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000
FXUS62 KRAH 262358
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
658 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE COASTAL LOW CURRENTLY SITS JUST OFF THE NRN OUTER BANKS OF NC...
MOVING STEADILY NORTHWARD. THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX RIDING NE ON
THE SW SIDE OF THE BROAD RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SHEAR AND WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NC/VA... AND THIS DWINDLING FORCING FOR
ASCENT COUPLED WITH WANING UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOWER PW FROM WEST
TO EAST ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DOWNTURN IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF RAINFALL... AS WELL AS THE INCREASING SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE WRN AND SRN CWA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE... WITH RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... YIELDING LITTLE OR NO
RAIN CHANCES IN CENTRAL NC AFTER 6 PM OR 7 PM OR SO. BUT ATTENTION
IMMEDIATELY TURNS TO THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING RAPIDLY
THROUGH THE MID MISS VALLEY... EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THU... ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN NC. LATEST
SHORT-RANGE HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP THE ONSET OF LIGHT
RAIN OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...AND BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF UPSTREAM
PRECIP...THIS LOOKS VERY REASONABLE. WILL BRING IN SLIGHT CHANCES OF
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT BY MID-LATE EVENING...THEN
FOLLOWING THE CONSENSUS OF LATEST MODEL OUTPUT...WILL SPREAD 20-50%
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT AND NRN COASTAL PLAIN LATER
TONIGHT... CONTINUING THROUGH THU MORNING... FOLLOWED BY AN EXIT OF
THE PRECIP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST CWA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE MOSTLY SHOWERY IN NATURE...GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT AS 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE
STILL PROJECTED TO BE 7.0-7.5 C/KM. AS SUCH...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DYNAMIC
CONTRIBUTION TO LIFT FROM THE INCOMING VORTICITY MAX AND IMPROVING
UPPER DIVERGENCE DUE TO WIND ACCELERATION OVER SC AND SRN NC. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SMALL... GENERALLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS... ALTHOUGH TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE
VA BORDER COUNTIES COULD SEE A COUPLE TENTHS... AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GREATER SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. CONSENSUS OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LOWS TONIGHT
OF 34-37. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING MAINLY NEAR THE VA
BORDER... BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SREF PLUMES AT DANVILLE SUGGEST
A THREAT TOO LOW TO MENTION... AND ANYTHING THAT FELL WOULD GENERATE
NO IMPACT. EXPECT IMPROVING SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY... WITH MORE
OVERALL INSOLATION SOUTH THAN NORTH... BUT STILL ANTICIPATE COOL
HIGHS RANGING FROM 48 NORTH TO 55 FAR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

THU NIGHT: THE VORTICITY MAX AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE
HEADING EAST OFF THE COAST BY THU EVENING... AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST... WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES EARLY WITH
DECREASING WINDS. LOWS AT THE MID RANGE OF GUIDANCE... 25-30... WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. -GIH

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE DEEP SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF OF THE
COAST. FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH...IN WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON
THE HIGH WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...CALMING ANY REMAINING WIND.
CLOUD COVER LEFT OVER FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL FILTER OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST. THUS EXPECT LOWEST TEMPS IN THE NE AND HIGHEST IN THE
SW. COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50
DEGREES. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S WITH FEW CLOUDS AND CALM WINDS. -ELLIS

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA SETTING UP RETURN FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL
BE THE MAIN DRIVER AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS VERY ZONAL. ALTHOUGH
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF AGREE THAT IT WILL BE WARMER...THE
QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH? WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA...RISING THICKNESSES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...CANT SEE HOW TEMPERATURES WONT RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE HAVE GONE TO THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WHICH IN THIS CASE IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE LONG RANGE ECMWF NUMBERS
FOR MAX TEMPS THROUGH MONDAY. SPECIFICALLY MID TO UPPER 50S
SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
MONDAY. LOWS WILL ALSO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MORE
MODESTLY...UPPER 30S INCREASING TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FALLING SLIGHTLY BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT DRAPED TO OUR NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE LAST PART OF THE LONG TERM INTRODUCES
A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE HANDLING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT AS THE PARENT LOW IS IS QUICKLY HAULED AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST BY THE NORTHERN STREAM JET...LEAVING A WEAKLY DEFINED
FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH TEH FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING WHEN
A FAIRLY STRONG 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC.
THIS LOCATION IS FURTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND IS
NOT QUITE AS IDEAL FOR A CLASSICAL/HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT AS
IT WAS YESTERDAY. STILL THINK SOME FORM OF A WEAK CAD IS POSSIBLE
AND THUS KEEPING HIGHS ON TUESDAY FAIRLY LOW AS WE SHOULD BE
OVERCAST WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S
BUT STILL COULD BE LOWER IN THE TRIAD IF WEDGE DEVELOPS. THIS HIGH
WILL NOT REMAIN IN PLACE FOR VERY LONG AS IT IS QUICKLY MOVES OUT TO
SEA BY A DEVELOPING LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL SET UP A SLIGHTLY WARMER
DAY ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS LONG AS THE WEDGE DISSIPATES. MID 50S TO MID 60S NW TO SE. PRECIP
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT BUT WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS DURING THIS
TIME IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE MAJORITY OF
CENTRAL NC AS OF 00Z THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHERN VA OVERNIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING. A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 06-12Z THU AT
THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BE LESS LIKELY AT
THE RDU/RWI TERMINALS...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 09-
15Z THU. FURTHER SOUTH OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE AT THE FAY
TERMINAL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. CALM OR LIGHT/
VARIABLE WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME WNW/NW AT 10-
15 KT BETWEEN 15-18Z THU AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THU AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT
NIGHT AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE NEXT
IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD/ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 262358
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
658 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE COASTAL LOW CURRENTLY SITS JUST OFF THE NRN OUTER BANKS OF NC...
MOVING STEADILY NORTHWARD. THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX RIDING NE ON
THE SW SIDE OF THE BROAD RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SHEAR AND WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NC/VA... AND THIS DWINDLING FORCING FOR
ASCENT COUPLED WITH WANING UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOWER PW FROM WEST
TO EAST ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DOWNTURN IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF RAINFALL... AS WELL AS THE INCREASING SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE WRN AND SRN CWA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE... WITH RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... YIELDING LITTLE OR NO
RAIN CHANCES IN CENTRAL NC AFTER 6 PM OR 7 PM OR SO. BUT ATTENTION
IMMEDIATELY TURNS TO THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING RAPIDLY
THROUGH THE MID MISS VALLEY... EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THU... ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN NC. LATEST
SHORT-RANGE HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP THE ONSET OF LIGHT
RAIN OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...AND BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF UPSTREAM
PRECIP...THIS LOOKS VERY REASONABLE. WILL BRING IN SLIGHT CHANCES OF
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT BY MID-LATE EVENING...THEN
FOLLOWING THE CONSENSUS OF LATEST MODEL OUTPUT...WILL SPREAD 20-50%
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT AND NRN COASTAL PLAIN LATER
TONIGHT... CONTINUING THROUGH THU MORNING... FOLLOWED BY AN EXIT OF
THE PRECIP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST CWA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE MOSTLY SHOWERY IN NATURE...GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT AS 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE
STILL PROJECTED TO BE 7.0-7.5 C/KM. AS SUCH...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DYNAMIC
CONTRIBUTION TO LIFT FROM THE INCOMING VORTICITY MAX AND IMPROVING
UPPER DIVERGENCE DUE TO WIND ACCELERATION OVER SC AND SRN NC. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SMALL... GENERALLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS... ALTHOUGH TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE
VA BORDER COUNTIES COULD SEE A COUPLE TENTHS... AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GREATER SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. CONSENSUS OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LOWS TONIGHT
OF 34-37. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING MAINLY NEAR THE VA
BORDER... BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SREF PLUMES AT DANVILLE SUGGEST
A THREAT TOO LOW TO MENTION... AND ANYTHING THAT FELL WOULD GENERATE
NO IMPACT. EXPECT IMPROVING SUNSHINE LATE IN THE DAY... WITH MORE
OVERALL INSOLATION SOUTH THAN NORTH... BUT STILL ANTICIPATE COOL
HIGHS RANGING FROM 48 NORTH TO 55 FAR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

THU NIGHT: THE VORTICITY MAX AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE
HEADING EAST OFF THE COAST BY THU EVENING... AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST... WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES EARLY WITH
DECREASING WINDS. LOWS AT THE MID RANGE OF GUIDANCE... 25-30... WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. -GIH

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE DEEP SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF OF THE
COAST. FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH...IN WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON
THE HIGH WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...CALMING ANY REMAINING WIND.
CLOUD COVER LEFT OVER FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL FILTER OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST. THUS EXPECT LOWEST TEMPS IN THE NE AND HIGHEST IN THE
SW. COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50
DEGREES. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S WITH FEW CLOUDS AND CALM WINDS. -ELLIS

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA SETTING UP RETURN FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL
BE THE MAIN DRIVER AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS VERY ZONAL. ALTHOUGH
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF AGREE THAT IT WILL BE WARMER...THE
QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH? WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA...RISING THICKNESSES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...CANT SEE HOW TEMPERATURES WONT RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE HAVE GONE TO THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WHICH IN THIS CASE IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE LONG RANGE ECMWF NUMBERS
FOR MAX TEMPS THROUGH MONDAY. SPECIFICALLY MID TO UPPER 50S
SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
MONDAY. LOWS WILL ALSO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MORE
MODESTLY...UPPER 30S INCREASING TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FALLING SLIGHTLY BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT DRAPED TO OUR NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE LAST PART OF THE LONG TERM INTRODUCES
A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE HANDLING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT AS THE PARENT LOW IS IS QUICKLY HAULED AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST BY THE NORTHERN STREAM JET...LEAVING A WEAKLY DEFINED
FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH TEH FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING WHEN
A FAIRLY STRONG 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC.
THIS LOCATION IS FURTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND IS
NOT QUITE AS IDEAL FOR A CLASSICAL/HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT AS
IT WAS YESTERDAY. STILL THINK SOME FORM OF A WEAK CAD IS POSSIBLE
AND THUS KEEPING HIGHS ON TUESDAY FAIRLY LOW AS WE SHOULD BE
OVERCAST WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S
BUT STILL COULD BE LOWER IN THE TRIAD IF WEDGE DEVELOPS. THIS HIGH
WILL NOT REMAIN IN PLACE FOR VERY LONG AS IT IS QUICKLY MOVES OUT TO
SEA BY A DEVELOPING LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL SET UP A SLIGHTLY WARMER
DAY ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS LONG AS THE WEDGE DISSIPATES. MID 50S TO MID 60S NW TO SE. PRECIP
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT BUT WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS DURING THIS
TIME IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM WEDNESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE MAJORITY OF
CENTRAL NC AS OF 00Z THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHERN VA OVERNIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING. A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 06-12Z THU AT
THE INT/GSO TERMINALS. THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BE LESS LIKELY AT
THE RDU/RWI TERMINALS...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 09-
15Z THU. FURTHER SOUTH OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE AT THE FAY
TERMINAL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. CALM OR LIGHT/
VARIABLE WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME WNW/NW AT 10-
15 KT BETWEEN 15-18Z THU AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THU AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT
NIGHT AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE NEXT
IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD/ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 262024
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE COASTAL LOW CURRENTLY SITS JUST OFF THE NRN OUTER BANKS OF NC...
MOVING STEADILY NORTHWARD. THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX RIDING NE ON
THE SW SIDE OF THE BROAD RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SHEAR AND WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NC/VA... AND THIS DWINDLING FORCING FOR
ASCENT COUPLED WITH WANING UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOWER PW FROM WEST
TO EAST ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DOWNTURN IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF RAINFALL... AS WELL AS THE INCREASING SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE WRN AND SRN CWA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE... WITH RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... YIELDING LITTLE OR NO
RAIN CHANCES IN CENTRAL NC AFTER 6 PM OR 7 PM OR SO. BUT ATTENTION
IMMEDIATELY TURNS TO THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING RAPIDLY
THROUGH THE MID MISS VALLEY... EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THU... ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN NC. LATEST
SHORT-RANGE HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP THE ONSET OF LIGHT
RAIN OVER OUR FORECAST AREA... AND BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF
UPSTREAM PRECIP... THIS LOOKS VERY REASONABLE. WILL BRING IN SLIGHT
CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT BY MID-LATE
EVENING... THEN FOLLOWING THE CONSENSUS OF LATEST MODEL OUTPUT...
WILL SPREAD 20-50% RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT AND NRN
COASTAL PLAIN LATER TONIGHT... CONTINUING THROUGH THU MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY AN EXIT OF THE PRECIP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST CWA DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE MOSTLY SHOWERY IN
NATURE... GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT AS 850-500
MB LAPSE RATES ARE STILL PROJECTED TO BE 7.0-7.5 C/KM. AS SUCH...
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES... ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE DYNAMIC CONTRIBUTION TO LIFT FROM THE INCOMING VORTICITY
MAX AND IMPROVING UPPER DIVERGENCE DUE TO WIND ACCELERATION OVER SC
AND SRN NC. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
SMALL... GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS... ALTHOUGH TRENDS
WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE VA BORDER COUNTIES COULD SEE A COUPLE
TENTHS... AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GREATER SATURATION IN THE LOW
LEVELS AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CONSENSUS OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS LOWS TONIGHT OF 34-37. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE THAT
WE COULD SEE A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING
MAINLY NEAR THE VA BORDER... BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SREF PLUMES
AT DANVILLE SUGGEST A THREAT TOO LOW TO MENTION... AND ANYTHING THAT
FELL WOULD GENERATE NO IMPACT. EXPECT IMPROVING SUNSHINE LATE IN THE
DAY... WITH MORE OVERALL INSOLATION SOUTH THAN NORTH... BUT STILL
ANTICIPATE COOL HIGHS RANGING FROM 48 NORTH TO 55 FAR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

THU NIGHT: THE VORTICITY MAX AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE
HEADING EAST OFF THE COAST BY THU EVENING... AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST... WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES EARLY WITH
DECREASING WINDS. LOWS AT THE MID RANGE OF GUIDANCE... 25-30... WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. -GIH

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE DEEP SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF OF THE
COAST. FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH...IN WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON
THE HIGH WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...CALMING ANY REMAINING WIND.
CLOUD COVER LEFT OVER FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL FILTER OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST. THUS EXPECT LOWEST TEMPS IN THE NE AND HIGHEST IN THE
SW. COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50
DEGREES. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S WITH FEW CLOUDS AND CALM WINDS. -ELLIS

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA SETTING UP RETURN FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL
BE THE MAIN DRIVER AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS VERY ZONAL. ALTHOUGH
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF AGREE THAT IT WILL BE WARMER...THE
QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH? WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA...RISING THICKNESSES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...CANT SEE HOW TEMPERATURES WONT RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE HAVE GONE TO THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WHICH IN THIS CASE IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE LONG RANGE ECMWF NUMBERS
FOR MAX TEMPS THROUGH MONDAY. SPECIFICALLY MID TO UPPER 50S
SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
MONDAY. LOWS WILL ALSO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MORE
MODESTLY...UPPER 30S INCREASING TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FALLING SLIGHTLY BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT DRAPED TO OUR NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE LAST PART OF THE LONG TERM INTRODUCES
A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE HANDLING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT AS THE PARENT LOW IS IS QUICKLY HAULED AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST BY THE NORTHERN STREAM JET...LEAVING A WEAKLY DEFINED
FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH TEH FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING WHEN
A FAIRLY STRONG 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC.
THIS LOCATION IS FURTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND IS
NOT QUITE AS IDEAL FOR A CLASSICAL/HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT AS
IT WAS YESTERDAY. STILL THINK SOME FORM OF A WEAK CAD IS POSSIBLE
AND THUS KEEPING HIGHS ON TUESDAY FAIRLY LOW AS WE SHOULD BE
OVERCAST WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S
BUT STILL COULD BE LOWER IN THE TRIAD IF WEDGE DEVELOPS. THIS HIGH
WILL NOT REMAIN IN PLACE FOR VERY LONG AS IT IS QUICKLY MOVES OUT TO
SEA BY A DEVELOPING LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL SET UP A SLIGHTLY WARMER
DAY ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS LONG AS THE WEDGE DISSIPATES. MID 50S TO MID 60S NW TO SE. PRECIP
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT BUT WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS DURING THIS
TIME IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1220 PM WEDNESDAY...

EXPECTED AVIATION CONDITIONS: POOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... BECOME
FAIR TO GOOD THIS EVENING... BRIEFLY POOR AT NORTHERN SITES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING... THEN GOOD BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON.
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS: LOW CIGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
LATER TONIGHT.

CURRENT MVFR CIGS AT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS (EXCEPT BRIEFLY IFR
ESPECIALLY AT GSO/RDU) WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. AREAS OF
RAIN CONTINUE BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS DEPARTED... THUS VSBYS ARE
NOW MOSTLY VFR. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 19Z
AND 23Z AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE FAR WRN
PIEDMONT OF NC TRACKS QUICKLY TO THE NE AND MOVES AWAY FROM NC LATER
TODAY. BRIEF MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING... THEN
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION...
TRACKING ROUGHLY ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER... FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THU MORNING. IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT GSO/INT AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT UNTIL LATE MORNING THU... AND MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
RDU/RWI THU MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. BRISK
WINDS MAINLY FROM THE NORTH WILL BE OF CONCERN AT ALL SITES THROUGH
21Z TONIGHT... THEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS UP TO 8-12 KTS POSSIBLE THU MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z THU... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
THROUGH MON... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD/ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 262024
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS EVENING. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE COASTAL LOW CURRENTLY SITS JUST OFF THE NRN OUTER BANKS OF NC...
MOVING STEADILY NORTHWARD. THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX RIDING NE ON
THE SW SIDE OF THE BROAD RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SHEAR AND WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NC/VA... AND THIS DWINDLING FORCING FOR
ASCENT COUPLED WITH WANING UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOWER PW FROM WEST
TO EAST ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DOWNTURN IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF RAINFALL... AS WELL AS THE INCREASING SUNSHINE ACROSS
THE WRN AND SRN CWA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE... WITH RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... YIELDING LITTLE OR NO
RAIN CHANCES IN CENTRAL NC AFTER 6 PM OR 7 PM OR SO. BUT ATTENTION
IMMEDIATELY TURNS TO THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING RAPIDLY
THROUGH THE MID MISS VALLEY... EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THU... ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN NC. LATEST
SHORT-RANGE HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP THE ONSET OF LIGHT
RAIN OVER OUR FORECAST AREA... AND BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF
UPSTREAM PRECIP... THIS LOOKS VERY REASONABLE. WILL BRING IN SLIGHT
CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT BY MID-LATE
EVENING... THEN FOLLOWING THE CONSENSUS OF LATEST MODEL OUTPUT...
WILL SPREAD 20-50% RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NRN PIEDMONT AND NRN
COASTAL PLAIN LATER TONIGHT... CONTINUING THROUGH THU MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY AN EXIT OF THE PRECIP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST CWA DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE MOSTLY SHOWERY IN
NATURE... GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT AS 850-500
MB LAPSE RATES ARE STILL PROJECTED TO BE 7.0-7.5 C/KM. AS SUCH...
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES... ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE DYNAMIC CONTRIBUTION TO LIFT FROM THE INCOMING VORTICITY
MAX AND IMPROVING UPPER DIVERGENCE DUE TO WIND ACCELERATION OVER SC
AND SRN NC. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
SMALL... GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS... ALTHOUGH TRENDS
WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE VA BORDER COUNTIES COULD SEE A COUPLE
TENTHS... AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GREATER SATURATION IN THE LOW
LEVELS AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CONSENSUS OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS LOWS TONIGHT OF 34-37. THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE THAT
WE COULD SEE A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING
MAINLY NEAR THE VA BORDER... BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SREF PLUMES
AT DANVILLE SUGGEST A THREAT TOO LOW TO MENTION... AND ANYTHING THAT
FELL WOULD GENERATE NO IMPACT. EXPECT IMPROVING SUNSHINE LATE IN THE
DAY... WITH MORE OVERALL INSOLATION SOUTH THAN NORTH... BUT STILL
ANTICIPATE COOL HIGHS RANGING FROM 48 NORTH TO 55 FAR SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...

THU NIGHT: THE VORTICITY MAX AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE
HEADING EAST OFF THE COAST BY THU EVENING... AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST... WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES EARLY WITH
DECREASING WINDS. LOWS AT THE MID RANGE OF GUIDANCE... 25-30... WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. -GIH

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE DEEP SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF OF THE
COAST. FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH...IN WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON
THE HIGH WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...CALMING ANY REMAINING WIND.
CLOUD COVER LEFT OVER FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL FILTER OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST. THUS EXPECT LOWEST TEMPS IN THE NE AND HIGHEST IN THE
SW. COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50
DEGREES. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S WITH FEW CLOUDS AND CALM WINDS. -ELLIS

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA SETTING UP RETURN FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL
BE THE MAIN DRIVER AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS VERY ZONAL. ALTHOUGH
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF AGREE THAT IT WILL BE WARMER...THE
QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH? WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA...RISING THICKNESSES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...CANT SEE HOW TEMPERATURES WONT RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE HAVE GONE TO THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WHICH IN THIS CASE IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE LONG RANGE ECMWF NUMBERS
FOR MAX TEMPS THROUGH MONDAY. SPECIFICALLY MID TO UPPER 50S
SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
MONDAY. LOWS WILL ALSO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MORE
MODESTLY...UPPER 30S INCREASING TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FALLING SLIGHTLY BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT DRAPED TO OUR NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE LAST PART OF THE LONG TERM INTRODUCES
A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE HANDLING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT AS THE PARENT LOW IS IS QUICKLY HAULED AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST BY THE NORTHERN STREAM JET...LEAVING A WEAKLY DEFINED
FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH TEH FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING WHEN
A FAIRLY STRONG 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC.
THIS LOCATION IS FURTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND IS
NOT QUITE AS IDEAL FOR A CLASSICAL/HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT AS
IT WAS YESTERDAY. STILL THINK SOME FORM OF A WEAK CAD IS POSSIBLE
AND THUS KEEPING HIGHS ON TUESDAY FAIRLY LOW AS WE SHOULD BE
OVERCAST WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S
BUT STILL COULD BE LOWER IN THE TRIAD IF WEDGE DEVELOPS. THIS HIGH
WILL NOT REMAIN IN PLACE FOR VERY LONG AS IT IS QUICKLY MOVES OUT TO
SEA BY A DEVELOPING LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL SET UP A SLIGHTLY WARMER
DAY ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS LONG AS THE WEDGE DISSIPATES. MID 50S TO MID 60S NW TO SE. PRECIP
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT BUT WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS DURING THIS
TIME IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1220 PM WEDNESDAY...

EXPECTED AVIATION CONDITIONS: POOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... BECOME
FAIR TO GOOD THIS EVENING... BRIEFLY POOR AT NORTHERN SITES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING... THEN GOOD BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON.
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS: LOW CIGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
LATER TONIGHT.

CURRENT MVFR CIGS AT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS (EXCEPT BRIEFLY IFR
ESPECIALLY AT GSO/RDU) WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. AREAS OF
RAIN CONTINUE BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS DEPARTED... THUS VSBYS ARE
NOW MOSTLY VFR. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 19Z
AND 23Z AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE FAR WRN
PIEDMONT OF NC TRACKS QUICKLY TO THE NE AND MOVES AWAY FROM NC LATER
TODAY. BRIEF MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING... THEN
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION...
TRACKING ROUGHLY ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER... FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THU MORNING. IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT GSO/INT AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT UNTIL LATE MORNING THU... AND MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
RDU/RWI THU MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. BRISK
WINDS MAINLY FROM THE NORTH WILL BE OF CONCERN AT ALL SITES THROUGH
21Z TONIGHT... THEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS UP TO 8-12 KTS POSSIBLE THU MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z THU... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
THROUGH MON... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD/ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 261948
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
248 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL NC COAST
THIS MORNING WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE MIDATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM WEDNESDAY...

REST OF TODAY: FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK... ALTHOUGH WE`LL SEE A
SLIGHTLY EARLIER TAPERING DOWN OF THE PRECIP. LATEST SURFACE MAP
SHOWS THE LOW JUST SE OF NEW BERN... MORE INLAND THAN MODELS WERE
DEPICTING YESTERDAY. THE NARROW RELATIVE DRY SLOT JUST WEST OF THE
SURFACE LOW HAS SOMEWHAT LIMITED RAINFALL SINCE LAST NIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE LION`S SHARE OF THE CONVECTION
HAS HELD ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE OVER COASTAL
NC... WHILE THE MORE STEADY MODERATE BANDED PRECIP JUST W/NW OF THE
850 MB LOW -- SUPPORTED BY STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150-200 KT JET -- HAS LED TO HIGHER RAIN TOTALS
OVER THE PIEDMONT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. MINOR MID LEVEL
DRYING AND A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE BETTER UPPER DIVERGENCE HAS LED
TO A DECREASE IN PRECIP RATES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN HALF OF THE
CWA IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX RIDING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN CENTRAL/ERN CONUS TROUGH IS CLEARLY SEEN
ON RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRACKING NE THROUGH THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. BASED ON THIS FEATURE`S TIMING AND LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE... WE SHOULD SEE RAIN TAPERING OFF IN THE SW CWA BY 11 AM-
NOON... AND ACROSS MOST OF THE WRN AND SRN CWA BEFORE 3 PM. WE MAY
SEE ANOTHER STREAK OF HEAVIER PRECIP AHEAD OF THE VORTICITY MAX AS A
SMALL JET STREAK ANALYZED OVER AL/NRN GA TRACKS SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE
NORTH. OTHERWISE... WILL TAPER DOWN POPS ACCORDING TO THESE TIME
FRAMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL QPF SHOULD BE MOST
SUBSTANTIAL OVER THE PIEDMONT... WITH ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST (SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN). WILL MAINTAIN
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NW THROUGH NNE GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KTS... BUT
AS THE SURFACE LOW DRAWS STEADILY NORTHWARD... WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
UNIFORM NW AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY MID AFTERNOON. MOST PLACES HAVE
ALREADY SEEN THEIR HIGHS TODAY... SO EXPECT TEMPS TO WAVER JUST A
FEW DEGREES... STAYING MAINLY IN THE 40S. -GIH

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 320 AM: TODAY...THE APPROACH OF A
SUBSTANTIAL S/W LIFTING NE OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING
(REFER TO LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) WILL CAUSE A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE ALONG THE NC COAST THIS
MORNING...THEN LIFT TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...A STEADY
STREAM OF MOISTURE OFF BOTH THE GULF AND PACIFIC IS BEING PULLED
NORTHWARD VIA A STRONG JET EXTENDING ALONG OR JUST WEST THE SPINE OF
APPALACHIANS (190-200KTS PER 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS). THE LIFT
PROVIDED ALOFT BY THE APPROACH OF THE S/W AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. OBSERVED RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ABOUT A
TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR THOUGH WHERE POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN HAVE
OCCURRED...RAINFALL RATES AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH HAVE BEEN
RECORDED. BASED ON THE EXPECTED TIMING/EXTENT OF RAIN...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE A SOLID HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WITH
POCKETS OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES LIKELY.

