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000
FXUS62 KRAH 011454
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
955 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING... ALTHOUGH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 955 AM SUNDAY...

UPDATED: TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA ARE INCHING INTO THE 32-33F
RANGE CURRENTLY WITH WET BULBS ALSO RIGHT AT THE FREEZING MARK AND
RISING... SO DESPITE ADDITIONAL BANDS OF LIGHT PRECIP TRACKING NE
TOWARD THIS AREA FROM THE SW... BELIEVE WE CAN SAFELY ALLOW THE
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE IN THIS AREA ON SCHEDULE. THE NCDOT HAS NOT
REPORTED ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAFFIC PROBLEMS RECENTLY... HOWEVER IT MAY
STILL TAKE AWHILE FOR RESIDUAL LIGHT ICE GLAZE TO MELT AND WASH
OFF... SO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVISE EXTRA CAUTION. OTHERWISE...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIP DRIVEN BY STRONG/DEEP MOIST UPGLIDE FROM
285K UP THROUGH AT LEAST 300K PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS UPGLIDE
APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED NOW... WITH A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS... TRENDING DOWN AND OUT WEST TO
EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE OBSERVED 12Z
GSO SOUNDING SHOWS WELL THE WARM NOSE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR... INDICATING A CONTINUED THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC WHERE TEMPS NOW SIT AT 28-31 WITH
SUBFREEZING WET BULBS. MOST ACCRUAL HAS BEEN ON ELEVATED OBJECTS AND
BRIDGES/OVERPASSES... WITH GROUND-ADJACENT ROAD SURFACES JUST WET IN
MANY AREAS. WITH THE LOSS OF SUPPORT FROM THE PARENT HIGH TO PROVIDE
A STEADY FEED OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR... RESULTING IN A LIMITATION OF
ICE ACCRUAL BY LATENT HEAT RELEASE... NOT ALL OF THE ADDITIONAL
PRECIP WILL RESULT IN ICING... AND OUTSIDE OF THE FAR NRN SECTIONS
WHERE TEMPS ARE COLDEST... MOST AREAS WILL SEE ONLY A TRACE AMOUNT
OF ADDITIONAL ICING. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST SLOW TREND
OF TEMPS RISING TO AT/ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH/SE TOWARD THE
NORTH/NW FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. NO CHANGES TO REMAINING ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME. -GIH

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 345 AM: TODAY...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM PARENT
ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF COLD
DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING 925-850MB HIGH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST
ADVECTING OVER THE COLD STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN PATCHES OF LIGHT PRECIP TO BEAK OUT OVER OUR FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ...AND BEGINNING TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AT 08Z. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS SPREAD OF 12-
16 DEGREES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD DROP SFC TEMPS TO BELOW FREEZING
FOR SEVERAL HOURS ONCE THE PRECIPITATION SETS IN. OVER THE FAR SOUTH-
SE...THIS TIME BELOW FREEZING SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF
HOURS (IF THAT).

APPEARS BEST THREAT FOR ICE ACCRUAL OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR A
LITTLE MORE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT/VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FORSYTH...GUILFORD AND
ALAMANCE COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL ON EXPOSED
SURFACE OBJECTS AS WELL AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES TO FORM A THIN
GLAZE...ENOUGH TO MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS IN SPOTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
THIS MORNING.

FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE ALOFT (APPROACHING 8 DEGREES C IN THE
NW PIEDMONT BY LATE MORNING) MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SUB
FREEZING CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. THUS WHILE SFC TEMPS IN THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT MAY BE 31-32 DEGREES BY MID DAY...ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCRUAL WILL BE SEVERELY LIMITED. PLAN TO MAINTAIN ADVISORY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH-NW UNTIL 4 PM BUT WILL ASSESS TEMP RESPONSE LATER THIS
MORNING WITH A POSSIBILITY OF ENDING THE ADVISORY A FEW HOURS
EARLIER. ELSEWHERE CURRENT ADVISORY END TIMES APPEAR ON TARGET.

MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE PRECIP
BECOMES AND WHEN IT TAPERS OFF. COUNTING ON PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH
A GOOD PART OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
THERE A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONVERSELY...HAVE
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE WEST-SW WHERE
PRECIP MAY TAPER OFF BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...

TONIGHT...EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED WHILE A SLY
SFC WIND WILL BEGIN TO STIR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-
NW. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.

MONDAY...SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING.
APPEARS MOISTURE DEPTH FAIRLY LIMITED TO GENERATE ANY PRECIP ACROSS
THE NW BUT MAY BE ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SE TO DEVELOP A FEW
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AID TO ADVECT
A DRIER AIR MASS IN THE REGION. THIS WILL SLOWLY ERODE CLOUD
COVERAGE FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE TEMPS REBOUND
INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT BY AFTERNOON (LESS SO ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SE). FAVORED
COOLER NAM MOS GUIDANCE VERSUS THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF CENTRAL NC AND AND MID LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH WILL BOTH QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER... THE LINGERING COLD DRY SURFACE AIR
DEPOSITED BY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR AN INSITU
CAD EVENT ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT... POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. WARM MOIST AIR
WILL INCREASING IN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THIS
AND THE LINGERING COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WE SHOULD SEE SOME
ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN PRECIP DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30
NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE LIGHT PRECIP IN
AFTER SURFACE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE ENOUGH TO AVOID AND
NUISANCE FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER... HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND GREATLY AFFECTED BY THE CAD AIRMASS. MAV STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO WARM FOR TUESDAY... WITH THE RAW GFS
TEMPS CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE VALUES. FOR NOW WILL LOWER TEMPS
FURTHER... AND THIS MAY NOT EVEN BE FAR ENOUGH. WILL WO WITH HIGH
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT... BEFORE SLOWLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME PARALLE WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES MORE OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH... WHICH
APPEARS TO PHASE SOME THE THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM... RESULTING IN A DEEP FETCH OF SOUTHWESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW... ALONG WITH SEVERAL SURFACE LOWS TRACKING ALONG THE
FRONT FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT... MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY MID-MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE THURSDAY (WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP...
POSSIBLY SOME HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN). IN ADDITION... MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH SURGING THE STRONG/DEEP COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR... WE COULD POSSIBLE SEE SOME
WINTRY P-TYPES ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER... GIVEN WE ARE STILL TALKING
ABOUT DAY 5 IN THE FORECAST AND WE ARE NOW IN THE MONTH OF MARCH...
WILL WAIT TO ADD ANY NON-LIQUID P-TYPE TO THE FORECAST. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER...  THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN MAY REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS... WE COULD
CONCEIVABLY SEE SOME PRECIP IF ONE SUCH SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL INCLUDE SOME DECENT SWINGS...
WITH HIGHS TEMPS WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S... THURSDAY 40S AND
50S (MAYBE COLDER)... WITH FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH MAYBE SOME
30S EVEN). WE WILL SEE SOME MODERATING BY SATURDAY... GENERALLY BACK
INTO THE 50S... GIVEN WE REAMIN DRY. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PATTERN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...  ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE
IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE... OUTSIDE OF *MAYBE* A
BRIEF PERIOD AS THE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 825 AM SUNDAY...


WIDESPREAD LOW END MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...AND
EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
THROUGH 15Z...THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN. IN ADDITION...A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI.

THE FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW PIEDMONT WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A COLD
RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF BY SUNSET...WIDESPREAD FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. WEST-NW FLOW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS...LEADING TO A SCOURING OF THE
MURKY NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS. EXPECT IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR
NCZ008>011-024>028-040-041-043-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011454
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
955 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING... ALTHOUGH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH RESULTING IN UNSETTLED WEATHER TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 955 AM SUNDAY...

UPDATED: TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA ARE INCHING INTO THE 32-33F
RANGE CURRENTLY WITH WET BULBS ALSO RIGHT AT THE FREEZING MARK AND
RISING... SO DESPITE ADDITIONAL BANDS OF LIGHT PRECIP TRACKING NE
TOWARD THIS AREA FROM THE SW... BELIEVE WE CAN SAFELY ALLOW THE
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE IN THIS AREA ON SCHEDULE. THE NCDOT HAS NOT
REPORTED ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAFFIC PROBLEMS RECENTLY... HOWEVER IT MAY
STILL TAKE AWHILE FOR RESIDUAL LIGHT ICE GLAZE TO MELT AND WASH
OFF... SO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVISE EXTRA CAUTION. OTHERWISE...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT PRECIP DRIVEN BY STRONG/DEEP MOIST UPGLIDE FROM
285K UP THROUGH AT LEAST 300K PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS UPGLIDE
APPEARS TO BE MAXIMIZED NOW... WITH A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS... TRENDING DOWN AND OUT WEST TO
EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE OBSERVED 12Z
GSO SOUNDING SHOWS WELL THE WARM NOSE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR... INDICATING A CONTINUED THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NC WHERE TEMPS NOW SIT AT 28-31 WITH
SUBFREEZING WET BULBS. MOST ACCRUAL HAS BEEN ON ELEVATED OBJECTS AND
BRIDGES/OVERPASSES... WITH GROUND-ADJACENT ROAD SURFACES JUST WET IN
MANY AREAS. WITH THE LOSS OF SUPPORT FROM THE PARENT HIGH TO PROVIDE
A STEADY FEED OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR... RESULTING IN A LIMITATION OF
ICE ACCRUAL BY LATENT HEAT RELEASE... NOT ALL OF THE ADDITIONAL
PRECIP WILL RESULT IN ICING... AND OUTSIDE OF THE FAR NRN SECTIONS
WHERE TEMPS ARE COLDEST... MOST AREAS WILL SEE ONLY A TRACE AMOUNT
OF ADDITIONAL ICING. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST SLOW TREND
OF TEMPS RISING TO AT/ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH/SE TOWARD THE
NORTH/NW FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. NO CHANGES TO REMAINING ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME. -GIH

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 345 AM: TODAY...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM PARENT
ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF COLD
DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING 925-850MB HIGH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST
ADVECTING OVER THE COLD STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN PATCHES OF LIGHT PRECIP TO BEAK OUT OVER OUR FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ...AND BEGINNING TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AT 08Z. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS SPREAD OF 12-
16 DEGREES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD DROP SFC TEMPS TO BELOW FREEZING
FOR SEVERAL HOURS ONCE THE PRECIPITATION SETS IN. OVER THE FAR SOUTH-
SE...THIS TIME BELOW FREEZING SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF
HOURS (IF THAT).

APPEARS BEST THREAT FOR ICE ACCRUAL OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR A
LITTLE MORE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT/VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FORSYTH...GUILFORD AND
ALAMANCE COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL ON EXPOSED
SURFACE OBJECTS AS WELL AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES TO FORM A THIN
GLAZE...ENOUGH TO MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS IN SPOTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
THIS MORNING.

FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE ALOFT (APPROACHING 8 DEGREES C IN THE
NW PIEDMONT BY LATE MORNING) MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SUB
FREEZING CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. THUS WHILE SFC TEMPS IN THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT MAY BE 31-32 DEGREES BY MID DAY...ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCRUAL WILL BE SEVERELY LIMITED. PLAN TO MAINTAIN ADVISORY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH-NW UNTIL 4 PM BUT WILL ASSESS TEMP RESPONSE LATER THIS
MORNING WITH A POSSIBILITY OF ENDING THE ADVISORY A FEW HOURS
EARLIER. ELSEWHERE CURRENT ADVISORY END TIMES APPEAR ON TARGET.

MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE PRECIP
BECOMES AND WHEN IT TAPERS OFF. COUNTING ON PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH
A GOOD PART OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
THERE A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONVERSELY...HAVE
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE WEST-SW WHERE
PRECIP MAY TAPER OFF BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...

TONIGHT...EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED WHILE A SLY
SFC WIND WILL BEGIN TO STIR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-
NW. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.

MONDAY...SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING.
APPEARS MOISTURE DEPTH FAIRLY LIMITED TO GENERATE ANY PRECIP ACROSS
THE NW BUT MAY BE ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SE TO DEVELOP A FEW
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AID TO ADVECT
A DRIER AIR MASS IN THE REGION. THIS WILL SLOWLY ERODE CLOUD
COVERAGE FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE TEMPS REBOUND
INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT BY AFTERNOON (LESS SO ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SE). FAVORED
COOLER NAM MOS GUIDANCE VERSUS THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF CENTRAL NC AND AND MID LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH WILL BOTH QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER... THE LINGERING COLD DRY SURFACE AIR
DEPOSITED BY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR AN INSITU
CAD EVENT ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT... POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. WARM MOIST AIR
WILL INCREASING IN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THIS
AND THE LINGERING COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WE SHOULD SEE SOME
ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN PRECIP DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30
NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE LIGHT PRECIP IN
AFTER SURFACE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE ENOUGH TO AVOID AND
NUISANCE FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER... HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND GREATLY AFFECTED BY THE CAD AIRMASS. MAV STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO WARM FOR TUESDAY... WITH THE RAW GFS
TEMPS CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE VALUES. FOR NOW WILL LOWER TEMPS
FURTHER... AND THIS MAY NOT EVEN BE FAR ENOUGH. WILL WO WITH HIGH
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT... BEFORE SLOWLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME PARALLE WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES MORE OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH... WHICH
APPEARS TO PHASE SOME THE THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM... RESULTING IN A DEEP FETCH OF SOUTHWESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW... ALONG WITH SEVERAL SURFACE LOWS TRACKING ALONG THE
FRONT FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT... MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY MID-MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE THURSDAY (WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP...
POSSIBLY SOME HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN). IN ADDITION... MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH SURGING THE STRONG/DEEP COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR... WE COULD POSSIBLE SEE SOME
WINTRY P-TYPES ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER... GIVEN WE ARE STILL TALKING
ABOUT DAY 5 IN THE FORECAST AND WE ARE NOW IN THE MONTH OF MARCH...
WILL WAIT TO ADD ANY NON-LIQUID P-TYPE TO THE FORECAST. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER...  THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN MAY REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS... WE COULD
CONCEIVABLY SEE SOME PRECIP IF ONE SUCH SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL INCLUDE SOME DECENT SWINGS...
WITH HIGHS TEMPS WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S... THURSDAY 40S AND
50S (MAYBE COLDER)... WITH FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH MAYBE SOME
30S EVEN). WE WILL SEE SOME MODERATING BY SATURDAY... GENERALLY BACK
INTO THE 50S... GIVEN WE REAMIN DRY. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PATTERN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...  ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE
IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE... OUTSIDE OF *MAYBE* A
BRIEF PERIOD AS THE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 825 AM SUNDAY...


WIDESPREAD LOW END MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...AND
EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
THROUGH 15Z...THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN. IN ADDITION...A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI.

THE FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW PIEDMONT WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A COLD
RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF BY SUNSET...WIDESPREAD FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. WEST-NW FLOW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS...LEADING TO A SCOURING OF THE
MURKY NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS. EXPECT IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR
NCZ008>011-024>028-040-041-043-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 011325
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
825 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...

TODAY...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM PARENT ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING. RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING 925-850MB
HIGH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST ADVECTING OVER THE COLD STABLE AIR MASS
AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN PATCHES OF LIGHT PRECIP TO BEAK
OUT OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ...AND
BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AT 08Z. WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS SPREAD OF 12-16 DEGREES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN...EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD DROP SFC TEMPS TO BELOW
FREEZING FOR SEVERAL HOURS ONCE THE PRECIPITATION SETS IN. OVER THE
FAR SOUTH-SE...THIS TIME BELOW FREEZING SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF HOURS (IF THAT).

APPEARS BEST THREAT FOR ICE ACCRUAL OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR A
LITTLE MORE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT/VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FORSYTH...GUILFORD AND
ALAMANCE COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL ON EXPOSED
SURFACE OBJECTS AS WELL AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES TO FORM A THIN
GLAZE...ENOUGH TO MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS IN SPOTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
THIS MORNING.

FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE ALOFT (APPROACHING 8 DEGREES C IN THE
NW PIEDMONT BY LATE MORNING) MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SUB
FREEZING CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. THUS WHILE SFC TEMPS IN THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT MAY BE 31-32 DEGREES BY MID DAY...ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCRUAL WILL BE SEVERELY LIMITED. PLAN TO MAINTAIN ADVISORY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH-NW UNTIL 4 PM BUT WILL ASSESS TEMP RESPONSE LATER THIS
MORNING WITH A POSSIBILITY OF ENDING THE ADVISORY A FEW HOURS
EARLIER. ELSEWHERE CURRENT ADVISORY END TIMES APPEAR ON TARGET.

MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE PRECIP
BECOMES AND WHEN IT TAPERS OFF. COUNTING ON PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH
A GOOD PART OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
THERE A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONVERSELY...HAVE
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE WEST-SW WHERE
PRECIP MAY TAPER OFF BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...

TONIGHT...EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED WHILE A SLY
SFC WIND WILL BEGIN TO STIR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-
NW. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.

MONDAY...SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING.
APPEARS MOISTURE DEPTH FAIRLY LIMITED TO GENERATE ANY PRECIP ACROSS
THE NW BUT MAY BE ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SE TO DEVELOP A FEW
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AID TO ADVECT
A DRIER AIR MASS IN THE REGION. THIS WILL SLOWLY ERODE CLOUD
COVERAGE FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE TEMPS REBOUND
INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT BY AFTERNOON (LESS SO ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SE). FAVORED
COOLER NAM MOS GUIDANCE VERSUS THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF CENTRAL NC AND AND MID LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH WILL BOTH QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER... THE LINGERING COLD DRY SURFACE AIR
DEPOSITED BY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR AN INSITU
CAD EVENT ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT... POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. WARM MOIST AIR
WILL INCREASING IN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THIS
AND THE LINGERING COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WE SHOULD SEE SOME
ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN PRECIP DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30
NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE LIGHT PRECIP IN
AFTER SURFACE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE ENOUGH TO AVOID AND
NUISANCE FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER... HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND GREATLY AFFECTED BY THE CAD AIRMASS. MAV STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO WARM FOR TUESDAY... WITH THE RAW GFS
TEMPS CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE VALUES. FOR NOW WILL LOWER TEMPS
FURTHER... AND THIS MAY NOT EVEN BE FAR ENOUGH. WILL WO WITH HIGH
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT... BEFORE SLOWLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME PARALLE WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES MORE OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH... WHICH
APPEARS TO PHASE SOME THE THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM... RESULTING IN A DEEP FETCH OF SOUTHWESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW... ALONG WITH SEVERAL SURFACE LOWS TRACKING ALONG THE
FRONT FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT... MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY MID-MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE THURSDAY (WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP...
POSSIBLY SOME HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN). IN ADDITION... MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH SURGING THE STRONG/DEEP COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR... WE COULD POSSIBLE SEE SOME
WINTRY P-TYPES ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER... GIVEN WE ARE STILL TALKING
ABOUT DAY 5 IN THE FORECAST AND WE ARE NOW IN THE MONTH OF MARCH...
WILL WAIT TO ADD ANY NON-LIQUID P-TYPE TO THE FORECAST. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER...  THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN MAY REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS... WE COULD
CONCEIVABLY SEE SOME PRECIP IF ONE SUCH SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL INCLUDE SOME DECENT SWINGS...
WITH HIGHS TEMPS WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S... THURSDAY 40S AND
50S (MAYBE COLDER)... WITH FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH MAYBE SOME
30S EVEN). WE WILL SEE SOME MODERATING BY SATURDAY... GENERALLY BACK
INTO THE 50S... GIVEN WE REAMIN DRY. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PATTERN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...  ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE
IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE... OUTSIDE OF *MAYBE* A
BRIEF PERIOD AS THE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 825 AM SUNDAY...


WIDESPREAD LOW END MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...AND
EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
THROUGH 15Z...THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN. IN ADDITION...A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI.

THE FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW PIEDMONT WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A COLD
RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF BY SUNSET...WIDESPREAD FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. WEST-NW FLOW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS...LEADING TO A SCOURING OF THE
MURKY NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS. EXPECT IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ042-077-
078-083>086-088-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR
NCZ008>011-024>028-040-041-043-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 011325
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
825 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...

TODAY...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM PARENT ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING. RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING 925-850MB
HIGH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST ADVECTING OVER THE COLD STABLE AIR MASS
AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN PATCHES OF LIGHT PRECIP TO BEAK
OUT OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ...AND
BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AT 08Z. WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS SPREAD OF 12-16 DEGREES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN...EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD DROP SFC TEMPS TO BELOW
FREEZING FOR SEVERAL HOURS ONCE THE PRECIPITATION SETS IN. OVER THE
FAR SOUTH-SE...THIS TIME BELOW FREEZING SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF HOURS (IF THAT).

APPEARS BEST THREAT FOR ICE ACCRUAL OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR A
LITTLE MORE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT/VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FORSYTH...GUILFORD AND
ALAMANCE COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL ON EXPOSED
SURFACE OBJECTS AS WELL AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES TO FORM A THIN
GLAZE...ENOUGH TO MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS IN SPOTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
THIS MORNING.

FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE ALOFT (APPROACHING 8 DEGREES C IN THE
NW PIEDMONT BY LATE MORNING) MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SUB
FREEZING CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. THUS WHILE SFC TEMPS IN THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT MAY BE 31-32 DEGREES BY MID DAY...ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCRUAL WILL BE SEVERELY LIMITED. PLAN TO MAINTAIN ADVISORY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH-NW UNTIL 4 PM BUT WILL ASSESS TEMP RESPONSE LATER THIS
MORNING WITH A POSSIBILITY OF ENDING THE ADVISORY A FEW HOURS
EARLIER. ELSEWHERE CURRENT ADVISORY END TIMES APPEAR ON TARGET.

MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE PRECIP
BECOMES AND WHEN IT TAPERS OFF. COUNTING ON PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH
A GOOD PART OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
THERE A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONVERSELY...HAVE
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE WEST-SW WHERE
PRECIP MAY TAPER OFF BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...

TONIGHT...EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED WHILE A SLY
SFC WIND WILL BEGIN TO STIR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-
NW. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.

MONDAY...SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING.
APPEARS MOISTURE DEPTH FAIRLY LIMITED TO GENERATE ANY PRECIP ACROSS
THE NW BUT MAY BE ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SE TO DEVELOP A FEW
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AID TO ADVECT
A DRIER AIR MASS IN THE REGION. THIS WILL SLOWLY ERODE CLOUD
COVERAGE FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE TEMPS REBOUND
INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT BY AFTERNOON (LESS SO ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SE). FAVORED
COOLER NAM MOS GUIDANCE VERSUS THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF CENTRAL NC AND AND MID LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH WILL BOTH QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER... THE LINGERING COLD DRY SURFACE AIR
DEPOSITED BY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR AN INSITU
CAD EVENT ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT... POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. WARM MOIST AIR
WILL INCREASING IN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THIS
AND THE LINGERING COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WE SHOULD SEE SOME
ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN PRECIP DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30
NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE LIGHT PRECIP IN
AFTER SURFACE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE ENOUGH TO AVOID AND
NUISANCE FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER... HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND GREATLY AFFECTED BY THE CAD AIRMASS. MAV STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO WARM FOR TUESDAY... WITH THE RAW GFS
TEMPS CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE VALUES. FOR NOW WILL LOWER TEMPS
FURTHER... AND THIS MAY NOT EVEN BE FAR ENOUGH. WILL WO WITH HIGH
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT... BEFORE SLOWLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME PARALLE WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES MORE OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH... WHICH
APPEARS TO PHASE SOME THE THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM... RESULTING IN A DEEP FETCH OF SOUTHWESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW... ALONG WITH SEVERAL SURFACE LOWS TRACKING ALONG THE
FRONT FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT... MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY MID-MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE THURSDAY (WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP...
POSSIBLY SOME HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN). IN ADDITION... MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH SURGING THE STRONG/DEEP COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR... WE COULD POSSIBLE SEE SOME
WINTRY P-TYPES ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER... GIVEN WE ARE STILL TALKING
ABOUT DAY 5 IN THE FORECAST AND WE ARE NOW IN THE MONTH OF MARCH...
WILL WAIT TO ADD ANY NON-LIQUID P-TYPE TO THE FORECAST. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER...  THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN MAY REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS... WE COULD
CONCEIVABLY SEE SOME PRECIP IF ONE SUCH SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL INCLUDE SOME DECENT SWINGS...
WITH HIGHS TEMPS WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S... THURSDAY 40S AND
50S (MAYBE COLDER)... WITH FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH MAYBE SOME
30S EVEN). WE WILL SEE SOME MODERATING BY SATURDAY... GENERALLY BACK
INTO THE 50S... GIVEN WE REAMIN DRY. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PATTERN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...  ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE
IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE... OUTSIDE OF *MAYBE* A
BRIEF PERIOD AS THE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 825 AM SUNDAY...


WIDESPREAD LOW END MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...AND
EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
THROUGH 15Z...THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN. IN ADDITION...A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI.

THE FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW PIEDMONT WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A COLD
RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF BY SUNSET...WIDESPREAD FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. WEST-NW FLOW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS...LEADING TO A SCOURING OF THE
MURKY NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS. EXPECT IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ042-077-
078-083>086-088-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR
NCZ008>011-024>028-040-041-043-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011325
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
825 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...

TODAY...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM PARENT ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING. RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING 925-850MB
HIGH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST ADVECTING OVER THE COLD STABLE AIR MASS
AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN PATCHES OF LIGHT PRECIP TO BEAK
OUT OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ...AND
BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AT 08Z. WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS SPREAD OF 12-16 DEGREES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN...EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD DROP SFC TEMPS TO BELOW
FREEZING FOR SEVERAL HOURS ONCE THE PRECIPITATION SETS IN. OVER THE
FAR SOUTH-SE...THIS TIME BELOW FREEZING SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF HOURS (IF THAT).

APPEARS BEST THREAT FOR ICE ACCRUAL OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR A
LITTLE MORE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT/VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FORSYTH...GUILFORD AND
ALAMANCE COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL ON EXPOSED
SURFACE OBJECTS AS WELL AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES TO FORM A THIN
GLAZE...ENOUGH TO MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS IN SPOTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
THIS MORNING.

FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE ALOFT (APPROACHING 8 DEGREES C IN THE
NW PIEDMONT BY LATE MORNING) MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SUB
FREEZING CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. THUS WHILE SFC TEMPS IN THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT MAY BE 31-32 DEGREES BY MID DAY...ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCRUAL WILL BE SEVERELY LIMITED. PLAN TO MAINTAIN ADVISORY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH-NW UNTIL 4 PM BUT WILL ASSESS TEMP RESPONSE LATER THIS
MORNING WITH A POSSIBILITY OF ENDING THE ADVISORY A FEW HOURS
EARLIER. ELSEWHERE CURRENT ADVISORY END TIMES APPEAR ON TARGET.

MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE PRECIP
BECOMES AND WHEN IT TAPERS OFF. COUNTING ON PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH
A GOOD PART OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
THERE A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONVERSELY...HAVE
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE WEST-SW WHERE
PRECIP MAY TAPER OFF BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...

TONIGHT...EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED WHILE A SLY
SFC WIND WILL BEGIN TO STIR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-
NW. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.

MONDAY...SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING.
APPEARS MOISTURE DEPTH FAIRLY LIMITED TO GENERATE ANY PRECIP ACROSS
THE NW BUT MAY BE ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SE TO DEVELOP A FEW
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AID TO ADVECT
A DRIER AIR MASS IN THE REGION. THIS WILL SLOWLY ERODE CLOUD
COVERAGE FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE TEMPS REBOUND
INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT BY AFTERNOON (LESS SO ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SE). FAVORED
COOLER NAM MOS GUIDANCE VERSUS THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF CENTRAL NC AND AND MID LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH WILL BOTH QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER... THE LINGERING COLD DRY SURFACE AIR
DEPOSITED BY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR AN INSITU
CAD EVENT ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT... POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. WARM MOIST AIR
WILL INCREASING IN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THIS
AND THE LINGERING COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WE SHOULD SEE SOME
ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN PRECIP DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30
NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE LIGHT PRECIP IN
AFTER SURFACE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE ENOUGH TO AVOID AND
NUISANCE FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER... HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND GREATLY AFFECTED BY THE CAD AIRMASS. MAV STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO WARM FOR TUESDAY... WITH THE RAW GFS
TEMPS CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE VALUES. FOR NOW WILL LOWER TEMPS
FURTHER... AND THIS MAY NOT EVEN BE FAR ENOUGH. WILL WO WITH HIGH
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT... BEFORE SLOWLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME PARALLE WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES MORE OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH... WHICH
APPEARS TO PHASE SOME THE THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM... RESULTING IN A DEEP FETCH OF SOUTHWESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW... ALONG WITH SEVERAL SURFACE LOWS TRACKING ALONG THE
FRONT FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT... MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY MID-MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE THURSDAY (WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP...
POSSIBLY SOME HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN). IN ADDITION... MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH SURGING THE STRONG/DEEP COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR... WE COULD POSSIBLE SEE SOME
WINTRY P-TYPES ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER... GIVEN WE ARE STILL TALKING
ABOUT DAY 5 IN THE FORECAST AND WE ARE NOW IN THE MONTH OF MARCH...
WILL WAIT TO ADD ANY NON-LIQUID P-TYPE TO THE FORECAST. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER...  THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN MAY REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS... WE COULD
CONCEIVABLY SEE SOME PRECIP IF ONE SUCH SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL INCLUDE SOME DECENT SWINGS...
WITH HIGHS TEMPS WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S... THURSDAY 40S AND
50S (MAYBE COLDER)... WITH FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH MAYBE SOME
30S EVEN). WE WILL SEE SOME MODERATING BY SATURDAY... GENERALLY BACK
INTO THE 50S... GIVEN WE REAMIN DRY. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PATTERN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...  ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE
IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE... OUTSIDE OF *MAYBE* A
BRIEF PERIOD AS THE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 825 AM SUNDAY...


WIDESPREAD LOW END MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...AND
EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
THROUGH 15Z...THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN. IN ADDITION...A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI.

THE FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW PIEDMONT WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A COLD
RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF BY SUNSET...WIDESPREAD FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. WEST-NW FLOW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS...LEADING TO A SCOURING OF THE
MURKY NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS. EXPECT IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ042-077-
078-083>086-088-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR
NCZ008>011-024>028-040-041-043-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011115
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...

TODAY...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM PARENT ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING. RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING 925-850MB
HIGH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST ADVECTING OVER THE COLD STABLE AIR MASS
AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN PATCHES OF LIGHT PRECIP TO BEAK
OUT OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ...AND
BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AT 08Z. WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS SPREAD OF 12-16 DEGREES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN...EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD DROP SFC TEMPS TO BELOW
FREEZING FOR SEVERAL HOURS ONCE THE PRECIPITATION SETS IN. OVER THE
FAR SOUTH-SE...THIS TIME BELOW FREEZING SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF HOURS (IF THAT).

APPEARS BEST THREAT FOR ICE ACCRUAL OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR A
LITTLE MORE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT/VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FORSYTH...GUILFORD AND
ALAMANCE COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL ON EXPOSED
SURFACE OBJECTS AS WELL AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES TO FORM A THIN
GLAZE...ENOUGH TO MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS IN SPOTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
THIS MORNING.

FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE ALOFT (APPROACHING 8 DEGREES C IN THE
NW PIEDMONT BY LATE MORNING) MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SUB
FREEZING CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. THUS WHILE SFC TEMPS IN THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT MAY BE 31-32 DEGREES BY MID DAY...ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCRUAL WILL BE SEVERELY LIMITED. PLAN TO MAINTAIN ADVISORY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH-NW UNTIL 4 PM BUT WILL ASSESS TEMP RESPONSE LATER THIS
MORNING WITH A POSSIBILITY OF ENDING THE ADVISORY A FEW HOURS
EARLIER. ELSEWHERE CURRENT ADVISORY END TIMES APPEAR ON TARGET.

MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE PRECIP
BECOMES AND WHEN IT TAPERS OFF. COUNTING ON PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH
A GOOD PART OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
THERE A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONVERSELY...HAVE
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE WEST-SW WHERE
PRECIP MAY TAPER OFF BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...

TONIGHT...EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED WHILE A SLY
SFC WIND WILL BEGIN TO STIR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-
NW. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.

MONDAY...SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING.
APPEARS MOISTURE DEPTH FAIRLY LIMITED TO GENERATE ANY PRECIP ACROSS
THE NW BUT MAY BE ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SE TO DEVELOP A FEW
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AID TO ADVECT
A DRIER AIR MASS IN THE REGION. THIS WILL SLOWLY ERODE CLOUD
COVERAGE FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE TEMPS REBOUND
INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT BY AFTERNOON (LESS SO ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SE). FAVORED
COOLER NAM MOS GUIDANCE VERSUS THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF CENTRAL NC AND AND MID LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH WILL BOTH QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER... THE LINGERING COLD DRY SURFACE AIR
DEPOSITED BY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR AN INSITU
CAD EVENT ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT... POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. WARM MOIST AIR
WILL INCREASING IN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THIS
AND THE LINGERING COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WE SHOULD SEE SOME
ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN PRECIP DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30
NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE LIGHT PRECIP IN
AFTER SURFACE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE ENOUGH TO AVOID AND
NUISANCE FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER... HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND GREATLY AFFECTED BY THE CAD AIRMASS. MAV STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO WARM FOR TUESDAY... WITH THE RAW GFS
TEMPS CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE VALUES. FOR NOW WILL LOWER TEMPS
FURTHER... AND THIS MAY NOT EVEN BE FAR ENOUGH. WILL WO WITH HIGH
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT... BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME PARALLE WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES MORE OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH... WHICH APPEARS
TO PHASE SOME THE THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM... RESULTING IN A DEEP FETCH OF SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW... ALONG WITH SEVERAL SURFACE LOWS TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT
FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT... MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
LATE THURSDAY (WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP... POSSIBLY SOME HEAVY
AMOUNTS OF RAIN). IN ADDITION... MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH
SURGING THE STRONG/DEEP COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. IF
THIS WERE TO OCCUR... WE COULD POSSIBLE SEE SOME WINTRY P-TYPES ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER... GIVEN WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT DAY 5 IN THE
FORECAST AND WE ARE NOW IN THE MONTH OF MARCH... WILL WAIT TO ADD
ANY NON-LIQUID P-TYPE TO THE FORECAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER...  THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN MAY
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS... WE COULD CONCEIVABLY SEE
SOME PRECIP IF ONE SUCH SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL INCLUDE SOME DECENT SWINGS...
WITH HIGHS TEMPS WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S... THURSDAY 40S AND
50S (MAYBE COLDER)... WITH FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH MAYBE SOME
30S EVEN). WE WILL SEE SOME MODERATING BY SATURDAY... GENERALLY BACK
INTO THE 50S... GIVEN WE REAMIN DRY. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PATTERN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...  ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE
IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE... OUTSIDE OF *MAYBE* A
BRIEF PERIOD AS THE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

BY 12Z...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW END MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...AND
EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. BETWEEN 12Z-
15Z...THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN. IN ADDITION...A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI.

THE FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW PIEDMONT WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A COLD
RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF BY SUNSET...WIDESPREAD FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. WEST-NW FLOW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS...LEADING TO A SCOURING OF THE
MURKY NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS. EXPECT IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ042-077-
078-083>086-088-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR
NCZ008>011-024>028-040-041-043-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011115
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...

TODAY...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM PARENT ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING. RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING 925-850MB
HIGH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST ADVECTING OVER THE COLD STABLE AIR MASS
AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN PATCHES OF LIGHT PRECIP TO BEAK
OUT OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ...AND
BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AT 08Z. WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS SPREAD OF 12-16 DEGREES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN...EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD DROP SFC TEMPS TO BELOW
FREEZING FOR SEVERAL HOURS ONCE THE PRECIPITATION SETS IN. OVER THE
FAR SOUTH-SE...THIS TIME BELOW FREEZING SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF HOURS (IF THAT).

APPEARS BEST THREAT FOR ICE ACCRUAL OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR A
LITTLE MORE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT/VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FORSYTH...GUILFORD AND
ALAMANCE COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL ON EXPOSED
SURFACE OBJECTS AS WELL AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES TO FORM A THIN
GLAZE...ENOUGH TO MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS IN SPOTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
THIS MORNING.

FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE ALOFT (APPROACHING 8 DEGREES C IN THE
NW PIEDMONT BY LATE MORNING) MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SUB
FREEZING CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. THUS WHILE SFC TEMPS IN THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT MAY BE 31-32 DEGREES BY MID DAY...ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCRUAL WILL BE SEVERELY LIMITED. PLAN TO MAINTAIN ADVISORY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH-NW UNTIL 4 PM BUT WILL ASSESS TEMP RESPONSE LATER THIS
MORNING WITH A POSSIBILITY OF ENDING THE ADVISORY A FEW HOURS
EARLIER. ELSEWHERE CURRENT ADVISORY END TIMES APPEAR ON TARGET.

MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE PRECIP
BECOMES AND WHEN IT TAPERS OFF. COUNTING ON PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH
A GOOD PART OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
THERE A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONVERSELY...HAVE
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE WEST-SW WHERE
PRECIP MAY TAPER OFF BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...

TONIGHT...EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED WHILE A SLY
SFC WIND WILL BEGIN TO STIR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-
NW. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.

MONDAY...SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING.
APPEARS MOISTURE DEPTH FAIRLY LIMITED TO GENERATE ANY PRECIP ACROSS
THE NW BUT MAY BE ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SE TO DEVELOP A FEW
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AID TO ADVECT
A DRIER AIR MASS IN THE REGION. THIS WILL SLOWLY ERODE CLOUD
COVERAGE FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE TEMPS REBOUND
INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT BY AFTERNOON (LESS SO ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SE). FAVORED
COOLER NAM MOS GUIDANCE VERSUS THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF CENTRAL NC AND AND MID LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH WILL BOTH QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER... THE LINGERING COLD DRY SURFACE AIR
DEPOSITED BY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR AN INSITU
CAD EVENT ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT... POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. WARM MOIST AIR
WILL INCREASING IN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THIS
AND THE LINGERING COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WE SHOULD SEE SOME
ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN PRECIP DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30
NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE LIGHT PRECIP IN
AFTER SURFACE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE ENOUGH TO AVOID AND
NUISANCE FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER... HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND GREATLY AFFECTED BY THE CAD AIRMASS. MAV STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO WARM FOR TUESDAY... WITH THE RAW GFS
TEMPS CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE VALUES. FOR NOW WILL LOWER TEMPS
FURTHER... AND THIS MAY NOT EVEN BE FAR ENOUGH. WILL WO WITH HIGH
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT... BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME PARALLE WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES MORE OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH... WHICH APPEARS
TO PHASE SOME THE THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM... RESULTING IN A DEEP FETCH OF SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW... ALONG WITH SEVERAL SURFACE LOWS TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT
FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT... MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
LATE THURSDAY (WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP... POSSIBLY SOME HEAVY
AMOUNTS OF RAIN). IN ADDITION... MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH
SURGING THE STRONG/DEEP COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. IF
THIS WERE TO OCCUR... WE COULD POSSIBLE SEE SOME WINTRY P-TYPES ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER... GIVEN WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT DAY 5 IN THE
FORECAST AND WE ARE NOW IN THE MONTH OF MARCH... WILL WAIT TO ADD
ANY NON-LIQUID P-TYPE TO THE FORECAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER...  THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN MAY
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK
ALONG THE FRONT... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS... WE COULD CONCEIVABLY SEE
SOME PRECIP IF ONE SUCH SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL INCLUDE SOME DECENT SWINGS...
WITH HIGHS TEMPS WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S... THURSDAY 40S AND
50S (MAYBE COLDER)... WITH FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH MAYBE SOME
30S EVEN). WE WILL SEE SOME MODERATING BY SATURDAY... GENERALLY BACK
INTO THE 50S... GIVEN WE REAMIN DRY. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PATTERN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...  ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE
IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE... OUTSIDE OF *MAYBE* A
BRIEF PERIOD AS THE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

BY 12Z...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW END MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...AND
EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. BETWEEN 12Z-
15Z...THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN. IN ADDITION...A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI.

THE FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW PIEDMONT WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A COLD
RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF BY SUNSET...WIDESPREAD FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. WEST-NW FLOW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS...LEADING TO A SCOURING OF THE
MURKY NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS. EXPECT IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ042-077-
078-083>086-088-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR
NCZ008>011-024>028-040-041-043-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010845
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...

TODAY...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM PARENT ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING. RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING 925-850MB
HIGH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST ADVECTING OVER THE COLD STABLE AIR MASS
AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN PATCHES OF LIGHT PRECIP TO BEAK
OUT OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ...AND
BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AT 08Z. WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS SPREAD OF 12-16 DEGREES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN...EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD DROP SFC TEMPS TO BELOW
FREEZING FOR SEVERAL HOURS ONCE THE PRECIPITATION SETS IN. OVER THE
FAR SOUTH-SE...THIS TIME BELOW FREEZING SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF HOURS (IF THAT).

APPEARS BEST THREAT FOR ICE ACCRUAL OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR A
LITTLE MORE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT/VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FORSYTH...GUILFORD AND
ALAMANCE COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL ON EXPOSED
SURFACE OBJECTS AS WELL AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES TO FORM A THIN
GLAZE...ENOUGH TO MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS IN SPOTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
THIS MORNING.

FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE ALOFT (APPROACHING 8 DEGREES C IN THE
NW PIEDMONT BY LATE MORNING) MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SUB
FREEZING CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. THUS WHILE SFC TEMPS IN THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT MAY BE 31-32 DEGREES BY MID DAY...ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCRUAL WILL BE SEVERELY LIMITED. PLAN TO MAINTAIN ADVISORY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH-NW UNTIL 4 PM BUT WILL ASSESS TEMP RESPONSE LATER THIS
MORNING WITH A POSSIBILITY OF ENDING THE ADVISORY A FEW HOURS
EARLIER. ELSEWHERE CURRENT ADVISORY END TIMES APPEAR ON TARGET.

MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE PRECIP
BECOMES AND WHEN IT TAPERS OFF. COUNTING ON PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH
A GOOD PART OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
THERE A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONVERSELY...HAVE
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE WEST-SW WHERE
PRECIP MAY TAPER OFF BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...

TONIGHT...EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED WHILE A SLY
SFC WIND WILL BEGIN TO STIR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-
NW. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.

MONDAY...SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING.
APPEARS MOISTURE DEPTH FAIRLY LIMITED TO GENERATE ANY PRECIP ACROSS
THE NW BUT MAY BE ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SE TO DEVELOP A FEW
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AID TO ADVECT
A DRIER AIR MASS IN THE REGION. THIS WILL SLOWLY ERODE CLOUD
COVERAGE FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE TEMPS REBOUND
INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT BY AFTERNOON (LESS SO ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SE). FAVORED
COOLER NAM MOS GUIDANCE VERSUS THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF CENTRAL NC AND AND MID LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH WILL BOTH QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER... THE LINGERING COLD DRY SURFACE AIR
DEPOSITED BY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR AN INSITU
CAD EVENT ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT... POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. WARM MOIST AIR
WILL INCREASING IN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THIS
AND THE LINGERING COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WE SHOULD SEE SOME
ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN PRECIP DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30
NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE LIGHT PRECIP IN
AFTER SURFACE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE ENOUGH TO AVOID AND
NUISANCE FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER... HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND GREATLY AFFECTED BY THE CAD AIRMASS. MAV STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO WARM FOR TUESDAY... WITH THE RAW GFS
TEMPS CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE VALUES. FOR NOW WILL LOWER TEMPS
FURTHER... AND THIS MAY NOT EVEN BE FAR ENOUGH. WILL WO WITH HIGH
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT... BEFORE SLOWLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME PARALLE WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES MORE OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH... WHICH
APPEARS TO PHASE SOME THE THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM... RESULTING IN A DEEP FETCH OF SOUTHWESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW... ALONG WITH SEVERAL SURFACE LOWS TRACKING ALONG THE
FRONT FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT... MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY MID-MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE THURSDAY (WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP...
POSSIBLY SOME HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN). IN ADDITION... MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH SURGING THE STRONG/DEEP COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR... WE COULD POSSIBLE SEE SOME
WINTRY P-TYPES ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER... GIVEN WE ARE STILL TALKING
ABOUT DAY 5 IN THE FORECAST AND WE ARE NOW IN THE MONTH OF MARCH...
WILL WAIT TO ADD ANY NON-LIQUID P-TYPE TO THE FORECAST. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER...  THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN MAY REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS... WE COULD
CONCEIVABLY SEE SOME PRECIP IF ONE SUCH SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL INCLUDE SOME DECENT SWINGS...
WITH HIGHS TEMPS WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S... THURSDAY 40S AND
50S (MAYBE COLDER)... WITH FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH MAYBE SOME
30S EVEN). WE WILL SEE SOME MODERATING BY SATURDAY... GENERALLY BACK
INTO THE 50S... GIVEN WE REAMIN DRY. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PATTERN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...  ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE
IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE... OUTSIDE OF *MAYBE* A
BRIEF PERIOD AS THE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

BY 12Z...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW END MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...AND
EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. BETWEEN 12Z-
15Z...THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN. IN ADDITION...A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI.

THE FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW PIEDMONT WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A COLD
RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF BY SUNSET...WIDESPREAD FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. WEST-NW FLOW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS...LEADING TO A SCOURING OF THE
MURKY NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS. EXPECT IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ042-077-
078-083>086-088-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR
NCZ008>011-024>028-040-041-043-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010845
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...

TODAY...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM PARENT ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING. RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING 925-850MB
HIGH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST ADVECTING OVER THE COLD STABLE AIR MASS
AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN PATCHES OF LIGHT PRECIP TO BEAK
OUT OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ...AND
BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AT 08Z. WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS SPREAD OF 12-16 DEGREES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN...EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD DROP SFC TEMPS TO BELOW
FREEZING FOR SEVERAL HOURS ONCE THE PRECIPITATION SETS IN. OVER THE
FAR SOUTH-SE...THIS TIME BELOW FREEZING SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF HOURS (IF THAT).

APPEARS BEST THREAT FOR ICE ACCRUAL OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR A
LITTLE MORE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT/VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FORSYTH...GUILFORD AND
ALAMANCE COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL ON EXPOSED
SURFACE OBJECTS AS WELL AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES TO FORM A THIN
GLAZE...ENOUGH TO MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS IN SPOTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
THIS MORNING.

FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE ALOFT (APPROACHING 8 DEGREES C IN THE
NW PIEDMONT BY LATE MORNING) MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SUB
FREEZING CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. THUS WHILE SFC TEMPS IN THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT MAY BE 31-32 DEGREES BY MID DAY...ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCRUAL WILL BE SEVERELY LIMITED. PLAN TO MAINTAIN ADVISORY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH-NW UNTIL 4 PM BUT WILL ASSESS TEMP RESPONSE LATER THIS
MORNING WITH A POSSIBILITY OF ENDING THE ADVISORY A FEW HOURS
EARLIER. ELSEWHERE CURRENT ADVISORY END TIMES APPEAR ON TARGET.

MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE PRECIP
BECOMES AND WHEN IT TAPERS OFF. COUNTING ON PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH
A GOOD PART OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
THERE A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONVERSELY...HAVE
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE WEST-SW WHERE
PRECIP MAY TAPER OFF BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...

TONIGHT...EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED WHILE A SLY
SFC WIND WILL BEGIN TO STIR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-
NW. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.

