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000
FXUS62 KRAH 071922
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS. LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES THE SLOW
MOVING SHEAR AXIS ALOFT IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND IT WILL LIKELY BE LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT UNTIL THIS
FEATURE EXITS CENTRAL NC. DEW POINTS RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG
IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
PRETTY ANEMIC...RANGING AROUND 5.5 DEG C/KM. STILL IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC HAS DRIED CONSIDERABLY IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.3 INCHES IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AND 1.6 INCHES IN THE EAST.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS WITH THE DEEPEST VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT LOCATED ALONG
THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE SEA BREEZE...ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OWING TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS WILL INCREASE A BIT
DURING NEXT FEW HOURS BUT GIVEN THE LIMITED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
MODEST INSTABILITY...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. THE CONVECTION
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE OVERALL REGION OF SHOWERS
GENERALLY TRANSITIONING EAST. WILL KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE AND GENERALLY LOCATED ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 1.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD WANE WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 NEAR THE VA BORDER TO 73 NEAR THE SC
BORDER WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND.
-BLAES/CAMPBELL
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE PERIOD WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
WEDNESDAY SHEARS NORTHEAST ATOP THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SETTLES NORTH OF OUR AREA IN AN EAST TO WEST
AXIS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE UPPER FLOW
PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL POSITION IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE MUCH
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS PROGGED
TO RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE IN PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY ENHANCING AREA OF CONVECTION TO OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH.

THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO REBOUND AND RANGE BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9
INCHES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE AN AIRMASS MORE
THERMODYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION BUT STILL LACKING A WELL
DEFINED TRIGGER. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND NEAR THE SEABREEZE IN THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. MOST CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE
SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION THAT ORIGINATES IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY
ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN OUTFLOW DOMINATED CONVECTIVE LINE THAT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL NC VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE WEAK...LIKELY RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS
INDICATIVE OF POOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. STILL...WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY AND ATTEMPTED
TO INCLUDE THE ABOVE STORM MORPHOLOGY IN THE POP GRIDS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 89 IN THE TRIAD TO 95 IN THE SANDHILLS. LOWS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 68 AND 73. -BLAES
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM TUESDAY...

ON THURSDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SUPPRESS THE WESTERLIES WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...LEAVING US ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. HIGHS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW AND MID 90S
WITH STRONG INSOLATION. AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
MIDWEST WILL TIP THE FLOW NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING
FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW FOR ADVECTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES (ALBEIT STILL A CLIMATOLOGICAL 30 PERCENT) IN THE
NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. NO CHANGE OF
AIRMASS...BUT INCREASED DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COULD NIP A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE
AFTERNOON HIGH...WILL MAINTAIN A FORECAST OF AROUND 90 NORTH TO 96
SOUTH.

RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A POP GRADIENT
FAVORING THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT COULD BE DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE CHANCE FOR NON-DIURNAL CONVECTION
WILL BE INCREASING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPULSES ORIGINATING
FROM DIURNALLY ENHANCED MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A MORE
FAVORABLE TIME SLOT FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTING UPSTREAM MESOSCALE
FEATURES...THUS WILL MAINTAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS FOR THE
MEANTIME. SIMILARLY...HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE PERSISTENCE BARRING
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND EARLY DAY CONVECTION...IN THE LOW TO MID
90S...WITH SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED WITH BASES
AROUND 4500 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN
THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE KRWI AND KFAY TERMINALS. WILL
EXCLUDE MENTION OF A THUNDERSTORM BUT KEEP A TEMPO FOR A SHOWER.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE LESS AT KRDU AND MINIMAL IN THE TRIAD
AT KINT AND KGSO. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THE CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH
JUST AFTER SUNSET. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A
LIMITED THREAT OF SOME MVFR STRATUS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KFAY AND
KRWI. WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND A LOT OF NWP
SPREAD...HAVE OPTED TO EXCLUDE STRATUS FROM THE TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. LOW LEVEL FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE
LOW LEVEL INVERSION INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AT
25-30KTS AT 1500 FT JUST OUTSIDE OF LLWS CRITERIA SO WILL OMIT THAT
FROM THE TAF AS WELL. THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT CUMULUS AT AROUND 4-5KT AND
SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL BKN DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD SETTING UP A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUTSIDE OF MAINLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK.
-BLAES

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES/CAMPBELL
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BLAES




000
FXUS62 KRAH 071922
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS. LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES THE SLOW
MOVING SHEAR AXIS ALOFT IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND IT WILL LIKELY BE LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT UNTIL THIS
FEATURE EXITS CENTRAL NC. DEW POINTS RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG
IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
PRETTY ANEMIC...RANGING AROUND 5.5 DEG C/KM. STILL IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC HAS DRIED CONSIDERABLY IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.3 INCHES IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AND 1.6 INCHES IN THE EAST.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS WITH THE DEEPEST VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT LOCATED ALONG
THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE SEA BREEZE...ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OWING TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS WILL INCREASE A BIT
DURING NEXT FEW HOURS BUT GIVEN THE LIMITED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
MODEST INSTABILITY...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. THE CONVECTION
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE OVERALL REGION OF SHOWERS
GENERALLY TRANSITIONING EAST. WILL KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE AND GENERALLY LOCATED ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. ROUTE 1.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD WANE WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 68 NEAR THE VA BORDER TO 73 NEAR THE SC
BORDER WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND.
-BLAES/CAMPBELL
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE PERIOD WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
WEDNESDAY SHEARS NORTHEAST ATOP THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SETTLES NORTH OF OUR AREA IN AN EAST TO WEST
AXIS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE UPPER FLOW
PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL POSITION IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE MUCH
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS PROGGED
TO RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE IN PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY ENHANCING AREA OF CONVECTION TO OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH.

THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO REBOUND AND RANGE BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9
INCHES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE AN AIRMASS MORE
THERMODYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION BUT STILL LACKING A WELL
DEFINED TRIGGER. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND NEAR THE SEABREEZE IN THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. MOST CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE
SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION THAT ORIGINATES IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY
ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN OUTFLOW DOMINATED CONVECTIVE LINE THAT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL NC VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE WEAK...LIKELY RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS
INDICATIVE OF POOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. STILL...WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY AND ATTEMPTED
TO INCLUDE THE ABOVE STORM MORPHOLOGY IN THE POP GRIDS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 89 IN THE TRIAD TO 95 IN THE SANDHILLS. LOWS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 68 AND 73. -BLAES
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM TUESDAY...

ON THURSDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SUPPRESS THE WESTERLIES WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...LEAVING US ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. HIGHS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW AND MID 90S
WITH STRONG INSOLATION. AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
MIDWEST WILL TIP THE FLOW NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING
FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW FOR ADVECTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES (ALBEIT STILL A CLIMATOLOGICAL 30 PERCENT) IN THE
NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. NO CHANGE OF
AIRMASS...BUT INCREASED DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COULD NIP A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE
AFTERNOON HIGH...WILL MAINTAIN A FORECAST OF AROUND 90 NORTH TO 96
SOUTH.

RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A POP GRADIENT
FAVORING THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT COULD BE DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE CHANCE FOR NON-DIURNAL CONVECTION
WILL BE INCREASING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPULSES ORIGINATING
FROM DIURNALLY ENHANCED MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A MORE
FAVORABLE TIME SLOT FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTING UPSTREAM MESOSCALE
FEATURES...THUS WILL MAINTAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS FOR THE
MEANTIME. SIMILARLY...HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE PERSISTENCE BARRING
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND EARLY DAY CONVECTION...IN THE LOW TO MID
90S...WITH SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED WITH BASES
AROUND 4500 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN
THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE KRWI AND KFAY TERMINALS. WILL
EXCLUDE MENTION OF A THUNDERSTORM BUT KEEP A TEMPO FOR A SHOWER.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE LESS AT KRDU AND MINIMAL IN THE TRIAD
AT KINT AND KGSO. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THE CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH
JUST AFTER SUNSET. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A
LIMITED THREAT OF SOME MVFR STRATUS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KFAY AND
KRWI. WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND A LOT OF NWP
SPREAD...HAVE OPTED TO EXCLUDE STRATUS FROM THE TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. LOW LEVEL FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE
LOW LEVEL INVERSION INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AT
25-30KTS AT 1500 FT JUST OUTSIDE OF LLWS CRITERIA SO WILL OMIT THAT
FROM THE TAF AS WELL. THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT CUMULUS AT AROUND 4-5KT AND
SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL BKN DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD SETTING UP A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUTSIDE OF MAINLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK.
-BLAES

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES/CAMPBELL
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BLAES





000
FXUS62 KRAH 071840
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1110 AM TUESDAY...

MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC HAS DRIED
CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.1 INCHES IN
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND 1.6 INCHES IN THE EAST. STRATUS THIS
MORNING WAS RATHER LIMITED AND MOST OF THE AREA WAS RECEIVING FULL
SUN AS OF MID MORNING.

FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND EASTWARD OF
THE SHIFTING LOWER AND MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THE INSTABILITY GREATEST ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY
ANEMIC...RANGING AROUND 5.5 DEG C/KM. GIVEN THIS...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AS NOTED BY LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS. WILL KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE AND
LOCATED IN THE EAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
MONDAY WITH THICKNESS VALUES VALUES AT GSO 18M WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. HIGHS IN THE 89 TO 94 RANGE LOOK ON TARGET. ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH JUST AFTER SUNSET. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. -BLAES
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE PERIOD WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
WEDNESDAY SHEARS NORTHEAST ATOP THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SETTLES NORTH OF OUR AREA IN AN EAST TO WEST
AXIS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE UPPER FLOW
PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL POSITION IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE MUCH
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS PROGGED
TO RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE IN PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY ENHANCING AREA OF CONVECTION TO OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH.

THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO REBOUND AND RANGE BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9
INCHES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE AN AIRMASS MORE
THERMODYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION BUT STILL LACKING A WELL
DEFINED TRIGGER. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND NEAR THE SEABREEZE IN THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. MOST CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE
SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION THAT ORIGINATES IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY
ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN OUTFLOW DOMINATED CONVECTIVE LINE THAT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL NC VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE WEAK...LIKELY RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS
INDICATIVE OF POOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. STILL...WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY AND ATTEMPTED
TO INCLUDE THE ABOVE STORM MORPHOLOGY IN THE POP GRIDS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 89 IN THE TRIAD TO 95 IN THE SANDHILLS. LOWS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 68 AND 73. -BLAES
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM TUESDAY...

ON THURSDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SUPPRESS THE WESTERLIES WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...LEAVING US ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. HIGHS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW AND MID 90S
WITH STRONG INSOLATION. AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
MIDWEST WILL TIP THE FLOW NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING
FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW FOR ADVECTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES (ALBEIT STILL A CLIMATOLOGICAL 30 PERCENT) IN THE
NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. NO CHANGE OF
AIRMASS...BUT INCREASED DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COULD NIP A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE
AFTERNOON HIGH...WILL MAINTAIN A FORECAST OF AROUND 90 NORTH TO 96
SOUTH.

RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A POP GRADIENT
FAVORING THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT COULD BE DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE CHANCE FOR NON-DIURNAL CONVECTION
WILL BE INCREASING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPULSES ORIGINATING
FROM DIURNALLY ENHANCED MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A MORE
FAVORABLE TIME SLOT FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTING UPSTREAM MESOSCALE
FEATURES...THUS WILL MAINTAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS FOR THE
MEANTIME. SIMILARLY...HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE PERSISTENCE BARRING
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND EARLY DAY CONVECTION...IN THE LOW TO MID
90S...WITH SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM TUESDAY...

OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF LIMITED VSBY....VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THIS MORNING.   SCATTERED CU WITH BASES IN THE 4-5K FT FT
RANGE WILL DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WITH DRIER AIR OVER
WESTERN NC...ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF KFAY
AND/OR KRWI AFTER 18Z.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.  SOME AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...ALONG WITH EARLY MORNING VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...22





000
FXUS62 KRAH 071840
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1110 AM TUESDAY...

MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC HAS DRIED
CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.1 INCHES IN
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND 1.6 INCHES IN THE EAST. STRATUS THIS
MORNING WAS RATHER LIMITED AND MOST OF THE AREA WAS RECEIVING FULL
SUN AS OF MID MORNING.

FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND EASTWARD OF
THE SHIFTING LOWER AND MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THE INSTABILITY GREATEST ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY
ANEMIC...RANGING AROUND 5.5 DEG C/KM. GIVEN THIS...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AS NOTED BY LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS. WILL KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE AND
LOCATED IN THE EAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
MONDAY WITH THICKNESS VALUES VALUES AT GSO 18M WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. HIGHS IN THE 89 TO 94 RANGE LOOK ON TARGET. ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH JUST AFTER SUNSET. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. -BLAES
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE PERIOD WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
WEDNESDAY SHEARS NORTHEAST ATOP THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SETTLES NORTH OF OUR AREA IN AN EAST TO WEST
AXIS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE UPPER FLOW
PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL POSITION IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE MUCH
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS PROGGED
TO RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE IN PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY ENHANCING AREA OF CONVECTION TO OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH.

THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO REBOUND AND RANGE BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9
INCHES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE AN AIRMASS MORE
THERMODYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION BUT STILL LACKING A WELL
DEFINED TRIGGER. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND NEAR THE SEABREEZE IN THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. MOST CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE
SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION THAT ORIGINATES IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY
ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN OUTFLOW DOMINATED CONVECTIVE LINE THAT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL NC VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE WEAK...LIKELY RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS
INDICATIVE OF POOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. STILL...WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY AND ATTEMPTED
TO INCLUDE THE ABOVE STORM MORPHOLOGY IN THE POP GRIDS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 89 IN THE TRIAD TO 95 IN THE SANDHILLS. LOWS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 68 AND 73. -BLAES
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM TUESDAY...

ON THURSDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SUPPRESS THE WESTERLIES WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...LEAVING US ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. HIGHS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW AND MID 90S
WITH STRONG INSOLATION. AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
MIDWEST WILL TIP THE FLOW NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING
FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW FOR ADVECTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES (ALBEIT STILL A CLIMATOLOGICAL 30 PERCENT) IN THE
NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. NO CHANGE OF
AIRMASS...BUT INCREASED DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COULD NIP A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE
AFTERNOON HIGH...WILL MAINTAIN A FORECAST OF AROUND 90 NORTH TO 96
SOUTH.

RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A POP GRADIENT
FAVORING THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT COULD BE DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE CHANCE FOR NON-DIURNAL CONVECTION
WILL BE INCREASING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPULSES ORIGINATING
FROM DIURNALLY ENHANCED MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A MORE
FAVORABLE TIME SLOT FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTING UPSTREAM MESOSCALE
FEATURES...THUS WILL MAINTAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS FOR THE
MEANTIME. SIMILARLY...HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE PERSISTENCE BARRING
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND EARLY DAY CONVECTION...IN THE LOW TO MID
90S...WITH SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM TUESDAY...

OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF LIMITED VSBY....VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THIS MORNING.   SCATTERED CU WITH BASES IN THE 4-5K FT FT
RANGE WILL DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WITH DRIER AIR OVER
WESTERN NC...ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF KFAY
AND/OR KRWI AFTER 18Z.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.  SOME AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...ALONG WITH EARLY MORNING VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KRAH 071840
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1110 AM TUESDAY...

MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC HAS DRIED
CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.1 INCHES IN
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND 1.6 INCHES IN THE EAST. STRATUS THIS
MORNING WAS RATHER LIMITED AND MOST OF THE AREA WAS RECEIVING FULL
SUN AS OF MID MORNING.

FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND EASTWARD OF
THE SHIFTING LOWER AND MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THE INSTABILITY GREATEST ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY
ANEMIC...RANGING AROUND 5.5 DEG C/KM. GIVEN THIS...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AS NOTED BY LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS. WILL KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE AND
LOCATED IN THE EAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
MONDAY WITH THICKNESS VALUES VALUES AT GSO 18M WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. HIGHS IN THE 89 TO 94 RANGE LOOK ON TARGET. ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH JUST AFTER SUNSET. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. -BLAES
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE PERIOD WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
WEDNESDAY SHEARS NORTHEAST ATOP THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SETTLES NORTH OF OUR AREA IN AN EAST TO WEST
AXIS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE UPPER FLOW
PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL POSITION IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE MUCH
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS PROGGED
TO RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE IN PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY ENHANCING AREA OF CONVECTION TO OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH.

THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO REBOUND AND RANGE BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9
INCHES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE AN AIRMASS MORE
THERMODYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION BUT STILL LACKING A WELL
DEFINED TRIGGER. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND NEAR THE SEABREEZE IN THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. MOST CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE
SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION THAT ORIGINATES IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY
ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN OUTFLOW DOMINATED CONVECTIVE LINE THAT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL NC VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE WEAK...LIKELY RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS
INDICATIVE OF POOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. STILL...WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY AND ATTEMPTED
TO INCLUDE THE ABOVE STORM MORPHOLOGY IN THE POP GRIDS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 89 IN THE TRIAD TO 95 IN THE SANDHILLS. LOWS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 68 AND 73. -BLAES
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM TUESDAY...

ON THURSDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SUPPRESS THE WESTERLIES WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...LEAVING US ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. HIGHS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW AND MID 90S
WITH STRONG INSOLATION. AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
MIDWEST WILL TIP THE FLOW NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING
FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW FOR ADVECTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES (ALBEIT STILL A CLIMATOLOGICAL 30 PERCENT) IN THE
NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. NO CHANGE OF
AIRMASS...BUT INCREASED DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COULD NIP A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE
AFTERNOON HIGH...WILL MAINTAIN A FORECAST OF AROUND 90 NORTH TO 96
SOUTH.

RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A POP GRADIENT
FAVORING THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT COULD BE DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE CHANCE FOR NON-DIURNAL CONVECTION
WILL BE INCREASING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPULSES ORIGINATING
FROM DIURNALLY ENHANCED MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A MORE
FAVORABLE TIME SLOT FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTING UPSTREAM MESOSCALE
FEATURES...THUS WILL MAINTAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS FOR THE
MEANTIME. SIMILARLY...HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE PERSISTENCE BARRING
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND EARLY DAY CONVECTION...IN THE LOW TO MID
90S...WITH SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM TUESDAY...

OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF LIMITED VSBY....VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THIS MORNING.   SCATTERED CU WITH BASES IN THE 4-5K FT FT
RANGE WILL DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WITH DRIER AIR OVER
WESTERN NC...ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF KFAY
AND/OR KRWI AFTER 18Z.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.  SOME AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...ALONG WITH EARLY MORNING VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KRAH 071840
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1110 AM TUESDAY...

MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC HAS DRIED
CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.1 INCHES IN
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND 1.6 INCHES IN THE EAST. STRATUS THIS
MORNING WAS RATHER LIMITED AND MOST OF THE AREA WAS RECEIVING FULL
SUN AS OF MID MORNING.

FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND EASTWARD OF
THE SHIFTING LOWER AND MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THE INSTABILITY GREATEST ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY
ANEMIC...RANGING AROUND 5.5 DEG C/KM. GIVEN THIS...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AS NOTED BY LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS. WILL KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE AND
LOCATED IN THE EAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
MONDAY WITH THICKNESS VALUES VALUES AT GSO 18M WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. HIGHS IN THE 89 TO 94 RANGE LOOK ON TARGET. ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH JUST AFTER SUNSET. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. -BLAES
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE PERIOD WITH RISING
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE GREAT LAKES EARLY
WEDNESDAY SHEARS NORTHEAST ATOP THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SETTLES NORTH OF OUR AREA IN AN EAST TO WEST
AXIS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE UPPER FLOW
PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL POSITION IS UNLIKELY TO MAKE MUCH
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IS PROGGED
TO RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE IN PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY ENHANCING AREA OF CONVECTION TO OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH.

THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO REBOUND AND RANGE BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9
INCHES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE AN AIRMASS MORE
THERMODYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION BUT STILL LACKING A WELL
DEFINED TRIGGER. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND NEAR THE SEABREEZE IN THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. MOST CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE
SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION THAT ORIGINATES IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY
ORGANIZE INTO A BROKEN OUTFLOW DOMINATED CONVECTIVE LINE THAT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL NC VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE WEAK...LIKELY RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS
INDICATIVE OF POOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. STILL...WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY AND ATTEMPTED
TO INCLUDE THE ABOVE STORM MORPHOLOGY IN THE POP GRIDS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 89 IN THE TRIAD TO 95 IN THE SANDHILLS. LOWS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 68 AND 73. -BLAES
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM TUESDAY...

ON THURSDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SUPPRESS THE WESTERLIES WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...LEAVING US ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. HIGHS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW AND MID 90S
WITH STRONG INSOLATION. AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
MIDWEST WILL TIP THE FLOW NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING
FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW FOR ADVECTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES (ALBEIT STILL A CLIMATOLOGICAL 30 PERCENT) IN THE
NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. NO CHANGE OF
AIRMASS...BUT INCREASED DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COULD NIP A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE
AFTERNOON HIGH...WILL MAINTAIN A FORECAST OF AROUND 90 NORTH TO 96
SOUTH.

RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A POP GRADIENT
FAVORING THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT COULD BE DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE CHANCE FOR NON-DIURNAL CONVECTION
WILL BE INCREASING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPULSES ORIGINATING
FROM DIURNALLY ENHANCED MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A MORE
FAVORABLE TIME SLOT FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTING UPSTREAM MESOSCALE
FEATURES...THUS WILL MAINTAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS FOR THE
MEANTIME. SIMILARLY...HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE PERSISTENCE BARRING
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND EARLY DAY CONVECTION...IN THE LOW TO MID
90S...WITH SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM TUESDAY...

OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF LIMITED VSBY....VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THIS MORNING.   SCATTERED CU WITH BASES IN THE 4-5K FT FT
RANGE WILL DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WITH DRIER AIR OVER
WESTERN NC...ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF KFAY
AND/OR KRWI AFTER 18Z.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.  SOME AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...ALONG WITH EARLY MORNING VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...22





000
FXUS62 KRAH 071754
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
155 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1110 AM TUESDAY...

MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC HAS DRIED
CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.1 INCHES IN
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND 1.6 INCHES IN THE EAST. STRATUS THIS
MORNING WAS RATHER LIMITED AND MOST OF THE AREA WAS RECEIVING FULL
SUN AS OF MID MORNING.

FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND EASTWARD OF
THE SHIFTING LOWER AND MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THE INSTABILITY GREATEST ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY
ANEMIC...RANGING AROUND 5.5 DEG C/KM. GIVEN THIS...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AS NOTED BY LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS. WILL KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE AND
LOCATED IN THE EAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
MONDAY WITH THICKNESS VALUES VALUES AT GSO 18M WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. HIGHS IN THE 89 TO 94 RANGE LOOK ON TARGET. ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH JUST AFTER SUNSET. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. -BLAES
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BECOMING
LAID OUT WEST TO EAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
THE LEE TROUGH WILL AGAIN SET UP OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY AGAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.  ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
HIGHER TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS.   THE BIG UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CONVECTION IS WHETHER OR NOT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...ONE OF A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES TO TRACK NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR NORTH...WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG BLUE RIDGE...WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY GROW
UPSCALE INTO A LINE OF STORMS THAT MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING AND STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (WHICH COULD PROMOTE THE MERGING OF STRONG
OUTFLOWS).  RIGHT NOW THIS SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO OUR NORTH...BUT GIVEN
THE POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE NORTH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S...MAYBE A DEGREE WARMER BASED ON THICKNESSES.  LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM TUESDAY...

ON THURSDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SUPPRESS THE WESTERLIES WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...LEAVING US ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. HIGHS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW AND MID 90S
WITH STRONG INSOLATION. AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
MIDWEST WILL TIP THE FLOW NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING
FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW FOR ADVECTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES (ALBEIT STILL A CLIMATOLOGICAL 30 PERCENT) IN THE
NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. NO CHANGE OF
AIRMASS...BUT INCREASED DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COULD NIP A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE
AFTERNOON HIGH...WILL MAINTAIN A FORECAST OF AROUND 90 NORTH TO 96
SOUTH.

RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A POP GRADIENT
FAVORING THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT COULD BE DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE CHANCE FOR NON-DIURNAL CONVECTION
WILL BE INCREASING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPULSES ORIGINATING
FROM DIURNALLY ENHANCED MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A MORE
FAVORABLE TIME SLOT FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTING UPSTREAM MESOSCALE
FEATURES...THUS WILL MAINTAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS FOR THE
MEANTIME. SIMILARLY...HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE PERSISTENCE BARRING
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND EARLY DAY CONVECTION...IN THE LOW TO MID
90S...WITH SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM TUESDAY...

OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF LIMITED VSBY....VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THIS MORNING.   SCATTERED CU WITH BASES IN THE 4-5K FT FT
RANGE WILL DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WITH DRIER AIR OVER
WESTERN NC...ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF KFAY
AND/OR KRWI AFTER 18Z.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.  SOME AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...ALONG WITH EARLY MORNING VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KRAH 071754
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
155 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1110 AM TUESDAY...

MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC HAS DRIED
CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.1 INCHES IN
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND 1.6 INCHES IN THE EAST. STRATUS THIS
MORNING WAS RATHER LIMITED AND MOST OF THE AREA WAS RECEIVING FULL
SUN AS OF MID MORNING.

FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND EASTWARD OF
THE SHIFTING LOWER AND MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THE INSTABILITY GREATEST ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY
ANEMIC...RANGING AROUND 5.5 DEG C/KM. GIVEN THIS...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AS NOTED BY LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS. WILL KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE AND
LOCATED IN THE EAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
MONDAY WITH THICKNESS VALUES VALUES AT GSO 18M WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. HIGHS IN THE 89 TO 94 RANGE LOOK ON TARGET. ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH JUST AFTER SUNSET. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. -BLAES
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BECOMING
LAID OUT WEST TO EAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
THE LEE TROUGH WILL AGAIN SET UP OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY AGAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.  ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
HIGHER TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS.   THE BIG UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CONVECTION IS WHETHER OR NOT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...ONE OF A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES TO TRACK NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR NORTH...WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG BLUE RIDGE...WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY GROW
UPSCALE INTO A LINE OF STORMS THAT MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING AND STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (WHICH COULD PROMOTE THE MERGING OF STRONG
OUTFLOWS).  RIGHT NOW THIS SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO OUR NORTH...BUT GIVEN
THE POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE NORTH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S...MAYBE A DEGREE WARMER BASED ON THICKNESSES.  LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM TUESDAY...

ON THURSDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SUPPRESS THE WESTERLIES WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...LEAVING US ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. HIGHS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR LOW AND MID 90S
WITH STRONG INSOLATION. AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE
MIDWEST WILL TIP THE FLOW NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING
FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW FOR ADVECTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES (ALBEIT STILL A CLIMATOLOGICAL 30 PERCENT) IN THE
NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. NO CHANGE OF
AIRMASS...BUT INCREASED DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COULD NIP A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF THE
AFTERNOON HIGH...WILL MAINTAIN A FORECAST OF AROUND 90 NORTH TO 96
SOUTH.

RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A POP GRADIENT
FAVORING THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT COULD BE DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE CHANCE FOR NON-DIURNAL CONVECTION
WILL BE INCREASING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPULSES ORIGINATING
FROM DIURNALLY ENHANCED MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A MORE
FAVORABLE TIME SLOT FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT THIS POINT
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTING UPSTREAM MESOSCALE
FEATURES...THUS WILL MAINTAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS FOR THE
MEANTIME. SIMILARLY...HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE PERSISTENCE BARRING
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND EARLY DAY CONVECTION...IN THE LOW TO MID
90S...WITH SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM TUESDAY...

OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF LIMITED VSBY....VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THIS MORNING.   SCATTERED CU WITH BASES IN THE 4-5K FT FT
RANGE WILL DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WITH DRIER AIR OVER
WESTERN NC...ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF KFAY
AND/OR KRWI AFTER 18Z.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.  SOME AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...ALONG WITH EARLY MORNING VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...22





000
FXUS62 KRAH 071740
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
135 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND THEN STALL
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1110 AM TUESDAY...

MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC HAS DRIED
CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.1 INCHES IN
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND 1.6 INCHES IN THE EAST. STRATUS THIS
MORNING WAS RATHER LIMITED AND MOST OF THE AREA WAS RECEIVING FULL
SUN AS OF MID MORNING.

FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND EASTWARD OF
THE SHIFTING LOWER AND MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THE INSTABILITY GREATEST ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY
ANEMIC...RANGING AROUND 5.5 DEG C/KM. GIVEN THIS...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AS NOTED BY LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS. WILL KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE AND
LOCATED IN THE EAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
MONDAY WITH THICKNESS VALUES VALUES AT GSO 18M WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. HIGHS IN THE 89 TO 94 RANGE LOOK ON TARGET. ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH JUST AFTER SUNSET. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. -BLAES
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION 2EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BECOMING
LAID OUT WEST TO EAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
THE LEE TROUGH WILL AGAIN SET UP OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY AGAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.  ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
HIGHER TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS.   THE BIG UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CONVECTION IS WHETHER OR NOT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...ONE OF A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES TO TRACK NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR NORTH...WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG BLUE RIDGE...WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY GROW
UPSCALE INTO A LINE OF STORMS THAT MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING AND STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (WHICH COULD PROMOTE THE MERGING OF STRONG
OUTFLOWS).  RIGHT NOW THIS SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO OUR NORTH...BUT
GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE
NORTH INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S...MAYBE A DEGREE WARMER BASED ON THICKNESSES.  LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THU: THE WEAK PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC...
WHILE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO VA. EXPANSIVE
MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE LOWER MISS VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WHILE SUPPRESSING THE
WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH. ABUNDANT HEATING IS ASSURED.... WHICH WILL
PUSH THICKNESSES UP TO 5-10 M ABOVE NORMAL... INDICATING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER-MID 90S. FALLING DEWPOINTS WITH MIXING BY AFTERNOON SHOULD
KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW CRITICAL VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
(ALTHOUGH THEY MAY EXCEED 100F BRIEFLY IN THE SE CWA). GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND NEAR-NORMAL PW... ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW AND CONFINED TO THE EXTREME NORTH...
POTENTIALLY ALONG OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
(PERHAPS ENHANCED BY A LOW CROSSING MD/DE)... AND ALONG AN INLAND-
MOVING SEA BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY.

FRI: THE SYNOPTIC FRONT TO THE NORTH APPEARS LIKELY TO DIP NEAR OR
JUST INTO NE NC... WITH A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW POTENTIALLY DROPPING
FURTHER SOUTH WELL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC... WHILE ALOFT... THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY. WITH THE SUBSEQUENT TILT/DIP IN THE WESTERLIES DOWN THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST... MODELS DO TREND TOWARD A BIT MORE WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD BRUSHING NE NC FRI NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOW (MUCAPE UNDER 750
J/KG ON THE GFS)... AND PW WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVER THE
ERN CWA. WILL PLACE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/NE CWA AND IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN... ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THICKNESSES WILL
AGAIN BE 5-10 M ABOVE NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS 70-74 WITH LINGERING ISOLATED POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

SAT-MON: THE COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
AND UP THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND RESULTING STRENGTHENING NW
FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL PLACE NC IN A MORE ACTIVE AND VOLATILE
WEATHER PATTERN... HIGHLIGHTED BY POCKETS OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CROSSING OUR REGION IN NW STEERING FLOW... TRACKING ALONG THE
OLD DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...
ORIGINATING IN A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE MIDWEST AND
THE OH VALLEY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER VA/NC. WHILE WE CAN`T
ACCURATELY TRACK SPECIFIC FEATURES AT THIS RANGE... THE IMPROVING
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH GREATER DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
SUPPORT BOOSTING POPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS
PERIOD... AND NOT NECESSARILY PEAKING IN THE TYPICAL LATE-DAY TIME
FRAME EITHER... AS HIGH LAPSE RATES WITHIN AN UPSTREAM EML MAY
SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. STILL EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES TO EQUATE TO WARM TEMPS TOPPING OUT DAILY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S... AND THE THREAT OF 100+F HEAT INDEX VALUES
PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED WITH BASES
AROUND 4500 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN
THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE KRWI AND KFAY TERMINALS. WILL
EXCLUDE MENTION OF A THUNDERSTORM BUT KEEP A TEMPO FOR A SHOWER.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE LESS AT KRDU AND MINIMAL IN THE TRIAD AT
KINT AND KGSO. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THE CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH
JUST AFTER SUNSET. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A
LIMITED THREAT OF SOME MVFR STRATUS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KFAY AND
KRWI. WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND A LOT OF NWP
SPREAD...HAVE OPTED TO EXCLUDE STRATUS FROM THE TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. LOW LEVEL FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE
LOW LEVEL INVERSION INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AT
25-30KTS AT 1500 FT JUST OUTSIDE OF LLWS CRITERIA SO WILL OMIT THAT
FROM THE TAF AS WELL. THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT CUMULUS AT AROUND 4-5KT AND
SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL BKN DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD SETTING UP A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUTSIDE OF MAINLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK.
-BLAES
&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BLAES





000
FXUS62 KRAH 071740
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
135 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND THEN STALL
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1110 AM TUESDAY...

MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC HAS DRIED
CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.1 INCHES IN
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND 1.6 INCHES IN THE EAST. STRATUS THIS
MORNING WAS RATHER LIMITED AND MOST OF THE AREA WAS RECEIVING FULL
SUN AS OF MID MORNING.

FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND EASTWARD OF
THE SHIFTING LOWER AND MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THE INSTABILITY GREATEST ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY
ANEMIC...RANGING AROUND 5.5 DEG C/KM. GIVEN THIS...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AS NOTED BY LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS. WILL KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE AND
LOCATED IN THE EAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
MONDAY WITH THICKNESS VALUES VALUES AT GSO 18M WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. HIGHS IN THE 89 TO 94 RANGE LOOK ON TARGET. ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH JUST AFTER SUNSET. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. -BLAES
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION 2EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BECOMING
LAID OUT WEST TO EAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
THE LEE TROUGH WILL AGAIN SET UP OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY AGAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.  ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
HIGHER TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS.   THE BIG UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CONVECTION IS WHETHER OR NOT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...ONE OF A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES TO TRACK NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR NORTH...WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG BLUE RIDGE...WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY GROW
UPSCALE INTO A LINE OF STORMS THAT MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING AND STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (WHICH COULD PROMOTE THE MERGING OF STRONG
OUTFLOWS).  RIGHT NOW THIS SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO OUR NORTH...BUT
GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE
NORTH INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S...MAYBE A DEGREE WARMER BASED ON THICKNESSES.  LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THU: THE WEAK PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC...
WHILE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO VA. EXPANSIVE
MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE LOWER MISS VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WHILE SUPPRESSING THE
WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH. ABUNDANT HEATING IS ASSURED.... WHICH WILL
PUSH THICKNESSES UP TO 5-10 M ABOVE NORMAL... INDICATING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER-MID 90S. FALLING DEWPOINTS WITH MIXING BY AFTERNOON SHOULD
KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW CRITICAL VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
(ALTHOUGH THEY MAY EXCEED 100F BRIEFLY IN THE SE CWA). GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND NEAR-NORMAL PW... ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW AND CONFINED TO THE EXTREME NORTH...
POTENTIALLY ALONG OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
(PERHAPS ENHANCED BY A LOW CROSSING MD/DE)... AND ALONG AN INLAND-
MOVING SEA BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY.

FRI: THE SYNOPTIC FRONT TO THE NORTH APPEARS LIKELY TO DIP NEAR OR
JUST INTO NE NC... WITH A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW POTENTIALLY DROPPING
FURTHER SOUTH WELL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC... WHILE ALOFT... THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY. WITH THE SUBSEQUENT TILT/DIP IN THE WESTERLIES DOWN THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST... MODELS DO TREND TOWARD A BIT MORE WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD BRUSHING NE NC FRI NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOW (MUCAPE UNDER 750
J/KG ON THE GFS)... AND PW WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVER THE
ERN CWA. WILL PLACE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/NE CWA AND IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN... ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THICKNESSES WILL
AGAIN BE 5-10 M ABOVE NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS 70-74 WITH LINGERING ISOLATED POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

SAT-MON: THE COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
AND UP THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND RESULTING STRENGTHENING NW
FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL PLACE NC IN A MORE ACTIVE AND VOLATILE
WEATHER PATTERN... HIGHLIGHTED BY POCKETS OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CROSSING OUR REGION IN NW STEERING FLOW... TRACKING ALONG THE
OLD DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...
ORIGINATING IN A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE MIDWEST AND
THE OH VALLEY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER VA/NC. WHILE WE CAN`T
ACCURATELY TRACK SPECIFIC FEATURES AT THIS RANGE... THE IMPROVING
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH GREATER DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
SUPPORT BOOSTING POPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS
PERIOD... AND NOT NECESSARILY PEAKING IN THE TYPICAL LATE-DAY TIME
FRAME EITHER... AS HIGH LAPSE RATES WITHIN AN UPSTREAM EML MAY
SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. STILL EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES TO EQUATE TO WARM TEMPS TOPPING OUT DAILY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S... AND THE THREAT OF 100+F HEAT INDEX VALUES
PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED WITH BASES
AROUND 4500 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN
THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE KRWI AND KFAY TERMINALS. WILL
EXCLUDE MENTION OF A THUNDERSTORM BUT KEEP A TEMPO FOR A SHOWER.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE LESS AT KRDU AND MINIMAL IN THE TRIAD AT
KINT AND KGSO. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THE CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH
JUST AFTER SUNSET. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A
LIMITED THREAT OF SOME MVFR STRATUS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KFAY AND
KRWI. WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND A LOT OF NWP
SPREAD...HAVE OPTED TO EXCLUDE STRATUS FROM THE TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. LOW LEVEL FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE
LOW LEVEL INVERSION INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AT
25-30KTS AT 1500 FT JUST OUTSIDE OF LLWS CRITERIA SO WILL OMIT THAT
FROM THE TAF AS WELL. THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT CUMULUS AT AROUND 4-5KT AND
SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL BKN DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD SETTING UP A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUTSIDE OF MAINLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK.
-BLAES
&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BLAES





000
FXUS62 KRAH 071740
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
135 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND THEN STALL
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1110 AM TUESDAY...

MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC HAS DRIED
CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.1 INCHES IN
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND 1.6 INCHES IN THE EAST. STRATUS THIS
MORNING WAS RATHER LIMITED AND MOST OF THE AREA WAS RECEIVING FULL
SUN AS OF MID MORNING.

FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND EASTWARD OF
THE SHIFTING LOWER AND MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THE INSTABILITY GREATEST ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY
ANEMIC...RANGING AROUND 5.5 DEG C/KM. GIVEN THIS...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AS NOTED BY LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS. WILL KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE AND
LOCATED IN THE EAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
MONDAY WITH THICKNESS VALUES VALUES AT GSO 18M WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. HIGHS IN THE 89 TO 94 RANGE LOOK ON TARGET. ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH JUST AFTER SUNSET. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. -BLAES
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION 2EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BECOMING
LAID OUT WEST TO EAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
THE LEE TROUGH WILL AGAIN SET UP OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY AGAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.  ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
HIGHER TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS.   THE BIG UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CONVECTION IS WHETHER OR NOT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...ONE OF A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES TO TRACK NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR NORTH...WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG BLUE RIDGE...WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY GROW
UPSCALE INTO A LINE OF STORMS THAT MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING AND STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (WHICH COULD PROMOTE THE MERGING OF STRONG
OUTFLOWS).  RIGHT NOW THIS SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO OUR NORTH...BUT
GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE
NORTH INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S...MAYBE A DEGREE WARMER BASED ON THICKNESSES.  LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THU: THE WEAK PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC...
WHILE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO VA. EXPANSIVE
MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE LOWER MISS VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WHILE SUPPRESSING THE
WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH. ABUNDANT HEATING IS ASSURED.... WHICH WILL
PUSH THICKNESSES UP TO 5-10 M ABOVE NORMAL... INDICATING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER-MID 90S. FALLING DEWPOINTS WITH MIXING BY AFTERNOON SHOULD
KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW CRITICAL VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
(ALTHOUGH THEY MAY EXCEED 100F BRIEFLY IN THE SE CWA). GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND NEAR-NORMAL PW... ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW AND CONFINED TO THE EXTREME NORTH...
POTENTIALLY ALONG OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
(PERHAPS ENHANCED BY A LOW CROSSING MD/DE)... AND ALONG AN INLAND-
MOVING SEA BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY.

FRI: THE SYNOPTIC FRONT TO THE NORTH APPEARS LIKELY TO DIP NEAR OR
JUST INTO NE NC... WITH A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW POTENTIALLY DROPPING
FURTHER SOUTH WELL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC... WHILE ALOFT... THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY. WITH THE SUBSEQUENT TILT/DIP IN THE WESTERLIES DOWN THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST... MODELS DO TREND TOWARD A BIT MORE WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD BRUSHING NE NC FRI NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOW (MUCAPE UNDER 750
J/KG ON THE GFS)... AND PW WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVER THE
ERN CWA. WILL PLACE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/NE CWA AND IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN... ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THICKNESSES WILL
AGAIN BE 5-10 M ABOVE NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS 70-74 WITH LINGERING ISOLATED POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

SAT-MON: THE COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
AND UP THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND RESULTING STRENGTHENING NW
FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL PLACE NC IN A MORE ACTIVE AND VOLATILE
WEATHER PATTERN... HIGHLIGHTED BY POCKETS OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CROSSING OUR REGION IN NW STEERING FLOW... TRACKING ALONG THE
OLD DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...
ORIGINATING IN A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE MIDWEST AND
THE OH VALLEY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER VA/NC. WHILE WE CAN`T
ACCURATELY TRACK SPECIFIC FEATURES AT THIS RANGE... THE IMPROVING
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH GREATER DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
SUPPORT BOOSTING POPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS
PERIOD... AND NOT NECESSARILY PEAKING IN THE TYPICAL LATE-DAY TIME
FRAME EITHER... AS HIGH LAPSE RATES WITHIN AN UPSTREAM EML MAY
SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. STILL EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES TO EQUATE TO WARM TEMPS TOPPING OUT DAILY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S... AND THE THREAT OF 100+F HEAT INDEX VALUES
PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED WITH BASES
AROUND 4500 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN
THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE KRWI AND KFAY TERMINALS. WILL
EXCLUDE MENTION OF A THUNDERSTORM BUT KEEP A TEMPO FOR A SHOWER.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE LESS AT KRDU AND MINIMAL IN THE TRIAD AT
KINT AND KGSO. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THE CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH
JUST AFTER SUNSET. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A
LIMITED THREAT OF SOME MVFR STRATUS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KFAY AND
KRWI. WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND A LOT OF NWP
SPREAD...HAVE OPTED TO EXCLUDE STRATUS FROM THE TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. LOW LEVEL FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE
LOW LEVEL INVERSION INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AT
25-30KTS AT 1500 FT JUST OUTSIDE OF LLWS CRITERIA SO WILL OMIT THAT
FROM THE TAF AS WELL. THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT CUMULUS AT AROUND 4-5KT AND
SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL BKN DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD SETTING UP A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUTSIDE OF MAINLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK.
-BLAES
&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BLAES




000
FXUS62 KRAH 071740
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
135 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND THEN STALL
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1110 AM TUESDAY...

MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC HAS DRIED
CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.1 INCHES IN
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND 1.6 INCHES IN THE EAST. STRATUS THIS
MORNING WAS RATHER LIMITED AND MOST OF THE AREA WAS RECEIVING FULL
SUN AS OF MID MORNING.

FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND EASTWARD OF
THE SHIFTING LOWER AND MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THE INSTABILITY GREATEST ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY
ANEMIC...RANGING AROUND 5.5 DEG C/KM. GIVEN THIS...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AS NOTED BY LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS. WILL KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE AND
LOCATED IN THE EAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
MONDAY WITH THICKNESS VALUES VALUES AT GSO 18M WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. HIGHS IN THE 89 TO 94 RANGE LOOK ON TARGET. ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH JUST AFTER SUNSET. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. -BLAES
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION 2EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BECOMING
LAID OUT WEST TO EAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
THE LEE TROUGH WILL AGAIN SET UP OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY AGAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.  ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
HIGHER TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS.   THE BIG UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CONVECTION IS WHETHER OR NOT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...ONE OF A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES TO TRACK NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR NORTH...WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG BLUE RIDGE...WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY GROW
UPSCALE INTO A LINE OF STORMS THAT MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING AND STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (WHICH COULD PROMOTE THE MERGING OF STRONG
OUTFLOWS).  RIGHT NOW THIS SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO OUR NORTH...BUT
GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE
NORTH INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S...MAYBE A DEGREE WARMER BASED ON THICKNESSES.  LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THU: THE WEAK PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC...
WHILE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO VA. EXPANSIVE
MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE LOWER MISS VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WHILE SUPPRESSING THE
WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH. ABUNDANT HEATING IS ASSURED.... WHICH WILL
PUSH THICKNESSES UP TO 5-10 M ABOVE NORMAL... INDICATING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER-MID 90S. FALLING DEWPOINTS WITH MIXING BY AFTERNOON SHOULD
KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW CRITICAL VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
(ALTHOUGH THEY MAY EXCEED 100F BRIEFLY IN THE SE CWA). GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND NEAR-NORMAL PW... ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW AND CONFINED TO THE EXTREME NORTH...
POTENTIALLY ALONG OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
(PERHAPS ENHANCED BY A LOW CROSSING MD/DE)... AND ALONG AN INLAND-
MOVING SEA BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY.

FRI: THE SYNOPTIC FRONT TO THE NORTH APPEARS LIKELY TO DIP NEAR OR
JUST INTO NE NC... WITH A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW POTENTIALLY DROPPING
FURTHER SOUTH WELL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC... WHILE ALOFT... THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY. WITH THE SUBSEQUENT TILT/DIP IN THE WESTERLIES DOWN THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST... MODELS DO TREND TOWARD A BIT MORE WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD BRUSHING NE NC FRI NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOW (MUCAPE UNDER 750
J/KG ON THE GFS)... AND PW WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVER THE
ERN CWA. WILL PLACE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/NE CWA AND IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN... ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THICKNESSES WILL
AGAIN BE 5-10 M ABOVE NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS 70-74 WITH LINGERING ISOLATED POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

SAT-MON: THE COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
AND UP THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND RESULTING STRENGTHENING NW
FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL PLACE NC IN A MORE ACTIVE AND VOLATILE
WEATHER PATTERN... HIGHLIGHTED BY POCKETS OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CROSSING OUR REGION IN NW STEERING FLOW... TRACKING ALONG THE
OLD DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...
ORIGINATING IN A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE MIDWEST AND
THE OH VALLEY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER VA/NC. WHILE WE CAN`T
ACCURATELY TRACK SPECIFIC FEATURES AT THIS RANGE... THE IMPROVING
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH GREATER DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
SUPPORT BOOSTING POPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS
PERIOD... AND NOT NECESSARILY PEAKING IN THE TYPICAL LATE-DAY TIME
FRAME EITHER... AS HIGH LAPSE RATES WITHIN AN UPSTREAM EML MAY
SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. STILL EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES TO EQUATE TO WARM TEMPS TOPPING OUT DAILY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S... AND THE THREAT OF 100+F HEAT INDEX VALUES
PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED WITH BASES
AROUND 4500 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN
THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE KRWI AND KFAY TERMINALS. WILL
EXCLUDE MENTION OF A THUNDERSTORM BUT KEEP A TEMPO FOR A SHOWER.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE LESS AT KRDU AND MINIMAL IN THE TRIAD AT
KINT AND KGSO. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THE CUMULUS WILL DIMINISH
JUST AFTER SUNSET. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A
LIMITED THREAT OF SOME MVFR STRATUS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KFAY AND
KRWI. WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND A LOT OF NWP
SPREAD...HAVE OPTED TO EXCLUDE STRATUS FROM THE TAFS FOR NOW GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE. LOW LEVEL FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE
LOW LEVEL INVERSION INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AT
25-30KTS AT 1500 FT JUST OUTSIDE OF LLWS CRITERIA SO WILL OMIT THAT
FROM THE TAF AS WELL. THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT CUMULUS AT AROUND 4-5KT AND
SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL BKN DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD SETTING UP A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE OUTSIDE OF MAINLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK.
-BLAES
&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BLAES




000
FXUS62 KRAH 071513
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1110 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1110 AM TUESDAY...

MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC HAS DRIED
CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.1 INCHES IN
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND 1.6 INCHES IN THE EAST. STRATUS THIS
MORNING WAS RATHER LIMITED AND MOST OF THE AREA WAS RECEIVING FULL
SUN AS OF MID MORNING.

FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND EASTWARD OF
THE SHIFTING LOWER AND MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THE INSTABILITY GREATEST ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY
ANEMIC...RANGING AROUND 5.5 DEG C/KM. GIVEN THIS...CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AS NOTED BY LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS. WILL KEEP POPS CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE AND
LOCATED IN THE EAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
MONDAY WITH THICKNESS VALUES VALUES AT GSO 18M WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. HIGHS IN THE 89 TO 94 RANGE LOOK ON TARGET. ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH JUST AFTER SUNSET. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. -BLAES
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BECOMING
LAID OUT WEST TO EAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
THE LEE TROUGH WILL AGAIN SET UP OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY AGAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.  ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
HIGHER TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS.   THE BIG UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CONVECTION IS WHETHER OR NOT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...ONE OF A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES TO TRACK NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR NORTH...WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG BLUE RIDGE...WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY GROW
UPSCALE INTO A LINE OF STORMS THAT MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING AND STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (WHICH COULD PROMOTE THE MERGING OF STRONG
OUTFLOWS).  RIGHT NOW THIS SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO OUR NORTH...BUT GIVEN
THE POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE NORTH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S...MAYBE A DEGREE WARMER BASED ON THICKNESSES.  LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THU: THE WEAK PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC...
WHILE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO VA. EXPANSIVE
MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE LOWER MISS VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WHILE SUPPRESSING THE
WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH. ABUNDANT HEATING IS ASSURED.... WHICH WILL
PUSH THICKNESSES UP TO 5-10 M ABOVE NORMAL... INDICATING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER-MID 90S. FALLING DEWPOINTS WITH MIXING BY AFTERNOON SHOULD
KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW CRITICAL VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
(ALTHOUGH THEY MAY EXCEED 100F BRIEFLY IN THE SE CWA). GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND NEAR-NORMAL PW... ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW AND CONFINED TO THE EXTREME NORTH...
POTENTIALLY ALONG OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
(PERHAPS ENHANCED BY A LOW CROSSING MD/DE)... AND ALONG AN INLAND-
MOVING SEA BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY.

FRI: THE SYNOPTIC FRONT TO THE NORTH APPEARS LIKELY TO DIP NEAR OR
JUST INTO NE NC... WITH A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW POTENTIALLY DROPPING
FURTHER SOUTH WELL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC... WHILE ALOFT... THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY. WITH THE SUBSEQUENT TILT/DIP IN THE WESTERLIES DOWN THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST... MODELS DO TREND TOWARD A BIT MORE WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD BRUSHING NE NC FRI NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOW (MUCAPE UNDER 750
J/KG ON THE GFS)... AND PW WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVER THE
ERN CWA. WILL PLACE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/NE CWA AND IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN... ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THICKNESSES WILL
AGAIN BE 5-10 M ABOVE NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS 70-74 WITH LINGERING ISOLATED POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

SAT-MON: THE COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
AND UP THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND RESULTING STRENGTHENING NW
FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL PLACE NC IN A MORE ACTIVE AND VOLATILE
WEATHER PATTERN... HIGHLIGHTED BY POCKETS OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CROSSING OUR REGION IN NW STEERING FLOW... TRACKING ALONG THE
OLD DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...
ORIGINATING IN A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE MIDWEST AND
THE OH VALLEY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER VA/NC. WHILE WE CAN`T
ACCURATELY TRACK SPECIFIC FEATURES AT THIS RANGE... THE IMPROVING
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH GREATER DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
SUPPORT BOOSTING POPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS
PERIOD... AND NOT NECESSARILY PEAKING IN THE TYPICAL LATE-DAY TIME
FRAME EITHER... AS HIGH LAPSE RATES WITHIN AN UPSTREAM EML MAY
SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. STILL EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES TO EQUATE TO WARM TEMPS TOPPING OUT DAILY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S... AND THE THREAT OF 100+F HEAT INDEX VALUES
PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM TUESDAY...

OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF LIMITED VSBY....VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THIS MORNING.   SCATTERED CU WITH BASES IN THE 4-5K FT FT
RANGE WILL DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WITH DRIER AIR OVER
WESTERN NC...ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF KFAY
AND/OR KRWI AFTER 18Z.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.  SOME AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...ALONG WITH EARLY MORNING VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KRAH 071053
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
650 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LING SHEAR AXIS PARALLEL IN APPALACHIAN
SPINE THIS MORNING...WITH THE FORMER UPPER LOW OVER WESTER VIRGINIA
AS IT CONTINUES TO SHEAR AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT THE
SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS DOWN THE PIEDMONT OF VA AND NC...WITH A
STRONGER SYNOPTIC FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST MOVING ACROSS WI/IL/MO.

TODAY...EARLY MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY 925MB FLOW IS AROUND 15-20KT...BUT THE RAP/HRRR
SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SATURATION...SO ANYTHING THAT FORMS WILL
BE VERY THIN AND WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY.   THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR
AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY..BUT SOME WESTERLY MID-
LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST...WITH
PW FALLING BELOW 1.5" ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND
DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AGAIN CROSS THE
WEST. ANY APPRECIABLE MLCAPE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN..AND EVEN THERE VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 1000 J/KG OR LESS.
THUS...THE FORCING/INSTABILITY OVERLAP REALLY APPEARS TO BE NEAR I-
95 AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON...SO POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED AND FOCUSED
ACROSS THE EAST....AND THIS IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE HRR AND
VARIOUS OTHER CAMS.

HIGHS SHOULD BE AS MUCH AS 2-4 DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS THICKNESSES
WILL BE 10-15M HIGHER AND MIXING DEEP. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS WARMING AND WILL BE CONTINUED.

CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TODAY AND COME TO AN END BY
00Z...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S UNDER
CLEARING SKIES BUT AN UNCHANGED AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BECOMING
LAID OUT WEST TO EAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
THE LEE TROUGH WILL AGAIN SET UP OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY AGAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.  ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
HIGHER TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS.   THE BIG UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CONVECTION IS WHETHER OR NOT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...ONE OF A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES TO TRACK NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR NORTH...WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG BLUE RIDGE...WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY GROW
UPSCALE INTO A LINE OF STORMS THAT MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING AND STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (WHICH COULD PROMOTE THE MERGING OF STRONG
OUTFLOWS).  RIGHT NOW THIS SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO OUR NORTH...BUT GIVEN
THE POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE NORTH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S...MAYBE A DEGREE WARMER BASED ON THICKNESSES.  LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THU: THE WEAK PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC...
WHILE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO VA. EXPANSIVE
MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE LOWER MISS VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WHILE SUPPRESSING THE
WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH. ABUNDANT HEATING IS ASSURED.... WHICH WILL
PUSH THICKNESSES UP TO 5-10 M ABOVE NORMAL... INDICATING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER-MID 90S. FALLING DEWPOINTS WITH MIXING BY AFTERNOON SHOULD
KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW CRITICAL VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
(ALTHOUGH THEY MAY EXCEED 100F BRIEFLY IN THE SE CWA). GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND NEAR-NORMAL PW... ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW AND CONFINED TO THE EXTREME NORTH...
POTENTIALLY ALONG OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
(PERHAPS ENHANCED BY A LOW CROSSING MD/DE)... AND ALONG AN INLAND-
MOVING SEA BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY.

FRI: THE SYNOPTIC FRONT TO THE NORTH APPEARS LIKELY TO DIP NEAR OR
JUST INTO NE NC... WITH A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW POTENTIALLY DROPPING
FURTHER SOUTH WELL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC... WHILE ALOFT... THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY. WITH THE SUBSEQUENT TILT/DIP IN THE WESTERLIES DOWN THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST... MODELS DO TREND TOWARD A BIT MORE WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD BRUSHING NE NC FRI NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOW (MUCAPE UNDER 750
J/KG ON THE GFS)... AND PW WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVER THE
ERN CWA. WILL PLACE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/NE CWA AND IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN... ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THICKNESSES WILL
AGAIN BE 5-10 M ABOVE NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS 70-74 WITH LINGERING ISOLATED POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

SAT-MON: THE COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
AND UP THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND RESULTING STRENGTHENING NW
FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL PLACE NC IN A MORE ACTIVE AND VOLATILE
WEATHER PATTERN... HIGHLIGHTED BY POCKETS OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CROSSING OUR REGION IN NW STEERING FLOW... TRACKING ALONG THE
OLD DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...
ORIGINATING IN A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE MIDWEST AND
THE OH VALLEY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER VA/NC. WHILE WE CAN`T
ACCURATELY TRACK SPECIFIC FEATURES AT THIS RANGE... THE IMPROVING
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH GREATER DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
SUPPORT BOOSTING POPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS
PERIOD... AND NOT NECESSARILY PEAKING IN THE TYPICAL LATE-DAY TIME
FRAME EITHER... AS HIGH LAPSE RATES WITHIN AN UPSTREAM EML MAY
SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. STILL EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES TO EQUATE TO WARM TEMPS TOPPING OUT DAILY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S... AND THE THREAT OF 100+F HEAT INDEX VALUES
PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM TUESDAY...

OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF LIMITED VSBY....VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THIS MORNING.   SCATTERED CU WITH BASES IN THE 4-5K FT FT
RANGE WILL DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WITH DRIER AIR OVER
WESTERN NC...ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF KFAY
AND/OR KRWI AFTER 18Z.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.  SOME AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...ALONG WITH EARLY MORNING VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...22





000
FXUS62 KRAH 070743
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
340 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LING SHEAR AXIS PARALLEL IN APPALACHIAN
SPINE THIS MORNING...WITH THE FORMER UPPER LOW OVER WESTER VIRGINIA
AS IT CONTINUES TO SHEAR AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT THE
SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS DOWN THE PIEDMONT OF VA AND NC...WITH A
STRONGER SYNOPTIC FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST MOVING ACROSS WI/IL/MO.

TODAY...EARLY MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY 925MB FLOW IS AROUND 15-20KT...BUT THE RAP/HRRR
SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SATURATION...SO ANYTHING THAT FORMS WILL
BE VERY THIN AND WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY.   THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR
AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY..BUT SOME WESTERLY MID-
LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST...WITH
PW FALLING BELOW 1.5" ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND
DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AGAIN CROSS THE
WEST. ANY APPRECIABLE MLCAPE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN..AND EVEN THERE VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 1000 J/KG OR LESS.
THUS...THE FORCING/INSTABILITY OVERLAP REALLY APPEARS TO BE NEAR I-
95 AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON...SO POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED AND FOCUSED
ACROSS THE EAST....AND THIS IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE HRR AND
VARIOUS OTHER CAMS.

HIGHS SHOULD BE AS MUCH AS 2-4 DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS THICKNESSES
WILL BE 10-15M HIGHER AND MIXING DEEP. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS WARMING AND WILL BE CONTINUED.

CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TODAY AND COME TO AN END BY
00Z...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S UNDER
CLEARING SKIES BUT AN UNCHANGED AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BECOMING
LAID OUT WEST TO EAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
THE LEE TROUGH WILL AGAIN SET UP OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY AGAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.  ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
HIGHER TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS.   THE BIG UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CONVECTION IS WHETHER OR NOT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...ONE OF A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES TO TRACK NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR NORTH...WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG BLUE RIDGE...WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY GROW
UPSCALE INTO A LINE OF STORMS THAT MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING AND STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (WHICH COULD PROMOTE THE MERGING OF STRONG
OUTFLOWS).  RIGHT NOW THIS SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO OUR NORTH...BUT GIVEN
THE POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE NORTH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S...MAYBE A DEGREE WARMER BASED ON THICKNESSES.  LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THU: THE WEAK PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC...
WHILE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO VA. EXPANSIVE
MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE LOWER MISS VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WHILE SUPPRESSING THE
WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH. ABUNDANT HEATING IS ASSURED.... WHICH WILL
PUSH THICKNESSES UP TO 5-10 M ABOVE NORMAL... INDICATING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER-MID 90S. FALLING DEWPOINTS WITH MIXING BY AFTERNOON SHOULD
KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW CRITICAL VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
(ALTHOUGH THEY MAY EXCEED 100F BRIEFLY IN THE SE CWA). GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND NEAR-NORMAL PW... ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW AND CONFINED TO THE EXTREME NORTH...
POTENTIALLY ALONG OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
(PERHAPS ENHANCED BY A LOW CROSSING MD/DE)... AND ALONG AN INLAND-
MOVING SEA BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY.

FRI: THE SYNOPTIC FRONT TO THE NORTH APPEARS LIKELY TO DIP NEAR OR
JUST INTO NE NC... WITH A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW POTENTIALLY DROPPING
FURTHER SOUTH WELL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC... WHILE ALOFT... THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY. WITH THE SUBSEQUENT TILT/DIP IN THE WESTERLIES DOWN THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST... MODELS DO TREND TOWARD A BIT MORE WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD BRUSHING NE NC FRI NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOW (MUCAPE UNDER 750
J/KG ON THE GFS)... AND PW WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVER THE
ERN CWA. WILL PLACE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/NE CWA AND IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN... ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THICKNESSES WILL
AGAIN BE 5-10 M ABOVE NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS 70-74 WITH LINGERING ISOLATED POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

SAT-MON: THE COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
AND UP THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND RESULTING STRENGTHENING NW
FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL PLACE NC IN A MORE ACTIVE AND VOLATILE
WEATHER PATTERN... HIGHLIGHTED BY POCKETS OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CROSSING OUR REGION IN NW STEERING FLOW... TRACKING ALONG THE
OLD DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...
ORIGINATING IN A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE MIDWEST AND
THE OH VALLEY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER VA/NC. WHILE WE CAN`T
ACCURATELY TRACK SPECIFIC FEATURES AT THIS RANGE... THE IMPROVING
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH GREATER DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
SUPPORT BOOSTING POPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS
PERIOD... AND NOT NECESSARILY PEAKING IN THE TYPICAL LATE-DAY TIME
FRAME EITHER... AS HIGH LAPSE RATES WITHIN AN UPSTREAM EML MAY
SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. STILL EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES TO EQUATE TO WARM TEMPS TOPPING OUT DAILY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S... AND THE THREAT OF 100+F HEAT INDEX VALUES
PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
LITTLE STRONGER FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
MAY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS BY 10-12Z.  HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE ISN`T
REALLY INDICATING MUCH MORE THAN JUST A  FEW PATCHES OF IFR
STRATUS...SO THE LATEST TAF WILL REFLECT LESS IN THE WAY OF
RESTRICTIONS.  WHATEVER LOW CLOUDS THAT DO FORM WILL BURN OFF BY
14Z...AND SCATTERED CU IN THE 3-4K FT RANGE WILL DEVELOP FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH DRIER AIR ON CENTRAL NC...ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN...PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF KFAY AND/OR KRWI AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.  SOME AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...ALONG WITH EARLY MORNING VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KRAH 070743
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
340 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LING SHEAR AXIS PARALLEL IN APPALACHIAN
SPINE THIS MORNING...WITH THE FORMER UPPER LOW OVER WESTER VIRGINIA
AS IT CONTINUES TO SHEAR AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT THE
SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS DOWN THE PIEDMONT OF VA AND NC...WITH A
STRONGER SYNOPTIC FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST MOVING ACROSS WI/IL/MO.

TODAY...EARLY MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY 925MB FLOW IS AROUND 15-20KT...BUT THE RAP/HRRR
SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SATURATION...SO ANYTHING THAT FORMS WILL
BE VERY THIN AND WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY.   THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR
AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY..BUT SOME WESTERLY MID-
LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST...WITH
PW FALLING BELOW 1.5" ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND
DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AGAIN CROSS THE
WEST. ANY APPRECIABLE MLCAPE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN..AND EVEN THERE VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 1000 J/KG OR LESS.
THUS...THE FORCING/INSTABILITY OVERLAP REALLY APPEARS TO BE NEAR I-
95 AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON...SO POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED AND FOCUSED
ACROSS THE EAST....AND THIS IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE HRR AND
VARIOUS OTHER CAMS.

HIGHS SHOULD BE AS MUCH AS 2-4 DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS THICKNESSES
WILL BE 10-15M HIGHER AND MIXING DEEP. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS WARMING AND WILL BE CONTINUED.

CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TODAY AND COME TO AN END BY
00Z...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S UNDER
CLEARING SKIES BUT AN UNCHANGED AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BECOMING
LAID OUT WEST TO EAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
THE LEE TROUGH WILL AGAIN SET UP OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY AGAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.  ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
HIGHER TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS.   THE BIG UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CONVECTION IS WHETHER OR NOT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...ONE OF A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES TO TRACK NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR NORTH...WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG BLUE RIDGE...WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY GROW
UPSCALE INTO A LINE OF STORMS THAT MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING AND STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (WHICH COULD PROMOTE THE MERGING OF STRONG
OUTFLOWS).  RIGHT NOW THIS SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO OUR NORTH...BUT GIVEN
THE POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE NORTH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S...MAYBE A DEGREE WARMER BASED ON THICKNESSES.  LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THU: THE WEAK PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC...
WHILE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO VA. EXPANSIVE
MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE LOWER MISS VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WHILE SUPPRESSING THE
WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH. ABUNDANT HEATING IS ASSURED.... WHICH WILL
PUSH THICKNESSES UP TO 5-10 M ABOVE NORMAL... INDICATING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER-MID 90S. FALLING DEWPOINTS WITH MIXING BY AFTERNOON SHOULD
KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW CRITICAL VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
(ALTHOUGH THEY MAY EXCEED 100F BRIEFLY IN THE SE CWA). GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND NEAR-NORMAL PW... ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW AND CONFINED TO THE EXTREME NORTH...
POTENTIALLY ALONG OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
(PERHAPS ENHANCED BY A LOW CROSSING MD/DE)... AND ALONG AN INLAND-
MOVING SEA BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY.

FRI: THE SYNOPTIC FRONT TO THE NORTH APPEARS LIKELY TO DIP NEAR OR
JUST INTO NE NC... WITH A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW POTENTIALLY DROPPING
FURTHER SOUTH WELL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC... WHILE ALOFT... THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY. WITH THE SUBSEQUENT TILT/DIP IN THE WESTERLIES DOWN THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST... MODELS DO TREND TOWARD A BIT MORE WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD BRUSHING NE NC FRI NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOW (MUCAPE UNDER 750
J/KG ON THE GFS)... AND PW WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVER THE
ERN CWA. WILL PLACE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/NE CWA AND IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN... ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THICKNESSES WILL
AGAIN BE 5-10 M ABOVE NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS 70-74 WITH LINGERING ISOLATED POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

SAT-MON: THE COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
AND UP THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND RESULTING STRENGTHENING NW
FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL PLACE NC IN A MORE ACTIVE AND VOLATILE
WEATHER PATTERN... HIGHLIGHTED BY POCKETS OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CROSSING OUR REGION IN NW STEERING FLOW... TRACKING ALONG THE
OLD DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...
ORIGINATING IN A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE MIDWEST AND
THE OH VALLEY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER VA/NC. WHILE WE CAN`T
ACCURATELY TRACK SPECIFIC FEATURES AT THIS RANGE... THE IMPROVING
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH GREATER DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
SUPPORT BOOSTING POPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS
PERIOD... AND NOT NECESSARILY PEAKING IN THE TYPICAL LATE-DAY TIME
FRAME EITHER... AS HIGH LAPSE RATES WITHIN AN UPSTREAM EML MAY
SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. STILL EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES TO EQUATE TO WARM TEMPS TOPPING OUT DAILY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S... AND THE THREAT OF 100+F HEAT INDEX VALUES
PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
LITTLE STRONGER FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
MAY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS BY 10-12Z.  HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE ISN`T
REALLY INDICATING MUCH MORE THAN JUST A  FEW PATCHES OF IFR
STRATUS...SO THE LATEST TAF WILL REFLECT LESS IN THE WAY OF
RESTRICTIONS.  WHATEVER LOW CLOUDS THAT DO FORM WILL BURN OFF BY
14Z...AND SCATTERED CU IN THE 3-4K FT RANGE WILL DEVELOP FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH DRIER AIR ON CENTRAL NC...ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN...PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF KFAY AND/OR KRWI AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.  SOME AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...ALONG WITH EARLY MORNING VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...22





000
FXUS62 KRAH 070743
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
340 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LING SHEAR AXIS PARALLEL IN APPALACHIAN
SPINE THIS MORNING...WITH THE FORMER UPPER LOW OVER WESTER VIRGINIA
AS IT CONTINUES TO SHEAR AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT THE
SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS DOWN THE PIEDMONT OF VA AND NC...WITH A
STRONGER SYNOPTIC FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST MOVING ACROSS WI/IL/MO.

TODAY...EARLY MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY 925MB FLOW IS AROUND 15-20KT...BUT THE RAP/HRRR
SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SATURATION...SO ANYTHING THAT FORMS WILL
BE VERY THIN AND WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY.   THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR
AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY..BUT SOME WESTERLY MID-
LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST...WITH
PW FALLING BELOW 1.5" ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND
DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AGAIN CROSS THE
WEST. ANY APPRECIABLE MLCAPE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN..AND EVEN THERE VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 1000 J/KG OR LESS.
THUS...THE FORCING/INSTABILITY OVERLAP REALLY APPEARS TO BE NEAR I-
95 AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON...SO POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED AND FOCUSED
ACROSS THE EAST....AND THIS IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE HRR AND
VARIOUS OTHER CAMS.

HIGHS SHOULD BE AS MUCH AS 2-4 DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS THICKNESSES
WILL BE 10-15M HIGHER AND MIXING DEEP. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS WARMING AND WILL BE CONTINUED.

CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TODAY AND COME TO AN END BY
00Z...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S UNDER
CLEARING SKIES BUT AN UNCHANGED AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BECOMING
LAID OUT WEST TO EAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
THE LEE TROUGH WILL AGAIN SET UP OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY AGAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.  ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
HIGHER TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS.   THE BIG UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CONVECTION IS WHETHER OR NOT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...ONE OF A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES TO TRACK NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR NORTH...WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG BLUE RIDGE...WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY GROW
UPSCALE INTO A LINE OF STORMS THAT MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING AND STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (WHICH COULD PROMOTE THE MERGING OF STRONG
OUTFLOWS).  RIGHT NOW THIS SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO OUR NORTH...BUT GIVEN
THE POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE NORTH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S...MAYBE A DEGREE WARMER BASED ON THICKNESSES.  LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THU: THE WEAK PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC...
WHILE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO VA. EXPANSIVE
MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE LOWER MISS VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WHILE SUPPRESSING THE
WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH. ABUNDANT HEATING IS ASSURED.... WHICH WILL
PUSH THICKNESSES UP TO 5-10 M ABOVE NORMAL... INDICATING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER-MID 90S. FALLING DEWPOINTS WITH MIXING BY AFTERNOON SHOULD
KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW CRITICAL VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
(ALTHOUGH THEY MAY EXCEED 100F BRIEFLY IN THE SE CWA). GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND NEAR-NORMAL PW... ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW AND CONFINED TO THE EXTREME NORTH...
POTENTIALLY ALONG OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
(PERHAPS ENHANCED BY A LOW CROSSING MD/DE)... AND ALONG AN INLAND-
MOVING SEA BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY.

FRI: THE SYNOPTIC FRONT TO THE NORTH APPEARS LIKELY TO DIP NEAR OR
JUST INTO NE NC... WITH A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW POTENTIALLY DROPPING
FURTHER SOUTH WELL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC... WHILE ALOFT... THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY. WITH THE SUBSEQUENT TILT/DIP IN THE WESTERLIES DOWN THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST... MODELS DO TREND TOWARD A BIT MORE WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD BRUSHING NE NC FRI NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOW (MUCAPE UNDER 750
J/KG ON THE GFS)... AND PW WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVER THE
ERN CWA. WILL PLACE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/NE CWA AND IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN... ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THICKNESSES WILL
AGAIN BE 5-10 M ABOVE NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS 70-74 WITH LINGERING ISOLATED POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

SAT-MON: THE COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
AND UP THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND RESULTING STRENGTHENING NW
FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL PLACE NC IN A MORE ACTIVE AND VOLATILE
WEATHER PATTERN... HIGHLIGHTED BY POCKETS OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CROSSING OUR REGION IN NW STEERING FLOW... TRACKING ALONG THE
OLD DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...
ORIGINATING IN A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE MIDWEST AND
THE OH VALLEY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER VA/NC. WHILE WE CAN`T
ACCURATELY TRACK SPECIFIC FEATURES AT THIS RANGE... THE IMPROVING
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH GREATER DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
SUPPORT BOOSTING POPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS
PERIOD... AND NOT NECESSARILY PEAKING IN THE TYPICAL LATE-DAY TIME
FRAME EITHER... AS HIGH LAPSE RATES WITHIN AN UPSTREAM EML MAY
SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. STILL EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES TO EQUATE TO WARM TEMPS TOPPING OUT DAILY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S... AND THE THREAT OF 100+F HEAT INDEX VALUES
PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
LITTLE STRONGER FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
MAY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS BY 10-12Z.  HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE ISN`T
REALLY INDICATING MUCH MORE THAN JUST A  FEW PATCHES OF IFR
STRATUS...SO THE LATEST TAF WILL REFLECT LESS IN THE WAY OF
RESTRICTIONS.  WHATEVER LOW CLOUDS THAT DO FORM WILL BURN OFF BY
14Z...AND SCATTERED CU IN THE 3-4K FT RANGE WILL DEVELOP FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH DRIER AIR ON CENTRAL NC...ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN...PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF KFAY AND/OR KRWI AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.  SOME AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...ALONG WITH EARLY MORNING VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KRAH 070743
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
340 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LING SHEAR AXIS PARALLEL IN APPALACHIAN
SPINE THIS MORNING...WITH THE FORMER UPPER LOW OVER WESTER VIRGINIA
AS IT CONTINUES TO SHEAR AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT THE
SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS DOWN THE PIEDMONT OF VA AND NC...WITH A
STRONGER SYNOPTIC FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST MOVING ACROSS WI/IL/MO.

TODAY...EARLY MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY 925MB FLOW IS AROUND 15-20KT...BUT THE RAP/HRRR
SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SATURATION...SO ANYTHING THAT FORMS WILL
BE VERY THIN AND WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY.   THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR
AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY..BUT SOME WESTERLY MID-
LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST...WITH
PW FALLING BELOW 1.5" ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND
DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AGAIN CROSS THE
WEST. ANY APPRECIABLE MLCAPE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN..AND EVEN THERE VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 1000 J/KG OR LESS.
THUS...THE FORCING/INSTABILITY OVERLAP REALLY APPEARS TO BE NEAR I-
95 AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON...SO POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED AND FOCUSED
ACROSS THE EAST....AND THIS IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE HRR AND
VARIOUS OTHER CAMS.

HIGHS SHOULD BE AS MUCH AS 2-4 DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS THICKNESSES
WILL BE 10-15M HIGHER AND MIXING DEEP. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS WARMING AND WILL BE CONTINUED.

CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TODAY AND COME TO AN END BY
00Z...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S UNDER
CLEARING SKIES BUT AN UNCHANGED AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BECOMING
LAID OUT WEST TO EAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
THE LEE TROUGH WILL AGAIN SET UP OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY AGAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.  ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE SEABREEZE AND/OR
HIGHER TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS.   THE BIG UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
CONVECTION IS WHETHER OR NOT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...ONE OF A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES TO TRACK NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR NORTH...WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG BLUE RIDGE...WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY GROW
UPSCALE INTO A LINE OF STORMS THAT MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN THE DEEP MIXING AND STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (WHICH COULD PROMOTE THE MERGING OF STRONG
OUTFLOWS).  RIGHT NOW THIS SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO OUR NORTH...BUT GIVEN
THE POSSIBILITY...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE NORTH
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S...MAYBE A DEGREE WARMER BASED ON THICKNESSES.  LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THU: THE WEAK PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC...
WHILE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO VA. EXPANSIVE
MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE LOWER MISS VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WHILE SUPPRESSING THE
WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH. ABUNDANT HEATING IS ASSURED.... WHICH WILL
PUSH THICKNESSES UP TO 5-10 M ABOVE NORMAL... INDICATING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER-MID 90S. FALLING DEWPOINTS WITH MIXING BY AFTERNOON SHOULD
KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW CRITICAL VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
(ALTHOUGH THEY MAY EXCEED 100F BRIEFLY IN THE SE CWA). GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND NEAR-NORMAL PW... ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW AND CONFINED TO THE EXTREME NORTH...
POTENTIALLY ALONG OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
(PERHAPS ENHANCED BY A LOW CROSSING MD/DE)... AND ALONG AN INLAND-
MOVING SEA BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY.

FRI: THE SYNOPTIC FRONT TO THE NORTH APPEARS LIKELY TO DIP NEAR OR
JUST INTO NE NC... WITH A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW POTENTIALLY DROPPING
FURTHER SOUTH WELL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC... WHILE ALOFT... THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY. WITH THE SUBSEQUENT TILT/DIP IN THE WESTERLIES DOWN THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST... MODELS DO TREND TOWARD A BIT MORE WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD BRUSHING NE NC FRI NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOW (MUCAPE UNDER 750
J/KG ON THE GFS)... AND PW WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVER THE
ERN CWA. WILL PLACE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/NE CWA AND IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN... ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THICKNESSES WILL
AGAIN BE 5-10 M ABOVE NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS 70-74 WITH LINGERING ISOLATED POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

SAT-MON: THE COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
AND UP THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND RESULTING STRENGTHENING NW
FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL PLACE NC IN A MORE ACTIVE AND VOLATILE
WEATHER PATTERN... HIGHLIGHTED BY POCKETS OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CROSSING OUR REGION IN NW STEERING FLOW... TRACKING ALONG THE
OLD DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...
ORIGINATING IN A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE MIDWEST AND
THE OH VALLEY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER VA/NC. WHILE WE CAN`T
ACCURATELY TRACK SPECIFIC FEATURES AT THIS RANGE... THE IMPROVING
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH GREATER DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
SUPPORT BOOSTING POPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS
PERIOD... AND NOT NECESSARILY PEAKING IN THE TYPICAL LATE-DAY TIME
FRAME EITHER... AS HIGH LAPSE RATES WITHIN AN UPSTREAM EML MAY
SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. STILL EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES TO EQUATE TO WARM TEMPS TOPPING OUT DAILY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S... AND THE THREAT OF 100+F HEAT INDEX VALUES
PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
LITTLE STRONGER FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
MAY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS BY 10-12Z.  HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE ISN`T
REALLY INDICATING MUCH MORE THAN JUST A  FEW PATCHES OF IFR
STRATUS...SO THE LATEST TAF WILL REFLECT LESS IN THE WAY OF
RESTRICTIONS.  WHATEVER LOW CLOUDS THAT DO FORM WILL BURN OFF BY
14Z...AND SCATTERED CU IN THE 3-4K FT RANGE WILL DEVELOP FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH DRIER AIR ON CENTRAL NC...ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN...PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF KFAY AND/OR KRWI AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.  SOME AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...ALONG WITH EARLY MORNING VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...22





000
FXUS62 KRAH 070732
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LING SHEAR AXIS PARALLEL IN APPALACHIAN
SPINE THIS MORNING...WITH THE FORMER UPPER LOW OVER WESTER VIRGINIA
AS IT CONTINUES TO SHEAR AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT THE
SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS DOWN THE PIEDMONT OF VA AND NC...WITH A
STRONGER SYNOPTIC FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST MOVING ACROSS WI/IL/MO.

