THIS POOLING HAS RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF LOW
STRATUS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.
THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG MAY EXPAND EAST...POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST
AS THE TRIANGLE AREA BY DAYBREAK. LATER THIS MORNING...THE APPROACH
OF THE MID LEVEL S/W MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. DUE TO
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK LIFT...BELIEVE THAT COVERAGE WILL BE
NO WORSE THAN 20 PERCENT.

EARLY MORNING CLOUDINESS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS ANTICIPATED EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPEPR 70S -LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT...AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...POOLING ALONG THE SFC TROUGH...MAY MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY CAUSE THE FORMATION OF FOG AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS NEAR 60-LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...

DRY AIR RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO AND EXTEND
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS PERIOD. THE DRIEST AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE NE
PIEDMONT AND MOST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
MAY CAUSE MOISTURE TO BANK UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN
NC WHICH MAY SPILL INTO OUR FAR WESTERN  COUNTIES. THE MOISTURE
APPEARS TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY PLUS LIFT IS
MINIMAL THIS PERIOD.

MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. MIN
TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...

A PORTION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL
BE LEFT BEHIND AND SUPPORT WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE
THE SE US COAST THIS WKND...BUT THE OTHERWISE DEAMPLIFYING/LIFTING
TROUGH WILL YIELD TO RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER THE CAROLINAS...AS A
FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE RIDGE NOSES EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT AND AMPLIFICATION OF A
WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL THEN RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE EAST-CENTRAL US THIS
WKND-EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WESTERN RIDGE...IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW
ALOFT...WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

BENEATH THE CONTINUED RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT SAT...A CANADIAN SFC HIGH
(AROUND 1030 MB) WILL BUILD FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND RIDGE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE YIELDING - AMIDST
FALLING HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED REDEVELOPING TROUGH
ALOFT HEADED FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL US - TO APPALACHIAN-LEE SFC TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT SUN...AND A PASSING COLD FRONT MON. ANOTHER STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH WILL EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT...WHICH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WILL CLEAR ALL BUT PERHAPS SOUTHERN FL BY MID NEXT
WEEK.

WITH THE BRUNT OF THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD
HIGH LIKELY TO HOLD OVER THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
STATES THIS WKND...CENTRAL NC TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO WARM TO ABOVE
AVG...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S - WARMEST SUNDAY. ANY SIGNIFICANT
LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ATTENDING THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL WAVE IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME TO HOLD ALONG COASTAL AREAS...WITH MORE OF A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COMPONENT OVER CENTRAL NC...INTO THE OFFSHORE
LOW/FRONTAL ZONE.

FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING HAS SPED FOR MON...SUCH THAT A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY DRIFT INTO THE NW PIEDMONT SUN
NIGHT...AND LEAVE MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWFA IN THE WARM SECTOR
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH EARLIER/UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL FRONTAL
TIMING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE
RELATIVELY LOW...THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER...AS GULF MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE LIMITED. COOLER TUE-WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S IN
THE POST-FRONTAL CANADIAN HIGH...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S-50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM THURSDAY...

AVIATION CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING VARY FROM VFR IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS TO MVFR/IFR DUE TO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS CAUSED BY FOG IN THE PIEDMONT. THE AREAS OF FOG AND
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR MOISTURE POOLING. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH
HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO EXPECTED SPARSE
COVERAGE...WILL OMIT FROM MENTIONING IN THE TRIAD TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLOUD BASES GENERALLY
BET3500-5000FT.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...MAY SEE POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE PROBABILITY OF
THIS OCCURRING AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE IS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT SO
WILL OMIT FROM THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST
BRIEF INSTANCES OF EARLY MORNING FOG. AN APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities