Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS62 KRAH 291133
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
733 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM FRIDAY...

7 AM UPDATE...THE NAM GUIDANCE BEST MATCHES THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA AS OF 11Z THIS MORNING...WITH LOW CEILINGS/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
AND A NORTHEAST BREEZE ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64 INDICATING THE
PROBABLE ONSET OF A HYBRID CAD WEDGE. AS A RESULT...WILL LOWER HIGH
TEMPS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ALONG/NORTH OF HWY 64. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION REMAINS BELOW. -VINCENT

OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WILL EXTEND N/NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY/TONIGHT. A WEST-EAST
ORIENTED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER
AT 06Z THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT IN VICINITY OF THE HWY
64 CORRIDOR TODAY.

BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY WITH THE PRECISE POSITION AND ORIENTATION
OF THE STALLED FRONT TODAY...IN ADDITION TO THE PRECISE ORIENTATION
OF THE LOW-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
RANGE FROM A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE AND ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12-18Z TODAY NORTH OF HWY 64 TO NO WEDGE
DEVELOPMENT AND A SOMEWHAT TYPICAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT SFC-
BASED CONVECTION. GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THE PATTERN IN PLACE
AND THAT CONVECTION COULD LARGELY DICTATE THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW-
LEVEL PATTERN...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST ROUGHLY AS-IS WITH A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF CONVECTION AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT NEAR 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM FRIDAY...

CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SAT/SAT NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST TOWARD THE COAST. THE
LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD WASH OUT
DURING THE DAY AS A LIGHT S/SE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION WITH 500-
1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE SAT AFTERNOON. GIVEN A PROTOTYPICAL SUMMERTIME
`RIDGE` PATTERN...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...IN THE LOWER 90S.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SEASONABLE MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES OF 1.50-
1.75") WOULD SUPPORT ISOLD CONVECTION ON SATURDAY...THOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEABREEZE AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING...PRIMARILY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN NC...AND IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT NO CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN CENTRAL NC. WITH THE
ABOVE IN MIND...WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION DURING
THE AFT AND EARLY EVE HOURS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SE COASTAL
PLAIN. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES EARLY TO MID WEEK.
THIS WILL EXTEND OUR CURRENT MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN ACROSS NC WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER
THE NC/SC COAST SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BE DEFLECTED TO OUR NORTH AND WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. EVEN WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH THE SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW... ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE BEST
CHANCE IS FORECAST OVER AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE INSTABILITY...
MOISTURE... AND LIFT WILL BE HIGHEST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 88-93
RANGE.

THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST WITH
TIME TO OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TUE-WED. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK
PIEDMONT TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WHICH MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EARLY TO MID
WEEK. OTHERWISE... SIMPLY WARM AND HUMID WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS 69-74. HIGHS 88-93 NW TO SANDHILLS.

FOR MID TO LATE WEEK... ANY SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND
PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY COOLING OR DRYING. HOWEVER... IT MAY ACT AS A
CONTINUED FOCUS FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WED-
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE NAM MODEL GUIDANCE BEST MATCHES THE LATEST OBS DATA...
WHICH SUGGESTS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS (INT/GSO/RDU/RWI) WILL BE
AFFECTED BY PERIODIC OR PERSISTENT IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...
WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND
ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS...A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST MAY BE
NECESSARY TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
WHERE CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY SAT AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND A
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 291133
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
733 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM FRIDAY...

7 AM UPDATE...THE NAM GUIDANCE BEST MATCHES THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA AS OF 11Z THIS MORNING...WITH LOW CEILINGS/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
AND A NORTHEAST BREEZE ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64 INDICATING THE
PROBABLE ONSET OF A HYBRID CAD WEDGE. AS A RESULT...WILL LOWER HIGH
TEMPS AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ALONG/NORTH OF HWY 64. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION REMAINS BELOW. -VINCENT

OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WILL EXTEND N/NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY/TONIGHT. A WEST-EAST
ORIENTED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER
AT 06Z THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT IN VICINITY OF THE HWY
64 CORRIDOR TODAY.

BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY WITH THE PRECISE POSITION AND ORIENTATION
OF THE STALLED FRONT TODAY...IN ADDITION TO THE PRECISE ORIENTATION
OF THE LOW-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
RANGE FROM A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE AND ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12-18Z TODAY NORTH OF HWY 64 TO NO WEDGE
DEVELOPMENT AND A SOMEWHAT TYPICAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT SFC-
BASED CONVECTION. GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THE PATTERN IN PLACE
AND THAT CONVECTION COULD LARGELY DICTATE THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW-
LEVEL PATTERN...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST ROUGHLY AS-IS WITH A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF CONVECTION AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT NEAR 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM FRIDAY...

CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SAT/SAT NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST TOWARD THE COAST. THE
LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD WASH OUT
DURING THE DAY AS A LIGHT S/SE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION WITH 500-
1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE SAT AFTERNOON. GIVEN A PROTOTYPICAL SUMMERTIME
`RIDGE` PATTERN...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...IN THE LOWER 90S.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SEASONABLE MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES OF 1.50-
1.75") WOULD SUPPORT ISOLD CONVECTION ON SATURDAY...THOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEABREEZE AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING...PRIMARILY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN NC...AND IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT NO CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN CENTRAL NC. WITH THE
ABOVE IN MIND...WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION DURING
THE AFT AND EARLY EVE HOURS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SE COASTAL
PLAIN. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES EARLY TO MID WEEK.
THIS WILL EXTEND OUR CURRENT MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN ACROSS NC WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER
THE NC/SC COAST SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BE DEFLECTED TO OUR NORTH AND WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. EVEN WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH THE SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW... ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE BEST
CHANCE IS FORECAST OVER AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE INSTABILITY...
MOISTURE... AND LIFT WILL BE HIGHEST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 88-93
RANGE.

THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST WITH
TIME TO OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TUE-WED. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK
PIEDMONT TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WHICH MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EARLY TO MID
WEEK. OTHERWISE... SIMPLY WARM AND HUMID WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS 69-74. HIGHS 88-93 NW TO SANDHILLS.

FOR MID TO LATE WEEK... ANY SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND
PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY COOLING OR DRYING. HOWEVER... IT MAY ACT AS A
CONTINUED FOCUS FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WED-
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE NAM MODEL GUIDANCE BEST MATCHES THE LATEST OBS DATA...
WHICH SUGGESTS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS (INT/GSO/RDU/RWI) WILL BE
AFFECTED BY PERIODIC OR PERSISTENT IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING...
WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND
ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS...A MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST MAY BE
NECESSARY TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
WHERE CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY SAT AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND A
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 290709
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
309 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WILL EXTEND N/NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY/TONIGHT. A WEST-EAST
ORIENTED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER
AT 06Z THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT IN VICINITY OF THE HWY
64 CORRIDOR TODAY.

BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY WITH THE PRECISE POSITION AND ORIENTATION
OF THE STALLED FRONT TODAY...IN ADDITION TO THE PRECISE ORIENTATION
OF THE LOW-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
RANGE FROM A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE AND ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12-18Z TODAY NORTH OF HWY 64 TO NO WEDGE
DEVELOPMENT AND A SOMEWHAT TYPICAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT SFC-
BASED CONVECTION. GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THE PATTERN IN PLACE
AND THAT CONVECTION COULD LARGELY DICTATE THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW-
LEVEL PATTERN...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST ROUGHLY AS-IS WITH A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF CONVECTION AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT NEAR 70F. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM FRIDAY...

CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SAT/SAT NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST TOWARD THE COAST. THE
LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD WASH OUT
DURING THE DAY AS A LIGHT S/SE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION WITH 500-
1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE SAT AFTERNOON. GIVEN A PROTOTYPICAL SUMMERTIME
`RIDGE` PATTERN...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...IN THE LOWER 90S.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SEASONABLE MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES OF 1.50-
1.75") WOULD SUPPORT ISOLD CONVECTION ON SATURDAY...THOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEABREEZE AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING...PRIMARILY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN NC...AND IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT NO CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN CENTRAL NC. WITH THE
ABOVE IN MIND...WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION DURING
THE AFT AND EARLY EVE HOURS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SE COASTAL
PLAIN. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES EARLY TO MID WEEK.
THIS WILL EXTEND OUR CURRENT MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN ACROSS NC WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER
THE NC/SC COAST SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BE DEFLECTED TO OUR NORTH AND WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. EVEN WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH THE SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW... ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE BEST
CHANCE IS FORECAST OVER AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE INSTABILITY...
MOISTURE... AND LIFT WILL BE HIGHEST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 88-93
RANGE.

THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST WITH
TIME TO OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TUE-WED. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK
PIEDMONT TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WHICH MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EARLY TO MID
WEEK. OTHERWISE... SIMPLY WARM AND HUMID WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS 69-74. HIGHS 88-93 NW TO SANDHILLS.

FOR MID TO LATE WEEK... ANY SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND
PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY COOLING OR DRYING. HOWEVER... IT MAY ACT AS A
CONTINUED FOCUS FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WED-
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ORIENTED WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA AT 06Z WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE NC BORDER TODAY...
EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY CONSIDERABLY
WITH REGARD TO CEILINGS AND PRECIP CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE
00Z NAM INDICATES A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WITH MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12-18Z AT
ALL OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS (INT/GSO/RDU/RWI)...WHILE THE GFS
INDICATES VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OUTSIDE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ASSOC/W ISOLD SFC-BASED CONVECTION. WITH LITTLE INDICATION ONE WAY
OR THE OTHER...WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND INTRODUCE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR BKN015 BETWEEN 12-16Z EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAY TERMINAL.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND A
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290709
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
309 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WILL EXTEND N/NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY/TONIGHT. A WEST-EAST
ORIENTED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER
AT 06Z THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT IN VICINITY OF THE HWY
64 CORRIDOR TODAY.

BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY WITH THE PRECISE POSITION AND ORIENTATION
OF THE STALLED FRONT TODAY...IN ADDITION TO THE PRECISE ORIENTATION
OF THE LOW-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
RANGE FROM A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE AND ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12-18Z TODAY NORTH OF HWY 64 TO NO WEDGE
DEVELOPMENT AND A SOMEWHAT TYPICAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT SFC-
BASED CONVECTION. GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THE PATTERN IN PLACE
AND THAT CONVECTION COULD LARGELY DICTATE THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW-
LEVEL PATTERN...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST ROUGHLY AS-IS WITH A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF CONVECTION AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT NEAR 70F. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM FRIDAY...

CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SAT/SAT NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST TOWARD THE COAST. THE
LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD WASH OUT
DURING THE DAY AS A LIGHT S/SE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION WITH 500-
1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE SAT AFTERNOON. GIVEN A PROTOTYPICAL SUMMERTIME
`RIDGE` PATTERN...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...IN THE LOWER 90S.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SEASONABLE MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES OF 1.50-
1.75") WOULD SUPPORT ISOLD CONVECTION ON SATURDAY...THOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEABREEZE AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING...PRIMARILY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN NC...AND IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT NO CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN CENTRAL NC. WITH THE
ABOVE IN MIND...WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION DURING
THE AFT AND EARLY EVE HOURS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SE COASTAL
PLAIN. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES EARLY TO MID WEEK.
THIS WILL EXTEND OUR CURRENT MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN ACROSS NC WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER
THE NC/SC COAST SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BE DEFLECTED TO OUR NORTH AND WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. EVEN WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH THE SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW... ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE BEST
CHANCE IS FORECAST OVER AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE INSTABILITY...
MOISTURE... AND LIFT WILL BE HIGHEST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 88-93
RANGE.

THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST WITH
TIME TO OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TUE-WED. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK
PIEDMONT TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WHICH MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EARLY TO MID
WEEK. OTHERWISE... SIMPLY WARM AND HUMID WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS 69-74. HIGHS 88-93 NW TO SANDHILLS.

FOR MID TO LATE WEEK... ANY SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND
PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY COOLING OR DRYING. HOWEVER... IT MAY ACT AS A
CONTINUED FOCUS FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WED-
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ORIENTED WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA AT 06Z WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE NC BORDER TODAY...
EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY CONSIDERABLY
WITH REGARD TO CEILINGS AND PRECIP CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE
00Z NAM INDICATES A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WITH MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12-18Z AT
ALL OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS (INT/GSO/RDU/RWI)...WHILE THE GFS
INDICATES VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OUTSIDE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ASSOC/W ISOLD SFC-BASED CONVECTION. WITH LITTLE INDICATION ONE WAY
OR THE OTHER...WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND INTRODUCE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR BKN015 BETWEEN 12-16Z EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAY TERMINAL.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND A
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 290645
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA BORDER TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WILL EXTEND N/NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY/TONIGHT. A WEST-EAST
ORIENTED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LOCATED IN SOUTHERN VA AT 06Z THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LITTLE ADDITIONAL PROGRESS PRIOR TO
STALLING OUT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER TODAY...UNLESS
THE POSITION/ORIENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY IS AUGMENTED BY CONVECTION.

BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY WITH THE PRECISE POSITION AND ORIENTATION
OF THE STALLED FRONT TODAY...IN ADDITION TO THE PRECISE ORIENTATION
OF THE LOW-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT. AS A RESULT... POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
RANGE FROM A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE AND ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12-18Z TODAY NORTH OF HWY 64 TO NO WEDGE
DEVELOPMENT AND A SOMEWHAT TYPICAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT SFC-
BASED CONVECTION. GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THE PATTERN IN PLACE
AND THAT CONVECTION COULD LARGELY DICTATE THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW-
LEVEL PATTERN...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST ROUGHLY AS-IS WITH A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF CONVECTION AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT NEAR 70F. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM FRIDAY...

CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SAT/SAT NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST TOWARD THE COAST. THE
LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD WASH OUT
DURING THE DAY AS A LIGHT S/SE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN A PROTOTYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN...EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION
DURING THE AFT AND EARLY EVE HOURS AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS SAT NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES EARLY TO MID WEEK.
THIS WILL EXTEND OUR CURRENT MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN ACROSS NC WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER
THE NC/SC COAST SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BE DEFLECTED TO OUR NORTH AND WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. EVEN WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH THE SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW... ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE BEST
CHANCE IS FORECAST OVER AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE INSTABILITY...
MOISTURE... AND LIFT WILL BE HIGHEST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 88-93
RANGE.

THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST WITH
TIME TO OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TUE-WED. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK
PIEDMONT TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WHICH MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EARLY TO MID
WEEK. OTHERWISE... SIMPLY WARM AND HUMID WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS 69-74. HIGHS 88-93 NW TO SANDHILLS.

FOR MID TO LATE WEEK... ANY SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND
PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY COOLING OR DRYING. HOWEVER... IT MAY ACT AS A
CONTINUED FOCUS FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WED-
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ORIENTED WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA AT 06Z WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE NC BORDER TODAY...
EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY CONSIDERABLY
WITH REGARD TO CEILINGS AND PRECIP CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE
00Z NAM INDICATES A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WITH MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12-18Z AT
ALL OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS (INT/GSO/RDU/RWI)...WHILE THE GFS
INDICATES VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OUTSIDE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ASSOC/W ISOLD SFC-BASED CONVECTION. WITH LITTLE INDICATION ONE WAY
OR THE OTHER...WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND INTRODUCE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR BKN015 BETWEEN 12-16Z EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAY TERMINAL.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND A
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290645
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA BORDER TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WILL EXTEND N/NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY/TONIGHT. A WEST-EAST
ORIENTED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LOCATED IN SOUTHERN VA AT 06Z THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LITTLE ADDITIONAL PROGRESS PRIOR TO
STALLING OUT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER TODAY...UNLESS
THE POSITION/ORIENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY IS AUGMENTED BY CONVECTION.

BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY WITH THE PRECISE POSITION AND ORIENTATION
OF THE STALLED FRONT TODAY...IN ADDITION TO THE PRECISE ORIENTATION
OF THE LOW-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT. AS A RESULT... POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
RANGE FROM A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE AND ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12-18Z TODAY NORTH OF HWY 64 TO NO WEDGE
DEVELOPMENT AND A SOMEWHAT TYPICAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT SFC-
BASED CONVECTION. GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THE PATTERN IN PLACE
AND THAT CONVECTION COULD LARGELY DICTATE THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW-
LEVEL PATTERN...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST ROUGHLY AS-IS WITH A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF CONVECTION AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT NEAR 70F. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM FRIDAY...

CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SAT/SAT NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST TOWARD THE COAST. THE
LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD WASH OUT
DURING THE DAY AS A LIGHT S/SE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN A PROTOTYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN...EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION
DURING THE AFT AND EARLY EVE HOURS AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS SAT NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES EARLY TO MID WEEK.
THIS WILL EXTEND OUR CURRENT MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN ACROSS NC WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER
THE NC/SC COAST SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BE DEFLECTED TO OUR NORTH AND WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. EVEN WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH THE SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW... ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE BEST
CHANCE IS FORECAST OVER AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE INSTABILITY...
MOISTURE... AND LIFT WILL BE HIGHEST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 88-93
RANGE.

THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST WITH
TIME TO OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TUE-WED. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK
PIEDMONT TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WHICH MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EARLY TO MID
WEEK. OTHERWISE... SIMPLY WARM AND HUMID WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS 69-74. HIGHS 88-93 NW TO SANDHILLS.

FOR MID TO LATE WEEK... ANY SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND
PROVIDE LITTLE IF ANY COOLING OR DRYING. HOWEVER... IT MAY ACT AS A
CONTINUED FOCUS FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WED-
FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ORIENTED WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA AT 06Z WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE NC BORDER TODAY...
EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY CONSIDERABLY
WITH REGARD TO CEILINGS AND PRECIP CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE
00Z NAM INDICATES A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WITH MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12-18Z AT
ALL OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS (INT/GSO/RDU/RWI)...WHILE THE GFS
INDICATES VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OUTSIDE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ASSOC/W ISOLD SFC-BASED CONVECTION. WITH LITTLE INDICATION ONE WAY
OR THE OTHER...WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND INTRODUCE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR BKN015 BETWEEN 12-16Z EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAY TERMINAL.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND A
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 290628
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
228 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA BORDER TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM FRIDAY...

OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WILL EXTEND N/NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY/TONIGHT. A WEST-EAST
ORIENTED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LOCATED IN SOUTHERN VA AT 06Z THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LITTLE ADDITIONAL PROGRESS PRIOR TO
STALLING OUT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER TODAY...UNLESS
THE POSITION/ORIENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY IS AUGMENTED BY CONVECTION.

BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY WITH THE PRECISE POSITION AND ORIENTATION
OF THE STALLED FRONT TODAY...IN ADDITION TO THE PRECISE ORIENTATION
OF THE LOW-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT. AS A RESULT... POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
RANGE FROM A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE AND ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12-18Z TODAY NORTH OF HWY 64 TO NO WEDGE
DEVELOPMENT AND A SOMEWHAT TYPICAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT SFC-
BASED CONVECTION. GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THE PATTERN IN PLACE
AND THAT CONVECTION COULD LARGELY DICTATE THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW-
LEVEL PATTERN...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST ROUGHLY AS-IS WITH A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF CONVECTION AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT NEAR 70F. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM FRIDAY...

CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SAT/SAT NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST TOWARD THE COAST. THE
LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD WASH OUT
DURING THE DAY AS A LIGHT S/SE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN A PROTOTYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN...EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION
DURING THE AFT AND EARLY EVE HOURS AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS SAT NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SETTING UP A RETURN
FLOW REGIME OVER CENTRAL NC THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. AS PW VALUES
CREEP UP OVER TWO INCHES THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY INSTABILITY DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORABLE TIMES AS SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: A MORE DEFINED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING
DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE LOW RAPIDLY MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...FORCING ALONG THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEAK
AS SHOWN BY SMALL STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6KM ON
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPIATION IS IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WITH MODELS HINTING AT A
LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY ARRIVAL AND THEN STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA FOR LATE WEEK. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN DIURNAL WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT AIRMASS
CHANGE. UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ORIENTED WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA AT 06Z WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE NC BORDER TODAY...
EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY CONSIDERABLY
WITH REGARD TO CEILINGS AND PRECIP CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE
00Z NAM INDICATES A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WITH MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12-18Z AT
ALL OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS (INT/GSO/RDU/RWI)...WHILE THE GFS
INDICATES VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OUTSIDE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ASSOC/W ISOLD SFC-BASED CONVECTION. WITH LITTLE INDICATION ONE WAY
OR THE OTHER...WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND INTRODUCE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR BKN015 BETWEEN 12-16Z EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAY TERMINAL.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND A
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 290628
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
228 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA BORDER TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM FRIDAY...

OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WILL EXTEND N/NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY/TONIGHT. A WEST-EAST
ORIENTED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LOCATED IN SOUTHERN VA AT 06Z THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LITTLE ADDITIONAL PROGRESS PRIOR TO
STALLING OUT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER TODAY...UNLESS
THE POSITION/ORIENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY IS AUGMENTED BY CONVECTION.

BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY WITH THE PRECISE POSITION AND ORIENTATION
OF THE STALLED FRONT TODAY...IN ADDITION TO THE PRECISE ORIENTATION
OF THE LOW-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT. AS A RESULT... POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
RANGE FROM A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE AND ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12-18Z TODAY NORTH OF HWY 64 TO NO WEDGE
DEVELOPMENT AND A SOMEWHAT TYPICAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT SFC-
BASED CONVECTION. GIVEN THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THE PATTERN IN PLACE
AND THAT CONVECTION COULD LARGELY DICTATE THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW-
LEVEL PATTERN...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST ROUGHLY AS-IS WITH A SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF CONVECTION AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT NEAR 70F. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM FRIDAY...

CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SAT/SAT NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST TOWARD THE COAST. THE
LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD WASH OUT
DURING THE DAY AS A LIGHT S/SE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN A PROTOTYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN...EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION
DURING THE AFT AND EARLY EVE HOURS AND NEAR NORMAL LOWS SAT NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SETTING UP A RETURN
FLOW REGIME OVER CENTRAL NC THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. AS PW VALUES
CREEP UP OVER TWO INCHES THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY INSTABILITY DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORABLE TIMES AS SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: A MORE DEFINED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING
DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE LOW RAPIDLY MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...FORCING ALONG THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEAK
AS SHOWN BY SMALL STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6KM ON
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPIATION IS IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WITH MODELS HINTING AT A
LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY ARRIVAL AND THEN STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA FOR LATE WEEK. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN DIURNAL WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT AIRMASS
CHANGE. UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ORIENTED WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA AT 06Z WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE NC BORDER TODAY...
EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY CONSIDERABLY
WITH REGARD TO CEILINGS AND PRECIP CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE
00Z NAM INDICATES A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WITH MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12-18Z AT
ALL OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS (INT/GSO/RDU/RWI)...WHILE THE GFS
INDICATES VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OUTSIDE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ASSOC/W ISOLD SFC-BASED CONVECTION. WITH LITTLE INDICATION ONE WAY
OR THE OTHER...WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND INTRODUCE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR BKN015 BETWEEN 12-16Z EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAY TERMINAL.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND A
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290558
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
158 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM THURSDAY...

THE BACKDOOR SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ORIENTED FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL VA HAS MAINTAINED A BAND OF WEAK CONVECTION CENTERED
NEAR FARMVILLE...VA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A PRECEDING...PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NC HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ANY SUCH
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...DESPITE A RIBBON OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND WEAK AND SEEMINGLY UNINHIBITED ML INSTABILITY PER
00Z GSO AND MHX RAOB DATA. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VA WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...AND SUCH A
SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT DESCRIBED ABOVE. WILL
CONSEQUENTLY MAINTAIN A SLIGHT-SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM
THERE OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER...AND HIGHER PROBABILITY...CONCERNS
INCLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG...OWING TO SAID LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS...AND LOW CLOUDS
IN POST-FRONTAL NE LOW LEVEL FLOW ONCE THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO
THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT BY EARLY FRI. IN FACT...A LOW
OVERCAST IS APT TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64 VERY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. IF THE LOW CLOUDS INDEED
MATERIALIZE...THEIR DISPERSION THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRI WOULD BE SLOW
OWING A TRAPPING FRONTAL INVERSION BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD-SETTLING
FRONT...WHICH COULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPS FRI. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE NC/VA BORDER DURING THE DAY BEFORE SLOWLY
RETREATING TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LOWER
TEMPS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHER HIGHS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST
AND CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL DEVELOP IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS
TIME. CONTINUED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SOUTHWESTERLY SOUTH OF IT DURING THE
DAY/EVENING SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO LOW 90S
SOUTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. -KC

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: NORTH CAROLINA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN EXITING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY AND SETTLED ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE AND A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE MAY HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT AROUND 5 KTS GUSTING TO
10 KTS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
INCREASE AS A DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -ELLIS

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SETTING UP A RETURN
FLOW REGIME OVER CENTRAL NC THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. AS PW VALUES
CREEP UP OVER TWO INCHES THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY INSTABILITY DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORABLE TIMES AS SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: A MORE DEFINED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING
DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE LOW RAPIDLY MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...FORCING ALONG THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEAK
AS SHOWN BY SMALL STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6KM ON
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPIATION IS IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WITH MODELS HINTING AT A
LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY ARRIVAL AND THEN STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA FOR LATE WEEK. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN DIURNAL WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT AIRMASS
CHANGE. UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ORIENTED WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA AT 06Z WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE NC BORDER TODAY...
EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY CONSIDERABLY
WITH REGARD TO CEILINGS AND PRECIP CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE
00Z NAM INDICATES A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WITH MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12-18Z AT
ALL OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS (INT/GSO/RDU/RWI)...WHILE THE GFS
INDICATES VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OUTSIDE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ASSOC/W ISOLD SFC-BASED CONVECTION. WITH LITTLE INDICATION ONE WAY
OR THE OTHER...WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND INTRODUCE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR BKN015 BETWEEN 12-16Z EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAY TERMINAL.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND A
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...KC/ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290558
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
158 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM THURSDAY...

THE BACKDOOR SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ORIENTED FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL VA HAS MAINTAINED A BAND OF WEAK CONVECTION CENTERED
NEAR FARMVILLE...VA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A PRECEDING...PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NC HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ANY SUCH
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...DESPITE A RIBBON OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND WEAK AND SEEMINGLY UNINHIBITED ML INSTABILITY PER
00Z GSO AND MHX RAOB DATA. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VA WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...AND SUCH A
SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT DESCRIBED ABOVE. WILL
CONSEQUENTLY MAINTAIN A SLIGHT-SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM
THERE OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER...AND HIGHER PROBABILITY...CONCERNS
INCLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG...OWING TO SAID LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS...AND LOW CLOUDS
IN POST-FRONTAL NE LOW LEVEL FLOW ONCE THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO
THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT BY EARLY FRI. IN FACT...A LOW
OVERCAST IS APT TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64 VERY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. IF THE LOW CLOUDS INDEED
MATERIALIZE...THEIR DISPERSION THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRI WOULD BE SLOW
OWING A TRAPPING FRONTAL INVERSION BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD-SETTLING
FRONT...WHICH COULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPS FRI. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE NC/VA BORDER DURING THE DAY BEFORE SLOWLY
RETREATING TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LOWER
TEMPS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHER HIGHS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST
AND CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL DEVELOP IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS
TIME. CONTINUED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SOUTHWESTERLY SOUTH OF IT DURING THE
DAY/EVENING SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO LOW 90S
SOUTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. -KC

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: NORTH CAROLINA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN EXITING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY AND SETTLED ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE AND A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE MAY HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT AROUND 5 KTS GUSTING TO
10 KTS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
INCREASE AS A DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -ELLIS

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SETTING UP A RETURN
FLOW REGIME OVER CENTRAL NC THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. AS PW VALUES
CREEP UP OVER TWO INCHES THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY INSTABILITY DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORABLE TIMES AS SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: A MORE DEFINED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING
DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE LOW RAPIDLY MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...FORCING ALONG THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEAK
AS SHOWN BY SMALL STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6KM ON
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPIATION IS IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WITH MODELS HINTING AT A
LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY ARRIVAL AND THEN STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA FOR LATE WEEK. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN DIURNAL WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT AIRMASS
CHANGE. UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ORIENTED WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VA AT 06Z WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD THE NC BORDER TODAY...
EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY CONSIDERABLY
WITH REGARD TO CEILINGS AND PRECIP CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE
00Z NAM INDICATES A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE WITH MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12-18Z AT
ALL OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS (INT/GSO/RDU/RWI)...WHILE THE GFS
INDICATES VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OUTSIDE OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ASSOC/W ISOLD SFC-BASED CONVECTION. WITH LITTLE INDICATION ONE WAY
OR THE OTHER...WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND INTRODUCE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR BKN015 BETWEEN 12-16Z EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAY TERMINAL.

