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000
FXUS62 KRAH 230729
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD OVER THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT... THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST HAVE ALL BUT DIED OFF THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL HOLD UNTIL SOON AFTER DAYBREAK
(PRIMARILY OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA)... FOLLOWED BY A TREND TO
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SKIES AS A LIGHT SW SURFACE BREEZE INDUCES MIXING
AND DISPERSION OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS
LOW TODAY (10-15 KTS) WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY (MLCAPE PEAKING AT
500-1000 J/KG) WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 5.5-6.0 C/KM.
DYNAMICALLY WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE LULL ZONE TODAY WITH THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST CONTINUING TO NOSE WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST... WHILE ENERGY DIVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WRN OH VALLEY... HELPING DIG THE TROUGH
JUST TO OUR NW TONIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES.
PW VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED (1.7-2.1)... SO STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TODAY... BUT THE LACK OF DEEP SHEAR AND
CONVECTIVE FOCUS AND THE WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HAMPER STORM
ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH. BOTH THE TRADITIONAL AND CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MODELS BEAR THIS OUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE TODAY... ALONG
WITH A SHIFT IN BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO COASTAL
SECTIONS. WILL KEEP POPS AT 25-35% TODAY... PEAKING DURING THE
TYPICAL MID-LATE AFTERNOON... AND TAPERING DOWN IN THE MID-LATE
EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND PW DIPS SLIGHTLY. HIGHS
89-93 WITH NEAR-NORMAL THICKNESSES AND SOME SUNSHINE. LOWS 69-74
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...

MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/STORMS AT SOME POINT THU. THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THU... WITH
PROJECTED HEIGHT FALLS OF 30-50 M OVER NC. THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS EARLY THU
MORNING... THEN EASE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NC DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AS DPVA
ALOFT STRENGTHENS. THIS IMPROVING DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
ATTEND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS AND GREATER DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30-35 KTS. INSTABILITY COULD HOLD ON THE LOW SIDE HOWEVER... AS
MODELS SHOW MUCAPE TOPPING OUT AT 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE
CENTRAL/ERN CWA... WHICH COULD BE A FUNCTION OF THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF
THE DYNAMIC LIFT AS SUGGESTED BY TRADITIONAL MODELS (WHICH SHOW GOOD
QPF COVERAGE OVER THE NRN/WRN CWA PRIOR TO 18Z) AS WELL AS THE HIGH-
RES WRF-NMM/ARW AND THE (NAM-HEAVY) SREF PROBABILITIES. WILL BRING
IN MID RANGE CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW CWA BY LATE MORNING...
SPREADING EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...
BEFORE ENDING WNW TO ESE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
DID KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA
THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN THAT THE FRONTAL ZONE COULD BECOME STALLED
OUT THERE... AND THE INCOMING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE
CENTERED OVER IN/OH OVERNIGHT... NOT A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR THE
MORE DENSE AIR TO BE ABLE TO GET OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE RISK OF A
FEW SEVERE STORMS REMAINS... BOOSTED BY THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND THE IMPROVING KINEMATICS... BUT IF THE CONVECTION COMES
IN EARLIER IN THE DAY AS EXPECTED... THIS WILL CUT DOWN ON HEATING
AND RESULTING INSTABILITY OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SE CWA. AND MARGINAL
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (BARELY APPROACHING 6.0) SHOULD LIMIT THE
LARGE HAIL THREAT. BUT WITH THE RELATIVE VIGOROUS NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM (FOR JULY) AND POSSIBLE MODERATE INSTABILITY... WILL CONTINUE
THE MENTION OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO ESPECIALLY FROM THE
TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST... HIGHLIGHTING DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. HIGHS 84 NW TO 93 SE. LOWS 64 NW TO 73 SE.
-GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF MUCH OF CENTRAL NC BY FRIDAY...WITH WINDS
VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. IT
APPEARS THAT THE COOLEST AIR MAY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR NW ON
FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SIT ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80 WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES EXPECTED. GIVEN THE
LINGERING SFC LOW ALONG THE COAST AND THE FRONT STALLING IN THAT
GENERAL VICINITY...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. PWATS WILL
DECREASE TO UNDER AN INCH FOR FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THERE MAY BE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SOME
CONVECTION IN THE EAST SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...DIURNAL IN NATURE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...AS IS THE MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITATION...EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY. AS OF THE LATEST (00Z) GFS MODEL
RUN...THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...BUT FOR NOW WILL FORECAST HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM WEDNESDAY...

PATCHY SHOWERS NEAR FAY ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT BEFORE
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE COULD
AFFECT FAY WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY... BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL NC TAF AIRFIELDS SHOULD STAY DRY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN IN PAST MORNINGS BUT IT APPEARS THAT ALL
SITES ARE LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS PRIOR TO 12Z... AND
SUB-MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE SPARSITY OF RAINFALL
YESTERDAY. MVFR TO HIGH-END IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AT RWI
THROUGH 13Z... WITH ONLY BRIEF MVFR OR HIGH-END IFR CIGS AT
RDU/RWI... AND VFR CIGS LIKELY HOLDING AT INT/GSO. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY FROM 14Z ON THROUGH THE DAY AS CIGS LIFT AND BREAK UP
WITH MIXING... WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AT 8-12 KTS. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED OR IN SMALL CLUSTERS... AND THE
CHANCE OF THEM AFFECTING TAF SITES IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z EXCEPT
AT RWI... WHICH MAY SEE MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AFTER 03Z.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT FOG AT
RWI... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
BREEZE FROM THE SW. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS STARTING LATE MORNING
(15Z-18Z) AT INT/GSO BEFORE SPREADING EAST TO RDU DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND TO RWI/FAY DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
MAY SLOW DOWN OVER COASTAL SECTIONS THU NIGHT/FRI... KEEPING A
CHANCE OF SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON... BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI-SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY... POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS..HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 230729
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD OVER THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT... THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST HAVE ALL BUT DIED OFF THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL HOLD UNTIL SOON AFTER DAYBREAK
(PRIMARILY OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA)... FOLLOWED BY A TREND TO
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SKIES AS A LIGHT SW SURFACE BREEZE INDUCES MIXING
AND DISPERSION OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS
LOW TODAY (10-15 KTS) WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY (MLCAPE PEAKING AT
500-1000 J/KG) WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 5.5-6.0 C/KM.
DYNAMICALLY WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE LULL ZONE TODAY WITH THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST CONTINUING TO NOSE WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST... WHILE ENERGY DIVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WRN OH VALLEY... HELPING DIG THE TROUGH
JUST TO OUR NW TONIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES.
PW VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED (1.7-2.1)... SO STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TODAY... BUT THE LACK OF DEEP SHEAR AND
CONVECTIVE FOCUS AND THE WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HAMPER STORM
ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH. BOTH THE TRADITIONAL AND CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MODELS BEAR THIS OUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE TODAY... ALONG
WITH A SHIFT IN BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO COASTAL
SECTIONS. WILL KEEP POPS AT 25-35% TODAY... PEAKING DURING THE
TYPICAL MID-LATE AFTERNOON... AND TAPERING DOWN IN THE MID-LATE
EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND PW DIPS SLIGHTLY. HIGHS
89-93 WITH NEAR-NORMAL THICKNESSES AND SOME SUNSHINE. LOWS 69-74
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...

MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/STORMS AT SOME POINT THU. THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THU... WITH
PROJECTED HEIGHT FALLS OF 30-50 M OVER NC. THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS EARLY THU
MORNING... THEN EASE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NC DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AS DPVA
ALOFT STRENGTHENS. THIS IMPROVING DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
ATTEND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS AND GREATER DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30-35 KTS. INSTABILITY COULD HOLD ON THE LOW SIDE HOWEVER... AS
MODELS SHOW MUCAPE TOPPING OUT AT 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE
CENTRAL/ERN CWA... WHICH COULD BE A FUNCTION OF THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF
THE DYNAMIC LIFT AS SUGGESTED BY TRADITIONAL MODELS (WHICH SHOW GOOD
QPF COVERAGE OVER THE NRN/WRN CWA PRIOR TO 18Z) AS WELL AS THE HIGH-
RES WRF-NMM/ARW AND THE (NAM-HEAVY) SREF PROBABILITIES. WILL BRING
IN MID RANGE CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW CWA BY LATE MORNING...
SPREADING EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...
BEFORE ENDING WNW TO ESE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
DID KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA
THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN THAT THE FRONTAL ZONE COULD BECOME STALLED
OUT THERE... AND THE INCOMING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE
CENTERED OVER IN/OH OVERNIGHT... NOT A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR THE
MORE DENSE AIR TO BE ABLE TO GET OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE RISK OF A
FEW SEVERE STORMS REMAINS... BOOSTED BY THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND THE IMPROVING KINEMATICS... BUT IF THE CONVECTION COMES
IN EARLIER IN THE DAY AS EXPECTED... THIS WILL CUT DOWN ON HEATING
AND RESULTING INSTABILITY OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SE CWA. AND MARGINAL
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (BARELY APPROACHING 6.0) SHOULD LIMIT THE
LARGE HAIL THREAT. BUT WITH THE RELATIVE VIGOROUS NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM (FOR JULY) AND POSSIBLE MODERATE INSTABILITY... WILL CONTINUE
THE MENTION OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO ESPECIALLY FROM THE
TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST... HIGHLIGHTING DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. HIGHS 84 NW TO 93 SE. LOWS 64 NW TO 73 SE.
-GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF MUCH OF CENTRAL NC BY FRIDAY...WITH WINDS
VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. IT
APPEARS THAT THE COOLEST AIR MAY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR NW ON
FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SIT ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80 WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES EXPECTED. GIVEN THE
LINGERING SFC LOW ALONG THE COAST AND THE FRONT STALLING IN THAT
GENERAL VICINITY...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. PWATS WILL
DECREASE TO UNDER AN INCH FOR FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THERE MAY BE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SOME
CONVECTION IN THE EAST SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...DIURNAL IN NATURE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...AS IS THE MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITATION...EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY. AS OF THE LATEST (00Z) GFS MODEL
RUN...THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...BUT FOR NOW WILL FORECAST HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM WEDNESDAY...

PATCHY SHOWERS NEAR FAY ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT BEFORE
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE COULD
AFFECT FAY WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY... BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL NC TAF AIRFIELDS SHOULD STAY DRY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN IN PAST MORNINGS BUT IT APPEARS THAT ALL
SITES ARE LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS PRIOR TO 12Z... AND
SUB-MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE SPARSITY OF RAINFALL
YESTERDAY. MVFR TO HIGH-END IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AT RWI
THROUGH 13Z... WITH ONLY BRIEF MVFR OR HIGH-END IFR CIGS AT
RDU/RWI... AND VFR CIGS LIKELY HOLDING AT INT/GSO. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY FROM 14Z ON THROUGH THE DAY AS CIGS LIFT AND BREAK UP
WITH MIXING... WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AT 8-12 KTS. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED OR IN SMALL CLUSTERS... AND THE
CHANCE OF THEM AFFECTING TAF SITES IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z EXCEPT
AT RWI... WHICH MAY SEE MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AFTER 03Z.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT FOG AT
RWI... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
BREEZE FROM THE SW. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS STARTING LATE MORNING
(15Z-18Z) AT INT/GSO BEFORE SPREADING EAST TO RDU DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND TO RWI/FAY DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
MAY SLOW DOWN OVER COASTAL SECTIONS THU NIGHT/FRI... KEEPING A
CHANCE OF SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON... BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI-SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY... POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS..HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 230726
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD OVER THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT... THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST HAVE ALL BUT DIED OFF THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL HOLD UNTIL SOON AFTER DAYBREAK
(PRIMARILY OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA)... FOLLOWED BY A TREND TO
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SKIES AS A LIGHT SW SURFACE BREEZE INDUCES MIXING
AND DISPERSION OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS
LOW TODAY (10-15 KTS) WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY (MLCAPE PEAKING AT
500-1000 J/KG) WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 5.5-6.0 C/KM.
DYNAMICALLY WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE LULL ZONE TODAY WITH THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST CONTINUING TO NOSE WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST... WHILE ENERGY DIVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WRN OH VALLEY... HELPING DIG THE TROUGH
JUST TO OUR NW TONIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES.
PW VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED (1.7-2.1)... SO STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TODAY... BUT THE LACK OF DEEP SHEAR AND
CONVECTIVE FOCUS AND THE WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HAMPER STORM
ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH. BOTH THE TRADITIONAL AND CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MODELS BEAR THIS OUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE TODAY... ALONG
WITH A SHIFT IN BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO COASTAL
SECTIONS. WILL KEEP POPS AT 25-35% TODAY... PEAKING DURING THE
TYPICAL MID-LATE AFTERNOON... AND TAPERING DOWN IN THE MID-LATE
EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND PW DIPS SLIGHTLY. HIGHS
89-93 WITH NEAR-NORMAL THICKNESSES AND SOME SUNSHINE. LOWS 69-74
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...

MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/STORMS AT SOME POINT THU. THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THU... WITH
PROJECTED HEIGHT FALLS OF 30-50 M OVER NC. THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS EARLY THU
MORNING... THEN EASE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NC DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AS DPVA
ALOFT STRENGTHENS. THIS IMPROVING DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
ATTEND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS AND GREATER DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30-35 KTS. INSTABILITY COULD HOLD ON THE LOW SIDE HOWEVER... AS
MODELS SHOW MUCAPE TOPPING OUT AT 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE
CENTRAL/ERN CWA... WHICH COULD BE A FUNCTION OF THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF
THE DYNAMIC LIFT AS SUGGESTED BY TRADITIONAL MODELS (WHICH SHOW GOOD
QPF COVERAGE OVER THE NRN/WRN CWA PRIOR TO 18Z) AS WELL AS THE HIGH-
RES WRF-NMM/ARW AND THE (NAM-HEAVY) SREF PROBABILITIES. WILL BRING
IN MID RANGE CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW CWA BY LATE MORNING...
SPREADING EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...
BEFORE ENDING WNW TO ESE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
DID KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA
THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN THAT THE FRONTAL ZONE COULD BECOME STALLED
OUT THERE... AND THE INCOMING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE
CENTERED OVER IN/OH OVERNIGHT... NOT A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR THE
MORE DENSE AIR TO BE ABLE TO GET OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE RISK OF A
FEW SEVERE STORMS REMAINS... BOOSTED BY THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND THE IMPROVING KINEMATICS... BUT IF THE CONVECTION COMES
IN EARLIER IN THE DAY AS EXPECTED... THIS WILL CUT DOWN ON HEATING
AND RESULTING INSTABILITY OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SE CWA. AND MARGINAL
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (BARELY APPROACHING 6.0) SHOULD LIMIT THE
LARGE HAIL THREAT. BUT WITH THE RELATIVE VIGOROUS NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM (FOR JULY) AND POSSIBLE MODERATE INSTABILITY... WILL CONTINUE
THE MENTION OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO ESPECIALLY FROM THE
TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST... HIGHLIGHTING DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. HIGHS 84 NW TO 93 SE. LOWS 64 NW TO 73 SE.
-GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF MUCH OF CENTRAL NC BY FRIDAY...WITH WINDS
VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. IT
APPEARS THAT THE COOLEST AIR MAY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR NW ON
FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SIT ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80 WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES EXPECTED. GIVEN THE
LINGERING SFC LOW ALONG THE COAST AND THE FRONT STALLING IN THAT
GENERAL VICINITY...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. PWATS WILL
DECREASE TO UNDER AN INCH FOR FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THERE MAY BE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SOME
CONVECTION IN THE EAST SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...DIURNAL IN NATURE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...AS IS THE MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITATION...EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY. AS OF THE LATEST (00Z) GFS MODEL
RUN...THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...BUT FOR NOW WILL FORECAST HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM WEDNESDAY...

PATCHY SHOWERS NEAR FAY ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT BEFORE
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE COULD
AFFECT FAY WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY... BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL NC TAF AIRFIELDS SHOULD STAY DRY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN IN PAST MORNINGS BUT IT APPEARS THAT ALL
SITES ARE LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS PRIOR TO 12Z... AND
SUB-MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE SPARCITY OF RAINFALL
YESTERDAY. MVFR TO HIGH-END IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AT RWI
THROUGH 13Z... WITH ONLY BRIEF MVFR OR HIGH-END IFR CIGS AT
RDU/RWI... AND VFR CIGS LIKELY HOLDING AT INT/GSO. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY FROM 14Z ON THROUGH THE DAY AS CIGS LIFT AND BREAK UP
WITH MIXING... WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AT 8-12 KTS. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED OR IN SMALL CLUSTERS... AND THE
CHANCE OF THEM AFFECTING TAF SITES IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z EXCEPT
AT RWI... WHICH MAY SEE MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AFTER 03Z.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT FOG AT
RWI... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
BREEZE FROM THE SW. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS STARTING LATE MORNING
(15Z-18Z) AT INT/GSO BEFORE SPREADING EAST TO RDU DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND TO RWI/FAY DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
MAY SLOW DOWN OVER COASTAL SECTIONS THU NIGHT/FRI... KEEPING A
CHANCE OF SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON... BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI-SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY... POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS..HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 230726
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD OVER THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT... THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST HAVE ALL BUT DIED OFF THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL HOLD UNTIL SOON AFTER DAYBREAK
(PRIMARILY OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA)... FOLLOWED BY A TREND TO
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SKIES AS A LIGHT SW SURFACE BREEZE INDUCES MIXING
AND DISPERSION OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS
LOW TODAY (10-15 KTS) WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY (MLCAPE PEAKING AT
500-1000 J/KG) WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 5.5-6.0 C/KM.
DYNAMICALLY WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE LULL ZONE TODAY WITH THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST CONTINUING TO NOSE WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST... WHILE ENERGY DIVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WRN OH VALLEY... HELPING DIG THE TROUGH
JUST TO OUR NW TONIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES.
PW VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED (1.7-2.1)... SO STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TODAY... BUT THE LACK OF DEEP SHEAR AND
CONVECTIVE FOCUS AND THE WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HAMPER STORM
ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH. BOTH THE TRADITIONAL AND CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MODELS BEAR THIS OUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE TODAY... ALONG
WITH A SHIFT IN BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO COASTAL
SECTIONS. WILL KEEP POPS AT 25-35% TODAY... PEAKING DURING THE
TYPICAL MID-LATE AFTERNOON... AND TAPERING DOWN IN THE MID-LATE
EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND PW DIPS SLIGHTLY. HIGHS
89-93 WITH NEAR-NORMAL THICKNESSES AND SOME SUNSHINE. LOWS 69-74
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...

MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/STORMS AT SOME POINT THU. THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THU... WITH
PROJECTED HEIGHT FALLS OF 30-50 M OVER NC. THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS EARLY THU
MORNING... THEN EASE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NC DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AS DPVA
ALOFT STRENGTHENS. THIS IMPROVING DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
ATTEND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS AND GREATER DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30-35 KTS. INSTABILITY COULD HOLD ON THE LOW SIDE HOWEVER... AS
MODELS SHOW MUCAPE TOPPING OUT AT 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE
CENTRAL/ERN CWA... WHICH COULD BE A FUNCTION OF THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF
THE DYNAMIC LIFT AS SUGGESTED BY TRADITIONAL MODELS (WHICH SHOW GOOD
QPF COVERAGE OVER THE NRN/WRN CWA PRIOR TO 18Z) AS WELL AS THE HIGH-
RES WRF-NMM/ARW AND THE (NAM-HEAVY) SREF PROBABILITIES. WILL BRING
IN MID RANGE CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW CWA BY LATE MORNING...
SPREADING EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON...
BEFORE ENDING WNW TO ESE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
DID KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA
THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN THAT THE FRONTAL ZONE COULD BECOME STALLED
OUT THERE... AND THE INCOMING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE
CENTERED OVER IN/OH OVERNIGHT... NOT A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR THE
MORE DENSE AIR TO BE ABLE TO GET OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE RISK OF A
FEW SEVERE STORMS REMAINS... BOOSTED BY THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND THE IMPROVING KINEMATICS... BUT IF THE CONVECTION COMES
IN EARLIER IN THE DAY AS EXPECTED... THIS WILL CUT DOWN ON HEATING
AND RESULTING INSTABILITY OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SE CWA. AND MARGINAL
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (BARELY APPROACHING 6.0) SHOULD LIMIT THE
LARGE HAIL THREAT. BUT WITH THE RELATIVE VIGOROUS NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM (FOR JULY) AND POSSIBLE MODERATE INSTABILITY... WILL CONTINUE
THE MENTION OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO ESPECIALLY FROM THE
TRIANGLE SOUTH AND EAST... HIGHLIGHTING DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. HIGHS 84 NW TO 93 SE. LOWS 64 NW TO 73 SE.
-GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF MUCH OF CENTRAL NC BY FRIDAY...WITH WINDS
VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. IT
APPEARS THAT THE COOLEST AIR MAY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR NW ON
FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SIT ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80 WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES EXPECTED. GIVEN THE
LINGERING SFC LOW ALONG THE COAST AND THE FRONT STALLING IN THAT
GENERAL VICINITY...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. PWATS WILL
DECREASE TO UNDER AN INCH FOR FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THERE MAY BE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SOME
CONVECTION IN THE EAST SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...DIURNAL IN NATURE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...AS IS THE MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITATION...EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY. AS OF THE LATEST (00Z) GFS MODEL
RUN...THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...BUT FOR NOW WILL FORECAST HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM WEDNESDAY...

PATCHY SHOWERS NEAR FAY ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT BEFORE
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE COULD
AFFECT FAY WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY... BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL NC TAF AIRFIELDS SHOULD STAY DRY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN IN PAST MORNINGS BUT IT APPEARS THAT ALL
SITES ARE LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS PRIOR TO 12Z... AND
SUB-MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE SPARCITY OF RAINFALL
YESTERDAY. MVFR TO HIGH-END IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AT RWI
THROUGH 13Z... WITH ONLY BRIEF MVFR OR HIGH-END IFR CIGS AT
RDU/RWI... AND VFR CIGS LIKELY HOLDING AT INT/GSO. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY FROM 14Z ON THROUGH THE DAY AS CIGS LIFT AND BREAK UP
WITH MIXING... WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AT 8-12 KTS. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED OR IN SMALL CLUSTERS... AND THE
CHANCE OF THEM AFFECTING TAF SITES IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z EXCEPT
AT RWI... WHICH MAY SEE MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AFTER 03Z.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT FOG AT
RWI... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
BREEZE FROM THE SW. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS STARTING LATE MORNING
(15Z-18Z) AT INT/GSO BEFORE SPREADING EAST TO RDU DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND TO RWI/FAY DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
MAY SLOW DOWN OVER COASTAL SECTIONS THU NIGHT/FRI... KEEPING A
CHANCE OF SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON... BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI-SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY... POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS..HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 230659
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD OVER THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT... THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST HAVE ALL BUT DIED OFF THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL HOLD UNTIL SOON AFTER DAYBREAK
(PRIMARILY OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA)... FOLLOWED BY A TREND TO
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SKIES AS A LIGHT SW SURFACE BREEZE INDUCES MIXING
AND DISPERSION OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS
LOW TODAY (10-15 KTS) WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY (MLCAPE PEAKING AT
500-1000 J/KG) WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 5.5-6.0 C/KM.
DYNAMICALLY WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE LULL ZONE TODAY WITH THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST CONTINUING TO NOSE WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST... WHILE ENERGY DIVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WRN OH VALLEY... HELPING DIG THE TROUGH
JUST TO OUR NW TONIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES.
PW VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED (1.7-2.1)... SO STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TODAY... BUT THE LACK OF DEEP SHEAR AND
CONVECTIVE FOCUS AND THE WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HAMPER STORM
ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH. BOTH THE TRADITIONAL AND CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MODELS BEAR THIS OUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE TODAY... ALONG
WITH A SHIFT IN BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO COASTAL
SECTIONS. WILL KEEP POPS AT 25-35% TODAY... PEAKING DURING THE
TYPICAL MID-LATE AFTERNOON... AND TAPERING DOWN IN THE MID-LATE
EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND PW DIPS SLIGHTLY. HIGHS
89-93 WITH NEAR-NORMAL THICKNESSES AND SOME SUNSHINE. LOWS 69-74
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...


BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM SHOW A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
TROUGH AXIS ALOFT PUSHES SLOWLY EAST. MEAN MOISTURE INCREASES
THURSDAY WITH GOOD LIFT FORECAST BY THE GFS AND THE NAM.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AT OR JUST OVER TWO INCHES
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1. DYNAMICALLY...THE GFS FORECASTS THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT 300MB JET OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY 18Z THURSDAY...AND THIS JET GRADUALLY MOVES EAST INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS BECOME MOIST AND MORE UNSTABLE DURING
THE DAY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND IT APPEARS AT LEAST GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE WARRANTED...WHICH MAY BECOME
LIKELY CHANCES OVER TIME OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. 1000-500MB LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT REALLY HIGH BUT DECENT...TO 6.8C/KM...AND AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS AT BOTH 850MB AND 925MB ARE FORECAST TO ACTUALLY DIMINISH SOME
DURING THE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...0-3KM SHEAR IS MODEST...MOSTLY
IN THE TEENS KNOTS TO AROUND 20KT TOWARD THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THE
BEST CAPE AROUND 18Z IS FORECAST BY THE GFS JUST WEST OF U.S. 1...
AROUND 900J/KG...SHIFTING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BETTER
DOWNDRAFT CAPE CERTAINLY BETTER EAST OF U.S. 1. GIVEN A COMBINATION
OF THESE MODEST PARAMETER VALUES...SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DUE TO WIND IS
A REASONABLE FORECAST. IN A RELATIVE SENSE...THE BETTER CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL WIND. THERE APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH WIND AND SHEAR THAT STORMS SHOULD MOVE...POSING A LOCAL
FLOOD THREAT TO THE TYPICAL URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS WHERE
LOCAL TRAINING COULD OCCUR. 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES ARE LOW AND
ACTUALLY GET LOWER...INTO THE LOWER DOUBLE DIGITS...DURING THE DAY.

THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH CLEARING AND INCREASING STABILITY
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT NOT GREATLY SO...SUCH
THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOULD
WANE IN THE TRIAD BY 03Z...BY 06Z TOWARD KRDU...AND BY 09Z TOWARD
INTERSTATE 95. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLEARING...WITH THE
WEAKENING FRONT MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS
OF FOG OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...BUT THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS DEPENDENT ON
THE OVERALL DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN
THE FORECAST CURRENTLY. ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT
SHOULD START TO GET HUNG UP NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER AND
TOWARD THE COAST...BUFR SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS BECOME
FAIRLY STABLE TO DEEP CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...WITH VALUES APPROACHING AN INCH IN THE TRIAD
BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST MINIMAL QPF
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING MOISTURE...
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO PROVIDE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OUTSIDE
THE TRIAD...WHERE IT JUST SEEMS TOO STABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE QUITE HIGH MOISTURE AROUND
850MB WHILE THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT LESS...AND BLENDING THEM SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF GOOD CU IN MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
FOR A TIME FRIDAY ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE TRIAD. HIGHS THURSDAY
MOSTLY A BLEND OF MOS...LEANING COOLER TOWARD THE TRIAD AND HIGHER
TOWARD I-95 FOR VALUES FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT 67 TO 73...THEN HIGHS FRIDAY MOSTLY 85 TO 90...JUST A TOUCH
COOLER THAN 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD IMPLY DUE MOSTLY TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CU FOR A PERIOD THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF MUCH OF CENTRAL NC BY FRIDAY...WITH WINDS
VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. IT
APPEARS THAT THE COOLEST AIR MAY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR NW ON
FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SIT ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80 WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES EXPECTED. GIVEN THE
LINGERING SFC LOW ALONG THE COAST AND THE FRONT STALLING IN THAT
GENERAL VICINITY...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. PWATS WILL
DECREASE TO UNDER AN INCH FOR FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THERE MAY BE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SOME
CONVECTION IN THE EAST SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...DIURNAL IN NATURE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...AS IS THE MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITATION...EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY. AS OF THE LATEST (00Z) GFS MODEL
RUN...THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...BUT FOR NOW WILL FORECAST HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM WEDNESDAY...

PATCHY SHOWERS NEAR FAY ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT BEFORE
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE COULD
AFFECT FAY WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY... BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL NC TAF AIRFIELDS SHOULD STAY DRY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN IN PAST MORNINGS BUT IT APPEARS THAT ALL
SITES ARE LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS PRIOR TO 12Z... AND
SUB-MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE SPARCITY OF RAINFALL
YESTERDAY. MVFR TO HIGH-END IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AT RWI
THROUGH 13Z... WITH ONLY BRIEF MVFR OR HIGH-END IFR CIGS AT
RDU/RWI... AND VFR CIGS LIKELY HOLDING AT INT/GSO. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY FROM 14Z ON THROUGH THE DAY AS CIGS LIFT AND BREAK UP
WITH MIXING... WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AT 8-12 KTS. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED OR IN SMALL CLUSTERS... AND THE
CHANCE OF THEM AFFECTING TAF SITES IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z EXCEPT
AT RWI... WHICH MAY SEE MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AFTER 03Z.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT FOG AT
RWI... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
BREEZE FROM THE SW. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS STARTING LATE MORNING
(15Z-18Z) AT INT/GSO BEFORE SPREADING EAST TO RDU DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND TO RWI/FAY DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
MAY SLOW DOWN OVER COASTAL SECTIONS THU NIGHT/FRI... KEEPING A
CHANCE OF SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON... BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI-SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY... POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS..HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 230659
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD OVER THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT... THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST HAVE ALL BUT DIED OFF THIS MORNING.
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL HOLD UNTIL SOON AFTER DAYBREAK
(PRIMARILY OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA)... FOLLOWED BY A TREND TO
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SKIES AS A LIGHT SW SURFACE BREEZE INDUCES MIXING
AND DISPERSION OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS
LOW TODAY (10-15 KTS) WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY (MLCAPE PEAKING AT
500-1000 J/KG) WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 5.5-6.0 C/KM.
DYNAMICALLY WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE LULL ZONE TODAY WITH THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST CONTINUING TO NOSE WESTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST... WHILE ENERGY DIVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WRN OH VALLEY... HELPING DIG THE TROUGH
JUST TO OUR NW TONIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES.
PW VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED (1.7-2.1)... SO STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TODAY... BUT THE LACK OF DEEP SHEAR AND
CONVECTIVE FOCUS AND THE WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HAMPER STORM
ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH. BOTH THE TRADITIONAL AND CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MODELS BEAR THIS OUT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE TODAY... ALONG
WITH A SHIFT IN BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO COASTAL
SECTIONS. WILL KEEP POPS AT 25-35% TODAY... PEAKING DURING THE
TYPICAL MID-LATE AFTERNOON... AND TAPERING DOWN IN THE MID-LATE
EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES AND PW DIPS SLIGHTLY. HIGHS
89-93 WITH NEAR-NORMAL THICKNESSES AND SOME SUNSHINE. LOWS 69-74
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...


BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM SHOW A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
TROUGH AXIS ALOFT PUSHES SLOWLY EAST. MEAN MOISTURE INCREASES
THURSDAY WITH GOOD LIFT FORECAST BY THE GFS AND THE NAM.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AT OR JUST OVER TWO INCHES
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1. DYNAMICALLY...THE GFS FORECASTS THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT 300MB JET OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY 18Z THURSDAY...AND THIS JET GRADUALLY MOVES EAST INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS BECOME MOIST AND MORE UNSTABLE DURING
THE DAY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND IT APPEARS AT LEAST GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE WARRANTED...WHICH MAY BECOME
LIKELY CHANCES OVER TIME OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. 1000-500MB LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT REALLY HIGH BUT DECENT...TO 6.8C/KM...AND AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS AT BOTH 850MB AND 925MB ARE FORECAST TO ACTUALLY DIMINISH SOME
DURING THE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...0-3KM SHEAR IS MODEST...MOSTLY
IN THE TEENS KNOTS TO AROUND 20KT TOWARD THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THE
BEST CAPE AROUND 18Z IS FORECAST BY THE GFS JUST WEST OF U.S. 1...
AROUND 900J/KG...SHIFTING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BETTER
DOWNDRAFT CAPE CERTAINLY BETTER EAST OF U.S. 1. GIVEN A COMBINATION
OF THESE MODEST PARAMETER VALUES...SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DUE TO WIND IS
A REASONABLE FORECAST. IN A RELATIVE SENSE...THE BETTER CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL WIND. THERE APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH WIND AND SHEAR THAT STORMS SHOULD MOVE...POSING A LOCAL
FLOOD THREAT TO THE TYPICAL URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS WHERE
LOCAL TRAINING COULD OCCUR. 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES ARE LOW AND
ACTUALLY GET LOWER...INTO THE LOWER DOUBLE DIGITS...DURING THE DAY.

THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH CLEARING AND INCREASING STABILITY
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT NOT GREATLY SO...SUCH
THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOULD
WANE IN THE TRIAD BY 03Z...BY 06Z TOWARD KRDU...AND BY 09Z TOWARD
INTERSTATE 95. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLEARING...WITH THE
WEAKENING FRONT MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS
OF FOG OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...BUT THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS DEPENDENT ON
THE OVERALL DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN
THE FORECAST CURRENTLY. ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT
SHOULD START TO GET HUNG UP NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER AND
TOWARD THE COAST...BUFR SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS BECOME
FAIRLY STABLE TO DEEP CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...WITH VALUES APPROACHING AN INCH IN THE TRIAD
BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST MINIMAL QPF
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING MOISTURE...
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO PROVIDE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OUTSIDE
THE TRIAD...WHERE IT JUST SEEMS TOO STABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE QUITE HIGH MOISTURE AROUND
850MB WHILE THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT LESS...AND BLENDING THEM SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF GOOD CU IN MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
FOR A TIME FRIDAY ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE TRIAD. HIGHS THURSDAY
MOSTLY A BLEND OF MOS...LEANING COOLER TOWARD THE TRIAD AND HIGHER
TOWARD I-95 FOR VALUES FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT 67 TO 73...THEN HIGHS FRIDAY MOSTLY 85 TO 90...JUST A TOUCH
COOLER THAN 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD IMPLY DUE MOSTLY TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CU FOR A PERIOD THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF MUCH OF CENTRAL NC BY FRIDAY...WITH WINDS
VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. IT
APPEARS THAT THE COOLEST AIR MAY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR NW ON
FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SIT ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80 WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES EXPECTED. GIVEN THE
LINGERING SFC LOW ALONG THE COAST AND THE FRONT STALLING IN THAT
GENERAL VICINITY...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. PWATS WILL
DECREASE TO UNDER AN INCH FOR FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THERE MAY BE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SOME
CONVECTION IN THE EAST SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...DIURNAL IN NATURE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...AS IS THE MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITATION...EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY. AS OF THE LATEST (00Z) GFS MODEL
RUN...THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...BUT FOR NOW WILL FORECAST HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM WEDNESDAY...

PATCHY SHOWERS NEAR FAY ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT BEFORE
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE COULD
AFFECT FAY WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY... BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL NC TAF AIRFIELDS SHOULD STAY DRY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN IN PAST MORNINGS BUT IT APPEARS THAT ALL
SITES ARE LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS PRIOR TO 12Z... AND
SUB-MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE SPARCITY OF RAINFALL
YESTERDAY. MVFR TO HIGH-END IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AT RWI
THROUGH 13Z... WITH ONLY BRIEF MVFR OR HIGH-END IFR CIGS AT
RDU/RWI... AND VFR CIGS LIKELY HOLDING AT INT/GSO. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY FROM 14Z ON THROUGH THE DAY AS CIGS LIFT AND BREAK UP
WITH MIXING... WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AT 8-12 KTS. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED OR IN SMALL CLUSTERS... AND THE
CHANCE OF THEM AFFECTING TAF SITES IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z EXCEPT
AT RWI... WHICH MAY SEE MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AFTER 03Z.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT FOG AT
RWI... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
BREEZE FROM THE SW. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS STARTING LATE MORNING
(15Z-18Z) AT INT/GSO BEFORE SPREADING EAST TO RDU DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND TO RWI/FAY DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
MAY SLOW DOWN OVER COASTAL SECTIONS THU NIGHT/FRI... KEEPING A
CHANCE OF SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON... BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI-SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY... POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS..HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 230640
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD OVER THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT... THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 824 PM TUESDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY DIED OFF IN THE PAST HOUR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN REGION WHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED AT MID EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE VERY SMALL CORES WITH SOME LOCALLY INTENSE
RAINFALL. EVEN WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS... ONLY VERY
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS WERE OCCURRING WITH NO REPORTED RUNOFF PROBLEMS
YET. THE AREAS AFFECTED EXTEND FROM NEAR SOUTHERN PINES TO
FAYETTEVILLE AND FORT BRAGG EAST TO NEAR CLINTON. IT APPEARS THAT
THESE STORMS ARE AGAIN LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. EXPECT THAT WITH
INCREASING CINH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... THEY WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY
AS WELL. OTHERWISE... THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS WELL.
THIS SHOULD LEAVE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT.
LOWS GENERALLY 68-73 N TO SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A CONVENTIONAL SUMMERTIME
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ENHANCING
LEE TROFFING OVER THE AREA. MIXING WILL BE DEEPER TO PROVIDE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS TOMORROW AS WELL...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THEIR
POTENTIAL IN THE LOW 90S. WE WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUPY AIRMASS...OF
COURSE...SO INSTABILITY WILL BE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 1.5K
JOULES...SO POPS IN THE 40 PERCENT RANGE ARE IN ORDER...GRADUATED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE WEST WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD
PROVIDE EARLIER INITIATION...AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROF AXIS.
SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL...UNIDIRECTIONAL AROUND 15 KNOTS...SO ONLY A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION
AND WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVERNIGHT. MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD IN LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW...72-75.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM SHOW A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
TROUGH AXIS ALOFT PUSHES SLOWLY EAST. MEAN MOISTURE INCREASES
THURSDAY WITH GOOD LIFT FORECAST BY THE GFS AND THE NAM.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AT OR JUST OVER TWO INCHES
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1. DYNAMICALLY...THE GFS FORECASTS THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT 300MB JET OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY 18Z THURSDAY...AND THIS JET GRADUALLY MOVES EAST INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS BECOME MOIST AND MORE UNSTABLE DURING
THE DAY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND IT APPEARS AT LEAST GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE WARRANTED...WHICH MAY BECOME
LIKELY CHANCES OVER TIME OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. 1000-500MB LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT REALLY HIGH BUT DECENT...TO 6.8C/KM...AND AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS AT BOTH 850MB AND 925MB ARE FORECAST TO ACTUALLY DIMINISH SOME
DURING THE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...0-3KM SHEAR IS MODEST...MOSTLY
IN THE TEENS KNOTS TO AROUND 20KT TOWARD THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THE
BEST CAPE AROUND 18Z IS FORECAST BY THE GFS JUST WEST OF U.S. 1...
AROUND 900J/KG...SHIFTING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BETTER
DOWNDRAFT CAPE CERTAINLY BETTER EAST OF U.S. 1. GIVEN A COMBINATION
OF THESE MODEST PARAMETER VALUES...SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DUE TO WIND IS
A REASONABLE FORECAST. IN A RELATIVE SENSE...THE BETTER CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL WIND. THERE APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH WIND AND SHEAR THAT STORMS SHOULD MOVE...POSING A LOCAL
FLOOD THREAT TO THE TYPICAL URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS WHERE
LOCAL TRAINING COULD OCCUR. 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES ARE LOW AND
ACTUALLY GET LOWER...INTO THE LOWER DOUBLE DIGITS...DURING THE DAY.

THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH CLEARING AND INCREASING STABILITY
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT NOT GREATLY SO...SUCH
THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOULD
WANE IN THE TRIAD BY 03Z...BY 06Z TOWARD KRDU...AND BY 09Z TOWARD
INTERSTATE 95. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLEARING...WITH THE
WEAKENING FRONT MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS
OF FOG OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...BUT THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS DEPENDENT ON
THE OVERALL DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN
THE FORECAST CURRENTLY. ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT
SHOULD START TO GET HUNG UP NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER AND
TOWARD THE COAST...BUFR SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS BECOME
FAIRLY STABLE TO DEEP CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...WITH VALUES APPROACHING AN INCH IN THE TRIAD
BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST MINIMAL QPF
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING MOISTURE...
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO PROVIDE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OUTSIDE
THE TRIAD...WHERE IT JUST SEEMS TOO STABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE QUITE HIGH MOISTURE AROUND
850MB WHILE THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT LESS...AND BLENDING THEM SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF GOOD CU IN MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
FOR A TIME FRIDAY ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE TRIAD. HIGHS THURSDAY
MOSTLY A BLEND OF MOS...LEANING COOLER TOWARD THE TRIAD AND HIGHER
TOWARD I-95 FOR VALUES FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT 67 TO 73...THEN HIGHS FRIDAY MOSTLY 85 TO 90...JUST A TOUCH
COOLER THAN 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD IMPLY DUE MOSTLY TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CU FOR A PERIOD THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF MUCH OF CENTRAL NC BY FRIDAY...WITH WINDS
VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. IT
APPEARS THAT THE COOLEST AIR MAY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR NW ON
FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SIT ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80 WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES EXPECTED. GIVEN THE
LINGERING SFC LOW ALONG THE COAST AND THE FRONT STALLING IN THAT
GENERAL VICINITY...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. PWATS WILL
DECREASE TO UNDER AN INCH FOR FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THERE MAY BE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SOME
CONVECTION IN THE EAST SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...DIURNAL IN NATURE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...AS IS THE MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITATION...EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY. AS OF THE LATEST (00Z) GFS MODEL
RUN...THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...BUT FOR NOW WILL FORECAST HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM WEDNESDAY...

