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000
FXUS62 KRAH 031819
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
220 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY TODAY. A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING COLD
OVER NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM TUESDAY...

THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NC THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH 16Z. ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE AND IT`S ASSOCIATED DPVA...SEEN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS PER 13Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL SLIDE OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PROVIDING FORCING FOR STORM
INITIATION. ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ON IT`S
HEELS...FURTHER PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES: SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WITH THIS MORNING`S
UPPER DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...WHERE CLEARING IS ALREADY OCCURRING
AS OF 14Z AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WE EXPERIENCE SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS WAVE. 14Z SPC MESO ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWS
500J/KG OF CAPE MOVING INTO THE SW PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHER VALUES
ADVECTING INTO THE CWA BY AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR BY 16-18Z IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...AS DPVA
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE TO OUR SW. STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE
LARGELY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO A CONVECTIVE
LINE OVER THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...CONVECTION WILL FIRST AFFECT THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AND TRIAD AFTER 16Z...THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND TRIANGLE
AFTER 18Z AND THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AFTER 20Z. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...AS UPPER-
SUPPORT REMAINS OVER THE AREA PROVIDING FORCING FOR CONVECTION.
DESPITE A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE...PWATS OVER 1.5" EAST OF US-1...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO HAVE VERY HEAVY RAIN...STORM MOTIONS
SUGGEST TRAINING IS UNLIKELY...AND WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS
UNLIKELY.

SEVERE THREAT: WITH SBCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1500J/KG...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA...STORMS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
ENERGY TO FEED OFF OF. SPEEDY FLOW ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING OVERHEAD...WILL RESULT IN DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 45KTS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED
WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES APPROACHING 100M2/S2, SHOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT OVERHEAD AND AN
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT...STORM MODE MAY BECOME MESSY QUICKLY...WITH
ALL STORM MODES POSSIBLE OVER THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...500-700HPA LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STEEP AND FREEZING LEVELS
ARE ~9000FT...AND STRONG WINDS...DCAPE VALUES >800-1000J/KG. THE
SEVERE THREAT MAY SHIFT AWAY FROM HAIL AND MORE TOWARD WIND BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AS STORMS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO A CONVECTIVE
LINE..WHICH AS SUGGESTED BY THE CAMS THIS MORNING...COULD CONTAIN
BOWING SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA. THE TOR THREAT
WILL REMAIN LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY DUE TO
STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS AND A LACK OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY.
-SCR/WSS

THE FRONTAL ZONE AND EMBEDDED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...AND ASSOCIATED
DEEP MOISTURE AND SHOWERS...WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EAST OVERNIGHT...
WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF I-95 BY
WED MORNING...AND DRYING ELSEWHERE. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID-
UPPER 50S. -26

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM TUESDAY...

A PAIR OF NOTABLE CURLS IN WATER VAPOR OVER OVER IOWA AND NEBRASKA
THIS MORNING WILL ELONGATE AND MOVE EAST BENEATH A DEEPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING FROM A WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.
THIS LEAD WAVE WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC EARLY WEDNESDAY... AND IN
RESPONSE A BROAD WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN NC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE AIRMASS CHANGE IN THE
WAKE OF TODAYS COLD FRONT... SLIGHTLY ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND WEAK LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE
BENEATH STRONG COOLING ALOFT AND 60M HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL DROP TO AROUND 9000
FT...SO SOME SMALL HAIL CANT BE RULED OUT WITH WEAK DESTABILIZATION.
HIGHS WILL BE INT HE LOW/MID 70S...WITH FURTHER COOLING BENEATH AN
UPPER LOW THAT WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE WEEK.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF AS THE UPPER FORCING DEPARTS TO THE
EAST AND NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS IN.  HOWEVER...WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DROP SOUTH THROUGH VA EARLY THURSDAY.
MAINLY INT HE LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BUT RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED OMEGA BLOCK WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO BOTTOM
OUT OVER ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INITIAL SURGE OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE EARLY THURSDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE... THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CUTOFF LOW ROTATES AROUND AND BEGINS TO
LIFT OUT OF THE UPPER TROF THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL BE FEWER
IN NUMBER AND FOCUSED ON THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY...AND ENDING IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL...FROM MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TO VERY LOW
70S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW
PUSHES A DRY AND WEAK FRONT BRIEFLY SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY.
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE...HOWEVER...WILL BE TO SHIFT THE
OMEGA BLOCK EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE WEST RIDGE LOBE OF THE BLOCK TO
EDGE EAST OVER THE AREA...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WARMING TREND...
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL TOLD...DRY WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS WARMING FROM THE MID 70S SATURDAY TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...TO MOSTLY MID 80S TUESDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL FOLLOW THE
TREND...FROM LOW 50S SATURDAY MORNING TO THE LOWER 60S BY TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...

VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC...WAVERING BETWEEN
VFR AND MVFR DUE TO CEILINGS...WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A GENERAL TREND TOWARD VFR BY EVENING. AS THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE
APPROACH OF AN MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL ERUPT BY MID AFTERNOON IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT...SPREADING EAST BY 22Z-00Z. THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL PRODUCE LARGE AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 50-55KTS. THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL DECREASE AFTER 01Z THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HIGHLY VARIABLE AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND ATTENDANT
SUB VFR CEILINGS THROUGH FRIDAY. VFR PARAMETERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL NC FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...SCR/WSS
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 031745
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY TODAY. A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING COLD
OVER NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM TUESDAY...

THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NC THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH 16Z. ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE AND IT`S ASSOCIATED DPVA...SEEN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS PER 13Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL SLIDE OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PROVIDING FORCING FOR STORM
INITIATION. ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ON IT`S
HEELS...FURTHER PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES: SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WITH THIS MORNING`S
UPPER DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...WHERE CLEARING IS ALREADY OCCURRING
AS OF 14Z AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WE EXPERIENCE SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS WAVE. 14Z SPC MESO ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWS
500J/KG OF CAPE MOVING INTO THE SW PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHER VALUES
ADVECTING INTO THE CWA BY AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR BY 16-18Z IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...AS DPVA
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE TO OUR SW. STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE
LARGELY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO A CONVECTIVE
LINE OVER THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...CONVECTION WILL FIRST AFFECT THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AND TRIAD AFTER 16Z...THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND TRIANGLE
AFTER 18Z AND THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AFTER 20Z. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...AS UPPER-
SUPPORT REMAINS OVER THE AREA PROVIDING FORCING FOR CONVECTION.
DESPITE A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE...PWATS OVER 1.5" EAST OF US-1...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO HAVE VERY HEAVY RAIN...STORM MOTIONS
SUGGEST TRAINING IS UNLIKELY...AND WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS
UNLIKELY.

SEVERE THREAT: WITH SBCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1500J/KG...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA...STORMS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
ENERGY TO FEED OFF OF. SPEEDY FLOW ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING OVERHEAD...WILL RESULT IN DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 45KTS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED
WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES APPROACHING 100M2/S2, SHOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT OVERHEAD AND AN
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT...STORM MODE MAY BECOME MESSY QUICKLY...WITH
ALL STORM MODES POSSIBLE OVER THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...500-700HPA LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STEEP AND FREEZING LEVELS
ARE ~9000FT...AND STRONG WINDS...DCAPE VALUES >800-1000J/KG. THE
SEVERE THREAT MAY SHIFT AWAY FROM HAIL AND MORE TOWARD WIND BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AS STORMS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO A CONVECTIVE
LINE..WHICH AS SUGGESTED BY THE CAMS THIS MORNING...COULD CONTAIN
BOWING SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA. THE TOR THREAT
WILL REMAIN LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY DUE TO
STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS AND A LACK OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY.
-SCR/WSS

THE FRONTAL ZONE AND EMBEDDED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...AND ASSOCIATED
DEEP MOISTURE AND SHOWERS...WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EAST OVERNIGHT...
WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF I-95 BY
WED MORNING...AND DRYING ELSEWHERE. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID-
UPPER 50S. -26

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM TUESDAY...

A PAIR OF NOTABLE CURLS IN WATER VAPOR OVER OVER IOWA AND NEBRASKA
THIS MORNING WILL ELONGATE AND MOVE EAST BENEATH A DEEPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING FROM A WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.
THIS LEAD WAVE WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC EARLY WEDNESDAY... AND IN
RESPONSE A BROAD WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN NC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE AIRMASS CHANGE IN THE
WAKE OF TODAYS COLD FRONT... SLIGHTLY ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND WEAK LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE
BENEATH STRONG COOLING ALOFT AND 60M HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL DROP TO AROUND 9000
FT...SO SOME SMALL HAIL CANT BE RULED OUT WITH WEAK DESTABILIZATION.
HIGHS WILL BE INT HE LOW/MID 70S...WITH FURTHER COOLING BENEATH AN
UPPER LOW THAT WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE WEEK.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF AS THE UPPER FORCING DEPARTS TO THE
EAST AND NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS IN.  HOWEVER...WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DROP SOUTH THROUGH VA EARLY THURSDAY.
MAINLY INT HE LOWER 50S.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM TUESDAY...

A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AND CUT OFF OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY...DEEPENING 3 TO 4 STD BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
AN OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND A
PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OVER NC SHOULD AGAIN
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS... SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
LITTLE GRAUPEL.  H10-H85 THICKNESSES DIPPING TO AROUND 1340M SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70S ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS
INCREASINGLY SUPPORTED BY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND DECREASE RAPIDLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE EAST.  RIDGING
ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE REGION AND ALLOW FOR A WARMING
TRENDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE GFS AND ECMWF
THEN INDICATE A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA...WHICH
ULTIMATELY WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH NC
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONT MOVING TO OUR
LATITUDE IS A LITTLE LOW AT THIS POINT AND THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...

VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC...WAVERING BETWEEN
VFR AND MVFR DUE TO CEILINGS...WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A GENERAL TREND TOWARD VFR BY EVENING. AS THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE
APPROACH OF AN MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL ERUPT BY MID AFTERNOON IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT...SPREADING EAST BY 22Z-00Z. THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL PRODUCE LARGE AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 50-55KTS. THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL DECREASE AFTER 01Z THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HIGHLY VARIABLE AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND ATTENDANT
SUB VFR CEILINGS THROUGH FRIDAY. VFR PARAMETERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL NC FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...SCR/WSS
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 031520
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1120 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY TODAY. A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING COLD
OVER NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM TUESDAY...

THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NC THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH 16Z. ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE AND IT`S ASSOCIATED DPVA...SEEN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS PER 13Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL SLIDE OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PROVIDING FORCING FOR STORM
INITIATION. ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ON IT`S
HEELS...FURTHER PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES: SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WITH THIS MORNING`S
UPPER DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...WHERE CLEARING IS ALREADY OCCURRING
AS OF 14Z AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WE EXPERIENCE SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS MORNINGS WAVE. 14Z SPC MESO ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWS
500J/KG OF CAPE MOVING INTO THE SW PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHER VALUES
ADVECTING INTO THE CWA BY AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR BY 16-18Z IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...AS DPVA
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE TO OUR SW. STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE
LARGELY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO A CONVECTIVE
LINE OVER THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...CONVECTION WILL FIRST AFFECT THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AND TRIAD AFTER 16Z...THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND TRIANGLE
AFTER 18Z AND THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AFTER 20Z. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...AS UPPER-
SUPPORT REMAINS OVER THE AREA PROVIDING FORCING FOR CONVECTION.
DESPITE A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE...PWATS OVER 1.5" EAST OF US-1...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO HAVE VERY HEAVY RAIN...STORM MOTIONS
SUGGEST TRAINING IS UNLIKELY...AND WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS
UNLIKELY.

SEVERE THREAT: WITH SBCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1500J/KG...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA...STORMS WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
ENERGY TO FEED OFF OF. SPEEDY FLOW ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING OVERHEAD...WILL RESULT IN DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 45KTS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED
WITH 0-3KM SRH VALUES APPROACHING 100M2/S2, SHOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT OVERHEAD AND AN
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT...STORM MODE MAY BECOME MESSY QUICKLY...WITH
ALL STORM MODES POSSIBLE OVER THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...500-700HPA LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STEEP AND FREEZING LEVELS
ARE ~9000FT...AND STRONG WINDS...DCAPE VALUES >800-1000J/KG. THE
SEVERE THREAT MAY SHIFT AWAY FROM HAIL AND MORE TOWARD WIND BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AS STORMS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO A CONVECTIVE
LINE..WHICH AS SUGGESTED BY THE CAMS THIS MORNING...COULD CONTAIN
BOWING SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA. THE TOR THREAT
WILL REMAIN LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...MOSTLY DUE TO
STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS AND A LACK OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY.
-SCR/WSS

THE FRONTAL ZONE AND EMBEDDED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...AND ASSOCIATED
DEEP MOISTURE AND SHOWERS...WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EAST OVERNIGHT...
WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF I-95 BY
WED MORNING...AND DRYING ELSEWHERE. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID-
UPPER 50S. -26

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM TUESDAY...

A PAIR OF NOTABLE CURLS IN WATER VAPOR OVER OVER IOWA AND NEBRASKA
THIS MORNING WILL ELONGATE AND MOVE EAST BENEATH A DEEPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING FROM A WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.
THIS LEAD WAVE WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC EARLY WEDNESDAY... AND IN
RESPONSE A BROAD WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN NC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE AIRMASS CHANGE IN THE
WAKE OF TODAYS COLD FRONT... SLIGHTLY ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND WEAK LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE
BENEATH STRONG COOLING ALOFT AND 60M HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL DROP TO AROUND 9000
FT...SO SOME SMALL HAIL CANT BE RULED OUT WITH WEAK DESTABILIZATION.
HIGHS WILL BE INT HE LOW/MID 70S...WITH FURTHER COOLING BENEATH AN
UPPER LOW THAT WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE WEEK.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF AS THE UPPER FORCING DEPARTS TO THE
EAST AND NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS IN.  HOWEVER...WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DROP SOUTH THROUGH VA EARLY THURSDAY.
MAINLY INT HE LOWER 50S.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM TUESDAY...

A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AND CUT OFF OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY...DEEPENING 3 TO 4 STD BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
AN OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND A
PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OVER NC SHOULD AGAIN
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS... SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
LITTLE GRAUPEL.  H10-H85 THICKNESSES DIPPING TO AROUND 1340M SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70S ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS
INCREASINGLY SUPPORTED BY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND DECREASE RAPIDLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE EAST.  RIDGING
ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE REGION AND ALLOW FOR A WARMING
TRENDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE GFS AND ECMWF
THEN INDICATE A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA...WHICH
ULTIMATELY WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH NC
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONT MOVING TO OUR
LATITUDE IS A LITTLE LOW AT THIS POINT AND THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...

AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER EASTERN NC--
FORCED IN PART BY A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN SC-- WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF CENTRAL NC...WITH A RETURN TO DRY VFR
CONDITIONS...BETWEEN 12-16Z.

MUCH LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY...AND
CONSEQUENTLY SET THE STAGE FOR THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS THAT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LARGE HAIL...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLY VERY LARGE...AND
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 60-70 KTS --IN SPLITTING SUPERCELLS-- WILL
POSE AN ADDED RISK BEYOND TYPICAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.
DESPITE THE LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE OF SUCH STORMS AND CONDITIONS
OVER NC...THE ASSOCIATED PROBABILITY OF SUCH OCCURRENCES AT ANY GIVEN
POINT/TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS...AT LEAST UNTIL
STORMS ULTIMATELY DEVELOP.

MULTIPLE SLOW-MOVING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
IN THE VICINITY OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS/STORMS THAT WILL GROW IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH HEATING EACH AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY AT
EASTERN TAF SITES.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...SCR/WSS
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS62 KRAH 031039
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
639 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY TODAY. A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING COLD
OVER NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER MD WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY TODAY.
A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN VA/CENTRAL NC ALONG A
TRAILING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL
STRETCH THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE
TO HEIGHT FALLS /INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/
ACCOMPANYING A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH EVOLVING FROM SOUTHEAST
CANADA TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF ISOLATED MINI-SUPERCELLS OVER BOTH DILLON
AND SUMTER COUNTY SC --ON THE LEAD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IN A HSLC
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /35 KTS OF 0-1
KM BULK AND 200-250 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH/ AND AMIDST 35-40 KTS OF MID
LEVEL FLOW PER REGIONAL VWP DATA...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL NC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ASSOCIATED MESO-VORTICES
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR A
WEAK TORNADO AS THEY TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS CUMBERLAND/SAMPSON/WAYNE
COUNTIES THROUGH AROUND 11Z. A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM THE DELMARVA TO WESTERN NC WILL LIKELY
INTERCEPT THE STORMS AND SERVE AS THE NORTHERN BOUND FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT. OTHERWISE...PERSISTENT ANA-EFFECTIVE FRONTAL RAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW(S)...AT TIMES MODERATE TO HEAVY...MAY LEAD
TO VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE PARENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW CROSSING EASTERN
GA/WESTERN SC...BETWEEN 12-15Z.

MUCH LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL THEN DESTABILIZE WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE --THOUGH ONLY WEAKLY TO MODERATELY SO WITH BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS--
IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY RE-DEVELOP OVER WEST-CENTRAL NC /ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND/OR SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT/ THEN
MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID LEVEL
FLOW AND ASSOCIATED EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM THE
WEST INTO THE 40-60 KT RANGE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH. THE CHARACTER OF THE STRONG SHEAR...INDICATED BY LONG
AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS FROM THE SFC TO 6 KM...WILL FAVOR SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS - ONES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL (SOME POSSIBLY
VERY LARGE) AND WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 60-70 KTS. THE GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST ROUGHLY EAST OF US HIGHWAY 1...WHERE MLCAPE
WILL BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED IN AN AXIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...VERSUS LOWER 60S OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
WHERE A COMPONENT OF WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR.

THE FRONTAL ZONE AND EMBEDDED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...AND ASSOCIATED
DEEP MOISTURE AND SHOWERS...WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EAST OVERNIGHT...
WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF I-95 BY
WED MORNING...AND DRYING ELSEWHERE. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID-
UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM TUESDAY...

A PAIR OF NOTABLE CURLS IN WATER VAPOR OVER OVER IOWA AND NEBRASKA
THIS MORNING WILL ELONGATE AND MOVE EAST BENEATH A DEEPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING FROM A WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.
THIS LEAD WAVE WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC EARLY WEDNESDAY... AND IN
RESPONSE A BROAD WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN NC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE AIRMASS CHANGE IN THE
WAKE OF TODAYS COLD FRONT... SLIGHTLY ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND WEAK LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE
BENEATH STRONG COOLING ALOFT AND 60M HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL DROP TO AROUND 9000
FT...SO SOME SMALL HAIL CANT BE RULED OUT WITH WEAK DESTABILIZATION.
HIGHS WILL BE INT HE LOW/MID 70S...WITH FURTHER COOLING BENEATH AN
UPPER LOW THAT WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE WEEK.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF AS THE UPPER FORCING DEPARTS TO THE
EAST AND NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS IN.  HOWEVER...WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DROP SOUTH THROUGH VA EARLY THURSDAY.
MAINLY INT HE LOWER 50S.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM TUESDAY...

A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AND CUT OFF OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY...DEEPENING 3 TO 4 STD BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
AN OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND A
PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OVER NC SHOULD AGAIN
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS... SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
LITTLE GRAUPEL.  H10-H85 THICKNESSES DIPPING TO AROUND 1340M SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70S ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS
INCREASINGLY SUPPORTED BY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND DECREASE RAPIDLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE EAST.  RIDGING
ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE REGION AND ALLOW FOR A WARMING
TRENDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE GFS AND ECMWF
THEN INDICATE A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA...WHICH
ULTIMATELY WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH NC
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONT MOVING TO OUR
LATITUDE IS A LITTLE LOW AT THIS POINT AND THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...

AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER EASTERN NC--
FORCED IN PART BY A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN SC-- WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF CENTRAL NC...WITH A RETURN TO DRY VFR
CONDITIONS...BETWEEN 12-16Z.

MUCH LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY...AND
CONSEQUENTLY SET THE STAGE FOR THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS THAT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LARGE HAIL...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLY VERY LARGE...AND
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 60-70 KTS --IN SPLITTING SUPERCELLS-- WILL
POSE AN ADDED RISK BEYOND TYPICAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.
DESPITE THE LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE OF SUCH STORMS AND CONDITIONS
OVER NC...THE ASSOCIATED PROBABILITY OF SUCH OCCURRENCES AT ANY GIVEN
POINT/TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS...AT LEAST UNTIL
STORMS ULTIMATELY DEVELOP.

MULTIPLE SLOW-MOVING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
IN THE VICINITY OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS/STORMS THAT WILL GROW IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH HEATING EACH AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY AT
EASTERN TAF SITES.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS62 KRAH 030807
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
405 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY TODAY. A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING COLD
OVER NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER MD WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY TODAY.
A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN VA/CENTRAL NC ALONG A
TRAILING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL
STRETCH THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE
TO HEIGHT FALLS /INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/
ACCOMPANYING A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH EVOLVING FROM SOUTHEAST
CANADA TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF ISOLATED MINI-SUPERCELLS OVER BOTH DILLON
AND SUMTER COUNTY SC --ON THE LEAD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IN A HSLC
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /35 KTS OF 0-1
KM BULK AND 200-250 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH/ AND AMIDST 35-40 KTS OF MID
LEVEL FLOW PER REGIONAL VWP DATA...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL NC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ASSOCIATED MESO-VORTICES
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR A
WEAK TORNADO AS THEY TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS CUMBERLAND/SAMPSON/WAYNE
COUNTIES THROUGH AROUND 11Z. A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM THE DELMARVA TO WESTERN NC WILL LIKELY
INTERCEPT THE STORMS AND SERVE AS THE NORTHERN BOUND FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT. OTHERWISE...PERSISTENT ANA-EFFECTIVE FRONTAL RAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW(S)...AT TIMES MODERATE TO HEAVY...MAY LEAD
TO VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE PARENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW CROSSING EASTERN
GA/WESTERN SC...BETWEEN 12-15Z.

MUCH LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL THEN DESTABILIZE WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...AND RISING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY...AND CONSEQUENTLY SET THE
STAGE FOR THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THAT
WILL DEVELOP OVER WEST-CENTRAL NC - ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE
SURFACE TROUGH AND/OR SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL THEN
CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID LEVEL FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM THE WEST INTO
THE 40-60 KT RANGE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH. THE CHARACTER OF THE STRONG SHEAR...INDICATED BY
LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS FROM THE SFC-6 KM...WILL FAVOR SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS - ONES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL (SOME POSSIBLY
VERY LARGE) AND WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 60-70 KTS.

THE FRONTAL ZONE AND EMBEDDED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...AND ASSOCIATED
DEEP MOISTURE AND SHOWERS...WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EAST OVERNIGHT...
WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF I-95 BY
WED MORNING. DRY ELSEWHERE. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 AM TUESDAY...

A PAIR OF NOTABLE CURLS IN WATER VAPOR OVER OVER IOWA AND NEBRASKA
THIS MORNING WILL ELONGATE AND MOVE EAST BENEATH A DEEPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING FROM A WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.
THIS LEAD WAVE WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC EARLY WEDNESDAY... AND IN
RESPONSE A BROAD WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN NC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE AIRMASS CHANGE IN THE
WAKE OF TODAYS COLD FRONT... SLIGHTLY ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND WEAK LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE
BENEATH STRONG COOLING ALOFT AND 60M HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL DROP TO AROUND 9000
FT...SO SOME SMALL HAIL CANT BE RULED OUT WITH WEAK DESTABLIZATION.
HIGHS WILL BE INT HE LOW/MID 70S...WITH FURTHER COOLING BENEATH AN
UPPER LOW THAT WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE WEEK.

ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF AS THE UPPER FORCING DEPARTS TO THE
EAST AND NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS IN.  HOWEVER...WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE MIDWEST...
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DROP SOUTH THROUGH VA EARLY THURSDAY.
MAINLY INT HE LOWER 50S.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM TUESDAY...

A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AND CUT OFF OVER THE CAROLINAS ON
THURSDAY...DEEPENING 3 TO 4 STD BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
AN OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER THE CONUS. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND A
PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OVER NC SHOULD AGAIN
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS... SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
LITTLE GRAUPEL.  H10-H85 THICKNESSES DIPPING TO AROUND 1340M SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70S ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS
INCREASINGLY SUPPORTED BY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND DECREASE RAPIDLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE EAST.  RIDGING
ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE REGION AND ALLOW FOR A WARMING
TRENDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE GFS AND ECMWF
THEN INDICATE A SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA...WHICH
ULTIMATELY WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH NC
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONT MOVING TO OUR
LATITUDE IS A LITTLE LOW AT THIS POINT AND THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER SC --AND PARENT MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE-- WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND INTERACT WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND TRAILING RAIN NOW SETTLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN...AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THIS REGIME WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND OUT OF CENTRAL NC...WITH A RETURN TO DRY VFR
CONDITIONS...GENERALLY BETWEEN 12-16Z.

MUCH LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY...AND
CONSEQUENTLY SET THE STAGE FOR THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS THAT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LARGE HAIL...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLY VERY LARGE...AND
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 60-70 KTS --IN SPLITTING SUPERCELLS-- WILL
POSE AN ADDED RISK BEYOND TYPICAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.
DESPITE THE LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE OF SUCH STORMS AND CONDITIONS
OVER NC...THE ASSOCIATED PROBABILITY OF SUCH OCCURRENCES AT ANY GIVEN
POINT/TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS...AT LEAST UNTIL
STORMS ULTIMATELY DEVELOP.

MULTIPLE SLOW-MOVING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
IN THE VICINITY OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS/STORMS THAT WILL GROW IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH HEATING EACH AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY AT
EASTERN TAF SITES.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS62 KRAH 030802
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
400 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY TODAY. A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING COLD
OVER NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER MD WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY TODAY.
A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN VA/CENTRAL NC ALONG A
TRAILING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL
STRETCH THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE
TO HEIGHT FALLS /INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/
ACCOMPANYING A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH EVOLVING FROM SOUTHEAST
CANADA TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF ISOLATED MINI-SUPERCELLS OVER BOTH DILLON
AND SUMTER COUNTY SC --ON THE LEAD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IN A HSLC
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /35 KTS OF 0-1
KM BULK AND 200-250 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH/ AND AMIDST 35-40 KTS OF MID
LEVEL FLOW PER REGIONAL VWP DATA...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL NC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ASSOCIATED MESO-VORTICES
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR A
WEAK TORNADO AS THEY TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS CUMBERLAND/SAMPSON/WAYNE
COUNTIES THROUGH AROUND 11Z. A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM THE DELMARVA TO WESTERN NC WILL LIKELY
INTERCEPT THE STORMS AND SERVE AS THE NORTHERN BOUND FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT. OTHERWISE...PERSISTENT ANA-EFFECTIVE FRONTAL RAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW(S)...AT TIMES MODERATE TO HEAVY...MAY LEAD
TO VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE PARENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW CROSSING EASTERN
GA/WESTERN SC...BETWEEN 12-15Z.

MUCH LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL THEN DESTABILIZE WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...AND RISING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY...AND CONSEQUENTLY SET THE
STAGE FOR THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THAT
WILL DEVELOP OVER WEST-CENTRAL NC - ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE
SURFACE TROUGH AND/OR SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL THEN
CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID LEVEL FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM THE WEST INTO
THE 40-60 KT RANGE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH. THE CHARACTER OF THE STRONG SHEAR...INDICATED BY
LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS FROM THE SFC-6 KM...WILL FAVOR SPLITTING
SUPERCELLS - ONES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL (SOME POSSIBLY
VERY LARGE) AND WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 60-70 KTS.

THE FRONTAL ZONE AND EMBEDDED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...AND ASSOCIATED
DEEP MOISTURE AND SHOWERS...WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EAST OVERNIGHT...
WITH JUST A LINGERING SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF I-95 BY
WED MORNING. DRY ELSEWHERE. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM MONDAY...

APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
CENTRAL NC TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY
BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WHERE REMNANT OUTFLOWS FROM TONIGHT`S
CONVECTION SHOULD RESIDE. ALSO...CONVECTION MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS BETTER SUPPORT
ALOFT CROSSES OUR REGION AT THAT TIME. BULK SHEAR COULD BE AS HIGH
AS 45-50KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR BROKEN BANDS OF STRONG STORMS WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS. THOSE CELLS WITH STRONG/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL.

CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
LINGERING/DIMINISHING SHOWERS FROM CONVECTION TONIGHT MAY PERSIST
OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL INITIALLY
INHIBIT THE ATMOSPHERE FROM DESTABILIZING UNTIL LATE N THE DAY.
SIMILAR TO CONCERNS FOR TODAY...SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS...LEADING TO LOCALLY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY...WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 1 THOUGH A DECENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL STILL EXIST IN
THE WEST. SIMILAR TO TONIGHT... EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST WELL
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
EVENTUALLY ENTERS THE AREA.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS/REMNANT
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH 9 AM...THEN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATE
THEREAFTER. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY MID 70S NW TO AROUND 80 EAST. MIN
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT MID-UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM MONDAY...

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CLOSED LOW PROGGED
TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS
PATTERN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE THE AIRMASS REBOUNDS AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO OUR
EAST ON FRIDAY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES...LOOK FOR THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD
FRONT (AS THE UPPER TROUGH IS DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY)...AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...RIGHT NOW FAIR WEATHER STILL APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP OUR
EYES ON A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...AS THESE FEATURES COULD
BRIEFLY INCREASE THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA...AND PERHAPS BRING A
FAST-MOVING AND BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO. TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER SC --AND PARENT MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE-- WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND INTERACT WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND TRAILING RAIN NOW SETTLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN...AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. THIS REGIME WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND OUT OF CENTRAL NC...WITH A RETURN TO DRY VFR
CONDITIONS...GENERALLY BETWEEN 12-16Z.

MUCH LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY...AND
CONSEQUENTLY SET THE STAGE FOR THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS THAT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LARGE HAIL...INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLY VERY LARGE...AND
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 60-70 KTS --IN SPLITTING SUPERCELLS-- WILL
POSE AN ADDED RISK BEYOND TYPICAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.
DESPITE THE LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE OF SUCH STORMS AND CONDITIONS
OVER NC...THE ASSOCIATED PROBABILITY OF SUCH OCCURRENCES AT ANY GIVEN
POINT/TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS...AT LEAST UNTIL
STORMS ULTIMATELY DEVELOP.

MULTIPLE SLOW-MOVING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
IN THE VICINITY OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS/STORMS THAT WILL GROW IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH HEATING EACH AFTERNOON - ESPECIALLY AT
EASTERN TAF SITES.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS62 KRAH 030150
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
950 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
THROUGH EARLY WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM MONDAY...

WEAK IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION...
IN ADVANCE OF A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US/MID
MS VALLEY. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MAKES IT WAY INTO THE NC
MTNS BY AROUND DAYBREAK. WITH A UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE
(PWATS 1.5-1.7" ~200% OF NORMAL)...40 TO 50MB H5 SYNOPTIC HEIGHT
FALLS...DPVA...AND INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN A RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO BETTER FORCING.

WITH MOST OF THE AREA HAVING ALREADY SEEN RAINFALL FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION/STORMS...AIRMASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER QUITE A BIT WITH
ONLY WEAK ~500 J/KG OF SBCAPE REMAINING. ADDITIONALLY...WEAK MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 5.5-6.0 C/KM PROVE OF LITTLE CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OVERNIGHT. INSTEAD...MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM LOCALLY
HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN URBANIZED AREAS...RESULTING IN STREET
FLOODING ALONG WITH CREEKS/STREAMS TEMPORARILY LEAVING THEIR BANKS.

WARM AND MUGGY WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM MONDAY...

APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
CENTRAL NC TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY
BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WHERE REMNANT OUTFLOWS FROM TONIGHT`S
CONVECTION SHOULD RESIDE. ALSO...CONVECTION MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS BETTER SUPPORT
ALOFT CROSSES OUR REGION AT THAT TIME. BULK SHEAR COULD BE AS HIGH
AS 45-50KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR BROKEN BANDS OF STRONG STORMS WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS. THOSE CELLS WITH STRONG/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL.

CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
LINGERING/DIMINISHING SHOWERS FROM CONVECTION TONIGHT MAY PERSIST
OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL INITIALLY
INHIBIT THE ATMOSPHERE FROM DESTABILIZING UNTIL LATE N THE DAY.
SIMILAR TO CONCERNS FOR TODAY...SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS...LEADING TO LOCALLY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY...WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 1 THOUGH A DECENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL STILL EXIST IN
THE WEST. SIMILAR TO TONIGHT... EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST WELL
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
EVENTUALLY ENTERS THE AREA.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS/REMNANT
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH 9 AM...THEN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATE
THEREAFTER. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY MID 70S NW TO AROUND 80 EAST. MIN
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT MID-UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM MONDAY...

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CLOSED LOW PROGGED
TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS
PATTERN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE THE AIRMASS REBOUNDS AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO OUR
EAST ON FRIDAY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES...LOOK FOR THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD
FRONT (AS THE UPPER TROUGH IS DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY)...AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...RIGHT NOW FAIR WEATHER STILL APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP OUR
EYES ON A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...AS THESE FEATURES COULD
BRIEFLY INCREASE THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA...AND PERHAPS BRING A
FAST-MOVING AND BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO. TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA CONTINUE
THIS EVENING WITH STORMS SUB-SEVERE AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER SHORT
TERM MODELS INDICATE SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE
TRIANGLE AREA AROUND 3Z. THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED STORMS AROUND
THE TRIAD AS WELL AS THERE IS A LINEAR FEATURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
BUT IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME IF THE LINE WILL GO TO THE NORTH OF
KGSO AND KINT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WIND GUSTS IN THE OBSERVED
STORMS HAVE BEEN IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO POSSIBLY DROP TO THE 4-6SM RANGE BUT CEILINGS WILL
BE THE BIGGER PROBLEM AS FAR AS FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS GO WITH MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS IN PLACE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z. GETTING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO DEVELOP AGAIN...THIS TIME MAINLY FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL HANG OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE
CAROLINAS...PROVIDING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 030004
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
804 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
THROUGH EARLY WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ALONG A STALLED MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. BULK EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WEAK AT LESS THAN 25KTS...SO STORM STRUCTURE CHARACTERIZED
AS MULTI-CELLULAR. THUS...STORMS CORES GOING UP/COMING DOWN
RELATIVELY QUICKLY...RESULTING IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF STORMS...A FEW UPDRAFTS MAY BE
ABLE TO SUSTAIN LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS 40-50KTS.

THIS EVENING...BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES TO 30-35KTS OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A MID LEVEL S/W AND ATTENDANT BAND OF CONVECTION
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST-NW AND CROSS THE NW PIEDMONT DURING THE
MID-LATE EVENING HOURS.

MAIN CONCERN STILL REMAINS FOCUSED OVER LOCALLY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AS PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND STEERING FLOW
RELATIVELY WEAK. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE MULTIPLE BANDS OF CONVECTION
CROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THUS...SPOTS THAT EXPERIENCE REPEATED BANDS OF CONVECTION COULD QUICKLY
RECEIVE AN INCH OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. IF THIS OCCURS IN
URBANIZED AREAS...COULD SEE STREET FLOODING ALONG WITH CREEKS/STREAMS
TEMPORARILY LEAVE THEIR BANKS.

WARM AND MUGGY WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM MONDAY...

APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
CENTRAL NC TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY
BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WHERE REMNANT OUTFLOWS FROM TONIGHT`S
CONVECTION SHOULD RESIDE. ALSO...CONVECTION MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS BETTER SUPPORT
ALOFT CROSSES OUR REGION AT THAT TIME. BULK SHEAR COULD BE AS HIGH
AS 45-50KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR BROKEN BANDS OF STRONG STORMS WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS. THOSE CELLS WITH STRONG/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL.

CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
LINGERING/DIMINISHING SHOWERS FROM CONVECTION TONIGHT MAY PERSIST
OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL INITIALLY
INHIBIT THE ATMOSPHERE FROM DESTABILIZING UNTIL LATE N THE DAY.
SIMILAR TO CONCERNS FOR TODAY...SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS...LEADING TO LOCALLY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY...WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 1 THOUGH A DECENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL STILL EXIST IN
THE WEST. SIMILAR TO TONIGHT... EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST WELL
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
EVENTUALLY ENTERS THE AREA.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS/REMNANT
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH 9 AM...THEN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATE
THEREAFTER. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY MID 70S NW TO AROUND 80 EAST. MIN
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT MID-UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM MONDAY...

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CLOSED LOW PROGGED
TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS
PATTERN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE THE AIRMASS REBOUNDS AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO OUR
EAST ON FRIDAY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES...LOOK FOR THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD
FRONT (AS THE UPPER TROUGH IS DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY)...AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...RIGHT NOW FAIR WEATHER STILL APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP OUR
EYES ON A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...AS THESE FEATURES COULD
BRIEFLY INCREASE THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA...AND PERHAPS BRING A
FAST-MOVING AND BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO. TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA CONTINUE
THIS EVENING WITH STORMS SUB-SEVERE AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER SHORT
TERM MODELS INDICATE SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE
TRIANGLE AREA AROUND 3Z. THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED STORMS AROUND
THE TRIAD AS WELL AS THERE IS A LINEAR FEATURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
BUT IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME IF THE LINE WILL GO TO THE NORTH OF
KGSO AND KINT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WIND GUSTS IN THE OBSERVED
STORMS HAVE BEEN IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO POSSIBLY DROP TO THE 4-6SM RANGE BUT CEILINGS WILL
BE THE BIGGER PROBLEM AS FAR AS FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS GO WITH MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS IN PLACE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z. GETTING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO DEVELOP AGAIN...THIS TIME MAINLY FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL HANG OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE
CAROLINAS...PROVIDING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 030004
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
804 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
THROUGH EARLY WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ALONG A STALLED MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. BULK EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WEAK AT LESS THAN 25KTS...SO STORM STRUCTURE CHARACTERIZED
AS MULTI-CELLULAR. THUS...STORMS CORES GOING UP/COMING DOWN
RELATIVELY QUICKLY...RESULTING IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF STORMS...A FEW UPDRAFTS MAY BE
ABLE TO SUSTAIN LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS 40-50KTS.

THIS EVENING...BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES TO 30-35KTS OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A MID LEVEL S/W AND ATTENDANT BAND OF CONVECTION
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST-NW AND CROSS THE NW PIEDMONT DURING THE
MID-LATE EVENING HOURS.

MAIN CONCERN STILL REMAINS FOCUSED OVER LOCALLY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AS PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND STEERING FLOW
RELATIVELY WEAK. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE MULTIPLE BANDS OF CONVECTION
CROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THUS...SPOTS THAT EXPERIENCE REPEATED BANDS OF CONVECTION COULD QUICKLY
RECEIVE AN INCH OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. IF THIS OCCURS IN
URBANIZED AREAS...COULD SEE STREET FLOODING ALONG WITH CREEKS/STREAMS
TEMPORARILY LEAVE THEIR BANKS.

WARM AND MUGGY WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM MONDAY...

APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
CENTRAL NC TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY
BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WHERE REMNANT OUTFLOWS FROM TONIGHT`S
CONVECTION SHOULD RESIDE. ALSO...CONVECTION MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS BETTER SUPPORT
ALOFT CROSSES OUR REGION AT THAT TIME. BULK SHEAR COULD BE AS HIGH
AS 45-50KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR BROKEN BANDS OF STRONG STORMS WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS. THOSE CELLS WITH STRONG/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL.

CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
LINGERING/DIMINISHING SHOWERS FROM CONVECTION TONIGHT MAY PERSIST
OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL INITIALLY
INHIBIT THE ATMOSPHERE FROM DESTABILIZING UNTIL LATE N THE DAY.
SIMILAR TO CONCERNS FOR TODAY...SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS...LEADING TO LOCALLY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY...WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 1 THOUGH A DECENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL STILL EXIST IN
THE WEST. SIMILAR TO TONIGHT... EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST WELL
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
EVENTUALLY ENTERS THE AREA.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS/REMNANT
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH 9 AM...THEN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATE
THEREAFTER. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY MID 70S NW TO AROUND 80 EAST. MIN
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT MID-UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM MONDAY...

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CLOSED LOW PROGGED
TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS
PATTERN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE THE AIRMASS REBOUNDS AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO OUR
EAST ON FRIDAY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES...LOOK FOR THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD
FRONT (AS THE UPPER TROUGH IS DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY)...AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...RIGHT NOW FAIR WEATHER STILL APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP OUR
EYES ON A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...AS THESE FEATURES COULD
BRIEFLY INCREASE THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA...AND PERHAPS BRING A
FAST-MOVING AND BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO. TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA CONTINUE
THIS EVENING WITH STORMS SUB-SEVERE AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER SHORT
TERM MODELS INDICATE SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE
TRIANGLE AREA AROUND 3Z. THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED STORMS AROUND
THE TRIAD AS WELL AS THERE IS A LINEAR FEATURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
BUT IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME IF THE LINE WILL GO TO THE NORTH OF
KGSO AND KINT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WIND GUSTS IN THE OBSERVED
STORMS HAVE BEEN IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO POSSIBLY DROP TO THE 4-6SM RANGE BUT CEILINGS WILL
BE THE BIGGER PROBLEM AS FAR AS FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS GO WITH MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS IN PLACE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z. GETTING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO DEVELOP AGAIN...THIS TIME MAINLY FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL HANG OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE
CAROLINAS...PROVIDING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 021947
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
345 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
THROUGH EARLY WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ALONG A STALLED MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. BULK EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WEAK AT LESS THAN 25KTS...SO STORM STRUCTURE CHARACTERIZED
AS MULTI-CELLULAR. THUS...STORMS CORES GOING UP/COMING DOWN
RELATIVELY QUICKLY...RESULTING IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF STORMS...A FEW UPDRAFTS MAY BE
ABLE TO SUSTAIN LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS 40-50KTS.

THIS EVENING...BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES TO 30-35KTS OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A MID LEVEL S/W AND ATTENDANT BAND OF CONVECTION
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST-NW AND CROSS THE NW PIEDMONT DURING THE
MID-LATE EVENING HOURS.

MAIN CONCERN STILL REMAINS FOCUSED OVER LOCALLY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AS PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND STEERING FLOW
RELATIVELY WEAK. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE MULTIPLE BANDS OF CONVECTION
CROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THUS...SPOTS THAT EXPERIENCE REPEATED BANDS OF CONVECTION COULD QUICKLY
RECEIVE AN INCH OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. IF THIS OCCURS IN
URBANIZED AREAS...COULD SEE STREET FLOODING ALONG WITH CREEKS/STREAMS
TEMPORARILY LEAVE THEIR BANKS.

WARM AND MUGGY WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM MONDAY...

APPEARS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
CENTRAL NC TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SEVERE STORMS. MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY
BE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WHERE REMNANT OUTFLOWS FROM TONIGHT`S
CONVECTION SHOULD RESIDE. ALSO...CONVECTION MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS BETTER SUPPORT
ALOFT CROSSES OUR REGION AT THAT TIME. BULK SHEAR COULD BE AS HIGH
AS 45-50KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR BROKEN BANDS OF STRONG STORMS WITH BOWING
SEGMENTS. THOSE CELLS WITH STRONG/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL.

CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
LINGERING/DIMINISHING SHOWERS FROM CONVECTION TONIGHT MAY PERSIST
OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL INITIALLY
INHIBIT THE ATMOSPHERE FROM DESTABILIZING UNTIL LATE N THE DAY.
SIMILAR TO CONCERNS FOR TODAY...SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS...LEADING TO LOCALLY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY...WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 1 THOUGH A DECENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL STILL EXIST IN
THE WEST. SIMILAR TO TONIGHT... EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST WELL
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
EVENTUALLY ENTERS THE AREA.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS/REMNANT
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH 9 AM...THEN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATE
THEREAFTER. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY MID 70S NW TO AROUND 80 EAST. MIN
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT MID-UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM MONDAY...

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CLOSED LOW PROGGED
TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS
PATTERN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE THE AIRMASS REBOUNDS AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO OUR
EAST ON FRIDAY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES...LOOK FOR THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD
FRONT (AS THE UPPER TROUGH IS DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY)...AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...RIGHT NOW FAIR WEATHER STILL APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP OUR
EYES ON A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...AS THESE FEATURES COULD
BRIEFLY INCREASE THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA...AND PERHAPS BRING A
FAST-MOVING AND BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO. TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS NOTED IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY FIRST THREATENING THE KFAY VICINITY...WITH
CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASING LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING
IN THE THE VICINITY OF KRDU AND THE TRIAD TERMINALS. IN PROXIMITY TO
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY...SOME
HAIL AND POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS 30-45KTS. WHILE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC AFTER 4Z...CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD WELL
INTO THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS AND
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AFTER 07Z...LINGERING THROUGH 13Z
TUESDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS PROBABLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE (20-35 PERCENT)
EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST BETWEEN 18Z-23Z EACH AFTERNOON. A DRIER MORE
STABLE AIR MASS WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 021931
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
THROUGH EARLY WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ALONG A STALLED MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. BULK EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WEAK AT LESS THAN 25KTS...SO STORM STRUCTURE CHARACTERIZED
AS MULTI-CELLULAR. THUS...STORMS CORES GOING UP/COMING DOWN
RELATIVELY QUICKLY...RESULTING IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF STORMS...A FEW UPDRAFTS MAY BE
ABLE TO SUSTAIN LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS 40-50KTS.

THIS EVENING...BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES TO 30-35KTS OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A MID LEVEL S/W AND ATTENDANT BAND OF CONVECTION
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST-NW AND CROSS THE NW PIEDMONT DURING THE
MID-LATE EVENING HOURS.

MAIN CONCERN STILL REMAINS FOCUSED OVER LOCALLY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AS PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND STEERING FLOW
RELATIVELY WEAK. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE MULTIPLE BANDS OF CONVECTION
CROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THUS...SPOTS THAT EXPERIENCE REPEATED BANDS OF CONVECTION COULD QUICKLY
RECEIVE AN INCH OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. IF THIS OCCURS IN
URBANIZED AREAS...COULD SEE STREET FLOODING ALONG WITH CREEKS/STREAMS
TEMPORARILY LEAVE THEIR BANKS.

WARM AND MUGGY WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...

A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY AND
THEN SWING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT.... FINALLY GIVING
THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM EAST TX TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES A KICK TO THE EAST.  THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS NC
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF/NAM IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND NAM FAVOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE
EVENING.  DEEP SHEAR IS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 40-50KT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR AS THE UPPER JET SHIFTS EAST.  CAPE IS LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN GIVEN 1) THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING PRECIP OVER WESTERN NC
EARLY TUESDAY TO INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND 2) WESTERLY FLOW AND DEEPER MIXING TO LOWER DEWPOINTS (AGAIN
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT).  GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST100-
1500JKG MLCAPE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.  THUS...THE COASTAL PLAIN IS
FAVORED FOR STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 70S.

THE SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOW IN THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WHILE IT
APPROACHES THE COAST.  LOWS 54-59.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM MONDAY...

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CLOSED LOW PROGGED
TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS
PATTERN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE THE AIRMASS REBOUNDS AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO OUR
EAST ON FRIDAY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES...LOOK FOR THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD
FRONT (AS THE UPPER TROUGH IS DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY)...AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...RIGHT NOW FAIR WEATHER STILL APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP OUR
EYES ON A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...AS THESE FEATURES COULD
BRIEFLY INCREASE THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA...AND PERHAPS BRING A
FAST-MOVING AND BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO. TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS NOTED IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY FIRST THREATENING THE KFAY VICINITY...WITH
CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASING LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING
IN THE THE VICINITY OF KRDU AND THE TRIAD TERMINALS. IN PROXIMITY TO
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY...SOME
HAIL AND POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS 30-45KTS. WHILE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC AFTER 4Z...CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD WELL
INTO THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS AND
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AFTER 07Z...LINGERING THROUGH 13Z
TUESDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS PROBABLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE (20-35 PERCENT)
EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST BETWEEN 18Z-23Z EACH AFTERNOON. A DRIER MORE
STABLE AIR MASS WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 021931
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
THROUGH EARLY WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ALONG A STALLED MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. BULK EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WEAK AT LESS THAN 25KTS...SO STORM STRUCTURE CHARACTERIZED
AS MULTI-CELLULAR. THUS...STORMS CORES GOING UP/COMING DOWN
RELATIVELY QUICKLY...RESULTING IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. AS ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF STORMS...A FEW UPDRAFTS MAY BE
ABLE TO SUSTAIN LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS 40-50KTS.

THIS EVENING...BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES TO 30-35KTS OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A MID LEVEL S/W AND ATTENDANT BAND OF CONVECTION
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST-NW AND CROSS THE NW PIEDMONT DURING THE
MID-LATE EVENING HOURS.

MAIN CONCERN STILL REMAINS FOCUSED OVER LOCALLY HEAVY/EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AS PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND STEERING FLOW
RELATIVELY WEAK. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE MULTIPLE BANDS OF CONVECTION
CROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THUS...SPOTS THAT EXPERIENCE REPEATED BANDS OF CONVECTION COULD QUICKLY
RECEIVE AN INCH OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. IF THIS OCCURS IN
URBANIZED AREAS...COULD SEE STREET FLOODING ALONG WITH CREEKS/STREAMS
TEMPORARILY LEAVE THEIR BANKS.

WARM AND MUGGY WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...

A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY AND
THEN SWING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT.... FINALLY GIVING
THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM EAST TX TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES A KICK TO THE EAST.  THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS NC
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF/NAM IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND NAM FAVOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE
EVENING.  DEEP SHEAR IS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 40-50KT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR AS THE UPPER JET SHIFTS EAST.  CAPE IS LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN GIVEN 1) THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING PRECIP OVER WESTERN NC
EARLY TUESDAY TO INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND 2) WESTERLY FLOW AND DEEPER MIXING TO LOWER DEWPOINTS (AGAIN
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT).  GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST100-
1500JKG MLCAPE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.  THUS...THE COASTAL PLAIN IS
FAVORED FOR STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 70S.

THE SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOW IN THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WHILE IT
APPROACHES THE COAST.  LOWS 54-59.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM MONDAY...

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CLOSED LOW PROGGED
TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS
PATTERN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE THE AIRMASS REBOUNDS AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO OUR
EAST ON FRIDAY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES...LOOK FOR THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD
FRONT (AS THE UPPER TROUGH IS DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY)...AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...RIGHT NOW FAIR WEATHER STILL APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP OUR
EYES ON A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...AS THESE FEATURES COULD
BRIEFLY INCREASE THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA...AND PERHAPS BRING A
FAST-MOVING AND BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO. TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS NOTED IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY FIRST THREATENING THE KFAY VICINITY...WITH
CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASING LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING
IN THE THE VICINITY OF KRDU AND THE TRIAD TERMINALS. IN PROXIMITY TO
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY...SOME
HAIL AND POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS 30-45KTS. WHILE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC AFTER 4Z...CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD WELL
INTO THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS AND
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AFTER 07Z...LINGERING THROUGH 13Z
TUESDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS PROBABLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE (20-35 PERCENT)
EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST BETWEEN 18Z-23Z EACH AFTERNOON. A DRIER MORE
STABLE AIR MASS WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 021818
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
220 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
THROUGH EARLY WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM MONDAY...

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM FAR NE NC
SWWD TOWARD THE CLT METRO AREA. PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1.4-1.6 INCH RANGE. ONE THING WE HAVE TODAY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THAT WE WERE MISSING SUNDAY IS SOLAR HEATING.
WHILE SUNDAY SAW WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BULK OF LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY
LIFTED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC AS OF 14Z. THUS...MOST PLACES WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE 80 DEGREES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
HEATING COUPLED WITH THE MOIST AIR MASS AND PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS SHOULD CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT-
SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT.

PROJECTED CONVECTION PARAMETERS SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY SEVERE
STORMS THOUGH PROJECTED BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE RATHER LOW. THUS ONLY
EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. THE BETTER SUPPORT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE NW PIEDMONT LATE IN THE DAY INTO THIS
EVENING AS STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW AND SLIGHTLY BETTER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEAR ON TARGET TO REACH THE LOW-MID
80S. -WSS

TONIGHT: A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS STRETCHING
FROM OK TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CAUSE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO
FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/OH VALLEY/NORTHERN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. FORCING FOR ASCENT --IN THE
ASSOCIATED DIVERGENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET-- WILL
SPREAD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...THEN PIVOT EAST
ACROSS VA/NC TONIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A CONTINUED
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND SUPPORT
THE MAINTENANCE AND POSSIBLE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LARGER CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD LIKELY OCCUR
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING...WHEN INSTABILITY WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED AND OVERLAP IN SPACE AND TIME WITH
STRENGTHENING UVV/S AND MID LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. DAMAGING WIND WILL POSE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...THOUGH SOME SEVERE HAIL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
STORMS THAT REMAIN RELATIVELY DISCRETE. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS...WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.75". HUMID OTHERWISE...WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...

A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY AND
THEN SWING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT.... FINALLY GIVING
THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM EAST TX TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES A KICK TO THE EAST.  THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS NC
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF/NAM IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND NAM FAVOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE
EVENING.  DEEP SHEAR IS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 40-50KT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR AS THE UPPER JET SHIFTS EAST.  CAPE IS LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN GIVEN 1) THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING PRECIP OVER WESTERN NC
EARLY TUESDAY TO INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND 2) WESTERLY FLOW AND DEEPER MIXING TO LOWER DEWPOINTS (AGAIN
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT).  GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST100-
1500JKG MLCAPE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.  THUS...THE COASTAL PLAIN IS
FAVORED FOR STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 70S.

THE SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOW IN THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WHILE IT
APPROACHES THE COAST.  LOWS 54-59.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM MONDAY...

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CLOSED LOW PROGGED
TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS
PATTERN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE THE AIRMASS REBOUNDS AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO OUR
EAST ON FRIDAY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES...LOOK FOR THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD
FRONT (AS THE UPPER TROUGH IS DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY)...AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...RIGHT NOW FAIR WEATHER STILL APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP OUR
EYES ON A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...AS THESE FEATURES COULD
BRIEFLY INCREASE THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA...AND PERHAPS BRING A
FAST-MOVING AND BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO. TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS NOTED IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY FIRST THREATENING THE KFAY VICINITY...WITH
CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASING LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING
IN THE THE VICINITY OF KRDU AND THE TRIAD TERMINALS. IN PROXIMITY TO
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY...SOME
HAIL AND POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS 30-45KTS. WHILE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC AFTER 4Z...CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD WELL
INTO THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS AND
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AFTER 07Z...LINGERING THROUGH 13Z
TUESDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS PROBABLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE (20-35 PERCENT)
EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST BETWEEN 18Z-23Z EACH AFTERNOON. A DRIER MORE
STABLE AIR MASS WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/26
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 021818
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
220 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
THROUGH EARLY WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM MONDAY...

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM FAR NE NC
SWWD TOWARD THE CLT METRO AREA. PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1.4-1.6 INCH RANGE. ONE THING WE HAVE TODAY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THAT WE WERE MISSING SUNDAY IS SOLAR HEATING.
WHILE SUNDAY SAW WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BULK OF LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY
LIFTED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC AS OF 14Z. THUS...MOST PLACES WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE 80 DEGREES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
HEATING COUPLED WITH THE MOIST AIR MASS AND PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS SHOULD CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT-
SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT.

PROJECTED CONVECTION PARAMETERS SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY SEVERE
STORMS THOUGH PROJECTED BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE RATHER LOW. THUS ONLY
EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. THE BETTER SUPPORT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE NW PIEDMONT LATE IN THE DAY INTO THIS
EVENING AS STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW AND SLIGHTLY BETTER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEAR ON TARGET TO REACH THE LOW-MID
80S. -WSS

TONIGHT: A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS STRETCHING
FROM OK TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CAUSE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO
FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/OH VALLEY/NORTHERN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. FORCING FOR ASCENT --IN THE
ASSOCIATED DIVERGENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET-- WILL
SPREAD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...THEN PIVOT EAST
ACROSS VA/NC TONIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A CONTINUED
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND SUPPORT
THE MAINTENANCE AND POSSIBLE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LARGER CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD LIKELY OCCUR
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING...WHEN INSTABILITY WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED AND OVERLAP IN SPACE AND TIME WITH
STRENGTHENING UVV/S AND MID LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. DAMAGING WIND WILL POSE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...THOUGH SOME SEVERE HAIL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
STORMS THAT REMAIN RELATIVELY DISCRETE. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS...WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.75". HUMID OTHERWISE...WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...

A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY AND
THEN SWING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT.... FINALLY GIVING
THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM EAST TX TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES A KICK TO THE EAST.  THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS NC
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF/NAM IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND NAM FAVOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE
EVENING.  DEEP SHEAR IS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 40-50KT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR AS THE UPPER JET SHIFTS EAST.  CAPE IS LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN GIVEN 1) THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING PRECIP OVER WESTERN NC
EARLY TUESDAY TO INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND 2) WESTERLY FLOW AND DEEPER MIXING TO LOWER DEWPOINTS (AGAIN
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT).  GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST100-
1500JKG MLCAPE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.  THUS...THE COASTAL PLAIN IS
FAVORED FOR STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 70S.

THE SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOW IN THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WHILE IT
APPROACHES THE COAST.  LOWS 54-59.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM MONDAY...

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A CLOSED LOW PROGGED
TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS
PATTERN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE THE AIRMASS REBOUNDS AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS TO OUR
EAST ON FRIDAY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES...LOOK FOR THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD
FRONT (AS THE UPPER TROUGH IS DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY)...AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA.

FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...RIGHT NOW FAIR WEATHER STILL APPEARS
TO BE ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP OUR
EYES ON A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...AS THESE FEATURES COULD
BRIEFLY INCREASE THE CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA...AND PERHAPS BRING A
FAST-MOVING AND BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO. TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS NOTED IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY FIRST THREATENING THE KFAY VICINITY...WITH
CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASING LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING
IN THE THE VICINITY OF KRDU AND THE TRIAD TERMINALS. IN PROXIMITY TO
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY...SOME
HAIL AND POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS 30-45KTS. WHILE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC AFTER 4Z...CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD WELL
INTO THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS AND
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AFTER 07Z...LINGERING THROUGH 13Z
TUESDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS PROBABLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE (20-35 PERCENT)
EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST BETWEEN 18Z-23Z EACH AFTERNOON. A DRIER MORE
STABLE AIR MASS WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/26
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 021720
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
120 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
THROUGH EARLY WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM MONDAY...

