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000
FXUS62 KRAH 261844
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL OFFSHORE
THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM THURSDAY...

BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER EDGING SLOWLY EAST...AWAY FROM
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. 12Z GSO DEPICTS A DEEP AREA
OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WITH THE BASE OF THE DRIER AIR NEAR 5000FT. AS
SUN ANGLE INCREASES...THIS DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TOWARD
THE SURFACE...LEADING TO A DECREASE IN CLOUDINES THIS AFTERNOON.

INCREASING SUN AND WARM BREEZY SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO
SHOOT WELL INTO THE 70S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMP REBOUND
MAY BE A LITTLE DELAYED IN THE TRIAD REGION/NW PIEDMONT WHERE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS A LITTLE THICKER. AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THIS AREA WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 70S.

ONLY APPRECIABLE FORCING FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE ATTRIBUTED TO HEATING. WRF MODELS SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM POSSIBLE BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM...MAINLY SOUTH OF RDU.

EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO RE DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT AS
SFC COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

WHILE A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LACKING. ANY CELL THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF RDU. IF THIS
WAS TO OCCUR...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS (40-50 MPH)
AND SOME HAIL. -WSS

TONIGHT: A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FORWARD PROGRESS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS STRONG
DPVA /HEIGHT FALLS/ ATTENDANT AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND STRONG DEEP-
LAYER FORCING...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...
PREDOMINATELY OF THE ANAFRONTAL /ELEVATED/ VARIETY...THOUGH A NARROW
LINE OF LOW-TOPPED SFC-BASED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
FRONT EAST OF HWY 1. LOW TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON A COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION AND PRECIP /EVAP COOLING/...FALLING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S
TO THE LOWER/MID 40S FROM WNW TO ESE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST (I.E. FAY/CTZ/GSB) WHERE THE WARM SECTOR COULD PERSIST
INTACT THROUGH 12Z AND TEMPS WOULD HOVER AT OR NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY: EXPECT LINGERING ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT /WARM ADVECTION/
PERSISTS ATOP A DEVELOPING POST-FRONTAL CAD WEDGE...IN ADVANCE OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH RAIN PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ESP
EAST OF HWY 1. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED THE LOW/MID
40S...EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY BREAK
SEVERAL HRS PRIOR TO SUNSET AND A WARM-UP INTO THE UPPER 40S /NEAR
50F/ WOULD BE POSSIBLE. -VINCENT

THE UPPER TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS VORT MAX ROTATES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE WANE AFTER
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT STRONG OMEGA AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE. AS
AN ADDED BONUS...THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE DOES BECOME SATURATED AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA FALL INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS SOME
LOWER 30S. WILL OPTIMISTICALLY ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN CWFA AS POPS ARE TAILING OFF IN THE
PREDAWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...

THIS WEEKEND: THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE COLD
TEMPERATURES... IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE NW OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN AIRMASS
THAT FEATURES LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ABOUT 60M BELOW NORMAL. DESPITE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND AMPLE SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY...HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL ONLY CLIMB TO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOOK FOR SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPS ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
AIRMASS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WIND UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER. RIGHT NOW WE`RE SHOWING LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS
THE TRIAD TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...BUT WITH
THE HIGH CENTERED OVER US BY 12Z SUN...THOSE TEMPS MAY END UP EVEN
COLDER IN SPOTS. WE`LL BEGIN TO SEE SOME MODERATION ON SUNDAY AS THE
HIGH CENTER SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST...BUT STILL ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: A SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT ASIDE
FROM A FEW PASSING SPRINKLES...RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT FEATURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS MOSTLY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS
OUR AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PRIOR TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THAT
FRONT APPEARS TO COME THROUGH DRY AS WELL...GIVEN THAT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH. RAIN
CHANCES MAY INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO OUR
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME....LOOK FOR A GRADUAL
WARMUP...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL THANKS TO THE PATTERN
DEAMPLIFYING AND BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH TIME ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM THURSDAY...

CURRENT MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR
ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY MID AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR A FEW THOUSAND FEET
ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND DIMINISH THE LOW CLOUD DECK. SFC
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE SW WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 20-
24KTS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS.
THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN BETWEEN 07Z-10Z...AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INCLUDING KFAY
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE NOTED BY SFC WINDS QUICKLY
VEERING TO A NLY DIRECTION AND BECOMING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS
PROBABLE.

THE ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO
SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NWLY AND ADVECTS A DRIER AIR
MASS INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/MLM
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 261844
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL OFFSHORE
THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM THURSDAY...

BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER EDGING SLOWLY EAST...AWAY FROM
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. 12Z GSO DEPICTS A DEEP AREA
OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WITH THE BASE OF THE DRIER AIR NEAR 5000FT. AS
SUN ANGLE INCREASES...THIS DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TOWARD
THE SURFACE...LEADING TO A DECREASE IN CLOUDINES THIS AFTERNOON.

INCREASING SUN AND WARM BREEZY SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO
SHOOT WELL INTO THE 70S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMP REBOUND
MAY BE A LITTLE DELAYED IN THE TRIAD REGION/NW PIEDMONT WHERE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS A LITTLE THICKER. AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THIS AREA WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 70S.

ONLY APPRECIABLE FORCING FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE ATTRIBUTED TO HEATING. WRF MODELS SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM POSSIBLE BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM...MAINLY SOUTH OF RDU.

EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO RE DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT AS
SFC COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

WHILE A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LACKING. ANY CELL THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF RDU. IF THIS
WAS TO OCCUR...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS (40-50 MPH)
AND SOME HAIL. -WSS

TONIGHT: A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FORWARD PROGRESS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS STRONG
DPVA /HEIGHT FALLS/ ATTENDANT AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND STRONG DEEP-
LAYER FORCING...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...
PREDOMINATELY OF THE ANAFRONTAL /ELEVATED/ VARIETY...THOUGH A NARROW
LINE OF LOW-TOPPED SFC-BASED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
FRONT EAST OF HWY 1. LOW TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON A COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION AND PRECIP /EVAP COOLING/...FALLING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S
TO THE LOWER/MID 40S FROM WNW TO ESE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST (I.E. FAY/CTZ/GSB) WHERE THE WARM SECTOR COULD PERSIST
INTACT THROUGH 12Z AND TEMPS WOULD HOVER AT OR NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY: EXPECT LINGERING ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT /WARM ADVECTION/
PERSISTS ATOP A DEVELOPING POST-FRONTAL CAD WEDGE...IN ADVANCE OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH RAIN PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ESP
EAST OF HWY 1. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED THE LOW/MID
40S...EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY BREAK
SEVERAL HRS PRIOR TO SUNSET AND A WARM-UP INTO THE UPPER 40S /NEAR
50F/ WOULD BE POSSIBLE. -VINCENT

THE UPPER TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS VORT MAX ROTATES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE WANE AFTER
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT STRONG OMEGA AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE. AS
AN ADDED BONUS...THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE DOES BECOME SATURATED AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA FALL INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS SOME
LOWER 30S. WILL OPTIMISTICALLY ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN CWFA AS POPS ARE TAILING OFF IN THE
PREDAWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...

THIS WEEKEND: THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE COLD
TEMPERATURES... IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE NW OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN AIRMASS
THAT FEATURES LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ABOUT 60M BELOW NORMAL. DESPITE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND AMPLE SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY...HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL ONLY CLIMB TO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOOK FOR SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPS ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
AIRMASS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WIND UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER. RIGHT NOW WE`RE SHOWING LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS
THE TRIAD TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...BUT WITH
THE HIGH CENTERED OVER US BY 12Z SUN...THOSE TEMPS MAY END UP EVEN
COLDER IN SPOTS. WE`LL BEGIN TO SEE SOME MODERATION ON SUNDAY AS THE
HIGH CENTER SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST...BUT STILL ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: A SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT ASIDE
FROM A FEW PASSING SPRINKLES...RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT FEATURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS MOSTLY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS
OUR AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PRIOR TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THAT
FRONT APPEARS TO COME THROUGH DRY AS WELL...GIVEN THAT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH. RAIN
CHANCES MAY INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO OUR
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME....LOOK FOR A GRADUAL
WARMUP...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL THANKS TO THE PATTERN
DEAMPLIFYING AND BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH TIME ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM THURSDAY...

CURRENT MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR
ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY MID AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR A FEW THOUSAND FEET
ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND DIMINISH THE LOW CLOUD DECK. SFC
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE SW WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 20-
24KTS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS.
THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN BETWEEN 07Z-10Z...AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INCLUDING KFAY
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE NOTED BY SFC WINDS QUICKLY
VEERING TO A NLY DIRECTION AND BECOMING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS
PROBABLE.

THE ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO
SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NWLY AND ADVECTS A DRIER AIR
MASS INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/MLM
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 261714
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
115 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL OFFSHORE
THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM THURSDAY...

BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER EDGING SLOWLY EAST...AWAY FROM
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. 12Z GSO DEPICTS A DEEP AREA
OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WITH THE BASE OF THE DRIER AIR NEAR 5000FT. AS
SUN ANGLE INCREASES...THIS DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TOWARD
THE SURFACE...LEADING TO A DECREASE IN CLOUDINES THIS AFTERNOON.

INCREASING SUN AND WARM BREEZY SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO
SHOOT WELL INTO THE 70S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMP REBOUND
MAY BE A LITTLE DELAYED IN THE TRIAD REGION/NW PIEDMONT WHERE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS A LITTLE THICKER. AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THIS AREA WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 70S.

ONLY APPRECIABLE FORCING FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE ATTRIBUTED TO HEATING. WRF MODELS SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM POSSIBLE BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM...MAINLY SOUTH OF RDU.

EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO RE DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT AS
SFC COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

WHILE A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LACKING. ANY CELL THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF RDU. IF THIS
WAS TO OCCUR...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS (40-50 MPH)
AND SOME HAIL. -WSS

TONIGHT: A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FORWARD PROGRESS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS STRONG
DPVA /HEIGHT FALLS/ ATTENDANT AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND STRONG DEEP-
LAYER FORCING...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...
PREDOMINATELY OF THE ANAFRONTAL /ELEVATED/ VARIETY...THOUGH A NARROW
LINE OF LOW-TOPPED SFC-BASED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
FRONT EAST OF HWY 1. LOW TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON A COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION AND PRECIP /EVAP COOLING/...FALLING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S
TO THE LOWER/MID 40S FROM WNW TO ESE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST (I.E. FAY/CTZ/GSB) WHERE THE WARM SECTOR COULD PERSIST
INTACT THROUGH 12Z AND TEMPS WOULD HOVER AT OR NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY: EXPECT LINGERING ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT /WARM ADVECTION/
PERSISTS ATOP A DEVELOPING POST-FRONTAL CAD WEDGE...IN ADVANCE OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH RAIN PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ESP
EAST OF HWY 1. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED THE LOW/MID
40S...EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY BREAK
SEVERAL HRS PRIOR TO SUNSET AND A WARM-UP INTO THE UPPER 40S /NEAR
50F/ WOULD BE POSSIBLE. -VINCENT

THE UPPER TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS VORT MAX ROTATES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE WANE AFTER
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT STRONG OMEGA AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE. AS
AN ADDED BONUS...THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE DOES BECOME SATURATED AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA FALL INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS SOME
LOWER 30S. WILL OPTIMISTICALLY ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN CWFA AS POPS ARE TAILING OFF IN THE
PREDAWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THICKNESSES
SUPPORTING PERSISTENT MOS GUIDANCE OF UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON
SATURDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL RADIATE NICELY SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND MINS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
20S...WITH SOME MID 20S IN OUTLYING AREAS. RISING HEIGHTS AND RETURN
FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW RECOVERY TO COMMENCE ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.

A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS FLOW REMAINS
PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY...WHICH WILL ALSO PREVENT THE FRONTS
REINFORCING THE COLD AIRMASS SIGNIFICANTLY. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S...WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND
HIGHS A TOUCH WARMER WITH MORE SUN...MID TO UPPER 60S.

FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER MAKER IN THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
INCREASING INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER...AND WILL INCREASE POPS
INCREMENTALLY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED WARMING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM THURSDAY...

CURRENT MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR
ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY MID AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR A FEW THOUSAND FEET
ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND DIMINISH THE LOW CLOUD DECK. SFC
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE SW WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 20-
24KTS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS.
THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN BETWEEN 07Z-10Z...AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INCLUDING KFAY
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE NOTED BY SFC WINDS QUICKLY
VEERING TO A NLY DIRECTION AND BECOMING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS
PROBABLE.

THE ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO
SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NWLY AND ADVECTS A DRIER AIR
MASS INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 261714
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
115 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL OFFSHORE
THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM THURSDAY...

BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER EDGING SLOWLY EAST...AWAY FROM
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. 12Z GSO DEPICTS A DEEP AREA
OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WITH THE BASE OF THE DRIER AIR NEAR 5000FT. AS
SUN ANGLE INCREASES...THIS DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TOWARD
THE SURFACE...LEADING TO A DECREASE IN CLOUDINES THIS AFTERNOON.

INCREASING SUN AND WARM BREEZY SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO
SHOOT WELL INTO THE 70S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMP REBOUND
MAY BE A LITTLE DELAYED IN THE TRIAD REGION/NW PIEDMONT WHERE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS A LITTLE THICKER. AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THIS AREA WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 70S.

ONLY APPRECIABLE FORCING FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE ATTRIBUTED TO HEATING. WRF MODELS SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM POSSIBLE BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM...MAINLY SOUTH OF RDU.

EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO RE DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT AS
SFC COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

WHILE A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LACKING. ANY CELL THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF RDU. IF THIS
WAS TO OCCUR...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS (40-50 MPH)
AND SOME HAIL. -WSS

TONIGHT: A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FORWARD PROGRESS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS STRONG
DPVA /HEIGHT FALLS/ ATTENDANT AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND STRONG DEEP-
LAYER FORCING...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...
PREDOMINATELY OF THE ANAFRONTAL /ELEVATED/ VARIETY...THOUGH A NARROW
LINE OF LOW-TOPPED SFC-BASED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
FRONT EAST OF HWY 1. LOW TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON A COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION AND PRECIP /EVAP COOLING/...FALLING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S
TO THE LOWER/MID 40S FROM WNW TO ESE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST (I.E. FAY/CTZ/GSB) WHERE THE WARM SECTOR COULD PERSIST
INTACT THROUGH 12Z AND TEMPS WOULD HOVER AT OR NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY: EXPECT LINGERING ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT /WARM ADVECTION/
PERSISTS ATOP A DEVELOPING POST-FRONTAL CAD WEDGE...IN ADVANCE OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH RAIN PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ESP
EAST OF HWY 1. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED THE LOW/MID
40S...EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY BREAK
SEVERAL HRS PRIOR TO SUNSET AND A WARM-UP INTO THE UPPER 40S /NEAR
50F/ WOULD BE POSSIBLE. -VINCENT

THE UPPER TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS VORT MAX ROTATES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE WANE AFTER
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT STRONG OMEGA AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE. AS
AN ADDED BONUS...THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE DOES BECOME SATURATED AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA FALL INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS SOME
LOWER 30S. WILL OPTIMISTICALLY ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN CWFA AS POPS ARE TAILING OFF IN THE
PREDAWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THICKNESSES
SUPPORTING PERSISTENT MOS GUIDANCE OF UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON
SATURDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL RADIATE NICELY SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND MINS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
20S...WITH SOME MID 20S IN OUTLYING AREAS. RISING HEIGHTS AND RETURN
FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW RECOVERY TO COMMENCE ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.

A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS FLOW REMAINS
PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY...WHICH WILL ALSO PREVENT THE FRONTS
REINFORCING THE COLD AIRMASS SIGNIFICANTLY. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S...WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND
HIGHS A TOUCH WARMER WITH MORE SUN...MID TO UPPER 60S.

FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER MAKER IN THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
INCREASING INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER...AND WILL INCREASE POPS
INCREMENTALLY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED WARMING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM THURSDAY...

CURRENT MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR
ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY MID AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR A FEW THOUSAND FEET
ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND DIMINISH THE LOW CLOUD DECK. SFC
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE SW WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 20-
24KTS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS.
THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN BETWEEN 07Z-10Z...AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INCLUDING KFAY
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE NOTED BY SFC WINDS QUICKLY
VEERING TO A NLY DIRECTION AND BECOMING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS
PROBABLE.

THE ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO
SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NWLY AND ADVECTS A DRIER AIR
MASS INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 261449
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1050 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL OFFSHORE
THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM THURSDAY...

BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER EDGING SLOWLY EAST...AWAY FROM
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. 12Z GSO DEPICTS A DEEP AREA
OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WITH THE BASE OF THE DRIER AIR NEAR 5000FT. AS
SUN ANGLE INCREASES...THIS DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TOWARD
THE SURFACE...LEADING TO A DECREASE IN CLOUDINES THIS AFTERNOON.

INCREASING SUN AND WARM BREEZY SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO
SHOOT WELL INTO THE 70S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMP REBOUND
MAY BE A LITTLE DELAYED IN THE TRIAD REGION/NW PIEDMONT WHERE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS A LITTLE THICKER. AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THIS AREA WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 70S.

ONLY APPRECIABLE FORCING FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE ATTRIBUTED TO HEATING. WRF MODELS SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM POSSIBLE BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM...MAINLY SOUTH OF RDU.

EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO RE DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT AS
SFC COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

WHILE A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LACKING. ANY CELL THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF RDU. IF THIS
WAS TO OCCUR...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS (40-50 MPH)
AND SOME HAIL. -WSS

TONIGHT: A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FORWARD PROGRESS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS STRONG
DPVA /HEIGHT FALLS/ ATTENDANT AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND STRONG DEEP-
LAYER FORCING...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...
PREDOMINATELY OF THE ANAFRONTAL /ELEVATED/ VARIETY...THOUGH A NARROW
LINE OF LOW-TOPPED SFC-BASED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
FRONT EAST OF HWY 1. LOW TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON A COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION AND PRECIP /EVAP COOLING/...FALLING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S
TO THE LOWER/MID 40S FROM WNW TO ESE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST (I.E. FAY/CTZ/GSB) WHERE THE WARM SECTOR COULD PERSIST
INTACT THROUGH 12Z AND TEMPS WOULD HOVER AT OR NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY: EXPECT LINGERING ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT /WARM ADVECTION/
PERSISTS ATOP A DEVELOPING POST-FRONTAL CAD WEDGE...IN ADVANCE OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH RAIN PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ESP
EAST OF HWY 1. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED THE LOW/MID
40S...EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY BREAK
SEVERAL HRS PRIOR TO SUNSET AND A WARM-UP INTO THE UPPER 40S /NEAR
50F/ WOULD BE POSSIBLE. -VINCENT

THE UPPER TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS VORT MAX ROTATES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE WANE AFTER
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT STRONG OMEGA AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE. AS
AN ADDED BONUS...THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE DOES BECOME SATURATED AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA FALL INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS SOME
LOWER 30S. WILL OPTIMISTICALLY ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN CWFA AS POPS ARE TAILING OFF IN THE
PREDAWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THICKNESSES
SUPPORTING PERSISTENT MOS GUIDANCE OF UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON
SATURDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL RADIATE NICELY SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND MINS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
20S...WITH SOME MID 20S IN OUTLYING AREAS. RISING HEIGHTS AND RETURN
FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW RECOVERY TO COMMENCE ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.

A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS FLOW REMAINS
PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY...WHICH WILL ALSO PREVENT THE FRONTS
REINFORCING THE COLD AIRMASS SIGNIFICANTLY. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S...WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND
HIGHS A TOUCH WARMER WITH MORE SUN...MID TO UPPER 60S.

FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER MAKER IN THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
INCREASING INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER...AND WILL INCREASE POPS
INCREMENTALLY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED WARMING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION AND A BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS...BECOMING
SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT. IMPROVED CONDITIONS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KT (GUSTS TO
20 KT) ALONG WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 06-12Z FRI...WITH ONLY MARGINAL
IMPROVEMENT TO IFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: IFR CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM WEST-EAST LATE FRI/FRI EVENING...AND VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
FOR A PERIOD. HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE
REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER 06Z SAT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 261449
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1050 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL OFFSHORE
THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM THURSDAY...

BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER EDGING SLOWLY EAST...AWAY FROM
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. 12Z GSO DEPICTS A DEEP AREA
OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WITH THE BASE OF THE DRIER AIR NEAR 5000FT. AS
SUN ANGLE INCREASES...THIS DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TOWARD
THE SURFACE...LEADING TO A DECREASE IN CLOUDINES THIS AFTERNOON.

INCREASING SUN AND WARM BREEZY SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO
SHOOT WELL INTO THE 70S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMP REBOUND
MAY BE A LITTLE DELAYED IN THE TRIAD REGION/NW PIEDMONT WHERE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS A LITTLE THICKER. AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THIS AREA WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 70S.

ONLY APPRECIABLE FORCING FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE ATTRIBUTED TO HEATING. WRF MODELS SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM POSSIBLE BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM...MAINLY SOUTH OF RDU.

EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO RE DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT AS
SFC COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.

WHILE A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY
EVENING...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LACKING. ANY CELL THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF RDU. IF THIS
WAS TO OCCUR...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS (40-50 MPH)
AND SOME HAIL. -WSS

TONIGHT: A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FORWARD PROGRESS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS STRONG
DPVA /HEIGHT FALLS/ ATTENDANT AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND STRONG DEEP-
LAYER FORCING...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...
PREDOMINATELY OF THE ANAFRONTAL /ELEVATED/ VARIETY...THOUGH A NARROW
LINE OF LOW-TOPPED SFC-BASED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
FRONT EAST OF HWY 1. LOW TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON A COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION AND PRECIP /EVAP COOLING/...FALLING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S
TO THE LOWER/MID 40S FROM WNW TO ESE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST (I.E. FAY/CTZ/GSB) WHERE THE WARM SECTOR COULD PERSIST
INTACT THROUGH 12Z AND TEMPS WOULD HOVER AT OR NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY: EXPECT LINGERING ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT /WARM ADVECTION/
PERSISTS ATOP A DEVELOPING POST-FRONTAL CAD WEDGE...IN ADVANCE OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH RAIN PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ESP
EAST OF HWY 1. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED THE LOW/MID
40S...EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY BREAK
SEVERAL HRS PRIOR TO SUNSET AND A WARM-UP INTO THE UPPER 40S /NEAR
50F/ WOULD BE POSSIBLE. -VINCENT

THE UPPER TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS VORT MAX ROTATES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE WANE AFTER
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT STRONG OMEGA AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE. AS
AN ADDED BONUS...THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE DOES BECOME SATURATED AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA FALL INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS SOME
LOWER 30S. WILL OPTIMISTICALLY ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN CWFA AS POPS ARE TAILING OFF IN THE
PREDAWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THICKNESSES
SUPPORTING PERSISTENT MOS GUIDANCE OF UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON
SATURDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL RADIATE NICELY SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND MINS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
20S...WITH SOME MID 20S IN OUTLYING AREAS. RISING HEIGHTS AND RETURN
FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW RECOVERY TO COMMENCE ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.

A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS FLOW REMAINS
PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY...WHICH WILL ALSO PREVENT THE FRONTS
REINFORCING THE COLD AIRMASS SIGNIFICANTLY. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S...WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND
HIGHS A TOUCH WARMER WITH MORE SUN...MID TO UPPER 60S.

FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER MAKER IN THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
INCREASING INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER...AND WILL INCREASE POPS
INCREMENTALLY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED WARMING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION AND A BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS...BECOMING
SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT. IMPROVED CONDITIONS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KT (GUSTS TO
20 KT) ALONG WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 06-12Z FRI...WITH ONLY MARGINAL
IMPROVEMENT TO IFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: IFR CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM WEST-EAST LATE FRI/FRI EVENING...AND VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
FOR A PERIOD. HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE
REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER 06Z SAT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 261201
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...

TODAY: LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION VIA A 30-KT SOUTHERLY LLJ
BENEATH THE MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING IS RESULTING IN NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH MUCAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG (MUCAPE) OVER CENTRAL NC. GIVEN
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SFC
CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SEPARATING THE
WARM SECTOR (EAST) FROM RESIDUAL CAD WEDGE (WEST) NEAR THE HWY 1
CORRIDOR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH ACTIVITY
SHIFTING INTO EAST/NE PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MID/LATE MORNING AS
WARM ADVECTION SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM AND FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST...
ADVECTING A DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS...IN
ADDITION TO DEEPER VERTICAL MIXING (IN COMPARISON TO PRIOR DAYS) AND
THE PRESENCE OF A MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (7.0-7.5 C/KM H7-H5
LR) WILL RESULT IN A CAPPED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY WEAK DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND ~50 J/KG OF CIN DURING PEAK
HEATING. ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROGUE SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE
IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ALOFT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OTHERWISE
BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL INDICATE A
DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A LOW-TOPPED SHOWER IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S...LOWER/MID 70S NW PIEDMONT AND UPPER
70S ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1.

SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING: A VERY LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD
SVR STORM WILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09-15Z AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES FROM THE WEST IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WARMING/MOISTENING BENEATH THE
MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN PLACE. THOUGH CONVECTION WOULD
LARGELY BE ELEVATED WEST OF HWY 1...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME SFC-BASED AS IT PROPAGATES/RE-DEVELOPS EASTWARD
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN ALONG THE NOSE OF THE SOUTHERLY LLJ. HAZARDS
WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD INCLUDE SEVERE
WIND...HAIL...OR A BRIEF LOW-END TOR. GIVEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL FORCING...CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW WITH REGARD TO
WHETHER OR NOT SUCH A THREAT WILL EVEN MATERIALIZE.

TONIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FORWARD PROGRESS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS STRONG
DPVA /HEIGHT FALLS/ ATTENDANT AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND STRONG DEEP-
LAYER FORCING...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...
PREDOMINATELY OF THE ANAFRONTAL /ELEVATED/ VARIETY...THOUGH A NARROW
LINE OF LOW-TOPPED SFC-BASED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
FRONT EAST OF HWY 1. LOW TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON A COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION AND PRECIP /EVAP COOLING/...FALLING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S
TO THE LOWER/MID 40S FROM WNW TO ESE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST (I.E. FAY/CTZ/GSB) WHERE THE WARM SECTOR COULD PERSIST
INTACT THROUGH 12Z AND TEMPS WOULD HOVER AT OR NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY: EXPECT LINGERING ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT /WARM ADVECTION/
PERSISTS ATOP A DEVELOPING POST-FRONTAL CAD WEDGE...IN ADVANCE OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH RAIN PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ESP
EAST OF HWY 1. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED THE LOW/MID
40S...EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY BREAK
SEVERAL HRS PRIOR TO SUNSET AND A WARM-UP INTO THE UPPER 40S /NEAR
50F/ WOULD BE POSSIBLE. -VINCENT

THE UPPER TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS VORT MAX ROTATES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE WANE AFTER
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT STRONG OMEGA AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE. AS
AN ADDED BONUS...THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE DOES BECOME SATURATED AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA FALL INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS SOME
LOWER 30S. WILL OPTIMISTICALLY ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN CWFA AS POPS ARE TAILING OFF IN THE
PREDAWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THICKNESSES
SUPPORTING PERSISTENT MOS GUIDANCE OF UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON
SATURDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL RADIATE NICELY SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND MINS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
20S...WITH SOME MID 20S IN OUTLYING AREAS. RISING HEIGHTS AND RETURN
FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW RECOVERY TO COMMENCE ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.

A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS FLOW REMAINS
PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY...WHICH WILL ALSO PREVENT THE FRONTS
REINFORCING THE COLD AIRMASS SIGNIFICANTLY. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S...WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND
HIGHS A TOUCH WARMER WITH MORE SUN...MID TO UPPER 60S.

FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER MAKER IN THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
INCREASING INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER...AND WILL INCREASE POPS
INCREMENTALLY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED WARMING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION AND A BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS...BECOMING
SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT. IMPROVED CONDITIONS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KT (GUSTS TO
20 KT) ALONG WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 06-12Z FRI...WITH ONLY MARGINAL
IMPROVEMENT TO IFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: IFR CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM WEST-EAST LATE FRI/FRI EVENING...AND VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
FOR A PERIOD. HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE
REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER 06Z SAT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 261201
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...

TODAY: LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION VIA A 30-KT SOUTHERLY LLJ
BENEATH THE MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING IS RESULTING IN NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH MUCAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG (MUCAPE) OVER CENTRAL NC. GIVEN
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SFC
CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SEPARATING THE
WARM SECTOR (EAST) FROM RESIDUAL CAD WEDGE (WEST) NEAR THE HWY 1
CORRIDOR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH ACTIVITY
SHIFTING INTO EAST/NE PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MID/LATE MORNING AS
WARM ADVECTION SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM AND FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST...
ADVECTING A DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS...IN
ADDITION TO DEEPER VERTICAL MIXING (IN COMPARISON TO PRIOR DAYS) AND
THE PRESENCE OF A MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (7.0-7.5 C/KM H7-H5
LR) WILL RESULT IN A CAPPED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY WEAK DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND ~50 J/KG OF CIN DURING PEAK
HEATING. ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROGUE SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE
IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ALOFT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OTHERWISE
BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL INDICATE A
DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A LOW-TOPPED SHOWER IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S...LOWER/MID 70S NW PIEDMONT AND UPPER
70S ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1.

SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING: A VERY LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD
SVR STORM WILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09-15Z AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES FROM THE WEST IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WARMING/MOISTENING BENEATH THE
MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN PLACE. THOUGH CONVECTION WOULD
LARGELY BE ELEVATED WEST OF HWY 1...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME SFC-BASED AS IT PROPAGATES/RE-DEVELOPS EASTWARD
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN ALONG THE NOSE OF THE SOUTHERLY LLJ. HAZARDS
WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD INCLUDE SEVERE
WIND...HAIL...OR A BRIEF LOW-END TOR. GIVEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL FORCING...CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW WITH REGARD TO
WHETHER OR NOT SUCH A THREAT WILL EVEN MATERIALIZE.

TONIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FORWARD PROGRESS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS STRONG
DPVA /HEIGHT FALLS/ ATTENDANT AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND STRONG DEEP-
LAYER FORCING...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...
PREDOMINATELY OF THE ANAFRONTAL /ELEVATED/ VARIETY...THOUGH A NARROW
LINE OF LOW-TOPPED SFC-BASED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
FRONT EAST OF HWY 1. LOW TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON A COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION AND PRECIP /EVAP COOLING/...FALLING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S
TO THE LOWER/MID 40S FROM WNW TO ESE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST (I.E. FAY/CTZ/GSB) WHERE THE WARM SECTOR COULD PERSIST
INTACT THROUGH 12Z AND TEMPS WOULD HOVER AT OR NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY: EXPECT LINGERING ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT /WARM ADVECTION/
PERSISTS ATOP A DEVELOPING POST-FRONTAL CAD WEDGE...IN ADVANCE OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH RAIN PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ESP
EAST OF HWY 1. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED THE LOW/MID
40S...EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY BREAK
SEVERAL HRS PRIOR TO SUNSET AND A WARM-UP INTO THE UPPER 40S /NEAR
50F/ WOULD BE POSSIBLE. -VINCENT

THE UPPER TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS VORT MAX ROTATES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE WANE AFTER
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT STRONG OMEGA AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE. AS
AN ADDED BONUS...THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE DOES BECOME SATURATED AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA FALL INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS SOME
LOWER 30S. WILL OPTIMISTICALLY ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN CWFA AS POPS ARE TAILING OFF IN THE
PREDAWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THICKNESSES
SUPPORTING PERSISTENT MOS GUIDANCE OF UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON
SATURDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL RADIATE NICELY SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND MINS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
20S...WITH SOME MID 20S IN OUTLYING AREAS. RISING HEIGHTS AND RETURN
FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW RECOVERY TO COMMENCE ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.

A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS FLOW REMAINS
PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY...WHICH WILL ALSO PREVENT THE FRONTS
REINFORCING THE COLD AIRMASS SIGNIFICANTLY. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S...WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND
HIGHS A TOUCH WARMER WITH MORE SUN...MID TO UPPER 60S.

FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER MAKER IN THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
INCREASING INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER...AND WILL INCREASE POPS
INCREMENTALLY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED WARMING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION AND A BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS...BECOMING
SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT. IMPROVED CONDITIONS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KT (GUSTS TO
20 KT) ALONG WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 06-12Z FRI...WITH ONLY MARGINAL
IMPROVEMENT TO IFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: IFR CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM WEST-EAST LATE FRI/FRI EVENING...AND VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
FOR A PERIOD. HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE
REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER 06Z SAT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 260759
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
359 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...

TODAY: LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION VIA A 30-KT SOUTHERLY LLJ
BENEATH THE MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING IS RESULTING IN NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH MUCAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG (MUCAPE) OVER CENTRAL NC. GIVEN
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SFC
CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SEPARATING THE
WARM SECTOR (EAST) FROM RESIDUAL CAD WEDGE (WEST) NEAR THE HWY 1
CORRIDOR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH ACTIVITY
SHIFTING INTO EAST/NE PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MID/LATE MORNING AS
WARM ADVECTION SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM AND FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST...
ADVECTING A DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS...IN
ADDITION TO DEEPER VERTICAL MIXING (IN COMPARISON TO PRIOR DAYS) AND
THE PRESENCE OF A MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (7.0-7.5 C/KM H7-H5
LR) WILL RESULT IN A CAPPED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY WEAK DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND ~50 J/KG OF CIN DURING PEAK
HEATING. ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROGUE SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE
IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ALOFT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OTHERWISE
BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL INDICATE A
DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A LOW-TOPPED SHOWER IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S...LOWER/MID 70S NW PIEDMONT AND UPPER
70S ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1.

SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING: A VERY LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD
SVR STORM WILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09-15Z AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES FROM THE WEST IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WARMING/MOISTENING BENEATH THE
MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN PLACE. THOUGH CONVECTION WOULD
LARGELY BE ELEVATED WEST OF HWY 1...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME SFC-BASED AS IT PROPAGATES/RE-DEVELOPS EASTWARD
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN ALONG THE NOSE OF THE SOUTHERLY LLJ. HAZARDS
WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD INCLUDE SEVERE
WIND...HAIL...OR A BRIEF LOW-END TOR. GIVEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL FORCING...CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW WITH REGARD TO
WHETHER OR NOT SUCH A THREAT WILL EVEN MATERIALIZE.

TONIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FORWARD PROGRESS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS STRONG
DPVA /HEIGHT FALLS/ ATTENDANT AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND STRONG DEEP-
LAYER FORCING...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...
PREDOMINATELY OF THE ANAFRONTAL /ELEVATED/ VARIETY...THOUGH A NARROW
LINE OF LOW-TOPPED SFC-BASED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
FRONT EAST OF HWY 1. LOW TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON A COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION AND PRECIP /EVAP COOLING/...FALLING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S
TO THE LOWER/MID 40S FROM WNW TO ESE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST (I.E. FAY/CTZ/GSB) WHERE THE WARM SECTOR COULD PERSIST
INTACT THROUGH 12Z AND TEMPS WOULD HOVER AT OR NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY: EXPECT LINGERING ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT /WARM ADVECTION/
PERSISTS ATOP A DEVELOPING POST-FRONTAL CAD WEDGE...IN ADVANCE OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH RAIN PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ESP
EAST OF HWY 1. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED THE LOW/MID
40S...EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY BREAK
SEVERAL HRS PRIOR TO SUNSET AND A WARM-UP INTO THE UPPER 40S /NEAR
50F/ WOULD BE POSSIBLE. -VINCENT

THE UPPER TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS VORT MAX ROTATES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE WANE AFTER
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT STRONG OMEGA AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE. AS
AN ADDED BONUS...THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE DOES BECOME SATURATED AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA FALL INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS SOME
LOWER 30S. WILL OPTIMISTICALLY ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN CWFA AS POPS ARE TAILING OFF IN THE
PREDAWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THICKNESSES
SUPPORTING PERSISTENT MOS GUIDANCE OF UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON
SATURDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL RADIATE NICELY SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND MINS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
20S...WITH SOME MID 20S IN OUTLYING AREAS. RISING HEIGHTS AND RETURN
FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW RECOVERY TO COMMENCE ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.

A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS FLOW REMAINS
PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY...WHICH WILL ALSO PREVENT THE FRONTS
REINFORCING THE COLD AIRMASS SIGNIFICANTLY. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S...WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND
HIGHS A TOUCH WARMER WITH MORE SUN...MID TO UPPER 60S.

FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER MAKER IN THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
INCREASING INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER...AND WILL INCREASE POPS
INCREMENTALLY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED WARMING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION AND A BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS...BECOMING
SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT. IMPROVED CONDITIONS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KT (GUSTS TO
20 KT) ALONG WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 06-12Z FRI...WITH ONLY MARGINAL
IMPROVEMENT TO IFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: IFR CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM WEST-EAST LATE FRI/FRI EVENING...AND VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
FOR A PERIOD. HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE
REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER 06Z SAT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 260759
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
359 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...

TODAY: LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION VIA A 30-KT SOUTHERLY LLJ
BENEATH THE MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING IS RESULTING IN NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH MUCAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG (MUCAPE) OVER CENTRAL NC. GIVEN
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SFC
CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SEPARATING THE
WARM SECTOR (EAST) FROM RESIDUAL CAD WEDGE (WEST) NEAR THE HWY 1
CORRIDOR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH ACTIVITY
SHIFTING INTO EAST/NE PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MID/LATE MORNING AS
WARM ADVECTION SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM AND FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST...
ADVECTING A DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS...IN
ADDITION TO DEEPER VERTICAL MIXING (IN COMPARISON TO PRIOR DAYS) AND
THE PRESENCE OF A MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (7.0-7.5 C/KM H7-H5
LR) WILL RESULT IN A CAPPED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY WEAK DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND ~50 J/KG OF CIN DURING PEAK
HEATING. ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROGUE SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE
IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ALOFT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OTHERWISE
BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL INDICATE A
DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A LOW-TOPPED SHOWER IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S...LOWER/MID 70S NW PIEDMONT AND UPPER
70S ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1.

SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING: A VERY LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD
SVR STORM WILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09-15Z AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES FROM THE WEST IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WARMING/MOISTENING BENEATH THE
MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN PLACE. THOUGH CONVECTION WOULD
LARGELY BE ELEVATED WEST OF HWY 1...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME SFC-BASED AS IT PROPAGATES/RE-DEVELOPS EASTWARD
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN ALONG THE NOSE OF THE SOUTHERLY LLJ. HAZARDS
WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD INCLUDE SEVERE
WIND...HAIL...OR A BRIEF LOW-END TOR. GIVEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL FORCING...CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW WITH REGARD TO
WHETHER OR NOT SUCH A THREAT WILL EVEN MATERIALIZE.

TONIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FORWARD PROGRESS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS STRONG
DPVA /HEIGHT FALLS/ ATTENDANT AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND STRONG DEEP-
LAYER FORCING...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...
PREDOMINATELY OF THE ANAFRONTAL /ELEVATED/ VARIETY...THOUGH A NARROW
LINE OF LOW-TOPPED SFC-BASED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
FRONT EAST OF HWY 1. LOW TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON A COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION AND PRECIP /EVAP COOLING/...FALLING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S
TO THE LOWER/MID 40S FROM WNW TO ESE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST (I.E. FAY/CTZ/GSB) WHERE THE WARM SECTOR COULD PERSIST
INTACT THROUGH 12Z AND TEMPS WOULD HOVER AT OR NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY: EXPECT LINGERING ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT /WARM ADVECTION/
PERSISTS ATOP A DEVELOPING POST-FRONTAL CAD WEDGE...IN ADVANCE OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH RAIN PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ESP
EAST OF HWY 1. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED THE LOW/MID
40S...EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY BREAK
SEVERAL HRS PRIOR TO SUNSET AND A WARM-UP INTO THE UPPER 40S /NEAR
50F/ WOULD BE POSSIBLE. -VINCENT

THE UPPER TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS VORT MAX ROTATES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE WANE AFTER
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT STRONG OMEGA AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ARE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE. AS
AN ADDED BONUS...THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE DOES BECOME SATURATED AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA FALL INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS SOME
LOWER 30S. WILL OPTIMISTICALLY ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN CWFA AS POPS ARE TAILING OFF IN THE
PREDAWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THICKNESSES
SUPPORTING PERSISTENT MOS GUIDANCE OF UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON
SATURDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL RADIATE NICELY SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND MINS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
20S...WITH SOME MID 20S IN OUTLYING AREAS. RISING HEIGHTS AND RETURN
FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW RECOVERY TO COMMENCE ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.

A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS FLOW REMAINS
PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY...WHICH WILL ALSO PREVENT THE FRONTS
REINFORCING THE COLD AIRMASS SIGNIFICANTLY. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S...WITH DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND
HIGHS A TOUCH WARMER WITH MORE SUN...MID TO UPPER 60S.

FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER MAKER IN THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
INCREASING INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER...AND WILL INCREASE POPS
INCREMENTALLY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED WARMING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION AND A BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS...BECOMING
SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT. IMPROVED CONDITIONS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KT (GUSTS TO
20 KT) ALONG WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 06-12Z FRI...WITH ONLY MARGINAL
IMPROVEMENT TO IFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: IFR CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM WEST-EAST LATE FRI/FRI EVENING...AND VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
FOR A PERIOD. HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE
REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER 06Z SAT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 260753
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
353 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...

