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000
FXUS62 KRAH 271734
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1245 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A CLIPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO
OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 1047 AM TUESDAY...

RADAR...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS... AND REPORTS FROM AROUND THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE NE PIEDMONT... (FROM TARBORO AND HALIFAX TO
NEAR RDU)... INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES CONTINUE
FROM TIME TO TIME. OTHER THAN THE DUSTING UP TO NEARLY AN INCH
REPORTS FROM AROUND HENDERSON AND WARRENTON TO A DUSTING AT
LOUISBURG AND ROCKY MOUNT AROUND SUNRISE... THERE HAVE BEEN NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS REPORTED. THE GROUND IS WARM ENOUGH TO
ALLOW MELTING OF MUCH OF WHAT SNOW EARLIER FELL IN THE NE. ROADS AND
STREETS WERE JUST WET OR DRYING NOW.

A COUPLE OF NW TO SE ORIENTED BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES CONTINUE
TO AFFECT AREAS FROM LAKE GASTON AND ROANOKE RAPIDS TO NEAR TARBORO
(10-20 DBZ RETURNS)... AND EVEN LIGHTER REFLECTIVELY RETURNS (5-10
DBZ) INDICATE A FEW FLURRIES FROM HENDERSON TO NEAR GOLDSBORO. IT IS
IN THE 10-20DBZ RETURNS IN WHICH WE HAVE REPORTS OF 3-6 MILE
VISIBILITIES WITH THE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES... ESPECIALLY IN THE
BAND NOW POSITIONED NW TO SE ALONG THE ROANOKE RIVER. THE OTHER BAND
WITH WEAKER RETURNS FROM LOUISBURG TO WILSON AND GOLDSBORO IS WHERE
THERE ARE A FEW FLURRIES NOTED.

DRIER AIR CONTINUED TO WORK IN FROM WESTERN VA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC
LATE MORNING. AREAS FROM ROANOKE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE TRIAD TO
DANVILLE WERE MOSTLY SUNNY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLOW PROCESS
THIS AFTERNOON... BUT THE DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT. EXPECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO PERSIST A FEW MORE
HOURS BEFORE THE SUPPORT FINALLY ALLOWS DISSIPATION AND MOVEMENT
EAST WITH TIME.

THIS WILL LEAD TO SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN ALL BUT THE FAR NE WHERE CLEARING SHOULD ENSUE THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE... WE DROPPED HIGHS BACK A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE
CAA... AND THE LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOME AREAS. HIGHS 38 NORTH AND
NORTHEAST TO 45 AROUND LAURINBURG AND FAYETTEVILLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

EXPECT DRYING TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES BUT WINDS
REMAINING 5-10 KTS SO NOT EXACTLY GREAT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT
TEMPS WILL STILL MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S WITH THE CHANGE
IN AIRMASS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS
CENTRAL NC IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE EXITING BLIZZARD TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A LITTLE BUT STILL A GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID
40S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS 5-
10 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH VEERING TO NORTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP IN THE TRIAD. GENERALLY MID
20S BUT POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 20S IN OUR EASTERN NORMALLY COLD
ZONES.THU/THU NIGHT: THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE
THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC STATES... TRACKING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE POLAR LOW OVER HUDSON BAY... WHILE ITS
CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE OH VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC
COAST. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SSE WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST RECOVERY IN THICKNESSES... BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL... AND THE TEMP RISE WILL BE HINDERED BY THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS WITH APPROACHING WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA AND LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE. BUT MODELS STILL SHOW PW VALUES JUST BARELY REACHING
ABOVE NORMAL... AND GFS/NAM BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER BELOW 850 MB THROUGH THU. MODEL QPF IS ALSO SCANT
WITH THE GFS/NAM/SREF MEAN STAYING DRY OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THU
NIGHT. AFTER 00Z THE COLUMN STARTS TO DRY OUT ALOFT BEHIND THE 700
MB TROUGH... AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO SWEEP EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL TRIM BACK
EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT... FOCUSING THEM LATE THU
AFTERNOON UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT... HOWEVER AM RELUCTANT TO
REMOVE THEM ENTIRELY AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP
LATE THU AFTERNOON AND THU EVENING. EXPECT HIGHS THU IN THE MID 40S
TO AROUND 50. LOWS THU NIGHT 32-38.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

FRI-SAT: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SWINGING TO OUR EAST FRI
MORNING WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE NC COAST. NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY
CENTERED OVER NRN MINN DRIFTS SOUTHEAST... BUILDING INTO AND OVER
THE MIDATLANTIC THROUGH VA/ERN NC THROUGH SAT. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FRI/FRI NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH THIN CLOUDS
SAT AS WE START TO SEE INITIAL ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE DESERT SW
LOW TRACK EASTWARD WITHIN CONFLUENT NW MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES FRI... EXPECT BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE MID 20S... THEN WITH SUCH A CHILLY START
AND THE CANADIAN-SOURCE AIR MASS BUILDING IN YIELDING THICKNESSES AT
LEAST 30 M BELOW NORMAL... HIGHS SAT SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 40-45
RANGE.

SAT NGT-MON: A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS PERSISTS THIS
MORNING... HOWEVER IT`S LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WE`RE ENTERING INTO
A PERIOD OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DOMINATED BY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
BUT WITH POTENTIAL INJECTIONS OF COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHERN
STREAM. A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM MT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MERGE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EMANATING FROM
THE LOW OVER NRN MEX SAT NIGHT/SUN... BRINGING MID LEVEL DPVA INTO
NC SUN/SUN NIGHT. THE SHIFTING OF THE SURFACE HIGH ESE OFF THE COAST
WILL ALLOW A MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF INTO THE GULF/MIDSOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST STATES... AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE NW GULF COAST AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD
NC. THE GFS/ECMWF BRING PRECIP INTO WRN NC BY MIDDAY SUN... THEN
SPREAD IT EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MILLER TYPE-B CYCLOGENESIS
PATTERN BUT WITH VARIED LOW PLACEMENT... WITH THE ECMWF DEPICTING A
FURTHER-SOUTH TRIPLE POINT LOW TRACK VERSUS THE GFS. THE LATEST RUNS
SHOWS SUFFICIENTLY WARM LOW- AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES TO SUPPORT AN
ALL-RAIN EVENT... BUT GIVEN THIS PATTERN... WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL
TRENDS CAREFULLY IN THE COMING DAYS. WITH OTHERWISE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN... WILL BUMP UP
POPS... FOCUSING THE HIGHER CHANCES SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN
NIGHT... TAPERING DOWN WEST-TO-EAST MON MORNING AS THE DAMPENING MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER THE MIDATLANTIC/ NORTHEAST
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH NC. EXPECT IMPROVING WEATHER
LATE MON WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST
BUILDING INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH SUN
NIGHT... WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR HIGHS ON MON AS MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON WHETHER OR NOT WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR NOW BUT IF MODEL WARMING
TRENDS HOLD... MAY NEED TO BUMP UP MON HIGHS QUITE A BIT IN LATER
FORECASTS. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CIGS...
THEN CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NE ZONES (KRDU-KRWI) THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EVEN WITH THE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
THERE MAY BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR MVFR CIGS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BADGETT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 271734
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1245 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A CLIPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO
OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 1047 AM TUESDAY...

RADAR...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS... AND REPORTS FROM AROUND THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE NE PIEDMONT... (FROM TARBORO AND HALIFAX TO
NEAR RDU)... INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES CONTINUE
FROM TIME TO TIME. OTHER THAN THE DUSTING UP TO NEARLY AN INCH
REPORTS FROM AROUND HENDERSON AND WARRENTON TO A DUSTING AT
LOUISBURG AND ROCKY MOUNT AROUND SUNRISE... THERE HAVE BEEN NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS REPORTED. THE GROUND IS WARM ENOUGH TO
ALLOW MELTING OF MUCH OF WHAT SNOW EARLIER FELL IN THE NE. ROADS AND
STREETS WERE JUST WET OR DRYING NOW.

A COUPLE OF NW TO SE ORIENTED BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES CONTINUE
TO AFFECT AREAS FROM LAKE GASTON AND ROANOKE RAPIDS TO NEAR TARBORO
(10-20 DBZ RETURNS)... AND EVEN LIGHTER REFLECTIVELY RETURNS (5-10
DBZ) INDICATE A FEW FLURRIES FROM HENDERSON TO NEAR GOLDSBORO. IT IS
IN THE 10-20DBZ RETURNS IN WHICH WE HAVE REPORTS OF 3-6 MILE
VISIBILITIES WITH THE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES... ESPECIALLY IN THE
BAND NOW POSITIONED NW TO SE ALONG THE ROANOKE RIVER. THE OTHER BAND
WITH WEAKER RETURNS FROM LOUISBURG TO WILSON AND GOLDSBORO IS WHERE
THERE ARE A FEW FLURRIES NOTED.

DRIER AIR CONTINUED TO WORK IN FROM WESTERN VA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC
LATE MORNING. AREAS FROM ROANOKE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE TRIAD TO
DANVILLE WERE MOSTLY SUNNY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLOW PROCESS
THIS AFTERNOON... BUT THE DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT. EXPECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO PERSIST A FEW MORE
HOURS BEFORE THE SUPPORT FINALLY ALLOWS DISSIPATION AND MOVEMENT
EAST WITH TIME.

THIS WILL LEAD TO SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN ALL BUT THE FAR NE WHERE CLEARING SHOULD ENSUE THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE... WE DROPPED HIGHS BACK A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE
CAA... AND THE LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOME AREAS. HIGHS 38 NORTH AND
NORTHEAST TO 45 AROUND LAURINBURG AND FAYETTEVILLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

EXPECT DRYING TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES BUT WINDS
REMAINING 5-10 KTS SO NOT EXACTLY GREAT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT
TEMPS WILL STILL MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S WITH THE CHANGE
IN AIRMASS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS
CENTRAL NC IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE EXITING BLIZZARD TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A LITTLE BUT STILL A GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID
40S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS 5-
10 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH VEERING TO NORTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP IN THE TRIAD. GENERALLY MID
20S BUT POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 20S IN OUR EASTERN NORMALLY COLD
ZONES.THU/THU NIGHT: THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE
THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC STATES... TRACKING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE POLAR LOW OVER HUDSON BAY... WHILE ITS
CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE OH VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC
COAST. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SSE WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST RECOVERY IN THICKNESSES... BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL... AND THE TEMP RISE WILL BE HINDERED BY THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS WITH APPROACHING WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA AND LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE. BUT MODELS STILL SHOW PW VALUES JUST BARELY REACHING
ABOVE NORMAL... AND GFS/NAM BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER BELOW 850 MB THROUGH THU. MODEL QPF IS ALSO SCANT
WITH THE GFS/NAM/SREF MEAN STAYING DRY OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THU
NIGHT. AFTER 00Z THE COLUMN STARTS TO DRY OUT ALOFT BEHIND THE 700
MB TROUGH... AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO SWEEP EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL TRIM BACK
EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT... FOCUSING THEM LATE THU
AFTERNOON UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT... HOWEVER AM RELUCTANT TO
REMOVE THEM ENTIRELY AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP
LATE THU AFTERNOON AND THU EVENING. EXPECT HIGHS THU IN THE MID 40S
TO AROUND 50. LOWS THU NIGHT 32-38.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

FRI-SAT: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SWINGING TO OUR EAST FRI
MORNING WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE NC COAST. NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY
CENTERED OVER NRN MINN DRIFTS SOUTHEAST... BUILDING INTO AND OVER
THE MIDATLANTIC THROUGH VA/ERN NC THROUGH SAT. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FRI/FRI NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH THIN CLOUDS
SAT AS WE START TO SEE INITIAL ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE DESERT SW
LOW TRACK EASTWARD WITHIN CONFLUENT NW MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES FRI... EXPECT BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE MID 20S... THEN WITH SUCH A CHILLY START
AND THE CANADIAN-SOURCE AIR MASS BUILDING IN YIELDING THICKNESSES AT
LEAST 30 M BELOW NORMAL... HIGHS SAT SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 40-45
RANGE.

SAT NGT-MON: A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS PERSISTS THIS
MORNING... HOWEVER IT`S LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WE`RE ENTERING INTO
A PERIOD OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DOMINATED BY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
BUT WITH POTENTIAL INJECTIONS OF COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHERN
STREAM. A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM MT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MERGE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EMANATING FROM
THE LOW OVER NRN MEX SAT NIGHT/SUN... BRINGING MID LEVEL DPVA INTO
NC SUN/SUN NIGHT. THE SHIFTING OF THE SURFACE HIGH ESE OFF THE COAST
WILL ALLOW A MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF INTO THE GULF/MIDSOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST STATES... AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE NW GULF COAST AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD
NC. THE GFS/ECMWF BRING PRECIP INTO WRN NC BY MIDDAY SUN... THEN
SPREAD IT EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MILLER TYPE-B CYCLOGENESIS
PATTERN BUT WITH VARIED LOW PLACEMENT... WITH THE ECMWF DEPICTING A
FURTHER-SOUTH TRIPLE POINT LOW TRACK VERSUS THE GFS. THE LATEST RUNS
SHOWS SUFFICIENTLY WARM LOW- AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES TO SUPPORT AN
ALL-RAIN EVENT... BUT GIVEN THIS PATTERN... WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL
TRENDS CAREFULLY IN THE COMING DAYS. WITH OTHERWISE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN... WILL BUMP UP
POPS... FOCUSING THE HIGHER CHANCES SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN
NIGHT... TAPERING DOWN WEST-TO-EAST MON MORNING AS THE DAMPENING MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER THE MIDATLANTIC/ NORTHEAST
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH NC. EXPECT IMPROVING WEATHER
LATE MON WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST
BUILDING INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH SUN
NIGHT... WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR HIGHS ON MON AS MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON WHETHER OR NOT WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR NOW BUT IF MODEL WARMING
TRENDS HOLD... MAY NEED TO BUMP UP MON HIGHS QUITE A BIT IN LATER
FORECASTS. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CIGS...
THEN CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NE ZONES (KRDU-KRWI) THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EVEN WITH THE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
THERE MAY BE A LIGHT SHOWER OR MVFR CIGS AT THAT TIME.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 271603
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1047 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A CLIPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO
OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 1047 AM TUESDAY...

RADAR...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS... AND REPORTS FROM AROUND THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE NE PIEDMONT... (FROM TARBORO AND HALIFAX TO
NEAR RDU)... INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES CONTINUE
FROM TIME TO TIME. OTHER THAN THE DUSTING UP TO NEARLY AN INCH
REPORTS FROM AROUND HENDERSON AND WARRENTON TO A DUSTING AT
LOUISBURG AND ROCKY MOUNT AROUND SUNRISE... THERE HAVE BEEN NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS REPORTED. THE GROUND IS WARM ENOUGH TO
ALLOW MELTING OF MUCH OF WHAT SNOW EARLIER FELL IN THE NE. ROADS AND
STREETS WERE JUST WET OR DRYING NOW.

A COUPLE OF NW TO SE ORIENTED BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES CONTINUE
TO AFFECT AREAS FROM LAKE GASTON AND ROANOKE RAPIDS TO NEAR TARBORO
(10-20 DBZ RETURNS)... AND EVEN LIGHTER REFLECTIVELY RETURNS (5-10
DBZ) INDICATE A FEW FLURRIES FROM HENDERSON TO NEAR GOLDSBORO. IT IS
IN THE 10-20DBZ RETURNS IN WHICH WE HAVE REPORTS OF 3-6 MILE
VISIBILITIES WITH THE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES... ESPECIALLY IN THE
BAND NOW POSITIONED NW TO SE ALONG THE ROANOKE RIVER. THE OTHER BAND
WITH WEAKER RETURNS FROM LOUISBURG TO WILSON AND GOLDSBORO IS WHERE
THERE ARE A FEW FLURRIES NOTED.

DRIER AIR CONTINUED TO WORK IN FROM WESTERN VA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC
LATE MORNING. AREAS FROM ROANOKE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE TRIAD TO
DANVILLE WERE MOSTLY SUNNY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLOW PROCESS
THIS AFTERNOON... BUT THE DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT. EXPECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO PERSIST A FEW MORE
HOURS BEFORE THE SUPPORT FINALLY ALLOWS DISSIPATION AND MOVEMENT
EAST WITH TIME.

THIS WILL LEAD TO SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN ALL BUT THE FAR NE WHERE CLEARING SHOULD ENSUE THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE... WE DROPPED HIGHS BACK A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE
CAA... AND THE LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOME AREAS. HIGHS 38 NORTH AND
NORTHEAST TO 45 AROUND LAURINBURG AND FAYETTEVILLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

EXPECT DRYING TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES BUT WINDS
REMAINING 5-10 KTS SO NOT EXACTLY GREAT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT
TEMPS WILL STILL MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S WITH THE CHANGE
IN AIRMASS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS
CENTRAL NC IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE EXITING BLIZZARD TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A LITTLE BUT STILL A GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID
40S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS 5-
10 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH VEERING TO NORTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP IN THE TRIAD. GENERALLY MID
20S BUT POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 20S IN OUR EASTERN NORMALLY COLD
ZONES.THU/THU NIGHT: THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE
THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC STATES... TRACKING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE POLAR LOW OVER HUDSON BAY... WHILE ITS
CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE OH VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC
COAST. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SSE WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST RECOVERY IN THICKNESSES... BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL... AND THE TEMP RISE WILL BE HINDERED BY THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS WITH APPROACHING WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA AND LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE. BUT MODELS STILL SHOW PW VALUES JUST BARELY REACHING
ABOVE NORMAL... AND GFS/NAM BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER BELOW 850 MB THROUGH THU. MODEL QPF IS ALSO SCANT
WITH THE GFS/NAM/SREF MEAN STAYING DRY OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THU
NIGHT. AFTER 00Z THE COLUMN STARTS TO DRY OUT ALOFT BEHIND THE 700
MB TROUGH... AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO SWEEP EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL TRIM BACK
EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT... FOCUSING THEM LATE THU
AFTERNOON UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT... HOWEVER AM RELUCTANT TO
REMOVE THEM ENTIRELY AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP
LATE THU AFTERNOON AND THU EVENING. EXPECT HIGHS THU IN THE MID 40S
TO AROUND 50. LOWS THU NIGHT 32-38.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

FRI-SAT: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SWINGING TO OUR EAST FRI
MORNING WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE NC COAST. NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY
CENTERED OVER NRN MINN DRIFTS SOUTHEAST... BUILDING INTO AND OVER
THE MIDATLANTIC THROUGH VA/ERN NC THROUGH SAT. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FRI/FRI NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH THIN CLOUDS
SAT AS WE START TO SEE INITIAL ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE DESERT SW
LOW TRACK EASTWARD WITHIN CONFLUENT NW MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES FRI... EXPECT BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE MID 20S... THEN WITH SUCH A CHILLY START
AND THE CANADIAN-SOURCE AIR MASS BUILDING IN YIELDING THICKNESSES AT
LEAST 30 M BELOW NORMAL... HIGHS SAT SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 40-45
RANGE.

SAT NGT-MON: A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS PERSISTS THIS
MORNING... HOWEVER IT`S LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WE`RE ENTERING INTO
A PERIOD OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DOMINATED BY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
BUT WITH POTENTIAL INJECTIONS OF COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHERN
STREAM. A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM MT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MERGE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EMANATING FROM
THE LOW OVER NRN MEX SAT NIGHT/SUN... BRINGING MID LEVEL DPVA INTO
NC SUN/SUN NIGHT. THE SHIFTING OF THE SURFACE HIGH ESE OFF THE COAST
WILL ALLOW A MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF INTO THE GULF/MIDSOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST STATES... AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE NW GULF COAST AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD
NC. THE GFS/ECMWF BRING PRECIP INTO WRN NC BY MIDDAY SUN... THEN
SPREAD IT EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MILLER TYPE-B CYCLOGENESIS
PATTERN BUT WITH VARIED LOW PLACEMENT... WITH THE ECMWF DEPICTING A
FURTHER-SOUTH TRIPLE POINT LOW TRACK VERSUS THE GFS. THE LATEST RUNS
SHOWS SUFFICIENTLY WARM LOW- AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES TO SUPPORT AN
ALL-RAIN EVENT... BUT GIVEN THIS PATTERN... WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL
TRENDS CAREFULLY IN THE COMING DAYS. WITH OTHERWISE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN... WILL BUMP UP
POPS... FOCUSING THE HIGHER CHANCES SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN
NIGHT... TAPERING DOWN WEST-TO-EAST MON MORNING AS THE DAMPENING MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER THE MIDATLANTIC/ NORTHEAST
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH NC. EXPECT IMPROVING WEATHER
LATE MON WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST
BUILDING INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH SUN
NIGHT... WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR HIGHS ON MON AS MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON WHETHER OR NOT WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR NOW BUT IF MODEL WARMING
TRENDS HOLD... MAY NEED TO BUMP UP MON HIGHS QUITE A BIT IN LATER
FORECASTS. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADING NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING. SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE KRWI AREA
AND IS NOW CONFINED NORTH AND EAST. ELSEWHERE PRECIPITATION HAS
LARGELY ENDED OUTSIDE OF A FEW SNOW FLURRIES. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT THIS HOUR BUT WILL BE PICKING BACK UP TO 5-10 KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND THEN GUSTING TO 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR CEILINGS STILL IN PLACE IN AREAS WHERE LIGHT
SNOW IS STILL FALLING. ELSEWHERE VFR CEILINGS ARE PREVAILING AND
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER.

LONG TERM: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA AND
THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 271603
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1047 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A CLIPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD INTO
OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 1047 AM TUESDAY...

RADAR...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS... AND REPORTS FROM AROUND THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE NE PIEDMONT... (FROM TARBORO AND HALIFAX TO
NEAR RDU)... INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES CONTINUE
FROM TIME TO TIME. OTHER THAN THE DUSTING UP TO NEARLY AN INCH
REPORTS FROM AROUND HENDERSON AND WARRENTON TO A DUSTING AT
LOUISBURG AND ROCKY MOUNT AROUND SUNRISE... THERE HAVE BEEN NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS REPORTED. THE GROUND IS WARM ENOUGH TO
ALLOW MELTING OF MUCH OF WHAT SNOW EARLIER FELL IN THE NE. ROADS AND
STREETS WERE JUST WET OR DRYING NOW.

A COUPLE OF NW TO SE ORIENTED BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES CONTINUE
TO AFFECT AREAS FROM LAKE GASTON AND ROANOKE RAPIDS TO NEAR TARBORO
(10-20 DBZ RETURNS)... AND EVEN LIGHTER REFLECTIVELY RETURNS (5-10
DBZ) INDICATE A FEW FLURRIES FROM HENDERSON TO NEAR GOLDSBORO. IT IS
IN THE 10-20DBZ RETURNS IN WHICH WE HAVE REPORTS OF 3-6 MILE
VISIBILITIES WITH THE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES... ESPECIALLY IN THE
BAND NOW POSITIONED NW TO SE ALONG THE ROANOKE RIVER. THE OTHER BAND
WITH WEAKER RETURNS FROM LOUISBURG TO WILSON AND GOLDSBORO IS WHERE
THERE ARE A FEW FLURRIES NOTED.

DRIER AIR CONTINUED TO WORK IN FROM WESTERN VA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NC
LATE MORNING. AREAS FROM ROANOKE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE TRIAD TO
DANVILLE WERE MOSTLY SUNNY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLOW PROCESS
THIS AFTERNOON... BUT THE DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT. EXPECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO PERSIST A FEW MORE
HOURS BEFORE THE SUPPORT FINALLY ALLOWS DISSIPATION AND MOVEMENT
EAST WITH TIME.

THIS WILL LEAD TO SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN ALL BUT THE FAR NE WHERE CLEARING SHOULD ENSUE THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE... WE DROPPED HIGHS BACK A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE
CAA... AND THE LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOME AREAS. HIGHS 38 NORTH AND
NORTHEAST TO 45 AROUND LAURINBURG AND FAYETTEVILLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

EXPECT DRYING TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES BUT WINDS
REMAINING 5-10 KTS SO NOT EXACTLY GREAT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT
TEMPS WILL STILL MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 20S WITH THE CHANGE
IN AIRMASS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS
CENTRAL NC IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE EXITING BLIZZARD TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A LITTLE BUT STILL A GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID
40S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS 5-
10 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH VEERING TO NORTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP IN THE TRIAD. GENERALLY MID
20S BUT POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 20S IN OUR EASTERN NORMALLY COLD
ZONES.THU/THU NIGHT: THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE
THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC STATES... TRACKING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE POLAR LOW OVER HUDSON BAY... WHILE ITS
CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE OH VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC
COAST. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SSE WILL
ALLOW FOR A MODEST RECOVERY IN THICKNESSES... BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL... AND THE TEMP RISE WILL BE HINDERED BY THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS WITH APPROACHING WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA AND LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE. BUT MODELS STILL SHOW PW VALUES JUST BARELY REACHING
ABOVE NORMAL... AND GFS/NAM BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER BELOW 850 MB THROUGH THU. MODEL QPF IS ALSO SCANT
WITH THE GFS/NAM/SREF MEAN STAYING DRY OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THU
NIGHT. AFTER 00Z THE COLUMN STARTS TO DRY OUT ALOFT BEHIND THE 700
MB TROUGH... AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO SWEEP EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL TRIM BACK
EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT... FOCUSING THEM LATE THU
AFTERNOON UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT... HOWEVER AM RELUCTANT TO
REMOVE THEM ENTIRELY AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP
LATE THU AFTERNOON AND THU EVENING. EXPECT HIGHS THU IN THE MID 40S
TO AROUND 50. LOWS THU NIGHT 32-38.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

FRI-SAT: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SWINGING TO OUR EAST FRI
MORNING WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE NC COAST. NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY
CENTERED OVER NRN MINN DRIFTS SOUTHEAST... BUILDING INTO AND OVER
THE MIDATLANTIC THROUGH VA/ERN NC THROUGH SAT. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FRI/FRI NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH THIN CLOUDS
SAT AS WE START TO SEE INITIAL ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE DESERT SW
LOW TRACK EASTWARD WITHIN CONFLUENT NW MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES FRI... EXPECT BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE MID 20S... THEN WITH SUCH A CHILLY START
AND THE CANADIAN-SOURCE AIR MASS BUILDING IN YIELDING THICKNESSES AT
LEAST 30 M BELOW NORMAL... HIGHS SAT SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 40-45
RANGE.

SAT NGT-MON: A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS PERSISTS THIS
MORNING... HOWEVER IT`S LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WE`RE ENTERING INTO
A PERIOD OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DOMINATED BY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
BUT WITH POTENTIAL INJECTIONS OF COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHERN
STREAM. A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM MT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MERGE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EMANATING FROM
THE LOW OVER NRN MEX SAT NIGHT/SUN... BRINGING MID LEVEL DPVA INTO
NC SUN/SUN NIGHT. THE SHIFTING OF THE SURFACE HIGH ESE OFF THE COAST
WILL ALLOW A MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF INTO THE GULF/MIDSOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST STATES... AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE NW GULF COAST AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD
NC. THE GFS/ECMWF BRING PRECIP INTO WRN NC BY MIDDAY SUN... THEN
SPREAD IT EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MILLER TYPE-B CYCLOGENESIS
PATTERN BUT WITH VARIED LOW PLACEMENT... WITH THE ECMWF DEPICTING A
FURTHER-SOUTH TRIPLE POINT LOW TRACK VERSUS THE GFS. THE LATEST RUNS
SHOWS SUFFICIENTLY WARM LOW- AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES TO SUPPORT AN
ALL-RAIN EVENT... BUT GIVEN THIS PATTERN... WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL
TRENDS CAREFULLY IN THE COMING DAYS. WITH OTHERWISE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN... WILL BUMP UP
POPS... FOCUSING THE HIGHER CHANCES SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN
NIGHT... TAPERING DOWN WEST-TO-EAST MON MORNING AS THE DAMPENING MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER THE MIDATLANTIC/ NORTHEAST
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH NC. EXPECT IMPROVING WEATHER
LATE MON WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST
BUILDING INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH SUN
NIGHT... WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR HIGHS ON MON AS MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON WHETHER OR NOT WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR NOW BUT IF MODEL WARMING
TRENDS HOLD... MAY NEED TO BUMP UP MON HIGHS QUITE A BIT IN LATER
FORECASTS. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADING NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING. SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE KRWI AREA
AND IS NOW CONFINED NORTH AND EAST. ELSEWHERE PRECIPITATION HAS
LARGELY ENDED OUTSIDE OF A FEW SNOW FLURRIES. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT THIS HOUR BUT WILL BE PICKING BACK UP TO 5-10 KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND THEN GUSTING TO 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR CEILINGS STILL IN PLACE IN AREAS WHERE LIGHT
SNOW IS STILL FALLING. ELSEWHERE VFR CEILINGS ARE PREVAILING AND
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER.

LONG TERM: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA AND
THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 271145
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN
BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY AND TONIGHT: FRONTAL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE DELMARVA. THE
CWA IS CURRENTLY SPLIT BETWEEN DRIER AIR TO THE WEST OF ROUTE 1 AND
MORE MOISTURE TO THE EAST. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS SET UP ALONG
WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HAS BROUGHT SOME
SCATTERED REPORTS OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM PERSON COUNTY DOWN THROUGH
WAKE COUNTY WITH MOSTLY RAIN OR DRIZZLE SOUTH OF THERE. THIS BAND
WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOWARDS
TEH I-95 CORRIDOR AND THE EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES. SCATTERED
REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE MOST LOCALES DRY OUT. THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOULD END AFTER
12Z AS RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OR ANY IMPACTS FROM
THE SNOW ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL DUSTING ON ELEVATED SURFACES AT BEST
AS SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THIS SETUP HAS ALSO CAUSED A SPLIT IN CLOUD COVER WITH AREAS UNDER
AND EAST OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND EXPERIENCING MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS BACK TO THE WEST. A FEW WIND GUSTS STILL OUT
THERE UP TO 20 KTS OR SO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. GUSTS MAY DIE OFF
TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOW TO MID 40S NE TO SW AS CLOUDS
LINGER LONGER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE
NORTHEAST. EXPECT DRYING TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES BUT WINDS REMAINING 5-10 KTS SO NOT EXACTLY GREAT FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT TEMPS WILL STILL MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE 20S WITH THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS
CENTRAL NC IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE EXITING BLIZZARD TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A LITTLE BUT STILL A GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID
40S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS 5-
10 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH VEERING TO NORTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP IN THE TRIAD. GENERALLY MID
20S BUT POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 20S IN OUR EASTERN NORMALLY COLD ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

THU/THU NIGHT: THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE THEN
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC STATES... TRACKING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE POLAR LOW OVER HUDSON BAY... WHILE ITS CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE OH VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC COAST. AFTER A
CHILLY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD... INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SSE WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODEST RECOVERY IN THICKNESSES... BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL... AND THE
TEMP RISE WILL BE HINDERED BY THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH
APPROACHING WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. BUT
MODELS STILL SHOW PW VALUES JUST BARELY REACHING ABOVE NORMAL... AND
GFS/NAM BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER BELOW 850
MB THROUGH THU. MODEL QPF IS ALSO SCANT WITH THE GFS/NAM/SREF MEAN
STAYING DRY OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THU NIGHT. AFTER 00Z THE COLUMN
STARTS TO DRY OUT ALOFT BEHIND THE 700 MB TROUGH... AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST THROUGH CENTRAL
NC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL TRIM BACK EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A
BIT... FOCUSING THEM LATE THU AFTERNOON UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT... HOWEVER AM RELUCTANT TO REMOVE THEM ENTIRELY AS THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP LATE THU AFTERNOON AND THU
EVENING. EXPECT HIGHS THU IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. LOWS THU
NIGHT 32-38.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

FRI-SAT: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SWINGING TO OUR EAST FRI
MORNING WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE NC COAST. NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY
CENTERED OVER NRN MINN DRIFTS SOUTHEAST... BUILDING INTO AND OVER
THE MIDATLANTIC THROUGH VA/ERN NC THROUGH SAT. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FRI/FRI NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH THIN CLOUDS
SAT AS WE START TO SEE INITIAL ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE DESERT SW
LOW TRACK EASTWARD WITHIN CONFLUENT NW MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES FRI... EXPECT BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE MID 20S... THEN WITH SUCH A CHILLY START
AND THE CANADIAN-SOURCE AIR MASS BUILDING IN YIELDING THICKNESSES AT
LEAST 30 M BELOW NORMAL... HIGHS SAT SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 40-45
RANGE.