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND A
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...KC/ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 290215
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1015 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD FROM
VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA...THEN STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM THURSDAY...

THE BACKDOOR SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ORIENTED FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL VA HAS MAINTAINED A BAND OF WEAK CONVECTION CENTERED
NEAR FARMVILLE...VA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A PRECEDING...PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NC HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ANY SUCH
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...DESPITE A RIBBON OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND WEAK AND SEEMINGLY UNINHIBITED ML INSTABILITY PER
00Z GSO AND MHX RAOB DATA. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VA WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...AND SUCH A
SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT DESCRIBED ABOVE. WILL
CONSEQUENTLY MAINTAIN A SLIGHT-SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM
THERE OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER...AND HIGHER PROBABILITY...CONCERNS
INCLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG...OWING TO SAID LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS...AND LOW CLOUDS
IN POST-FRONTAL NE LOW LEVEL FLOW ONCE THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO
THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT BY EARLY FRI. IN FACT...A LOW
OVERCAST IS APT TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64 VERY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. IF THE LOW CLOUDS INDEED
MATERIALIZE...THEIR DISPERSION THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRI WOULD BE SLOW
OWING A TRAPPING FRONTAL INVERSION BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD-SETTLING
FRONT...WHICH COULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPS FRI. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE NC/VA BORDER DURING THE DAY BEFORE SLOWLY
RETREATING TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LOWER
TEMPS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHER HIGHS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST
AND CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL DEVELOP IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS
TIME. CONTINUED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SOUTHWESTERLY SOUTH OF IT DURING THE
DAY/EVENING SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO LOW 90S
SOUTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. -KC

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: NORTH CAROLINA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN EXITING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY AND SETTLED ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE AND A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE MAY HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT AROUND 5 KTS GUSTING TO
10 KTS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
INCREASE AS A DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -ELLIS

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SETTING UP A RETURN
FLOW REGIME OVER CENTRAL NC THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. AS PW VALUES
CREEP UP OVER TWO INCHES THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY INSTABILITY DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORABLE TIMES AS SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: A MORE DEFINED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING
DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE LOW RAPIDLY MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...FORCING ALONG THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEAK
AS SHOWN BY SMALL STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6KM ON
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPIATION IS IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WITH MODELS HINTING AT A
LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY ARRIVAL AND THEN STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA FOR LATE WEEK. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN DIURNAL WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT AIRMASS
CHANGE. UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 06Z.  A COLD FRONT OVER VA WILL PUSH INTO NC FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT.  LOW CLOUDS...AND POTENTIALLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS... ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.  BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF MOST MODEL GUIDANCE...IFR CEILINGS ARE MOST LIKELY
FROM JUST EAST OF KGSO/KINT TO KRDU AND KRWI AFTER 09Z. KFAY SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND CLEAR OF ANY SUB-VFR CEILINGS.

LOW-CLOUDS WILL LIFT THROUGH MID-MORNING FRIDAY...THOUGH WITH AN
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND...CEILINGS MAY REMAIN IN THE 2000-
3000FT RANGE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY.  ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
NEAR THE FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH.

LOOKING AHEAD: CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL IN THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOWLY LIFT NNE AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION...
INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
YIELD INCREASED CHANCES FOR LOW CEILINGS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE DRY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE AFT/EVE...SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...KC/ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...KC/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290215
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1015 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD FROM
VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA...THEN STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM THURSDAY...

THE BACKDOOR SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ORIENTED FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL VA HAS MAINTAINED A BAND OF WEAK CONVECTION CENTERED
NEAR FARMVILLE...VA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A PRECEDING...PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NC HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ANY SUCH
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...DESPITE A RIBBON OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND WEAK AND SEEMINGLY UNINHIBITED ML INSTABILITY PER
00Z GSO AND MHX RAOB DATA. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL VA WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...AND SUCH A
SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT DESCRIBED ABOVE. WILL
CONSEQUENTLY MAINTAIN A SLIGHT-SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM
THERE OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER...AND HIGHER PROBABILITY...CONCERNS
INCLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG...OWING TO SAID LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS...AND LOW CLOUDS
IN POST-FRONTAL NE LOW LEVEL FLOW ONCE THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH INTO
THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT BY EARLY FRI. IN FACT...A LOW
OVERCAST IS APT TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64 VERY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. IF THE LOW CLOUDS INDEED
MATERIALIZE...THEIR DISPERSION THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRI WOULD BE SLOW
OWING A TRAPPING FRONTAL INVERSION BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD-SETTLING
FRONT...WHICH COULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPS FRI. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE NC/VA BORDER DURING THE DAY BEFORE SLOWLY
RETREATING TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LOWER
TEMPS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHER HIGHS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST
AND CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL DEVELOP IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS
TIME. CONTINUED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SOUTHWESTERLY SOUTH OF IT DURING THE
DAY/EVENING SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO LOW 90S
SOUTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. -KC

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: NORTH CAROLINA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN EXITING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY AND SETTLED ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE AND A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE MAY HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT AROUND 5 KTS GUSTING TO
10 KTS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
INCREASE AS A DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -ELLIS

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SETTING UP A RETURN
FLOW REGIME OVER CENTRAL NC THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. AS PW VALUES
CREEP UP OVER TWO INCHES THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY INSTABILITY DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORABLE TIMES AS SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: A MORE DEFINED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING
DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE LOW RAPIDLY MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...FORCING ALONG THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEAK
AS SHOWN BY SMALL STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6KM ON
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPIATION IS IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WITH MODELS HINTING AT A
LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY ARRIVAL AND THEN STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA FOR LATE WEEK. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN DIURNAL WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT AIRMASS
CHANGE. UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 06Z.  A COLD FRONT OVER VA WILL PUSH INTO NC FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT.  LOW CLOUDS...AND POTENTIALLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS... ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.  BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF MOST MODEL GUIDANCE...IFR CEILINGS ARE MOST LIKELY
FROM JUST EAST OF KGSO/KINT TO KRDU AND KRWI AFTER 09Z. KFAY SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND CLEAR OF ANY SUB-VFR CEILINGS.

LOW-CLOUDS WILL LIFT THROUGH MID-MORNING FRIDAY...THOUGH WITH AN
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND...CEILINGS MAY REMAIN IN THE 2000-
3000FT RANGE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY.  ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
NEAR THE FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH.

LOOKING AHEAD: CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL IN THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOWLY LIFT NNE AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION...
INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
YIELD INCREASED CHANCES FOR LOW CEILINGS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE DRY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE AFT/EVE...SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...KC/ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...KC/BLS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 290017
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
815 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD FROM
VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN STALL OUT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...

EXPECT THE DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT...WITH
THE H85 FRONT SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTH TOWARD THE NC/VA BORDER. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AT H5 TRAVERSING THE RIDGE OVER VA ALONG THE FRONT MAY
HELP GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFT AND EVE.
AT THE SURFACE...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH
THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...STALLING AROUND THE NC/VA BORDER
OVERNIGHT. AS LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AND PW`S WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75" THIS EVENING. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE MORE
ROBUST WITH THE INSTABILITY...FORECASTING MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
WHILE THE GFS STILL HAS AROUND 500 J/KG. MOST OF THE HI-RES
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE STILL GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AROUND
21Z THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION...DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE
HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH AROUND 06Z...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DEPEND SOME ON
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE FRONT...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE NC/VA BORDER DURING THE DAY BEFORE SLOWLY
RETREATING TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LOWER
TEMPS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHER HIGHS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST
AND CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL DEVELOP IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS
TIME. CONTINUED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SOUTHWESTERLY SOUTH OF IT DURING THE
DAY/EVENING SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO LOW 90S
SOUTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. -KC

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: NORTH CAROLINA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN EXITING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY AND SETTLED ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE AND A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE MAY HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT AROUND 5 KTS GUSTING TO
10 KTS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
INCREASE AS A DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -ELLIS

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SETTING UP A RETURN
FLOW REGIME OVER CENTRAL NC THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. AS PW VALUES
CREEP UP OVER TWO INCHES THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY INSTABILITY DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORABLE TIMES AS SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: A MORE DEFINED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING
DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE LOW RAPIDLY MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...FORCING ALONG THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEAK
AS SHOWN BY SMALL STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6KM ON
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPIATION IS IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WITH MODELS HINTING AT A
LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY ARRIVAL AND THEN STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA FOR LATE WEEK. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN DIURNAL WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT AIRMASS
CHANGE. UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 06Z.  A COLD FRONT OVER VA WILL PUSH INTO NC FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT.  LOW CLOUDS...AND POTENTIALLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS... ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.  BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF MOST MODEL GUIDANCE...IFR CEILINGS ARE MOST LIKELY
FROM JUST EAST OF KGSO/KINT TO KRDU AND KRWI AFTER 09Z. KFAY SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND CLEAR OF ANY SUB-VFR CEILINGS.

LOW-CLOUDS WILL LIFT THROUGH MID-MORNING FRIDAY...THOUGH WITH AN
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND...CEILINGS MAY REMAIN IN THE 2000-
3000FT RANGE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY.  ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
NEAR THE FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH.

LOOKING AHEAD: CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL IN THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOWLY LIFT NNE AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION...
INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
YIELD INCREASED CHANCES FOR LOW CEILINGS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE DRY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE AFT/EVE...SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC/ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...KC/BLS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 290017
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
815 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD FROM
VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN STALL OUT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...

EXPECT THE DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT...WITH
THE H85 FRONT SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTH TOWARD THE NC/VA BORDER. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AT H5 TRAVERSING THE RIDGE OVER VA ALONG THE FRONT MAY
HELP GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFT AND EVE.
AT THE SURFACE...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH
THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...STALLING AROUND THE NC/VA BORDER
OVERNIGHT. AS LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AND PW`S WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75" THIS EVENING. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE MORE
ROBUST WITH THE INSTABILITY...FORECASTING MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
WHILE THE GFS STILL HAS AROUND 500 J/KG. MOST OF THE HI-RES
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE STILL GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AROUND
21Z THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION...DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE
HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH AROUND 06Z...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DEPEND SOME ON
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE FRONT...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE NC/VA BORDER DURING THE DAY BEFORE SLOWLY
RETREATING TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LOWER
TEMPS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHER HIGHS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST
AND CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL DEVELOP IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS
TIME. CONTINUED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SOUTHWESTERLY SOUTH OF IT DURING THE
DAY/EVENING SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO LOW 90S
SOUTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. -KC

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: NORTH CAROLINA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN EXITING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY AND SETTLED ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE AND A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE MAY HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT AROUND 5 KTS GUSTING TO
10 KTS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
INCREASE AS A DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -ELLIS

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SETTING UP A RETURN
FLOW REGIME OVER CENTRAL NC THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. AS PW VALUES
CREEP UP OVER TWO INCHES THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY INSTABILITY DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORABLE TIMES AS SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: A MORE DEFINED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING
DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE LOW RAPIDLY MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...FORCING ALONG THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEAK
AS SHOWN BY SMALL STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6KM ON
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPIATION IS IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WITH MODELS HINTING AT A
LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY ARRIVAL AND THEN STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA FOR LATE WEEK. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN DIURNAL WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT AIRMASS
CHANGE. UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM THURSDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 06Z.  A COLD FRONT OVER VA WILL PUSH INTO NC FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT.  LOW CLOUDS...AND POTENTIALLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS... ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.  BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF MOST MODEL GUIDANCE...IFR CEILINGS ARE MOST LIKELY
FROM JUST EAST OF KGSO/KINT TO KRDU AND KRWI AFTER 09Z. KFAY SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND CLEAR OF ANY SUB-VFR CEILINGS.

LOW-CLOUDS WILL LIFT THROUGH MID-MORNING FRIDAY...THOUGH WITH AN
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND...CEILINGS MAY REMAIN IN THE 2000-
3000FT RANGE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY.  ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
NEAR THE FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH.

LOOKING AHEAD: CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL IN THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOWLY LIFT NNE AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION...
INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
YIELD INCREASED CHANCES FOR LOW CEILINGS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE DRY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE AFT/EVE...SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC/ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...KC/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281846
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
246 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD FROM
VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN STALL OUT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...

EXPECT THE DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT...WITH
THE H85 FRONT SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTH TOWARD THE NC/VA BORDER. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AT H5 TRAVERSING THE RIDGE OVER VA ALONG THE FRONT MAY
HELP GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFT AND EVE.
AT THE SURFACE...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH
THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...STALLING AROUND THE NC/VA BORDER
OVERNIGHT. AS LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AND PW`S WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75" THIS EVENING. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE MORE
ROBUST WITH THE INSTABILITY...FORECASTING MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
WHILE THE GFS STILL HAS AROUND 500 J/KG. MOST OF THE HI-RES
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE STILL GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AROUND
21Z THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION...DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE
HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH AROUND 06Z...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DEPEND SOME ON
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE FRONT...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE NC/VA BORDER DURING THE DAY BEFORE SLOWLY
RETREATING TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LOWER
TEMPS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHER HIGHS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST
AND CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL DEVELOP IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS
TIME. CONTINUED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SOUTHWESTERLY SOUTH OF IT DURING THE
DAY/EVENING SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO LOW 90S
SOUTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. -KC

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: NORTH CAROLINA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN EXITING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY AND SETTLED ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE AND A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE MAY HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT AROUND 5 KTS GUSTING TO
10 KTS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
INCREASE AS A DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -ELLIS

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SETTING UP A RETURN
FLOW REGIME OVER CENTRAL NC THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. AS PW VALUES
CREEP UP OVER TWO INCHES THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY INSTABILITY DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORABLE TIMES AS SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: A MORE DEFINED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING
DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE LOW RAPIDLY MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...FORCING ALONG THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEAK
AS SHOWN BY SMALL STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6KM ON
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPIATION IS IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WITH MODELS HINTING AT A
LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY ARRIVAL AND THEN STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA FOR LATE WEEK. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN DIURNAL WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT AIRMASS
CHANGE. UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTH (KINT/KGSO/KRDU/KRWI) BETWEEN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z FRIDAY AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WITH THE COVERAGE AND
CONFIDENCE BEING LIMITED...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS BUT MAY NEED TO
AMEND SHOULD SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD/SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...COULD RESULT IN SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS OF 500-
1500 FT POSSIBLE. WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER
FRIDAY...CLOUDS COULD REMAIN BROKEN TO SCATTERED AROUND 3 KFT
THROUGH THE DAY AT THE AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
CIGS SCATTERED BUT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TO
HAVE HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW AT THIS TIME.

LOOKING AHEAD: CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL IN THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOWLY LIFT NNE AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION...
INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
YIELD INCREASED CHANCES FOR LOW CEILINGS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE DRY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE AFT/EVE...SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC/ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...KC




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281846
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
246 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD FROM
VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN STALL OUT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...

EXPECT THE DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT...WITH
THE H85 FRONT SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTH TOWARD THE NC/VA BORDER. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AT H5 TRAVERSING THE RIDGE OVER VA ALONG THE FRONT MAY
HELP GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFT AND EVE.
AT THE SURFACE...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH
THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...STALLING AROUND THE NC/VA BORDER
OVERNIGHT. AS LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AND PW`S WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75" THIS EVENING. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE MORE
ROBUST WITH THE INSTABILITY...FORECASTING MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
WHILE THE GFS STILL HAS AROUND 500 J/KG. MOST OF THE HI-RES
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE STILL GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AROUND
21Z THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION...DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE
HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH AROUND 06Z...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DEPEND SOME ON
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE FRONT...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE NC/VA BORDER DURING THE DAY BEFORE SLOWLY
RETREATING TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LOWER
TEMPS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHER HIGHS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST
AND CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL DEVELOP IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS
TIME. CONTINUED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SOUTHWESTERLY SOUTH OF IT DURING THE
DAY/EVENING SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO LOW 90S
SOUTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. -KC

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: NORTH CAROLINA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN EXITING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY AND SETTLED ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE AND A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE MAY HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT AROUND 5 KTS GUSTING TO
10 KTS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
INCREASE AS A DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -ELLIS

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SETTING UP A RETURN
FLOW REGIME OVER CENTRAL NC THAT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. AS PW VALUES
CREEP UP OVER TWO INCHES THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE...MAINLY DRIVEN BY INSTABILITY DURING THE DIURNALLY
FAVORABLE TIMES AS SHEAR WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: A MORE DEFINED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING
DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE LOW RAPIDLY MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...FORCING ALONG THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WEAK
AS SHOWN BY SMALL STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6KM ON
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPIATION IS IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME WITH MODELS HINTING AT A
LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY ARRIVAL AND THEN STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA FOR LATE WEEK. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN DIURNAL WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MORE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT AIRMASS
CHANGE. UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTH (KINT/KGSO/KRDU/KRWI) BETWEEN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z FRIDAY AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WITH THE COVERAGE AND
CONFIDENCE BEING LIMITED...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS BUT MAY NEED TO
AMEND SHOULD SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD/SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...COULD RESULT IN SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS OF 500-
1500 FT POSSIBLE. WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER
FRIDAY...CLOUDS COULD REMAIN BROKEN TO SCATTERED AROUND 3 KFT
THROUGH THE DAY AT THE AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
CIGS SCATTERED BUT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TO
HAVE HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW AT THIS TIME.

LOOKING AHEAD: CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL IN THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOWLY LIFT NNE AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION...
INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
YIELD INCREASED CHANCES FOR LOW CEILINGS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE DRY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE AFT/EVE...SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC/ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...KC





000
FXUS62 KRAH 281806
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
206 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD FROM
VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN STALL OUT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...

EXPECT THE DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT...WITH
THE H85 FRONT SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTH TOWARD THE NC/VA BORDER. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AT H5 TRAVERSING THE RIDGE OVER VA ALONG THE FRONT MAY
HELP GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFT AND EVE.
AT THE SURFACE...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH
THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...STALLING AROUND THE NC/VA BORDER
OVERNIGHT. AS LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AND PW`S WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75" THIS EVENING. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE MORE
ROBUST WITH THE INSTABILITY...FORECASTING MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
WHILE THE GFS STILL HAS AROUND 500 J/KG. MOST OF THE HI-RES
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE STILL GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AROUND
21Z THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION...DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE
HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH AROUND 06Z...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DEPEND SOME ON
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE FRONT...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE NC/VA BORDER DURING THE DAY BEFORE SLOWLY
RETREATING TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LOWER
TEMPS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHER HIGHS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST
AND CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL DEVELOP IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS
TIME. CONTINUED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SOUTHWESTERLY SOUTH OF IT DURING THE
DAY/EVENING SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO LOW 90S
SOUTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. -KC

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: NORTH CAROLINA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN EXITING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY AND SETTLED ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE AND A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE MAY HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT AROUND 5 KTS GUSTING TO
10 KTS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
INCREASE AS A DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -ELLIS

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SAT-
MON... THEN BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE WAS FASTER THIS RUN WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS AND THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SLATED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASING HEAT...HUMIDITY...
AND THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT IS NOW SLATED TO
ARRIVE WED PM. THE FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH OF THE STATE THURSDAY
ALLOWING FOR COOLING FROM THE NE AGAIN THU-FRI.

UNTIL THEN... EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
WEEKEND. A CHANCE OF PM THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. HIGHS
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL (86-92) BOTH SAT-SUN. LOWS 65-70.

MON-WED... A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY... WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. HIGHS 86-92.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY WITH THE
NE FLOW LEVEL FLOW. ALSO... THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT
WITH THE FRONT INTO FAR SE NC AND SC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTH (KINT/KGSO/KRDU/KRWI) BETWEEN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z FRIDAY AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WITH THE COVERAGE AND
CONFIDENCE BEING LIMITED...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS BUT MAY NEED TO
AMEND SHOULD SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD/SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...COULD RESULT IN SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS OF 500-
1500 FT POSSIBLE. WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER
FRIDAY...CLOUDS COULD REMAIN BROKEN TO SCATTERED AROUND 3 KFT
THROUGH THE DAY AT THE AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
CIGS SCATTERED BUT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TO
HAVE HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW AT THIS TIME.

LOOKING AHEAD: CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL IN THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOWLY LIFT NNE AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION...
INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
YIELD INCREASED CHANCES FOR LOW CEILINGS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE DRY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE AFT/EVE...SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC/ELLIS
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KC




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281806
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
206 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD FROM
VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN STALL OUT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...

EXPECT THE DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT...WITH
THE H85 FRONT SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTH TOWARD THE NC/VA BORDER. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AT H5 TRAVERSING THE RIDGE OVER VA ALONG THE FRONT MAY
HELP GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFT AND EVE.
AT THE SURFACE...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH
THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...STALLING AROUND THE NC/VA BORDER
OVERNIGHT. AS LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AND PW`S WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75" THIS EVENING. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE MORE
ROBUST WITH THE INSTABILITY...FORECASTING MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
WHILE THE GFS STILL HAS AROUND 500 J/KG. MOST OF THE HI-RES
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE STILL GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AROUND
21Z THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION...DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE
HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH AROUND 06Z...BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DEPEND SOME ON
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE FRONT...BUT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE NC/VA BORDER DURING THE DAY BEFORE SLOWLY
RETREATING TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LOWER
TEMPS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHER HIGHS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST
AND CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL DEVELOP IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS
TIME. CONTINUED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SOUTHWESTERLY SOUTH OF IT DURING THE
DAY/EVENING SHOULD BECOME GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S NORTH TO LOW 90S
SOUTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. -KC

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: NORTH CAROLINA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN EXITING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP WEATHER DRY AND SETTLED ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE STABLE AND A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE MAY HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
LOWER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT AROUND 5 KTS GUSTING TO
10 KTS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
INCREASE AS A DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINNING ON SUNDAY. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -ELLIS

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SAT-
MON... THEN BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE WAS FASTER THIS RUN WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS AND THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SLATED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASING HEAT...HUMIDITY...
AND THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT IS NOW SLATED TO
ARRIVE WED PM. THE FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH OF THE STATE THURSDAY
ALLOWING FOR COOLING FROM THE NE AGAIN THU-FRI.

UNTIL THEN... EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
WEEKEND. A CHANCE OF PM THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. HIGHS
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL (86-92) BOTH SAT-SUN. LOWS 65-70.

MON-WED... A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY... WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. HIGHS 86-92.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY WITH THE
NE FLOW LEVEL FLOW. ALSO... THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT
WITH THE FRONT INTO FAR SE NC AND SC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTH (KINT/KGSO/KRDU/KRWI) BETWEEN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z FRIDAY AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WITH THE COVERAGE AND
CONFIDENCE BEING LIMITED...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS BUT MAY NEED TO
AMEND SHOULD SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD/SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...COULD RESULT IN SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS OF 500-
1500 FT POSSIBLE. WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER
FRIDAY...CLOUDS COULD REMAIN BROKEN TO SCATTERED AROUND 3 KFT
THROUGH THE DAY AT THE AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
CIGS SCATTERED BUT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TO
HAVE HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW AT THIS TIME.

LOOKING AHEAD: CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL IN THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOWLY LIFT NNE AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION...
INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
YIELD INCREASED CHANCES FOR LOW CEILINGS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE DRY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE AFT/EVE...SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC/ELLIS
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KC





000
FXUS62 KRAH 281722
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
122 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD FROM
VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN STALL OUT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER AIR ANALYSES FROM 12Z TODAY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SANDWICHED BETWEEN
A LOW OVER NE AND A LOW WELL TO THE NE OF NEW ENGLAND. THE H85 FRONT
EXTENDS FROM APPROX NYC WSW THROUGH OH AND INTO IA. EXPECT THE HIGH
TO DRIFT EAST TODAY...WITH THE RIDGE DAMPENING AND THE FRONT SLOWLY
SLIDING SOUTH TOWARD THE NC/VA BORDER. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AT H5
TRAVERSING THE RIDGE OVER VA ALONG THE FRONT MAY HELP GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THE AFT AND EVE. AT THE SURFACE...THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...
STALLING AROUND THE NC/VA BORDER OVERNIGHT. AS LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SEE DEWPOINTS
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AND PW`S INCREASING FROM ABOUT 1.50" TO
1.75" THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST INSTABILITY DIFFERS BETWEEN THE NAM
AND GFS...WITH THE NAM FORECASTING MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG WHILE
THE GFS ONLY HAS AROUND 500 J/KG. MOST OF THE HI-RES CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AROUND 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...DRIFTING
SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE GREAT. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

RIDGING ALOFT WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING
FRI/FRI NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OVER THE REGION
WILL INTRODUCE A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES...INCLUDING A POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
HYBRID CAD AND ELEVATED CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME WILL MAKE LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THOUGH ADDITIONAL MODIFICATIONS
MAY BE NEEDED PER FURTHER MODEL/DATA ANALYSIS THIS MORNING. THE MOST
LIKELY CHANGES WOULD BE A DROP IN HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE N/NW
PIEDMONT AND AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF CONVECTION IN MOST
LOCATIONS...POSSIBLY EVEN FRI NIGHT WHEN FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
WEAK NOCTURNAL WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN THE PRESENCE OF PLENTIFUL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SAT-
MON... THEN BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE WAS FASTER THIS RUN WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS AND THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SLATED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASING HEAT...HUMIDITY...
AND THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT IS NOW SLATED TO
ARRIVE WED PM. THE FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH OF THE STATE THURSDAY
ALLOWING FOR COOLING FROM THE NE AGAIN THU-FRI.

UNTIL THEN... EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
WEEKEND. A CHANCE OF PM THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. HIGHS
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL (86-92) BOTH SAT-SUN. LOWS 65-70.

MON-WED... A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY... WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. HIGHS 86-92.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY WITH THE
NE FLOW LEVEL FLOW. ALSO... THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT
WITH THE FRONT INTO FAR SE NC AND SC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTH (KINT/KGSO/KRDU/KRWI) BETWEEN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z FRIDAY AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WITH THE COVERAGE AND
CONFIDENCE BEING LIMITED...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS BUT MAY NEED TO
AMEND SHOULD SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD/SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...COULD RESULT IN SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS OF 500-
1500 FT POSSIBLE. WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER
FRIDAY...CLOUDS COULD REMAIN BROKEN TO SCATTERED AROUND 3 KFT
THROUGH THE DAY AT THE AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
CIGS SCATTERED BUT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TO
HAVE HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW AT THIS TIME.

LOOKING AHEAD: CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL IN THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOWLY LIFT NNE AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION...
INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
YIELD INCREASED CHANCES FOR LOW CEILINGS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE DRY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE AFT/EVE...SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KC




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281722
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
122 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD FROM
VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN STALL OUT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER AIR ANALYSES FROM 12Z TODAY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SANDWICHED BETWEEN
A LOW OVER NE AND A LOW WELL TO THE NE OF NEW ENGLAND. THE H85 FRONT
EXTENDS FROM APPROX NYC WSW THROUGH OH AND INTO IA. EXPECT THE HIGH
TO DRIFT EAST TODAY...WITH THE RIDGE DAMPENING AND THE FRONT SLOWLY
SLIDING SOUTH TOWARD THE NC/VA BORDER. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AT H5
TRAVERSING THE RIDGE OVER VA ALONG THE FRONT MAY HELP GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THE AFT AND EVE. AT THE SURFACE...THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...
STALLING AROUND THE NC/VA BORDER OVERNIGHT. AS LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SEE DEWPOINTS
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AND PW`S INCREASING FROM ABOUT 1.50" TO
1.75" THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST INSTABILITY DIFFERS BETWEEN THE NAM
AND GFS...WITH THE NAM FORECASTING MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG WHILE
THE GFS ONLY HAS AROUND 500 J/KG. MOST OF THE HI-RES CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AROUND 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...DRIFTING
SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE GREAT. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

RIDGING ALOFT WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING
FRI/FRI NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OVER THE REGION
WILL INTRODUCE A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES...INCLUDING A POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
HYBRID CAD AND ELEVATED CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME WILL MAKE LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THOUGH ADDITIONAL MODIFICATIONS
MAY BE NEEDED PER FURTHER MODEL/DATA ANALYSIS THIS MORNING. THE MOST
LIKELY CHANGES WOULD BE A DROP IN HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE N/NW
PIEDMONT AND AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF CONVECTION IN MOST
LOCATIONS...POSSIBLY EVEN FRI NIGHT WHEN FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
WEAK NOCTURNAL WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN THE PRESENCE OF PLENTIFUL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SAT-
MON... THEN BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE WAS FASTER THIS RUN WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS AND THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SLATED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASING HEAT...HUMIDITY...
AND THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT IS NOW SLATED TO
ARRIVE WED PM. THE FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH OF THE STATE THURSDAY
ALLOWING FOR COOLING FROM THE NE AGAIN THU-FRI.