TODAY: LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION VIA A 30-KT SOUTHERLY LLJ
BENEATH THE MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING IS RESULTING IN NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH MUCAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG (MUCAPE) OVER CENTRAL NC. GIVEN
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SFC
CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SEPARATING THE
WARM SECTOR (EAST) FROM RESIDUAL CAD WEDGE (WEST) NEAR THE HWY 1
CORRIDOR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH ACTIVITY
SHIFTING INTO EAST/NE PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MID/LATE MORNING AS
WARM ADVECTION SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM AND FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST...
ADVECTING A DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS...IN
ADDITION TO DEEPER VERTICAL MIXING (IN COMPARISON TO PRIOR DAYS) AND
THE PRESENCE OF A MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (7.0-7.5 C/KM H7-H5
LR) WILL RESULT IN A CAPPED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY WEAK DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND ~50 J/KG OF CIN DURING PEAK
HEATING. ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROGUE SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE
IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ALOFT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OTHERWISE
BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL INDICATE A
DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A LOW-TOPPED SHOWER IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S...LOWER/MID 70S NW PIEDMONT AND UPPER
70S ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1.

SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING: A VERY LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD
SVR STORM WILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09-15Z AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES FROM THE WEST IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WARMING/MOISTENING BENEATH THE
MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN PLACE. THOUGH CONVECTION WOULD
LARGELY BE ELEVATED WEST OF HWY 1...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME SFC-BASED AS IT PROPAGATES/RE-DEVELOPS EASTWARD
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN ALONG THE NOSE OF THE SOUTHERLY LLJ. HAZARDS
WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD INCLUDE SEVERE
WIND...HAIL...OR A BRIEF LOW-END TOR. GIVEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL FORCING...CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW WITH REGARD TO
WHETHER OR NOT SUCH A THREAT WILL EVEN MATERIALIZE.

TONIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FORWARD PROGRESS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS STRONG
DPVA /HEIGHT FALLS/ ATTENDANT AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND STRONG DEEP-
LAYER FORCING...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...
PREDOMINATELY OF THE ANAFRONTAL /ELEVATED/ VARIETY...THOUGH A NARROW
LINE OF LOW-TOPPED SFC-BASED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
FRONT EAST OF HWY 1. LOW TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON A COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION AND PRECIP /EVAP COOLING/...FALLING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S
TO THE LOWER/MID 40S FROM WNW TO ESE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST (I.E. FAY/CTZ/GSB) WHERE THE WARM SECTOR COULD PERSIST
INTACT THROUGH 12Z AND TEMPS WOULD HOVER AT OR NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY: EXPECT LINGERING ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT /WARM ADVECTION/
PERSISTS ATOP A DEVELOPING POST-FRONTAL CAD WEDGE...IN ADVANCE OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH RAIN PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ESP
EAST OF HWY 1. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED THE LOW/MID
40S...EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY BREAK
SEVERAL HRS PRIOR TO SUNSET AND A WARM-UP INTO THE UPPER 40S /NEAR
50F/ WOULD BE POSSIBLE. -VINCENT

FRIDAY NIGHT: TO BE POSTED SHORTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...

TO BE POSTED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION AND A BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS...BECOMING
SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT. IMPROVED CONDITIONS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KT (GUSTS TO
20 KT) ALONG WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 06-12Z FRI...WITH ONLY MARGINAL
IMPROVEMENT TO IFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: IFR CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM WEST-EAST LATE FRI/FRI EVENING...AND VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
FOR A PERIOD. HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE
REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER 06Z SAT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 260753
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
353 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...

TODAY: LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION VIA A 30-KT SOUTHERLY LLJ
BENEATH THE MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING IS RESULTING IN NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH MUCAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG (MUCAPE) OVER CENTRAL NC. GIVEN
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SFC
CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SEPARATING THE
WARM SECTOR (EAST) FROM RESIDUAL CAD WEDGE (WEST) NEAR THE HWY 1
CORRIDOR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH ACTIVITY
SHIFTING INTO EAST/NE PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MID/LATE MORNING AS
WARM ADVECTION SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM AND FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST...
ADVECTING A DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS...IN
ADDITION TO DEEPER VERTICAL MIXING (IN COMPARISON TO PRIOR DAYS) AND
THE PRESENCE OF A MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (7.0-7.5 C/KM H7-H5
LR) WILL RESULT IN A CAPPED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY WEAK DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND ~50 J/KG OF CIN DURING PEAK
HEATING. ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROGUE SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE
IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ALOFT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OTHERWISE
BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL INDICATE A
DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A LOW-TOPPED SHOWER IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S...LOWER/MID 70S NW PIEDMONT AND UPPER
70S ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1.

SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING: A VERY LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD
SVR STORM WILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09-15Z AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES FROM THE WEST IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WARMING/MOISTENING BENEATH THE
MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN PLACE. THOUGH CONVECTION WOULD
LARGELY BE ELEVATED WEST OF HWY 1...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME SFC-BASED AS IT PROPAGATES/RE-DEVELOPS EASTWARD
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN ALONG THE NOSE OF THE SOUTHERLY LLJ. HAZARDS
WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD INCLUDE SEVERE
WIND...HAIL...OR A BRIEF LOW-END TOR. GIVEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL FORCING...CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW WITH REGARD TO
WHETHER OR NOT SUCH A THREAT WILL EVEN MATERIALIZE.

TONIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FORWARD PROGRESS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS STRONG
DPVA /HEIGHT FALLS/ ATTENDANT AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND STRONG DEEP-
LAYER FORCING...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...
PREDOMINATELY OF THE ANAFRONTAL /ELEVATED/ VARIETY...THOUGH A NARROW
LINE OF LOW-TOPPED SFC-BASED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
FRONT EAST OF HWY 1. LOW TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON A COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION AND PRECIP /EVAP COOLING/...FALLING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S
TO THE LOWER/MID 40S FROM WNW TO ESE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST (I.E. FAY/CTZ/GSB) WHERE THE WARM SECTOR COULD PERSIST
INTACT THROUGH 12Z AND TEMPS WOULD HOVER AT OR NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY: EXPECT LINGERING ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT /WARM ADVECTION/
PERSISTS ATOP A DEVELOPING POST-FRONTAL CAD WEDGE...IN ADVANCE OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH RAIN PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ESP
EAST OF HWY 1. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED THE LOW/MID
40S...EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY BREAK
SEVERAL HRS PRIOR TO SUNSET AND A WARM-UP INTO THE UPPER 40S /NEAR
50F/ WOULD BE POSSIBLE. -VINCENT

FRIDAY NIGHT: TO BE POSTED SHORTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...

TO BE POSTED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION AND A BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS...BECOMING
SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT. IMPROVED CONDITIONS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KT (GUSTS TO
20 KT) ALONG WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 06-12Z FRI...WITH ONLY MARGINAL
IMPROVEMENT TO IFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: IFR CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM WEST-EAST LATE FRI/FRI EVENING...AND VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
FOR A PERIOD. HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE
REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER 06Z SAT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 260753
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
353 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...

TODAY: LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION VIA A 30-KT SOUTHERLY LLJ
BENEATH THE MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING IS RESULTING IN NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH MUCAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG (MUCAPE) OVER CENTRAL NC. GIVEN
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SFC
CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SEPARATING THE
WARM SECTOR (EAST) FROM RESIDUAL CAD WEDGE (WEST) NEAR THE HWY 1
CORRIDOR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH ACTIVITY
SHIFTING INTO EAST/NE PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MID/LATE MORNING AS
WARM ADVECTION SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM AND FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST...
ADVECTING A DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS...IN
ADDITION TO DEEPER VERTICAL MIXING (IN COMPARISON TO PRIOR DAYS) AND
THE PRESENCE OF A MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (7.0-7.5 C/KM H7-H5
LR) WILL RESULT IN A CAPPED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY WEAK DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND ~50 J/KG OF CIN DURING PEAK
HEATING. ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROGUE SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE
IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ALOFT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OTHERWISE
BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL INDICATE A
DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A LOW-TOPPED SHOWER IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S...LOWER/MID 70S NW PIEDMONT AND UPPER
70S ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1.

SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING: A VERY LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD
SVR STORM WILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09-15Z AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR INCREASES FROM THE WEST IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WARMING/MOISTENING BENEATH THE
MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN PLACE. THOUGH CONVECTION WOULD
LARGELY BE ELEVATED WEST OF HWY 1...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME SFC-BASED AS IT PROPAGATES/RE-DEVELOPS EASTWARD
INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN ALONG THE NOSE OF THE SOUTHERLY LLJ. HAZARDS
WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD INCLUDE SEVERE
WIND...HAIL...OR A BRIEF LOW-END TOR. GIVEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LEVEL FORCING...CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW WITH REGARD TO
WHETHER OR NOT SUCH A THREAT WILL EVEN MATERIALIZE.

TONIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FORWARD PROGRESS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS STRONG
DPVA /HEIGHT FALLS/ ATTENDANT AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND STRONG DEEP-
LAYER FORCING...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...
PREDOMINATELY OF THE ANAFRONTAL /ELEVATED/ VARIETY...THOUGH A NARROW
LINE OF LOW-TOPPED SFC-BASED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
FRONT EAST OF HWY 1. LOW TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON A COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION AND PRECIP /EVAP COOLING/...FALLING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S
TO THE LOWER/MID 40S FROM WNW TO ESE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST (I.E. FAY/CTZ/GSB) WHERE THE WARM SECTOR COULD PERSIST
INTACT THROUGH 12Z AND TEMPS WOULD HOVER AT OR NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY: EXPECT LINGERING ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT /WARM ADVECTION/
PERSISTS ATOP A DEVELOPING POST-FRONTAL CAD WEDGE...IN ADVANCE OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH RAIN PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ESP
EAST OF HWY 1. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED THE LOW/MID
40S...EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY BREAK
SEVERAL HRS PRIOR TO SUNSET AND A WARM-UP INTO THE UPPER 40S /NEAR
50F/ WOULD BE POSSIBLE. -VINCENT

FRIDAY NIGHT: TO BE POSTED SHORTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...

TO BE POSTED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION AND A BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS...BECOMING
SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT. IMPROVED CONDITIONS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KT (GUSTS TO
20 KT) ALONG WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 06-12Z FRI...WITH ONLY MARGINAL
IMPROVEMENT TO IFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: IFR CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM WEST-EAST LATE FRI/FRI EVENING...AND VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
FOR A PERIOD. HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE
REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER 06Z SAT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 260743
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
343 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...

TODAY: LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION VIA A 30-KT SOUTHERLY LLJ
BENEATH THE MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING IS RESULTING IN NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH MUCAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG (MUCAPE) OVER CENTRAL NC. GIVEN
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SFC
CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SEPARATING THE
WARM SECTOR (EAST) FROM RESIDUAL CAD WEDGE (WEST) NEAR THE HWY 1
CORRIDOR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH ACTIVITY
SHIFTING INTO EAST/NE PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MID/LATE MORNING AS
WARM ADVECTION SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM AND FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST...
ADVECTING A DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS...IN
ADDITION TO DEEPER VERTICAL MIXING (IN COMPARISON TO PRIOR DAYS) AND
THE PRESENCE OF A MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (7.0-7.5 C/KM H7-H5
LR) WILL RESULT IN A CAPPED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY WEAK DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND ~50 J/KG OF CIN DURING PEAK
HEATING. ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROGUE SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE
IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ALOFT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OTHERWISE
BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL INDICATE A
DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A LOW-TOPPED SHOWER IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S...LOWER/MID 70S NW PIEDMONT AND UPPER
70S ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1.

TONIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FORWARD PROGRESS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS STRONG
DPVA /HEIGHT FALLS/ ATTENDANT AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND STRONG DEEP-
LAYER FORCING...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...
PREDOMINATELY OF THE ANAFRONTAL /ELEVATED/ VARIETY...THOUGH A NARROW
LINE OF LOW-TOPPED SFC-BASED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
FRONT EAST OF HWY 1. LOW TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON A COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION AND PRECIP /EVAP COOLING/...FALLING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S
TO THE LOWER/MID 40S FROM WNW TO ESE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST (I.E. FAY/CTZ/GSB) WHERE THE WARM SECTOR COULD PERSIST
INTACT THROUGH 12Z AND TEMPS WOULD HOVER AT OR NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY: EXPECT LINGERING ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT /WARM ADVECTION/
PERSISTS ATOP A DEVELOPING POST-FRONTAL CAD WEDGE...IN ADVANCE OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH RAIN PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ESP
EAST OF HWY 1. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED THE LOW/MID
40S...EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY BREAK
SEVERAL HRS PRIOR TO SUNSET AND A WARM-UP INTO THE UPPER 40S /NEAR
50F/ WOULD BE POSSIBLE. -VINCENT

FRIDAY NIGHT: TO BE POSTED SHORTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...

TO BE POSTED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION AND A BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS...BECOMING
SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT. IMPROVED CONDITIONS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KT (GUSTS TO
20 KT) ALONG WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 06-12Z FRI...WITH ONLY MARGINAL
IMPROVEMENT TO IFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: IFR CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM WEST-EAST LATE FRI/FRI EVENING...AND VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
FOR A PERIOD. HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE
REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER 06Z SAT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 260743
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
343 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...

TODAY: LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION VIA A 30-KT SOUTHERLY LLJ
BENEATH THE MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING IS RESULTING IN NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH MUCAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG (MUCAPE) OVER CENTRAL NC. GIVEN
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SFC
CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SEPARATING THE
WARM SECTOR (EAST) FROM RESIDUAL CAD WEDGE (WEST) NEAR THE HWY 1
CORRIDOR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH ACTIVITY
SHIFTING INTO EAST/NE PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MID/LATE MORNING AS
WARM ADVECTION SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM AND FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST...
ADVECTING A DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS...IN
ADDITION TO DEEPER VERTICAL MIXING (IN COMPARISON TO PRIOR DAYS) AND
THE PRESENCE OF A MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (7.0-7.5 C/KM H7-H5
LR) WILL RESULT IN A CAPPED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY WEAK DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND ~50 J/KG OF CIN DURING PEAK
HEATING. ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROGUE SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE
IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ALOFT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OTHERWISE
BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL INDICATE A
DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A LOW-TOPPED SHOWER IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
RELATIVELY BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S...LOWER/MID 70S NW PIEDMONT AND UPPER
70S ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1.

TONIGHT: THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FORWARD PROGRESS WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS STRONG
DPVA /HEIGHT FALLS/ ATTENDANT AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND STRONG DEEP-
LAYER FORCING...EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...
PREDOMINATELY OF THE ANAFRONTAL /ELEVATED/ VARIETY...THOUGH A NARROW
LINE OF LOW-TOPPED SFC-BASED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE
FRONT EAST OF HWY 1. LOW TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON A COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION AND PRECIP /EVAP COOLING/...FALLING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S
TO THE LOWER/MID 40S FROM WNW TO ESE AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST (I.E. FAY/CTZ/GSB) WHERE THE WARM SECTOR COULD PERSIST
INTACT THROUGH 12Z AND TEMPS WOULD HOVER AT OR NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY: EXPECT LINGERING ANAFRONTAL PRECIPITATION AND CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT /WARM ADVECTION/
PERSISTS ATOP A DEVELOPING POST-FRONTAL CAD WEDGE...IN ADVANCE OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH RAIN PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ESP
EAST OF HWY 1. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED THE LOW/MID
40S...EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER MAY BREAK
SEVERAL HRS PRIOR TO SUNSET AND A WARM-UP INTO THE UPPER 40S /NEAR
50F/ WOULD BE POSSIBLE. -VINCENT

FRIDAY NIGHT: TO BE POSTED SHORTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...

TO BE POSTED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND PERHAPS VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION AND A BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS...BECOMING
SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT. IMPROVED CONDITIONS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KT (GUSTS TO
20 KT) ALONG WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 06-12Z FRI...WITH ONLY MARGINAL
IMPROVEMENT TO IFR BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: IFR CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END
FROM WEST-EAST LATE FRI/FRI EVENING...AND VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
FOR A PERIOD. HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE
REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER 06Z SAT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 260214
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1014 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL NC
TONIGHT...THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON THU. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS OUR REGION THU
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FRI
AND FRI NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1014 PM WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THE INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO CONTINUE ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION...MAINLY OVER THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...
INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND CONVECTIVE RAINFALL CHANCES. STILL EXPECT
THE SOUTHERLY LLJ TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS OVERNIGHT...DESCENT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND GRADUALLY INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER. STILL ANTICIPATE LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR STEADY...GENERALLY MID 50S NW TO MID 60S
SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM WEDNESDAY...

THURSDAY: OWING TO THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT INTO THE
AREA...NOW DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...ONCE CONVECTION EXITS
THE COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY MORNING...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER AS WELL. AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOWS TO VEER AROUND A MORE SWLY COMPONENT...DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW WHICH WILL HELP TO SCOUR LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS/MOISTURE AND YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 70S
ACROSS THE AREA...APPROACHING NEAR 80 ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES.

THURSDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 03 TO 12Z THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF
THUNDER LOOKS LOW APPEARS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING AND LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT AS THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...BOTH THE
GFS AND EC INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES IN ADVANCE
OF THE MAIN TROUGH THAT COULD ENHANCE FORCING BETWEEN 00 TO 06Z
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LINGERING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.0 DEG/KM ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
DUE TO WANING INSTABILITY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
ANAFRONTAL PRECIP WILL THEN FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
ENSUING STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA. LOWS RANGING FROM UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
NW TO NEAR 60S ACROSS THE SE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM WEDNESDAY...


THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND PRIMARY AREA OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE JUST EAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY....WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
LAGS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.  IN
BETWEEN...LINGERING MOISTURE AND CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ADDITIONAL ANAFRONTAL PRECIP THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE RESPECTABLE DRYING ALOFT MOVES IN FROM WEST
TO EAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST AS TEMPS SHOULD INITIALLY BE
FALLING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST WARMING OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON IF CLOUDS CAN BREAK WITH
THE DRYING ALOFT.  USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE GENERALLY YIELDS LOW TO
MID 50S.

THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED VORT CENTER WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 40S AND INTO THE UPPER
30S...GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW  A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG OMEGA
AND SUFFICIENT RESATURATION OF THE ICE-NUCLEATION ZONE FOR SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT....FOCUSED MAINLY EAST OF THE TRIANGLE.  SREF
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WIDE VARIETY OF PROFILES AND THE ECMWF DOESNT HAVE
MOISTURE QUITE A DEEP OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH A RELATIVELY
SHALLOW ABOVE FREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...ABOUT 2500 FT PER
GFS SOUNDINGS...ITS POSSIBLE THAT RAIN SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH SOME
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT IN MOISTURE PROFILES BEFORE INCLUDING ANY MENTION IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S WEST TO UPPER 30S EAST.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
ON SATURDAY AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 1270 TO
1280M RANGE.  THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS...SO ONLY THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF DECOUPLING BY SUNDAY MORNING.  THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT
SUB-FREEZING LOWS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND EVEN MID 20S GIVEN
MULTIPLE HOURS OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN COMMENCE SUNDAY ONWARD AS HEIGHT BEGIN TO
BUILD ALOFT AGAIN AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.  TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF FO
THE WEEK.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...THOUGH WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND ONLY A BRIEF COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE PRESENCE OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT BETWEEN GSO AND RDU WILL
RESULT IN POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID-
MORNING TO MIDDAY THU. INITIALLY MVFR-VFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING WILL
STEADILY LOWER INTO LIFR-IFR RANGE BY THU MORNING...WITH THE
RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY AND LONGEST DURATION OF OCCURRENCE WEST
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT - AT INT/GSO...WHILE CONDITIONS IN THE WARM
SECTOR/EASTERN TAF SITES MAY EXPERIENCE MORE TRANSIENT SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS...OR REMAIN VFR ALTOGETHER. AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE LOW STRATUS; AND SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BECOME
DENSE...PARTICULARLY AT INT AND GSO LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND A SURGE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM OFF THE SW ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL ALSO CAUSE AN
AXIS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER CENTRAL NC TONIGHT -CENTERED NEAR RDU-
BEFORE SHIFTING NE INTO EASTERN NC AND SE VA EARLY THU. OTHERWISE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT (FAY)...NORTH TO ENE
ONES TO THE WEST OF IT (INT/GSO)...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONES NEAR
IT (RDU/RWI). SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE THE LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO MIX OUT ON THU...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY BY AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES...THOUGH WITH A THREAT OF SOME
LINGERING SUB-VFR CEILINGS AT INT/GSO WHERE LOW OVERCAST
CLIMATOLOGICALLY LINGERS LONGEST.

OUTLOOK: THE RETURN TO VFR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...OWING TO THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING NARROW BAND OF SHALLOW
CONVECTION WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS THU NIGHT...AND FOLLOWING IFR-MVFR
CEILINGS AND TRAILING (ANAFRONTAL) RAIN THAT WILL AFFECT CENTRAL NC
THROUGH MUCH OF FRI.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 260214
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1014 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL NC
TONIGHT...THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON THU. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS OUR REGION THU
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FRI
AND FRI NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1014 PM WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THE INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO CONTINUE ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION...MAINLY OVER THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...
INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND CONVECTIVE RAINFALL CHANCES. STILL EXPECT
THE SOUTHERLY LLJ TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS OVERNIGHT...DESCENT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND GRADUALLY INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER. STILL ANTICIPATE LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR STEADY...GENERALLY MID 50S NW TO MID 60S
SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM WEDNESDAY...

THURSDAY: OWING TO THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT INTO THE
AREA...NOW DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...ONCE CONVECTION EXITS
THE COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY MORNING...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER AS WELL. AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOWS TO VEER AROUND A MORE SWLY COMPONENT...DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW WHICH WILL HELP TO SCOUR LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS/MOISTURE AND YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 70S
ACROSS THE AREA...APPROACHING NEAR 80 ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES.

THURSDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 03 TO 12Z THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF
THUNDER LOOKS LOW APPEARS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING AND LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT AS THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...BOTH THE
GFS AND EC INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES IN ADVANCE
OF THE MAIN TROUGH THAT COULD ENHANCE FORCING BETWEEN 00 TO 06Z
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LINGERING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.0 DEG/KM ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
DUE TO WANING INSTABILITY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
ANAFRONTAL PRECIP WILL THEN FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
ENSUING STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA. LOWS RANGING FROM UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
NW TO NEAR 60S ACROSS THE SE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM WEDNESDAY...


THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND PRIMARY AREA OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE JUST EAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY....WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
LAGS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.  IN
BETWEEN...LINGERING MOISTURE AND CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ADDITIONAL ANAFRONTAL PRECIP THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE RESPECTABLE DRYING ALOFT MOVES IN FROM WEST
TO EAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST AS TEMPS SHOULD INITIALLY BE
FALLING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST WARMING OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON IF CLOUDS CAN BREAK WITH
THE DRYING ALOFT.  USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE GENERALLY YIELDS LOW TO
MID 50S.

THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED VORT CENTER WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 40S AND INTO THE UPPER
30S...GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW  A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG OMEGA
AND SUFFICIENT RESATURATION OF THE ICE-NUCLEATION ZONE FOR SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT....FOCUSED MAINLY EAST OF THE TRIANGLE.  SREF
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WIDE VARIETY OF PROFILES AND THE ECMWF DOESNT HAVE
MOISTURE QUITE A DEEP OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH A RELATIVELY
SHALLOW ABOVE FREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...ABOUT 2500 FT PER
GFS SOUNDINGS...ITS POSSIBLE THAT RAIN SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH SOME
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT IN MOISTURE PROFILES BEFORE INCLUDING ANY MENTION IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S WEST TO UPPER 30S EAST.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
ON SATURDAY AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 1270 TO
1280M RANGE.  THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS...SO ONLY THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF DECOUPLING BY SUNDAY MORNING.  THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT
SUB-FREEZING LOWS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND EVEN MID 20S GIVEN
MULTIPLE HOURS OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN COMMENCE SUNDAY ONWARD AS HEIGHT BEGIN TO
BUILD ALOFT AGAIN AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.  TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF FO
THE WEEK.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...THOUGH WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND ONLY A BRIEF COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE PRESENCE OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT BETWEEN GSO AND RDU WILL
RESULT IN POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID-
MORNING TO MIDDAY THU. INITIALLY MVFR-VFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING WILL
STEADILY LOWER INTO LIFR-IFR RANGE BY THU MORNING...WITH THE
RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY AND LONGEST DURATION OF OCCURRENCE WEST
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT - AT INT/GSO...WHILE CONDITIONS IN THE WARM
SECTOR/EASTERN TAF SITES MAY EXPERIENCE MORE TRANSIENT SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS...OR REMAIN VFR ALTOGETHER. AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE LOW STRATUS; AND SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BECOME
DENSE...PARTICULARLY AT INT AND GSO LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND A SURGE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM OFF THE SW ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL ALSO CAUSE AN
AXIS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER CENTRAL NC TONIGHT -CENTERED NEAR RDU-
BEFORE SHIFTING NE INTO EASTERN NC AND SE VA EARLY THU. OTHERWISE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT (FAY)...NORTH TO ENE
ONES TO THE WEST OF IT (INT/GSO)...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONES NEAR
IT (RDU/RWI). SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE THE LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO MIX OUT ON THU...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY BY AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES...THOUGH WITH A THREAT OF SOME
LINGERING SUB-VFR CEILINGS AT INT/GSO WHERE LOW OVERCAST
CLIMATOLOGICALLY LINGERS LONGEST.

OUTLOOK: THE RETURN TO VFR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...OWING TO THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING NARROW BAND OF SHALLOW
CONVECTION WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS THU NIGHT...AND FOLLOWING IFR-MVFR
CEILINGS AND TRAILING (ANAFRONTAL) RAIN THAT WILL AFFECT CENTRAL NC
THROUGH MUCH OF FRI.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 260059
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
859 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL NC
TONIGHT...THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON THU. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS OUR REGION THU
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FRI
AND FRI NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM WEDNESDAY...

STRONG INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITHIN A STRENGTHENING H9 35-40KT
SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT... SUPPORTING
SCATTER TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
AS AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS(MUCAPE(400-600 J/KG)OWING TO STEEP
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA. AS FAR AS SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WHILE FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35KTS COULD SUPPORT
SOME ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER CELLS...THE ABSENCE OF FORCING
OUTSIDE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA COUPLED WITH SHALLOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE WILL
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.

EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE LINGERING CAD WEDGE IN
PLACE IN THE TRIAD...PERHAPS RISING A FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM WEDNESDAY...

THURSDAY: OWING TO THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT INTO THE
AREA...NOW DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...ONCE CONVECTION EXITS
THE COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY MORNING...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER AS WELL. AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOWS TO VEER AROUND A MORE SWLY COMPONENT...DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW WHICH WILL HELP TO SCOUR LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS/MOISTURE AND YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 70S
ACROSS THE AREA...APPROACHING NEAR 80 ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES.

THURSDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 03 TO 12Z THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF
THUNDER LOOKS LOW APPEARS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING AND LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT AS THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...BOTH THE
GFS AND EC INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES IN ADVANCE
OF THE MAIN TROUGH THAT COULD ENHANCE FORCING BETWEEN 00 TO 06Z
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LINGERING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.0 DEG/KM ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
DUE TO WANING INSTABILITY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
ANAFRONTAL PRECIP WILL THEN FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
ENSUING STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA. LOWS RANGING FROM UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
NW TO NEAR 60S ACROSS THE SE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM WEDNESDAY...


THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND PRIMARY AREA OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE JUST EAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY....WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
LAGS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.  IN
BETWEEN...LINGERING MOISTURE AND CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ADDITIONAL ANAFRONTAL PRECIP THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE RESPECTABLE DRYING ALOFT MOVES IN FROM WEST
TO EAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST AS TEMPS SHOULD INITIALLY BE
FALLING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST WARMING OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON IF CLOUDS CAN BREAK WITH
THE DRYING ALOFT.  USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE GENERALLY YIELDS LOW TO
MID 50S.

THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED VORT CENTER WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 40S AND INTO THE UPPER
30S...GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW  A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG OMEGA
AND SUFFICIENT RESATURATION OF THE ICE-NUCLEATION ZONE FOR SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT....FOCUSED MAINLY EAST OF THE TRIANGLE.  SREF
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WIDE VARIETY OF PROFILES AND THE ECMWF DOESNT HAVE
MOISTURE QUITE A DEEP OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH A RELATIVELY
SHALLOW ABOVE FREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...ABOUT 2500 FT PER
GFS SOUNDINGS...ITS POSSIBLE THAT RAIN SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH SOME
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT IN MOISTURE PROFILES BEFORE INCLUDING ANY MENTION IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S WEST TO UPPER 30S EAST.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
ON SATURDAY AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 1270 TO
1280M RANGE.  THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS...SO ONLY THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF DECOUPLING BY SUNDAY MORNING.  THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT
SUB-FREEZING LOWS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND EVEN MID 20S GIVEN
MULTIPLE HOURS OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN COMMENCE SUNDAY ONWARD AS HEIGHT BEGIN TO
BUILD ALOFT AGAIN AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.  TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF FO
THE WEEK.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...THOUGH WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND ONLY A BRIEF COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE PRESENCE OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT BETWEEN GSO AND RDU WILL
RESULT IN POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID-
MORNING TO MIDDAY THU. INITIALLY MVFR-VFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING WILL
STEADILY LOWER INTO LIFR-IFR RANGE BY THU MORNING...WITH THE
RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY AND LONGEST DURATION OF OCCURRENCE WEST
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT - AT INT/GSO...WHILE CONDITIONS IN THE WARM
SECTOR/EASTERN TAF SITES MAY EXPERIENCE MORE TRANSIENT SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS...OR REMAIN VFR ALTOGETHER. AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE LOW STRATUS; AND SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BECOME
DENSE...PARTICULARLY AT INT AND GSO LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND A SURGE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM OFF THE SW ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL ALSO CAUSE AN
AXIS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER CENTRAL NC TONIGHT -CENTERED NEAR RDU-
BEFORE SHIFTING NE INTO EASTERN NC AND SE VA EARLY THU. OTHERWISE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT (FAY)...NORTH TO ENE
ONES TO THE WEST OF IT (INT/GSO)...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONES NEAR
IT (RDU/RWI). SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE THE LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO MIX OUT ON THU...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY BY AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES...THOUGH WITH A THREAT OF SOME
LINGERING SUB-VFR CEILINGS AT INT/GSO WHERE LOW OVERCAST
CLIMATOLOGICALLY LINGERS LONGEST.

OUTLOOK: THE RETURN TO VFR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...OWING TO THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING NARROW BAND OF SHALLOW
CONVECTION WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS THU NIGHT...AND FOLLOWING IFR-MVFR
CEILINGS AND TRAILING (ANAFRONTAL) RAIN THAT WILL AFFECT CENTRAL NC
THROUGH MUCH OF FRI.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 260059
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
859 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL NC
TONIGHT...THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON THU. MEANWHILE...A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND CROSS OUR REGION THU
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FRI
AND FRI NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM WEDNESDAY...

STRONG INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITHIN A STRENGTHENING H9 35-40KT
SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT... SUPPORTING
SCATTER TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
AS AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS(MUCAPE(400-600 J/KG)OWING TO STEEP
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA. AS FAR AS SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WHILE FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35KTS COULD SUPPORT
SOME ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER CELLS...THE ABSENCE OF FORCING
OUTSIDE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA COUPLED WITH SHALLOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE WILL
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.

EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE LINGERING CAD WEDGE IN
PLACE IN THE TRIAD...PERHAPS RISING A FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM WEDNESDAY...

THURSDAY: OWING TO THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT INTO THE
AREA...NOW DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...ONCE CONVECTION EXITS
THE COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY MORNING...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER AS WELL. AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOWS TO VEER AROUND A MORE SWLY COMPONENT...DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW WHICH WILL HELP TO SCOUR LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS/MOISTURE AND YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 70S
ACROSS THE AREA...APPROACHING NEAR 80 ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES.

THURSDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 03 TO 12Z THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF
THUNDER LOOKS LOW APPEARS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING AND LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT AS THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...BOTH THE
GFS AND EC INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES IN ADVANCE
OF THE MAIN TROUGH THAT COULD ENHANCE FORCING BETWEEN 00 TO 06Z
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LINGERING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.0 DEG/KM ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
DUE TO WANING INSTABILITY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
ANAFRONTAL PRECIP WILL THEN FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
ENSUING STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA. LOWS RANGING FROM UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
NW TO NEAR 60S ACROSS THE SE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM WEDNESDAY...


THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND PRIMARY AREA OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE JUST EAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY....WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
LAGS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.  IN
BETWEEN...LINGERING MOISTURE AND CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ADDITIONAL ANAFRONTAL PRECIP THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE RESPECTABLE DRYING ALOFT MOVES IN FROM WEST
TO EAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST AS TEMPS SHOULD INITIALLY BE
FALLING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST WARMING OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON IF CLOUDS CAN BREAK WITH
THE DRYING ALOFT.  USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE GENERALLY YIELDS LOW TO
MID 50S.

THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED VORT CENTER WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 40S AND INTO THE UPPER
30S...GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW  A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG OMEGA
AND SUFFICIENT RESATURATION OF THE ICE-NUCLEATION ZONE FOR SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT....FOCUSED MAINLY EAST OF THE TRIANGLE.  SREF
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WIDE VARIETY OF PROFILES AND THE ECMWF DOESNT HAVE
MOISTURE QUITE A DEEP OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH A RELATIVELY
SHALLOW ABOVE FREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...ABOUT 2500 FT PER
GFS SOUNDINGS...ITS POSSIBLE THAT RAIN SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH SOME
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT IN MOISTURE PROFILES BEFORE INCLUDING ANY MENTION IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S WEST TO UPPER 30S EAST.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
ON SATURDAY AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 1270 TO
1280M RANGE.  THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS...SO ONLY THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF DECOUPLING BY SUNDAY MORNING.  THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT
SUB-FREEZING LOWS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND EVEN MID 20S GIVEN
MULTIPLE HOURS OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN COMMENCE SUNDAY ONWARD AS HEIGHT BEGIN TO
BUILD ALOFT AGAIN AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.  TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF FO
THE WEEK.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...THOUGH WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND ONLY A BRIEF COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE PRESENCE OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT BETWEEN GSO AND RDU WILL
RESULT IN POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID-
MORNING TO MIDDAY THU. INITIALLY MVFR-VFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING WILL
STEADILY LOWER INTO LIFR-IFR RANGE BY THU MORNING...WITH THE
RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY AND LONGEST DURATION OF OCCURRENCE WEST
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT - AT INT/GSO...WHILE CONDITIONS IN THE WARM
SECTOR/EASTERN TAF SITES MAY EXPERIENCE MORE TRANSIENT SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS...OR REMAIN VFR ALTOGETHER. AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE LOW STRATUS; AND SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BECOME
DENSE...PARTICULARLY AT INT AND GSO LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND A SURGE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM OFF THE SW ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL ALSO CAUSE AN
AXIS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER CENTRAL NC TONIGHT -CENTERED NEAR RDU-
BEFORE SHIFTING NE INTO EASTERN NC AND SE VA EARLY THU. OTHERWISE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT (FAY)...NORTH TO ENE
ONES TO THE WEST OF IT (INT/GSO)...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONES NEAR
IT (RDU/RWI). SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE THE LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO MIX OUT ON THU...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY BY AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES...THOUGH WITH A THREAT OF SOME
LINGERING SUB-VFR CEILINGS AT INT/GSO WHERE LOW OVERCAST
CLIMATOLOGICALLY LINGERS LONGEST.

OUTLOOK: THE RETURN TO VFR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...OWING TO THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING NARROW BAND OF SHALLOW
CONVECTION WITH GUSTY WNW WINDS THU NIGHT...AND FOLLOWING IFR-MVFR
CEILINGS AND TRAILING (ANAFRONTAL) RAIN THAT WILL AFFECT CENTRAL NC
THROUGH MUCH OF FRI.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 251940
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
340 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WILL SHIFT OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND WILL CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM WEDNESDAY...

STRONG INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITHIN A STRENGTHENING H9 35-40KT
SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT... SUPPORTING
SCATTER TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
AS AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS(MUCAPE(400-600 J/KG)OWING TO STEEP
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA. AS FAR AS SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WHILE FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35KTS COULD SUPPORT
SOME ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER CELLS...THE ABSENCE OF FORCING
OUTSIDE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA COUPLED WITH SHALLOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE WILL
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.

EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE LINGERING CAD WEDGE IN
PLACE IN THE TRIAD...PERHAPS RISING A FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM WEDNESDAY...

THURSDAY: OWING TO THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT INTO THE
AREA...NOW DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...ONCE CONVECTION EXITS
THE COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY MORNING...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER AS WELL. AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOWS TO VEER AROUND A MORE SWLY COMPONENT...DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW WHICH WILL HELP TO SCOUR LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS/MOISTURE AND YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 70S
ACROSS THE AREA...APPROACHING NEAR 80 ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES.

THURSDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 03 TO 12Z THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF
THUNDER LOOKS LOW APPEARS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING AND LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT AS THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...BOTH THE
GFS AND EC INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES IN ADVANCE
OF THE MAIN TROUGH THAT COULD ENHANCE FORCING BETWEEN 00 TO 06Z
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LINGERING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.0 DEG/KM ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
DUE TO WANING INSTABILITY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
ANAFRONTAL PRECIP WILL THEN FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
ENSUING STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA. LOWS RANGING FROM UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
NW TO NEAR 60S ACROSS THE SE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM WEDNESDAY...


THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND PRIMARY AREA OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE JUST EAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY....WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
LAGS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.  IN
BETWEEN...LINGERING MOISTURE AND CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ADDITIONAL ANAFROTNAL PRECIP THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE RESPECTABLE DRYING ALOFT MOVES IN FROM WEST
TO EAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST AS TEMPS SHOULD INITIALLY BE
FALLING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST WARMING OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON IF CLOUDS CAN BREAK WITH
THE DRYING ALOFT.  USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE GENERALLY YIELDS LOW TO
MID 50S.

THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED VORT CENTER WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 40S AND INTO THE UPPER
30S...GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW  A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG OMEGA
AND SUFFICIENT RESATURATION OF THE ICE-NUCLEATION ZONE FOR SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT....FOCUSED MAINLY EAST OF THE TRIANGLE.  SREF
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WIDE VARIETY OF PROFILES AND THE ECMWF DOESNT HAVE
MOISTURE QUITE A DEEP OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH A RELATIVELY
SHALLOW ABOVE FREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...ABOUT 2500 FT PER
GFS SOUNDINGS...ITS POSSIBLE THAT RAIN SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH SOME
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT IN MOISTURE PROFILES BEFORE INCLUDING ANY MENTION IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S WEST TO UPPER 30S EAST.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
ON SATURDAY AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 1270 TO
1280M RANGE.  THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS...SO ONLY THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF DECOUPLING BY SUNDAY MORNING.  THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT
SUB-FREEZING LOWS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND EVEN MID 20S GIVEN
MULTIPLE HOURS OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN COMMENCE SUNDAY ONWARD AS HEIGHT BEGIN TO
BUILD ALOFT AGAIN AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.  TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF FO
THE WEEK.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...THOUGH WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND ONLY A BRIEF COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: AMIDST WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP A
SHALLOW COOL DRY SFC AIRMASS...KINT AND KGSO WILL MAINTAIN MVFR
CEILINGS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AT RWI/FAY...CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR 5000-9000 FT
AGL) AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
SADDLED IN BETWEEN...RDU WILL BE ON THE THRESHOLD OF HIGH-END
MVFR/LOW END VFR WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY 2500-3500 KFT.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STRONG WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION WITHIN A A
STRENGTHENING 35-40KT 925MB LOW-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...KINT AND KGSO MAY EXPERIENCE LLWS BETWEEN 03
TO 12Z AS CAD WEDGE MAY HOLD IN PLACE. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY LLWS AT
THIS TIME...BUT LLWS MAY BE ADDED WITH THE EVENING(00Z)PACKAGE.

CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AS AS A WARM SECTOR BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AND DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BREEZY SWLY WINDS OF 20 TO
25KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.



LOOKING AHEAD: A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT PRECIP
WILL BE MOSTLY ANA-FRONTAL WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS RETURNING EARLY FRI MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE DAY AT EASTERN TERMINALS. THE RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE TEMPORARILY DELAYED UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251940
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
340 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WILL SHIFT OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND WILL CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM WEDNESDAY...

STRONG INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITHIN A STRENGTHENING H9 35-40KT
SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT... SUPPORTING
SCATTER TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
AS AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS(MUCAPE(400-600 J/KG)OWING TO STEEP
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA. AS FAR AS SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WHILE FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35KTS COULD SUPPORT
SOME ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER CELLS...THE ABSENCE OF FORCING
OUTSIDE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA COUPLED WITH SHALLOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE WILL
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.

EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE LINGERING CAD WEDGE IN
PLACE IN THE TRIAD...PERHAPS RISING A FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM WEDNESDAY...

THURSDAY: OWING TO THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT INTO THE
AREA...NOW DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...ONCE CONVECTION EXITS
THE COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY MORNING...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER AS WELL. AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOWS TO VEER AROUND A MORE SWLY COMPONENT...DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW WHICH WILL HELP TO SCOUR LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS/MOISTURE AND YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 70S
ACROSS THE AREA...APPROACHING NEAR 80 ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES.

THURSDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 03 TO 12Z THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF
THUNDER LOOKS LOW APPEARS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING AND LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT AS THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...BOTH THE
GFS AND EC INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES IN ADVANCE
OF THE MAIN TROUGH THAT COULD ENHANCE FORCING BETWEEN 00 TO 06Z
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LINGERING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.0 DEG/KM ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
DUE TO WANING INSTABILITY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
ANAFRONTAL PRECIP WILL THEN FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
ENSUING STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA. LOWS RANGING FROM UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
NW TO NEAR 60S ACROSS THE SE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM WEDNESDAY...


THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND PRIMARY AREA OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE JUST EAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY....WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
LAGS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.  IN
BETWEEN...LINGERING MOISTURE AND CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ADDITIONAL ANAFROTNAL PRECIP THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE RESPECTABLE DRYING ALOFT MOVES IN FROM WEST
TO EAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST AS TEMPS SHOULD INITIALLY BE
FALLING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST WARMING OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON IF CLOUDS CAN BREAK WITH
THE DRYING ALOFT.  USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE GENERALLY YIELDS LOW TO
MID 50S.

THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED VORT CENTER WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 40S AND INTO THE UPPER
30S...GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW  A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG OMEGA
AND SUFFICIENT RESATURATION OF THE ICE-NUCLEATION ZONE FOR SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT....FOCUSED MAINLY EAST OF THE TRIANGLE.  SREF
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WIDE VARIETY OF PROFILES AND THE ECMWF DOESNT HAVE
MOISTURE QUITE A DEEP OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH A RELATIVELY
SHALLOW ABOVE FREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...ABOUT 2500 FT PER
GFS SOUNDINGS...ITS POSSIBLE THAT RAIN SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH SOME
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT IN MOISTURE PROFILES BEFORE INCLUDING ANY MENTION IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S WEST TO UPPER 30S EAST.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
ON SATURDAY AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 1270 TO
1280M RANGE.  THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS...SO ONLY THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF DECOUPLING BY SUNDAY MORNING.  THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT
SUB-FREEZING LOWS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND EVEN MID 20S GIVEN
MULTIPLE HOURS OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN COMMENCE SUNDAY ONWARD AS HEIGHT BEGIN TO
BUILD ALOFT AGAIN AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.  TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF FO
THE WEEK.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...THOUGH WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND ONLY A BRIEF COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: AMIDST WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP A
SHALLOW COOL DRY SFC AIRMASS...KINT AND KGSO WILL MAINTAIN MVFR
CEILINGS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AT RWI/FAY...CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR 5000-9000 FT
AGL) AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
SADDLED IN BETWEEN...RDU WILL BE ON THE THRESHOLD OF HIGH-END
MVFR/LOW END VFR WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY 2500-3500 KFT.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STRONG WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION WITHIN A A
STRENGTHENING 35-40KT 925MB LOW-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...KINT AND KGSO MAY EXPERIENCE LLWS BETWEEN 03
TO 12Z AS CAD WEDGE MAY HOLD IN PLACE. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY LLWS AT
THIS TIME...BUT LLWS MAY BE ADDED WITH THE EVENING(00Z)PACKAGE.

CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AS AS A WARM SECTOR BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AND DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BREEZY SWLY WINDS OF 20 TO
25KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.



LOOKING AHEAD: A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT PRECIP
WILL BE MOSTLY ANA-FRONTAL WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS RETURNING EARLY FRI MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE DAY AT EASTERN TERMINALS. THE RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE TEMPORARILY DELAYED UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 251940
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
340 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WILL SHIFT OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND WILL CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM WEDNESDAY...

STRONG INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITHIN A STRENGTHENING H9 35-40KT
SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT... SUPPORTING
SCATTER TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
AS AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS(MUCAPE(400-600 J/KG)OWING TO STEEP
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA. AS FAR AS SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WHILE FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35KTS COULD SUPPORT
SOME ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER CELLS...THE ABSENCE OF FORCING
OUTSIDE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA COUPLED WITH SHALLOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE WILL
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.

EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE LINGERING CAD WEDGE IN
PLACE IN THE TRIAD...PERHAPS RISING A FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM WEDNESDAY...

THURSDAY: OWING TO THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT INTO THE
AREA...NOW DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...ONCE CONVECTION EXITS
THE COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY MORNING...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER AS WELL. AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOWS TO VEER AROUND A MORE SWLY COMPONENT...DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW WHICH WILL HELP TO SCOUR LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS/MOISTURE AND YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 70S
ACROSS THE AREA...APPROACHING NEAR 80 ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES.

THURSDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 03 TO 12Z THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF
THUNDER LOOKS LOW APPEARS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING AND LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT AS THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...BOTH THE
GFS AND EC INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES IN ADVANCE
OF THE MAIN TROUGH THAT COULD ENHANCE FORCING BETWEEN 00 TO 06Z
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LINGERING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.0 DEG/KM ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
DUE TO WANING INSTABILITY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
ANAFRONTAL PRECIP WILL THEN FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
ENSUING STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA. LOWS RANGING FROM UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
NW TO NEAR 60S ACROSS THE SE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM WEDNESDAY...


THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND PRIMARY AREA OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE JUST EAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY....WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
LAGS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.  IN
BETWEEN...LINGERING MOISTURE AND CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ADDITIONAL ANAFROTNAL PRECIP THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE RESPECTABLE DRYING ALOFT MOVES IN FROM WEST
TO EAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST AS TEMPS SHOULD INITIALLY BE
FALLING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST WARMING OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON IF CLOUDS CAN BREAK WITH
THE DRYING ALOFT.  USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE GENERALLY YIELDS LOW TO
MID 50S.

THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED VORT CENTER WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 40S AND INTO THE UPPER
30S...GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW  A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG OMEGA
AND SUFFICIENT RESATURATION OF THE ICE-NUCLEATION ZONE FOR SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT....FOCUSED MAINLY EAST OF THE TRIANGLE.  SREF
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WIDE VARIETY OF PROFILES AND THE ECMWF DOESNT HAVE
MOISTURE QUITE A DEEP OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH A RELATIVELY
SHALLOW ABOVE FREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...ABOUT 2500 FT PER
GFS SOUNDINGS...ITS POSSIBLE THAT RAIN SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH SOME
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT IN MOISTURE PROFILES BEFORE INCLUDING ANY MENTION IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S WEST TO UPPER 30S EAST.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
ON SATURDAY AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 1270 TO
1280M RANGE.  THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS...SO ONLY THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF DECOUPLING BY SUNDAY MORNING.  THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT
SUB-FREEZING LOWS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND EVEN MID 20S GIVEN
MULTIPLE HOURS OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN COMMENCE SUNDAY ONWARD AS HEIGHT BEGIN TO
BUILD ALOFT AGAIN AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.  TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF FO
THE WEEK.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...THOUGH WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND ONLY A BRIEF COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: AMIDST WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP A
SHALLOW COOL DRY SFC AIRMASS...KINT AND KGSO WILL MAINTAIN MVFR
CEILINGS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AT RWI/FAY...CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR 5000-9000 FT
AGL) AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
SADDLED IN BETWEEN...RDU WILL BE ON THE THRESHOLD OF HIGH-END
MVFR/LOW END VFR WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY 2500-3500 KFT.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STRONG WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION WITHIN A A
STRENGTHENING 35-40KT 925MB LOW-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...KINT AND KGSO MAY EXPERIENCE LLWS BETWEEN 03
TO 12Z AS CAD WEDGE MAY HOLD IN PLACE. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY LLWS AT
THIS TIME...BUT LLWS MAY BE ADDED WITH THE EVENING(00Z)PACKAGE.

CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AS AS A WARM SECTOR BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AND DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BREEZY SWLY WINDS OF 20 TO
25KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.



LOOKING AHEAD: A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT PRECIP
WILL BE MOSTLY ANA-FRONTAL WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS RETURNING EARLY FRI MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE DAY AT EASTERN TERMINALS. THE RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE TEMPORARILY DELAYED UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251940
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
340 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WILL SHIFT OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND WILL CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM WEDNESDAY...

STRONG INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITHIN A STRENGTHENING H9 35-40KT
SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT... SUPPORTING
SCATTER TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
AS AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS(MUCAPE(400-600 J/KG)OWING TO STEEP
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA. AS FAR AS SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WHILE FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35KTS COULD SUPPORT
SOME ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER CELLS...THE ABSENCE OF FORCING
OUTSIDE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA COUPLED WITH SHALLOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE WILL
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.

EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE LINGERING CAD WEDGE IN
PLACE IN THE TRIAD...PERHAPS RISING A FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM WEDNESDAY...

THURSDAY: OWING TO THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT INTO THE
AREA...NOW DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...ONCE CONVECTION EXITS
THE COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY MORNING...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER AS WELL. AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOWS TO VEER AROUND A MORE SWLY COMPONENT...DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW WHICH WILL HELP TO SCOUR LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS/MOISTURE AND YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 70S
ACROSS THE AREA...APPROACHING NEAR 80 ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES.

THURSDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 03 TO 12Z THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF
THUNDER LOOKS LOW APPEARS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING AND LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT AS THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...BOTH THE
GFS AND EC INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES IN ADVANCE
OF THE MAIN TROUGH THAT COULD ENHANCE FORCING BETWEEN 00 TO 06Z
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LINGERING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.0 DEG/KM ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
DUE TO WANING INSTABILITY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
ANAFRONTAL PRECIP WILL THEN FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
ENSUING STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA. LOWS RANGING FROM UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
NW TO NEAR 60S ACROSS THE SE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM WEDNESDAY...


THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND PRIMARY AREA OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE JUST EAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY....WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
LAGS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.  IN
BETWEEN...LINGERING MOISTURE AND CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ADDITIONAL ANAFROTNAL PRECIP THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE RESPECTABLE DRYING ALOFT MOVES IN FROM WEST
TO EAST.  LOW CONFIDENCE TEMP FORECAST AS TEMPS SHOULD INITIALLY BE
FALLING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE STRONGEST WARMING OVER
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON IF CLOUDS CAN BREAK WITH
THE DRYING ALOFT.  USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE GENERALLY YIELDS LOW TO
MID 50S.

THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED VORT CENTER WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 40S AND INTO THE UPPER
30S...GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW  A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG OMEGA
AND SUFFICIENT RESATURATION OF THE ICE-NUCLEATION ZONE FOR SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT....FOCUSED MAINLY EAST OF THE TRIANGLE.  SREF
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WIDE VARIETY OF PROFILES AND THE ECMWF DOESNT HAVE
MOISTURE QUITE A DEEP OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH A RELATIVELY
SHALLOW ABOVE FREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...ABOUT 2500 FT PER
GFS SOUNDINGS...ITS POSSIBLE THAT RAIN SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH SOME
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT IN MOISTURE PROFILES BEFORE INCLUDING ANY MENTION IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S WEST TO UPPER 30S EAST.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
ON SATURDAY AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 1270 TO
1280M RANGE.  THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS...SO ONLY THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF DECOUPLING BY SUNDAY MORNING.  THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT
SUB-FREEZING LOWS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND EVEN MID 20S GIVEN
MULTIPLE HOURS OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

A WARMING TREND WILL THEN COMMENCE SUNDAY ONWARD AS HEIGHT BEGIN TO
BUILD ALOFT AGAIN AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.  TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF FO
THE WEEK.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...THOUGH WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND ONLY A BRIEF COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: AMIDST WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP A
SHALLOW COOL DRY SFC AIRMASS...KINT AND KGSO WILL MAINTAIN MVFR
CEILINGS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AT RWI/FAY...CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR 5000-9000 FT
AGL) AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
SADDLED IN BETWEEN...RDU WILL BE ON THE THRESHOLD OF HIGH-END
MVFR/LOW END VFR WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY 2500-3500 KFT.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STRONG WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION WITHIN A A
STRENGTHENING 35-40KT 925MB LOW-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...KINT AND KGSO MAY EXPERIENCE LLWS BETWEEN 03
TO 12Z AS CAD WEDGE MAY HOLD IN PLACE. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY LLWS AT
THIS TIME...BUT LLWS MAY BE ADDED WITH THE EVENING(00Z)PACKAGE.

CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AS AS A WARM SECTOR BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AND DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BREEZY SWLY WINDS OF 20 TO
25KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.



LOOKING AHEAD: A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT PRECIP
WILL BE MOSTLY ANA-FRONTAL WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS RETURNING EARLY FRI MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE DAY AT EASTERN TERMINALS. THE RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE TEMPORARILY DELAYED UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 251929
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WILL SHIFT OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND WILL CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM WEDNESDAY...

STRONG INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITHIN A STRENGTHENING H9 35-40KT
SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT... SUPPORTING
SCATTER TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
AS AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS(MUCAPE(400-600 J/KG)OWING TO STEEP
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA. AS FAR AS SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WHILE FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35KTS COULD SUPPORT
SOME ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER CELLS...THE ABSENCE OF FORCING
OUTSIDE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA COUPLED WITH SHALLOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE WILL
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.

EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE LINGERING CAD WEDGE IN
PLACE IN THE TRIAD...PERHAPS RISING A FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM WEDNESDAY...

THURSDAY: OWING TO THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT INTO THE
AREA...NOW DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...ONCE CONVECTION EXITS
THE COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY MORNING...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER AS WELL. AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOWS TO VEER AROUND A MORE SWLY COMPONENT...DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW WHICH WILL HELP TO SCOUR LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS/MOISTURE AND YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 70S
ACROSS THE AREA...APPROACHING NEAR 80 ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES.

THURSDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 03 TO 12Z THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF
THUNDER LOOKS LOW APPEARS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING AND LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT AS THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...BOTH THE
GFS AND EC INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES IN ADVANCE
OF THE MAIN TROUGH THAT COULD ENHANCE FORCING BETWEEN 00 TO 06Z
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LINGERING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.0 DEG/KM ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
DUE TO WANING INSTABILITY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
ANAFRONTAL PRECIP WILL THEN FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
ENSUING STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA. LOWS RANGING FROM UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
NW TO LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS THE SE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE OR MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY TO OFFSET THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED INSOLATION. LINGERING ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS
DRIVEN BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH MID
DAY. THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
BY ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE FORCED BY A TRAILING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT LINGERING MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS ABOVE THE MIXING LEVEL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.
LINGERING CLOUD COVERAGE AND OVERNIGHT MIXING WILL FORTUNATELY AID
IN SOFTENING THE TEMPERATURE CRASH FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FALL NEARLY 100 METERS (25-30 DEGREES BY RULE OF THUMB)
IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING MID TO UPPER 30S...AND
WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND WITH A WARY EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY THAT
CLEARER/CALMER CONDITIONS MIGHT ALLOW US TO RADIATE LOWER.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND HIGHS WILL
STALL IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TO LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OFFSETS INCREASED SUNSHINE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN...RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR IDEAL ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS DAWN MINS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S NORTH TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE SOUTH. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS SUNDAY UNDER STRONG SUN AND NEUTRAL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...AND HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S.

WE HAVE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND SLOWLY RISING H5 HEIGHTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY TO INITIATE A MODERATING TREND IN THE TEMPS. A
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
SQUEEZED OUT BY THIS SYSTEM...THEY WOULD BE LIGHT AS ITS LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRECIPITATED OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW WITH HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY REACHING THE 60S AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM 40 TO 45.
WEDNESDAY IS LOWER CONFIDENCE...BUT LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: AMIDST WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP A
SHALLOW COOL DRY SFC AIRMASS...KINT AND KGSO WILL MAINTAIN MVFR
CEILINGS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AT RWI/FAY...CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR 5000-9000 FT
AGL) AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
SADDLED IN BETWEEN...RDU WILL BE ON THE THRESHOLD OF HIGH-END
MVFR/LOW END VFR WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY 2500-3500 KFT.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STRONG WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION WITHIN A A
STRENGTHENING 35-40KT 925MB LOW-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...KINT AND KGSO MAY EXPERIENCE LLWS BETWEEN 03
TO 12Z AS CAD WEDGE MAY HOLD IN PLACE. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY LLWS AT
THIS TIME...BUT LLWS MAY BE ADDED WITH THE EVENING(00Z)PACKAGE.

CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AS AS A WARM SECTOR BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AND DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BREEZY SWLY WINDS OF 20 TO
25KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.



LOOKING AHEAD: A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT PRECIP
WILL BE MOSTLY ANA-FRONTAL WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS RETURNING EARLY FRI MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE DAY AT EASTERN TERMINALS. THE RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE TEMPORARILY DELAYED UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251929
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WILL SHIFT OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND WILL CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM WEDNESDAY...

STRONG INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITHIN A STRENGTHENING H9 35-40KT
SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT... SUPPORTING
SCATTER TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO
AS AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS(MUCAPE(400-600 J/KG)OWING TO STEEP
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA. AS FAR AS SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WHILE FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35KTS COULD SUPPORT
SOME ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER CELLS...THE ABSENCE OF FORCING
OUTSIDE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA COUPLED WITH SHALLOW DEPTH OF MOISTURE WILL
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.

EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE LINGERING CAD WEDGE IN
PLACE IN THE TRIAD...PERHAPS RISING A FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM WEDNESDAY...

THURSDAY: OWING TO THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT INTO THE
AREA...NOW DELAYED UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...ONCE CONVECTION EXITS
THE COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY MORNING...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY
ACROSS CENTRAL NC. IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER AS WELL. AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOWS TO VEER AROUND A MORE SWLY COMPONENT...DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW WHICH WILL HELP TO SCOUR LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS/MOISTURE AND YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 70S
ACROSS THE AREA...APPROACHING NEAR 80 ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES.

THURSDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 03 TO 12Z THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF
THUNDER LOOKS LOW APPEARS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING AND LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT AS THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...BOTH THE
GFS AND EC INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES IN ADVANCE
OF THE MAIN TROUGH THAT COULD ENHANCE FORCING BETWEEN 00 TO 06Z
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LINGERING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.0 DEG/KM ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
DUE TO WANING INSTABILITY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
ANAFRONTAL PRECIP WILL THEN FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
ENSUING STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA. LOWS RANGING FROM UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
NW TO LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS THE SE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE OR MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY TO OFFSET THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED INSOLATION. LINGERING ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS
DRIVEN BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH MID
DAY. THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
BY ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE FORCED BY A TRAILING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT LINGERING MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS ABOVE THE MIXING LEVEL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.
LINGERING CLOUD COVERAGE AND OVERNIGHT MIXING WILL FORTUNATELY AID
IN SOFTENING THE TEMPERATURE CRASH FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FALL NEARLY 100 METERS (25-30 DEGREES BY RULE OF THUMB)
IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING MID TO UPPER 30S...AND
WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND WITH A WARY EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY THAT
CLEARER/CALMER CONDITIONS MIGHT ALLOW US TO RADIATE LOWER.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND HIGHS WILL
STALL IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TO LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OFFSETS INCREASED SUNSHINE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN...RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR IDEAL ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS DAWN MINS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S NORTH TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE SOUTH. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS SUNDAY UNDER STRONG SUN AND NEUTRAL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...AND HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S.

WE HAVE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND SLOWLY RISING H5 HEIGHTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY TO INITIATE A MODERATING TREND IN THE TEMPS. A
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
SQUEEZED OUT BY THIS SYSTEM...THEY WOULD BE LIGHT AS ITS LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRECIPITATED OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW WITH HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY REACHING THE 60S AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM 40 TO 45.
WEDNESDAY IS LOWER CONFIDENCE...BUT LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: AMIDST WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP A
SHALLOW COOL DRY SFC AIRMASS...KINT AND KGSO WILL MAINTAIN MVFR
CEILINGS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AT RWI/FAY...CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR 5000-9000 FT
AGL) AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
SADDLED IN BETWEEN...RDU WILL BE ON THE THRESHOLD OF HIGH-END
MVFR/LOW END VFR WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY 2500-3500 KFT.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STRONG WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION WITHIN A A
STRENGTHENING 35-40KT 925MB LOW-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...KINT AND KGSO MAY EXPERIENCE LLWS BETWEEN 03
TO 12Z AS CAD WEDGE MAY HOLD IN PLACE. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY LLWS AT
THIS TIME...BUT LLWS MAY BE ADDED WITH THE EVENING(00Z)PACKAGE.

CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AS AS A WARM SECTOR BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AND DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BREEZY SWLY WINDS OF 20 TO
25KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.



LOOKING AHEAD: A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT PRECIP
WILL BE MOSTLY ANA-FRONTAL WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS RETURNING EARLY FRI MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE DAY AT EASTERN TERMINALS. THE RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE TEMPORARILY DELAYED UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 251824
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
225 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WILL SHIFT OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND WILL CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM WEDNESDAY...

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ATOP A COOL DRY NEAR SFC AIRMASS HAS
RESULTED IN A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING AS 500MB HEIGHTS HAVE
ACTUALLY INCREASED OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES.

HOWEVER BY THE AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR RIDGE SHIFTS OUT TO
SEA...925-850MB SELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL FEED ADVECTING INLAND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY STRONGER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SUPPORTING INCREASING
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME ELEVATED THUNDER AS WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS(MUCAPE(400-600 J/KG)OWING TO STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND
35+ KT WLY DEEP SHEAR. AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL... OUTSIDE OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WAA ...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK. AND
THUS WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. BUT GIVEN FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 35KTS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE IF A STORM OR TWO ACROSS
EASTERN/COASTAL PORTIONS EXHIBITS WEAK ROTATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONE OF THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECTS OF THIS
FORECAST. PIREP REPORTS ACROSS THE AREA INDICATE LOW-CLOUD DECK IS
ONLY 300-1000FT THICK...THICKEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE
BETTER WARM MOIST LOW-LEVEL AND THINNEST IN THE EAST IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR RIDGE WHERE SKIES ARE
CLEAR/SUNNY. SO THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FORECAST BUST WRT TO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE JUST A HOUR OR TWO OF SUN/PARTIAL SUN COULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO JUMP UP CONSIDERABLY. ADDITIONALLY COULD SEE A
LATE RISE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...GIVEN
EXPECTED TIMING OF SFC WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE WEST WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH DIURNAL HEATING KEEPING THE CAD WEDGE IN
PLACE. HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 50S NW TO LOWER 70S SE.

EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS IN THE TRIAD OVERNIGHT... PERHAPS RISING A
FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S WEST OF HWY 1 TO LOWER/MID 60S EAST AND ESP
SE OF HWY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THE CAD WEDGE TO ERODE THU MORNING TO EARLY THU AFTERNOON AS
A SFC LOW TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
ESTABLISHING A WARM SECTOR OVER MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF CENTRAL NC.
WITH THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION ALREADY NORTH OF THE REGION AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL /SW/ FLOW ALOFT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ON THE
WEAK SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON... UNTIL THE
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SFC COLD
FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THU AFT/EVE INTO THU NIGHT. EXPECT
A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH 18Z THU ASIDE FROM LINGERING DRIZZLE
PRIOR TO WEDGE EROSION...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEST-EAST LATE THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT AS THE
FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT. OUTSIDE OF
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...THUNDER APPEARS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN
UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND DPVA ATTENDANT THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT /WARM SECTOR/.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE NW
PIEDMONT WHERE LOWER 70S APPEAR MORE LIKELY. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL
DEPEND ENTIRELY ON THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE LOWER/MID 60S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME
WILL INDICATE TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S IN THE TRIAD BY SUNRISE
FRI...BUT REMAINING STEADY ELSEWHERE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE OR MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY TO OFFSET THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED INSOLATION. LINGERING ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS
DRIVEN BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH MID
DAY. THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
BY ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE FORCED BY A TRAILING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT LINGERING MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS ABOVE THE MIXING LEVEL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.
LINGERING CLOUD COVERAGE AND OVERNIGHT MIXING WILL FORTUNATELY AID
IN SOFTENING THE TEMPERATURE CRASH FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FALL NEARLY 100 METERS (25-30 DEGREES BY RULE OF THUMB)
IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING MID TO UPPER 30S...AND
WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND WITH A WARY EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY THAT
CLEARER/CALMER CONDITIONS MIGHT ALLOW US TO RADIATE LOWER.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND HIGHS WILL
STALL IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TO LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OFFSETS INCREASED SUNSHINE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN...RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR IDEAL ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS DAWN MINS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S NORTH TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE SOUTH. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS SUNDAY UNDER STRONG SUN AND NEUTRAL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...AND HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S.

WE HAVE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND SLOWLY RISING H5 HEIGHTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY TO INITIATE A MODERATING TREND IN THE TEMPS. A
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
SQUEEZED OUT BY THIS SYSTEM...THEY WOULD BE LIGHT AS ITS LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRECIPITATED OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW WITH HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY REACHING THE 60S AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM 40 TO 45.
WEDNESDAY IS LOWER CONFIDENCE...BUT LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: AMIDST WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP A
SHALLOW COOL DRY SFC AIRMASS...KINT AND KGSO WILL MAINTAIN MVFR
CEILINGS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AT RWI/FAY...CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR 5000-9000 FT
AGL) AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
SADDLED IN BETWEEN...RDU WILL BE ON THE THRESHOLD OF HIGH-END
MVFR/LOW END VFR WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY 2500-3500 KFT.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STRONG WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION WITHIN A A
STRENGTHENING 35-40KT 925MB LOW-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...KINT AND KGSO MAY EXPERIENCE LLWS BETWEEN 03
TO 12Z AS CAD WEDGE MAY HOLD IN PLACE. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY LLWS AT
THIS TIME...BUT LLWS MAY BE ADDED WITH THE EVENING(00Z)PACKAGE.

CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AS AS A WARM SECTOR BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AND DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BREEZY SWLY WINDS OF 20 TO
25KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.



LOOKING AHEAD: A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT PRECIP
WILL BE MOSTLY ANA-FRONTAL WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS RETURNING EARLY FRI MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE DAY AT EASTERN TERMINALS. THE RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE TEMPORARILY DELAYED UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251824
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
225 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WILL SHIFT OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND WILL CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM WEDNESDAY...

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ATOP A COOL DRY NEAR SFC AIRMASS HAS
RESULTED IN A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING AS 500MB HEIGHTS HAVE
ACTUALLY INCREASED OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES.

HOWEVER BY THE AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR RIDGE SHIFTS OUT TO
SEA...925-850MB SELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL FEED ADVECTING INLAND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY STRONGER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SUPPORTING INCREASING
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME ELEVATED THUNDER AS WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS(MUCAPE(400-600 J/KG)OWING TO STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND
35+ KT WLY DEEP SHEAR. AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL... OUTSIDE OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WAA ...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK. AND
THUS WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. BUT GIVEN FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 35KTS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE IF A STORM OR TWO ACROSS
EASTERN/COASTAL PORTIONS EXHIBITS WEAK ROTATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONE OF THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECTS OF THIS
FORECAST. PIREP REPORTS ACROSS THE AREA INDICATE LOW-CLOUD DECK IS
ONLY 300-1000FT THICK...THICKEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE
BETTER WARM MOIST LOW-LEVEL AND THINNEST IN THE EAST IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR RIDGE WHERE SKIES ARE
CLEAR/SUNNY. SO THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FORECAST BUST WRT TO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE JUST A HOUR OR TWO OF SUN/PARTIAL SUN COULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO JUMP UP CONSIDERABLY. ADDITIONALLY COULD SEE A
LATE RISE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...GIVEN
EXPECTED TIMING OF SFC WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE WEST WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH DIURNAL HEATING KEEPING THE CAD WEDGE IN
PLACE. HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 50S NW TO LOWER 70S SE.

EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS IN THE TRIAD OVERNIGHT... PERHAPS RISING A
FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S WEST OF HWY 1 TO LOWER/MID 60S EAST AND ESP
SE OF HWY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THE CAD WEDGE TO ERODE THU MORNING TO EARLY THU AFTERNOON AS
A SFC LOW TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
ESTABLISHING A WARM SECTOR OVER MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF CENTRAL NC.
WITH THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION ALREADY NORTH OF THE REGION AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL /SW/ FLOW ALOFT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ON THE
WEAK SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON... UNTIL THE
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SFC COLD
FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THU AFT/EVE INTO THU NIGHT. EXPECT
A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH 18Z THU ASIDE FROM LINGERING DRIZZLE
PRIOR TO WEDGE EROSION...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEST-EAST LATE THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT AS THE
FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT. OUTSIDE OF
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...THUNDER APPEARS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN
UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND DPVA ATTENDANT THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT /WARM SECTOR/.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE NW
PIEDMONT WHERE LOWER 70S APPEAR MORE LIKELY. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL
DEPEND ENTIRELY ON THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE LOWER/MID 60S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME
WILL INDICATE TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S IN THE TRIAD BY SUNRISE
FRI...BUT REMAINING STEADY ELSEWHERE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE OR MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY TO OFFSET THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED INSOLATION. LINGERING ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS
DRIVEN BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH MID
DAY. THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
BY ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE FORCED BY A TRAILING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT LINGERING MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS ABOVE THE MIXING LEVEL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.
LINGERING CLOUD COVERAGE AND OVERNIGHT MIXING WILL FORTUNATELY AID
IN SOFTENING THE TEMPERATURE CRASH FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FALL NEARLY 100 METERS (25-30 DEGREES BY RULE OF THUMB)
IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING MID TO UPPER 30S...AND
WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND WITH A WARY EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY THAT
CLEARER/CALMER CONDITIONS MIGHT ALLOW US TO RADIATE LOWER.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND HIGHS WILL
STALL IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TO LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OFFSETS INCREASED SUNSHINE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN...RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR IDEAL ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS DAWN MINS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S NORTH TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE SOUTH. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS SUNDAY UNDER STRONG SUN AND NEUTRAL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...AND HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S.

WE HAVE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND SLOWLY RISING H5 HEIGHTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY TO INITIATE A MODERATING TREND IN THE TEMPS. A
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
SQUEEZED OUT BY THIS SYSTEM...THEY WOULD BE LIGHT AS ITS LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRECIPITATED OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW WITH HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY REACHING THE 60S AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM 40 TO 45.
WEDNESDAY IS LOWER CONFIDENCE...BUT LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: AMIDST WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP A
SHALLOW COOL DRY SFC AIRMASS...KINT AND KGSO WILL MAINTAIN MVFR
CEILINGS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AT RWI/FAY...CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR 5000-9000 FT
AGL) AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
SADDLED IN BETWEEN...RDU WILL BE ON THE THRESHOLD OF HIGH-END
MVFR/LOW END VFR WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY 2500-3500 KFT.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STRONG WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION WITHIN A A
STRENGTHENING 35-40KT 925MB LOW-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...KINT AND KGSO MAY EXPERIENCE LLWS BETWEEN 03
TO 12Z AS CAD WEDGE MAY HOLD IN PLACE. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY LLWS AT
THIS TIME...BUT LLWS MAY BE ADDED WITH THE EVENING(00Z)PACKAGE.

CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AS AS A WARM SECTOR BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AND DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BREEZY SWLY WINDS OF 20 TO
25KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.



LOOKING AHEAD: A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT PRECIP
WILL BE MOSTLY ANA-FRONTAL WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS RETURNING EARLY FRI MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE DAY AT EASTERN TERMINALS. THE RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE TEMPORARILY DELAYED UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 251824
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
225 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WILL SHIFT OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND WILL CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM WEDNESDAY...

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ATOP A COOL DRY NEAR SFC AIRMASS HAS
RESULTED IN A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING AS 500MB HEIGHTS HAVE
ACTUALLY INCREASED OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES.

HOWEVER BY THE AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR RIDGE SHIFTS OUT TO
SEA...925-850MB SELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL FEED ADVECTING INLAND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY STRONGER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SUPPORTING INCREASING
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME ELEVATED THUNDER AS WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS(MUCAPE(400-600 J/KG)OWING TO STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND
35+ KT WLY DEEP SHEAR. AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL... OUTSIDE OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WAA ...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK. AND
THUS WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. BUT GIVEN FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 35KTS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE IF A STORM OR TWO ACROSS
EASTERN/COASTAL PORTIONS EXHIBITS WEAK ROTATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONE OF THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECTS OF THIS
FORECAST. PIREP REPORTS ACROSS THE AREA INDICATE LOW-CLOUD DECK IS
ONLY 300-1000FT THICK...THICKEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE
BETTER WARM MOIST LOW-LEVEL AND THINNEST IN THE EAST IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR RIDGE WHERE SKIES ARE
CLEAR/SUNNY. SO THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FORECAST BUST WRT TO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE JUST A HOUR OR TWO OF SUN/PARTIAL SUN COULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO JUMP UP CONSIDERABLY. ADDITIONALLY COULD SEE A
LATE RISE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...GIVEN
EXPECTED TIMING OF SFC WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE WEST WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH DIURNAL HEATING KEEPING THE CAD WEDGE IN
PLACE. HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 50S NW TO LOWER 70S SE.

EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS IN THE TRIAD OVERNIGHT... PERHAPS RISING A
FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S WEST OF HWY 1 TO LOWER/MID 60S EAST AND ESP
SE OF HWY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THE CAD WEDGE TO ERODE THU MORNING TO EARLY THU AFTERNOON AS
A SFC LOW TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
ESTABLISHING A WARM SECTOR OVER MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF CENTRAL NC.
WITH THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION ALREADY NORTH OF THE REGION AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL /SW/ FLOW ALOFT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ON THE
WEAK SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON... UNTIL THE
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SFC COLD
FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THU AFT/EVE INTO THU NIGHT. EXPECT
A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH 18Z THU ASIDE FROM LINGERING DRIZZLE
PRIOR TO WEDGE EROSION...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEST-EAST LATE THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT AS THE
FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT. OUTSIDE OF
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...THUNDER APPEARS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN
UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND DPVA ATTENDANT THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT /WARM SECTOR/.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE NW
PIEDMONT WHERE LOWER 70S APPEAR MORE LIKELY. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL
DEPEND ENTIRELY ON THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE LOWER/MID 60S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME
WILL INDICATE TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S IN THE TRIAD BY SUNRISE
FRI...BUT REMAINING STEADY ELSEWHERE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE OR MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY TO OFFSET THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED INSOLATION. LINGERING ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS
DRIVEN BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH MID
DAY. THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
BY ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE FORCED BY A TRAILING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT LINGERING MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS ABOVE THE MIXING LEVEL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.
LINGERING CLOUD COVERAGE AND OVERNIGHT MIXING WILL FORTUNATELY AID
IN SOFTENING THE TEMPERATURE CRASH FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FALL NEARLY 100 METERS (25-30 DEGREES BY RULE OF THUMB)
IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING MID TO UPPER 30S...AND
WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND WITH A WARY EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY THAT
CLEARER/CALMER CONDITIONS MIGHT ALLOW US TO RADIATE LOWER.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND HIGHS WILL
STALL IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TO LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OFFSETS INCREASED SUNSHINE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN...RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR IDEAL ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS DAWN MINS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S NORTH TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE SOUTH. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS SUNDAY UNDER STRONG SUN AND NEUTRAL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...AND HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S.

WE HAVE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND SLOWLY RISING H5 HEIGHTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY TO INITIATE A MODERATING TREND IN THE TEMPS. A
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
SQUEEZED OUT BY THIS SYSTEM...THEY WOULD BE LIGHT AS ITS LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRECIPITATED OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW WITH HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY REACHING THE 60S AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM 40 TO 45.
WEDNESDAY IS LOWER CONFIDENCE...BUT LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: AMIDST WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP A
SHALLOW COOL DRY SFC AIRMASS...KINT AND KGSO WILL MAINTAIN MVFR
CEILINGS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AT RWI/FAY...CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR 5000-9000 FT
AGL) AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
SADDLED IN BETWEEN...RDU WILL BE ON THE THRESHOLD OF HIGH-END
MVFR/LOW END VFR WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY 2500-3500 KFT.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STRONG WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION WITHIN A A
STRENGTHENING 35-40KT 925MB LOW-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...KINT AND KGSO MAY EXPERIENCE LLWS BETWEEN 03
TO 12Z AS CAD WEDGE MAY HOLD IN PLACE. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY LLWS AT
THIS TIME...BUT LLWS MAY BE ADDED WITH THE EVENING(00Z)PACKAGE.

CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AS AS A WARM SECTOR BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AND DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BREEZY SWLY WINDS OF 20 TO
25KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.



LOOKING AHEAD: A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT PRECIP
WILL BE MOSTLY ANA-FRONTAL WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS RETURNING EARLY FRI MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE DAY AT EASTERN TERMINALS. THE RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE TEMPORARILY DELAYED UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 251824
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
225 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WILL SHIFT OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND WILL CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM WEDNESDAY...

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ATOP A COOL DRY NEAR SFC AIRMASS HAS
RESULTED IN A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING AS 500MB HEIGHTS HAVE
ACTUALLY INCREASED OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES.

HOWEVER BY THE AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR RIDGE SHIFTS OUT TO
SEA...925-850MB SELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL FEED ADVECTING INLAND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY STRONGER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SUPPORTING INCREASING
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME ELEVATED THUNDER AS WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS(MUCAPE(400-600 J/KG)OWING TO STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND
35+ KT WLY DEEP SHEAR. AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL... OUTSIDE OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WAA ...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK. AND
THUS WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. BUT GIVEN FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 35KTS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE IF A STORM OR TWO ACROSS
EASTERN/COASTAL PORTIONS EXHIBITS WEAK ROTATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONE OF THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECTS OF THIS
FORECAST. PIREP REPORTS ACROSS THE AREA INDICATE LOW-CLOUD DECK IS
ONLY 300-1000FT THICK...THICKEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE
BETTER WARM MOIST LOW-LEVEL AND THINNEST IN THE EAST IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR RIDGE WHERE SKIES ARE
CLEAR/SUNNY. SO THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FORECAST BUST WRT TO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE JUST A HOUR OR TWO OF SUN/PARTIAL SUN COULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO JUMP UP CONSIDERABLY. ADDITIONALLY COULD SEE A
LATE RISE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...GIVEN
EXPECTED TIMING OF SFC WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE WEST WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH DIURNAL HEATING KEEPING THE CAD WEDGE IN
PLACE. HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 50S NW TO LOWER 70S SE.

EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS IN THE TRIAD OVERNIGHT... PERHAPS RISING A
FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S WEST OF HWY 1 TO LOWER/MID 60S EAST AND ESP
SE OF HWY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THE CAD WEDGE TO ERODE THU MORNING TO EARLY THU AFTERNOON AS
A SFC LOW TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
ESTABLISHING A WARM SECTOR OVER MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF CENTRAL NC.
WITH THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION ALREADY NORTH OF THE REGION AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL /SW/ FLOW ALOFT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ON THE
WEAK SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON... UNTIL THE
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SFC COLD
FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THU AFT/EVE INTO THU NIGHT. EXPECT
A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH 18Z THU ASIDE FROM LINGERING DRIZZLE
PRIOR TO WEDGE EROSION...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEST-EAST LATE THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT AS THE
FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT. OUTSIDE OF
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...THUNDER APPEARS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN
UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND DPVA ATTENDANT THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT /WARM SECTOR/.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE NW
PIEDMONT WHERE LOWER 70S APPEAR MORE LIKELY. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL
DEPEND ENTIRELY ON THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE LOWER/MID 60S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME
WILL INDICATE TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S IN THE TRIAD BY SUNRISE
FRI...BUT REMAINING STEADY ELSEWHERE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE OR MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY TO OFFSET THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED INSOLATION. LINGERING ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS
DRIVEN BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH MID
DAY. THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
BY ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE FORCED BY A TRAILING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT LINGERING MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS ABOVE THE MIXING LEVEL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.
LINGERING CLOUD COVERAGE AND OVERNIGHT MIXING WILL FORTUNATELY AID
IN SOFTENING THE TEMPERATURE CRASH FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FALL NEARLY 100 METERS (25-30 DEGREES BY RULE OF THUMB)
IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING MID TO UPPER 30S...AND
WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND WITH A WARY EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY THAT
CLEARER/CALMER CONDITIONS MIGHT ALLOW US TO RADIATE LOWER.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND HIGHS WILL
STALL IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TO LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OFFSETS INCREASED SUNSHINE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN...RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR IDEAL ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS DAWN MINS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S NORTH TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE SOUTH. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS SUNDAY UNDER STRONG SUN AND NEUTRAL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...AND HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S.

WE HAVE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND SLOWLY RISING H5 HEIGHTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY TO INITIATE A MODERATING TREND IN THE TEMPS. A
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
SQUEEZED OUT BY THIS SYSTEM...THEY WOULD BE LIGHT AS ITS LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRECIPITATED OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW WITH HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY REACHING THE 60S AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM 40 TO 45.
WEDNESDAY IS LOWER CONFIDENCE...BUT LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: AMIDST WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP A
SHALLOW COOL DRY SFC AIRMASS...KINT AND KGSO WILL MAINTAIN MVFR
CEILINGS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AT RWI/FAY...CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR 5000-9000 FT
AGL) AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
SADDLED IN BETWEEN...RDU WILL BE ON THE THRESHOLD OF HIGH-END
MVFR/LOW END VFR WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY 2500-3500 KFT.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STRONG WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION WITHIN A A
STRENGTHENING 35-40KT 925MB LOW-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR
OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...KINT AND KGSO MAY EXPERIENCE LLWS BETWEEN 03
TO 12Z AS CAD WEDGE MAY HOLD IN PLACE. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY LLWS AT
THIS TIME...BUT LLWS MAY BE ADDED WITH THE EVENING(00Z)PACKAGE.

CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AS AS A WARM SECTOR BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AND DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BREEZY SWLY WINDS OF 20 TO
25KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.



LOOKING AHEAD: A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT PRECIP
WILL BE MOSTLY ANA-FRONTAL WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS RETURNING EARLY FRI MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE DAY AT EASTERN TERMINALS. THE RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE TEMPORARILY DELAYED UNTIL THE
PASSAGE OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251450
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1050 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WILL SHIFT OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND WILL CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM WEDNESDAY...

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ATOP A COOL DRY NEAR SFC AIRMASS HAS
RESULTED IN A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING AS 500MB HEIGHTS HAVE
ACTUALLY INCREASED OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES.

HOWEVER BY THE AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR RIDGE SHIFTS OUT TO
SEA...925-850MB SELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL FEED ADVECTING INLAND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY STRONGER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOUR...SUPPORTING INCREASING
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME ELEVATED THUNDER AS WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS(MUCAPE(400-600 J/KG)OWING TO STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND
35+ KT WLY DEEP SHEAR. AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL... OUTSIDE OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WAA ...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK.
AND THUS WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. BUT GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR
ALOFT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE IF A STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE EAST
EXHIBITED WEAK ROTATION ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONE OF THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECTS OF THIS
FORECAST. PIREP REPORTS ACROSS THE AREA INDICATE LOW-CLOUD DECK IS
ONLY 300-1000FT THICK...THICKEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE
BETTER WARM MOIST LOW-LEVEL AND THINNEST IN THE EAST IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR RIDGE WHERE SKIES ARE
CLEAR/SUNNY. SO THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FORECAST BUST WRT TO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE JUST A HOUR OR TWO OF SUN/PARTIAL SUN COULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO JUMP UP CONSIDERABLY. ADDITIONALLY COULD SEE A
LATE RISE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...GIVEN
EXPECTED TIMING OF SFC WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE WEST WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH DIURNAL HEATING KEEPING THE CAD WEDGE IN
PLACE. HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 50S NW TO LOWER 70S SE.

EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS IN THE TRIAD OVERNIGHT... PERHAPS RISING A
FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S WEST OF HWY 1 TO LOWER/MID 60S EAST AND ESP
SE OF HWY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THE CAD WEDGE TO ERODE THU MORNING TO EARLY THU AFTERNOON AS
A SFC LOW TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
ESTABLISHING A WARM SECTOR OVER MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF CENTRAL NC.
WITH THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION ALREADY NORTH OF THE REGION AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL /SW/ FLOW ALOFT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ON THE
WEAK SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON... UNTIL THE
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SFC COLD
FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THU AFT/EVE INTO THU NIGHT. EXPECT
A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH 18Z THU ASIDE FROM LINGERING DRIZZLE
PRIOR TO WEDGE EROSION...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEST-EAST LATE THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT AS THE
FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT. OUTSIDE OF
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...THUNDER APPEARS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN
UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND DPVA ATTENDANT THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT /WARM SECTOR/.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE NW
PIEDMONT WHERE LOWER 70S APPEAR MORE LIKELY. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL
DEPEND ENTIRELY ON THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE LOWER/MID 60S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME
WILL INDICATE TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S IN THE TRIAD BY SUNRISE
FRI...BUT REMAINING STEADY ELSEWHERE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE OR MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY TO OFFSET THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED INSOLATION. LINGERING ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS
DRIVEN BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH MID
DAY. THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
BY ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE FORCED BY A TRAILING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT LINGERING MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS ABOVE THE MIXING LEVEL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.
LINGERING CLOUD COVERAGE AND OVERNIGHT MIXING WILL FORTUNATELY AID
IN SOFTENING THE TEMPERATURE CRASH FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FALL NEARLY 100 METERS (25-30 DEGREES BY RULE OF THUMB)
IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING MID TO UPPER 30S...AND
WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND WITH A WARY EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY THAT
CLEARER/CALMER CONDITIONS MIGHT ALLOW US TO RADIATE LOWER.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND HIGHS WILL
STALL IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TO LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OFFSETS INCREASED SUNSHINE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN...RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR IDEAL ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS DAWN MINS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S NORTH TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE SOUTH. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS SUNDAY UNDER STRONG SUN AND NEUTRAL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...AND HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S.

WE HAVE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND SLOWLY RISING H5 HEIGHTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY TO INITIATE A MODERATING TREND IN THE TEMPS. A
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
SQUEEZED OUT BY THIS SYSTEM...THEY WOULD BE LIGHT AS ITS LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRECIPITATED OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW WITH HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY REACHING THE 60S AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM 40 TO 45.
WEDNESDAY IS LOWER CONFIDENCE...BUT LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THIS
MORNING IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP A COOL SFC AIRMASS
RECENTLY DEPOSITED IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGRESSING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 1000-2000 FT AGL WITH AN EASTERLY WIND AT 5-10 KT.

RWI/FAY/RDU: CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO HIGH-END MVFR OR LOW-
END VFR (2500-3500 FT AGL) BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE THE CAD WEDGE
WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT PROGRESSING WESTWARD TO THE HWY 1
CORRIDOR. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR AND
PERHAPS LIFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

INT/GSO: FURTHER NW WHERE THE CAD WEDGE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE...MVFR TO BORDERLINE IFR CEILINGS (~1000 FT AGL) ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL TODAY...WITH FURTHER DETERIORATION TO LIFR (CEILINGS 200-
400 FT AGL) LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
AND POSSIBLY VFR DURING THE DAY THU AS A WARM SECTOR BECOMES MORE
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER CENTRAL NC...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
TAKE LONGER TO IMPROVE AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS AND MAY REMAIN SUB-
VFR THE ENTIRE DAY. ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY TERMINAL THU AFT/EVE INTO THU NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. OVERCAST MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN
EARLY FRI MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERSISTING THROUGH THE
DAY AT EASTERN TERMINALS...BEFORE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND
ALLOWS IMPROVEMENT FRI NIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 251450
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1050 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION WILL SHIFT OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND WILL CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM WEDNESDAY...

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ATOP A COOL DRY NEAR SFC AIRMASS HAS
RESULTED IN A FEW SPRINKLES THIS MORNING AS 500MB HEIGHTS HAVE
ACTUALLY INCREASED OVER THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES.

HOWEVER BY THE AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR RIDGE SHIFTS OUT TO
SEA...925-850MB SELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL FEED ADVECTING INLAND OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY STRONGER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOUR...SUPPORTING INCREASING
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME ELEVATED THUNDER AS WEAK INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS(MUCAPE(400-600 J/KG)OWING TO STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND
35+ KT WLY DEEP SHEAR. AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL... OUTSIDE OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WAA ...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK.
AND THUS WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. BUT GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR
ALOFT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE IF A STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE EAST
EXHIBITED WEAK ROTATION ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONE OF THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECTS OF THIS
FORECAST. PIREP REPORTS ACROSS THE AREA INDICATE LOW-CLOUD DECK IS
ONLY 300-1000FT THICK...THICKEST ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE
BETTER WARM MOIST LOW-LEVEL AND THINNEST IN THE EAST IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR RIDGE WHERE SKIES ARE
CLEAR/SUNNY. SO THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FORECAST BUST WRT TO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE JUST A HOUR OR TWO OF SUN/PARTIAL SUN COULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO JUMP UP CONSIDERABLY. ADDITIONALLY COULD SEE A
LATE RISE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...GIVEN
EXPECTED TIMING OF SFC WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE WEST WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH DIURNAL HEATING KEEPING THE CAD WEDGE IN
PLACE. HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 50S NW TO LOWER 70S SE.

EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS IN THE TRIAD OVERNIGHT... PERHAPS RISING A
FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S WEST OF HWY 1 TO LOWER/MID 60S EAST AND ESP
SE OF HWY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THE CAD WEDGE TO ERODE THU MORNING TO EARLY THU AFTERNOON AS
A SFC LOW TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
ESTABLISHING A WARM SECTOR OVER MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF CENTRAL NC.
WITH THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION ALREADY NORTH OF THE REGION AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL /SW/ FLOW ALOFT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ON THE
WEAK SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON... UNTIL THE
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SFC COLD
FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THU AFT/EVE INTO THU NIGHT. EXPECT
A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH 18Z THU ASIDE FROM LINGERING DRIZZLE
PRIOR TO WEDGE EROSION...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEST-EAST LATE THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT AS THE
FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT. OUTSIDE OF
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...THUNDER APPEARS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN
UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND DPVA ATTENDANT THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT /WARM SECTOR/.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE NW
PIEDMONT WHERE LOWER 70S APPEAR MORE LIKELY. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL
DEPEND ENTIRELY ON THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE LOWER/MID 60S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME
WILL INDICATE TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S IN THE TRIAD BY SUNRISE
FRI...BUT REMAINING STEADY ELSEWHERE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE OR MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY TO OFFSET THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED INSOLATION. LINGERING ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS
DRIVEN BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH MID
DAY. THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
BY ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE FORCED BY A TRAILING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT LINGERING MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS ABOVE THE MIXING LEVEL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.
LINGERING CLOUD COVERAGE AND OVERNIGHT MIXING WILL FORTUNATELY AID
IN SOFTENING THE TEMPERATURE CRASH FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FALL NEARLY 100 METERS (25-30 DEGREES BY RULE OF THUMB)
IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING MID TO UPPER 30S...AND
WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND WITH A WARY EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY THAT
CLEARER/CALMER CONDITIONS MIGHT ALLOW US TO RADIATE LOWER.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND HIGHS WILL
STALL IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TO LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OFFSETS INCREASED SUNSHINE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN...RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR IDEAL ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS DAWN MINS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S NORTH TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE SOUTH. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS SUNDAY UNDER STRONG SUN AND NEUTRAL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...AND HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S.

WE HAVE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND SLOWLY RISING H5 HEIGHTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY TO INITIATE A MODERATING TREND IN THE TEMPS. A
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
SQUEEZED OUT BY THIS SYSTEM...THEY WOULD BE LIGHT AS ITS LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRECIPITATED OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW WITH HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY REACHING THE 60S AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM 40 TO 45.
WEDNESDAY IS LOWER CONFIDENCE...BUT LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THIS
MORNING IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP A COOL SFC AIRMASS
RECENTLY DEPOSITED IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGRESSING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 1000-2000 FT AGL WITH AN EASTERLY WIND AT 5-10 KT.

RWI/FAY/RDU: CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO HIGH-END MVFR OR LOW-
END VFR (2500-3500 FT AGL) BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE THE CAD WEDGE
WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT PROGRESSING WESTWARD TO THE HWY 1
CORRIDOR. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR AND
PERHAPS LIFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

INT/GSO: FURTHER NW WHERE THE CAD WEDGE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE...MVFR TO BORDERLINE IFR CEILINGS (~1000 FT AGL) ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL TODAY...WITH FURTHER DETERIORATION TO LIFR (CEILINGS 200-
400 FT AGL) LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
AND POSSIBLY VFR DURING THE DAY THU AS A WARM SECTOR BECOMES MORE
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER CENTRAL NC...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
TAKE LONGER TO IMPROVE AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS AND MAY REMAIN SUB-
VFR THE ENTIRE DAY. ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY TERMINAL THU AFT/EVE INTO THU NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. OVERCAST MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN
EARLY FRI MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERSISTING THROUGH THE
DAY AT EASTERN TERMINALS...BEFORE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND
ALLOWS IMPROVEMENT FRI NIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251045
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TEMPORARILY STALL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACK NE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL DIG SE INTO THE LOWER MIDWEST
LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES: CHALLENGING FORECAST. COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE BACKDOOR FRONT HAS ALREADY DROPPED TEMPS TO ~45F IN THE NE
COASTAL PLAIN...AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 40S
VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE BY SUNRISE...PERHAPS NEAR 50F IN THE FAR SW
PIEDMONT. OVERCAST CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 2 KFT HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC...IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP
THE COOLER NEAR-SFC AIRMASS CURRENTLY ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE STRONGEST...
AND THE CAD WEDGE IS UNLIKELY TO BREAK IN THE NW PIEDMONT... ESP
GIVEN LITTLE OR NO SYNOPTIC PUSH TO THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE GRADUALLY WEST/NW TOWARD THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT TO LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SE
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE CAD EROSION WILL OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE. EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS IN THE TRIAD OVERNIGHT...
PERHAPS RISING A FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S WEST OF HWY 1 TO LOWER/MID 60S
EAST AND ESP SE OF HWY 1.

PRECIP TODAY: WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES...UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE CONFINED TO
CYCLONIC SHEAR VORTICITY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A ~90 KT JET
STREAK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A RESULT...FORCING WILL
LARGELY BE CONFINED TO LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TODAY...STRONGEST IN
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE INCREASINGLY RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE SE COAST
/ATLANTIC/. A MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EMANATING FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH SPC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-7.5 C/KM
OVER WESTERN NC AT 08Z. WITH A CAD WEDGE IN PLACE...THIS FEATURE
WILL SERVE AS AN EFFECTIVE CAP UNTIL SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
WARMING/MOISTENING CAN BE ACHIEVED. H85 MOISTENING BENEATH THE
MODIFIED EML OVER THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON MAY YIELD
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG (MUCAPE) BY
21Z...AND SFC MOISTENING IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BE SUFFICIENT
TO YIELD 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. LOW-LEVEL WAA AND CYCLONIC SHEAR
VORTICITY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD
ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/
INTENSITY IS LOW GIVEN A LACK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY /DPVA/. THOUGH
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AND ISOLD
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
LARGELY BE CONFINED TO WEAK/SHALLOW CONVERGENCE UNLIKELY TO OVERCOME
THE MID-LEVEL CAP.

PRECIP TONIGHT: LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
CENTRAL NC TONIGHT AS A ~30 KT LLJ ADVECTS AN INCREASINGLY
WARM/MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS BENEATH THE MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER IN PLACE. FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS INTO THE PLAINS...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES TO TRACK INTO THE REGION...
THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES ARE PROGGED AT THIS TIME. MOISTENING
WILL NO DOUBT RESULT IN MARGINAL NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH WITH
SUCH A DRY AIRMASS AT/ABOVE H7...COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE DOES INDEED
INDICATE MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT.

SEVERE: IF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND DEEP-LAYER FORCING ARE
SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE DEEP ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH
AN ENHANCED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF
REALIZING SUCH A SCENARIO IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MENTION OUTSIDE
OF THIS DISCUSSION. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THE CAD WEDGE TO ERODE THU MORNING TO EARLY THU AFTERNOON AS
A SFC LOW TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
ESTABLISHING A WARM SECTOR OVER MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF CENTRAL NC.
WITH THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION ALREADY NORTH OF THE REGION AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL /SW/ FLOW ALOFT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ON THE
WEAK SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON... UNTIL THE
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SFC COLD
FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THU AFT/EVE INTO THU NIGHT. EXPECT
A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH 18Z THU ASIDE FROM LINGERING DRIZZLE
PRIOR TO WEDGE EROSION...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEST-EAST LATE THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT AS THE
FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT. OUTSIDE OF
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...THUNDER APPEARS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN
UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND DPVA ATTENDANT THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT /WARM SECTOR/.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE NW
PIEDMONT WHERE LOWER 70S APPEAR MORE LIKELY. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL
DEPEND ENTIRELY ON THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE LOWER/MID 60S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME
WILL INDICATE TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S IN THE TRIAD BY SUNRISE
FRI...BUT REMAINING STEADY ELSEWHERE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE OR MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY TO OFFSET THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED INSOLATION. LINGERING ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS
DRIVEN BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH MID
DAY. THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
BY ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE FORCED BY A TRAILING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT LINGERING MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS ABOVE THE MIXING LEVEL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.
LINGERING CLOUD COVERAGE AND OVERNIGHT MIXING WILL FORTUNATELY AID
IN SOFTENING THE TEMPERATURE CRASH FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FALL NEARLY 100 METERS (25-30 DEGREES BY RULE OF THUMB)
IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING MID TO UPPER 30S...AND
WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND WITH A WARY EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY THAT
CLEARER/CALMER CONDITIONS MIGHT ALLOW US TO RADIATE LOWER.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND HIGHS WILL
STALL IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TO LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OFFSETS INCREASED SUNSHINE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN...RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR IDEAL ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS DAWN MINS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S NORTH TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE SOUTH. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS SUNDAY UNDER STRONG SUN AND NEUTRAL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...AND HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S.

WE HAVE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND SLOWLY RISING H5 HEIGHTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY TO INITIATE A MODERATING TREND IN THE TEMPS. A
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
SQUEEZED OUT BY THIS SYSTEM...THEY WOULD BE LIGHT AS ITS LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRECIPITATED OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW WITH HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY REACHING THE 60S AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM 40 TO 45.
WEDNESDAY IS LOWER CONFIDENCE...BUT LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THIS
MORNING IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP A COOL SFC AIRMASS
RECENTLY DEPOSITED IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGRESSING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 1000-2000 FT AGL WITH AN EASTERLY WIND AT 5-10 KT.

RWI/FAY/RDU: CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO HIGH-END MVFR OR LOW-
END VFR (2500-3500 FT AGL) BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE THE CAD WEDGE
WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT PROGRESSING WESTWARD TO THE HWY 1
CORRIDOR. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR AND
PERHAPS LIFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

INT/GSO: FURTHER NW WHERE THE CAD WEDGE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE...MVFR TO BORDERLINE IFR CEILINGS (~1000 FT AGL) ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL TODAY...WITH FURTHER DETERIORATION TO LIFR (CEILINGS 200-
400 FT AGL) LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
AND POSSIBLY VFR DURING THE DAY THU AS A WARM SECTOR BECOMES MORE
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER CENTRAL NC...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
TAKE LONGER TO IMPROVE AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS AND MAY REMAIN SUB-
VFR THE ENTIRE DAY. ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY TERMINAL THU AFT/EVE INTO THU NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. OVERCAST MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN
EARLY FRI MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERSISTING THROUGH THE
DAY AT EASTERN TERMINALS...BEFORE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND
ALLOWS IMPROVEMENT FRI NIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 251045
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TEMPORARILY STALL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACK NE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL DIG SE INTO THE LOWER MIDWEST
LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES: CHALLENGING FORECAST. COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE BACKDOOR FRONT HAS ALREADY DROPPED TEMPS TO ~45F IN THE NE
COASTAL PLAIN...AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 40S
VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE BY SUNRISE...PERHAPS NEAR 50F IN THE FAR SW
PIEDMONT. OVERCAST CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 2 KFT HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC...IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP
THE COOLER NEAR-SFC AIRMASS CURRENTLY ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE STRONGEST...
AND THE CAD WEDGE IS UNLIKELY TO BREAK IN THE NW PIEDMONT... ESP
GIVEN LITTLE OR NO SYNOPTIC PUSH TO THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE GRADUALLY WEST/NW TOWARD THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT TO LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SE
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE CAD EROSION WILL OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE. EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS IN THE TRIAD OVERNIGHT...
PERHAPS RISING A FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S WEST OF HWY 1 TO LOWER/MID 60S
EAST AND ESP SE OF HWY 1.

PRECIP TODAY: WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES...UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE CONFINED TO
CYCLONIC SHEAR VORTICITY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A ~90 KT JET
STREAK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A RESULT...FORCING WILL
LARGELY BE CONFINED TO LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TODAY...STRONGEST IN
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE INCREASINGLY RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE SE COAST
/ATLANTIC/. A MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EMANATING FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH SPC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-7.5 C/KM
OVER WESTERN NC AT 08Z. WITH A CAD WEDGE IN PLACE...THIS FEATURE
WILL SERVE AS AN EFFECTIVE CAP UNTIL SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
WARMING/MOISTENING CAN BE ACHIEVED. H85 MOISTENING BENEATH THE
MODIFIED EML OVER THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON MAY YIELD
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG (MUCAPE) BY
21Z...AND SFC MOISTENING IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BE SUFFICIENT
TO YIELD 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. LOW-LEVEL WAA AND CYCLONIC SHEAR
VORTICITY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD
ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/
INTENSITY IS LOW GIVEN A LACK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY /DPVA/. THOUGH
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AND ISOLD
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
LARGELY BE CONFINED TO WEAK/SHALLOW CONVERGENCE UNLIKELY TO OVERCOME
THE MID-LEVEL CAP.

PRECIP TONIGHT: LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
CENTRAL NC TONIGHT AS A ~30 KT LLJ ADVECTS AN INCREASINGLY
WARM/MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS BENEATH THE MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER IN PLACE. FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS INTO THE PLAINS...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES TO TRACK INTO THE REGION...
THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES ARE PROGGED AT THIS TIME. MOISTENING
WILL NO DOUBT RESULT IN MARGINAL NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH WITH
SUCH A DRY AIRMASS AT/ABOVE H7...COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE DOES INDEED
INDICATE MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT.

SEVERE: IF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND DEEP-LAYER FORCING ARE
SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE DEEP ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH
AN ENHANCED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF
REALIZING SUCH A SCENARIO IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MENTION OUTSIDE
OF THIS DISCUSSION. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THE CAD WEDGE TO ERODE THU MORNING TO EARLY THU AFTERNOON AS
A SFC LOW TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
ESTABLISHING A WARM SECTOR OVER MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF CENTRAL NC.
WITH THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION ALREADY NORTH OF THE REGION AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL /SW/ FLOW ALOFT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ON THE
WEAK SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON... UNTIL THE
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SFC COLD
FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THU AFT/EVE INTO THU NIGHT. EXPECT
A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH 18Z THU ASIDE FROM LINGERING DRIZZLE
PRIOR TO WEDGE EROSION...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEST-EAST LATE THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT AS THE
FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT. OUTSIDE OF
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...THUNDER APPEARS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN
UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND DPVA ATTENDANT THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT /WARM SECTOR/.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE NW
PIEDMONT WHERE LOWER 70S APPEAR MORE LIKELY. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL
DEPEND ENTIRELY ON THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE LOWER/MID 60S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME
WILL INDICATE TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S IN THE TRIAD BY SUNRISE
FRI...BUT REMAINING STEADY ELSEWHERE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE OR MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY TO OFFSET THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED INSOLATION. LINGERING ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS
DRIVEN BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH MID
DAY. THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
BY ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE FORCED BY A TRAILING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT LINGERING MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS ABOVE THE MIXING LEVEL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.
LINGERING CLOUD COVERAGE AND OVERNIGHT MIXING WILL FORTUNATELY AID
IN SOFTENING THE TEMPERATURE CRASH FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FALL NEARLY 100 METERS (25-30 DEGREES BY RULE OF THUMB)
IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING MID TO UPPER 30S...AND
WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND WITH A WARY EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY THAT
CLEARER/CALMER CONDITIONS MIGHT ALLOW US TO RADIATE LOWER.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND HIGHS WILL
STALL IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TO LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OFFSETS INCREASED SUNSHINE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN...RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR IDEAL ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS DAWN MINS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S NORTH TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE SOUTH. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS SUNDAY UNDER STRONG SUN AND NEUTRAL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...AND HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S.

WE HAVE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND SLOWLY RISING H5 HEIGHTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY TO INITIATE A MODERATING TREND IN THE TEMPS. A
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
SQUEEZED OUT BY THIS SYSTEM...THEY WOULD BE LIGHT AS ITS LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRECIPITATED OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW WITH HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY REACHING THE 60S AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM 40 TO 45.
WEDNESDAY IS LOWER CONFIDENCE...BUT LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THIS
MORNING IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP A COOL SFC AIRMASS
RECENTLY DEPOSITED IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGRESSING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 1000-2000 FT AGL WITH AN EASTERLY WIND AT 5-10 KT.

RWI/FAY/RDU: CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO HIGH-END MVFR OR LOW-
END VFR (2500-3500 FT AGL) BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE THE CAD WEDGE
WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT PROGRESSING WESTWARD TO THE HWY 1
CORRIDOR. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR AND
PERHAPS LIFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

INT/GSO: FURTHER NW WHERE THE CAD WEDGE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE...MVFR TO BORDERLINE IFR CEILINGS (~1000 FT AGL) ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL TODAY...WITH FURTHER DETERIORATION TO LIFR (CEILINGS 200-
400 FT AGL) LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
AND POSSIBLY VFR DURING THE DAY THU AS A WARM SECTOR BECOMES MORE
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER CENTRAL NC...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
TAKE LONGER TO IMPROVE AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS AND MAY REMAIN SUB-
VFR THE ENTIRE DAY. ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY TERMINAL THU AFT/EVE INTO THU NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. OVERCAST MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN
EARLY FRI MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERSISTING THROUGH THE
DAY AT EASTERN TERMINALS...BEFORE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND
ALLOWS IMPROVEMENT FRI NIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 251045
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TEMPORARILY STALL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACK NE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL DIG SE INTO THE LOWER MIDWEST
LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES: CHALLENGING FORECAST. COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE BACKDOOR FRONT HAS ALREADY DROPPED TEMPS TO ~45F IN THE NE
COASTAL PLAIN...AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 40S
VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE BY SUNRISE...PERHAPS NEAR 50F IN THE FAR SW
PIEDMONT. OVERCAST CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 2 KFT HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC...IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP
THE COOLER NEAR-SFC AIRMASS CURRENTLY ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE STRONGEST...
AND THE CAD WEDGE IS UNLIKELY TO BREAK IN THE NW PIEDMONT... ESP
GIVEN LITTLE OR NO SYNOPTIC PUSH TO THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE GRADUALLY WEST/NW TOWARD THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT TO LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SE
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE CAD EROSION WILL OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE. EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS IN THE TRIAD OVERNIGHT...
PERHAPS RISING A FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S WEST OF HWY 1 TO LOWER/MID 60S
EAST AND ESP SE OF HWY 1.

PRECIP TODAY: WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES...UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE CONFINED TO
CYCLONIC SHEAR VORTICITY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A ~90 KT JET
STREAK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A RESULT...FORCING WILL
LARGELY BE CONFINED TO LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TODAY...STRONGEST IN
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE INCREASINGLY RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE SE COAST
/ATLANTIC/. A MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EMANATING FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH SPC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-7.5 C/KM
OVER WESTERN NC AT 08Z. WITH A CAD WEDGE IN PLACE...THIS FEATURE
WILL SERVE AS AN EFFECTIVE CAP UNTIL SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
WARMING/MOISTENING CAN BE ACHIEVED. H85 MOISTENING BENEATH THE
MODIFIED EML OVER THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON MAY YIELD
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG (MUCAPE) BY
21Z...AND SFC MOISTENING IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BE SUFFICIENT
TO YIELD 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. LOW-LEVEL WAA AND CYCLONIC SHEAR
VORTICITY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD
ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/
INTENSITY IS LOW GIVEN A LACK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY /DPVA/. THOUGH
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AND ISOLD
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
LARGELY BE CONFINED TO WEAK/SHALLOW CONVERGENCE UNLIKELY TO OVERCOME
THE MID-LEVEL CAP.

PRECIP TONIGHT: LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
CENTRAL NC TONIGHT AS A ~30 KT LLJ ADVECTS AN INCREASINGLY
WARM/MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS BENEATH THE MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER IN PLACE. FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS INTO THE PLAINS...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES TO TRACK INTO THE REGION...
THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES ARE PROGGED AT THIS TIME. MOISTENING
WILL NO DOUBT RESULT IN MARGINAL NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH WITH
SUCH A DRY AIRMASS AT/ABOVE H7...COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE DOES INDEED
INDICATE MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT.

SEVERE: IF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND DEEP-LAYER FORCING ARE
SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE DEEP ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH
AN ENHANCED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF
REALIZING SUCH A SCENARIO IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MENTION OUTSIDE
OF THIS DISCUSSION. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THE CAD WEDGE TO ERODE THU MORNING TO EARLY THU AFTERNOON AS
A SFC LOW TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
ESTABLISHING A WARM SECTOR OVER MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF CENTRAL NC.
WITH THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION ALREADY NORTH OF THE REGION AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL /SW/ FLOW ALOFT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ON THE
WEAK SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON... UNTIL THE
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SFC COLD
FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THU AFT/EVE INTO THU NIGHT. EXPECT
A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH 18Z THU ASIDE FROM LINGERING DRIZZLE
PRIOR TO WEDGE EROSION...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEST-EAST LATE THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT AS THE
FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT. OUTSIDE OF
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...THUNDER APPEARS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN
UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND DPVA ATTENDANT THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT /WARM SECTOR/.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE NW
PIEDMONT WHERE LOWER 70S APPEAR MORE LIKELY. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL
DEPEND ENTIRELY ON THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE LOWER/MID 60S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME
WILL INDICATE TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S IN THE TRIAD BY SUNRISE
FRI...BUT REMAINING STEADY ELSEWHERE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE OR MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY TO OFFSET THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED INSOLATION. LINGERING ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS
DRIVEN BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH MID
DAY. THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
BY ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE FORCED BY A TRAILING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT LINGERING MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS ABOVE THE MIXING LEVEL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.
LINGERING CLOUD COVERAGE AND OVERNIGHT MIXING WILL FORTUNATELY AID
IN SOFTENING THE TEMPERATURE CRASH FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FALL NEARLY 100 METERS (25-30 DEGREES BY RULE OF THUMB)
IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING MID TO UPPER 30S...AND
WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND WITH A WARY EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY THAT
CLEARER/CALMER CONDITIONS MIGHT ALLOW US TO RADIATE LOWER.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND HIGHS WILL
STALL IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TO LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OFFSETS INCREASED SUNSHINE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN...RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR IDEAL ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS DAWN MINS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S NORTH TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE SOUTH. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS SUNDAY UNDER STRONG SUN AND NEUTRAL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...AND HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S.

WE HAVE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND SLOWLY RISING H5 HEIGHTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY TO INITIATE A MODERATING TREND IN THE TEMPS. A
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
SQUEEZED OUT BY THIS SYSTEM...THEY WOULD BE LIGHT AS ITS LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRECIPITATED OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW WITH HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY REACHING THE 60S AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM 40 TO 45.
WEDNESDAY IS LOWER CONFIDENCE...BUT LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THIS
MORNING IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP A COOL SFC AIRMASS
RECENTLY DEPOSITED IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGRESSING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 1000-2000 FT AGL WITH AN EASTERLY WIND AT 5-10 KT.

RWI/FAY/RDU: CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO HIGH-END MVFR OR LOW-
END VFR (2500-3500 FT AGL) BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE THE CAD WEDGE
WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT PROGRESSING WESTWARD TO THE HWY 1
CORRIDOR. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR AND
PERHAPS LIFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

INT/GSO: FURTHER NW WHERE THE CAD WEDGE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE...MVFR TO BORDERLINE IFR CEILINGS (~1000 FT AGL) ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL TODAY...WITH FURTHER DETERIORATION TO LIFR (CEILINGS 200-
400 FT AGL) LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
AND POSSIBLY VFR DURING THE DAY THU AS A WARM SECTOR BECOMES MORE
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER CENTRAL NC...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
TAKE LONGER TO IMPROVE AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS AND MAY REMAIN SUB-
VFR THE ENTIRE DAY. ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY TERMINAL THU AFT/EVE INTO THU NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. OVERCAST MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN
EARLY FRI MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERSISTING THROUGH THE
DAY AT EASTERN TERMINALS...BEFORE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND
ALLOWS IMPROVEMENT FRI NIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251045
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TEMPORARILY STALL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACK NE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL DIG SE INTO THE LOWER MIDWEST
LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES: CHALLENGING FORECAST. COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE BACKDOOR FRONT HAS ALREADY DROPPED TEMPS TO ~45F IN THE NE
COASTAL PLAIN...AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 40S
VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE BY SUNRISE...PERHAPS NEAR 50F IN THE FAR SW
PIEDMONT. OVERCAST CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 2 KFT HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC...IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP
THE COOLER NEAR-SFC AIRMASS CURRENTLY ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE STRONGEST...
AND THE CAD WEDGE IS UNLIKELY TO BREAK IN THE NW PIEDMONT... ESP
GIVEN LITTLE OR NO SYNOPTIC PUSH TO THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE GRADUALLY WEST/NW TOWARD THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT TO LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SE
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE CAD EROSION WILL OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE. EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS IN THE TRIAD OVERNIGHT...
PERHAPS RISING A FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S WEST OF HWY 1 TO LOWER/MID 60S
EAST AND ESP SE OF HWY 1.

PRECIP TODAY: WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES...UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE CONFINED TO
CYCLONIC SHEAR VORTICITY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A ~90 KT JET
STREAK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A RESULT...FORCING WILL
LARGELY BE CONFINED TO LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TODAY...STRONGEST IN
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE INCREASINGLY RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE SE COAST
/ATLANTIC/. A MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EMANATING FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH SPC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-7.5 C/KM
OVER WESTERN NC AT 08Z. WITH A CAD WEDGE IN PLACE...THIS FEATURE
WILL SERVE AS AN EFFECTIVE CAP UNTIL SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
WARMING/MOISTENING CAN BE ACHIEVED. H85 MOISTENING BENEATH THE
MODIFIED EML OVER THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON MAY YIELD
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG (MUCAPE) BY
21Z...AND SFC MOISTENING IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BE SUFFICIENT
TO YIELD 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. LOW-LEVEL WAA AND CYCLONIC SHEAR
VORTICITY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD
ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/
INTENSITY IS LOW GIVEN A LACK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY /DPVA/. THOUGH
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AND ISOLD
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
LARGELY BE CONFINED TO WEAK/SHALLOW CONVERGENCE UNLIKELY TO OVERCOME
THE MID-LEVEL CAP.

PRECIP TONIGHT: LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
CENTRAL NC TONIGHT AS A ~30 KT LLJ ADVECTS AN INCREASINGLY
WARM/MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS BENEATH THE MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER IN PLACE. FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS INTO THE PLAINS...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES TO TRACK INTO THE REGION...
THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES ARE PROGGED AT THIS TIME. MOISTENING
WILL NO DOUBT RESULT IN MARGINAL NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH WITH
SUCH A DRY AIRMASS AT/ABOVE H7...COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE DOES INDEED
INDICATE MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT.

SEVERE: IF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND DEEP-LAYER FORCING ARE
SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE DEEP ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH
AN ENHANCED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...THOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF
REALIZING SUCH A SCENARIO IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MENTION OUTSIDE
OF THIS DISCUSSION. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THE CAD WEDGE TO ERODE THU MORNING TO EARLY THU AFTERNOON AS
A SFC LOW TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
ESTABLISHING A WARM SECTOR OVER MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF CENTRAL NC.
WITH THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION ALREADY NORTH OF THE REGION AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL /SW/ FLOW ALOFT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ON THE
WEAK SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON... UNTIL THE
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SFC COLD
FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THU AFT/EVE INTO THU NIGHT. EXPECT
A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH 18Z THU ASIDE FROM LINGERING DRIZZLE
PRIOR TO WEDGE EROSION...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEST-EAST LATE THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT AS THE
FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT. OUTSIDE OF
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...THUNDER APPEARS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN
UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND DPVA ATTENDANT THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT /WARM SECTOR/.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE NW
PIEDMONT WHERE LOWER 70S APPEAR MORE LIKELY. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL
DEPEND ENTIRELY ON THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE LOWER/MID 60S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME
WILL INDICATE TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S IN THE TRIAD BY SUNRISE
FRI...BUT REMAINING STEADY ELSEWHERE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE OR MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY TO OFFSET THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED INSOLATION. LINGERING ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS
DRIVEN BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH MID
DAY. THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
BY ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE FORCED BY A TRAILING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT LINGERING MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS ABOVE THE MIXING LEVEL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.
LINGERING CLOUD COVERAGE AND OVERNIGHT MIXING WILL FORTUNATELY AID
IN SOFTENING THE TEMPERATURE CRASH FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FALL NEARLY 100 METERS (25-30 DEGREES BY RULE OF THUMB)
IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING MID TO UPPER 30S...AND
WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND WITH A WARY EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY THAT
CLEARER/CALMER CONDITIONS MIGHT ALLOW US TO RADIATE LOWER.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND HIGHS WILL
STALL IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TO LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OFFSETS INCREASED SUNSHINE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN...RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR IDEAL ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS DAWN MINS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S NORTH TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE SOUTH. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS SUNDAY UNDER STRONG SUN AND NEUTRAL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...AND HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S.

WE HAVE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND SLOWLY RISING H5 HEIGHTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY TO INITIATE A MODERATING TREND IN THE TEMPS. A
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
SQUEEZED OUT BY THIS SYSTEM...THEY WOULD BE LIGHT AS ITS LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRECIPITATED OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW WITH HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY REACHING THE 60S AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM 40 TO 45.
WEDNESDAY IS LOWER CONFIDENCE...BUT LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THIS
MORNING IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP A COOL SFC AIRMASS
RECENTLY DEPOSITED IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGRESSING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 1000-2000 FT AGL WITH AN EASTERLY WIND AT 5-10 KT.

RWI/FAY/RDU: CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO HIGH-END MVFR OR LOW-
END VFR (2500-3500 FT AGL) BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE THE CAD WEDGE
WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT PROGRESSING WESTWARD TO THE HWY 1
CORRIDOR. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR AND
PERHAPS LIFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

INT/GSO: FURTHER NW WHERE THE CAD WEDGE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE...MVFR TO BORDERLINE IFR CEILINGS (~1000 FT AGL) ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL TODAY...WITH FURTHER DETERIORATION TO LIFR (CEILINGS 200-
400 FT AGL) LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
AND POSSIBLY VFR DURING THE DAY THU AS A WARM SECTOR BECOMES MORE
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER CENTRAL NC...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
TAKE LONGER TO IMPROVE AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS AND MAY REMAIN SUB-
VFR THE ENTIRE DAY. ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY TERMINAL THU AFT/EVE INTO THU NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. OVERCAST MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN
EARLY FRI MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERSISTING THROUGH THE
DAY AT EASTERN TERMINALS...BEFORE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND
ALLOWS IMPROVEMENT FRI NIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 250911
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
511 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TEMPORARILY STALL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACK NE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL DIG SE INTO THE LOWER MIDWEST
LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES: CHALLENGING FORECAST. COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE BACKDOOR FRONT HAS ALREADY DROPPED TEMPS TO ~45F IN THE NE
COASTAL PLAIN...AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 40S
VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE BY SUNRISE...PERHAPS NEAR 50F IN THE FAR SW
PIEDMONT. OVERCAST CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 2 KFT HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC...IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP
THE COOLER NEAR-SFC AIRMASS CURRENTLY ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE STRONGEST...
AND THE CAD WEDGE IS UNLIKELY TO BREAK IN THE NW PIEDMONT... ESP
GIVEN LITTLE OR NO SYNOPTIC PUSH TO THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE GRADUALLY WEST/NW TOWARD THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT TO LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SE
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE CAD EROSION WILL OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE. EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS IN THE TRIAD OVERNIGHT...
PERHAPS RISING A FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S WEST OF HWY 1 TO LOWER/MID 60S
EAST AND ESP SE OF HWY 1.

PRECIP TODAY: WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES...UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE CONFINED TO
CYCLONIC SHEAR VORTICITY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A ~90 KT JET
STREAK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A RESULT...FORCING WILL
LARGELY BE CONFINED TO LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TODAY...STRONGEST IN
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE INCREASINGLY RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE SE COAST
/ATLANTIC/. A MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EMANATING FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH SPC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-7.5 C/KM
OVER WESTERN NC AT 08Z. WITH A CAD WEDGE IN PLACE...THIS FEATURE
WILL SERVE AS AN EFFECTIVE CAP UNTIL SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
WARMING/MOISTENING CAN BE ACHIEVED. H85 MOISTENING BENEATH THE
MODIFIED EML OVER THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON MAY YIELD
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG (MUCAPE) BY
21Z...AND SFC MOISTENING IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BE SUFFICIENT
TO YIELD 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. LOW-LEVEL WAA AND CYCLONIC SHEAR
VORTICITY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD
ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/
INTENSITY IS LOW GIVEN A LACK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY /DPVA/. THOUGH
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AND ISOLD
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
LARGELY BE CONFINED TO WEAK/SHALLOW CONVERGENCE UNLIKELY TO OVERCOME
THE MID-LEVEL CAP.

PRECIP TONIGHT: LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
CENTRAL NC TONIGHT AS A ~30 KT LLJ ADVECTS AN INCREASINGLY
WARM/MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS BENEATH THE MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER IN PLACE. FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS INTO THE PLAINS...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES TO TRACK INTO THE REGION...
THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES ARE PROGGED AT THIS TIME. MOISTENING
WILL NO DOUBT RESULT IN MARGINAL NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH WITH
SUCH A DRY AIRMASS AT/ABOVE H7...COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE DOES INDEED
INDICATE MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT.