PATCHY SHOWERS NEAR FAY ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT BEFORE
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE COULD
AFFECT FAY WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY... BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL NC TAF AIRFIELDS SHOULD STAY DRY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN IN PAST MORNINGS BUT IT APPEARS THAT ALL
SITES ARE LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS PRIOR TO 12Z... AND
SUB-MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE SPARCITY OF RAINFALL
YESTERDAY. MVFR TO HIGH-END IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AT RWI
THROUGH 13Z... WITH ONLY BRIEF MVFR OR HIGH-END IFR CIGS AT
RDU/RWI... AND VFR CIGS LIKELY HOLDING AT INT/GSO. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY FROM 14Z ON THROUGH THE DAY AS CIGS LIFT AND BREAK UP
WITH MIXING... WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AT 8-12 KTS. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED OR IN SMALL CLUSTERS... AND THE
CHANCE OF THEM AFFECTING TAF SITES IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z EXCEPT
AT RWI... WHICH MAY SEE MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AFTER 03Z.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT FOG AT
RWI... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
BREEZE FROM THE SW. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS STARTING LATE MORNING
(15Z-18Z) AT INT/GSO BEFORE SPREADING EAST TO RDU DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND TO RWI/FAY DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
MAY SLOW DOWN OVER COASTAL SECTIONS THU NIGHT/FRI... KEEPING A
CHANCE OF SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON... BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI-SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY... POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS..HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...32
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 230640
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD OVER THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT... THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 824 PM TUESDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY DIED OFF IN THE PAST HOUR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN REGION WHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED AT MID EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE VERY SMALL CORES WITH SOME LOCALLY INTENSE
RAINFALL. EVEN WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS... ONLY VERY
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS WERE OCCURRING WITH NO REPORTED RUNOFF PROBLEMS
YET. THE AREAS AFFECTED EXTEND FROM NEAR SOUTHERN PINES TO
FAYETTEVILLE AND FORT BRAGG EAST TO NEAR CLINTON. IT APPEARS THAT
THESE STORMS ARE AGAIN LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. EXPECT THAT WITH
INCREASING CINH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... THEY WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY
AS WELL. OTHERWISE... THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS WELL.
THIS SHOULD LEAVE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT.
LOWS GENERALLY 68-73 N TO SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A CONVENTIONAL SUMMERTIME
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ENHANCING
LEE TROFFING OVER THE AREA. MIXING WILL BE DEEPER TO PROVIDE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS TOMORROW AS WELL...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THEIR
POTENTIAL IN THE LOW 90S. WE WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUPY AIRMASS...OF
COURSE...SO INSTABILITY WILL BE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 1.5K
JOULES...SO POPS IN THE 40 PERCENT RANGE ARE IN ORDER...GRADUATED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE WEST WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD
PROVIDE EARLIER INITIATION...AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROF AXIS.
SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL...UNIDIRECTIONAL AROUND 15 KNOTS...SO ONLY A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION
AND WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVERNIGHT. MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD IN LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW...72-75.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM SHOW A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
TROUGH AXIS ALOFT PUSHES SLOWLY EAST. MEAN MOISTURE INCREASES
THURSDAY WITH GOOD LIFT FORECAST BY THE GFS AND THE NAM.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AT OR JUST OVER TWO INCHES
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1. DYNAMICALLY...THE GFS FORECASTS THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT 300MB JET OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY 18Z THURSDAY...AND THIS JET GRADUALLY MOVES EAST INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS BECOME MOIST AND MORE UNSTABLE DURING
THE DAY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND IT APPEARS AT LEAST GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE WARRANTED...WHICH MAY BECOME
LIKELY CHANCES OVER TIME OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. 1000-500MB LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT REALLY HIGH BUT DECENT...TO 6.8C/KM...AND AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS AT BOTH 850MB AND 925MB ARE FORECAST TO ACTUALLY DIMINISH SOME
DURING THE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...0-3KM SHEAR IS MODEST...MOSTLY
IN THE TEENS KNOTS TO AROUND 20KT TOWARD THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THE
BEST CAPE AROUND 18Z IS FORECAST BY THE GFS JUST WEST OF U.S. 1...
AROUND 900J/KG...SHIFTING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BETTER
DOWNDRAFT CAPE CERTAINLY BETTER EAST OF U.S. 1. GIVEN A COMBINATION
OF THESE MODEST PARAMETER VALUES...SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DUE TO WIND IS
A REASONABLE FORECAST. IN A RELATIVE SENSE...THE BETTER CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL WIND. THERE APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH WIND AND SHEAR THAT STORMS SHOULD MOVE...POSING A LOCAL
FLOOD THREAT TO THE TYPICAL URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS WHERE
LOCAL TRAINING COULD OCCUR. 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES ARE LOW AND
ACTUALLY GET LOWER...INTO THE LOWER DOUBLE DIGITS...DURING THE DAY.

THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH CLEARING AND INCREASING STABILITY
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT NOT GREATLY SO...SUCH
THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOULD
WANE IN THE TRIAD BY 03Z...BY 06Z TOWARD KRDU...AND BY 09Z TOWARD
INTERSTATE 95. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLEARING...WITH THE
WEAKENING FRONT MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS
OF FOG OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...BUT THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS DEPENDENT ON
THE OVERALL DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN
THE FORECAST CURRENTLY. ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT
SHOULD START TO GET HUNG UP NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER AND
TOWARD THE COAST...BUFR SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS BECOME
FAIRLY STABLE TO DEEP CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...WITH VALUES APPROACHING AN INCH IN THE TRIAD
BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST MINIMAL QPF
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING MOISTURE...
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO PROVIDE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OUTSIDE
THE TRIAD...WHERE IT JUST SEEMS TOO STABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE QUITE HIGH MOISTURE AROUND
850MB WHILE THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT LESS...AND BLENDING THEM SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF GOOD CU IN MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
FOR A TIME FRIDAY ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE TRIAD. HIGHS THURSDAY
MOSTLY A BLEND OF MOS...LEANING COOLER TOWARD THE TRIAD AND HIGHER
TOWARD I-95 FOR VALUES FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT 67 TO 73...THEN HIGHS FRIDAY MOSTLY 85 TO 90...JUST A TOUCH
COOLER THAN 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD IMPLY DUE MOSTLY TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CU FOR A PERIOD THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF MUCH OF CENTRAL NC BY FRIDAY...WITH WINDS
VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. IT
APPEARS THAT THE COOLEST AIR MAY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR NW ON
FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SIT ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80 WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES EXPECTED. GIVEN THE
LINGERING SFC LOW ALONG THE COAST AND THE FRONT STALLING IN THAT
GENERAL VICINITY...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. PWATS WILL
DECREASE TO UNDER AN INCH FOR FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THERE MAY BE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SOME
CONVECTION IN THE EAST SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...DIURNAL IN NATURE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...AS IS THE MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITATION...EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY. AS OF THE LATEST (00Z) GFS MODEL
RUN...THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST DAY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...BUT FOR NOW WILL FORECAST HIGHS A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM WEDNESDAY...

PATCHY SHOWERS NEAR FAY ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT BEFORE
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE COULD
AFFECT FAY WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY... BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL NC TAF AIRFIELDS SHOULD STAY DRY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN IN PAST MORNINGS BUT IT APPEARS THAT ALL
SITES ARE LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS PRIOR TO 12Z... AND
SUB-MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE SPARCITY OF RAINFALL
YESTERDAY. MVFR TO HIGH-END IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AT RWI
THROUGH 13Z... WITH ONLY BRIEF MVFR OR HIGH-END IFR CIGS AT
RDU/RWI... AND VFR CIGS LIKELY HOLDING AT INT/GSO. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY FROM 14Z ON THROUGH THE DAY AS CIGS LIFT AND BREAK UP
WITH MIXING... WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AT 8-12 KTS. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED OR IN SMALL CLUSTERS... AND THE
CHANCE OF THEM AFFECTING TAF SITES IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z EXCEPT
AT RWI... WHICH MAY SEE MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AFTER 03Z.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT FOG AT
RWI... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
BREEZE FROM THE SW. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS STARTING LATE MORNING
(15Z-18Z) AT INT/GSO BEFORE SPREADING EAST TO RDU DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND TO RWI/FAY DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
MAY SLOW DOWN OVER COASTAL SECTIONS THU NIGHT/FRI... KEEPING A
CHANCE OF SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON... BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI-SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY... POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS..HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...32
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 230455
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1254 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD OVER THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT... THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 824 PM TUESDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY DIED OFF IN THE PAST HOUR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN REGION WHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED AT MID EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE VERY SMALL CORES WITH SOME LOCALLY INTENSE
RAINFALL. EVEN WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS... ONLY VERY
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS WERE OCCURRING WITH NO REPORTED RUNOFF PROBLEMS
YET. THE AREAS AFFECTED EXTEND FROM NEAR SOUTHERN PINES TO
FAYETTEVILLE AND FORT BRAGG EAST TO NEAR CLINTON. IT APPEARS THAT
THESE STORMS ARE AGAIN LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. EXPECT THAT WITH
INCREASING CINH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... THEY WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY
AS WELL. OTHERWISE... THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS WELL.
THIS SHOULD LEAVE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT.
LOWS GENERALLY 68-73 N TO SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A CONVENTIONAL SUMMERTIME
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ENHANCING
LEE TROFFING OVER THE AREA. MIXING WILL BE DEEPER TO PROVIDE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS TOMORROW AS WELL...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THEIR
POTENTIAL IN THE LOW 90S. WE WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUPY AIRMASS...OF
COURSE...SO INSTABILITY WILL BE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 1.5K
JOULES...SO POPS IN THE 40 PERCENT RANGE ARE IN ORDER...GRADUATED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE WEST WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD
PROVIDE EARLIER INITIATION...AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROF AXIS.
SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL...UNIDIRECTIONAL AROUND 15 KNOTS...SO ONLY A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION
AND WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVERNIGHT. MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD IN LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW...72-75.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM SHOW A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
TROUGH AXIS ALOFT PUSHES SLOWLY EAST. MEAN MOISTURE INCREASES
THURSDAY WITH GOOD LIFT FORECAST BY THE GFS AND THE NAM.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AT OR JUST OVER TWO INCHES
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1. DYNAMICALLY...THE GFS FORECASTS THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT 300MB JET OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY 18Z THURSDAY...AND THIS JET GRADUALLY MOVES EAST INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS BECOME MOIST AND MORE UNSTABLE DURING
THE DAY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND IT APPEARS AT LEAST GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE WARRANTED...WHICH MAY BECOME
LIKELY CHANCES OVER TIME OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. 1000-500MB LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT REALLY HIGH BUT DECENT...TO 6.8C/KM...AND AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS AT BOTH 850MB AND 925MB ARE FORECAST TO ACTUALLY DIMINISH SOME
DURING THE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...0-3KM SHEAR IS MODEST...MOSTLY
IN THE TEENS KNOTS TO AROUND 20KT TOWARD THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THE
BEST CAPE AROUND 18Z IS FORECAST BY THE GFS JUST WEST OF U.S. 1...
AROUND 900J/KG...SHIFTING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BETTER
DOWNDRAFT CAPE CERTAINLY BETTER EAST OF U.S. 1. GIVEN A COMBINATION
OF THESE MODEST PARAMETER VALUES...SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DUE TO WIND IS
A REASONABLE FORECAST. IN A RELATIVE SENSE...THE BETTER CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL WIND. THERE APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH WIND AND SHEAR THAT STORMS SHOULD MOVE...POSING A LOCAL
FLOOD THREAT TO THE TYPICAL URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS WHERE
LOCAL TRAINING COULD OCCUR. 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES ARE LOW AND
ACTUALLY GET LOWER...INTO THE LOWER DOUBLE DIGITS...DURING THE DAY.

THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH CLEARING AND INCREASING STABILITY
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT NOT GREATLY SO...SUCH
THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOULD
WANE IN THE TRIAD BY 03Z...BY 06Z TOWARD KRDU...AND BY 09Z TOWARD
INTERSTATE 95. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLEARING...WITH THE
WEAKENING FRONT MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS
OF FOG OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...BUT THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS DEPENDENT ON
THE OVERALL DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN
THE FORECAST CURRENTLY. ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT
SHOULD START TO GET HUNG UP NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER AND
TOWARD THE COAST...BUFR SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS BECOME
FAIRLY STABLE TO DEEP CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...WITH VALUES APPROACHING AN INCH IN THE TRIAD
BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST MINIMAL QPF
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING MOISTURE...
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO PROVIDE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OUTSIDE
THE TRIAD...WHERE IT JUST SEEMS TOO STABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE QUITE HIGH MOISTURE AROUND
850MB WHILE THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT LESS...AND BLENDING THEM SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF GOOD CU IN MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
FOR A TIME FRIDAY ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE TRIAD. HIGHS THURSDAY
MOSTLY A BLEND OF MOS...LEANING COOLER TOWARD THE TRIAD AND HIGHER
TOWARD I-95 FOR VALUES FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT 67 TO 73...THEN HIGHS FRIDAY MOSTLY 85 TO 90...JUST A TOUCH
COOLER THAN 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD IMPLY DUE MOSTLY TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CU FOR A PERIOD THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST
EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BOTH
SETS OF GUIDANCE ALLUDE TO WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SATURDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME ON SUNDAY
WITH THE TYPICAL TIMING DIFFERENCES OUT TO THE FIFTH DAY. AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BACKING WINDS ALOFT MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST OCCUR. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE BOTH DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY BEHIND THE
TROUGH ALOFT AND UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ESPECIALLY EARLY SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW...RETAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FOR SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
STABLE AND IF THE CURRENT TREND OF CHANCES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
CONTINUES EVEN THESE SMALL CHANCES MAY EVENTUALLY BE REMOVED FROM
THE FORECAST.

1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE WARMEST SUNDAY AND THAT MAY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD BEFORE LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT
TAKE PLACE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 64 CLOSER TO
THE EXPECTED TRACK OF ANY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND AN APPROACHING
SURFACE FRONT. WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
CURRENTLY MOVE THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...LINGERING A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST.

WHILE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY EARLY
NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS...GENERAL QPF IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH
AND THEN HIGHER RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ALONG
AND EAST OF U.S. 1. THIS COULD BE...IN PART...DUE TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...AT LEAST FOR MONDAY. STILL...WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY
WITH THE FRONT AND THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE TRIAD AND CHANCES
ELSEWHERE ON THE SEVENTH DAY...HIGHER THEN TOWARD KFAY AND
KGSB...BASED ON THE EXPECTED SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM WEDNESDAY...

PATCHY SHOWERS NEAR FAY ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MEANDER ABOUT BEFORE
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE COULD
AFFECT FAY WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBY... BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL NC TAF AIRFIELDS SHOULD STAY DRY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN IN PAST MORNINGS BUT IT APPEARS THAT ALL
SITES ARE LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS PRIOR TO 12Z... AND
SUB-MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE SPARCITY OF RAINFALL
YESTERDAY. MVFR TO HIGH-END IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AT RWI
THROUGH 13Z... WITH ONLY BRIEF MVFR OR HIGH-END IFR CIGS AT
RDU/RWI... AND VFR CIGS LIKELY HOLDING AT INT/GSO. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY FROM 14Z ON THROUGH THE DAY AS CIGS LIFT AND BREAK UP
WITH MIXING... WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AT 8-12 KTS. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED OR IN SMALL CLUSTERS... AND THE
CHANCE OF THEM AFFECTING TAF SITES IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z EXCEPT
AT RWI... WHICH MAY SEE MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AFTER 03Z.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT FOG AT
RWI... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
BREEZE FROM THE SW. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS STARTING LATE MORNING
(15Z-18Z) AT INT/GSO BEFORE SPREADING EAST TO RDU DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND TO RWI/FAY DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
MAY SLOW DOWN OVER COASTAL SECTIONS THU NIGHT/FRI... KEEPING A
CHANCE OF SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON... BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI-SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE
NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY... POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS..HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...32
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 230031
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
824 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING... THE STALL WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 824 PM TUESDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY DIED OFF IN THE PAST HOUR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN REGION WHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED AT MID EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE VERY SMALL CORES WITH SOME LOCALLY INTENSE
RAINFALL. EVEN WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS... ONLY VERY
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS WERE OCCURRING WITH NO REPORTED RUNOFF PROBLEMS
YET. THE AREAS AFFECTED EXTEND FROM NEAR SOUTHERN PINES TO
FAYETTEVILLE AND FORT BRAGG EAST TO NEAR CLINTON. IT APPEARS THAT
THESE STORMS ARE AGAIN LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. EXPECT THAT WITH
INCREASING CINH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... THEY WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY
AS WELL. OTHERWISE... THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS WELL.
THIS SHOULD LEAVE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT.
LOWS GENERALLY 68-73 N TO SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A CONVENTIONAL SUMMERTIME
CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ENHANCING
LEE TROFFING OVER THE AREA. MIXING WILL BE DEEPER TO PROVIDE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS TOMORROW AS WELL...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THEIR
POTENTIAL IN THE LOW 90S. WE WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUPY AIRMASS...OF
COURSE...SO INSTABILITY WILL BE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 1.5K
JOULES...SO POPS IN THE 40 PERCENT RANGE ARE IN ORDER...GRADUATED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE WEST WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD
PROVIDE EARLIER INITIATION...AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROF AXIS.
SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL...UNIDIRECTIONAL AROUND 15 KNOTS...SO ONLY A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION
AND WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVERNIGHT. MINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD IN LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW...72-75.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM SHOW A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
TROUGH AXIS ALOFT PUSHES SLOWLY EAST. MEAN MOISTURE INCREASES
THURSDAY WITH GOOD LIFT FORECAST BY THE GFS AND THE NAM.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AT OR JUST OVER TWO INCHES
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1. DYNAMICALLY...THE GFS FORECASTS THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT 300MB JET OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY 18Z THURSDAY...AND THIS JET GRADUALLY MOVES EAST INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS BECOME MOIST AND MORE UNSTABLE DURING
THE DAY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND IT APPEARS AT LEAST GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE WARRANTED...WHICH MAY BECOME
LIKELY CHANCES OVER TIME OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. 1000-500MB LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT REALLY HIGH BUT DECENT...TO 6.8C/KM...AND AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS AT BOTH 850MB AND 925MB ARE FORECAST TO ACTUALLY DIMINISH SOME
DURING THE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...0-3KM SHEAR IS MODEST...MOSTLY
IN THE TEENS KNOTS TO AROUND 20KT TOWARD THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THE
BEST CAPE AROUND 18Z IS FORECAST BY THE GFS JUST WEST OF U.S. 1...
AROUND 900J/KG...SHIFTING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BETTER
DOWNDRAFT CAPE CERTAINLY BETTER EAST OF U.S. 1. GIVEN A COMBINATION
OF THESE MODEST PARAMETER VALUES...SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DUE TO WIND IS
A REASONABLE FORECAST. IN A RELATIVE SENSE...THE BETTER CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL WIND. THERE APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH WIND AND SHEAR THAT STORMS SHOULD MOVE...POSING A LOCAL
FLOOD THREAT TO THE TYPICAL URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS WHERE
LOCAL TRAINING COULD OCCUR. 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES ARE LOW AND
ACTUALLY GET LOWER...INTO THE LOWER DOUBLE DIGITS...DURING THE DAY.

THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH CLEARING AND INCREASING STABILITY
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT NOT GREATLY SO...SUCH
THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOULD
WANE IN THE TRIAD BY 03Z...BY 06Z TOWARD KRDU...AND BY 09Z TOWARD
INTERSTATE 95. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLEARING...WITH THE
WEAKENING FRONT MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS
OF FOG OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...BUT THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS DEPENDENT ON
THE OVERALL DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN
THE FORECAST CURRENTLY. ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT
SHOULD START TO GET HUNG UP NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER AND
TOWARD THE COAST...BUFR SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS BECOME
FAIRLY STABLE TO DEEP CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...WITH VALUES APPROACHING AN INCH IN THE TRIAD
BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST MINIMAL QPF
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING MOISTURE...
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO PROVIDE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OUTSIDE
THE TRIAD...WHERE IT JUST SEEMS TOO STABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE QUITE HIGH MOISTURE AROUND
850MB WHILE THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT LESS...AND BLENDING THEM SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF GOOD CU IN MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
FOR A TIME FRIDAY ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE TRIAD. HIGHS THURSDAY
MOSTLY A BLEND OF MOS...LEANING COOLER TOWARD THE TRIAD AND HIGHER
TOWARD I-95 FOR VALUES FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT 67 TO 73...THEN HIGHS FRIDAY MOSTLY 85 TO 90...JUST A TOUCH
COOLER THAN 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD IMPLY DUE MOSTLY TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CU FOR A PERIOD THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST
EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BOTH
SETS OF GUIDANCE ALLUDE TO WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SATURDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME ON SUNDAY
WITH THE TYPICAL TIMING DIFFERENCES OUT TO THE FIFTH DAY. AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BACKING WINDS ALOFT MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST OCCUR. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE BOTH DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY BEHIND THE
TROUGH ALOFT AND UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ESPECIALLY EARLY SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW...RETAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FOR SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
STABLE AND IF THE CURRENT TREND OF CHANCES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
CONTINUES EVEN THESE SMALL CHANCES MAY EVENTUALLY BE REMOVED FROM
THE FORECAST.

1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE WARMEST SUNDAY AND THAT MAY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD BEFORE LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT
TAKE PLACE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 64 CLOSER TO
THE EXPECTED TRACK OF ANY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND AN APPROACHING
SURFACE FRONT. WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
CURRENTLY MOVE THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...LINGERING A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST.

WHILE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY EARLY
NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS...GENERAL QPF IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH
AND THEN HIGHER RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ALONG
AND EAST OF U.S. 1. THIS COULD BE...IN PART...DUE TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...AT LEAST FOR MONDAY. STILL...WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY
WITH THE FRONT AND THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE TRIAD AND CHANCES
ELSEWHERE ON THE SEVENTH DAY...HIGHER THEN TOWARD KFAY AND
KGSB...BASED ON THE EXPECTED SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM TUESDAY...

CURRENT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
AND WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THEN...CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND IFR TO
LIFR CIGS LIKELY AFTER 08Z. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONDITIONS
WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS LAST NIGHT (ESPECIALLY VSBYS) SINCE MANY
LOCATIONS DID NOT RECEIVE RAINFALL TODAY. REGARDLESS...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.
THEN...ANOTHER AFTERNOON/EVENING OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH TRYING TO PINPOINT EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT.

OUTLOOK...THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY LINGER OVER (OR NEAR) THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS..32
NEAR TERM...32
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 230019
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
819 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE COAST WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SLOWING AND
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY FRIDAY. THE WEAK
FRONT THEN LINGERS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER AND THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

SHOWER COVERAGE WAS LIMITED BY THE LACK OF FORCING AND MINIMAL UPPER
SUPPORT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE ONGOING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH AS THE EVENING SETS IN...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
TO MIGRATE WEST INTO THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THE
RETROGRESSING COASTAL TROF WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF EXTRA IMPETUS WITH
MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MINS WILL BE PERSISTENCE FROM LAST NIGHT...
70-72.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A CONVENTIONAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
PATTERN WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ENHANCING LEE TROFFING OVER
THE AREA. MIXING WILL BE DEEPER TO PROVIDE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TOMORROW
AS WELL...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THEIR POTENTIAL IN THE LOW 90S. WE WILL
REMAIN IN THE SOUPY AIRMASS...OF COURSE...SO INSTABILITY WILL BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 1.5K JOULES...SO POPS IN THE 40 PERCENT RANGE ARE IN
ORDER...GRADUATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE WEST WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
SHOULD PROVIDE EARLIER INITIATION...AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROF AXIS.
SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL...UNIDIRECTIONAL AROUND 15 KNOTS...SO ONLY A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT. CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION AND WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVERNIGHT. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE MILD IN LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW...72-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM SHOW A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
TROUGH AXIS ALOFT PUSHES SLOWLY EAST. MEAN MOISTURE INCREASES
THURSDAY WITH GOOD LIFT FORECAST BY THE GFS AND THE NAM.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AT OR JUST OVER TWO INCHES
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1. DYNAMICALLY...THE GFS FORECASTS THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT 300MB JET OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY 18Z THURSDAY...AND THIS JET GRADUALLY MOVES EAST INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS BECOME MOIST AND MORE UNSTABLE DURING
THE DAY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND IT APPEARS AT LEAST GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE WARRANTED...WHICH MAY BECOME
LIKELY CHANCES OVER TIME OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. 1000-500MB LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT REALLY HIGH BUT DECENT...TO 6.8C/KM...AND AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS AT BOTH 850MB AND 925MB ARE FORECAST TO ACTUALLY DIMINISH SOME
DURING THE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...0-3KM SHEAR IS MODEST...MOSTLY
IN THE TEENS KNOTS TO AROUND 20KT TOWARD THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THE
BEST CAPE AROUND 18Z IS FORECAST BY THE GFS JUST WEST OF U.S. 1...
AROUND 900J/KG...SHIFTING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BETTER
DOWNDRAFT CAPE CERTAINLY BETTER EAST OF U.S. 1. GIVEN A COMBINATION
OF THESE MODEST PARAMETER VALUES...SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DUE TO WIND IS
A REASONABLE FORECAST. IN A RELATIVE SENSE...THE BETTER CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL WIND. THERE APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH WIND AND SHEAR THAT STORMS SHOULD MOVE...POSING A LOCAL
FLOOD THREAT TO THE TYPICAL URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS WHERE
LOCAL TRAINING COULD OCCUR. 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES ARE LOW AND
ACTUALLY GET LOWER...INTO THE LOWER DOUBLE DIGITS...DURING THE DAY.

THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH CLEARING AND INCREASING STABILITY
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT NOT GREATLY SO...SUCH
THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOULD
WANE IN THE TRIAD BY 03Z...BY 06Z TOWARD KRDU...AND BY 09Z TOWARD
INTERSTATE 95. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLEARING...WITH THE
WEAKENING FRONT MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS
OF FOG OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...BUT THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS DEPENDENT ON
THE OVERALL DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN
THE FORECAST CURRENTLY. ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT
SHOULD START TO GET HUNG UP NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER AND
TOWARD THE COAST...BUFR SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS BECOME
FAIRLY STABLE TO DEEP CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...WITH VALUES APPROACHING AN INCH IN THE TRIAD
BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST MINIMAL QPF
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING MOISTURE...
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO PROVIDE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OUTSIDE
THE TRIAD...WHERE IT JUST SEEMS TOO STABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE QUITE HIGH MOISTURE AROUND
850MB WHILE THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT LESS...AND BLENDING THEM SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF GOOD CU IN MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
FOR A TIME FRIDAY ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE TRIAD. HIGHS THURSDAY
MOSTLY A BLEND OF MOS...LEANING COOLER TOWARD THE TRIAD AND HIGHER
TOWARD I-95 FOR VALUES FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT 67 TO 73...THEN HIGHS FRIDAY MOSTLY 85 TO 90...JUST A TOUCH
COOLER THAN 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD IMPLY DUE MOSTLY TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CU FOR A PERIOD THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST
EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BOTH
SETS OF GUIDANCE ALLUDE TO WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SATURDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME ON SUNDAY
WITH THE TYPICAL TIMING DIFFERENCES OUT TO THE FIFTH DAY. AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BACKING WINDS ALOFT MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST OCCUR. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE BOTH DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY BEHIND THE
TROUGH ALOFT AND UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ESPECIALLY EARLY SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW...RETAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FOR SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
STABLE AND IF THE CURRENT TREND OF CHANCES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
CONTINUES EVEN THESE SMALL CHANCES MAY EVENTUALLY BE REMOVED FROM
THE FORECAST.

1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE WARMEST SUNDAY AND THAT MAY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD BEFORE LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT
TAKE PLACE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 64 CLOSER TO
THE EXPECTED TRACK OF ANY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND AN APPROACHING
SURFACE FRONT. WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
CURRENTLY MOVE THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...LINGERING A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST.

WHILE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY EARLY
NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS...GENERAL QPF IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH
AND THEN HIGHER RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ALONG
AND EAST OF U.S. 1. THIS COULD BE...IN PART...DUE TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...AT LEAST FOR MONDAY. STILL...WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY
WITH THE FRONT AND THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE TRIAD AND CHANCES
ELSEWHERE ON THE SEVENTH DAY...HIGHER THEN TOWARD KFAY AND
KGSB...BASED ON THE EXPECTED SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM TUESDAY...

CURRENT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
AND WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THEN...CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND IFR TO
LIFR CIGS LIKELY AFTER 08Z. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONDITIONS
WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS LAST NIGHT (ESPECIALLY VSBYS) SINCE MANY
LOCATIONS DID NOT RECEIVE RAINFALL TODAY. REGARDLESS...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.
THEN...ANOTHER AFTERNOON/EVENING OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH TRYING TO PINPOINT EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT.

OUTLOOK...THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY LINGER OVER (OR NEAR) THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 221910
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE COAST WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SLOWING AND
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY FRIDAY. THE WEAK
FRONT THEN LINGERS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER AND THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

SHOWER CONVERAGE WAS LIMITED BY THE LACK OF FORCING AND MINIMAL UPPER
SUPPORT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE ONGOING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH AS THE EVENING SETS IN...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
TO MIGRATE WEST INTO THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THE
RETROGRESSING COASTAL TROF WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF EXTRA IMPETUS WITH
MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MINS WILL BE PERSISTENCE FROM LAST NIGHT...
70-72.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A CONVENTIONAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
PATTERN WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ENHANCING LEE TROFFING OVER
THE AREA. MIXING WILL BE DEEPER TO PROVIDE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TOMORROW
AS WELL...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THEIR POTENTIAL IN THE LOW 90S. WE WILL
REMAIN IN THE SOUPY AIRMASS...OF COURSE...SO INSTABILITY WILL BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 1.5K JOULES...SO POPS IN THE 40 PERCENT RANGE ARE IN
ORDER...GRADUATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE WEST WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
SHOULD PROVIDE EARLIER INITIATION...AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROF AXIS.
SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL...UNIDIRECTIONAL AROUND 15 KNOTS...SO ONLY A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT. CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION AND WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVERNIGHT. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE MILD IN LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW...72-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM SHOW A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
TROUGH AXIS ALOFT PUSHES SLOWLY EAST. MEAN MOISTURE INCREASES
THURSDAY WITH GOOD LIFT FORECAST BY THE GFS AND THE NAM.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AT OR JUST OVER TWO INCHES
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1. DYNAMICALLY...THE GFS FORECASTS THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT 300MB JET OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY 18Z THURSDAY...AND THIS JET GRADUALLY MOVES EAST INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS BECOME MOIST AND MORE UNSTABLE DURING
THE DAY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND IT APPEARS AT LEAST GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE WARRANTED...WHICH MAY BECOME
LIKELY CHANCES OVER TIME OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. 1000-500MB LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT REALLY HIGH BUT DECENT...TO 6.8C/KM...AND AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS AT BOTH 850MB AND 925MB ARE FORECAST TO ACTUALLY DIMINISH SOME
DURING THE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...0-3KM SHEAR IS MODEST...MOSTLY
IN THE TEENS KNOTS TO AROUND 20KT TOWARD THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THE
BEST CAPE AROUND 18Z IS FORECAST BY THE GFS JUST WEST OF U.S. 1...
AROUND 900J/KG...SHIFTING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BETTER
DOWNDRAFT CAPE CERTAINLY BETTER EAST OF U.S. 1. GIVEN A COMBINATION
OF THESE MODEST PARAMETER VALUES...SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DUE TO WIND IS
A REASONABLE FORECAST. IN A RELATIVE SENSE...THE BETTER CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL WIND. THERE APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH WIND AND SHEAR THAT STORMS SHOULD MOVE...POSING A LOCAL
FLOOD THREAT TO THE TYPICAL URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS WHERE
LOCAL TRAINING COULD OCCUR. 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES ARE LOW AND
ACTUALLY GET LOWER...INTO THE LOWER DOUBLE DIGITS...DURING THE DAY.

THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH CLEARING AND INCREASING STABILITY
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT NOT GREATLY SO...SUCH
THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOULD
WANE IN THE TRIAD BY 03Z...BY 06Z TOWARD KRDU...AND BY 09Z TOWARD
INTERSTATE 95. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLEARING...WITH THE
WEAKENING FRONT MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS
OF FOG OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...BUT THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS DEPENDENT ON
THE OVERALL DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN
THE FORECAST CURRENTLY. ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT
SHOULD START TO GET HUNG UP NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER AND
TOWARD THE COAST...BUFR SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS BECOME
FAIRLY STABLE TO DEEP CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...WITH VALUES APPROACHING AN INCH IN THE TRIAD
BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST MINIMAL QPF
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING MOISTURE...
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO PROVIDE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OUTSIDE
THE TRIAD...WHERE IT JUST SEEMS TOO STABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE QUITE HIGH MOISTURE AROUND
850MB WHILE THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT LESS...AND BLENDING THEM SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF GOOD CU IN MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
FOR A TIME FRIDAY ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE TRIAD. HIGHS THURSDAY
MOSTLY A BLEND OF MOS...LEANING COOLER TOWARD THE TRIAD AND HIGHER
TOWARD I-95 FOR VALUES FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT 67 TO 73...THEN HIGHS FRIDAY MOSTLY 85 TO 90...JUST A TOUCH
COOLER THAN 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD IMPLY DUE MOSTLY TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CU FOR A PERIOD THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST
EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BOTH
SETS OF GUIDANCE ALLUDE TO WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SATURDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME ON SUNDAY
WITH THE TYPICAL TIMING DIFFERENCES OUT TO THE FIFTH DAY. AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BACKING WINDS ALOFT MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST OCCUR. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE BOTH DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY BEHIND THE
TROUGH ALOFT AND UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ESPECIALLY EARLY SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW...RETAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FOR SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
STABLE AND IF THE CURRENT TREND OF CHANCES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
CONTINUES EVEN THESE SMALL CHANCES MAY EVENTUALLY BE REMOVED FROM
THE FORECAST.

1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE WARMEST SUNDAY AND THAT MAY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD BEFORE LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT
TAKE PLACE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 64 CLOSER TO
THE EXPECTED TRACK OF ANY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND AN APPROACHING
SURFACE FRONT. WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
CURRENTLY MOVE THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...LINGERING A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST.

WHILE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY EARLY
NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS...GENERAL QPF IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH
AND THEN HIGHER RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ALONG
AND EAST OF U.S. 1. THIS COULD BE...IN PART...DUE TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...AT LEAST FOR MONDAY. STILL...WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY
WITH THE FRONT AND THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE TRIAD AND CHANCES
ELSEWHERE ON THE SEVENTH DAY...HIGHER THEN TOWARD KFAY AND
KGSB...BASED ON THE EXPECTED SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD...SPOTTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WANING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR EXCEPT FOR MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR IN THE VICINITY OF
CONVECTION. A TYPICAL BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CIGS AND VSBY
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE 08-13Z TIME FRAME...EXCEPT THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BE LOWER AND DEVELOP A COUPLE OF HOURS SOONER AT SITES THAT RECEIVE RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MORE UNIFORMLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW...BUT STILL
LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. AGAIN EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION...
MAINLY AFTER 18Z...WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE WEST...
GSO/INT...AND AT FAY WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE EAST...
RWI/FAY...INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...MLM




000
FXUS62 KRAH 221910
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE COAST WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SLOWING AND
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY FRIDAY. THE WEAK
FRONT THEN LINGERS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER AND THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

SHOWER CONVERAGE WAS LIMITED BY THE LACK OF FORCING AND MINIMAL UPPER
SUPPORT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE ONGOING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH AS THE EVENING SETS IN...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
TO MIGRATE WEST INTO THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THE
RETROGRESSING COASTAL TROF WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF EXTRA IMPETUS WITH
MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MINS WILL BE PERSISTENCE FROM LAST NIGHT...
70-72.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A CONVENTIONAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
PATTERN WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ENHANCING LEE TROFFING OVER
THE AREA. MIXING WILL BE DEEPER TO PROVIDE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TOMORROW
AS WELL...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THEIR POTENTIAL IN THE LOW 90S. WE WILL
REMAIN IN THE SOUPY AIRMASS...OF COURSE...SO INSTABILITY WILL BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE...AROUND 1.5K JOULES...SO POPS IN THE 40 PERCENT RANGE ARE IN
ORDER...GRADUATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE WEST WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
SHOULD PROVIDE EARLIER INITIATION...AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROF AXIS.
SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL...UNIDIRECTIONAL AROUND 15 KNOTS...SO ONLY A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT. CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION AND WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVERNIGHT. MINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE MILD IN LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW...72-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM SHOW A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
TROUGH AXIS ALOFT PUSHES SLOWLY EAST. MEAN MOISTURE INCREASES
THURSDAY WITH GOOD LIFT FORECAST BY THE GFS AND THE NAM.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AT OR JUST OVER TWO INCHES
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1. DYNAMICALLY...THE GFS FORECASTS THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60KT 300MB JET OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY 18Z THURSDAY...AND THIS JET GRADUALLY MOVES EAST INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS BECOME MOIST AND MORE UNSTABLE DURING
THE DAY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND IT APPEARS AT LEAST GOOD CHANCE
POPS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE WARRANTED...WHICH MAY BECOME
LIKELY CHANCES OVER TIME OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. 1000-500MB LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT REALLY HIGH BUT DECENT...TO 6.8C/KM...AND AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS AT BOTH 850MB AND 925MB ARE FORECAST TO ACTUALLY DIMINISH SOME
DURING THE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST...0-3KM SHEAR IS MODEST...MOSTLY
IN THE TEENS KNOTS TO AROUND 20KT TOWARD THE VIRGINIA BORDER. THE
BEST CAPE AROUND 18Z IS FORECAST BY THE GFS JUST WEST OF U.S. 1...
AROUND 900J/KG...SHIFTING EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BETTER
DOWNDRAFT CAPE CERTAINLY BETTER EAST OF U.S. 1. GIVEN A COMBINATION
OF THESE MODEST PARAMETER VALUES...SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DUE TO WIND IS
A REASONABLE FORECAST. IN A RELATIVE SENSE...THE BETTER CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL WIND. THERE APPEARS
TO BE ENOUGH WIND AND SHEAR THAT STORMS SHOULD MOVE...POSING A LOCAL
FLOOD THREAT TO THE TYPICAL URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS WHERE
LOCAL TRAINING COULD OCCUR. 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES ARE LOW AND
ACTUALLY GET LOWER...INTO THE LOWER DOUBLE DIGITS...DURING THE DAY.

THE NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH CLEARING AND INCREASING STABILITY
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT NOT GREATLY SO...SUCH
THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOULD
WANE IN THE TRIAD BY 03Z...BY 06Z TOWARD KRDU...AND BY 09Z TOWARD
INTERSTATE 95. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLEARING...WITH THE
WEAKENING FRONT MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS
OF FOG OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...BUT THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS DEPENDENT ON
THE OVERALL DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN
THE FORECAST CURRENTLY. ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT
SHOULD START TO GET HUNG UP NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER AND
TOWARD THE COAST...BUFR SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS BECOME
FAIRLY STABLE TO DEEP CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...WITH VALUES APPROACHING AN INCH IN THE TRIAD
BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST MINIMAL QPF
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING MOISTURE...
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO PROVIDE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OUTSIDE
THE TRIAD...WHERE IT JUST SEEMS TOO STABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE QUITE HIGH MOISTURE AROUND
850MB WHILE THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT LESS...AND BLENDING THEM SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF GOOD CU IN MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
FOR A TIME FRIDAY ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE TRIAD. HIGHS THURSDAY
MOSTLY A BLEND OF MOS...LEANING COOLER TOWARD THE TRIAD AND HIGHER
TOWARD I-95 FOR VALUES FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT 67 TO 73...THEN HIGHS FRIDAY MOSTLY 85 TO 90...JUST A TOUCH
COOLER THAN 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD IMPLY DUE MOSTLY TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CU FOR A PERIOD THEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST
EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BOTH
SETS OF GUIDANCE ALLUDE TO WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SATURDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOMETIME ON SUNDAY
WITH THE TYPICAL TIMING DIFFERENCES OUT TO THE FIFTH DAY. AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BACKING WINDS ALOFT MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST OCCUR. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE BOTH DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY BEHIND THE
TROUGH ALOFT AND UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ESPECIALLY EARLY SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW...RETAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FOR SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
STABLE AND IF THE CURRENT TREND OF CHANCES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
CONTINUES EVEN THESE SMALL CHANCES MAY EVENTUALLY BE REMOVED FROM
THE FORECAST.

1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE WARMEST SUNDAY AND THAT MAY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD BEFORE LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT
TAKE PLACE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 64 CLOSER TO
THE EXPECTED TRACK OF ANY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND AN APPROACHING
SURFACE FRONT. WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
CURRENTLY MOVE THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...LINGERING A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST.

WHILE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY EARLY
NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS...GENERAL QPF IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH
AND THEN HIGHER RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ALONG
AND EAST OF U.S. 1. THIS COULD BE...IN PART...DUE TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...AT LEAST FOR MONDAY. STILL...WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY
WITH THE FRONT AND THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE TRIAD AND CHANCES
ELSEWHERE ON THE SEVENTH DAY...HIGHER THEN TOWARD KFAY AND
KGSB...BASED ON THE EXPECTED SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD...SPOTTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WANING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR EXCEPT FOR MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR IN THE VICINITY OF
CONVECTION. A TYPICAL BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CIGS AND VSBY
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE 08-13Z TIME FRAME...EXCEPT THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BE LOWER AND DEVELOP A COUPLE OF HOURS SOONER AT SITES THAT RECEIVE RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MORE UNIFORMLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW...BUT STILL
LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. AGAIN EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION...
MAINLY AFTER 18Z...WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE WEST...
GSO/INT...AND AT FAY WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE EAST...
RWI/FAY...INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...MLM





000
FXUS62 KRAH 221814
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
215 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE COAST WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SLOWING AND
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY FRIDAY. THE WEAK
FRONT THEN LINGERS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER AND THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...

UPDATE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP...WITH THE
VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH THE PLUME OF 2.0 PRECIPITABLE WATER
MAINTAINING ITS GULF AND ATLANTIC FEEDS. DIURNAL HEATING WOULD BE
CONDUCIVE TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...IF...IF WE HAD SOME
MODEST LOW LEVEL FORCING/CONVERGENCE TO UTILIZE THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ONLY WEAKLY CONVERGENT EAST OF THE
AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL TROF. THE UPPER LOW HAS SETTLED
IN THE DELTA REGION AS EXPECTED...AND MID LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE
LESS ROBUST TODAY AS WELL. SHOULD SEE DECENT COVERAGE...BUT THE LACK
OF MID AND UPPER SUPPORT SUGGEST FEWER THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL THUS
ADJUST WEATEHR GRIDS TO REFLECT WORDING FAVORING SHOWERS. TEMPS ARE
ON TRACK TO REACH MID 80S...AND COULD SEE SOME UPPER 80S IN THE EAST
IF INSOLATION PERSISTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DECENT
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WITHIN A MOIST AND VOLATILE AIR MASS... WITH
ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. LATEST SURFACE
MAP SHOWS THE FRONTAL ZONE WINDING AROUND THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
STATES AND ACROSS COASTAL NC... LEADING TO A VERY LIGHT FLOW FROM
THE NE OR E INTO NC. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC-SOURCE
MOISTURE PUMPING INTO THE AREA... AND ALOFT AS WELL AS THE DAMP
SURGE EAST AND NORTH OF THE GULF COAST LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY... DRAWING IN DEEPER MOISTURE OFF FL AND THE BAHAMAS.
GOES SOUNDER PW VALUES ARE WIDESPREAD 2.0-2.5 OVER NC (HIGHEST
ACROSS SRN NC)... AND WHILE THE BLENDED TPW AND GSO UA VALUES ARE A
BIT LOWER THEY`RE STILL 120-150% OF NORMAL. MODELS SHOW THE HIGHER
PW CONTINUE TO SURGE TO THE WNW INTO CENTRAL NC ON THE CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SE AND E TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BEST
COVERAGE COULD HOLD OVER ERN NC AS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL HOLD EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY... ALONG AND EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. BUT THIS
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY IN FAVOR OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH AS
THE OFFSHORE RIDGE BECOMES A BIT MORE DOMINANT WITH THE WESTWARD
NUDGE OF THE GULF UPPER LOW... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP
LCL-0C LAYER SUPPORTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND HIGH PRECIP
EFFICIENCY. WILL TAKE POPS UP TO 50-60%... SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH
FIRST THEN TOWARD THE NNW. COVERAGE SHOULD TAPER DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY
TO ISOLATED DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A
GREATER WESTERLY COMPONENT. WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK... GIVEN THE HIGH-PW AND HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY COUPLED WITH
THE ALREADY-WET GROUND MOST PLACES. MBE MOVEMENT SHOULD BE A BIT
GREATER THAN MONDAY... BUT WITH WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS... SOME
SLOWER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS COULD STILL DROP HIGH RAIN TOTALS.
HOWEVER... OVERALL LOW COVERAGE OF THESE HIGHER TOTALS HOWEVER
PRECLUDE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HIGHS 83-88. LOWS
TONIGHT 71-75 WITH MORE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PIEDMONT
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING TOWARD THE SSE OVER THE OH
VALLEY... AS 850 MB FLOW BECOMES MAINLY WESTERLY. WE`LL SEE
IMPROVING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE BROAD TROUGH DIGS OVER ERN
CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST WITH THE WESTERLIES INCHING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD NC... PROMPTING DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT OF 20-50
M. EXPECT REDUCED CLOUDINESS ON WED AS WE LOSE THE TAP OF DEEPER
BAHAMIAN MOISTURE WITH MID LEVELS EXHIBITING MINOR DRYING... AND
THIS SHOULD NOT ONLY PUSH UP TEMPS (THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
5-8 M HIGHER WED THAN TODAY) BUT SHOULD ALSO PUSH UP INSTABILITY...
AND THE SREF MEAN MLCAPE WED IS 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MODEST HOWEVER... JUST AROUND 15-20 KTS AT
MOST... BUT NEVERTHELESS EXPECT A BIT MORE ORGANIZED SCATTERED
STORMS TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP POPS AS CHANCE... FOCUSED ON THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGHS 89-93. STICKY LOWS OF 71-75 WED NIGHT...
WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AS WE MAINTAIN
MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. -GIH

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE INITIAL
SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES NC WILL BE SITUATED UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND FORECASTS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5 C/KM. THE BEST INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCAPE AND MLCAPE VALUES FORECAST
FROM 1000 J/KG IN THE NW TO 2500 J/KG ALONG THE NC COAST. BULK SHEAR
IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE DESCENT TO GOOD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
AND SE...WITH VALUES OF 25 TO 35 KTS...SUPPORTING MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STORM TO BECOME SEVERE...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. THUS...
EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT ON THURSDAY GIVEN THE PWAT VALUES AROUND
2 INCHES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NW TO LOW 90S SE AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

FRIDAY: THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL
NC THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT FOR FRIDAY.
IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW FAR THE COOLER AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SIT ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST FRIDAY. REGARDLESS...HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER 80S. GIVEN THE LINGERING SFC LOW
ALONG THE COAST AND THE FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF NC/VA...
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. PWATS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY FRIDAY...DOWN TO AROUND 1.00 TO 1.20 INCHES BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...

THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BOTH SETS OF GUIDANCE ALLUDE TO WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING SATURDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOMETIME ON SUNDAY WITH THE TYPICAL TIMING DIFFERENCES OUT
TO THE FIFTH DAY. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...BACKING WINDS ALOFT MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OCCUR. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH ALOFT AND UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ESPECIALLY EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...RETAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE STABLE AND IF THE CURRENT
TREND OF CHANCES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY CONTINUES EVEN THESE SMALL
CHANCES MAY EVENTUALLY BE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.

1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE WARMEST SUNDAY AND THAT MAY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD BEFORE LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT
TAKE PLACE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 64 CLOSER TO
THE EXPECTED TRACK OF ANY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND AN APPROACHING
SURFACE FRONT. WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
CURRENTLY MOVE THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...LINGERING A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST.

WHILE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY EARLY
NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS...GENERAL QPF IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH
AND THEN HIGHER RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ALONG
AND EAST OF U.S. 1. THIS COULD BE...IN PART...DUE TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...AT LEAST FOR MONDAY. STILL...WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY
WITH THE FRONT AND THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE TRIAD AND CHANCES
ELSEWHERE ON THE SEVENTH DAY...HIGHER THEN TOWARD KFAY AND
KGSB...BASED ON THE EXPECTED SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD...SPOTTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WANING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR EXCEPT FOR MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR IN THE VICINITY OF
CONVECTION. A TYPICAL BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CIGS AND VSBY
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE 08-13Z TIME FRAME...EXCEPT THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BE LOWER AND DEVELOP A COUPLE OF HOURS SOONER AT SITES THAT RECEIVE RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MORE UNIFORMLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW...BUT STILL
LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. AGAIN EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION...
MAINLY AFTER 18Z...WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE WEST...
GSO/INT...AND AT FAY WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE EAST...
RWI/FAY...INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...MLM/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD/KC
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...MLM





000
FXUS62 KRAH 221814
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
215 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE COAST WEAKENS OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SLOWING AND
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY FRIDAY. THE WEAK
FRONT THEN LINGERS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER AND THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...

UPDATE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP...WITH THE
VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH THE PLUME OF 2.0 PRECIPITABLE WATER
MAINTAINING ITS GULF AND ATLANTIC FEEDS. DIURNAL HEATING WOULD BE
CONDUCIVE TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...IF...IF WE HAD SOME
MODEST LOW LEVEL FORCING/CONVERGENCE TO UTILIZE THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ONLY WEAKLY CONVERGENT EAST OF THE
AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL TROF. THE UPPER LOW HAS SETTLED
IN THE DELTA REGION AS EXPECTED...AND MID LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE
LESS ROBUST TODAY AS WELL. SHOULD SEE DECENT COVERAGE...BUT THE LACK
OF MID AND UPPER SUPPORT SUGGEST FEWER THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL THUS
ADJUST WEATEHR GRIDS TO REFLECT WORDING FAVORING SHOWERS. TEMPS ARE
ON TRACK TO REACH MID 80S...AND COULD SEE SOME UPPER 80S IN THE EAST
IF INSOLATION PERSISTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DECENT
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WITHIN A MOIST AND VOLATILE AIR MASS... WITH
ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. LATEST SURFACE
MAP SHOWS THE FRONTAL ZONE WINDING AROUND THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
STATES AND ACROSS COASTAL NC... LEADING TO A VERY LIGHT FLOW FROM
THE NE OR E INTO NC. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC-SOURCE
MOISTURE PUMPING INTO THE AREA... AND ALOFT AS WELL AS THE DAMP
SURGE EAST AND NORTH OF THE GULF COAST LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY... DRAWING IN DEEPER MOISTURE OFF FL AND THE BAHAMAS.
GOES SOUNDER PW VALUES ARE WIDESPREAD 2.0-2.5 OVER NC (HIGHEST
ACROSS SRN NC)... AND WHILE THE BLENDED TPW AND GSO UA VALUES ARE A
BIT LOWER THEY`RE STILL 120-150% OF NORMAL. MODELS SHOW THE HIGHER
PW CONTINUE TO SURGE TO THE WNW INTO CENTRAL NC ON THE CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SE AND E TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BEST
COVERAGE COULD HOLD OVER ERN NC AS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL HOLD EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY... ALONG AND EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. BUT THIS
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY IN FAVOR OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH AS
THE OFFSHORE RIDGE BECOMES A BIT MORE DOMINANT WITH THE WESTWARD
NUDGE OF THE GULF UPPER LOW... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP
LCL-0C LAYER SUPPORTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND HIGH PRECIP
EFFICIENCY. WILL TAKE POPS UP TO 50-60%... SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH
FIRST THEN TOWARD THE NNW. COVERAGE SHOULD TAPER DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY
TO ISOLATED DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A
GREATER WESTERLY COMPONENT. WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK... GIVEN THE HIGH-PW AND HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY COUPLED WITH
THE ALREADY-WET GROUND MOST PLACES. MBE MOVEMENT SHOULD BE A BIT
GREATER THAN MONDAY... BUT WITH WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS... SOME
SLOWER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS COULD STILL DROP HIGH RAIN TOTALS.
HOWEVER... OVERALL LOW COVERAGE OF THESE HIGHER TOTALS HOWEVER
PRECLUDE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HIGHS 83-88. LOWS
TONIGHT 71-75 WITH MORE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PIEDMONT
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING TOWARD THE SSE OVER THE OH
VALLEY... AS 850 MB FLOW BECOMES MAINLY WESTERLY. WE`LL SEE
IMPROVING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE BROAD TROUGH DIGS OVER ERN
CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST WITH THE WESTERLIES INCHING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD NC... PROMPTING DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT OF 20-50
M. EXPECT REDUCED CLOUDINESS ON WED AS WE LOSE THE TAP OF DEEPER
BAHAMIAN MOISTURE WITH MID LEVELS EXHIBITING MINOR DRYING... AND
THIS SHOULD NOT ONLY PUSH UP TEMPS (THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
5-8 M HIGHER WED THAN TODAY) BUT SHOULD ALSO PUSH UP INSTABILITY...
AND THE SREF MEAN MLCAPE WED IS 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MODEST HOWEVER... JUST AROUND 15-20 KTS AT
MOST... BUT NEVERTHELESS EXPECT A BIT MORE ORGANIZED SCATTERED
STORMS TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP POPS AS CHANCE... FOCUSED ON THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGHS 89-93. STICKY LOWS OF 71-75 WED NIGHT...
WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AS WE MAINTAIN
MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. -GIH

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE INITIAL
SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES NC WILL BE SITUATED UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND FORECASTS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5 C/KM. THE BEST INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCAPE AND MLCAPE VALUES FORECAST
FROM 1000 J/KG IN THE NW TO 2500 J/KG ALONG THE NC COAST. BULK SHEAR
IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE DESCENT TO GOOD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
AND SE...WITH VALUES OF 25 TO 35 KTS...SUPPORTING MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STORM TO BECOME SEVERE...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. THUS...
EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT ON THURSDAY GIVEN THE PWAT VALUES AROUND
2 INCHES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NW TO LOW 90S SE AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

FRIDAY: THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL
NC THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT FOR FRIDAY.
IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW FAR THE COOLER AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SIT ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST FRIDAY. REGARDLESS...HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER 80S. GIVEN THE LINGERING SFC LOW
ALONG THE COAST AND THE FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF NC/VA...
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. PWATS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY FRIDAY...DOWN TO AROUND 1.00 TO 1.20 INCHES BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...

THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BOTH SETS OF GUIDANCE ALLUDE TO WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING SATURDAY NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOMETIME ON SUNDAY WITH THE TYPICAL TIMING DIFFERENCES OUT
TO THE FIFTH DAY. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...BACKING WINDS ALOFT MORE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OCCUR. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH ALOFT AND UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ESPECIALLY EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...RETAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FOR
SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE STABLE AND IF THE CURRENT
TREND OF CHANCES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY CONTINUES EVEN THESE SMALL
CHANCES MAY EVENTUALLY BE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.

1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE WARMEST SUNDAY AND THAT MAY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD BEFORE LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT
TAKE PLACE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SUNDAY
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 64 CLOSER TO
THE EXPECTED TRACK OF ANY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND AN APPROACHING
SURFACE FRONT. WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
CURRENTLY MOVE THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...LINGERING A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST.

WHILE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY EARLY
NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS...GENERAL QPF IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH
AND THEN HIGHER RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ALONG
AND EAST OF U.S. 1. THIS COULD BE...IN PART...DUE TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...AT LEAST FOR MONDAY. STILL...WILL FORECAST A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY
WITH THE FRONT AND THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE TRIAD AND CHANCES
ELSEWHERE ON THE SEVENTH DAY...HIGHER THEN TOWARD KFAY AND
KGSB...BASED ON THE EXPECTED SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION AND THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD...SPOTTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WANING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR EXCEPT FOR MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR IN THE VICINITY OF
CONVECTION. A TYPICAL BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CIGS AND VSBY
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE 08-13Z TIME FRAME...EXCEPT THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BE LOWER AND DEVELOP A COUPLE OF HOURS SOONER AT SITES THAT RECEIVE RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MORE UNIFORMLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW...BUT STILL
LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. AGAIN EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION...
MAINLY AFTER 18Z...WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE WEST...
GSO/INT...AND AT FAY WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE EAST...
RWI/FAY...INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...MLM/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD/KC
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...MLM




000
FXUS62 KRAH 221739
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...MAINTAINING A MOIST FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY... THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...

UPDATE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP...WITH THE
VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH THE PLUME OF 2.0 PRECIPITABLE WATER
MAINTAINING ITS GULF AND ATLANTIC FEEDS. DIURNAL HEATING WOULD BE
CONDUCIVE TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...IF...IF WE HAD SOME
MODEST LOW LEVEL FORCING/CONVERGENCE TO UTILIZE THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ONLY WEAKLY CONVERGENT EAST OF THE
AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL TROF. THE UPPER LOW HAS SETTLED
IN THE DELTA REGION AS EXPECTED...AND MID LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE
LESS ROBUST TODAY AS WELL. SHOULD SEE DECENT COVERAGE...BUT THE LACK
OF MID AND UPPER SUPPORT SUGGEST FEWER THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL THUS
ADJUST WEATEHR GRIDS TO REFLECT WORDING FAVORING SHOWERS. TEMPS ARE
ON TRACK TO REACH MID 80S...AND COULD SEE SOME UPPER 80S IN THE EAST
IF INSOLATION PERSISTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.




FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DECENT
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WITHIN A MOIST AND VOLATILE AIR MASS... WITH
ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. LATEST SURFACE
MAP SHOWS THE FRONTAL ZONE WINDING AROUND THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
STATES AND ACROSS COASTAL NC... LEADING TO A VERY LIGHT FLOW FROM
THE NE OR E INTO NC. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC-SOURCE
MOISTURE PUMPING INTO THE AREA... AND ALOFT AS WELL AS THE DAMP
SURGE EAST AND NORTH OF THE GULF COAST LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY... DRAWING IN DEEPER MOISTURE OFF FL AND THE BAHAMAS.
GOES SOUNDER PW VALUES ARE WIDESPREAD 2.0-2.5 OVER NC (HIGHEST
ACROSS SRN NC)... AND WHILE THE BLENDED TPW AND GSO UA VALUES ARE A
BIT LOWER THEY`RE STILL 120-150% OF NORMAL. MODELS SHOW THE HIGHER
PW CONTINUE TO SURGE TO THE WNW INTO CENTRAL NC ON THE CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SE AND E TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BEST
COVERAGE COULD HOLD OVER ERN NC AS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL HOLD EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY... ALONG AND EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. BUT THIS
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY IN FAVOR OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH AS
THE OFFSHORE RIDGE BECOMES A BIT MORE DOMINANT WITH THE WESTWARD
NUDGE OF THE GULF UPPER LOW... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP
LCL-0C LAYER SUPPORTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND HIGH PRECIP
EFFICIENCY. WILL TAKE POPS UP TO 50-60%... SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH
FIRST THEN TOWARD THE NNW. COVERAGE SHOULD TAPER DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY
TO ISOLATED DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A
GREATER WESTERLY COMPONENT. WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK... GIVEN THE HIGH-PW AND HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY COUPLED WITH
THE ALREADY-WET GROUND MOST PLACES. MBE MOVEMENT SHOULD BE A BIT
GREATER THAN MONDAY... BUT WITH WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS... SOME
SLOWER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS COULD STILL DROP HIGH RAIN TOTALS.
HOWEVER... OVERALL LOW COVERAGE OF THESE HIGHER TOTALS HOWEVER
PRECLUDE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HIGHS 83-88. LOWS
TONIGHT 71-75 WITH MORE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PIEDMONT
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING TOWARD THE SSE OVER THE OH
VALLEY... AS 850 MB FLOW BECOMES MAINLY WESTERLY. WE`LL SEE
IMPROVING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE BROAD TROUGH DIGS OVER ERN
CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST WITH THE WESTERLIES INCHING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD NC... PROMPTING DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT OF 20-50
M. EXPECT REDUCED CLOUDINESS ON WED AS WE LOSE THE TAP OF DEEPER
BAHAMIAN MOISTURE WITH MID LEVELS EXHIBITING MINOR DRYING... AND
THIS SHOULD NOT ONLY PUSH UP TEMPS (THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
5-8 M HIGHER WED THAN TODAY) BUT SHOULD ALSO PUSH UP INSTABILITY...
AND THE SREF MEAN MLCAPE WED IS 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MODEST HOWEVER... JUST AROUND 15-20 KTS AT
MOST... BUT NEVERTHELESS EXPECT A BIT MORE ORGANIZED SCATTERED
STORMS TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP POPS AS CHANCE... FOCUSED ON THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGHS 89-93. STICKY LOWS OF 71-75 WED NIGHT...
WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AS WE MAINTAIN
MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. -GIH

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE INITIAL
SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES NC WILL BE SITUATED UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND FORECASTS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5 C/KM. THE BEST INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCAPE AND MLCAPE VALUES FORECAST
FROM 1000 J/KG IN THE NW TO 2500 J/KG ALONG THE NC COAST. BULK SHEAR
IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE DESCENT TO GOOD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
AND SE...WITH VALUES OF 25 TO 35 KTS...SUPPORTING MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STORM TO BECOME SEVERE...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. THUS...
EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT ON THURSDAY GIVEN THE PWAT VALUES AROUND
2 INCHES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NW TO LOW 90S SE AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT
FOR FRIDAY. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW FAR THE COOLER AIR WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE AREA AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SIT ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS...HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER 80. LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. GIVEN THE LINGERING SFC LOW
ALONG THE COAST AND THE FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF NC/VA...
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. PWATS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY FRIDAY...DOWN TO AROUND 1.00 TO 1.20 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT AS
MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A LINGERING CHANCE
FOR SOME CONVECTION IN THE EAST SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
LINGERING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HIGHS
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC
FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST AS A LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THEREFORE...EXPECT CHANCES FOR AFT/EVE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD...SPOTTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WANING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR EXCEPT FOR MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR IN THE VICINITY OF
CONVECTION. A TYPICAL BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CIGS AND VSBY
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE 08-13Z TIME FRAME...EXCEPT THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BE LOWER AND DEVELOP A COUPLE OF HOURS SOONER AT SITES THAT RECEIVE RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MORE UNIFORMLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW...BUT STILL
LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. AGAIN EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION...
MAINLY AFTER 18Z...WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE WEST...
GSO/INT...AND AT FAY WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE EAST...
RWI/FAY...INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLM/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...MLM/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD/KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MLM




000
FXUS62 KRAH 221739
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...MAINTAINING A MOIST FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY... THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...

UPDATE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP...WITH THE
VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH THE PLUME OF 2.0 PRECIPITABLE WATER
MAINTAINING ITS GULF AND ATLANTIC FEEDS. DIURNAL HEATING WOULD BE
CONDUCIVE TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...IF...IF WE HAD SOME
MODEST LOW LEVEL FORCING/CONVERGENCE TO UTILIZE THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ONLY WEAKLY CONVERGENT EAST OF THE
AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL TROF. THE UPPER LOW HAS SETTLED
IN THE DELTA REGION AS EXPECTED...AND MID LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE
LESS ROBUST TODAY AS WELL. SHOULD SEE DECENT COVERAGE...BUT THE LACK
OF MID AND UPPER SUPPORT SUGGEST FEWER THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL THUS
ADJUST WEATEHR GRIDS TO REFLECT WORDING FAVORING SHOWERS. TEMPS ARE
ON TRACK TO REACH MID 80S...AND COULD SEE SOME UPPER 80S IN THE EAST
IF INSOLATION PERSISTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.




FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DECENT
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WITHIN A MOIST AND VOLATILE AIR MASS... WITH
ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. LATEST SURFACE
MAP SHOWS THE FRONTAL ZONE WINDING AROUND THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
STATES AND ACROSS COASTAL NC... LEADING TO A VERY LIGHT FLOW FROM
THE NE OR E INTO NC. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC-SOURCE
MOISTURE PUMPING INTO THE AREA... AND ALOFT AS WELL AS THE DAMP
SURGE EAST AND NORTH OF THE GULF COAST LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY... DRAWING IN DEEPER MOISTURE OFF FL AND THE BAHAMAS.
GOES SOUNDER PW VALUES ARE WIDESPREAD 2.0-2.5 OVER NC (HIGHEST
ACROSS SRN NC)... AND WHILE THE BLENDED TPW AND GSO UA VALUES ARE A
BIT LOWER THEY`RE STILL 120-150% OF NORMAL. MODELS SHOW THE HIGHER
PW CONTINUE TO SURGE TO THE WNW INTO CENTRAL NC ON THE CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SE AND E TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BEST
COVERAGE COULD HOLD OVER ERN NC AS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL HOLD EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY... ALONG AND EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. BUT THIS
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY IN FAVOR OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH AS
THE OFFSHORE RIDGE BECOMES A BIT MORE DOMINANT WITH THE WESTWARD
NUDGE OF THE GULF UPPER LOW... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP
LCL-0C LAYER SUPPORTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND HIGH PRECIP
EFFICIENCY. WILL TAKE POPS UP TO 50-60%... SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH
FIRST THEN TOWARD THE NNW. COVERAGE SHOULD TAPER DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY
TO ISOLATED DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A
GREATER WESTERLY COMPONENT. WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK... GIVEN THE HIGH-PW AND HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY COUPLED WITH
THE ALREADY-WET GROUND MOST PLACES. MBE MOVEMENT SHOULD BE A BIT
GREATER THAN MONDAY... BUT WITH WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS... SOME
SLOWER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS COULD STILL DROP HIGH RAIN TOTALS.
HOWEVER... OVERALL LOW COVERAGE OF THESE HIGHER TOTALS HOWEVER
PRECLUDE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HIGHS 83-88. LOWS
TONIGHT 71-75 WITH MORE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PIEDMONT
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING TOWARD THE SSE OVER THE OH
VALLEY... AS 850 MB FLOW BECOMES MAINLY WESTERLY. WE`LL SEE
IMPROVING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE BROAD TROUGH DIGS OVER ERN
CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST WITH THE WESTERLIES INCHING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD NC... PROMPTING DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT OF 20-50
M. EXPECT REDUCED CLOUDINESS ON WED AS WE LOSE THE TAP OF DEEPER
BAHAMIAN MOISTURE WITH MID LEVELS EXHIBITING MINOR DRYING... AND
THIS SHOULD NOT ONLY PUSH UP TEMPS (THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
5-8 M HIGHER WED THAN TODAY) BUT SHOULD ALSO PUSH UP INSTABILITY...
AND THE SREF MEAN MLCAPE WED IS 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MODEST HOWEVER... JUST AROUND 15-20 KTS AT
MOST... BUT NEVERTHELESS EXPECT A BIT MORE ORGANIZED SCATTERED
STORMS TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP POPS AS CHANCE... FOCUSED ON THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGHS 89-93. STICKY LOWS OF 71-75 WED NIGHT...
WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AS WE MAINTAIN
MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. -GIH

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE INITIAL
SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES NC WILL BE SITUATED UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND FORECASTS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5 C/KM. THE BEST INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCAPE AND MLCAPE VALUES FORECAST
FROM 1000 J/KG IN THE NW TO 2500 J/KG ALONG THE NC COAST. BULK SHEAR
IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE DESCENT TO GOOD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
AND SE...WITH VALUES OF 25 TO 35 KTS...SUPPORTING MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STORM TO BECOME SEVERE...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. THUS...
EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT ON THURSDAY GIVEN THE PWAT VALUES AROUND
2 INCHES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NW TO LOW 90S SE AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT
FOR FRIDAY. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW FAR THE COOLER AIR WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE AREA AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SIT ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS...HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER 80. LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. GIVEN THE LINGERING SFC LOW
ALONG THE COAST AND THE FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF NC/VA...
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. PWATS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY FRIDAY...DOWN TO AROUND 1.00 TO 1.20 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT AS
MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A LINGERING CHANCE
FOR SOME CONVECTION IN THE EAST SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
LINGERING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HIGHS
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC
FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST AS A LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THEREFORE...EXPECT CHANCES FOR AFT/EVE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...

FOR THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD...SPOTTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WANING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR EXCEPT FOR MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR IN THE VICINITY OF
CONVECTION. A TYPICAL BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR CIGS AND VSBY
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE 08-13Z TIME FRAME...EXCEPT THAT CONDITIONS WILL
BE LOWER AND DEVELOP A COUPLE OF HOURS SOONER AT SITES THAT RECEIVE RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE MORE UNIFORMLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW...BUT STILL
LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. AGAIN EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION...
MAINLY AFTER 18Z...WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE WEST...
GSO/INT...AND AT FAY WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE EAST...
RWI/FAY...INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLM/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...MLM/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD/KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MLM





000
FXUS62 KRAH 221506
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...MAINTAINING A MOIST FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY... THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...

UPDATE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP...WITH THE
VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH THE PLUME OF 2.0 PRECIPITABLE WATER
MAINTAINING ITS GULF AND ATLANTIC FEEDS. DIURNAL HEATING WOULD BE
CONDUCIVE TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...IF...IF WE HAD SOME
MODEST LOW LEVEL FORCING/CONVERGENCE TO UTILIZE THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ONLY WEAKLY CONVERGENT EAST OF THE
AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL TROF. THE UPPER LOW HAS SETTLED
IN THE DELTA REGION AS EXPECTED...AND MID LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE
LESS ROBUST TODAY AS WELL. SHOULD SEE DECENT COVERAGE...BUT THE LACK
OF MID AND UPPER SUPPORT SUGGEST FEWER THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL THUS
ADJUST WEATEHR GRIDS TO REFLECT WORDING FAVORING SHOWERS. TEMPS ARE
ON TRACK TO REACH MID 80S...AND COULD SEE SOME UPPER 80S IN THE EAST
IF INSOLATION PERSISTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.




FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DECENT
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WITHIN A MOIST AND VOLATILE AIR MASS... WITH
ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. LATEST SURFACE
MAP SHOWS THE FRONTAL ZONE WINDING AROUND THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
STATES AND ACROSS COASTAL NC... LEADING TO A VERY LIGHT FLOW FROM
THE NE OR E INTO NC. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC-SOURCE
MOISTURE PUMPING INTO THE AREA... AND ALOFT AS WELL AS THE DAMP
SURGE EAST AND NORTH OF THE GULF COAST LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY... DRAWING IN DEEPER MOISTURE OFF FL AND THE BAHAMAS.
GOES SOUNDER PW VALUES ARE WIDESPREAD 2.0-2.5 OVER NC (HIGHEST
ACROSS SRN NC)... AND WHILE THE BLENDED TPW AND GSO UA VALUES ARE A
BIT LOWER THEY`RE STILL 120-150% OF NORMAL. MODELS SHOW THE HIGHER
PW CONTINUE TO SURGE TO THE WNW INTO CENTRAL NC ON THE CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SE AND E TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BEST
COVERAGE COULD HOLD OVER ERN NC AS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL HOLD EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY... ALONG AND EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. BUT THIS
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY IN FAVOR OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH AS
THE OFFSHORE RIDGE BECOMES A BIT MORE DOMINANT WITH THE WESTWARD
NUDGE OF THE GULF UPPER LOW... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP
LCL-0C LAYER SUPPORTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND HIGH PRECIP
EFFICIENCY. WILL TAKE POPS UP TO 50-60%... SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH
FIRST THEN TOWARD THE NNW. COVERAGE SHOULD TAPER DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY
TO ISOLATED DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A
GREATER WESTERLY COMPONENT. WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK... GIVEN THE HIGH-PW AND HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY COUPLED WITH
THE ALREADY-WET GROUND MOST PLACES. MBE MOVEMENT SHOULD BE A BIT
GREATER THAN MONDAY... BUT WITH WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS... SOME
SLOWER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS COULD STILL DROP HIGH RAIN TOTALS.
HOWEVER... OVERALL LOW COVERAGE OF THESE HIGHER TOTALS HOWEVER
PRECLUDE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HIGHS 83-88. LOWS
TONIGHT 71-75 WITH MORE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PIEDMONT
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING TOWARD THE SSE OVER THE OH
VALLEY... AS 850 MB FLOW BECOMES MAINLY WESTERLY. WE`LL SEE
IMPROVING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE BROAD TROUGH DIGS OVER ERN
CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST WITH THE WESTERLIES INCHING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD NC... PROMPTING DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT OF 20-50
M. EXPECT REDUCED CLOUDINESS ON WED AS WE LOSE THE TAP OF DEEPER
BAHAMIAN MOISTURE WITH MID LEVELS EXHIBITING MINOR DRYING... AND
THIS SHOULD NOT ONLY PUSH UP TEMPS (THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
5-8 M HIGHER WED THAN TODAY) BUT SHOULD ALSO PUSH UP INSTABILITY...
AND THE SREF MEAN MLCAPE WED IS 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MODEST HOWEVER... JUST AROUND 15-20 KTS AT
MOST... BUT NEVERTHELESS EXPECT A BIT MORE ORGANIZED SCATTERED
STORMS TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP POPS AS CHANCE... FOCUSED ON THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGHS 89-93. STICKY LOWS OF 71-75 WED NIGHT...
WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AS WE MAINTAIN
MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. -GIH

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE INITIAL
SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES NC WILL BE SITUATED UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND FORECASTS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5 C/KM. THE BEST INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCAPE AND MLCAPE VALUES FORECAST
FROM 1000 J/KG IN THE NW TO 2500 J/KG ALONG THE NC COAST. BULK SHEAR
IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE DESCENT TO GOOD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
AND SE...WITH VALUES OF 25 TO 35 KTS...SUPPORTING MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STORM TO BECOME SEVERE...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. THUS...
EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT ON THURSDAY GIVEN THE PWAT VALUES AROUND
2 INCHES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NW TO LOW 90S SE AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT
FOR FRIDAY. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW FAR THE COOLER AIR WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE AREA AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SIT ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS...HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER 80. LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. GIVEN THE LINGERING SFC LOW
ALONG THE COAST AND THE FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF NC/VA...
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. PWATS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY FRIDAY...DOWN TO AROUND 1.00 TO 1.20 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT AS
MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A LINGERING CHANCE
FOR SOME CONVECTION IN THE EAST SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
LINGERING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HIGHS
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC
FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST AS A LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THEREFORE...EXPECT CHANCES FOR AFT/EVE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 710 AM TUESDAY...

ABOVE-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND 13Z AT ALL TAF AIRFIELDS EXCEPT INT... WHERE A LACK OF
RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS KEPT CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR SO FAR THIS
MORNING. CIGS SHOULD RISE SLOWLY TO MVFR BY 15Z WITH VSBYS CLIMBING
TO VFR... THEN MVFR CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR BY 17Z OR 18Z. ISOLD
SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO GREATER COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH RISING AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE... ALTHOUGH AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY... THE
DIFFICULTY LIES IN TRYING TO DETERMINE WHICH SITE WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT LOOKS LIKE FAY COULD SEE THE FIRST
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS BY THE NOON HOUR... WITH ACTIVITY THEN
SPREADING TO THE NORTH AND NW TO THE REST OF THE TAF SITES AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. OVERALL
COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN WE SAW MONDAY. CIGS SHOULD
HEAD BACK DOWN TO MVFR AFTER SUNDOWN. WITH DEW POINTS STILL HIGH...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN AFTER 08Z AT ALL SITES.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH 13Z WED MORNING. THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NC WILL
HAVE DISSIPATED WITH SURFACE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE SW WED AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...
SO CLOUD BASES SHOULD RISE TO VFR BY 15Z WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THU (ALTHOUGH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING). EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH SAT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLM/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...MLM/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD/KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 221506
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...MAINTAINING A MOIST FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY... THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...

UPDATE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP...WITH THE
VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH THE PLUME OF 2.0 PRECIPITABLE WATER
MAINTAINING ITS GULF AND ATLANTIC FEEDS. DIURNAL HEATING WOULD BE
CONDUCIVE TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...IF...IF WE HAD SOME
MODEST LOW LEVEL FORCING/CONVERGENCE TO UTILIZE THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ONLY WEAKLY CONVERGENT EAST OF THE
AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL TROF. THE UPPER LOW HAS SETTLED
IN THE DELTA REGION AS EXPECTED...AND MID LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE
LESS ROBUST TODAY AS WELL. SHOULD SEE DECENT COVERAGE...BUT THE LACK
OF MID AND UPPER SUPPORT SUGGEST FEWER THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL THUS
ADJUST WEATEHR GRIDS TO REFLECT WORDING FAVORING SHOWERS. TEMPS ARE
ON TRACK TO REACH MID 80S...AND COULD SEE SOME UPPER 80S IN THE EAST
IF INSOLATION PERSISTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.




FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DECENT
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WITHIN A MOIST AND VOLATILE AIR MASS... WITH
ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. LATEST SURFACE
MAP SHOWS THE FRONTAL ZONE WINDING AROUND THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
STATES AND ACROSS COASTAL NC... LEADING TO A VERY LIGHT FLOW FROM
THE NE OR E INTO NC. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC-SOURCE
MOISTURE PUMPING INTO THE AREA... AND ALOFT AS WELL AS THE DAMP
SURGE EAST AND NORTH OF THE GULF COAST LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY... DRAWING IN DEEPER MOISTURE OFF FL AND THE BAHAMAS.
GOES SOUNDER PW VALUES ARE WIDESPREAD 2.0-2.5 OVER NC (HIGHEST
ACROSS SRN NC)... AND WHILE THE BLENDED TPW AND GSO UA VALUES ARE A
BIT LOWER THEY`RE STILL 120-150% OF NORMAL. MODELS SHOW THE HIGHER
PW CONTINUE TO SURGE TO THE WNW INTO CENTRAL NC ON THE CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SE AND E TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BEST
COVERAGE COULD HOLD OVER ERN NC AS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL HOLD EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY... ALONG AND EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. BUT THIS
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY IN FAVOR OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH AS
THE OFFSHORE RIDGE BECOMES A BIT MORE DOMINANT WITH THE WESTWARD
NUDGE OF THE GULF UPPER LOW... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP
LCL-0C LAYER SUPPORTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND HIGH PRECIP
EFFICIENCY. WILL TAKE POPS UP TO 50-60%... SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH
FIRST THEN TOWARD THE NNW. COVERAGE SHOULD TAPER DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY
TO ISOLATED DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A
GREATER WESTERLY COMPONENT. WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK... GIVEN THE HIGH-PW AND HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY COUPLED WITH
THE ALREADY-WET GROUND MOST PLACES. MBE MOVEMENT SHOULD BE A BIT
GREATER THAN MONDAY... BUT WITH WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS... SOME
SLOWER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS COULD STILL DROP HIGH RAIN TOTALS.
HOWEVER... OVERALL LOW COVERAGE OF THESE HIGHER TOTALS HOWEVER
PRECLUDE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HIGHS 83-88. LOWS
TONIGHT 71-75 WITH MORE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PIEDMONT
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING TOWARD THE SSE OVER THE OH
VALLEY... AS 850 MB FLOW BECOMES MAINLY WESTERLY. WE`LL SEE
IMPROVING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE BROAD TROUGH DIGS OVER ERN
CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST WITH THE WESTERLIES INCHING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD NC... PROMPTING DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT OF 20-50
M. EXPECT REDUCED CLOUDINESS ON WED AS WE LOSE THE TAP OF DEEPER
BAHAMIAN MOISTURE WITH MID LEVELS EXHIBITING MINOR DRYING... AND
THIS SHOULD NOT ONLY PUSH UP TEMPS (THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
5-8 M HIGHER WED THAN TODAY) BUT SHOULD ALSO PUSH UP INSTABILITY...
AND THE SREF MEAN MLCAPE WED IS 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MODEST HOWEVER... JUST AROUND 15-20 KTS AT
MOST... BUT NEVERTHELESS EXPECT A BIT MORE ORGANIZED SCATTERED
STORMS TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP POPS AS CHANCE... FOCUSED ON THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGHS 89-93. STICKY LOWS OF 71-75 WED NIGHT...
WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AS WE MAINTAIN
MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. -GIH

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE INITIAL
SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES NC WILL BE SITUATED UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND FORECASTS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5 C/KM. THE BEST INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCAPE AND MLCAPE VALUES FORECAST
FROM 1000 J/KG IN THE NW TO 2500 J/KG ALONG THE NC COAST. BULK SHEAR
IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE DESCENT TO GOOD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
AND SE...WITH VALUES OF 25 TO 35 KTS...SUPPORTING MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STORM TO BECOME SEVERE...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. THUS...
EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT ON THURSDAY GIVEN THE PWAT VALUES AROUND
2 INCHES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NW TO LOW 90S SE AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT
FOR FRIDAY. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW FAR THE COOLER AIR WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE AREA AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SIT ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS...HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER 80. LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. GIVEN THE LINGERING SFC LOW
ALONG THE COAST AND THE FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF NC/VA...
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. PWATS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY FRIDAY...DOWN TO AROUND 1.00 TO 1.20 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT AS
MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A LINGERING CHANCE
FOR SOME CONVECTION IN THE EAST SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
LINGERING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HIGHS
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC
FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST AS A LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THEREFORE...EXPECT CHANCES FOR AFT/EVE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 710 AM TUESDAY...

ABOVE-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND 13Z AT ALL TAF AIRFIELDS EXCEPT INT... WHERE A LACK OF
RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS KEPT CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR SO FAR THIS
MORNING. CIGS SHOULD RISE SLOWLY TO MVFR BY 15Z WITH VSBYS CLIMBING
TO VFR... THEN MVFR CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR BY 17Z OR 18Z. ISOLD
SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO GREATER COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH RISING AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE... ALTHOUGH AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY... THE
DIFFICULTY LIES IN TRYING TO DETERMINE WHICH SITE WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT LOOKS LIKE FAY COULD SEE THE FIRST
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS BY THE NOON HOUR... WITH ACTIVITY THEN
SPREADING TO THE NORTH AND NW TO THE REST OF THE TAF SITES AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. OVERALL
COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN WE SAW MONDAY. CIGS SHOULD
HEAD BACK DOWN TO MVFR AFTER SUNDOWN. WITH DEW POINTS STILL HIGH...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN AFTER 08Z AT ALL SITES.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH 13Z WED MORNING. THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NC WILL
HAVE DISSIPATED WITH SURFACE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE SW WED AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...
SO CLOUD BASES SHOULD RISE TO VFR BY 15Z WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THU (ALTHOUGH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING). EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH SAT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLM/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...MLM/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD/KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 221108
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
710 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK... RESULTING IN A MOIST FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY... THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DECENT
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WITHIN A MOIST AND VOLATILE AIR MASS... WITH
ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. LATEST SURFACE
MAP SHOWS THE FRONTAL ZONE WINDING AROUND THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
STATES AND ACROSS COASTAL NC... LEADING TO A VERY LIGHT FLOW FROM
THE NE OR E INTO NC. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC-SOURCE
MOISTURE PUMPING INTO THE AREA... AND ALOFT AS WELL AS THE DAMP
SURGE EAST AND NORTH OF THE GULF COAST LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY... DRAWING IN DEEPER MOISTURE OFF FL AND THE BAHAMAS.
GOES SOUNDER PW VALUES ARE WIDESPREAD 2.0-2.5 OVER NC (HIGHEST
ACROSS SRN NC)... AND WHILE THE BLENDED TPW AND GSO UA VALUES ARE A
BIT LOWER THEY`RE STILL 120-150% OF NORMAL. MODELS SHOW THE HIGHER
PW CONTINUE TO SURGE TO THE WNW INTO CENTRAL NC ON THE CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SE AND E TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BEST
COVERAGE COULD HOLD OVER ERN NC AS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL HOLD EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY... ALONG AND EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. BUT THIS
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY IN FAVOR OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH AS
THE OFFSHORE RIDGE BECOMES A BIT MORE DOMINANT WITH THE WESTWARD
NUDGE OF THE GULF UPPER LOW... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP
LCL-0C LAYER SUPPORTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND HIGH PRECIP
EFFICIENCY. WILL TAKE POPS UP TO 50-60%... SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH
FIRST THEN TOWARD THE NNW. COVERAGE SHOULD TAPER DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY
TO ISOLATED DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A
GREATER WESTERLY COMPONENT. WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK... GIVEN THE HIGH-PW AND HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY COUPLED WITH
THE ALREADY-WET GROUND MOST PLACES. MBE MOVEMENT SHOULD BE A BIT
GREATER THAN MONDAY... BUT WITH WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS... SOME
SLOWER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS COULD STILL DROP HIGH RAIN TOTALS.
HOWEVER... OVERALL LOW COVERAGE OF THESE HIGHER TOTALS HOWEVER
PRECLUDE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HIGHS 83-88. LOWS
TONIGHT 71-75 WITH MORE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PIEDMONT
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING TOWARD THE SSE OVER THE OH
VALLEY... AS 850 MB FLOW BECOMES MAINLY WESTERLY. WE`LL SEE
IMPROVING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE BROAD TROUGH DIGS OVER ERN
CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST WITH THE WESTERLIES INCHING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD NC... PROMPTING DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT OF 20-50
M. EXPECT REDUCED CLOUDINESS ON WED AS WE LOSE THE TAP OF DEEPER
BAHAMIAN MOISTURE WITH MID LEVELS EXHIBITING MINOR DRYING... AND
THIS SHOULD NOT ONLY PUSH UP TEMPS (THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
5-8 M HIGHER WED THAN TODAY) BUT SHOULD ALSO PUSH UP INSTABILITY...
AND THE SREF MEAN MLCAPE WED IS 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MODEST HOWEVER... JUST AROUND 15-20 KTS AT
MOST... BUT NEVERTHELESS EXPECT A BIT MORE ORGANIZED SCATTERED
STORMS TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP POPS AS CHANCE... FOCUSED ON THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGHS 89-93. STICKY LOWS OF 71-75 WED NIGHT...
WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AS WE MAINTAIN
MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. -GIH

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE INITIAL
SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES NC WILL BE SITUATED UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND FORECASTS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5 C/KM. THE BEST INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCAPE AND MLCAPE VALUES FORECAST
FROM 1000 J/KG IN THE NW TO 2500 J/KG ALONG THE NC COAST. BULK SHEAR
IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE DESCENT TO GOOD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
AND SE...WITH VALUES OF 25 TO 35 KTS...SUPPORTING MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STORM TO BECOME SEVERE...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. THUS...
EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT ON THURSDAY GIVEN THE PWAT VALUES AROUND
2 INCHES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NW TO LOW 90S SE AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT
FOR FRIDAY. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW FAR THE COOLER AIR WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE AREA AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SIT ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS...HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER 80. LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. GIVEN THE LINGERING SFC LOW
ALONG THE COAST AND THE FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF NC/VA...
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. PWATS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY FRIDAY...DOWN TO AROUND 1.00 TO 1.20 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT AS
MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A LINGERING CHANCE
FOR SOME CONVECTION IN THE EAST SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
LINGERING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HIGHS
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC
FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST AS A LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THEREFORE...EXPECT CHANCES FOR AFT/EVE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 710 AM TUESDAY...

