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000
FXUS62 KRAH 021141
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
740 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
TODAY.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION AND WILL
CREATE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  THE THERMAL
RIDGE...WHERE H85 TEMPS VERIFIED AT 19C AT 00Z...WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT TODAY...AND GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
OF 93-97 WITH JUST ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE WEST...WITH
HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES EAST OF US HWY 1.

MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE OVER MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NC/VA
BORDER.  AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH INTO VA THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE ONGOING PREFRONTAL CONVECTION CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT AS PW INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER... FORCING WILL MUCH WEAKER THIS FAR SOUTH AWAY FROM THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE...SO COVERAGE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. WEAK SHEAR
AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION...BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER DURING THE EVENING.  THUS...IF CONVECTION CAN CONTINUE INTO
THE AREA...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  POPS WILL INDICATE THE INCREASING CHANCE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DECREASING WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE...MAINLY JUST SURFACE TROUGH...WILL SETTLE
OVER CENTRAL ON WEDNESDAY AS ITS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LIFTS WELL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST.  THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA.  WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
CONTAIN A DISTURBANCE OR TWO TO HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP.  THE AIRMASS WONT CHANGE MUCH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT H85 TEMPS ARE KNOCKED BACK A DEGREE OR TWO...AND ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY EXPAND NORTHWARD...INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...THROUGH FRI. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL
SHEAR AND MOIST AXIS...THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO
CROSS THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHEAST CANADA...WILL REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN
AND BECOME SUPPRESSED...IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...BY ANOTHER
TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE NE US AND SE CANADA THIS WEEKEND...
BEFORE YET ANOTHER ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT
TO SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS SUN-MON. THE FAVORED ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
NC SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN STALL INVOF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS/
ADJACENT GULF STREAM WATERS...AS IT MEETS RESISTANCE FROM RENEWED
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING EXPANDING FROM THE SW ATLANTIC TO THE GOM EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THU: THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHEAR/MOIST AXIS
THROUGH THU WILL PROVIDE FOR A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...ONE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES BETWEEN ONE AND THREE QUARTERS AND TWO
INCHES...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM GROWTH IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY INHIBITED REGIME OVER OUR REGION.
WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE SHEAR AXIS
ALOFT...AND CONVECTION...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO CLIMB SHORT OF WHAT
CONTINUED WARM H85 TEMPS OF AROUND 18C WOULD SUPPORT - HIGHS AROUND
90. IF MORE SUNSHINE WERE REALIZED...HIGHS WOULD BE A CATEGORY
WARMER.  FRI-SAT NIGHT: A PATTERN OF WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT

FRI-SAT NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WILL THEN
FAVOR NEAR CLIMO PROBABILITIES OF DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT TROUGH, AND
SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION...WITH HIGHS EDGING INTO THE LOWER 90S
BENEATH THE BRIEFLY BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.

SUN-MON: THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUN-SUN
NIGHT...WITH LESSENING PROBABILITIES/DRYING FROM NW TO SE...ON MON.
COOLER INVOF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM TUESDAY...

STRATUS HAS SPREAD INLAND FROM THE KILM AREA TOWARD KCTZ...AND MAY
REACH KFAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT BY 14Z.  HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO THE
LIFR CEILINGS AT KFAY.  OTHERWISE...JUST A FEW LOCATIONS ARE
REPORTING MVFR VSBY...WHICH WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR...AND VFR
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.  MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT CONVECTION UPSTREAM OF THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS CONVECTION
THAT FORMS ALONG THE  EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE TO
SETTLE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW AVERAGE
AT THIS TIME...BUT THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AND
LOCALIZED IMPACTS WOULD ROUGHLY BE BETWEEN 23Z AND 05Z FROM WEST TO
EAST.  LATER...AS THE FRONTAL ZONE SLIPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD
TO SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS PRIOR TO 12Z.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KRD/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 021141
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
740 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
TODAY.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION AND WILL
CREATE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  THE THERMAL
RIDGE...WHERE H85 TEMPS VERIFIED AT 19C AT 00Z...WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT TODAY...AND GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
OF 93-97 WITH JUST ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE WEST...WITH
HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES EAST OF US HWY 1.

MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE OVER MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NC/VA
BORDER.  AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH INTO VA THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE ONGOING PREFRONTAL CONVECTION CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT AS PW INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER... FORCING WILL MUCH WEAKER THIS FAR SOUTH AWAY FROM THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE...SO COVERAGE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. WEAK SHEAR
AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION...BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER DURING THE EVENING.  THUS...IF CONVECTION CAN CONTINUE INTO
THE AREA...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  POPS WILL INDICATE THE INCREASING CHANCE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DECREASING WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE...MAINLY JUST SURFACE TROUGH...WILL SETTLE
OVER CENTRAL ON WEDNESDAY AS ITS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LIFTS WELL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST.  THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA.  WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
CONTAIN A DISTURBANCE OR TWO TO HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP.  THE AIRMASS WONT CHANGE MUCH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT H85 TEMPS ARE KNOCKED BACK A DEGREE OR TWO...AND ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY EXPAND NORTHWARD...INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...THROUGH FRI. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL
SHEAR AND MOIST AXIS...THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO
CROSS THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHEAST CANADA...WILL REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN
AND BECOME SUPPRESSED...IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...BY ANOTHER
TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE NE US AND SE CANADA THIS WEEKEND...
BEFORE YET ANOTHER ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT
TO SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS SUN-MON. THE FAVORED ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
NC SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN STALL INVOF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS/
ADJACENT GULF STREAM WATERS...AS IT MEETS RESISTANCE FROM RENEWED
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING EXPANDING FROM THE SW ATLANTIC TO THE GOM EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THU: THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHEAR/MOIST AXIS
THROUGH THU WILL PROVIDE FOR A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...ONE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES BETWEEN ONE AND THREE QUARTERS AND TWO
INCHES...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM GROWTH IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY INHIBITED REGIME OVER OUR REGION.
WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE SHEAR AXIS
ALOFT...AND CONVECTION...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO CLIMB SHORT OF WHAT
CONTINUED WARM H85 TEMPS OF AROUND 18C WOULD SUPPORT - HIGHS AROUND
90. IF MORE SUNSHINE WERE REALIZED...HIGHS WOULD BE A CATEGORY
WARMER.  FRI-SAT NIGHT: A PATTERN OF WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT

FRI-SAT NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WILL THEN
FAVOR NEAR CLIMO PROBABILITIES OF DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT TROUGH, AND
SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION...WITH HIGHS EDGING INTO THE LOWER 90S
BENEATH THE BRIEFLY BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.

SUN-MON: THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUN-SUN
NIGHT...WITH LESSENING PROBABILITIES/DRYING FROM NW TO SE...ON MON.
COOLER INVOF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM TUESDAY...

STRATUS HAS SPREAD INLAND FROM THE KILM AREA TOWARD KCTZ...AND MAY
REACH KFAY BEFORE SCATTERING OUT BY 14Z.  HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO THE
LIFR CEILINGS AT KFAY.  OTHERWISE...JUST A FEW LOCATIONS ARE
REPORTING MVFR VSBY...WHICH WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR...AND VFR
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.  MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT CONVECTION UPSTREAM OF THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS CONVECTION
THAT FORMS ALONG THE  EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE TO
SETTLE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  CONFIDENCE IS STILL BELOW AVERAGE
AT THIS TIME...BUT THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR A SHOWER OR STORM AND
LOCALIZED IMPACTS WOULD ROUGHLY BE BETWEEN 23Z AND 05Z FROM WEST TO
EAST.  LATER...AS THE FRONTAL ZONE SLIPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD
TO SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS PRIOR TO 12Z.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KRD/BLS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 020735
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
333 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
TODAY.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION AND WILL
CREATE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  THE THERMAL
RIDGE...WHERE H85 TEMPS VERIFIED AT 19C AT 00Z...WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT TODAY...AND GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
OF 93-97 WITH JUST ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE WEST...WITH
HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES EAST OF US HWY 1.

MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE OVER MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NC/VA
BORDER.  AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH INTO VA THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE ONGOING PREFRONTAL CONVECTION CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT AS PW INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER... FORCING WILL MUCH WEAKER THIS FAR SOUTH AWAY FROM THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE...SO COVERAGE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. WEAK SHEAR
AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION...BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER DURING THE EVENING.  THUS...IF CONVECTION CAN CONTINUE INTO
THE AREA...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  POPS WILL INDICATE THE INCREASING CHANCE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DECREASING WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE...MAINLY JUST SURFACE TROUGH...WILL SETTLE
OVER CENTRAL ON WEDNESDAY AS ITS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LIFTS WELL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST.  THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA.  WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
CONTAIN A DISTURBANCE OR TWO TO HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP.  THE AIRMASS WONT CHANGE MUCH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT H85 TEMPS ARE KNOCKED BACK A DEGREE OR TWO...AND ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY EXPAND NORTHWARD...INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...THROUGH FRI. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL
SHEAR AND MOIST AXIS...THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO
CROSS THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHEAST CANADA...WILL REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN
AND BECOME SUPPRESSED...IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...BY ANOTHER
TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE NE US AND SE CANADA THIS WEEKEND...
BEFORE YET ANOTHER ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT
TO SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS SUN-MON. THE FAVORED ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
NC SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN STALL INVOF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS/
ADJACENT GULF STREAM WATERS...AS IT MEETS RESISTANCE FROM RENEWED
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING EXPANDING FROM THE SW ATLANTIC TO THE GOM EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THU: THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHEAR/MOIST AXIS
THROUGH THU WILL PROVIDE FOR A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...ONE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES BETWEEN ONE AND THREE QUARTERS AND TWO
INCHES...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM GROWTH IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY INHIBITED REGIME OVER OUR REGION.
WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE SHEAR AXIS
ALOFT...AND CONVECTION...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO CLIMB SHORT OF WHAT
CONTINUED WARM H85 TEMPS OF AROUND 18C WOULD SUPPORT - HIGHS AROUND
90. IF MORE SUNSHINE WERE REALIZED...HIGHS WOULD BE A CATEGORY
WARMER.  FRI-SAT NIGHT: A PATTERN OF WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT

FRI-SAT NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WILL THEN
FAVOR NEAR CLIMO PROBABILITIES OF DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT TROUGH, AND
SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION...WITH HIGHS EDGING INTO THE LOWER 90S
BENEATH THE BRIEFLY BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.

SUN-MON: THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUN-SUN
NIGHT...WITH LESSENING PROBABILITIES/DRYING FROM NW TO SE...ON MON.
COOLER INVOF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  EXPECT A FEW
AREAS OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z...MAINLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI.  HOWEVER...BASED ON NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.  LATER TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO NC FROM THE NORTH.
AT THIS TIME... CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF STORMS IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS BUT INCREASE WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KRD/BLS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 020735
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
333 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
TODAY.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION AND WILL
CREATE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  THE THERMAL
RIDGE...WHERE H85 TEMPS VERIFIED AT 19C AT 00Z...WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT TODAY...AND GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
OF 93-97 WITH JUST ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE WEST...WITH
HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES EAST OF US HWY 1.

MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE OVER MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NC/VA
BORDER.  AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH INTO VA THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE ONGOING PREFRONTAL CONVECTION CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT AS PW INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER... FORCING WILL MUCH WEAKER THIS FAR SOUTH AWAY FROM THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE...SO COVERAGE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. WEAK SHEAR
AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION...BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER DURING THE EVENING.  THUS...IF CONVECTION CAN CONTINUE INTO
THE AREA...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  POPS WILL INDICATE THE INCREASING CHANCE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DECREASING WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE...MAINLY JUST SURFACE TROUGH...WILL SETTLE
OVER CENTRAL ON WEDNESDAY AS ITS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LIFTS WELL OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST.  THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW NEAR 2 INCHES WILL SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA.  WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
CONTAIN A DISTURBANCE OR TWO TO HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP.  THE AIRMASS WONT CHANGE MUCH ON WEDNESDAY
BUT H85 TEMPS ARE KNOCKED BACK A DEGREE OR TWO...AND ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO HELP TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY EXPAND NORTHWARD...INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...THROUGH FRI. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL
SHEAR AND MOIST AXIS...THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO
CROSS THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHEAST CANADA...WILL REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN
AND BECOME SUPPRESSED...IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...BY ANOTHER
TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE NE US AND SE CANADA THIS WEEKEND...
BEFORE YET ANOTHER ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT
TO SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS SUN-MON. THE FAVORED ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
NC SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN STALL INVOF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS/
ADJACENT GULF STREAM WATERS...AS IT MEETS RESISTANCE FROM RENEWED
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING EXPANDING FROM THE SW ATLANTIC TO THE GOM EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THU: THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHEAR/MOIST AXIS
THROUGH THU WILL PROVIDE FOR A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...ONE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES BETWEEN ONE AND THREE QUARTERS AND TWO
INCHES...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM GROWTH IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY INHIBITED REGIME OVER OUR REGION.
WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE SHEAR AXIS
ALOFT...AND CONVECTION...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO CLIMB SHORT OF WHAT
CONTINUED WARM H85 TEMPS OF AROUND 18C WOULD SUPPORT - HIGHS AROUND
90. IF MORE SUNSHINE WERE REALIZED...HIGHS WOULD BE A CATEGORY
WARMER.  FRI-SAT NIGHT: A PATTERN OF WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT

FRI-SAT NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WILL THEN
FAVOR NEAR CLIMO PROBABILITIES OF DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT TROUGH, AND
SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION...WITH HIGHS EDGING INTO THE LOWER 90S
BENEATH THE BRIEFLY BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.

SUN-MON: THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUN-SUN
NIGHT...WITH LESSENING PROBABILITIES/DRYING FROM NW TO SE...ON MON.
COOLER INVOF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  EXPECT A FEW
AREAS OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z...MAINLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI.  HOWEVER...BASED ON NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.  LATER TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO NC FROM THE NORTH.
AT THIS TIME... CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF STORMS IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS BUT INCREASE WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KRD/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020727
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
327 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
TODAY.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION AND WILL
CREATE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  THE THERMAL
RIDGE...WHERE H85 TEMPS VERIFIED AT 19C AT 00Z...WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT TODAY...AND GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
OF 93-97 WITH JUST ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE WEST...WITH
HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES EAST OF US HWY 1.

MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE OVER MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NC/VA
BORDER.  AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH INTO VA THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE ONGOING PREFRONTAL CONVECTION CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT AS PW INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER... FORCING WILL MUCH WEAKER THIS FAR SOUTH AWAY FROM THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE...SO COVERAGE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. WEAK SHEAR
AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION...BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER DURING THE EVENING.  THUS...IF CONVECTION CAN CONTINUE INTO
THE AREA...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  POPS WILL INDICATE THE INCREASING CHANCE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DECREASING WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY EXPAND NORTHWARD...INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...THROUGH FRI. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL
SHEAR AND MOIST AXIS...THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO
CROSS THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHEAST CANADA...WILL REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN
AND BECOME SUPPRESSED...IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...BY ANOTHER
TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE NE US AND SE CANADA THIS WEEKEND...
BEFORE YET ANOTHER ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT
TO SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS SUN-MON. THE FAVORED ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
NC SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN STALL INVOF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS/
ADJACENT GULF STREAM WATERS...AS IT MEETS RESISTANCE FROM RENEWED
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING EXPANDING FROM THE SW ATLANTIC TO THE GOM EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THU: THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHEAR/MOIST AXIS
THROUGH THU WILL PROVIDE FOR A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...ONE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES BETWEEN ONE AND THREE QUARTERS AND TWO
INCHES...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM GROWTH IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY INHIBITED REGIME OVER OUR REGION.
WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE SHEAR AXIS
ALOFT...AND CONVECTION...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO CLIMB SHORT OF WHAT
CONTINUED WARM H85 TEMPS OF AROUND 18C WOULD SUPPORT - HIGHS AROUND
90. IF MORE SUNSHINE WERE REALIZED...HIGHS WOULD BE A CATEGORY
WARMER.  FRI-SAT NIGHT: A PATTERN OF WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT

FRI-SAT NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WILL THEN
FAVOR NEAR CLIMO PROBABILITIES OF DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT TROUGH, AND
SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION...WITH HIGHS EDGING INTO THE LOWER 90S
BENEATH THE BRIEFLY BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.

SUN-MON: THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUN-SUN
NIGHT...WITH LESSENING PROBABILITIES/DRYING FROM NW TO SE...ON MON.
COOLER INVOF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  EXPECT A FEW
AREAS OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z...MAINLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI.  HOWEVER...BASED ON NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.  LATER TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO NC FROM THE NORTH.
AT THIS TIME... CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF STORMS IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS BUT INCREASE WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KRD/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020727
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
327 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
TODAY.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION AND WILL
CREATE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  THE THERMAL
RIDGE...WHERE H85 TEMPS VERIFIED AT 19C AT 00Z...WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT TODAY...AND GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
OF 93-97 WITH JUST ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE WEST...WITH
HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES EAST OF US HWY 1.

MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE OVER MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NC/VA
BORDER.  AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH INTO VA THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE ONGOING PREFRONTAL CONVECTION CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT AS PW INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER... FORCING WILL MUCH WEAKER THIS FAR SOUTH AWAY FROM THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE...SO COVERAGE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. WEAK SHEAR
AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION...BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER DURING THE EVENING.  THUS...IF CONVECTION CAN CONTINUE INTO
THE AREA...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  POPS WILL INDICATE THE INCREASING CHANCE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DECREASING WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM TUESDAY...

THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY EXPAND NORTHWARD...INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...THROUGH FRI. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL
SHEAR AND MOIST AXIS...THE TAIL END OF A TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST TO
CROSS THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHEAST CANADA...WILL REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN
AND BECOME SUPPRESSED...IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...BY ANOTHER
TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE NE US AND SE CANADA THIS WEEKEND...
BEFORE YET ANOTHER ESTABLISHMENT OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT
TO SETTLE INTO THE CAROLINAS SUN-MON. THE FAVORED ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
NC SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN STALL INVOF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS/
ADJACENT GULF STREAM WATERS...AS IT MEETS RESISTANCE FROM RENEWED
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING EXPANDING FROM THE SW ATLANTIC TO THE GOM EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THU: THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SHEAR/MOIST AXIS
THROUGH THU WILL PROVIDE FOR A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...ONE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES BETWEEN ONE AND THREE QUARTERS AND TWO
INCHES...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM GROWTH IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY INHIBITED REGIME OVER OUR REGION.
WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE SHEAR AXIS
ALOFT...AND CONVECTION...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO CLIMB SHORT OF WHAT
CONTINUED WARM H85 TEMPS OF AROUND 18C WOULD SUPPORT - HIGHS AROUND
90. IF MORE SUNSHINE WERE REALIZED...HIGHS WOULD BE A CATEGORY
WARMER.  FRI-SAT NIGHT: A PATTERN OF WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT

FRI-SAT NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WILL THEN
FAVOR NEAR CLIMO PROBABILITIES OF DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT TROUGH, AND
SEA BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION...WITH HIGHS EDGING INTO THE LOWER 90S
BENEATH THE BRIEFLY BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.

SUN-MON: THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL ACCOMPANY THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUN-SUN
NIGHT...WITH LESSENING PROBABILITIES/DRYING FROM NW TO SE...ON MON.
COOLER INVOF AND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  EXPECT A FEW
AREAS OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z...MAINLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI.  HOWEVER...BASED ON NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.  LATER TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO NC FROM THE NORTH.
AT THIS TIME... CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF STORMS IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS BUT INCREASE WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KRD/BLS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 020706
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
TODAY.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION AND WILL
CREATE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  THE THERMAL
RIDGE...WHERE H85 TEMPS VERIFIED AT 19C AT 00Z...WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT TODAY...AND GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
OF 93-97 WITH JUST ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE WEST...WITH
HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES EAST OF US HWY 1.

MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE OVER MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NC/VA
BORDER.  AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH INTO VA THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE ONGOING PREFRONTAL CONVECTION CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT AS PW INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER... FORCING WILL MUCH WEAKER THIS FAR SOUTH AWAY FROM THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE...SO COVERAGE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. WEAK SHEAR
AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION...BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER DURING THE EVENING.  THUS...IF CONVECTION CAN CONTINUE INTO
THE AREA...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  POPS WILL INDICATE THE INCREASING CHANCE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DECREASING WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  EXPECT A FEW
AREAS OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z...MAINLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI.  HOWEVER...BASED ON NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.  LATER TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO NC FROM THE NORTH.
AT THIS TIME... CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF STORMS IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS BUT INCREASE WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD/BLS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 020706
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
TODAY.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION AND WILL
CREATE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  THE THERMAL
RIDGE...WHERE H85 TEMPS VERIFIED AT 19C AT 00Z...WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT TODAY...AND GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
OF 93-97 WITH JUST ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN MIX OUT A LITTLE MORE IN THE WEST...WITH
HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES EAST OF US HWY 1.

MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE OVER MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION
WILL CROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NC/VA
BORDER.  AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH INTO VA THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE ONGOING PREFRONTAL CONVECTION CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT AS PW INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER... FORCING WILL MUCH WEAKER THIS FAR SOUTH AWAY FROM THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE...SO COVERAGE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. WEAK SHEAR
AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION...BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AS DEWPOINTS
RECOVER DURING THE EVENING.  THUS...IF CONVECTION CAN CONTINUE INTO
THE AREA...A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  POPS WILL INDICATE THE INCREASING CHANCE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DECREASING WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  EXPECT A FEW
AREAS OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z...MAINLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI.  HOWEVER...BASED ON NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.  LATER TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO NC FROM THE NORTH.
AT THIS TIME... CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF STORMS IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS BUT INCREASE WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020547
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
TODAY.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM MONDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGE... CENTERED TO THE SSW OF CENTRAL NC OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH... WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCES CONTINUES TO
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC THOUGH. THUS... WILL CONTINUE A
DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70/LOWER 70S TO MID 70S
SE.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  EXPECT A FEW
AREAS OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z...MAINLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI.  HOWEVER...BASED ON NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.  LATER TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO NC FROM THE NORTH.
AT THIS TIME... CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF STORMS IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS BUT INCREASE WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BSD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020547
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
TODAY.  A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM MONDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGE... CENTERED TO THE SSW OF CENTRAL NC OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH... WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCES CONTINUES TO
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC THOUGH. THUS... WILL CONTINUE A
DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70/LOWER 70S TO MID 70S
SE.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  EXPECT A FEW
AREAS OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z...MAINLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI.  HOWEVER...BASED ON NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.  LATER TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO NC FROM THE NORTH.
AT THIS TIME... CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF STORMS IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS BUT INCREASE WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BSD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD/BLS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 020546
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM MONDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGE... CENTERED TO THE SSW OF CENTRAL NC OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH... WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCES CONTINUES TO
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC THOUGH. THUS... WILL CONTINUE A
DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70/LOWER 70S TO MID 70S
SE.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  EXPECT A FEW
AREAS OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z...MAINLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI.  HOWEVER...BASED ON NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.  LATER TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO NC FROM THE NORTH.
AT THIS TIME... CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF STORMS IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS BUT INCREASE WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BSD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD/BLS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 020546
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
140 AM EDT MON SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM MONDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGE... CENTERED TO THE SSW OF CENTRAL NC OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH... WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCES CONTINUES TO
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC THOUGH. THUS... WILL CONTINUE A
DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70/LOWER 70S TO MID 70S
SE.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  EXPECT A FEW
AREAS OF STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z...MAINLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI.  HOWEVER...BASED ON NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
STRATUS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.  LATER TODAY...ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS INTO NC FROM THE NORTH.
AT THIS TIME... CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF STORMS IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION IN THE TAFS BUT INCREASE WITH SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BSD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020349
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1023 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM MONDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGE... CENTERED TO THE SSW OF CENTRAL NC OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH... WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCES CONTINUES TO
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC THOUGH. THUS... WILL CONTINUE A
DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70/LOWER 70S TO MID 70S
SE.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS/FOG
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WITH KRWI HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY (GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT AIR MASS IN PLACE). AFTER ALMOST CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT (UNDER 10 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BSD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020349
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1023 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM MONDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGE... CENTERED TO THE SSW OF CENTRAL NC OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH... WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCES CONTINUES TO
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC THOUGH. THUS... WILL CONTINUE A
DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70/LOWER 70S TO MID 70S
SE.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS/FOG
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WITH KRWI HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY (GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT AIR MASS IN PLACE). AFTER ALMOST CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT (UNDER 10 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BSD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 020349
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1023 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM MONDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGE... CENTERED TO THE SSW OF CENTRAL NC OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH... WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCES CONTINUES TO
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC THOUGH. THUS... WILL CONTINUE A
DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70/LOWER 70S TO MID 70S
SE.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS/FOG
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WITH KRWI HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY (GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT AIR MASS IN PLACE). AFTER ALMOST CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT (UNDER 10 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BSD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020349
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1023 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM MONDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGE... CENTERED TO THE SSW OF CENTRAL NC OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH... WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCES CONTINUES TO
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC THOUGH. THUS... WILL CONTINUE A
DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70/LOWER 70S TO MID 70S
SE.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS/FOG
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WITH KRWI HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY (GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT AIR MASS IN PLACE). AFTER ALMOST CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT (UNDER 10 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BSD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 020224
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1023 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM MONDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGE... CENTERED TO THE SSW OF CENTRAL NC OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH... WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCES CONTINUES TO
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC THOUGH. THUS... WILL CONTINUE A
DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70/LOWER 70S TO MID 70S
SE.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS/FOG
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WITH KRWI HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY (GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT AIR MASS IN PLACE). AFTER ALMOST CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT (UNDER 10 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BSD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020224
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1023 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM MONDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGE... CENTERED TO THE SSW OF CENTRAL NC OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH... WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER... WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCES CONTINUES TO
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC THOUGH. THUS... WILL CONTINUE A
DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LOWS MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 70/LOWER 70S TO MID 70S
SE.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS/FOG
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WITH KRWI HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY (GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT AIR MASS IN PLACE). AFTER ALMOST CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT (UNDER 10 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BSD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 020013
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
813 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... SLIGHT TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
COVERS CENTRAL NC AT MID AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SHEAR AXIS SLOWLY
EDGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. BEST DYNAMICS/LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION AS SHEAR AXIS IS IMPEDING
UPON A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN NC. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT COULD STILL
SEE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON 18Z
MESO-ANALYSIS...ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER
COUNTIES. THIS SCENARIO HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE LATEST HRRR (WHICH
HAS BEEN TRENDING WETTER). THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS...THOUGH...HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER AND NOW SUGGEST THAT
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS/FOG
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WITH KRWI HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY (GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT AIR MASS IN PLACE). AFTER ALMOST CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT (UNDER 10 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020013
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
813 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... SLIGHT TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
COVERS CENTRAL NC AT MID AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SHEAR AXIS SLOWLY
EDGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. BEST DYNAMICS/LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION AS SHEAR AXIS IS IMPEDING
UPON A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN NC. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT COULD STILL
SEE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON 18Z
MESO-ANALYSIS...ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER
COUNTIES. THIS SCENARIO HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE LATEST HRRR (WHICH
HAS BEEN TRENDING WETTER). THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS...THOUGH...HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER AND NOW SUGGEST THAT
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS/FOG
TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WITH KRWI HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY (GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT AIR MASS IN PLACE). AFTER ALMOST CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY LIGHT (UNDER 10 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEATURING DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 011903
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... SLIGHT TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
COVERS CENTRAL NC AT MID AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SHEAR AXIS SLOWLY
EDGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. BEST DYNAMICS/LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION AS SHEAR AXIS IS IMPEDING
UPON A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN NC. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT COULD STILL
SEE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON 18Z
MESO-ANALYSIS...ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER
COUNTIES. THIS SCENARIO HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE LATEST HRRR (WHICH
HAS BEEN TRENDING WETTER). THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS...THOUGH...HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER AND NOW SUGGEST THAT
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A GOOD PROBABILITY OF EARLY
STRATUS AND FOG (AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS)OCCURRING NEAR
KRWI...KFAY AND POTENTIALLY NEAR KRDU. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.

ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEABREEZE WHICH
MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR OR SOUTH OF KGSB AND KRWI
AND TO THE EAST-SE OF KFAY. THE SAME STORY WILL HOLD FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR IN VICINITY OF
KINT AND KGSO LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS FEATURE
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY
IS PROJECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...THE OCCURRENCE OF
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 011903
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... SLIGHT TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
COVERS CENTRAL NC AT MID AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SHEAR AXIS SLOWLY
EDGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. BEST DYNAMICS/LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION AS SHEAR AXIS IS IMPEDING
UPON A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN NC. THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT COULD STILL
SEE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON 18Z
MESO-ANALYSIS...ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER
COUNTIES. THIS SCENARIO HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE LATEST HRRR (WHICH
HAS BEEN TRENDING WETTER). THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS...THOUGH...HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER AND NOW SUGGEST THAT
ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN..SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER DENSE FOG
WILL BE RARE WITH BULK OF THE VISIBILITIES AT OR ABOVE 1-2 MILES.

MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM MONDAY...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROJECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW MORE T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT-MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. IN ADDITION...A S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC. WHILE FORCING IS BETTER
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIFT IS STILL CONSIDERED WEAK-
MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS WILL LIMIT POPS TO NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES WILL
REMAIN 20-25M ABOVE NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
90S UNDER FULL SUN CONDITIONS. WHEN THE HUMIDITY IS FACTORED
IN...HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100-104 WILL BE COMMON WITH THE HIGHEST
H.I.VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. -WSS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A GOOD PROBABILITY OF EARLY
STRATUS AND FOG (AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS)OCCURRING NEAR
KRWI...KFAY AND POTENTIALLY NEAR KRDU. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.

ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEABREEZE WHICH
MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR OR SOUTH OF KGSB AND KRWI
AND TO THE EAST-SE OF KFAY. THE SAME STORY WILL HOLD FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR IN VICINITY OF
KINT AND KGSO LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS FEATURE
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY
IS PROJECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...THE OCCURRENCE OF
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011830
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM MONDAY...

ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...BASED ON
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND OBSERVED TEMPERATURE TREND.

PATCHES OF EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFT/DISSIPATED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SC/GA COAST...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OF NC. THE PRESENCE OF THIS WEATHER FEATURE
WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LATEST WRF/MESO MODEL ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE
NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED. THUS HAVE TRIMMED THE SMALL CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POP A BIT ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN.

12Z AREA SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICTS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MIXING OF THIS
DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE SHOULD CAUSE SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO
THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT...WHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 WILL BE COMMON IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL
PLAIN. THICKNESSES SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S SO
LITTLE ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED IN THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

(FROM 315 AM MONDAY) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...
WITH H85 TEMPS AGAIN AROUND 20C AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
BERMUDA HIGH.  A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO
SOME VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OVER VIRGINIA AND NC...WHICH SHOULD
INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AMIDST MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND PW
OVER 1.75 INCHES.  SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK...HOWEVER...AND THE BETTER SEVERE THREAT SHOULD ACCORDINGLY
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.  HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES AROUND
100F IN THE EAST.

THE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY
HELP MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST ACTIVITY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. -BLS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A GOOD PROBABILITY OF EARLY
STRATUS AND FOG (AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS)OCCURRING NEAR
KRWI...KFAY AND POTENTIALLY NEAR KRDU. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.

ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEABREEZE WHICH
MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR OR SOUTH OF KGSB AND KRWI
AND TO THE EAST-SE OF KFAY. THE SAME STORY WILL HOLD FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR IN VICINITY OF
KINT AND KGSO LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS FEATURE
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY
IS PROJECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...THE OCCURRENCE OF
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BLS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011830
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM MONDAY...

ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...BASED ON
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND OBSERVED TEMPERATURE TREND.

PATCHES OF EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFT/DISSIPATED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SC/GA COAST...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OF NC. THE PRESENCE OF THIS WEATHER FEATURE
WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LATEST WRF/MESO MODEL ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE
NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED. THUS HAVE TRIMMED THE SMALL CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POP A BIT ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN.

12Z AREA SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICTS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MIXING OF THIS
DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE SHOULD CAUSE SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO
THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT...WHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 WILL BE COMMON IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL
PLAIN. THICKNESSES SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S SO
LITTLE ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED IN THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

(FROM 315 AM MONDAY) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...
WITH H85 TEMPS AGAIN AROUND 20C AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
BERMUDA HIGH.  A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO
SOME VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OVER VIRGINIA AND NC...WHICH SHOULD
INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AMIDST MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND PW
OVER 1.75 INCHES.  SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK...HOWEVER...AND THE BETTER SEVERE THREAT SHOULD ACCORDINGLY
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.  HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES AROUND
100F IN THE EAST.

THE WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY
HELP MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST ACTIVITY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. -BLS

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION THAT REMAINS FROM THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC WILL BECOME EVEN MORE WASHED OUT
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE LEE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC. MODELS SHOW A VERY
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT PUSHING ESE THROUGH
NC EARLY WED... AND ITS APPROACH ALONG WITH LINGERING STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER ERN NC SHOULD SUPPORT AN AREA OF
ATYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE ERN AND ESPECIALLY SE CWA
WED MORNING. THE DEPARTURE AND DAMPENING OF THE MEAN MID LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE WILL RESULT IN MODEST RISING HEIGHTS (15-25 M)
WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NC THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN
BRINGING LOWER PW (UNDER 1.5") INTO MUCH OF THE CWA FROM THE NW WITH
A BIT STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH
KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.7-1.9". GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE DAMPENING WITH LITTLE REASON TO SUPPORT A STRONG PUSH
OF DRY AIR PAST THE MOUNTAINS... THE GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH
INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY... BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
STRONG RIDGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS
THE FAR NW... WITH THE GFS SHOWING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2500 J/KG.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING STORMS... WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH... AS WELL AS ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH ABOVE-NORMAL PW AND WEAK MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THICKNESSES
A TAD LOWER THAN TUE BUT REMAINING 12-20 M ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT
WARM AND STICKY HIGHS OF 91-95... DESPITE A GOOD CHANCE OF DEBRIS
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD RECEDE WED
NIGHT BUT THE GFS INDICATES PLENTY OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT... INCLUDING MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG RESULTING FROM VERY
WARM 960-920 MB TEMPS. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS MAINLY SOUTH HALF
OVERNIGHT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
IN AIR MASS. AT THE SURFACE... THE WEAK LEE TROUGH HOLDS THROUGH
CENTRAL NC... ALONG WITH A HUMID AND SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AIR MASS. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW
CANADA INTO THE DAKOTAS THU... RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
GRADUAL MID LEVEL WARMING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS POLAR
STREAM TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO ERN CANADA... WHILE THE FLAT RIDGE
HOLDS ACROSS NC. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE OR SOME
OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH DAYS...
WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY
10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT THROUGH MON: A PATTERN TRANSITION IS LIKELY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD OVER ERN
CANADA EARLY SAT... HOWEVER A SLUG OF STRONG VORTICITY EMANATING
FROM A STRONG COLD VORTEX OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PUSH EASTWARD
CLOSE ON ITS HEELS... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH
VALLEY BY EARLY SAT. THE RESULTING TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM SUNDAY
SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NC... AFTER WHICH TIME IT
IS APT TO LAY WEST/EAST AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR LATE SUN
THROUGH MON. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER/FASTER TIME FRAME THAN THE
ECMWF... WITH THE FORMER MODEL SOLUTION TAKING THICKNESSES MUCH
COLDER... UP TO 25 M BELOW NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH IS
BARELY 5 M BELOW NORMAL. TOUGH TO RESOLVE SUCH DIFFERENCES BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SRN CONUS RIDGE... AND THE FAR-NORTH TRACK OF
THE POLAR LOW... I REMAIN SKEPTICAL ABOUT A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH NC. WILL STAY ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE TEMP
TREND... WITH HIGHS/LOWS INITIALLY AROUND 90/AROUND 70 SAT...
SLIPPING TO LOW-MID 80S/UPPER 60S BY MON. PRECIP CHANCES AND
PATTERNS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN... PERHAPS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT... STRENGTHENING (YET STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK) MID LEVEL FLOW...
AND A PERSISTENT CONFLUENT INFLUX OF GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
ON -- BUT NOT RESTRICTED TO -- AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
KEEP A CLIMO CHANCE POP ON MON... WITH LOWER THAN USUAL CONFIDENCE
AS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE FRONT HOLDS UP
ACROSS NC OR SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A GOOD PROBABILITY OF EARLY
STRATUS AND FOG (AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS)OCCURRING NEAR
KRWI...KFAY AND POTENTIALLY NEAR KRDU. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.

ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEABREEZE WHICH
MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR OR SOUTH OF KGSB AND KRWI
AND TO THE EAST-SE OF KFAY. THE SAME STORY WILL HOLD FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR IN VICINITY OF
KINT AND KGSO LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS FEATURE
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY
IS PROJECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...THE OCCURRENCE OF
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BLS/HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 011721
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
120 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM MONDAY...

ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...BASED ON
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND OBSERVED TEMPERATURE TREND.

PATCHES OF EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFT/DISSIPATED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SC/GA COAST...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OF NC. THE PRESENCE OF THIS WEATHER FEATURE
WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LATEST WRF/MESO MODEL ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE
NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED. THUS HAVE TRIMMED THE SMALL CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POP A BIT ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN.

12Z AREA SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICTS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MIXING OF THIS
DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE SHOULD CAUSE SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO
THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT...WHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 WILL BE COMMON IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL
PLAIN. THICKNESSES SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S SO
LITTLE ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED IN THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS AGAIN
AROUND 20C AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH.  A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
OVER VIRGINIA AND NC...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AMIDST MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND PW OVER 1.75 INCHES.  SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER...AND THE BETTER SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD ACCORDINGLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.  HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F IN THE EAST.

THE WEAK HEIGH FALLS ALOFT AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY HELP
MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST ACTIVITY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

A HOT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WAX AND WANE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER PEAKING OVER THE SE EARLY THIS
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WEST AND YIELD TO A GENERALLY
E-W ORIENTED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WED-THU...BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE
OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...FRI-SAT. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SUN-MON...AT THE BASE OF A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS SE CANADA...
ONLY TO RE-EXPAND THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS TO SETTLE INTO NC - ONE WED INTO THU AND THE OTHER SAT NIGHT-
SUN. BOTH MODEST COOLING AND ABOVE AVG PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
OCCUR DURING THESE TIMES...IN CONTRAST TO OTHERWISE HOT CONDITIONS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT, AND SEA-
BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A GOOD PROBABILITY OF EARLY
STRATUS AND FOG (AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS)OCCURRING NEAR
KRWI...KFAY AND POTENTIALLY NEAR KRDU. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.

ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEABREEZE WHICH
MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR OR SOUTH OF KGSB AND KRWI
AND TO THE EAST-SE OF KFAY. THE SAME STORY WILL HOLD FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR IN VICINITY OF
KINT AND KGSO LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS FEATURE
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY
IS PROJECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...THE OCCURRENCE OF
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011721
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
120 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM MONDAY...

ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...BASED ON
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND OBSERVED TEMPERATURE TREND.

PATCHES OF EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFT/DISSIPATED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SC/GA COAST...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OF NC. THE PRESENCE OF THIS WEATHER FEATURE
WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LATEST WRF/MESO MODEL ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE
NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED. THUS HAVE TRIMMED THE SMALL CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POP A BIT ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN.

12Z AREA SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICTS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MIXING OF THIS
DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE SHOULD CAUSE SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO
THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT...WHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 WILL BE COMMON IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL
PLAIN. THICKNESSES SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S SO
LITTLE ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED IN THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS AGAIN
AROUND 20C AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH.  A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
OVER VIRGINIA AND NC...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AMIDST MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND PW OVER 1.75 INCHES.  SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER...AND THE BETTER SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD ACCORDINGLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.  HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F IN THE EAST.

THE WEAK HEIGH FALLS ALOFT AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY HELP
MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST ACTIVITY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

A HOT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WAX AND WANE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER PEAKING OVER THE SE EARLY THIS
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WEST AND YIELD TO A GENERALLY
E-W ORIENTED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WED-THU...BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE
OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...FRI-SAT. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SUN-MON...AT THE BASE OF A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS SE CANADA...
ONLY TO RE-EXPAND THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS TO SETTLE INTO NC - ONE WED INTO THU AND THE OTHER SAT NIGHT-
SUN. BOTH MODEST COOLING AND ABOVE AVG PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
OCCUR DURING THESE TIMES...IN CONTRAST TO OTHERWISE HOT CONDITIONS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT, AND SEA-
BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A GOOD PROBABILITY OF EARLY
STRATUS AND FOG (AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS)OCCURRING NEAR
KRWI...KFAY AND POTENTIALLY NEAR KRDU. THE FOG/STRATUS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.

ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SEABREEZE WHICH
MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR OR SOUTH OF KGSB AND KRWI
AND TO THE EAST-SE OF KFAY. THE SAME STORY WILL HOLD FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR IN VICINITY OF
KINT AND KGSO LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AS
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS FEATURE
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY
IS PROJECTED TO WEAKEN THURSDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...THE OCCURRENCE OF
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 011420
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1020 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM MONDAY...

ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...BASED ON
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND OBSERVED TEMPERATURE TREND.

PATCHES OF EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFT/DISSIPATED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SC/GA COAST...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OF NC. THE PRESENCE OF THIS WEATHER FEATURE
WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LATEST WRF/MESO MODEL ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE
NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED. THUS HAVE TRIMMED THE SMALL CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POP A BIT ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN.

12Z AREA SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICTS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MIXING OF THIS
DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE SHOULD CAUSE SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO
THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT...WHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 WILL BE COMMON IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL
PLAIN. THICKNESSES SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S SO
LITTLE ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED IN THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS AGAIN
AROUND 20C AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH.  A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
OVER VIRGINIA AND NC...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AMIDST MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND PW OVER 1.75 INCHES.  SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER...AND THE BETTER SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD ACCORDINGLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.  HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F IN THE EAST.

THE WEAK HEIGH FALLS ALOFT AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY HELP
MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST ACTIVITY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

A HOT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WAX AND WANE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER PEAKING OVER THE SE EARLY THIS
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WEST AND YIELD TO A GENERALLY
E-W ORIENTED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WED-THU...BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE
OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...FRI-SAT. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SUN-MON...AT THE BASE OF A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS SE CANADA...
ONLY TO RE-EXPAND THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS TO SETTLE INTO NC - ONE WED INTO THU AND THE OTHER SAT NIGHT-
SUN. BOTH MODEST COOLING AND ABOVE AVG PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
OCCUR DURING THESE TIMES...IN CONTRAST TO OTHERWISE HOT CONDITIONS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT, AND SEA-
BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...AND A FEW
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING KRWI...ARE REPORTING IFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING. THE FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS WILL QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE AT KFAY AFTER 18Z.  EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR VSBYS
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.  MODELS AGAIN POINT
TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN...KFAY TO KRWI...AS THE MOST LIKELY AREA
FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE 08-12Z TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE
PRE-DAWN MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...WS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...SEC/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011420
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1020 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM MONDAY...

ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...BASED ON
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND OBSERVED TEMPERATURE TREND.

PATCHES OF EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFT/DISSIPATED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SC/GA COAST...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OF NC. THE PRESENCE OF THIS WEATHER FEATURE
WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LATEST WRF/MESO MODEL ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE
NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED. THUS HAVE TRIMMED THE SMALL CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POP A BIT ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN.

12Z AREA SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICTS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
PRESENT IN THE LOW-MID LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MIXING OF THIS
DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE SHOULD CAUSE SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO
THE MID 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT...WHILE DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 WILL BE COMMON IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL
PLAIN. THICKNESSES SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S SO
LITTLE ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED IN THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS AGAIN
AROUND 20C AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH.  A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
OVER VIRGINIA AND NC...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AMIDST MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND PW OVER 1.75 INCHES.  SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER...AND THE BETTER SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD ACCORDINGLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.  HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F IN THE EAST.

THE WEAK HEIGH FALLS ALOFT AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY HELP
MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST ACTIVITY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

A HOT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WAX AND WANE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER PEAKING OVER THE SE EARLY THIS
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WEST AND YIELD TO A GENERALLY
E-W ORIENTED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WED-THU...BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE
OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...FRI-SAT. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SUN-MON...AT THE BASE OF A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS SE CANADA...
ONLY TO RE-EXPAND THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS TO SETTLE INTO NC - ONE WED INTO THU AND THE OTHER SAT NIGHT-
SUN. BOTH MODEST COOLING AND ABOVE AVG PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
OCCUR DURING THESE TIMES...IN CONTRAST TO OTHERWISE HOT CONDITIONS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT, AND SEA-
BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...AND A FEW
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING KRWI...ARE REPORTING IFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING. THE FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS WILL QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE AT KFAY AFTER 18Z.  EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR VSBYS
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.  MODELS AGAIN POINT
TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN...KFAY TO KRWI...AS THE MOST LIKELY AREA
FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE 08-12Z TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE
PRE-DAWN MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...WS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...SEC/BLS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 011102
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
700 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM MONDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY A WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY...WITH WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THE H85
THERMAL RIDGE...WITH TEMPS AROUND 20C...SHIFTS OVER THE
PIEDMONT...AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO START OUT
AROUND 1420M...ABOUT 10M HIGHER THAN SUNDAY MORNING.  STATISTICAL
AGREEMENT IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID 90S AROUND ALL OF
CENTRAL NC.  THE LEE/THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN AND DEWPOINTS
SHOULD MIX OUT MORE IN THE WEST WITH A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY
WIND...BUT TO THE EAST DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S...WHICH WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES UP AROUND 100F. A WEAK WAVE OVER
WEST VIRGINIA..NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING...SHOULD
PASS OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...LEAVING THE SEABREEZE
AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AS THE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.  WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE POP ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE MODEST MLCAPE OF 1500 J/KG IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP.  OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE WEST.

CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL COME TO AN END EARLY
THIS EVENING.  STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN..WITH GUIDANCE AGAIN
POINTING TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS AGAIN
AROUND 20C AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH.  A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
OVER VIRGINIA AND NC...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AMIDST MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND PW OVER 1.75 INCHES.  SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER...AND THE BETTER SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD ACCORDINGLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.  HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F IN THE EAST.

THE WEAK HEIGH FALLS ALOFT AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY HELP
MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST ACTIVITY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

A HOT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WAX AND WANE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER PEAKING OVER THE SE EARLY THIS
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WEST AND YIELD TO A GENERALLY
E-W ORIENTED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WED-THU...BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE
OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...FRI-SAT. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SUN-MON...AT THE BASE OF A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS SE CANADA...
ONLY TO RE-EXPAND THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS TO SETTLE INTO NC - ONE WED INTO THU AND THE OTHER SAT NIGHT-
SUN. BOTH MODEST COOLING AND ABOVE AVG PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
OCCUR DURING THESE TIMES...IN CONTRAST TO OTHERWISE HOT CONDITIONS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT, AND SEA-
BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...AND A FEW
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING KRWI...ARE REPORTING IFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING. THE FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS WILL QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE AT KFAY AFTER 18Z.  EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR VSBYS
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.  MODELS AGAIN POINT
TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN...KFAY TO KRWI...AS THE MOST LIKELY AREA
FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE 08-12Z TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE
PRE-DAWN MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...SEC/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011102
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
700 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM MONDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY A WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY...WITH WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THE H85
THERMAL RIDGE...WITH TEMPS AROUND 20C...SHIFTS OVER THE
PIEDMONT...AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO START OUT
AROUND 1420M...ABOUT 10M HIGHER THAN SUNDAY MORNING.  STATISTICAL
AGREEMENT IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID 90S AROUND ALL OF
CENTRAL NC.  THE LEE/THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN AND DEWPOINTS
SHOULD MIX OUT MORE IN THE WEST WITH A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY
WIND...BUT TO THE EAST DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S...WHICH WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES UP AROUND 100F. A WEAK WAVE OVER
WEST VIRGINIA..NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING...SHOULD
PASS OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...LEAVING THE SEABREEZE
AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AS THE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.  WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE POP ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE MODEST MLCAPE OF 1500 J/KG IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP.  OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE WEST.

CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL COME TO AN END EARLY
THIS EVENING.  STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN..WITH GUIDANCE AGAIN
POINTING TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS AGAIN
AROUND 20C AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH.  A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
OVER VIRGINIA AND NC...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AMIDST MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND PW OVER 1.75 INCHES.  SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER...AND THE BETTER SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD ACCORDINGLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.  HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F IN THE EAST.

THE WEAK HEIGH FALLS ALOFT AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY HELP
MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST ACTIVITY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

A HOT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WAX AND WANE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER PEAKING OVER THE SE EARLY THIS
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WEST AND YIELD TO A GENERALLY
E-W ORIENTED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WED-THU...BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE
OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...FRI-SAT. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SUN-MON...AT THE BASE OF A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS SE CANADA...
ONLY TO RE-EXPAND THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS TO SETTLE INTO NC - ONE WED INTO THU AND THE OTHER SAT NIGHT-
SUN. BOTH MODEST COOLING AND ABOVE AVG PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
OCCUR DURING THESE TIMES...IN CONTRAST TO OTHERWISE HOT CONDITIONS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT, AND SEA-
BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...AND A FEW
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING KRWI...ARE REPORTING IFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING. THE FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS WILL QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE AT KFAY AFTER 18Z.  EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR VSBYS
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING.  MODELS AGAIN POINT
TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN...KFAY TO KRWI...AS THE MOST LIKELY AREA
FOR RESTRICTIONS IN THE 08-12Z TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE
PRE-DAWN MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...SEC/BLS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010721
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM MONDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY A WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY...WITH WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THE H85
THERMAL RIDGE...WITH TEMPS AROUND 20C...SHIFTS OVER THE
PIEDMONT...AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO START OUT
AROUND 1420M...ABOUT 10M HIGHER THAN SUNDAY MORNING.  STATISTICAL
AGREEMENT IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID 90S AROUND ALL OF
CENTRAL NC.  THE LEE/THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN AND DEWPOINTS
SHOULD MIX OUT MORE IN THE WEST WITH A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY
WIND...BUT TO THE EAST DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S...WHICH WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES UP AROUND 100F. A WEAK WAVE OVER
WEST VIRGINIA..NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING...SHOULD
PASS OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...LEAVING THE SEABREEZE
AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AS THE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.  WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE POP ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE MODEST MLCAPE OF 1500 J/KG IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP.  OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE WEST.

CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL COME TO AN END EARLY
THIS EVENING.  STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN..WITH GUIDANCE AGAIN
POINTING TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS AGAIN
AROUND 20C AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH.  A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
OVER VIRGINIA AND NC...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AMIDST MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND PW OVER 1.75 INCHES.  SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER...AND THE BETTER SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD ACCORDINGLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.  HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F IN THE EAST.

THE WEAK HEIGH FALLS ALOFT AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY HELP
MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST ACTIVITY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

A HOT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WAX AND WANE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER PEAKING OVER THE SE EARLY THIS
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WEST AND YIELD TO A GENERALLY
E-W ORIENTED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WED-THU...BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE
OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...FRI-SAT. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SUN-MON...AT THE BASE OF A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS SE CANADA...
ONLY TO RE-EXPAND THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS TO SETTLE INTO NC - ONE WED INTO THU AND THE OTHER SAT NIGHT-
SUN. BOTH MODEST COOLING AND ABOVE AVG PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
OCCUR DURING THESE TIMES...IN CONTRAST TO OTHERWISE HOT CONDITIONS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT, AND SEA-
BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.  THE NC
COASTAL PLAIN IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI AFTER 08Z.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNRISE...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KFAY AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE
PRE-DAWN MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...SEC/BLS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010721
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM MONDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY A WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY...WITH WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THE H85
THERMAL RIDGE...WITH TEMPS AROUND 20C...SHIFTS OVER THE
PIEDMONT...AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO START OUT
AROUND 1420M...ABOUT 10M HIGHER THAN SUNDAY MORNING.  STATISTICAL
AGREEMENT IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID 90S AROUND ALL OF
CENTRAL NC.  THE LEE/THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN AND DEWPOINTS
SHOULD MIX OUT MORE IN THE WEST WITH A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY
WIND...BUT TO THE EAST DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S...WHICH WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES UP AROUND 100F. A WEAK WAVE OVER
WEST VIRGINIA..NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING...SHOULD
PASS OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...LEAVING THE SEABREEZE
AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AS THE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.  WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE POP ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE MODEST MLCAPE OF 1500 J/KG IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP.  OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE WEST.

CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL COME TO AN END EARLY
THIS EVENING.  STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN..WITH GUIDANCE AGAIN
POINTING TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS AGAIN
AROUND 20C AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH.  A SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
OVER VIRGINIA AND NC...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
AMIDST MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND PW OVER 1.75 INCHES.  SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER...AND THE BETTER SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD ACCORDINGLY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.  HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F IN THE EAST.

THE WEAK HEIGH FALLS ALOFT AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY HELP
MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST ACTIVITY DWINDLING AFTER MIDNIGHT.  LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

A HOT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WAX AND WANE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER PEAKING OVER THE SE EARLY THIS
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WEST AND YIELD TO A GENERALLY
E-W ORIENTED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WED-THU...BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE
OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...FRI-SAT. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SUN-MON...AT THE BASE OF A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS SE CANADA...
ONLY TO RE-EXPAND THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS TO SETTLE INTO NC - ONE WED INTO THU AND THE OTHER SAT NIGHT-
SUN. BOTH MODEST COOLING AND ABOVE AVG PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
OCCUR DURING THESE TIMES...IN CONTRAST TO OTHERWISE HOT CONDITIONS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT, AND SEA-
BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.  THE NC
COASTAL PLAIN IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI AFTER 08Z.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNRISE...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KFAY AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE
PRE-DAWN MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...SEC/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010707
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM MONDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY A WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY...WITH WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THE H85
THERMAL RIDGE...WITH TEMPS AROUND 20C...SHIFTS OVER THE
PIEDMONT...AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO START OUT
AROUND 1420M...ABOUT 10M HIGHER THAN SUNDAY MORNING.  STATISTICAL
AGREEMENT IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID 90S AROUND ALL OF
CENTRAL NC.  THE LEE/THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN AND DEWPOINTS
SHOULD MIX OUT MORE IN THE WEST WITH A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY
WIND...BUT TO THE EAST DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S...WHICH WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES UP AROUND 100 DEGREES. A WEAK
WAVE OVER WEST VIRGINIA..NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...SHOULD PASS OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...LEAVING
THE SEABREEZE AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AS THE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE POP ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE MODEST MLCAPE OF 1500
J/KG IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP.  OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
THE WEST.

CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL COME TO AN END EARLY
THIS EVENING.  STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN..WITH GUIDANCE AGAIN
POINTING TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK SHEAR AXIS...AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NORTHEAST
US...IS FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT COUPLED WITH
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE INLAND RETREATING SEA BREEZE MAY RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE/POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS REGION WITH ISOLATED POPS ELSEWHERE AS UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
LOOMS CLOSE BY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES CLIMB
ANOTHER 10 METERS TO AROUND 1435M AND H8 TEMPS WARMING TO
21C...WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO AT LEAST ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DEGREE INCREASE
FROM SUNDAY`S HIGH TEMPS. HIGHS 93 TO 97 WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO
103 ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE
+100 F HEAT INDICES IN THE HAZARDS WEATHER OUTLOOK(HWO). LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT 70 TO 75.

FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT: A PROMINENT MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES QUEBEC/ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST STATES DURING THIS PERIOD...
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH MERELY BRUSHES ACROSS VA/NC... AND WHILE A SHARPENING OF THE
LEE SURFACE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED... THE FRONT ITSELF IS LIKELY TO
HOLD TO OUR NORTH... STRETCHING WEST-EAST... ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. SOUTHWESTERLY
JETTING UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THIS 850 MB TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING) AND MINOR MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (JUST 10-20
M) SHOULD HELP FUEL SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON & EVENING STORMS. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH BENEATH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET CORE... AND WHERE MID
LEVEL FLOW IS FASTER. BUT PW WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL... PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 1.7-1.9" RANGE PLACING IT ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE...
AND STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE SLOW-
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN. AND WITH THE GFS MUCAPE REACHING 1500-2500
J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... A STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORM OR
TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THICKNESSES OF MORE THAN 20 M ABOVE NORMAL
WILL EQUATE TO STEAMY HIGHS IN THE MID 90S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

A HOT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WAX AND WANE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER PEAKING OVER THE SE EARLY THIS
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WEST AND YIELD TO A GENERALLY
E-W ORIENTED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WED-THU...BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE
OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...FRI-SAT. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SUN-MON...AT THE BASE OF A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS SE CANADA...
ONLY TO RE-EXPAND THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS TO SETTLE INTO NC - ONE WED INTO THU AND THE OTHER SAT NIGHT-
SUN. BOTH MODEST COOLING AND ABOVE AVG PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
OCCUR DURING THESE TIMES...IN CONTRAST TO OTHERWISE HOT CONDITIONS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT, AND SEA-
BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.  THE NC
COASTAL PLAIN IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI AFTER 08Z.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNRISE...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KFAY AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE
PRE-DAWN MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...SEC/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010707
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM MONDAY...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY A WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY...WITH WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THE H85
THERMAL RIDGE...WITH TEMPS AROUND 20C...SHIFTS OVER THE
PIEDMONT...AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO START OUT
AROUND 1420M...ABOUT 10M HIGHER THAN SUNDAY MORNING.  STATISTICAL
AGREEMENT IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID 90S AROUND ALL OF
CENTRAL NC.  THE LEE/THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN AND DEWPOINTS
SHOULD MIX OUT MORE IN THE WEST WITH A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY
WIND...BUT TO THE EAST DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S...WHICH WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES UP AROUND 100 DEGREES. A WEAK
WAVE OVER WEST VIRGINIA..NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...SHOULD PASS OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY...LEAVING
THE SEABREEZE AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AS THE MAIN TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE POP ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE MODEST MLCAPE OF 1500
J/KG IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP.  OTHERWISE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
THE WEST.

CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL COME TO AN END EARLY
THIS EVENING.  STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN..WITH GUIDANCE AGAIN
POINTING TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK SHEAR AXIS...AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NORTHEAST
US...IS FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT COUPLED WITH
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE INLAND RETREATING SEA BREEZE MAY RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE/POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS REGION WITH ISOLATED POPS ELSEWHERE AS UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
LOOMS CLOSE BY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES CLIMB
ANOTHER 10 METERS TO AROUND 1435M AND H8 TEMPS WARMING TO
21C...WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO AT LEAST ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DEGREE INCREASE
FROM SUNDAY`S HIGH TEMPS. HIGHS 93 TO 97 WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO
103 ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE
+100 F HEAT INDICES IN THE HAZARDS WEATHER OUTLOOK(HWO). LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT 70 TO 75.

FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT: A PROMINENT MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES QUEBEC/ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST STATES DURING THIS PERIOD...
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH MERELY BRUSHES ACROSS VA/NC... AND WHILE A SHARPENING OF THE
LEE SURFACE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED... THE FRONT ITSELF IS LIKELY TO
HOLD TO OUR NORTH... STRETCHING WEST-EAST... ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. SOUTHWESTERLY
JETTING UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THIS 850 MB TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING) AND MINOR MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (JUST 10-20
M) SHOULD HELP FUEL SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON & EVENING STORMS. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH BENEATH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET CORE... AND WHERE MID
LEVEL FLOW IS FASTER. BUT PW WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL... PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 1.7-1.9" RANGE PLACING IT ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE...
AND STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE SLOW-
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN. AND WITH THE GFS MUCAPE REACHING 1500-2500
J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... A STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORM OR
TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THICKNESSES OF MORE THAN 20 M ABOVE NORMAL
WILL EQUATE TO STEAMY HIGHS IN THE MID 90S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

A HOT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WAX AND WANE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER PEAKING OVER THE SE EARLY THIS
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WEST AND YIELD TO A GENERALLY
E-W ORIENTED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WED-THU...BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE
OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...FRI-SAT. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SUN-MON...AT THE BASE OF A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS SE CANADA...
ONLY TO RE-EXPAND THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS TO SETTLE INTO NC - ONE WED INTO THU AND THE OTHER SAT NIGHT-
SUN. BOTH MODEST COOLING AND ABOVE AVG PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
OCCUR DURING THESE TIMES...IN CONTRAST TO OTHERWISE HOT CONDITIONS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT, AND SEA-
BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.  THE NC
COASTAL PLAIN IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI AFTER 08Z.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNRISE...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KFAY AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE
PRE-DAWN MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...SEC/BLS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010651
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
251 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1025 PM SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS ENDED AND
THE REST OF TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TREK NE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH...WITH CONTINUED WEST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALSO CONTINUES...THUS EXPECT
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S...
WITH A FEW PLACES POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S (NORTHWEST) OR
LINGERING IN THE MID 70S (SOUTHEAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK SHEAR AXIS...AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NORTHEAST
US...IS FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT COUPLED WITH
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE INLAND RETREATING SEA BREEZE MAY RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE/POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS REGION WITH ISOLATED POPS ELSEWHERE AS UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
LOOMS CLOSE BY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES CLIMB
ANOTHER 10 METERS TO AROUND 1435M AND H8 TEMPS WARMING TO
21C...WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO AT LEAST ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DEGREE INCREASE
FROM SUNDAY`S HIGH TEMPS. HIGHS 93 TO 97 WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO
103 ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE
+100 F HEAT INDICES IN THE HAZARDS WEATHER OUTLOOK(HWO). LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT 70 TO 75.

FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT: A PROMINENT MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES QUEBEC/ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST STATES DURING THIS PERIOD...
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH MERELY BRUSHES ACROSS VA/NC... AND WHILE A SHARPENING OF THE
LEE SURFACE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED... THE FRONT ITSELF IS LIKELY TO
HOLD TO OUR NORTH... STRETCHING WEST-EAST... ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. SOUTHWESTERLY
JETTING UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THIS 850 MB TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING) AND MINOR MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (JUST 10-20
M) SHOULD HELP FUEL SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON & EVENING STORMS. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH BENEATH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET CORE... AND WHERE MID
LEVEL FLOW IS FASTER. BUT PW WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL... PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 1.7-1.9" RANGE PLACING IT ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE...
AND STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE SLOW-
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN. AND WITH THE GFS MUCAPE REACHING 1500-2500
J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... A STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORM OR
TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THICKNESSES OF MORE THAN 20 M ABOVE NORMAL
WILL EQUATE TO STEAMY HIGHS IN THE MID 90S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

A HOT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WAX AND WANE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER PEAKING OVER THE SE EARLY THIS
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WEST AND YIELD TO A GENERALLY
E-W ORIENTED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WED-THU...BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE
OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...FRI-SAT. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SUN-MON...AT THE BASE OF A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS SE CANADA...
ONLY TO RE-EXPAND THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS TO SETTLE INTO NC - ONE WED INTO THU AND THE OTHER SAT NIGHT-
SUN. BOTH MODEST COOLING AND ABOVE AVG PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
OCCUR DURING THESE TIMES...IN CONTRAST TO OTHERWISE HOT CONDITIONS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT, AND SEA-
BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.  THE NC
COASTAL PLAIN IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI AFTER 08Z.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNRISE...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KFAY AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE
PRE-DAWN MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...SEC/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010651
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
251 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1025 PM SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS ENDED AND
THE REST OF TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TREK NE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH...WITH CONTINUED WEST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALSO CONTINUES...THUS EXPECT
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S...
WITH A FEW PLACES POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S (NORTHWEST) OR
LINGERING IN THE MID 70S (SOUTHEAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK SHEAR AXIS...AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NORTHEAST
US...IS FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT COUPLED WITH
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE INLAND RETREATING SEA BREEZE MAY RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE/POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS REGION WITH ISOLATED POPS ELSEWHERE AS UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
LOOMS CLOSE BY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES CLIMB
ANOTHER 10 METERS TO AROUND 1435M AND H8 TEMPS WARMING TO
21C...WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO AT LEAST ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DEGREE INCREASE
FROM SUNDAY`S HIGH TEMPS. HIGHS 93 TO 97 WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO
103 ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE
+100 F HEAT INDICES IN THE HAZARDS WEATHER OUTLOOK(HWO). LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT 70 TO 75.

FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT: A PROMINENT MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES QUEBEC/ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST STATES DURING THIS PERIOD...
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH MERELY BRUSHES ACROSS VA/NC... AND WHILE A SHARPENING OF THE
LEE SURFACE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED... THE FRONT ITSELF IS LIKELY TO
HOLD TO OUR NORTH... STRETCHING WEST-EAST... ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. SOUTHWESTERLY
JETTING UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THIS 850 MB TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING) AND MINOR MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (JUST 10-20
M) SHOULD HELP FUEL SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON & EVENING STORMS. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH BENEATH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET CORE... AND WHERE MID
LEVEL FLOW IS FASTER. BUT PW WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL... PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 1.7-1.9" RANGE PLACING IT ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE...
AND STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE SLOW-
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN. AND WITH THE GFS MUCAPE REACHING 1500-2500
J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... A STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORM OR
TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THICKNESSES OF MORE THAN 20 M ABOVE NORMAL
WILL EQUATE TO STEAMY HIGHS IN THE MID 90S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

A HOT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL WAX AND WANE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER PEAKING OVER THE SE EARLY THIS
WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY RETREAT WEST AND YIELD TO A GENERALLY
E-W ORIENTED MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS WED-THU...BEFORE EXPANDING NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE
OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...FRI-SAT. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE SUN-MON...AT THE BASE OF A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS SE CANADA...
ONLY TO RE-EXPAND THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE EBB AND FLOW OF THE PATTERN ALOFT...AND ASSOCIATED PERIODIC
RELAXATION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WILL ALLOW A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS TO SETTLE INTO NC - ONE WED INTO THU AND THE OTHER SAT NIGHT-
SUN. BOTH MODEST COOLING AND ABOVE AVG PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
OCCUR DURING THESE TIMES...IN CONTRAST TO OTHERWISE HOT CONDITIONS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...WITH DIURNALLY; PIEDMONT, AND SEA-
BREEZE-DRIVEN CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.  THE NC
COASTAL PLAIN IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI AFTER 08Z.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNRISE...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KFAY AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE
PRE-DAWN MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...SEC/BLS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010532
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS ENDED AND
THE REST OF TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TREK NE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH...WITH CONTINUED WEST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALSO CONTINUES...THUS EXPECT
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S...
WITH A FEW PLACES POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S (NORTHWEST) OR
LINGERING IN THE MID 70S (SOUTHEAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK SHEAR AXIS...AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NORTHEAST
US...IS FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT COUPLED WITH
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE INLAND RETREATING SEA BREEZE MAY RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE/POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS REGION WITH ISOLATED POPS ELSEWHERE AS UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
LOOMS CLOSE BY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES CLIMB
ANOTHER 10 METERS TO AROUND 1435M AND H8 TEMPS WARMING TO
21C...WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO AT LEAST ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DEGREE INCREASE
FROM SUNDAY`S HIGH TEMPS. HIGHS 93 TO 97 WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO
103 ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE
+100 F HEAT INDICES IN THE HAZARDS WEATHER OUTLOOK(HWO). LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT 70 TO 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT: A PROMINENT MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES QUEBEC/ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST STATES DURING THIS PERIOD...
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH MERELY BRUSHES ACROSS VA/NC... AND WHILE A SHARPENING OF THE
LEE SURFACE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED... THE FRONT ITSELF IS LIKELY TO
HOLD TO OUR NORTH... STRETCHING WEST-EAST... ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. SOUTHWESTERLY
JETTING UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THIS 850 MB TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING) AND MINOR MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (JUST 10-20
M) SHOULD HELP FUEL SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON & EVENING STORMS. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH BENEATH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET CORE... AND WHERE MID
LEVEL FLOW IS FASTER. BUT PW WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL... PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 1.7-1.9" RANGE PLACING IT ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE...
AND STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE SLOW-
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN. AND WITH THE GFS MUCAPE REACHING 1500-2500
J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... A STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORM OR
TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THICKNESSES OF MORE THAN 20 M ABOVE NORMAL
WILL EQUATE TO STEAMY HIGHS IN THE MID 90S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE
RESULTS IN RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS NC. THE NAM DEPICTS SLIGHTLY STRONGER HEIGHT RISES (15-
25 M) THAN THE GFS (AROUND 10 M) AND ALSO BRINGS IN MUCH LOWER PW
(UNDER 1.5") OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND
AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.9-2.0". THE
GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY BASED ON THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGE. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS... PRIMARILY
ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH SUCH HIGH PW AND LOW MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. WITH
THICKNESSES A TAD LOWER BUT REMAINING HIGH... AND A GOOD CHANCE OF
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY... WILL STICK WITH TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER THAN TUE ESPECIALLY NORTH... WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
90S AND MUGGY LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH. A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SW CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK... WHILE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE
OR SOME OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARM
TEMPS ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH
DAYS... WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY 15-20 M
ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT/SUN: MORE OF THE SAME... WITH FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES DOWN THROUGH SRN IL/MO INTO OK SAT MORNING... A TIMING AGREED
UPON BY THE OP GFS/ECMWF. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS APT TO
STRENGTHEN A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NC AS THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED... AND WITH MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INCREASE... WE MAY SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE LITTLE FAITH THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY PUSH DOWN WELL INTO NC BY LATE SUN AS THE GFS DEPICTS... SO
WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL BUT TEMPERED FROM EARLY-WEEK READINGS
BY PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90 AND LOWS
AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.  THE NC
COASTAL PLAIN IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI AFTER 08Z.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNRISE...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KFAY AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE
PRE-DAWN MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SEC/BLS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010532
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS ENDED AND
THE REST OF TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TREK NE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH...WITH CONTINUED WEST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALSO CONTINUES...THUS EXPECT
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S...
WITH A FEW PLACES POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S (NORTHWEST) OR
LINGERING IN THE MID 70S (SOUTHEAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK SHEAR AXIS...AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NORTHEAST
US...IS FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT COUPLED WITH
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE INLAND RETREATING SEA BREEZE MAY RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE/POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS REGION WITH ISOLATED POPS ELSEWHERE AS UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
LOOMS CLOSE BY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES CLIMB
ANOTHER 10 METERS TO AROUND 1435M AND H8 TEMPS WARMING TO
21C...WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO AT LEAST ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DEGREE INCREASE
FROM SUNDAY`S HIGH TEMPS. HIGHS 93 TO 97 WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO
103 ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE
+100 F HEAT INDICES IN THE HAZARDS WEATHER OUTLOOK(HWO). LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT 70 TO 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT: A PROMINENT MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES QUEBEC/ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST STATES DURING THIS PERIOD...
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH MERELY BRUSHES ACROSS VA/NC... AND WHILE A SHARPENING OF THE
LEE SURFACE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED... THE FRONT ITSELF IS LIKELY TO
HOLD TO OUR NORTH... STRETCHING WEST-EAST... ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. SOUTHWESTERLY
JETTING UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THIS 850 MB TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING) AND MINOR MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (JUST 10-20
M) SHOULD HELP FUEL SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON & EVENING STORMS. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH BENEATH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET CORE... AND WHERE MID
LEVEL FLOW IS FASTER. BUT PW WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL... PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 1.7-1.9" RANGE PLACING IT ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE...
AND STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE SLOW-
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN. AND WITH THE GFS MUCAPE REACHING 1500-2500
J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... A STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORM OR
TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THICKNESSES OF MORE THAN 20 M ABOVE NORMAL
WILL EQUATE TO STEAMY HIGHS IN THE MID 90S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE
RESULTS IN RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS NC. THE NAM DEPICTS SLIGHTLY STRONGER HEIGHT RISES (15-
25 M) THAN THE GFS (AROUND 10 M) AND ALSO BRINGS IN MUCH LOWER PW
(UNDER 1.5") OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND
AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.9-2.0". THE
GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY BASED ON THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGE. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS... PRIMARILY
ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH SUCH HIGH PW AND LOW MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. WITH
THICKNESSES A TAD LOWER BUT REMAINING HIGH... AND A GOOD CHANCE OF
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY... WILL STICK WITH TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER THAN TUE ESPECIALLY NORTH... WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
90S AND MUGGY LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH. A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SW CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK... WHILE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE
OR SOME OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARM
TEMPS ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH
DAYS... WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY 15-20 M
ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT/SUN: MORE OF THE SAME... WITH FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES DOWN THROUGH SRN IL/MO INTO OK SAT MORNING... A TIMING AGREED
UPON BY THE OP GFS/ECMWF. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS APT TO
STRENGTHEN A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NC AS THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED... AND WITH MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INCREASE... WE MAY SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE LITTLE FAITH THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY PUSH DOWN WELL INTO NC BY LATE SUN AS THE GFS DEPICTS... SO
WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL BUT TEMPERED FROM EARLY-WEEK READINGS
BY PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90 AND LOWS
AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...

SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.  THE NC
COASTAL PLAIN IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY FROM KFAY NORTH TO KRWI AFTER 08Z.  VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER SUNRISE...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
KFAY AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE
PRE-DAWN MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SEC/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010226
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1026 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS ENDED AND
THE REST OF TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TREK NE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH...WITH CONTINUED WEST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALSO CONTINUES...THUS EXPECT
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S...
WITH A FEW PLACES POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S (NORTHWEST) OR
LINGERING IN THE MID 70S (SOUTHEAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK SHEAR AXIS...AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NORTHEAST
US...IS FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT COUPLED WITH
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE INLAND RETREATING SEA BREEZE MAY RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE/POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS REGION WITH ISOLATED POPS ELSEWHERE AS UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
LOOMS CLOSE BY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES CLIMB
ANOTHER 10 METERS TO AROUND 1435M AND H8 TEMPS WARMING TO
21C...WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO AT LEAST ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DEGREE INCREASE
FROM SUNDAY`S HIGH TEMPS. HIGHS 93 TO 97 WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO
103 ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE
+100 F HEAT INDICES IN THE HAZARDS WEATHER OUTLOOK(HWO). LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT 70 TO 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT: A PROMINENT MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES QUEBEC/ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST STATES DURING THIS PERIOD...
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH MERELY BRUSHES ACROSS VA/NC... AND WHILE A SHARPENING OF THE
LEE SURFACE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED... THE FRONT ITSELF IS LIKELY TO
HOLD TO OUR NORTH... STRETCHING WEST-EAST... ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. SOUTHWESTERLY
JETTING UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THIS 850 MB TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING) AND MINOR MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (JUST 10-20
M) SHOULD HELP FUEL SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON & EVENING STORMS. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH BENEATH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET CORE... AND WHERE MID
LEVEL FLOW IS FASTER. BUT PW WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL... PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 1.7-1.9" RANGE PLACING IT ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE...
AND STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE SLOW-
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN. AND WITH THE GFS MUCAPE REACHING 1500-2500
J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... A STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORM OR
TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THICKNESSES OF MORE THAN 20 M ABOVE NORMAL
WILL EQUATE TO STEAMY HIGHS IN THE MID 90S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE
RESULTS IN RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS NC. THE NAM DEPICTS SLIGHTLY STRONGER HEIGHT RISES (15-
25 M) THAN THE GFS (AROUND 10 M) AND ALSO BRINGS IN MUCH LOWER PW
(UNDER 1.5") OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND
AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.9-2.0". THE
GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY BASED ON THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGE. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS... PRIMARILY
ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH SUCH HIGH PW AND LOW MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. WITH
THICKNESSES A TAD LOWER BUT REMAINING HIGH... AND A GOOD CHANCE OF
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY... WILL STICK WITH TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER THAN TUE ESPECIALLY NORTH... WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
90S AND MUGGY LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH. A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SW CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK... WHILE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE
OR SOME OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARM
TEMPS ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH
DAYS... WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY 15-20 M
ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT/SUN: MORE OF THE SAME... WITH FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES DOWN THROUGH SRN IL/MO INTO OK SAT MORNING... A TIMING AGREED
UPON BY THE OP GFS/ECMWF. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS APT TO
STRENGTHEN A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NC AS THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED... AND WITH MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INCREASE... WE MAY SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE LITTLE FAITH THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY PUSH DOWN WELL INTO NC BY LATE SUN AS THE GFS DEPICTS... SO
WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL BUT TEMPERED FROM EARLY-WEEK READINGS
BY PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90 AND LOWS
AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 758 PM SUNDAY...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND S TO SW WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. REMAINING HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT LOW STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLY AT KRDU AND MOST
LIKELY AT KRWI AND KFAY. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY 13Z...
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON... CHANCES ARE
LOW THAT ANY PARTICULAR SITE WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...FEATURING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SEC/CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010226
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1026 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM SUNDAY...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS ENDED AND
THE REST OF TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TREK NE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH...WITH CONTINUED WEST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALSO CONTINUES...THUS EXPECT
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S...
WITH A FEW PLACES POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S (NORTHWEST) OR
LINGERING IN THE MID 70S (SOUTHEAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK SHEAR AXIS...AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NORTHEAST
US...IS FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT COUPLED WITH
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE INLAND RETREATING SEA BREEZE MAY RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE/POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS REGION WITH ISOLATED POPS ELSEWHERE AS UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
LOOMS CLOSE BY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES CLIMB
ANOTHER 10 METERS TO AROUND 1435M AND H8 TEMPS WARMING TO
21C...WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO AT LEAST ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DEGREE INCREASE
FROM SUNDAY`S HIGH TEMPS. HIGHS 93 TO 97 WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO
103 ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE
+100 F HEAT INDICES IN THE HAZARDS WEATHER OUTLOOK(HWO). LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT 70 TO 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT: A PROMINENT MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES QUEBEC/ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST STATES DURING THIS PERIOD...
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH MERELY BRUSHES ACROSS VA/NC... AND WHILE A SHARPENING OF THE
LEE SURFACE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED... THE FRONT ITSELF IS LIKELY TO
HOLD TO OUR NORTH... STRETCHING WEST-EAST... ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. SOUTHWESTERLY
JETTING UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THIS 850 MB TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING) AND MINOR MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (JUST 10-20
M) SHOULD HELP FUEL SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON & EVENING STORMS. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH BENEATH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET CORE... AND WHERE MID
LEVEL FLOW IS FASTER. BUT PW WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL... PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 1.7-1.9" RANGE PLACING IT ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE...
AND STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE SLOW-
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN. AND WITH THE GFS MUCAPE REACHING 1500-2500
J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... A STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORM OR
TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THICKNESSES OF MORE THAN 20 M ABOVE NORMAL
WILL EQUATE TO STEAMY HIGHS IN THE MID 90S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE
RESULTS IN RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS NC. THE NAM DEPICTS SLIGHTLY STRONGER HEIGHT RISES (15-
25 M) THAN THE GFS (AROUND 10 M) AND ALSO BRINGS IN MUCH LOWER PW
(UNDER 1.5") OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND
AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.9-2.0". THE
GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY BASED ON THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGE. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS... PRIMARILY
ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH SUCH HIGH PW AND LOW MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. WITH
THICKNESSES A TAD LOWER BUT REMAINING HIGH... AND A GOOD CHANCE OF
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY... WILL STICK WITH TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER THAN TUE ESPECIALLY NORTH... WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
90S AND MUGGY LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH. A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SW CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK... WHILE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE
OR SOME OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARM
TEMPS ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH
DAYS... WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY 15-20 M
ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT/SUN: MORE OF THE SAME... WITH FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES DOWN THROUGH SRN IL/MO INTO OK SAT MORNING... A TIMING AGREED
UPON BY THE OP GFS/ECMWF. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS APT TO
STRENGTHEN A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NC AS THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED... AND WITH MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INCREASE... WE MAY SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE LITTLE FAITH THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY PUSH DOWN WELL INTO NC BY LATE SUN AS THE GFS DEPICTS... SO
WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL BUT TEMPERED FROM EARLY-WEEK READINGS
BY PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90 AND LOWS
AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 758 PM SUNDAY...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND S TO SW WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. REMAINING HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT LOW STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLY AT KRDU AND MOST
LIKELY AT KRWI AND KFAY. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY 13Z...
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON... CHANCES ARE
LOW THAT ANY PARTICULAR SITE WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...FEATURING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SEC/CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010001
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
801 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...

STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SE US TODAY.
CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY WILL SKIRT ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...LIFTING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TONIGHT.

VORTICITY SHEAR AXIS ALOFT BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA AND INLAND
PUSH OF SEABREEZE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON...HELD IN CHECK BY THE DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DOMINATE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT. CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO HAVE FORECAST DRY AFTER 04 TO 05Z. MILD
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT UNDER PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS 69 TO 74.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK SHEAR AXIS...AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NORTHEAST
US...IS FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT COUPLED WITH
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE INLAND RETREATING SEA BREEZE MAY RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE/POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS REGION WITH ISOLATED POPS ELSEWHERE AS UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
LOOMS CLOSE BY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES CLIMB
ANOTHER 10 METERS TO AROUND 1435M AND H8 TEMPS WARMING TO
21C...WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO AT LEAST ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DEGREE INCREASE
FROM SUNDAY`S HIGH TEMPS. HIGHS 93 TO 97 WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO
103 ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE
+100 F HEAT INDICES IN THE HAZARDS WEATHER OUTLOOK(HWO). LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT 70 TO 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT: A PROMINENT MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES QUEBEC/ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST STATES DURING THIS PERIOD...
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH MERELY BRUSHES ACROSS VA/NC... AND WHILE A SHARPENING OF THE
LEE SURFACE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED... THE FRONT ITSELF IS LIKELY TO
HOLD TO OUR NORTH... STRETCHING WEST-EAST... ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. SOUTHWESTERLY
JETTING UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THIS 850 MB TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING) AND MINOR MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (JUST 10-20
M) SHOULD HELP FUEL SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON & EVENING STORMS. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH BENEATH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET CORE... AND WHERE MID
LEVEL FLOW IS FASTER. BUT PW WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL... PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 1.7-1.9" RANGE PLACING IT ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE...
AND STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE SLOW-
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN. AND WITH THE GFS MUCAPE REACHING 1500-2500
J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... A STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORM OR
TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THICKNESSES OF MORE THAN 20 M ABOVE NORMAL
WILL EQUATE TO STEAMY HIGHS IN THE MID 90S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE
RESULTS IN RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS NC. THE NAM DEPICTS SLIGHTLY STRONGER HEIGHT RISES (15-
25 M) THAN THE GFS (AROUND 10 M) AND ALSO BRINGS IN MUCH LOWER PW
(UNDER 1.5") OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND
AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.9-2.0". THE
GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY BASED ON THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGE. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS... PRIMARILY
ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH SUCH HIGH PW AND LOW MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. WITH
THICKNESSES A TAD LOWER BUT REMAINING HIGH... AND A GOOD CHANCE OF
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY... WILL STICK WITH TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER THAN TUE ESPECIALLY NORTH... WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
90S AND MUGGY LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH. A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SW CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK... WHILE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE
OR SOME OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARM
TEMPS ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH
DAYS... WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY 15-20 M
ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT/SUN: MORE OF THE SAME... WITH FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES DOWN THROUGH SRN IL/MO INTO OK SAT MORNING... A TIMING AGREED
UPON BY THE OP GFS/ECMWF. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS APT TO
STRENGTHEN A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NC AS THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED... AND WITH MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INCREASE... WE MAY SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE LITTLE FAITH THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY PUSH DOWN WELL INTO NC BY LATE SUN AS THE GFS DEPICTS... SO
WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL BUT TEMPERED FROM EARLY-WEEK READINGS
BY PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90 AND LOWS
AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 758 PM SUNDAY...

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND S TO SW WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. REMAINING HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT LOW STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLY AT KRDU AND MOST
LIKELY AT KRWI AND KFAY. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR BY 13Z...
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON... CHANCES ARE
LOW THAT ANY PARTICULAR SITE WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS ACTIVITY.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...FEATURING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SEC/CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 311906
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY... BEFORE RETREATING THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...

STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SE US TODAY.
CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY WILL SKIRT ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...LIFTING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TONIGHT.

VORTICITY SHEAR AXIS ALOFT BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA AND INLAND
PUSH OF SEABREEZE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON...HELD IN CHECK BY THE DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DOMINATE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT. CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO HAVE FORECAST DRY AFTER 04 TO 05Z. MILD
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT UNDER PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS 69 TO 74.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK SHEAR AXIS...AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NORTHEAST
US...IS FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT COUPLED WITH
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE INLAND RETREATING SEA BREEZE MAY RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE/POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS REGION WITH ISOLATED POPS ELSEWHERE AS UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
LOOMS CLOSE BY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES CLIMB
ANOTHER 10 METERS TO AROUND 1435M AND H8 TEMPS WARMING TO
21C...WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO AT LEAST ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DEGREE INCREASE
FROM SUNDAY`S HIGH TEMPS. HIGHS 93 TO 97 WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO
103 ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE
+100 F HEAT INDICES IN THE HAZARDS WEATHER OUTLOOK(HWO). LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT 70 TO 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT: A PROMINENT MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES QUEBEC/ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST STATES DURING THIS PERIOD...
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH MERELY BRUSHES ACROSS VA/NC... AND WHILE A SHARPENING OF THE
LEE SURFACE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED... THE FRONT ITSELF IS LIKELY TO
HOLD TO OUR NORTH... STRETCHING WEST-EAST... ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. SOUTHWESTERLY
JETTING UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THIS 850 MB TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING) AND MINOR MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (JUST 10-20
M) SHOULD HELP FUEL SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON & EVENING STORMS. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH BENEATH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET CORE... AND WHERE MID
LEVEL FLOW IS FASTER. BUT PW WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL... PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 1.7-1.9" RANGE PLACING IT ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE...
AND STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE SLOW-
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN. AND WITH THE GFS MUCAPE REACHING 1500-2500
J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... A STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORM OR
TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THICKNESSES OF MORE THAN 20 M ABOVE NORMAL
WILL EQUATE TO STEAMY HIGHS IN THE MID 90S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE
RESULTS IN RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS NC. THE NAM DEPICTS SLIGHTLY STRONGER HEIGHT RISES (15-
25 M) THAN THE GFS (AROUND 10 M) AND ALSO BRINGS IN MUCH LOWER PW
(UNDER 1.5") OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND
AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.9-2.0". THE
GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY BASED ON THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGE. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS... PRIMARILY
ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH SUCH HIGH PW AND LOW MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. WITH
THICKNESSES A TAD LOWER BUT REMAINING HIGH... AND A GOOD CHANCE OF
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY... WILL STICK WITH TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER THAN TUE ESPECIALLY NORTH... WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
90S AND MUGGY LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH. A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SW CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK... WHILE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE
OR SOME OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARM
TEMPS ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH
DAYS... WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY 15-20 M
ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT/SUN: MORE OF THE SAME... WITH FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES DOWN THROUGH SRN IL/MO INTO OK SAT MORNING... A TIMING AGREED
UPON BY THE OP GFS/ECMWF. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS APT TO
STRENGTHEN A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NC AS THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED... AND WITH MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INCREASE... WE MAY SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE LITTLE FAITH THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY PUSH DOWN WELL INTO NC BY LATE SUN AS THE GFS DEPICTS... SO
WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL BUT TEMPERED FROM EARLY-WEEK READINGS
BY PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90 AND LOWS
AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...

STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES TODAY...LIMITING COVERAGE TO ISOLATED THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S TO SW 10KT OR LESS. OVERNIGHT...
WILL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WHICH FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
MIXTURE OF FOG AND STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS(KRDU/KFAY/KRWI)...WHERE BROKEN MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...FEATURING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 311906
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY... BEFORE RETREATING THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...

STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SE US TODAY.
CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY WILL SKIRT ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...LIFTING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TONIGHT.

VORTICITY SHEAR AXIS ALOFT BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA AND INLAND
PUSH OF SEABREEZE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON...HELD IN CHECK BY THE DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DOMINATE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT. CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO HAVE FORECAST DRY AFTER 04 TO 05Z. MILD
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT UNDER PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS 69 TO 74.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK SHEAR AXIS...AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NORTHEAST
US...IS FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT COUPLED WITH
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE INLAND RETREATING SEA BREEZE MAY RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE/POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS REGION WITH ISOLATED POPS ELSEWHERE AS UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
LOOMS CLOSE BY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES CLIMB
ANOTHER 10 METERS TO AROUND 1435M AND H8 TEMPS WARMING TO
21C...WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO AT LEAST ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DEGREE INCREASE
FROM SUNDAY`S HIGH TEMPS. HIGHS 93 TO 97 WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO
103 ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE
+100 F HEAT INDICES IN THE HAZARDS WEATHER OUTLOOK(HWO). LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT 70 TO 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT: A PROMINENT MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES QUEBEC/ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST STATES DURING THIS PERIOD...
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH MERELY BRUSHES ACROSS VA/NC... AND WHILE A SHARPENING OF THE
LEE SURFACE TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED... THE FRONT ITSELF IS LIKELY TO
HOLD TO OUR NORTH... STRETCHING WEST-EAST... ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. SOUTHWESTERLY
JETTING UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THIS 850 MB TROUGH (AND ASSOCIATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING) AND MINOR MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS (JUST 10-20
M) SHOULD HELP FUEL SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON & EVENING STORMS. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AND STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTH BENEATH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET CORE... AND WHERE MID
LEVEL FLOW IS FASTER. BUT PW WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL... PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 1.7-1.9" RANGE PLACING IT ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE...
AND STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK... SO ANY SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE SLOW-
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN. AND WITH THE GFS MUCAPE REACHING 1500-2500
J/KG OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC... A STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORM OR
TWO CAN`T BE RULED OUT. THICKNESSES OF MORE THAN 20 M ABOVE NORMAL
WILL EQUATE TO STEAMY HIGHS IN THE MID 90S... WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: THE DEPARTURE OF THE TROUGH WELL TO OUR NE
RESULTS IN RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE FLAT (W-E ORIENTED) MID LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS NC. THE NAM DEPICTS SLIGHTLY STRONGER HEIGHT RISES (15-
25 M) THAN THE GFS (AROUND 10 M) AND ALSO BRINGS IN MUCH LOWER PW
(UNDER 1.5") OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A STRONGER 850-700 MB NW WIND
AS COMPARED TO THE GFS... WHICH KEEPS PW VALUES UP TO 1.9-2.0". THE
GFS`S MORE SUBDUED TROUGH INFLUENCE APPEARS MORE LIKELY BASED ON THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGE. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS... PRIMARILY
ALONG/EAST OF THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
INLAND-TRACKING SEA BREEZE. WITH SUCH HIGH PW AND LOW MID LEVEL
FLOW... SLOW-MOVERS AND HEAVY-RAINERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. WITH
THICKNESSES A TAD LOWER BUT REMAINING HIGH... AND A GOOD CHANCE OF
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY... WILL STICK WITH TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO LOWER THAN TUE ESPECIALLY NORTH... WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
90S AND MUGGY LOWS AGAIN IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

FOR THU/FRI: CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL WARMTH. A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/SW CANADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK... WHILE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSED ALONG A SEA BREEZE
OR SOME OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY REMAIN A GOOD BET... DESPITE THE WARM
TEMPS ALOFT. WILL RETAIN AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES BOTH
DAYS... WITH TEMPS HOLDING ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES STAY 15-20 M
ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR SAT/SUN: MORE OF THE SAME... WITH FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS
THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC... TAKING A COLD FRONT TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES DOWN THROUGH SRN IL/MO INTO OK SAT MORNING... A TIMING AGREED
UPON BY THE OP GFS/ECMWF. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS APT TO
STRENGTHEN A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NC AS THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED... AND WITH MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INCREASE... WE MAY SEE BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE LITTLE FAITH THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
ACTUALLY PUSH DOWN WELL INTO NC BY LATE SUN AS THE GFS DEPICTS... SO
WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL BUT TEMPERED FROM EARLY-WEEK READINGS
BY PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 90 AND LOWS
AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...

STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES TODAY...LIMITING COVERAGE TO ISOLATED THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S TO SW 10KT OR LESS. OVERNIGHT...
WILL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WHICH FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
MIXTURE OF FOG AND STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS(KRDU/KFAY/KRWI)...WHERE BROKEN MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...FEATURING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 311903
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
303 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY... BEFORE RETREATING THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...

STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SE US TODAY.
CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY WILL SKIRT ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...LIFTING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TONIGHT.

VORTICITY SHEAR AXIS ALOFT BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA AND INLAND
PUSH OF SEABREEZE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON...HELD IN CHECK BY THE DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DOMINATE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT. CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO HAVE FORECAST DRY AFTER 04 TO 05Z. MILD
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT UNDER PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS 69 TO 74.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM SUNDAY...

A WEAK SHEAR AXIS...AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NORTHEAST
US...IS FORECAST TO CROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT COUPLED WITH
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE INLAND RETREATING SEA BREEZE MAY RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE/POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS REGION WITH ISOLATED POPS ELSEWHERE AS UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
LOOMS CLOSE BY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES CLIMB
ANOTHER 10 METERS TO AROUND 1435M AND H8 TEMPS WARMING TO
21C...WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO AT LEAST ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DEGREE INCREASE
FROM SUNDAY`S HIGH TEMPS. HIGHS 93 TO 97 WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO
103 ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE
+100 F HEAT INDICES IN THE HAZARDS WEATHER OUTLOOK(HWO). LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT 70 TO 75.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM SUNDAY...

SUMMERTIME SUBTROPICAL RIDGING REMAINS THE MAIN THEME OF OUR
FORECAST THIS WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN EARLY TO MID WEEK... THEN CONTRACT LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER... THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEK.
MOISTURE... DAILY INSTABILITY... AND A LEE TROUGH/WEAKENING SURFACE
COLD FRONTS (WED-THU)... THEN AGAIN TOWARD THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE
SPARK FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WED-SAT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL INCLUDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT/HUMID
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. DAILY LOWS 70-75. HIGHS 90-95. THESE
READINGS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 20 POP TUE... WILL
INCREASE TO 30-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS
WED-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...

STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES TODAY...LIMITING COVERAGE TO ISOLATED THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S TO SW 10KT OR LESS. OVERNIGHT...
WILL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WHICH FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
MIXTURE OF FOG AND STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS(KRDU/KFAY/KRWI)...WHERE BROKEN MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...FEATURING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 311746
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY... BEFORE RETREATING THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM SUNDAY...

STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SE US TODAY.
CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY WILL SKIRT ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...LIFTING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TONIGHT.

A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS REALLY HIT
THE SKIDS AS IT APPROACHED THE TRIAD OVER THE LAST
HOUR...ENCOUNTERING THE DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DOMINATE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT. THIS SHOULD PROVE THE CASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR
NW PIEDMONT IN PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK DPVA LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN/SANDHILL ZONES SEEING SIMILAR CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES FROM
THE INLAND PUSH OF THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY.

MORNING BURN-OFF OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD NOT TEMPER DAYTIME HEATING.
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE ~15M FROM
YESTERDAY.... SUGGESTS HIGHS 90 TO 95F WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING
100F ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SANDHILLS.

MILD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT UNDER PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS 69 TO 74.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER ALONG THE SE COAST TODAY...WILL DRIFT WWD ON
MONDAY AND ALLOW A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
THE SHORT WAVE THAT`S MOVING NE ACROSS THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...TO DRIFT EWD ON MONDAY AND SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. DESPITE THIS UPPER SUPPORT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...THUS ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS
WITH THIS FEATURE LATE IN THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED IN NATURE. IN FACT...MOST CAMS KEEP CENTRAL NC DRY DURING
THE DAYTIME. INSTEAD...THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE HEAT...AS
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB...REACHING
1435M...AND 850MB TEMP REACHING 21C...ALL SUGGESTING HIGHS RANGING
FROM 91-95 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TRIANGLE...AND MID 90S ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS CROSSES
THE AREA. LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM SUNDAY...

SUMMERTIME SUBTROPICAL RIDGING REMAINS THE MAIN THEME OF OUR
FORECAST THIS WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN EARLY TO MID WEEK... THEN CONTRACT LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER... THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEK.
MOISTURE... DAILY INSTABILITY... AND A LEE TROUGH/WEAKENING SURFACE
COLD FRONTS (WED-THU)... THEN AGAIN TOWARD THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE
SPARK FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WED-SAT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL INCLUDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT/HUMID
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. DAILY LOWS 70-75. HIGHS 90-95. THESE
READINGS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 20 POP TUE... WILL
INCREASE TO 30-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS
WED-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...

STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES TODAY...LIMITING COVERAGE TO ISOLATED THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S TO SW 10KT OR LESS. OVERNIGHT...
WILL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WHICH FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
MIXTURE OF FOG AND STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS(KRDU/KFAY/KRWI)...WHERE BROKEN MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...FEATURING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 311746
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY... BEFORE RETREATING THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM SUNDAY...

STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SE US TODAY.
CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY WILL SKIRT ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...LIFTING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TONIGHT.

A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS REALLY HIT
THE SKIDS AS IT APPROACHED THE TRIAD OVER THE LAST
HOUR...ENCOUNTERING THE DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DOMINATE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT. THIS SHOULD PROVE THE CASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR
NW PIEDMONT IN PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK DPVA LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN/SANDHILL ZONES SEEING SIMILAR CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES FROM
THE INLAND PUSH OF THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY.

MORNING BURN-OFF OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD NOT TEMPER DAYTIME HEATING.
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE ~15M FROM
YESTERDAY.... SUGGESTS HIGHS 90 TO 95F WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING
100F ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SANDHILLS.

MILD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT UNDER PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS 69 TO 74.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER ALONG THE SE COAST TODAY...WILL DRIFT WWD ON
MONDAY AND ALLOW A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
THE SHORT WAVE THAT`S MOVING NE ACROSS THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...TO DRIFT EWD ON MONDAY AND SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. DESPITE THIS UPPER SUPPORT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...THUS ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS
WITH THIS FEATURE LATE IN THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED IN NATURE. IN FACT...MOST CAMS KEEP CENTRAL NC DRY DURING
THE DAYTIME. INSTEAD...THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE HEAT...AS
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB...REACHING
1435M...AND 850MB TEMP REACHING 21C...ALL SUGGESTING HIGHS RANGING
FROM 91-95 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TRIANGLE...AND MID 90S ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS CROSSES
THE AREA. LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM SUNDAY...

SUMMERTIME SUBTROPICAL RIDGING REMAINS THE MAIN THEME OF OUR
FORECAST THIS WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN EARLY TO MID WEEK... THEN CONTRACT LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER... THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEK.
MOISTURE... DAILY INSTABILITY... AND A LEE TROUGH/WEAKENING SURFACE
COLD FRONTS (WED-THU)... THEN AGAIN TOWARD THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE
SPARK FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WED-SAT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL INCLUDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT/HUMID
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. DAILY LOWS 70-75. HIGHS 90-95. THESE
READINGS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 20 POP TUE... WILL
INCREASE TO 30-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS
WED-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...

STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES TODAY...LIMITING COVERAGE TO ISOLATED THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S TO SW 10KT OR LESS. OVERNIGHT...
WILL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WHICH FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
MIXTURE OF FOG AND STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS(KRDU/KFAY/KRWI)...WHERE BROKEN MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE LESS PROMINENT.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...FEATURING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN
MORING HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 311325
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
925 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY... BEFORE RETREATING THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM SUNDAY...

STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SE
US TODAY. CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY WILL
SKIRT ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH TONIGHT.

A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS REALLY HIT
THE SKIDS AS IT APPROACHED THE TRIAD OVER THE LAST
HOUR...ENCOUNTERING THE DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DOMINATE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT. THIS SHOULD PROVE THE CASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR
NW PIEDMONT IN PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK DPVA LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN/SANDHILL ZONES SEEING SIMILAR CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES FROM
THE INLAND PUSH OF THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY.

MORNING BURN-OFF OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD NOT TEMPER DAYTIME HEATING.
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE ~15M FROM
YESTERDAY.... SUGGESTS HIGHS 90 TO 95F WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING
100F ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SANDHILLS.

MILD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT UNDER PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS 69 TO 74.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER ALONG THE SE COAST TODAY...WILL DRIFT WWD ON
MONDAY AND ALLOW A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
THE SHORT WAVE THAT`S MOVING NE ACROSS THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...TO DRIFT EWD ON MONDAY AND SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. DESPITE THIS UPPER SUPPORT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...THUS ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS
WITH THIS FEATURE LATE IN THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED IN NATURE. IN FACT...MOST CAMS KEEP CENTRAL NC DRY DURING
THE DAYTIME. INSTEAD...THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE HEAT...AS
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB...REACHING
1435M...AND 850MB TEMP REACHING 21C...ALL SUGGESTING HIGHS RANGING
FROM 91-95 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TRIANGLE...AND MID 90S ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS CROSSES
THE AREA. LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM SUNDAY...

SUMMERTIME SUBTROPICAL RIDGING REMAINS THE MAIN THEME OF OUR
FORECAST THIS WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN EARLY TO MID WEEK... THEN CONTRACT LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER... THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEK.
MOISTURE... DAILY INSTABILITY... AND A LEE TROUGH/WEAKENING SURFACE
COLD FRONTS (WED-THU)... THEN AGAIN TOWARD THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE
SPARK FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WED-SAT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL INCLUDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT/HUMID
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. DAILY LOWS 70-75. HIGHS 90-95. THESE
READINGS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 20 POP TUE... WILL
INCREASE TO 30-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS
WED-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM SUNDAY...

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ATTM ARE MOSTLY VFR ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WHILE LOCALIZED IFR AND LOW-MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW
STRATUS AND SOME FOG ARE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL PLAIN REGIONS. THIS APPEARS TO BE TIED TO THE MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER...THICKER WEST AND THINNER EAST. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD LIFT ACROSS THE EAST
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RESUMING. ALSO WATCHING THE SHOWERS ON RADAR
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST...BUT MOST
CAMS...INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR...SHOW THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY
THE TIME IT REACHES THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
LOCATIONS AS FAR EAST AS KGSO SOUTH TO KAFP SEEING A FEW SPRINKLES.
THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND GRADUALLY MOVE ESE TOWARD
AND ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN A
BRIEF PERIOD MVFR CONDITIONS INVOF KGSO/KINT. OTHERWISE..OUTSIDE OF
THIS WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VFR. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S TO SW 10KT OR LESS.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...THE MAIN CONCERN EACH DAY WILL BE
THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LOCALIZED FOG/STRATUS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...NP





000
FXUS62 KRAH 311325
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
925 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY... BEFORE RETREATING THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM SUNDAY...

STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SE
US TODAY. CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY WILL
SKIRT ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH TONIGHT.

A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS REALLY HIT
THE SKIDS AS IT APPROACHED THE TRIAD OVER THE LAST
HOUR...ENCOUNTERING THE DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DOMINATE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT. THIS SHOULD PROVE THE CASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR
NW PIEDMONT IN PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK DPVA LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN/SANDHILL ZONES SEEING SIMILAR CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES FROM
THE INLAND PUSH OF THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY.

MORNING BURN-OFF OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD NOT TEMPER DAYTIME HEATING.
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE ~15M FROM
YESTERDAY.... SUGGESTS HIGHS 90 TO 95F WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING
100F ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SANDHILLS.

MILD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT UNDER PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS 69 TO 74.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER ALONG THE SE COAST TODAY...WILL DRIFT WWD ON
MONDAY AND ALLOW A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
THE SHORT WAVE THAT`S MOVING NE ACROSS THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...TO DRIFT EWD ON MONDAY AND SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. DESPITE THIS UPPER SUPPORT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...THUS ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS
WITH THIS FEATURE LATE IN THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED IN NATURE. IN FACT...MOST CAMS KEEP CENTRAL NC DRY DURING
THE DAYTIME. INSTEAD...THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE HEAT...AS
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB...REACHING
1435M...AND 850MB TEMP REACHING 21C...ALL SUGGESTING HIGHS RANGING
FROM 91-95 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TRIANGLE...AND MID 90S ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS CROSSES
THE AREA. LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM SUNDAY...

SUMMERTIME SUBTROPICAL RIDGING REMAINS THE MAIN THEME OF OUR
FORECAST THIS WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN EARLY TO MID WEEK... THEN CONTRACT LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER... THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEK.
MOISTURE... DAILY INSTABILITY... AND A LEE TROUGH/WEAKENING SURFACE
COLD FRONTS (WED-THU)... THEN AGAIN TOWARD THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE
SPARK FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WED-SAT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL INCLUDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT/HUMID
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. DAILY LOWS 70-75. HIGHS 90-95. THESE
READINGS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 20 POP TUE... WILL
INCREASE TO 30-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS
WED-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM SUNDAY...

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ATTM ARE MOSTLY VFR ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WHILE LOCALIZED IFR AND LOW-MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW
STRATUS AND SOME FOG ARE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL PLAIN REGIONS. THIS APPEARS TO BE TIED TO THE MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER...THICKER WEST AND THINNER EAST. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD LIFT ACROSS THE EAST
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RESUMING. ALSO WATCHING THE SHOWERS ON RADAR
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST...BUT MOST
CAMS...INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR...SHOW THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY
THE TIME IT REACHES THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
LOCATIONS AS FAR EAST AS KGSO SOUTH TO KAFP SEEING A FEW SPRINKLES.
THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND GRADUALLY MOVE ESE TOWARD
AND ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN A
BRIEF PERIOD MVFR CONDITIONS INVOF KGSO/KINT. OTHERWISE..OUTSIDE OF
THIS WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VFR. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S TO SW 10KT OR LESS.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...THE MAIN CONCERN EACH DAY WILL BE
THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LOCALIZED FOG/STRATUS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...NP




000
FXUS62 KRAH 311050
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
650 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY... BEFORE RETREATING THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS...CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM ERN KY/TN SOUTH TO ERN GA ARE STEADILY MOVING EAST
AND BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS. THESE SHOWERS...
OCCURRING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY...ARE PROGGED BY MOST OF THE CAMS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE BY THE TIME THEY REACH OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING.
WHILE THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE DRY AIR ABOVE H8 OVER OUR AREA
RIGHT NOW (PER THE 00Z GSO SOUNDING)...RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE YET
TO SHOW ANY SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE OF THIS PRECIP AREA. THIS WILL BE
CLOSELY WATCHED.

THEN LATER TODAY...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND GRADUALLY MOVE ESE TOWARD AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING...MOSTLY DISSIPATING OVER OUR
TRIAD ZONES...AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT (THE
SHORT WAVE LIFTING NE ACROSS WVA) AND MOVE INTO THE DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR OVER OUR REGION. WHILE THE CAMS SOMETIMES HAVE TROUBLE
HANDLING THIS TYPE OF ACTIVITY...AND THESE SHOWERS OFTEN LINGER
LONGER THAN WHAT THE CAMS FORECAST...WILL FOLLOW THEIR TREND AND
KEEP HIGHEST POPS (30%) OVER OUR TRIAD ZONES AND ELSEWHERE LIMITED
TO 15%. THE MAIN TAKE-AWAY IS THAT MOST OF OUR CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
TODAY...AND WHERE IT DOES RAIN...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
BRIEF. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DECENT AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING
EWD ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY. DESPITE THESE CLOUDS...THE CURRENT
AIRMASS...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES 10-15M ABOVE NORMAL...SUGGESTS
HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S AND CLOSE TO 90 IN SPOTS.

OVERNIGHT...SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR FOG...SLOW COOLING...AND KEEP LOW TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER ALONG THE SE COAST TODAY...WILL DRIFT WWD ON
MONDAY AND ALLOW A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
THE SHORT WAVE THAT`S MOVING NE ACROSS THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...TO DRIFT EWD ON MONDAY AND SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. DESPITE THIS UPPER SUPPORT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...THUS ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS
WITH THIS FEATURE LATE IN THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED IN NATURE. IN FACT...MOST CAMS KEEP CENTRAL NC DRY DURING
THE DAYTIME. INSTEAD...THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE HEAT...AS
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB...REACHING
1435M...AND 850MB TEMP REACHING 21C...ALL SUGGESTING HIGHS RANGING
FROM 91-95 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TRIANGLE...AND MID 90S ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS CROSSES
THE AREA. LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM SUNDAY...

SUMMERTIME SUBTROPICAL RIDGING REMAINS THE MAIN THEME OF OUR
FORECAST THIS WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN EARLY TO MID WEEK... THEN CONTRACT LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER... THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEK.
MOISTURE... DAILY INSTABILITY... AND A LEE TROUGH/WEAKENING SURFACE
COLD FRONTS (WED-THU)... THEN AGAIN TOWARD THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE
SPARK FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WED-SAT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL INCLUDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT/HUMID
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. DAILY LOWS 70-75. HIGHS 90-95. THESE
READINGS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 20 POP TUE... WILL
INCREASE TO 30-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS
WED-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM SUNDAY...

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ATTM ARE MOSTLY VFR ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WHILE LOCALIZED IFR AND LOW-MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW
STRATUS AND SOME FOG ARE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL PLAIN REGIONS. THIS APPEARS TO BE TIED TO THE MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER...THICKER WEST AND THINNER EAST. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD LIFT ACROSS THE EAST
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RESUMING. ALSO WATCHING THE SHOWERS ON RADAR
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST...BUT MOST
CAMS...INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR...SHOW THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY
THE TIME IT REACHES THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
LOCATIONS AS FAR EAST AS KGSO SOUTH TO KAFP SEEING A FEW SPRINKLES.
THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND GRADUALLY MOVE ESE TOWARD
AND ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN A
BRIEF PERIOD MVFR CONDITIONS INVOF KGSO/KINT. OTHERWISE..OUTSIDE OF
THIS WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VFR. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S TO SW 10KT OR LESS.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...THE MAIN CONCERN EACH DAY WILL BE
THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LOCALIZED FOG/STRATUS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...NP
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...NP





000
FXUS62 KRAH 311050
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
650 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY... BEFORE RETREATING THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS...CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM ERN KY/TN SOUTH TO ERN GA ARE STEADILY MOVING EAST
AND BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS. THESE SHOWERS...
OCCURRING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY...ARE PROGGED BY MOST OF THE CAMS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE BY THE TIME THEY REACH OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING.
WHILE THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE DRY AIR ABOVE H8 OVER OUR AREA
RIGHT NOW (PER THE 00Z GSO SOUNDING)...RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE YET
TO SHOW ANY SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE OF THIS PRECIP AREA. THIS WILL BE
CLOSELY WATCHED.

THEN LATER TODAY...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND GRADUALLY MOVE ESE TOWARD AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING...MOSTLY DISSIPATING OVER OUR
TRIAD ZONES...AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT (THE
SHORT WAVE LIFTING NE ACROSS WVA) AND MOVE INTO THE DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR OVER OUR REGION. WHILE THE CAMS SOMETIMES HAVE TROUBLE
HANDLING THIS TYPE OF ACTIVITY...AND THESE SHOWERS OFTEN LINGER
LONGER THAN WHAT THE CAMS FORECAST...WILL FOLLOW THEIR TREND AND
KEEP HIGHEST POPS (30%) OVER OUR TRIAD ZONES AND ELSEWHERE LIMITED
TO 15%. THE MAIN TAKE-AWAY IS THAT MOST OF OUR CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
TODAY...AND WHERE IT DOES RAIN...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
BRIEF. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DECENT AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING
EWD ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY. DESPITE THESE CLOUDS...THE CURRENT
AIRMASS...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES 10-15M ABOVE NORMAL...SUGGESTS
HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S AND CLOSE TO 90 IN SPOTS.

OVERNIGHT...SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR FOG...SLOW COOLING...AND KEEP LOW TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER ALONG THE SE COAST TODAY...WILL DRIFT WWD ON
MONDAY AND ALLOW A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
THE SHORT WAVE THAT`S MOVING NE ACROSS THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...TO DRIFT EWD ON MONDAY AND SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. DESPITE THIS UPPER SUPPORT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...THUS ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS
WITH THIS FEATURE LATE IN THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED IN NATURE. IN FACT...MOST CAMS KEEP CENTRAL NC DRY DURING
THE DAYTIME. INSTEAD...THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE HEAT...AS
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB...REACHING
1435M...AND 850MB TEMP REACHING 21C...ALL SUGGESTING HIGHS RANGING
FROM 91-95 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TRIANGLE...AND MID 90S ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS CROSSES
THE AREA. LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM SUNDAY...

SUMMERTIME SUBTROPICAL RIDGING REMAINS THE MAIN THEME OF OUR
FORECAST THIS WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN EARLY TO MID WEEK... THEN CONTRACT LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER... THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEK.
MOISTURE... DAILY INSTABILITY... AND A LEE TROUGH/WEAKENING SURFACE
COLD FRONTS (WED-THU)... THEN AGAIN TOWARD THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE
SPARK FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WED-SAT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL INCLUDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT/HUMID
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. DAILY LOWS 70-75. HIGHS 90-95. THESE
READINGS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 20 POP TUE... WILL
INCREASE TO 30-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS
WED-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM SUNDAY...

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ATTM ARE MOSTLY VFR ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WHILE LOCALIZED IFR AND LOW-MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW
STRATUS AND SOME FOG ARE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL PLAIN REGIONS. THIS APPEARS TO BE TIED TO THE MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER...THICKER WEST AND THINNER EAST. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD LIFT ACROSS THE EAST
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RESUMING. ALSO WATCHING THE SHOWERS ON RADAR
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST...BUT MOST
CAMS...INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR...SHOW THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY
THE TIME IT REACHES THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
LOCATIONS AS FAR EAST AS KGSO SOUTH TO KAFP SEEING A FEW SPRINKLES.
THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND GRADUALLY MOVE ESE TOWARD
AND ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN A
BRIEF PERIOD MVFR CONDITIONS INVOF KGSO/KINT. OTHERWISE..OUTSIDE OF
THIS WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VFR. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S TO SW 10KT OR LESS.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...THE MAIN CONCERN EACH DAY WILL BE
THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LOCALIZED FOG/STRATUS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...NP
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...NP




000
FXUS62 KRAH 310732
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY... BEFORE RETREATING THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS...CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM ERN KY/TN SOUTH TO ERN GA ARE STEADILY MOVING EAST
AND BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS. THESE SHOWERS...
OCCURRING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY...ARE PROGGED BY MOST OF THE CAMS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE BY THE TIME THEY REACH OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING.
WHILE THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE DRY AIR ABOVE H8 OVER OUR AREA
RIGHT NOW (PER THE 00Z GSO SOUNDING)...RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE YET
TO SHOW ANY SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE OF THIS PRECIP AREA. THIS WILL BE
CLOSELY WATCHED.

THEN LATER TODAY...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND GRADUALLY MOVE ESE TOWARD AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING...MOSTLY DISSIPATING OVER OUR
TRIAD ZONES...AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT (THE
SHORT WAVE LIFTING NE ACROSS WVA) AND MOVE INTO THE DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR OVER OUR REGION. WHILE THE CAMS SOMETIMES HAVE TROUBLE
HANDLING THIS TYPE OF ACTIVITY...AND THESE SHOWERS OFTEN LINGER
LONGER THAN WHAT THE CAMS FORECAST...WILL FOLLOW THEIR TREND AND
KEEP HIGHEST POPS (30%) OVER OUR TRIAD ZONES AND ELSEWHERE LIMITED
TO 15%. THE MAIN TAKE-AWAY IS THAT MOST OF OUR CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
TODAY...AND WHERE IT DOES RAIN...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
BRIEF. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DECENT AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING
EWD ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY. DESPITE THESE CLOUDS...THE CURRENT
AIRMASS...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES 10-15M ABOVE NORMAL...SUGGESTS
HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S AND CLOSE TO 90 IN SPOTS.

OVERNIGHT...SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR FOG...SLOW COOLING...AND KEEP LOW TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER ALONG THE SE COAST TODAY...WILL DRIFT WWD ON
MONDAY AND ALLOW A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
THE SHORT WAVE THAT`S MOVING NE ACROSS THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...TO DRIFT EWD ON MONDAY AND SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. DESPITE THIS UPPER SUPPORT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...THUS ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS
WITH THIS FEATURE LATE IN THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED IN NATURE. IN FACT...MOST CAMS KEEP CENTRAL NC DRY DURING
THE DAYTIME. INSTEAD...THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE HEAT...AS
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB...REACHING
1435M...AND 850MB TEMP REACHING 21C...ALL SUGGESTING HIGHS RANGING
FROM 91-95 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TRIANGLE...AND MID 90S ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS CROSSES
THE AREA. LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM SUNDAY...

SUMMERTIME SUBTROPICAL RIDGING REMAINS THE MAIN THEME OF OUR
FORECAST THIS WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN EARLY TO MID WEEK... THEN CONTRACT LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER... THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEK.
MOISTURE... DAILY INSTABILITY... AND A LEE TROUGH/WEAKENING SURFACE
COLD FRONTS (WED-THU)... THEN AGAIN TOWARD THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE
SPARK FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WED-SAT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL INCLUDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT/HUMID
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. DAILY LOWS 70-75. HIGHS 90-95. THESE
READINGS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 20 POP TUE... WILL
INCREASE TO 30-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS
WED-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ATTM...WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS HELPING TO
LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS MORNING. STILL...CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY MVFR OR IFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE
THINNEST. AFTER ANY PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES LATER THIS MORNING...LOOK
FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...
MAINLY IN THE TRIAD AREA (KGSO AND KINT)...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A
BRIEF PERIOD MVFR CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF THIS WIDELY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR FOR THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S TO SW 10KT OR LESS.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...THE MAIN CONCERN EACH DAY WILL BE
THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LOCALIZED FOG/STRATUS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...NP
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...NP





000
FXUS62 KRAH 310732
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY... BEFORE RETREATING THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS...CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM ERN KY/TN SOUTH TO ERN GA ARE STEADILY MOVING EAST
AND BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS. THESE SHOWERS...
OCCURRING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY...ARE PROGGED BY MOST OF THE CAMS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE BY THE TIME THEY REACH OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING.
WHILE THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE DRY AIR ABOVE H8 OVER OUR AREA
RIGHT NOW (PER THE 00Z GSO SOUNDING)...RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE YET
TO SHOW ANY SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE OF THIS PRECIP AREA. THIS WILL BE
CLOSELY WATCHED.

THEN LATER TODAY...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND GRADUALLY MOVE ESE TOWARD AND ACROSS
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING...MOSTLY DISSIPATING OVER OUR
TRIAD ZONES...AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT (THE
SHORT WAVE LIFTING NE ACROSS WVA) AND MOVE INTO THE DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR OVER OUR REGION. WHILE THE CAMS SOMETIMES HAVE TROUBLE
HANDLING THIS TYPE OF ACTIVITY...AND THESE SHOWERS OFTEN LINGER
LONGER THAN WHAT THE CAMS FORECAST...WILL FOLLOW THEIR TREND AND
KEEP HIGHEST POPS (30%) OVER OUR TRIAD ZONES AND ELSEWHERE LIMITED
TO 15%. THE MAIN TAKE-AWAY IS THAT MOST OF OUR CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
TODAY...AND WHERE IT DOES RAIN...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
BRIEF. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DECENT AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING
EWD ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY. DESPITE THESE CLOUDS...THE CURRENT
AIRMASS...WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES 10-15M ABOVE NORMAL...SUGGESTS
HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S AND CLOSE TO 90 IN SPOTS.

OVERNIGHT...SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR FOG...SLOW COOLING...AND KEEP LOW TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER ALONG THE SE COAST TODAY...WILL DRIFT WWD ON
MONDAY AND ALLOW A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
THE SHORT WAVE THAT`S MOVING NE ACROSS THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...TO DRIFT EWD ON MONDAY AND SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT. DESPITE THIS UPPER SUPPORT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...THUS ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS
WITH THIS FEATURE LATE IN THE DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND WIDELY
SCATTERED IN NATURE. IN FACT...MOST CAMS KEEP CENTRAL NC DRY DURING
THE DAYTIME. INSTEAD...THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE HEAT...AS
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB...REACHING
1435M...AND 850MB TEMP REACHING 21C...ALL SUGGESTING HIGHS RANGING
FROM 91-95 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE TRIANGLE...AND MID 90S ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AXIS CROSSES
THE AREA. LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM SUNDAY...

SUMMERTIME SUBTROPICAL RIDGING REMAINS THE MAIN THEME OF OUR
FORECAST THIS WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN EARLY TO MID WEEK... THEN CONTRACT LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER... THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEK.
MOISTURE... DAILY INSTABILITY... AND A LEE TROUGH/WEAKENING SURFACE
COLD FRONTS (WED-THU)... THEN AGAIN TOWARD THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE
SPARK FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WED-SAT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL INCLUDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT/HUMID
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. DAILY LOWS 70-75. HIGHS 90-95. THESE
READINGS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 20 POP TUE... WILL
INCREASE TO 30-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS
WED-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ATTM...WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS HELPING TO
LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS MORNING. STILL...CAN`T RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY MVFR OR IFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE
THINNEST. AFTER ANY PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES LATER THIS MORNING...LOOK
FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...
MAINLY IN THE TRIAD AREA (KGSO AND KINT)...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A
BRIEF PERIOD MVFR CONDITIONS. OUTSIDE OF THIS WIDELY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY...FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR FOR THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S TO SW 10KT OR LESS.

BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...THE MAIN CONCERN EACH DAY WILL BE
THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND LOCALIZED FOG/STRATUS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...NP
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...NP




000
FXUS62 KRAH 310623
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
220 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY... BEFORE RETREATING THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM SATURDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOW A SLACK GRADIENT OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. RADAR SHOWED EARLIER SHOWERS HAD
DIMINISHED...AS THE SEA BREEZE HAD MOVED NORTH AND WEAKENED WHILE
VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR MOVED EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. K INDICES SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND NAM ALONG WITH RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN OVERALL STABLE AIR MASS THEN.

SOME OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FELL QUICKLY
DURING MID-EVENING...BUT WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS MOVING EAST FROM DEEP
CONVECTION WELL UPSTREAM...ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70
TO THE LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THAT RAPID FALL. LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO OF 70. SOME LOW CLOUDS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
PARTICULARLY AS NOTED ON NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE...AND ALLUDED TO MORE ON THE GFS 18Z MOS
GUIDANCE OUTPUT FROM ITS EARLIER...MORE OPTIMISTIC 12Z GUIDANCE. THE
LATEST HRRR WRF WOULD SUGGEST A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT IN A NARROW AXIS ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 1...WHERE SREF
PROBABILITIES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE AREA
AND CLOSER TO THE HIGHER 925MB WINDS. THOSE 925MB WINDS SEEM A
LITTLE HIGH FOR FOG IN MOST PLACES...TO 20KT TOWARD THE TRIAD LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 15KT TOWARD INTERSTATE 95
ALONG WITH EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S COULD ALLOW A LITTLE
MORE NOTICEABLE FOG IN PATCHES TOWARD THERE LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO START THE DAY WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ITS ASSOCIATED ENERGY AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME (EMANATING
FROM THE GULF) WILL LARGELY REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF CENTRAL NC. IN
ADDITION...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST THINKING OF ONLY ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
WEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ABOVE FEATURES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM SUNDAY...

SUMMERTIME SUBTROPICAL RIDGING REMAINS THE MAIN THEME OF OUR
FORECAST THIS WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN EARLY TO MID WEEK... THEN CONTRACT LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER... THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEK.
MOISTURE... DAILY INSTABILITY... AND A LEE TROUGH/WEAKENING SURFACE
COLD FRONTS (WED-THU)... THEN AGAIN TOWARD THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE
SPARK FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WED-SAT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL INCLUDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT/HUMID
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. DAILY LOWS 70-75. HIGHS 90-95. THESE
READINGS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 20 POP TUE... WILL
INCREASE TO 30-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS
WED-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 751 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS... AND IFR
CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS... AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG.... ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY AT
KRDU...KRWI...AND KFAY... WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHEST. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KGSO AND KINT. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... WITH A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY/MID NEXT
WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND A
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...SEC/KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 310623
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
220 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY... BEFORE RETREATING THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM SATURDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOW A SLACK GRADIENT OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. RADAR SHOWED EARLIER SHOWERS HAD
DIMINISHED...AS THE SEA BREEZE HAD MOVED NORTH AND WEAKENED WHILE
VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR MOVED EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. K INDICES SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND NAM ALONG WITH RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN OVERALL STABLE AIR MASS THEN.

SOME OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FELL QUICKLY
DURING MID-EVENING...BUT WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS MOVING EAST FROM DEEP
CONVECTION WELL UPSTREAM...ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70
TO THE LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THAT RAPID FALL. LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO OF 70. SOME LOW CLOUDS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
PARTICULARLY AS NOTED ON NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE...AND ALLUDED TO MORE ON THE GFS 18Z MOS
GUIDANCE OUTPUT FROM ITS EARLIER...MORE OPTIMISTIC 12Z GUIDANCE. THE
LATEST HRRR WRF WOULD SUGGEST A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT IN A NARROW AXIS ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 1...WHERE SREF
PROBABILITIES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE AREA
AND CLOSER TO THE HIGHER 925MB WINDS. THOSE 925MB WINDS SEEM A
LITTLE HIGH FOR FOG IN MOST PLACES...TO 20KT TOWARD THE TRIAD LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 15KT TOWARD INTERSTATE 95
ALONG WITH EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S COULD ALLOW A LITTLE
MORE NOTICEABLE FOG IN PATCHES TOWARD THERE LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO START THE DAY WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ITS ASSOCIATED ENERGY AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME (EMANATING
FROM THE GULF) WILL LARGELY REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF CENTRAL NC. IN
ADDITION...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST THINKING OF ONLY ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
WEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ABOVE FEATURES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM SUNDAY...

SUMMERTIME SUBTROPICAL RIDGING REMAINS THE MAIN THEME OF OUR
FORECAST THIS WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN EARLY TO MID WEEK... THEN CONTRACT LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER... THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEK.
MOISTURE... DAILY INSTABILITY... AND A LEE TROUGH/WEAKENING SURFACE
COLD FRONTS (WED-THU)... THEN AGAIN TOWARD THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE
SPARK FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WED-SAT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL INCLUDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT/HUMID
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. DAILY LOWS 70-75. HIGHS 90-95. THESE
READINGS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. 20 POP TUE... WILL
INCREASE TO 30-50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS
WED-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 751 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS... AND IFR
CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS... AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG.... ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY AT
KRDU...KRWI...AND KFAY... WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHEST. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KGSO AND KINT. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... WITH A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY/MID NEXT
WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND A
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...SEC/KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 310248 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1047 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM SATURDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOW A SLACK GRADIENT OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. RADAR SHOWED EARLIER SHOWERS HAD
DIMINISHED...AS THE SEA BREEZE HAD MOVED NORTH AND WEAKENED WHILE
VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR MOVED EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. K INDICES SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND NAM ALONG WITH RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN OVERALL STABLE AIR MASS THEN.

SOME OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FELL QUICKLY
DURING MID-EVENING...BUT WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS MOVING EAST FROM DEEP
CONVECTION WELL UPSTREAM...ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70
TO THE LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THAT RAPID FALL. LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO OF 70. SOME LOW CLOUDS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
PARTICULARLY AS NOTED ON NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE...AND ALLUDED TO MORE ON THE GFS 18Z MOS
GUIDANCE OUTPUT FROM ITS EARLIER...MORE OPTIMISTIC 12Z GUIDANCE. THE
LATEST HRRR WRF WOULD SUGGEST A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT IN A NARROW AXIS ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 1...WHERE SREF
PROBABILITIES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE AREA
AND CLOSER TO THE HIGHER 925MB WINDS. THOSE 925MB WINDS SEEM A
LITTLE HIGH FOR FOG IN MOST PLACES...TO 20KT TOWARD THE TRIAD LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 15KT TOWARD INTERSTATE 95
ALONG WITH EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S COULD ALLOW A LITTLE
MORE NOTICEABLE FOG IN PATCHES TOWARD THERE LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO START THE DAY WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ITS ASSOCIATED ENERGY AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME (EMANATING
FROM THE GULF) WILL LARGELY REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF CENTRAL NC. IN
ADDITION...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST THINKING OF ONLY ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
WEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ABOVE FEATURES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...

WITH ROUGHLY 3 WEEKS OF SUMMER REMAINING (AUTUMN EQUINOX IS SEPT
23)...THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES RETREATING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER WILL RESULT IN THE FIRST
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUMMERTIME HEAT AND CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES THAT
CENTRAL NC HAS SEEN THIS SEASON. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED
TO RUN 25 TO 30 METERS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM 90 TO 95F WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 68 TO
74F.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-
ATLANTIC STATES WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE LONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO APPROACH NC FROM THE
NORTH...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS REALLY
WASHES OUT THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
PERIOD. AS SUCH...GRIDDED DATABASE WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON...FIRING WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG A LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 751 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS... AND IFR
CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS... AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG.... ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY AT
KRDU...KRWI...AND KFAY... WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHEST. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KGSO AND KINT. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... WITH A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY/MID NEXT
WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND A
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIH
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...SEC/KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 310248 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1047 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM SATURDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOW A SLACK GRADIENT OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. RADAR SHOWED EARLIER SHOWERS HAD
DIMINISHED...AS THE SEA BREEZE HAD MOVED NORTH AND WEAKENED WHILE
VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR MOVED EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. K INDICES SHOULD FALL INTO THE
TEENS AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND NAM ALONG WITH RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN OVERALL STABLE AIR MASS THEN.

SOME OF THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FELL QUICKLY
DURING MID-EVENING...BUT WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS MOVING EAST FROM DEEP
CONVECTION WELL UPSTREAM...ALONG WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70
TO THE LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THAT RAPID FALL. LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO OF 70. SOME LOW CLOUDS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
PARTICULARLY AS NOTED ON NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE...AND ALLUDED TO MORE ON THE GFS 18Z MOS
GUIDANCE OUTPUT FROM ITS EARLIER...MORE OPTIMISTIC 12Z GUIDANCE. THE
LATEST HRRR WRF WOULD SUGGEST A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT IN A NARROW AXIS ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. 1...WHERE SREF
PROBABILITIES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE AREA
AND CLOSER TO THE HIGHER 925MB WINDS. THOSE 925MB WINDS SEEM A
LITTLE HIGH FOR FOG IN MOST PLACES...TO 20KT TOWARD THE TRIAD LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 15KT TOWARD INTERSTATE 95
ALONG WITH EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S COULD ALLOW A LITTLE
MORE NOTICEABLE FOG IN PATCHES TOWARD THERE LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO START THE DAY WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ITS ASSOCIATED ENERGY AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME (EMANATING
FROM THE GULF) WILL LARGELY REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF CENTRAL NC. IN
ADDITION...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST THINKING OF ONLY ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
WEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ABOVE FEATURES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...

WITH ROUGHLY 3 WEEKS OF SUMMER REMAINING (AUTUMN EQUINOX IS SEPT
23)...THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES RETREATING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER WILL RESULT IN THE FIRST
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUMMERTIME HEAT AND CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES THAT
CENTRAL NC HAS SEEN THIS SEASON. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED
TO RUN 25 TO 30 METERS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM 90 TO 95F WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 68 TO
74F.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-
ATLANTIC STATES WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE LONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO APPROACH NC FROM THE
NORTH...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS REALLY
WASHES OUT THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
PERIOD. AS SUCH...GRIDDED DATABASE WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON...FIRING WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG A LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 751 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS... AND IFR
CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS... AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG.... ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY AT
KRDU...KRWI...AND KFAY... WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHEST. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KGSO AND KINT. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... WITH A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY/MID NEXT
WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND A
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIH
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...SEC/KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 302352 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
752 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 740 PM SATURDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SLACK GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE SEA BREEZE HAD MOVED WELL
INLAND...MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE TRIANGLE AND HEADED TOWARD
INTERSTATE 40/85. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED MLCAPE AROUND
1500J/KG...THOUGH DESPITE THE INSTABILITY SHEAR WAS VERY WEAK AND
THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS. TOTAL LIFT
AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD ALSO BE FURTHER INHIBITED BY AN
AXIS OF VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. DIURNALLY...THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY AS AN AXIS OF LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...NEAR
NORMAL AT ABOUT 1.3 INCHES...IS FORECAST BY THE RAP TO MOVE EAST
FROM THE FOOTHILLS AND FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT...WITH K
INDICES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND
NAM ALONG WITH RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW AN OVERALL STABLE AIR MASS THEN.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ON THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE FROM
12Z TO 18Z...CLOSER TO THE MET MOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS APPARENTLY
PERFORMED A LITTLE BETTER OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO. STILL...THE
BASIC FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES REMAINS THE SAME...MOSTLY
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 70. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT PARTICULARLY AS NOTED ON NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE...AND ALLUDED TO MORE ON THE GFS 18Z MOS
GUIDANCE OUTPUT FROM ITS EARLIER...MORE OPTIMISTIC 12Z GUIDANCE.
925MB WINDS SEEM A LITTLE HIGH FOR FOG IN MOST PLACES...TO 20KT
TOWARD THE TRIAD LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 15KT
TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 ALONG WITH EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S
COULD ALLOW A LITTLE MORE NOTICEABLE FOG IN PATCHES TOWARD THERE
LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO START THE DAY WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ITS ASSOCIATED ENERGY AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME (EMANATING
FROM THE GULF) WILL LARGELY REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF CENTRAL NC. IN
ADDITION...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST THINKING OF ONLY ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
WEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ABOVE FEATURES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...

WITH ROUGHLY 3 WEEKS OF SUMMER REMAINING (AUTUMN EQUINOX IS SEPT
23)...THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES RETREATING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER WILL RESULT IN THE FIRST
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUMMERTIME HEAT AND CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES THAT
CENTRAL NC HAS SEEN THIS SEASON. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED
TO RUN 25 TO 30 METERS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM 90 TO 95F WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 68 TO
74F.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-
ATLANTIC STATES WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE LONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO APPROACH NC FROM THE
NORTH...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS REALLY
WASHES OUT THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
PERIOD. AS SUCH...GRIDDED DATABASE WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON...FIRING WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG A LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 751 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS... AND IFR
CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS... AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG.... ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY AT
KRDU...KRWI...AND KFAY... WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHEST. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KGSO AND KINT. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... WITH A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY/MID NEXT
WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND A
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIH
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...SEC/KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 302352 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
752 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 740 PM SATURDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SLACK GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE SEA BREEZE HAD MOVED WELL
INLAND...MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE TRIANGLE AND HEADED TOWARD
INTERSTATE 40/85. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED MLCAPE AROUND
1500J/KG...THOUGH DESPITE THE INSTABILITY SHEAR WAS VERY WEAK AND
THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS. TOTAL LIFT
AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD ALSO BE FURTHER INHIBITED BY AN
AXIS OF VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. DIURNALLY...THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY AS AN AXIS OF LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...NEAR
NORMAL AT ABOUT 1.3 INCHES...IS FORECAST BY THE RAP TO MOVE EAST
FROM THE FOOTHILLS AND FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT...WITH K
INDICES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND
NAM ALONG WITH RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW AN OVERALL STABLE AIR MASS THEN.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ON THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE FROM
12Z TO 18Z...CLOSER TO THE MET MOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS APPARENTLY
PERFORMED A LITTLE BETTER OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO. STILL...THE
BASIC FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES REMAINS THE SAME...MOSTLY
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 70. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT PARTICULARLY AS NOTED ON NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE...AND ALLUDED TO MORE ON THE GFS 18Z MOS
GUIDANCE OUTPUT FROM ITS EARLIER...MORE OPTIMISTIC 12Z GUIDANCE.
925MB WINDS SEEM A LITTLE HIGH FOR FOG IN MOST PLACES...TO 20KT
TOWARD THE TRIAD LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 15KT
TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 ALONG WITH EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S
COULD ALLOW A LITTLE MORE NOTICEABLE FOG IN PATCHES TOWARD THERE
LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO START THE DAY WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ITS ASSOCIATED ENERGY AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME (EMANATING
FROM THE GULF) WILL LARGELY REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF CENTRAL NC. IN
ADDITION...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST THINKING OF ONLY ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
WEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ABOVE FEATURES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...