MONDAY...SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING.
APPEARS MOISTURE DEPTH FAIRLY LIMITED TO GENERATE ANY PRECIP ACROSS
THE NW BUT MAY BE ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SE TO DEVELOP A FEW
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AID TO ADVECT
A DRIER AIR MASS IN THE REGION. THIS WILL SLOWLY ERODE CLOUD
COVERAGE FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE TEMPS REBOUND
INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT BY AFTERNOON (LESS SO ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SE). FAVORED
COOLER NAM MOS GUIDANCE VERSUS THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF CENTRAL NC AND AND MID LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH WILL BOTH QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER... THE LINGERING COLD DRY SURFACE AIR
DEPOSITED BY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR AN INSITU
CAD EVENT ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT... POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. WARM MOIST AIR
WILL INCREASING IN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THIS
AND THE LINGERING COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WE SHOULD SEE SOME
ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN PRECIP DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30
NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE LIGHT PRECIP IN
AFTER SURFACE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE ENOUGH TO AVOID AND
NUISANCE FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER... HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND GREATLY AFFECTED BY THE CAD AIRMASS. MAV STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO WARM FOR TUESDAY... WITH THE RAW GFS
TEMPS CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE VALUES. FOR NOW WILL LOWER TEMPS
FURTHER... AND THIS MAY NOT EVEN BE FAR ENOUGH. WILL WO WITH HIGH
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT... BEFORE SLOWLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME PARALLE WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES MORE OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH... WHICH
APPEARS TO PHASE SOME THE THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM... RESULTING IN A DEEP FETCH OF SOUTHWESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW... ALONG WITH SEVERAL SURFACE LOWS TRACKING ALONG THE
FRONT FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT... MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY MID-MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE THURSDAY (WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP...
POSSIBLY SOME HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN). IN ADDITION... MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH SURGING THE STRONG/DEEP COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR... WE COULD POSSIBLE SEE SOME
WINTRY P-TYPES ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER... GIVEN WE ARE STILL TALKING
ABOUT DAY 5 IN THE FORECAST AND WE ARE NOW IN THE MONTH OF MARCH...
WILL WAIT TO ADD ANY NON-LIQUID P-TYPE TO THE FORECAST. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER...  THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN MAY REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS... WE COULD
CONCEIVABLY SEE SOME PRECIP IF ONE SUCH SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL INCLUDE SOME DECENT SWINGS...
WITH HIGHS TEMPS WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S... THURSDAY 40S AND
50S (MAYBE COLDER)... WITH FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH MAYBE SOME
30S EVEN). WE WILL SEE SOME MODERATING BY SATURDAY... GENERALLY BACK
INTO THE 50S... GIVEN WE REAMIN DRY. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PATTERN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...  ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE
IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE... OUTSIDE OF *MAYBE* A
BRIEF PERIOD AS THE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

BY 12Z...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW END MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...AND
EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. BETWEEN 12Z-
15Z...THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN. IN ADDITION...A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI.

THE FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW PIEDMONT WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A COLD
RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF BY SUNSET...WIDESPREAD FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. WEST-NW FLOW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS...LEADING TO A SCOURING OF THE
MURKY NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS. EXPECT IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ042-077-
078-083>086-088-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR
NCZ008>011-024>028-040-041-043-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010845
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...

TODAY...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM PARENT ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING. RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING 925-850MB
HIGH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST ADVECTING OVER THE COLD STABLE AIR MASS
AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN PATCHES OF LIGHT PRECIP TO BEAK
OUT OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ...AND
BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AT 08Z. WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS SPREAD OF 12-16 DEGREES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN...EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD DROP SFC TEMPS TO BELOW
FREEZING FOR SEVERAL HOURS ONCE THE PRECIPITATION SETS IN. OVER THE
FAR SOUTH-SE...THIS TIME BELOW FREEZING SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF HOURS (IF THAT).

APPEARS BEST THREAT FOR ICE ACCRUAL OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR A
LITTLE MORE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT/VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FORSYTH...GUILFORD AND
ALAMANCE COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL ON EXPOSED
SURFACE OBJECTS AS WELL AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES TO FORM A THIN
GLAZE...ENOUGH TO MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS IN SPOTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
THIS MORNING.

FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE ALOFT (APPROACHING 8 DEGREES C IN THE
NW PIEDMONT BY LATE MORNING) MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SUB
FREEZING CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. THUS WHILE SFC TEMPS IN THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT MAY BE 31-32 DEGREES BY MID DAY...ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCRUAL WILL BE SEVERELY LIMITED. PLAN TO MAINTAIN ADVISORY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH-NW UNTIL 4 PM BUT WILL ASSESS TEMP RESPONSE LATER THIS
MORNING WITH A POSSIBILITY OF ENDING THE ADVISORY A FEW HOURS
EARLIER. ELSEWHERE CURRENT ADVISORY END TIMES APPEAR ON TARGET.

MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE PRECIP
BECOMES AND WHEN IT TAPERS OFF. COUNTING ON PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH
A GOOD PART OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
THERE A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONVERSELY...HAVE
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE WEST-SW WHERE
PRECIP MAY TAPER OFF BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...

TONIGHT...EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED WHILE A SLY
SFC WIND WILL BEGIN TO STIR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-
NW. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.

MONDAY...SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING.
APPEARS MOISTURE DEPTH FAIRLY LIMITED TO GENERATE ANY PRECIP ACROSS
THE NW BUT MAY BE ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SE TO DEVELOP A FEW
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AID TO ADVECT
A DRIER AIR MASS IN THE REGION. THIS WILL SLOWLY ERODE CLOUD
COVERAGE FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE TEMPS REBOUND
INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT BY AFTERNOON (LESS SO ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SE). FAVORED
COOLER NAM MOS GUIDANCE VERSUS THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF CENTRAL NC AND AND MID LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH WILL BOTH QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER... THE LINGERING COLD DRY SURFACE AIR
DEPOSITED BY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR AN INSITU
CAD EVENT ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT... POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. WARM MOIST AIR
WILL INCREASING IN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THIS
AND THE LINGERING COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WE SHOULD SEE SOME
ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN PRECIP DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30
NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE LIGHT PRECIP IN
AFTER SURFACE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE ENOUGH TO AVOID AND
NUISANCE FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER... HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND GREATLY AFFECTED BY THE CAD AIRMASS. MAV STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO WARM FOR TUESDAY... WITH THE RAW GFS
TEMPS CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE VALUES. FOR NOW WILL LOWER TEMPS
FURTHER... AND THIS MAY NOT EVEN BE FAR ENOUGH. WILL WO WITH HIGH
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT... BEFORE SLOWLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME PARALLE WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES MORE OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH... WHICH
APPEARS TO PHASE SOME THE THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM... RESULTING IN A DEEP FETCH OF SOUTHWESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW... ALONG WITH SEVERAL SURFACE LOWS TRACKING ALONG THE
FRONT FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT... MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY MID-MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE THURSDAY (WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP...
POSSIBLY SOME HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN). IN ADDITION... MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH SURGING THE STRONG/DEEP COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR... WE COULD POSSIBLE SEE SOME
WINTRY P-TYPES ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER... GIVEN WE ARE STILL TALKING
ABOUT DAY 5 IN THE FORECAST AND WE ARE NOW IN THE MONTH OF MARCH...
WILL WAIT TO ADD ANY NON-LIQUID P-TYPE TO THE FORECAST. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER...  THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN MAY REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS... WE COULD
CONCEIVABLY SEE SOME PRECIP IF ONE SUCH SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL INCLUDE SOME DECENT SWINGS...
WITH HIGHS TEMPS WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S... THURSDAY 40S AND
50S (MAYBE COLDER)... WITH FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH MAYBE SOME
30S EVEN). WE WILL SEE SOME MODERATING BY SATURDAY... GENERALLY BACK
INTO THE 50S... GIVEN WE REAMIN DRY. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PATTERN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...  ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE
IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE... OUTSIDE OF *MAYBE* A
BRIEF PERIOD AS THE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

BY 12Z...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW END MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...AND
EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. BETWEEN 12Z-
15Z...THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN. IN ADDITION...A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI.

THE FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW PIEDMONT WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A COLD
RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF BY SUNSET...WIDESPREAD FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. WEST-NW FLOW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS...LEADING TO A SCOURING OF THE
MURKY NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS. EXPECT IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ042-077-
078-083>086-088-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR
NCZ008>011-024>028-040-041-043-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010845
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...

TODAY...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM PARENT ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC MAINTAIN A SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING. RETURN SLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING 925-850MB
HIGH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST ADVECTING OVER THE COLD STABLE AIR MASS
AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN PATCHES OF LIGHT PRECIP TO BEAK
OUT OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ...AND
BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AT 08Z. WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS SPREAD OF 12-16 DEGREES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN...EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD DROP SFC TEMPS TO BELOW
FREEZING FOR SEVERAL HOURS ONCE THE PRECIPITATION SETS IN. OVER THE
FAR SOUTH-SE...THIS TIME BELOW FREEZING SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A
COUPLE OF HOURS (IF THAT).

APPEARS BEST THREAT FOR ICE ACCRUAL OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR A
LITTLE MORE WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT/VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FORSYTH...GUILFORD AND
ALAMANCE COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL ON EXPOSED
SURFACE OBJECTS AS WELL AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES TO FORM A THIN
GLAZE...ENOUGH TO MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS IN SPOTS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
THIS MORNING.

FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE ALOFT (APPROACHING 8 DEGREES C IN THE
NW PIEDMONT BY LATE MORNING) MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE SUB
FREEZING CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. THUS WHILE SFC TEMPS IN THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT MAY BE 31-32 DEGREES BY MID DAY...ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCRUAL WILL BE SEVERELY LIMITED. PLAN TO MAINTAIN ADVISORY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH-NW UNTIL 4 PM BUT WILL ASSESS TEMP RESPONSE LATER THIS
MORNING WITH A POSSIBILITY OF ENDING THE ADVISORY A FEW HOURS
EARLIER. ELSEWHERE CURRENT ADVISORY END TIMES APPEAR ON TARGET.

MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDENT UPON ON HOW EXTENSIVE THE PRECIP
BECOMES AND WHEN IT TAPERS OFF. COUNTING ON PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH
A GOOD PART OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
THERE A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONVERSELY...HAVE
ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE WEST-SW WHERE
PRECIP MAY TAPER OFF BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SUNDAY...

TONIGHT...EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED WHILE A SLY
SFC WIND WILL BEGIN TO STIR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-
NW. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.

MONDAY...SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING.
APPEARS MOISTURE DEPTH FAIRLY LIMITED TO GENERATE ANY PRECIP ACROSS
THE NW BUT MAY BE ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SE TO DEVELOP A FEW
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AID TO ADVECT
A DRIER AIR MASS IN THE REGION. THIS WILL SLOWLY ERODE CLOUD
COVERAGE FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE TEMPS REBOUND
INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER MOST OF THE
PIEDMONT BY AFTERNOON (LESS SO ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SE). FAVORED
COOLER NAM MOS GUIDANCE VERSUS THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF CENTRAL NC AND AND MID LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH WILL BOTH QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER... THE LINGERING COLD DRY SURFACE AIR
DEPOSITED BY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR AN INSITU
CAD EVENT ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT... POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. WARM MOIST AIR
WILL INCREASING IN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THIS
AND THE LINGERING COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WE SHOULD SEE SOME
ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN PRECIP DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30
NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE LIGHT PRECIP IN
AFTER SURFACE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE ENOUGH TO AVOID AND
NUISANCE FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER... HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND GREATLY AFFECTED BY THE CAD AIRMASS. MAV STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO WARM FOR TUESDAY... WITH THE RAW GFS
TEMPS CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE VALUES. FOR NOW WILL LOWER TEMPS
FURTHER... AND THIS MAY NOT EVEN BE FAR ENOUGH. WILL WO WITH HIGH
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT... BEFORE SLOWLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME PARALLE WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES MORE OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH... WHICH
APPEARS TO PHASE SOME THE THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM... RESULTING IN A DEEP FETCH OF SOUTHWESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW... ALONG WITH SEVERAL SURFACE LOWS TRACKING ALONG THE
FRONT FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT... MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY MID-MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE THURSDAY (WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP...
POSSIBLY SOME HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN). IN ADDITION... MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH SURGING THE STRONG/DEEP COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR... WE COULD POSSIBLE SEE SOME
WINTRY P-TYPES ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER... GIVEN WE ARE STILL TALKING
ABOUT DAY 5 IN THE FORECAST AND WE ARE NOW IN THE MONTH OF MARCH...
WILL WAIT TO ADD ANY NON-LIQUID P-TYPE TO THE FORECAST. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER...  THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN MAY REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS... WE COULD
CONCEIVABLY SEE SOME PRECIP IF ONE SUCH SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL INCLUDE SOME DECENT SWINGS...
WITH HIGHS TEMPS WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S... THURSDAY 40S AND
50S (MAYBE COLDER)... WITH FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH MAYBE SOME
30S EVEN). WE WILL SEE SOME MODERATING BY SATURDAY... GENERALLY BACK
INTO THE 50S... GIVEN WE REAMIN DRY. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PATTERN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...  ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE
IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE... OUTSIDE OF *MAYBE* A
BRIEF PERIOD AS THE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

BY 12Z...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW END MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...AND
EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. BETWEEN 12Z-
15Z...THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN. IN ADDITION...A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI.

THE FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW PIEDMONT WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A COLD
RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF BY SUNSET...WIDESPREAD FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. WEST-NW FLOW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS...LEADING TO A SCOURING OF THE
MURKY NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS. EXPECT IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ042-077-
078-083>086-088-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR
NCZ008>011-024>028-040-041-043-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010827
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
326 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

STRONG 1043MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA HAS SUPPLIED A VERY
DRY AIRMASS FOR CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
TEENS.  MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE AIRMASS A BIT...WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF BEING TO COLD THIS EVENING...BUT THE WETBULB FREEZING LINE
IS SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH TO THE NC/SC BORDER.  EARLY ON... RADAR
RETURNS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC AND APPEAR TO
BE INITIALLY DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION UP NEAR 700MB.  DRIER AIR
BELOW HAS KEPT THE PRECIP SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT
RAIN IS SC.  WITH TIME...THE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL JET CROSSING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. DRY AIR SHOULD
ALSO KEEP PRECIP SPOTTY INITIALLY...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 40-50KT FROM THE PIEDMONT NORTH INTO VA
AFTER 09Z...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN AND QPF TO INCREASE MORE
TOWARD THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  MOISTURE NEVER REALLY REACHES ABOVE
-6 TO -8C...SO WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET ARE POSSIBLE...FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE. MODEL QPF RANGES A TENTH OF AN
INCH THROUGH 18Z ON THE ECMWF TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON THE
NAM.  THE GFS IS OVERDONE UPSTREAM OVER GEORGIA...SO HAVE DISCOUNTED
IT FOR NOW.  AS YOU GO EAST...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP IS
MUCH LOWER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IS SHALLOWER...AND BY THE TIME BETTER
PRECIP SPREADS EAST TOMORROW...WARMING SHOULD ALLOW TEAMS AND
WETBULB VALUES TO RISE ABOVE 32 BY MID-MORNING.  THE MAIN CONCERN
AND CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING IS IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE INCREASING QPF MAY OVERLAP WITH SUB-
FREEZING TEMPS FOR A LONGER PERIOD THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING.  GENERALLY STILL EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE AT MOST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...BUT SOME AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT COULD SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH AS WELL.

GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE MODEL PERFORMANCE AND CONSISTENCY WITH THIS
EVENT SO FAR...CONFIDENCE IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS BEST
ONLY IN THE WEST AND MUCH LOWER IN THE EAST.  HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND
THE ADVISORY TO COVER ALL OF CENTRAL NC...AND WILL MESH THE NEW
AREAS WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SEGMENTS...ENDING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF CENTRAL NC AND AND MID LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH WILL BOTH QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER... THE LINGERING COLD DRY SURFACE AIR
DEPOSITED BY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR AN INSITU
CAD EVENT ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT... POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. WARM MOIST AIR
WILL INCREASING IN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THIS
AND THE LINGERING COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WE SHOULD SEE SOME
ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN PRECIP DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30
NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE LIGHT PRECIP IN
AFTER SURFACE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE ENOUGH TO AVOID AND
NUISANCE FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER... HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND GREATLY AFFECTED BY THE CAD AIRMASS. MAV STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO WARM FOR TUESDAY... WITH THE RAW GFS
TEMPS CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE VALUES. FOR NOW WILL LOWER TEMPS
FURTHER... AND THIS MAY NOT EVEN BE FAR ENOUGH. WILL WO WITH HIGH
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT... BEFORE SLOWLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME PARALLE WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES MORE OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH... WHICH
APPEARS TO PHASE SOME THE THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM... RESULTING IN A DEEP FETCH OF SOUTHWESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW... ALONG WITH SEVERAL SURFACE LOWS TRACKING ALONG THE
FRONT FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT... MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY MID-MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE THURSDAY (WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP...
POSSIBLY SOME HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN). IN ADDITION... MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH SURGING THE STRONG/DEEP COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR... WE COULD POSSIBLE SEE SOME
WINTRY P-TYPES ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER... GIVEN WE ARE STILL TALKING
ABOUT DAY 5 IN THE FORECAST AND WE ARE NOW IN THE MONTH OF MARCH...
WILL WAIT TO ADD ANY NON-LIQUID P-TYPE TO THE FORECAST. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER...  THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN MAY REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS... WE COULD
CONCEIVABLY SEE SOME PRECIP IF ONE SUCH SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL INCLUDE SOME DECENT SWINGS...
WITH HIGHS TEMPS WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S... THURSDAY 40S AND
50S (MAYBE COLDER)... WITH FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH MAYBE SOME
30S EVEN). WE WILL SEE SOME MODERATING BY SATURDAY... GENERALLY BACK
INTO THE 50S... GIVEN WE REAMIN DRY. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PATTERN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...  ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE
IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE... OUTSIDE OF *MAYBE* A
BRIEF PERIOD AS THE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

BY 12Z...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW END MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...AND
EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. BETWEEN 12Z-
15Z...THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN. IN ADDITION...A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI.

THE FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW PIEDMONT WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A COLD
RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF BY SUNSET...WIDESPREAD FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. WEST-NW FLOW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS...LEADING TO A SCOURING OF THE
MURKY NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS. EXPECT IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ042-077-
078-083>086-088-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ008>011-024>028-040-041-043-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST TODAY FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...SMITH/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010827
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
326 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

STRONG 1043MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA HAS SUPPLIED A VERY
DRY AIRMASS FOR CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
TEENS.  MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE AIRMASS A BIT...WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF BEING TO COLD THIS EVENING...BUT THE WETBULB FREEZING LINE
IS SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH TO THE NC/SC BORDER.  EARLY ON... RADAR
RETURNS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC AND APPEAR TO
BE INITIALLY DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION UP NEAR 700MB.  DRIER AIR
BELOW HAS KEPT THE PRECIP SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT
RAIN IS SC.  WITH TIME...THE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL JET CROSSING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. DRY AIR SHOULD
ALSO KEEP PRECIP SPOTTY INITIALLY...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 40-50KT FROM THE PIEDMONT NORTH INTO VA
AFTER 09Z...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN AND QPF TO INCREASE MORE
TOWARD THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  MOISTURE NEVER REALLY REACHES ABOVE
-6 TO -8C...SO WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET ARE POSSIBLE...FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE. MODEL QPF RANGES A TENTH OF AN
INCH THROUGH 18Z ON THE ECMWF TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON THE
NAM.  THE GFS IS OVERDONE UPSTREAM OVER GEORGIA...SO HAVE DISCOUNTED
IT FOR NOW.  AS YOU GO EAST...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP IS
MUCH LOWER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IS SHALLOWER...AND BY THE TIME BETTER
PRECIP SPREADS EAST TOMORROW...WARMING SHOULD ALLOW TEAMS AND
WETBULB VALUES TO RISE ABOVE 32 BY MID-MORNING.  THE MAIN CONCERN
AND CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING IS IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE INCREASING QPF MAY OVERLAP WITH SUB-
FREEZING TEMPS FOR A LONGER PERIOD THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING.  GENERALLY STILL EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE AT MOST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...BUT SOME AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT COULD SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH AS WELL.

GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE MODEL PERFORMANCE AND CONSISTENCY WITH THIS
EVENT SO FAR...CONFIDENCE IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS BEST
ONLY IN THE WEST AND MUCH LOWER IN THE EAST.  HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND
THE ADVISORY TO COVER ALL OF CENTRAL NC...AND WILL MESH THE NEW
AREAS WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SEGMENTS...ENDING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF CENTRAL NC AND AND MID LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH WILL BOTH QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER... THE LINGERING COLD DRY SURFACE AIR
DEPOSITED BY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR AN INSITU
CAD EVENT ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT... POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. WARM MOIST AIR
WILL INCREASING IN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THIS
AND THE LINGERING COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WE SHOULD SEE SOME
ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN PRECIP DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30
NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE LIGHT PRECIP IN
AFTER SURFACE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE ENOUGH TO AVOID AND
NUISANCE FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER... HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND GREATLY AFFECTED BY THE CAD AIRMASS. MAV STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO WARM FOR TUESDAY... WITH THE RAW GFS
TEMPS CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE VALUES. FOR NOW WILL LOWER TEMPS
FURTHER... AND THIS MAY NOT EVEN BE FAR ENOUGH. WILL WO WITH HIGH
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT... BEFORE SLOWLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME PARALLE WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES MORE OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH... WHICH
APPEARS TO PHASE SOME THE THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM... RESULTING IN A DEEP FETCH OF SOUTHWESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW... ALONG WITH SEVERAL SURFACE LOWS TRACKING ALONG THE
FRONT FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT... MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY MID-MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE THURSDAY (WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP...
POSSIBLY SOME HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN). IN ADDITION... MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH SURGING THE STRONG/DEEP COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR... WE COULD POSSIBLE SEE SOME
WINTRY P-TYPES ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER... GIVEN WE ARE STILL TALKING
ABOUT DAY 5 IN THE FORECAST AND WE ARE NOW IN THE MONTH OF MARCH...
WILL WAIT TO ADD ANY NON-LIQUID P-TYPE TO THE FORECAST. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER...  THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN MAY REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS... WE COULD
CONCEIVABLY SEE SOME PRECIP IF ONE SUCH SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL INCLUDE SOME DECENT SWINGS...
WITH HIGHS TEMPS WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S... THURSDAY 40S AND
50S (MAYBE COLDER)... WITH FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH MAYBE SOME
30S EVEN). WE WILL SEE SOME MODERATING BY SATURDAY... GENERALLY BACK
INTO THE 50S... GIVEN WE REAMIN DRY. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PATTERN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...  ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE
IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE... OUTSIDE OF *MAYBE* A
BRIEF PERIOD AS THE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

BY 12Z...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW END MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...AND
EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. BETWEEN 12Z-
15Z...THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN. IN ADDITION...A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI.

THE FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW PIEDMONT WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A COLD
RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF BY SUNSET...WIDESPREAD FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. WEST-NW FLOW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS...LEADING TO A SCOURING OF THE
MURKY NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS. EXPECT IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ042-077-
078-083>086-088-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ008>011-024>028-040-041-043-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST TODAY FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...SMITH/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010827
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
326 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

STRONG 1043MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA HAS SUPPLIED A VERY
DRY AIRMASS FOR CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
TEENS.  MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE AIRMASS A BIT...WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF BEING TO COLD THIS EVENING...BUT THE WETBULB FREEZING LINE
IS SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH TO THE NC/SC BORDER.  EARLY ON... RADAR
RETURNS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC AND APPEAR TO
BE INITIALLY DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION UP NEAR 700MB.  DRIER AIR
BELOW HAS KEPT THE PRECIP SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT
RAIN IS SC.  WITH TIME...THE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL JET CROSSING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. DRY AIR SHOULD
ALSO KEEP PRECIP SPOTTY INITIALLY...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 40-50KT FROM THE PIEDMONT NORTH INTO VA
AFTER 09Z...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN AND QPF TO INCREASE MORE
TOWARD THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  MOISTURE NEVER REALLY REACHES ABOVE
-6 TO -8C...SO WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET ARE POSSIBLE...FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE. MODEL QPF RANGES A TENTH OF AN
INCH THROUGH 18Z ON THE ECMWF TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON THE
NAM.  THE GFS IS OVERDONE UPSTREAM OVER GEORGIA...SO HAVE DISCOUNTED
IT FOR NOW.  AS YOU GO EAST...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP IS
MUCH LOWER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IS SHALLOWER...AND BY THE TIME BETTER
PRECIP SPREADS EAST TOMORROW...WARMING SHOULD ALLOW TEAMS AND
WETBULB VALUES TO RISE ABOVE 32 BY MID-MORNING.  THE MAIN CONCERN
AND CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING IS IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE INCREASING QPF MAY OVERLAP WITH SUB-
FREEZING TEMPS FOR A LONGER PERIOD THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING.  GENERALLY STILL EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE AT MOST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...BUT SOME AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT COULD SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH AS WELL.

GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE MODEL PERFORMANCE AND CONSISTENCY WITH THIS
EVENT SO FAR...CONFIDENCE IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS BEST
ONLY IN THE WEST AND MUCH LOWER IN THE EAST.  HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND
THE ADVISORY TO COVER ALL OF CENTRAL NC...AND WILL MESH THE NEW
AREAS WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SEGMENTS...ENDING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF CENTRAL NC AND AND MID LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH WILL BOTH QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER... THE LINGERING COLD DRY SURFACE AIR
DEPOSITED BY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR AN INSITU
CAD EVENT ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT... POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. WARM MOIST AIR
WILL INCREASING IN SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THIS
AND THE LINGERING COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WE SHOULD SEE SOME
ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN PRECIP DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30
NORTH TO NEAR 40 SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE LIGHT PRECIP IN
AFTER SURFACE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE ENOUGH TO AVOID AND
NUISANCE FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER... HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND GREATLY AFFECTED BY THE CAD AIRMASS. MAV STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE WAY TOO WARM FOR TUESDAY... WITH THE RAW GFS
TEMPS CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE VALUES. FOR NOW WILL LOWER TEMPS
FURTHER... AND THIS MAY NOT EVEN BE FAR ENOUGH. WILL WO WITH HIGH
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT... BEFORE SLOWLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME PARALLE WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES MORE OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH... WHICH
APPEARS TO PHASE SOME THE THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM... RESULTING IN A DEEP FETCH OF SOUTHWESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW... ALONG WITH SEVERAL SURFACE LOWS TRACKING ALONG THE
FRONT FROM TIME TO TIME. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT... MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY MID-MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE THURSDAY (WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP...
POSSIBLY SOME HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN). IN ADDITION... MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH SURGING THE STRONG/DEEP COLD LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR... WE COULD POSSIBLE SEE SOME
WINTRY P-TYPES ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER... GIVEN WE ARE STILL TALKING
ABOUT DAY 5 IN THE FORECAST AND WE ARE NOW IN THE MONTH OF MARCH...
WILL WAIT TO ADD ANY NON-LIQUID P-TYPE TO THE FORECAST. DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER...  THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN MAY REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND TRACK ALONG THE FRONT... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS... WE COULD
CONCEIVABLY SEE SOME PRECIP IF ONE SUCH SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL INCLUDE SOME DECENT SWINGS...
WITH HIGHS TEMPS WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S... THURSDAY 40S AND
50S (MAYBE COLDER)... WITH FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH MAYBE SOME
30S EVEN). WE WILL SEE SOME MODERATING BY SATURDAY... GENERALLY BACK
INTO THE 50S... GIVEN WE REAMIN DRY. LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PATTERN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...  ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE
IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE... OUTSIDE OF *MAYBE* A
BRIEF PERIOD AS THE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

BY 12Z...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW END MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...AND
EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. BETWEEN 12Z-
15Z...THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN. IN ADDITION...A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI.

THE FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW PIEDMONT WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A COLD
RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF BY SUNSET...WIDESPREAD FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. WEST-NW FLOW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS...LEADING TO A SCOURING OF THE
MURKY NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS. EXPECT IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ042-077-
078-083>086-088-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ008>011-024>028-040-041-043-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST TODAY FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...SMITH/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010602
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
100 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

STRONG 1043MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA HAS SUPPLIED A VERY
DRY AIRMASS FOR CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
TEENS.  MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE AIRMASS A BIT...WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF BEING TO COLD THIS EVENING...BUT THE WETBULB FREEZING LINE
IS SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH TO THE NC/SC BORDER.  EARLY ON... RADAR
RETURNS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC AND APPEAR TO
BE INITIALLY DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION UP NEAR 700MB.  DRIER AIR
BELOW HAS KEPT THE PRECIP SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT
RAIN IS SC.  WITH TIME...THE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL JET CROSSING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. DRY AIR SHOULD
ALSO KEEP PRECIP SPOTTY INITIALLY...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 40-50KT FROM THE PIEDMONT NORTH INTO VA
AFTER 09Z...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN AND QPF TO INCREASE MORE
TOWARD THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  MOISTURE NEVER REALLY REACHES ABOVE
-6 TO -8C...SO WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET ARE POSSIBLE...FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE. MODEL QPF RANGES A TENTH OF AN
INCH THROUGH 18Z ON THE ECMWF TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON THE
NAM.  THE GFS IS OVERDONE UPSTREAM OVER GEORGIA...SO HAVE DISCOUNTED
IT FOR NOW.  AS YOU GO EAST...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP IS
MUCH LOWER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IS SHALLOWER...AND BY THE TIME BETTER
PRECIP SPREADS EAST TOMORROW...WARMING SHOULD ALLOW TEAMS AND
WETBULB VALUES TO RISE ABOVE 32 BY MID-MORNING.  THE MAIN CONCERN
AND CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING IS IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE INCREASING QPF MAY OVERLAP WITH SUB-
FREEZING TEMPS FOR A LONGER PERIOD THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING.  GENERALLY STILL EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE AT MOST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...BUT SOME AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT COULD SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH AS WELL.

GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE MODEL PERFORMANCE AND CONSISTENCY WITH THIS
EVENT SO FAR...CONFIDENCE IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS BEST
ONLY IN THE WEST AND MUCH LOWER IN THE EAST.  HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND
THE ADVISORY TO COVER ALL OF CENTRAL NC...AND WILL MESH THE NEW
AREAS WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SEGMENTS...ENDING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLORADO LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON MONDAY
WILL BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT...
SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT DEVELOPS WILL EXTEND FROM APPROX THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE TUESDAY.

ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE CAD WEDGE THAT SET UP MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AND THE WARM FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO IT...SO CURRENTLY INDICATE
THE WEDGE STICKING AROUND A BIT LONGER...WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...AS ANY CHANGES TO THE
WEDGE EROSION AND TIMING/POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT RETREATS
NORTHWARD WILL HIGHLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL HOWEVER
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. SHOULD THE WEDGE BE
LOCKED IN LONGER OR ERODE EARLIER CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS WOULD BE
WAY OFF. TEMPS: LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAYS...INCREASING TO
LOW 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE ON WEDNESDAY. A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW TO LOW
50S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

PRECIPITATION: SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD FALL INTO THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY
AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH ADVECTS IN OVER THE COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ACT TO THEN LOCK THE WEDGE IN
LONGER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL REMAINS LARGELY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER CASE
OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP...AND FOR NOW EXPECT ALL PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...BUT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THAT PERIOD APPROACHES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FRIDAY...INCREASING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

BY 12Z...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW END MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...AND
EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. BETWEEN 12Z-
15Z...THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN. IN ADDITION...A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI.

THE FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW PIEDMONT WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A COLD
RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF BY SUNSET...WIDESPREAD FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. WEST-NW FLOW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS...LEADING TO A SCOURING OF THE
MURKY NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS. EXPECT IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ042-077-
078-083>086-088-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ008>011-024>028-040-041-043-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST TODAY FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...SMITH/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010602
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
100 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

STRONG 1043MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA HAS SUPPLIED A VERY
DRY AIRMASS FOR CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
TEENS.  MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE AIRMASS A BIT...WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF BEING TO COLD THIS EVENING...BUT THE WETBULB FREEZING LINE
IS SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH TO THE NC/SC BORDER.  EARLY ON... RADAR
RETURNS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC AND APPEAR TO
BE INITIALLY DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION UP NEAR 700MB.  DRIER AIR
BELOW HAS KEPT THE PRECIP SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT
RAIN IS SC.  WITH TIME...THE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL JET CROSSING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. DRY AIR SHOULD
ALSO KEEP PRECIP SPOTTY INITIALLY...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 40-50KT FROM THE PIEDMONT NORTH INTO VA
AFTER 09Z...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN AND QPF TO INCREASE MORE
TOWARD THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  MOISTURE NEVER REALLY REACHES ABOVE
-6 TO -8C...SO WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET ARE POSSIBLE...FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE. MODEL QPF RANGES A TENTH OF AN
INCH THROUGH 18Z ON THE ECMWF TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON THE
NAM.  THE GFS IS OVERDONE UPSTREAM OVER GEORGIA...SO HAVE DISCOUNTED
IT FOR NOW.  AS YOU GO EAST...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP IS
MUCH LOWER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IS SHALLOWER...AND BY THE TIME BETTER
PRECIP SPREADS EAST TOMORROW...WARMING SHOULD ALLOW TEAMS AND
WETBULB VALUES TO RISE ABOVE 32 BY MID-MORNING.  THE MAIN CONCERN
AND CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING IS IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE INCREASING QPF MAY OVERLAP WITH SUB-
FREEZING TEMPS FOR A LONGER PERIOD THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING.  GENERALLY STILL EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE AT MOST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...BUT SOME AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT COULD SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH AS WELL.

GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE MODEL PERFORMANCE AND CONSISTENCY WITH THIS
EVENT SO FAR...CONFIDENCE IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS BEST
ONLY IN THE WEST AND MUCH LOWER IN THE EAST.  HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND
THE ADVISORY TO COVER ALL OF CENTRAL NC...AND WILL MESH THE NEW
AREAS WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SEGMENTS...ENDING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLORADO LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON MONDAY
WILL BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT...
SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT DEVELOPS WILL EXTEND FROM APPROX THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE TUESDAY.

ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE CAD WEDGE THAT SET UP MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AND THE WARM FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO IT...SO CURRENTLY INDICATE
THE WEDGE STICKING AROUND A BIT LONGER...WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...AS ANY CHANGES TO THE
WEDGE EROSION AND TIMING/POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT RETREATS
NORTHWARD WILL HIGHLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL HOWEVER
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. SHOULD THE WEDGE BE
LOCKED IN LONGER OR ERODE EARLIER CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS WOULD BE
WAY OFF. TEMPS: LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAYS...INCREASING TO
LOW 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE ON WEDNESDAY. A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW TO LOW
50S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

PRECIPITATION: SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD FALL INTO THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY
AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH ADVECTS IN OVER THE COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ACT TO THEN LOCK THE WEDGE IN
LONGER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL REMAINS LARGELY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER CASE
OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP...AND FOR NOW EXPECT ALL PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...BUT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THAT PERIOD APPROACHES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FRIDAY...INCREASING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

BY 12Z...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW END MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...AND
EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. BETWEEN 12Z-
15Z...THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN. IN ADDITION...A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI.

THE FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW PIEDMONT WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A COLD
RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF BY SUNSET...WIDESPREAD FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. WEST-NW FLOW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS...LEADING TO A SCOURING OF THE
MURKY NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS. EXPECT IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ042-077-
078-083>086-088-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ008>011-024>028-040-041-043-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST TODAY FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...SMITH/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010602
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
100 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

STRONG 1043MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA HAS SUPPLIED A VERY
DRY AIRMASS FOR CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
TEENS.  MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE AIRMASS A BIT...WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF BEING TO COLD THIS EVENING...BUT THE WETBULB FREEZING LINE
IS SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH TO THE NC/SC BORDER.  EARLY ON... RADAR
RETURNS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC AND APPEAR TO
BE INITIALLY DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION UP NEAR 700MB.  DRIER AIR
BELOW HAS KEPT THE PRECIP SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT
RAIN IS SC.  WITH TIME...THE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL JET CROSSING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. DRY AIR SHOULD
ALSO KEEP PRECIP SPOTTY INITIALLY...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 40-50KT FROM THE PIEDMONT NORTH INTO VA
AFTER 09Z...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN AND QPF TO INCREASE MORE
TOWARD THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  MOISTURE NEVER REALLY REACHES ABOVE
-6 TO -8C...SO WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET ARE POSSIBLE...FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE. MODEL QPF RANGES A TENTH OF AN
INCH THROUGH 18Z ON THE ECMWF TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON THE
NAM.  THE GFS IS OVERDONE UPSTREAM OVER GEORGIA...SO HAVE DISCOUNTED
IT FOR NOW.  AS YOU GO EAST...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP IS
MUCH LOWER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IS SHALLOWER...AND BY THE TIME BETTER
PRECIP SPREADS EAST TOMORROW...WARMING SHOULD ALLOW TEAMS AND
WETBULB VALUES TO RISE ABOVE 32 BY MID-MORNING.  THE MAIN CONCERN
AND CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING IS IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE INCREASING QPF MAY OVERLAP WITH SUB-
FREEZING TEMPS FOR A LONGER PERIOD THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING.  GENERALLY STILL EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE AT MOST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...BUT SOME AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT COULD SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH AS WELL.

GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE MODEL PERFORMANCE AND CONSISTENCY WITH THIS
EVENT SO FAR...CONFIDENCE IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS BEST
ONLY IN THE WEST AND MUCH LOWER IN THE EAST.  HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND
THE ADVISORY TO COVER ALL OF CENTRAL NC...AND WILL MESH THE NEW
AREAS WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SEGMENTS...ENDING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLORADO LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON MONDAY
WILL BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT...
SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT DEVELOPS WILL EXTEND FROM APPROX THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE TUESDAY.

ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE CAD WEDGE THAT SET UP MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AND THE WARM FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO IT...SO CURRENTLY INDICATE
THE WEDGE STICKING AROUND A BIT LONGER...WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...AS ANY CHANGES TO THE
WEDGE EROSION AND TIMING/POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT RETREATS
NORTHWARD WILL HIGHLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL HOWEVER
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. SHOULD THE WEDGE BE
LOCKED IN LONGER OR ERODE EARLIER CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS WOULD BE
WAY OFF. TEMPS: LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAYS...INCREASING TO
LOW 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE ON WEDNESDAY. A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW TO LOW
50S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

PRECIPITATION: SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD FALL INTO THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY
AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH ADVECTS IN OVER THE COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ACT TO THEN LOCK THE WEDGE IN
LONGER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL REMAINS LARGELY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER CASE
OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP...AND FOR NOW EXPECT ALL PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...BUT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THAT PERIOD APPROACHES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FRIDAY...INCREASING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM SUNDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH 12Z WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN
OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

BY 12Z...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW END MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS...AND
EITHER LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. BETWEEN 12Z-
15Z...THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN. IN ADDITION...A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI.

THE FREEZING RAIN IN THE NW PIEDMONT WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A COLD
RAIN BY MID AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF BY SUNSET...WIDESPREAD FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION. WEST-NW FLOW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS...LEADING TO A SCOURING OF THE
MURKY NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS. EXPECT IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
LATE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ042-077-
078-083>086-088-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ008>011-024>028-040-041-043-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST TODAY FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...SMITH/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010410
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1110 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

     A LIGHT ICING EVENT LIKELY FOR THE NC PIEDMONT AND WRN SANDHILLS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

STRONG 1043MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA HAS SUPPLIED A VERY
DRY AIRMASS FOR CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
TEENS.  MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE AIRMASS A BIT...WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF BEING TO COLD THIS EVENING...BUT THE WETBULB FREEZING LINE
IS SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH TO THE NC/SC BORDER.  EARLY ON... RADAR
RETURNS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC AND APPEAR TO
BE INITIALLY DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION UP NEAR 700MB.  DRIER AIR
BELOW HAS KEPT THE PRECIP SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT
RAIN IS SC.  WITH TIME...THE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL JET CROSSING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. DRY AIR SHOULD
ALSO KEEP PRECIP SPOTTY INITIALLY...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 40-50KT FROM THE PIEDMONT NORTH INTO VA
AFTER 09Z...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN AND QPF TO INCREASE MORE
TOWARD THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  MOISTURE NEVER REALLY REACHES ABOVE
-6 TO -8C...SO WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET ARE POSSIBLE...FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE. MODEL QPF RANGES A TENTH OF AN
INCH THROUGH 18Z ON THE ECMWF TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON THE
NAM.  THE GFS IS OVERDONE UPSTREAM OVER GEORGIA...SO HAVE DISCOUNTED
IT FOR NOW.  AS YOU GO EAST...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP IS
MUCH LOWER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IS SHALLOWER...AND BY THE TIME BETTER
PRECIP SPREADS EAST TOMORROW...WARMING SHOULD ALLOW TEAMS AND
WETBULB VALUES TO RISE ABOVE 32 BY MID-MORNING.  THE MAIN CONCERN
AND CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING IS IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE INCREASING QPF MAY OVERLAP WITH SUB-
FREEZING TEMPS FOR A LONGER PERIOD THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING.  GENERALLY STILL EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE AT MOST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...BUT SOME AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT COULD SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH AS WELL.

GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE MODEL PERFORMANCE AND CONSISTENCY WITH THIS
EVENT SO FAR...CONFIDENCE IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS BEST
ONLY IN THE WEST AND MUCH LOWER IN THE EAST.  HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND
THE ADVISORY TO COVER ALL OF CENTRAL NC...AND WILL MESH THE NEW
AREAS WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SEGMENTS...ENDING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLORADO LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON MONDAY
WILL BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT...
SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT DEVELOPS WILL EXTEND FROM APPROX THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE TUESDAY.

ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE CAD WEDGE THAT SET UP MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AND THE WARM FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO IT...SO CURRENTLY INDICATE
THE WEDGE STICKING AROUND A BIT LONGER...WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...AS ANY CHANGES TO THE
WEDGE EROSION AND TIMING/POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT RETREATS
NORTHWARD WILL HIGHLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL HOWEVER
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. SHOULD THE WEDGE BE
LOCKED IN LONGER OR ERODE EARLIER CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS WOULD BE
WAY OFF. TEMPS: LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAYS...INCREASING TO
LOW 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE ON WEDNESDAY. A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW TO LOW
50S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

PRECIPITATION: SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD FALL INTO THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY
AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH ADVECTS IN OVER THE COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ACT TO THEN LOCK THE WEDGE IN
LONGER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL REMAINS LARGELY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER CASE
OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP...AND FOR NOW EXPECT ALL PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...BUT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THAT PERIOD APPROACHES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FRIDAY...INCREASING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 820 PM SATURDAY...

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT AND
STRENGTHENING OF GENERALLY SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND
CEILINGS...INITIALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 THOUSAND FT...WHICH WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY LOWER THROUGH MVFR-IFR RANGE TO LIFR...LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY AS RAIN AT
RWI...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION FROM FREEZING
RAIN TO RAIN ELSEWHERE...WITH SAID TRANSITION LIKELY TO NOT OCCUR
UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON AT TRIAD TAF SITES. THE STRENGTHENING AND
GRADUAL VEERING OF THE FLOW FROM SE TONIGHT TO SSW ON SUNDAY...JUST
ABOVE NE FLOW WITHIN A STABLE/COOL SURFACE LAYER...WILL RESULT IN
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THOUGH PRECIPITATION AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN
A LINGERING COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME AND ASSOCIATED SHALLOW
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH 14-17Z MON.

OUTLOOK: AFTER A RETURN TO VFR MON-MON NIGHT...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUE THROUGH THU...WITH THE RELATIVELY LOWEST AND MOST PROLONGED
CONDITIONS AT TRIAD TAF SITES...WHERE PROLONGED COLD AIR DAMMING
WILL BE MOST PROBABLE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ042-077-
078-083>086-088-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ008>011-024>028-040-041-043-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...SMITH/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...99





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010410
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1110 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

     A LIGHT ICING EVENT LIKELY FOR THE NC PIEDMONT AND WRN SANDHILLS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

STRONG 1043MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA HAS SUPPLIED A VERY
DRY AIRMASS FOR CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
TEENS.  MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE AIRMASS A BIT...WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF BEING TO COLD THIS EVENING...BUT THE WETBULB FREEZING LINE
IS SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH TO THE NC/SC BORDER.  EARLY ON... RADAR
RETURNS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC AND APPEAR TO
BE INITIALLY DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION UP NEAR 700MB.  DRIER AIR
BELOW HAS KEPT THE PRECIP SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT
RAIN IS SC.  WITH TIME...THE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL JET CROSSING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. DRY AIR SHOULD
ALSO KEEP PRECIP SPOTTY INITIALLY...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 40-50KT FROM THE PIEDMONT NORTH INTO VA
AFTER 09Z...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN AND QPF TO INCREASE MORE
TOWARD THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  MOISTURE NEVER REALLY REACHES ABOVE
-6 TO -8C...SO WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET ARE POSSIBLE...FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE. MODEL QPF RANGES A TENTH OF AN
INCH THROUGH 18Z ON THE ECMWF TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON THE
NAM.  THE GFS IS OVERDONE UPSTREAM OVER GEORGIA...SO HAVE DISCOUNTED
IT FOR NOW.  AS YOU GO EAST...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP IS
MUCH LOWER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IS SHALLOWER...AND BY THE TIME BETTER
PRECIP SPREADS EAST TOMORROW...WARMING SHOULD ALLOW TEAMS AND
WETBULB VALUES TO RISE ABOVE 32 BY MID-MORNING.  THE MAIN CONCERN
AND CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING IS IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE INCREASING QPF MAY OVERLAP WITH SUB-
FREEZING TEMPS FOR A LONGER PERIOD THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING.  GENERALLY STILL EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE AT MOST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...BUT SOME AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT COULD SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH AS WELL.

GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE MODEL PERFORMANCE AND CONSISTENCY WITH THIS
EVENT SO FAR...CONFIDENCE IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS BEST
ONLY IN THE WEST AND MUCH LOWER IN THE EAST.  HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND
THE ADVISORY TO COVER ALL OF CENTRAL NC...AND WILL MESH THE NEW
AREAS WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SEGMENTS...ENDING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLORADO LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON MONDAY
WILL BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT...
SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT DEVELOPS WILL EXTEND FROM APPROX THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE TUESDAY.

ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE CAD WEDGE THAT SET UP MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AND THE WARM FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO IT...SO CURRENTLY INDICATE
THE WEDGE STICKING AROUND A BIT LONGER...WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...AS ANY CHANGES TO THE
WEDGE EROSION AND TIMING/POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT RETREATS
NORTHWARD WILL HIGHLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL HOWEVER
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. SHOULD THE WEDGE BE
LOCKED IN LONGER OR ERODE EARLIER CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS WOULD BE
WAY OFF. TEMPS: LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAYS...INCREASING TO
LOW 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE ON WEDNESDAY. A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW TO LOW
50S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

PRECIPITATION: SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD FALL INTO THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY
AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH ADVECTS IN OVER THE COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ACT TO THEN LOCK THE WEDGE IN
LONGER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL REMAINS LARGELY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER CASE
OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP...AND FOR NOW EXPECT ALL PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...BUT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THAT PERIOD APPROACHES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FRIDAY...INCREASING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 820 PM SATURDAY...

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT AND
STRENGTHENING OF GENERALLY SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND
CEILINGS...INITIALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 THOUSAND FT...WHICH WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY LOWER THROUGH MVFR-IFR RANGE TO LIFR...LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY AS RAIN AT
RWI...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION FROM FREEZING
RAIN TO RAIN ELSEWHERE...WITH SAID TRANSITION LIKELY TO NOT OCCUR
UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON AT TRIAD TAF SITES. THE STRENGTHENING AND
GRADUAL VEERING OF THE FLOW FROM SE TONIGHT TO SSW ON SUNDAY...JUST
ABOVE NE FLOW WITHIN A STABLE/COOL SURFACE LAYER...WILL RESULT IN
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THOUGH PRECIPITATION AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN
A LINGERING COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME AND ASSOCIATED SHALLOW
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH 14-17Z MON.