SAT NGT-MON: A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS PERSISTS THIS
MORNING... HOWEVER IT`S LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WE`RE ENTERING INTO
A PERIOD OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DOMINATED BY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
BUT WITH POTENTIAL INJECTIONS OF COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHERN
STREAM. A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM MT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MERGE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EMANATING FROM
THE LOW OVER NRN MEX SAT NIGHT/SUN... BRINGING MID LEVEL DPVA INTO
NC SUN/SUN NIGHT. THE SHIFTING OF THE SURFACE HIGH ESE OFF THE COAST
WILL ALLOW A MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF INTO THE GULF/MIDSOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST STATES... AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE NW GULF COAST AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD
NC. THE GFS/ECMWF BRING PRECIP INTO WRN NC BY MIDDAY SUN... THEN
SPREAD IT EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MILLER TYPE-B CYCLOGENESIS
PATTERN BUT WITH VARIED LOW PLACEMENT... WITH THE ECMWF DEPICTING A
FURTHER-SOUTH TRIPLE POINT LOW TRACK VERSUS THE GFS. THE LATEST RUNS
SHOWS SUFFICIENTLY WARM LOW- AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES TO SUPPORT AN
ALL-RAIN EVENT... BUT GIVEN THIS PATTERN... WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL
TRENDS CAREFULLY IN THE COMING DAYS. WITH OTHERWISE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN... WILL BUMP UP
POPS... FOCUSING THE HIGHER CHANCES SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN
NIGHT... TAPERING DOWN WEST-TO-EAST MON MORNING AS THE DAMPENING MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER THE MIDATLANTIC/ NORTHEAST
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH NC. EXPECT IMPROVING WEATHER
LATE MON WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST
BUILDING INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH SUN
NIGHT... WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR HIGHS ON MON AS MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON WHETHER OR NOT WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR NOW BUT IF MODEL WARMING
TRENDS HOLD... MAY NEED TO BUMP UP MON HIGHS QUITE A BIT IN LATER
FORECASTS. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADING NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING. SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE KRWI AREA
AND IS NOW CONFINED NORTH AND EAST. ELSEWHERE PRECIPITATION HAS
LARGELY ENDED OUTSIDE OF A FEW SNOW FLURRIES. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT THIS HOUR BUT WILL BE PICKING BACK UP TO 5-10 KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND THEN GUSTING TO 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR CEILINGS STILL IN PLACE IN AREAS WHERE LIGHT
SNOW IS STILL FALLING. ELSEWHERE VFR CEILINGS ARE PREVAILING AND
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER.

LONG TERM: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA AND
THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 271145
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN
BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY AND TONIGHT: FRONTAL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE DELMARVA. THE
CWA IS CURRENTLY SPLIT BETWEEN DRIER AIR TO THE WEST OF ROUTE 1 AND
MORE MOISTURE TO THE EAST. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS SET UP ALONG
WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HAS BROUGHT SOME
SCATTERED REPORTS OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM PERSON COUNTY DOWN THROUGH
WAKE COUNTY WITH MOSTLY RAIN OR DRIZZLE SOUTH OF THERE. THIS BAND
WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOWARDS
TEH I-95 CORRIDOR AND THE EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES. SCATTERED
REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE MOST LOCALES DRY OUT. THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOULD END AFTER
12Z AS RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OR ANY IMPACTS FROM
THE SNOW ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL DUSTING ON ELEVATED SURFACES AT BEST
AS SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THIS SETUP HAS ALSO CAUSED A SPLIT IN CLOUD COVER WITH AREAS UNDER
AND EAST OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND EXPERIENCING MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS BACK TO THE WEST. A FEW WIND GUSTS STILL OUT
THERE UP TO 20 KTS OR SO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. GUSTS MAY DIE OFF
TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOW TO MID 40S NE TO SW AS CLOUDS
LINGER LONGER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE
NORTHEAST. EXPECT DRYING TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES BUT WINDS REMAINING 5-10 KTS SO NOT EXACTLY GREAT FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT TEMPS WILL STILL MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE 20S WITH THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS
CENTRAL NC IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE EXITING BLIZZARD TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A LITTLE BUT STILL A GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID
40S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS 5-
10 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH VEERING TO NORTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP IN THE TRIAD. GENERALLY MID
20S BUT POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 20S IN OUR EASTERN NORMALLY COLD ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

THU/THU NIGHT: THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE THEN
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC STATES... TRACKING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE POLAR LOW OVER HUDSON BAY... WHILE ITS CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE OH VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC COAST. AFTER A
CHILLY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD... INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SSE WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODEST RECOVERY IN THICKNESSES... BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL... AND THE
TEMP RISE WILL BE HINDERED BY THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH
APPROACHING WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. BUT
MODELS STILL SHOW PW VALUES JUST BARELY REACHING ABOVE NORMAL... AND
GFS/NAM BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER BELOW 850
MB THROUGH THU. MODEL QPF IS ALSO SCANT WITH THE GFS/NAM/SREF MEAN
STAYING DRY OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THU NIGHT. AFTER 00Z THE COLUMN
STARTS TO DRY OUT ALOFT BEHIND THE 700 MB TROUGH... AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST THROUGH CENTRAL
NC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL TRIM BACK EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A
BIT... FOCUSING THEM LATE THU AFTERNOON UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT... HOWEVER AM RELUCTANT TO REMOVE THEM ENTIRELY AS THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP LATE THU AFTERNOON AND THU
EVENING. EXPECT HIGHS THU IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. LOWS THU
NIGHT 32-38.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

FRI-SAT: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SWINGING TO OUR EAST FRI
MORNING WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE NC COAST. NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY
CENTERED OVER NRN MINN DRIFTS SOUTHEAST... BUILDING INTO AND OVER
THE MIDATLANTIC THROUGH VA/ERN NC THROUGH SAT. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FRI/FRI NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH THIN CLOUDS
SAT AS WE START TO SEE INITIAL ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE DESERT SW
LOW TRACK EASTWARD WITHIN CONFLUENT NW MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES FRI... EXPECT BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE MID 20S... THEN WITH SUCH A CHILLY START
AND THE CANADIAN-SOURCE AIR MASS BUILDING IN YIELDING THICKNESSES AT
LEAST 30 M BELOW NORMAL... HIGHS SAT SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 40-45
RANGE.

SAT NGT-MON: A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS PERSISTS THIS
MORNING... HOWEVER IT`S LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WE`RE ENTERING INTO
A PERIOD OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DOMINATED BY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
BUT WITH POTENTIAL INJECTIONS OF COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHERN
STREAM. A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM MT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MERGE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EMANATING FROM
THE LOW OVER NRN MEX SAT NIGHT/SUN... BRINGING MID LEVEL DPVA INTO
NC SUN/SUN NIGHT. THE SHIFTING OF THE SURFACE HIGH ESE OFF THE COAST
WILL ALLOW A MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF INTO THE GULF/MIDSOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST STATES... AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE NW GULF COAST AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD
NC. THE GFS/ECMWF BRING PRECIP INTO WRN NC BY MIDDAY SUN... THEN
SPREAD IT EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MILLER TYPE-B CYCLOGENESIS
PATTERN BUT WITH VARIED LOW PLACEMENT... WITH THE ECMWF DEPICTING A
FURTHER-SOUTH TRIPLE POINT LOW TRACK VERSUS THE GFS. THE LATEST RUNS
SHOWS SUFFICIENTLY WARM LOW- AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES TO SUPPORT AN
ALL-RAIN EVENT... BUT GIVEN THIS PATTERN... WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL
TRENDS CAREFULLY IN THE COMING DAYS. WITH OTHERWISE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN... WILL BUMP UP
POPS... FOCUSING THE HIGHER CHANCES SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN
NIGHT... TAPERING DOWN WEST-TO-EAST MON MORNING AS THE DAMPENING MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER THE MIDATLANTIC/ NORTHEAST
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH NC. EXPECT IMPROVING WEATHER
LATE MON WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST
BUILDING INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH SUN
NIGHT... WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR HIGHS ON MON AS MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON WHETHER OR NOT WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR NOW BUT IF MODEL WARMING
TRENDS HOLD... MAY NEED TO BUMP UP MON HIGHS QUITE A BIT IN LATER
FORECASTS. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADING NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING. SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE KRWI AREA
AND IS NOW CONFINED NORTH AND EAST. ELSEWHERE PRECIPITATION HAS
LARGELY ENDED OUTSIDE OF A FEW SNOW FLURRIES. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT THIS HOUR BUT WILL BE PICKING BACK UP TO 5-10 KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND THEN GUSTING TO 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR CEILINGS STILL IN PLACE IN AREAS WHERE LIGHT
SNOW IS STILL FALLING. ELSEWHERE VFR CEILINGS ARE PREVAILING AND
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER.

LONG TERM: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA AND
THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 270741
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
241 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN
BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY AND TONIGHT: FRONTAL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE DELMARVA. THE
CWA IS CURRENTLY SPLIT BETWEEN DRIER AIR TO THE WEST OF ROUTE 1 AND
MORE MOISTURE TO THE EAST. A BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS SET UP ALONG
WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HAS BROUGHT SOME
SCATTERED REPORTS OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM PERSON COUNTY DOWN THROUGH
WAKE COUNTY WITH MOSTLY RAIN OR DRIZZLE SOUTH OF THERE. THIS BAND
WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOWARDS
TEH I-95 CORRIDOR AND THE EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES. SCATTERED
REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE MOST LOCALES DRY OUT. THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOULD END AFTER
12Z AS RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OR ANY IMPACTS FROM
THE SNOW ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL DUSTING ON ELEVATED SURFACES AT BEST
AS SOIL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THIS SETUP HAS ALSO CAUSED A SPLIT IN CLOUD COVER WITH AREAS UNDER
AND EAST OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND EXPERIENCING MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS BACK TO THE WEST. A FEW WIND GUSTS STILL OUT
THERE UP TO 20 KTS OR SO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. GUSTS MAY DIE OFF
TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOW TO MID 40S NE TO SW AS CLOUDS
LINGER LONGER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE
NORTHEAST. EXPECT DRYING TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES BUT WINDS REMAINING 5-10 KTS SO NOT EXACTLY GREAT FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT TEMPS WILL STILL MANAGE TO DROP INTO THE
MIDDLE 20S WITH THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A DRY DAY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS
CENTRAL NC IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE EXITING BLIZZARD TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A LITTLE BUT STILL A GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID
40S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS 5-
10 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH VEERING TO NORTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE DAY.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP IN THE TRIAD. GENERALLY MID
20S BUT POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 20S IN OUR EASTERN NORMALLY COLD ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

THU/THU NIGHT: THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE THEN
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC STATES... TRACKING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE POLAR LOW OVER HUDSON BAY... WHILE ITS CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE OH VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC COAST. AFTER A
CHILLY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD... INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SSE WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODEST RECOVERY IN THICKNESSES... BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL... AND THE
TEMP RISE WILL BE HINDERED BY THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH
APPROACHING WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. BUT
MODELS STILL SHOW PW VALUES JUST BARELY REACHING ABOVE NORMAL... AND
GFS/NAM BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER BELOW 850
MB THROUGH THU. MODEL QPF IS ALSO SCANT WITH THE GFS/NAM/SREF MEAN
STAYING DRY OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THU NIGHT. AFTER 00Z THE COLUMN
STARTS TO DRY OUT ALOFT BEHIND THE 700 MB TROUGH... AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST THROUGH CENTRAL
NC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL TRIM BACK EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A
BIT... FOCUSING THEM LATE THU AFTERNOON UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT... HOWEVER AM RELUCTANT TO REMOVE THEM ENTIRELY AS THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP LATE THU AFTERNOON AND THU
EVENING. EXPECT HIGHS THU IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. LOWS THU
NIGHT 32-38.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

FRI-SAT: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SWINGING TO OUR EAST FRI
MORNING WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE NC COAST. NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY
CENTERED OVER NRN MINN DRIFTS SOUTHEAST... BUILDING INTO AND OVER
THE MIDATLANTIC THROUGH VA/ERN NC THROUGH SAT. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FRI/FRI NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH THIN CLOUDS
SAT AS WE START TO SEE INITIAL ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE DESERT SW
LOW TRACK EASTWARD WITHIN CONFLUENT NW MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES FRI... EXPECT BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE MID 20S... THEN WITH SUCH A CHILLY START
AND THE CANADIAN-SOURCE AIR MASS BUILDING IN YIELDING THICKNESSES AT
LEAST 30 M BELOW NORMAL... HIGHS SAT SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 40-45
RANGE.

SAT NGT-MON: A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS PERSISTS THIS
MORNING... HOWEVER IT`S LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WE`RE ENTERING INTO
A PERIOD OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DOMINATED BY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
BUT WITH POTENTIAL INJECTIONS OF COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHERN
STREAM. A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM MT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MERGE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EMANATING FROM
THE LOW OVER NRN MEX SAT NIGHT/SUN... BRINGING MID LEVEL DPVA INTO
NC SUN/SUN NIGHT. THE SHIFTING OF THE SURFACE HIGH ESE OFF THE COAST
WILL ALLOW A MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF INTO THE GULF/MIDSOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST STATES... AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE NW GULF COAST AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD
NC. THE GFS/ECMWF BRING PRECIP INTO WRN NC BY MIDDAY SUN... THEN
SPREAD IT EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MILLER TYPE-B CYCLOGENESIS
PATTERN BUT WITH VARIED LOW PLACEMENT... WITH THE ECMWF DEPICTING A
FURTHER-SOUTH TRIPLE POINT LOW TRACK VERSUS THE GFS. THE LATEST RUNS
SHOWS SUFFICIENTLY WARM LOW- AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES TO SUPPORT AN
ALL-RAIN EVENT... BUT GIVEN THIS PATTERN... WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL
TRENDS CAREFULLY IN THE COMING DAYS. WITH OTHERWISE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN... WILL BUMP UP
POPS... FOCUSING THE HIGHER CHANCES SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN
NIGHT... TAPERING DOWN WEST-TO-EAST MON MORNING AS THE DAMPENING MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER THE MIDATLANTIC/ NORTHEAST
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH NC. EXPECT IMPROVING WEATHER
LATE MON WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST
BUILDING INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH SUN
NIGHT... WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR HIGHS ON MON AS MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON WHETHER OR NOT WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR NOW BUT IF MODEL WARMING
TRENDS HOLD... MAY NEED TO BUMP UP MON HIGHS QUITE A BIT IN LATER
FORECASTS. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONDITIONS AT THIS HOUR ARE GENERALLY SPLIT
BETWEEN VFR IN THE WEST WHERE IT IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND MVFR IN
THE EAST WHERE MORE MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS WITH VISIBILITIES EVERYWHERE
COMING IN AT 10 SM. THERE CONTINUE TO BE A FEW WIND GUSTS OUT THERE
UP TO 20 KTS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST WHICH MAKES SINCE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE INCREASES CLOSER TO THE LOW OFFSHORE.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND WILL STAY THAT WAY
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX AFTER 9Z. AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS
WILL BE PREVALENT AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR EVEN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES AS WE
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION BEING THE
NORTHEAST. ONE OTHER NOTE...PILOT REPORTS HAVE BEEN COMING IN AROUND
KRDU AND POINTS NORTH FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE ICING FROM 4-12 KFT.

LONG TERM: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA AND
THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 270710
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
210 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN
BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 905 PM MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING AS EVIDENT OF BLUSTERY NW SFC WINDS IN THE
TRIAD AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE RALEIGH
DURHAM AREA THROUGH 10 PM...AND ROCKY MOUNT/WILSON...AND
FAYETTEVILLE AROUND MIDNIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AIDING TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN A BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
THE RDU AREA SOUTHWARD TO FORT BRAGG. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
GLIDE SEWD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STRONG JET (NEAR 150KTS) DIGGING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE
UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO DEEP SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THIS DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL PULL COLDER AIR FARTHER
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ROTATING
SOUTHWARD FROM VA INTO NE NC WILL EVENTUALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NE PIEDMONT AND THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT DUSTING
ON THE TOP OF CARS OR WOODEN DECKS...BUT THE EXPECTED LIGHT PRECIP
INTENSITY AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND SUGGEST NO ACCUMULATION ON THE
GROUND OR ROAD SURFACES.

BLUSTERY NW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ADVECT A DRIER COLDER AIR MASS INTO
CENTRAL NC. THIS WIND SHOULD EVAPORATE THE BULK OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE
LEFTOVER FROM RECENT RAINFALL. THUS AS TEMPS DROP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE SCENARIO THOUGH COULD SEE A SLICK
SPOT OR TWO ON LESS TRAVELED ROADS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAINWATER
NORMALLY COLLECTS AND IS SHELTERED FROM THE WIND. -WSS

THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SNOW FLURRY OR SHOWER MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
OF RDU THROUGH LATE MORNING... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER... THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
INFLUENCE ON MUCH OF THE REGION AS IT WILL BE SLOW TO PULL OUT TO
THE NE. THE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY NE TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW
AND WEST WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 40S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WILL PRODUCE A CHILLY WIND CHILL IN THE
20S AND 30S THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 20S. -BADGETT

WED/WED NIGHT: CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND NOR`EASTER AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE /SFC HIGH/ BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
(WED) AND CAROLINAS (WED NIGHT). EXPECT HIGHS 40-45F...COOLEST NE
COASTAL PLAIN. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SUGGEST LOWS IN THE
LOWER/MID 20S WED NIGHT...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLY BY SUNRISE...ESP N/NW
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. IF UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS ARRIVE EARLY AND/OR
THICK ENOUGH...LOWS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WOULD
OTHERWISE BE THE CASE. -BV

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

THU/THU NIGHT: THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE THEN
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC STATES... TRACKING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE POLAR LOW OVER HUDSON BAY... WHILE ITS CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE OH VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC COAST. AFTER A
CHILLY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD... INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SSE WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODEST RECOVERY IN THICKNESSES... BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL... AND THE
TEMP RISE WILL BE HINDERED BY THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH
APPROACHING WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. BUT
MODELS STILL SHOW PW VALUES JUST BARELY REACHING ABOVE NORMAL... AND
GFS/NAM BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER BELOW 850
MB THROUGH THU. MODEL QPF IS ALSO SCANT WITH THE GFS/NAM/SREF MEAN
STAYING DRY OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THU NIGHT. AFTER 00Z THE COLUMN
STARTS TO DRY OUT ALOFT BEHIND THE 700 MB TROUGH... AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST THROUGH CENTRAL
NC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL TRIM BACK EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A
BIT... FOCUSING THEM LATE THU AFTERNOON UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT... HOWEVER AM RELUCTANT TO REMOVE THEM ENTIRELY AS THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP LATE THU AFTERNOON AND THU
EVENING. EXPECT HIGHS THU IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. LOWS THU
NIGHT 32-38.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

FRI-SAT: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SWINGING TO OUR EAST FRI
MORNING WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE NC COAST. NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY
CENTERED OVER NRN MINN DRIFTS SOUTHEAST... BUILDING INTO AND OVER
THE MIDATLANTIC THROUGH VA/ERN NC THROUGH SAT. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FRI/FRI NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH THIN CLOUDS
SAT AS WE START TO SEE INITIAL ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE DESERT SW
LOW TRACK EASTWARD WITHIN CONFLUENT NW MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES FRI... EXPECT BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE MID 20S... THEN WITH SUCH A CHILLY START
AND THE CANADIAN-SOURCE AIR MASS BUILDING IN YIELDING THICKNESSES AT
LEAST 30 M BELOW NORMAL... HIGHS SAT SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 40-45
RANGE.

SAT NGT-MON: A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS PERSISTS THIS
MORNING... HOWEVER IT`S LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WE`RE ENTERING INTO
A PERIOD OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DOMINATED BY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
BUT WITH POTENTIAL INJECTIONS OF COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHERN
STREAM. A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM MT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MERGE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EMANATING FROM
THE LOW OVER NRN MEX SAT NIGHT/SUN... BRINGING MID LEVEL DPVA INTO
NC SUN/SUN NIGHT. THE SHIFTING OF THE SURFACE HIGH ESE OFF THE COAST
WILL ALLOW A MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF INTO THE GULF/MIDSOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST STATES... AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE NW GULF COAST AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD
NC. THE GFS/ECMWF BRING PRECIP INTO WRN NC BY MIDDAY SUN... THEN
SPREAD IT EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MILLER TYPE-B CYCLOGENESIS
PATTERN BUT WITH VARIED LOW PLACEMENT... WITH THE ECMWF DEPICTING A
FURTHER-SOUTH TRIPLE POINT LOW TRACK VERSUS THE GFS. THE LATEST RUNS
SHOWS SUFFICIENTLY WARM LOW- AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES TO SUPPORT AN
ALL-RAIN EVENT... BUT GIVEN THIS PATTERN... WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL
TRENDS CAREFULLY IN THE COMING DAYS. WITH OTHERWISE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN... WILL BUMP UP
POPS... FOCUSING THE HIGHER CHANCES SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN
NIGHT... TAPERING DOWN WEST-TO-EAST MON MORNING AS THE DAMPENING MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER THE MIDATLANTIC/ NORTHEAST
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH NC. EXPECT IMPROVING WEATHER
LATE MON WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST
BUILDING INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH SUN
NIGHT... WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR HIGHS ON MON AS MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON WHETHER OR NOT WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR NOW BUT IF MODEL WARMING
TRENDS HOLD... MAY NEED TO BUMP UP MON HIGHS QUITE A BIT IN LATER
FORECASTS. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONDITIONS AT THIS HOUR ARE GENERALLY SPLIT
BETWEEN VFR IN THE WEST WHERE IT IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND MVFR IN
THE EAST WHERE MORE MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS WITH VISIBILITIES EVERYWHERE
COMING IN AT 10 SM. THERE CONTINUE TO BE A FEW WIND GUSTS OUT THERE
UP TO 20 KTS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST WHICH MAKES SINCE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE INCREASES CLOSER TO THE LOW OFFSHORE.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND WILL STAY THAT WAY
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX AFTER 9Z. AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS
WILL BE PREVALENT AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR EVEN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES AS WE
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION BEING THE
NORTHEAST. ONE OTHER NOTE...PILOT REPORTS HAVE BEEN COMING IN AROUND
KRDU AND POINTS NORTH FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE ICING FROM 4-12 KFT.

LONG TERM: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA AND
THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...WSS/BADGETT/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 270710
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
210 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER
CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN
BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 905 PM MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING AS EVIDENT OF BLUSTERY NW SFC WINDS IN THE
TRIAD AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE RALEIGH
DURHAM AREA THROUGH 10 PM...AND ROCKY MOUNT/WILSON...AND
FAYETTEVILLE AROUND MIDNIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AIDING TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN A BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
THE RDU AREA SOUTHWARD TO FORT BRAGG. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
GLIDE SEWD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STRONG JET (NEAR 150KTS) DIGGING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE
UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO DEEP SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THIS DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL PULL COLDER AIR FARTHER
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ROTATING
SOUTHWARD FROM VA INTO NE NC WILL EVENTUALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NE PIEDMONT AND THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT DUSTING
ON THE TOP OF CARS OR WOODEN DECKS...BUT THE EXPECTED LIGHT PRECIP
INTENSITY AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND SUGGEST NO ACCUMULATION ON THE
GROUND OR ROAD SURFACES.

BLUSTERY NW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ADVECT A DRIER COLDER AIR MASS INTO
CENTRAL NC. THIS WIND SHOULD EVAPORATE THE BULK OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE
LEFTOVER FROM RECENT RAINFALL. THUS AS TEMPS DROP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE SCENARIO THOUGH COULD SEE A SLICK
SPOT OR TWO ON LESS TRAVELED ROADS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAINWATER
NORMALLY COLLECTS AND IS SHELTERED FROM THE WIND. -WSS

THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SNOW FLURRY OR SHOWER MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
OF RDU THROUGH LATE MORNING... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER... THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
INFLUENCE ON MUCH OF THE REGION AS IT WILL BE SLOW TO PULL OUT TO
THE NE. THE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY NE TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW
AND WEST WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 40S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WILL PRODUCE A CHILLY WIND CHILL IN THE
20S AND 30S THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 20S. -BADGETT

WED/WED NIGHT: CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND NOR`EASTER AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE /SFC HIGH/ BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
(WED) AND CAROLINAS (WED NIGHT). EXPECT HIGHS 40-45F...COOLEST NE
COASTAL PLAIN. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SUGGEST LOWS IN THE
LOWER/MID 20S WED NIGHT...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLY BY SUNRISE...ESP N/NW
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. IF UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS ARRIVE EARLY AND/OR
THICK ENOUGH...LOWS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WOULD
OTHERWISE BE THE CASE. -BV

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

THU/THU NIGHT: THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE THEN
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC STATES... TRACKING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE POLAR LOW OVER HUDSON BAY... WHILE ITS CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE OH VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC COAST. AFTER A
CHILLY MORNING WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD... INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SSE WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODEST RECOVERY IN THICKNESSES... BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL... AND THE
TEMP RISE WILL BE HINDERED BY THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH
APPROACHING WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA AND LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. BUT
MODELS STILL SHOW PW VALUES JUST BARELY REACHING ABOVE NORMAL... AND
GFS/NAM BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER BELOW 850
MB THROUGH THU. MODEL QPF IS ALSO SCANT WITH THE GFS/NAM/SREF MEAN
STAYING DRY OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THU NIGHT. AFTER 00Z THE COLUMN
STARTS TO DRY OUT ALOFT BEHIND THE 700 MB TROUGH... AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST THROUGH CENTRAL
NC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL TRIM BACK EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A
BIT... FOCUSING THEM LATE THU AFTERNOON UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT... HOWEVER AM RELUCTANT TO REMOVE THEM ENTIRELY AS THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP LATE THU AFTERNOON AND THU
EVENING. EXPECT HIGHS THU IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. LOWS THU
NIGHT 32-38.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

FRI-SAT: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SWINGING TO OUR EAST FRI
MORNING WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE NC COAST. NW LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY
CENTERED OVER NRN MINN DRIFTS SOUTHEAST... BUILDING INTO AND OVER
THE MIDATLANTIC THROUGH VA/ERN NC THROUGH SAT. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FRI/FRI NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH THIN CLOUDS
SAT AS WE START TO SEE INITIAL ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE DESERT SW
LOW TRACK EASTWARD WITHIN CONFLUENT NW MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH FALLING
THICKNESSES FRI... EXPECT BELOW-NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE MID 20S... THEN WITH SUCH A CHILLY START
AND THE CANADIAN-SOURCE AIR MASS BUILDING IN YIELDING THICKNESSES AT
LEAST 30 M BELOW NORMAL... HIGHS SAT SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 40-45
RANGE.

SAT NGT-MON: A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS PERSISTS THIS
MORNING... HOWEVER IT`S LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WE`RE ENTERING INTO
A PERIOD OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER DOMINATED BY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
BUT WITH POTENTIAL INJECTIONS OF COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHERN
STREAM. A NRN STREAM WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM MT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MERGE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY EMANATING FROM
THE LOW OVER NRN MEX SAT NIGHT/SUN... BRINGING MID LEVEL DPVA INTO
NC SUN/SUN NIGHT. THE SHIFTING OF THE SURFACE HIGH ESE OFF THE COAST
WILL ALLOW A MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF INTO THE GULF/MIDSOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST STATES... AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE NW GULF COAST AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD
NC. THE GFS/ECMWF BRING PRECIP INTO WRN NC BY MIDDAY SUN... THEN
SPREAD IT EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A MILLER TYPE-B CYCLOGENESIS
PATTERN BUT WITH VARIED LOW PLACEMENT... WITH THE ECMWF DEPICTING A
FURTHER-SOUTH TRIPLE POINT LOW TRACK VERSUS THE GFS. THE LATEST RUNS
SHOWS SUFFICIENTLY WARM LOW- AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESSES TO SUPPORT AN
ALL-RAIN EVENT... BUT GIVEN THIS PATTERN... WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL
TRENDS CAREFULLY IN THE COMING DAYS. WITH OTHERWISE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN... WILL BUMP UP
POPS... FOCUSING THE HIGHER CHANCES SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN
NIGHT... TAPERING DOWN WEST-TO-EAST MON MORNING AS THE DAMPENING MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVER THE MIDATLANTIC/ NORTHEAST
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH NC. EXPECT IMPROVING WEATHER
LATE MON WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST
BUILDING INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH SUN
NIGHT... WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR HIGHS ON MON AS MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON WHETHER OR NOT WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR NOW BUT IF MODEL WARMING
TRENDS HOLD... MAY NEED TO BUMP UP MON HIGHS QUITE A BIT IN LATER
FORECASTS. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONDITIONS AT THIS HOUR ARE GENERALLY SPLIT
BETWEEN VFR IN THE WEST WHERE IT IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND MVFR IN
THE EAST WHERE MORE MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS WITH VISIBILITIES EVERYWHERE
COMING IN AT 10 SM. THERE CONTINUE TO BE A FEW WIND GUSTS OUT THERE
UP TO 20 KTS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST WHICH MAKES SINCE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE INCREASES CLOSER TO THE LOW OFFSHORE.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND WILL STAY THAT WAY
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX AFTER 9Z. AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS
WILL BE PREVALENT AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR EVEN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES AS WE
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION BEING THE
NORTHEAST. ONE OTHER NOTE...PILOT REPORTS HAVE BEEN COMING IN AROUND
KRDU AND POINTS NORTH FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE ICING FROM 4-12 KFT.

LONG TERM: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA AND
THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...WSS/BADGETT/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 270604
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
103 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK NORTH OF NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 905 PM MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING AS EVIDENT OF BLUSTERY NW SFC WINDS IN THE
TRIAD AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE RALEIGH
DURHAM AREA THROUGH 10 PM...AND ROCKY MOUNT/WILSON...AND
FAYETTEVILLE AROUND MIDNIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AIDING TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN A BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
THE RDU AREA SOUTHWARD TO FORT BRAGG. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
GLIDE SEWD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STRONG JET (NEAR 150KTS) DIGGING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE
UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO DEEP SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THIS DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL PULL COLDER AIR FARTHER
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ROTATING
SOUTHWARD FROM VA INTO NE NC WILL EVENTUALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NE PIEDMONT AND THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT DUSTING
ON THE TOP OF CARS OR WOODEN DECKS...BUT THE EXPECTED LIGHT PRECIP
INTENSITY AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND SUGGEST NO ACCUMULATION ON THE
GROUND OR ROAD SURFACES.

BLUSTERY NW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ADVECT A DRIER COLDER AIR MASS INTO
CENTRAL NC. THIS WIND SHOULD EVAPORATE THE BULK OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE
LEFTOVER FROM RECENT RAINFALL. THUS AS TEMPS DROP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE SCENARIO THOUGH COULD SEE A SLICK
SPOT OR TWO ON LESS TRAVELED ROADS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAINWATER
NORMALLY COLLECTS AND IS SHELTERED FROM THE WIND. -WSS

THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SNOW FLURRY OR SHOWER MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
OF RDU THROUGH LATE MORNING... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER... THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
INFLUENCE ON MUCH OF THE REGION AS IT WILL BE SLOW TO PULL OUT TO
THE NE. THE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY NE TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW
AND WEST WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 40S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WILL PRODUCE A CHILLY WIND CHILL IN THE
20S AND 30S THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 20S. -BADGETT

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND NOR`EASTER AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE /SFC HIGH/ BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
(WED) AND CAROLINAS (WED NIGHT). EXPECT HIGHS 40-45F...COOLEST NE
COASTAL PLAIN. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SUGGEST LOWS IN THE
LOWER/MID 20S WED NIGHT...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLY BY SUNRISE...ESP N/NW
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. IF UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS ARRIVE EARLY AND/OR
THICK ENOUGH...LOWS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WOULD
OTHERWISE BE THE CASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...

THU/THU NIGHT: THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT. GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
AIRMASS IN PLACE...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN
WILL OCCUR IN ORDER FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...ESP WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
GIVEN THAT WARM ADVECTION WILL BE BRIEF/WEAK AND LARGELY CONFINED TO
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...IN ADDITION TO THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 33-38F RANGE...COOLEST NW
AND WARMEST SE.

FRI-SAT: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST FRI/SAT...IN ASSOC/W COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...
AND IN ASSOC/W NEUTRAL ADVECTION...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD...AND A COLD ANTECEDENT AIRMASS ON SAT.

SUN-MON: SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY (BEYOND THE TYPICAL) PERSISTS WITH
REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...FORECAST
DETAILS CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED AT THIS TIME (BEYOND GUESSING). IN
GENERAL...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE /ATTENDANT LOW/ PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
EASTERN US...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
LATE MON/MON NIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONDITIONS AT THIS HOUR ARE GENERALLY SPLIT
BETWEEN VFR IN THE WEST WHERE IT IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND MVFR IN
THE EAST WHERE MORE MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS WITH VISIBILITIES EVERYWHERE
COMING IN AT 10 SM. THERE CONTINUE TO BE A FEW WIND GUSTS OUT THERE
UP TO 20 KTS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST WHICH MAKES SINCE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE INCREASES CLOSER TO THE LOW OFFSHORE.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND WILL STAY THAT WAY
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX AFTER 9Z. AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS
WILL BE PREVALENT AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR EVEN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES AS WE
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION BEING THE
NORTHEAST. ONE OTHER NOTE...PILOT REPORTS HAVE BEEN COMING IN AROUND
KRDU AND POINTS NORTH FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE ICING FROM 4-12 KFT.

LONG TERM: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA AND
THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...WSS/BADGETT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 270604
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
103 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK NORTH OF NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 905 PM MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING AS EVIDENT OF BLUSTERY NW SFC WINDS IN THE
TRIAD AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE RALEIGH
DURHAM AREA THROUGH 10 PM...AND ROCKY MOUNT/WILSON...AND
FAYETTEVILLE AROUND MIDNIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AIDING TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN A BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
THE RDU AREA SOUTHWARD TO FORT BRAGG. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
GLIDE SEWD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STRONG JET (NEAR 150KTS) DIGGING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE
UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO DEEP SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THIS DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL PULL COLDER AIR FARTHER
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ROTATING
SOUTHWARD FROM VA INTO NE NC WILL EVENTUALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NE PIEDMONT AND THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT DUSTING
ON THE TOP OF CARS OR WOODEN DECKS...BUT THE EXPECTED LIGHT PRECIP
INTENSITY AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND SUGGEST NO ACCUMULATION ON THE
GROUND OR ROAD SURFACES.