WITH ROUGHLY 3 WEEKS OF SUMMER REMAINING (AUTUMN EQUINOX IS SEPT
23)...THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES RETREATING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER WILL RESULT IN THE FIRST
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUMMERTIME HEAT AND CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES THAT
CENTRAL NC HAS SEEN THIS SEASON. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED
TO RUN 25 TO 30 METERS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM 90 TO 95F WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 68 TO
74F.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-
ATLANTIC STATES WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE LONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO APPROACH NC FROM THE
NORTH...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS REALLY
WASHES OUT THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
PERIOD. AS SUCH...GRIDDED DATABASE WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON...FIRING WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG A LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 751 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS... AND IFR
CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS... AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG.... ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY AT
KRDU...KRWI...AND KFAY... WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHEST. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KGSO AND KINT. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... WITH A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY/MID NEXT
WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND A
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIH
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...SEC/KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 302341 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
741 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 740 PM SATURDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SLACK GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE SEA BREEZE HAD MOVED WELL
INLAND...MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE TRIANGLE AND HEADED TOWARD
INTERSTATE 40/85. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED MLCAPE AROUND
1500J/KG...THOUGH DESPITE THE INSTABILITY SHEAR WAS VERY WEAK AND
THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS. TOTAL LIFT
AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD ALSO BE FURTHER INHIBITED BY AN
AXIS OF VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. DIURNALLY...THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY AS AN AXIS OF LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...NEAR
NORMAL AT ABOUT 1.3 INCHES...IS FORECAST BY THE RAP TO MOVE EAST
FROM THE FOOTHILLS AND FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT...WITH K
INDICES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND
NAM ALONG WITH RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW AN OVERALL STABLE AIR MASS THEN.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ON THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE FROM
12Z TO 18Z...CLOSER TO THE MET MOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS APPARENTLY
PERFORMED A LITTLE BETTER OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO. STILL...THE
BASIC FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES REMAINS THE SAME...MOSTLY
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 70. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT PARTICULARLY AS NOTED ON NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE...AND ALLUDED TO MORE ON THE GFS 18Z MOS
GUIDANCE OUTPUT FROM ITS EARLIER...MORE OPTIMISTIC 12Z GUIDANCE.
925MB WINDS SEEM A LITTLE HIGH FOR FOG IN MOST PLACES...TO 20KT
TOWARD THE TRIAD LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 15KT
TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 ALONG WITH EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S
COULD ALLOW A LITTLE MORE NOTICEABLE FOG IN PATCHES TOWARD THERE
LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO START THE DAY WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ITS ASSOCIATED ENERGY AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME (EMANATING
FROM THE GULF) WILL LARGELY REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF CENTRAL NC. IN
ADDITION...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST THINKING OF ONLY ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
WEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ABOVE FEATURES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...

WITH ROUGHLY 3 WEEKS OF SUMMER REMAINING (AUTUMN EQUINOX IS SEPT
23)...THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES RETREATING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER WILL RESULT IN THE FIRST
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUMMERTIME HEAT AND CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES THAT
CENTRAL NC HAS SEEN THIS SEASON. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED
TO RUN 25 TO 30 METERS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM 90 TO 95F WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 68 TO
74F.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-
ATLANTIC STATES WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE LONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO APPROACH NC FROM THE
NORTH...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS REALLY
WASHES OUT THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
PERIOD. AS SUCH...GRIDDED DATABASE WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON...FIRING WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG A LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE AREA AS THE LOW CLOUDS LIFTED
INTO A 4-5 KFT CLOUD DECK. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND MOVING SEA-BREEZE.
THUS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST...BUT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW AS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH RESPECT TO EXACT TIMING/LOCATION (ALTHOUGH KFAY MAY HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE). THEN...ONCE AGAIN PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY/MID NEXT
WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND A
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIH
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 302341 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
741 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 740 PM SATURDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SLACK GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE SEA BREEZE HAD MOVED WELL
INLAND...MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE TRIANGLE AND HEADED TOWARD
INTERSTATE 40/85. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED MLCAPE AROUND
1500J/KG...THOUGH DESPITE THE INSTABILITY SHEAR WAS VERY WEAK AND
THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS. TOTAL LIFT
AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD ALSO BE FURTHER INHIBITED BY AN
AXIS OF VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. DIURNALLY...THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY AS AN AXIS OF LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...NEAR
NORMAL AT ABOUT 1.3 INCHES...IS FORECAST BY THE RAP TO MOVE EAST
FROM THE FOOTHILLS AND FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT...WITH K
INDICES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND
NAM ALONG WITH RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW AN OVERALL STABLE AIR MASS THEN.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ON THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE FROM
12Z TO 18Z...CLOSER TO THE MET MOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS APPARENTLY
PERFORMED A LITTLE BETTER OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO. STILL...THE
BASIC FORECAST FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES REMAINS THE SAME...MOSTLY
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 70. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT PARTICULARLY AS NOTED ON NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE SREF
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE...AND ALLUDED TO MORE ON THE GFS 18Z MOS
GUIDANCE OUTPUT FROM ITS EARLIER...MORE OPTIMISTIC 12Z GUIDANCE.
925MB WINDS SEEM A LITTLE HIGH FOR FOG IN MOST PLACES...TO 20KT
TOWARD THE TRIAD LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE LOWER VALUES OF 10 TO 15KT
TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 ALONG WITH EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S
COULD ALLOW A LITTLE MORE NOTICEABLE FOG IN PATCHES TOWARD THERE
LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO START THE DAY WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ITS ASSOCIATED ENERGY AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME (EMANATING
FROM THE GULF) WILL LARGELY REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF CENTRAL NC. IN
ADDITION...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST THINKING OF ONLY ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
WEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ABOVE FEATURES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...

WITH ROUGHLY 3 WEEKS OF SUMMER REMAINING (AUTUMN EQUINOX IS SEPT
23)...THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES RETREATING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER WILL RESULT IN THE FIRST
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUMMERTIME HEAT AND CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES THAT
CENTRAL NC HAS SEEN THIS SEASON. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED
TO RUN 25 TO 30 METERS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM 90 TO 95F WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 68 TO
74F.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-
ATLANTIC STATES WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE LONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO APPROACH NC FROM THE
NORTH...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS REALLY
WASHES OUT THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
PERIOD. AS SUCH...GRIDDED DATABASE WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON...FIRING WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG A LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE AREA AS THE LOW CLOUDS LIFTED
INTO A 4-5 KFT CLOUD DECK. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND MOVING SEA-BREEZE.
THUS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST...BUT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW AS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH RESPECT TO EXACT TIMING/LOCATION (ALTHOUGH KFAY MAY HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE). THEN...ONCE AGAIN PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY/MID NEXT
WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND A
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIH
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301830 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALOFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE REMAIN OVER THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...
ALLOWING A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE AREA. THE SEA
BREEZE HAS BECOME FAIRLY ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INLAND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH A ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM OR TWO WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE FURTHER TO THE WEST.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 70. PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT AS THE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO START THE DAY WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ITS ASSOCIATED ENERGY AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME (EMANATING
FROM THE GULF) WILL LARGELY REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF CENTRAL NC. IN
ADDITION...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST THINKING OF ONLY ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
WEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ABOVE FEATURES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...

WITH ROUGHLY 3 WEEKS OF SUMMER REMAINING (AUTUMN EQUINOX IS SEPT
23)...THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES RETREATING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER WILL RESULT IN THE FIRST
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUMMERTIME HEAT AND CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES THAT
CENTRAL NC HAS SEEN THIS SEASON. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED
TO RUN 25 TO 30 METERS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM 90 TO 95F WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 68 TO
74F.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-
ATLANTIC STATES WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE LONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO APPROACH NC FROM THE
NORTH...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS REALLY
WASHES OUT THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
PERIOD. AS SUCH...GRIDDED DATABASE WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON...FIRING WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG A LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE AREA AS THE LOW CLOUDS LIFTED
INTO A 4-5 KFT CLOUD DECK. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND MOVING SEA-BREEZE.
THUS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST...BUT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW AS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH RESPECT TO EXACT TIMING/LOCATION (ALTHOUGH KFAY MAY HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE). THEN...ONCE AGAIN PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY/MID NEXT
WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND A
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301830 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALOFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE REMAIN OVER THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...
ALLOWING A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE AREA. THE SEA
BREEZE HAS BECOME FAIRLY ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INLAND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH A ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM OR TWO WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE FURTHER TO THE WEST.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 70. PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT AS THE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO START THE DAY WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ITS ASSOCIATED ENERGY AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME (EMANATING
FROM THE GULF) WILL LARGELY REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF CENTRAL NC. IN
ADDITION...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST THINKING OF ONLY ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
WEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ABOVE FEATURES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...

WITH ROUGHLY 3 WEEKS OF SUMMER REMAINING (AUTUMN EQUINOX IS SEPT
23)...THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES RETREATING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER WILL RESULT IN THE FIRST
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUMMERTIME HEAT AND CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES THAT
CENTRAL NC HAS SEEN THIS SEASON. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED
TO RUN 25 TO 30 METERS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM 90 TO 95F WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 68 TO
74F.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-
ATLANTIC STATES WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE LONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO APPROACH NC FROM THE
NORTH...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS REALLY
WASHES OUT THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
PERIOD. AS SUCH...GRIDDED DATABASE WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON...FIRING WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG A LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE AREA AS THE LOW CLOUDS LIFTED
INTO A 4-5 KFT CLOUD DECK. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND MOVING SEA-BREEZE.
THUS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST...BUT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW AS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH RESPECT TO EXACT TIMING/LOCATION (ALTHOUGH KFAY MAY HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE). THEN...ONCE AGAIN PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY/MID NEXT
WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND A
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 301830
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALOFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE REMAIN OVER THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...
ALLOWING A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE AREA. THE SEA
BREEZE HAS BECOME FAIRLY ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INLAND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH A ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM OR TWO WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE FURTHER TO THE WEST.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 70. PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT AS THE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO START THE DAY WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ITS ASSOCIATED ENERGY AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME (EMANATING
FROM THE GULF) WILL LARGELY REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF CENTRAL NC. IN
ADDITION...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST THINKING OF ONLY ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
WEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ABOVE FEATURES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...

WITH ROUGHLY 3 WEEKS OF SUMMER REMAINING (AUTUMN EQUINOX IS SEPT
23)...THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES RETREATING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER WILL RESULT IN THE FIRST
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUMMERTIME HEAT AND CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES THAT
CENTRAL NC HAS SEEN THIS SEASON. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED
TO RUN 25 TO 30 METERS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM 90 TO 95F WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 68 TO
74F.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-
ATLANTIC STATES WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE LONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO APPROACH NC FROM THE
NORTH...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS REALLY
WASHES OUT THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
PERIOD. AS SUCH...GRIDDED DATABASE WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON...FIRING WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG A LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE AREA AS THE LOW CLOUDS LIFTED
INTO A 4-5 KFT CLOUD DECK. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND MOVING SEA-BREEZE.
THUS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST...BUT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW AS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH RESPECT TO EXACT TIMING/LOCATION (ALTHOUGH KFAY MAY HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE). THEN...ONCE AGAIN PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY/MID NEXT
WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND A
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 301830
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALOFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE REMAIN OVER THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...
ALLOWING A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE AREA. THE SEA
BREEZE HAS BECOME FAIRLY ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INLAND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OCCURRING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH A ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM OR TWO WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE FURTHER TO THE WEST.
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 70. PATCHY FOG AND/OR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT AS THE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO START THE DAY WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ITS ASSOCIATED ENERGY AND DEEP MOISTURE PLUME (EMANATING
FROM THE GULF) WILL LARGELY REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF CENTRAL NC. IN
ADDITION...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE FORECAST THINKING OF ONLY ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
WEST DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ABOVE FEATURES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...

WITH ROUGHLY 3 WEEKS OF SUMMER REMAINING (AUTUMN EQUINOX IS SEPT
23)...THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES RETREATING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER WILL RESULT IN THE FIRST
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUMMERTIME HEAT AND CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES THAT
CENTRAL NC HAS SEEN THIS SEASON. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED
TO RUN 25 TO 30 METERS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM 90 TO 95F WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 68 TO
74F.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-
ATLANTIC STATES WILL TEMPORARILY FLATTEN THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE LONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO APPROACH NC FROM THE
NORTH...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS REALLY
WASHES OUT THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
PERIOD. AS SUCH...GRIDDED DATABASE WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON...FIRING WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG A LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE AREA AS THE LOW CLOUDS LIFTED
INTO A 4-5 KFT CLOUD DECK. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND MOVING SEA-BREEZE.
THUS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST...BUT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW AS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH RESPECT TO EXACT TIMING/LOCATION (ALTHOUGH KFAY MAY HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE). THEN...ONCE AGAIN PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY/MID NEXT
WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND A
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301742
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
142 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALOFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT IS SLOWLY BURNING
OFF/LIFTING THIS MORNING. THEN...A MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DAY IS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE PERSIST OVER
CENTRAL NC. THE FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY IS HARD
TO DISTINGUISH THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS THE SURFACE HIGH
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY POSSIBLE ISOLATED
PRECIP TODAY WILL BE THE SEABREEZE (AND ANY RESULTANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES) AND THUS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S AND AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MISS VALLEY EARLY IN THE DAY WILL LIFT
NE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE DAY.  ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL FLOW
NORTHWARD ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...AND WILL INCREASE
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL BE MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST CLOSER TO THE WAVE...AND
NEAR THE COAST INVOF THE SEA BREEZE.   TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO PERSISTENT RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW.  HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 90S SUNDAY AND LOWS AROUND 70 SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 257 AM SATURDAY...

UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST REAL
"EXTEND" TIME THIS SUMMER OVER NC. THEREFORE... ANY SURFACE FRONTS
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING THIS
FAR SOUTH... LIKELY STALLING OVER VA OR NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. WE
WILL MAINTAIN A FORECAST THAT DEPICTS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
HIGHS/LOWS... AND VERY NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR PM THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
(THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THIS PATTERN) DURING SUMMER. EXPECT
DAILY HIGHS GENERALLY 88-94 NW TO SANDHILLS WITH LOWS 68-73. THESE
NUMBERS WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A DAILY CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE LOWEST TUE
(15-20 PERCENT)... THEN PICK UP SLIGHTLY WED-FRI (30-40) PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE AREA AS THE LOW CLOUDS LIFTED
INTO A 4-5 KFT CLOUD DECK. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND MOVING SEA-BREEZE.
THUS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST...BUT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW AS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH RESPECT TO EXACT TIMING/LOCATION (ALTHOUGH KFAY MAY HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE). THEN...ONCE AGAIN PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY/MID NEXT
WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND A
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 301742
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
142 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALOFT OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT IS SLOWLY BURNING
OFF/LIFTING THIS MORNING. THEN...A MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DAY IS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE PERSIST OVER
CENTRAL NC. THE FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY IS HARD
TO DISTINGUISH THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS THE SURFACE HIGH
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY POSSIBLE ISOLATED
PRECIP TODAY WILL BE THE SEABREEZE (AND ANY RESULTANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES) AND THUS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S AND AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MISS VALLEY EARLY IN THE DAY WILL LIFT
NE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE DAY.  ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL FLOW
NORTHWARD ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...AND WILL INCREASE
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL BE MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST CLOSER TO THE WAVE...AND
NEAR THE COAST INVOF THE SEA BREEZE.   TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO PERSISTENT RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW.  HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 90S SUNDAY AND LOWS AROUND 70 SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 257 AM SATURDAY...

UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST REAL
"EXTEND" TIME THIS SUMMER OVER NC. THEREFORE... ANY SURFACE FRONTS
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING THIS
FAR SOUTH... LIKELY STALLING OVER VA OR NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. WE
WILL MAINTAIN A FORECAST THAT DEPICTS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
HIGHS/LOWS... AND VERY NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR PM THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
(THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THIS PATTERN) DURING SUMMER. EXPECT
DAILY HIGHS GENERALLY 88-94 NW TO SANDHILLS WITH LOWS 68-73. THESE
NUMBERS WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A DAILY CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE LOWEST TUE
(15-20 PERCENT)... THEN PICK UP SLIGHTLY WED-FRI (30-40) PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE AREA AS THE LOW CLOUDS LIFTED
INTO A 4-5 KFT CLOUD DECK. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE INLAND MOVING SEA-BREEZE.
THUS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST...BUT HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW AS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH RESPECT TO EXACT TIMING/LOCATION (ALTHOUGH KFAY MAY HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE). THEN...ONCE AGAIN PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY/MID NEXT
WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND A
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301431
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1031 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NC AND VA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALOFT OVER
OUR REGION INTO MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM SATURDAY...

THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT IS SLOWLY BURNING
OFF/LIFTING THIS MORNING. THEN...A MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DAY IS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE PERSIST OVER
CENTRAL NC. THE FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY IS HARD
TO DISTINGUISH THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AS THE SURFACE HIGH
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY POSSIBLE ISOLATED
PRECIP TODAY WILL BE THE SEABREEZE (AND ANY RESULTANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES) AND THUS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S AND AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MISS VALLEY EARLY IN THE DAY WILL LIFT
NE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE DAY.  ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL FLOW
NORTHWARD ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...AND WILL INCREASE
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL BE MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST CLOSER TO THE WAVE...AND
NEAR THE COAST INVOF THE SEA BREEZE.   TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO PERSISTENT RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW.  HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 90S SUNDAY AND LOWS AROUND 70 SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 257 AM SATURDAY...

UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST REAL
"EXTEND" TIME THIS SUMMER OVER NC. THEREFORE... ANY SURFACE FRONTS
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING THIS
FAR SOUTH... LIKELY STALLING OVER VA OR NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. WE
WILL MAINTAIN A FORECAST THAT DEPICTS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
HIGHS/LOWS... AND VERY NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR PM THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
(THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THIS PATTERN) DURING SUMMER. EXPECT
DAILY HIGHS GENERALLY 88-94 NW TO SANDHILLS WITH LOWS 68-73. THESE
NUMBERS WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A DAILY CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE LOWEST TUE
(15-20 PERCENT)... THEN PICK UP SLIGHTLY WED-FRI (30-40) PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CIGS ONGOING ATTM AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
12-13Z AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT NE WINDS IN THE WAKE
OF THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH ARE HELPING TO FACILITATE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 13Z WITH HEATING
AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH 31/06Z.  AFT 06Z...PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED MVFR OR PERHAPS
IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY/MID NEXT
WEEK...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION AND A
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/PWB
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...NP





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