UNTIL THEN... EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
WEEKEND. A CHANCE OF PM THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. HIGHS
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL (86-92) BOTH SAT-SUN. LOWS 65-70.

MON-WED... A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY... WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. HIGHS 86-92.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY WITH THE
NE FLOW LEVEL FLOW. ALSO... THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT
WITH THE FRONT INTO FAR SE NC AND SC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTH (KINT/KGSO/KRDU/KRWI) BETWEEN 21Z TODAY AND 06Z FRIDAY AS A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WITH THE COVERAGE AND
CONFIDENCE BEING LIMITED...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS BUT MAY NEED TO
AMEND SHOULD SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD/SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...COULD RESULT IN SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS OF 500-
1500 FT POSSIBLE. WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER
FRIDAY...CLOUDS COULD REMAIN BROKEN TO SCATTERED AROUND 3 KFT
THROUGH THE DAY AT THE AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
CIGS SCATTERED BUT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TO
HAVE HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW AT THIS TIME.

LOOKING AHEAD: CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL IN THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO SLOWLY LIFT NNE AWAY FROM THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION...
INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
YIELD INCREASED CHANCES FOR LOW CEILINGS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE DRY...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE AFT/EVE...SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KC





000
FXUS62 KRAH 281435
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1035 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD FROM
VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN STALL OUT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER AIR ANALYSES FROM 12Z TODAY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SANDWICHED BETWEEN
A LOW OVER NE AND A LOW WELL TO THE NE OF NEW ENGLAND. THE H85 FRONT
EXTENDS FROM APPROX NYC WSW THROUGH OH AND INTO IA. EXPECT THE HIGH
TO DRIFT EAST TODAY...WITH THE RIDGE DAMPENING AND THE FRONT SLOWLY
SLIDING SOUTH TOWARD THE NC/VA BORDER. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AT H5
TRAVERSING THE RIDGE OVER VA ALONG THE FRONT MAY HELP GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THE AFT AND EVE. AT THE SURFACE...THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...
STALLING AROUND THE NC/VA BORDER OVERNIGHT. AS LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SEE DEWPOINTS
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AND PW`S INCREASING FROM ABOUT 1.50" TO
1.75" THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST INSTABILITY DIFFERS BETWEEN THE NAM
AND GFS...WITH THE NAM FORECASTING MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG WHILE
THE GFS ONLY HAS AROUND 500 J/KG. MOST OF THE HI-RES CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AROUND 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...DRIFTING
SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE GREAT. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

RIDGING ALOFT WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING
FRI/FRI NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OVER THE REGION
WILL INTRODUCE A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES...INCLUDING A POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
HYBRID CAD AND ELEVATED CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME WILL MAKE LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THOUGH ADDITIONAL MODIFICATIONS
MAY BE NEEDED PER FURTHER MODEL/DATA ANALYSIS THIS MORNING. THE MOST
LIKELY CHANGES WOULD BE A DROP IN HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE N/NW
PIEDMONT AND AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF CONVECTION IN MOST
LOCATIONS...POSSIBLY EVEN FRI NIGHT WHEN FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
WEAK NOCTURNAL WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN THE PRESENCE OF PLENTIFUL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SAT-
MON... THEN BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE WAS FASTER THIS RUN WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS AND THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SLATED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASING HEAT...HUMIDITY...
AND THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT IS NOW SLATED TO
ARRIVE WED PM. THE FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH OF THE STATE THURSDAY
ALLOWING FOR COOLING FROM THE NE AGAIN THU-FRI.

UNTIL THEN... EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
WEEKEND. A CHANCE OF PM THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. HIGHS
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL (86-92) BOTH SAT-SUN. LOWS 65-70.

MON-WED... A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY... WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. HIGHS 86-92.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY WITH THE
NE FLOW LEVEL FLOW. ALSO... THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT
WITH THE FRONT INTO FAR SE NC AND SC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION
AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH/SE INTO
THE REGION THIS AFT/EVE INTO TONIGHT...OR ROUGHLY FROM 21Z THIS AFT
THROUGH 06Z FRI MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM THE VA BORDER
SOUTH TO THE INT/GSO/RDU/RWI TERMINALS.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE FRONT WILL STALL AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE REGION FRI/FRI NIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL IN
THIS PERIOD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
EVERYWHERE FRI/FRI NIGHT...OR THAT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ASSOC/W LOW
CEILINGS AND ISOLD ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD BE PRESENT LATE FRI/FRI
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...I.E. A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD AFT/EVE
CONVECTION AND EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 281435
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1035 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD FROM
VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN STALL OUT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER AIR ANALYSES FROM 12Z TODAY SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SANDWICHED BETWEEN
A LOW OVER NE AND A LOW WELL TO THE NE OF NEW ENGLAND. THE H85 FRONT
EXTENDS FROM APPROX NYC WSW THROUGH OH AND INTO IA. EXPECT THE HIGH
TO DRIFT EAST TODAY...WITH THE RIDGE DAMPENING AND THE FRONT SLOWLY
SLIDING SOUTH TOWARD THE NC/VA BORDER. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AT H5
TRAVERSING THE RIDGE OVER VA ALONG THE FRONT MAY HELP GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THE AFT AND EVE. AT THE SURFACE...THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...
STALLING AROUND THE NC/VA BORDER OVERNIGHT. AS LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SEE DEWPOINTS
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AND PW`S INCREASING FROM ABOUT 1.50" TO
1.75" THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST INSTABILITY DIFFERS BETWEEN THE NAM
AND GFS...WITH THE NAM FORECASTING MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG WHILE
THE GFS ONLY HAS AROUND 500 J/KG. MOST OF THE HI-RES CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AROUND 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...DRIFTING
SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE GREAT. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED...WITH LOWS
TONIGHT AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

RIDGING ALOFT WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING
FRI/FRI NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OVER THE REGION
WILL INTRODUCE A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES...INCLUDING A POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
HYBRID CAD AND ELEVATED CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME WILL MAKE LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THOUGH ADDITIONAL MODIFICATIONS
MAY BE NEEDED PER FURTHER MODEL/DATA ANALYSIS THIS MORNING. THE MOST
LIKELY CHANGES WOULD BE A DROP IN HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE N/NW
PIEDMONT AND AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF CONVECTION IN MOST
LOCATIONS...POSSIBLY EVEN FRI NIGHT WHEN FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
WEAK NOCTURNAL WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN THE PRESENCE OF PLENTIFUL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SAT-
MON... THEN BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE WAS FASTER THIS RUN WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS AND THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SLATED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASING HEAT...HUMIDITY...
AND THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT IS NOW SLATED TO
ARRIVE WED PM. THE FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH OF THE STATE THURSDAY
ALLOWING FOR COOLING FROM THE NE AGAIN THU-FRI.

UNTIL THEN... EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
WEEKEND. A CHANCE OF PM THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. HIGHS
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL (86-92) BOTH SAT-SUN. LOWS 65-70.

MON-WED... A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY... WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. HIGHS 86-92.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY WITH THE
NE FLOW LEVEL FLOW. ALSO... THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT
WITH THE FRONT INTO FAR SE NC AND SC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION
AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH/SE INTO
THE REGION THIS AFT/EVE INTO TONIGHT...OR ROUGHLY FROM 21Z THIS AFT
THROUGH 06Z FRI MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM THE VA BORDER
SOUTH TO THE INT/GSO/RDU/RWI TERMINALS.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE FRONT WILL STALL AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE REGION FRI/FRI NIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL IN
THIS PERIOD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
EVERYWHERE FRI/FRI NIGHT...OR THAT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ASSOC/W LOW
CEILINGS AND ISOLD ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD BE PRESENT LATE FRI/FRI
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...I.E. A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD AFT/EVE
CONVECTION AND EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281115
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
715 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD FROM
VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN STALL OUT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL RESULT IN SFC PRESSURE RISES OVER THE OH
VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...DRIVING A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM
THE MASON-DIXON LINE SOUTHWARD TO THE VA/NC BORDER LATE THIS AFT/EVE
INTO TONIGHT. CENTRAL NC WILL BE SITUATED ON THE NORTH/NNE PERIPHERY
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FL TODAY...WITH THE
PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES LOCATED FURTHER NORTH IN THE MID-
ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...FORCING FOR ASCENT TODAY WILL LARGELY BE
CONFINED TO WEAK/SHALLOW CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEST-EAST BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO ALONG OR NEAR THE NC/VA
BORDER. A MOIST UPSTREAM AIRMASS (925MB TD 17-19C/H85 TD ~15C) OVER
WV/VA WILL ADVECT SOUTH/SE INTO THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON...DISPLACING THE DRY/STABLE AIRMASS PREVIOUSLY IN PLACE
AND CONTRIBUTING TO AS MUCH AS 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE DURING PEAK
HEATING. IN FACT...A WEST-EAST INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED
TO DEVELOP VERY NEAR THE HWY 64 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE VA BORDER AND THE WEAKEST NEAR THE SC
BORDER.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP...THOUGH THE BULK OF 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
DEVELOP IN VCNTY OF THE VA BORDER. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL
INDICATE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM HWY 64 NORTH TO THE VA BORDER
BETWEEN 18-04Z (1PM-MIDNIGHT)...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE
NC/VA BORDER COUNTIES. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AT <15 KT...
AND THERE WILL BE NO POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION... THOUGH
STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES...MODERATE DCAPE(750-1000 J/KG)...AND PWAT
VALUES ~1.75" SUGGEST A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF SEVERE
DOWNBURSTS CONDITIONAL UPON THE PRESENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION. HIGHS
TODAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S...WARMEST SOUTH. LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70F. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

RIDGING ALOFT WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING
FRI/FRI NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OVER THE REGION
WILL INTRODUCE A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES...INCLUDING A POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
HYBRID CAD AND ELEVATED CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME WILL MAKE LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THOUGH ADDITIONAL MODIFICATIONS
MAY BE NEEDED PER FURTHER MODEL/DATA ANALYSIS THIS MORNING. THE MOST
LIKELY CHANGES WOULD BE A DROP IN HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE N/NW
PIEDMONT AND AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF CONVECTION IN MOST
LOCATIONS...POSSIBLY EVEN FRI NIGHT WHEN FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
WEAK NOCTURNAL WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN THE PRESENCE OF PLENTIFUL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SAT-
MON... THEN BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE WAS FASTER THIS RUN WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS AND THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SLATED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASING HEAT...HUMIDITY...
AND THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT IS NOW SLATED TO
ARRIVE WED PM. THE FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH OF THE STATE THURSDAY
ALLOWING FOR COOLING FROM THE NE AGAIN THU-FRI.

UNTIL THEN... EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
WEEKEND. A CHANCE OF PM THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. HIGHS
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL (86-92) BOTH SAT-SUN. LOWS 65-70.

MON-WED... A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY... WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. HIGHS 86-92.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY WITH THE
NE FLOW LEVEL FLOW. ALSO... THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT
WITH THE FRONT INTO FAR SE NC AND SC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION
AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH/SE INTO
THE REGION THIS AFT/EVE INTO TONIGHT...OR ROUGHLY FROM 21Z THIS AFT
THROUGH 06Z FRI MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM THE VA BORDER
SOUTH TO THE INT/GSO/RDU/RWI TERMINALS.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE FRONT WILL STALL AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE REGION FRI/FRI NIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL IN
THIS PERIOD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
EVERYWHERE FRI/FRI NIGHT...OR THAT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ASSOC/W LOW
CEILINGS AND ISOLD ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD BE PRESENT LATE FRI/FRI
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...I.E. A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD AFT/EVE
CONVECTION AND EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 281115
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
715 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD FROM
VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN STALL OUT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL RESULT IN SFC PRESSURE RISES OVER THE OH
VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...DRIVING A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM
THE MASON-DIXON LINE SOUTHWARD TO THE VA/NC BORDER LATE THIS AFT/EVE
INTO TONIGHT. CENTRAL NC WILL BE SITUATED ON THE NORTH/NNE PERIPHERY
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FL TODAY...WITH THE
PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES LOCATED FURTHER NORTH IN THE MID-
ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...FORCING FOR ASCENT TODAY WILL LARGELY BE
CONFINED TO WEAK/SHALLOW CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEST-EAST BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO ALONG OR NEAR THE NC/VA
BORDER. A MOIST UPSTREAM AIRMASS (925MB TD 17-19C/H85 TD ~15C) OVER
WV/VA WILL ADVECT SOUTH/SE INTO THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON...DISPLACING THE DRY/STABLE AIRMASS PREVIOUSLY IN PLACE
AND CONTRIBUTING TO AS MUCH AS 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE DURING PEAK
HEATING. IN FACT...A WEST-EAST INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED
TO DEVELOP VERY NEAR THE HWY 64 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE VA BORDER AND THE WEAKEST NEAR THE SC
BORDER.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP...THOUGH THE BULK OF 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
DEVELOP IN VCNTY OF THE VA BORDER. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL
INDICATE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM HWY 64 NORTH TO THE VA BORDER
BETWEEN 18-04Z (1PM-MIDNIGHT)...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE
NC/VA BORDER COUNTIES. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AT <15 KT...
AND THERE WILL BE NO POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION... THOUGH
STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES...MODERATE DCAPE(750-1000 J/KG)...AND PWAT
VALUES ~1.75" SUGGEST A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF SEVERE
DOWNBURSTS CONDITIONAL UPON THE PRESENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION. HIGHS
TODAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S...WARMEST SOUTH. LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70F. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

RIDGING ALOFT WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING
FRI/FRI NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OVER THE REGION
WILL INTRODUCE A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES...INCLUDING A POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
HYBRID CAD AND ELEVATED CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME WILL MAKE LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THOUGH ADDITIONAL MODIFICATIONS
MAY BE NEEDED PER FURTHER MODEL/DATA ANALYSIS THIS MORNING. THE MOST
LIKELY CHANGES WOULD BE A DROP IN HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE N/NW
PIEDMONT AND AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF CONVECTION IN MOST
LOCATIONS...POSSIBLY EVEN FRI NIGHT WHEN FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
WEAK NOCTURNAL WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN THE PRESENCE OF PLENTIFUL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SAT-
MON... THEN BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE WAS FASTER THIS RUN WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS AND THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SLATED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASING HEAT...HUMIDITY...
AND THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT IS NOW SLATED TO
ARRIVE WED PM. THE FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH OF THE STATE THURSDAY
ALLOWING FOR COOLING FROM THE NE AGAIN THU-FRI.

UNTIL THEN... EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
WEEKEND. A CHANCE OF PM THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. HIGHS
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL (86-92) BOTH SAT-SUN. LOWS 65-70.

MON-WED... A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY... WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. HIGHS 86-92.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY WITH THE
NE FLOW LEVEL FLOW. ALSO... THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT
WITH THE FRONT INTO FAR SE NC AND SC.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION
AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH/SE INTO
THE REGION THIS AFT/EVE INTO TONIGHT...OR ROUGHLY FROM 21Z THIS AFT
THROUGH 06Z FRI MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM THE VA BORDER
SOUTH TO THE INT/GSO/RDU/RWI TERMINALS.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE FRONT WILL STALL AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE REGION FRI/FRI NIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL IN
THIS PERIOD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
EVERYWHERE FRI/FRI NIGHT...OR THAT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ASSOC/W LOW
CEILINGS AND ISOLD ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD BE PRESENT LATE FRI/FRI
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...I.E. A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD AFT/EVE
CONVECTION AND EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 280727
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
327 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD FROM
VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN STALL OUT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL RESULT IN SFC PRESSURE RISES OVER THE OH
VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...DRIVING A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM
THE MASON-DIXON LINE SOUTHWARD TO THE VA/NC BORDER LATE THIS AFT/EVE
INTO TONIGHT. CENTRAL NC WILL BE SITUATED ON THE NORTH/NNE PERIPHERY
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FL TODAY...WITH THE
PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES LOCATED FURTHER NORTH IN THE MID-
ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...FORCING FOR ASCENT TODAY WILL LARGELY BE
CONFINED TO WEAK/SHALLOW CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEST-EAST BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO ALONG OR NEAR THE NC/VA
BORDER. A MOIST UPSTREAM AIRMASS (925MB TD 17-19C/H85 TD ~15C) OVER
WV/VA WILL ADVECT SOUTH/SE INTO THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON...DISPLACING THE DRY/STABLE AIRMASS PREVIOUSLY IN PLACE
AND CONTRIBUTING TO AS MUCH AS 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE DURING PEAK
HEATING. IN FACT...A WEST-EAST INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED
TO DEVELOP VERY NEAR THE HWY 64 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE VA BORDER AND THE WEAKEST NEAR THE SC
BORDER.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP...THOUGH THE BULK OF 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
DEVELOP IN VCNTY OF THE VA BORDER. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL
INDICATE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM HWY 64 NORTH TO THE VA BORDER
BETWEEN 18-04Z (1PM-MIDNIGHT)...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE
NC/VA BORDER COUNTIES. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AT <15 KT...
AND THERE WILL BE NO POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION... THOUGH
STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES...MODERATE DCAPE(750-1000 J/KG)...AND PWAT
VALUES ~1.75" SUGGEST A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF SEVERE
DOWNBURSTS CONDITIONAL UPON THE PRESENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION. HIGHS
TODAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S...WARMEST SOUTH. LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70F. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

RIDGING ALOFT WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING
FRI/FRI NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OVER THE REGION
WILL INTRODUCE A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES...INCLUDING A POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
HYBRID CAD AND ELEVATED CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME WILL MAKE LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THOUGH ADDITIONAL MODIFICATIONS
MAY BE NEEDED PER FURTHER MODEL/DATA ANALYSIS THIS MORNING. THE MOST
LIKELY CHANGES WOULD BE A DROP IN HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE N/NW
PIEDMONT AND AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF CONVECTION IN MOST
LOCATIONS. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SAT-
MON... THEN BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE WAS FASTER THIS RUN WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS AND THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SLATED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASING HEAT...HUMIDITY...
AND THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT IS NOW SLATED TO
ARRIVE WED PM. THE FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH OF THE STATE THURSDAY
ALLOWING FOR COOLING FROM THE NE AGAIN THU-FRI.

UNTIL THEN... EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
WEEKEND. A CHANCE OF PM THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. HIGHS
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL (86-92) BOTH SAT-SUN. LOWS 65-70.

MON-WED... A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY... WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. HIGHS 86-92.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY WITH THE
NE FLOW LEVEL FLOW. ALSO... THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT
WITH THE FRONT INTO FAR SE NC AND SC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION
AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH/SE INTO
THE REGION LATE TODAY/TONIGHT...OR ROUGHLY FROM 21Z THIS AFT THROUGH
06Z FRI MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE INT/GSO/RDU/RWI TERMINALS.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE FRONT WILL STALL AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE REGION FRI/FRI NIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL IN
THIS PERIOD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
EVERYWHERE FRI/FRI NIGHT...OR THAT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ASSOC/W LOW
CEILINGS AND ISOLD ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD BE PRESENT LATE FRI/FRI
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...I.E. A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD AFT/EVE
CONVECTION AND EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 280727
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
327 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD FROM
VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN STALL OUT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
NEW ENGLAND TODAY WILL RESULT IN SFC PRESSURE RISES OVER THE OH
VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...DRIVING A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM
THE MASON-DIXON LINE SOUTHWARD TO THE VA/NC BORDER LATE THIS AFT/EVE
INTO TONIGHT. CENTRAL NC WILL BE SITUATED ON THE NORTH/NNE PERIPHERY
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FL TODAY...WITH THE
PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES LOCATED FURTHER NORTH IN THE MID-
ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...FORCING FOR ASCENT TODAY WILL LARGELY BE
CONFINED TO WEAK/SHALLOW CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEST-EAST BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO ALONG OR NEAR THE NC/VA
BORDER. A MOIST UPSTREAM AIRMASS (925MB TD 17-19C/H85 TD ~15C) OVER
WV/VA WILL ADVECT SOUTH/SE INTO THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON...DISPLACING THE DRY/STABLE AIRMASS PREVIOUSLY IN PLACE
AND CONTRIBUTING TO AS MUCH AS 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE DURING PEAK
HEATING. IN FACT...A WEST-EAST INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED
TO DEVELOP VERY NEAR THE HWY 64 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE VA BORDER AND THE WEAKEST NEAR THE SC
BORDER.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP...THOUGH THE BULK OF 00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
DEVELOP IN VCNTY OF THE VA BORDER. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL
INDICATE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM HWY 64 NORTH TO THE VA BORDER
BETWEEN 18-04Z (1PM-MIDNIGHT)...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE
NC/VA BORDER COUNTIES. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AT <15 KT...
AND THERE WILL BE NO POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION... THOUGH
STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES...MODERATE DCAPE(750-1000 J/KG)...AND PWAT
VALUES ~1.75" SUGGEST A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF SEVERE
DOWNBURSTS CONDITIONAL UPON THE PRESENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION. HIGHS
TODAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S...WARMEST SOUTH. LOWS
TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70F. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

RIDGING ALOFT WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING
FRI/FRI NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OVER THE REGION
WILL INTRODUCE A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES...INCLUDING A POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
HYBRID CAD AND ELEVATED CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME WILL MAKE LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THOUGH ADDITIONAL MODIFICATIONS
MAY BE NEEDED PER FURTHER MODEL/DATA ANALYSIS THIS MORNING. THE MOST
LIKELY CHANGES WOULD BE A DROP IN HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE N/NW
PIEDMONT AND AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF CONVECTION IN MOST
LOCATIONS. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SAT-
MON... THEN BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE WAS FASTER THIS RUN WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS AND THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SLATED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASING HEAT...HUMIDITY...
AND THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT IS NOW SLATED TO
ARRIVE WED PM. THE FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH OF THE STATE THURSDAY
ALLOWING FOR COOLING FROM THE NE AGAIN THU-FRI.

UNTIL THEN... EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
WEEKEND. A CHANCE OF PM THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. HIGHS
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL (86-92) BOTH SAT-SUN. LOWS 65-70.

MON-WED... A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY... WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. HIGHS 86-92.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY WITH THE
NE FLOW LEVEL FLOW. ALSO... THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT
WITH THE FRONT INTO FAR SE NC AND SC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION
AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH/SE INTO
THE REGION LATE TODAY/TONIGHT...OR ROUGHLY FROM 21Z THIS AFT THROUGH
06Z FRI MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE INT/GSO/RDU/RWI TERMINALS.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE FRONT WILL STALL AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE REGION FRI/FRI NIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL IN
THIS PERIOD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
EVERYWHERE FRI/FRI NIGHT...OR THAT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ASSOC/W LOW
CEILINGS AND ISOLD ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD BE PRESENT LATE FRI/FRI
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...I.E. A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD AFT/EVE
CONVECTION AND EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 280654
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SETTLE
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE THU AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND GIVE WAY TO A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. STARTING TO SEE SOME
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
VIRGINIA...BUT THE FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH
STRETCHES ACROSS KY/WV/PA...ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THEY CROSS
THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.   NOT A LOT OF HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...SO IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE.  MAY SEE SOME RURAL AREAS IN THE UPPER
50S...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS BEGINNING TO CREEP UP FROM THE
NORTH...SHOULD SEE MORE LOWER 60S THAN NIGHTS PAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME MOISTURE POOLING ALONG
THE FRONT...HOWEVER OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RATHER LOW AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A WESTERLY COMPONENT. THIS
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT IS RATHER MINIMAL GIVEN
THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED TO STAY AROUND OR BELOW 20
KNOTS. HOWEVER... THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY (ALTHOUGH IT STILL SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW). NEVERTHELESS...THE GFS DOES
SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AND IF A STORM IS ABLE TO GROW DEEP ENOUGH...
IT COULD PRODUCE A STRONG WIND GUST GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE ANOTHER 10-15M ON
THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS SURGING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S (ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW). THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW. MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
AND MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MILDER OVERNIGHT LOW (RELATIVE TO
PREVIOUS NIGHTS)...WITH MOSTLY UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
DIABATIC HEATING FROM STRONG INSOLATION WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT THE
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE INVOF THE NC/VA BORDER...BUT NOT BEFORE SERVING
AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND H8 (1430M AND 18-19C RESPECTIVELY)ARE
PROGGED TO BE ON PAR TO THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...

UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SAT-
MON... THEN BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE WAS FASTER THIS RUN WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS AND THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW SLATED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE INCREASING HEAT...HUMIDITY...
AND THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN WILL
LIKELY LAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT IS NOW SLATED TO
ARRIVE WED PM. THE FRONT SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH OF THE STATE THURSDAY
ALLOWING FOR COOLING FROM THE NE AGAIN THU-FRI.

UNTIL THEN... EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
WEEKEND. A CHANCE OF PM THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. HIGHS
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL (86-92) BOTH SAT-SUN. LOWS 65-70.

