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000
FXUS62 KRAH 020135
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
935 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY...THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 935 PM WEDNESDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SECTIONS OF
THE SANDHILLS WERE LIKELY INITIATED BY HEATING BUT ALSO BY THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK S/W ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN GA-UPSTATE
SC. THIS SYSTEM...PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHEARING APART AS
IT PROGRESSES EAST ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. ANOTHER NOTABLE SHEAR
AXIS STRETCHED ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA-CENTRAL SECTION OF VIRGINIA
EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE AIDED BY WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
A MARGINALLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN THE LOWEST 10K FT MAY SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AS SUGGESTED BY A COUPLE OF THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS AS AS WELL AS THE HRRR. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH...CLOSE TO THE
VIRGINIA BORDER.

FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL DEPEND UPON HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE OVERNIGHT. MODEL RH CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE AT LEAST
SOME PATCHY CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64.
THUS...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE SOUTH WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG. SINCE SKIES ARE FAIR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING...COULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL THICKER/MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
OVERNIGHT. THUS WILL MENTION WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE NORTH BUT
NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT DENSE WILL OCCUR HERE.

HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP TREND TO REFLECT EARLY EVENING
OBSERVATIONS BUT OVERALL MIN TEMP FORECAST ON TARGET AROUND 60 TO
THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ON THU...
OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN AL/GA AT 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH UPSTATE SC AND FAR S/SE PORTIONS
OF NC TONIGHT.

TEMPS: THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST AIRMASS SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM VA INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT ACTED TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF
INSOLATION (AND RESULTANT BUOYANT MIXING) THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
LOW CEILINGS TO PERSIST LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
`ADVECTIVE OFFSET` WILL DECREASE IN EFFICIENCY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO THE EAST/SOUTH DURING PEAK HEATING...AND A CLEARING TREND
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLE SHORTLY (IF NOT ALREADY) IN THE N/W PIEDMONT
WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 70S...WITH HIGHS ELSEWHERE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS
GIVEN LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PRECIP: THE 12Z NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP OVER
CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...BETWEEN 00-06Z OR 03-09Z. IN COMPARISON TO THE
LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM IS TOO GENEROUS
W/REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...MARGINAL NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION DEPICTED BY THE NAM IN THE SFC-H8 OR SFC-H7 LAYER
TONIGHT IS LIKELY OVERDONE. EVEN IF SHALLOW INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
AS THE NAM SUGGESTS...DIURNAL TIMING WOULD BE POOR...VIRTUALLY NO
LOW-LEVEL FOCUS OR FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE PRESENT...AND THE
INCREASINGLY DRY/SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WOULD RESULT IN AN EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10
KFT...FURTHER DECREASING (THOUGH NOT NEGATING) THE POTENTIAL THAT
RELATIVELY DIFFUSE DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE...SUSTAIN...OR MAINTAIN
SUCH SHALLOW CONVECTION. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. -VINCENT

BECOMING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VA THU AFTERNOON
INTO THU NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. GIVEN A THOROUGHLY DRY/STABLE H7-H3
LAYER ATOP SHALLOW/MARGINAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY (AT BEST) IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLEST WHERE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS PERSIST THE LONGEST PRIOR TO MIXING OUT. LOWS THU NIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE ONSET OF
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE...IN THE LOWER
60S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...

THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE THE DRIVING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS IT CURRENTLY APPEARS... THE MAIN THREAT
OF CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST... AND UNTIL THE EVENING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS
OF TIMING AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT... EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTION. FOR NOW... FRIDAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S... EXCEPT 75-80 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. POP WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE TIME FRAME OF 400 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT HIGHEST POP
IN THE WEST... AND 800 PM THROUGH 400 AM HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. A LEAD CONVECTIVE LINE MAY RIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF. QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT... WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 IN THE SE (DUE
TO WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO OVERNIGHT TIMING IN THE
EASTERN ZONES).

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED. ALSO... TIMING OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE EAST WILL BE LATER INTO THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE... THUS THE
WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED.

BY 12Z/SAT...

THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST... BUT
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM THE NW. THIS CLEARING TREND ALONG WITH
INCREASING CAA THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE NW BREEZE AT
10-20 MPH. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S NW TO SE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING OUR FIRST REAL REFRESHING
AIR MASS OF THE 2014 FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES... LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN-MON.

A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TUE-WED ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO OUR SE THEN.
LOWS WILL RETURN TO THE 50S WITH HIGHS 73-78 (NEAR NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY...

ONCE AGAIN...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT THE AIR MASS HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH IN PAST DAY OR SO...WILL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
AND SHOW VSBYS DECREASING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LESS THAN 1/2 OR
1/4SM EXPECTED BY 08-09Z. THE FOG SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...
LIKELY LIFTING INTO A LOW (MVFR) STRATUS DECK...BEFORE FINALLY
BECOMING VFR BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ALTHOUGH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/STRATUS
ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL. WIDESPREAD
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM
THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND THEN PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 020135
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
935 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY...THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 935 PM WEDNESDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SECTIONS OF
THE SANDHILLS WERE LIKELY INITIATED BY HEATING BUT ALSO BY THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK S/W ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN GA-UPSTATE
SC. THIS SYSTEM...PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHEARING APART AS
IT PROGRESSES EAST ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. ANOTHER NOTABLE SHEAR
AXIS STRETCHED ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA-CENTRAL SECTION OF VIRGINIA
EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE AIDED BY WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
A MARGINALLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN THE LOWEST 10K FT MAY SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AS SUGGESTED BY A COUPLE OF THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS AS AS WELL AS THE HRRR. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A
SHOWER WILL BE MAINLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH...CLOSE TO THE
VIRGINIA BORDER.

FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL DEPEND UPON HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE OVERNIGHT. MODEL RH CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE AT LEAST
SOME PATCHY CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64.
THUS...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE SOUTH WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG. SINCE SKIES ARE FAIR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING...COULD SEE FOG
DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL THICKER/MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
OVERNIGHT. THUS WILL MENTION WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE NORTH BUT
NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT DENSE WILL OCCUR HERE.

HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP TREND TO REFLECT EARLY EVENING
OBSERVATIONS BUT OVERALL MIN TEMP FORECAST ON TARGET AROUND 60 TO
THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ON THU...
OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN AL/GA AT 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH UPSTATE SC AND FAR S/SE PORTIONS
OF NC TONIGHT.

TEMPS: THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST AIRMASS SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM VA INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT ACTED TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF
INSOLATION (AND RESULTANT BUOYANT MIXING) THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
LOW CEILINGS TO PERSIST LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
`ADVECTIVE OFFSET` WILL DECREASE IN EFFICIENCY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO THE EAST/SOUTH DURING PEAK HEATING...AND A CLEARING TREND
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLE SHORTLY (IF NOT ALREADY) IN THE N/W PIEDMONT
WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 70S...WITH HIGHS ELSEWHERE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS
GIVEN LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PRECIP: THE 12Z NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP OVER
CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...BETWEEN 00-06Z OR 03-09Z. IN COMPARISON TO THE
LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM IS TOO GENEROUS
W/REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...MARGINAL NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION DEPICTED BY THE NAM IN THE SFC-H8 OR SFC-H7 LAYER
TONIGHT IS LIKELY OVERDONE. EVEN IF SHALLOW INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
AS THE NAM SUGGESTS...DIURNAL TIMING WOULD BE POOR...VIRTUALLY NO
LOW-LEVEL FOCUS OR FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE PRESENT...AND THE
INCREASINGLY DRY/SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WOULD RESULT IN AN EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10
KFT...FURTHER DECREASING (THOUGH NOT NEGATING) THE POTENTIAL THAT
RELATIVELY DIFFUSE DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE...SUSTAIN...OR MAINTAIN
SUCH SHALLOW CONVECTION. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. -VINCENT

BECOMING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VA THU AFTERNOON
INTO THU NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. GIVEN A THOROUGHLY DRY/STABLE H7-H3
LAYER ATOP SHALLOW/MARGINAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY (AT BEST) IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLEST WHERE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS PERSIST THE LONGEST PRIOR TO MIXING OUT. LOWS THU NIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE ONSET OF
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE...IN THE LOWER
60S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...

THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE THE DRIVING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS IT CURRENTLY APPEARS... THE MAIN THREAT
OF CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST... AND UNTIL THE EVENING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS
OF TIMING AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT... EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTION. FOR NOW... FRIDAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S... EXCEPT 75-80 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. POP WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE TIME FRAME OF 400 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT HIGHEST POP
IN THE WEST... AND 800 PM THROUGH 400 AM HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. A LEAD CONVECTIVE LINE MAY RIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF. QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT... WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 IN THE SE (DUE
TO WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO OVERNIGHT TIMING IN THE
EASTERN ZONES).

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED. ALSO... TIMING OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE EAST WILL BE LATER INTO THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE... THUS THE
WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED.

BY 12Z/SAT...

THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST... BUT
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM THE NW. THIS CLEARING TREND ALONG WITH
INCREASING CAA THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE NW BREEZE AT
10-20 MPH. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S NW TO SE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING OUR FIRST REAL REFRESHING
AIR MASS OF THE 2014 FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES... LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN-MON.

A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TUE-WED ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO OUR SE THEN.
LOWS WILL RETURN TO THE 50S WITH HIGHS 73-78 (NEAR NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY...

ONCE AGAIN...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT THE AIR MASS HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH IN PAST DAY OR SO...WILL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
AND SHOW VSBYS DECREASING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LESS THAN 1/2 OR
1/4SM EXPECTED BY 08-09Z. THE FOG SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...
LIKELY LIFTING INTO A LOW (MVFR) STRATUS DECK...BEFORE FINALLY
BECOMING VFR BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ALTHOUGH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/STRATUS
ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL. WIDESPREAD
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM
THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND THEN PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020000
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY...THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN AL/GA AT 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH UPSTATE SC AND FAR S/SE PORTIONS
OF NC TONIGHT.

TEMPS: THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST AIRMASS SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM VA INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT ACTED TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF
INSOLATION (AND RESULTANT BUOYANT MIXING) THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
LOW CEILINGS TO PERSIST LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
`ADVECTIVE OFFSET` WILL DECREASE IN EFFICIENCY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO THE EAST/SOUTH DURING PEAK HEATING...AND A CLEARING TREND
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLE SHORTLY (IF NOT ALREADY) IN THE N/W PIEDMONT
WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 70S...WITH HIGHS ELSEWHERE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS
GIVEN LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PRECIP: THE 12Z NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP OVER
CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...BETWEEN 00-06Z OR 03-09Z. IN COMPARISON TO THE
LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM IS TOO GENEROUS
W/REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...MARGINAL NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION DEPICTED BY THE NAM IN THE SFC-H8 OR SFC-H7 LAYER
TONIGHT IS LIKELY OVERDONE. EVEN IF SHALLOW INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
AS THE NAM SUGGESTS...DIURNAL TIMING WOULD BE POOR...VIRTUALLY NO
LOW-LEVEL FOCUS OR FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE PRESENT...AND THE
INCREASINGLY DRY/SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WOULD RESULT IN AN EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10
KFT...FURTHER DECREASING (THOUGH NOT NEGATING) THE POTENTIAL THAT
RELATIVELY DIFFUSE DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE...SUSTAIN...OR MAINTAIN
SUCH SHALLOW CONVECTION. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ON THU...
BECOMING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VA THU AFTERNOON
INTO THU NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. GIVEN A THOROUGHLY DRY/STABLE H7-H3
LAYER ATOP SHALLOW/MARGINAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY (AT BEST) IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLEST WHERE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS PERSIST THE LONGEST PRIOR TO MIXING OUT. LOWS THU NIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE ONSET OF
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE...IN THE LOWER
60S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...

THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE THE DRIVING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS IT CURRENTLY APPEARS... THE MAIN THREAT
OF CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST... AND UNTIL THE EVENING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS
OF TIMING AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT... EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTION. FOR NOW... FRIDAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S... EXCEPT 75-80 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. POP WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE TIME FRAME OF 400 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT HIGHEST POP
IN THE WEST... AND 800 PM THROUGH 400 AM HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. A LEAD CONVECTIVE LINE MAY RIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF. QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT... WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 IN THE SE (DUE
TO WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO OVERNIGHT TIMING IN THE
EASTERN ZONES).

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED. ALSO... TIMING OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE EAST WILL BE LATER INTO THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE... THUS THE
WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED.

BY 12Z/SAT...

THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST... BUT
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM THE NW. THIS CLEARING TREND ALONG WITH
INCREASING CAA THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE NW BREEZE AT
10-20 MPH. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S NW TO SE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING OUR FIRST REAL REFRESHING
AIR MASS OF THE 2014 FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES... LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN-MON.

A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TUE-WED ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO OUR SE THEN.
LOWS WILL RETURN TO THE 50S WITH HIGHS 73-78 (NEAR NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY...

ONCE AGAIN...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT THE AIR MASS HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH IN PAST DAY OR SO...WILL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
AND SHOW VSBYS DECREASING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LESS THAN 1/2 OR
1/4SM EXPECTED BY 08-09Z. THE FOG SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...
LIKELY LIFTING INTO A LOW (MVFR) STRATUS DECK...BEFORE FINALLY
BECOMING VFR BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ALTHOUGH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/STRATUS
ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL. WIDESPREAD
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM
THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND THEN PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020000
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
800 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY...THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN AL/GA AT 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH UPSTATE SC AND FAR S/SE PORTIONS
OF NC TONIGHT.

TEMPS: THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST AIRMASS SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM VA INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT ACTED TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF
INSOLATION (AND RESULTANT BUOYANT MIXING) THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
LOW CEILINGS TO PERSIST LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
`ADVECTIVE OFFSET` WILL DECREASE IN EFFICIENCY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO THE EAST/SOUTH DURING PEAK HEATING...AND A CLEARING TREND
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLE SHORTLY (IF NOT ALREADY) IN THE N/W PIEDMONT
WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 70S...WITH HIGHS ELSEWHERE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS
GIVEN LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PRECIP: THE 12Z NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP OVER
CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...BETWEEN 00-06Z OR 03-09Z. IN COMPARISON TO THE
LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM IS TOO GENEROUS
W/REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...MARGINAL NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION DEPICTED BY THE NAM IN THE SFC-H8 OR SFC-H7 LAYER
TONIGHT IS LIKELY OVERDONE. EVEN IF SHALLOW INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
AS THE NAM SUGGESTS...DIURNAL TIMING WOULD BE POOR...VIRTUALLY NO
LOW-LEVEL FOCUS OR FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE PRESENT...AND THE
INCREASINGLY DRY/SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WOULD RESULT IN AN EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10
KFT...FURTHER DECREASING (THOUGH NOT NEGATING) THE POTENTIAL THAT
RELATIVELY DIFFUSE DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE...SUSTAIN...OR MAINTAIN
SUCH SHALLOW CONVECTION. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ON THU...
BECOMING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VA THU AFTERNOON
INTO THU NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. GIVEN A THOROUGHLY DRY/STABLE H7-H3
LAYER ATOP SHALLOW/MARGINAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY (AT BEST) IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLEST WHERE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS PERSIST THE LONGEST PRIOR TO MIXING OUT. LOWS THU NIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE ONSET OF
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE...IN THE LOWER
60S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...

THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE THE DRIVING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS IT CURRENTLY APPEARS... THE MAIN THREAT
OF CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST... AND UNTIL THE EVENING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS
OF TIMING AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT... EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTION. FOR NOW... FRIDAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S... EXCEPT 75-80 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. POP WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE TIME FRAME OF 400 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT HIGHEST POP
IN THE WEST... AND 800 PM THROUGH 400 AM HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. A LEAD CONVECTIVE LINE MAY RIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF. QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT... WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 IN THE SE (DUE
TO WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO OVERNIGHT TIMING IN THE
EASTERN ZONES).

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED. ALSO... TIMING OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE EAST WILL BE LATER INTO THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE... THUS THE
WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED.

BY 12Z/SAT...

THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST... BUT
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM THE NW. THIS CLEARING TREND ALONG WITH
INCREASING CAA THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE NW BREEZE AT
10-20 MPH. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S NW TO SE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING OUR FIRST REAL REFRESHING
AIR MASS OF THE 2014 FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES... LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN-MON.

A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TUE-WED ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO OUR SE THEN.
LOWS WILL RETURN TO THE 50S WITH HIGHS 73-78 (NEAR NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY...

ONCE AGAIN...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT THE AIR MASS HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH IN PAST DAY OR SO...WILL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
AND SHOW VSBYS DECREASING THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LESS THAN 1/2 OR
1/4SM EXPECTED BY 08-09Z. THE FOG SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...
LIKELY LIFTING INTO A LOW (MVFR) STRATUS DECK...BEFORE FINALLY
BECOMING VFR BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ALTHOUGH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/STRATUS
ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL. WIDESPREAD
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM
THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND THEN PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 011850
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY...THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN AL/GA AT 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH UPSTATE SC AND FAR S/SE PORTIONS
OF NC TONIGHT.

TEMPS: THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST AIRMASS SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM VA INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT ACTED TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF
INSOLATION (AND RESULTANT BUOYANT MIXING) THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
LOW CEILINGS TO PERSIST LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
`ADVECTIVE OFFSET` WILL DECREASE IN EFFICIENCY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO THE EAST/SOUTH DURING PEAK HEATING...AND A CLEARING TREND
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLE SHORTLY (IF NOT ALREADY) IN THE N/W PIEDMONT
WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 70S...WITH HIGHS ELSEWHERE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS
GIVEN LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PRECIP: THE 12Z NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP OVER
CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...BETWEEN 00-06Z OR 03-09Z. IN COMPARISON TO THE
LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM IS TOO GENEROUS
W/REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...MARGINAL NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION DEPICTED BY THE NAM IN THE SFC-H8 OR SFC-H7 LAYER
TONIGHT IS LIKELY OVERDONE. EVEN IF SHALLOW INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
AS THE NAM SUGGESTS...DIURNAL TIMING WOULD BE POOR...VIRTUALLY NO
LOW-LEVEL FOCUS OR FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE PRESENT...AND THE
INCREASINGLY DRY/SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WOULD RESULT IN AN EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10
KFT...FURTHER DECREASING (THOUGH NOT NEGATING) THE POTENTIAL THAT
RELATIVELY DIFFUSE DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE...SUSTAIN...OR MAINTAIN
SUCH SHALLOW CONVECTION. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ON THU...
BECOMING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VA THU AFTERNOON
INTO THU NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. GIVEN A THOROUGHLY DRY/STABLE H7-H3
LAYER ATOP SHALLOW/MARGINAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY (AT BEST) IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLEST WHERE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS PERSIST THE LONGEST PRIOR TO MIXING OUT. LOWS THU NIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE ONSET OF
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE...IN THE LOWER
60S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...

THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE THE DRIVING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS IT CURRENTLY APPEARS... THE MAIN THREAT
OF CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST... AND UNTIL THE EVENING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS
OF TIMING AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT... EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTION. FOR NOW... FRIDAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S... EXCEPT 75-80 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. POP WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE TIME FRAME OF 400 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT HIGHEST POP
IN THE WEST... AND 800 PM THROUGH 400 AM HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. A LEAD CONVECTIVE LINE MAY RIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF. QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT... WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 IN THE SE (DUE
TO WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO OVERNIGHT TIMING IN THE
EASTERN ZONES).

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED. ALSO... TIMING OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE EAST WILL BE LATER INTO THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE... THUS THE
WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED.

BY 12Z/SAT...

THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST... BUT
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM THE NW. THIS CLEARING TREND ALONG WITH
INCREASING CAA THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE NW BREEZE AT
10-20 MPH. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S NW TO SE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING OUR FIRST REAL REFRESHING
AIR MASS OF THE 2014 FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES... LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN-MON.

A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TUE-WED ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO OUR SE THEN.
LOWS WILL RETURN TO THE 50S WITH HIGHS 73-78 (NEAR NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: SUB-VFR CEILINGS HAVE LARGELY MIXED OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AS OF 15Z...EXCEPT AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS WHERE
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST UNTIL 18-19Z BEFORE MIXING OUT DUE TO
THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST UPSTREAM AIRMASS BY A LIGHT
NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. EVEN AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SUN ANGLE
INCREASES AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TOWARD THE SOUTH. BASED ON
PERSISTENCE...FOG/LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...08-12Z THURSDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY LATE THU
MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/
STRATUS ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL.
WIDESPREAD ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST...
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011850
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY...THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN AL/GA AT 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH UPSTATE SC AND FAR S/SE PORTIONS
OF NC TONIGHT.

TEMPS: THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST AIRMASS SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM VA INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT ACTED TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF
INSOLATION (AND RESULTANT BUOYANT MIXING) THIS MORNING...ALLOWING
LOW CEILINGS TO PERSIST LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
`ADVECTIVE OFFSET` WILL DECREASE IN EFFICIENCY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO THE EAST/SOUTH DURING PEAK HEATING...AND A CLEARING TREND
SHOULD BE NOTICEABLE SHORTLY (IF NOT ALREADY) IN THE N/W PIEDMONT
WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 70S...WITH HIGHS ELSEWHERE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS
GIVEN LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PRECIP: THE 12Z NAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP OVER
CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...BETWEEN 00-06Z OR 03-09Z. IN COMPARISON TO THE
LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM IS TOO GENEROUS
W/REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS SUCH...MARGINAL NOCTURNAL
DESTABILIZATION DEPICTED BY THE NAM IN THE SFC-H8 OR SFC-H7 LAYER
TONIGHT IS LIKELY OVERDONE. EVEN IF SHALLOW INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
AS THE NAM SUGGESTS...DIURNAL TIMING WOULD BE POOR...VIRTUALLY NO
LOW-LEVEL FOCUS OR FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE PRESENT...AND THE
INCREASINGLY DRY/SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL AIRMASS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST WOULD RESULT IN AN EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10
KFT...FURTHER DECREASING (THOUGH NOT NEGATING) THE POTENTIAL THAT
RELATIVELY DIFFUSE DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE...SUSTAIN...OR MAINTAIN
SUCH SHALLOW CONVECTION. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ON THU...
BECOMING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VA THU AFTERNOON
INTO THU NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. GIVEN A THOROUGHLY DRY/STABLE H7-H3
LAYER ATOP SHALLOW/MARGINAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY (AT BEST) IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLEST WHERE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS PERSIST THE LONGEST PRIOR TO MIXING OUT. LOWS THU NIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE ONSET OF
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE...IN THE LOWER
60S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...

THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE THE DRIVING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS IT CURRENTLY APPEARS... THE MAIN THREAT
OF CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST... AND UNTIL THE EVENING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS
OF TIMING AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT... EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTION. FOR NOW... FRIDAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S... EXCEPT 75-80 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. POP WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE TIME FRAME OF 400 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT HIGHEST POP
IN THE WEST... AND 800 PM THROUGH 400 AM HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. A LEAD CONVECTIVE LINE MAY RIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF. QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT... WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 IN THE SE (DUE
TO WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO OVERNIGHT TIMING IN THE
EASTERN ZONES).

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED. ALSO... TIMING OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE EAST WILL BE LATER INTO THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE... THUS THE
WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED.

BY 12Z/SAT...

THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST... BUT
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM THE NW. THIS CLEARING TREND ALONG WITH
INCREASING CAA THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE NW BREEZE AT
10-20 MPH. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S NW TO SE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING OUR FIRST REAL REFRESHING
AIR MASS OF THE 2014 FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES... LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN-MON.

A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TUE-WED ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO OUR SE THEN.
LOWS WILL RETURN TO THE 50S WITH HIGHS 73-78 (NEAR NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: SUB-VFR CEILINGS HAVE LARGELY MIXED OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AS OF 15Z...EXCEPT AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS WHERE
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST UNTIL 18-19Z BEFORE MIXING OUT DUE TO
THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST UPSTREAM AIRMASS BY A LIGHT
NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. EVEN AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SUN ANGLE
INCREASES AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TOWARD THE SOUTH. BASED ON
PERSISTENCE...FOG/LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...08-12Z THURSDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY LATE THU
MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/
STRATUS ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL.
WIDESPREAD ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST...
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 011754
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
155 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY... THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH VA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW COULD PROVIDE GLANCING BOUTS OF DPVA ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN NC TODAY...THOUGH SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WEAK
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC.

TEMPS: DENSE FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS LIFTED INTO LOW STRATUS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NW PIEDMONT...THOUGH CEILINGS HAVE YET TO SHOW
SIGNS OF MIXING OUT AND ACTUALLY APPEAR TO BE THICKENING ALONG THE I-
85 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST AIRMASS
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM VA INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT HAS APPARENTLY OFFSET
BUOYANT MIXING ASSOC/W INCREASING INSOLATION. ALTHOUGH LOW CEILINGS
MAY PERSIST LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED (PERHAPS UNTIL 18-19Z)...THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW CLEARING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT LATEST. WILL
INDICATE SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR N/NW
PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S (80-83F) ELSEWHERE.

PRECIP: THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT TONIGHT...THOUGH THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE IS DRY.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHY THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW (LITTLE OR NO
ADVECTION)...MARGINAL/SHALLOW MOISTURE...AND A THOROUGHLY DRY
AIRMASS ABOVE 700 MB AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE INCREASES FROM THE WEST.
AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FCST THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE MUST BE A PHYSICAL REASON THE NAM IS
GENERATING PRECIP...SUBTLE AS IT MAY BE...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED ACROSS THE N/NW PIEDMONT TONIGHT
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ON THU...
BECOMING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VA THU AFTERNOON
INTO THU NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. GIVEN A THOROUGHLY DRY/STABLE H7-H3
LAYER ATOP SHALLOW/MARGINAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY (AT BEST) IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLEST WHERE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS PERSIST THE LONGEST PRIOR TO MIXING OUT. LOWS THU NIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE ONSET OF
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE...IN THE LOWER
60S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...

THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE THE DRIVING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS IT CURRENTLY APPEARS... THE MAIN THREAT
OF CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST... AND UNTIL THE EVENING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS
OF TIMING AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT... EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTION. FOR NOW... FRIDAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S... EXCEPT 75-80 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. POP WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE TIME FRAME OF 400 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT HIGHEST POP
IN THE WEST... AND 800 PM THROUGH 400 AM HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. A LEAD CONVECTIVE LINE MAY RIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF. QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT... WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 IN THE SE (DUE
TO WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO OVERNIGHT TIMING IN THE
EASTERN ZONES).

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED. ALSO... TIMING OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE EAST WILL BE LATER INTO THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE... THUS THE
WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED.

BY 12Z/SAT...

THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST... BUT
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM THE NW. THIS CLEARING TREND ALONG WITH
INCREASING CAA THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE NW BREEZE AT
10-20 MPH. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S NW TO SE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING OUR FIRST REAL REFRESHING
AIR MASS OF THE 2014 FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES... LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN-MON.

A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TUE-WED ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO OUR SE THEN.
LOWS WILL RETURN TO THE 50S WITH HIGHS 73-78 (NEAR NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: SUB-VFR CEILINGS HAVE LARGELY MIXED OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AS OF 15Z...EXCEPT AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS WHERE
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST UNTIL 18-19Z BEFORE MIXING OUT DUE TO
THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST UPSTREAM AIRMASS BY A LIGHT
NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. EVEN AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SUN ANGLE
INCREASES AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TOWARD THE SOUTH. BASED ON
PERSISTENCE...FOG/LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...08-12Z THURSDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY LATE THU
MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/
STRATUS ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL.
WIDESPREAD ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST...
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...V/PWB
NEAR TERM...V
SHORT TERM...V
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...V





000
FXUS62 KRAH 011754
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
155 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY... THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH VA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW COULD PROVIDE GLANCING BOUTS OF DPVA ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN NC TODAY...THOUGH SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WEAK
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC.

TEMPS: DENSE FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS LIFTED INTO LOW STRATUS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NW PIEDMONT...THOUGH CEILINGS HAVE YET TO SHOW
SIGNS OF MIXING OUT AND ACTUALLY APPEAR TO BE THICKENING ALONG THE I-
85 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST AIRMASS
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM VA INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT HAS APPARENTLY OFFSET
BUOYANT MIXING ASSOC/W INCREASING INSOLATION. ALTHOUGH LOW CEILINGS
MAY PERSIST LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED (PERHAPS UNTIL 18-19Z)...THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW CLEARING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT LATEST. WILL
INDICATE SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR N/NW
PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S (80-83F) ELSEWHERE.

PRECIP: THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT TONIGHT...THOUGH THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE IS DRY.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHY THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW (LITTLE OR NO
ADVECTION)...MARGINAL/SHALLOW MOISTURE...AND A THOROUGHLY DRY
AIRMASS ABOVE 700 MB AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE INCREASES FROM THE WEST.
AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FCST THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE MUST BE A PHYSICAL REASON THE NAM IS
GENERATING PRECIP...SUBTLE AS IT MAY BE...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED ACROSS THE N/NW PIEDMONT TONIGHT
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ON THU...
BECOMING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VA THU AFTERNOON
INTO THU NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. GIVEN A THOROUGHLY DRY/STABLE H7-H3
LAYER ATOP SHALLOW/MARGINAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY (AT BEST) IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLEST WHERE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS PERSIST THE LONGEST PRIOR TO MIXING OUT. LOWS THU NIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE ONSET OF
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE...IN THE LOWER
60S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...

THE TIMING OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE THE DRIVING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS IT CURRENTLY APPEARS... THE MAIN THREAT
OF CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST... AND UNTIL THE EVENING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO AREAS MAY NOT SEE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER UNTIL LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE DETAILS
OF TIMING AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT... EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTION. FOR NOW... FRIDAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S... EXCEPT 75-80 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. POP WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE TIME FRAME OF 400 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT HIGHEST POP
IN THE WEST... AND 800 PM THROUGH 400 AM HIGHEST IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. A LEAD CONVECTIVE LINE MAY RIDE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES... FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT ITSELF. QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT... WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 IN THE SE (DUE
TO WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO OVERNIGHT TIMING IN THE
EASTERN ZONES).

THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND
WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED. ALSO... TIMING OF THE CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE EAST WILL BE LATER INTO THE NOCTURNAL CYCLE... THUS THE
WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED.

BY 12Z/SAT...

THERE MAY STILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST... BUT
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM THE NW. THIS CLEARING TREND ALONG WITH
INCREASING CAA THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A NOTICEABLE NW BREEZE AT
10-20 MPH. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S NW TO SE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING OUR FIRST REAL REFRESHING
AIR MASS OF THE 2014 FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES... LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SUN-MON.

A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TUE-WED ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS TO OUR SE THEN.
LOWS WILL RETURN TO THE 50S WITH HIGHS 73-78 (NEAR NORMAL).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: SUB-VFR CEILINGS HAVE LARGELY MIXED OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AS OF 15Z...EXCEPT AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS WHERE
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST UNTIL 18-19Z BEFORE MIXING OUT DUE TO
THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST UPSTREAM AIRMASS BY A LIGHT
NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. EVEN AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SUN ANGLE
INCREASES AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TOWARD THE SOUTH. BASED ON
PERSISTENCE...FOG/LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...08-12Z THURSDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY LATE THU
MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/
STRATUS ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL.
WIDESPREAD ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST...
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...V/PWB
NEAR TERM...V
SHORT TERM...V
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...V




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011523
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1123 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY...THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH VA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW COULD PROVIDE GLANCING BOUTS OF DPVA ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN NC TODAY...THOUGH SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WEAK
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC.