TODAY...EARLY MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY 925MB FLOW IS AROUND 15-20KT...BUT THE RAP/HRRR
SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SATURATION...SO ANYTHING THAT FORMS WILL
BE VERY THIN AND WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY.   THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR
AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY..BUT SOME WESTERLY MID-
LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST...WITH
PW FALLING BELOW 1.5" ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND
DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AGAIN CROSS THE
WEST. ANY APPRECIABLE MLCAPE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN..AND EVEN THERE VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 1000 J/KG OR LESS.
THUS...THE FORCING/INSTABILITY OVERLAP REALLY APPEARS TO BE NEAR I-
95 AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON...SO POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED AND FOCUSED
ACROSS THE EAST....AND THIS IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE HRR AND
VARIOUS OTHER CAMS.

HIGHS SHOULD BE AS MUCH AS 2-4 DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS THICKNESSES
WILL BE 10-15M HIGHER AND MIXING DEEP. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS WARMING AND WILL BE CONTINUED.

CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TODAY AND COME TO AN END BY
00Z...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S UNDER
CLEARING SKIES BUT AN UNCHANGED AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM MONDAY...

EXPECT A PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS TO START THE DAY WITH
CLOUDS LIFTING AND INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARRIVING TOWARD MID TO LATE
MORNING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE LIMITED AS
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH SOMEWHAT AND THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT
WITH PW VALUES DROPPING 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON TO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT COULD HELP TO INITIATE WIDELY SCATTED CONVECTION.
GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THICKNESS VALUES
INCREASE A BIT AS HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE 89 TO 94 RANGE. -BLAES

&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THU: THE WEAK PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC...
WHILE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO VA. EXPANSIVE
MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE LOWER MISS VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WHILE SUPPRESSING THE
WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH. ABUNDANT HEATING IS ASSURED.... WHICH WILL
PUSH THICKNESSES UP TO 5-10 M ABOVE NORMAL... INDICATING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER-MID 90S. FALLING DEWPOINTS WITH MIXING BY AFTERNOON SHOULD
KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW CRITICAL VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
(ALTHOUGH THEY MAY EXCEED 100F BRIEFLY IN THE SE CWA). GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND NEAR-NORMAL PW... ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW AND CONFINED TO THE EXTREME NORTH...
POTENTIALLY ALONG OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
(PERHAPS ENHANCED BY A LOW CROSSING MD/DE)... AND ALONG AN INLAND-
MOVING SEA BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY.

FRI: THE SYNOPTIC FRONT TO THE NORTH APPEARS LIKELY TO DIP NEAR OR
JUST INTO NE NC... WITH A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW POTENTIALLY DROPPING
FURTHER SOUTH WELL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC... WHILE ALOFT... THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY. WITH THE SUBSEQUENT TILT/DIP IN THE WESTERLIES DOWN THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST... MODELS DO TREND TOWARD A BIT MORE WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD BRUSHING NE NC FRI NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOW (MUCAPE UNDER 750
J/KG ON THE GFS)... AND PW WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVER THE
ERN CWA. WILL PLACE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/NE CWA AND IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN... ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THICKNESSES WILL
AGAIN BE 5-10 M ABOVE NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS 70-74 WITH LINGERING ISOLATED POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

SAT-MON: THE COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
AND UP THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND RESULTING STRENGTHENING NW
FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL PLACE NC IN A MORE ACTIVE AND VOLATILE
WEATHER PATTERN... HIGHLIGHTED BY POCKETS OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CROSSING OUR REGION IN NW STEERING FLOW... TRACKING ALONG THE
OLD DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...
ORIGINATING IN A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE MIDWEST AND
THE OH VALLEY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER VA/NC. WHILE WE CAN`T
ACCURATELY TRACK SPECIFIC FEATURES AT THIS RANGE... THE IMPROVING
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH GREATER DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
SUPPORT BOOSTING POPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS
PERIOD... AND NOT NECESSARILY PEAKING IN THE TYPICAL LATE-DAY TIME
FRAME EITHER... AS HIGH LAPSE RATES WITHIN AN UPSTREAM EML MAY
SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. STILL EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES TO EQUATE TO WARM TEMPS TOPPING OUT DAILY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S... AND THE THREAT OF 100+F HEAT INDEX VALUES
PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
LITTLE STRONGER FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
MAY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS BY 10-12Z.  HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE ISN`T
REALLY INDICATING MUCH MORE THAN JUST A  FEW PATCHES OF IFR
STRATUS...SO THE LATEST TAF WILL REFLECT LESS IN THE WAY OF
RESTRICTIONS.  WHATEVER LOW CLOUDS THAT DO FORM WILL BURN OFF BY
14Z...AND SCATTERED CU IN THE 3-4K FT RANGE WILL DEVELOP FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH DRIER AIR ON CENTRAL NC...ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN...PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF KFAY AND/OR KRWI AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.  SOME AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...ALONG WITH EARLY MORNING VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KRAH 070732
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LING SHEAR AXIS PARALLEL IN APPALACHIAN
SPINE THIS MORNING...WITH THE FORMER UPPER LOW OVER WESTER VIRGINIA
AS IT CONTINUES TO SHEAR AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT THE
SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS DOWN THE PIEDMONT OF VA AND NC...WITH A
STRONGER SYNOPTIC FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST MOVING ACROSS WI/IL/MO.

TODAY...EARLY MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY 925MB FLOW IS AROUND 15-20KT...BUT THE RAP/HRRR
SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SATURATION...SO ANYTHING THAT FORMS WILL
BE VERY THIN AND WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY.   THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR
AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY..BUT SOME WESTERLY MID-
LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST...WITH
PW FALLING BELOW 1.5" ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND
DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOW/MID 60S AGAIN CROSS THE
WEST. ANY APPRECIABLE MLCAPE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN..AND EVEN THERE VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 1000 J/KG OR LESS.
THUS...THE FORCING/INSTABILITY OVERLAP REALLY APPEARS TO BE NEAR I-
95 AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON...SO POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED AND FOCUSED
ACROSS THE EAST....AND THIS IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE HRR AND
VARIOUS OTHER CAMS.

HIGHS SHOULD BE AS MUCH AS 2-4 DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS THICKNESSES
WILL BE 10-15M HIGHER AND MIXING DEEP. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS WARMING AND WILL BE CONTINUED.

CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TODAY AND COME TO AN END BY
00Z...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S UNDER
CLEARING SKIES BUT AN UNCHANGED AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM MONDAY...

EXPECT A PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS TO START THE DAY WITH
CLOUDS LIFTING AND INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARRIVING TOWARD MID TO LATE
MORNING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE LIMITED AS
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH SOMEWHAT AND THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT
WITH PW VALUES DROPPING 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON TO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT COULD HELP TO INITIATE WIDELY SCATTED CONVECTION.
GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THICKNESS VALUES
INCREASE A BIT AS HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE 89 TO 94 RANGE. -BLAES

&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THU: THE WEAK PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC...
WHILE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO VA. EXPANSIVE
MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE LOWER MISS VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WHILE SUPPRESSING THE
WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH. ABUNDANT HEATING IS ASSURED.... WHICH WILL
PUSH THICKNESSES UP TO 5-10 M ABOVE NORMAL... INDICATING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER-MID 90S. FALLING DEWPOINTS WITH MIXING BY AFTERNOON SHOULD
KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW CRITICAL VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
(ALTHOUGH THEY MAY EXCEED 100F BRIEFLY IN THE SE CWA). GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND NEAR-NORMAL PW... ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW AND CONFINED TO THE EXTREME NORTH...
POTENTIALLY ALONG OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
(PERHAPS ENHANCED BY A LOW CROSSING MD/DE)... AND ALONG AN INLAND-
MOVING SEA BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY.

FRI: THE SYNOPTIC FRONT TO THE NORTH APPEARS LIKELY TO DIP NEAR OR
JUST INTO NE NC... WITH A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW POTENTIALLY DROPPING
FURTHER SOUTH WELL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC... WHILE ALOFT... THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY. WITH THE SUBSEQUENT TILT/DIP IN THE WESTERLIES DOWN THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST... MODELS DO TREND TOWARD A BIT MORE WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD BRUSHING NE NC FRI NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOW (MUCAPE UNDER 750
J/KG ON THE GFS)... AND PW WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVER THE
ERN CWA. WILL PLACE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/NE CWA AND IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN... ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THICKNESSES WILL
AGAIN BE 5-10 M ABOVE NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS 70-74 WITH LINGERING ISOLATED POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

SAT-MON: THE COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
AND UP THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND RESULTING STRENGTHENING NW
FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL PLACE NC IN A MORE ACTIVE AND VOLATILE
WEATHER PATTERN... HIGHLIGHTED BY POCKETS OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CROSSING OUR REGION IN NW STEERING FLOW... TRACKING ALONG THE
OLD DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...
ORIGINATING IN A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE MIDWEST AND
THE OH VALLEY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER VA/NC. WHILE WE CAN`T
ACCURATELY TRACK SPECIFIC FEATURES AT THIS RANGE... THE IMPROVING
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH GREATER DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
SUPPORT BOOSTING POPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS
PERIOD... AND NOT NECESSARILY PEAKING IN THE TYPICAL LATE-DAY TIME
FRAME EITHER... AS HIGH LAPSE RATES WITHIN AN UPSTREAM EML MAY
SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. STILL EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES TO EQUATE TO WARM TEMPS TOPPING OUT DAILY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S... AND THE THREAT OF 100+F HEAT INDEX VALUES
PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
LITTLE STRONGER FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
MAY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS BY 10-12Z.  HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE ISN`T
REALLY INDICATING MUCH MORE THAN JUST A  FEW PATCHES OF IFR
STRATUS...SO THE LATEST TAF WILL REFLECT LESS IN THE WAY OF
RESTRICTIONS.  WHATEVER LOW CLOUDS THAT DO FORM WILL BURN OFF BY
14Z...AND SCATTERED CU IN THE 3-4K FT RANGE WILL DEVELOP FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH DRIER AIR ON CENTRAL NC...ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN...PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF KFAY AND/OR KRWI AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.  SOME AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...ALONG WITH EARLY MORNING VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...22





000
FXUS62 KRAH 070727
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 PM MONDAY...

ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
HAS SHOWN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND SINCE 00Z. THE EXCEPTION IS A BROKEN
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED T-STORMS WHICH EXTEND FROM EAST
OF THOMASVILLE TO NEAR ROXBORO. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION OCCURRING
ALONG A WEAK 850-700MB TROUGH WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT ALOFT
FROM A VORT AXIS LIFTING N-NE ACROSS WESTERN NC. DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF THIS FEATURE INTERACTING WITH THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND LOW
LEVEL (THOUGH WEAK) INSTABILITY...SHOULD SEE ISOLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION PERSIST WEST OF HIGHWAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH A
DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE AREAS OF STRATUS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
THOUGH EXPECT IT TO BE RELATIVELY THIN AND BRIEF IN DURATION. MIN
TEMPS 68-73.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM MONDAY...

EXPECT A PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS TO START THE DAY WITH
CLOUDS LIFTING AND INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARRIVING TOWARD MID TO LATE
MORNING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE LIMITED AS
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH SOMEWHAT AND THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT
WITH PW VALUES DROPPING 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON TO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT COULD HELP TO INITIATE WIDELY SCATTED CONVECTION.
GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THICKNESS VALUES
INCREASE A BIT AS HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE 89 TO 94 RANGE. -BLAES

&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THU: THE WEAK PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC...
WHILE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO VA. EXPANSIVE
MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE LOWER MISS VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WHILE SUPPRESSING THE
WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH. ABUNDANT HEATING IS ASSURED.... WHICH WILL
PUSH THICKNESSES UP TO 5-10 M ABOVE NORMAL... INDICATING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER-MID 90S. FALLING DEWPOINTS WITH MIXING BY AFTERNOON SHOULD
KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW CRITICAL VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
(ALTHOUGH THEY MAY EXCEED 100F BRIEFLY IN THE SE CWA). GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND NEAR-NORMAL PW... ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW AND CONFINED TO THE EXTREME NORTH...
POTENTIALLY ALONG OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
(PERHAPS ENHANCED BY A LOW CROSSING MD/DE)... AND ALONG AN INLAND-
MOVING SEA BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY.

FRI: THE SYNOPTIC FRONT TO THE NORTH APPEARS LIKELY TO DIP NEAR OR
JUST INTO NE NC... WITH A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW POTENTIALLY DROPPING
FURTHER SOUTH WELL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC... WHILE ALOFT... THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY. WITH THE SUBSEQUENT TILT/DIP IN THE WESTERLIES DOWN THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST... MODELS DO TREND TOWARD A BIT MORE WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD BRUSHING NE NC FRI NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOW (MUCAPE UNDER 750
J/KG ON THE GFS)... AND PW WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVER THE
ERN CWA. WILL PLACE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/NE CWA AND IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN... ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THICKNESSES WILL
AGAIN BE 5-10 M ABOVE NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS 70-74 WITH LINGERING ISOLATED POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

SAT-MON: THE COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
AND UP THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND RESULTING STRENGTHENING NW
FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL PLACE NC IN A MORE ACTIVE AND VOLATILE
WEATHER PATTERN... HIGHLIGHTED BY POCKETS OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CROSSING OUR REGION IN NW STEERING FLOW... TRACKING ALONG THE
OLD DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...
ORIGINATING IN A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE MIDWEST AND
THE OH VALLEY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER VA/NC. WHILE WE CAN`T
ACCURATELY TRACK SPECIFIC FEATURES AT THIS RANGE... THE IMPROVING
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH GREATER DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
SUPPORT BOOSTING POPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS
PERIOD... AND NOT NECESSARILY PEAKING IN THE TYPICAL LATE-DAY TIME
FRAME EITHER... AS HIGH LAPSE RATES WITHIN AN UPSTREAM EML MAY
SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. STILL EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES TO EQUATE TO WARM TEMPS TOPPING OUT DAILY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S... AND THE THREAT OF 100+F HEAT INDEX VALUES
PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
LITTLE STRONGER FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
MAY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS BY 10-12Z.  HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE ISN`T
REALLY INDICATING MUCH MORE THAN JUST A  FEW PATCHES OF IFR
STRATUS...SO THE LATEST TAF WILL REFLECT LESS IN THE WAY OF
RESTRICTIONS.  WHATEVER LOW CLOUDS THAT DO FORM WILL BURN OFF BY
14Z...AND SCATTERED CU IN THE 3-4K FT RANGE WILL DEVELOP FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH DRIER AIR ON CENTRAL NC...ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN...PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF KFAY AND/OR KRWI AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.  SOME AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...ALONG WITH EARLY MORNING VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...22





000
FXUS62 KRAH 070727
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 PM MONDAY...

ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
HAS SHOWN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND SINCE 00Z. THE EXCEPTION IS A BROKEN
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED T-STORMS WHICH EXTEND FROM EAST
OF THOMASVILLE TO NEAR ROXBORO. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION OCCURRING
ALONG A WEAK 850-700MB TROUGH WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT ALOFT
FROM A VORT AXIS LIFTING N-NE ACROSS WESTERN NC. DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF THIS FEATURE INTERACTING WITH THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND LOW
LEVEL (THOUGH WEAK) INSTABILITY...SHOULD SEE ISOLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION PERSIST WEST OF HIGHWAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH A
DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE AREAS OF STRATUS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
THOUGH EXPECT IT TO BE RELATIVELY THIN AND BRIEF IN DURATION. MIN
TEMPS 68-73.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM MONDAY...

EXPECT A PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS TO START THE DAY WITH
CLOUDS LIFTING AND INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARRIVING TOWARD MID TO LATE
MORNING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE LIMITED AS
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH SOMEWHAT AND THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT
WITH PW VALUES DROPPING 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON TO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT COULD HELP TO INITIATE WIDELY SCATTED CONVECTION.
GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THICKNESS VALUES
INCREASE A BIT AS HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE 89 TO 94 RANGE. -BLAES

&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THU: THE WEAK PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC...
WHILE THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO VA. EXPANSIVE
MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE LOWER MISS VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WHILE SUPPRESSING THE
WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH. ABUNDANT HEATING IS ASSURED.... WHICH WILL
PUSH THICKNESSES UP TO 5-10 M ABOVE NORMAL... INDICATING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER-MID 90S. FALLING DEWPOINTS WITH MIXING BY AFTERNOON SHOULD
KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW CRITICAL VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
(ALTHOUGH THEY MAY EXCEED 100F BRIEFLY IN THE SE CWA). GIVEN THE
DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND NEAR-NORMAL PW... ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW AND CONFINED TO THE EXTREME NORTH...
POTENTIALLY ALONG OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT
(PERHAPS ENHANCED BY A LOW CROSSING MD/DE)... AND ALONG AN INLAND-
MOVING SEA BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY.

FRI: THE SYNOPTIC FRONT TO THE NORTH APPEARS LIKELY TO DIP NEAR OR
JUST INTO NE NC... WITH A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW POTENTIALLY DROPPING
FURTHER SOUTH WELL INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC... WHILE ALOFT... THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY. WITH THE SUBSEQUENT TILT/DIP IN THE WESTERLIES DOWN THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST... MODELS DO TREND TOWARD A BIT MORE WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD BRUSHING NE NC FRI NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LOW (MUCAPE UNDER 750
J/KG ON THE GFS)... AND PW WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVER THE
ERN CWA. WILL PLACE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/NE CWA AND IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN... ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. THICKNESSES WILL
AGAIN BE 5-10 M ABOVE NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LOW-MID 80S. LOWS 70-74 WITH LINGERING ISOLATED POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

SAT-MON: THE COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
AND UP THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND RESULTING STRENGTHENING NW
FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST WILL PLACE NC IN A MORE ACTIVE AND VOLATILE
WEATHER PATTERN... HIGHLIGHTED BY POCKETS OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CROSSING OUR REGION IN NW STEERING FLOW... TRACKING ALONG THE
OLD DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...
ORIGINATING IN A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE MIDWEST AND
THE OH VALLEY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER VA/NC. WHILE WE CAN`T
ACCURATELY TRACK SPECIFIC FEATURES AT THIS RANGE... THE IMPROVING
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH GREATER DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
SUPPORT BOOSTING POPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY DURING THIS
PERIOD... AND NOT NECESSARILY PEAKING IN THE TYPICAL LATE-DAY TIME
FRAME EITHER... AS HIGH LAPSE RATES WITHIN AN UPSTREAM EML MAY
SUSTAIN NOCTURNAL CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. STILL EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES TO EQUATE TO WARM TEMPS TOPPING OUT DAILY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S... AND THE THREAT OF 100+F HEAT INDEX VALUES
PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL LINGER
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
LITTLE STRONGER FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
MAY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS BY 10-12Z.  HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE ISN`T
REALLY INDICATING MUCH MORE THAN JUST A  FEW PATCHES OF IFR
STRATUS...SO THE LATEST TAF WILL REFLECT LESS IN THE WAY OF
RESTRICTIONS.  WHATEVER LOW CLOUDS THAT DO FORM WILL BURN OFF BY
14Z...AND SCATTERED CU IN THE 3-4K FT RANGE WILL DEVELOP FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH DRIER AIR ON CENTRAL NC...ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN...PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF KFAY AND/OR KRWI AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.  SOME AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...ALONG WITH EARLY MORNING VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KRAH 070544
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 PM MONDAY...

ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
HAS SHOWN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND SINCE 00Z. THE EXCEPTION IS A BROKEN
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED T-STORMS WHICH EXTEND FROM EAST
OF THOMASVILLE TO NEAR ROXBORO. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION OCCURRING
ALONG A WEAK 850-700MB TROUGH WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT ALOFT
FROM A VORT AXIS LIFTING N-NE ACROSS WESTERN NC. DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF THIS FEATURE INTERACTING WITH THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND LOW
LEVEL (THOUGH WEAK) INSTABILITY...SHOULD SEE ISOLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION PERSIST WEST OF HIGHWAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH A
DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE AREAS OF STRATUS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
THOUGH EXPECT IT TO BE RELATIVELY THIN AND BRIEF IN DURATION. MIN
TEMPS 68-73.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM MONDAY...

EXPECT A PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS TO START THE DAY WITH
CLOUDS LIFTING AND INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARRIVING TOWARD MID TO LATE
MORNING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE LIMITED AS
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH SOMEWHAT AND THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT
WITH PW VALUES DROPPING 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON TO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT COULD HELP TO INITIATE WIDELY SCATTED CONVECTION.
GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THICKNESS VALUES
INCREASE A BIT AS HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE 89 TO 94 RANGE. -BLAES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM MONDAY...

GRADUAL WESTWARD REGRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL LIFT THE
WESTERLIES AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE
MIDWEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE MAKES A SOUTHERLY JOG ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH ENSUING
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A GRADUAL UPTICK IN HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE RIDING WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DUE
TO PROXIMITY WITH THE ACTIVE WESTERLIES ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 90 ACROSS THE NORTH TO 95 IN THE SOUTH AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

OVER THE WEEKEND...DEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES WANDER IN TO INITIATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL THUS MAINTAIN CHANCE (30-40)
POPS...SHADED TOWARDS MAX HEATING EACH DAY...ON SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...MOSTLY IN THE MID
90S...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
LITTLE STRONGER FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
MAY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS BY 10-12Z.  HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE ISN`T
REALLY INDICATING MUCH MORE THAN JUST A  FEW PATCHES OF IFR
STRATUS...SO THE LATEST TAF WILL REFLECT LESS IN THE WAY OF
RESTRICTIONS.  WHATEVER LOW CLOUDS THAT DO FORM WILL BURN OFF BY
14Z...AND SCATTERED CU IN THE 3-4K FT RANGE WILL DEVELOP FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH DRIER AIR ON CENTRAL NC...ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN...PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF KFAY AND/OR KRWI AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.  SOME AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...ALONG WITH EARLY MORNING VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...22




000
FXUS62 KRAH 070544
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 PM MONDAY...

ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
HAS SHOWN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND SINCE 00Z. THE EXCEPTION IS A BROKEN
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED T-STORMS WHICH EXTEND FROM EAST
OF THOMASVILLE TO NEAR ROXBORO. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION OCCURRING
ALONG A WEAK 850-700MB TROUGH WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT ALOFT
FROM A VORT AXIS LIFTING N-NE ACROSS WESTERN NC. DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF THIS FEATURE INTERACTING WITH THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND LOW
LEVEL (THOUGH WEAK) INSTABILITY...SHOULD SEE ISOLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION PERSIST WEST OF HIGHWAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH A
DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE AREAS OF STRATUS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
THOUGH EXPECT IT TO BE RELATIVELY THIN AND BRIEF IN DURATION. MIN
TEMPS 68-73.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM MONDAY...

EXPECT A PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS TO START THE DAY WITH
CLOUDS LIFTING AND INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARRIVING TOWARD MID TO LATE
MORNING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE LIMITED AS
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH SOMEWHAT AND THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT
WITH PW VALUES DROPPING 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON TO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT COULD HELP TO INITIATE WIDELY SCATTED CONVECTION.
GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THICKNESS VALUES
INCREASE A BIT AS HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE 89 TO 94 RANGE. -BLAES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM MONDAY...

GRADUAL WESTWARD REGRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL LIFT THE
WESTERLIES AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE
MIDWEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE MAKES A SOUTHERLY JOG ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH ENSUING
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A GRADUAL UPTICK IN HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE RIDING WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DUE
TO PROXIMITY WITH THE ACTIVE WESTERLIES ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 90 ACROSS THE NORTH TO 95 IN THE SOUTH AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

OVER THE WEEKEND...DEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES WANDER IN TO INITIATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL THUS MAINTAIN CHANCE (30-40)
POPS...SHADED TOWARDS MAX HEATING EACH DAY...ON SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...MOSTLY IN THE MID
90S...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A
LITTLE STRONGER FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
MAY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS BY 10-12Z.  HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE ISN`T
REALLY INDICATING MUCH MORE THAN JUST A  FEW PATCHES OF IFR
STRATUS...SO THE LATEST TAF WILL REFLECT LESS IN THE WAY OF
RESTRICTIONS.  WHATEVER LOW CLOUDS THAT DO FORM WILL BURN OFF BY
14Z...AND SCATTERED CU IN THE 3-4K FT RANGE WILL DEVELOP FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH DRIER AIR ON CENTRAL NC...ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN...PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF KFAY AND/OR KRWI AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION.  SOME AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...ALONG WITH EARLY MORNING VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...22





000
FXUS62 KRAH 070111
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
915 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 PM MONDAY...

ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
HAS SHOWN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND SINCE 00Z. THE EXCEPTION IS A BROKEN
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED T-STORMS WHICH EXTEND FROM EAST
OF THOMASVILLE TO NEAR ROXBORO. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION OCCURRING
ALONG A WEAK 850-700MB TROUGH WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT ALOFT
FROM A VORT AXIS LIFTING N-NE ACROSS WESTERN NC. DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF THIS FEATURE INTERACTING WITH THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND LOW
LEVEL (THOUGH WEAK) INSTABILITY...SHOULD SEE ISOLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION PERSIST WEST OF HIGHWAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH A
DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE AREAS OF STRATUS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
THOUGH EXPECT IT TO BE RELATIVELY THIN AND BRIEF IN DURATION. MIN
TEMPS 68-73.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM MONDAY...

EXPECT A PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS TO START THE DAY WITH
CLOUDS LIFTING AND INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARRIVING TOWARD MID TO LATE
MORNING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE LIMITED AS
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH SOMEWHAT AND THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT
WITH PW VALUES DROPPING 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON TO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT COULD HELP TO INITIATE WIDELY SCATTED CONVECTION.
GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THICKNESS VALUES
INCREASE A BIT AS HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE 89 TO 94 RANGE. -BLAES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM MONDAY...

GRADUAL WESTWARD REGRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL LIFT THE
WESTERLIES AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE
MIDWEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE MAKES A SOUTHERLY JOG ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH ENSUING
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A GRADUAL UPTICK IN HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE RIDING WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DUE
TO PROXIMITY WITH THE ACTIVE WESTERLIES ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 90 ACROSS THE NORTH TO 95 IN THE SOUTH AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

OVER THE WEEKEND...DEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES WANDER IN TO INITIATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL THUS MAINTAIN CHANCE (30-40)
POPS...SHADED TOWARDS MAX HEATING EACH DAY...ON SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...MOSTLY IN THE MID
90S...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN PIEDMONT ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. STILL...THE COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE MORE
LIMITED THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND WE WILL OMIT MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE TAFS AND INCLUDE A TEMPO OF SHRA. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS
APPEARS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT SURPRISINGLY GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND DEGREE OF COVERAGE. FOR NOW...
WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO PERIOD BEFORE AND JUST A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE
TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH VFR SKY CONDITIONS LIKELY BY 14Z.
A MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AT AROUND 10KTS OR LESS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
SETTING UP A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE OUTSIDE OF MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK. -BLAES

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION..BLAES





000
FXUS62 KRAH 070111
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
915 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 PM MONDAY...

ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
HAS SHOWN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND SINCE 00Z. THE EXCEPTION IS A BROKEN
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED T-STORMS WHICH EXTEND FROM EAST
OF THOMASVILLE TO NEAR ROXBORO. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION OCCURRING
ALONG A WEAK 850-700MB TROUGH WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT ALOFT
FROM A VORT AXIS LIFTING N-NE ACROSS WESTERN NC. DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF THIS FEATURE INTERACTING WITH THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND LOW
LEVEL (THOUGH WEAK) INSTABILITY...SHOULD SEE ISOLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION PERSIST WEST OF HIGHWAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH A
DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE AREAS OF STRATUS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
THOUGH EXPECT IT TO BE RELATIVELY THIN AND BRIEF IN DURATION. MIN
TEMPS 68-73.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM MONDAY...

EXPECT A PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS TO START THE DAY WITH
CLOUDS LIFTING AND INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARRIVING TOWARD MID TO LATE
MORNING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE LIMITED AS
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH SOMEWHAT AND THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT
WITH PW VALUES DROPPING 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON TO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT COULD HELP TO INITIATE WIDELY SCATTED CONVECTION.
GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THICKNESS VALUES
INCREASE A BIT AS HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE 89 TO 94 RANGE. -BLAES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM MONDAY...

GRADUAL WESTWARD REGRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL LIFT THE
WESTERLIES AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE
MIDWEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE MAKES A SOUTHERLY JOG ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH ENSUING
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A GRADUAL UPTICK IN HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE RIDING WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DUE
TO PROXIMITY WITH THE ACTIVE WESTERLIES ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 90 ACROSS THE NORTH TO 95 IN THE SOUTH AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

OVER THE WEEKEND...DEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES WANDER IN TO INITIATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL THUS MAINTAIN CHANCE (30-40)
POPS...SHADED TOWARDS MAX HEATING EACH DAY...ON SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...MOSTLY IN THE MID
90S...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN PIEDMONT ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. STILL...THE COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE MORE
LIMITED THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND WE WILL OMIT MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE TAFS AND INCLUDE A TEMPO OF SHRA. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS
APPEARS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT SURPRISINGLY GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND DEGREE OF COVERAGE. FOR NOW...
WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO PERIOD BEFORE AND JUST A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE
TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH VFR SKY CONDITIONS LIKELY BY 14Z.
A MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AT AROUND 10KTS OR LESS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
SETTING UP A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE OUTSIDE OF MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK. -BLAES

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION..BLAES




000
FXUS62 KRAH 070111
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
915 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 PM MONDAY...

ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
HAS SHOWN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND SINCE 00Z. THE EXCEPTION IS A BROKEN
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED T-STORMS WHICH EXTEND FROM EAST
OF THOMASVILLE TO NEAR ROXBORO. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION OCCURRING
ALONG A WEAK 850-700MB TROUGH WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT ALOFT
FROM A VORT AXIS LIFTING N-NE ACROSS WESTERN NC. DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF THIS FEATURE INTERACTING WITH THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND LOW
LEVEL (THOUGH WEAK) INSTABILITY...SHOULD SEE ISOLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION PERSIST WEST OF HIGHWAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH A
DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT TO SEE AREAS OF STRATUS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
THOUGH EXPECT IT TO BE RELATIVELY THIN AND BRIEF IN DURATION. MIN
TEMPS 68-73.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM MONDAY...

EXPECT A PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS TO START THE DAY WITH
CLOUDS LIFTING AND INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARRIVING TOWARD MID TO LATE
MORNING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE LIMITED AS
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH SOMEWHAT AND THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT
WITH PW VALUES DROPPING 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON TO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT COULD HELP TO INITIATE WIDELY SCATTED CONVECTION.
GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THICKNESS VALUES
INCREASE A BIT AS HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE 89 TO 94 RANGE. -BLAES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM MONDAY...

GRADUAL WESTWARD REGRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL LIFT THE
WESTERLIES AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE
MIDWEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE MAKES A SOUTHERLY JOG ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH ENSUING
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A GRADUAL UPTICK IN HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE RIDING WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DUE
TO PROXIMITY WITH THE ACTIVE WESTERLIES ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 90 ACROSS THE NORTH TO 95 IN THE SOUTH AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

OVER THE WEEKEND...DEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES WANDER IN TO INITIATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL THUS MAINTAIN CHANCE (30-40)
POPS...SHADED TOWARDS MAX HEATING EACH DAY...ON SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...MOSTLY IN THE MID
90S...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN PIEDMONT ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. STILL...THE COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE MORE
LIMITED THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND WE WILL OMIT MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE TAFS AND INCLUDE A TEMPO OF SHRA. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS
APPEARS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT SURPRISINGLY GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND DEGREE OF COVERAGE. FOR NOW...
WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO PERIOD BEFORE AND JUST A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE
TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH VFR SKY CONDITIONS LIKELY BY 14Z.
A MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AT AROUND 10KTS OR LESS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
SETTING UP A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE OUTSIDE OF MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK. -BLAES

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION..BLAES




000
FXUS62 KRAH 062343
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
743 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MULTIPLE VORTEXES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE LARGER CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EARLY SEEN ON REGIONAL WV
IMAGERY. IT WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN TN AND WESTERN NC AND WAS
TRIGGERING CONVECTION ACROSS WV AND SOUTHWESTERN VA. ANOTHER
VORTEX...THIS ONE LOCATED IN SOUTHERN VA...WAS MORE SHALLOW AND CAN
BE IDENTIFIED IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SO FAR TODAY...MAINLY IN A NORTHEAST-
SOUTHWEST AXIS WHERE ENHANCED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE INVIGORATED. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HINDERING UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...WEAK...
UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW AND MID FLOW SHOULD KEEP STORM UNORGANIZED.
LOCALIZED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE DRIVEN BY SPOKES OF VORTICITY
EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LOW AND IN SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CONVERGENCE
ZONES RESULTING FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM MORNING STRATUS IN
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AS WELL THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE.
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVERGENCE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE A STORM
MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE LARGER CONVECTIVE LINES GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD. MOST OF THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE THE UPPER
TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR STORM LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. BUT A GENERAL DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND BRING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO AN END BY MID
EVENING. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -BLAES
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM MONDAY...

EXPECT A PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS TO START THE DAY WITH
CLOUDS LIFTING AND INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARRIVING TOWARD MID TO LATE
MORNING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE LIMITED AS
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH SOMEWHAT AND THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT
WITH PW VALUES DROPPING 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON TO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT COULD HELP TO INITIATE WIDELY SCATTED CONVECTION.
GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THICKNESS VALUES
INCREASE A BIT AS HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE 89 TO 94 RANGE. -BLAES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM MONDAY...

GRADUAL WESTWARD REGRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL LIFT THE
WESTERLIES AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE
MIDWEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE MAKES A SOUTHERLY JOG ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH ENSUING
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A GRADUAL UPTICK IN HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE RIDING WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DUE
TO PROXIMITY WITH THE ACTIVE WESTERLIES ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 90 ACROSS THE NORTH TO 95 IN THE SOUTH AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

OVER THE WEEKEND...DEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES WANDER IN TO INITIATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL THUS MAINTAIN CHANCE (30-40)
POPS...SHADED TOWARDS MAX HEATING EACH DAY...ON SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...MOSTLY IN THE MID
90S...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATION WITH SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF KINT AND KFAY BUT THESE SHOULD NOT BE AROUND FOR
LONG AS CONDITIONS ARE MUCH MORE STABLE THEN THEY HAVE BEEN IN A
WHILE. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MODELS INDICATE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOW
STRATUS ONCE AGAIN FORMING AFTER 9Z AND MOST LIKELY DISSIPATING JUST
AFTER SUNRISE. OVERALL IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL. MODELS SHOWING MUCH
LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON TUESDAY WHICH MEANS THAT ASIDE FROM ANY
OVERNIGHT RESTRICTIONS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: A LITTLE BIT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN WE HAVE
BEEN UNDER LATELY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ASIDE FROM
DIURNAL CONVECTION...NOT TOO MUCH TO HINDER AVIATION CONDITIONS IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION..ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 061946
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MULTIPLE VORTEXES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE LARGER CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EARLY SEEN ON REGIONAL WV
IMAGERY. IT WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN TN AND WESTERN NC AND WAS
TRIGGERING CONVECTION ACROSS WV AND SOUTHWESTERN VA. ANOTHER
VORTEX...THIS ONE LOCATED IN SOUTHERN VA...WAS MORE SHALLOW AND CAN
BE IDENTIFIED IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SO FAR TODAY...MAINLY IN A NORTHEAST-
SOUTHWEST AXIS WHERE ENHANCED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE INVIGORATED. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HINDERING UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...WEAK...
UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW AND MID FLOW SHOULD KEEP STORM UNORGANIZED.
LOCALIZED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE DRIVEN BY SPOKES OF VORTICITY
EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LOW AND IN SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CONVERGENCE
ZONES RESULTING FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM MORNING STRATUS IN
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AS WELL THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE.
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVERGENCE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE A STORM
MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE LARGER CONVECTIVE LINES GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD. MOST OF THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE THE UPPER
TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR STORM LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. BUT A GENERAL DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND BRING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO AN END BY MID
EVENING. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -BLAES
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM MONDAY...

EXPECT A PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS TO START THE DAY WITH
CLOUDS LIFTING AND INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARRIVING TOWARD MID TO LATE
MORNING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE LIMITED AS
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH SOMEWHAT AND THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT
WITH PW VALUES DROPPING 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON TO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT COULD HELP TO INITIATE WIDELY SCATTED CONVECTION.
GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THICKNESS VALUES
INCREASE A BIT AS HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE 89 TO 94 RANGE. -BLAES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM MONDAY...

GRADUAL WESTWARD REGRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL LIFT THE
WESTERLIES AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE
MIDWEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE MAKES A SOUTHERLY JOG ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH ENSUING
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A GRADUAL UPTICK IN HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE RIDING WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DUE
TO PROXIMITY WITH THE ACTIVE WESTERLIES ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 90 ACROSS THE NORTH TO 95 IN THE SOUTH AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

OVER THE WEEKEND...DEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES WANDER IN TO INITIATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL THUS MAINTAIN CHANCE (30-40)
POPS...SHADED TOWARDS MAX HEATING EACH DAY...ON SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...MOSTLY IN THE MID
90S...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN PIEDMONT ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. STILL...THE COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE MORE
LIMITED THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND WE WILL OMIT MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE TAFS AND INCLUDE A TEMPO OF SHRA. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS
APPEARS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT SURPRISINGLY GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND DEGREE OF COVERAGE. FOR NOW...
WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO PERIOD BEFORE AND JUST A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE
TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH VFR SKY CONDITIONS LIKELY BY 14Z.
A MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AT AROUND 10KTS OR LESS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
SETTING UP A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE OUTSIDE OF MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK. -BLAES

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION..BLAES




000
FXUS62 KRAH 061946
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MULTIPLE VORTEXES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE LARGER CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EARLY SEEN ON REGIONAL WV
IMAGERY. IT WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN TN AND WESTERN NC AND WAS
TRIGGERING CONVECTION ACROSS WV AND SOUTHWESTERN VA. ANOTHER
VORTEX...THIS ONE LOCATED IN SOUTHERN VA...WAS MORE SHALLOW AND CAN
BE IDENTIFIED IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SO FAR TODAY...MAINLY IN A NORTHEAST-
SOUTHWEST AXIS WHERE ENHANCED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE INVIGORATED. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HINDERING UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...WEAK...
UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW AND MID FLOW SHOULD KEEP STORM UNORGANIZED.
LOCALIZED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE DRIVEN BY SPOKES OF VORTICITY
EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LOW AND IN SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CONVERGENCE
ZONES RESULTING FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM MORNING STRATUS IN
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AS WELL THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE.
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVERGENCE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE A STORM
MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE LARGER CONVECTIVE LINES GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD. MOST OF THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE THE UPPER
TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR STORM LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. BUT A GENERAL DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND BRING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO AN END BY MID
EVENING. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -BLAES
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM MONDAY...