ABOVE-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND 13Z AT ALL TAF AIRFIELDS EXCEPT INT... WHERE A LACK OF
RAINFALL YESTERDAY HAS KEPT CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR SO FAR THIS
MORNING. CIGS SHOULD RISE SLOWLY TO MVFR BY 15Z WITH VSBYS CLIMBING
TO VFR... THEN MVFR CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR BY 17Z OR 18Z. ISOLD
SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO GREATER COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH RISING AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE... ALTHOUGH AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY... THE
DIFFICULTY LIES IN TRYING TO DETERMINE WHICH SITE WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT LOOKS LIKE FAY COULD SEE THE FIRST
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS BY THE NOON HOUR... WITH ACTIVITY THEN
SPREADING TO THE NORTH AND NW TO THE REST OF THE TAF SITES AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. OVERALL
COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN WE SAW MONDAY. CIGS SHOULD
HEAD BACK DOWN TO MVFR AFTER SUNDOWN. WITH DEW POINTS STILL HIGH...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN AFTER 08Z AT ALL SITES.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING... IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH 13Z WED MORNING. THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ERN NC WILL
HAVE DISSIPATED WITH SURFACE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE SW WED AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...
SO CLOUD BASES SHOULD RISE TO VFR BY 15Z WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THU (ALTHOUGH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WITHIN STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING). EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH SAT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD/KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 220700
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK... RESULTING IN A MOIST FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY... THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DECENT
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WITHIN A MOIST AND VOLATILE AIR MASS... WITH
ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. LATEST SURFACE
MAP SHOWS THE FRONTAL ZONE WINDING AROUND THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
STATES AND ACROSS COASTAL NC... LEADING TO A VERY LIGHT FLOW FROM
THE NE OR E INTO NC. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC-SOURCE
MOISTURE PUMPING INTO THE AREA... AND ALOFT AS WELL AS THE DAMP
SURGE EAST AND NORTH OF THE GULF COAST LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY... DRAWING IN DEEPER MOISTURE OFF FL AND THE BAHAMAS.
GOES SOUNDER PW VALUES ARE WIDESPREAD 2.0-2.5 OVER NC (HIGHEST
ACROSS SRN NC)... AND WHILE THE BLENDED TPW AND GSO UA VALUES ARE A
BIT LOWER THEY`RE STILL 120-150% OF NORMAL. MODELS SHOW THE HIGHER
PW CONTINUE TO SURGE TO THE WNW INTO CENTRAL NC ON THE CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SE AND E TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BEST
COVERAGE COULD HOLD OVER ERN NC AS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL HOLD EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY... ALONG AND EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. BUT THIS
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY IN FAVOR OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH AS
THE OFFSHORE RIDGE BECOMES A BIT MORE DOMINANT WITH THE WESTWARD
NUDGE OF THE GULF UPPER LOW... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP
LCL-0C LAYER SUPPORTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND HIGH PRECIP
EFFICIENCY. WILL TAKE POPS UP TO 50-60%... SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH
FIRST THEN TOWARD THE NNW. COVERAGE SHOULD TAPER DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY
TO ISOLATED DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A
GREATER WESTERLY COMPONENT. WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK... GIVEN THE HIGH-PW AND HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY COUPLED WITH
THE ALREADY-WET GROUND MOST PLACES. MBE MOVEMENT SHOULD BE A BIT
GREATER THAN MONDAY... BUT WITH WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS... SOME
SLOWER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS COULD STILL DROP HIGH RAIN TOTALS.
HOWEVER... OVERALL LOW COVERAGE OF THESE HIGHER TOTALS HOWEVER
PRECLUDE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HIGHS 83-88. LOWS
TONIGHT 71-75 WITH MORE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PIEDMONT
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING TOWARD THE SSE OVER THE OH
VALLEY... AS 850 MB FLOW BECOMES MAINLY WESTERLY. WE`LL SEE
IMPROVING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE BROAD TROUGH DIGS OVER ERN
CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST WITH THE WESTERLIES INCHING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD NC... PROMPTING DECENT HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT OF 20-50
M. EXPECT REDUCED CLOUDINESS ON WED AS WE LOSE THE TAP OF DEEPER
BAHAMIAN MOISTURE WITH MID LEVELS EXHIBITING MINOR DRYING... AND
THIS SHOULD NOT ONLY PUSH UP TEMPS (THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO BE
5-8 M HIGHER WED THAN TODAY) BUT SHOULD ALSO PUSH UP INSTABILITY...
AND THE SREF MEAN MLCAPE WED IS 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MODEST HOWEVER... JUST AROUND 15-20 KTS AT
MOST... BUT NEVERTHELESS EXPECT A BIT MORE ORGANIZED SCATTERED
STORMS TO DEVELOP. WILL KEEP POPS AS CHANCE... FOCUSED ON THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGHS 89-93. STICKY LOWS OF 71-75 WED NIGHT...
WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AS WE MAINTAIN
MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. -GIH

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE INITIAL
SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES NC WILL BE SITUATED UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND FORECASTS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5 C/KM. THE BEST INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCAPE AND MLCAPE VALUES FORECAST
FROM 1000 J/KG IN THE NW TO 2500 J/KG ALONG THE NC COAST. BULK SHEAR
IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE DESCENT TO GOOD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
AND SE...WITH VALUES OF 25 TO 35 KTS...SUPPORTING MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STORM TO BECOME SEVERE...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. THUS...
EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT ON THURSDAY GIVEN THE PWAT VALUES AROUND
2 INCHES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NW TO LOW 90S SE AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT
FOR FRIDAY. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW FAR THE COOLER AIR WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE AREA AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SIT ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS...HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER 80. LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. GIVEN THE LINGERING SFC LOW
ALONG THE COAST AND THE FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF NC/VA...
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. PWATS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY FRIDAY...DOWN TO AROUND 1.00 TO 1.20 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT AS
MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A LINGERING CHANCE
FOR SOME CONVECTION IN THE EAST SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
LINGERING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HIGHS
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC
FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST AS A LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THEREFORE...EXPECT CHANCES FOR AFT/EVE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM TUESDAY...

ABOVE-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND 12Z OR 13Z AT ALL TAF AIRFIELDS. CIGS AND VSBYS CURRENTLY SIT
AT VFR OR MVFR... BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR BY 07Z
OR 08Z... WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS. CIGS SHOULD RISE SLOWLY TO MVFR BY
15Z WITH VSBYS CLIMBING TO VFR... THEN MVFR CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR
BY 17Z OR 18Z. ISOLD SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING WILL LIKELY GIVE
WAY TO GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES WITH RISING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE... ALTHOUGH AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY... THE DIFFICULTY LIES IN TRYING TO DETERMINE WHICH
SITE WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT LOOKS LIKE FAY
COULD SEE THE FIRST DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS BY THE NOON
HOUR... WITH ACTIVITY THEN SPREADING TO THE NORTH AND NW TO THE REST
OF THE TAF SITES AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON. OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN WE SAW
MONDAY. CIGS SHOULD HEAD BACK DOWN TO MVFR AFTER SUNDOWN.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH DEW POINTS STILL
HIGH... IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN AFTER 08Z AT ALL
SITES... LASTING THROUGH 13Z WED MORNING. THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
ERN NC WILL HAVE DISSIPATED WITH SURFACE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE SW
WED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR... SO CLOUD BASES SHOULD RISE TO VFR BY 15Z WED MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THU
(ALTHOUGH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING). EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH SAT WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD/KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 220640
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK... RESULTING IN A MOIST FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY... THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DECENT
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WITHIN A MOIST AND VOLATILE AIR MASS... WITH
ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. LATEST SURFACE
MAP SHOWS THE FRONTAL ZONE WINDING AROUND THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
STATES AND ACROSS COASTAL NC... LEADING TO A VERY LIGHT FLOW FROM
THE NE OR E INTO NC. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC-SOURCE
MOISTURE PUMPING INTO THE AREA... AND ALOFT AS WELL AS THE DAMP
SURGE EAST AND NORTH OF THE GULF COAST LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY... DRAWING IN DEEPER MOISTURE OFF FL AND THE BAHAMAS.
GOES SOUNDER PW VALUES ARE WIDESPREAD 2.0-2.5 OVER NC (HIGHEST
ACROSS SRN NC)... AND WHILE THE BLENDED TPW AND GSO UA VALUES ARE A
BIT LOWER THEY`RE STILL 120-150% OF NORMAL. MODELS SHOW THE HIGHER
PW CONTINUE TO SURGE TO THE WNW INTO CENTRAL NC ON THE CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SE AND E TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BEST
COVERAGE COULD HOLD OVER ERN NC AS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL HOLD EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY... ALONG AND EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. BUT THIS
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY IN FAVOR OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH AS
THE OFFSHORE RIDGE BECOMES A BIT MORE DOMINANT WITH THE WESTWARD
NUDGE OF THE GULF UPPER LOW... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP
LCL-0C LAYER SUPPORTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND HIGH PRECIP
EFFICIENCY. WILL TAKE POPS UP TO 50-60%... SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH
FIRST THEN TOWARD THE NNW. COVERAGE SHOULD TAPER DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY
TO ISOLATED DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A
GREATER WESTERLY COMPONENT. WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK... GIVEN THE HIGH-PW AND HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY COUPLED WITH
THE ALREADY-WET GROUND MOST PLACES. MBE MOVEMENT SHOULD BE A BIT
GREATER THAN MONDAY... BUT WITH WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS... SOME
SLOWER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS COULD STILL DROP HIGH RAIN TOTALS.
HOWEVER... OVERALL LOW COVERAGE OF THESE HIGHER TOTALS HOWEVER
PRECLUDE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HIGHS 83-88. LOWS
TONIGHT 71-75 WITH MORE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT (AS OF 305 PM MONDAY): AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WARM
AND UNSTABLE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES OF AROUND 1000-
2000 J/KG. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
OVERWHELMING AND LIKELY MOST FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...EAST
OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TO THE WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 88 TO 92 RANGE ARE SUPPORTED BY CONSENSUS
THICKNESS VALUES AND IN BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET
GUIDANCE. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS APT TO CONTINUE IN THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS AND THEN BECOME ISOLATED OVERNIGHT...AGAIN THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND PERHAPS MORE SO IN
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND AS CONVECTION
INITIATED NEAR THE MOUNTAINS MOVES EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SOME MIXING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. -BLAES

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE INITIAL
SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES NC WILL BE SITUATED UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND FORECASTS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5 C/KM. THE BEST INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCAPE AND MLCAPE VALUES FORECAST
FROM 1000 J/KG IN THE NW TO 2500 J/KG ALONG THE NC COAST. BULK SHEAR
IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE DESCENT TO GOOD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
AND SE...WITH VALUES OF 25 TO 35 KTS...SUPPORTING MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STORM TO BECOME SEVERE...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. THUS...
EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT ON THURSDAY GIVEN THE PWAT VALUES AROUND
2 INCHES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NW TO LOW 90S SE AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT
FOR FRIDAY. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW FAR THE COOLER AIR WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE AREA AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SIT ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS...HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER 80. LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. GIVEN THE LINGERING SFC LOW
ALONG THE COAST AND THE FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF NC/VA...
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. PWATS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY FRIDAY...DOWN TO AROUND 1.00 TO 1.20 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT AS
MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A LINGERING CHANCE
FOR SOME CONVECTION IN THE EAST SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
LINGERING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HIGHS
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC
FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST AS A LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THEREFORE...EXPECT CHANCES FOR AFT/EVE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM TUESDAY...

ABOVE-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND 12Z OR 13Z AT ALL TAF AIRFIELDS. CIGS AND VSBYS CURRENTLY SIT
AT VFR OR MVFR... BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR BY 07Z
OR 08Z... WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS. CIGS SHOULD RISE SLOWLY TO MVFR BY
15Z WITH VSBYS CLIMBING TO VFR... THEN MVFR CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR
BY 17Z OR 18Z. ISOLD SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING WILL LIKELY GIVE
WAY TO GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES WITH RISING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE... ALTHOUGH AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY... THE DIFFICULTY LIES IN TRYING TO DETERMINE WHICH
SITE WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT LOOKS LIKE FAY
COULD SEE THE FIRST DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS BY THE NOON
HOUR... WITH ACTIVITY THEN SPREADING TO THE NORTH AND NW TO THE REST
OF THE TAF SITES AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON. OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN WE SAW
MONDAY. CIGS SHOULD HEAD BACK DOWN TO MVFR AFTER SUNDOWN.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH DEW POINTS STILL
HIGH... IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN AFTER 08Z AT ALL
SITES... LASTING THROUGH 13Z WED MORNING. THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
ERN NC WILL HAVE DISSIPATED WITH SURFACE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE SW
WED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR... SO CLOUD BASES SHOULD RISE TO VFR BY 15Z WED MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THU
(ALTHOUGH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING). EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH SAT WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...BLAES/KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 220640
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK... RESULTING IN A MOIST FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY... THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DECENT
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WITHIN A MOIST AND VOLATILE AIR MASS... WITH
ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. LATEST SURFACE
MAP SHOWS THE FRONTAL ZONE WINDING AROUND THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
STATES AND ACROSS COASTAL NC... LEADING TO A VERY LIGHT FLOW FROM
THE NE OR E INTO NC. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC-SOURCE
MOISTURE PUMPING INTO THE AREA... AND ALOFT AS WELL AS THE DAMP
SURGE EAST AND NORTH OF THE GULF COAST LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY... DRAWING IN DEEPER MOISTURE OFF FL AND THE BAHAMAS.
GOES SOUNDER PW VALUES ARE WIDESPREAD 2.0-2.5 OVER NC (HIGHEST
ACROSS SRN NC)... AND WHILE THE BLENDED TPW AND GSO UA VALUES ARE A
BIT LOWER THEY`RE STILL 120-150% OF NORMAL. MODELS SHOW THE HIGHER
PW CONTINUE TO SURGE TO THE WNW INTO CENTRAL NC ON THE CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SE AND E TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BEST
COVERAGE COULD HOLD OVER ERN NC AS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL HOLD EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY... ALONG AND EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. BUT THIS
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY IN FAVOR OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH AS
THE OFFSHORE RIDGE BECOMES A BIT MORE DOMINANT WITH THE WESTWARD
NUDGE OF THE GULF UPPER LOW... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP
LCL-0C LAYER SUPPORTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND HIGH PRECIP
EFFICIENCY. WILL TAKE POPS UP TO 50-60%... SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH
FIRST THEN TOWARD THE NNW. COVERAGE SHOULD TAPER DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY
TO ISOLATED DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A
GREATER WESTERLY COMPONENT. WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK... GIVEN THE HIGH-PW AND HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY COUPLED WITH
THE ALREADY-WET GROUND MOST PLACES. MBE MOVEMENT SHOULD BE A BIT
GREATER THAN MONDAY... BUT WITH WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS... SOME
SLOWER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS COULD STILL DROP HIGH RAIN TOTALS.
HOWEVER... OVERALL LOW COVERAGE OF THESE HIGHER TOTALS HOWEVER
PRECLUDE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HIGHS 83-88. LOWS
TONIGHT 71-75 WITH MORE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT (AS OF 305 PM MONDAY): AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WARM
AND UNSTABLE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY VALUES OF AROUND 1000-
2000 J/KG. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
OVERWHELMING AND LIKELY MOST FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...EAST
OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TO THE WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 88 TO 92 RANGE ARE SUPPORTED BY CONSENSUS
THICKNESS VALUES AND IN BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET
GUIDANCE. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS APT TO CONTINUE IN THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS AND THEN BECOME ISOLATED OVERNIGHT...AGAIN THE BEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND PERHAPS MORE SO IN
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND AS CONVECTION
INITIATED NEAR THE MOUNTAINS MOVES EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SOME MIXING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. -BLAES

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
CENTRAL NC FROM THE WEST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE INITIAL
SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES NC WILL BE SITUATED UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND FORECASTS MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5 C/KM. THE BEST INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCAPE AND MLCAPE VALUES FORECAST
FROM 1000 J/KG IN THE NW TO 2500 J/KG ALONG THE NC COAST. BULK SHEAR
IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE DESCENT TO GOOD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
AND SE...WITH VALUES OF 25 TO 35 KTS...SUPPORTING MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STORM TO BECOME SEVERE...
ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. THUS...
EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT ON THURSDAY GIVEN THE PWAT VALUES AROUND
2 INCHES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NW TO LOW 90S SE AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE INITIAL SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT
FOR FRIDAY. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW FAR THE COOLER AIR WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE AREA AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SIT ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS...HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER 80. LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. GIVEN THE LINGERING SFC LOW
ALONG THE COAST AND THE FRONT STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF NC/VA...
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. PWATS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY FRIDAY...DOWN TO AROUND 1.00 TO 1.20 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT AS
MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A LINGERING CHANCE
FOR SOME CONVECTION IN THE EAST SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
LINGERING ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HIGHS
WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC
FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST AS A LOW DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THEREFORE...EXPECT CHANCES FOR AFT/EVE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM TUESDAY...

ABOVE-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND 12Z OR 13Z AT ALL TAF AIRFIELDS. CIGS AND VSBYS CURRENTLY SIT
AT VFR OR MVFR... BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR BY 07Z
OR 08Z... WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS. CIGS SHOULD RISE SLOWLY TO MVFR BY
15Z WITH VSBYS CLIMBING TO VFR... THEN MVFR CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR
BY 17Z OR 18Z. ISOLD SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING WILL LIKELY GIVE
WAY TO GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES WITH RISING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE... ALTHOUGH AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY... THE DIFFICULTY LIES IN TRYING TO DETERMINE WHICH
SITE WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT LOOKS LIKE FAY
COULD SEE THE FIRST DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS BY THE NOON
HOUR... WITH ACTIVITY THEN SPREADING TO THE NORTH AND NW TO THE REST
OF THE TAF SITES AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON. OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN WE SAW
MONDAY. CIGS SHOULD HEAD BACK DOWN TO MVFR AFTER SUNDOWN.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH DEW POINTS STILL
HIGH... IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN AFTER 08Z AT ALL
SITES... LASTING THROUGH 13Z WED MORNING. THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
ERN NC WILL HAVE DISSIPATED WITH SURFACE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE SW
WED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR... SO CLOUD BASES SHOULD RISE TO VFR BY 15Z WED MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THU
(ALTHOUGH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING). EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH SAT WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...BLAES/KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 220628
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK... RESULTING IN A MOIST FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY... THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DECENT
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WITHIN A MOIST AND VOLATILE AIR MASS... WITH
ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. LATEST SURFACE
MAP SHOWS THE FRONTAL ZONE WINDING AROUND THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
STATES AND ACROSS COASTAL NC... LEADING TO A VERY LIGHT FLOW FROM
THE NE OR E INTO NC. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC-SOURCE
MOISTURE PUMPING INTO THE AREA... AND ALOFT AS WELL AS THE DAMP
SURGE EAST AND NORTH OF THE GULF COAST LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY... DRAWING IN DEEPER MOISTURE OFF FL AND THE BAHAMAS.
GOES SOUNDER PW VALUES ARE WIDESPREAD 2.0-2.5 OVER NC (HIGHEST
ACROSS SRN NC)... AND WHILE THE BLENDED TPW AND GSO UA VALUES ARE A
BIT LOWER THEY`RE STILL 120-150% OF NORMAL. MODELS SHOW THE HIGHER
PW CONTINUE TO SURGE TO THE WNW INTO CENTRAL NC ON THE CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SE AND E TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BEST
COVERAGE COULD HOLD OVER ERN NC AS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL HOLD EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY... ALONG AND EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. BUT THIS
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY IN FAVOR OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH AS
THE OFFSHORE RIDGE BECOMES A BIT MORE DOMINANT WITH THE WESTWARD
NUDGE OF THE GULF UPPER LOW... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP
LCL-0C LAYER SUPPORTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND HIGH PRECIP
EFFICIENCY. WILL TAKE POPS UP TO 50-60%... SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH
FIRST THEN TOWARD THE NNW. COVERAGE SHOULD TAPER DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY
TO ISOLATED DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A
GREATER WESTERLY COMPONENT. WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK... GIVEN THE HIGH-PW AND HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY COUPLED WITH
THE ALREADY-WET GROUND MOST PLACES. MBE MOVEMENT SHOULD BE A BIT
GREATER THAN MONDAY... BUT WITH WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS... SOME
SLOWER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS COULD STILL DROP HIGH RAIN TOTALS.
HOWEVER... OVERALL LOW COVERAGE OF THESE HIGHER TOTALS HOWEVER
PRECLUDE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HIGHS 83-88. LOWS
TONIGHT 71-75 WITH MORE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...


AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY VALUES OF AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERWHELMING AND LIKELY
MOST FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND TO THE WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
88 TO 92 RANGE ARE SUPPORTED BY CONSENSUS THICKNESS VALUES AND IN
BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE. SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS APT TO CONTINUE IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THEN BECOME
ISOLATED OVERNIGHT...AGAIN THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND PERHAPS MORE SO IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO
THE UPPER TROUGH AND AS CONVECTION INITIATED NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
MOVES EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND
SOME MIXING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE
PIEDMONT DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC IS POSSIBLY EVEN MORE MOIST THAN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. EXPECT A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY A BIT. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KTS RANGE AND SUPPORT MORE
CONVECTIVE STORM ORGANIZATION AND A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT.
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. MAX TEMP
GUIDANCE IS EVEN WARMER COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING S HIGHS IN THE 94-95 RANGE AT RDU AND FAY. NOT
READY TO GO THAT HIGH BUT WE HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPS A BIT AND IF
CLOUDS COVER IS LESS THAN EXPECTED...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE EAST.
HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 88 TO 93 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT SLOWLY CLEARS CENTRAL NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN STALLS
ALONG THE NC COAST AND EXTENDS BACK INTO CENTRAL SC BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS ON
FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN ON THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY MAXES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO THE NORTHWEST
AND UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTHEAST. -BLAES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT LINGERS SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION. SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE BETTER
DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A LIMITED THREAT OF CONVECTION...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY AND
BRINGS AN INCREASED THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGER THE
UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FASTER THAN THE GFS...FOR NOW WILL OPT FOR THE
DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AND DECREASE POPS FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONG TERM RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM TUESDAY...

ABOVE-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND 12Z OR 13Z AT ALL TAF AIRFIELDS. CIGS AND VSBYS CURRENTLY SIT
AT VFR OR MVFR... BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR BY 07Z
OR 08Z... WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS. CIGS SHOULD RISE SLOWLY TO MVFR BY
15Z WITH VSBYS CLIMBING TO VFR... THEN MVFR CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR
BY 17Z OR 18Z. ISOLD SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING WILL LIKELY GIVE
WAY TO GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES WITH RISING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE... ALTHOUGH AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY... THE DIFFICULTY LIES IN TRYING TO DETERMINE WHICH
SITE WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT LOOKS LIKE FAY
COULD SEE THE FIRST DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS BY THE NOON
HOUR... WITH ACTIVITY THEN SPREADING TO THE NORTH AND NW TO THE REST
OF THE TAF SITES AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON. OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN WE SAW
MONDAY. CIGS SHOULD HEAD BACK DOWN TO MVFR AFTER SUNDOWN.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH DEW POINTS STILL
HIGH... IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN AFTER 08Z AT ALL
SITES... LASTING THROUGH 13Z WED MORNING. THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
ERN NC WILL HAVE DISSIPATED WITH SURFACE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE SW
WED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR... SO CLOUD BASES SHOULD RISE TO VFR BY 15Z WED MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THU
(ALTHOUGH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING). EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH SAT WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLAES/DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 220628
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK... RESULTING IN A MOIST FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY... THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT: WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DECENT
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WITHIN A MOIST AND VOLATILE AIR MASS... WITH
ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. LATEST SURFACE
MAP SHOWS THE FRONTAL ZONE WINDING AROUND THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
STATES AND ACROSS COASTAL NC... LEADING TO A VERY LIGHT FLOW FROM
THE NE OR E INTO NC. THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC-SOURCE
MOISTURE PUMPING INTO THE AREA... AND ALOFT AS WELL AS THE DAMP
SURGE EAST AND NORTH OF THE GULF COAST LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY... DRAWING IN DEEPER MOISTURE OFF FL AND THE BAHAMAS.
GOES SOUNDER PW VALUES ARE WIDESPREAD 2.0-2.5 OVER NC (HIGHEST
ACROSS SRN NC)... AND WHILE THE BLENDED TPW AND GSO UA VALUES ARE A
BIT LOWER THEY`RE STILL 120-150% OF NORMAL. MODELS SHOW THE HIGHER
PW CONTINUE TO SURGE TO THE WNW INTO CENTRAL NC ON THE CYCLONIC MID
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SE AND E TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BEST
COVERAGE COULD HOLD OVER ERN NC AS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL HOLD EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY... ALONG AND EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. BUT THIS
FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY IN FAVOR OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH AS
THE OFFSHORE RIDGE BECOMES A BIT MORE DOMINANT WITH THE WESTWARD
NUDGE OF THE GULF UPPER LOW... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP
LCL-0C LAYER SUPPORTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND HIGH PRECIP
EFFICIENCY. WILL TAKE POPS UP TO 50-60%... SPREADING INTO THE SOUTH
FIRST THEN TOWARD THE NNW. COVERAGE SHOULD TAPER DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY
TO ISOLATED DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A
GREATER WESTERLY COMPONENT. WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK... GIVEN THE HIGH-PW AND HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY COUPLED WITH
THE ALREADY-WET GROUND MOST PLACES. MBE MOVEMENT SHOULD BE A BIT
GREATER THAN MONDAY... BUT WITH WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS... SOME
SLOWER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS COULD STILL DROP HIGH RAIN TOTALS.
HOWEVER... OVERALL LOW COVERAGE OF THESE HIGHER TOTALS HOWEVER
PRECLUDE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. HIGHS 83-88. LOWS
TONIGHT 71-75 WITH MORE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...


AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY VALUES OF AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERWHELMING AND LIKELY
MOST FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND TO THE WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
88 TO 92 RANGE ARE SUPPORTED BY CONSENSUS THICKNESS VALUES AND IN
BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE. SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS APT TO CONTINUE IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THEN BECOME
ISOLATED OVERNIGHT...AGAIN THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND PERHAPS MORE SO IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO
THE UPPER TROUGH AND AS CONVECTION INITIATED NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
MOVES EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND
SOME MIXING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE
PIEDMONT DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC IS POSSIBLY EVEN MORE MOIST THAN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. EXPECT A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY A BIT. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KTS RANGE AND SUPPORT MORE
CONVECTIVE STORM ORGANIZATION AND A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT.
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. MAX TEMP
GUIDANCE IS EVEN WARMER COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING S HIGHS IN THE 94-95 RANGE AT RDU AND FAY. NOT
READY TO GO THAT HIGH BUT WE HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPS A BIT AND IF
CLOUDS COVER IS LESS THAN EXPECTED...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE EAST.
HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 88 TO 93 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT SLOWLY CLEARS CENTRAL NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN STALLS
ALONG THE NC COAST AND EXTENDS BACK INTO CENTRAL SC BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS ON
FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN ON THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY MAXES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO THE NORTHWEST
AND UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTHEAST. -BLAES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT LINGERS SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION. SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE BETTER
DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A LIMITED THREAT OF CONVECTION...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY AND
BRINGS AN INCREASED THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGER THE
UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FASTER THAN THE GFS...FOR NOW WILL OPT FOR THE
DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AND DECREASE POPS FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONG TERM RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM TUESDAY...

ABOVE-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND 12Z OR 13Z AT ALL TAF AIRFIELDS. CIGS AND VSBYS CURRENTLY SIT
AT VFR OR MVFR... BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR BY 07Z
OR 08Z... WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS. CIGS SHOULD RISE SLOWLY TO MVFR BY
15Z WITH VSBYS CLIMBING TO VFR... THEN MVFR CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR
BY 17Z OR 18Z. ISOLD SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING WILL LIKELY GIVE
WAY TO GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES WITH RISING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE... ALTHOUGH AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY... THE DIFFICULTY LIES IN TRYING TO DETERMINE WHICH
SITE WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT LOOKS LIKE FAY
COULD SEE THE FIRST DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS BY THE NOON
HOUR... WITH ACTIVITY THEN SPREADING TO THE NORTH AND NW TO THE REST
OF THE TAF SITES AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON. OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN WE SAW
MONDAY. CIGS SHOULD HEAD BACK DOWN TO MVFR AFTER SUNDOWN.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH DEW POINTS STILL
HIGH... IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN AFTER 08Z AT ALL
SITES... LASTING THROUGH 13Z WED MORNING. THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
ERN NC WILL HAVE DISSIPATED WITH SURFACE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE SW
WED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR... SO CLOUD BASES SHOULD RISE TO VFR BY 15Z WED MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THU
(ALTHOUGH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING). EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH SAT WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLAES/DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 220455
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1250 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK... RESULTING IN A MOIST FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY... THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 910 PM MONDAY...

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE WELL TURNED OVER BOUNDARY LAYER.
ALTHOUGH IT CONTINUED TO BE EXTREMELY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
70S... CONDITIONS HAD GREATLY STABILIZED BY EARLIER CONVECTION AND
THE ONSET OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
POSSIBLE... BUT MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN - THEREFORE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE.
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ENSURE THAT THE DEW POINTS
REMAIN HIGH... WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH AS WE KICK OFF THE DAY WITH IN-SITU
DAMMED AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE HIGHS TOMORROW ON THE GFS
REACH THE LOW 90S...WHICH IS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN MORNING LOW
CLOUDINESS AND EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW. WILL TREND TOWARDS
MID 80S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POP-WISE... THE UPPER LOW WILL
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY...MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST. DEEPER RIDGING WILL
RETROGRADE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT... VEERING THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...WEAKENING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
WITH NO AIR MASS CHANGE...MINS AGAIN WILL BE AROUND 70.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY VALUES OF AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERWHELMING AND LIKELY
MOST FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND TO THE WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
88 TO 92 RANGE ARE SUPPORTED BY CONSENSUS THICKNESS VALUES AND IN
BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE. SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS APT TO CONTINUE IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THEN BECOME
ISOLATED OVERNIGHT...AGAIN THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND PERHAPS MORE SO IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO
THE UPPER TROUGH AND AS CONVECTION INITIATED NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
MOVES EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND
SOME MIXING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE
PIEDMONT DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC IS POSSIBLY EVEN MORE MOIST THAN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. EXPECT A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY A BIT. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KTS RANGE AND SUPPORT MORE
CONVECTIVE STORM ORGANIZATION AND A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT.
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. MAX TEMP
GUIDANCE IS EVEN WARMER COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING S HIGHS IN THE 94-95 RANGE AT RDU AND FAY. NOT
READY TO GO THAT HIGH BUT WE HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPS A BIT AND IF
CLOUDS COVER IS LESS THAN EXPECTED...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE EAST.
HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 88 TO 93 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT SLOWLY CLEARS CENTRAL NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN STALLS
ALONG THE NC COAST AND EXTENDS BACK INTO CENTRAL SC BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS ON
FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN ON THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY MAXES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO THE NORTHWEST
AND UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTHEAST. -BLAES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT LINGERS SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION. SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE BETTER
DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A LIMITED THREAT OF CONVECTION...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY AND
BRINGS AN INCREASED THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGER THE
UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FASTER THAN THE GFS...FOR NOW WILL OPT FOR THE
DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AND DECREASE POPS FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONG TERM RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM TUESDAY...

ABOVE-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND 12Z OR 13Z AT ALL TAF AIRFIELDS. CIGS AND VSBYS CURRENTLY SIT
AT VFR OR MVFR... BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR BY 07Z
OR 08Z... WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS. CIGS SHOULD RISE SLOWLY TO MVFR BY
15Z WITH VSBYS CLIMBING TO VFR... THEN MVFR CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR
BY 17Z OR 18Z. ISOLD SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING WILL LIKELY GIVE
WAY TO GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES WITH RISING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE... ALTHOUGH AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY... THE DIFFICULTY LIES IN TRYING TO DETERMINE WHICH
SITE WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT LOOKS LIKE FAY
COULD SEE THE FIRST DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS BY THE NOON
HOUR... WITH ACTIVITY THEN SPREADING TO THE NORTH AND NW TO THE REST
OF THE TAF SITES AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON. OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN WE SAW
MONDAY. CIGS SHOULD HEAD BACK DOWN TO MVFR AFTER SUNDOWN.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH DEW POINTS STILL
HIGH... IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN AFTER 08Z AT ALL
SITES... LASTING THROUGH 13Z WED MORNING. THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
ERN NC WILL HAVE DISSIPATED WITH SURFACE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE SW
WED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR... SO CLOUD BASES SHOULD RISE TO VFR BY 15Z WED MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THU
(ALTHOUGH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING). EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH SAT WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...32
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLAES/DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 220455
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1250 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK... RESULTING IN A MOIST FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY... THEN SETTLE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 910 PM MONDAY...

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE WELL TURNED OVER BOUNDARY LAYER.
ALTHOUGH IT CONTINUED TO BE EXTREMELY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
70S... CONDITIONS HAD GREATLY STABILIZED BY EARLIER CONVECTION AND
THE ONSET OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
POSSIBLE... BUT MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN - THEREFORE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE.
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ENSURE THAT THE DEW POINTS
REMAIN HIGH... WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH AS WE KICK OFF THE DAY WITH IN-SITU
DAMMED AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE HIGHS TOMORROW ON THE GFS
REACH THE LOW 90S...WHICH IS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN MORNING LOW
CLOUDINESS AND EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW. WILL TREND TOWARDS
MID 80S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POP-WISE... THE UPPER LOW WILL
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY...MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST. DEEPER RIDGING WILL
RETROGRADE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT... VEERING THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...WEAKENING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
WITH NO AIR MASS CHANGE...MINS AGAIN WILL BE AROUND 70.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY VALUES OF AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERWHELMING AND LIKELY
MOST FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND TO THE WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
88 TO 92 RANGE ARE SUPPORTED BY CONSENSUS THICKNESS VALUES AND IN
BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE. SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS APT TO CONTINUE IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THEN BECOME
ISOLATED OVERNIGHT...AGAIN THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND PERHAPS MORE SO IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO
THE UPPER TROUGH AND AS CONVECTION INITIATED NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
MOVES EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND
SOME MIXING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE
PIEDMONT DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC IS POSSIBLY EVEN MORE MOIST THAN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. EXPECT A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY A BIT. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KTS RANGE AND SUPPORT MORE
CONVECTIVE STORM ORGANIZATION AND A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT.
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. MAX TEMP
GUIDANCE IS EVEN WARMER COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING S HIGHS IN THE 94-95 RANGE AT RDU AND FAY. NOT
READY TO GO THAT HIGH BUT WE HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPS A BIT AND IF
CLOUDS COVER IS LESS THAN EXPECTED...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE EAST.
HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 88 TO 93 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT SLOWLY CLEARS CENTRAL NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN STALLS
ALONG THE NC COAST AND EXTENDS BACK INTO CENTRAL SC BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS ON
FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN ON THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY MAXES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO THE NORTHWEST
AND UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTHEAST. -BLAES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT LINGERS SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION. SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE BETTER
DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A LIMITED THREAT OF CONVECTION...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY AND
BRINGS AN INCREASED THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGER THE
UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FASTER THAN THE GFS...FOR NOW WILL OPT FOR THE
DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AND DECREASE POPS FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONG TERM RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM TUESDAY...

ABOVE-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND 12Z OR 13Z AT ALL TAF AIRFIELDS. CIGS AND VSBYS CURRENTLY SIT
AT VFR OR MVFR... BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR BY 07Z
OR 08Z... WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS. CIGS SHOULD RISE SLOWLY TO MVFR BY
15Z WITH VSBYS CLIMBING TO VFR... THEN MVFR CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR
BY 17Z OR 18Z. ISOLD SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING WILL LIKELY GIVE
WAY TO GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES WITH RISING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE... ALTHOUGH AS WAS THE
CASE YESTERDAY... THE DIFFICULTY LIES IN TRYING TO DETERMINE WHICH
SITE WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT LOOKS LIKE FAY
COULD SEE THE FIRST DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS BY THE NOON
HOUR... WITH ACTIVITY THEN SPREADING TO THE NORTH AND NW TO THE REST
OF THE TAF SITES AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON. OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN WE SAW
MONDAY. CIGS SHOULD HEAD BACK DOWN TO MVFR AFTER SUNDOWN.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH DEW POINTS STILL
HIGH... IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN AFTER 08Z AT ALL
SITES... LASTING THROUGH 13Z WED MORNING. THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
ERN NC WILL HAVE DISSIPATED WITH SURFACE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE SW
WED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR... SO CLOUD BASES SHOULD RISE TO VFR BY 15Z WED MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THU
(ALTHOUGH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING). EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH SAT WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...32
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLAES/DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 220115
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
915 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MEANDER OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A MOIST FLOW.
WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING HOTTER WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 910 PM MONDAY...

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE WELL TURNED OVER BOUNDARY LAYER.
ALTHOUGH IT CONTINUED TO BE EXTREMELY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
70S... CONDITIONS HAD GREATLY STABILIZED BY EARLIER CONVECTION AND
THE ONSET OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
POSSIBLE... BUT MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN - THEREFORE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE.
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ENSURE THAT THE DEW POINTS
REMAIN HIGH... WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH AS WE KICK OFF THE DAY WITH IN-SITU
DAMMED AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE HIGHS TOMORROW ON THE GFS
REACH THE LOW 90S...WHICH IS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN MORNING LOW
CLOUDINESS AND EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW. WILL TREND TOWARDS
MID 80S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POP-WISE... THE UPPER LOW WILL
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY...MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST. DEEPER RIDGING WILL
RETROGRADE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT... VEERING THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...WEAKENING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
WITH NO AIR MASS CHANGE...MINS AGAIN WILL BE AROUND 70.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY VALUES OF AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERWHELMING AND LIKELY
MOST FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND TO THE WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
88 TO 92 RANGE ARE SUPPORTED BY CONSENSUS THICKNESS VALUES AND IN
BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE. SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS APT TO CONTINUE IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THEN BECOME
ISOLATED OVERNIGHT...AGAIN THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND PERHAPS MORE SO IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO
THE UPPER TROUGH AND AS CONVECTION INITIATED NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
MOVES EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND
SOME MIXING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE
PIEDMONT DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC IS POSSIBLY EVEN MORE MOIST THAN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. EXPECT A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY A BIT. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KTS RANGE AND SUPPORT MORE
CONVECTIVE STORM ORGANIZATION AND A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT.
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. MAX TEMP
GUIDANCE IS EVEN WARMER COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING S HIGHS IN THE 94-95 RANGE AT RDU AND FAY. NOT
READY TO GO THAT HIGH BUT WE HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPS A BIT AND IF
CLOUDS COVER IS LESS THAN EXPECTED...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE EAST.
HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 88 TO 93 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT SLOWLY CLEARS CENTRAL NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN STALLS
ALONG THE NC COAST AND EXTENDS BACK INTO CENTRAL SC BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS ON
FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN ON THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY MAXES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO THE NORTHWEST
AND UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTHEAST. -BLAES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT LINGERS SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION. SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE BETTER
DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A LIMITED THREAT OF CONVECTION...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY AND
BRINGS AN INCREASED THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGER THE
UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FASTER THAN THE GFS...FOR NOW WILL OPT FOR THE
DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AND DECREASE POPS FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONG TERM RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM MONDAY...

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS (AND THEIR ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS)
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS NOCTURNAL COOLING COMMENCES.
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 02-06Z AND WILL
THEN LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY BEFORE
LIFTING TO VFR BY 16-18Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF
THE WEEK. SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL (AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING)
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...32
NEAR TERM...32
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLAES/DJF
AVIATION...KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 220115
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
915 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MEANDER OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A MOIST FLOW.
WEAK RIDGING WILL BRING HOTTER WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 910 PM MONDAY...

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE WELL TURNED OVER BOUNDARY LAYER.
ALTHOUGH IT CONTINUED TO BE EXTREMELY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
70S... CONDITIONS HAD GREATLY STABILIZED BY EARLIER CONVECTION AND
THE ONSET OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
POSSIBLE... BUT MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN - THEREFORE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE.
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ENSURE THAT THE DEW POINTS
REMAIN HIGH... WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH AS WE KICK OFF THE DAY WITH IN-SITU
DAMMED AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE HIGHS TOMORROW ON THE GFS
REACH THE LOW 90S...WHICH IS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN MORNING LOW
CLOUDINESS AND EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW. WILL TREND TOWARDS
MID 80S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POP-WISE... THE UPPER LOW WILL
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY...MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST. DEEPER RIDGING WILL
RETROGRADE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT... VEERING THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...WEAKENING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
WITH NO AIR MASS CHANGE...MINS AGAIN WILL BE AROUND 70.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY VALUES OF AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERWHELMING AND LIKELY
MOST FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND TO THE WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
88 TO 92 RANGE ARE SUPPORTED BY CONSENSUS THICKNESS VALUES AND IN
BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE. SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS APT TO CONTINUE IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THEN BECOME
ISOLATED OVERNIGHT...AGAIN THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND PERHAPS MORE SO IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO
THE UPPER TROUGH AND AS CONVECTION INITIATED NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
MOVES EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND
SOME MIXING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE
PIEDMONT DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC IS POSSIBLY EVEN MORE MOIST THAN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. EXPECT A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY A BIT. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KTS RANGE AND SUPPORT MORE
CONVECTIVE STORM ORGANIZATION AND A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT.
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. MAX TEMP
GUIDANCE IS EVEN WARMER COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING S HIGHS IN THE 94-95 RANGE AT RDU AND FAY. NOT
READY TO GO THAT HIGH BUT WE HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPS A BIT AND IF
CLOUDS COVER IS LESS THAN EXPECTED...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE EAST.
HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 88 TO 93 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT SLOWLY CLEARS CENTRAL NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN STALLS
ALONG THE NC COAST AND EXTENDS BACK INTO CENTRAL SC BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS ON
FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN ON THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY MAXES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO THE NORTHWEST
AND UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTHEAST. -BLAES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT LINGERS SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION. SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE BETTER
DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A LIMITED THREAT OF CONVECTION...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY AND
BRINGS AN INCREASED THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGER THE
UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FASTER THAN THE GFS...FOR NOW WILL OPT FOR THE
DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AND DECREASE POPS FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONG TERM RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM MONDAY...

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS (AND THEIR ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS)
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS NOCTURNAL COOLING COMMENCES.
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 02-06Z AND WILL
THEN LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY BEFORE
LIFTING TO VFR BY 16-18Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF
THE WEEK. SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL (AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING)
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...32
NEAR TERM...32
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLAES/DJF
AVIATION...KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 212357
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
757 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL HOLD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A MOIST ATLANTIC FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA... AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH HAS BEEN EJECTING
IMPULSES AND A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THESE IMPULSES HAVE PROVIDED ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR CLUSTERS AND
LINES OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOVE THE COOLER AND STABLE
SURFACE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. CONCURRENTLY...SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED...WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
BREAKING OUT DUE TO THE ENSUING ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS
SUCH...CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...GRADUATED TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN WANING AS THE STABLE RAIN-COOLED SURFACE BASED LAYER HAS
DEEPENED. THIS WANING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
THE THREAT OF MERGERS AND TRAINING HEAVY SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL SCALE
POPS BACK TO CHANCE IN THE WEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES EAST BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH A MILD HUMID MORNING ON TAP WITH LOWS WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF 70.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH AS WE KICK OFF THE DAY WITH IN-SITU
DAMMED AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE HIGHS TOMORROW ON THE GFS
REACH THE LOW 90S...WHICH IS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN MORNING LOW
CLOUDINESS AND EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW. WILL TREND TOWARDS
MID 80S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POP-WISE... THE UPPER LOW WILL
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY...MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST. DEEPER RIDGING WILL
RETROGRADE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT... VEERING THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...WEAKENING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
WITH NO AIR MASS CHANGE...MINS AGAIN WILL BE AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY VALUES OF AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERWHELMING AND LIKELY
MOST FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND TO THE WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
88 TO 92 RANGE ARE SUPPORTED BY CONSENSUS THICKNESS VALUES AND IN
BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE. SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS APT TO CONTINUE IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THEN BECOME
ISOLATED OVERNIGHT...AGAIN THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND PERHAPS MORE SO IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO
THE UPPER TROUGH AND AS CONVECTION INITIATED NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
MOVES EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND
SOME MIXING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE
PIEDMONT DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC IS POSSIBLY EVEN MORE MOIST THAN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. EXPECT A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY A BIT. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KTS RANGE AND SUPPORT MORE
CONVECTIVE STORM ORGANIZATION AND A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT.
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. MAX TEMP
GUIDANCE IS EVEN WARMER COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING S HIGHS IN THE 94-95 RANGE AT RDU AND FAY. NOT
READY TO GO THAT HIGH BUT WE HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPS A BIT AND IF
CLOUDS COVER IS LESS THAN EXPECTED...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE EAST.
HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 88 TO 93 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT SLOWLY CLEARS CENTRAL NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN STALLS
ALONG THE NC COAST AND EXTENDS BACK INTO CENTRAL SC BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS ON
FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN ON THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY MAXES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO THE NORTHWEST
AND UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTHEAST. -BLAES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT LINGERS SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION. SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE BETTER
DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A LIMITED THREAT OF CONVECTION...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY AND
BRINGS AN INCREASED THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGER THE
UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FASTER THAN THE GFS...FOR NOW WILL OPT FOR THE
DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AND DECREASE POPS FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONG TERM RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM MONDAY...