TEMPS: DENSE FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS LIFTED INTO LOW STRATUS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NW PIEDMONT...THOUGH CEILINGS HAVE YET TO SHOW
SIGNS OF MIXING OUT AND ACTUALLY APPEAR TO BE THICKENING ALONG THE I-
85 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST AIRMASS
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM VA INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT HAS APPARENTLY OFFSET
BUOYANT MIXING ASSOC/W INCREASING INSOLATION. ALTHOUGH LOW CEILINGS
MAY PERSIST LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED (PERHAPS UNTIL 18-19Z)...THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW CLEARING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT LATEST. WILL
INDICATE SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR N/NW
PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S (80-83F) ELSEWHERE.

PRECIP: THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT TONIGHT...THOUGH THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE IS DRY.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHY THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW (LITTLE OR NO
ADVECTION)...MARGINAL/SHALLOW MOISTURE...AND A THOROUGHLY DRY
AIRMASS ABOVE 700 MB AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE INCREASES FROM THE WEST.
AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FCST THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE MUST BE A PHYSICAL REASON THE NAM IS
GENERATING PRECIP...SUBTLE AS IT MAY BE...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED ACROSS THE N/NW PIEDMONT TONIGHT
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ON THU...
BECOMING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VA THU AFTERNOON
INTO THU NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. GIVEN A THOROUGHLY DRY/STABLE H7-H3
LAYER ATOP SHALLOW/MARGINAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY (AT BEST) IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLEST WHERE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS PERSIST THE LONGEST PRIOR TO MIXING OUT. LOWS THU NIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE ONSET OF
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE...IN THE LOWER
60S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY. A POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TREK INTO CANADA.
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND THE PRECEDING CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE MODELS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE...THUS HAVE KEPT RAINFALL
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS NEARLY THE SAME. EXPECT CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM
NW TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...DECREASING
AGAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DESCENT SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED
WITH THE LATE DIURNAL TIMING...SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT.
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE...ALTHOUGH BOTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE CONVECTION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES YIELDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT MID 60S NW
TO MID 70S SE WHILE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE LOWEST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MEANWHILE...LOWS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: SUB-VFR CEILINGS HAVE LARGELY MIXED OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AS OF 15Z...EXCEPT AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS WHERE
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST UNTIL 18-19Z BEFORE MIXING OUT DUE TO
THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST UPSTREAM AIRMASS BY A LIGHT
NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. EVEN AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SUN ANGLE
INCREASES AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TOWARD THE SOUTH. BASED ON
PERSISTENCE...FOG/LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...08-12Z THURSDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY LATE THU
MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/
STRATUS ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL.
WIDESPREAD ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST...
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011523
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1123 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY...THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE TN/OH
VALLEY BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH VA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE EXITING UPPER LOW COULD PROVIDE GLANCING BOUTS OF DPVA ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN NC TODAY...THOUGH SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND WEAK
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC.

TEMPS: DENSE FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS LIFTED INTO LOW STRATUS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NW PIEDMONT...THOUGH CEILINGS HAVE YET TO SHOW
SIGNS OF MIXING OUT AND ACTUALLY APPEAR TO BE THICKENING ALONG THE I-
85 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST AIRMASS
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM VA INTO THE N/NW PIEDMONT HAS APPARENTLY OFFSET
BUOYANT MIXING ASSOC/W INCREASING INSOLATION. ALTHOUGH LOW CEILINGS
MAY PERSIST LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED (PERHAPS UNTIL 18-19Z)...THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW CLEARING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT LATEST. WILL
INDICATE SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR N/NW
PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S (80-83F) ELSEWHERE.

PRECIP: THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT TONIGHT...THOUGH THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE IS DRY.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHY THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT GIVEN VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW (LITTLE OR NO
ADVECTION)...MARGINAL/SHALLOW MOISTURE...AND A THOROUGHLY DRY
AIRMASS ABOVE 700 MB AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE INCREASES FROM THE WEST.
AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FCST THROUGH
TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE MUST BE A PHYSICAL REASON THE NAM IS
GENERATING PRECIP...SUBTLE AS IT MAY BE...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED ACROSS THE N/NW PIEDMONT TONIGHT
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ON THU...
BECOMING CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VA THU AFTERNOON
INTO THU NIGHT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF THE RIDGE ALOFT...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
FRI MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE MS
RIVER INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. GIVEN A THOROUGHLY DRY/STABLE H7-H3
LAYER ATOP SHALLOW/MARGINAL DIURNAL INSTABILITY (AT BEST) IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW OR UPPER LEVEL FORCING...WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FORECAST. EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...COOLEST WHERE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS PERSIST THE LONGEST PRIOR TO MIXING OUT. LOWS THU NIGHT
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THE ONSET OF
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST BY SUNRISE...IN THE LOWER
60S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY. A POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TREK INTO CANADA.
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND THE PRECEDING CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE MODELS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE...THUS HAVE KEPT RAINFALL
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS NEARLY THE SAME. EXPECT CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM
NW TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...DECREASING
AGAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DESCENT SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED
WITH THE LATE DIURNAL TIMING...SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT.
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE...ALTHOUGH BOTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE CONVECTION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES YIELDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT MID 60S NW
TO MID 70S SE WHILE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE LOWEST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MEANWHILE...LOWS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: SUB-VFR CEILINGS HAVE LARGELY MIXED OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL NC AS OF 15Z...EXCEPT AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS WHERE
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST UNTIL 18-19Z BEFORE MIXING OUT DUE TO
THE ADVECTION OF A SHALLOW COOL/MOIST UPSTREAM AIRMASS BY A LIGHT
NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. EVEN AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SUN ANGLE
INCREASES AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TOWARD THE SOUTH. BASED ON
PERSISTENCE...FOG/LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT...08-12Z THURSDAY...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY LATE THU
MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/
STRATUS ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL.
WIDESPREAD ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST...
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 011432
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1032 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY...THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES DIGGING SE THROUGH VA
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD
PROVIDE GLANCING BOUTS OF DPVA THROUGH THIS AFT/EVE...THOUGH ONE
WOULD EXPECT SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST TO THE SPINE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT TONIGHT...WHILE THE LATEST GFS
GUIDANCE IS DRY. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHY THE NAM CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...ESP WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW...
MARGINAL/SHALLOW INSTABILITY (EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10 KFT)...AND
INCREASING SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEST. A MORE RIGOROUS
ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z NAM IS ONGOING AND WILL BE COMPLETED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FCST
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
THU MORNING IN THE LOWER 60S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST THU/THU NIGHT... WHILE DEEP AND AMPLIFYING MID
LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST OVER THE PLAINS.... AND THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NC. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEAKLY TO THE SW/SOUTH
INTO NC... ALTHOUGH ITS SOUTHERN END WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
A BIT TO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO THE ENCROACHING WARM SECTOR AND
SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SW. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NC). THE MODELS DEVELOP PATCHES OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC EARLY THU THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...
WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE VA PIEDMONT THU NIGHT.
WITH THE MID LEVELS STILL DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
ALOFT... ANY MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WOULD BE ROOTED VERY
LOW. AND AT THIS TIME... WE DON`T QUITE SEE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE
NECESSARY FOR ANYTHING BETTER THAN SPRINKLES. THUS... WILL LEAVE
POPS UNDER 15% AND MENTION NOTHING GREATER THAN SPRINKLES.
THICKNESSES INCH UP FURTHER... SUGGESTING HIGHS NEAR 80 TO 84
(COOLER READINGS NORTHEAST). LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S... AND WE
SHOULD SEE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY. A POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TREK INTO CANADA.
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND THE PRECEDING CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE MODELS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE...THUS HAVE KEPT RAINFALL
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS NEARLY THE SAME. EXPECT CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM
NW TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...DECREASING
AGAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DESCENT SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED
WITH THE LATE DIURNAL TIMING...SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT.
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE...ALTHOUGH BOTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE CONVECTION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES YIELDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT MID 60S NW
TO MID 70S SE WHILE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE LOWEST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MEANWHILE...LOWS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING OF
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT TO MVFR CEILINGS BY ~16Z
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT ENTIRELY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BASED ON PERSISTENCE...FOG/LOW CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...08-12Z THURSDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY LATE THU MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/
STRATUS ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL.
WIDESPREAD ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST...
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011432
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1032 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY...THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS EAST TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES DIGGING SE THROUGH VA
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD
PROVIDE GLANCING BOUTS OF DPVA THROUGH THIS AFT/EVE...THOUGH ONE
WOULD EXPECT SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE
WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST TO THE SPINE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT TONIGHT...WHILE THE LATEST GFS
GUIDANCE IS DRY. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHY THE NAM CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...ESP WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW...
MARGINAL/SHALLOW INSTABILITY (EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10 KFT)...AND
INCREASING SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE FROM THE WEST. A MORE RIGOROUS
ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z NAM IS ONGOING AND WILL BE COMPLETED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DRY FCST
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
THU MORNING IN THE LOWER 60S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST THU/THU NIGHT... WHILE DEEP AND AMPLIFYING MID
LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST OVER THE PLAINS.... AND THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NC. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEAKLY TO THE SW/SOUTH
INTO NC... ALTHOUGH ITS SOUTHERN END WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
A BIT TO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO THE ENCROACHING WARM SECTOR AND
SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SW. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NC). THE MODELS DEVELOP PATCHES OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC EARLY THU THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...
WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE VA PIEDMONT THU NIGHT.
WITH THE MID LEVELS STILL DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
ALOFT... ANY MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WOULD BE ROOTED VERY
LOW. AND AT THIS TIME... WE DON`T QUITE SEE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE
NECESSARY FOR ANYTHING BETTER THAN SPRINKLES. THUS... WILL LEAVE
POPS UNDER 15% AND MENTION NOTHING GREATER THAN SPRINKLES.
THICKNESSES INCH UP FURTHER... SUGGESTING HIGHS NEAR 80 TO 84
(COOLER READINGS NORTHEAST). LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S... AND WE
SHOULD SEE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY. A POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TREK INTO CANADA.
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND THE PRECEDING CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE MODELS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE...THUS HAVE KEPT RAINFALL
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS NEARLY THE SAME. EXPECT CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM
NW TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...DECREASING
AGAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DESCENT SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED
WITH THE LATE DIURNAL TIMING...SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT.
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE...ALTHOUGH BOTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE CONVECTION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES YIELDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT MID 60S NW
TO MID 70S SE WHILE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE LOWEST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MEANWHILE...LOWS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING OF
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT TO MVFR CEILINGS BY ~16Z
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT ENTIRELY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BASED ON PERSISTENCE...FOG/LOW CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...08-12Z THURSDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY LATE THU MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MORNING FOG/
STRATUS ON FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL.
WIDESPREAD ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST...
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 011100
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
700 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY... AND SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR TODAY: AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT... THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... FOSTERED BY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THUS FAR THE LOWEST VSBYS HAVE BEEN OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW
THIS FOG/STRATUS SPREADING OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... AND NOT IMPROVING UNTIL THE 14Z-16Z TIME
FRAME... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE SLOW DISPERSION SEEN YESTERDAY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID MORNING. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE POCKETS OF VERY
LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE MORE DENSE FOG. THE DISSOLUTION OF THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL POST THE NEXT CHALLENGE... GIVEN YESTERDAY`S SLOW
IMPROVEMENT... AND WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AS WELL AS THE HRRR
TRENDS AND SHOW SLOWLY INCREASING SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH LAST OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER. EXPECT A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS... NOTED ON IR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... NOW EXTEND OVER TN INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE UNDERCUTTING THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL... THIS EQUATES TO A TREND FROM
DAYBREAK FOG/STRATUS TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THICKNESSES
ARE 5-10 M HIGHER THAN NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 OVER PIEDMONT (WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST) TO
THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

FOR TONIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS... LIKELY LESS WIDESPREAD AND
LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING OR YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD... NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SHOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE
NAM IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH SUCH CLOUDS THAN THE GFS... SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT AND COVERAGE REMAINS. BUT IF THESE
CLOUDS COME TO PASS... THEY WOULD MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW... AS IT
COULD SIMPLY BE LIGHT FOG. WILL SHOW A TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE. MILD LOWS OF 58-62. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST THU/THU NIGHT... WHILE DEEP AND AMPLIFYING MID
LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST OVER THE PLAINS.... AND THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NC. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEAKLY TO THE SW/SOUTH
INTO NC... ALTHOUGH ITS SOUTHERN END WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
A BIT TO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO THE ENCROACHING WARM SECTOR AND
SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SW. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NC). THE MODELS DEVELOP PATCHES OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC EARLY THU THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...
WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE VA PIEDMONT THU NIGHT.
WITH THE MID LEVELS STILL DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
ALOFT... ANY MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WOULD BE ROOTED VERY
LOW. AND AT THIS TIME... WE DON`T QUITE SEE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE
NECESSARY FOR ANYTHING BETTER THAN SPRINKLES. THUS... WILL LEAVE
POPS UNDER 15% AND MENTION NOTHING GREATER THAN SPRINKLES.
THICKNESSES INCH UP FURTHER... SUGGESTING HIGHS NEAR 80 TO 84
(COOLER READINGS NORTHEAST). LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S... AND WE
SHOULD SEE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY. A POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TREK INTO CANADA.
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND THE PRECEDING CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE MODELS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE...THUS HAVE KEPT RAINFALL
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS NEARLY THE SAME. EXPECT CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM
NW TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...DECREASING
AGAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DESCENT SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED
WITH THE LATE DIURNAL TIMING...SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT.
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE...ALTHOUGH BOTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE CONVECTION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES YIELDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT MID 60S NW
TO MID 70S SE WHILE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE LOWEST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MEANWHILE...LOWS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM WEDNESDAY...

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD AT ALL SITE UNTIL MID
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS
PROMPTED FORMATION OF WIDESPREAD FOG... DENSE IN SPOTS. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY DISPERSING. AFTER
THIS TIME... EXPECT A TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF
SITES THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
OVER THE REGION. RENEWED MVFR OR IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
STARTING SOON AFTER 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THAN TODAY... AS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER CLOUDS COULD CURB
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY
LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z THU MORNING... MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY LAST
UNTIL 13Z OR 14Z THU MORNING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THU. A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT RWI/FAY THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY
FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT
AFTERNOON... LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 011100
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
700 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY... AND SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR TODAY: AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT... THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... FOSTERED BY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THUS FAR THE LOWEST VSBYS HAVE BEEN OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW
THIS FOG/STRATUS SPREADING OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... AND NOT IMPROVING UNTIL THE 14Z-16Z TIME
FRAME... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE SLOW DISPERSION SEEN YESTERDAY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID MORNING. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE POCKETS OF VERY
LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE MORE DENSE FOG. THE DISSOLUTION OF THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL POST THE NEXT CHALLENGE... GIVEN YESTERDAY`S SLOW
IMPROVEMENT... AND WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AS WELL AS THE HRRR
TRENDS AND SHOW SLOWLY INCREASING SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH LAST OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER. EXPECT A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS... NOTED ON IR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... NOW EXTEND OVER TN INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE UNDERCUTTING THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL... THIS EQUATES TO A TREND FROM
DAYBREAK FOG/STRATUS TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THICKNESSES
ARE 5-10 M HIGHER THAN NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 OVER PIEDMONT (WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST) TO
THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

FOR TONIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS... LIKELY LESS WIDESPREAD AND
LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING OR YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD... NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SHOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE
NAM IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH SUCH CLOUDS THAN THE GFS... SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT AND COVERAGE REMAINS. BUT IF THESE
CLOUDS COME TO PASS... THEY WOULD MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW... AS IT
COULD SIMPLY BE LIGHT FOG. WILL SHOW A TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE. MILD LOWS OF 58-62. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST THU/THU NIGHT... WHILE DEEP AND AMPLIFYING MID
LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST OVER THE PLAINS.... AND THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NC. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEAKLY TO THE SW/SOUTH
INTO NC... ALTHOUGH ITS SOUTHERN END WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
A BIT TO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO THE ENCROACHING WARM SECTOR AND
SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SW. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NC). THE MODELS DEVELOP PATCHES OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC EARLY THU THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...
WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE VA PIEDMONT THU NIGHT.
WITH THE MID LEVELS STILL DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
ALOFT... ANY MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WOULD BE ROOTED VERY
LOW. AND AT THIS TIME... WE DON`T QUITE SEE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE
NECESSARY FOR ANYTHING BETTER THAN SPRINKLES. THUS... WILL LEAVE
POPS UNDER 15% AND MENTION NOTHING GREATER THAN SPRINKLES.
THICKNESSES INCH UP FURTHER... SUGGESTING HIGHS NEAR 80 TO 84
(COOLER READINGS NORTHEAST). LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S... AND WE
SHOULD SEE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY. A POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TREK INTO CANADA.
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND THE PRECEDING CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE MODELS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE...THUS HAVE KEPT RAINFALL
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS NEARLY THE SAME. EXPECT CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM
NW TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...DECREASING
AGAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DESCENT SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED
WITH THE LATE DIURNAL TIMING...SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT.
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE...ALTHOUGH BOTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE CONVECTION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES YIELDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT MID 60S NW
TO MID 70S SE WHILE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE LOWEST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MEANWHILE...LOWS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM WEDNESDAY...

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD AT ALL SITE UNTIL MID
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS
PROMPTED FORMATION OF WIDESPREAD FOG... DENSE IN SPOTS. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY DISPERSING. AFTER
THIS TIME... EXPECT A TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF
SITES THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
OVER THE REGION. RENEWED MVFR OR IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
STARTING SOON AFTER 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THAN TODAY... AS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER CLOUDS COULD CURB
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY
LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z THU MORNING... MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY LAST
UNTIL 13Z OR 14Z THU MORNING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THU. A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT RWI/FAY THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY
FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT
AFTERNOON... LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010655
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY... AND SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR TODAY: AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT... THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... FOSTERED BY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THUS FAR THE LOWEST VSBYS HAVE BEEN OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW
THIS FOG/STRATUS SPREADING OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... AND NOT IMPROVING UNTIL THE 14Z-16Z TIME
FRAME... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE SLOW DISPERSION SEEN YESTERDAY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID MORNING. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE POCKETS OF VERY
LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE MORE DENSE FOG. THE DISSOLUTION OF THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL POST THE NEXT CHALLENGE... GIVEN YESTERDAY`S SLOW
IMPROVEMENT... AND WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AS WELL AS THE HRRR
TRENDS AND SHOW SLOWLY INCREASING SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH LAST OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER. EXPECT A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS... NOTED ON IR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... NOW EXTEND OVER TN INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE UNDERCUTTING THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL... THIS EQUATES TO A TREND FROM
DAYBREAK FOG/STRATUS TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THICKNESSES
ARE 5-10 M HIGHER THAN NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 OVER PIEDMONT (WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST) TO
THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

FOR TONIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS... LIKELY LESS WIDESPREAD AND
LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING OR YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD... NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SHOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE
NAM IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH SUCH CLOUDS THAN THE GFS... SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT AND COVERAGE REMAINS. BUT IF THESE
CLOUDS COME TO PASS... THEY WOULD MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW... AS IT
COULD SIMPLY BE LIGHT FOG. WILL SHOW A TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE. MILD LOWS OF 58-62. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST THU/THU NIGHT... WHILE DEEP AND AMPLIFYING MID
LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST OVER THE PLAINS.... AND THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NC. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEAKLY TO THE SW/SOUTH
INTO NC... ALTHOUGH ITS SOUTHERN END WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
A BIT TO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO THE ENCROACHING WARM SECTOR AND
SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SW. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NC). THE MODELS DEVELOP PATCHES OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC EARLY THU THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...
WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE VA PIEDMONT THU NIGHT.
WITH THE MID LEVELS STILL DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
ALOFT... ANY MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WOULD BE ROOTED VERY
LOW. AND AT THIS TIME... WE DON`T QUITE SEE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE
NECESSARY FOR ANYTHING BETTER THAN SPRINKLES. THUS... WILL LEAVE
POPS UNDER 15% AND MENTION NOTHING GREATER THAN SPRINKLES.
THICKNESSES INCH UP FURTHER... SUGGESTING HIGHS NEAR 80 TO 84
(COOLER READINGS NORTHEAST). LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S... AND WE
SHOULD SEE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY. A POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TREK INTO CANADA.
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND THE PRECEDING CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE MODELS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE...THUS HAVE KEPT RAINFALL
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS NEARLY THE SAME. EXPECT CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM
NW TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...DECREASING
AGAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DESCENT SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED
WITH THE LATE DIURNAL TIMING...SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT.
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE...ALTHOUGH BOTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE CONVECTION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES YIELDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT MID 60S NW
TO MID 70S SE WHILE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE LOWEST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MEANWHILE...LOWS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM WEDNESDAY...

CHANCES ARE GOOD FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT RDU/RWI/FAY UNTIL MID
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS
PROMPTED FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG... DENSE IN SPOTS. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN NC OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS... HOLDING THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY DISPERSING.
THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AT INT/GSO... WHERE FOG IS CURRENTLY
LIGHT/PATCHY... AND HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT PLACES THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FOG/STRATUS JUST EAST OF THE TRIAD AREA. WILL HAVE SCTD LOW
STRATUS AND LIGHTER FOG AT INT/GSO... WHILE AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WILL
INDICATE LIFR CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 14Z/15Z. AFTER THIS TIME... EXPECT A
TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. RENEWED
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
(06Z THU). SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND AFFECT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FROM 08Z-13Z THU
MORNING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THU. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT RWI/FAY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP
EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010655
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY... AND SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR TODAY: AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT... THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... FOSTERED BY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THUS FAR THE LOWEST VSBYS HAVE BEEN OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW
THIS FOG/STRATUS SPREADING OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... AND NOT IMPROVING UNTIL THE 14Z-16Z TIME
FRAME... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE SLOW DISPERSION SEEN YESTERDAY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID MORNING. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE POCKETS OF VERY
LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE MORE DENSE FOG. THE DISSOLUTION OF THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL POST THE NEXT CHALLENGE... GIVEN YESTERDAY`S SLOW
IMPROVEMENT... AND WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AS WELL AS THE HRRR
TRENDS AND SHOW SLOWLY INCREASING SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH LAST OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER. EXPECT A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS... NOTED ON IR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... NOW EXTEND OVER TN INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE UNDERCUTTING THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL... THIS EQUATES TO A TREND FROM
DAYBREAK FOG/STRATUS TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THICKNESSES
ARE 5-10 M HIGHER THAN NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 OVER PIEDMONT (WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST) TO
THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

FOR TONIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS... LIKELY LESS WIDESPREAD AND
LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING OR YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD... NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SHOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE
NAM IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH SUCH CLOUDS THAN THE GFS... SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT AND COVERAGE REMAINS. BUT IF THESE
CLOUDS COME TO PASS... THEY WOULD MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW... AS IT
COULD SIMPLY BE LIGHT FOG. WILL SHOW A TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE. MILD LOWS OF 58-62. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST THU/THU NIGHT... WHILE DEEP AND AMPLIFYING MID
LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST OVER THE PLAINS.... AND THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NC. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEAKLY TO THE SW/SOUTH
INTO NC... ALTHOUGH ITS SOUTHERN END WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
A BIT TO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO THE ENCROACHING WARM SECTOR AND
SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SW. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NC). THE MODELS DEVELOP PATCHES OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC EARLY THU THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...
WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE VA PIEDMONT THU NIGHT.
WITH THE MID LEVELS STILL DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
ALOFT... ANY MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WOULD BE ROOTED VERY
LOW. AND AT THIS TIME... WE DON`T QUITE SEE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE
NECESSARY FOR ANYTHING BETTER THAN SPRINKLES. THUS... WILL LEAVE
POPS UNDER 15% AND MENTION NOTHING GREATER THAN SPRINKLES.
THICKNESSES INCH UP FURTHER... SUGGESTING HIGHS NEAR 80 TO 84
(COOLER READINGS NORTHEAST). LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S... AND WE
SHOULD SEE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER
MID-WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEY. A POTENT COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TREK INTO CANADA.
THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND THE PRECEDING CONVECTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE MODELS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE...THUS HAVE KEPT RAINFALL
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS NEARLY THE SAME. EXPECT CHANCES TO INCREASE FROM
NW TO EAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...DECREASING
AGAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS DESCENT SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED
WITH THE LATE DIURNAL TIMING...SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE THREAT.
EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE...ALTHOUGH BOTH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE CONVECTION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THE REST OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES YIELDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SHOULD ALSO BE MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL AGAIN BE DEPENDENT ON THE FRONT...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT MID 60S NW
TO MID 70S SE WHILE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MID 40S NW TO LOW 50S SE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE LOWEST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MEANWHILE...LOWS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM WEDNESDAY...

CHANCES ARE GOOD FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT RDU/RWI/FAY UNTIL MID
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS
PROMPTED FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG... DENSE IN SPOTS. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN NC OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS... HOLDING THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY DISPERSING.
THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AT INT/GSO... WHERE FOG IS CURRENTLY
LIGHT/PATCHY... AND HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT PLACES THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FOG/STRATUS JUST EAST OF THE TRIAD AREA. WILL HAVE SCTD LOW
STRATUS AND LIGHTER FOG AT INT/GSO... WHILE AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WILL
INDICATE LIFR CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 14Z/15Z. AFTER THIS TIME... EXPECT A
TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. RENEWED
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
(06Z THU). SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND AFFECT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FROM 08Z-13Z THU
MORNING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THU. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT RWI/FAY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP
EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010654
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY... AND SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR TODAY: AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT... THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... FOSTERED BY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THUS FAR THE LOWEST VSBYS HAVE BEEN OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW
THIS FOG/STRATUS SPREADING OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... AND NOT IMPROVING UNTIL THE 14Z-16Z TIME
FRAME... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE SLOW DISPERSION SEEN YESTERDAY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID MORNING. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE POCKETS OF VERY
LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE MORE DENSE FOG. THE DISSOLUTION OF THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL POST THE NEXT CHALLENGE... GIVEN YESTERDAY`S SLOW
IMPROVEMENT... AND WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AS WELL AS THE HRRR
TRENDS AND SHOW SLOWLY INCREASING SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH LAST OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER. EXPECT A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS... NOTED ON IR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... NOW EXTEND OVER TN INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE UNDERCUTTING THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL... THIS EQUATES TO A TREND FROM
DAYBREAK FOG/STRATUS TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THICKNESSES
ARE 5-10 M HIGHER THAN NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 OVER PIEDMONT (WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST) TO
THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

FOR TONIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS... LIKELY LESS WIDESPREAD AND
LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING OR YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD... NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SHOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE
NAM IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH SUCH CLOUDS THAN THE GFS... SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT AND COVERAGE REMAINS. BUT IF THESE
CLOUDS COME TO PASS... THEY WOULD MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW... AS IT
COULD SIMPLY BE LIGHT FOG. WILL SHOW A TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE. MILD LOWS OF 58-62. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR THU/THU NIGHT: THE MID LEVEL CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST THU/THU NIGHT... WHILE DEEP AND AMPLIFYING MID
LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS EAST OVER THE PLAINS.... AND THIS WILL BRING
A MODEST MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER NC. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEAKLY TO THE SW/SOUTH
INTO NC... ALTHOUGH ITS SOUTHERN END WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
A BIT TO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO THE ENCROACHING WARM SECTOR AND
SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SW. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS (ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NC). THE MODELS DEVELOP PATCHES OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC EARLY THU THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...
WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE VA PIEDMONT THU NIGHT.
WITH THE MID LEVELS STILL DRY WITH SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
ALOFT... ANY MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WOULD BE ROOTED VERY
LOW. AND AT THIS TIME... WE DON`T QUITE SEE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE
NECESSARY FOR ANYTHING BETTER THAN SPRINKLES. THUS... WILL LEAVE
POPS UNDER 15% AND MENTION NOTHING GREATER THAN SPRINKLES.
THICKNESSES INCH UP FURTHER... SUGGESTING HIGHS NEAR 80 TO 84
(COOLER READINGS NORTHEAST). LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S... AND WE
SHOULD SEE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. -GIH

FROM 235 PM TUESDAY... FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODELS INDICATE
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY/UPR MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT PASSAGE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING REALLY SHEARS OUT/DAMPENS
AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH EASTWARD
ADVANCING 30-35KT SWLY LLJ FOCUSING STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT.
LATE DIURNAL TIMING AND MODEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
LIMITED/WEAK INSTABILITY(200-400 MUCAPE)...THWARTING ANY SEVERE
THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING WEST TO EAST DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS
FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM
WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF A 0.25-
0.50".  MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON ARRIVAL/ONSET OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. UNDER THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY RANGING FROM MID 70S WEST TO
LOWER 80S EAST. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WEST-EAST TIMING OF FROPA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO LOWER/MID 60S SE. -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN WHICH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL HELP SUPPORT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION AS NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. UNTIL MODEL DISCREPANCIES CAN BE IRONED OUT WITH THIS CLIPPER-
LIKE TROUGH...WILL INDICATE CONSERVATIVE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM WEDNESDAY...

CHANCES ARE GOOD FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT RDU/RWI/FAY UNTIL MID
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS
PROMPTED FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG... DENSE IN SPOTS. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN NC OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS... HOLDING THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY DISPERSING.
THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AT INT/GSO... WHERE FOG IS CURRENTLY
LIGHT/PATCHY... AND HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT PLACES THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FOG/STRATUS JUST EAST OF THE TRIAD AREA. WILL HAVE SCTD LOW
STRATUS AND LIGHTER FOG AT INT/GSO... WHILE AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WILL
INDICATE LIFR CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 14Z/15Z. AFTER THIS TIME... EXPECT A
TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. RENEWED
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
(06Z THU). SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND AFFECT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FROM 08Z-13Z THU
MORNING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THU. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT RWI/FAY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP
EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010638
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY... AND SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR TODAY: AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT... THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... FOSTERED BY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THUS FAR THE LOWEST VSBYS HAVE BEEN OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW
THIS FOG/STRATUS SPREADING OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... AND NOT IMPROVING UNTIL THE 14Z-16Z TIME
FRAME... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE SLOW DISPERSION SEEN YESTERDAY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID MORNING. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE POCKETS OF VERY
LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE MORE DENSE FOG. THE DISSOLUTION OF THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL POST THE NEXT CHALLENGE... GIVEN YESTERDAY`S SLOW
IMPROVEMENT... AND WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AS WELL AS THE HRRR
TRENDS AND SHOW SLOWLY INCREASING SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH LAST OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER. EXPECT A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS... NOTED ON IR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... NOW EXTEND OVER TN INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE UNDERCUTTING THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL... THIS EQUATES TO A TREND FROM
DAYBREAK FOG/STRATUS TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THICKNESSES
ARE 5-10 M HIGHER THAN NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 OVER PIEDMONT (WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST) TO
THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

FOR TONIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS... LIKELY LESS WIDESPREAD AND
LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING OR YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD... NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SHOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE
NAM IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH SUCH CLOUDS THAN THE GFS... SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT AND COVERAGE REMAINS. BUT IF THESE
CLOUDS COME TO PASS... THEY WOULD MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW... AS IT
COULD SIMPLY BE LIGHT FOG. WILL SHOW A TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE. MILD LOWS OF 58-62. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE
AREA...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. IF CURRENT TIMING
HOLDS UP...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED ALOFT...WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST-
EAST. HIGHS 80 TO 85. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODELS INDICATE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPR MIDWEST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
PASSAGE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE
LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING REALLY SHEARS OUT/DAMPENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MID-
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH EASTWARD ADVANCING 30-35KT SWLY LLJ FOCUSING STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LATE DIURNAL TIMING AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LIMITED/WEAK INSTABILITY(200-400
MUCAPE)...THWARTING ANY SEVERE THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING WEST TO EAST
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF A 0.25-0.50".