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM FAR NE NC
SWWD TOWARD THE CLT METRO AREA. PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1.4-1.6 INCH RANGE. ONE THING WE HAVE TODAY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THAT WE WERE MISSING SUNDAY IS SOLAR HEATING.
WHILE SUNDAY SAW WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BULK OF LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY
LIFTED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC AS OF 14Z. THUS...MOST PLACES WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE 80 DEGREES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
HEATING COUPLED WITH THE MOIST AIR MASS AND PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS SHOULD CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT-
SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT.

PROJECTED CONVECTION PARAMETERS SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY SEVERE
STORMS THOUGH PROJECTED BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE RATHER LOW. THUS ONLY
EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. THE BETTER SUPPORT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE NW PIEDMONT LATE IN THE DAY INTO THIS
EVENING AS STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW AND SLIGHTLY BETTER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEAR ON TARGET TO REACH THE LOW-MID
80S. -WSS

TONIGHT: A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS STRETCHING
FROM OK TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CAUSE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO
FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/OH VALLEY/NORTHERN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. FORCING FOR ASCENT --IN THE
ASSOCIATED DIVERGENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET-- WILL
SPREAD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...THEN PIVOT EAST
ACROSS VA/NC TONIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A CONTINUED
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND SUPPORT
THE MAINTENANCE AND POSSIBLE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LARGER CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD LIKELY OCCUR
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING...WHEN INSTABILITY WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED AND OVERLAP IN SPACE AND TIME WITH
STRENGTHENING UVV/S AND MID LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. DAMAGING WIND WILL POSE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...THOUGH SOME SEVERE HAIL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
STORMS THAT REMAIN RELATIVELY DISCRETE. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS...WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.75". HUMID OTHERWISE...WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...

A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY AND
THEN SWING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT.... FINALLY GIVING
THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM EAST TX TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES A KICK TO THE EAST.  THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS NC
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF/NAM IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND NAM FAVOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE
EVENING.  DEEP SHEAR IS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 40-50KT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR AS THE UPPER JET SHIFTS EAST.  CAPE IS LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN GIVEN 1) THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING PRECIP OVER WESTERN NC
EARLY TUESDAY TO INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND 2) WESTERLY FLOW AND DEEPER MIXING TO LOWER DEWPOINTS (AGAIN
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT).  GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST100-
1500JKG MLCAPE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.  THUS...THE COASTAL PLAIN IS
FAVORED FOR STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 70S.

THE SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOW IN THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WHILE IT
APPROACHES THE COAST.  LOWS 54-59.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...

AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK...WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER
LOW DROPPING SLOWLY OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AND CAROLINAS.  MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES HAVE ADVERTISED THIS UPPER
LOW AS 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL.  H10-H85 THICKNESSES DROPPING TO AROUND
1340M BY FRIDAY MORNING SUPPORT THE IDEA OF HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE COOLEST MEX GUIDANCE INDICATING MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S THURS/FRI.  MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WITH THE UPPER LOW AND
PERIODIC DCVA COMBINED WITH A POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED STORMS (MAINLY AFTERNOON) THROUGH
FRIDAY.  THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO FILL AND MOVE EAST BY
SATURDAY...WITH RIDGING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS NC.  TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TO AND ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM MONDAY...

GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS NOTED IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY FIRST THREATENING THE KFAY VICINITY...WITH
CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASING LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING
IN THE THE VICINITY OF KRDU AND THE TRIAD TERMINALS. IN PROXIMITY TO
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS...EXPECT MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY...SOME
HAIL AND POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS 30-45KTS. WHILE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC AFTER 4Z...CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD WELL
INTO THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS AND
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AFTER 07Z...LINGERING THROUGH 13Z
TUESDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS PROBABLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE (20-35 PERCENT)
EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST BETWEEN 18Z-23Z EACH AFTERNOON. A DRIER MORE
STABLE AIR MASS WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/26
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 021458
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1100 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
THROUGH EARLY WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM MONDAY...

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM FAR NE NC
SWWD TOWARD THE CLT METRO AREA. PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 1.4-1.6 INCH RANGE. ONE THING WE HAVE TODAY FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THAT WE WERE MISSING SUNDAY IS SOLAR HEATING.
WHILE SUNDAY SAW WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BULK OF LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY
LIFTED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC AS OF 14Z. THUS...MOST PLACES WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE 80 DEGREES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
HEATING COUPLED WITH THE MOIST AIR MASS AND PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS SHOULD CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT-
SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT.

PROJECTED CONVECTION PARAMETERS SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY SEVERE
STORMS THOUGH PROJECTED BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE RATHER LOW. THUS ONLY
EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. THE BETTER SUPPORT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE NW PIEDMONT LATE IN THE DAY INTO THIS
EVENING AS STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW AND SLIGHTLY BETTER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEAR ON TARGET TO REACH THE LOW-MID
80S. -WSS

TONIGHT: A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS STRETCHING
FROM OK TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CAUSE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO
FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/OH VALLEY/NORTHERN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. FORCING FOR ASCENT --IN THE
ASSOCIATED DIVERGENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET-- WILL
SPREAD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...THEN PIVOT EAST
ACROSS VA/NC TONIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A CONTINUED
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND SUPPORT
THE MAINTENANCE AND POSSIBLE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LARGER CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD LIKELY OCCUR
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING...WHEN INSTABILITY WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED AND OVERLAP IN SPACE AND TIME WITH
STRENGTHENING UVV/S AND MID LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. DAMAGING WIND WILL POSE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...THOUGH SOME SEVERE HAIL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
STORMS THAT REMAIN RELATIVELY DISCRETE. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS...WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.75". HUMID OTHERWISE...WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...

A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY AND
THEN SWING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT.... FINALLY GIVING
THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM EAST TX TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES A KICK TO THE EAST.  THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS NC
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF/NAM IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND NAM FAVOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE
EVENING.  DEEP SHEAR IS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 40-50KT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR AS THE UPPER JET SHIFTS EAST.  CAPE IS LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN GIVEN 1) THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING PRECIP OVER WESTERN NC
EARLY TUESDAY TO INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND 2) WESTERLY FLOW AND DEEPER MIXING TO LOWER DEWPOINTS (AGAIN
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT).  GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST100-
1500JKG MLCAPE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.  THUS...THE COASTAL PLAIN IS
FAVORED FOR STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 70S.

THE SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOW IN THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WHILE IT
APPROACHES THE COAST.  LOWS 54-59.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...

AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK...WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER
LOW DROPPING SLOWLY OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AND CAROLINAS.  MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES HAVE ADVERTISED THIS UPPER
LOW AS 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL.  H10-H85 THICKNESSES DROPPING TO AROUND
1340M BY FRIDAY MORNING SUPPORT THE IDEA OF HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE COOLEST MEX GUIDANCE INDICATING MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S THURS/FRI.  MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WITH THE UPPER LOW AND
PERIODIC DCVA COMBINED WITH A POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED STORMS (MAINLY AFTERNOON) THROUGH
FRIDAY.  THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO FILL AND MOVE EAST BY
SATURDAY...WITH RIDGING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS NC.  TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TO AND ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM MONDAY...

AREAS OF STRATUS...IN MOIST/HUMID SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW BELOW A
TEMPERATURE INVERSION AROUND 1500 FT...WITH COVERAGE MORE VARIABLE
THAN IN RECENT DAYS...WILL LIFT THROUGH MVFR RANGE AND SCATTER AS
THE INVERSION BREAKS BETWEEN 13-16Z. SUBSEQUENT DIURNAL HEATING OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED HUMID AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
AND SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AN
APPALACHIAN LEE SURFACE TROUGH...AND REMNANT OUTFLOW AND/OR
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION AND CLOUDS...THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE RELATIVE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING AT TRIAD TAF SITES...OWING TO ADDED SUPPORT ALOFT BY THE
NEARBY PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
MAY LINGER IN SOME AREAS IN A CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND
WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF LOW STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN A CONTINUED HUMID AIR MASS
LATE TONIGHT-EARLY TUE.

OUTLOOK: ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST
UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVES
OFFSHORE LATE TUE THROUGH EARLY WED. A POLAR VORTEX WILL MEANWHILE
MIGRATE FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH RESULTANT ENHANCED AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS/STORMS...AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS BENEATH VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ATTENDING THE VORTEX.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/26
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS62 KRAH 021140
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
740 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
THROUGH EARLY WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM MONDAY...

LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH AN
APPALACHIAN LEE TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
WEST-CENTRAL CAROLINAS TODAY. A PRECEDING EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL VA (MODULATED BY EARLIER STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
OVER THE VIRGINIAS) WILL RETREAT QUICKLY NORTH ACROSS VA OWING TO
THE WARMTH JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER...WHICH WILL BE REALIZED
QUICKLY AS LOW CLOUDS ERODE AND DIABATIC HEATING/ MIXING OCCURS.

ASIDE FROM THE LEE TROUGH...A COUPLE OF OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND
SANDHILLS MAY SERVE AS FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY...THE
LATTER OF WHICH MAY SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE AND/OR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THERE THROUGH MIDDAY...AS AN UPSTREAM MCV OVER GA
APPROACHES FROM THE SW. SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY
INITIALLY OTHERWISE INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...THE EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
WARM THROUGH THE 70S...TO PROBABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...WILL YIELD A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON.
LIKE SUNDAY...HOWEVER...THE MAIN BELT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM MID-
UPPER FLOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
OF CENTRAL NC TODAY...SO ONLY LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AND/OR MCV/S FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
ENCOURAGE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY
SCATTERED...MULTI-CELLULAR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

TONIGHT: A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS STRETCHING
FROM OK TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CAUSE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO
FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/OH VALLEY/NORTHERN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. FORCING FOR ASCENT --IN THE
ASSOCIATED DIVERGENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET-- WILL
SPREAD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...THEN PIVOT EAST
ACROSS VA/NC TONIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A CONTINUED
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND SUPPORT
THE MAINTENANCE AND POSSIBLE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LARGER CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD LIKELY OCCUR
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING...WHEN INSTABILITY WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED AND OVERLAP IN SPACE AND TIME WITH
STRENGTHENING UVV/S AND MID LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. DAMAGING WIND WILL POSE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...THOUGH SOME SEVERE HAIL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
STORMS THAT REMAIN RELATIVELY DISCRETE. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS...WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.75". HUMID OTHERWISE...WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...

A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY AND
THEN SWING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT.... FINALLY GIVING
THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM EAST TX TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES A KICK TO THE EAST.  THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS NC
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF/NAM IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND NAM FAVOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE
EVENING.  DEEP SHEAR IS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 40-50KT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR AS THE UPPER JET SHIFTS EAST.  CAPE IS LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN GIVEN 1) THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING PRECIP OVER WESTERN NC
EARLY TUESDAY TO INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND 2) WESTERLY FLOW AND DEEPER MIXING TO LOWER DEWPOINTS (AGAIN
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT).  GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST100-
1500JKG MLCAPE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.  THUS...THE COASTAL PLAIN IS
FAVORED FOR STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 70S.

THE SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOW IN THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WHILE IT
APPROACHES THE COAST.  LOWS 54-59.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...

AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK...WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER
LOW DROPPING SLOWLY OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AND CAROLINAS.  MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES HAVE ADVERTISED THIS UPPER
LOW AS 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL.  H10-H85 THICKNESSES DROPPING TO AROUND
1340M BY FRIDAY MORNING SUPPORT THE IDEA OF HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE COOLEST MEX GUIDANCE INDICATING MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S THURS/FRI.  MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WITH THE UPPER LOW AND
PERIODIC DCVA COMBINED WITH A POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED STORMS (MAINLY AFTERNOON) THROUGH
FRIDAY.  THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO FILL AND MOVE EAST BY
SATURDAY...WITH RIDGING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS NC.  TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TO AND ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM MONDAY...

AREAS OF STRATUS...IN MOIST/HUMID SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW BELOW A
TEMPERATURE INVERSION AROUND 1500 FT...WITH COVERAGE MORE VARIABLE
THAN IN RECENT DAYS...WILL LIFT THROUGH MVFR RANGE AND SCATTER AS
THE INVERSION BREAKS BETWEEN 13-16Z. SUBSEQUENT DIURNAL HEATING OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED HUMID AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
AND SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AN
APPALACHIAN LEE SURFACE TROUGH...AND REMNANT OUTFLOW AND/OR
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION AND CLOUDS...THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE RELATIVE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING AT TRIAD TAF SITES...OWING TO ADDED SUPPORT ALOFT BY THE
NEARBY PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
MAY LINGER IN SOME AREAS IN A CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND
WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF LOW STRATUS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN A CONTINUED HUMID AIR MASS
LATE TONIGHT-EARLY TUE.

OUTLOOK: ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST
UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVES
OFFSHORE LATE TUE THROUGH EARLY WED. A POLAR VORTEX WILL MEANWHILE
MIGRATE FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH RESULTANT ENHANCED AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS/STORMS...AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS BENEATH VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ATTENDING THE VORTEX.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS62 KRAH 020832
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
432 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
THROUGH EARLY WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM MONDAY...

LOW PRESSURE NOW OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH AN
APPALACHIAN LEE TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
WEST-CENTRAL CAROLINAS TODAY. A PRECEDING EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL VA (MODULATED BY EARLIER STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
OVER THE VIRGINIAS) WILL RETREAT QUICKLY NORTH ACROSS VA OWING TO
THE WARMTH JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER...WHICH WILL BE REALIZED
QUICKLY AS LOW CLOUDS ERODE AND DIABATIC HEATING/ MIXING OCCURS.

ASIDE FROM THE LEE TROUGH...A COUPLE OF OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND
SANDHILLS MAY SERVE AS FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY...THE
LATTER OF WHICH MAY SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE AND/OR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THERE THROUGH MIDDAY...AS AN UPSTREAM MCV OVER GA
APPROACHES FROM THE SW. SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY
INITIALLY OTHERWISE INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...THE EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
WARM THROUGH THE 70S...TO PROBABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...WILL YIELD A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON.
LIKE SUNDAY...HOWEVER...THE MAIN BELT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM MID-
UPPER FLOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
OF CENTRAL NC TODAY...SO ONLY LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AND/OR MCV/S FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
ENCOURAGE FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY
SCATTERED...MULTI-CELLULAR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

TONIGHT: A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS STRETCHING
FROM OK TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL CAUSE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO
FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/OH VALLEY/NORTHERN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING. FORCING FOR ASCENT --IN THE
ASSOCIATED DIVERGENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET-- WILL
SPREAD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...THEN PIVOT EAST
ACROSS VA/NC TONIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A CONTINUED
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND SUPPORT
THE MAINTENANCE AND POSSIBLE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LARGER CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT.

THE ASSOCIATED GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD LIKELY OCCUR
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING...WHEN INSTABILITY WILL
STILL BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED AND OVERLAP IN SPACE AND TIME WITH
STRENGTHENING UVV/S AND MID LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. DAMAGING WIND WILL POSE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...THOUGH SOME SEVERE HAIL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
STORMS THAT REMAIN RELATIVELY DISCRETE. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS...WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.75". HUMID OTHERWISE...WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...

A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY AND
THEN SWING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT.... FINALLY GIVING
THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM EAST TX TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES A KICK TO THE EAST.  THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS NC
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF/NAM IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND NAM FAVOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE
EVENING.  DEEP SHEAR IS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 40-50KT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR AS THE UPPER JET SHIFTS EAST.  CAPE IS LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN GIVEN 1) THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING PRECIP OVER WESTERN NC
EARLY TUESDAY TO INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND 2) WESTERLY FLOW AND DEEPER MIXING TO LOWER DEWPOINTS (AGAIN
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT).  GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST100-
1500JKG MLCAPE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.  THUS...THE COASTAL PLAIN IS
FAVORED FOR STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 70S.

THE SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOW IN THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WHILE IT
APPROACHES THE COAST.  LOWS 54-59.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...

AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK...WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER
LOW DROPPING SLOWLY OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AND CAROLINAS.  MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES HAVE ADVERTISED THIS UPPER
LOW AS 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL.  H10-H85 THICKNESSES DROPPING TO AROUND
1340M BY FRIDAY MORNING SUPPORT THE IDEA OF HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE COOLEST MEX GUIDANCE INDICATING MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S THURS/FRI.  MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WITH THE UPPER LOW AND
PERIODIC DCVA COMBINED WITH A POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED STORMS (MAINLY AFTERNOON) THROUGH
FRIDAY.  THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO FILL AND MOVE EAST BY
SATURDAY...WITH RIDGING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS NC.  TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TO AND ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...

AREAS OF STRATUS...IN MOIST/HUMID SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW BELOW A
TEMPERATURE INVERSION AROUND 1500 FT...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THIS MORNING...THOUGH COVERAGE AND CEILING HEIGHTS ARE BOTH
LIKELY TO BE MORE VARIABLE THAN IN RECENT DAYS. IN ADDITION...A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST IN A DEEPLY MOIST AND
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS MORNING...WITH THE RELATIVE
MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE AT KFAY.

OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT THROUGH MVFR RANGE AND SCATTER
BETWEEN 13-16Z. SUBSEQUENT DIURNAL HEATING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
HUMID AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND SUPPORT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AN APPALACHIAN LEE
SURFACE TROUGH AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION - BEST CONVEYED WITH A PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME RANGE.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN LINGER OVERNIGHT...AS
LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN WSW FLOW ALOFT INTERACT WITH A
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

OUTLOOK: LATE NIGHT-MORNING LOW STRATUS...AND ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WILL PERSIST UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUE THROUGH EARLY
WED. A POLAR VORTEX WILL MEANWHILE MIGRATE FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
RESULTANT ENHANCED AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/STORMS...AS
DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS BENEATH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ATTENDING THE VORTEX.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS62 KRAH 020804
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
400 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
THROUGH EARLY WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM SUNDAY...

ONE LONE MODEST CELL PASSED OVER THE TRIAD RECENTLY... BUT OTHERWISE
THE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE SRN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE APPROACHED BUT FAILED TO
SURVIVE THE TRIP INTO THE FORECAST AREA DESPITE THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN PLACE (PW OF 150-175% OF NORMAL). WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING (FOSTERING THE GROWTH IN CINH OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS) AND
IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY NOTABLE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT (WITH
FAIRLY FLAT WSW MID LEVEL FLOW AND NO DISTINCT LOW LEVEL JETTING)...
EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN CENTRAL NC FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER... WE SHOULD BE SEEING A SLIGHT
RISE IN PW OVERNIGHT ACCORDING TO THE RAP IN CONJUNCTION WITH
PASSAGE OF A WAVE TO OUR NORTH ACROSS WV/VA/MD (PARTIALLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS EVENING`S SEVERE WEATHER OVER WV/WRN VA)... AND
THIS MAY BRUSH OVER THE FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE CWA. IN ADDITION...
POOLING OF HIGHER PW OVER THE SE CWA AS IS PROJECTED BY SEVERAL
MODELS MAY RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS THERE TOWARD MORNING. THE LATEST RAP RUN SUPPORTS THIS WITH A
MOISTENING COLUMN LATE TONIGHT AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF LINGERING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL RETAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR N/NE
AND OVER THE SE LATER TONIGHT. BASED ON THE WEAK MBE MOVEMENT NOTED
BY THE RAP AND DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL-0C NEARING 4 KM)... LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH SLOW-MOVING AND/OR TRAINING CELLS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING IN THE SE CWA. MILD LOWS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...

A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY AND
THEN SWING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT.... FINALLY GIVING
THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM EAST TX TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES A KICK TO THE EAST.  THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS NC
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...THOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF/NAM IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND NAM FAVOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER IN THE
EVENING.  DEEP SHEAR IS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 40-50KT OF UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR AS THE UPPER JET SHIFTS EAST.  CAPE IS LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN GIVEN 1) THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING PRECIP OVER WESTERN NC
EARLY TUESDAY TO INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND 2) WESTERLY FLOW AND DEEPER MIXING TO LOWER DEWPOINTS (AGAIN
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT).  GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST100-
1500JKG MLCAPE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.  THUS...THE COASTAL PLAIN IS
FAVORED FOR STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 70S.