WILL LIKELY SEE TWO AXES OF MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION...ONE OVER THE
PIEDMONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHILE THE OTHER
WILL BE CLOSER TO COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE WAVE. THUS MAY
SEE A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIP INTENSITY IN VICINITY OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR (GOOD NEWS FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS).

SFC WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
HIGHLY PROBABLE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR.

AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTH-NE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SEE
THE RAIN TAPER OFF FROM THE SW...POSSIBLY STARTING IN THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT BY MID-LATE MORNING...PROGRESSING INTO THE TRIAD AND
TRIANGLE AREAS AS WELL AS FAYETTEVILLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY COMPARABLE TO CURRENT TEMPS AS NLY
FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE WILL FILTER COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMP PROFILES ALOFT ACROSS
THE NW PIEDMONT SUGGEST SOME MOISTURE/LIFT INTO THE ICE NUCLEATION
REGION ALTER THIS MORNING. DURING TIMES OF ENHANCED PRECIP
INTENSITY...COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW MIXED IN THE RAIN BUT THIS
OCCURRENCE EXPECTED TO BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

TONIGHT...WHILE ATLANTIC SYSTEM WILL BEING QUICKLY EXITING OUR
REGION...A FAST MOVING S/W (CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY) WILL CROSS
APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT GETS INTO THE
BOTTOM OF THE L/W TROUGH. THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTING WITH
AVAILABLE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY.
NOT SEEING ENOUGH MOISTURE NOR LIFT INTO THE ICE NUCLEATION REGION
TO WARRANT MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME SO JUST EXPECTING A
CHILLY RAIN. WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...DO BELIEVE
PRECIP EXTENT WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POP
OVER TEH FAR NORTH-NW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. MIN TEMPS
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 244 PM WEDNESDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...UPDATED SOON.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE DEEP SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF OF THE COAST. FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY...CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH...IN
WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON THE HIGH WILL MOVE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...CALMING ANY REMAINING WIND. CLOUD COVER LEFT
OVER FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL FILTER OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
THUS EXPECT LOWEST TEMPS IN THE NE AND HIGHEST IN THE SW. COOLEST
DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S WITH FEW
CLOUDS AND CALM WINDS. -ELLIS

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA SETTING UP RETURN FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL
BE THE MAIN DRIVER AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS VERY ZONAL. ALTHOUGH
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF AGREE THAT IT WILL BE WARMER...THE
QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH? WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA...RISING THICKNESSES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...CANT SEE HOW TEMPERATURES WONT RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE HAVE GONE TO THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WHICH IN THIS CASE IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE LONG RANGE ECMWF NUMBERS
FOR MAX TEMPS THROUGH MONDAY. SPECIFICALLY MID TO UPPER 50S
SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
MONDAY. LOWS WILL ALSO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MORE
MODESTLY...UPPER 30S INCREASING TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FALLING SLIGHTLY BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT DRAPED TO OUR NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE LAST PART OF THE LONG TERM INTRODUCES
A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE HANDLING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT AS THE PARENT LOW IS IS QUICKLY HAULED AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST BY THE NORTHERN STREAM JET...LEAVING A WEAKLY DEFINED
FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH TEH FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING WHEN
A FAIRLY STRONG 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC.
THIS LOCATION IS FURTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND IS
NOT QUITE AS IDEAL FOR A CLASSICAL/HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT AS
IT WAS YESTERDAY. STILL THINK SOME FORM OF A WEAK CAD IS POSSIBLE
AND THUS KEEPING HIGHS ON TUESDAY FAIRLY LOW AS WE SHOULD BE
OVERCAST WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S
BUT STILL COULD BE LOWER IN THE TRIAD IF WEDGE DEVELOPS. THIS HIGH
WILL NOT REMAIN IN PLACE FOR VERY LONG AS IT IS QUICKLY MOVES OUT TO
SEA BY A DEVELOPING LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL SET UP A SLIGHTLY WARMER
DAY ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS LONG AS THE WEDGE DISSIPATES. MID 50S TO MID 60S NW TO SE. PRECIP
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT BUT WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS DURING THIS
TIME IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1220 PM WEDNESDAY...

EXPECTED AVIATION CONDITIONS: POOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... BECOME
FAIR TO GOOD THIS EVENING... BRIEFLY POOR AT NORTHERN SITES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING... THEN GOOD BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON.
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS: LOW CIGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
LATER TONIGHT.

CURRENT MVFR CIGS AT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS (EXCEPT BRIEFLY IFR
ESPECIALLY AT GSO/RDU) WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. AREAS OF
RAIN CONTINUE BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS DEPARTED... THUS VSBYS ARE
NOW MOSTLY VFR. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 19Z
AND 23Z AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE FAR WRN
PIEDMONT OF NC TRACKS QUICKLY TO THE NE AND MOVES AWAY FROM NC LATER
TODAY. BRIEF MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING... THEN
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION...
TRACKING ROUGHLY ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER... FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THU MORNING. IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT GSO/INT AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT UNTIL LATE MORNING THU... AND MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
RDU/RWI THU MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. BRISK
WINDS MAINLY FROM THE NORTH WILL BE OF CONCERN AT ALL SITES THROUGH
21Z TONIGHT... THEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS UP TO 8-12 KTS POSSIBLE THU MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z THU... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
THROUGH MON... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD/ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 261948
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
248 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL NC COAST
THIS MORNING WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE MIDATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM WEDNESDAY...

REST OF TODAY: FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK... ALTHOUGH WE`LL SEE A
SLIGHTLY EARLIER TAPERING DOWN OF THE PRECIP. LATEST SURFACE MAP
SHOWS THE LOW JUST SE OF NEW BERN... MORE INLAND THAN MODELS WERE
DEPICTING YESTERDAY. THE NARROW RELATIVE DRY SLOT JUST WEST OF THE
SURFACE LOW HAS SOMEWHAT LIMITED RAINFALL SINCE LAST NIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE LION`S SHARE OF THE CONVECTION
HAS HELD ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE OVER COASTAL
NC... WHILE THE MORE STEADY MODERATE BANDED PRECIP JUST W/NW OF THE
850 MB LOW -- SUPPORTED BY STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150-200 KT JET -- HAS LED TO HIGHER RAIN TOTALS
OVER THE PIEDMONT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. MINOR MID LEVEL
DRYING AND A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE BETTER UPPER DIVERGENCE HAS LED
TO A DECREASE IN PRECIP RATES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN HALF OF THE
CWA IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX RIDING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN CENTRAL/ERN CONUS TROUGH IS CLEARLY SEEN
ON RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRACKING NE THROUGH THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. BASED ON THIS FEATURE`S TIMING AND LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE... WE SHOULD SEE RAIN TAPERING OFF IN THE SW CWA BY 11 AM-
NOON... AND ACROSS MOST OF THE WRN AND SRN CWA BEFORE 3 PM. WE MAY
SEE ANOTHER STREAK OF HEAVIER PRECIP AHEAD OF THE VORTICITY MAX AS A
SMALL JET STREAK ANALYZED OVER AL/NRN GA TRACKS SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE
NORTH. OTHERWISE... WILL TAPER DOWN POPS ACCORDING TO THESE TIME
FRAMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL QPF SHOULD BE MOST
SUBSTANTIAL OVER THE PIEDMONT... WITH ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST (SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN). WILL MAINTAIN
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NW THROUGH NNE GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KTS... BUT
AS THE SURFACE LOW DRAWS STEADILY NORTHWARD... WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
UNIFORM NW AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY MID AFTERNOON. MOST PLACES HAVE
ALREADY SEEN THEIR HIGHS TODAY... SO EXPECT TEMPS TO WAVER JUST A
FEW DEGREES... STAYING MAINLY IN THE 40S. -GIH

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 320 AM: TODAY...THE APPROACH OF A
SUBSTANTIAL S/W LIFTING NE OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING
(REFER TO LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) WILL CAUSE A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE ALONG THE NC COAST THIS
MORNING...THEN LIFT TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...A STEADY
STREAM OF MOISTURE OFF BOTH THE GULF AND PACIFIC IS BEING PULLED
NORTHWARD VIA A STRONG JET EXTENDING ALONG OR JUST WEST THE SPINE OF
APPALACHIANS (190-200KTS PER 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS). THE LIFT
PROVIDED ALOFT BY THE APPROACH OF THE S/W AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. OBSERVED RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ABOUT A
TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR THOUGH WHERE POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN HAVE
OCCURRED...RAINFALL RATES AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH HAVE BEEN
RECORDED. BASED ON THE EXPECTED TIMING/EXTENT OF RAIN...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE A SOLID HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WITH
POCKETS OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES LIKELY.

WILL LIKELY SEE TWO AXES OF MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION...ONE OVER THE
PIEDMONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHILE THE OTHER
WILL BE CLOSER TO COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE WAVE. THUS MAY
SEE A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIP INTENSITY IN VICINITY OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR (GOOD NEWS FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS).

SFC WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
HIGHLY PROBABLE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR.

AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTH-NE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SEE
THE RAIN TAPER OFF FROM THE SW...POSSIBLY STARTING IN THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT BY MID-LATE MORNING...PROGRESSING INTO THE TRIAD AND
TRIANGLE AREAS AS WELL AS FAYETTEVILLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY COMPARABLE TO CURRENT TEMPS AS NLY
FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE WILL FILTER COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMP PROFILES ALOFT ACROSS
THE NW PIEDMONT SUGGEST SOME MOISTURE/LIFT INTO THE ICE NUCLEATION
REGION ALTER THIS MORNING. DURING TIMES OF ENHANCED PRECIP
INTENSITY...COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW MIXED IN THE RAIN BUT THIS
OCCURRENCE EXPECTED TO BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

TONIGHT...WHILE ATLANTIC SYSTEM WILL BEING QUICKLY EXITING OUR
REGION...A FAST MOVING S/W (CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY) WILL CROSS
APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT GETS INTO THE
BOTTOM OF THE L/W TROUGH. THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTING WITH
AVAILABLE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY.
NOT SEEING ENOUGH MOISTURE NOR LIFT INTO THE ICE NUCLEATION REGION
TO WARRANT MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME SO JUST EXPECTING A
CHILLY RAIN. WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...DO BELIEVE
PRECIP EXTENT WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POP
OVER TEH FAR NORTH-NW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. MIN TEMPS
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 244 PM WEDNESDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...UPDATED SOON.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE DEEP SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF OF THE COAST. FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY...CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH...IN
WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON THE HIGH WILL MOVE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...CALMING ANY REMAINING WIND. CLOUD COVER LEFT
OVER FROM THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL FILTER OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
THUS EXPECT LOWEST TEMPS IN THE NE AND HIGHEST IN THE SW. COOLEST
DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S WITH FEW
CLOUDS AND CALM WINDS. -ELLIS

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL
FEATURE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA SETTING UP RETURN FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL
BE THE MAIN DRIVER AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS VERY ZONAL. ALTHOUGH
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF AGREE THAT IT WILL BE WARMER...THE
QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH? WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA...RISING THICKNESSES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...CANT SEE HOW TEMPERATURES WONT RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE HAVE GONE TO THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WHICH IN THIS CASE IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE LONG RANGE ECMWF NUMBERS
FOR MAX TEMPS THROUGH MONDAY. SPECIFICALLY MID TO UPPER 50S
SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
MONDAY. LOWS WILL ALSO WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MORE
MODESTLY...UPPER 30S INCREASING TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FALLING SLIGHTLY BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT DRAPED TO OUR NORTHWEST.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE LAST PART OF THE LONG TERM INTRODUCES
A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE HANDLING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT AS THE PARENT LOW IS IS QUICKLY HAULED AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST BY THE NORTHERN STREAM JET...LEAVING A WEAKLY DEFINED
FRONTAL ZONE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH TEH FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING WHEN
A FAIRLY STRONG 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC.
THIS LOCATION IS FURTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND IS
NOT QUITE AS IDEAL FOR A CLASSICAL/HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT AS
IT WAS YESTERDAY. STILL THINK SOME FORM OF A WEAK CAD IS POSSIBLE
AND THUS KEEPING HIGHS ON TUESDAY FAIRLY LOW AS WE SHOULD BE
OVERCAST WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S
BUT STILL COULD BE LOWER IN THE TRIAD IF WEDGE DEVELOPS. THIS HIGH
WILL NOT REMAIN IN PLACE FOR VERY LONG AS IT IS QUICKLY MOVES OUT TO
SEA BY A DEVELOPING LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL SET UP A SLIGHTLY WARMER
DAY ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS LONG AS THE WEDGE DISSIPATES. MID 50S TO MID 60S NW TO SE. PRECIP
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT BUT WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS DURING THIS
TIME IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1220 PM WEDNESDAY...

EXPECTED AVIATION CONDITIONS: POOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... BECOME
FAIR TO GOOD THIS EVENING... BRIEFLY POOR AT NORTHERN SITES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING... THEN GOOD BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON.
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS: LOW CIGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
LATER TONIGHT.

CURRENT MVFR CIGS AT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS (EXCEPT BRIEFLY IFR
ESPECIALLY AT GSO/RDU) WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. AREAS OF
RAIN CONTINUE BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS DEPARTED... THUS VSBYS ARE
NOW MOSTLY VFR. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 19Z
AND 23Z AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE FAR WRN
PIEDMONT OF NC TRACKS QUICKLY TO THE NE AND MOVES AWAY FROM NC LATER
TODAY. BRIEF MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING... THEN
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION...
TRACKING ROUGHLY ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER... FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THU MORNING. IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT GSO/INT AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT UNTIL LATE MORNING THU... AND MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
RDU/RWI THU MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. BRISK
WINDS MAINLY FROM THE NORTH WILL BE OF CONCERN AT ALL SITES THROUGH
21Z TONIGHT... THEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS UP TO 8-12 KTS POSSIBLE THU MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z THU... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
THROUGH MON... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD/ELLIS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 261722
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1220 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL NC COAST
THIS MORNING WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE MIDATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM WEDNESDAY...

REST OF TODAY: FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK... ALTHOUGH WE`LL SEE A
SLIGHTLY EARLIER TAPERING DOWN OF THE PRECIP. LATEST SURFACE MAP
SHOWS THE LOW JUST SE OF NEW BERN... MORE INLAND THAN MODELS WERE
DEPICTING YESTERDAY. THE NARROW RELATIVE DRY SLOT JUST WEST OF THE
SURFACE LOW HAS SOMEWHAT LIMITED RAINFALL SINCE LAST NIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE LION`S SHARE OF THE CONVECTION
HAS HELD ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE OVER COASTAL
NC... WHILE THE MORE STEADY MODERATE BANDED PRECIP JUST W/NW OF THE
850 MB LOW -- SUPPORTED BY STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150-200 KT JET -- HAS LED TO HIGHER RAIN TOTALS
OVER THE PIEDMONT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. MINOR MID LEVEL
DRYING AND A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE BETTER UPPER DIVERGENCE HAS LED
TO A DECREASE IN PRECIP RATES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN HALF OF THE
CWA IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX RIDING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN CENTRAL/ERN CONUS TROUGH IS CLEARLY SEEN
ON RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRACKING NE THROUGH THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. BASED ON THIS FEATURE`S TIMING AND LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE... WE SHOULD SEE RAIN TAPERING OFF IN THE SW CWA BY 11 AM-
NOON... AND ACROSS MOST OF THE WRN AND SRN CWA BEFORE 3 PM. WE MAY
SEE ANOTHER STREAK OF HEAVIER PRECIP AHEAD OF THE VORTICITY MAX AS A
SMALL JET STREAK ANALYZED OVER AL/NRN GA TRACKS SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE
NORTH. OTHERWISE... WILL TAPER DOWN POPS ACCORDING TO THESE TIME
FRAMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL QPF SHOULD BE MOST
SUBSTANTIAL OVER THE PIEDMONT... WITH ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST (SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN). WILL MAINTAIN
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NW THROUGH NNE GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KTS... BUT
AS THE SURFACE LOW DRAWS STEADILY NORTHWARD... WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
UNIFORM NW AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY MID AFTERNOON. MOST PLACES HAVE
ALREADY SEEN THEIR HIGHS TODAY... SO EXPECT TEMPS TO WAVER JUST A
FEW DEGREES... STAYING MAINLY IN THE 40S. -GIH

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 320 AM: TODAY...THE APPROACH OF A
SUBSTANTIAL S/W LIFTING NE OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING
(REFER TO LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) WILL CAUSE A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE ALONG THE NC COAST THIS
MORNING...THEN LIFT TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...A STEADY
STREAM OF MOISTURE OFF BOTH THE GULF AND PACIFIC IS BEING PULLED
NORTHWARD VIA A STRONG JET EXTENDING ALONG OR JUST WEST THE SPINE OF
APPALACHIANS (190-200KTS PER 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS). THE LIFT
PROVIDED ALOFT BY THE APPROACH OF THE S/W AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. OBSERVED RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ABOUT A
TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR THOUGH WHERE POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN HAVE
OCCURRED...RAINFALL RATES AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH HAVE BEEN
RECORDED. BASED ON THE EXPECTED TIMING/EXTENT OF RAIN...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE A SOLID HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WITH
POCKETS OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES LIKELY.

WILL LIKELY SEE TWO AXES OF MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION...ONE OVER THE
PIEDMONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHILE THE OTHER
WILL BE CLOSER TO COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE WAVE. THUS MAY
SEE A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIP INTENSITY IN VICINITY OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR (GOOD NEWS FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS).

SFC WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
HIGHLY PROBABLE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR.

AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTH-NE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SEE
THE RAIN TAPER OFF FROM THE SW...POSSIBLY STARTING IN THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT BY MID-LATE MORNING...PROGRESSING INTO THE TRIAD AND
TRIANGLE AREAS AS WELL AS FAYETTEVILLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY COMPARABLE TO CURRENT TEMPS AS NLY
FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE WILL FILTER COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMP PROFILES ALOFT ACROSS
THE NW PIEDMONT SUGGEST SOME MOISTURE/LIFT INTO THE ICE NUCLEATION
REGION ALTER THIS MORNING. DURING TIMES OF ENHANCED PRECIP
INTENSITY...COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW MIXED IN THE RAIN BUT THIS
OCCURRENCE EXPECTED TO BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

TONIGHT...WHILE ATLANTIC SYSTEM WILL BEING QUICKLY EXITING OUR
REGION...A FAST MOVING S/W (CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY) WILL CROSS
APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT GETS INTO THE
BOTTOM OF THE L/W TROUGH. THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTING WITH
AVAILABLE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY.
NOT SEEING ENOUGH MOISTURE NOR LIFT INTO THE ICE NUCLEATION REGION
TO WARRANT MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME SO JUST EXPECTING A
CHILLY RAIN. WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...DO BELIEVE
PRECIP EXTENT WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POP
OVER TEH FAR NORTH-NW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. MIN TEMPS
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

THURSDAY...MID LEVEL S/W WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THURSDAY MORNING
WITH DWINDLING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 15Z. WLY FLOW
BEHIND THE S/W WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH PROBABLE. THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND WILL AID TO DISSIPATE
CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND ALSO WARM TEMPS UP A BIT. MAX
TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 NW TO MID 50S SE. -WSS

THE L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL NC LATE WEEK...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
YIELD A RETURN TO QUITE WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER... A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT IN THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT... PROBABLY PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST THOUGH.

LOWS FRIDAY MORNING... DRIVEN BY CAA... ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO PLUMMET TO AROUND 1280 METERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.
SIMILAR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES HAVE YIELDED LOW TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE 20-27 DEGREE RANGE IN THE PAST AT KGSO. THUS... HAVE TRENDED
LOW TEMPS TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE... WHICH IS THE MAV.
AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO
AROUND 1300 METERS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS... WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SOME 40 METERS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR... WILL LOWER HIGH TEMPS SOME... A BIT BELOW STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS. EVEN WITH SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING THE AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME... STILL THINK WE WILL SEE LOWS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 20S AGAIN. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC THIS
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 50S FOR SATURDAY AND 60S FOR SUNDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND NUDGE INTO
OUR AREA. HOWEVER... AS A NORTHERN STEAM TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NEAR THE U.S./CANADIAN (EAST COAST THAT IS) BORDER DURING THIS TIME
FRAME A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD AND POSSIBLY INTO
CENTRAL NC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW ONLY WSW IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE (THANKS TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE S/SE
OF THE AREA) THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE THAT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. COMBINE THAT WITH THE FROT DROPPING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD AND
INTO THE AREA... WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ONLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. HIGH TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. FOR NOW... WILL KEEP MONDAY MILD IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70... WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH. HOWEVER...
SOME OF THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCES SHOWS HIGH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S ON TUESDAY NOW... AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG... AROUND
1040-1045 MB. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1220 PM WEDNESDAY...

EXPECTED AVIATION CONDITIONS: POOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... BECOME
FAIR TO GOOD THIS EVENING... BRIEFLY POOR AT NORTHERN SITES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING... THEN GOOD BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON.
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS: LOW CIGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
LATER TONIGHT.

CURRENT MVFR CIGS AT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS (EXCEPT BRIEFLY IFR
ESPECIALLY AT GSO/RDU) WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. AREAS OF
RAIN CONTINUE BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS DEPARTED... THUS VSBYS ARE
NOW MOSTLY VFR. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 19Z
AND 23Z AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE FAR WRN
PIEDMONT OF NC TRACKS QUICKLY TO THE NE AND MOVES AWAY FROM NC LATER
TODAY. BRIEF MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING... THEN
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION...
TRACKING ROUGHLY ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER... FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THU MORNING. IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT GSO/INT AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT UNTIL LATE MORNING THU... AND MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
RDU/RWI THU MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. BRISK
WINDS MAINLY FROM THE NORTH WILL BE OF CONCERN AT ALL SITES THROUGH
21Z TONIGHT... THEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS UP TO 8-12 KTS POSSIBLE THU MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z THU... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
THROUGH MON... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 261722
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1220 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL NC COAST
THIS MORNING WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE MIDATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM WEDNESDAY...

REST OF TODAY: FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK... ALTHOUGH WE`LL SEE A
SLIGHTLY EARLIER TAPERING DOWN OF THE PRECIP. LATEST SURFACE MAP
SHOWS THE LOW JUST SE OF NEW BERN... MORE INLAND THAN MODELS WERE
DEPICTING YESTERDAY. THE NARROW RELATIVE DRY SLOT JUST WEST OF THE
SURFACE LOW HAS SOMEWHAT LIMITED RAINFALL SINCE LAST NIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE LION`S SHARE OF THE CONVECTION
HAS HELD ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE OVER COASTAL
NC... WHILE THE MORE STEADY MODERATE BANDED PRECIP JUST W/NW OF THE
850 MB LOW -- SUPPORTED BY STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150-200 KT JET -- HAS LED TO HIGHER RAIN TOTALS
OVER THE PIEDMONT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. MINOR MID LEVEL
DRYING AND A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE BETTER UPPER DIVERGENCE HAS LED
TO A DECREASE IN PRECIP RATES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN HALF OF THE
CWA IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX RIDING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN CENTRAL/ERN CONUS TROUGH IS CLEARLY SEEN
ON RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRACKING NE THROUGH THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. BASED ON THIS FEATURE`S TIMING AND LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE... WE SHOULD SEE RAIN TAPERING OFF IN THE SW CWA BY 11 AM-
NOON... AND ACROSS MOST OF THE WRN AND SRN CWA BEFORE 3 PM. WE MAY
SEE ANOTHER STREAK OF HEAVIER PRECIP AHEAD OF THE VORTICITY MAX AS A
SMALL JET STREAK ANALYZED OVER AL/NRN GA TRACKS SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE
NORTH. OTHERWISE... WILL TAPER DOWN POPS ACCORDING TO THESE TIME
FRAMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL QPF SHOULD BE MOST
SUBSTANTIAL OVER THE PIEDMONT... WITH ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST (SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN). WILL MAINTAIN
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NW THROUGH NNE GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KTS... BUT
AS THE SURFACE LOW DRAWS STEADILY NORTHWARD... WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
UNIFORM NW AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY MID AFTERNOON. MOST PLACES HAVE
ALREADY SEEN THEIR HIGHS TODAY... SO EXPECT TEMPS TO WAVER JUST A
FEW DEGREES... STAYING MAINLY IN THE 40S. -GIH

EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 320 AM: TODAY...THE APPROACH OF A
SUBSTANTIAL S/W LIFTING NE OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING
(REFER TO LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) WILL CAUSE A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE ALONG THE NC COAST THIS
MORNING...THEN LIFT TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...A STEADY
STREAM OF MOISTURE OFF BOTH THE GULF AND PACIFIC IS BEING PULLED
NORTHWARD VIA A STRONG JET EXTENDING ALONG OR JUST WEST THE SPINE OF
APPALACHIANS (190-200KTS PER 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS). THE LIFT
PROVIDED ALOFT BY THE APPROACH OF THE S/W AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. OBSERVED RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ABOUT A
TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR THOUGH WHERE POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN HAVE
OCCURRED...RAINFALL RATES AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH HAVE BEEN
RECORDED. BASED ON THE EXPECTED TIMING/EXTENT OF RAIN...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE A SOLID HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WITH
POCKETS OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES LIKELY.