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON ARRIVAL/ONSET OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. UNDER THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY RANGING FROM MID 70S WEST TO
LOWER 80S EAST. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WEST-EAST TIMING OF FROPA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO LOWER/MID 60S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN WHICH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL HELP SUPPORT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION AS NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. UNTIL MODEL DISCREPANCIES CAN BE IRONED OUT WITH THIS CLIPPER-
LIKE TROUGH...WILL INDICATE CONSERVATIVE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM WEDNESDAY...

CHANCES ARE GOOD FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT RDU/RWI/FAY UNTIL MID
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS
PROMPTED FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG... DENSE IN SPOTS. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN NC OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS... HOLDING THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY DISPERSING.
THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AT INT/GSO... WHERE FOG IS CURRENTLY
LIGHT/PATCHY... AND HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT PLACES THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FOG/STRATUS JUST EAST OF THE TRIAD AREA. WILL HAVE SCTD LOW
STRATUS AND LIGHTER FOG AT INT/GSO... WHILE AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WILL
INDICATE LIFR CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 14Z/15Z. AFTER THIS TIME... EXPECT A
TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. RENEWED
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
(06Z THU). SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND AFFECT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FROM 08Z-13Z THU
MORNING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THU. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT RWI/FAY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP
EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010638
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY... AND SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...

FOR TODAY: AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT... THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN
IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING... FOSTERED BY
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. THUS FAR THE LOWEST VSBYS HAVE BEEN OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW
THIS FOG/STRATUS SPREADING OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... AND NOT IMPROVING UNTIL THE 14Z-16Z TIME
FRAME... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE SLOW DISPERSION SEEN YESTERDAY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID MORNING. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE POCKETS OF VERY
LIGHT MIST WITHIN THE MORE DENSE FOG. THE DISSOLUTION OF THE
FOG/STRATUS WILL POST THE NEXT CHALLENGE... GIVEN YESTERDAY`S SLOW
IMPROVEMENT... AND WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE AS WELL AS THE HRRR
TRENDS AND SHOW SLOWLY INCREASING SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON... WITH THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH LAST OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER. EXPECT A FEW HIGH THIN CLOUDS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS... NOTED ON IR AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... NOW EXTEND OVER TN INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE UNDERCUTTING THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL... THIS EQUATES TO A TREND FROM
DAYBREAK FOG/STRATUS TO PARTLY THEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THICKNESSES
ARE 5-10 M HIGHER THAN NORMAL... SO EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 OVER PIEDMONT (WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER THE LONGEST) TO
THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

FOR TONIGHT: MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE EVENING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS... LIKELY LESS WIDESPREAD AND
LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING OR YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD... NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SHOT OF MOISTURE IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL RETREATING WARM FRONT. THE
NAM IS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH SUCH CLOUDS THAN THE GFS... SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXTENT AND COVERAGE REMAINS. BUT IF THESE
CLOUDS COME TO PASS... THEY WOULD MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW... AS IT
COULD SIMPLY BE LIGHT FOG. WILL SHOW A TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NE. MILD LOWS OF 58-62. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE
AREA...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. IF CURRENT TIMING
HOLDS UP...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED ALOFT...WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST-
EAST. HIGHS 80 TO 85. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODELS INDICATE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPR MIDWEST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
PASSAGE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE
LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING REALLY SHEARS OUT/DAMPENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MID-
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH EASTWARD ADVANCING 30-35KT SWLY LLJ FOCUSING STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LATE DIURNAL TIMING AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LIMITED/WEAK INSTABILITY(200-400
MUCAPE)...THWARTING ANY SEVERE THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING WEST TO EAST
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF A 0.25-0.50".

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON ARRIVAL/ONSET OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. UNDER THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY RANGING FROM MID 70S WEST TO
LOWER 80S EAST. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WEST-EAST TIMING OF FROPA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO LOWER/MID 60S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN WHICH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL HELP SUPPORT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION AS NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. UNTIL MODEL DISCREPANCIES CAN BE IRONED OUT WITH THIS CLIPPER-
LIKE TROUGH...WILL INDICATE CONSERVATIVE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM WEDNESDAY...

CHANCES ARE GOOD FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT RDU/RWI/FAY UNTIL MID
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS
PROMPTED FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG... DENSE IN SPOTS. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN NC OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS... HOLDING THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY DISPERSING.
THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AT INT/GSO... WHERE FOG IS CURRENTLY
LIGHT/PATCHY... AND HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT PLACES THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FOG/STRATUS JUST EAST OF THE TRIAD AREA. WILL HAVE SCTD LOW
STRATUS AND LIGHTER FOG AT INT/GSO... WHILE AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WILL
INDICATE LIFR CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 14Z/15Z. AFTER THIS TIME... EXPECT A
TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. RENEWED
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
(06Z THU). SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND AFFECT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FROM 08Z-13Z THU
MORNING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THU. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT RWI/FAY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP
EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010525
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
125 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY... AND SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...

THE PROBLEM OF THE NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
AGAIN OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND N COASTAL PLAIN... AGAIN POTENTIALLY
DENSE.

IT TOOK MUCH OF THE DAY TO DISSOLVE THE STRATUS LAYER OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT. THE END
RESULT WAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EVAPORATION OF TOP SOIL MOISTURE
THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION. DEW POINTS FAILED TO MIX OUT AND DRY
AND WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 60S IN THESE AREAS THIS EVENING. THERE
HAS BEEN A RAPID LOW LEVEL INVERSION SET UP THIS EVENING WITH THE
LINGERING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER... CLEAR SKIES... AND STRONG DIURNAL
TEMP FALL WITH SUNSET. THIS IS ESPECIALLY EVIDENT AT MID-EVENING
FROM ROXBORO AND RALEIGH TO ROCKY MOUNT AND HALIFAX. THERE ARE
REPORTS OF FOG ALREADY IN THIS REGION... SOME LOCALLY BECOMING DENSE
(1/4 MILE VSBY OR LESS). WITH THE TEMP/DEW POINT TEMP SPREAD ALREADY
LESS THAN 3 DEGREES... FOG APPEARS INEVITABLE.

ELSEWHERE... AFTERNOON SUN LED TO SOME DECENT EVAPORATION AND LED TO
HIGHS AROUND 80. THERE WAS ENOUGH MIXING IN THAT THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WAS SLOWER TO SET UP FROM GREENSBORO AND
SOUTH AND WEST.

BOTTOM LINE... FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ESPECIALLY FROM ROXBORO AND RALEIGH NORTH AND EAST
TO ROCKY MOUNT AND ROANOKE RAPIDS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED LATER IF THE DENSE FOG IS THOUGHT TO BECOME WIDESPREAD TO
BECOME A HAZARD TO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS. FOR NOW... WE WILL TREND
TOWARD THAT SCENARIO BY PLACING AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE... MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE. LOWS 55-60 WEST AND
LOWER 60S EAST AND SOUTH. FOG SHOULD LIFT AS A STATUS DECK OF CLOUDS
AGAIN WED... AND MAY LINGER AGAIN UNTIL LATE MORNING IN THE NE
ZONES. -PWB

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: COMPLEX PATTERN IN THIS PERIOD WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WED AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY. SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES DIGGING SE INTO VA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING
UPPER LOW ON WED COULD PERHAPS PROVIDE A GLANCING BOUT OF DPVA
DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE...ONE WOULD EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO
GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
PROGRESSES TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
DEVELOP VERY LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WED...WHILE THE
NAM GENERATES ADDITIONAL PRECIP WED NIGHT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN WHY MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WED/WED
NIGHT...ESP WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL/SHALLOW
INSTABILITY (EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10 KFT). AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY FCST. HIGHS WED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. -VINCENT

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE
AREA...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. IF CURRENT TIMING
HOLDS UP...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED ALOFT...WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST-
EAST. HIGHS 80 TO 85. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODELS INDICATE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPR MIDWEST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
PASSAGE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE
LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING REALLY SHEARS OUT/DAMPENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MID-
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH EASTWARD ADVANCING 30-35KT SWLY LLJ FOCUSING STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LATE DIURNAL TIMING AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LIMITED/WEAK INSTABILITY(200-400
MUCAPE)...THWARTING ANY SEVERE THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING WEST TO EAST
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF A 0.25-0.50".

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON ARRIVAL/ONSET OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. UNDER THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY RANGING FROM MID 70S WEST TO
LOWER 80S EAST. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WEST-EAST TIMING OF FROPA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO LOWER/MID 60S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN WHICH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL HELP SUPPORT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION AS NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. UNTIL MODEL DISCREPANCIES CAN BE IRONED OUT WITH THIS CLIPPER-
LIKE TROUGH...WILL INDICATE CONSERVATIVE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM WEDNESDAY...

CHANCES ARE GOOD FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT RDU/RWI/FAY UNTIL MID
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS
PROMPTED FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG... DENSE IN SPOTS. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN NC OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS... HOLDING THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY DISPERSING.
THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AT INT/GSO... WHERE FOG IS CURRENTLY
LIGHT/PATCHY... AND HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT PLACES THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FOG/STRATUS JUST EAST OF THE TRIAD AREA. WILL HAVE SCTD LOW
STRATUS AND LIGHTER FOG AT INT/GSO... WHILE AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WILL
INDICATE LIFR CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 14Z/15Z. AFTER THIS TIME... EXPECT A
TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. RENEWED
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
(06Z THU). SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND AFFECT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FROM 08Z-13Z THU
MORNING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THU. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT RWI/FAY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP
EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010525
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
125 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE FRIDAY... AND SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...

THE PROBLEM OF THE NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
AGAIN OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND N COASTAL PLAIN... AGAIN POTENTIALLY
DENSE.

IT TOOK MUCH OF THE DAY TO DISSOLVE THE STRATUS LAYER OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT. THE END
RESULT WAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EVAPORATION OF TOP SOIL MOISTURE
THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION. DEW POINTS FAILED TO MIX OUT AND DRY
AND WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 60S IN THESE AREAS THIS EVENING. THERE
HAS BEEN A RAPID LOW LEVEL INVERSION SET UP THIS EVENING WITH THE
LINGERING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER... CLEAR SKIES... AND STRONG DIURNAL
TEMP FALL WITH SUNSET. THIS IS ESPECIALLY EVIDENT AT MID-EVENING
FROM ROXBORO AND RALEIGH TO ROCKY MOUNT AND HALIFAX. THERE ARE
REPORTS OF FOG ALREADY IN THIS REGION... SOME LOCALLY BECOMING DENSE
(1/4 MILE VSBY OR LESS). WITH THE TEMP/DEW POINT TEMP SPREAD ALREADY
LESS THAN 3 DEGREES... FOG APPEARS INEVITABLE.

ELSEWHERE... AFTERNOON SUN LED TO SOME DECENT EVAPORATION AND LED TO
HIGHS AROUND 80. THERE WAS ENOUGH MIXING IN THAT THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WAS SLOWER TO SET UP FROM GREENSBORO AND
SOUTH AND WEST.

BOTTOM LINE... FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ESPECIALLY FROM ROXBORO AND RALEIGH NORTH AND EAST
TO ROCKY MOUNT AND ROANOKE RAPIDS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED LATER IF THE DENSE FOG IS THOUGHT TO BECOME WIDESPREAD TO
BECOME A HAZARD TO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS. FOR NOW... WE WILL TREND
TOWARD THAT SCENARIO BY PLACING AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE... MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE. LOWS 55-60 WEST AND
LOWER 60S EAST AND SOUTH. FOG SHOULD LIFT AS A STATUS DECK OF CLOUDS
AGAIN WED... AND MAY LINGER AGAIN UNTIL LATE MORNING IN THE NE
ZONES. -PWB

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: COMPLEX PATTERN IN THIS PERIOD WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WED AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY. SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES DIGGING SE INTO VA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING
UPPER LOW ON WED COULD PERHAPS PROVIDE A GLANCING BOUT OF DPVA
DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE...ONE WOULD EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO
GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
PROGRESSES TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
DEVELOP VERY LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WED...WHILE THE
NAM GENERATES ADDITIONAL PRECIP WED NIGHT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN WHY MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WED/WED
NIGHT...ESP WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL/SHALLOW
INSTABILITY (EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10 KFT). AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY FCST. HIGHS WED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. -VINCENT

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE
AREA...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. IF CURRENT TIMING
HOLDS UP...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED ALOFT...WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST-
EAST. HIGHS 80 TO 85. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODELS INDICATE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPR MIDWEST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
PASSAGE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE
LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING REALLY SHEARS OUT/DAMPENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MID-
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH EASTWARD ADVANCING 30-35KT SWLY LLJ FOCUSING STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LATE DIURNAL TIMING AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LIMITED/WEAK INSTABILITY(200-400
MUCAPE)...THWARTING ANY SEVERE THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING WEST TO EAST
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF A 0.25-0.50".

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON ARRIVAL/ONSET OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. UNDER THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY RANGING FROM MID 70S WEST TO
LOWER 80S EAST. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WEST-EAST TIMING OF FROPA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO LOWER/MID 60S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN WHICH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL HELP SUPPORT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION AS NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. UNTIL MODEL DISCREPANCIES CAN BE IRONED OUT WITH THIS CLIPPER-
LIKE TROUGH...WILL INDICATE CONSERVATIVE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM WEDNESDAY...

CHANCES ARE GOOD FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT RDU/RWI/FAY UNTIL MID
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS HAS
PROMPTED FORMATION OF AREAS OF FOG... DENSE IN SPOTS. THIS FOG IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN NC OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS... HOLDING THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY DISPERSING.
THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AT INT/GSO... WHERE FOG IS CURRENTLY
LIGHT/PATCHY... AND HIGH-RES MODEL OUTPUT PLACES THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE FOG/STRATUS JUST EAST OF THE TRIAD AREA. WILL HAVE SCTD LOW
STRATUS AND LIGHTER FOG AT INT/GSO... WHILE AT RDU/RWI/FAY... WILL
INDICATE LIFR CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL 14Z/15Z. AFTER THIS TIME... EXPECT A
TREND TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE REGION. RENEWED
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD
(06Z THU). SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY THU MORNING... MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND AFFECT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FROM 08Z-13Z THU
MORNING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THU. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AT RWI/FAY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING... BUT
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP
EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RESUME SAT AFTERNOON... LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010140
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
930 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...

THE PROBLEM OF THE NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
AGAIN OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND N COASTAL PLAIN... AGAIN POTENTIALLY
DENSE.

IT TOOK MUCH OF THE DAY TO DISSOLVE THE STRATUS LAYER OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT. THE END
RESULT WAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EVAPORATION OF TOP SOIL MOISTURE
THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION. DEW POINTS FAILED TO MIX OUT AND DRY
AND WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 60S IN THESE AREAS THIS EVENING. THERE
HAS BEEN A RAPID LOW LEVEL INVERSION SET UP THIS EVENING WITH THE
LINGERING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER... CLEAR SKIES... AND STRONG DIURNAL
TEMP FALL WITH SUNSET. THIS IS ESPECIALLY EVIDENT AT MID-EVENING
FROM ROXBORO AND RALEIGH TO ROCKY MOUNT AND HALIFAX. THERE ARE
REPORTS OF FOG ALREADY IN THIS REGION... SOME LOCALLY BECOMING DENSE
(1/4 MILE VSBY OR LESS). WITH THE TEMP/DEW POINT TEMP SPREAD ALREADY
LESS THAN 3 DEGREES... FOG APPEARS INEVITABLE.

ELSEWHERE... AFTERNOON SUN LED TO SOME DECENT EVAPORATION AND LED TO
HIGHS AROUND 80. THERE WAS ENOUGH MIXING IN THAT THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WAS SLOWER TO SET UP FROM GREENSBORO AND
SOUTH AND WEST.

BOTTOM LINE... FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ESPECIALLY FROM ROXBORO AND RALEIGH NORTH AND EAST
TO ROCKY MOUNT AND ROANOKE RAPIDS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED LATER IF THE DENSE FOG IS THOUGHT TO BECOME WIDESPREAD TO
BECOME A HAZARD TO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS. FOR NOW... WE WILL TREND
TOWARD THAT SCENARIO BY PLACING AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE... MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE. LOWS 55-60 WEST AND
LOWER 60S EAST AND SOUTH. FOG SHOULD LIFT AS A STATUS DECK OF CLOUDS
AGAIN WED... AND MAY LINGER AGAIN UNTIL LATE MORNING IN THE NE
ZONES. -PWB

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: COMPLEX PATTERN IN THIS PERIOD WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WED AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY. SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES DIGGING SE INTO VA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING
UPPER LOW ON WED COULD PERHAPS PROVIDE A GLANCING BOUT OF DPVA
DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE...ONE WOULD EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO
GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
PROGRESSES TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
DEVELOP VERY LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WED...WHILE THE
NAM GENERATES ADDITIONAL PRECIP WED NIGHT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN WHY MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WED/WED
NIGHT...ESP WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL/SHALLOW
INSTABILITY (EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10 KFT). AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY FCST. HIGHS WED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. -VINCENT

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE
AREA...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. IF CURRENT TIMING
HOLDS UP...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED ALOFT...WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST-
EAST. HIGHS 80 TO 85. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODELS INDICATE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPR MIDWEST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
PASSAGE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE
LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING REALLY SHEARS OUT/DAMPENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MID-
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH EASTWARD ADVANCING 30-35KT SWLY LLJ FOCUSING STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LATE DIURNAL TIMING AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LIMITED/WEAK INSTABILITY(200-400
MUCAPE)...THWARTING ANY SEVERE THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING WEST TO EAST
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF A 0.25-0.50".

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON ARRIVAL/ONSET OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. UNDER THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY RANGING FROM MID 70S WEST TO
LOWER 80S EAST. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WEST-EAST TIMING OF FROPA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO LOWER/MID 60S SE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN WHICH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL HELP SUPPORT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION AS NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. UNTIL MODEL DISCREPANCIES CAN BE IRONED OUT WITH THIS CLIPPER-
LIKE TROUGH...WILL INDICATE CONSERVATIVE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA HAS LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CALM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD LEAD
TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT A SURE BET AS MODELS
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT (WITH ONE SHOWING PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS
ALL NIGHT). NEVERTHELESS... GIVEN A SIMILAR SET UP TO LAST NIGHT
(MINUS THE LIGHT RAIN THAT OCCURRED ON MONDAY)...WENT AHEAD AND
INCLUDED IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS IN ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT THE TRIAD WHERE
THERE IS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR (BUT STILL INCLUDED SOME SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS). CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE MID MORNING
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE FRI AND
EARLY SAT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
WEST.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010140
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
930 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM TUESDAY...

THE PROBLEM OF THE NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
AGAIN OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND N COASTAL PLAIN... AGAIN POTENTIALLY
DENSE.

IT TOOK MUCH OF THE DAY TO DISSOLVE THE STRATUS LAYER OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT. THE END
RESULT WAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EVAPORATION OF TOP SOIL MOISTURE
THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS REGION. DEW POINTS FAILED TO MIX OUT AND DRY
AND WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 60S IN THESE AREAS THIS EVENING. THERE
HAS BEEN A RAPID LOW LEVEL INVERSION SET UP THIS EVENING WITH THE
LINGERING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER... CLEAR SKIES... AND STRONG DIURNAL
TEMP FALL WITH SUNSET. THIS IS ESPECIALLY EVIDENT AT MID-EVENING
FROM ROXBORO AND RALEIGH TO ROCKY MOUNT AND HALIFAX. THERE ARE
REPORTS OF FOG ALREADY IN THIS REGION... SOME LOCALLY BECOMING DENSE
(1/4 MILE VSBY OR LESS). WITH THE TEMP/DEW POINT TEMP SPREAD ALREADY
LESS THAN 3 DEGREES... FOG APPEARS INEVITABLE.

ELSEWHERE... AFTERNOON SUN LED TO SOME DECENT EVAPORATION AND LED TO
HIGHS AROUND 80. THERE WAS ENOUGH MIXING IN THAT THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WAS SLOWER TO SET UP FROM GREENSBORO AND
SOUTH AND WEST.

BOTTOM LINE... FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ESPECIALLY FROM ROXBORO AND RALEIGH NORTH AND EAST
TO ROCKY MOUNT AND ROANOKE RAPIDS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED LATER IF THE DENSE FOG IS THOUGHT TO BECOME WIDESPREAD TO
BECOME A HAZARD TO EARLY MORNING COMMUTERS. FOR NOW... WE WILL TREND
TOWARD THAT SCENARIO BY PLACING AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE... MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE. LOWS 55-60 WEST AND
LOWER 60S EAST AND SOUTH. FOG SHOULD LIFT AS A STATUS DECK OF CLOUDS
AGAIN WED... AND MAY LINGER AGAIN UNTIL LATE MORNING IN THE NE
ZONES. -PWB

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: COMPLEX PATTERN IN THIS PERIOD WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WED AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY. SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES DIGGING SE INTO VA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING
UPPER LOW ON WED COULD PERHAPS PROVIDE A GLANCING BOUT OF DPVA
DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE...ONE WOULD EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO
GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
PROGRESSES TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
DEVELOP VERY LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WED...WHILE THE
NAM GENERATES ADDITIONAL PRECIP WED NIGHT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN WHY MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WED/WED
NIGHT...ESP WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL/SHALLOW
INSTABILITY (EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10 KFT). AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY FCST. HIGHS WED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. -VINCENT

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE
AREA...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. IF CURRENT TIMING
HOLDS UP...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED ALOFT...WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST-
EAST. HIGHS 80 TO 85. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODELS INDICATE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPR MIDWEST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
PASSAGE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE
LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING REALLY SHEARS OUT/DAMPENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MID-
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH EASTWARD ADVANCING 30-35KT SWLY LLJ FOCUSING STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LATE DIURNAL TIMING AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LIMITED/WEAK INSTABILITY(200-400
MUCAPE)...THWARTING ANY SEVERE THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING WEST TO EAST
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF A 0.25-0.50".

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON ARRIVAL/ONSET OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. UNDER THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY RANGING FROM MID 70S WEST TO
LOWER 80S EAST. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WEST-EAST TIMING OF FROPA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO LOWER/MID 60S SE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN WHICH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL HELP SUPPORT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION AS NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. UNTIL MODEL DISCREPANCIES CAN BE IRONED OUT WITH THIS CLIPPER-
LIKE TROUGH...WILL INDICATE CONSERVATIVE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA HAS LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CALM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD LEAD
TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT A SURE BET AS MODELS
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT (WITH ONE SHOWING PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS
ALL NIGHT). NEVERTHELESS... GIVEN A SIMILAR SET UP TO LAST NIGHT
(MINUS THE LIGHT RAIN THAT OCCURRED ON MONDAY)...WENT AHEAD AND
INCLUDED IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS IN ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT THE TRIAD WHERE
THERE IS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR (BUT STILL INCLUDED SOME SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS). CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE MID MORNING
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE FRI AND
EARLY SAT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
WEST.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010009
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
809 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES IN ASSOC/W INSOLATION. EXPECT
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS LONG AS CLOUD
COVER SCATTERS OUT BY ~18Z. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC NEAR
OR JUST NORTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
(AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL) ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...THOUGH A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER COULD NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BETWEEN 00-
06Z WED IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60F.

WED/WED NIGHT: COMPLEX PATTERN IN THIS PERIOD WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WED AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY. SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES DIGGING SE INTO VA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING
UPPER LOW ON WED COULD PERHAPS PROVIDE A GLANCING BOUT OF DPVA
DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE...ONE WOULD EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO
GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
PROGRESSES TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
DEVELOP VERY LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WED...WHILE THE
NAM GENERATES ADDITIONAL PRECIP WED NIGHT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN WHY MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WED/WED
NIGHT...ESP WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL/SHALLOW
INSTABILITY (EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10 KFT). AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY FCST. HIGHS WED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE
AREA...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. IF CURRENT TIMING
HOLDS UP...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED ALOFT...WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST-
EAST. HIGHS 80 TO 85. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODELS INDICATE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPR MIDWEST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
PASSAGE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE
LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING REALLY SHEARS OUT/DAMPENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MID-
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH EASTWARD ADVANCING 30-35KT SWLY LLJ FOCUSING STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LATE DIURNAL TIMING AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LIMITED/WEAK INSTABILITY(200-400
MUCAPE)...THWARTING ANY SEVERE THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING WEST TO EAST
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF A 0.25-0.50".

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON ARRIVAL/ONSET OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. UNDER THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY RANGING FROM MID 70S WEST TO
LOWER 80S EAST. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WEST-EAST TIMING OF FROPA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO LOWER/MID 60S SE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN WHICH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL HELP SUPPORT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION AS NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. UNTIL MODEL DISCREPANCIES CAN BE IRONED OUT WITH THIS CLIPPER-
LIKE TROUGH...WILL INDICATE CONSERVATIVE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA HAS LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CALM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD LEAD
TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT A SURE BET AS MODELS
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT (WITH ONE SHOWING PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS
ALL NIGHT). NEVERTHELESS... GIVEN A SIMILAR SET UP TO LAST NIGHT
(MINUS THE LIGHT RAIN THAT OCCURRED ON MONDAY)...WENT AHEAD AND
INCLUDED IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS IN ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT THE TRIAD WHERE
THERE IS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR (BUT STILL INCLUDED SOME SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS). CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE MID MORNING
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE FRI AND
EARLY SAT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
WEST.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010009
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
809 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES IN ASSOC/W INSOLATION. EXPECT
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS LONG AS CLOUD
COVER SCATTERS OUT BY ~18Z. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC NEAR
OR JUST NORTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
(AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL) ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...THOUGH A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER COULD NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BETWEEN 00-
06Z WED IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60F.

WED/WED NIGHT: COMPLEX PATTERN IN THIS PERIOD WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WED AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY. SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES DIGGING SE INTO VA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING
UPPER LOW ON WED COULD PERHAPS PROVIDE A GLANCING BOUT OF DPVA
DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE...ONE WOULD EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO
GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
PROGRESSES TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
DEVELOP VERY LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WED...WHILE THE
NAM GENERATES ADDITIONAL PRECIP WED NIGHT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN WHY MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WED/WED
NIGHT...ESP WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL/SHALLOW
INSTABILITY (EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10 KFT). AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY FCST. HIGHS WED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE
AREA...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. IF CURRENT TIMING
HOLDS UP...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED ALOFT...WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST-
EAST. HIGHS 80 TO 85. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODELS INDICATE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPR MIDWEST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
PASSAGE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE
LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING REALLY SHEARS OUT/DAMPENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MID-
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH EASTWARD ADVANCING 30-35KT SWLY LLJ FOCUSING STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LATE DIURNAL TIMING AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LIMITED/WEAK INSTABILITY(200-400
MUCAPE)...THWARTING ANY SEVERE THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING WEST TO EAST
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF A 0.25-0.50".

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON ARRIVAL/ONSET OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. UNDER THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY RANGING FROM MID 70S WEST TO
LOWER 80S EAST. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WEST-EAST TIMING OF FROPA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO LOWER/MID 60S SE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN WHICH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL HELP SUPPORT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION AS NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. UNTIL MODEL DISCREPANCIES CAN BE IRONED OUT WITH THIS CLIPPER-
LIKE TROUGH...WILL INDICATE CONSERVATIVE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA HAS LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CALM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD LEAD
TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF FOG. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT A SURE BET AS MODELS
ARE IN DISAGREEMENT (WITH ONE SHOWING PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS
ALL NIGHT). NEVERTHELESS... GIVEN A SIMILAR SET UP TO LAST NIGHT
(MINUS THE LIGHT RAIN THAT OCCURRED ON MONDAY)...WENT AHEAD AND
INCLUDED IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS IN ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT THE TRIAD WHERE
THERE IS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR (BUT STILL INCLUDED SOME SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS). CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY THE MID MORNING
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE FRI AND
EARLY SAT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
WEST.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KRD/VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301837
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES IN ASSOC/W INSOLATION. EXPECT
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS LONG AS CLOUD
COVER SCATTERS OUT BY ~18Z. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC NEAR
OR JUST NORTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
(AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL) ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...THOUGH A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER COULD NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BETWEEN 00-
06Z WED IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60F.

WED/WED NIGHT: COMPLEX PATTERN IN THIS PERIOD WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WED AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY. SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES DIGGING SE INTO VA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING
UPPER LOW ON WED COULD PERHAPS PROVIDE A GLANCING BOUT OF DPVA
DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE...ONE WOULD EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO
GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
PROGRESSES TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
DEVELOP VERY LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WED...WHILE THE
NAM GENERATES ADDITIONAL PRECIP WED NIGHT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN WHY MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WED/WED
NIGHT...ESP WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL/SHALLOW
INSTABILITY (EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10 KFT). AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY FCST. HIGHS WED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE
AREA...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. IF CURRENT TIMING
HOLDS UP...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED ALOFT...WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST-
EAST. HIGHS 80 TO 85. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODELS INDICATE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPR MIDWEST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
PASSAGE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE
LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING REALLY SHEARS OUT/DAMPENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MID-
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH EASTWARD ADVANCING 30-35KT SWLY LLJ FOCUSING STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LATE DIURNAL TIMING AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LIMITED/WEAK INSTABILITY(200-400
MUCAPE)...THWARTING ANY SEVERE THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING WEST TO EAST
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF A 0.25-0.50".

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON ARRIVAL/ONSET OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. UNDER THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY RANGING FROM MID 70S WEST TO
LOWER 80S EAST. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WEST-EAST TIMING OF FROPA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO LOWER/MID 60S SE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN WHICH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL HELP SUPPORT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION AS NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. UNTIL MODEL DISCREPANCIES CAN BE IRONED OUT WITH THIS CLIPPER-
LIKE TROUGH...WILL INDICATE CONSERVATIVE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT TO MVFR
BETWEEN 15-18Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
REPEAT OF WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CEILINGS IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT...
THOUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (I.E. RDU/FAY/RWI) COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF FOG BETWEEN 08-12Z WED MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WED AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301837
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES IN ASSOC/W INSOLATION. EXPECT
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS LONG AS CLOUD
COVER SCATTERS OUT BY ~18Z. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC NEAR
OR JUST NORTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
(AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL) ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...THOUGH A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER COULD NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BETWEEN 00-
06Z WED IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60F.

WED/WED NIGHT: COMPLEX PATTERN IN THIS PERIOD WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WED AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY. SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES DIGGING SE INTO VA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING
UPPER LOW ON WED COULD PERHAPS PROVIDE A GLANCING BOUT OF DPVA
DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE...ONE WOULD EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO
GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
PROGRESSES TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
DEVELOP VERY LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WED...WHILE THE
NAM GENERATES ADDITIONAL PRECIP WED NIGHT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN WHY MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WED/WED
NIGHT...ESP WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL/SHALLOW
INSTABILITY (EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10 KFT). AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY FCST. HIGHS WED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE
AREA...DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. IF CURRENT TIMING
HOLDS UP...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED ALOFT...WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST-
EAST. HIGHS 80 TO 85. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MODELS INDICATE PHASING NORTHERN STREAM AND
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPR MIDWEST AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN REALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
PASSAGE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  THE
LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING REALLY SHEARS OUT/DAMPENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MID-
ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH EASTWARD ADVANCING 30-35KT SWLY LLJ FOCUSING STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. LATE DIURNAL TIMING AND MODEST LAPSE
RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LIMITED/WEAK INSTABILITY(200-400
MUCAPE)...THWARTING ANY SEVERE THREAT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...DECREASING WEST TO EAST
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS FRONT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH
AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS OF A 0.25-0.50".

MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON ARRIVAL/ONSET OF
SHOWERS/CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. UNDER THICKENING CLOUD
COVER...A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY RANGING FROM MID 70S WEST TO
LOWER 80S EAST. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON WEST-EAST TIMING OF FROPA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE AREA...RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S NORTHWEST
TO LOWER/MID 60S SE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM TUESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SHIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY. AFTER A
CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING IN WHICH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL HELP SUPPORT MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION AS NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. UNTIL MODEL DISCREPANCIES CAN BE IRONED OUT WITH THIS CLIPPER-
LIKE TROUGH...WILL INDICATE CONSERVATIVE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT TO MVFR
BETWEEN 15-18Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
REPEAT OF WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CEILINGS IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT...
THOUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (I.E. RDU/FAY/RWI) COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF FOG BETWEEN 08-12Z WED MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WED AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 301625
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1225 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES IN ASSOC/W INSOLATION. EXPECT
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS LONG AS CLOUD
COVER SCATTERS OUT BY ~18Z. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC NEAR
OR JUST NORTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
(AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL) ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...THOUGH A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER COULD NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BETWEEN 00-
06Z WED IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60F.

WED/WED NIGHT: COMPLEX PATTERN IN THIS PERIOD WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WED AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY. SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES DIGGING SE INTO VA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING
UPPER LOW ON WED COULD PERHAPS PROVIDE A GLANCING BOUT OF DPVA
DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE...ONE WOULD EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO
GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
PROGRESSES TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
DEVELOP VERY LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WED...WHILE THE
NAM GENERATES ADDITIONAL PRECIP WED NIGHT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN WHY MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WED/WED
NIGHT...ESP WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL/SHALLOW
INSTABILITY (EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10 KFT). AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY FCST. HIGHS WED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...

TO BE UPDATED SOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF AN
ELONGATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY
00Z SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. ONE TREND
HAS BEEN FOR THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED...
WHICH...IF THE TREND CONTINUES...COULD SLOW THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. LAPSE RATES ON COARSE GFS
AND ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC AT BEST...SO
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. STILL...WITH WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE
INCREASING TO AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 30KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY STRONGER STORM COULD HAVE A GUSTY
WIND...THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT CURRENTLY IN THE PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
BE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES CONTINUE
TO FORECAST GREATER DIGGING WITH UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND EAST ACROSS AREAS JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THE TREND OF THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED...BUT CURRENTLY THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW ON THE ECMWF STAYS NORTH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...SOME JET STREAK CIRRUS COULD OCCUR IF
THE GFS AND ECMWF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS VERIFY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE JET AXIS ALOFT.

THE ECMWF IS ALSO MORE AMPLIFIED WITH ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID-
LEVEL WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...THIS ONE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY. THE GFS IS DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF A SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE AND ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF...IF THERE IS ANY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY...THE THOUGHT IS IT WOULD BE MID-LEVEL DRIVEN
AND MOSTLY LIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL TREND A LITTLE MORE
PESSIMISTIC ON THE LAST DAY OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT KEEPING THE OVERALL FORECAST DRY.

AFTER HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS CHILLY 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES INTO THE 1340S...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW 40S OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MODEST WARMING FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK AT LEAST IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT TO MVFR
BETWEEN 15-18Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
REPEAT OF WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CEILINGS IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT...
THOUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (I.E. RDU/FAY/RWI) COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF FOG BETWEEN 08-12Z WED MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WED AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 301625
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1225 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES IN ASSOC/W INSOLATION. EXPECT
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS LONG AS CLOUD
COVER SCATTERS OUT BY ~18Z. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC NEAR
OR JUST NORTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
(AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL) ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...THOUGH A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER COULD NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT BETWEEN 00-
06Z WED IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60F.

WED/WED NIGHT: COMPLEX PATTERN IN THIS PERIOD WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC TONIGHT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WED AS
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY. SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES DIGGING SE INTO VA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXITING
UPPER LOW ON WED COULD PERHAPS PROVIDE A GLANCING BOUT OF DPVA
DURING THE DAY...OTHERWISE...ONE WOULD EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO
GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
PROGRESSES TO THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
DEVELOP VERY LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WED...WHILE THE
NAM GENERATES ADDITIONAL PRECIP WED NIGHT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN WHY MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WED/WED
NIGHT...ESP WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL/SHALLOW
INSTABILITY (EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL ~10 KFT). AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY FCST. HIGHS WED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY...IN
THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WED NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM TUESDAY...

TO BE UPDATED SOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF AN
ELONGATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY
00Z SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. ONE TREND
HAS BEEN FOR THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED...
WHICH...IF THE TREND CONTINUES...COULD SLOW THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. LAPSE RATES ON COARSE GFS
AND ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC AT BEST...SO
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. STILL...WITH WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE
INCREASING TO AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 30KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY STRONGER STORM COULD HAVE A GUSTY
WIND...THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT CURRENTLY IN THE PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
BE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES CONTINUE
TO FORECAST GREATER DIGGING WITH UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND EAST ACROSS AREAS JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THE TREND OF THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED...BUT CURRENTLY THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW ON THE ECMWF STAYS NORTH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...SOME JET STREAK CIRRUS COULD OCCUR IF
THE GFS AND ECMWF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS VERIFY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE JET AXIS ALOFT.

THE ECMWF IS ALSO MORE AMPLIFIED WITH ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID-
LEVEL WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...THIS ONE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY. THE GFS IS DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF A SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE AND ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF...IF THERE IS ANY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY...THE THOUGHT IS IT WOULD BE MID-LEVEL DRIVEN
AND MOSTLY LIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL TREND A LITTLE MORE
PESSIMISTIC ON THE LAST DAY OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT KEEPING THE OVERALL FORECAST DRY.

AFTER HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS CHILLY 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES INTO THE 1340S...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW 40S OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MODEST WARMING FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK AT LEAST IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT TO MVFR
BETWEEN 15-18Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
REPEAT OF WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CEILINGS IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT...
THOUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (I.E. RDU/FAY/RWI) COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF FOG BETWEEN 08-12Z WED MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WED AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301348
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
948 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...

DENSE FOG HAS BEGUN TO LIFT INTO A LOW-OVERCAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS
OF 930 AM THIS MORNING...AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN LITTLE OR NO ADVECTION AND WEAK
VERTICAL MIXING ASIDE FROM THAT WHICH ARISES FROM INCREASING
INSOLATION. EXPECT HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
AS LONG AS CLOUD COVER SCATTERS OUT BY ~18Z. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIGGING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL FORCING (AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION) ASSOC/W
THIS FEATURE WILL LARGELY REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...THOUGH A
PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER COULD NOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT BETWEEN 00-06Z WED IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...

AS NOTED ABOVE... WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
MAINLY OVER THE EAST WED MORNING. THE PRESENCE OR LACK OF SUCH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH FOG FORMS WED MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG TO START THE DAY... AND PERHAPS MORE DENSE IF
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS DO NOT HAPPEN.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE CLIPPER LOW
WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND AS THE STRONG VORTICITY MAX ROUNDS ITS
BASE... SHIFTING OFF THE NJ COAST... AND WE SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE
FLAT DAYTIME CUMULUS FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE
LOW. MODELS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE... BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CLIPPER AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
COVERING THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS LATE WED/WED NIGHT.
WHILE MODELS SHOW A MINOR PERTURBATION TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WED NIGHT... THIS SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE
WITH DEEP DRY AIR MOVING IN. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH WED NIGHT.
THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO START WED ABOUT 10 M ABOVE NORMAL...
SUPPORTING HIGHS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL... 80-84. SOME
CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST WHERE MODELS
INDICATE AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATED BY
LIGHT BUT CONFLUENT AND UPSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOWS WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF 60. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...WITH THE AXIS
MOVING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO FORECAST
VERY MINOR QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH
THE GFS FORECASTING THIS THURSDAY AND THE NAM MORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS DOES HAVE A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF 850MB THETA-E AIR OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY WITH WEAK 850MB LIFT...BUT HEIGHTS
ALOFT ARE RISING AND ANY LOW-LEVEL FORCING WITH ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE WEAK. LIFTED INDICES ARE ABOVE 0C...AND MLCAPE IN THE
LOWEST KM DOES NOT REGISTER AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS APPEAR CAPPED. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES...POSSIBLY A SHOWER COULD DRIFT SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE
THERMAL WIND FROM HIGHER TERRAIN AND GET CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE IN SINGLE FIGURES
IN BOTH THE MAV AND THE MET. WITH AT LEAST A PARTLY SUNNY SKY
EXPECTED...1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST LOWER TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
NIGHT...LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE AND POSSIBLY ON THE HIGHER END OF THE
LOWER 60S TOWARD THE TRIAD AS THE WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE START TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF AN
ELONGATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY
00Z SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. ONE TREND
HAS BEEN FOR THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED...
WHICH...IF THE TREND CONTINUES...COULD SLOW THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. LAPSE RATES ON COARSE GFS
AND ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC AT BEST...SO
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. STILL...WITH WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE
INCREASING TO AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 30KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY STRONGER STORM COULD HAVE A GUSTY
WIND...THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT CURRENTLY IN THE PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
BE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES CONTINUE
TO FORECAST GREATER DIGGING WITH UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND EAST ACROSS AREAS JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THE TREND OF THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED...BUT CURRENTLY THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW ON THE ECMWF STAYS NORTH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...SOME JET STREAK CIRRUS COULD OCCUR IF
THE GFS AND ECMWF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS VERIFY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE JET AXIS ALOFT.

THE ECMWF IS ALSO MORE AMPLIFIED WITH ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID-
LEVEL WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...THIS ONE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY. THE GFS IS DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF A SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE AND ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF...IF THERE IS ANY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY...THE THOUGHT IS IT WOULD BE MID-LEVEL DRIVEN
AND MOSTLY LIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL TREND A LITTLE MORE
PESSIMISTIC ON THE LAST DAY OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT KEEPING THE OVERALL FORECAST DRY.

AFTER HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS CHILLY 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES INTO THE 1340S...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW 40S OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MODEST WARMING FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK AT LEAST IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT TO MVFR
BETWEEN 15-18Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
REPEAT OF WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CEILINGS IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT...
THOUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (I.E. RDU/FAY/RWI) COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF FOG BETWEEN 08-12Z WED MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WED AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301348
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
948 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...

DENSE FOG HAS BEGUN TO LIFT INTO A LOW-OVERCAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS
OF 930 AM THIS MORNING...AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN LITTLE OR NO ADVECTION AND WEAK
VERTICAL MIXING ASIDE FROM THAT WHICH ARISES FROM INCREASING
INSOLATION. EXPECT HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
AS LONG AS CLOUD COVER SCATTERS OUT BY ~18Z. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIGGING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL FORCING (AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION) ASSOC/W
THIS FEATURE WILL LARGELY REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...THOUGH A
PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD SHOWER COULD NOT BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT BETWEEN 00-06Z WED IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...

AS NOTED ABOVE... WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
MAINLY OVER THE EAST WED MORNING. THE PRESENCE OR LACK OF SUCH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH FOG FORMS WED MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG TO START THE DAY... AND PERHAPS MORE DENSE IF
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS DO NOT HAPPEN.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE CLIPPER LOW
WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND AS THE STRONG VORTICITY MAX ROUNDS ITS
BASE... SHIFTING OFF THE NJ COAST... AND WE SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE
FLAT DAYTIME CUMULUS FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE
LOW. MODELS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE... BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CLIPPER AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
COVERING THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS LATE WED/WED NIGHT.
WHILE MODELS SHOW A MINOR PERTURBATION TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WED NIGHT... THIS SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE
WITH DEEP DRY AIR MOVING IN. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH WED NIGHT.
THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO START WED ABOUT 10 M ABOVE NORMAL...
SUPPORTING HIGHS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL... 80-84. SOME
CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST WHERE MODELS
INDICATE AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATED BY
LIGHT BUT CONFLUENT AND UPSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOWS WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF 60. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...WITH THE AXIS
MOVING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO FORECAST
VERY MINOR QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH
THE GFS FORECASTING THIS THURSDAY AND THE NAM MORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS DOES HAVE A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF 850MB THETA-E AIR OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY WITH WEAK 850MB LIFT...BUT HEIGHTS
ALOFT ARE RISING AND ANY LOW-LEVEL FORCING WITH ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE WEAK. LIFTED INDICES ARE ABOVE 0C...AND MLCAPE IN THE
LOWEST KM DOES NOT REGISTER AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS APPEAR CAPPED. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES...POSSIBLY A SHOWER COULD DRIFT SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE
THERMAL WIND FROM HIGHER TERRAIN AND GET CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE IN SINGLE FIGURES
IN BOTH THE MAV AND THE MET. WITH AT LEAST A PARTLY SUNNY SKY
EXPECTED...1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST LOWER TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
NIGHT...LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE AND POSSIBLY ON THE HIGHER END OF THE
LOWER 60S TOWARD THE TRIAD AS THE WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE START TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF AN
ELONGATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY
00Z SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. ONE TREND
HAS BEEN FOR THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED...
WHICH...IF THE TREND CONTINUES...COULD SLOW THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. LAPSE RATES ON COARSE GFS
AND ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC AT BEST...SO
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. STILL...WITH WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE
INCREASING TO AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 30KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY STRONGER STORM COULD HAVE A GUSTY
WIND...THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT CURRENTLY IN THE PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
BE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES CONTINUE
TO FORECAST GREATER DIGGING WITH UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND EAST ACROSS AREAS JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THE TREND OF THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED...BUT CURRENTLY THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW ON THE ECMWF STAYS NORTH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...SOME JET STREAK CIRRUS COULD OCCUR IF
THE GFS AND ECMWF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS VERIFY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE JET AXIS ALOFT.

THE ECMWF IS ALSO MORE AMPLIFIED WITH ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID-
LEVEL WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...THIS ONE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY. THE GFS IS DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF A SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE AND ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF...IF THERE IS ANY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY...THE THOUGHT IS IT WOULD BE MID-LEVEL DRIVEN
AND MOSTLY LIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL TREND A LITTLE MORE
PESSIMISTIC ON THE LAST DAY OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT KEEPING THE OVERALL FORECAST DRY.

AFTER HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS CHILLY 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES INTO THE 1340S...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW 40S OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MODEST WARMING FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK AT LEAST IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 945 AM TUESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT TO MVFR
BETWEEN 15-18Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
REPEAT OF WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CEILINGS IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT...
THOUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (I.E. RDU/FAY/RWI) COULD SEE A
PERIOD OF FOG BETWEEN 08-12Z WED MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WED AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 301041
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
640 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

UPDATE: FOG HAS BECOME QUITE DENSE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS)... WARRANTING ISSUANCE OF A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM. VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
DURING THE 9AM-11AM TIME FRAME.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 222 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY... FIRST CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE DEGREE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THUS FAR. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS NOW HEADING EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST... WITH THE VEIL OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DEPARTING ALONG WITH IT. THE DAMP GROUND COMBINED
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT PATCHY/FLEETING NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS
(SEVERAL SITES HAVE BOUNCED AROUND BETWEEN 1/4 MI AND 5 MI IN FOG
THE LAST FEW HRS) GIVES US PAUSE AS TO THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE HRRR DEPICTS A FAIRLY SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORMING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE OBSERVED TRENDS. IF VSBYS DO DROP AND HOLD THERE FOR OVER AN
HOUR... THEY`RE LIKELY TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH MID MORNING... GIVEN THE
WEAK WIND FIELD THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET RESULTING IN
MINIMAL STIRRING/DISPERSION HORIZONTALLY OR VERTICALLY. WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MID MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. THEN... ONCE HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING HELPS TO DISPERSE
THE FOG/STRATUS... EXPECT A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY...
WITH FLAT AFTERNOON STRATOCU LIKELY TO STAY SCATTERED AT WORST. WITH
THICKNESSES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS... STILL LOOK FOR HIGHS WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80.

FOR TONIGHT: THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE NE WELL OFF THE SE
COAST WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SE TO MINIMIZE ANY IMPACT ON CENTRAL
NC. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HOLDS WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SPANNING THE AREA AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER PA/WV/VA... A REFLECTION OF THE CLIPPER MID LEVEL VORTEX NOW
OVER ERN MI THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MIDATLANTIC REGION REGION
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MODELS VARY IN THEIR IMPACTS ON
OUR WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE... WITH THE NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS IN TAKING A SLUG OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM... SO WILL RETAIN A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT... AND LATER FORECASTS CAN INCREASE THIS COVERAGE IF
LATER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE NAM. LOWS 57-60. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...

AS NOTED ABOVE... WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
MAINLY OVER THE EAST WED MORNING. THE PRESENCE OR LACK OF SUCH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH FOG FORMS WED MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG TO START THE DAY... AND PERHAPS MORE DENSE IF
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS DO NOT HAPPEN.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE CLIPPER LOW
WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND AS THE STRONG VORTICITY MAX ROUNDS ITS
BASE... SHIFTING OFF THE NJ COAST... AND WE SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE
FLAT DAYTIME CUMULUS FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE
LOW. MODELS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE... BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CLIPPER AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
COVERING THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS LATE WED/WED NIGHT.
WHILE MODELS SHOW A MINOR PERTURBATION TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WED NIGHT... THIS SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE
WITH DEEP DRY AIR MOVING IN. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH WED NIGHT.
THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO START WED ABOUT 10 M ABOVE NORMAL...
SUPPORTING HIGHS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL... 80-84. SOME
CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST WHERE MODELS
INDICATE AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATED BY
LIGHT BUT CONFLUENT AND UPSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOWS WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF 60. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...WITH THE AXIS
MOVING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO FORECAST
VERY MINOR QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH
THE GFS FORECASTING THIS THURSDAY AND THE NAM MORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS DOES HAVE A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF 850MB THETA-E AIR OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY WITH WEAK 850MB LIFT...BUT HEIGHTS
ALOFT ARE RISING AND ANY LOW-LEVEL FORCING WITH ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE WEAK. LIFTED INDICES ARE ABOVE 0C...AND MLCAPE IN THE
LOWEST KM DOES NOT REGISTER AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS APPEAR CAPPED. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES...POSSIBLY A SHOWER COULD DRIFT SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE
THERMAL WIND FROM HIGHER TERRAIN AND GET CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE IN SINGLE FIGURES
IN BOTH THE MAV AND THE MET. WITH AT LEAST A PARTLY SUNNY SKY
EXPECTED...1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST LOWER TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
NIGHT...LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE AND POSSIBLY ON THE HIGHER END OF THE
LOWER 60S TOWARD THE TRIAD AS THE WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE START TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF AN
ELONGATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY
00Z SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. ONE TREND
HAS BEEN FOR THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED...
WHICH...IF THE TREND CONTINUES...COULD SLOW THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. LAPSE RATES ON COARSE GFS
AND ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC AT BEST...SO
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. STILL...WITH WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE
INCREASING TO AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 30KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY STRONGER STORM COULD HAVE A GUSTY
WIND...THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT CURENTLY IN THE PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
BE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES CONTINUE
TO FORECAST GREATER DIGGING WITH UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND EAST ACROSS AREAS JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THE TREND OF THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED...BUT CURRENTLY THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW ON THE ECMWF STAYS NORTH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...SOME JET STREAK CIRRUS COULD OCCUR IF
THE GFS AND ECMWF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS VERIFY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE JET AXIS ALOFT.

THE ECMWF IS ALSO MORE AMPLIFIED WITH ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID-
LEVEL WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...THIS ONE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY. THE GFS IS DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF A SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE AND ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF...IF THERE IS ANY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY...THE THOUGHT IS IT WOULD BE MID-LEVEL DRIVEN
AND MOSTLY LIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL TREND A LITTLE MORE
PESSIMISTIC ON THE LAST DAY OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT KEEPING THE OVERALL FORECAST DRY.

AFTER HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS CHILLY 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES INTO THE 1340S...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW 40S OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MODEST WARMING FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK AT LEAST IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM TUESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z THIS MORNING... WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TO FOLLOW
BY LATE MORNING... WHICH WILL HOLD THROUGH 04Z (MIDNIGHT TONIGHT).
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE RESULTANT CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE LED TO LOW STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING. THESE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUOUS... WITH
AVIATION CONDITIONS PERIODICALLY SWINGING WILDLY BETWEEN LIFR AND
MVFR... MAKING THE TAFS CHALLENGING THIS MORNING. PILOTS SHOULD BE
PARTICULARLY ALERT FOR POSSIBLE VFR HOLES WITHIN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE... ANY CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY 15Z OR 16Z... WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT... WE EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW IFR OR LIFR FOG LATE IN THE TAF VALID
PERIOD... WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE (MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST)
MOSTLY UNDER 5 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z WED MORNING... SUB-VFR FOG EARLY WED MORNING
SHOULD MIX OUT BY 15Z. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRI... ALTHOUGH SHALLOW IFR GROUND FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE 08Z-13Z EACH MORNING THU AND FRI. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>077-083>086-088.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 301041
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
640 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

UPDATE: FOG HAS BECOME QUITE DENSE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS)... WARRANTING ISSUANCE OF A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM. VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
DURING THE 9AM-11AM TIME FRAME.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 222 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY... FIRST CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE DEGREE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THUS FAR. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS NOW HEADING EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST... WITH THE VEIL OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DEPARTING ALONG WITH IT. THE DAMP GROUND COMBINED
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT PATCHY/FLEETING NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS
(SEVERAL SITES HAVE BOUNCED AROUND BETWEEN 1/4 MI AND 5 MI IN FOG
THE LAST FEW HRS) GIVES US PAUSE AS TO THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE HRRR DEPICTS A FAIRLY SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORMING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE OBSERVED TRENDS. IF VSBYS DO DROP AND HOLD THERE FOR OVER AN
HOUR... THEY`RE LIKELY TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH MID MORNING... GIVEN THE
WEAK WIND FIELD THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET RESULTING IN
MINIMAL STIRRING/DISPERSION HORIZONTALLY OR VERTICALLY. WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MID MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. THEN... ONCE HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING HELPS TO DISPERSE
THE FOG/STRATUS... EXPECT A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY...
WITH FLAT AFTERNOON STRATOCU LIKELY TO STAY SCATTERED AT WORST. WITH
THICKNESSES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS... STILL LOOK FOR HIGHS WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80.

FOR TONIGHT: THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE NE WELL OFF THE SE
COAST WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SE TO MINIMIZE ANY IMPACT ON CENTRAL
NC. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HOLDS WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SPANNING THE AREA AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER PA/WV/VA... A REFLECTION OF THE CLIPPER MID LEVEL VORTEX NOW
OVER ERN MI THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MIDATLANTIC REGION REGION
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MODELS VARY IN THEIR IMPACTS ON
OUR WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE... WITH THE NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS IN TAKING A SLUG OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM... SO WILL RETAIN A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT... AND LATER FORECASTS CAN INCREASE THIS COVERAGE IF
LATER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE NAM. LOWS 57-60. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...

AS NOTED ABOVE... WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
MAINLY OVER THE EAST WED MORNING. THE PRESENCE OR LACK OF SUCH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH FOG FORMS WED MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG TO START THE DAY... AND PERHAPS MORE DENSE IF
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS DO NOT HAPPEN.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE CLIPPER LOW
WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND AS THE STRONG VORTICITY MAX ROUNDS ITS
BASE... SHIFTING OFF THE NJ COAST... AND WE SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE
FLAT DAYTIME CUMULUS FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE
LOW. MODELS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE... BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CLIPPER AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
COVERING THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS LATE WED/WED NIGHT.
WHILE MODELS SHOW A MINOR PERTURBATION TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WED NIGHT... THIS SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE
WITH DEEP DRY AIR MOVING IN. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH WED NIGHT.
THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO START WED ABOUT 10 M ABOVE NORMAL...
SUPPORTING HIGHS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL... 80-84. SOME
CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST WHERE MODELS
INDICATE AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATED BY
LIGHT BUT CONFLUENT AND UPSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOWS WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF 60. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...WITH THE AXIS
MOVING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO FORECAST
VERY MINOR QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH
THE GFS FORECASTING THIS THURSDAY AND THE NAM MORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS DOES HAVE A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF 850MB THETA-E AIR OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY WITH WEAK 850MB LIFT...BUT HEIGHTS
ALOFT ARE RISING AND ANY LOW-LEVEL FORCING WITH ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE WEAK. LIFTED INDICES ARE ABOVE 0C...AND MLCAPE IN THE
LOWEST KM DOES NOT REGISTER AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS APPEAR CAPPED. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES...POSSIBLY A SHOWER COULD DRIFT SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE
THERMAL WIND FROM HIGHER TERRAIN AND GET CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE IN SINGLE FIGURES
IN BOTH THE MAV AND THE MET. WITH AT LEAST A PARTLY SUNNY SKY
EXPECTED...1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST LOWER TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
NIGHT...LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE AND POSSIBLY ON THE HIGHER END OF THE
LOWER 60S TOWARD THE TRIAD AS THE WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE START TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF AN
ELONGATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY
00Z SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. ONE TREND
HAS BEEN FOR THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED...
WHICH...IF THE TREND CONTINUES...COULD SLOW THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. LAPSE RATES ON COARSE GFS
AND ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC AT BEST...SO
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. STILL...WITH WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE
INCREASING TO AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 30KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY STRONGER STORM COULD HAVE A GUSTY
WIND...THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT CURENTLY IN THE PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
BE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES CONTINUE
TO FORECAST GREATER DIGGING WITH UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND EAST ACROSS AREAS JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THE TREND OF THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED...BUT CURRENTLY THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW ON THE ECMWF STAYS NORTH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...SOME JET STREAK CIRRUS COULD OCCUR IF
THE GFS AND ECMWF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS VERIFY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE JET AXIS ALOFT.

THE ECMWF IS ALSO MORE AMPLIFIED WITH ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID-
LEVEL WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...THIS ONE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY. THE GFS IS DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF A SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE AND ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF...IF THERE IS ANY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY...THE THOUGHT IS IT WOULD BE MID-LEVEL DRIVEN
AND MOSTLY LIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL TREND A LITTLE MORE
PESSIMISTIC ON THE LAST DAY OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT KEEPING THE OVERALL FORECAST DRY.

AFTER HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS CHILLY 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES INTO THE 1340S...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW 40S OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MODEST WARMING FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK AT LEAST IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM TUESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z THIS MORNING... WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TO FOLLOW
BY LATE MORNING... WHICH WILL HOLD THROUGH 04Z (MIDNIGHT TONIGHT).
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE RESULTANT CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE LED TO LOW STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING. THESE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUOUS... WITH
AVIATION CONDITIONS PERIODICALLY SWINGING WILDLY BETWEEN LIFR AND
MVFR... MAKING THE TAFS CHALLENGING THIS MORNING. PILOTS SHOULD BE
PARTICULARLY ALERT FOR POSSIBLE VFR HOLES WITHIN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE... ANY CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND BEGIN TO
BREAK UP BY 15Z OR 16Z... WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT... WE EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW IFR OR LIFR FOG LATE IN THE TAF VALID
PERIOD... WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE (MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST)
MOSTLY UNDER 5 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z WED MORNING... SUB-VFR FOG EARLY WED MORNING
SHOULD MIX OUT BY 15Z. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRI... ALTHOUGH SHALLOW IFR GROUND FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE 08Z-13Z EACH MORNING THU AND FRI. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>077-083>086-088.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 300733
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

UPDATE: FOG HAS BECOME QUITE DENSE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS)... WARRANTING ISSUANCE OF A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM. VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
DURING THE 9AM-11AM TIME FRAME.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 222 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY... FIRST CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE DEGREE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THUS FAR. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS NOW HEADING EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST... WITH THE VEIL OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DEPARTING ALONG WITH IT. THE DAMP GROUND COMBINED
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT PATCHY/FLEETING NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS
(SEVERAL SITES HAVE BOUNCED AROUND BETWEEN 1/4 MI AND 5 MI IN FOG
THE LAST FEW HRS) GIVES US PAUSE AS TO THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE HRRR DEPICTS A FAIRLY SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORMING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE OBSERVED TRENDS. IF VSBYS DO DROP AND HOLD THERE FOR OVER AN
HOUR... THEY`RE LIKELY TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH MID MORNING... GIVEN THE
WEAK WIND FIELD THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET RESULTING IN
MINIMAL STIRRING/DISPERSION HORIZONTALLY OR VERTICALLY. WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MID MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. THEN... ONCE HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING HELPS TO DISPERSE
THE FOG/STRATUS... EXPECT A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY...
WITH FLAT AFTERNOON STRATOCU LIKELY TO STAY SCATTERED AT WORST. WITH
THICKNESSES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS... STILL LOOK FOR HIGHS WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80.

FOR TONIGHT: THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE NE WELL OFF THE SE
COAST WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SE TO MINIMIZE ANY IMPACT ON CENTRAL
NC. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HOLDS WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SPANNING THE AREA AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER PA/WV/VA... A REFLECTION OF THE CLIPPER MID LEVEL VORTEX NOW
OVER ERN MI THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MIDATLANTIC REGION REGION
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MODELS VARY IN THEIR IMPACTS ON
OUR WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE... WITH THE NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS IN TAKING A SLUG OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM... SO WILL RETAIN A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT... AND LATER FORECASTS CAN INCREASE THIS COVERAGE IF
LATER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE NAM. LOWS 57-60. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...