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS (AND THEIR ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS)
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS NOCTURNAL COOLING COMMENCES.
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 02-06Z AND WILL
THEN LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY BEFORE
LIFTING TO VFR BY 16-18Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF
THE WEEK. SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL (AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING)
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLAES/DJF
AVIATION...KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 212357
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
757 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL HOLD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A MOIST ATLANTIC FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA... AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH HAS BEEN EJECTING
IMPULSES AND A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THESE IMPULSES HAVE PROVIDED ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR CLUSTERS AND
LINES OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOVE THE COOLER AND STABLE
SURFACE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. CONCURRENTLY...SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED...WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
BREAKING OUT DUE TO THE ENSUING ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS
SUCH...CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...GRADUATED TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN WANING AS THE STABLE RAIN-COOLED SURFACE BASED LAYER HAS
DEEPENED. THIS WANING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
THE THREAT OF MERGERS AND TRAINING HEAVY SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL SCALE
POPS BACK TO CHANCE IN THE WEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES EAST BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH A MILD HUMID MORNING ON TAP WITH LOWS WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF 70.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH AS WE KICK OFF THE DAY WITH IN-SITU
DAMMED AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE HIGHS TOMORROW ON THE GFS
REACH THE LOW 90S...WHICH IS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN MORNING LOW
CLOUDINESS AND EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW. WILL TREND TOWARDS
MID 80S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POP-WISE... THE UPPER LOW WILL
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY...MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST. DEEPER RIDGING WILL
RETROGRADE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT... VEERING THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...WEAKENING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
WITH NO AIR MASS CHANGE...MINS AGAIN WILL BE AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY VALUES OF AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERWHELMING AND LIKELY
MOST FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND TO THE WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
88 TO 92 RANGE ARE SUPPORTED BY CONSENSUS THICKNESS VALUES AND IN
BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE. SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS APT TO CONTINUE IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THEN BECOME
ISOLATED OVERNIGHT...AGAIN THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND PERHAPS MORE SO IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO
THE UPPER TROUGH AND AS CONVECTION INITIATED NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
MOVES EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND
SOME MIXING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE
PIEDMONT DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC IS POSSIBLY EVEN MORE MOIST THAN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. EXPECT A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY A BIT. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KTS RANGE AND SUPPORT MORE
CONVECTIVE STORM ORGANIZATION AND A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT.
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. MAX TEMP
GUIDANCE IS EVEN WARMER COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING S HIGHS IN THE 94-95 RANGE AT RDU AND FAY. NOT
READY TO GO THAT HIGH BUT WE HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPS A BIT AND IF
CLOUDS COVER IS LESS THAN EXPECTED...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE EAST.
HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 88 TO 93 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT SLOWLY CLEARS CENTRAL NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN STALLS
ALONG THE NC COAST AND EXTENDS BACK INTO CENTRAL SC BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS ON
FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN ON THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY MAXES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO THE NORTHWEST
AND UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTHEAST. -BLAES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT LINGERS SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION. SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE BETTER
DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A LIMITED THREAT OF CONVECTION...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY AND
BRINGS AN INCREASED THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGER THE
UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FASTER THAN THE GFS...FOR NOW WILL OPT FOR THE
DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AND DECREASE POPS FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONG TERM RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM MONDAY...

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS (AND THEIR ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS)
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS NOCTURNAL COOLING COMMENCES.
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 02-06Z AND WILL
THEN LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY BEFORE
LIFTING TO VFR BY 16-18Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF
THE WEEK. SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL (AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING)
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLAES/DJF
AVIATION...KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 211921
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL HOLD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A MOIST ATLANTIC FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA... AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH HAS BEEN EJECTING
IMPULSES AND A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THESE IMPULSES HAVE PROVIDED ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR CLUSTERS AND
LINES OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOVE THE COOLER AND STABLE
SURFACE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. CONCURRENTLY...SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED...WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
BREAKING OUT DUE TO THE ENSUING ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS
SUCH...CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...GRADUATED TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN WANING AS THE STABLE RAIN-COOLED SURFACE BASED LAYER HAS
DEEPENED. THIS WANING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
THE THREAT OF MERGERS AND TRAINING HEAVY SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL SCALE
POPS BACK TO CHANCE IN THE WEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES EAST BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH A MILD HUMID MORNING ON TAP WITH LOWS WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF 70.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH AS WE KICK OFF THE DAY WITH IN-SITU
DAMMED AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE HIGHS TOMORROW ON THE GFS
REACH THE LOW 90S...WHICH IS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN MORNING LOW
CLOUDINESS AND EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW. WILL TREND TOWARDS
MID 80S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POP-WISE... THE UPPER LOW WILL
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY...MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST. DEEPER RIDGING WILL
RETROGRADE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT... VEERING THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...WEAKENING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
WITH NO AIR MASS CHANGE...MINS AGAIN WILL BE AROUND 70.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY VALUES OF AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERWHELMING AND LIKELY
MOST FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND TO THE WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
88 TO 92 RANGE ARE SUPPORTED BY CONSENSUS THICKNESS VALUES AND IN
BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE. SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS APT TO CONTINUE IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THEN BECOME
ISOLATED OVERNIGHT...AGAIN THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND PERHAPS MORE SO IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO
THE UPPER TROUGH AND AS CONVECTION INITIATED NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
MOVES EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND
SOME MIXING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE
PIEDMONT DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC IS POSSIBLY EVEN MORE MOIST THAN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. EXPECT A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY A BIT. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KTS RANGE AND SUPPORT MORE
CONVECTIVE STORM ORGANIZATION AND A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT.
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. MAX TEMP
GUIDANCE IS EVEN WARMER COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING S HIGHS IN THE 94-95 RANGE AT RDU AND FAY. NOT
READY TO GO THAT HIGH BUT WE HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPS A BIT AND IF
CLOUDS COVER IS LESS THAN EXPECTED...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE EAST.
HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 88 TO 93 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT SLOWLY CLEARS CENTRAL NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN STALLS
ALONG THE NC COAST AND EXTENDS BACK INTO CENTRAL SC BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS ON
FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN ON THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY MAXES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO THE NORTHWEST
AND UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTHEAST. -BLAES
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT LINGERS SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION. SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE BETTER
DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A LIMITED THREAT OF CONVECTION...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY AND
BRINGS AN INCREASED THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGER THE
UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FASTER THAN THE GFS...FOR NOW WILL OPT FOR THE
DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AND DECREASE POPS FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONG TERM RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. -BLAES
&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM MONDAY...

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO SHORT TERM DETAILS AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN...
WITH SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED IN THE
MOIST AND QUITE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE LARGELY VFR WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN AND SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING...AFTER 02Z...BUT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS WE COOL
OVERNIGHT. MVFR VISIBILITY AND IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD
IN THE USUAL 08-13Z TIME FRAME...POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO THE MID MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR-VFR CEILINGS BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...WE REMAIN IN THE UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY.
SCATTERED MAINLY LATE DAY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLAES/DJF
AVIATION...MLM





000
FXUS62 KRAH 211921
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL HOLD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A MOIST ATLANTIC FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA... AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH HAS BEEN EJECTING
IMPULSES AND A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THESE IMPULSES HAVE PROVIDED ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR CLUSTERS AND
LINES OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOVE THE COOLER AND STABLE
SURFACE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. CONCURRENTLY...SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED...WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
BREAKING OUT DUE TO THE ENSUING ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS
SUCH...CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...GRADUATED TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN WANING AS THE STABLE RAIN-COOLED SURFACE BASED LAYER HAS
DEEPENED. THIS WANING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
THE THREAT OF MERGERS AND TRAINING HEAVY SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL SCALE
POPS BACK TO CHANCE IN THE WEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES EAST BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH A MILD HUMID MORNING ON TAP WITH LOWS WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF 70.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH AS WE KICK OFF THE DAY WITH IN-SITU
DAMMED AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE HIGHS TOMORROW ON THE GFS
REACH THE LOW 90S...WHICH IS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN MORNING LOW
CLOUDINESS AND EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW. WILL TREND TOWARDS
MID 80S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POP-WISE... THE UPPER LOW WILL
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY...MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST. DEEPER RIDGING WILL
RETROGRADE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT... VEERING THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...WEAKENING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
WITH NO AIR MASS CHANGE...MINS AGAIN WILL BE AROUND 70.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY VALUES OF AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERWHELMING AND LIKELY
MOST FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND TO THE WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
88 TO 92 RANGE ARE SUPPORTED BY CONSENSUS THICKNESS VALUES AND IN
BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE. SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS APT TO CONTINUE IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THEN BECOME
ISOLATED OVERNIGHT...AGAIN THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND PERHAPS MORE SO IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO
THE UPPER TROUGH AND AS CONVECTION INITIATED NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
MOVES EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND
SOME MIXING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE
PIEDMONT DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC IS POSSIBLY EVEN MORE MOIST THAN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. EXPECT A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY A BIT. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KTS RANGE AND SUPPORT MORE
CONVECTIVE STORM ORGANIZATION AND A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT.
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. MAX TEMP
GUIDANCE IS EVEN WARMER COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING S HIGHS IN THE 94-95 RANGE AT RDU AND FAY. NOT
READY TO GO THAT HIGH BUT WE HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPS A BIT AND IF
CLOUDS COVER IS LESS THAN EXPECTED...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE EAST.
HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 88 TO 93 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT SLOWLY CLEARS CENTRAL NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN STALLS
ALONG THE NC COAST AND EXTENDS BACK INTO CENTRAL SC BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS ON
FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN ON THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY MAXES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO THE NORTHWEST
AND UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTHEAST. -BLAES
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT LINGERS SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION. SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE BETTER
DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH A LIMITED THREAT OF CONVECTION...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY AND
BRINGS AN INCREASED THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF BRINGER THE
UPPER TROUGH THROUGH FASTER THAN THE GFS...FOR NOW WILL OPT FOR THE
DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION AND DECREASE POPS FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONG TERM RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. -BLAES
&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM MONDAY...

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO SHORT TERM DETAILS AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN...
WITH SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED IN THE
MOIST AND QUITE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE LARGELY VFR WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN AND SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING...AFTER 02Z...BUT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS WE COOL
OVERNIGHT. MVFR VISIBILITY AND IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD
IN THE USUAL 08-13Z TIME FRAME...POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO THE MID MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR-VFR CEILINGS BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...WE REMAIN IN THE UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY.
SCATTERED MAINLY LATE DAY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLAES/DJF
AVIATION...MLM




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211919
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL HOLD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A MOIST ATLANTIC FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA... AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH HAS BEEN EJECTING
IMPULSES AND A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THESE IMPULSES HAVE PROVIDED ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR CLUSTERS AND
LINES OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOVE THE COOLER AND STABLE
SURFACE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. CONCURRENTLY...SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED...WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
BREAKING OUT DUE TO THE ENSUING ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS
SUCH...CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...GRADUATED TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN WANING AS THE STABLE RAIN-COOLED SURFACE BASED LAYER HAS
DEEPENED. THIS WANING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
THE THREAT OF MERGERS AND TRAINING HEAVY SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL SCALE
POPS BACK TO CHANCE IN THE WEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES EAST BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH A MILD HUMID MORNING ON TAP WITH LOWS WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF 70.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH AS WE KICK OFF THE DAY WITH IN-SITU
DAMMED AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE HIGHS TOMORROW ON THE GFS
REACH THE LOW 90S...WHICH IS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN MORNING LOW
CLOUDINESS AND EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW. WILL TREND TOWARDS
MID 80S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POP-WISE... THE UPPER LOW WILL
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY...MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST. DEEPER RIDGING WILL
RETROGRADE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT... VEERING THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...WEAKENING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
WITH NO AIMRASS CHANGE...MINS AGAIN WILL BE AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY VALUES OF AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERWHELMING AND LIKELY
MOST FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND TO THE WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
88 TO 92 RANGE ARE SUPPORTED BY CONSENSUS THICKNESS VALUES AND IN
BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE. SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS APT TO CONTINUE IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THEN BECOME
ISOLATED OVERNIGHT...AGAIN THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND PERHAPS MORE SO IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO
THE UPPER TROUGH AND AS CONVECTION INITIATED NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
MOVES EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND
SOME MIXING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE
PIEDMONT DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC IS POSSIBLY EVEN MORE MOIST THAN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. EXPECT A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY A BIT. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KTS RANGE AND SUPPORT MORE
CONVECTIVE STORM ORGANIZATION AND A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT.
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. MAX TEMP
GUIDANCE IS EVEN WARMER COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING S HIGHS IN THE 94-95 RANGE AT RDU AND FAY. NOT
READY TO GO THAT HIGH BUT WE HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPS A BIT AND IF
CLOUDS COVER IS LESS THAN EXPECTED...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE EAST.
HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 88 TO 93 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT SLOWLY CLEARS CENTRAL NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN STALLS
ALONG THE NC COAST AND EXTENDS BACK INTO CENTRAL SC BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS ON
FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN ON THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY MAXES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO THE NORTHWEST
AND UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTHEAST. -BLAES
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER THE OH VALLEY
WEAKENS AND THE BOUNDARY THAT LINGERED ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
WASHED OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DOMINATING SURFACE
FEATURE AND THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH CHANCES FOR AFT/EVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM MONDAY...

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO SHORT TERM DETAILS AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN...
WITH SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED IN THE
MOIST AND QUITE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE LARGELY VFR WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN AND SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING...AFTER 02Z...BUT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS WE COOL
OVERNIGHT. MVFR VISIBILITY AND IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD
IN THE USUAL 08-13Z TIME FRAME...POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO THE MID MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR-VFR CEILINGS BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...WE REMAIN IN THE UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY.
SCATTERED MAINLY LATE DAY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...MLM




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211919
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL HOLD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A MOIST ATLANTIC FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA... AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH HAS BEEN EJECTING
IMPULSES AND A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THESE IMPULSES HAVE PROVIDED ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR CLUSTERS AND
LINES OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOVE THE COOLER AND STABLE
SURFACE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. CONCURRENTLY...SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED...WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
BREAKING OUT DUE TO THE ENSUING ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS
SUCH...CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...GRADUATED TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN WANING AS THE STABLE RAIN-COOLED SURFACE BASED LAYER HAS
DEEPENED. THIS WANING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
THE THREAT OF MERGERS AND TRAINING HEAVY SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL SCALE
POPS BACK TO CHANCE IN THE WEST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES EAST BY
MIDNIGHT...WITH A MILD HUMID MORNING ON TAP WITH LOWS WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF 70.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH AS WE KICK OFF THE DAY WITH IN-SITU
DAMMED AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE HIGHS TOMORROW ON THE GFS
REACH THE LOW 90S...WHICH IS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN MORNING LOW
CLOUDINESS AND EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW. WILL TREND TOWARDS
MID 80S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. POP-WISE... THE UPPER LOW WILL
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY...MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST. DEEPER RIDGING WILL
RETROGRADE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT... VEERING THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...WEAKENING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
WITH NO AIMRASS CHANGE...MINS AGAIN WILL BE AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY VALUES OF AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERWHELMING AND LIKELY
MOST FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND TO THE WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
88 TO 92 RANGE ARE SUPPORTED BY CONSENSUS THICKNESS VALUES AND IN
BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE. SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS APT TO CONTINUE IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THEN BECOME
ISOLATED OVERNIGHT...AGAIN THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND PERHAPS MORE SO IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO
THE UPPER TROUGH AND AS CONVECTION INITIATED NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
MOVES EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND
SOME MIXING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE
PIEDMONT DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC IS POSSIBLY EVEN MORE MOIST THAN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. EXPECT A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY A BIT. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KTS RANGE AND SUPPORT MORE
CONVECTIVE STORM ORGANIZATION AND A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT.
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. MAX TEMP
GUIDANCE IS EVEN WARMER COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING S HIGHS IN THE 94-95 RANGE AT RDU AND FAY. NOT
READY TO GO THAT HIGH BUT WE HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPS A BIT AND IF
CLOUDS COVER IS LESS THAN EXPECTED...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE EAST.
HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 88 TO 93 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT SLOWLY CLEARS CENTRAL NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN STALLS
ALONG THE NC COAST AND EXTENDS BACK INTO CENTRAL SC BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS ON
FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN ON THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY MAXES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO THE NORTHWEST
AND UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTHEAST. -BLAES
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER THE OH VALLEY
WEAKENS AND THE BOUNDARY THAT LINGERED ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
WASHED OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DOMINATING SURFACE
FEATURE AND THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH CHANCES FOR AFT/EVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM MONDAY...

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO SHORT TERM DETAILS AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN...
WITH SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED IN THE
MOIST AND QUITE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE LARGELY VFR WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN AND SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING...AFTER 02Z...BUT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS WE COOL
OVERNIGHT. MVFR VISIBILITY AND IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD
IN THE USUAL 08-13Z TIME FRAME...POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO THE MID MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR-VFR CEILINGS BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...WE REMAIN IN THE UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY.
SCATTERED MAINLY LATE DAY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...MLM





000
FXUS62 KRAH 211910
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL HOLD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A MOIST ATLANTIC FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA... AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM MONDAY...

UPDATE...UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER ALABAMA WILL SEND PERTURBATIONS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...CONCURRENT WITH WESTWARD ADVECTION OF
VERY MOIST AIR OFF THE ATLANTIC DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW. WE
WILL SEE COVERAGE INCREASE...SLOW MOVING CONVECTION ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BECOME
PROBLEMATIC FOR FLOODING IN AREAS WHERE THE STORMS MERGE OR TRAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: A DAMP AND VOLATILE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST THROUGH CENTRAL GA/SC AND ACROSS SE NC... ASSOCIATED WITH
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES AND MIDSOUTH.
THIS TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS TO A BAGGY CLOSED LOW OVER SRN AL/GA BY
TONIGHT... WITH A WEAK BUT DISTINCT SHEAR AXIS STRETCHING NE ACROSS
NC. PW VALUES ARE ALREADY ON THE HIGH SIDE (120-140% OF NORMAL) AND
ARE PROJECTED TO RISE FURTHER... SURPASSING 2 INCHES OVER NEARLY THE
ENTIRE CWA AND PERHAPS 2.25 INCHES IN THE SE CWA... AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SSE AND DRAWS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHILE
PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS PERSIST
WITHIN A WEAK STEERING REGIME. THE LATEST HIGH-RES AND CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PIEDMONT/WRN SANDHILLS WILL SEE THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON... WHICH WOULD THEN DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ERN
SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY MIDNIGHT. THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
THIS EVOLUTION BOOSTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE... AND WILL FOLLOW THIS
TREND IN THE FORECAST WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS EAST AND LIKELY WEST
EARLY... TRENDING DOWN IN THE WEST AND UP IN THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THAT THE FLOW IS SO WEAK WITH AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST COLUMN AND SUBTLE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY OUTFLOWS
AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING... SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD POP UP ANYWHERE
TODAY AND SIMPLY MEANDER. SLOW STORM MOTION AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM
LAYER (AROUND 3.5 KM) TO FOSTER WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL BRING A
RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY... ALTHOUGH NOT OVER A LARGE
ENOUGH AREA TO NECESSITATE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
RAINFALL COULD BE EXACERBATED OVER THE FAR WRN PIEDMONT WHERE LOW
LEVEL MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP THE RETREATING SHALLOW SURFACE RIDGE MAY
ENHANCE LIFT. WILL TREND POPS DOWN TO LOWER CHANCE TONIGHT... LOWER
IN THE NE AND BETTER IN THE SW WHERE MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL CUT DOWN ON HEATING
TODAY ESPECIALLY EAST AND SE... AND EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOW 80S NW
TO MID 80S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS 68-72... LARGELY FOLLOWING
PERSISTENCE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY VALUES OF AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERWHELMING AND LIKELY
MOST FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND TO THE WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
88 TO 92 RANGE ARE SUPPORTED BY CONSENSUS THICKNESS VALUES AND IN
BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE. SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS APT TO CONTINUE IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THEN BECOME
ISOLATED OVERNIGHT...AGAIN THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND PERHAPS MORE SO IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO
THE UPPER TROUGH AND AS CONVECTION INITIATED NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
MOVES EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND
SOME MIXING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE
PIEDMONT DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC IS POSSIBLY EVEN MORE MOIST THAN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. EXPECT A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY A BIT. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KTS RANGE AND SUPPORT MORE
CONVECTIVE STORM ORGANIZATION AND A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT.
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. MAX TEMP
GUIDANCE IS EVEN WARMER COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING S HIGHS IN THE 94-95 RANGE AT RDU AND FAY. NOT
READY TO GO THAT HIGH BUT WE HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPS A BIT AND IF
CLOUDS COVER IS LESS THAN EXPECTED...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE EAST.
HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 88 TO 93 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT SLOWLY CLEARS CENTRAL NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN STALLS
ALONG THE NC COAST AND EXTENDS BACK INTO CENTRAL SC BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS ON
FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN ON THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY MAXES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO THE NORTHWEST
AND UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTHEAST. -BLAES
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER THE OH VALLEY
WEAKENS AND THE BOUNDARY THAT LINGERED ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
WASHED OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DOMINATING SURFACE
FEATURE AND THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH CHANCES FOR AFT/EVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM MONDAY...

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO SHORT TERM DETAILS AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN...
WITH SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED IN THE
MOIST AND QUITE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE LARGELY VFR WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN AND SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING...AFTER 02Z...BUT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS WE COOL
OVERNIGHT. MVFR VISIBILITY AND IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD
IN THE USUAL 08-13Z TIME FRAME...POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO THE MID MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR-VFR CEILINGS BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...WE REMAIN IN THE UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY.
SCATTERED MAINLY LATE DAY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...MLM/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...MLM





000
FXUS62 KRAH 211910
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL HOLD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A MOIST ATLANTIC FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA... AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM MONDAY...

UPDATE...UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER ALABAMA WILL SEND PERTURBATIONS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...CONCURRENT WITH WESTWARD ADVECTION OF
VERY MOIST AIR OFF THE ATLANTIC DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW. WE
WILL SEE COVERAGE INCREASE...SLOW MOVING CONVECTION ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BECOME
PROBLEMATIC FOR FLOODING IN AREAS WHERE THE STORMS MERGE OR TRAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: A DAMP AND VOLATILE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST THROUGH CENTRAL GA/SC AND ACROSS SE NC... ASSOCIATED WITH
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES AND MIDSOUTH.
THIS TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS TO A BAGGY CLOSED LOW OVER SRN AL/GA BY
TONIGHT... WITH A WEAK BUT DISTINCT SHEAR AXIS STRETCHING NE ACROSS
NC. PW VALUES ARE ALREADY ON THE HIGH SIDE (120-140% OF NORMAL) AND
ARE PROJECTED TO RISE FURTHER... SURPASSING 2 INCHES OVER NEARLY THE
ENTIRE CWA AND PERHAPS 2.25 INCHES IN THE SE CWA... AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SSE AND DRAWS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHILE
PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS PERSIST
WITHIN A WEAK STEERING REGIME. THE LATEST HIGH-RES AND CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PIEDMONT/WRN SANDHILLS WILL SEE THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON... WHICH WOULD THEN DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ERN
SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY MIDNIGHT. THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
THIS EVOLUTION BOOSTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE... AND WILL FOLLOW THIS
TREND IN THE FORECAST WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS EAST AND LIKELY WEST
EARLY... TRENDING DOWN IN THE WEST AND UP IN THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THAT THE FLOW IS SO WEAK WITH AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST COLUMN AND SUBTLE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY OUTFLOWS
AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING... SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD POP UP ANYWHERE
TODAY AND SIMPLY MEANDER. SLOW STORM MOTION AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM
LAYER (AROUND 3.5 KM) TO FOSTER WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL BRING A
RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY... ALTHOUGH NOT OVER A LARGE
ENOUGH AREA TO NECESSITATE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
RAINFALL COULD BE EXACERBATED OVER THE FAR WRN PIEDMONT WHERE LOW
LEVEL MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP THE RETREATING SHALLOW SURFACE RIDGE MAY
ENHANCE LIFT. WILL TREND POPS DOWN TO LOWER CHANCE TONIGHT... LOWER
IN THE NE AND BETTER IN THE SW WHERE MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL CUT DOWN ON HEATING
TODAY ESPECIALLY EAST AND SE... AND EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOW 80S NW
TO MID 80S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS 68-72... LARGELY FOLLOWING
PERSISTENCE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL STAY WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WARM AND UNSTABLE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY VALUES OF AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG. THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERWHELMING AND LIKELY
MOST FOCUSED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
AND TO THE WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
88 TO 92 RANGE ARE SUPPORTED BY CONSENSUS THICKNESS VALUES AND IN
BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE. SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS APT TO CONTINUE IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THEN BECOME
ISOLATED OVERNIGHT...AGAIN THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND PERHAPS MORE SO IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT CLOSER TO
THE UPPER TROUGH AND AS CONVECTION INITIATED NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
MOVES EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND
SOME MIXING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH REACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE
PIEDMONT DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC IS POSSIBLY EVEN MORE MOIST THAN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. EXPECT A
GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY A BIT. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KTS RANGE AND SUPPORT MORE
CONVECTIVE STORM ORGANIZATION AND A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SEVERE THREAT.
POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY. MAX TEMP
GUIDANCE IS EVEN WARMER COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING S HIGHS IN THE 94-95 RANGE AT RDU AND FAY. NOT
READY TO GO THAT HIGH BUT WE HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPS A BIT AND IF
CLOUDS COVER IS LESS THAN EXPECTED...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE EAST.
HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE 88 TO 93 RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT SLOWLY CLEARS CENTRAL NC FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN STALLS
ALONG THE NC COAST AND EXTENDS BACK INTO CENTRAL SC BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS ON
FRIDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN ON THURSDAY WITH FRIDAY MAXES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 60S TO THE NORTHWEST
AND UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTHEAST. -BLAES
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER THE OH VALLEY
WEAKENS AND THE BOUNDARY THAT LINGERED ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
WASHED OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DOMINATING SURFACE
FEATURE AND THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH CHANCES FOR AFT/EVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM MONDAY...

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO SHORT TERM DETAILS AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN...
WITH SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED IN THE
MOIST AND QUITE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE LARGELY VFR WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN AND SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING...AFTER 02Z...BUT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS WE COOL
OVERNIGHT. MVFR VISIBILITY AND IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD
IN THE USUAL 08-13Z TIME FRAME...POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO THE MID MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR-VFR CEILINGS BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...WE REMAIN IN THE UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY.
SCATTERED MAINLY LATE DAY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...MLM/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...MLM




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211744
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
143 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL HOLD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A MOIST ATLANTIC FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA... AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM MONDAY...

UPDATE...UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER ALABAMA WILL SEND PERTUBATIONS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...CONCURRENT WITH WESTWARD ADVECTION OF
VERY MOIST AIR OFF THE ATLANTIC DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW. WE
WILL SEE COVERAGE INCREASE...SLOW MOVING CONVECTION ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BECOME
PROBLEMATIC FOR FLOODING IN AREAS WHERE THE STORMS MERGE OR TRAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: A DAMP AND VOLATILE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST THROUGH CENTRAL GA/SC AND ACROSS SE NC... ASSOCIATED WITH
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES AND MIDSOUTH.
THIS TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS TO A BAGGY CLOSED LOW OVER SRN AL/GA BY
TONIGHT... WITH A WEAK BUT DISTINCT SHEAR AXIS STRETCHING NE ACROSS
NC. PW VALUES ARE ALREADY ON THE HIGH SIDE (120-140% OF NORMAL) AND
ARE PROJECTED TO RISE FURTHER... SURPASSING 2 INCHES OVER NEARLY THE
ENTIRE CWA AND PERHAPS 2.25 INCHES IN THE SE CWA... AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SSE AND DRAWS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHILE
PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS PERSIST
WITHIN A WEAK STEERING REGIME. THE LATEST HIGH-RES AND CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PIEDMONT/WRN SANDHILLS WILL SEE THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON... WHICH WOULD THEN DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ERN
SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY MIDNIGHT. THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
THIS EVOLUTION BOOSTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE... AND WILL FOLLOW THIS
TREND IN THE FORECAST WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS EAST AND LIKELY WEST
EARLY... TRENDING DOWN IN THE WEST AND UP IN THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THAT THE FLOW IS SO WEAK WITH AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST COLUMN AND SUBTLE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY OUTFLOWS
AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING... SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD POP UP ANYWHERE
TODAY AND SIMPLY MEANDER. SLOW STORM MOTION AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM
LAYER (AROUND 3.5 KM) TO FOSTER WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL BRING A
RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY... ALTHOUGH NOT OVER A LARGE
ENOUGH AREA TO NECESSITATE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
RAINFALL COULD BE EXACERBATED OVER THE FAR WRN PIEDMONT WHERE LOW
LEVEL MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP THE RETREATING SHALLOW SURFACE RIDGE MAY
ENHANCE LIFT. WILL TREND POPS DOWN TO LOWER CHANCE TONIGHT... LOWER
IN THE NE AND BETTER IN THE SW WHERE MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL CUT DOWN ON HEATING
TODAY ESPECIALLY EAST AND SE... AND EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOW 80S NW
TO MID 80S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS 68-72... LARGELY FOLLOWING
PERSISTENCE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

THE BAGGY LOW OVER SRN AL IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD TUE/TUE
NIGHT TOWARD LA... NUDGING THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT TO OUR WEST...
WHICH IN TURN BUMPS THE DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WESTWARD TOWARD
THE NC FOOTHILLS. PW IS EXPECTED TO HOLD AT OR ABOVE 2.0 INCHES...
WITH A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY AFTERNOON. MODELS
GENERATE SPARSE PRECIP THROUGH MIDDAY MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
FAR WRN PIEDMONT... THEN SPREAD NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE WRN
PIEDMONT AND BACK TO THE FOOTHILLS IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DEPICT
MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTERS
PRODUCING POCKETS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE NW AND FAR WRN CWA AND LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE... AS OVERALL LIFT
IS TEMPERED BY MODEST HEIGHT RISES. SLIGHTLY GREATER SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CONVECTION COVERAGE AND SIMILAR
THICKNESSES... SO EXPECT TUE TEMPS TO TOP OUT A BIT HIGHER THAN
TODAY... 85-89. LOWS TUE NIGHT 69-73 WITH POPS LOWERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT THE USUAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AS A THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
SETS UP OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE
INCREASING WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL YIELD HIGHS AROUND 90
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. PWAT VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN
1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES...AND WITH CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND RELATIVELY
WEAK SHEAR...EXPECT THE MAIN STORM THREATS TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO TRAVERSE
THE CAROLINAS AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES AN
INITIAL FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWESTERLY...AND STALLING OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN PUSH
OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST AND LOWEST CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE REVERSE BEING THE CASE FOR FRIDAY.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WITH THE NW WINDS ON FRIDAY...
EXPECT HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER 80S...
AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER THE OH VALLEY
WEAKENS AND THE BOUNDARY THAT LINGERED ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
WASHED OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DOMINATING SURFACE
FEATURE AND THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH CHANCES FOR AFT/EVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM MONDAY...

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO SHORT TERM DETAILS AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN...
WITH SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED IN THE
MOIST AND QUITE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
CEILINGS AND VISBILITY WILL BE LARGELY VFR WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN AND SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING...AFTER 02Z...BUT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS WE COOL
OVERNIGHT. MVFR VISIBILITY AND IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD
IN THE USUAL 08-13Z TIME FRAME...POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO THE MID MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR-VFR CEILINGS BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...WE REMAIN IN THE UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY.
SCATTERED MAINLY LATE DAY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...MLM/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...MLM





000
FXUS62 KRAH 211744
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
143 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL HOLD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A MOIST ATLANTIC FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA... AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM MONDAY...

UPDATE...UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER ALABAMA WILL SEND PERTUBATIONS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...CONCURRENT WITH WESTWARD ADVECTION OF
VERY MOIST AIR OFF THE ATLANTIC DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW. WE
WILL SEE COVERAGE INCREASE...SLOW MOVING CONVECTION ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BECOME
PROBLEMATIC FOR FLOODING IN AREAS WHERE THE STORMS MERGE OR TRAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: A DAMP AND VOLATILE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST THROUGH CENTRAL GA/SC AND ACROSS SE NC... ASSOCIATED WITH
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES AND MIDSOUTH.
THIS TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS TO A BAGGY CLOSED LOW OVER SRN AL/GA BY
TONIGHT... WITH A WEAK BUT DISTINCT SHEAR AXIS STRETCHING NE ACROSS
NC. PW VALUES ARE ALREADY ON THE HIGH SIDE (120-140% OF NORMAL) AND
ARE PROJECTED TO RISE FURTHER... SURPASSING 2 INCHES OVER NEARLY THE
ENTIRE CWA AND PERHAPS 2.25 INCHES IN THE SE CWA... AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SSE AND DRAWS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHILE
PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS PERSIST
WITHIN A WEAK STEERING REGIME. THE LATEST HIGH-RES AND CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PIEDMONT/WRN SANDHILLS WILL SEE THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON... WHICH WOULD THEN DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ERN
SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY MIDNIGHT. THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
THIS EVOLUTION BOOSTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE... AND WILL FOLLOW THIS
TREND IN THE FORECAST WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS EAST AND LIKELY WEST
EARLY... TRENDING DOWN IN THE WEST AND UP IN THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THAT THE FLOW IS SO WEAK WITH AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST COLUMN AND SUBTLE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY OUTFLOWS
AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING... SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD POP UP ANYWHERE
TODAY AND SIMPLY MEANDER. SLOW STORM MOTION AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM
LAYER (AROUND 3.5 KM) TO FOSTER WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL BRING A
RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY... ALTHOUGH NOT OVER A LARGE
ENOUGH AREA TO NECESSITATE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
RAINFALL COULD BE EXACERBATED OVER THE FAR WRN PIEDMONT WHERE LOW
LEVEL MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP THE RETREATING SHALLOW SURFACE RIDGE MAY
ENHANCE LIFT. WILL TREND POPS DOWN TO LOWER CHANCE TONIGHT... LOWER
IN THE NE AND BETTER IN THE SW WHERE MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL CUT DOWN ON HEATING
TODAY ESPECIALLY EAST AND SE... AND EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOW 80S NW
TO MID 80S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS 68-72... LARGELY FOLLOWING
PERSISTENCE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

THE BAGGY LOW OVER SRN AL IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD TUE/TUE
NIGHT TOWARD LA... NUDGING THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT TO OUR WEST...
WHICH IN TURN BUMPS THE DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WESTWARD TOWARD
THE NC FOOTHILLS. PW IS EXPECTED TO HOLD AT OR ABOVE 2.0 INCHES...
WITH A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY AFTERNOON. MODELS
GENERATE SPARSE PRECIP THROUGH MIDDAY MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
FAR WRN PIEDMONT... THEN SPREAD NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE WRN
PIEDMONT AND BACK TO THE FOOTHILLS IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DEPICT
MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTERS
PRODUCING POCKETS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE NW AND FAR WRN CWA AND LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE... AS OVERALL LIFT
IS TEMPERED BY MODEST HEIGHT RISES. SLIGHTLY GREATER SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CONVECTION COVERAGE AND SIMILAR
THICKNESSES... SO EXPECT TUE TEMPS TO TOP OUT A BIT HIGHER THAN
TODAY... 85-89. LOWS TUE NIGHT 69-73 WITH POPS LOWERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT THE USUAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AS A THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
SETS UP OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE
INCREASING WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL YIELD HIGHS AROUND 90
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. PWAT VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN
1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES...AND WITH CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND RELATIVELY
WEAK SHEAR...EXPECT THE MAIN STORM THREATS TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO TRAVERSE
THE CAROLINAS AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES AN
INITIAL FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWESTERLY...AND STALLING OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN PUSH
OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST AND LOWEST CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE REVERSE BEING THE CASE FOR FRIDAY.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WITH THE NW WINDS ON FRIDAY...
EXPECT HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER 80S...
AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER THE OH VALLEY
WEAKENS AND THE BOUNDARY THAT LINGERED ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
WASHED OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DOMINATING SURFACE
FEATURE AND THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH CHANCES FOR AFT/EVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM MONDAY...

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO SHORT TERM DETAILS AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN...
WITH SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED IN THE
MOIST AND QUITE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
CEILINGS AND VISBILITY WILL BE LARGELY VFR WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN AND SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING...AFTER 02Z...BUT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS WE COOL
OVERNIGHT. MVFR VISIBILITY AND IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD
IN THE USUAL 08-13Z TIME FRAME...POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO THE MID MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR-VFR CEILINGS BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...WE REMAIN IN THE UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY.
SCATTERED MAINLY LATE DAY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...MLM/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...MLM




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211500
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1100 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL HOLD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A MOIST ATLANTIC FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA... AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM MONDAY...

UPDATE...UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER ALABAMA WILL SEND PERTUBATIONS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...CONCURRENT WITH WESTWARD ADVECTION OF
VERY MOIST AIR OFF THE ATLANTIC DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW. WE
WILL SEE COVERAGE INCREASE...SLOW MOVING CONVECTION ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BECOME
PROBLEMATIC FOR FLOODING IN AREAS WHERE THE STORMS MERGE OR TRAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: A DAMP AND VOLATILE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST THROUGH CENTRAL GA/SC AND ACROSS SE NC... ASSOCIATED WITH
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES AND MIDSOUTH.
THIS TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS TO A BAGGY CLOSED LOW OVER SRN AL/GA BY
TONIGHT... WITH A WEAK BUT DISTINCT SHEAR AXIS STRETCHING NE ACROSS
NC. PW VALUES ARE ALREADY ON THE HIGH SIDE (120-140% OF NORMAL) AND
ARE PROJECTED TO RISE FURTHER... SURPASSING 2 INCHES OVER NEARLY THE
ENTIRE CWA AND PERHAPS 2.25 INCHES IN THE SE CWA... AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SSE AND DRAWS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHILE
PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS PERSIST
WITHIN A WEAK STEERING REGIME. THE LATEST HIGH-RES AND CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PIEDMONT/WRN SANDHILLS WILL SEE THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON... WHICH WOULD THEN DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ERN
SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY MIDNIGHT. THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
THIS EVOLUTION BOOSTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE... AND WILL FOLLOW THIS
TREND IN THE FORECAST WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS EAST AND LIKELY WEST
EARLY... TRENDING DOWN IN THE WEST AND UP IN THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THAT THE FLOW IS SO WEAK WITH AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST COLUMN AND SUBTLE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY OUTFLOWS
AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING... SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD POP UP ANYWHERE
TODAY AND SIMPLY MEANDER. SLOW STORM MOTION AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM
LAYER (AROUND 3.5 KM) TO FOSTER WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL BRING A
RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY... ALTHOUGH NOT OVER A LARGE
ENOUGH AREA TO NECESSITATE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
RAINFALL COULD BE EXACERBATED OVER THE FAR WRN PIEDMONT WHERE LOW
LEVEL MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP THE RETREATING SHALLOW SURFACE RIDGE MAY
ENHANCE LIFT. WILL TREND POPS DOWN TO LOWER CHANCE TONIGHT... LOWER
IN THE NE AND BETTER IN THE SW WHERE MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL CUT DOWN ON HEATING
TODAY ESPECIALLY EAST AND SE... AND EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOW 80S NW
TO MID 80S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS 68-72... LARGELY FOLLOWING
PERSISTENCE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

THE BAGGY LOW OVER SRN AL IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD TUE/TUE
NIGHT TOWARD LA... NUDGING THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT TO OUR WEST...
WHICH IN TURN BUMPS THE DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WESTWARD TOWARD
THE NC FOOTHILLS. PW IS EXPECTED TO HOLD AT OR ABOVE 2.0 INCHES...
WITH A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY AFTERNOON. MODELS
GENERATE SPARSE PRECIP THROUGH MIDDAY MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
FAR WRN PIEDMONT... THEN SPREAD NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE WRN
PIEDMONT AND BACK TO THE FOOTHILLS IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DEPICT
MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTERS
PRODUCING POCKETS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE NW AND FAR WRN CWA AND LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE... AS OVERALL LIFT
IS TEMPERED BY MODEST HEIGHT RISES. SLIGHTLY GREATER SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CONVECTION COVERAGE AND SIMILAR
THICKNESSES... SO EXPECT TUE TEMPS TO TOP OUT A BIT HIGHER THAN
TODAY... 85-89. LOWS TUE NIGHT 69-73 WITH POPS LOWERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT THE USUAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AS A THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
SETS UP OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE
INCREASING WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL YIELD HIGHS AROUND 90
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. PWAT VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN
1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES...AND WITH CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND RELATIVELY
WEAK SHEAR...EXPECT THE MAIN STORM THREATS TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO TRAVERSE
THE CAROLINAS AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES AN
INITIAL FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWESTERLY...AND STALLING OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN PUSH
OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST AND LOWEST CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE REVERSE BEING THE CASE FOR FRIDAY.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WITH THE NW WINDS ON FRIDAY...
EXPECT HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER 80S...
AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER THE OH VALLEY
WEAKENS AND THE BOUNDARY THAT LINGERED ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
WASHED OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DOMINATING SURFACE
FEATURE AND THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH CHANCES FOR AFT/EVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM MONDAY...

SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF STORMS LINGER OVER CENTRAL
NC... MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT RDU IN THE VERY NEAR TERM. OTHERWISE...
IFR CIGS AT INT/GSO/RDU WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON... WHILE MVFR VSBY AT FAY WILL DISPERSE BY 15Z.
A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF
INTO A LOW OVER AL/GA TODAY AND TONIGHT... WHICH WILL KEEP A VERY
MOIST AND UNSETTLED ATMOSPHERE OVER NC... WITH A LIGHT FLOW FROM THE
SE AND S DRAWING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL
CENTRAL NC TAF SITES AT SOME POINT TODAY... DRIFTING TO THE N OR
NW... HOWEVER DETERMINING PRECISELY WHEN EACH SITE WILL BE AFFECTED
IS DIFFICULT... RESULTING IN LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE. ONCE THE
ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS NOW OVER CENTRAL NC MOVE ON... THE BEST
ESTIMATE ON TIMING OF LATER STORMS IS THAT THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO
AFFECT INT/GSO 14Z-18Z... RDU FROM 16Z-20Z... AND RWI/FAY 18Z-22Z.
BUT AGAIN... CONFIDENCE IN THESE TIMES ARE VERY LOW... AS STORMS
WILL TEND TO FORM ON SUBTLE ILL-DEFINED BOUNDARIES WITH A MEANDERING
MOVEMENT AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ON OUTFLOWS. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE OF IFR CIGS REDEVELOPING BY LATE EVENING OR SOON AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT... AT ALL TAF SITES...
ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR FOG. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
ALL THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z TUE MORNING... CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY LATE
TUE MORNING... WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN ONCE
AGAIN TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING AS THE MOIST UNSETTLED PATTERN HOLDS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
MAINLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING... WITH CHANCES IMPROVING EACH DAY
THROUGH FRI. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...MLM/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 211500
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1100 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL HOLD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A MOIST ATLANTIC FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA... AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM MONDAY...