MON-WED... A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY... WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. HIGHS 86-92.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY WITH THE
NE FLOW LEVEL FLOW. ALSO... THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT
WITH THE FRONT INTO FAR SE NC AND SC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION
AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH/SE INTO
THE REGION LATE TODAY/TONIGHT...OR ROUGHLY FROM 21Z THIS AFT THROUGH
06Z FRI MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE INT/GSO/RDU/RWI TERMINALS.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE FRONT WILL STALL AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE REGION FRI/FRI NIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL IN
THIS PERIOD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
EVERYWHERE FRI/FRI NIGHT...OR THAT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ASSOC/W LOW
CEILINGS AND ISOLD ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD BE PRESENT LATE FRI/FRI
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...I.E. A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD AFT/EVE
CONVECTION AND EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KRD/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 280537
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
136 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SETTLE
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE THU AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND GIVE WAY TO A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. STARTING TO SEE SOME
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
VIRGINIA...BUT THE FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH
STRETCHES ACROSS KY/WV/PA...ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THEY CROSS
THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.   NOT A LOT OF HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...SO IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE.  MAY SEE SOME RURAL AREAS IN THE UPPER
50S...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS BEGINNING TO CREEP UP FROM THE
NORTH...SHOULD SEE MORE LOWER 60S THAN NIGHTS PAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME MOISTURE POOLING ALONG
THE FRONT...HOWEVER OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RATHER LOW AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A WESTERLY COMPONENT. THIS
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT IS RATHER MINIMAL GIVEN
THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED TO STAY AROUND OR BELOW 20
KNOTS. HOWEVER... THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY (ALTHOUGH IT STILL SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW). NEVERTHELESS...THE GFS DOES
SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AND IF A STORM IS ABLE TO GROW DEEP ENOUGH...
IT COULD PRODUCE A STRONG WIND GUST GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE ANOTHER 10-15M ON
THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS SURGING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S (ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW). THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW. MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
AND MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MILDER OVERNIGHT LOW (RELATIVE TO
PREVIOUS NIGHTS)...WITH MOSTLY UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
DIABATIC HEATING FROM STRONG INSOLATION WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT THE
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE INVOF THE NC/VA BORDER...BUT NOT BEFORE SERVING
AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND H8 (1430M AND 18-19C RESPECTIVELY)ARE
PROGGED TO BE ON PAR TO THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL
REMAIN A FORMIDABLE PLAYER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
ACTING TO LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ON SATURDAY WITH A
CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

BY SUNDAY...AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD
AND OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE VIA RING OF FIRE
CONVECTION PATTERN. RAIN CHANCES RETURN CWA WIDE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...UNDER WEAKENING HEIGHTS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WITH
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION FIRING ALONG A THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THE GFS REMAINS ON THE FAST SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHILE
THE EC IS NEARLY A FULL DAY BEHIND. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE SLOWER
TIMING...KEEPING CHANCE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION
AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH/SE INTO
THE REGION LATE TODAY/TONIGHT...OR ROUGHLY FROM 21Z THIS AFT THROUGH
06Z FRI MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE INT/GSO/RDU/RWI TERMINALS.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE FRONT WILL STALL AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE REGION FRI/FRI NIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL IN
THIS PERIOD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
EVERYWHERE FRI/FRI NIGHT...OR THAT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ASSOC/W LOW
CEILINGS AND ISOLD ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD BE PRESENT LATE FRI/FRI
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...I.E. A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD AFT/EVE
CONVECTION AND EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KRD/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 280537
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
136 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SETTLE
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE THU AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND GIVE WAY TO A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. STARTING TO SEE SOME
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
VIRGINIA...BUT THE FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH
STRETCHES ACROSS KY/WV/PA...ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THEY CROSS
THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.   NOT A LOT OF HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...SO IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE.  MAY SEE SOME RURAL AREAS IN THE UPPER
50S...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS BEGINNING TO CREEP UP FROM THE
NORTH...SHOULD SEE MORE LOWER 60S THAN NIGHTS PAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME MOISTURE POOLING ALONG
THE FRONT...HOWEVER OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RATHER LOW AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A WESTERLY COMPONENT. THIS
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT IS RATHER MINIMAL GIVEN
THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED TO STAY AROUND OR BELOW 20
KNOTS. HOWEVER... THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY (ALTHOUGH IT STILL SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW). NEVERTHELESS...THE GFS DOES
SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AND IF A STORM IS ABLE TO GROW DEEP ENOUGH...
IT COULD PRODUCE A STRONG WIND GUST GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE ANOTHER 10-15M ON
THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS SURGING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S (ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW). THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW. MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
AND MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MILDER OVERNIGHT LOW (RELATIVE TO
PREVIOUS NIGHTS)...WITH MOSTLY UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
DIABATIC HEATING FROM STRONG INSOLATION WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT THE
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE INVOF THE NC/VA BORDER...BUT NOT BEFORE SERVING
AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND H8 (1430M AND 18-19C RESPECTIVELY)ARE
PROGGED TO BE ON PAR TO THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL
REMAIN A FORMIDABLE PLAYER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
ACTING TO LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ON SATURDAY WITH A
CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

BY SUNDAY...AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD
AND OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE VIA RING OF FIRE
CONVECTION PATTERN. RAIN CHANCES RETURN CWA WIDE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...UNDER WEAKENING HEIGHTS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WITH
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION FIRING ALONG A THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THE GFS REMAINS ON THE FAST SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHILE
THE EC IS NEARLY A FULL DAY BEHIND. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE SLOWER
TIMING...KEEPING CHANCE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION
AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH/SE INTO
THE REGION LATE TODAY/TONIGHT...OR ROUGHLY FROM 21Z THIS AFT THROUGH
06Z FRI MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE INT/GSO/RDU/RWI TERMINALS.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE FRONT WILL STALL AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE REGION FRI/FRI NIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL IN
THIS PERIOD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
EVERYWHERE FRI/FRI NIGHT...OR THAT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ASSOC/W LOW
CEILINGS AND ISOLD ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD BE PRESENT LATE FRI/FRI
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY SAT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...I.E. A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD AFT/EVE
CONVECTION AND EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KRD/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 280217
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1010 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SETTLE
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE THU AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND GIVE WAY TO A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. STARTING TO SEE SOME
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
VIRGINIA...BUT THE FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH
STRETCHES ACROSS KY/WV/PA...ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THEY CROSS
THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.   NOT A LOT OF HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...SO IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE.  MAY SEE SOME RURAL AREAS IN THE UPPER
50S...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS BEGINNING TO CREEP UP FROM THE
NORTH...SHOULD SEE MORE LOWER 60S THAN NIGHTS PAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME MOISTURE POOLING ALONG
THE FRONT...HOWEVER OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RATHER LOW AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A WESTERLY COMPONENT. THIS
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT IS RATHER MINIMAL GIVEN
THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED TO STAY AROUND OR BELOW 20
KNOTS. HOWEVER... THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY (ALTHOUGH IT STILL SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW). NEVERTHELESS...THE GFS DOES
SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AND IF A STORM IS ABLE TO GROW DEEP ENOUGH...
IT COULD PRODUCE A STRONG WIND GUST GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE ANOTHER 10-15M ON
THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS SURGING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S (ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW). THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW. MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
AND MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MILDER OVERNIGHT LOW (RELATIVE TO
PREVIOUS NIGHTS)...WITH MOSTLY UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
DIABATIC HEATING FROM STRONG INSOLATION WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT THE
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE INVOF THE NC/VA BORDER...BUT NOT BEFORE SERVING
AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND H8 (1430M AND 18-19C RESPECTIVELY)ARE
PROGGED TO BE ON PAR TO THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL
REMAIN A FORMIDABLE PLAYER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
ACTING TO LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ON SATURDAY WITH A
CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

BY SUNDAY...AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD
AND OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE VIA RING OF FIRE
CONVECTION PATTERN. RAIN CHANCES RETURN CWA WIDE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...UNDER WEAKENING HEIGHTS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WITH
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION FIRING ALONG A THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THE GFS REMAINS ON THE FAST SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHILE
THE EC IS NEARLY A FULL DAY BEHIND. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE SLOWER
TIMING...KEEPING CHANCE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM WEDNESDAY...

VFR. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAKENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...CLEAR AND GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WILL YIELD TO SCT TO BRIEFLY BKN 4-7 THOUSAND FT CLOUD BASES
AND A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST SFC WIND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...ON THU. AN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWER OR STORM MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AT NORTHERN TERMINALS
BETWEEN 22Z THU AND 04Z FRI.

OUTLOOK: SFC WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT THU NIGHT;
AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS IN
NNE POST-FRONTAL FLOW FRI MORNING...MAINLY AT NORTHERN SITES. SCT TO
BKN HIGH MVFR-RANGE TO LOW-VFR RANGE CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...OWING TO THE STALL OF THE FRONT IN
THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY SAT. THE PROBABILITY OF
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
ASSUMES A MORE SOUTHERLY (MOIST) COMPONENT WITH THE DISSIPATION/
NORTHWARD RETREAT OF THE FRONT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KRD/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 280217
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1010 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SETTLE
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE THU AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND GIVE WAY TO A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. STARTING TO SEE SOME
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
VIRGINIA...BUT THE FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH
STRETCHES ACROSS KY/WV/PA...ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THEY CROSS
THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.   NOT A LOT OF HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...SO IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL
PASSES WELL OFFSHORE.  MAY SEE SOME RURAL AREAS IN THE UPPER
50S...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS BEGINNING TO CREEP UP FROM THE
NORTH...SHOULD SEE MORE LOWER 60S THAN NIGHTS PAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME MOISTURE POOLING ALONG
THE FRONT...HOWEVER OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RATHER LOW AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A WESTERLY COMPONENT. THIS
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT IS RATHER MINIMAL GIVEN
THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED TO STAY AROUND OR BELOW 20
KNOTS. HOWEVER... THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY (ALTHOUGH IT STILL SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW). NEVERTHELESS...THE GFS DOES
SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AND IF A STORM IS ABLE TO GROW DEEP ENOUGH...
IT COULD PRODUCE A STRONG WIND GUST GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE ANOTHER 10-15M ON
THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS SURGING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S (ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW). THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW. MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
AND MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MILDER OVERNIGHT LOW (RELATIVE TO
PREVIOUS NIGHTS)...WITH MOSTLY UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
DIABATIC HEATING FROM STRONG INSOLATION WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT THE
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE INVOF THE NC/VA BORDER...BUT NOT BEFORE SERVING
AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND H8 (1430M AND 18-19C RESPECTIVELY)ARE
PROGGED TO BE ON PAR TO THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL
REMAIN A FORMIDABLE PLAYER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
ACTING TO LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ON SATURDAY WITH A
CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

BY SUNDAY...AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD
AND OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE VIA RING OF FIRE
CONVECTION PATTERN. RAIN CHANCES RETURN CWA WIDE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...UNDER WEAKENING HEIGHTS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WITH
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION FIRING ALONG A THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THE GFS REMAINS ON THE FAST SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHILE
THE EC IS NEARLY A FULL DAY BEHIND. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE SLOWER
TIMING...KEEPING CHANCE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM WEDNESDAY...

VFR. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAKENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...CLEAR AND GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WILL YIELD TO SCT TO BRIEFLY BKN 4-7 THOUSAND FT CLOUD BASES
AND A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST SFC WIND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...ON THU. AN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWER OR STORM MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AT NORTHERN TERMINALS
BETWEEN 22Z THU AND 04Z FRI.

OUTLOOK: SFC WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT THU NIGHT;
AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS IN
NNE POST-FRONTAL FLOW FRI MORNING...MAINLY AT NORTHERN SITES. SCT TO
BKN HIGH MVFR-RANGE TO LOW-VFR RANGE CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...OWING TO THE STALL OF THE FRONT IN
THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY SAT. THE PROBABILITY OF
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
ASSUMES A MORE SOUTHERLY (MOIST) COMPONENT WITH THE DISSIPATION/
NORTHWARD RETREAT OF THE FRONT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KRD/BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 280052
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
852 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SETTLE
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE THU AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO GET SHUNTED TO
SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
NEVERTHELESS...ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT (AT LEAST FOR LATE AUGUST) IS
EXPECTED AS TEMPS FALL INTO LOW TO MID 60S (MAYBE SOME UPPER 50S)
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME MOISTURE POOLING ALONG
THE FRONT...HOWEVER OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RATHER LOW AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A WESTERLY COMPONENT. THIS
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT IS RATHER MINIMAL GIVEN
THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED TO STAY AROUND OR BELOW 20
KNOTS. HOWEVER... THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY (ALTHOUGH IT STILL SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW). NEVERTHELESS...THE GFS DOES
SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AND IF A STORM IS ABLE TO GROW DEEP ENOUGH...
IT COULD PRODUCE A STRONG WIND GUST GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE ANOTHER 10-15M ON
THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS SURGING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S (ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW). THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW. MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
AND MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MILDER OVERNIGHT LOW (RELATIVE TO
PREVIOUS NIGHTS)...WITH MOSTLY UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
DIABATIC HEATING FROM STRONG INSOLATION WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT THE
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE INVOF THE NC/VA BORDER...BUT NOT BEFORE SERVING
AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND H8 (1430M AND 18-19C RESPECTIVELY)ARE
PROGGED TO BE ON PAR TO THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL
REMAIN A FORMIDABLE PLAYER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
ACTING TO LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ON SATURDAY WITH A
CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

BY SUNDAY...AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD
AND OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE VIA RING OF FIRE
CONVECTION PATTERN. RAIN CHANCES RETURN CWA WIDE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...UNDER WEAKENING HEIGHTS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WITH
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION FIRING ALONG A THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THE GFS REMAINS ON THE FAST SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHILE
THE EC IS NEARLY A FULL DAY BEHIND. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE SLOWER
TIMING...KEEPING CHANCE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM WEDNESDAY...

VFR. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAKENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...CLEAR AND GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WILL YIELD TO SCT TO BRIEFLY BKN 4-7 THOUSAND FT CLOUD BASES
AND A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST SFC WIND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...ON THU. AN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWER OR STORM MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AT NORTHERN TERMINALS
BETWEEN 22Z THU AND 04Z FRI.

OUTLOOK: SFC WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT THU NIGHT;
AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS IN
NNE POST-FRONTAL FLOW FRI MORNING...MAINLY AT NORTHERN SITES. SCT TO
BKN HIGH MVFR-RANGE TO LOW-VFR RANGE CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...OWING TO THE STALL OF THE FRONT IN
THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY SAT. THE PROBABILITY OF
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
ASSUMES A MORE SOUTHERLY (MOIST) COMPONENT WITH THE DISSIPATION/
NORTHWARD RETREAT OF THE FRONT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 280052
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
852 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SETTLE
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC LATE THU AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO GET SHUNTED TO
SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
NEVERTHELESS...ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT (AT LEAST FOR LATE AUGUST) IS
EXPECTED AS TEMPS FALL INTO LOW TO MID 60S (MAYBE SOME UPPER 50S)
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME MOISTURE POOLING ALONG
THE FRONT...HOWEVER OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RATHER LOW AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A WESTERLY COMPONENT. THIS
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT IS RATHER MINIMAL GIVEN
THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED TO STAY AROUND OR BELOW 20
KNOTS. HOWEVER... THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY (ALTHOUGH IT STILL SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW). NEVERTHELESS...THE GFS DOES
SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AND IF A STORM IS ABLE TO GROW DEEP ENOUGH...
IT COULD PRODUCE A STRONG WIND GUST GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE ANOTHER 10-15M ON
THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS SURGING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S (ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW). THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW. MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
AND MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MILDER OVERNIGHT LOW (RELATIVE TO
PREVIOUS NIGHTS)...WITH MOSTLY UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
DIABATIC HEATING FROM STRONG INSOLATION WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT THE
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE INVOF THE NC/VA BORDER...BUT NOT BEFORE SERVING
AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND H8 (1430M AND 18-19C RESPECTIVELY)ARE
PROGGED TO BE ON PAR TO THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL
REMAIN A FORMIDABLE PLAYER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
ACTING TO LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ON SATURDAY WITH A
CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

BY SUNDAY...AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD
AND OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE VIA RING OF FIRE
CONVECTION PATTERN. RAIN CHANCES RETURN CWA WIDE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...UNDER WEAKENING HEIGHTS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WITH
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION FIRING ALONG A THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THE GFS REMAINS ON THE FAST SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHILE
THE EC IS NEARLY A FULL DAY BEHIND. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE SLOWER
TIMING...KEEPING CHANCE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM WEDNESDAY...

VFR. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAKENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...CLEAR AND GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WILL YIELD TO SCT TO BRIEFLY BKN 4-7 THOUSAND FT CLOUD BASES
AND A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST SFC WIND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...ON THU. AN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWER OR STORM MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AT NORTHERN TERMINALS
BETWEEN 22Z THU AND 04Z FRI.

OUTLOOK: SFC WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT THU NIGHT;
AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS IN
NNE POST-FRONTAL FLOW FRI MORNING...MAINLY AT NORTHERN SITES. SCT TO
BKN HIGH MVFR-RANGE TO LOW-VFR RANGE CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...OWING TO THE STALL OF THE FRONT IN
THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY SAT. THE PROBABILITY OF
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
ASSUMES A MORE SOUTHERLY (MOIST) COMPONENT WITH THE DISSIPATION/
NORTHWARD RETREAT OF THE FRONT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 271854
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
254 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NC THU AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO GET SHUNTED TO
SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
NEVERTHELESS...ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT (AT LEAST FOR LATE AUGUST) IS
EXPECTED AS TEMPS FALL INTO LOW TO MID 60S (MAYBE SOME UPPER 50S)
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME MOISTURE POOLING ALONG
THE FRONT...HOWEVER OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RATHER LOW AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A WESTERLY COMPONENT. THIS
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT IS RATHER MINIMAL GIVEN
THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGGED TO STAY AROUND OR BELOW 20
KNOTS. HOWEVER... THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY (ALTHOUGH IT STILL SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW). NEVERTHELESS...THE GFS DOES
SHOW SOME INSTABILITY AND IF A STORM IS ABLE TO GROW DEEP ENOUGH...
IT COULD PRODUCE A STRONG WIND GUST GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE ANOTHER 10-15M ON
THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS SURGING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S (ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRY DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW). THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES ARE RATHER LOW. MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
AND MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MILDER OVERNIGHT LOW (RELATIVE TO
PREVIOUS NIGHTS)...WITH MOSTLY UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
DIABATIC HEATING FROM STRONG INSOLATION WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT THE
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE INVOF THE NC/VA BORDER...BUT NOT BEFORE SERVING
AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND H8 (1430M AND 18-19C RESPECTIVELY)ARE
PROGGED TO BE ON PAR TO THURSDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE/BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL
REMAIN A FORMIDABLE PLAYER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WARM AIR ALOFT
ACTING TO LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION ON SATURDAY WITH A
CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

BY SUNDAY...AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD
AND OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE VIA RING OF FIRE
CONVECTION PATTERN. RAIN CHANCES RETURN CWA WIDE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...UNDER WEAKENING HEIGHTS AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WITH
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION FIRING ALONG A THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

THE GFS REMAINS ON THE FAST SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHILE
THE EC IS NEARLY A FULL DAY BEHIND. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE SLOWER
TIMING...KEEPING CHANCE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. SOMEWHAT HIGHER NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
(STILL JUST AROUND 10 KNOTS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST) WILL SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG
AND/OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEN...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY RESULT IN INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATE THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...IT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS (MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA). IN ADDITION...THE
FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN COULD
TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. THEN...PATCHY EARLY MORNING
FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...THUS INCREASING THE MOISTURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/MWS
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 271739
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
139 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC THU
AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1045 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE EARLY MORNING STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EAST HAS BURNED
OFF QUICKLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND HAS LEFT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN ITS WAKE. OTHERWISE...HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST (BUT WELL OFFSHORE)...LEAVING
CENTRAL NC ON THE DRY SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE STORM. THIS ALONG WITH
THE FACT THAT PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH...ANOTHER DRY AND
PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED. WITH MAX LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
PROGGED TO BE 15-20M HIGHER TODAY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGREES
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THEREFORE...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 80S
ARE EXPECTED. -KRD

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE CORE OF THE LOWER PW`S ARE FORECAST TO
DRIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH... ASSOCIATED WITH THE
S/W TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ABSORB HURRICANE CRISTOBAL AND SWEEP
HIM QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST (AWAY FROM ANY COASTAL AREAS IN THE
U.S.). LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COMFORTABLE FOR LATE AUGUST IN
CENTRAL NC... BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S... MAYBE EVEN A
FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE UPPER 50S.

THURSDAY: THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER... WITH
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM WE SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S (AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES... POOLING ALONG IT). THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... WE SHOULD WARM UP NICELY ON
THURSDAY... WITH THE WSW TO W`ERLY FLOW. THUS... EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. WRT A SEVERE THREAT... SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE LOW... GIVEN THE RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY...
THANKS TO THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO
MOIST AND CONSEQUENTLY GENERATES TOO MUCH INSTABILITY AS NOTED IN
THE PREVIOUS AFD FOR THE PATTERN. IN ADDITION... DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK... ~20KTS OR SO. THUS... WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED IN THE SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IN ANYWAY. IF WE GET A
DECENT STORM DEVELOP THOUGH IT WOULD HAVE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
THANKS TO THE DRY DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...

BACKDOOR FRONT PROJECTED TO STALL IN VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY DISSOLVE
ON FRIDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY AID TO
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH-EAST
OF RDU...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM POSSIBLE OVER THE SAME
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUILDING MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ELSEWHERE. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES STILL AVERAGING 10M ABOVE
NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 60S-AROUND 70
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY...PRESENCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT. STILL EXPECT AN EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN THE INCREASE...WITH SOME GROWTH TO THE CU UNTIL IT HITS
THE INVERSION. MODEL GUIDANCE PLACES THE 700MB ANTI-CYCLONE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. THIS FAVORABLE PLACEMENT SUGGEST MAX TEMPS BACK IN THE 90-
95 DEGREE RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER
70S.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN WITH
TIME. INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE BULK
OF BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WEST-NW OF
OUR REGION...WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK-MODERATE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. MAY SEE CONVECTION BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED/ORGANIZED MONDAY AND MORE SO TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. (GFS AS MUCH AS 12=18
HOURS FASTER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. PER INITIALIZATION TONIGHT OFF
TEH PACIFIC NW...SLOWER ECMWF PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.) RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY
AS AIR MASS WILL BECOME TROPICAL-LIKE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
PREDICTED TO RETURN TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. OUR
STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ITO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S NW-LOWER 90S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD. SOMEWHAT HIGHER NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
(STILL JUST AROUND 10 KNOTS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST) WILL SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM.
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG
AND/OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THEN...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
MAY RESULT IN INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATE THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...IT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS (MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA). IN ADDITION...THE
FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN COULD
TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. THEN...PATCHY EARLY MORNING
FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...THUS INCREASING THE MOISTURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/MWS
NEAR TERM...KRD/BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 271446
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1046 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC THU
AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1045 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE EARLY MORNING STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EAST HAS BURNED
OFF QUICKLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND HAS LEFT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN ITS WAKE. OTHERWISE...HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST (BUT WELL OFFSHORE)...LEAVING
CENTRAL NC ON THE DRY SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE STORM. THIS ALONG WITH
THE FACT THAT PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH...ANOTHER DRY AND
PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED. WITH MAX LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
PROGGED TO BE 15-20M HIGHER TODAY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGREES
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THEREFORE...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 80S
ARE EXPECTED. -KRD

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE CORE OF THE LOWER PW`S ARE FORECAST TO
DRIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH... ASSOCIATED WITH THE
S/W TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ABSORB HURRICANE CRISTOBAL AND SWEEP
HIM QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST (AWAY FROM ANY COASTAL AREAS IN THE
U.S.). LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COMFORTABLE FOR LATE AUGUST IN
CENTRAL NC... BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S... MAYBE EVEN A
FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE UPPER 50S.

THURSDAY: THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER... WITH
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM WE SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S (AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES... POOLING ALONG IT). THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... WE SHOULD WARM UP NICELY ON
THURSDAY... WITH THE WSW TO W`ERLY FLOW. THUS... EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. WRT A SEVERE THREAT... SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE LOW... GIVEN THE RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY...
THANKS TO THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO
MOIST AND CONSEQUENTLY GENERATES TOO MUCH INSTABILITY AS NOTED IN
THE PREVIOUS AFD FOR THE PATTERN. IN ADDITION... DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK... ~20KTS OR SO. THUS... WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED IN THE SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IN ANYWAY. IF WE GET A
DECENT STORM DEVELOP THOUGH IT WOULD HAVE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
THANKS TO THE DRY DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...

BACKDOOR FRONT PROJECTED TO STALL IN VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY DISSOLVE
ON FRIDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY AID TO
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH-EAST
OF RDU...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM POSSIBLE OVER THE SAME
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUILDING MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ELSEWHERE. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES STILL AVERAGING 10M ABOVE
NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 60S-AROUND 70
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY...PRESENCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT. STILL EXPECT AN EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN THE INCREASE...WITH SOME GROWTH TO THE CU UNTIL IT HITS
THE INVERSION. MODEL GUIDANCE PLACES THE 700MB ANTI-CYCLONE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. THIS FAVORABLE PLACEMENT SUGGEST MAX TEMPS BACK IN THE 90-
95 DEGREE RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER
70S.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN WITH
TIME. INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE BULK
OF BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WEST-NW OF
OUR REGION...WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK-MODERATE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. MAY SEE CONVECTION BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED/ORGANIZED MONDAY AND MORE SO TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. (GFS AS MUCH AS 12=18
HOURS FASTER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. PER INITIALIZATION TONIGHT OFF
TEH PACIFIC NW...SLOWER ECMWF PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.) RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY
AS AIR MASS WILL BECOME TROPICAL-LIKE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
PREDICTED TO RETURN TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. OUR
STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ITO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S NW-LOWER 90S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BETWEEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND HURRICANE CRISTOBAL
OFFSHORE...WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER... AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS
DEVELOPED/MOVED INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...
CREATING LIFR CONDITIONS AT KRWI. THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS
EXPANDING WEST AND SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE
THAT IT WILL REACH KFAY AND/OR KRDU BEFORE IT BEGINS TO LIFT IS LOW
TO MODERATE. THINK WE WILL STILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATOCUMULUS
THIS MORNING FROM THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVEL NE TO NNE LOW LEVEL
FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AT KRDU AND KFAY THOUGH. EXPECT
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY MID TO LATE MORNING...
WITH VFR EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE... A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC WIND IS EXPECTED TODAY
(5-10 KTS). HOWEVER... THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS (8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID-UPPER
TEENS KTS... MAINLY AT KFAY/KRWI) AT EASTERN SITES MID-MORNING TO
MIDDAY TODAY...WHERE THE MSLP PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RESIDUALLY
TIGHT EARLY IN THE DAY...BETWEEN THE OVERHEAD SFC HIGH AND THE
OFFSHORE HURRICANE.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT. THUS... DO NOT EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF IFR/LIFR
MORNING FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS ON THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME MVFR VISBYS AT KRWI IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS OF THURSDAY... THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK: THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN A SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM THU AND FRI...AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS IN BRIEF NE
FLOW THU NIGHT FROM KRWI AND ESPECIALLY POINTS NORTHEASTWARD... INTO
NE NC AND TIDEWATER VA. THE PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSUMES A MORE
SOUTHERLY (MOIST) COMPONENT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/MWS
NEAR TERM...KRD/BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 271446
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1046 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC THU
AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1045 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE EARLY MORNING STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EAST HAS BURNED
OFF QUICKLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND HAS LEFT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN ITS WAKE. OTHERWISE...HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST (BUT WELL OFFSHORE)...LEAVING
CENTRAL NC ON THE DRY SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE STORM. THIS ALONG WITH
THE FACT THAT PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH...ANOTHER DRY AND
PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED. WITH MAX LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
PROGGED TO BE 15-20M HIGHER TODAY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGREES
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THEREFORE...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 80S
ARE EXPECTED. -KRD

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE CORE OF THE LOWER PW`S ARE FORECAST TO
DRIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH... ASSOCIATED WITH THE
S/W TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ABSORB HURRICANE CRISTOBAL AND SWEEP
HIM QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST (AWAY FROM ANY COASTAL AREAS IN THE
U.S.). LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COMFORTABLE FOR LATE AUGUST IN
CENTRAL NC... BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S... MAYBE EVEN A
FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE UPPER 50S.

THURSDAY: THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER... WITH
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM WE SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S (AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES... POOLING ALONG IT). THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... WE SHOULD WARM UP NICELY ON
THURSDAY... WITH THE WSW TO W`ERLY FLOW. THUS... EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. WRT A SEVERE THREAT... SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE LOW... GIVEN THE RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY...
THANKS TO THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO
MOIST AND CONSEQUENTLY GENERATES TOO MUCH INSTABILITY AS NOTED IN
THE PREVIOUS AFD FOR THE PATTERN. IN ADDITION... DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK... ~20KTS OR SO. THUS... WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED IN THE SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IN ANYWAY. IF WE GET A
DECENT STORM DEVELOP THOUGH IT WOULD HAVE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
THANKS TO THE DRY DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...

BACKDOOR FRONT PROJECTED TO STALL IN VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY DISSOLVE
ON FRIDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY AID TO
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH-EAST
OF RDU...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM POSSIBLE OVER THE SAME
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUILDING MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ELSEWHERE. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES STILL AVERAGING 10M ABOVE
NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 60S-AROUND 70
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY...PRESENCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT. STILL EXPECT AN EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN THE INCREASE...WITH SOME GROWTH TO THE CU UNTIL IT HITS
THE INVERSION. MODEL GUIDANCE PLACES THE 700MB ANTI-CYCLONE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. THIS FAVORABLE PLACEMENT SUGGEST MAX TEMPS BACK IN THE 90-
95 DEGREE RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER
70S.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN WITH
TIME. INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE BULK
OF BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WEST-NW OF
OUR REGION...WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK-MODERATE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. MAY SEE CONVECTION BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED/ORGANIZED MONDAY AND MORE SO TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. (GFS AS MUCH AS 12=18
HOURS FASTER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. PER INITIALIZATION TONIGHT OFF
TEH PACIFIC NW...SLOWER ECMWF PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.) RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY
AS AIR MASS WILL BECOME TROPICAL-LIKE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
PREDICTED TO RETURN TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. OUR
STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ITO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S NW-LOWER 90S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BETWEEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND HURRICANE CRISTOBAL
OFFSHORE...WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER... AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS
DEVELOPED/MOVED INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...
CREATING LIFR CONDITIONS AT KRWI. THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS
EXPANDING WEST AND SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE
THAT IT WILL REACH KFAY AND/OR KRDU BEFORE IT BEGINS TO LIFT IS LOW
TO MODERATE. THINK WE WILL STILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATOCUMULUS
THIS MORNING FROM THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVEL NE TO NNE LOW LEVEL
FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AT KRDU AND KFAY THOUGH. EXPECT
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY MID TO LATE MORNING...
WITH VFR EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE... A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC WIND IS EXPECTED TODAY
(5-10 KTS). HOWEVER... THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS (8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID-UPPER
TEENS KTS... MAINLY AT KFAY/KRWI) AT EASTERN SITES MID-MORNING TO
MIDDAY TODAY...WHERE THE MSLP PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RESIDUALLY
TIGHT EARLY IN THE DAY...BETWEEN THE OVERHEAD SFC HIGH AND THE
OFFSHORE HURRICANE.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT. THUS... DO NOT EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF IFR/LIFR
MORNING FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS ON THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME MVFR VISBYS AT KRWI IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS OF THURSDAY... THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK: THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN A SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM THU AND FRI...AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS IN BRIEF NE
FLOW THU NIGHT FROM KRWI AND ESPECIALLY POINTS NORTHEASTWARD... INTO
NE NC AND TIDEWATER VA. THE PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSUMES A MORE
SOUTHERLY (MOIST) COMPONENT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/MWS
NEAR TERM...KRD/BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 271038
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
638 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC THU
AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...