OUTLOOK: AFTER A RETURN TO VFR MON-MON NIGHT...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUE THROUGH THU...WITH THE RELATIVELY LOWEST AND MOST PROLONGED
CONDITIONS AT TRIAD TAF SITES...WHERE PROLONGED COLD AIR DAMMING
WILL BE MOST PROBABLE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ042-077-
078-083>086-088-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ008>011-024>028-040-041-043-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...SMITH/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...99




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010332
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1030 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

...A LIGHT ICING EVENT LIKELY FOR THE NC PIEDMONT AND WRN SANDHILLS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

STRONG 1043MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA HAS SUPPLIED A VERY
DRY AIRMASS FOR CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
TEENS.  MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE AIRMASS A BIT...WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF BEING TO COLD THIS EVENING...BUT THE WETBULB FREEZING LINE
IS SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH TO THE NC/SC BORDER.  EARLY ON... RADAR
RETURNS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC AND APPEAR TO
BE INITIALLY DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION UP NEAR 700MB.  DRIER AIR
BELOW HAS KEPT THE PRECIP SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT
RAIN IS SC.  WITH TIME...THE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL JET CROSSING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. DRY AIR SHOULD
ALSO KEEP PRECIP SPOTTY INITIALLY...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 40-50KT FROM THE PIEDMONT NORTH INTO VA
AFTER 09Z...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN AND QPF TO INCREASE MORE
TOWARD THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  MOISTURE NEVER REALLY REACHES ABOVE
-6 TO -8C...SO WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET ARE POSSIBLE...FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE. MODEL QPF RANGES A TENTH OF AN
INCH THROUGH 18Z ON THE ECMWF TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON THE
NAM.  THE GFS IS OVERDONE UPSTREAM OVER GEORGIA...SO HAVE DISCOUNTED
IT FOR NOW.  AS YOU GO EAST...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP IS
MUCH LOWER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IS SHALLOWER...AND BY THE TIME BETTER
PRECIP SPREADS EAST TOMORROW...WARMING SHOULD ALLOW TEAMS AND
WETBULB VALUES TO RISE ABOVE 32 BY MID-MORNING.  THE MAIN CONCERN
AND CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING IS IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE INCREASING QPF MAY OVERLAP WITH SUB-
FREEZING TEMPS FOR A LONGER PERIOD THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING.  GENERALLY STILL EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE AT MOST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...BUT SOME AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT COULD SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH AS WELL.

GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE MODEL PERFORMANCE AND CONSISTENCY WITH THIS
EVENT SO FAR...CONFIDENCE IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS BEST
ONLY IN THE WEST AND MUCH LOWER IN THE EAST.  HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND
THE ADVISORY TO COVER ALL OF CENTRAL NC...AND WILL MESH THE NEW
AREAS WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SEGMENTS...ENDING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLORADO LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON MONDAY
WILL BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT...
SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT DEVELOPS WILL EXTEND FROM APPROX THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE TUESDAY.

ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE CAD WEDGE THAT SET UP MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AND THE WARM FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO IT...SO CURRENTLY INDICATE
THE WEDGE STICKING AROUND A BIT LONGER...WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...AS ANY CHANGES TO THE
WEDGE EROSION AND TIMING/POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT RETREATS
NORTHWARD WILL HIGHLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL HOWEVER
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. SHOULD THE WEDGE BE
LOCKED IN LONGER OR ERODE EARLIER CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS WOULD BE
WAY OFF. TEMPS: LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAYS...INCREASING TO
LOW 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE ON WEDNESDAY. A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW TO LOW
50S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

PRECIPITATION: SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD FALL INTO THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY
AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH ADVECTS IN OVER THE COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ACT TO THEN LOCK THE WEDGE IN
LONGER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL REMAINS LARGELY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER CASE
OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP...AND FOR NOW EXPECT ALL PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...BUT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THAT PERIOD APPROACHES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FRIDAY...INCREASING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 820 PM SATURDAY...

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT AND
STRENGTHENING OF GENERALLY SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND
CEILINGS...INITIALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 THOUSAND FT...WHICH WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY LOWER THROUGH MVFR-IFR RANGE TO LIFR...LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY AS RAIN AT
RWI...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION FROM FREEZING
RAIN TO RAIN ELSEWHERE...WITH SAID TRANSITION LIKELY TO NOT OCCUR
UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON AT TRIAD TAF SITES. THE STRENGTHENING AND
GRADUAL VEERING OF THE FLOW FROM SE TONIGHT TO SSW ON SUNDAY...JUST
ABOVE NE FLOW WITHIN A STABLE/COOL SURFACE LAYER...WILL RESULT IN
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THOUGH PRECIPITATION AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN
A LINGERING COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME AND ASSOCIATED SHALLOW
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH 14-17Z MON.

OUTLOOK: AFTER A RETURN TO VFR MON-MON NIGHT...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUE THROUGH THU...WITH THE RELATIVELY LOWEST AND MOST PROLONGED
CONDITIONS AT TRIAD TAF SITES...WHERE PROLONGED COLD AIR DAMMING
WILL BE MOST PROBABLE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ008>010-024>026-040-041-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ077-083>086-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/BLS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010332
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1030 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

...A LIGHT ICING EVENT LIKELY FOR THE NC PIEDMONT AND WRN SANDHILLS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

STRONG 1043MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA HAS SUPPLIED A VERY
DRY AIRMASS FOR CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
TEENS.  MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE AIRMASS A BIT...WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF BEING TO COLD THIS EVENING...BUT THE WETBULB FREEZING LINE
IS SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH TO THE NC/SC BORDER.  EARLY ON... RADAR
RETURNS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC AND APPEAR TO
BE INITIALLY DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION UP NEAR 700MB.  DRIER AIR
BELOW HAS KEPT THE PRECIP SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE SOME REPORTS OF LIGHT
RAIN IS SC.  WITH TIME...THE WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL JET CROSSING THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. DRY AIR SHOULD
ALSO KEEP PRECIP SPOTTY INITIALLY...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 40-50KT FROM THE PIEDMONT NORTH INTO VA
AFTER 09Z...SO EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN AND QPF TO INCREASE MORE
TOWARD THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  MOISTURE NEVER REALLY REACHES ABOVE
-6 TO -8C...SO WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET ARE POSSIBLE...FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE. MODEL QPF RANGES A TENTH OF AN
INCH THROUGH 18Z ON THE ECMWF TO UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON THE
NAM.  THE GFS IS OVERDONE UPSTREAM OVER GEORGIA...SO HAVE DISCOUNTED
IT FOR NOW.  AS YOU GO EAST...CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIP IS
MUCH LOWER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IS SHALLOWER...AND BY THE TIME BETTER
PRECIP SPREADS EAST TOMORROW...WARMING SHOULD ALLOW TEAMS AND
WETBULB VALUES TO RISE ABOVE 32 BY MID-MORNING.  THE MAIN CONCERN
AND CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THIS EVENING IS IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE INCREASING QPF MAY OVERLAP WITH SUB-
FREEZING TEMPS FOR A LONGER PERIOD THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING.  GENERALLY STILL EXPECT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE AT MOST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...BUT SOME AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT COULD SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH AS WELL.

GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE MODEL PERFORMANCE AND CONSISTENCY WITH THIS
EVENT SO FAR...CONFIDENCE IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS BEST
ONLY IN THE WEST AND MUCH LOWER IN THE EAST.  HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND
THE ADVISORY TO COVER ALL OF CENTRAL NC...AND WILL MESH THE NEW
AREAS WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SEGMENTS...ENDING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLORADO LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON MONDAY
WILL BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT...
SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT DEVELOPS WILL EXTEND FROM APPROX THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE TUESDAY.

ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE CAD WEDGE THAT SET UP MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AND THE WARM FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO IT...SO CURRENTLY INDICATE
THE WEDGE STICKING AROUND A BIT LONGER...WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...AS ANY CHANGES TO THE
WEDGE EROSION AND TIMING/POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT RETREATS
NORTHWARD WILL HIGHLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL HOWEVER
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. SHOULD THE WEDGE BE
LOCKED IN LONGER OR ERODE EARLIER CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS WOULD BE
WAY OFF. TEMPS: LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAYS...INCREASING TO
LOW 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE ON WEDNESDAY. A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW TO LOW
50S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

PRECIPITATION: SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD FALL INTO THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY
AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH ADVECTS IN OVER THE COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ACT TO THEN LOCK THE WEDGE IN
LONGER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL REMAINS LARGELY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER CASE
OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP...AND FOR NOW EXPECT ALL PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...BUT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THAT PERIOD APPROACHES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FRIDAY...INCREASING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 820 PM SATURDAY...

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT AND
STRENGTHENING OF GENERALLY SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND
CEILINGS...INITIALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 THOUSAND FT...WHICH WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY LOWER THROUGH MVFR-IFR RANGE TO LIFR...LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY AS RAIN AT
RWI...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION FROM FREEZING
RAIN TO RAIN ELSEWHERE...WITH SAID TRANSITION LIKELY TO NOT OCCUR
UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON AT TRIAD TAF SITES. THE STRENGTHENING AND
GRADUAL VEERING OF THE FLOW FROM SE TONIGHT TO SSW ON SUNDAY...JUST
ABOVE NE FLOW WITHIN A STABLE/COOL SURFACE LAYER...WILL RESULT IN
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THOUGH PRECIPITATION AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN
A LINGERING COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME AND ASSOCIATED SHALLOW
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH 14-17Z MON.

OUTLOOK: AFTER A RETURN TO VFR MON-MON NIGHT...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUE THROUGH THU...WITH THE RELATIVELY LOWEST AND MOST PROLONGED
CONDITIONS AT TRIAD TAF SITES...WHERE PROLONGED COLD AIR DAMMING
WILL BE MOST PROBABLE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ008>010-024>026-040-041-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ077-083>086-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/BLS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010122
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
822 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

...LIGHT ICING EVENT LIKELY FOR THE NC PIEDMONT AND WRN
SANDHILLS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

OVERVIEW: WINTER IS MOST CERTAINLY NOT OVER YET. MORE WINTRY
PRECIP... DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY INCREASING MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ATOP THE COLD WEDGING SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR NE... APPEARS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND ENTER SOUTH-CENTRAL NC LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE PIEDMONT ON SUNDAY.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN: WE`LL MAINTAIN A FAST MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE WSW
(TRENDING TO BE FROM THE WEST) OVER NC. AT THE SURFACE... THE PARENT
HIGH PROVIDING THE CHILLY AIR WILL SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST
LATE TONIGHT... ALLOWING THE INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE SE COAST AND
COASTAL NC TO SHARPEN. THIS WILL CULMINATE IN A RESIDUAL STABLE COLD
POOL (AND MESOHIGH) OVER THE FAR WRN PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS OF NC/SC
LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. AT 850 MB... A WEAK WAVE WILL TRACK FROM
NRN FL TO THE NORTH... RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING FLOW JUST ALOFT
AND AN INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE IN CENTRAL NC THERMAL
PROFILES. THIS WAVE WILL TRACK TO OUR NE SUN EVENING/SUN NIGHT...
LEADING TO AN EVENTUAL END TO PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST.

PRECIP TIMING AND AMOUNTS: HAVE MAINLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION WRF-NMM/WRF-ARW... THE HRRR... AND DOWNSCALED NAM QPF AND
TIMING. EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE SRN PIEDMONT AND
SANDHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... WITH LOW COVERAGE AND JUST TRACE
AMOUNTS. THEN AS THE MOIST UPGLIDE DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS... EXPECT
PRECIP TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 50-60% COVERAGE (AND THIS MAY NEED TO
BE RAISED IF LATER MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT) OVER THE PIEDMONT
SUNDAY MORNING... SPREADING EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON... BEFORE ENDING WEST TO EAST SUN NIGHT. MODELS DEPICT A
FAIRLY LIGHT QPF... ESPECIALLY INITIALLY OVER THE SANDHILLS UP
THROUGH THE EASTERN PIEDMONT WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR DRY
POCKETS ALOFT. THIS IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE LIFT. EXPECT TOTAL QPF GENERALLY FROM 0.25 TO 0.40...
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE SE CWA TRENDING TO THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE NW CWA.

PRECIP TYPE: FOLLOWING THE TOP-DOWN PTYPE METHODOLOGY... EXPECT ANY
INITIAL PRECIP TO BE SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE (DUE TO
SOMEWHAT DRY AIR ALOFT LIMITING ICE IN THE CLOUD)... TRENDING TO
MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER NRN/WRN CWA. THE ENCROACHING WARMER
SURFACE AIR (AS THE COLD DOME THINS ON THE EDGES) WILL RESULT IN AN
HOUR-BY-HOUR TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN FROM SE TO NW... WITH THE
FREEZING RAIN THREAT LAST DEPARTING FROM THE TRIAD/ROXBORO AREAS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WET BULBS THERE RISE TO AROUND FREEZING. AS
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE RETREATING NE AWAY FROM THE AREA... IT WILL
SLOWLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA AND CEASE TO PROVIDE A STEADY
SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT MIGHT ENSURE CONTINUED GLAZE BUILD-
UP. SO WITH TIME... LATENT HEAT RELEASE WILL SERVE TO LIMIT ICE
ACCRUAL... SUCH THAT SOME OF THE QPF IN THE LATTER HOURS OF THE
EVENT WILL SIMPLY RUN OFF. THAT SAID HOWEVER... BASED ON FORECAST
SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS... IT APPEARS THAT THERE
WILL BE A DEEP ENOUGH SURFACE COLD LAYER TO SUPPORT A LIGHT GLAZING
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA... WITH THE GREATER
AMOUNTS (PERHAPS AT OR JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH) OVER THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED NW CWA.

TEMPERATURES: READINGS WILL FOLLOW AN ATYPICAL TREND THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT OF 23-33... HIGHS SUNDAY OF 32-39 WEST OF
I-95 AND MAINLY 40S EAST OF I-95... AND LOWS SUN NIGHT 32-44...
ALTHOUGH TEMPS SUN EVENING/NIGHT SHOULD BE STEADY OR PERHAPS RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS THE RESIDUAL COOL POOL STARTS TO MIX
OUT IN THE FACE OF INCREASING WSW FLOW ALOFT LATE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLORADO LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON MONDAY
WILL BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT...
SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT DEVELOPS WILL EXTEND FROM APPROX THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE TUESDAY.

ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE CAD WEDGE THAT SET UP MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AND THE WARM FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO IT...SO CURRENTLY INDICATE
THE WEDGE STICKING AROUND A BIT LONGER...WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...AS ANY CHANGES TO THE
WEDGE EROSION AND TIMING/POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT RETREATS
NORTHWARD WILL HIGHLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL HOWEVER
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. SHOULD THE WEDGE BE
LOCKED IN LONGER OR ERODE EARLIER CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS WOULD BE
WAY OFF. TEMPS: LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAYS...INCREASING TO
LOW 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE ON WEDNESDAY. A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW TO LOW
50S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

PRECIPITATION: SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD FALL INTO THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY
AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH ADVECTS IN OVER THE COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ACT TO THEN LOCK THE WEDGE IN
LONGER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL REMAINS LARGELY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER CASE
OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP...AND FOR NOW EXPECT ALL PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...BUT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THAT PERIOD APPROACHES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FRIDAY...INCREASING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 820 PM SATURDAY...

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT AND
STRENGTHENING OF GENERALLY SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND
CEILINGS...INITIALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 THOUSAND FT...WHICH WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY LOWER THROUGH MVFR-IFR RANGE TO LIFR...LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY AS RAIN AT
RWI...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION FROM FREEZING
RAIN TO RAIN ELSEWHERE...WITH SAID TRANSITION LIKELY TO NOT OCCUR
UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON AT TRIAD TAF SITES. THE STRENGTHENING AND
GRADUAL VEERING OF THE FLOW FROM SE TONIGHT TO SSW ON SUNDAY...JUST
ABOVE NE FLOW WITHIN A STABLE/COOL SURFACE LAYER...WILL RESULT IN
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THOUGH PRECIPITATION AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN
A LINGERING COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME AND ASSOCIATED SHALLOW
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH 14-17Z MON.

OUTLOOK: AFTER A RETURN TO VFR MON-MON NIGHT...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUE THROUGH THU...WITH THE RELATIVELY LOWEST AND MOST PROLONGED
CONDITIONS AT TRIAD TAF SITES...WHERE PROLONGED COLD AIR DAMMING
WILL BE MOST PROBABLE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ008>010-024>026-040-041-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ077-083>086-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010122
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
822 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

...LIGHT ICING EVENT LIKELY FOR THE NC PIEDMONT AND WRN
SANDHILLS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

OVERVIEW: WINTER IS MOST CERTAINLY NOT OVER YET. MORE WINTRY
PRECIP... DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY INCREASING MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ATOP THE COLD WEDGING SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR NE... APPEARS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND ENTER SOUTH-CENTRAL NC LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE PIEDMONT ON SUNDAY.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN: WE`LL MAINTAIN A FAST MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE WSW
(TRENDING TO BE FROM THE WEST) OVER NC. AT THE SURFACE... THE PARENT
HIGH PROVIDING THE CHILLY AIR WILL SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST
LATE TONIGHT... ALLOWING THE INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE SE COAST AND
COASTAL NC TO SHARPEN. THIS WILL CULMINATE IN A RESIDUAL STABLE COLD
POOL (AND MESOHIGH) OVER THE FAR WRN PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS OF NC/SC
LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. AT 850 MB... A WEAK WAVE WILL TRACK FROM
NRN FL TO THE NORTH... RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING FLOW JUST ALOFT
AND AN INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE IN CENTRAL NC THERMAL
PROFILES. THIS WAVE WILL TRACK TO OUR NE SUN EVENING/SUN NIGHT...
LEADING TO AN EVENTUAL END TO PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST.

PRECIP TIMING AND AMOUNTS: HAVE MAINLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION WRF-NMM/WRF-ARW... THE HRRR... AND DOWNSCALED NAM QPF AND
TIMING. EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE SRN PIEDMONT AND
SANDHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... WITH LOW COVERAGE AND JUST TRACE
AMOUNTS. THEN AS THE MOIST UPGLIDE DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS... EXPECT
PRECIP TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 50-60% COVERAGE (AND THIS MAY NEED TO
BE RAISED IF LATER MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT) OVER THE PIEDMONT
SUNDAY MORNING... SPREADING EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON... BEFORE ENDING WEST TO EAST SUN NIGHT. MODELS DEPICT A
FAIRLY LIGHT QPF... ESPECIALLY INITIALLY OVER THE SANDHILLS UP
THROUGH THE EASTERN PIEDMONT WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR DRY
POCKETS ALOFT. THIS IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE LIFT. EXPECT TOTAL QPF GENERALLY FROM 0.25 TO 0.40...
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE SE CWA TRENDING TO THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE NW CWA.

PRECIP TYPE: FOLLOWING THE TOP-DOWN PTYPE METHODOLOGY... EXPECT ANY
INITIAL PRECIP TO BE SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE (DUE TO
SOMEWHAT DRY AIR ALOFT LIMITING ICE IN THE CLOUD)... TRENDING TO
MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER NRN/WRN CWA. THE ENCROACHING WARMER
SURFACE AIR (AS THE COLD DOME THINS ON THE EDGES) WILL RESULT IN AN
HOUR-BY-HOUR TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN FROM SE TO NW... WITH THE
FREEZING RAIN THREAT LAST DEPARTING FROM THE TRIAD/ROXBORO AREAS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WET BULBS THERE RISE TO AROUND FREEZING. AS
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE RETREATING NE AWAY FROM THE AREA... IT WILL
SLOWLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA AND CEASE TO PROVIDE A STEADY
SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT MIGHT ENSURE CONTINUED GLAZE BUILD-
UP. SO WITH TIME... LATENT HEAT RELEASE WILL SERVE TO LIMIT ICE
ACCRUAL... SUCH THAT SOME OF THE QPF IN THE LATTER HOURS OF THE
EVENT WILL SIMPLY RUN OFF. THAT SAID HOWEVER... BASED ON FORECAST
SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS... IT APPEARS THAT THERE
WILL BE A DEEP ENOUGH SURFACE COLD LAYER TO SUPPORT A LIGHT GLAZING
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA... WITH THE GREATER
AMOUNTS (PERHAPS AT OR JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH) OVER THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED NW CWA.

TEMPERATURES: READINGS WILL FOLLOW AN ATYPICAL TREND THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT OF 23-33... HIGHS SUNDAY OF 32-39 WEST OF
I-95 AND MAINLY 40S EAST OF I-95... AND LOWS SUN NIGHT 32-44...
ALTHOUGH TEMPS SUN EVENING/NIGHT SHOULD BE STEADY OR PERHAPS RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS THE RESIDUAL COOL POOL STARTS TO MIX
OUT IN THE FACE OF INCREASING WSW FLOW ALOFT LATE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLORADO LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON MONDAY
WILL BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT...
SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT DEVELOPS WILL EXTEND FROM APPROX THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE TUESDAY.

ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE CAD WEDGE THAT SET UP MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AND THE WARM FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO IT...SO CURRENTLY INDICATE
THE WEDGE STICKING AROUND A BIT LONGER...WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...AS ANY CHANGES TO THE
WEDGE EROSION AND TIMING/POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT RETREATS
NORTHWARD WILL HIGHLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL HOWEVER
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. SHOULD THE WEDGE BE
LOCKED IN LONGER OR ERODE EARLIER CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS WOULD BE
WAY OFF. TEMPS: LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAYS...INCREASING TO
LOW 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE ON WEDNESDAY. A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW TO LOW
50S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

PRECIPITATION: SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD FALL INTO THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY
AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH ADVECTS IN OVER THE COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ACT TO THEN LOCK THE WEDGE IN
LONGER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL REMAINS LARGELY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER CASE
OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP...AND FOR NOW EXPECT ALL PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...BUT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THAT PERIOD APPROACHES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FRIDAY...INCREASING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 820 PM SATURDAY...

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODIFIED ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT AND
STRENGTHENING OF GENERALLY SE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND
CEILINGS...INITIALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 5 THOUSAND FT...WHICH WILL
SUBSEQUENTLY LOWER THROUGH MVFR-IFR RANGE TO LIFR...LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MOSTLY AS RAIN AT
RWI...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION FROM FREEZING
RAIN TO RAIN ELSEWHERE...WITH SAID TRANSITION LIKELY TO NOT OCCUR
UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON AT TRIAD TAF SITES. THE STRENGTHENING AND
GRADUAL VEERING OF THE FLOW FROM SE TONIGHT TO SSW ON SUNDAY...JUST
ABOVE NE FLOW WITHIN A STABLE/COOL SURFACE LAYER...WILL RESULT IN
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THOUGH PRECIPITATION AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN
A LINGERING COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME AND ASSOCIATED SHALLOW
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH 14-17Z MON.

OUTLOOK: AFTER A RETURN TO VFR MON-MON NIGHT...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUE THROUGH THU...WITH THE RELATIVELY LOWEST AND MOST PROLONGED
CONDITIONS AT TRIAD TAF SITES...WHERE PROLONGED COLD AIR DAMMING
WILL BE MOST PROBABLE.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ008>010-024>026-040-041-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ077-083>086-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 282013
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

...LIGHT ICING EVENT LIKELY FOR THE NC PIEDMONT AND WRN
SANDHILLS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

OVERVIEW: WINTER IS MOST CERTAINLY NOT OVER YET. MORE WINTRY
PRECIP... DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY INCREASING MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ATOP THE COLD WEDGING SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR NE... APPEARS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND ENTER SOUTH-CENTRAL NC LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE PIEDMONT ON SUNDAY.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN: WE`LL MAINTAIN A FAST MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE WSW
(TRENDING TO BE FROM THE WEST) OVER NC. AT THE SURFACE... THE PARENT
HIGH PROVIDING THE CHILLY AIR WILL SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST
LATE TONIGHT... ALLOWING THE INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE SE COAST AND
COASTAL NC TO SHARPEN. THIS WILL CULMINATE IN A RESIDUAL STABLE COLD
POOL (AND MESOHIGH) OVER THE FAR WRN PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS OF NC/SC
LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. AT 850 MB... A WEAK WAVE WILL TRACK FROM
NRN FL TO THE NORTH... RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING FLOW JUST ALOFT
AND AN INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE IN CENTRAL NC THERMAL
PROFILES. THIS WAVE WILL TRACK TO OUR NE SUN EVENING/SUN NIGHT...
LEADING TO AN EVENTUAL END TO PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST.

PRECIP TIMING AND AMOUNTS: HAVE MAINLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION WRF-NMM/WRF-ARW... THE HRRR... AND DOWNSCALED NAM QPF AND
TIMING. EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE SRN PIEDMONT AND
SANDHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... WITH LOW COVERAGE AND JUST TRACE
AMOUNTS. THEN AS THE MOIST UPGLIDE DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS... EXPECT
PRECIP TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 50-60% COVERAGE (AND THIS MAY NEED TO
BE RAISED IF LATER MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT) OVER THE PIEDMONT
SUNDAY MORNING... SPREADING EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON... BEFORE ENDING WEST TO EAST SUN NIGHT. MODELS DEPICT A
FAIRLY LIGHT QPF... ESPECIALLY INITIALLY OVER THE SANDHILLS UP
THROUGH THE EASTERN PIEDMONT WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR DRY
POCKETS ALOFT. THIS IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE LIFT. EXPECT TOTAL QPF GENERALLY FROM 0.25 TO 0.40...
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE SE CWA TRENDING TO THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE NW CWA.

PRECIP TYPE: FOLLOWING THE TOP-DOWN PTYPE METHODOLOGY... EXPECT ANY
INITIAL PRECIP TO BE SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE (DUE TO
SOMEWHAT DRY AIR ALOFT LIMITING ICE IN THE CLOUD)... TRENDING TO
MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER NRN/WRN CWA. THE ENCROACHING WARMER
SURFACE AIR (AS THE COLD DOME THINS ON THE EDGES) WILL RESULT IN AN
HOUR-BY-HOUR TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN FROM SE TO NW... WITH THE
FREEZING RAIN THREAT LAST DEPARTING FROM THE TRIAD/ROXBORO AREAS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WET BULBS THERE RISE TO AROUND FREEZING. AS
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE RETREATING NE AWAY FROM THE AREA... IT WILL
SLOWLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA AND CEASE TO PROVIDE A STEADY
SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT MIGHT ENSURE CONTINUED GLAZE BUILD-
UP. SO WITH TIME... LATENT HEAT RELEASE WILL SERVE TO LIMIT ICE
ACCRUAL... SUCH THAT SOME OF THE QPF IN THE LATTER HOURS OF THE
EVENT WILL SIMPLY RUN OFF. THAT SAID HOWEVER... BASED ON FORECAST
SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS... IT APPEARS THAT THERE
WILL BE A DEEP ENOUGH SURFACE COLD LAYER TO SUPPORT A LIGHT GLAZING
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA... WITH THE GREATER
AMOUNTS (PERHAPS AT OR JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH) OVER THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED NW CWA.

TEMPERATURES: READINGS WILL FOLLOW AN ATYPICAL TREND THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT OF 23-33... HIGHS SUNDAY OF 32-39 WEST OF
I-95 AND MAINLY 40S EAST OF I-95... AND LOWS SUN NIGHT 32-44...
ALTHOUGH TEMPS SUN EVENING/NIGHT SHOULD BE STEADY OR PERHAPS RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS THE RESIDUAL COOL POOL STARTS TO MIX
OUT IN THE FACE OF INCREASING WSW FLOW ALOFT LATE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLORADO LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON MONDAY
WILL BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT...
SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT DEVELOPS WILL EXTEND FROM APPROX THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE TUESDAY.

ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE CAD WEDGE THAT SET UP MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AND THE WARM FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO IT...SO CURRENTLY INDICATE
THE WEDGE STICKING AROUND A BIT LONGER...WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...AS ANY CHANGES TO THE
WEDGE EROSION AND TIMING/POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT RETREATS
NORTHWARD WILL HIGHLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL HOWEVER
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. SHOULD THE WEDGE BE
LOCKED IN LONGER OR ERODE EARLIER CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS WOULD BE
WAY OFF. TEMPS: LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAYS...INCREASING TO
LOW 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE ON WEDNESDAY. A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW TO LOW
50S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

PRECIPITATION: SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD FALL INTO THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY
AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH ADVECTS IN OVER THE COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ACT TO THEN LOCK THE WEDGE IN
LONGER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL REMAINS LARGELY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER CASE
OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP...AND FOR NOW EXPECT ALL PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...BUT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THAT PERIOD APPROACHES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FRIDAY...INCREASING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS NEXT 24 HRS: CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR
STARTING LATE THIS EVENING (SOUTH) INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
(NORTH)... WITH POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH NEAR BALTIMORE WILL
CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WRN NC THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT NO MORE THAN A DECK OF VFR MID CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE 03Z
(FAY) TO 06Z (RDU/RWI) TIME FRAME... WITH VFR VSBYS. A DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE
FROM NRN FL SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO WRN/CNTRL NC OVERNIGHT WILL
BRING A GROWING RISK OF PRECIP LATE... SPREADING IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH... WITH LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING FAY FIRST THEN MOVING INTO
INT/GSO/RDU AREAS LATE TONIGHT. RWI MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIP
UNTIL NEAR 18Z SUNDAY OR LATER. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THEN RAPIDLY
TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING... WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ESPECIALLY AT FAY STARTING AS EARLY AS 09Z.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN IFR OR LIFR CIGS AFTER 10Z-12Z SUNDAY.
FREEZING RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE AT INT/GSO LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO RAIN AT RDU... AND
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN CHANGING EARLY TO RAIN AT FAY. GLAZING OF ICE IS
MOST LIKELY AT INT/GSO... LESS SO AT RDU/FAY.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY... IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE REST OF SUNDAY WITH PRECIP SPREADING ENE INTO RWI. EVEN IF LLWS
CRITERIA ARE NOT STRICTLY MET... WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL BE
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SW THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3 KFT...
MAKING HANDLING OF SOME AIRCRAFT CHALLENGING. PRECIP ENDS EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING BUT LIFR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT... THEN ERODE FROM THE TOP MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
MON THROUGH MON NIGHT... THEN ANOTHER APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS EARLY TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAY
SEE A BREAK TO MVFR OR VFR CIGS WED... BUT YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
IS POISED TO BRING INCREASING WINDS WED THEN MORE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AND PRECIP WED NIGHT/THU. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ008>010-024>026-040-041-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ077-083>086-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 282013
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY...

...LIGHT ICING EVENT LIKELY FOR THE NC PIEDMONT AND WRN
SANDHILLS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

OVERVIEW: WINTER IS MOST CERTAINLY NOT OVER YET. MORE WINTRY
PRECIP... DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY INCREASING MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ATOP THE COLD WEDGING SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR NE... APPEARS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND ENTER SOUTH-CENTRAL NC LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE PIEDMONT ON SUNDAY.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN: WE`LL MAINTAIN A FAST MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE WSW
(TRENDING TO BE FROM THE WEST) OVER NC. AT THE SURFACE... THE PARENT
HIGH PROVIDING THE CHILLY AIR WILL SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST
LATE TONIGHT... ALLOWING THE INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE SE COAST AND
COASTAL NC TO SHARPEN. THIS WILL CULMINATE IN A RESIDUAL STABLE COLD
POOL (AND MESOHIGH) OVER THE FAR WRN PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS OF NC/SC
LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. AT 850 MB... A WEAK WAVE WILL TRACK FROM
NRN FL TO THE NORTH... RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING FLOW JUST ALOFT
AND AN INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE IN CENTRAL NC THERMAL
PROFILES. THIS WAVE WILL TRACK TO OUR NE SUN EVENING/SUN NIGHT...
LEADING TO AN EVENTUAL END TO PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST.

PRECIP TIMING AND AMOUNTS: HAVE MAINLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HIGH-
RESOLUTION WRF-NMM/WRF-ARW... THE HRRR... AND DOWNSCALED NAM QPF AND
TIMING. EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE SRN PIEDMONT AND
SANDHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... WITH LOW COVERAGE AND JUST TRACE
AMOUNTS. THEN AS THE MOIST UPGLIDE DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS... EXPECT
PRECIP TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 50-60% COVERAGE (AND THIS MAY NEED TO
BE RAISED IF LATER MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT) OVER THE PIEDMONT
SUNDAY MORNING... SPREADING EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON... BEFORE ENDING WEST TO EAST SUN NIGHT. MODELS DEPICT A
FAIRLY LIGHT QPF... ESPECIALLY INITIALLY OVER THE SANDHILLS UP
THROUGH THE EASTERN PIEDMONT WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR DRY
POCKETS ALOFT. THIS IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE LIFT. EXPECT TOTAL QPF GENERALLY FROM 0.25 TO 0.40...
WITH LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE SE CWA TRENDING TO THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE NW CWA.

PRECIP TYPE: FOLLOWING THE TOP-DOWN PTYPE METHODOLOGY... EXPECT ANY
INITIAL PRECIP TO BE SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE (DUE TO
SOMEWHAT DRY AIR ALOFT LIMITING ICE IN THE CLOUD)... TRENDING TO
MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER NRN/WRN CWA. THE ENCROACHING WARMER
SURFACE AIR (AS THE COLD DOME THINS ON THE EDGES) WILL RESULT IN AN
HOUR-BY-HOUR TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN FROM SE TO NW... WITH THE
FREEZING RAIN THREAT LAST DEPARTING FROM THE TRIAD/ROXBORO AREAS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WET BULBS THERE RISE TO AROUND FREEZING. AS
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE RETREATING NE AWAY FROM THE AREA... IT WILL
SLOWLY LOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA AND CEASE TO PROVIDE A STEADY
SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT MIGHT ENSURE CONTINUED GLAZE BUILD-
UP. SO WITH TIME... LATENT HEAT RELEASE WILL SERVE TO LIMIT ICE
ACCRUAL... SUCH THAT SOME OF THE QPF IN THE LATTER HOURS OF THE
EVENT WILL SIMPLY RUN OFF. THAT SAID HOWEVER... BASED ON FORECAST
SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS... IT APPEARS THAT THERE
WILL BE A DEEP ENOUGH SURFACE COLD LAYER TO SUPPORT A LIGHT GLAZING
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA... WITH THE GREATER
AMOUNTS (PERHAPS AT OR JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH) OVER THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED NW CWA.

TEMPERATURES: READINGS WILL FOLLOW AN ATYPICAL TREND THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT OF 23-33... HIGHS SUNDAY OF 32-39 WEST OF
I-95 AND MAINLY 40S EAST OF I-95... AND LOWS SUN NIGHT 32-44...
ALTHOUGH TEMPS SUN EVENING/NIGHT SHOULD BE STEADY OR PERHAPS RISE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS THE RESIDUAL COOL POOL STARTS TO MIX
OUT IN THE FACE OF INCREASING WSW FLOW ALOFT LATE. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLORADO LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON MONDAY
WILL BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT...
SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT DEVELOPS WILL EXTEND FROM APPROX THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE TUESDAY.

ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE CAD WEDGE THAT SET UP MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AND THE WARM FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO IT...SO CURRENTLY INDICATE
THE WEDGE STICKING AROUND A BIT LONGER...WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...AS ANY CHANGES TO THE
WEDGE EROSION AND TIMING/POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT RETREATS
NORTHWARD WILL HIGHLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL HOWEVER
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. SHOULD THE WEDGE BE
LOCKED IN LONGER OR ERODE EARLIER CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS WOULD BE
WAY OFF. TEMPS: LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAYS...INCREASING TO
LOW 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE ON WEDNESDAY. A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW TO LOW
50S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

PRECIPITATION: SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD FALL INTO THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY
AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH ADVECTS IN OVER THE COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ACT TO THEN LOCK THE WEDGE IN
LONGER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL REMAINS LARGELY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER CASE
OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP...AND FOR NOW EXPECT ALL PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...BUT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THAT PERIOD APPROACHES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FRIDAY...INCREASING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS NEXT 24 HRS: CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR
STARTING LATE THIS EVENING (SOUTH) INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
(NORTH)... WITH POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH NEAR BALTIMORE WILL
CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WRN NC THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT NO MORE THAN A DECK OF VFR MID CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE 03Z
(FAY) TO 06Z (RDU/RWI) TIME FRAME... WITH VFR VSBYS. A DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE
FROM NRN FL SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO WRN/CNTRL NC OVERNIGHT WILL
BRING A GROWING RISK OF PRECIP LATE... SPREADING IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH... WITH LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING FAY FIRST THEN MOVING INTO
INT/GSO/RDU AREAS LATE TONIGHT. RWI MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIP
UNTIL NEAR 18Z SUNDAY OR LATER. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THEN RAPIDLY
TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING... WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ESPECIALLY AT FAY STARTING AS EARLY AS 09Z.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN IFR OR LIFR CIGS AFTER 10Z-12Z SUNDAY.
FREEZING RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE AT INT/GSO LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO RAIN AT RDU... AND
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN CHANGING EARLY TO RAIN AT FAY. GLAZING OF ICE IS
MOST LIKELY AT INT/GSO... LESS SO AT RDU/FAY.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY... IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE REST OF SUNDAY WITH PRECIP SPREADING ENE INTO RWI. EVEN IF LLWS
CRITERIA ARE NOT STRICTLY MET... WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL BE
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SW THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3 KFT...
MAKING HANDLING OF SOME AIRCRAFT CHALLENGING. PRECIP ENDS EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING BUT LIFR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT... THEN ERODE FROM THE TOP MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
MON THROUGH MON NIGHT... THEN ANOTHER APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS EARLY TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAY
SEE A BREAK TO MVFR OR VFR CIGS WED... BUT YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
IS POISED TO BRING INCREASING WINDS WED THEN MORE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AND PRECIP WED NIGHT/THU. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ008>010-024>026-040-041-073>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ077-083>086-088.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
NCZ007-021>023-038-039.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 281959
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
259 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

REST OF TODAY: HAVE LET THE ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE... ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR SO FOR SOME AREAS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING... AND WILL COVER THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT. OTHERWISE... MID CLOUDS (AND A FEW LOWER CLOUDS)
STREAMING ACROSS THE NRN/WRN CWA ARE PROJECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA TODAY... RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY... WITH AN EVENTUAL NW-TO-SE PARTIAL
CLEARING TREND LATE IN THE DAY... AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND
CANADIAN MODELS(WHICH ARE DOING BETTER WITH THE CURRENT SKY COVER
WHILE THE GFS IS DEPICTING FAR TOO MANY LOW CLOUDS IN THE TRIAD).
CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY... AND THIS LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY
AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS DOWN AT LEAST 2-3 CATEGORIES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY... IN THE
36-43 RANGE. -GIH

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.-WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLORADO LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON MONDAY
WILL BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT...
SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT DEVELOPS WILL EXTEND FROM APPROX THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE TUESDAY.

ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE CAD WEDGE THAT SET UP MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AND THE WARM FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO IT...SO CURRENTLY INDICATE
THE WEDGE STICKING AROUND A BIT LONGER...WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...AS ANY CHANGES TO THE
WEDGE EROSION AND TIMING/POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT RETREATS
NORTHWARD WILL HIGHLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL HOWEVER
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. SHOULD THE WEDGE BE
LOCKED IN LONGER OR ERODE EARLIER CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS WOULD BE
WAY OFF. TEMPS: LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAYS...INCREASING TO
LOW 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE ON WEDNESDAY. A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW TO LOW
50S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

PRECIPITATION: SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD FALL INTO THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY
AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH ADVECTS IN OVER THE COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ACT TO THEN LOCK THE WEDGE IN
LONGER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL REMAINS LARGELY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER CASE
OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP...AND FOR NOW EXPECT ALL PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...BUT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THAT PERIOD APPROACHES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FRIDAY...INCREASING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS NEXT 24 HRS: CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR
STARTING LATE THIS EVENING (SOUTH) INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
(NORTH)... WITH POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH NEAR BALTIMORE WILL
CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WRN NC THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT NO MORE THAN A DECK OF VFR MID CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE 03Z
(FAY) TO 06Z (RDU/RWI) TIME FRAME... WITH VFR VSBYS. A DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE
FROM NRN FL SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO WRN/CNTRL NC OVERNIGHT WILL
BRING A GROWING RISK OF PRECIP LATE... SPREADING IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH... WITH LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING FAY FIRST THEN MOVING INTO
INT/GSO/RDU AREAS LATE TONIGHT. RWI MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIP
UNTIL NEAR 18Z SUNDAY OR LATER. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THEN RAPIDLY
TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING... WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ESPECIALLY AT FAY STARTING AS EARLY AS 09Z.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN IFR OR LIFR CIGS AFTER 10Z-12Z SUNDAY.
FREEZING RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE AT INT/GSO LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO RAIN AT RDU... AND
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN CHANGING EARLY TO RAIN AT FAY. GLAZING OF ICE IS
MOST LIKELY AT INT/GSO... LESS SO AT RDU/FAY.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY... IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE REST OF SUNDAY WITH PRECIP SPREADING ENE INTO RWI. EVEN IF LLWS
CRITERIA ARE NOT STRICTLY MET... WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL BE
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SW THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3 KFT...
MAKING HANDLING OF SOME AIRCRAFT CHALLENGING. PRECIP ENDS EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING BUT LIFR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT... THEN ERODE FROM THE TOP MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
MON THROUGH MON NIGHT... THEN ANOTHER APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS EARLY TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAY
SEE A BREAK TO MVFR OR VFR CIGS WED... BUT YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
IS POISED TO BRING INCREASING WINDS WED THEN MORE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AND PRECIP WED NIGHT/THU. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281959
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
259 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

REST OF TODAY: HAVE LET THE ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE... ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR SO FOR SOME AREAS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING... AND WILL COVER THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT. OTHERWISE... MID CLOUDS (AND A FEW LOWER CLOUDS)
STREAMING ACROSS THE NRN/WRN CWA ARE PROJECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA TODAY... RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY... WITH AN EVENTUAL NW-TO-SE PARTIAL
CLEARING TREND LATE IN THE DAY... AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND
CANADIAN MODELS(WHICH ARE DOING BETTER WITH THE CURRENT SKY COVER
WHILE THE GFS IS DEPICTING FAR TOO MANY LOW CLOUDS IN THE TRIAD).
CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY... AND THIS LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY
AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS DOWN AT LEAST 2-3 CATEGORIES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY... IN THE
36-43 RANGE. -GIH

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.-WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...

THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
IN THE DAY...DRYING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL TILT TO A
MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER AND REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE DURING THE
DAY GIVEN GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND THUS GOOD SUNSHINE...THE
INCREASES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE FROPA HAPPENS
LATER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH TO UPPER 50S
IN THE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN TEH UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLORADO LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON MONDAY
WILL BEGIN ITS TREK EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT...
SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT DEVELOPS WILL EXTEND FROM APPROX THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO THE ARKLATEX BY LATE TUESDAY.

ACROSS CENTRAL NC...THE CAD WEDGE THAT SET UP MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE LINGERING WEDGE AND THE WARM FRONT RETREATING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO ERODE THE WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY
IF THERE IS PRECIPITATION FALLING INTO IT...SO CURRENTLY INDICATE
THE WEDGE STICKING AROUND A BIT LONGER...WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN
TEMPS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...AS ANY CHANGES TO THE
WEDGE EROSION AND TIMING/POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT RETREATS
NORTHWARD WILL HIGHLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THEY WILL HOWEVER
INCREASE GRADUALLY FROM MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD. SHOULD THE WEDGE BE
LOCKED IN LONGER OR ERODE EARLIER CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS WOULD BE
WAY OFF. TEMPS: LOW 40S NW TO MID 50S SE TUESDAYS...INCREASING TO
LOW 60S NW TO LOW 70S SE ON WEDNESDAY. A NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CURVE SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW TO LOW
50S SE. HIGHS THURSDAY MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.