SEVERE: IF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND DEEP-LAYER FORCING ARE
SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE DEEP ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH
AN ENHANCED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THU AND THU NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THE CAD WEDGE TO ERODE THU MORNING TO EARLY THU AFTERNOON AS
A SFC LOW TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
ESTABLISHING A WARM SECTOR OVER MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF CENTRAL NC.
WITH THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION ALREADY NORTH OF THE REGION AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL /SW/ FLOW ALOFT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ON THE
WEAK SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON... UNTIL THE
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SFC COLD
FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THU AFT/EVE INTO THU NIGHT. EXPECT
A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH 18Z THU ASIDE FROM LINGERING DRIZZLE
PRIOR TO WEDGE EROSION...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEST-EAST LATE THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT AS THE
FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT. OUTSIDE OF
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...THUNDER APPEARS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN
UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND DPVA ATTENDANT THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT /WARM SECTOR/.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE NW
PIEDMONT WHERE LOWER 70S APPEAR MORE LIKELY. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL
DEPEND ENTIRELY ON THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE LOWER/MID 60S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME
WILL INDICATE TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S IN THE TRIAD BY SUNRISE
FRI...BUT REMAINING STEADY ELSEWHERE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE OR MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY TO OFFSET THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED INSOLATION. LINGERING ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS
DRIVEN BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH MID
DAY. THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
BY ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE FORCED BY A TRAILING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT LINGERING MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS ABOVE THE MIXING LEVEL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.
LINGERING CLOUD COVERAGE AND OVERNIGHT MIXING WILL FORTUNATELY AID
IN SOFTENING THE TEMPERATURE CRASH FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FALL NEARLY 100 METERS (25-30 DEGREES BY RULE OF THUMB)
IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING MID TO UPPER 30S...AND
WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND WITH A WARY EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY THAT
CLEARER/CALMER CONDITIONS MIGHT ALLOW US TO RADIATE LOWER.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND HIGHS WILL
STALL IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TO LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OFFSETS INCREASED SUNSHINE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN...RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR IDEAL ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS DAWN MINS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S NORTH TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE SOUTH. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS SUNDAY UNDER STRONG SUN AND NEUTRAL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...AND HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S.

WE HAVE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND SLOWLY RISING H5 HEIGHTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY TO INITIATE A MODERATING TREND IN THE TEMPS. A
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
SQUEEZED OUT BY THIS SYSTEM...THEY WOULD BE LIGHT AS ITS LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRECIPITATED OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW WITH HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY REACHING THE 60S AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM 40 TO 45.
WEDNESDAY IS LOWER CONFIDENCE...BUT LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: EXPECT CEILINGS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AT ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP A
COOL SFC AIRMASS RECENTLY DEPOSITED IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 700-1200 FT AGL AT ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z...
WITH AN EASTERLY WIND AT 5-10 KT.

RWI/FAY/RDU: CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO HIGH-END MVFR OR LOW-
END VFR (2500-3500 FT AGL) BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE THE CAD WEDGE
WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT PROGRESSING WESTWARD TO THE HWY 1
CORRIDOR. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BY THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.

INT/GSO: FURTHER NW WHERE THE CAD WEDGE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS (~1000 FT AGL) ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...WITH FURTHER DETERIORATION TO LIFR
(CEILINGS 200-400 FT AGL) LIKELY BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
AND POSSIBLY VFR DURING THE DAY THU AS A WARM SECTOR BECOMES MORE
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER CENTRAL NC...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
TAKE LONGER TO IMPROVE AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS AND MAY REMAIN SUB-
VFR THE ENTIRE DAY. ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY TERMINAL THU AFT/EVE INTO THU NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. OVERCAST MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN
EARLY FRI MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERSISTING THROUGH THE
DAY AT EASTERN TERMINALS...BEFORE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND
ALLOWS IMPROVEMENT FRI NIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 250911
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
511 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TEMPORARILY STALL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW TRACK NE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL DIG SE INTO THE LOWER MIDWEST
LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES: CHALLENGING FORECAST. COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE BACKDOOR FRONT HAS ALREADY DROPPED TEMPS TO ~45F IN THE NE
COASTAL PLAIN...AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 40S
VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE BY SUNRISE...PERHAPS NEAR 50F IN THE FAR SW
PIEDMONT. OVERCAST CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 2 KFT HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC...IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP
THE COOLER NEAR-SFC AIRMASS CURRENTLY ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE THE STRONGEST...
AND THE CAD WEDGE IS UNLIKELY TO BREAK IN THE NW PIEDMONT... ESP
GIVEN LITTLE OR NO SYNOPTIC PUSH TO THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE GRADUALLY WEST/NW TOWARD THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT TO LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SE
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE CAD EROSION WILL OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE. EXPECT NEAR STEADY TEMPS IN THE TRIAD OVERNIGHT...
PERHAPS RISING A FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S WEST OF HWY 1 TO LOWER/MID 60S
EAST AND ESP SE OF HWY 1.

PRECIP TODAY: WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES...UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE CONFINED TO
CYCLONIC SHEAR VORTICITY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A ~90 KT JET
STREAK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A RESULT...FORCING WILL
LARGELY BE CONFINED TO LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TODAY...STRONGEST IN
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE INCREASINGLY RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE SE COAST
/ATLANTIC/. A MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EMANATING FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH SPC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-7.5 C/KM
OVER WESTERN NC AT 08Z. WITH A CAD WEDGE IN PLACE...THIS FEATURE
WILL SERVE AS AN EFFECTIVE CAP UNTIL SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
WARMING/MOISTENING CAN BE ACHIEVED. H85 MOISTENING BENEATH THE
MODIFIED EML OVER THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON MAY YIELD
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG (MUCAPE) BY
21Z...AND SFC MOISTENING IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN MAY BE SUFFICIENT
TO YIELD 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. LOW-LEVEL WAA AND CYCLONIC SHEAR
VORTICITY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD
ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/
INTENSITY IS LOW GIVEN A LACK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY /DPVA/. THOUGH
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN AND ISOLD
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
LARGELY BE CONFINED TO WEAK/SHALLOW CONVERGENCE UNLIKELY TO OVERCOME
THE MID-LEVEL CAP.

PRECIP TONIGHT: LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
CENTRAL NC TONIGHT AS A ~30 KT LLJ ADVECTS AN INCREASINGLY
WARM/MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS BENEATH THE MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER IN PLACE. FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS INTO THE PLAINS...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES TO TRACK INTO THE REGION...
THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES ARE PROGGED AT THIS TIME. MOISTENING
WILL NO DOUBT RESULT IN MARGINAL NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH WITH
SUCH A DRY AIRMASS AT/ABOVE H7...COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE DOES INDEED
INDICATE MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT.

SEVERE: IF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND DEEP-LAYER FORCING ARE
SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE DEEP ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH
AN ENHANCED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THU AND THU NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT THE CAD WEDGE TO ERODE THU MORNING TO EARLY THU AFTERNOON AS
A SFC LOW TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
ESTABLISHING A WARM SECTOR OVER MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF CENTRAL NC.
WITH THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION ALREADY NORTH OF THE REGION AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL /SW/ FLOW ALOFT...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ON THE
WEAK SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON... UNTIL THE
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THE SFC COLD
FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE THU AFT/EVE INTO THU NIGHT. EXPECT
A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH 18Z THU ASIDE FROM LINGERING DRIZZLE
PRIOR TO WEDGE EROSION...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEST-EAST LATE THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT AS THE
FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT. OUTSIDE OF
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...THUNDER APPEARS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN
UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND DPVA ATTENDANT THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT /WARM SECTOR/.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE NW
PIEDMONT WHERE LOWER 70S APPEAR MORE LIKELY. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL
DEPEND ENTIRELY ON THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE LOWER/MID 60S IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME
WILL INDICATE TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S IN THE TRIAD BY SUNRISE
FRI...BUT REMAINING STEADY ELSEWHERE. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE OR MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY TO OFFSET THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED INSOLATION. LINGERING ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS
DRIVEN BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH MID
DAY. THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
BY ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE FORCED BY A TRAILING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT LINGERING MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS ABOVE THE MIXING LEVEL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.
LINGERING CLOUD COVERAGE AND OVERNIGHT MIXING WILL FORTUNATELY AID
IN SOFTENING THE TEMPERATURE CRASH FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FALL NEARLY 100 METERS (25-30 DEGREES BY RULE OF THUMB)
IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING MID TO UPPER 30S...AND
WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND WITH A WARY EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY THAT
CLEARER/CALMER CONDITIONS MIGHT ALLOW US TO RADIATE LOWER.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND HIGHS WILL
STALL IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TO LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OFFSETS INCREASED SUNSHINE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN...RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR IDEAL ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS DAWN MINS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S NORTH TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE SOUTH. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS SUNDAY UNDER STRONG SUN AND NEUTRAL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...AND HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S.

WE HAVE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND SLOWLY RISING H5 HEIGHTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY TO INITIATE A MODERATING TREND IN THE TEMPS. A
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
SQUEEZED OUT BY THIS SYSTEM...THEY WOULD BE LIGHT AS ITS LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRECIPITATED OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW WITH HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY REACHING THE 60S AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM 40 TO 45.
WEDNESDAY IS LOWER CONFIDENCE...BUT LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: EXPECT CEILINGS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AT ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP A
COOL SFC AIRMASS RECENTLY DEPOSITED IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 700-1200 FT AGL AT ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z...
WITH AN EASTERLY WIND AT 5-10 KT.

RWI/FAY/RDU: CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO HIGH-END MVFR OR LOW-
END VFR (2500-3500 FT AGL) BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE THE CAD WEDGE
WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT PROGRESSING WESTWARD TO THE HWY 1
CORRIDOR. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BY THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.

INT/GSO: FURTHER NW WHERE THE CAD WEDGE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS (~1000 FT AGL) ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...WITH FURTHER DETERIORATION TO LIFR
(CEILINGS 200-400 FT AGL) LIKELY BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
AND POSSIBLY VFR DURING THE DAY THU AS A WARM SECTOR BECOMES MORE
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER CENTRAL NC...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
TAKE LONGER TO IMPROVE AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS AND MAY REMAIN SUB-
VFR THE ENTIRE DAY. ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY TERMINAL THU AFT/EVE INTO THU NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. OVERCAST MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN
EARLY FRI MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERSISTING THROUGH THE
DAY AT EASTERN TERMINALS...BEFORE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND
ALLOWS IMPROVEMENT FRI NIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 250802
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
400 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TEMPORARILY STALL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE TRIAD...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S NE TO
LOW 50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...

IN SITU CAD WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THIS WILL SET UP A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING GRADIENT WITH HIGHS ONLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE TRIAD BUT POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURE COULD COME IN TO PLAY LATER IN THE DAY IN REGARDS TO
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE OUT TO SEA...THE WEDGE FRONT WILL BREAK DOWN AND IN ITS PLACE
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF
OF THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS
CONCERNED...ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
WEST UNDER THE CAD REGIME...BUT LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE HIGH
SLIDES OUT TO SEA...MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CAPE IS TALL AND
SKINNY AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS BUT ANY
CAPPING THAT IS IN PLACE INITIALLY AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL WILL
EVENTUALLY ERODE OVERNIGHT...SETTING UP MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WIND
SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AS 40 KTS OR SO OF BULK
SHEAR IS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 6Z
THURSDAY. A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE CAD
BREAKS DOWN AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT WORKS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. THEREFORE NEAR STEADY TO SLIGHTLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WILL MORE RAPIDLY INCREASE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. LOWS LISTED IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S BUT AGAIN THIS WILL
OCCUR EARLIER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE OR MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY TO OFFSET THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED INSOLATION. LINGERING ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS
DRIVEN BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH MID
DAY. THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
BY ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE FORCED BY A TRAILING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT LINGERING MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS ABOVE THE MIXING LEVEL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.
LINGERING CLOUD COVERAGE AND OVERNIGHT MIXING WILL FORTUNATELY AID
IN SOFTENING THE TEMPERATURE CRASH FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FALL NEARLY 100 METERS (25-30 DEGREES BY RULE OF THUMB)
IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING MID TO UPPER 30S...AND
WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND WITH A WARY EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY THAT
CLEARER/CALMER CONDITIONS MIGHT ALLOW US TO RADIATE LOWER.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND HIGHS WILL
STALL IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TO LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OFFSETS INCREASED SUNSHINE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN...RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR IDEAL ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS DAWN MINS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S NORTH TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE SOUTH. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS SUNDAY UNDER STRONG SUN AND NEUTRAL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...AND HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S.

WE HAVE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND SLOWLY RISING H5 HEIGHTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY TO INITIATE A MODERATING TREND IN THE TEMPS. A
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
SQUEEZED OUT BY THIS SYSTEM...THEY WOULD BE LIGHT AS ITS LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRECIPITATED OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW WITH HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY REACHING THE 60S AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM 40 TO 45.
WEDNESDAY IS LOWER CONFIDENCE...BUT LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: EXPECT CEILINGS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AT ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP A
COOL SFC AIRMASS RECENTLY DEPOSITED IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 700-1200 FT AGL AT ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z...
WITH AN EASTERLY WIND AT 5-10 KT.

RWI/FAY/RDU: CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO HIGH-END MVFR OR LOW-
END VFR (2500-3500 FT AGL) BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE THE CAD WEDGE
WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT PROGRESSING WESTWARD TO THE HWY 1
CORRIDOR. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BY THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.

INT/GSO: FURTHER NW WHERE THE CAD WEDGE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS (~1000 FT AGL) ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...WITH FURTHER DETERIORATION TO LIFR
(CEILINGS 200-400 FT AGL) LIKELY BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
AND POSSIBLY VFR DURING THE DAY THU AS A WARM SECTOR BECOMES MORE
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER CENTRAL NC...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
TAKE LONGER TO IMPROVE AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS AND MAY REMAIN SUB-
VFR THE ENTIRE DAY. ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY TERMINAL THU AFT/EVE INTO THU NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. OVERCAST MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN
EARLY FRI MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERSISTING THROUGH THE
DAY AT EASTERN TERMINALS...BEFORE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND
ALLOWS IMPROVEMENT FRI NIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 250802
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
400 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TEMPORARILY STALL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE TRIAD...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S NE TO
LOW 50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...

IN SITU CAD WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THIS WILL SET UP A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING GRADIENT WITH HIGHS ONLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE TRIAD BUT POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURE COULD COME IN TO PLAY LATER IN THE DAY IN REGARDS TO
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE OUT TO SEA...THE WEDGE FRONT WILL BREAK DOWN AND IN ITS PLACE
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF
OF THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS
CONCERNED...ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
WEST UNDER THE CAD REGIME...BUT LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE HIGH
SLIDES OUT TO SEA...MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CAPE IS TALL AND
SKINNY AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS BUT ANY
CAPPING THAT IS IN PLACE INITIALLY AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL WILL
EVENTUALLY ERODE OVERNIGHT...SETTING UP MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WIND
SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AS 40 KTS OR SO OF BULK
SHEAR IS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 6Z
THURSDAY. A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE CAD
BREAKS DOWN AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT WORKS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. THEREFORE NEAR STEADY TO SLIGHTLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WILL MORE RAPIDLY INCREASE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. LOWS LISTED IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S BUT AGAIN THIS WILL
OCCUR EARLIER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE OR MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY TO OFFSET THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED INSOLATION. LINGERING ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS
DRIVEN BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LINGER IN THE EAST THROUGH MID
DAY. THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
BY ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE FORCED BY A TRAILING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT LINGERING MOISTURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS ABOVE THE MIXING LEVEL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHALLOW
CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S WEST TO UPPER 50S EAST.
LINGERING CLOUD COVERAGE AND OVERNIGHT MIXING WILL FORTUNATELY AID
IN SOFTENING THE TEMPERATURE CRASH FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FALL NEARLY 100 METERS (25-30 DEGREES BY RULE OF THUMB)
IN THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING MID TO UPPER 30S...AND
WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND WITH A WARY EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY THAT
CLEARER/CALMER CONDITIONS MIGHT ALLOW US TO RADIATE LOWER.

THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND HIGHS WILL
STALL IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TO LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OFFSETS INCREASED SUNSHINE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN...RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR IDEAL ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS DAWN MINS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S NORTH TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE SOUTH. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS SUNDAY UNDER STRONG SUN AND NEUTRAL
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...AND HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S.

WE HAVE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND SLOWLY RISING H5 HEIGHTS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY TO INITIATE A MODERATING TREND IN THE TEMPS. A
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
SQUEEZED OUT BY THIS SYSTEM...THEY WOULD BE LIGHT AS ITS LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRECIPITATED OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW WITH HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY REACHING THE 60S AFTER MORNING LOWS FROM 40 TO 45.
WEDNESDAY IS LOWER CONFIDENCE...BUT LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: EXPECT CEILINGS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AT ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP A
COOL SFC AIRMASS RECENTLY DEPOSITED IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 700-1200 FT AGL AT ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z...
WITH AN EASTERLY WIND AT 5-10 KT.

RWI/FAY/RDU: CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO HIGH-END MVFR OR LOW-
END VFR (2500-3500 FT AGL) BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE THE CAD WEDGE
WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT PROGRESSING WESTWARD TO THE HWY 1
CORRIDOR. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BY THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.

INT/GSO: FURTHER NW WHERE THE CAD WEDGE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS (~1000 FT AGL) ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...WITH FURTHER DETERIORATION TO LIFR
(CEILINGS 200-400 FT AGL) LIKELY BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
AND POSSIBLY VFR DURING THE DAY THU AS A WARM SECTOR BECOMES MORE
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER CENTRAL NC...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
TAKE LONGER TO IMPROVE AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS AND MAY REMAIN SUB-
VFR THE ENTIRE DAY. ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY TERMINAL THU AFT/EVE INTO THU NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. OVERCAST MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN
EARLY FRI MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERSISTING THROUGH THE
DAY AT EASTERN TERMINALS...BEFORE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND
ALLOWS IMPROVEMENT FRI NIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 250647
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
247 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TEMPORARILY STALL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE TRIAD...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S NE TO
LOW 50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...

IN SITU CAD WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THIS WILL SET UP A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING GRADIENT WITH HIGHS ONLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE TRIAD BUT POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURE COULD COME IN TO PLAY LATER IN THE DAY IN REGARDS TO
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE OUT TO SEA...THE WEDGE FRONT WILL BREAK DOWN AND IN ITS PLACE
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF
OF THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS
CONCERNED...ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
WEST UNDER THE CAD REGIME...BUT LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE HIGH
SLIDES OUT TO SEA...MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CAPE IS TALL AND
SKINNY AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS BUT ANY
CAPPING THAT IS IN PLACE INITIALLY AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL WILL
EVENTUALLY ERODE OVERNIGHT...SETTING UP MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WIND
SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AS 40 KTS OR SO OF BULK
SHEAR IS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 6Z
THURSDAY. A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE CAD
BREAKS DOWN AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT WORKS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. THEREFORE NEAR STEADY TO SLIGHTLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WILL MORE RAPIDLY INCREASE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. LOWS LISTED IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S BUT AGAIN THIS WILL
OCCUR EARLIER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

A DEEPENING MIDWEST TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST REACHING THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS
BY FRIDAY MORNING. NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STREAM OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM OFF THE SC COAST NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NC OWING TO LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING RESULTING
IN A GENERAL MINIMUM OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND EVENING HOURS THURSDAY AS THE REGION WILL BE IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS IN THE EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A LAGGING UPPER TROUGH TO THE
WEST. THE RESULT SHOULD BE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DESPITE A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES.  WARM ADVECTION AND THICKNESS
VALUES RISING INTO THE 1370-1380M RANGE SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 75-82
RANGE.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A LITTLE
MORE INSTABILITY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM IS
GENERALLY MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE GFS WITH COMPROMISE INSTABILITY
VALUES BETWEEN THE TWO IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT WITH LESS INSTABILITY TO THE
WEST. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT RATHER VIGOROUS WITH
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30-40KT RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEAR
KFAY AND AROUND 40 KTS IN THE NW PIEDMONT NEAR KGSO. IF CONVECTION
IS ABLE TO FIRE...IT INCREASINGLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. IN SHORT HAVE INCLUDED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST INCREASE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS CENTRAL NC BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION NEAR AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND THE
EXIT REGION OF A STOUT 150KT JET. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
NC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY FALL INTO THE 48-56
RANGE.

EXPECT LITTLE DAYTIME WARMING ON FRIDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SATURATION ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER. WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING TO WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS. CLOUDS AND A COOLER AIRMASS
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES
BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHILLY LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL ONLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT EVEN COLDER IN THE 30-35 RANGE.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE INTO THE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60 ON SUNDAY AND IN THE MID 60S ON MONDAY. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED BUT RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS...WHILE
DIFFERING ON TIMING...SUGGEST SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL OPT FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW BUT INCREASE CLOUD COVER. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: EXPECT CEILINGS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AT ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP A
COOL SFC AIRMASS RECENTLY DEPOSITED IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 700-1200 FT AGL AT ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z...
WITH AN EASTERLY WIND AT 5-10 KT.

RWI/FAY/RDU: CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO HIGH-END MVFR OR LOW-
END VFR (2500-3500 FT AGL) BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE THE CAD WEDGE
WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT PROGRESSING WESTWARD TO THE HWY 1
CORRIDOR. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BY THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.

INT/GSO: FURTHER NW WHERE THE CAD WEDGE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS (~1000 FT AGL) ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...WITH FURTHER DETERIORATION TO LIFR
(CEILINGS 200-400 FT AGL) LIKELY BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
AND POSSIBLY VFR DURING THE DAY THU AS A WARM SECTOR BECOMES MORE
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER CENTRAL NC...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
TAKE LONGER TO IMPROVE AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS AND MAY REMAIN SUB-
VFR THE ENTIRE DAY. ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY TERMINAL THU AFT/EVE INTO THU NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. OVERCAST MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN
EARLY FRI MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERSISTING THROUGH THE
DAY AT EASTERN TERMINALS...BEFORE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND
ALLOWS IMPROVEMENT FRI NIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 250647
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
247 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TEMPORARILY STALL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE TRIAD...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S NE TO
LOW 50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...

IN SITU CAD WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THIS WILL SET UP A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING GRADIENT WITH HIGHS ONLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE TRIAD BUT POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURE COULD COME IN TO PLAY LATER IN THE DAY IN REGARDS TO
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE OUT TO SEA...THE WEDGE FRONT WILL BREAK DOWN AND IN ITS PLACE
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF
OF THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS
CONCERNED...ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
WEST UNDER THE CAD REGIME...BUT LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE HIGH
SLIDES OUT TO SEA...MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CAPE IS TALL AND
SKINNY AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS BUT ANY
CAPPING THAT IS IN PLACE INITIALLY AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL WILL
EVENTUALLY ERODE OVERNIGHT...SETTING UP MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WIND
SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AS 40 KTS OR SO OF BULK
SHEAR IS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 6Z
THURSDAY. A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE CAD
BREAKS DOWN AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT WORKS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. THEREFORE NEAR STEADY TO SLIGHTLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WILL MORE RAPIDLY INCREASE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. LOWS LISTED IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S BUT AGAIN THIS WILL
OCCUR EARLIER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

A DEEPENING MIDWEST TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST REACHING THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS
BY FRIDAY MORNING. NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STREAM OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM OFF THE SC COAST NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NC OWING TO LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING RESULTING
IN A GENERAL MINIMUM OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND EVENING HOURS THURSDAY AS THE REGION WILL BE IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS IN THE EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A LAGGING UPPER TROUGH TO THE
WEST. THE RESULT SHOULD BE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DESPITE A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES.  WARM ADVECTION AND THICKNESS
VALUES RISING INTO THE 1370-1380M RANGE SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 75-82
RANGE.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A LITTLE
MORE INSTABILITY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM IS
GENERALLY MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE GFS WITH COMPROMISE INSTABILITY
VALUES BETWEEN THE TWO IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT WITH LESS INSTABILITY TO THE
WEST. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT RATHER VIGOROUS WITH
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30-40KT RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEAR
KFAY AND AROUND 40 KTS IN THE NW PIEDMONT NEAR KGSO. IF CONVECTION
IS ABLE TO FIRE...IT INCREASINGLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. IN SHORT HAVE INCLUDED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST INCREASE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS CENTRAL NC BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION NEAR AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND THE
EXIT REGION OF A STOUT 150KT JET. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
NC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY FALL INTO THE 48-56
RANGE.

EXPECT LITTLE DAYTIME WARMING ON FRIDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SATURATION ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER. WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING TO WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS. CLOUDS AND A COOLER AIRMASS
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES
BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHILLY LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL ONLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT EVEN COLDER IN THE 30-35 RANGE.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE INTO THE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60 ON SUNDAY AND IN THE MID 60S ON MONDAY. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED BUT RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS...WHILE
DIFFERING ON TIMING...SUGGEST SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL OPT FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW BUT INCREASE CLOUD COVER. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: EXPECT CEILINGS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AT ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP A
COOL SFC AIRMASS RECENTLY DEPOSITED IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 700-1200 FT AGL AT ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z...
WITH AN EASTERLY WIND AT 5-10 KT.

RWI/FAY/RDU: CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO HIGH-END MVFR OR LOW-
END VFR (2500-3500 FT AGL) BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE THE CAD WEDGE
WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT PROGRESSING WESTWARD TO THE HWY 1
CORRIDOR. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BY THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.

INT/GSO: FURTHER NW WHERE THE CAD WEDGE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS (~1000 FT AGL) ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...WITH FURTHER DETERIORATION TO LIFR
(CEILINGS 200-400 FT AGL) LIKELY BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
AND POSSIBLY VFR DURING THE DAY THU AS A WARM SECTOR BECOMES MORE
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER CENTRAL NC...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
TAKE LONGER TO IMPROVE AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS AND MAY REMAIN SUB-
VFR THE ENTIRE DAY. ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY TERMINAL THU AFT/EVE INTO THU NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. OVERCAST MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN
EARLY FRI MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERSISTING THROUGH THE
DAY AT EASTERN TERMINALS...BEFORE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND
ALLOWS IMPROVEMENT FRI NIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 250647
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
247 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TEMPORARILY STALL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE TRIAD...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S NE TO
LOW 50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...

IN SITU CAD WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THIS WILL SET UP A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING GRADIENT WITH HIGHS ONLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE TRIAD BUT POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURE COULD COME IN TO PLAY LATER IN THE DAY IN REGARDS TO
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE OUT TO SEA...THE WEDGE FRONT WILL BREAK DOWN AND IN ITS PLACE
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF
OF THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS
CONCERNED...ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
WEST UNDER THE CAD REGIME...BUT LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE HIGH
SLIDES OUT TO SEA...MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CAPE IS TALL AND
SKINNY AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS BUT ANY
CAPPING THAT IS IN PLACE INITIALLY AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL WILL
EVENTUALLY ERODE OVERNIGHT...SETTING UP MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WIND
SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AS 40 KTS OR SO OF BULK
SHEAR IS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 6Z
THURSDAY. A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE CAD
BREAKS DOWN AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT WORKS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. THEREFORE NEAR STEADY TO SLIGHTLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WILL MORE RAPIDLY INCREASE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. LOWS LISTED IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S BUT AGAIN THIS WILL
OCCUR EARLIER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

A DEEPENING MIDWEST TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST REACHING THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS
BY FRIDAY MORNING. NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STREAM OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM OFF THE SC COAST NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NC OWING TO LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING RESULTING
IN A GENERAL MINIMUM OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND EVENING HOURS THURSDAY AS THE REGION WILL BE IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS IN THE EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A LAGGING UPPER TROUGH TO THE
WEST. THE RESULT SHOULD BE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DESPITE A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES.  WARM ADVECTION AND THICKNESS
VALUES RISING INTO THE 1370-1380M RANGE SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 75-82
RANGE.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A LITTLE
MORE INSTABILITY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM IS
GENERALLY MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE GFS WITH COMPROMISE INSTABILITY
VALUES BETWEEN THE TWO IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT WITH LESS INSTABILITY TO THE
WEST. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT RATHER VIGOROUS WITH
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30-40KT RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEAR
KFAY AND AROUND 40 KTS IN THE NW PIEDMONT NEAR KGSO. IF CONVECTION
IS ABLE TO FIRE...IT INCREASINGLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. IN SHORT HAVE INCLUDED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST INCREASE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS CENTRAL NC BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION NEAR AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND THE
EXIT REGION OF A STOUT 150KT JET. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
NC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY FALL INTO THE 48-56
RANGE.

EXPECT LITTLE DAYTIME WARMING ON FRIDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SATURATION ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER. WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING TO WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS. CLOUDS AND A COOLER AIRMASS
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES
BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHILLY LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL ONLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT EVEN COLDER IN THE 30-35 RANGE.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE INTO THE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60 ON SUNDAY AND IN THE MID 60S ON MONDAY. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED BUT RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS...WHILE
DIFFERING ON TIMING...SUGGEST SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL OPT FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW BUT INCREASE CLOUD COVER. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: EXPECT CEILINGS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AT ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP A
COOL SFC AIRMASS RECENTLY DEPOSITED IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 700-1200 FT AGL AT ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z...
WITH AN EASTERLY WIND AT 5-10 KT.

RWI/FAY/RDU: CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO HIGH-END MVFR OR LOW-
END VFR (2500-3500 FT AGL) BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE THE CAD WEDGE
WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT PROGRESSING WESTWARD TO THE HWY 1
CORRIDOR. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BY THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.

INT/GSO: FURTHER NW WHERE THE CAD WEDGE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS (~1000 FT AGL) ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...WITH FURTHER DETERIORATION TO LIFR
(CEILINGS 200-400 FT AGL) LIKELY BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
AND POSSIBLY VFR DURING THE DAY THU AS A WARM SECTOR BECOMES MORE
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER CENTRAL NC...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
TAKE LONGER TO IMPROVE AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS AND MAY REMAIN SUB-
VFR THE ENTIRE DAY. ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY TERMINAL THU AFT/EVE INTO THU NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. OVERCAST MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN
EARLY FRI MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERSISTING THROUGH THE
DAY AT EASTERN TERMINALS...BEFORE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND
ALLOWS IMPROVEMENT FRI NIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 250647
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
247 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TEMPORARILY STALL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE TRIAD...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S NE TO
LOW 50S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...

IN SITU CAD WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THIS WILL SET UP A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING GRADIENT WITH HIGHS ONLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE TRIAD BUT POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURE COULD COME IN TO PLAY LATER IN THE DAY IN REGARDS TO
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE OUT TO SEA...THE WEDGE FRONT WILL BREAK DOWN AND IN ITS PLACE
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF
OF THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS
CONCERNED...ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
WEST UNDER THE CAD REGIME...BUT LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE HIGH
SLIDES OUT TO SEA...MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CAPE IS TALL AND
SKINNY AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS BUT ANY
CAPPING THAT IS IN PLACE INITIALLY AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL WILL
EVENTUALLY ERODE OVERNIGHT...SETTING UP MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WIND
SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AS 40 KTS OR SO OF BULK
SHEAR IS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 6Z
THURSDAY. A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE CAD
BREAKS DOWN AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT WORKS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. THEREFORE NEAR STEADY TO SLIGHTLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WILL MORE RAPIDLY INCREASE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. LOWS LISTED IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S BUT AGAIN THIS WILL
OCCUR EARLIER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

A DEEPENING MIDWEST TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST REACHING THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS
BY FRIDAY MORNING. NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STREAM OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM OFF THE SC COAST NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NC OWING TO LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING RESULTING
IN A GENERAL MINIMUM OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND EVENING HOURS THURSDAY AS THE REGION WILL BE IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS IN THE EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A LAGGING UPPER TROUGH TO THE
WEST. THE RESULT SHOULD BE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DESPITE A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES.  WARM ADVECTION AND THICKNESS
VALUES RISING INTO THE 1370-1380M RANGE SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 75-82
RANGE.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A LITTLE
MORE INSTABILITY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM IS
GENERALLY MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE GFS WITH COMPROMISE INSTABILITY
VALUES BETWEEN THE TWO IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT WITH LESS INSTABILITY TO THE
WEST. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT RATHER VIGOROUS WITH
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30-40KT RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEAR
KFAY AND AROUND 40 KTS IN THE NW PIEDMONT NEAR KGSO. IF CONVECTION
IS ABLE TO FIRE...IT INCREASINGLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. IN SHORT HAVE INCLUDED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST INCREASE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS CENTRAL NC BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION NEAR AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND THE
EXIT REGION OF A STOUT 150KT JET. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
NC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY FALL INTO THE 48-56
RANGE.

EXPECT LITTLE DAYTIME WARMING ON FRIDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SATURATION ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER. WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING TO WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS. CLOUDS AND A COOLER AIRMASS
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES
BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHILLY LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL ONLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT EVEN COLDER IN THE 30-35 RANGE.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE INTO THE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60 ON SUNDAY AND IN THE MID 60S ON MONDAY. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED BUT RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS...WHILE
DIFFERING ON TIMING...SUGGEST SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL OPT FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW BUT INCREASE CLOUD COVER. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: EXPECT CEILINGS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AT ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP A
COOL SFC AIRMASS RECENTLY DEPOSITED IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 700-1200 FT AGL AT ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z...
WITH AN EASTERLY WIND AT 5-10 KT.

RWI/FAY/RDU: CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO HIGH-END MVFR OR LOW-
END VFR (2500-3500 FT AGL) BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE THE CAD WEDGE
WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM FRONT PROGRESSING WESTWARD TO THE HWY 1
CORRIDOR. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BY THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.

INT/GSO: FURTHER NW WHERE THE CAD WEDGE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN
PLACE...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS (~1000 FT AGL) ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...WITH FURTHER DETERIORATION TO LIFR
(CEILINGS 200-400 FT AGL) LIKELY BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
AND POSSIBLY VFR DURING THE DAY THU AS A WARM SECTOR BECOMES MORE
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER CENTRAL NC...THOUGH CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
TAKE LONGER TO IMPROVE AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS AND MAY REMAIN SUB-
VFR THE ENTIRE DAY. ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
ANY TERMINAL THU AFT/EVE INTO THU NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. OVERCAST MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN
EARLY FRI MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PERSISTING THROUGH THE
DAY AT EASTERN TERMINALS...BEFORE STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND
ALLOWS IMPROVEMENT FRI NIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 250229
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1029 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH AND FORCE A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL NC LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE TRIAD...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S NE TO
LOW 50S SW.

&&


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...

IN SITU CAD WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THIS WILL SET UP A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING GRADIENT WITH HIGHS ONLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE TRIAD BUT POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURE COULD COME IN TO PLAY LATER IN THE DAY IN REGARDS TO
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE OUT TO SEA...THE WEDGE FRONT WILL BREAK DOWN AND IN ITS PLACE
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF
OF THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS
CONCERNED...ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
WEST UNDER THE CAD REGIME...BUT LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE HIGH
SLIDES OUT TO SEA...MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CAPE IS TALL AND
SKINNY AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS BUT ANY
CAPPING THAT IS IN PLACE INITIALLY AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL WILL
EVENTUALLY ERODE OVERNIGHT...SETTING UP MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WIND
SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AS 40 KTS OR SO OF BULK
SHEAR IS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 6Z
THURSDAY. A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE CAD
BREAKS DOWN AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT WORKS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. THEREFORE NEAR STEADY TO SLIGHTLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WILL MORE RAPIDLY INCREASE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. LOWS LISTED IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S BUT AGAIN THIS WILL
OCCUR EARLIER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

A DEEPENING MIDWEST TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST REACHING THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS
BY FRIDAY MORNING. NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STREAM OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM OFF THE SC COAST NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NC OWING TO LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING RESULTING
IN A GENERAL MINIMUM OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND EVENING HOURS THURSDAY AS THE REGION WILL BE IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS IN THE EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A LAGGING UPPER TROUGH TO THE
WEST. THE RESULT SHOULD BE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DESPITE A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES.  WARM ADVECTION AND THICKNESS
VALUES RISING INTO THE 1370-1380M RANGE SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 75-82
RANGE.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A LITTLE
MORE INSTABILITY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM IS
GENERALLY MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE GFS WITH COMPROMISE INSTABILITY
VALUES BETWEEN THE TWO IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT WITH LESS INSTABILITY TO THE
WEST. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT RATHER VIGOROUS WITH
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30-40KT RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEAR
KFAY AND AROUND 40 KTS IN THE NW PIEDMONT NEAR KGSO. IF CONVECTION
IS ABLE TO FIRE...IT INCREASINGLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. IN SHORT HAVE INCLUDED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST INCREASE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS CENTRAL NC BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION NEAR AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND THE
EXIT REGION OF A STOUT 150KT JET. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
NC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY FALL INTO THE 48-56
RANGE.

EXPECT LITTLE DAYTIME WARMING ON FRIDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SATURATION ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER. WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING TO WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS. CLOUDS AND A COOLER AIRMASS
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES
BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHILLY LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL ONLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT EVEN COLDER IN THE 30-35 RANGE.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE INTO THE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60 ON SUNDAY AND IN THE MID 60S ON MONDAY. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED BUT RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS...WHILE
DIFFERING ON TIMING...SUGGEST SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL OPT FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW BUT INCREASE CLOUD COVER. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM TUESDAY...

INITIALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MAINLY MVFR WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS BETWEEN 06-09Z...IN RESPONSE TO SLOPED
ASCENT ATOP A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS OUR
AREA TONIGHT. WHILE ASSOCIATED CEILINGS WILL AVERAGE MVFR THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD IN A RESULTANT COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME...THERE IS 40-
50 PERCENT CHANCE OF THESE CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR RANGE AND WITH
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AT TRIAD TERMINALS...PARTICULARLY INT...DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON WED. IN ADDITION... SOME LIFTING AND SCATTERING OF
THE MVFR CEILINGS TO HIGH MVFR (NEAR 3000 FT) OR VFR...WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AT RWI AND FAY.

OUTLOOK: NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL CAUSE CEILINGS TO LOWER TO IFR OR
LIFR WED NIGHT...WITH SOME ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ALSO PROBABLE...MAINLY AT TRIAD TERMINALS. THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE THU
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL LIFTING AND SCATTERING TO VFR
THROUGH THU AFTERNOON - SLOWEST AT TRIAD TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS OUR AREA THU NIGHT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 250229
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1029 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH AND FORCE A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL NC LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 PM TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE TRIAD...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S NE TO
LOW 50S SW.

&&


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...

IN SITU CAD WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THIS WILL SET UP A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING GRADIENT WITH HIGHS ONLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE TRIAD BUT POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURE COULD COME IN TO PLAY LATER IN THE DAY IN REGARDS TO
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE OUT TO SEA...THE WEDGE FRONT WILL BREAK DOWN AND IN ITS PLACE
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF
OF THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS
CONCERNED...ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
WEST UNDER THE CAD REGIME...BUT LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE HIGH
SLIDES OUT TO SEA...MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CAPE IS TALL AND
SKINNY AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS BUT ANY
CAPPING THAT IS IN PLACE INITIALLY AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL WILL
EVENTUALLY ERODE OVERNIGHT...SETTING UP MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WIND
SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AS 40 KTS OR SO OF BULK
SHEAR IS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 6Z
THURSDAY. A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE CAD
BREAKS DOWN AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT WORKS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. THEREFORE NEAR STEADY TO SLIGHTLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WILL MORE RAPIDLY INCREASE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. LOWS LISTED IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S BUT AGAIN THIS WILL
OCCUR EARLIER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

A DEEPENING MIDWEST TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST REACHING THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS
BY FRIDAY MORNING. NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STREAM OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM OFF THE SC COAST NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NC OWING TO LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING RESULTING
IN A GENERAL MINIMUM OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND EVENING HOURS THURSDAY AS THE REGION WILL BE IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS IN THE EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A LAGGING UPPER TROUGH TO THE
WEST. THE RESULT SHOULD BE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DESPITE A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES.  WARM ADVECTION AND THICKNESS
VALUES RISING INTO THE 1370-1380M RANGE SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 75-82
RANGE.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A LITTLE
MORE INSTABILITY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM IS
GENERALLY MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE GFS WITH COMPROMISE INSTABILITY
VALUES BETWEEN THE TWO IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT WITH LESS INSTABILITY TO THE
WEST. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT RATHER VIGOROUS WITH
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30-40KT RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEAR
KFAY AND AROUND 40 KTS IN THE NW PIEDMONT NEAR KGSO. IF CONVECTION
IS ABLE TO FIRE...IT INCREASINGLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. IN SHORT HAVE INCLUDED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST INCREASE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS CENTRAL NC BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION NEAR AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND THE
EXIT REGION OF A STOUT 150KT JET. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
NC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY FALL INTO THE 48-56
RANGE.

EXPECT LITTLE DAYTIME WARMING ON FRIDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SATURATION ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER. WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING TO WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS. CLOUDS AND A COOLER AIRMASS
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES
BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHILLY LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL ONLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT EVEN COLDER IN THE 30-35 RANGE.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE INTO THE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60 ON SUNDAY AND IN THE MID 60S ON MONDAY. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED BUT RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS...WHILE
DIFFERING ON TIMING...SUGGEST SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL OPT FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW BUT INCREASE CLOUD COVER. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM TUESDAY...

INITIALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MAINLY MVFR WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS BETWEEN 06-09Z...IN RESPONSE TO SLOPED
ASCENT ATOP A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS OUR
AREA TONIGHT. WHILE ASSOCIATED CEILINGS WILL AVERAGE MVFR THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD IN A RESULTANT COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME...THERE IS 40-
50 PERCENT CHANCE OF THESE CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR RANGE AND WITH
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AT TRIAD TERMINALS...PARTICULARLY INT...DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON WED. IN ADDITION... SOME LIFTING AND SCATTERING OF
THE MVFR CEILINGS TO HIGH MVFR (NEAR 3000 FT) OR VFR...WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AT RWI AND FAY.