BLUSTERY NW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ADVECT A DRIER COLDER AIR MASS INTO
CENTRAL NC. THIS WIND SHOULD EVAPORATE THE BULK OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE
LEFTOVER FROM RECENT RAINFALL. THUS AS TEMPS DROP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE SCENARIO THOUGH COULD SEE A SLICK
SPOT OR TWO ON LESS TRAVELED ROADS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAINWATER
NORMALLY COLLECTS AND IS SHELTERED FROM THE WIND. -WSS

THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SNOW FLURRY OR SHOWER MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
OF RDU THROUGH LATE MORNING... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER... THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
INFLUENCE ON MUCH OF THE REGION AS IT WILL BE SLOW TO PULL OUT TO
THE NE. THE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY NE TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW
AND WEST WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 40S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WILL PRODUCE A CHILLY WIND CHILL IN THE
20S AND 30S THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 20S. -BADGETT

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND NOR`EASTER AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE /SFC HIGH/ BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
(WED) AND CAROLINAS (WED NIGHT). EXPECT HIGHS 40-45F...COOLEST NE
COASTAL PLAIN. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SUGGEST LOWS IN THE
LOWER/MID 20S WED NIGHT...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLY BY SUNRISE...ESP N/NW
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. IF UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS ARRIVE EARLY AND/OR
THICK ENOUGH...LOWS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WOULD
OTHERWISE BE THE CASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...

THU/THU NIGHT: THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT. GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
AIRMASS IN PLACE...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN
WILL OCCUR IN ORDER FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...ESP WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
GIVEN THAT WARM ADVECTION WILL BE BRIEF/WEAK AND LARGELY CONFINED TO
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...IN ADDITION TO THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 33-38F RANGE...COOLEST NW
AND WARMEST SE.

FRI-SAT: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST FRI/SAT...IN ASSOC/W COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...
AND IN ASSOC/W NEUTRAL ADVECTION...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD...AND A COLD ANTECEDENT AIRMASS ON SAT.

SUN-MON: SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY (BEYOND THE TYPICAL) PERSISTS WITH
REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...FORECAST
DETAILS CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED AT THIS TIME (BEYOND GUESSING). IN
GENERAL...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE /ATTENDANT LOW/ PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
EASTERN US...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
LATE MON/MON NIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONDITIONS AT THIS HOUR ARE GENERALLY SPLIT
BETWEEN VFR IN THE WEST WHERE IT IS CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND MVFR IN
THE EAST WHERE MORE MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS WITH VISIBILITIES EVERYWHERE
COMING IN AT 10 SM. THERE CONTINUE TO BE A FEW WIND GUSTS OUT THERE
UP TO 20 KTS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST WHICH MAKES SINCE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE INCREASES CLOSER TO THE LOW OFFSHORE.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND WILL STAY THAT WAY
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX AFTER 9Z. AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS
WILL BE PREVALENT AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR EVEN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES AS WE
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION BEING THE
NORTHEAST. ONE OTHER NOTE...PILOT REPORTS HAVE BEEN COMING IN AROUND
KRDU AND POINTS NORTH FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE ICING FROM 4-12 KFT.

LONG TERM: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA AND
THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...WSS/BADGETT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 270205
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
905 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK NORTH OF NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 905 PM MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING AS EVIDENT OF BLUSTERY NW SFC WINDS IN THE
TRIAD AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE RALEIGH
DURHAM AREA THROUGH 10 PM...AND ROCKY MOUNT/WILSON...AND
FAYETTEVILLE AROUND MIDNIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AIDING TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN A BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
THE RDU AREA SOUTHWARD TO FORT BRAGG. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
GLIDE SEWD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STRONG JET (NEAR 150KTS) DIGGING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE
UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO DEEP SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THIS DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL PULL COLDER AIR FARTHER
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ROTATING
SOUTHWARD FROM VA INTO NE NC WILL EVENTUALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NE PIEDMONT AND THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT DUSTING
ON THE TOP OF CARS OR WOODEN DECKS...BUT THE EXPECTED LIGHT PRECIP
INTENSITY AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND SUGGEST NO ACCUMULATION ON THE
GROUND OR ROAD SURFACES.

BLUSTERY NW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ADVECT A DRIER COLDER AIR MASS INTO
CENTRAL NC. THIS WIND SHOULD EVAPORATE THE BULK OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE
LEFTOVER FROM RECENT RAINFALL. THUS AS TEMPS DROP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE SCENARIO THOUGH COULD SEE A SLICK
SPOT OR TWO ON LESS TRAVELED ROADS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAINWATER
NORMALLY COLLECTS AND IS SHELTERED FROM THE WIND. -WSS

THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SNOW FLURRY OR SHOWER MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
OF RDU THROUGH LATE MORNING... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER... THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
INFLUENCE ON MUCH OF THE REGION AS IT WILL BE SLOW TO PULL OUT TO
THE NE. THE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY NE TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW
AND WEST WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 40S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WILL PRODUCE A CHILLY WIND CHILL IN THE
20S AND 30S THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 20S. -BADGETT

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND NOR`EASTER AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE /SFC HIGH/ BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
(WED) AND CAROLINAS (WED NIGHT). EXPECT HIGHS 40-45F...COOLEST NE
COASTAL PLAIN. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SUGGEST LOWS IN THE
LOWER/MID 20S WED NIGHT...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLY BY SUNRISE...ESP N/NW
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. IF UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS ARRIVE EARLY AND/OR
THICK ENOUGH...LOWS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WOULD
OTHERWISE BE THE CASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...

THU/THU NIGHT: THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT. GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
AIRMASS IN PLACE...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN
WILL OCCUR IN ORDER FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...ESP WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
GIVEN THAT WARM ADVECTION WILL BE BRIEF/WEAK AND LARGELY CONFINED TO
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...IN ADDITION TO THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 33-38F RANGE...COOLEST NW
AND WARMEST SE.

FRI-SAT: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST FRI/SAT...IN ASSOC/W COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...
AND IN ASSOC/W NEUTRAL ADVECTION...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD...AND A COLD ANTECEDENT AIRMASS ON SAT.

SUN-MON: SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY (BEYOND THE TYPICAL) PERSISTS WITH
REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...FORECAST
DETAILS CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED AT THIS TIME (BEYOND GUESSING). IN
GENERAL...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE /ATTENDANT LOW/ PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
EASTERN US...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
LATE MON/MON NIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM MONDAY...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WHILE
THIS TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA...MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS (MAYBE EVEN A FLURRY) WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE IN. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY TUESDAY
MORNING...LASTLY OVER THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY WINDS
MAY BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY ON TUESDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING BY THE
EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...WSS/BADGETT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 270205
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
905 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK NORTH OF NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 905 PM MONDAY...

COLD FRONT MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING AS EVIDENT OF BLUSTERY NW SFC WINDS IN THE
TRIAD AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE RALEIGH
DURHAM AREA THROUGH 10 PM...AND ROCKY MOUNT/WILSON...AND
FAYETTEVILLE AROUND MIDNIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AIDING TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN A BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
THE RDU AREA SOUTHWARD TO FORT BRAGG. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
GLIDE SEWD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STRONG JET (NEAR 150KTS) DIGGING
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE
UPPER TROUGH TO DEEPEN FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO DEEP SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THIS DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL PULL COLDER AIR FARTHER
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ROTATING
SOUTHWARD FROM VA INTO NE NC WILL EVENTUALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NE PIEDMONT AND THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT DUSTING
ON THE TOP OF CARS OR WOODEN DECKS...BUT THE EXPECTED LIGHT PRECIP
INTENSITY AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND SUGGEST NO ACCUMULATION ON THE
GROUND OR ROAD SURFACES.

BLUSTERY NW WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ADVECT A DRIER COLDER AIR MASS INTO
CENTRAL NC. THIS WIND SHOULD EVAPORATE THE BULK OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE
LEFTOVER FROM RECENT RAINFALL. THUS AS TEMPS DROP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE PIEDMONT TOWARD DAYBREAK...NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE SCENARIO THOUGH COULD SEE A SLICK
SPOT OR TWO ON LESS TRAVELED ROADS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAINWATER
NORMALLY COLLECTS AND IS SHELTERED FROM THE WIND. -WSS

THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SNOW FLURRY OR SHOWER MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
OF RDU THROUGH LATE MORNING... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER... THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
INFLUENCE ON MUCH OF THE REGION AS IT WILL BE SLOW TO PULL OUT TO
THE NE. THE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY NE TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW
AND WEST WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 40S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WILL PRODUCE A CHILLY WIND CHILL IN THE
20S AND 30S THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 20S. -BADGETT

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND NOR`EASTER AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE /SFC HIGH/ BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
(WED) AND CAROLINAS (WED NIGHT). EXPECT HIGHS 40-45F...COOLEST NE
COASTAL PLAIN. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SUGGEST LOWS IN THE
LOWER/MID 20S WED NIGHT...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLY BY SUNRISE...ESP N/NW
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. IF UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS ARRIVE EARLY AND/OR
THICK ENOUGH...LOWS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WOULD
OTHERWISE BE THE CASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...

THU/THU NIGHT: THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT. GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
AIRMASS IN PLACE...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN
WILL OCCUR IN ORDER FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...ESP WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
GIVEN THAT WARM ADVECTION WILL BE BRIEF/WEAK AND LARGELY CONFINED TO
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...IN ADDITION TO THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 33-38F RANGE...COOLEST NW
AND WARMEST SE.

FRI-SAT: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST FRI/SAT...IN ASSOC/W COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...
AND IN ASSOC/W NEUTRAL ADVECTION...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD...AND A COLD ANTECEDENT AIRMASS ON SAT.

SUN-MON: SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY (BEYOND THE TYPICAL) PERSISTS WITH
REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...FORECAST
DETAILS CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED AT THIS TIME (BEYOND GUESSING). IN
GENERAL...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE /ATTENDANT LOW/ PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
EASTERN US...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
LATE MON/MON NIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM MONDAY...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WHILE
THIS TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA...MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS (MAYBE EVEN A FLURRY) WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE IN. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY TUESDAY
MORNING...LASTLY OVER THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY WINDS
MAY BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY ON TUESDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING BY THE
EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...WSS/BADGETT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 262355
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK NORTH OF NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 257 PM MONDAY...

...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...
...BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE... MAINLY NE OF RDU WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT... WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

EXPLOSIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT WAS WELL UNDERWAY JUST OFF TO THE NE OF
THE CAPE HATTERAS SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
OVER OUR REGION SHIFTS EAST. FOR OUR REGION... THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH...
WHICH WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME
SCATTERED BUT LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
CENTRAL NC WELL INTO THE EVENING. QPF WILL BE SCATTERED AND LIGHT
(MAINLY ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO) IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WILL BE SLOW
TO COOL AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DELAY ANY POSSIBILITY OF THE POTENTIAL SNOW
FLAKE (WELL... O.K. MAYBE A SNOW FLURRY) UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN THE EAST. BEST TIMING TO SEE A FLURRY WOULD BE 300 AM TO MID
MORNING... AND NE OF RDU. THE WEST SHOULD DRY BEFORE ANY CHANCE OF A
FLURRY.

THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH COOLING
FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER DARK IN
THE NW PIEDMONT... THEN SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD REACHING THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT AROUND MIDNIGHT... THEN THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE
TONIGHT. THAT SAID... THE COLD AIR IS CHASING THE MOISTURE AND THIS
IS NOT AT SET UP AT ALL FOR ANY TYPE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. BY THE
TIME THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS ENOUGH FOR A SNOW FLAKE... THE BOUNDARY
AND NEAR SURFACE LAYERS WILL STILL BE TOO WARM. THEN... AFTER THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS ENOUGH... THE GROUND IS STILL WARM... ETC.

WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING... ENDING FROM
THE WEST OVER THE PIEDMONT BEFORE MIDNIGHT - PARTIAL CLEARING THERE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...
BECOMING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE NE. NO
ACCUMULATION. LOWS 27 NW TO 30 AROUND RDU AND 35 FROM FAY TO RWI.

THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SNOW FLURRY OR SHOWER MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
OF RDU THROUGH LATE MORNING... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER... THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
INFLUENCE ON MUCH OF THE REGION AS IT WILL BE SLOW TO PULL OUT TO
THE NE. THE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY NE TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW
AND WEST WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 40S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WILL PRODUCE A CHILLY WIND CHILL IN THE
20S AND 30S THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND NOR`EASTER AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE /SFC HIGH/ BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
(WED) AND CAROLINAS (WED NIGHT). EXPECT HIGHS 40-45F...COOLEST NE
COASTAL PLAIN. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SUGGEST LOWS IN THE
LOWER/MID 20S WED NIGHT...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLY BY SUNRISE...ESP N/NW
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. IF UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS ARRIVE EARLY AND/OR
THICK ENOUGH...LOWS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WOULD
OTHERWISE BE THE CASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...

THU/THU NIGHT: THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT. GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
AIRMASS IN PLACE...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN
WILL OCCUR IN ORDER FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...ESP WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
GIVEN THAT WARM ADVECTION WILL BE BRIEF/WEAK AND LARGELY CONFINED TO
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...IN ADDITION TO THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 33-38F RANGE...COOLEST NW
AND WARMEST SE.

FRI-SAT: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST FRI/SAT...IN ASSOC/W COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...
AND IN ASSOC/W NEUTRAL ADVECTION...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD...AND A COLD ANTECEDENT AIRMASS ON SAT.

SUN-MON: SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY (BEYOND THE TYPICAL) PERSISTS WITH
REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...FORECAST
DETAILS CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED AT THIS TIME (BEYOND GUESSING). IN
GENERAL...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE /ATTENDANT LOW/ PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
EASTERN US...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
LATE MON/MON NIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM MONDAY...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WHILE
THIS TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA...MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS (MAYBE EVEN A FLURRY) WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE IN. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY TUESDAY
MORNING...LASTLY OVER THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY WINDS
MAY BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY ON TUESDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING BY THE
EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 261958
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
257 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK NORTH OF NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 257 PM MONDAY...

...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...
...BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE... MAINLY NE OF RDU WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT... WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

EXPLOSIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT WAS WELL UNDERWAY JUST OFF TO THE NE OF
THE CAPE HATTERAS SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
OVER OUR REGION SHIFTS EAST. FOR OUR REGION... THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH...
WHICH WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME
SCATTERED BUT LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
CENTRAL NC WELL INTO THE EVENING. QPF WILL BE SCATTERED AND LIGHT
(MAINLY ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO) IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WILL BE SLOW
TO COOL AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DELAY ANY POSSIBILITY OF THE POTENTIAL SNOW
FLAKE (WELL... O.K. MAYBE A SNOW FLURRY) UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN THE EAST. BEST TIMING TO SEE A FLURRY WOULD BE 300 AM TO MID
MORNING... AND NE OF RDU. THE WEST SHOULD DRY BEFORE ANY CHANCE OF A
FLURRY.

THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH COOLING
FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER DARK IN
THE NW PIEDMONT... THEN SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD REACHING THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT AROUND MIDNIGHT... THEN THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE
TONIGHT. THAT SAID... THE COLD AIR IS CHASING THE MOISTURE AND THIS
IS NOT AT SET UP AT ALL FOR ANY TYPE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. BY THE
TIME THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS ENOUGH FOR A SNOW FLAKE... THE BOUNDARY
AND NEAR SURFACE LAYERS WILL STILL BE TOO WARM. THEN... AFTER THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS ENOUGH... THE GROUND IS STILL WARM... ETC.

WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING... ENDING FROM
THE WEST OVER THE PIEDMONT BEFORE MIDNIGHT - PARTIAL CLEARING THERE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...
BECOMING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE NE. NO
ACCUMULATION. LOWS 27 NW TO 30 AROUND RDU AND 35 FROM FAY TO RWI.

THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SNOW FLURRY OR SHOWER MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
OF RDU THROUGH LATE MORNING... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER... THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
INFLUENCE ON MUCH OF THE REGION AS IT WILL BE SLOW TO PULL OUT TO
THE NE. THE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY NE TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW
AND WEST WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 40S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WILL PRODUCE A CHILLY WIND CHILL IN THE
20S AND 30S THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND NOR`EASTER AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE /SFC HIGH/ BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
(WED) AND CAROLINAS (WED NIGHT). EXPECT HIGHS 40-45F...COOLEST NE
COASTAL PLAIN. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SUGGEST LOWS IN THE
LOWER/MID 20S WED NIGHT...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLY BY SUNRISE...ESP N/NW
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. IF UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS ARRIVE EARLY AND/OR
THICK ENOUGH...LOWS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WOULD
OTHERWISE BE THE CASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...

THU/THU NIGHT: THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT. GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
AIRMASS IN PLACE...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN
WILL OCCUR IN ORDER FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...ESP WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
GIVEN THAT WARM ADVECTION WILL BE BRIEF/WEAK AND LARGELY CONFINED TO
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...IN ADDITION TO THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 33-38F RANGE...COOLEST NW
AND WARMEST SE.

FRI-SAT: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST FRI/SAT...IN ASSOC/W COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...
AND IN ASSOC/W NEUTRAL ADVECTION...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD...AND A COLD ANTECEDENT AIRMASS ON SAT.

SUN-MON: SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY (BEYOND THE TYPICAL) PERSISTS WITH
REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...FORECAST
DETAILS CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED AT THIS TIME (BEYOND GUESSING). IN
GENERAL...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE /ATTENDANT LOW/ PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
EASTERN US...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
LATE MON/MON NIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL TRANSFER OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS STORM WILL LIFT UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY.

MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE WELL NE OF OUR REGION. YET...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. VSBYS
SHOULD NOT BE LIMITED TO UNDER VFR IN THE LIGHT SHOWERS. NW WINDS 10-
15KT EXPECTED. MVFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE NE
INCLUDING KRDU AND KRWI... WITH A POSSIBLE SPRINKLE OR FLURRY.

MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY AS THE STORM TO OUR NE PULLS
AWAY.

LONG TERM: ONCE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON THE HEELS OF THIS
SYSTEM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FORM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE EXPECTED AGAIN.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 261958
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
257 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK NORTH OF NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 257 PM MONDAY...

...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...
...BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE... MAINLY NE OF RDU WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT... WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

EXPLOSIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT WAS WELL UNDERWAY JUST OFF TO THE NE OF
THE CAPE HATTERAS SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
OVER OUR REGION SHIFTS EAST. FOR OUR REGION... THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH...
WHICH WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME
SCATTERED BUT LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
CENTRAL NC WELL INTO THE EVENING. QPF WILL BE SCATTERED AND LIGHT
(MAINLY ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO) IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WILL BE SLOW
TO COOL AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DELAY ANY POSSIBILITY OF THE POTENTIAL SNOW
FLAKE (WELL... O.K. MAYBE A SNOW FLURRY) UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN THE EAST. BEST TIMING TO SEE A FLURRY WOULD BE 300 AM TO MID
MORNING... AND NE OF RDU. THE WEST SHOULD DRY BEFORE ANY CHANCE OF A
FLURRY.

THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH COOLING
FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER DARK IN
THE NW PIEDMONT... THEN SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD REACHING THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT AROUND MIDNIGHT... THEN THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE
TONIGHT. THAT SAID... THE COLD AIR IS CHASING THE MOISTURE AND THIS
IS NOT AT SET UP AT ALL FOR ANY TYPE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. BY THE
TIME THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS ENOUGH FOR A SNOW FLAKE... THE BOUNDARY
AND NEAR SURFACE LAYERS WILL STILL BE TOO WARM. THEN... AFTER THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS ENOUGH... THE GROUND IS STILL WARM... ETC.

WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING... ENDING FROM
THE WEST OVER THE PIEDMONT BEFORE MIDNIGHT - PARTIAL CLEARING THERE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...
BECOMING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE NE. NO
ACCUMULATION. LOWS 27 NW TO 30 AROUND RDU AND 35 FROM FAY TO RWI.

THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SNOW FLURRY OR SHOWER MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
OF RDU THROUGH LATE MORNING... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER... THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
INFLUENCE ON MUCH OF THE REGION AS IT WILL BE SLOW TO PULL OUT TO
THE NE. THE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY NE TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW
AND WEST WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 40S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WILL PRODUCE A CHILLY WIND CHILL IN THE
20S AND 30S THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND NOR`EASTER AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE /SFC HIGH/ BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
(WED) AND CAROLINAS (WED NIGHT). EXPECT HIGHS 40-45F...COOLEST NE
COASTAL PLAIN. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SUGGEST LOWS IN THE
LOWER/MID 20S WED NIGHT...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLY BY SUNRISE...ESP N/NW
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. IF UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS ARRIVE EARLY AND/OR
THICK ENOUGH...LOWS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WOULD
OTHERWISE BE THE CASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...

THU/THU NIGHT: THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT. GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
AIRMASS IN PLACE...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN
WILL OCCUR IN ORDER FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...ESP WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
GIVEN THAT WARM ADVECTION WILL BE BRIEF/WEAK AND LARGELY CONFINED TO
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...IN ADDITION TO THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 33-38F RANGE...COOLEST NW
AND WARMEST SE.

FRI-SAT: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST FRI/SAT...IN ASSOC/W COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...
AND IN ASSOC/W NEUTRAL ADVECTION...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD...AND A COLD ANTECEDENT AIRMASS ON SAT.

SUN-MON: SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY (BEYOND THE TYPICAL) PERSISTS WITH
REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...FORECAST
DETAILS CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED AT THIS TIME (BEYOND GUESSING). IN
GENERAL...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE /ATTENDANT LOW/ PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
EASTERN US...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
LATE MON/MON NIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL TRANSFER OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS STORM WILL LIFT UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY.

MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE WELL NE OF OUR REGION. YET...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. VSBYS
SHOULD NOT BE LIMITED TO UNDER VFR IN THE LIGHT SHOWERS. NW WINDS 10-
15KT EXPECTED. MVFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE NE
INCLUDING KRDU AND KRWI... WITH A POSSIBLE SPRINKLE OR FLURRY.

MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY AS THE STORM TO OUR NE PULLS
AWAY.

LONG TERM: ONCE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON THE HEELS OF THIS
SYSTEM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FORM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE EXPECTED AGAIN.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...BADGETT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 261841
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
141 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...

...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...
...A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY POSSIBLE... MAINLY NE OF RDU
OVERNIGHT... NO WITH NO ACCUMULATION.

THE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD... WITH EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FOR OUR REGION... THIS WILL
OCCUR TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS
ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. H5 HEIGHT FALLS
WERE ON THE ORDER OF 120+ METERS FROM GA THROUGH THE CAROLINA`S.
THERE HAVE BEEN PLENTY OF QUICK MOVING RAIN SHOWERS WITH EVEN SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LIFT OUT AHEAD OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON... AND AS IT DOES SO... THE MAIN AREA OF LIFT WILL
SHIFT TO OUR NE ZONES. EXPLOSIVE SURFACE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN
OFFSHORE OF NC THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE GULF STREAM. THIS WAS OCCURRING AS THE ENERGY/LIFT FROM THE
NW TRANSFERS TO THE GULF STREAM AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.

WE WILL SHIFT THE LIKELY POP OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND REPLACE WITH 20-30 POP FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH RANGING INTO THE 50S SOUTH.

UPDATE TO TONIGHT... THERE IS STILL A FLEETING CHANCE OF BRIEF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS... MAINLY OVER THE NE CORRIDOR OF NC THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD ATTRIBUTED TO THE COLD DRY AIR SURGING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM "CHASING THE MOISTURE". NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT... LOWS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 32 REGARDLESS. -BADGETT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 300 AM TODAY... INFRARED SATELLITE
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST OVER EASTERN KY AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE
WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC TO AND
RESULT IN A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. CENTRAL NC WILL NOT HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE EXTENSIVE
PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE OCEAN SO THE WAVE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE THE CWA LATER TODAY WILL NOT
BRING MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WHAT IT DOES BRING WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS TEH SOUTH.
TIMING IS TRICKY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE DIFFERENT PERIODS
OF RAIN AS SMALLER WAVE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINING
POCKETS OF FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. THERMODYNAMICS WILL ALSO GET BETTER
AFTER 18Z AND MODELS HINT AT SOME INSTABILITY THROUGH 00Z WITH VERY
SKINNY...MOSTLY ELEVATED CAPE AND GOOD LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER 00Z THE LOW REALLY BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF OF THE COAST AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL NC WILL TIGHTEN UP CAUSING BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH BREEZY WINDS AND SOME
CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE EAST...RADIATIONAL COOLING PROSPECTS WILL
NOT BE AS GOOD AS BACK TO THE WEST WHERE BOTH WIND AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S
WEST TO LOWER 30S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

BY TUESDAY MORNING...LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
HAVE EVOLVED INTO A MATURE NOR`EASTER AND HAVE GROWN CONSIDERABLY IN
SIZE. CENTRAL NC WILL SET UP JUST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE STILL AFFECTING EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE IMPACTS OF THIS WILL BE MINUTE...IF
SATURATION UP THROUGH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE HOLDS ON LONG
ENOUGH...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SNOW FLURRIES OR A BRIEF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ON TUESDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THIS VERY BRIEF
ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE STORM EVENTUALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST TO PUT
CENTRAL NC IN THE COLD AND DRY SECTOR. THE EFFECT OF ALL THAT COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. COUPLE THAT WITH A BREEZY
NORTHERLY WIND IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THAN IT WILL THE 40S. DRYING WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND NOR`EASTER AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE /SFC HIGH/ BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
(WED) AND CAROLINAS (WED NIGHT). EXPECT HIGHS 40-45F...COOLEST NE
COASTAL PLAIN. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SUGGEST LOWS IN THE
LOWER/MID 20S WED NIGHT...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLY BY SUNRISE...ESP N/NW
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. IF UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS ARRIVE EARLY AND/OR
THICK ENOUGH...LOWS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WOULD
OTHERWISE BE THE CASE.

THU/THU NIGHT: THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT. GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
AIRMASS IN PLACE...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN
WILL OCCUR IN ORDER FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...ESP WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
GIVEN THAT WARM ADVECTION WILL BE BRIEF/WEAK AND LARGELY CONFINED TO
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...IN ADDITION TO THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 33-38F RANGE...COOLEST NW
AND WARMEST SE.

FRI-SAT: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST FRI/SAT...IN ASSOC/W COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...
AND IN ASSOC/W NEUTRAL ADVECTION...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD...AND A COLD ANTECEDENT AIRMASS ON SAT.

SUN-MON: SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY (BEYOND THE TYPICAL) PERSISTS WITH
REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...FORECAST
DETAILS CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED AT THIS TIME (BEYOND GUESSING). IN
GENERAL...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE /ATTENDANT LOW/ PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
EASTERN US...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
LATE MON/MON NIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL TRANSFER OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS STORM WILL LIFT UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY.

MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE WELL NE OF OUR REGION. YET...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. VSBYS
SHOULD NOT BE LIMITED TO UNDER VFR IN THE LIGHT SHOWERS. NW WINDS 10-
15KT EXPECTED. MVFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE NE
INCLUDING KRDU AND KRWI... WITH A POSSIBLE SPRINKLE OR FLURRY.

MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY AS THE STORM TO OUR NE PULLS
AWAY.

LONG TERM: ONCE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON THE HEELS OF THIS
SYSTEM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FORM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE EXPECTED AGAIN.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 261841
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
141 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...

...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...
...A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY POSSIBLE... MAINLY NE OF RDU
OVERNIGHT... NO WITH NO ACCUMULATION.

THE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD... WITH EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FOR OUR REGION... THIS WILL
OCCUR TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS
ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. H5 HEIGHT FALLS
WERE ON THE ORDER OF 120+ METERS FROM GA THROUGH THE CAROLINA`S.
THERE HAVE BEEN PLENTY OF QUICK MOVING RAIN SHOWERS WITH EVEN SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LIFT OUT AHEAD OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON... AND AS IT DOES SO... THE MAIN AREA OF LIFT WILL
SHIFT TO OUR NE ZONES. EXPLOSIVE SURFACE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN
OFFSHORE OF NC THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE GULF STREAM. THIS WAS OCCURRING AS THE ENERGY/LIFT FROM THE
NW TRANSFERS TO THE GULF STREAM AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.

WE WILL SHIFT THE LIKELY POP OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND REPLACE WITH 20-30 POP FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH RANGING INTO THE 50S SOUTH.

UPDATE TO TONIGHT... THERE IS STILL A FLEETING CHANCE OF BRIEF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS... MAINLY OVER THE NE CORRIDOR OF NC THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD ATTRIBUTED TO THE COLD DRY AIR SURGING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM "CHASING THE MOISTURE". NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT... LOWS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 32 REGARDLESS. -BADGETT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 300 AM TODAY... INFRARED SATELLITE
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST OVER EASTERN KY AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE
WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC TO AND
RESULT IN A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. CENTRAL NC WILL NOT HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE EXTENSIVE
PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE OCEAN SO THE WAVE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE THE CWA LATER TODAY WILL NOT
BRING MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WHAT IT DOES BRING WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS TEH SOUTH.
TIMING IS TRICKY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE DIFFERENT PERIODS
OF RAIN AS SMALLER WAVE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINING
POCKETS OF FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. THERMODYNAMICS WILL ALSO GET BETTER
AFTER 18Z AND MODELS HINT AT SOME INSTABILITY THROUGH 00Z WITH VERY
SKINNY...MOSTLY ELEVATED CAPE AND GOOD LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER 00Z THE LOW REALLY BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF OF THE COAST AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL NC WILL TIGHTEN UP CAUSING BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH BREEZY WINDS AND SOME
CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE EAST...RADIATIONAL COOLING PROSPECTS WILL
NOT BE AS GOOD AS BACK TO THE WEST WHERE BOTH WIND AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S
WEST TO LOWER 30S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

BY TUESDAY MORNING...LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
HAVE EVOLVED INTO A MATURE NOR`EASTER AND HAVE GROWN CONSIDERABLY IN
SIZE. CENTRAL NC WILL SET UP JUST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE STILL AFFECTING EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE IMPACTS OF THIS WILL BE MINUTE...IF
SATURATION UP THROUGH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE HOLDS ON LONG
ENOUGH...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SNOW FLURRIES OR A BRIEF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ON TUESDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THIS VERY BRIEF
ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE STORM EVENTUALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST TO PUT
CENTRAL NC IN THE COLD AND DRY SECTOR. THE EFFECT OF ALL THAT COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. COUPLE THAT WITH A BREEZY
NORTHERLY WIND IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THAN IT WILL THE 40S. DRYING WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND NOR`EASTER AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE /SFC HIGH/ BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
(WED) AND CAROLINAS (WED NIGHT). EXPECT HIGHS 40-45F...COOLEST NE
COASTAL PLAIN. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SUGGEST LOWS IN THE
LOWER/MID 20S WED NIGHT...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLY BY SUNRISE...ESP N/NW
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. IF UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS ARRIVE EARLY AND/OR
THICK ENOUGH...LOWS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WOULD
OTHERWISE BE THE CASE.

THU/THU NIGHT: THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT. GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
AIRMASS IN PLACE...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN
WILL OCCUR IN ORDER FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...ESP WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
GIVEN THAT WARM ADVECTION WILL BE BRIEF/WEAK AND LARGELY CONFINED TO
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...IN ADDITION TO THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 33-38F RANGE...COOLEST NW
AND WARMEST SE.

FRI-SAT: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST FRI/SAT...IN ASSOC/W COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...
AND IN ASSOC/W NEUTRAL ADVECTION...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD...AND A COLD ANTECEDENT AIRMASS ON SAT.

SUN-MON: SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY (BEYOND THE TYPICAL) PERSISTS WITH
REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...FORECAST
DETAILS CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED AT THIS TIME (BEYOND GUESSING). IN
GENERAL...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE /ATTENDANT LOW/ PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
EASTERN US...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
LATE MON/MON NIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL TRANSFER OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS STORM WILL LIFT UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY.

MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE WELL NE OF OUR REGION. YET...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. VSBYS
SHOULD NOT BE LIMITED TO UNDER VFR IN THE LIGHT SHOWERS. NW WINDS 10-
15KT EXPECTED. MVFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE NE
INCLUDING KRDU AND KRWI... WITH A POSSIBLE SPRINKLE OR FLURRY.

MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY AS THE STORM TO OUR NE PULLS
AWAY.

LONG TERM: ONCE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON THE HEELS OF THIS
SYSTEM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FORM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE EXPECTED AGAIN.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...BADGETT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 261754
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1245 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...

...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...
...A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY POSSIBLE... MAINLY NE OF RDU
OVERNIGHT... NO WITH NO ACCUMULATION.

THE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD... WITH EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FOR OUR REGION... THIS WILL
OCCUR TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS
ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. H5 HEIGHT FALLS
WERE ON THE ORDER OF 120+ METERS FROM GA THROUGH THE CAROLINA`S.
THERE HAVE BEEN PLENTY OF QUICK MOVING RAIN SHOWERS WITH EVEN SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LIFT OUT AHEAD OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON... AND AS IT DOES SO... THE MAIN AREA OF LIFT WILL
SHIFT TO OUR NE ZONES. EXPLOSIVE SURFACE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN
OFFSHORE OF NC THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE GULF STREAM. THIS WAS OCCURRING AS THE ENERGY/LIFT FROM THE
NW TRANSFERS TO THE GULF STREAM AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.