EXPECT A PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS TO START THE DAY WITH
CLOUDS LIFTING AND INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE ARRIVING TOWARD MID TO LATE
MORNING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE LIMITED AS
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH SOMEWHAT AND THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT
WITH PW VALUES DROPPING 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON TO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT COULD HELP TO INITIATE WIDELY SCATTED CONVECTION.
GIVEN WEAK FLOW AND GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THICKNESS VALUES
INCREASE A BIT AS HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE 89 TO 94 RANGE. -BLAES

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM MONDAY...

GRADUAL WESTWARD REGRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL LIFT THE
WESTERLIES AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE
MIDWEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE MAKES A SOUTHERLY JOG ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH ENSUING
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A GRADUAL UPTICK IN HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE RIDING WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DUE
TO PROXIMITY WITH THE ACTIVE WESTERLIES ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 90 ACROSS THE NORTH TO 95 IN THE SOUTH AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

OVER THE WEEKEND...DEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES WANDER IN TO INITIATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL THUS MAINTAIN CHANCE (30-40)
POPS...SHADED TOWARDS MAX HEATING EACH DAY...ON SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...MOSTLY IN THE MID
90S...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN PIEDMONT ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. STILL...THE COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE MORE
LIMITED THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND WE WILL OMIT MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE TAFS AND INCLUDE A TEMPO OF SHRA. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS
APPEARS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT SURPRISINGLY GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND DEGREE OF COVERAGE. FOR NOW...
WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO PERIOD BEFORE AND JUST A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE
TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH VFR SKY CONDITIONS LIKELY BY 14Z.
A MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AT AROUND 10KTS OR LESS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
SETTING UP A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE OUTSIDE OF MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK. -BLAES

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION..BLAES





000
FXUS62 KRAH 061914
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH
TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WEST
VIRGINIA LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL BRING A TREND
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MULTIPLE VORTEXES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE LARGER CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EARLY SEEN ON REGIONAL WV
IMAGERY. IT WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN TN AND WESTERN NC AND WAS
TRIGGERING CONVECTION ACROSS WV AND SOUTHWESTERN VA. ANOTHER
VORTEX...THIS ONE LOCATED IN SOUTHERN VA...WAS MORE SHALLOW AND CAN
BE IDENTIFIED IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SO FAR TODAY...MAINLY IN A NORTHEAST-
SOUTHWEST AXIS WHERE ENHANCED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE INVIGORATED. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HINDERING UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...WEAK...
UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW AND MID FLOW SHOULD KEEP STORM UNORGANIZED.
LOCALIZED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE DRIVEN BY SPOKES OF VORTICITY
EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LOW AND IN SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CONVERGENCE
ZONES RESULTING FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM MORNING STRATUS IN
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AS WELL THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE.
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVERGENCE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE A STORM
MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE LARGER CONVECTIVE LINES GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD. MOST OF THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE THE UPPER
TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR STORM LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. BUT A GENERAL DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND BRING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO AN END BY MID
EVENING. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -BLAES
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY ISOLATED TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW SHEARS TO OUR NORTH AND JUST A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH
REMAINS AMIDST RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW A VERY
SHALLOW UPPER SHEAR LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...ABOVE 500 MB...DRIFTING
OVERHEAD...BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LOW FOR THIS FEATURE TO
TRIGGER MUCH CONVECTION.  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...WITH HIGHS COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER
90S.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 69-73 RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM MONDAY...

GRADUAL WESTWARD REGRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL LIFT THE
WESTERLIES AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE
MIDWEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE MAKES A SOUTHERLY JOG ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH ENSUING
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A GRADUAL UPTICK IN HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE RIDING WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DUE
TO PROXIMITY WITH THE ACTIVE WESTERLIES ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 90 ACROSS THE NORTH TO 95 IN THE SOUTH AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

OVER THE WEEKEND...DEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES WANDER IN TO INITIATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL THUS MAINTAIN CHANCE (30-40)
POPS...SHADED TOWARDS MAX HEATING EACH DAY...ON SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...MOSTLY IN THE MID
90S...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN PIEDMONT ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. STILL...THE COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE MORE
LIMITED THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND WE WILL OMIT MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE TAFS AND INCLUDE A TEMPO OF SHRA. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS
APPEARS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT SURPRISINGLY GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND DEGREE OF COVERAGE. FOR NOW...
WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO PERIOD BEFORE AND JUST A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE
TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH VFR SKY CONDITIONS LIKELY BY 14Z.
A MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AT AROUND 10KTS OR LESS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
SETTING UP A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE OUTSIDE OF MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK. -BLAES

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD/22
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION..BLAES





000
FXUS62 KRAH 061914
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH
TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WEST
VIRGINIA LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL BRING A TREND
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MULTIPLE VORTEXES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE LARGER CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EARLY SEEN ON REGIONAL WV
IMAGERY. IT WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN TN AND WESTERN NC AND WAS
TRIGGERING CONVECTION ACROSS WV AND SOUTHWESTERN VA. ANOTHER
VORTEX...THIS ONE LOCATED IN SOUTHERN VA...WAS MORE SHALLOW AND CAN
BE IDENTIFIED IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SO FAR TODAY...MAINLY IN A NORTHEAST-
SOUTHWEST AXIS WHERE ENHANCED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE INVIGORATED. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HINDERING UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...WEAK...
UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW AND MID FLOW SHOULD KEEP STORM UNORGANIZED.
LOCALIZED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE DRIVEN BY SPOKES OF VORTICITY
EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LOW AND IN SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CONVERGENCE
ZONES RESULTING FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM MORNING STRATUS IN
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AS WELL THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE.
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVERGENCE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE A STORM
MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE LARGER CONVECTIVE LINES GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD. MOST OF THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE THE UPPER
TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR STORM LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. BUT A GENERAL DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND BRING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO AN END BY MID
EVENING. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -BLAES
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY ISOLATED TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW SHEARS TO OUR NORTH AND JUST A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH
REMAINS AMIDST RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW A VERY
SHALLOW UPPER SHEAR LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...ABOVE 500 MB...DRIFTING
OVERHEAD...BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LOW FOR THIS FEATURE TO
TRIGGER MUCH CONVECTION.  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...WITH HIGHS COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER
90S.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 69-73 RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM MONDAY...

GRADUAL WESTWARD REGRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL LIFT THE
WESTERLIES AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE
MIDWEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE MAKES A SOUTHERLY JOG ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH ENSUING
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A GRADUAL UPTICK IN HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE RIDING WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DUE
TO PROXIMITY WITH THE ACTIVE WESTERLIES ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 90 ACROSS THE NORTH TO 95 IN THE SOUTH AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

OVER THE WEEKEND...DEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES WANDER IN TO INITIATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL THUS MAINTAIN CHANCE (30-40)
POPS...SHADED TOWARDS MAX HEATING EACH DAY...ON SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...MOSTLY IN THE MID
90S...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN PIEDMONT ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. STILL...THE COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE MORE
LIMITED THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND WE WILL OMIT MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE TAFS AND INCLUDE A TEMPO OF SHRA. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS
APPEARS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT SURPRISINGLY GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND DEGREE OF COVERAGE. FOR NOW...
WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO PERIOD BEFORE AND JUST A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE
TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH VFR SKY CONDITIONS LIKELY BY 14Z.
A MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AT AROUND 10KTS OR LESS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
SETTING UP A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE OUTSIDE OF MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK. -BLAES

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD/22
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION..BLAES




000
FXUS62 KRAH 061914
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH
TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WEST
VIRGINIA LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL BRING A TREND
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MULTIPLE VORTEXES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE LARGER CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EARLY SEEN ON REGIONAL WV
IMAGERY. IT WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN TN AND WESTERN NC AND WAS
TRIGGERING CONVECTION ACROSS WV AND SOUTHWESTERN VA. ANOTHER
VORTEX...THIS ONE LOCATED IN SOUTHERN VA...WAS MORE SHALLOW AND CAN
BE IDENTIFIED IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SO FAR TODAY...MAINLY IN A NORTHEAST-
SOUTHWEST AXIS WHERE ENHANCED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE INVIGORATED. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HINDERING UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...WEAK...
UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW AND MID FLOW SHOULD KEEP STORM UNORGANIZED.
LOCALIZED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE DRIVEN BY SPOKES OF VORTICITY
EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LOW AND IN SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CONVERGENCE
ZONES RESULTING FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM MORNING STRATUS IN
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AS WELL THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE.
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVERGENCE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE A STORM
MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE LARGER CONVECTIVE LINES GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD. MOST OF THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE THE UPPER
TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR STORM LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. BUT A GENERAL DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND BRING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO AN END BY MID
EVENING. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -BLAES
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY ISOLATED TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW SHEARS TO OUR NORTH AND JUST A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH
REMAINS AMIDST RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW A VERY
SHALLOW UPPER SHEAR LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...ABOVE 500 MB...DRIFTING
OVERHEAD...BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LOW FOR THIS FEATURE TO
TRIGGER MUCH CONVECTION.  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...WITH HIGHS COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER
90S.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 69-73 RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM MONDAY...

GRADUAL WESTWARD REGRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL LIFT THE
WESTERLIES AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE
MIDWEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE MAKES A SOUTHERLY JOG ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH ENSUING
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A GRADUAL UPTICK IN HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE RIDING WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DUE
TO PROXIMITY WITH THE ACTIVE WESTERLIES ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 90 ACROSS THE NORTH TO 95 IN THE SOUTH AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

OVER THE WEEKEND...DEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES WANDER IN TO INITIATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL THUS MAINTAIN CHANCE (30-40)
POPS...SHADED TOWARDS MAX HEATING EACH DAY...ON SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...MOSTLY IN THE MID
90S...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN PIEDMONT ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. STILL...THE COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE MORE
LIMITED THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND WE WILL OMIT MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE TAFS AND INCLUDE A TEMPO OF SHRA. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS
APPEARS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT SURPRISINGLY GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND DEGREE OF COVERAGE. FOR NOW...
WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO PERIOD BEFORE AND JUST A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE
TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH VFR SKY CONDITIONS LIKELY BY 14Z.
A MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AT AROUND 10KTS OR LESS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
SETTING UP A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE OUTSIDE OF MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK. -BLAES

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD/22
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION..BLAES





000
FXUS62 KRAH 061914
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH
TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WEST
VIRGINIA LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL BRING A TREND
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MULTIPLE VORTEXES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE LARGER CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EARLY SEEN ON REGIONAL WV
IMAGERY. IT WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN TN AND WESTERN NC AND WAS
TRIGGERING CONVECTION ACROSS WV AND SOUTHWESTERN VA. ANOTHER
VORTEX...THIS ONE LOCATED IN SOUTHERN VA...WAS MORE SHALLOW AND CAN
BE IDENTIFIED IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SO FAR TODAY...MAINLY IN A NORTHEAST-
SOUTHWEST AXIS WHERE ENHANCED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE INVIGORATED. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HINDERING UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...WEAK...
UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW AND MID FLOW SHOULD KEEP STORM UNORGANIZED.
LOCALIZED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE DRIVEN BY SPOKES OF VORTICITY
EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LOW AND IN SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CONVERGENCE
ZONES RESULTING FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING FROM MORNING STRATUS IN
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AS WELL THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE.
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVERGENCE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE A STORM
MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE LARGER CONVECTIVE LINES GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD. MOST OF THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH SUNSET BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE THE UPPER
TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SHOWER OR STORM LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. BUT A GENERAL DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND BRING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO AN END BY MID
EVENING. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -BLAES
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY ISOLATED TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW SHEARS TO OUR NORTH AND JUST A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH
REMAINS AMIDST RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW A VERY
SHALLOW UPPER SHEAR LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...ABOVE 500 MB...DRIFTING
OVERHEAD...BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LOW FOR THIS FEATURE TO
TRIGGER MUCH CONVECTION.  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...WITH HIGHS COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER
90S.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 69-73 RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM MONDAY...

GRADUAL WESTWARD REGRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL LIFT THE
WESTERLIES AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE
MIDWEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE MAKES A SOUTHERLY JOG ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH ENSUING
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A GRADUAL UPTICK IN HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE RIDING WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DUE
TO PROXIMITY WITH THE ACTIVE WESTERLIES ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 90 ACROSS THE NORTH TO 95 IN THE SOUTH AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

OVER THE WEEKEND...DEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES WANDER IN TO INITIATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL THUS MAINTAIN CHANCE (30-40)
POPS...SHADED TOWARDS MAX HEATING EACH DAY...ON SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...MOSTLY IN THE MID
90S...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN PIEDMONT ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. STILL...THE COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE MORE
LIMITED THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND WE WILL OMIT MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE TAFS AND INCLUDE A TEMPO OF SHRA. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS
APPEARS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT SURPRISINGLY GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND DEGREE OF COVERAGE. FOR NOW...
WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO PERIOD BEFORE AND JUST A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE
TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH VFR SKY CONDITIONS LIKELY BY 14Z.
A MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AT AROUND 10KTS OR LESS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
SETTING UP A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE OUTSIDE OF MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK. -BLAES

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD/22
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION..BLAES




000
FXUS62 KRAH 061851
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH
TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WEST
VIRGINIA LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL BRING A TREND
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM MONDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL VORTEX CENTERED IN
SOUTHWEST VA LIFTING NORTHEAST. MORNING STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL NC
HAS DISSIPATED AND THE INITIATION OF CUMULIFORM CLOUDINESS IS
UNDERWAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND TRIAD
AREA ARE IN RESPONSE TO DPVA AND ARE LIFTING AWAY FROM THE TRIAD.
SCT CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION INCREASES AND LOCALIZED FORCING FOR ASCENT IS DRIVEN
BY SPOKES OF VORTICITY EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LOW AND IN
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CONVERGENCE ZONES RESULTING FROM DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING FROM MORNING STRATUS IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE LARGER
CONVECTIVE LINES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE 86 TO 92 RANGE LOOK GREAT.

CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET BUT GIVEN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A FEW STORMS LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BUT A GENERAL DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND BRING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO AN END LATE. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. BLAES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY ISOLATED TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW SHEARS TO OUR NORTH AND JUST A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH
REMAINS AMIDST RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW A VERY
SHALLOW UPPER SHEAR LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...ABOVE 500 MB...DRIFTING
OVERHEAD...BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LOW FOR THIS FEATURE TO
TRIGGER MUCH CONVECTION.  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...WITH HIGHS COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER
90S.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 69-73 RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM MONDAY...

GRADUAL WESTWARD REGRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL LIFT THE
WESTERLIES AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE
MIDWEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE MAKES A SOUTHERLY JOG ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH ENSUING
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A GRADUAL UPTICK IN HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE RIDING WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DUE
TO PROXIMITY WITH THE ACTIVE WESTERLIES ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 90 ACROSS THE NORTH TO 95 IN THE SOUTH AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

OVER THE WEEKEND...DEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES WANDER IN TO INITIATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL THUS MAINTAIN CHANCE (30-40)
POPS...SHADED TOWARDS MAX HEATING EACH DAY...ON SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...MOSTLY IN THE MID
90S...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN PIEDMONT ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. STILL...THE COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE MORE
LIMITED THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND WE WILL OMIT MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE TAFS AND INCLUDE A TEMPO OF SHRA. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS
APPEARS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT SURPRISINGLY GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND DEGREE OF COVERAGE. FOR NOW...
WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO PERIOD BEFORE AND JUST A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE
TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH VFR SKY CONDITIONS LIKELY BY 14Z.
A MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AT AROUND 10KTS OR LESS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
SETTING UP A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE OUTSIDE OF MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK. -BLAES

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD/22
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION..BLAES




000
FXUS62 KRAH 061851
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH
TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WEST
VIRGINIA LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL BRING A TREND
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM MONDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL VORTEX CENTERED IN
SOUTHWEST VA LIFTING NORTHEAST. MORNING STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL NC
HAS DISSIPATED AND THE INITIATION OF CUMULIFORM CLOUDINESS IS
UNDERWAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND TRIAD
AREA ARE IN RESPONSE TO DPVA AND ARE LIFTING AWAY FROM THE TRIAD.
SCT CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION INCREASES AND LOCALIZED FORCING FOR ASCENT IS DRIVEN
BY SPOKES OF VORTICITY EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LOW AND IN
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CONVERGENCE ZONES RESULTING FROM DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING FROM MORNING STRATUS IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE LARGER
CONVECTIVE LINES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE 86 TO 92 RANGE LOOK GREAT.

CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET BUT GIVEN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A FEW STORMS LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BUT A GENERAL DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND BRING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO AN END LATE. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. BLAES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY ISOLATED TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW SHEARS TO OUR NORTH AND JUST A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH
REMAINS AMIDST RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW A VERY
SHALLOW UPPER SHEAR LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...ABOVE 500 MB...DRIFTING
OVERHEAD...BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LOW FOR THIS FEATURE TO
TRIGGER MUCH CONVECTION.  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...WITH HIGHS COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER
90S.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 69-73 RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM MONDAY...

GRADUAL WESTWARD REGRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL LIFT THE
WESTERLIES AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE
MIDWEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE MAKES A SOUTHERLY JOG ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH ENSUING
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A GRADUAL UPTICK IN HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE RIDING WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DUE
TO PROXIMITY WITH THE ACTIVE WESTERLIES ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 90 ACROSS THE NORTH TO 95 IN THE SOUTH AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

OVER THE WEEKEND...DEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES WANDER IN TO INITIATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL THUS MAINTAIN CHANCE (30-40)
POPS...SHADED TOWARDS MAX HEATING EACH DAY...ON SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...MOSTLY IN THE MID
90S...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN PIEDMONT ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. STILL...THE COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE MORE
LIMITED THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND WE WILL OMIT MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE TAFS AND INCLUDE A TEMPO OF SHRA. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS
APPEARS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT SURPRISINGLY GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND DEGREE OF COVERAGE. FOR NOW...
WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO PERIOD BEFORE AND JUST A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE
TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH VFR SKY CONDITIONS LIKELY BY 14Z.
A MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AT AROUND 10KTS OR LESS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
SETTING UP A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE OUTSIDE OF MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK. -BLAES

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD/22
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION..BLAES





000
FXUS62 KRAH 061851
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH
TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WEST
VIRGINIA LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL BRING A TREND
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM MONDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL VORTEX CENTERED IN
SOUTHWEST VA LIFTING NORTHEAST. MORNING STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL NC
HAS DISSIPATED AND THE INITIATION OF CUMULIFORM CLOUDINESS IS
UNDERWAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND TRIAD
AREA ARE IN RESPONSE TO DPVA AND ARE LIFTING AWAY FROM THE TRIAD.
SCT CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION INCREASES AND LOCALIZED FORCING FOR ASCENT IS DRIVEN
BY SPOKES OF VORTICITY EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LOW AND IN
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CONVERGENCE ZONES RESULTING FROM DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING FROM MORNING STRATUS IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE LARGER
CONVECTIVE LINES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE 86 TO 92 RANGE LOOK GREAT.

CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET BUT GIVEN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A FEW STORMS LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BUT A GENERAL DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND BRING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO AN END LATE. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. BLAES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY ISOLATED TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW SHEARS TO OUR NORTH AND JUST A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH
REMAINS AMIDST RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW A VERY
SHALLOW UPPER SHEAR LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...ABOVE 500 MB...DRIFTING
OVERHEAD...BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LOW FOR THIS FEATURE TO
TRIGGER MUCH CONVECTION.  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...WITH HIGHS COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER
90S.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 69-73 RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM MONDAY...

GRADUAL WESTWARD REGRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL LIFT THE
WESTERLIES AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE
MIDWEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE MAKES A SOUTHERLY JOG ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH ENSUING
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A GRADUAL UPTICK IN HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE RIDING WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DUE
TO PROXIMITY WITH THE ACTIVE WESTERLIES ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 90 ACROSS THE NORTH TO 95 IN THE SOUTH AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

OVER THE WEEKEND...DEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES WANDER IN TO INITIATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL THUS MAINTAIN CHANCE (30-40)
POPS...SHADED TOWARDS MAX HEATING EACH DAY...ON SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...MOSTLY IN THE MID
90S...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN PIEDMONT ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. STILL...THE COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE MORE
LIMITED THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND WE WILL OMIT MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THE TAFS AND INCLUDE A TEMPO OF SHRA. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS
APPEARS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT SURPRISINGLY GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE PREFERRED LOCATION AND DEGREE OF COVERAGE. FOR NOW...
WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO PERIOD BEFORE AND JUST A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE
TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH VFR SKY CONDITIONS LIKELY BY 14Z.
A MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AT AROUND 10KTS OR LESS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
SETTING UP A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE OUTSIDE OF MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK. -BLAES

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD/22
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION..BLAES




000
FXUS62 KRAH 061753
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
150 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH
TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WEST
VIRGINIA LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL BRING A TREND
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM MONDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL VORTEX CENTERED IN
SOUTHWEST VA LIFTING NORTHEAST. MORNING STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL NC
HAS DISSIPATED AND THE INITIATION OF CUMULIFORM CLOUDINESS IS
UNDERWAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND TRIAD
AREA ARE IN RESPONSE TO DPVA AND ARE LIFTING AWAY FROM THE TRIAD.
SCT CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION INCREASES AND LOCALIZED FORCING FOR ASCENT IS DRIVEN
BY SPOKES OF VORTICITY EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LOW AND IN
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CONVERGENCE ZONES RESULTING FROM DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING FROM MORNING STRATUS IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE LARGER
CONVECTIVE LINES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE 86 TO 92 RANGE LOOK GREAT.

CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET BUT GIVEN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A FEW STORMS LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BUT A GENERAL DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND BRING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO AN END LATE. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. BLAES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY ISOLATED TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW SHEARS TO OUR NORTH AND JUST A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH
REMAINS AMIDST RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW A VERY
SHALLOW UPPER SHEAR LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...ABOVE 500 MB...DRIFTING
OVERHEAD...BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LOW FOR THIS FEATURE TO
TRIGGER MUCH CONVECTION.  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...WITH HIGHS COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER
90S.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 69-73 RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM MONDAY...

GRADUAL WESTWARD REGRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL LIFT THE
WESTERLIES AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE
MIDWEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE MAKES A SOUTHERLY JOG ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH ENSUING
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A GRADUAL UPTICK IN HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE RIDING WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DUE
TO PROXIMITY WITH THE ACTIVE WESTERLIES ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 90 ACROSS THE NORTH TO 95 IN THE SOUTH AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

OVER THE WEEKEND...DEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES WANDER IN TO INITIATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL THUS MAINTAIN CHANCE (30-40)
POPS...SHADED TOWARDS MAX HEATING EACH DAY...ON SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...MOSTLY IN THE MID
90S...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM MONDAY...

A COUPLE AREAS OF IFR STRATUS...ONE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND
IMPACTING KGSO/KINT...AND THE OTHER OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IMPACTING
KRWI...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BY 12-13Z AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BY 15Z.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILIGS IS STILL POSSIBLE AT KRDU AND
KFAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS THEY MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST.  WHILE A THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AT EASTERN
TERMINALS...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PIN DOWN A SMALL TIME
FRAME...SO VCSH WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT TAF.  ALL ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO END BY 00-03Z AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST US THIS
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON STORMS TO MAINLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATE THIS WEEK.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD/22
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION..22





000
FXUS62 KRAH 061753
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
150 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH
TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WEST
VIRGINIA LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL BRING A TREND
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM MONDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL VORTEX CENTERED IN
SOUTHWEST VA LIFTING NORTHEAST. MORNING STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL NC
HAS DISSIPATED AND THE INITIATION OF CUMULIFORM CLOUDINESS IS
UNDERWAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND TRIAD
AREA ARE IN RESPONSE TO DPVA AND ARE LIFTING AWAY FROM THE TRIAD.
SCT CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION INCREASES AND LOCALIZED FORCING FOR ASCENT IS DRIVEN
BY SPOKES OF VORTICITY EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LOW AND IN
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CONVERGENCE ZONES RESULTING FROM DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING FROM MORNING STRATUS IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE LARGER
CONVECTIVE LINES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE 86 TO 92 RANGE LOOK GREAT.

CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET BUT GIVEN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A FEW STORMS LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BUT A GENERAL DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND BRING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO AN END LATE. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. BLAES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY ISOLATED TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW SHEARS TO OUR NORTH AND JUST A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH
REMAINS AMIDST RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW A VERY
SHALLOW UPPER SHEAR LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...ABOVE 500 MB...DRIFTING
OVERHEAD...BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LOW FOR THIS FEATURE TO
TRIGGER MUCH CONVECTION.  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...WITH HIGHS COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER
90S.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 69-73 RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM MONDAY...

GRADUAL WESTWARD REGRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL LIFT THE
WESTERLIES AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE
MIDWEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE MAKES A SOUTHERLY JOG ON FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH ENSUING
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A GRADUAL UPTICK IN HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE RIDING WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DUE
TO PROXIMITY WITH THE ACTIVE WESTERLIES ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 90 ACROSS THE NORTH TO 95 IN THE SOUTH AFTER
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

OVER THE WEEKEND...DEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM MESOSCALE DISTURBANCES WANDER IN TO INITIATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WILL THUS MAINTAIN CHANCE (30-40)
POPS...SHADED TOWARDS MAX HEATING EACH DAY...ON SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER...MOSTLY IN THE MID
90S...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM MONDAY...

A COUPLE AREAS OF IFR STRATUS...ONE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND
IMPACTING KGSO/KINT...AND THE OTHER OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IMPACTING
KRWI...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BY 12-13Z AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BY 15Z.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILIGS IS STILL POSSIBLE AT KRDU AND
KFAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS THEY MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST.  WHILE A THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AT EASTERN
TERMINALS...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PIN DOWN A SMALL TIME
FRAME...SO VCSH WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT TAF.  ALL ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO END BY 00-03Z AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST US THIS
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON STORMS TO MAINLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATE THIS WEEK.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD/22
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION..22




000
FXUS62 KRAH 061523
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1120 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH
TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WEST
VIRGINIA LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL BRING A TREND
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM MONDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL VORTEX CENTERED IN
SOUTHWEST VA LIFTING NORTHEAST. MORNING STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL NC
HAS DISSIPATED AND THE INITIATION OF CUMULIFORM CLOUDINESS IS
UNDERWAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND TRIAD
AREA ARE IN RESPONSE TO DPVA AND ARE LIFTING AWAY FROM THE TRIAD.
SCT CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION INCREASES AND LOCALIZED FORCING FOR ASCENT IS DRIVEN
BY SPOKES OF VORTICITY EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LOW AND IN
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CONVERGENCE ZONES RESULTING FROM DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING FROM MORNING STRATUS IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE LARGER
CONVECTIVE LINES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE 86 TO 92 RANGE LOOK GREAT.

CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET BUT GIVEN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A FEW STORMS LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BUT A GENERAL DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND BRING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO AN END LATE. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. BLAES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY ISOLATED TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW SHEARS TO OUR NORTH AND JUST A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH
REMAINS AMIDST RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW A VERY
SHALLOW UPPER SHEAR LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...ABOVE 500 MB...DRIFTING
OVERHEAD...BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LOW FOR THIS FEATURE TO
TRIGGER MUCH CONVECTION.  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...WITH HIGHS COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER
90S.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 69-73 RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

WED-FRI: WITH THE DEPARTURE OF TODAY`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NE BY WED MORNING... MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES MID-LATE WEEK.
THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GEFS MEAN ALL DEPICT THIS EXPANSIVE
FEATURE STRETCHING FROM TX/OK TO OFF THE SE COAST... AND THEY AGREE
ON A SLOW RETROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS WITH
TIME. HOWEVER... THEY DIFFER A BIT REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
CENTERPOINT OF THIS RIDGE... WITH THE CANADIAN CENTERED OVER THE FAR
SRN APPALACHIANS BY FRI... A POSITION BETWEEN THE MORE EASTERLY GFS
AND MORE WESTERLY ECMWF. BUT REGARDLESS OF THE SPECIFICS... THIS
RIDGE WILL SERVE TO SUPPRESS THE WESTERLIES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
WILL STEADILY PUSH UP LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...
FROM AROUND 5 M ABOVE NORMAL WED TO AS MUCH AS 10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL
FRI. GIVEN THAT WE`RE APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY HOTTEST TIME
OF THE YEAR... IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO PUSH UP TEMP/HUMIDITY TO
UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER 90S WED WARMING TO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S BY FRI...
WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 70 TO MID 70S... A SLIGHT UPWARD BUMP FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. DESPITE THE WARM SURFACE TEMPS... DEEP
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LOW SHEAR ALONG WITH PW VALUES NEAR TO JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL LIMIT CONVECTION COVERAGE. EXPECT
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WED-FRI TO BE JUST UNDER CLIMATOLOGY (15-30%)
AND LARGELY CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEAST... ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA
BREEZE... AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTH... NEAR THE DECAYING SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED ACROSS VA.

SAT-SUN: THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED
WESTWARD TO TX/OK BY THE WEEKEND... AND THE RESULTING NW FLOW OVER
NC WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP ESE ACROSS NRN AND ERN NC.
ONE PRONOUNCED WAVE IN PARTICULAR SKIRTS ACROSS VA AND FAR NE NC
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF. AND WITH THE
RIDGE CENTER LIKELY TO CONTINUE A WESTWARD DRIFT TO NM/FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY SUN... ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES APPEAR LIKELY TO CROSS
VA/NC SUN AS WELL. CLOUDS AND BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE MAY TRIM A
COUPLE DEGREES OFF HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS OUR NORTH AND
EAST... BUT IT SHOULD STILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE-NORMAL THICKNESSES YIELDING HIGHS OF 90-95... HOTTEST IN THE
SW CWA. WITH THE UPTICK IN DYNAMIC FORCING AND SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR... WILL NUDGE UP POPS TO 20-40%... MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH/EAST. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM MONDAY...

A COUPLE AREAS OF IFR STRATUS...ONE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND
IMPACTING KGSO/KINT...AND THE OTHER OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IMPACTING
KRWI...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BY 12-13Z AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BY 15Z.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILIGS IS STILL POSSIBLE AT KRDU AND
KFAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS THEY MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST.  WHILE A THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AT EASTERN
TERMINALS...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PIN DOWN A SMALL TIME
FRAME...SO VCSH WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT TAF.  ALL ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO END BY 00-03Z AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST US THIS
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON STORMS TO MAINLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATE THIS WEEK.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD/22
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION..22





000
FXUS62 KRAH 061523
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1120 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH
TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WEST
VIRGINIA LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL BRING A TREND
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM MONDAY...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL VORTEX CENTERED IN
SOUTHWEST VA LIFTING NORTHEAST. MORNING STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL NC
HAS DISSIPATED AND THE INITIATION OF CUMULIFORM CLOUDINESS IS
UNDERWAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND TRIAD
AREA ARE IN RESPONSE TO DPVA AND ARE LIFTING AWAY FROM THE TRIAD.
SCT CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION INCREASES AND LOCALIZED FORCING FOR ASCENT IS DRIVEN
BY SPOKES OF VORTICITY EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LOW AND IN
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST CONVERGENCE ZONES RESULTING FROM DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING FROM MORNING STRATUS IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE
CONVECTION WILL HAVE A STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE LARGER
CONVECTIVE LINES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE 86 TO 92 RANGE LOOK GREAT.

CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH WITH SUNSET BUT GIVEN
THE PROXIMITY OF THE THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A FEW STORMS LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. BUT A GENERAL DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND BRING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO AN END LATE. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. BLAES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY ISOLATED TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW SHEARS TO OUR NORTH AND JUST A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH
REMAINS AMIDST RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW A VERY
SHALLOW UPPER SHEAR LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...ABOVE 500 MB...DRIFTING
OVERHEAD...BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LOW FOR THIS FEATURE TO
TRIGGER MUCH CONVECTION.  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...WITH HIGHS COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER
90S.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 69-73 RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

WED-FRI: WITH THE DEPARTURE OF TODAY`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NE BY WED MORNING... MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES MID-LATE WEEK.
THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GEFS MEAN ALL DEPICT THIS EXPANSIVE
FEATURE STRETCHING FROM TX/OK TO OFF THE SE COAST... AND THEY AGREE
ON A SLOW RETROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS WITH
TIME. HOWEVER... THEY DIFFER A BIT REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
CENTERPOINT OF THIS RIDGE... WITH THE CANADIAN CENTERED OVER THE FAR
SRN APPALACHIANS BY FRI... A POSITION BETWEEN THE MORE EASTERLY GFS
AND MORE WESTERLY ECMWF. BUT REGARDLESS OF THE SPECIFICS... THIS
RIDGE WILL SERVE TO SUPPRESS THE WESTERLIES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
WILL STEADILY PUSH UP LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...
FROM AROUND 5 M ABOVE NORMAL WED TO AS MUCH AS 10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL
FRI. GIVEN THAT WE`RE APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY HOTTEST TIME
OF THE YEAR... IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO PUSH UP TEMP/HUMIDITY TO
UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER 90S WED WARMING TO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S BY FRI...
WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 70 TO MID 70S... A SLIGHT UPWARD BUMP FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. DESPITE THE WARM SURFACE TEMPS... DEEP
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LOW SHEAR ALONG WITH PW VALUES NEAR TO JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL LIMIT CONVECTION COVERAGE. EXPECT
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WED-FRI TO BE JUST UNDER CLIMATOLOGY (15-30%)
AND LARGELY CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEAST... ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA
BREEZE... AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTH... NEAR THE DECAYING SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED ACROSS VA.

SAT-SUN: THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED
WESTWARD TO TX/OK BY THE WEEKEND... AND THE RESULTING NW FLOW OVER
NC WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP ESE ACROSS NRN AND ERN NC.
ONE PRONOUNCED WAVE IN PARTICULAR SKIRTS ACROSS VA AND FAR NE NC
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF. AND WITH THE
RIDGE CENTER LIKELY TO CONTINUE A WESTWARD DRIFT TO NM/FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY SUN... ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES APPEAR LIKELY TO CROSS
VA/NC SUN AS WELL. CLOUDS AND BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE MAY TRIM A
COUPLE DEGREES OFF HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS OUR NORTH AND
EAST... BUT IT SHOULD STILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE-NORMAL THICKNESSES YIELDING HIGHS OF 90-95... HOTTEST IN THE
SW CWA. WITH THE UPTICK IN DYNAMIC FORCING AND SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR... WILL NUDGE UP POPS TO 20-40%... MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH/EAST. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM MONDAY...

A COUPLE AREAS OF IFR STRATUS...ONE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND
IMPACTING KGSO/KINT...AND THE OTHER OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IMPACTING
KRWI...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BY 12-13Z AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BY 15Z.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILIGS IS STILL POSSIBLE AT KRDU AND
KFAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS THEY MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST.  WHILE A THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AT EASTERN
TERMINALS...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PIN DOWN A SMALL TIME
FRAME...SO VCSH WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT TAF.  ALL ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO END BY 00-03Z AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST US THIS
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON STORMS TO MAINLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATE THIS WEEK.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD/22
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION..22




000
FXUS62 KRAH 061057
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH
TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WEST
VIRGINIA LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL BRING A TREND
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY SHEARING UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA.  A FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND ALONG
THE NV/VA BORDER THEN DIPS INTO NORTHEAST NC.  ALL CONVECTION HAS
DEPARTED TO THE NORTHEAST AND A RIBBON OF STRATUS IS SLOWLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT...PER 11-9.3
MICRON IMAGERY.  IT APPEARS STRATUS WILL MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS
BETWEEN THE YADKIN/PEE-DEE ROVER AND US HWY 1...AND WILL BURN OFF
BY MID-MORNING.  MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
WELL INTO VA...LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT.  THE
TROUGH SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION UNDER
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH DRIER 925MB AND
MIXING APPEAR TO LIMIT FORECAST  INSTABILITY TO ONLY AROUND 1000
J/KG.  BULK SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 20KT...SO ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH INCREASING DCAPE COULD STILL ENHANCE WIND
GUSTS FROM A FEW STORMS.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NORTHWEST TO LOWS
90S SOUTHEAST.

ONE LAST SPOKE OF VORTICITY ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW COULD TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA....BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE VOID OF ANY CONVECTION AS THE
AIRMASS DRIES A BIT AND PW DROPS BELOW 1.5".  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S UNDER DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY ISOLATED TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW SHEARS TO OUR NORTH AND JUST A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH
REMAINS AMIDST RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW A VERY
SHALLOW UPPER SHEAR LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...ABOVE 500 MB...DRIFTING
OVERHEAD...BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LOW FOR THIS FEATURE TO
TRIGGER MUCH CONVECTION.  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...WITH HIGHS COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER
90S.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 69-73 RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

WED-FRI: WITH THE DEPARTURE OF TODAY`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NE BY WED MORNING... MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES MID-LATE WEEK.
THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GEFS MEAN ALL DEPICT THIS EXPANSIVE
FEATURE STRETCHING FROM TX/OK TO OFF THE SE COAST... AND THEY AGREE
ON A SLOW RETROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS WITH
TIME. HOWEVER... THEY DIFFER A BIT REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
CENTERPOINT OF THIS RIDGE... WITH THE CANADIAN CENTERED OVER THE FAR
SRN APPALACHIANS BY FRI... A POSITION BETWEEN THE MORE EASTERLY GFS
AND MORE WESTERLY ECMWF. BUT REGARDLESS OF THE SPECIFICS... THIS
RIDGE WILL SERVE TO SUPPRESS THE WESTERLIES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
WILL STEADILY PUSH UP LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...
FROM AROUND 5 M ABOVE NORMAL WED TO AS MUCH AS 10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL
FRI. GIVEN THAT WE`RE APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY HOTTEST TIME
OF THE YEAR... IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO PUSH UP TEMP/HUMIDITY TO
UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER 90S WED WARMING TO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S BY FRI...
WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 70 TO MID 70S... A SLIGHT UPWARD BUMP FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. DESPITE THE WARM SURFACE TEMPS... DEEP
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LOW SHEAR ALONG WITH PW VALUES NEAR TO JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL LIMIT CONVECTION COVERAGE. EXPECT
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WED-FRI TO BE JUST UNDER CLIMATOLOGY (15-30%)
AND LARGELY CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEAST... ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA
BREEZE... AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTH... NEAR THE DECAYING SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED ACROSS VA.