WILL LIKELY SEE TWO AXES OF MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION...ONE OVER THE
PIEDMONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHILE THE OTHER
WILL BE CLOSER TO COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE WAVE. THUS MAY
SEE A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIP INTENSITY IN VICINITY OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR (GOOD NEWS FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS).

SFC WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
HIGHLY PROBABLE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR.

AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTH-NE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SEE
THE RAIN TAPER OFF FROM THE SW...POSSIBLY STARTING IN THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT BY MID-LATE MORNING...PROGRESSING INTO THE TRIAD AND
TRIANGLE AREAS AS WELL AS FAYETTEVILLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY COMPARABLE TO CURRENT TEMPS AS NLY
FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE WILL FILTER COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMP PROFILES ALOFT ACROSS
THE NW PIEDMONT SUGGEST SOME MOISTURE/LIFT INTO THE ICE NUCLEATION
REGION ALTER THIS MORNING. DURING TIMES OF ENHANCED PRECIP
INTENSITY...COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW MIXED IN THE RAIN BUT THIS
OCCURRENCE EXPECTED TO BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

TONIGHT...WHILE ATLANTIC SYSTEM WILL BEING QUICKLY EXITING OUR
REGION...A FAST MOVING S/W (CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY) WILL CROSS
APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT GETS INTO THE
BOTTOM OF THE L/W TROUGH. THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTING WITH
AVAILABLE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY.
NOT SEEING ENOUGH MOISTURE NOR LIFT INTO THE ICE NUCLEATION REGION
TO WARRANT MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME SO JUST EXPECTING A
CHILLY RAIN. WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...DO BELIEVE
PRECIP EXTENT WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POP
OVER TEH FAR NORTH-NW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. MIN TEMPS
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

THURSDAY...MID LEVEL S/W WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THURSDAY MORNING
WITH DWINDLING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 15Z. WLY FLOW
BEHIND THE S/W WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH PROBABLE. THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND WILL AID TO DISSIPATE
CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND ALSO WARM TEMPS UP A BIT. MAX
TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 NW TO MID 50S SE. -WSS

THE L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL NC LATE WEEK...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
YIELD A RETURN TO QUITE WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER... A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT IN THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT... PROBABLY PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST THOUGH.

LOWS FRIDAY MORNING... DRIVEN BY CAA... ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO PLUMMET TO AROUND 1280 METERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.
SIMILAR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES HAVE YIELDED LOW TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE 20-27 DEGREE RANGE IN THE PAST AT KGSO. THUS... HAVE TRENDED
LOW TEMPS TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE... WHICH IS THE MAV.
AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO
AROUND 1300 METERS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS... WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SOME 40 METERS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR... WILL LOWER HIGH TEMPS SOME... A BIT BELOW STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS. EVEN WITH SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING THE AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME... STILL THINK WE WILL SEE LOWS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 20S AGAIN. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC THIS
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 50S FOR SATURDAY AND 60S FOR SUNDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND NUDGE INTO
OUR AREA. HOWEVER... AS A NORTHERN STEAM TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NEAR THE U.S./CANADIAN (EAST COAST THAT IS) BORDER DURING THIS TIME
FRAME A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD AND POSSIBLY INTO
CENTRAL NC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW ONLY WSW IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE (THANKS TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE S/SE
OF THE AREA) THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE THAT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. COMBINE THAT WITH THE FROT DROPPING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD AND
INTO THE AREA... WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ONLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. HIGH TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. FOR NOW... WILL KEEP MONDAY MILD IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70... WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH. HOWEVER...
SOME OF THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCES SHOWS HIGH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S ON TUESDAY NOW... AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG... AROUND
1040-1045 MB. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1220 PM WEDNESDAY...

EXPECTED AVIATION CONDITIONS: POOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... BECOME
FAIR TO GOOD THIS EVENING... BRIEFLY POOR AT NORTHERN SITES LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING... THEN GOOD BY EARLY THU AFTERNOON.
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS: LOW CIGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
LATER TONIGHT.

CURRENT MVFR CIGS AT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS (EXCEPT BRIEFLY IFR
ESPECIALLY AT GSO/RDU) WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS. AREAS OF
RAIN CONTINUE BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS DEPARTED... THUS VSBYS ARE
NOW MOSTLY VFR. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 19Z
AND 23Z AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE FAR WRN
PIEDMONT OF NC TRACKS QUICKLY TO THE NE AND MOVES AWAY FROM NC LATER
TODAY. BRIEF MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING... THEN
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION...
TRACKING ROUGHLY ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER... FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THU MORNING. IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT GSO/INT AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT UNTIL LATE MORNING THU... AND MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
RDU/RWI THU MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. BRISK
WINDS MAINLY FROM THE NORTH WILL BE OF CONCERN AT ALL SITES THROUGH
21Z TONIGHT... THEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. WEST WINDS UP TO 8-12 KTS POSSIBLE THU MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z THU... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
THROUGH MON... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 261144
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING THEN LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AND LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...THE APPROACH OF A SUBSTANTIAL S/W LIFTING NE OUT OF THE DEEP
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING (REFER TO LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) WILL
CAUSE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE ALONG THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING...THEN LIFT TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...A
STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE OFF BOTH THE GULF AND PACIFIC IS BEING
PULLED NORTHWARD VIA A STRONG JET EXTENDING ALONG OR JUST WEST THE
SPINE OF APPALACHIANS (190-200KTS PER 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS). THE
LIFT PROVIDED ALOFT BY THE APPROACH OF THE S/W AND THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. OBSERVED RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN
ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR THOUGH WHERE POCKETS OF MODERATE
RAIN HAVE OCCURRED...RAINFALL RATES AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH HAVE
BEEN RECORDED. BASED ON THE EXPECTED TIMING/EXTENT OF RAIN...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE A SOLID HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WITH
POCKETS OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES LIKELY.

WILL LIKELY SEE TWO AXES OF MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION...ONE OVER THE
PIEDMONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHILE THE OTHER
WILL BE CLOSER TO COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE WAVE. THUS MAY
SEE A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIP INTENSITY IN VICINITY OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR (GOOD NEWS FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS).

SFC WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
HIGHLY PROBABLE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR.

AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTH-NE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SEE
THE RAIN TAPER OFF FROM THE SW...POSSIBLY STARTING IN THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT BY MID-LATE MORNING...PROGRESSING INTO THE TRIAD AND
TRIANGLE AREAS AS WELL AS FAYETTEVILLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY COMPARABLE TO CURRENT TEMPS AS NLY
FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE WILL FILTER COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMP PROFILES ALOFT ACROSS
THE NW PIEDMONT SUGGEST SOME MOISTURE/LIFT INTO THE ICE NUCLEATION
REGION ALTER THIS MORNING. DURING TIMES OF ENHANCED PRECIP
INTENSITY...COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW MIXED IN THE RAIN BUT THIS
OCCURRENCE EXPECTED TO BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

TONIGHT...WHILE ATLANTIC SYSTEM WILL BEING QUICKLY EXITING OUR
REGION...A FAST MOVING S/W (CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY) WILL CROSS
APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT GETS INTO THE
BOTTOM OF THE L/W TROUGH. THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTING WITH
AVAILABLE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY.
NOT SEEING ENOUGH MOISTURE NOR LIFT INTO THE ICE NUCLEATION REGION
TO WARRANT MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME SO JUST EXPECTING A
CHILLY RAIN. WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...DO BELIEVE
PRECIP EXTENT WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POP
OVER TEH FAR NORTH-NW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. MIN TEMPS
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.



&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

THURSDAY...MID LEVEL S/W WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THURSDAY MORNING
WITH DWINDLING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 15Z. WLY FLOW
BEHIND THE S/W WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH PROBABLE. THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND WILL AID TO DISSIPATE
CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND ALSO WARM TEMPS UP A BIT. MAX
TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 NW TO MID 50S SE. -WSS

THE L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL NC LATE WEEK...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
YIELD A RETURN TO QUITE WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER... A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT IN THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT... PROBABLY PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST THOUGH.

LOWS FRIDAY MORNING... DRIVEN BY CAA... ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO PLUMMET TO AROUND 1280 METERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.
SIMILAR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES HAVE YIELDED LOW TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE 20-27 DEGREE RANGE IN THE PAST AT KGSO. THUS... HAVE TRENDED
LOW TEMPS TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE... WHICH IS THE MAV.
AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO
AROUND 1300 METERS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS... WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SOME 40 METERS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR... WILL LOWER HIGH TEMPS SOME... A BIT BELOW STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS. EVEN WITH SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING THE AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME... STILL THINK WE WILL SEE LOWS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 20S AGAIN. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC THIS
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 50S FOR SATURDAY AND 60S FOR SUNDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND NUDGE INTO
OUR AREA. HOWEVER... AS A NORTHERN STEAM TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NEAR THE U.S./CANADIAN (EAST COAST THAT IS) BORDER DURING THIS TIME
FRAME A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD AND POSSIBLY INTO
CENTRAL NC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW ONLY WSW IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE (THANKS TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE S/SE
OF THE AREA) THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE THAT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. COMBINE THAT WITH THE FROT DROPPING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD AND
INTO THE AREA... WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ONLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. HIGH TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. FOR NOW... WILL KEEP MONDAY MILD IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70... WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH. HOWEVER...
SOME OF THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCES SHOWS HIGH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S ON TUESDAY NOW... AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG... AROUND
1040-1045 MB. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THIS MORNING AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE NC
COAST. WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW END MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH POCKETS
OF LIFR CEILINGS. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITY
WITH AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SFC WINDS WILL BE
BLUSTERY  WITH SUSTAINED NLY WINDS 10-18 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH...ESPECIALLY AT KFAY AND KRWI.

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AVIATION
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM THE SW AFTER 18Z. SFC WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND BACK TO A W-NW DIRECTION WHILE CEILINGS
WILL LIFT INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AND THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF.

A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...CAUSING A
PERIOD OF MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...INITIATING A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 261144
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING THEN LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AND LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...THE APPROACH OF A SUBSTANTIAL S/W LIFTING NE OUT OF THE DEEP
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING (REFER TO LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) WILL
CAUSE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE ALONG THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING...THEN LIFT TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...A
STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE OFF BOTH THE GULF AND PACIFIC IS BEING
PULLED NORTHWARD VIA A STRONG JET EXTENDING ALONG OR JUST WEST THE
SPINE OF APPALACHIANS (190-200KTS PER 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS). THE
LIFT PROVIDED ALOFT BY THE APPROACH OF THE S/W AND THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. OBSERVED RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN
ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR THOUGH WHERE POCKETS OF MODERATE
RAIN HAVE OCCURRED...RAINFALL RATES AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH HAVE
BEEN RECORDED. BASED ON THE EXPECTED TIMING/EXTENT OF RAIN...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE A SOLID HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WITH
POCKETS OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES LIKELY.

WILL LIKELY SEE TWO AXES OF MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION...ONE OVER THE
PIEDMONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHILE THE OTHER
WILL BE CLOSER TO COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE WAVE. THUS MAY
SEE A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIP INTENSITY IN VICINITY OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR (GOOD NEWS FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS).

SFC WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
HIGHLY PROBABLE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR.

AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTH-NE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SEE
THE RAIN TAPER OFF FROM THE SW...POSSIBLY STARTING IN THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT BY MID-LATE MORNING...PROGRESSING INTO THE TRIAD AND
TRIANGLE AREAS AS WELL AS FAYETTEVILLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY COMPARABLE TO CURRENT TEMPS AS NLY
FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE WILL FILTER COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMP PROFILES ALOFT ACROSS
THE NW PIEDMONT SUGGEST SOME MOISTURE/LIFT INTO THE ICE NUCLEATION
REGION ALTER THIS MORNING. DURING TIMES OF ENHANCED PRECIP
INTENSITY...COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW MIXED IN THE RAIN BUT THIS
OCCURRENCE EXPECTED TO BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

TONIGHT...WHILE ATLANTIC SYSTEM WILL BEING QUICKLY EXITING OUR
REGION...A FAST MOVING S/W (CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY) WILL CROSS
APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT GETS INTO THE
BOTTOM OF THE L/W TROUGH. THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTING WITH
AVAILABLE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY.
NOT SEEING ENOUGH MOISTURE NOR LIFT INTO THE ICE NUCLEATION REGION
TO WARRANT MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME SO JUST EXPECTING A
CHILLY RAIN. WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...DO BELIEVE
PRECIP EXTENT WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POP
OVER TEH FAR NORTH-NW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. MIN TEMPS
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.



&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

THURSDAY...MID LEVEL S/W WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THURSDAY MORNING
WITH DWINDLING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 15Z. WLY FLOW
BEHIND THE S/W WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH PROBABLE. THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND WILL AID TO DISSIPATE
CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND ALSO WARM TEMPS UP A BIT. MAX
TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 NW TO MID 50S SE. -WSS

THE L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL NC LATE WEEK...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
YIELD A RETURN TO QUITE WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER... A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT IN THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT... PROBABLY PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST THOUGH.

LOWS FRIDAY MORNING... DRIVEN BY CAA... ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO PLUMMET TO AROUND 1280 METERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.
SIMILAR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES HAVE YIELDED LOW TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE 20-27 DEGREE RANGE IN THE PAST AT KGSO. THUS... HAVE TRENDED
LOW TEMPS TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE... WHICH IS THE MAV.
AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO
AROUND 1300 METERS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS... WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SOME 40 METERS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR... WILL LOWER HIGH TEMPS SOME... A BIT BELOW STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS. EVEN WITH SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING THE AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME... STILL THINK WE WILL SEE LOWS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 20S AGAIN. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC THIS
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 50S FOR SATURDAY AND 60S FOR SUNDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND NUDGE INTO
OUR AREA. HOWEVER... AS A NORTHERN STEAM TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NEAR THE U.S./CANADIAN (EAST COAST THAT IS) BORDER DURING THIS TIME
FRAME A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD AND POSSIBLY INTO
CENTRAL NC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW ONLY WSW IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE (THANKS TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE S/SE
OF THE AREA) THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE THAT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. COMBINE THAT WITH THE FROT DROPPING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD AND
INTO THE AREA... WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ONLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. HIGH TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. FOR NOW... WILL KEEP MONDAY MILD IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70... WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH. HOWEVER...
SOME OF THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCES SHOWS HIGH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S ON TUESDAY NOW... AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG... AROUND
1040-1045 MB. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THIS MORNING AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE NC
COAST. WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW END MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH POCKETS
OF LIFR CEILINGS. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITY
WITH AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SFC WINDS WILL BE
BLUSTERY  WITH SUSTAINED NLY WINDS 10-18 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH...ESPECIALLY AT KFAY AND KRWI.

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AVIATION
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM THE SW AFTER 18Z. SFC WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND BACK TO A W-NW DIRECTION WHILE CEILINGS
WILL LIFT INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AND THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF.

A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...CAUSING A
PERIOD OF MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...INITIATING A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 260821
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING THEN LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AND LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...THE APPROACH OF A SUBSTANTIAL S/W LIFTING NE OUT OF THE DEEP
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING (REFER TO LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) WILL
CAUSE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE ALONG THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING...THEN LIFT TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...A
STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE OFF BOTH THE GULF AND PACIFIC IS BEING
PULLED NORTHWARD VIA A STRONG JET EXTENDING ALONG OR JUST WEST THE
SPINE OF APPALACHIANS (190-200KTS PER 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS). THE
LIFT PROVIDED ALOFT BY THE APPROACH OF THE S/W AND THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. OBSERVED RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN
ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR THOUGH WHERE POCKETS OF MODERATE
RAIN HAVE OCCURRED...RAINFALL RATES AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH HAVE
BEEN RECORDED. BASED ON THE EXPECTED TIMING/EXTENT OF RAIN...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE A SOLID HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WITH
POCKETS OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES LIKELY.

WILL LIKELY SEE TWO AXES OF MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION...ONE OVER THE
PIEDMONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHILE THE OTHER
WILL BE CLOSER TO COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE WAVE. THUS MAY
SEE A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIP INTENSITY IN VICINITY OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR (GOOD NEWS FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS).

SFC WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
HIGHLY PROBABLE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR.

AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTH-NE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SEE
THE RAIN TAPER OFF FROM THE SW...POSSIBLY STARTING IN THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT BY MID-LATE MORNING...PROGRESSING INTO THE TRIAD AND
TRIANGLE AREAS AS WELL AS FAYETTEVILLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY COMPARABLE TO CURRENT TEMPS AS NLY
FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE WILL FILTER COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMP PROFILES ALOFT ACROSS
THE NW PIEDMONT SUGGEST SOME MOISTURE/LIFT INTO THE ICE NUCLEATION
REGION ALTER THIS MORNING. DURING TIMES OF ENHANCED PRECIP
INTENSITY...COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW MIXED IN THE RAIN BUT THIS
OCCURRENCE EXPECTED TO BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

TONIGHT...WHILE ATLANTIC SYSTEM WILL BEING QUICKLY EXITING OUR
REGION...A FAST MOVING S/W (CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY) WILL CROSS
APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT GETS INTO THE
BOTTOM OF THE L/W TROUGH. THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTING WITH
AVAILABLE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY.
NOT SEEING ENOUGH MOISTURE NOR LIFT INTO THE ICE NUCLEATION REGION
TO WARRANT MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME SO JUST EXPECTING A
CHILLY RAIN. WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...DO BELIEVE
PRECIP EXTENT WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POP
OVER TEH FAR NORTH-NW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. MIN TEMPS
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.



&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

THURSDAY...MID LEVEL S/W WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THURSDAY MORNING
WITH DWINDLING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 15Z. WLY FLOW
BEHIND THE S/W WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH PROBABLE. THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND WILL AID TO DISSIPATE
CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND ALSO WARM TEMPS UP A BIT. MAX
TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 NW TO MID 50S SE. -WSS

THE L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL NC LATE WEEK...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
YIELD A RETURN TO QUITE WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER... A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT IN THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT... PROBABLY PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST THOUGH.

LOWS FRIDAY MORNING... DRIVEN BY CAA... ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO PLUMMET TO AROUND 1280 METERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.
SIMILAR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES HAVE YIELDED LOW TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE 20-27 DEGREE RANGE IN THE PAST AT KGSO. THUS... HAVE TRENDED
LOW TEMPS TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE... WHICH IS THE MAV.
AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO
AROUND 1300 METERS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS... WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SOME 40 METERS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR... WILL LOWER HIGH TEMPS SOME... A BIT BELOW STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS. EVEN WITH SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING THE AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME... STILL THINK WE WILL SEE LOWS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 20S AGAIN. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC THIS
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 50S FOR SATURDAY AND 60S FOR SUNDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND NUDGE INTO
OUR AREA. HOWEVER... AS A NORTHERN STEAM TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NEAR THE U.S./CANADIAN (EAST COAST THAT IS) BORDER DURING THIS TIME
FRAME A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD AND POSSIBLY INTO
CENTRAL NC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW ONLY WSW IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE (THANKS TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE S/SE
OF THE AREA) THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE THAT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. COMBINE THAT WITH THE FROT DROPPING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD AND
INTO THE AREA... WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ONLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. HIGH TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. FOR NOW... WILL KEEP MONDAY MILD IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70... WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH. HOWEVER...
SOME OF THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCES SHOWS HIGH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S ON TUESDAY NOW... AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG... AROUND
1040-1045 MB. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1258 AM WEDNESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE NC COAST. WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW END MVFR
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH POCKETS OF LIFR CEILINGS. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WILL RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITY WITH AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME BLUSTERY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
WITH SUSTAINED NLY WINDS 10-18 MPH WITH GUST 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY
AT KFAY AND KRWI.

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AVIATION
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM THE SW AFTER 18Z. SFC WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND BACK TO A W-NW DIRECTION WHILE CEILINGS
WILL LIFT INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AND THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF.

A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...CAUSING A
PERIOD OF MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...INITIATING A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 260821
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING THEN LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AND LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

TODAY...THE APPROACH OF A SUBSTANTIAL S/W LIFTING NE OUT OF THE DEEP
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING (REFER TO LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) WILL
CAUSE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE ALONG THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING...THEN LIFT TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...A
STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE OFF BOTH THE GULF AND PACIFIC IS BEING
PULLED NORTHWARD VIA A STRONG JET EXTENDING ALONG OR JUST WEST THE
SPINE OF APPALACHIANS (190-200KTS PER 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS). THE
LIFT PROVIDED ALOFT BY THE APPROACH OF THE S/W AND THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET...COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. OBSERVED RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN
ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR THOUGH WHERE POCKETS OF MODERATE
RAIN HAVE OCCURRED...RAINFALL RATES AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH HAVE
BEEN RECORDED. BASED ON THE EXPECTED TIMING/EXTENT OF RAIN...MOST
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE A SOLID HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN WITH
POCKETS OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES LIKELY.

WILL LIKELY SEE TWO AXES OF MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION...ONE OVER THE
PIEDMONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHILE THE OTHER
WILL BE CLOSER TO COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE WAVE. THUS MAY
SEE A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIP INTENSITY IN VICINITY OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR (GOOD NEWS FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS).

SFC WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
HIGHLY PROBABLE OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR.

AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS TO THE NORTH-NE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SEE
THE RAIN TAPER OFF FROM THE SW...POSSIBLY STARTING IN THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT BY MID-LATE MORNING...PROGRESSING INTO THE TRIAD AND
TRIANGLE AREAS AS WELL AS FAYETTEVILLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY COMPARABLE TO CURRENT TEMPS AS NLY
FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE WILL FILTER COOLER AIR INTO OUR REGION
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMP PROFILES ALOFT ACROSS
THE NW PIEDMONT SUGGEST SOME MOISTURE/LIFT INTO THE ICE NUCLEATION
REGION ALTER THIS MORNING. DURING TIMES OF ENHANCED PRECIP
INTENSITY...COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW MIXED IN THE RAIN BUT THIS
OCCURRENCE EXPECTED TO BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.

TONIGHT...WHILE ATLANTIC SYSTEM WILL BEING QUICKLY EXITING OUR
REGION...A FAST MOVING S/W (CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY) WILL CROSS
APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT GETS INTO THE
BOTTOM OF THE L/W TROUGH. THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTING WITH
AVAILABLE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY.
NOT SEEING ENOUGH MOISTURE NOR LIFT INTO THE ICE NUCLEATION REGION
TO WARRANT MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME SO JUST EXPECTING A
CHILLY RAIN. WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...DO BELIEVE
PRECIP EXTENT WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POP
OVER TEH FAR NORTH-NW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. MIN TEMPS
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.



&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

THURSDAY...MID LEVEL S/W WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE THURSDAY MORNING
WITH DWINDLING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 15Z. WLY FLOW
BEHIND THE S/W WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH PROBABLE. THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND WILL AID TO DISSIPATE
CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND ALSO WARM TEMPS UP A BIT. MAX
TEMPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 NW TO MID 50S SE. -WSS

THE L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL NC LATE WEEK...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
YIELD A RETURN TO QUITE WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER... A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT IN THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT... PROBABLY PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST THOUGH.

LOWS FRIDAY MORNING... DRIVEN BY CAA... ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO PLUMMET TO AROUND 1280 METERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.
SIMILAR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES HAVE YIELDED LOW TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE 20-27 DEGREE RANGE IN THE PAST AT KGSO. THUS... HAVE TRENDED
LOW TEMPS TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE... WHICH IS THE MAV.
AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO
AROUND 1300 METERS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS... WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SOME 40 METERS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR... WILL LOWER HIGH TEMPS SOME... A BIT BELOW STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS. EVEN WITH SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING THE AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME... STILL THINK WE WILL SEE LOWS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 20S AGAIN. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC THIS
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 50S FOR SATURDAY AND 60S FOR SUNDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND NUDGE INTO
OUR AREA. HOWEVER... AS A NORTHERN STEAM TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NEAR THE U.S./CANADIAN (EAST COAST THAT IS) BORDER DURING THIS TIME
FRAME A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD AND POSSIBLY INTO
CENTRAL NC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW ONLY WSW IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE (THANKS TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE S/SE
OF THE AREA) THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE THAT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. COMBINE THAT WITH THE FROT DROPPING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD AND
INTO THE AREA... WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ONLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. HIGH TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. FOR NOW... WILL KEEP MONDAY MILD IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70... WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH. HOWEVER...
SOME OF THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCES SHOWS HIGH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S ON TUESDAY NOW... AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG... AROUND
1040-1045 MB. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1258 AM WEDNESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE NC COAST. WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW END MVFR
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH POCKETS OF LIFR CEILINGS. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WILL RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITY WITH AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME BLUSTERY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
WITH SUSTAINED NLY WINDS 10-18 MPH WITH GUST 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY
AT KFAY AND KRWI.

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AVIATION
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM THE SW AFTER 18Z. SFC WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND BACK TO A W-NW DIRECTION WHILE CEILINGS
WILL LIFT INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AND THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF.

A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...CAUSING A
PERIOD OF MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...INITIATING A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 260807
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
306 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING THEN LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AND LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 846 PM TUESDAY...

RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD NC THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
BACKING LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH OF SEVERAL
WAVES IN THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING NW OF TAMPA FLORIDA... IN THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND TRACK NE ALONG THE
MAIN COASTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT... REACHING OFF THE NC COAST
WEDNESDAY. WAA PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION
AS THE ATLANTIC GETS TAPPED IN ADDITION TO THE GULF OF MEXICO
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF A COLD HIGH TO SUPPLY INITIAL OR
INCOMING COLD AIR - ONLY THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD
GET ANY APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT OUR REGION... EVEN IN OUR FAR NW
PIEDMONT TRIAD AS THE THERMAL PROFILE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE END OF THE EVENT
NOONISH WEDNESDAY (AIDED BY THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER FORECAST EVEN
WITH ADEQUATE COOLING ALOFT NEAR THE END OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION).

NOTE THIS EVENING THAT IS WAS STILL IN THE 50S IN WASHINGTON DC AS
OF 800 PM... AND THE DEW POINTS WERE CLOSE TO 40. THIS CLEARLY SHOWS
THE LACK OF COLD DRY AIR FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AND BRINGS
CONFIDENCE TO A HIGH LEVEL FOR THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE RAIN FOR
OUR REGION. ONE OF THE STRONGEST SIGNALS FOR ALL RAIN WAS THE
SURFACE WET BULBS FORECASTS THROUGH THE END OF THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION EVENT IN OUR NW ZONES ON WEDNESDAY ONLY DIP TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW 40... SUGGESTING LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF A MIX OR
CHANGE TO WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE... EVEN WITH
RAPIDLY COOLING ALOFT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL RAIN FOR THIS EVENT.

SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 1 INCH OR MORE QPF WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. RUNOFF PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE
RECENT 30-60 DAY DRY PERIOD.

FOR WEDNESDAY: AS THE ABOVE-NOTED FORCING FEATURES CONTINUE TO
PROMPT DEEP AND RAPID ASCENT WHILE DEEP MOISTURE (PW FROM 1" WEST TO
1.5" EAST) REMAINS IN PLACE... WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WED MORNING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING
IS LIKELY TO RANGE FROM THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
QUARTER... WITH A FEW HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES (WHERE MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONGEST) AND IN
THE FAR WEST BENEATH ANY BANDED PRECIP. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP
ENDING FROM SSW TO NNE FROM LATE WED MORNING THROUGH EARLY WED
AFTERNOON... LIKELY EXITING THE NE CWA PRIOR TO 3 PM AS THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM SWINGS NE OVER CENTRAL NC. THE CHANCE OF A MIX
WITH WET SNOW WED MORNING AS THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSES OVERHEAD
(POTENTIALLY CAUSING FOCUSED STRONGER LIFT THAT COULD FURTHER COOL
THE LOW LEVELS) REMAINS PLAUSIBLE... BUT IS UNLIKELY TO BE
WIDESPREAD OR GENERATE ANY IMPACT. THE GFS IS TOO WARM (ABOVE-
FREEZING SURFACE-BASED LAYER DEPTH NEAR 2K FT) AND HAS BEEN TRENDING
WARMER... AND WHILE THE NAM IS COOLER (WARM LAYER DEPTH LESS THAN
1000 FT)... THE SREF PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE VERY LOW CHANCES OF
ANYTHING BUT RAIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH A PURELY LIQUID FORECAST AT
THIS TIME... BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN BOTH MODEL DATA AND
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS. WE SHOULD HAVE A SHORT WINDOW OF PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SW WED... AND THIS WILL MAKE HIGH
TEMPS A CHALLENGE... AS ANY INSOLATION WILL CAUSE INITIALLY CHILLY
READINGS TO WARM UP QUICKLY. WILL STICK WITH HIGHS OF 45-51... WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE... HOWEVER THESE COULD BE TOO
COOL IF WE GET APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE.

FOR WED NIGHT: FOCUS THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE CLIPPER WAVE AND LOW
NOW OVER WRN ND... POISED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THEN TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NC/VA LATE WED NIGHT. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP SPREADING
EASTWARD OVER NRN NC... MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64... FORCED
BY STRONG DPVA WITH THE STRENGTHENING VORTICITY MAX... A SHOT OF
MODEST UPPER DIVERGENCE... AND STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ON THE
ORDER OF 7.0 C/KM. WILL RETAIN GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH
(ESPECIALLY NEAR THE VA BORDER) STARTING MID-LATE EVENING...
SPREADING POPS EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OVERNIGHT... WITH
LITTLE TO NO POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT... GIVEN
THAT FORCING WILL BE ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH WITH MODEST PRECIP WATER...
PLUS SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ARE RATHER SMALL AND
CONFINED JUST TO THE NW AND FAR NORTH. THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS
ALSO SUGGEST JUST A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN... ALTHOUGH IF WE DO ACHIEVE
SOME INSTABILITY AND FOCUSED ASCENT... WE COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX WITH
WET SNOW NEAR THE VA STATE LINE. AGAIN... THE VERY LOW PROBABILITY
PRECLUDES MENTIONING IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME... BUT WILL
MONITOR TRENDS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S... CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS. -GIH


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL NC LATE WEEK...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
YIELD A RETURN TO QUITE WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER... A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT IN THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT... PROBABLY PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST THOUGH.

LOWS FRIDAY MORNING... DRIVEN BY CAA... ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO PLUMMET TO AROUND 1280 METERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.
SIMILAR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES HAVE YIELDED LOW TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE 20-27 DEGREE RANGE IN THE PAST AT KGSO. THUS... HAVE TRENDED
LOW TEMPS TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE... WHICH IS THE MAV.
AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO
AROUND 1300 METERS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS... WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SOME 40 METERS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR... WILL LOWER HIGH TEMPS SOME... A BIT BELOW STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS. EVEN WITH SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING THE AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME... STILL THINK WE WILL SEE LOWS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 20S AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC THIS
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 50S FOR SATURDAY AND 60S FOR SUNDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND NUDGE INTO
OUR AREA. HOWEVER... AS A NORTHERN STEAM TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NEAR THE U.S./CANADIAN (EAST COAST THAT IS) BORDER DURING THIS TIME
FRAME A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD AND POSSIBLY INTO
CENTRAL NC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW ONLY WSW IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE (THANKS TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE S/SE
OF THE AREA) THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE THAT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. COMBINE THAT WITH THE FROT DROPPING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD AND
INTO THE AREA... WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ONLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. HIGH TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. FOR NOW... WILL KEEP MONDAY MILD IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70... WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH. HOWEVER...
SOME OF THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCES SHOWS HIGH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S ON TUESDAY NOW... AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG... AROUND
1040-1045 MB. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1258 AM WEDNESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE NC COAST. WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW END MVFR
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH POCKETS OF LIFR CEILINGS. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WILL RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITY WITH AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME BLUSTERY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
WITH SUSTAINED NLY WINDS 10-18 MPH WITH GUST 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY
AT KFAY AND KRWI.

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AVIATION
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM THE SW AFTER 18Z. SFC WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND BACK TO A W-NW DIRECTION WHILE CEILINGS
WILL LIFT INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AND THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF.

A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...CAUSING A
PERIOD OF MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...INITIATING A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...PWBADGETT/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 260807
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
306 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING THEN LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AND LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 846 PM TUESDAY...

RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD NC THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
BACKING LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH OF SEVERAL
WAVES IN THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING NW OF TAMPA FLORIDA... IN THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND TRACK NE ALONG THE
MAIN COASTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT... REACHING OFF THE NC COAST
WEDNESDAY. WAA PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION
AS THE ATLANTIC GETS TAPPED IN ADDITION TO THE GULF OF MEXICO
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF A COLD HIGH TO SUPPLY INITIAL OR
INCOMING COLD AIR - ONLY THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD
GET ANY APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT OUR REGION... EVEN IN OUR FAR NW
PIEDMONT TRIAD AS THE THERMAL PROFILE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE END OF THE EVENT
NOONISH WEDNESDAY (AIDED BY THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER FORECAST EVEN
WITH ADEQUATE COOLING ALOFT NEAR THE END OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION).

NOTE THIS EVENING THAT IS WAS STILL IN THE 50S IN WASHINGTON DC AS
OF 800 PM... AND THE DEW POINTS WERE CLOSE TO 40. THIS CLEARLY SHOWS
THE LACK OF COLD DRY AIR FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AND BRINGS
CONFIDENCE TO A HIGH LEVEL FOR THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE RAIN FOR
OUR REGION. ONE OF THE STRONGEST SIGNALS FOR ALL RAIN WAS THE
SURFACE WET BULBS FORECASTS THROUGH THE END OF THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION EVENT IN OUR NW ZONES ON WEDNESDAY ONLY DIP TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW 40... SUGGESTING LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF A MIX OR
CHANGE TO WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE... EVEN WITH
RAPIDLY COOLING ALOFT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL RAIN FOR THIS EVENT.

SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 1 INCH OR MORE QPF WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. RUNOFF PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE
RECENT 30-60 DAY DRY PERIOD.

FOR WEDNESDAY: AS THE ABOVE-NOTED FORCING FEATURES CONTINUE TO
PROMPT DEEP AND RAPID ASCENT WHILE DEEP MOISTURE (PW FROM 1" WEST TO
1.5" EAST) REMAINS IN PLACE... WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WED MORNING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING
IS LIKELY TO RANGE FROM THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
QUARTER... WITH A FEW HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES (WHERE MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONGEST) AND IN
THE FAR WEST BENEATH ANY BANDED PRECIP. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP
ENDING FROM SSW TO NNE FROM LATE WED MORNING THROUGH EARLY WED
AFTERNOON... LIKELY EXITING THE NE CWA PRIOR TO 3 PM AS THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM SWINGS NE OVER CENTRAL NC. THE CHANCE OF A MIX
WITH WET SNOW WED MORNING AS THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSES OVERHEAD
(POTENTIALLY CAUSING FOCUSED STRONGER LIFT THAT COULD FURTHER COOL
THE LOW LEVELS) REMAINS PLAUSIBLE... BUT IS UNLIKELY TO BE
WIDESPREAD OR GENERATE ANY IMPACT. THE GFS IS TOO WARM (ABOVE-
FREEZING SURFACE-BASED LAYER DEPTH NEAR 2K FT) AND HAS BEEN TRENDING
WARMER... AND WHILE THE NAM IS COOLER (WARM LAYER DEPTH LESS THAN
1000 FT)... THE SREF PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE VERY LOW CHANCES OF
ANYTHING BUT RAIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH A PURELY LIQUID FORECAST AT
THIS TIME... BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN BOTH MODEL DATA AND
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS. WE SHOULD HAVE A SHORT WINDOW OF PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SW WED... AND THIS WILL MAKE HIGH
TEMPS A CHALLENGE... AS ANY INSOLATION WILL CAUSE INITIALLY CHILLY
READINGS TO WARM UP QUICKLY. WILL STICK WITH HIGHS OF 45-51... WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE... HOWEVER THESE COULD BE TOO
COOL IF WE GET APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE.

FOR WED NIGHT: FOCUS THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE CLIPPER WAVE AND LOW
NOW OVER WRN ND... POISED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THEN TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NC/VA LATE WED NIGHT. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP SPREADING
EASTWARD OVER NRN NC... MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64... FORCED
BY STRONG DPVA WITH THE STRENGTHENING VORTICITY MAX... A SHOT OF
MODEST UPPER DIVERGENCE... AND STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ON THE
ORDER OF 7.0 C/KM. WILL RETAIN GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH
(ESPECIALLY NEAR THE VA BORDER) STARTING MID-LATE EVENING...
SPREADING POPS EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OVERNIGHT... WITH
LITTLE TO NO POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT... GIVEN
THAT FORCING WILL BE ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH WITH MODEST PRECIP WATER...
PLUS SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ARE RATHER SMALL AND
CONFINED JUST TO THE NW AND FAR NORTH. THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS
ALSO SUGGEST JUST A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN... ALTHOUGH IF WE DO ACHIEVE
SOME INSTABILITY AND FOCUSED ASCENT... WE COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX WITH
WET SNOW NEAR THE VA STATE LINE. AGAIN... THE VERY LOW PROBABILITY
PRECLUDES MENTIONING IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME... BUT WILL
MONITOR TRENDS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S... CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS. -GIH


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE L/W TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL NC LATE WEEK...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
YIELD A RETURN TO QUITE WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER... A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT IN THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT... PROBABLY PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST THOUGH.

LOWS FRIDAY MORNING... DRIVEN BY CAA... ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO PLUMMET TO AROUND 1280 METERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.
SIMILAR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES HAVE YIELDED LOW TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE 20-27 DEGREE RANGE IN THE PAST AT KGSO. THUS... HAVE TRENDED
LOW TEMPS TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE... WHICH IS THE MAV.
AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO
AROUND 1300 METERS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS... WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SOME 40 METERS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR... WILL LOWER HIGH TEMPS SOME... A BIT BELOW STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM WINDS. EVEN WITH SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING THE AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME... STILL THINK WE WILL SEE LOWS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 20S AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC THIS
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 50S FOR SATURDAY AND 60S FOR SUNDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND NUDGE INTO
OUR AREA. HOWEVER... AS A NORTHERN STEAM TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NEAR THE U.S./CANADIAN (EAST COAST THAT IS) BORDER DURING THIS TIME
FRAME A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD AND POSSIBLY INTO
CENTRAL NC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW ONLY WSW IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE (THANKS TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE S/SE
OF THE AREA) THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE THAT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. COMBINE THAT WITH THE FROT DROPPING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD AND
INTO THE AREA... WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ONLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. HIGH TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. FOR NOW... WILL KEEP MONDAY MILD IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70... WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH. HOWEVER...
SOME OF THE RAW MODEL GUIDANCES SHOWS HIGH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S ON TUESDAY NOW... AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG... AROUND
1040-1045 MB. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1258 AM WEDNESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE NC COAST. WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW END MVFR
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH POCKETS OF LIFR CEILINGS. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WILL RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITY WITH AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME BLUSTERY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
WITH SUSTAINED NLY WINDS 10-18 MPH WITH GUST 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY
AT KFAY AND KRWI.

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AVIATION
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM THE SW AFTER 18Z. SFC WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND BACK TO A W-NW DIRECTION WHILE CEILINGS
WILL LIFT INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AND THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF.

A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...CAUSING A
PERIOD OF MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...INITIATING A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...PWBADGETT/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 260558
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1258 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING THEN LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AND LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 846 PM TUESDAY...

RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD NC THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
BACKING LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH OF SEVERAL
WAVES IN THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING NW OF TAMPA FLORIDA... IN THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND TRACK NE ALONG THE
MAIN COASTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT... REACHING OFF THE NC COAST
WEDNESDAY. WAA PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION
AS THE ATLANTIC GETS TAPPED IN ADDITION TO THE GULF OF MEXICO
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF A COLD HIGH TO SUPPLY INITIAL OR
INCOMING COLD AIR - ONLY THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD
GET ANY APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT OUR REGION... EVEN IN OUR FAR NW
PIEDMONT TRIAD AS THE THERMAL PROFILE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE END OF THE EVENT
NOONISH WEDNESDAY (AIDED BY THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER FORECAST EVEN
WITH ADEQUATE COOLING ALOFT NEAR THE END OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION).

NOTE THIS EVENING THAT IS WAS STILL IN THE 50S IN WASHINGTON DC AS
OF 800 PM... AND THE DEW POINTS WERE CLOSE TO 40. THIS CLEARLY SHOWS
THE LACK OF COLD DRY AIR FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AND BRINGS
CONFIDENCE TO A HIGH LEVEL FOR THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE RAIN FOR
OUR REGION. ONE OF THE STRONGEST SIGNALS FOR ALL RAIN WAS THE
SURFACE WET BULBS FORECASTS THROUGH THE END OF THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION EVENT IN OUR NW ZONES ON WEDNESDAY ONLY DIP TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW 40... SUGGESTING LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF A MIX OR
CHANGE TO WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE... EVEN WITH
RAPIDLY COOLING ALOFT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL RAIN FOR THIS EVENT.

SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 1 INCH OR MORE QPF WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. RUNOFF PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE
RECENT 30-60 DAY DRY PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...

FOR WEDNESDAY: AS THE ABOVE-NOTED FORCING FEATURES CONTINUE TO
PROMPT DEEP AND RAPID ASCENT WHILE DEEP MOISTURE (PW FROM 1" WEST TO
1.5" EAST) REMAINS IN PLACE... WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WED MORNING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING
IS LIKELY TO RANGE FROM THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
QUARTER... WITH A FEW HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES (WHERE MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONGEST) AND IN
THE FAR WEST BENEATH ANY BANDED PRECIP. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP
ENDING FROM SSW TO NNE FROM LATE WED MORNING THROUGH EARLY WED
AFTERNOON... LIKELY EXITING THE NE CWA PRIOR TO 3 PM AS THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM SWINGS NE OVER CENTRAL NC. THE CHANCE OF A MIX
WITH WET SNOW WED MORNING AS THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSES OVERHEAD
(POTENTIALLY CAUSING FOCUSED STRONGER LIFT THAT COULD FURTHER COOL
THE LOW LEVELS) REMAINS PLAUSIBLE... BUT IS UNLIKELY TO BE
WIDESPREAD OR GENERATE ANY IMPACT. THE GFS IS TOO WARM (ABOVE-
FREEZING SURFACE-BASED LAYER DEPTH NEAR 2K FT) AND HAS BEEN TRENDING
WARMER... AND WHILE THE NAM IS COOLER (WARM LAYER DEPTH LESS THAN
1000 FT)... THE SREF PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE VERY LOW CHANCES OF
ANYTHING BUT RAIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH A PURELY LIQUID FORECAST AT
THIS TIME... BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN BOTH MODEL DATA AND
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS. WE SHOULD HAVE A SHORT WINDOW OF PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SW WED... AND THIS WILL MAKE HIGH
TEMPS A CHALLENGE... AS ANY INSOLATION WILL CAUSE INITIALLY CHILLY
READINGS TO WARM UP QUICKLY. WILL STICK WITH HIGHS OF 45-51... WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE... HOWEVER THESE COULD BE TOO
COOL IF WE GET APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE.

FOR WED NIGHT: FOCUS THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE CLIPPER WAVE AND LOW
NOW OVER WRN ND... POISED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THEN TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NC/VA LATE WED NIGHT. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP SPREADING
EASTWARD OVER NRN NC... MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64... FORCED
BY STRONG DPVA WITH THE STRENGTHENING VORTICITY MAX... A SHOT OF
MODEST UPPER DIVERGENCE... AND STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ON THE
ORDER OF 7.0 C/KM. WILL RETAIN GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH
(ESPECIALLY NEAR THE VA BORDER) STARTING MID-LATE EVENING...
SPREADING POPS EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OVERNIGHT... WITH
LITTLE TO NO POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT... GIVEN
THAT FORCING WILL BE ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH WITH MODEST PRECIP WATER...
PLUS SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ARE RATHER SMALL AND
CONFINED JUST TO THE NW AND FAR NORTH. THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS
ALSO SUGGEST JUST A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN... ALTHOUGH IF WE DO ACHIEVE
SOME INSTABILITY AND FOCUSED ASCENT... WE COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX WITH
WET SNOW NEAR THE VA STATE LINE. AGAIN... THE VERY LOW PROBABILITY
PRECLUDES MENTIONING IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME... BUT WILL
MONITOR TRENDS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S... CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: A FAIRLY STRONG VORT MAX WILL ACCOMPANY
THE PASSAGE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
TOTALS ARE FAIRLY LOW THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A SNOWFLAKE OR TWO THROUGH MID
MORNING...BUT THEN THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST ANYTHING THAT FALLS
THEREAFTER WILL BE ALL LIQUID. PRECIPITATION OF ANY KIND SHOULD BE
ENDING BY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
NORTH TO SOUTH. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS
CLEARING SKIES WHICH WILL HELP LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30
DEGREES.

FRIDAY THOUGH MONDAY NIGHT: THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
ON FRIDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FLATTEN
OUT. AS THIS HAPPENS...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND
AND THEN CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OUT TO SEA BY SUNDAY
BEFORE STALLING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE SOME COOL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH A WITH A WARMING TREND EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MODERATING TO THE LOW 50S FOR SATURDAY BEFORE
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S SUNDAY AND UPPER 60S ON MONDAY. LOWS WILL
START OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY MORNING AND CLIMB TO THE
LOW TO MID 40S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL GO FROM NORTHWESTERLY
ON FRIDAY TO SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

TUESDAY: A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. WHILE MODEL QPF VALUES WITH THE FRONT ARE VERY
SMALL...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS
TO A 1045 MB HIGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS EITHER SOUTHERN CANADA OR NY
AND NEW ENGLAND AND MOVE INTO A GOOD POSITION TO SET UP A
CLASSICAL/HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT. THEREFORE WILL START TEMPS
TUESDAY ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S
SOUTH. WITH THIS PATTERN...CAN EXPECT SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IN THE
TRIAD WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES
THERE...OTHERWISE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1258 AM WEDNESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL NC
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE NC COAST. WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW END MVFR
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH POCKETS OF LIFR CEILINGS. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WILL RESULT IN MVFR VISIBILITY WITH AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITY IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME BLUSTERY PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
WITH SUSTAINED NLY WINDS 10-18 MPH WITH GUST 30-35 MPH...ESPECIALLY
AT KFAY AND KRWI.

AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AVIATION
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM THE SW AFTER 18Z. SFC WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND BACK TO A W-NW DIRECTION WHILE CEILINGS
WILL LIFT INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AND THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF.

A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...CAUSING A
PERIOD OF MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...INITIATING A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...PWBADGETT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 260153
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
846 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...THEN TRACK NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 846 PM TUESDAY...

RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD NC THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
BACKING LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH OF SEVERAL
WAVES IN THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING NW OF TAMPA FLORIDA... IN THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND TRACK NE ALONG THE
MAIN COASTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT... REACHING OFF THE NC COAST
WEDNESDAY. WAA PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION
AS THE ATLANTIC GETS TAPPED IN ADDITION TO THE GULF OF MEXICO
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF A COLD HIGH TO SUPPLY INITIAL OR
INCOMING COLD AIR - ONLY THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD
GET ANY APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT OUR REGION... EVEN IN OUR FAR NW
PIEDMONT TRIAD AS THE THERMAL PROFILE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE END OF THE EVENT
NOONISH WEDNESDAY (AIDED BY THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER FORECAST EVEN
WITH ADEQUATE COOLING ALOFT NEAR THE END OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION).

NOTE THIS EVENING THAT IS WAS STILL IN THE 50S IN WASHINGTON DC AS
OF 800 PM... AND THE DEW POINTS WERE CLOSE TO 40. THIS CLEARLY SHOWS
THE LACK OF COLD DRY AIR FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH AND BRINGS
CONFIDENCE TO A HIGH LEVEL FOR THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE RAIN FOR
OUR REGION. ONE OF THE STRONGEST SIGNALS FOR ALL RAIN WAS THE
SURFACE WET BULBS FORECASTS THROUGH THE END OF THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION EVENT IN OUR NW ZONES ON WEDNESDAY ONLY DIP TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW 40... SUGGESTING LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF A MIX OR
CHANGE TO WET SNOW BEFORE ENDING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE... EVEN WITH
RAPIDLY COOLING ALOFT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL RAIN FOR THIS EVENT.

SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 1 INCH OR MORE QPF WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. RUNOFF PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE
RECENT 30-60 DAY DRY PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...

FOR WEDNESDAY: AS THE ABOVE-NOTED FORCING FEATURES CONTINUE TO
PROMPT DEEP AND RAPID ASCENT WHILE DEEP MOISTURE (PW FROM 1" WEST TO
1.5" EAST) REMAINS IN PLACE... WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WED MORNING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING
IS LIKELY TO RANGE FROM THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
QUARTER... WITH A FEW HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES (WHERE MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONGEST) AND IN
THE FAR WEST BENEATH ANY BANDED PRECIP. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP
ENDING FROM SSW TO NNE FROM LATE WED MORNING THROUGH EARLY WED
AFTERNOON... LIKELY EXITING THE NE CWA PRIOR TO 3 PM AS THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM SWINGS NE OVER CENTRAL NC. THE CHANCE OF A MIX
WITH WET SNOW WED MORNING AS THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSES OVERHEAD
(POTENTIALLY CAUSING FOCUSED STRONGER LIFT THAT COULD FURTHER COOL
THE LOW LEVELS) REMAINS PLAUSIBLE... BUT IS UNLIKELY TO BE
WIDESPREAD OR GENERATE ANY IMPACT. THE GFS IS TOO WARM (ABOVE-
FREEZING SURFACE-BASED LAYER DEPTH NEAR 2K FT) AND HAS BEEN TRENDING
WARMER... AND WHILE THE NAM IS COOLER (WARM LAYER DEPTH LESS THAN
1000 FT)... THE SREF PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE VERY LOW CHANCES OF
ANYTHING BUT RAIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH A PURELY LIQUID FORECAST AT
THIS TIME... BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN BOTH MODEL DATA AND
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS. WE SHOULD HAVE A SHORT WINDOW OF PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SW WED... AND THIS WILL MAKE HIGH
TEMPS A CHALLENGE... AS ANY INSOLATION WILL CAUSE INITIALLY CHILLY
READINGS TO WARM UP QUICKLY. WILL STICK WITH HIGHS OF 45-51... WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE... HOWEVER THESE COULD BE TOO
COOL IF WE GET APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE.