AS NOTED ABOVE... WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
MAINLY OVER THE EAST WED MORNING. THE PRESENCE OR LACK OF SUCH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH FOG FORMS WED MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG TO START THE DAY... AND PERHAPS MORE DENSE IF
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS DO NOT HAPPEN.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE CLIPPER LOW
WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND AS THE STRONG VORTICITY MAX ROUNDS ITS
BASE... SHIFTING OFF THE NJ COAST... AND WE SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE
FLAT DAYTIME CUMULUS FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE
LOW. MODELS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE... BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CLIPPER AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
COVERING THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS LATE WED/WED NIGHT.
WHILE MODELS SHOW A MINOR PERTURBATION TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WED NIGHT... THIS SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE
WITH DEEP DRY AIR MOVING IN. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH WED NIGHT.
THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO START WED ABOUT 10 M ABOVE NORMAL...
SUPPORTING HIGHS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL... 80-84. SOME
CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST WHERE MODELS
INDICATE AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATED BY
LIGHT BUT CONFLUENT AND UPSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOWS WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF 60. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...WITH THE AXIS
MOVING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO FORECAST
VERY MINOR QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH
THE GFS FORECASTING THIS THURSDAY AND THE NAM MORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS DOES HAVE A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF 850MB THETA-E AIR OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY WITH WEAK 850MB LIFT...BUT HEIGHTS
ALOFT ARE RISING AND ANY LOW-LEVEL FORCING WITH ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE WEAK. LIFTED INDICES ARE ABOVE 0C...AND MLCAPE IN THE
LOWEST KM DOES NOT REGISTER AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS APPEAR CAPPED. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES...POSSIBLY A SHOWER COULD DRIFT SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE
THERMAL WIND FROM HIGHER TERRAIN AND GET CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE IN SINGLE FIGURES
IN BOTH THE MAV AND THE MET. WITH AT LEAST A PARTLY SUNNY SKY
EXPECTED...1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST LOWER TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
NIGHT...LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE AND POSSIBLY ON THE HIGHER END OF THE
LOWER 60S TOWARD THE TRIAD AS THE WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE START TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF AN
ELONGATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY
00Z SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. ONE TREND
HAS BEEN FOR THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED...
WHICH...IF THE TREND CONTINUES...COULD SLOW THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. LAPSE RATES ON COARSE GFS
AND ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC AT BEST...SO
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. STILL...WITH WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE
INCREASING TO AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 30KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY STRONGER STORM COULD HAVE A GUSTY
WIND...THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT CURENTLY IN THE PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
BE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES CONTINUE
TO FORECAST GREATER DIGGING WITH UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND EAST ACROSS AREAS JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THE TREND OF THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED...BUT CURRENTLY THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW ON THE ECMWF STAYS NORTH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...SOME JET STREAK CIRRUS COULD OCCUR IF
THE GFS AND ECMWF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS VERIFY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE JET AXIS ALOFT.

THE ECMWF IS ALSO MORE AMPLIFIED WITH ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID-
LEVEL WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...THIS ONE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY. THE GFS IS DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF A SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE AND ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF...IF THERE IS ANY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY...THE THOUGHT IS IT WOULD BE MID-LEVEL DRIVEN
AND MOSTLY LIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL TREND A LITTLE MORE
PESSIMISTIC ON THE LAST DAY OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT KEEPING THE OVERALL FORECAST DRY.

AFTER HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS CHILLY 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES INTO THE 1340S...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW 40S OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MODEST WARMING FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK AT LEAST IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z THIS MORNING... WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TO FOLLOW
BY LATE MORNING... WHICH WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD (06Z WED). THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... TAKING WITH
IT THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS ANY THREAT OF ADDITIONAL PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN. THE CLEARING CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL FOSTER FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING. THESE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS HOWEVER WILL BE FLEETING... WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG NOT A
SOLID DECK BUT IN DISCONTINUOUS PATCHES... MAKING THE TAFS
CHALLENGING THIS MORNING. PILOTS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE VFR HOLES WITHIN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE... ANY CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP BY 15Z OR 16Z... WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE (MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST)
MOSTLY UNDER 5 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY WED MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRI... ALTHOUGH SHALLOW IFR GROUND FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE 08Z-13Z EACH MORNING WED THROUGH FRI. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM
EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>077.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 300733
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

UPDATE: FOG HAS BECOME QUITE DENSE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS)... WARRANTING ISSUANCE OF A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM. VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
DURING THE 9AM-11AM TIME FRAME.

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 222 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY... FIRST CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE DEGREE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THUS FAR. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS NOW HEADING EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST... WITH THE VEIL OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DEPARTING ALONG WITH IT. THE DAMP GROUND COMBINED
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT PATCHY/FLEETING NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS
(SEVERAL SITES HAVE BOUNCED AROUND BETWEEN 1/4 MI AND 5 MI IN FOG
THE LAST FEW HRS) GIVES US PAUSE AS TO THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE HRRR DEPICTS A FAIRLY SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORMING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE OBSERVED TRENDS. IF VSBYS DO DROP AND HOLD THERE FOR OVER AN
HOUR... THEY`RE LIKELY TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH MID MORNING... GIVEN THE
WEAK WIND FIELD THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET RESULTING IN
MINIMAL STIRRING/DISPERSION HORIZONTALLY OR VERTICALLY. WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MID MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. THEN... ONCE HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING HELPS TO DISPERSE
THE FOG/STRATUS... EXPECT A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY...
WITH FLAT AFTERNOON STRATOCU LIKELY TO STAY SCATTERED AT WORST. WITH
THICKNESSES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS... STILL LOOK FOR HIGHS WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80.

FOR TONIGHT: THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE NE WELL OFF THE SE
COAST WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SE TO MINIMIZE ANY IMPACT ON CENTRAL
NC. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HOLDS WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SPANNING THE AREA AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER PA/WV/VA... A REFLECTION OF THE CLIPPER MID LEVEL VORTEX NOW
OVER ERN MI THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MIDATLANTIC REGION REGION
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MODELS VARY IN THEIR IMPACTS ON
OUR WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE... WITH THE NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS IN TAKING A SLUG OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM... SO WILL RETAIN A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT... AND LATER FORECASTS CAN INCREASE THIS COVERAGE IF
LATER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE NAM. LOWS 57-60. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...

AS NOTED ABOVE... WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
MAINLY OVER THE EAST WED MORNING. THE PRESENCE OR LACK OF SUCH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH FOG FORMS WED MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG TO START THE DAY... AND PERHAPS MORE DENSE IF
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS DO NOT HAPPEN.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE CLIPPER LOW
WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND AS THE STRONG VORTICITY MAX ROUNDS ITS
BASE... SHIFTING OFF THE NJ COAST... AND WE SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE
FLAT DAYTIME CUMULUS FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE
LOW. MODELS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE... BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CLIPPER AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
COVERING THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS LATE WED/WED NIGHT.
WHILE MODELS SHOW A MINOR PERTURBATION TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WED NIGHT... THIS SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE
WITH DEEP DRY AIR MOVING IN. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH WED NIGHT.
THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO START WED ABOUT 10 M ABOVE NORMAL...
SUPPORTING HIGHS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL... 80-84. SOME
CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST WHERE MODELS
INDICATE AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATED BY
LIGHT BUT CONFLUENT AND UPSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOWS WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF 60. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...WITH THE AXIS
MOVING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO FORECAST
VERY MINOR QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH
THE GFS FORECASTING THIS THURSDAY AND THE NAM MORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS DOES HAVE A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF 850MB THETA-E AIR OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY WITH WEAK 850MB LIFT...BUT HEIGHTS
ALOFT ARE RISING AND ANY LOW-LEVEL FORCING WITH ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE WEAK. LIFTED INDICES ARE ABOVE 0C...AND MLCAPE IN THE
LOWEST KM DOES NOT REGISTER AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS APPEAR CAPPED. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES...POSSIBLY A SHOWER COULD DRIFT SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE
THERMAL WIND FROM HIGHER TERRAIN AND GET CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE IN SINGLE FIGURES
IN BOTH THE MAV AND THE MET. WITH AT LEAST A PARTLY SUNNY SKY
EXPECTED...1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST LOWER TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
NIGHT...LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE AND POSSIBLY ON THE HIGHER END OF THE
LOWER 60S TOWARD THE TRIAD AS THE WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE START TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF AN
ELONGATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY
00Z SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. ONE TREND
HAS BEEN FOR THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED...
WHICH...IF THE TREND CONTINUES...COULD SLOW THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. LAPSE RATES ON COARSE GFS
AND ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC AT BEST...SO
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. STILL...WITH WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE
INCREASING TO AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 30KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY STRONGER STORM COULD HAVE A GUSTY
WIND...THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT CURENTLY IN THE PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
BE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES CONTINUE
TO FORECAST GREATER DIGGING WITH UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND EAST ACROSS AREAS JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THE TREND OF THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED...BUT CURRENTLY THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW ON THE ECMWF STAYS NORTH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...SOME JET STREAK CIRRUS COULD OCCUR IF
THE GFS AND ECMWF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS VERIFY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE JET AXIS ALOFT.

THE ECMWF IS ALSO MORE AMPLIFIED WITH ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID-
LEVEL WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...THIS ONE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY. THE GFS IS DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF A SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE AND ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF...IF THERE IS ANY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY...THE THOUGHT IS IT WOULD BE MID-LEVEL DRIVEN
AND MOSTLY LIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL TREND A LITTLE MORE
PESSIMISTIC ON THE LAST DAY OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT KEEPING THE OVERALL FORECAST DRY.

AFTER HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS CHILLY 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES INTO THE 1340S...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW 40S OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MODEST WARMING FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK AT LEAST IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z THIS MORNING... WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TO FOLLOW
BY LATE MORNING... WHICH WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD (06Z WED). THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... TAKING WITH
IT THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS ANY THREAT OF ADDITIONAL PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN. THE CLEARING CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL FOSTER FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING. THESE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS HOWEVER WILL BE FLEETING... WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG NOT A
SOLID DECK BUT IN DISCONTINUOUS PATCHES... MAKING THE TAFS
CHALLENGING THIS MORNING. PILOTS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE VFR HOLES WITHIN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE... ANY CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP BY 15Z OR 16Z... WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE (MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST)
MOSTLY UNDER 5 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY WED MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRI... ALTHOUGH SHALLOW IFR GROUND FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE 08Z-13Z EACH MORNING WED THROUGH FRI. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM
EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>077.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 300700
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY... FIRST CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE DEGREE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THUS FAR. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS NOW HEADING EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST... WITH THE VEIL OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DEPARTING ALONG WITH IT. THE DAMP GROUND COMBINED
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT PATCHY/FLEETING NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS
(SEVERAL SITES HAVE BOUNCED AROUND BETWEEN 1/4 MI AND 5 MI IN FOG
THE LAST FEW HRS) GIVES US PAUSE AS TO THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE HRRR DEPICTS A FAIRLY SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORMING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE OBSERVED TRENDS. IF VSBYS DO DROP AND HOLD THERE FOR OVER AN
HOUR... THEY`RE LIKELY TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH MID MORNING... GIVEN THE
WEAK WIND FIELD THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET RESULTING IN
MINIMAL STIRRING/DISPERSION HORIZONTALLY OR VERTICALLY. WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MID MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. THEN... ONCE HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING HELPS TO DISPERSE
THE FOG/STRATUS... EXPECT A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY...
WITH FLAT AFTERNOON STRATOCU LIKELY TO STAY SCATTERED AT WORST. WITH
THICKNESSES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS... STILL LOOK FOR HIGHS WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80.

FOR TONIGHT: THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE NE WELL OFF THE SE
COAST WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SE TO MINIMIZE ANY IMPACT ON CENTRAL
NC. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HOLDS WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SPANNING THE AREA AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER PA/WV/VA... A REFLECTION OF THE CLIPPER MID LEVEL VORTEX NOW
OVER ERN MI THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MIDATLANTIC REGION REGION
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MODELS VARY IN THEIR IMPACTS ON
OUR WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE... WITH THE NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS IN TAKING A SLUG OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM... SO WILL RETAIN A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT... AND LATER FORECASTS CAN INCREASE THIS COVERAGE IF
LATER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE NAM. LOWS 57-60. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...

AS NOTED ABOVE... WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
MAINLY OVER THE EAST WED MORNING. THE PRESENCE OR LACK OF SUCH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH FOG FORMS WED MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG TO START THE DAY... AND PERHAPS MORE DENSE IF
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS DO NOT HAPPEN.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE CLIPPER LOW
WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND AS THE STRONG VORTICITY MAX ROUNDS ITS
BASE... SHIFTING OFF THE NJ COAST... AND WE SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE
FLAT DAYTIME CUMULUS FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE
LOW. MODELS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE... BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CLIPPER AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
COVERING THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS LATE WED/WED NIGHT.
WHILE MODELS SHOW A MINOR PERTURBATION TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WED NIGHT... THIS SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE
WITH DEEP DRY AIR MOVING IN. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH WED NIGHT.
THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO START WED ABOUT 10 M ABOVE NORMAL...
SUPPORTING HIGHS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL... 80-84. SOME
CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST WHERE MODELS
INDICATE AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATED BY
LIGHT BUT CONFLUENT AND UPSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOWS WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF 60. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...WITH THE AXIS
MOVING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO FORECAST
VERY MINOR QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH
THE GFS FORECASTING THIS THURSDAY AND THE NAM MORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS DOES HAVE A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF 850MB THETA-E AIR OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY WITH WEAK 850MB LIFT...BUT HEIGHTS
ALOFT ARE RISING AND ANY LOW-LEVEL FORCING WITH ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE WEAK. LIFTED INDICES ARE ABOVE 0C...AND MLCAPE IN THE
LOWEST KM DOES NOT REGISTER AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS APPEAR CAPPED. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES...POSSIBLY A SHOWER COULD DRIFT SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE
THERMAL WIND FROM HIGHER TERRAIN AND GET CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE IN SINGLE FIGURES
IN BOTH THE MAV AND THE MET. WITH AT LEAST A PARTLY SUNNY SKY
EXPECTED...1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST LOWER TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
NIGHT...LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE AND POSSIBLY ON THE HIGHER END OF THE
LOWER 60S TOWARD THE TRIAD AS THE WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE START TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF AN
ELONGATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY
00Z SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. ONE TREND
HAS BEEN FOR THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED...
WHICH...IF THE TREND CONTINUES...COULD SLOW THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. LAPSE RATES ON COARSE GFS
AND ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC AT BEST...SO
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. STILL...WITH WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE
INCREASING TO AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 30KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY STRONGER STORM COULD HAVE A GUSTY
WIND...THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT CURENTLY IN THE PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
BE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES CONTINUE
TO FORECAST GREATER DIGGING WITH UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND EAST ACROSS AREAS JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THE TREND OF THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED...BUT CURRENTLY THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW ON THE ECMWF STAYS NORTH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...SOME JET STREAK CIRRUS COULD OCCUR IF
THE GFS AND ECMWF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS VERIFY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE JET AXIS ALOFT.

THE ECMWF IS ALSO MORE AMPLIFIED WITH ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID-
LEVEL WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...THIS ONE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY. THE GFS IS DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF A SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE AND ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF...IF THERE IS ANY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY...THE THOUGHT IS IT WOULD BE MID-LEVEL DRIVEN
AND MOSTLY LIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL TREND A LITTLE MORE
PESSIMISTIC ON THE LAST DAY OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT KEEPING THE OVERALL FORECAST DRY.

AFTER HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS CHILLY 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES INTO THE 1340S...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW 40S OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MODEST WARMING FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK AT LEAST IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z THIS MORNING... WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TO FOLLOW
BY LATE MORNING... WHICH WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD (06Z WED). THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... TAKING WITH
IT THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS ANY THREAT OF ADDITIONAL PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN. THE CLEARING CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL FOSTER FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING. THESE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS HOWEVER WILL BE FLEETING... WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG NOT A
SOLID DECK BUT IN DISCONTINUOUS PATCHES... MAKING THE TAFS
CHALLENGING THIS MORNING. PILOTS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE VFR HOLES WITHIN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE... ANY CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP BY 15Z OR 16Z... WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE (MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST)
MOSTLY UNDER 5 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY WED MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRI... ALTHOUGH SHALLOW IFR GROUND FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE 08Z-13Z EACH MORNING WED THROUGH FRI. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 300700
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY... FIRST CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE DEGREE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THUS FAR. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS NOW HEADING EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST... WITH THE VEIL OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DEPARTING ALONG WITH IT. THE DAMP GROUND COMBINED
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT PATCHY/FLEETING NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS
(SEVERAL SITES HAVE BOUNCED AROUND BETWEEN 1/4 MI AND 5 MI IN FOG
THE LAST FEW HRS) GIVES US PAUSE AS TO THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE HRRR DEPICTS A FAIRLY SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORMING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE OBSERVED TRENDS. IF VSBYS DO DROP AND HOLD THERE FOR OVER AN
HOUR... THEY`RE LIKELY TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH MID MORNING... GIVEN THE
WEAK WIND FIELD THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET RESULTING IN
MINIMAL STIRRING/DISPERSION HORIZONTALLY OR VERTICALLY. WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MID MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. THEN... ONCE HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING HELPS TO DISPERSE
THE FOG/STRATUS... EXPECT A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY...
WITH FLAT AFTERNOON STRATOCU LIKELY TO STAY SCATTERED AT WORST. WITH
THICKNESSES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS... STILL LOOK FOR HIGHS WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80.

FOR TONIGHT: THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE NE WELL OFF THE SE
COAST WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SE TO MINIMIZE ANY IMPACT ON CENTRAL
NC. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HOLDS WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SPANNING THE AREA AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER PA/WV/VA... A REFLECTION OF THE CLIPPER MID LEVEL VORTEX NOW
OVER ERN MI THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MIDATLANTIC REGION REGION
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MODELS VARY IN THEIR IMPACTS ON
OUR WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE... WITH THE NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS IN TAKING A SLUG OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM... SO WILL RETAIN A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT... AND LATER FORECASTS CAN INCREASE THIS COVERAGE IF
LATER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE NAM. LOWS 57-60. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...

AS NOTED ABOVE... WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
MAINLY OVER THE EAST WED MORNING. THE PRESENCE OR LACK OF SUCH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH FOG FORMS WED MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG TO START THE DAY... AND PERHAPS MORE DENSE IF
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS DO NOT HAPPEN.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE CLIPPER LOW
WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND AS THE STRONG VORTICITY MAX ROUNDS ITS
BASE... SHIFTING OFF THE NJ COAST... AND WE SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE
FLAT DAYTIME CUMULUS FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE
LOW. MODELS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE... BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CLIPPER AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
COVERING THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS LATE WED/WED NIGHT.
WHILE MODELS SHOW A MINOR PERTURBATION TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WED NIGHT... THIS SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE
WITH DEEP DRY AIR MOVING IN. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH WED NIGHT.
THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO START WED ABOUT 10 M ABOVE NORMAL...
SUPPORTING HIGHS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL... 80-84. SOME
CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST WHERE MODELS
INDICATE AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATED BY
LIGHT BUT CONFLUENT AND UPSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOWS WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF 60. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY...WITH THE AXIS
MOVING EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO FORECAST
VERY MINOR QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH
THE GFS FORECASTING THIS THURSDAY AND THE NAM MORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS DOES HAVE A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF 850MB THETA-E AIR OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY WITH WEAK 850MB LIFT...BUT HEIGHTS
ALOFT ARE RISING AND ANY LOW-LEVEL FORCING WITH ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE WEAK. LIFTED INDICES ARE ABOVE 0C...AND MLCAPE IN THE
LOWEST KM DOES NOT REGISTER AS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS APPEAR CAPPED. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES...POSSIBLY A SHOWER COULD DRIFT SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE
THERMAL WIND FROM HIGHER TERRAIN AND GET CLOSE TO THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE IN SINGLE FIGURES
IN BOTH THE MAV AND THE MET. WITH AT LEAST A PARTLY SUNNY SKY
EXPECTED...1000-850MB THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST LOWER TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
NIGHT...LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE AND POSSIBLY ON THE HIGHER END OF THE
LOWER 60S TOWARD THE TRIAD AS THE WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE START TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF AN
ELONGATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY
00Z SATURDAY AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. ONE TREND
HAS BEEN FOR THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED...
WHICH...IF THE TREND CONTINUES...COULD SLOW THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. LAPSE RATES ON COARSE GFS
AND ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC AT BEST...SO
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. STILL...WITH WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE
INCREASING TO AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE 30KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY STRONGER STORM COULD HAVE A GUSTY
WIND...THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT CURENTLY IN THE PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
BE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH THE ECMWF DOES CONTINUE
TO FORECAST GREATER DIGGING WITH UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND EAST ACROSS AREAS JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THE TREND OF THIS WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED...BUT CURRENTLY THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW ON THE ECMWF STAYS NORTH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY
OR SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...SOME JET STREAK CIRRUS COULD OCCUR IF
THE GFS AND ECMWF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS VERIFY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE JET AXIS ALOFT.

THE ECMWF IS ALSO MORE AMPLIFIED WITH ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MID-
LEVEL WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...THIS ONE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY. THE GFS IS DRY WITH LITTLE FORCING...
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF A SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE AND ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF...IF THERE IS ANY
PRECIPITATION MONDAY...THE THOUGHT IS IT WOULD BE MID-LEVEL DRIVEN
AND MOSTLY LIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL TREND A LITTLE MORE
PESSIMISTIC ON THE LAST DAY OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...INCREASING
CLOUDS BUT KEEPING THE OVERALL FORECAST DRY.

AFTER HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS CHILLY 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES INTO THE 1340S...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW 40S OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MODEST WARMING FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK AT LEAST IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z THIS MORNING... WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TO FOLLOW
BY LATE MORNING... WHICH WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD (06Z WED). THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... TAKING WITH
IT THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS ANY THREAT OF ADDITIONAL PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN. THE CLEARING CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL FOSTER FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING. THESE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS HOWEVER WILL BE FLEETING... WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG NOT A
SOLID DECK BUT IN DISCONTINUOUS PATCHES... MAKING THE TAFS
CHALLENGING THIS MORNING. PILOTS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE VFR HOLES WITHIN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE... ANY CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP BY 15Z OR 16Z... WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE (MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST)
MOSTLY UNDER 5 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY WED MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRI... ALTHOUGH SHALLOW IFR GROUND FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE 08Z-13Z EACH MORNING WED THROUGH FRI. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 300644
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY... FIRST CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE DEGREE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THUS FAR. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS NOW HEADING EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST... WITH THE VEIL OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DEPARTING ALONG WITH IT. THE DAMP GROUND COMBINED
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT PATCHY/FLEETING NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS
(SEVERAL SITES HAVE BOUNCED AROUND BETWEEN 1/4 MI AND 5 MI IN FOG
THE LAST FEW HRS) GIVES US PAUSE AS TO THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE HRRR DEPICTS A FAIRLY SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORMING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE OBSERVED TRENDS. IF VSBYS DO DROP AND HOLD THERE FOR OVER AN
HOUR... THEY`RE LIKELY TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH MID MORNING... GIVEN THE
WEAK WIND FIELD THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET RESULTING IN
MINIMAL STIRRING/DISPERSION HORIZONTALLY OR VERTICALLY. WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MID MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. THEN... ONCE HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING HELPS TO DISPERSE
THE FOG/STRATUS... EXPECT A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY...
WITH FLAT AFTERNOON STRATOCU LIKELY TO STAY SCATTERED AT WORST. WITH
THICKNESSES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS... STILL LOOK FOR HIGHS WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80.

FOR TONIGHT: THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE NE WELL OFF THE SE
COAST WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SE TO MINIMIZE ANY IMPACT ON CENTRAL
NC. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HOLDS WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SPANNING THE AREA AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER PA/WV/VA... A REFLECTION OF THE CLIPPER MID LEVEL VORTEX NOW
OVER ERN MI THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MIDATLANTIC REGION REGION
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MODELS VARY IN THEIR IMPACTS ON
OUR WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE... WITH THE NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS IN TAKING A SLUG OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM... SO WILL RETAIN A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT... AND LATER FORECASTS CAN INCREASE THIS COVERAGE IF
LATER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE NAM. LOWS 57-60. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...

AS NOTED ABOVE... WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
MAINLY OVER THE EAST WED MORNING. THE PRESENCE OR LACK OF SUCH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH FOG FORMS WED MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG TO START THE DAY... AND PERHAPS MORE DENSE IF
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS DO NOT HAPPEN.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE CLIPPER LOW
WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND AS THE STRONG VORTICITY MAX ROUNDS ITS
BASE... SHIFTING OFF THE NJ COAST... AND WE SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE
FLAT DAYTIME CUMULUS FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE
LOW. MODELS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE... BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CLIPPER AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
COVERING THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS LATE WED/WED NIGHT.
WHILE MODELS SHOW A MINOR PERTURBATION TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WED NIGHT... THIS SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE
WITH DEEP DRY AIR MOVING IN. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH WED NIGHT.
THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO START WED ABOUT 10 M ABOVE NORMAL...
SUPPORTING HIGHS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL... 80-84. SOME
CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST WHERE MODELS
INDICATE AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATED BY
LIGHT BUT CONFLUENT AND UPSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOWS WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF 60. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE...ALONG WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT...SET UP OVER THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE FAIRLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SUGGEST SOME AFTERNOON SHALLOW CU BENEATH
THE MID-LEVEL INVERSION. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AROUND 1395 SUGGESTS
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL... HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND
60.

THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER FOR US WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT`S NOW
PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE LATE ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING AHEAD OF IT THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
RAPID MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY AS SW FLOW IN THE BL INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE END
RESULT NOWS LOOKS LIKE A BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC PERHAPS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. AS FOR INTENSITY...MOST OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE OF SHOWER VARIETY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME SKINNY CAPE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...
BUT MORE NOTABLY 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON INSTABILITY TRENDS WITH FUTURE MODELS RUNS. OF COURSE THE
TIMING OF THIS WILL BE FINE-TUNED AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER...SO IF
YOU HAVE OUTDOOR EVENTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING...YOU`LL
DEFINITELY WANT TO CHECK BACK LATER THIS WEEK FOR AN UPDATE.

NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH A COOLING AND DRYING TREND IN ITS WAKE FOR THIS
WEEKEND. A LITTLE BREEZY ON SATURDAY IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AS
THE HIGH`S BUILDING IN...BUT OVERALL SHOULD SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO - OR PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW- NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z THIS MORNING... WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TO FOLLOW
BY LATE MORNING... WHICH WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD (06Z WED). THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... TAKING WITH
IT THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS ANY THREAT OF ADDITIONAL PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN. THE CLEARING CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL FOSTER FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING. THESE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS HOWEVER WILL BE FLEETING... WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG NOT A
SOLID DECK BUT IN DISCONTINUOUS PATCHES... MAKING THE TAFS
CHALLENGING THIS MORNING. PILOTS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE VFR HOLES WITHIN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE... ANY CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP BY 15Z OR 16Z... WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE (MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST)
MOSTLY UNDER 5 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY WED MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRI... ALTHOUGH SHALLOW IFR GROUND FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE 08Z-13Z EACH MORNING WED THROUGH FRI. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 300644
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY... FIRST CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE DEGREE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THUS FAR. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS NOW HEADING EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST... WITH THE VEIL OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DEPARTING ALONG WITH IT. THE DAMP GROUND COMBINED
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT PATCHY/FLEETING NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS
(SEVERAL SITES HAVE BOUNCED AROUND BETWEEN 1/4 MI AND 5 MI IN FOG
THE LAST FEW HRS) GIVES US PAUSE AS TO THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE HRRR DEPICTS A FAIRLY SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORMING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE OBSERVED TRENDS. IF VSBYS DO DROP AND HOLD THERE FOR OVER AN
HOUR... THEY`RE LIKELY TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH MID MORNING... GIVEN THE
WEAK WIND FIELD THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET RESULTING IN
MINIMAL STIRRING/DISPERSION HORIZONTALLY OR VERTICALLY. WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MID MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. THEN... ONCE HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING HELPS TO DISPERSE
THE FOG/STRATUS... EXPECT A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY...
WITH FLAT AFTERNOON STRATOCU LIKELY TO STAY SCATTERED AT WORST. WITH
THICKNESSES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS... STILL LOOK FOR HIGHS WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80.

FOR TONIGHT: THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE NE WELL OFF THE SE
COAST WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SE TO MINIMIZE ANY IMPACT ON CENTRAL
NC. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HOLDS WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SPANNING THE AREA AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER PA/WV/VA... A REFLECTION OF THE CLIPPER MID LEVEL VORTEX NOW
OVER ERN MI THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MIDATLANTIC REGION REGION
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MODELS VARY IN THEIR IMPACTS ON
OUR WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE... WITH THE NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS IN TAKING A SLUG OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM... SO WILL RETAIN A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT... AND LATER FORECASTS CAN INCREASE THIS COVERAGE IF
LATER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE NAM. LOWS 57-60. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...

AS NOTED ABOVE... WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
MAINLY OVER THE EAST WED MORNING. THE PRESENCE OR LACK OF SUCH
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH FOG FORMS WED MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG TO START THE DAY... AND PERHAPS MORE DENSE IF
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER-ASSOCIATED CLOUDS DO NOT HAPPEN.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE CLIPPER LOW
WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND AS THE STRONG VORTICITY MAX ROUNDS ITS
BASE... SHIFTING OFF THE NJ COAST... AND WE SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE
FLAT DAYTIME CUMULUS FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE
LOW. MODELS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
LATE... BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CLIPPER AND A DEEPENING TROUGH
COVERING THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS LATE WED/WED NIGHT.
WHILE MODELS SHOW A MINOR PERTURBATION TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WED NIGHT... THIS SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE
WITH DEEP DRY AIR MOVING IN. EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH WED NIGHT.
THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO START WED ABOUT 10 M ABOVE NORMAL...
SUPPORTING HIGHS ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL... 80-84. SOME
CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST WHERE MODELS
INDICATE AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT GENERATED BY
LIGHT BUT CONFLUENT AND UPSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOWS WITHIN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF 60. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE...ALONG WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT...SET UP OVER THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE FAIRLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SUGGEST SOME AFTERNOON SHALLOW CU BENEATH
THE MID-LEVEL INVERSION. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AROUND 1395 SUGGESTS
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL... HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND
60.

THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER FOR US WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT`S NOW
PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE LATE ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING AHEAD OF IT THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
RAPID MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY AS SW FLOW IN THE BL INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE END
RESULT NOWS LOOKS LIKE A BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC PERHAPS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. AS FOR INTENSITY...MOST OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE OF SHOWER VARIETY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME SKINNY CAPE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...
BUT MORE NOTABLY 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON INSTABILITY TRENDS WITH FUTURE MODELS RUNS. OF COURSE THE
TIMING OF THIS WILL BE FINE-TUNED AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER...SO IF
YOU HAVE OUTDOOR EVENTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING...YOU`LL
DEFINITELY WANT TO CHECK BACK LATER THIS WEEK FOR AN UPDATE.

NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH A COOLING AND DRYING TREND IN ITS WAKE FOR THIS
WEEKEND. A LITTLE BREEZY ON SATURDAY IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AS
THE HIGH`S BUILDING IN...BUT OVERALL SHOULD SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO - OR PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW- NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z THIS MORNING... WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TO FOLLOW
BY LATE MORNING... WHICH WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD (06Z WED). THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... TAKING WITH
IT THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS ANY THREAT OF ADDITIONAL PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN. THE CLEARING CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL FOSTER FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING. THESE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS HOWEVER WILL BE FLEETING... WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG NOT A
SOLID DECK BUT IN DISCONTINUOUS PATCHES... MAKING THE TAFS
CHALLENGING THIS MORNING. PILOTS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE VFR HOLES WITHIN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE... ANY CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP BY 15Z OR 16Z... WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE (MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST)
MOSTLY UNDER 5 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY WED MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRI... ALTHOUGH SHALLOW IFR GROUND FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE 08Z-13Z EACH MORNING WED THROUGH FRI. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 300623
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
222 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY... FIRST CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE DEGREE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THUS FAR. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS NOW HEADING EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST... WITH THE VEIL OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DEPARTING ALONG WITH IT. THE DAMP GROUND COMBINED
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT PATCHY/FLEETING NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS
(SEVERAL SITES HAVE BOUNCED AROUND BETWEEN 1/4 MI AND 5 MI IN FOG
THE LAST FEW HRS) GIVES US PAUSE AS TO THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE HRRR DEPICTS A FAIRLY SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORMING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE OBSERVED TRENDS. IF VSBYS DO DROP AND HOLD THERE FOR OVER AN
HOUR... THEY`RE LIKELY TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH MID MORNING... GIVEN THE
WEAK WIND FIELD THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET RESULTING IN
MINIMAL STIRRING/DISPERSION HORIZONTALLY OR VERTICALLY. WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MID MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. THEN... ONCE HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING HELPS TO DISPERSE
THE FOG/STRATUS... EXPECT A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY...
WITH FLAT AFTERNOON STRATOCU LIKELY TO STAY SCATTERED AT WORST. WITH
THICKNESSES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS... STILL LOOK FOR HIGHS WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80.

FOR TONIGHT: THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE NE WELL OFF THE SE
COAST WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SE TO MINIMIZE ANY IMPACT ON CENTRAL
NC. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HOLDS WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SPANNING THE AREA AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER PA/WV/VA... A REFLECTION OF THE CLIPPER MID LEVEL VORTEX NOW
OVER ERN MI THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MIDATLANTIC REGION REGION
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MODELS VARY IN THEIR IMPACTS ON
OUR WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE... WITH THE NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS IN TAKING A SLUG OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM... SO WILL RETAIN A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT... AND LATER FORECASTS CAN INCREASE THIS COVERAGE IF
LATER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE NAM. LOWS 57-60. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...

TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE...ALONG WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT...SET UP OVER THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE FAIRLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SUGGEST SOME AFTERNOON SHALLOW CU BENEATH
THE MID-LEVEL INVERSION. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AROUND 1395 SUGGESTS
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL... HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND
60.

THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER FOR US WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT`S NOW
PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE LATE ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING AHEAD OF IT THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
RAPID MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY AS SW FLOW IN THE BL INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE END
RESULT NOWS LOOKS LIKE A BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC PERHAPS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. AS FOR INTENSITY...MOST OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE OF SHOWER VARIETY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME SKINNY CAPE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...
BUT MORE NOTABLY 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON INSTABILITY TRENDS WITH FUTURE MODELS RUNS. OF COURSE THE
TIMING OF THIS WILL BE FINE-TUNED AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER...SO IF
YOU HAVE OUTDOOR EVENTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING...YOU`LL
DEFINITELY WANT TO CHECK BACK LATER THIS WEEK FOR AN UPDATE.

NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH A COOLING AND DRYING TREND IN ITS WAKE FOR THIS
WEEKEND. A LITTLE BREEZY ON SATURDAY IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AS
THE HIGH`S BUILDING IN...BUT OVERALL SHOULD SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO - OR PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW- NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z THIS MORNING... WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TO FOLLOW
BY LATE MORNING... WHICH WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD (06Z WED). THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... TAKING WITH
IT THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS ANY THREAT OF ADDITIONAL PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN. THE CLEARING CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL FOSTER FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING. THESE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS HOWEVER WILL BE FLEETING... WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG NOT A
SOLID DECK BUT IN DISCONTINUOUS PATCHES... MAKING THE TAFS
CHALLENGING THIS MORNING. PILOTS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE VFR HOLES WITHIN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE... ANY CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP BY 15Z OR 16Z... WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE (MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST)
MOSTLY UNDER 5 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY WED MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRI... ALTHOUGH SHALLOW IFR GROUND FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE 08Z-13Z EACH MORNING WED THROUGH FRI. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 300623
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
222 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY... FIRST CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS THE DEGREE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THUS FAR. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS NOW HEADING EAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST... WITH THE VEIL OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS DEPARTING ALONG WITH IT. THE DAMP GROUND COMBINED
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT PATCHY/FLEETING NATURE OF THESE CONDITIONS
(SEVERAL SITES HAVE BOUNCED AROUND BETWEEN 1/4 MI AND 5 MI IN FOG
THE LAST FEW HRS) GIVES US PAUSE AS TO THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE HRRR DEPICTS A FAIRLY SOLID DECK OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
FORMING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE OBSERVED TRENDS. IF VSBYS DO DROP AND HOLD THERE FOR OVER AN
HOUR... THEY`RE LIKELY TO HOLD FIRM THROUGH MID MORNING... GIVEN THE
WEAK WIND FIELD THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET RESULTING IN
MINIMAL STIRRING/DISPERSION HORIZONTALLY OR VERTICALLY. WILL KEEP
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MID MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. THEN... ONCE HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING HELPS TO DISPERSE
THE FOG/STRATUS... EXPECT A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY...
WITH FLAT AFTERNOON STRATOCU LIKELY TO STAY SCATTERED AT WORST. WITH
THICKNESSES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS... STILL LOOK FOR HIGHS WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80.

FOR TONIGHT: THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE NE WELL OFF THE SE
COAST WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR SE TO MINIMIZE ANY IMPACT ON CENTRAL
NC. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HOLDS WITH A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SPANNING THE AREA AND A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH
OVER PA/WV/VA... A REFLECTION OF THE CLIPPER MID LEVEL VORTEX NOW
OVER ERN MI THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MIDATLANTIC REGION REGION
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. MODELS VARY IN THEIR IMPACTS ON
OUR WEATHER WITH THIS FEATURE... WITH THE NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS IN TAKING A SLUG OF 850-700 MB MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM... SO WILL RETAIN A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT... AND LATER FORECASTS CAN INCREASE THIS COVERAGE IF
LATER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE NAM. LOWS 57-60. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...

TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE...ALONG WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT...SET UP OVER THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE FAIRLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SUGGEST SOME AFTERNOON SHALLOW CU BENEATH
THE MID-LEVEL INVERSION. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AROUND 1395 SUGGESTS
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL... HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND
60.

THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER FOR US WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT`S NOW
PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE LATE ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING AHEAD OF IT THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
RAPID MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY AS SW FLOW IN THE BL INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE END
RESULT NOWS LOOKS LIKE A BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC PERHAPS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. AS FOR INTENSITY...MOST OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE OF SHOWER VARIETY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME SKINNY CAPE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...
BUT MORE NOTABLY 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON INSTABILITY TRENDS WITH FUTURE MODELS RUNS. OF COURSE THE
TIMING OF THIS WILL BE FINE-TUNED AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER...SO IF
YOU HAVE OUTDOOR EVENTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING...YOU`LL
DEFINITELY WANT TO CHECK BACK LATER THIS WEEK FOR AN UPDATE.

NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH A COOLING AND DRYING TREND IN ITS WAKE FOR THIS
WEEKEND. A LITTLE BREEZY ON SATURDAY IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AS
THE HIGH`S BUILDING IN...BUT OVERALL SHOULD SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO - OR PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW- NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z THIS MORNING... WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TO FOLLOW
BY LATE MORNING... WHICH WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD (06Z WED). THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... TAKING WITH
IT THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS ANY THREAT OF ADDITIONAL PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN. THE CLEARING CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL FOSTER FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING. THESE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS HOWEVER WILL BE FLEETING... WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG NOT A
SOLID DECK BUT IN DISCONTINUOUS PATCHES... MAKING THE TAFS
CHALLENGING THIS MORNING. PILOTS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE VFR HOLES WITHIN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE... ANY CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP BY 15Z OR 16Z... WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE (MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST)
MOSTLY UNDER 5 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY WED MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRI... ALTHOUGH SHALLOW IFR GROUND FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE 08Z-13Z EACH MORNING WED THROUGH FRI. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 300438
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA OVERNIGHT... AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...

A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT...WHILE AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE GULF COAST. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST...THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE COMMENCES
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
FOG. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN HIGH (DEWPOINT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S) AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...WINDS
WILL BE MOSTLY CALM. SOME CLEARING IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE WEST AND
IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST. IN ADDITION... MOST LOCATIONS SAW AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIP TODAY. THEREFORE...PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO
THE FORECAST...WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT ENOUGH). OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...

WITH A MOIST/STAGNANT SURFACE AIRMASS IN PLACE...CLEARING ASSOC/W
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG AND/OR OVERCAST LOW CEILINGS BY
07-10Z TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION OR
MIXING...FOG AND/OR LOW CEILINGS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO LIFT AND
COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS DIURNAL HEATING/BUOYANT MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
CLOUD COVER TO LIFT/SCATTER BY ~15Z...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER
70S TO 80-81F. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
THE MASON DIXON LINE TUE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING (AND ANY
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION) ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...THOUGH A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER
WILL BE POSSIBLE ~06Z WED IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE...ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT...SET UP OVER THE
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SUGGEST SOME
AFTERNOON SHALLOW CU BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL INVERSION. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS AROUND 1395 SUGGESTS HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND 60.

THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER FOR US WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT`S NOW
PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE LATE ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING AHEAD OF IT THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
RAPID MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY AS SW FLOW IN THE BL INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE END
RESULT NOWS LOOKS LIKE A BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC PERHAPS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. AS FOR INTENSITY...MOST OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE OF SHOWER VARIETY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME SKINNY CAPE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...
BUT MORE NOTABLY 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON INSTABILITY TRENDS WITH FUTURE MODELS RUNS. OF COURSE THE
TIMING OF THIS WILL BE FINE-TUNED AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER...SO IF
YOU HAVE OUTDOOR EVENTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING...YOU`LL
DEFINITELY WANT TO CHECK BACK LATER THIS WEEK FOR AN UPDATE.

NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH A COOLING AND DRYING TREND IN ITS WAKE FOR THIS
WEEKEND. A LITTLE BREEZY ON SATURDAY IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AS
THE HIGH`S BUILDING IN...BUT OVERALL SHOULD SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO - OR PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW- NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z THIS MORNING... WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TO FOLLOW
BY LATE MORNING... WHICH WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD (06Z WED). THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... TAKING WITH
IT THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS ANY THREAT OF ADDITIONAL PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN. THE CLEARING CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL FOSTER FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING. THESE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS HOWEVER WILL BE FLEETING... WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG NOT A
SOLID DECK BUT IN DISCONTINUOUS PATCHES... MAKING THE TAFS
CHALLENGING THIS MORNING. PILOTS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE VFR HOLES WITHIN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE... ANY CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP BY 15Z OR 16Z... WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE (MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST)
MOSTLY UNDER 5 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY WED MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRI... ALTHOUGH SHALLOW IFR GROUND FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE 08Z-13Z EACH MORNING WED THROUGH FRI. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 300438
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA OVERNIGHT... AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...

A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT...WHILE AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE GULF COAST. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST...THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE COMMENCES
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
FOG. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN HIGH (DEWPOINT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S) AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...WINDS
WILL BE MOSTLY CALM. SOME CLEARING IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE WEST AND
IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST. IN ADDITION... MOST LOCATIONS SAW AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIP TODAY. THEREFORE...PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO
THE FORECAST...WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT ENOUGH). OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...

WITH A MOIST/STAGNANT SURFACE AIRMASS IN PLACE...CLEARING ASSOC/W
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG AND/OR OVERCAST LOW CEILINGS BY
07-10Z TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION OR
MIXING...FOG AND/OR LOW CEILINGS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO LIFT AND
COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS DIURNAL HEATING/BUOYANT MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
CLOUD COVER TO LIFT/SCATTER BY ~15Z...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER
70S TO 80-81F. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
THE MASON DIXON LINE TUE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING (AND ANY
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION) ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...THOUGH A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER
WILL BE POSSIBLE ~06Z WED IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE...ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT...SET UP OVER THE
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SUGGEST SOME
AFTERNOON SHALLOW CU BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL INVERSION. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS AROUND 1395 SUGGESTS HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND 60.

THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER FOR US WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT`S NOW
PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE LATE ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING AHEAD OF IT THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
RAPID MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY AS SW FLOW IN THE BL INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE END
RESULT NOWS LOOKS LIKE A BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC PERHAPS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. AS FOR INTENSITY...MOST OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE OF SHOWER VARIETY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME SKINNY CAPE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...
BUT MORE NOTABLY 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON INSTABILITY TRENDS WITH FUTURE MODELS RUNS. OF COURSE THE
TIMING OF THIS WILL BE FINE-TUNED AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER...SO IF
YOU HAVE OUTDOOR EVENTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING...YOU`LL
DEFINITELY WANT TO CHECK BACK LATER THIS WEEK FOR AN UPDATE.

NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH A COOLING AND DRYING TREND IN ITS WAKE FOR THIS
WEEKEND. A LITTLE BREEZY ON SATURDAY IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AS
THE HIGH`S BUILDING IN...BUT OVERALL SHOULD SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO - OR PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW- NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH 14Z OR 15Z THIS MORNING... WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TO FOLLOW
BY LATE MORNING... WHICH WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD (06Z WED). THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS MORNING... TAKING WITH
IT THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS ANY THREAT OF ADDITIONAL PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN. THE CLEARING CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL FOSTER FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING. THESE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS HOWEVER WILL BE FLEETING... WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG NOT A
SOLID DECK BUT IN DISCONTINUOUS PATCHES... MAKING THE TAFS
CHALLENGING THIS MORNING. PILOTS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE VFR HOLES WITHIN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE... ANY CIGS SHOULD BREAK UP BY 15Z OR 16Z... WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE (MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST)
MOSTLY UNDER 5 KTS TODAY/TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY WED MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRI... ALTHOUGH SHALLOW IFR GROUND FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE
AREAWIDE 08Z-13Z EACH MORNING WED THROUGH FRI. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 300222
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1022 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...

A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT...WHILE AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE GULF COAST. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST...THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE COMMENCES
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
FOG. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN HIGH (DEWPOINT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S) AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...WINDS
WILL BE MOSTLY CALM. SOME CLEARING IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE WEST AND
IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST. IN ADDITION... MOST LOCATIONS SAW AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIP TODAY. THEREFORE...PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO
THE FORECAST...WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT ENOUGH). OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...

WITH A MOIST/STAGNANT SURFACE AIRMASS IN PLACE...CLEARING ASSOC/W
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG AND/OR OVERCAST LOW CEILINGS BY
07-10Z TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION OR
MIXING...FOG AND/OR LOW CEILINGS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO LIFT AND
COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS DIURNAL HEATING/BUOYANT MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
CLOUD COVER TO LIFT/SCATTER BY ~15Z...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER
70S TO 80-81F. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
THE MASON DIXON LINE TUE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING (AND ANY
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION) ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...THOUGH A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER
WILL BE POSSIBLE ~06Z WED IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE...ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT...SET UP OVER THE
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SUGGEST SOME
AFTERNOON SHALLOW CU BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL INVERSION. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS AROUND 1395 SUGGESTS HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND 60.

THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER FOR US WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT`S NOW
PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE LATE ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING AHEAD OF IT THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
RAPID MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY AS SW FLOW IN THE BL INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE END
RESULT NOWS LOOKS LIKE A BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC PERHAPS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. AS FOR INTENSITY...MOST OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE OF SHOWER VARIETY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME SKINNY CAPE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...
BUT MORE NOTABLY 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON INSTABILITY TRENDS WITH FUTURE MODELS RUNS. OF COURSE THE
TIMING OF THIS WILL BE FINE-TUNED AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER...SO IF
YOU HAVE OUTDOOR EVENTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING...YOU`LL
DEFINITELY WANT TO CHECK BACK LATER THIS WEEK FOR AN UPDATE.

NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH A COOLING AND DRYING TREND IN ITS WAKE FOR THIS
WEEKEND. A LITTLE BREEZY ON SATURDAY IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AS
THE HIGH`S BUILDING IN...BUT OVERALL SHOULD SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO - OR PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW- NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MOST OF THE RAIN IS STARTING TO PULL OUT OF THE
AREA WITH ONLY EASTERN AREAS STILL UNDER THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT SHOULD
OTHERWISE BE BECOMING DRY. THE RAIN IS LEAVING BEHIND A VARIETY OF
CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO IFR. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THERE WILL
MOST LIKELY BE A DEGRADATION TO MVFR AND THEN IFR WITH SOME LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER 9Z OR SO AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...EXPECT SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS EARLY GIVING WAY TO
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WITH A MAINLY NORTHERLY SURFACE COMPONENT CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR NO LATER THAN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM: THE CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS BEFORE A STRONGER FRONT
MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KRD
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 300222
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1022 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...

A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT...WHILE AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE GULF COAST. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST...THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SUBSIDENCE COMMENCES
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
FOG. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN HIGH (DEWPOINT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S) AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...WINDS
WILL BE MOSTLY CALM. SOME CLEARING IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE WEST AND
IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST. IN ADDITION... MOST LOCATIONS SAW AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIP TODAY. THEREFORE...PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO
THE FORECAST...WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT ENOUGH). OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...

WITH A MOIST/STAGNANT SURFACE AIRMASS IN PLACE...CLEARING ASSOC/W
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG AND/OR OVERCAST LOW CEILINGS BY
07-10Z TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION OR
MIXING...FOG AND/OR LOW CEILINGS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO LIFT AND
COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS DIURNAL HEATING/BUOYANT MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
CLOUD COVER TO LIFT/SCATTER BY ~15Z...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER
70S TO 80-81F. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
THE MASON DIXON LINE TUE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING (AND ANY
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION) ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...THOUGH A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER
WILL BE POSSIBLE ~06Z WED IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE...ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT...SET UP OVER THE
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SUGGEST SOME
AFTERNOON SHALLOW CU BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL INVERSION. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS AROUND 1395 SUGGESTS HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND 60.

THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER FOR US WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT`S NOW
PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE LATE ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING AHEAD OF IT THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
RAPID MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY AS SW FLOW IN THE BL INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE END
RESULT NOWS LOOKS LIKE A BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC PERHAPS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. AS FOR INTENSITY...MOST OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE OF SHOWER VARIETY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME SKINNY CAPE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...
BUT MORE NOTABLY 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON INSTABILITY TRENDS WITH FUTURE MODELS RUNS. OF COURSE THE
TIMING OF THIS WILL BE FINE-TUNED AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER...SO IF
YOU HAVE OUTDOOR EVENTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING...YOU`LL
DEFINITELY WANT TO CHECK BACK LATER THIS WEEK FOR AN UPDATE.

NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH A COOLING AND DRYING TREND IN ITS WAKE FOR THIS
WEEKEND. A LITTLE BREEZY ON SATURDAY IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AS
THE HIGH`S BUILDING IN...BUT OVERALL SHOULD SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO - OR PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW- NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MOST OF THE RAIN IS STARTING TO PULL OUT OF THE
AREA WITH ONLY EASTERN AREAS STILL UNDER THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT SHOULD
OTHERWISE BE BECOMING DRY. THE RAIN IS LEAVING BEHIND A VARIETY OF
CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO IFR. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THERE WILL
MOST LIKELY BE A DEGRADATION TO MVFR AND THEN IFR WITH SOME LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER 9Z OR SO AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...EXPECT SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS EARLY GIVING WAY TO
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WITH A MAINLY NORTHERLY SURFACE COMPONENT CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR NO LATER THAN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM: THE CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS BEFORE A STRONGER FRONT
MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KRD
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 300008
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
808 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS
TODAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...

OVERVIEW: A SHORTWAVE OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL PROGRESS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY...MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (ATTENDANT THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE) DEVELOPS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

PRECIPITATION: FORCING FOR ASCENT TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO
DPVA...H5 WARM ADVECTION...AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ATTENDANT THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LOW-LEVEL FORCING OR
MOISTURE ADVECTION...FORCING ASSOC/W THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN BROKEN/OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CEILINGS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...BUT LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES GIVEN A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS IN THE LOWEST 10 KFT PER 12Z GSO/MHX RAOB DATA. MARGINAL
ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION (LESS THAN 100 J/KG) ASSOC/W MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR OCCASIONAL ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR...PER LATEST RAP/NAM
FCST SOUNDINGS. WILL INDICATE A 40-60% CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS THROUGH SUNSET...DECREASING/ENDING FROM WEST-EAST BETWEEN 00-
06Z AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COAST AND SUBSIDENCE
ENSUES OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL NC.

TEMPERATURES: OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CEILINGS WILL REDUCE INSOLATION
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SPRINKLES AND ELEVATED SHOWERS FOSTER THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN IN-SITU TYPE CAD WEDGE. AS A RESULT...HIGHS TODAY
ARE SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING. GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS...EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC...
COOLEST IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...

WITH A MOIST/STAGNANT SURFACE AIRMASS IN PLACE...CLEARING ASSOC/W
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG AND/OR OVERCAST LOW CEILINGS BY
07-10Z TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION OR
MIXING...FOG AND/OR LOW CEILINGS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO LIFT AND
COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS DIURNAL HEATING/BUOYANT MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
CLOUD COVER TO LIFT/SCATTER BY ~15Z...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER
70S TO 80-81F. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
THE MASON DIXON LINE TUE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING (AND ANY
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION) ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...THOUGH A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER
WILL BE POSSIBLE ~06Z WED IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE...ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT...SET UP OVER THE
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SUGGEST SOME
AFTERNOON SHALLOW CU BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL INVERSION. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS AROUND 1395 SUGGESTS HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND 60.

THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER FOR US WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT`S NOW
PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE LATE ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING AHEAD OF IT THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
RAPID MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY AS SW FLOW IN THE BL INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE END
RESULT NOWS LOOKS LIKE A BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC PERHAPS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. AS FOR INTENSITY...MOST OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE OF SHOWER VARIETY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME SKINNY CAPE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...
BUT MORE NOTABLY 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON INSTABILITY TRENDS WITH FUTURE MODELS RUNS. OF COURSE THE
TIMING OF THIS WILL BE FINE-TUNED AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER...SO IF
YOU HAVE OUTDOOR EVENTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING...YOU`LL
DEFINITELY WANT TO CHECK BACK LATER THIS WEEK FOR AN UPDATE.

NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH A COOLING AND DRYING TREND IN ITS WAKE FOR THIS
WEEKEND. A LITTLE BREEZY ON SATURDAY IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AS
THE HIGH`S BUILDING IN...BUT OVERALL SHOULD SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO - OR PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW- NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MOST OF THE RAIN IS STARTING TO PULL OUT OF THE
AREA WITH ONLY EASTERN AREAS STILL UNDER THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT SHOULD
OTHERWISE BE BECOMING DRY. THE RAIN IS LEAVING BEHIND A VARIETY OF
CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO IFR. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THERE WILL
MOST LIKELY BE A DEGRADATION TO MVFR AND THEN IFR WITH SOME LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER 9Z OR SO AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...EXPECT SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS EARLY GIVING WAY TO
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WITH A MAINLY NORTHERLY SURFACE COMPONENT CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR NO LATER THAN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM: THE CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS BEFORE A STRONGER FRONT
MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 300008
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
808 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS
TODAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...

OVERVIEW: A SHORTWAVE OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL PROGRESS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY...MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (ATTENDANT THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE) DEVELOPS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

PRECIPITATION: FORCING FOR ASCENT TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO
DPVA...H5 WARM ADVECTION...AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ATTENDANT THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LOW-LEVEL FORCING OR
MOISTURE ADVECTION...FORCING ASSOC/W THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN BROKEN/OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CEILINGS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...BUT LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES GIVEN A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS IN THE LOWEST 10 KFT PER 12Z GSO/MHX RAOB DATA. MARGINAL
ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION (LESS THAN 100 J/KG) ASSOC/W MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR OCCASIONAL ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR...PER LATEST RAP/NAM
FCST SOUNDINGS. WILL INDICATE A 40-60% CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS THROUGH SUNSET...DECREASING/ENDING FROM WEST-EAST BETWEEN 00-
06Z AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COAST AND SUBSIDENCE
ENSUES OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL NC.

TEMPERATURES: OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CEILINGS WILL REDUCE INSOLATION
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SPRINKLES AND ELEVATED SHOWERS FOSTER THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN IN-SITU TYPE CAD WEDGE. AS A RESULT...HIGHS TODAY
ARE SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING. GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS...EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC...
COOLEST IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...

WITH A MOIST/STAGNANT SURFACE AIRMASS IN PLACE...CLEARING ASSOC/W
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG AND/OR OVERCAST LOW CEILINGS BY
07-10Z TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION OR
MIXING...FOG AND/OR LOW CEILINGS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO LIFT AND
COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS DIURNAL HEATING/BUOYANT MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
CLOUD COVER TO LIFT/SCATTER BY ~15Z...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER
70S TO 80-81F. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
THE MASON DIXON LINE TUE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING (AND ANY
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION) ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...THOUGH A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER
WILL BE POSSIBLE ~06Z WED IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE...ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT...SET UP OVER THE
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SUGGEST SOME
AFTERNOON SHALLOW CU BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL INVERSION. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS AROUND 1395 SUGGESTS HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND 60.

THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER FOR US WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT`S NOW
PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE LATE ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING AHEAD OF IT THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
RAPID MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY AS SW FLOW IN THE BL INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE END
RESULT NOWS LOOKS LIKE A BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC PERHAPS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. AS FOR INTENSITY...MOST OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE OF SHOWER VARIETY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME SKINNY CAPE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...
BUT MORE NOTABLY 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON INSTABILITY TRENDS WITH FUTURE MODELS RUNS. OF COURSE THE
TIMING OF THIS WILL BE FINE-TUNED AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER...SO IF
YOU HAVE OUTDOOR EVENTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING...YOU`LL
DEFINITELY WANT TO CHECK BACK LATER THIS WEEK FOR AN UPDATE.

NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH A COOLING AND DRYING TREND IN ITS WAKE FOR THIS
WEEKEND. A LITTLE BREEZY ON SATURDAY IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AS
THE HIGH`S BUILDING IN...BUT OVERALL SHOULD SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO - OR PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW- NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MOST OF THE RAIN IS STARTING TO PULL OUT OF THE
AREA WITH ONLY EASTERN AREAS STILL UNDER THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE SYSTEM BUT SHOULD
OTHERWISE BE BECOMING DRY. THE RAIN IS LEAVING BEHIND A VARIETY OF
CONDITIONS FROM VFR TO IFR. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THERE WILL
MOST LIKELY BE A DEGRADATION TO MVFR AND THEN IFR WITH SOME LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER 9Z OR SO AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...EXPECT SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS EARLY GIVING WAY TO
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WITH A MAINLY NORTHERLY SURFACE COMPONENT CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR NO LATER THAN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM: THE CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS BEFORE A STRONGER FRONT
MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 291722
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
120 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS
TODAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...

OVERVIEW: A SHORTWAVE OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL PROGRESS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY...MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (ATTENDANT THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE) DEVELOPS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

PRECIPITATION: FORCING FOR ASCENT TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO
DPVA...H5 WARM ADVECTION...AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ATTENDANT THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LOW-LEVEL FORCING OR
MOISTURE ADVECTION...FORCING ASSOC/W THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN BROKEN/OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CEILINGS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...BUT LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES GIVEN A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS IN THE LOWEST 10 KFT PER 12Z GSO/MHX RAOB DATA. MARGINAL
ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION (LESS THAN 100 J/KG) ASSOC/W MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR OCCASIONAL ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR...PER LATEST RAP/NAM
FCST SOUNDINGS. WILL INDICATE A 40-60% CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS THROUGH SUNSET...DECREASING/ENDING FROM WEST-EAST BETWEEN 00-
06Z AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COAST AND SUBSIDENCE
ENSUES OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL NC.

TEMPERATURES: OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CEILINGS WILL REDUCE INSOLATION
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SPRINKLES AND ELEVATED SHOWERS FOSTER THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN IN-SITU TYPE CAD WEDGE. AS A RESULT...HIGHS TODAY
ARE SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING. GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS...EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC...
COOLEST IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...

WITH A MOIST/STAGNANT SURFACE AIRMASS IN PLACE...CLEARING ASSOC/W
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG AND/OR OVERCAST LOW CEILINGS BY
07-10Z TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION OR
MIXING...FOG AND/OR LOW CEILINGS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO LIFT AND
COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS DIURNAL HEATING/BUOYANT MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
CLOUD COVER TO LIFT/SCATTER BY ~15Z...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER
70S TO 80-81F. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
THE MASON DIXON LINE TUE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING (AND ANY
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION) ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...THOUGH A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER
WILL BE POSSIBLE ~06Z WED IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE...ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT...SET UP OVER THE
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SUGGEST SOME
AFTERNOON SHALLOW CU BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL INVERSION. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS AROUND 1395 SUGGESTS HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND 60.

THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER FOR US WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT`S NOW
PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE LATE ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING AHEAD OF IT THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
RAPID MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY AS SW FLOW IN THE BL INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE END
RESULT NOWS LOOKS LIKE A BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC PERHAPS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. AS FOR INTENSITY...MOST OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE OF SHOWER VARIETY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME SKINNY CAPE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...
BUT MORE NOTABLY 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON INSTABILITY TRENDS WITH FUTURE MODELS RUNS. OF COURSE THE
TIMING OF THIS WILL BE FINE-TUNED AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER...SO IF
YOU HAVE OUTDOOR EVENTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING...YOU`LL
DEFINITELY WANT TO CHECK BACK LATER THIS WEEK FOR AN UPDATE.

NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH A COOLING AND DRYING TREND IN ITS WAKE FOR THIS
WEEKEND. A LITTLE BREEZY ON SATURDAY IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AS
THE HIGH`S BUILDING IN...BUT OVERALL SHOULD SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO - OR PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW- NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT
IN OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CEILINGS (8-12 KFT) AND OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MID-LEVEL CEILINGS WILL CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST...AND FCST SOUNDINGS
STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT DENSE FOG OR LIFR/VLIFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
BY ~08Z IN ASSOC/W CALM WINDS AND AN AIRMASS THAT IS ALREADY NEARLY
SATURATED...PARTICULARLY AT THE RDU/FAY/RWI TERMINALS. IMPROVEMENT
MAY BE SLOW TO OCCUR TUE MORNING GIVEN SUCH A STAGNANT LOW-LEVEL
PATTERN...AND VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY TO RETURN PRIOR TO
~14Z.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TUE/WED AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 291722
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
120 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS
TODAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...