UPDATE...UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER ALABAMA WILL SEND PERTUBATIONS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...CONCURRENT WITH WESTWARD ADVECTION OF
VERY MOIST AIR OFF THE ATLANTIC DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW. WE
WILL SEE COVERAGE INCREASE...SLOW MOVING CONVECTION ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BECOME
PROBLEMATIC FOR FLOODING IN AREAS WHERE THE STORMS MERGE OR TRAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: A DAMP AND VOLATILE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS THE
GULF COAST THROUGH CENTRAL GA/SC AND ACROSS SE NC... ASSOCIATED WITH
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES AND MIDSOUTH.
THIS TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS TO A BAGGY CLOSED LOW OVER SRN AL/GA BY
TONIGHT... WITH A WEAK BUT DISTINCT SHEAR AXIS STRETCHING NE ACROSS
NC. PW VALUES ARE ALREADY ON THE HIGH SIDE (120-140% OF NORMAL) AND
ARE PROJECTED TO RISE FURTHER... SURPASSING 2 INCHES OVER NEARLY THE
ENTIRE CWA AND PERHAPS 2.25 INCHES IN THE SE CWA... AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SSE AND DRAWS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHILE
PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS PERSIST
WITHIN A WEAK STEERING REGIME. THE LATEST HIGH-RES AND CONVECTION-
ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PIEDMONT/WRN SANDHILLS WILL SEE THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON... WHICH WOULD THEN DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ERN
SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY MIDNIGHT. THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
THIS EVOLUTION BOOSTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE... AND WILL FOLLOW THIS
TREND IN THE FORECAST WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS EAST AND LIKELY WEST
EARLY... TRENDING DOWN IN THE WEST AND UP IN THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THAT THE FLOW IS SO WEAK WITH AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST COLUMN AND SUBTLE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY OUTFLOWS
AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING... SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD POP UP ANYWHERE
TODAY AND SIMPLY MEANDER. SLOW STORM MOTION AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM
LAYER (AROUND 3.5 KM) TO FOSTER WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL BRING A
RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY... ALTHOUGH NOT OVER A LARGE
ENOUGH AREA TO NECESSITATE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.
RAINFALL COULD BE EXACERBATED OVER THE FAR WRN PIEDMONT WHERE LOW
LEVEL MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP THE RETREATING SHALLOW SURFACE RIDGE MAY
ENHANCE LIFT. WILL TREND POPS DOWN TO LOWER CHANCE TONIGHT... LOWER
IN THE NE AND BETTER IN THE SW WHERE MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL CUT DOWN ON HEATING
TODAY ESPECIALLY EAST AND SE... AND EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOW 80S NW
TO MID 80S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS 68-72... LARGELY FOLLOWING
PERSISTENCE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

THE BAGGY LOW OVER SRN AL IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD TUE/TUE
NIGHT TOWARD LA... NUDGING THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT TO OUR WEST...
WHICH IN TURN BUMPS THE DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WESTWARD TOWARD
THE NC FOOTHILLS. PW IS EXPECTED TO HOLD AT OR ABOVE 2.0 INCHES...
WITH A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY AFTERNOON. MODELS
GENERATE SPARSE PRECIP THROUGH MIDDAY MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
FAR WRN PIEDMONT... THEN SPREAD NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE WRN
PIEDMONT AND BACK TO THE FOOTHILLS IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DEPICT
MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTERS
PRODUCING POCKETS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE NW AND FAR WRN CWA AND LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE... AS OVERALL LIFT
IS TEMPERED BY MODEST HEIGHT RISES. SLIGHTLY GREATER SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CONVECTION COVERAGE AND SIMILAR
THICKNESSES... SO EXPECT TUE TEMPS TO TOP OUT A BIT HIGHER THAN
TODAY... 85-89. LOWS TUE NIGHT 69-73 WITH POPS LOWERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT THE USUAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AS A THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
SETS UP OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE
INCREASING WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL YIELD HIGHS AROUND 90
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. PWAT VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN
1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES...AND WITH CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND RELATIVELY
WEAK SHEAR...EXPECT THE MAIN STORM THREATS TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO TRAVERSE
THE CAROLINAS AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES AN
INITIAL FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWESTERLY...AND STALLING OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN PUSH
OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST AND LOWEST CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE REVERSE BEING THE CASE FOR FRIDAY.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WITH THE NW WINDS ON FRIDAY...
EXPECT HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER 80S...
AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER THE OH VALLEY
WEAKENS AND THE BOUNDARY THAT LINGERED ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
WASHED OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DOMINATING SURFACE
FEATURE AND THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH CHANCES FOR AFT/EVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM MONDAY...

SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF STORMS LINGER OVER CENTRAL
NC... MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT RDU IN THE VERY NEAR TERM. OTHERWISE...
IFR CIGS AT INT/GSO/RDU WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON... WHILE MVFR VSBY AT FAY WILL DISPERSE BY 15Z.
A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF
INTO A LOW OVER AL/GA TODAY AND TONIGHT... WHICH WILL KEEP A VERY
MOIST AND UNSETTLED ATMOSPHERE OVER NC... WITH A LIGHT FLOW FROM THE
SE AND S DRAWING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL
CENTRAL NC TAF SITES AT SOME POINT TODAY... DRIFTING TO THE N OR
NW... HOWEVER DETERMINING PRECISELY WHEN EACH SITE WILL BE AFFECTED
IS DIFFICULT... RESULTING IN LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE. ONCE THE
ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS NOW OVER CENTRAL NC MOVE ON... THE BEST
ESTIMATE ON TIMING OF LATER STORMS IS THAT THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO
AFFECT INT/GSO 14Z-18Z... RDU FROM 16Z-20Z... AND RWI/FAY 18Z-22Z.
BUT AGAIN... CONFIDENCE IN THESE TIMES ARE VERY LOW... AS STORMS
WILL TEND TO FORM ON SUBTLE ILL-DEFINED BOUNDARIES WITH A MEANDERING
MOVEMENT AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ON OUTFLOWS. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE OF IFR CIGS REDEVELOPING BY LATE EVENING OR SOON AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT... AT ALL TAF SITES...
ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR FOG. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
ALL THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z TUE MORNING... CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY LATE
TUE MORNING... WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN ONCE
AGAIN TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING AS THE MOIST UNSETTLED PATTERN HOLDS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
MAINLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING... WITH CHANCES IMPROVING EACH DAY
THROUGH FRI. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...MLM/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211126
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
725 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL HOLD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A MOIST ATLANTIC FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA... AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM MONDAY...

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: A DAMP AND VOLATILE ATMOSPHERE WILL HOLD OVER
CENTRAL NC AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH
CENTRAL GA/SC AND ACROSS SE NC... ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES AND MIDSOUTH. THIS TROUGH ALOFT
DEEPENS TO A BAGGY CLOSED LOW OVER SRN AL/GA BY TONIGHT... WITH A
WEAK BUT DISTINCT SHEAR AXIS STRETCHING NE ACROSS NC. PW VALUES ARE
ALREADY ON THE HIGH SIDE (120-140% OF NORMAL) AND ARE PROJECTED TO
RISE FURTHER... SURPASSING 2 INCHES OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA AND
PERHAPS 2.25 INCHES IN THE SE CWA... AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM
THE SSE AND DRAWS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHILE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS PERSIST WITHIN A WEAK STEERING
REGIME. THE LATEST HIGH-RES AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE PIEDMONT/WRN SANDHILLS WILL SEE THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... WHICH WOULD
THEN DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ERN SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY
MIDNIGHT. THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION BOOSTS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE... AND WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND IN THE FORECAST WITH GOOD
CHANCE POPS EAST AND LIKELY WEST EARLY... TRENDING DOWN IN THE WEST
AND UP IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THAT THE FLOW IS SO
WEAK WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST COLUMN AND SUBTLE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY OUTFLOWS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING... SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD POP UP ANYWHERE TODAY AND SIMPLY MEANDER. SLOW
STORM MOTION AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER (AROUND 3.5 KM) TO FOSTER
WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL BRING A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TODAY... ALTHOUGH NOT OVER A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO NECESSITATE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. RAINFALL COULD BE EXACERBATED OVER
THE FAR WRN PIEDMONT WHERE LOW LEVEL MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP THE
RETREATING SHALLOW SURFACE RIDGE MAY ENHANCE LIFT. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN TO LOWER CHANCE TONIGHT... LOWER IN THE NE AND BETTER IN THE SW
WHERE MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS WILL CUT DOWN ON HEATING TODAY ESPECIALLY EAST AND SE...
AND EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOW 80S NW TO MID 80S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. LOWS 68-72... LARGELY FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

THE BAGGY LOW OVER SRN AL IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD TUE/TUE
NIGHT TOWARD LA... NUDGING THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT TO OUR WEST...
WHICH IN TURN BUMPS THE DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WESTWARD TOWARD
THE NC FOOTHILLS. PW IS EXPECTED TO HOLD AT OR ABOVE 2.0 INCHES...
WITH A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY AFTERNOON. MODELS
GENERATE SPARSE PRECIP THROUGH MIDDAY MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
FAR WRN PIEDMONT... THEN SPREAD NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE WRN
PIEDMONT AND BACK TO THE FOOTHILLS IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DEPICT
MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTERS
PRODUCING POCKETS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE NW AND FAR WRN CWA AND LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE... AS OVERALL LIFT
IS TEMPERED BY MODEST HEIGHT RISES. SLIGHTLY GREATER SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CONVECTION COVERAGE AND SIMILAR
THICKNESSES... SO EXPECT TUE TEMPS TO TOP OUT A BIT HIGHER THAN
TODAY... 85-89. LOWS TUE NIGHT 69-73 WITH POPS LOWERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT THE USUAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AS A THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
SETS UP OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE
INCREASING WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL YIELD HIGHS AROUND 90
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. PWAT VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN
1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES...AND WITH CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND RELATIVELY
WEAK SHEAR...EXPECT THE MAIN STORM THREATS TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO TRAVERSE
THE CAROLINAS AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES AN
INITIAL FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWESTERLY...AND STALLING OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN PUSH
OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST AND LOWEST CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE REVERSE BEING THE CASE FOR FRIDAY.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WITH THE NW WINDS ON FRIDAY...
EXPECT HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER 80S...
AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER THE OH VALLEY
WEAKENS AND THE BOUNDARY THAT LINGERED ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
WASHED OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DOMINATING SURFACE
FEATURE AND THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH CHANCES FOR AFT/EVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM MONDAY...

SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF STORMS LINGER OVER CENTRAL
NC... MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT RDU IN THE VERY NEAR TERM. OTHERWISE...
IFR CIGS AT INT/GSO/RDU WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON... WHILE MVFR VSBY AT FAY WILL DISPERSE BY 15Z.
A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF
INTO A LOW OVER AL/GA TODAY AND TONIGHT... WHICH WILL KEEP A VERY
MOIST AND UNSETTLED ATMOSPHERE OVER NC... WITH A LIGHT FLOW FROM THE
SE AND S DRAWING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL
CENTRAL NC TAF SITES AT SOME POINT TODAY... DRIFTING TO THE N OR
NW... HOWEVER DETERMINING PRECISELY WHEN EACH SITE WILL BE AFFECTED
IS DIFFICULT... RESULTING IN LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE. ONCE THE
ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS NOW OVER CENTRAL NC MOVE ON... THE BEST
ESTIMATE ON TIMING OF LATER STORMS IS THAT THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO
AFFECT INT/GSO 14Z-18Z... RDU FROM 16Z-20Z... AND RWI/FAY 18Z-22Z.
BUT AGAIN... CONFIDENCE IN THESE TIMES ARE VERY LOW... AS STORMS
WILL TEND TO FORM ON SUBTLE ILL-DEFINED BOUNDARIES WITH A MEANDERING
MOVEMENT AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ON OUTFLOWS. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE OF IFR CIGS REDEVELOPING BY LATE EVENING OR SOON AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT... AT ALL TAF SITES...
ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR FOG. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
ALL THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z TUE MORNING... CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY LATE
TUE MORNING... WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN ONCE
AGAIN TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING AS THE MOIST UNSETTLED PATTERN HOLDS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
MAINLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING... WITH CHANCES IMPROVING EACH DAY
THROUGH FRI. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211126
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
725 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL HOLD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A MOIST ATLANTIC FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA... AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM MONDAY...

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: A DAMP AND VOLATILE ATMOSPHERE WILL HOLD OVER
CENTRAL NC AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH
CENTRAL GA/SC AND ACROSS SE NC... ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES AND MIDSOUTH. THIS TROUGH ALOFT
DEEPENS TO A BAGGY CLOSED LOW OVER SRN AL/GA BY TONIGHT... WITH A
WEAK BUT DISTINCT SHEAR AXIS STRETCHING NE ACROSS NC. PW VALUES ARE
ALREADY ON THE HIGH SIDE (120-140% OF NORMAL) AND ARE PROJECTED TO
RISE FURTHER... SURPASSING 2 INCHES OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA AND
PERHAPS 2.25 INCHES IN THE SE CWA... AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM
THE SSE AND DRAWS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHILE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS PERSIST WITHIN A WEAK STEERING
REGIME. THE LATEST HIGH-RES AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE PIEDMONT/WRN SANDHILLS WILL SEE THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... WHICH WOULD
THEN DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ERN SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY
MIDNIGHT. THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION BOOSTS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE... AND WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND IN THE FORECAST WITH GOOD
CHANCE POPS EAST AND LIKELY WEST EARLY... TRENDING DOWN IN THE WEST
AND UP IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THAT THE FLOW IS SO
WEAK WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST COLUMN AND SUBTLE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY OUTFLOWS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING... SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD POP UP ANYWHERE TODAY AND SIMPLY MEANDER. SLOW
STORM MOTION AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER (AROUND 3.5 KM) TO FOSTER
WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL BRING A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TODAY... ALTHOUGH NOT OVER A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO NECESSITATE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. RAINFALL COULD BE EXACERBATED OVER
THE FAR WRN PIEDMONT WHERE LOW LEVEL MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP THE
RETREATING SHALLOW SURFACE RIDGE MAY ENHANCE LIFT. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN TO LOWER CHANCE TONIGHT... LOWER IN THE NE AND BETTER IN THE SW
WHERE MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS WILL CUT DOWN ON HEATING TODAY ESPECIALLY EAST AND SE...
AND EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOW 80S NW TO MID 80S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. LOWS 68-72... LARGELY FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

THE BAGGY LOW OVER SRN AL IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD TUE/TUE
NIGHT TOWARD LA... NUDGING THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT TO OUR WEST...
WHICH IN TURN BUMPS THE DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WESTWARD TOWARD
THE NC FOOTHILLS. PW IS EXPECTED TO HOLD AT OR ABOVE 2.0 INCHES...
WITH A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY AFTERNOON. MODELS
GENERATE SPARSE PRECIP THROUGH MIDDAY MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
FAR WRN PIEDMONT... THEN SPREAD NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE WRN
PIEDMONT AND BACK TO THE FOOTHILLS IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DEPICT
MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTERS
PRODUCING POCKETS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE NW AND FAR WRN CWA AND LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE... AS OVERALL LIFT
IS TEMPERED BY MODEST HEIGHT RISES. SLIGHTLY GREATER SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CONVECTION COVERAGE AND SIMILAR
THICKNESSES... SO EXPECT TUE TEMPS TO TOP OUT A BIT HIGHER THAN
TODAY... 85-89. LOWS TUE NIGHT 69-73 WITH POPS LOWERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT THE USUAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AS A THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
SETS UP OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE
INCREASING WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL YIELD HIGHS AROUND 90
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. PWAT VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN
1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES...AND WITH CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND RELATIVELY
WEAK SHEAR...EXPECT THE MAIN STORM THREATS TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO TRAVERSE
THE CAROLINAS AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES AN
INITIAL FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWESTERLY...AND STALLING OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN PUSH
OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST AND LOWEST CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE REVERSE BEING THE CASE FOR FRIDAY.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WITH THE NW WINDS ON FRIDAY...
EXPECT HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER 80S...
AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER THE OH VALLEY
WEAKENS AND THE BOUNDARY THAT LINGERED ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
WASHED OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DOMINATING SURFACE
FEATURE AND THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH CHANCES FOR AFT/EVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM MONDAY...

SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF STORMS LINGER OVER CENTRAL
NC... MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT RDU IN THE VERY NEAR TERM. OTHERWISE...
IFR CIGS AT INT/GSO/RDU WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON... WHILE MVFR VSBY AT FAY WILL DISPERSE BY 15Z.
A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF
INTO A LOW OVER AL/GA TODAY AND TONIGHT... WHICH WILL KEEP A VERY
MOIST AND UNSETTLED ATMOSPHERE OVER NC... WITH A LIGHT FLOW FROM THE
SE AND S DRAWING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL
CENTRAL NC TAF SITES AT SOME POINT TODAY... DRIFTING TO THE N OR
NW... HOWEVER DETERMINING PRECISELY WHEN EACH SITE WILL BE AFFECTED
IS DIFFICULT... RESULTING IN LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE. ONCE THE
ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS NOW OVER CENTRAL NC MOVE ON... THE BEST
ESTIMATE ON TIMING OF LATER STORMS IS THAT THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO
AFFECT INT/GSO 14Z-18Z... RDU FROM 16Z-20Z... AND RWI/FAY 18Z-22Z.
BUT AGAIN... CONFIDENCE IN THESE TIMES ARE VERY LOW... AS STORMS
WILL TEND TO FORM ON SUBTLE ILL-DEFINED BOUNDARIES WITH A MEANDERING
MOVEMENT AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ON OUTFLOWS. THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE OF IFR CIGS REDEVELOPING BY LATE EVENING OR SOON AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT... AT ALL TAF SITES...
ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR FOG. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
ALL THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z TUE MORNING... CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY LATE
TUE MORNING... WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN ONCE
AGAIN TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING AS THE MOIST UNSETTLED PATTERN HOLDS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
MAINLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING... WITH CHANCES IMPROVING EACH DAY
THROUGH FRI. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 210706
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL HOLD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A MOIST ATLANTIC FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA... AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM MONDAY...

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: A DAMP AND VOLATILE ATMOSPHERE WILL HOLD OVER
CENTRAL NC AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH
CENTRAL GA/SC AND ACROSS SE NC... ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES AND MIDSOUTH. THIS TROUGH ALOFT
DEEPENS TO A BAGGY CLOSED LOW OVER SRN AL/GA BY TONIGHT... WITH A
WEAK BUT DISTINCT SHEAR AXIS STRETCHING NE ACROSS NC. PW VALUES ARE
ALREADY ON THE HIGH SIDE (120-140% OF NORMAL) AND ARE PROJECTED TO
RISE FURTHER... SURPASSING 2 INCHES OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA AND
PERHAPS 2.25 INCHES IN THE SE CWA... AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM
THE SSE AND DRAWS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHILE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS PERSIST WITHIN A WEAK STEERING
REGIME. THE LATEST HIGH-RES AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE PIEDMONT/WRN SANDHILLS WILL SEE THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... WHICH WOULD
THEN DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ERN SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY
MIDNIGHT. THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION BOOSTS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE... AND WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND IN THE FORECAST WITH GOOD
CHANCE POPS EAST AND LIKELY WEST EARLY... TRENDING DOWN IN THE WEST
AND UP IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THAT THE FLOW IS SO
WEAK WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST COLUMN AND SUBTLE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY OUTFLOWS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING... SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD POP UP ANYWHERE TODAY AND SIMPLY MEANDER. SLOW
STORM MOTION AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER (AROUND 3.5 KM) TO FOSTER
WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL BRING A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TODAY... ALTHOUGH NOT OVER A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO NECESSITATE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. RAINFALL COULD BE EXACERBATED OVER
THE FAR WRN PIEDMONT WHERE LOW LEVEL MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP THE
RETREATING SHALLOW SURFACE RIDGE MAY ENHANCE LIFT. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN TO LOWER CHANCE TONIGHT... LOWER IN THE NE AND BETTER IN THE SW
WHERE MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS WILL CUT DOWN ON HEATING TODAY ESPECIALLY EAST AND SE...
AND EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOW 80S NW TO MID 80S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. LOWS 68-72... LARGELY FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

THE BAGGY LOW OVER SRN AL IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD TUE/TUE
NIGHT TOWARD LA... NUDGING THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT TO OUR WEST...
WHICH IN TURN BUMPS THE DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WESTWARD TOWARD
THE NC FOOTHILLS. PW IS EXPECTED TO HOLD AT OR ABOVE 2.0 INCHES...
WITH A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY AFTERNOON. MODELS
GENERATE SPARSE PRECIP THROUGH MIDDAY MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
FAR WRN PIEDMONT... THEN SPREAD NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE WRN
PIEDMONT AND BACK TO THE FOOTHILLS IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DEPICT
MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTERS
PRODUCING POCKETS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE NW AND FAR WRN CWA AND LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE... AS OVERALL LIFT
IS TEMPERED BY MODEST HEIGHT RISES. SLIGHTLY GREATER SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CONVECTION COVERAGE AND SIMILAR
THICKNESSES... SO EXPECT TUE TEMPS TO TOP OUT A BIT HIGHER THAN
TODAY... 85-89. LOWS TUE NIGHT 69-73 WITH POPS LOWERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT THE USUAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AS A THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
SETS UP OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE
INCREASING WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL YIELD HIGHS AROUND 90
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. PWAT VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN
1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES...AND WITH CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND RELATIVELY
WEAK SHEAR...EXPECT THE MAIN STORM THREATS TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO TRAVERSE
THE CAROLINAS AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES AN
INITIAL FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWESTERLY...AND STALLING OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN PUSH
OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST AND LOWEST CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE REVERSE BEING THE CASE FOR FRIDAY.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WITH THE NW WINDS ON FRIDAY...
EXPECT HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER 80S...
AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER THE OH VALLEY
WEAKENS AND THE BOUNDARY THAT LINGERED ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
WASHED OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DOMINATING SURFACE
FEATURE AND THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH CHANCES FOR AFT/EVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...

SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL
NC FOR MUCH OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD... BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHICH AIRFIELDS WILL BE MOST AFFECTED... AS SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
FORM ANYWHERE AND MEANDER/MOVE SLOWLY AROUND THE AREA. BUT IT
APPEARS THAT INT/GSO WILL SEE THE BEST COVERAGE THROUGH TODAY. A
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO
A LOW OVER AL/GA TODAY AND TONIGHT... WHICH WILL KEEP A VERY MOIST
AND UNSETTLED ATMOSPHERE OVER NC... WITH A LIGHT FLOW FROM THE SE
AND S DRAWING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. GSO/INT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
RDU HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE... EVEN AWAY FROM
SHOWERS/STORMS... INT/GSO/RDU HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS 08Z-13Z... AS THEY`VE SEEN THE MOST PRECIP IN THE LAST 24
HRS RESULTING IN A WET GROUND... SUSCEPTIBLE TO FOG/STRATUS GIVEN
THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. RWI/FAY ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A SHORTER
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN THE 08Z-13Z TIME FRAME. THESE CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY AFTER DAYBREAK BUT STAY MVFR UNTIL
AROUND NOON... WHEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN WITH CIGS BASED AT
10 000 TO 15 000 FT AGL... ALTHOUGH LINGERING MVFR CIGS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE N OR NW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
AND IT APPEARS ALL CENTRAL NC AIRFIELDS HAVE AN EQUAL CHANCE OF
SEEING SUCH STORMS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z TONIGHT... GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CIGS REDEVELOPING
BY LATE EVENING OR SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT... AT ALL TAF SITES... ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR FOG. THESE
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY LATE TUE MORNING. PATCHY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL REMAIN A GOOD BET THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH A LOW LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE EAST OR SE. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN ONCE
AGAIN TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING AS THE MOIST UNSETTLED PATTERN HOLDS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
MAINLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING... WITH CHANCES IMPROVING
EACH DAY THROUGH FRI. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 210706
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL HOLD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A MOIST ATLANTIC FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA... AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM MONDAY...

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: A DAMP AND VOLATILE ATMOSPHERE WILL HOLD OVER
CENTRAL NC AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH
CENTRAL GA/SC AND ACROSS SE NC... ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES AND MIDSOUTH. THIS TROUGH ALOFT
DEEPENS TO A BAGGY CLOSED LOW OVER SRN AL/GA BY TONIGHT... WITH A
WEAK BUT DISTINCT SHEAR AXIS STRETCHING NE ACROSS NC. PW VALUES ARE
ALREADY ON THE HIGH SIDE (120-140% OF NORMAL) AND ARE PROJECTED TO
RISE FURTHER... SURPASSING 2 INCHES OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA AND
PERHAPS 2.25 INCHES IN THE SE CWA... AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM
THE SSE AND DRAWS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHILE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS PERSIST WITHIN A WEAK STEERING
REGIME. THE LATEST HIGH-RES AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE PIEDMONT/WRN SANDHILLS WILL SEE THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... WHICH WOULD
THEN DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ERN SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY
MIDNIGHT. THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION BOOSTS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE... AND WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND IN THE FORECAST WITH GOOD
CHANCE POPS EAST AND LIKELY WEST EARLY... TRENDING DOWN IN THE WEST
AND UP IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THAT THE FLOW IS SO
WEAK WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST COLUMN AND SUBTLE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY OUTFLOWS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING... SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD POP UP ANYWHERE TODAY AND SIMPLY MEANDER. SLOW
STORM MOTION AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER (AROUND 3.5 KM) TO FOSTER
WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL BRING A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TODAY... ALTHOUGH NOT OVER A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO NECESSITATE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. RAINFALL COULD BE EXACERBATED OVER
THE FAR WRN PIEDMONT WHERE LOW LEVEL MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP THE
RETREATING SHALLOW SURFACE RIDGE MAY ENHANCE LIFT. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN TO LOWER CHANCE TONIGHT... LOWER IN THE NE AND BETTER IN THE SW
WHERE MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS WILL CUT DOWN ON HEATING TODAY ESPECIALLY EAST AND SE...
AND EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOW 80S NW TO MID 80S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. LOWS 68-72... LARGELY FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

THE BAGGY LOW OVER SRN AL IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD TUE/TUE
NIGHT TOWARD LA... NUDGING THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT TO OUR WEST...
WHICH IN TURN BUMPS THE DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WESTWARD TOWARD
THE NC FOOTHILLS. PW IS EXPECTED TO HOLD AT OR ABOVE 2.0 INCHES...
WITH A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY AFTERNOON. MODELS
GENERATE SPARSE PRECIP THROUGH MIDDAY MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
FAR WRN PIEDMONT... THEN SPREAD NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE WRN
PIEDMONT AND BACK TO THE FOOTHILLS IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DEPICT
MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTERS
PRODUCING POCKETS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE NW AND FAR WRN CWA AND LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE... AS OVERALL LIFT
IS TEMPERED BY MODEST HEIGHT RISES. SLIGHTLY GREATER SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CONVECTION COVERAGE AND SIMILAR
THICKNESSES... SO EXPECT TUE TEMPS TO TOP OUT A BIT HIGHER THAN
TODAY... 85-89. LOWS TUE NIGHT 69-73 WITH POPS LOWERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT THE USUAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AS A THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
SETS UP OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE
INCREASING WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL YIELD HIGHS AROUND 90
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. PWAT VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN
1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES...AND WITH CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND RELATIVELY
WEAK SHEAR...EXPECT THE MAIN STORM THREATS TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO TRAVERSE
THE CAROLINAS AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES AN
INITIAL FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWESTERLY...AND STALLING OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN PUSH
OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST AND LOWEST CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE REVERSE BEING THE CASE FOR FRIDAY.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WITH THE NW WINDS ON FRIDAY...
EXPECT HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER 80S...
AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER THE OH VALLEY
WEAKENS AND THE BOUNDARY THAT LINGERED ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
WASHED OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DOMINATING SURFACE
FEATURE AND THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH CHANCES FOR AFT/EVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...

SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL
NC FOR MUCH OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD... BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHICH AIRFIELDS WILL BE MOST AFFECTED... AS SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
FORM ANYWHERE AND MEANDER/MOVE SLOWLY AROUND THE AREA. BUT IT
APPEARS THAT INT/GSO WILL SEE THE BEST COVERAGE THROUGH TODAY. A
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO
A LOW OVER AL/GA TODAY AND TONIGHT... WHICH WILL KEEP A VERY MOIST
AND UNSETTLED ATMOSPHERE OVER NC... WITH A LIGHT FLOW FROM THE SE
AND S DRAWING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. GSO/INT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
RDU HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE... EVEN AWAY FROM
SHOWERS/STORMS... INT/GSO/RDU HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS 08Z-13Z... AS THEY`VE SEEN THE MOST PRECIP IN THE LAST 24
HRS RESULTING IN A WET GROUND... SUSCEPTIBLE TO FOG/STRATUS GIVEN
THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. RWI/FAY ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A SHORTER
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN THE 08Z-13Z TIME FRAME. THESE CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY AFTER DAYBREAK BUT STAY MVFR UNTIL
AROUND NOON... WHEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN WITH CIGS BASED AT
10 000 TO 15 000 FT AGL... ALTHOUGH LINGERING MVFR CIGS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE N OR NW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
AND IT APPEARS ALL CENTRAL NC AIRFIELDS HAVE AN EQUAL CHANCE OF
SEEING SUCH STORMS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z TONIGHT... GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CIGS REDEVELOPING
BY LATE EVENING OR SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT... AT ALL TAF SITES... ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR FOG. THESE
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY LATE TUE MORNING. PATCHY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL REMAIN A GOOD BET THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH A LOW LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE EAST OR SE. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN ONCE
AGAIN TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING AS THE MOIST UNSETTLED PATTERN HOLDS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
MAINLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING... WITH CHANCES IMPROVING
EACH DAY THROUGH FRI. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 210706 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL HOLD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A MOIST ATLANTIC FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA... AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM MONDAY...

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: A DAMP AND VOLATILE ATMOSPHERE WILL HOLD OVER
CENTRAL NC AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH
CENTRAL GA/SC AND ACROSS SE NC... ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES AND MIDSOUTH. THIS TROUGH ALOFT
DEEPENS TO A BAGGY CLOSED LOW OVER SRN AL/GA BY TONIGHT... WITH A
WEAK BUT DISTINCT SHEAR AXIS STRETCHING NE ACROSS NC. PW VALUES ARE
ALREADY ON THE HIGH SIDE (120-140% OF NORMAL) AND ARE PROJECTED TO
RISE FURTHER... SURPASSING 2 INCHES OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA AND
PERHAPS 2.25 INCHES IN THE SE CWA... AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM
THE SSE AND DRAWS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHILE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS PERSIST WITHIN A WEAK STEERING
REGIME. THE LATEST HIGH-RES AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE PIEDMONT/WRN SANDHILLS WILL SEE THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... WHICH WOULD
THEN DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ERN SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY
MIDNIGHT. THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION BOOSTS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE... AND WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND IN THE FORECAST WITH GOOD
CHANCE POPS EAST AND LIKELY WEST EARLY... TRENDING DOWN IN THE WEST
AND UP IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THAT THE FLOW IS SO
WEAK WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST COLUMN AND SUBTLE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY OUTFLOWS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING... SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD POP UP ANYWHERE TODAY AND SIMPLY MEANDER. SLOW
STORM MOTION AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER (AROUND 3.5 KM) TO FOSTER
WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL BRING A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TODAY... ALTHOUGH NOT OVER A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO NECESSITATE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. RAINFALL COULD BE EXACERBATED OVER
THE FAR WRN PIEDMONT WHERE LOW LEVEL MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP THE
RETREATING SHALLOW SURFACE RIDGE MAY ENHANCE LIFT. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN TO LOWER CHANCE TONIGHT... LOWER IN THE NE AND BETTER IN THE SW
WHERE MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS WILL CUT DOWN ON HEATING TODAY ESPECIALLY EAST AND SE...
AND EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOW 80S NW TO MID 80S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. LOWS 68-72... LARGELY FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

THE BAGGY LOW OVER SRN AL IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD TUE/TUE
NIGHT TOWARD LA... NUDGING THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT TO OUR WEST...
WHICH IN TURN BUMPS THE DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WESTWARD TOWARD
THE NC FOOTHILLS. PW IS EXPECTED TO HOLD AT OR ABOVE 2.0 INCHES...
WITH A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY AFTERNOON. MODELS
GENERATE SPARSE PRECIP THROUGH MIDDAY MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
FAR WRN PIEDMONT... THEN SPREAD NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE WRN
PIEDMONT AND BACK TO THE FOOTHILLS IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DEPICT
MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTERS
PRODUCING POCKETS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE NW AND FAR WRN CWA AND LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE... AS OVERALL LIFT
IS TEMPERED BY MODEST HEIGHT RISES. SLIGHTLY GREATER SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CONVECTION COVERAGE AND SIMILAR
THICKNESSES... SO EXPECT TUE TEMPS TO TOP OUT A BIT HIGHER THAN
TODAY... 85-89. LOWS TUE NIGHT 69-73 WITH POPS LOWERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT THE USUAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AS A THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
SETS UP OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE
INCREASING WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL YIELD HIGHS AROUND 90
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. PWAT VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN
1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES...AND WITH CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND RELATIVELY
WEAK SHEAR...EXPECT THE MAIN STORM THREATS TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO TRAVERSE
THE CAROLINAS AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES AN
INITIAL FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWESTERLY...AND STALLING OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN PUSH
OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST AND LOWEST CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE REVERSE BEING THE CASE FOR FRIDAY.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WITH THE NW WINDS ON FRIDAY...
EXPECT HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER 80S...
AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER THE OH VALLEY
WEAKENS AND THE BOUNDARY THAT LINGERED ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
WASHED OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DOMINATING SURFACE
FEATURE AND THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH CHANCES FOR AFT/EVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...

SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL
NC FOR MUCH OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD... BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHICH AIRFIELDS WILL BE MOST AFFECTED... AS SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
FORM ANYWHERE AND MEANDER/MOVE SLOWLY AROUND THE AREA. BUT IT
APPEARS THAT INT/GSO WILL SEE THE BEST COVERAGE THROUGH TODAY. A
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO
A LOW OVER AL/GA TODAY AND TONIGHT... WHICH WILL KEEP A VERY MOIST
AND UNSETTLED ATMOSPHERE OVER NC... WITH A LIGHT FLOW FROM THE SE
AND S DRAWING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. GSO/INT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
RDU HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE... EVEN AWAY FROM
SHOWERS/STORMS... INT/GSO/RDU HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS 08Z-13Z... AS THEY`VE SEEN THE MOST PRECIP IN THE LAST 24
HRS RESULTING IN A WET GROUND... SUSCEPTIBLE TO FOG/STRATUS GIVEN
THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. RWI/FAY ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A SHORTER
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN THE 08Z-13Z TIME FRAME. THESE CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY AFTER DAYBREAK BUT STAY MVFR UNTIL
AROUND NOON... WHEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN WITH CIGS BASED AT
10 000 TO 15 000 FT AGL... ALTHOUGH LINGERING MVFR CIGS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE N OR NW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
AND IT APPEARS ALL CENTRAL NC AIRFIELDS HAVE AN EQUAL CHANCE OF
SEEING SUCH STORMS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z TONIGHT... GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CIGS REDEVELOPING
BY LATE EVENING OR SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT... AT ALL TAF SITES... ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR FOG. THESE
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY LATE TUE MORNING. PATCHY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL REMAIN A GOOD BET THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH A LOW LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE EAST OR SE. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN ONCE
AGAIN TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING AS THE MOIST UNSETTLED PATTERN HOLDS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
MAINLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING... WITH CHANCES IMPROVING
EACH DAY THROUGH FRI. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 210706 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL HOLD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A MOIST ATLANTIC FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA... AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM MONDAY...

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: A DAMP AND VOLATILE ATMOSPHERE WILL HOLD OVER
CENTRAL NC AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH
CENTRAL GA/SC AND ACROSS SE NC... ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES AND MIDSOUTH. THIS TROUGH ALOFT
DEEPENS TO A BAGGY CLOSED LOW OVER SRN AL/GA BY TONIGHT... WITH A
WEAK BUT DISTINCT SHEAR AXIS STRETCHING NE ACROSS NC. PW VALUES ARE
ALREADY ON THE HIGH SIDE (120-140% OF NORMAL) AND ARE PROJECTED TO
RISE FURTHER... SURPASSING 2 INCHES OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA AND
PERHAPS 2.25 INCHES IN THE SE CWA... AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM
THE SSE AND DRAWS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHILE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS PERSIST WITHIN A WEAK STEERING
REGIME. THE LATEST HIGH-RES AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE PIEDMONT/WRN SANDHILLS WILL SEE THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... WHICH WOULD
THEN DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ERN SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY
MIDNIGHT. THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION BOOSTS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE... AND WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND IN THE FORECAST WITH GOOD
CHANCE POPS EAST AND LIKELY WEST EARLY... TRENDING DOWN IN THE WEST
AND UP IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THAT THE FLOW IS SO
WEAK WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST COLUMN AND SUBTLE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY OUTFLOWS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING... SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD POP UP ANYWHERE TODAY AND SIMPLY MEANDER. SLOW
STORM MOTION AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER (AROUND 3.5 KM) TO FOSTER
WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL BRING A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TODAY... ALTHOUGH NOT OVER A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO NECESSITATE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. RAINFALL COULD BE EXACERBATED OVER
THE FAR WRN PIEDMONT WHERE LOW LEVEL MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP THE
RETREATING SHALLOW SURFACE RIDGE MAY ENHANCE LIFT. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN TO LOWER CHANCE TONIGHT... LOWER IN THE NE AND BETTER IN THE SW
WHERE MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS WILL CUT DOWN ON HEATING TODAY ESPECIALLY EAST AND SE...
AND EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOW 80S NW TO MID 80S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. LOWS 68-72... LARGELY FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

THE BAGGY LOW OVER SRN AL IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD TUE/TUE
NIGHT TOWARD LA... NUDGING THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT TO OUR WEST...
WHICH IN TURN BUMPS THE DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WESTWARD TOWARD
THE NC FOOTHILLS. PW IS EXPECTED TO HOLD AT OR ABOVE 2.0 INCHES...
WITH A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT BY AFTERNOON. MODELS
GENERATE SPARSE PRECIP THROUGH MIDDAY MAINLY IN THE FAR SOUTH AND
FAR WRN PIEDMONT... THEN SPREAD NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE WRN
PIEDMONT AND BACK TO THE FOOTHILLS IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS DEPICT
MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY NON-SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTERS
PRODUCING POCKETS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE NW AND FAR WRN CWA AND LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE... AS OVERALL LIFT
IS TEMPERED BY MODEST HEIGHT RISES. SLIGHTLY GREATER SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CONVECTION COVERAGE AND SIMILAR
THICKNESSES... SO EXPECT TUE TEMPS TO TOP OUT A BIT HIGHER THAN
TODAY... 85-89. LOWS TUE NIGHT 69-73 WITH POPS LOWERING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT THE USUAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AS A THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
SETS UP OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE
INCREASING WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL YIELD HIGHS AROUND 90
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. PWAT VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN
1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES...AND WITH CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND RELATIVELY
WEAK SHEAR...EXPECT THE MAIN STORM THREATS TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO TRAVERSE
THE CAROLINAS AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES AN
INITIAL FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWESTERLY...AND STALLING OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN PUSH
OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST AND LOWEST CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE REVERSE BEING THE CASE FOR FRIDAY.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WITH THE NW WINDS ON FRIDAY...
EXPECT HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER 80S...
AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER THE OH VALLEY
WEAKENS AND THE BOUNDARY THAT LINGERED ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
WASHED OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DOMINATING SURFACE
FEATURE AND THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH CHANCES FOR AFT/EVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...

SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL
NC FOR MUCH OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD... BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHICH AIRFIELDS WILL BE MOST AFFECTED... AS SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
FORM ANYWHERE AND MEANDER/MOVE SLOWLY AROUND THE AREA. BUT IT
APPEARS THAT INT/GSO WILL SEE THE BEST COVERAGE THROUGH TODAY. A
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO
A LOW OVER AL/GA TODAY AND TONIGHT... WHICH WILL KEEP A VERY MOIST
AND UNSETTLED ATMOSPHERE OVER NC... WITH A LIGHT FLOW FROM THE SE
AND S DRAWING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. GSO/INT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
RDU HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE... EVEN AWAY FROM
SHOWERS/STORMS... INT/GSO/RDU HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS 08Z-13Z... AS THEY`VE SEEN THE MOST PRECIP IN THE LAST 24
HRS RESULTING IN A WET GROUND... SUSCEPTIBLE TO FOG/STRATUS GIVEN
THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. RWI/FAY ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A SHORTER
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN THE 08Z-13Z TIME FRAME. THESE CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY AFTER DAYBREAK BUT STAY MVFR UNTIL
AROUND NOON... WHEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN WITH CIGS BASED AT
10 000 TO 15 000 FT AGL... ALTHOUGH LINGERING MVFR CIGS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE N OR NW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
AND IT APPEARS ALL CENTRAL NC AIRFIELDS HAVE AN EQUAL CHANCE OF
SEEING SUCH STORMS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z TONIGHT... GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CIGS REDEVELOPING
BY LATE EVENING OR SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT... AT ALL TAF SITES... ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR FOG. THESE
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY LATE TUE MORNING. PATCHY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL REMAIN A GOOD BET THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH A LOW LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE EAST OR SE. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN ONCE
AGAIN TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING AS THE MOIST UNSETTLED PATTERN HOLDS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
MAINLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING... WITH CHANCES IMPROVING
EACH DAY THROUGH FRI. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 210642
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL HOLD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A MOIST ATLANTIC FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA... AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM MONDAY...

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: A DAMP AND VOLATILE ATMOSPHERE WILL HOLD OVER
CENTRAL NC AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH
CENTRAL GA/SC AND ACROSS SE NC... ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES AND MIDSOUTH. THIS TROUGH ALOFT
DEEPENS TO A BAGGY CLOSED LOW OVER SRN AL/GA BY TONIGHT... WITH A
WEAK BUT DISTINCT SHEAR AXIS STRETCHING NE ACROSS NC. PW VALUES ARE
ALREADY ON THE HIGH SIDE (120-140% OF NORMAL) AND ARE PROJECTED TO
RISE FURTHER... SURPASSING 2 INCHES OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA AND
PERHAPS 2.25 INCHES IN THE SE CWA... AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM
THE SSE AND DRAWS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHILE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS PERSIST WITHIN A WEAK STEERING
REGIME. THE LATEST HIGH-RES AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE PIEDMONT/WRN SANDHILLS WILL SEE THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... WHICH WOULD
THEN DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ERN SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY
MIDNIGHT. THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION BOOSTS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE... AND WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND IN THE FORECAST WITH GOOD
CHANCE POPS EAST AND LIKELY WEST EARLY... TRENDING DOWN IN THE WEST
AND UP IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THAT THE FLOW IS SO
WEAK WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST COLUMN AND SUBTLE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY OUTFLOWS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING... SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD POP UP ANYWHERE TODAY AND SIMPLY MEANDER. SLOW
STORM MOTION AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER (AROUND 3.5 KM) TO FOSTER
WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL BRING A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TODAY... ALTHOUGH NOT OVER A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO NECESSITATE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. RAINFALL COULD BE EXACERBATED OVER
THE FAR WRN PIEDMONT WHERE LOW LEVEL MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP THE
RETREATING SHALLOW SURFACE RIDGE MAY ENHANCE LIFT. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN TO LOWER CHANCE TONIGHT... LOWER IN THE NE AND BETTER IN THE SW
WHERE MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS WILL CUT DOWN ON HEATING TODAY ESPECIALLY EAST AND SE...
AND EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOW 80S NW TO MID 80S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. LOWS 68-72... LARGELY FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

CENTRAL NC WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE RIDGE OFF THE SE COAST...WITH A WEAK SHEAR AXIS
ELONGATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW PLENTY OF PWAT (AOA 2 INCHES) ACROSS OUR CWA...BUT FORECAST
CAPE STILL AOB 1000 J/KG AND VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW. AS
SUCH...LOOK FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING LOCALIZED SLOW-MOVING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL GIVEN
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT NEAR-NORMAL
HIGHS AROUND 90 IF SOME SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT THE USUAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AS A THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
SETS UP OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE
INCREASING WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL YIELD HIGHS AROUND 90
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. PWAT VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN
1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES...AND WITH CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND RELATIVELY
WEAK SHEAR...EXPECT THE MAIN STORM THREATS TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO TRAVERSE
THE CAROLINAS AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES AN
INITIAL FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWESTERLY...AND STALLING OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN PUSH
OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST AND LOWEST CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE REVERSE BEING THE CASE FOR FRIDAY.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WITH THE NW WINDS ON FRIDAY...
EXPECT HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER 80S...
AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER THE OH VALLEY
WEAKENS AND THE BOUNDARY THAT LINGERED ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
WASHED OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DOMINATING SURFACE
FEATURE AND THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH CHANCES FOR AFT/EVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...

SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL
NC FOR MUCH OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD... BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHICH AIRFIELDS WILL BE MOST AFFECTED... AS SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
FORM ANYWHERE AND MEANDER/MOVE SLOWLY AROUND THE AREA. BUT IT
APPEARS THAT INT/GSO WILL SEE THE BEST COVERAGE THROUGH TODAY. A
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO
A LOW OVER AL/GA TODAY AND TONIGHT... WHICH WILL KEEP A VERY MOIST
AND UNSETTLED ATMOSPHERE OVER NC... WITH A LIGHT FLOW FROM THE SE
AND S DRAWING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. GSO/INT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
RDU HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE... EVEN AWAY FROM
SHOWERS/STORMS... INT/GSO/RDU HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS 08Z-13Z... AS THEY`VE SEEN THE MOST PRECIP IN THE LAST 24
HRS RESULTING IN A WET GROUND... SUSCEPTIBLE TO FOG/STRATUS GIVEN
THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. RWI/FAY ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A SHORTER
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN THE 08Z-13Z TIME FRAME. THESE CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY AFTER DAYBREAK BUT STAY MVFR UNTIL
AROUND NOON... WHEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN WITH CIGS BASED AT
10 000 TO 15 000 FT AGL... ALTHOUGH LINGERING MVFR CIGS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE N OR NW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
AND IT APPEARS ALL CENTRAL NC AIRFIELDS HAVE AN EQUAL CHANCE OF
SEEING SUCH STORMS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z TONIGHT... GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CIGS REDEVELOPING
BY LATE EVENING OR SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT... AT ALL TAF SITES... ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR FOG. THESE
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY LATE TUE MORNING. PATCHY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL REMAIN A GOOD BET THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH A LOW LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE EAST OR SE. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN ONCE
AGAIN TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING AS THE MOIST UNSETTLED PATTERN HOLDS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
MAINLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING... WITH CHANCES IMPROVING
EACH DAY THROUGH FRI. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 210642
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL HOLD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A MOIST ATLANTIC FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA... AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM MONDAY...

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: A DAMP AND VOLATILE ATMOSPHERE WILL HOLD OVER
CENTRAL NC AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH
CENTRAL GA/SC AND ACROSS SE NC... ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST STATES AND MIDSOUTH. THIS TROUGH ALOFT
DEEPENS TO A BAGGY CLOSED LOW OVER SRN AL/GA BY TONIGHT... WITH A
WEAK BUT DISTINCT SHEAR AXIS STRETCHING NE ACROSS NC. PW VALUES ARE
ALREADY ON THE HIGH SIDE (120-140% OF NORMAL) AND ARE PROJECTED TO
RISE FURTHER... SURPASSING 2 INCHES OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA AND
PERHAPS 2.25 INCHES IN THE SE CWA... AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FROM
THE SSE AND DRAWS IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE WHILE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS PERSIST WITHIN A WEAK STEERING
REGIME. THE LATEST HIGH-RES AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE PIEDMONT/WRN SANDHILLS WILL SEE THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... WHICH WOULD
THEN DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ERN SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY
MIDNIGHT. THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION BOOSTS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE... AND WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND IN THE FORECAST WITH GOOD
CHANCE POPS EAST AND LIKELY WEST EARLY... TRENDING DOWN IN THE WEST
AND UP IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN THAT THE FLOW IS SO
WEAK WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST COLUMN AND SUBTLE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY OUTFLOWS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING... SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD POP UP ANYWHERE TODAY AND SIMPLY MEANDER. SLOW
STORM MOTION AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER (AROUND 3.5 KM) TO FOSTER
WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL BRING A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TODAY... ALTHOUGH NOT OVER A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO NECESSITATE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. RAINFALL COULD BE EXACERBATED OVER
THE FAR WRN PIEDMONT WHERE LOW LEVEL MOIST UPGLIDE ATOP THE
RETREATING SHALLOW SURFACE RIDGE MAY ENHANCE LIFT. WILL TREND POPS
DOWN TO LOWER CHANCE TONIGHT... LOWER IN THE NE AND BETTER IN THE SW
WHERE MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS WILL CUT DOWN ON HEATING TODAY ESPECIALLY EAST AND SE...
AND EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOW 80S NW TO MID 80S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN. LOWS 68-72... LARGELY FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

CENTRAL NC WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A CLOSED UPR LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE RIDGE OFF THE SE COAST...WITH A WEAK SHEAR AXIS
ELONGATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MEANWHILE...INVERTED TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW PLENTY OF PWAT (AOA 2 INCHES) ACROSS OUR CWA...BUT FORECAST
CAPE STILL AOB 1000 J/KG AND VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW. AS
SUCH...LOOK FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING LOCALIZED SLOW-MOVING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL GIVEN
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT NEAR-NORMAL
HIGHS AROUND 90 IF SOME SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECT THE USUAL SUMMERTIME
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AS A THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
SETS UP OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE
INCREASING WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL YIELD HIGHS AROUND 90
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. PWAT VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN
1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES...AND WITH CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND RELATIVELY
WEAK SHEAR...EXPECT THE MAIN STORM THREATS TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO TRAVERSE
THE CAROLINAS AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE 00Z GFS INDICATES AN
INITIAL FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWESTERLY...AND STALLING OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN PUSH
OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE NORTHWEST AND LOWEST CHANCES IN THE
SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE REVERSE BEING THE CASE FOR FRIDAY.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. WITH THE NW WINDS ON FRIDAY...
EXPECT HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER 80S...
AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER THE OH VALLEY
WEAKENS AND THE BOUNDARY THAT LINGERED ACROSS THE AREA BECOMES
WASHED OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LACK OF A DOMINATING SURFACE
FEATURE AND THE GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT...EXPECT A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH CHANCES FOR AFT/EVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...

SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL
NC FOR MUCH OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD... BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHICH AIRFIELDS WILL BE MOST AFFECTED... AS SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
FORM ANYWHERE AND MEANDER/MOVE SLOWLY AROUND THE AREA. BUT IT
APPEARS THAT INT/GSO WILL SEE THE BEST COVERAGE THROUGH TODAY. A
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO
A LOW OVER AL/GA TODAY AND TONIGHT... WHICH WILL KEEP A VERY MOIST
AND UNSETTLED ATMOSPHERE OVER NC... WITH A LIGHT FLOW FROM THE SE
AND S DRAWING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. GSO/INT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
RDU HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE... EVEN AWAY FROM
SHOWERS/STORMS... INT/GSO/RDU HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS 08Z-13Z... AS THEY`VE SEEN THE MOST PRECIP IN THE LAST 24
HRS RESULTING IN A WET GROUND... SUSCEPTIBLE TO FOG/STRATUS GIVEN
THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. RWI/FAY ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A SHORTER
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN THE 08Z-13Z TIME FRAME. THESE CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY AFTER DAYBREAK BUT STAY MVFR UNTIL
AROUND NOON... WHEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN WITH CIGS BASED AT
10 000 TO 15 000 FT AGL... ALTHOUGH LINGERING MVFR CIGS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE N OR NW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
AND IT APPEARS ALL CENTRAL NC AIRFIELDS HAVE AN EQUAL CHANCE OF
SEEING SUCH STORMS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z TONIGHT... GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CIGS REDEVELOPING
BY LATE EVENING OR SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT... AT ALL TAF SITES... ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR FOG. THESE
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY LATE TUE MORNING. PATCHY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL REMAIN A GOOD BET THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH A LOW LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE EAST OR SE. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN ONCE
AGAIN TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING AS THE MOIST UNSETTLED PATTERN HOLDS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
MAINLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING... WITH CHANCES IMPROVING
EACH DAY THROUGH FRI. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 210534
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL HOLD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A MOIST ATLANTIC FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA... AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 PM SUNDAY...

THE LATEST DATA ANALYSIS AND MODEL ASSESSMENT INDICATE SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE FORMING ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL NC... THEN LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH TIME NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS DID NOT FAVOR ONE PARTICULAR AREA OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING THE
EARLIER FORECAST OF MAINLY DIURNAL ACTIVITY... WEAKENING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE THIS MAY STILL OCCUR... THE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA HAS PROMPTED SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS IN
THE CAE AREA RECENTLY. A FEW OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANTS
OF THIS CLUSTER MAY AFFECT OUR PIEDMONT AND WESTERN SANDHILLS
OVERNIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGH...
GENERALLY IN THE 2.5 TO 3.5 INCH RANGE IN 3 HOURS... LOWER IN URBAN
AREAS OF COURSE. THE WEAK STEERING FLOW AND RELATIVELY SLOW
PROPAGATION AND TRAINING OF CELLS MAY STILL DROP LOCAL 2 INCH TOTALS
IN A FEW AREAS. THEREFORE... THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR WATER ISSUES ON
A LOCALIZED BASIS... WIDESPREAD CONCERNS OF FLASH FLOODING APPEAR TO
BE MINIMAL AT THE CURRENT TIME.

PREVIOUS UPDATE AT 800 PM...

A WARM FRONT CONTINUED TO BACK INLAND THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PIEDMONT OF NC THIS EVENING.
THIS IS THE CURRENT FOCI FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE CONTINUED TO BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AND UP AND
OVER THE BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS HAVING INCREASED INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S WELL INTO THE SE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. THE MID/UPPER
SUPPORT IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT STILL PRESENT WITH THE STILL SIGNIFICANT
MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST. WE
WILL RAISE POP TO LIKELY NEAR THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
WITH THE POP LARGELY DIURNAL. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE MOIST AIR MASS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. QPF RAISED INTO THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY FROM NEAR SOP TO RDU AS WELL. LOWS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER
TONIGHT THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS... REMAINING 70+ ALONG AND NEAR THE
BOUNDARY... WITH MID 60S N-NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SOUTH CAROLINA S/W PROJECTED TO LIFT E-NE INTO SE NC BY
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING.  THIS FEATURE
INTERACTING WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER/SUSTAIN SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE  FORECAST AREA. A LINGERING SFC RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN-NORTHWEST PIEDMONT MAY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
PLAN TO VARY POPS FROM CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH-NW TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE SE THIRD.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
S/W...FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE (LOWER
80S). IF CONVECTION ABSENT AT EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPS MAY END UP
REACHING THE MID 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS THE S/W LIFTS OFFSHORE AND ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. STILL COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS PERSIST OR RE-
GENERATE AS ADDITIONAL MINOR LIFT NEWD. POPS CAPPED AT 30-40
PERCENT FOR NOW. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY:  CENTRAL NC WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A CLOSED UPR LOW
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE RIDGE OFF THE SE COAST...WITH A WEAK
SHEAR AXIS ELONGATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MEANWHILE...INVERTED
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF PWAT (AOA 2 INCHES) ACROSS OUR CWA...BUT
FORECAST CAPE STILL AOB 1000 J/KG AND VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW. AS
SUCH...LOOK FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING LOCALIZED SLOW-MOVING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL GIVEN
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT NEAR-NORMAL
HIGHS AROUND 90 IF SOME SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 70.

WEDNESDAY: WE`LL SEE A CHANGE TO A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN WITH
THE PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH SETTING UP AS MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
MOVING ACROS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAPE INCREASING TO 1500 J/KG NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TRIANGLE...BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 20KT.
THUS...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND/OR SOME HAIL...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH PWAT STILL AROUND
2 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO OUR CWA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND STALL ACROSS OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY. AS SUCH...POPS WILL TREND FROM
HIGHEST NORTHWEST TO LOWEST SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...THEN FLIPPING TO
HIGHEST SOUTH/EAST TO LOWEST NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
STILL ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S)
GIVEN THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...THEN COOLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT ACROSS OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA.

NEXT WEEKEND:  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAKENED OR DISSIPATED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DURING THIS TIME WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND TEMPS NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS AND
NEAR 70 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...

SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL
NC FOR MUCH OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD... BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHICH AIRFIELDS WILL BE MOST AFFECTED... AS SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
FORM ANYWHERE AND MEANDER/MOVE SLOWLY AROUND THE AREA. BUT IT
APPEARS THAT INT/GSO WILL SEE THE BEST COVERAGE THROUGH TODAY. A
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO
A LOW OVER AL/GA TODAY AND TONIGHT... WHICH WILL KEEP A VERY MOIST
AND UNSETTLED ATMOSPHERE OVER NC... WITH A LIGHT FLOW FROM THE SE
AND S DRAWING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. GSO/INT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
RDU HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE... EVEN AWAY FROM
SHOWERS/STORMS... INT/GSO/RDU HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS 08Z-13Z... AS THEY`VE SEEN THE MOST PRECIP IN THE LAST 24
HRS RESULTING IN A WET GROUND... SUSCEPTIBLE TO FOG/STRATUS GIVEN
THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. RWI/FAY ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A SHORTER
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN THE 08Z-13Z TIME FRAME. THESE CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY AFTER DAYBREAK BUT STAY MVFR UNTIL
AROUND NOON... WHEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN WITH CIGS BASED AT
10 000 TO 15 000 FT AGL... ALTHOUGH LINGERING MVFR CIGS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE N OR NW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
AND IT APPEARS ALL CENTRAL NC AIRFIELDS HAVE AN EQUAL CHANCE OF
SEEING SUCH STORMS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z TONIGHT... GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CIGS REDEVELOPING
BY LATE EVENING OR SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT... AT ALL TAF SITES... ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR FOG. THESE
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY LATE TUE MORNING. PATCHY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL REMAIN A GOOD BET THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH A LOW LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE EAST OR SE. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN ONCE
AGAIN TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING AS THE MOIST UNSETTLED PATTERN HOLDS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
MAINLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING... WITH CHANCES IMPROVING
EACH DAY THROUGH FRI. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...32
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 210534
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL HOLD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A MOIST ATLANTIC FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA... AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 PM SUNDAY...

THE LATEST DATA ANALYSIS AND MODEL ASSESSMENT INDICATE SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE FORMING ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL NC... THEN LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH TIME NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS DID NOT FAVOR ONE PARTICULAR AREA OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING THE
EARLIER FORECAST OF MAINLY DIURNAL ACTIVITY... WEAKENING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE THIS MAY STILL OCCUR... THE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA HAS PROMPTED SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS IN
THE CAE AREA RECENTLY. A FEW OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANTS
OF THIS CLUSTER MAY AFFECT OUR PIEDMONT AND WESTERN SANDHILLS
OVERNIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGH...
GENERALLY IN THE 2.5 TO 3.5 INCH RANGE IN 3 HOURS... LOWER IN URBAN
AREAS OF COURSE. THE WEAK STEERING FLOW AND RELATIVELY SLOW
PROPAGATION AND TRAINING OF CELLS MAY STILL DROP LOCAL 2 INCH TOTALS
IN A FEW AREAS. THEREFORE... THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR WATER ISSUES ON
A LOCALIZED BASIS... WIDESPREAD CONCERNS OF FLASH FLOODING APPEAR TO
BE MINIMAL AT THE CURRENT TIME.

PREVIOUS UPDATE AT 800 PM...

A WARM FRONT CONTINUED TO BACK INLAND THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PIEDMONT OF NC THIS EVENING.
THIS IS THE CURRENT FOCI FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE CONTINUED TO BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AND UP AND
OVER THE BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS HAVING INCREASED INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S WELL INTO THE SE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. THE MID/UPPER
SUPPORT IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT STILL PRESENT WITH THE STILL SIGNIFICANT
MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST. WE
WILL RAISE POP TO LIKELY NEAR THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
WITH THE POP LARGELY DIURNAL. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE MOIST AIR MASS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. QPF RAISED INTO THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY FROM NEAR SOP TO RDU AS WELL. LOWS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER
TONIGHT THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS... REMAINING 70+ ALONG AND NEAR THE
BOUNDARY... WITH MID 60S N-NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SOUTH CAROLINA S/W PROJECTED TO LIFT E-NE INTO SE NC BY
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING.  THIS FEATURE
INTERACTING WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER/SUSTAIN SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE  FORECAST AREA. A LINGERING SFC RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN-NORTHWEST PIEDMONT MAY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
PLAN TO VARY POPS FROM CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH-NW TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE SE THIRD.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
S/W...FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE (LOWER
80S). IF CONVECTION ABSENT AT EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPS MAY END UP
REACHING THE MID 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS THE S/W LIFTS OFFSHORE AND ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. STILL COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS PERSIST OR RE-
GENERATE AS ADDITIONAL MINOR LIFT NEWD. POPS CAPPED AT 30-40
PERCENT FOR NOW. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY:  CENTRAL NC WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A CLOSED UPR LOW
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE RIDGE OFF THE SE COAST...WITH A WEAK
SHEAR AXIS ELONGATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MEANWHILE...INVERTED
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF PWAT (AOA 2 INCHES) ACROSS OUR CWA...BUT
FORECAST CAPE STILL AOB 1000 J/KG AND VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW. AS
SUCH...LOOK FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING LOCALIZED SLOW-MOVING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL GIVEN
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT NEAR-NORMAL
HIGHS AROUND 90 IF SOME SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 70.

WEDNESDAY: WE`LL SEE A CHANGE TO A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN WITH
THE PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH SETTING UP AS MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
MOVING ACROS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAPE INCREASING TO 1500 J/KG NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TRIANGLE...BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 20KT.
THUS...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND/OR SOME HAIL...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH PWAT STILL AROUND
2 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO OUR CWA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND STALL ACROSS OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY. AS SUCH...POPS WILL TREND FROM
HIGHEST NORTHWEST TO LOWEST SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...THEN FLIPPING TO
HIGHEST SOUTH/EAST TO LOWEST NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
STILL ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S)
GIVEN THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...THEN COOLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT ACROSS OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA.

NEXT WEEKEND:  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAKENED OR DISSIPATED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DURING THIS TIME WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND TEMPS NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS AND
NEAR 70 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...

SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL
NC FOR MUCH OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD... BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHICH AIRFIELDS WILL BE MOST AFFECTED... AS SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
FORM ANYWHERE AND MEANDER/MOVE SLOWLY AROUND THE AREA. BUT IT
APPEARS THAT INT/GSO WILL SEE THE BEST COVERAGE THROUGH TODAY. A
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO
A LOW OVER AL/GA TODAY AND TONIGHT... WHICH WILL KEEP A VERY MOIST
AND UNSETTLED ATMOSPHERE OVER NC... WITH A LIGHT FLOW FROM THE SE
AND S DRAWING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. GSO/INT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
RDU HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE... EVEN AWAY FROM
SHOWERS/STORMS... INT/GSO/RDU HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS 08Z-13Z... AS THEY`VE SEEN THE MOST PRECIP IN THE LAST 24
HRS RESULTING IN A WET GROUND... SUSCEPTIBLE TO FOG/STRATUS GIVEN
THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. RWI/FAY ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A SHORTER
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN THE 08Z-13Z TIME FRAME. THESE CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY AFTER DAYBREAK BUT STAY MVFR UNTIL
AROUND NOON... WHEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN WITH CIGS BASED AT
10 000 TO 15 000 FT AGL... ALTHOUGH LINGERING MVFR CIGS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE N OR NW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
AND IT APPEARS ALL CENTRAL NC AIRFIELDS HAVE AN EQUAL CHANCE OF
SEEING SUCH STORMS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z TONIGHT... GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CIGS REDEVELOPING
BY LATE EVENING OR SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT... AT ALL TAF SITES... ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR FOG. THESE
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY LATE TUE MORNING. PATCHY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL REMAIN A GOOD BET THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH A LOW LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE EAST OR SE. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN ONCE
AGAIN TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING AS THE MOIST UNSETTLED PATTERN HOLDS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
MAINLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING... WITH CHANCES IMPROVING
EACH DAY THROUGH FRI. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...32
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 210533
AFDRAH

DDHHMM
WRKGIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL HOLD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A MOIST ATLANTIC FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA... AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 PM SUNDAY...

THE LATEST DATA ANALYSIS AND MODEL ASSESSMENT INDICATE SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE FORMING ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL NC... THEN LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH TIME NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS DID NOT FAVOR ONE PARTICULAR AREA OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING THE
EARLIER FORECAST OF MAINLY DIURNAL ACTIVITY... WEAKENING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE THIS MAY STILL OCCUR... THE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA HAS PROMPTED SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS IN
THE CAE AREA RECENTLY. A FEW OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANTS
OF THIS CLUSTER MAY AFFECT OUR PIEDMONT AND WESTERN SANDHILLS
OVERNIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGH...
GENERALLY IN THE 2.5 TO 3.5 INCH RANGE IN 3 HOURS... LOWER IN URBAN
AREAS OF COURSE. THE WEAK STEERING FLOW AND RELATIVELY SLOW
PROPAGATION AND TRAINING OF CELLS MAY STILL DROP LOCAL 2 INCH TOTALS
IN A FEW AREAS. THEREFORE... THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR WATER ISSUES ON
A LOCALIZED BASIS... WIDESPREAD CONCERNS OF FLASH FLOODING APPEAR TO
BE MINIMAL AT THE CURRENT TIME.

PREVIOUS UPDATE AT 800 PM...

A WARM FRONT CONTINUED TO BACK INLAND THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PIEDMONT OF NC THIS EVENING.
THIS IS THE CURRENT FOCI FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE CONTINUED TO BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AND UP AND
OVER THE BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS HAVING INCREASED INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S WELL INTO THE SE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. THE MID/UPPER
SUPPORT IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT STILL PRESENT WITH THE STILL SIGNIFICANT
MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST. WE
WILL RAISE POP TO LIKELY NEAR THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
WITH THE POP LARGELY DIURNAL. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE MOIST AIR MASS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. QPF RAISED INTO THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY FROM NEAR SOP TO RDU AS WELL. LOWS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER
TONIGHT THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS... REMAINING 70+ ALONG AND NEAR THE
BOUNDARY... WITH MID 60S N-NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SOUTH CAROLINA S/W PROJECTED TO LIFT E-NE INTO SE NC BY
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING.  THIS FEATURE
INTERACTING WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER/SUSTAIN SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE  FORECAST AREA. A LINGERING SFC RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN-NORTHWEST PIEDMONT MAY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
PLAN TO VARY POPS FROM CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH-NW TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE SE THIRD.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
S/W...FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE (LOWER
80S). IF CONVECTION ABSENT AT EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPS MAY END UP
REACHING THE MID 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS THE S/W LIFTS OFFSHORE AND ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. STILL COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS PERSIST OR RE-
GENERATE AS ADDITIONAL MINOR LIFT NEWD. POPS CAPPED AT 30-40
PERCENT FOR NOW. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY:  CENTRAL NC WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A CLOSED UPR LOW
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE RIDGE OFF THE SE COAST...WITH A WEAK
SHEAR AXIS ELONGATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MEANWHILE...INVERTED
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF PWAT (AOA 2 INCHES) ACROSS OUR CWA...BUT
FORECAST CAPE STILL AOB 1000 J/KG AND VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW. AS
SUCH...LOOK FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING LOCALIZED SLOW-MOVING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL GIVEN
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT NEAR-NORMAL
HIGHS AROUND 90 IF SOME SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 70.

WEDNESDAY: WE`LL SEE A CHANGE TO A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN WITH
THE PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH SETTING UP AS MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
MOVING ACROS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAPE INCREASING TO 1500 J/KG NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TRIANGLE...BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 20KT.
THUS...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND/OR SOME HAIL...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH PWAT STILL AROUND
2 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO OUR CWA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND STALL ACROSS OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY. AS SUCH...POPS WILL TREND FROM
HIGHEST NORTHWEST TO LOWEST SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...THEN FLIPPING TO
HIGHEST SOUTH/EAST TO LOWEST NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
STILL ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S)
GIVEN THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...THEN COOLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT ACROSS OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA.

NEXT WEEKEND:  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAKENED OR DISSIPATED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DURING THIS TIME WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND TEMPS NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS AND
NEAR 70 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...

SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL
NC FOR MUCH OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD... BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHICH AIRFIELDS WILL BE MOST AFFECTED... AS SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
FORM ANYWHERE AND MEANDER/MOVE SLOWLY AROUND THE AREA. BUT IT
APPEARS THAT INT/GSO WILL SEE THE BEST COVERAGE THROUGH TODAY. A
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO
A LOW OVER AL/GA TODAY AND TONIGHT... WHICH WILL KEEP A VERY MOIST
AND UNSETTLED ATMOSPHERE OVER NC... WITH A LIGHT FLOW FROM THE SE
AND S DRAWING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. GSO/INT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
RDU HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE... EVEN AWAY FROM
SHOWERS/STORMS... INT/GSO/RDU HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS 08Z-13Z... AS THEY`VE SEEN THE MOST PRECIP IN THE LAST 24
HRS RESULTING IN A WET GROUND... SUSCEPTIBLE TO FOG/STRATUS GIVEN
THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. RWI/FAY ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A SHORTER
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN THE 08Z-13Z TIME FRAME. THESE CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY AFTER DAYBREAK BUT STAY MVFR UNTIL
AROUND NOON... WHEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN WITH CIGS BASED AT
10 000 TO 15 000 FT AGL... ALTHOUGH LINGERING MVFR CIGS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE N OR NW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
AND IT APPEARS ALL CENTRAL NC AIRFIELDS HAVE AN EQUAL CHANCE OF
SEEING SUCH STORMS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z TONIGHT... GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CIGS REDEVELOPING
BY LATE EVENING OR SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT... AT ALL TAF SITES... ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR FOG. THESE
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY LATE TUE MORNING. PATCHY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL REMAIN A GOOD BET THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH A LOW LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE EAST OR SE. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN ONCE
AGAIN TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING AS THE MOIST UNSETTLED PATTERN HOLDS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
MAINLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING... WITH CHANCES IMPROVING
EACH DAY THROUGH FRI. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...32
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 210533
AFDRAH

DDHHMM
WRKGIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL HOLD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A MOIST ATLANTIC FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA... AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 PM SUNDAY...

THE LATEST DATA ANALYSIS AND MODEL ASSESSMENT INDICATE SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE FORMING ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL NC... THEN LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH TIME NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS DID NOT FAVOR ONE PARTICULAR AREA OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING THE
EARLIER FORECAST OF MAINLY DIURNAL ACTIVITY... WEAKENING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE THIS MAY STILL OCCUR... THE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA HAS PROMPTED SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS IN
THE CAE AREA RECENTLY. A FEW OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANTS
OF THIS CLUSTER MAY AFFECT OUR PIEDMONT AND WESTERN SANDHILLS
OVERNIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGH...
GENERALLY IN THE 2.5 TO 3.5 INCH RANGE IN 3 HOURS... LOWER IN URBAN
AREAS OF COURSE. THE WEAK STEERING FLOW AND RELATIVELY SLOW
PROPAGATION AND TRAINING OF CELLS MAY STILL DROP LOCAL 2 INCH TOTALS
IN A FEW AREAS. THEREFORE... THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR WATER ISSUES ON
A LOCALIZED BASIS... WIDESPREAD CONCERNS OF FLASH FLOODING APPEAR TO
BE MINIMAL AT THE CURRENT TIME.

PREVIOUS UPDATE AT 800 PM...

A WARM FRONT CONTINUED TO BACK INLAND THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PIEDMONT OF NC THIS EVENING.
THIS IS THE CURRENT FOCI FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE CONTINUED TO BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AND UP AND
OVER THE BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS HAVING INCREASED INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S WELL INTO THE SE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. THE MID/UPPER
SUPPORT IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT STILL PRESENT WITH THE STILL SIGNIFICANT
MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST. WE
WILL RAISE POP TO LIKELY NEAR THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
WITH THE POP LARGELY DIURNAL. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE MOIST AIR MASS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. QPF RAISED INTO THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY FROM NEAR SOP TO RDU AS WELL. LOWS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER
TONIGHT THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS... REMAINING 70+ ALONG AND NEAR THE
BOUNDARY... WITH MID 60S N-NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SOUTH CAROLINA S/W PROJECTED TO LIFT E-NE INTO SE NC BY
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING.  THIS FEATURE
INTERACTING WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER/SUSTAIN SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE  FORECAST AREA. A LINGERING SFC RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN-NORTHWEST PIEDMONT MAY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
PLAN TO VARY POPS FROM CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH-NW TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE SE THIRD.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
S/W...FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE (LOWER
80S). IF CONVECTION ABSENT AT EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPS MAY END UP
REACHING THE MID 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS THE S/W LIFTS OFFSHORE AND ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. STILL COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS PERSIST OR RE-
GENERATE AS ADDITIONAL MINOR LIFT NEWD. POPS CAPPED AT 30-40
PERCENT FOR NOW. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY:  CENTRAL NC WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A CLOSED UPR LOW
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE RIDGE OFF THE SE COAST...WITH A WEAK
SHEAR AXIS ELONGATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MEANWHILE...INVERTED
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF PWAT (AOA 2 INCHES) ACROSS OUR CWA...BUT
FORECAST CAPE STILL AOB 1000 J/KG AND VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW. AS
SUCH...LOOK FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING LOCALIZED SLOW-MOVING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL GIVEN
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT NEAR-NORMAL
HIGHS AROUND 90 IF SOME SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 70.

WEDNESDAY: WE`LL SEE A CHANGE TO A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN WITH
THE PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH SETTING UP AS MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
MOVING ACROS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAPE INCREASING TO 1500 J/KG NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TRIANGLE...BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 20KT.
THUS...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND/OR SOME HAIL...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH PWAT STILL AROUND
2 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO OUR CWA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND STALL ACROSS OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY. AS SUCH...POPS WILL TREND FROM
HIGHEST NORTHWEST TO LOWEST SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...THEN FLIPPING TO
HIGHEST SOUTH/EAST TO LOWEST NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
STILL ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S)
GIVEN THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...THEN COOLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT ACROSS OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA.

NEXT WEEKEND:  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAKENED OR DISSIPATED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DURING THIS TIME WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND TEMPS NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS AND
NEAR 70 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...

SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL
NC FOR MUCH OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD... BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHICH AIRFIELDS WILL BE MOST AFFECTED... AS SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
FORM ANYWHERE AND MEANDER/MOVE SLOWLY AROUND THE AREA. BUT IT
APPEARS THAT INT/GSO WILL SEE THE BEST COVERAGE THROUGH TODAY. A
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO
A LOW OVER AL/GA TODAY AND TONIGHT... WHICH WILL KEEP A VERY MOIST
AND UNSETTLED ATMOSPHERE OVER NC... WITH A LIGHT FLOW FROM THE SE
AND S DRAWING IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE. GSO/INT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
RDU HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE... EVEN AWAY FROM
SHOWERS/STORMS... INT/GSO/RDU HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING IFR-LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS 08Z-13Z... AS THEY`VE SEEN THE MOST PRECIP IN THE LAST 24
HRS RESULTING IN A WET GROUND... SUSCEPTIBLE TO FOG/STRATUS GIVEN
THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. RWI/FAY ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A SHORTER
PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN THE 08Z-13Z TIME FRAME. THESE CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY AFTER DAYBREAK BUT STAY MVFR UNTIL
AROUND NOON... WHEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN WITH CIGS BASED AT
10 000 TO 15 000 FT AGL... ALTHOUGH LINGERING MVFR CIGS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE N OR NW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
AND IT APPEARS ALL CENTRAL NC AIRFIELDS HAVE AN EQUAL CHANCE OF
SEEING SUCH STORMS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z TONIGHT... GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CIGS REDEVELOPING
BY LATE EVENING OR SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT... AT ALL TAF SITES... ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR FOG. THESE
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY LATE TUE MORNING. PATCHY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL REMAIN A GOOD BET THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH A LOW LEVEL
FLOW FROM THE EAST OR SE. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN ONCE
AGAIN TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING AS THE MOIST UNSETTLED PATTERN HOLDS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...
MAINLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING... WITH CHANCES IMPROVING
EACH DAY THROUGH FRI. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...32
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 210241
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1040 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 PM SUNDAY...

THE LATEST DATA ANALYSIS AND MODEL ASSESSMENT INDICATE SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE FORMING ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL NC... THEN LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH TIME NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS DID NOT FAVOR ONE PARTICULAR AREA OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING THE
EARLIER FORECAST OF MAINLY DIURNAL ACTIVITY... WEAKENING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE THIS MAY STILL OCCUR... THE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA HAS PROMPTED SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS IN
THE CAE AREA RECENTLY. A FEW OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANTS
OF THIS CLUSTER MAY AFFECT OUR PIEDMONT AND WESTERN SANDHILLS
OVERNIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGH...
GENERALLY IN THE 2.5 TO 3.5 INCH RANGE IN 3 HOURS... LOWER IN URBAN
AREAS OF COURSE. THE WEAK STEERING FLOW AND RELATIVELY SLOW
PROPAGATION AND TRAINING OF CELLS MAY STILL DROP LOCAL 2 INCH TOTALS
IN A FEW AREAS. THEREFORE... THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR WATER ISSUES ON
A LOCALIZED BASIS... WIDESPREAD CONCERNS OF FLASH FLOODING APPEAR TO
BE MINIMAL AT THE CURRENT TIME.

PREVIOUS UPDATE AT 800 PM...

A WARM FRONT CONTINUED TO BACK INLAND THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PIEDMONT OF NC THIS EVENING.
THIS IS THE CURRENT FOCI FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE CONTINUED TO BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AND UP AND
OVER THE BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS HAVING INCREASED INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S WELL INTO THE SE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. THE MID/UPPER
SUPPORT IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT STILL PRESENT WITH THE STILL SIGNIFICANT
MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST. WE
WILL RAISE POP TO LIKELY NEAR THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
WITH THE POP LARGELY DIURNAL. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE MOIST AIR MASS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. QPF RAISED INTO THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY FROM NEAR SOP TO RDU AS WELL. LOWS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER
TONIGHT THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS... REMAINING 70+ ALONG AND NEAR THE
BOUNDARY... WITH MID 60S N-NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SOUTH CAROLINA S/W PROJECTED TO LIFT E-NE INTO SE NC BY
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING.  THIS FEATURE
INTERACTING WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER/SUSTAIN SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE  FORECAST AREA. A LINGERING SFC RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN-NORTHWEST PIEDMONT MAY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
PLAN TO VARY POPS FROM CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH-NW TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE SE THIRD.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
S/W...FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE (LOWER
80S). IF CONVECTION ABSENT AT EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPS MAY END UP
REACHING THE MID 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS THE S/W LIFTS OFFSHORE AND ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. STILL COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS PERSIST OR RE-
GENERATE AS ADDITIONAL MINOR LIFT NEWD. POPS CAPPED AT 30-40
PERCENT FOR NOW. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY:  CENTRAL NC WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A CLOSED UPR LOW
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE RIDGE OFF THE SE COAST...WITH A WEAK
SHEAR AXIS ELONGATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MEANWHILE...INVERTED
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF PWAT (AOA 2 INCHES) ACROSS OUR CWA...BUT
FORECAST CAPE STILL AOB 1000 J/KG AND VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW. AS
SUCH...LOOK FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING LOCALIZED SLOW-MOVING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL GIVEN
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT NEAR-NORMAL
HIGHS AROUND 90 IF SOME SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 70.

WEDNESDAY: WE`LL SEE A CHANGE TO A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN WITH
THE PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH SETTING UP AS MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
MOVING ACROS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAPE INCREASING TO 1500 J/KG NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TRIANGLE...BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 20KT.
THUS...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND/OR SOME HAIL...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH PWAT STILL AROUND
2 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO OUR CWA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND STALL ACROSS OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY. AS SUCH...POPS WILL TREND FROM
HIGHEST NORTHWEST TO LOWEST SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...THEN FLIPPING TO
HIGHEST SOUTH/EAST TO LOWEST NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
STILL ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S)
GIVEN THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...THEN COOLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT ACROSS OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA.

NEXT WEEKEND:  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAKENED OR DISSIPATED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DURING THIS TIME WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND TEMPS NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS AND
NEAR 70 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM SUNDAY...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTH
TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC...LIKELY BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (KRDU,
KRWI, KGSO, KINT) OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...LOW CLOUDS/FOG (IFR TO LIFR) ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 06-09Z TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS
THE REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
STRATUS/FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR EACH MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...32
NEAR TERM...32
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 210241
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1040 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 PM SUNDAY...

THE LATEST DATA ANALYSIS AND MODEL ASSESSMENT INDICATE SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE FORMING ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL NC... THEN LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH TIME NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE LATEST HI-RES
MODELS DID NOT FAVOR ONE PARTICULAR AREA OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING THE
EARLIER FORECAST OF MAINLY DIURNAL ACTIVITY... WEAKENING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE THIS MAY STILL OCCUR... THE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA HAS PROMPTED SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS IN
THE CAE AREA RECENTLY. A FEW OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANTS
OF THIS CLUSTER MAY AFFECT OUR PIEDMONT AND WESTERN SANDHILLS
OVERNIGHT. THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGH...
GENERALLY IN THE 2.5 TO 3.5 INCH RANGE IN 3 HOURS... LOWER IN URBAN
AREAS OF COURSE. THE WEAK STEERING FLOW AND RELATIVELY SLOW
PROPAGATION AND TRAINING OF CELLS MAY STILL DROP LOCAL 2 INCH TOTALS
IN A FEW AREAS. THEREFORE... THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR WATER ISSUES ON
A LOCALIZED BASIS... WIDESPREAD CONCERNS OF FLASH FLOODING APPEAR TO
BE MINIMAL AT THE CURRENT TIME.

PREVIOUS UPDATE AT 800 PM...

A WARM FRONT CONTINUED TO BACK INLAND THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PIEDMONT OF NC THIS EVENING.
THIS IS THE CURRENT FOCI FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE CONTINUED TO BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AND UP AND
OVER THE BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS HAVING INCREASED INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S WELL INTO THE SE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. THE MID/UPPER
SUPPORT IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT STILL PRESENT WITH THE STILL SIGNIFICANT
MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST. WE
WILL RAISE POP TO LIKELY NEAR THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
WITH THE POP LARGELY DIURNAL. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE MOIST AIR MASS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. QPF RAISED INTO THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY FROM NEAR SOP TO RDU AS WELL. LOWS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER
TONIGHT THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS... REMAINING 70+ ALONG AND NEAR THE
BOUNDARY... WITH MID 60S N-NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SOUTH CAROLINA S/W PROJECTED TO LIFT E-NE INTO SE NC BY
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING.  THIS FEATURE
INTERACTING WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER/SUSTAIN SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE  FORECAST AREA. A LINGERING SFC RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN-NORTHWEST PIEDMONT MAY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
PLAN TO VARY POPS FROM CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH-NW TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE SE THIRD.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
S/W...FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE (LOWER
80S). IF CONVECTION ABSENT AT EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPS MAY END UP
REACHING THE MID 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS THE S/W LIFTS OFFSHORE AND ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. STILL COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS PERSIST OR RE-
GENERATE AS ADDITIONAL MINOR LIFT NEWD. POPS CAPPED AT 30-40
PERCENT FOR NOW. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY:  CENTRAL NC WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A CLOSED UPR LOW
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE RIDGE OFF THE SE COAST...WITH A WEAK
SHEAR AXIS ELONGATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MEANWHILE...INVERTED
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF PWAT (AOA 2 INCHES) ACROSS OUR CWA...BUT
FORECAST CAPE STILL AOB 1000 J/KG AND VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW. AS
SUCH...LOOK FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING LOCALIZED SLOW-MOVING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL GIVEN
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT NEAR-NORMAL
HIGHS AROUND 90 IF SOME SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 70.

WEDNESDAY: WE`LL SEE A CHANGE TO A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN WITH
THE PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH SETTING UP AS MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
MOVING ACROS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAPE INCREASING TO 1500 J/KG NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TRIANGLE...BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 20KT.
THUS...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND/OR SOME HAIL...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH PWAT STILL AROUND
2 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO OUR CWA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND STALL ACROSS OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY. AS SUCH...POPS WILL TREND FROM
HIGHEST NORTHWEST TO LOWEST SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...THEN FLIPPING TO
HIGHEST SOUTH/EAST TO LOWEST NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
STILL ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S)
GIVEN THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...THEN COOLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT ACROSS OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA.

NEXT WEEKEND:  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAKENED OR DISSIPATED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DURING THIS TIME WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND TEMPS NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS AND
NEAR 70 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM SUNDAY...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTH
TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC...LIKELY BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (KRDU,
KRWI, KGSO, KINT) OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...LOW CLOUDS/FOG (IFR TO LIFR) ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 06-09Z TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS
THE REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
STRATUS/FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR EACH MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...32
NEAR TERM...32
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 210009
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM SUNDAY...

A WARM FRONT CONTINUED TO BACK INLAND THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PIEDMONT OF NC THIS EVENING.
THIS IS THE CURRENT FOCI FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE CONTINUE TO BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AND UP AND
OVER THE BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS HAVING INCREASED INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S WELL INTO THE SE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. THE MID/UPPER
SUPPORT IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT STILL PRESENT WITH THE STILL SIGNIFICANT
MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST. WE
WILL RAISE POP TO LIKELY NEAR THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
WITH THE POP LARGELY DIURNAL. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE MOIST AIR MASS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. QPF RAISED INTO THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY FROM NEAR SOP TO RDU AS WELL. LOWS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER
TONIGHT THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS... REMAINING 70+ ALONG AND NEAR THE
BOUNDARY... WITH MID 60S N-NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SOUTH CAROLINA S/W PROJECTED TO LIFT E-NE INTO SE NC BY
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING.  THIS FEATURE
INTERACTING WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER/SUSTAIN SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE  FORECAST AREA. A LINGERING SFC RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN-NORTHWEST PIEDMONT MAY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
PLAN TO VARY POPS FROM CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH-NW TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE SE THIRD.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
S/W...FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE (LOWER
80S). IF CONVECTION ABSENT AT EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPS MAY END UP
REACHING THE MID 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS THE S/W LIFTS OFFSHORE AND ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. STILL COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS PERSIST OR RE-
GENERATE AS ADDITIONAL MINOR LIFT NEWD. POPS CAPPED AT 30-40
PERCENT FOR NOW. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY:  CENTRAL NC WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A CLOSED UPR LOW
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE RIDGE OFF THE SE COAST...WITH A WEAK
SHEAR AXIS ELONGATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MEANWHILE...INVERTED
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF PWAT (AOA 2 INCHES) ACROSS OUR CWA...BUT
FORECAST CAPE STILL AOB 1000 J/KG AND VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW. AS
SUCH...LOOK FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING LOCALIZED SLOW-MOVING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL GIVEN
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT NEAR-NORMAL
HIGHS AROUND 90 IF SOME SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 70.

WEDNESDAY: WE`LL SEE A CHANGE TO A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN WITH
THE PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH SETTING UP AS MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
MOVING ACROS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAPE INCREASING TO 1500 J/KG NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TRIANGLE...BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 20KT.
THUS...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND/OR SOME HAIL...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH PWAT STILL AROUND
2 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO OUR CWA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND STALL ACROSS OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY. AS SUCH...POPS WILL TREND FROM
HIGHEST NORTHWEST TO LOWEST SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...THEN FLIPPING TO
HIGHEST SOUTH/EAST TO LOWEST NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
STILL ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S)
GIVEN THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...THEN COOLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT ACROSS OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA.

NEXT WEEKEND:  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAKENED OR DISSIPATED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DURING THIS TIME WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND TEMPS NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS AND
NEAR 70 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM SUNDAY...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTH
TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC...LIKELY BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (KRDU,
KRWI, KGSO, KINT) OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...LOW CLOUDS/FOG (IFR TO LIFR) ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 06-09Z TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS
THE REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
STRATUS/FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR EACH MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...32
NEAR TERM...32
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 210009
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM SUNDAY...

A WARM FRONT CONTINUED TO BACK INLAND THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PIEDMONT OF NC THIS EVENING.
THIS IS THE CURRENT FOCI FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE CONTINUE TO BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AND UP AND
OVER THE BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS HAVING INCREASED INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S WELL INTO THE SE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. THE MID/UPPER
SUPPORT IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT STILL PRESENT WITH THE STILL SIGNIFICANT
MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST. WE
WILL RAISE POP TO LIKELY NEAR THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
WITH THE POP LARGELY DIURNAL. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE MOIST AIR MASS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. QPF RAISED INTO THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY FROM NEAR SOP TO RDU AS WELL. LOWS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER
TONIGHT THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS... REMAINING 70+ ALONG AND NEAR THE
BOUNDARY... WITH MID 60S N-NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SOUTH CAROLINA S/W PROJECTED TO LIFT E-NE INTO SE NC BY
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING.  THIS FEATURE
INTERACTING WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER/SUSTAIN SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE  FORECAST AREA. A LINGERING SFC RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN-NORTHWEST PIEDMONT MAY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
PLAN TO VARY POPS FROM CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH-NW TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE SE THIRD.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
S/W...FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE (LOWER
80S). IF CONVECTION ABSENT AT EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPS MAY END UP
REACHING THE MID 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS THE S/W LIFTS OFFSHORE AND ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. STILL COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS PERSIST OR RE-
GENERATE AS ADDITIONAL MINOR LIFT NEWD. POPS CAPPED AT 30-40
PERCENT FOR NOW. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY:  CENTRAL NC WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A CLOSED UPR LOW
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE RIDGE OFF THE SE COAST...WITH A WEAK
SHEAR AXIS ELONGATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MEANWHILE...INVERTED
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF PWAT (AOA 2 INCHES) ACROSS OUR CWA...BUT
FORECAST CAPE STILL AOB 1000 J/KG AND VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW. AS
SUCH...LOOK FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING LOCALIZED SLOW-MOVING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL GIVEN
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT NEAR-NORMAL
HIGHS AROUND 90 IF SOME SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 70.