FOR WED NIGHT: FOCUS THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE CLIPPER WAVE AND LOW
NOW OVER WRN ND... POISED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THEN TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NC/VA LATE WED NIGHT. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP SPREADING
EASTWARD OVER NRN NC... MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64... FORCED
BY STRONG DPVA WITH THE STRENGTHENING VORTICITY MAX... A SHOT OF
MODEST UPPER DIVERGENCE... AND STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ON THE
ORDER OF 7.0 C/KM. WILL RETAIN GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH
(ESPECIALLY NEAR THE VA BORDER) STARTING MID-LATE EVENING...
SPREADING POPS EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OVERNIGHT... WITH
LITTLE TO NO POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT... GIVEN
THAT FORCING WILL BE ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH WITH MODEST PRECIP WATER...
PLUS SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ARE RATHER SMALL AND
CONFINED JUST TO THE NW AND FAR NORTH. THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS
ALSO SUGGEST JUST A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN... ALTHOUGH IF WE DO ACHIEVE
SOME INSTABILITY AND FOCUSED ASCENT... WE COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX WITH
WET SNOW NEAR THE VA STATE LINE. AGAIN... THE VERY LOW PROBABILITY
PRECLUDES MENTIONING IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME... BUT WILL
MONITOR TRENDS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S... CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: A FAIRLY STRONG VORT MAX WILL ACCOMPANY
THE PASSAGE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
TOTALS ARE FAIRLY LOW THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A SNOWFLAKE OR TWO THROUGH MID
MORNING...BUT THEN THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST ANYTHING THAT FALLS
THEREAFTER WILL BE ALL LIQUID. PRECIPITATION OF ANY KIND SHOULD BE
ENDING BY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
NORTH TO SOUTH. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS
CLEARING SKIES WHICH WILL HELP LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30
DEGREES.

FRIDAY THOUGH MONDAY NIGHT: THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
ON FRIDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FLATTEN
OUT. AS THIS HAPPENS...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND
AND THEN CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OUT TO SEA BY SUNDAY
BEFORE STALLING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE SOME COOL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH A WITH A WARMING TREND EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MODERATING TO THE LOW 50S FOR SATURDAY BEFORE
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S SUNDAY AND UPPER 60S ON MONDAY. LOWS WILL
START OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY MORNING AND CLIMB TO THE
LOW TO MID 40S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL GO FROM NORTHWESTERLY
ON FRIDAY TO SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

TUESDAY: A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. WHILE MODEL QPF VALUES WITH THE FRONT ARE VERY
SMALL...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS
TO A 1045 MB HIGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS EITHER SOUTHERN CANADA OR NY
AND NEW ENGLAND AND MOVE INTO A GOOD POSITION TO SET UP A
CLASSICAL/HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT. THEREFORE WILL START TEMPS
TUESDAY ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S
SOUTH. WITH THIS PATTERN...CAN EXPECT SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IN THE
TRIAD WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES
THERE...OTHERWISE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. MODERATE RAIN AND
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KT AFTER ~06Z...STRENGTHENING TO 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY
AS HIGH AS 30-35 KT BETWEEN 12-17Z WED. PRECIPITATION WILL LIGHTEN
AND BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH CEILINGS
IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR AND WINDS BECOMING WNW/NW AFTER 18Z WED
AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WED EVENING...HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING AS
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS LATE THU/THU NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...PWBADGETT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 252356 CCA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...THEN TRACK NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM TUESDAY...

REST OF TODAY: LIGHT TO MDT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER OUR SE AND
FAR SRN CWA EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL AREA... FUELED BY HIGH PW
VALUES (OVER 150% OF NORMAL) ALONG A TROPICAL-SOURCE MOISTURE
PLUME... WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA... AND WAVES OF ENHANCED UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG (160+ KT)
JET RUNNING FROM THE NRN GULF STATES TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.
WHILE THE BACK (NW) EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO WAVER
BACK AND FORTH ONE TO TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES... HI-RES NEAR TERM MODEL
OUTPUT (INCLUDING THE WRF-NMM/ARW AND HRRR) SUPPORTS HIGH RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA (SE OF HIGHWAY 1) FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH MORE PATCHY OR SPORADIC LIGHT RAIN A BIT
FURTHER INLAND... AND NEXT TO NOTHING OVER THE TRIAD. THE COLD
FRONT... NOW POSITIONED FROM JUST EAST OF ROCKY MOUNT TO SANFORD TO
JUST SE OF MONROE... CONTINUES TO PLOD ESE THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN NC...
CHARACTERIZED BY A WIND SHIFT TO NW AND DROP IN DEWPOINTS. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS BEFORE SETTLING AT
THE COAST BEFORE 00Z. TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR FALL SLOWLY THROUGH SUNSET.

FOR TONIGHT: THE LARGE SCALE MEAN TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL/ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD
OVER COASTAL CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT... AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE FAR NE GULF AND TRACKS NNE ACROSS NE FL AND ALONG THE SE
COAST OVERNIGHT... TO A POSITION NEAR THE SRN NC COAST BY 12Z WED
(THE GFS IS A TAD FASTER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF). A SECONDARY INVERTED
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE DEVELOPING LOW THIS EVENING UP THROUGH
WRN NC... AND THIS WILL HELP FOSTER RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
WEST AND A BIT EARLIER THAN IT WOULD OTHERWISE WITH JUST A COASTAL
LOW IN PLAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SRN PARTS OF
CENTRAL NC STARTING SOON AFTER SUNSET BEFORE SPREADING NORTHWARD
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA... PERSISTING FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS RAIN WILL BE INSTIGATED BY THIS TROUGH AND THE
APPROACH OF THE LOW... IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEP MOISTENING AND
STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA DPVA (AS STRONG VORTICITY NEAR
EL PASO DIVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH AND TOWARD THE SRN
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT)... STRONG HEIGHT FALLS (~150 M)...
STRENGTHENING MOIST UPGLIDE (ESPECIALLY EAST HALF)... POTENTIAL
BANDED PRECIP IN THE WEST... AND INTENSIFYING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRENGTHENING JET FROM THE GULF
STATES TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LATEST MODELS AND UPSTREAM PRECIP
SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS TRENDS TOWARD CATEGORICAL PRECIP STARTING MID
TO LATE EVENING... AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS. LOW TEMPS
ARE TOUGH AS DEWPOINTS HAVE YET TO FALL IN THE EAST (STILL IN LOW
60S) BUT HAVE SLIPPED INTO THE 30S IN THE NW CWA. WILL LEAN TOWARD
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH SUPPORTS LOWS OF 39-48... CLOSE TO THE
EARLIER FORECAST. SURFACE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE NORTH WILL STEADILY
INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES OUR COAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...

FOR WEDNESDAY: AS THE ABOVE-NOTED FORCING FEATURES CONTINUE TO
PROMPT DEEP AND RAPID ASCENT WHILE DEEP MOISTURE (PW FROM 1" WEST TO
1.5" EAST) REMAINS IN PLACE... WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WED MORNING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING
IS LIKELY TO RANGE FROM THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
QUARTER... WITH A FEW HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES (WHERE MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONGEST) AND IN
THE FAR WEST BENEATH ANY BANDED PRECIP. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP
ENDING FROM SSW TO NNE FROM LATE WED MORNING THROUGH EARLY WED
AFTERNOON... LIKELY EXITING THE NE CWA PRIOR TO 3 PM AS THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM SWINGS NE OVER CENTRAL NC. THE CHANCE OF A MIX
WITH WET SNOW WED MORNING AS THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSES OVERHEAD
(POTENTIALLY CAUSING FOCUSED STRONGER LIFT THAT COULD FURTHER COOL
THE LOW LEVELS) REMAINS PLAUSIBLE... BUT IS UNLIKELY TO BE
WIDESPREAD OR GENERATE ANY IMPACT. THE GFS IS TOO WARM (ABOVE-
FREEZING SURFACE-BASED LAYER DEPTH NEAR 2K FT) AND HAS BEEN TRENDING
WARMER... AND WHILE THE NAM IS COOLER (WARM LAYER DEPTH LESS THAN
1000 FT)... THE SREF PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE VERY LOW CHANCES OF
ANYTHING BUT RAIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH A PURELY LIQUID FORECAST AT
THIS TIME... BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN BOTH MODEL DATA AND
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS. WE SHOULD HAVE A SHORT WINDOW OF PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SW WED... AND THIS WILL MAKE HIGH
TEMPS A CHALLENGE... AS ANY INSOLATION WILL CAUSE INITIALLY CHILLY
READINGS TO WARM UP QUICKLY. WILL STICK WITH HIGHS OF 45-51... WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE... HOWEVER THESE COULD BE TOO
COOL IF WE GET APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE.

FOR WED NIGHT: FOCUS THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE CLIPPER WAVE AND LOW
NOW OVER WRN ND... POISED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THEN TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NC/VA LATE WED NIGHT. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP SPREADING
EASTWARD OVER NRN NC... MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64... FORCED
BY STRONG DPVA WITH THE STRENGTHENING VORTICITY MAX... A SHOT OF
MODEST UPPER DIVERGENCE... AND STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ON THE
ORDER OF 7.0 C/KM. WILL RETAIN GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH
(ESPECIALLY NEAR THE VA BORDER) STARTING MID-LATE EVENING...
SPREADING POPS EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OVERNIGHT... WITH
LITTLE TO NO POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT... GIVEN
THAT FORCING WILL BE ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH WITH MODEST PRECIP WATER...
PLUS SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ARE RATHER SMALL AND
CONFINED JUST TO THE NW AND FAR NORTH. THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS
ALSO SUGGEST JUST A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN... ALTHOUGH IF WE DO ACHIEVE
SOME INSTABILITY AND FOCUSED ASCENT... WE COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX WITH
WET SNOW NEAR THE VA STATE LINE. AGAIN... THE VERY LOW PROBABILITY
PRECLUDES MENTIONING IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME... BUT WILL
MONITOR TRENDS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S... CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: A FAIRLY STRONG VORT MAX WILL ACCOMPANY
THE PASSAGE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
TOTALS ARE FAIRLY LOW THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A SNOWFLAKE OR TWO THROUGH MID
MORNING...BUT THEN THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST ANYTHING THAT FALLS
THEREAFTER WILL BE ALL LIQUID. PRECIPITATION OF ANY KIND SHOULD BE
ENDING BY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
NORTH TO SOUTH. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS
CLEARING SKIES WHICH WILL HELP LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30
DEGREES.

FRIDAY THOUGH MONDAY NIGHT: THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
ON FRIDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FLATTEN
OUT. AS THIS HAPPENS...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND
AND THEN CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OUT TO SEA BY SUNDAY
BEFORE STALLING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE SOME COOL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH A WITH A WARMING TREND EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MODERATING TO THE LOW 50S FOR SATURDAY BEFORE
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S SUNDAY AND UPPER 60S ON MONDAY. LOWS WILL
START OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY MORNING AND CLIMB TO THE
LOW TO MID 40S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL GO FROM NORTHWESTERLY
ON FRIDAY TO SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

TUESDAY: A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. WHILE MODEL QPF VALUES WITH THE FRONT ARE VERY
SMALL...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS
TO A 1045 MB HIGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS EITHER SOUTHERN CANADA OR NY
AND NEW ENGLAND AND MOVE INTO A GOOD POSITION TO SET UP A
CLASSICAL/HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT. THEREFORE WILL START TEMPS
TUESDAY ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S
SOUTH. WITH THIS PATTERN...CAN EXPECT SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IN THE
TRIAD WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES
THERE...OTHERWISE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. MODERATE RAIN AND
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KT AFTER ~06Z...STRENGTHENING TO 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY
AS HIGH AS 30-35 KT BETWEEN 12-17Z WED. PRECIPITATION WILL LIGHTEN
AND BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH CEILINGS
IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR AND WINDS BECOMING WNW/NW AFTER 18Z WED
AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WED EVENING...HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING AS
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS LATE THU/THU NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 252356 CCA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...THEN TRACK NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM TUESDAY...

REST OF TODAY: LIGHT TO MDT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER OUR SE AND
FAR SRN CWA EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL AREA... FUELED BY HIGH PW
VALUES (OVER 150% OF NORMAL) ALONG A TROPICAL-SOURCE MOISTURE
PLUME... WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA... AND WAVES OF ENHANCED UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG (160+ KT)
JET RUNNING FROM THE NRN GULF STATES TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.
WHILE THE BACK (NW) EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO WAVER
BACK AND FORTH ONE TO TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES... HI-RES NEAR TERM MODEL
OUTPUT (INCLUDING THE WRF-NMM/ARW AND HRRR) SUPPORTS HIGH RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA (SE OF HIGHWAY 1) FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH MORE PATCHY OR SPORADIC LIGHT RAIN A BIT
FURTHER INLAND... AND NEXT TO NOTHING OVER THE TRIAD. THE COLD
FRONT... NOW POSITIONED FROM JUST EAST OF ROCKY MOUNT TO SANFORD TO
JUST SE OF MONROE... CONTINUES TO PLOD ESE THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN NC...
CHARACTERIZED BY A WIND SHIFT TO NW AND DROP IN DEWPOINTS. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS BEFORE SETTLING AT
THE COAST BEFORE 00Z. TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR FALL SLOWLY THROUGH SUNSET.

FOR TONIGHT: THE LARGE SCALE MEAN TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL/ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD
OVER COASTAL CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT... AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE FAR NE GULF AND TRACKS NNE ACROSS NE FL AND ALONG THE SE
COAST OVERNIGHT... TO A POSITION NEAR THE SRN NC COAST BY 12Z WED
(THE GFS IS A TAD FASTER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF). A SECONDARY INVERTED
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE DEVELOPING LOW THIS EVENING UP THROUGH
WRN NC... AND THIS WILL HELP FOSTER RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
WEST AND A BIT EARLIER THAN IT WOULD OTHERWISE WITH JUST A COASTAL
LOW IN PLAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SRN PARTS OF
CENTRAL NC STARTING SOON AFTER SUNSET BEFORE SPREADING NORTHWARD
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA... PERSISTING FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS RAIN WILL BE INSTIGATED BY THIS TROUGH AND THE
APPROACH OF THE LOW... IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEP MOISTENING AND
STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA DPVA (AS STRONG VORTICITY NEAR
EL PASO DIVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH AND TOWARD THE SRN
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT)... STRONG HEIGHT FALLS (~150 M)...
STRENGTHENING MOIST UPGLIDE (ESPECIALLY EAST HALF)... POTENTIAL
BANDED PRECIP IN THE WEST... AND INTENSIFYING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRENGTHENING JET FROM THE GULF
STATES TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LATEST MODELS AND UPSTREAM PRECIP
SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS TRENDS TOWARD CATEGORICAL PRECIP STARTING MID
TO LATE EVENING... AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS. LOW TEMPS
ARE TOUGH AS DEWPOINTS HAVE YET TO FALL IN THE EAST (STILL IN LOW
60S) BUT HAVE SLIPPED INTO THE 30S IN THE NW CWA. WILL LEAN TOWARD
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH SUPPORTS LOWS OF 39-48... CLOSE TO THE
EARLIER FORECAST. SURFACE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE NORTH WILL STEADILY
INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES OUR COAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...

FOR WEDNESDAY: AS THE ABOVE-NOTED FORCING FEATURES CONTINUE TO
PROMPT DEEP AND RAPID ASCENT WHILE DEEP MOISTURE (PW FROM 1" WEST TO
1.5" EAST) REMAINS IN PLACE... WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WED MORNING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING
IS LIKELY TO RANGE FROM THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
QUARTER... WITH A FEW HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES (WHERE MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONGEST) AND IN
THE FAR WEST BENEATH ANY BANDED PRECIP. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP
ENDING FROM SSW TO NNE FROM LATE WED MORNING THROUGH EARLY WED
AFTERNOON... LIKELY EXITING THE NE CWA PRIOR TO 3 PM AS THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM SWINGS NE OVER CENTRAL NC. THE CHANCE OF A MIX
WITH WET SNOW WED MORNING AS THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSES OVERHEAD
(POTENTIALLY CAUSING FOCUSED STRONGER LIFT THAT COULD FURTHER COOL
THE LOW LEVELS) REMAINS PLAUSIBLE... BUT IS UNLIKELY TO BE
WIDESPREAD OR GENERATE ANY IMPACT. THE GFS IS TOO WARM (ABOVE-
FREEZING SURFACE-BASED LAYER DEPTH NEAR 2K FT) AND HAS BEEN TRENDING
WARMER... AND WHILE THE NAM IS COOLER (WARM LAYER DEPTH LESS THAN
1000 FT)... THE SREF PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE VERY LOW CHANCES OF
ANYTHING BUT RAIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH A PURELY LIQUID FORECAST AT
THIS TIME... BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN BOTH MODEL DATA AND
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS. WE SHOULD HAVE A SHORT WINDOW OF PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SW WED... AND THIS WILL MAKE HIGH
TEMPS A CHALLENGE... AS ANY INSOLATION WILL CAUSE INITIALLY CHILLY
READINGS TO WARM UP QUICKLY. WILL STICK WITH HIGHS OF 45-51... WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE... HOWEVER THESE COULD BE TOO
COOL IF WE GET APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE.

FOR WED NIGHT: FOCUS THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE CLIPPER WAVE AND LOW
NOW OVER WRN ND... POISED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THEN TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NC/VA LATE WED NIGHT. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP SPREADING
EASTWARD OVER NRN NC... MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64... FORCED
BY STRONG DPVA WITH THE STRENGTHENING VORTICITY MAX... A SHOT OF
MODEST UPPER DIVERGENCE... AND STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ON THE
ORDER OF 7.0 C/KM. WILL RETAIN GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH
(ESPECIALLY NEAR THE VA BORDER) STARTING MID-LATE EVENING...
SPREADING POPS EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OVERNIGHT... WITH
LITTLE TO NO POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT... GIVEN
THAT FORCING WILL BE ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH WITH MODEST PRECIP WATER...
PLUS SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ARE RATHER SMALL AND
CONFINED JUST TO THE NW AND FAR NORTH. THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS
ALSO SUGGEST JUST A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN... ALTHOUGH IF WE DO ACHIEVE
SOME INSTABILITY AND FOCUSED ASCENT... WE COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX WITH
WET SNOW NEAR THE VA STATE LINE. AGAIN... THE VERY LOW PROBABILITY
PRECLUDES MENTIONING IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME... BUT WILL
MONITOR TRENDS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S... CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: A FAIRLY STRONG VORT MAX WILL ACCOMPANY
THE PASSAGE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
TOTALS ARE FAIRLY LOW THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A SNOWFLAKE OR TWO THROUGH MID
MORNING...BUT THEN THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST ANYTHING THAT FALLS
THEREAFTER WILL BE ALL LIQUID. PRECIPITATION OF ANY KIND SHOULD BE
ENDING BY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
NORTH TO SOUTH. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS
CLEARING SKIES WHICH WILL HELP LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30
DEGREES.

FRIDAY THOUGH MONDAY NIGHT: THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
ON FRIDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FLATTEN
OUT. AS THIS HAPPENS...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND
AND THEN CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OUT TO SEA BY SUNDAY
BEFORE STALLING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE SOME COOL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH A WITH A WARMING TREND EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MODERATING TO THE LOW 50S FOR SATURDAY BEFORE
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S SUNDAY AND UPPER 60S ON MONDAY. LOWS WILL
START OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY MORNING AND CLIMB TO THE
LOW TO MID 40S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL GO FROM NORTHWESTERLY
ON FRIDAY TO SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

TUESDAY: A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. WHILE MODEL QPF VALUES WITH THE FRONT ARE VERY
SMALL...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS
TO A 1045 MB HIGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS EITHER SOUTHERN CANADA OR NY
AND NEW ENGLAND AND MOVE INTO A GOOD POSITION TO SET UP A
CLASSICAL/HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT. THEREFORE WILL START TEMPS
TUESDAY ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S
SOUTH. WITH THIS PATTERN...CAN EXPECT SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IN THE
TRIAD WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES
THERE...OTHERWISE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. MODERATE RAIN AND
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KT AFTER ~06Z...STRENGTHENING TO 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY
AS HIGH AS 30-35 KT BETWEEN 12-17Z WED. PRECIPITATION WILL LIGHTEN
AND BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH CEILINGS
IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR AND WINDS BECOMING WNW/NW AFTER 18Z WED
AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WED EVENING...HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING AS
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS LATE THU/THU NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 252355
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...THEN TRACK NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM TUESDAY...

REST OF TODAY: LIGHT TO MDT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER OUR SE AND
FAR SRN CWA EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL AREA... FUELED BY HIGH PW
VALUES (OVER 150% OF NORMAL) ALONG A TROPICAL-SOURCE MOISTURE
PLUME... WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA... AND WAVES OF ENHANCED UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG (160+ KT)
JET RUNNING FROM THE NRN GULF STATES TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.
WHILE THE BACK (NW) EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO WAVER
BACK AND FORTH ONE TO TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES... HI-RES NEAR TERM MODEL
OUTPUT (INCLUDING THE WRF-NMM/ARW AND HRRR) SUPPORTS HIGH RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA (SE OF HIGHWAY 1) FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH MORE PATCHY OR SPORADIC LIGHT RAIN A BIT
FURTHER INLAND... AND NEXT TO NOTHING OVER THE TRIAD. THE COLD
FRONT... NOW POSITIONED FROM JUST EAST OF ROCKY MOUNT TO SANFORD TO
JUST SE OF MONROE... CONTINUES TO PLOD ESE THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN NC...
CHARACTERIZED BY A WIND SHIFT TO NW AND DROP IN DEWPOINTS. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS BEFORE SETTLING AT
THE COAST BEFORE 00Z. TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR FALL SLOWLY THROUGH SUNSET.

FOR TONIGHT: THE LARGE SCALE MEAN TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL/ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD
OVER COASTAL CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT... AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE FAR NE GULF AND TRACKS NNE ACROSS NE FL AND ALONG THE SE
COAST OVERNIGHT... TO A POSITION NEAR THE SRN NC COAST BY 12Z WED
(THE GFS IS A TAD FASTER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF). A SECONDARY INVERTED
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE DEVELOPING LOW THIS EVENING UP THROUGH
WRN NC... AND THIS WILL HELP FOSTER RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
WEST AND A BIT EARLIER THAN IT WOULD OTHERWISE WITH JUST A COASTAL
LOW IN PLAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SRN PARTS OF
CENTRAL NC STARTING SOON AFTER SUNSET BEFORE SPREADING NORTHWARD
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA... PERSISTING FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS RAIN WILL BE INSTIGATED BY THIS TROUGH AND THE
APPROACH OF THE LOW... IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEP MOISTENING AND
STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA DPVA (AS STRONG VORTICITY NEAR
EL PASO DIVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH AND TOWARD THE SRN
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT)... STRONG HEIGHT FALLS (~150 M)...
STRENGTHENING MOIST UPGLIDE (ESPECIALLY EAST HALF)... POTENTIAL
BANDED PRECIP IN THE WEST... AND INTENSIFYING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRENGTHENING JET FROM THE GULF
STATES TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LATEST MODELS AND UPSTREAM PRECIP
SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS TRENDS TOWARD CATEGORICAL PRECIP STARTING MID
TO LATE EVENING... AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS. LOW TEMPS
ARE TOUGH AS DEWPOINTS HAVE YET TO FALL IN THE EAST (STILL IN LOW
60S) BUT HAVE SLIPPED INTO THE 30S IN THE NW CWA. WILL LEAN TOWARD
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH SUPPORTS LOWS OF 39-48... CLOSE TO THE
EARLIER FORECAST. SURFACE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE NORTH WILL STEADILY
INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES OUR COAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...

FOR WEDNESDAY: AS THE ABOVE-NOTED FORCING FEATURES CONTINUE TO
PROMPT DEEP AND RAPID ASCENT WHILE DEEP MOISTURE (PW FROM 1" WEST TO
1.5" EAST) REMAINS IN PLACE... WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WED MORNING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING
IS LIKELY TO RANGE FROM THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
QUARTER... WITH A FEW HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES (WHERE MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONGEST) AND IN
THE FAR WEST BENEATH ANY BANDED PRECIP. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP
ENDING FROM SSW TO NNE FROM LATE WED MORNING THROUGH EARLY WED
AFTERNOON... LIKELY EXITING THE NE CWA PRIOR TO 3 PM AS THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM SWINGS NE OVER CENTRAL NC. THE CHANCE OF A MIX
WITH WET SNOW WED MORNING AS THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSES OVERHEAD
(POTENTIALLY CAUSING FOCUSED STRONGER LIFT THAT COULD FURTHER COOL
THE LOW LEVELS) REMAINS PLAUSIBLE... BUT IS UNLIKELY TO BE
WIDESPREAD OR GENERATE ANY IMPACT. THE GFS IS TOO WARM (ABOVE-
FREEZING SURFACE-BASED LAYER DEPTH NEAR 2K FT) AND HAS BEEN TRENDING
WARMER... AND WHILE THE NAM IS COOLER (WARM LAYER DEPTH LESS THAN
1000 FT)... THE SREF PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE VERY LOW CHANCES OF
ANYTHING BUT RAIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH A PURELY LIQUID FORECAST AT
THIS TIME... BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN BOTH MODEL DATA AND
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS. WE SHOULD HAVE A SHORT WINDOW OF PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SW WED... AND THIS WILL MAKE HIGH
TEMPS A CHALLENGE... AS ANY INSOLATION WILL CAUSE INITIALLY CHILLY
READINGS TO WARM UP QUICKLY. WILL STICK WITH HIGHS OF 45-51... WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE... HOWEVER THESE COULD BE TOO
COOL IF WE GET APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE.