THE SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOW IN THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WHILE IT
APPROACHES THE COAST.  LOWS 54-59.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...

AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK...WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER
LOW DROPPING SLOWLY OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AND CAROLINAS.  MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES HAVE ADVERTISED THIS UPPER
LOW AS 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL.  H10-H85 THICKNESSES DROPPING TO AROUND
1340M BY FRIDAY MORNING SUPPORT THE IDEA OF HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE COOLEST MEX GUIDANCE INDICATING MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S THURS/FRI.  MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WITH THE UPPER LOW AND
PERIODIC DCVA COMBINED WITH A POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW ISOLATED STORMS (MAINLY AFTERNOON) THROUGH
FRIDAY.  THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO FILL AND MOVE EAST BY
SATURDAY...WITH RIDGING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS NC.  TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK TO AND ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...

AREAS OF STRATUS...IN MOIST/HUMID SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW BELOW A
TEMPERATURE INVERSION AROUND 1500 FT...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THIS MORNING...THOUGH COVERAGE AND CEILING HEIGHTS ARE BOTH
LIKELY TO BE MORE VARIABLE THAN IN RECENT DAYS. IN ADDITION...A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST IN A DEEPLY MOIST AND
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS MORNING...WITH THE RELATIVE
MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE AT KFAY.

OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT THROUGH MVFR RANGE AND SCATTER
BETWEEN 13-16Z. SUBSEQUENT DIURNAL HEATING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
HUMID AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND SUPPORT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AN APPALACHIAN LEE
SURFACE TROUGH AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION - BEST CONVEYED WITH A PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME RANGE.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN LINGER OVERNIGHT...AS
LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANES IN WSW FLOW ALOFT INTERACT WITH A
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

OUTLOOK: LATE NIGHT-MORNING LOW STRATUS...AND ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WILL PERSIST UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUE THROUGH EARLY
WED. A POLAR VORTEX WILL MEANWHILE MIGRATE FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
RESULTANT ENHANCED AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/STORMS...AS
DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS BENEATH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ATTENDING THE VORTEX.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS62 KRAH 020718
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
318 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
THROUGH EARLY WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM SUNDAY...

ONE LONE MODEST CELL PASSED OVER THE TRIAD RECENTLY... BUT OTHERWISE
THE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE SRN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE APPROACHED BUT FAILED TO
SURVIVE THE TRIP INTO THE FORECAST AREA DESPITE THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN PLACE (PW OF 150-175% OF NORMAL). WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING (FOSTERING THE GROWTH IN CINH OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS) AND
IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY NOTABLE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT (WITH
FAIRLY FLAT WSW MID LEVEL FLOW AND NO DISTINCT LOW LEVEL JETTING)...
EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN CENTRAL NC FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER... WE SHOULD BE SEEING A SLIGHT
RISE IN PW OVERNIGHT ACCORDING TO THE RAP IN CONJUNCTION WITH
PASSAGE OF A WAVE TO OUR NORTH ACROSS WV/VA/MD (PARTIALLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS EVENING`S SEVERE WEATHER OVER WV/WRN VA)... AND
THIS MAY BRUSH OVER THE FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE CWA. IN ADDITION...
POOLING OF HIGHER PW OVER THE SE CWA AS IS PROJECTED BY SEVERAL
MODELS MAY RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS THERE TOWARD MORNING. THE LATEST RAP RUN SUPPORTS THIS WITH A
MOISTENING COLUMN LATE TONIGHT AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF LINGERING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL RETAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR N/NE
AND OVER THE SE LATER TONIGHT. BASED ON THE WEAK MBE MOVEMENT NOTED
BY THE RAP AND DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL-0C NEARING 4 KM)... LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH SLOW-MOVING AND/OR TRAINING CELLS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING IN THE SE CWA. MILD LOWS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

ANOTHER MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING OVER
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE OUR CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KTS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 6-7 DEG C/KM. IN ADDITION...CENTRAL NC SEE INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT MONDAY AS WE BECOME UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 110+KT JET. THESE DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT
OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.5-1.7 INCHES OF >200
PERCENT OF NORMAL). THUS... SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ERUPT...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING WELL
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS.  MAIN CONCERN IS A HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT AS
TRAINING CELLS OVER URBAN LOCATIONS COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO FLOODING
OF STREETS AS WELL AS CREEKS/STREAMS. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT AREAL
COVERAGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THOUGH COULD
SEE THE NEEDED FOR A FEW URBAN/SMALL STREAM STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLY
A FFW OR TWO.

IF THE MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION ARRIVES PRIOR
TO 15Z...INITIATING SCATTERED CONVECTION SOONER THAN EXPECTED...THEN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED BUT COULD SEE AN
INCREASE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

HIGH TEMPS MONDAY DEPENDENT ON PARTIAL SUN OCCURRING IN THE EARLY-
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. IF CLOUDS SLOW TO DEPART OR SCATTERED
CONVECTION COMMENCES SOONER THAN 20Z...THEN HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP
BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER. MAX TEMPS 80-85. MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 258 PM SUNDAY...

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS EARLY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND MID-DAY. UNTIL FROPA...LOOK FOR RAIN
CHANCES TO CONTINUE...THUS AREAS FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...AND
PARTICULARLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SHOULD HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LOOK
FOR DRIER NW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD OUR CWA...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.  FAIR WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW...
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHES ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WORTH NOTING THOUGH...THIS
FRONT...AND THE AIRMASS JUST AHEAD OF IT...APPEARS TO HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE...RIGHT NOW WE`RE EXPECTING VERY MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOL NW FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR AREA
WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW PROGGED TO TRANSIT VA AND NC.  GIVEN THE THE
ASSOC INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM OR TWO WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW...THE
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO EXIT TO OUR EAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEG OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10
DEG BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...

AREAS OF STRATUS...IN MOIST/HUMID SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW BELOW A
TEMPERATURE INVERSION AROUND 1500 FT...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THIS MORNING...THOUGH COVERAGE AND CEILING HEIGHTS ARE BOTH
LIKELY TO BE MORE VARIABLE THAN IN RECENT DAYS. IN ADDITION...A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST IN A DEEPLY MOIST AND
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS MORNING...WITH THE RELATIVE
MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE AT KFAY.

OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT THROUGH MVFR RANGE AND SCATTER
BETWEEN 13-16Z. SUBSEQUENT DIURNAL HEATING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
HUMID AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND SUPPORT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AN APPALACHIAN LEE
SURFACE TROUGH AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION - BEST CONVEYED WITH A PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME RANGE.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN LINGER OVERNIGHT...AS
LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANES IN WSW FLOW ALOFT INTERACT WITH A
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

OUTLOOK: LATE NIGHT-MORNING LOW STRATUS...AND ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WILL PERSIST UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUE THROUGH EARLY
WED. A POLAR VORTEX WILL MEANWHILE MIGRATE FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
RESULTANT ENHANCED AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/STORMS...AS
DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS BENEATH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ATTENDING THE VORTEX.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS62 KRAH 020718
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
318 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
THROUGH EARLY WED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM SUNDAY...

ONE LONE MODEST CELL PASSED OVER THE TRIAD RECENTLY... BUT OTHERWISE
THE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE SRN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE APPROACHED BUT FAILED TO
SURVIVE THE TRIP INTO THE FORECAST AREA DESPITE THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN PLACE (PW OF 150-175% OF NORMAL). WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING (FOSTERING THE GROWTH IN CINH OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS) AND
IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY NOTABLE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT (WITH
FAIRLY FLAT WSW MID LEVEL FLOW AND NO DISTINCT LOW LEVEL JETTING)...
EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN CENTRAL NC FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER... WE SHOULD BE SEEING A SLIGHT
RISE IN PW OVERNIGHT ACCORDING TO THE RAP IN CONJUNCTION WITH
PASSAGE OF A WAVE TO OUR NORTH ACROSS WV/VA/MD (PARTIALLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS EVENING`S SEVERE WEATHER OVER WV/WRN VA)... AND
THIS MAY BRUSH OVER THE FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE CWA. IN ADDITION...
POOLING OF HIGHER PW OVER THE SE CWA AS IS PROJECTED BY SEVERAL
MODELS MAY RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS THERE TOWARD MORNING. THE LATEST RAP RUN SUPPORTS THIS WITH A
MOISTENING COLUMN LATE TONIGHT AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF LINGERING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL RETAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR N/NE
AND OVER THE SE LATER TONIGHT. BASED ON THE WEAK MBE MOVEMENT NOTED
BY THE RAP AND DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL-0C NEARING 4 KM)... LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH SLOW-MOVING AND/OR TRAINING CELLS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING IN THE SE CWA. MILD LOWS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

ANOTHER MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING OVER
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE OUR CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KTS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 6-7 DEG C/KM. IN ADDITION...CENTRAL NC SEE INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT MONDAY AS WE BECOME UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 110+KT JET. THESE DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT
OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.5-1.7 INCHES OF >200
PERCENT OF NORMAL). THUS... SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ERUPT...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING WELL
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS.  MAIN CONCERN IS A HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT AS
TRAINING CELLS OVER URBAN LOCATIONS COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO FLOODING
OF STREETS AS WELL AS CREEKS/STREAMS. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT AREAL
COVERAGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THOUGH COULD
SEE THE NEEDED FOR A FEW URBAN/SMALL STREAM STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLY
A FFW OR TWO.

IF THE MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION ARRIVES PRIOR
TO 15Z...INITIATING SCATTERED CONVECTION SOONER THAN EXPECTED...THEN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED BUT COULD SEE AN
INCREASE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

HIGH TEMPS MONDAY DEPENDENT ON PARTIAL SUN OCCURRING IN THE EARLY-
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. IF CLOUDS SLOW TO DEPART OR SCATTERED
CONVECTION COMMENCES SOONER THAN 20Z...THEN HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP
BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER. MAX TEMPS 80-85. MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 258 PM SUNDAY...

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS EARLY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND MID-DAY. UNTIL FROPA...LOOK FOR RAIN
CHANCES TO CONTINUE...THUS AREAS FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...AND
PARTICULARLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SHOULD HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LOOK
FOR DRIER NW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD OUR CWA...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.  FAIR WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW...
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHES ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WORTH NOTING THOUGH...THIS
FRONT...AND THE AIRMASS JUST AHEAD OF IT...APPEARS TO HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE...RIGHT NOW WE`RE EXPECTING VERY MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOL NW FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR AREA
WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW PROGGED TO TRANSIT VA AND NC.  GIVEN THE THE
ASSOC INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM OR TWO WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW...THE
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO EXIT TO OUR EAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEG OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10
DEG BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...

AREAS OF STRATUS...IN MOIST/HUMID SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW BELOW A
TEMPERATURE INVERSION AROUND 1500 FT...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THIS MORNING...THOUGH COVERAGE AND CEILING HEIGHTS ARE BOTH
LIKELY TO BE MORE VARIABLE THAN IN RECENT DAYS. IN ADDITION...A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST IN A DEEPLY MOIST AND
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS MORNING...WITH THE RELATIVE
MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE AT KFAY.

OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT THROUGH MVFR RANGE AND SCATTER
BETWEEN 13-16Z. SUBSEQUENT DIURNAL HEATING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
HUMID AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND SUPPORT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AN APPALACHIAN LEE
SURFACE TROUGH AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION - BEST CONVEYED WITH A PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME RANGE.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN LINGER OVERNIGHT...AS
LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANES IN WSW FLOW ALOFT INTERACT WITH A
CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND CONDITIONALY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

OUTLOOK: LATE NIGHT-MORNING LOW STRATUS...AND ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WILL PERSIST UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TUE THROUGH EARLY
WED. A POLAR VORTEX WILL MEANWHILE MIGRATE FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
RESULTANT ENHANCED AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/STORMS...AS
DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS BENEATH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ATTENDING THE VORTEX.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS62 KRAH 020139
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
940 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM AND HUMID FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WILL PERSIST INTO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY TUESDAY... AND MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM SUNDAY...

ONE LONE MODEST CELL PASSED OVER THE TRIAD RECENTLY... BUT OTHERWISE
THE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE SRN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE APPROACHED BUT FAILED TO
SURVIVE THE TRIP INTO THE FORECAST AREA DESPITE THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN PLACE (PW OF 150-175% OF NORMAL). WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING (FOSTERING THE GROWTH IN CINH OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS) AND
IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY NOTABLE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT (WITH
FAIRLY FLAT WSW MID LEVEL FLOW AND NO DISTINCT LOW LEVEL JETTING)...
EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN CENTRAL NC FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER... WE SHOULD BE SEEING A SLIGHT
RISE IN PW OVERNIGHT ACCORDING TO THE RAP IN CONJUNCTION WITH
PASSAGE OF A WAVE TO OUR NORTH ACROSS WV/VA/MD (PARTIALLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS EVENING`S SEVERE WEATHER OVER WV/WRN VA)... AND
THIS MAY BRUSH OVER THE FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE CWA. IN ADDITION...
POOLING OF HIGHER PW OVER THE SE CWA AS IS PROJECTED BY SEVERAL
MODELS MAY RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS THERE TOWARD MORNING. THE LATEST RAP RUN SUPPORTS THIS WITH A
MOISTENING COLUMN LATE TONIGHT AND A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF LINGERING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WILL RETAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR N/NE
AND OVER THE SE LATER TONIGHT. BASED ON THE WEAK MBE MOVEMENT NOTED
BY THE RAP AND DEEP WARM LAYER (LCL-0C NEARING 4 KM)... LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH SLOW-MOVING AND/OR TRAINING CELLS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING IN THE SE CWA. MILD LOWS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

ANOTHER MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING OVER
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE OUR CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KTS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 6-7 DEG C/KM. IN ADDITION...CENTRAL NC SEE INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT MONDAY AS WE BECOME UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 110+KT JET. THESE DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT
OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.5-1.7 INCHES OF >200
PERCENT OF NORMAL). THUS... SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ERUPT...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING WELL
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS.  MAIN CONCERN IS A HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT AS
TRAINING CELLS OVER URBAN LOCATIONS COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO FLOODING
OF STREETS AS WELL AS CREEKS/STREAMS. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT AREAL
COVERAGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THOUGH COULD
SEE THE NEEDED FOR A FEW URBAN/SMALL STREAM STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLY
A FFW OR TWO.

IF THE MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION ARRIVES PRIOR
TO 15Z...INITIATING SCATTERED CONVECTION SOONER THAN EXPECTED...THEN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED BUT COULD SEE AN
INCREASE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

HIGH TEMPS MONDAY DEPENDENT ON PARTIAL SUN OCCURRING IN THE EARLY-
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. IF CLOUDS SLOW TO DEPART OR SCATTERED
CONVECTION COMMENCES SOONER THAN 20Z...THEN HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP
BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER. MAX TEMPS 80-85. MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 258 PM SUNDAY...

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS EARLY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND MID-DAY. UNTIL FROPA...LOOK FOR RAIN
CHANCES TO CONTINUE...THUS AREAS FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...AND
PARTICULARLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SHOULD HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LOOK
FOR DRIER NW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD OUR CWA...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.  FAIR WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW...
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHES ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WORTH NOTING THOUGH...THIS
FRONT...AND THE AIRMASS JUST AHEAD OF IT...APPEARS TO HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE...RIGHT NOW WE`RE EXPECTING VERY MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOL NW FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR AREA
WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW PROGGED TO TRANSIT VA AND NC.  GIVEN THE THE
ASSOC INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM OR TWO WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW...THE
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO EXIT TO OUR EAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEG OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10
DEG BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM SUNDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO THE WEST...AFFECTING THE TRIAD TERMINALS AND POINTS SOUTH FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT
CONVECTION CHANCES TO DECREASE WITH TIME AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOW STRATUS (IFR/LIFR CIGS) IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE USUAL 08Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME ALONG WITH THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER. AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING MONDAY... HOWEVER SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN LIKELY ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY AFT/EVE...RESULTING IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WHERE
THEY OCCUR.

LOOKING AHEAD: THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS. PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FROM BOTH LOW STRATUS AND CONVECTION WILL BE
LIKELY. AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...KC





000
FXUS62 KRAH 012352
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
752 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AN EXITING MCV HAS SUPPRESSED ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON
CONVECTION THUS FAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS WITHIN THE 21Z-
00Z TIME FRAME AS WEAK VORTICES ALOFT INTERACT WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT BULK OF STORMS TO REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE CRITERIA THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A SHEAR AXIS PROJECTED TO DROP SEWD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND CROSS VA OVERNIGHT MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
REDEVELOP OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOW-MID 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

ANOTHER MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING OVER
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE OUR CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KTS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 6-7 DEG C/KM. IN ADDITION...CENTRAL NC SEE INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT MONDAY AS WE BECOME UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 110+KT JET. THESE DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT
OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.5-1.7 INCHES OF >200
PERCENT OF NORMAL). THUS... SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ERUPT...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING WELL
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS.  MAIN CONCERN IS A HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT AS
TRAINING CELLS OVER URBAN LOCATIONS COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO FLOODING
OF STREETS AS WELL AS CREEKS/STREAMS. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT AREAL
COVERAGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THOUGH COULD
SEE THE NEEDED FOR A FEW URBAN/SMALL STREAM STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLY
A FFW OR TWO.

IF THE MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION ARRIVES PRIOR
TO 15Z...INITIATING SCATTERED CONVECTION SOONER THAN EXPECTED...THEN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED BUT COULD SEE AN
INCREASE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

HIGH TEMPS MONDAY DEPENDENT ON PARTIAL SUN OCCURRING IN THE EARLY-
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. IF CLOUDS SLOW TO DEPART OR SCATTERED
CONVECTION COMMENCES SOONER THAN 20Z...THEN HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP
BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER. MAX TEMPS 80-85. MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 258 PM SUNDAY...

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS EARLY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND MID-DAY. UNTIL FROPA...LOOK FOR RAIN
CHANCES TO CONTINUE...THUS AREAS FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...AND
PARTICULARLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SHOULD HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LOOK
FOR DRIER NW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD OUR CWA...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.  FAIR WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW...
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHES ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WORTH NOTING THOUGH...THIS
FRONT...AND THE AIRMASS JUST AHEAD OF IT...APPEARS TO HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE...RIGHT NOW WE`RE EXPECTING VERY MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOL NW FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR AREA
WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW PROGGED TO TRANSIT VA AND NC.  GIVEN THE THE
ASSOC INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM OR TWO WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW...THE
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO EXIT TO OUR EAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEG OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10
DEG BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM SUNDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO THE WEST...AFFECTING THE TRIAD TERMINALS AND POINTS SOUTH FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT
CONVECTION CHANCES TO DECREASE WITH TIME AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOW STRATUS (IFR/LIFR CIGS) IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE USUAL 08Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME ALONG WITH THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER. AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING MONDAY... HOWEVER SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN LIKELY ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY AFT/EVE...RESULTING IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WHERE
THEY OCCUR.