THIS MORNING: AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPANDING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT THIS MORNING... AND SHOWS UP
QUITE WELL ON THE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE CHANNEL. MODELS ARE NOT
HANDLING THIS WELL... BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THIS IT WILL CONTINUE
TO OOZE SOUTH AND WESTWARD OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS... THEN SLOWLY LIFT AND SCATTER THROUGH MID MORNING. AS THE
STRATUS DECK MOVES INTO A GIVEN LOCATION IT IS LOWERING AND AT SOME
SITES IS MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE GROUND... CAUSING SOME LOCALLY
DENSE FOG. WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER THIS THREAT AND WILL
MONITOR TO SEE IF A DFA IS NEEDED.

TODAY AND TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING... WILL BE PINCHED OFF TODAY AS
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL LIFTS NORTHWARD AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE. A
PINCHED OFF PIECE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NC TODAY. PW`S WILL REMAIN BELOW AND INCH TODAY... AS
THE HURRICANE PASSES TO OUR EAST LEAVING US ON THE DRY SUBSIDENCE
SIDE OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS... WITH UNSEASONABLY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME
15 TO 20 METERS TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY... HELPING TO LIMIT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FURTHER... AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... WE WILL STILL
LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
THIS MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING. AS THE MIXED LAYER
DEEPENS THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER/DISSIPATE. THIS SHOULD
YIELD HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER TODAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS NEAR
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S... A BIT LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS GUIDANCES WITH THE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS OVER FORECAST HIGH TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE CORE OF THE LOWER PW`S ARE FORECAST TO
DRIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH... ASSOCIATED WITH THE
S/W TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ABSORB HURRICANE CRISTOBAL AND SWEEP
HIM QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST (AWAY FROM ANY COASTAL AREAS IN THE
U.S.). LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COMFORTABLE FOR LATE AUGUST IN
CENTRAL NC... BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S... MAYBE EVEN A
FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE UPPER 50S.

THURSDAY: THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER... WITH
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM WE SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S (AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES... POOLING ALONG IT). THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... WE SHOULD WARM UP NICELY ON
THURSDAY... WITH THE WSW TO W`ERLY FLOW. THUS... EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. WRT A SEVERE THREAT... SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE LOW... GIVEN THE RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY...
THANKS TO THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO
MOIST AND CONSEQUENTLY GENERATES TOO MUCH INSTABILITY AS NOTED IN
THE PREVIOUS AFD FOR THE PATTERN. IN ADDITION... DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK... ~20KTS OR SO. THUS... WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED IN THE SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IN ANYWAY. IF WE GET A
DECENT STORM DEVELOP THOUGH IT WOULD HAVE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
THANKS TO THE DRY DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...

BACKDOOR FRONT PROJECTED TO STALL IN VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY DISSOLVE
ON FRIDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY AID TO
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH-EAST
OF RDU...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM POSSIBLE OVER THE SAME
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUILDING MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ELSEWHERE. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES STILL AVERAGING 10M ABOVE
NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 60S-AROUND 70
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY...PRESENCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT. STILL EXPECT AN EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN THE INCREASE...WITH SOME GROWTH TO THE CU UNTIL IT HITS
THE INVERSION. MODEL GUIDANCE PLACES THE 700MB ANTI-CYCLONE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. THIS FAVORABLE PLACEMENT SUGGEST MAX TEMPS BACK IN THE 90-
95 DEGREE RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER
70S.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN WITH
TIME. INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE BULK
OF BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WEST-NW OF
OUR REGION...WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK-MODERATE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. MAY SEE CONVECTION BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED/ORGANIZED MONDAY AND MORE SO TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. (GFS AS MUCH AS 12=18
HOURS FASTER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. PER INITIALIZATION TONIGHT OFF
TEH PACIFIC NW...SLOWER ECMWF PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.) RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY
AS AIR MASS WILL BECOME TROPICAL-LIKE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
PREDICTED TO RETURN TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. OUR
STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ITO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S NW-LOWER 90S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BETWEEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND HURRICANE CRISTOBAL
OFFSHORE...WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER... AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS
DEVELOPED/MOVED INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...
CREATING LIFR CONDITIONS AT KRWI. THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS
EXPANDING WEST AND SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE
THAT IT WILL REACH KFAY AND/OR KRDU BEFORE IT BEGINS TO LIFT IS LOW
TO MODERATE. THINK WE WILL STILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATOCUMULUS
THIS MORNING FROM THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVEL NE TO NNE LOW LEVEL
FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AT KRDU AND KFAY THOUGH. EXPECT
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY MID TO LATE MORNING...
WITH VFR EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE... A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC WIND IS EXPECTED TODAY
(5-10 KTS). HOWEVER... THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS (8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID-UPPER
TEENS KTS... MAINLY AT KFAY/KRWI) AT EASTERN SITES MID-MORNING TO
MIDDAY TODAY...WHERE THE MSLP PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RESIDUALLY
TIGHT EARLY IN THE DAY...BETWEEN THE OVERHEAD SFC HIGH AND THE
OFFSHORE HURRICANE.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT. THUS... DO NOT EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF IFR/LIFR
MORNING FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS ON THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME MVFR VISBYS AT KRWI IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS OF THURSDAY... THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK: THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN A SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM THU AND FRI...AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS IN BRIEF NE
FLOW THU NIGHT FROM KRWI AND ESPECIALLY POINTS NORTHEASTWARD... INTO
NE NC AND TIDEWATER VA. THE PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSUMES A MORE
SOUTHERLY (MOIST) COMPONENT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 271038
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
638 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC THU
AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...

THIS MORNING: AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPANDING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT THIS MORNING... AND SHOWS UP
QUITE WELL ON THE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE CHANNEL. MODELS ARE NOT
HANDLING THIS WELL... BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THIS IT WILL CONTINUE
TO OOZE SOUTH AND WESTWARD OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS... THEN SLOWLY LIFT AND SCATTER THROUGH MID MORNING. AS THE
STRATUS DECK MOVES INTO A GIVEN LOCATION IT IS LOWERING AND AT SOME
SITES IS MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE GROUND... CAUSING SOME LOCALLY
DENSE FOG. WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER THIS THREAT AND WILL
MONITOR TO SEE IF A DFA IS NEEDED.

TODAY AND TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING... WILL BE PINCHED OFF TODAY AS
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL LIFTS NORTHWARD AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE. A
PINCHED OFF PIECE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NC TODAY. PW`S WILL REMAIN BELOW AND INCH TODAY... AS
THE HURRICANE PASSES TO OUR EAST LEAVING US ON THE DRY SUBSIDENCE
SIDE OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS... WITH UNSEASONABLY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME
15 TO 20 METERS TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY... HELPING TO LIMIT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FURTHER... AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... WE WILL STILL
LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
THIS MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING. AS THE MIXED LAYER
DEEPENS THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER/DISSIPATE. THIS SHOULD
YIELD HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER TODAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS NEAR
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S... A BIT LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS GUIDANCES WITH THE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS OVER FORECAST HIGH TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE CORE OF THE LOWER PW`S ARE FORECAST TO
DRIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH... ASSOCIATED WITH THE
S/W TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ABSORB HURRICANE CRISTOBAL AND SWEEP
HIM QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST (AWAY FROM ANY COASTAL AREAS IN THE
U.S.). LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COMFORTABLE FOR LATE AUGUST IN
CENTRAL NC... BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S... MAYBE EVEN A
FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE UPPER 50S.

THURSDAY: THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER... WITH
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM WE SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S (AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES... POOLING ALONG IT). THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... WE SHOULD WARM UP NICELY ON
THURSDAY... WITH THE WSW TO W`ERLY FLOW. THUS... EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. WRT A SEVERE THREAT... SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE LOW... GIVEN THE RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY...
THANKS TO THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO
MOIST AND CONSEQUENTLY GENERATES TOO MUCH INSTABILITY AS NOTED IN
THE PREVIOUS AFD FOR THE PATTERN. IN ADDITION... DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK... ~20KTS OR SO. THUS... WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED IN THE SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IN ANYWAY. IF WE GET A
DECENT STORM DEVELOP THOUGH IT WOULD HAVE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
THANKS TO THE DRY DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...

BACKDOOR FRONT PROJECTED TO STALL IN VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY DISSOLVE
ON FRIDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY AID TO
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH-EAST
OF RDU...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM POSSIBLE OVER THE SAME
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUILDING MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ELSEWHERE. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES STILL AVERAGING 10M ABOVE
NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 60S-AROUND 70
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY...PRESENCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT. STILL EXPECT AN EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN THE INCREASE...WITH SOME GROWTH TO THE CU UNTIL IT HITS
THE INVERSION. MODEL GUIDANCE PLACES THE 700MB ANTI-CYCLONE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. THIS FAVORABLE PLACEMENT SUGGEST MAX TEMPS BACK IN THE 90-
95 DEGREE RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER
70S.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN WITH
TIME. INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE BULK
OF BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WEST-NW OF
OUR REGION...WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK-MODERATE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. MAY SEE CONVECTION BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED/ORGANIZED MONDAY AND MORE SO TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. (GFS AS MUCH AS 12=18
HOURS FASTER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. PER INITIALIZATION TONIGHT OFF
TEH PACIFIC NW...SLOWER ECMWF PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.) RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY
AS AIR MASS WILL BECOME TROPICAL-LIKE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
PREDICTED TO RETURN TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. OUR
STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ITO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S NW-LOWER 90S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BETWEEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND HURRICANE CRISTOBAL
OFFSHORE...WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER... AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAS
DEVELOPED/MOVED INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...
CREATING LIFR CONDITIONS AT KRWI. THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS
EXPANDING WEST AND SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE
THAT IT WILL REACH KFAY AND/OR KRDU BEFORE IT BEGINS TO LIFT IS LOW
TO MODERATE. THINK WE WILL STILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATOCUMULUS
THIS MORNING FROM THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVEL NE TO NNE LOW LEVEL
FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AT KRDU AND KFAY THOUGH. EXPECT
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY MID TO LATE MORNING...
WITH VFR EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE AT THE LATEST.

OTHERWISE... A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC WIND IS EXPECTED TODAY
(5-10 KTS). HOWEVER... THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS (8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID-UPPER
TEENS KTS... MAINLY AT KFAY/KRWI) AT EASTERN SITES MID-MORNING TO
MIDDAY TODAY...WHERE THE MSLP PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RESIDUALLY
TIGHT EARLY IN THE DAY...BETWEEN THE OVERHEAD SFC HIGH AND THE
OFFSHORE HURRICANE.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT. THUS... DO NOT EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF IFR/LIFR
MORNING FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS ON THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME MVFR VISBYS AT KRWI IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS OF THURSDAY... THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE WAY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK: THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN A SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM THU AND FRI...AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS IN BRIEF NE
FLOW THU NIGHT FROM KRWI AND ESPECIALLY POINTS NORTHEASTWARD... INTO
NE NC AND TIDEWATER VA. THE PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSUMES A MORE
SOUTHERLY (MOIST) COMPONENT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 271017
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
617 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC THU
AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...

THIS MORNING: AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPANDING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT THIS MORNING... AND SHOWS UP
QUITE WELL ON THE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE CHANNEL. MODELS ARE NOT
HANDLING THIS WELL... BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THIS IT WILL CONTINUE
TO OOZE SOUTH AND WESTWARD OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS... THEN SLOWLY LIFT AND SCATTER THROUGH MID MORNING. AS THE
STRATUS DECK MOVES INTO A GIVEN LOCATION IT IS LOWERING AND AT SOME
SITES IS MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE GROUND... CAUSING SOME LOCALLY
DENSE FOG. WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER THIS THREAT AND WILL
MONITOR TO SEE IF A DFA IS NEEDED.

TODAY AND TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING... WILL BE PINCHED OFF TODAY AS
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL LIFTS NORTHWARD AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE. A
PINCHED OFF PIECE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NC TODAY. PW`S WILL REMAIN BELOW AND INCH TODAY... AS
THE HURRICANE PASSES TO OUR EAST LEAVING US ON THE DRY SUBSIDENCE
SIDE OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS... WITH UNSEASONABLY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME
15 TO 20 METERS TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY... HELPING TO LIMIT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FURTHER... AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... WE WILL STILL
LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
THIS MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING. AS THE MIXED LAYER
DEEPENS THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER/DISSIPATE. THIS SHOULD
YIELD HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER TODAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS NEAR
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S... A BIT LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS GUIDANCES WITH THE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS OVER FORECAST HIGH TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE CORE OF THE LOWER PW`S ARE FORECAST TO
DRIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH... ASSOCIATED WITH THE
S/W TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ABSORB HURRICANE CRISTOBAL AND SWEEP
HIM QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST (AWAY FROM ANY COASTAL AREAS IN THE
U.S.). LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COMFORTABLE FOR LATE AUGUST IN
CENTRAL NC... BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S... MAYBE EVEN A
FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE UPPER 50S.

THURSDAY: THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER... WITH
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM WE SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S (AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES... POOLING ALONG IT). THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... WE SHOULD WARM UP NICELY ON
THURSDAY... WITH THE WSW TO W`ERLY FLOW. THUS... EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. WRT A SEVERE THREAT... SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE LOW... GIVEN THE RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY...
THANKS TO THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO
MOIST AND CONSEQUENTLY GENERATES TOO MUCH INSTABILITY AS NOTED IN
THE PREVIOUS AFD FOR THE PATTERN. IN ADDITION... DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK... ~20KTS OR SO. THUS... WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED IN THE SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IN ANYWAY. IF WE GET A
DECENT STORM DEVELOP THOUGH IT WOULD HAVE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
THANKS TO THE DRY DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...

BACKDOOR FRONT PROJECTED TO STALL IN VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY DISSOLVE
ON FRIDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY AID TO
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH-EAST
OF RDU...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM POSSIBLE OVER THE SAME
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUILDING MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ELSEWHERE. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES STILL AVERAGING 10M ABOVE
NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 60S-AROUND 70
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY...PRESENCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT. STILL EXPECT AN EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN THE INCREASE...WITH SOME GROWTH TO THE CU UNTIL IT HITS
THE INVERSION. MODEL GUIDANCE PLACES THE 700MB ANTI-CYCLONE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. THIS FAVORABLE PLACEMENT SUGGEST MAX TEMPS BACK IN THE 90-
95 DEGREE RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER
70S.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN WITH
TIME. INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE BULK
OF BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WEST-NW OF
OUR REGION...WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK-MODERATE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. MAY SEE CONVECTION BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED/ORGANIZED MONDAY AND MORE SO TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. (GFS AS MUCH AS 12=18
HOURS FASTER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. PER INITIALIZATION TONIGHT OFF
TEH PACIFIC NW...SLOWER ECMWF PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.) RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY
AS AIR MASS WILL BECOME TROPICAL-LIKE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
PREDICTED TO RETURN TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. OUR
STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ITO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S NW-LOWER 90S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BETWEEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND HURRICANE CRISTOBAL
OFFSHORE...WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY WENT CALM AT MOST SITES ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THIS MORNING. WHILE WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT EXPECTED... THINK WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY SUB-VFR VISBYS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT KRWI MAY
HAVE SOME MVFR VISBYS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF THIS MORNING. THUS...
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR KRWI FOR MVFR VISBYS IN THE 07-11Z TIME
FRAME. IF SUB-VFR VISBYS DO INDEED DEVELOP AT KRWI... THEN WE COULD
SEE THE FOG PRONE SITE VARY FROM MVFR TO IFR/LIFR UNTIL 11/12Z.
CONFIDENCE AT KFAY AND KRDU IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY
SUB-VFR PRE-DAWN VISBYS IN THEIR TAFS YET.

AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING WE MAY AGAIN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP... THANKS TO THE CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW... BEFORE LIFTING AND SCATTERING. ALTHOUGH... EXPECT IT
TO BE VERY BRIEF AND LIMITED TO ONLY THE EASTERN SITES
(KRDU/KFAY/KRWI)... AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE BACKING TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL LIFTS NORTHWARD AND PASS
WELL OFFSHORE TODAY.

OTHERWISE... A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC WIND IS EXPECTED TODAY
(5-10 KTS). HOWEVER... THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS (8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID-UPPER
TEENS KTS... MAINLY AT KFAY/KRWI) AT EASTERN SITES MID-MORNING TO
MIDDAY TODAY...WHERE THE MSLP PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RESIDUALLY
TIGHT EARLY IN THE DAY...BETWEEN THE OVERHEAD SFC HIGH AND THE
OFFSHORE HURRICANE.

OUTLOOK: THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN A SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM THU AND FRI...AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS IN BRIEF NE
FLOW THU NIGHT FROM KRWI AND ESPECIALLY POINTS NORTHEASTWARD... INTO
NE NC AND TIDEWATER VA. THE PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSUMES A MORE
SOUTHERLY (MOIST) COMPONENT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 271017
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
617 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC THU
AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...

THIS MORNING: AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPANDING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT THIS MORNING... AND SHOWS UP
QUITE WELL ON THE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE CHANNEL. MODELS ARE NOT
HANDLING THIS WELL... BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THIS IT WILL CONTINUE
TO OOZE SOUTH AND WESTWARD OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS... THEN SLOWLY LIFT AND SCATTER THROUGH MID MORNING. AS THE
STRATUS DECK MOVES INTO A GIVEN LOCATION IT IS LOWERING AND AT SOME
SITES IS MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE GROUND... CAUSING SOME LOCALLY
DENSE FOG. WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER THIS THREAT AND WILL
MONITOR TO SEE IF A DFA IS NEEDED.

TODAY AND TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING... WILL BE PINCHED OFF TODAY AS
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL LIFTS NORTHWARD AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE. A
PINCHED OFF PIECE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NC TODAY. PW`S WILL REMAIN BELOW AND INCH TODAY... AS
THE HURRICANE PASSES TO OUR EAST LEAVING US ON THE DRY SUBSIDENCE
SIDE OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS... WITH UNSEASONABLY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME
15 TO 20 METERS TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY... HELPING TO LIMIT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FURTHER... AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... WE WILL STILL
LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
THIS MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING. AS THE MIXED LAYER
DEEPENS THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER/DISSIPATE. THIS SHOULD
YIELD HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER TODAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS NEAR
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S... A BIT LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS GUIDANCES WITH THE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS OVER FORECAST HIGH TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE CORE OF THE LOWER PW`S ARE FORECAST TO
DRIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH... ASSOCIATED WITH THE
S/W TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ABSORB HURRICANE CRISTOBAL AND SWEEP
HIM QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST (AWAY FROM ANY COASTAL AREAS IN THE
U.S.). LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COMFORTABLE FOR LATE AUGUST IN
CENTRAL NC... BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S... MAYBE EVEN A
FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE UPPER 50S.

THURSDAY: THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER... WITH
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM WE SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S (AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES... POOLING ALONG IT). THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... WE SHOULD WARM UP NICELY ON
THURSDAY... WITH THE WSW TO W`ERLY FLOW. THUS... EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. WRT A SEVERE THREAT... SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE LOW... GIVEN THE RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY...
THANKS TO THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO
MOIST AND CONSEQUENTLY GENERATES TOO MUCH INSTABILITY AS NOTED IN
THE PREVIOUS AFD FOR THE PATTERN. IN ADDITION... DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK... ~20KTS OR SO. THUS... WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED IN THE SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IN ANYWAY. IF WE GET A
DECENT STORM DEVELOP THOUGH IT WOULD HAVE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
THANKS TO THE DRY DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...

BACKDOOR FRONT PROJECTED TO STALL IN VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY DISSOLVE
ON FRIDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY AID TO
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH-EAST
OF RDU...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM POSSIBLE OVER THE SAME
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUILDING MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ELSEWHERE. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES STILL AVERAGING 10M ABOVE
NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 60S-AROUND 70
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY...PRESENCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT. STILL EXPECT AN EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN THE INCREASE...WITH SOME GROWTH TO THE CU UNTIL IT HITS
THE INVERSION. MODEL GUIDANCE PLACES THE 700MB ANTI-CYCLONE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. THIS FAVORABLE PLACEMENT SUGGEST MAX TEMPS BACK IN THE 90-
95 DEGREE RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER
70S.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN WITH
TIME. INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE BULK
OF BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WEST-NW OF
OUR REGION...WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK-MODERATE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. MAY SEE CONVECTION BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED/ORGANIZED MONDAY AND MORE SO TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. (GFS AS MUCH AS 12=18
HOURS FASTER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. PER INITIALIZATION TONIGHT OFF
TEH PACIFIC NW...SLOWER ECMWF PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.) RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY
AS AIR MASS WILL BECOME TROPICAL-LIKE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
PREDICTED TO RETURN TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. OUR
STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ITO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S NW-LOWER 90S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BETWEEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND HURRICANE CRISTOBAL
OFFSHORE...WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY WENT CALM AT MOST SITES ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THIS MORNING. WHILE WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT EXPECTED... THINK WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY SUB-VFR VISBYS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT KRWI MAY
HAVE SOME MVFR VISBYS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF THIS MORNING. THUS...
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR KRWI FOR MVFR VISBYS IN THE 07-11Z TIME
FRAME. IF SUB-VFR VISBYS DO INDEED DEVELOP AT KRWI... THEN WE COULD
SEE THE FOG PRONE SITE VARY FROM MVFR TO IFR/LIFR UNTIL 11/12Z.
CONFIDENCE AT KFAY AND KRDU IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY
SUB-VFR PRE-DAWN VISBYS IN THEIR TAFS YET.

AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING WE MAY AGAIN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP... THANKS TO THE CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW... BEFORE LIFTING AND SCATTERING. ALTHOUGH... EXPECT IT
TO BE VERY BRIEF AND LIMITED TO ONLY THE EASTERN SITES
(KRDU/KFAY/KRWI)... AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE BACKING TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL LIFTS NORTHWARD AND PASS
WELL OFFSHORE TODAY.

OTHERWISE... A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC WIND IS EXPECTED TODAY
(5-10 KTS). HOWEVER... THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS (8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID-UPPER
TEENS KTS... MAINLY AT KFAY/KRWI) AT EASTERN SITES MID-MORNING TO
MIDDAY TODAY...WHERE THE MSLP PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RESIDUALLY
TIGHT EARLY IN THE DAY...BETWEEN THE OVERHEAD SFC HIGH AND THE
OFFSHORE HURRICANE.

OUTLOOK: THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN A SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM THU AND FRI...AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS IN BRIEF NE
FLOW THU NIGHT FROM KRWI AND ESPECIALLY POINTS NORTHEASTWARD... INTO
NE NC AND TIDEWATER VA. THE PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSUMES A MORE
SOUTHERLY (MOIST) COMPONENT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 271017
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
617 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC THU
AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...

THIS MORNING: AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPANDING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT THIS MORNING... AND SHOWS UP
QUITE WELL ON THE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE CHANNEL. MODELS ARE NOT
HANDLING THIS WELL... BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THIS IT WILL CONTINUE
TO OOZE SOUTH AND WESTWARD OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS... THEN SLOWLY LIFT AND SCATTER THROUGH MID MORNING. AS THE
STRATUS DECK MOVES INTO A GIVEN LOCATION IT IS LOWERING AND AT SOME
SITES IS MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE GROUND... CAUSING SOME LOCALLY
DENSE FOG. WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER THIS THREAT AND WILL
MONITOR TO SEE IF A DFA IS NEEDED.

TODAY AND TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING... WILL BE PINCHED OFF TODAY AS
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL LIFTS NORTHWARD AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE. A
PINCHED OFF PIECE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NC TODAY. PW`S WILL REMAIN BELOW AND INCH TODAY... AS
THE HURRICANE PASSES TO OUR EAST LEAVING US ON THE DRY SUBSIDENCE
SIDE OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS... WITH UNSEASONABLY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME
15 TO 20 METERS TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY... HELPING TO LIMIT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FURTHER... AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... WE WILL STILL
LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
THIS MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING. AS THE MIXED LAYER
DEEPENS THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER/DISSIPATE. THIS SHOULD
YIELD HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER TODAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS NEAR
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S... A BIT LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS GUIDANCES WITH THE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS OVER FORECAST HIGH TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE CORE OF THE LOWER PW`S ARE FORECAST TO
DRIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH... ASSOCIATED WITH THE
S/W TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ABSORB HURRICANE CRISTOBAL AND SWEEP
HIM QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST (AWAY FROM ANY COASTAL AREAS IN THE
U.S.). LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COMFORTABLE FOR LATE AUGUST IN
CENTRAL NC... BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S... MAYBE EVEN A
FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE UPPER 50S.

THURSDAY: THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER... WITH
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM WE SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S (AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES... POOLING ALONG IT). THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... WE SHOULD WARM UP NICELY ON
THURSDAY... WITH THE WSW TO W`ERLY FLOW. THUS... EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. WRT A SEVERE THREAT... SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE LOW... GIVEN THE RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY...
THANKS TO THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO
MOIST AND CONSEQUENTLY GENERATES TOO MUCH INSTABILITY AS NOTED IN
THE PREVIOUS AFD FOR THE PATTERN. IN ADDITION... DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK... ~20KTS OR SO. THUS... WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED IN THE SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IN ANYWAY. IF WE GET A
DECENT STORM DEVELOP THOUGH IT WOULD HAVE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
THANKS TO THE DRY DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...

BACKDOOR FRONT PROJECTED TO STALL IN VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY DISSOLVE
ON FRIDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY AID TO
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH-EAST
OF RDU...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM POSSIBLE OVER THE SAME
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUILDING MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ELSEWHERE. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES STILL AVERAGING 10M ABOVE
NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 60S-AROUND 70
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY...PRESENCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT. STILL EXPECT AN EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN THE INCREASE...WITH SOME GROWTH TO THE CU UNTIL IT HITS
THE INVERSION. MODEL GUIDANCE PLACES THE 700MB ANTI-CYCLONE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. THIS FAVORABLE PLACEMENT SUGGEST MAX TEMPS BACK IN THE 90-
95 DEGREE RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER
70S.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN WITH
TIME. INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE BULK
OF BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WEST-NW OF
OUR REGION...WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK-MODERATE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. MAY SEE CONVECTION BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED/ORGANIZED MONDAY AND MORE SO TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. (GFS AS MUCH AS 12=18
HOURS FASTER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. PER INITIALIZATION TONIGHT OFF
TEH PACIFIC NW...SLOWER ECMWF PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.) RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY
AS AIR MASS WILL BECOME TROPICAL-LIKE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
PREDICTED TO RETURN TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. OUR
STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ITO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S NW-LOWER 90S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BETWEEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND HURRICANE CRISTOBAL
OFFSHORE...WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY WENT CALM AT MOST SITES ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THIS MORNING. WHILE WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT EXPECTED... THINK WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY SUB-VFR VISBYS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT KRWI MAY
HAVE SOME MVFR VISBYS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF THIS MORNING. THUS...
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR KRWI FOR MVFR VISBYS IN THE 07-11Z TIME
FRAME. IF SUB-VFR VISBYS DO INDEED DEVELOP AT KRWI... THEN WE COULD
SEE THE FOG PRONE SITE VARY FROM MVFR TO IFR/LIFR UNTIL 11/12Z.
CONFIDENCE AT KFAY AND KRDU IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY
SUB-VFR PRE-DAWN VISBYS IN THEIR TAFS YET.

AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING WE MAY AGAIN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP... THANKS TO THE CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW... BEFORE LIFTING AND SCATTERING. ALTHOUGH... EXPECT IT
TO BE VERY BRIEF AND LIMITED TO ONLY THE EASTERN SITES
(KRDU/KFAY/KRWI)... AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE BACKING TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL LIFTS NORTHWARD AND PASS
WELL OFFSHORE TODAY.

OTHERWISE... A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC WIND IS EXPECTED TODAY
(5-10 KTS). HOWEVER... THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS (8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID-UPPER
TEENS KTS... MAINLY AT KFAY/KRWI) AT EASTERN SITES MID-MORNING TO
MIDDAY TODAY...WHERE THE MSLP PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RESIDUALLY
TIGHT EARLY IN THE DAY...BETWEEN THE OVERHEAD SFC HIGH AND THE
OFFSHORE HURRICANE.

OUTLOOK: THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN A SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM THU AND FRI...AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS IN BRIEF NE
FLOW THU NIGHT FROM KRWI AND ESPECIALLY POINTS NORTHEASTWARD... INTO
NE NC AND TIDEWATER VA. THE PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSUMES A MORE
SOUTHERLY (MOIST) COMPONENT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 271017
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
617 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC THU
AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 615 AM WEDNESDAY...

THIS MORNING: AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPANDING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR EASTERN PIEDMONT THIS MORNING... AND SHOWS UP
QUITE WELL ON THE 11U-3.9U SATELLITE CHANNEL. MODELS ARE NOT
HANDLING THIS WELL... BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THIS IT WILL CONTINUE
TO OOZE SOUTH AND WESTWARD OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS... THEN SLOWLY LIFT AND SCATTER THROUGH MID MORNING. AS THE
STRATUS DECK MOVES INTO A GIVEN LOCATION IT IS LOWERING AND AT SOME
SITES IS MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE GROUND... CAUSING SOME LOCALLY
DENSE FOG. WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER THIS THREAT AND WILL
MONITOR TO SEE IF A DFA IS NEEDED.

TODAY AND TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING... WILL BE PINCHED OFF TODAY AS
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL LIFTS NORTHWARD AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE. A
PINCHED OFF PIECE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NC TODAY. PW`S WILL REMAIN BELOW AND INCH TODAY... AS
THE HURRICANE PASSES TO OUR EAST LEAVING US ON THE DRY SUBSIDENCE
SIDE OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS... WITH UNSEASONABLY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME
15 TO 20 METERS TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY... HELPING TO LIMIT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FURTHER... AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... WE WILL STILL
LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
THIS MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING. AS THE MIXED LAYER
DEEPENS THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER/DISSIPATE. THIS SHOULD
YIELD HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER TODAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS NEAR
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S... A BIT LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS GUIDANCES WITH THE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS OVER FORECAST HIGH TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE CORE OF THE LOWER PW`S ARE FORECAST TO
DRIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH... ASSOCIATED WITH THE
S/W TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ABSORB HURRICANE CRISTOBAL AND SWEEP
HIM QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST (AWAY FROM ANY COASTAL AREAS IN THE
U.S.). LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COMFORTABLE FOR LATE AUGUST IN
CENTRAL NC... BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S... MAYBE EVEN A
FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE UPPER 50S.

THURSDAY: THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER... WITH
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM WE SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S (AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES... POOLING ALONG IT). THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... WE SHOULD WARM UP NICELY ON
THURSDAY... WITH THE WSW TO W`ERLY FLOW. THUS... EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. WRT A SEVERE THREAT... SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE LOW... GIVEN THE RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY...
THANKS TO THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO
MOIST AND CONSEQUENTLY GENERATES TOO MUCH INSTABILITY AS NOTED IN
THE PREVIOUS AFD FOR THE PATTERN. IN ADDITION... DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK... ~20KTS OR SO. THUS... WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED IN THE SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IN ANYWAY. IF WE GET A
DECENT STORM DEVELOP THOUGH IT WOULD HAVE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
THANKS TO THE DRY DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...

BACKDOOR FRONT PROJECTED TO STALL IN VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY DISSOLVE
ON FRIDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY AID TO
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH-EAST
OF RDU...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM POSSIBLE OVER THE SAME
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUILDING MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ELSEWHERE. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES STILL AVERAGING 10M ABOVE
NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 60S-AROUND 70
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY...PRESENCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT. STILL EXPECT AN EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN THE INCREASE...WITH SOME GROWTH TO THE CU UNTIL IT HITS
THE INVERSION. MODEL GUIDANCE PLACES THE 700MB ANTI-CYCLONE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. THIS FAVORABLE PLACEMENT SUGGEST MAX TEMPS BACK IN THE 90-
95 DEGREE RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER
70S.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN WITH
TIME. INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE BULK
OF BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WEST-NW OF
OUR REGION...WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK-MODERATE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. MAY SEE CONVECTION BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED/ORGANIZED MONDAY AND MORE SO TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. (GFS AS MUCH AS 12=18
HOURS FASTER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. PER INITIALIZATION TONIGHT OFF
TEH PACIFIC NW...SLOWER ECMWF PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.) RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY
AS AIR MASS WILL BECOME TROPICAL-LIKE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
PREDICTED TO RETURN TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. OUR
STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ITO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S NW-LOWER 90S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BETWEEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND HURRICANE CRISTOBAL
OFFSHORE...WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY WENT CALM AT MOST SITES ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THIS MORNING. WHILE WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT EXPECTED... THINK WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY SUB-VFR VISBYS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT KRWI MAY
HAVE SOME MVFR VISBYS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF THIS MORNING. THUS...
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR KRWI FOR MVFR VISBYS IN THE 07-11Z TIME
FRAME. IF SUB-VFR VISBYS DO INDEED DEVELOP AT KRWI... THEN WE COULD
SEE THE FOG PRONE SITE VARY FROM MVFR TO IFR/LIFR UNTIL 11/12Z.
CONFIDENCE AT KFAY AND KRDU IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY
SUB-VFR PRE-DAWN VISBYS IN THEIR TAFS YET.

AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING WE MAY AGAIN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP... THANKS TO THE CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW... BEFORE LIFTING AND SCATTERING. ALTHOUGH... EXPECT IT
TO BE VERY BRIEF AND LIMITED TO ONLY THE EASTERN SITES
(KRDU/KFAY/KRWI)... AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE BACKING TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL LIFTS NORTHWARD AND PASS
WELL OFFSHORE TODAY.

OTHERWISE... A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC WIND IS EXPECTED TODAY
(5-10 KTS). HOWEVER... THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS (8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID-UPPER
TEENS KTS... MAINLY AT KFAY/KRWI) AT EASTERN SITES MID-MORNING TO
MIDDAY TODAY...WHERE THE MSLP PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RESIDUALLY
TIGHT EARLY IN THE DAY...BETWEEN THE OVERHEAD SFC HIGH AND THE
OFFSHORE HURRICANE.

OUTLOOK: THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN A SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM THU AND FRI...AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS IN BRIEF NE
FLOW THU NIGHT FROM KRWI AND ESPECIALLY POINTS NORTHEASTWARD... INTO
NE NC AND TIDEWATER VA. THE PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSUMES A MORE
SOUTHERLY (MOIST) COMPONENT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 270720 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
319 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC THU
AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

THIS MORNING: CLAM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES COUPLED WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE FROM NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG THIS MORNING... A FEW OF THE
FOG PRONE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE MAY SEE SOME VERY
PATCHY... BUT DENSE FOG.

TODAY AND TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING... WILL BE PINCHED OFF TODAY AS
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL LIFTS NORTHWARD AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE. A
PINCHED OFF PIECE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NC TODAY. PW`S WILL REMAIN BELOW AND INCH TODAY... AS
THE HURRICANE PASSES TO OUR EAST LEAVING US ON THE DRY SUBSIDENCE
SIDE OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS... WITH UNSEASONABLY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME
15 TO 20 METERS TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY... HELPING TO LIMIT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FURTHER... AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... WE WILL STILL
LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
THIS MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING. AS THE MIXED LAYER
DEEPENS THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER/DISSIPATE. THIS SHOULD
YIELD HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER TODAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS NEAR
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S... A BIT LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS GUIDANCES WITH THE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS OVER FORECAST HIGH TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE CORE OF THE LOWER PW`S ARE FORECAST TO
DRIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH... ASSOCIATED WITH THE
S/W TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ABSORB HURRICANE CRISTOBAL AND SWEEP
HIM QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST (AWAY FROM ANY COASTAL AREAS IN THE
U.S.). LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COMFORTABLE FOR LATE AUGUST IN
CENTRAL NC... BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S... MAYBE EVEN A
FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE UPPER 50S.

THURSDAY: THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER... WITH
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM WE SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S (AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES... POOLING ALONG IT). THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... WE SHOULD WARM UP NICELY ON
THURSDAY... WITH THE WSW TO W`ERLY FLOW. THUS... EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. WRT A SEVERE THREAT... SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE LOW... GIVEN THE RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY...
THANKS TO THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO
MOIST AND CONSEQUENTLY GENERATES TOO MUCH INSTABILITY AS NOTED IN
THE PREVIOUS AFD FOR THE PATTERN. IN ADDITION... DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK... ~20KTS OR SO. THUS... WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED IN THE SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IN ANYWAY. IF WE GET A
DECENT STORM DEVELOP THOUGH IT WOULD HAVE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
THANKS TO THE DRY DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...

BACKDOOR FRONT PROJECTED TO STALL IN VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY DISSOLVE
ON FRIDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY AID TO
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH-EAST
OF RDU...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM POSSIBLE OVER THE SAME
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUILDING MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ELSEWHERE. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES STILL AVERAGING 10M ABOVE
NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 60S-AROUND 70
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY...PRESENCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT. STILL EXPECT AN EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN THE INCREASE...WITH SOME GROWTH TO THE CU UNTIL IT HITS
THE INVERSION. MODEL GUIDANCE PLACES THE 700MB ANTI-CYCLONE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. THIS FAVORABLE PLACEMENT SUGGEST MAX TEMPS BACK IN THE 90-
95 DEGREE RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER
70S.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN WITH
TIME. INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE BULK
OF BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WEST-NW OF
OUR REGION...WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK-MODERATE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. MAY SEE CONVECTION BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED/ORGANIZED MONDAY AND MORE SO TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. (GFS AS MUCH AS 12=18
HOURS FASTER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. PER INITIALIZATION TONIGHT OFF
TEH PACIFIC NW...SLOWER ECMWF PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.) RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY
AS AIR MASS WILL BECOME TROPICAL-LIKE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
PREDICTED TO RETURN TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. OUR
STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ITO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S NW-LOWER 90S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BETWEEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND HURRICANE CRISTOBAL
OFFSHORE...WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY WENT CALM AT MOST SITES ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THIS MORNING. WHILE WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT EXPECTED... THINK WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY SUB-VFR VISBYS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT KRWI MAY
HAVE SOME MVFR VISBYS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF THIS MORNING. THUS...
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR KRWI FOR MVFR VISBYS IN THE 07-11Z TIME
FRAME. IF SUB-VFR VISBYS DO INDEED DEVELOP AT KRWI... THEN WE COULD
SEE THE FOG PRONE SITE VARY FROM MVFR TO IFR/LIFR UNTIL 11/12Z.
CONFIDENCE AT KFAY AND KRDU IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY
SUB-VFR PRE-DAWN VISBYS IN THEIR TAFS YET.

AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING WE MAY AGAIN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP... THANKS TO THE CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW... BEFORE LIFTING AND SCATTERING. ALTHOUGH... EXPECT IT
TO BE VERY BRIEF AND LIMITED TO ONLY THE EASTERN SITES
(KRDU/KFAY/KRWI)... AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE BACKING TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL LIFTS NORTHWARD AND PASS
WELL OFFSHORE TODAY.

OTHERWISE... A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC WIND IS EXPECTED TODAY
(5-10 KTS). HOWEVER... THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS (8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID-UPPER
TEENS KTS... MAINLY AT KFAY/KRWI) AT EASTERN SITES MID-MORNING TO
MIDDAY TODAY...WHERE THE MSLP PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RESIDUALLY
TIGHT EARLY IN THE DAY...BETWEEN THE OVERHEAD SFC HIGH AND THE
OFFSHORE HURRICANE.

OUTLOOK: THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN A SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM THU AND FRI...AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS IN BRIEF NE
FLOW THU NIGHT FROM KRWI AND ESPECIALLY POINTS NORTHEASTWARD... INTO
NE NC AND TIDEWATER VA. THE PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSUMES A MORE
SOUTHERLY (MOIST) COMPONENT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 270720 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
319 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC THU
AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

THIS MORNING: CLAM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES COUPLED WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE FROM NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG THIS MORNING... A FEW OF THE
FOG PRONE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE MAY SEE SOME VERY
PATCHY... BUT DENSE FOG.

TODAY AND TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING... WILL BE PINCHED OFF TODAY AS
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL LIFTS NORTHWARD AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE. A
PINCHED OFF PIECE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NC TODAY. PW`S WILL REMAIN BELOW AND INCH TODAY... AS
THE HURRICANE PASSES TO OUR EAST LEAVING US ON THE DRY SUBSIDENCE
SIDE OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS... WITH UNSEASONABLY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME
15 TO 20 METERS TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY... HELPING TO LIMIT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FURTHER... AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... WE WILL STILL
LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
THIS MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING. AS THE MIXED LAYER
DEEPENS THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER/DISSIPATE. THIS SHOULD
YIELD HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER TODAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS NEAR
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S... A BIT LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS GUIDANCES WITH THE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS OVER FORECAST HIGH TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE CORE OF THE LOWER PW`S ARE FORECAST TO
DRIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH... ASSOCIATED WITH THE
S/W TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ABSORB HURRICANE CRISTOBAL AND SWEEP
HIM QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST (AWAY FROM ANY COASTAL AREAS IN THE
U.S.). LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COMFORTABLE FOR LATE AUGUST IN
CENTRAL NC... BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S... MAYBE EVEN A
FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE UPPER 50S.

THURSDAY: THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER... WITH
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM WE SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S (AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES... POOLING ALONG IT). THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... WE SHOULD WARM UP NICELY ON
THURSDAY... WITH THE WSW TO W`ERLY FLOW. THUS... EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. WRT A SEVERE THREAT... SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE LOW... GIVEN THE RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY...
THANKS TO THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO
MOIST AND CONSEQUENTLY GENERATES TOO MUCH INSTABILITY AS NOTED IN
THE PREVIOUS AFD FOR THE PATTERN. IN ADDITION... DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK... ~20KTS OR SO. THUS... WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED IN THE SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IN ANYWAY. IF WE GET A
DECENT STORM DEVELOP THOUGH IT WOULD HAVE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
THANKS TO THE DRY DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...

BACKDOOR FRONT PROJECTED TO STALL IN VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY DISSOLVE
ON FRIDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY AID TO
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH-EAST
OF RDU...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM POSSIBLE OVER THE SAME
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUILDING MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ELSEWHERE. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES STILL AVERAGING 10M ABOVE
NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 60S-AROUND 70
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY...PRESENCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT. STILL EXPECT AN EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN THE INCREASE...WITH SOME GROWTH TO THE CU UNTIL IT HITS
THE INVERSION. MODEL GUIDANCE PLACES THE 700MB ANTI-CYCLONE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. THIS FAVORABLE PLACEMENT SUGGEST MAX TEMPS BACK IN THE 90-
95 DEGREE RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER
70S.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN WITH
TIME. INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE BULK
OF BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WEST-NW OF
OUR REGION...WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK-MODERATE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. MAY SEE CONVECTION BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED/ORGANIZED MONDAY AND MORE SO TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. (GFS AS MUCH AS 12=18
HOURS FASTER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. PER INITIALIZATION TONIGHT OFF
TEH PACIFIC NW...SLOWER ECMWF PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.) RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY
AS AIR MASS WILL BECOME TROPICAL-LIKE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
PREDICTED TO RETURN TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. OUR
STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ITO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S NW-LOWER 90S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BETWEEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND HURRICANE CRISTOBAL
OFFSHORE...WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY WENT CALM AT MOST SITES ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THIS MORNING. WHILE WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT EXPECTED... THINK WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY SUB-VFR VISBYS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT KRWI MAY
HAVE SOME MVFR VISBYS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF THIS MORNING. THUS...
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR KRWI FOR MVFR VISBYS IN THE 07-11Z TIME
FRAME. IF SUB-VFR VISBYS DO INDEED DEVELOP AT KRWI... THEN WE COULD
SEE THE FOG PRONE SITE VARY FROM MVFR TO IFR/LIFR UNTIL 11/12Z.
CONFIDENCE AT KFAY AND KRDU IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY
SUB-VFR PRE-DAWN VISBYS IN THEIR TAFS YET.

AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING WE MAY AGAIN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP... THANKS TO THE CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW... BEFORE LIFTING AND SCATTERING. ALTHOUGH... EXPECT IT
TO BE VERY BRIEF AND LIMITED TO ONLY THE EASTERN SITES
(KRDU/KFAY/KRWI)... AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE BACKING TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL LIFTS NORTHWARD AND PASS
WELL OFFSHORE TODAY.

OTHERWISE... A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC WIND IS EXPECTED TODAY
(5-10 KTS). HOWEVER... THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS (8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID-UPPER
TEENS KTS... MAINLY AT KFAY/KRWI) AT EASTERN SITES MID-MORNING TO
MIDDAY TODAY...WHERE THE MSLP PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RESIDUALLY
TIGHT EARLY IN THE DAY...BETWEEN THE OVERHEAD SFC HIGH AND THE
OFFSHORE HURRICANE.

OUTLOOK: THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN A SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM THU AND FRI...AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS IN BRIEF NE
FLOW THU NIGHT FROM KRWI AND ESPECIALLY POINTS NORTHEASTWARD... INTO
NE NC AND TIDEWATER VA. THE PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSUMES A MORE
SOUTHERLY (MOIST) COMPONENT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 270720
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
319 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC THU
AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

THIS MORNING: CLAM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES COUPLED WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE FROM NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG THIS MORNING... A FEW OF THE
FOG PRONE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE MAY SEE SOME VERY
PATCHY... BUT DENSE FOG.

TODAY AND TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING... WILL BE PINCHED OFF TODAY AS
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL LIFTS NORTHWARD AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE. A
PINCHED OFF PIECE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NC TODAY. PW`S WILL REMAIN BELOW AND INCH TODAY... AS
THE HURRICANE PASSES TO OUR EAST LEAVING US ON THE DRY SUBSIDENCE
SIDE OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS... WITH UNSEASONABLY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME
15 TO 20 METERS TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY... HELPING TO LIMIT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FURTHER... AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... WE WILL STILL
LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
THIS MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING. AS THE MIXED LAYER
DEEPENS THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER/DISSIPATE. THIS SHOULD
YIELD HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER TODAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS NEAR
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S... A BIT LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS GUIDANCES WITH THE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS OVER FORECAST HIGH TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE CORE OF THE LOWER PW`S ARE FORECAST TO
DRIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH... ASSOCIATED WITH THE
S/W TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ABSORB HURRICANE CRISTOBAL AND SWEEP
HIM QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST (AWAY FROM ANY COASTAL AREAS IN THE
U.S.). LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COMFORTABLE FOR LATE AUGUST IN
CENTRAL NC... BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S... MAYBE EVEN A
FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE UPPER 50S.

THURSDAY: THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER... WITH
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM WE SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S (AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES... POOLING ALONG IT). THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... WE SHOULD WARM UP NICELY ON
THURSDAY... WITH THE WSW TO W`ERLY FLOW. THUS... EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. WRT A SEVERE THREAT... SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE LOW... GIVEN THE RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY...
THANKS TO THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO
MOIST AND CONSEQUENTLY GENERATES TOO MUCH INSTABILITY AS NOTED IN
THE PREVIOUS AFD FOR THE PATTERN. IN ADDITION... DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK... ~20KTS OR SO. THUS... WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED IN THE SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IN ANYWAY. IF WE GET A
DECENT STORM DEVELOP THOUGH IT WOULD HAVE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
THANKS TO THE DRY DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...

BACKDOOR FRONT PROJECTED TO STALL IN VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY DISSOLVE
ON FRIDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY AID TO
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH-EAST
OF RDU...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM POSSIBLE OVER THE SAME
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUILDING MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ELSEWHERE. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES STILL AVERAGING 10M ABOVE
NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 60S-AROUND 70
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY...PRESENCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT. STILL EXPECT AN EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN THE INCREASE...WITH SOME GROWTH TO THE CU UNTIL IT HITS
THE INVERSION. MODEL GUIDANCE PLACES THE 700MB ANTI-CYCLONE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. THIS FAVORABLE PLACEMENT SUGGEST MAX TEMPS BACK IN THE 90-
95 DEGREE RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER
70S.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN WITH
TIME. INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE BULK
OF BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WEST-NW OF
OUR REGION...WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK-MODERATE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. MAY SEE CONVECTION BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED/ORGANIZED MONDAY AND MORE SO TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. (GFS AS MUCH AS 12=18
HOURS FASTER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. PER INITIALIZATION TONIGHT OFF
TEH PACIFIC NW...SLOWER ECMWF PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.) RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY
AS AIR MASS WILL BECOME TROPICAL-LIKE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
PREDICTED TO RETURN TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. OUR
STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ITO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S NW-LOWER 90S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BETWEEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND HURRICANE CRISTOBAL
OFFSHORE...WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY WENT CALM AT MOST SITES ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THIS MORNING. WHILE WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT EXPECTED... THINK WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY SUB-VFR VISBYS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT KRWI MAY
HAVE SOME MVFR VISBYS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF THIS MORNING. THUS...
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR KRWI FOR MVFR VISBYS IN THE 07-11Z TIME
FRAME. IF SUB-VFR VISBYS DO INDEED DEVELOP AT KRWI... THEN WE COULD
SEE THE FOG PRONE SITE VARY FROM MVFR TO IFR/LIFR UNTIL 11/12Z.
CONFIDENCE AT KFAY AND KRDU IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY
SUB-VFR PRE-DAWN VISBYS IN THEIR TAFS YET.

AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING WE MAY AGAIN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP... THANKS TO THE CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW... BEFORE LIFTING AND SCATTERING. ALTHOUGH... EXPECT IT
TO BE VERY BRIEF AND LIMITED TO ONLY THE EASTERN SITES
(KRDU/KFAY/KRWI)... AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE BACKING TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL LIFTS NORTHWARD AND PASS
WELL OFFSHORE TODAY.

OTHERWISE... A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC WIND IS EXPECTED TODAY
(5-10 KTS). HOWEVER... THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS (8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID-UPPER
TEENS KTS... MAINLY AT KFAY/KRWI) AT EASTERN SITES MID-MORNING TO
MIDDAY TODAY...WHERE THE MSLP PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RESIDUALLY
TIGHT EARLY IN THE DAY...BETWEEN THE OVERHEAD SFC HIGH AND THE
OFFSHORE HURRICANE.

OUTLOOK: THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN A SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM THU AND FRI...AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS IN BRIEF NE
FLOW THU NIGHT FROM KRWI AND ESPECIALLY POINTS NORTHEASTWARD... INTO
NE NC AND TIDEWATER VA. THE PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSUMES A MORE
SOUTHERLY (MOIST) COMPONENT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 270720
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
319 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC THU
AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...

THIS MORNING: CLAM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES COUPLED WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE FROM NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG THIS MORNING... A FEW OF THE
FOG PRONE AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE MAY SEE SOME VERY
PATCHY... BUT DENSE FOG.

TODAY AND TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING... WILL BE PINCHED OFF TODAY AS
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL LIFTS NORTHWARD AND PASS WELL OFFSHORE. A
PINCHED OFF PIECE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NC TODAY. PW`S WILL REMAIN BELOW AND INCH TODAY... AS
THE HURRICANE PASSES TO OUR EAST LEAVING US ON THE DRY SUBSIDENCE
SIDE OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS... WITH UNSEASONABLY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME
15 TO 20 METERS TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY... HELPING TO LIMIT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FURTHER... AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... WE WILL STILL
LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
THIS MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING. AS THE MIXED LAYER
DEEPENS THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER/DISSIPATE. THIS SHOULD
YIELD HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER TODAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS NEAR
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S... A BIT LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS GUIDANCES WITH THE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS OVER FORECAST HIGH TEMPS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE CORE OF THE LOWER PW`S ARE FORECAST TO
DRIFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH... ASSOCIATED WITH THE
S/W TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ABSORB HURRICANE CRISTOBAL AND SWEEP
HIM QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST (AWAY FROM ANY COASTAL AREAS IN THE
U.S.). LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COMFORTABLE FOR LATE AUGUST IN
CENTRAL NC... BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S... MAYBE EVEN A
FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE UPPER 50S.

THURSDAY: THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER... WITH
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM WE SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MAYBE MID 60S (AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES... POOLING ALONG IT). THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... WE SHOULD WARM UP NICELY ON
THURSDAY... WITH THE WSW TO W`ERLY FLOW. THUS... EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. WRT A SEVERE THREAT... SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE LOW... GIVEN THE RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY...
THANKS TO THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO
MOIST AND CONSEQUENTLY GENERATES TOO MUCH INSTABILITY AS NOTED IN
THE PREVIOUS AFD FOR THE PATTERN. IN ADDITION... DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK... ~20KTS OR SO. THUS... WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED IN THE SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IN ANYWAY. IF WE GET A
DECENT STORM DEVELOP THOUGH IT WOULD HAVE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
THANKS TO THE DRY DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...

BACKDOOR FRONT PROJECTED TO STALL IN VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SLOWLY DISSOLVE
ON FRIDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY AID TO
TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH-EAST
OF RDU...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM POSSIBLE OVER THE SAME
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUILDING MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ELSEWHERE. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES STILL AVERAGING 10M ABOVE
NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS ABOUT 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY IN THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE. MIN TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 60S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 60S-AROUND 70
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY...PRESENCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT. STILL EXPECT AN EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN THE INCREASE...WITH SOME GROWTH TO THE CU UNTIL IT HITS
THE INVERSION. MODEL GUIDANCE PLACES THE 700MB ANTI-CYCLONE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD. THIS FAVORABLE PLACEMENT SUGGEST MAX TEMPS BACK IN THE 90-
95 DEGREE RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S-LOWER
70S.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN WITH
TIME. INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE BULK
OF BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WEST-NW OF
OUR REGION...WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK-MODERATE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. MAY SEE CONVECTION BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED/ORGANIZED MONDAY AND MORE SO TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. (GFS AS MUCH AS 12=18
HOURS FASTER COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. PER INITIALIZATION TONIGHT OFF
TEH PACIFIC NW...SLOWER ECMWF PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.) RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY
AS AIR MASS WILL BECOME TROPICAL-LIKE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
PREDICTED TO RETURN TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. OUR
STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ITO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S NW-LOWER 90S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BETWEEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND HURRICANE CRISTOBAL
OFFSHORE...WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY WENT CALM AT MOST SITES ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THIS MORNING. WHILE WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT EXPECTED... THINK WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY SUB-VFR VISBYS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT KRWI MAY
HAVE SOME MVFR VISBYS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF THIS MORNING. THUS...
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR KRWI FOR MVFR VISBYS IN THE 07-11Z TIME
FRAME. IF SUB-VFR VISBYS DO INDEED DEVELOP AT KRWI... THEN WE COULD
SEE THE FOG PRONE SITE VARY FROM MVFR TO IFR/LIFR UNTIL 11/12Z.
CONFIDENCE AT KFAY AND KRDU IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY
SUB-VFR PRE-DAWN VISBYS IN THEIR TAFS YET.

AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING WE MAY AGAIN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP... THANKS TO THE CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW... BEFORE LIFTING AND SCATTERING. ALTHOUGH... EXPECT IT
TO BE VERY BRIEF AND LIMITED TO ONLY THE EASTERN SITES
(KRDU/KFAY/KRWI)... AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE BACKING TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL LIFTS NORTHWARD AND PASS
WELL OFFSHORE TODAY.