OUTLOOK: NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL CAUSE CEILINGS TO LOWER TO IFR OR
LIFR WED NIGHT...WITH SOME ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ALSO PROBABLE...MAINLY AT TRIAD TERMINALS. THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE THU
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL LIFTING AND SCATTERING TO VFR
THROUGH THU AFTERNOON - SLOWEST AT TRIAD TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS OUR AREA THU NIGHT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 241926
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WARMER AND MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS EARLIER STRATUS
HAS BURNED OFF AND NC REMAINS BETWEEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE
SOUTH AS OBSERVED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THE NORTH...STEMMING FROM A SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...DEPICTED NICELY BY WATER VAPOR. AS A RESULT OF THE
INCREASED INSOLATION...TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL TOP OUT IN
GENERALLY THE LOWER 60S WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY BUT OROGRAPHICALLY INFLUENCED CLOUDINESS MAY
START TO SPILL INTO NORTHWESTERN AREAS LATER THIS EVENING.

EVENTUALLY...AS LOW PRESSURE BOWLS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
NORTHEAST...DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SET UP AN IN-SITU
DAMMING SITUATION.  THIS WILL CAUSE LOW CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE TRIAD AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WITH THE
INCREASED DAMMING ACTIVITY BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S NORTHEAST WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR CLOUDS TO BUILD IN
AND MORE RADIATION IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR. MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES
ELSEWHERE.

&&


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...

IN SITU CAD WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THIS WILL SET UP A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING GRADIENT WITH HIGHS ONLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE TRIAD BUT POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURE COULD COME IN TO PLAY LATER IN THE DAY IN REGARDS TO
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE OUT TO SEA...THE WEDGE FRONT WILL BREAK DOWN AND IN ITS PLACE
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF
OF THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS
CONCERNED...ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
WEST UNDER THE CAD REGIME...BUT LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE HIGH
SLIDES OUT TO SEA...MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CAPE IS TALL AND
SKINNY AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS BUT ANY
CAPPING THAT IS IN PLACE INITIALLY AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL WILL
EVENTUALLY ERODE OVERNIGHT...SETTING UP MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WIND
SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AS 40 KTS OR SO OF BULK
SHEAR IS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 6Z
THURSDAY. A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE CAD
BREAKS DOWN AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT WORKS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. THEREFORE NEAR STEADY TO SLIGHTLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WILL MORE RAPIDLY INCREASE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. LOWS LISTED IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S BUT AGAIN THIS WILL
OCCUR EARLIER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

A DEEPENING MIDWEST TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST REACHING THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS
BY FRIDAY MORNING. NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STREAM OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM OFF THE SC COAST NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NC OWING TO LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING RESULTING
IN A GENERAL MINIMUM OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND EVENING HOURS THURSDAY AS THE REGION WILL BE IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS IN THE EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A LAGGING UPPER TROUGH TO THE
WEST. THE RESULT SHOULD BE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DESPITE A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES.  WARM ADVECTION AND THICKNESS
VALUES RISING INTO THE 1370-1380M RANGE SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 75-82
RANGE.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A LITTLE
MORE INSTABILITY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM IS
GENERALLY MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE GFS WITH COMPROMISE INSTABILITY
VALUES BETWEEN THE TWO IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT WITH LESS INSTABILITY TO THE
WEST. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT RATHER VIGOROUS WITH
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30-40KT RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEAR
KFAY AND AROUND 40 KTS IN THE NW PIEDMONT NEAR KGSO. IF CONVECTION
IS ABLE TO FIRE...IT INCREASINGLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. IN SHORT HAVE INCLUDED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST INCREASE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS CENTRAL NC BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION NEAR AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND THE
EXIT REGION OF A STOUT 150KT JET. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
NC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY FALL INTO THE 48-56
RANGE.

EXPECT LITTLE DAYTIME WARMING ON FRIDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SATURATION ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER. WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING TO WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS. CLOUDS AND A COOLER AIRMASS
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES
BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHILLY LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL ONLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT EVEN COLDER IN THE 30-35 RANGE.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE INTO THE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60 ON SUNDAY AND IN THE MID 60S ON MONDAY. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED BUT RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS...WHILE
DIFFERING ON TIMING...SUGGEST SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL OPT FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW BUT INCREASE CLOUD COVER. -BLAES
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL PERSIST FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BUT LATE EVENING EXPECT CEILINGS TO
START COMING DOWN STEADILY AND ALL SITES WILL REALIZE AT LEAST IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE TRIAD SITES POSSIBLY GETTING
DOWN TO LIFR. RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THAT ONCE
CEILINGS ARE DOWN THEY WILL PROBABLY STAY DOWN THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...EXCEPT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THEY MAY IMPROVE A
LITTLE BUT NOT TO VFR LEVELS. THE TRIAD SITES WILL CERTAINLY BE THE
MOST PESSIMISTIC AS COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO SETS IN. WINDS WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY BUT FAIRLY LIGHT AT AROUND 5 KTS. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM: CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT THEN
MORE FOG/LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING WITH INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES. THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL FEATURE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 241926
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WARMER AND MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS EARLIER STRATUS
HAS BURNED OFF AND NC REMAINS BETWEEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE
SOUTH AS OBSERVED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THE NORTH...STEMMING FROM A SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...DEPICTED NICELY BY WATER VAPOR. AS A RESULT OF THE
INCREASED INSOLATION...TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL TOP OUT IN
GENERALLY THE LOWER 60S WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY BUT OROGRAPHICALLY INFLUENCED CLOUDINESS MAY
START TO SPILL INTO NORTHWESTERN AREAS LATER THIS EVENING.

EVENTUALLY...AS LOW PRESSURE BOWLS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
NORTHEAST...DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SET UP AN IN-SITU
DAMMING SITUATION.  THIS WILL CAUSE LOW CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE TRIAD AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WITH THE
INCREASED DAMMING ACTIVITY BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S NORTHEAST WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR CLOUDS TO BUILD IN
AND MORE RADIATION IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR. MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES
ELSEWHERE.

&&


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...

IN SITU CAD WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THIS WILL SET UP A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING GRADIENT WITH HIGHS ONLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE TRIAD BUT POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURE COULD COME IN TO PLAY LATER IN THE DAY IN REGARDS TO
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE OUT TO SEA...THE WEDGE FRONT WILL BREAK DOWN AND IN ITS PLACE
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF
OF THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS
CONCERNED...ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
WEST UNDER THE CAD REGIME...BUT LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE HIGH
SLIDES OUT TO SEA...MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CAPE IS TALL AND
SKINNY AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS BUT ANY
CAPPING THAT IS IN PLACE INITIALLY AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL WILL
EVENTUALLY ERODE OVERNIGHT...SETTING UP MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WIND
SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AS 40 KTS OR SO OF BULK
SHEAR IS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 6Z
THURSDAY. A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE CAD
BREAKS DOWN AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT WORKS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. THEREFORE NEAR STEADY TO SLIGHTLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WILL MORE RAPIDLY INCREASE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. LOWS LISTED IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S BUT AGAIN THIS WILL
OCCUR EARLIER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...

A DEEPENING MIDWEST TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST REACHING THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS
BY FRIDAY MORNING. NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STREAM OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM OFF THE SC COAST NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NC OWING TO LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING RESULTING
IN A GENERAL MINIMUM OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND EVENING HOURS THURSDAY AS THE REGION WILL BE IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS IN THE EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A LAGGING UPPER TROUGH TO THE
WEST. THE RESULT SHOULD BE LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DESPITE A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES.  WARM ADVECTION AND THICKNESS
VALUES RISING INTO THE 1370-1380M RANGE SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 75-82
RANGE.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A LITTLE
MORE INSTABILITY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM IS
GENERALLY MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE GFS WITH COMPROMISE INSTABILITY
VALUES BETWEEN THE TWO IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT WITH LESS INSTABILITY TO THE
WEST. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT RATHER VIGOROUS WITH
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30-40KT RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEAR
KFAY AND AROUND 40 KTS IN THE NW PIEDMONT NEAR KGSO. IF CONVECTION
IS ABLE TO FIRE...IT INCREASINGLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. IN SHORT HAVE INCLUDED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST INCREASE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS CENTRAL NC BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION NEAR AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AND THE
EXIT REGION OF A STOUT 150KT JET. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
NC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY FALL INTO THE 48-56
RANGE.

EXPECT LITTLE DAYTIME WARMING ON FRIDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION AND THE
ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SATURATION ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER. WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING TO WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS. CLOUDS AND A COOLER AIRMASS
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES
BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHILLY LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL ONLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT EVEN COLDER IN THE 30-35 RANGE.

HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE INTO THE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60 ON SUNDAY AND IN THE MID 60S ON MONDAY. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED BUT RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS...WHILE
DIFFERING ON TIMING...SUGGEST SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL OPT FOR A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW BUT INCREASE CLOUD COVER. -BLAES
&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL PERSIST FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BUT LATE EVENING EXPECT CEILINGS TO
START COMING DOWN STEADILY AND ALL SITES WILL REALIZE AT LEAST IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE TRIAD SITES POSSIBLY GETTING
DOWN TO LIFR. RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THAT ONCE
CEILINGS ARE DOWN THEY WILL PROBABLY STAY DOWN THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...EXCEPT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THEY MAY IMPROVE A
LITTLE BUT NOT TO VFR LEVELS. THE TRIAD SITES WILL CERTAINLY BE THE
MOST PESSIMISTIC AS COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO SETS IN. WINDS WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY BUT FAIRLY LIGHT AT AROUND 5 KTS. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM: CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT THEN
MORE FOG/LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING WITH INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES. THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL FEATURE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 241916
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
316 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WARMER AND MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS EARLIER STRATUS
HAS BURNED OFF AND NC REMAINS BETWEEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE
SOUTH AS OBSERVED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THE NORTH...STEMMING FROM A SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...DEPICTED NICELY BY WATER VAPOR. AS A RESULT OF THE
INCREASED INSOLATION...TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL TOP OUT IN
GENERALLY THE LOWER 60S WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY BUT OROGRAPHICALLY INFLUENCED CLOUDINESS MAY
START TO SPILL INTO NORTHWESTERN AREAS LATER THIS EVENING.

EVENTUALLY...AS LOW PRESSURE BOWLS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
NORTHEAST...DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SET UP AN IN-SITU
DAMMING SITUATION.  THIS WILL CAUSE LOW CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE TRIAD AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WITH THE
INCREASED DAMMING ACTIVITY BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S NORTHEAST WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR CLOUDS TO BUILD IN
AND MORE RADIATION IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR. MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES
ELSEWHERE.

&&


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...

IN SITU CAD WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THIS WILL SET UP A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING GRADIENT WITH HIGHS ONLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE TRIAD BUT POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURE COULD COME IN TO PLAY LATER IN THE DAY IN REGARDS TO
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE OUT TO SEA...THE WEDGE FRONT WILL BREAK DOWN AND IN ITS PLACE
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF
OF THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS
CONCERNED...ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
WEST UNDER THE CAD REGIME...BUT LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE HIGH
SLIDES OUT TO SEA...MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CAPE IS TALL AND
SKINNY AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS BUT ANY
CAPPING THAT IS IN PLACE INITIALLY AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL WILL
EVENTUALLY ERODE OVERNIGHT...SETTING UP MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WIND
SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AS 40 KTS OR SO OF BULK
SHEAR IS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 6Z
THURSDAY. A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE CAD
BREAKS DOWN AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT WORKS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. THEREFORE NEAR STEADY TO SLIGHTLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WILL MORE RAPIDLY INCREASE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. LOWS LISTED IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S BUT AGAIN THIS WILL
OCCUR EARLIER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

LOOKING AT TEMPS WAY UP IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY WITH
DEEP SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
>6C AND FORECAST CAPES OF ~1K JOULES. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE
DECENT...BUT NO GOOD TRIGGERING MECHANISM ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW AND WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAKE THUNDER A LITTLE LESS
LIKELY...WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER
DURING THE FAVORED MAX HEATING INTO EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCES OF ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH
MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME
CLEARING WILL BE UNDERWAY IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE WITH MINS IN THE
MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY WILL BE AUGMENTED BY AN
ADDITIONAL STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE LOOKS QUITE
VIGOROUS AND EXPECT SHOWERS OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS ACCOMPANYING
THE WAVE...MAINLY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SHORT
WAVE LIFTS OUT LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY CRASH AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...MINS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 30S TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND.

COOL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH
SATURDAY AS OUR COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE NORTHWEST IN THE
UPPER 40S...WITH MOSTLY LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL PRODUCE NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AND MORNING LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING WILL EDGE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW FREEZING OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTHEAST. STRONG SUN AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW RECOVERY
TO COMMENCE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 60S ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL PERSIST FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BUT LATE EVENING EXPECT CEILINGS TO
START COMING DOWN STEADILY AND ALL SITES WILL REALIZE AT LEAST IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE TRIAD SITES POSSIBLY GETTING
DOWN TO LIFR. RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THAT ONCE
CEILINGS ARE DOWN THEY WILL PROBABLY STAY DOWN THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...EXCEPT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THEY MAY IMPROVE A
LITTLE BUT NOT TO VFR LEVELS. THE TRIAD SITES WILL CERTAINLY BE THE
MOST PESSIMISTIC AS COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO SETS IN. WINDS WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY BUT FAIRLY LIGHT AT AROUND 5 KTS. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM: CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT THEN
MORE FOG/LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING WITH INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES. THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL FEATURE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 241916
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
316 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WARMER AND MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS EARLIER STRATUS
HAS BURNED OFF AND NC REMAINS BETWEEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE
SOUTH AS OBSERVED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TO THE NORTH...STEMMING FROM A SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...DEPICTED NICELY BY WATER VAPOR. AS A RESULT OF THE
INCREASED INSOLATION...TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND WILL TOP OUT IN
GENERALLY THE LOWER 60S WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHWEST. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY BUT OROGRAPHICALLY INFLUENCED CLOUDINESS MAY
START TO SPILL INTO NORTHWESTERN AREAS LATER THIS EVENING.

EVENTUALLY...AS LOW PRESSURE BOWLS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
NORTHEAST...DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SET UP AN IN-SITU
DAMMING SITUATION.  THIS WILL CAUSE LOW CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY IN THE TRIAD AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WITH THE
INCREASED DAMMING ACTIVITY BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S NORTHEAST WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR CLOUDS TO BUILD IN
AND MORE RADIATION IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR. MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES
ELSEWHERE.

&&


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...

IN SITU CAD WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THIS WILL SET UP A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING GRADIENT WITH HIGHS ONLY
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE TRIAD BUT POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPERATURE COULD COME IN TO PLAY LATER IN THE DAY IN REGARDS TO
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE OUT TO SEA...THE WEDGE FRONT WILL BREAK DOWN AND IN ITS PLACE
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF
OF THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS
CONCERNED...ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
WEST UNDER THE CAD REGIME...BUT LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE HIGH
SLIDES OUT TO SEA...MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CAPE IS TALL AND
SKINNY AND MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS BUT ANY
CAPPING THAT IS IN PLACE INITIALLY AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL WILL
EVENTUALLY ERODE OVERNIGHT...SETTING UP MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WIND
SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AS 40 KTS OR SO OF BULK
SHEAR IS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 6Z
THURSDAY. A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE CAD
BREAKS DOWN AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT WORKS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. THEREFORE NEAR STEADY TO SLIGHTLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WILL MORE RAPIDLY INCREASE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. LOWS LISTED IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S BUT AGAIN THIS WILL
OCCUR EARLIER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

LOOKING AT TEMPS WAY UP IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY WITH
DEEP SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
>6C AND FORECAST CAPES OF ~1K JOULES. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE
DECENT...BUT NO GOOD TRIGGERING MECHANISM ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW AND WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAKE THUNDER A LITTLE LESS
LIKELY...WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER
DURING THE FAVORED MAX HEATING INTO EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCES OF ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH
MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME
CLEARING WILL BE UNDERWAY IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE WITH MINS IN THE
MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY WILL BE AUGMENTED BY AN
ADDITIONAL STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE LOOKS QUITE
VIGOROUS AND EXPECT SHOWERS OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS ACCOMPANYING
THE WAVE...MAINLY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SHORT
WAVE LIFTS OUT LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY CRASH AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...MINS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 30S TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND.

COOL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH
SATURDAY AS OUR COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE NORTHWEST IN THE
UPPER 40S...WITH MOSTLY LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL PRODUCE NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AND MORNING LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING WILL EDGE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW FREEZING OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTHEAST. STRONG SUN AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW RECOVERY
TO COMMENCE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 60S ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL PERSIST FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BUT LATE EVENING EXPECT CEILINGS TO
START COMING DOWN STEADILY AND ALL SITES WILL REALIZE AT LEAST IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE TRIAD SITES POSSIBLY GETTING
DOWN TO LIFR. RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THAT ONCE
CEILINGS ARE DOWN THEY WILL PROBABLY STAY DOWN THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...EXCEPT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THEY MAY IMPROVE A
LITTLE BUT NOT TO VFR LEVELS. THE TRIAD SITES WILL CERTAINLY BE THE
MOST PESSIMISTIC AS COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO SETS IN. WINDS WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY BUT FAIRLY LIGHT AT AROUND 5 KTS. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM: CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT THEN
MORE FOG/LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING WITH INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES. THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL FEATURE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 241757
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
157 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY...AND WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY: HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL EXTEND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY WHILE FLOW REMAINS
ZONAL ALOFT. EARLIER LOW STRATUS HAS BURNED OFF IN MOST AREAS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WHERE MVFR CEILINGS ARE
STILL ONGOING. THESE CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING EASTWARD BUT MOST LIKELY AT
HIGHER BASES THAN MVFR LEVELS SO WILL HAVE SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES COMING INTO THE TRIANGLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL EXPECT MUCH MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH AS
OPPOSED TO THE SOUTH AND THEREFORE MAY HAVE SOME DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BEGIN TO OCCUR. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH MAY
REACH HIGHER LEVELS THAN THOSE IN THE NORTH. ANOTHER FACTOR IN THIS
IS WIND DIRECTION AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW STILL PERSISTS IN THE
NORTHEAST AND MORE EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THEREFORE THE TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION TODAY WILL HAVE LOWEST
TEMPS IN THE NORTHEAST WITH MID 50S TO LOW 60S EXPECTED. IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT EXPECT MAINLY LOWER 60S AS MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS HERE BUT CLOUD COVER PUTS A DAMPER ON WARMING. FINALLY IN THE
SOUTH EXPECT THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES AS LACK OF CLOUD COVER ALLOWS FOR MORE INSOLATION. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. -ELLIS

TONIGHT: LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE WE WILL ONLY RECEIVE A GLANCING SHOT...
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET/LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE FAR NW/NORTHERN ZONES. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FROM UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 NORTH TO UPPER 40S/NEAR 50. -CBL

&&


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...

STRONG 1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS INTO THE
RESIDUAL DRY COOL AT THE SURFACE LATE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
HELP TO ESTABLISH IN-SITU WEDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
PIEDMONT WITH CONTINUED MOIST UPGLIDE SUPPORTING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

A SECONDARY AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL HELP TO LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED STRONG WAA WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT(MUCAPE 400-600 J/KG)WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGH TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WARMING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE
WEDGE ERODES...WHILE HOLDING STEADY ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS RANGING
FROM MID 50S NORTH(EVENING)TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

LOOKING AT TEMPS WAY UP IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY WITH
DEEP SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
>6C AND FORECAST CAPES OF ~1K JOULES. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE
DECENT...BUT NO GOOD TRIGGERING MECHANISM ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW AND WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAKE THUNDER A LITTLE LESS
LIKELY...WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER
DURING THE FAVORED MAX HEATING INTO EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCES OF ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH
MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME
CLEARING WILL BE UNDERWAY IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE WITH MINS IN THE
MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY WILL BE AUGMENTED BY AN
ADDITIONAL STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE LOOKS QUITE
VIGOROUS AND EXPECT SHOWERS OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS ACCOMPANYING
THE WAVE...MAINLY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SHORT
WAVE LIFTS OUT LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY CRASH AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...MINS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 30S TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND.

COOL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH
SATURDAY AS OUR COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE NORTHWEST IN THE
UPPER 40S...WITH MOSTLY LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL PRODUCE NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AND MORNING LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING WILL EDGE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW FREEZING OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTHEAST. STRONG SUN AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW RECOVERY
TO COMMENCE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 60S ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL PERSIST FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BUT LATE EVENING EXPECT CEILINGS TO
START COMING DOWN STEADILY AND ALL SITES WILL REALIZE AT LEAST IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE TRIAD SITES POSSIBLY GETTING
DOWN TO LIFR. RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THAT ONCE
CEILINGS ARE DOWN THEY WILL PROBABLY STAY DOWN THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...EXCEPT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THEY MAY IMPROVE A
LITTLE BUT NOT TO VFR LEVELS. THE TRIAD SITES WILL CERTAINLY BE THE
MOST PESSIMISTIC AS COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO SETS IN. WINDS WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY BUT FAIRLY LIGHT AT AROUND 5 KTS. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM: CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT THEN
MORE FOG/LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING WITH INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES. THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL FEATURE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 241757
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
157 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY...AND WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY: HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL EXTEND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY WHILE FLOW REMAINS
ZONAL ALOFT. EARLIER LOW STRATUS HAS BURNED OFF IN MOST AREAS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WHERE MVFR CEILINGS ARE
STILL ONGOING. THESE CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING EASTWARD BUT MOST LIKELY AT
HIGHER BASES THAN MVFR LEVELS SO WILL HAVE SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES COMING INTO THE TRIANGLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL EXPECT MUCH MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH AS
OPPOSED TO THE SOUTH AND THEREFORE MAY HAVE SOME DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BEGIN TO OCCUR. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH MAY
REACH HIGHER LEVELS THAN THOSE IN THE NORTH. ANOTHER FACTOR IN THIS
IS WIND DIRECTION AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW STILL PERSISTS IN THE
NORTHEAST AND MORE EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THEREFORE THE TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION TODAY WILL HAVE LOWEST
TEMPS IN THE NORTHEAST WITH MID 50S TO LOW 60S EXPECTED. IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT EXPECT MAINLY LOWER 60S AS MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS HERE BUT CLOUD COVER PUTS A DAMPER ON WARMING. FINALLY IN THE
SOUTH EXPECT THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES AS LACK OF CLOUD COVER ALLOWS FOR MORE INSOLATION. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. -ELLIS

TONIGHT: LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE WE WILL ONLY RECEIVE A GLANCING SHOT...
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET/LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE FAR NW/NORTHERN ZONES. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FROM UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 NORTH TO UPPER 40S/NEAR 50. -CBL

&&


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...

STRONG 1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS INTO THE
RESIDUAL DRY COOL AT THE SURFACE LATE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
HELP TO ESTABLISH IN-SITU WEDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
PIEDMONT WITH CONTINUED MOIST UPGLIDE SUPPORTING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

A SECONDARY AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL HELP TO LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED STRONG WAA WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT(MUCAPE 400-600 J/KG)WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGH TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WARMING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE
WEDGE ERODES...WHILE HOLDING STEADY ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS RANGING
FROM MID 50S NORTH(EVENING)TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

LOOKING AT TEMPS WAY UP IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY WITH
DEEP SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
>6C AND FORECAST CAPES OF ~1K JOULES. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE
DECENT...BUT NO GOOD TRIGGERING MECHANISM ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW AND WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAKE THUNDER A LITTLE LESS
LIKELY...WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER
DURING THE FAVORED MAX HEATING INTO EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCES OF ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH
MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME
CLEARING WILL BE UNDERWAY IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE WITH MINS IN THE
MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY WILL BE AUGMENTED BY AN
ADDITIONAL STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE LOOKS QUITE
VIGOROUS AND EXPECT SHOWERS OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS ACCOMPANYING
THE WAVE...MAINLY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SHORT
WAVE LIFTS OUT LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY CRASH AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...MINS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 30S TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND.

COOL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH
SATURDAY AS OUR COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE NORTHWEST IN THE
UPPER 40S...WITH MOSTLY LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL PRODUCE NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AND MORNING LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING WILL EDGE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW FREEZING OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTHEAST. STRONG SUN AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW RECOVERY
TO COMMENCE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 60S ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY WILL PERSIST FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BUT LATE EVENING EXPECT CEILINGS TO
START COMING DOWN STEADILY AND ALL SITES WILL REALIZE AT LEAST IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE TRIAD SITES POSSIBLY GETTING
DOWN TO LIFR. RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THAT ONCE
CEILINGS ARE DOWN THEY WILL PROBABLY STAY DOWN THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...EXCEPT IN THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE THEY MAY IMPROVE A
LITTLE BUT NOT TO VFR LEVELS. THE TRIAD SITES WILL CERTAINLY BE THE
MOST PESSIMISTIC AS COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO SETS IN. WINDS WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY BUT FAIRLY LIGHT AT AROUND 5 KTS. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM: CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT THEN
MORE FOG/LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING WITH INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES. THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL FEATURE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR LEVELS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 241414
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1014 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY...AND WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY: HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL EXTEND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY WHILE FLOW REMAINS
ZONAL ALOFT. EARLIER LOW STRATUS HAS BURNED OFF IN MOST AREAS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WHERE MVFR CEILINGS ARE
STILL ONGOING. THESE CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING EASTWARD BUT MOST LIKELY AT
HIGHER BASES THAN MVFR LEVELS SO WILL HAVE SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES COMING INTO THE TRIANGLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL EXPECT MUCH MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH AS
OPPOSED TO THE SOUTH AND THEREFORE MAY HAVE SOME DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BEGIN TO OCCUR. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH MAY
REACH HIGHER LEVELS THAN THOSE IN THE NORTH. ANOTHER FACTOR IN THIS
IS WIND DIRECTION AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW STILL PERSISTS IN THE
NORTHEAST AND MORE EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THEREFORE THE TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION TODAY WILL HAVE LOWEST
TEMPS IN THE NORTHEAST WITH MID 50S TO LOW 60S EXPECTED. IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT EXPECT MAINLY LOWER 60S AS MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS HERE BUT CLOUD COVER PUTS A DAMPER ON WARMING. FINALLY IN THE
SOUTH EXPECT THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES AS LACK OF CLOUD COVER ALLOWS FOR MORE INSOLATION. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. -ELLIS

TONIGHT: LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE WE WILL ONLY RECEIVE A GLANCING SHOT...
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET/LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE FAR NW/NORTHERN ZONES. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FROM UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 NORTH TO UPPER 40S/NEAR 50. -CBL

&&


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...

STRONG 1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS INTO THE
RESIDUAL DRY COOL AT THE SURFACE LATE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
HELP TO ESTABLISH IN-SITU WEDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
PIEDMONT WITH CONTINUED MOIST UPGLIDE SUPPORTING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

A SECONDARY AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL HELP TO LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED STRONG WAA WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT(MUCAPE 400-600 J/KG)WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGH TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WARMING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE
WEDGE ERODES...WHILE HOLDING STEADY ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS RANGING
FROM MID 50S NORTH(EVENING)TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

LOOKING AT TEMPS WAY UP IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY WITH
DEEP SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
>6C AND FORECAST CAPES OF ~1K JOULES. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE
DECENT...BUT NO GOOD TRIGGERING MECHANISM ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW AND WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAKE THUNDER A LITTLE LESS
LIKELY...WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER
DURING THE FAVORED MAX HEATING INTO EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCES OF ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH
MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME
CLEARING WILL BE UNDERWAY IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE WITH MINS IN THE
MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY WILL BE AUGMENTED BY AN
ADDITIONAL STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE LOOKS QUITE
VIGOROUS AND EXPECT SHOWERS OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS ACCOMPANYING
THE WAVE...MAINLY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SHORT
WAVE LIFTS OUT LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY CRASH AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...MINS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 30S TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND.

COOL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH
SATURDAY AS OUR COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE NORTHWEST IN THE
UPPER 40S...WITH MOSTLY LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL PRODUCE NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AND MORNING LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING WILL EDGE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW FREEZING OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTHEAST. STRONG SUN AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW RECOVERY
TO COMMENCE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 60S ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 742 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: OUTSIDE OF SOME SCATTERED STRATUS THIS
MORNING...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z.  A SURGE OF WARM
MOIST ADVECTION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO AND TN VALLEY
WILL YIELD INCREASING THREAT OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES.

LONG TERM: SUB-VFR CEILINGS RANGING FROM IFR IN THE WEST TO MVFR IN
THE EAST COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ATTENDANT TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR
CEILINGS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY-FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 241414
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1014 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY...AND WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY: HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL EXTEND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY WHILE FLOW REMAINS
ZONAL ALOFT. EARLIER LOW STRATUS HAS BURNED OFF IN MOST AREAS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WHERE MVFR CEILINGS ARE
STILL ONGOING. THESE CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING EASTWARD BUT MOST LIKELY AT
HIGHER BASES THAN MVFR LEVELS SO WILL HAVE SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES COMING INTO THE TRIANGLE LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL EXPECT MUCH MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH AS
OPPOSED TO THE SOUTH AND THEREFORE MAY HAVE SOME DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BEGIN TO OCCUR. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH MAY
REACH HIGHER LEVELS THAN THOSE IN THE NORTH. ANOTHER FACTOR IN THIS
IS WIND DIRECTION AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW STILL PERSISTS IN THE
NORTHEAST AND MORE EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST. THEREFORE THE TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION TODAY WILL HAVE LOWEST
TEMPS IN THE NORTHEAST WITH MID 50S TO LOW 60S EXPECTED. IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT EXPECT MAINLY LOWER 60S AS MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION
OCCURS HERE BUT CLOUD COVER PUTS A DAMPER ON WARMING. FINALLY IN THE
SOUTH EXPECT THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES AS LACK OF CLOUD COVER ALLOWS FOR MORE INSOLATION. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. -ELLIS

TONIGHT: LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE WE WILL ONLY RECEIVE A GLANCING SHOT...
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET/LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE FAR NW/NORTHERN ZONES. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FROM UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 NORTH TO UPPER 40S/NEAR 50. -CBL

&&


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...

STRONG 1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS INTO THE
RESIDUAL DRY COOL AT THE SURFACE LATE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
HELP TO ESTABLISH IN-SITU WEDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
PIEDMONT WITH CONTINUED MOIST UPGLIDE SUPPORTING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

A SECONDARY AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL HELP TO LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED STRONG WAA WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT(MUCAPE 400-600 J/KG)WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGH TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WARMING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE
WEDGE ERODES...WHILE HOLDING STEADY ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS RANGING
FROM MID 50S NORTH(EVENING)TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

LOOKING AT TEMPS WAY UP IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY WITH
DEEP SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
>6C AND FORECAST CAPES OF ~1K JOULES. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE
DECENT...BUT NO GOOD TRIGGERING MECHANISM ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW AND WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAKE THUNDER A LITTLE LESS
LIKELY...WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER
DURING THE FAVORED MAX HEATING INTO EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCES OF ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH
MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME
CLEARING WILL BE UNDERWAY IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE WITH MINS IN THE
MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY WILL BE AUGMENTED BY AN
ADDITIONAL STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE LOOKS QUITE
VIGOROUS AND EXPECT SHOWERS OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS ACCOMPANYING
THE WAVE...MAINLY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SHORT
WAVE LIFTS OUT LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY CRASH AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...MINS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 30S TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND.

COOL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH
SATURDAY AS OUR COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE NORTHWEST IN THE
UPPER 40S...WITH MOSTLY LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL PRODUCE NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AND MORNING LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING WILL EDGE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW FREEZING OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTHEAST. STRONG SUN AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW RECOVERY
TO COMMENCE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 60S ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 742 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: OUTSIDE OF SOME SCATTERED STRATUS THIS
MORNING...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z.  A SURGE OF WARM
MOIST ADVECTION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO AND TN VALLEY
WILL YIELD INCREASING THREAT OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES.

LONG TERM: SUB-VFR CEILINGS RANGING FROM IFR IN THE WEST TO MVFR IN
THE EAST COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ATTENDANT TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR
CEILINGS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY-FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...ELLIS/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 241142
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
742 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY...AND WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY: A STRONG ~1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPSTAIRS...IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/JERSEY COAST LATER THIS
MORNING...A TRAILING SECONDARY STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW
CLOSELY ON IT`S HEELS...AND WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THIS AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT
TO OUR NORTH BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SELY RETURN FLOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RETREATING HIGH WILL AIDE IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN TIER...WHILE THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL STAY UNDERNEATH A COOLER NELY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL RESULT A WIDE RANGE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM MID TO
UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

TONIGHT: LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE WE WILL ONLY RECEIVE A GLANCING SHOT...
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET/LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE FAR NW/NORTHERN ZONES. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FROM UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 NORTH TO UPPER 40S/NEAR 50.

&&


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...

STRONG 1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS INTO THE
RESIDUAL DRY COOL AT THE SURFACE LATE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
HELP TO ESTABLISH IN-SITU WEDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
PIEDMONT WITH CONTINUED MOIST UPGLIDE SUPPORTING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

A SECONDARY AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL HELP TO LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED STRONG WAA WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT(MUCAPE 400-600 J/KG)WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGH TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WARMING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE
WEDGE ERODES...WHILE HOLDING STEADY ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS RANGING
FROM MID 50S NORTH(EVENING)TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

LOOKING AT TEMPS WAY UP IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY WITH
DEEP SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
>6C AND FORECAST CAPES OF ~1K JOULES. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE
DECENT...BUT NO GOOD TRIGGERING MECHANISM ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW AND WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAKE THUNDER A LITTLE LESS
LIKELY...WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER
DURING THE FAVORED MAX HEATING INTO EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCES OF ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH
MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME
CLEARING WILL BE UNDERWAY IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE WITH MINS IN THE
MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY WILL BE AUGMENTED BY AN
ADDITIONAL STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE LOOKS QUITE
VIGOROUS AND EXPECT SHOWERS OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS ACCOMPANYING
THE WAVE...MAINLY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SHORT
WAVE LIFTS OUT LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY CRASH AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...MINS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 30S TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND.

COOL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH
SATURDAY AS OUR COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE NORTHWEST IN THE
UPPER 40S...WITH MOSTLY LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL PRODUCE NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AND MORNING LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING WILL EDGE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW FREEZING OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTHEAST. STRONG SUN AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW RECOVERY
TO COMMENCE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 60S ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 742 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: OUTSIDE OF SOME SCATTERED STRATUS THIS
MORNING...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z.  A SURGE OF WARM
MOIST ADVECTION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO AND TN VALLEY
WILL YIELD INCREASING THREAT OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES.

LONG TERM: SUB-VFR CEILINGS RANGING FROM IFR IN THE WEST TO MVFR IN
THE EAST COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ATTENDANT TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR
CEILINGS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY-FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 241142
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
742 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY...AND WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY: A STRONG ~1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPSTAIRS...IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/JERSEY COAST LATER THIS
MORNING...A TRAILING SECONDARY STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW
CLOSELY ON IT`S HEELS...AND WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THIS AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT
TO OUR NORTH BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SELY RETURN FLOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RETREATING HIGH WILL AIDE IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN TIER...WHILE THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL STAY UNDERNEATH A COOLER NELY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL RESULT A WIDE RANGE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM MID TO
UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

TONIGHT: LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE WE WILL ONLY RECEIVE A GLANCING SHOT...
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET/LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE FAR NW/NORTHERN ZONES. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FROM UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 NORTH TO UPPER 40S/NEAR 50.

&&


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...

STRONG 1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS INTO THE
RESIDUAL DRY COOL AT THE SURFACE LATE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
HELP TO ESTABLISH IN-SITU WEDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
PIEDMONT WITH CONTINUED MOIST UPGLIDE SUPPORTING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

A SECONDARY AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL HELP TO LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED STRONG WAA WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT(MUCAPE 400-600 J/KG)WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGH TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WARMING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE
WEDGE ERODES...WHILE HOLDING STEADY ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS RANGING
FROM MID 50S NORTH(EVENING)TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

LOOKING AT TEMPS WAY UP IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY WITH
DEEP SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
>6C AND FORECAST CAPES OF ~1K JOULES. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE
DECENT...BUT NO GOOD TRIGGERING MECHANISM ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW AND WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAKE THUNDER A LITTLE LESS
LIKELY...WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER
DURING THE FAVORED MAX HEATING INTO EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCES OF ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH
MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME
CLEARING WILL BE UNDERWAY IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE WITH MINS IN THE
MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY WILL BE AUGMENTED BY AN
ADDITIONAL STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE LOOKS QUITE
VIGOROUS AND EXPECT SHOWERS OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS ACCOMPANYING
THE WAVE...MAINLY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SHORT
WAVE LIFTS OUT LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY CRASH AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...MINS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 30S TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND.

COOL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH
SATURDAY AS OUR COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE NORTHWEST IN THE
UPPER 40S...WITH MOSTLY LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL PRODUCE NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AND MORNING LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING WILL EDGE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW FREEZING OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTHEAST. STRONG SUN AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW RECOVERY
TO COMMENCE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 60S ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 742 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: OUTSIDE OF SOME SCATTERED STRATUS THIS
MORNING...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z.  A SURGE OF WARM
MOIST ADVECTION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO AND TN VALLEY
WILL YIELD INCREASING THREAT OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES.

LONG TERM: SUB-VFR CEILINGS RANGING FROM IFR IN THE WEST TO MVFR IN
THE EAST COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ATTENDANT TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR
CEILINGS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY-FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 241142
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
742 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY...AND WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY: A STRONG ~1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPSTAIRS...IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/JERSEY COAST LATER THIS
MORNING...A TRAILING SECONDARY STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW
CLOSELY ON IT`S HEELS...AND WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THIS AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT
TO OUR NORTH BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SELY RETURN FLOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RETREATING HIGH WILL AIDE IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN TIER...WHILE THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL STAY UNDERNEATH A COOLER NELY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL RESULT A WIDE RANGE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM MID TO
UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

TONIGHT: LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE WE WILL ONLY RECEIVE A GLANCING SHOT...
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET/LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE FAR NW/NORTHERN ZONES. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FROM UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 NORTH TO UPPER 40S/NEAR 50.

&&


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...

STRONG 1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS INTO THE
RESIDUAL DRY COOL AT THE SURFACE LATE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
HELP TO ESTABLISH IN-SITU WEDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
PIEDMONT WITH CONTINUED MOIST UPGLIDE SUPPORTING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

A SECONDARY AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL HELP TO LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED STRONG WAA WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT(MUCAPE 400-600 J/KG)WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGH TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WARMING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE
WEDGE ERODES...WHILE HOLDING STEADY ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS RANGING
FROM MID 50S NORTH(EVENING)TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

LOOKING AT TEMPS WAY UP IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY WITH
DEEP SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
>6C AND FORECAST CAPES OF ~1K JOULES. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE
DECENT...BUT NO GOOD TRIGGERING MECHANISM ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW AND WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAKE THUNDER A LITTLE LESS
LIKELY...WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER
DURING THE FAVORED MAX HEATING INTO EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCES OF ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH
MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME
CLEARING WILL BE UNDERWAY IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE WITH MINS IN THE
MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY WILL BE AUGMENTED BY AN
ADDITIONAL STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE LOOKS QUITE
VIGOROUS AND EXPECT SHOWERS OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS ACCOMPANYING
THE WAVE...MAINLY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SHORT
WAVE LIFTS OUT LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY CRASH AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...MINS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 30S TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND.

COOL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH
SATURDAY AS OUR COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE NORTHWEST IN THE
UPPER 40S...WITH MOSTLY LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL PRODUCE NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AND MORNING LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING WILL EDGE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW FREEZING OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTHEAST. STRONG SUN AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW RECOVERY
TO COMMENCE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 60S ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 742 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: OUTSIDE OF SOME SCATTERED STRATUS THIS
MORNING...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z.  A SURGE OF WARM
MOIST ADVECTION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO AND TN VALLEY
WILL YIELD INCREASING THREAT OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES.

LONG TERM: SUB-VFR CEILINGS RANGING FROM IFR IN THE WEST TO MVFR IN
THE EAST COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ATTENDANT TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR
CEILINGS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY-FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 241142
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
742 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY...AND WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY: A STRONG ~1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPSTAIRS...IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/JERSEY COAST LATER THIS
MORNING...A TRAILING SECONDARY STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW
CLOSELY ON IT`S HEELS...AND WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THIS AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT
TO OUR NORTH BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SELY RETURN FLOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RETREATING HIGH WILL AIDE IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN TIER...WHILE THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL STAY UNDERNEATH A COOLER NELY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL RESULT A WIDE RANGE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM MID TO
UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

TONIGHT: LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE WE WILL ONLY RECEIVE A GLANCING SHOT...
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET/LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE FAR NW/NORTHERN ZONES. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FROM UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 NORTH TO UPPER 40S/NEAR 50.

&&


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...

STRONG 1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS INTO THE
RESIDUAL DRY COOL AT THE SURFACE LATE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
HELP TO ESTABLISH IN-SITU WEDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
PIEDMONT WITH CONTINUED MOIST UPGLIDE SUPPORTING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

A SECONDARY AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL HELP TO LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED STRONG WAA WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT(MUCAPE 400-600 J/KG)WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGH TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WARMING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE
WEDGE ERODES...WHILE HOLDING STEADY ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS RANGING
FROM MID 50S NORTH(EVENING)TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

LOOKING AT TEMPS WAY UP IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY WITH
DEEP SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
>6C AND FORECAST CAPES OF ~1K JOULES. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE
DECENT...BUT NO GOOD TRIGGERING MECHANISM ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW AND WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAKE THUNDER A LITTLE LESS
LIKELY...WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER
DURING THE FAVORED MAX HEATING INTO EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCES OF ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH
MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME
CLEARING WILL BE UNDERWAY IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE WITH MINS IN THE
MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY WILL BE AUGMENTED BY AN
ADDITIONAL STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE LOOKS QUITE
VIGOROUS AND EXPECT SHOWERS OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS ACCOMPANYING
THE WAVE...MAINLY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SHORT
WAVE LIFTS OUT LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY CRASH AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...MINS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 30S TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND.