WE WILL SHIFT THE LIKELY POP OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND REPLACE WITH 20-30 POP FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH RANGING INTO THE 50S SOUTH.

UPDATE TO TONIGHT... THERE IS STILL A FLEETING CHANCE OF BRIEF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS... MAINLY OVER THE NE CORRIDOR OF NC THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD ATTRIBUTED TO THE COLD DRY AIR SURGING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM "CHASING THE MOISTURE". NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT... LOWS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 32 REGARDLESS. -BADGETT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 300 AM TODAY... INFRARED SATELLITE
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST OVER EASTERN KY AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE
WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC TO AND
RESULT IN A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. CENTRAL NC WILL NOT HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE EXTENSIVE
PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE OCEAN SO THE WAVE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE THE CWA LATER TODAY WILL NOT
BRING MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WHAT IT DOES BRING WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS TEH SOUTH.
TIMING IS TRICKY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE DIFFERENT PERIODS
OF RAIN AS SMALLER WAVE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINING
POCKETS OF FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. THERMODYNAMICS WILL ALSO GET BETTER
AFTER 18Z AND MODELS HINT AT SOME INSTABILITY THROUGH 00Z WITH VERY
SKINNY...MOSTLY ELEVATED CAPE AND GOOD LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER 00Z THE LOW REALLY BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF OF THE COAST AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL NC WILL TIGHTEN UP CAUSING BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH BREEZY WINDS AND SOME
CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE EAST...RADIATIONAL COOLING PROSPECTS WILL
NOT BE AS GOOD AS BACK TO THE WEST WHERE BOTH WIND AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S
WEST TO LOWER 30S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

BY TUESDAY MORNING...LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
HAVE EVOLVED INTO A MATURE NOR`EASTER AND HAVE GROWN CONSIDERABLY IN
SIZE. CENTRAL NC WILL SET UP JUST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE STILL AFFECTING EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE IMPACTS OF THIS WILL BE MINUTE...IF
SATURATION UP THROUGH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE HOLDS ON LONG
ENOUGH...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SNOW FLURRIES OR A BRIEF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ON TUESDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THIS VERY BRIEF
ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE STORM EVENTUALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST TO PUT
CENTRAL NC IN THE COLD AND DRY SECTOR. THE EFFECT OF ALL THAT COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. COUPLE THAT WITH A BREEZY
NORTHERLY WIND IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THAN IT WILL THE 40S. DRYING WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM MONDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: QUIET WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SHIFTING OVERHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. COLUMN IS
STABLE AND FAIRLY DRY WED... SO EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. BELOW-
NORMAL THICKNESSES (BY 25-30 M) AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT
COOL HIGHS OF 42-47. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN WED
NIGHT... WITH A FLATTENING AND ACCELERATING WRLY FLOW ALOFT AND
INITIALLY WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE HIGH CLOUDS MAY TAKE THE
EDGE OFF AN OTHERWISE GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING... WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS... BUT STILL EXPECT CHILLY
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 20S.

THU/THU NIGHT: THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE AT PRECIP... ALTHOUGH
SPECIFIC TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION AS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE. THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE THEN
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC STATES -- TRACKING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE POLAR LOW OVER HUDSON BAY -- WHILE ITS CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE OH VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC COAST. GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUD BASES STEADILY LOWERING THU MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE WSW... PUSHING PW VALUES UP...
ALTHOUGH THEY PEAK AT JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL VALUES... WITH A
LINGERING DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. MOISTURE IS
DEEPEST AND MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF... HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND ITS DEEPER WAVE
GENERATES MORE QPF MUCH LATER (THU EVENING/NIGHT) COMPARED TO THE
LIGHTER/EARLIER GFS (BEST PRECIP CHANCES THU MORNING). WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE ECMWF... WHICH HAS DONE BETTER SHOWING DEEPER WAVES IN
RECENT WEEKS... BUT WILL KEEP POPS NO GREATER THAN 20-30% LATE THU
THROUGH THU NIGHT... FOCUSED ON THE EASTERN CWA. OVERALL MOISTURE
INFLUX DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE
THAN LIGHT QPF. SURFACE WET BULBS SHOULD BE INCHING ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK BY THE TIME PRECIP BEGINS... AND THE LATER ARRIVAL
TIME SHOULD ENSURE THAT TEMPS THU NIGHT STAY MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
EVEN SO... WE`RE LIKELY TO SEE DRYING ALOFT THU NIGHT AFTER THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH... WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE NON-LIQUID
PRECIP THREAT ANYWAY. TOTAL QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT... UNDER A QUARTER
INCH. HIGHS THU 47-52. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.

FRI-SUN: THE POLAR FRONT DROPS TO OUR SOUTH FRI... AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES SLIP BACK TO AROUND 20 M BELOW NORMAL... YIELDING BELOW-
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S DESPITE FAIR SKIES AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE
MID-UPPER 20S. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR SAT/SUN AS THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN IMPORTANT WAYS. BOTH HAVE A POLAR
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY AND ANOTHER LOW OVER NRN BAJA EARLY
SAT. THE GFS REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE POLAR STREAM... TAKING YET
ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MIDWEST THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC THROUGH SUN... BRINGING ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS LIGHT PRECIP TO CENTRAL NC SAT (LIMITED BY
THE WEAK MOISTURE RETURN). THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE
FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM... EASING THE BAJA LOW SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD INTO NW MEXICO WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE NW
GULF... WHILE SRN STREAM ENERGY BEGINS TO SHEARS ENE TOWARD NC. THE
LATTER SOLUTION IS WARMER AND DRIER BUT STARTS TO BRING IN MOIST
OVERRUNNING FLOW BY LATE SUN. GIVEN THIS DISPARITY... PREFER JUST A
SMALL CHANCE POP ON SUN FOR NOW... WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW
NORMAL. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL TRANSFER OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS STORM WILL LIFT UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY.

MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE LIFT WILL BE WELL NE OF OUR REGION. YET...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. VSBYS
SHOULD NOT BE LIMITED TO UNDER VFR IN THE LIGHT SHOWERS. NW WINDS 10-
15KT EXPECTED. MVFR CIGS SHOULD LINGER OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE NE
INCLUDING KRDU AND KRWI... WITH A POSSIBLE SPRINKLE OR FLURRY.

MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR TUESDAY AS THE STORM TO OUR NE PULLS
AWAY.

LONG TERM: ONCE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON THE HEELS OF THIS
SYSTEM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FORM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE EXPECTED AGAIN.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 261644
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1047 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1047 AM MONDAY...

...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...
...A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY POSSIBLE... MAINLY NE OF RDU
OVERNIGHT... NO WITH NO ACCUMULATION.

THE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD... WITH EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FOR OUR REGION... THIS WILL
OCCUR TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS
ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. H5 HEIGHT FALLS
WERE ON THE ORDER OF 120+ METERS FROM GA THROUGH THE CAROLINA`S.
THERE HAVE BEEN PLENTY OF QUICK MOVING RAIN SHOWERS WITH EVEN SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LIFT OUT AHEAD OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON... AND AS IT DOES SO... THE MAIN AREA OF LIFT WILL
SHIFT TO OUR NE ZONES. EXPLOSIVE SURFACE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN
OFFSHORE OF NC THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE GULF STREAM. THIS WAS OCCURRING AS THE ENERGY/LIFT FROM THE
NW TRANSFERS TO THE GULF STREAM AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.

WE WILL SHIFT THE LIKELY POP OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND REPLACE WITH 20-30 POP FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH RANGING INTO THE 50S SOUTH.

UPDATE TO TONIGHT... THERE IS STILL A FLEETING CHANCE OF BRIEF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS... MAINLY OVER THE NE CORRIDOR OF NC THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD ATTRIBUTED TO THE COLD DRY AIR SURGING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM "CHASING THE MOISTURE". NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT... LOWS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 32 REGARDLESS. -BADGETT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 300 AM TODAY... INFRARED SATELLITE
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST OVER EASTERN KY AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE
WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC TO AND
RESULT IN A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. CENTRAL NC WILL NOT HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE EXTENSIVE
PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE OCEAN SO THE WAVE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE THE CWA LATER TODAY WILL NOT
BRING MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WHAT IT DOES BRING WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS TEH SOUTH.
TIMING IS TRICKY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE DIFFERENT PERIODS
OF RAIN AS SMALLER WAVE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINING
POCKETS OF FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. THERMODYNAMICS WILL ALSO GET BETTER
AFTER 18Z AND MODELS HINT AT SOME INSTABILITY THROUGH 00Z WITH VERY
SKINNY...MOSTLY ELEVATED CAPE AND GOOD LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER 00Z THE LOW REALLY BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF OF THE COAST AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL NC WILL TIGHTEN UP CAUSING BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH BREEZY WINDS AND SOME
CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE EAST...RADIATIONAL COOLING PROSPECTS WILL
NOT BE AS GOOD AS BACK TO THE WEST WHERE BOTH WIND AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S
WEST TO LOWER 30S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

BY TUESDAY MORNING...LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
HAVE EVOLVED INTO A MATURE NOR`EASTER AND HAVE GROWN CONSIDERABLY IN
SIZE. CENTRAL NC WILL SET UP JUST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE STILL AFFECTING EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE IMPACTS OF THIS WILL BE MINUTE...IF
SATURATION UP THROUGH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE HOLDS ON LONG
ENOUGH...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SNOW FLURRIES OR A BRIEF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ON TUESDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THIS VERY BRIEF
ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE STORM EVENTUALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST TO PUT
CENTRAL NC IN THE COLD AND DRY SECTOR. THE EFFECT OF ALL THAT COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. COUPLE THAT WITH A BREEZY
NORTHERLY WIND IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THAN IT WILL THE 40S. DRYING WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM MONDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: QUIET WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SHIFTING OVERHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. COLUMN IS
STABLE AND FAIRLY DRY WED... SO EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. BELOW-
NORMAL THICKNESSES (BY 25-30 M) AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT
COOL HIGHS OF 42-47. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN WED
NIGHT... WITH A FLATTENING AND ACCELERATING WRLY FLOW ALOFT AND
INITIALLY WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE HIGH CLOUDS MAY TAKE THE
EDGE OFF AN OTHERWISE GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING... WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS... BUT STILL EXPECT CHILLY
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 20S.

THU/THU NIGHT: THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE AT PRECIP... ALTHOUGH
SPECIFIC TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION AS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE. THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE THEN
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC STATES -- TRACKING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE POLAR LOW OVER HUDSON BAY -- WHILE ITS CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE OH VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC COAST. GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUD BASES STEADILY LOWERING THU MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE WSW... PUSHING PW VALUES UP...
ALTHOUGH THEY PEAK AT JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL VALUES... WITH A
LINGERING DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. MOISTURE IS
DEEPEST AND MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF... HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND ITS DEEPER WAVE
GENERATES MORE QPF MUCH LATER (THU EVENING/NIGHT) COMPARED TO THE
LIGHTER/EARLIER GFS (BEST PRECIP CHANCES THU MORNING). WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE ECMWF... WHICH HAS DONE BETTER SHOWING DEEPER WAVES IN
RECENT WEEKS... BUT WILL KEEP POPS NO GREATER THAN 20-30% LATE THU
THROUGH THU NIGHT... FOCUSED ON THE EASTERN CWA. OVERALL MOISTURE
INFLUX DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE
THAN LIGHT QPF. SURFACE WET BULBS SHOULD BE INCHING ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK BY THE TIME PRECIP BEGINS... AND THE LATER ARRIVAL
TIME SHOULD ENSURE THAT TEMPS THU NIGHT STAY MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
EVEN SO... WE`RE LIKELY TO SEE DRYING ALOFT THU NIGHT AFTER THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH... WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE NON-LIQUID
PRECIP THREAT ANYWAY. TOTAL QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT... UNDER A QUARTER
INCH. HIGHS THU 47-52. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.

FRI-SUN: THE POLAR FRONT DROPS TO OUR SOUTH FRI... AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES SLIP BACK TO AROUND 20 M BELOW NORMAL... YIELDING BELOW-
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S DESPITE FAIR SKIES AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE
MID-UPPER 20S. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR SAT/SUN AS THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN IMPORTANT WAYS. BOTH HAVE A POLAR
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY AND ANOTHER LOW OVER NRN BAJA EARLY
SAT. THE GFS REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE POLAR STREAM... TAKING YET
ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MIDWEST THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC THROUGH SUN... BRINGING ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS LIGHT PRECIP TO CENTRAL NC SAT (LIMITED BY
THE WEAK MOISTURE RETURN). THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE
FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM... EASING THE BAJA LOW SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD INTO NW MEXICO WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE NW
GULF... WHILE SRN STREAM ENERGY BEGINS TO SHEARS ENE TOWARD NC. THE
LATTER SOLUTION IS WARMER AND DRIER BUT STARTS TO BRING IN MOIST
OVERRUNNING FLOW BY LATE SUN. GIVEN THIS DISPARITY... PREFER JUST A
SMALL CHANCE POP ON SUN FOR NOW... WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW
NORMAL. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVERSPREADING THE KRDU
AREA THIS MORNING WITH A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND LIGHT RAIN
WILL AFFECT KRWI LATER THIS MORNING. A GAP IN PRECIP WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH LATER TODAY...AGAIN
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THROWN IN.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN THIS MORNING BUT SLOWLY AND
CONDITIONS MAY STAY VFR FOR A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME TODAY.
NORTHERN SITES ARE MOST LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE.
RELATIVELY CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP TO 5-10 KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST TODAY. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT GUSTINESS TO PICK UP
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE POSSIBLE. THESE WILL
SUBSIDE GENERALLY AFTER 6Z BUT MAY HANG ON FOR A WHILE LONGER THAN
THAT IN THE EAST. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...SOME
SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY IN THE EAST. SNOW WILL
NOT ACCUMULATE AND SHOULD CAUSE LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS.

LONG TERM: ONCE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON THE HEELS OF THIS
SYSTEM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FORM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 261606
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1047 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1047 AM MONDAY...

...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...
...A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY POSSIBLE... MAINLY NE OF RDU
OVERNIGHT... NO WITH NO ACCUMULATION.

THE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD... WITH EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FOR OUR REGION... THIS WILL
OCCUR TO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS
ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. H5 HEIGHT FALLS
WERE ON THE ORDER OF 120+ METERS FROM GA THROUGH THE CAROLINA`S.
THERE HAVE BEEN PLENTY OF QUICK MOVING RAIN SHOWERS WITH EVEN SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LIFT OUT AHEAD OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON... AND AS IT DOES SO... THE MAIN AREA OF LIFT WILL
SHIFT TO OUR NE ZONES. EXPLOSIVE SURFACE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN
OFFSHORE OF NC THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE GULF STREAM. THIS WAS OCCURRING AS THE ENERGY/LIFT FROM THE
NW TRANSFERS TO THE GULF STREAM AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.

WE WILL SHIFT THE LIKELY POP OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND REPLACE WITH 20-30 POP FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH RANGING INTO THE 50S SOUTH.

UPDATE TO TONIGHT... THERE IS STILL A FLEETING CHANCE OF BRIEF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS... MAINLY OVER THE NE CORRIDOR OF NC THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD ATTRIBUTED TO THE COLD DRY AIR SURGING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM "CHASING THE MOISTURE". NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT... LOWS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 32 REGARDLESS. -BADGETT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 300 AM TODAY... INFRARED SATELLITE
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST OVER EASTERN KY AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE
WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC TO AND
RESULT IN A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. CENTRAL NC WILL NOT HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE EXTENSIVE
PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE OCEAN SO THE WAVE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE THE CWA LATER TODAY WILL NOT
BRING MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WHAT IT DOES BRING WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS TEH SOUTH.
TIMING IS TRICKY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE DIFFERENT PERIODS
OF RAIN AS SMALLER WAVE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINING
POCKETS OF FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. THERMODYNAMICS WILL ALSO GET BETTER
AFTER 18Z AND MODELS HINT AT SOME INSTABILITY THROUGH 00Z WITH VERY
SKINNY...MOSTLY ELEVATED CAPE AND GOOD LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER 00Z THE LOW REALLY BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF OF THE COAST AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL NC WILL TIGHTEN UP CAUSING BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH BREEZY WINDS AND SOME
CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE EAST...RADIATIONAL COOLING PROSPECTS WILL
NOT BE AS GOOD AS BACK TO THE WEST WHERE BOTH WIND AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S
WEST TO LOWER 30S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

BY TUESDAY MORNING...LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
HAVE EVOLVED INTO A MATURE NOR`EASTER AND HAVE GROWN CONSIDERABLY IN
SIZE. CENTRAL NC WILL SET UP JUST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE STILL AFFECTING EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE IMPACTS OF THIS WILL BE MINUTE...IF
SATURATION UP THROUGH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE HOLDS ON LONG
ENOUGH...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SNOW FLURRIES OR A BRIEF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ON TUESDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THIS VERY BRIEF
ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE STORM EVENTUALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST TO PUT
CENTRAL NC IN THE COLD AND DRY SECTOR. THE EFFECT OF ALL THAT COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. COUPLE THAT WITH A BREEZY
NORTHERLY WIND IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THAN IT WILL THE 40S. DRYING WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM MONDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: QUIET WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SHIFTING OVERHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. COLUMN IS
STABLE AND FAIRLY DRY WED... SO EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. BELOW-
NORMAL THICKNESSES (BY 25-30 M) AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT
COOL HIGHS OF 42-47. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN WED
NIGHT... WITH A FLATTENING AND ACCELERATING WRLY FLOW ALOFT AND
INITIALLY WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE HIGH CLOUDS MAY TAKE THE
EDGE OFF AN OTHERWISE GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING... WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS... BUT STILL EXPECT CHILLY
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 20S.

THU/THU NIGHT: THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE AT PRECIP... ALTHOUGH
SPECIFIC TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION AS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE. THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE THEN
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC STATES -- TRACKING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE POLAR LOW OVER HUDSON BAY -- WHILE ITS CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE OH VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC COAST. GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUD BASES STEADILY LOWERING THU MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE WSW... PUSHING PW VALUES UP...
ALTHOUGH THEY PEAK AT JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL VALUES... WITH A
LINGERING DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. MOISTURE IS
DEEPEST AND MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF... HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND ITS DEEPER WAVE
GENERATES MORE QPF MUCH LATER (THU EVENING/NIGHT) COMPARED TO THE
LIGHTER/EARLIER GFS (BEST PRECIP CHANCES THU MORNING). WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE ECMWF... WHICH HAS DONE BETTER SHOWING DEEPER WAVES IN
RECENT WEEKS... BUT WILL KEEP POPS NO GREATER THAN 20-30% LATE THU
THROUGH THU NIGHT... FOCUSED ON THE EASTERN CWA. OVERALL MOISTURE
INFLUX DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE
THAN LIGHT QPF. SURFACE WET BULBS SHOULD BE INCHING ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK BY THE TIME PRECIP BEGINS... AND THE LATER ARRIVAL
TIME SHOULD ENSURE THAT TEMPS THU NIGHT STAY MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
EVEN SO... WE`RE LIKELY TO SEE DRYING ALOFT THU NIGHT AFTER THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH... WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE NON-LIQUID
PRECIP THREAT ANYWAY. TOTAL QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT... UNDER A QUARTER
INCH. HIGHS THU 47-52. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.

FRI-SUN: THE POLAR FRONT DROPS TO OUR SOUTH FRI... AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES SLIP BACK TO AROUND 20 M BELOW NORMAL... YIELDING BELOW-
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S DESPITE FAIR SKIES AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE
MID-UPPER 20S. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR SAT/SUN AS THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN IMPORTANT WAYS. BOTH HAVE A POLAR
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY AND ANOTHER LOW OVER NRN BAJA EARLY
SAT. THE GFS REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE POLAR STREAM... TAKING YET
ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MIDWEST THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC THROUGH SUN... BRINGING ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS LIGHT PRECIP TO CENTRAL NC SAT (LIMITED BY
THE WEAK MOISTURE RETURN). THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE
FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM... EASING THE BAJA LOW SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD INTO NW MEXICO WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE NW
GULF... WHILE SRN STREAM ENERGY BEGINS TO SHEARS ENE TOWARD NC. THE
LATTER SOLUTION IS WARMER AND DRIER BUT STARTS TO BRING IN MOIST
OVERRUNNING FLOW BY LATE SUN. GIVEN THIS DISPARITY... PREFER JUST A
SMALL CHANCE POP ON SUN FOR NOW... WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW
NORMAL. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVERSPREADING THE KRDU
AREA THIS MORNING WITH A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND LIGHT RAIN
WILL AFFECT KRWI LATER THIS MORNING. A GAP IN PRECIP WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH LATER TODAY...AGAIN
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THROWN IN.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN THIS MORNING BUT SLOWLY AND
CONDITIONS MAY STAY VFR FOR A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME TODAY.
NORTHERN SITES ARE MOST LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE.
RELATIVELY CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP TO 5-10 KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST TODAY. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT GUSTINESS TO PICK UP
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE POSSIBLE. THESE WILL
SUBSIDE GENERALLY AFTER 6Z BUT MAY HANG ON FOR A WHILE LONGER THAN
THAT IN THE EAST. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...SOME
SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY IN THE EAST. SNOW WILL
NOT ACCUMULATE AND SHOULD CAUSE LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS.

LONG TERM: ONCE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON THE HEELS OF THIS
SYSTEM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FORM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 261606
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1047 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1047 AM MONDAY...

...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...
...A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY POSSIBLE... MAINLY NE OF RDU
OVERNIGHT... NO WITH NO ACCUMULATION.

THE TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD... WITH EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FOR OUR REGION... THIS WILL
OCCUR TO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS
ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING. H5 HEIGHT FALLS
WERE ON THE ORDER OF 120+ METERS FROM GA THROUGH THE CAROLINA`S.
THERE HAVE BEEN PLENTY OF QUICK MOVING RAIN SHOWERS WITH EVEN SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LIFT OUT AHEAD OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON... AND AS IT DOES SO... THE MAIN AREA OF LIFT WILL
SHIFT TO OUR NE ZONES. EXPLOSIVE SURFACE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN
OFFSHORE OF NC THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE GULF STREAM. THIS WAS OCCURRING AS THE ENERGY/LIFT FROM THE
NW TRANSFERS TO THE GULF STREAM AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.

WE WILL SHIFT THE LIKELY POP OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND REPLACE WITH 20-30 POP FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH RANGING INTO THE 50S SOUTH.

UPDATE TO TONIGHT... THERE IS STILL A FLEETING CHANCE OF BRIEF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS... MAINLY OVER THE NE CORRIDOR OF NC THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD ATTRIBUTED TO THE COLD DRY AIR SURGING IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM "CHASING THE MOISTURE". NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. IN FACT... LOWS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 32 REGARDLESS. -BADGETT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 300 AM TODAY... INFRARED SATELLITE
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST OVER EASTERN KY AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE
WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE OFF OF THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC TO AND
RESULT IN A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. CENTRAL NC WILL NOT HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE EXTENSIVE
PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE OCEAN SO THE WAVE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE THE CWA LATER TODAY WILL NOT
BRING MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WHAT IT DOES BRING WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS TEH SOUTH.
TIMING IS TRICKY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE DIFFERENT PERIODS
OF RAIN AS SMALLER WAVE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINING
POCKETS OF FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. THERMODYNAMICS WILL ALSO GET BETTER
AFTER 18Z AND MODELS HINT AT SOME INSTABILITY THROUGH 00Z WITH VERY
SKINNY...MOSTLY ELEVATED CAPE AND GOOD LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER 00Z THE LOW REALLY BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF OF THE COAST AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL NC WILL TIGHTEN UP CAUSING BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH BREEZY WINDS AND SOME
CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE EAST...RADIATIONAL COOLING PROSPECTS WILL
NOT BE AS GOOD AS BACK TO THE WEST WHERE BOTH WIND AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S
WEST TO LOWER 30S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

BY TUESDAY MORNING...LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
HAVE EVOLVED INTO A MATURE NOR`EASTER AND HAVE GROWN CONSIDERABLY IN
SIZE. CENTRAL NC WILL SET UP JUST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE STILL AFFECTING EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE IMPACTS OF THIS WILL BE MINUTE...IF
SATURATION UP THROUGH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE HOLDS ON LONG
ENOUGH...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SNOW FLURRIES OR A BRIEF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ON TUESDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THIS VERY BRIEF
ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE STORM EVENTUALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST TO PUT
CENTRAL NC IN THE COLD AND DRY SECTOR. THE EFFECT OF ALL THAT COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. COUPLE THAT WITH A BREEZY
NORTHERLY WIND IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THAN IT WILL THE 40S. DRYING WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM MONDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: QUIET WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SHIFTING OVERHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. COLUMN IS
STABLE AND FAIRLY DRY WED... SO EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. BELOW-
NORMAL THICKNESSES (BY 25-30 M) AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT
COOL HIGHS OF 42-47. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN WED
NIGHT... WITH A FLATTENING AND ACCELERATING WRLY FLOW ALOFT AND
INITIALLY WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE HIGH CLOUDS MAY TAKE THE
EDGE OFF AN OTHERWISE GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING... WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS... BUT STILL EXPECT CHILLY
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 20S.

THU/THU NIGHT: THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE AT PRECIP... ALTHOUGH
SPECIFIC TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION AS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE. THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE THEN
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC STATES -- TRACKING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE POLAR LOW OVER HUDSON BAY -- WHILE ITS CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE OH VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC COAST. GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUD BASES STEADILY LOWERING THU MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE WSW... PUSHING PW VALUES UP...
ALTHOUGH THEY PEAK AT JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL VALUES... WITH A
LINGERING DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. MOISTURE IS
DEEPEST AND MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF... HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND ITS DEEPER WAVE
GENERATES MORE QPF MUCH LATER (THU EVENING/NIGHT) COMPARED TO THE
LIGHTER/EARLIER GFS (BEST PRECIP CHANCES THU MORNING). WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE ECMWF... WHICH HAS DONE BETTER SHOWING DEEPER WAVES IN
RECENT WEEKS... BUT WILL KEEP POPS NO GREATER THAN 20-30% LATE THU
THROUGH THU NIGHT... FOCUSED ON THE EASTERN CWA. OVERALL MOISTURE
INFLUX DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE
THAN LIGHT QPF. SURFACE WET BULBS SHOULD BE INCHING ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK BY THE TIME PRECIP BEGINS... AND THE LATER ARRIVAL
TIME SHOULD ENSURE THAT TEMPS THU NIGHT STAY MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
EVEN SO... WE`RE LIKELY TO SEE DRYING ALOFT THU NIGHT AFTER THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH... WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE NON-LIQUID
PRECIP THREAT ANYWAY. TOTAL QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT... UNDER A QUARTER
INCH. HIGHS THU 47-52. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.

FRI-SUN: THE POLAR FRONT DROPS TO OUR SOUTH FRI... AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES SLIP BACK TO AROUND 20 M BELOW NORMAL... YIELDING BELOW-
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S DESPITE FAIR SKIES AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE
MID-UPPER 20S. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR SAT/SUN AS THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN IMPORTANT WAYS. BOTH HAVE A POLAR
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY AND ANOTHER LOW OVER NRN BAJA EARLY
SAT. THE GFS REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE POLAR STREAM... TAKING YET
ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MIDWEST THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC THROUGH SUN... BRINGING ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS LIGHT PRECIP TO CENTRAL NC SAT (LIMITED BY
THE WEAK MOISTURE RETURN). THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE
FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM... EASING THE BAJA LOW SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD INTO NW MEXICO WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE NW
GULF... WHILE SRN STREAM ENERGY BEGINS TO SHEARS ENE TOWARD NC. THE
LATTER SOLUTION IS WARMER AND DRIER BUT STARTS TO BRING IN MOIST
OVERRUNNING FLOW BY LATE SUN. GIVEN THIS DISPARITY... PREFER JUST A
SMALL CHANCE POP ON SUN FOR NOW... WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW
NORMAL. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVERSPREADING THE KRDU
AREA THIS MORNING WITH A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND LIGHT RAIN
WILL AFFECT KRWI LATER THIS MORNING. A GAP IN PRECIP WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH LATER TODAY...AGAIN
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THROWN IN.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN THIS MORNING BUT SLOWLY AND
CONDITIONS MAY STAY VFR FOR A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME TODAY.
NORTHERN SITES ARE MOST LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE.
RELATIVELY CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP TO 5-10 KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST TODAY. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT GUSTINESS TO PICK UP
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE POSSIBLE. THESE WILL
SUBSIDE GENERALLY AFTER 6Z BUT MAY HANG ON FOR A WHILE LONGER THAN
THAT IN THE EAST. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...SOME
SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY IN THE EAST. SNOW WILL
NOT ACCUMULATE AND SHOULD CAUSE LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS.

LONG TERM: ONCE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON THE HEELS OF THIS
SYSTEM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FORM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 261211
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
710 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER EASTERN KY AT THIS TIME.
THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE OFF OF THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC TO AND RESULT IN A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CENTRAL NC WILL NOT HAVE TO
DEAL WITH THE EXTENSIVE PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE OCEAN SO THE
WAVE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE THE
CWA LATER TODAY WILL NOT BRING MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WHAT IT
DOES BRING WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS TEH SOUTH. TIMING IS TRICKY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE DIFFERENT PERIODS OF RAIN AS SMALLER WAVE IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BRINING POCKETS OF FAVORABLE DYNAMICS.
THERMODYNAMICS WILL ALSO GET BETTER AFTER 18Z AND MODELS HINT AT
SOME INSTABILITY THROUGH 00Z WITH VERY SKINNY...MOSTLY ELEVATED CAPE
AND GOOD LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER 00Z THE LOW REALLY BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF OF THE COAST AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL NC WILL TIGHTEN UP CAUSING BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH BREEZY WINDS AND SOME
CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE EAST...RADIATIONAL COOLING PROSPECTS WILL
NOT BE AS GOOD AS BACK TO THE WEST WHERE BOTH WIND AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S
WEST TO LOWER 30S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

BY TUESDAY MORNING...LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
HAVE EVOLVED INTO A MATURE NOR`EASTER AND HAVE GROWN CONSIDERABLY IN
SIZE. CENTRAL NC WILL SET UP JUST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE STILL AFFECTING EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE IMPACTS OF THIS WILL BE MINUTE...IF
SATURATION UP THROUGH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE HOLDS ON LONG
ENOUGH...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SNOW FLURRIES OR A BRIEF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ON TUESDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THIS VERY BRIEF
ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE STORM EVENTUALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST TO PUT
CENTRAL NC IN THE COLD AND DRY SECTOR. THE EFFECT OF ALL THAT COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. COUPLE THAT WITH A BREEZY
NORTHERLY WIND IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THAN IT WILL THE 40S. DRYING WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM MONDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: QUIET WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SHIFTING OVERHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. COLUMN IS
STABLE AND FAIRLY DRY WED... SO EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. BELOW-
NORMAL THICKNESSES (BY 25-30 M) AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT
COOL HIGHS OF 42-47. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN WED
NIGHT... WITH A FLATTENING AND ACCELERATING WRLY FLOW ALOFT AND
INITIALLY WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE HIGH CLOUDS MAY TAKE THE
EDGE OFF AN OTHERWISE GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING... WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS... BUT STILL EXPECT CHILLY
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 20S.

THU/THU NIGHT: THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE AT PRECIP... ALTHOUGH
SPECIFIC TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION AS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE. THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE THEN
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC STATES -- TRACKING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE POLAR LOW OVER HUDSON BAY -- WHILE ITS CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE OH VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC COAST. GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUD BASES STEADILY LOWERING THU MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE WSW... PUSHING PW VALUES UP...
ALTHOUGH THEY PEAK AT JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL VALUES... WITH A
LINGERING DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. MOISTURE IS
DEEPEST AND MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF... HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND ITS DEEPER WAVE
GENERATES MORE QPF MUCH LATER (THU EVENING/NIGHT) COMPARED TO THE
LIGHTER/EARLIER GFS (BEST PRECIP CHANCES THU MORNING). WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE ECMWF... WHICH HAS DONE BETTER SHOWING DEEPER WAVES IN
RECENT WEEKS... BUT WILL KEEP POPS NO GREATER THAN 20-30% LATE THU
THROUGH THU NIGHT... FOCUSED ON THE EASTERN CWA. OVERALL MOISTURE
INFLUX DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE
THAN LIGHT QPF. SURFACE WET BULBS SHOULD BE INCHING ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK BY THE TIME PRECIP BEGINS... AND THE LATER ARRIVAL
TIME SHOULD ENSURE THAT TEMPS THU NIGHT STAY MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
EVEN SO... WE`RE LIKELY TO SEE DRYING ALOFT THU NIGHT AFTER THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH... WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE NON-LIQUID
PRECIP THREAT ANYWAY. TOTAL QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT... UNDER A QUARTER
INCH. HIGHS THU 47-52. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.