PRECIPITATION: SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD FALL INTO THE WEDGE ON TUESDAY
AS WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH ADVECTS IN OVER THE COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ACT TO THEN LOCK THE WEDGE IN
LONGER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE RAINFALL REMAINS LARGELY
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND THE
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LATEST RUNS
SUGGEST THAT RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS IS ANOTHER CASE
OF THE COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP...AND FOR NOW EXPECT ALL PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...BUT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THAT PERIOD APPROACHES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FROPA THURSDAY NIGHT...REMAINING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR NOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FRIDAY...INCREASING INTO THE 50S SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS NEXT 24 HRS: CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR
STARTING LATE THIS EVENING (SOUTH) INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
(NORTH)... WITH POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH NEAR BALTIMORE WILL
CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WRN NC THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT NO MORE THAN A DECK OF VFR MID CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE 03Z
(FAY) TO 06Z (RDU/RWI) TIME FRAME... WITH VFR VSBYS. A DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE
FROM NRN FL SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO WRN/CNTRL NC OVERNIGHT WILL
BRING A GROWING RISK OF PRECIP LATE... SPREADING IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH... WITH LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING FAY FIRST THEN MOVING INTO
INT/GSO/RDU AREAS LATE TONIGHT. RWI MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIP
UNTIL NEAR 18Z SUNDAY OR LATER. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THEN RAPIDLY
TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING... WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ESPECIALLY AT FAY STARTING AS EARLY AS 09Z.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN IFR OR LIFR CIGS AFTER 10Z-12Z SUNDAY.
FREEZING RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE AT INT/GSO LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO RAIN AT RDU... AND
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN CHANGING EARLY TO RAIN AT FAY. GLAZING OF ICE IS
MOST LIKELY AT INT/GSO... LESS SO AT RDU/FAY.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY... IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE REST OF SUNDAY WITH PRECIP SPREADING ENE INTO RWI. EVEN IF LLWS
CRITERIA ARE NOT STRICTLY MET... WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL BE
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SW THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3 KFT...
MAKING HANDLING OF SOME AIRCRAFT CHALLENGING. PRECIP ENDS EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING BUT LIFR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT... THEN ERODE FROM THE TOP MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
MON THROUGH MON NIGHT... THEN ANOTHER APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS EARLY TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAY
SEE A BREAK TO MVFR OR VFR CIGS WED... BUT YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
IS POISED TO BRING INCREASING WINDS WED THEN MORE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AND PRECIP WED NIGHT/THU. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 281734
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1235 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

REST OF TODAY: HAVE LET THE ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE... ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR SO FOR SOME AREAS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING... AND WILL COVER THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT. OTHERWISE... MID CLOUDS (AND A FEW LOWER CLOUDS)
STREAMING ACROSS THE NRN/WRN CWA ARE PROJECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA TODAY... RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY... WITH AN EVENTUAL NW-TO-SE PARTIAL
CLEARING TREND LATE IN THE DAY... AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND
CANADIAN MODELS(WHICH ARE DOING BETTER WITH THE CURRENT SKY COVER
WHILE THE GFS IS DEPICTING FAR TOO MANY LOW CLOUDS IN THE TRIAD).
CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY... AND THIS LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY
AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS DOWN AT LEAST 2-3 CATEGORIES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY... IN THE
36-43 RANGE. -GIH

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.-WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS NEXT 24 HRS: CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR
STARTING LATE THIS EVENING (SOUTH) INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
(NORTH)... WITH POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH NEAR BALTIMORE WILL
CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WRN NC THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT NO MORE THAN A DECK OF VFR MID CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE 03Z
(FAY) TO 06Z (RDU/RWI) TIME FRAME... WITH VFR VSBYS. A DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE
FROM NRN FL SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO WRN/CNTRL NC OVERNIGHT WILL
BRING A GROWING RISK OF PRECIP LATE... SPREADING IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH... WITH LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING FAY FIRST THEN MOVING INTO
INT/GSO/RDU AREAS LATE TONIGHT. RWI MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIP
UNTIL NEAR 18Z SUNDAY OR LATER. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THEN RAPIDLY
TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING... WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ESPECIALLY AT FAY STARTING AS EARLY AS 09Z.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN IFR OR LIFR CIGS AFTER 10Z-12Z SUNDAY.
FREEZING RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE AT INT/GSO LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO RAIN AT RDU... AND
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN CHANGING EARLY TO RAIN AT FAY. GLAZING OF ICE IS
MOST LIKELY AT INT/GSO... LESS SO AT RDU/FAY.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY... IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE REST OF SUNDAY WITH PRECIP SPREADING ENE INTO RWI. EVEN IF LLWS
CRITERIA ARE NOT STRICTLY MET... WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL BE
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SW THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3 KFT...
MAKING HANDLING OF SOME AIRCRAFT CHALLENGING. PRECIP ENDS EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING BUT LIFR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT... THEN ERODE FROM THE TOP MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
MON THROUGH MON NIGHT... THEN ANOTHER APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS EARLY TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAY
SEE A BREAK TO MVFR OR VFR CIGS WED... BUT YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
IS POISED TO BRING INCREASING WINDS WED THEN MORE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AND PRECIP WED NIGHT/THU. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281734
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1235 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

REST OF TODAY: HAVE LET THE ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE... ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR SO FOR SOME AREAS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING... AND WILL COVER THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT. OTHERWISE... MID CLOUDS (AND A FEW LOWER CLOUDS)
STREAMING ACROSS THE NRN/WRN CWA ARE PROJECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA TODAY... RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY... WITH AN EVENTUAL NW-TO-SE PARTIAL
CLEARING TREND LATE IN THE DAY... AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND
CANADIAN MODELS(WHICH ARE DOING BETTER WITH THE CURRENT SKY COVER
WHILE THE GFS IS DEPICTING FAR TOO MANY LOW CLOUDS IN THE TRIAD).
CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY... AND THIS LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY
AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS DOWN AT LEAST 2-3 CATEGORIES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY... IN THE
36-43 RANGE. -GIH

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.-WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS NEXT 24 HRS: CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR
STARTING LATE THIS EVENING (SOUTH) INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
(NORTH)... WITH POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH NEAR BALTIMORE WILL
CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WRN NC THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT NO MORE THAN A DECK OF VFR MID CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE 03Z
(FAY) TO 06Z (RDU/RWI) TIME FRAME... WITH VFR VSBYS. A DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE
FROM NRN FL SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO WRN/CNTRL NC OVERNIGHT WILL
BRING A GROWING RISK OF PRECIP LATE... SPREADING IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH... WITH LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING FAY FIRST THEN MOVING INTO
INT/GSO/RDU AREAS LATE TONIGHT. RWI MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIP
UNTIL NEAR 18Z SUNDAY OR LATER. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THEN RAPIDLY
TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING... WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ESPECIALLY AT FAY STARTING AS EARLY AS 09Z.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN IFR OR LIFR CIGS AFTER 10Z-12Z SUNDAY.
FREEZING RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE AT INT/GSO LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO RAIN AT RDU... AND
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN CHANGING EARLY TO RAIN AT FAY. GLAZING OF ICE IS
MOST LIKELY AT INT/GSO... LESS SO AT RDU/FAY.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY... IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE REST OF SUNDAY WITH PRECIP SPREADING ENE INTO RWI. EVEN IF LLWS
CRITERIA ARE NOT STRICTLY MET... WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL BE
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SW THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3 KFT...
MAKING HANDLING OF SOME AIRCRAFT CHALLENGING. PRECIP ENDS EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING BUT LIFR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT... THEN ERODE FROM THE TOP MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
MON THROUGH MON NIGHT... THEN ANOTHER APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS EARLY TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAY
SEE A BREAK TO MVFR OR VFR CIGS WED... BUT YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
IS POISED TO BRING INCREASING WINDS WED THEN MORE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AND PRECIP WED NIGHT/THU. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 281734
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1235 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

REST OF TODAY: HAVE LET THE ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE... ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR SO FOR SOME AREAS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING... AND WILL COVER THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT. OTHERWISE... MID CLOUDS (AND A FEW LOWER CLOUDS)
STREAMING ACROSS THE NRN/WRN CWA ARE PROJECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA TODAY... RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY... WITH AN EVENTUAL NW-TO-SE PARTIAL
CLEARING TREND LATE IN THE DAY... AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND
CANADIAN MODELS(WHICH ARE DOING BETTER WITH THE CURRENT SKY COVER
WHILE THE GFS IS DEPICTING FAR TOO MANY LOW CLOUDS IN THE TRIAD).
CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY... AND THIS LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY
AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS DOWN AT LEAST 2-3 CATEGORIES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY... IN THE
36-43 RANGE. -GIH

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.-WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM SATURDAY...

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS NEXT 24 HRS: CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AND IFR
STARTING LATE THIS EVENING (SOUTH) INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
(NORTH)... WITH POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH NEAR BALTIMORE WILL
CONTINUE TO NOSE SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/WRN NC THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT NO MORE THAN A DECK OF VFR MID CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE 03Z
(FAY) TO 06Z (RDU/RWI) TIME FRAME... WITH VFR VSBYS. A DEVELOPING
INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE
FROM NRN FL SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO WRN/CNTRL NC OVERNIGHT WILL
BRING A GROWING RISK OF PRECIP LATE... SPREADING IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH... WITH LIGHT PRECIP AFFECTING FAY FIRST THEN MOVING INTO
INT/GSO/RDU AREAS LATE TONIGHT. RWI MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIP
UNTIL NEAR 18Z SUNDAY OR LATER. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THEN RAPIDLY
TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING... WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ESPECIALLY AT FAY STARTING AS EARLY AS 09Z.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN IFR OR LIFR CIGS AFTER 10Z-12Z SUNDAY.
FREEZING RAIN IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE AT INT/GSO LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO RAIN AT RDU... AND
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN CHANGING EARLY TO RAIN AT FAY. GLAZING OF ICE IS
MOST LIKELY AT INT/GSO... LESS SO AT RDU/FAY.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY... IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE REST OF SUNDAY WITH PRECIP SPREADING ENE INTO RWI. EVEN IF LLWS
CRITERIA ARE NOT STRICTLY MET... WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL BE
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SW THROUGH THE LOWEST 2-3 KFT...
MAKING HANDLING OF SOME AIRCRAFT CHALLENGING. PRECIP ENDS EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING BUT LIFR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT... THEN ERODE FROM THE TOP MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FROM NW TO SE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
MON THROUGH MON NIGHT... THEN ANOTHER APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS EARLY TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MAY
SEE A BREAK TO MVFR OR VFR CIGS WED... BUT YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
IS POISED TO BRING INCREASING WINDS WED THEN MORE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AND PRECIP WED NIGHT/THU. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281517
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1015 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

REST OF TODAY: HAVE LET THE ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE... ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR SO FOR SOME AREAS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING... AND WILL COVER THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT. OTHERWISE... MID CLOUDS (AND A FEW LOWER CLOUDS)
STREAMING ACROSS THE NRN/WRN CWA ARE PROJECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA TODAY... RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY... WITH AN EVENTUAL NW-TO-SE PARTIAL
CLEARING TREND LATE IN THE DAY... AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND
CANADIAN MODELS(WHICH ARE DOING BETTER WITH THE CURRENT SKY COVER
WHILE THE GFS IS DEPICTING FAR TOO MANY LOW CLOUDS IN THE TRIAD).
CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY... AND THIS LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY
AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS DOWN AT LEAST 2-3 CATEGORIES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY... IN THE
36-43 RANGE. -GIH

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.-WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...

AN AREA OF STRATOCU WITH BASES 4000-5000FT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
VICINITY OF THE TRIAD THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND MAY SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT KRDU. BULK OF STRATOCU WILL DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS THROUGH 18Z. THIS FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD
DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS PROBABLE AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SFC WINDS
PROJECTED TO BE E-NE LESS THAN 10KTS BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO
A SLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO 35-40KTS JUST BELOW 2000FT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 281517
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1015 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH TODAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
REGION WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1015 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

REST OF TODAY: HAVE LET THE ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE... ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR SO FOR SOME AREAS
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING... AND WILL COVER THIS WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT. OTHERWISE... MID CLOUDS (AND A FEW LOWER CLOUDS)
STREAMING ACROSS THE NRN/WRN CWA ARE PROJECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA TODAY... RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY... WITH AN EVENTUAL NW-TO-SE PARTIAL
CLEARING TREND LATE IN THE DAY... AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND
CANADIAN MODELS(WHICH ARE DOING BETTER WITH THE CURRENT SKY COVER
WHILE THE GFS IS DEPICTING FAR TOO MANY LOW CLOUDS IN THE TRIAD).
CHILLY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PA WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY... AND THIS LOW LEVEL COLD/DRY
AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE WILL HOLD MAX
TEMPS DOWN AT LEAST 2-3 CATEGORIES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY... IN THE
36-43 RANGE. -GIH

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.-WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...

AN AREA OF STRATOCU WITH BASES 4000-5000FT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
VICINITY OF THE TRIAD THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND MAY SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT KRDU. BULK OF STRATOCU WILL DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS THROUGH 18Z. THIS FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD
DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS PROBABLE AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SFC WINDS
PROJECTED TO BE E-NE LESS THAN 10KTS BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO
A SLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO 35-40KTS JUST BELOW 2000FT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281204
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
705 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

TODAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS EVIDENT BY THE SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AT 07Z. THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THUS EXPECT THE
AXIS OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS (TEENS) TO LIE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST-SW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A THICKER MORE EXTENSIVE VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING EAST-NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH.
THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
TODAY. STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST
MILKY SUNSHINE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. INSPITE OF MOSTLY-PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVEL CAA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...

AN AREA OF STRATOCU WITH BASES 4000-5000FT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
VICINITY OF THE TRIAD THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND MAY SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT KRDU. BULK OF STRATOCU WILL DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS THROUGH 18Z. THIS FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD
DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS PROBABLE AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SFC WINDS
PROJECTED TO BE E-NE LESS THAN 10KTS BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO
A SLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO 35-40KTS JUST BELOW 2000FT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281204
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
705 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

TODAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS EVIDENT BY THE SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AT 07Z. THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THUS EXPECT THE
AXIS OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS (TEENS) TO LIE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST-SW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A THICKER MORE EXTENSIVE VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING EAST-NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH.
THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
TODAY. STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST
MILKY SUNSHINE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. INSPITE OF MOSTLY-PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVEL CAA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...

AN AREA OF STRATOCU WITH BASES 4000-5000FT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
VICINITY OF THE TRIAD THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND MAY SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT KRDU. BULK OF STRATOCU WILL DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS THROUGH 18Z. THIS FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD
DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS PROBABLE AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SFC WINDS
PROJECTED TO BE E-NE LESS THAN 10KTS BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO
A SLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO 35-40KTS JUST BELOW 2000FT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 281204
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
705 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

TODAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS EVIDENT BY THE SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AT 07Z. THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THUS EXPECT THE
AXIS OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS (TEENS) TO LIE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST-SW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A THICKER MORE EXTENSIVE VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING EAST-NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH.
THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
TODAY. STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST
MILKY SUNSHINE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. INSPITE OF MOSTLY-PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVEL CAA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...

AN AREA OF STRATOCU WITH BASES 4000-5000FT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
VICINITY OF THE TRIAD THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND MAY SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT KRDU. BULK OF STRATOCU WILL DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS THROUGH 18Z. THIS FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD
DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS PROBABLE AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SFC WINDS
PROJECTED TO BE E-NE LESS THAN 10KTS BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO
A SLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO 35-40KTS JUST BELOW 2000FT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 281204
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
705 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

TODAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS EVIDENT BY THE SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AT 07Z. THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THUS EXPECT THE
AXIS OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS (TEENS) TO LIE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST-SW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A THICKER MORE EXTENSIVE VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING EAST-NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH.
THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
TODAY. STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST
MILKY SUNSHINE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. INSPITE OF MOSTLY-PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVEL CAA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...

AN AREA OF STRATOCU WITH BASES 4000-5000FT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
VICINITY OF THE TRIAD THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND MAY SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT KRDU. BULK OF STRATOCU WILL DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS THROUGH 18Z. THIS FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD
DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS PROBABLE AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SFC WINDS
PROJECTED TO BE E-NE LESS THAN 10KTS BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO
A SLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE TO 35-40KTS JUST BELOW 2000FT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281153
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

TODAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS EVIDENT BY THE SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AT 07Z. THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THUS EXPECT THE
AXIS OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS (TEENS) TO LIE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST-SW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A THICKER MORE EXTENSIVE VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING EAST-NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH.
THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
TODAY. STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST
MILKY SUNSHINE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. INSPITE OF MOSTLY-PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVEL CAA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM SATURDAY...

AN AREA OF STRATOCU WITH BASES 4000-5000FT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
VICINITY OF THE TRIAD THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND MAY SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT KRDU. BULK OF STRATOCU WILL DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS THROUGH 18Z. THIS FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD
DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281153
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

TODAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS EVIDENT BY THE SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AT 07Z. THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THUS EXPECT THE
AXIS OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS (TEENS) TO LIE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST-SW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A THICKER MORE EXTENSIVE VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING EAST-NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH.
THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
TODAY. STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST
MILKY SUNSHINE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. INSPITE OF MOSTLY-PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVEL CAA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM SATURDAY...

AN AREA OF STRATOCU WITH BASES 4000-5000FT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
VICINITY OF THE TRIAD THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND MAY SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT KRDU. BULK OF STRATOCU WILL DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS THROUGH 18Z. THIS FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD
DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 281153
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

TODAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS EVIDENT BY THE SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AT 07Z. THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THUS EXPECT THE
AXIS OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS (TEENS) TO LIE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST-SW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A THICKER MORE EXTENSIVE VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING EAST-NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH.
THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
TODAY. STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST
MILKY SUNSHINE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. INSPITE OF MOSTLY-PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVEL CAA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM SATURDAY...

AN AREA OF STRATOCU WITH BASES 4000-5000FT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
VICINITY OF THE TRIAD THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND MAY SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT KRDU. BULK OF STRATOCU WILL DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS THROUGH 18Z. THIS FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD
DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 281153
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

TODAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS EVIDENT BY THE SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AT 07Z. THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THUS EXPECT THE
AXIS OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS (TEENS) TO LIE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST-SW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A THICKER MORE EXTENSIVE VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING EAST-NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH.
THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
TODAY. STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST
MILKY SUNSHINE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. INSPITE OF MOSTLY-PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVEL CAA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM SATURDAY...

AN AREA OF STRATOCU WITH BASES 4000-5000FT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
VICINITY OF THE TRIAD THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND MAY SPREAD EAST TO
AFFECT KRDU. BULK OF STRATOCU WILL DIMINISH AFTER 15Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS THROUGH 18Z. THIS FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD
DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 280823
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
322 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

TODAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS EVIDENT BY THE SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AT 07Z. THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THUS EXPECT THE
AXIS OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS (TEENS) TO LIE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST-SW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A THICKER MORE EXTENSIVE VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING EAST-NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH.
THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
TODAY. STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST
MILKY SUNSHINE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. INSPITE OF MOSTLY-PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVEL CAA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE A DECK OF STRATOCU TO
PROGRESS SWWD ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY 10Z...THE STRATOCU WILL LIKELY BE
BANKED UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND EXTEND BACK INTO THE TRIAD
REGION. THIS STRATOCU DECK SHOULD DIMINISH IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD
BY 14Z-15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS BETWEEN 10Z-18Z. THIS
FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 280823
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
322 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

TODAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS EVIDENT BY THE SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AT 07Z. THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THUS EXPECT THE
AXIS OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS (TEENS) TO LIE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST-SW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A THICKER MORE EXTENSIVE VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING EAST-NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH.
THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
TODAY. STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST
MILKY SUNSHINE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. INSPITE OF MOSTLY-PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVEL CAA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A 1030+ MB SURFACE
HIGH... EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY MORNING... WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... LEAVING A DRY SURFACE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
MEANWHILE... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED... A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY NIGHT... WILL THEN QUICKLY LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING... WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH... AS THE FRONT BECOMING PARALLE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND QUITE WET... WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION TO START THE PERIOD SHIFTING EASTWARD.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY ATOP THE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS... WITH
LIKELY AN INSITU CAD WEDGE DEVELOPING AS SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY
DRIVEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER... WITH SURFACE HIGH
LONG GONE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING WE SHOULD
SEE THE CAD WEDGE BEGIN TO RETREAT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY... WITH TEMPS
LIKELY RISING OVERNIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND INTO AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY... WITH THE FRONT NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW
WITHIN ABOUT 6 HOURS OF EACH OTHER NOW... WITH THE GFS ON THE FASTER
SIDE)... WITH WPC FAVORING THE SLOWER ECMWF TIMING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY (WHICH COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES..
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT) IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SWITCH OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS ON THURSDAY
EVENING... BUT THIS IS WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO ADD ANY NON-
LIQUID... WHICH WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AS
WELL. COLD AIR CHASING THE PRECIP. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY.

TEMPS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE A ROLLER COASTER... WITH HIGHS
TEMPS... TUESDAY... 40S TO LOWER 50S... WEDNESDAY 60S AND 70S...
THURSDAY 40S AND 50S... AND FINALLY FRIDAY BACK IN THE 40S (WITH
MAYBE SOME 30S EVEN). LOWS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...
ALL PRECIP AS OF NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID FOR THE
MEDIUM RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE A DECK OF STRATOCU TO
PROGRESS SWWD ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY 10Z...THE STRATOCU WILL LIKELY BE
BANKED UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND EXTEND BACK INTO THE TRIAD
REGION. THIS STRATOCU DECK SHOULD DIMINISH IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD
BY 14Z-15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS BETWEEN 10Z-18Z. THIS
FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 280819
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

TODAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS EVIDENT BY THE SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AT 07Z. THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THUS EXPECT THE
AXIS OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS (TEENS) TO LIE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST-SW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A THICKER MORE EXTENSIVE VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING EAST-NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH.
THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
TODAY. STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST
MILKY SUNSHINE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. INSPITE OF MOSTLY-PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVEL CAA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...

A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGER OVER
CENTRAL NC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFT/EVE AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS TIME...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
FROM NW TO SE AND WILL AGAIN LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LATE EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO POTENTIALLY THE LOW 50S NW TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
HABIT OF THE GFS TO BE A BIT ON THE FAST SIDE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FROPA TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL
RAINFALL. THE GFS BRINGS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL START AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY IN THE NW AND END AROUND 00Z FRIDAY IN THE SE AND DRYING
OUT EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (AS OF THE LATEST RUNS). TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THEY WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THAT BEING SAID HAVE HIGHS WED IN THE
UPPER 50S NW TO LOW 70S SE. LOWS WED NIGHT  AND HIGHS THURSDAY
PROBABLY A BIT TOO COOL...LOW 40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH AND
UPPER AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S SE...RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT A
COOL BUT DRY PERIOD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE A DECK OF STRATOCU TO
PROGRESS SWWD ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY 10Z...THE STRATOCU WILL LIKELY BE
BANKED UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND EXTEND BACK INTO THE TRIAD
REGION. THIS STRATOCU DECK SHOULD DIMINISH IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD
BY 14Z-15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS BETWEEN 10Z-18Z. THIS
FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 280819
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...

...THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING EVENT INCREASING FOR THE NC PIEDMONT
EARLY SUNDAY...

TODAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS EVIDENT BY THE SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT AT 07Z. THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. THUS EXPECT THE
AXIS OF THE LOWER DEWPOINTS (TEENS) TO LIE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

A NARROW BAND OF STRATUS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST-SW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE A THICKER MORE EXTENSIVE VEIL OF
HIGH CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING EAST-NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH.
THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER
TODAY. STILL THINK THAT CLOUDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST
MILKY SUNSHINE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. INSPITE OF MOSTLY-PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES...LOW LEVEL CAA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 7-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS MID-UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT FOR A LIGHT ICING
EPISODE EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING A
SUPPLY OF COLD DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 2-4K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ABOVE THE COLD DRY STABLE LAYER...SLY FLOW WILL BE INCREASING IN
RESPONSE TO THE 850MB HIGH DRIFTING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS
RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A WARMER...MORE MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...THUS EXPECT THE BEST UPGLIDE TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. STILL...MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH
RETURN FLOW EVENTS. THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT/SMALL CHANCE POP
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/WESTERN SANDHILLS.

PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD RAIN BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS A DECENT WARM NOSE DEVELOPS ALOFT. HOWEVER MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER OVER MOST OF CENTRAL
NC AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THUS...ANY LIGHT PRECIP THAT OCCURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING
DRIZZLE.

MIN TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INITIALLY BE THINNEST TO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH-SW.

SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE WEST AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES. THIS PRECIP FALLING
THROUGH THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL LEAD TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...LIKELY LOCKING IN THE SUB FREEZING SFC TEMPS
OVER THE PIEDMONT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CAP POPS AT SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TRENDING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IF LATER
MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT...AN INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE WARRANTED
AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE WEST.

THE LOCKING IN OF THE SUB FREEZING TEMPS WILL CAUSE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ICE ACCRUAL TO CAUSE POWER OUTAGES
BUT COULD SEE SOME SLICK ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
THIS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY IN LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN THE HWO.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE TO LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS UPGLIDE REACHES MAXIMUM. WILL EVENTUALLY SEE FREEZING RAIN
TRANSITION TO A COLD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE PIEDMONT BY MID DAY...AND
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE OVERCAST SKIES AND
EXPECTED PRECIP WILL LIMIT TEMPS TO THE LOW-MID 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 30S-LOWER 40S EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
COAST ON SUNDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE... A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW THE
BEST DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALOFT NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS. THUS... WITH A LACK OF A GOOD COLD AIR SOURCE TO THE
NORTH AND DRYING ALOFT TAKING PLACE... EXPECT WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
SLOWLY WARM OVERNIGHT... RESULTING IN LOW TEMPS OCCURRING DURING THE
SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR 40 DEGREES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY DRY. HOW
FAR THE CAD BOUNDARY ERODES BEFORE THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IS STILL IN QUESTION... WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HEART OF THE CAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
SEEING HIGH TEMPS OCCUR AFTER THE FROPA AS THE CAD AIRMASS WOULD
THEN BE SCOURED OUT (WITH POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SUN). THINK STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH FOR MONDAY... AND WENT CLOSER TO THE RAW
GFS/NAM MODEL VALUES. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT USHERING IN ANOTHER DRY COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID TO MAYBE UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...

A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGER OVER
CENTRAL NC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFT/EVE AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS TIME...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
FROM NW TO SE AND WILL AGAIN LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LATE EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO POTENTIALLY THE LOW 50S NW TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
HABIT OF THE GFS TO BE A BIT ON THE FAST SIDE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FROPA TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL
RAINFALL. THE GFS BRINGS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL START AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY IN THE NW AND END AROUND 00Z FRIDAY IN THE SE AND DRYING
OUT EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (AS OF THE LATEST RUNS). TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THEY WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THAT BEING SAID HAVE HIGHS WED IN THE
UPPER 50S NW TO LOW 70S SE. LOWS WED NIGHT  AND HIGHS THURSDAY
PROBABLY A BIT TOO COOL...LOW 40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH AND
UPPER AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S SE...RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT A
COOL BUT DRY PERIOD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE A DECK OF STRATOCU TO
PROGRESS SWWD ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY 10Z...THE STRATOCU WILL LIKELY BE
BANKED UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND EXTEND BACK INTO THE TRIAD
REGION. THIS STRATOCU DECK SHOULD DIMINISH IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD
BY 14Z-15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS BETWEEN 10Z-18Z. THIS
FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 280545
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1245 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM FRIDAY...

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO START THE NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR AND
WINDS ARE EITHER LIGHT OR CALM.  REGIONAL RAOB ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODEST COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS (BELOW 850MB) AS ANOTHER
1040MB HIGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST STATES.  THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH SHOW RAPID MOISTENING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH
SATURATION REACHING UP TO AROUND -8C AND EVEN A LITTLE QPF VIA SOME
SHALLOW FGEN WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR.  THE
STRATUS WOULD ESSENTIALLY DEVELOP OVERHEAD...SO THE LACK OF CLOUDS
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER VA ISNT MUCH HELP.  THE MOST RECENT NAM AND
GFS FORECAST SOUNDS HAVE TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SLOWER WITH THE SATURATION WHICH COULD BE AN INDICATION THAT THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE. SREF MEMBERS ARE PRETTY MUCH SPLIT DOWN THE
MIDDLE. STILL EXPECT SOME STRATUS WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW BUT MAYBE
MORE PATCHY THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  WILL LOWER LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON TRENDS...DIPPING TO NEAR 20 IN THE NORTHEAST AND CLOSER
TO 30 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

AS FOR BLACK ICE...DESPITE A DAY OF GOOD MELTING TODAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING IS STILL THERE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL OF THE HARDEST HIT COUNTIES...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND FOR FORSYTH EAST TO FRANKLIN. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THAT GOT LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
COVER THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF BLACK ICE POTENTIAL.

FOR SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. LIKE TODAY...IF THERE IS
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...THE SUN COULD HELP WARM TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL TURN TO THE SW
AND BEGIN ADVECTING MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA AS THE 850MB RIDGE
MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...
THE SUBSEQUENT OVERRUNNING AND UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW REGARDING
WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE PRECIP START TIME
IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH...SAY A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH STILL FOR A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. EVEN IF THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY...THE QPF DURING THAT TIME WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IT`S
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVE/NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SE TOWARD THE REGION.
RAINFALL COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFT/EVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EXCITED ABOUT THAT POSSIBILITY THAN
THE ECMWF. THERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...AS
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS ANTICIPATED FROM 18Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH OF
A WARM NOSE ABOVE THE SURFACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ICE
NUCLEATION REGION THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES OR SO OVERNIGHT
INTO THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE BY MONDAY MORNING. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF CENTRAL
NC...WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES ACTUALLY ENDING WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW THE RAINFALL ALONG THE MAIN AXIS OF THE
FRONT DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FRONT BECOMING
ORIENTED MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFT/EVE.
DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS
IT SETTLES SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY BIG MARGIN FOR ERROR IN THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...

A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGER OVER
CENTRAL NC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFT/EVE AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS TIME...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
FROM NW TO SE AND WILL AGAIN LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LATE EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO POTENTIALLY THE LOW 50S NW TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
HABIT OF THE GFS TO BE A BIT ON THE FAST SIDE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FROPA TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL
RAINFALL. THE GFS BRINGS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL START AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY IN THE NW AND END AROUND 00Z FRIDAY IN THE SE AND DRYING
OUT EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (AS OF THE LATEST RUNS). TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THEY WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THAT BEING SAID HAVE HIGHS WED IN THE
UPPER 50S NW TO LOW 70S SE. LOWS WED NIGHT  AND HIGHS THURSDAY
PROBABLY A BIT TOO COOL...LOW 40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH AND
UPPER AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S SE...RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT A
COOL BUT DRY PERIOD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE A DECK OF STRATOCU TO
PROGRESS SWWD ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY 10Z...THE STRATOCU WILL LIKELY BE
BANKED UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND EXTEND BACK INTO THE TRIAD
REGION. THIS STRATOCU DECK SHOULD DIMINISH IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD
BY 14Z-15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS BETWEEN 10Z-18Z. THIS
FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH/BLS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 280545
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1245 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM FRIDAY...

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO START THE NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR AND
WINDS ARE EITHER LIGHT OR CALM.  REGIONAL RAOB ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODEST COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS (BELOW 850MB) AS ANOTHER
1040MB HIGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST STATES.  THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH SHOW RAPID MOISTENING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH
SATURATION REACHING UP TO AROUND -8C AND EVEN A LITTLE QPF VIA SOME
SHALLOW FGEN WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR.  THE
STRATUS WOULD ESSENTIALLY DEVELOP OVERHEAD...SO THE LACK OF CLOUDS
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER VA ISNT MUCH HELP.  THE MOST RECENT NAM AND
GFS FORECAST SOUNDS HAVE TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SLOWER WITH THE SATURATION WHICH COULD BE AN INDICATION THAT THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE. SREF MEMBERS ARE PRETTY MUCH SPLIT DOWN THE
MIDDLE. STILL EXPECT SOME STRATUS WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW BUT MAYBE
MORE PATCHY THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  WILL LOWER LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON TRENDS...DIPPING TO NEAR 20 IN THE NORTHEAST AND CLOSER
TO 30 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

AS FOR BLACK ICE...DESPITE A DAY OF GOOD MELTING TODAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING IS STILL THERE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL OF THE HARDEST HIT COUNTIES...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND FOR FORSYTH EAST TO FRANKLIN. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THAT GOT LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
COVER THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF BLACK ICE POTENTIAL.

FOR SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. LIKE TODAY...IF THERE IS
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...THE SUN COULD HELP WARM TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL TURN TO THE SW
AND BEGIN ADVECTING MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA AS THE 850MB RIDGE
MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...
THE SUBSEQUENT OVERRUNNING AND UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW REGARDING
WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE PRECIP START TIME
IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH...SAY A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH STILL FOR A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. EVEN IF THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY...THE QPF DURING THAT TIME WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IT`S
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVE/NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SE TOWARD THE REGION.
RAINFALL COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFT/EVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EXCITED ABOUT THAT POSSIBILITY THAN
THE ECMWF. THERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...AS
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS ANTICIPATED FROM 18Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH OF
A WARM NOSE ABOVE THE SURFACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ICE
NUCLEATION REGION THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES OR SO OVERNIGHT
INTO THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE BY MONDAY MORNING. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF CENTRAL
NC...WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES ACTUALLY ENDING WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW THE RAINFALL ALONG THE MAIN AXIS OF THE
FRONT DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FRONT BECOMING
ORIENTED MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFT/EVE.
DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS
IT SETTLES SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY BIG MARGIN FOR ERROR IN THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...

A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGER OVER
CENTRAL NC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFT/EVE AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS TIME...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
FROM NW TO SE AND WILL AGAIN LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LATE EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO POTENTIALLY THE LOW 50S NW TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
HABIT OF THE GFS TO BE A BIT ON THE FAST SIDE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FROPA TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL
RAINFALL. THE GFS BRINGS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL START AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY IN THE NW AND END AROUND 00Z FRIDAY IN THE SE AND DRYING
OUT EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (AS OF THE LATEST RUNS). TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THEY WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THAT BEING SAID HAVE HIGHS WED IN THE
UPPER 50S NW TO LOW 70S SE. LOWS WED NIGHT  AND HIGHS THURSDAY
PROBABLY A BIT TOO COOL...LOW 40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH AND
UPPER AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S SE...RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT A
COOL BUT DRY PERIOD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE A DECK OF STRATOCU TO
PROGRESS SWWD ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY 10Z...THE STRATOCU WILL LIKELY BE
BANKED UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND EXTEND BACK INTO THE TRIAD
REGION. THIS STRATOCU DECK SHOULD DIMINISH IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD
BY 14Z-15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS BETWEEN 10Z-18Z. THIS
FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH/BLS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 280545
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1245 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM FRIDAY...

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO START THE NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR AND
WINDS ARE EITHER LIGHT OR CALM.  REGIONAL RAOB ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODEST COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS (BELOW 850MB) AS ANOTHER
1040MB HIGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST STATES.  THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH SHOW RAPID MOISTENING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH
SATURATION REACHING UP TO AROUND -8C AND EVEN A LITTLE QPF VIA SOME
SHALLOW FGEN WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR.  THE
STRATUS WOULD ESSENTIALLY DEVELOP OVERHEAD...SO THE LACK OF CLOUDS
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER VA ISNT MUCH HELP.  THE MOST RECENT NAM AND
GFS FORECAST SOUNDS HAVE TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SLOWER WITH THE SATURATION WHICH COULD BE AN INDICATION THAT THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE. SREF MEMBERS ARE PRETTY MUCH SPLIT DOWN THE
MIDDLE. STILL EXPECT SOME STRATUS WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW BUT MAYBE
MORE PATCHY THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  WILL LOWER LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON TRENDS...DIPPING TO NEAR 20 IN THE NORTHEAST AND CLOSER
TO 30 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

AS FOR BLACK ICE...DESPITE A DAY OF GOOD MELTING TODAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING IS STILL THERE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL OF THE HARDEST HIT COUNTIES...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND FOR FORSYTH EAST TO FRANKLIN. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THAT GOT LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
COVER THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF BLACK ICE POTENTIAL.

FOR SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. LIKE TODAY...IF THERE IS
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...THE SUN COULD HELP WARM TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL TURN TO THE SW
AND BEGIN ADVECTING MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA AS THE 850MB RIDGE
MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...
THE SUBSEQUENT OVERRUNNING AND UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW REGARDING
WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE PRECIP START TIME
IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH...SAY A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH STILL FOR A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. EVEN IF THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY...THE QPF DURING THAT TIME WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IT`S
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVE/NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SE TOWARD THE REGION.
RAINFALL COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFT/EVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EXCITED ABOUT THAT POSSIBILITY THAN
THE ECMWF. THERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...AS
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS ANTICIPATED FROM 18Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH OF
A WARM NOSE ABOVE THE SURFACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ICE
NUCLEATION REGION THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES OR SO OVERNIGHT
INTO THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE BY MONDAY MORNING. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF CENTRAL
NC...WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES ACTUALLY ENDING WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW THE RAINFALL ALONG THE MAIN AXIS OF THE
FRONT DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FRONT BECOMING
ORIENTED MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFT/EVE.
DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS
IT SETTLES SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY BIG MARGIN FOR ERROR IN THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...

A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGER OVER
CENTRAL NC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFT/EVE AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS TIME...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
FROM NW TO SE AND WILL AGAIN LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LATE EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO POTENTIALLY THE LOW 50S NW TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
HABIT OF THE GFS TO BE A BIT ON THE FAST SIDE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FROPA TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL
RAINFALL. THE GFS BRINGS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL START AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY IN THE NW AND END AROUND 00Z FRIDAY IN THE SE AND DRYING
OUT EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (AS OF THE LATEST RUNS). TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THEY WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THAT BEING SAID HAVE HIGHS WED IN THE
UPPER 50S NW TO LOW 70S SE. LOWS WED NIGHT  AND HIGHS THURSDAY
PROBABLY A BIT TOO COOL...LOW 40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH AND
UPPER AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S SE...RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT A
COOL BUT DRY PERIOD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE A DECK OF STRATOCU TO
PROGRESS SWWD ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY 10Z...THE STRATOCU WILL LIKELY BE
BANKED UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND EXTEND BACK INTO THE TRIAD
REGION. THIS STRATOCU DECK SHOULD DIMINISH IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD
BY 14Z-15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS BETWEEN 10Z-18Z. THIS
FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH/BLS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 280545
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1245 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM FRIDAY...

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO START THE NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR AND
WINDS ARE EITHER LIGHT OR CALM.  REGIONAL RAOB ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODEST COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS (BELOW 850MB) AS ANOTHER
1040MB HIGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST STATES.  THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH SHOW RAPID MOISTENING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH
SATURATION REACHING UP TO AROUND -8C AND EVEN A LITTLE QPF VIA SOME
SHALLOW FGEN WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR.  THE
STRATUS WOULD ESSENTIALLY DEVELOP OVERHEAD...SO THE LACK OF CLOUDS
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER VA ISNT MUCH HELP.  THE MOST RECENT NAM AND
GFS FORECAST SOUNDS HAVE TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SLOWER WITH THE SATURATION WHICH COULD BE AN INDICATION THAT THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE. SREF MEMBERS ARE PRETTY MUCH SPLIT DOWN THE
MIDDLE. STILL EXPECT SOME STRATUS WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW BUT MAYBE
MORE PATCHY THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  WILL LOWER LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON TRENDS...DIPPING TO NEAR 20 IN THE NORTHEAST AND CLOSER
TO 30 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

AS FOR BLACK ICE...DESPITE A DAY OF GOOD MELTING TODAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING IS STILL THERE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL OF THE HARDEST HIT COUNTIES...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND FOR FORSYTH EAST TO FRANKLIN. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THAT GOT LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
COVER THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF BLACK ICE POTENTIAL.

FOR SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. LIKE TODAY...IF THERE IS
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...THE SUN COULD HELP WARM TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL TURN TO THE SW
AND BEGIN ADVECTING MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA AS THE 850MB RIDGE
MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...
THE SUBSEQUENT OVERRUNNING AND UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW REGARDING
WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE PRECIP START TIME
IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH...SAY A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH STILL FOR A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. EVEN IF THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY...THE QPF DURING THAT TIME WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IT`S
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVE/NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SE TOWARD THE REGION.
RAINFALL COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFT/EVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EXCITED ABOUT THAT POSSIBILITY THAN
THE ECMWF. THERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...AS
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS ANTICIPATED FROM 18Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH OF
A WARM NOSE ABOVE THE SURFACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ICE
NUCLEATION REGION THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES OR SO OVERNIGHT
INTO THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE BY MONDAY MORNING. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF CENTRAL
NC...WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES ACTUALLY ENDING WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW THE RAINFALL ALONG THE MAIN AXIS OF THE
FRONT DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FRONT BECOMING
ORIENTED MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFT/EVE.
DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS
IT SETTLES SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY BIG MARGIN FOR ERROR IN THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...

A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGER OVER
CENTRAL NC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFT/EVE AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS TIME...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
FROM NW TO SE AND WILL AGAIN LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LATE EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO POTENTIALLY THE LOW 50S NW TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
HABIT OF THE GFS TO BE A BIT ON THE FAST SIDE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FROPA TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL
RAINFALL. THE GFS BRINGS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL START AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY IN THE NW AND END AROUND 00Z FRIDAY IN THE SE AND DRYING
OUT EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (AS OF THE LATEST RUNS). TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THEY WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THAT BEING SAID HAVE HIGHS WED IN THE
UPPER 50S NW TO LOW 70S SE. LOWS WED NIGHT  AND HIGHS THURSDAY
PROBABLY A BIT TOO COOL...LOW 40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH AND
UPPER AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S SE...RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT A
COOL BUT DRY PERIOD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SATURDAY...

DEVELOPING NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE A DECK OF STRATOCU TO
PROGRESS SWWD ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. BY 10Z...THE STRATOCU WILL LIKELY BE
BANKED UP AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE AND EXTEND BACK INTO THE TRIAD
REGION. THIS STRATOCU DECK SHOULD DIMINISH IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD
BY 14Z-15Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRISK NE SFC WIND
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS BETWEEN 10Z-18Z. THIS
FLOW WILL DEPOSIT A COLD DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SLY FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE COLD
STABLE AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE WILL PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
A AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN AS
SFC TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY-EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL LAST LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...AND THE LEAST IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH/BLS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 280257
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
950 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM FRIDAY...

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO START THE NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR AND
WINDS ARE EITHER LIGHT OR CALM.  REGIONAL RAOB ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODEST COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS (BELOW 850MB) AS ANOTHER
1040MB HIGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST STATES.  THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH SHOW RAPID MOISTENING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH
SATURATION REACHING UP TO AROUND -8C AND EVEN A LITTLE QPF VIA SOME
SHALLOW FGEN WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR.  THE
STRATUS WOULD ESSENTIALLY DEVELOP OVERHEAD...SO THE LACK OF CLOUDS
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER VA ISNT MUCH HELP.  THE MOST RECENT NAM AND
GFS FORECAST SOUNDS HAVE TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SLOWER WITH THE SATURATION WHICH COULD BE AN INDICATION THAT THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE. SREF MEMBERS ARE PRETTY MUCH SPLIT DOWN THE
MIDDLE. STILL EXPECT SOME STRATUS WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW BUT MAYBE
MORE PATCHY THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  WILL LOWER LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON TRENDS...DIPPING TO NEAR 20 IN THE NORTHEAST AND CLOSER
TO 30 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

AS FOR BLACK ICE...DESPITE A DAY OF GOOD MELTING TODAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING IS STILL THERE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL OF THE HARDEST HIT COUNTIES...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND FOR FORSYTH EAST TO FRANKLIN. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THAT GOT LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
COVER THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF BLACK ICE POTENTIAL.

FOR SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. LIKE TODAY...IF THERE IS
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...THE SUN COULD HELP WARM TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL TURN TO THE SW
AND BEGIN ADVECTING MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA AS THE 850MB RIDGE
MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...
THE SUBSEQUENT OVERRUNNING AND UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW REGARDING
WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE PRECIP START TIME
IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH...SAY A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH STILL FOR A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. EVEN IF THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY...THE QPF DURING THAT TIME WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IT`S
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVE/NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SE TOWARD THE REGION.
RAINFALL COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFT/EVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EXCITED ABOUT THAT POSSIBILITY THAN
THE ECMWF. THERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...AS
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS ANTICIPATED FROM 18Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH OF
A WARM NOSE ABOVE THE SURFACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ICE
NUCLEATION REGION THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES OR SO OVERNIGHT
INTO THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE BY MONDAY MORNING. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF CENTRAL
NC...WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES ACTUALLY ENDING WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW THE RAINFALL ALONG THE MAIN AXIS OF THE
FRONT DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FRONT BECOMING
ORIENTED MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFT/EVE.
DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS
IT SETTLES SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY BIG MARGIN FOR ERROR IN THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...

A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGER OVER
CENTRAL NC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFT/EVE AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS TIME...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
FROM NW TO SE AND WILL AGAIN LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LATE EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO POTENTIALLY THE LOW 50S NW TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
HABIT OF THE GFS TO BE A BIT ON THE FAST SIDE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FROPA TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL
RAINFALL. THE GFS BRINGS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL START AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY IN THE NW AND END AROUND 00Z FRIDAY IN THE SE AND DRYING
OUT EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (AS OF THE LATEST RUNS). TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THEY WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THAT BEING SAID HAVE HIGHS WED IN THE
UPPER 50S NW TO LOW 70S SE. LOWS WED NIGHT  AND HIGHS THURSDAY
PROBABLY A BIT TOO COOL...LOW 40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH AND
UPPER AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S SE...RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT A
COOL BUT DRY PERIOD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED EVERYWHERE AS OF 00Z
THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT AS 1040-1045 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD
FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SUB-VFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AT
MOST TERMINALS...ASIDE FROM INT/GSO WHERE MVFR CEILINGS COULD
POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT (05Z) SUN MORNING AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. PRECIP THAT FALLS BETWEEN 06-15Z SUN WOULD PREDOMINATELY
FALL AS SLEET/FZRA. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD
OF TIME MON THROUGH MON EVENING AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER... SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO RETURN LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACKING NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH/BLS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 280257
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
950 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM FRIDAY...

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO START THE NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR AND
WINDS ARE EITHER LIGHT OR CALM.  REGIONAL RAOB ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODEST COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS (BELOW 850MB) AS ANOTHER
1040MB HIGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST STATES.  THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH SHOW RAPID MOISTENING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH
SATURATION REACHING UP TO AROUND -8C AND EVEN A LITTLE QPF VIA SOME
SHALLOW FGEN WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR.  THE
STRATUS WOULD ESSENTIALLY DEVELOP OVERHEAD...SO THE LACK OF CLOUDS
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER VA ISNT MUCH HELP.  THE MOST RECENT NAM AND
GFS FORECAST SOUNDS HAVE TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SLOWER WITH THE SATURATION WHICH COULD BE AN INDICATION THAT THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE. SREF MEMBERS ARE PRETTY MUCH SPLIT DOWN THE
MIDDLE. STILL EXPECT SOME STRATUS WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW BUT MAYBE
MORE PATCHY THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  WILL LOWER LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON TRENDS...DIPPING TO NEAR 20 IN THE NORTHEAST AND CLOSER
TO 30 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

AS FOR BLACK ICE...DESPITE A DAY OF GOOD MELTING TODAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING IS STILL THERE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL OF THE HARDEST HIT COUNTIES...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND FOR FORSYTH EAST TO FRANKLIN. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THAT GOT LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
COVER THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF BLACK ICE POTENTIAL.

FOR SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. LIKE TODAY...IF THERE IS
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...THE SUN COULD HELP WARM TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL TURN TO THE SW
AND BEGIN ADVECTING MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA AS THE 850MB RIDGE
MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...
THE SUBSEQUENT OVERRUNNING AND UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW REGARDING
WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE PRECIP START TIME
IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH...SAY A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH STILL FOR A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. EVEN IF THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY...THE QPF DURING THAT TIME WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IT`S
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVE/NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SE TOWARD THE REGION.
RAINFALL COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFT/EVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EXCITED ABOUT THAT POSSIBILITY THAN
THE ECMWF. THERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...AS
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS ANTICIPATED FROM 18Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH OF
A WARM NOSE ABOVE THE SURFACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ICE
NUCLEATION REGION THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES OR SO OVERNIGHT
INTO THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE BY MONDAY MORNING. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF CENTRAL
NC...WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES ACTUALLY ENDING WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW THE RAINFALL ALONG THE MAIN AXIS OF THE
FRONT DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FRONT BECOMING
ORIENTED MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFT/EVE.
DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS
IT SETTLES SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY BIG MARGIN FOR ERROR IN THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...

A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGER OVER
CENTRAL NC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFT/EVE AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS TIME...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
FROM NW TO SE AND WILL AGAIN LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LATE EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO POTENTIALLY THE LOW 50S NW TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
HABIT OF THE GFS TO BE A BIT ON THE FAST SIDE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FROPA TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL
RAINFALL. THE GFS BRINGS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL START AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY IN THE NW AND END AROUND 00Z FRIDAY IN THE SE AND DRYING
OUT EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (AS OF THE LATEST RUNS). TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THEY WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THAT BEING SAID HAVE HIGHS WED IN THE
UPPER 50S NW TO LOW 70S SE. LOWS WED NIGHT  AND HIGHS THURSDAY
PROBABLY A BIT TOO COOL...LOW 40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH AND
UPPER AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S SE...RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT A
COOL BUT DRY PERIOD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED EVERYWHERE AS OF 00Z
THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT AS 1040-1045 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD
FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SUB-VFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AT
MOST TERMINALS...ASIDE FROM INT/GSO WHERE MVFR CEILINGS COULD
POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT (05Z) SUN MORNING AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. PRECIP THAT FALLS BETWEEN 06-15Z SUN WOULD PREDOMINATELY
FALL AS SLEET/FZRA. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD
OF TIME MON THROUGH MON EVENING AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER... SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO RETURN LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACKING NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH/BLS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 280257
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
950 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM FRIDAY...

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO START THE NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR AND
WINDS ARE EITHER LIGHT OR CALM.  REGIONAL RAOB ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODEST COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS (BELOW 850MB) AS ANOTHER
1040MB HIGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST STATES.  THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH SHOW RAPID MOISTENING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH
SATURATION REACHING UP TO AROUND -8C AND EVEN A LITTLE QPF VIA SOME
SHALLOW FGEN WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR.  THE
STRATUS WOULD ESSENTIALLY DEVELOP OVERHEAD...SO THE LACK OF CLOUDS
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER VA ISNT MUCH HELP.  THE MOST RECENT NAM AND
GFS FORECAST SOUNDS HAVE TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SLOWER WITH THE SATURATION WHICH COULD BE AN INDICATION THAT THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE. SREF MEMBERS ARE PRETTY MUCH SPLIT DOWN THE
MIDDLE. STILL EXPECT SOME STRATUS WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW BUT MAYBE
MORE PATCHY THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  WILL LOWER LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON TRENDS...DIPPING TO NEAR 20 IN THE NORTHEAST AND CLOSER
TO 30 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

AS FOR BLACK ICE...DESPITE A DAY OF GOOD MELTING TODAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING IS STILL THERE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL OF THE HARDEST HIT COUNTIES...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND FOR FORSYTH EAST TO FRANKLIN. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THAT GOT LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
COVER THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF BLACK ICE POTENTIAL.