OTHERWISE... A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC WIND IS EXPECTED TODAY
(5-10 KTS). HOWEVER... THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS (8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID-UPPER
TEENS KTS... MAINLY AT KFAY/KRWI) AT EASTERN SITES MID-MORNING TO
MIDDAY TODAY...WHERE THE MSLP PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RESIDUALLY
TIGHT EARLY IN THE DAY...BETWEEN THE OVERHEAD SFC HIGH AND THE
OFFSHORE HURRICANE.

OUTLOOK: THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN A SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM THU AND FRI...AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS IN BRIEF NE
FLOW THU NIGHT FROM KRWI AND ESPECIALLY POINTS NORTHEASTWARD... INTO
NE NC AND TIDEWATER VA. THE PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSUMES A MORE
SOUTHERLY (MOIST) COMPONENT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 270539
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
138 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC THU
AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 PM TUESDAY...

VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT.  DEEP LAYER RIDGING
CONTINUES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A DRY AIR RIDGE AT THE SURFACE
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OVERHEAD...BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON TEMPS.  DEWPOINTS ARE COMPARABLE TO LAST EVENING...AND
WITH LIGHT WINDS OR CALM CONDITIONS...LOWS SHOULD END UP SIMILAR AS
WELL.  HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BEGIN
TO MAKE ITS PASS BETWEEN NC AND BERMUDA...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE ALONG THE COAST AND KEEP NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS STIRRED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ISOLATED POCKETS OF FOG ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CENTRAL NC WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL TO THE
EAST. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN AT THE SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE
GRADIENT...AND THUS THE WINDS...WILL BE WEAKER THAN TODAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS/WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. THE CONTINUED DRY AIR AT THE MID LEVELS AND NNE FLOW
AT THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
DAY/NIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS AND AN APPROX 15 METER INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BE APPROX 5 DEGREES OR SO HIGHER THAN TODAY...UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE AND BACK
AROUND TO MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS CRISTOBAL MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM NC. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S. -KC

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE BACKDOOR SURFACE
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR NE NC THU AFTERNOON... THEN CONTINUE
DROPPING SLOWLY TO THE SSW... TO BE SITUATED FROM NW NC TO THE SRN
OUTER BANKS BY LATE THU NIGHT. PRECISELY HOW FAR SSW THE FRONT GETS
WILL DEPEND ON THE DENSITY OF THE PARENT HIGH NOSING DOWN FROM
NY/PA. LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE
THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM... GIVEN THAT ANY DPVA WITHIN THE
FAIRLY WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MINOR. THE GFS SHOWS A THIN STRIP
OF MUCAPE UNDER 750 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA LATE THU/THU
NIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS MORE UNSTABLE (1000-1500 J/KG) WITH A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE (MORE TO THE SW) FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE
GFS HAS BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF... AND ITS LOWER CAPE MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT ITS DEW POINTS
ARE 5-8 DEGREES COOLER AND MORE REASONABLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
REMAIN WEAK... WITH HIGHEST VALUES NEAR 25 KTS ONLY OVER THE NE CWA.
WILL HOLD CLOSE TO EXISTING FORECAST CONVECTION CHANCES... WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF AFTERNOON STORMS FORMING OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS
DRIFTING TO THE ESE ACROSS THE NRN CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING GRADUALLY AND EXITING OVERNIGHT. COULD
SEE SMALL LINGERING CAPE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE DEW POINTS RECOVER.
GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT... HOLDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS ISOLATED STILL LOOKS
GOOD. MODELS KEEP TRENDING WARMER... GIVING THICKNESSES 10-15 M
ABOVE NORMAL AND WARMING STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WITH EACH RUN...
SUPPORTING ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS OF 89-93 AND LOWS 67-70. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...

FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE STALLED ACROSS
NC FROM NW TO THE CENTRAL COAST EARLY FRI... THEN START TO DISSOLVE
WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE PROGRESSIVE PARENT
HIGH TO THE NNE SHIFTS SWIFTLY OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW AND IMPROVED MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE DYING
FRONT MAY FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE NRN
CWA... ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING ALOFT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES... ALLOWING RIDGING
TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES... AND THIS WARMING AND
STABILIZATION ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS
WITH THICKNESSES INCHING UPWARD... AND HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN BE WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 90 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70.

FOR SAT-TUE: THE DRY WEATHER EARLY IN THIS PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO INCREASED STORM CHANCES HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MID LEVEL LOW NOW OVER NV WILL CONTINUE HEADING EASTWARD THEN
NORTHEAST... DAMPENING AS IT GETS DRAWN UP BY PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER SRN CANADA. STRONG RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST SAT... AND WITH THE SE/S LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
LIGHT... MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE SUBDUED. THE GFS DEPICTS MUCAPE
VALUES RISING TO 1000-1500 J/KG SAT... BUT THE SMALL DEEP LAYER
SHEAR UNDER 20 KTS WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/STRENGTH. AND THERE
MAY NOT BE ANY DISCERNIBLE BOUNDARY LEFT OVER CENTRAL NC TO FOCUS
CONVECTION. GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH FAIRLY DRY... SO WILL KEEP POPS SAT
UNDER CLIMATOLOGY AT LESS THAN 15%. THE DAMPENED WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN/SUN NIGHT... AND WHILE THIS MAY HELP TAMP
DOWN THE RIDGE A BIT... THE ENSUING SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS VERY
LIGHT. SURFACE LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER CENTRAL NC...
AND WITH IMPROVED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND RISING MLCAPE PREDICTIONS
TO 1500-2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... WE SHOULD SEE A SMALL
UPTICK IN CONVECTION CHANCES SUN/SUN NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODEL
DETAILS DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME BUT IT APPEARS THAT HEIGHTS WILL BE
ON THE SLOW RISE AGAIN MON/TUE... ALBEIT WITH A WEAK SHEAR AXIS
POSSIBLY LAYING BACK THROUGH THE WRN PIEDMONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO
LEAD TO A TREND BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL POPS...
SCATTERED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING... AND WILL RETAIN
CHANCE POPS MON EXTENDING THROUGH TUE. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO
HOLD ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10 M... SO WILL STAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BETWEEN A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND HURRICANE CRISTOBAL
OFFSHORE...WILL RESULT IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY WENT CALM AT MOST SITES ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THIS MORNING. WHILE WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT EXPECTED... THINK WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY SUB-VFR VISBYS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT KRWI MAY
HAVE SOME MVFR VISBYS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF THIS MORNING. THUS...
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR KRWI FOR MVFR VISBYS IN THE 07-11Z TIME
FRAME. IF SUB-VFR VISBYS DO INDEED DEVELOP AT KRWI... THEN WE COULD
SEE THE FOG PRONE SITE VARY FROM MVFR TO IFR/LIFR UNTIL 11/12Z.
CONFIDENCE AT KFAY AND KRDU IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY
SUB-VFR PRE-DAWN VISBYS IN THEIR TAFS YET.

AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING WE MAY AGAIN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP... THANKS TO THE CONTINUED MOIST NORTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW... BEFORE LIFTING AND SCATTERING. ALTHOUGH... EXPECT IT
TO BE VERY BRIEF AND LIMITED TO ONLY THE EASTERN SITES
(KRDU/KFAY/KRWI)... AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE BACKING TO MORE OF A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL LIFTS NORTHWARD AND PASS
WELL OFFSHORE TODAY.

OTHERWISE... A GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC WIND IS EXPECTED TODAY
(5-10 KTS). HOWEVER... THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS (8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID-UPPER
TEENS KTS... MAINLY AT KFAY/KRWI) AT EASTERN SITES MID-MORNING TO
MIDDAY TODAY...WHERE THE MSLP PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RESIDUALLY
TIGHT EARLY IN THE DAY...BETWEEN THE OVERHEAD SFC HIGH AND THE
OFFSHORE HURRICANE.

OUTLOOK: THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN A SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM THU AND FRI...AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS IN BRIEF NE
FLOW THU NIGHT FROM KRWI AND ESPECIALLY POINTS NORTHEASTWARD... INTO
NE NC AND TIDEWATER VA. THE PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSUMES A MORE
SOUTHERLY (MOIST) COMPONENT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/MWS
NEAR TERM...KC/BLS
SHORT TERM...KC/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BSD/MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 270157
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
955 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH WED. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
NC THU AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 PM TUESDAY...

VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT.  DEEP LAYER RIDGING
CONTINUES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A DRY AIR RIDGE AT THE SURFACE
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OVERHEAD...BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON TEMPS.  DEWPOINTS ARE COMPARABLE TO LAST EVENING...AND
WITH LIGHT WINDS OR CALM CONDITIONS...LOWS SHOULD END UP SIMILAR AS
WELL.  HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BEGIN
TO MAKE ITS PASS BETWEEN NC AND BERMUDA...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE ALONG THE COAST AND KEEP NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS STIRRED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.  ISOLATED POCKETS OF FOG ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CENTRAL NC WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL TO THE
EAST. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN AT THE SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE
GRADIENT...AND THUS THE WINDS...WILL BE WEAKER THAN TODAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS/WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. THE CONTINUED DRY AIR AT THE MID LEVELS AND NNE FLOW
AT THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
DAY/NIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS AND AN APPROX 15 METER INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BE APPROX 5 DEGREES OR SO HIGHER THAN TODAY...UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE AND BACK
AROUND TO MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS CRISTOBAL MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM NC. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S. -KC

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE BACKDOOR SURFACE
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR NE NC THU AFTERNOON... THEN CONTINUE
DROPPING SLOWLY TO THE SSW... TO BE SITUATED FROM NW NC TO THE SRN
OUTER BANKS BY LATE THU NIGHT. PRECISELY HOW FAR SSW THE FRONT GETS
WILL DEPEND ON THE DENSITY OF THE PARENT HIGH NOSING DOWN FROM
NY/PA. LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE
THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM... GIVEN THAT ANY DPVA WITHIN THE
FAIRLY WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MINOR. THE GFS SHOWS A THIN STRIP
OF MUCAPE UNDER 750 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA LATE THU/THU
NIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS MORE UNSTABLE (1000-1500 J/KG) WITH A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE (MORE TO THE SW) FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE
GFS HAS BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF... AND ITS LOWER CAPE MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT ITS DEW POINTS
ARE 5-8 DEGREES COOLER AND MORE REASONABLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
REMAIN WEAK... WITH HIGHEST VALUES NEAR 25 KTS ONLY OVER THE NE CWA.
WILL HOLD CLOSE TO EXISTING FORECAST CONVECTION CHANCES... WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF AFTERNOON STORMS FORMING OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS
DRIFTING TO THE ESE ACROSS THE NRN CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING GRADUALLY AND EXITING OVERNIGHT. COULD
SEE SMALL LINGERING CAPE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE DEW POINTS RECOVER.
GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT... HOLDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS ISOLATED STILL LOOKS
GOOD. MODELS KEEP TRENDING WARMER... GIVING THICKNESSES 10-15 M
ABOVE NORMAL AND WARMING STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WITH EACH RUN...
SUPPORTING ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS OF 89-93 AND LOWS 67-70. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...

FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE STALLED ACROSS
NC FROM NW TO THE CENTRAL COAST EARLY FRI... THEN START TO DISSOLVE
WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE PROGRESSIVE PARENT
HIGH TO THE NNE SHIFTS SWIFTLY OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW AND IMPROVED MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE DYING
FRONT MAY FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE NRN
CWA... ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING ALOFT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES... ALLOWING RIDGING
TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES... AND THIS WARMING AND
STABILIZATION ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS
WITH THICKNESSES INCHING UPWARD... AND HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN BE WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 90 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70.

FOR SAT-TUE: THE DRY WEATHER EARLY IN THIS PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO INCREASED STORM CHANCES HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MID LEVEL LOW NOW OVER NV WILL CONTINUE HEADING EASTWARD THEN
NORTHEAST... DAMPENING AS IT GETS DRAWN UP BY PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER SRN CANADA. STRONG RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST SAT... AND WITH THE SE/S LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
LIGHT... MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE SUBDUED. THE GFS DEPICTS MUCAPE
VALUES RISING TO 1000-1500 J/KG SAT... BUT THE SMALL DEEP LAYER
SHEAR UNDER 20 KTS WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/STRENGTH. AND THERE
MAY NOT BE ANY DISCERNIBLE BOUNDARY LEFT OVER CENTRAL NC TO FOCUS
CONVECTION. GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH FAIRLY DRY... SO WILL KEEP POPS SAT
UNDER CLIMATOLOGY AT LESS THAN 15%. THE DAMPENED WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN/SUN NIGHT... AND WHILE THIS MAY HELP TAMP
DOWN THE RIDGE A BIT... THE ENSUING SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS VERY
LIGHT. SURFACE LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER CENTRAL NC...
AND WITH IMPROVED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND RISING MLCAPE PREDICTIONS
TO 1500-2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... WE SHOULD SEE A SMALL
UPTICK IN CONVECTION CHANCES SUN/SUN NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODEL
DETAILS DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME BUT IT APPEARS THAT HEIGHTS WILL BE
ON THE SLOW RISE AGAIN MON/TUE... ALBEIT WITH A WEAK SHEAR AXIS
POSSIBLY LAYING BACK THROUGH THE WRN PIEDMONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO
LEAD TO A TREND BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL POPS...
SCATTERED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING... AND WILL RETAIN
CHANCE POPS MON EXTENDING THROUGH TUE. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO
HOLD ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10 M... SO WILL STAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM TUESDAY...

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BETWEEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE MIDWEST AND HURRICANE CRISTOBAL OFFSHORE...WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS...HOWEVER...A
LOW PROBABILITY OF THE REDEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY SUB-VFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND/OR CEILINGS AT KRWI/KFAY/KRDU LATE TONIGHT-EARLY
WED...THOUGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE - PARTICULARLY AT ANY ONE
TERMINAL - IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...
ALTERNATING PERIODS OF CALM AND LIGHT NE SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC WINDS ON WED.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS (8-12
KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS) AT EASTERN SITES MID-
MORNING TO MIDDAY WED...WHERE THE MSLP PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
RESIDUALLY TIGHT EARLY IN THE DAY...BETWEEN THE OVERHEAD SFC HIGH
AND THE OFFSHORE HURRICANE.

OUTLOOK: THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT FROM APPROACHING FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN A SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR STORM THU AND FRI...AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS IN BRIEF
NE FLOW THU NIGHT FROM KRWI AND ESPECIALLY POINTS NORTHEASTWARD...
INTO NE NC AND TIDEWATER VA. THE PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG WILL
ALSO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSUMES A MORE
SOUTHERLY (MOIST) COMPONENT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KC/BLS
SHORT TERM...KC/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 270045
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
845 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH WED. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
NC THU AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

THE WEATHER OVER CENTRAL NC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW...WHICH IN TURN YIELDS COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY
LOW HUMIDITIES. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE
BAHAMAS AT 18Z...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY
NORTHWEST ALONG BUT WELL OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE BIGGEST IMPACT IN CENTRAL NC WILL BE CONTINUED NNE WINDS...THE
STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT
THE SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFT/EVE. THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME MOISTURE MAY REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE EAST OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CONTINUED NE FLOW AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
SAME RANGE...UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CENTRAL NC WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL TO THE
EAST. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN AT THE SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE
GRADIENT...AND THUS THE WINDS...WILL BE WEAKER THAN TODAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS/WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. THE CONTINUED DRY AIR AT THE MID LEVELS AND NNE FLOW
AT THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
DAY/NIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS AND AN APPROX 15 METER INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BE APPROX 5 DEGREES OR SO HIGHER THAN TODAY...UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE AND BACK
AROUND TO MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS CRISTOBAL MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM NC. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S. -KC

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE BACKDOOR SURFACE
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR NE NC THU AFTERNOON... THEN CONTINUE
DROPPING SLOWLY TO THE SSW... TO BE SITUATED FROM NW NC TO THE SRN
OUTER BANKS BY LATE THU NIGHT. PRECISELY HOW FAR SSW THE FRONT GETS
WILL DEPEND ON THE DENSITY OF THE PARENT HIGH NOSING DOWN FROM
NY/PA. LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE
THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM... GIVEN THAT ANY DPVA WITHIN THE
FAIRLY WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MINOR. THE GFS SHOWS A THIN STRIP
OF MUCAPE UNDER 750 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA LATE THU/THU
NIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS MORE UNSTABLE (1000-1500 J/KG) WITH A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE (MORE TO THE SW) FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE
GFS HAS BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF... AND ITS LOWER CAPE MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT ITS DEW POINTS
ARE 5-8 DEGREES COOLER AND MORE REASONABLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
REMAIN WEAK... WITH HIGHEST VALUES NEAR 25 KTS ONLY OVER THE NE CWA.
WILL HOLD CLOSE TO EXISTING FORECAST CONVECTION CHANCES... WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF AFTERNOON STORMS FORMING OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS
DRIFTING TO THE ESE ACROSS THE NRN CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING GRADUALLY AND EXITING OVERNIGHT. COULD
SEE SMALL LINGERING CAPE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE DEW POINTS RECOVER.
GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT... HOLDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS ISOLATED STILL LOOKS
GOOD. MODELS KEEP TRENDING WARMER... GIVING THICKNESSES 10-15 M
ABOVE NORMAL AND WARMING STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WITH EACH RUN...
SUPPORTING ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS OF 89-93 AND LOWS 67-70. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...

FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE STALLED ACROSS
NC FROM NW TO THE CENTRAL COAST EARLY FRI... THEN START TO DISSOLVE
WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE PROGRESSIVE PARENT
HIGH TO THE NNE SHIFTS SWIFTLY OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW AND IMPROVED MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE DYING
FRONT MAY FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE NRN
CWA... ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING ALOFT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES... ALLOWING RIDGING
TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES... AND THIS WARMING AND
STABILIZATION ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS
WITH THICKNESSES INCHING UPWARD... AND HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN BE WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 90 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70.

FOR SAT-TUE: THE DRY WEATHER EARLY IN THIS PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO INCREASED STORM CHANCES HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MID LEVEL LOW NOW OVER NV WILL CONTINUE HEADING EASTWARD THEN
NORTHEAST... DAMPENING AS IT GETS DRAWN UP BY PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER SRN CANADA. STRONG RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST SAT... AND WITH THE SE/S LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
LIGHT... MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE SUBDUED. THE GFS DEPICTS MUCAPE
VALUES RISING TO 1000-1500 J/KG SAT... BUT THE SMALL DEEP LAYER
SHEAR UNDER 20 KTS WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/STRENGTH. AND THERE
MAY NOT BE ANY DISCERNIBLE BOUNDARY LEFT OVER CENTRAL NC TO FOCUS
CONVECTION. GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH FAIRLY DRY... SO WILL KEEP POPS SAT
UNDER CLIMATOLOGY AT LESS THAN 15%. THE DAMPENED WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN/SUN NIGHT... AND WHILE THIS MAY HELP TAMP
DOWN THE RIDGE A BIT... THE ENSUING SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS VERY
LIGHT. SURFACE LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER CENTRAL NC...
AND WITH IMPROVED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND RISING MLCAPE PREDICTIONS
TO 1500-2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... WE SHOULD SEE A SMALL
UPTICK IN CONVECTION CHANCES SUN/SUN NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODEL
DETAILS DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME BUT IT APPEARS THAT HEIGHTS WILL BE
ON THE SLOW RISE AGAIN MON/TUE... ALBEIT WITH A WEAK SHEAR AXIS
POSSIBLY LAYING BACK THROUGH THE WRN PIEDMONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO
LEAD TO A TREND BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL POPS...
SCATTERED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING... AND WILL RETAIN
CHANCE POPS MON EXTENDING THROUGH TUE. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO
HOLD ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10 M... SO WILL STAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM TUESDAY...

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BETWEEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE MIDWEST AND HURRICANE CRISTOBAL OFFSHORE...WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS...HOWEVER...A
LOW PROBABILITY OF THE REDEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY SUB-VFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND/OR CEILINGS AT KRWI/KFAY/KRDU LATE TONIGHT-EARLY
WED...THOUGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE - PARTICULARLY AT ANY ONE
TERMINAL - IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...
ALTERNATING PERIODS OF CALM AND LIGHT NE SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC WINDS ON WED.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS (8-12
KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS) AT EASTERN SITES MID-
MORNING TO MIDDAY WED...WHERE THE MSLP PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
RESIDUALLY TIGHT EARLY IN THE DAY...BETWEEN THE OVERHEAD SFC HIGH
AND THE OFFSHORE HURRICANE.

OUTLOOK: THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT FROM APPROACHING FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN A SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR STORM THU AND FRI...AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS IN BRIEF
NE FLOW THU NIGHT FROM KRWI AND ESPECIALLY POINTS NORTHEASTWARD...
INTO NE NC AND TIDEWATER VA. THE PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG WILL
ALSO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSUMES A MORE
SOUTHERLY (MOIST) COMPONENT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 270045
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
845 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH WED. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
NC THU AND THU NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

THE WEATHER OVER CENTRAL NC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW...WHICH IN TURN YIELDS COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY
LOW HUMIDITIES. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE
BAHAMAS AT 18Z...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY
NORTHWEST ALONG BUT WELL OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE BIGGEST IMPACT IN CENTRAL NC WILL BE CONTINUED NNE WINDS...THE
STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT
THE SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFT/EVE. THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME MOISTURE MAY REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE EAST OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CONTINUED NE FLOW AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
SAME RANGE...UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CENTRAL NC WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL TO THE
EAST. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN AT THE SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE
GRADIENT...AND THUS THE WINDS...WILL BE WEAKER THAN TODAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS/WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. THE CONTINUED DRY AIR AT THE MID LEVELS AND NNE FLOW
AT THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
DAY/NIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS AND AN APPROX 15 METER INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BE APPROX 5 DEGREES OR SO HIGHER THAN TODAY...UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE AND BACK
AROUND TO MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS CRISTOBAL MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM NC. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S. -KC

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE BACKDOOR SURFACE
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR NE NC THU AFTERNOON... THEN CONTINUE
DROPPING SLOWLY TO THE SSW... TO BE SITUATED FROM NW NC TO THE SRN
OUTER BANKS BY LATE THU NIGHT. PRECISELY HOW FAR SSW THE FRONT GETS
WILL DEPEND ON THE DENSITY OF THE PARENT HIGH NOSING DOWN FROM
NY/PA. LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE
THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM... GIVEN THAT ANY DPVA WITHIN THE
FAIRLY WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MINOR. THE GFS SHOWS A THIN STRIP
OF MUCAPE UNDER 750 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA LATE THU/THU
NIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS MORE UNSTABLE (1000-1500 J/KG) WITH A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE (MORE TO THE SW) FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE
GFS HAS BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF... AND ITS LOWER CAPE MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT ITS DEW POINTS
ARE 5-8 DEGREES COOLER AND MORE REASONABLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
REMAIN WEAK... WITH HIGHEST VALUES NEAR 25 KTS ONLY OVER THE NE CWA.
WILL HOLD CLOSE TO EXISTING FORECAST CONVECTION CHANCES... WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF AFTERNOON STORMS FORMING OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS
DRIFTING TO THE ESE ACROSS THE NRN CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING GRADUALLY AND EXITING OVERNIGHT. COULD
SEE SMALL LINGERING CAPE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE DEW POINTS RECOVER.
GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT... HOLDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS ISOLATED STILL LOOKS
GOOD. MODELS KEEP TRENDING WARMER... GIVING THICKNESSES 10-15 M
ABOVE NORMAL AND WARMING STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WITH EACH RUN...
SUPPORTING ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS OF 89-93 AND LOWS 67-70. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...

FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE STALLED ACROSS
NC FROM NW TO THE CENTRAL COAST EARLY FRI... THEN START TO DISSOLVE
WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE PROGRESSIVE PARENT
HIGH TO THE NNE SHIFTS SWIFTLY OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW AND IMPROVED MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE DYING
FRONT MAY FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE NRN
CWA... ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING ALOFT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES... ALLOWING RIDGING
TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES... AND THIS WARMING AND
STABILIZATION ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS
WITH THICKNESSES INCHING UPWARD... AND HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN BE WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 90 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70.

FOR SAT-TUE: THE DRY WEATHER EARLY IN THIS PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO INCREASED STORM CHANCES HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MID LEVEL LOW NOW OVER NV WILL CONTINUE HEADING EASTWARD THEN
NORTHEAST... DAMPENING AS IT GETS DRAWN UP BY PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER SRN CANADA. STRONG RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST SAT... AND WITH THE SE/S LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
LIGHT... MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE SUBDUED. THE GFS DEPICTS MUCAPE
VALUES RISING TO 1000-1500 J/KG SAT... BUT THE SMALL DEEP LAYER
SHEAR UNDER 20 KTS WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/STRENGTH. AND THERE
MAY NOT BE ANY DISCERNIBLE BOUNDARY LEFT OVER CENTRAL NC TO FOCUS
CONVECTION. GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH FAIRLY DRY... SO WILL KEEP POPS SAT
UNDER CLIMATOLOGY AT LESS THAN 15%. THE DAMPENED WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN/SUN NIGHT... AND WHILE THIS MAY HELP TAMP
DOWN THE RIDGE A BIT... THE ENSUING SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS VERY
LIGHT. SURFACE LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER CENTRAL NC...
AND WITH IMPROVED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND RISING MLCAPE PREDICTIONS
TO 1500-2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... WE SHOULD SEE A SMALL
UPTICK IN CONVECTION CHANCES SUN/SUN NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODEL
DETAILS DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME BUT IT APPEARS THAT HEIGHTS WILL BE
ON THE SLOW RISE AGAIN MON/TUE... ALBEIT WITH A WEAK SHEAR AXIS
POSSIBLY LAYING BACK THROUGH THE WRN PIEDMONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO
LEAD TO A TREND BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL POPS...
SCATTERED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING... AND WILL RETAIN
CHANCE POPS MON EXTENDING THROUGH TUE. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO
HOLD ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10 M... SO WILL STAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 840 PM TUESDAY...

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...BETWEEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE MIDWEST AND HURRICANE CRISTOBAL OFFSHORE...WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS...HOWEVER...A
LOW PROBABILITY OF THE REDEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY SUB-VFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND/OR CEILINGS AT KRWI/KFAY/KRDU LATE TONIGHT-EARLY
WED...THOUGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE - PARTICULARLY AT ANY ONE
TERMINAL - IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...
ALTERNATING PERIODS OF CALM AND LIGHT NE SFC WINDS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY SFC WINDS ON WED.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS (8-12
KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS) AT EASTERN SITES MID-
MORNING TO MIDDAY WED...WHERE THE MSLP PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
RESIDUALLY TIGHT EARLY IN THE DAY...BETWEEN THE OVERHEAD SFC HIGH
AND THE OFFSHORE HURRICANE.

OUTLOOK: THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT FROM APPROACHING FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN A SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR STORM THU AND FRI...AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS IN BRIEF
NE FLOW THU NIGHT FROM KRWI AND ESPECIALLY POINTS NORTHEASTWARD...
INTO NE NC AND TIDEWATER VA. THE PROBABILITY OF PATCHY FOG WILL
ALSO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND...AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSUMES A MORE
SOUTHERLY (MOIST) COMPONENT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 261844
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
244 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

THE WEATHER OVER CENTRAL NC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW...WHICH IN TURN YIELDS COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY
LOW HUMIDITIES. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE
BAHAMAS AT 18Z...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY
NORTHWEST ALONG BUT WELL OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE BIGGEST IMPACT IN CENTRAL NC WILL BE CONTINUED NNE WINDS...THE
STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT
THE SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFT/EVE. THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME MOISTURE MAY REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE EAST OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CONTINUED NE FLOW AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
SAME RANGE...UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CENTRAL NC WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL TO THE
EAST. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN AT THE SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE
GRADIENT...AND THUS THE WINDS...WILL BE WEAKER THAN TODAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS/WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. THE CONTINUED DRY AIR AT THE MID LEVELS AND NNE FLOW
AT THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
DAY/NIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS AND AN APPROX 15 METER INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BE APPROX 5 DEGREES OR SO HIGHER THAN TODAY...UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE AND BACK
AROUND TO MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS CRISTOBAL MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM NC. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S. -KC

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE BACKDOOR SURFACE
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR NE NC THU AFTERNOON... THEN CONTINUE
DROPPING SLOWLY TO THE SSW... TO BE SITUATED FROM NW NC TO THE SRN
OUTER BANKS BY LATE THU NIGHT. PRECISELY HOW FAR SSW THE FRONT GETS
WILL DEPEND ON THE DENSITY OF THE PARENT HIGH NOSING DOWN FROM
NY/PA. LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE
THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM... GIVEN THAT ANY DPVA WITHIN THE
FAIRLY WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MINOR. THE GFS SHOWS A THIN STRIP
OF MUCAPE UNDER 750 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA LATE THU/THU
NIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS MORE UNSTABLE (1000-1500 J/KG) WITH A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE (MORE TO THE SW) FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE
GFS HAS BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF... AND ITS LOWER CAPE MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT ITS DEW POINTS
ARE 5-8 DEGREES COOLER AND MORE REASONABLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
REMAIN WEAK... WITH HIGHEST VALUES NEAR 25 KTS ONLY OVER THE NE CWA.
WILL HOLD CLOSE TO EXISTING FORECAST CONVECTION CHANCES... WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF AFTERNOON STORMS FORMING OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS
DRIFTING TO THE ESE ACROSS THE NRN CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING GRADUALLY AND EXITING OVERNIGHT. COULD
SEE SMALL LINGERING CAPE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE DEW POINTS RECOVER.
GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT... HOLDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS ISOLATED STILL LOOKS
GOOD. MODELS KEEP TRENDING WARMER... GIVING THICKNESSES 10-15 M
ABOVE NORMAL AND WARMING STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WITH EACH RUN...
SUPPORTING ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS OF 89-93 AND LOWS 67-70. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...

FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE STALLED ACROSS
NC FROM NW TO THE CENTRAL COAST EARLY FRI... THEN START TO DISSOLVE
WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE PROGRESSIVE PARENT
HIGH TO THE NNE SHIFTS SWIFTLY OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW AND IMPROVED MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE DYING
FRONT MAY FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE NRN
CWA... ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING ALOFT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES... ALLOWING RIDGING
TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES... AND THIS WARMING AND
STABILIZATION ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS
WITH THICKNESSES INCHING UPWARD... AND HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN BE WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 90 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70.

FOR SAT-TUE: THE DRY WEATHER EARLY IN THIS PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO INCREASED STORM CHANCES HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MID LEVEL LOW NOW OVER NV WILL CONTINUE HEADING EASTWARD THEN
NORTHEAST... DAMPENING AS IT GETS DRAWN UP BY PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER SRN CANADA. STRONG RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST SAT... AND WITH THE SE/S LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
LIGHT... MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE SUBDUED. THE GFS DEPICTS MUCAPE
VALUES RISING TO 1000-1500 J/KG SAT... BUT THE SMALL DEEP LAYER
SHEAR UNDER 20 KTS WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/STRENGTH. AND THERE
MAY NOT BE ANY DISCERNIBLE BOUNDARY LEFT OVER CENTRAL NC TO FOCUS
CONVECTION. GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH FAIRLY DRY... SO WILL KEEP POPS SAT
UNDER CLIMATOLOGY AT LESS THAN 15%. THE DAMPENED WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN/SUN NIGHT... AND WHILE THIS MAY HELP TAMP
DOWN THE RIDGE A BIT... THE ENSUING SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS VERY
LIGHT. SURFACE LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER CENTRAL NC...
AND WITH IMPROVED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND RISING MLCAPE PREDICTIONS
TO 1500-2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... WE SHOULD SEE A SMALL
UPTICK IN CONVECTION CHANCES SUN/SUN NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODEL
DETAILS DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME BUT IT APPEARS THAT HEIGHTS WILL BE
ON THE SLOW RISE AGAIN MON/TUE... ALBEIT WITH A WEAK SHEAR AXIS
POSSIBLY LAYING BACK THROUGH THE WRN PIEDMONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO
LEAD TO A TREND BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL POPS...
SCATTERED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING... AND WILL RETAIN
CHANCE POPS MON EXTENDING THROUGH TUE. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO
HOLD ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10 M... SO WILL STAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING IN
DRY NE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING
CIGS AROUND 3 KFT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE CURRENT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND LIFT TO AROUND 3.5-4 KFT THIS AFT/EVE.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT 8-12 KTS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
INTERMITTENT GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS THROUGH SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THEREAFTER. THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED IN
THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (KRDU AND
KRWI)...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SUB-VFR VISBYS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THIS ISSUANCE.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE CAROLINAS. A SMALL CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH WILL RETURN THU/FRI AS
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE ALONG A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT AS DRIFTS SOUTH
TOWARD THE REGION...THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL PREVAIL AT
MOST (IF NOT ALL) TERMINALS. CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES UNDER SW FLOW.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KC




000
FXUS62 KRAH 261844
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
244 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

THE WEATHER OVER CENTRAL NC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW...WHICH IN TURN YIELDS COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY
LOW HUMIDITIES. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE
BAHAMAS AT 18Z...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY
NORTHWEST ALONG BUT WELL OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE BIGGEST IMPACT IN CENTRAL NC WILL BE CONTINUED NNE WINDS...THE
STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT
THE SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFT/EVE. THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME MOISTURE MAY REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE EAST OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CONTINUED NE FLOW AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
SAME RANGE...UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CENTRAL NC WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL TO THE
EAST. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN AT THE SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE
GRADIENT...AND THUS THE WINDS...WILL BE WEAKER THAN TODAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS/WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. THE CONTINUED DRY AIR AT THE MID LEVELS AND NNE FLOW
AT THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
DAY/NIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF CLOUDS AND AN APPROX 15 METER INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BE APPROX 5 DEGREES OR SO HIGHER THAN TODAY...UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE AND BACK
AROUND TO MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS CRISTOBAL MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM NC. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S. -KC

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE BACKDOOR SURFACE
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR NE NC THU AFTERNOON... THEN CONTINUE
DROPPING SLOWLY TO THE SSW... TO BE SITUATED FROM NW NC TO THE SRN
OUTER BANKS BY LATE THU NIGHT. PRECISELY HOW FAR SSW THE FRONT GETS
WILL DEPEND ON THE DENSITY OF THE PARENT HIGH NOSING DOWN FROM
NY/PA. LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE
THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM... GIVEN THAT ANY DPVA WITHIN THE
FAIRLY WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MINOR. THE GFS SHOWS A THIN STRIP
OF MUCAPE UNDER 750 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA LATE THU/THU
NIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS MORE UNSTABLE (1000-1500 J/KG) WITH A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE (MORE TO THE SW) FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE
GFS HAS BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF... AND ITS LOWER CAPE MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT ITS DEW POINTS
ARE 5-8 DEGREES COOLER AND MORE REASONABLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
REMAIN WEAK... WITH HIGHEST VALUES NEAR 25 KTS ONLY OVER THE NE CWA.
WILL HOLD CLOSE TO EXISTING FORECAST CONVECTION CHANCES... WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF AFTERNOON STORMS FORMING OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS
DRIFTING TO THE ESE ACROSS THE NRN CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING GRADUALLY AND EXITING OVERNIGHT. COULD
SEE SMALL LINGERING CAPE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE DEW POINTS RECOVER.
GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT... HOLDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS ISOLATED STILL LOOKS
GOOD. MODELS KEEP TRENDING WARMER... GIVING THICKNESSES 10-15 M
ABOVE NORMAL AND WARMING STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WITH EACH RUN...
SUPPORTING ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS OF 89-93 AND LOWS 67-70. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...

FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE STALLED ACROSS
NC FROM NW TO THE CENTRAL COAST EARLY FRI... THEN START TO DISSOLVE
WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE PROGRESSIVE PARENT
HIGH TO THE NNE SHIFTS SWIFTLY OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW AND IMPROVED MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE DYING
FRONT MAY FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE NRN
CWA... ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING ALOFT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES... ALLOWING RIDGING
TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES... AND THIS WARMING AND
STABILIZATION ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS
WITH THICKNESSES INCHING UPWARD... AND HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN BE WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 90 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70.

FOR SAT-TUE: THE DRY WEATHER EARLY IN THIS PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO INCREASED STORM CHANCES HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MID LEVEL LOW NOW OVER NV WILL CONTINUE HEADING EASTWARD THEN
NORTHEAST... DAMPENING AS IT GETS DRAWN UP BY PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER SRN CANADA. STRONG RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST SAT... AND WITH THE SE/S LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
LIGHT... MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE SUBDUED. THE GFS DEPICTS MUCAPE
VALUES RISING TO 1000-1500 J/KG SAT... BUT THE SMALL DEEP LAYER
SHEAR UNDER 20 KTS WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/STRENGTH. AND THERE
MAY NOT BE ANY DISCERNIBLE BOUNDARY LEFT OVER CENTRAL NC TO FOCUS
CONVECTION. GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH FAIRLY DRY... SO WILL KEEP POPS SAT
UNDER CLIMATOLOGY AT LESS THAN 15%. THE DAMPENED WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN/SUN NIGHT... AND WHILE THIS MAY HELP TAMP
DOWN THE RIDGE A BIT... THE ENSUING SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS VERY
LIGHT. SURFACE LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER CENTRAL NC...
AND WITH IMPROVED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND RISING MLCAPE PREDICTIONS
TO 1500-2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... WE SHOULD SEE A SMALL
UPTICK IN CONVECTION CHANCES SUN/SUN NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODEL
DETAILS DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME BUT IT APPEARS THAT HEIGHTS WILL BE
ON THE SLOW RISE AGAIN MON/TUE... ALBEIT WITH A WEAK SHEAR AXIS
POSSIBLY LAYING BACK THROUGH THE WRN PIEDMONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO
LEAD TO A TREND BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL POPS...
SCATTERED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING... AND WILL RETAIN
CHANCE POPS MON EXTENDING THROUGH TUE. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO
HOLD ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10 M... SO WILL STAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING IN
DRY NE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING
CIGS AROUND 3 KFT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE CURRENT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND LIFT TO AROUND 3.5-4 KFT THIS AFT/EVE.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT 8-12 KTS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
INTERMITTENT GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS THROUGH SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THEREAFTER. THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED IN
THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (KRDU AND
KRWI)...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SUB-VFR VISBYS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THIS ISSUANCE.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE CAROLINAS. A SMALL CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH WILL RETURN THU/FRI AS
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE ALONG A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT AS DRIFTS SOUTH
TOWARD THE REGION...THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL PREVAIL AT
MOST (IF NOT ALL) TERMINALS. CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES UNDER SW FLOW.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KC





000
FXUS62 KRAH 261751
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
150 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEATHER OVER CENTRAL NC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...APPROX OVER MO/IL. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...WHICH IN TURN YIELDS COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITIES. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AT 12Z TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST ALONG BUT WELL OFF THE SE ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST IMPACT IN CENTRAL NC WILL BE
CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST AND WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED LOW TO
MID CLOUDS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED IN
THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT COULD YIELD SOME OVERCAST SKIES IN THE
EAST. WITH THE CONTINUED NE FLOW AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES...EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE SAME RANGE...UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. -KC

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY (AS OF 250 AM): HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AND PASS AROUND 500 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE NC COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THUS...EXPECT NO IMPACT FROM THE PASSING TROPICAL SYSTEM
FOR CENTRAL NC...EXCEPT A POSSIBLE ENHANCED OF THE TEMPS ON THE WARM
SIDE OVER OUR AREA. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME 15 TO 25 METERS ON WEDNESDAY...VS TODAY.
THUS...HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 90/LOWER
90S...AND WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW MID 90S. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE AREA. -BSD

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE BACKDOOR SURFACE
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR NE NC THU AFTERNOON... THEN CONTINUE
DROPPING SLOWLY TO THE SSW... TO BE SITUATED FROM NW NC TO THE SRN
OUTER BANKS BY LATE THU NIGHT. PRECISELY HOW FAR SSW THE FRONT GETS
WILL DEPEND ON THE DENSITY OF THE PARENT HIGH NOSING DOWN FROM
NY/PA. LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE
THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM... GIVEN THAT ANY DPVA WITHIN THE
FAIRLY WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MINOR. THE GFS SHOWS A THIN STRIP
OF MUCAPE UNDER 750 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA LATE THU/THU
NIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS MORE UNSTABLE (1000-1500 J/KG) WITH A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE (MORE TO THE SW) FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE
GFS HAS BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
ECMWF... AND ITS LOWER CAPE MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT ITS DEW POINTS
ARE 5-8 DEGREES COOLER AND MORE REASONABLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
REMAIN WEAK... WITH HIGHEST VALUES NEAR 25 KTS ONLY OVER THE NE CWA.
WILL HOLD CLOSE TO EXISTING FORECAST CONVECTION CHANCES... WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF AFTERNOON STORMS FORMING OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS
DRIFTING TO THE ESE ACROSS THE NRN CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING GRADUALLY AND EXITING OVERNIGHT. COULD
SEE SMALL LINGERING CAPE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE DEW POINTS RECOVER.
GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT... HOLDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS ISOLATED STILL LOOKS
GOOD. MODELS KEEP TRENDING WARMER... GIVING THICKNESSES 10-15 M
ABOVE NORMAL AND WARMING STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WITH EACH RUN...
SUPPORTING ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS OF 89-93 AND LOWS 67-70. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...

FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE STALLED ACROSS
NC FROM NW TO THE CENTRAL COAST EARLY FRI... THEN START TO DISSOLVE
WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE PROGRESSIVE PARENT
HIGH TO THE NNE SHIFTS SWIFTLY OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW AND IMPROVED MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE DYING
FRONT MAY FUEL ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE NRN
CWA... ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING ALOFT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES... ALLOWING RIDGING
TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES... AND THIS WARMING AND
STABILIZATION ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS
WITH THICKNESSES INCHING UPWARD... AND HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN BE WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 90 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70.

FOR SAT-TUE: THE DRY WEATHER EARLY IN THIS PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY
GIVE WAY TO INCREASED STORM CHANCES HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MID LEVEL LOW NOW OVER NV WILL CONTINUE HEADING EASTWARD THEN
NORTHEAST... DAMPENING AS IT GETS DRAWN UP BY PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER SRN CANADA. STRONG RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST SAT... AND WITH THE SE/S LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
LIGHT... MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE SUBDUED. THE GFS DEPICTS MUCAPE
VALUES RISING TO 1000-1500 J/KG SAT... BUT THE SMALL DEEP LAYER
SHEAR UNDER 20 KTS WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/STRENGTH. AND THERE
MAY NOT BE ANY DISCERNIBLE BOUNDARY LEFT OVER CENTRAL NC TO FOCUS
CONVECTION. GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH FAIRLY DRY... SO WILL KEEP POPS SAT
UNDER CLIMATOLOGY AT LESS THAN 15%. THE DAMPENED WAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SUN/SUN NIGHT... AND WHILE THIS MAY HELP TAMP
DOWN THE RIDGE A BIT... THE ENSUING SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS VERY
LIGHT. SURFACE LEE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER CENTRAL NC...
AND WITH IMPROVED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND RISING MLCAPE PREDICTIONS
TO 1500-2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... WE SHOULD SEE A SMALL
UPTICK IN CONVECTION CHANCES SUN/SUN NIGHT. OPERATIONAL MODEL
DETAILS DIVERGE AFTER THIS TIME BUT IT APPEARS THAT HEIGHTS WILL BE
ON THE SLOW RISE AGAIN MON/TUE... ALBEIT WITH A WEAK SHEAR AXIS
POSSIBLY LAYING BACK THROUGH THE WRN PIEDMONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO
LEAD TO A TREND BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL POPS...
SCATTERED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING... AND WILL RETAIN
CHANCE POPS MON EXTENDING THROUGH TUE. THICKNESSES ARE PROJECTED TO
HOLD ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 10 M... SO WILL STAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING IN
DRY NE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING
CIGS AROUND 3 KFT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE CURRENT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND LIFT TO AROUND 3.5-4 KFT THIS AFT/EVE.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT 8-12 KTS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
INTERMITTENT GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS THROUGH SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THEREAFTER. THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED IN
THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (KRDU AND
KRWI)...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SUB-VFR VISBYS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THIS ISSUANCE.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE CAROLINAS. A SMALL CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH WILL RETURN THU/FRI AS
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE ALONG A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT AS DRIFTS SOUTH
TOWARD THE REGION...THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL PREVAIL AT
MOST (IF NOT ALL) TERMINALS. CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES UNDER SW FLOW.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...BSD/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KC





000
FXUS62 KRAH 261730
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEATHER OVER CENTRAL NC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...APPROX OVER MO/IL. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...WHICH IN TURN YIELDS COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITIES. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AT 12Z TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST ALONG BUT WELL OFF THE SE ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST IMPACT IN CENTRAL NC WILL BE
CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST AND WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED LOW TO
MID CLOUDS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED IN
THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT COULD YIELD SOME OVERCAST SKIES IN THE
EAST. WITH THE CONTINUED NE FLOW AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES...EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE SAME RANGE...UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. -KC

WEDNESDAY (AS OF 250 AM): HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AND PASS AROUND 500 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE NC COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THUS...EXPECT NO IMPACT FROM THE PASSING TROPICAL SYSTEM
FOR CENTRAL NC...EXCEPT A POSSIBLE ENHANCED OF THE TEMPS ON THE
WARM SIDE OVER OUR AREA. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME 15 TO 25 METERS ON WEDNESDAY...VS TODAY.
THUS...HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 90/LOWER
90S...AND WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW MID 90S. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE AREA. -BSD

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

A S/W CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES/NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY WILL SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARD CENTRAL
NC...POSSIBLY DRIFTING INTO THE FAR NORTH-NE COUNTIES BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A WEAK VORT MAX PROJECTED TO CROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VA LATE THU-THU NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL POOL IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THU-THU NIGHT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. OTHERWISE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC APPEARS TOO DRY AND TOO WARM IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...IF MID LEVEL CAP WEAKER THAN PROJECTED...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A STORM OR TWO MAKE A RUN AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY
64 THURSDAY EVENING. THICKNESSES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AVERAGE 12-15M
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 90-95
DEGREE RANGE. MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S...AND THE UPPER 60S-AROUND 70 THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES DIFFUSE WHILE MID-UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SUGGEST A WARM AND DRY
FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED STORM LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING IN
VICINITY OF THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY.  MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS MAY
OCCUR...TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED DURING THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF S/W
LIFTING NE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.
ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD
REMAIN NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED. BY SUNDAY...MODEST HEIGHT FALLS PLUS
AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LABOR DAY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WITH THE LOW-MID LEVEL
FLOW TAPPING MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN GULF.

MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY "COOL" AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES. IN
ADDITION...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS...MORE
TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY NEAR 90-LOWER 90S DROP TO
THE MID 80S-UPPER 80S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING IN
DRY NE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING
CIGS AROUND 3 KFT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE CURRENT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND LIFT TO AROUND 3.5-4 KFT THIS AFT/EVE.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT 8-12 KTS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
INTERMITTENT GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS THROUGH SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THEREAFTER. THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED IN
THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (KRDU AND
KRWI)...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SUB-VFR VISBYS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THIS ISSUANCE.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE CAROLINAS. A SMALL CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH WILL RETURN THU/FRI AS
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE ALONG A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT AS DRIFTS SOUTH
TOWARD THE REGION...THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL PREVAIL AT
MOST (IF NOT ALL) TERMINALS. CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES UNDER SW FLOW.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...KC/BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...KC





000
FXUS62 KRAH 261730
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEATHER OVER CENTRAL NC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...APPROX OVER MO/IL. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...WHICH IN TURN YIELDS COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITIES. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AT 12Z TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST ALONG BUT WELL OFF THE SE ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST IMPACT IN CENTRAL NC WILL BE
CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST AND WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED LOW TO
MID CLOUDS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED IN
THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT COULD YIELD SOME OVERCAST SKIES IN THE
EAST. WITH THE CONTINUED NE FLOW AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES...EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE SAME RANGE...UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. -KC

WEDNESDAY (AS OF 250 AM): HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AND PASS AROUND 500 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE NC COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THUS...EXPECT NO IMPACT FROM THE PASSING TROPICAL SYSTEM
FOR CENTRAL NC...EXCEPT A POSSIBLE ENHANCED OF THE TEMPS ON THE
WARM SIDE OVER OUR AREA. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME 15 TO 25 METERS ON WEDNESDAY...VS TODAY.
THUS...HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 90/LOWER
90S...AND WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW MID 90S. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE AREA. -BSD

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

A S/W CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES/NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY WILL SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARD CENTRAL
NC...POSSIBLY DRIFTING INTO THE FAR NORTH-NE COUNTIES BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A WEAK VORT MAX PROJECTED TO CROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VA LATE THU-THU NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL POOL IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THU-THU NIGHT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. OTHERWISE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC APPEARS TOO DRY AND TOO WARM IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...IF MID LEVEL CAP WEAKER THAN PROJECTED...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A STORM OR TWO MAKE A RUN AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY
64 THURSDAY EVENING. THICKNESSES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AVERAGE 12-15M
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 90-95
DEGREE RANGE. MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S...AND THE UPPER 60S-AROUND 70 THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES DIFFUSE WHILE MID-UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SUGGEST A WARM AND DRY
FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED STORM LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING IN
VICINITY OF THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY.  MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS MAY
OCCUR...TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED DURING THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF S/W
LIFTING NE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.
ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD
REMAIN NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED. BY SUNDAY...MODEST HEIGHT FALLS PLUS
AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LABOR DAY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WITH THE LOW-MID LEVEL
FLOW TAPPING MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN GULF.

MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY "COOL" AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES. IN
ADDITION...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS...MORE
TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY NEAR 90-LOWER 90S DROP TO
THE MID 80S-UPPER 80S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE...RESULTING IN
DRY NE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING
CIGS AROUND 3 KFT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE CURRENT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND LIFT TO AROUND 3.5-4 KFT THIS AFT/EVE.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT 8-12 KTS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
INTERMITTENT GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS THROUGH SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THEREAFTER. THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED IN
THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (KRDU AND
KRWI)...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SUB-VFR VISBYS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THIS ISSUANCE.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE CAROLINAS. A SMALL CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH WILL RETURN THU/FRI AS
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE ALONG A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT AS DRIFTS SOUTH
TOWARD THE REGION...THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL PREVAIL AT
MOST (IF NOT ALL) TERMINALS. CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES UNDER SW FLOW.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...KC/BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...KC




000
FXUS62 KRAH 261431
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1031 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEATHER OVER CENTRAL NC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...APPROX OVER MO/IL. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...WHICH IN TURN YIELDS COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITIES. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AT 12Z TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST ALONG BUT WELL OFF THE SE ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST IMPACT IN CENTRAL NC WILL BE
CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST AND WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED LOW TO
MID CLOUDS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED IN
THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT COULD YIELD SOME OVERCAST SKIES IN THE
EAST. WITH THE CONTINUED NE FLOW AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES...EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE SAME RANGE...UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. -KC

WEDNESDAY (AS OF 250 AM): HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AND PASS AROUND 500 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE NC COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THUS...EXPECT NO IMPACT FROM THE PASSING TROPICAL SYSTEM
FOR CENTRAL NC...EXCEPT A POSSIBLE ENHANCED OF THE TEMPS ON THE
WARM SIDE OVER OUR AREA. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME 15 TO 25 METERS ON WEDNESDAY...VS TODAY.
THUS...HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 90/LOWER
90S...AND WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW MID 90S. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE AREA. -BSD

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

A S/W CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES/NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY WILL SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARD CENTRAL
NC...POSSIBLY DRIFTING INTO THE FAR NORTH-NE COUNTIES BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A WEAK VORT MAX PROJECTED TO CROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VA LATE THU-THU NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL POOL IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THU-THU NIGHT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. OTHERWISE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC APPEARS TOO DRY AND TOO WARM IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...IF MID LEVEL CAP WEAKER THAN PROJECTED...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A STORM OR TWO MAKE A RUN AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY
64 THURSDAY EVENING. THICKNESSES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AVERAGE 12-15M
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 90-95
DEGREE RANGE. MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S...AND THE UPPER 60S-AROUND 70 THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES DIFFUSE WHILE MID-UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SUGGEST A WARM AND DRY
FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED STORM LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING IN
VICINITY OF THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY.  MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS MAY
OCCUR...TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED DURING THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF S/W
LIFTING NE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.
ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD
REMAIN NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED. BY SUNDAY...MODEST HEIGHT FALLS PLUS
AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LABOR DAY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WITH THE LOW-MID LEVEL
FLOW TAPPING MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN GULF.

MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY "COOL" AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES. IN
ADDITION...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS...MORE
TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY NEAR 90-LOWER 90S DROP TO
THE MID 80S-UPPER 80S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM TUESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH
A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS.

GIVEN A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TODAY... DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP
WITH SURFACE HEATING THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE 2-3.5 KFT RANGE DURING THE MID
MORNING... BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY SUB-VFR BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUD COVER
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS RANGING FROM 6-8 KTS AT KGSO/KINT TO 9-12 KTS
ELSEWHERE ARE EXCEPTED TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY SUB-VFR VISBYS WEDNESDAY MORNING... AS WE SHOULD HAVE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. KRWI... WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING SOME SUB-VFR VISBYS.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE CAROLINAS. A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION WILL RETURN THU/FRI AS A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DRIFTS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL
PREVAIL AT MOST (IF NOT ALL) TERMINALS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...KC/BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 261431
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1031 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEATHER OVER CENTRAL NC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST...APPROX OVER MO/IL. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...WHICH IN TURN YIELDS COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITIES. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AT 12Z TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST ALONG BUT WELL OFF THE SE ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST IMPACT IN CENTRAL NC WILL BE
CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST AND WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED LOW TO
MID CLOUDS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED IN
THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT COULD YIELD SOME OVERCAST SKIES IN THE
EAST. WITH THE CONTINUED NE FLOW AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES...EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE SAME RANGE...UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. -KC

WEDNESDAY (AS OF 250 AM): HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHWARD AND PASS AROUND 500 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE NC COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THUS...EXPECT NO IMPACT FROM THE PASSING TROPICAL SYSTEM
FOR CENTRAL NC...EXCEPT A POSSIBLE ENHANCED OF THE TEMPS ON THE
WARM SIDE OVER OUR AREA. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME 15 TO 25 METERS ON WEDNESDAY...VS TODAY.
THUS...HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 90/LOWER
90S...AND WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW MID 90S. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AS VERY STABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE AREA. -BSD

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

A S/W CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES/NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY WILL SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARD CENTRAL
NC...POSSIBLY DRIFTING INTO THE FAR NORTH-NE COUNTIES BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A WEAK VORT MAX PROJECTED TO CROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL VA LATE THU-THU NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL POOL IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THU-THU NIGHT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. OTHERWISE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC APPEARS TOO DRY AND TOO WARM IN THE MID
LEVELS TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...IF MID LEVEL CAP WEAKER THAN PROJECTED...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A STORM OR TWO MAKE A RUN AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY
64 THURSDAY EVENING. THICKNESSES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AVERAGE 12-15M
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE 90-95
DEGREE RANGE. MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S...AND THE UPPER 60S-AROUND 70 THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES DIFFUSE WHILE MID-UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SUGGEST A WARM AND DRY
FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED STORM LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING IN
VICINITY OF THE OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY.  MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS MAY
OCCUR...TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED DURING THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF S/W
LIFTING NE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.
ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD
REMAIN NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED. BY SUNDAY...MODEST HEIGHT FALLS PLUS
AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LABOR DAY WILL
LIKELY SEE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WITH THE LOW-MID LEVEL
FLOW TAPPING MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN GULF.

MAX TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY "COOL" AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES. IN
ADDITION...WILL SEE A RETURN OF HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS...MORE
TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY NEAR 90-LOWER 90S DROP TO
THE MID 80S-UPPER 80S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM TUESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH
A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS.

GIVEN A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TODAY... DO NOT EXPECT AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP
WITH SURFACE HEATING THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE 2-3.5 KFT RANGE DURING THE MID
MORNING... BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY SUB-VFR BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUD COVER
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS RANGING FROM 6-8 KTS AT KGSO/KINT TO 9-12 KTS
ELSEWHERE ARE EXCEPTED TODAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY SUB-VFR VISBYS WEDNESDAY MORNING... AS WE SHOULD HAVE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. KRWI... WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING SOME SUB-VFR VISBYS.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE CAROLINAS. A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION WILL RETURN THU/FRI AS A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DRIFTS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL
PREVAIL AT MOST (IF NOT ALL) TERMINALS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...KC/BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/VINCENT





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities