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000
FXUS62 KRAH 250110
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
910 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 910 PM FRIDAY...

WELL DEFINED S/W CROSSING SC EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS APPEAR TO BE
VERIFYING A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST (TOO SLOW) PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
LOOP. THIS FEATURE PROJECTED TO DRIFT SEWD OVERNIGHT. THIS PLACES
THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IMMEDIATELY TO
OUR SE.

IR SATELLITE LOOP DEPICTS CIRRUS SHIELD GRADUALLY THINNING THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WHICH MAKES SENSE AS UPPER DIVERGENCE BEGINS TO WANE. AS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DRIFTS SEWD AWAY FROM OUR REGION...EXPECT THIS
DECREASING CLOUDINESS TREND TO CONTINUE.

UNDER CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND REGIME...TEMPS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO COOL. EXPECT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40-45 DEGREE
RANGE BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH UPPER 30S HIGHLY PROBABLE AT THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT
WILL EXIT OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING. MODEST
SUBSIDENCE AND H5 HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL
REINFORCE THE DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...
MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES WITH ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAK WARM
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON SAT A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...AROUND 72-75F. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
LOW DIGS RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z SUN.
THE MSLP GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS
SAT NIGHT...MAINTAINING A WESTERLY BREEZE AT 5-10 KT. AS A RESULT...
FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE ACHIEVED...AND LOWS WILL MOST
LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW/MID 50S IN THE ABSENCE OF A 1-3 HR
PERIOD OF CALM WINDS. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 302 PM FRIDAY...

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THEN A BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD BRING CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SE
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR FRIDAY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A MEAN
WESTERLY FLOW MEAN DRYING AND WARMING FOR CENTRAL NC. HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH OR SURPASS 80 OVER THE SANDHILLS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY... THEN SHOULD MAX
OUT TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY SOME MID 80S. THESE READINGS
SHOULD BE CLOSE... BUT NOT QUITE AT THE DAILY RECORDS FOR OCTOBER
28... WHICH ARE 86... 86... AND 87 AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY (ALL
RECORDED IN 1919.

SLIGHT COOLING WILL BEGIN MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD STILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY 80 AGAIN IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE ZONES WEDNESDAY WITH THE SW FLOW AT 10-15 MPH.
THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NNE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE "BACKDOOR" FRONT. CAUTION IS
ADVISED ON THE EXTENT SOUTHWARD THAT THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT GIVEN
THE MODEL FORECASTS OF A FAIRLY "WEAK` SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO PUSH
THE FRONT SOUTHWARD... DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CURRENT
PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT MAY STALL WEST TO EAST ACROSS NC...
AND THIS MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH IF THE CURRENT MODELS VERIFY WITH THE
LACK OF PUSH OF CAA WITH THE 1016-1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

REGARDLESS... THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
RAIN ALONG THIS FRONT... AND IT SHOULD RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD
QUICKLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT AS A NEW STORM TRACKS NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS MEAN STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT SE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NC LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER... ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONT WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK
WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. A PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR SHOULD
FOLLOW THE FRONT... BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL EVEN BEHIND
THIS FRONT AS THE COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL NOT GET PUSHED TO OUR
LATITUDE YET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 714 PM FRIDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE
AREA...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 4-8 KTS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. -KC

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERSISTENTLY BENIGN SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
-VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KC/VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 242314
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
714 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT AND PROGRESS OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. RAOB DATA INDICATES A PROFOUNDLY DRY/STABLE AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...A RESIDUAL EFFECT OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE
THAT OCCURRED ON THURSDAY. WITH LARGE STATIC STABILITY... DPVA
ASSOC/W THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BE CONFINED
ALMOST ENTIRELY TO THE UPPER LEVELS (H3-H5)...AS EVIDENCED BY RAPID
COOLING/MOISTENING IN THE H3-H5 LAYER FROM 00Z TO 12Z TODAY ON THE
GSO RAOB.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH CIRRUS (CEILINGS 18-25 KFT) ATTENDANT THE
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE ALTITUDE
AT WHICH THESE CEILINGS ARE PRESENT...IN ADDITION TO VARYING DEGREES
OF OPACITY...ANTICIPATE LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS SIMILAR THOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND LOWS SIMILAR
TO THIS MORNING...BOTH NEAR `AVERAGE` FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
GENERALLY 40-45. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT
WILL EXIT OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING. MODEST
SUBSIDENCE AND H5 HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL
REINFORCE THE DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...
MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES WITH ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAK WARM
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON SAT A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...AROUND 72-75F. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
LOW DIGS RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z SUN.
THE MSLP GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS
SAT NIGHT...MAINTAINING A WESTERLY BREEZE AT 5-10 KT. AS A RESULT...
FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE ACHIEVED...AND LOWS WILL MOST
LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW/MID 50S IN THE ABSENCE OF A 1-3 HR
PERIOD OF CALM WINDS. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 302 PM FRIDAY...

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THEN A BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD BRING CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SE
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR FRIDAY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A MEAN
WESTERLY FLOW MEAN DRYING AND WARMING FOR CENTRAL NC. HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH OR SURPASS 80 OVER THE SANDHILLS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY... THEN SHOULD MAX
OUT TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY SOME MID 80S. THESE READINGS
SHOULD BE CLOSE... BUT NOT QUITE AT THE DAILY RECORDS FOR OCTOBER
28... WHICH ARE 86... 86... AND 87 AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY (ALL
RECORDED IN 1919.

SLIGHT COOLING WILL BEGIN MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD STILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY 80 AGAIN IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE ZONES WEDNESDAY WITH THE SW FLOW AT 10-15 MPH.
THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NNE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE "BACKDOOR" FRONT. CAUTION IS
ADVISED ON THE EXTENT SOUTHWARD THAT THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT GIVEN
THE MODEL FORECASTS OF A FAIRLY "WEAK` SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO PUSH
THE FRONT SOUTHWARD... DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CURRENT
PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT MAY STALL WEST TO EAST ACROSS NC...
AND THIS MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH IF THE CURRENT MODELS VERIFY WITH THE
LACK OF PUSH OF CAA WITH THE 1016-1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

REGARDLESS... THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
RAIN ALONG THIS FRONT... AND IT SHOULD RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD
QUICKLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT AS A NEW STORM TRACKS NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS MEAN STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT SE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NC LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER... ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONT WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK
WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. A PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR SHOULD
FOLLOW THE FRONT... BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL EVEN BEHIND
THIS FRONT AS THE COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL NOT GET PUSHED TO OUR
LATITUDE YET.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 714 PM FRIDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE
AREA...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 4-8 KTS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. -KC

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PERSISTENTLY BENIGN SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
-VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KC/VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 241902
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
302 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT AND PROGRESS OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. RAOB DATA INDICATES A PROFOUNDLY DRY/STABLE AIR MASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...A RESIDUAL EFFECT OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE
THAT OCCURRED ON THURSDAY. WITH LARGE STATIC STABILITY... DPVA
ASSOC/W THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BE CONFINED
ALMOST ENTIRELY TO THE UPPER LEVELS (H3-H5)...AS EVIDENCED BY RAPID
COOLING/MOISTENING IN THE H3-H5 LAYER FROM 00Z TO 12Z TODAY ON THE
GSO RAOB.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH CIRRUS (CEILINGS 18-25 KFT) ATTENDANT THE
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE ALTITUDE
AT WHICH THESE CEILINGS ARE PRESENT...IN ADDITION TO VARYING DEGREES
OF OPACITY...ANTICIPATE LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS SIMILAR THOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND LOWS SIMILAR
TO THIS MORNING...BOTH NEAR `AVERAGE` FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
GENERALLY 40-45. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT
WILL EXIT OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING. MODEST
SUBSIDENCE AND H5 HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL
REINFORCE THE DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...
MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES WITH ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAK WARM
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON SAT A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...AROUND 72-75F. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
LOW DIGS RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z SUN.
THE MSLP GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS
SAT NIGHT...MAINTAINING A WESTERLY BREEZE AT 5-10 KT. AS A RESULT...
FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE ACHIEVED...AND LOWS WILL MOST
LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW/MID 50S IN THE ABSENCE OF A 1-3 HR
PERIOD OF CALM WINDS. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 302 PM FRIDAY...

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THEN A BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD BRING CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SE
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER AIR FRIDAY.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A MEAN
WESTERLY FLOW MEAN DRYING AND WARMING FOR CENTRAL NC. HIGHS SHOULD
PUSH OR SURPASS 80 OVER THE SANDHILLS AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY... THEN SHOULD MAX
OUT TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY SOME MID 80S. THESE READINGS
SHOULD BE CLOSE... BUT NOT QUITE AT THE DAILY RECORDS FOR OCTOBER
28... WHICH ARE 86... 86... AND 87 AT GSO... RDU... AND FAY (ALL
RECORDED IN 1919.

SLIGHT COOLING WILL BEGIN MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS
SHOULD STILL REACH WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY 80 AGAIN IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE ZONES WEDNESDAY WITH THE SW FLOW AT 10-15 MPH.
THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NNE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE "BACKDOOR" FRONT. CAUTION IS
ADVISED ON THE EXTENT SOUTHWARD THAT THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT GIVEN
THE MODEL FORECASTS OF A FAIRLY "WEAK` SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO PUSH
THE FRONT SOUTHWARD... DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CURRENT
PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT MAY STALL WEST TO EAST ACROSS NC...
AND THIS MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH IF THE CURRENT MODELS VERIFY WITH THE
LACK OF PUSH OF CAA WITH THE 1016-1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

REGARDLESS... THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
RAIN ALONG THIS FRONT... AND IT SHOULD RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD
QUICKLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT AS A NEW STORM TRACKS NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS MEAN STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT SE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NC LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER... ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONT WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK
WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. A PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR SHOULD
FOLLOW THE FRONT... BUT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL EVEN BEHIND
THIS FRONT AS THE COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL NOT GET PUSHED TO OUR
LATITUDE YET.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (ASIDE FROM
CIRRUS WITH CEILINGS 18-25 KFT) WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
WSW AT 5-8 KT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOC/W A PERSISTENTLY BENIGN SYNOPTIC PATTERN. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 241635
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1235 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 PM FRIDAY...

AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT AND PROGRESS OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. 12Z RAOB DATA INDICATES A PROFOUNDLY DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...A RESIDUAL EFFECT OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE THAT OCCURRED ON THURSDAY. WITH LARGE STATIC STABILITY...
DPVA ASSOC/W THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BE
CONFINED ALMOST ENTIRELY TO THE UPPER LEVELS (H3-H5)...AS EVIDENCED
BY RAPID COOLING/MOISTENING IN THE H3-H5 LAYER FROM 00Z TO 12Z TODAY
ON THE GSO RAOB.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH CIRRUS (CEILINGS 18-25 KFT) ATTENDANT THE
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE ALTITUDE
AT WHICH THESE CEILINGS ARE PRESENT...IN ADDITION TO VARYING DEGREES
OF OPACITY...ANTICIPATE LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS SIMILAR THOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND LOWS SIMILAR
TO THIS MORNING...BOTH NEAR `AVERAGE` FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT
WILL EXIT OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING. MODEST
SUBSIDENCE AND H5 HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL
REINFORCE THE DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...
MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES WITH ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAK WARM
ADVECTION DURING THE DAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON SAT A
FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...AROUND 72-75F. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
LOW DIGS RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z SUN.
THE MSLP GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS
SAT NIGHT...MAINTAINING A WESTERLY BREEZE AT 5-10 KT. AS A RESULT...
FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE ACHIEVED...AND LOWS WILL MOST
LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW/MID 50S IN THE ABSENCE OF A 1-3 HR
PERIOD OF CALM WINDS. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

AN UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT...WITH PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW TO MAINTAIN
OUR MILD AIRMASS. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A DRY FRONT
WILL BARELY GRAZE THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY...AND WILL BE OFFSET BY
INCREASINGLY WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONG INSOLATION. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LOWER 70S NORTHEAST SUNDAY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA REACHING MID
70S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH IS 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...WITH A CORRESPONDING BUMP IN
MORNING MINS INTO THE LOW 50S.

OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE DELAYED AS IT ALIGNS PARALLEL TO
WESTERLY FLOW AND ACTUAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE IN THE FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. MOISTURE ADVECTION THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE...AND
WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS
AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MAY INHIBIT WARMUP A BIT...NEAR 70 NORTH
TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (ASIDE FROM
CIRRUS WITH CEILINGS 18-25 KFT) WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
WSW AT 5-8 KT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOC/W A PERSISTENTLY BENIGN SYNOPTIC PATTERN. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 241439
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1039 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...

AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT AND PROGRESS OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. 12Z RAOB DATA INDICATES A PROFOUNDLY DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...A RESIDUAL EFFECT OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE THAT OCCURRED ON THURSDAY. WITH LARGE STATIC STABILITY...
DPVA ASSOC/W THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BE
CONFINED ALMOST ENTIRELY TO THE UPPER LEVELS (H3-H5)...AS EVIDENCED
BY RAPID COOLING/MOISTENING IN THE H3-H5 LAYER FROM 00Z TO 12Z TODAY
ON THE GSO RAOB.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH CIRRUS (CEILINGS 18-25 KFT) ATTENDANT THE
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE ALTITUDE
AT WHICH THESE CEILINGS ARE PRESENT...IN ADDITION TO VARYING DEGREES
OF OPACITY...ANTICIPATE LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS SIMILAR THOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND LOWS SIMILAR
TO THIS MORNING...BOTH NEAR `AVERAGE` FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...

CONTINUED TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR SW WILL EXTEND
NORTHEAST INTO NC... ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING THROUGH NRN/WRN
NC WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE BASE OF THE VORTEX DROPPING THROUGH
SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. BUT DRY/STABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS SUPPORT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS... SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 70S. LOWS WILL BE MILDER SAT NIGHT... 45-50... AS A TIGHTER
MSLP GRADIENT KEEPS THE LOW LEVELS SLIGHTLY STIRRED OVERNIGHT. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

AN UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT...WITH PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW TO MAINTAIN
OUR MILD AIRMASS. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A DRY FRONT
WILL BARELY GRAZE THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY...AND WILL BE OFFSET BY
INCREASINGLY WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONG INSOLATION. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LOWER 70S NORTHEAST SUNDAY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA REACHING MID
70S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH IS 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...WITH A CORRESPONDING BUMP IN
MORNING MINS INTO THE LOW 50S.

OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE DELAYED AS IT ALIGNS PARALLEL TO
WESTERLY FLOW AND ACTUAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE IN THE FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. MOISTURE ADVECTION THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE...AND
WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS
AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MAY INHIBIT WARMUP A BIT...NEAR 70 NORTH
TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (ASIDE FROM
CIRRUS WITH CEILINGS 18-25 KFT) WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
WSW AT 5-8 KT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOC/W A PERSISTENTLY BENIGN SYNOPTIC PATTERN. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 241439
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1039 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
EAST COAST SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...

AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT AND PROGRESS OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. 12Z RAOB DATA INDICATES A PROFOUNDLY DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...A RESIDUAL EFFECT OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE THAT OCCURRED ON THURSDAY. WITH LARGE STATIC STABILITY...
DPVA ASSOC/W THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING THE REGION WILL BE
CONFINED ALMOST ENTIRELY TO THE UPPER LEVELS (H3-H5)...AS EVIDENCED
BY RAPID COOLING/MOISTENING IN THE H3-H5 LAYER FROM 00Z TO 12Z TODAY
ON THE GSO RAOB.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH CIRRUS (CEILINGS 18-25 KFT) ATTENDANT THE
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE ALTITUDE
AT WHICH THESE CEILINGS ARE PRESENT...IN ADDITION TO VARYING DEGREES
OF OPACITY...ANTICIPATE LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS SIMILAR THOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND LOWS SIMILAR
TO THIS MORNING...BOTH NEAR `AVERAGE` FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...

CONTINUED TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR SW WILL EXTEND
NORTHEAST INTO NC... ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING THROUGH NRN/WRN
NC WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE BASE OF THE VORTEX DROPPING THROUGH
SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. BUT DRY/STABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS SUPPORT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS... SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 70S. LOWS WILL BE MILDER SAT NIGHT... 45-50... AS A TIGHTER
MSLP GRADIENT KEEPS THE LOW LEVELS SLIGHTLY STIRRED OVERNIGHT. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

AN UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT...WITH PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW TO MAINTAIN
OUR MILD AIRMASS. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A DRY FRONT
WILL BARELY GRAZE THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY...AND WILL BE OFFSET BY
INCREASINGLY WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONG INSOLATION. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LOWER 70S NORTHEAST SUNDAY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA REACHING MID
70S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH IS 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...WITH A CORRESPONDING BUMP IN
MORNING MINS INTO THE LOW 50S.

OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE DELAYED AS IT ALIGNS PARALLEL TO
WESTERLY FLOW AND ACTUAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE IN THE FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. MOISTURE ADVECTION THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE...AND
WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS
AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MAY INHIBIT WARMUP A BIT...NEAR 70 NORTH
TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (ASIDE FROM
CIRRUS WITH CEILINGS 18-25 KFT) WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
WSW AT 5-8 KT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK IN ASSOC/W A PERSISTENTLY BENIGN SYNOPTIC PATTERN. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 241128
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
725 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT... AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. AT THE SURFACE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STRONG LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND ON OUR WEATHER IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS
THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM NC... LEAVING A VERY WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS SEPARATING TWO WEAK RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN FROM THE SW TODAY. ALOFT... THE COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL KY/TN TO MS/AL AND A STRONG
VORTICITY CENTER NEAR CHICAGO WILL BRING PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD AS THESE FEATURES TRACK ESE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE EXPECTED FAIR SKIES WILL STILL ALLOW FOR MILKY
INSOLATION... PUSHING TEMPS UP TO MAXES OF 70-73... CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS FOLLOWING FORECAST THICKNESSES. IN THE WAKE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT... THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEPART...
LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT MAINLY NORTH WINDS AS THE SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER W TX AND LA BUILDS STRONGLY TO THE NE TOWARD THE
SRN APPALACHIANS. LOWS TONIGHT 39-45... ON THE LOW END OF
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WITH EXPECTATIONS OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...

CONTINUED TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR SW WILL EXTEND
NORTHEAST INTO NC... ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING THROUGH NRN/WRN
NC WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE BASE OF THE VORTEX DROPPING THROUGH
SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. BUT DRY/STABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS SUPPORT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS... SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 70S. LOWS WILL BE MILDER SAT NIGHT... 45-50... AS A TIGHTER
MSLP GRADIENT KEEPS THE LOW LEVELS SLIGHTLY STIRRED OVERNIGHT. -GIH

&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

AN UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT...WITH PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW TO MAINTAIN
OUR MILD AIRMASS. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A DRY FRONT
WILL BARELY GRAZE THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY...AND WILL BE OFFSET BY
INCREASINGLY WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONG INSOLATION. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LOWER 70S NORTHEAST SUNDAY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA REACHING MID
70S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH IS 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...WITH A CORRESPONDING BUMP IN
MORNING MINS INTO THE LOW 50S.

OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE DELAYED AS IT ALIGNS PARALLEL TO
WESTERLY FLOW AND ACTUAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE IN THE FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. MOISTURE ADVECTION THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE...AND
WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS
AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MAY INHIBIT WARMUP A BIT...NEAR 70 NORTH
TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN THROUGH CENTRAL TN AND MS/AL WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY... SPREADING MID-HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOVE 15 000 FT
AGL OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MOST POTENT
PORTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG VORTICITY CENTER NOW NEAR
CHICAGO THAT WILL DROP SE OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS EVENING...
AND ONCE THIS PASSES WELL TO OUR SE... SKIES OVER NC WILL CLEAR. NO
OTHER AVIATION HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED... WITH DRY NEAR-SURFACE AIR
LIMITING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT DESPITE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z EARLY SAT MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
HOLD AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH TUE... AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WSW. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION: A LITTLE FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUE MORNING MAINLY AT FAY
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 240719
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT... AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. AT THE SURFACE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STRONG LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND ON OUR WEATHER IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS
THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM NC... LEAVING A VERY WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS SEPARATING TWO WEAK RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN FROM THE SW TODAY. ALOFT... THE COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL KY/TN TO MS/AL AND A STRONG
VORTICITY CENTER NEAR CHICAGO WILL BRING PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD AS THESE FEATURES TRACK ESE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE EXPECTED FAIR SKIES WILL STILL ALLOW FOR MILKY
INSOLATION... PUSHING TEMPS UP TO MAXES OF 70-73... CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS FOLLOWING FORECAST THICKNESSES. IN THE WAKE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT... THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEPART...
LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT MAINLY NORTH WINDS AS THE SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER W TX AND LA BUILDS STRONGLY TO THE NE TOWARD THE
SRN APPALACHIANS. LOWS TONIGHT 39-45... ON THE LOW END OF
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WITH EXPECTATIONS OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...

CONTINUED TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR SW WILL EXTEND
NORTHEAST INTO NC... ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING THROUGH NRN/WRN
NC WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE BASE OF THE VORTEX DROPPING THROUGH
SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. BUT DRY/STABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS SUPPORT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS... SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 70S. LOWS WILL BE MILDER SAT NIGHT... 45-50... AS A TIGHTER
MSLP GRADIENT KEEPS THE LOW LEVELS SLIGHTLY STIRRED OVERNIGHT. -GIH

&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

AN UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AND OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT...WITH PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW TO MAINTAIN
OUR MILD AIRMASS. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF A DRY FRONT
WILL BARELY GRAZE THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY...AND WILL BE OFFSET BY
INCREASINGLY WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONG INSOLATION. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LOWER 70S NORTHEAST SUNDAY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA REACHING MID
70S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH IS 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...WITH A CORRESPONDING BUMP IN
MORNING MINS INTO THE LOW 50S.

OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE DELAYED AS IT ALIGNS PARALLEL TO
WESTERLY FLOW AND ACTUAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE IN THE FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. MOISTURE ADVECTION THURSDAY WILL BE NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE...AND
WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS
AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MAY INHIBIT WARMUP A BIT...NEAR 70 NORTH
TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN THROUGH CENTRAL TN AND MS/AL WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY... SPREADING MID-HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOVE 15 000 FT
AGL OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MOST POTENT
PORTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG VORTICITY CENTER NOW NEAR
CHICAGO THAT WILL DROP SE OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS EVENING...
AND ONCE THIS PASSES WELL TO OUR SE... SKIES OVER NC WILL CLEAR. NO
OTHER AVIATION HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED... WITH DRY NEAR-SURFACE AIR
LIMITING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT DESPITE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY SAT MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
HOLD AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH TUE... AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WSW. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION: A LITTLE FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUE MORNING MAINLY AT FAY
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 240644
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT... AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. AT THE SURFACE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STRONG LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND ON OUR WEATHER IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS
THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM NC... LEAVING A VERY WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS SEPARATING TWO WEAK RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN FROM THE SW TODAY. ALOFT... THE COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL KY/TN TO MS/AL AND A STRONG
VORTICITY CENTER NEAR CHICAGO WILL BRING PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD AS THESE FEATURES TRACK ESE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE EXPECTED FAIR SKIES WILL STILL ALLOW FOR MILKY
INSOLATION... PUSHING TEMPS UP TO MAXES OF 70-73... CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS FOLLOWING FORECAST THICKNESSES. IN THE WAKE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT... THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEPART...
LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT MAINLY NORTH WINDS AS THE SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED OVER W TX AND LA BUILDS STRONGLY TO THE NE TOWARD THE
SRN APPALACHIANS. LOWS TONIGHT 39-45... ON THE LOW END OF
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WITH EXPECTATIONS OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...

CONTINUED TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR SW WILL EXTEND
NORTHEAST INTO NC... ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING THROUGH NRN/WRN
NC WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE BASE OF THE VORTEX DROPPING THROUGH
SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. BUT DRY/STABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS SUPPORT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS... SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 70S. LOWS WILL BE MILDER SAT NIGHT... 45-50... AS A TIGHTER
MSLP GRADIENT KEEPS THE LOW LEVELS SLIGHTLY STIRRED OVERNIGHT. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM THURSDAY...

DRY AND MILD TO WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

THERE WERE ONLY MINOR ISSUES TO CONSIDER IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST. IN
GENERAL... RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A MEAN WESTERLY FLOW. THIS IS A DRY FLOW
AND OFTEN TIMES IS ONE IN WHICH TEMPERATURES END UP WARMER THAN
STATICAL GUIDANCE. THE ONLY ISSUES WILL BE THE TIMING OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND.

REGARDLESS... A MILD TO WARM WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MEAN WESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY SUGGESTS A WARMING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIXING
SHOULD LEAD TO MILDER LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY... EVEN THOUGH THE WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN...
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AGAIN WELL INTO THE 70S. THE NE
ZONES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY (COMPARED TO SATURDAY) AS
THE SIGNIFICANT CAA IS DIRECTED MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND... BUT MAY GRAZE THE NE ZONES FOR A BRIEF
TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND WARM. A
RETURN FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD GIVE TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE OF A
BOOST AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE IN THE MEAN ZONAL FLOW. HIGHS MAY HIT 80
OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY AGAIN BRUSH THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER... ONLY
SUBTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK... WITH A CONTINUED DRY
LOOK TO THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN THROUGH CENTRAL TN AND MS/AL WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY... SPREADING MID-HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOVE 15 000 FT
AGL OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MOST POTENT
PORTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG VORTICITY CENTER NOW NEAR
CHICAGO THAT WILL DROP SE OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS EVENING...
AND ONCE THIS PASSES WELL TO OUR SE... SKIES OVER NC WILL CLEAR. NO
OTHER AVIATION HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED... WITH DRY NEAR-SURFACE AIR
LIMITING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT DESPITE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY SAT MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
HOLD AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH TUE... AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WSW. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION: A LITTLE FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUE MORNING MAINLY AT FAY
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 240515
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
115 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE
REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT... AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 855 PM THURSDAY...

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DECOUPLE...OPAQUE VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS ATTENDANT TO THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE
CLOUDS WILL TEMPER MIN TEMPS...KEEPING READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID
40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...

AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN NC/UPSTATE SC BY SUNSET
FRIDAY EVENING...THEN PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNRISE
SAT. DUE TO THE DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE LOW/MID
LEVELS...FORCING (I.E. DPVA) ASSOC/W THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE
CONFINED ALMOST ENTIRELY TO THE UPPER LEVELS (~500 MB) OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT MODEST MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY...WITH CLEARING DURING THE EVENING. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM THURSDAY...

DRY AND MILD TO WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...

THERE WERE ONLY MINOR ISSUES TO CONSIDER IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST. IN
GENERAL... RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A MEAN WESTERLY FLOW. THIS IS A DRY FLOW
AND OFTEN TIMES IS ONE IN WHICH TEMPERATURES END UP WARMER THAN
STATICAL GUIDANCE. THE ONLY ISSUES WILL BE THE TIMING OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND.

REGARDLESS... A MILD TO WARM WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MEAN WESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY SUGGESTS A WARMING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIXING
SHOULD LEAD TO MILDER LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY... EVEN THOUGH THE WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN...
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AGAIN WELL INTO THE 70S. THE NE
ZONES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY (COMPARED TO SATURDAY) AS
THE SIGNIFICANT CAA IS DIRECTED MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND... BUT MAY GRAZE THE NE ZONES FOR A BRIEF
TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND WARM. A
RETURN FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD GIVE TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE OF A
BOOST AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE IN THE MEAN ZONAL FLOW. HIGHS MAY HIT 80
OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY AGAIN BRUSH THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER... ONLY
SUBTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK... WITH A CONTINUED DRY
LOOK TO THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN THROUGH CENTRAL TN AND MS/AL WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY... SPREADING MID-HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES ABOVE 15 000 FT
AGL OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MOST POTENT
PORTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG VORTICITY CENTER NOW NEAR
CHICAGO THAT WILL DROP SE OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS EVENING...
AND ONCE THIS PASSES WELL TO OUR SE... SKIES OVER NC WILL CLEAR. NO
OTHER AVIATION HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED... WITH DRY NEAR-SURFACE AIR
LIMITING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT DESPITE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.

LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY SAT MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
HOLD AT ALL CENTRAL NC TAF SITES THROUGH TUE... AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WSW. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION: A LITTLE FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUE MORNING MAINLY AT FAY
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 240055
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
855 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TONIGHT BEFORE PROGRESSING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 855 PM THURSDAY...

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE AREA. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DECOUPLE...OPAQUE VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS ATTENDANT TO THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE
CLOUDS WILL TEMPER MIN TEMPS...KEEPING READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID
40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...

AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN NC/UPSTATE SC BY SUNSET
FRIDAY EVENING...THEN PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNRISE
SAT. DUE TO THE DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE LOW/MID
LEVELS...FORCING (I.E. DPVA) ASSOC/W THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE
CONFINED ALMOST ENTIRELY TO THE UPPER LEVELS (~500 MB) OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT MODEST MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY...WITH CLEARING DURING THE EVENING. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM THURSDAY...

DRY AND MILD TO WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...

THERE WERE ONLY MINOR ISSUES TO CONSIDER IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST. IN
GENERAL... RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A MEAN WESTERLY FLOW. THIS IS A DRY FLOW
AND OFTEN TIMES IS ONE IN WHICH TEMPERATURES END UP WARMER THAN
STATICAL GUIDANCE. THE ONLY ISSUES WILL BE THE TIMING OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND.

REGARDLESS... A MILD TO WARM WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MEAN WESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY SUGGESTS A WARMING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIXING
SHOULD LEAD TO MILDER LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY... EVEN THOUGH THE WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN...
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AGAIN WELL INTO THE 70S. THE NE
ZONES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY (COMPARED TO SATURDAY) AS
THE SIGNIFICANT CAA IS DIRECTED MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND... BUT MAY GRAZE THE NE ZONES FOR A BRIEF
TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND WARM. A
RETURN FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD GIVE TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE OF A
BOOST AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE IN THE MEAN ZONAL FLOW. HIGHS MAY HIT 80
OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY AGAIN BRUSH THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER... ONLY
SUBTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK... WITH A CONTINUED DRY
LOOK TO THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 814 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS... WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EXTENDING IN TO THE
AREA. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
CROSS THE AREA LATE TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN ASSOC/W A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...SEC/VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 231852
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
251 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
AND OFFSHORE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT BEFORE PROGRESSING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM THURSDAY...

A CORRIDOR OF PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN AN UPSTREAM (TN/OH VALLEY) RIDGE AND A
DOWNSTREAM (MID-ATLANTIC COAST) UPPER LEVEL LOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW TRACKS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPSTREAM RIDGE INTO THE TN VALLEY...THOUGH THE IMPACT THEREOF
(DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE) WILL REMAIN INTACT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOWS 40-45.
-VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...

AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN NC/UPSTATE SC BY SUNSET
FRIDAY EVENING...THEN PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNRISE
SAT. DUE TO THE DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE LOW/MID
LEVELS...FORCING (I.E. DPVA) ASSOC/W THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE
CONFINED ALMOST ENTIRELY TO THE UPPER LEVELS (~500 MB) OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES ON FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY A MODEST INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER (CIRRUS)
FRIDAY NIGHT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST GIVEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN AIRMASS. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM THURSDAY...

DRY AND MILD TO WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...

THERE WERE ONLY MINOR ISSUES TO CONSIDER IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST. IN
GENERAL... RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A MEAN WESTERLY FLOW. THIS IS A DRY FLOW
AND OFTEN TIMES IS ONE IN WHICH TEMPERATURES END UP WARMER THAN
STATICAL GUIDANCE. THE ONLY ISSUES WILL BE THE TIMING OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND.

REGARDLESS... A MILD TO WARM WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MEAN WESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY SUGGESTS A WARMING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIXING
SHOULD LEAD TO MILDER LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY... EVEN THOUGH THE WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN...
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AGAIN WELL INTO THE 70S. THE NE
ZONES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY (COMPARED TO SATURDAY) AS
THE SIGNIFICANT CAA IS DIRECTED MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND... BUT MAY GRAZE THE NE ZONES FOR A BRIEF
TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND WARM. A
RETURN FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD GIVE TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE OF A
BOOST AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE IN THE MEAN ZONAL FLOW. HIGHS MAY HIT 80
OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY AGAIN BRUSH THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER... ONLY
SUBTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK... WITH A CONTINUED DRY
LOOK TO THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1145 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS /CLEAR SKIES/ WILL RULE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW ALONG MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY. A NW BREEZE AT 10-15 KT WILL DECREASE TO 5
KT OR LESS BY SUNSET...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN ASSOC/W A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 231852
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
251 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
AND OFFSHORE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT BEFORE PROGRESSING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 251 PM THURSDAY...

A CORRIDOR OF PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN AN UPSTREAM (TN/OH VALLEY) RIDGE AND A
DOWNSTREAM (MID-ATLANTIC COAST) UPPER LEVEL LOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW TRACKS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPSTREAM RIDGE INTO THE TN VALLEY...THOUGH THE IMPACT THEREOF
(DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE) WILL REMAIN INTACT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOWS 40-45.
-VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...

AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN NC/UPSTATE SC BY SUNSET
FRIDAY EVENING...THEN PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNRISE
SAT. DUE TO THE DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE LOW/MID
LEVELS...FORCING (I.E. DPVA) ASSOC/W THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE
CONFINED ALMOST ENTIRELY TO THE UPPER LEVELS (~500 MB) OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES ON FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY A MODEST INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER (CIRRUS)
FRIDAY NIGHT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST GIVEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN AIRMASS. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM THURSDAY...

DRY AND MILD TO WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...

THERE WERE ONLY MINOR ISSUES TO CONSIDER IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST. IN
GENERAL... RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A MEAN WESTERLY FLOW. THIS IS A DRY FLOW
AND OFTEN TIMES IS ONE IN WHICH TEMPERATURES END UP WARMER THAN
STATICAL GUIDANCE. THE ONLY ISSUES WILL BE THE TIMING OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND.

REGARDLESS... A MILD TO WARM WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MEAN WESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY SUGGESTS A WARMING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIXING
SHOULD LEAD TO MILDER LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY... EVEN THOUGH THE WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN...
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AGAIN WELL INTO THE 70S. THE NE
ZONES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY (COMPARED TO SATURDAY) AS
THE SIGNIFICANT CAA IS DIRECTED MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND... BUT MAY GRAZE THE NE ZONES FOR A BRIEF
TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND WARM. A
RETURN FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD GIVE TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE OF A
BOOST AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE IN THE MEAN ZONAL FLOW. HIGHS MAY HIT 80
OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY AGAIN BRUSH THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER... ONLY
SUBTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK... WITH A CONTINUED DRY
LOOK TO THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1145 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS /CLEAR SKIES/ WILL RULE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW ALONG MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY. A NW BREEZE AT 10-15 KT WILL DECREASE TO 5
KT OR LESS BY SUNSET...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN ASSOC/W A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 231748
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
148 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
AND OFFSHORE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT BEFORE PROGRESSING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1145 AM THURSDAY...

SHORT: MOISTURE...NEGLIGIBLE. FORCING FOR ASCENT...ABSENT.
FORECAST...DRY. HIGHS...MID/UPPER 60S. LOWS...UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

SLIGHTLY LONGER: A CORRIDOR OF PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE REGION TODAY...BETWEEN AN UPSTREAM (TN/OH VALLEY) RIDGE AND
A DOWNSTREAM (MID-ATLANTIC COAST) UPPER LEVEL LOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW TRACKS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPSTREAM RIDGE INTO THE TN VALLEY...THOUGH THE IMPACT THEREOF
(DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE) WILL REMAIN INTACT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...

AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN NC/UPSTATE SC BY SUNSET
FRIDAY EVENING...THEN PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNRISE
SAT. DUE TO THE DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE LOW/MID
LEVELS...FORCING (I.E. DPVA) ASSOC/W THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE
CONFINED ALMOST ENTIRELY TO THE UPPER LEVELS (~500 MB) OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES ON FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY A MODEST INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER (CIRRUS)
FRIDAY NIGHT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST GIVEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN AIRMASS. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM THURSDAY...

DRY AND MILD TO WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...

THERE WERE ONLY MINOR ISSUES TO CONSIDER IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST. IN
GENERAL... RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A MEAN WESTERLY FLOW. THIS IS A DRY FLOW
AND OFTEN TIMES IS ONE IN WHICH TEMPERATURES END UP WARMER THAN
STATICAL GUIDANCE. THE ONLY ISSUES WILL BE THE TIMING OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND.

REGARDLESS... A MILD TO WARM WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MEAN WESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY SUGGESTS A WARMING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIXING
SHOULD LEAD TO MILDER LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY... EVEN THOUGH THE WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN...
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AGAIN WELL INTO THE 70S. THE NE
ZONES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY (COMPARED TO SATURDAY) AS
THE SIGNIFICANT CAA IS DIRECTED MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND... BUT MAY GRAZE THE NE ZONES FOR A BRIEF
TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND WARM. A
RETURN FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD GIVE TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE OF A
BOOST AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE IN THE MEAN ZONAL FLOW. HIGHS MAY HIT 80
OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY AGAIN BRUSH THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER... ONLY
SUBTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK... WITH A CONTINUED DRY
LOOK TO THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1145 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS /CLEAR SKIES/ WILL RULE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW ALONG MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY. A NW BREEZE AT 10-15 KT WILL DECREASE TO 5
KT OR LESS BY SUNSET...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN ASSOC/W A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 231748
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
148 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
AND OFFSHORE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT BEFORE PROGRESSING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1145 AM THURSDAY...

SHORT: MOISTURE...NEGLIGIBLE. FORCING FOR ASCENT...ABSENT.
FORECAST...DRY. HIGHS...MID/UPPER 60S. LOWS...UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

SLIGHTLY LONGER: A CORRIDOR OF PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE REGION TODAY...BETWEEN AN UPSTREAM (TN/OH VALLEY) RIDGE AND
A DOWNSTREAM (MID-ATLANTIC COAST) UPPER LEVEL LOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW TRACKS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPSTREAM RIDGE INTO THE TN VALLEY...THOUGH THE IMPACT THEREOF
(DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE) WILL REMAIN INTACT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...

AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN NC/UPSTATE SC BY SUNSET
FRIDAY EVENING...THEN PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNRISE
SAT. DUE TO THE DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE LOW/MID
LEVELS...FORCING (I.E. DPVA) ASSOC/W THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE
CONFINED ALMOST ENTIRELY TO THE UPPER LEVELS (~500 MB) OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES ON FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY A MODEST INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER (CIRRUS)
FRIDAY NIGHT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST GIVEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN AIRMASS. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM THURSDAY...

DRY AND MILD TO WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...

THERE WERE ONLY MINOR ISSUES TO CONSIDER IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST. IN
GENERAL... RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A MEAN WESTERLY FLOW. THIS IS A DRY FLOW
AND OFTEN TIMES IS ONE IN WHICH TEMPERATURES END UP WARMER THAN
STATICAL GUIDANCE. THE ONLY ISSUES WILL BE THE TIMING OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND.

REGARDLESS... A MILD TO WARM WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MEAN WESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY SUGGESTS A WARMING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIXING
SHOULD LEAD TO MILDER LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY... EVEN THOUGH THE WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN...
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AGAIN WELL INTO THE 70S. THE NE
ZONES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY (COMPARED TO SATURDAY) AS
THE SIGNIFICANT CAA IS DIRECTED MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND... BUT MAY GRAZE THE NE ZONES FOR A BRIEF
TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND WARM. A
RETURN FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD GIVE TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE OF A
BOOST AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE IN THE MEAN ZONAL FLOW. HIGHS MAY HIT 80
OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY AGAIN BRUSH THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER... ONLY
SUBTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK... WITH A CONTINUED DRY
LOOK TO THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1145 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS /CLEAR SKIES/ WILL RULE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW ALONG MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY. A NW BREEZE AT 10-15 KT WILL DECREASE TO 5
KT OR LESS BY SUNSET...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN ASSOC/W A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 231727
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
125 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
AND OFFSHORE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT BEFORE PROGRESSING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1145 AM THURSDAY...

SHORT: MOISTURE...NEGLIGIBLE. FORCING FOR ASCENT...ABSENT.
FORECAST...DRY. HIGHS...MID/UPPER 60S. LOWS...UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

SLIGHTLY LONGER: A CORRIDOR OF PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE REGION TODAY...BETWEEN AN UPSTREAM (TN/OH VALLEY) RIDGE AND
A DOWNSTREAM (MID-ATLANTIC COAST) UPPER LEVEL LOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW TRACKS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPSTREAM RIDGE INTO THE TN VALLEY...THOUGH THE IMPACT THEREOF
(DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE) WILL REMAIN INTACT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. -VINCENT


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY..

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FORM THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY
...WITH A DISTURBANCE POISED TO DIVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.  WITH VERY LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE TO
INTERACT WITH...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED.  THICKNESSES RISE ANOTHER 10M BY FRIDAY
MORNING...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM THURSDAY...

DRY AND MILD TO WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...

THERE WERE ONLY MINOR ISSUES TO CONSIDER IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST. IN
GENERAL... RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A MEAN WESTERLY FLOW. THIS IS A DRY FLOW
AND OFTEN TIMES IS ONE IN WHICH TEMPERATURES END UP WARMER THAN
STATICAL GUIDANCE. THE ONLY ISSUES WILL BE THE TIMING OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND.

REGARDLESS... A MILD TO WARM WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MEAN WESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY SUGGESTS A WARMING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIXING
SHOULD LEAD TO MILDER LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY... EVEN THOUGH THE WEAK FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN...
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AGAIN WELL INTO THE 70S. THE NE
ZONES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY (COMPARED TO SATURDAY) AS
THE SIGNIFICANT CAA IS DIRECTED MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND... BUT MAY GRAZE THE NE ZONES FOR A BRIEF
TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND WARM. A
RETURN FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD GIVE TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE OF A
BOOST AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE IN THE MEAN ZONAL FLOW. HIGHS MAY HIT 80
OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY AGAIN BRUSH THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER... ONLY
SUBTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK... WITH A CONTINUED DRY
LOOK TO THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1145 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS /CLEAR SKIES/ WILL RULE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW ALONG MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY. A NW BREEZE AT 10-15 KT WILL DECREASE TO 5
KT OR LESS BY SUNSET...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN ASSOC/W A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 231725
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
110 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
AND OFFSHORE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT BEFORE PROGRESSING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1145 AM THURSDAY...

SHORT: MOISTURE...NEGLIGIBLE. FORCING FOR ASCENT...ABSENT.
FORECAST...DRY. HIGHS...MID/UPPER 60S. LOWS...UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

SLIGHTLY LONGER: A CORRIDOR OF PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE REGION TODAY...BETWEEN AN UPSTREAM (TN/OH VALLEY) RIDGE AND
A DOWNSTREAM (MID-ATLANTIC COAST) UPPER LEVEL LOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW TRACKS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPSTREAM RIDGE INTO THE TN VALLEY...THOUGH THE IMPACT THEREOF
(DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE) WILL REMAIN INTACT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. -VINCENT


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY..

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FORM THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY
...WITH A DISTURBANCE POISED TO DIVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.  WITH VERY LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE TO
INTERACT WITH...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED.  THICKNESSES RISE ANOTHER 10M BY FRIDAY
MORNING...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM THURSDAY...

DRY AND MILD TO WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...

THERE WERE ONLY MINOR ISSUES TO CONSIDER IN THE WEEKEND FORECAST. IN
GENERAL... RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A MEAN WESTERLY FLOW. THIS IS A DRY FLOW
AND OFTEN TIMES IS ONE IN WHICH TEMPERATURES END UP WARMER THAN
STATICAL GUIDANCE. THE ONLY ISSUES WILL BE THE TIMING OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS THIS WEEKEND. REGARDLESS... A MILD TO WARM WEEKEND IS
ANTICIPATED WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY
SUGGESTS A WARMING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. A PERIOD OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO MILDER LOWS IN THE 50S
FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY... EVEN THOUGH THE WEAK FRONT
WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN... SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
AGAIN WELL INTO THE 70S. THE NE ZONES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
SUNDAY (COMPARED TO SATURDAY) AS THE SIGNIFICANT CAA IS DIRECTED
MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND... BUT MAY
GRAZE THE NE ZONES FOR A BRIEF TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND WARM. A
RETURN FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD GIVE TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE OF A
BOOST AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE IN THE MEAN ZONAL FLOW. HIGHS MAY HIT 80
OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY.

A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY AGAIN BRUSH THE AREA THURSDAY. HOWEVER... ONLY
SUBTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK... WITH A CONTINUED DRY
LOOK TO THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1145 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS /CLEAR SKIES/ WILL RULE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW ALONG MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY. A NW BREEZE AT 10-15 KT WILL DECREASE TO 5
KT OR LESS BY SUNSET...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN ASSOC/W A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 231548
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1148 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
AND OFFSHORE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT BEFORE PROGRESSING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1145 AM THURSDAY...

SHORT: MOISTURE...NEGLIGIBLE. FORCING FOR ASCENT...ABSENT.
FORECAST...DRY. HIGHS...MID/UPPER 60S. LOWS...UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

SLIGHTLY LONGER: A CORRIDOR OF PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE REGION TODAY...BETWEEN AN UPSTREAM (TN/OH VALLEY) RIDGE AND
A DOWNSTREAM (MID-ATLANTIC COAST) UPPER LEVEL LOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW TRACKS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPSTREAM RIDGE INTO THE TN VALLEY...THOUGH THE IMPACT THEREOF
(DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE) WILL REMAIN INTACT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. -VINCENT


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY..

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FORM THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY
...WITH A DISTURBANCE POISED TO DIVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.  WITH VERY LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE TO
INTERACT WITH...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED.  THICKNESSES RISE ANOTHER 10M BY FRIDAY
MORNING...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM THURSDAY...

FOR SAT-SUN NIGHT: AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SAT MORNING... A BENIGN WEST-TO-EAST-
MOVING WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA SAT WITH LIGHT SURFACE
FLOW BACKING FROM NW TO WSW. GIVEN THE DRY AND STABLE AIR ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NC... EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN SCTD FLAT CUMULUS
SAT. A FAST-MOVING AND WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
NC FROM THE NW LATE SAT NIGHT... A RESULT OF STRONG VORTICITY
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID LEVEL
LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM SRN ONTARIO ACROSS SE QUEBEC THROUGH SUN
MORNING. WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUDS WITH THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE... BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE MUTED BY THE LACK OF MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE SUPPRESSION OF
THE (ELEVATED) LIFT TO OUR NORTH. AND THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW
LITTLE TO NO DROP IN THICKNESSES... WITH THE FRONT JUST BRUSHING
ACROSS NRN NC. THE GFS IN PARTICULAR HOLDS ALL COOLER AIR NORTH OF
THE BORDER AND KEEPS CENTRAL NC THICKNESSES 20-30 M ABOVE NORMAL.
EVEN THE MORE SUBDUED ECMWF HAS TRENDED MILDER. SO... EXPECT
SATURDAY`S SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S TO HOLD
FIRM FOR SUNDAY AS WELL... AND COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS SRN NC. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 SAT NIGHT. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE A TAD COOLER SUN NIGHT... LOW-MID 40S... AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER NC FROM THE NW...ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A LACK OF CLOUDS AND A DROPOFF OF WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

FOR MON-WED: DRY AND WARMING. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL MOVE OVER AND OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES... AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE SRN PLAINS
EASTWARD TO OVER AND JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH WED. AS
THE SURFACE... THE HIGH OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT WILL EASE SLOWLY OFF THE
COAST WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF
TAKE A LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUE/WED WITH A CORRESPONDING SURFACE COLD FRONT... HOWEVER THERE IS
MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPEED OF APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH AND
FRONT TOWARD NC. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS A BIT ABOVE-NORMAL AND A TREND
TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INTRODUCES GRADUALLY
IMPROVING MOISTURE... BUT WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAIN IN SIGHT. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1145 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS /CLEAR SKIES/ WILL RULE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW ALONG MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY. A NW BREEZE AT 10-15 KT WILL DECREASE TO 5
KT OR LESS BY SUNSET...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN ASSOC/W A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 231548
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1148 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND
AND OFFSHORE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT BEFORE PROGRESSING INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1145 AM THURSDAY...

SHORT: MOISTURE...NEGLIGIBLE. FORCING FOR ASCENT...ABSENT.
FORECAST...DRY. HIGHS...MID/UPPER 60S. LOWS...UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.

SLIGHTLY LONGER: A CORRIDOR OF PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE REGION TODAY...BETWEEN AN UPSTREAM (TN/OH VALLEY) RIDGE AND
A DOWNSTREAM (MID-ATLANTIC COAST) UPPER LEVEL LOW. SUBSIDENCE WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE MID-ATLANTIC LOW TRACKS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
AND AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPSTREAM RIDGE INTO THE TN VALLEY...THOUGH THE IMPACT THEREOF
(DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE) WILL REMAIN INTACT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. -VINCENT


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY..

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FORM THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY
...WITH A DISTURBANCE POISED TO DIVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.  WITH VERY LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE TO
INTERACT WITH...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED.  THICKNESSES RISE ANOTHER 10M BY FRIDAY
MORNING...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM THURSDAY...

FOR SAT-SUN NIGHT: AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SAT MORNING... A BENIGN WEST-TO-EAST-
MOVING WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA SAT WITH LIGHT SURFACE
FLOW BACKING FROM NW TO WSW. GIVEN THE DRY AND STABLE AIR ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NC... EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN SCTD FLAT CUMULUS
SAT. A FAST-MOVING AND WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
NC FROM THE NW LATE SAT NIGHT... A RESULT OF STRONG VORTICITY
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID LEVEL
LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM SRN ONTARIO ACROSS SE QUEBEC THROUGH SUN
MORNING. WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUDS WITH THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE... BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE MUTED BY THE LACK OF MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE SUPPRESSION OF
THE (ELEVATED) LIFT TO OUR NORTH. AND THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW
LITTLE TO NO DROP IN THICKNESSES... WITH THE FRONT JUST BRUSHING
ACROSS NRN NC. THE GFS IN PARTICULAR HOLDS ALL COOLER AIR NORTH OF
THE BORDER AND KEEPS CENTRAL NC THICKNESSES 20-30 M ABOVE NORMAL.
EVEN THE MORE SUBDUED ECMWF HAS TRENDED MILDER. SO... EXPECT
SATURDAY`S SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S TO HOLD
FIRM FOR SUNDAY AS WELL... AND COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS SRN NC. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 SAT NIGHT. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE A TAD COOLER SUN NIGHT... LOW-MID 40S... AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER NC FROM THE NW...ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A LACK OF CLOUDS AND A DROPOFF OF WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

FOR MON-WED: DRY AND WARMING. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL MOVE OVER AND OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES... AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE SRN PLAINS
EASTWARD TO OVER AND JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH WED. AS
THE SURFACE... THE HIGH OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT WILL EASE SLOWLY OFF THE
COAST WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF
TAKE A LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUE/WED WITH A CORRESPONDING SURFACE COLD FRONT... HOWEVER THERE IS
MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPEED OF APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH AND
FRONT TOWARD NC. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS A BIT ABOVE-NORMAL AND A TREND
TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INTRODUCES GRADUALLY
IMPROVING MOISTURE... BUT WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAIN IN SIGHT. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1145 AM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS /CLEAR SKIES/ WILL RULE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW ALONG MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY. A NW BREEZE AT 10-15 KT WILL DECREASE TO 5
KT OR LESS BY SUNSET...BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN ASSOC/W A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 231131
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER NC...THOUGH WEAKENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES...WITH VERY DRY AIR EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  A FEW WIND GUSTS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AND
THICKNESSES WILL START ABOUT 5M HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...SUPPORTING
HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN THE 66-70 RANGE.

TONIGHT...A DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOME CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  CURRENTLY...IT DOESNT APPEAR THE CIRRUS WILL BE VERY
THICK...BUT IF IT IS THEN FORECAST LOWS OF 40-43 MAY BE TOO COLD.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY..

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FORM THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY
...WITH A DISTURBANCE POISED TO DIVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.  WITH VERY LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE TO
INTERACT WITH...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED.  THICKNESSES RISE ANOTHER 10M BY FRIDAY
MORNING...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM THURSDAY...

FOR SAT-SUN NIGHT: AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SAT MORNING... A BENIGN WEST-TO-EAST-
MOVING WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA SAT WITH LIGHT SURFACE
FLOW BACKING FROM NW TO WSW. GIVEN THE DRY AND STABLE AIR ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NC... EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN SCTD FLAT CUMULUS
SAT. A FAST-MOVING AND WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
NC FROM THE NW LATE SAT NIGHT... A RESULT OF STRONG VORTICITY
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID LEVEL
LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM SRN ONTARIO ACROSS SE QUEBEC THROUGH SUN
MORNING. WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUDS WITH THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE... BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE MUTED BY THE LACK OF MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE SUPPRESSION OF
THE (ELEVATED) LIFT TO OUR NORTH. AND THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW
LITTLE TO NO DROP IN THICKNESSES... WITH THE FRONT JUST BRUSHING
ACROSS NRN NC. THE GFS IN PARTICULAR HOLDS ALL COOLER AIR NORTH OF
THE BORDER AND KEEPS CENTRAL NC THICKNESSES 20-30 M ABOVE NORMAL.
EVEN THE MORE SUBDUED ECMWF HAS TRENDED MILDER. SO... EXPECT
SATURDAY`S SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S TO HOLD
FIRM FOR SUNDAY AS WELL... AND COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS SRN NC. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 SAT NIGHT. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE A TAD COOLER SUN NIGHT... LOW-MID 40S... AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER NC FROM THE NW... ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A LACK OF CLOUDS AND A DROPOFF OF WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

FOR MON-WED: DRY AND WARMING. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL MOVE OVER AND OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES... AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE SRN PLAINS
EASTWARD TO OVER AND JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH WED. AS
THE SURFACE... THE HIGH OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT WILL EASE SLOWLY OFF THE
COAST WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF
TAKE A LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUE/WED WITH A CORRESPONDING SURFACE COLD FRONT... HOWEVER THERE IS
MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPEED OF APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH AND
FRONT TOWARD NC. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS A BIT ABOVE-NORMAL AND A TREND
TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INTRODUCES GRADUALLY
IMPROVING MOISTURE... BUT WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAIN IN SIGHT. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM THURSDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.  WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WIND GUSTS INTO THE 15-20KT
RANGE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDDAY AND AT POINTS EAST OF
KRDU/KRWI/KFAY...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF WINDS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.  LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER REMAINS DOMINATED BY DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD/BLS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 230705
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER NC...THOUGH WEAKENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES...WITH VERY DRY AIR EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  A FEW WIND GUSTS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN.  THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AND
THICKNESSES WILL START ABOUT 5M HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...SUPPORTING
HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN THE 66-70 RANGE.

TONIGHT...A DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOME CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  CURRENTLY...IT DOESNT APPEAR THE CIRRUS WILL BE VERY
THICK...BUT IF IT IS THEN FORECAST LOWS OF 40-43 MAY BE TOO COLD.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY..

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FORM THE DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY
...WITH A DISTURBANCE POISED TO DIVE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT.  WITH VERY LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE TO
INTERACT WITH...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED.  THICKNESSES RISE ANOTHER 10M BY FRIDAY
MORNING...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.  LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM THURSDAY...

FOR SAT-SUN NIGHT: AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SAT MORNING... A BENIGN WEST-TO-EAST-
MOVING WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA SAT WITH LIGHT SURFACE
FLOW BACKING FROM NW TO WSW. GIVEN THE DRY AND STABLE AIR ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NC... EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN SCTD FLAT CUMULUS
SAT. A FAST-MOVING AND WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
NC FROM THE NW LATE SAT NIGHT... A RESULT OF STRONG VORTICITY
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID LEVEL
LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM SRN ONTARIO ACROSS SE QUEBEC THROUGH SUN
MORNING. WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUDS WITH THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE... BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE MUTED BY THE LACK OF MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE SUPPRESSION OF
THE (ELEVATED) LIFT TO OUR NORTH. AND THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW
LITTLE TO NO DROP IN THICKNESSES... WITH THE FRONT JUST BRUSHING
ACROSS NRN NC. THE GFS IN PARTICULAR HOLDS ALL COOLER AIR NORTH OF
THE BORDER AND KEEPS CENTRAL NC THICKNESSES 20-30 M ABOVE NORMAL.
EVEN THE MORE SUBDUED ECMWF HAS TRENDED MILDER. SO... EXPECT
SATURDAY`S SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S TO HOLD
FIRM FOR SUNDAY AS WELL... AND COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS SRN NC. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 SAT NIGHT. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE A TAD COOLER SUN NIGHT... LOW-MID 40S... AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER NC FROM THE NW... ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A LACK OF CLOUDS AND A DROPOFF OF WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

FOR MON-WED: DRY AND WARMING. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL MOVE OVER AND OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES... AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE SRN PLAINS
EASTWARD TO OVER AND JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH WED. AS
THE SURFACE... THE HIGH OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT WILL EASE SLOWLY OFF THE
COAST WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF
TAKE A LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUE/WED WITH A CORRESPONDING SURFACE COLD FRONT... HOWEVER THERE IS
MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPEED OF APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH AND
FRONT TOWARD NC. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS A BIT ABOVE-NORMAL AND A TREND
TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INTRODUCES GRADUALLY
IMPROVING MOISTURE... BUT WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAIN IN SIGHT. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM THURSDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.  WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WIND GUSTS INTO THE 15-20KT
RANGE...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND AT POINTS EATS OF KRDU...WITH A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.  LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER REMAINS DOMINATED BY DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD/BLS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 230636
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 907 PM WEDNESDAY...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UP THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THU/THU NIGHT. AS THE THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  BROKEN/OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS ACROSS NE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL CLEAR OUT BY DAYBREAK...WITH
BREEZY NWLY WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MIN TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
40S...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S IN THE TYPICAL OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHS
THURSDAY 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AND EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FRIDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NE WANES FOR CENTRAL NC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM THURSDAY...