WEDNESDAY: WE`LL SEE A CHANGE TO A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN WITH
THE PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH SETTING UP AS MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
MOVING ACROS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAPE INCREASING TO 1500 J/KG NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TRIANGLE...BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 20KT.
THUS...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND/OR SOME HAIL...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH PWAT STILL AROUND
2 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO OUR CWA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND STALL ACROSS OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY. AS SUCH...POPS WILL TREND FROM
HIGHEST NORTHWEST TO LOWEST SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...THEN FLIPPING TO
HIGHEST SOUTH/EAST TO LOWEST NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
STILL ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S)
GIVEN THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...THEN COOLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT ACROSS OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA.

NEXT WEEKEND:  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAKENED OR DISSIPATED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DURING THIS TIME WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND TEMPS NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS AND
NEAR 70 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM SUNDAY...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTH
TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC...LIKELY BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (KRDU,
KRWI, KGSO, KINT) OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...LOW CLOUDS/FOG (IFR TO LIFR) ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 06-09Z TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS
THE REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
STRATUS/FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR EACH MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...32
NEAR TERM...32
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 210009 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM SUNDAY...

A WARM FRONT CONTINUED TO BACK INLAND THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PIEDMONT OF NC THIS EVENING.
THIS IS THE CURRENT FOCI FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE CONTINUED TO BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AND UP AND
OVER THE BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS HAVING INCREASED INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S WELL INTO THE SE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. THE MID/UPPER
SUPPORT IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT STILL PRESENT WITH THE STILL SIGNIFICANT
MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST. WE
WILL RAISE POP TO LIKELY NEAR THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
WITH THE POP LARGELY DIURNAL. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE MOIST AIR MASS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. QPF RAISED INTO THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY FROM NEAR SOP TO RDU AS WELL. LOWS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER
TONIGHT THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS... REMAINING 70+ ALONG AND NEAR THE
BOUNDARY... WITH MID 60S N-NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SOUTH CAROLINA S/W PROJECTED TO LIFT E-NE INTO SE NC BY
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING.  THIS FEATURE
INTERACTING WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER/SUSTAIN SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE  FORECAST AREA. A LINGERING SFC RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN-NORTHWEST PIEDMONT MAY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
PLAN TO VARY POPS FROM CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH-NW TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE SE THIRD.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
S/W...FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE (LOWER
80S). IF CONVECTION ABSENT AT EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPS MAY END UP
REACHING THE MID 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS THE S/W LIFTS OFFSHORE AND ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. STILL COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS PERSIST OR RE-
GENERATE AS ADDITIONAL MINOR LIFT NEWD. POPS CAPPED AT 30-40
PERCENT FOR NOW. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY:  CENTRAL NC WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A CLOSED UPR LOW
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE RIDGE OFF THE SE COAST...WITH A WEAK
SHEAR AXIS ELONGATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MEANWHILE...INVERTED
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF PWAT (AOA 2 INCHES) ACROSS OUR CWA...BUT
FORECAST CAPE STILL AOB 1000 J/KG AND VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW. AS
SUCH...LOOK FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING LOCALIZED SLOW-MOVING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL GIVEN
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT NEAR-NORMAL
HIGHS AROUND 90 IF SOME SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 70.

WEDNESDAY: WE`LL SEE A CHANGE TO A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN WITH
THE PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH SETTING UP AS MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
MOVING ACROS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAPE INCREASING TO 1500 J/KG NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TRIANGLE...BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 20KT.
THUS...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND/OR SOME HAIL...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH PWAT STILL AROUND
2 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO OUR CWA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND STALL ACROSS OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY. AS SUCH...POPS WILL TREND FROM
HIGHEST NORTHWEST TO LOWEST SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...THEN FLIPPING TO
HIGHEST SOUTH/EAST TO LOWEST NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
STILL ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S)
GIVEN THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...THEN COOLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT ACROSS OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA.

NEXT WEEKEND:  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAKENED OR DISSIPATED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DURING THIS TIME WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND TEMPS NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS AND
NEAR 70 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM SUNDAY...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTH
TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC...LIKELY BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (KRDU,
KRWI, KGSO, KINT) OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...LOW CLOUDS/FOG (IFR TO LIFR) ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 06-09Z TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS
THE REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
STRATUS/FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR EACH MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...32
NEAR TERM...32
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 210009 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM SUNDAY...

A WARM FRONT CONTINUED TO BACK INLAND THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PIEDMONT OF NC THIS EVENING.
THIS IS THE CURRENT FOCI FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE CONTINUED TO BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AND UP AND
OVER THE BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS HAVING INCREASED INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S WELL INTO THE SE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. THE MID/UPPER
SUPPORT IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT STILL PRESENT WITH THE STILL SIGNIFICANT
MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST. WE
WILL RAISE POP TO LIKELY NEAR THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
WITH THE POP LARGELY DIURNAL. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE MOIST AIR MASS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. QPF RAISED INTO THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY FROM NEAR SOP TO RDU AS WELL. LOWS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER
TONIGHT THAN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS... REMAINING 70+ ALONG AND NEAR THE
BOUNDARY... WITH MID 60S N-NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SOUTH CAROLINA S/W PROJECTED TO LIFT E-NE INTO SE NC BY
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING.  THIS FEATURE
INTERACTING WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER/SUSTAIN SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE  FORECAST AREA. A LINGERING SFC RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN-NORTHWEST PIEDMONT MAY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
PLAN TO VARY POPS FROM CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH-NW TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE SE THIRD.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
S/W...FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE (LOWER
80S). IF CONVECTION ABSENT AT EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPS MAY END UP
REACHING THE MID 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS THE S/W LIFTS OFFSHORE AND ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. STILL COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS PERSIST OR RE-
GENERATE AS ADDITIONAL MINOR LIFT NEWD. POPS CAPPED AT 30-40
PERCENT FOR NOW. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY:  CENTRAL NC WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A CLOSED UPR LOW
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE RIDGE OFF THE SE COAST...WITH A WEAK
SHEAR AXIS ELONGATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MEANWHILE...INVERTED
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF PWAT (AOA 2 INCHES) ACROSS OUR CWA...BUT
FORECAST CAPE STILL AOB 1000 J/KG AND VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW. AS
SUCH...LOOK FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING LOCALIZED SLOW-MOVING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL GIVEN
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT NEAR-NORMAL
HIGHS AROUND 90 IF SOME SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 70.

WEDNESDAY: WE`LL SEE A CHANGE TO A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN WITH
THE PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH SETTING UP AS MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
MOVING ACROS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAPE INCREASING TO 1500 J/KG NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TRIANGLE...BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 20KT.
THUS...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND/OR SOME HAIL...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH PWAT STILL AROUND
2 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO OUR CWA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND STALL ACROSS OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY. AS SUCH...POPS WILL TREND FROM
HIGHEST NORTHWEST TO LOWEST SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...THEN FLIPPING TO
HIGHEST SOUTH/EAST TO LOWEST NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
STILL ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S)
GIVEN THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...THEN COOLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT ACROSS OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA.

NEXT WEEKEND:  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAKENED OR DISSIPATED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DURING THIS TIME WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND TEMPS NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS AND
NEAR 70 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM SUNDAY...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTH
TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC...LIKELY BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (KRDU,
KRWI, KGSO, KINT) OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...LOW CLOUDS/FOG (IFR TO LIFR) ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 06-09Z TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS
THE REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
STRATUS/FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR EACH MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...32
NEAR TERM...32
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 202351
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
751 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
COUPLED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...

TONIGHT... A MODERATELY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE WITH PRECIP WATER
VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 INCHES IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TO AROUND 1.8
INCHES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. A MID-UPPER LEVEL L/W TROUGH WAS
POSITIONED OVER THE TN VALLEY-DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SERIES OF S/WS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR THE GULF COAST
THEN LIFTING NEWD ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK SHEAR AXIS
ALSO STRETCHES ACROSS SE VA-EASTERN NC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
A WELL-DEFINED VORT MAX CROSSING SE AL AT 18Z. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM FAIRLY CONSISTENT...LIFTING THE SYSTEM
NEWD TO THE VICINITY OF GSP/CAE BY 06Z.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING VORT MAX WILL AID TO DIMINISH SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER. THE
ADDED INSOLATION WILL AID TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...LEADING TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE LINGERING MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. SEVERE
STORM PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST AT THIS TIME SO NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE AIR
MASS HAS BECOME ALMOST TROPICAL-LIKE AND STEERING FLOW IS WEAK. BULK
OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. AS THE S/W OVER SE
AL GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NO LOWER THAN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SOUTH CAROLINA S/W PROJECTED TO LIFT E-NE INTO SE NC BY
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING.  THIS FEATURE
INTERACTING WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER/SUSTAIN SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE  FORECAST AREA. A LINGERING SFC RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN-NORTHWEST PIEDMONT MAY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
PLAN TO VARY POPS FROM CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH-NW TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE SE THIRD.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
S/W...FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE (LOWER
80S). IF CONVECTION ABSENT AT EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPS MAY END UP
REACHING THE MID 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS THE S/W LIFTS OFFSHORE AND ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. STILL COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS PERSIST OR RE-
GENERATE AS ADDITIONAL MINOR LIFT NEWD. POPS CAPPED AT 30-40
PERCENT FOR NOW. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY:  CENTRAL NC WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A CLOSED UPR LOW
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE RIDGE OFF THE SE COAST...WITH A WEAK
SHEAR AXIS ELONGATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MEANWHILE...INVERTED
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF PWAT (AOA 2 INCHES) ACROSS OUR CWA...BUT
FORECAST CAPE STILL AOB 1000 J/KG AND VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW. AS
SUCH...LOOK FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING LOCALIZED SLOW-MOVING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL GIVEN
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT NEAR-NORMAL
HIGHS AROUND 90 IF SOME SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 70.

WEDNESDAY: WE`LL SEE A CHANGE TO A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN WITH
THE PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH SETTING UP AS MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
MOVING ACROS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAPE INCREASING TO 1500 J/KG NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TRIANGLE...BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 20KT.
THUS...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND/OR SOME HAIL...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH PWAT STILL AROUND
2 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO OUR CWA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND STALL ACROSS OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY. AS SUCH...POPS WILL TREND FROM
HIGHEST NORTHWEST TO LOWEST SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...THEN FLIPPING TO
HIGHEST SOUTH/EAST TO LOWEST NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
STILL ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S)
GIVEN THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...THEN COOLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT ACROSS OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA.

NEXT WEEKEND:  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAKENED OR DISSIPATED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DURING THIS TIME WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND TEMPS NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS AND
NEAR 70 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM SUNDAY...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTH
TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC...LIKELY BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (KRDU,
KRWI, KGSO, KINT) OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...LOW CLOUDS/FOG (IFR TO LIFR) ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 06-09Z TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS
THE REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
STRATUS/FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR EACH MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 202351
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
751 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
COUPLED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...

TONIGHT... A MODERATELY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE WITH PRECIP WATER
VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 INCHES IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TO AROUND 1.8
INCHES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. A MID-UPPER LEVEL L/W TROUGH WAS
POSITIONED OVER THE TN VALLEY-DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SERIES OF S/WS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR THE GULF COAST
THEN LIFTING NEWD ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK SHEAR AXIS
ALSO STRETCHES ACROSS SE VA-EASTERN NC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
A WELL-DEFINED VORT MAX CROSSING SE AL AT 18Z. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM FAIRLY CONSISTENT...LIFTING THE SYSTEM
NEWD TO THE VICINITY OF GSP/CAE BY 06Z.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING VORT MAX WILL AID TO DIMINISH SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER. THE
ADDED INSOLATION WILL AID TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...LEADING TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE LINGERING MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. SEVERE
STORM PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST AT THIS TIME SO NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE AIR
MASS HAS BECOME ALMOST TROPICAL-LIKE AND STEERING FLOW IS WEAK. BULK
OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. AS THE S/W OVER SE
AL GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NO LOWER THAN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SOUTH CAROLINA S/W PROJECTED TO LIFT E-NE INTO SE NC BY
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING.  THIS FEATURE
INTERACTING WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER/SUSTAIN SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE  FORECAST AREA. A LINGERING SFC RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN-NORTHWEST PIEDMONT MAY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
PLAN TO VARY POPS FROM CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH-NW TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE SE THIRD.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
S/W...FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE (LOWER
80S). IF CONVECTION ABSENT AT EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPS MAY END UP
REACHING THE MID 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS THE S/W LIFTS OFFSHORE AND ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. STILL COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS PERSIST OR RE-
GENERATE AS ADDITIONAL MINOR LIFT NEWD. POPS CAPPED AT 30-40
PERCENT FOR NOW. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY:  CENTRAL NC WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A CLOSED UPR LOW
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE RIDGE OFF THE SE COAST...WITH A WEAK
SHEAR AXIS ELONGATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MEANWHILE...INVERTED
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF PWAT (AOA 2 INCHES) ACROSS OUR CWA...BUT
FORECAST CAPE STILL AOB 1000 J/KG AND VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW. AS
SUCH...LOOK FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING LOCALIZED SLOW-MOVING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL GIVEN
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT NEAR-NORMAL
HIGHS AROUND 90 IF SOME SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 70.

WEDNESDAY: WE`LL SEE A CHANGE TO A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN WITH
THE PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH SETTING UP AS MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
MOVING ACROS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAPE INCREASING TO 1500 J/KG NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TRIANGLE...BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 20KT.
THUS...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND/OR SOME HAIL...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH PWAT STILL AROUND
2 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO OUR CWA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND STALL ACROSS OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY. AS SUCH...POPS WILL TREND FROM
HIGHEST NORTHWEST TO LOWEST SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...THEN FLIPPING TO
HIGHEST SOUTH/EAST TO LOWEST NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
STILL ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S)
GIVEN THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...THEN COOLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT ACROSS OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA.

NEXT WEEKEND:  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAKENED OR DISSIPATED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DURING THIS TIME WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND TEMPS NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS AND
NEAR 70 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM SUNDAY...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTH
TO NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC...LIKELY BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (KRDU,
KRWI, KGSO, KINT) OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO...LOW CLOUDS/FOG (IFR TO LIFR) ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 06-09Z TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...THE CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS
THE REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
STRATUS/FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR EACH MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 201932
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
COUPLED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...

TONIGHT... A MODERATELY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE WITH PRECIP WATER
VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 INCHES IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TO AROUND 1.8
INCHES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. A MID-UPPER LEVEL L/W TROUGH WAS
POSITIONED OVER THE TN VALLEY-DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SERIES OF S/WS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR THE GULF COAST
THEN LIFTING NEWD ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS. A WEAK SHEAR AXIS
ALSO STRETCHES ACROSS SE VA-EASTERN NC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
A WELL-DEFINED VORT MAX CROSSING SE AL AT 18Z. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM FAIRLY CONSISTENT...LIFTING THE SYSTEM
NEWD TO THE VICINITY OF GSP/CAE BY 06Z.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING VORT MAX WILL AID TO DIMINISH SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER. THE
ADDED INSOLATION WILL AID TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...LEADING TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF
THE LINGERING MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. SEVERE
STORM PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST AT THIS TIME SO NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE AIR
MASS HAS BECOME ALMOST TROPICAL-LIKE AND STEERING FLOW IS WEAK. BULK
OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. AS THE S/W OVER SE
AL GETS CLOSER TO OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NO LOWER THAN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SOUTH CAROLINA S/W PROJECTED TO LIFT E-NE INTO SE NC BY
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING.  THIS FEATURE
INTERACTING WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER/SUSTAIN SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT BULK OF PRECIP TO OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE  FORECAST AREA. A LINGERING SFC RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN-NORTHWEST PIEDMONT MAY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
PLAN TO VARY POPS FROM CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH-NW TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE SE THIRD.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
S/W...FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE (LOWER
80S). IF CONVECTION ABSENT AT EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPS MAY END UP
REACHING THE MID 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS THE S/W LIFTS OFFSHORE AND ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. STILL COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS PERSIST OR RE-
GENERATE AS ADDITIONAL MINOR LIFT NEWD. POPS CAPPED AT 30-40
PERCENT FOR NOW. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY:  CENTRAL NC WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A CLOSED UPR LOW
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE RIDGE OFF THE SE COAST...WITH A WEAK
SHEAR AXIS ELONGATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MEANWHILE...INVERTED
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF PWAT (AOA 2 INCHES) ACROSS OUR CWA...BUT
FORECAST CAPE STILL AOB 1000 J/KG AND VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW. AS
SUCH...LOOK FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING LOCALIZED SLOW-MOVING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL GIVEN
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT NEAR-NORMAL
HIGHS AROUND 90 IF SOME SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 70.

WEDNESDAY: WE`LL SEE A CHANGE TO A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN WITH
THE PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH SETTING UP AS MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
MOVING ACROS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAPE INCREASING TO 1500 J/KG NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TRIANGLE...BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 20KT.
THUS...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND/OR SOME HAIL...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH PWAT STILL AROUND
2 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO OUR CWA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND STALL ACROSS OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY. AS SUCH...POPS WILL TREND FROM
HIGHEST NORTHWEST TO LOWEST SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...THEN FLIPPING TO
HIGHEST SOUTH/EAST TO LOWEST NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
STILL ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S)
GIVEN THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...THEN COOLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT ACROSS OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA.

NEXT WEEKEND:  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAKENED OR DISSIPATED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DURING THIS TIME WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND TEMPS NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS AND
NEAR 70 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM SUNDAY...

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
IN VICINITY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME...TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO THE BE THE MOST CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
ALSO ENHANCE THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY.

THE THREAT FOR EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL ALSO BECOME
MORE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 08Z-14Z.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 201849
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
COUPLED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM SUNDAY...

A MINOR S/W WHICH CAN BE TRACED BACK ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE
MISSOURI OZARKS YESTERDAY MORNING WAS INTERACTING WITH A MODERATELY
MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS.
THESE SHOWERS WERE EXITING THE EASTERN PIEDMONT LATE THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD EXIT THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W WILL
LIKELY HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL NC. AFTER 20-21Z...MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE A DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY MAY EXIST...AND IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS WEAK BUT
STEADY WLY FLOW WILL STEER ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EASTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT.

AFTERNOON TEMPS A CHALLENGE. MORNING SHOWERS KEEPING TEMPS DOWN IN
THE TRIANGLE AREA WHILE LOW OVERCAST/LIMITED INSOLATION IS RESULTING
IN LATE MORNING TEMPS NEAR 70/LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
PIEDMONT. OVER THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...BRIEF
PEEKS OF SUN HAVE PUSHED TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MAX TEMPS OVER SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED A FEW
DEGREES WHILE MAX TEMP FORECAST ALONG OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY APPEARS TO BE ON TARGET. -WSS

THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TONIGHT
...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF
ALL DEPICT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS SC
LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD ADJUST THE MASS FIELDS AND ALTER THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTION IN NC. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
WITH POPS IN THE MID 30S AND MID 20S TO THE NORTH. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70. -BLAES

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM SUNDAY...

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE CENTRAL NC IN A FAVORED REGION FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH AND MOVE
NEAR CENTRAL NC. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
FURTHER ON MONDAY AND RANGE FROM 1.7 TO 2.1 INCHES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
RATHER MEAGER LAPSE RATES. CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW MOVING AND POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SOME VERY HEAVY RAIN. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN AS THE MOST
FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH
POPS AROUND 45 PERCENT AND DECREASE THEM TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS ON
MONDAY SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 83 AND 86 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S. -BLAES
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY:  CENTRAL NC WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A CLOSED UPR LOW
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE RIDGE OFF THE SE COAST...WITH A WEAK
SHEAR AXIS ELONGATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MEANWHILE...INVERTED
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF PWAT (AOA 2 INCHES) ACROSS OUR CWA...BUT
FORECAST CAPE STILL AOB 1000 J/KG AND VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW. AS
SUCH...LOOK FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING LOCALIZED SLOW-MOVING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL GIVEN
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT NEAR-NORMAL
HIGHS AROUND 90 IF SOME SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 70.

WEDNESDAY: WE`LL SEE A CHANGE TO A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN WITH
THE PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH SETTING UP AS MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
MOVING ACROS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAPE INCREASING TO 1500 J/KG NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TRIANGLE...BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 20KT.
THUS...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND/OR SOME HAIL...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH PWAT STILL AROUND
2 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO OUR CWA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND STALL ACROSS OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY. AS SUCH...POPS WILL TREND FROM
HIGHEST NORTHWEST TO LOWEST SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...THEN FLIPPING TO
HIGHEST SOUTH/EAST TO LOWEST NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
STILL ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S)
GIVEN THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...THEN COOLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT ACROSS OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA.

NEXT WEEKEND:  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAKENED OR DISSIPATED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DURING THIS TIME WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND TEMPS NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS AND
NEAR 70 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM SUNDAY...

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
IN VICINITY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME...TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO THE BE THE MOST CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
ALSO ENHANCE THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY.

THE THREAT FOR EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL ALSO BECOME
MORE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 08Z-14Z.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 201849
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
COUPLED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM SUNDAY...

A MINOR S/W WHICH CAN BE TRACED BACK ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE
MISSOURI OZARKS YESTERDAY MORNING WAS INTERACTING WITH A MODERATELY
MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS.
THESE SHOWERS WERE EXITING THE EASTERN PIEDMONT LATE THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD EXIT THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W WILL
LIKELY HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL NC. AFTER 20-21Z...MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE A DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY MAY EXIST...AND IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS WEAK BUT
STEADY WLY FLOW WILL STEER ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EASTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT.

AFTERNOON TEMPS A CHALLENGE. MORNING SHOWERS KEEPING TEMPS DOWN IN
THE TRIANGLE AREA WHILE LOW OVERCAST/LIMITED INSOLATION IS RESULTING
IN LATE MORNING TEMPS NEAR 70/LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
PIEDMONT. OVER THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...BRIEF
PEEKS OF SUN HAVE PUSHED TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MAX TEMPS OVER SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED A FEW
DEGREES WHILE MAX TEMP FORECAST ALONG OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY APPEARS TO BE ON TARGET. -WSS

THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TONIGHT
...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF
ALL DEPICT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS SC
LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD ADJUST THE MASS FIELDS AND ALTER THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTION IN NC. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
WITH POPS IN THE MID 30S AND MID 20S TO THE NORTH. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70. -BLAES

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM SUNDAY...

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE CENTRAL NC IN A FAVORED REGION FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH AND MOVE
NEAR CENTRAL NC. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
FURTHER ON MONDAY AND RANGE FROM 1.7 TO 2.1 INCHES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
RATHER MEAGER LAPSE RATES. CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW MOVING AND POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SOME VERY HEAVY RAIN. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN AS THE MOST
FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH
POPS AROUND 45 PERCENT AND DECREASE THEM TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS ON
MONDAY SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 83 AND 86 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S. -BLAES
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY:  CENTRAL NC WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A CLOSED UPR LOW
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE RIDGE OFF THE SE COAST...WITH A WEAK
SHEAR AXIS ELONGATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. MEANWHILE...INVERTED
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF PWAT (AOA 2 INCHES) ACROSS OUR CWA...BUT
FORECAST CAPE STILL AOB 1000 J/KG AND VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW. AS
SUCH...LOOK FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING LOCALIZED SLOW-MOVING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL GIVEN
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT NEAR-NORMAL
HIGHS AROUND 90 IF SOME SUNSHINE CAN BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 70.

WEDNESDAY: WE`LL SEE A CHANGE TO A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN WITH
THE PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH SETTING UP AS MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE
MOVING ACROS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOOK FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAPE INCREASING TO 1500 J/KG NEAR AND EAST OF THE
TRIANGLE...BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 20KT.
THUS...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND/OR SOME HAIL...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH PWAT STILL AROUND
2 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO OUR CWA LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND STALL ACROSS OUR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY. AS SUCH...POPS WILL TREND FROM
HIGHEST NORTHWEST TO LOWEST SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...THEN FLIPPING TO
HIGHEST SOUTH/EAST TO LOWEST NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
STILL ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S)
GIVEN THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...THEN COOLING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT ACROSS OR JUST EAST OF OUR AREA.

NEXT WEEKEND:  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAKENED OR DISSIPATED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN DURING THIS TIME WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND TEMPS NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS AND
NEAR 70 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM SUNDAY...

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
IN VICINITY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME...TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO THE BE THE MOST CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
ALSO ENHANCE THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY.

THE THREAT FOR EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL ALSO BECOME
MORE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 08Z-14Z.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 201713
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
115 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
COUPLED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM SUNDAY...

A MINOR S/W WHICH CAN BE TRACED BACK ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE
MISSOURI OZARKS YESTERDAY MORNING WAS INTERACTING WITH A MODERATELY
MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS.
THESE SHOWERS WERE EXITING THE EASTERN PIEDMONT LATE THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD EXIT THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W WILL
LIKELY HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL NC. AFTER 20-21Z...MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE A DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY MAY EXIST...AND IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS WEAK BUT
STEADY WLY FLOW WILL STEER ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EASTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT.

AFTERNOON TEMPS A CHALLENGE. MORNING SHOWERS KEEPING TEMPS DOWN IN
THE TRIANGLE AREA WHILE LOW OVERCAST/LIMITED INSOLATION IS RESULTING
IN LATE MORNING TEMPS NEAR 70/LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
PIEDMONT. OVER THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...BRIEF
PEEKS OF SUN HAVE PUSHED TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MAX TEMPS OVER SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED A FEW
DEGREES WHILE MAX TEMP FORECAST ALONG OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY APPEARS TO BE ON TARGET. -WSS

THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TONIGHT
...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF
ALL DEPICT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS SC
LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD ADJUST THE MASS FIELDS AND ALTER THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTION IN NC. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
WITH POPS IN THE MID 30S AND MID 20S TO THE NORTH. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70. -BLAES

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM SUNDAY...

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE CENTRAL NC IN A FAVORED REGION FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH AND MOVE
NEAR CENTRAL NC. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
FURTHER ON MONDAY AND RANGE FROM 1.7 TO 2.1 INCHES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
RATHER MEAGER LAPSE RATES. CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW MOVING AND POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SOME VERY HEAVY RAIN. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN AS THE MOST
FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH
POPS AROUND 45 PERCENT AND DECREASE THEM TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS ON
MONDAY SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 83 AND 86 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S. -BLAES
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH OR WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS AND THE BERMUDA HIGH
BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL.  THIS WILL CAUSE MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TUESDAY AND THEN SOUTHERLY BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES. A WEAK SHEAR AXIS
LINGERING OVER THE REGION MAY BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
AMIDST WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY.  WEAK LAPSE RATES
AND MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...BUT WEAK
STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING
ISSUES WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS.  HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT...MAYBE MORE SO OVER THE WESTERN CWA.  EXPECT
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...SO STRATUS MAY NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT/MCS MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST.  WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY...WITH MODELS NOW SHOWING THE FRONT
STALLING OVER THE CAROLINAS.  EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WHERE THE
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
GIVEN THAT MODELS HAVE AT LEAST CONVERGED ON THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ON SATURDAY.  HIGHS WILL PEAK ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHEN DRY ADIABATIC MIXING GIVES UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S.  ONCE THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY
DROP BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM SUNDAY...

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
IN VICINITY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME...TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO THE BE THE MOST CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
ALSO ENHANCE THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY.

THE THREAT FOR EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL ALSO BECOME
MORE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 08Z-14Z.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 201713
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
115 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
COUPLED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM SUNDAY...

A MINOR S/W WHICH CAN BE TRACED BACK ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE
MISSOURI OZARKS YESTERDAY MORNING WAS INTERACTING WITH A MODERATELY
MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS.
THESE SHOWERS WERE EXITING THE EASTERN PIEDMONT LATE THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD EXIT THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W WILL
LIKELY HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL NC. AFTER 20-21Z...MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE A DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY MAY EXIST...AND IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS WEAK BUT
STEADY WLY FLOW WILL STEER ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EASTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT.

AFTERNOON TEMPS A CHALLENGE. MORNING SHOWERS KEEPING TEMPS DOWN IN
THE TRIANGLE AREA WHILE LOW OVERCAST/LIMITED INSOLATION IS RESULTING
IN LATE MORNING TEMPS NEAR 70/LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
PIEDMONT. OVER THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...BRIEF
PEEKS OF SUN HAVE PUSHED TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MAX TEMPS OVER SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED A FEW
DEGREES WHILE MAX TEMP FORECAST ALONG OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY APPEARS TO BE ON TARGET. -WSS

THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TONIGHT
...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF
ALL DEPICT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS SC
LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD ADJUST THE MASS FIELDS AND ALTER THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTION IN NC. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
WITH POPS IN THE MID 30S AND MID 20S TO THE NORTH. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70. -BLAES

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM SUNDAY...

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE CENTRAL NC IN A FAVORED REGION FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH AND MOVE
NEAR CENTRAL NC. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
FURTHER ON MONDAY AND RANGE FROM 1.7 TO 2.1 INCHES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
RATHER MEAGER LAPSE RATES. CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW MOVING AND POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SOME VERY HEAVY RAIN. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN AS THE MOST
FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH
POPS AROUND 45 PERCENT AND DECREASE THEM TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS ON
MONDAY SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 83 AND 86 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S. -BLAES
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH OR WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS AND THE BERMUDA HIGH
BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL.  THIS WILL CAUSE MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TUESDAY AND THEN SOUTHERLY BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES. A WEAK SHEAR AXIS
LINGERING OVER THE REGION MAY BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
AMIDST WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY.  WEAK LAPSE RATES
AND MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...BUT WEAK
STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING
ISSUES WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS.  HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT...MAYBE MORE SO OVER THE WESTERN CWA.  EXPECT
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...SO STRATUS MAY NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT/MCS MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST.  WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY...WITH MODELS NOW SHOWING THE FRONT
STALLING OVER THE CAROLINAS.  EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WHERE THE
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
GIVEN THAT MODELS HAVE AT LEAST CONVERGED ON THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ON SATURDAY.  HIGHS WILL PEAK ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHEN DRY ADIABATIC MIXING GIVES UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S.  ONCE THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY
DROP BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM SUNDAY...

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
IN VICINITY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. AT
THIS TIME...TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO THE BE THE MOST CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
ALSO ENHANCE THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY.

THE THREAT FOR EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL ALSO BECOME
MORE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 08Z-14Z.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 201441
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1040 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
COUPLED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM SUNDAY...

A MINOR S/W WHICH CAN BE TRACED BACK ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE
MISSOURI OZARKS YESTERDAY MORNING WAS INTERACTING WITH A MODERATELY
MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS.
THESE SHOWERS WERE EXITING THE EASTERN PIEDMONT LATE THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD EXIT THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W WILL
LIKELY HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL NC. AFTER 20-21Z...MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE A DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY MAY EXIST...AND IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS WEAK BUT
STEADY WLY FLOW WILL STEER ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EASTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT.

AFTERNOON TEMPS A CHALLENGE. MORNING SHOWERS KEEPING TEMPS DOWN IN
THE TRIANGLE AREA WHILE LOW OVERCAST/LIMITED INSOLATION IS RESULTING
IN LATE MORNING TEMPS NEAR 70/LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
PIEDMONT. OVER THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...BRIEF
PEEKS OF SUN HAVE PUSHED TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MAX TEMPS OVER SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED A FEW
DEGREES WHILE MAX TEMP FORECAST ALONG OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY APPEARS TO BE ON TARGET. -WSS

THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TONIGHT
...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF
ALL DEPICT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS SC
LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD ADJUST THE MASS FIELDS AND ALTER THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTION IN NC. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
WITH POPS IN THE MID 30S AND MID 20S TO THE NORTH. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70. -BLAES

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM SUNDAY...

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE CENTRAL NC IN A FAVORED REGION FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH AND MOVE
NEAR CENTRAL NC. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
FURTHER ON MONDAY AND RANGE FROM 1.7 TO 2.1 INCHES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
RATHER MEAGER LAPSE RATES. CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW MOVING AND POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SOME VERY HEAVY RAIN. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN AS THE MOST
FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH
POPS AROUND 45 PERCENT AND DECREASE THEM TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS ON
MONDAY SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 83 AND 86 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S. -BLAES
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH OR WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS AND THE BERMUDA HIGH
BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL.  THIS WILL CAUSE MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TUESDAY AND THEN SOUTHERLY BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES. A WEAK SHEAR AXIS
LINGERING OVER THE REGION MAY BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
AMIDST WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY.  WEAK LAPSE RATES
AND MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...BUT WEAK
STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING
ISSUES WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS.  HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT...MAYBE MORE SO OVER THE WESTERN CWA.  EXPECT
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...SO STRATUS MAY NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT/MCS MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST.  WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY...WITH MODELS NOW SHOWING THE FRONT
STALLING OVER THE CAROLINAS.  EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WHERE THE
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
GIVEN THAT MODELS HAVE AT LEAST CONVERGED ON THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ON SATURDAY.  HIGHS WILL PEAK ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHEN DRY ADIABATIC MIXING GIVES UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S.  ONCE THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY
DROP BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SUNDAY...

AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC ARE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY WITH CEILINGS OF 3-6KFT ALTHOUGH CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR RANGE IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. AFTER
THESE SHOWERS EXIT...OTHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
COULD RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
MAINLY ASSOCIATED REDUCED VISIBILITIES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS MOST FREQUENTLY FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 7KTS OR LESS.

LOOKING BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD...A MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH A
LINGERING UPPER TROUGH AND THEN AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN A GRADUALLY INCREASING THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD WITH REDUCED CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS IN MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. -BLAES
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...BLAES




000
FXUS62 KRAH 201441
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1040 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
COUPLED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM SUNDAY...

A MINOR S/W WHICH CAN BE TRACED BACK ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE
MISSOURI OZARKS YESTERDAY MORNING WAS INTERACTING WITH A MODERATELY
MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS.
THESE SHOWERS WERE EXITING THE EASTERN PIEDMONT LATE THIS MORNING
AND SHOULD EXIT THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W WILL
LIKELY HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL NC. AFTER 20-21Z...MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE A DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY MAY EXIST...AND IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AS WEAK BUT
STEADY WLY FLOW WILL STEER ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EASTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT.

AFTERNOON TEMPS A CHALLENGE. MORNING SHOWERS KEEPING TEMPS DOWN IN
THE TRIANGLE AREA WHILE LOW OVERCAST/LIMITED INSOLATION IS RESULTING
IN LATE MORNING TEMPS NEAR 70/LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
PIEDMONT. OVER THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...BRIEF
PEEKS OF SUN HAVE PUSHED TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MAX TEMPS OVER SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED A FEW
DEGREES WHILE MAX TEMP FORECAST ALONG OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY APPEARS TO BE ON TARGET. -WSS

THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TONIGHT
...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF
ALL DEPICT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS SC
LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD ADJUST THE MASS FIELDS AND ALTER THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTION IN NC. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
WITH POPS IN THE MID 30S AND MID 20S TO THE NORTH. LOWS SHOULD RANGE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70. -BLAES

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM SUNDAY...

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE CENTRAL NC IN A FAVORED REGION FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH AND MOVE
NEAR CENTRAL NC. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
FURTHER ON MONDAY AND RANGE FROM 1.7 TO 2.1 INCHES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
RATHER MEAGER LAPSE RATES. CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW MOVING AND POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SOME VERY HEAVY RAIN. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN AS THE MOST
FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH
POPS AROUND 45 PERCENT AND DECREASE THEM TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS ON
MONDAY SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 83 AND 86 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S. -BLAES
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH OR WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS AND THE BERMUDA HIGH
BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL.  THIS WILL CAUSE MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TUESDAY AND THEN SOUTHERLY BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES. A WEAK SHEAR AXIS
LINGERING OVER THE REGION MAY BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
AMIDST WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY.  WEAK LAPSE RATES
AND MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...BUT WEAK
STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING
ISSUES WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS.  HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT...MAYBE MORE SO OVER THE WESTERN CWA.  EXPECT
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...SO STRATUS MAY NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT/MCS MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST.  WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY...WITH MODELS NOW SHOWING THE FRONT
STALLING OVER THE CAROLINAS.  EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WHERE THE
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
GIVEN THAT MODELS HAVE AT LEAST CONVERGED ON THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ON SATURDAY.  HIGHS WILL PEAK ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHEN DRY ADIABATIC MIXING GIVES UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S.  ONCE THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY
DROP BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SUNDAY...

AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC ARE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY WITH CEILINGS OF 3-6KFT ALTHOUGH CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR RANGE IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. AFTER
THESE SHOWERS EXIT...OTHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
COULD RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
MAINLY ASSOCIATED REDUCED VISIBILITIES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS MOST FREQUENTLY FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 7KTS OR LESS.

LOOKING BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD...A MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH A
LINGERING UPPER TROUGH AND THEN AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN A GRADUALLY INCREASING THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD WITH REDUCED CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS IN MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. -BLAES
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...BLAES





000
FXUS62 KRAH 201120
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
720 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. A LINGERING
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST AND EXTEDNING INTO GEORGIA
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM SUNDAY...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND EXTENDING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM JUST
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WESTWARD INTO GA AND AL. THE AIR MASS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC HAS MOISTENED NOTABLY FROM LAST NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWERS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SW NC...UPSTATE SC AND NE GA. THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE INITIATED
BY AN ELONGATED SHOWER WAVE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
PROGS THE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC BEFORE
NOON WITH SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION. OTHER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
PEAK HEATING AND PERHAPS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. DIFFICULT TO BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
POPS BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT AN ARC OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FROM THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFICULT TODAY AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. MET GUIDANCE WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR THIS CYCLE
BUT THE MAV GENERALLY SUGGESTS MAXES IN THE 84-88 WHICH IS WARMER
THAN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST. WILL UNDERCUT THE MAV AND
GO WITH HIGHS IN THE 81 TO 85 RANGE. TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COOLER
GUIDANCE. MAX TEMPS LOWER-MID 80S.

THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE GFS...NAM AND
ECMWF ALL DEPICT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS
SC LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD ADJUST THE MASS FIELDS AND ALTER THE
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IN NC. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WITH POPS IN THE MID 30S AND MID 20S TO THE NORTH. LOWS
SHOULD RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70. -BLAES
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM SUNDAY...

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE CENTRAL NC IN A FAVORED REGION FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH AND MOVE
NEAR CENTRAL NC. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
FURTHER ON MONDAY AND RANGE FROM 1.7 TO 2.1 INCHES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
RATHER MEAGER LAPSE RATES. CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW MOVING AND POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SOME VERY HEAVY RAIN. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN AS THE MOST
FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH
POPS AROUND 45 PERCENT AND DECREASE THEM TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS ON
MONDAY SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 83 AND 86 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S. -BLAES
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH OR WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS AND THE BERMUDA HIGH
BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL.  THIS WILL CAUSE MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TUESDAY AND THEN SOUTHERLY BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES. A WEAK SHEAR AXIS
LINGERING OVER THE REGION MAY BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
AMIDST WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY.  WEAK LAPSE RATES
AND MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...BUT WEAK
STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING
ISSUES WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS.  HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT...MAYBE MORE SO OVER THE WESTERN CWA.  EXPECT
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...SO STRATUS MAY NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT/MCS MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST.  WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY...WITH MODELS NOW SHOWING THE FRONT
STALLING OVER THE CAROLINAS.  EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WHERE THE
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
GIVEN THAT MODELS HAVE AT LEAST CONVERGED ON THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ON SATURDAY.  HIGHS WILL PEAK ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHEN DRY ADIABATIC MIXING GIVES UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S.  ONCE THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY
DROP BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SUNDAY...

AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC ARE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY WITH CEILINGS OF 3-6KFT ALTHOUGH CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR RANGE IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. AFTER
THESE SHOWERS EXIT...OTHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
COULD RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
MAINLY ASSOCIATED REDUCED VISIBILITIES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS MOST FREQUENTLY FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 7KTS OR LESS.

LOOKING BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD...A MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH A
LINGERING UPPER TROUGH AND THEN AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN A GRADUALLY INCREASING THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD WITH REDUCED CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS IN MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. -BLAES
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...BLAES




000
FXUS62 KRAH 201120
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
720 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY. A LINGERING
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST AND EXTEDNING INTO GEORGIA
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM SUNDAY...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND EXTENDING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM JUST
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WESTWARD INTO GA AND AL. THE AIR MASS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC HAS MOISTENED NOTABLY FROM LAST NIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWERS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SW NC...UPSTATE SC AND NE GA. THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE INITIATED
BY AN ELONGATED SHOWER WAVE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
PROGS THE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC BEFORE
NOON WITH SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION. OTHER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
PEAK HEATING AND PERHAPS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. DIFFICULT TO BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
POPS BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT AN ARC OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FROM THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFICULT TODAY AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. MET GUIDANCE WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR THIS CYCLE
BUT THE MAV GENERALLY SUGGESTS MAXES IN THE 84-88 WHICH IS WARMER
THAN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST. WILL UNDERCUT THE MAV AND
GO WITH HIGHS IN THE 81 TO 85 RANGE. TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COOLER
GUIDANCE. MAX TEMPS LOWER-MID 80S.

THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE GFS...NAM AND
ECMWF ALL DEPICT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS
SC LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD ADJUST THE MASS FIELDS AND ALTER THE
AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IN NC. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WITH POPS IN THE MID 30S AND MID 20S TO THE NORTH. LOWS
SHOULD RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70. -BLAES
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM SUNDAY...

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE CENTRAL NC IN A FAVORED REGION FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH AND MOVE
NEAR CENTRAL NC. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
FURTHER ON MONDAY AND RANGE FROM 1.7 TO 2.1 INCHES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
RATHER MEAGER LAPSE RATES. CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW MOVING AND POTENTIALLY PRODUCE SOME VERY HEAVY RAIN. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN AS THE MOST
FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH
POPS AROUND 45 PERCENT AND DECREASE THEM TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS ON
MONDAY SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 83 AND 86 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S. -BLAES
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH OR WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS AND THE BERMUDA HIGH
BECOMES MORE INFLUENTIAL.  THIS WILL CAUSE MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TUESDAY AND THEN SOUTHERLY BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES. A WEAK SHEAR AXIS
LINGERING OVER THE REGION MAY BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
AMIDST WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY.  WEAK LAPSE RATES
AND MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...BUT WEAK
STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING
ISSUES WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS.  HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT...MAYBE MORE SO OVER THE WESTERN CWA.  EXPECT
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...SO STRATUS MAY NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT/MCS MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST.  WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY...WITH MODELS NOW SHOWING THE FRONT
STALLING OVER THE CAROLINAS.  EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL STALL IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WHERE THE
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
GIVEN THAT MODELS HAVE AT LEAST CONVERGED ON THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ON SATURDAY.  HIGHS WILL PEAK ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHEN DRY ADIABATIC MIXING GIVES UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S.  ONCE THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...HIGHS WILL LIKELY
DROP BACK TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SUNDAY...

AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC ARE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY WITH CEILINGS OF 3-6KFT ALTHOUGH CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR RANGE IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. AFTER
THESE SHOWERS EXIT...OTHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
COULD RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
MAINLY ASSOCIATED REDUCED VISIBILITIES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS MOST FREQUENTLY FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 7KTS OR LESS.

LOOKING BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD...A MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH A
LINGERING UPPER TROUGH AND THEN AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN A GRADUALLY INCREASING THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD WITH REDUCED CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS IN MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. -BLAES
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...BLAES





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