COOL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH
SATURDAY AS OUR COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE NORTHWEST IN THE
UPPER 40S...WITH MOSTLY LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL PRODUCE NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AND MORNING LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING WILL EDGE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW FREEZING OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTHEAST. STRONG SUN AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW RECOVERY
TO COMMENCE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 60S ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 742 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: OUTSIDE OF SOME SCATTERED STRATUS THIS
MORNING...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z.  A SURGE OF WARM
MOIST ADVECTION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO AND TN VALLEY
WILL YIELD INCREASING THREAT OF SUB-VFR CEILINGS IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES.

LONG TERM: SUB-VFR CEILINGS RANGING FROM IFR IN THE WEST TO MVFR IN
THE EAST COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION ATTENDANT TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR
CEILINGS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY-FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240809
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
407 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY...AND WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY: A STRONG ~1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPSTAIRS...IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/JERSEY COAST LATER THIS
MORNING...A TRAILING SECONDARY STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW
CLOSELY ON IT`S HEELS...AND WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THIS AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT
TO OUR NORTH BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SELY RETURN FLOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RETREATING HIGH WILL AIDE IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN TIER...WHILE THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL STAY UNDERNEATH A COOLER NELY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL RESULT A WIDE RANGE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM MID TO
UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

TONIGHT: LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE WE WILL ONLY RECEIVE A GLANCING SHOT...
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET/LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE FAR NW/NORTHERN ZONES. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FROM UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 NORTH TO UPPER 40S/NEAR 50.

&&


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...

STRONG 1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS INTO THE
RESIDUAL DRY COOL AT THE SURFACE LATE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
HELP TO ESTABLISH IN-SITU WEDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
PIEDMONT WITH CONTINUED MOIST UPGLIDE SUPPORTING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

A SECONDARY AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL HELP TO LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED STRONG WAA WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT(MUCAPE 400-600 J/KG)WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGH TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WARMING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE
WEDGE ERODES...WHILE HOLDING STEADY ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS RANGING
FROM MID 50S NORTH(EVENING)TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

LOOKING AT TEMPS WAY UP IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY WITH
DEEP SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
>6C AND FORECAST CAPES OF ~1K JOULES. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE
DECENT...BUT NO GOOD TRIGGERING MECHANISM ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW AND WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAKE THUNDER A LITTLE LESS
LIKELY...WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER
DURING THE FAVORED MAX HEATING INTO EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCES OF ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH
MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME
CLEARING WILL BE UNDERWAY IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE WITH MINS IN THE
MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY WILL BE AUGMENTED BY AN
ADDITIONAL STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE LOOKS QUITE
VIGOROUS AND EXPECT SHOWERS OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS ACCOMPANYING
THE WAVE...MAINLY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SHORT
WAVE LIFTS OUT LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY CRASH AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...MINS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 30S TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND.

COOL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH
SATURDAY AS OUR COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE NORTHWEST IN THE
UPPER 40S...WITH MOSTLY LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL PRODUCE NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AND MORNING LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING WILL EDGE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW FREEZING OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTHEAST. STRONG SUN AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW RECOVERY
TO COMMENCE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 60S ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 925MB FLOW COULD ADVECT
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR VFR STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT 11U-3.9U MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO STRATUS AREAS OF
STRATUS OF INTEREST...1)AN EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK ALIGNED ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MTNS...2)A MUCH SMALLER AREA ON STRATUS ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 08 TO 12Z
FROM MVFR CEILINGS AT KINT AND KGSO GIVEN LARGER SPATIAL EXTENT OF
LOW CEILINGS. OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE ALL OTHER TAF SITES VFR AND WILL
WILL MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS AS AMEND/UPDATE AS NEEDED. WITH
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST.


LONG TERM: LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL YIELD INCREASING THREAT OF SUB-VFR
CEILINGS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ATTENDANT TO A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CEILINGS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY-FRIDAY IN ADVANCE AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240809
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
407 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A WARM
FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY...AND WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY: A STRONG ~1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPSTAIRS...IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/JERSEY COAST LATER THIS
MORNING...A TRAILING SECONDARY STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW
CLOSELY ON IT`S HEELS...AND WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THIS AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT
TO OUR NORTH BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SELY RETURN FLOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RETREATING HIGH WILL AIDE IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN TIER...WHILE THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL STAY UNDERNEATH A COOLER NELY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL RESULT A WIDE RANGE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM MID TO
UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

TONIGHT: LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE WE WILL ONLY RECEIVE A GLANCING SHOT...
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET/LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE FAR NW/NORTHERN ZONES. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FROM UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 NORTH TO UPPER 40S/NEAR 50.

&&


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...

STRONG 1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS INTO THE
RESIDUAL DRY COOL AT THE SURFACE LATE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
HELP TO ESTABLISH IN-SITU WEDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
PIEDMONT WITH CONTINUED MOIST UPGLIDE SUPPORTING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

A SECONDARY AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL HELP TO LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED STRONG WAA WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT(MUCAPE 400-600 J/KG)WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGH TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WARMING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE
WEDGE ERODES...WHILE HOLDING STEADY ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS RANGING
FROM MID 50S NORTH(EVENING)TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

LOOKING AT TEMPS WAY UP IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY WITH
DEEP SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
>6C AND FORECAST CAPES OF ~1K JOULES. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE
DECENT...BUT NO GOOD TRIGGERING MECHANISM ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW AND WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAKE THUNDER A LITTLE LESS
LIKELY...WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER
DURING THE FAVORED MAX HEATING INTO EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCES OF ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH
MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME
CLEARING WILL BE UNDERWAY IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE WITH MINS IN THE
MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY WILL BE AUGMENTED BY AN
ADDITIONAL STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE LOOKS QUITE
VIGOROUS AND EXPECT SHOWERS OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS ACCOMPANYING
THE WAVE...MAINLY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SHORT
WAVE LIFTS OUT LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY CRASH AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...MINS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 30S TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND.

COOL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH
SATURDAY AS OUR COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE NORTHWEST IN THE
UPPER 40S...WITH MOSTLY LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL PRODUCE NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AND MORNING LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING WILL EDGE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW FREEZING OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTHEAST. STRONG SUN AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW RECOVERY
TO COMMENCE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 60S ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 925MB FLOW COULD ADVECT
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR VFR STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT 11U-3.9U MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO STRATUS AREAS OF
STRATUS OF INTEREST...1)AN EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK ALIGNED ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MTNS...2)A MUCH SMALLER AREA ON STRATUS ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 08 TO 12Z
FROM MVFR CEILINGS AT KINT AND KGSO GIVEN LARGER SPATIAL EXTENT OF
LOW CEILINGS. OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE ALL OTHER TAF SITES VFR AND WILL
WILL MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS AS AMEND/UPDATE AS NEEDED. WITH
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST.


LONG TERM: LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL YIELD INCREASING THREAT OF SUB-VFR
CEILINGS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ATTENDANT TO A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CEILINGS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY-FRIDAY IN ADVANCE AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240748
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
345 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL CONTROL THE PATTERN FOR MIDWEEK
BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE IN LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY: A STRONG ~1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPSTAIRS...IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/JERSEY COAST LATER THIS
MORNING...A TRAILING SECONDARY STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW
CLOSELY ON IT`S HEELS...AND WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THIS AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT
TO OUR NORTH BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SELY RETURN FLOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RETREATING HIGH WILL AIDE IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN TIER...WHILE THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL STAY UNDERNEATH A COOLER NELY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL RESULT A WIDE RANGE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM MID TO
UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

TONIGHT: LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE WE WILL ONLY RECEIVE A GLANCING SHOT...
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET/LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE FAR NW/NORTHERN ZONES. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FROM UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 NORTH TO UPPER 40S/NEAR 50.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...

TO BE ISSUED BY 400 AM...

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

LOOKING AT TEMPS WAY UP IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY WITH
DEEP SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
>6C AND FORECAST CAPES OF ~1K JOULES. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE
DECENT...BUT NO GOOD TRIGGERING MECHANISM ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW AND WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAKE THUNDER A LITTLE LESS
LIKELY...WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER
DURING THE FAVORED MAX HEATING INTO EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCES OF ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH
MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME
CLEARING WILL BE UNDERWAY IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE WITH MINS IN THE
MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY WILL BE AUGMENTED BY AN
ADDITIONAL STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE LOOKS QUITE
VIGOROUS AND EXPECT SHOWERS OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS ACCOMPANYING
THE WAVE...MAINLY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SHORT
WAVE LIFTS OUT LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY CRASH AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...MINS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 30S TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND.

COOL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH
SATURDAY AS OUR COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE NORTHWEST IN THE
UPPER 40S...WITH MOSTLY LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL PRODUCE NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AND MORNING LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING WILL EDGE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW FREEZING OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTHEAST. STRONG SUN AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW RECOVERY
TO COMMENCE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 60S ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 925MB FLOW COULD ADVECT
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR VFR STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT 11U-3.9U MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO STRATUS AREAS OF
STRATUS OF INTEREST...1)AN EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK ALIGNED ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MTNS...2)A MUCH SMALLER AREA ON STRATUS ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 08 TO 12Z
FROM MVFR CEILINGS AT KINT AND KGSO GIVEN LARGER SPATIAL EXTENT OF
LOW CEILINGS. OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE ALL OTHER TAF SITES VFR AND WILL
WILL MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS AS AMEND/UPDATE AS NEEDED. WITH
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST.


LONG TERM: LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL YIELD INCREASING THREAT OF SUB-VFR
CEILINGS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ATTENDANT TO A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CEILINGS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY-FRIDAY IN ADVANCE AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 240748
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
345 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL CONTROL THE PATTERN FOR MIDWEEK
BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE IN LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY: A STRONG ~1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPSTAIRS...IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/JERSEY COAST LATER THIS
MORNING...A TRAILING SECONDARY STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW
CLOSELY ON IT`S HEELS...AND WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THIS AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT
TO OUR NORTH BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SELY RETURN FLOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RETREATING HIGH WILL AIDE IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN TIER...WHILE THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL STAY UNDERNEATH A COOLER NELY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL RESULT A WIDE RANGE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM MID TO
UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

TONIGHT: LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE WE WILL ONLY RECEIVE A GLANCING SHOT...
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET/LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE FAR NW/NORTHERN ZONES. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FROM UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 NORTH TO UPPER 40S/NEAR 50.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...

TO BE ISSUED BY 400 AM...

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

LOOKING AT TEMPS WAY UP IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY WITH
DEEP SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
>6C AND FORECAST CAPES OF ~1K JOULES. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE
DECENT...BUT NO GOOD TRIGGERING MECHANISM ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW AND WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAKE THUNDER A LITTLE LESS
LIKELY...WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER
DURING THE FAVORED MAX HEATING INTO EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCES OF ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH
MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME
CLEARING WILL BE UNDERWAY IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE WITH MINS IN THE
MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY WILL BE AUGMENTED BY AN
ADDITIONAL STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE LOOKS QUITE
VIGOROUS AND EXPECT SHOWERS OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS ACCOMPANYING
THE WAVE...MAINLY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SHORT
WAVE LIFTS OUT LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY CRASH AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...MINS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 30S TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND.

COOL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH
SATURDAY AS OUR COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE NORTHWEST IN THE
UPPER 40S...WITH MOSTLY LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL PRODUCE NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AND MORNING LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING WILL EDGE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW FREEZING OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTHEAST. STRONG SUN AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW RECOVERY
TO COMMENCE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 60S ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 925MB FLOW COULD ADVECT
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR VFR STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT 11U-3.9U MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO STRATUS AREAS OF
STRATUS OF INTEREST...1)AN EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK ALIGNED ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MTNS...2)A MUCH SMALLER AREA ON STRATUS ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 08 TO 12Z
FROM MVFR CEILINGS AT KINT AND KGSO GIVEN LARGER SPATIAL EXTENT OF
LOW CEILINGS. OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE ALL OTHER TAF SITES VFR AND WILL
WILL MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS AS AMEND/UPDATE AS NEEDED. WITH
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST.


LONG TERM: LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL YIELD INCREASING THREAT OF SUB-VFR
CEILINGS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ATTENDANT TO A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CEILINGS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY-FRIDAY IN ADVANCE AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240748
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
345 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL CONTROL THE PATTERN FOR MIDWEEK
BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE IN LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY: A STRONG ~1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPSTAIRS...IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/JERSEY COAST LATER THIS
MORNING...A TRAILING SECONDARY STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW
CLOSELY ON IT`S HEELS...AND WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THIS AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT
TO OUR NORTH BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SELY RETURN FLOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RETREATING HIGH WILL AIDE IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN TIER...WHILE THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL STAY UNDERNEATH A COOLER NELY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL RESULT A WIDE RANGE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM MID TO
UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

TONIGHT: LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE WE WILL ONLY RECEIVE A GLANCING SHOT...
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET/LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE FAR NW/NORTHERN ZONES. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FROM UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 NORTH TO UPPER 40S/NEAR 50.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...

TO BE ISSUED BY 400 AM...

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

LOOKING AT TEMPS WAY UP IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY WITH
DEEP SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
>6C AND FORECAST CAPES OF ~1K JOULES. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE
DECENT...BUT NO GOOD TRIGGERING MECHANISM ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW AND WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAKE THUNDER A LITTLE LESS
LIKELY...WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER
DURING THE FAVORED MAX HEATING INTO EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCES OF ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH
MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME
CLEARING WILL BE UNDERWAY IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE WITH MINS IN THE
MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY WILL BE AUGMENTED BY AN
ADDITIONAL STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE LOOKS QUITE
VIGOROUS AND EXPECT SHOWERS OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS ACCOMPANYING
THE WAVE...MAINLY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SHORT
WAVE LIFTS OUT LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY CRASH AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...MINS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 30S TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND.

COOL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH
SATURDAY AS OUR COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE NORTHWEST IN THE
UPPER 40S...WITH MOSTLY LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL PRODUCE NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AND MORNING LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING WILL EDGE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW FREEZING OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTHEAST. STRONG SUN AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW RECOVERY
TO COMMENCE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 60S ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 925MB FLOW COULD ADVECT
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR VFR STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT 11U-3.9U MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO STRATUS AREAS OF
STRATUS OF INTEREST...1)AN EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK ALIGNED ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MTNS...2)A MUCH SMALLER AREA ON STRATUS ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 08 TO 12Z
FROM MVFR CEILINGS AT KINT AND KGSO GIVEN LARGER SPATIAL EXTENT OF
LOW CEILINGS. OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE ALL OTHER TAF SITES VFR AND WILL
WILL MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS AS AMEND/UPDATE AS NEEDED. WITH
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST.


LONG TERM: LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL YIELD INCREASING THREAT OF SUB-VFR
CEILINGS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ATTENDANT TO A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CEILINGS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY-FRIDAY IN ADVANCE AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240748
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
345 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL CONTROL THE PATTERN FOR MIDWEEK
BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE IN LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY: A STRONG ~1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPSTAIRS...IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/JERSEY COAST LATER THIS
MORNING...A TRAILING SECONDARY STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW
CLOSELY ON IT`S HEELS...AND WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THIS AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT
TO OUR NORTH BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SELY RETURN FLOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RETREATING HIGH WILL AIDE IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN TIER...WHILE THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL STAY UNDERNEATH A COOLER NELY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL RESULT A WIDE RANGE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM MID TO
UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

TONIGHT: LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...REACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE WE WILL ONLY RECEIVE A GLANCING SHOT...
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET/LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/DRIZZLE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE FAR NW/NORTHERN ZONES. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FROM UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 NORTH TO UPPER 40S/NEAR 50.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...

TO BE ISSUED BY 400 AM...

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

LOOKING AT TEMPS WAY UP IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THURSDAY WITH
DEEP SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
>6C AND FORECAST CAPES OF ~1K JOULES. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE
DECENT...BUT NO GOOD TRIGGERING MECHANISM ALONG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW AND WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAKE THUNDER A LITTLE LESS
LIKELY...WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER
DURING THE FAVORED MAX HEATING INTO EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCES OF ANAFRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH
MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AT LEAST SOME
CLEARING WILL BE UNDERWAY IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE WITH MINS IN THE
MID 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY WILL BE AUGMENTED BY AN
ADDITIONAL STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE LOOKS QUITE
VIGOROUS AND EXPECT SHOWERS OUT OF THE STRATOCUMULUS ACCOMPANYING
THE WAVE...MAINLY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SHORT
WAVE LIFTS OUT LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY CRASH AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SATURDAY
MORNING...MINS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 30S TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND.

COOL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH
SATURDAY AS OUR COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE NORTHWEST IN THE
UPPER 40S...WITH MOSTLY LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD WILL PRODUCE NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AND MORNING LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING WILL EDGE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW FREEZING OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTHEAST. STRONG SUN AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL ALLOW RECOVERY
TO COMMENCE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WARMING TO MOSTLY MID 60S ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 925MB FLOW COULD ADVECT
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR VFR STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT 11U-3.9U MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO STRATUS AREAS OF
STRATUS OF INTEREST...1)AN EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK ALIGNED ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MTNS...2)A MUCH SMALLER AREA ON STRATUS ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 08 TO 12Z
FROM MVFR CEILINGS AT KINT AND KGSO GIVEN LARGER SPATIAL EXTENT OF
LOW CEILINGS. OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE ALL OTHER TAF SITES VFR AND WILL
WILL MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS AS AMEND/UPDATE AS NEEDED. WITH
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST.


LONG TERM: LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL YIELD INCREASING THREAT OF SUB-VFR
CEILINGS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ATTENDANT TO A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CEILINGS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY-FRIDAY IN ADVANCE AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 240546
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL CONTROL THE PATTERN FOR MIDWEEK
BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE IN LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO CENTRAL NC FROM
THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...ADVECTING COOL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION.
ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE WILL SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN VA...INCREASING CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO LOW 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL TRY TO WEDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS BUT THE HIGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OR IN AN IDEAL
POSITION FOR DAMMING...A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST. A SECONDARY HIGH WILL
TRY TO FORM ALONG THE DELMARVA LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS COULD
PRESENT MORE OF AN IN SITU DAMMING SCENARIO ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 290K SURFACE. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY ZONAL. THEREFORE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL VARY ACROSS THE CWA WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
OVER THE TRIAD AND A MORE NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE NORTHEAST.
THUS PARTIALLY EXPLAINING THE DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST HIGHS AT AROUND
5 KTS. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HAVE INCREASED LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

GRADUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BY 06Z THURSDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS
WEDNESDAY SUGGEST A SHARP INVERSION THROUGH THE MORNING WEDNESDAY
WITH MAINLY DRY AIR ABOVE...SUGGESTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY A PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST JUST A
LITTLE DEEPER COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SUGGEST SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EROSION...SLOWEST IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND WHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME
CAPPING TO MODESTLY DEEP CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE CAP
DOES ERODE ENOUGH TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER THAT POSSIBLY A SHOWER
COULD OCCUR THERE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE
TRENDED WARMER BUT STILL EXPECT THE SAME PATTERN OF HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 TOWARD THE TRIAD AND NOTICEABLY WARMER TOWARD KFAY
AND KCTZ...AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS GOOD VORTICITY ADVECTION AT 700MB ALONG
WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE TIMING OF
DEEPENING MOISTURE DIFFERS ON THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...BUT
THEY ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH TO SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WEST-TO-EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THESE CHANCES COULD
END UP BEING LIKELY OR EVEN CATEGORICAL AT SOME POINT PRIOR TO THEN.
CAPE IS VERY SKINNY ON BUFR SOUNDINGS BUT NON-ZERO...AND IF THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE AND DIFFLUENCE REMAIN AS FORECAST A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL LITTLE IN THE TRIAD...OVERALL THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LOWS 55 TO 60.

THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY EARLY AND THERE IS
FORECAST BY THE GFS A PERIOD OF CONVERGENCE ALOFT BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT GETS CLOSER LATER IN THE DAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS A LITTLE SLOWER...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN GOOD WARMING
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...IN FACT...SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
GOOD BIT OF SUN ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 FOR A TIME WHICH COULD HELP
TO ELEVATE TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR 80 TO 85 THERE. FOR THIS FORECAST
WILL HAVE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NEAR 80 IN THE
TRIANGLE...WITH SOLID LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES IN A MODESTLY
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND. IF THE FRONTAL TIMING SLOWS EVEN A LITTLE MORE
MUCH OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE DRY...BUT FOR THIS FORECAST WILL
RETAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM THEN...LOW CHANCES
TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 AND HIGHER CHANCES TOWARD THE TRIAD. THURSDAY
COULD BE A DAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS MOVING EAST FOLLOWED BY A DECENT
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH RENEWED CHANCES LATER IN THE
DAY COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL ON THE GFS
INTO THURSDAY EVENING...MLCAPE THROUGH THE LOWEST 2KM LESS THAN
500J/KG...BUT THE 0-3KM SHEAR IS GOOD APPROACHING 60KT WITH THE
FRONT. THE NAM IS MORE UNSTABLE...BUT JET SUPPORT SEEMS TO BE
LAGGING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING PAST CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
EVENING AS COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE
EVENING. THE CAPE IS SKINNY...AND THOSE COARSE SOUNDINGS BECOME
STABLE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR LINGERING SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND THE CANADIAN AND DGEX ARE VERY SLOW...WHICH WOULD CARRY CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. UNLESS THE FRONTAL TIMING
CONTINUES TO SLOW...THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION CURRENTLY IS LINGERING
MORNING SHOWERS MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1...BUT FOR THIS
FORECAST WILL NOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AND CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S.
1 DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES...
CONSIDERING THE SLOWEST SOLUTIONS THEN A LINGERING SHOWER COULD
CONTINUE IN THE EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...
BUT IF THE LATEST GFS VERIFIES WITH K INDICES FALLING GREATLY...
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

THE BIGGEST CHANGES FROM MODEL GUIDANCE OF SUNDAY IS OVERALL DRIER
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE DETAILS ON THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DRIER
WITH REGARD TO THE MEAN MOISTURE AND WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER OFFSHORE. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...QPF HAS
TRENDED TO VERY LIGHT OR NIL AND PLANNING NOW TO FEATURE A DRY
FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AFTER EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH BY SUNDAY...MAKING
FOR A RETURN TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. SURFACE
RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
RETURN IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS HAS A FLATTER
FLOW. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH ITS STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE...THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES PRECEDING THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL OPT TO SHOW JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AND LEAVE
OUT PRECIPITATION ON THE SEVENTH DAY. IF IT WOULD OCCUR...IT SHOULD
BE LIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIMINISH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT HEADS SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

THE TIGHTEST SURFACE GRADIENTS DURING THE PERIOD ARE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EARLY SATURDAY...AND THEN SUNDAY WHEN A
LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF GUSTS SHOULD BE OBSERVED. TEMPERATURES IN
THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL AVERAGE BELOW THE
NORMALS OF AROUND 65 TO 70 FOR LATE MARCH. COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE
SATURDAY WITH THE LOWEST 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUGGESTIVE OF ONLY
THE MID 40S IN THE TRIAD. WILL LEAN A CATEGORY ABOVE THAT AND CLOSER
TO THE MOS CONSENSUS...APPROACHING 50 IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD AND FAR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND 50 TO 55 ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY NIGHT COULD
FEATURE SOME UPPER 20S FOR LOWS IF CLOUDS DIMINISH AS EXPECTED.
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECTING HIGHS AROUND
NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 925MB FLOW COULD ADVECT
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR VFR STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT 11U-3.9U MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO STRATUS AREAS OF
STRATUS OF INTEREST...1)AN EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK ALIGNED ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MTNS...2)A MUCH SMALLER AREA ON STRATUS ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 08 TO 12Z
FROM MVFR CEILINGS AT KINT AND KGSO GIVEN LARGER SPATIAL EXTENT OF
LOW CEILINGS. OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE ALL OTHER TAF SITES VFR AND WILL
WILL MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS AS AMEND/UPDATE AS NEEDED. WITH
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST.


LONG TERM: LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL YIELD INCREASING THREAT OF SUB-VFR
CEILINGS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ATTENDANT TO A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CEILINGS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY-FRIDAY IN ADVANCE AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.



&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 240546
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL CONTROL THE PATTERN FOR MIDWEEK
BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE IN LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO CENTRAL NC FROM
THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...ADVECTING COOL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION.
ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE WILL SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN VA...INCREASING CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO LOW 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL TRY TO WEDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS BUT THE HIGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OR IN AN IDEAL
POSITION FOR DAMMING...A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST. A SECONDARY HIGH WILL
TRY TO FORM ALONG THE DELMARVA LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS COULD
PRESENT MORE OF AN IN SITU DAMMING SCENARIO ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 290K SURFACE. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY ZONAL. THEREFORE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL VARY ACROSS THE CWA WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
OVER THE TRIAD AND A MORE NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE NORTHEAST.
THUS PARTIALLY EXPLAINING THE DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST HIGHS AT AROUND
5 KTS. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HAVE INCREASED LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

GRADUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BY 06Z THURSDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS
WEDNESDAY SUGGEST A SHARP INVERSION THROUGH THE MORNING WEDNESDAY
WITH MAINLY DRY AIR ABOVE...SUGGESTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY A PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST JUST A
LITTLE DEEPER COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SUGGEST SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EROSION...SLOWEST IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND WHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME
CAPPING TO MODESTLY DEEP CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE CAP
DOES ERODE ENOUGH TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER THAT POSSIBLY A SHOWER
COULD OCCUR THERE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE
TRENDED WARMER BUT STILL EXPECT THE SAME PATTERN OF HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 TOWARD THE TRIAD AND NOTICEABLY WARMER TOWARD KFAY
AND KCTZ...AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS GOOD VORTICITY ADVECTION AT 700MB ALONG
WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE TIMING OF
DEEPENING MOISTURE DIFFERS ON THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...BUT
THEY ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH TO SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WEST-TO-EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THESE CHANCES COULD
END UP BEING LIKELY OR EVEN CATEGORICAL AT SOME POINT PRIOR TO THEN.
CAPE IS VERY SKINNY ON BUFR SOUNDINGS BUT NON-ZERO...AND IF THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE AND DIFFLUENCE REMAIN AS FORECAST A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL LITTLE IN THE TRIAD...OVERALL THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LOWS 55 TO 60.

THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY EARLY AND THERE IS
FORECAST BY THE GFS A PERIOD OF CONVERGENCE ALOFT BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT GETS CLOSER LATER IN THE DAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS A LITTLE SLOWER...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN GOOD WARMING
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...IN FACT...SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
GOOD BIT OF SUN ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 FOR A TIME WHICH COULD HELP
TO ELEVATE TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR 80 TO 85 THERE. FOR THIS FORECAST
WILL HAVE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NEAR 80 IN THE
TRIANGLE...WITH SOLID LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES IN A MODESTLY
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND. IF THE FRONTAL TIMING SLOWS EVEN A LITTLE MORE
MUCH OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE DRY...BUT FOR THIS FORECAST WILL
RETAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM THEN...LOW CHANCES
TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 AND HIGHER CHANCES TOWARD THE TRIAD. THURSDAY
COULD BE A DAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS MOVING EAST FOLLOWED BY A DECENT
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH RENEWED CHANCES LATER IN THE
DAY COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL ON THE GFS
INTO THURSDAY EVENING...MLCAPE THROUGH THE LOWEST 2KM LESS THAN
500J/KG...BUT THE 0-3KM SHEAR IS GOOD APPROACHING 60KT WITH THE
FRONT. THE NAM IS MORE UNSTABLE...BUT JET SUPPORT SEEMS TO BE
LAGGING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING PAST CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
EVENING AS COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE
EVENING. THE CAPE IS SKINNY...AND THOSE COARSE SOUNDINGS BECOME
STABLE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR LINGERING SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND THE CANADIAN AND DGEX ARE VERY SLOW...WHICH WOULD CARRY CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. UNLESS THE FRONTAL TIMING
CONTINUES TO SLOW...THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION CURRENTLY IS LINGERING
MORNING SHOWERS MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1...BUT FOR THIS
FORECAST WILL NOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AND CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S.
1 DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES...
CONSIDERING THE SLOWEST SOLUTIONS THEN A LINGERING SHOWER COULD
CONTINUE IN THE EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...
BUT IF THE LATEST GFS VERIFIES WITH K INDICES FALLING GREATLY...
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

THE BIGGEST CHANGES FROM MODEL GUIDANCE OF SUNDAY IS OVERALL DRIER
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE DETAILS ON THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DRIER
WITH REGARD TO THE MEAN MOISTURE AND WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER OFFSHORE. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...QPF HAS
TRENDED TO VERY LIGHT OR NIL AND PLANNING NOW TO FEATURE A DRY
FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AFTER EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH BY SUNDAY...MAKING
FOR A RETURN TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. SURFACE
RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
RETURN IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS HAS A FLATTER
FLOW. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH ITS STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE...THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES PRECEDING THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL OPT TO SHOW JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AND LEAVE
OUT PRECIPITATION ON THE SEVENTH DAY. IF IT WOULD OCCUR...IT SHOULD
BE LIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIMINISH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT HEADS SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

THE TIGHTEST SURFACE GRADIENTS DURING THE PERIOD ARE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EARLY SATURDAY...AND THEN SUNDAY WHEN A
LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF GUSTS SHOULD BE OBSERVED. TEMPERATURES IN
THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL AVERAGE BELOW THE
NORMALS OF AROUND 65 TO 70 FOR LATE MARCH. COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE
SATURDAY WITH THE LOWEST 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUGGESTIVE OF ONLY
THE MID 40S IN THE TRIAD. WILL LEAN A CATEGORY ABOVE THAT AND CLOSER
TO THE MOS CONSENSUS...APPROACHING 50 IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD AND FAR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND 50 TO 55 ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY NIGHT COULD
FEATURE SOME UPPER 20S FOR LOWS IF CLOUDS DIMINISH AS EXPECTED.
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECTING HIGHS AROUND
NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 925MB FLOW COULD ADVECT
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR VFR STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT 11U-3.9U MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO STRATUS AREAS OF
STRATUS OF INTEREST...1)AN EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK ALIGNED ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MTNS...2)A MUCH SMALLER AREA ON STRATUS ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 08 TO 12Z
FROM MVFR CEILINGS AT KINT AND KGSO GIVEN LARGER SPATIAL EXTENT OF
LOW CEILINGS. OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE ALL OTHER TAF SITES VFR AND WILL
WILL MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS AS AMEND/UPDATE AS NEEDED. WITH
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST.


LONG TERM: LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL YIELD INCREASING THREAT OF SUB-VFR
CEILINGS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ATTENDANT TO A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CEILINGS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY-FRIDAY IN ADVANCE AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.



&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 240546
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL CONTROL THE PATTERN FOR MIDWEEK
BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE IN LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO CENTRAL NC FROM
THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...ADVECTING COOL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION.
ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE WILL SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN VA...INCREASING CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO LOW 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL TRY TO WEDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS BUT THE HIGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OR IN AN IDEAL
POSITION FOR DAMMING...A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST. A SECONDARY HIGH WILL
TRY TO FORM ALONG THE DELMARVA LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS COULD
PRESENT MORE OF AN IN SITU DAMMING SCENARIO ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 290K SURFACE. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY ZONAL. THEREFORE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL VARY ACROSS THE CWA WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
OVER THE TRIAD AND A MORE NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE NORTHEAST.
THUS PARTIALLY EXPLAINING THE DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST HIGHS AT AROUND
5 KTS. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HAVE INCREASED LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

GRADUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BY 06Z THURSDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS
WEDNESDAY SUGGEST A SHARP INVERSION THROUGH THE MORNING WEDNESDAY
WITH MAINLY DRY AIR ABOVE...SUGGESTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY A PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST JUST A
LITTLE DEEPER COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SUGGEST SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EROSION...SLOWEST IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND WHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME
CAPPING TO MODESTLY DEEP CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE CAP
DOES ERODE ENOUGH TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER THAT POSSIBLY A SHOWER
COULD OCCUR THERE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE
TRENDED WARMER BUT STILL EXPECT THE SAME PATTERN OF HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 TOWARD THE TRIAD AND NOTICEABLY WARMER TOWARD KFAY
AND KCTZ...AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS GOOD VORTICITY ADVECTION AT 700MB ALONG
WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE TIMING OF
DEEPENING MOISTURE DIFFERS ON THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...BUT
THEY ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH TO SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WEST-TO-EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THESE CHANCES COULD
END UP BEING LIKELY OR EVEN CATEGORICAL AT SOME POINT PRIOR TO THEN.
CAPE IS VERY SKINNY ON BUFR SOUNDINGS BUT NON-ZERO...AND IF THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE AND DIFFLUENCE REMAIN AS FORECAST A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL LITTLE IN THE TRIAD...OVERALL THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LOWS 55 TO 60.

THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY EARLY AND THERE IS
FORECAST BY THE GFS A PERIOD OF CONVERGENCE ALOFT BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT GETS CLOSER LATER IN THE DAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS A LITTLE SLOWER...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN GOOD WARMING
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...IN FACT...SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
GOOD BIT OF SUN ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 FOR A TIME WHICH COULD HELP
TO ELEVATE TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR 80 TO 85 THERE. FOR THIS FORECAST
WILL HAVE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NEAR 80 IN THE
TRIANGLE...WITH SOLID LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES IN A MODESTLY
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND. IF THE FRONTAL TIMING SLOWS EVEN A LITTLE MORE
MUCH OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE DRY...BUT FOR THIS FORECAST WILL
RETAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM THEN...LOW CHANCES
TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 AND HIGHER CHANCES TOWARD THE TRIAD. THURSDAY
COULD BE A DAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS MOVING EAST FOLLOWED BY A DECENT
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH RENEWED CHANCES LATER IN THE
DAY COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL ON THE GFS
INTO THURSDAY EVENING...MLCAPE THROUGH THE LOWEST 2KM LESS THAN
500J/KG...BUT THE 0-3KM SHEAR IS GOOD APPROACHING 60KT WITH THE
FRONT. THE NAM IS MORE UNSTABLE...BUT JET SUPPORT SEEMS TO BE
LAGGING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING PAST CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
EVENING AS COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE
EVENING. THE CAPE IS SKINNY...AND THOSE COARSE SOUNDINGS BECOME
STABLE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR LINGERING SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND THE CANADIAN AND DGEX ARE VERY SLOW...WHICH WOULD CARRY CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. UNLESS THE FRONTAL TIMING
CONTINUES TO SLOW...THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION CURRENTLY IS LINGERING
MORNING SHOWERS MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1...BUT FOR THIS
FORECAST WILL NOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AND CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S.
1 DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES...
CONSIDERING THE SLOWEST SOLUTIONS THEN A LINGERING SHOWER COULD
CONTINUE IN THE EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...
BUT IF THE LATEST GFS VERIFIES WITH K INDICES FALLING GREATLY...
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

THE BIGGEST CHANGES FROM MODEL GUIDANCE OF SUNDAY IS OVERALL DRIER
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE DETAILS ON THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DRIER
WITH REGARD TO THE MEAN MOISTURE AND WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER OFFSHORE. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...QPF HAS
TRENDED TO VERY LIGHT OR NIL AND PLANNING NOW TO FEATURE A DRY
FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AFTER EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH BY SUNDAY...MAKING
FOR A RETURN TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. SURFACE
RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
RETURN IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS HAS A FLATTER
FLOW. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH ITS STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE...THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES PRECEDING THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL OPT TO SHOW JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AND LEAVE
OUT PRECIPITATION ON THE SEVENTH DAY. IF IT WOULD OCCUR...IT SHOULD
BE LIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIMINISH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT HEADS SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

THE TIGHTEST SURFACE GRADIENTS DURING THE PERIOD ARE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EARLY SATURDAY...AND THEN SUNDAY WHEN A
LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF GUSTS SHOULD BE OBSERVED. TEMPERATURES IN
THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL AVERAGE BELOW THE
NORMALS OF AROUND 65 TO 70 FOR LATE MARCH. COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE
SATURDAY WITH THE LOWEST 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUGGESTIVE OF ONLY
THE MID 40S IN THE TRIAD. WILL LEAN A CATEGORY ABOVE THAT AND CLOSER
TO THE MOS CONSENSUS...APPROACHING 50 IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD AND FAR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND 50 TO 55 ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY NIGHT COULD
FEATURE SOME UPPER 20S FOR LOWS IF CLOUDS DIMINISH AS EXPECTED.
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECTING HIGHS AROUND
NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 925MB FLOW COULD ADVECT
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR VFR STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT 11U-3.9U MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO STRATUS AREAS OF
STRATUS OF INTEREST...1)AN EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK ALIGNED ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MTNS...2)A MUCH SMALLER AREA ON STRATUS ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 08 TO 12Z
FROM MVFR CEILINGS AT KINT AND KGSO GIVEN LARGER SPATIAL EXTENT OF
LOW CEILINGS. OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE ALL OTHER TAF SITES VFR AND WILL
WILL MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS AS AMEND/UPDATE AS NEEDED. WITH
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST.


LONG TERM: LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL YIELD INCREASING THREAT OF SUB-VFR
CEILINGS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ATTENDANT TO A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CEILINGS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY-FRIDAY IN ADVANCE AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.



&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240546
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL CONTROL THE PATTERN FOR MIDWEEK
BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE IN LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO CENTRAL NC FROM
THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...ADVECTING COOL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION.
ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE WILL SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN VA...INCREASING CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO LOW 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL TRY TO WEDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS BUT THE HIGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OR IN AN IDEAL
POSITION FOR DAMMING...A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST. A SECONDARY HIGH WILL
TRY TO FORM ALONG THE DELMARVA LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS COULD
PRESENT MORE OF AN IN SITU DAMMING SCENARIO ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 290K SURFACE. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY ZONAL. THEREFORE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL VARY ACROSS THE CWA WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
OVER THE TRIAD AND A MORE NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE NORTHEAST.
THUS PARTIALLY EXPLAINING THE DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST HIGHS AT AROUND
5 KTS. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HAVE INCREASED LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

GRADUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BY 06Z THURSDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS
WEDNESDAY SUGGEST A SHARP INVERSION THROUGH THE MORNING WEDNESDAY
WITH MAINLY DRY AIR ABOVE...SUGGESTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY A PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST JUST A
LITTLE DEEPER COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SUGGEST SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EROSION...SLOWEST IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND WHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME
CAPPING TO MODESTLY DEEP CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE CAP
DOES ERODE ENOUGH TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER THAT POSSIBLY A SHOWER
COULD OCCUR THERE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE
TRENDED WARMER BUT STILL EXPECT THE SAME PATTERN OF HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 TOWARD THE TRIAD AND NOTICEABLY WARMER TOWARD KFAY
AND KCTZ...AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS GOOD VORTICITY ADVECTION AT 700MB ALONG
WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE TIMING OF
DEEPENING MOISTURE DIFFERS ON THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...BUT
THEY ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH TO SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WEST-TO-EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THESE CHANCES COULD
END UP BEING LIKELY OR EVEN CATEGORICAL AT SOME POINT PRIOR TO THEN.
CAPE IS VERY SKINNY ON BUFR SOUNDINGS BUT NON-ZERO...AND IF THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE AND DIFFLUENCE REMAIN AS FORECAST A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL LITTLE IN THE TRIAD...OVERALL THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LOWS 55 TO 60.

THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY EARLY AND THERE IS
FORECAST BY THE GFS A PERIOD OF CONVERGENCE ALOFT BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT GETS CLOSER LATER IN THE DAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS A LITTLE SLOWER...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN GOOD WARMING
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...IN FACT...SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
GOOD BIT OF SUN ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 FOR A TIME WHICH COULD HELP
TO ELEVATE TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR 80 TO 85 THERE. FOR THIS FORECAST
WILL HAVE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NEAR 80 IN THE
TRIANGLE...WITH SOLID LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES IN A MODESTLY
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND. IF THE FRONTAL TIMING SLOWS EVEN A LITTLE MORE
MUCH OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE DRY...BUT FOR THIS FORECAST WILL
RETAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM THEN...LOW CHANCES
TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 AND HIGHER CHANCES TOWARD THE TRIAD. THURSDAY
COULD BE A DAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS MOVING EAST FOLLOWED BY A DECENT
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH RENEWED CHANCES LATER IN THE
DAY COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL ON THE GFS
INTO THURSDAY EVENING...MLCAPE THROUGH THE LOWEST 2KM LESS THAN
500J/KG...BUT THE 0-3KM SHEAR IS GOOD APPROACHING 60KT WITH THE
FRONT. THE NAM IS MORE UNSTABLE...BUT JET SUPPORT SEEMS TO BE
LAGGING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING PAST CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
EVENING AS COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE
EVENING. THE CAPE IS SKINNY...AND THOSE COARSE SOUNDINGS BECOME
STABLE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR LINGERING SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND THE CANADIAN AND DGEX ARE VERY SLOW...WHICH WOULD CARRY CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. UNLESS THE FRONTAL TIMING
CONTINUES TO SLOW...THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION CURRENTLY IS LINGERING
MORNING SHOWERS MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1...BUT FOR THIS
FORECAST WILL NOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AND CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S.
1 DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES...
CONSIDERING THE SLOWEST SOLUTIONS THEN A LINGERING SHOWER COULD
CONTINUE IN THE EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...
BUT IF THE LATEST GFS VERIFIES WITH K INDICES FALLING GREATLY...
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

THE BIGGEST CHANGES FROM MODEL GUIDANCE OF SUNDAY IS OVERALL DRIER
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE DETAILS ON THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DRIER
WITH REGARD TO THE MEAN MOISTURE AND WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER OFFSHORE. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...QPF HAS
TRENDED TO VERY LIGHT OR NIL AND PLANNING NOW TO FEATURE A DRY
FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AFTER EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH BY SUNDAY...MAKING
FOR A RETURN TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. SURFACE
RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
RETURN IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS HAS A FLATTER
FLOW. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH ITS STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE...THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES PRECEDING THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL OPT TO SHOW JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AND LEAVE
OUT PRECIPITATION ON THE SEVENTH DAY. IF IT WOULD OCCUR...IT SHOULD
BE LIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIMINISH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT HEADS SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

THE TIGHTEST SURFACE GRADIENTS DURING THE PERIOD ARE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EARLY SATURDAY...AND THEN SUNDAY WHEN A
LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF GUSTS SHOULD BE OBSERVED. TEMPERATURES IN
THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL AVERAGE BELOW THE
NORMALS OF AROUND 65 TO 70 FOR LATE MARCH. COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE
SATURDAY WITH THE LOWEST 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUGGESTIVE OF ONLY
THE MID 40S IN THE TRIAD. WILL LEAN A CATEGORY ABOVE THAT AND CLOSER
TO THE MOS CONSENSUS...APPROACHING 50 IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD AND FAR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND 50 TO 55 ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY NIGHT COULD
FEATURE SOME UPPER 20S FOR LOWS IF CLOUDS DIMINISH AS EXPECTED.
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECTING HIGHS AROUND
NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY 925MB FLOW COULD ADVECT
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR VFR STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT 11U-3.9U MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO STRATUS AREAS OF
STRATUS OF INTEREST...1)AN EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK ALIGNED ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MTNS...2)A MUCH SMALLER AREA ON STRATUS ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 08 TO 12Z
FROM MVFR CEILINGS AT KINT AND KGSO GIVEN LARGER SPATIAL EXTENT OF
LOW CEILINGS. OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE ALL OTHER TAF SITES VFR AND WILL
WILL MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS AS AMEND/UPDATE AS NEEDED. WITH
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST.


LONG TERM: LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL YIELD INCREASING THREAT OF SUB-VFR
CEILINGS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ATTENDANT TO A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CEILINGS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY-FRIDAY IN ADVANCE AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.



&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240151
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
951 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL CONTROL THE PATTERN FOR MIDWEEK
BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE IN LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO CENTRAL NC FROM
THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...ADVECTING COOL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION.
ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE WILL SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN VA...INCREASING CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO LOW 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL TRY TO WEDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS BUT THE HIGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OR IN AN IDEAL
POSITION FOR DAMMING...A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST. A SECONDARY HIGH WILL
TRY TO FORM ALONG THE DELMARVA LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS COULD
PRESENT MORE OF AN IN SITU DAMMING SCENARIO ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 290K SURFACE. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY ZONAL. THEREFORE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL VARY ACROSS THE CWA WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
OVER THE TRIAD AND A MORE NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE NORTHEAST.
THUS PARTIALLY EXPLAINING THE DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST HIGHS AT AROUND
5 KTS. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HAVE INCREASED LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

GRADUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BY 06Z THURSDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS
WEDNESDAY SUGGEST A SHARP INVERSION THROUGH THE MORNING WEDNESDAY
WITH MAINLY DRY AIR ABOVE...SUGGESTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY A PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST JUST A
LITTLE DEEPER COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SUGGEST SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EROSION...SLOWEST IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND WHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME
CAPPING TO MODESTLY DEEP CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE CAP
DOES ERODE ENOUGH TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER THAT POSSIBLY A SHOWER
COULD OCCUR THERE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE
TRENDED WARMER BUT STILL EXPECT THE SAME PATTERN OF HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 TOWARD THE TRIAD AND NOTICEABLY WARMER TOWARD KFAY
AND KCTZ...AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS GOOD VORTICITY ADVECTION AT 700MB ALONG
WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE TIMING OF
DEEPENING MOISTURE DIFFERS ON THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...BUT
THEY ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH TO SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WEST-TO-EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THESE CHANCES COULD
END UP BEING LIKELY OR EVEN CATEGORICAL AT SOME POINT PRIOR TO THEN.
CAPE IS VERY SKINNY ON BUFR SOUNDINGS BUT NON-ZERO...AND IF THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE AND DIFFLUENCE REMAIN AS FORECAST A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL LITTLE IN THE TRIAD...OVERALL THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LOWS 55 TO 60.

THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY EARLY AND THERE IS
FORECAST BY THE GFS A PERIOD OF CONVERGENCE ALOFT BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT GETS CLOSER LATER IN THE DAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS A LITTLE SLOWER...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN GOOD WARMING
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...IN FACT...SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
GOOD BIT OF SUN ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 FOR A TIME WHICH COULD HELP
TO ELEVATE TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR 80 TO 85 THERE. FOR THIS FORECAST
WILL HAVE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NEAR 80 IN THE
TRIANGLE...WITH SOLID LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES IN A MODESTLY
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND. IF THE FRONTAL TIMING SLOWS EVEN A LITTLE MORE
MUCH OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE DRY...BUT FOR THIS FORECAST WILL
RETAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM THEN...LOW CHANCES
TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 AND HIGHER CHANCES TOWARD THE TRIAD. THURSDAY
COULD BE A DAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS MOVING EAST FOLLOWED BY A DECENT
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH RENEWED CHANCES LATER IN THE
DAY COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL ON THE GFS
INTO THURSDAY EVENING...MLCAPE THROUGH THE LOWEST 2KM LESS THAN
500J/KG...BUT THE 0-3KM SHEAR IS GOOD APPROACHING 60KT WITH THE
FRONT. THE NAM IS MORE UNSTABLE...BUT JET SUPPORT SEEMS TO BE
LAGGING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING PAST CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
EVENING AS COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE
EVENING. THE CAPE IS SKINNY...AND THOSE COARSE SOUNDINGS BECOME
STABLE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR LINGERING SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND THE CANADIAN AND DGEX ARE VERY SLOW...WHICH WOULD CARRY CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. UNLESS THE FRONTAL TIMING
CONTINUES TO SLOW...THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION CURRENTLY IS LINGERING
MORNING SHOWERS MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1...BUT FOR THIS
FORECAST WILL NOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AND CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S.
1 DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES...
CONSIDERING THE SLOWEST SOLUTIONS THEN A LINGERING SHOWER COULD
CONTINUE IN THE EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...
BUT IF THE LATEST GFS VERIFIES WITH K INDICES FALLING GREATLY...
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

THE BIGGEST CHANGES FROM MODEL GUIDANCE OF SUNDAY IS OVERALL DRIER
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE DETAILS ON THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DRIER
WITH REGARD TO THE MEAN MOISTURE AND WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER OFFSHORE. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...QPF HAS
TRENDED TO VERY LIGHT OR NIL AND PLANNING NOW TO FEATURE A DRY
FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AFTER EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH BY SUNDAY...MAKING
FOR A RETURN TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. SURFACE
RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
RETURN IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS HAS A FLATTER
FLOW. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH ITS STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE...THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES PRECEDING THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL OPT TO SHOW JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AND LEAVE
OUT PRECIPITATION ON THE SEVENTH DAY. IF IT WOULD OCCUR...IT SHOULD
BE LIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIMINISH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT HEADS SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

THE TIGHTEST SURFACE GRADIENTS DURING THE PERIOD ARE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EARLY SATURDAY...AND THEN SUNDAY WHEN A
LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF GUSTS SHOULD BE OBSERVED. TEMPERATURES IN
THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL AVERAGE BELOW THE
NORMALS OF AROUND 65 TO 70 FOR LATE MARCH. COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE
SATURDAY WITH THE LOWEST 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUGGESTIVE OF ONLY
THE MID 40S IN THE TRIAD. WILL LEAN A CATEGORY ABOVE THAT AND CLOSER
TO THE MOS CONSENSUS...APPROACHING 50 IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD AND FAR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND 50 TO 55 ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY NIGHT COULD
FEATURE SOME UPPER 20S FOR LOWS IF CLOUDS DIMINISH AS EXPECTED.
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECTING HIGHS AROUND
NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 813 PM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONDITIONS AREA CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE FOOTHILLS AS
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THAT AREA... JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA... AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE CONSEQUENTLY INCREASES THERE
OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENT TO WHICH THESE CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP AND IF THEY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO AFFECT THE TRIAD.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.

LONG TERM: FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
MOIST CONVECTIVE RETURN FLOW REGIME MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...RAH/ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240151
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
951 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL CONTROL THE PATTERN FOR MIDWEEK
BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE IN LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO CENTRAL NC FROM
THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...ADVECTING COOL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION.
ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE WILL SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN VA...INCREASING CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO LOW 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL TRY TO WEDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS BUT THE HIGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OR IN AN IDEAL
POSITION FOR DAMMING...A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST. A SECONDARY HIGH WILL
TRY TO FORM ALONG THE DELMARVA LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS COULD
PRESENT MORE OF AN IN SITU DAMMING SCENARIO ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 290K SURFACE. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY ZONAL. THEREFORE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL VARY ACROSS THE CWA WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
OVER THE TRIAD AND A MORE NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE NORTHEAST.
THUS PARTIALLY EXPLAINING THE DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST HIGHS AT AROUND
5 KTS. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HAVE INCREASED LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

GRADUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BY 06Z THURSDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS
WEDNESDAY SUGGEST A SHARP INVERSION THROUGH THE MORNING WEDNESDAY
WITH MAINLY DRY AIR ABOVE...SUGGESTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY A PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST JUST A
LITTLE DEEPER COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SUGGEST SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EROSION...SLOWEST IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND WHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME
CAPPING TO MODESTLY DEEP CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE CAP
DOES ERODE ENOUGH TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER THAT POSSIBLY A SHOWER
COULD OCCUR THERE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE
TRENDED WARMER BUT STILL EXPECT THE SAME PATTERN OF HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 TOWARD THE TRIAD AND NOTICEABLY WARMER TOWARD KFAY
AND KCTZ...AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS GOOD VORTICITY ADVECTION AT 700MB ALONG
WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE TIMING OF
DEEPENING MOISTURE DIFFERS ON THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...BUT
THEY ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH TO SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WEST-TO-EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THESE CHANCES COULD
END UP BEING LIKELY OR EVEN CATEGORICAL AT SOME POINT PRIOR TO THEN.
CAPE IS VERY SKINNY ON BUFR SOUNDINGS BUT NON-ZERO...AND IF THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE AND DIFFLUENCE REMAIN AS FORECAST A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL LITTLE IN THE TRIAD...OVERALL THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LOWS 55 TO 60.

THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY EARLY AND THERE IS
FORECAST BY THE GFS A PERIOD OF CONVERGENCE ALOFT BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT GETS CLOSER LATER IN THE DAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS A LITTLE SLOWER...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN GOOD WARMING
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...IN FACT...SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
GOOD BIT OF SUN ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 FOR A TIME WHICH COULD HELP
TO ELEVATE TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR 80 TO 85 THERE. FOR THIS FORECAST
WILL HAVE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NEAR 80 IN THE
TRIANGLE...WITH SOLID LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES IN A MODESTLY
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND. IF THE FRONTAL TIMING SLOWS EVEN A LITTLE MORE
MUCH OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE DRY...BUT FOR THIS FORECAST WILL
RETAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM THEN...LOW CHANCES
TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 AND HIGHER CHANCES TOWARD THE TRIAD. THURSDAY
COULD BE A DAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS MOVING EAST FOLLOWED BY A DECENT
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH RENEWED CHANCES LATER IN THE
DAY COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL ON THE GFS
INTO THURSDAY EVENING...MLCAPE THROUGH THE LOWEST 2KM LESS THAN
500J/KG...BUT THE 0-3KM SHEAR IS GOOD APPROACHING 60KT WITH THE
FRONT. THE NAM IS MORE UNSTABLE...BUT JET SUPPORT SEEMS TO BE
LAGGING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING PAST CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
EVENING AS COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE
EVENING. THE CAPE IS SKINNY...AND THOSE COARSE SOUNDINGS BECOME
STABLE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR LINGERING SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND THE CANADIAN AND DGEX ARE VERY SLOW...WHICH WOULD CARRY CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. UNLESS THE FRONTAL TIMING
CONTINUES TO SLOW...THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION CURRENTLY IS LINGERING
MORNING SHOWERS MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1...BUT FOR THIS
FORECAST WILL NOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AND CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S.
1 DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES...
CONSIDERING THE SLOWEST SOLUTIONS THEN A LINGERING SHOWER COULD
CONTINUE IN THE EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...
BUT IF THE LATEST GFS VERIFIES WITH K INDICES FALLING GREATLY...
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

THE BIGGEST CHANGES FROM MODEL GUIDANCE OF SUNDAY IS OVERALL DRIER
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE DETAILS ON THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DRIER
WITH REGARD TO THE MEAN MOISTURE AND WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER OFFSHORE. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...QPF HAS
TRENDED TO VERY LIGHT OR NIL AND PLANNING NOW TO FEATURE A DRY
FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AFTER EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH BY SUNDAY...MAKING
FOR A RETURN TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. SURFACE
RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
RETURN IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS HAS A FLATTER
FLOW. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH ITS STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE...THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES PRECEDING THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL OPT TO SHOW JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AND LEAVE
OUT PRECIPITATION ON THE SEVENTH DAY. IF IT WOULD OCCUR...IT SHOULD
BE LIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIMINISH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT HEADS SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

THE TIGHTEST SURFACE GRADIENTS DURING THE PERIOD ARE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EARLY SATURDAY...AND THEN SUNDAY WHEN A
LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF GUSTS SHOULD BE OBSERVED. TEMPERATURES IN
THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL AVERAGE BELOW THE
NORMALS OF AROUND 65 TO 70 FOR LATE MARCH. COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE
SATURDAY WITH THE LOWEST 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUGGESTIVE OF ONLY
THE MID 40S IN THE TRIAD. WILL LEAN A CATEGORY ABOVE THAT AND CLOSER
TO THE MOS CONSENSUS...APPROACHING 50 IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD AND FAR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND 50 TO 55 ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY NIGHT COULD
FEATURE SOME UPPER 20S FOR LOWS IF CLOUDS DIMINISH AS EXPECTED.
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECTING HIGHS AROUND
NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 813 PM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONDITIONS AREA CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE FOOTHILLS AS
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THAT AREA... JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA... AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE CONSEQUENTLY INCREASES THERE
OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENT TO WHICH THESE CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP AND IF THEY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO AFFECT THE TRIAD.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.

LONG TERM: FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
MOIST CONVECTIVE RETURN FLOW REGIME MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...RAH/ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 240151
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
951 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL CONTROL THE PATTERN FOR MIDWEEK
BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE IN LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO CENTRAL NC FROM
THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...ADVECTING COOL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION.
ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE WILL SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN VA...INCREASING CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO LOW 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL TRY TO WEDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS BUT THE HIGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OR IN AN IDEAL
POSITION FOR DAMMING...A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST. A SECONDARY HIGH WILL
TRY TO FORM ALONG THE DELMARVA LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS COULD
PRESENT MORE OF AN IN SITU DAMMING SCENARIO ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 290K SURFACE. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY ZONAL. THEREFORE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL VARY ACROSS THE CWA WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
OVER THE TRIAD AND A MORE NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE NORTHEAST.
THUS PARTIALLY EXPLAINING THE DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST HIGHS AT AROUND
5 KTS. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HAVE INCREASED LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

GRADUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BY 06Z THURSDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS
WEDNESDAY SUGGEST A SHARP INVERSION THROUGH THE MORNING WEDNESDAY
WITH MAINLY DRY AIR ABOVE...SUGGESTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY A PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST JUST A
LITTLE DEEPER COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SUGGEST SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EROSION...SLOWEST IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND WHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME
CAPPING TO MODESTLY DEEP CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE CAP
DOES ERODE ENOUGH TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER THAT POSSIBLY A SHOWER
COULD OCCUR THERE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE
TRENDED WARMER BUT STILL EXPECT THE SAME PATTERN OF HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 TOWARD THE TRIAD AND NOTICEABLY WARMER TOWARD KFAY
AND KCTZ...AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS GOOD VORTICITY ADVECTION AT 700MB ALONG
WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE TIMING OF
DEEPENING MOISTURE DIFFERS ON THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...BUT
THEY ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH TO SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WEST-TO-EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THESE CHANCES COULD
END UP BEING LIKELY OR EVEN CATEGORICAL AT SOME POINT PRIOR TO THEN.
CAPE IS VERY SKINNY ON BUFR SOUNDINGS BUT NON-ZERO...AND IF THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE AND DIFFLUENCE REMAIN AS FORECAST A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL LITTLE IN THE TRIAD...OVERALL THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LOWS 55 TO 60.

THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY EARLY AND THERE IS
FORECAST BY THE GFS A PERIOD OF CONVERGENCE ALOFT BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT GETS CLOSER LATER IN THE DAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS A LITTLE SLOWER...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN GOOD WARMING
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...IN FACT...SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
GOOD BIT OF SUN ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 FOR A TIME WHICH COULD HELP
TO ELEVATE TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR 80 TO 85 THERE. FOR THIS FORECAST
WILL HAVE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NEAR 80 IN THE
TRIANGLE...WITH SOLID LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES IN A MODESTLY
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND. IF THE FRONTAL TIMING SLOWS EVEN A LITTLE MORE
MUCH OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE DRY...BUT FOR THIS FORECAST WILL
RETAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM THEN...LOW CHANCES
TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 AND HIGHER CHANCES TOWARD THE TRIAD. THURSDAY
COULD BE A DAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS MOVING EAST FOLLOWED BY A DECENT
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH RENEWED CHANCES LATER IN THE
DAY COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL ON THE GFS
INTO THURSDAY EVENING...MLCAPE THROUGH THE LOWEST 2KM LESS THAN
500J/KG...BUT THE 0-3KM SHEAR IS GOOD APPROACHING 60KT WITH THE
FRONT. THE NAM IS MORE UNSTABLE...BUT JET SUPPORT SEEMS TO BE
LAGGING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING PAST CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
EVENING AS COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE
EVENING. THE CAPE IS SKINNY...AND THOSE COARSE SOUNDINGS BECOME
STABLE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR LINGERING SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND THE CANADIAN AND DGEX ARE VERY SLOW...WHICH WOULD CARRY CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. UNLESS THE FRONTAL TIMING
CONTINUES TO SLOW...THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION CURRENTLY IS LINGERING
MORNING SHOWERS MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1...BUT FOR THIS
FORECAST WILL NOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AND CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S.
1 DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES...
CONSIDERING THE SLOWEST SOLUTIONS THEN A LINGERING SHOWER COULD
CONTINUE IN THE EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...
BUT IF THE LATEST GFS VERIFIES WITH K INDICES FALLING GREATLY...
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

THE BIGGEST CHANGES FROM MODEL GUIDANCE OF SUNDAY IS OVERALL DRIER
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE DETAILS ON THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DRIER
WITH REGARD TO THE MEAN MOISTURE AND WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER OFFSHORE. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...QPF HAS
TRENDED TO VERY LIGHT OR NIL AND PLANNING NOW TO FEATURE A DRY
FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AFTER EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH BY SUNDAY...MAKING
FOR A RETURN TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. SURFACE
RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
RETURN IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS HAS A FLATTER
FLOW. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH ITS STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE...THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES PRECEDING THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL OPT TO SHOW JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AND LEAVE
OUT PRECIPITATION ON THE SEVENTH DAY. IF IT WOULD OCCUR...IT SHOULD
BE LIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIMINISH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT HEADS SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

THE TIGHTEST SURFACE GRADIENTS DURING THE PERIOD ARE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EARLY SATURDAY...AND THEN SUNDAY WHEN A
LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF GUSTS SHOULD BE OBSERVED. TEMPERATURES IN
THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL AVERAGE BELOW THE
NORMALS OF AROUND 65 TO 70 FOR LATE MARCH. COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE
SATURDAY WITH THE LOWEST 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUGGESTIVE OF ONLY
THE MID 40S IN THE TRIAD. WILL LEAN A CATEGORY ABOVE THAT AND CLOSER
TO THE MOS CONSENSUS...APPROACHING 50 IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD AND FAR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND 50 TO 55 ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY NIGHT COULD
FEATURE SOME UPPER 20S FOR LOWS IF CLOUDS DIMINISH AS EXPECTED.
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECTING HIGHS AROUND
NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 813 PM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONDITIONS AREA CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE FOOTHILLS AS
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THAT AREA... JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA... AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE CONSEQUENTLY INCREASES THERE
OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENT TO WHICH THESE CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP AND IF THEY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO AFFECT THE TRIAD.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.

LONG TERM: FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
MOIST CONVECTIVE RETURN FLOW REGIME MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...RAH/ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240016
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
815 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL CONTROL THE PATTERN FOR MIDWEEK
BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE IN LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...

MUCH DRIER AIRMASS TO THE NORTH HAS MOVED IN AND HELPED TO SCOUR OUT
CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND AS A RESULT
HAVE CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO RISE CONSIDERABLY ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW 60S ARE NOW IN PLAY. CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO
HANG ON IN THE EAST WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLEST...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE NORTHERN I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY AND WILL EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
NORTHEAST TO LOW 60S SOUTHWEST.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME
LOW CLOUDS IS DWINDLING ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS
AND RAP MODEL FORECASTS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE NW
PIEDMONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH COULD HELP TO FORM
SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS VERY
LOW AT THIS TIME. THUS WILL LOWER TEMPS A BIT INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL TRY TO WEDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS BUT THE HIGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OR IN AN IDEAL
POSITION FOR DAMMING...A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST. A SECONDARY HIGH WILL
TRY TO FORM ALONG THE DELMARVA LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS COULD
PRESENT MORE OF AN IN SITU DAMMING SCENARIO ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 290K SURFACE. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY ZONAL. THEREFORE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL VARY ACROSS THE CWA WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
OVER THE TRIAD AND A MORE NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE NORTHEAST.
THUS PARTIALLY EXPLAINING THE DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST HIGHS AT AROUND
5 KTS. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HAVE INCREASED LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

GRADUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BY 06Z THURSDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS
WEDNESDAY SUGGEST A SHARP INVERSION THROUGH THE MORNING WEDNESDAY
WITH MAINLY DRY AIR ABOVE...SUGGESTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY A PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST JUST A
LITTLE DEEPER COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SUGGEST SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EROSION...SLOWEST IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND WHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME
CAPPING TO MODESTLY DEEP CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE CAP
DOES ERODE ENOUGH TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER THAT POSSIBLY A SHOWER
COULD OCCUR THERE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE
TRENDED WARMER BUT STILL EXPECT THE SAME PATTERN OF HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 TOWARD THE TRIAD AND NOTICEABLY WARMER TOWARD KFAY
AND KCTZ...AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS GOOD VORTICITY ADVECTION AT 700MB ALONG
WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE TIMING OF
DEEPENING MOISTURE DIFFERS ON THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...BUT
THEY ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH TO SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WEST-TO-EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THESE CHANCES COULD
END UP BEING LIKELY OR EVEN CATEGORICAL AT SOME POINT PRIOR TO THEN.
CAPE IS VERY SKINNY ON BUFR SOUNDINGS BUT NON-ZERO...AND IF THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE AND DIFFLUENCE REMAIN AS FORECAST A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL LITTLE IN THE TRIAD...OVERALL THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LOWS 55 TO 60.

THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY EARLY AND THERE IS
FORECAST BY THE GFS A PERIOD OF CONVERGENCE ALOFT BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT GETS CLOSER LATER IN THE DAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS A LITTLE SLOWER...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN GOOD WARMING
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...IN FACT...SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
GOOD BIT OF SUN ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 FOR A TIME WHICH COULD HELP
TO ELEVATE TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR 80 TO 85 THERE. FOR THIS FORECAST
WILL HAVE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NEAR 80 IN THE
TRIANGLE...WITH SOLID LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES IN A MODESTLY
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND. IF THE FRONTAL TIMING SLOWS EVEN A LITTLE MORE
MUCH OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE DRY...BUT FOR THIS FORECAST WILL
RETAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM THEN...LOW CHANCES
TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 AND HIGHER CHANCES TOWARD THE TRIAD. THURSDAY
COULD BE A DAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS MOVING EAST FOLLOWED BY A DECENT
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH RENEWED CHANCES LATER IN THE
DAY COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL ON THE GFS
INTO THURSDAY EVENING...MLCAPE THROUGH THE LOWEST 2KM LESS THAN
500J/KG...BUT THE 0-3KM SHEAR IS GOOD APPROACHING 60KT WITH THE
FRONT. THE NAM IS MORE UNSTABLE...BUT JET SUPPORT SEEMS TO BE
LAGGING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING PAST CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
EVENING AS COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE
EVENING. THE CAPE IS SKINNY...AND THOSE COARSE SOUNDINGS BECOME
STABLE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR LINGERING SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND THE CANADIAN AND DGEX ARE VERY SLOW...WHICH WOULD CARRY CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. UNLESS THE FRONTAL TIMING
CONTINUES TO SLOW...THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION CURRENTLY IS LINGERING
MORNING SHOWERS MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1...BUT FOR THIS
FORECAST WILL NOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AND CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S.
1 DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES...
CONSIDERING THE SLOWEST SOLUTIONS THEN A LINGERING SHOWER COULD
CONTINUE IN THE EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...
BUT IF THE LATEST GFS VERIFIES WITH K INDICES FALLING GREATLY...
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

THE BIGGEST CHANGES FROM MODEL GUIDANCE OF SUNDAY IS OVERALL DRIER
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE DETAILS ON THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DRIER
WITH REGARD TO THE MEAN MOISTURE AND WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER OFFSHORE. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...QPF HAS
TRENDED TO VERY LIGHT OR NIL AND PLANNING NOW TO FEATURE A DRY
FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AFTER EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH BY SUNDAY...MAKING
FOR A RETURN TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. SURFACE
RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
RETURN IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS HAS A FLATTER
FLOW. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH ITS STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE...THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES PRECEDING THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL OPT TO SHOW JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AND LEAVE
OUT PRECIPITATION ON THE SEVENTH DAY. IF IT WOULD OCCUR...IT SHOULD
BE LIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIMINISH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT HEADS SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

THE TIGHTEST SURFACE GRADIENTS DURING THE PERIOD ARE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EARLY SATURDAY...AND THEN SUNDAY WHEN A
LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF GUSTS SHOULD BE OBSERVED. TEMPERATURES IN
THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL AVERAGE BELOW THE
NORMALS OF AROUND 65 TO 70 FOR LATE MARCH. COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE
SATURDAY WITH THE LOWEST 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUGGESTIVE OF ONLY
THE MID 40S IN THE TRIAD. WILL LEAN A CATEGORY ABOVE THAT AND CLOSER
TO THE MOS CONSENSUS...APPROACHING 50 IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD AND FAR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND 50 TO 55 ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY NIGHT COULD
FEATURE SOME UPPER 20S FOR LOWS IF CLOUDS DIMINISH AS EXPECTED.
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECTING HIGHS AROUND
NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 813 PM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONDITIONS AREA CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE FOOTHILLS AS
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THAT AREA... JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA... AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE CONSEQUENTLY INCREASES THERE
OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENT TO WHICH THESE CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP AND IF THEY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO AFFECT THE TRIAD.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.

LONG TERM: FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
MOIST CONVECTIVE RETURN FLOW REGIME MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...RAH/ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240016
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
815 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL CONTROL THE PATTERN FOR MIDWEEK
BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE IN LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...

MUCH DRIER AIRMASS TO THE NORTH HAS MOVED IN AND HELPED TO SCOUR OUT
CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND AS A RESULT
HAVE CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO RISE CONSIDERABLY ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW 60S ARE NOW IN PLAY. CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO
HANG ON IN THE EAST WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLEST...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE NORTHERN I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY AND WILL EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
NORTHEAST TO LOW 60S SOUTHWEST.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME
LOW CLOUDS IS DWINDLING ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS
AND RAP MODEL FORECASTS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE NW
PIEDMONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH COULD HELP TO FORM
SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS VERY
LOW AT THIS TIME. THUS WILL LOWER TEMPS A BIT INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL TRY TO WEDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS BUT THE HIGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OR IN AN IDEAL
POSITION FOR DAMMING...A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST. A SECONDARY HIGH WILL
TRY TO FORM ALONG THE DELMARVA LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS COULD
PRESENT MORE OF AN IN SITU DAMMING SCENARIO ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 290K SURFACE. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY ZONAL. THEREFORE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL VARY ACROSS THE CWA WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
OVER THE TRIAD AND A MORE NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE NORTHEAST.
THUS PARTIALLY EXPLAINING THE DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST HIGHS AT AROUND
5 KTS. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HAVE INCREASED LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

GRADUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BY 06Z THURSDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS
WEDNESDAY SUGGEST A SHARP INVERSION THROUGH THE MORNING WEDNESDAY
WITH MAINLY DRY AIR ABOVE...SUGGESTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY A PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST JUST A
LITTLE DEEPER COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SUGGEST SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EROSION...SLOWEST IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND WHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME
CAPPING TO MODESTLY DEEP CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE CAP
DOES ERODE ENOUGH TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER THAT POSSIBLY A SHOWER
COULD OCCUR THERE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE
TRENDED WARMER BUT STILL EXPECT THE SAME PATTERN OF HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 TOWARD THE TRIAD AND NOTICEABLY WARMER TOWARD KFAY
AND KCTZ...AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS GOOD VORTICITY ADVECTION AT 700MB ALONG
WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE TIMING OF
DEEPENING MOISTURE DIFFERS ON THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...BUT
THEY ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH TO SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WEST-TO-EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THESE CHANCES COULD
END UP BEING LIKELY OR EVEN CATEGORICAL AT SOME POINT PRIOR TO THEN.
CAPE IS VERY SKINNY ON BUFR SOUNDINGS BUT NON-ZERO...AND IF THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE AND DIFFLUENCE REMAIN AS FORECAST A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL LITTLE IN THE TRIAD...OVERALL THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LOWS 55 TO 60.

THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY EARLY AND THERE IS
FORECAST BY THE GFS A PERIOD OF CONVERGENCE ALOFT BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT GETS CLOSER LATER IN THE DAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS A LITTLE SLOWER...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN GOOD WARMING
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...IN FACT...SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
GOOD BIT OF SUN ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 FOR A TIME WHICH COULD HELP
TO ELEVATE TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR 80 TO 85 THERE. FOR THIS FORECAST
WILL HAVE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NEAR 80 IN THE
TRIANGLE...WITH SOLID LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES IN A MODESTLY
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND. IF THE FRONTAL TIMING SLOWS EVEN A LITTLE MORE
MUCH OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE DRY...BUT FOR THIS FORECAST WILL
RETAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM THEN...LOW CHANCES
TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 AND HIGHER CHANCES TOWARD THE TRIAD. THURSDAY
COULD BE A DAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS MOVING EAST FOLLOWED BY A DECENT
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH RENEWED CHANCES LATER IN THE
DAY COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL ON THE GFS
INTO THURSDAY EVENING...MLCAPE THROUGH THE LOWEST 2KM LESS THAN
500J/KG...BUT THE 0-3KM SHEAR IS GOOD APPROACHING 60KT WITH THE
FRONT. THE NAM IS MORE UNSTABLE...BUT JET SUPPORT SEEMS TO BE
LAGGING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING PAST CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
EVENING AS COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE
EVENING. THE CAPE IS SKINNY...AND THOSE COARSE SOUNDINGS BECOME
STABLE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR LINGERING SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND THE CANADIAN AND DGEX ARE VERY SLOW...WHICH WOULD CARRY CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. UNLESS THE FRONTAL TIMING
CONTINUES TO SLOW...THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION CURRENTLY IS LINGERING
MORNING SHOWERS MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1...BUT FOR THIS
FORECAST WILL NOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AND CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S.
1 DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES...
CONSIDERING THE SLOWEST SOLUTIONS THEN A LINGERING SHOWER COULD
CONTINUE IN THE EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...
BUT IF THE LATEST GFS VERIFIES WITH K INDICES FALLING GREATLY...
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

THE BIGGEST CHANGES FROM MODEL GUIDANCE OF SUNDAY IS OVERALL DRIER
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE DETAILS ON THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DRIER
WITH REGARD TO THE MEAN MOISTURE AND WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER OFFSHORE. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...QPF HAS
TRENDED TO VERY LIGHT OR NIL AND PLANNING NOW TO FEATURE A DRY
FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AFTER EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH BY SUNDAY...MAKING
FOR A RETURN TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. SURFACE
RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
RETURN IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS HAS A FLATTER
FLOW. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH ITS STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE...THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES PRECEDING THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL OPT TO SHOW JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AND LEAVE
OUT PRECIPITATION ON THE SEVENTH DAY. IF IT WOULD OCCUR...IT SHOULD
BE LIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIMINISH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT HEADS SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

THE TIGHTEST SURFACE GRADIENTS DURING THE PERIOD ARE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EARLY SATURDAY...AND THEN SUNDAY WHEN A
LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF GUSTS SHOULD BE OBSERVED. TEMPERATURES IN
THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL AVERAGE BELOW THE
NORMALS OF AROUND 65 TO 70 FOR LATE MARCH. COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE
SATURDAY WITH THE LOWEST 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUGGESTIVE OF ONLY
THE MID 40S IN THE TRIAD. WILL LEAN A CATEGORY ABOVE THAT AND CLOSER
TO THE MOS CONSENSUS...APPROACHING 50 IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD AND FAR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND 50 TO 55 ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY NIGHT COULD
FEATURE SOME UPPER 20S FOR LOWS IF CLOUDS DIMINISH AS EXPECTED.
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECTING HIGHS AROUND
NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 813 PM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONDITIONS AREA CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE FOOTHILLS AS
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THAT AREA... JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA... AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE CONSEQUENTLY INCREASES THERE
OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENT TO WHICH THESE CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP AND IF THEY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO AFFECT THE TRIAD.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.

LONG TERM: FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
MOIST CONVECTIVE RETURN FLOW REGIME MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...RAH/ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 240016
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
815 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL CONTROL THE PATTERN FOR MIDWEEK
BEFORE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE IN LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...

MUCH DRIER AIRMASS TO THE NORTH HAS MOVED IN AND HELPED TO SCOUR OUT
CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND AS A RESULT
HAVE CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO RISE CONSIDERABLY ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW 60S ARE NOW IN PLAY. CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO
HANG ON IN THE EAST WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLEST...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE NORTHERN I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY AND WILL EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
NORTHEAST TO LOW 60S SOUTHWEST.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WELL AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME
LOW CLOUDS IS DWINDLING ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY CROSS SECTIONS
AND RAP MODEL FORECASTS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE NW
PIEDMONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH COULD HELP TO FORM
SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS VERY
LOW AT THIS TIME. THUS WILL LOWER TEMPS A BIT INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S FOR LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL TRY TO WEDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS BUT THE HIGH IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OR IN AN IDEAL
POSITION FOR DAMMING...A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST. A SECONDARY HIGH WILL
TRY TO FORM ALONG THE DELMARVA LATER IN THE DAY AND THIS COULD
PRESENT MORE OF AN IN SITU DAMMING SCENARIO ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 290K SURFACE. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
FAIRLY ZONAL. THEREFORE LIGHT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL VARY ACROSS THE CWA WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
OVER THE TRIAD AND A MORE NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE NORTHEAST.
THUS PARTIALLY EXPLAINING THE DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST HIGHS AT AROUND
5 KTS. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...HAVE INCREASED LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

GRADUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
BY 06Z THURSDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS
WEDNESDAY SUGGEST A SHARP INVERSION THROUGH THE MORNING WEDNESDAY
WITH MAINLY DRY AIR ABOVE...SUGGESTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY A PATCH OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST JUST A
LITTLE DEEPER COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SUGGEST SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EROSION...SLOWEST IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AND WHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME
CAPPING TO MODESTLY DEEP CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE CAP
DOES ERODE ENOUGH TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER THAT POSSIBLY A SHOWER
COULD OCCUR THERE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE
TRENDED WARMER BUT STILL EXPECT THE SAME PATTERN OF HIGHS
APPROACHING 60 TOWARD THE TRIAD AND NOTICEABLY WARMER TOWARD KFAY
AND KCTZ...AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE IS GOOD VORTICITY ADVECTION AT 700MB ALONG
WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE TIMING OF
DEEPENING MOISTURE DIFFERS ON THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...BUT
THEY ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH TO SUGGEST A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WEST-TO-EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THESE CHANCES COULD
END UP BEING LIKELY OR EVEN CATEGORICAL AT SOME POINT PRIOR TO THEN.
CAPE IS VERY SKINNY ON BUFR SOUNDINGS BUT NON-ZERO...AND IF THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE AND DIFFLUENCE REMAIN AS FORECAST A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL LITTLE IN THE TRIAD...OVERALL THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LOWS 55 TO 60.

THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY EARLY AND THERE IS
FORECAST BY THE GFS A PERIOD OF CONVERGENCE ALOFT BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT GETS CLOSER LATER IN THE DAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS A LITTLE SLOWER...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN GOOD WARMING
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...IN FACT...SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
GOOD BIT OF SUN ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 FOR A TIME WHICH COULD HELP
TO ELEVATE TEMPERATURES FROM NEAR 80 TO 85 THERE. FOR THIS FORECAST
WILL HAVE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NEAR 80 IN THE
TRIANGLE...WITH SOLID LOWER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES IN A MODESTLY
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND. IF THE FRONTAL TIMING SLOWS EVEN A LITTLE MORE
MUCH OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE DRY...BUT FOR THIS FORECAST WILL
RETAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM THEN...LOW CHANCES
TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 AND HIGHER CHANCES TOWARD THE TRIAD. THURSDAY
COULD BE A DAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS MOVING EAST FOLLOWED BY A DECENT
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH RENEWED CHANCES LATER IN THE
DAY COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL ON THE GFS
INTO THURSDAY EVENING...MLCAPE THROUGH THE LOWEST 2KM LESS THAN
500J/KG...BUT THE 0-3KM SHEAR IS GOOD APPROACHING 60KT WITH THE
FRONT. THE NAM IS MORE UNSTABLE...BUT JET SUPPORT SEEMS TO BE
LAGGING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING PAST CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
EVENING AS COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST
STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE
EVENING. THE CAPE IS SKINNY...AND THOSE COARSE SOUNDINGS BECOME
STABLE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR LINGERING SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND THE CANADIAN AND DGEX ARE VERY SLOW...WHICH WOULD CARRY CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. UNLESS THE FRONTAL TIMING
CONTINUES TO SLOW...THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION CURRENTLY IS LINGERING
MORNING SHOWERS MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1...BUT FOR THIS
FORECAST WILL NOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AND CHANCES MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S.
1 DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES...
CONSIDERING THE SLOWEST SOLUTIONS THEN A LINGERING SHOWER COULD
CONTINUE IN THE EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...
BUT IF THE LATEST GFS VERIFIES WITH K INDICES FALLING GREATLY...
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

THE BIGGEST CHANGES FROM MODEL GUIDANCE OF SUNDAY IS OVERALL DRIER
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DEEP TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE DETAILS ON THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DRIER
WITH REGARD TO THE MEAN MOISTURE AND WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
FARTHER OFFSHORE. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...QPF HAS
TRENDED TO VERY LIGHT OR NIL AND PLANNING NOW TO FEATURE A DRY
FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AFTER EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH BY SUNDAY...MAKING
FOR A RETURN TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. SURFACE
RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MOISTURE
RETURN IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT...FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE MID-
LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS HAS A FLATTER
FLOW. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH ITS STRONGER MID-LEVEL WAVE...THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES PRECEDING THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...WILL OPT TO SHOW JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AND LEAVE
OUT PRECIPITATION ON THE SEVENTH DAY. IF IT WOULD OCCUR...IT SHOULD
BE LIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIMINISH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT HEADS SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

THE TIGHTEST SURFACE GRADIENTS DURING THE PERIOD ARE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EARLY SATURDAY...AND THEN SUNDAY WHEN A
LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF GUSTS SHOULD BE OBSERVED. TEMPERATURES IN
THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL AVERAGE BELOW THE
NORMALS OF AROUND 65 TO 70 FOR LATE MARCH. COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE
SATURDAY WITH THE LOWEST 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUGGESTIVE OF ONLY
THE MID 40S IN THE TRIAD. WILL LEAN A CATEGORY ABOVE THAT AND CLOSER
TO THE MOS CONSENSUS...APPROACHING 50 IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD AND FAR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND 50 TO 55 ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY NIGHT COULD
FEATURE SOME UPPER 20S FOR LOWS IF CLOUDS DIMINISH AS EXPECTED.
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECTING HIGHS AROUND
NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 813 PM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONDITIONS AREA CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE FOOTHILLS AS
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THAT AREA... JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA... AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE CONSEQUENTLY INCREASES THERE
OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENT TO WHICH THESE CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP AND IF THEY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO AFFECT THE TRIAD.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.

LONG TERM: FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
MOIST CONVECTIVE RETURN FLOW REGIME MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
COULD KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...RAH/ELLIS




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