FOR SAT-SUN NIGHT: AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SAT MORNING... A BENIGN WEST-TO-EAST-
MOVING WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA SAT WITH LIGHT SURFACE
FLOW BACKING FROM NW TO WSW. GIVEN THE DRY AND STABLE AIR ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NC... EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN SCTD FLAT CUMULUS
SAT. A FAST-MOVING AND WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
NC FROM THE NW LATE SAT NIGHT... A RESULT OF STRONG VORTICITY
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID LEVEL
LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM SRN ONTARIO ACROSS SE QUEBEC THROUGH SUN
MORNING. WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF BROKEN CLOUDS WITH THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE... BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE MUTED BY THE LACK OF MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE SUPPRESSION OF
THE (ELEVATED) LIFT TO OUR NORTH. AND THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW
LITTLE TO NO DROP IN THICKNESSES... WITH THE FRONT JUST BRUSHING
ACROSS NRN NC. THE GFS IN PARTICULAR HOLDS ALL COOLER AIR NORTH OF
THE BORDER AND KEEPS CENTRAL NC THICKNESSES 20-30 M ABOVE NORMAL.
EVEN THE MORE SUBDUED ECMWF HAS TRENDED MILDER. SO... EXPECT
SATURDAY`S SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S TO HOLD
FIRM FOR SUNDAY AS WELL... AND COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS SRN NC. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 SAT NIGHT. EXPECT
TEMPS TO BE A TAD COOLER SUN NIGHT... LOW-MID 40S... AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND OVER NC FROM THE NW... ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A LACK OF CLOUDS AND A DROPOFF OF WINDS
OVERNIGHT.

FOR MON-WED: DRY AND WARMING. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NORTHEAST STATES WILL MOVE OVER AND OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES... AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE SRN PLAINS
EASTWARD TO OVER AND JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH WED. AS
THE SURFACE... THE HIGH OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT WILL EASE SLOWLY OFF THE
COAST WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF
TAKE A LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUE/WED WITH A CORRESPONDING SURFACE COLD FRONT... HOWEVER THERE IS
MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPEED OF APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH AND
FRONT TOWARD NC. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS A BIT ABOVE-NORMAL AND A TREND
TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INTRODUCES GRADUALLY
IMPROVING MOISTURE... BUT WITH NO APPRECIABLE RAIN IN SIGHT. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM THURSDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.  WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WIND GUSTS INTO THE 15-20KT
RANGE...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND AT POINTS EATS OF KRDU...WITH A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.  LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER REMAINS DOMINATED BY DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD/BLS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 230552
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
DRIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 907 PM WEDNESDAY...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UP THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THU/THU NIGHT. AS THE THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  BROKEN/OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS ACROSS NE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL CLEAR OUT BY DAYBREAK...WITH
BREEZY NWLY WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MIN TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
40S...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S IN THE TYPICAL OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHS
THURSDAY 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AND EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FRIDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NE WANES FOR CENTRAL NC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

A BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. IT SHOULD PASS RELATIVELY UNNOTICED OTHER THAN A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH... BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (GENERALLY
10 MPH OR LESS). CAA WILL BE FELT MOSTLY AFTER DARK SUNDAY BUT (DRY
AIR ADVECTION WILL START EARLY IN THE DAY AS DEW POINTS WILL DROP
OFF MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70-73 RANGE SUNDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S... THEN MODERATE QUICKLY BACK INTO 70-75 RANGE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BEING DOMINATE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT - AND CURRENT INDICATIONS
SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM THURSDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.  WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WIND GUSTS INTO THE 15-20KT
RANGE...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND AT POINTS EATS OF KRDU...WITH A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.  LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER REMAINS DOMINATED BY DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KRD/BLS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 230552
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
DRIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 907 PM WEDNESDAY...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UP THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THU/THU NIGHT. AS THE THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  BROKEN/OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS ACROSS NE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL CLEAR OUT BY DAYBREAK...WITH
BREEZY NWLY WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MIN TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
40S...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S IN THE TYPICAL OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHS
THURSDAY 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AND EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FRIDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NE WANES FOR CENTRAL NC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

A BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. IT SHOULD PASS RELATIVELY UNNOTICED OTHER THAN A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH... BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (GENERALLY
10 MPH OR LESS). CAA WILL BE FELT MOSTLY AFTER DARK SUNDAY BUT (DRY
AIR ADVECTION WILL START EARLY IN THE DAY AS DEW POINTS WILL DROP
OFF MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70-73 RANGE SUNDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S... THEN MODERATE QUICKLY BACK INTO 70-75 RANGE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BEING DOMINATE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT - AND CURRENT INDICATIONS
SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM THURSDAY...

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF AN UPPER LOW OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.  WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WIND GUSTS INTO THE 15-20KT
RANGE...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND AT POINTS EATS OF KRDU...WITH A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.  LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER REMAINS DOMINATED BY DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KRD/BLS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 230108
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
907 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY TRACK FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 907 PM WEDNESDAY...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UP THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THU/THU NIGHT. AS THE THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  BROKEN/OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS ACROSS NE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL CLEAR OUT BY DAYBREAK...WITH
BREEZY NWLY WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MIN TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
40S...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S IN THE TYPICAL OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHS
THURSDAY 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AND EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FRIDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NE WANES FOR CENTRAL NC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

A BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. IT SHOULD PASS RELATIVELY UNNOTICED OTHER THAN A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH... BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (GENERALLY
10 MPH OR LESS). CAA WILL BE FELT MOSTLY AFTER DARK SUNDAY BUT (DRY
AIR ADVECTION WILL START EARLY IN THE DAY AS DEW POINTS WILL DROP
OFF MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70-73 RANGE SUNDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S... THEN MODERATE QUICKLY BACK INTO 70-75 RANGE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BEING DOMINATE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT - AND CURRENT INDICATIONS
SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AFTER A BREEZY DAY TODAY...THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE DECREASED THIS EVENING...BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY (ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY).
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEAST (INCLUDING KRWI)...WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LOW (CURRENTLY NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST) BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER REMAINS DOMINATED BY DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 230108
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
907 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY TRACK FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 907 PM WEDNESDAY...

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UP THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THU/THU NIGHT. AS THE THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  BROKEN/OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS ACROSS NE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL CLEAR OUT BY DAYBREAK...WITH
BREEZY NWLY WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MIN TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
40S...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S IN THE TYPICAL OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHS
THURSDAY 65-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AND EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FRIDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NE WANES FOR CENTRAL NC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

A BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. IT SHOULD PASS RELATIVELY UNNOTICED OTHER THAN A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH... BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (GENERALLY
10 MPH OR LESS). CAA WILL BE FELT MOSTLY AFTER DARK SUNDAY BUT (DRY
AIR ADVECTION WILL START EARLY IN THE DAY AS DEW POINTS WILL DROP
OFF MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70-73 RANGE SUNDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S... THEN MODERATE QUICKLY BACK INTO 70-75 RANGE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BEING DOMINATE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT - AND CURRENT INDICATIONS
SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AFTER A BREEZY DAY TODAY...THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE DECREASED THIS EVENING...BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY (ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY).
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEAST (INCLUDING KRWI)...WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LOW (CURRENTLY NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST) BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER REMAINS DOMINATED BY DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 222346
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
746 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY TRACK FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY TRACK FURTHER OFFSHORE THU/THU NIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL UPSTREAM ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY
THROUGH TONIGHT...DEAMPLIFYING LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE TOP OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES AND DIGS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. CENTRAL NC WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY/SUBSIDENT WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW
THROUGH THU...WITH NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. WITH SUCH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND LITTLE MORE THAN MODEST HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED
IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE
WEST LATE THU/THU NIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
12Z FRI. ANTICIPATE HIGH/LOW TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AND EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FRIDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NE WANES FOR CENTRAL NC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

A BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. IT SHOULD PASS RELATIVELY UNNOTICED OTHER THAN A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH... BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (GENERALLY
10 MPH OR LESS). CAA WILL BE FELT MOSTLY AFTER DARK SUNDAY BUT (DRY
AIR ADVECTION WILL START EARLY IN THE DAY AS DEW POINTS WILL DROP
OFF MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70-73 RANGE SUNDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S... THEN MODERATE QUICKLY BACK INTO 70-75 RANGE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BEING DOMINATE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT - AND CURRENT INDICATIONS
SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AFTER A BREEZY DAY TODAY...THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE DECREASED THIS EVENING...BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY (ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY).
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEAST (INCLUDING KRWI)...WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LOW (CURRENTLY NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST) BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER REMAINS DOMINATED BY DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 221908
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
308 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY TRACK FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY TRACK FURTHER OFFSHORE THU/THU NIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL UPSTREAM ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY
THROUGH TONIGHT...DEAMPLIFYING LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT AS POTENT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE TOP OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES AND DIGS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. CENTRAL NC WILL
REMAIN ON THE DRY/SUBSIDENT WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW
THROUGH THU...WITH NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. WITH SUCH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND LITTLE MORE THAN MODEST HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED
IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE
WEST LATE THU/THU NIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
12Z FRI. ANTICIPATE HIGH/LOW TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AND EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FRIDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NE WANES FOR CENTRAL NC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

A BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. IT SHOULD PASS RELATIVELY UNNOTICED OTHER THAN A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH... BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (GENERALLY
10 MPH OR LESS). CAA WILL BE FELT MOSTLY AFTER DARK SUNDAY BUT (DRY
AIR ADVECTION WILL START EARLY IN THE DAY AS DEW POINTS WILL DROP
OFF MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70-73 RANGE SUNDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S... THEN MODERATE QUICKLY BACK INTO 70-75 RANGE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BEING DOMINATE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT - AND CURRENT INDICATIONS
SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IN
ASSOC/W A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW UPSTREAM OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
STALLED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A NW BREEZE SUSTAINED AT 10-15
KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL WEAKEN TO 5-10 KT BY SUNSET...THEN
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT AFTER SUNRISE THU.

LOOKING AHEAD: A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND IN ASSOC/W A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 221853
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
247 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS....AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
LIFT UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE OTHERWISE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS VERIFYING WELL AND WILL LARGELY BE LEFT AS-
IS...ASIDE FROM MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN CLOUD COVER (CLR-BKN GRADIENT)
FROM THE TRIANGLE INTO THE NE COASTAL PLAIN. THE PRIOR DISCUSSION
SUMS UP THE FORECAST SO WELL THAT IT WILL BE LEFT INTACT THROUGH THE
MORNING UPDATE. -VINCENT

AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP/AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WEST-CENTRAL VA
THIS MORNING TO JUST OFFSHORE THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CENTER OF THE ASSOCIATED STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 M/12 HR...WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC THROUGH
12Z. THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLD POOL/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...HAS SUPPORTED THE
MAINTENANCE OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS INTO THE RAH NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS...AND
CLOUDINESS... WILL BOTH BECOME ENHANCED WITH DIURNAL HEATING OWING
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW - THE FORMER IN EXCESS OF MINUS 20 C
AND THE LATTER BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM...THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE RAH CWFA AS THE
UPPER LOW MAKES A TURN/LIFTS UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE TODAY. IT WILL
ALSO BE COOLER AND BREEZY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY DAYTIME WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH OWING TO THE DEEPENING OF A COASTAL LOW ACCOMPANYING THE
UPPER ONE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. CLEARING AREA-WIDE AND SIMILARLY
COOLER TONIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT NW WIND AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT...TO
MIDDLE 40S OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AND EXTEND ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FRIDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NE WANES FOR CENTRAL NC. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 247 PM WEDNESDAY...

A BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. IT SHOULD PASS RELATIVELY UNNOTICED OTHER THAN A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH... BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (GENERALLY
10 MPH OR LESS). CAA WILL BE FELT MOSTLY AFTER DARK SUNDAY BUT (DRY
AIR ADVECTION WILL START EARLY IN THE DAY AS DEW POINTS WILL DROP
OFF MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70-73 RANGE SUNDAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S... THEN MODERATE QUICKLY BACK INTO 70-75 RANGE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE BEING DOMINATE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT - AND CURRENT INDICATIONS
SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN VICINITY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT KRWI THROUGH AROUND 20Z. IN ADDITION TO THE
SHOWERS...VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS/CLOUD BASES MOSTLY BETWEEN 3500-7000
FT...AND TOPS IN SHOWERS UP TO 17 THOUSAND FT...PARTICULARLY IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW/AT KRDU AND
KRWI. OTHERWISE...NW SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE LOW-MID
TEENS KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S KTS...ONCE DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING COMMENCES BY 15Z...AND IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME
LIGHT...STILL FROM THE NW...AROUND SUNSET.

OUTLOOK: BREEZY NW WINDS AGAIN THU. OTHERWISE...VFR...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN SITUATED JUST WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
IN CENTRAL NC...THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...VINCENT/MWS
SHORT TERM...PWB
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 221436
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1036 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS....AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
LIFT UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE OTHERWISE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS VERIFYING WELL AND WILL LARGELY BE LEFT AS-
IS...ASIDE FROM MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN CLOUD COVER (CLR-BKN GRADIENT)
FROM THE TRIANGLE INTO THE NE COASTAL PLAIN. THE PRIOR DISCUSSION
SUMS UP THE FORECAST SO WELL THAT IT WILL BE LEFT INTACT THROUGH THE
MORNING UPDATE. -VINCENT

AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP/AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WEST-CENTRAL VA
THIS MORNING TO JUST OFFSHORE THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CENTER OF THE ASSOCIATED STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 M/12 HR...WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC THROUGH
12Z. THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLD POOL/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...HAS SUPPORTED THE
MAINTENANCE OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS INTO THE RAH NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS...AND
CLOUDINESS... WILL BOTH BECOME ENHANCED WITH DIURNAL HEATING OWING
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW - THE FORMER IN EXCESS OF MINUS 20 C
AND THE LATTER BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM...THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE RAH CWFA AS THE
UPPER LOW MAKES A TURN/LIFTS UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE TODAY. IT WILL
ALSO BE COOLER AND BREEZY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY DAYTIME WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH OWING TO THE DEEPENING OF A COASTAL LOW ACCOMPANYING THE
UPPER ONE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. CLEARING AREA-WIDE AND SIMILARLY
COOLER TONIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT NW WIND AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT...TO
MIDDLE 40S OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE COASTAL AND UPPER LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY UP THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
SPREAD EAST ACROSS NC THU. A NOTICEABLE NW BREEZE WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...
STRONGEST OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. DESPITE
SUNNY OR MOSTLY SO CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE
60S...TO AROUND 70 OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. AN
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING...ONE SPANNING
BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...WILL MOVE EAST AND INTO THE
TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES THU NIGHT. MID-HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM COMPONENT WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY WILL
CONTINUE ON OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY...WHILE A DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA.  BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF DEPICT THIS DISTURBANCE A RELATIVELY COMPACT VORT CENTER
BY THE TIME IT CROSSES NC FRIDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
STRONG DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL LIMIT DEEP MOISTURE AND THE ONLY ANTICIPATED SENSIBLE IMPACT IS
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH EASTWARD FROM THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...SETTLING OVER NC/VA ON MONDAY.  MODELS SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT..ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND... SLIPPING INTO
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS...ALONG WITH SHALLOW MIXING BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN THE GRADUAL RISE OF THICKNESSES INTO THE 1360-1370M
RANGE WOULD SUGGEST.  HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.  THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE A
LITTLE MORE TOWARD MIDWEEK AS A SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE CENTRAL US.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN VICINITY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT KRWI THROUGH AROUND 20Z. IN ADDITION TO THE
SHOWERS...VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS/CLOUD BASES MOSTLY BETWEEN 3500-7000
FT...AND TOPS IN SHOWERS UP TO 17 THOUSAND FT...PARTICULARLY IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW/AT KRDU AND
KRWI. OTHERWISE...NW SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE LOW-MID
TEENS KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S KTS...ONCE DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING COMMENCES BY 15Z...AND IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME
LIGHT...STILL FROM THE NW...AROUND SUNSET.

OUTLOOK: BREEZY NW WINDS AGAIN THU. OTHERWISE...VFR...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN SITUATED JUST WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
IN CENTRAL NC...THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...VINCENT/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 221147
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
747 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS....AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
LIFT UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE OTHERWISE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP/AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WEST-CENTRAL VA
THIS MORNING TO JUST OFFSHORE THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CENTER OF THE ASSOCIATED STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 M/12 HR...WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC THROUGH
12Z. THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLD POOL/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...HAS SUPPORTED THE
MAINTENANCE OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS INTO THE RAH NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS...AND
CLOUDINESS...WILL BOTH BECOME ENHANCED WITH DIURNAL HEATING OWING TO
THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW - THE FORMER IN EXCESS OF MINUS 20 C
AND THE LATTER BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM...THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE RAH CWFA AS THE
UPPER LOW MAKES A TURN/LIFTS UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE TODAY. IT WILL
ALSO BE COOLER AND BREEZY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY DAYTIME WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH OWING TO THE DEEPENING OF A COASTAL LOW ACCOMPANYING THE
UPPER ONE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. CLEARING AREA-WIDE AND SIMILARLY
COOLER TONIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT NW WIND AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT...TO
MIDDLE 40S OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE COASTAL AND UPPER LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY UP THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
SPREAD EAST ACROSS NC THU. A NOTICEABLE NW BREEZE WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...
STRONGEST OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. DESPITE
SUNNY OR MOSTLY SO CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE
60S...TO AROUND 70 OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. AN
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING...ONE SPANNING
BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...WILL MOVE EAST AND INTO THE
TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES THU NIGHT. MID-HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM COMPONENT WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY WILL
CONTINUE ON OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY...WHILE A DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA.  BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF DEPICT THIS DISTURBANCE A RELATIVELY COMPACT VORT CENTER
BY THE TIME IT CROSSES NC FRIDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
STRONG DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL LIMIT DEEP MOISTURE AND THE ONLY ANTICIPATED SENSIBLE IMPACT IS
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH EASTWARD FROM THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...SETTLING OVER NC/VA ON MONDAY.  MODELS SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT..ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND... SLIPPING INTO
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS...ALONG WITH SHALLOW MIXING BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN THE GRADUAL RISE OF THICKNESSES INTO THE 1360-1370M
RANGE WOULD SUGGEST.  HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.  THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE A
LITTLE MORE TOWARD MIDWEEK AS A SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE CENTRAL US.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN VICINITY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT KRWI THROUGH AROUND 20Z. IN ADDITION TO THE
SHOWERS...VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS/CLOUD BASES MOSTLY BETWEEN 3500-7000
FT...AND TOPS IN SHOWERS UP TO 17 THOUSAND FT...PARTICULARLY IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW/AT KRDU AND
KRWI. OTHERWISE...NW SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE LOW-MID
TEENS KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S KTS...ONCE DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING COMMENCES BY 15Z...AND IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME
LIGHT...STILL FROM THE NW...AROUND SUNSET.

OUTLOOK: BREEZY NW WINDS AGAIN THU. OTHERWISE...VFR...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN SITUATED JUST WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
IN CENTRAL NC...THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 220733
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
333 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS....AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
LIFT UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE OTHERWISE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP/AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WEST-CENTRAL VA
THIS MORNING TO JUST OFFSHORE THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CENTER OF THE ASSOCIATED STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 M/12 HR...WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC THROUGH
12Z. THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLD POOL/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...HAS SUPPORTED THE
MAINTENANCE OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS INTO THE RAH NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS...AND
CLOUDINESS...WILL BOTH BECOME ENHANCED WITH DIURNAL HEATING OWING TO
THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW - THE FORMER IN EXCESS OF MINUS 20 C
AND THE LATTER BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM...THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE RAH CWFA AS THE
UPPER LOW MAKES A TURN/LIFTS UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE TODAY. IT WILL
ALSO BE COOLER AND BREEZY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY DAYTIME WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH OWING TO THE DEEPENING OF A COASTAL LOW ACCOMPANYING THE
UPPER ONE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. CLEARING AREA-WIDE AND SIMILARLY
COOLER TONIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT NW WIND AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT...TO
MIDDLE 40S OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE COASTAL AND UPPER LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY UP THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
SPREAD EAST ACROSS NC THU. A NOTICEABLE NW BREEZE WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...
STRONGEST OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. DESPITE
SUNNY OR MOSTLY SO CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE
60S...TO AROUND 70 OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. AN
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING...ONE SPANNING
BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...WILL MOVE EAST AND INTO THE
TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES THU NIGHT. MID-HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM COMPONENT WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY WILL
CONTINUE ON OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY...WHILE A DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA.  BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF DEPICT THIS DISTURBANCE A RELATIVELY COMPACT VORT CENTER
BY THE TIME IT CROSSES NC FRIDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
STRONG DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL LIMIT DEEP MOISTURE AND THE ONLY ANTICIPATED SENSIBLE IMPACT IS
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH EASTWARD FROM THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...SETTLING OVER NC/VA ON MONDAY.  MODELS SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT..ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND... SLIPPING INTO
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS...ALONG WITH SHALLOW MIXING BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN THE GRADUAL RISE OF THICKNESSES INTO THE 1360-1370M
RANGE WOULD SUGGEST.  HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.  THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE A
LITTLE MORE TOWARD MIDWEEK AS A SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE CENTRAL US.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN VICINITY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT KRWI THROUGH AROUND 20Z...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS KRDU AS THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
ARRIVES THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER AN INITIAL BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS PASSES KFAY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AT KFAY AND AT TRIAD TERMINALS.
MEANWHILE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW
AT KRDU AND ESPECIALLY KRWI...VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS/CLOUD BASES MOSTLY BETWEEN
4000-8000 FT...AND TOPS IN SHOWERS UP TO 17 THOUSAND FT.
OTHERWISE...A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S KTS...ONCE
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING COMMENCES BY 15Z...AND IN RESPONSE TO A
TIGHTENING MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK: BREEZY NW WINDS AGAIN THU. OTHERWISE...VFR...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN SITUATED JUST WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
IN CENTRAL NC...THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 220725
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS....AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
LIFT UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE OTHERWISE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP/AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WEST-CENTRAL VA
THIS MORNING TO JUST OFFSHORE THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CENTER OF THE ASSOCIATED STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 M/12 HR...WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC THROUGH
12Z. THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLD POOL/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...HAS SUPPORTED THE
MAINTENANCE OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS INTO THE RAH NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS...AND
CLOUDINESS...WILL BOTH BECOME ENHANCED WITH DIURNAL HEATING OWING TO
THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW - THE FORMER IN EXCESS OF MINUS 20 C
AND THE LATTER BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM...THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE RAH CWFA AS THE
UPPER LOW MAKES A TURN/LIFTS UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE TODAY. IT WILL
ALSO BE COOLER AND BREEZY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY DAYTIME WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH OWING TO THE DEEPENING OF A COASTAL LOW ACCOMPANYING THE
UPPER ONE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. CLEARING AREA-WIDE AND SIMILARLY
COOLER TONIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT NW WIND AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT...TO
MIDDLE 40S OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. PERTURBATIONS
WITHIN THIS FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE HALF THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-7.5 DEG C/KM)
COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF ROANOKE RAPIDS/WARRENTON AND TARBORO.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AIR MASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.