FOR SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. LIKE TODAY...IF THERE IS
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...THE SUN COULD HELP WARM TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL TURN TO THE SW
AND BEGIN ADVECTING MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA AS THE 850MB RIDGE
MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...
THE SUBSEQUENT OVERRUNNING AND UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW REGARDING
WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE PRECIP START TIME
IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH...SAY A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH STILL FOR A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. EVEN IF THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY...THE QPF DURING THAT TIME WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IT`S
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVE/NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SE TOWARD THE REGION.
RAINFALL COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFT/EVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EXCITED ABOUT THAT POSSIBILITY THAN
THE ECMWF. THERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...AS
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS ANTICIPATED FROM 18Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH OF
A WARM NOSE ABOVE THE SURFACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ICE
NUCLEATION REGION THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES OR SO OVERNIGHT
INTO THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE BY MONDAY MORNING. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF CENTRAL
NC...WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES ACTUALLY ENDING WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW THE RAINFALL ALONG THE MAIN AXIS OF THE
FRONT DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FRONT BECOMING
ORIENTED MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFT/EVE.
DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS
IT SETTLES SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY BIG MARGIN FOR ERROR IN THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...

A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGER OVER
CENTRAL NC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFT/EVE AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS TIME...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
FROM NW TO SE AND WILL AGAIN LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LATE EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO POTENTIALLY THE LOW 50S NW TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
HABIT OF THE GFS TO BE A BIT ON THE FAST SIDE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FROPA TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL
RAINFALL. THE GFS BRINGS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL START AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY IN THE NW AND END AROUND 00Z FRIDAY IN THE SE AND DRYING
OUT EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (AS OF THE LATEST RUNS). TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THEY WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THAT BEING SAID HAVE HIGHS WED IN THE
UPPER 50S NW TO LOW 70S SE. LOWS WED NIGHT  AND HIGHS THURSDAY
PROBABLY A BIT TOO COOL...LOW 40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH AND
UPPER AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S SE...RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT A
COOL BUT DRY PERIOD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED EVERYWHERE AS OF 00Z
THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT AS 1040-1045 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD
FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SUB-VFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AT
MOST TERMINALS...ASIDE FROM INT/GSO WHERE MVFR CEILINGS COULD
POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT (05Z) SUN MORNING AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. PRECIP THAT FALLS BETWEEN 06-15Z SUN WOULD PREDOMINATELY
FALL AS SLEET/FZRA. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD
OF TIME MON THROUGH MON EVENING AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER... SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO RETURN LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACKING NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH/BLS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 280257
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
950 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM FRIDAY...

GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO START THE NIGHT AS SKIES ARE CLEAR AND
WINDS ARE EITHER LIGHT OR CALM.  REGIONAL RAOB ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODEST COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS (BELOW 850MB) AS ANOTHER
1040MB HIGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST STATES.  THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH SHOW RAPID MOISTENING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH
SATURATION REACHING UP TO AROUND -8C AND EVEN A LITTLE QPF VIA SOME
SHALLOW FGEN WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION.
HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR.  THE
STRATUS WOULD ESSENTIALLY DEVELOP OVERHEAD...SO THE LACK OF CLOUDS
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER VA ISNT MUCH HELP.  THE MOST RECENT NAM AND
GFS FORECAST SOUNDS HAVE TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SLOWER WITH THE SATURATION WHICH COULD BE AN INDICATION THAT THEY
HAVE BEEN OVERDONE. SREF MEMBERS ARE PRETTY MUCH SPLIT DOWN THE
MIDDLE. STILL EXPECT SOME STRATUS WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW BUT MAYBE
MORE PATCHY THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  WILL LOWER LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO BASED ON TRENDS...DIPPING TO NEAR 20 IN THE NORTHEAST AND CLOSER
TO 30 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

AS FOR BLACK ICE...DESPITE A DAY OF GOOD MELTING TODAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING IS STILL THERE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL OF THE HARDEST HIT COUNTIES...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND FOR FORSYTH EAST TO FRANKLIN. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THAT GOT LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
COVER THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF BLACK ICE POTENTIAL.

FOR SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. LIKE TODAY...IF THERE IS
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...THE SUN COULD HELP WARM TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL TURN TO THE SW
AND BEGIN ADVECTING MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA AS THE 850MB RIDGE
MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...
THE SUBSEQUENT OVERRUNNING AND UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW REGARDING
WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE PRECIP START TIME
IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH...SAY A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH STILL FOR A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. EVEN IF THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY...THE QPF DURING THAT TIME WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IT`S
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVE/NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SE TOWARD THE REGION.
RAINFALL COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFT/EVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EXCITED ABOUT THAT POSSIBILITY THAN
THE ECMWF. THERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...AS
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS ANTICIPATED FROM 18Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH OF
A WARM NOSE ABOVE THE SURFACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ICE
NUCLEATION REGION THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES OR SO OVERNIGHT
INTO THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE BY MONDAY MORNING. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF CENTRAL
NC...WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES ACTUALLY ENDING WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW THE RAINFALL ALONG THE MAIN AXIS OF THE
FRONT DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FRONT BECOMING
ORIENTED MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFT/EVE.
DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS
IT SETTLES SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY BIG MARGIN FOR ERROR IN THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...

A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGER OVER
CENTRAL NC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFT/EVE AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS TIME...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
FROM NW TO SE AND WILL AGAIN LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LATE EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO POTENTIALLY THE LOW 50S NW TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
HABIT OF THE GFS TO BE A BIT ON THE FAST SIDE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FROPA TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL
RAINFALL. THE GFS BRINGS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL START AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY IN THE NW AND END AROUND 00Z FRIDAY IN THE SE AND DRYING
OUT EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (AS OF THE LATEST RUNS). TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THEY WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THAT BEING SAID HAVE HIGHS WED IN THE
UPPER 50S NW TO LOW 70S SE. LOWS WED NIGHT  AND HIGHS THURSDAY
PROBABLY A BIT TOO COOL...LOW 40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH AND
UPPER AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S SE...RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT A
COOL BUT DRY PERIOD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED EVERYWHERE AS OF 00Z
THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT AS 1040-1045 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD
FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SUB-VFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AT
MOST TERMINALS...ASIDE FROM INT/GSO WHERE MVFR CEILINGS COULD
POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT (05Z) SUN MORNING AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. PRECIP THAT FALLS BETWEEN 06-15Z SUN WOULD PREDOMINATELY
FALL AS SLEET/FZRA. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD
OF TIME MON THROUGH MON EVENING AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER... SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO RETURN LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACKING NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH/BLS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 272350
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
650 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...

TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY TODAY (CURRENTLY 50 AT KPOB) ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THAT RECEIVED LITTLE OR NO SNOW...WHILE A SHIELD
OF STRATOCU AROUND 5K FT THIS MORNING OVER OUR SNOW-COVERED COUNTIES
LIMITED THE SUNSHINE THRU MID-DAY...WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING TO
AROUND 40 BY 18Z. SINCE THEN...TEMPS THERE HAVE INCREASED A FEW MORE
DEGREES AFTER THE STRATOCU BROKE UP TO JUST CU.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT AND USHER IN A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE BL WINDS SHIFT TO NE AND INCREASE
LATER THIS EVENING...WE`LL SEE FALLING TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE
IN THE LOWEST 4K FT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LOW STRATUS DECK
FORMING AND EXPANDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS EVEN TRY TO CREATE A FEW PATCHES
OF FLURRIES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE,
THE DEPTH OF THIS LAYER SEEMS TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE PRECIP. WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

AS FOR BLACK ICE...DESPITE A DAY OF GOOD MELTING TODAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING IS STILL THERE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL OF THE HARDEST HIT COUNTIES...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND FOR FORSYTH EAST TO FRANKLIN. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THAT GOT LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
COVER THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF BLACK ICE POTENTIAL.

FOR SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. LIKE TODAY...IF THERE IS
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...THE SUN COULD HELP WARM TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL TURN TO THE SW
AND BEGIN ADVECTING MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA AS THE 850MB RIDGE
MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...
THE SUBSEQUENT OVERRUNNING AND UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW REGARDING
WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE PRECIP START TIME
IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH...SAY A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH STILL FOR A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. EVEN IF THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY...THE QPF DURING THAT TIME WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IT`S
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVE/NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SE TOWARD THE REGION.
RAINFALL COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFT/EVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EXCITED ABOUT THAT POSSIBILITY THAN
THE ECMWF. THERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...AS
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS ANTICIPATED FROM 18Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH OF
A WARM NOSE ABOVE THE SURFACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ICE
NUCLEATION REGION THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES OR SO OVERNIGHT
INTO THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE BY MONDAY MORNING. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF CENTRAL
NC...WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES ACTUALLY ENDING WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW THE RAINFALL ALONG THE MAIN AXIS OF THE
FRONT DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FRONT BECOMING
ORIENTED MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFT/EVE.
DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS
IT SETTLES SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY BIG MARGIN FOR ERROR IN THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...

A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGER OVER
CENTRAL NC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFT/EVE AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS TIME...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
FROM NW TO SE AND WILL AGAIN LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LATE EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO POTENTIALLY THE LOW 50S NW TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
HABIT OF THE GFS TO BE A BIT ON THE FAST SIDE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FROPA TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL
RAINFALL. THE GFS BRINGS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL START AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY IN THE NW AND END AROUND 00Z FRIDAY IN THE SE AND DRYING
OUT EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (AS OF THE LATEST RUNS). TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THEY WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THAT BEING SAID HAVE HIGHS WED IN THE
UPPER 50S NW TO LOW 70S SE. LOWS WED NIGHT  AND HIGHS THURSDAY
PROBABLY A BIT TOO COOL...LOW 40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH AND
UPPER AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S SE...RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT A
COOL BUT DRY PERIOD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED EVERYWHERE AS OF 00Z
THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT AS 1040-1045 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD
FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SUB-VFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AT
MOST TERMINALS...ASIDE FROM INT/GSO WHERE MVFR CEILINGS COULD
POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT (05Z) SUN MORNING AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. PRECIP THAT FALLS BETWEEN 06-15Z SUN WOULD PREDOMINATELY
FALL AS SLEET/FZRA. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD
OF TIME MON THROUGH MON EVENING AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER... SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO RETURN LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACKING NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 272350
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
650 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...

TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY TODAY (CURRENTLY 50 AT KPOB) ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THAT RECEIVED LITTLE OR NO SNOW...WHILE A SHIELD
OF STRATOCU AROUND 5K FT THIS MORNING OVER OUR SNOW-COVERED COUNTIES
LIMITED THE SUNSHINE THRU MID-DAY...WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING TO
AROUND 40 BY 18Z. SINCE THEN...TEMPS THERE HAVE INCREASED A FEW MORE
DEGREES AFTER THE STRATOCU BROKE UP TO JUST CU.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT AND USHER IN A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE BL WINDS SHIFT TO NE AND INCREASE
LATER THIS EVENING...WE`LL SEE FALLING TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE
IN THE LOWEST 4K FT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LOW STRATUS DECK
FORMING AND EXPANDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS EVEN TRY TO CREATE A FEW PATCHES
OF FLURRIES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE,
THE DEPTH OF THIS LAYER SEEMS TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE PRECIP. WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

AS FOR BLACK ICE...DESPITE A DAY OF GOOD MELTING TODAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING IS STILL THERE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL OF THE HARDEST HIT COUNTIES...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND FOR FORSYTH EAST TO FRANKLIN. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THAT GOT LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
COVER THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF BLACK ICE POTENTIAL.

FOR SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. LIKE TODAY...IF THERE IS
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...THE SUN COULD HELP WARM TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL TURN TO THE SW
AND BEGIN ADVECTING MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA AS THE 850MB RIDGE
MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...
THE SUBSEQUENT OVERRUNNING AND UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW REGARDING
WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE PRECIP START TIME
IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH...SAY A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH STILL FOR A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. EVEN IF THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY...THE QPF DURING THAT TIME WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IT`S
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVE/NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SE TOWARD THE REGION.
RAINFALL COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFT/EVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EXCITED ABOUT THAT POSSIBILITY THAN
THE ECMWF. THERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...AS
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS ANTICIPATED FROM 18Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH OF
A WARM NOSE ABOVE THE SURFACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ICE
NUCLEATION REGION THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES OR SO OVERNIGHT
INTO THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE BY MONDAY MORNING. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF CENTRAL
NC...WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES ACTUALLY ENDING WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW THE RAINFALL ALONG THE MAIN AXIS OF THE
FRONT DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FRONT BECOMING
ORIENTED MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFT/EVE.
DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS
IT SETTLES SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY BIG MARGIN FOR ERROR IN THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...

A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGER OVER
CENTRAL NC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFT/EVE AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS TIME...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
FROM NW TO SE AND WILL AGAIN LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LATE EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO POTENTIALLY THE LOW 50S NW TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
HABIT OF THE GFS TO BE A BIT ON THE FAST SIDE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FROPA TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL
RAINFALL. THE GFS BRINGS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL START AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY IN THE NW AND END AROUND 00Z FRIDAY IN THE SE AND DRYING
OUT EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (AS OF THE LATEST RUNS). TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THEY WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THAT BEING SAID HAVE HIGHS WED IN THE
UPPER 50S NW TO LOW 70S SE. LOWS WED NIGHT  AND HIGHS THURSDAY
PROBABLY A BIT TOO COOL...LOW 40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH AND
UPPER AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S SE...RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT A
COOL BUT DRY PERIOD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED EVERYWHERE AS OF 00Z
THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT AS 1040-1045 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD
FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SUB-VFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AT
MOST TERMINALS...ASIDE FROM INT/GSO WHERE MVFR CEILINGS COULD
POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT (05Z) SUN MORNING AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. PRECIP THAT FALLS BETWEEN 06-15Z SUN WOULD PREDOMINATELY
FALL AS SLEET/FZRA. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD
OF TIME MON THROUGH MON EVENING AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER... SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO RETURN LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACKING NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 272350
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
650 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...

TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY TODAY (CURRENTLY 50 AT KPOB) ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THAT RECEIVED LITTLE OR NO SNOW...WHILE A SHIELD
OF STRATOCU AROUND 5K FT THIS MORNING OVER OUR SNOW-COVERED COUNTIES
LIMITED THE SUNSHINE THRU MID-DAY...WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING TO
AROUND 40 BY 18Z. SINCE THEN...TEMPS THERE HAVE INCREASED A FEW MORE
DEGREES AFTER THE STRATOCU BROKE UP TO JUST CU.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT AND USHER IN A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE BL WINDS SHIFT TO NE AND INCREASE
LATER THIS EVENING...WE`LL SEE FALLING TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE
IN THE LOWEST 4K FT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LOW STRATUS DECK
FORMING AND EXPANDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS EVEN TRY TO CREATE A FEW PATCHES
OF FLURRIES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE,
THE DEPTH OF THIS LAYER SEEMS TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE PRECIP. WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

AS FOR BLACK ICE...DESPITE A DAY OF GOOD MELTING TODAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING IS STILL THERE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL OF THE HARDEST HIT COUNTIES...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND FOR FORSYTH EAST TO FRANKLIN. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THAT GOT LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
COVER THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF BLACK ICE POTENTIAL.

FOR SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. LIKE TODAY...IF THERE IS
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...THE SUN COULD HELP WARM TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL TURN TO THE SW
AND BEGIN ADVECTING MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA AS THE 850MB RIDGE
MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...
THE SUBSEQUENT OVERRUNNING AND UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW REGARDING
WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE PRECIP START TIME
IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH...SAY A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH STILL FOR A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. EVEN IF THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY...THE QPF DURING THAT TIME WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IT`S
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVE/NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SE TOWARD THE REGION.
RAINFALL COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFT/EVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EXCITED ABOUT THAT POSSIBILITY THAN
THE ECMWF. THERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...AS
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS ANTICIPATED FROM 18Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH OF
A WARM NOSE ABOVE THE SURFACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ICE
NUCLEATION REGION THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES OR SO OVERNIGHT
INTO THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE BY MONDAY MORNING. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF CENTRAL
NC...WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES ACTUALLY ENDING WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW THE RAINFALL ALONG THE MAIN AXIS OF THE
FRONT DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FRONT BECOMING
ORIENTED MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFT/EVE.
DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS
IT SETTLES SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY BIG MARGIN FOR ERROR IN THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...

A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGER OVER
CENTRAL NC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFT/EVE AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS TIME...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
FROM NW TO SE AND WILL AGAIN LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LATE EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO POTENTIALLY THE LOW 50S NW TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
HABIT OF THE GFS TO BE A BIT ON THE FAST SIDE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FROPA TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL
RAINFALL. THE GFS BRINGS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL START AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY IN THE NW AND END AROUND 00Z FRIDAY IN THE SE AND DRYING
OUT EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (AS OF THE LATEST RUNS). TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THEY WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THAT BEING SAID HAVE HIGHS WED IN THE
UPPER 50S NW TO LOW 70S SE. LOWS WED NIGHT  AND HIGHS THURSDAY
PROBABLY A BIT TOO COOL...LOW 40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH AND
UPPER AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S SE...RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT A
COOL BUT DRY PERIOD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED EVERYWHERE AS OF 00Z
THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT AS 1040-1045 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD
FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SUB-VFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AT
MOST TERMINALS...ASIDE FROM INT/GSO WHERE MVFR CEILINGS COULD
POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT (05Z) SUN MORNING AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. PRECIP THAT FALLS BETWEEN 06-15Z SUN WOULD PREDOMINATELY
FALL AS SLEET/FZRA. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD
OF TIME MON THROUGH MON EVENING AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER... SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO RETURN LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACKING NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 272350
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
650 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...

TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY TODAY (CURRENTLY 50 AT KPOB) ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THAT RECEIVED LITTLE OR NO SNOW...WHILE A SHIELD
OF STRATOCU AROUND 5K FT THIS MORNING OVER OUR SNOW-COVERED COUNTIES
LIMITED THE SUNSHINE THRU MID-DAY...WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING TO
AROUND 40 BY 18Z. SINCE THEN...TEMPS THERE HAVE INCREASED A FEW MORE
DEGREES AFTER THE STRATOCU BROKE UP TO JUST CU.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT AND USHER IN A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE BL WINDS SHIFT TO NE AND INCREASE
LATER THIS EVENING...WE`LL SEE FALLING TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE
IN THE LOWEST 4K FT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LOW STRATUS DECK
FORMING AND EXPANDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS EVEN TRY TO CREATE A FEW PATCHES
OF FLURRIES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE,
THE DEPTH OF THIS LAYER SEEMS TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE PRECIP. WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

AS FOR BLACK ICE...DESPITE A DAY OF GOOD MELTING TODAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING IS STILL THERE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL OF THE HARDEST HIT COUNTIES...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND FOR FORSYTH EAST TO FRANKLIN. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THAT GOT LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
COVER THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF BLACK ICE POTENTIAL.

FOR SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. LIKE TODAY...IF THERE IS
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...THE SUN COULD HELP WARM TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL TURN TO THE SW
AND BEGIN ADVECTING MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA AS THE 850MB RIDGE
MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...
THE SUBSEQUENT OVERRUNNING AND UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW REGARDING
WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE PRECIP START TIME
IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH...SAY A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH STILL FOR A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. EVEN IF THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY...THE QPF DURING THAT TIME WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IT`S
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVE/NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SE TOWARD THE REGION.
RAINFALL COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFT/EVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EXCITED ABOUT THAT POSSIBILITY THAN
THE ECMWF. THERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...AS
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS ANTICIPATED FROM 18Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH OF
A WARM NOSE ABOVE THE SURFACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ICE
NUCLEATION REGION THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES OR SO OVERNIGHT
INTO THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE BY MONDAY MORNING. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF CENTRAL
NC...WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES ACTUALLY ENDING WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW THE RAINFALL ALONG THE MAIN AXIS OF THE
FRONT DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FRONT BECOMING
ORIENTED MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFT/EVE.
DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS
IT SETTLES SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY BIG MARGIN FOR ERROR IN THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...

A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGER OVER
CENTRAL NC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFT/EVE AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS TIME...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
FROM NW TO SE AND WILL AGAIN LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LATE EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO POTENTIALLY THE LOW 50S NW TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
HABIT OF THE GFS TO BE A BIT ON THE FAST SIDE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FROPA TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL
RAINFALL. THE GFS BRINGS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL START AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY IN THE NW AND END AROUND 00Z FRIDAY IN THE SE AND DRYING
OUT EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (AS OF THE LATEST RUNS). TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THEY WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THAT BEING SAID HAVE HIGHS WED IN THE
UPPER 50S NW TO LOW 70S SE. LOWS WED NIGHT  AND HIGHS THURSDAY
PROBABLY A BIT TOO COOL...LOW 40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH AND
UPPER AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S SE...RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT A
COOL BUT DRY PERIOD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM FRIDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED EVERYWHERE AS OF 00Z
THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT AS 1040-1045 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD
FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SUB-VFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AT
MOST TERMINALS...ASIDE FROM INT/GSO WHERE MVFR CEILINGS COULD
POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT (05Z) SUN MORNING AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. PRECIP THAT FALLS BETWEEN 06-15Z SUN WOULD PREDOMINATELY
FALL AS SLEET/FZRA. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD
OF TIME MON THROUGH MON EVENING AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES INTO
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER... SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO RETURN LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACKING NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 272031
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...

TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY TODAY (CURRENTLY 50 AT KPOB) ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THAT RECEIVED LITTLE OR NO SNOW...WHILE A SHIELD
OF STRATOCU AROUND 5K FT THIS MORNING OVER OUR SNOW-COVERED COUNTIES
LIMITED THE SUNSHINE THRU MID-DAY...WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING TO
AROUND 40 BY 18Z. SINCE THEN...TEMPS THERE HAVE INCREASED A FEW MORE
DEGREES AFTER THE STRATOCU BROKE UP TO JUST CU.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT AND USHER IN A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE BL WINDS SHIFT TO NE AND INCREASE
LATER THIS EVENING...WE`LL SEE FALLING TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE
IN THE LOWEST 4K FT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LOW STRATUS DECK
FORMING AND EXPANDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS EVEN TRY TO CREATE A FEW PATCHES
OF FLURRIES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE,
THE DEPTH OF THIS LAYER SEEMS TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE PRECIP. WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

AS FOR BLACK ICE...DESPITE A DAY OF GOOD MELTING TODAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING IS STILL THERE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL OF THE HARDEST HIT COUNTIES...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND FOR FORSYTH EAST TO FRANKLIN. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THAT GOT LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
COVER THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF BLACK ICE POTENTIAL.

FOR SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. LIKE TODAY...IF THERE IS
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...THE SUN COULD HELP WARM TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL TURN TO THE SW
AND BEGIN ADVECTING MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA AS THE 850MB RIDGE
MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...
THE SUBSEQUENT OVERRUNNING AND UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW REGARDING
WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE PRECIP START TIME
IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH...SAY A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH STILL FOR A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. EVEN IF THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY...THE QPF DURING THAT TIME WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IT`S
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVE/NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SE TOWARD THE REGION.
RAINFALL COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFT/EVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EXCITED ABOUT THAT POSSIBILITY THAN
THE ECMWF. THERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...AS
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS ANTICIPATED FROM 18Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH OF
A WARM NOSE ABOVE THE SURFACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ICE
NUCLEATION REGION THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES OR SO OVERNIGHT
INTO THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE BY MONDAY MORNING. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF CENTRAL
NC...WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES ACTUALLY ENDING WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW THE RAINFALL ALONG THE MAIN AXIS OF THE
FRONT DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FRONT BECOMING
ORIENTED MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFT/EVE.
DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS
IT SETTLES SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY BIG MARGIN FOR ERROR IN THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...

A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGER OVER
CENTRAL NC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFT/EVE AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS TIME...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
FROM NW TO SE AND WILL AGAIN LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LATE EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO POTENTIALLY THE LOW 50S NW TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
HABIT OF THE GFS TO BE A BIT ON THE FAST SIDE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FROPA TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL
RAINFALL. THE GFS BRINGS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL START AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY IN THE NW AND END AROUND 00Z FRIDAY IN THE SE AND DRYING
OUT EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (AS OF THE LATEST RUNS). TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THEY WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THAT BEING SAID HAVE HIGHS WED IN THE
UPPER 50S NW TO LOW 70S SE. LOWS WED NIGHT  AND HIGHS THURSDAY
PROBABLY A BIT TOO COOL...LOW 40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH AND
UPPER AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S SE...RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT A
COOL BUT DRY PERIOD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...

THROUGH 00Z SAT...EXPECTED A BAND OF STRATOCU WITH BASES AROUND 5K
FT ACROSS THE TRIAD AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT REGION...AND SCATTERED CU
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT REGION.  LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

00Z-12Z SAT...LOW LEVEL WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND INCREASE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL ADVECT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BENEATH THE INVERSION.  THAT...IN COMBINATION
WITH SNOW COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. IT WILL DEVELOP FIRST
NEAR KRWI (SHORTLY AFTER 00Z)...THEN EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST
OVERNIGHT. LOOKS FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL OF OUR
TAF SITES (KINT, KGSO, KRDU, KFAY, AND KRWI) DURING THIS TIME.

12Z-18Z SAT...GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT AFT SUNRISE...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z.

AFT 18Z SAT...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN RETURNING TO MVFR OR WORSE FROM EARLY
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP DEVELOP AHEAD OF...
THEN ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM AND IT`S SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 272010
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...

TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY TODAY (CURRENTLY 50 AT KPOB) ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THAT RECEIVED LITTLE OR NO SNOW...WHILE A SHIELD
OF STRATOCU AROUND 5K FT OVER OUR SNOW-COVERED COUNTIES LIMITED THE
SUNSHINE...WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING TO AROUND 40 SO FAR.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT AND USHER IN A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE BL WINDS SHIFT TO NE AND INCREASE
LATER THIS EVENING...WE`LL SEE FALLING TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE
IN THE LOWEST 4K FT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LOW STRATUS DECK
FORMING AND EXPANDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS EVEN TRY TO CREATE A FEW PATCHES
OF FLURRIES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE,
THE DEPTH OF THIS LAYER SEEMS TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE PRECIP. WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

AS FOR BLACK ICE...DESPITE A DAY OF GOOD MELTING TODAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING IS STILL THERE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL OF THE HARDEST HIT COUNTIES...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND FOR FORSYTH EAST TO FRANKLIN. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THAT GOT LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
COVER THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF BLACK ICE POTENTIAL.

FOR SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. LIKE TODAY...IF THERE IS
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...THE SUN COULD HELP WARM TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL TURN TO THE SW
AND BEGIN ADVECTING MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA AS THE 850MB RIDGE
MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...
THE SUBSEQUENT OVERRUNNING AND UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW REGARDING
WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE PRECIP START TIME
IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH...SAY A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH STILL FOR A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. EVEN IF THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY...THE QPF DURING THAT TIME WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IT`S
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVE/NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SE TOWARD THE REGION.
RAINFALL COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFT/EVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EXCITED ABOUT THAT POSSIBILITY THAN
THE ECMWF. THERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...AS
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS ANTICIPATED FROM 18Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH OF
A WARM NOSE ABOVE THE SURFACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ICE
NUCLEATION REGION THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES OR SO OVERNIGHT
INTO THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE BY MONDAY MORNING. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF CENTRAL
NC...WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES ACTUALLY ENDING WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW THE RAINFALL ALONG THE MAIN AXIS OF THE
FRONT DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FRONT BECOMING
ORIENTED MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFT/EVE.
DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS
IT SETTLES SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY BIG MARGIN FOR ERROR IN THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...

A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGER OVER
CENTRAL NC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFT/EVE AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS TIME...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
FROM NW TO SE AND WILL AGAIN LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LATE EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO POTENTIALLY THE LOW 50S NW TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
HABIT OF THE GFS TO BE A BIT ON THE FAST SIDE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FROPA TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL
RAINFALL. THE GFS BRINGS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL START AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY IN THE NW AND END AROUND 00Z FRIDAY IN THE SE AND DRYING
OUT EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (AS OF THE LATEST RUNS). TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THEY WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THAT BEING SAID HAVE HIGHS WED IN THE
UPPER 50S NW TO LOW 70S SE. LOWS WED NIGHT  AND HIGHS THURSDAY
PROBABLY A BIT TOO COOL...LOW 40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH AND
UPPER AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S SE...RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT A
COOL BUT DRY PERIOD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...

THROUGH 00Z SAT...EXPECTED A BAND OF STRATOCU WITH BASES AROUND 5K
FT ACROSS THE TRIAD AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT REGION...AND SCATTERED CU
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT REGION.  LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

00Z-12Z SAT...LOW LEVEL WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND INCREASE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL ADVECT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BENEATH THE INVERSION.  THAT...IN COMBINATION
WITH SNOW COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. IT WILL DEVELOP FIRST
NEAR KRWI (SHORTLY AFTER 00Z)...THEN EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST
OVERNIGHT. LOOKS FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL OF OUR
TAF SITES (KINT, KGSO, KRDU, KFAY, AND KRWI) DURING THIS TIME.

12Z-18Z SAT...GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT AFT SUNRISE...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z.

AFT 18Z SAT...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN RETURNING TO MVFR OR WORSE FROM EARLY
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP DEVELOP AHEAD OF...
THEN ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM AND IT`S SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 272010
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...

TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY TODAY (CURRENTLY 50 AT KPOB) ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THAT RECEIVED LITTLE OR NO SNOW...WHILE A SHIELD
OF STRATOCU AROUND 5K FT OVER OUR SNOW-COVERED COUNTIES LIMITED THE
SUNSHINE...WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING TO AROUND 40 SO FAR.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT AND USHER IN A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE BL WINDS SHIFT TO NE AND INCREASE
LATER THIS EVENING...WE`LL SEE FALLING TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE
IN THE LOWEST 4K FT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LOW STRATUS DECK
FORMING AND EXPANDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS EVEN TRY TO CREATE A FEW PATCHES
OF FLURRIES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE,
THE DEPTH OF THIS LAYER SEEMS TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE PRECIP. WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

AS FOR BLACK ICE...DESPITE A DAY OF GOOD MELTING TODAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING IS STILL THERE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL OF THE HARDEST HIT COUNTIES...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND FOR FORSYTH EAST TO FRANKLIN. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THAT GOT LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
COVER THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF BLACK ICE POTENTIAL.

FOR SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. LIKE TODAY...IF THERE IS
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...THE SUN COULD HELP WARM TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL TURN TO THE SW
AND BEGIN ADVECTING MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA AS THE 850MB RIDGE
MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...
THE SUBSEQUENT OVERRUNNING AND UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW REGARDING
WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE PRECIP START TIME
IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH...SAY A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH STILL FOR A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. EVEN IF THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY...THE QPF DURING THAT TIME WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IT`S
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVE/NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SE TOWARD THE REGION.
RAINFALL COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFT/EVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EXCITED ABOUT THAT POSSIBILITY THAN
THE ECMWF. THERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...AS
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS ANTICIPATED FROM 18Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH OF
A WARM NOSE ABOVE THE SURFACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ICE
NUCLEATION REGION THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES OR SO OVERNIGHT
INTO THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE BY MONDAY MORNING. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF CENTRAL
NC...WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES ACTUALLY ENDING WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW THE RAINFALL ALONG THE MAIN AXIS OF THE
FRONT DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FRONT BECOMING
ORIENTED MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFT/EVE.
DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS
IT SETTLES SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY BIG MARGIN FOR ERROR IN THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...

A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY TUESDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LINGER OVER
CENTRAL NC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.
SUBSEQUENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT...WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFT/EVE AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES IS FAIRLY LOW
AT THIS TIME...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
FROM NW TO SE AND WILL AGAIN LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE LATE EVENING
BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO POTENTIALLY THE LOW 50S NW TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES SE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND GIVEN THE
HABIT OF THE GFS TO BE A BIT ON THE FAST SIDE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SLOWER SIDE OF THE FROPA TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL
RAINFALL. THE GFS BRINGS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE NW PIEDMONT
AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL START AROUND 00Z
THURSDAY IN THE NW AND END AROUND 00Z FRIDAY IN THE SE AND DRYING
OUT EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON (AS OF THE LATEST RUNS). TEMPS
CONTINUE TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE AS THEY WILL DEPEND STRONGLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH THAT BEING SAID HAVE HIGHS WED IN THE
UPPER 50S NW TO LOW 70S SE. LOWS WED NIGHT  AND HIGHS THURSDAY
PROBABLY A BIT TOO COOL...LOW 40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH AND
UPPER AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S SE...RESPECTIVELY. EXPECT A
COOL BUT DRY PERIOD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
AROUND 30 DEGREES AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...

THROUGH 00Z SAT...EXPECTED A BAND OF STRATOCU WITH BASES AROUND 5K
FT ACROSS THE TRIAD AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT REGION...AND SCATTERED CU
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT REGION.  LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

00Z-12Z SAT...LOW LEVEL WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND INCREASE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL ADVECT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BENEATH THE INVERSION.  THAT...IN COMBINATION
WITH SNOW COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. IT WILL DEVELOP FIRST
NEAR KRWI (SHORTLY AFTER 00Z)...THEN EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST
OVERNIGHT. LOOKS FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL OF OUR
TAF SITES (KINT, KGSO, KRDU, KFAY, AND KRWI) DURING THIS TIME.

12Z-18Z SAT...GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT AFT SUNRISE...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z.

AFT 18Z SAT...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN RETURNING TO MVFR OR WORSE FROM EARLY
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP DEVELOP AHEAD OF...
THEN ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM AND IT`S SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 271959
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
259 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...

TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY TODAY (CURRENTLY 50 AT KPOB) ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THAT RECEIVED LITTLE OR NO SNOW...WHILE A SHIELD
OF STRATOCU AROUND 5K FT OVER OUR SNOW-COVERED COUNTIES LIMITED THE
SUNSHINE...WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING TO AROUND 40 SO FAR.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT AND USHER IN A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE BL WINDS SHIFT TO NE AND INCREASE
LATER THIS EVENING...WE`LL SEE FALLING TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE
IN THE LOWEST 4K FT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LOW STRATUS DECK
FORMING AND EXPANDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS EVEN TRY TO CREATE A FEW PATCHES
OF FLURRIES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE,
THE DEPTH OF THIS LAYER SEEMS TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE PRECIP. WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

AS FOR BLACK ICE...DESPITE A DAY OF GOOD MELTING TODAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING IS STILL THERE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL OF THE HARDEST HIT COUNTIES...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND FOR FORSYTH EAST TO FRANKLIN. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THAT GOT LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
COVER THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF BLACK ICE POTENTIAL.

FOR SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. LIKE TODAY...IF THERE IS
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...THE SUN COULD HELP WARM TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL TURN TO THE SW
AND BEGIN ADVECTING MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA AS THE 850MB RIDGE
MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...
THE SUBSEQUENT OVERRUNNING AND UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW REGARDING
WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE PRECIP START TIME
IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH...SAY A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH STILL FOR A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. EVEN IF THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY...THE QPF DURING THAT TIME WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IT`S
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVE/NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SE TOWARD THE REGION.
RAINFALL COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFT/EVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EXCITED ABOUT THAT POSSIBILITY THAN
THE ECMWF. THERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...AS
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS ANTICIPATED FROM 18Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH OF
A WARM NOSE ABOVE THE SURFACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ICE
NUCLEATION REGION THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES OR SO OVERNIGHT
INTO THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE BY MONDAY MORNING. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF CENTRAL
NC...WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES ACTUALLY ENDING WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW THE RAINFALL ALONG THE MAIN AXIS OF THE
FRONT DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FRONT BECOMING
ORIENTED MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFT/EVE.
DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS
IT SETTLES SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY BIG MARGIN FOR ERROR IN THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE FRONT SETTLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE... MID
LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO DISAGREE WITH HOW QUICKLY WE WILL SEE A MOISTENING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA... POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER CAD AIRMASS. GIVEN WPC CONTINUES TO TREND
TOWARDS THE WETTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE... WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY... WITH A CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIP (WHICH IS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GFS). GIVEN THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND GO WITH HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY RANDING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S SE... WITH LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

AS THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST... EXPECT ANY LINGERING CAD AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO ERODE. THUS...
LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD OCCUR EARLY IN
THE NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLE RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT GET THAT
DETAILED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST AT THAT TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OVER
IF WE WILL SEE A CAD AIRMASS EVEN DEVELOP. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED NEXT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PARALLE TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WITH
ALONG WITH A GOOD TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WE COULD
SEE DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS WEDNESDAY (MAINLY NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY... AT THIS TIME) INTO THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION... TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND QUITE
NICELY (WITH THE CAD AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ERODE PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT EVEN IN THE NW) TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NW TO THE
LOWER TO MAYBE EVEN MID 70S SE. HIGHS AND LOWS ON THURSDAY WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...

THROUGH 00Z SAT...EXPECTED A BAND OF STRATOCU WITH BASES AROUND 5K
FT ACROSS THE TRIAD AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT REGION...AND SCATTERED CU
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT REGION.  LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

00Z-12Z SAT...LOW LEVEL WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND INCREASE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL ADVECT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BENEATH THE INVERSION.  THAT...IN COMBINATION
WITH SNOW COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. IT WILL DEVELOP FIRST
NEAR KRWI (SHORTLY AFTER 00Z)...THEN EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST
OVERNIGHT. LOOKS FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL OF OUR
TAF SITES (KINT, KGSO, KRDU, KFAY, AND KRWI) DURING THIS TIME.

12Z-18Z SAT...GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT AFT SUNRISE...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z.

AFT 18Z SAT...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN RETURNING TO MVFR OR WORSE FROM EARLY
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP DEVELOP AHEAD OF...
THEN ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM AND IT`S SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 271959
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
259 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...

TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY TODAY (CURRENTLY 50 AT KPOB) ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THAT RECEIVED LITTLE OR NO SNOW...WHILE A SHIELD
OF STRATOCU AROUND 5K FT OVER OUR SNOW-COVERED COUNTIES LIMITED THE
SUNSHINE...WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING TO AROUND 40 SO FAR.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT AND USHER IN A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE BL WINDS SHIFT TO NE AND INCREASE
LATER THIS EVENING...WE`LL SEE FALLING TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE
IN THE LOWEST 4K FT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LOW STRATUS DECK
FORMING AND EXPANDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS EVEN TRY TO CREATE A FEW PATCHES
OF FLURRIES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE,
THE DEPTH OF THIS LAYER SEEMS TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE PRECIP. WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

AS FOR BLACK ICE...DESPITE A DAY OF GOOD MELTING TODAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING IS STILL THERE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL OF THE HARDEST HIT COUNTIES...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND FOR FORSYTH EAST TO FRANKLIN. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THAT GOT LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
COVER THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF BLACK ICE POTENTIAL.

FOR SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. LIKE TODAY...IF THERE IS
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...THE SUN COULD HELP WARM TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL TURN TO THE SW
AND BEGIN ADVECTING MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA AS THE 850MB RIDGE
MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...
THE SUBSEQUENT OVERRUNNING AND UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW REGARDING
WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE PRECIP START TIME
IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH...SAY A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH STILL FOR A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. EVEN IF THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY...THE QPF DURING THAT TIME WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IT`S
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTHEAST
WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S NW TO MID 40S SE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY EVE/NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SE TOWARD THE REGION.
RAINFALL COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFT/EVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE OVERRUNS THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT MORE EXCITED ABOUT THAT POSSIBILITY THAN
THE ECMWF. THERE WILL HOPEFULLY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...AS
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE IS ANTICIPATED FROM 18Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH OF
A WARM NOSE ABOVE THE SURFACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ICE
NUCLEATION REGION THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES OR SO OVERNIGHT
INTO THE UPPER 30S NW TO MID 40S SE BY MONDAY MORNING. BY SUNRISE
MONDAY THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF CENTRAL
NC...WITH THE BEST RAINFALL CHANCES ACTUALLY ENDING WELL AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE MODELS SHOW THE RAINFALL ALONG THE MAIN AXIS OF THE
FRONT DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND THE FRONT BECOMING
ORIENTED MORE WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY AFT/EVE.
DIFFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS
IT SETTLES SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY BIG MARGIN FOR ERROR IN THE
MAX AND MIN TEMPS AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 50 DEGREES NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH AND LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE FRONT SETTLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE... MID
LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO DISAGREE WITH HOW QUICKLY WE WILL SEE A MOISTENING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA... POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER CAD AIRMASS. GIVEN WPC CONTINUES TO TREND
TOWARDS THE WETTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE... WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY... WITH A CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIP (WHICH IS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GFS). GIVEN THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND GO WITH HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY RANDING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S SE... WITH LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

AS THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST... EXPECT ANY LINGERING CAD AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO ERODE. THUS...
LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD OCCUR EARLY IN
THE NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLE RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT GET THAT
DETAILED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST AT THAT TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OVER
IF WE WILL SEE A CAD AIRMASS EVEN DEVELOP. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED NEXT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PARALLE TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WITH
ALONG WITH A GOOD TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WE COULD
SEE DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS WEDNESDAY (MAINLY NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY... AT THIS TIME) INTO THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION... TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND QUITE
NICELY (WITH THE CAD AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ERODE PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT EVEN IN THE NW) TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NW TO THE
LOWER TO MAYBE EVEN MID 70S SE. HIGHS AND LOWS ON THURSDAY WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...

THROUGH 00Z SAT...EXPECTED A BAND OF STRATOCU WITH BASES AROUND 5K
FT ACROSS THE TRIAD AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT REGION...AND SCATTERED CU
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT REGION.  LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

00Z-12Z SAT...LOW LEVEL WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND INCREASE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL ADVECT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BENEATH THE INVERSION.  THAT...IN COMBINATION
WITH SNOW COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. IT WILL DEVELOP FIRST
NEAR KRWI (SHORTLY AFTER 00Z)...THEN EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST
OVERNIGHT. LOOKS FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL OF OUR
TAF SITES (KINT, KGSO, KRDU, KFAY, AND KRWI) DURING THIS TIME.

12Z-18Z SAT...GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT AFT SUNRISE...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z.

AFT 18Z SAT...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN RETURNING TO MVFR OR WORSE FROM EARLY
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP DEVELOP AHEAD OF...
THEN ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM AND IT`S SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 271951
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...

TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY TODAY (CURRENTLY 50 AT KPOB) ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THAT RECEIVED LITTLE OR NO SNOW...WHILE A SHIELD
OF STRATOCU AROUND 5K FT OVER OUR SNOW-COVERED COUNTIES LIMITED THE
SUNSHINE...WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING TO AROUND 40 SO FAR.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT AND USHER IN A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE BL WINDS SHIFT TO NE AND INCREASE
LATER THIS EVENING...WE`LL SEE FALLING TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE
IN THE LOWEST 4K FT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LOW STRATUS DECK
FORMING AND EXPANDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS EVEN TRY TO CREATE A FEW PATCHES
OF FLURRIES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE,
THE DEPTH OF THIS LAYER SEEMS TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE PRECIP. WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

AS FOR BLACK ICE...DESPITE A DAY OF GOOD MELTING TODAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING IS STILL THERE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL OF THE HARDEST HIT COUNTIES...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND FOR FORSYTH EAST TO FRANKLIN. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THAT GOT LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
COVER THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF BLACK ICE POTENTIAL.

FOR SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. LIKE TODAY...IF THERE IS
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...THE SUN COULD HELP WARM TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL TURN TO THE SW
AND BEGIN ADVECTING MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA AS THE 850MB RIDGE
MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...
THE SUBSEQUENT OVERRUNNING AND UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW REGARDING
WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE PRECIP START TIME
IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH...SAY A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH STILL FOR A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. EVEN IF THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY...THE QPF DURING THAT TIME WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IT`S
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A QUICK MOVING S/W DISTURBANCE
MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION... WITH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM... A MOIST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ATOP A DEPOSITED COLD SURFACE
AIRMASS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY... WITH PRECIP
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATEST
NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN BRING PRECIP IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. IF THIS INDEED OCCURRED THEN WE MAY HAVE
SOME P-TYPE ISSUES (GENERALLY SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN) ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF REMAINING DRY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA... WILL ONLY SHOW A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (CHILLY RAIN THOUGH).
NONETHELESS...  WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK INTO THE
AREA AFTER IT MOVES OFFSHORE ALONG WITH SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS
AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON EXPECT SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY LOWER PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS
YIELDS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
SE.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... HELPING TO SOUR OUT ANY COLD AIR DAMMING
AIRMASS THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER... AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXPECT WE WILL SEE POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLY A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ON  MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS AND HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY AND
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF THE CAD AND HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER. LOW TEMPS MONDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S (WITH A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS A LINGERING CAD BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE FRONT SETTLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE... MID
LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO DISAGREE WITH HOW QUICKLY WE WILL SEE A MOISTENING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA... POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER CAD AIRMASS. GIVEN WPC CONTINUES TO TREND
TOWARDS THE WETTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE... WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY... WITH A CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIP (WHICH IS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GFS). GIVEN THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND GO WITH HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY RANDING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S SE... WITH LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

AS THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST... EXPECT ANY LINGERING CAD AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO ERODE. THUS...
LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD OCCUR EARLY IN
THE NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLE RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT GET THAT
DETAILED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST AT THAT TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OVER
IF WE WILL SEE A CAD AIRMASS EVEN DEVELOP. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED NEXT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PARALLE TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WITH
ALONG WITH A GOOD TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WE COULD
SEE DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS WEDNESDAY (MAINLY NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY... AT THIS TIME) INTO THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION... TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND QUITE
NICELY (WITH THE CAD AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ERODE PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT EVEN IN THE NW) TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NW TO THE
LOWER TO MAYBE EVEN MID 70S SE. HIGHS AND LOWS ON THURSDAY WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...

THROUGH 00Z SAT...EXPECTED A BAND OF STRATOCU WITH BASES AROUND 5K
FT ACROSS THE TRIAD AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT REGION...AND SCATTERED CU
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT REGION.  LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

00Z-12Z SAT...LOW LEVEL WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND INCREASE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL ADVECT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BENEATH THE INVERSION.  THAT...IN COMBINATION
WITH SNOW COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. IT WILL DEVELOP FIRST
NEAR KRWI (SHORTLY AFTER 00Z)...THEN EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST
OVERNIGHT. LOOKS FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL OF OUR
TAF SITES (KINT, KGSO, KRDU, KFAY, AND KRWI) DURING THIS TIME.

12Z-18Z SAT...GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT AFT SUNRISE...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z.

AFT 18Z SAT...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN RETURNING TO MVFR OR WORSE FROM EARLY
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP DEVELOP AHEAD OF...
THEN ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM AND IT`S SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 271951
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...

TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY TODAY (CURRENTLY 50 AT KPOB) ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THAT RECEIVED LITTLE OR NO SNOW...WHILE A SHIELD
OF STRATOCU AROUND 5K FT OVER OUR SNOW-COVERED COUNTIES LIMITED THE
SUNSHINE...WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING TO AROUND 40 SO FAR.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT AND USHER IN A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE BL WINDS SHIFT TO NE AND INCREASE
LATER THIS EVENING...WE`LL SEE FALLING TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE
IN THE LOWEST 4K FT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LOW STRATUS DECK
FORMING AND EXPANDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS EVEN TRY TO CREATE A FEW PATCHES
OF FLURRIES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE,
THE DEPTH OF THIS LAYER SEEMS TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE PRECIP. WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

AS FOR BLACK ICE...DESPITE A DAY OF GOOD MELTING TODAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING IS STILL THERE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL OF THE HARDEST HIT COUNTIES...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND FOR FORSYTH EAST TO FRANKLIN. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THAT GOT LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
COVER THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF BLACK ICE POTENTIAL.