SAT-SUN: THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED
WESTWARD TO TX/OK BY THE WEEKEND... AND THE RESULTING NW FLOW OVER
NC WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP ESE ACROSS NRN AND ERN NC.
ONE PRONOUNCED WAVE IN PARTICULAR SKIRTS ACROSS VA AND FAR NE NC
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF. AND WITH THE
RIDGE CENTER LIKELY TO CONTINUE A WESTWARD DRIFT TO NM/FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY SUN... ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES APPEAR LIKELY TO CROSS
VA/NC SUN AS WELL. CLOUDS AND BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE MAY TRIM A
COUPLE DEGREES OFF HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS OUR NORTH AND
EAST... BUT IT SHOULD STILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE-NORMAL THICKNESSES YIELDING HIGHS OF 90-95... HOTTEST IN THE
SW CWA. WITH THE UPTICK IN DYNAMIC FORCING AND SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR... WILL NUDGE UP POPS TO 20-40%... MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH/EAST. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM MONDAY...

A COUPLE AREAS OF IFR STRATUS...ONE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND
IMPACTING KGSO/KINT...AND THE OTHER OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IMPACTING
KRWI...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BY 12-13Z AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BY 15Z.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILIGS IS STILL POSSIBLE AT KRDU AND
KFAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS THEY MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST.  WHILE A THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AT EASTERN
TERMINALS...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PIN DOWN A SMALL TIME
FRAME...SO VCSH WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT TAF.  ALL ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO END BY 00-03Z AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST US THIS
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON STORMS TO MAINLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATE THIS WEEK.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD/22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION..22




000
FXUS62 KRAH 061057
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH
TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WEST
VIRGINIA LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL BRING A TREND
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY SHEARING UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA.  A FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND ALONG
THE NV/VA BORDER THEN DIPS INTO NORTHEAST NC.  ALL CONVECTION HAS
DEPARTED TO THE NORTHEAST AND A RIBBON OF STRATUS IS SLOWLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT...PER 11-9.3
MICRON IMAGERY.  IT APPEARS STRATUS WILL MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS
BETWEEN THE YADKIN/PEE-DEE ROVER AND US HWY 1...AND WILL BURN OFF
BY MID-MORNING.  MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
WELL INTO VA...LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT.  THE
TROUGH SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION UNDER
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH DRIER 925MB AND
MIXING APPEAR TO LIMIT FORECAST  INSTABILITY TO ONLY AROUND 1000
J/KG.  BULK SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 20KT...SO ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH INCREASING DCAPE COULD STILL ENHANCE WIND
GUSTS FROM A FEW STORMS.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NORTHWEST TO LOWS
90S SOUTHEAST.

ONE LAST SPOKE OF VORTICITY ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW COULD TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA....BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE VOID OF ANY CONVECTION AS THE
AIRMASS DRIES A BIT AND PW DROPS BELOW 1.5".  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S UNDER DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY ISOLATED TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW SHEARS TO OUR NORTH AND JUST A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH
REMAINS AMIDST RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW A VERY
SHALLOW UPPER SHEAR LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...ABOVE 500 MB...DRIFTING
OVERHEAD...BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LOW FOR THIS FEATURE TO
TRIGGER MUCH CONVECTION.  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...WITH HIGHS COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER
90S.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 69-73 RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

WED-FRI: WITH THE DEPARTURE OF TODAY`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NE BY WED MORNING... MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES MID-LATE WEEK.
THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GEFS MEAN ALL DEPICT THIS EXPANSIVE
FEATURE STRETCHING FROM TX/OK TO OFF THE SE COAST... AND THEY AGREE
ON A SLOW RETROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS WITH
TIME. HOWEVER... THEY DIFFER A BIT REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
CENTERPOINT OF THIS RIDGE... WITH THE CANADIAN CENTERED OVER THE FAR
SRN APPALACHIANS BY FRI... A POSITION BETWEEN THE MORE EASTERLY GFS
AND MORE WESTERLY ECMWF. BUT REGARDLESS OF THE SPECIFICS... THIS
RIDGE WILL SERVE TO SUPPRESS THE WESTERLIES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
WILL STEADILY PUSH UP LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...
FROM AROUND 5 M ABOVE NORMAL WED TO AS MUCH AS 10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL
FRI. GIVEN THAT WE`RE APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY HOTTEST TIME
OF THE YEAR... IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO PUSH UP TEMP/HUMIDITY TO
UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER 90S WED WARMING TO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S BY FRI...
WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 70 TO MID 70S... A SLIGHT UPWARD BUMP FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. DESPITE THE WARM SURFACE TEMPS... DEEP
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LOW SHEAR ALONG WITH PW VALUES NEAR TO JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL LIMIT CONVECTION COVERAGE. EXPECT
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WED-FRI TO BE JUST UNDER CLIMATOLOGY (15-30%)
AND LARGELY CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEAST... ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA
BREEZE... AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTH... NEAR THE DECAYING SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED ACROSS VA.

SAT-SUN: THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED
WESTWARD TO TX/OK BY THE WEEKEND... AND THE RESULTING NW FLOW OVER
NC WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP ESE ACROSS NRN AND ERN NC.
ONE PRONOUNCED WAVE IN PARTICULAR SKIRTS ACROSS VA AND FAR NE NC
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF. AND WITH THE
RIDGE CENTER LIKELY TO CONTINUE A WESTWARD DRIFT TO NM/FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY SUN... ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES APPEAR LIKELY TO CROSS
VA/NC SUN AS WELL. CLOUDS AND BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE MAY TRIM A
COUPLE DEGREES OFF HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS OUR NORTH AND
EAST... BUT IT SHOULD STILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE-NORMAL THICKNESSES YIELDING HIGHS OF 90-95... HOTTEST IN THE
SW CWA. WITH THE UPTICK IN DYNAMIC FORCING AND SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR... WILL NUDGE UP POPS TO 20-40%... MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH/EAST. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM MONDAY...

A COUPLE AREAS OF IFR STRATUS...ONE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND
IMPACTING KGSO/KINT...AND THE OTHER OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IMPACTING
KRWI...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BY 12-13Z AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BY 15Z.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILIGS IS STILL POSSIBLE AT KRDU AND
KFAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS THEY MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST.  WHILE A THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AT EASTERN
TERMINALS...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PIN DOWN A SMALL TIME
FRAME...SO VCSH WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT TAF.  ALL ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO END BY 00-03Z AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST US THIS
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON STORMS TO MAINLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATE THIS WEEK.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD/22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION..22





000
FXUS62 KRAH 060731
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH
TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WEST
VIRGINIA LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL BRING A TREND
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY SHEARING UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA.  A FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND ALONG
THE NV/VA BORDER THEN DIPS INTO NORTHEAST NC.  ALL CONVECTION HAS
DEPARTED TO THE NORTHEAST AND A RIBBON OF STRATUS IS SLOWLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT...PER 11-9.3
MICRON IMAGERY.  IT APPEARS STRATUS WILL MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS
BETWEEN THE YADKIN/PEE-DEE ROVER AND US HWY 1...AND WILL BURN OFF
BY MID-MORNING.  MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
WELL INTO VA...LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT.  THE
TROUGH SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION UNDER
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH DRIER 925MB AND
MIXING APPEAR TO LIMIT FORECAST  INSTABILITY TO ONLY AROUND 1000
J/KG.  BULK SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 20KT...SO ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH INCREASING DCAPE COULD STILL ENHANCE WIND
GUSTS FROM A FEW STORMS.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NORTHWEST TO LOWS
90S SOUTHEAST.

ONE LAST SPOKE OF VORTICITY ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW COULD TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA....BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE VOID OF ANY CONVECTION AS THE
AIRMASS DRIES A BIT AND PW DROPS BELOW 1.5".  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S UNDER DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY ISOLATED TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW SHEARS TO OUR NORTH AND JUST A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH
REMAINS AMIDST RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW A VERY
SHALLOW UPPER SHEAR LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...ABOVE 500 MB...DRIFTING
OVERHEAD...BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LOW FOR THIS FEATURE TO
TRIGGER MUCH CONVECTION.  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...WITH HIGHS COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER
90S.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 69-73 RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

WED-FRI: WITH THE DEPARTURE OF TODAY`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NE BY WED MORNING... MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES MID-LATE WEEK.
THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GEFS MEAN ALL DEPICT THIS EXPANSIVE
FEATURE STRETCHING FROM TX/OK TO OFF THE SE COAST... AND THEY AGREE
ON A SLOW RETROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS WITH
TIME. HOWEVER... THEY DIFFER A BIT REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
CENTERPOINT OF THIS RIDGE... WITH THE CANADIAN CENTERED OVER THE FAR
SRN APPALACHIANS BY FRI... A POSITION BETWEEN THE MORE EASTERLY GFS
AND MORE WESTERLY ECMWF. BUT REGARDLESS OF THE SPECIFICS... THIS
RIDGE WILL SERVE TO SUPPRESS THE WESTERLIES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
WILL STEADILY PUSH UP LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...
FROM AROUND 5 M ABOVE NORMAL WED TO AS MUCH AS 10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL
FRI. GIVEN THAT WE`RE APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY HOTTEST TIME
OF THE YEAR... IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO PUSH UP TEMP/HUMIDITY TO
UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER 90S WED WARMING TO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S BY FRI...
WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 70 TO MID 70S... A SLIGHT UPWARD BUMP FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. DESPITE THE WARM SURFACE TEMPS... DEEP
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LOW SHEAR ALONG WITH PW VALUES NEAR TO JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL LIMIT CONVECTION COVERAGE. EXPECT
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WED-FRI TO BE JUST UNDER CLIMATOLOGY (15-30%)
AND LARGELY CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEAST... ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA
BREEZE... AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTH... NEAR THE DECAYING SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED ACROSS VA.

SAT-SUN: THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED
WESTWARD TO TX/OK BY THE WEEKEND... AND THE RESULTING NW FLOW OVER
NC WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP ESE ACROSS NRN AND ERN NC.
ONE PRONOUNCED WAVE IN PARTICULAR SKIRTS ACROSS VA AND FAR NE NC
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF. AND WITH THE
RIDGE CENTER LIKELY TO CONTINUE A WESTWARD DRIFT TO NM/FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY SUN... ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES APPEAR LIKELY TO CROSS
VA/NC SUN AS WELL. CLOUDS AND BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE MAY TRIM A
COUPLE DEGREES OFF HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS OUR NORTH AND
EAST... BUT IT SHOULD STILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE-NORMAL THICKNESSES YIELDING HIGHS OF 90-95... HOTTEST IN THE
SW CWA. WITH THE UPTICK IN DYNAMIC FORCING AND SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR... WILL NUDGE UP POPS TO 20-40%... MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH/EAST. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM MONDAY...

THE BULK OF LAST EVENINGS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOVED OFF INTO SE
VA...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH A
LINGER FRONT JUST NORTH OF KRDU AND KRWI.  MEANWHILE...SOME CLEARING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND/OR AN AREA
OF STRATUS...FOCUSED MOSTLY BETWEEN KGSO AND KRDU BASED ON NEAR TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE....THOUGH KINT/KGSO/KRDU/KRWI COULD ALL SEE SOME IFR
CEILINGS BY 12Z.

LATER TODAY...AFTER ANY MORNING STRATUS BURNS OFF...SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...PRIMARILY FROM KRDU TO THE EAST...MOVING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LONG TERM: CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE
COMING DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE PATTERN A
LITTLE MORE. STILL LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD/22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION..ELLIS/22




000
FXUS62 KRAH 060731
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH
TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WEST
VIRGINIA LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL BRING A TREND
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY SHEARING UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA.  A FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND ALONG
THE NV/VA BORDER THEN DIPS INTO NORTHEAST NC.  ALL CONVECTION HAS
DEPARTED TO THE NORTHEAST AND A RIBBON OF STRATUS IS SLOWLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT...PER 11-9.3
MICRON IMAGERY.  IT APPEARS STRATUS WILL MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS
BETWEEN THE YADKIN/PEE-DEE ROVER AND US HWY 1...AND WILL BURN OFF
BY MID-MORNING.  MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
WELL INTO VA...LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT.  THE
TROUGH SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION UNDER
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH DRIER 925MB AND
MIXING APPEAR TO LIMIT FORECAST  INSTABILITY TO ONLY AROUND 1000
J/KG.  BULK SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 20KT...SO ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH INCREASING DCAPE COULD STILL ENHANCE WIND
GUSTS FROM A FEW STORMS.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NORTHWEST TO LOWS
90S SOUTHEAST.

ONE LAST SPOKE OF VORTICITY ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW COULD TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA....BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE VOID OF ANY CONVECTION AS THE
AIRMASS DRIES A BIT AND PW DROPS BELOW 1.5".  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S UNDER DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY ISOLATED TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW SHEARS TO OUR NORTH AND JUST A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH
REMAINS AMIDST RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW A VERY
SHALLOW UPPER SHEAR LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...ABOVE 500 MB...DRIFTING
OVERHEAD...BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LOW FOR THIS FEATURE TO
TRIGGER MUCH CONVECTION.  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...WITH HIGHS COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER
90S.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 69-73 RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

WED-FRI: WITH THE DEPARTURE OF TODAY`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NE BY WED MORNING... MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES MID-LATE WEEK.
THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GEFS MEAN ALL DEPICT THIS EXPANSIVE
FEATURE STRETCHING FROM TX/OK TO OFF THE SE COAST... AND THEY AGREE
ON A SLOW RETROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS WITH
TIME. HOWEVER... THEY DIFFER A BIT REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
CENTERPOINT OF THIS RIDGE... WITH THE CANADIAN CENTERED OVER THE FAR
SRN APPALACHIANS BY FRI... A POSITION BETWEEN THE MORE EASTERLY GFS
AND MORE WESTERLY ECMWF. BUT REGARDLESS OF THE SPECIFICS... THIS
RIDGE WILL SERVE TO SUPPRESS THE WESTERLIES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
WILL STEADILY PUSH UP LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...
FROM AROUND 5 M ABOVE NORMAL WED TO AS MUCH AS 10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL
FRI. GIVEN THAT WE`RE APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY HOTTEST TIME
OF THE YEAR... IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO PUSH UP TEMP/HUMIDITY TO
UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER 90S WED WARMING TO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S BY FRI...
WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 70 TO MID 70S... A SLIGHT UPWARD BUMP FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. DESPITE THE WARM SURFACE TEMPS... DEEP
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LOW SHEAR ALONG WITH PW VALUES NEAR TO JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL LIMIT CONVECTION COVERAGE. EXPECT
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WED-FRI TO BE JUST UNDER CLIMATOLOGY (15-30%)
AND LARGELY CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEAST... ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA
BREEZE... AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTH... NEAR THE DECAYING SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED ACROSS VA.

SAT-SUN: THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED
WESTWARD TO TX/OK BY THE WEEKEND... AND THE RESULTING NW FLOW OVER
NC WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP ESE ACROSS NRN AND ERN NC.
ONE PRONOUNCED WAVE IN PARTICULAR SKIRTS ACROSS VA AND FAR NE NC
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF. AND WITH THE
RIDGE CENTER LIKELY TO CONTINUE A WESTWARD DRIFT TO NM/FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY SUN... ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES APPEAR LIKELY TO CROSS
VA/NC SUN AS WELL. CLOUDS AND BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE MAY TRIM A
COUPLE DEGREES OFF HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS OUR NORTH AND
EAST... BUT IT SHOULD STILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE-NORMAL THICKNESSES YIELDING HIGHS OF 90-95... HOTTEST IN THE
SW CWA. WITH THE UPTICK IN DYNAMIC FORCING AND SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR... WILL NUDGE UP POPS TO 20-40%... MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH/EAST. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM MONDAY...

THE BULK OF LAST EVENINGS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOVED OFF INTO SE
VA...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH A
LINGER FRONT JUST NORTH OF KRDU AND KRWI.  MEANWHILE...SOME CLEARING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND/OR AN AREA
OF STRATUS...FOCUSED MOSTLY BETWEEN KGSO AND KRDU BASED ON NEAR TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE....THOUGH KINT/KGSO/KRDU/KRWI COULD ALL SEE SOME IFR
CEILINGS BY 12Z.

LATER TODAY...AFTER ANY MORNING STRATUS BURNS OFF...SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...PRIMARILY FROM KRDU TO THE EAST...MOVING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LONG TERM: CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE
COMING DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE PATTERN A
LITTLE MORE. STILL LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD/22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION..ELLIS/22





000
FXUS62 KRAH 060731
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH
TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WEST
VIRGINIA LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL BRING A TREND
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY SHEARING UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA.  A FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND ALONG
THE NV/VA BORDER THEN DIPS INTO NORTHEAST NC.  ALL CONVECTION HAS
DEPARTED TO THE NORTHEAST AND A RIBBON OF STRATUS IS SLOWLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT...PER 11-9.3
MICRON IMAGERY.  IT APPEARS STRATUS WILL MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS
BETWEEN THE YADKIN/PEE-DEE ROVER AND US HWY 1...AND WILL BURN OFF
BY MID-MORNING.  MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
WELL INTO VA...LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT.  THE
TROUGH SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION UNDER
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH DRIER 925MB AND
MIXING APPEAR TO LIMIT FORECAST  INSTABILITY TO ONLY AROUND 1000
J/KG.  BULK SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 20KT...SO ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH INCREASING DCAPE COULD STILL ENHANCE WIND
GUSTS FROM A FEW STORMS.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NORTHWEST TO LOWS
90S SOUTHEAST.

ONE LAST SPOKE OF VORTICITY ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW COULD TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA....BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE VOID OF ANY CONVECTION AS THE
AIRMASS DRIES A BIT AND PW DROPS BELOW 1.5".  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S UNDER DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY ISOLATED TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW SHEARS TO OUR NORTH AND JUST A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH
REMAINS AMIDST RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW A VERY
SHALLOW UPPER SHEAR LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...ABOVE 500 MB...DRIFTING
OVERHEAD...BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LOW FOR THIS FEATURE TO
TRIGGER MUCH CONVECTION.  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...WITH HIGHS COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER
90S.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 69-73 RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

WED-FRI: WITH THE DEPARTURE OF TODAY`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NE BY WED MORNING... MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES MID-LATE WEEK.
THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GEFS MEAN ALL DEPICT THIS EXPANSIVE
FEATURE STRETCHING FROM TX/OK TO OFF THE SE COAST... AND THEY AGREE
ON A SLOW RETROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS WITH
TIME. HOWEVER... THEY DIFFER A BIT REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
CENTERPOINT OF THIS RIDGE... WITH THE CANADIAN CENTERED OVER THE FAR
SRN APPALACHIANS BY FRI... A POSITION BETWEEN THE MORE EASTERLY GFS
AND MORE WESTERLY ECMWF. BUT REGARDLESS OF THE SPECIFICS... THIS
RIDGE WILL SERVE TO SUPPRESS THE WESTERLIES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
WILL STEADILY PUSH UP LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...
FROM AROUND 5 M ABOVE NORMAL WED TO AS MUCH AS 10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL
FRI. GIVEN THAT WE`RE APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY HOTTEST TIME
OF THE YEAR... IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO PUSH UP TEMP/HUMIDITY TO
UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER 90S WED WARMING TO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S BY FRI...
WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 70 TO MID 70S... A SLIGHT UPWARD BUMP FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. DESPITE THE WARM SURFACE TEMPS... DEEP
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LOW SHEAR ALONG WITH PW VALUES NEAR TO JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL LIMIT CONVECTION COVERAGE. EXPECT
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WED-FRI TO BE JUST UNDER CLIMATOLOGY (15-30%)
AND LARGELY CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEAST... ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA
BREEZE... AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTH... NEAR THE DECAYING SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED ACROSS VA.

SAT-SUN: THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED
WESTWARD TO TX/OK BY THE WEEKEND... AND THE RESULTING NW FLOW OVER
NC WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP ESE ACROSS NRN AND ERN NC.
ONE PRONOUNCED WAVE IN PARTICULAR SKIRTS ACROSS VA AND FAR NE NC
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF. AND WITH THE
RIDGE CENTER LIKELY TO CONTINUE A WESTWARD DRIFT TO NM/FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY SUN... ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES APPEAR LIKELY TO CROSS
VA/NC SUN AS WELL. CLOUDS AND BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE MAY TRIM A
COUPLE DEGREES OFF HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS OUR NORTH AND
EAST... BUT IT SHOULD STILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE-NORMAL THICKNESSES YIELDING HIGHS OF 90-95... HOTTEST IN THE
SW CWA. WITH THE UPTICK IN DYNAMIC FORCING AND SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR... WILL NUDGE UP POPS TO 20-40%... MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH/EAST. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM MONDAY...

THE BULK OF LAST EVENINGS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOVED OFF INTO SE
VA...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH A
LINGER FRONT JUST NORTH OF KRDU AND KRWI.  MEANWHILE...SOME CLEARING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND/OR AN AREA
OF STRATUS...FOCUSED MOSTLY BETWEEN KGSO AND KRDU BASED ON NEAR TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE....THOUGH KINT/KGSO/KRDU/KRWI COULD ALL SEE SOME IFR
CEILINGS BY 12Z.

LATER TODAY...AFTER ANY MORNING STRATUS BURNS OFF...SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...PRIMARILY FROM KRDU TO THE EAST...MOVING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LONG TERM: CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE
COMING DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE PATTERN A
LITTLE MORE. STILL LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD/22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION..ELLIS/22




000
FXUS62 KRAH 060731
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH
TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WEST
VIRGINIA LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL BRING A TREND
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY SHEARING UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA.  A FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND ALONG
THE NV/VA BORDER THEN DIPS INTO NORTHEAST NC.  ALL CONVECTION HAS
DEPARTED TO THE NORTHEAST AND A RIBBON OF STRATUS IS SLOWLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT...PER 11-9.3
MICRON IMAGERY.  IT APPEARS STRATUS WILL MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS
BETWEEN THE YADKIN/PEE-DEE ROVER AND US HWY 1...AND WILL BURN OFF
BY MID-MORNING.  MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
WELL INTO VA...LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT.  THE
TROUGH SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION UNDER
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH DRIER 925MB AND
MIXING APPEAR TO LIMIT FORECAST  INSTABILITY TO ONLY AROUND 1000
J/KG.  BULK SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 20KT...SO ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH INCREASING DCAPE COULD STILL ENHANCE WIND
GUSTS FROM A FEW STORMS.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NORTHWEST TO LOWS
90S SOUTHEAST.

ONE LAST SPOKE OF VORTICITY ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW COULD TRIGGER A
FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA....BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE VOID OF ANY CONVECTION AS THE
AIRMASS DRIES A BIT AND PW DROPS BELOW 1.5".  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S UNDER DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY ISOLATED TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW SHEARS TO OUR NORTH AND JUST A WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH
REMAINS AMIDST RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW A VERY
SHALLOW UPPER SHEAR LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...ABOVE 500 MB...DRIFTING
OVERHEAD...BUT INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LOW FOR THIS FEATURE TO
TRIGGER MUCH CONVECTION.  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...WITH HIGHS COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE LOWER
90S.  LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 69-73 RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

WED-FRI: WITH THE DEPARTURE OF TODAY`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NE BY WED MORNING... MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES MID-LATE WEEK.
THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GEFS MEAN ALL DEPICT THIS EXPANSIVE
FEATURE STRETCHING FROM TX/OK TO OFF THE SE COAST... AND THEY AGREE
ON A SLOW RETROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS WITH
TIME. HOWEVER... THEY DIFFER A BIT REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
CENTERPOINT OF THIS RIDGE... WITH THE CANADIAN CENTERED OVER THE FAR
SRN APPALACHIANS BY FRI... A POSITION BETWEEN THE MORE EASTERLY GFS
AND MORE WESTERLY ECMWF. BUT REGARDLESS OF THE SPECIFICS... THIS
RIDGE WILL SERVE TO SUPPRESS THE WESTERLIES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
WILL STEADILY PUSH UP LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...
FROM AROUND 5 M ABOVE NORMAL WED TO AS MUCH AS 10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL
FRI. GIVEN THAT WE`RE APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY HOTTEST TIME
OF THE YEAR... IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO PUSH UP TEMP/HUMIDITY TO
UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER 90S WED WARMING TO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S BY FRI...
WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 70 TO MID 70S... A SLIGHT UPWARD BUMP FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. DESPITE THE WARM SURFACE TEMPS... DEEP
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LOW SHEAR ALONG WITH PW VALUES NEAR TO JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL LIMIT CONVECTION COVERAGE. EXPECT
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WED-FRI TO BE JUST UNDER CLIMATOLOGY (15-30%)
AND LARGELY CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEAST... ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA
BREEZE... AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTH... NEAR THE DECAYING SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED ACROSS VA.

SAT-SUN: THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED
WESTWARD TO TX/OK BY THE WEEKEND... AND THE RESULTING NW FLOW OVER
NC WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP ESE ACROSS NRN AND ERN NC.
ONE PRONOUNCED WAVE IN PARTICULAR SKIRTS ACROSS VA AND FAR NE NC
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF. AND WITH THE
RIDGE CENTER LIKELY TO CONTINUE A WESTWARD DRIFT TO NM/FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY SUN... ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES APPEAR LIKELY TO CROSS
VA/NC SUN AS WELL. CLOUDS AND BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE MAY TRIM A
COUPLE DEGREES OFF HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS OUR NORTH AND
EAST... BUT IT SHOULD STILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE-NORMAL THICKNESSES YIELDING HIGHS OF 90-95... HOTTEST IN THE
SW CWA. WITH THE UPTICK IN DYNAMIC FORCING AND SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR... WILL NUDGE UP POPS TO 20-40%... MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH/EAST. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM MONDAY...

THE BULK OF LAST EVENINGS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOVED OFF INTO SE
VA...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH A
LINGER FRONT JUST NORTH OF KRDU AND KRWI.  MEANWHILE...SOME CLEARING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND/OR AN AREA
OF STRATUS...FOCUSED MOSTLY BETWEEN KGSO AND KRDU BASED ON NEAR TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE....THOUGH KINT/KGSO/KRDU/KRWI COULD ALL SEE SOME IFR
CEILINGS BY 12Z.

LATER TODAY...AFTER ANY MORNING STRATUS BURNS OFF...SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...PRIMARILY FROM KRDU TO THE EAST...MOVING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LONG TERM: CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE
COMING DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE PATTERN A
LITTLE MORE. STILL LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD/22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION..ELLIS/22





000
FXUS62 KRAH 060717
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH
TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WEST
VIRGINIA LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL BRING A TREND
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...

MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. PERTURBATIONS ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE HELPED TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION...OF
WHICH SOME IS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN. SEVERAL OF THE STORMS BECAME SEVERE EARLIER THIS
EVENING AS MLCAPE VALUES SOARED INTO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. STORMS
HAVE LARGELY WEAKENED LATE THIS EVENING...BUT FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS
STILL OCCURRING. ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF CONVECTION EXITS
THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSING THE AREA...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

A 850-700MB TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH HEATING OF THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE ENHANCED
OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN IN VICINITY OF THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RELATIVELY WEAK AND AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY ALSO WEAK SO SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT/DURATION OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...AND WHEN/EXTENT OF CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. FAVOR MAX
TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MOS CONSENSUS (UPPER 80S FAR NORTH-
NW TO NEAR 90-LOWER 90S SOUTH).

MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DIMINISH/DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR
OR TWO OF SUNSET. WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTING AWAY FROM
OUR REGION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS 67-73.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

WED-FRI: WITH THE DEPARTURE OF TODAY`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NE BY WED MORNING... MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES MID-LATE WEEK.
THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GEFS MEAN ALL DEPICT THIS EXPANSIVE
FEATURE STRETCHING FROM TX/OK TO OFF THE SE COAST... AND THEY AGREE
ON A SLOW RETROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS WITH
TIME. HOWEVER... THEY DIFFER A BIT REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
CENTERPOINT OF THIS RIDGE... WITH THE CANADIAN CENTERED OVER THE FAR
SRN APPALACHIANS BY FRI... A POSITION BETWEEN THE MORE EASTERLY GFS
AND MORE WESTERLY ECMWF. BUT REGARDLESS OF THE SPECIFICS... THIS
RIDGE WILL SERVE TO SUPPRESS THE WESTERLIES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
WILL STEADILY PUSH UP LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...
FROM AROUND 5 M ABOVE NORMAL WED TO AS MUCH AS 10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL
FRI. GIVEN THAT WE`RE APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY HOTTEST TIME
OF THE YEAR... IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO PUSH UP TEMP/HUMIDITY TO
UNCOMFORTABLE LEVELS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER 90S WED WARMING TO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S BY FRI...
WITH LOWS FROM AROUND 70 TO MID 70S... A SLIGHT UPWARD BUMP FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. DESPITE THE WARM SURFACE TEMPS... DEEP
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LOW SHEAR ALONG WITH PW VALUES NEAR TO JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL LIMIT CONVECTION COVERAGE. EXPECT
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WED-FRI TO BE JUST UNDER CLIMATOLOGY (15-30%)
AND LARGELY CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEAST... ALONG THE INLAND-MOVING SEA
BREEZE... AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTH... NEAR THE DECAYING SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHED ACROSS VA.

SAT-SUN: THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED
WESTWARD TO TX/OK BY THE WEEKEND... AND THE RESULTING NW FLOW OVER
NC WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP ESE ACROSS NRN AND ERN NC.
ONE PRONOUNCED WAVE IN PARTICULAR SKIRTS ACROSS VA AND FAR NE NC
LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF. AND WITH THE
RIDGE CENTER LIKELY TO CONTINUE A WESTWARD DRIFT TO NM/FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY SUN... ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES APPEAR LIKELY TO CROSS
VA/NC SUN AS WELL. CLOUDS AND BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE MAY TRIM A
COUPLE DEGREES OFF HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS OUR NORTH AND
EAST... BUT IT SHOULD STILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE-NORMAL THICKNESSES YIELDING HIGHS OF 90-95... HOTTEST IN THE
SW CWA. WITH THE UPTICK IN DYNAMIC FORCING AND SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR... WILL NUDGE UP POPS TO 20-40%... MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH/EAST. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM MONDAY...

THE BULK OF LAST EVENINGS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOVED OFF INTO SE
VA...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH A
LINGER FRONT JUST NORTH OF KRDU AND KRWI.  MEANWHILE...SOME CLEARING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND/OR AN AREA
OF STRATUS...FOCUSED MOSTLY BETWEEN KGSO AND KRDU BASED ON NEAR TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE....THOUGH KINT/KGSO/KRDU/KRWI COULD ALL SEE SOME IFR
CEILINGS BY 12Z.

LATER TODAY...AFTER ANY MORNING STRATUS BURNS OFF...SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...PRIMARILY FROM KRDU TO THE EAST...MOVING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LONG TERM: CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE
COMING DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE PATTERN A
LITTLE MORE. STILL LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD/22
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION..ELLIS/22





000
FXUS62 KRAH 060543
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH
TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WEST
VIRGINIA LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL BRING A TREND
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK
WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...

MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. PERTURBATIONS ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE HELPED TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION...OF
WHICH SOME IS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN. SEVERAL OF THE STORMS BECAME SEVERE EARLIER THIS
EVENING AS MLCAPE VALUES SOARED INTO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. STORMS
HAVE LARGELY WEAKENED LATE THIS EVENING...BUT FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS
STILL OCCURRING. ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF CONVECTION EXITS
THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSING THE AREA...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

A 850-700MB TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH HEATING OF THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE ENHANCED
OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN IN VICINITY OF THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RELATIVELY WEAK AND AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY ALSO WEAK SO SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT/DURATION OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...AND WHEN/EXTENT OF CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. FAVOR MAX
TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MOS CONSENSUS (UPPER 80S FAR NORTH-
NW TO NEAR 90-LOWER 90S SOUTH).

MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DIMINISH/DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR
OR TWO OF SUNSET. WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTING AWAY FROM
OUR REGION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS 67-73.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...INCLUDING
FRONTS...REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RUN
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S. THE LATEST GFS AND THE 00Z EURO GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST TEMPS MAY
TRY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS MAKE
SENSE GIVEN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THAT TIME. AS SUCH...WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAMP UP ADVERTISING HEAT
IMPACTS AND SAFETY ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY-
DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE TUE/WED BEFORE THE RIDGE
BECOMES WELL-ESTABLISHED...AND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...PRECIP
CHANCES AT OR BELOW CLIMO DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM MONDAY...

THE BULK OF LAST EVENINGS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOVED OFF INTO SE
VA...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH A
LINGER FRONT JUST NORTH OF KRDU AND KRWI.  MEANWHILE...SOME CLEARING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND/OR AN AREA
OF STRATUS...FOCUSED MOSTLY BETWEEN KGSO AND KRDU BASED ON NEAR TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE....THOUGH KINT/KGSO/KRDU/KRWI COULD ALL SEE SOME IFR
CEILINGS BY 12Z.

LATER TODAY...AFTER ANY MORNING STRATUS BURNS OFF...SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...PRIMARILY FROM KRDU TO THE EAST...MOVING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LONG TERM: CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE
COMING DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE PATTERN A
LITTLE MORE. STILL LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD/22
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION..ELLIS/22





000
FXUS62 KRAH 060543
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH
TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WEST
VIRGINIA LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL BRING A TREND
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK
WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...

MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. PERTURBATIONS ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE HELPED TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION...OF
WHICH SOME IS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN. SEVERAL OF THE STORMS BECAME SEVERE EARLIER THIS
EVENING AS MLCAPE VALUES SOARED INTO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. STORMS
HAVE LARGELY WEAKENED LATE THIS EVENING...BUT FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS
STILL OCCURRING. ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF CONVECTION EXITS
THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSING THE AREA...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

A 850-700MB TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH HEATING OF THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE ENHANCED
OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN IN VICINITY OF THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RELATIVELY WEAK AND AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY ALSO WEAK SO SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT/DURATION OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...AND WHEN/EXTENT OF CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. FAVOR MAX
TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MOS CONSENSUS (UPPER 80S FAR NORTH-
NW TO NEAR 90-LOWER 90S SOUTH).

MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DIMINISH/DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR
OR TWO OF SUNSET. WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTING AWAY FROM
OUR REGION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS 67-73.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...INCLUDING
FRONTS...REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RUN
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S. THE LATEST GFS AND THE 00Z EURO GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST TEMPS MAY
TRY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS MAKE
SENSE GIVEN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THAT TIME. AS SUCH...WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAMP UP ADVERTISING HEAT
IMPACTS AND SAFETY ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY-
DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE TUE/WED BEFORE THE RIDGE
BECOMES WELL-ESTABLISHED...AND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...PRECIP
CHANCES AT OR BELOW CLIMO DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM MONDAY...

THE BULK OF LAST EVENINGS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOVED OFF INTO SE
VA...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH A
LINGER FRONT JUST NORTH OF KRDU AND KRWI.  MEANWHILE...SOME CLEARING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND/OR AN AREA
OF STRATUS...FOCUSED MOSTLY BETWEEN KGSO AND KRDU BASED ON NEAR TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE....THOUGH KINT/KGSO/KRDU/KRWI COULD ALL SEE SOME IFR
CEILINGS BY 12Z.

LATER TODAY...AFTER ANY MORNING STRATUS BURNS OFF...SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...PRIMARILY FROM KRDU TO THE EAST...MOVING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LONG TERM: CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE
COMING DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE PATTERN A
LITTLE MORE. STILL LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD/22
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION..ELLIS/22




000
FXUS62 KRAH 060543
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH
TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WEST
VIRGINIA LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL BRING A TREND
TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK
WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...

MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. PERTURBATIONS ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE HELPED TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION...OF
WHICH SOME IS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN. SEVERAL OF THE STORMS BECAME SEVERE EARLIER THIS
EVENING AS MLCAPE VALUES SOARED INTO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. STORMS
HAVE LARGELY WEAKENED LATE THIS EVENING...BUT FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS
STILL OCCURRING. ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF CONVECTION EXITS
THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSING THE AREA...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

A 850-700MB TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH HEATING OF THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE ENHANCED
OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN IN VICINITY OF THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RELATIVELY WEAK AND AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY ALSO WEAK SO SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT/DURATION OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...AND WHEN/EXTENT OF CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. FAVOR MAX
TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MOS CONSENSUS (UPPER 80S FAR NORTH-
NW TO NEAR 90-LOWER 90S SOUTH).

MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DIMINISH/DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR
OR TWO OF SUNSET. WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTING AWAY FROM
OUR REGION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS 67-73.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...INCLUDING
FRONTS...REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RUN
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S. THE LATEST GFS AND THE 00Z EURO GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST TEMPS MAY
TRY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS MAKE
SENSE GIVEN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THAT TIME. AS SUCH...WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAMP UP ADVERTISING HEAT
IMPACTS AND SAFETY ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY-
DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE TUE/WED BEFORE THE RIDGE
BECOMES WELL-ESTABLISHED...AND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...PRECIP
CHANCES AT OR BELOW CLIMO DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM MONDAY...

THE BULK OF LAST EVENINGS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOVED OFF INTO SE
VA...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH A
LINGER FRONT JUST NORTH OF KRDU AND KRWI.  MEANWHILE...SOME CLEARING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND/OR AN AREA
OF STRATUS...FOCUSED MOSTLY BETWEEN KGSO AND KRDU BASED ON NEAR TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE....THOUGH KINT/KGSO/KRDU/KRWI COULD ALL SEE SOME IFR
CEILINGS BY 12Z.

LATER TODAY...AFTER ANY MORNING STRATUS BURNS OFF...SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...PRIMARILY FROM KRDU TO THE EAST...MOVING
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LONG TERM: CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE
COMING DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE PATTERN A
LITTLE MORE. STILL LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD/22
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION..ELLIS/22





000
FXUS62 KRAH 060245
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1045 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY...AND A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...

MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. PERTURBATIONS ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE HELPED TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION...OF
WHICH SOME IS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN. SEVERAL OF THE STORMS BECAME SEVERE EARLIER THIS
EVENING AS MLCAPE VALUES SOARED INTO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. STORMS
HAVE LARGELY WEAKENED LATE THIS EVENING...BUT FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS
STILL OCCURRING. ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF CONVECTION EXITS
THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSING THE AREA...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

A 850-700MB TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH HEATING OF THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE ENHANCED
OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN IN VICINITY OF THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RELATIVELY WEAK AND AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY ALSO WEAK SO SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT/DURATION OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...AND WHEN/EXTENT OF CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. FAVOR MAX
TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MOS CONSENSUS (UPPER 80S FAR NORTH-
NW TO NEAR 90-LOWER 90S SOUTH).

MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DIMINISH/DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR
OR TWO OF SUNSET. WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTING AWAY FROM
OUR REGION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS 67-73.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...INCLUDING
FRONTS...REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RUN
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S. THE LATEST GFS AND THE 00Z EURO GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST TEMPS MAY
TRY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS MAKE
SENSE GIVEN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THAT TIME. AS SUCH...WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAMP UP ADVERTISING HEAT
IMPACTS AND SAFETY ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY-
DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE TUE/WED BEFORE THE RIDGE
BECOMES WELL-ESTABLISHED...AND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...PRECIP
CHANCES AT OR BELOW CLIMO DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM SUNDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: THUNDER MOVING THROUGH KRDU IS ON A WEAKENING
TREND AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STILL AFFECT THE TRIAD SITES LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE AT 5-
10 KTS. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS IN RAIN
COOLED AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING TOO MANY
RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION CONDITIONS. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM: CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE
COMING DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE PATTERN A
LITTLE MORE. STILL LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION..ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 060245
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1045 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY...AND A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...

MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. PERTURBATIONS ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE HELPED TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION...OF
WHICH SOME IS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN. SEVERAL OF THE STORMS BECAME SEVERE EARLIER THIS
EVENING AS MLCAPE VALUES SOARED INTO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. STORMS
HAVE LARGELY WEAKENED LATE THIS EVENING...BUT FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS
STILL OCCURRING. ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF CONVECTION EXITS
THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSING THE AREA...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

A 850-700MB TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH HEATING OF THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE ENHANCED
OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN IN VICINITY OF THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RELATIVELY WEAK AND AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY ALSO WEAK SO SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT/DURATION OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...AND WHEN/EXTENT OF CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. FAVOR MAX
TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MOS CONSENSUS (UPPER 80S FAR NORTH-
NW TO NEAR 90-LOWER 90S SOUTH).

MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DIMINISH/DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR
OR TWO OF SUNSET. WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTING AWAY FROM
OUR REGION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS 67-73.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...INCLUDING
FRONTS...REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RUN
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S. THE LATEST GFS AND THE 00Z EURO GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST TEMPS MAY
TRY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS MAKE
SENSE GIVEN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THAT TIME. AS SUCH...WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAMP UP ADVERTISING HEAT
IMPACTS AND SAFETY ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY-
DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE TUE/WED BEFORE THE RIDGE
BECOMES WELL-ESTABLISHED...AND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...PRECIP
CHANCES AT OR BELOW CLIMO DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM SUNDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: THUNDER MOVING THROUGH KRDU IS ON A WEAKENING
TREND AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STILL AFFECT THE TRIAD SITES LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE AT 5-
10 KTS. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS IN RAIN
COOLED AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING TOO MANY
RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION CONDITIONS. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM: CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE
COMING DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE PATTERN A
LITTLE MORE. STILL LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION..ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 060245
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1045 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY...AND A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...

MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. PERTURBATIONS ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE HELPED TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION...OF
WHICH SOME IS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN. SEVERAL OF THE STORMS BECAME SEVERE EARLIER THIS
EVENING AS MLCAPE VALUES SOARED INTO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. STORMS
HAVE LARGELY WEAKENED LATE THIS EVENING...BUT FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS
STILL OCCURRING. ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF CONVECTION EXITS
THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSING THE AREA...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

A 850-700MB TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH HEATING OF THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE ENHANCED
OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN IN VICINITY OF THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RELATIVELY WEAK AND AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY ALSO WEAK SO SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT/DURATION OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...AND WHEN/EXTENT OF CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. FAVOR MAX
TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MOS CONSENSUS (UPPER 80S FAR NORTH-
NW TO NEAR 90-LOWER 90S SOUTH).

MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DIMINISH/DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR
OR TWO OF SUNSET. WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTING AWAY FROM
OUR REGION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS 67-73.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...INCLUDING
FRONTS...REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RUN
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S. THE LATEST GFS AND THE 00Z EURO GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST TEMPS MAY
TRY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS MAKE
SENSE GIVEN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THAT TIME. AS SUCH...WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAMP UP ADVERTISING HEAT
IMPACTS AND SAFETY ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY-
DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE TUE/WED BEFORE THE RIDGE
BECOMES WELL-ESTABLISHED...AND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...PRECIP
CHANCES AT OR BELOW CLIMO DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM SUNDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: THUNDER MOVING THROUGH KRDU IS ON A WEAKENING
TREND AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STILL AFFECT THE TRIAD SITES LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE AT 5-
10 KTS. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS IN RAIN
COOLED AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING TOO MANY
RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION CONDITIONS. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM: CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE
COMING DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE PATTERN A
LITTLE MORE. STILL LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION..ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 060245
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1045 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY...AND A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...

MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. PERTURBATIONS ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE HELPED TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION...OF
WHICH SOME IS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN. SEVERAL OF THE STORMS BECAME SEVERE EARLIER THIS
EVENING AS MLCAPE VALUES SOARED INTO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. STORMS
HAVE LARGELY WEAKENED LATE THIS EVENING...BUT FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS
STILL OCCURRING. ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF CONVECTION EXITS
THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRANSVERSING THE AREA...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

A 850-700MB TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH HEATING OF THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE ENHANCED
OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN IN VICINITY OF THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RELATIVELY WEAK AND AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY ALSO WEAK SO SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT/DURATION OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...AND WHEN/EXTENT OF CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. FAVOR MAX
TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MOS CONSENSUS (UPPER 80S FAR NORTH-
NW TO NEAR 90-LOWER 90S SOUTH).

MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DIMINISH/DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR
OR TWO OF SUNSET. WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTING AWAY FROM
OUR REGION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS 67-73.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...INCLUDING
FRONTS...REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RUN
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S. THE LATEST GFS AND THE 00Z EURO GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST TEMPS MAY
TRY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS MAKE
SENSE GIVEN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THAT TIME. AS SUCH...WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAMP UP ADVERTISING HEAT
IMPACTS AND SAFETY ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY-
DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE TUE/WED BEFORE THE RIDGE
BECOMES WELL-ESTABLISHED...AND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...PRECIP
CHANCES AT OR BELOW CLIMO DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM SUNDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: THUNDER MOVING THROUGH KRDU IS ON A WEAKENING
TREND AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STILL AFFECT THE TRIAD SITES LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE AT 5-
10 KTS. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS IN RAIN
COOLED AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING TOO MANY
RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION CONDITIONS. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM: CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE
COMING DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE PATTERN A
LITTLE MORE. STILL LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION..ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 060108
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
907 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE
VA AND NC BORDER TODAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT
NORTHWARD WITH THE MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES ON MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SUNDAY...

EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 6 PM AS ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME SLIGHT TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG OVER SECTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED WEST-TO-EAST NEAR THE VA BORDER.
IN ADDITION...NOTED SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE OVER OUR SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AS A 925-850MB TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SW. THIS TROUGH A
LIKELY REFLECTION OF A SHEAR AXIS LIFTING SLOWLY N-NE WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS EXITING MID TN INTO EASTERN KY AT MID
AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 DEG C/KM
OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND D-CAPE VALUES APPROACHING A 1K J/KG
IN VICINITY OR EAST OF I-95. THUS...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS 35-45KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 50KTS
POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE/DIMINISH AFTER 9 PM THOUGH COULD SEE
A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORM PERSIST PAST MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BETTER
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. PARTIAL CLEARING ONCE THE CONVECTION DISSIPATES
WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW A LOW STRATUS LAYER TO DEVELOP IN AREAS PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK. THUS EARLY MONDAY MAY START OUT BROKEN-OVERCAST SKIES
FOR MOST FOLKS. MIN TEMPS 68-73.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

A 850-700MB TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH HEATING OF THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE ENHANCED
OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN IN VICINITY OF THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RELATIVELY WEAK AND AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY ALSO WEAK SO SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT/DURATION OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...AND WHEN/EXTENT OF CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. FAVOR MAX
TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MOS CONSENSUS (UPPER 80S FAR NORTH-
NW TO NEAR 90-LOWER 90S SOUTH).

MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DIMINISH/DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR
OR TWO OF SUNSET. WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTING AWAY FROM
OUR REGION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS 67-73.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...INCLUDING
FRONTS...REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RUN
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S. THE LATEST GFS AND THE 00Z EURO GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST TEMPS MAY
TRY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS MAKE
SENSE GIVEN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THAT TIME. AS SUCH...WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAMP UP ADVERTISING HEAT
IMPACTS AND SAFETY ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY-
DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE TUE/WED BEFORE THE RIDGE
BECOMES WELL-ESTABLISHED...AND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...PRECIP
CHANCES AT OR BELOW CLIMO DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM SUNDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: THUNDER MOVING THROUGH KRDU IS ON A WEAKENING
TREND AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STILL AFFECT THE TRIAD SITES LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE AT 5-
10 KTS. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS IN RAIN
COOLED AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING TOO MANY
RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION CONDITIONS. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM: CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE
COMING DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE PATTERN A
LITTLE MORE. STILL LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION..ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 060108
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
907 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE
VA AND NC BORDER TODAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT
NORTHWARD WITH THE MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES ON MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SUNDAY...

EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 6 PM AS ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME SLIGHT TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG OVER SECTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED WEST-TO-EAST NEAR THE VA BORDER.
IN ADDITION...NOTED SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE OVER OUR SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AS A 925-850MB TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SW. THIS TROUGH A
LIKELY REFLECTION OF A SHEAR AXIS LIFTING SLOWLY N-NE WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS EXITING MID TN INTO EASTERN KY AT MID
AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 DEG C/KM
OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND D-CAPE VALUES APPROACHING A 1K J/KG
IN VICINITY OR EAST OF I-95. THUS...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS 35-45KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 50KTS
POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE/DIMINISH AFTER 9 PM THOUGH COULD SEE
A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORM PERSIST PAST MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BETTER
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. PARTIAL CLEARING ONCE THE CONVECTION DISSIPATES
WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW A LOW STRATUS LAYER TO DEVELOP IN AREAS PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK. THUS EARLY MONDAY MAY START OUT BROKEN-OVERCAST SKIES
FOR MOST FOLKS. MIN TEMPS 68-73.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

A 850-700MB TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH HEATING OF THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE ENHANCED
OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN IN VICINITY OF THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RELATIVELY WEAK AND AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY ALSO WEAK SO SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT/DURATION OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...AND WHEN/EXTENT OF CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. FAVOR MAX
TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MOS CONSENSUS (UPPER 80S FAR NORTH-
NW TO NEAR 90-LOWER 90S SOUTH).

MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DIMINISH/DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR
OR TWO OF SUNSET. WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTING AWAY FROM
OUR REGION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS 67-73.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...INCLUDING
FRONTS...REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RUN
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S. THE LATEST GFS AND THE 00Z EURO GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST TEMPS MAY
TRY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS MAKE
SENSE GIVEN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THAT TIME. AS SUCH...WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAMP UP ADVERTISING HEAT
IMPACTS AND SAFETY ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY-
DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE TUE/WED BEFORE THE RIDGE
BECOMES WELL-ESTABLISHED...AND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...PRECIP
CHANCES AT OR BELOW CLIMO DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM SUNDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: THUNDER MOVING THROUGH KRDU IS ON A WEAKENING
TREND AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STILL AFFECT THE TRIAD SITES LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE AT 5-
10 KTS. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS IN RAIN
COOLED AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING TOO MANY
RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION CONDITIONS. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM: CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE
COMING DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE PATTERN A
LITTLE MORE. STILL LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION..ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 060108
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
907 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE
VA AND NC BORDER TODAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT
NORTHWARD WITH THE MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES ON MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SUNDAY...

EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 6 PM AS ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME SLIGHT TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG OVER SECTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED WEST-TO-EAST NEAR THE VA BORDER.
IN ADDITION...NOTED SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE OVER OUR SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AS A 925-850MB TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SW. THIS TROUGH A
LIKELY REFLECTION OF A SHEAR AXIS LIFTING SLOWLY N-NE WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS EXITING MID TN INTO EASTERN KY AT MID
AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 DEG C/KM
OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND D-CAPE VALUES APPROACHING A 1K J/KG
IN VICINITY OR EAST OF I-95. THUS...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS 35-45KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 50KTS
POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE/DIMINISH AFTER 9 PM THOUGH COULD SEE
A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORM PERSIST PAST MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BETTER
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. PARTIAL CLEARING ONCE THE CONVECTION DISSIPATES
WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW A LOW STRATUS LAYER TO DEVELOP IN AREAS PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK. THUS EARLY MONDAY MAY START OUT BROKEN-OVERCAST SKIES
FOR MOST FOLKS. MIN TEMPS 68-73.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

A 850-700MB TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH HEATING OF THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE ENHANCED
OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN IN VICINITY OF THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RELATIVELY WEAK AND AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY ALSO WEAK SO SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT/DURATION OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...AND WHEN/EXTENT OF CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. FAVOR MAX
TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MOS CONSENSUS (UPPER 80S FAR NORTH-
NW TO NEAR 90-LOWER 90S SOUTH).

MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DIMINISH/DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR
OR TWO OF SUNSET. WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTING AWAY FROM
OUR REGION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS 67-73.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...INCLUDING
FRONTS...REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RUN
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S. THE LATEST GFS AND THE 00Z EURO GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST TEMPS MAY
TRY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS MAKE
SENSE GIVEN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THAT TIME. AS SUCH...WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAMP UP ADVERTISING HEAT
IMPACTS AND SAFETY ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY-
DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE TUE/WED BEFORE THE RIDGE
BECOMES WELL-ESTABLISHED...AND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...PRECIP
CHANCES AT OR BELOW CLIMO DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM SUNDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: THUNDER MOVING THROUGH KRDU IS ON A WEAKENING
TREND AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STILL AFFECT THE TRIAD SITES LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE AT 5-
10 KTS. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS IN RAIN
COOLED AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING TOO MANY
RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION CONDITIONS. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM: CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE
COMING DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE PATTERN A
LITTLE MORE. STILL LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION..ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 060108
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
907 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE
VA AND NC BORDER TODAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT
NORTHWARD WITH THE MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES ON MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SUNDAY...

EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 6 PM AS ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME SLIGHT TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG OVER SECTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED WEST-TO-EAST NEAR THE VA BORDER.
IN ADDITION...NOTED SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE OVER OUR SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AS A 925-850MB TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SW. THIS TROUGH A
LIKELY REFLECTION OF A SHEAR AXIS LIFTING SLOWLY N-NE WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS EXITING MID TN INTO EASTERN KY AT MID
AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 DEG C/KM
OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND D-CAPE VALUES APPROACHING A 1K J/KG
IN VICINITY OR EAST OF I-95. THUS...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS 35-45KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 50KTS
POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE/DIMINISH AFTER 9 PM THOUGH COULD SEE
A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORM PERSIST PAST MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BETTER
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. PARTIAL CLEARING ONCE THE CONVECTION DISSIPATES
WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW A LOW STRATUS LAYER TO DEVELOP IN AREAS PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK. THUS EARLY MONDAY MAY START OUT BROKEN-OVERCAST SKIES
FOR MOST FOLKS. MIN TEMPS 68-73.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

A 850-700MB TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH HEATING OF THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE ENHANCED
OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN IN VICINITY OF THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RELATIVELY WEAK AND AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY ALSO WEAK SO SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT/DURATION OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...AND WHEN/EXTENT OF CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. FAVOR MAX
TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MOS CONSENSUS (UPPER 80S FAR NORTH-
NW TO NEAR 90-LOWER 90S SOUTH).

MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DIMINISH/DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR
OR TWO OF SUNSET. WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTING AWAY FROM
OUR REGION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS 67-73.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...INCLUDING
FRONTS...REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RUN
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S. THE LATEST GFS AND THE 00Z EURO GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST TEMPS MAY
TRY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS MAKE
SENSE GIVEN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THAT TIME. AS SUCH...WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAMP UP ADVERTISING HEAT
IMPACTS AND SAFETY ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY-
DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE TUE/WED BEFORE THE RIDGE
BECOMES WELL-ESTABLISHED...AND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...PRECIP
CHANCES AT OR BELOW CLIMO DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM SUNDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: THUNDER MOVING THROUGH KRDU IS ON A WEAKENING
TREND AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STILL AFFECT THE TRIAD SITES LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS GENERALLY VARIABLE AT 5-
10 KTS. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS IN RAIN
COOLED AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING TOO MANY
RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION CONDITIONS. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PREVAIL AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM: CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE
COMING DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE PATTERN A
LITTLE MORE. STILL LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION..ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 051922
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE
VA AND NC BORDER TODAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT
NORTHWARD WITH THE MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES ON MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SUNDAY...

EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 6 PM AS ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME SLIGHT TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG OVER SECTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED WEST-TO-EAST NEAR THE VA BORDER.
IN ADDITION...NOTED SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE OVER OUR SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AS A 925-850MB TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SW. THIS TROUGH A
LIKELY REFLECTION OF A SHEAR AXIS LIFTING SLOWLY N-NE WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS EXITING MID TN INTO EASTERN KY AT MID
AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 DEG C/KM
OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND D-CAPE VALUES APPROACHING A 1K J/KG
IN VICINITY OR EAST OF I-95. THUS...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS 35-45KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 50KTS
POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE/DIMINISH AFTER 9 PM THOUGH COULD SEE
A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORM PERSIST PAST MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BETTER
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. PARTIAL CLEARING ONCE THE CONVECTION DISSIPATES
WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW A LOW STRATUS LAYER TO DEVELOP IN AREAS PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK. THUS EARLY MONDAY MAY START OUT BROKEN-OVERCAST SKIES
FOR MOST FOLKS. MIN TEMPS 68-73.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

A 850-700MB TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH HEATING OF THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE ENHANCED
OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN IN VICINITY OF THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RELATIVELY WEAK AND AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY ALSO WEAK SO SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPS DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT/DURATION OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...AND WHEN/EXTENT OF CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. FAVOR MAX
TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MOS CONSENSUS (UPPER 80S FAR NORTH-
NW TO NEAR 90-LOWER 90S SOUTH).

MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL AGAIN DIMINISH/DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR
OR TWO OF SUNSET. WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTING AWAY FROM
OUR REGION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. MIN TEMPS 67-73.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...INCLUDING
FRONTS...REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RUN
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S. THE LATEST GFS AND THE 00Z EURO GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST TEMPS MAY
TRY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS MAKE
SENSE GIVEN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THAT TIME. AS SUCH...WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAMP UP ADVERTISING HEAT
IMPACTS AND SAFETY ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY-
DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE TUE/WED BEFORE THE RIDGE
BECOMES WELL-ESTABLISHED...AND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...PRECIP
CHANCES AT OR BELOW CLIMO DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...

A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE APPROACH AND
CROSSING OVERHEAD OF A FEW DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY AFFECT OPERATIONS AT
ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 01Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS 25-35KTS.

AFTER 01Z...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
OVERNIGHT...AND MAINLY AFTER 08Z...COULD SEE AREAS OF LOW STRATUS
DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 10Z. CONFIDENCE ABOUT
50/50 SO HAVE MENTIONED A TEMPO GROUP FOR CEILINGS. IF GUIDANCE OR
SATELLITE IMAGERY POINTS TOWARD ITS OCCURRENCE...THEN A PREDOMINATE
GROUP MAY BE NECESSARY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND A LITTLE LESS OF A
CHANCE ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY AND
EXPAND EAST TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS WEATHER FEATURE MAY LIMIT
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO NO MORE THAN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION..WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 051855
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE
VA AND NC BORDER TODAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT
NORTHWARD WITH THE MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES ON MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SUNDAY...

EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 6 PM AS ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME SLIGHT TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG OVER SECTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED WEST-TO-EAST NEAR THE VA BORDER.
IN ADDITION...NOTED SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE OVER OUR SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AS A 925-850MB TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SW. THIS TROUGH A
LIKELY REFLECTION OF A SHEAR AXIS LIFTING SLOWLY N-NE WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS EXITING MID TN INTO EASTERN KY AT MID
AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 DEG C/KM
OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND D-CAPE VALUES APPROACHING A 1K J/KG
IN VICINITY OR EAST OF I-95. THUS...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS 35-45KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 50KTS
POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE/DIMINISH AFTER 9 PM THOUGH COULD SEE
A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORM PERSIST PAST MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BETTER
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. PARTIAL CLEARING ONCE THE CONVECTION DISSIPATES
WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW A LOW STRATUS LAYER TO DEVELOP IN AREAS PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK. THUS EARLY MONDAY MAY START OUT BROKEN-OVERCAST SKIES
FOR MOST FOLKS. MIN TEMPS 68-73.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NE AND DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD...TAKING WITH IT THE ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE NW OF CENTRAL NC. THE LIFTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE FRONT INITIALLY OVER SOUTHERN VA TO
RETREAT NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...LEAVING BEHIND A
LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL VA AND THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT AND WSW LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF SUN...THOUGH UP TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...CLOSE TO WHERE THE
MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR CLT. LOWS AGAIN AROUND 70...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...INCLUDING
FRONTS...REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RUN
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S. THE LATEST GFS AND THE 00Z EURO GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST TEMPS MAY
TRY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS MAKE
SENSE GIVEN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THAT TIME. AS SUCH...WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAMP UP ADVERTISING HEAT
IMPACTS AND SAFETY ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY-
DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE TUE/WED BEFORE THE RIDGE
BECOMES WELL-ESTABLISHED...AND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...PRECIP
CHANCES AT OR BELOW CLIMO DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...

A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE APPROACH AND
CROSSING OVERHEAD OF A FEW DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY AFFECT OPERATIONS AT
ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 01Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS 25-35KTS.

AFTER 01Z...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
OVERNIGHT...AND MAINLY AFTER 08Z...COULD SEE AREAS OF LOW STRATUS
DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 10Z. CONFIDENCE ABOUT
50/50 SO HAVE MENTIONED A TEMPO GROUP FOR CEILINGS. IF GUIDANCE OR
SATELLITE IMAGERY POINTS TOWARD ITS OCCURRENCE...THEN A PREDOMINATE
GROUP MAY BE NECESSARY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND A LITTLE LESS OF A
CHANCE ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY AND
EXPAND EAST TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS WEATHER FEATURE MAY LIMIT
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO NO MORE THAN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION..WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 051855
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE
VA AND NC BORDER TODAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT
NORTHWARD WITH THE MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES ON MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM SUNDAY...

EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 6 PM AS ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME SLIGHT TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG OVER SECTIONS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED WEST-TO-EAST NEAR THE VA BORDER.
IN ADDITION...NOTED SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE OVER OUR SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AS A 925-850MB TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SW. THIS TROUGH A
LIKELY REFLECTION OF A SHEAR AXIS LIFTING SLOWLY N-NE WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS EXITING MID TN INTO EASTERN KY AT MID
AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 DEG C/KM
OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND D-CAPE VALUES APPROACHING A 1K J/KG
IN VICINITY OR EAST OF I-95. THUS...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS 35-45KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 50KTS
POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE/DIMINISH AFTER 9 PM THOUGH COULD SEE
A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORM PERSIST PAST MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH SECTIONS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BETTER
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. PARTIAL CLEARING ONCE THE CONVECTION DISSIPATES
WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW A LOW STRATUS LAYER TO DEVELOP IN AREAS PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK. THUS EARLY MONDAY MAY START OUT BROKEN-OVERCAST SKIES
FOR MOST FOLKS. MIN TEMPS 68-73.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NE AND DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD...TAKING WITH IT THE ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE NW OF CENTRAL NC. THE LIFTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE FRONT INITIALLY OVER SOUTHERN VA TO
RETREAT NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...LEAVING BEHIND A
LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL VA AND THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT AND WSW LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF SUN...THOUGH UP TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...CLOSE TO WHERE THE
MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR CLT. LOWS AGAIN AROUND 70...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...INCLUDING
FRONTS...REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RUN
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S. THE LATEST GFS AND THE 00Z EURO GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST TEMPS MAY
TRY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS MAKE
SENSE GIVEN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THAT TIME. AS SUCH...WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAMP UP ADVERTISING HEAT
IMPACTS AND SAFETY ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY-
DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE TUE/WED BEFORE THE RIDGE
BECOMES WELL-ESTABLISHED...AND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...PRECIP
CHANCES AT OR BELOW CLIMO DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...

A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE APPROACH AND
CROSSING OVERHEAD OF A FEW DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY AFFECT OPERATIONS AT
ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 01Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS 25-35KTS.

AFTER 01Z...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
OVERNIGHT...AND MAINLY AFTER 08Z...COULD SEE AREAS OF LOW STRATUS
DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 10Z. CONFIDENCE ABOUT
50/50 SO HAVE MENTIONED A TEMPO GROUP FOR CEILINGS. IF GUIDANCE OR
SATELLITE IMAGERY POINTS TOWARD ITS OCCURRENCE...THEN A PREDOMINATE
GROUP MAY BE NECESSARY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND A LITTLE LESS OF A
CHANCE ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY AND
EXPAND EAST TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS WEATHER FEATURE MAY LIMIT
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO NO MORE THAN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION..WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 051830
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE
VA AND NC BORDER TODAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT
NORTHWARD WITH THE MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES ON MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM SUNDAY...

JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...NAMELY TO
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

WELL DEFINED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPICTED IN 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THIS
FEATURE WILL LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NC...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.4-1.7 INCHES.
IN ADDITION...INSOLATION...THOUGH LIMITED FOR A TIME DUE TO A DECK
OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SLIGHT-MODERATE
SFC INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS
GOOD SPEED CONVERGENCE (10-15KTS) OVER SC IN TO SOUTHERN NC...MAINLY
AIMED AT OUR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES. BASED ON APPROACH OF A
VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM THE WEST-SW THIS AFTERNOON...BELIEVE THAT
CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED
SFC FRONT DRAPED WEST-TO-EAST ALONG THE VA BORDER. BY 00Z...MAXIMUM
INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD EXTEND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE
CAROLINAS SO EXPECT STORMS TO MIGRATE INTO THIS REGION BY EARLY
EVENING.

FOR NOW...CONTENT WITH LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT
STORMS WILL BE CLUSTERED OVER A PARTICULAR AREA FOR A FEW
HOURS...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE NEEDED. EARLY MORNING MESO
ANALYSIS DEPICTS MARGINAL BULK SHEAR (25-30KTS) NEAR OUR WESTERN
PERIPHERY...AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES 9-9.5 DEG C OVER
OUR SE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IN THE HWO WITH THE MAIN THREAT WIND
GUST UP TO 60KTS.

TEMPS WARMING SMARTLY ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL
PLAIN AT MID MORNING. DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING THE REGION
LATE MORNING-ERLY AFTERNOON SHOULD TEMPER WARMING A BIT. IF
NOT...MAY NEED TO ADJUST MAX TEMPS IN THE NE PIEDMONT TO NEAR
90...AND LOWER 90S IN THE KFAY-KGSB VICINITY.

TONIGHT...PRESENCE OF A SHEAR AXIS NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. MAY
SEE AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOP PRIOR TO DAYBREAK ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG THOUGH VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2 MILES MOST
PLACES. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NE AND DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD...TAKING WITH IT THE ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE NW OF CENTRAL NC. THE LIFTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE FRONT INITIALLY OVER SOUTHERN VA TO
RETREAT NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...LEAVING BEHIND A
LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL VA AND THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT AND WSW LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF SUN...THOUGH UP TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...CLOSE TO WHERE THE
MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR CLT. LOWS AGAIN AROUND 70...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...INCLUDING
FRONTS...REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RUN
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S. THE LATEST GFS AND THE 00Z EURO GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST TEMPS MAY
TRY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS MAKE
SENSE GIVEN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THAT TIME. AS SUCH...WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAMP UP ADVERTISING HEAT
IMPACTS AND SAFETY ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY-
DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE TUE/WED BEFORE THE RIDGE
BECOMES WELL-ESTABLISHED...AND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...PRECIP
CHANCES AT OR BELOW CLIMO DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...

A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE APPROACH AND
CROSSING OVERHEAD OF A FEW DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY AFFECT OPERATIONS AT
ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 01Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS 25-35KTS.

AFTER 01Z...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
OVERNIGHT...AND MAINLY AFTER 08Z...COULD SEE AREAS OF LOW STRATUS
DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 10Z. CONFIDENCE ABOUT
50/50 SO HAVE MENTIONED A TEMPO GROUP FOR CEILINGS. IF GUIDANCE OR
SATELLITE IMAGERY POINTS TOWARD ITS OCCURRENCE...THEN A PREDOMINATE
GROUP MAY BE NECESSARY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND A LITTLE LESS OF A
CHANCE ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY AND
EXPAND EAST TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS WEATHER FEATURE MAY LIMIT
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO NO MORE THAN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION..WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 051830
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE
VA AND NC BORDER TODAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT
NORTHWARD WITH THE MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES ON MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM SUNDAY...

JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...NAMELY TO
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

WELL DEFINED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPICTED IN 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THIS
FEATURE WILL LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NC...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.4-1.7 INCHES.
IN ADDITION...INSOLATION...THOUGH LIMITED FOR A TIME DUE TO A DECK
OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SLIGHT-MODERATE
SFC INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS
GOOD SPEED CONVERGENCE (10-15KTS) OVER SC IN TO SOUTHERN NC...MAINLY
AIMED AT OUR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES. BASED ON APPROACH OF A
VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM THE WEST-SW THIS AFTERNOON...BELIEVE THAT
CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED
SFC FRONT DRAPED WEST-TO-EAST ALONG THE VA BORDER. BY 00Z...MAXIMUM
INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD EXTEND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE
CAROLINAS SO EXPECT STORMS TO MIGRATE INTO THIS REGION BY EARLY
EVENING.

FOR NOW...CONTENT WITH LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT
STORMS WILL BE CLUSTERED OVER A PARTICULAR AREA FOR A FEW
HOURS...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE NEEDED. EARLY MORNING MESO
ANALYSIS DEPICTS MARGINAL BULK SHEAR (25-30KTS) NEAR OUR WESTERN
PERIPHERY...AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES 9-9.5 DEG C OVER
OUR SE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IN THE HWO WITH THE MAIN THREAT WIND
GUST UP TO 60KTS.

TEMPS WARMING SMARTLY ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL
PLAIN AT MID MORNING. DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING THE REGION
LATE MORNING-ERLY AFTERNOON SHOULD TEMPER WARMING A BIT. IF
NOT...MAY NEED TO ADJUST MAX TEMPS IN THE NE PIEDMONT TO NEAR
90...AND LOWER 90S IN THE KFAY-KGSB VICINITY.

TONIGHT...PRESENCE OF A SHEAR AXIS NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. MAY
SEE AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOP PRIOR TO DAYBREAK ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG THOUGH VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2 MILES MOST
PLACES. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NE AND DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD...TAKING WITH IT THE ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE NW OF CENTRAL NC. THE LIFTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE FRONT INITIALLY OVER SOUTHERN VA TO
RETREAT NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...LEAVING BEHIND A
LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL VA AND THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT AND WSW LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF SUN...THOUGH UP TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...CLOSE TO WHERE THE
MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR CLT. LOWS AGAIN AROUND 70...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...INCLUDING
FRONTS...REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RUN
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S. THE LATEST GFS AND THE 00Z EURO GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST TEMPS MAY
TRY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS MAKE
SENSE GIVEN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THAT TIME. AS SUCH...WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAMP UP ADVERTISING HEAT
IMPACTS AND SAFETY ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY-
DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE TUE/WED BEFORE THE RIDGE
BECOMES WELL-ESTABLISHED...AND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...PRECIP
CHANCES AT OR BELOW CLIMO DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...

A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE APPROACH AND
CROSSING OVERHEAD OF A FEW DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY AFFECT OPERATIONS AT
ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 01Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS 25-35KTS.

AFTER 01Z...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
OVERNIGHT...AND MAINLY AFTER 08Z...COULD SEE AREAS OF LOW STRATUS
DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 10Z. CONFIDENCE ABOUT
50/50 SO HAVE MENTIONED A TEMPO GROUP FOR CEILINGS. IF GUIDANCE OR
SATELLITE IMAGERY POINTS TOWARD ITS OCCURRENCE...THEN A PREDOMINATE
GROUP MAY BE NECESSARY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND A LITTLE LESS OF A
CHANCE ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY AND
EXPAND EAST TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS WEATHER FEATURE MAY LIMIT
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO NO MORE THAN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION..WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 051830
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE
VA AND NC BORDER TODAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT
NORTHWARD WITH THE MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES ON MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM SUNDAY...

JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...NAMELY TO
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

WELL DEFINED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPICTED IN 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THIS
FEATURE WILL LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NC...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.4-1.7 INCHES.
IN ADDITION...INSOLATION...THOUGH LIMITED FOR A TIME DUE TO A DECK
OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SLIGHT-MODERATE
SFC INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS
GOOD SPEED CONVERGENCE (10-15KTS) OVER SC IN TO SOUTHERN NC...MAINLY
AIMED AT OUR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES. BASED ON APPROACH OF A
VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM THE WEST-SW THIS AFTERNOON...BELIEVE THAT
CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED
SFC FRONT DRAPED WEST-TO-EAST ALONG THE VA BORDER. BY 00Z...MAXIMUM
INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD EXTEND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE
CAROLINAS SO EXPECT STORMS TO MIGRATE INTO THIS REGION BY EARLY
EVENING.

FOR NOW...CONTENT WITH LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT
STORMS WILL BE CLUSTERED OVER A PARTICULAR AREA FOR A FEW
HOURS...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE NEEDED. EARLY MORNING MESO
ANALYSIS DEPICTS MARGINAL BULK SHEAR (25-30KTS) NEAR OUR WESTERN
PERIPHERY...AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES 9-9.5 DEG C OVER
OUR SE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IN THE HWO WITH THE MAIN THREAT WIND
GUST UP TO 60KTS.

TEMPS WARMING SMARTLY ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL
PLAIN AT MID MORNING. DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING THE REGION
LATE MORNING-ERLY AFTERNOON SHOULD TEMPER WARMING A BIT. IF
NOT...MAY NEED TO ADJUST MAX TEMPS IN THE NE PIEDMONT TO NEAR
90...AND LOWER 90S IN THE KFAY-KGSB VICINITY.

TONIGHT...PRESENCE OF A SHEAR AXIS NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. MAY
SEE AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOP PRIOR TO DAYBREAK ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG THOUGH VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2 MILES MOST
PLACES. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NE AND DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD...TAKING WITH IT THE ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE NW OF CENTRAL NC. THE LIFTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE FRONT INITIALLY OVER SOUTHERN VA TO
RETREAT NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...LEAVING BEHIND A
LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL VA AND THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT AND WSW LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF SUN...THOUGH UP TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...CLOSE TO WHERE THE
MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR CLT. LOWS AGAIN AROUND 70...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...INCLUDING
FRONTS...REMAINING TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RUN
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW-MID
70S. THE LATEST GFS AND THE 00Z EURO GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST TEMPS MAY
TRY TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS MAKE
SENSE GIVEN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THAT TIME. AS SUCH...WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAMP UP ADVERTISING HEAT
IMPACTS AND SAFETY ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR
PRECIP CHANCES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY-
DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE TUE/WED BEFORE THE RIDGE
BECOMES WELL-ESTABLISHED...AND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL...PRECIP
CHANCES AT OR BELOW CLIMO DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...

A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE APPROACH AND
CROSSING OVERHEAD OF A FEW DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY AFFECT OPERATIONS AT
ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 01Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS 25-35KTS.

AFTER 01Z...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
OVERNIGHT...AND MAINLY AFTER 08Z...COULD SEE AREAS OF LOW STRATUS
DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 10Z. CONFIDENCE ABOUT
50/50 SO HAVE MENTIONED A TEMPO GROUP FOR CEILINGS. IF GUIDANCE OR
SATELLITE IMAGERY POINTS TOWARD ITS OCCURRENCE...THEN A PREDOMINATE
GROUP MAY BE NECESSARY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND A LITTLE LESS OF A
CHANCE ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY AND
EXPAND EAST TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS WEATHER FEATURE MAY LIMIT
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO NO MORE THAN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION..WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 051729
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE
VA AND NC BORDER TODAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT
NORTHWARD WITH THE MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES ON MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM SUNDAY...

JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...NAMELY TO
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

WELL DEFINED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPICTED IN 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THIS
FEATURE WILL LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NC...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.4-1.7 INCHES.
IN ADDITION...INSOLATION...THOUGH LIMITED FOR A TIME DUE TO A DECK
OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SLIGHT-MODERATE
SFC INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS
GOOD SPEED CONVERGENCE (10-15KTS) OVER SC IN TO SOUTHERN NC...MAINLY
AIMED AT OUR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES. BASED ON APPROACH OF A
VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM THE WEST-SW THIS AFTERNOON...BELIEVE THAT
CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED
SFC FRONT DRAPED WEST-TO-EAST ALONG THE VA BORDER. BY 00Z...MAXIMUM
INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD EXTEND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE
CAROLINAS SO EXPECT STORMS TO MIGRATE INTO THIS REGION BY EARLY
EVENING.

FOR NOW...CONTENT WITH LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT
STORMS WILL BE CLUSTERED OVER A PARTICULAR AREA FOR A FEW
HOURS...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE NEEDED. EARLY MORNING MESO
ANALYSIS DEPICTS MARGINAL BULK SHEAR (25-30KTS) NEAR OUR WESTERN
PERIPHERY...AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES 9-9.5 DEG C OVER
OUR SE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IN THE HWO WITH THE MAIN THREAT WIND
GUST UP TO 60KTS.

TEMPS WARMING SMARTLY ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL
PLAIN AT MID MORNING. DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING THE REGION
LATE MORNING-ERLY AFTERNOON SHOULD TEMPER WARMING A BIT. IF
NOT...MAY NEED TO ADJUST MAX TEMPS IN THE NE PIEDMONT TO NEAR
90...AND LOWER 90S IN THE KFAY-KGSB VICINITY.

TONIGHT...PRESENCE OF A SHEAR AXIS NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. MAY
SEE AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOP PRIOR TO DAYBREAK ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG THOUGH VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2 MILES MOST
PLACES. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NE AND DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD...TAKING WITH IT THE ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE NW OF CENTRAL NC. THE LIFTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE FRONT INITIALLY OVER SOUTHERN VA TO
RETREAT NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...LEAVING BEHIND A
LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL VA AND THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT AND WSW LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF SUN...THOUGH UP TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...CLOSE TO WHERE THE
MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR CLT. LOWS AGAIN AROUND 70...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...THE PATTERN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US WILL SHIFT BACK INTO A ORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
REGIME...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US.
MEANWHILE...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL ALLOW A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND TO SOME
DEGREE KEEP HEIGHTS ALOFT FROM RISING TOO QUICKLY OVER THE
CAROLINAS.  THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE STRONGER...AND WARMER...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE....EXPECT
THE FRONT TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. A LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES TRACKING WEST TO EAST NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING AS THE FRONT
EFFECTIVELY TRIED TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.  THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE RIDGE EVOLVES...AND THE MODELS ARE NOT
IN FULL AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW HEIGHTS TO FALL
AGAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST.  FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW END CHANCE POPS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS
INCREASINGLY IN THE 90-95 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...

A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE APPROACH AND
CROSSING OVERHEAD OF A FEW DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY AFFECT OPERATIONS AT
ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 01Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS 25-35KTS.

AFTER 01Z...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
OVERNIGHT...AND MAINLY AFTER 08Z...COULD SEE AREAS OF LOW STRATUS
DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 10Z. CONFIDENCE ABOUT
50/50 SO HAVE MENTIONED A TEMPO GROUP FOR CEILINGS. IF GUIDANCE OR
SATELLITE IMAGERY POINTS TOWARD ITS OCCURRENCE...THEN A PREDOMINATE
GROUP MAY BE NECESSARY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND A LITTLE LESS OF A
CHANCE ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY AND
EXPAND EAST TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS WEATHER FEATURE MAY LIMIT
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO NO MORE THAN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION..WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 051729
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE
VA AND NC BORDER TODAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT
NORTHWARD WITH THE MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES ON MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM SUNDAY...

JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...NAMELY TO
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

WELL DEFINED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPICTED IN 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THIS
FEATURE WILL LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NC...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.4-1.7 INCHES.
IN ADDITION...INSOLATION...THOUGH LIMITED FOR A TIME DUE TO A DECK
OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SLIGHT-MODERATE
SFC INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS
GOOD SPEED CONVERGENCE (10-15KTS) OVER SC IN TO SOUTHERN NC...MAINLY
AIMED AT OUR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES. BASED ON APPROACH OF A
VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM THE WEST-SW THIS AFTERNOON...BELIEVE THAT
CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED
SFC FRONT DRAPED WEST-TO-EAST ALONG THE VA BORDER. BY 00Z...MAXIMUM
INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD EXTEND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE
CAROLINAS SO EXPECT STORMS TO MIGRATE INTO THIS REGION BY EARLY
EVENING.

FOR NOW...CONTENT WITH LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT
STORMS WILL BE CLUSTERED OVER A PARTICULAR AREA FOR A FEW
HOURS...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE NEEDED. EARLY MORNING MESO
ANALYSIS DEPICTS MARGINAL BULK SHEAR (25-30KTS) NEAR OUR WESTERN
PERIPHERY...AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES 9-9.5 DEG C OVER
OUR SE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IN THE HWO WITH THE MAIN THREAT WIND
GUST UP TO 60KTS.

TEMPS WARMING SMARTLY ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL
PLAIN AT MID MORNING. DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING THE REGION
LATE MORNING-ERLY AFTERNOON SHOULD TEMPER WARMING A BIT. IF
NOT...MAY NEED TO ADJUST MAX TEMPS IN THE NE PIEDMONT TO NEAR
90...AND LOWER 90S IN THE KFAY-KGSB VICINITY.

TONIGHT...PRESENCE OF A SHEAR AXIS NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. MAY
SEE AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOP PRIOR TO DAYBREAK ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG THOUGH VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2 MILES MOST
PLACES. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NE AND DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD...TAKING WITH IT THE ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE NW OF CENTRAL NC. THE LIFTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE FRONT INITIALLY OVER SOUTHERN VA TO
RETREAT NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...LEAVING BEHIND A
LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL VA AND THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT AND WSW LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF SUN...THOUGH UP TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...CLOSE TO WHERE THE
MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR CLT. LOWS AGAIN AROUND 70...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...THE PATTERN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US WILL SHIFT BACK INTO A ORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
REGIME...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US.
MEANWHILE...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL ALLOW A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND TO SOME
DEGREE KEEP HEIGHTS ALOFT FROM RISING TOO QUICKLY OVER THE
CAROLINAS.  THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE STRONGER...AND WARMER...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE....EXPECT
THE FRONT TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. A LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES TRACKING WEST TO EAST NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING AS THE FRONT
EFFECTIVELY TRIED TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.  THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE RIDGE EVOLVES...AND THE MODELS ARE NOT
IN FULL AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW HEIGHTS TO FALL
AGAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST.  FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW END CHANCE POPS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS
INCREASINGLY IN THE 90-95 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...

A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE APPROACH AND
CROSSING OVERHEAD OF A FEW DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY AFFECT OPERATIONS AT
ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 01Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS 25-35KTS.

AFTER 01Z...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
OVERNIGHT...AND MAINLY AFTER 08Z...COULD SEE AREAS OF LOW STRATUS
DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 10Z. CONFIDENCE ABOUT
50/50 SO HAVE MENTIONED A TEMPO GROUP FOR CEILINGS. IF GUIDANCE OR
SATELLITE IMAGERY POINTS TOWARD ITS OCCURRENCE...THEN A PREDOMINATE
GROUP MAY BE NECESSARY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND A LITTLE LESS OF A
CHANCE ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY AND
EXPAND EAST TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS WEATHER FEATURE MAY LIMIT
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO NO MORE THAN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION..WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 051729
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE
VA AND NC BORDER TODAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT
NORTHWARD WITH THE MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES ON MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM SUNDAY...

JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...NAMELY TO
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

WELL DEFINED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPICTED IN 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THIS
FEATURE WILL LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NC...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.4-1.7 INCHES.
IN ADDITION...INSOLATION...THOUGH LIMITED FOR A TIME DUE TO A DECK
OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SLIGHT-MODERATE
SFC INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS
GOOD SPEED CONVERGENCE (10-15KTS) OVER SC IN TO SOUTHERN NC...MAINLY
AIMED AT OUR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES. BASED ON APPROACH OF A
VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM THE WEST-SW THIS AFTERNOON...BELIEVE THAT
CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED
SFC FRONT DRAPED WEST-TO-EAST ALONG THE VA BORDER. BY 00Z...MAXIMUM
INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD EXTEND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE
CAROLINAS SO EXPECT STORMS TO MIGRATE INTO THIS REGION BY EARLY
EVENING.

FOR NOW...CONTENT WITH LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT
STORMS WILL BE CLUSTERED OVER A PARTICULAR AREA FOR A FEW
HOURS...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE NEEDED. EARLY MORNING MESO
ANALYSIS DEPICTS MARGINAL BULK SHEAR (25-30KTS) NEAR OUR WESTERN
PERIPHERY...AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES 9-9.5 DEG C OVER
OUR SE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IN THE HWO WITH THE MAIN THREAT WIND
GUST UP TO 60KTS.

TEMPS WARMING SMARTLY ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL
PLAIN AT MID MORNING. DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING THE REGION
LATE MORNING-ERLY AFTERNOON SHOULD TEMPER WARMING A BIT. IF
NOT...MAY NEED TO ADJUST MAX TEMPS IN THE NE PIEDMONT TO NEAR
90...AND LOWER 90S IN THE KFAY-KGSB VICINITY.

TONIGHT...PRESENCE OF A SHEAR AXIS NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. MAY
SEE AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOP PRIOR TO DAYBREAK ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG THOUGH VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2 MILES MOST
PLACES. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NE AND DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD...TAKING WITH IT THE ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE NW OF CENTRAL NC. THE LIFTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE FRONT INITIALLY OVER SOUTHERN VA TO
RETREAT NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...LEAVING BEHIND A
LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL VA AND THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT AND WSW LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF SUN...THOUGH UP TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...CLOSE TO WHERE THE
MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR CLT. LOWS AGAIN AROUND 70...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...THE PATTERN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US WILL SHIFT BACK INTO A ORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
REGIME...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US.
MEANWHILE...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL ALLOW A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND TO SOME
DEGREE KEEP HEIGHTS ALOFT FROM RISING TOO QUICKLY OVER THE
CAROLINAS.  THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE STRONGER...AND WARMER...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE....EXPECT
THE FRONT TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. A LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES TRACKING WEST TO EAST NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING AS THE FRONT
EFFECTIVELY TRIED TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.  THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE RIDGE EVOLVES...AND THE MODELS ARE NOT
IN FULL AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW HEIGHTS TO FALL
AGAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST.  FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW END CHANCE POPS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS
INCREASINGLY IN THE 90-95 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...

A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE APPROACH AND
CROSSING OVERHEAD OF A FEW DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY AFFECT OPERATIONS AT
ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 01Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS 25-35KTS.

AFTER 01Z...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
OVERNIGHT...AND MAINLY AFTER 08Z...COULD SEE AREAS OF LOW STRATUS
DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 10Z. CONFIDENCE ABOUT
50/50 SO HAVE MENTIONED A TEMPO GROUP FOR CEILINGS. IF GUIDANCE OR
SATELLITE IMAGERY POINTS TOWARD ITS OCCURRENCE...THEN A PREDOMINATE
GROUP MAY BE NECESSARY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND A LITTLE LESS OF A
CHANCE ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY AND
EXPAND EAST TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS WEATHER FEATURE MAY LIMIT
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO NO MORE THAN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION..WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 051729
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE
VA AND NC BORDER TODAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT
NORTHWARD WITH THE MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES ON MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM SUNDAY...

JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...NAMELY TO
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

WELL DEFINED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPICTED IN 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THIS
FEATURE WILL LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NC...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.4-1.7 INCHES.
IN ADDITION...INSOLATION...THOUGH LIMITED FOR A TIME DUE TO A DECK
OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SLIGHT-MODERATE
SFC INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS
GOOD SPEED CONVERGENCE (10-15KTS) OVER SC IN TO SOUTHERN NC...MAINLY
AIMED AT OUR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES. BASED ON APPROACH OF A
VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM THE WEST-SW THIS AFTERNOON...BELIEVE THAT
CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED
SFC FRONT DRAPED WEST-TO-EAST ALONG THE VA BORDER. BY 00Z...MAXIMUM
INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD EXTEND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE
CAROLINAS SO EXPECT STORMS TO MIGRATE INTO THIS REGION BY EARLY
EVENING.

FOR NOW...CONTENT WITH LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT
STORMS WILL BE CLUSTERED OVER A PARTICULAR AREA FOR A FEW
HOURS...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE NEEDED. EARLY MORNING MESO
ANALYSIS DEPICTS MARGINAL BULK SHEAR (25-30KTS) NEAR OUR WESTERN
PERIPHERY...AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES 9-9.5 DEG C OVER
OUR SE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IN THE HWO WITH THE MAIN THREAT WIND
GUST UP TO 60KTS.

TEMPS WARMING SMARTLY ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL
PLAIN AT MID MORNING. DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING THE REGION
LATE MORNING-ERLY AFTERNOON SHOULD TEMPER WARMING A BIT. IF
NOT...MAY NEED TO ADJUST MAX TEMPS IN THE NE PIEDMONT TO NEAR
90...AND LOWER 90S IN THE KFAY-KGSB VICINITY.

TONIGHT...PRESENCE OF A SHEAR AXIS NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. MAY
SEE AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOP PRIOR TO DAYBREAK ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG THOUGH VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2 MILES MOST
PLACES. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NE AND DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD...TAKING WITH IT THE ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE NW OF CENTRAL NC. THE LIFTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE FRONT INITIALLY OVER SOUTHERN VA TO
RETREAT NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...LEAVING BEHIND A
LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL VA AND THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT AND WSW LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF SUN...THOUGH UP TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...CLOSE TO WHERE THE
MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR CLT. LOWS AGAIN AROUND 70...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...THE PATTERN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US WILL SHIFT BACK INTO A ORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
REGIME...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US.
MEANWHILE...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL ALLOW A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND TO SOME
DEGREE KEEP HEIGHTS ALOFT FROM RISING TOO QUICKLY OVER THE
CAROLINAS.  THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE STRONGER...AND WARMER...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE....EXPECT
THE FRONT TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. A LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES TRACKING WEST TO EAST NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING AS THE FRONT
EFFECTIVELY TRIED TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.  THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE RIDGE EVOLVES...AND THE MODELS ARE NOT
IN FULL AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW HEIGHTS TO FALL
AGAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST.  FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW END CHANCE POPS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS
INCREASINGLY IN THE 90-95 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...

A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE APPROACH AND
CROSSING OVERHEAD OF A FEW DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THIS SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY AFFECT OPERATIONS AT
ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 01Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS 25-35KTS.

AFTER 01Z...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
OVERNIGHT...AND MAINLY AFTER 08Z...COULD SEE AREAS OF LOW STRATUS
DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 10Z. CONFIDENCE ABOUT
50/50 SO HAVE MENTIONED A TEMPO GROUP FOR CEILINGS. IF GUIDANCE OR
SATELLITE IMAGERY POINTS TOWARD ITS OCCURRENCE...THEN A PREDOMINATE
GROUP MAY BE NECESSARY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
TUESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE A THREAT FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND A LITTLE LESS OF A
CHANCE ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING
STRATUS.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY AND
EXPAND EAST TOWARD OUR REGION. THIS WEATHER FEATURE MAY LIMIT
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO NO MORE THAN 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION..WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 051448
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1050 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE
VA AND NC BORDER TODAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT
NORTHWARD WITH THE MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES ON MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM SUNDAY...

JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...NAMELY TO
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

WELL DEFINED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPICTED IN 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THIS
FEATURE WILL LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NC...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.4-1.7 INCHES.
IN ADDITION...INSOLATION...THOUGH LIMITED FOR A TIME DUE TO A DECK
OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SLIGHT-MODERATE
SFC INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS
GOOD SPEED CONVERGENCE (10-15KTS) OVER SC IN TO SOUTHERN NC...MAINLY
AIMED AT OUR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES. BASED ON APPROACH OF A
VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM THE WEST-SW THIS AFTERNOON...BELIEVE THAT
CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED
SFC FRONT DRAPED WEST-TO-EAST ALONG THE VA BORDER. BY 00Z...MAXIMUM
INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD EXTEND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE
CAROLINAS SO EXPECT STORMS TO MIGRATE INTO THIS REGION BY EARLY
EVENING.

FOR NOW...CONTENT WITH LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT
STORMS WILL BE CLUSTERED OVER A PARTICULAR AREA FOR A FEW
HOURS...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE NEEDED. EARLY MORNING MESO
ANALYSIS DEPICTS MARGINAL BULK SHEAR (25-30KTS) NEAR OUR WESTERN
PERIPHERY...AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES 9-9.5 DEG C OVER
OUR SE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IN THE HWO WITH THE MAIN THREAT WIND
GUST UP TO 60KTS.

TEMPS WARMING SMARTLY ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL
PLAIN AT MID MORNING. DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING THE REGION
LATE MORNING-ERLY AFTERNOON SHOULD TEMPER WARMING A BIT. IF
NOT...MAY NEED TO ADJUST MAX TEMPS IN THE NE PIEDMONT TO NEAR
90...AND LOWER 90S IN THE KFAY-KGSB VICINITY.

TONIGHT...PRESENCE OF A SHEAR AXIS NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. MAY
SEE AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOP PRIOR TO DAYBREAK ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG THOUGH VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2 MILES MOST
PLACES. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NE AND DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD...TAKING WITH IT THE ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE NW OF CENTRAL NC. THE LIFTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE FRONT INITIALLY OVER SOUTHERN VA TO
RETREAT NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...LEAVING BEHIND A
LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL VA AND THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT AND WSW LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF SUN...THOUGH UP TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...CLOSE TO WHERE THE
MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR CLT. LOWS AGAIN AROUND 70...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...THE PATTERN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US WILL SHIFT BACK INTO A ORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
REGIME...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US.
MEANWHILE...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL ALLOW A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND TO SOME
DEGREE KEEP HEIGHTS ALOFT FROM RISING TOO QUICKLY OVER THE
CAROLINAS.  THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE STRONGER...AND WARMER...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE....EXPECT
THE FRONT TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. A LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES TRACKING WEST TO EAST NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING AS THE FRONT
EFFECTIVELY TRIED TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.  THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE RIDGE EVOLVES...AND THE MODELS ARE NOT
IN FULL AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW HEIGHTS TO FALL
AGAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST.  FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW END CHANCE POPS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS
INCREASINGLY IN THE 90-95 RANGE.



 &&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 750 AM SUNDAY...

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
CENTRAL NC...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL
ZONE IN THE VICINITY OF THE VA/NC STATE LINE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE INITIALLY MOST PROBABLE AT
TRIAD TAF SITES AND RDU...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE FRONT AND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. THE TROUGH ALOFT...AND PRECEDING WEAK IMPULSES IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER A NORTH TO SOUTH-
ORIENTED BAND OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...
PARTICULARLY WHERE RAIN OCCURS PRIOR...AND AT KFAY WHERE THE NAM AND
SREF INDICATE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND
DIRECT A MOIST AND WEAKLY PERTURBED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NC
THROUGH TUE. ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON-EARLY
NIGHTTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS --AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS--
WILL RESULT...WITH THE RELATIVE BETTER CHANCES ON MON. SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING WILL THEN EXPAND NORTH THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
ASSOCIATED MAINLY DRY AND WARMER/HOT CONDITIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION..26





000
FXUS62 KRAH 051448
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1050 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE
VA AND NC BORDER TODAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL RETREAT
NORTHWARD WITH THE MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES ON MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM SUNDAY...

JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...NAMELY TO
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

WELL DEFINED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPICTED IN 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THIS
FEATURE WILL LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NC...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERE ACROSS OUR
REGION REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.4-1.7 INCHES.
IN ADDITION...INSOLATION...THOUGH LIMITED FOR A TIME DUE TO A DECK
OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SLIGHT-MODERATE
SFC INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS
GOOD SPEED CONVERGENCE (10-15KTS) OVER SC IN TO SOUTHERN NC...MAINLY
AIMED AT OUR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES. BASED ON APPROACH OF A
VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM THE WEST-SW THIS AFTERNOON...BELIEVE THAT
CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED
SFC FRONT DRAPED WEST-TO-EAST ALONG THE VA BORDER. BY 00Z...MAXIMUM
INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD EXTEND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE
CAROLINAS SO EXPECT STORMS TO MIGRATE INTO THIS REGION BY EARLY
EVENING.

FOR NOW...CONTENT WITH LOW END LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT
STORMS WILL BE CLUSTERED OVER A PARTICULAR AREA FOR A FEW
HOURS...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE NEEDED. EARLY MORNING MESO
ANALYSIS DEPICTS MARGINAL BULK SHEAR (25-30KTS) NEAR OUR WESTERN
PERIPHERY...AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES 9-9.5 DEG C OVER
OUR SE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IN THE HWO WITH THE MAIN THREAT WIND
GUST UP TO 60KTS.

TEMPS WARMING SMARTLY ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL
PLAIN AT MID MORNING. DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CROSSING THE REGION
LATE MORNING-ERLY AFTERNOON SHOULD TEMPER WARMING A BIT. IF
NOT...MAY NEED TO ADJUST MAX TEMPS IN THE NE PIEDMONT TO NEAR
90...AND LOWER 90S IN THE KFAY-KGSB VICINITY.

TONIGHT...PRESENCE OF A SHEAR AXIS NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. MAY
SEE AREAS OF STRATUS DEVELOP PRIOR TO DAYBREAK ALONG WITH AREAS OF
FOG THOUGH VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2 MILES MOST
PLACES. MIN TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NE AND DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD...TAKING WITH IT THE ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE NW OF CENTRAL NC. THE LIFTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE FRONT INITIALLY OVER SOUTHERN VA TO
RETREAT NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...LEAVING BEHIND A
LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL VA AND THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT AND WSW LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF SUN...THOUGH UP TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...CLOSE TO WHERE THE
MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR CLT. LOWS AGAIN AROUND 70...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...THE PATTERN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US WILL SHIFT BACK INTO A ORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
REGIME...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US.
MEANWHILE...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL ALLOW A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND TO SOME
DEGREE KEEP HEIGHTS ALOFT FROM RISING TOO QUICKLY OVER THE
CAROLINAS.  THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE STRONGER...AND WARMER...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE....EXPECT
THE FRONT TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. A LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES TRACKING WEST TO EAST NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING AS THE FRONT
EFFECTIVELY TRIED TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.  THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE RIDGE EVOLVES...AND THE MODELS ARE NOT
IN FULL AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW HEIGHTS TO FALL
AGAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST.  FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW END CHANCE POPS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS
INCREASINGLY IN THE 90-95 RANGE.



 &&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 750 AM SUNDAY...

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
CENTRAL NC...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL
ZONE IN THE VICINITY OF THE VA/NC STATE LINE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE INITIALLY MOST PROBABLE AT
TRIAD TAF SITES AND RDU...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE FRONT AND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. THE TROUGH ALOFT...AND PRECEDING WEAK IMPULSES IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER A NORTH TO SOUTH-
ORIENTED BAND OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...
PARTICULARLY WHERE RAIN OCCURS PRIOR...AND AT KFAY WHERE THE NAM AND
SREF INDICATE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND
DIRECT A MOIST AND WEAKLY PERTURBED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NC
THROUGH TUE. ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON-EARLY
NIGHTTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS --AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS--
WILL RESULT...WITH THE RELATIVE BETTER CHANCES ON MON. SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING WILL THEN EXPAND NORTH THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
ASSOCIATED MAINLY DRY AND WARMER/HOT CONDITIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION..26




000
FXUS62 KRAH 051158
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
758 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE VA
AND NC BORDER TODAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH THE MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 755 AM SUNDAY...

A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN TN THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY NE TO A POSITION OVER EASTERN KY OR
SOUTHERN OH BY 12Z MON...SLOWED BY UPSTREAM SMALLER-SCALE IMPULSES
AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMA FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FROM
THE PLAINS STATES INTO-AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THESE SMALLER
SCALE DISTURBANCES...INCLUDING AN MCV OVER THE SC UPSTATE AT
08Z...WILL BE DIRECTED AROUND THE TROUGH IN SW FLOW ALOFT...ACROSS
NC. THESE DISTURBANCES...INCLUDING THE SC MCV THAT IS FORECAST TO
LIFT THROUGH THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 12-18Z...WILL
BE MIGRATING THROUGH A FIELD OF OTHERWISE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. NEAR TERM NWP GUIDANCE HAS
ALSO LATCHED ON TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN AL THAT IS
FORECAST TO PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO THE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING PEAK HEATING; AND THIS FEATURE MAY BE THE PRIMARY
IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS AT 12Z...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT --A
DEEP ONE THAT EXTENDED THROUGH THE 925-850 MB LAYER PER REGIONAL VWP
DATA-- EXTENDED EAST THROUGH SW AND SOUTHERN VA...FROM A 1016 MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR NASHVILLE TN. THE MODELS INDICATE THE LOW WILL
DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY...WHILE THE FRONT
GENERALLY REMAINS NEAR THE VA/NC STATE LINE...THOUGH LIKELY
MODULATED SOUTHWARD BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM STORMS THAT FORM
ALONG...AND/OR MOVE TOWARD...IT. A LEE TROUGH...MEANWHILE...WILL
EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE APPROACHING LOW...THROUGH THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS TO EASTERN GA.

HI-RES SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ARCS/BANDS OF MULTI-
CELL CONVECTION WILL PIVOT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE FIRST OF
WHICH WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV AND/OR THE
DISTURBANCE OVER AL...ALL OF WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AS THEY LIFT NE THROUGH A DIURNALLY-DESTABILIZING
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE PIEDMONT AND NEARS/CONCENTRATES ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS ARE APT TO FIRE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS PROBABLE LEAD ACTIVITY...WITH THE RELATIVE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT...IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE FRONT AND WEAK INFLUENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THERE TOO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE APT TO
LINGER TONIGHT FOR THE SAME REASONING..THOUGH WITH AN OVERALL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

HIGHS IN THE 80S - WARMEST NEAR 90 DEGREES OVER THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NE AND DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD...TAKING WITH IT THE ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE NW OF CENTRAL NC. THE LIFTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE FRONT INITIALLY OVER SOUTHERN VA TO
RETREAT NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...LEAVING BEHIND A
LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL VA AND THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT AND WSW LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF SUN...THOUGH UP TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...CLOSE TO WHERE THE
MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR CLT. LOWS AGAIN AROUND 70...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...THE PATTERN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US WILL SHIFT BACK INTO A ORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
REGIME...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US.
MEANWHILE...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL ALLOW A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND TO SOME
DEGREE KEEP HEIGHTS ALOFT FROM RISING TOO QUICKLY OVER THE
CAROLINAS.  THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE STRONGER...AND WARMER...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE....EXPECT
THE FRONT TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. A LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES TRACKING WEST TO EAST NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING AS THE FRONT
EFFECTIVELY TRIED TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.  THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE RIDGE EVOLVES...AND THE MODELS ARENT
IN FULL AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW HEIGHTS TO FALL
AGAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST.  FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW END CHANCE POPS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS
INCREASINGLY IN THE 90-95 RANGE.



 &&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 750 AM SUNDAY...

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
CENTRAL NC...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL
ZONE IN THE VICINITY OF THE VA/NC STATE LINE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE INITIALLY MOST PROBABLE AT
TRIAD TAF SITES AND RDU...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE FRONT AND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. THE TROUGH ALOFT...AND PRECEDING WEAK IMPULSES IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER A NORTH TO SOUTH-
ORIENTED BAND OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...
PARTICULARLY WHERE RAIN OCCURS PRIOR...AND AT KFAY WHERE THE NAM AND
SREF INDICATE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND
DIRECT A MOIST AND WEAKLY PERTURBED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NC
THROUGH TUE. ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON-EARLY
NIGHTTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS --AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS--
WILL RESULT...WITH THE RELATIVE BETTER CHANCES ON MON. SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING WILL THEN EXPAND NORTH THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
ASSOCIATED MAINLY DRY AND WARMER/HOT CONDITIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION..26




000
FXUS62 KRAH 051158
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
758 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE VA
AND NC BORDER TODAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH THE MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 755 AM SUNDAY...

A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN TN THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY NE TO A POSITION OVER EASTERN KY OR
SOUTHERN OH BY 12Z MON...SLOWED BY UPSTREAM SMALLER-SCALE IMPULSES
AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMA FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FROM
THE PLAINS STATES INTO-AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THESE SMALLER
SCALE DISTURBANCES...INCLUDING AN MCV OVER THE SC UPSTATE AT
08Z...WILL BE DIRECTED AROUND THE TROUGH IN SW FLOW ALOFT...ACROSS
NC. THESE DISTURBANCES...INCLUDING THE SC MCV THAT IS FORECAST TO
LIFT THROUGH THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 12-18Z...WILL
BE MIGRATING THROUGH A FIELD OF OTHERWISE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. NEAR TERM NWP GUIDANCE HAS
ALSO LATCHED ON TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN AL THAT IS
FORECAST TO PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO THE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING PEAK HEATING; AND THIS FEATURE MAY BE THE PRIMARY
IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS AT 12Z...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT --A
DEEP ONE THAT EXTENDED THROUGH THE 925-850 MB LAYER PER REGIONAL VWP
DATA-- EXTENDED EAST THROUGH SW AND SOUTHERN VA...FROM A 1016 MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR NASHVILLE TN. THE MODELS INDICATE THE LOW WILL
DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY...WHILE THE FRONT
GENERALLY REMAINS NEAR THE VA/NC STATE LINE...THOUGH LIKELY
MODULATED SOUTHWARD BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM STORMS THAT FORM
ALONG...AND/OR MOVE TOWARD...IT. A LEE TROUGH...MEANWHILE...WILL
EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE APPROACHING LOW...THROUGH THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS TO EASTERN GA.

HI-RES SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ARCS/BANDS OF MULTI-
CELL CONVECTION WILL PIVOT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE FIRST OF
WHICH WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV AND/OR THE
DISTURBANCE OVER AL...ALL OF WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AS THEY LIFT NE THROUGH A DIURNALLY-DESTABILIZING
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE PIEDMONT AND NEARS/CONCENTRATES ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS ARE APT TO FIRE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS PROBABLE LEAD ACTIVITY...WITH THE RELATIVE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT...IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE FRONT AND WEAK INFLUENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THERE TOO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE APT TO
LINGER TONIGHT FOR THE SAME REASONING..THOUGH WITH AN OVERALL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

HIGHS IN THE 80S - WARMEST NEAR 90 DEGREES OVER THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NE AND DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD...TAKING WITH IT THE ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE NW OF CENTRAL NC. THE LIFTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE FRONT INITIALLY OVER SOUTHERN VA TO
RETREAT NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...LEAVING BEHIND A
LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL VA AND THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT AND WSW LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF SUN...THOUGH UP TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...CLOSE TO WHERE THE
MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR CLT. LOWS AGAIN AROUND 70...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...THE PATTERN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US WILL SHIFT BACK INTO A ORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
REGIME...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US.
MEANWHILE...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL ALLOW A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND TO SOME
DEGREE KEEP HEIGHTS ALOFT FROM RISING TOO QUICKLY OVER THE
CAROLINAS.  THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE STRONGER...AND WARMER...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE....EXPECT
THE FRONT TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. A LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES TRACKING WEST TO EAST NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING AS THE FRONT
EFFECTIVELY TRIED TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.  THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE RIDGE EVOLVES...AND THE MODELS ARENT
IN FULL AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW HEIGHTS TO FALL
AGAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST.  FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW END CHANCE POPS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS
INCREASINGLY IN THE 90-95 RANGE.



 &&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 750 AM SUNDAY...

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
CENTRAL NC...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL
ZONE IN THE VICINITY OF THE VA/NC STATE LINE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE INITIALLY MOST PROBABLE AT
TRIAD TAF SITES AND RDU...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE FRONT AND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. THE TROUGH ALOFT...AND PRECEDING WEAK IMPULSES IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER A NORTH TO SOUTH-
ORIENTED BAND OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...
PARTICULARLY WHERE RAIN OCCURS PRIOR...AND AT KFAY WHERE THE NAM AND
SREF INDICATE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND
DIRECT A MOIST AND WEAKLY PERTURBED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NC
THROUGH TUE. ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON-EARLY
NIGHTTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS --AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS--
WILL RESULT...WITH THE RELATIVE BETTER CHANCES ON MON. SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING WILL THEN EXPAND NORTH THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
ASSOCIATED MAINLY DRY AND WARMER/HOT CONDITIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION..26





000
FXUS62 KRAH 050840
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
439 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE VA
AND NC BORDER TODAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH THE MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...

A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN TN THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY NE TO A POSITION OVER EASTERN KY OR
SOUTHERN OH BY 12Z MON...SLOWED BY UPSTREAM SMALLER-SCALE IMPULSES
AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMA FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FROM
THE PLAINS STATES INTO-AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THESE SMALLER
SCALE DISTURBANCES...INCLUDING AN MCV OVER THE SC UPSTATE AT
08Z...WILL BE DIRECTED AROUND THE TROUGH IN SW FLOW ALOFT...ACROSS
NC. THESE DISTURBANCES...INCLUDING THE SC MCV THAT IS FORECAST TO
LIFT THROUGH THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 12-18Z...WILL
BE MIGRATING THROUGH A FIELD OF OTHERWISE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.   MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS
AT 08Z...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT --A DEEP ONE THAT EXTENDED THROUGH
THE 925-850 MB LAYER PER REGIONAL VWP DATA-- EXTENDED EAST THROUGH
SW AND SOUTHERN VA...FROM A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF
NASHVILLE TN. THE MODELS INDICATE THE LOW WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY...WHILE THE FRONT GENERALLY REMAINS NEAR
THE VA/NC STATE LINE...THOUGH LIKELY MODULATED SOUTHWARD BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM STORMS THAT FORM ALONG...AND/OR MOVE
TOWARD...IT. A LEE TROUGH...MEANWHILE...WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE
APPROACHING LOW...THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TO EASTERN GA.

HI-RES SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ARCS/BANDS OF MULTI-
CELL CONVECTION WILL PIVOT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE FIRST OF
WHICH WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV...AND WHICH
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS NE THROUGH A
DIURNALLY-DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
NEARS/CONCENTRATES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
STORMS ARE APT TO FIRE IN THE WAKE OF THIS PROBABLE LEAD
ACTIVITY...WITH THE RELATIVE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OVER THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE FRONT AND
WEAK INFLUENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE TOO...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE APT TO LINGER TONIGHT FOR THE SAME
REASONING..THOUGH WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.

HIGHS IN THE 80S - WARMEST NEAR 90 DEGREES OVER THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NE AND DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD...TAKING WITH IT THE ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE NW OF CENTRAL NC. THE LIFTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE FRONT INITIALLY OVER SOUTHERN VA TO
RETREAT NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...LEAVING BEHIND A
LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL VA AND THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT AND WSW LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF SUN...THOUGH UP TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...CLOSE TO WHERE THE
MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR CLT. LOWS AGAIN AROUND 70...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...THE PATTERN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US WILL SHIFT BACK INTO A ORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
REGIME...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US.
MEANWHILE...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL ALLOW A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND TO SOME
DEGREE KEEP HEIGHTS ALOFT FROM RISING TOO QUICKLY OVER THE
CAROLINAS.  THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE STRONGER...AND WARMER...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE....EXPECT
THE FRONT TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. A LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES TRACKING WEST TO EAST NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING AS THE FRONT
EFFECTIVELY TRIED TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.  THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE RIDGE EVOLVES...AND THE MODELS ARENT
IN FULL AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW HEIGHTS TO FALL
AGAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST.  FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW END CHANCE POPS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS
INCREASINGLY IN THE 90-95 RANGE.



 &&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SUNDAY...

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
CENTRAL NC...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO
SETTLE TO NEAR THE VA/NC STATE LINE LATER THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY MOST PROBABLE AT TRIAD TAF
SITES AND RDU...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE FRONT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THE TROUGH ALOFT...AND PRECEDING WEAK IMPULSES IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER A NORTH TO SOUTH-
ORIENTED BAND OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...THE HI-RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL (HRRR) SUGGESTS POCKETS
OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS WILL EXPAND FROM AL/GA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SC...AND INTO SOUTHERN NC (INCLUDING FAY) BETWEEN 10-15Z. ALTHOUGH
THE CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS VFR CONDITIONS AT
FAY AND ELSEWHERE...THE RECENT GOOD TRACK RECORD OF THE HRRR VERSUS
OTHER GUIDANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED; AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KFAY FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND
DIRECT A MOIST AND WEAKLY PERTURBED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NC
THROUGH TUE. ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON-EARLY
NIGHTTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS --AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS--
WILL RESULT...WITH THE RELATIVE BETTER CHANCES ON MON. SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING WILL THEN EXPAND NORTH THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
ASSOCIATED MAINLY DRY AND WARMER/HOT CONDITIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION..26




000
FXUS62 KRAH 050840
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
439 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE VA
AND NC BORDER TODAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH THE MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...

A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN TN THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY NE TO A POSITION OVER EASTERN KY OR
SOUTHERN OH BY 12Z MON...SLOWED BY UPSTREAM SMALLER-SCALE IMPULSES
AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMA FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FROM
THE PLAINS STATES INTO-AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THESE SMALLER
SCALE DISTURBANCES...INCLUDING AN MCV OVER THE SC UPSTATE AT
08Z...WILL BE DIRECTED AROUND THE TROUGH IN SW FLOW ALOFT...ACROSS
NC. THESE DISTURBANCES...INCLUDING THE SC MCV THAT IS FORECAST TO
LIFT THROUGH THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 12-18Z...WILL
BE MIGRATING THROUGH A FIELD OF OTHERWISE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.   MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS
AT 08Z...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT --A DEEP ONE THAT EXTENDED THROUGH
THE 925-850 MB LAYER PER REGIONAL VWP DATA-- EXTENDED EAST THROUGH
SW AND SOUTHERN VA...FROM A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF
NASHVILLE TN. THE MODELS INDICATE THE LOW WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY...WHILE THE FRONT GENERALLY REMAINS NEAR
THE VA/NC STATE LINE...THOUGH LIKELY MODULATED SOUTHWARD BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM STORMS THAT FORM ALONG...AND/OR MOVE
TOWARD...IT. A LEE TROUGH...MEANWHILE...WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE
APPROACHING LOW...THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TO EASTERN GA.

HI-RES SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ARCS/BANDS OF MULTI-
CELL CONVECTION WILL PIVOT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE FIRST OF
WHICH WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV...AND WHICH
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS NE THROUGH A
DIURNALLY-DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
NEARS/CONCENTRATES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
STORMS ARE APT TO FIRE IN THE WAKE OF THIS PROBABLE LEAD
ACTIVITY...WITH THE RELATIVE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OVER THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE FRONT AND
WEAK INFLUENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE TOO...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE APT TO LINGER TONIGHT FOR THE SAME
REASONING..THOUGH WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.

HIGHS IN THE 80S - WARMEST NEAR 90 DEGREES OVER THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NE AND DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD...TAKING WITH IT THE ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE NW OF CENTRAL NC. THE LIFTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE FRONT INITIALLY OVER SOUTHERN VA TO
RETREAT NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...LEAVING BEHIND A
LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL VA AND THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT AND WSW LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF SUN...THOUGH UP TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...CLOSE TO WHERE THE
MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR CLT. LOWS AGAIN AROUND 70...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...THE PATTERN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US WILL SHIFT BACK INTO A ORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
REGIME...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US.
MEANWHILE...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL ALLOW A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND TO SOME
DEGREE KEEP HEIGHTS ALOFT FROM RISING TOO QUICKLY OVER THE
CAROLINAS.  THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE STRONGER...AND WARMER...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE....EXPECT
THE FRONT TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. A LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES TRACKING WEST TO EAST NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING AS THE FRONT
EFFECTIVELY TRIED TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.  THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE RIDGE EVOLVES...AND THE MODELS ARENT
IN FULL AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW HEIGHTS TO FALL
AGAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST.  FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW END CHANCE POPS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS
INCREASINGLY IN THE 90-95 RANGE.



 &&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SUNDAY...

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
CENTRAL NC...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO
SETTLE TO NEAR THE VA/NC STATE LINE LATER THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY MOST PROBABLE AT TRIAD TAF
SITES AND RDU...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE FRONT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THE TROUGH ALOFT...AND PRECEDING WEAK IMPULSES IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER A NORTH TO SOUTH-
ORIENTED BAND OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...THE HI-RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL (HRRR) SUGGESTS POCKETS
OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS WILL EXPAND FROM AL/GA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SC...AND INTO SOUTHERN NC (INCLUDING FAY) BETWEEN 10-15Z. ALTHOUGH
THE CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS VFR CONDITIONS AT
FAY AND ELSEWHERE...THE RECENT GOOD TRACK RECORD OF THE HRRR VERSUS
OTHER GUIDANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED; AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KFAY FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND
DIRECT A MOIST AND WEAKLY PERTURBED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NC
THROUGH TUE. ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON-EARLY
NIGHTTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS --AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS--
WILL RESULT...WITH THE RELATIVE BETTER CHANCES ON MON. SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING WILL THEN EXPAND NORTH THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
ASSOCIATED MAINLY DRY AND WARMER/HOT CONDITIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION..26





000
FXUS62 KRAH 050840
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
439 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE VA
AND NC BORDER TODAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH THE MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...

A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN TN THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY NE TO A POSITION OVER EASTERN KY OR
SOUTHERN OH BY 12Z MON...SLOWED BY UPSTREAM SMALLER-SCALE IMPULSES
AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMA FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FROM
THE PLAINS STATES INTO-AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THESE SMALLER
SCALE DISTURBANCES...INCLUDING AN MCV OVER THE SC UPSTATE AT
08Z...WILL BE DIRECTED AROUND THE TROUGH IN SW FLOW ALOFT...ACROSS
NC. THESE DISTURBANCES...INCLUDING THE SC MCV THAT IS FORECAST TO
LIFT THROUGH THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 12-18Z...WILL
BE MIGRATING THROUGH A FIELD OF OTHERWISE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.   MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS
AT 08Z...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT --A DEEP ONE THAT EXTENDED THROUGH
THE 925-850 MB LAYER PER REGIONAL VWP DATA-- EXTENDED EAST THROUGH
SW AND SOUTHERN VA...FROM A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF
NASHVILLE TN. THE MODELS INDICATE THE LOW WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY...WHILE THE FRONT GENERALLY REMAINS NEAR
THE VA/NC STATE LINE...THOUGH LIKELY MODULATED SOUTHWARD BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM STORMS THAT FORM ALONG...AND/OR MOVE
TOWARD...IT. A LEE TROUGH...MEANWHILE...WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE
APPROACHING LOW...THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TO EASTERN GA.

HI-RES SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ARCS/BANDS OF MULTI-
CELL CONVECTION WILL PIVOT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE FIRST OF
WHICH WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV...AND WHICH
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS NE THROUGH A
DIURNALLY-DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
NEARS/CONCENTRATES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
STORMS ARE APT TO FIRE IN THE WAKE OF THIS PROBABLE LEAD
ACTIVITY...WITH THE RELATIVE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OVER THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE FRONT AND
WEAK INFLUENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE TOO...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE APT TO LINGER TONIGHT FOR THE SAME
REASONING..THOUGH WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.

HIGHS IN THE 80S - WARMEST NEAR 90 DEGREES OVER THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NE AND DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD...TAKING WITH IT THE ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE NW OF CENTRAL NC. THE LIFTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE FRONT INITIALLY OVER SOUTHERN VA TO
RETREAT NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...LEAVING BEHIND A
LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL VA AND THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT AND WSW LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF SUN...THOUGH UP TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...CLOSE TO WHERE THE
MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR CLT. LOWS AGAIN AROUND 70...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...THE PATTERN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US WILL SHIFT BACK INTO A ORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
REGIME...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US.
MEANWHILE...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL ALLOW A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND TO SOME
DEGREE KEEP HEIGHTS ALOFT FROM RISING TOO QUICKLY OVER THE
CAROLINAS.  THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE STRONGER...AND WARMER...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE....EXPECT
THE FRONT TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. A LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES TRACKING WEST TO EAST NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING AS THE FRONT
EFFECTIVELY TRIED TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.  THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE RIDGE EVOLVES...AND THE MODELS ARENT
IN FULL AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW HEIGHTS TO FALL
AGAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST.  FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW END CHANCE POPS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS
INCREASINGLY IN THE 90-95 RANGE.



 &&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SUNDAY...

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
CENTRAL NC...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO
SETTLE TO NEAR THE VA/NC STATE LINE LATER THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY MOST PROBABLE AT TRIAD TAF
SITES AND RDU...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE FRONT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THE TROUGH ALOFT...AND PRECEDING WEAK IMPULSES IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER A NORTH TO SOUTH-
ORIENTED BAND OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...THE HI-RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL (HRRR) SUGGESTS POCKETS
OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS WILL EXPAND FROM AL/GA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SC...AND INTO SOUTHERN NC (INCLUDING FAY) BETWEEN 10-15Z. ALTHOUGH
THE CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS VFR CONDITIONS AT
FAY AND ELSEWHERE...THE RECENT GOOD TRACK RECORD OF THE HRRR VERSUS
OTHER GUIDANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED; AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KFAY FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND
DIRECT A MOIST AND WEAKLY PERTURBED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NC
THROUGH TUE. ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON-EARLY
NIGHTTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS --AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS--
WILL RESULT...WITH THE RELATIVE BETTER CHANCES ON MON. SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING WILL THEN EXPAND NORTH THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
ASSOCIATED MAINLY DRY AND WARMER/HOT CONDITIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION..26




000
FXUS62 KRAH 050840
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
439 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE VA
AND NC BORDER TODAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN
RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH THE MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON MON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...

A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN TN THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY NE TO A POSITION OVER EASTERN KY OR
SOUTHERN OH BY 12Z MON...SLOWED BY UPSTREAM SMALLER-SCALE IMPULSES
AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMA FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FROM
THE PLAINS STATES INTO-AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THESE SMALLER
SCALE DISTURBANCES...INCLUDING AN MCV OVER THE SC UPSTATE AT
08Z...WILL BE DIRECTED AROUND THE TROUGH IN SW FLOW ALOFT...ACROSS
NC. THESE DISTURBANCES...INCLUDING THE SC MCV THAT IS FORECAST TO
LIFT THROUGH THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 12-18Z...WILL
BE MIGRATING THROUGH A FIELD OF OTHERWISE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.   MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS
AT 08Z...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT --A DEEP ONE THAT EXTENDED THROUGH
THE 925-850 MB LAYER PER REGIONAL VWP DATA-- EXTENDED EAST THROUGH
SW AND SOUTHERN VA...FROM A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF
NASHVILLE TN. THE MODELS INDICATE THE LOW WILL DRIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY...WHILE THE FRONT GENERALLY REMAINS NEAR
THE VA/NC STATE LINE...THOUGH LIKELY MODULATED SOUTHWARD BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM STORMS THAT FORM ALONG...AND/OR MOVE
TOWARD...IT. A LEE TROUGH...MEANWHILE...WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE
APPROACHING LOW...THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TO EASTERN GA.

HI-RES SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ARCS/BANDS OF MULTI-
CELL CONVECTION WILL PIVOT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE FIRST OF
WHICH WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV...AND WHICH
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS NE THROUGH A
DIURNALLY-DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
NEARS/CONCENTRATES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
STORMS ARE APT TO FIRE IN THE WAKE OF THIS PROBABLE LEAD
ACTIVITY...WITH THE RELATIVE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OVER THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE FRONT AND
WEAK INFLUENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE TOO...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE APT TO LINGER TONIGHT FOR THE SAME
REASONING..THOUGH WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.

HIGHS IN THE 80S - WARMEST NEAR 90 DEGREES OVER THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM SUNDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NE AND DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD...TAKING WITH IT THE ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE NW OF CENTRAL NC. THE LIFTING OUT OF THE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE FRONT INITIALLY OVER SOUTHERN VA TO
RETREAT NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...LEAVING BEHIND A
LEE/PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL VA AND THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS.
HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT AND WSW LOW LEVEL
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION OTHERWISE EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. HIGHS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF SUN...THOUGH UP TO A COUPLE OF
DEGREES HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...CLOSE TO WHERE THE
MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR CLT. LOWS AGAIN AROUND 70...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...THE PATTERN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US WILL SHIFT BACK INTO A ORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
REGIME...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US.
MEANWHILE...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL ALLOW A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND TO SOME
DEGREE KEEP HEIGHTS ALOFT FROM RISING TOO QUICKLY OVER THE
CAROLINAS.  THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE STRONGER...AND WARMER...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE....EXPECT
THE FRONT TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. A LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES TRACKING WEST TO EAST NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING AS THE FRONT
EFFECTIVELY TRIED TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.  THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE RIDGE EVOLVES...AND THE MODELS ARENT
IN FULL AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW HEIGHTS TO FALL
AGAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST.  FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW END CHANCE POPS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS
INCREASINGLY IN THE 90-95 RANGE.



 &&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SUNDAY...

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
CENTRAL NC...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO
SETTLE TO NEAR THE VA/NC STATE LINE LATER THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY MOST PROBABLE AT TRIAD TAF
SITES AND RDU...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE FRONT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THE TROUGH ALOFT...AND PRECEDING WEAK IMPULSES IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER A NORTH TO SOUTH-
ORIENTED BAND OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...THE HI-RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL (HRRR) SUGGESTS POCKETS
OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS WILL EXPAND FROM AL/GA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SC...AND INTO SOUTHERN NC (INCLUDING FAY) BETWEEN 10-15Z. ALTHOUGH
THE CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS VFR CONDITIONS AT
FAY AND ELSEWHERE...THE RECENT GOOD TRACK RECORD OF THE HRRR VERSUS
OTHER GUIDANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED; AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KFAY FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND
DIRECT A MOIST AND WEAKLY PERTURBED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NC
THROUGH TUE. ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON-EARLY
NIGHTTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS --AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS--
WILL RESULT...WITH THE RELATIVE BETTER CHANCES ON MON. SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING WILL THEN EXPAND NORTH THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
ASSOCIATED MAINLY DRY AND WARMER/HOT CONDITIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION..26





000
FXUS62 KRAH 050808
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
405 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND INTERACT WITH
A SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL WAVER ACROSS VA AND NC THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...

CONVECTION HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THIS EVENING.
MODEST INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) IS STILL DEPICTED ON THE SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS BUT CIN IS ON THE INCREASE. CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY PERSIST A BIT LONGER AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS HELPS TO FOCUS THE PRECIP. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ALSO LOCATED IN THIS VICINITY. THE SHEAR AXIS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH 06Z...HOWEVER ANOTHER VORT MAX IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM SW TN THROUGH 12Z.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
HAVE TOO MUCH INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA (EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT). NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE MOISTURE RICH AIR
MASS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY AMPLIFIES...CAUSING
HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION TO SLOWLY BUILD/EXPAND NORTHWARD. THIS WEAK
SUBSIDENCE MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SE COUNTIES. PERTURBATIONS ALOFT CROSSING WESTERN NC INTO
WESTERN VA WILL AID TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...LEADING TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. SINCE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON UPPER
SUPPORT...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE NW...TRENDING
TO SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE SE.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TREND WITH MID 80S NW
DUE TO MIXTURE OF SUN/CLOUDS TO AROUND 90 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...THE PATTERN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US WILL SHIFT BACK INTO A ORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
REGIME...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US.
MEANWHILE...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL ALLOW A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND TO SOME
DEGREE KEEP HEIGHTS ALOFT FROM RISING TOO QUICKLY OVER THE
CAROLINAS.  THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE STRONGER...AND WARMER...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE....EXPECT
THE FRONT TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. A LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES TRACKING WEST TO EAST NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING AS THE FRONT
EFFECTIVELY TRIED TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.  THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE RIDGE EVOLVES...AND THE MODELS ARENT
IN FULL AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW HEIGHTS TO FALL
AGAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST.  FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW END CHANCE POPS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS
INCREASINGLY IN THE 90-95 RANGE.



 &&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SUNDAY...

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
CENTRAL NC...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO
SETTLE TO NEAR THE VA/NC STATE LINE LATER THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY MOST PROBABLE AT TRIAD TAF
SITES AND RDU...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE FRONT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THE TROUGH ALOFT...AND PRECEDING WEAK IMPULSES IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER A NORTH TO SOUTH-
ORIENTED BAND OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...THE HI-RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL (HRRR) SUGGESTS POCKETS
OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS WILL EXPAND FROM AL/GA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SC...AND INTO SOUTHERN NC (INCLUDING FAY) BETWEEN 10-15Z. ALTHOUGH
THE CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS VFR CONDITIONS AT
FAY AND ELSEWHERE...THE RECENT GOOD TRACK RECORD OF THE HRRR VERSUS
OTHER GUIDANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED; AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KFAY FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND
DIRECT A MOIST AND WEAKLY PERTURBED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NC
THROUGH TUE. ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON-EARLY
NIGHTTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS --AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS--
WILL RESULT...WITH THE RELATIVE BETTER CHANCES ON MON. SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING WILL THEN EXPAND NORTH THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
ASSOCIATED MAINLY DRY AND WARMER/HOT CONDITIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION..26




000
FXUS62 KRAH 050808
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
405 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND INTERACT WITH
A SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL WAVER ACROSS VA AND NC THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...

CONVECTION HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THIS EVENING.
MODEST INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) IS STILL DEPICTED ON THE SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS BUT CIN IS ON THE INCREASE. CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY PERSIST A BIT LONGER AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS HELPS TO FOCUS THE PRECIP. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ALSO LOCATED IN THIS VICINITY. THE SHEAR AXIS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH 06Z...HOWEVER ANOTHER VORT MAX IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM SW TN THROUGH 12Z.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
HAVE TOO MUCH INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA (EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT). NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE MOISTURE RICH AIR
MASS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY AMPLIFIES...CAUSING
HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION TO SLOWLY BUILD/EXPAND NORTHWARD. THIS WEAK
SUBSIDENCE MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SE COUNTIES. PERTURBATIONS ALOFT CROSSING WESTERN NC INTO
WESTERN VA WILL AID TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...LEADING TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. SINCE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON UPPER
SUPPORT...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE NW...TRENDING
TO SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE SE.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TREND WITH MID 80S NW
DUE TO MIXTURE OF SUN/CLOUDS TO AROUND 90 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM SUNDAY...

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...THE PATTERN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US WILL SHIFT BACK INTO A ORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
REGIME...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US.
MEANWHILE...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL ALLOW A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND TO SOME
DEGREE KEEP HEIGHTS ALOFT FROM RISING TOO QUICKLY OVER THE
CAROLINAS.  THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE STRONGER...AND WARMER...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE....EXPECT
THE FRONT TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA. A LEE TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES TRACKING WEST TO EAST NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL FORCING AS THE FRONT
EFFECTIVELY TRIED TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.  THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE RIDGE EVOLVES...AND THE MODELS ARENT
IN FULL AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BUILD
WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW HEIGHTS TO FALL
AGAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST.  FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW END CHANCE POPS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS
INCREASINGLY IN THE 90-95 RANGE.



 &&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SUNDAY...

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
CENTRAL NC...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO
SETTLE TO NEAR THE VA/NC STATE LINE LATER THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY MOST PROBABLE AT TRIAD TAF
SITES AND RDU...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE FRONT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THE TROUGH ALOFT...AND PRECEDING WEAK IMPULSES IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER A NORTH TO SOUTH-
ORIENTED BAND OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...THE HI-RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL (HRRR) SUGGESTS POCKETS
OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS WILL EXPAND FROM AL/GA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SC...AND INTO SOUTHERN NC (INCLUDING FAY) BETWEEN 10-15Z. ALTHOUGH
THE CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS VFR CONDITIONS AT
FAY AND ELSEWHERE...THE RECENT GOOD TRACK RECORD OF THE HRRR VERSUS
OTHER GUIDANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED; AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KFAY FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND
DIRECT A MOIST AND WEAKLY PERTURBED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NC
THROUGH TUE. ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON-EARLY
NIGHTTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS --AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS--
WILL RESULT...WITH THE RELATIVE BETTER CHANCES ON MON. SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING WILL THEN EXPAND NORTH THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
ASSOCIATED MAINLY DRY AND WARMER/HOT CONDITIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION..26





000
FXUS62 KRAH 050630
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND INTERACT WITH
A SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL WAVER ACROSS VA AND NC THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...

CONVECTION HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THIS EVENING.
MODEST INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) IS STILL DEPICTED ON THE SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS BUT CIN IS ON THE INCREASE. CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY PERSIST A BIT LONGER AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS HELPS TO FOCUS THE PRECIP. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ALSO LOCATED IN THIS VICINITY. THE SHEAR AXIS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH 06Z...HOWEVER ANOTHER VORT MAX IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM SW TN THROUGH 12Z.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
HAVE TOO MUCH INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA (EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT). NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE MOISTURE RICH AIR
MASS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY AMPLIFIES...CAUSING
HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION TO SLOWLY BUILD/EXPAND NORTHWARD. THIS WEAK
SUBSIDENCE MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SE COUNTIES. PERTURBATIONS ALOFT CROSSING WESTERN NC INTO
WESTERN VA WILL AID TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...LEADING TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. SINCE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON UPPER
SUPPORT...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE NW...TRENDING
TO SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE SE.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TREND WITH MID 80S NW
DUE TO MIXTURE OF SUN/CLOUDS TO AROUND 90 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW INVOF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE TRAILING ASSOCIATED WEAK S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THUS... EXPECT
WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AGAIN... WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO ATTEMPT TO BUILD BACK
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HOWEVER... AS A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME FULLY EXERTING ITS DOMINATES ON
CENTRAL NC... WITH ANY ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT GENERALLY REMAINING
TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC INTO AT LEAST LATE WEEK. HOWEVER... AS
ANY SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS PASS TO THE NORTH
OF CENTRAL NC... EXPECT WE SHOULD STILL SEE A SHARPENING OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC DURING THIS THE MEDIUM RANGE...
HELPING TO YIELD ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY... WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD (UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S... WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW MID 70S BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SUNDAY...

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
CENTRAL NC...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO
SETTLE TO NEAR THE VA/NC STATE LINE LATER THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY MOST PROBABLE AT TRIAD TAF
SITES AND RDU...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE FRONT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THE TROUGH ALOFT...AND PRECEDING WEAK IMPULSES IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER A NORTH TO SOUTH-
ORIENTED BAND OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...THE HI-RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL (HRRR) SUGGESTS POCKETS
OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS WILL EXPAND FROM AL/GA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SC...AND INTO SOUTHERN NC (INCLUDING FAY) BETWEEN 10-15Z. ALTHOUGH
THE CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS VFR CONDITIONS AT
FAY AND ELSEWHERE...THE RECENT GOOD TRACK RECORD OF THE HRRR VERSUS
OTHER GUIDANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED; AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KFAY FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND
DIRECT A MOIST AND WEAKLY PERTURBED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NC
THROUGH TUE. ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON-EARLY
NIGHTTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS --AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS--
WILL RESULT...WITH THE RELATIVE BETTER CHANCES ON MON. SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING WILL THEN EXPAND NORTH THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
ASSOCIATED MAINLY DRY AND WARMER/HOT CONDITIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION..26




000
FXUS62 KRAH 050630
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND INTERACT WITH
A SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL WAVER ACROSS VA AND NC THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...

CONVECTION HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THIS EVENING.
MODEST INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) IS STILL DEPICTED ON THE SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS BUT CIN IS ON THE INCREASE. CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY PERSIST A BIT LONGER AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS HELPS TO FOCUS THE PRECIP. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ALSO LOCATED IN THIS VICINITY. THE SHEAR AXIS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH 06Z...HOWEVER ANOTHER VORT MAX IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM SW TN THROUGH 12Z.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
HAVE TOO MUCH INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA (EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT). NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE MOISTURE RICH AIR
MASS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY AMPLIFIES...CAUSING
HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION TO SLOWLY BUILD/EXPAND NORTHWARD. THIS WEAK
SUBSIDENCE MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SE COUNTIES. PERTURBATIONS ALOFT CROSSING WESTERN NC INTO
WESTERN VA WILL AID TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...LEADING TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. SINCE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON UPPER
SUPPORT...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE NW...TRENDING
TO SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE SE.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TREND WITH MID 80S NW
DUE TO MIXTURE OF SUN/CLOUDS TO AROUND 90 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW INVOF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE TRAILING ASSOCIATED WEAK S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THUS... EXPECT
WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AGAIN... WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO ATTEMPT TO BUILD BACK
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HOWEVER... AS A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME FULLY EXERTING ITS DOMINATES ON
CENTRAL NC... WITH ANY ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT GENERALLY REMAINING
TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC INTO AT LEAST LATE WEEK. HOWEVER... AS
ANY SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS PASS TO THE NORTH
OF CENTRAL NC... EXPECT WE SHOULD STILL SEE A SHARPENING OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC DURING THIS THE MEDIUM RANGE...
HELPING TO YIELD ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY... WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD (UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S... WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW MID 70S BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SUNDAY...

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
CENTRAL NC...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO
SETTLE TO NEAR THE VA/NC STATE LINE LATER THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY MOST PROBABLE AT TRIAD TAF
SITES AND RDU...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE FRONT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THE TROUGH ALOFT...AND PRECEDING WEAK IMPULSES IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER A NORTH TO SOUTH-
ORIENTED BAND OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...THE HI-RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL (HRRR) SUGGESTS POCKETS
OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS WILL EXPAND FROM AL/GA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SC...AND INTO SOUTHERN NC (INCLUDING FAY) BETWEEN 10-15Z. ALTHOUGH
THE CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS VFR CONDITIONS AT
FAY AND ELSEWHERE...THE RECENT GOOD TRACK RECORD OF THE HRRR VERSUS
OTHER GUIDANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED; AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KFAY FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND
DIRECT A MOIST AND WEAKLY PERTURBED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NC
THROUGH TUE. ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON-EARLY
NIGHTTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS --AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS--
WILL RESULT...WITH THE RELATIVE BETTER CHANCES ON MON. SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING WILL THEN EXPAND NORTH THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
ASSOCIATED MAINLY DRY AND WARMER/HOT CONDITIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION..26




000
FXUS62 KRAH 050630
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND INTERACT WITH
A SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL WAVER ACROSS VA AND NC THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...

CONVECTION HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THIS EVENING.
MODEST INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) IS STILL DEPICTED ON THE SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS BUT CIN IS ON THE INCREASE. CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY PERSIST A BIT LONGER AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS HELPS TO FOCUS THE PRECIP. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ALSO LOCATED IN THIS VICINITY. THE SHEAR AXIS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH 06Z...HOWEVER ANOTHER VORT MAX IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM SW TN THROUGH 12Z.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
HAVE TOO MUCH INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA (EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT). NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE MOISTURE RICH AIR
MASS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY AMPLIFIES...CAUSING
HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION TO SLOWLY BUILD/EXPAND NORTHWARD. THIS WEAK
SUBSIDENCE MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SE COUNTIES. PERTURBATIONS ALOFT CROSSING WESTERN NC INTO
WESTERN VA WILL AID TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...LEADING TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. SINCE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON UPPER
SUPPORT...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE NW...TRENDING
TO SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE SE.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TREND WITH MID 80S NW
DUE TO MIXTURE OF SUN/CLOUDS TO AROUND 90 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW INVOF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE TRAILING ASSOCIATED WEAK S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THUS... EXPECT
WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AGAIN... WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO ATTEMPT TO BUILD BACK
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HOWEVER... AS A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME FULLY EXERTING ITS DOMINATES ON
CENTRAL NC... WITH ANY ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT GENERALLY REMAINING
TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC INTO AT LEAST LATE WEEK. HOWEVER... AS
ANY SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS PASS TO THE NORTH
OF CENTRAL NC... EXPECT WE SHOULD STILL SEE A SHARPENING OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC DURING THIS THE MEDIUM RANGE...
HELPING TO YIELD ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY... WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD (UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S... WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW MID 70S BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SUNDAY...

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
CENTRAL NC...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO
SETTLE TO NEAR THE VA/NC STATE LINE LATER THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY MOST PROBABLE AT TRIAD TAF
SITES AND RDU...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE FRONT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THE TROUGH ALOFT...AND PRECEDING WEAK IMPULSES IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER A NORTH TO SOUTH-
ORIENTED BAND OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...THE HI-RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL (HRRR) SUGGESTS POCKETS
OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS WILL EXPAND FROM AL/GA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SC...AND INTO SOUTHERN NC (INCLUDING FAY) BETWEEN 10-15Z. ALTHOUGH
THE CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS VFR CONDITIONS AT
FAY AND ELSEWHERE...THE RECENT GOOD TRACK RECORD OF THE HRRR VERSUS
OTHER GUIDANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED; AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KFAY FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND
DIRECT A MOIST AND WEAKLY PERTURBED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NC
THROUGH TUE. ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON-EARLY
NIGHTTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS --AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS--
WILL RESULT...WITH THE RELATIVE BETTER CHANCES ON MON. SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING WILL THEN EXPAND NORTH THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
ASSOCIATED MAINLY DRY AND WARMER/HOT CONDITIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION..26





000
FXUS62 KRAH 050630
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND INTERACT WITH
A SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL WAVER ACROSS VA AND NC THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...

CONVECTION HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THIS EVENING.
MODEST INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) IS STILL DEPICTED ON THE SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS BUT CIN IS ON THE INCREASE. CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY PERSIST A BIT LONGER AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS HELPS TO FOCUS THE PRECIP. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ALSO LOCATED IN THIS VICINITY. THE SHEAR AXIS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH 06Z...HOWEVER ANOTHER VORT MAX IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM SW TN THROUGH 12Z.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
HAVE TOO MUCH INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA (EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT). NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE MOISTURE RICH AIR
MASS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY AMPLIFIES...CAUSING
HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION TO SLOWLY BUILD/EXPAND NORTHWARD. THIS WEAK
SUBSIDENCE MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SE COUNTIES. PERTURBATIONS ALOFT CROSSING WESTERN NC INTO
WESTERN VA WILL AID TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...LEADING TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. SINCE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON UPPER
SUPPORT...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE NW...TRENDING
TO SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE SE.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TREND WITH MID 80S NW
DUE TO MIXTURE OF SUN/CLOUDS TO AROUND 90 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW INVOF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE TRAILING ASSOCIATED WEAK S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THUS... EXPECT
WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AGAIN... WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO ATTEMPT TO BUILD BACK
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HOWEVER... AS A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME FULLY EXERTING ITS DOMINATES ON
CENTRAL NC... WITH ANY ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT GENERALLY REMAINING
TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC INTO AT LEAST LATE WEEK. HOWEVER... AS
ANY SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS PASS TO THE NORTH
OF CENTRAL NC... EXPECT WE SHOULD STILL SEE A SHARPENING OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC DURING THIS THE MEDIUM RANGE...
HELPING TO YIELD ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY... WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD (UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S... WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW MID 70S BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM SUNDAY...

GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
CENTRAL NC...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO
SETTLE TO NEAR THE VA/NC STATE LINE LATER THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS
THEN FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY MOST PROBABLE AT TRIAD TAF
SITES AND RDU...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BOTH THE FRONT AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. THE TROUGH ALOFT...AND PRECEDING WEAK IMPULSES IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER A NORTH TO SOUTH-
ORIENTED BAND OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

OTHERWISE...THE HI-RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL (HRRR) SUGGESTS POCKETS
OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS WILL EXPAND FROM AL/GA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SC...AND INTO SOUTHERN NC (INCLUDING FAY) BETWEEN 10-15Z. ALTHOUGH
THE CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS VFR CONDITIONS AT
FAY AND ELSEWHERE...THE RECENT GOOD TRACK RECORD OF THE HRRR VERSUS
OTHER GUIDANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED; AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KFAY FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND
DIRECT A MOIST AND WEAKLY PERTURBED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NC
THROUGH TUE. ABOVE AVERAGE PROBABILITIES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON-EARLY
NIGHTTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS --AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS--
WILL RESULT...WITH THE RELATIVE BETTER CHANCES ON MON. SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING WILL THEN EXPAND NORTH THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
ASSOCIATED MAINLY DRY AND WARMER/HOT CONDITIONS.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION..26





000
FXUS62 KRAH 050221
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1021 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND INTERACT WITH
A SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL WAVER ACROSS VA AND NC THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...

CONVECTION HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THIS EVENING.
MODEST INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) IS STILL DEPICTED ON THE SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS BUT CIN IS ON THE INCREASE. CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY PERSIST A BIT LONGER AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS HELPS TO FOCUS THE PRECIP. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ALSO LOCATED IN THIS VICINITY. THE SHEAR AXIS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH 06Z...HOWEVER ANOTHER VORT MAX IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM SW TN THROUGH 12Z.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
HAVE TOO MUCH INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA (EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT). NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE MOISTURE RICH AIR
MASS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY AMPLIFIES...CAUSING
HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION TO SLOWLY BUILD/EXPAND NORTHWARD. THIS WEAK
SUBSIDENCE MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SE COUNTIES. PERTURBATIONS ALOFT CROSSING WESTERN NC INTO
WESTERN VA WILL AID TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...LEADING TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. SINCE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON UPPER
SUPPORT...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE NW...TRENDING
TO SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE SE.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TREND WITH MID 80S NW
DUE TO MIXTURE OF SUN/CLOUDS TO AROUND 90 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW INVOF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE TRAILING ASSOCIATED WEAK S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THUS... EXPECT
WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AGAIN... WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO ATTEMPT TO BUILD BACK
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HOWEVER... AS A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME FULLY EXERTING ITS DOMINATES ON
CENTRAL NC... WITH ANY ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT GENERALLY REMAINING
TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC INTO AT LEAST LATE WEEK. HOWEVER... AS
ANY SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS PASS TO THE NORTH
OF CENTRAL NC... EXPECT WE SHOULD STILL SEE A SHARPENING OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC DURING THIS THE MEDIUM RANGE...
HELPING TO YIELD ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY... WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD (UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S... WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW MID 70S BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SHOWER IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI WILL MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY...OTHERWISE TAF SITES STAYING IN THE DRY WEATHER SO FAR.
STILL SOME GUSTS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON UP TO 20 KTS OR SO OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN AFTER DARK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BUT
COVERAGE IS LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...INCREASING IN COVERAGE NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS BUT
TERMINALS RECEIVING RAIN COULD SEE SOME BRIEF DROP IN CONDITIONS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LONG TERM: LONG TERM MODELS SHOW THE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOLDING OVER
CENTRAL NC...INDICATING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL AS ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION..ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 050221
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1021 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND INTERACT WITH
A SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL WAVER ACROSS VA AND NC THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...

CONVECTION HAS BEEN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THIS EVENING.
MODEST INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG) IS STILL DEPICTED ON THE SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS BUT CIN IS ON THE INCREASE. CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY PERSIST A BIT LONGER AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS HELPS TO FOCUS THE PRECIP. IN ADDITION...A
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ALSO LOCATED IN THIS VICINITY. THE SHEAR AXIS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH 06Z...HOWEVER ANOTHER VORT MAX IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM SW TN THROUGH 12Z.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST TO
HAVE TOO MUCH INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA (EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT). NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE MOISTURE RICH AIR
MASS...A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY AMPLIFIES...CAUSING
HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION TO SLOWLY BUILD/EXPAND NORTHWARD. THIS WEAK
SUBSIDENCE MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SE COUNTIES. PERTURBATIONS ALOFT CROSSING WESTERN NC INTO
WESTERN VA WILL AID TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...LEADING TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. SINCE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON UPPER
SUPPORT...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE NW...TRENDING
TO SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE SE.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TREND WITH MID 80S NW
DUE TO MIXTURE OF SUN/CLOUDS TO AROUND 90 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW INVOF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE TRAILING ASSOCIATED WEAK S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THUS... EXPECT
WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AGAIN... WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO ATTEMPT TO BUILD BACK
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HOWEVER... AS A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME FULLY EXERTING ITS DOMINATES ON
CENTRAL NC... WITH ANY ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT GENERALLY REMAINING
TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC INTO AT LEAST LATE WEEK. HOWEVER... AS
ANY SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS PASS TO THE NORTH
OF CENTRAL NC... EXPECT WE SHOULD STILL SEE A SHARPENING OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC DURING THIS THE MEDIUM RANGE...
HELPING TO YIELD ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY... WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD (UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S... WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW MID 70S BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SHOWER IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI WILL MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY...OTHERWISE TAF SITES STAYING IN THE DRY WEATHER SO FAR.
STILL SOME GUSTS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON UP TO 20 KTS OR SO OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN AFTER DARK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BUT
COVERAGE IS LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...INCREASING IN COVERAGE NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS BUT
TERMINALS RECEIVING RAIN COULD SEE SOME BRIEF DROP IN CONDITIONS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LONG TERM: LONG TERM MODELS SHOW THE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOLDING OVER
CENTRAL NC...INDICATING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL AS ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION..ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 042330
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND INTERACT WITH
A SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL WAVER ACROSS VA AND NC THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ON TWO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXES...ONE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND THE OTHER NEAR THE NW PIEDMONT. IN
BETWEEN...A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
CONVECTION THROUGH SUNSET. THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT MAY
PERSIST PAST SUNSET AS A SLOW MOVING SFC BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS.

BETTER DCAPE AND INVERTED V SIGNATURE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE SOUTH SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WITH
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS OF STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND MARBLE TO QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN.

BULK OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY AMPLIFIES...CAUSING
HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION TO SLOWLY BUILD/EXPAND NORTHWARD. THIS WEAK
SUBSIDENCE MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SE COUNTIES. PERTURBATIONS ALOFT CROSSING WESTERN NC INTO
WESTERN VA WILL AID TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...LEADING TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. SINCE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON UPPER
SUPPORT...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE NW...TRENDING
TO SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE SE.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TREND WITH MID 80S NW
DUE TO MIXTURE OF SUN/CLOUDS TO AROUND 90 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW INVOF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE TRAILING ASSOCIATED WEAK S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THUS... EXPECT
WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AGAIN... WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO ATTEMPT TO BUILD BACK
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HOWEVER... AS A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME FULLY EXERTING ITS DOMINATES ON
CENTRAL NC... WITH ANY ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT GENERALLY REMAINING
TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC INTO AT LEAST LATE WEEK. HOWEVER... AS
ANY SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS PASS TO THE NORTH
OF CENTRAL NC... EXPECT WE SHOULD STILL SEE A SHARPENING OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC DURING THIS THE MEDIUM RANGE...
HELPING TO YIELD ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY... WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD (UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S... WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW MID 70S BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SHOWER IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI WILL MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY...OTHERWISE TAF SITES STAYING IN THE DRY WEATHER SO FAR.
STILL SOME GUSTS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON UP TO 20 KTS OR SO OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN AFTER DARK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BUT
COVERAGE IS LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...INCREASING IN COVERAGE NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS BUT
TERMINALS RECEIVING RAIN COULD SEE SOME BRIEF DROP IN CONDITIONS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LONG TERM: LONG TERM MODELS SHOW THE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOLDING OVER
CENTRAL NC...INDICATING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL AS ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION..ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 042330
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND INTERACT WITH
A SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL WAVER ACROSS VA AND NC THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ON TWO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXES...ONE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND THE OTHER NEAR THE NW PIEDMONT. IN
BETWEEN...A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
CONVECTION THROUGH SUNSET. THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT MAY
PERSIST PAST SUNSET AS A SLOW MOVING SFC BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS.

BETTER DCAPE AND INVERTED V SIGNATURE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE SOUTH SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WITH
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS OF STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND MARBLE TO QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN.

BULK OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY AMPLIFIES...CAUSING
HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION TO SLOWLY BUILD/EXPAND NORTHWARD. THIS WEAK
SUBSIDENCE MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SE COUNTIES. PERTURBATIONS ALOFT CROSSING WESTERN NC INTO
WESTERN VA WILL AID TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...LEADING TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. SINCE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON UPPER
SUPPORT...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE NW...TRENDING
TO SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE SE.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TREND WITH MID 80S NW
DUE TO MIXTURE OF SUN/CLOUDS TO AROUND 90 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW INVOF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE TRAILING ASSOCIATED WEAK S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THUS... EXPECT
WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AGAIN... WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO ATTEMPT TO BUILD BACK
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HOWEVER... AS A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME FULLY EXERTING ITS DOMINATES ON
CENTRAL NC... WITH ANY ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT GENERALLY REMAINING
TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC INTO AT LEAST LATE WEEK. HOWEVER... AS
ANY SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS PASS TO THE NORTH
OF CENTRAL NC... EXPECT WE SHOULD STILL SEE A SHARPENING OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC DURING THIS THE MEDIUM RANGE...
HELPING TO YIELD ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY... WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD (UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S... WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW MID 70S BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SHOWER IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI WILL MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY...OTHERWISE TAF SITES STAYING IN THE DRY WEATHER SO FAR.
STILL SOME GUSTS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON UP TO 20 KTS OR SO OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN AFTER DARK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BUT
COVERAGE IS LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...INCREASING IN COVERAGE NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS BUT
TERMINALS RECEIVING RAIN COULD SEE SOME BRIEF DROP IN CONDITIONS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LONG TERM: LONG TERM MODELS SHOW THE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOLDING OVER
CENTRAL NC...INDICATING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL AS ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION..ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 042330
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND INTERACT WITH
A SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL WAVER ACROSS VA AND NC THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ON TWO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXES...ONE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND THE OTHER NEAR THE NW PIEDMONT. IN
BETWEEN...A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
CONVECTION THROUGH SUNSET. THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT MAY
PERSIST PAST SUNSET AS A SLOW MOVING SFC BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS.

BETTER DCAPE AND INVERTED V SIGNATURE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE SOUTH SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WITH
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS OF STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND MARBLE TO QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN.

BULK OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY AMPLIFIES...CAUSING
HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION TO SLOWLY BUILD/EXPAND NORTHWARD. THIS WEAK
SUBSIDENCE MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SE COUNTIES. PERTURBATIONS ALOFT CROSSING WESTERN NC INTO
WESTERN VA WILL AID TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...LEADING TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. SINCE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON UPPER
SUPPORT...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE NW...TRENDING
TO SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE SE.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TREND WITH MID 80S NW
DUE TO MIXTURE OF SUN/CLOUDS TO AROUND 90 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW INVOF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE TRAILING ASSOCIATED WEAK S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THUS... EXPECT
WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AGAIN... WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO ATTEMPT TO BUILD BACK
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HOWEVER... AS A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME FULLY EXERTING ITS DOMINATES ON
CENTRAL NC... WITH ANY ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT GENERALLY REMAINING
TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC INTO AT LEAST LATE WEEK. HOWEVER... AS
ANY SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS PASS TO THE NORTH
OF CENTRAL NC... EXPECT WE SHOULD STILL SEE A SHARPENING OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC DURING THIS THE MEDIUM RANGE...
HELPING TO YIELD ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY... WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD (UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S... WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW MID 70S BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SHOWER IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI WILL MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY...OTHERWISE TAF SITES STAYING IN THE DRY WEATHER SO FAR.
STILL SOME GUSTS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON UP TO 20 KTS OR SO OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN AFTER DARK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BUT
COVERAGE IS LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...INCREASING IN COVERAGE NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS BUT
TERMINALS RECEIVING RAIN COULD SEE SOME BRIEF DROP IN CONDITIONS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LONG TERM: LONG TERM MODELS SHOW THE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOLDING OVER
CENTRAL NC...INDICATING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL AS ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION..ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 042330
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND INTERACT WITH
A SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL WAVER ACROSS VA AND NC THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ON TWO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXES...ONE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND THE OTHER NEAR THE NW PIEDMONT. IN
BETWEEN...A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
CONVECTION THROUGH SUNSET. THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT MAY
PERSIST PAST SUNSET AS A SLOW MOVING SFC BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS.

BETTER DCAPE AND INVERTED V SIGNATURE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE SOUTH SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WITH
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS OF STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND MARBLE TO QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN.

BULK OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY AMPLIFIES...CAUSING
HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION TO SLOWLY BUILD/EXPAND NORTHWARD. THIS WEAK
SUBSIDENCE MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR SE COUNTIES. PERTURBATIONS ALOFT CROSSING WESTERN NC INTO
WESTERN VA WILL AID TO FOCUS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...LEADING TO SCATTERED CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING. SINCE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON UPPER
SUPPORT...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE NW...TRENDING
TO SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE SE.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TREND WITH MID 80S NW
DUE TO MIXTURE OF SUN/CLOUDS TO AROUND 90 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW INVOF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE TRAILING ASSOCIATED WEAK S/W TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THUS... EXPECT
WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AGAIN... WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC.

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO ATTEMPT TO BUILD BACK
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HOWEVER... AS A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE A HARD TIME FULLY EXERTING ITS DOMINATES ON
CENTRAL NC... WITH ANY ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT GENERALLY REMAINING
TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC INTO AT LEAST LATE WEEK. HOWEVER... AS
ANY SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS PASS TO THE NORTH
OF CENTRAL NC... EXPECT WE SHOULD STILL SEE A SHARPENING OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC DURING THIS THE MEDIUM RANGE...
HELPING TO YIELD ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD WILL START OFF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY... WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING
TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD (UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S... WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW MID 70S BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SHOWER IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI WILL MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY...OTHERWISE TAF SITES STAYING IN THE DRY WEATHER SO FAR.
STILL SOME GUSTS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON UP TO 20 KTS OR SO OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN AFTER DARK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BUT
COVERAGE IS LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...INCREASING IN COVERAGE NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS BUT
TERMINALS RECEIVING RAIN COULD SEE SOME BRIEF DROP IN CONDITIONS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LONG TERM: LONG TERM MODELS SHOW THE UNSETTLED PATTERN HOLDING OVER
CENTRAL NC...INDICATING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL AS ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

..RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION..ELLIS




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