FOR WED NIGHT: FOCUS THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE CLIPPER WAVE AND LOW
NOW OVER WRN ND... POISED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THEN TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NC/VA LATE WED NIGHT. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP SPREADING
EASTWARD OVER NRN NC... MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64... FORCED
BY STRONG DPVA WITH THE STRENGTHENING VORTICITY MAX... A SHOT OF
MODEST UPPER DIVERGENCE... AND STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ON THE
ORDER OF 7.0 C/KM. WILL RETAIN GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH
(ESPECIALLY NEAR THE VA BORDER) STARTING MID-LATE EVENING...
SPREADING POPS EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OVERNIGHT... WITH
LITTLE TO NO POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT... GIVEN
THAT FORCING WILL BE ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH WITH MODEST PRECIP WATER...
PLUS SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ARE RATHER SMALL AND
CONFINED JUST TO THE NW AND FAR NORTH. THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS
ALSO SUGGEST JUST A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN... ALTHOUGH IF WE DO ACHIEVE
SOME INSTABILITY AND FOCUSED ASCENT... WE COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX WITH
WET SNOW NEAR THE VA STATE LINE. AGAIN... THE VERY LOW PROBABILITY
PRECLUDES MENTIONING IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME... BUT WILL
MONITOR TRENDS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S... CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: A FAIRLY STRONG VORT MAX WILL ACCOMPANY
THE PASSAGE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
TOTALS ARE FAIRLY LOW THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A SNOWFLAKE OR TWO THROUGH MID
MORNING...BUT THEN THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST ANYTHING THAT FALLS
THEREAFTER WILL BE ALL LIQUID. PRECIPITATION OF ANY KIND SHOULD BE
ENDING BY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
NORTH TO SOUTH. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS
CLEARING SKIES WHICH WILL HELP LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30
DEGREES.

FRIDAY THOUGH MONDAY NIGHT: THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
ON FRIDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FLATTEN
OUT. AS THIS HAPPENS...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND
AND THEN CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OUT TO SEA BY SUNDAY
BEFORE STALLING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE SOME COOL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH A WITH A WARMING TREND EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MODERATING TO THE LOW 50S FOR SATURDAY BEFORE
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S SUNDAY AND UPPER 60S ON MONDAY. LOWS WILL
START OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY MORNING AND CLIMB TO THE
LOW TO MID 40S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL GO FROM NORTHWESTERLY
ON FRIDAY TO SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

TUESDAY: A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. WHILE MODEL QPF VALUES WITH THE FRONT ARE VERY
SMALL...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS
TO A 1045 MB HIGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS EITHER SOUTHERN CANADA OR NY
AND NEW ENGLAND AND MOVE INTO A GOOD POSITION TO SET UP A
CLASSICAL/HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT. THEREFORE WILL START TEMPS
TUESDAY ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S
SOUTH. WITH THIS PATTERN...CAN EXPECT SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IN THE
TRIAD WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES
THERE...OTHERWISE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. MODERATE RAIN AND
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KT AFTER ~06Z...STRENGTHENING TO 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY
AS HIGH AS 30-35 KT BETWEEN 12-17Z WED. PRECIPITATION WILL LIGHTEN
AND BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH CEILINGS
IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR AND WINDS BECOMING WNW/NW AFTER 18Z WED
AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WED EVENING...HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING AS
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS LATE THU/THU NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 252355
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...THEN TRACK NORTHEAST OFFSHORE THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM TUESDAY...

REST OF TODAY: LIGHT TO MDT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER OUR SE AND
FAR SRN CWA EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL AREA... FUELED BY HIGH PW
VALUES (OVER 150% OF NORMAL) ALONG A TROPICAL-SOURCE MOISTURE
PLUME... WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA... AND WAVES OF ENHANCED UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG (160+ KT)
JET RUNNING FROM THE NRN GULF STATES TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.
WHILE THE BACK (NW) EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO WAVER
BACK AND FORTH ONE TO TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES... HI-RES NEAR TERM MODEL
OUTPUT (INCLUDING THE WRF-NMM/ARW AND HRRR) SUPPORTS HIGH RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA (SE OF HIGHWAY 1) FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH MORE PATCHY OR SPORADIC LIGHT RAIN A BIT
FURTHER INLAND... AND NEXT TO NOTHING OVER THE TRIAD. THE COLD
FRONT... NOW POSITIONED FROM JUST EAST OF ROCKY MOUNT TO SANFORD TO
JUST SE OF MONROE... CONTINUES TO PLOD ESE THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN NC...
CHARACTERIZED BY A WIND SHIFT TO NW AND DROP IN DEWPOINTS. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS BEFORE SETTLING AT
THE COAST BEFORE 00Z. TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR FALL SLOWLY THROUGH SUNSET.

FOR TONIGHT: THE LARGE SCALE MEAN TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL/ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD
OVER COASTAL CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT... AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE FAR NE GULF AND TRACKS NNE ACROSS NE FL AND ALONG THE SE
COAST OVERNIGHT... TO A POSITION NEAR THE SRN NC COAST BY 12Z WED
(THE GFS IS A TAD FASTER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF). A SECONDARY INVERTED
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE DEVELOPING LOW THIS EVENING UP THROUGH
WRN NC... AND THIS WILL HELP FOSTER RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
WEST AND A BIT EARLIER THAN IT WOULD OTHERWISE WITH JUST A COASTAL
LOW IN PLAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SRN PARTS OF
CENTRAL NC STARTING SOON AFTER SUNSET BEFORE SPREADING NORTHWARD
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA... PERSISTING FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS RAIN WILL BE INSTIGATED BY THIS TROUGH AND THE
APPROACH OF THE LOW... IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEP MOISTENING AND
STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA DPVA (AS STRONG VORTICITY NEAR
EL PASO DIVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH AND TOWARD THE SRN
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT)... STRONG HEIGHT FALLS (~150 M)...
STRENGTHENING MOIST UPGLIDE (ESPECIALLY EAST HALF)... POTENTIAL
BANDED PRECIP IN THE WEST... AND INTENSIFYING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRENGTHENING JET FROM THE GULF
STATES TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LATEST MODELS AND UPSTREAM PRECIP
SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS TRENDS TOWARD CATEGORICAL PRECIP STARTING MID
TO LATE EVENING... AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS. LOW TEMPS
ARE TOUGH AS DEWPOINTS HAVE YET TO FALL IN THE EAST (STILL IN LOW
60S) BUT HAVE SLIPPED INTO THE 30S IN THE NW CWA. WILL LEAN TOWARD
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH SUPPORTS LOWS OF 39-48... CLOSE TO THE
EARLIER FORECAST. SURFACE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE NORTH WILL STEADILY
INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES OUR COAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...

FOR WEDNESDAY: AS THE ABOVE-NOTED FORCING FEATURES CONTINUE TO
PROMPT DEEP AND RAPID ASCENT WHILE DEEP MOISTURE (PW FROM 1" WEST TO
1.5" EAST) REMAINS IN PLACE... WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WED MORNING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING
IS LIKELY TO RANGE FROM THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
QUARTER... WITH A FEW HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES (WHERE MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONGEST) AND IN
THE FAR WEST BENEATH ANY BANDED PRECIP. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP
ENDING FROM SSW TO NNE FROM LATE WED MORNING THROUGH EARLY WED
AFTERNOON... LIKELY EXITING THE NE CWA PRIOR TO 3 PM AS THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM SWINGS NE OVER CENTRAL NC. THE CHANCE OF A MIX
WITH WET SNOW WED MORNING AS THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSES OVERHEAD
(POTENTIALLY CAUSING FOCUSED STRONGER LIFT THAT COULD FURTHER COOL
THE LOW LEVELS) REMAINS PLAUSIBLE... BUT IS UNLIKELY TO BE
WIDESPREAD OR GENERATE ANY IMPACT. THE GFS IS TOO WARM (ABOVE-
FREEZING SURFACE-BASED LAYER DEPTH NEAR 2K FT) AND HAS BEEN TRENDING
WARMER... AND WHILE THE NAM IS COOLER (WARM LAYER DEPTH LESS THAN
1000 FT)... THE SREF PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE VERY LOW CHANCES OF
ANYTHING BUT RAIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH A PURELY LIQUID FORECAST AT
THIS TIME... BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN BOTH MODEL DATA AND
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS. WE SHOULD HAVE A SHORT WINDOW OF PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SW WED... AND THIS WILL MAKE HIGH
TEMPS A CHALLENGE... AS ANY INSOLATION WILL CAUSE INITIALLY CHILLY
READINGS TO WARM UP QUICKLY. WILL STICK WITH HIGHS OF 45-51... WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE... HOWEVER THESE COULD BE TOO
COOL IF WE GET APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE.

FOR WED NIGHT: FOCUS THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE CLIPPER WAVE AND LOW
NOW OVER WRN ND... POISED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THEN TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NC/VA LATE WED NIGHT. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP SPREADING
EASTWARD OVER NRN NC... MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64... FORCED
BY STRONG DPVA WITH THE STRENGTHENING VORTICITY MAX... A SHOT OF
MODEST UPPER DIVERGENCE... AND STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ON THE
ORDER OF 7.0 C/KM. WILL RETAIN GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH
(ESPECIALLY NEAR THE VA BORDER) STARTING MID-LATE EVENING...
SPREADING POPS EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OVERNIGHT... WITH
LITTLE TO NO POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT... GIVEN
THAT FORCING WILL BE ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH WITH MODEST PRECIP WATER...
PLUS SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ARE RATHER SMALL AND
CONFINED JUST TO THE NW AND FAR NORTH. THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS
ALSO SUGGEST JUST A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN... ALTHOUGH IF WE DO ACHIEVE
SOME INSTABILITY AND FOCUSED ASCENT... WE COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX WITH
WET SNOW NEAR THE VA STATE LINE. AGAIN... THE VERY LOW PROBABILITY
PRECLUDES MENTIONING IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME... BUT WILL
MONITOR TRENDS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S... CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: A FAIRLY STRONG VORT MAX WILL ACCOMPANY
THE PASSAGE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
TOTALS ARE FAIRLY LOW THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A SNOWFLAKE OR TWO THROUGH MID
MORNING...BUT THEN THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST ANYTHING THAT FALLS
THEREAFTER WILL BE ALL LIQUID. PRECIPITATION OF ANY KIND SHOULD BE
ENDING BY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
NORTH TO SOUTH. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS
CLEARING SKIES WHICH WILL HELP LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30
DEGREES.

FRIDAY THOUGH MONDAY NIGHT: THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
ON FRIDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FLATTEN
OUT. AS THIS HAPPENS...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND
AND THEN CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OUT TO SEA BY SUNDAY
BEFORE STALLING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE SOME COOL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH A WITH A WARMING TREND EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MODERATING TO THE LOW 50S FOR SATURDAY BEFORE
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S SUNDAY AND UPPER 60S ON MONDAY. LOWS WILL
START OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY MORNING AND CLIMB TO THE
LOW TO MID 40S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL GO FROM NORTHWESTERLY
ON FRIDAY TO SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

TUESDAY: A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. WHILE MODEL QPF VALUES WITH THE FRONT ARE VERY
SMALL...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS
TO A 1045 MB HIGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS EITHER SOUTHERN CANADA OR NY
AND NEW ENGLAND AND MOVE INTO A GOOD POSITION TO SET UP A
CLASSICAL/HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT. THEREFORE WILL START TEMPS
TUESDAY ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S
SOUTH. WITH THIS PATTERN...CAN EXPECT SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IN THE
TRIAD WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES
THERE...OTHERWISE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: EXPECT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. MODERATE RAIN AND
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KT AFTER ~06Z...STRENGTHENING TO 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY
AS HIGH AS 30-35 KT BETWEEN 12-17Z WED. PRECIPITATION WILL LIGHTEN
AND BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH CEILINGS
IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR AND WINDS BECOMING WNW/NW AFTER 18Z WED
AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WED EVENING...HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING AS
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS LATE THU/THU NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251937
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
237 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL HOLD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINA COAST.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THEN... HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM TUESDAY...

REST OF TODAY: LIGHT TO MDT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER OUR SE AND
FAR SRN CWA EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL AREA... FUELED BY HIGH PW
VALUES (OVER 150% OF NORMAL) ALONG A TROPICAL-SOURCE MOISTURE
PLUME... WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA... AND WAVES OF ENHANCED UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG (160+ KT)
JET RUNNING FROM THE NRN GULF STATES TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.
WHILE THE BACK (NW) EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO WAVER
BACK AND FORTH ONE TO TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES... HI-RES NEAR TERM MODEL
OUTPUT (INCLUDING THE WRF-NMM/ARW AND HRRR) SUPPORTS HIGH RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA (SE OF HIGHWAY 1) FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH MORE PATCHY OR SPORADIC LIGHT RAIN A BIT
FURTHER INLAND... AND NEXT TO NOTHING OVER THE TRIAD. THE COLD
FRONT... NOW POSITIONED FROM JUST EAST OF ROCKY MOUNT TO SANFORD TO
JUST SE OF MONROE... CONTINUES TO PLOD ESE THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN NC...
CHARACTERIZED BY A WIND SHIFT TO NW AND DROP IN DEWPOINTS. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS BEFORE SETTLING AT
THE COAST BEFORE 00Z. TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR FALL SLOWLY THROUGH SUNSET.

FOR TONIGHT: THE LARGE SCALE MEAN TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL/ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD
OVER COASTAL CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT... AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE FAR NE GULF AND TRACKS NNE ACROSS NE FL AND ALONG THE SE
COAST OVERNIGHT... TO A POSITION NEAR THE SRN NC COAST BY 12Z WED
(THE GFS IS A TAD FASTER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF). A SECONDARY INVERTED
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE DEVELOPING LOW THIS EVENING UP THROUGH
WRN NC... AND THIS WILL HELP FOSTER RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
WEST AND A BIT EARLIER THAN IT WOULD OTHERWISE WITH JUST A COASTAL
LOW IN PLAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SRN PARTS OF
CENTRAL NC STARTING SOON AFTER SUNSET BEFORE SPREADING NORTHWARD
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA... PERSISTING FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS RAIN WILL BE INSTIGATED BY THIS TROUGH AND THE
APPROACH OF THE LOW... IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEP MOISTENING AND
STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA DPVA (AS STRONG VORTICITY NEAR
EL PASO DIVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH AND TOWARD THE SRN
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT)... STRONG HEIGHT FALLS (~150 M)...
STRENGTHENING MOIST UPGLIDE (ESPECIALLY EAST HALF)... POTENTIAL
BANDED PRECIP IN THE WEST... AND INTENSIFYING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRENGTHENING JET FROM THE GULF
STATES TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LATEST MODELS AND UPSTREAM PRECIP
SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS TRENDS TOWARD CATEGORICAL PRECIP STARTING MID
TO LATE EVENING... AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS. LOW TEMPS
ARE TOUGH AS DEWPOINTS HAVE YET TO FALL IN THE EAST (STILL IN LOW
60S) BUT HAVE SLIPPED INTO THE 30S IN THE NW CWA. WILL LEAN TOWARD
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH SUPPORTS LOWS OF 39-48... CLOSE TO THE
EARLIER FORECAST. SURFACE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE NORTH WILL STEADILY
INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES OUR COAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...

FOR WEDNESDAY: AS THE ABOVE-NOTED FORCING FEATURES CONTINUE TO
PROMPT DEEP AND RAPID ASCENT WHILE DEEP MOISTURE (PW FROM 1" WEST TO
1.5" EAST) REMAINS IN PLACE... WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WED MORNING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING
IS LIKELY TO RANGE FROM THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
QUARTER... WITH A FEW HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES (WHERE MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONGEST) AND IN
THE FAR WEST BENEATH ANY BANDED PRECIP. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP
ENDING FROM SSW TO NNE FROM LATE WED MORNING THROUGH EARLY WED
AFTERNOON... LIKELY EXITING THE NE CWA PRIOR TO 3 PM AS THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM SWINGS NE OVER CENTRAL NC. THE CHANCE OF A MIX
WITH WET SNOW WED MORNING AS THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSES OVERHEAD
(POTENTIALLY CAUSING FOCUSED STRONGER LIFT THAT COULD FURTHER COOL
THE LOW LEVELS) REMAINS PLAUSIBLE... BUT IS UNLIKELY TO BE
WIDESPREAD OR GENERATE ANY IMPACT. THE GFS IS TOO WARM (ABOVE-
FREEZING SURFACE-BASED LAYER DEPTH NEAR 2K FT) AND HAS BEEN TRENDING
WARMER... AND WHILE THE NAM IS COOLER (WARM LAYER DEPTH LESS THAN
1000 FT)... THE SREF PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE VERY LOW CHANCES OF
ANYTHING BUT RAIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH A PURELY LIQUID FORECAST AT
THIS TIME... BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN BOTH MODEL DATA AND
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS. WE SHOULD HAVE A SHORT WINDOW OF PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SW WED... AND THIS WILL MAKE HIGH
TEMPS A CHALLENGE... AS ANY INSOLATION WILL CAUSE INITIALLY CHILLY
READINGS TO WARM UP QUICKLY. WILL STICK WITH HIGHS OF 45-51... WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE... HOWEVER THESE COULD BE TOO
COOL IF WE GET APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE.

FOR WED NIGHT: FOCUS THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE CLIPPER WAVE AND LOW
NOW OVER WRN ND... POISED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THEN TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NC/VA LATE WED NIGHT. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP SPREADING
EASTWARD OVER NRN NC... MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64... FORCED
BY STRONG DPVA WITH THE STRENGTHENING VORTICITY MAX... A SHOT OF
MODEST UPPER DIVERGENCE... AND STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ON THE
ORDER OF 7.0 C/KM. WILL RETAIN GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH
(ESPECIALLY NEAR THE VA BORDER) STARTING MID-LATE EVENING...
SPREADING POPS EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OVERNIGHT... WITH
LITTLE TO NO POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT... GIVEN
THAT FORCING WILL BE ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH WITH MODEST PRECIP WATER...
PLUS SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ARE RATHER SMALL AND
CONFINED JUST TO THE NW AND FAR NORTH. THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS
ALSO SUGGEST JUST A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN... ALTHOUGH IF WE DO ACHIEVE
SOME INSTABILITY AND FOCUSED ASCENT... WE COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX WITH
WET SNOW NEAR THE VA STATE LINE. AGAIN... THE VERY LOW PROBABILITY
PRECLUDES MENTIONING IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME... BUT WILL
MONITOR TRENDS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S... CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: A FAIRLY STRONG VORT MAX WILL ACCOMPANY
THE PASSAGE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
TOTALS ARE FAIRLY LOW THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A SNOWFLAKE OR TWO THROUGH MID
MORNING...BUT THEN THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST ANYTHING THAT FALLS
THEREAFTER WILL BE ALL LIQUID. PRECIPITATION OF ANY KIND SHOULD BE
ENDING BY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
NORTH TO SOUTH. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS
CLEARING SKIES WHICH WILL HELP LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30
DEGREES.

FRIDAY THOUGH MONDAY NIGHT: THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
ON FRIDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FLATTEN
OUT. AS THIS HAPPENS...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND
AND THEN CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OUT TO SEA BY SUNDAY
BEFORE STALLING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE SOME COOL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH A WITH A WARMING TREND EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MODERATING TO THE LOW 50S FOR SATURDAY BEFORE
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S SUNDAY AND UPPER 60S ON MONDAY. LOWS WILL
START OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY MORNING AND CLIMB TO THE
LOW TO MID 40S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL GO FROM NORTHWESTERLY
ON FRIDAY TO SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

TUESDAY: A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. WHILE MODEL QPF VALUES WITH THE FRONT ARE VERY
SMALL...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS
TO A 1045 MB HIGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS EITHER SOUTHERN CANADA OR NY
AND NEW ENGLAND AND MOVE INTO A GOOD POSITION TO SET UP A
CLASSICAL/HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT. THEREFORE WILL START TEMPS
TUESDAY ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S
SOUTH. WITH THIS PATTERN...CAN EXPECT SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IN THE
TRIAD WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES
THERE...OTHERWISE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...

EXPECTED AVIATION CONDITIONS: POOR AT EASTERN TERMINALS... FAIR
EARLY THEN BECOMING POOR TONIGHT AT WESTERN TERMINALS. PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS: MVFR TO IFR CIGS PERSISTING
AT FAY/RDU/RWI AND SPREADING FROM SE TO NW AFFECTING ALL CENTRAL NC
TAF SITES STARTING 21Z-23Z AND PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. ALSO... MVFR/
IFR VSBYS IN RAIN ESPECIALLY RDU/RWI/FAY TONIGHT-WED... AND BRISK
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FROM NORTH TONIGHT 05Z-11Z AND FROM THE NW 11Z-
18Z WED AT ALL SITES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM THROUGH 00Z... THEN HIGH
AFTER 00Z.

A COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY ESE THROUGH CENTRAL NC WILL SETTLE OVER
COASTAL NC BY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER NRN FL AND TRACK
NE ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE SE AND CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
WED MORNING WHILE STRENGTHENING... THEN MOVE NORTH TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND WED AFTERNOON. STEADY RAIN WITH VFR OR BRIEFLY MVFR VSBYS
WILL PERSIST OVER AND NEAR FAY/RWI WITH MORE ON-AND-OFF RAIN AT RDU
AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN AT INT/GSO THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. STEADY
RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC SOUTH TO
NORTH FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL START TO
STRENGTHEN 04Z-06Z TONIGHT... RISING TO SUSTAINED 10-15 KTS
FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED... CIGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR
18Z-03Z... WITH DIMINISHING WINDS LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST-MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS SRN VA AND NRN NC
WED EVENING/NIGHT... BRINGING POTENTIAL IFR CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP
WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
RETURN AFTER 15Z THU... LASTING THROUGH SUN... AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 251937
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
237 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL HOLD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINA COAST.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THEN... HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM TUESDAY...

REST OF TODAY: LIGHT TO MDT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER OUR SE AND
FAR SRN CWA EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL AREA... FUELED BY HIGH PW
VALUES (OVER 150% OF NORMAL) ALONG A TROPICAL-SOURCE MOISTURE
PLUME... WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA... AND WAVES OF ENHANCED UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG (160+ KT)
JET RUNNING FROM THE NRN GULF STATES TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.
WHILE THE BACK (NW) EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO WAVER
BACK AND FORTH ONE TO TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES... HI-RES NEAR TERM MODEL
OUTPUT (INCLUDING THE WRF-NMM/ARW AND HRRR) SUPPORTS HIGH RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA (SE OF HIGHWAY 1) FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH MORE PATCHY OR SPORADIC LIGHT RAIN A BIT
FURTHER INLAND... AND NEXT TO NOTHING OVER THE TRIAD. THE COLD
FRONT... NOW POSITIONED FROM JUST EAST OF ROCKY MOUNT TO SANFORD TO
JUST SE OF MONROE... CONTINUES TO PLOD ESE THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN NC...
CHARACTERIZED BY A WIND SHIFT TO NW AND DROP IN DEWPOINTS. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS BEFORE SETTLING AT
THE COAST BEFORE 00Z. TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR FALL SLOWLY THROUGH SUNSET.

FOR TONIGHT: THE LARGE SCALE MEAN TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL/ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD
OVER COASTAL CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT... AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE FAR NE GULF AND TRACKS NNE ACROSS NE FL AND ALONG THE SE
COAST OVERNIGHT... TO A POSITION NEAR THE SRN NC COAST BY 12Z WED
(THE GFS IS A TAD FASTER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF). A SECONDARY INVERTED
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE DEVELOPING LOW THIS EVENING UP THROUGH
WRN NC... AND THIS WILL HELP FOSTER RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
WEST AND A BIT EARLIER THAN IT WOULD OTHERWISE WITH JUST A COASTAL
LOW IN PLAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SRN PARTS OF
CENTRAL NC STARTING SOON AFTER SUNSET BEFORE SPREADING NORTHWARD
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA... PERSISTING FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS RAIN WILL BE INSTIGATED BY THIS TROUGH AND THE
APPROACH OF THE LOW... IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEP MOISTENING AND
STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA DPVA (AS STRONG VORTICITY NEAR
EL PASO DIVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH AND TOWARD THE SRN
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT)... STRONG HEIGHT FALLS (~150 M)...
STRENGTHENING MOIST UPGLIDE (ESPECIALLY EAST HALF)... POTENTIAL
BANDED PRECIP IN THE WEST... AND INTENSIFYING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRENGTHENING JET FROM THE GULF
STATES TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LATEST MODELS AND UPSTREAM PRECIP
SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS TRENDS TOWARD CATEGORICAL PRECIP STARTING MID
TO LATE EVENING... AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS. LOW TEMPS
ARE TOUGH AS DEWPOINTS HAVE YET TO FALL IN THE EAST (STILL IN LOW
60S) BUT HAVE SLIPPED INTO THE 30S IN THE NW CWA. WILL LEAN TOWARD
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH SUPPORTS LOWS OF 39-48... CLOSE TO THE
EARLIER FORECAST. SURFACE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE NORTH WILL STEADILY
INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES OUR COAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...

FOR WEDNESDAY: AS THE ABOVE-NOTED FORCING FEATURES CONTINUE TO
PROMPT DEEP AND RAPID ASCENT WHILE DEEP MOISTURE (PW FROM 1" WEST TO
1.5" EAST) REMAINS IN PLACE... WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WED MORNING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING
IS LIKELY TO RANGE FROM THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
QUARTER... WITH A FEW HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES (WHERE MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONGEST) AND IN
THE FAR WEST BENEATH ANY BANDED PRECIP. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP
ENDING FROM SSW TO NNE FROM LATE WED MORNING THROUGH EARLY WED
AFTERNOON... LIKELY EXITING THE NE CWA PRIOR TO 3 PM AS THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM SWINGS NE OVER CENTRAL NC. THE CHANCE OF A MIX
WITH WET SNOW WED MORNING AS THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSES OVERHEAD
(POTENTIALLY CAUSING FOCUSED STRONGER LIFT THAT COULD FURTHER COOL
THE LOW LEVELS) REMAINS PLAUSIBLE... BUT IS UNLIKELY TO BE
WIDESPREAD OR GENERATE ANY IMPACT. THE GFS IS TOO WARM (ABOVE-
FREEZING SURFACE-BASED LAYER DEPTH NEAR 2K FT) AND HAS BEEN TRENDING
WARMER... AND WHILE THE NAM IS COOLER (WARM LAYER DEPTH LESS THAN
1000 FT)... THE SREF PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE VERY LOW CHANCES OF
ANYTHING BUT RAIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH A PURELY LIQUID FORECAST AT
THIS TIME... BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN BOTH MODEL DATA AND
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS. WE SHOULD HAVE A SHORT WINDOW OF PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SW WED... AND THIS WILL MAKE HIGH
TEMPS A CHALLENGE... AS ANY INSOLATION WILL CAUSE INITIALLY CHILLY
READINGS TO WARM UP QUICKLY. WILL STICK WITH HIGHS OF 45-51... WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE... HOWEVER THESE COULD BE TOO
COOL IF WE GET APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE.