FRI-SUN: THE POLAR FRONT DROPS TO OUR SOUTH FRI... AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES SLIP BACK TO AROUND 20 M BELOW NORMAL... YIELDING BELOW-
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S DESPITE FAIR SKIES AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE
MID-UPPER 20S. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR SAT/SUN AS THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN IMPORTANT WAYS. BOTH HAVE A POLAR
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY AND ANOTHER LOW OVER NRN BAJA EARLY
SAT. THE GFS REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE POLAR STREAM... TAKING YET
ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MIDWEST THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC THROUGH SUN... BRINGING ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS LIGHT PRECIP TO CENTRAL NC SAT (LIMITED BY
THE WEAK MOISTURE RETURN). THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE
FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM... EASING THE BAJA LOW SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD INTO NW MEXICO WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE NW
GULF... WHILE SRN STREAM ENERGY BEGINS TO SHEARS ENE TOWARD NC. THE
LATTER SOLUTION IS WARMER AND DRIER BUT STARTS TO BRING IN MOIST
OVERRUNNING FLOW BY LATE SUN. GIVEN THIS DISPARITY... PREFER JUST A
SMALL CHANCE POP ON SUN FOR NOW... WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW
NORMAL. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVERSPREADING THE KRDU
AREA THIS MORNING WITH A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND LIGHT RAIN
WILL AFFECT KRWI LATER THIS MORNING. A GAP IN PRECIP WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH LATER TODAY...AGAIN
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THROWN IN.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN THIS MORNING BUT SLOWLY AND
CONDITIONS MAY STAY VFR FOR A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME TODAY.
NORTHERN SITES ARE MOST LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE.
RELATIVELY CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP TO 5-10 KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST TODAY. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT GUSTINESS TO PICK UP
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE POSSIBLE. THESE WILL
SUBSIDE GENERALLY AFTER 6Z BUT MAY HANG ON FOR A WHILE LONGER THAN
THAT IN THE EAST. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...SOME
SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY IN THE EAST. SNOW WILL
NOT ACCUMULATE AND SHOULD CAUSE LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS.

LONG TERM: ONCE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON THE HEELS OF THIS
SYSTEM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FORM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 261211
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
710 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER EASTERN KY AT THIS TIME.
THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE OFF OF THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC TO AND RESULT IN A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CENTRAL NC WILL NOT HAVE TO
DEAL WITH THE EXTENSIVE PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE OCEAN SO THE
WAVE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE THE
CWA LATER TODAY WILL NOT BRING MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WHAT IT
DOES BRING WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS TEH SOUTH. TIMING IS TRICKY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE DIFFERENT PERIODS OF RAIN AS SMALLER WAVE IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BRINING POCKETS OF FAVORABLE DYNAMICS.
THERMODYNAMICS WILL ALSO GET BETTER AFTER 18Z AND MODELS HINT AT
SOME INSTABILITY THROUGH 00Z WITH VERY SKINNY...MOSTLY ELEVATED CAPE
AND GOOD LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER 00Z THE LOW REALLY BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF OF THE COAST AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL NC WILL TIGHTEN UP CAUSING BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH BREEZY WINDS AND SOME
CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE EAST...RADIATIONAL COOLING PROSPECTS WILL
NOT BE AS GOOD AS BACK TO THE WEST WHERE BOTH WIND AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S
WEST TO LOWER 30S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

BY TUESDAY MORNING...LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
HAVE EVOLVED INTO A MATURE NOR`EASTER AND HAVE GROWN CONSIDERABLY IN
SIZE. CENTRAL NC WILL SET UP JUST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE STILL AFFECTING EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE IMPACTS OF THIS WILL BE MINUTE...IF
SATURATION UP THROUGH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE HOLDS ON LONG
ENOUGH...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SNOW FLURRIES OR A BRIEF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ON TUESDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THIS VERY BRIEF
ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE STORM EVENTUALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST TO PUT
CENTRAL NC IN THE COLD AND DRY SECTOR. THE EFFECT OF ALL THAT COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. COUPLE THAT WITH A BREEZY
NORTHERLY WIND IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THAN IT WILL THE 40S. DRYING WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM MONDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: QUIET WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SHIFTING OVERHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. COLUMN IS
STABLE AND FAIRLY DRY WED... SO EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. BELOW-
NORMAL THICKNESSES (BY 25-30 M) AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT
COOL HIGHS OF 42-47. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN WED
NIGHT... WITH A FLATTENING AND ACCELERATING WRLY FLOW ALOFT AND
INITIALLY WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE HIGH CLOUDS MAY TAKE THE
EDGE OFF AN OTHERWISE GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING... WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS... BUT STILL EXPECT CHILLY
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 20S.

THU/THU NIGHT: THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE AT PRECIP... ALTHOUGH
SPECIFIC TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION AS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE. THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE THEN
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC STATES -- TRACKING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE POLAR LOW OVER HUDSON BAY -- WHILE ITS CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE OH VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC COAST. GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUD BASES STEADILY LOWERING THU MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE WSW... PUSHING PW VALUES UP...
ALTHOUGH THEY PEAK AT JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL VALUES... WITH A
LINGERING DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. MOISTURE IS
DEEPEST AND MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF... HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND ITS DEEPER WAVE
GENERATES MORE QPF MUCH LATER (THU EVENING/NIGHT) COMPARED TO THE
LIGHTER/EARLIER GFS (BEST PRECIP CHANCES THU MORNING). WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE ECMWF... WHICH HAS DONE BETTER SHOWING DEEPER WAVES IN
RECENT WEEKS... BUT WILL KEEP POPS NO GREATER THAN 20-30% LATE THU
THROUGH THU NIGHT... FOCUSED ON THE EASTERN CWA. OVERALL MOISTURE
INFLUX DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE
THAN LIGHT QPF. SURFACE WET BULBS SHOULD BE INCHING ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK BY THE TIME PRECIP BEGINS... AND THE LATER ARRIVAL
TIME SHOULD ENSURE THAT TEMPS THU NIGHT STAY MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
EVEN SO... WE`RE LIKELY TO SEE DRYING ALOFT THU NIGHT AFTER THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH... WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE NON-LIQUID
PRECIP THREAT ANYWAY. TOTAL QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT... UNDER A QUARTER
INCH. HIGHS THU 47-52. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.

FRI-SUN: THE POLAR FRONT DROPS TO OUR SOUTH FRI... AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES SLIP BACK TO AROUND 20 M BELOW NORMAL... YIELDING BELOW-
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S DESPITE FAIR SKIES AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE
MID-UPPER 20S. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR SAT/SUN AS THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN IMPORTANT WAYS. BOTH HAVE A POLAR
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY AND ANOTHER LOW OVER NRN BAJA EARLY
SAT. THE GFS REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE POLAR STREAM... TAKING YET
ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MIDWEST THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC THROUGH SUN... BRINGING ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS LIGHT PRECIP TO CENTRAL NC SAT (LIMITED BY
THE WEAK MOISTURE RETURN). THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE
FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM... EASING THE BAJA LOW SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD INTO NW MEXICO WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE NW
GULF... WHILE SRN STREAM ENERGY BEGINS TO SHEARS ENE TOWARD NC. THE
LATTER SOLUTION IS WARMER AND DRIER BUT STARTS TO BRING IN MOIST
OVERRUNNING FLOW BY LATE SUN. GIVEN THIS DISPARITY... PREFER JUST A
SMALL CHANCE POP ON SUN FOR NOW... WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW
NORMAL. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVERSPREADING THE KRDU
AREA THIS MORNING WITH A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND LIGHT RAIN
WILL AFFECT KRWI LATER THIS MORNING. A GAP IN PRECIP WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH LATER TODAY...AGAIN
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THROWN IN.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN THIS MORNING BUT SLOWLY AND
CONDITIONS MAY STAY VFR FOR A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME TODAY.
NORTHERN SITES ARE MOST LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE.
RELATIVELY CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP TO 5-10 KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST TODAY. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT GUSTINESS TO PICK UP
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE POSSIBLE. THESE WILL
SUBSIDE GENERALLY AFTER 6Z BUT MAY HANG ON FOR A WHILE LONGER THAN
THAT IN THE EAST. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...SOME
SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY IN THE EAST. SNOW WILL
NOT ACCUMULATE AND SHOULD CAUSE LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS.

LONG TERM: ONCE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON THE HEELS OF THIS
SYSTEM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FORM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 260752
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
252 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER EASTERN KY AT THIS TIME.
THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE OFF OF THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC TO AND RESULT IN A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CENTRAL NC WILL NOT HAVE TO
DEAL WITH THE EXTENSIVE PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE OCEAN SO THE
WAVE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE THE
CWA LATER TODAY WILL NOT BRING MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WHAT IT
DOES BRING WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS TEH SOUTH. TIMING IS TRICKY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE DIFFERENT PERIODS OF RAIN AS SMALLER WAVE IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BRINING POCKETS OF FAVORABLE DYNAMICS.
THERMODYNAMICS WILL ALSO GET BETTER AFTER 18Z AND MODELS HINT AT
SOME INSTABILITY THROUGH 00Z WITH VERY SKINNY...MOSTLY ELEVATED CAPE
AND GOOD LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER 00Z THE LOW REALLY BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF OF THE COAST AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL NC WILL TIGHTEN UP CAUSING BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH BREEZY WINDS AND SOME
CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE EAST...RADIATIONAL COOLING PROSPECTS WILL
NOT BE AS GOOD AS BACK TO THE WEST WHERE BOTH WIND AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S
WEST TO LOWER 30S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

BY TUESDAY MORNING...LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
HAVE EVOLVED INTO A MATURE NOR`EASTER AND HAVE GROWN CONSIDERABLY IN
SIZE. CENTRAL NC WILL SET UP JUST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE STILL AFFECTING EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE IMPACTS OF THIS WILL BE MINUTE...IF
SATURATION UP THROUGH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE HOLDS ON LONG
ENOUGH...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SNOW FLURRIES OR A BRIEF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ON TUESDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THIS VERY BRIEF
ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE STORM EVENTUALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST TO PUT
CENTRAL NC IN THE COLD AND DRY SECTOR. THE EFFECT OF ALL THAT COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. COUPLE THAT WITH A BREEZY
NORTHERLY WIND IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THAN IT WILL THE 40S. DRYING WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM MONDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: QUIET WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SHIFTING OVERHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. COLUMN IS
STABLE AND FAIRLY DRY WED... SO EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. BELOW-
NORMAL THICKNESSES (BY 25-30 M) AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT
COOL HIGHS OF 42-47. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN WED
NIGHT... WITH A FLATTENING AND ACCELERATING WRLY FLOW ALOFT AND
INITIALLY WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE HIGH CLOUDS MAY TAKE THE
EDGE OFF AN OTHERWISE GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING... WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS... BUT STILL EXPECT CHILLY
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 20S.

THU/THU NIGHT: THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE AT PRECIP... ALTHOUGH
SPECIFIC TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION AS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE. THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE THEN
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC STATES -- TRACKING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE POLAR LOW OVER HUDSON BAY -- WHILE ITS CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE OH VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC COAST. GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUD BASES STEADILY LOWERING THU MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE WSW... PUSHING PW VALUES UP...
ALTHOUGH THEY PEAK AT JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL VALUES... WITH A
LINGERING DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. MOISTURE IS
DEEPEST AND MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF... HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND ITS DEEPER WAVE
GENERATES MORE QPF MUCH LATER (THU EVENING/NIGHT) COMPARED TO THE
LIGHTER/EARLIER GFS (BEST PRECIP CHANCES THU MORNING). WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE ECMWF... WHICH HAS DONE BETTER SHOWING DEEPER WAVES IN
RECENT WEEKS... BUT WILL KEEP POPS NO GREATER THAN 20-30% LATE THU
THROUGH THU NIGHT... FOCUSED ON THE EASTERN CWA. OVERALL MOISTURE
INFLUX DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE
THAN LIGHT QPF. SURFACE WET BULBS SHOULD BE INCHING ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK BY THE TIME PRECIP BEGINS... AND THE LATER ARRIVAL
TIME SHOULD ENSURE THAT TEMPS THU NIGHT STAY MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
EVEN SO... WE`RE LIKELY TO SEE DRYING ALOFT THU NIGHT AFTER THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH... WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE NON-LIQUID
PRECIP THREAT ANYWAY. TOTAL QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT... UNDER A QUARTER
INCH. HIGHS THU 47-52. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.

FRI-SUN: THE POLAR FRONT DROPS TO OUR SOUTH FRI... AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES SLIP BACK TO AROUND 20 M BELOW NORMAL... YIELDING BELOW-
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S DESPITE FAIR SKIES AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE
MID-UPPER 20S. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR SAT/SUN AS THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN IMPORTANT WAYS. BOTH HAVE A POLAR
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY AND ANOTHER LOW OVER NRN BAJA EARLY
SAT. THE GFS REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE POLAR STREAM... TAKING YET
ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MIDWEST THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC THROUGH SUN... BRINGING ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS LIGHT PRECIP TO CENTRAL NC SAT (LIMITED BY
THE WEAK MOISTURE RETURN). THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE
FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM... EASING THE BAJA LOW SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD INTO NW MEXICO WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE NW
GULF... WHILE SRN STREAM ENERGY BEGINS TO SHEARS ENE TOWARD NC. THE
LATTER SOLUTION IS WARMER AND DRIER BUT STARTS TO BRING IN MOIST
OVERRUNNING FLOW BY LATE SUN. GIVEN THIS DISPARITY... PREFER JUST A
SMALL CHANCE POP ON SUN FOR NOW... WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW
NORMAL. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 105 AM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL THIS
MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. BETWEEN NOW AND
12Z MODELS AGREE ON SOME LOWERING OF CEILINGS BUT UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS HAVE YET TO SHOW MUCH OF A HINT OF THIS. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL COVER IN THE TAFS WITH
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF IN THE EAST ON ANY DETERIORATION IN
CONDITIONS AT KRDU AND KRWI UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. KFAY MAY
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS MOST OF THE LIGHT RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THIS
WILL BE THE EXCEPTION TO THE RULE. AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN GUSTING UP TO 20-25
KTS...PRIMARILY AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: ONCE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON THE HEELS OF THIS
SYSTEM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FORM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 260752
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
252 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER EASTERN KY AT THIS TIME.
THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE OFF OF THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC TO AND RESULT IN A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CENTRAL NC WILL NOT HAVE TO
DEAL WITH THE EXTENSIVE PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE OCEAN SO THE
WAVE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE THE
CWA LATER TODAY WILL NOT BRING MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WHAT IT
DOES BRING WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS TEH SOUTH. TIMING IS TRICKY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE DIFFERENT PERIODS OF RAIN AS SMALLER WAVE IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA BRINING POCKETS OF FAVORABLE DYNAMICS.
THERMODYNAMICS WILL ALSO GET BETTER AFTER 18Z AND MODELS HINT AT
SOME INSTABILITY THROUGH 00Z WITH VERY SKINNY...MOSTLY ELEVATED CAPE
AND GOOD LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER 00Z THE LOW REALLY BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF OF THE COAST AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL NC WILL TIGHTEN UP CAUSING BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH BREEZY WINDS AND SOME
CLOUDS LINGERING IN THE EAST...RADIATIONAL COOLING PROSPECTS WILL
NOT BE AS GOOD AS BACK TO THE WEST WHERE BOTH WIND AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE LESS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S
WEST TO LOWER 30S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...

BY TUESDAY MORNING...LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
HAVE EVOLVED INTO A MATURE NOR`EASTER AND HAVE GROWN CONSIDERABLY IN
SIZE. CENTRAL NC WILL SET UP JUST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE STILL AFFECTING EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE IMPACTS OF THIS WILL BE MINUTE...IF
SATURATION UP THROUGH THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE HOLDS ON LONG
ENOUGH...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SNOW FLURRIES OR A BRIEF
SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ON TUESDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. THIS VERY BRIEF
ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
THE STORM EVENTUALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST TO PUT
CENTRAL NC IN THE COLD AND DRY SECTOR. THE EFFECT OF ALL THAT COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE A MUCH COOLER DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. COUPLE THAT WITH A BREEZY
NORTHERLY WIND IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THAN IT WILL THE 40S. DRYING WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM MONDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: QUIET WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SHIFTING OVERHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. COLUMN IS
STABLE AND FAIRLY DRY WED... SO EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. BELOW-
NORMAL THICKNESSES (BY 25-30 M) AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT
COOL HIGHS OF 42-47. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN WED
NIGHT... WITH A FLATTENING AND ACCELERATING WRLY FLOW ALOFT AND
INITIALLY WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE HIGH CLOUDS MAY TAKE THE
EDGE OFF AN OTHERWISE GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING... WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS... BUT STILL EXPECT CHILLY
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 20S.

THU/THU NIGHT: THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE AT PRECIP... ALTHOUGH
SPECIFIC TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION AS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE. THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE THEN
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC STATES -- TRACKING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE POLAR LOW OVER HUDSON BAY -- WHILE ITS CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE OH VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC COAST. GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUD BASES STEADILY LOWERING THU MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE WSW... PUSHING PW VALUES UP...
ALTHOUGH THEY PEAK AT JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL VALUES... WITH A
LINGERING DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. MOISTURE IS
DEEPEST AND MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF... HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND ITS DEEPER WAVE
GENERATES MORE QPF MUCH LATER (THU EVENING/NIGHT) COMPARED TO THE
LIGHTER/EARLIER GFS (BEST PRECIP CHANCES THU MORNING). WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE ECMWF... WHICH HAS DONE BETTER SHOWING DEEPER WAVES IN
RECENT WEEKS... BUT WILL KEEP POPS NO GREATER THAN 20-30% LATE THU
THROUGH THU NIGHT... FOCUSED ON THE EASTERN CWA. OVERALL MOISTURE
INFLUX DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE
THAN LIGHT QPF. SURFACE WET BULBS SHOULD BE INCHING ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK BY THE TIME PRECIP BEGINS... AND THE LATER ARRIVAL
TIME SHOULD ENSURE THAT TEMPS THU NIGHT STAY MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
EVEN SO... WE`RE LIKELY TO SEE DRYING ALOFT THU NIGHT AFTER THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH... WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE NON-LIQUID
PRECIP THREAT ANYWAY. TOTAL QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT... UNDER A QUARTER
INCH. HIGHS THU 47-52. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.

FRI-SUN: THE POLAR FRONT DROPS TO OUR SOUTH FRI... AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES SLIP BACK TO AROUND 20 M BELOW NORMAL... YIELDING BELOW-
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S DESPITE FAIR SKIES AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE
MID-UPPER 20S. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR SAT/SUN AS THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN IMPORTANT WAYS. BOTH HAVE A POLAR
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY AND ANOTHER LOW OVER NRN BAJA EARLY
SAT. THE GFS REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE POLAR STREAM... TAKING YET
ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MIDWEST THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC THROUGH SUN... BRINGING ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS LIGHT PRECIP TO CENTRAL NC SAT (LIMITED BY
THE WEAK MOISTURE RETURN). THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE
FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM... EASING THE BAJA LOW SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD INTO NW MEXICO WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE NW
GULF... WHILE SRN STREAM ENERGY BEGINS TO SHEARS ENE TOWARD NC. THE
LATTER SOLUTION IS WARMER AND DRIER BUT STARTS TO BRING IN MOIST
OVERRUNNING FLOW BY LATE SUN. GIVEN THIS DISPARITY... PREFER JUST A
SMALL CHANCE POP ON SUN FOR NOW... WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW
NORMAL. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 105 AM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL THIS
MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. BETWEEN NOW AND
12Z MODELS AGREE ON SOME LOWERING OF CEILINGS BUT UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS HAVE YET TO SHOW MUCH OF A HINT OF THIS. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL COVER IN THE TAFS WITH
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF IN THE EAST ON ANY DETERIORATION IN
CONDITIONS AT KRDU AND KRWI UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. KFAY MAY
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS MOST OF THE LIGHT RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THIS
WILL BE THE EXCEPTION TO THE RULE. AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN GUSTING UP TO 20-25
KTS...PRIMARILY AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: ONCE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON THE HEELS OF THIS
SYSTEM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FORM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 260711
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
210 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 918 PM SUNDAY...

AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL DIG SEWD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST US THROUGH DAYBREAK. ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
TRACK NEWD UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY EVENING-NIGHT.

WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED(PWS 0.50-0.60")...INTENSE H5 FALLS ON THE
ORDER OF 120-140 METERS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO SUPPORT A BAND OF SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
PRECLUDING ANY P-TYPE CONCERNS. TEMPS MAY FALL ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO..WITH TEMPS LEVELING OUT WIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE THICKER CLOUD
COVER. LOWS RANGING FROM MIDS IN THE EAST TO UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SUNDAY...

AS THE VORTICITY ALOFT TRACKS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER MONDAY... ENERGY
WILL BE FOCUSED OFFSHORE AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
TAKE SHAPE OFF CAPE HATTERAS... THEN PULL NORTHWARD UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOST IF NOT ALL THE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN WILL FALL OFFSHORE WITH THE STORM ITSELF AT OUR LATITUDE.
HOWEVER... SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STORM WILL AFFECT THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHIFTS OVER NE OVER THE WASHINGTON-
PHILADELPHIA REGIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
(RAIN) MONDAY AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY SNOW. HOWEVER... THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW MIXED
WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NE ZONES AS THE COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN... COLD AND
DRY AIR CHASING THE MOISTURE IS NOT A CONCERN FOR ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN IF THERE ARE A FEW SNOW FLAKES OR FLURRIES AT
THE END OF THE EVENT (MAINLY RDU NORTH AND EAST) - IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO STICK.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... CLOUDY BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. QPF WILL BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP
TO A TENTH NORTHEAST. HIGHS GENERALLY 40S NORTH TO 50S SOUTH. A
CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH AND
EAST... MAY BECOME A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES BEFORE THE DRY AIR WINS OUT.
BECOMING CLEAR SOUTH AND WEST. BREEZY. LOWS 25-30 WEST AND 33-35 NE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT: EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
TUE IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A POTENT NOR`EASTER TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW/MID-LEVEL CEILINGS...ESP IN N/NE
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY /DPVA/ PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MATURING UPPER LEVEL
WAVE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM
A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. SKIES WILL CLEAR TUE NIGHT IN ASSOC/W SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE AS THE MATURE /VERTICALLY STACKED/ UPPER LOW PROGRESSES
FURTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A RELATIVELY TIGHT
MSLP GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH LOWS WED MORNING IN THE MID 20S...COLDEST ALONG THE
YADKIN RIVER WHERE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THE MOST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM MONDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: QUIET WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SHIFTING OVERHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. COLUMN IS
STABLE AND FAIRLY DRY WED... SO EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. BELOW-
NORMAL THICKNESSES (BY 25-30 M) AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT
COOL HIGHS OF 42-47. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN WED
NIGHT... WITH A FLATTENING AND ACCELERATING WRLY FLOW ALOFT AND
INITIALLY WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE HIGH CLOUDS MAY TAKE THE
EDGE OFF AN OTHERWISE GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING... WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS... BUT STILL EXPECT CHILLY
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 20S.

THU/THU NIGHT: THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE AT PRECIP... ALTHOUGH
SPECIFIC TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION AS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE. THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE THEN
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC STATES -- TRACKING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE POLAR LOW OVER HUDSON BAY -- WHILE ITS CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE OH VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC COAST. GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUD BASES STEADILY LOWERING THU MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE WSW... PUSHING PW VALUES UP...
ALTHOUGH THEY PEAK AT JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL VALUES... WITH A
LINGERING DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. MOISTURE IS
DEEPEST AND MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF... HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND ITS DEEPER WAVE
GENERATES MORE QPF MUCH LATER (THU EVENING/NIGHT) COMPARED TO THE
LIGHTER/EARLIER GFS (BEST PRECIP CHANCES THU MORNING). WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE ECMWF... WHICH HAS DONE BETTER SHOWING DEEPER WAVES IN
RECENT WEEKS... BUT WILL KEEP POPS NO GREATER THAN 20-30% LATE THU
THROUGH THU NIGHT... FOCUSED ON THE EASTERN CWA. OVERALL MOISTURE
INFLUX DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE
THAN LIGHT QPF. SURFACE WET BULBS SHOULD BE INCHING ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK BY THE TIME PRECIP BEGINS... AND THE LATER ARRIVAL
TIME SHOULD ENSURE THAT TEMPS THU NIGHT STAY MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
EVEN SO... WE`RE LIKELY TO SEE DRYING ALOFT THU NIGHT AFTER THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH... WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE NON-LIQUID
PRECIP THREAT ANYWAY. TOTAL QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT... UNDER A QUARTER
INCH. HIGHS THU 47-52. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.

FRI-SUN: THE POLAR FRONT DROPS TO OUR SOUTH FRI... AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES SLIP BACK TO AROUND 20 M BELOW NORMAL... YIELDING BELOW-
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S DESPITE FAIR SKIES AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE
MID-UPPER 20S. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR SAT/SUN AS THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN IMPORTANT WAYS. BOTH HAVE A POLAR
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY AND ANOTHER LOW OVER NRN BAJA EARLY
SAT. THE GFS REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE POLAR STREAM... TAKING YET
ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MIDWEST THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC THROUGH SUN... BRINGING ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS LIGHT PRECIP TO CENTRAL NC SAT (LIMITED BY
THE WEAK MOISTURE RETURN). THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE
FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM... EASING THE BAJA LOW SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD INTO NW MEXICO WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE NW
GULF... WHILE SRN STREAM ENERGY BEGINS TO SHEARS ENE TOWARD NC. THE
LATTER SOLUTION IS WARMER AND DRIER BUT STARTS TO BRING IN MOIST
OVERRUNNING FLOW BY LATE SUN. GIVEN THIS DISPARITY... PREFER JUST A
SMALL CHANCE POP ON SUN FOR NOW... WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW
NORMAL. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 105 AM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL THIS
MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. BETWEEN NOW AND
12Z MODELS AGREE ON SOME LOWERING OF CEILINGS BUT UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS HAVE YET TO SHOW MUCH OF A HINT OF THIS. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL COVER IN THE TAFS WITH
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF IN THE EAST ON ANY DETERIORATION IN
CONDITIONS AT KRDU AND KRWI UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. KFAY MAY
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS MOST OF THE LIGHT RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THIS
WILL BE THE EXCEPTION TO THE RULE. AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN GUSTING UP TO 20-25
KTS...PRIMARILY AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: ONCE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON THE HEELS OF THIS
SYSTEM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FORM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/BV
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 260711
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
210 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION
TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 918 PM SUNDAY...

AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL DIG SEWD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST US THROUGH DAYBREAK. ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
TRACK NEWD UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY EVENING-NIGHT.

WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED(PWS 0.50-0.60")...INTENSE H5 FALLS ON THE
ORDER OF 120-140 METERS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO SUPPORT A BAND OF SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
PRECLUDING ANY P-TYPE CONCERNS. TEMPS MAY FALL ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO..WITH TEMPS LEVELING OUT WIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE THICKER CLOUD
COVER. LOWS RANGING FROM MIDS IN THE EAST TO UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SUNDAY...

AS THE VORTICITY ALOFT TRACKS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER MONDAY... ENERGY
WILL BE FOCUSED OFFSHORE AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
TAKE SHAPE OFF CAPE HATTERAS... THEN PULL NORTHWARD UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOST IF NOT ALL THE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN WILL FALL OFFSHORE WITH THE STORM ITSELF AT OUR LATITUDE.
HOWEVER... SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STORM WILL AFFECT THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHIFTS OVER NE OVER THE WASHINGTON-
PHILADELPHIA REGIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
(RAIN) MONDAY AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY SNOW. HOWEVER... THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW MIXED
WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NE ZONES AS THE COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN... COLD AND
DRY AIR CHASING THE MOISTURE IS NOT A CONCERN FOR ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN IF THERE ARE A FEW SNOW FLAKES OR FLURRIES AT
THE END OF THE EVENT (MAINLY RDU NORTH AND EAST) - IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO STICK.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... CLOUDY BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. QPF WILL BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP
TO A TENTH NORTHEAST. HIGHS GENERALLY 40S NORTH TO 50S SOUTH. A
CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH AND
EAST... MAY BECOME A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES BEFORE THE DRY AIR WINS OUT.
BECOMING CLEAR SOUTH AND WEST. BREEZY. LOWS 25-30 WEST AND 33-35 NE.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT: EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
TUE IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A POTENT NOR`EASTER TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW/MID-LEVEL CEILINGS...ESP IN N/NE
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY /DPVA/ PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MATURING UPPER LEVEL
WAVE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM
A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. SKIES WILL CLEAR TUE NIGHT IN ASSOC/W SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE AS THE MATURE /VERTICALLY STACKED/ UPPER LOW PROGRESSES
FURTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A RELATIVELY TIGHT
MSLP GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH LOWS WED MORNING IN THE MID 20S...COLDEST ALONG THE
YADKIN RIVER WHERE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THE MOST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM MONDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: QUIET WEATHER WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SHIFTING OVERHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. COLUMN IS
STABLE AND FAIRLY DRY WED... SO EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. BELOW-
NORMAL THICKNESSES (BY 25-30 M) AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORT
COOL HIGHS OF 42-47. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN WED
NIGHT... WITH A FLATTENING AND ACCELERATING WRLY FLOW ALOFT AND
INITIALLY WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THESE HIGH CLOUDS MAY TAKE THE
EDGE OFF AN OTHERWISE GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING... WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS... BUT STILL EXPECT CHILLY
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 20S.

THU/THU NIGHT: THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE AT PRECIP... ALTHOUGH
SPECIFIC TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE IN QUESTION AS GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE. THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK ESE THEN
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC STATES -- TRACKING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE POLAR LOW OVER HUDSON BAY -- WHILE ITS CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE OH VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC COAST. GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUD BASES STEADILY LOWERING THU MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS FROM THE WSW... PUSHING PW VALUES UP...
ALTHOUGH THEY PEAK AT JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL VALUES... WITH A
LINGERING DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. MOISTURE IS
DEEPEST AND MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF... HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND ITS DEEPER WAVE
GENERATES MORE QPF MUCH LATER (THU EVENING/NIGHT) COMPARED TO THE
LIGHTER/EARLIER GFS (BEST PRECIP CHANCES THU MORNING). WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE ECMWF... WHICH HAS DONE BETTER SHOWING DEEPER WAVES IN
RECENT WEEKS... BUT WILL KEEP POPS NO GREATER THAN 20-30% LATE THU
THROUGH THU NIGHT... FOCUSED ON THE EASTERN CWA. OVERALL MOISTURE
INFLUX DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE
THAN LIGHT QPF. SURFACE WET BULBS SHOULD BE INCHING ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK BY THE TIME PRECIP BEGINS... AND THE LATER ARRIVAL
TIME SHOULD ENSURE THAT TEMPS THU NIGHT STAY MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
EVEN SO... WE`RE LIKELY TO SEE DRYING ALOFT THU NIGHT AFTER THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH... WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE NON-LIQUID
PRECIP THREAT ANYWAY. TOTAL QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT... UNDER A QUARTER
INCH. HIGHS THU 47-52. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.

FRI-SUN: THE POLAR FRONT DROPS TO OUR SOUTH FRI... AND LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES SLIP BACK TO AROUND 20 M BELOW NORMAL... YIELDING BELOW-
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S DESPITE FAIR SKIES AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE
MID-UPPER 20S. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR SAT/SUN AS THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN IMPORTANT WAYS. BOTH HAVE A POLAR
LOW OVER HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY AND ANOTHER LOW OVER NRN BAJA EARLY
SAT. THE GFS REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE POLAR STREAM... TAKING YET
ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND MIDWEST THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC THROUGH SUN... BRINGING ENHANCED
CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS LIGHT PRECIP TO CENTRAL NC SAT (LIMITED BY
THE WEAK MOISTURE RETURN). THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS MORE
FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM... EASING THE BAJA LOW SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD INTO NW MEXICO WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE NW
GULF... WHILE SRN STREAM ENERGY BEGINS TO SHEARS ENE TOWARD NC. THE
LATTER SOLUTION IS WARMER AND DRIER BUT STARTS TO BRING IN MOIST
OVERRUNNING FLOW BY LATE SUN. GIVEN THIS DISPARITY... PREFER JUST A
SMALL CHANCE POP ON SUN FOR NOW... WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW
NORMAL. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 105 AM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL THIS
MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. BETWEEN NOW AND
12Z MODELS AGREE ON SOME LOWERING OF CEILINGS BUT UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS HAVE YET TO SHOW MUCH OF A HINT OF THIS. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL COVER IN THE TAFS WITH
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF IN THE EAST ON ANY DETERIORATION IN
CONDITIONS AT KRDU AND KRWI UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. KFAY MAY
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS MOST OF THE LIGHT RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THIS
WILL BE THE EXCEPTION TO THE RULE. AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN GUSTING UP TO 20-25
KTS...PRIMARILY AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: ONCE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON THE HEELS OF THIS
SYSTEM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FORM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/BV
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 260609
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
109 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 918 PM SUNDAY...

AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL DIG SEWD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST US THROUGH DAYBREAK. ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
TRACK NEWD UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY EVENING-NIGHT.

WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED(PWS 0.50-0.60")...INTENSE H5 FALLS ON THE
ORDER OF 120-140 METERS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO SUPPORT A BAND OF SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
PRECLUDING ANY P-TYPE CONCERNS. TEMPS MAY FALL ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO..WITH TEMPS LEVELING OUT WIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE THICKER CLOUD
COVER. LOWS RANGING FROM MIDS IN THE EAST TO UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SUNDAY...