FOR SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. LIKE TODAY...IF THERE IS
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...THE SUN COULD HELP WARM TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL TURN TO THE SW
AND BEGIN ADVECTING MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA AS THE 850MB RIDGE
MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...
THE SUBSEQUENT OVERRUNNING AND UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW REGARDING
WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE PRECIP START TIME
IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH...SAY A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH STILL FOR A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. EVEN IF THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY...THE QPF DURING THAT TIME WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IT`S
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A QUICK MOVING S/W DISTURBANCE
MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION... WITH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM... A MOIST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ATOP A DEPOSITED COLD SURFACE
AIRMASS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY... WITH PRECIP
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATEST
NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN BRING PRECIP IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. IF THIS INDEED OCCURRED THEN WE MAY HAVE
SOME P-TYPE ISSUES (GENERALLY SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN) ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF REMAINING DRY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA... WILL ONLY SHOW A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (CHILLY RAIN THOUGH).
NONETHELESS...  WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK INTO THE
AREA AFTER IT MOVES OFFSHORE ALONG WITH SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS
AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON EXPECT SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY LOWER PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS
YIELDS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
SE.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... HELPING TO SOUR OUT ANY COLD AIR DAMMING
AIRMASS THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER... AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXPECT WE WILL SEE POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLY A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ON  MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS AND HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY AND
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF THE CAD AND HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER. LOW TEMPS MONDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S (WITH A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS A LINGERING CAD BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE FRONT SETTLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE... MID
LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO DISAGREE WITH HOW QUICKLY WE WILL SEE A MOISTENING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA... POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER CAD AIRMASS. GIVEN WPC CONTINUES TO TREND
TOWARDS THE WETTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE... WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY... WITH A CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIP (WHICH IS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GFS). GIVEN THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND GO WITH HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY RANDING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S SE... WITH LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

AS THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST... EXPECT ANY LINGERING CAD AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO ERODE. THUS...
LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD OCCUR EARLY IN
THE NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLE RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT GET THAT
DETAILED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST AT THAT TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OVER
IF WE WILL SEE A CAD AIRMASS EVEN DEVELOP. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED NEXT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PARALLE TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WITH
ALONG WITH A GOOD TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WE COULD
SEE DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS WEDNESDAY (MAINLY NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY... AT THIS TIME) INTO THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION... TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND QUITE
NICELY (WITH THE CAD AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ERODE PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT EVEN IN THE NW) TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NW TO THE
LOWER TO MAYBE EVEN MID 70S SE. HIGHS AND LOWS ON THURSDAY WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...

THROUGH 00Z SAT...EXPECTED A BAND OF STRATOCU WITH BASES AROUND 5K
FT ACROSS THE TRIAD AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT REGION...AND SCATTERED CU
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT REGION.  LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

00Z-12Z SAT...LOW LEVEL WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND INCREASE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL ADVECT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BENEATH THE INVERSION.  THAT...IN COMBINATION
WITH SNOW COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. IT WILL DEVELOP FIRST
NEAR KRWI (SHORTLY AFTER 00Z)...THEN EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST
OVERNIGHT. LOOKS FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL OF OUR
TAF SITES (KINT, KGSO, KRDU, KFAY, AND KRWI) DURING THIS TIME.

12Z-18Z SAT...GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT AFT SUNRISE...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z.

AFT 18Z SAT...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN RETURNING TO MVFR OR WORSE FROM EARLY
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP DEVELOP AHEAD OF...
THEN ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM AND IT`S SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 271951
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...

TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY TODAY (CURRENTLY 50 AT KPOB) ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THAT RECEIVED LITTLE OR NO SNOW...WHILE A SHIELD
OF STRATOCU AROUND 5K FT OVER OUR SNOW-COVERED COUNTIES LIMITED THE
SUNSHINE...WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING TO AROUND 40 SO FAR.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT AND USHER IN A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE BL WINDS SHIFT TO NE AND INCREASE
LATER THIS EVENING...WE`LL SEE FALLING TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE
IN THE LOWEST 4K FT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LOW STRATUS DECK
FORMING AND EXPANDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS EVEN TRY TO CREATE A FEW PATCHES
OF FLURRIES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE,
THE DEPTH OF THIS LAYER SEEMS TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE PRECIP. WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

AS FOR BLACK ICE...DESPITE A DAY OF GOOD MELTING TODAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING IS STILL THERE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL OF THE HARDEST HIT COUNTIES...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND FOR FORSYTH EAST TO FRANKLIN. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THAT GOT LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
COVER THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF BLACK ICE POTENTIAL.

FOR SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. LIKE TODAY...IF THERE IS
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...THE SUN COULD HELP WARM TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL TURN TO THE SW
AND BEGIN ADVECTING MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA AS THE 850MB RIDGE
MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...
THE SUBSEQUENT OVERRUNNING AND UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW REGARDING
WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE PRECIP START TIME
IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH...SAY A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH STILL FOR A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. EVEN IF THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY...THE QPF DURING THAT TIME WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IT`S
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A QUICK MOVING S/W DISTURBANCE
MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION... WITH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM... A MOIST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ATOP A DEPOSITED COLD SURFACE
AIRMASS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY... WITH PRECIP
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATEST
NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN BRING PRECIP IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. IF THIS INDEED OCCURRED THEN WE MAY HAVE
SOME P-TYPE ISSUES (GENERALLY SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN) ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF REMAINING DRY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA... WILL ONLY SHOW A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (CHILLY RAIN THOUGH).
NONETHELESS...  WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK INTO THE
AREA AFTER IT MOVES OFFSHORE ALONG WITH SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS
AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON EXPECT SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY LOWER PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS
YIELDS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
SE.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... HELPING TO SOUR OUT ANY COLD AIR DAMMING
AIRMASS THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER... AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXPECT WE WILL SEE POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLY A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ON  MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS AND HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY AND
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF THE CAD AND HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER. LOW TEMPS MONDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S (WITH A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS A LINGERING CAD BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE FRONT SETTLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE... MID
LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO DISAGREE WITH HOW QUICKLY WE WILL SEE A MOISTENING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA... POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER CAD AIRMASS. GIVEN WPC CONTINUES TO TREND
TOWARDS THE WETTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE... WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY... WITH A CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIP (WHICH IS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GFS). GIVEN THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND GO WITH HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY RANDING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S SE... WITH LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

AS THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST... EXPECT ANY LINGERING CAD AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO ERODE. THUS...
LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD OCCUR EARLY IN
THE NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLE RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT GET THAT
DETAILED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST AT THAT TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OVER
IF WE WILL SEE A CAD AIRMASS EVEN DEVELOP. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED NEXT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PARALLE TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WITH
ALONG WITH A GOOD TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WE COULD
SEE DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS WEDNESDAY (MAINLY NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY... AT THIS TIME) INTO THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION... TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND QUITE
NICELY (WITH THE CAD AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ERODE PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT EVEN IN THE NW) TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NW TO THE
LOWER TO MAYBE EVEN MID 70S SE. HIGHS AND LOWS ON THURSDAY WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...

THROUGH 00Z SAT...EXPECTED A BAND OF STRATOCU WITH BASES AROUND 5K
FT ACROSS THE TRIAD AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT REGION...AND SCATTERED CU
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT REGION.  LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

00Z-12Z SAT...LOW LEVEL WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND INCREASE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL ADVECT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BENEATH THE INVERSION.  THAT...IN COMBINATION
WITH SNOW COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. IT WILL DEVELOP FIRST
NEAR KRWI (SHORTLY AFTER 00Z)...THEN EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST
OVERNIGHT. LOOKS FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL OF OUR
TAF SITES (KINT, KGSO, KRDU, KFAY, AND KRWI) DURING THIS TIME.

12Z-18Z SAT...GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT AFT SUNRISE...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z.

AFT 18Z SAT...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN RETURNING TO MVFR OR WORSE FROM EARLY
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP DEVELOP AHEAD OF...
THEN ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM AND IT`S SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 271951
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...

TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY TODAY (CURRENTLY 50 AT KPOB) ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THAT RECEIVED LITTLE OR NO SNOW...WHILE A SHIELD
OF STRATOCU AROUND 5K FT OVER OUR SNOW-COVERED COUNTIES LIMITED THE
SUNSHINE...WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING TO AROUND 40 SO FAR.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT AND USHER IN A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. AFTER THE BL WINDS SHIFT TO NE AND INCREASE
LATER THIS EVENING...WE`LL SEE FALLING TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE
IN THE LOWEST 4K FT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LOW STRATUS DECK
FORMING AND EXPANDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS EVEN TRY TO CREATE A FEW PATCHES
OF FLURRIES OVERNIGHT WHEN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR
ARRIVES. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IMPRESSIVE,
THE DEPTH OF THIS LAYER SEEMS TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE PRECIP. WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 20S.

AS FOR BLACK ICE...DESPITE A DAY OF GOOD MELTING TODAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING IS STILL THERE FOR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH
OFFICIALS FROM SEVERAL OF THE HARDEST HIT COUNTIES...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR TONIGHT FOR OUR VA BORDER
COUNTIES...AND FOR FORSYTH EAST TO FRANKLIN. WE WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES THAT GOT LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
COVER THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF BLACK ICE POTENTIAL.

FOR SATURDAY...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER WITH BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. LIKE TODAY...IF THERE IS
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FORECAST...THE SUN COULD HELP WARM TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...FLOW IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER WILL TURN TO THE SW
AND BEGIN ADVECTING MOISTURE UP INTO OUR AREA AS THE 850MB RIDGE
MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY.
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDING FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA...
THE SUBSEQUENT OVERRUNNING AND UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS RIGHT NOW REGARDING
WHEN PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT THE PRECIP START TIME
IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE IF IT STARTS EARLY ENOUGH...SAY A FEW HOURS
EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH STILL FOR A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP. EVEN IF THE
EARLIER SOLUTIONS WERE TO VERIFY...THE QPF DURING THAT TIME WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT...SO LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE EXPECTED. IT`S
DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A QUICK MOVING S/W DISTURBANCE
MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION... WITH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM... A MOIST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ATOP A DEPOSITED COLD SURFACE
AIRMASS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY... WITH PRECIP
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATEST
NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN BRING PRECIP IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. IF THIS INDEED OCCURRED THEN WE MAY HAVE
SOME P-TYPE ISSUES (GENERALLY SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN) ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF REMAINING DRY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA... WILL ONLY SHOW A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (CHILLY RAIN THOUGH).
NONETHELESS...  WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK INTO THE
AREA AFTER IT MOVES OFFSHORE ALONG WITH SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS
AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON EXPECT SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY LOWER PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS
YIELDS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
SE.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... HELPING TO SOUR OUT ANY COLD AIR DAMMING
AIRMASS THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER... AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXPECT WE WILL SEE POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLY A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ON  MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS AND HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY AND
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF THE CAD AND HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER. LOW TEMPS MONDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S (WITH A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS A LINGERING CAD BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE FRONT SETTLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE... MID
LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO DISAGREE WITH HOW QUICKLY WE WILL SEE A MOISTENING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA... POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER CAD AIRMASS. GIVEN WPC CONTINUES TO TREND
TOWARDS THE WETTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE... WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY... WITH A CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIP (WHICH IS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GFS). GIVEN THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND GO WITH HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY RANDING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S SE... WITH LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

AS THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST... EXPECT ANY LINGERING CAD AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO ERODE. THUS...
LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD OCCUR EARLY IN
THE NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLE RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT GET THAT
DETAILED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST AT THAT TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OVER
IF WE WILL SEE A CAD AIRMASS EVEN DEVELOP. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED NEXT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PARALLE TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WITH
ALONG WITH A GOOD TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WE COULD
SEE DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS WEDNESDAY (MAINLY NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY... AT THIS TIME) INTO THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION... TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND QUITE
NICELY (WITH THE CAD AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ERODE PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT EVEN IN THE NW) TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NW TO THE
LOWER TO MAYBE EVEN MID 70S SE. HIGHS AND LOWS ON THURSDAY WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...

THROUGH 00Z SAT...EXPECTED A BAND OF STRATOCU WITH BASES AROUND 5K
FT ACROSS THE TRIAD AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT REGION...AND SCATTERED CU
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT REGION.  LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

00Z-12Z SAT...LOW LEVEL WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND INCREASE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL ADVECT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BENEATH THE INVERSION.  THAT...IN COMBINATION
WITH SNOW COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. IT WILL DEVELOP FIRST
NEAR KRWI (SHORTLY AFTER 00Z)...THEN EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST
OVERNIGHT. LOOKS FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL OF OUR
TAF SITES (KINT, KGSO, KRDU, KFAY, AND KRWI) DURING THIS TIME.

12Z-18Z SAT...GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT AFT SUNRISE...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z.

AFT 18Z SAT...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN RETURNING TO MVFR OR WORSE FROM EARLY
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP DEVELOP AHEAD OF...
THEN ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM AND IT`S SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
BLACK ICE FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>026-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 271730
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1230 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE
SOME STRATUS IS DELAYING WARMING. EVEN IN THAT AREA...THERE ARE ONLY
A FEW SITES STILL REPORTING 31 OR 32 DEGREES...THUS WE LET THE WSW
FOR BLACK ICE EXPIRE ON TIME AT 10 AM.

LATEST VIS SATELLITE SHOWS STATUS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.  WHERE SKIES ARE
CLEAR...THE TEMP QUICKLY CLIMBED AFTER SUNRISE...AND HAS ALREADY
REACHED THE LOWER 40S ACROSS OUR SE ZONES. AS SUCH...FOR OUR NEXT
PRODUCT UPDATE WE`LL BUMP UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS OUR SE ZONES...AND PERHAPS LOWER A DEGREE OR SO ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRATUS.  OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND THE
PREV NEAR-TERM DISC PROVIDED BELOW FOR REFERENCE.

PREV NEAR TERM DISC AS OF 300 AM...FAST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN
A DECK OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION  WHILE THE APPROACH OF A
S/W CROSSING THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AS
WELL. LIFT APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION THOUGH COULD SEE A POCKET OF DRIZZLE OR SNOW
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE TAIL END OF THE S/W CROSSES OUR
REGION.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES THIS AFTERNOON AVERAGE 50-60M BELOW
AVERAGE...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
FEBRUARY. FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

THE AFOREMENTIONED S/W WILL USHER A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS SFC
FEATURE WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER. EXPECT SOME MINOR
DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING TOTALLY CLEAR
SKIES. THICKNESSES IN THE 1260-1265M RANGE HISTORICALLY SUGGEST MIN
TEMPS CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES. FAVOR THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE VERSUS THE
WARMER MET.

SATURDAY...1040+MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL NOSE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS DRY AIR RIDGE AND ACCOMPANYING
850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. FAVOR THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE THOUGH IF PEEKS OF SUN MORE
PREVALENT THEN CURRENT THINKING...AFTERNOON TEMPS COULD END UP BEING
3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING/APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST-SW SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE DRY AIR SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT STILL MAINTAIN A PRESENCE ACROSS OUR REGION. MOS
GUIDANCE...MAINLY THE MAV...APPEARS TOO COLD CONSIDERING THE
INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE. WHILE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LIFT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. MIN TEMPS
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 NE TO THE MID 20S FAR SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A QUICK MOVING S/W DISTURBANCE
MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION... WITH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM... A MOIST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ATOP A DEPOSITED COLD SURFACE
AIRMASS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY... WITH PRECIP
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATEST
NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN BRING PRECIP IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. IF THIS INDEED OCCURRED THEN WE MAY HAVE
SOME P-TYPE ISSUES (GENERALLY SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN) ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF REMAINING DRY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA... WILL ONLY SHOW A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (CHILLY RAIN THOUGH).
NONETHELESS...  WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK INTO THE
AREA AFTER IT MOVES OFFSHORE ALONG WITH SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS
AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON EXPECT SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY LOWER PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS
YIELDS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
SE.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... HELPING TO SOUR OUT ANY COLD AIR DAMMING
AIRMASS THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER... AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXPECT WE WILL SEE POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLY A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ON  MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS AND HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY AND
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF THE CAD AND HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER. LOW TEMPS MONDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S (WITH A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS A LINGERING CAD BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE FRONT SETTLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE... MID
LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO DISAGREE WITH HOW QUICKLY WE WILL SEE A MOISTENING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA... POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER CAD AIRMASS. GIVEN WPC CONTINUES TO TREND
TOWARDS THE WETTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE... WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY... WITH A CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIP (WHICH IS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GFS). GIVEN THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND GO WITH HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY RANDING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S SE... WITH LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

AS THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST... EXPECT ANY LINGERING CAD AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO ERODE. THUS...
LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD OCCUR EARLY IN
THE NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLE RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT GET THAT
DETAILED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST AT THAT TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OVER
IF WE WILL SEE A CAD AIRMASS EVEN DEVELOP. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED NEXT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PARALLE TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WITH
ALONG WITH A GOOD TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WE COULD
SEE DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS WEDNESDAY (MAINLY NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY... AT THIS TIME) INTO THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION... TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND QUITE
NICELY (WITH THE CAD AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ERODE PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT EVEN IN THE NW) TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NW TO THE
LOWER TO MAYBE EVEN MID 70S SE. HIGHS AND LOWS ON THURSDAY WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...

THROUGH 00Z SAT...EXPECTED A BAND OF STRATOCU WITH BASES AROUND 5K
FT ACROSS THE TRIAD AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT REGION...AND SCATTERED CU
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT REGION.  LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

00Z-12Z SAT...LOW LEVEL WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND INCREASE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL ADVECT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BENEATH THE INVERSION.  THAT...IN COMBINATION
WITH SNOW COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. IT WILL DEVELOP FIRST
NEAR KRWI (SHORTLY AFTER 00Z)...THEN EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST
OVERNIGHT. LOOKS FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL OF OUR
TAF SITES (KINT, KGSO, KRDU, KFAY, AND KRWI) DURING THIS TIME.

12Z-18Z SAT...GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT AFT SUNRISE...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z.

AFT 18Z SAT...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN RETURNING TO MVFR OR WORSE FROM EARLY
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP DEVELOP AHEAD OF...
THEN ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM AND IT`S SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...RAH/WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 271730
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1230 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE
SOME STRATUS IS DELAYING WARMING. EVEN IN THAT AREA...THERE ARE ONLY
A FEW SITES STILL REPORTING 31 OR 32 DEGREES...THUS WE LET THE WSW
FOR BLACK ICE EXPIRE ON TIME AT 10 AM.

LATEST VIS SATELLITE SHOWS STATUS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.  WHERE SKIES ARE
CLEAR...THE TEMP QUICKLY CLIMBED AFTER SUNRISE...AND HAS ALREADY
REACHED THE LOWER 40S ACROSS OUR SE ZONES. AS SUCH...FOR OUR NEXT
PRODUCT UPDATE WE`LL BUMP UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS OUR SE ZONES...AND PERHAPS LOWER A DEGREE OR SO ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRATUS.  OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND THE
PREV NEAR-TERM DISC PROVIDED BELOW FOR REFERENCE.

PREV NEAR TERM DISC AS OF 300 AM...FAST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN
A DECK OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION  WHILE THE APPROACH OF A
S/W CROSSING THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AS
WELL. LIFT APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION THOUGH COULD SEE A POCKET OF DRIZZLE OR SNOW
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE TAIL END OF THE S/W CROSSES OUR
REGION.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES THIS AFTERNOON AVERAGE 50-60M BELOW
AVERAGE...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
FEBRUARY. FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

THE AFOREMENTIONED S/W WILL USHER A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS SFC
FEATURE WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER. EXPECT SOME MINOR
DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING TOTALLY CLEAR
SKIES. THICKNESSES IN THE 1260-1265M RANGE HISTORICALLY SUGGEST MIN
TEMPS CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES. FAVOR THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE VERSUS THE
WARMER MET.

SATURDAY...1040+MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL NOSE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS DRY AIR RIDGE AND ACCOMPANYING
850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. FAVOR THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE THOUGH IF PEEKS OF SUN MORE
PREVALENT THEN CURRENT THINKING...AFTERNOON TEMPS COULD END UP BEING
3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING/APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST-SW SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE DRY AIR SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT STILL MAINTAIN A PRESENCE ACROSS OUR REGION. MOS
GUIDANCE...MAINLY THE MAV...APPEARS TOO COLD CONSIDERING THE
INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE. WHILE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LIFT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. MIN TEMPS
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 NE TO THE MID 20S FAR SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A QUICK MOVING S/W DISTURBANCE
MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION... WITH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM... A MOIST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ATOP A DEPOSITED COLD SURFACE
AIRMASS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY... WITH PRECIP
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATEST
NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN BRING PRECIP IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. IF THIS INDEED OCCURRED THEN WE MAY HAVE
SOME P-TYPE ISSUES (GENERALLY SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN) ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF REMAINING DRY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA... WILL ONLY SHOW A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (CHILLY RAIN THOUGH).
NONETHELESS...  WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK INTO THE
AREA AFTER IT MOVES OFFSHORE ALONG WITH SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS
AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON EXPECT SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY LOWER PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS
YIELDS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
SE.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... HELPING TO SOUR OUT ANY COLD AIR DAMMING
AIRMASS THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER... AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXPECT WE WILL SEE POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLY A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ON  MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS AND HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY AND
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF THE CAD AND HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER. LOW TEMPS MONDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S (WITH A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS A LINGERING CAD BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE FRONT SETTLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE... MID
LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO DISAGREE WITH HOW QUICKLY WE WILL SEE A MOISTENING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA... POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER CAD AIRMASS. GIVEN WPC CONTINUES TO TREND
TOWARDS THE WETTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE... WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY... WITH A CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIP (WHICH IS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GFS). GIVEN THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND GO WITH HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY RANDING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S SE... WITH LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

AS THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST... EXPECT ANY LINGERING CAD AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO ERODE. THUS...
LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD OCCUR EARLY IN
THE NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLE RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT GET THAT
DETAILED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST AT THAT TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OVER
IF WE WILL SEE A CAD AIRMASS EVEN DEVELOP. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED NEXT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PARALLE TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WITH
ALONG WITH A GOOD TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WE COULD
SEE DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS WEDNESDAY (MAINLY NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY... AT THIS TIME) INTO THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION... TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND QUITE
NICELY (WITH THE CAD AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ERODE PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT EVEN IN THE NW) TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NW TO THE
LOWER TO MAYBE EVEN MID 70S SE. HIGHS AND LOWS ON THURSDAY WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...

THROUGH 00Z SAT...EXPECTED A BAND OF STRATOCU WITH BASES AROUND 5K
FT ACROSS THE TRIAD AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT REGION...AND SCATTERED CU
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT REGION.  LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

00Z-12Z SAT...LOW LEVEL WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND INCREASE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL ADVECT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BENEATH THE INVERSION.  THAT...IN COMBINATION
WITH SNOW COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. IT WILL DEVELOP FIRST
NEAR KRWI (SHORTLY AFTER 00Z)...THEN EXPAND SOUTH AND WEST
OVERNIGHT. LOOKS FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ALL OF OUR
TAF SITES (KINT, KGSO, KRDU, KFAY, AND KRWI) DURING THIS TIME.

12Z-18Z SAT...GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT AFT SUNRISE...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z.

AFT 18Z SAT...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN RETURNING TO MVFR OR WORSE FROM EARLY
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP DEVELOP AHEAD OF...
THEN ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT CAN BE
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM AND IT`S SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...RAH/WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 271531
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1030 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE
SOME STRATUS IS DELAYING WARMING. EVEN IN THAT AREA...THERE ARE ONLY
A FEW SITES STILL REPORTING 31 OR 32 DEGREES...THUS WE LET THE WSW
FOR BLACK ICE EXPIRE ON TIME AT 10 AM.

LATEST VIS SATELLITE SHOWS STATUS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.  WHERE SKIES ARE
CLEAR...THE TEMP QUICKLY CLIMBED AFTER SUNRISE...AND HAS ALREADY
REACHED THE LOWER 40S ACROSS OUR SE ZONES. AS SUCH...FOR OUR NEXT
PRODUCT UPDATE WE`LL BUMP UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS OUR SE ZONES...AND PERHAPS LOWER A DEGREE OR SO ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRATUS.  OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND THE
PREV NEAR-TERM DISC PROVIDED BELOW FOR REFERENCE.

PREV NEAR TERM DISC AS OF 300 AM...FAST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN
A DECK OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION  WHILE THE APPROACH OF A
S/W CROSSING THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AS
WELL. LIFT APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION THOUGH COULD SEE A POCKET OF DRIZZLE OR SNOW
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE TAIL END OF THE S/W CROSSES OUR
REGION.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES THIS AFTERNOON AVERAGE 50-60M BELOW
AVERAGE...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
FEBRUARY. FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

THE AFOREMENTIONED S/W WILL USHER A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS SFC
FEATURE WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER. EXPECT SOME MINOR
DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING TOTALLY CLEAR
SKIES. THICKNESSES IN THE 1260-1265M RANGE HISTORICALLY SUGGEST MIN
TEMPS CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES. FAVOR THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE VERSUS THE
WARMER MET.

SATURDAY...1040+MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL NOSE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS DRY AIR RIDGE AND ACCOMPANYING
850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. FAVOR THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE THOUGH IF PEEKS OF SUN MORE
PREVALENT THEN CURRENT THINKING...AFTERNOON TEMPS COULD END UP BEING
3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING/APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST-SW SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE DRY AIR SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT STILL MAINTAIN A PRESENCE ACROSS OUR REGION. MOS
GUIDANCE...MAINLY THE MAV...APPEARS TOO COLD CONSIDERING THE
INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE. WHILE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LIFT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. MIN TEMPS
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 NE TO THE MID 20S FAR SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A QUICK MOVING S/W DISTURBANCE
MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION... WITH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM... A MOIST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ATOP A DEPOSITED COLD SURFACE
AIRMASS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY... WITH PRECIP
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATEST
NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN BRING PRECIP IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. IF THIS INDEED OCCURRED THEN WE MAY HAVE
SOME P-TYPE ISSUES (GENERALLY SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN) ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF REMAINING DRY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA... WILL ONLY SHOW A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (CHILLY RAIN THOUGH).
NONETHELESS...  WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK INTO THE
AREA AFTER IT MOVES OFFSHORE ALONG WITH SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS
AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON EXPECT SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY LOWER PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS
YIELDS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
SE.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... HELPING TO SOUR OUT ANY COLD AIR DAMMING
AIRMASS THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER... AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXPECT WE WILL SEE POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLY A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ON  MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS AND HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY AND
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF THE CAD AND HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER. LOW TEMPS MONDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S (WITH A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS A LINGERING CAD BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE FRONT SETTLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE... MID
LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO DISAGREE WITH HOW QUICKLY WE WILL SEE A MOISTENING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA... POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER CAD AIRMASS. GIVEN WPC CONTINUES TO TREND
TOWARDS THE WETTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE... WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY... WITH A CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIP (WHICH IS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GFS). GIVEN THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND GO WITH HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY RANDING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S SE... WITH LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

AS THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST... EXPECT ANY LINGERING CAD AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO ERODE. THUS...
LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD OCCUR EARLY IN
THE NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLE RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT GET THAT
DETAILED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST AT THAT TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OVER
IF WE WILL SEE A CAD AIRMASS EVEN DEVELOP. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED NEXT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PARALLE TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WITH
ALONG WITH A GOOD TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WE COULD
SEE DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS WEDNESDAY (MAINLY NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY... AT THIS TIME) INTO THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION... TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND QUITE
NICELY (WITH THE CAD AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ERODE PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT EVEN IN THE NW) TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NW TO THE
LOWER TO MAYBE EVEN MID 70S SE. HIGHS AND LOWS ON THURSDAY WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 708 AM FRIDAY...

MAIN AVIATION HAZARD THROUGH MID MORNING WILL BE IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY
DUE TO FREEZING FOG. THE PROBABILITY OF LIFR VISIBILITY IS HIGHEST
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT INCLUDING IN
VICINITY OF KRWI...KINT...KGSO...AND KRDU. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE
BETWEEN 12Z-14Z.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DECK OF HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR CEILINGS
AROUND MID DAY THROUGH AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SKIRTS ACROSS THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL GO FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE
EARLY TO NORTHERLY NEAR 10KTS BY LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY CAUSE
A DECK OF STRATUS TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...RESULTING
IN A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN SATURDAY AND RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A
WARMER MOIST AIR MASS INTO OUR AREA...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH PATCHES OF RAIN. THE ADVERSE
AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-
073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 271531
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1030 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE
SOME STRATUS IS DELAYING WARMING. EVEN IN THAT AREA...THERE ARE ONLY
A FEW SITES STILL REPORTING 31 OR 32 DEGREES...THUS WE LET THE WSW
FOR BLACK ICE EXPIRE ON TIME AT 10 AM.

LATEST VIS SATELLITE SHOWS STATUS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.  WHERE SKIES ARE
CLEAR...THE TEMP QUICKLY CLIMBED AFTER SUNRISE...AND HAS ALREADY
REACHED THE LOWER 40S ACROSS OUR SE ZONES. AS SUCH...FOR OUR NEXT
PRODUCT UPDATE WE`LL BUMP UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS OUR SE ZONES...AND PERHAPS LOWER A DEGREE OR SO ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRATUS.  OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND THE
PREV NEAR-TERM DISC PROVIDED BELOW FOR REFERENCE.

PREV NEAR TERM DISC AS OF 300 AM...FAST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN
A DECK OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION  WHILE THE APPROACH OF A
S/W CROSSING THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AS
WELL. LIFT APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION THOUGH COULD SEE A POCKET OF DRIZZLE OR SNOW
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE TAIL END OF THE S/W CROSSES OUR
REGION.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES THIS AFTERNOON AVERAGE 50-60M BELOW
AVERAGE...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
FEBRUARY. FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

THE AFOREMENTIONED S/W WILL USHER A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS SFC
FEATURE WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER. EXPECT SOME MINOR
DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING TOTALLY CLEAR
SKIES. THICKNESSES IN THE 1260-1265M RANGE HISTORICALLY SUGGEST MIN
TEMPS CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES. FAVOR THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE VERSUS THE
WARMER MET.

SATURDAY...1040+MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL NOSE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS DRY AIR RIDGE AND ACCOMPANYING
850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. FAVOR THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE THOUGH IF PEEKS OF SUN MORE
PREVALENT THEN CURRENT THINKING...AFTERNOON TEMPS COULD END UP BEING
3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING/APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST-SW SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE DRY AIR SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT STILL MAINTAIN A PRESENCE ACROSS OUR REGION. MOS
GUIDANCE...MAINLY THE MAV...APPEARS TOO COLD CONSIDERING THE
INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE. WHILE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LIFT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. MIN TEMPS
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 NE TO THE MID 20S FAR SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A QUICK MOVING S/W DISTURBANCE
MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION... WITH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM... A MOIST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ATOP A DEPOSITED COLD SURFACE
AIRMASS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY... WITH PRECIP
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATEST
NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN BRING PRECIP IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. IF THIS INDEED OCCURRED THEN WE MAY HAVE
SOME P-TYPE ISSUES (GENERALLY SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN) ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF REMAINING DRY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA... WILL ONLY SHOW A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (CHILLY RAIN THOUGH).
NONETHELESS...  WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK INTO THE
AREA AFTER IT MOVES OFFSHORE ALONG WITH SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS
AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON EXPECT SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY LOWER PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS
YIELDS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
SE.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... HELPING TO SOUR OUT ANY COLD AIR DAMMING
AIRMASS THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER... AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXPECT WE WILL SEE POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLY A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ON  MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS AND HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY AND
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF THE CAD AND HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER. LOW TEMPS MONDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S (WITH A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS A LINGERING CAD BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE FRONT SETTLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE... MID
LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO DISAGREE WITH HOW QUICKLY WE WILL SEE A MOISTENING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA... POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER CAD AIRMASS. GIVEN WPC CONTINUES TO TREND
TOWARDS THE WETTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE... WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY... WITH A CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIP (WHICH IS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GFS). GIVEN THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND GO WITH HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY RANDING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S SE... WITH LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

AS THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST... EXPECT ANY LINGERING CAD AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO ERODE. THUS...
LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD OCCUR EARLY IN
THE NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLE RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT GET THAT
DETAILED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST AT THAT TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OVER
IF WE WILL SEE A CAD AIRMASS EVEN DEVELOP. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED NEXT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PARALLE TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WITH
ALONG WITH A GOOD TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WE COULD
SEE DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS WEDNESDAY (MAINLY NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY... AT THIS TIME) INTO THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION... TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND QUITE
NICELY (WITH THE CAD AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ERODE PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT EVEN IN THE NW) TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NW TO THE
LOWER TO MAYBE EVEN MID 70S SE. HIGHS AND LOWS ON THURSDAY WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 708 AM FRIDAY...

MAIN AVIATION HAZARD THROUGH MID MORNING WILL BE IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY
DUE TO FREEZING FOG. THE PROBABILITY OF LIFR VISIBILITY IS HIGHEST
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT INCLUDING IN
VICINITY OF KRWI...KINT...KGSO...AND KRDU. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE
BETWEEN 12Z-14Z.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DECK OF HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR CEILINGS
AROUND MID DAY THROUGH AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SKIRTS ACROSS THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL GO FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE
EARLY TO NORTHERLY NEAR 10KTS BY LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY CAUSE
A DECK OF STRATUS TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...RESULTING
IN A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN SATURDAY AND RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A
WARMER MOIST AIR MASS INTO OUR AREA...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH PATCHES OF RAIN. THE ADVERSE
AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-
073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 271531
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1030 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE
SOME STRATUS IS DELAYING WARMING. EVEN IN THAT AREA...THERE ARE ONLY
A FEW SITES STILL REPORTING 31 OR 32 DEGREES...THUS WE LET THE WSW
FOR BLACK ICE EXPIRE ON TIME AT 10 AM.

LATEST VIS SATELLITE SHOWS STATUS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.  WHERE SKIES ARE
CLEAR...THE TEMP QUICKLY CLIMBED AFTER SUNRISE...AND HAS ALREADY
REACHED THE LOWER 40S ACROSS OUR SE ZONES. AS SUCH...FOR OUR NEXT
PRODUCT UPDATE WE`LL BUMP UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS OUR SE ZONES...AND PERHAPS LOWER A DEGREE OR SO ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRATUS.  OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND THE
PREV NEAR-TERM DISC PROVIDED BELOW FOR REFERENCE.

PREV NEAR TERM DISC AS OF 300 AM...FAST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN
A DECK OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION  WHILE THE APPROACH OF A
S/W CROSSING THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AS
WELL. LIFT APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION THOUGH COULD SEE A POCKET OF DRIZZLE OR SNOW
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE TAIL END OF THE S/W CROSSES OUR
REGION.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES THIS AFTERNOON AVERAGE 50-60M BELOW
AVERAGE...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
FEBRUARY. FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

THE AFOREMENTIONED S/W WILL USHER A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS SFC
FEATURE WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER. EXPECT SOME MINOR
DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING TOTALLY CLEAR
SKIES. THICKNESSES IN THE 1260-1265M RANGE HISTORICALLY SUGGEST MIN
TEMPS CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES. FAVOR THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE VERSUS THE
WARMER MET.

SATURDAY...1040+MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL NOSE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS DRY AIR RIDGE AND ACCOMPANYING
850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. FAVOR THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE THOUGH IF PEEKS OF SUN MORE
PREVALENT THEN CURRENT THINKING...AFTERNOON TEMPS COULD END UP BEING
3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING/APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST-SW SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE DRY AIR SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT STILL MAINTAIN A PRESENCE ACROSS OUR REGION. MOS
GUIDANCE...MAINLY THE MAV...APPEARS TOO COLD CONSIDERING THE
INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE. WHILE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LIFT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. MIN TEMPS
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 NE TO THE MID 20S FAR SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A QUICK MOVING S/W DISTURBANCE
MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION... WITH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM... A MOIST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ATOP A DEPOSITED COLD SURFACE
AIRMASS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY... WITH PRECIP
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATEST
NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN BRING PRECIP IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. IF THIS INDEED OCCURRED THEN WE MAY HAVE
SOME P-TYPE ISSUES (GENERALLY SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN) ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF REMAINING DRY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA... WILL ONLY SHOW A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (CHILLY RAIN THOUGH).
NONETHELESS...  WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK INTO THE
AREA AFTER IT MOVES OFFSHORE ALONG WITH SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS
AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON EXPECT SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY LOWER PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS
YIELDS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
SE.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... HELPING TO SOUR OUT ANY COLD AIR DAMMING
AIRMASS THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER... AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXPECT WE WILL SEE POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLY A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ON  MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS AND HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY AND
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF THE CAD AND HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER. LOW TEMPS MONDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S (WITH A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS A LINGERING CAD BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE FRONT SETTLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE... MID
LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO DISAGREE WITH HOW QUICKLY WE WILL SEE A MOISTENING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA... POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER CAD AIRMASS. GIVEN WPC CONTINUES TO TREND
TOWARDS THE WETTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE... WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY... WITH A CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIP (WHICH IS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GFS). GIVEN THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND GO WITH HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY RANDING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S SE... WITH LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

AS THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST... EXPECT ANY LINGERING CAD AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO ERODE. THUS...
LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD OCCUR EARLY IN
THE NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLE RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT GET THAT
DETAILED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST AT THAT TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OVER
IF WE WILL SEE A CAD AIRMASS EVEN DEVELOP. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED NEXT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PARALLE TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WITH
ALONG WITH A GOOD TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WE COULD
SEE DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS WEDNESDAY (MAINLY NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY... AT THIS TIME) INTO THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION... TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND QUITE
NICELY (WITH THE CAD AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ERODE PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT EVEN IN THE NW) TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NW TO THE
LOWER TO MAYBE EVEN MID 70S SE. HIGHS AND LOWS ON THURSDAY WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 708 AM FRIDAY...

MAIN AVIATION HAZARD THROUGH MID MORNING WILL BE IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY
DUE TO FREEZING FOG. THE PROBABILITY OF LIFR VISIBILITY IS HIGHEST
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT INCLUDING IN
VICINITY OF KRWI...KINT...KGSO...AND KRDU. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE
BETWEEN 12Z-14Z.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DECK OF HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR CEILINGS
AROUND MID DAY THROUGH AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SKIRTS ACROSS THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL GO FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE
EARLY TO NORTHERLY NEAR 10KTS BY LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY CAUSE
A DECK OF STRATUS TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...RESULTING
IN A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN SATURDAY AND RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A
WARMER MOIST AIR MASS INTO OUR AREA...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH PATCHES OF RAIN. THE ADVERSE
AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-
073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 271531
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1030 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE
SOME STRATUS IS DELAYING WARMING. EVEN IN THAT AREA...THERE ARE ONLY
A FEW SITES STILL REPORTING 31 OR 32 DEGREES...THUS WE LET THE WSW
FOR BLACK ICE EXPIRE ON TIME AT 10 AM.

LATEST VIS SATELLITE SHOWS STATUS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.  WHERE SKIES ARE
CLEAR...THE TEMP QUICKLY CLIMBED AFTER SUNRISE...AND HAS ALREADY
REACHED THE LOWER 40S ACROSS OUR SE ZONES. AS SUCH...FOR OUR NEXT
PRODUCT UPDATE WE`LL BUMP UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS OUR SE ZONES...AND PERHAPS LOWER A DEGREE OR SO ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STRATUS.  OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND THE
PREV NEAR-TERM DISC PROVIDED BELOW FOR REFERENCE.

PREV NEAR TERM DISC AS OF 300 AM...FAST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN
A DECK OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION  WHILE THE APPROACH OF A
S/W CROSSING THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AS
WELL. LIFT APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION THOUGH COULD SEE A POCKET OF DRIZZLE OR SNOW
FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE TAIL END OF THE S/W CROSSES OUR
REGION.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES THIS AFTERNOON AVERAGE 50-60M BELOW
AVERAGE...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
FEBRUARY. FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

THE AFOREMENTIONED S/W WILL USHER A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS SFC
FEATURE WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER. EXPECT SOME MINOR
DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING TOTALLY CLEAR
SKIES. THICKNESSES IN THE 1260-1265M RANGE HISTORICALLY SUGGEST MIN
TEMPS CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES. FAVOR THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE VERSUS THE
WARMER MET.

SATURDAY...1040+MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL NOSE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS DRY AIR RIDGE AND ACCOMPANYING
850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. FAVOR THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE THOUGH IF PEEKS OF SUN MORE
PREVALENT THEN CURRENT THINKING...AFTERNOON TEMPS COULD END UP BEING
3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING/APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST-SW SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE DRY AIR SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT STILL MAINTAIN A PRESENCE ACROSS OUR REGION. MOS
GUIDANCE...MAINLY THE MAV...APPEARS TOO COLD CONSIDERING THE
INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE. WHILE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LIFT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. MIN TEMPS
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 NE TO THE MID 20S FAR SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A QUICK MOVING S/W DISTURBANCE
MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION... WITH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM... A MOIST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ATOP A DEPOSITED COLD SURFACE
AIRMASS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY... WITH PRECIP
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATEST
NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN BRING PRECIP IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. IF THIS INDEED OCCURRED THEN WE MAY HAVE
SOME P-TYPE ISSUES (GENERALLY SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN) ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF REMAINING DRY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA... WILL ONLY SHOW A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (CHILLY RAIN THOUGH).
NONETHELESS...  WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK INTO THE
AREA AFTER IT MOVES OFFSHORE ALONG WITH SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS
AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON EXPECT SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY LOWER PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS
YIELDS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
SE.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... HELPING TO SOUR OUT ANY COLD AIR DAMMING
AIRMASS THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER... AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXPECT WE WILL SEE POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLY A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ON  MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS AND HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY AND
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF THE CAD AND HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER. LOW TEMPS MONDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S (WITH A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS A LINGERING CAD BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE FRONT SETTLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE... MID
LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO DISAGREE WITH HOW QUICKLY WE WILL SEE A MOISTENING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA... POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER CAD AIRMASS. GIVEN WPC CONTINUES TO TREND
TOWARDS THE WETTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE... WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY... WITH A CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIP (WHICH IS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GFS). GIVEN THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND GO WITH HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY RANDING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S SE... WITH LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

AS THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST... EXPECT ANY LINGERING CAD AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO ERODE. THUS...
LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD OCCUR EARLY IN
THE NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLE RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT GET THAT
DETAILED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST AT THAT TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OVER
IF WE WILL SEE A CAD AIRMASS EVEN DEVELOP. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED NEXT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PARALLE TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WITH
ALONG WITH A GOOD TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WE COULD
SEE DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS WEDNESDAY (MAINLY NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY... AT THIS TIME) INTO THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION... TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND QUITE
NICELY (WITH THE CAD AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ERODE PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT EVEN IN THE NW) TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NW TO THE
LOWER TO MAYBE EVEN MID 70S SE. HIGHS AND LOWS ON THURSDAY WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 708 AM FRIDAY...

MAIN AVIATION HAZARD THROUGH MID MORNING WILL BE IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY
DUE TO FREEZING FOG. THE PROBABILITY OF LIFR VISIBILITY IS HIGHEST
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT INCLUDING IN
VICINITY OF KRWI...KINT...KGSO...AND KRDU. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE
BETWEEN 12Z-14Z.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DECK OF HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR CEILINGS
AROUND MID DAY THROUGH AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SKIRTS ACROSS THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL GO FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE
EARLY TO NORTHERLY NEAR 10KTS BY LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY CAUSE
A DECK OF STRATUS TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...RESULTING
IN A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN SATURDAY AND RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A
WARMER MOIST AIR MASS INTO OUR AREA...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH PATCHES OF RAIN. THE ADVERSE
AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-
073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 271208
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
708 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM
THIS MORNING...

PLAN TO MAINTAIN CURRENT WSW FOR BLACK ICE AS IS UNTIL 10 AM. WITH
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY IN THE 25-30 DEGREE
RANGE...REFREEZING OF MELTED ICE/SNOW LIKELY UNDERWAY. EVENING CREW
ON THEIR WAY HOME EARLIER REPORTED SCATTERED SLICK SPOTS ON AREA
ROADWAYS HAD DEVELOPED. TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF A NPW FOR FREEZING
FOG ADVISORY AS VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED TO AT OR BELOW A QUARTER
OF A MILE AT A FEW SITES ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...AFTER
COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...WANT THE EMPHASIS TO BE MORE ON
THE BLACK ICE VERSUS THE DENSE FOG SO WILL INCORPORATE THE MENTION
OF DENSE/FREEZING FOG IN THE UPDATED WSW STATEMENT.

OTHERWISE...FAST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A DECK OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION  WHILE THE APPROACH OF A S/W CROSSING THE
LOWER OH VALLEY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AS WELL. LIFT
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION THOUGH COULD SEE A POCKET OF DRIZZLE OR SNOW FLURRIES
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE TAIL END OF THE S/W CROSSES OUR REGION.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES THIS AFTERNOON AVERAGE 50-60M BELOW
AVERAGE...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
FEBRUARY. FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

THE FOREMENTIONED S/W WILL USHER A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS SFC
FEATURE WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER. EXPECT SOME MINOR
DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING TOTALLY CLEAR
SKIES. THICKNESSES IN THE 1260-1265M RANGE HISTORICALLY SUGGEST MIN
TEMPS CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES. FAVOR THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE VERSUS THE
WARMER MET.

SATURDAY...1040+MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL NOSE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS DRY AIR RIDGE AND ACCOMPANYING
850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. FAVOR THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE THOUGH IF PEEKS OF SUN MORE
PREVALENT THEN CURRENT THINKING...AFTERNOON TEMPS COULD END UP BEING
3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING/APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST-SW SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE DRY AIR SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT STILL MAINTAIN A PRESENCE ACROSS OUR REGION. MOS
GUIDANCE...MAINLY THE MAV...APPEARS TOO COLD CONSIDERING THE
INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE. WHILE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LIFT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. MIN TEMPS
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 NE TO THE MID 20S FAR SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A QUICK MOVING S/W DISTURBANCE
MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION... WITH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM... A MOIST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ATOP A DEPOSITED COLD SURFACE
AIRMASS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY... WITH PRECIP
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATEST
NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN BRING PRECIP IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. IF THIS INDEED OCCURRED THEN WE MAY HAVE
SOME P-TYPE ISSUES (GENERALLY SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN) ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF REMAINING DRY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA... WILL ONLY SHOW A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (CHILLY RAIN THOUGH).
NONETHELESS...  WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK INTO THE
AREA AFTER IT MOVES OFFSHORE ALONG WITH SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS
AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON EXPECT SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY LOWER PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS
YIELDS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
SE.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... HELPING TO SOUR OUT ANY COLD AIR DAMMING
AIRMASS THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER... AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXPECT WE WILL SEE POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLY A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ON  MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS AND HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY AND
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF THE CAD AND HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER. LOW TEMPS MONDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S (WITH A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS A LINGERING CAD BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE FRONT SETTLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE... MID
LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO DISAGREE WITH HOW QUICKLY WE WILL SEE A MOISTENING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA... POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER CAD AIRMASS. GIVEN WPC CONTINUES TO TREND
TOWARDS THE WETTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE... WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY... WITH A CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIP (WHICH IS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GFS). GIVEN THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND GO WITH HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY RANDING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S SE... WITH LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

AS THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST... EXPECT ANY LINGERING CAD AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO ERODE. THUS...
LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD OCCUR EARLY IN
THE NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLE RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT GET THAT
DETAILED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST AT THAT TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OVER
IF WE WILL SEE A CAD AIRMASS EVEN DEVELOP. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED NEXT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PARALLE TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WITH
ALONG WITH A GOOD TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WE COULD
SEE DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS WEDNESDAY (MAINLY NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY... AT THIS TIME) INTO THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION... TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND QUITE
NICELY (WITH THE CAD AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ERODE PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT EVEN IN THE NW) TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NW TO THE
LOWER TO MAYBE EVEN MID 70S SE. HIGHS AND LOWS ON THURSDAY WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 708 AM FRIDAY...