N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE.

LOW LEVEL CAA MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S IN THE NW WITH
MID-UPPER 60S COMMON ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL RID ARE AREA OF ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS. LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
PERSIST...AIDING TO MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. OF SFC WINDS WERE TO
DECOUPLE (MAINLY WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT)...COULD SEE MIN TEMPS AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S AT A FEW SPOTS. FOR NOW WILL BOTTOM OUT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S IN THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WITH IN TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY WILL
CONTINUE ON OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY...WHILE A DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA.  BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF DEPICT THIS DISTURBANCE A RELATIVELY COMPACT VORT CENTER
BY THE TIME IT CROSSES NC FRIDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
STRONG DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL LIMIT DEEP MOISTURE AND THE ONLY ANTICIPATED SENSIBLE IMPACT IS
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH EASTWARD FROM THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...SETTLING OVER NC/VA ON MONDAY.  MODELS SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT..ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND... SLIPPING INTO
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS...ALONG WITH SHALLOW MIXING BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN THE GRADUAL RISE OF THICKNESSES INTO THE 1360-1370M
RANGE WOULD SUGGEST.  HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.  THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE A
LITTLE MORE TOWARD MIDWEEK AS A SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE CENTRAL US.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN VICINITY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT KRWI THROUGH AROUND 20Z...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS KRDU AS THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
ARRIVES THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER AN INITIAL BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS PASSES KFAY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AT KFAY AND AT TRIAD TERMINALS.
MEANWHILE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW
AT KRDU AND ESPECIALLY KRWI...VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS/CLOUD BASES MOSTLY BETWEEN
4000-8000 FT...AND TOPS IN SHOWERS UP TO 17 THOUSAND FT.
OTHERWISE...A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S KTS...ONCE
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING COMMENCES BY 15Z...AND IN RESPONSE TO A
TIGHTENING MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK: BREEZY NW WINDS AGAIN THU. OTHERWISE...VFR...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN SITUATED JUST WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
IN CENTRAL NC...THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 220722
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS....AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
LIFT UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE OTHERWISE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 912 PM TUESDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED MOVING INTO THE NC COASTAL
PLAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA SHORTLY...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SEWD INTO SOUTHERN VA/NORTHEAST NC. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT...NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER...JUST EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. OTHERWISE...FROPA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS PAST
EVENING HAS BEEN DRY WITH ACCOMPANYING BROKEN/OVERCAST MID CLOUD
DECK SPREADING EASTWARD.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE ZONES...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH NWLY WIND GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH...CAA WILL GOVERN OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE MID
40S OVER THE WEST TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. PERTURBATIONS
WITHIN THIS FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE HALF THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-7.5 DEG C/KM)
COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF ROANOKE RAPIDS/WARRENTON AND TARBORO.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AIR MASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.

N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE.

LOW LEVEL CAA MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S IN THE NW WITH
MID-UPPER 60S COMMON ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL RID ARE AREA OF ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS. LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
PERSIST...AIDING TO MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. OF SFC WINDS WERE TO
DECOUPLE (MAINLY WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT)...COULD SEE MIN TEMPS AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S AT A FEW SPOTS. FOR NOW WILL BOTTOM OUT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S IN THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WITH IN TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY WILL
CONTINUE ON OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY...WHILE A DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA.  BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF DEPICT THIS DISTURBANCE A RELATIVELY COMPACT VORT CENTER
BY THE TIME IT CROSSES NC FRIDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
STRONG DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL LIMIT DEEP MOISTURE AND THE ONLY ANTICIPATED SENSIBLE IMPACT IS
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH EASTWARD FROM THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...SETTLING OVER NC/VA ON MONDAY.  MODELS SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT..ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND... SLIPPING INTO
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS...ALONG WITH SHALLOW MIXING BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN THE GRADUAL RISE OF THICKNESSES INTO THE 1360-1370M
RANGE WOULD SUGGEST.  HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.  THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE A
LITTLE MORE TOWARD MIDWEEK AS A SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE CENTRAL US.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN VICINITY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT KRWI THROUGH AROUND 20Z...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS KRDU AS THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
ARRIVES THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER AN INITIAL BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS PASSES KFAY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AT KFAY AND AT TRIAD TERMINALS.
MEANWHILE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW
AT KRDU AND ESPECIALLY KRWI...VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS/CLOUD BASES MOSTLY BETWEEN
4000-8000 FT...AND TOPS IN SHOWERS UP TO 17 THOUSAND FT.
OTHERWISE...A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S KTS...ONCE
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING COMMENCES BY 15Z...AND IN RESPONSE TO A
TIGHTENING MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK: BREEZY NW WINDS AGAIN THU. OTHERWISE...VFR...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN SITUATED JUST WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
IN CENTRAL NC...THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 220624
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
223 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS....AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
LIFT UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE OTHERWISE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 912 PM TUESDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED MOVING INTO THE NC COASTAL
PLAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA SHORTLY...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SEWD INTO SOUTHERN VA/NORTHEAST NC. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT...NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER...JUST EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. OTHERWISE...FROPA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS PAST
EVENING HAS BEEN DRY WITH ACCOMPANYING BROKEN/OVERCAST MID CLOUD
DECK SPREADING EASTWARD.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE ZONES...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH NWLY WIND GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH...CAA WILL GOVERN OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE MID
40S OVER THE WEST TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. PERTURBATIONS
WITHIN THIS FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE HALF THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-7.5 DEG C/KM)
COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF ROANOKE RAPIDS/WARRENTON AND TARBORO.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AIR MASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.

N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE.

LOW LEVEL CAA MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S IN THE NW WITH
MID-UPPER 60S COMMON ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL RID ARE AREA OF ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS. LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
PERSIST...AIDING TO MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. OF SFC WINDS WERE TO
DECOUPLE (MAINLY WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT)...COULD SEE MIN TEMPS AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S AT A FEW SPOTS. FOR NOW WILL BOTTOM OUT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S IN THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WITH IN TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL BRIEFLY
APPROACH/BUILD OVER THE AREA. NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN VARYING CLOUDINESS
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
TOWARD MORNING. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH POSITIONED TO OUR NW TONIGHT
WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL ADVECTION ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP
MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES-CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER... WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM... WE MAY SEE SUSTAINED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE... WITH SOME GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 MPH OR SO DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNES VALUES AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1350S TO 1360S.
THUS... GIVEN FULL SUN IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT OF A
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
WEAKENING WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S... WITH A
FEW UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE USUAL RURAL COLD SPOTS.

ONE LAST S/W DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH STRONGER
WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS AND NAM. HOWEVER... WITH SUCH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE PRECEDING THE FEATURE AND LACK OF ANY REAL MOISTURE
RETURN IN ADVANCE OF IT MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP BEING
GENERATED ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS IT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS... WILL JUST
SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY. HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM
ENDS UP BEING WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON HIGH TEMPS THOUGH (WITH CLOUD
COVER BEING THE VARIABLE IN QUESTION). FOR NOW WILL JUST SHOW PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY... WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: QUITE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK... YIELDING A WARMING TREND. EXPECT TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS TO START THE PERIOD... INCREASING TO HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND AROUND 70/LOWER 70S... WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE PATTERN CHANCE TO RIDING ALOFT... SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD YIELD A NICE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE... GIVEN THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS EXPECT FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S... TO AROUND 50 ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN VICINITY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT KRWI THROUGH AROUND 20Z...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS KRDU AS THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
ARRIVES THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER AN INITIAL BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS PASSES KFAY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AT KFAY AND AT TRIAD TERMINALS.
MEANWHILE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW
AT KRDU AND ESPECIALLY KRWI...VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS/CLOUD BASES MOSTLY BETWEEN
4000-8000 FT...AND TOPS IN SHOWERS UP TO 17 THOUSAND FT.
OTHERWISE...A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S KTS...ONCE
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING COMMENCES BY 15Z...AND IN RESPONSE TO A
TIGHTENING MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK: BREEZY NW WINDS AGAIN THU. OTHERWISE...VFR...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN SITUATED JUST WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
IN CENTRAL NC...THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 220623
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
223 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS....AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
LIFT UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE OTHERWISE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 912 PM TUESDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED MOVING INTO THE NC COASTAL
PLAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA SHORTLY...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SEWD INTO SOUTHERN VA/NORTHEAST NC. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT...NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER...JUST EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. OTHERWISE...FROPA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS PAST
EVENING HAS BEEN DRY WITH ACCOMPANYING BROKEN/OVERCAST MID CLOUD
DECK SPREADING EASTWARD.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE ZONES...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH NWLY WIND GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH...CAA WILL GOVERN OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE MID
40S OVER THE WEST TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. PERTURBATIONS
WITHIN THIS FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE HALF THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-7.5 DEG C/KM)
COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF ROANOKE RAPIDS/WARRENTON AND TARBORO.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AIR MASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.

N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE.

LOW LEVEL CAA MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S IN THE NW WITH
MID-UPPER 60S COMMON ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL RID ARE AREA OF ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS. LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
PERSIST...AIDING TO MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. OF SFC WINDS WERE TO
DECOUPLE (MAINLY WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT)...COULD SEE MIN TEMPS AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S AT A FEW SPOTS. FOR NOW WILL BOTTOM OUT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S IN THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WITH IN TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL BRIEFLY
APPROACH/BUILD OVER THE AREA. NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN VARYING CLOUDINESS
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
TOWARD MORNING. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH POSITIONED TO OUR NW TONIGHT
WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL ADVECTION ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP
MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES-CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER... WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM... WE MAY SEE SUSTAINED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE... WITH SOME GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 MPH OR SO DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNES VALUES AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1350S TO 1360S.
THUS... GIVEN FULL SUN IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT OF A
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
WEAKENING WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S... WITH A
FEW UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE USUAL RURAL COLD SPOTS.

ONE LAST S/W DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH STRONGER
WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS AND NAM. HOWEVER... WITH SUCH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE PRECEDING THE FEATURE AND LACK OF ANY REAL MOISTURE
RETURN IN ADVANCE OF IT MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP BEING
GENERATED ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS IT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS... WILL JUST
SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY. HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM
ENDS UP BEING WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON HIGH TEMPS THOUGH (WITH CLOUD
COVER BEING THE VARIABLE IN QUESTION). FOR NOW WILL JUST SHOW PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY... WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: QUITE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK... YIELDING A WARMING TREND. EXPECT TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS TO START THE PERIOD... INCREASING TO HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND AROUND 70/LOWER 70S... WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE PATTERN CHANCE TO RIDING ALOFT... SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD YIELD A NICE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE... GIVEN THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS EXPECT FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S... TO AROUND 50 ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUESDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN VICINITY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT KRWI THROUGH AROUND 20Z...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS KRDU AS THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
ARRIVES THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER AN INITIAL BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS PASSES KFAY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AT KFAY AND AT TRIAD TERMINALS.
MEANWHILE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW
AT KRDU AND ESPECIALLY KRWI...VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS/CLOUD BASES MOSTLY BETWEEN
4000-8000 FT...AND TOPS IN SHOWERS UP TO 17 THOUSAND FT.
OTHERWISE...A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S KTS...ONCE
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING COMMENCES BY 15Z...AND IN RESPONSE TO A
TIGHTENING MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK: BREEZY NW WINDS AGAIN THU. OTHERWISE...VFR...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN SITUATED JUST WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
IN CENTRAL NC...THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...MWS





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