AS THE VORTICITY ALOFT TRACKS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER MONDAY... ENERGY
WILL BE FOCUSED OFFSHORE AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
TAKE SHAPE OFF CAPE HATTERAS... THEN PULL NORTHWARD UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOST IF NOT ALL THE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN WILL FALL OFFSHORE WITH THE STORM ITSELF AT OUR LATITUDE.
HOWEVER... SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STORM WILL AFFECT THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHIFTS OVER NE OVER THE WASHINGTON-
PHILADELPHIA REGIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
(RAIN) MONDAY AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY SNOW. HOWEVER... THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW MIXED
WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NE ZONES AS THE COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN... COLD AND
DRY AIR CHASING THE MOISTURE IS NOT A CONCERN FOR ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN IF THERE ARE A FEW SNOW FLAKES OR FLURRIES AT
THE END OF THE EVENT (MAINLY RDU NORTH AND EAST) - IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO STICK.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... CLOUDY BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. QPF WILL BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP
TO A TENTH NORTHEAST. HIGHS GENERALLY 40S NORTH TO 50S SOUTH. A
CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH AND
EAST... MAY BECOME A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES BEFORE THE DRY AIR WINS OUT.
BECOMING CLEAR SOUTH AND WEST. BREEZY. LOWS 25-30 WEST AND 33-35 NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...

TUE AND TUE NIGHT: EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
TUE IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A POTENT NOR`EASTER TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW/MID-LEVEL CEILINGS...ESP IN N/NE
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY /DPVA/ PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MATURING UPPER LEVEL
WAVE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM
A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. SKIES WILL CLEAR TUE NIGHT IN ASSOC/W SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE AS THE MATURE /VERTICALLY STACKED/ UPPER LOW PROGRESSES
FURTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A RELATIVELY TIGHT
MSLP GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH LOWS WED MORNING IN THE MID 20S...COLDEST ALONG THE
YADKIN RIVER WHERE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THE MOST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

WED/WED NIGHT: CLEAR SKIES...VERY DRY CONDITIONS (SFC DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS)...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WILL PERSIST DURING THE DAY WED IN THE WAKE OF THE NOR`EASTER
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE /HIGH PRESSURE/ BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S (COOLEST NE). ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY VIA NW FLOW ALOFT WED
NIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LOWS WILL
HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION.
AT THIS TIME WILL INDICATE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

THU/THU NIGHT: THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH
DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT SUFFICIENT
FORCING/ MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

FRI-SUN: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THIS
PERIOD AS NW FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO TROUGHING ALOFT ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR NONE TO
LOW...WITH CENTRAL NC ON THE DRIER/SUBSIDENT WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 105 AM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO PREVAIL THIS
MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. BETWEEN NOW AND
12Z MODELS AGREE ON SOME LOWERING OF CEILINGS BUT UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS HAVE YET TO SHOW MUCH OF A HINT OF THIS. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL COVER IN THE TAFS WITH
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF IN THE EAST ON ANY DETERIORATION IN
CONDITIONS AT KRDU AND KRWI UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. KFAY MAY
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS MOST OF THE LIGHT RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THIS
WILL BE THE EXCEPTION TO THE RULE. AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN GUSTING UP TO 20-25
KTS...PRIMARILY AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: ONCE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON THE HEELS OF THIS
SYSTEM...THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FORM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL/BADGETT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 260219
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
918 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 918 PM SUNDAY...

AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL DIG SEWD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST US THROUGH DAYBREAK. ATTENDANT SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
TRACK NEWD UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY EVENING-NIGHT.

WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED(PWS 0.50-0.60")...INTENSE H5 FALLS ON THE
ORDER OF 120-140 METERS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO SUPPORT A BAND OF SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
PRECLUDING ANY P-TYPE CONCERNS. TEMPS MAY FALL ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO..WITH TEMPS LEVELING OUT WIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE THICKER CLOUD
COVER. LOWS RANGING FROM MIDS IN THE EAST TO UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SUNDAY...

AS THE VORTICITY ALOFT TRACKS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER MONDAY... ENERGY
WILL BE FOCUSED OFFSHORE AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
TAKE SHAPE OFF CAPE HATTERAS... THEN PULL NORTHWARD UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOST IF NOT ALL THE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN WILL FALL OFFSHORE WITH THE STORM ITSELF AT OUR LATITUDE.
HOWEVER... SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STORM WILL AFFECT THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHIFTS OVER NE OVER THE WASHINGTON-
PHILADELPHIA REGIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
(RAIN) MONDAY AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY SNOW. HOWEVER... THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW MIXED
WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NE ZONES AS THE COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN... COLD AND
DRY AIR CHASING THE MOISTURE IS NOT A CONCERN FOR ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN IF THERE ARE A FEW SNOW FLAKES OR FLURRIES AT
THE END OF THE EVENT (MAINLY RDU NORTH AND EAST) - IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO STICK.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... CLOUDY BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. QPF WILL BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP
TO A TENTH NORTHEAST. HIGHS GENERALLY 40S NORTH TO 50S SOUTH. A
CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH AND
EAST... MAY BECOME A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES BEFORE THE DRY AIR WINS OUT.
BECOMING CLEAR SOUTH AND WEST. BREEZY. LOWS 25-30 WEST AND 33-35 NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...

TUE AND TUE NIGHT: EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
TUE IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A POTENT NOR`EASTER TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW/MID-LEVEL CEILINGS...ESP IN N/NE
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY /DPVA/ PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MATURING UPPER LEVEL
WAVE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM
A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. SKIES WILL CLEAR TUE NIGHT IN ASSOC/W SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE AS THE MATURE /VERTICALLY STACKED/ UPPER LOW PROGRESSES
FURTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A RELATIVELY TIGHT
MSLP GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH LOWS WED MORNING IN THE MID 20S...COLDEST ALONG THE
YADKIN RIVER WHERE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THE MOST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

WED/WED NIGHT: CLEAR SKIES...VERY DRY CONDITIONS (SFC DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS)...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WILL PERSIST DURING THE DAY WED IN THE WAKE OF THE NOR`EASTER
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE /HIGH PRESSURE/ BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S (COOLEST NE). ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY VIA NW FLOW ALOFT WED
NIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LOWS WILL
HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION.
AT THIS TIME WILL INDICATE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

THU/THU NIGHT: THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH
DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT SUFFICIENT
FORCING/ MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

FRI-SUN: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THIS
PERIOD AS NW FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO TROUGHING ALOFT ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR NONE TO
LOW...WITH CENTRAL NC ON THE DRIER/SUBSIDENT WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN OUR NEXT
SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IN ADDITION LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST...MAINLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW AM EXPECTING MOSTLY MVFR CIGS...BUT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. CURRENT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT IMPACT THE AREA
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL/BADGETT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 252354
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
654 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

ESSENTIALLY NO CHANCE OF ANY WINTERY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION WITH
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

SUNNY MILD WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
50S WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING.

FORECAST ASSESSMENT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHING NC FROM THE NW. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY
THE SAME AS THE ONE ADVERTISED IN THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES...
FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT... THEN EASTWARD NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER
MONDAY. THIS TRACK NORTH OF OUR REGION OFFERS NO CHANCE OF ANY
ACCUMULATING WINTERY PRECIPIATION ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS TRACK ESSENTIALLY KEEPS OUR REGION IN THE MILD/WARM
SIDE OF THE STORM... WITH THE COLD AIR FINALLY EXPECTED TO DIVE IN
AS THE STORM DEPARTS MONDAY NIGHT... A CLASSIC CASE OF COLD AIR
CHASING THE MOISTURE FOR US.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED MID TO LATE EVENING. THEN
CLOUDY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW AND
INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE 35-
40 RANGE. HOWEVER... LOWS SHOULD BE MET THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
CLOUDS THICKEN UP. COOLEST NE AND WARMEST FAR WEST. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN LATE IN THE NW.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS
THE COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SUNDAY...

AS THE VORTICITY ALOFT TRACKS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER MONDAY... ENERGY
WILL BE FOCUSED OFFSHORE AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
TAKE SHAPE OFF CAPE HATTERAS... THEN PULL NORTHWARD UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOST IF NOT ALL THE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN WILL FALL OFFSHORE WITH THE STORM ITSELF AT OUR LATITUDE.
HOWEVER... SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STORM WILL AFFECT THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHIFTS OVER NE OVER THE WASHINGTON-
PHILADELPHIA REGIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
(RAIN) MONDAY AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY SNOW. HOWEVER... THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW MIXED
WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NE ZONES AS THE COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN... COLD AND
DRY AIR CHASING THE MOISTURE IS NOT A CONCERN FOR ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN IF THERE ARE A FEW SNOW FLAKES OR FLURRIES AT
THE END OF THE EVENT (MAINLY RDU NORTH AND EAST) - IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO STICK.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... CLOUDY BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. QPF WILL BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP
TO A TENTH NORTHEAST. HIGHS GENERALLY 40S NORTH TO 50S SOUTH. A
CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH AND
EAST... MAY BECOME A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES BEFORE THE DRY AIR WINS OUT.
BECOMING CLEAR SOUTH AND WEST. BREEZY. LOWS 25-30 WEST AND 33-35 NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...

TUE AND TUE NIGHT: EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
TUE IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A POTENT NOR`EASTER TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW/MID-LEVEL CEILINGS...ESP IN N/NE
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY /DPVA/ PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MATURING UPPER LEVEL
WAVE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM
A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. SKIES WILL CLEAR TUE NIGHT IN ASSOC/W SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE AS THE MATURE /VERTICALLY STACKED/ UPPER LOW PROGRESSES
FURTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A RELATIVELY TIGHT
MSLP GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH LOWS WED MORNING IN THE MID 20S...COLDEST ALONG THE
YADKIN RIVER WHERE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THE MOST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

WED/WED NIGHT: CLEAR SKIES...VERY DRY CONDITIONS (SFC DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS)...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WILL PERSIST DURING THE DAY WED IN THE WAKE OF THE NOR`EASTER
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE /HIGH PRESSURE/ BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S (COOLEST NE). ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY VIA NW FLOW ALOFT WED
NIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LOWS WILL
HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION.
AT THIS TIME WILL INDICATE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

THU/THU NIGHT: THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH
DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT SUFFICIENT
FORCING/ MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

FRI-SUN: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THIS
PERIOD AS NW FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO TROUGHING ALOFT ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR NONE TO
LOW...WITH CENTRAL NC ON THE DRIER/SUBSIDENT WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN OUR NEXT
SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IN ADDITION LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST...MAINLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW AM EXPECTING MOSTLY MVFR CIGS...BUT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. CURRENT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT IMPACT THE AREA
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 252018
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

ESSENTIALLY NO CHANCE OF ANY WINTERY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION WITH
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

SUNNY MILD WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
50S WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING.

FORECAST ASSESSMENT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHING NC FROM THE NW. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY
THE SAME AS THE ONE ADVERTISED IN THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES...
FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT... THEN EASTWARD NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER
MONDAY. THIS TRACK NORTH OF OUR REGION OFFERS NO CHANCE OF ANY
ACCUMULATING WINTERY PRECIPIATION ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS TRACK ESSENTIALLY KEEPS OUR REGION IN THE MILD/WARM
SIDE OF THE STORM... WITH THE COLD AIR FINALLY EXPECTED TO DIVE IN
AS THE STORM DEPARTS MONDAY NIGHT... A CLASSIC CASE OF COLD AIR
CHASING THE MOISTURE FOR US.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED MID TO LATE EVENING. THEN
CLOUDY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW AND
INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE 35-
40 RANGE. HOWEVER... LOWS SHOULD BE MET THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
CLOUDS THICKEN UP. COOLEST NE AND WARMEST FAR WEST. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN LATE IN THE NW.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS
THE COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SUNDAY...

AS THE VORTICITY ALOFT TRACKS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER MONDAY... ENERGY
WILL BE FOCUSED OFFSHORE AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
TAKE SHAPE OFF CAPE HATTERAS... THEN PULL NORTHWARD UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOST IF NOT ALL THE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN WILL FALL OFFSHORE WITH THE STORM ITSELF AT OUR LATITUDE.
HOWEVER... SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STORM WILL AFFECT THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHIFTS OVER NE OVER THE WASHINGTON-
PHILADELPHIA REGIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
(RAIN) MONDAY AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY SNOW. HOWEVER... THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW MIXED
WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NE ZONES AS THE COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN... COLD AND
DRY AIR CHASING THE MOISTURE IS NOT A CONCERN FOR ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN IF THERE ARE A FEW SNOW FLAKES OR FLURRIES AT
THE END OF THE EVENT (MAINLY RDU NORTH AND EAST) - IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO STICK.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... CLOUDY BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. QPF WILL BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP
TO A TENTH NORTHEAST. HIGHS GENERALLY 40S NORTH TO 50S SOUTH. A
CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH AND
EAST... MAY BECOME A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES BEFORE THE DRY AIR WINS OUT.
BECOMING CLEAR SOUTH AND WEST. BREEZY. LOWS 25-30 WEST AND 33-35 NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...

TUE AND TUE NIGHT: EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
TUE IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A POTENT NOR`EASTER TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW/MID-LEVEL CEILINGS...ESP IN N/NE
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY /DPVA/ PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MATURING UPPER LEVEL
WAVE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM
A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. SKIES WILL CLEAR TUE NIGHT IN ASSOC/W SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE AS THE MATURE /VERTICALLY STACKED/ UPPER LOW PROGRESSES
FURTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A RELATIVELY TIGHT
MSLP GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH LOWS WED MORNING IN THE MID 20S...COLDEST ALONG THE
YADKIN RIVER WHERE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THE MOST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

WED/WED NIGHT: CLEAR SKIES...VERY DRY CONDITIONS (SFC DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS)...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WILL PERSIST DURING THE DAY WED IN THE WAKE OF THE NOR`EASTER
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE /HIGH PRESSURE/ BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S (COOLEST NE). ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY VIA NW FLOW ALOFT WED
NIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LOWS WILL
HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION.
AT THIS TIME WILL INDICATE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

THU/THU NIGHT: THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH
DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT SUFFICIENT
FORCING/ MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

FRI-SUN: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THIS
PERIOD AS NW FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO TROUGHING ALOFT ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR NONE TO
LOW...WITH CENTRAL NC ON THE DRIER/SUBSIDENT WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1153 AM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AGAIN LATER. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. A QUICK RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUE AND WED. GUSTY NW WINDS
TO 22-25KT ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...BADGETT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 252018
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

ESSENTIALLY NO CHANCE OF ANY WINTERY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION WITH
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

SUNNY MILD WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
50S WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING.

FORECAST ASSESSMENT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHING NC FROM THE NW. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY
THE SAME AS THE ONE ADVERTISED IN THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES...
FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT... THEN EASTWARD NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER
MONDAY. THIS TRACK NORTH OF OUR REGION OFFERS NO CHANCE OF ANY
ACCUMULATING WINTERY PRECIPIATION ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS TRACK ESSENTIALLY KEEPS OUR REGION IN THE MILD/WARM
SIDE OF THE STORM... WITH THE COLD AIR FINALLY EXPECTED TO DIVE IN
AS THE STORM DEPARTS MONDAY NIGHT... A CLASSIC CASE OF COLD AIR
CHASING THE MOISTURE FOR US.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED MID TO LATE EVENING. THEN
CLOUDY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW AND
INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE 35-
40 RANGE. HOWEVER... LOWS SHOULD BE MET THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
CLOUDS THICKEN UP. COOLEST NE AND WARMEST FAR WEST. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN LATE IN THE NW.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS
THE COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SUNDAY...

AS THE VORTICITY ALOFT TRACKS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER MONDAY... ENERGY
WILL BE FOCUSED OFFSHORE AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
TAKE SHAPE OFF CAPE HATTERAS... THEN PULL NORTHWARD UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOST IF NOT ALL THE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN WILL FALL OFFSHORE WITH THE STORM ITSELF AT OUR LATITUDE.
HOWEVER... SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STORM WILL AFFECT THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHIFTS OVER NE OVER THE WASHINGTON-
PHILADELPHIA REGIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
(RAIN) MONDAY AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY SNOW. HOWEVER... THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW MIXED
WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NE ZONES AS THE COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN... COLD AND
DRY AIR CHASING THE MOISTURE IS NOT A CONCERN FOR ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN IF THERE ARE A FEW SNOW FLAKES OR FLURRIES AT
THE END OF THE EVENT (MAINLY RDU NORTH AND EAST) - IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO STICK.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... CLOUDY BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. QPF WILL BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP
TO A TENTH NORTHEAST. HIGHS GENERALLY 40S NORTH TO 50S SOUTH. A
CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH AND
EAST... MAY BECOME A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES BEFORE THE DRY AIR WINS OUT.
BECOMING CLEAR SOUTH AND WEST. BREEZY. LOWS 25-30 WEST AND 33-35 NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...

TUE AND TUE NIGHT: EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
TUE IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A POTENT NOR`EASTER TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW/MID-LEVEL CEILINGS...ESP IN N/NE
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY /DPVA/ PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MATURING UPPER LEVEL
WAVE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM
A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. SKIES WILL CLEAR TUE NIGHT IN ASSOC/W SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE AS THE MATURE /VERTICALLY STACKED/ UPPER LOW PROGRESSES
FURTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A RELATIVELY TIGHT
MSLP GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH LOWS WED MORNING IN THE MID 20S...COLDEST ALONG THE
YADKIN RIVER WHERE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THE MOST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

WED/WED NIGHT: CLEAR SKIES...VERY DRY CONDITIONS (SFC DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS)...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WILL PERSIST DURING THE DAY WED IN THE WAKE OF THE NOR`EASTER
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE /HIGH PRESSURE/ BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S (COOLEST NE). ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY VIA NW FLOW ALOFT WED
NIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LOWS WILL
HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION.
AT THIS TIME WILL INDICATE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

THU/THU NIGHT: THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH
DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT SUFFICIENT
FORCING/ MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

FRI-SUN: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THIS
PERIOD AS NW FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO TROUGHING ALOFT ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR NONE TO
LOW...WITH CENTRAL NC ON THE DRIER/SUBSIDENT WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1153 AM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AGAIN LATER. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. A QUICK RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUE AND WED. GUSTY NW WINDS
TO 22-25KT ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251906
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
206 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM SUNDAY...

THE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCED CIRRUS EVENT OVER NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
HAS ESSENTIALLY ENDED. THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATED A SHIFT
NORTHWARD AND DECREASE IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ADDITIONAL
MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A SUNNY AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME CIRRUS LATE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE W-NW LATE IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH INTO THE MID 50S WITH LIGHT SW WIND.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
APPROACH OF THE VORT MAX FROM THE NW. MILD SW FLOW AND THICKENING
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM SUNDAY...

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF NC. MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY
WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE TRACK BUT IN GENERAL THE FIRST WAVE
MOVES INTO NC MONDAY MORNING. SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET WILL HELP PROVIDE SOME
LIFT ABOVE 500 MB BUT BELOW THAT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE JUST
STARTING TO DEEPEN. THEREFORE LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND SATURATION
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT BAY. IN
GENERAL...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A LIQUID RAIN EVENT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGHS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO TRACK OF THE LOW BUT EXPECT UPPER
40S NORTH TO LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH AS A GOOD STARTING POINT.

LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE COAST AND
REALLY START TO DEEPEN AND START TO IMPORT A LOT MORE MOISTURE OFF
OF THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. BY THIS TIME HOWEVER...LOW WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST FOR US TO HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT HEAVY RAIN THREAT HERE IN
CENTRAL NC. THE ATTENTION AT THIS TIME WILL THEN TURN TO A SECONDARY
WAVE ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST WAVE DIVING DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME A COOLING AND DRYING TREND WILL
HAVE INITIATED BUT THERE STILL COULD BE ENOUGH SATURATION FOR SOME
PRECIPIATION. BY 00Z TUESDAY WETBULB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
REACH THE FREEZING MARK IN THE TRIAD...AND DOWN TO RALEIGH BY 06Z
TUESDAY. IF SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IS LEFT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT IN THE SECONDARY WAVE TO PRODUCE A QUICK RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER.
THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT RATHER QUICKLY IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...SO THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS IS NOT VERY HIGH BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOST PRECIPITATION TO BE LIGHT AND ALL LIQUID.

OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WITH VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ENDING EARLIER IN THE DAY...THE QUESTION
OF POSSIBLE BLACK ICE IS A LOGICAL ONE FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A
COUPLE OF THINGS ARE STACKING UP AGAINST THIS AT THIS POINT.
FIRST...WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 KNOTS AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS...WHICH WAS ALREADY LIGHT AMOUNTS TO BEGIN WITH...SO IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT ROADS COULD BE DRY BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP
BELOW FREEZING. EVEN IF THEY ARE NOT...VERY WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHS EARLIER IN THE DAY NEAR 50 DEGREES WOULD BE HARD TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY ICE. CANT RULE OUT A FEW ICY PATCHES
BUT OVERALL THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...

TUE AND TUE NIGHT: EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
TUE IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A POTENT NOR`EASTER TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW/MID-LEVEL CEILINGS...ESP IN N/NE
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY /DPVA/ PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MATURING UPPER LEVEL
WAVE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM
A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. SKIES WILL CLEAR TUE NIGHT IN ASSOC/W SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE AS THE MATURE /VERTICALLY STACKED/ UPPER LOW PROGRESSES
FURTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A RELATIVELY TIGHT
MSLP GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH LOWS WED MORNING IN THE MID 20S...COLDEST ALONG THE
YADKIN RIVER WHERE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THE MOST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

WED/WED NIGHT: CLEAR SKIES...VERY DRY CONDITIONS (SFC DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS)...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WILL PERSIST DURING THE DAY WED IN THE WAKE OF THE NOR`EASTER
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE /HIGH PRESSURE/ BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S (COOLEST NE). ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY VIA NW FLOW ALOFT WED
NIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LOWS WILL
HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION.
AT THIS TIME WILL INDICATE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

THU/THU NIGHT: THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH
DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT SUFFICIENT
FORCING/ MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

FRI-SUN: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THIS
PERIOD AS NW FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO TROUGHING ALOFT ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR NONE TO
LOW...WITH CENTRAL NC ON THE DRIER/SUBSIDENT WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1153 AM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AGAIN LATER. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. A QUICK RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUE AND WED. GUSTY NW WINDS
TO 22-25KT ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251906
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
206 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM SUNDAY...

THE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCED CIRRUS EVENT OVER NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
HAS ESSENTIALLY ENDED. THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATED A SHIFT
NORTHWARD AND DECREASE IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ADDITIONAL
MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A SUNNY AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME CIRRUS LATE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE W-NW LATE IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH INTO THE MID 50S WITH LIGHT SW WIND.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
APPROACH OF THE VORT MAX FROM THE NW. MILD SW FLOW AND THICKENING
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM SUNDAY...

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF NC. MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY
WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE TRACK BUT IN GENERAL THE FIRST WAVE
MOVES INTO NC MONDAY MORNING. SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET WILL HELP PROVIDE SOME
LIFT ABOVE 500 MB BUT BELOW THAT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE JUST
STARTING TO DEEPEN. THEREFORE LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND SATURATION
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT BAY. IN
GENERAL...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A LIQUID RAIN EVENT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGHS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO TRACK OF THE LOW BUT EXPECT UPPER
40S NORTH TO LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH AS A GOOD STARTING POINT.

LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE COAST AND
REALLY START TO DEEPEN AND START TO IMPORT A LOT MORE MOISTURE OFF
OF THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. BY THIS TIME HOWEVER...LOW WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST FOR US TO HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT HEAVY RAIN THREAT HERE IN
CENTRAL NC. THE ATTENTION AT THIS TIME WILL THEN TURN TO A SECONDARY
WAVE ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST WAVE DIVING DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME A COOLING AND DRYING TREND WILL
HAVE INITIATED BUT THERE STILL COULD BE ENOUGH SATURATION FOR SOME
PRECIPIATION. BY 00Z TUESDAY WETBULB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
REACH THE FREEZING MARK IN THE TRIAD...AND DOWN TO RALEIGH BY 06Z
TUESDAY. IF SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IS LEFT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT IN THE SECONDARY WAVE TO PRODUCE A QUICK RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER.
THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT RATHER QUICKLY IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...SO THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS IS NOT VERY HIGH BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOST PRECIPITATION TO BE LIGHT AND ALL LIQUID.

OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WITH VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ENDING EARLIER IN THE DAY...THE QUESTION
OF POSSIBLE BLACK ICE IS A LOGICAL ONE FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A
COUPLE OF THINGS ARE STACKING UP AGAINST THIS AT THIS POINT.
FIRST...WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 KNOTS AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS...WHICH WAS ALREADY LIGHT AMOUNTS TO BEGIN WITH...SO IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT ROADS COULD BE DRY BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP
BELOW FREEZING. EVEN IF THEY ARE NOT...VERY WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHS EARLIER IN THE DAY NEAR 50 DEGREES WOULD BE HARD TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY ICE. CANT RULE OUT A FEW ICY PATCHES
BUT OVERALL THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...

TUE AND TUE NIGHT: EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
TUE IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A POTENT NOR`EASTER TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW/MID-LEVEL CEILINGS...ESP IN N/NE
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY /DPVA/ PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MATURING UPPER LEVEL
WAVE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM
A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. SKIES WILL CLEAR TUE NIGHT IN ASSOC/W SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE AS THE MATURE /VERTICALLY STACKED/ UPPER LOW PROGRESSES
FURTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A RELATIVELY TIGHT
MSLP GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH LOWS WED MORNING IN THE MID 20S...COLDEST ALONG THE
YADKIN RIVER WHERE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THE MOST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

WED/WED NIGHT: CLEAR SKIES...VERY DRY CONDITIONS (SFC DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS)...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WILL PERSIST DURING THE DAY WED IN THE WAKE OF THE NOR`EASTER
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE /HIGH PRESSURE/ BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S (COOLEST NE). ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY VIA NW FLOW ALOFT WED
NIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LOWS WILL
HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION.
AT THIS TIME WILL INDICATE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

THU/THU NIGHT: THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH
DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT SUFFICIENT
FORCING/ MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

FRI-SUN: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THIS
PERIOD AS NW FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO TROUGHING ALOFT ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR NONE TO
LOW...WITH CENTRAL NC ON THE DRIER/SUBSIDENT WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1153 AM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AGAIN LATER. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. A QUICK RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUE AND WED. GUSTY NW WINDS
TO 22-25KT ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...BADGETT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 251702
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1153 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM SUNDAY...

THE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCED CIRRUS EVENT OVER NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
HAS ESSENTIALLY ENDED. THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATED A SHIFT
NORTHWARD AND DECREASE IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ADDITIONAL
MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A SUNNY AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME CIRRUS LATE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE W-NW LATE IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH INTO THE MID 50S WITH LIGHT SW WIND.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
APPROACH OF THE VORT MAX FROM THE NW. MILD SW FLOW AND THICKENING
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM SUNDAY...

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF NC. MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY
WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE TRACK BUT IN GENERAL THE FIRST WAVE
MOVES INTO NC MONDAY MORNING. SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET WILL HELP PROVIDE SOME
LIFT ABOVE 500 MB BUT BELOW THAT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE JUST
STARTING TO DEEPEN. THEREFORE LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND SATURATION
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT BAY. IN
GENERAL...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A LIQUID RAIN EVENT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGHS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO TRACK OF THE LOW BUT EXPECT UPPER
40S NORTH TO LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH AS A GOOD STARTING POINT.

LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE COAST AND
REALLY START TO DEEPEN AND START TO IMPORT A LOT MORE MOISTURE OFF
OF THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. BY THIS TIME HOWEVER...LOW WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST FOR US TO HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT HEAVY RAIN THREAT HERE IN
CENTRAL NC. THE ATTENTION AT THIS TIME WILL THEN TURN TO A SECONDARY
WAVE ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST WAVE DIVING DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME A COOLING AND DRYING TREND WILL
HAVE INITIATED BUT THERE STILL COULD BE ENOUGH SATURATION FOR SOME
PRECIPIATION. BY 00Z TUESDAY WETBULB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
REACH THE FREEZING MARK IN THE TRIAD...AND DOWN TO RALEIGH BY 06Z
TUESDAY. IF SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IS LEFT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT IN THE SECONDARY WAVE TO PRODUCE A QUICK RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER.
THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT RATHER QUICKLY IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...SO THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS IS NOT VERY HIGH BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOST PRECIPITATION TO BE LIGHT AND ALL LIQUID.

OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WITH VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ENDING EARLIER IN THE DAY...THE QUESTION
OF POSSIBLE BLACK ICE IS A LOGICAL ONE FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A
COUPLE OF THINGS ARE STACKING UP AGAINST THIS AT THIS POINT.
FIRST...WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 KNOTS AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS...WHICH WAS ALREADY LIGHT AMOUNTS TO BEGIN WITH...SO IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT ROADS COULD BE DRY BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP
BELOW FREEZING. EVEN IF THEY ARE NOT...VERY WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHS EARLIER IN THE DAY NEAR 50 DEGREES WOULD BE HARD TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY ICE. CANT RULE OUT A FEW ICY PATCHES
BUT OVERALL THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...

TUE/TUE NIGHT: THE POLAR FRONT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED SOUTH OF NC... AS
THE SURFACE LOW BOMBS OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. SHEARED VORTICITY
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SE AND EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO THE
BASE OF THE MEAN POLAR TROUGH. WE MAINTAIN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE FROM 925 MB UP THROUGH 600 MB (WITH SOME VARIABILITY AMONG
THE MODELS REGARDING SHALLOW DRY LAYERS THROUGH THIS DEPTH)... SO
EXPECT TO RETAIN A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY... BUT
ANY PRECIP IS APT TO BE QUITE PATCHY WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS
EXPECTED... AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT. WILL LEAVE POPS UNDER 15%. DESPITE SOME LOW LEVEL
MIXING... THICKNESSES DROP TO VALUES NEARLY 20 M BELOW NORMAL...
SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH WHEN
FACTORING IN CLOUD COVER. THE COLUMN DRIES OUT TUE NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE OH VALLEY ATTEMPTS TO PUSH OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH A SLACKENING MSLP GRADIENT AND LOWERING WIND SPEEDS
UNDER CLEARING SKIES... EXPECT CHILLY LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S.

WED-THU: THE MID LEVEL POLAR LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHEAST
WITH THE MEAN TROUGH FINALLY PUSHING EASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST
EARLY WED... LEAVING NC BENEATH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING.
THIS WILL GENERATE MAINLY QUIET WEATHER AND A GRADUAL MODIFICATION
OF TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE OVER
THE CAROLINAS WED BEFORE PUSHING SOUTHWARD TO OVER FL AND OFF THE SE
COAST THU. ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST WED NIGHT WILL CROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY REGION LATE THU... AND A SHOT OF WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA
ACROSS NC ALONG WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MISS
VALLEY INTO THE MIDSOUTH) AND ACCELERATING CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL LEAD TO INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS
WITH LOWERING BASES THU. EXPECT HIGHS WED MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER
40S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S WED NIGHT AND
HIGHS THU IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

THU NIGHT-SAT: THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE
OH VALLEY SWINGS THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES WHILE AMPLIFYING THU
NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WITH PROJECTED PW VALUES JUST A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL... SO DESPITE DECENT MID-LEVEL DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING... EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE BRIEF AND LIGHT... AND
WILL KEEP POPS LOW. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF FRI
INTO FRI NIGHT... WITH INITIALLY BLUSTERY NW WINDS POST-FRONT
WEAKENING FRI NIGHT. PLEASANT WEATHER SAT WITH BRIEF FLAT OR
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
NOSING INTO NC FROM THE GULF STATES. MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY START TO
DIVERGE HERE BUT WE MAY SEE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE DIVING THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SAT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ENERGY EMANATING FROM THE CLOSED LOW OFF BAJA STREAKING EASTWARD
INTO NC... MEANING INCREASING CLOUDS SAT. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1153 AM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AGAIN LATER. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. A QUICK RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUE AND WED. GUSTY NW WINDS
TO 22-25KT ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251654
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1153 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM SUNDAY...

THE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCED CIRRUS EVENT OVER NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
HAS ESSENTIALLY ENDED. THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATED A SHIFT
NORTHWARD AND DECREASE IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ADDITIONAL
MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A SUNNY AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME CIRRUS LATE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE W-NW LATE IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH INTO THE MID 50S WITH LIGHT SW WIND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM SUNDAY...

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF NC. MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY
WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE TRACK BUT IN GENERAL THE FIRST WAVE
MOVES INTO NC MONDAY MORNING. SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET WILL HELP PROVIDE SOME
LIFT ABOVE 500 MB BUT BELOW THAT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE JUST
STARTING TO DEEPEN. THEREFORE LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND SATURATION
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT BAY. IN
GENERAL...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A LIQUID RAIN EVENT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGHS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO TRACK OF THE LOW BUT EXPECT UPPER
40S NORTH TO LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH AS A GOOD STARTING POINT.

LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE COAST AND
REALLY START TO DEEPEN AND START TO IMPORT A LOT MORE MOISTURE OFF
OF THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. BY THIS TIME HOWEVER...LOW WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST FOR US TO HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT HEAVY RAIN THREAT HERE IN
CENTRAL NC. THE ATTENTION AT THIS TIME WILL THEN TURN TO A SECONDARY
WAVE ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST WAVE DIVING DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME A COOLING AND DRYING TREND WILL
HAVE INITIATED BUT THERE STILL COULD BE ENOUGH SATURATION FOR SOME
PRECIPIATION. BY 00Z TUESDAY WETBULB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
REACH THE FREEZING MARK IN THE TRIAD...AND DOWN TO RALEIGH BY 06Z
TUESDAY. IF SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IS LEFT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT IN THE SECONDARY WAVE TO PRODUCE A QUICK RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER.
THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT RATHER QUICKLY IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...SO THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS IS NOT VERY HIGH BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOST PRECIPITATION TO BE LIGHT AND ALL LIQUID.

OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WITH VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ENDING EARLIER IN THE DAY...THE QUESTION
OF POSSIBLE BLACK ICE IS A LOGICAL ONE FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A
COUPLE OF THINGS ARE STACKING UP AGAINST THIS AT THIS POINT.
FIRST...WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 KNOTS AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS...WHICH WAS ALREADY LIGHT AMOUNTS TO BEGIN WITH...SO IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT ROADS COULD BE DRY BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP
BELOW FREEZING. EVEN IF THEY ARE NOT...VERY WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHS EARLIER IN THE DAY NEAR 50 DEGREES WOULD BE HARD TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY ICE. CANT RULE OUT A FEW ICY PATCHES
BUT OVERALL THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...

TUE/TUE NIGHT: THE POLAR FRONT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED SOUTH OF NC... AS
THE SURFACE LOW BOMBS OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. SHEARED VORTICITY
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SE AND EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO THE
BASE OF THE MEAN POLAR TROUGH. WE MAINTAIN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE FROM 925 MB UP THROUGH 600 MB (WITH SOME VARIABILITY AMONG
THE MODELS REGARDING SHALLOW DRY LAYERS THROUGH THIS DEPTH)... SO
EXPECT TO RETAIN A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY... BUT
ANY PRECIP IS APT TO BE QUITE PATCHY WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS
EXPECTED... AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT. WILL LEAVE POPS UNDER 15%. DESPITE SOME LOW LEVEL
MIXING... THICKNESSES DROP TO VALUES NEARLY 20 M BELOW NORMAL...
SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH WHEN
FACTORING IN CLOUD COVER. THE COLUMN DRIES OUT TUE NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE OH VALLEY ATTEMPTS TO PUSH OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH A SLACKENING MSLP GRADIENT AND LOWERING WIND SPEEDS
UNDER CLEARING SKIES... EXPECT CHILLY LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S.

WED-THU: THE MID LEVEL POLAR LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHEAST
WITH THE MEAN TROUGH FINALLY PUSHING EASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST
EARLY WED... LEAVING NC BENEATH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING.
THIS WILL GENERATE MAINLY QUIET WEATHER AND A GRADUAL MODIFICATION
OF TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE OVER
THE CAROLINAS WED BEFORE PUSHING SOUTHWARD TO OVER FL AND OFF THE SE
COAST THU. ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST WED NIGHT WILL CROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY REGION LATE THU... AND A SHOT OF WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA
ACROSS NC ALONG WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MISS
VALLEY INTO THE MIDSOUTH) AND ACCELERATING CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL LEAD TO INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS
WITH LOWERING BASES THU. EXPECT HIGHS WED MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER
40S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S WED NIGHT AND
HIGHS THU IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

THU NIGHT-SAT: THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE
OH VALLEY SWINGS THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES WHILE AMPLIFYING THU
NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WITH PROJECTED PW VALUES JUST A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL... SO DESPITE DECENT MID-LEVEL DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING... EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE BRIEF AND LIGHT... AND
WILL KEEP POPS LOW. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF FRI
INTO FRI NIGHT... WITH INITIALLY BLUSTERY NW WINDS POST-FRONT
WEAKENING FRI NIGHT. PLEASANT WEATHER SAT WITH BRIEF FLAT OR
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
NOSING INTO NC FROM THE GULF STATES. MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY START TO
DIVERGE HERE BUT WE MAY SEE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE DIVING THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SAT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ENERGY EMANATING FROM THE CLOSED LOW OFF BAJA STREAKING EASTWARD
INTO NC... MEANING INCREASING CLOUDS SAT. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1153 AM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AGAIN LATER. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. A QUICK RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUE AND WED. GUSTY NW WINDS
TO 22-25KT ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251154
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
654 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF
COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT... THEN SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK... AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM SUNDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED OVER THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING BUT THIS WONT
APPROACH UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...LEAVING US WITH SETTLED WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY. AT THIS HOUR THERE ARE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING
TO SOME FAIRLY COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE A
SMATTERING OF UPPER 20S STARTING TO COME INTO THE OBSERVATIONS AT
THE USUALLY COLDER RURAL AREAS. THIS IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH THE
FAIRLY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS PATTERN COULD START
TO CHANGE HOWEVER AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS AND WATER VAPOR SHOWS
INCREASED MOISTURE HEADING TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS. THAT BEING
SAID..WINDS ARE FAIRLY WESTERLY AND THE TRAJECTORY OF THE MOISTURE
COULD HAVE CIRRUS...IF IT OCCURS...ENDING UP PRIMARILY IN VA AS
OPPOSED TO NC. REGARDLESS OF OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT...HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO START TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE A FAIRLY NICE DAY AHEAD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S NW TO
UPPER 50S SE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST BACKING TO SOUTHWESTERLY
BY LATER IN THE DAY AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTING TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE
IN THE TRIAD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM SUNDAY...

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF NC. MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY
WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE TRACK BUT IN GENERAL THE FIRST WAVE
MOVES INTO NC MONDAY MORNING. SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET WILL HELP PROVIDE SOME
LIFT ABOVE 500 MB BUT BELOW THAT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE JUST
STARTING TO DEEPEN. THEREFORE LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND SATURATION
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT BAY. IN
GENERAL...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A LIQUID RAIN EVENT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGHS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO TRACK OF THE LOW BUT EXPECT UPPER
40S NORTH TO LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH AS A GOOD STARTING POINT.

LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE COAST AND
REALLY START TO DEEPEN AND START TO IMPORT A LOT MORE MOISTURE OFF
OF THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. BY THIS TIME HOWEVER...LOW WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST FOR US TO HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT HEAVY RAIN THREAT HERE IN
CENTRAL NC. THE ATTENTION AT THIS TIME WILL THEN TURN TO A SECONDARY
WAVE ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST WAVE DIVING DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME A COOLING AND DRYING TREND WILL
HAVE INITIATED BUT THERE STILL COULD BE ENOUGH SATURATION FOR SOME
PRECIPIATION. BY 00Z TUESDAY WETBULB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
REACH THE FREEZING MARK IN THE TRIAD...AND DOWN TO RALEIGH BY 06Z
TUESDAY. IF SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IS LEFT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT IN THE SECONDARY WAVE TO PRODUCE A QUICK RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER.
THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT RATHER QUICKLY IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...SO THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS IS NOT VERY HIGH BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOST PRECIPITATION TO BE LIGHT AND ALL LIQUID.

OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WITH VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ENDING EARLIER IN THE DAY...THE QUESTION
OF POSSIBLE BLACK ICE IS A LOGICAL ONE FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A
COUPLE OF THINGS ARE STACKING UP AGAINST THIS AT THIS POINT.
FIRST...WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 KNOTS AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS...WHICH WAS ALREADY LIGHT AMOUNTS TO BEGIN WITH...SO IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT ROADS COULD BE DRY BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP
BELOW FREEZING. EVEN IF THEY ARE NOT...VERY WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHS EARLIER IN THE DAY NEAR 50 DEGREES WOULD BE HARD TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY ICE. CANT RULE OUT A FEW ICY PATCHES
BUT OVERALL THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...

TUE/TUE NIGHT: THE POLAR FRONT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED SOUTH OF NC... AS
THE SURFACE LOW BOMBS OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. SHEARED VORTICITY
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SE AND EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO THE
BASE OF THE MEAN POLAR TROUGH. WE MAINTAIN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE FROM 925 MB UP THROUGH 600 MB (WITH SOME VARIABILITY AMONG
THE MODELS REGARDING SHALLOW DRY LAYERS THROUGH THIS DEPTH)... SO
EXPECT TO RETAIN A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY... BUT
ANY PRECIP IS APT TO BE QUITE PATCHY WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS
EXPECTED... AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT. WILL LEAVE POPS UNDER 15%. DESPITE SOME LOW LEVEL
MIXING... THICKNESSES DROP TO VALUES NEARLY 20 M BELOW NORMAL...
SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH WHEN
FACTORING IN CLOUD COVER. THE COLUMN DRIES OUT TUE NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE OH VALLEY ATTEMPTS TO PUSH OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH A SLACKENING MSLP GRADIENT AND LOWERING WIND SPEEDS
UNDER CLEARING SKIES... EXPECT CHILLY LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S.

WED-THU: THE MID LEVEL POLAR LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHEAST
WITH THE MEAN TROUGH FINALLY PUSHING EASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST
EARLY WED... LEAVING NC BENEATH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING.
THIS WILL GENERATE MAINLY QUIET WEATHER AND A GRADUAL MODIFICATION
OF TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE OVER
THE CAROLINAS WED BEFORE PUSHING SOUTHWARD TO OVER FL AND OFF THE SE
COAST THU. ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST WED NIGHT WILL CROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY REGION LATE THU... AND A SHOT OF WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA
ACROSS NC ALONG WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MISS
VALLEY INTO THE MIDSOUTH) AND ACCELERATING CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL LEAD TO INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS
WITH LOWERING BASES THU. EXPECT HIGHS WED MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER
40S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S WED NIGHT AND
HIGHS THU IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

THU NIGHT-SAT: THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE
OH VALLEY SWINGS THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES WHILE AMPLIFYING THU
NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WITH PROJECTED PW VALUES JUST A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL... SO DESPITE DECENT MID-LEVEL DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING... EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE BRIEF AND LIGHT... AND
WILL KEEP POPS LOW. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF FRI
INTO FRI NIGHT... WITH INITIALLY BLUSTERY NW WINDS POST-FRONT
WEAKENING FRI NIGHT. PLEASANT WEATHER SAT WITH BRIEF FLAT OR
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
NOSING INTO NC FROM THE GULF STATES. MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY START TO
DIVERGE HERE BUT WE MAY SEE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE DIVING THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SAT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ENERGY EMANATING FROM THE CLOSED LOW OFF BAJA STREAKING EASTWARD
INTO NC... MEANING INCREASING CLOUDS SAT. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM SUNDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE VFR AS ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS THREATEN THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS AT KINT AND KGSO BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z BUT
OTHERWISE 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE ONSET
OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN THE TRIAD AROUND 8Z OR SO AND
THEN DOWN TO IFR OR EVEN POSSIBLY LIFR JUST BEFORE 12Z. FURTHER
EAST... MIGHT ONLY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR
KRDU AND KRWI AND IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT KFAY REMAINS VFR THROUGH
THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TO
THE AREA ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM: THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRUSH NORTHERN LOCALES ON
MONDAY WITH PRECIPIATION EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN. THIS MAY CAUSE
SOME PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MIDWEEK WITH A WEAK SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT POSSIBLY PRESENTING SOME ADVERSE CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 250758
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
258 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF
COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT... THEN SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK... AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM SUNDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED OVER THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING BUT THIS WONT
APPROACH UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...LEAVING US WITH SETTLED WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY. AT THIS HOUR THERE ARE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING
TO SOME FAIRLY COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE A
SMATTERING OF UPPER 20S STARTING TO COME INTO THE OBSERVATIONS AT
THE USUALLY COLDER RURAL AREAS. THIS IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH THE
FAIRLY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS PATTERN COULD START
TO CHANGE HOWEVER AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS AND WATER VAPOR SHOWS
INCREASED MOISTURE HEADING TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS. THAT BEING
SAID..WINDS ARE FAIRLY WESTERLY AND THE TRAJECTORY OF THE MOISTURE
COULD HAVE CIRRUS...IF IT OCCURS...ENDING UP PRIMARILY IN VA AS
OPPOSED TO NC. REGARDLESS OF OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT...HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO START TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE A FAIRLY NICE DAY AHEAD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S NW TO
UPPER 50S SE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST BACKING TO SOUTHWESTERLY
BY LATER IN THE DAY AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTING TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE
IN THE TRIAD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM SUNDAY...

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF NC. MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY
WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE TRACK BUT IN GENERAL THE FIRST WAVE
MOVES INTO NC MONDAY MORNING. SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET WILL HELP PROVIDE SOME
LIFT ABOVE 500 MB BUT BELOW THAT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE JUST
STARTING TO DEEPEN. THEREFORE LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND SATURATION
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT BAY. IN
GENERAL...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A LIQUID RAIN EVENT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGHS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO TRACK OF THE LOW BUT EXPECT UPPER
40S NORTH TO LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH AS A GOOD STARTING POINT.

LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE COAST AND
REALLY START TO DEEPEN AND START TO IMPORT A LOT MORE MOISTURE OFF
OF THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. BY THIS TIME HOWEVER...LOW WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST FOR US TO HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT HEAVY RAIN THREAT HERE IN
CENTRAL NC. THE ATTENTION AT THIS TIME WILL THEN TURN TO A SECONDARY
WAVE ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST WAVE DIVING DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME A COOLING AND DRYING TREND WILL
HAVE INITIATED BUT THERE STILL COULD BE ENOUGH SATURATION FOR SOME
PRECIPIATION. BY 00Z TUESDAY WETBULB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
REACH THE FREEZING MARK IN THE TRIAD...AND DOWN TO RALEIGH BY 06Z
TUESDAY. IF SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IS LEFT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT IN THE SECONDARY WAVE TO PRODUCE A QUICK RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER.
THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT RATHER QUICKLY IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...SO THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS IS NOT VERY HIGH BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOST PRECIPITATION TO BE LIGHT AND ALL LIQUID.

OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WITH VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ENDING EARLIER IN THE DAY...THE QUESTION
OF POSSIBLE BLACK ICE IS A LOGICAL ONE FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A
COUPLE OF THINGS ARE STACKING UP AGAINST THIS AT THIS POINT.
FIRST...WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 KNOTS AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS...WHICH WAS ALREADY LIGHT AMOUNTS TO BEGIN WITH...SO IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT ROADS COULD BE DRY BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP
BELOW FREEZING. EVEN IF THEY ARE NOT...VERY WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHS EARLIER IN THE DAY NEAR 50 DEGREES WOULD BE HARD TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY ICE. CANT RULE OUT A FEW ICY PATCHES
BUT OVERALL THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...

TUE/TUE NIGHT: THE POLAR FRONT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED SOUTH OF NC... AS
THE SURFACE LOW BOMBS OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. SHEARED VORTICITY
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SE AND EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO THE
BASE OF THE MEAN POLAR TROUGH. WE MAINTAIN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE FROM 925 MB UP THROUGH 600 MB (WITH SOME VARIABILITY AMONG
THE MODELS REGARDING SHALLOW DRY LAYERS THROUGH THIS DEPTH)... SO
EXPECT TO RETAIN A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY... BUT
ANY PRECIP IS APT TO BE QUITE PATCHY WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS
EXPECTED... AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT. WILL LEAVE POPS UNDER 15%. DESPITE SOME LOW LEVEL
MIXING... THICKNESSES DROP TO VALUES NEARLY 20 M BELOW NORMAL...
SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH WHEN
FACTORING IN CLOUD COVER. THE COLUMN DRIES OUT TUE NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE OH VALLEY ATTEMPTS TO PUSH OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH A SLACKENING MSLP GRADIENT AND LOWERING WIND SPEEDS
UNDER CLEARING SKIES... EXPECT CHILLY LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S.

WED-THU: THE MID LEVEL POLAR LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHEAST
WITH THE MEAN TROUGH FINALLY PUSHING EASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST
EARLY WED... LEAVING NC BENEATH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING.
THIS WILL GENERATE MAINLY QUIET WEATHER AND A GRADUAL MODIFICATION
OF TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE OVER
THE CAROLINAS WED BEFORE PUSHING SOUTHWARD TO OVER FL AND OFF THE SE
COAST THU. ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST WED NIGHT WILL CROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY REGION LATE THU... AND A SHOT OF WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA
ACROSS NC ALONG WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MISS
VALLEY INTO THE MIDSOUTH) AND ACCELERATING CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL LEAD TO INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS
WITH LOWERING BASES THU. EXPECT HIGHS WED MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER
40S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S WED NIGHT AND
HIGHS THU IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

THU NIGHT-SAT: THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE
OH VALLEY SWINGS THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES WHILE AMPLIFYING THU
NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WITH PROJECTED PW VALUES JUST A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL... SO DESPITE DECENT MID-LEVEL DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING... EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE BRIEF AND LIGHT... AND
WILL KEEP POPS LOW. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF FRI
INTO FRI NIGHT... WITH INITIALLY BLUSTERY NW WINDS POST-FRONT
WEAKENING FRI NIGHT. PLEASANT WEATHER SAT WITH BRIEF FLAT OR
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
NOSING INTO NC FROM THE GULF STATES. MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY START TO
DIVERGE HERE BUT WE MAY SEE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE DIVING THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SAT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ENERGY EMANATING FROM THE CLOSED LOW OFF BAJA STREAKING EASTWARD
INTO NC... MEANING INCREASING CLOUDS SAT. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM SUNDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24
HOUR TAF PERIOD AS SKIES THIS EVENING ARE CLEAR AND WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND OUT OF THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LARGE ENOUGH THAT FOG SHOULD NOT
BE AN ISSUE THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THEIR COULD BE SOME
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED CIRRUS THIS MORNING THAT COULD AFFECT KINT
AND KGSO ALONG WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER ON TODAY. THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AT KINT AND KGSO MAINLY
BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY.

LONG TERM: THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRUSH NORTHERN LOCALES ON
MONDAY WITH PRECIPIATION EXPECT TO FALL AS RAIN. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MIDWEEK WITH A WEAK SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT POSSIBLY PRESENTING SOME ADVERSE CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 250758
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
258 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF
COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT... THEN SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK... AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM SUNDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED OVER THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING BUT THIS WONT
APPROACH UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...LEAVING US WITH SETTLED WEATHER FOR
SUNDAY. AT THIS HOUR THERE ARE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING
TO SOME FAIRLY COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE A
SMATTERING OF UPPER 20S STARTING TO COME INTO THE OBSERVATIONS AT
THE USUALLY COLDER RURAL AREAS. THIS IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH THE
FAIRLY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS PATTERN COULD START
TO CHANGE HOWEVER AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS AND WATER VAPOR SHOWS
INCREASED MOISTURE HEADING TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS. THAT BEING
SAID..WINDS ARE FAIRLY WESTERLY AND THE TRAJECTORY OF THE MOISTURE
COULD HAVE CIRRUS...IF IT OCCURS...ENDING UP PRIMARILY IN VA AS
OPPOSED TO NC. REGARDLESS OF OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT...HIGH CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO START TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE A FAIRLY NICE DAY AHEAD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S NW TO
UPPER 50S SE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST BACKING TO SOUTHWESTERLY
BY LATER IN THE DAY AT 5-10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTING TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE
IN THE TRIAD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM SUNDAY...

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF NC. MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY
WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE TRACK BUT IN GENERAL THE FIRST WAVE
MOVES INTO NC MONDAY MORNING. SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET WILL HELP PROVIDE SOME
LIFT ABOVE 500 MB BUT BELOW THAT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE JUST
STARTING TO DEEPEN. THEREFORE LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND SATURATION
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT BAY. IN
GENERAL...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A LIQUID RAIN EVENT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGHS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO TRACK OF THE LOW BUT EXPECT UPPER
40S NORTH TO LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH AS A GOOD STARTING POINT.

LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE COAST AND
REALLY START TO DEEPEN AND START TO IMPORT A LOT MORE MOISTURE OFF
OF THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. BY THIS TIME HOWEVER...LOW WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST FOR US TO HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT HEAVY RAIN THREAT HERE IN
CENTRAL NC. THE ATTENTION AT THIS TIME WILL THEN TURN TO A SECONDARY
WAVE ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST WAVE DIVING DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME A COOLING AND DRYING TREND WILL
HAVE INITIATED BUT THERE STILL COULD BE ENOUGH SATURATION FOR SOME
PRECIPIATION. BY 00Z TUESDAY WETBULB TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
REACH THE FREEZING MARK IN THE TRIAD...AND DOWN TO RALEIGH BY 06Z
TUESDAY. IF SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IS LEFT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT IN THE SECONDARY WAVE TO PRODUCE A QUICK RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER.
THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT RATHER QUICKLY IN THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...SO THE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS IS NOT VERY HIGH BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOST PRECIPITATION TO BE LIGHT AND ALL LIQUID.

OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. WITH VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND RAIN ENDING EARLIER IN THE DAY...THE QUESTION
OF POSSIBLE BLACK ICE IS A LOGICAL ONE FOR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A
COUPLE OF THINGS ARE STACKING UP AGAINST THIS AT THIS POINT.
FIRST...WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 KNOTS AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS...WHICH WAS ALREADY LIGHT AMOUNTS TO BEGIN WITH...SO IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT ROADS COULD BE DRY BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP
BELOW FREEZING. EVEN IF THEY ARE NOT...VERY WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHS EARLIER IN THE DAY NEAR 50 DEGREES WOULD BE HARD TO
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY ICE. CANT RULE OUT A FEW ICY PATCHES
BUT OVERALL THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...

TUE/TUE NIGHT: THE POLAR FRONT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED SOUTH OF NC... AS
THE SURFACE LOW BOMBS OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. SHEARED VORTICITY
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SE AND EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO THE
BASE OF THE MEAN POLAR TROUGH. WE MAINTAIN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE FROM 925 MB UP THROUGH 600 MB (WITH SOME VARIABILITY AMONG
THE MODELS REGARDING SHALLOW DRY LAYERS THROUGH THIS DEPTH)... SO
EXPECT TO RETAIN A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY... BUT
ANY PRECIP IS APT TO BE QUITE PATCHY WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS
EXPECTED... AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT. WILL LEAVE POPS UNDER 15%. DESPITE SOME LOW LEVEL
MIXING... THICKNESSES DROP TO VALUES NEARLY 20 M BELOW NORMAL...
SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH WHEN
FACTORING IN CLOUD COVER. THE COLUMN DRIES OUT TUE NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE OH VALLEY ATTEMPTS TO PUSH OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH A SLACKENING MSLP GRADIENT AND LOWERING WIND SPEEDS
UNDER CLEARING SKIES... EXPECT CHILLY LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S.

WED-THU: THE MID LEVEL POLAR LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHEAST
WITH THE MEAN TROUGH FINALLY PUSHING EASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST
EARLY WED... LEAVING NC BENEATH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING.
THIS WILL GENERATE MAINLY QUIET WEATHER AND A GRADUAL MODIFICATION
OF TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE OVER
THE CAROLINAS WED BEFORE PUSHING SOUTHWARD TO OVER FL AND OFF THE SE
COAST THU. ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST WED NIGHT WILL CROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY REGION LATE THU... AND A SHOT OF WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA
ACROSS NC ALONG WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MISS
VALLEY INTO THE MIDSOUTH) AND ACCELERATING CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL LEAD TO INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS
WITH LOWERING BASES THU. EXPECT HIGHS WED MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER
40S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S WED NIGHT AND
HIGHS THU IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

THU NIGHT-SAT: THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE
OH VALLEY SWINGS THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES WHILE AMPLIFYING THU
NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WITH PROJECTED PW VALUES JUST A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL... SO DESPITE DECENT MID-LEVEL DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING... EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE BRIEF AND LIGHT... AND
WILL KEEP POPS LOW. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF FRI
INTO FRI NIGHT... WITH INITIALLY BLUSTERY NW WINDS POST-FRONT
WEAKENING FRI NIGHT. PLEASANT WEATHER SAT WITH BRIEF FLAT OR
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
NOSING INTO NC FROM THE GULF STATES. MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY START TO
DIVERGE HERE BUT WE MAY SEE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE DIVING THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SAT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ENERGY EMANATING FROM THE CLOSED LOW OFF BAJA STREAKING EASTWARD
INTO NC... MEANING INCREASING CLOUDS SAT. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM SUNDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24
HOUR TAF PERIOD AS SKIES THIS EVENING ARE CLEAR AND WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND OUT OF THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LARGE ENOUGH THAT FOG SHOULD NOT
BE AN ISSUE THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THEIR COULD BE SOME
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED CIRRUS THIS MORNING THAT COULD AFFECT KINT
AND KGSO ALONG WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER ON TODAY. THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AT KINT AND KGSO MAINLY
BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY.

LONG TERM: THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRUSH NORTHERN LOCALES ON
MONDAY WITH PRECIPIATION EXPECT TO FALL AS RAIN. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MIDWEEK WITH A WEAK SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT POSSIBLY PRESENTING SOME ADVERSE CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 250636
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
135 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF
COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT... THEN SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK... AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 832 PM SATURDAY...

STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY S/W TROUGH LIFTING UP
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE WAVE...SO EXPECT ONLY
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO SKIRT MOSTLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL DRIER AIR FEED FROM THE WEST SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
~5F DEGREES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY... AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO A VERY MILD AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING OUR REGION. A
RAPID INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA... COOLEST IN THE NW WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE EARLIER.

SUNDAY NIGHT... THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM DIVING
SOUTHEAST IN THE "ALBERTA CLIPPER" FASHION. USING THE ENSEMBLE
APPROACH GIVEN SOME 50-100 MILE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST TRACK
WITHIN THE MODEL SUITE... A TRACK NEARLY BISECTING NORTH CAROLINA
FROM NW TO SE WOULD BE AN AVERAGE RESULT. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL
EUROPEAN IS A GOOD REPRESENTATIVE TO START WITH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST
A SURFACE WAVE TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO NC LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH REDEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE OF CAPE HATTERAS MONDAY.
FOR A WINTER P-TYPE THREAT... THE TYPICAL "CLIPPER LOW" TRACK WOULD
MOST LIKELY HAVE TO TRACK 50-100 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK.

THEREFORE... SUNDAY NIGHT... ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
OVER OUR REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIQUID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WE WILL STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH ALSO
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES TYPICALLY ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
FORECAST MOS GUIDANCE WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR EVENTS.

EXPECT TO SEE THICKENING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY EVENING LEADING TO A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING (IN THE 37-42 RANGE
NW TO SE). WE WILL CARRY LOW END "CHANCE" POP IN THE NORTH FOR NOW
WHICH IS 25-30 PERCENT FOR MEASURABLE RAIN (0.01). ANYTHING THAT
FALLS THROUGH 12Z/MON WOULD BE RAIN AND WOULD BE LIGHT AND IN THE NW
ZONES.

MONDAY... THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SHORT
WAVE CLIPPER SYSTEM PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS... AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL NC.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL NOT SHOW MUCH INCLINATION TO RISE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DUE
TO CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT PRECIP...BUT SHOULD STILL REACH THE MID 40S
DUE TO THE MILD...MID 30S...START TO THE DAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH
MAY REACH THE MID 50S WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE.

THE COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR AFTER DEEPER MOISTURE HAS PULLED OUT...AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS OF POTENTIAL SNOW
SHOWERS MIXING WITH THE DEPARTING RAIN AS LEVELS ABOVE -12 DRY OUT.
PRECIP WILL BE ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO AROUND FREEZING SOUTH. CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WITH
LAGGING MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FAST UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...

TUE/TUE NIGHT: THE POLAR FRONT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED SOUTH OF NC... AS
THE SURFACE LOW BOMBS OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. SHEARED VORTICITY
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SE AND EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO THE
BASE OF THE MEAN POLAR TROUGH. WE MAINTAIN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE FROM 925 MB UP THROUGH 600 MB (WITH SOME VARIABILITY AMONG
THE MODELS REGARDING SHALLOW DRY LAYERS THROUGH THIS DEPTH)... SO
EXPECT TO RETAIN A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY... BUT
ANY PRECIP IS APT TO BE QUITE PATCHY WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS
EXPECTED... AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT. WILL LEAVE POPS UNDER 15%. DESPITE SOME LOW LEVEL
MIXING... THICKNESSES DROP TO VALUES NEARLY 20 M BELOW NORMAL...
SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH WHEN
FACTORING IN CLOUD COVER. THE COLUMN DRIES OUT TUE NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE OH VALLEY ATTEMPTS TO PUSH OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH A SLACKENING MSLP GRADIENT AND LOWERING WIND SPEEDS
UNDER CLEARING SKIES... EXPECT CHILLY LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S.

WED-THU: THE MID LEVEL POLAR LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHEAST
WITH THE MEAN TROUGH FINALLY PUSHING EASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST
EARLY WED... LEAVING NC BENEATH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING.
THIS WILL GENERATE MAINLY QUIET WEATHER AND A GRADUAL MODIFICATION
OF TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE OVER
THE CAROLINAS WED BEFORE PUSHING SOUTHWARD TO OVER FL AND OFF THE SE
COAST THU. ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST WED NIGHT WILL CROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY REGION LATE THU... AND A SHOT OF WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA
ACROSS NC ALONG WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MISS
VALLEY INTO THE MIDSOUTH) AND ACCELERATING CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL LEAD TO INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS
WITH LOWERING BASES THU. EXPECT HIGHS WED MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER
40S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S WED NIGHT AND
HIGHS THU IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

THU NIGHT-SAT: THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE
OH VALLEY SWINGS THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES WHILE AMPLIFYING THU
NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WITH PROJECTED PW VALUES JUST A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL... SO DESPITE DECENT MID-LEVEL DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING... EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE BRIEF AND LIGHT... AND
WILL KEEP POPS LOW. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF FRI
INTO FRI NIGHT... WITH INITIALLY BLUSTERY NW WINDS POST-FRONT
WEAKENING FRI NIGHT. PLEASANT WEATHER SAT WITH BRIEF FLAT OR
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
NOSING INTO NC FROM THE GULF STATES. MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY START TO
DIVERGE HERE BUT WE MAY SEE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE DIVING THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SAT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ENERGY EMANATING FROM THE CLOSED LOW OFF BAJA STREAKING EASTWARD
INTO NC... MEANING INCREASING CLOUDS SAT. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM SUNDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24
HOUR TAF PERIOD AS SKIES THIS EVENING ARE CLEAR AND WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND OUT OF THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LARGE ENOUGH THAT FOG SHOULD NOT
BE AN ISSUE THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THEIR COULD BE SOME
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED CIRRUS THIS MORNING THAT COULD AFFECT KINT
AND KGSO ALONG WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER ON TODAY. THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AT KINT AND KGSO MAINLY
BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY.

LONG TERM: THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRUSH NORTHERN LOCALES ON
MONDAY WITH PRECIPIATION EXPECT TO FALL AS RAIN. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MIDWEEK WITH A WEAK SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT POSSIBLY PRESENTING SOME ADVERSE CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/MLM
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 250636
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
135 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF
COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT... THEN SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK... AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 832 PM SATURDAY...

STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY S/W TROUGH LIFTING UP
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE WAVE...SO EXPECT ONLY
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO SKIRT MOSTLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL DRIER AIR FEED FROM THE WEST SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
~5F DEGREES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY... AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO A VERY MILD AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING OUR REGION. A
RAPID INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA... COOLEST IN THE NW WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE EARLIER.

SUNDAY NIGHT... THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM DIVING
SOUTHEAST IN THE "ALBERTA CLIPPER" FASHION. USING THE ENSEMBLE
APPROACH GIVEN SOME 50-100 MILE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST TRACK
WITHIN THE MODEL SUITE... A TRACK NEARLY BISECTING NORTH CAROLINA
FROM NW TO SE WOULD BE AN AVERAGE RESULT. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL
EUROPEAN IS A GOOD REPRESENTATIVE TO START WITH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST
A SURFACE WAVE TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO NC LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH REDEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE OF CAPE HATTERAS MONDAY.
FOR A WINTER P-TYPE THREAT... THE TYPICAL "CLIPPER LOW" TRACK WOULD
MOST LIKELY HAVE TO TRACK 50-100 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK.

THEREFORE... SUNDAY NIGHT... ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
OVER OUR REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIQUID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WE WILL STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH ALSO
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES TYPICALLY ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
FORECAST MOS GUIDANCE WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR EVENTS.

EXPECT TO SEE THICKENING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY EVENING LEADING TO A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING (IN THE 37-42 RANGE
NW TO SE). WE WILL CARRY LOW END "CHANCE" POP IN THE NORTH FOR NOW
WHICH IS 25-30 PERCENT FOR MEASURABLE RAIN (0.01). ANYTHING THAT
FALLS THROUGH 12Z/MON WOULD BE RAIN AND WOULD BE LIGHT AND IN THE NW
ZONES.

MONDAY... THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SHORT
WAVE CLIPPER SYSTEM PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS... AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL NC.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL NOT SHOW MUCH INCLINATION TO RISE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DUE
TO CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT PRECIP...BUT SHOULD STILL REACH THE MID 40S
DUE TO THE MILD...MID 30S...START TO THE DAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH
MAY REACH THE MID 50S WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE.

THE COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR AFTER DEEPER MOISTURE HAS PULLED OUT...AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS OF POTENTIAL SNOW
SHOWERS MIXING WITH THE DEPARTING RAIN AS LEVELS ABOVE -12 DRY OUT.
PRECIP WILL BE ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO AROUND FREEZING SOUTH. CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WITH
LAGGING MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FAST UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SUNDAY...