LOOKING AHEAD: THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS. PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FROM BOTH LOW STRATUS AND CONVECTION WILL BE
LIKELY. AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...KC





000
FXUS62 KRAH 012352
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
752 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AN EXITING MCV HAS SUPPRESSED ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON
CONVECTION THUS FAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS WITHIN THE 21Z-
00Z TIME FRAME AS WEAK VORTICES ALOFT INTERACT WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT BULK OF STORMS TO REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE CRITERIA THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A SHEAR AXIS PROJECTED TO DROP SEWD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND CROSS VA OVERNIGHT MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
REDEVELOP OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOW-MID 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

ANOTHER MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING OVER
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE OUR CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KTS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 6-7 DEG C/KM. IN ADDITION...CENTRAL NC SEE INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT MONDAY AS WE BECOME UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 110+KT JET. THESE DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT
OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.5-1.7 INCHES OF >200
PERCENT OF NORMAL). THUS... SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ERUPT...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING WELL
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS.  MAIN CONCERN IS A HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT AS
TRAINING CELLS OVER URBAN LOCATIONS COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO FLOODING
OF STREETS AS WELL AS CREEKS/STREAMS. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT AREAL
COVERAGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THOUGH COULD
SEE THE NEEDED FOR A FEW URBAN/SMALL STREAM STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLY
A FFW OR TWO.

IF THE MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION ARRIVES PRIOR
TO 15Z...INITIATING SCATTERED CONVECTION SOONER THAN EXPECTED...THEN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED BUT COULD SEE AN
INCREASE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

HIGH TEMPS MONDAY DEPENDENT ON PARTIAL SUN OCCURRING IN THE EARLY-
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. IF CLOUDS SLOW TO DEPART OR SCATTERED
CONVECTION COMMENCES SOONER THAN 20Z...THEN HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP
BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER. MAX TEMPS 80-85. MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 258 PM SUNDAY...

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS EARLY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND MID-DAY. UNTIL FROPA...LOOK FOR RAIN
CHANCES TO CONTINUE...THUS AREAS FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...AND
PARTICULARLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SHOULD HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LOOK
FOR DRIER NW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD OUR CWA...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.  FAIR WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW...
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHES ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WORTH NOTING THOUGH...THIS
FRONT...AND THE AIRMASS JUST AHEAD OF IT...APPEARS TO HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE...RIGHT NOW WE`RE EXPECTING VERY MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOL NW FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR AREA
WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW PROGGED TO TRANSIT VA AND NC.  GIVEN THE THE
ASSOC INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM OR TWO WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW...THE
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO EXIT TO OUR EAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEG OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10
DEG BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM SUNDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO THE WEST...AFFECTING THE TRIAD TERMINALS AND POINTS SOUTH FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT
CONVECTION CHANCES TO DECREASE WITH TIME AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOW STRATUS (IFR/LIFR CIGS) IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE USUAL 08Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME ALONG WITH THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER. AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING MONDAY... HOWEVER SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE AGAIN LIKELY ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY AFT/EVE...RESULTING IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WHERE
THEY OCCUR.

LOOKING AHEAD: THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS. PERIODS
OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FROM BOTH LOW STRATUS AND CONVECTION WILL BE
LIKELY. AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...KC





000
FXUS62 KRAH 011935
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND AN EXITING MCV HAS SUPPRESSED ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON
CONVECTION THUS FAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS WITHIN THE 21Z-
00Z TIME FRAME AS WEAK VORTICES ALOFT INTERACT WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT BULK OF STORMS TO REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE CRITERIA THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A SHEAR AXIS PROJECTED TO DROP SEWD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND CROSS VA OVERNIGHT MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
REDEVELOP OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOW-MID 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

ANOTHER MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING OVER
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
ENHANCE OUR CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KTS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 6-7 DEG C/KM. IN ADDITION...CENTRAL NC SEE INCREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT MONDAY AS WE BECOME UNDERNEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 110+KT JET. THESE DYNAMICS SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT
OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIP WATER VALUES 1.5-1.7 INCHES OF >200
PERCENT OF NORMAL). THUS... SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ERUPT...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING WELL
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE MARGINAL...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS.  MAIN CONCERN IS A HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT AS
TRAINING CELLS OVER URBAN LOCATIONS COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO FLOODING
OF STREETS AS WELL AS CREEKS/STREAMS. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT AREAL
COVERAGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THOUGH COULD
SEE THE NEEDED FOR A FEW URBAN/SMALL STREAM STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLY
A FFW OR TWO.

IF THE MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION ARRIVES PRIOR
TO 15Z...INITIATING SCATTERED CONVECTION SOONER THAN EXPECTED...THEN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE GREATLY DIMINISHED BUT COULD SEE AN
INCREASE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

HIGH TEMPS MONDAY DEPENDENT ON PARTIAL SUN OCCURRING IN THE EARLY-
MID AFTERNOON HOURS. IF CLOUDS SLOW TO DEPART OR SCATTERED
CONVECTION COMMENCES SOONER THAN 20Z...THEN HIGH TEMPS MAY END UP
BEING 3-4 DEGREES COOLER. MAX TEMPS 80-85. MIN TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 258 PM SUNDAY...

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS EARLY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND MID-DAY. UNTIL FROPA...LOOK FOR RAIN
CHANCES TO CONTINUE...THUS AREAS FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...AND
PARTICULARLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SHOULD HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LOOK
FOR DRIER NW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD OUR CWA...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.  FAIR WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW...
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHES ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WORTH NOTING THOUGH...THIS
FRONT...AND THE AIRMASS JUST AHEAD OF IT...APPEARS TO HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE...RIGHT NOW WE`RE EXPECTING VERY MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOL NW FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR AREA
WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW PROGGED TO TRANSIT VA AND NC.  GIVEN THE THE
ASSOC INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM OR TWO WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW...THE
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO EXIT TO OUR EAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEG OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10
DEG BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...

CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST SITES EITHER HIGH END MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS
BY 21Z-22. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT
OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES BY 19Z. AFTER 20Z...COULD SEE RANDOM
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT THOUGH
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. BEST PROSPECTS ARE IN VICINITY OF
THE TRIAD TERMINALS SO WILL HAVE A TEMPO FOR CONVECTION AT THOSE
SITES.

LATER TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AND
PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO SKIRT
NEAR OR NORTH OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS AS WELL AS KRDU AND KRWI.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECT TO LIFT BY MID DAY. WITH INCREASING
SUNSHINE...ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE STRONG-SEVERE BETWEEN 21Z-04Z. IN ADDITION...BLINDING
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS. IT IS HIGHLY PROBABLE THAT
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR PARAMETERS WILL OCCUR DUE TO CEILINGS...IN
ADDITION TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 011857
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
258 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY...AHEAD OF SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM SUNDAY...

A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT AIDING TO MAINTAIN A BROKEN BAND OF
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE SHOWING UP NICELY ON REGIONAL RADAR TRAVERSING EAST
ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. A MID LEVEL VORTICITY (PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY) APPEARS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND ON INTO VA. THESE FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE EAST AND EXIT OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES
PRIOR TO MID AFTERNOON.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THESE FEATURES WILL INITIALLY INHIBIT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON. BY 20Z-
21Z...PARTIAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. WHILE PARAMETERS IN PLACE FOR T-STORM
DEVELOPMENT...APPEARS BULK OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
CRITERIA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND BANDS OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS INITIALLY
LIMITING TEMP RECOVERY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT MAX
TEMP FORECAST AS PARTIAL SUN MAY NOT BECOME PROMINENT UNTIL AFTER
18Z...POSSIBLY TOO LATE TO HAVE ANY APPRECIABLE EFFECTS. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. -WSS

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
IT WILL ALSO BE MORE HUMID...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S AND SUPPORTIVE OF AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS... THOUGH NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THOSE SUPPORTED BY THE WEDGE REGIME OF THE PREVIOUS
TWO NIGHTS. -26

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...

THE FRONTAL ZONE LINGERING JUST TO OUT SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
BACK NORTH TODAY AND RESIDE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL VA ON MONDAY.  WARM
SECTOR HEATING AND PW RISING TO 1.5" WILL RESULT IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION...WITH NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING UPWARDS
OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...AIDED IN PART BY MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM.  DESPITE THE ENHANCED BOUYANCY AND
MOISTURE...RELATIVELY UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ONLY A
WEAK LEE TROUGHING MAKES ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT SOMEWHAT
NEBULOUS...WITH THE BIGGER PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.  THIS ALSO KEEP CENTRAL NC ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE STRONGER 50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW...LIMITING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO 25-30KT. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE..BUT THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
HIGHEST IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE IS BETTER. HIGHS 80-83.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE MO VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY
TODAY WILL FINALLY GET A KICK EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE FINAL SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY.  RENEWED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES OVER WESTERN NC MONDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.  A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL THEN SWING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY AND ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY.  HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A
MOIST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER EASTERN NC MAY RESULT IN A
BETTER SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY GIVEN 35-40KT
FOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES SHIFTS EAST.

MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE RAISED INTO THE LOWER 60S GIVEN THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 258 PM SUNDAY...

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS EARLY ON TUESDAY...WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT NOW PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND MID-DAY. UNTIL FROPA...LOOK FOR RAIN
CHANCES TO CONTINUE...THUS AREAS FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD...AND
PARTICULARLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SHOULD HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LOOK
FOR DRIER NW FLOW TO OVERSPREAD OUR CWA...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.  FAIR WEATHER WILL THEN CONTINUE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A FAIRLY DEEP CLOSED LOW...
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHES ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WORTH NOTING THOUGH...THIS
FRONT...AND THE AIRMASS JUST AHEAD OF IT...APPEARS TO HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE...RIGHT NOW WE`RE EXPECTING VERY MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOL NW FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR AREA
WITH THE UPPER LOW NOW PROGGED TO TRANSIT VA AND NC.  GIVEN THE THE
ASSOC INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM OR TWO WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IT APPEARS RIGHT NOW...THE
UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO EXIT TO OUR EAST LATE FRIDAY...WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEG OF NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10
DEG BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...

CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST SITES EITHER HIGH END MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS
BY 21Z-22. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT
OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES BY 19Z. AFTER 20Z...COULD SEE RANDOM
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT THOUGH
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. BEST PROSPECTS ARE IN VICINITY OF
THE TRIAD TERMINALS SO WILL HAVE A TEMPO FOR CONVECTION AT THOSE
SITES.

LATER TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AND
PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO SKIRT
NEAR OR NORTH OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS AS WELL AS KRDU AND KRWI.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECT TO LIFT BY MID DAY. WITH INCREASING
SUNSHINE...ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE STRONG-SEVERE BETWEEN 21Z-04Z. IN ADDITION...BLINDING
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS. IT IS HIGHLY PROBABLE THAT
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR PARAMETERS WILL OCCUR DUE TO CEILINGS...IN
ADDITION TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/26
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 011801
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY...AHEAD OF SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM SUNDAY...

A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT AIDING TO MAINTAIN A BROKEN BAND OF
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE SHOWING UP NICELY ON REGIONAL RADAR TRAVERSING EAST
ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. A MID LEVEL VORTICITY (PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY) APPEARS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND ON INTO VA. THESE FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE EAST AND EXIT OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES
PRIOR TO MID AFTERNOON.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THESE FEATURES WILL INITIALLY INHIBIT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON. BY 20Z-
21Z...PARTIAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. WHILE PARAMETERS IN PLACE FOR T-STORM
DEVELOPMENT...APPEARS BULK OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
CRITERIA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND BANDS OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS INITIALLY
LIMITING TEMP RECOVERY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT MAX
TEMP FORECAST AS PARTIAL SUN MAY NOT BECOME PROMINENT UNTIL AFTER
18Z...POSSIBLY TOO LATE TO HAVE ANY APPRECIABLE EFFECTS. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. -WSS

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
IT WILL ALSO BE MORE HUMID...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S AND SUPPORTIVE OF AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS... THOUGH NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THOSE SUPPORTED BY THE WEDGE REGIME OF THE PREVIOUS
TWO NIGHTS. -26

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...

THE FRONTAL ZONE LINGERING JUST TO OUT SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
BACK NORTH TODAY AND RESIDE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL VA ON MONDAY.  WARM
SECTOR HEATING AND PW RISING TO 1.5" WILL RESULT IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION...WITH NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING UPWARDS
OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...AIDED IN PART BY MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM.  DESPITE THE ENHANCED BOUYANCY AND
MOISTURE...RELATIVELY UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ONLY A
WEAK LEE TROUGHING MAKES ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT SOMEWHAT
NEBULOUS...WITH THE BIGGER PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.  THIS ALSO KEEP CENTRAL NC ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE STRONGER 50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW...LIMITING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO 25-30KT. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE..BUT THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
HIGHEST IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE IS BETTER. HIGHS 80-83.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE MO VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY
TODAY WILL FINALLY GET A KICK EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE FINAL SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY.  RENEWED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES OVER WESTERN NC MONDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.  A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL THEN SWING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY AND ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY.  HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A
MOIST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER EASTERN NC MAY RESULT IN A
BETTER SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY GIVEN 35-40KT
FOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES SHIFTS EAST.

MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE RAISED INTO THE LOWER 60S GIVEN THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...

THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED STILL APPEARS TO BE HEADED TOWARD AN
OMEGA BLOCK..WITH A STOUT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A DEEP UPPER
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WITH H5 HEIGHTS 2-3
STD BELOW NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST US.  THIS WILL SUPPORT THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA EACH DAY HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BRING THE COOLEST PERIOD
WHEN H10-H95 THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO DIP BELOW
1340M...SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW A SLOW BREAK DOWN OF THE
BLOCKING PATTERN...SO TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...

CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST SITES EITHER HIGH END MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS
BY 21Z-22. AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT
OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES BY 19Z. AFTER 20Z...COULD SEE RANDOM
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT THOUGH
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. BEST PROSPECTS ARE IN VICINITY OF
THE TRIAD TERMINALS SO WILL HAVE A TEMPO FOR CONVECTION AT THOSE
SITES.

LATER TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AND
PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO SKIRT
NEAR OR NORTH OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS AS WELL AS KRDU AND KRWI.

LOW CLOUDS EXPECT TO LIFT BY MID DAY. WITH INCREASING
SUNSHINE...ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE STRONG-SEVERE BETWEEN 21Z-04Z. IN ADDITION...BLINDING
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS. IT IS HIGHLY PROBABLE THAT
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR PARAMETERS WILL OCCUR DUE TO CEILINGS...IN
ADDITION TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/26
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 011521
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1120 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY...AHEAD OF SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1120 AM SUNDAY...

A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND MODEST LIFT AIDING TO MAINTAIN A BROKEN BAND OF
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE SHOWING UP NICELY ON REGIONAL RADAR TRAVERSING EAST
ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER. A MID LEVEL VORTICITY (PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY) APPEARS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SCATTERED CONVECTION
OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND ON INTO VA. THESE FEATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE EAST AND EXIT OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES
PRIOR TO MID AFTERNOON.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THESE FEATURES WILL INITIALLY INHIBIT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON. BY 20Z-
21Z...PARTIAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES. WHILE PARAMETERS IN PLACE FOR T-STORM
DEVELOPMENT...APPEARS BULK OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
CRITERIA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND BANDS OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS INITIALLY
LIMITING TEMP RECOVERY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT MAX
TEMP FORECAST AS PARTIAL SUN MAY NOT BECOME PROMINENT UNTIL AFTER
18Z...POSSIBLY TOO LATE TO HAVE ANY APPRECIABLE EFFECTS. MAY NEED TO
ADJUST MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. -WSS

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
IT WILL ALSO BE MORE HUMID...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S AND SUPPORTIVE OF AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS... THOUGH NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THOSE SUPPORTED BY THE WEDGE REGIME OF THE PREVIOUS
TWO NIGHTS. -26

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...

THE FRONTAL ZONE LINGERING JUST TO OUT SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
BACK NORTH TODAY AND RESIDE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL VA ON MONDAY.  WARM
SECTOR HEATING AND PW RISING TO 1.5" WILL RESULT IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION...WITH NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING UPWARDS
OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...AIDED IN PART BY MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM.  DESPITE THE ENHANCED BOUYANCY AND
MOISTURE...RELATIVELY UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ONLY A
WEAK LEE TROUGHING MAKES ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT SOMEWHAT
NEBULOUS...WITH THE BIGGER PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.  THIS ALSO KEEP CENTRAL NC ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE STRONGER 50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW...LIMITING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO 25-30KT. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE..BUT THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
HIGHEST IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE IS BETTER. HIGHS 80-83.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE MO VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY
TODAY WILL FINALLY GET A KICK EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE FINAL SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY.  RENEWED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES OVER WESTERN NC MONDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.  A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL THEN SWING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY AND ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY.  HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A
MOIST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER EASTERN NC MAY RESULT IN A
BETTER SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY GIVEN 35-40KT
FOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES SHIFTS EAST.

MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE RAISED INTO THE LOWER 60S GIVEN THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...

THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED STILL APPEARS TO BE HEADED TOWARD AN
OMEGA BLOCK..WITH A STOUT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A DEEP UPPER
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WITH H5 HEIGHTS 2-3
STD BELOW NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST US.  THIS WILL SUPPORT THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA EACH DAY HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BRING THE COOLEST PERIOD
WHEN H10-H95 THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO DIP BELOW
1340M...SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW A SLOW BREAK DOWN OF THE
BLOCKING PATTERN...SO TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 750 AM SUNDAY...

A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS MORNING-
MIDDAY AT FAY AND MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED EROSION/SCATTERING/LIFTING OF THE PRECEDING LOW
CLOUDS...AND A SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM AND BREEZY SW WIND.
HOWEVER...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION/PASSAGE OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME MAY TEMPORARILY SLOW THOSE
PROCESSES AND THE CONSEQUENT RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

WHILE THE AIR MASS WILL CONSEQUENTLY DESTABILIZE AND BE RIPE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE ABSENCE
OF ANY NOTABLE TRIGGER BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT --ASIDE FROM
LOW PREDICTABILITY MESOSCALE ONES SUCH AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG
THE RETREATING WARM FRONT-- SUGGEST ASSOCIATED FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO MAINTAIN A PROLONGED/SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF THUNDER
AREA-WIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR SUCH OCCURRENCE AT A GIVEN POINT/TAF SITE.
INSTEAD...HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP WITH THUNDER ONLY AT TRIAD
TAF SITES FOR NOW...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
RETREATING WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS INTO VA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO THERE WILL REMAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD...WITH THE RELATIVE BETTER CHANCE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AN INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS WILL
SUPPORT THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...
PARTICULARLY AT EASTERN TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK: A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COAST...WITH ASSOCIATED PERIODS OF RAIN AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC...LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. A POLAR
VORTEX WILL MEANWHILE MIGRATE FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH RESULTANT
ENHANCED AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/STORMS...AS DIURNAL
HEATING OCCURS BENEATH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ATTENDING THE
VORTEX.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...WSS/26
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS62 KRAH 011153
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
753 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY...AHEAD OF SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ACCOMPANYING MCV WILL MOVE IN WSW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS A REMNANT COOL/STABLE/WEDGE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS AREA OF SHOWERS MAY TEMPORARILY SLOW AN
OTHERWISE STEADY NORTHWARD RETREAT OF A WARM FRONT THAT NOW ARCS
AROUND THE THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS - FROM
NORTH- CENTRAL GA NEWD TO NEAR KCLT...THEN SEWD TO THE CENTRAL SC
COAST.

THE RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN AN ASSOCIATED
EROSION/SCATTERING/LIFTING OF THE PRECEDING LOW CLOUDS...AND A
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM AND BREEZY SW WIND. WHILE THE AIR
MASS WILL CONSEQUENTLY MODERATELY DESTABILIZE AS TEMPERATURES WARM
THROUGH THE 70S AND UPSTREAM SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SURGE
NEWD...AND BECOME RIPE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE ABSENCE OF ANY NOTABLE TRIGGERS OVER
CENTRAL NC (BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT) --ASIDE FROM LOW
PREDICTABILITY MESOSCALE ONES SUCH AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE
RETREATING WARM FRONT AND/OR LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED WSW FLOW ALOFT-- YIELDS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
INDEED...THERE IS NO CLEAR SIGNAL IN HI-RESOLUTION CAM GUIDANCE.

IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF STORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPSTREAM WARM SECTOR --BENEATH A REMNANT EML
PLUME SAMPLED BY RAOBS OVER THE LOWER-MIDDLE MS VALLEY LAST EVENING--
 BOTH INVOF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE COLD AIR DAMMING/WEDGE
FRONTAL SEGMENT (IE. OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY)...AND ALONG THE EAST-
FACING SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL THEN LIKELY DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES...MAINTAINED BY THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE EML PLUME AND
ASSOCIATED RELATIVELY STEEP /6-7 C/KM/ MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BULK SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST/ AROUND 40-45 KTS/ AND SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...WITH PROGRESSIVELY
WEAKER VALUES / TO AROUND 30 KTS/ AND MORE FAVORABLE FOR MULTI-
CELLULAR MODES OVER SOUTHERN NC. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
CONSEQUENTLY BE GREATEST OVER THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT...WHERE BOTH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE FAVORED.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
IT WILL ALSO BE MORE HUMID...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S AND SUPPORTIVE OF AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS... THOUGH NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THOSE SUPPORTED BY THE WEDGE REGIME OF THE PREVIOUS
TWO NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...

THE FRONTAL ZONE LINGERING JUST TO OUT SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
BACK NORTH TODAY AND RESIDE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL VA ON MONDAY.  WARM
SECTOR HEATING AND PW RISING TO 1.5" WILL RESULT IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION...WITH NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING UPWARDS
OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...AIDED IN PART BY MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM.  DESPITE THE ENHANCED BOUYANCY AND
MOISTURE...RELATIVELY UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ONLY A
WEAK LEE TROUGHING MAKES ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT SOMEWHAT
NEBULOUS...WITH THE BIGGER PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.  THIS ALSO KEEP CENTRAL NC ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE STRONGER 50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW...LIMITING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO 25-30KT. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE..BUT THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
HIGHEST IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE IS BETTER. HIGHS 80-83.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE MO VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY
TODAY WILL FINALLY GET A KICK EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE FINAL SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY.  RENEWED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES OVER WESTERN NC MONDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.  A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL THEN SWING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY AND ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY.  HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A
MOIST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER EASTERN NC MAY RESULT IN A
BETTER SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY GIVEN 35-40KT
FOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES SHIFTS EAST.

MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE RAISED INTO THE LOWER 60S GIVEN THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...

THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED STILL APPEARS TO BE HEADED TOWARD AN
OMEGA BLOCK..WITH A STOUT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A DEEP UPPER
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WITH H5 HEIGHTS 2-3
STD BELOW NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST US.  THIS WILL SUPPORT THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA EACH DAY HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BRING THE COOLEST PERIOD
WHEN H10-H95 THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO DIP BELOW
1340M...SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW A SLOW BREAK DOWN OF THE
BLOCKING PATTERN...SO TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 750 AM SUNDAY...

A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS MORNING-
MIDDAY AT FAY AND MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED EROSION/SCATTERING/LIFTING OF THE PRECEDING LOW
CLOUDS...AND A SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM AND BREEZY SW WIND.
HOWEVER...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION/PASSAGE OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME MAY TEMPORARILY SLOW THOSE
PROCESSES AND THE CONSEQUENT RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

WHILE THE AIR MASS WILL CONSEQUENTLY DESTABILIZE AND BE RIPE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE ABSENCE
OF ANY NOTABLE TRIGGER BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT --ASIDE FROM
LOW PREDICTABILITY MESOSCALE ONES SUCH AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG
THE RETREATING WARM FRONT-- SUGGEST ASSOCIATED FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO MAINTAIN A PROLONGED/SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF THUNDER
AREA-WIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR SUCH OCCURRENCE AT A GIVEN POINT/TAF SITE.
INSTEAD...HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP WITH THUNDER ONLY AT TRIAD
TAF SITES FOR NOW...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
RETREATING WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS INTO VA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO THERE WILL REMAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD...WITH THE RELATIVE BETTER CHANCE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AN INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS WILL
SUPPORT THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...
PARTICULARLY AT EASTERN TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK: A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COAST...WITH ASSOCIATED PERIODS OF RAIN AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC...LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. A POLAR
VORTEX WILL MEANWHILE MIGRATE FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH RESULTANT
ENHANCED AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/STORMS...AS DIURNAL
HEATING OCCURS BENEATH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ATTENDING THE
VORTEX.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS62 KRAH 011153
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
753 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY...AHEAD OF SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ACCOMPANYING MCV WILL MOVE IN WSW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS A REMNANT COOL/STABLE/WEDGE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS AREA OF SHOWERS MAY TEMPORARILY SLOW AN
OTHERWISE STEADY NORTHWARD RETREAT OF A WARM FRONT THAT NOW ARCS
AROUND THE THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS - FROM
NORTH- CENTRAL GA NEWD TO NEAR KCLT...THEN SEWD TO THE CENTRAL SC
COAST.

THE RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN AN ASSOCIATED
EROSION/SCATTERING/LIFTING OF THE PRECEDING LOW CLOUDS...AND A
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM AND BREEZY SW WIND. WHILE THE AIR
MASS WILL CONSEQUENTLY MODERATELY DESTABILIZE AS TEMPERATURES WARM
THROUGH THE 70S AND UPSTREAM SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SURGE
NEWD...AND BECOME RIPE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE ABSENCE OF ANY NOTABLE TRIGGERS OVER
CENTRAL NC (BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT) --ASIDE FROM LOW
PREDICTABILITY MESOSCALE ONES SUCH AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE
RETREATING WARM FRONT AND/OR LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED WSW FLOW ALOFT-- YIELDS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
INDEED...THERE IS NO CLEAR SIGNAL IN HI-RESOLUTION CAM GUIDANCE.

IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF STORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPSTREAM WARM SECTOR --BENEATH A REMNANT EML
PLUME SAMPLED BY RAOBS OVER THE LOWER-MIDDLE MS VALLEY LAST EVENING--
 BOTH INVOF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE COLD AIR DAMMING/WEDGE
FRONTAL SEGMENT (IE. OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY)...AND ALONG THE EAST-
FACING SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL THEN LIKELY DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES...MAINTAINED BY THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE EML PLUME AND
ASSOCIATED RELATIVELY STEEP /6-7 C/KM/ MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BULK SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST/ AROUND 40-45 KTS/ AND SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...WITH PROGRESSIVELY
WEAKER VALUES / TO AROUND 30 KTS/ AND MORE FAVORABLE FOR MULTI-
CELLULAR MODES OVER SOUTHERN NC. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
CONSEQUENTLY BE GREATEST OVER THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT...WHERE BOTH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE FAVORED.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
IT WILL ALSO BE MORE HUMID...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S AND SUPPORTIVE OF AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS... THOUGH NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THOSE SUPPORTED BY THE WEDGE REGIME OF THE PREVIOUS
TWO NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...

THE FRONTAL ZONE LINGERING JUST TO OUT SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
BACK NORTH TODAY AND RESIDE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL VA ON MONDAY.  WARM
SECTOR HEATING AND PW RISING TO 1.5" WILL RESULT IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION...WITH NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING UPWARDS
OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...AIDED IN PART BY MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM.  DESPITE THE ENHANCED BOUYANCY AND
MOISTURE...RELATIVELY UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ONLY A
WEAK LEE TROUGHING MAKES ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT SOMEWHAT
NEBULOUS...WITH THE BIGGER PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.  THIS ALSO KEEP CENTRAL NC ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE STRONGER 50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW...LIMITING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO 25-30KT. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE..BUT THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
HIGHEST IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE IS BETTER. HIGHS 80-83.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE MO VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY
TODAY WILL FINALLY GET A KICK EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE FINAL SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY.  RENEWED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES OVER WESTERN NC MONDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.  A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL THEN SWING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY AND ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY.  HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A
MOIST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER EASTERN NC MAY RESULT IN A
BETTER SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY GIVEN 35-40KT
FOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES SHIFTS EAST.

MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE RAISED INTO THE LOWER 60S GIVEN THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...

THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED STILL APPEARS TO BE HEADED TOWARD AN
OMEGA BLOCK..WITH A STOUT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A DEEP UPPER
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WITH H5 HEIGHTS 2-3
STD BELOW NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST US.  THIS WILL SUPPORT THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA EACH DAY HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BRING THE COOLEST PERIOD
WHEN H10-H95 THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO DIP BELOW
1340M...SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW A SLOW BREAK DOWN OF THE
BLOCKING PATTERN...SO TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 750 AM SUNDAY...

A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS MORNING-
MIDDAY AT FAY AND MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED EROSION/SCATTERING/LIFTING OF THE PRECEDING LOW
CLOUDS...AND A SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM AND BREEZY SW WIND.
HOWEVER...THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION/PASSAGE OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME MAY TEMPORARILY SLOW THOSE
PROCESSES AND THE CONSEQUENT RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

WHILE THE AIR MASS WILL CONSEQUENTLY DESTABILIZE AND BE RIPE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE ABSENCE
OF ANY NOTABLE TRIGGER BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT --ASIDE FROM
LOW PREDICTABILITY MESOSCALE ONES SUCH AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG
THE RETREATING WARM FRONT-- SUGGEST ASSOCIATED FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO MAINTAIN A PROLONGED/SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF THUNDER
AREA-WIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR SUCH OCCURRENCE AT A GIVEN POINT/TAF SITE.
INSTEAD...HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP WITH THUNDER ONLY AT TRIAD
TAF SITES FOR NOW...IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
RETREATING WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS INTO VA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO THERE WILL REMAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD...WITH THE RELATIVE BETTER CHANCE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AN INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS WILL
SUPPORT THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...
PARTICULARLY AT EASTERN TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK: A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COAST...WITH ASSOCIATED PERIODS OF RAIN AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC...LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. A POLAR
VORTEX WILL MEANWHILE MIGRATE FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH RESULTANT
ENHANCED AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/STORMS...AS DIURNAL
HEATING OCCURS BENEATH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ATTENDING THE
VORTEX.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010828
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
428 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY...AHEAD OF SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ACCOMPANYING MCV WILL MOVE IN WSW FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS A REMNANT COOL/STABLE/WEDGE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS AREA OF SHOWERS MAY TEMPORARILY SLOW AN
OTHERWISE STEADY NORTHWARD RETREAT OF A WARM FRONT THAT NOW ARCS
AROUND THE THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS - FROM
NORTH- CENTRAL GA NEWD TO NEAR KCLT...THEN SEWD TO THE CENTRAL SC
COAST.

THE RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN AN ASSOCIATED
EROSION/SCATTERING/LIFTING OF THE PRECEDING LOW CLOUDS...AND A
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM AND BREEZY SW WIND. WHILE THE AIR
MASS WILL CONSEQUENTLY MODERATELY DESTABILIZE AS TEMPERATURES WARM
THROUGH THE 70S AND UPSTREAM SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SURGE
NEWD...AND BECOME RIPE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE ABSENCE OF ANY NOTABLE TRIGGERS OVER
CENTRAL NC (BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT) --ASIDE FROM LOW
PREDICTABILITY MESOSCALE ONES SUCH AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE
RETREATING WARM FRONT AND/OR LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED WSW FLOW ALOFT-- YIELDS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
INDEED...THERE IS NO CLEAR SIGNAL IN HI-RESOLUTION CAM GUIDANCE.

IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT AT LEAST A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF STORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPSTREAM WARM SECTOR --BENEATH A REMNANT EML
PLUME SAMPLED BY RAOBS OVER THE LOWER-MIDDLE MS VALLEY LAST EVENING--
 BOTH INVOF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE COLD AIR DAMMING/WEDGE
FRONTAL SEGMENT (IE. OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY)...AND ALONG THE EAST-
FACING SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL THEN LIKELY DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES...MAINTAINED BY THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF THE EML PLUME AND
ASSOCIATED RELATIVELY STEEP /6-7 C/KM/ MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BULK SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST/ AROUND 40-45 KTS/ AND SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS...WITH PROGRESSIVELY
WEAKER VALUES / TO AROUND 30 KTS/ AND MORE FAVORABLE FOR MULTI-
CELLULAR MODES OVER SOUTHERN NC. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
CONSEQUENTLY BE GREATEST OVER THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT...WHERE BOTH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE FAVORED.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
IT WILL ALSO BE MORE HUMID...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S AND SUPPORTIVE OF AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS... THOUGH NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS THOSE SUPPORTED BY THE WEDGE REGIME OF THE PREVIOUS
TWO NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...

THE FRONTAL ZONE LINGERING JUST TO OUT SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
BACK NORTH TODAY AND RESIDE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL VA ON MONDAY.  WARM
SECTOR HEATING AND PW RISING TO 1.5" WILL RESULT IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION...WITH NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING UPWARDS
OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...AIDED IN PART BY MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5C/KM.  DESPITE THE ENHANCED BOUYANCY AND
MOISTURE...RELATIVELY UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND ONLY A
WEAK LEE TROUGHING MAKES ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT SOMEWHAT
NEBULOUS...WITH THE BIGGER PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES CENTRAL PLAINS TRACKING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.  THIS ALSO KEEP CENTRAL NC ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE STRONGER 50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW...LIMITING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO 25-30KT. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE..BUT THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
HIGHEST IN THE EAST WHERE MOISTURE IS BETTER. HIGHS 80-83.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE MO VALLEY TO THE OH VALLEY
TODAY WILL FINALLY GET A KICK EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE FINAL SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY.  RENEWED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES OVER WESTERN NC MONDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.  A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL THEN SWING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY AND ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY.  HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A
MOIST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER EASTERN NC MAY RESULT IN A
BETTER SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY GIVEN 35-40KT
FOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES SHIFTS EAST.

MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE RAISED INTO THE LOWER 60S GIVEN THE SLOWER
TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM SUNDAY...

THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED STILL APPEARS TO BE HEADED TOWARD AN
OMEGA BLOCK..WITH A STOUT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND A DEEP UPPER
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WITH H5 HEIGHTS 2-3
STD BELOW NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST US.  THIS WILL SUPPORT THE
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA EACH DAY HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND.  A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BRING THE COOLEST PERIOD
WHEN H10-H95 THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO DIP BELOW
1340M...SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW A SLOW BREAK DOWN OF THE
BLOCKING PATTERN...SO TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM SUNDAY...

INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW JUST ABOVE A RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE
LAYER OF AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN THE EXPANSION AND
LOWERING OF IFR-MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL
RETREAT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS MORNING-MIDDAY AT FAY AND
MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE...WITH AN ASSOCIATED EROSION/
SCATTERING/LIFTING OF THE PRECEDING LOW CLOUDS...AND A SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM AND BREEZY SW WIND. HOWEVER...THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION/PASSAGE OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE SAME TIME
FRAME MAY TEMPORARILY SLOW THOSE PROCESSES AND THE CONSEQUENT RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS.

WHILE THE AIR MASS WILL CONSEQUENTLY DESTABILIZE AND BE RIPE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE ABSENCE
OF ANY NOTABLE TRIGGER BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT --ASIDE FROM
LOW PREDICTABILITY MESOSCALE ONES SUCH AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG
THE RETREATING WARM FRONT-- SUGGEST ASSOCIATED FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO MAINTAIN A PROLONGED/SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF THUNDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR SUCH OCCURRENCE AT A GIVEN POINT/TAF SITE.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD...THOUGH STILL WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
OCCURRENCE/LOCATION/TIMING GIVEN A CONTINUED ABSENCE OF ANY TRIGGERS
APPARENT AT THIS TIME RANGE.

OUTLOOK: A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COAST...WITH ASSOCIATED PERIODS OF RAIN AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC...LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. A POLAR
VORTEX WILL MEANWHILE MIGRATE FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH RESULTANT
ENHANCED AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/STORMS...AS DIURNAL
HEATING OCCURS BENEATH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ATTENDING THE
VORTEX.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010640
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY...AHEAD OF SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...

LATEST SURFACE MAPS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE SNAKING FROM SW
NC ACROSS THE NC/SC BORDER... DENOTED BY A GRADIENT IN THETA-E AND
MLCAPE. SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER
THE SW PIEDMONT THIS EVENING... FED BY STRENGTHENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT COUPLED WITH INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE... GENERATING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND SOME SMALL HAIL... WITH AREAS SOUTH AND WEST
OF CLT SEEING THE WORST OF IT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. RAIN AND
ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE REST OF THE WRN PIEDMONT
INCLUDING THE TRIAD... FOLLOWING THE TREND OF INCREASING MOISTURE
AND IMPROVING DYNAMICS NEAR THE NORTHEAST-RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE...
AND HAVE MAINTAINED (WITH MINOR CHANGES IN COVERAGE AND ORIENTATION)
A TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH PW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO
SURGE FURTHER OVERNIGHT... AND WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE GROWING OVER
WRN/CENTRAL NC AND STRENGTHENING 850 MB WINDS... WILL BEEF UP QPF
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SOME MODERATE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. INCREASING
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SPEED UP CELL MOVEMENT WHICH WOULD HELP LIMIT THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT... ALTHOUGH SOME TRAINING OF CELLS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE... ELEVATING RAIN TOTALS LOCALLY. HAVE HELD ONTO LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NE TO MID 60S SW. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...

SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD AND EXITING THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF CENTRAL NC EARLY SUNDAY. SWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ADVECT A WARM MOIST AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL NC. WHILE EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH
BREAK MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY TO ALLOW THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE STRONG OR SEVERE AS BULK EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR INCREASES LATE IN
THE DAY TO 35-40KTS (AID TO ORGANIZE CELLS INTO BROKEN BANDS)...AND
SBCAPE TOPS OUT AROUND 2000J/KG. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON WHEN/IF BREAKS DEVELOP IN
THE LOW OVERCAST AND DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. SEE LITTLE
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MID/UPPER 70S NORTH HALF
TO 80/LOWER 80S SOUTH. MN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM SATURDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND THUS CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE EAST...THEN MORE CONFINED TOWARD THE
COAST ON TUESDAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN A DRYING
REGIME BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL
QUICKLY APPROACH ON THURSDAY AS A LARGE CLOSED MID-UPR LOW DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THUS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK DURING THAT TIME.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR
AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION. RIGHT NOW...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS ONLY A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT THIS MAY FEEL NOTABLY COOLER THAN
USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO WORTH NOTING THE H5 TEMPS CRASH
EARLY FRIDAY AND REMAIN NOTABLY COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...SO RESULTING
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED IN COVERAGE.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM SUNDAY...

INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW JUST ABOVE A RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE
LAYER OF AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN THE EXPANSION AND
LOWERING OF IFR-MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL
RETREAT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS MORNING-MIDDAY AT FAY AND
MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE...WITH AN ASSOCIATED EROSION/
SCATTERING/LIFTING OF THE PRECEDING LOW CLOUDS...AND A SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM AND BREEZY SW WIND. HOWEVER...THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION/PASSAGE OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE SAME TIME
FRAME MAY TEMPORARILY SLOW THOSE PROCESSES AND THE CONSEQUENT RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS.

WHILE THE AIR MASS WILL CONSEQUENTLY DESTABILIZE AND BE RIPE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE ABSENCE
OF ANY NOTABLE TRIGGER BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT --ASIDE FROM
LOW PREDICTABILITY MESOSCALE ONES SUCH AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG
THE RETREATING WARM FRONT-- SUGGEST ASSOCIATED FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO MAINTAIN A PROLONGED/SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF THUNDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR SUCH OCCURRENCE AT A GIVEN POINT/TAF SITE.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD...THOUGH STILL WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
OCCURRENCE/LOCATION/TIMING GIVEN A CONTINUED ABSENCE OF ANY TRIGGERS
APPARENT AT THIS TIME RANGE.

OUTLOOK: A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COAST...WITH ASSOCIATED PERIODS OF RAIN AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC...LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. A POLAR
VORTEX WILL MEANWHILE MIGRATE FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH RESULTANT
ENHANCED AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/STORMS...AS DIURNAL
HEATING OCCURS BENEATH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ATTENDING THE
VORTEX.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010640
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY...AHEAD OF SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...