MAIN AVIATION HAZARD THROUGH MID MORNING WILL BE IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY
DUE TO FREEZING FOG. THE PROBABILITY OF LIFR VISIBILITY IS HIGHEST
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT INCLUDING IN
VICINITY OF KRWI...KINT...KGSO...AND KRDU. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE
BETWEEN 12Z-14Z.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DECK OF HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR CEILINGS
AROUND MID DAY THROUGH AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SKIRTS ACROSS THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL GO FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE
EARLY TO NORTHERLY NEAR 10KTS BY LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY CAUSE
A DECK OF STRATUS TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...RESULTING
IN A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN SATURDAY AND RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A
WARMER MOIST AIR MASS INTO OUR AREA...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH PATCHES OF RAIN. THE ADVERSE
AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-
073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 271208
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
708 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM
THIS MORNING...

PLAN TO MAINTAIN CURRENT WSW FOR BLACK ICE AS IS UNTIL 10 AM. WITH
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY IN THE 25-30 DEGREE
RANGE...REFREEZING OF MELTED ICE/SNOW LIKELY UNDERWAY. EVENING CREW
ON THEIR WAY HOME EARLIER REPORTED SCATTERED SLICK SPOTS ON AREA
ROADWAYS HAD DEVELOPED. TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF A NPW FOR FREEZING
FOG ADVISORY AS VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED TO AT OR BELOW A QUARTER
OF A MILE AT A FEW SITES ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...AFTER
COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...WANT THE EMPHASIS TO BE MORE ON
THE BLACK ICE VERSUS THE DENSE FOG SO WILL INCORPORATE THE MENTION
OF DENSE/FREEZING FOG IN THE UPDATED WSW STATEMENT.

OTHERWISE...FAST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A DECK OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION  WHILE THE APPROACH OF A S/W CROSSING THE
LOWER OH VALLEY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AS WELL. LIFT
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION THOUGH COULD SEE A POCKET OF DRIZZLE OR SNOW FLURRIES
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE TAIL END OF THE S/W CROSSES OUR REGION.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES THIS AFTERNOON AVERAGE 50-60M BELOW
AVERAGE...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
FEBRUARY. FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

THE FOREMENTIONED S/W WILL USHER A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS SFC
FEATURE WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER. EXPECT SOME MINOR
DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING TOTALLY CLEAR
SKIES. THICKNESSES IN THE 1260-1265M RANGE HISTORICALLY SUGGEST MIN
TEMPS CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES. FAVOR THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE VERSUS THE
WARMER MET.

SATURDAY...1040+MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL NOSE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS DRY AIR RIDGE AND ACCOMPANYING
850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. FAVOR THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE THOUGH IF PEEKS OF SUN MORE
PREVALENT THEN CURRENT THINKING...AFTERNOON TEMPS COULD END UP BEING
3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING/APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST-SW SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE DRY AIR SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT STILL MAINTAIN A PRESENCE ACROSS OUR REGION. MOS
GUIDANCE...MAINLY THE MAV...APPEARS TOO COLD CONSIDERING THE
INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE. WHILE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LIFT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. MIN TEMPS
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 NE TO THE MID 20S FAR SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A QUICK MOVING S/W DISTURBANCE
MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION... WITH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM... A MOIST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ATOP A DEPOSITED COLD SURFACE
AIRMASS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY... WITH PRECIP
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATEST
NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN BRING PRECIP IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. IF THIS INDEED OCCURRED THEN WE MAY HAVE
SOME P-TYPE ISSUES (GENERALLY SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN) ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF REMAINING DRY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA... WILL ONLY SHOW A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (CHILLY RAIN THOUGH).
NONETHELESS...  WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK INTO THE
AREA AFTER IT MOVES OFFSHORE ALONG WITH SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS
AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON EXPECT SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY LOWER PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS
YIELDS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
SE.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... HELPING TO SOUR OUT ANY COLD AIR DAMMING
AIRMASS THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER... AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXPECT WE WILL SEE POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLY A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ON  MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS AND HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY AND
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF THE CAD AND HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER. LOW TEMPS MONDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S (WITH A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS A LINGERING CAD BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE FRONT SETTLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE... MID
LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO DISAGREE WITH HOW QUICKLY WE WILL SEE A MOISTENING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA... POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER CAD AIRMASS. GIVEN WPC CONTINUES TO TREND
TOWARDS THE WETTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE... WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY... WITH A CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIP (WHICH IS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GFS). GIVEN THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND GO WITH HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY RANDING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S SE... WITH LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

AS THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST... EXPECT ANY LINGERING CAD AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO ERODE. THUS...
LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD OCCUR EARLY IN
THE NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLE RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT GET THAT
DETAILED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST AT THAT TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OVER
IF WE WILL SEE A CAD AIRMASS EVEN DEVELOP. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED NEXT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PARALLE TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WITH
ALONG WITH A GOOD TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WE COULD
SEE DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS WEDNESDAY (MAINLY NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY... AT THIS TIME) INTO THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION... TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND QUITE
NICELY (WITH THE CAD AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ERODE PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT EVEN IN THE NW) TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NW TO THE
LOWER TO MAYBE EVEN MID 70S SE. HIGHS AND LOWS ON THURSDAY WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 708 AM FRIDAY...

MAIN AVIATION HAZARD THROUGH MID MORNING WILL BE IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY
DUE TO FREEZING FOG. THE PROBABILITY OF LIFR VISIBILITY IS HIGHEST
IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT INCLUDING IN
VICINITY OF KRWI...KINT...KGSO...AND KRDU. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE
BETWEEN 12Z-14Z.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DECK OF HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR CEILINGS
AROUND MID DAY THROUGH AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SKIRTS ACROSS THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL GO FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE
EARLY TO NORTHERLY NEAR 10KTS BY LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY CAUSE
A DECK OF STRATUS TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT...RESULTING
IN A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN SATURDAY AND RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A
WARMER MOIST AIR MASS INTO OUR AREA...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH PATCHES OF RAIN. THE ADVERSE
AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-
073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 270825
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
324 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM
THIS MORNING...

PLAN TO MAINTAIN CURRENT WSW FOR BLACK ICE AS IS UNTIL 10 AM. WITH
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY IN THE 25-30 DEGREE
RANGE...REFREEZING OF MELTED ICE/SNOW LIKELY UNDERWAY. EVENING CREW
ON THEIR WAY HOME EARLIER REPORTED SCATTERED SLICK SPOTS ON AREA
ROADWAYS HAD DEVELOPED. TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF A NPW FOR FREEZING
FOG ADVISORY AS VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED TO AT OR BELOW A QUARTER
OF A MILE AT A FEW SITES ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...AFTER
COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...WANT THE EMPHASIS TO BE MORE ON
THE BLACK ICE VERSUS THE DENSE FOG SO WILL INCORPORATE THE MENTION
OF DENSE/FREEZING FOG IN THE UPDATED WSW STATEMENT.

OTHERWISE...FAST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A DECK OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION  WHILE THE APPROACH OF A S/W CROSSING THE
LOWER OH VALLEY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AS WELL. LIFT
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION THOUGH COULD SEE A POCKET OF DRIZZLE OR SNOW FLURRIES
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE TAIL END OF THE S/W CROSSES OUR REGION.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES THIS AFTERNOON AVERAGE 50-60M BELOW
AVERAGE...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
FEBRUARY. FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

THE FOREMENTIONED S/W WILL USHER A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS SFC
FEATURE WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER. EXPECT SOME MINOR
DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING TOTALLY CLEAR
SKIES. THICKNESSES IN THE 1260-1265M RANGE HISTORICALLY SUGGEST MIN
TEMPS CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES. FAVOR THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE VERSUS THE
WARMER MET.

SATURDAY...1040+MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL NOSE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS DRY AIR RIDGE AND ACCOMPANYING
850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. FAVOR THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE THOUGH IF PEEKS OF SUN MORE
PREVALENT THEN CURRENT THINKING...AFTERNOON TEMPS COULD END UP BEING
3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING/APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST-SW SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE DRY AIR SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT STILL MAINTAIN A PRESENCE ACROSS OUR REGION. MOS
GUIDANCE...MAINLY THE MAV...APPEARS TOO COLD CONSIDERING THE
INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE. WHILE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LIFT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. MIN TEMPS
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 NE TO THE MID 20S FAR SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A QUICK MOVING S/W DISTURBANCE
MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION... WITH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM... A MOIST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ATOP A DEPOSITED COLD SURFACE
AIRMASS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY... WITH PRECIP
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATEST
NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN BRING PRECIP IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. IF THIS INDEED OCCURRED THEN WE MAY HAVE
SOME P-TYPE ISSUES (GENERALLY SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN) ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF REMAINING DRY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA... WILL ONLY SHOW A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (CHILLY RAIN THOUGH).
NONETHELESS...  WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK INTO THE
AREA AFTER IT MOVES OFFSHORE ALONG WITH SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS
AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON EXPECT SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY LOWER PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS
YIELDS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
SE.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... HELPING TO SOUR OUT ANY COLD AIR DAMMING
AIRMASS THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER... AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXPECT WE WILL SEE POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLY A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ON  MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS AND HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY AND
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF THE CAD AND HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER. LOW TEMPS MONDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S (WITH A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS A LINGERING CAD BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE FRONT SETTLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE... MID
LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO DISAGREE WITH HOW QUICKLY WE WILL SEE A MOISTENING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA... POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER CAD AIRMASS. GIVEN WPC CONTINUES TO TREND
TOWARDS THE WETTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE... WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY... WITH A CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIP (WHICH IS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GFS). GIVEN THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND GO WITH HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY RANDING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S SE... WITH LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

AS THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST... EXPECT ANY LINGERING CAD AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO ERODE. THUS...
LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD OCCUR EARLY IN
THE NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLE RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT GET THAT
DETAILED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST AT THAT TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OVER
IF WE WILL SEE A CAD AIRMASS EVEN DEVELOP. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED NEXT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PARALLE TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WITH
ALONG WITH A GOOD TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WE COULD
SEE DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS WEDNESDAY (MAINLY NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY... AT THIS TIME) INTO THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION... TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND QUITE
NICELY (WITH THE CAD AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ERODE PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT EVEN IN THE NW) TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NW TO THE
LOWER TO MAYBE EVEN MID 70S SE. HIGHS AND LOWS ON THURSDAY WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...

MAIN AVIATION HAZARD THROUGH MID MORNING WILL BE IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY
DUE TO FREEZING FOG. THE PROBABILITY OF LIFR VISIBILITY IS HIGHEST
IN THE COASTAL LAIN...SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT INCLUDING IN
VICINITY OF KRWI...KFAY...AND KRDU. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE
BETWEEN 12Z-14Z.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DECK OF HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR CEILINGS
AROUND MID DAY THROUGH AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SKIRTS ACROSS THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL GO FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE
EARLY TO NORTHERLY NEAR 10KTS BY LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A
WARMER MOIST AIR MASS INTO OUR AREA...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH PATCHES OF RAIN. THE ADVERSE
AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-
073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 270825
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
324 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM
THIS MORNING...

PLAN TO MAINTAIN CURRENT WSW FOR BLACK ICE AS IS UNTIL 10 AM. WITH
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY IN THE 25-30 DEGREE
RANGE...REFREEZING OF MELTED ICE/SNOW LIKELY UNDERWAY. EVENING CREW
ON THEIR WAY HOME EARLIER REPORTED SCATTERED SLICK SPOTS ON AREA
ROADWAYS HAD DEVELOPED. TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF A NPW FOR FREEZING
FOG ADVISORY AS VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED TO AT OR BELOW A QUARTER
OF A MILE AT A FEW SITES ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...AFTER
COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...WANT THE EMPHASIS TO BE MORE ON
THE BLACK ICE VERSUS THE DENSE FOG SO WILL INCORPORATE THE MENTION
OF DENSE/FREEZING FOG IN THE UPDATED WSW STATEMENT.

OTHERWISE...FAST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A DECK OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION  WHILE THE APPROACH OF A S/W CROSSING THE
LOWER OH VALLEY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AS WELL. LIFT
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION THOUGH COULD SEE A POCKET OF DRIZZLE OR SNOW FLURRIES
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE TAIL END OF THE S/W CROSSES OUR REGION.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES THIS AFTERNOON AVERAGE 50-60M BELOW
AVERAGE...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
FEBRUARY. FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

THE FOREMENTIONED S/W WILL USHER A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS SFC
FEATURE WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER. EXPECT SOME MINOR
DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING TOTALLY CLEAR
SKIES. THICKNESSES IN THE 1260-1265M RANGE HISTORICALLY SUGGEST MIN
TEMPS CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES. FAVOR THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE VERSUS THE
WARMER MET.

SATURDAY...1040+MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL NOSE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS DRY AIR RIDGE AND ACCOMPANYING
850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. FAVOR THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE THOUGH IF PEEKS OF SUN MORE
PREVALENT THEN CURRENT THINKING...AFTERNOON TEMPS COULD END UP BEING
3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING/APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST-SW SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE DRY AIR SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT STILL MAINTAIN A PRESENCE ACROSS OUR REGION. MOS
GUIDANCE...MAINLY THE MAV...APPEARS TOO COLD CONSIDERING THE
INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE. WHILE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LIFT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. MIN TEMPS
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 NE TO THE MID 20S FAR SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A QUICK MOVING S/W DISTURBANCE
MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION... WITH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM... A MOIST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ATOP A DEPOSITED COLD SURFACE
AIRMASS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY... WITH PRECIP
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATEST
NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN BRING PRECIP IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. IF THIS INDEED OCCURRED THEN WE MAY HAVE
SOME P-TYPE ISSUES (GENERALLY SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN) ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF REMAINING DRY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA... WILL ONLY SHOW A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (CHILLY RAIN THOUGH).
NONETHELESS...  WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK INTO THE
AREA AFTER IT MOVES OFFSHORE ALONG WITH SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS
AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON EXPECT SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY LOWER PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS
YIELDS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
SE.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... HELPING TO SOUR OUT ANY COLD AIR DAMMING
AIRMASS THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER... AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXPECT WE WILL SEE POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLY A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ON  MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS AND HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY AND
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF THE CAD AND HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER. LOW TEMPS MONDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S (WITH A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS A LINGERING CAD BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE FRONT SETTLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE... MID
LEVEL RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE CONUS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO DISAGREE WITH HOW QUICKLY WE WILL SEE A MOISTENING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA... POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER CAD AIRMASS. GIVEN WPC CONTINUES TO TREND
TOWARDS THE WETTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE... WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY... WITH A CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIP (WHICH IS MORE
IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GFS). GIVEN THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND GO WITH HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY RANDING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S SE... WITH LOW
TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

AS THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST... EXPECT ANY LINGERING CAD AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO ERODE. THUS...
LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD OCCUR EARLY IN
THE NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLE RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT GET THAT
DETAILED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST AT THAT TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OVER
IF WE WILL SEE A CAD AIRMASS EVEN DEVELOP. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED NEXT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT BECOMES
MORE PARALLE TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WITH
ALONG WITH A GOOD TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WE COULD
SEE DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS WEDNESDAY (MAINLY NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY... AT THIS TIME) INTO THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION... TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND QUITE
NICELY (WITH THE CAD AIRMASS EXPECTED TO ERODE PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT EVEN IN THE NW) TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S NW TO THE
LOWER TO MAYBE EVEN MID 70S SE. HIGHS AND LOWS ON THURSDAY WILL
DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...

MAIN AVIATION HAZARD THROUGH MID MORNING WILL BE IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY
DUE TO FREEZING FOG. THE PROBABILITY OF LIFR VISIBILITY IS HIGHEST
IN THE COASTAL LAIN...SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT INCLUDING IN
VICINITY OF KRWI...KFAY...AND KRDU. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE
BETWEEN 12Z-14Z.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DECK OF HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR CEILINGS
AROUND MID DAY THROUGH AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SKIRTS ACROSS THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL GO FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE
EARLY TO NORTHERLY NEAR 10KTS BY LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A
WARMER MOIST AIR MASS INTO OUR AREA...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH PATCHES OF RAIN. THE ADVERSE
AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-
073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 270759
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM
THIS MORNING...

PLAN TO MAINTAIN CURRENT WSW FOR BLACK ICE AS IS UNTIL 10 AM. WITH
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY IN THE 25-30 DEGREE
RANGE...REFREEZING OF MELTED ICE/SNOW LIKELY UNDERWAY. EVENING CREW
ON THEIR WAY HOME EARLIER REPORTED SCATTERED SLICK SPOTS ON AREA
ROADWAYS HAD DEVELOPED. TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF A NPW FOR FREEZING
FOG ADVISORY AS VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED TO AT OR BELOW A QUARTER
OF A MILE AT A FEW SITES ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...AFTER
COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...WANT THE EMPHASIS TO BE MORE ON
THE BLACK ICE VERSUS THE DENSE FOG SO WILL INCORPORATE THE MENTION
OF DENSE/FREEZING FOG IN THE UPDATED WSW STATEMENT.

OTHERWISE...FAST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A DECK OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION  WHILE THE APPROACH OF A S/W CROSSING THE
LOWER OH VALLEY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AS WELL. LIFT
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION THOUGH COULD SEE A POCKET OF DRIZZLE OR SNOW FLURRIES
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE TAIL END OF THE S/W CROSSES OUR REGION.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES THIS AFTERNOON AVERAGE 50-60M BELOW
AVERAGE...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
FEBRUARY. FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

THE FOREMENTIONED S/W WILL USHER A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS SFC
FEATURE WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER. EXPECT SOME MINOR
DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING TOTALLY CLEAR
SKIES. THICKNESSES IN THE 1260-1265M RANGE HISTORICALLY SUGGEST MIN
TEMPS CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES. FAVOR THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE VERSUS THE
WARMER MET.

SATURDAY...1040+MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL NOSE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS DRY AIR RIDGE AND ACCOMPANYING
850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. FAVOR THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE THOUGH IF PEEKS OF SUN MORE
PREVALENT THEN CURRENT THINKING...AFTERNOON TEMPS COULD END UP BEING
3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING/APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST-SW SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE DRY AIR SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT STILL MAINTAIN A PRESENCE ACROSS OUR REGION. MOS
GUIDANCE...MAINLY THE MAV...APPEARS TOO COLD CONSIDERING THE
INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE. WHILE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LIFT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. MIN TEMPS
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 NE TO THE MID 20S FAR SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A QUICK MOVING S/W DISTURBANCE
MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION... WITH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM... A MOIST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ATOP A DEPOSITED COLD SURFACE
AIRMASS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY... WITH PRECIP
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATEST
NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN BRING PRECIP IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. IF THIS INDEED OCCURRED THEN WE MAY HAVE
SOME P-TYPE ISSUES (GENERALLY SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN) ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF REMAINING DRY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA... WILL ONLY SHOW A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (CHILLY RAIN THOUGH).
NONETHELESS...  WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK INTO THE
AREA AFTER IT MOVES OFFSHORE ALONG WITH SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS
AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON EXPECT SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY LOWER PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS
YIELDS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
SE.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... HELPING TO SOUR OUT ANY COLD AIR DAMMING
AIRMASS THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER... AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXPECT WE WILL SEE POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLY A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ON  MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS AND HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY AND
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF THE CAD AND HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER. LOW TEMPS MONDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S (WITH A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS A LINGERING CAD BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION TIMING AS SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. INITIAL COLD AIR DAMMING
SUNDAY WILL BE NUDGED OFFSHORE BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT SPREADING
INTO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S. MINS WILL BE MODERATING A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
CLOUDINESS AND SCOURING OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS KEEPING MINS IN THE
30S.

THE AIRMASS SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
MILDER...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR YET ANOTHER
TRANSITION TO A DAMMING SCENARIO BY TUESDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT SAGS
SOUTH ON MONDAY...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WHICH WOULD DAMPEN/DELAY
THE POTENTIAL WARMUP INTO MID WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN A WARMUP INTO THE
50S PRE-FROPA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH RAIN WHICH WOULD PRODUCE AN IN-
SITU COOLOFF ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO MID 50S
EAST. PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL REMAIN AT LEAST IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TIMING IS NOT
VERY CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WARMING US INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND EVEN THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS DELAYED TIL LATE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...

MAIN AVIATION HAZARD THROUGH MID MORNING WILL BE IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY
DUE TO FREEZING FOG. THE PROBABILITY OF LIFR VISIBILITY IS HIGHEST
IN THE COASTAL LAIN...SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT INCLUDING IN
VICINITY OF KRWI...KFAY...AND KRDU. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE
BETWEEN 12Z-14Z.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DECK OF HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR CEILINGS
AROUND MID DAY THROUGH AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SKIRTS ACROSS THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL GO FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE
EARLY TO NORTHERLY NEAR 10KTS BY LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A
WARMER MOIST AIR MASS INTO OUR AREA...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH PATCHES OF RAIN. THE ADVERSE
AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-
073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 270759
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM
THIS MORNING...

PLAN TO MAINTAIN CURRENT WSW FOR BLACK ICE AS IS UNTIL 10 AM. WITH
TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY IN THE 25-30 DEGREE
RANGE...REFREEZING OF MELTED ICE/SNOW LIKELY UNDERWAY. EVENING CREW
ON THEIR WAY HOME EARLIER REPORTED SCATTERED SLICK SPOTS ON AREA
ROADWAYS HAD DEVELOPED. TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF A NPW FOR FREEZING
FOG ADVISORY AS VISIBILITIES HAVE LOWERED TO AT OR BELOW A QUARTER
OF A MILE AT A FEW SITES ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...AFTER
COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...WANT THE EMPHASIS TO BE MORE ON
THE BLACK ICE VERSUS THE DENSE FOG SO WILL INCORPORATE THE MENTION
OF DENSE/FREEZING FOG IN THE UPDATED WSW STATEMENT.

OTHERWISE...FAST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A DECK OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION  WHILE THE APPROACH OF A S/W CROSSING THE
LOWER OH VALLEY WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF MID CLOUDS AS WELL. LIFT
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUDS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION THOUGH COULD SEE A POCKET OF DRIZZLE OR SNOW FLURRIES
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE TAIL END OF THE S/W CROSSES OUR REGION.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES THIS AFTERNOON AVERAGE 50-60M BELOW
AVERAGE...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
FEBRUARY. FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE. EXPECT
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 40S
SOUTH.

THE FOREMENTIONED S/W WILL USHER A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THIS SFC
FEATURE WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER AND COOLER. EXPECT SOME MINOR
DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING TOTALLY CLEAR
SKIES. THICKNESSES IN THE 1260-1265M RANGE HISTORICALLY SUGGEST MIN
TEMPS CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES. FAVOR THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE VERSUS THE
WARMER MET.

SATURDAY...1040+MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL NOSE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS DRY AIR RIDGE AND ACCOMPANYING
850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. FAVOR THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE THOUGH IF PEEKS OF SUN MORE
PREVALENT THEN CURRENT THINKING...AFTERNOON TEMPS COULD END UP BEING
3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING/APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST-SW SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE DRY AIR SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE BUT STILL MAINTAIN A PRESENCE ACROSS OUR REGION. MOS
GUIDANCE...MAINLY THE MAV...APPEARS TOO COLD CONSIDERING THE
INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVERAGE. WHILE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY...LIFT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. MIN TEMPS
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 NE TO THE MID 20S FAR SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A QUICK MOVING S/W DISTURBANCE
MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION... WITH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM... A MOIST
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ATOP A DEPOSITED COLD SURFACE
AIRMASS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY... WITH PRECIP
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE LATEST
NAM CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN BRING PRECIP IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. IF THIS INDEED OCCURRED THEN WE MAY HAVE
SOME P-TYPE ISSUES (GENERALLY SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN) ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER... WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF REMAINING DRY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA... WILL ONLY SHOW A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS (CHILLY RAIN THOUGH).
NONETHELESS...  WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK INTO THE
AREA AFTER IT MOVES OFFSHORE ALONG WITH SOME PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS
AT LEAST WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON EXPECT SKIES WILL
BE CLOUDY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY LOWER PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS
YIELDS HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
SE.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... HELPING TO SOUR OUT ANY COLD AIR DAMMING
AIRMASS THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER... AHEAD OF THE FRONT
EXPECT WE WILL SEE POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY NIGHT... WITH POSSIBLY A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS ON  MONDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS AND HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY AND
DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF THE CAD AND HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER. LOW TEMPS MONDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH/NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S (WITH A HIGH BUST POTENTIAL...
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS A LINGERING CAD BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION TIMING AS SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. INITIAL COLD AIR DAMMING
SUNDAY WILL BE NUDGED OFFSHORE BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT SPREADING
INTO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S. MINS WILL BE MODERATING A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
CLOUDINESS AND SCOURING OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS KEEPING MINS IN THE
30S.

THE AIRMASS SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
MILDER...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR YET ANOTHER
TRANSITION TO A DAMMING SCENARIO BY TUESDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT SAGS
SOUTH ON MONDAY...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WHICH WOULD DAMPEN/DELAY
THE POTENTIAL WARMUP INTO MID WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN A WARMUP INTO THE
50S PRE-FROPA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH RAIN WHICH WOULD PRODUCE AN IN-
SITU COOLOFF ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO MID 50S
EAST. PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL REMAIN AT LEAST IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TIMING IS NOT
VERY CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WARMING US INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND EVEN THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS DELAYED TIL LATE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...

MAIN AVIATION HAZARD THROUGH MID MORNING WILL BE IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY
DUE TO FREEZING FOG. THE PROBABILITY OF LIFR VISIBILITY IS HIGHEST
IN THE COASTAL LAIN...SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT INCLUDING IN
VICINITY OF KRWI...KFAY...AND KRDU. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE
BETWEEN 12Z-14Z.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DECK OF HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR CEILINGS
AROUND MID DAY THROUGH AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SKIRTS ACROSS THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL GO FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE
EARLY TO NORTHERLY NEAR 10KTS BY LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A
WARMER MOIST AIR MASS INTO OUR AREA...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH PATCHES OF RAIN. THE ADVERSE
AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-
073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 270546
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1245 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM THURSDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM
FRIDAY...

THE FORMATION OF BLACK ICE AND THE REFREEZING OF THE SNOW AND ICE
PACK WERE WELL UNDERWAY AT MID EVENING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS IS
THE REGION WHERE THE SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY NEAR SUNSET. TEMPERATURES
FELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S QUICKLY FROM THE MID 30S JUST A FEW
HOURS BEFORE. THERE WAS ALREADY PLENTY OF BLACK ICE THROUGHOUT THE
PARKING AREAS HERE AT THE RALEIGH NWS OFFICE AT THE NCSU CAMPUS. IN
ADDITION... THE REMAINING SNOW SOLIDIFIED/REFROZE QUICKLY BETWEEN
800 AND 900 PM. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
HAZARD TO GO ALONG WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WAS ALREADY
IN EFFECT.

THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. SATELLITE DATA INDICATED ANOTHER DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS HAD
SPREAD ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE TRIAD... WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE A
GOOD 10 DEGREES WARMER AT WINSTON-SALEM THAN OVER THE CLEAR AREA TO
THE EAST AT ROXBORO. THERE WERE ALSO CIRRUS DEVELOPING IN THE FAST
JUST ALOFT WHICH APPEAR ON TARGET TO QUICKLY MOVE OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. THEN... ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WAS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS. THEREFORE... A WIDE RANGE OF LOWS IS ANTICIPATED
WITH MOSTLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN GENERAL. MORE UPPER 20S IF CLOUDS
PREVAIL... AND SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE PIEDMONT WHERE THE MOST
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

AREAS OF FOG APPEAR LIKELY.... BUT PLACEMENT OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG
IS MADE MORE DIFFICULT BY THE EXPECTED VARIABLY BOUTS OF CLOUDINESS.
WE MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT... WITH THE
MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES WHERE THE CURRENT BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINED
NEARLY SATURATED BY THE HEAVY QPF FROM THE WINTER STORM. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

BE EXTRA CAREFUL TONIGHT DUE TO THE ICE AND FOG HAZARDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS TO START.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TO AROUND FREEZING BY 10AM ALTHOUGH
THIS COULD BE DELAYED IF CLOUD COVER HOLDS LONGER OR LOWS TONIGHT
BOTTOM OUT EVEN FURTHER THAN FORECAST. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. -BLAES

1044 HPA HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BE RACING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE IN FAST WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE
LATEST GFS AND NMM SHOW SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND A FLURRY
INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST LOOKS POSSIBLE...BUT MOISTURE WILL VERY
LIMITED (PW ~0.25 IN) AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND REINFORCED CAA
OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE MINS IN THE UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST...
WITH MOSTLY LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH DAMMING SETTLED IN PLACE SATURDAY
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER WELL-BELOW NORMAL DAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S...FROM
LOW 30S NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS...TO NEAR 40 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER IF SKIES ARE CLEAR ENOUGH TO
PROMOTE BETTER RADIATION...WITH TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST TO MOSTLY
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION TIMING AS SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. INITIAL COLD AIR DAMMING
SUNDAY WILL BE NUDGED OFFSHORE BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT SPREADING
INTO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S. MINS WILL BE MODERATING A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
CLOUDINESS AND SCOURING OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS KEEPING MINS IN THE
30S.

THE AIRMASS SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
MILDER...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR YET ANOTHER
TRANSITION TO A DAMMING SCENARIO BY TUESDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT SAGS
SOUTH ON MONDAY...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WHICH WOULD DAMPEN/DELAY
THE POTENTIAL WARMUP INTO MID WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN A WARMUP INTO THE
50S PRE-FROPA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH RAIN WHICH WOULD PRODUCE AN IN-
SITU COOLOFF ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO MID 50S
EAST. PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL REMAIN AT LEAST IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TIMING IS NOT
VERY CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WARMING US INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND EVEN THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS DELAYED TIL LATE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...

MAIN AVIATION HAZARD THROUGH MID MORNING WILL BE IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY
DUE TO FREEZING FOG. THE PROBABILITY OF LIFR VISIBILITY IS HIGHEST
IN THE COASTAL LAIN...SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT INCLUDING IN
VICINITY OF KRWI...KFAY...AND KRDU. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE
BETWEEN 12Z-14Z.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DECK OF HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR CEILINGS
AROUND MID DAY THROUGH AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SKIRTS ACROSS THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL GO FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE
EARLY TO NORTHERLY NEAR 10KTS BY LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A
WARMER MOIST AIR MASS INTO OUR AREA...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH PATCHES OF RAIN. THE ADVERSE
AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-
073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BLAES/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 270546
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1245 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM THURSDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM
FRIDAY...

THE FORMATION OF BLACK ICE AND THE REFREEZING OF THE SNOW AND ICE
PACK WERE WELL UNDERWAY AT MID EVENING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS IS
THE REGION WHERE THE SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY NEAR SUNSET. TEMPERATURES
FELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S QUICKLY FROM THE MID 30S JUST A FEW
HOURS BEFORE. THERE WAS ALREADY PLENTY OF BLACK ICE THROUGHOUT THE
PARKING AREAS HERE AT THE RALEIGH NWS OFFICE AT THE NCSU CAMPUS. IN
ADDITION... THE REMAINING SNOW SOLIDIFIED/REFROZE QUICKLY BETWEEN
800 AND 900 PM. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
HAZARD TO GO ALONG WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WAS ALREADY
IN EFFECT.

THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. SATELLITE DATA INDICATED ANOTHER DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS HAD
SPREAD ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE TRIAD... WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE A
GOOD 10 DEGREES WARMER AT WINSTON-SALEM THAN OVER THE CLEAR AREA TO
THE EAST AT ROXBORO. THERE WERE ALSO CIRRUS DEVELOPING IN THE FAST
JUST ALOFT WHICH APPEAR ON TARGET TO QUICKLY MOVE OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. THEN... ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WAS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS. THEREFORE... A WIDE RANGE OF LOWS IS ANTICIPATED
WITH MOSTLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN GENERAL. MORE UPPER 20S IF CLOUDS
PREVAIL... AND SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE PIEDMONT WHERE THE MOST
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

AREAS OF FOG APPEAR LIKELY.... BUT PLACEMENT OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG
IS MADE MORE DIFFICULT BY THE EXPECTED VARIABLY BOUTS OF CLOUDINESS.
WE MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT... WITH THE
MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES WHERE THE CURRENT BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINED
NEARLY SATURATED BY THE HEAVY QPF FROM THE WINTER STORM. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

BE EXTRA CAREFUL TONIGHT DUE TO THE ICE AND FOG HAZARDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS TO START.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TO AROUND FREEZING BY 10AM ALTHOUGH
THIS COULD BE DELAYED IF CLOUD COVER HOLDS LONGER OR LOWS TONIGHT
BOTTOM OUT EVEN FURTHER THAN FORECAST. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. -BLAES

1044 HPA HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BE RACING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE IN FAST WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE
LATEST GFS AND NMM SHOW SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND A FLURRY
INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST LOOKS POSSIBLE...BUT MOISTURE WILL VERY
LIMITED (PW ~0.25 IN) AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND REINFORCED CAA
OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE MINS IN THE UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST...
WITH MOSTLY LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH DAMMING SETTLED IN PLACE SATURDAY
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER WELL-BELOW NORMAL DAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S...FROM
LOW 30S NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS...TO NEAR 40 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER IF SKIES ARE CLEAR ENOUGH TO
PROMOTE BETTER RADIATION...WITH TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST TO MOSTLY
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION TIMING AS SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. INITIAL COLD AIR DAMMING
SUNDAY WILL BE NUDGED OFFSHORE BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT SPREADING
INTO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S. MINS WILL BE MODERATING A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
CLOUDINESS AND SCOURING OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS KEEPING MINS IN THE
30S.

THE AIRMASS SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
MILDER...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR YET ANOTHER
TRANSITION TO A DAMMING SCENARIO BY TUESDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT SAGS
SOUTH ON MONDAY...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WHICH WOULD DAMPEN/DELAY
THE POTENTIAL WARMUP INTO MID WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN A WARMUP INTO THE
50S PRE-FROPA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH RAIN WHICH WOULD PRODUCE AN IN-
SITU COOLOFF ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO MID 50S
EAST. PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL REMAIN AT LEAST IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TIMING IS NOT
VERY CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WARMING US INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND EVEN THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS DELAYED TIL LATE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...

MAIN AVIATION HAZARD THROUGH MID MORNING WILL BE IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY
DUE TO FREEZING FOG. THE PROBABILITY OF LIFR VISIBILITY IS HIGHEST
IN THE COASTAL LAIN...SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT INCLUDING IN
VICINITY OF KRWI...KFAY...AND KRDU. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE
BETWEEN 12Z-14Z.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DECK OF HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR CEILINGS
AROUND MID DAY THROUGH AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SKIRTS ACROSS THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL GO FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE
EARLY TO NORTHERLY NEAR 10KTS BY LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A
WARMER MOIST AIR MASS INTO OUR AREA...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH PATCHES OF RAIN. THE ADVERSE
AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-
073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BLAES/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 270244
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
940 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM THURSDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM
FRIDAY...

THE FORMATION OF BLACK ICE AND THE REFREEZING OF THE SNOW AND ICE
PACK WERE WELL UNDERWAY AT MID EVENING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS IS
THE REGION WHERE THE SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY NEAR SUNSET. TEMPERATURES
FELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S QUICKLY FROM THE MID 30S JUST A FEW
HOURS BEFORE. THERE WAS ALREADY PLENTY OF BLACK ICE THROUGHOUT THE
PARKING AREAS HERE AT THE RALEIGH NWS OFFICE AT THE NCSU CAMPUS. IN
ADDITION... THE REMAINING SNOW SOLIDIFIED/REFROZE QUICKLY BETWEEN
800 AND 900 PM. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
HAZARD TO GO ALONG WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WAS ALREADY
IN EFFECT.

THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. SATELLITE DATA INDICATED ANOTHER DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS HAD
SPREAD ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE TRIAD... WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE A
GOOD 10 DEGREES WARMER AT WINSTON-SALEM THAN OVER THE CLEAR AREA TO
THE EAST AT ROXBORO. THERE WERE ALSO CIRRUS DEVELOPING IN THE FAST
JUST ALOFT WHICH APPEAR ON TARGET TO QUICKLY MOVE OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. THEN... ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WAS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS. THEREFORE... A WIDE RANGE OF LOWS IS ANTICIPATED
WITH MOSTLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN GENERAL. MORE UPPER 20S IF CLOUDS
PREVAIL... AND SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE PIEDMONT WHERE THE MOST
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

AREAS OF FOG APPEAR LIKELY.... BUT PLACEMENT OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG
IS MADE MORE DIFFICULT BY THE EXPECTED VARIABLY BOUTS OF CLOUDINESS.
WE MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT... WITH THE
MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES WHERE THE CURRENT BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINED
NEARLY SATURATED BY THE HEAVY QPF FROM THE WINTER STORM. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

BE EXTRA CAREFUL TONIGHT DUE TO THE ICE AND FOG HAZARDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS TO START.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TO AROUND FREEZING BY 10AM ALTHOUGH
THIS COULD BE DELAYED IF CLOUD COVER HOLDS LONGER OR LOWS TONIGHT
BOTTOM OUT EVEN FURTHER THAN FORECAST. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. -BLAES

1044 HPA HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BE RACING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE IN FAST WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE
LATEST GFS AND NMM SHOW SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND A FLURRY
INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST LOOKS POSSIBLE...BUT MOISTURE WILL VERY
LIMITED (PW ~0.25 IN) AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND REINFORCED CAA
OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE MINS IN THE UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST...
WITH MOSTLY LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH DAMMING SETTLED IN PLACE SATURDAY
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER WELL-BELOW NORMAL DAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S...FROM
LOW 30S NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS...TO NEAR 40 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER IF SKIES ARE CLEAR ENOUGH TO
PROMOTE BETTER RADIATION...WITH TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST TO MOSTLY
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION TIMING AS SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. INITIAL COLD AIR DAMMING
SUNDAY WILL BE NUDGED OFFSHORE BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT SPREADING
INTO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S. MINS WILL BE MODERATING A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
CLOUDINESS AND SCOURING OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS KEEPING MINS IN THE
30S.

THE AIRMASS SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
MILDER...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR YET ANOTHER
TRANSITION TO A DAMMING SCENARIO BY TUESDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT SAGS
SOUTH ON MONDAY...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WHICH WOULD DAMPEN/DELAY
THE POTENTIAL WARMUP INTO MID WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN A WARMUP INTO THE
50S PRE-FROPA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH RAIN WHICH WOULD PRODUCE AN IN-
SITU COOLOFF ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO MID 50S
EAST. PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL REMAIN AT LEAST IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TIMING IS NOT
VERY CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WARMING US INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND EVEN THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS DELAYED TIL LATE DAY. &&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH
BKN-OVC BASES AROUND 1.5-2.0KFT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A RESIDUAL MOISTURE AIR MASS
REMAINS IN PLACE. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH THE DEGREE OF THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
AND CEILINGS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  BUT FOR FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
A FORECAST OF PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TEMPORALLY FALLING
TO THE LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH LINGERING FOG AN OVERCAST SKIES GIVING WAY TO SCT-BKN
CLOUDS WITH VFR BASES AROUND 3-3.5 KFT AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DETERIORATE
ON SUNDAY WITH ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
MID WEEK. -BLAES

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BLAES/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BLAES




000
FXUS62 KRAH 270244
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
940 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM THURSDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM
FRIDAY...

THE FORMATION OF BLACK ICE AND THE REFREEZING OF THE SNOW AND ICE
PACK WERE WELL UNDERWAY AT MID EVENING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS IS
THE REGION WHERE THE SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY NEAR SUNSET. TEMPERATURES
FELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S QUICKLY FROM THE MID 30S JUST A FEW
HOURS BEFORE. THERE WAS ALREADY PLENTY OF BLACK ICE THROUGHOUT THE
PARKING AREAS HERE AT THE RALEIGH NWS OFFICE AT THE NCSU CAMPUS. IN
ADDITION... THE REMAINING SNOW SOLIDIFIED/REFROZE QUICKLY BETWEEN
800 AND 900 PM. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
HAZARD TO GO ALONG WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WAS ALREADY
IN EFFECT.

THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. SATELLITE DATA INDICATED ANOTHER DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS HAD
SPREAD ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE TRIAD... WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE A
GOOD 10 DEGREES WARMER AT WINSTON-SALEM THAN OVER THE CLEAR AREA TO
THE EAST AT ROXBORO. THERE WERE ALSO CIRRUS DEVELOPING IN THE FAST
JUST ALOFT WHICH APPEAR ON TARGET TO QUICKLY MOVE OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. THEN... ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WAS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS. THEREFORE... A WIDE RANGE OF LOWS IS ANTICIPATED
WITH MOSTLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN GENERAL. MORE UPPER 20S IF CLOUDS
PREVAIL... AND SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE PIEDMONT WHERE THE MOST
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

AREAS OF FOG APPEAR LIKELY.... BUT PLACEMENT OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG
IS MADE MORE DIFFICULT BY THE EXPECTED VARIABLY BOUTS OF CLOUDINESS.
WE MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT... WITH THE
MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES WHERE THE CURRENT BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINED
NEARLY SATURATED BY THE HEAVY QPF FROM THE WINTER STORM. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

BE EXTRA CAREFUL TONIGHT DUE TO THE ICE AND FOG HAZARDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS TO START.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TO AROUND FREEZING BY 10AM ALTHOUGH
THIS COULD BE DELAYED IF CLOUD COVER HOLDS LONGER OR LOWS TONIGHT
BOTTOM OUT EVEN FURTHER THAN FORECAST. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. -BLAES

1044 HPA HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BE RACING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE IN FAST WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE
LATEST GFS AND NMM SHOW SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND A FLURRY
INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST LOOKS POSSIBLE...BUT MOISTURE WILL VERY
LIMITED (PW ~0.25 IN) AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND REINFORCED CAA
OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE MINS IN THE UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST...
WITH MOSTLY LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH DAMMING SETTLED IN PLACE SATURDAY
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER WELL-BELOW NORMAL DAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S...FROM
LOW 30S NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS...TO NEAR 40 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER IF SKIES ARE CLEAR ENOUGH TO
PROMOTE BETTER RADIATION...WITH TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST TO MOSTLY
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION TIMING AS SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. INITIAL COLD AIR DAMMING
SUNDAY WILL BE NUDGED OFFSHORE BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT SPREADING
INTO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S. MINS WILL BE MODERATING A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
CLOUDINESS AND SCOURING OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS KEEPING MINS IN THE
30S.

THE AIRMASS SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
MILDER...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR YET ANOTHER
TRANSITION TO A DAMMING SCENARIO BY TUESDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT SAGS
SOUTH ON MONDAY...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WHICH WOULD DAMPEN/DELAY
THE POTENTIAL WARMUP INTO MID WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN A WARMUP INTO THE
50S PRE-FROPA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH RAIN WHICH WOULD PRODUCE AN IN-
SITU COOLOFF ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO MID 50S
EAST. PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL REMAIN AT LEAST IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TIMING IS NOT
VERY CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WARMING US INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND EVEN THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS DELAYED TIL LATE DAY. &&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH
BKN-OVC BASES AROUND 1.5-2.0KFT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A RESIDUAL MOISTURE AIR MASS
REMAINS IN PLACE. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH THE DEGREE OF THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
AND CEILINGS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  BUT FOR FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
A FORECAST OF PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TEMPORALLY FALLING
TO THE LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH LINGERING FOG AN OVERCAST SKIES GIVING WAY TO SCT-BKN
CLOUDS WITH VFR BASES AROUND 3-3.5 KFT AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DETERIORATE
ON SUNDAY WITH ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
MID WEEK. -BLAES

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BLAES/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BLAES





000
FXUS62 KRAH 270244
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
940 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM THURSDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM
FRIDAY...

THE FORMATION OF BLACK ICE AND THE REFREEZING OF THE SNOW AND ICE
PACK WERE WELL UNDERWAY AT MID EVENING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS IS
THE REGION WHERE THE SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY NEAR SUNSET. TEMPERATURES
FELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S QUICKLY FROM THE MID 30S JUST A FEW
HOURS BEFORE. THERE WAS ALREADY PLENTY OF BLACK ICE THROUGHOUT THE
PARKING AREAS HERE AT THE RALEIGH NWS OFFICE AT THE NCSU CAMPUS. IN
ADDITION... THE REMAINING SNOW SOLIDIFIED/REFROZE QUICKLY BETWEEN
800 AND 900 PM. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
HAZARD TO GO ALONG WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WAS ALREADY
IN EFFECT.

THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. SATELLITE DATA INDICATED ANOTHER DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS HAD
SPREAD ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE TRIAD... WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE A
GOOD 10 DEGREES WARMER AT WINSTON-SALEM THAN OVER THE CLEAR AREA TO
THE EAST AT ROXBORO. THERE WERE ALSO CIRRUS DEVELOPING IN THE FAST
JUST ALOFT WHICH APPEAR ON TARGET TO QUICKLY MOVE OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. THEN... ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WAS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS. THEREFORE... A WIDE RANGE OF LOWS IS ANTICIPATED
WITH MOSTLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN GENERAL. MORE UPPER 20S IF CLOUDS
PREVAIL... AND SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE PIEDMONT WHERE THE MOST
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

AREAS OF FOG APPEAR LIKELY.... BUT PLACEMENT OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG
IS MADE MORE DIFFICULT BY THE EXPECTED VARIABLY BOUTS OF CLOUDINESS.
WE MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT... WITH THE
MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES WHERE THE CURRENT BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINED
NEARLY SATURATED BY THE HEAVY QPF FROM THE WINTER STORM. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

BE EXTRA CAREFUL TONIGHT DUE TO THE ICE AND FOG HAZARDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS TO START.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TO AROUND FREEZING BY 10AM ALTHOUGH
THIS COULD BE DELAYED IF CLOUD COVER HOLDS LONGER OR LOWS TONIGHT
BOTTOM OUT EVEN FURTHER THAN FORECAST. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. -BLAES

1044 HPA HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BE RACING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE IN FAST WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE
LATEST GFS AND NMM SHOW SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND A FLURRY
INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST LOOKS POSSIBLE...BUT MOISTURE WILL VERY
LIMITED (PW ~0.25 IN) AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND REINFORCED CAA
OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE MINS IN THE UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST...
WITH MOSTLY LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH DAMMING SETTLED IN PLACE SATURDAY
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER WELL-BELOW NORMAL DAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S...FROM
LOW 30S NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS...TO NEAR 40 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER IF SKIES ARE CLEAR ENOUGH TO
PROMOTE BETTER RADIATION...WITH TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST TO MOSTLY
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION TIMING AS SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. INITIAL COLD AIR DAMMING
SUNDAY WILL BE NUDGED OFFSHORE BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT SPREADING
INTO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S. MINS WILL BE MODERATING A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
CLOUDINESS AND SCOURING OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS KEEPING MINS IN THE
30S.