TUE/TUE NIGHT: THE POLAR FRONT SHOULD HAVE SETTLED SOUTH OF NC... AS
THE SURFACE LOW BOMBS OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. SHEARED VORTICITY
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM SE AND EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO THE
BASE OF THE MEAN POLAR TROUGH. WE MAINTAIN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE FROM 925 MB UP THROUGH 600 MB (WITH SOME VARIABILITY AMONG
THE MODELS REGARDING SHALLOW DRY LAYERS THROUGH THIS DEPTH)... SO
EXPECT TO RETAIN A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY... BUT
ANY PRECIP IS APT TO BE QUITE PATCHY WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS
EXPECTED... AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT. WILL LEAVE POPS UNDER 15%. DESPITE SOME LOW LEVEL
MIXING... THICKNESSES DROP TO VALUES NEARLY 20 M BELOW NORMAL...
SUGGESTING HIGHS FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTH WHEN
FACTORING IN CLOUD COVER. THE COLUMN DRIES OUT TUE NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE OH VALLEY ATTEMPTS TO PUSH OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH A SLACKENING MSLP GRADIENT AND LOWERING WIND SPEEDS
UNDER CLEARING SKIES... EXPECT CHILLY LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S.

WED-THU: THE MID LEVEL POLAR LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHEAST
WITH THE MEAN TROUGH FINALLY PUSHING EASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST
EARLY WED... LEAVING NC BENEATH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING.
THIS WILL GENERATE MAINLY QUIET WEATHER AND A GRADUAL MODIFICATION
OF TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ESE OVER
THE CAROLINAS WED BEFORE PUSHING SOUTHWARD TO OVER FL AND OFF THE SE
COAST THU. ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST WED NIGHT WILL CROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY REGION LATE THU... AND A SHOT OF WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA
ACROSS NC ALONG WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MISS
VALLEY INTO THE MIDSOUTH) AND ACCELERATING CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL LEAD TO INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS
WITH LOWERING BASES THU. EXPECT HIGHS WED MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER
40S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S WED NIGHT AND
HIGHS THU IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

THU NIGHT-SAT: THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE
OH VALLEY SWINGS THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES WHILE AMPLIFYING THU
NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WITH PROJECTED PW VALUES JUST A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL... SO DESPITE DECENT MID-LEVEL DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING... EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE BRIEF AND LIGHT... AND
WILL KEEP POPS LOW. DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF FRI
INTO FRI NIGHT... WITH INITIALLY BLUSTERY NW WINDS POST-FRONT
WEAKENING FRI NIGHT. PLEASANT WEATHER SAT WITH BRIEF FLAT OR
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
NOSING INTO NC FROM THE GULF STATES. MODEL SOLUTIONS REALLY START TO
DIVERGE HERE BUT WE MAY SEE YET ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE DIVING THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION SAT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ENERGY EMANATING FROM THE CLOSED LOW OFF BAJA STREAKING EASTWARD
INTO NC... MEANING INCREASING CLOUDS SAT. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM SUNDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24
HOUR TAF PERIOD AS SKIES THIS EVENING ARE CLEAR AND WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND OUT OF THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LARGE ENOUGH THAT FOG SHOULD NOT
BE AN ISSUE THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THEIR COULD BE SOME
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED CIRRUS THIS MORNING THAT COULD AFFECT KINT
AND KGSO ALONG WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER ON TODAY. THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AT KINT AND KGSO MAINLY
BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY.

LONG TERM: THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRUSH NORTHERN LOCALES ON
MONDAY WITH PRECIPIATION EXPECT TO FALL AS RAIN. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MIDWEEK WITH A WEAK SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT POSSIBLY PRESENTING SOME ADVERSE CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/MLM
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 250553
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1253 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY... PASSING SOUTH OF NORTH CAROLINA. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 832 PM SATURDAY...


STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY S/W TROUGH LIFTING UP
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE WAVE...SO EXPECT ONLY
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO SKIRT MOSTLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL DRIER AIR FEED FROM THE WEST SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
~5F DEGREES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY... AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO A VERY MILD AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING OUR REGION. A
RAPID INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA... COOLEST IN THE NW WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE EARLIER.

SUNDAY NIGHT... THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM DIVING
SOUTHEAST IN THE "ALBERTA CLIPPER" FASHION. USING THE ENSEMBLE
APPROACH GIVEN SOME 50-100 MILE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST TRACK
WITHIN THE MODEL SUITE... A TRACK NEARLY BISECTING NORTH CAROLINA
FROM NW TO SE WOULD BE AN AVERAGE RESULT. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL
EUROPEAN IS A GOOD REPRESENTATIVE TO START WITH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST
A SURFACE WAVE TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO NC LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH REDEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE OF CAPE HATTERAS MONDAY.
FOR A WINTER P-TYPE THREAT... THE TYPICAL "CLIPPER LOW" TRACK WOULD
MOST LIKELY HAVE TO TRACK 50-100 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK.

THEREFORE... SUNDAY NIGHT... ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
OVER OUR REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIQUID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WE WILL STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH ALSO
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES TYPICALLY ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
FORECAST MOS GUIDANCE WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR EVENTS.

EXPECT TO SEE THICKENING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY EVENING LEADING TO A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING (IN THE 37-42 RANGE
NW TO SE). WE WILL CARRY LOW END "CHANCE" POP IN THE NORTH FOR NOW
WHICH IS 25-30 PERCENT FOR MEASURABLE RAIN (0.01). ANYTHING THAT
FALLS THROUGH 12Z/MON WOULD BE RAIN AND WOULD BE LIGHT AND IN THE NW
ZONES.

MONDAY... THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SHORT
WAVE CLIPPER SYSTEM PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS... AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL NC.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL NOT SHOW MUCH INCLINATION TO RISE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DUE
TO CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT PRECIP...BUT SHOULD STILL REACH THE MID 40S
DUE TO THE MILD...MID 30S...START TO THE DAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH
MAY REACH THE MID 50S WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE.

THE COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR AFTER DEEPER MOISTURE HAS PULLED OUT...AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS OF POTENTIAL SNOW
SHOWERS MIXING WITH THE DEPARTING RAIN AS LEVELS ABOVE -12 DRY OUT.
PRECIP WILL BE ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO AROUND FREEZING SOUTH. CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WITH
LAGGING MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FAST UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

A SECOND SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST. COLD AIR WILL BE SETTLED
IN ALONG WITH WHAT COULD BE A NEAR CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MID TO HIGH
CLOUDINESS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ACROSS
THE NORTH...WITH SOME MID 40S SOUTH. THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT
FURTHER OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FAILING TO
WARM UP THE COLD AIRMASS...HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MIGRATING OVERHEAD LATE WEDNESDAY...
WITH A MILD WARMUP ON TAP FOR LATE WEEK IN RETURN FLOW. SKIES WILL
BE SUNNY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 50...WHILE SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE
MILDER MINS...MAINLY MID 30S. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS NEAR 50...BUT COOLER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM SUNDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24
HOUR TAF PERIOD AS SKIES THIS EVENING ARE CLEAR AND WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND OUT OF THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LARGE ENOUGH THAT FOG SHOULD NOT
BE AN ISSUE THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THEIR COULD BE SOME
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED CIRRUS THIS MORNING THAT COULD AFFECT KINT
AND KGSO ALONG WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER ON TODAY. THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AT KINT AND KGSO MAINLY
BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY.

LONG TERM: THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRUSH NORTHERN LOCALES ON
MONDAY WITH PRECIPIATION EXPECT TO FALL AS RAIN. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MIDWEEK WITH A WEAK SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT POSSIBLY PRESENTING SOME ADVERSE CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...ELLIS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 250553
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1253 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY... PASSING SOUTH OF NORTH CAROLINA. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 832 PM SATURDAY...


STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY S/W TROUGH LIFTING UP
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE WAVE...SO EXPECT ONLY
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO SKIRT MOSTLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL DRIER AIR FEED FROM THE WEST SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
~5F DEGREES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY... AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO A VERY MILD AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING OUR REGION. A
RAPID INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA... COOLEST IN THE NW WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE EARLIER.

SUNDAY NIGHT... THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM DIVING
SOUTHEAST IN THE "ALBERTA CLIPPER" FASHION. USING THE ENSEMBLE
APPROACH GIVEN SOME 50-100 MILE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST TRACK
WITHIN THE MODEL SUITE... A TRACK NEARLY BISECTING NORTH CAROLINA
FROM NW TO SE WOULD BE AN AVERAGE RESULT. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL
EUROPEAN IS A GOOD REPRESENTATIVE TO START WITH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST
A SURFACE WAVE TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO NC LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH REDEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE OF CAPE HATTERAS MONDAY.
FOR A WINTER P-TYPE THREAT... THE TYPICAL "CLIPPER LOW" TRACK WOULD
MOST LIKELY HAVE TO TRACK 50-100 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK.

THEREFORE... SUNDAY NIGHT... ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
OVER OUR REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIQUID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WE WILL STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH ALSO
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES TYPICALLY ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
FORECAST MOS GUIDANCE WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR EVENTS.

EXPECT TO SEE THICKENING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY EVENING LEADING TO A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING (IN THE 37-42 RANGE
NW TO SE). WE WILL CARRY LOW END "CHANCE" POP IN THE NORTH FOR NOW
WHICH IS 25-30 PERCENT FOR MEASURABLE RAIN (0.01). ANYTHING THAT
FALLS THROUGH 12Z/MON WOULD BE RAIN AND WOULD BE LIGHT AND IN THE NW
ZONES.

MONDAY... THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SHORT
WAVE CLIPPER SYSTEM PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS... AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL NC.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL NOT SHOW MUCH INCLINATION TO RISE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DUE
TO CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT PRECIP...BUT SHOULD STILL REACH THE MID 40S
DUE TO THE MILD...MID 30S...START TO THE DAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH
MAY REACH THE MID 50S WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE.

THE COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR AFTER DEEPER MOISTURE HAS PULLED OUT...AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS OF POTENTIAL SNOW
SHOWERS MIXING WITH THE DEPARTING RAIN AS LEVELS ABOVE -12 DRY OUT.
PRECIP WILL BE ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO AROUND FREEZING SOUTH. CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WITH
LAGGING MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FAST UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

A SECOND SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST. COLD AIR WILL BE SETTLED
IN ALONG WITH WHAT COULD BE A NEAR CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MID TO HIGH
CLOUDINESS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ACROSS
THE NORTH...WITH SOME MID 40S SOUTH. THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT
FURTHER OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FAILING TO
WARM UP THE COLD AIRMASS...HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MIGRATING OVERHEAD LATE WEDNESDAY...
WITH A MILD WARMUP ON TAP FOR LATE WEEK IN RETURN FLOW. SKIES WILL
BE SUNNY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 50...WHILE SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE
MILDER MINS...MAINLY MID 30S. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS NEAR 50...BUT COOLER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM SUNDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24
HOUR TAF PERIOD AS SKIES THIS EVENING ARE CLEAR AND WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND OUT OF THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LARGE ENOUGH THAT FOG SHOULD NOT
BE AN ISSUE THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THEIR COULD BE SOME
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED CIRRUS THIS MORNING THAT COULD AFFECT KINT
AND KGSO ALONG WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER ON TODAY. THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AT KINT AND KGSO MAINLY
BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY.

LONG TERM: THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRUSH NORTHERN LOCALES ON
MONDAY WITH PRECIPIATION EXPECT TO FALL AS RAIN. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MIDWEEK WITH A WEAK SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT POSSIBLY PRESENTING SOME ADVERSE CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...ELLIS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 250131
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
832 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY... PASSING SOUTH OF NORTH CAROLINA. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 832 PM SATURDAY...


STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY S/W TROUGH LIFTING UP
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE WAVE...SO EXPECT ONLY
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO SKIRT MOSTLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL DRIER AIR FEED FROM THE WEST SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
~5F DEGREES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY... AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO A VERY MILD AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING OUR REGION. A
RAPID INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA... COOLEST IN THE NW WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE EARLIER.

SUNDAY NIGHT... THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM DIVING
SOUTHEAST IN THE "ALBERTA CLIPPER" FASHION. USING THE ENSEMBLE
APPROACH GIVEN SOME 50-100 MILE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST TRACK
WITHIN THE MODEL SUITE... A TRACK NEARLY BISECTING NORTH CAROLINA
FROM NW TO SE WOULD BE AN AVERAGE RESULT. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL
EUROPEAN IS A GOOD REPRESENTATIVE TO START WITH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST
A SURFACE WAVE TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO NC LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH REDEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE OF CAPE HATTERAS MONDAY.
FOR A WINTER P-TYPE THREAT... THE TYPICAL "CLIPPER LOW" TRACK WOULD
MOST LIKELY HAVE TO TRACK 50-100 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK.

THEREFORE... SUNDAY NIGHT... ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
OVER OUR REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIQUID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WE WILL STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH ALSO
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES TYPICALLY ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
FORECAST MOS GUIDANCE WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR EVENTS.

EXPECT TO SEE THICKENING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY EVENING LEADING TO A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING (IN THE 37-42 RANGE
NW TO SE). WE WILL CARRY LOW END "CHANCE" POP IN THE NORTH FOR NOW
WHICH IS 25-30 PERCENT FOR MEASURABLE RAIN (0.01). ANYTHING THAT
FALLS THROUGH 12Z/MON WOULD BE RAIN AND WOULD BE LIGHT AND IN THE NW
ZONES.

MONDAY... THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SHORT
WAVE CLIPPER SYSTEM PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS... AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL NC.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL NOT SHOW MUCH INCLINATION TO RISE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DUE
TO CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT PRECIP...BUT SHOULD STILL REACH THE MID 40S
DUE TO THE MILD...MID 30S...START TO THE DAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH
MAY REACH THE MID 50S WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE.

THE COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR AFTER DEEPER MOISTURE HAS PULLED OUT...AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS OF POTENTIAL SNOW
SHOWERS MIXING WITH THE DEPARTING RAIN AS LEVELS ABOVE -12 DRY OUT.
PRECIP WILL BE ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO AROUND FREEZING SOUTH. CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WITH
LAGGING MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FAST UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

A SECOND SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST. COLD AIR WILL BE SETTLED
IN ALONG WITH WHAT COULD BE A NEAR CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MID TO HIGH
CLOUDINESS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ACROSS
THE NORTH...WITH SOME MID 40S SOUTH. THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT
FURTHER OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FAILING TO
WARM UP THE COLD AIRMASS...HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MIGRATING OVERHEAD LATE WEDNESDAY...
WITH A MILD WARMUP ON TAP FOR LATE WEEK IN RETURN FLOW. SKIES WILL
BE SUNNY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 50...WHILE SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE
MILDER MINS...MAINLY MID 30S. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS NEAR 50...BUT COOLER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US...EXTENDING INTO AND
DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS OUR NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE WHEN A CLIPPER SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN A FEW PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY A LIGHT SHOWER OR
TWO ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN NC.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...KRD/BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 250131
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
832 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY... PASSING SOUTH OF NORTH CAROLINA. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 832 PM SATURDAY...


STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY S/W TROUGH LIFTING UP
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE WAVE...SO EXPECT ONLY
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS TO SKIRT MOSTLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL DRIER AIR FEED FROM THE WEST SHOULD
PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
~5F DEGREES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY... AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO A VERY MILD AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING OUR REGION. A
RAPID INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA... COOLEST IN THE NW WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE EARLIER.

SUNDAY NIGHT... THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM DIVING
SOUTHEAST IN THE "ALBERTA CLIPPER" FASHION. USING THE ENSEMBLE
APPROACH GIVEN SOME 50-100 MILE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST TRACK
WITHIN THE MODEL SUITE... A TRACK NEARLY BISECTING NORTH CAROLINA
FROM NW TO SE WOULD BE AN AVERAGE RESULT. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL
EUROPEAN IS A GOOD REPRESENTATIVE TO START WITH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST
A SURFACE WAVE TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO NC LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH REDEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE OF CAPE HATTERAS MONDAY.
FOR A WINTER P-TYPE THREAT... THE TYPICAL "CLIPPER LOW" TRACK WOULD
MOST LIKELY HAVE TO TRACK 50-100 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK.

THEREFORE... SUNDAY NIGHT... ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
OVER OUR REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIQUID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WE WILL STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH ALSO
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES TYPICALLY ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
FORECAST MOS GUIDANCE WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR EVENTS.

EXPECT TO SEE THICKENING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY EVENING LEADING TO A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING (IN THE 37-42 RANGE
NW TO SE). WE WILL CARRY LOW END "CHANCE" POP IN THE NORTH FOR NOW
WHICH IS 25-30 PERCENT FOR MEASURABLE RAIN (0.01). ANYTHING THAT
FALLS THROUGH 12Z/MON WOULD BE RAIN AND WOULD BE LIGHT AND IN THE NW
ZONES.

MONDAY... THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SHORT
WAVE CLIPPER SYSTEM PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS... AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL NC.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL NOT SHOW MUCH INCLINATION TO RISE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DUE
TO CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT PRECIP...BUT SHOULD STILL REACH THE MID 40S
DUE TO THE MILD...MID 30S...START TO THE DAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH
MAY REACH THE MID 50S WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE.

THE COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR AFTER DEEPER MOISTURE HAS PULLED OUT...AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS OF POTENTIAL SNOW
SHOWERS MIXING WITH THE DEPARTING RAIN AS LEVELS ABOVE -12 DRY OUT.
PRECIP WILL BE ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO AROUND FREEZING SOUTH. CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WITH
LAGGING MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FAST UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

A SECOND SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST. COLD AIR WILL BE SETTLED
IN ALONG WITH WHAT COULD BE A NEAR CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MID TO HIGH
CLOUDINESS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ACROSS
THE NORTH...WITH SOME MID 40S SOUTH. THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT
FURTHER OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FAILING TO
WARM UP THE COLD AIRMASS...HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MIGRATING OVERHEAD LATE WEDNESDAY...
WITH A MILD WARMUP ON TAP FOR LATE WEEK IN RETURN FLOW. SKIES WILL
BE SUNNY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 50...WHILE SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE
MILDER MINS...MAINLY MID 30S. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS NEAR 50...BUT COOLER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US...EXTENDING INTO AND
DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS OUR NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE WHEN A CLIPPER SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN A FEW PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY A LIGHT SHOWER OR
TWO ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN NC.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...KRD/BADGETT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 242341
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
641 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY... PASSING SOUTH OF NORTH CAROLINA. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUED TO SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST
TOWARD THE COAST AT MID AFTERNOON. RAPID CLEARING CONTINUED TO
SPREAD OUT OVER THE PIEDMONT TOWARD THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AS WELL AS NVA IN THE REAR OF THE DEPARTING
VORT MAX WERE COMBINING WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO BRING THE RAPID CLEARING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY CLEARING SKIES
AND A BRISK WEST BREEZE AT 10-20 MPH THAT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND
DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT... AS HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS BY TO
OUR SOUTH LATE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT WEST WIND
OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY... AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO A VERY MILD AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING OUR REGION. A
RAPID INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA... COOLEST IN THE NW WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE EARLIER.

SUNDAY NIGHT... THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM DIVING
SOUTHEAST IN THE "ALBERTA CLIPPER" FASHION. USING THE ENSEMBLE
APPROACH GIVEN SOME 50-100 MILE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST TRACK
WITHIN THE MODEL SUITE... A TRACK NEARLY BISECTING NORTH CAROLINA
FROM NW TO SE WOULD BE AN AVERAGE RESULT. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL
EUROPEAN IS A GOOD REPRESENTATIVE TO START WITH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST
A SURFACE WAVE TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO NC LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH REDEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE OF CAPE HATTERAS MONDAY.
FOR A WINTER P-TYPE THREAT... THE TYPICAL "CLIPPER LOW" TRACK WOULD
MOST LIKELY HAVE TO TRACK 50-100 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK.

THEREFORE... SUNDAY NIGHT... ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
OVER OUR REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIQUID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WE WILL STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH ALSO
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES TYPICALLY ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
FORECAST MOS GUIDANCE WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR EVENTS.

EXPECT TO SEE THICKENING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY EVENING LEADING TO A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING (IN THE 37-42 RANGE
NW TO SE). WE WILL CARRY LOW END "CHANCE" POP IN THE NORTH FOR NOW
WHICH IS 25-30 PERCENT FOR MEASURABLE RAIN (0.01). ANYTHING THAT
FALLS THROUGH 12Z/MON WOULD BE RAIN AND WOULD BE LIGHT AND IN THE NW
ZONES.

MONDAY... THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SHORT
WAVE CLIPPER SYSTEM PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS... AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL NC.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL NOT SHOW MUCH INCLINATION TO RISE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DUE
TO CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT PRECIP...BUT SHOULD STILL REACH THE MID 40S
DUE TO THE MILD...MID 30S...START TO THE DAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH
MAY REACH THE MID 50S WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE.

THE COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR AFTER DEEPER MOISTURE HAS PULLED OUT...AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS OF POTENTIAL SNOW
SHOWERS MIXING WITH THE DEPARTING RAIN AS LEVELS ABOVE -12 DRY OUT.
PRECIP WILL BE ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO AROUND FREEZING SOUTH. CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WITH
LAGGING MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FAST UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

A SECOND SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST. COLD AIR WILL BE SETTLED
IN ALONG WITH WHAT COULD BE A NEAR CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MID TO HIGH
CLOUDINESS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ACROSS
THE NORTH...WITH SOME MID 40S SOUTH. THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT
FURTHER OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FAILING TO
WARM UP THE COLD AIRMASS...HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MIGRATING OVERHEAD LATE WEDNESDAY...
WITH A MILD WARMUP ON TAP FOR LATE WEEK IN RETURN FLOW. SKIES WILL
BE SUNNY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 50...WHILE SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE
MILDER MINS...MAINLY MID 30S. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS NEAR 50...BUT COOLER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US...EXTENDING INTO AND
DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS OUR NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE WHEN A CLIPPER SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN A FEW PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY A LIGHT SHOWER OR
TWO ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN NC.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...KRD/BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 242341
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
641 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY... PASSING SOUTH OF NORTH CAROLINA. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUED TO SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST
TOWARD THE COAST AT MID AFTERNOON. RAPID CLEARING CONTINUED TO
SPREAD OUT OVER THE PIEDMONT TOWARD THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AS WELL AS NVA IN THE REAR OF THE DEPARTING
VORT MAX WERE COMBINING WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO BRING THE RAPID CLEARING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY CLEARING SKIES
AND A BRISK WEST BREEZE AT 10-20 MPH THAT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND
DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT... AS HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS BY TO
OUR SOUTH LATE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT WEST WIND
OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY... AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO A VERY MILD AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING OUR REGION. A
RAPID INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA... COOLEST IN THE NW WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE EARLIER.

SUNDAY NIGHT... THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM DIVING
SOUTHEAST IN THE "ALBERTA CLIPPER" FASHION. USING THE ENSEMBLE
APPROACH GIVEN SOME 50-100 MILE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST TRACK
WITHIN THE MODEL SUITE... A TRACK NEARLY BISECTING NORTH CAROLINA
FROM NW TO SE WOULD BE AN AVERAGE RESULT. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL
EUROPEAN IS A GOOD REPRESENTATIVE TO START WITH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST
A SURFACE WAVE TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO NC LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH REDEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE OF CAPE HATTERAS MONDAY.
FOR A WINTER P-TYPE THREAT... THE TYPICAL "CLIPPER LOW" TRACK WOULD
MOST LIKELY HAVE TO TRACK 50-100 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK.

THEREFORE... SUNDAY NIGHT... ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
OVER OUR REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIQUID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WE WILL STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH ALSO
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES TYPICALLY ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
FORECAST MOS GUIDANCE WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR EVENTS.

EXPECT TO SEE THICKENING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY EVENING LEADING TO A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING (IN THE 37-42 RANGE
NW TO SE). WE WILL CARRY LOW END "CHANCE" POP IN THE NORTH FOR NOW
WHICH IS 25-30 PERCENT FOR MEASURABLE RAIN (0.01). ANYTHING THAT
FALLS THROUGH 12Z/MON WOULD BE RAIN AND WOULD BE LIGHT AND IN THE NW
ZONES.

MONDAY... THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SHORT
WAVE CLIPPER SYSTEM PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS... AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL NC.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL NOT SHOW MUCH INCLINATION TO RISE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DUE
TO CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT PRECIP...BUT SHOULD STILL REACH THE MID 40S
DUE TO THE MILD...MID 30S...START TO THE DAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH
MAY REACH THE MID 50S WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE.

THE COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR AFTER DEEPER MOISTURE HAS PULLED OUT...AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS OF POTENTIAL SNOW
SHOWERS MIXING WITH THE DEPARTING RAIN AS LEVELS ABOVE -12 DRY OUT.
PRECIP WILL BE ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO AROUND FREEZING SOUTH. CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WITH
LAGGING MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FAST UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

A SECOND SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST. COLD AIR WILL BE SETTLED
IN ALONG WITH WHAT COULD BE A NEAR CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MID TO HIGH
CLOUDINESS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ACROSS
THE NORTH...WITH SOME MID 40S SOUTH. THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT
FURTHER OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FAILING TO
WARM UP THE COLD AIRMASS...HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MIGRATING OVERHEAD LATE WEDNESDAY...
WITH A MILD WARMUP ON TAP FOR LATE WEEK IN RETURN FLOW. SKIES WILL
BE SUNNY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 50...WHILE SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE
MILDER MINS...MAINLY MID 30S. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS NEAR 50...BUT COOLER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US...EXTENDING INTO AND
DOMINATING THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS OUR NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE WHEN A CLIPPER SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN A FEW PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY A LIGHT SHOWER OR
TWO ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN NC.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...KRD/BADGETT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 241949
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY... PASSING SOUTH OF NORTH CAROLINA. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUED TO SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST
TOWARD THE COAST AT MID AFTERNOON. RAPID CLEARING CONTINUED TO
SPREAD OUT OVER THE PIEDMONT TOWARD THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AS WELL AS NVA IN THE REAR OF THE DEPARTING
VORT MAX WERE COMBINING WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO BRING THE RAPID CLEARING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY CLEARING SKIES
AND A BRISK WEST BREEZE AT 10-20 MPH THAT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND
DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT... AS HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS BY TO
OUR SOUTH LATE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT WEST WIND
OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY... AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO A VERY MILD AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING OUR REGION. A
RAPID INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA... COOLEST IN THE NW WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE EARLIER.

SUNDAY NIGHT... THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM DIVING
SOUTHEAST IN THE "ALBERTA CLIPPER" FASHION. USING THE ENSEMBLE
APPROACH GIVEN SOME 50-100 MILE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST TRACK
WITHIN THE MODEL SUITE... A TRACK NEARLY BISECTING NORTH CAROLINA
FROM NW TO SE WOULD BE AN AVERAGE RESULT. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL
EUROPEAN IS A GOOD REPRESENTATIVE TO START WITH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST
A SURFACE WAVE TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO NC LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH REDEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE OF CAPE HATTERAS MONDAY.
FOR A WINTER P-TYPE THREAT... THE TYPICAL "CLIPPER LOW" TRACK WOULD
MOST LIKELY HAVE TO TRACK 50-100 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK.

THEREFORE... SUNDAY NIGHT... ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
OVER OUR REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIQUID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WE WILL STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH ALSO
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES TYPICALLY ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
FORECAST MOS GUIDANCE WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR EVENTS.

EXPECT TO SEE THICKENING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY EVENING LEADING TO A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING (IN THE 37-42 RANGE
NW TO SE). WE WILL CARRY LOW END "CHANCE" POP IN THE NORTH FOR NOW
WHICH IS 25-30 PERCENT FOR MEASURABLE RAIN (0.01). ANYTHING THAT
FALLS THROUGH 12Z/MON WOULD BE RAIN AND WOULD BE LIGHT AND IN THE NW
ZONES.

MONDAY... THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SHORT
WAVE CLIPPER SYSTEM PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS... AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL NC.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL NOT SHOW MUCH INCLINATION TO RISE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DUE
TO CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT PRECIP...BUT SHOULD STILL REACH THE MID 40S
DUE TO THE MILD...MID 30S...START TO THE DAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH
MAY REACH THE MID 50S WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE.

THE COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR AFTER DEEPER MOISTURE HAS PULLED OUT...AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS OF POTENTIAL SNOW
SHOWERS MIXING WITH THE DEPARTING RAIN AS LEVELS ABOVE -12 DRY OUT.
PRECIP WILL BE ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO AROUND FREEZING SOUTH. CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WITH
LAGGING MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FAST UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

A SECOND SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST. COLD AIR WILL BE SETTLED
IN ALONG WITH WHAT COULD BE A NEAR CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MID TO HIGH
CLOUDINESS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ACROSS
THE NORTH...WITH SOME MID 40S SOUTH. THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT
FURTHER OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FAILING TO
WARM UP THE COLD AIRMASS...HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MIGRATING OVERHEAD LATE WEDNESDAY...
WITH A MILD WARMUP ON TAP FOR LATE WEEK IN RETURN FLOW. SKIES WILL
BE SUNNY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 50...WHILE SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE
MILDER MINS...MAINLY MID 30S. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS NEAR 50...BUT COOLER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM SATURDAY...

RAPID IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z
ACROSS OUR REGION. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD
DURING THIS TIME. ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES... RAPID CLEARING WILL
ENSUE. THIS PROCESS HAD ALREADY BEGUN AT KHKY... KCLT AND KGSP BY
17Z. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-20KT.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE WITH A
CLIPPER SYSTEM ON MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD PRESENT A
FEW PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN NC.
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 241949
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY... PASSING SOUTH OF NORTH CAROLINA. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUED TO SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST
TOWARD THE COAST AT MID AFTERNOON. RAPID CLEARING CONTINUED TO
SPREAD OUT OVER THE PIEDMONT TOWARD THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AS WELL AS NVA IN THE REAR OF THE DEPARTING
VORT MAX WERE COMBINING WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE BLUE RIDGE
TO BRING THE RAPID CLEARING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY CLEARING SKIES
AND A BRISK WEST BREEZE AT 10-20 MPH THAT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND
DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT... AS HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS BY TO
OUR SOUTH LATE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT WEST WIND
OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY... AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO A VERY MILD AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING OUR REGION. A
RAPID INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA... COOLEST IN THE NW WHERE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE EARLIER.

SUNDAY NIGHT... THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM DIVING
SOUTHEAST IN THE "ALBERTA CLIPPER" FASHION. USING THE ENSEMBLE
APPROACH GIVEN SOME 50-100 MILE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST TRACK
WITHIN THE MODEL SUITE... A TRACK NEARLY BISECTING NORTH CAROLINA
FROM NW TO SE WOULD BE AN AVERAGE RESULT. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL
EUROPEAN IS A GOOD REPRESENTATIVE TO START WITH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST
A SURFACE WAVE TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO NC LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH REDEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE OF CAPE HATTERAS MONDAY.
FOR A WINTER P-TYPE THREAT... THE TYPICAL "CLIPPER LOW" TRACK WOULD
MOST LIKELY HAVE TO TRACK 50-100 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK.

THEREFORE... SUNDAY NIGHT... ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
OVER OUR REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIQUID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WE WILL STILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH ALSO
MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES TYPICALLY ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
FORECAST MOS GUIDANCE WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR EVENTS.

EXPECT TO SEE THICKENING CLOUDINESS SUNDAY EVENING LEADING TO A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING (IN THE 37-42 RANGE
NW TO SE). WE WILL CARRY LOW END "CHANCE" POP IN THE NORTH FOR NOW
WHICH IS 25-30 PERCENT FOR MEASURABLE RAIN (0.01). ANYTHING THAT
FALLS THROUGH 12Z/MON WOULD BE RAIN AND WOULD BE LIGHT AND IN THE NW
ZONES.

MONDAY... THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OF THIS SHORT
WAVE CLIPPER SYSTEM PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS... AND MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL NC.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL NOT SHOW MUCH INCLINATION TO RISE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER DUE
TO CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT PRECIP...BUT SHOULD STILL REACH THE MID 40S
DUE TO THE MILD...MID 30S...START TO THE DAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH
MAY REACH THE MID 50S WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE.

THE COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT WILL OCCUR AFTER DEEPER MOISTURE HAS PULLED OUT...AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS OF POTENTIAL SNOW
SHOWERS MIXING WITH THE DEPARTING RAIN AS LEVELS ABOVE -12 DRY OUT.
PRECIP WILL BE ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING TO THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO AROUND FREEZING SOUTH. CLOUDINESS SHOULD REMAIN
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WITH
LAGGING MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FAST UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...

A SECOND SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE EVEN MORE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST. COLD AIR WILL BE SETTLED
IN ALONG WITH WHAT COULD BE A NEAR CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MID TO HIGH
CLOUDINESS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ACROSS
THE NORTH...WITH SOME MID 40S SOUTH. THE UPPER TROF WILL SHIFT
FURTHER OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FAILING TO
WARM UP THE COLD AIRMASS...HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MIGRATING OVERHEAD LATE WEDNESDAY...
WITH A MILD WARMUP ON TAP FOR LATE WEEK IN RETURN FLOW. SKIES WILL
BE SUNNY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 50...WHILE SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE
MILDER MINS...MAINLY MID 30S. CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS NEAR 50...BUT COOLER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1215 PM SATURDAY...

RAPID IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z
ACROSS OUR REGION. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD
DURING THIS TIME. ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES... RAPID CLEARING WILL
ENSUE. THIS PROCESS HAD ALREADY BEGUN AT KHKY... KCLT AND KGSP BY
17Z. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-20KT.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

LONG TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE WITH A
CLIPPER SYSTEM ON MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD PRESENT A
FEW PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN NC.
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BADGETT





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