FOR WED NIGHT: FOCUS THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE CLIPPER WAVE AND LOW
NOW OVER WRN ND... POISED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THEN TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NC/VA LATE WED NIGHT. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP SPREADING
EASTWARD OVER NRN NC... MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64... FORCED
BY STRONG DPVA WITH THE STRENGTHENING VORTICITY MAX... A SHOT OF
MODEST UPPER DIVERGENCE... AND STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ON THE
ORDER OF 7.0 C/KM. WILL RETAIN GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH
(ESPECIALLY NEAR THE VA BORDER) STARTING MID-LATE EVENING...
SPREADING POPS EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OVERNIGHT... WITH
LITTLE TO NO POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT... GIVEN
THAT FORCING WILL BE ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH WITH MODEST PRECIP WATER...
PLUS SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ARE RATHER SMALL AND
CONFINED JUST TO THE NW AND FAR NORTH. THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS
ALSO SUGGEST JUST A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN... ALTHOUGH IF WE DO ACHIEVE
SOME INSTABILITY AND FOCUSED ASCENT... WE COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX WITH
WET SNOW NEAR THE VA STATE LINE. AGAIN... THE VERY LOW PROBABILITY
PRECLUDES MENTIONING IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME... BUT WILL
MONITOR TRENDS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S... CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: A FAIRLY STRONG VORT MAX WILL ACCOMPANY
THE PASSAGE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
TOTALS ARE FAIRLY LOW THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A SNOWFLAKE OR TWO THROUGH MID
MORNING...BUT THEN THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST ANYTHING THAT FALLS
THEREAFTER WILL BE ALL LIQUID. PRECIPITATION OF ANY KIND SHOULD BE
ENDING BY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
NORTH TO SOUTH. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS
CLEARING SKIES WHICH WILL HELP LOWS DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30
DEGREES.

FRIDAY THOUGH MONDAY NIGHT: THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
ON FRIDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FLATTEN
OUT. AS THIS HAPPENS...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND
AND THEN CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OUT TO SEA BY SUNDAY
BEFORE STALLING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. THE RESULT WILL BE SOME COOL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH A WITH A WARMING TREND EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MODERATING TO THE LOW 50S FOR SATURDAY BEFORE
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 60S SUNDAY AND UPPER 60S ON MONDAY. LOWS WILL
START OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY MORNING AND CLIMB TO THE
LOW TO MID 40S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL GO FROM NORTHWESTERLY
ON FRIDAY TO SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME.

TUESDAY: A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL SLOWLY DROP ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. WHILE MODEL QPF VALUES WITH THE FRONT ARE VERY
SMALL...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS
TO A 1045 MB HIGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS EITHER SOUTHERN CANADA OR NY
AND NEW ENGLAND AND MOVE INTO A GOOD POSITION TO SET UP A
CLASSICAL/HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT. THEREFORE WILL START TEMPS
TUESDAY ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S
SOUTH. WITH THIS PATTERN...CAN EXPECT SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IN THE
TRIAD WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES
THERE...OTHERWISE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...

EXPECTED AVIATION CONDITIONS: POOR AT EASTERN TERMINALS... FAIR
EARLY THEN BECOMING POOR TONIGHT AT WESTERN TERMINALS. PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS: MVFR TO IFR CIGS PERSISTING
AT FAY/RDU/RWI AND SPREADING FROM SE TO NW AFFECTING ALL CENTRAL NC
TAF SITES STARTING 21Z-23Z AND PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. ALSO... MVFR/
IFR VSBYS IN RAIN ESPECIALLY RDU/RWI/FAY TONIGHT-WED... AND BRISK
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FROM NORTH TONIGHT 05Z-11Z AND FROM THE NW 11Z-
18Z WED AT ALL SITES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM THROUGH 00Z... THEN HIGH
AFTER 00Z.

A COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY ESE THROUGH CENTRAL NC WILL SETTLE OVER
COASTAL NC BY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER NRN FL AND TRACK
NE ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE SE AND CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
WED MORNING WHILE STRENGTHENING... THEN MOVE NORTH TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND WED AFTERNOON. STEADY RAIN WITH VFR OR BRIEFLY MVFR VSBYS
WILL PERSIST OVER AND NEAR FAY/RWI WITH MORE ON-AND-OFF RAIN AT RDU
AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN AT INT/GSO THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. STEADY
RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC SOUTH TO
NORTH FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL START TO
STRENGTHEN 04Z-06Z TONIGHT... RISING TO SUSTAINED 10-15 KTS
FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED... CIGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR
18Z-03Z... WITH DIMINISHING WINDS LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST-MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS SRN VA AND NRN NC
WED EVENING/NIGHT... BRINGING POTENTIAL IFR CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP
WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
RETURN AFTER 15Z THU... LASTING THROUGH SUN... AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251911
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
210 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL HOLD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINA COAST.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THEN... HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM TUESDAY...

REST OF TODAY: LIGHT TO MDT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER OUR SE AND
FAR SRN CWA EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL AREA... FUELED BY HIGH PW
VALUES (OVER 150% OF NORMAL) ALONG A TROPICAL-SOURCE MOISTURE
PLUME... WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA... AND WAVES OF ENHANCED UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG (160+ KT)
JET RUNNING FROM THE NRN GULF STATES TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.
WHILE THE BACK (NW) EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO WAVER
BACK AND FORTH ONE TO TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES... HI-RES NEAR TERM MODEL
OUTPUT (INCLUDING THE WRF-NMM/ARW AND HRRR) SUPPORTS HIGH RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA (SE OF HIGHWAY 1) FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH MORE PATCHY OR SPORADIC LIGHT RAIN A BIT
FURTHER INLAND... AND NEXT TO NOTHING OVER THE TRIAD. THE COLD
FRONT... NOW POSITIONED FROM JUST EAST OF ROCKY MOUNT TO SANFORD TO
JUST SE OF MONROE... CONTINUES TO PLOD ESE THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN NC...
CHARACTERIZED BY A WIND SHIFT TO NW AND DROP IN DEWPOINTS. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS BEFORE SETTLING AT
THE COAST BEFORE 00Z. TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR FALL SLOWLY THROUGH SUNSET.

FOR TONIGHT: THE LARGE SCALE MEAN TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL/ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD
OVER COASTAL CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT... AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE FAR NE GULF AND TRACKS NNE ACROSS NE FL AND ALONG THE SE
COAST OVERNIGHT... TO A POSITION NEAR THE SRN NC COAST BY 12Z WED
(THE GFS IS A TAD FASTER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF). A SECONDARY INVERTED
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE DEVELOPING LOW THIS EVENING UP THROUGH
WRN NC... AND THIS WILL HELP FOSTER RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
WEST AND A BIT EARLIER THAN IT WOULD OTHERWISE WITH JUST A COASTAL
LOW IN PLAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SRN PARTS OF
CENTRAL NC STARTING SOON AFTER SUNSET BEFORE SPREADING NORTHWARD
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA... PERSISTING FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS RAIN WILL BE INSTIGATED BY THIS TROUGH AND THE
APPROACH OF THE LOW... IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEP MOISTENING AND
STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA DPVA (AS STRONG VORTICITY NEAR
EL PASO DIVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH AND TOWARD THE SRN
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT)... STRONG HEIGHT FALLS (~150 M)...
STRENGTHENING MOIST UPGLIDE (ESPECIALLY EAST HALF)... POTENTIAL
BANDED PRECIP IN THE WEST... AND INTENSIFYING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRENGTHENING JET FROM THE GULF
STATES TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LATEST MODELS AND UPSTREAM PRECIP
SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS TRENDS TOWARD CATEGORICAL PRECIP STARTING MID
TO LATE EVENING... AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS. LOW TEMPS
ARE TOUGH AS DEWPOINTS HAVE YET TO FALL IN THE EAST (STILL IN LOW
60S) BUT HAVE SLIPPED INTO THE 30S IN THE NW CWA. WILL LEAN TOWARD
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH SUPPORTS LOWS OF 39-48... CLOSE TO THE
EARLIER FORECAST. SURFACE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE NORTH WILL STEADILY
INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES OUR COAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...

FOR WEDNESDAY: AS THE ABOVE-NOTED FORCING FEATURES CONTINUE TO
PROMPT DEEP AND RAPID ASCENT WHILE DEEP MOISTURE (PW FROM 1" WEST TO
1.5" EAST) REMAINS IN PLACE... WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WED MORNING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING
IS LIKELY TO RANGE FROM THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
QUARTER... WITH A FEW HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES (WHERE MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONGEST) AND IN
THE FAR WEST BENEATH ANY BANDED PRECIP. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP
ENDING FROM SSW TO NNE FROM LATE WED MORNING THROUGH EARLY WED
AFTERNOON... LIKELY EXITING THE NE CWA PRIOR TO 3 PM AS THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM SWINGS NE OVER CENTRAL NC. THE CHANCE OF A MIX
WITH WET SNOW WED MORNING AS THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSES OVERHEAD
(POTENTIALLY CAUSING FOCUSED STRONGER LIFT THAT COULD FURTHER COOL
THE LOW LEVELS) REMAINS PLAUSIBLE... BUT IS UNLIKELY TO BE
WIDESPREAD OR GENERATE ANY IMPACT. THE GFS IS TOO WARM (ABOVE-
FREEZING SURFACE-BASED LAYER DEPTH NEAR 2K FT) AND HAS BEEN TRENDING
WARMER... AND WHILE THE NAM IS COOLER (WARM LAYER DEPTH LESS THAN
1000 FT)... THE SREF PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE VERY LOW CHANCES OF
ANYTHING BUT RAIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH A PURELY LIQUID FORECAST AT
THIS TIME... BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN BOTH MODEL DATA AND
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS. WE SHOULD HAVE A SHORT WINDOW OF PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SW WED... AND THIS WILL MAKE HIGH
TEMPS A CHALLENGE... AS ANY INSOLATION WILL CAUSE INITIALLY CHILLY
READINGS TO WARM UP QUICKLY. WILL STICK WITH HIGHS OF 45-51... WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE... HOWEVER THESE COULD BE TOO
COOL IF WE GET APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE.

FOR WED NIGHT: FOCUS THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE CLIPPER WAVE AND LOW
NOW OVER WRN ND... POISED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THEN TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NC/VA LATE WED NIGHT. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP SPREADING
EASTWARD OVER NRN NC... MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64... FORCED
BY STRONG DPVA WITH THE STRENGTHENING VORTICITY MAX... A SHOT OF
MODEST UPPER DIVERGENCE... AND STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ON THE
ORDER OF 7.0 C/KM. WILL RETAIN GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH
(ESPECIALLY NEAR THE VA BORDER) STARTING MID-LATE EVENING...
SPREADING POPS EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OVERNIGHT... WITH
LITTLE TO NO POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT... GIVEN
THAT FORCING WILL BE ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH WITH MODEST PRECIP WATER...
PLUS SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ARE RATHER SMALL AND
CONFINED JUST TO THE NW AND FAR NORTH. THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS
ALSO SUGGEST JUST A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN... ALTHOUGH IF WE DO ACHIEVE
SOME INSTABILITY AND FOCUSED ASCENT... WE COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX WITH
WET SNOW NEAR THE VA STATE LINE. AGAIN... THE VERY LOW PROBABILITY
PRECLUDES MENTIONING IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME... BUT WILL
MONITOR TRENDS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S... CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND INTO THE AREA LATE
WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC BY THE
WEEKEND. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE BY LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND... AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE... A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
NORTHWARD AND NUDGE INTO OUR AREA... WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP ANY
NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR THE
U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. A TRAILING DRY COLD FRONT HOWEVER... IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... IN
BACKDOOR FASHION ON MONDAY. EXPECT TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND
CHILLY UNTIL WE SEE A WARMING RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY. THUS...
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 40S ON FRIDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...

EXPECTED AVIATION CONDITIONS: POOR AT EASTERN TERMINALS... FAIR
EARLY THEN BECOMING POOR TONIGHT AT WESTERN TERMINALS. PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS: MVFR TO IFR CIGS PERSISTING
AT FAY/RDU/RWI AND SPREADING FROM SE TO NW AFFECTING ALL CENTRAL NC
TAF SITES STARTING 21Z-23Z AND PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. ALSO... MVFR/
IFR VSBYS IN RAIN ESPECIALLY RDU/RWI/FAY TONIGHT-WED... AND BRISK
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FROM NORTH TONIGHT 05Z-11Z AND FROM THE NW 11Z-
18Z WED AT ALL SITES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM THROUGH 00Z... THEN HIGH
AFTER 00Z.

A COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY ESE THROUGH CENTRAL NC WILL SETTLE OVER
COASTAL NC BY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER NRN FL AND TRACK
NE ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE SE AND CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
WED MORNING WHILE STRENGTHENING... THEN MOVE NORTH TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND WED AFTERNOON. STEADY RAIN WITH VFR OR BRIEFLY MVFR VSBYS
WILL PERSIST OVER AND NEAR FAY/RWI WITH MORE ON-AND-OFF RAIN AT RDU
AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN AT INT/GSO THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. STEADY
RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC SOUTH TO
NORTH FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL START TO
STRENGTHEN 04Z-06Z TONIGHT... RISING TO SUSTAINED 10-15 KTS
FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED... CIGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR
18Z-03Z... WITH DIMINISHING WINDS LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST-MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS SRN VA AND NRN NC
WED EVENING/NIGHT... BRINGING POTENTIAL IFR CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP
WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
RETURN AFTER 15Z THU... LASTING THROUGH SUN... AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251911
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
210 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL HOLD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINA COAST.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THEN... HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM TUESDAY...

REST OF TODAY: LIGHT TO MDT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER OUR SE AND
FAR SRN CWA EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL AREA... FUELED BY HIGH PW
VALUES (OVER 150% OF NORMAL) ALONG A TROPICAL-SOURCE MOISTURE
PLUME... WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA... AND WAVES OF ENHANCED UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG (160+ KT)
JET RUNNING FROM THE NRN GULF STATES TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.
WHILE THE BACK (NW) EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO WAVER
BACK AND FORTH ONE TO TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES... HI-RES NEAR TERM MODEL
OUTPUT (INCLUDING THE WRF-NMM/ARW AND HRRR) SUPPORTS HIGH RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA (SE OF HIGHWAY 1) FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH MORE PATCHY OR SPORADIC LIGHT RAIN A BIT
FURTHER INLAND... AND NEXT TO NOTHING OVER THE TRIAD. THE COLD
FRONT... NOW POSITIONED FROM JUST EAST OF ROCKY MOUNT TO SANFORD TO
JUST SE OF MONROE... CONTINUES TO PLOD ESE THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN NC...
CHARACTERIZED BY A WIND SHIFT TO NW AND DROP IN DEWPOINTS. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS BEFORE SETTLING AT
THE COAST BEFORE 00Z. TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR FALL SLOWLY THROUGH SUNSET.

FOR TONIGHT: THE LARGE SCALE MEAN TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL/ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD
OVER COASTAL CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT... AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE FAR NE GULF AND TRACKS NNE ACROSS NE FL AND ALONG THE SE
COAST OVERNIGHT... TO A POSITION NEAR THE SRN NC COAST BY 12Z WED
(THE GFS IS A TAD FASTER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF). A SECONDARY INVERTED
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE DEVELOPING LOW THIS EVENING UP THROUGH
WRN NC... AND THIS WILL HELP FOSTER RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
WEST AND A BIT EARLIER THAN IT WOULD OTHERWISE WITH JUST A COASTAL
LOW IN PLAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SRN PARTS OF
CENTRAL NC STARTING SOON AFTER SUNSET BEFORE SPREADING NORTHWARD
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA... PERSISTING FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS RAIN WILL BE INSTIGATED BY THIS TROUGH AND THE
APPROACH OF THE LOW... IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEP MOISTENING AND
STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA DPVA (AS STRONG VORTICITY NEAR
EL PASO DIVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH AND TOWARD THE SRN
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT)... STRONG HEIGHT FALLS (~150 M)...
STRENGTHENING MOIST UPGLIDE (ESPECIALLY EAST HALF)... POTENTIAL
BANDED PRECIP IN THE WEST... AND INTENSIFYING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRENGTHENING JET FROM THE GULF
STATES TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LATEST MODELS AND UPSTREAM PRECIP
SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS TRENDS TOWARD CATEGORICAL PRECIP STARTING MID
TO LATE EVENING... AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS. LOW TEMPS
ARE TOUGH AS DEWPOINTS HAVE YET TO FALL IN THE EAST (STILL IN LOW
60S) BUT HAVE SLIPPED INTO THE 30S IN THE NW CWA. WILL LEAN TOWARD
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH SUPPORTS LOWS OF 39-48... CLOSE TO THE
EARLIER FORECAST. SURFACE WINDS MAINLY FROM THE NORTH WILL STEADILY
INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES OUR COAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...

FOR WEDNESDAY: AS THE ABOVE-NOTED FORCING FEATURES CONTINUE TO
PROMPT DEEP AND RAPID ASCENT WHILE DEEP MOISTURE (PW FROM 1" WEST TO
1.5" EAST) REMAINS IN PLACE... WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WED MORNING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING
IS LIKELY TO RANGE FROM THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
QUARTER... WITH A FEW HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES (WHERE MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE STRONGEST) AND IN
THE FAR WEST BENEATH ANY BANDED PRECIP. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP
ENDING FROM SSW TO NNE FROM LATE WED MORNING THROUGH EARLY WED
AFTERNOON... LIKELY EXITING THE NE CWA PRIOR TO 3 PM AS THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM SWINGS NE OVER CENTRAL NC. THE CHANCE OF A MIX
WITH WET SNOW WED MORNING AS THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSES OVERHEAD
(POTENTIALLY CAUSING FOCUSED STRONGER LIFT THAT COULD FURTHER COOL
THE LOW LEVELS) REMAINS PLAUSIBLE... BUT IS UNLIKELY TO BE
WIDESPREAD OR GENERATE ANY IMPACT. THE GFS IS TOO WARM (ABOVE-
FREEZING SURFACE-BASED LAYER DEPTH NEAR 2K FT) AND HAS BEEN TRENDING
WARMER... AND WHILE THE NAM IS COOLER (WARM LAYER DEPTH LESS THAN
1000 FT)... THE SREF PTYPE PLUMES INDICATE VERY LOW CHANCES OF
ANYTHING BUT RAIN. WILL CONTINUE WITH A PURELY LIQUID FORECAST AT
THIS TIME... BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS IN BOTH MODEL DATA AND
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS. WE SHOULD HAVE A SHORT WINDOW OF PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SW WED... AND THIS WILL MAKE HIGH
TEMPS A CHALLENGE... AS ANY INSOLATION WILL CAUSE INITIALLY CHILLY
READINGS TO WARM UP QUICKLY. WILL STICK WITH HIGHS OF 45-51... WHICH
IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE... HOWEVER THESE COULD BE TOO
COOL IF WE GET APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE.

FOR WED NIGHT: FOCUS THEN QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE CLIPPER WAVE AND LOW
NOW OVER WRN ND... POISED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THEN TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NC/VA LATE WED NIGHT. MODELS AGREE ON PRECIP SPREADING
EASTWARD OVER NRN NC... MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64... FORCED
BY STRONG DPVA WITH THE STRENGTHENING VORTICITY MAX... A SHOT OF
MODEST UPPER DIVERGENCE... AND STEEP 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES ON THE
ORDER OF 7.0 C/KM. WILL RETAIN GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH
(ESPECIALLY NEAR THE VA BORDER) STARTING MID-LATE EVENING...
SPREADING POPS EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OVERNIGHT... WITH
LITTLE TO NO POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT... GIVEN
THAT FORCING WILL BE ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH WITH MODEST PRECIP WATER...
PLUS SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL ARE RATHER SMALL AND
CONFINED JUST TO THE NW AND FAR NORTH. THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS
ALSO SUGGEST JUST A CHILLY LIGHT RAIN... ALTHOUGH IF WE DO ACHIEVE
SOME INSTABILITY AND FOCUSED ASCENT... WE COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX WITH
WET SNOW NEAR THE VA STATE LINE. AGAIN... THE VERY LOW PROBABILITY
PRECLUDES MENTIONING IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME... BUT WILL
MONITOR TRENDS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S... CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND INTO THE AREA LATE
WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC BY THE
WEEKEND. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE BY LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND... AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE... A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
NORTHWARD AND NUDGE INTO OUR AREA... WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP ANY
NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR THE
U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. A TRAILING DRY COLD FRONT HOWEVER... IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... IN
BACKDOOR FASHION ON MONDAY. EXPECT TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND
CHILLY UNTIL WE SEE A WARMING RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY. THUS...
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 40S ON FRIDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...

EXPECTED AVIATION CONDITIONS: POOR AT EASTERN TERMINALS... FAIR
EARLY THEN BECOMING POOR TONIGHT AT WESTERN TERMINALS. PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS: MVFR TO IFR CIGS PERSISTING
AT FAY/RDU/RWI AND SPREADING FROM SE TO NW AFFECTING ALL CENTRAL NC
TAF SITES STARTING 21Z-23Z AND PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. ALSO... MVFR/
IFR VSBYS IN RAIN ESPECIALLY RDU/RWI/FAY TONIGHT-WED... AND BRISK
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FROM NORTH TONIGHT 05Z-11Z AND FROM THE NW 11Z-
18Z WED AT ALL SITES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM THROUGH 00Z... THEN HIGH
AFTER 00Z.

A COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY ESE THROUGH CENTRAL NC WILL SETTLE OVER
COASTAL NC BY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER NRN FL AND TRACK
NE ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE SE AND CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
WED MORNING WHILE STRENGTHENING... THEN MOVE NORTH TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND WED AFTERNOON. STEADY RAIN WITH VFR OR BRIEFLY MVFR VSBYS
WILL PERSIST OVER AND NEAR FAY/RWI WITH MORE ON-AND-OFF RAIN AT RDU
AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN AT INT/GSO THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. STEADY
RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC SOUTH TO
NORTH FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL START TO
STRENGTHEN 04Z-06Z TONIGHT... RISING TO SUSTAINED 10-15 KTS
FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED... CIGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR
18Z-03Z... WITH DIMINISHING WINDS LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST-MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS SRN VA AND NRN NC
WED EVENING/NIGHT... BRINGING POTENTIAL IFR CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP
WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
RETURN AFTER 15Z THU... LASTING THROUGH SUN... AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 251820
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
120 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL HOLD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINA COAST.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THEN... HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM TUESDAY...

REST OF TODAY: LIGHT TO MDT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER OUR SE AND
FAR SRN CWA EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL AREA... FUELED BY HIGH PW
VALUES (OVER 150% OF NORMAL) ALONG A TROPICAL-SOURCE MOISTURE
PLUME... WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA... AND WAVES OF ENHANCED UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG (160+ KT)
JET RUNNING FROM THE NRN GULF STATES TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.
WHILE THE BACK (NW) EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO WAVER
BACK AND FORTH ONE TO TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES... HI-RES NEAR TERM MODEL
OUTPUT (INCLUDING THE WRF-NMM/ARW AND HRRR) SUPPORTS HIGH RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA (SE OF HIGHWAY 1) FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH MORE PATCHY OR SPORADIC LIGHT RAIN A BIT
FURTHER INLAND... AND NEXT TO NOTHING OVER THE TRIAD. THE COLD
FRONT... NOW POSITIONED FROM JUST EAST OF ROCKY MOUNT TO SANFORD TO
JUST SE OF MONROE... CONTINUES TO PLOD ESE THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN NC...
CHARACTERIZED BY A WIND SHIFT TO NW AND DROP IN DEWPOINTS. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS BEFORE SETTLING AT
THE COAST BEFORE 00Z. TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR FALL SLOWLY THROUGH SUNSET.