THE AIRMASS SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
MILDER...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR YET ANOTHER
TRANSITION TO A DAMMING SCENARIO BY TUESDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT SAGS
SOUTH ON MONDAY...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WHICH WOULD DAMPEN/DELAY
THE POTENTIAL WARMUP INTO MID WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN A WARMUP INTO THE
50S PRE-FROPA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH RAIN WHICH WOULD PRODUCE AN IN-
SITU COOLOFF ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO MID 50S
EAST. PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL REMAIN AT LEAST IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TIMING IS NOT
VERY CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WARMING US INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND EVEN THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS DELAYED TIL LATE DAY. &&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH
BKN-OVC BASES AROUND 1.5-2.0KFT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A RESIDUAL MOISTURE AIR MASS
REMAINS IN PLACE. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH THE DEGREE OF THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
AND CEILINGS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  BUT FOR FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
A FORECAST OF PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TEMPORALLY FALLING
TO THE LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH LINGERING FOG AN OVERCAST SKIES GIVING WAY TO SCT-BKN
CLOUDS WITH VFR BASES AROUND 3-3.5 KFT AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DETERIORATE
ON SUNDAY WITH ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
MID WEEK. -BLAES

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BLAES/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BLAES





000
FXUS62 KRAH 270244
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
940 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM THURSDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM
FRIDAY...

THE FORMATION OF BLACK ICE AND THE REFREEZING OF THE SNOW AND ICE
PACK WERE WELL UNDERWAY AT MID EVENING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS IS
THE REGION WHERE THE SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY NEAR SUNSET. TEMPERATURES
FELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S QUICKLY FROM THE MID 30S JUST A FEW
HOURS BEFORE. THERE WAS ALREADY PLENTY OF BLACK ICE THROUGHOUT THE
PARKING AREAS HERE AT THE RALEIGH NWS OFFICE AT THE NCSU CAMPUS. IN
ADDITION... THE REMAINING SNOW SOLIDIFIED/REFROZE QUICKLY BETWEEN
800 AND 900 PM. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
HAZARD TO GO ALONG WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WAS ALREADY
IN EFFECT.

THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. SATELLITE DATA INDICATED ANOTHER DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS HAD
SPREAD ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE TRIAD... WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE A
GOOD 10 DEGREES WARMER AT WINSTON-SALEM THAN OVER THE CLEAR AREA TO
THE EAST AT ROXBORO. THERE WERE ALSO CIRRUS DEVELOPING IN THE FAST
JUST ALOFT WHICH APPEAR ON TARGET TO QUICKLY MOVE OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. THEN... ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WAS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS. THEREFORE... A WIDE RANGE OF LOWS IS ANTICIPATED
WITH MOSTLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN GENERAL. MORE UPPER 20S IF CLOUDS
PREVAIL... AND SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE PIEDMONT WHERE THE MOST
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

AREAS OF FOG APPEAR LIKELY.... BUT PLACEMENT OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG
IS MADE MORE DIFFICULT BY THE EXPECTED VARIABLY BOUTS OF CLOUDINESS.
WE MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT... WITH THE
MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES WHERE THE CURRENT BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINED
NEARLY SATURATED BY THE HEAVY QPF FROM THE WINTER STORM. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

BE EXTRA CAREFUL TONIGHT DUE TO THE ICE AND FOG HAZARDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS TO START.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TO AROUND FREEZING BY 10AM ALTHOUGH
THIS COULD BE DELAYED IF CLOUD COVER HOLDS LONGER OR LOWS TONIGHT
BOTTOM OUT EVEN FURTHER THAN FORECAST. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. -BLAES

1044 HPA HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BE RACING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE IN FAST WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE
LATEST GFS AND NMM SHOW SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND A FLURRY
INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST LOOKS POSSIBLE...BUT MOISTURE WILL VERY
LIMITED (PW ~0.25 IN) AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND REINFORCED CAA
OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE MINS IN THE UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST...
WITH MOSTLY LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH DAMMING SETTLED IN PLACE SATURDAY
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER WELL-BELOW NORMAL DAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S...FROM
LOW 30S NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS...TO NEAR 40 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER IF SKIES ARE CLEAR ENOUGH TO
PROMOTE BETTER RADIATION...WITH TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST TO MOSTLY
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION TIMING AS SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. INITIAL COLD AIR DAMMING
SUNDAY WILL BE NUDGED OFFSHORE BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT SPREADING
INTO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S. MINS WILL BE MODERATING A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
CLOUDINESS AND SCOURING OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS KEEPING MINS IN THE
30S.

THE AIRMASS SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
MILDER...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR YET ANOTHER
TRANSITION TO A DAMMING SCENARIO BY TUESDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT SAGS
SOUTH ON MONDAY...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WHICH WOULD DAMPEN/DELAY
THE POTENTIAL WARMUP INTO MID WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN A WARMUP INTO THE
50S PRE-FROPA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH RAIN WHICH WOULD PRODUCE AN IN-
SITU COOLOFF ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO MID 50S
EAST. PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL REMAIN AT LEAST IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TIMING IS NOT
VERY CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WARMING US INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND EVEN THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS DELAYED TIL LATE DAY. &&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH
BKN-OVC BASES AROUND 1.5-2.0KFT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A RESIDUAL MOISTURE AIR MASS
REMAINS IN PLACE. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH THE DEGREE OF THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
AND CEILINGS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  BUT FOR FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
A FORECAST OF PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TEMPORALLY FALLING
TO THE LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH LINGERING FOG AN OVERCAST SKIES GIVING WAY TO SCT-BKN
CLOUDS WITH VFR BASES AROUND 3-3.5 KFT AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DETERIORATE
ON SUNDAY WITH ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
MID WEEK. -BLAES

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BLAES/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BLAES




000
FXUS62 KRAH 270227
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
926 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE IN EFFECT FROM 9PM TONIGHT
THROUGH 10 AM FRIDAY...

ANOTHER COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH LOTS
OF CONSIDERATIONS INCLUDING LOW TEMPERATURES FCST ISSUES...BLACK
ICE...FOG OR FREEZING FOG AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.

WIDESPREAD LOW OVERCAST CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON
WITH JUST A FEW BREAKS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AN APPROACHING SHEARED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL ASCENT SHOULD WORK TO
MAINTAIN A FAIR DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM/HRRR AND RAP AGGRESSIVELY COOL THE
SURFACE AND GENERATE A NOTABLE AREA OF SHALLOW STRATUS AND/OR DENSE
FOG. NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE AND THE DEGREE
OF FOG DEVELOPMENT GIVEN MIXED SIGNALS IN THE PATTERN. CONDITIONS AT
THE GROUND LEVEL ARE VERY MOIST WITH EITHER A FRESH SNOW COVER OF
WET SNOW OR MELT WATER OR JUST DAMP CONDITIONS FROM HEAVY RAIN LAST
NIGHT. SKIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR MUCH OVERNIGHT SO RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT IDEAL. IN ADDITION WEAK WEAK COOL ADVECTION OVER
A SNOW PACK GENERALLY ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. STILL SOME
FOG IS EXPECTED AND WILL BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

TO FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS...THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE TRIAD AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST AND A SHEARING SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION. HIGH RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ALSO GENERATE SOME
PRECIPITATION. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW...FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE SATURATION IS
SHALLOW BUT MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO APPROACH THE ICE NUCLEATION
REGION AND WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW. SO WEVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE
TRIAD TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE ALSO PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE NEW SNOW
COVER WHICH WOULD GENERALLY PROMOTE COOLING AND LOWER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR JUMP ALL OVER
THE LOCALIZED COOLING AND SUGGEST LOWS IN THE 10-15 RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FRESH SNOW COVER AREA. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
AND NON IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...THIS SEEMS OVERDONE. ALSO THE
RIPENESS OF THE SNOW WOULD SUGGEST A LOWER CHILLING EFFECT OF THE
SNOW COMPARED TO A NEW VIRGIN SNOW COVER. HAVE GONE WITH A FORECAST
OF LOWS RANGING FROM THE 21 TO 27 DEGREES FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST.

WITH THESE TEMPERATURES IN MIND...EXPECT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
AREA ROADS TO REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WONT FALL
BELOW FREEZING UNTIL AFTER 9PM AND EXPECT REFREEZING TO BE MOST
PROBLEMATIC AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS TO START.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TO AROUND FREEZING BY 10AM ALTHOUGH
THIS COULD BE DELAYED IF CLOUD COVER HOLDS LONGER OR LOWS TONIGHT
BOTTOM OUT EVEN FURTHER THAN FORECAST. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. -BLAES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

1044 HPA HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BE RACING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE IN FAST WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE
LATEST GFS AND NMM SHOW SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND A FLURRY
INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST LOOKS POSSIBLE...BUT MOISTURE WILL VERY
LIMITED (PW ~0.25 IN) AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND REINFORCED CAA
OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE MINS IN THE UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST...
WITH MOSTLY LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH DAMMING SETTLED IN PLACE SATURDAY
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER WELL-BELOW NORMAL DAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S...FROM
LOW 30S NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS...TO NEAR 40 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER IF SKIES ARE CLEAR ENOUGH TO
PROMOTE BETTER RADIATION...WITH TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST TO MOSTLY
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION TIMING AS SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. INITIAL COLD AIR DAMMING
SUNDAY WILL BE NUDGED OFFSHORE BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT SPREADING
INTO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S. MINS WILL BE MODERATING A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
CLOUDINESS AND SCOURING OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS KEEPING MINS IN THE
30S.

THE AIRMASS SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
MILDER...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR YET ANOTHER
TRANSITION TO A DAMMING SCENARIO BY TUESDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT SAGS
SOUTH ON MONDAY...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WHICH WOULD DAMPEN/DELAY
THE POTENTIAL WARMUP INTO MID WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN A WARMUP INTO THE
50S PRE-FROPA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH RAIN WHICH WOULD PRODUCE AN IN-
SITU COOLOFF ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO MID 50S
EAST. PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL REMAIN AT LEAST IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TIMING IS NOT
VERY CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WARMING US INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND EVEN THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS DELAYED TIL LATE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE THROUGH 12Z FRI. AREAS OF
FOG/FREEZING FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE WITH LINGERING FOG AND STRATUS GIVING WAY TO
SCT/BKN CEILINGS WITH BASES 3-4 KFT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY WITH ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS LIKELY
PERSISTING INTO MID WEEK. -VINCENT/BLAES

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT/BLAES




000
FXUS62 KRAH 270227
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
926 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE IN EFFECT FROM 9PM TONIGHT
THROUGH 10 AM FRIDAY...

ANOTHER COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH LOTS
OF CONSIDERATIONS INCLUDING LOW TEMPERATURES FCST ISSUES...BLACK
ICE...FOG OR FREEZING FOG AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.

WIDESPREAD LOW OVERCAST CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON
WITH JUST A FEW BREAKS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AN APPROACHING SHEARED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL ASCENT SHOULD WORK TO
MAINTAIN A FAIR DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM/HRRR AND RAP AGGRESSIVELY COOL THE
SURFACE AND GENERATE A NOTABLE AREA OF SHALLOW STRATUS AND/OR DENSE
FOG. NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE AND THE DEGREE
OF FOG DEVELOPMENT GIVEN MIXED SIGNALS IN THE PATTERN. CONDITIONS AT
THE GROUND LEVEL ARE VERY MOIST WITH EITHER A FRESH SNOW COVER OF
WET SNOW OR MELT WATER OR JUST DAMP CONDITIONS FROM HEAVY RAIN LAST
NIGHT. SKIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR MUCH OVERNIGHT SO RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT IDEAL. IN ADDITION WEAK WEAK COOL ADVECTION OVER
A SNOW PACK GENERALLY ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. STILL SOME
FOG IS EXPECTED AND WILL BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

TO FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS...THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE TRIAD AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST AND A SHEARING SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION. HIGH RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ALSO GENERATE SOME
PRECIPITATION. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW...FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE SATURATION IS
SHALLOW BUT MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO APPROACH THE ICE NUCLEATION
REGION AND WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW. SO WEVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE
TRIAD TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE ALSO PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE NEW SNOW
COVER WHICH WOULD GENERALLY PROMOTE COOLING AND LOWER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR JUMP ALL OVER
THE LOCALIZED COOLING AND SUGGEST LOWS IN THE 10-15 RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FRESH SNOW COVER AREA. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
AND NON IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...THIS SEEMS OVERDONE. ALSO THE
RIPENESS OF THE SNOW WOULD SUGGEST A LOWER CHILLING EFFECT OF THE
SNOW COMPARED TO A NEW VIRGIN SNOW COVER. HAVE GONE WITH A FORECAST
OF LOWS RANGING FROM THE 21 TO 27 DEGREES FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST.

WITH THESE TEMPERATURES IN MIND...EXPECT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
AREA ROADS TO REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WONT FALL
BELOW FREEZING UNTIL AFTER 9PM AND EXPECT REFREEZING TO BE MOST
PROBLEMATIC AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS TO START.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TO AROUND FREEZING BY 10AM ALTHOUGH
THIS COULD BE DELAYED IF CLOUD COVER HOLDS LONGER OR LOWS TONIGHT
BOTTOM OUT EVEN FURTHER THAN FORECAST. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. -BLAES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

1044 HPA HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BE RACING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE IN FAST WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE
LATEST GFS AND NMM SHOW SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND A FLURRY
INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST LOOKS POSSIBLE...BUT MOISTURE WILL VERY
LIMITED (PW ~0.25 IN) AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND REINFORCED CAA
OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE MINS IN THE UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST...
WITH MOSTLY LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH DAMMING SETTLED IN PLACE SATURDAY
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER WELL-BELOW NORMAL DAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S...FROM
LOW 30S NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS...TO NEAR 40 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER IF SKIES ARE CLEAR ENOUGH TO
PROMOTE BETTER RADIATION...WITH TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST TO MOSTLY
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION TIMING AS SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. INITIAL COLD AIR DAMMING
SUNDAY WILL BE NUDGED OFFSHORE BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT SPREADING
INTO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S. MINS WILL BE MODERATING A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
CLOUDINESS AND SCOURING OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS KEEPING MINS IN THE
30S.

THE AIRMASS SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
MILDER...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR YET ANOTHER
TRANSITION TO A DAMMING SCENARIO BY TUESDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT SAGS
SOUTH ON MONDAY...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WHICH WOULD DAMPEN/DELAY
THE POTENTIAL WARMUP INTO MID WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN A WARMUP INTO THE
50S PRE-FROPA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH RAIN WHICH WOULD PRODUCE AN IN-
SITU COOLOFF ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO MID 50S
EAST. PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL REMAIN AT LEAST IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TIMING IS NOT
VERY CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WARMING US INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND EVEN THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS DELAYED TIL LATE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE THROUGH 12Z FRI. AREAS OF
FOG/FREEZING FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE WITH LINGERING FOG AND STRATUS GIVING WAY TO
SCT/BKN CEILINGS WITH BASES 3-4 KFT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY WITH ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS LIKELY
PERSISTING INTO MID WEEK. -VINCENT/BLAES

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT/BLAES





000
FXUS62 KRAH 262025
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE IN EFFECT FROM 9PM TONIGHT
THROUGH 10 AM FRIDAY...

ANOTHER COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH LOTS
OF CONSIDERATIONS INCLUDING LOW TEMPERATURES FCST ISSUES...BLACK
ICE...FOG OR FREEZING FOG AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.

WIDESPREAD LOW OVERCAST CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON
WITH JUST A FEW BREAKS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AN APPROACHING SHEARED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL ASCENT SHOULD WORK TO
MAINTAIN A FAIR DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM/HRRR AND RAP AGGRESSIVELY COOL THE
SURFACE AND GENERATE A NOTABLE AREA OF SHALLOW STRATUS AND/OR DENSE
FOG. NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE AND THE DEGREE
OF FOG DEVELOPMENT GIVEN MIXED SIGNALS IN THE PATTERN. CONDITIONS AT
THE GROUND LEVEL ARE VERY MOIST WITH EITHER A FRESH SNOW COVER OF
WET SNOW OR MELT WATER OR JUST DAMP CONDITIONS FROM HEAVY RAIN LAST
NIGHT. SKIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR MUCH OVERNIGHT SO RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT IDEAL. IN ADDITION WEAK WEAK COOL ADVECTION OVER
A SNOW PACK GENERALLY ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. STILL SOME
FOG IS EXPECTED AND WILL BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

TO FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS...THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE TRIAD AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST AND A SHEARING SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION. HIGH RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ALSO GENERATE SOME
PRECIPITATION. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW...FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE SATURATION IS
SHALLOW BUT MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO APPROACH THE ICE NUCLEATION
REGION AND WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW. SO WEVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE
TRIAD TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE ALSO PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE NEW SNOW
COVER WHICH WOULD GENERALLY PROMOTE COOLING AND LOWER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR JUMP ALL OVER
THE LOCALIZED COOLING AND SUGGEST LOWS IN THE 10-15 RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FRESH SNOW COVER AREA. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
AND NON IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...THIS SEEMS OVERDONE. ALSO THE
RIPENESS OF THE SNOW WOULD SUGGEST A LOWER CHILLING EFFECT OF THE
SNOW COMPARED TO A NEW VIRGIN SNOW COVER. HAVE GONE WITH A FORECAST
OF LOWS RANGING FROM THE 21 TO 27 DEGREES FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST.

WITH THESE TEMPERATURES IN MIND...EXPECT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
AREA ROADS TO REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WONT FALL
BELOW FREEZING UNTIL AFTER 9PM AND EXPECT REFREEZING TO BE MOST
PROBLEMATIC AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS TO START.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TO AROUND FREEZING BY 10AM ALTHOUGH
THIS COULD BE DELAYED IF CLOUD COVER HOLDS LONGER OR LOWS TONIGHT
BOTTOM OUT EVEN FURTHER THAN FORECAST. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. -BLAES
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

1044 HPA HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BE RACING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE IN FAST WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE
LATEST GFS AND NMM SHOW SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND A FLURRY
INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST LOOKS POSSIBLE...BUT MOISTURE WILL VERY
LIMITED (PW ~0.25 IN) AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND REINFORCED CAA
OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE MINS IN THE UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST...
WITH MOSTLY LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH DAMMING SETTLED IN PLACE SATURDAY
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER WELL-BELOW NORMAL DAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S...FROM
LOW 30S NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS...TO NEAR 40 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER IF SKIES ARE CLEAR ENOUGH TO
PROMOTE BETTER RADIATION...WITH TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST TO MOSTLY
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION TIMING AS SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. INITIAL COLD AIR DAMMING
SUNDAY WILL BE NUDGED OFFSHORE BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT SPREADING
INTO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S. MINS WILL BE MODERATING A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
CLOUDINESS AND SCOURING OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS KEEPING MINS IN THE
30S.

THE AIRMASS SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
MILDER...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR YET ANOTHER
TRANSITION TO A DAMMING SCENARIO BY TUESDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT SAGS
SOUTH ON MONDAY...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WHICH WOULD DAMPEN/DELAY
THE POTENTIAL WARMUP INTO MID WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN A WARMUP INTO THE
50S PRE-FROPA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH RAIN WHICH WOULD PRODUCE AN IN-
SITU COOLOFF ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO MID 50S
EAST. PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL REMAIN AT LEAST IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TIMING IS NOT
VERY CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WARMING US INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND EVEN THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS DELAYED TIL LATE DAY. &&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH
BKN-OVC BASES AROUND 1.5-2.0KFT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A RESIDUAL MOISTURE AIR MASS
REMAINS IN PLACE. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH THE DEGREE OF THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
AND CEILINGS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  BUT FOR FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
A FORECAST OF PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TEMPORALLY FALLING
TO THE LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH LINGERING FOG AN OVERCAST SKIES GIVING WAY TO SCT-BKN
CLOUDS WITH VFR BASES AROUND 3-3.5 KFT AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DETEIORATE
ON SUNDAY WITH ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
MID WEEK. -BLAES

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BLAES





000
FXUS62 KRAH 262025
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE IN EFFECT FROM 9PM TONIGHT
THROUGH 10 AM FRIDAY...

ANOTHER COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH LOTS
OF CONSIDERATIONS INCLUDING LOW TEMPERATURES FCST ISSUES...BLACK
ICE...FOG OR FREEZING FOG AND PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.

WIDESPREAD LOW OVERCAST CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON
WITH JUST A FEW BREAKS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. WHILE SOME
ADDITIONAL BREAKS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AN APPROACHING SHEARED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL ASCENT SHOULD WORK TO
MAINTAIN A FAIR DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM/HRRR AND RAP AGGRESSIVELY COOL THE
SURFACE AND GENERATE A NOTABLE AREA OF SHALLOW STRATUS AND/OR DENSE
FOG. NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE AND THE DEGREE
OF FOG DEVELOPMENT GIVEN MIXED SIGNALS IN THE PATTERN. CONDITIONS AT
THE GROUND LEVEL ARE VERY MOIST WITH EITHER A FRESH SNOW COVER OF
WET SNOW OR MELT WATER OR JUST DAMP CONDITIONS FROM HEAVY RAIN LAST
NIGHT. SKIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR MUCH OVERNIGHT SO RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT IDEAL. IN ADDITION WEAK WEAK COOL ADVECTION OVER
A SNOW PACK GENERALLY ISN`T FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. STILL SOME
FOG IS EXPECTED AND WILL BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST.

TO FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS...THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE TRIAD AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST AND A SHEARING SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION. HIGH RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ALSO GENERATE SOME
PRECIPITATION. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW...FEEL IT IS PRUDENT TO ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE SATURATION IS
SHALLOW BUT MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO APPROACH THE ICE NUCLEATION
REGION AND WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW. SO WEVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE
TRIAD TONIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE ALSO PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE NEW SNOW
COVER WHICH WOULD GENERALLY PROMOTE COOLING AND LOWER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR JUMP ALL OVER
THE LOCALIZED COOLING AND SUGGEST LOWS IN THE 10-15 RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FRESH SNOW COVER AREA. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
AND NON IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...THIS SEEMS OVERDONE. ALSO THE
RIPENESS OF THE SNOW WOULD SUGGEST A LOWER CHILLING EFFECT OF THE
SNOW COMPARED TO A NEW VIRGIN SNOW COVER. HAVE GONE WITH A FORECAST
OF LOWS RANGING FROM THE 21 TO 27 DEGREES FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST.

WITH THESE TEMPERATURES IN MIND...EXPECT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
AREA ROADS TO REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WONT FALL
BELOW FREEZING UNTIL AFTER 9PM AND EXPECT REFREEZING TO BE MOST
PROBLEMATIC AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS TO START.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TO AROUND FREEZING BY 10AM ALTHOUGH
THIS COULD BE DELAYED IF CLOUD COVER HOLDS LONGER OR LOWS TONIGHT
BOTTOM OUT EVEN FURTHER THAN FORECAST. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. -BLAES
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

1044 HPA HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BE RACING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE IN FAST WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE
LATEST GFS AND NMM SHOW SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND A FLURRY
INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST LOOKS POSSIBLE...BUT MOISTURE WILL VERY
LIMITED (PW ~0.25 IN) AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND REINFORCED CAA
OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE MINS IN THE UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST...
WITH MOSTLY LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH DAMMING SETTLED IN PLACE SATURDAY
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER WELL-BELOW NORMAL DAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S...FROM
LOW 30S NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS...TO NEAR 40 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER IF SKIES ARE CLEAR ENOUGH TO
PROMOTE BETTER RADIATION...WITH TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST TO MOSTLY
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION TIMING AS SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. INITIAL COLD AIR DAMMING
SUNDAY WILL BE NUDGED OFFSHORE BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT SPREADING
INTO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S. MINS WILL BE MODERATING A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
CLOUDINESS AND SCOURING OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS KEEPING MINS IN THE
30S.

THE AIRMASS SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
MILDER...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR YET ANOTHER
TRANSITION TO A DAMMING SCENARIO BY TUESDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT SAGS
SOUTH ON MONDAY...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WHICH WOULD DAMPEN/DELAY
THE POTENTIAL WARMUP INTO MID WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN A WARMUP INTO THE
50S PRE-FROPA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH RAIN WHICH WOULD PRODUCE AN IN-
SITU COOLOFF ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO MID 50S
EAST. PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL REMAIN AT LEAST IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TIMING IS NOT
VERY CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WARMING US INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND EVEN THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS DELAYED TIL LATE DAY. &&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH
BKN-OVC BASES AROUND 1.5-2.0KFT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A RESIDUAL MOISTURE AIR MASS
REMAINS IN PLACE. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH THE DEGREE OF THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
AND CEILINGS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  BUT FOR FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
A FORECAST OF PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TEMPORALLY FALLING
TO THE LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH LINGERING FOG AN OVERCAST SKIES GIVING WAY TO SCT-BKN
CLOUDS WITH VFR BASES AROUND 3-3.5 KFT AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DETEIORATE
ON SUNDAY WITH ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
MID WEEK. -BLAES

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BLAES




000
FXUS62 KRAH 261951
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
251 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THIS MORNING. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE
STORM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1025 AM THURSDAY...

     ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED BUT THREAT OF FALLING LIMBS
AND TREES CONTINUES FROM HEAVY WET SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX...

WE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR A LARGE PART OF
CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING TO COVER THE THREAT FROM FALLING TREES
AND BRANCHES AS WELL AS DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAINLY FROM
ASHEBORO...RALEIGH AND ROCKY MOUNT NORTH. THE WARNING WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON. WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER ADVISORY FOR
OUR FAR SOUTHERN TIER AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 30S.

EXPECT ONLY SOME AREAS OF LINGERING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN
WITH DRY WEATHER BUT A LOW OVERCAST FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS COMPLICATED BY THE DEGREE OF CLEARING WHICH
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON LOW TEMPERATURES. IF SKIES CLEAR...LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COULD FALL A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF THE LOWER TO MID 20S. WILL EVALUATE THIS ISSUE FOR THIS
AFTERNOONS PACKAGE. REGARDLESS OF HOW COLD IT GETS... MOISTURE...
SLUSH AN SNOW WILL LIKELY RE-FREEZE LATE TONIGHT LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE CONDITIONS. FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WE PLAN
ON ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR LATE TONIGHT-
EARLY FRI MORNING.


FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER WEAK S/W DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW.
HOWEVER... WITH PW`S LESS THAN THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH OR SO EXPECT
WE WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP. WILL KEEP MENTION OF FLURRIES IN
THE FORECAST FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT... AS THE LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
SATURATION UP CLOSE TO -10C ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC... WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CANT RULE OUT A VERY
BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER OR TWO, BUT FEEL NOTHING WILL BE MEASURABLE.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY EVENING WILL BUILD EAST AND SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO
CENTRAL NC. THIS YIELD LOW TEMPS BY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...


SATURDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE
IN THE DAY IN THE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPS AGAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL... WITH AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SOME 50+
METERS BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE LONG-TERM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS CATEGORIZED BY
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TIMING AND TYPE...WITH AT LEAST
MODEST CONFIDENCE IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING BY THE END
OF THIS PERIOD THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING RECENTLY. DRYING IS
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE 06Z GFS IN PARTICULAR AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THE 12Z GFS SEEMS TO HAVE ISSUES WITH FEEDBACK SUCH THAT THE
ECMWF IS PREFERRED OVERALL. IT SHOULD BE COLD TO START SUNDAY
MORNING AS CLOUDS INCREASE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF TREND OF A LATER
ARRIVAL OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY AND OVERALL MOISTURE INCREASE SHOULD
RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF LIQUID BY THE TIME ANY
WOULD ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY SUPPORT THIS...AND WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON RAIN SUNDAY PRIMARILY TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER FOLLOWED BY
CHANCES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE FREEZING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING WARMING ALOFT AS 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES RISE AROUND 20M DURING THE NIGHT...SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY STEADY
OR A SLOW RISE IN READINGS LATE.

A BRIEF WARMUP OCCURS MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATER IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE PATTERN
WOULD SUGGEST PRETTY CHILLY TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WITH THE 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES SUGGESTING LOWS A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING. MOS
GUIDANCE LOWS ARE AT LEAST ONE IF NOT MORE CATEGORIES ABOVE THIS...
SO FOR NOW WILL SIMPLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY BRIEFLY BEHIND THE
FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...THEN UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST MOISTURE RETURNING TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA AS THE GULF OPENS BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. IF
PRECIPITATION WOULD RETURN TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA QUICKLY ENOUGH
ON TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS WOULD EXIST DUE TO CHILLY
THICKNESSES TO START THE DAY. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY ON THE 12Z GFS...AND
FOR THE MOST PART ON THE 00Z ECMWF...THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN AND BASED ON THE WARM-AIR ADVECTION AT THE TIME WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER POTENTIAL NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SCENARIO AS ANY
COLD-AIR DAMMING ERODES. BASED ON THE PATTERN WILL ONLY NOTE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW EARLY ON THE SIXTH DAY IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT WITH A CHANCE OF JUST ALL RAIN THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ON THE 12Z GFS
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE QUITE WARM WEDNESDAY...APPROACHING 1380M ON THE
LATEST GFS AND ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THE 00Z ECMWF...SUCH THAT...
WITH SHOWERY CONDITIONS IN A MOIST AIR MASS AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD POSSIBLY REACH THE 60S THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH SOME TEMPERATURES PUSHING 70F ESPECIALLY
OVER PARTS OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH
BKN-OVC BASES AROUND 1.5-2.0KFT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A RESIDUAL MOISTURE AIR MASS
REMAINS IN PLACE. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH THE DEGREE OF THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
AND CEILINGS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
ARE RATHER MOIST WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER OF WET SNOW AND MELT
WATER OR DAMP CONDITIONS FROM HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT. SKIES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO CLEAR MUCH OVERNIGHT SO RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
IDEAL AND THERE WILL BE WEAK COOL ADVECTION SO IT IS UNCLEAR HOW
POOR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME. BUT FOR FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A
FORECAST OF PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TEMPORALLY FALLING
TO THE LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH LINGERING FOG AN OVERCAST SKIES GIVING WAY TO SCT-BKN
CLOUDS WITH VFR BASES AROUND 3-3.5 KFT AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DETEIORATE
ON SUNDAY WITH ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
MID WEEK. -BLAES

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...BLAES




000
FXUS62 KRAH 261951
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
251 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THIS MORNING. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE
STORM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1025 AM THURSDAY...

     ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED BUT THREAT OF FALLING LIMBS
AND TREES CONTINUES FROM HEAVY WET SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX...

WE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR A LARGE PART OF
CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING TO COVER THE THREAT FROM FALLING TREES
AND BRANCHES AS WELL AS DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAINLY FROM
ASHEBORO...RALEIGH AND ROCKY MOUNT NORTH. THE WARNING WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON. WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER ADVISORY FOR
OUR FAR SOUTHERN TIER AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 30S.

EXPECT ONLY SOME AREAS OF LINGERING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN
WITH DRY WEATHER BUT A LOW OVERCAST FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS COMPLICATED BY THE DEGREE OF CLEARING WHICH
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON LOW TEMPERATURES. IF SKIES CLEAR...LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COULD FALL A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF THE LOWER TO MID 20S. WILL EVALUATE THIS ISSUE FOR THIS
AFTERNOONS PACKAGE. REGARDLESS OF HOW COLD IT GETS... MOISTURE...
SLUSH AN SNOW WILL LIKELY RE-FREEZE LATE TONIGHT LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE CONDITIONS. FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WE PLAN
ON ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR LATE TONIGHT-
EARLY FRI MORNING.


FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER WEAK S/W DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW.
HOWEVER... WITH PW`S LESS THAN THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH OR SO EXPECT
WE WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP. WILL KEEP MENTION OF FLURRIES IN
THE FORECAST FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT... AS THE LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
SATURATION UP CLOSE TO -10C ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC... WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CANT RULE OUT A VERY
BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER OR TWO, BUT FEEL NOTHING WILL BE MEASURABLE.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY EVENING WILL BUILD EAST AND SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO
CENTRAL NC. THIS YIELD LOW TEMPS BY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...


SATURDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE
IN THE DAY IN THE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPS AGAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL... WITH AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SOME 50+
METERS BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE LONG-TERM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS CATEGORIZED BY
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TIMING AND TYPE...WITH AT LEAST
MODEST CONFIDENCE IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING BY THE END
OF THIS PERIOD THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING RECENTLY. DRYING IS
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE 06Z GFS IN PARTICULAR AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THE 12Z GFS SEEMS TO HAVE ISSUES WITH FEEDBACK SUCH THAT THE
ECMWF IS PREFERRED OVERALL. IT SHOULD BE COLD TO START SUNDAY
MORNING AS CLOUDS INCREASE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF TREND OF A LATER
ARRIVAL OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY AND OVERALL MOISTURE INCREASE SHOULD
RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF LIQUID BY THE TIME ANY
WOULD ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY SUPPORT THIS...AND WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON RAIN SUNDAY PRIMARILY TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER FOLLOWED BY
CHANCES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE FREEZING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING WARMING ALOFT AS 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES RISE AROUND 20M DURING THE NIGHT...SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY STEADY
OR A SLOW RISE IN READINGS LATE.

A BRIEF WARMUP OCCURS MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATER IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE PATTERN
WOULD SUGGEST PRETTY CHILLY TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WITH THE 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES SUGGESTING LOWS A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING. MOS
GUIDANCE LOWS ARE AT LEAST ONE IF NOT MORE CATEGORIES ABOVE THIS...
SO FOR NOW WILL SIMPLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY BRIEFLY BEHIND THE
FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...THEN UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST MOISTURE RETURNING TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA AS THE GULF OPENS BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. IF
PRECIPITATION WOULD RETURN TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA QUICKLY ENOUGH
ON TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS WOULD EXIST DUE TO CHILLY
THICKNESSES TO START THE DAY. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY ON THE 12Z GFS...AND
FOR THE MOST PART ON THE 00Z ECMWF...THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN AND BASED ON THE WARM-AIR ADVECTION AT THE TIME WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER POTENTIAL NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SCENARIO AS ANY
COLD-AIR DAMMING ERODES. BASED ON THE PATTERN WILL ONLY NOTE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW EARLY ON THE SIXTH DAY IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT WITH A CHANCE OF JUST ALL RAIN THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ON THE 12Z GFS
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE QUITE WARM WEDNESDAY...APPROACHING 1380M ON THE
LATEST GFS AND ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THE 00Z ECMWF...SUCH THAT...
WITH SHOWERY CONDITIONS IN A MOIST AIR MASS AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD POSSIBLY REACH THE 60S THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH SOME TEMPERATURES PUSHING 70F ESPECIALLY
OVER PARTS OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH
BKN-OVC BASES AROUND 1.5-2.0KFT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A RESIDUAL MOISTURE AIR MASS
REMAINS IN PLACE. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH THE DEGREE OF THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
AND CEILINGS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
ARE RATHER MOIST WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER OF WET SNOW AND MELT
WATER OR DAMP CONDITIONS FROM HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT. SKIES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO CLEAR MUCH OVERNIGHT SO RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
IDEAL AND THERE WILL BE WEAK COOL ADVECTION SO IT IS UNCLEAR HOW
POOR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME. BUT FOR FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A
FORECAST OF PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS TEMPORALLY FALLING
TO THE LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH LINGERING FOG AN OVERCAST SKIES GIVING WAY TO SCT-BKN
CLOUDS WITH VFR BASES AROUND 3-3.5 KFT AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DETEIORATE
ON SUNDAY WITH ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING INTO
MID WEEK. -BLAES

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...BLAES





000
FXUS62 KRAH 261529
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1025 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THIS MORNING. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE
STORM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM THURSDAY...

...ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED BUT THREAT OF FALLING LIMBS
AND TREES CONTINUES FROM HEAVY WET SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX...

WE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR A LARGE PART OF
CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING TO COVER THE THREAT FROM FALLING TREES
AND BRANCHES AS WELL AS DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAINLY FROM
ASHEBORO...RALEIGH AND ROCKY MOUNT NORTH. THE WARNING WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON. WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER ADVISORY FOR
OUR FAR SOUTHERN TIER AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 30S.

EXPECT ONLY SOME AREAS OF LINGERING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN
WITH DRY WEATHER BUT A LOW OVERCAST FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS COMPLICATED BY THE DEGREE OF CLEARING WHICH
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON LOW TEMPERATURES. IF SKIES CLEAR...LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COULD FALL A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF THE LOWER TO MID 20S. WILL EVALUATE THIS ISSUE FOR THIS
AFTERNOONS PACKAGE. REGARDLESS OF HOW COLD IT GETS... MOISTURE...
SLUSH AN SNOW WILL LIKELY RE-FREEZE LATE TONIGHT LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE CONDITIONS. FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WE PLAN
ON ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR LATE TONIGHT-
EARLY FRI MORNING. -BLAES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER WEAK S/W DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW.
HOWEVER... WITH PW`S LESS THAN THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH OR SO EXPECT
WE WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP. WILL KEEP MENTION OF FLURRIES IN
THE FORECAST FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT... AS THE LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
SATURATION UP CLOSE TO -10C ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC... WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CANT RULE OUT A VERY
BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER OR TWO, BUT FEEL NOTHING WILL BE MEASURABLE.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY EVENING WILL BUILD EAST AND SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO
CENTRAL NC. THIS YIELD LOW TEMPS BY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ACROSS THE AREA.

SATURDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE
IN THE DAY IN THE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPS AGAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL... WITH AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SOME 50+
METERS BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE LONG-TERM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS CATEGORIZED BY
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TIMING AND TYPE...WITH AT LEAST
MODEST CONFIDENCE IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING BY THE END
OF THIS PERIOD THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING RECENTLY. DRYING IS
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE 06Z GFS IN PARTICULAR AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THE 12Z GFS SEEMS TO HAVE ISSUES WITH FEEDBACK SUCH THAT THE
ECMWF IS PREFERRED OVERALL. IT SHOULD BE COLD TO START SUNDAY
MORNING AS CLOUDS INCREASE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF TREND OF A LATER
ARRIVAL OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY AND OVERALL MOISTURE INCREASE SHOULD
RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF LIQUID BY THE TIME ANY
WOULD ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY SUPPORT THIS...AND WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON RAIN SUNDAY PRIMARILY TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER FOLLOWED BY
CHANCES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE FREEZING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING WARMING ALOFT AS 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES RISE AROUND 20M DURING THE NIGHT...SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY STEADY
OR A SLOW RISE IN READINGS LATE.

A BRIEF WARMUP OCCURS MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATER IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE PATTERN
WOULD SUGGEST PRETTY CHILLY TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WITH THE 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES SUGGESTING LOWS A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING. MOS
GUIDANCE LOWS ARE AT LEAST ONE IF NOT MORE CATEGORIES ABOVE THIS...
SO FOR NOW WILL SIMPLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY BRIEFLY BEHIND THE
FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...THEN UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST MOISTURE RETURNING TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA AS THE GULF OPENS BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. IF
PRECIPITATION WOULD RETURN TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA QUICKLY ENOUGH
ON TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS WOULD EXIST DUE TO CHILLY
THICKNESSES TO START THE DAY. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY ON THE 12Z GFS...AND
FOR THE MOST PART ON THE 00Z ECMWF...THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN AND BASED ON THE WARM-AIR ADVECTION AT THE TIME WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER POTENTIAL NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SCENARIO AS ANY
COLD-AIR DAMMING ERODES. BASED ON THE PATTERN WILL ONLY NOTE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW EARLY ON THE SIXTH DAY IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT WITH A CHANCE OF JUST ALL RAIN THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ON THE 12Z GFS
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE QUITE WARM WEDNESDAY...APPROACHING 1380M ON THE
LATEST GFS AND ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THE 00Z ECMWF...SUCH THAT...
WITH SHOWERY CONDITIONS IN A MOIST AIR MASS AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD POSSIBLY REACH THE 60S THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH SOME TEMPERATURES PUSHING 70F ESPECIALLY
OVER PARTS OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

&&


.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM THURSDAY...

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS NEXT 24 HRS: IFR CIGS TRENDING TO MVFR
THIS MORNING... LASTING THROUGH 00Z-03Z THU (THIS EVENING)... AND
MAINLY IFR VSBYS WITHIN WINTRY PRECIP THROUGH 13Z-15Z.

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OFF THE SC COAST WILL TRACK NE THROUGH MID
MORNING... REACHING JUST OFF CAPE HATTERAS AROUND 13Z... THEN
CONTINUING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE NC COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BANDS OF MOSTLY WINTRY PRECIP (MAINLY SNOW AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI AND
MAINLY RAIN AT FAY) WILL TAPER DOWN TO FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE
ENDING FROM SW TO NE THIS MORNING... 14Z-16Z AT INT/GSO TRENDING TO
16Z-18Z AT RWI. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR AT ALL SITES UNTIL
EARLY THIS EVENING... WHEN CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR. BUT UNCERTAINTY
GROWS LATE TONIGHT AS WE KEEP VERY HIGH MOISTURE (HIGH RH VALUES)
NEAR THE GROUND... SUGGESTING THAT AS WINDS GO LIGHT/VARIABLE WE`LL
SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR SUB-VFR FOG OVERNIGHT. RUNWAYS
ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TREACHEROUS
THROUGH AND BEYOND THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z EARLY FRI MORNING: MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI... THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR FRI NIGHT...
EXCEPT AT GSO/INT WHERE REDEVELOPMENT OF SUB-VFR CIGS IS EXPECTED
WITH AN EASTERLY WIND AS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO CENTRAL NC
FROM THE NORTH. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH
SUNDAY... BUT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST MAY BRING MORE IFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIP SUN NIGHT/MON.
-GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ083>086-
088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 261529
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1025 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THIS MORNING. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE
STORM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM THURSDAY...

...ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED BUT THREAT OF FALLING LIMBS
AND TREES CONTINUES FROM HEAVY WET SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX...

WE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR A LARGE PART OF
CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING TO COVER THE THREAT FROM FALLING TREES
AND BRANCHES AS WELL AS DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAINLY FROM
ASHEBORO...RALEIGH AND ROCKY MOUNT NORTH. THE WARNING WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON. WE WILL CANCEL THE WINTER ADVISORY FOR
OUR FAR SOUTHERN TIER AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 30S.

EXPECT ONLY SOME AREAS OF LINGERING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN
WITH DRY WEATHER BUT A LOW OVERCAST FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS COMPLICATED BY THE DEGREE OF CLEARING WHICH
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON LOW TEMPERATURES. IF SKIES CLEAR...LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COULD FALL A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF THE LOWER TO MID 20S. WILL EVALUATE THIS ISSUE FOR THIS
AFTERNOONS PACKAGE. REGARDLESS OF HOW COLD IT GETS... MOISTURE...
SLUSH AN SNOW WILL LIKELY RE-FREEZE LATE TONIGHT LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE CONDITIONS. FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WE PLAN
ON ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE FOR LATE TONIGHT-
EARLY FRI MORNING. -BLAES

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER WEAK S/W DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW.
HOWEVER... WITH PW`S LESS THAN THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH OR SO EXPECT
WE WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP. WILL KEEP MENTION OF FLURRIES IN
THE FORECAST FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT... AS THE LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
SATURATION UP CLOSE TO -10C ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC... WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CANT RULE OUT A VERY
BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER OR TWO, BUT FEEL NOTHING WILL BE MEASURABLE.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH TO
NEAR 40 SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY EVENING WILL BUILD EAST AND SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO
CENTRAL NC. THIS YIELD LOW TEMPS BY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ACROSS THE AREA.

SATURDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE
IN THE DAY IN THE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPS AGAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL... WITH AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SOME 50+
METERS BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE LONG-TERM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS CATEGORIZED BY
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TIMING AND TYPE...WITH AT LEAST
MODEST CONFIDENCE IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING BY THE END
OF THIS PERIOD THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING RECENTLY. DRYING IS
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE 06Z GFS IN PARTICULAR AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THE 12Z GFS SEEMS TO HAVE ISSUES WITH FEEDBACK SUCH THAT THE
ECMWF IS PREFERRED OVERALL. IT SHOULD BE COLD TO START SUNDAY
MORNING AS CLOUDS INCREASE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF TREND OF A LATER
ARRIVAL OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY AND OVERALL MOISTURE INCREASE SHOULD
RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BEING IN THE FORM OF LIQUID BY THE TIME ANY
WOULD ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY SUPPORT THIS...AND WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON RAIN SUNDAY PRIMARILY TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER FOLLOWED BY
CHANCES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE FREEZING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING WARMING ALOFT AS 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES RISE AROUND 20M DURING THE NIGHT...SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY STEADY
OR A SLOW RISE IN READINGS LATE.

A BRIEF WARMUP OCCURS MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATER IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE PATTERN
WOULD SUGGEST PRETTY CHILLY TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WITH THE 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES SUGGESTING LOWS A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING. MOS
GUIDANCE LOWS ARE AT LEAST ONE IF NOT MORE CATEGORIES ABOVE THIS...
SO FOR NOW WILL SIMPLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY BRIEFLY BEHIND THE
FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...THEN UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST MOISTURE RETURNING TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA AS THE GULF OPENS BY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. IF
PRECIPITATION WOULD RETURN TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA QUICKLY ENOUGH
ON TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION TYPE CONCERNS WOULD EXIST DUE TO CHILLY
THICKNESSES TO START THE DAY. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY ON THE 12Z GFS...AND
FOR THE MOST PART ON THE 00Z ECMWF...THICKNESSES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN AND BASED ON THE WARM-AIR ADVECTION AT THE TIME WOULD
ANTICIPATE ANOTHER POTENTIAL NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SCENARIO AS ANY
COLD-AIR DAMMING ERODES. BASED ON THE PATTERN WILL ONLY NOTE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW EARLY ON THE SIXTH DAY IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT WITH A CHANCE OF JUST ALL RAIN THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ON THE 12Z GFS
AND 00Z ECMWF ARE QUITE WARM WEDNESDAY...APPROACHING 1380M ON THE
LATEST GFS AND ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THE 00Z ECMWF...SUCH THAT...
WITH SHOWERY CONDITIONS IN A MOIST AIR MASS AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD POSSIBLY REACH THE 60S THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH SOME TEMPERATURES PUSHING 70F ESPECIALLY
OVER PARTS OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

&&


.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM THURSDAY...

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS NEXT 24 HRS: IFR CIGS TRENDING TO MVFR
THIS MORNING... LASTING THROUGH 00Z-03Z THU (THIS EVENING)... AND
MAINLY IFR VSBYS WITHIN WINTRY PRECIP THROUGH 13Z-15Z.

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OFF THE SC COAST WILL TRACK NE THROUGH MID
MORNING... REACHING JUST OFF CAPE HATTERAS AROUND 13Z... THEN
CONTINUING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE NC COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BANDS OF MOSTLY WINTRY PRECIP (MAINLY SNOW AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI AND
MAINLY RAIN AT FAY) WILL TAPER DOWN TO FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE
ENDING FROM SW TO NE THIS MORNING... 14Z-16Z AT INT/GSO TRENDING TO
16Z-18Z AT RWI. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR AT ALL SITES UNTIL
EARLY THIS EVENING... WHEN CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR. BUT UNCERTAINTY
GROWS LATE TONIGHT AS WE KEEP VERY HIGH MOISTURE (HIGH RH VALUES)
NEAR THE GROUND... SUGGESTING THAT AS WINDS GO LIGHT/VARIABLE WE`LL
SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR SUB-VFR FOG OVERNIGHT. RUNWAYS
ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TREACHEROUS
THROUGH AND BEYOND THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

LOOKING BEYOND 12Z EARLY FRI MORNING: MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI... THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TO VFR FRI NIGHT...
EXCEPT AT GSO/INT WHERE REDEVELOPMENT OF SUB-VFR CIGS IS EXPECTED
WITH AN EASTERLY WIND AS CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO CENTRAL NC
FROM THE NORTH. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH
SUNDAY... BUT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST MAY BRING MORE IFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIP SUN NIGHT/MON.
-GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ083>086-
088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




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