LATEST SURFACE MAPS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE SNAKING FROM SW
NC ACROSS THE NC/SC BORDER... DENOTED BY A GRADIENT IN THETA-E AND
MLCAPE. SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER
THE SW PIEDMONT THIS EVENING... FED BY STRENGTHENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT COUPLED WITH INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE... GENERATING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND SOME SMALL HAIL... WITH AREAS SOUTH AND WEST
OF CLT SEEING THE WORST OF IT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. RAIN AND
ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE REST OF THE WRN PIEDMONT
INCLUDING THE TRIAD... FOLLOWING THE TREND OF INCREASING MOISTURE
AND IMPROVING DYNAMICS NEAR THE NORTHEAST-RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE...
AND HAVE MAINTAINED (WITH MINOR CHANGES IN COVERAGE AND ORIENTATION)
A TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH PW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO
SURGE FURTHER OVERNIGHT... AND WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE GROWING OVER
WRN/CENTRAL NC AND STRENGTHENING 850 MB WINDS... WILL BEEF UP QPF
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SOME MODERATE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. INCREASING
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SPEED UP CELL MOVEMENT WHICH WOULD HELP LIMIT THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT... ALTHOUGH SOME TRAINING OF CELLS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE... ELEVATING RAIN TOTALS LOCALLY. HAVE HELD ONTO LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NE TO MID 60S SW. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...

SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD AND EXITING THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF CENTRAL NC EARLY SUNDAY. SWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ADVECT A WARM MOIST AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL NC. WHILE EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH
BREAK MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY TO ALLOW THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE STRONG OR SEVERE AS BULK EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR INCREASES LATE IN
THE DAY TO 35-40KTS (AID TO ORGANIZE CELLS INTO BROKEN BANDS)...AND
SBCAPE TOPS OUT AROUND 2000J/KG. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON WHEN/IF BREAKS DEVELOP IN
THE LOW OVERCAST AND DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. SEE LITTLE
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MID/UPPER 70S NORTH HALF
TO 80/LOWER 80S SOUTH. MN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM SATURDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND THUS CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE EAST...THEN MORE CONFINED TOWARD THE
COAST ON TUESDAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN A DRYING
REGIME BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL
QUICKLY APPROACH ON THURSDAY AS A LARGE CLOSED MID-UPR LOW DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THUS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK DURING THAT TIME.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR
AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION. RIGHT NOW...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS ONLY A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT THIS MAY FEEL NOTABLY COOLER THAN
USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO WORTH NOTING THE H5 TEMPS CRASH
EARLY FRIDAY AND REMAIN NOTABLY COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...SO RESULTING
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED IN COVERAGE.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM SUNDAY...

INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW JUST ABOVE A RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE
LAYER OF AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN THE EXPANSION AND
LOWERING OF IFR-MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL
RETREAT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS MORNING-MIDDAY AT FAY AND
MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE...WITH AN ASSOCIATED EROSION/
SCATTERING/LIFTING OF THE PRECEDING LOW CLOUDS...AND A SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM AND BREEZY SW WIND. HOWEVER...THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION/PASSAGE OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE SAME TIME
FRAME MAY TEMPORARILY SLOW THOSE PROCESSES AND THE CONSEQUENT RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS.

WHILE THE AIR MASS WILL CONSEQUENTLY DESTABILIZE AND BE RIPE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE ABSENCE
OF ANY NOTABLE TRIGGER BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT --ASIDE FROM
LOW PREDICTABILITY MESOSCALE ONES SUCH AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG
THE RETREATING WARM FRONT-- SUGGEST ASSOCIATED FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO MAINTAIN A PROLONGED/SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF THUNDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR SUCH OCCURRENCE AT A GIVEN POINT/TAF SITE.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...SO A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE 24-HR TAF PERIOD...THOUGH STILL WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
OCCURRENCE/LOCATION/TIMING GIVEN A CONTINUED ABSENCE OF ANY TRIGGERS
APPARENT AT THIS TIME RANGE.

OUTLOOK: A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES COAST...WITH ASSOCIATED PERIODS OF RAIN AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC...LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. A POLAR
VORTEX WILL MEANWHILE MIGRATE FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE TO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH RESULTANT
ENHANCED AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/STORMS...AS DIURNAL
HEATING OCCURS BENEATH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ATTENDING THE
VORTEX.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010207
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER
WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT... LEADING TO A
WARM AND HUMID FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL STALL OUT OVER
THE APPALACHIANS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... BRINGING WET AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...

LATEST SURFACE MAPS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE SNAKING FROM SW
NC ACROSS THE NC/SC BORDER... DENOTED BY A GRADIENT IN THETA-E AND
MLCAPE. SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER
THE SW PIEDMONT THIS EVENING... FED BY STRENGTHENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT COUPLED WITH INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE... GENERATING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND SOME SMALL HAIL... WITH AREAS SOUTH AND WEST
OF CLT SEEING THE WORST OF IT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. RAIN AND
ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE REST OF THE WRN PIEDMONT
INCLUDING THE TRIAD... FOLLOWING THE TREND OF INCREASING MOISTURE
AND IMPROVING DYNAMICS NEAR THE NORTHEAST-RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE...
AND HAVE MAINTAINED (WITH MINOR CHANGES IN COVERAGE AND ORIENTATION)
A TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH PW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO
SURGE FURTHER OVERNIGHT... AND WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE GROWING OVER
WRN/CENTRAL NC AND STRENGTHENING 850 MB WINDS... WILL BEEF UP QPF
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SOME MODERATE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. INCREASING
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SPEED UP CELL MOVEMENT WHICH WOULD HELP LIMIT THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT... ALTHOUGH SOME TRAINING OF CELLS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE... ELEVATING RAIN TOTALS LOCALLY. HAVE HELD ONTO LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NE TO MID 60S SW. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...

SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD AND EXITING THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF CENTRAL NC EARLY SUNDAY. SWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ADVECT A WARM MOIST AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL NC. WHILE EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH
BREAK MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY TO ALLOW THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE STRONG OR SEVERE AS BULK EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR INCREASES LATE IN
THE DAY TO 35-40KTS (AID TO ORGANIZE CELLS INTO BROKEN BANDS)...AND
SBCAPE TOPS OUT AROUND 2000J/KG. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON WHEN/IF BREAKS DEVELOP IN
THE LOW OVERCAST AND DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. SEE LITTLE
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MID/UPPER 70S NORTH HALF
TO 80/LOWER 80S SOUTH. MN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM SATURDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND THUS CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE EAST...THEN MORE CONFINED TOWARD THE
COAST ON TUESDAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN A DRYING
REGIME BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL
QUICKLY APPROACH ON THURSDAY AS A LARGE CLOSED MID-UPR LOW DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THUS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK DURING THAT TIME.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR
AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION. RIGHT NOW...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS ONLY A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT THIS MAY FEEL NOTABLY COOLER THAN
USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO WORTH NOTING THE H5 TEMPS CRASH
EARLY FRIDAY AND REMAIN NOTABLY COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...SO RESULTING
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED IN COVERAGE.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM SATURDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY SOME POTENTIAL TO BREAK UP
BACK TO VFR AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS TO BE THE
PRIMARY PROBLEM FOR FLIGHT RULES WITH SOME POCKETS OF LOW
VISIBILITIES AS WELL. MOST SITES SHOULD REMAIN IFR/LIFT AFTER
CEILINGS DROP BELOW THE IFR THRESHOLD UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...PUTTING
CENTRAL NC BACK IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THUNDER A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING MANY CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010207
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER
WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT... LEADING TO A
WARM AND HUMID FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL STALL OUT OVER
THE APPALACHIANS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... BRINGING WET AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...

LATEST SURFACE MAPS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE SNAKING FROM SW
NC ACROSS THE NC/SC BORDER... DENOTED BY A GRADIENT IN THETA-E AND
MLCAPE. SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER
THE SW PIEDMONT THIS EVENING... FED BY STRENGTHENING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT COUPLED WITH INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE... GENERATING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND SOME SMALL HAIL... WITH AREAS SOUTH AND WEST
OF CLT SEEING THE WORST OF IT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. RAIN AND
ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE REST OF THE WRN PIEDMONT
INCLUDING THE TRIAD... FOLLOWING THE TREND OF INCREASING MOISTURE
AND IMPROVING DYNAMICS NEAR THE NORTHEAST-RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE...
AND HAVE MAINTAINED (WITH MINOR CHANGES IN COVERAGE AND ORIENTATION)
A TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WITH PW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO
SURGE FURTHER OVERNIGHT... AND WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE GROWING OVER
WRN/CENTRAL NC AND STRENGTHENING 850 MB WINDS... WILL BEEF UP QPF
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SOME MODERATE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. INCREASING
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SPEED UP CELL MOVEMENT WHICH WOULD HELP LIMIT THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT... ALTHOUGH SOME TRAINING OF CELLS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE... ELEVATING RAIN TOTALS LOCALLY. HAVE HELD ONTO LOWS IN
THE MID 50S NE TO MID 60S SW. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...

SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD AND EXITING THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF CENTRAL NC EARLY SUNDAY. SWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ADVECT A WARM MOIST AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL NC. WHILE EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH
BREAK MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY TO ALLOW THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE STRONG OR SEVERE AS BULK EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR INCREASES LATE IN
THE DAY TO 35-40KTS (AID TO ORGANIZE CELLS INTO BROKEN BANDS)...AND
SBCAPE TOPS OUT AROUND 2000J/KG. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON WHEN/IF BREAKS DEVELOP IN
THE LOW OVERCAST AND DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. SEE LITTLE
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MID/UPPER 70S NORTH HALF
TO 80/LOWER 80S SOUTH. MN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM SATURDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND THUS CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE EAST...THEN MORE CONFINED TOWARD THE
COAST ON TUESDAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN A DRYING
REGIME BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL
QUICKLY APPROACH ON THURSDAY AS A LARGE CLOSED MID-UPR LOW DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THUS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK DURING THAT TIME.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR
AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION. RIGHT NOW...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS ONLY A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT THIS MAY FEEL NOTABLY COOLER THAN
USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO WORTH NOTING THE H5 TEMPS CRASH
EARLY FRIDAY AND REMAIN NOTABLY COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...SO RESULTING
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED IN COVERAGE.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM SATURDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY SOME POTENTIAL TO BREAK UP
BACK TO VFR AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS TO BE THE
PRIMARY PROBLEM FOR FLIGHT RULES WITH SOME POCKETS OF LOW
VISIBILITIES AS WELL. MOST SITES SHOULD REMAIN IFR/LIFT AFTER
CEILINGS DROP BELOW THE IFR THRESHOLD UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...PUTTING
CENTRAL NC BACK IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THUNDER A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING MANY CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 302353
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
753 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARM
AND SLIGHTLY HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...

SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH S/W RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS TRAPPING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND MAINTAINING A LOW DECK OF STRATUS ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL NC AT MID AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR SOUTHERN-SW
COUNTIES WHERE PARTIAL BREAKS ARE OCCURRING (AS PER VISIBLE
IMAGERY). THIS PARTIAL SUN HAS AIDED TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID
70S. OTHERWISE TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

BULK OF CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SW COUNTIES WHERE MODEST
INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM.

BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS THE STALLED SFC FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NWD AS A WARM
FRONT. NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO
OUR WESTERN-NW COUNTIES. THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL PREVAIL WHILE SFC WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER FROM AN ELY TO A SOUTH-SELY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S SOUTH TO THE MID/UPPER
50S NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...

SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD AND EXITING THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF CENTRAL NC EARLY SUNDAY. SWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ADVECT A WARM MOIST AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL NC. WHILE EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH
BREAK MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY TO ALLOW THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE STRONG OR SEVERE AS BULK EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR INCREASES LATE IN
THE DAY TO 35-40KTS (AID TO ORGANIZE CELLS INTO BROKEN BANDS)...AND
SBCAPE TOPS OUT AROUND 2000J/KG. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON WHEN/IF BREAKS DEVELOP IN
THE LOW OVERCAST AND DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. SEE LITTLE
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MID/UPPER 70S NORTH HALF
TO 80/LOWER 80S SOUTH. MN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM SATURDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND THUS CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE EAST...THEN MORE CONFINED TOWARD THE
COAST ON TUESDAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN A DRYING
REGIME BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL
QUICKLY APPROACH ON THURSDAY AS A LARGE CLOSED MID-UPR LOW DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THUS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK DURING THAT TIME.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR
AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION. RIGHT NOW...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS ONLY A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT THIS MAY FEEL NOTABLY COOLER THAN
USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO WORTH NOTING THE H5 TEMPS CRASH
EARLY FRIDAY AND REMAIN NOTABLY COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...SO RESULTING
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED IN COVERAGE.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM SATURDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY AND THEN POSSIBLY SOME POTENTIAL TO BREAK UP
BACK TO VFR AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CEILINGS TO BE THE
PRIMARY PROBLEM FOR FLIGHT RULES WITH SOME POCKETS OF LOW
VISIBILITIES AS WELL. MOST SITES SHOULD REMAIN IFR/LIFT AFTER
CEILINGS DROP BELOW THE IFR THRESHOLD UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...PUTTING
CENTRAL NC BACK IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THUNDER A POSSIBILITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL ZONE STALLS OUT OVER THE AREA
PRODUCING MANY CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 301926
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARM
AND SLIGHTLY HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...

SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH S/W RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS TRAPPING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND MAINTAINING A LOW DECK OF STRATUS ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL NC AT MID AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR SOUTHERN-SW
COUNTIES WHERE PARTIAL BREAKS ARE OCCURRING (AS PER VISIBLE
IMAGERY). THIS PARTIAL SUN HAS AIDED TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID
70S. OTHERWISE TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

BULK OF CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SW COUNTIES WHERE MODEST
INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM.

BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS THE STALLED SFC FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NWD AS A WARM
FRONT. NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO
OUR WESTERN-NW COUNTIES. THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL PREVAIL WHILE SFC WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER FROM AN ELY TO A SOUTH-SELY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S SOUTH TO THE MID/UPPER
50S NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...

SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD AND EXITING THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF CENTRAL NC EARLY SUNDAY. SWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ADVECT A WARM MOIST AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL NC. WHILE EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH
BREAK MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY TO ALLOW THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE STRONG OR SEVERE AS BULK EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR INCREASES LATE IN
THE DAY TO 35-40KTS (AID TO ORGANIZE CELLS INTO BROKEN BANDS)...AND
SBCAPE TOPS OUT AROUND 2000J/KG. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON WHEN/IF BREAKS DEVELOP IN
THE LOW OVERCAST AND DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. SEE LITTLE
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MID/UPPER 70S NORTH HALF
TO 80/LOWER 80S SOUTH. MN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM SATURDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND STALLS JUST OFF THE COAST BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND THUS CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE EAST...THEN MORE CONFINED TOWARD THE
COAST ON TUESDAY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.  A
BREAK IN THE WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN A DRYING
REGIME BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL
QUICKLY APPROACH ON THURSDAY AS A LARGE CLOSED MID-UPR LOW DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THUS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK DURING THAT TIME.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER OUR
AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MEANDERS ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION. RIGHT NOW...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS ONLY A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT THIS MAY FEEL NOTABLY COOLER THAN
USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALSO WORTH NOTING THE H5 TEMPS CRASH
EARLY FRIDAY AND REMAIN NOTABLY COOL THROUGH SATURDAY...SO RESULTING
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED IN COVERAGE.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM SATURDAY...

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z
WITH POCKETS OF IFR CEILINGS PROBABLE IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD
TERMINALS. NOW APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO OUR FAR WESTERN-SW COUNTIES. A STRAY SHOWER MAY SKIRT
CLOSE TO KINT BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER LATER TONIGHT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS. ANY AREAS OF RAIN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN-NW
PIEDMONT THOUGH NOW APPEARS THAT PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NWD ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL VEER QUICKLY FROM AN EAST-SE DIRECTION AT
THE SFC TO A SSW FLOW A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE. THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL REACH SPEEDS OF 30-35KTS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING
40KTS IN VICINITY OF KINT/KGSO AFTER 09Z. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF LLWS IN THE TAF.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS PROBABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE TO THE LOW END OF VFR PARAMETERS. AFTERNOON HEATING OF THE
MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS. IT IS HIGHLY PROBABLE THAT
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR PARAMETERS WILL OCCUR DUE TO CEILINGS...IN
ADDITION TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 301922
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WILL LIFT NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARM
AND SLIGHTLY HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...

SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH S/W RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS TRAPPING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND MAINTAINING A LOW DECK OF STRATUS ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL NC AT MID AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR SOUTHERN-SW
COUNTIES WHERE PARTIAL BREAKS ARE OCCURRING (AS PER VISIBLE
IMAGERY). THIS PARTIAL SUN HAS AIDED TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE MID
70S. OTHERWISE TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

BULK OF CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SW COUNTIES WHERE MODEST
INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A STALLED SFC BOUNDARY WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM.

BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS THE STALLED SFC FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NWD AS A WARM
FRONT. NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO
OUR WESTERN-NW COUNTIES. THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL PREVAIL WHILE SFC WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER FROM AN ELY TO A SOUTH-SELY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 60S SOUTH TO THE MID/UPPER
50S NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...

SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD AND EXITING THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
OF CENTRAL NC EARLY SUNDAY. SWLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL ADVECT A WARM MOIST AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL NC. WHILE EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH
BREAK MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY TO ALLOW THE LOWER HALF OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE STRONG OR SEVERE AS BULK EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR INCREASES LATE IN
THE DAY TO 35-40KTS (AID TO ORGANIZE CELLS INTO BROKEN BANDS)...AND
SBCAPE TOPS OUT AROUND 2000J/KG. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
THOUGH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

MAX TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON WHEN/IF BREAKS DEVELOP IN
THE LOW OVERCAST AND DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION. SEE LITTLE
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MID/UPPER 70S NORTH HALF
TO 80/LOWER 80S SOUTH. MN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT LOW-MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM SATURDAY...

DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY.  MID-LEVEL DRYING AND STRONGER BL MIXING WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/WESTERN PIEDMONT...FOCUSING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AN COASTAL PLAIN.
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY...OFFERING A BETTER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
SETTLES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN FALLS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US AND SHORTWAVES DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA RESULT INTO A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US.
THE EVENTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH IS UNCERTAIN...BUT THE EC
ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS 2-3 STD BELOW NORMAL OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS SETTLES AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SURFACE LOW LIKELY TO DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY THURSDAY...AND DAILY HIGHS AT LEAST A COUPLE
CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL...IF NOT MORE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM SATURDAY...

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z
WITH POCKETS OF IFR CEILINGS PROBABLE IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD
TERMINALS. NOW APPEARS THAT ANY SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO OUR FAR WESTERN-SW COUNTIES. A STRAY SHOWER MAY SKIRT
CLOSE TO KINT BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER LATER TONIGHT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS. ANY AREAS OF RAIN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN-NW
PIEDMONT THOUGH NOW APPEARS THAT PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL DRIFT NWD ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL VEER QUICKLY FROM AN EAST-SE DIRECTION AT
THE SFC TO A SSW FLOW A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE. THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL REACH SPEEDS OF 30-35KTS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING
40KTS IN VICINITY OF KINT/KGSO AFTER 09Z. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF LLWS IN THE TAF.

BREEZY SW SFC WINDS PROBABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE TO THE LOW END OF VFR PARAMETERS. AFTERNOON HEATING OF THE
MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN VARIABLE AVIATION CONDITIONS. IT IS HIGHLY PROBABLE THAT
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR PARAMETERS WILL OCCUR DUE TO CEILINGS...IN
ADDITION TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...WSS





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