OVERVIEW: A SHORTWAVE OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL PROGRESS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY...MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (ATTENDANT THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE) DEVELOPS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

PRECIPITATION: FORCING FOR ASCENT TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO
DPVA...H5 WARM ADVECTION...AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ATTENDANT THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LOW-LEVEL FORCING OR
MOISTURE ADVECTION...FORCING ASSOC/W THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN BROKEN/OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CEILINGS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...BUT LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES GIVEN A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS IN THE LOWEST 10 KFT PER 12Z GSO/MHX RAOB DATA. MARGINAL
ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION (LESS THAN 100 J/KG) ASSOC/W MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR OCCASIONAL ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR...PER LATEST RAP/NAM
FCST SOUNDINGS. WILL INDICATE A 40-60% CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS THROUGH SUNSET...DECREASING/ENDING FROM WEST-EAST BETWEEN 00-
06Z AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COAST AND SUBSIDENCE
ENSUES OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL NC.

TEMPERATURES: OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CEILINGS WILL REDUCE INSOLATION
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SPRINKLES AND ELEVATED SHOWERS FOSTER THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN IN-SITU TYPE CAD WEDGE. AS A RESULT...HIGHS TODAY
ARE SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING. GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS...EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC...
COOLEST IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...

WITH A MOIST/STAGNANT SURFACE AIRMASS IN PLACE...CLEARING ASSOC/W
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG AND/OR OVERCAST LOW CEILINGS BY
07-10Z TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION OR
MIXING...FOG AND/OR LOW CEILINGS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO LIFT AND
COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS DIURNAL HEATING/BUOYANT MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
CLOUD COVER TO LIFT/SCATTER BY ~15Z...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER
70S TO 80-81F. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
THE MASON DIXON LINE TUE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING (AND ANY
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION) ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...THOUGH A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER
WILL BE POSSIBLE ~06Z WED IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE...ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT...SET UP OVER THE
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SUGGEST SOME
AFTERNOON SHALLOW CU BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL INVERSION. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS AROUND 1395 SUGGESTS HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND 60.

THE NEXT WEATHER-MAKER FOR US WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT`S NOW
PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE LATE ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING AHEAD OF IT THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
RAPID MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY AS SW FLOW IN THE BL INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE END
RESULT NOWS LOOKS LIKE A BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC PERHAPS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. AS FOR INTENSITY...MOST OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE OF SHOWER VARIETY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME SKINNY CAPE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...
BUT MORE NOTABLY 30-40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON INSTABILITY TRENDS WITH FUTURE MODELS RUNS. OF COURSE THE
TIMING OF THIS WILL BE FINE-TUNED AS WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER...SO IF
YOU HAVE OUTDOOR EVENTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND/OR EVENING...YOU`LL
DEFINITELY WANT TO CHECK BACK LATER THIS WEEK FOR AN UPDATE.

NOW LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH A COOLING AND DRYING TREND IN ITS WAKE FOR THIS
WEEKEND. A LITTLE BREEZY ON SATURDAY IN THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT AS
THE HIGH`S BUILDING IN...BUT OVERALL SHOULD SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK CLOSER TO - OR PERHAPS A
LITTLE BELOW- NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT
IN OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CEILINGS (8-12 KFT) AND OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MID-LEVEL CEILINGS WILL CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST...AND FCST SOUNDINGS
STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT DENSE FOG OR LIFR/VLIFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
BY ~08Z IN ASSOC/W CALM WINDS AND AN AIRMASS THAT IS ALREADY NEARLY
SATURATED...PARTICULARLY AT THE RDU/FAY/RWI TERMINALS. IMPROVEMENT
MAY BE SLOW TO OCCUR TUE MORNING GIVEN SUCH A STAGNANT LOW-LEVEL
PATTERN...AND VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY TO RETURN PRIOR TO
~14Z.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TUE/WED AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 291547
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1147 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS
TODAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...

OVERVIEW: A SHORTWAVE OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL PROGRESS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY...MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (ATTENDANT THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE) DEVELOPS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

PRECIPITATION: FORCING FOR ASCENT TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO
DPVA...H5 WARM ADVECTION...AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ATTENDANT THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LOW-LEVEL FORCING OR
MOISTURE ADVECTION...FORCING ASSOC/W THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN BROKEN/OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CEILINGS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...BUT LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES GIVEN A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS IN THE LOWEST 10 KFT PER 12Z GSO/MHX RAOB DATA. MARGINAL
ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION (LESS THAN 100 J/KG) ASSOC/W MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR OCCASIONAL ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR...PER LATEST RAP/NAM
FCST SOUNDINGS. WILL INDICATE A 40-60% CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS THROUGH SUNSET...DECREASING/ENDING FROM WEST-EAST BETWEEN 00-
06Z AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COAST AND SUBSIDENCE
ENSUES OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL NC.

TEMPERATURES: OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CEILINGS WILL REDUCE INSOLATION
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SPRINKLES AND ELEVATED SHOWERS FOSTER THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN IN-SITU TYPE CAD WEDGE. AS A RESULT...HIGHS TODAY
ARE SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING. GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS...EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC...
COOLEST IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...

WITH A MOIST/STAGNANT SURFACE AIRMASS IN PLACE...CLEARING ASSOC/W
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG AND/OR OVERCAST LOW CEILINGS BY
07-10Z TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION OR
MIXING...FOG AND/OR LOW CEILINGS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO LIFT AND
COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS DIURNAL HEATING/BUOYANT MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
CLOUD COVER TO LIFT/SCATTER BY ~15Z...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER
70S TO 80-81F. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
THE MASON DIXON LINE TUE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING (AND ANY
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION) ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...THOUGH A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER
WILL BE POSSIBLE ~06Z WED IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY MOVES OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS HEIGHTS
SLOWLY RISE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
WITH THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF 850MB
THETA-E FORECAST BY THE GFS...AND WEAK 850MB LIFT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE GFS FORECASTS DECENT 850MB DIVERGENCE
AND WEAK CONFLUENCE ALOFT. THE MEAN AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY...
WITH BETTER MOISTURE SEEMINGLY CONFINED TO AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL.
MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW...AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED TO ANY
DEEP CONVECTION. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...
WITH STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHICH
ARE SUFFICIENT TO GET PARCELS THROUGH THE CAP. AS SUCH...THE NAM
FORECASTS MINOR QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY THIS INSTABILITY SEEMS OVERDONE. WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS HEIGHTS START TO RISE ALOFT...AND
IN DEFERENCE TO THE DRY GFS WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF. MOS
GUIDANCE HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE IN LINE WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES...
SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER TO MID 80S. WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NEARBY...
ALBEIT WEAK...MAY LEAN ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER ON AVERAGE. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT 59 TO 63.

FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANY WEAK LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. BOTH THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF FORECAST MINOR QPF OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WHICH HAS
OCCURRED OFF AND ON THE LAST FEW OF THESE MODEL RUNS. COARSE MODEL
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SOME
DEGREE...BUT A CAPPED AIR MASS IN GENERAL WITH PARCELS POSSIBLY ABLE
TO REACH BETWEEN -10C AND -15C IN THE MOST UNSTABLE SCENARIO BEFORE
REACHING THE CAP. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE...GIVEN THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT...FOR NOW
WILL RETAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

THE TREND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TO SPEED UP THE APPROACH
OF AN ELONGATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DIGGING MID-
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE FRONTAL ORIENTATION IS
POSITIVE...A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT TO THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF COULD RESULT IN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE AREA...AND SUBSEQUENTLY THEN EAST OF THE AREA AS
WELL...FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. INSTABILITY STILL SEEMS
LIMITED...BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
TO THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE...AND INDEED A LITTLE INSTABILITY
ON COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST. THE ECMWF DIGS THE MID-
LEVEL LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS WITH AMPLE VORTICITY
ADVECTION JUST TO OUR NORTH OVER VIRGINIA LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...MORE CLOUDS AND EVEN A SMALL CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH SUCH A VIGOROUS WAVE
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OUT TO THE
END OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES ARE QUITE CHILLY BY SUNDAY AT 12Z AND HAVE TRENDED
LOWER...SO IT CURRENTLY SEEMS LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME 40S FOR LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM THE TRIANGLE WEST AND NORTH...AND
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE SUNDAY NIGHT. -DJF

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT
IN OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CEILINGS (8-12 KFT) AND OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MID-LEVEL CEILINGS WILL CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST...AND FCST SOUNDINGS
STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT DENSE FOG OR LIFR/VLIFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
BY ~08Z IN ASSOC/W CALM WINDS AND AN AIRMASS THAT IS ALREADY NEARLY
SATURATED...PARTICULARLY AT THE RDU/FAY/RWI TERMINALS. IMPROVEMENT
MAY BE SLOW TO OCCUR TUE MORNING GIVEN SUCH A STAGNANT LOW-LEVEL
PATTERN...AND VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY TO RETURN PRIOR TO
~14Z.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TUE/WED AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 291547
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1147 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS
TODAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...

OVERVIEW: A SHORTWAVE OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL PROGRESS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY...MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (ATTENDANT THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE) DEVELOPS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

PRECIPITATION: FORCING FOR ASCENT TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO
DPVA...H5 WARM ADVECTION...AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ATTENDANT THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LOW-LEVEL FORCING OR
MOISTURE ADVECTION...FORCING ASSOC/W THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN BROKEN/OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CEILINGS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...BUT LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES GIVEN A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS IN THE LOWEST 10 KFT PER 12Z GSO/MHX RAOB DATA. MARGINAL
ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION (LESS THAN 100 J/KG) ASSOC/W MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR OCCASIONAL ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR...PER LATEST RAP/NAM
FCST SOUNDINGS. WILL INDICATE A 40-60% CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS THROUGH SUNSET...DECREASING/ENDING FROM WEST-EAST BETWEEN 00-
06Z AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COAST AND SUBSIDENCE
ENSUES OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL NC.

TEMPERATURES: OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CEILINGS WILL REDUCE INSOLATION
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SPRINKLES AND ELEVATED SHOWERS FOSTER THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN IN-SITU TYPE CAD WEDGE. AS A RESULT...HIGHS TODAY
ARE SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING. GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS...EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC...
COOLEST IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...

WITH A MOIST/STAGNANT SURFACE AIRMASS IN PLACE...CLEARING ASSOC/W
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG AND/OR OVERCAST LOW CEILINGS BY
07-10Z TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION OR
MIXING...FOG AND/OR LOW CEILINGS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO LIFT AND
COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS DIURNAL HEATING/BUOYANT MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
CLOUD COVER TO LIFT/SCATTER BY ~15Z...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER
70S TO 80-81F. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
THE MASON DIXON LINE TUE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING (AND ANY
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION) ASSOC/W THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL NC...THOUGH A PERIOD OF CLOUD COVER
WILL BE POSSIBLE ~06Z WED IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY MOVES OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS HEIGHTS
SLOWLY RISE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
WITH THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF 850MB
THETA-E FORECAST BY THE GFS...AND WEAK 850MB LIFT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE GFS FORECASTS DECENT 850MB DIVERGENCE
AND WEAK CONFLUENCE ALOFT. THE MEAN AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY...
WITH BETTER MOISTURE SEEMINGLY CONFINED TO AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL.
MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW...AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED TO ANY
DEEP CONVECTION. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...
WITH STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHICH
ARE SUFFICIENT TO GET PARCELS THROUGH THE CAP. AS SUCH...THE NAM
FORECASTS MINOR QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY THIS INSTABILITY SEEMS OVERDONE. WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS HEIGHTS START TO RISE ALOFT...AND
IN DEFERENCE TO THE DRY GFS WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF. MOS
GUIDANCE HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE IN LINE WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES...
SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER TO MID 80S. WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NEARBY...
ALBEIT WEAK...MAY LEAN ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER ON AVERAGE. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT 59 TO 63.

FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANY WEAK LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. BOTH THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF FORECAST MINOR QPF OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WHICH HAS
OCCURRED OFF AND ON THE LAST FEW OF THESE MODEL RUNS. COARSE MODEL
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SOME
DEGREE...BUT A CAPPED AIR MASS IN GENERAL WITH PARCELS POSSIBLY ABLE
TO REACH BETWEEN -10C AND -15C IN THE MOST UNSTABLE SCENARIO BEFORE
REACHING THE CAP. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE...GIVEN THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT...FOR NOW
WILL RETAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

THE TREND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TO SPEED UP THE APPROACH
OF AN ELONGATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DIGGING MID-
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE FRONTAL ORIENTATION IS
POSITIVE...A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT TO THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF COULD RESULT IN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE AREA...AND SUBSEQUENTLY THEN EAST OF THE AREA AS
WELL...FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. INSTABILITY STILL SEEMS
LIMITED...BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
TO THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE...AND INDEED A LITTLE INSTABILITY
ON COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST. THE ECMWF DIGS THE MID-
LEVEL LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS WITH AMPLE VORTICITY
ADVECTION JUST TO OUR NORTH OVER VIRGINIA LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...MORE CLOUDS AND EVEN A SMALL CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH SUCH A VIGOROUS WAVE
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OUT TO THE
END OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES ARE QUITE CHILLY BY SUNDAY AT 12Z AND HAVE TRENDED
LOWER...SO IT CURRENTLY SEEMS LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME 40S FOR LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM THE TRIANGLE WEST AND NORTH...AND
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE SUNDAY NIGHT. -DJF

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT
IN OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CEILINGS (8-12 KFT) AND OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MID-LEVEL CEILINGS WILL CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST...AND FCST SOUNDINGS
STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT DENSE FOG OR LIFR/VLIFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
BY ~08Z IN ASSOC/W CALM WINDS AND AN AIRMASS THAT IS ALREADY NEARLY
SATURATED...PARTICULARLY AT THE RDU/FAY/RWI TERMINALS. IMPROVEMENT
MAY BE SLOW TO OCCUR TUE MORNING GIVEN SUCH A STAGNANT LOW-LEVEL
PATTERN...AND VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY TO RETURN PRIOR TO
~14Z.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TUE/WED AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 291419
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1019 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS
TODAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM MONDAY...

OVERVIEW: A SHORTWAVE OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL PROGRESS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY...MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (ATTENDANT THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE) DEVELOPS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

PRECIPITATION: FORCING FOR ASCENT TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO
DPVA...H5 WARM ADVECTION...AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ATTENDANT THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LOW-LEVEL FORCING OR
MOISTURE ADVECTION...FORCING ASSOC/W THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN BROKEN/OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CEILINGS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...BUT LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES GIVEN A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS IN THE LOWEST 10 KFT PER 12Z GSO/MHX RAOB DATA. MARGINAL
ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION (LESS THAN 100 J/KG) ASSOC/W MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR OCCASIONAL ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR...PER LATEST RAP/NAM
FCST SOUNDINGS. WILL INDICATE A 40-60% CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS THROUGH SUNSET...DECREASING/ENDING FROM WEST-EAST BETWEEN 00-
06Z AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COAST AND SUBSIDENCE
ENSUES OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL NC.

TEMPERATURES: OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CEILINGS WILL REDUCE INSOLATION
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SPRINKLES AND ELEVATED SHOWERS FOSTER THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN IN-SITU TYPE CAD WEDGE. AS A RESULT...HIGHS TODAY
ARE SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING. GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS...EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC...
COOLEST IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

EXPECT A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO SPAN THE REGION. DESPITE THE
WEAK LOW TRACKING NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST... THE NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A MOSTLY DRY COLUMN... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE
LOW IS WELL OFFSHORE AND NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO STRENGTHEN THE NE
SURFACE WINDS OVER CENTRAL NC. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...
TEMPS SHOULD RISE NICELY TO PEAK WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80...
STILL ON THE LOW END OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE BUT FOLLOWING ITS TREND
AS WELL AS WARMING THICKNESSES. THE POWERFUL TROUGH NOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ONTARIO DROPS SOUTH THEN SE ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC REGION
TUE NIGHT... WHICH SHOULD BRING A SHOT OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
THE NRN AND ERN CWA LATE TUE NIGHT... CORRESPONDING TO MODELS WHICH
SHOW A SUBTLE RESURGENCE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX. WILL BRING IN A
FEW MORE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST... BUT NO
PRECIP CHANCES FOR NOW... AS THE COLUMN IS STILL PROJECTED TO BE TOO
DRY AND THE LIFT TOO WEAK. LOWS 56-60. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY MOVES OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS HEIGHTS
SLOWLY RISE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
WITH THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF 850MB
THETA-E FORECAST BY THE GFS...AND WEAK 850MB LIFT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE GFS FORECASTS DECENT 850MB DIVERGENCE
AND WEAK CONFLUENCE ALOFT. THE MEAN AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY...
WITH BETTER MOISTURE SEEMINGLY CONFINED TO AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL.
MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW...AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED TO ANY
DEEP CONVECTION. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...
WITH STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHICH
ARE SUFFICIENT TO GET PARCELS THROUGH THE CAP. AS SUCH...THE NAM
FORECASTS MINOR QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY THIS INSTABILITY SEEMS OVERDONE. WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS HEIGHTS START TO RISE ALOFT...AND
IN DEFERENCE TO THE DRY GFS WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF. MOS
GUIDANCE HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE IN LINE WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES...
SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER TO MID 80S. WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NEARBY...
ALBEIT WEAK...MAY LEAN ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER ON AVERAGE. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT 59 TO 63.

FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANY WEAK LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. BOTH THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF FORECAST MINOR QPF OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WHICH HAS
OCCURRED OFF AND ON THE LAST FEW OF THESE MODEL RUNS. COARSE MODEL
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SOME
DEGREE...BUT A CAPPED AIR MASS IN GENERAL WITH PARCELS POSSIBLY ABLE
TO REACH BETWEEN -10C AND -15C IN THE MOST UNSTABLE SCENARIO BEFORE
REACHING THE CAP. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE...GIVEN THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT...FOR NOW
WILL RETAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

THE TREND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TO SPEED UP THE APPROACH
OF AN ELONGATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DIGGING MID-
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE FRONTAL ORIENTATION IS
POSITIVE...A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT TO THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF COULD RESULT IN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE AREA...AND SUBSEQUENTLY THEN EAST OF THE AREA AS
WELL...FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. INSTABILITY STILL SEEMS
LIMITED...BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
TO THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE...AND INDEED A LITTLE INSTABILITY
ON COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST. THE ECMWF DIGS THE MID-
LEVEL LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS WITH AMPLE VORTICITY
ADVECTION JUST TO OUR NORTH OVER VIRGINIA LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...MORE CLOUDS AND EVEN A SMALL CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH SUCH A VIGOROUS WAVE
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OUT TO THE
END OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES ARE QUITE CHILLY BY SUNDAY AT 12Z AND HAVE TRENDED
LOWER...SO IT CURRENTLY SEEMS LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME 40S FOR LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM THE TRIANGLE WEST AND NORTH...AND
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE SUNDAY NIGHT. -DJF

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT CENTRAL NC TAF
SITES... WITH A FEW BRIEF EXCEPTIONS. RWI IS SEEING ISOLATED POCKETS
OF SHALLOW DENSE FOG DRIFT NEAR THE AIRFIELD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS... CAUSING WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS FROM VFR DOWN TO LIFR
(OVERNIGHT OBSERVATIONS HAVE DIPPED AS LOW AS 1/2 MI AND 200 FT CIGS
BEFORE RETURNING TO MVFR OR VFR) AT THAT SITE. THIS ADVERSE AVIATION
WEATHER SHOULD END BEFORE 14Z. OTHERWISE... A THICK DECK OF MID
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING... WITH
CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER BELOW 5 000 FT AGL BY MID MORNING (GSO/INT)
OR THE NOON HOUR (RDU/RWI/FAY) ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH. THESE LOWERING CIGS WILL COINCIDE
WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN THAT WILL EXPAND OVER THE AREA FROM SW TO
NE... SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH TODAY WHILE
DECREASING IN COVERAGE TO BECOME VERY LIGHT/PATCHY. BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS LIGHT RAIN... MAINLY NEAR GSO/INT... BUT
OVERALL VFR VSBYS SHOULD STILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT... MAINLY CALM THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN LIGHT/VARIABLE
UNDER 6 KTS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. ONCE THE VEIL OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EXITS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES... WITH
WINDS STAYING VERY LIGHT... CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR POSSIBLE SHALLOW
LIFR STRATUS/FOG BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z TUE MORNING... HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH BASED ON DIFFERING COMPUTER MODEL SOLUTIONS. IF
IT OCCURS... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID MORNING TUE.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z TUE MORNING...  MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE
AND AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FRI...
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RISING SHOWER CHANCES
STARTING FRI. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 291419
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1019 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS
TODAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM MONDAY...

OVERVIEW: A SHORTWAVE OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL PROGRESS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY...MOVING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NC
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (ATTENDANT THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE) DEVELOPS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

PRECIPITATION: FORCING FOR ASCENT TODAY WILL BE CONFINED TO
DPVA...H5 WARM ADVECTION...AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ATTENDANT THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LOW-LEVEL FORCING OR
MOISTURE ADVECTION...FORCING ASSOC/W THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN BROKEN/OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CEILINGS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...BUT LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES GIVEN A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS IN THE LOWEST 10 KFT PER 12Z GSO/MHX RAOB DATA. MARGINAL
ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION (LESS THAN 100 J/KG) ASSOC/W MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR OCCASIONAL ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR...PER LATEST RAP/NAM
FCST SOUNDINGS. WILL INDICATE A 40-60% CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS THROUGH SUNSET...DECREASING/ENDING FROM WEST-EAST BETWEEN 00-
06Z AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COAST AND SUBSIDENCE
ENSUES OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL NC.

TEMPERATURES: OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CEILINGS WILL REDUCE INSOLATION
THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SPRINKLES AND ELEVATED SHOWERS FOSTER THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN IN-SITU TYPE CAD WEDGE. AS A RESULT...HIGHS TODAY
ARE SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING. GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS...EXPECT HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC...
COOLEST IN THE N/NW PIEDMONT. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

EXPECT A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO SPAN THE REGION. DESPITE THE
WEAK LOW TRACKING NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST... THE NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A MOSTLY DRY COLUMN... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE
LOW IS WELL OFFSHORE AND NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO STRENGTHEN THE NE
SURFACE WINDS OVER CENTRAL NC. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...
TEMPS SHOULD RISE NICELY TO PEAK WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80...
STILL ON THE LOW END OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE BUT FOLLOWING ITS TREND
AS WELL AS WARMING THICKNESSES. THE POWERFUL TROUGH NOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ONTARIO DROPS SOUTH THEN SE ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC REGION
TUE NIGHT... WHICH SHOULD BRING A SHOT OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
THE NRN AND ERN CWA LATE TUE NIGHT... CORRESPONDING TO MODELS WHICH
SHOW A SUBTLE RESURGENCE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX. WILL BRING IN A
FEW MORE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST... BUT NO
PRECIP CHANCES FOR NOW... AS THE COLUMN IS STILL PROJECTED TO BE TOO
DRY AND THE LIFT TOO WEAK. LOWS 56-60. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY MOVES OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS HEIGHTS
SLOWLY RISE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
WITH THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF 850MB
THETA-E FORECAST BY THE GFS...AND WEAK 850MB LIFT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE GFS FORECASTS DECENT 850MB DIVERGENCE
AND WEAK CONFLUENCE ALOFT. THE MEAN AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY...
WITH BETTER MOISTURE SEEMINGLY CONFINED TO AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL.
MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW...AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED TO ANY
DEEP CONVECTION. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...
WITH STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHICH
ARE SUFFICIENT TO GET PARCELS THROUGH THE CAP. AS SUCH...THE NAM
FORECASTS MINOR QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY THIS INSTABILITY SEEMS OVERDONE. WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS HEIGHTS START TO RISE ALOFT...AND
IN DEFERENCE TO THE DRY GFS WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF. MOS
GUIDANCE HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE IN LINE WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES...
SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER TO MID 80S. WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NEARBY...
ALBEIT WEAK...MAY LEAN ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER ON AVERAGE. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT 59 TO 63.

FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANY WEAK LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. BOTH THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF FORECAST MINOR QPF OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WHICH HAS
OCCURRED OFF AND ON THE LAST FEW OF THESE MODEL RUNS. COARSE MODEL
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SOME
DEGREE...BUT A CAPPED AIR MASS IN GENERAL WITH PARCELS POSSIBLY ABLE
TO REACH BETWEEN -10C AND -15C IN THE MOST UNSTABLE SCENARIO BEFORE
REACHING THE CAP. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE...GIVEN THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT...FOR NOW
WILL RETAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

THE TREND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TO SPEED UP THE APPROACH
OF AN ELONGATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DIGGING MID-
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE FRONTAL ORIENTATION IS
POSITIVE...A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT TO THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF COULD RESULT IN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE AREA...AND SUBSEQUENTLY THEN EAST OF THE AREA AS
WELL...FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. INSTABILITY STILL SEEMS
LIMITED...BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
TO THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE...AND INDEED A LITTLE INSTABILITY
ON COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST. THE ECMWF DIGS THE MID-
LEVEL LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS WITH AMPLE VORTICITY
ADVECTION JUST TO OUR NORTH OVER VIRGINIA LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...MORE CLOUDS AND EVEN A SMALL CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH SUCH A VIGOROUS WAVE
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OUT TO THE
END OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES ARE QUITE CHILLY BY SUNDAY AT 12Z AND HAVE TRENDED
LOWER...SO IT CURRENTLY SEEMS LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME 40S FOR LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM THE TRIANGLE WEST AND NORTH...AND
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE SUNDAY NIGHT. -DJF

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT CENTRAL NC TAF
SITES... WITH A FEW BRIEF EXCEPTIONS. RWI IS SEEING ISOLATED POCKETS
OF SHALLOW DENSE FOG DRIFT NEAR THE AIRFIELD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS... CAUSING WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS FROM VFR DOWN TO LIFR
(OVERNIGHT OBSERVATIONS HAVE DIPPED AS LOW AS 1/2 MI AND 200 FT CIGS
BEFORE RETURNING TO MVFR OR VFR) AT THAT SITE. THIS ADVERSE AVIATION
WEATHER SHOULD END BEFORE 14Z. OTHERWISE... A THICK DECK OF MID
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING... WITH
CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER BELOW 5 000 FT AGL BY MID MORNING (GSO/INT)
OR THE NOON HOUR (RDU/RWI/FAY) ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH. THESE LOWERING CIGS WILL COINCIDE
WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN THAT WILL EXPAND OVER THE AREA FROM SW TO
NE... SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH TODAY WHILE
DECREASING IN COVERAGE TO BECOME VERY LIGHT/PATCHY. BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS LIGHT RAIN... MAINLY NEAR GSO/INT... BUT
OVERALL VFR VSBYS SHOULD STILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT... MAINLY CALM THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN LIGHT/VARIABLE
UNDER 6 KTS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. ONCE THE VEIL OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EXITS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES... WITH
WINDS STAYING VERY LIGHT... CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR POSSIBLE SHALLOW
LIFR STRATUS/FOG BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z TUE MORNING... HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH BASED ON DIFFERING COMPUTER MODEL SOLUTIONS. IF
IT OCCURS... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID MORNING TUE.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z TUE MORNING...  MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE
AND AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FRI...
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RISING SHOWER CHANCES
STARTING FRI. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 291054
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF TODAY... CROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT... AND THEN
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

AS ALLUDED TO BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS AND SUPPORTED BY OBSERVED AND
MODEL TRENDS... THIS INCOMING PRECIP EVENT IS SHAPING UP TO BE ONE
CHARACTERIZED BY OVERALL LOW QPF AND MODEST COVERAGE... DECREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL
ZONE FROM THE GULF COAST ACROSS NRN FL AND OFF THE SE COAST... AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERING INTERIOR NC/VA. A BAGGY POSITIVELY-
TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL PUSH EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL NC TODAY... BRINGING WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA. IN FACT...
THE VAST MAJORITY OF FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM 700
MB TO 500 MB... A RESULT OF A VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD BELOW 700 MB
MINIMIZING LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE. MODELS AGREE ON THE PRIME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT HOLDING SOUTH AND SE OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH
TONIGHT... WITH NONEXISTENT LOW LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...
ALL LEADING TO FAIRLY HIGH CLOUD BASES AND LOW QPF DESPITE PW VALUES
SURGING UP TOWARD 1.5 INCHES. THE LATEST WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM AND HRRR
RUNS SUPPORT THIS WEAKENING TREND WITH 700-500 MB TROUGH PASSAGE.
WILL HOLD POPS AT GOOD CHANCE/LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA... DUE TO THE
TROUGH ALOFT AND DECENT 40-50 M HEIGHT FALLS... BUT QPF SHOULD BE
UNDER A QUARTER INCH (AND MAY BE JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN MANY
SPOTS). WITH ANY RAIN EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER AND OF SHORTER
DURATION... TEMPS SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO WARM UP A BIT MORE THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT... ALTHOUGH THE MID CLOUD DECK LOOKS TO BE THICK
ENOUGH TO GREATLY CURB SOLAR INSOLATION. WILL KEEP HIGHS ON THE LOW
END OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE... 70-75 UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...
WITH THE COOLER READINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE CLOUDS AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED NEAR THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DROP FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE FORCING BEGINS TO EXIT. THE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE
POST-TROUGH... BUT THIS COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS COULD
SET THE STAGE FOR SHALLOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
MODELS DON`T AGREE ON THIS AT ALL... SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...
BUT WILL INDICATE A TREND FROM FAIR BACK UP TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATE.
LOWS 55-60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

EXPECT A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO SPAN THE REGION. DESPITE THE
WEAK LOW TRACKING NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST... THE NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A MOSTLY DRY COLUMN... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE
LOW IS WELL OFFSHORE AND NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO STRENGTHEN THE NE
SURFACE WINDS OVER CENTRAL NC. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...
TEMPS SHOULD RISE NICELY TO PEAK WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80...
STILL ON THE LOW END OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE BUT FOLLOWING ITS TREND
AS WELL AS WARMING THICKNESSES. THE POWERFUL TROUGH NOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ONTARIO DROPS SOUTH THEN SE ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC REGION
TUE NIGHT... WHICH SHOULD BRING A SHOT OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
THE NRN AND ERN CWA LATE TUE NIGHT... CORRESPONDING TO MODELS WHICH
SHOW A SUBTLE RESURGENCE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX. WILL BRING IN A
FEW MORE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST... BUT NO
PRECIP CHANCES FOR NOW... AS THE COLUMN IS STILL PROJECTED TO BE TOO
DRY AND THE LIFT TOO WEAK. LOWS 56-60. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY MOVES OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS HEIGHTS
SLOWLY RISE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
WITH THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF 850MB
THETA-E FORECAST BY THE GFS...AND WEAK 850MB LIFT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE GFS FORECASTS DECENT 850MB DIVERGENCE
AND WEAK CONFLUENCE ALOFT. THE MEAN AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY...
WITH BETTER MOISTURE SEEMINGLY CONFINED TO AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL.
MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW...AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED TO ANY
DEEP CONVECTION. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...
WITH STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHICH
ARE SUFFICIENT TO GET PARCELS THROUGH THE CAP. AS SUCH...THE NAM
FORECASTS MINOR QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY THIS INSTABILITY SEEMS OVERDONE. WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS HEIGHTS START TO RISE ALOFT...AND
IN DEFERENCE TO THE DRY GFS WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF. MOS
GUIDANCE HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE IN LINE WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES...
SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER TO MID 80S. WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NEARBY...
ALBEIT WEAK...MAY LEAN ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER ON AVERAGE. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT 59 TO 63.

FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANY WEAK LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. BOTH THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF FORECAST MINOR QPF OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WHICH HAS
OCCURRED OFF AND ON THE LAST FEW OF THESE MODEL RUNS. COARSE MODEL
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SOME
DEGREE...BUT A CAPPED AIR MASS IN GENERAL WITH PARCELS POSSIBLY ABLE
TO REACH BETWEEN -10C AND -15C IN THE MOST UNSTABLE SCENARIO BEFORE
REACHING THE CAP. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE...GIVEN THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT...FOR NOW
WILL RETAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

THE TREND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TO SPEED UP THE APPROACH
OF AN ELONGATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DIGGING MID-
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE FRONTAL ORIENTATION IS
POSITIVE...A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT TO THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF COULD RESULT IN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE AREA...AND SUBSEQUENTLY THEN EAST OF THE AREA AS
WELL...FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. INSTABILITY STILL SEEMS
LIMITED...BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
TO THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE...AND INDEED A LITTLE INSTABILITY
ON COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST. THE ECMWF DIGS THE MID-
LEVEL LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS WITH AMPLE VORTICITY
ADVECTION JUST TO OUR NORTH OVER VIRGINIA LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...MORE CLOUDS AND EVEN A SMALL CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH SUCH A VIGOROUS WAVE
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OUT TO THE
END OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES ARE QUITE CHILLY BY SUNDAY AT 12Z AND HAVE TRENDED
LOWER...SO IT CURRENTLY SEEMS LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME 40S FOR LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM THE TRIANGLE WEST AND NORTH...AND
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE SUNDAY NIGHT. -DJF

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT CENTRAL NC TAF
SITES... WITH A FEW BRIEF EXCEPTIONS. RWI IS SEEING ISOLATED POCKETS
OF SHALLOW DENSE FOG DRIFT NEAR THE AIRFIELD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS... CAUSING WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS FROM VFR DOWN TO LIFR
(OVERNIGHT OBSERVATIONS HAVE DIPPED AS LOW AS 1/2 MI AND 200 FT CIGS
BEFORE RETURNING TO MVFR OR VFR) AT THAT SITE. THIS ADVERSE AVIATION
WEATHER SHOULD END BEFORE 14Z. OTHERWISE... A THICK DECK OF MID
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING... WITH
CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER BELOW 5 000 FT AGL BY MID MORNING (GSO/INT)
OR THE NOON HOUR (RDU/RWI/FAY) ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH. THESE LOWERING CIGS WILL COINCIDE
WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN THAT WILL EXPAND OVER THE AREA FROM SW TO
NE... SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH TODAY WHILE
DECREASING IN COVERAGE TO BECOME VERY LIGHT/PATCHY. BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS LIGHT RAIN... MAINLY NEAR GSO/INT... BUT
OVERALL VFR VSBYS SHOULD STILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT... MAINLY CALM THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN LIGHT/VARIABLE
UNDER 6 KTS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. ONCE THE VEIL OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EXITS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES... WITH
WINDS STAYING VERY LIGHT... CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR POSSIBLE SHALLOW
LIFR STRATUS/FOG BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z TUE MORNING... HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH BASED ON DIFFERING COMPUTER MODEL SOLUTIONS. IF
IT OCCURS... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID MORNING TUE.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z TUE MORNING...  MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE
AND AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FRI...
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RISING SHOWER CHANCES
STARTING FRI. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 291054
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF TODAY... CROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT... AND THEN
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

AS ALLUDED TO BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS AND SUPPORTED BY OBSERVED AND
MODEL TRENDS... THIS INCOMING PRECIP EVENT IS SHAPING UP TO BE ONE
CHARACTERIZED BY OVERALL LOW QPF AND MODEST COVERAGE... DECREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL
ZONE FROM THE GULF COAST ACROSS NRN FL AND OFF THE SE COAST... AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERING INTERIOR NC/VA. A BAGGY POSITIVELY-
TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL PUSH EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL NC TODAY... BRINGING WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA. IN FACT...
THE VAST MAJORITY OF FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM 700
MB TO 500 MB... A RESULT OF A VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD BELOW 700 MB
MINIMIZING LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE. MODELS AGREE ON THE PRIME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT HOLDING SOUTH AND SE OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH
TONIGHT... WITH NONEXISTENT LOW LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...
ALL LEADING TO FAIRLY HIGH CLOUD BASES AND LOW QPF DESPITE PW VALUES
SURGING UP TOWARD 1.5 INCHES. THE LATEST WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM AND HRRR
RUNS SUPPORT THIS WEAKENING TREND WITH 700-500 MB TROUGH PASSAGE.
WILL HOLD POPS AT GOOD CHANCE/LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA... DUE TO THE
TROUGH ALOFT AND DECENT 40-50 M HEIGHT FALLS... BUT QPF SHOULD BE
UNDER A QUARTER INCH (AND MAY BE JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN MANY
SPOTS). WITH ANY RAIN EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER AND OF SHORTER
DURATION... TEMPS SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO WARM UP A BIT MORE THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT... ALTHOUGH THE MID CLOUD DECK LOOKS TO BE THICK
ENOUGH TO GREATLY CURB SOLAR INSOLATION. WILL KEEP HIGHS ON THE LOW
END OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE... 70-75 UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...
WITH THE COOLER READINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE CLOUDS AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED NEAR THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DROP FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE FORCING BEGINS TO EXIT. THE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE
POST-TROUGH... BUT THIS COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS COULD
SET THE STAGE FOR SHALLOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
MODELS DON`T AGREE ON THIS AT ALL... SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...
BUT WILL INDICATE A TREND FROM FAIR BACK UP TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATE.
LOWS 55-60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

EXPECT A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO SPAN THE REGION. DESPITE THE
WEAK LOW TRACKING NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST... THE NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A MOSTLY DRY COLUMN... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE
LOW IS WELL OFFSHORE AND NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO STRENGTHEN THE NE
SURFACE WINDS OVER CENTRAL NC. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...
TEMPS SHOULD RISE NICELY TO PEAK WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80...
STILL ON THE LOW END OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE BUT FOLLOWING ITS TREND
AS WELL AS WARMING THICKNESSES. THE POWERFUL TROUGH NOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ONTARIO DROPS SOUTH THEN SE ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC REGION
TUE NIGHT... WHICH SHOULD BRING A SHOT OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
THE NRN AND ERN CWA LATE TUE NIGHT... CORRESPONDING TO MODELS WHICH
SHOW A SUBTLE RESURGENCE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX. WILL BRING IN A
FEW MORE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST... BUT NO
PRECIP CHANCES FOR NOW... AS THE COLUMN IS STILL PROJECTED TO BE TOO
DRY AND THE LIFT TOO WEAK. LOWS 56-60. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY MOVES OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS HEIGHTS
SLOWLY RISE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
WITH THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF 850MB
THETA-E FORECAST BY THE GFS...AND WEAK 850MB LIFT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE GFS FORECASTS DECENT 850MB DIVERGENCE
AND WEAK CONFLUENCE ALOFT. THE MEAN AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY...
WITH BETTER MOISTURE SEEMINGLY CONFINED TO AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL.
MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW...AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED TO ANY
DEEP CONVECTION. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...
WITH STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHICH
ARE SUFFICIENT TO GET PARCELS THROUGH THE CAP. AS SUCH...THE NAM
FORECASTS MINOR QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY THIS INSTABILITY SEEMS OVERDONE. WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS HEIGHTS START TO RISE ALOFT...AND
IN DEFERENCE TO THE DRY GFS WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF. MOS
GUIDANCE HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE IN LINE WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES...
SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER TO MID 80S. WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NEARBY...
ALBEIT WEAK...MAY LEAN ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER ON AVERAGE. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT 59 TO 63.

FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANY WEAK LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. BOTH THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF FORECAST MINOR QPF OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WHICH HAS
OCCURRED OFF AND ON THE LAST FEW OF THESE MODEL RUNS. COARSE MODEL
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SOME
DEGREE...BUT A CAPPED AIR MASS IN GENERAL WITH PARCELS POSSIBLY ABLE
TO REACH BETWEEN -10C AND -15C IN THE MOST UNSTABLE SCENARIO BEFORE
REACHING THE CAP. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE...GIVEN THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT...FOR NOW
WILL RETAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

THE TREND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TO SPEED UP THE APPROACH
OF AN ELONGATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DIGGING MID-
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE FRONTAL ORIENTATION IS
POSITIVE...A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT TO THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF COULD RESULT IN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE AREA...AND SUBSEQUENTLY THEN EAST OF THE AREA AS
WELL...FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. INSTABILITY STILL SEEMS
LIMITED...BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
TO THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE...AND INDEED A LITTLE INSTABILITY
ON COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST. THE ECMWF DIGS THE MID-
LEVEL LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS WITH AMPLE VORTICITY
ADVECTION JUST TO OUR NORTH OVER VIRGINIA LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...MORE CLOUDS AND EVEN A SMALL CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH SUCH A VIGOROUS WAVE
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OUT TO THE
END OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES ARE QUITE CHILLY BY SUNDAY AT 12Z AND HAVE TRENDED
LOWER...SO IT CURRENTLY SEEMS LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME 40S FOR LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM THE TRIANGLE WEST AND NORTH...AND
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE SUNDAY NIGHT. -DJF

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT CENTRAL NC TAF
SITES... WITH A FEW BRIEF EXCEPTIONS. RWI IS SEEING ISOLATED POCKETS
OF SHALLOW DENSE FOG DRIFT NEAR THE AIRFIELD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS... CAUSING WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS FROM VFR DOWN TO LIFR
(OVERNIGHT OBSERVATIONS HAVE DIPPED AS LOW AS 1/2 MI AND 200 FT CIGS
BEFORE RETURNING TO MVFR OR VFR) AT THAT SITE. THIS ADVERSE AVIATION
WEATHER SHOULD END BEFORE 14Z. OTHERWISE... A THICK DECK OF MID
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING... WITH
CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER BELOW 5 000 FT AGL BY MID MORNING (GSO/INT)
OR THE NOON HOUR (RDU/RWI/FAY) ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH. THESE LOWERING CIGS WILL COINCIDE
WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN THAT WILL EXPAND OVER THE AREA FROM SW TO
NE... SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH TODAY WHILE
DECREASING IN COVERAGE TO BECOME VERY LIGHT/PATCHY. BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS LIGHT RAIN... MAINLY NEAR GSO/INT... BUT
OVERALL VFR VSBYS SHOULD STILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT... MAINLY CALM THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN LIGHT/VARIABLE
UNDER 6 KTS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. ONCE THE VEIL OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
EXITS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES... WITH
WINDS STAYING VERY LIGHT... CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR POSSIBLE SHALLOW
LIFR STRATUS/FOG BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z TUE MORNING... HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH BASED ON DIFFERING COMPUTER MODEL SOLUTIONS. IF
IT OCCURS... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID MORNING TUE.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z TUE MORNING...  MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE
AND AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FRI...
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RISING SHOWER CHANCES
STARTING FRI. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 290718
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF TODAY... CROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT... AND THEN
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

AS ALLUDED TO BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS AND SUPPORTED BY OBSERVED AND
MODEL TRENDS... THIS INCOMING PRECIP EVENT IS SHAPING UP TO BE ONE
CHARACTERIZED BY OVERALL LOW QPF AND MODEST COVERAGE... DECREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST. THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL
ZONE FROM THE GULF COAST ACROSS NRN FL AND OFF THE SE COAST... AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERING INTERIOR NC/VA. A BAGGY POSITIVELY-
TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL PUSH EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL NC TODAY... BRINGING WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA. IN FACT...
THE VAST MAJORITY OF FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM 700
MB TO 500 MB... A RESULT OF A VERY LIGHT WIND FIELD BELOW 700 MB
MINIMIZING LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE. MODELS AGREE ON THE PRIME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT HOLDING SOUTH AND SE OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH
TONIGHT... WITH NONEXISTENT LOW LEVEL MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...
ALL LEADING TO FAIRLY HIGH CLOUD BASES AND LOW QPF DESPITE PW VALUES
SURGING UP TOWARD 1.5 INCHES. THE LATEST WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM AND HRRR
RUNS SUPPORT THIS WEAKENING TREND WITH 700-500 MB TROUGH PASSAGE.
WILL HOLD POPS AT GOOD CHANCE/LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA... DUE TO THE
TROUGH ALOFT AND DECENT 40-50 M HEIGHT FALLS... BUT QPF SHOULD BE
UNDER A QUARTER INCH (AND MAY BE JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN MANY
SPOTS). WITH ANY RAIN EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER AND OF SHORTER
DURATION... TEMPS SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO WARM UP A BIT MORE THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT... ALTHOUGH THE MID CLOUD DECK LOOKS TO BE THICK
ENOUGH TO GREATLY CURB SOLAR INSOLATION. WILL KEEP HIGHS ON THE LOW
END OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE... 70-75 UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...
WITH THE COOLER READINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CWA WHERE CLOUDS AND
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED NEAR THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DROP FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE FORCING BEGINS TO EXIT. THE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD MOSTLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE
POST-TROUGH... BUT THIS COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS COULD
SET THE STAGE FOR SHALLOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
MODELS DON`T AGREE ON THIS AT ALL... SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...
BUT WILL INDICATE A TREND FROM FAIR BACK UP TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATE.
LOWS 55-60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

EXPECT A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO SPAN THE REGION. DESPITE THE
WEAK LOW TRACKING NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST... THE NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A MOSTLY DRY COLUMN... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE
LOW IS WELL OFFSHORE AND NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO STRENGTHEN THE NE
SURFACE WINDS OVER CENTRAL NC. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...
TEMPS SHOULD RISE NICELY TO PEAK WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 80...
STILL ON THE LOW END OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE BUT FOLLOWING ITS TREND
AS WELL AS WARMING THICKNESSES. THE POWERFUL TROUGH NOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ONTARIO DROPS SOUTH THEN SE ACROSS THE MIDATLANTIC REGION
TUE NIGHT... WHICH SHOULD BRING A SHOT OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
THE NRN AND ERN CWA LATE TUE NIGHT... CORRESPONDING TO MODELS WHICH
SHOW A SUBTLE RESURGENCE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX. WILL BRING IN A
FEW MORE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST... BUT NO
PRECIP CHANCES FOR NOW... AS THE COLUMN IS STILL PROJECTED TO BE TOO
DRY AND THE LIFT TOO WEAK. LOWS 56-60. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY MOVES OFF OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS HEIGHTS
SLOWLY RISE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
WITH THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF 850MB
THETA-E FORECAST BY THE GFS...AND WEAK 850MB LIFT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE GFS FORECASTS DECENT 850MB DIVERGENCE
AND WEAK CONFLUENCE ALOFT. THE MEAN AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY DRY...
WITH BETTER MOISTURE SEEMINGLY CONFINED TO AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL.
MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW...AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED TO ANY
DEEP CONVECTION. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...
WITH STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY WHICH
ARE SUFFICIENT TO GET PARCELS THROUGH THE CAP. AS SUCH...THE NAM
FORECASTS MINOR QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY THIS INSTABILITY SEEMS OVERDONE. WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS HEIGHTS START TO RISE ALOFT...AND
IN DEFERENCE TO THE DRY GFS WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF. MOS
GUIDANCE HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE IN LINE WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES...
SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER TO MID 80S. WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NEARBY...
ALBEIT WEAK...MAY LEAN ABOUT A CATEGORY COOLER ON AVERAGE. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT 59 TO 63.

FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANY WEAK LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. BOTH THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF FORECAST MINOR QPF OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WHICH HAS
OCCURRED OFF AND ON THE LAST FEW OF THESE MODEL RUNS. COARSE MODEL
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SOME
DEGREE...BUT A CAPPED AIR MASS IN GENERAL WITH PARCELS POSSIBLY ABLE
TO REACH BETWEEN -10C AND -15C IN THE MOST UNSTABLE SCENARIO BEFORE
REACHING THE CAP. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE...GIVEN THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT...FOR NOW
WILL RETAIN THE DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

THE TREND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TO SPEED UP THE APPROACH
OF AN ELONGATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DIGGING MID-
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE FRONTAL ORIENTATION IS
POSITIVE...A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT TO THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF COULD RESULT IN SHOWERS
MOVING INTO THE AREA...AND SUBSEQUENTLY THEN EAST OF THE AREA AS
WELL...FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. INSTABILITY STILL SEEMS
LIMITED...BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT
TO THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE...AND INDEED A LITTLE INSTABILITY
ON COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST. THE ECMWF DIGS THE MID-
LEVEL LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS WITH AMPLE VORTICITY
ADVECTION JUST TO OUR NORTH OVER VIRGINIA LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...MORE CLOUDS AND EVEN A SMALL CHANCE
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH SUCH A VIGOROUS WAVE
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OUT TO THE
END OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES ARE QUITE CHILLY BY SUNDAY AT 12Z AND HAVE TRENDED
LOWER...SO IT CURRENTLY SEEMS LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME 40S FOR LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM THE TRIANGLE WEST AND NORTH...AND
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE SUNDAY NIGHT. -DJF

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT CENTRAL NC TAF
SITES... WITH A FEW BRIEF EXCEPTIONS. A THICK DECK OF MID CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING... WITH CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER BELOW 5 000 FT AGL BY MID MORNING (GSO/INT) OR THE
NOON HOUR (RDU/RWI/FAY) ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH. THESE LOWERING CIGS WILL COINCIDE WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN THAT WILL EXPAND OVER THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...
SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH TODAY WHILE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE TO BECOME VERY LIGHT/PATCHY. BRIEF MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THIS LIGHT RAIN... MAINLY NEAR GSO/INT... BUT OVERALL VFR VSBYS
SHOULD STILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...
MAINLY CALM THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN LIGHT/VARIABLE UNDER 6 KTS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY TUE MORNING... ONCE THE VEIL OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS EXITS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...
WITH WINDS STAYING VERY LIGHT... CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR POSSIBLE
SHALLOW LIFR STRATUS/FOG BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z TUE MORNING... HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH BASED ON DIFFERING COMPUTER MODEL SOLUTIONS. IF
IT OCCURS... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID MORNING TUE. MVFR
FOG IS POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE AND AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST FRI... BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
RISING SHOWER CHANCES STARTING FRI. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 290518
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
120 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF TODAY... CROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT... AND THEN
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...

MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH THIS LOW (AND BEST PRECIP
CHANCES) PROGGED TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING...AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED AND PERSISTED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR
FROM ATLANTA TO CHARLOTTE...AND THE LATEST HRRR HAS A FAIRLY GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SPREAD
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN PRECIP FREE THROUGH DAYBREAK. REGARDLESS... ANY PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE AREA IS REMOVED FROM THE BEST FORCING.

WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS...EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS OVER THE SOUTH/WEST
WILL RESULT IN MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS (LOW TO MID 60S) COMPARED TO
THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER (AT LEAST EARLY ON
IN THE NIGHT) MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
DEGREES BEFORE THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER MOVES EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF COAST/SE U.S.
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST MONDAY
AND DRIFT OFF THE GA COAST MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...MOST OF THE LIFT TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE PRECIP OVER
CENTRAL NC WILL BE MAINLY GENERATED FROM LIFTING ALOFT...YIELDING TO
LIGHTER PRECIP AMOUNTS. THUS WHAT WAS LOOKING TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC A FEW DAYS AGO IS NOW LOOKING
MUCH WEAKER. EXPECT PATCHES OF PRECIP TO BREAK OUT IN THE
MORNING...BECOMING LIKELY GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64 BY MIDDAY.
HAVE DECREASED EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BASED ON LATEST GFS/HPC
GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDS STORM TOTALS RANGING FROM LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF AN INCH NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64...AND A LITTLE MORE THAN A HALF INCH
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SINCE PRECIP EXPECT TO BE LIGHT/SPOTTY...IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY
THAT A HYBRID/IN-SITU CAD WILL SET-UP. THUS...TEMPS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT BUT STILL
ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES BELOW MOS. IF PRECIP FAILS TO
MATERIALIZE...MAX TEMPS IN THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE AREAS MAY END UP
BEING 3-4 DEGREES WARMER. CURRENTLY...WILL HAVE MAX TEMPS WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF 70 EXCEPT OVER TEH FAR NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
LOW-MID 70S MAY OCCUR.

MONDAY NIGHT...PRECIP STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE
WEST-NW AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES AND EXITS THE REGION.
RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE SE COUNTIES WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SUNDAY...

FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE GUIDANCE TREND HAS
CONTINUED AND APPEARED TO ACCELERATE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL
RUNS OR SO...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY
MORNING...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH AND THEN
HEADS FROM NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST OUT TO SEA. THIS OCCURS AS
A MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC...AND AN EXTENSION OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS
SLIGHTLY AND MOVES OFFSHORE. THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
GFS...AND WITH BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ABOUT KIXA TO KFAY AND
EAST...WOULD HANG ON TO LOWER CLOUDS THERE TUESDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...
THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE BASICALLY SUBSIDENT FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
RELATIVELY LOW K INDICES AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT...AND VIRTUALLY NO
QPF. OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL VORTICITY ON THE 1.5PVU SURFACE...BUT
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ONLY SUGGEST A PERIOD OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH
THESE FEATURES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY
TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 IN DEFERENCE TO THE
NAM...WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IF THE GFS
IS CORRECT...THE SKY FORECAST TUESDAY WILL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN
THIS FORECAST WILL SHOW ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. 1...WITH AN AVERAGE
PARTLY SUNNY DAY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

THE MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE ARE VERY CLOSE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND
ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTATIONS FROM 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES. THESE VALUES WOULD REPRESENT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY TREND HIGHER...NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS
THE MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS...ESSENTIALLY A BLEND OF ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
PACKAGES AVAILABLE BOTH COOL AND WARM FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS 56 TO 61 TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN HIGHS 75 TO 80
WEDNESDAY...COOLEST NORTHEAST WHERE THE CONSENSUS OF GFS AND NAM
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGESTS ANY HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE
DURING THE MORNING AND EXTEND INTO THE AFTERNOON KEEPING SOLAR
INSOLATION LOWER COMPARED TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT BRIEFLY FOR THURSDAY. DURING THIS TIME...BOTH THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF PROVIDE FOR WEAK QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND WHILE
COARSE SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH MODELS SUGGEST LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
SOME AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIFT SHOULD BE WEAK UNDER BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE. THE ECMWF DOES FORECAST A WEAK 700MB WAVE MOVING
THROUGH...SO IF ALL PARAMETERS COME TOGETHER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO COULD OCCUR...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...THE ECMWF
IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH LOW PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THE RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH RESULTS IN THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING FASTER
TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY VERY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED
TO THE GFS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SIMILAR...THOUGH...PUSHING THE
FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. WHILE
COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY UNSTABLE...THE STRENGTH OF THE
MID-LEVEL WAVE FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND THE JET AXIS ALOFT MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SOLID CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY A SHOWER LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY EAST
DEPENDING ON THE FRONTAL TIMING. AN ALTERNATIVE COULD BE FASTER
TIMING OF BOTH THE BEGINNING AND END OF PRECIPITATION IF THE GFS
TRENDS CONTINUE. DRY AND COOL SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO APPROACH...
OR EVEN FALL BELOW...50 DEGREES ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH OF THE
TRIANGLE WHERE 1000-850MB THICKNESSES...GRANTED OUT TO THE END OF
THE SIXTH DAY...WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST A FEW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT CENTRAL NC TAF
SITES... WITH A FEW BRIEF EXCEPTIONS. A THICK DECK OF MID CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING... WITH CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER BELOW 5 000 FT AGL BY MID MORNING (GSO/INT) OR THE
NOON HOUR (RDU/RWI/FAY) ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH. THESE LOWERING CIGS WILL COINCIDE WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN THAT WILL EXPAND OVER THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...
SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH TODAY WHILE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE TO BECOME VERY LIGHT/PATCHY. BRIEF MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THIS LIGHT RAIN... MAINLY NEAR GSO/INT... BUT OVERALL VFR VSBYS
SHOULD STILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...
MAINLY CALM THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN LIGHT/VARIABLE UNDER 6 KTS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY TUE MORNING... ONCE THE VEIL OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS EXITS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...
WITH WINDS STAYING VERY LIGHT... CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR POSSIBLE
SHALLOW LIFR STRATUS/FOG BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z TUE MORNING... HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH BASED ON DIFFERING COMPUTER MODEL SOLUTIONS. IF
IT OCCURS... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID MORNING TUE. MVFR
FOG IS POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE AND AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST FRI... BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
RISING SHOWER CHANCES STARTING FRI. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 290518
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
120 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF TODAY... CROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT... AND THEN
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...

MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH/WEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH THIS LOW (AND BEST PRECIP
CHANCES) PROGGED TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING...AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED AND PERSISTED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR
FROM ATLANTA TO CHARLOTTE...AND THE LATEST HRRR HAS A FAIRLY GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SPREAD
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN PRECIP FREE THROUGH DAYBREAK. REGARDLESS... ANY PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS THE AREA IS REMOVED FROM THE BEST FORCING.

WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS...EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS OVER THE SOUTH/WEST
WILL RESULT IN MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS (LOW TO MID 60S) COMPARED TO
THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER (AT LEAST EARLY ON
IN THE NIGHT) MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
DEGREES BEFORE THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER MOVES EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF COAST/SE U.S.
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST MONDAY
AND DRIFT OFF THE GA COAST MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...MOST OF THE LIFT TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE PRECIP OVER
CENTRAL NC WILL BE MAINLY GENERATED FROM LIFTING ALOFT...YIELDING TO
LIGHTER PRECIP AMOUNTS. THUS WHAT WAS LOOKING TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC A FEW DAYS AGO IS NOW LOOKING
MUCH WEAKER. EXPECT PATCHES OF PRECIP TO BREAK OUT IN THE
MORNING...BECOMING LIKELY GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64 BY MIDDAY.
HAVE DECREASED EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BASED ON LATEST GFS/HPC
GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDS STORM TOTALS RANGING FROM LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF AN INCH NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64...AND A LITTLE MORE THAN A HALF INCH
ACROSS THE SOUTH.

SINCE PRECIP EXPECT TO BE LIGHT/SPOTTY...IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY
THAT A HYBRID/IN-SITU CAD WILL SET-UP. THUS...TEMPS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT BUT STILL
ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES BELOW MOS. IF PRECIP FAILS TO
MATERIALIZE...MAX TEMPS IN THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE AREAS MAY END UP
BEING 3-4 DEGREES WARMER. CURRENTLY...WILL HAVE MAX TEMPS WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF 70 EXCEPT OVER TEH FAR NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
LOW-MID 70S MAY OCCUR.

MONDAY NIGHT...PRECIP STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE
WEST-NW AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES AND EXITS THE REGION.
RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE SE COUNTIES WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SUNDAY...

FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE GUIDANCE TREND HAS
CONTINUED AND APPEARED TO ACCELERATE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL
RUNS OR SO...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY
MORNING...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH AND THEN
HEADS FROM NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST OUT TO SEA. THIS OCCURS AS
A MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC...AND AN EXTENSION OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS
SLIGHTLY AND MOVES OFFSHORE. THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
GFS...AND WITH BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ABOUT KIXA TO KFAY AND
EAST...WOULD HANG ON TO LOWER CLOUDS THERE TUESDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...
THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE BASICALLY SUBSIDENT FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH
RELATIVELY LOW K INDICES AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT...AND VIRTUALLY NO
QPF. OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL VORTICITY ON THE 1.5PVU SURFACE...BUT
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ONLY SUGGEST A PERIOD OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH
THESE FEATURES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY
TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 IN DEFERENCE TO THE
NAM...WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IF THE GFS
IS CORRECT...THE SKY FORECAST TUESDAY WILL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN
THIS FORECAST WILL SHOW ESPECIALLY EAST OF U.S. 1...WITH AN AVERAGE
PARTLY SUNNY DAY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

THE MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE ARE VERY CLOSE FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AND
ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTATIONS FROM 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES. THESE VALUES WOULD REPRESENT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY TREND HIGHER...NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS
THE MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS...ESSENTIALLY A BLEND OF ALL OF THE GUIDANCE
PACKAGES AVAILABLE BOTH COOL AND WARM FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS 56 TO 61 TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN HIGHS 75 TO 80
WEDNESDAY...COOLEST NORTHEAST WHERE THE CONSENSUS OF GFS AND NAM
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGESTS ANY HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE
DURING THE MORNING AND EXTEND INTO THE AFTERNOON KEEPING SOLAR
INSOLATION LOWER COMPARED TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT BRIEFLY FOR THURSDAY. DURING THIS TIME...BOTH THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF PROVIDE FOR WEAK QPF IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND WHILE
COARSE SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH MODELS SUGGEST LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
SOME AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIFT SHOULD BE WEAK UNDER BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE. THE ECMWF DOES FORECAST A WEAK 700MB WAVE MOVING
THROUGH...SO IF ALL PARAMETERS COME TOGETHER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO COULD OCCUR...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...THE ECMWF
IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH LOW PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THE RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH RESULTS IN THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING FASTER
TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY VERY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED
TO THE GFS. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SIMILAR...THOUGH...PUSHING THE
FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. WHILE
COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY UNSTABLE...THE STRENGTH OF THE
MID-LEVEL WAVE FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND THE JET AXIS ALOFT MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. A SMALL CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A SOLID CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY A SHOWER LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY EAST
DEPENDING ON THE FRONTAL TIMING. AN ALTERNATIVE COULD BE FASTER
TIMING OF BOTH THE BEGINNING AND END OF PRECIPITATION IF THE GFS
TRENDS CONTINUE. DRY AND COOL SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO APPROACH...
OR EVEN FALL BELOW...50 DEGREES ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTH OF THE
TRIANGLE WHERE 1000-850MB THICKNESSES...GRANTED OUT TO THE END OF
THE SIXTH DAY...WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST A FEW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT CENTRAL NC TAF
SITES... WITH A FEW BRIEF EXCEPTIONS. A THICK DECK OF MID CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING... WITH CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER BELOW 5 000 FT AGL BY MID MORNING (GSO/INT) OR THE
NOON HOUR (RDU/RWI/FAY) ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH. THESE LOWERING CIGS WILL COINCIDE WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN THAT WILL EXPAND OVER THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...
SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH TODAY WHILE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE TO BECOME VERY LIGHT/PATCHY. BRIEF MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THIS LIGHT RAIN... MAINLY NEAR GSO/INT... BUT OVERALL VFR VSBYS
SHOULD STILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...
MAINLY CALM THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN LIGHT/VARIABLE UNDER 6 KTS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY TUE MORNING... ONCE THE VEIL OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS EXITS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...
WITH WINDS STAYING VERY LIGHT... CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR POSSIBLE
SHALLOW LIFR STRATUS/FOG BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z TUE MORNING... HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH BASED ON DIFFERING COMPUTER MODEL SOLUTIONS. IF
IT OCCURS... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID MORNING TUE. MVFR
FOG IS POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE AND AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST FRI... BRINGING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
RISING SHOWER CHANCES STARTING FRI. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





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