FOR TONIGHT: THE LARGE SCALE MEAN TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL/ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD
OVER COASTAL CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT... AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE FAR NE GULF AND TRACKS NNE ACROSS NE FL AND ALONG THE SE
COAST OVERNIGHT... TO A POSITION NEAR THE SRN NC COAST BY 12Z WED
(THE GFS IS A TAD FASTER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF). A SECONDARY INVERTED
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE DEVELOPING LOW THIS EVENING UP THROUGH
WRN NC... AND THIS WILL HELP FOSTER RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
WEST AND A BIT EARLIER THAN IT WOULD OTHERWISE WITH JUST A COASTAL
LOW IN PLAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SRN PARTS OF
CENTRAL NC STARTING SOON AFTER SUNSET BEFORE SPREADING NORTHWARD
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA... PERSISTING FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS RAIN WILL BE INSTIGATED BY THIS TROUGH AND THE
APPROACH OF THE LOW... IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEP MOISTENING AND
STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA DPVA (AS STRONG VORTICITY NEAR
EL PASO DIVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH AND TOWARD THE SRN
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT)... STRONG HEIGHT FALLS (~150 M)...
STRENGTHENING MOIST UPGLIDE (ESPECIALLY EAST HALF)... POTENTIAL
BANDED PRECIP IN THE WEST... AND INTENSIFYING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRENGTHENING JET FROM THE GULF
STATES TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LATEST MODELS AND UPSTREAM PRECIP
SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS TRENDS TOWARD CATEGORICAL PRECIP STARTING MID
TO LATE EVENING... AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS. LOW TEMPS
ARE TOUGH AS DEWPOINTS HAVE YET TO FALL IN THE EAST (STILL IN LOW
60S) BUT HAVE SLIPPED INTO THE 30S IN THE NW CWA. WILL LEAN TOWARD
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH SUPPORTS LOWS OF 39-48... CLOSE TO THE
EARLIER FORECAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE SW LATE
MORNING-AFTERNOON AS THE SFC-850MB LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
RESULTANT NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL AID TO
DIMINISH RAIN AND GRADUALLY DECREASE CLOUD COVERAGE. CLEARING WILL
BE TEMPORARY AS FAST APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE
AN UPTICK IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO SUNSET.
MAX TEMPS WILL JUST BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS
LOWS DUE TO RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE. MAX TEMPS MID 40S NORTH TO
AROUND 50 SE. -WSS

S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD WITH THE CORE OF THE
VORT MAX... NOW TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A PREFERRED TRACK FOR
PRECIP WOULD BE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... STILL
EXPECT WE MAY SEE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
NOW... WEDNESDAY NIGHT/INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH A LACK OF ANY
GOOD COLD AIR IN PLACE THOUGH... SURFACE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING... WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SURFACE
WETBULB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING EVEN... GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S AT THE
WORST WHEN THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS. GIVEN THIS ALONG WITH THE
LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMO IS FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING THE CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW IS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER... GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE AND RESULTANT STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... THINK WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT WITH THE MOST INTENSE PRECIP. THUS... ANY
SNOWFALL WOULD BE DRIVEN BY INTENSITY/RATES. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND RECENT WARM TEMPS DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS
FROM ANY SNOW. FOR GO WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE U.S. 64 CORRIDOR...
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA... ANY
PRECIP TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... THANKS
TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPS
ON THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE HOW MUCH IF ANY PRECIP WE GET AND HOW
QUICKLY WE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS/SCATTERING CLOUDS AND SEEING SOME SUN.
HAVE TRENDED THE HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE THOUGH GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S FAR SOUTH. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND INTO THE AREA LATE
WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC BY THE
WEEKEND. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE BY LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND... AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE... A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
NORTHWARD AND NUDGE INTO OUR AREA... WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP ANY
NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR THE
U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. A TRAILING DRY COLD FRONT HOWEVER... IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... IN
BACKDOOR FASHION ON MONDAY. EXPECT TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND
CHILLY UNTIL WE SEE A WARMING RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY. THUS...
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 40S ON FRIDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...

EXPECTED AVIATION CONDITIONS: POOR AT EASTERN TERMINALS... FAIR
EARLY THEN BECOMING POOR TONIGHT AT WESTERN TERMINALS. PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS: MVFR TO IFR CIGS PERSISTING
AT FAY/RDU/RWI AND SPREADING FROM SE TO NW AFFECTING ALL CENTRAL NC
TAF SITES STARTING 21Z-23Z AND PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. ALSO... MVFR/
IFR VSBYS IN RAIN ESPECIALLY RDU/RWI/FAY TONIGHT-WED... AND BRISK
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FROM NORTH TONIGHT 05Z-11Z AND FROM THE NW 11Z-
18Z WED AT ALL SITES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM THROUGH 00Z... THEN HIGH
AFTER 00Z.

A COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY ESE THROUGH CENTRAL NC WILL SETTLE OVER
COASTAL NC BY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER NRN FL AND TRACK
NE ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE SE AND CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
WED MORNING WHILE STRENGTHENING... THEN MOVE NORTH TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND WED AFTERNOON. STEADY RAIN WITH VFR OR BRIEFLY MVFR VSBYS
WILL PERSIST OVER AND NEAR FAY/RWI WITH MORE ON-AND-OFF RAIN AT RDU
AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN AT INT/GSO THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. STEADY
RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC SOUTH TO
NORTH FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL START TO
STRENGTHEN 04Z-06Z TONIGHT... RISING TO SUSTAINED 10-15 KTS
FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED... CIGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR
18Z-03Z... WITH DIMINISHING WINDS LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST-MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS SRN VA AND NRN NC
WED EVENING/NIGHT... BRINGING POTENTIAL IFR CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP
WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
RETURN AFTER 15Z THU... LASTING THROUGH SUN... AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251820
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
120 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL HOLD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINA COAST.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THEN... HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 PM TUESDAY...

REST OF TODAY: LIGHT TO MDT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER OUR SE AND
FAR SRN CWA EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL AREA... FUELED BY HIGH PW
VALUES (OVER 150% OF NORMAL) ALONG A TROPICAL-SOURCE MOISTURE
PLUME... WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA... AND WAVES OF ENHANCED UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG (160+ KT)
JET RUNNING FROM THE NRN GULF STATES TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.
WHILE THE BACK (NW) EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO WAVER
BACK AND FORTH ONE TO TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES... HI-RES NEAR TERM MODEL
OUTPUT (INCLUDING THE WRF-NMM/ARW AND HRRR) SUPPORTS HIGH RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA (SE OF HIGHWAY 1) FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH MORE PATCHY OR SPORADIC LIGHT RAIN A BIT
FURTHER INLAND... AND NEXT TO NOTHING OVER THE TRIAD. THE COLD
FRONT... NOW POSITIONED FROM JUST EAST OF ROCKY MOUNT TO SANFORD TO
JUST SE OF MONROE... CONTINUES TO PLOD ESE THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN NC...
CHARACTERIZED BY A WIND SHIFT TO NW AND DROP IN DEWPOINTS. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS BEFORE SETTLING AT
THE COAST BEFORE 00Z. TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR FALL SLOWLY THROUGH SUNSET.

FOR TONIGHT: THE LARGE SCALE MEAN TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL/ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD
OVER COASTAL CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT... AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS
OVER THE FAR NE GULF AND TRACKS NNE ACROSS NE FL AND ALONG THE SE
COAST OVERNIGHT... TO A POSITION NEAR THE SRN NC COAST BY 12Z WED
(THE GFS IS A TAD FASTER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF). A SECONDARY INVERTED
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE DEVELOPING LOW THIS EVENING UP THROUGH
WRN NC... AND THIS WILL HELP FOSTER RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
WEST AND A BIT EARLIER THAN IT WOULD OTHERWISE WITH JUST A COASTAL
LOW IN PLAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SRN PARTS OF
CENTRAL NC STARTING SOON AFTER SUNSET BEFORE SPREADING NORTHWARD
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA... PERSISTING FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS RAIN WILL BE INSTIGATED BY THIS TROUGH AND THE
APPROACH OF THE LOW... IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEP MOISTENING AND
STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA DPVA (AS STRONG VORTICITY NEAR
EL PASO DIVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH AND TOWARD THE SRN
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT)... STRONG HEIGHT FALLS (~150 M)...
STRENGTHENING MOIST UPGLIDE (ESPECIALLY EAST HALF)... POTENTIAL
BANDED PRECIP IN THE WEST... AND INTENSIFYING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRENGTHENING JET FROM THE GULF
STATES TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. LATEST MODELS AND UPSTREAM PRECIP
SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS TRENDS TOWARD CATEGORICAL PRECIP STARTING MID
TO LATE EVENING... AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS. LOW TEMPS
ARE TOUGH AS DEWPOINTS HAVE YET TO FALL IN THE EAST (STILL IN LOW
60S) BUT HAVE SLIPPED INTO THE 30S IN THE NW CWA. WILL LEAN TOWARD
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH SUPPORTS LOWS OF 39-48... CLOSE TO THE
EARLIER FORECAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE SW LATE
MORNING-AFTERNOON AS THE SFC-850MB LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
RESULTANT NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL AID TO
DIMINISH RAIN AND GRADUALLY DECREASE CLOUD COVERAGE. CLEARING WILL
BE TEMPORARY AS FAST APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE
AN UPTICK IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO SUNSET.
MAX TEMPS WILL JUST BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS
LOWS DUE TO RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE. MAX TEMPS MID 40S NORTH TO
AROUND 50 SE. -WSS

S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD WITH THE CORE OF THE
VORT MAX... NOW TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A PREFERRED TRACK FOR
PRECIP WOULD BE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... STILL
EXPECT WE MAY SEE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
NOW... WEDNESDAY NIGHT/INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH A LACK OF ANY
GOOD COLD AIR IN PLACE THOUGH... SURFACE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING... WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SURFACE
WETBULB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING EVEN... GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S AT THE
WORST WHEN THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS. GIVEN THIS ALONG WITH THE
LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMO IS FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING THE CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW IS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER... GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE AND RESULTANT STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... THINK WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT WITH THE MOST INTENSE PRECIP. THUS... ANY
SNOWFALL WOULD BE DRIVEN BY INTENSITY/RATES. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND RECENT WARM TEMPS DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS
FROM ANY SNOW. FOR GO WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE U.S. 64 CORRIDOR...
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA... ANY
PRECIP TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... THANKS
TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPS
ON THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE HOW MUCH IF ANY PRECIP WE GET AND HOW
QUICKLY WE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS/SCATTERING CLOUDS AND SEEING SOME SUN.
HAVE TRENDED THE HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE THOUGH GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S FAR SOUTH. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND INTO THE AREA LATE
WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC BY THE
WEEKEND. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE BY LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND... AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE... A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
NORTHWARD AND NUDGE INTO OUR AREA... WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP ANY
NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR THE
U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. A TRAILING DRY COLD FRONT HOWEVER... IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... IN
BACKDOOR FASHION ON MONDAY. EXPECT TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND
CHILLY UNTIL WE SEE A WARMING RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY. THUS...
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 40S ON FRIDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...

EXPECTED AVIATION CONDITIONS: POOR AT EASTERN TERMINALS... FAIR
EARLY THEN BECOMING POOR TONIGHT AT WESTERN TERMINALS. PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS: MVFR TO IFR CIGS PERSISTING
AT FAY/RDU/RWI AND SPREADING FROM SE TO NW AFFECTING ALL CENTRAL NC
TAF SITES STARTING 21Z-23Z AND PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. ALSO... MVFR/
IFR VSBYS IN RAIN ESPECIALLY RDU/RWI/FAY TONIGHT-WED... AND BRISK
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FROM NORTH TONIGHT 05Z-11Z AND FROM THE NW 11Z-
18Z WED AT ALL SITES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM THROUGH 00Z... THEN HIGH
AFTER 00Z.

A COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY ESE THROUGH CENTRAL NC WILL SETTLE OVER
COASTAL NC BY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER NRN FL AND TRACK
NE ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE SE AND CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
WED MORNING WHILE STRENGTHENING... THEN MOVE NORTH TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND WED AFTERNOON. STEADY RAIN WITH VFR OR BRIEFLY MVFR VSBYS
WILL PERSIST OVER AND NEAR FAY/RWI WITH MORE ON-AND-OFF RAIN AT RDU
AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN AT INT/GSO THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. STEADY
RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC SOUTH TO
NORTH FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL START TO
STRENGTHEN 04Z-06Z TONIGHT... RISING TO SUSTAINED 10-15 KTS
FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED... CIGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR
18Z-03Z... WITH DIMINISHING WINDS LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST-MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS SRN VA AND NRN NC
WED EVENING/NIGHT... BRINGING POTENTIAL IFR CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP
WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
RETURN AFTER 15Z THU... LASTING THROUGH SUN... AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 251701
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1200 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ALONG THE
CAROLINA AND MIDATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM THANKSGIVING DAY AND REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 955 AM TUESDAY...

REST OF TODAY: LIGHT TO MDT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER OUR SE CWA
EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL AREA THIS MORNING... FUELED BY HIGH PW
VALUES (OVER 150% OF NORMAL) ALONG A TROPICAL-SOURCE MOISTURE
PLUME... WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA... AND WAVES OF ENHANCED UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG (160+ KT)
JET RUNNING FROM THE NRN GULF STATES TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. HI-
RES NEAR TERM MODEL OUTPUT AS WELL AS EXTRAPOLATION OF UPSTREAM
ECHOES SUGGESTS THAT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN SHIELD WILL
BRIEFLY NUDGE EASTWARD AND HOLD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... RESULTING
IN A RELATIVE LULL IN THE TRIANGLE AREA... ALTHOUGH ISOLATED PATCHES
OF VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT... WHILE
STEADY RAIN WILL HOLD OVER ERN CUMBERLAND CO THROUGH SAMPSON AND
WAYNE COUNTIES. BUT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON... WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
WESTWARD BULGING OF THE RAIN SHIELD... ALREADY SEEN MOVING INTO EAST-
CENTRAL GA... AND CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS OF POPS BACK UP TO
CATEGORICAL FROM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON LOOKS
VERY GOOD. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PLOD ESE THROUGH CENTRAL
NC... HAVING JUST PASSED THROUGH WARRENTON / SILER CITY /
ALBEMARLE... CHARACTERIZED BY A WIND SHIFT TO NW AND DROP IN
DEWPOINTS. GIVEN THE THICK CLOUD SHIELD AND IMMINENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION... TEMPS SHOULD MOVE UP JUST A FEW DEGREES FROM THE THEIR
CURRENT READINGS... AND IN FACT THE WRN CWA MAY HAVE ALREADY SEEN
ITS DAYTIME HIGH. EXPECT AREAWIDE HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOW 60S... BUT
WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING READINGS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. -GIH

TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING/LIFTING E-NE
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL INDUCE A SURFACE WAVE TO FORM ON THE FRONT
THIS EVENING. THIS STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
ALOFT...A 805MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY NEWD UP ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO AID
TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LIFT WILL BE RATHER DEEP THROUGH
THE COLUMN THANKS TO 160+KT JET LIFTING NE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. FINALLY...ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE MOIST FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER
THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. THESE COMBINED VALUES SUGGEST
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT MODERATE-BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
VICINITY OF TEH 850MB LOW TRACK (I-95). PLAN TO HAVE CATEGORICAL
POPS MOST LOCATIONS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT VARYING FROM
AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE NW PIEDMONT TO MORE THAN AN INCH ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL RESULT IN A NLY FLOW
OVER CENTRAL NC. THS FLOW WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO OUR
REGION...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE SW LATE
MORNING-AFTERNOON AS THE SFC-850MB LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
RESULTANT NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL AID TO
DIMINISH RAIN AND GRADUALLY DECREASE CLOUD COVERAGE. CLEARING WILL BE
TEMPORARY AS FAST APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE AN
UPTICK IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO SUNSET. MAX
TEMPS WILL JUST BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS LOWS
DUE TO RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE. MAX TEMPS MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50
SE. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD WITH THE CORE OF THE
VORT MAX... NOW TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A PREFERRED TRACK FOR
PRECIP WOULD BE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... STILL
EXPECT WE MAY SEE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
NOW... WEDNESDAY NIGHT/INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH A LACK OF ANY
GOOD COLD AIR IN PLACE THOUGH... SURFACE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING... WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SURFACE
WETBULB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING EVEN... GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S AT THE
WORST WHEN THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS. GIVEN THIS ALONG WITH THE
LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMO IS FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING THE CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW IS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER... GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE AND RESULTANT STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... THINK WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT WITH THE MOST INTENSE PRECIP. THUS... ANY
SNOWFALL WOULD BE DRIVEN BY INTENSITY/RATES. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND RECENT WARM TEMPS DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS
FROM ANY SNOW. FOR GO WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE U.S. 64 CORRIDOR...
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA... ANY
PRECIP TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... THANKS
TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPS
ON THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE HOW MUCH IF ANY PRECIP WE GET AND HOW
QUICKLY WE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS/SCATTERING CLOUDS AND SEEING SOME SUN.
HAVE TRENDED THE HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE THOUGH GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND INTO THE AREA LATE
WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC BY THE
WEEKEND. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE BY LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND... AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE... A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
NORTHWARD AND NUDGE INTO OUR AREA... WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP ANY
NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR THE
U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. A TRAILING DRY COLD FRONT HOWEVER... IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... IN
BACKDOOR FASHION ON MONDAY. EXPECT TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND
CHILLY UNTIL WE SEE A WARMING RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY. THUS...
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 40S ON FRIDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...

EXPECTED AVIATION CONDITIONS: POOR AT EASTERN TERMINALS... FAIR
EARLY THEN BECOMING POOR TONIGHT AT WESTERN TERMINALS. PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS: MVFR TO IFR CIGS PERSISTING
AT FAY/RDU/RWI AND SPREADING FROM SE TO NW AFFECTING ALL CENTRAL NC
TAF SITES STARTING 21Z-23Z AND PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. ALSO... MVFR/
IFR VSBYS IN RAIN ESPECIALLY RDU/RWI/FAY TONIGHT-WED... AND BRISK
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FROM NORTH TONIGHT 05Z-11Z AND FROM THE NW 11Z-
18Z WED AT ALL SITES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM THROUGH 00Z... THEN HIGH
AFTER 00Z.

A COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY ESE THROUGH CENTRAL NC WILL SETTLE OVER
COASTAL NC BY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER NRN FL AND TRACK
NE ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE SE AND CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
WED MORNING WHILE STRENGTHENING... THEN MOVE NORTH TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND WED AFTERNOON. STEADY RAIN WITH VFR OR BRIEFLY MVFR VSBYS
WILL PERSIST OVER AND NEAR FAY/RWI WITH MORE ON-AND-OFF RAIN AT RDU
AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN AT INT/GSO THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. STEADY
RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC SOUTH TO
NORTH FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL START TO
STRENGTHEN 04Z-06Z TONIGHT... RISING TO SUSTAINED 10-15 KTS
FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED... CIGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR
18Z-03Z... WITH DIMINISHING WINDS LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST-MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS SRN VA AND NRN NC
WED EVENING/NIGHT... BRINGING POTENTIAL IFR CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP
WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
RETURN AFTER 15Z THU... LASTING THROUGH SUN... AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 251701
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1200 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ALONG THE
CAROLINA AND MIDATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM THANKSGIVING DAY AND REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 955 AM TUESDAY...

REST OF TODAY: LIGHT TO MDT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER OUR SE CWA
EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL AREA THIS MORNING... FUELED BY HIGH PW
VALUES (OVER 150% OF NORMAL) ALONG A TROPICAL-SOURCE MOISTURE
PLUME... WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA... AND WAVES OF ENHANCED UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG (160+ KT)
JET RUNNING FROM THE NRN GULF STATES TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. HI-
RES NEAR TERM MODEL OUTPUT AS WELL AS EXTRAPOLATION OF UPSTREAM
ECHOES SUGGESTS THAT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN SHIELD WILL
BRIEFLY NUDGE EASTWARD AND HOLD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... RESULTING
IN A RELATIVE LULL IN THE TRIANGLE AREA... ALTHOUGH ISOLATED PATCHES
OF VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT... WHILE
STEADY RAIN WILL HOLD OVER ERN CUMBERLAND CO THROUGH SAMPSON AND
WAYNE COUNTIES. BUT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON... WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
WESTWARD BULGING OF THE RAIN SHIELD... ALREADY SEEN MOVING INTO EAST-
CENTRAL GA... AND CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS OF POPS BACK UP TO
CATEGORICAL FROM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON LOOKS
VERY GOOD. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PLOD ESE THROUGH CENTRAL
NC... HAVING JUST PASSED THROUGH WARRENTON / SILER CITY /
ALBEMARLE... CHARACTERIZED BY A WIND SHIFT TO NW AND DROP IN
DEWPOINTS. GIVEN THE THICK CLOUD SHIELD AND IMMINENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION... TEMPS SHOULD MOVE UP JUST A FEW DEGREES FROM THE THEIR
CURRENT READINGS... AND IN FACT THE WRN CWA MAY HAVE ALREADY SEEN
ITS DAYTIME HIGH. EXPECT AREAWIDE HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOW 60S... BUT
WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING READINGS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. -GIH

TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING/LIFTING E-NE
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL INDUCE A SURFACE WAVE TO FORM ON THE FRONT
THIS EVENING. THIS STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
ALOFT...A 805MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY NEWD UP ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO AID
TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LIFT WILL BE RATHER DEEP THROUGH
THE COLUMN THANKS TO 160+KT JET LIFTING NE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. FINALLY...ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE MOIST FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER
THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. THESE COMBINED VALUES SUGGEST
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT MODERATE-BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
VICINITY OF TEH 850MB LOW TRACK (I-95). PLAN TO HAVE CATEGORICAL
POPS MOST LOCATIONS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT VARYING FROM
AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE NW PIEDMONT TO MORE THAN AN INCH ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL RESULT IN A NLY FLOW
OVER CENTRAL NC. THS FLOW WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO OUR
REGION...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE SW LATE
MORNING-AFTERNOON AS THE SFC-850MB LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
RESULTANT NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL AID TO
DIMINISH RAIN AND GRADUALLY DECREASE CLOUD COVERAGE. CLEARING WILL BE
TEMPORARY AS FAST APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE AN
UPTICK IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO SUNSET. MAX
TEMPS WILL JUST BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS LOWS
DUE TO RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE. MAX TEMPS MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50
SE. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD WITH THE CORE OF THE
VORT MAX... NOW TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A PREFERRED TRACK FOR
PRECIP WOULD BE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... STILL
EXPECT WE MAY SEE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
NOW... WEDNESDAY NIGHT/INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH A LACK OF ANY
GOOD COLD AIR IN PLACE THOUGH... SURFACE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING... WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SURFACE
WETBULB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING EVEN... GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S AT THE
WORST WHEN THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS. GIVEN THIS ALONG WITH THE
LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMO IS FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING THE CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW IS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER... GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE AND RESULTANT STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... THINK WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT WITH THE MOST INTENSE PRECIP. THUS... ANY
SNOWFALL WOULD BE DRIVEN BY INTENSITY/RATES. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND RECENT WARM TEMPS DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS
FROM ANY SNOW. FOR GO WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE U.S. 64 CORRIDOR...
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA... ANY
PRECIP TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... THANKS
TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPS
ON THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE HOW MUCH IF ANY PRECIP WE GET AND HOW
QUICKLY WE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS/SCATTERING CLOUDS AND SEEING SOME SUN.
HAVE TRENDED THE HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE THOUGH GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND INTO THE AREA LATE
WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC BY THE
WEEKEND. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE BY LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND... AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE... A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
NORTHWARD AND NUDGE INTO OUR AREA... WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP ANY
NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR THE
U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. A TRAILING DRY COLD FRONT HOWEVER... IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... IN
BACKDOOR FASHION ON MONDAY. EXPECT TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND
CHILLY UNTIL WE SEE A WARMING RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY. THUS...
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 40S ON FRIDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM TUESDAY...

EXPECTED AVIATION CONDITIONS: POOR AT EASTERN TERMINALS... FAIR
EARLY THEN BECOMING POOR TONIGHT AT WESTERN TERMINALS. PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS: MVFR TO IFR CIGS PERSISTING
AT FAY/RDU/RWI AND SPREADING FROM SE TO NW AFFECTING ALL CENTRAL NC
TAF SITES STARTING 21Z-23Z AND PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. ALSO... MVFR/
IFR VSBYS IN RAIN ESPECIALLY RDU/RWI/FAY TONIGHT-WED... AND BRISK
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FROM NORTH TONIGHT 05Z-11Z AND FROM THE NW 11Z-
18Z WED AT ALL SITES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM THROUGH 00Z... THEN HIGH
AFTER 00Z.

A COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY ESE THROUGH CENTRAL NC WILL SETTLE OVER
COASTAL NC BY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER NRN FL AND TRACK
NE ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE SE AND CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
WED MORNING WHILE STRENGTHENING... THEN MOVE NORTH TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND WED AFTERNOON. STEADY RAIN WITH VFR OR BRIEFLY MVFR VSBYS
WILL PERSIST OVER AND NEAR FAY/RWI WITH MORE ON-AND-OFF RAIN AT RDU
AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN AT INT/GSO THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. STEADY
RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBYS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC SOUTH TO
NORTH FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL START TO
STRENGTHEN 04Z-06Z TONIGHT... RISING TO SUSTAINED 10-15 KTS
FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED... CIGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR
18Z-03Z... WITH DIMINISHING WINDS LIKELY. ANOTHER FAST-MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS SRN VA AND NRN NC
WED EVENING/NIGHT... BRINGING POTENTIAL IFR CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP
WED NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
RETURN AFTER 15Z THU... LASTING THROUGH SUN... AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251457
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
955 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ALONG THE
CAROLINA AND MIDATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM THANKSGIVING DAY AND REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 955 AM TUESDAY...

REST OF TODAY: LIGHT TO MDT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER OUR SE CWA
EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL AREA THIS MORNING... FUELED BY HIGH PW
VALUES (OVER 150% OF NORMAL) ALONG A TROPICAL-SOURCE MOISTURE
PLUME... WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA... AND WAVES OF ENHANCED UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG (160+ KT)
JET RUNNING FROM THE NRN GULF STATES TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. HI-
RES NEAR TERM MODEL OUTPUT AS WELL AS EXTRAPOLATION OF UPSTREAM
ECHOES SUGGESTS THAT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN SHIELD WILL
BRIEFLY NUDGE EASTWARD AND HOLD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... RESULTING
IN A RELATIVE LULL IN THE TRIANGLE AREA... ALTHOUGH ISOLATED PATCHES
OF VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT... WHILE
STEADY RAIN WILL HOLD OVER ERN CUMBERLAND CO THROUGH SAMPSON AND
WAYNE COUNTIES. BUT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON... WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
WESTWARD BULGING OF THE RAIN SHIELD... ALREADY SEEN MOVING INTO EAST-
CENTRAL GA... AND CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS OF POPS BACK UP TO
CATEGORICAL FROM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON LOOKS
VERY GOOD. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PLOD ESE THROUGH CENTRAL
NC... HAVING JUST PASSED THROUGH WARRENTON / SILER CITY /
ALBEMARLE... CHARACTERIZED BY A WIND SHIFT TO NW AND DROP IN
DEWPOINTS. GIVEN THE THICK CLOUD SHIELD AND IMMINENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION... TEMPS SHOULD MOVE UP JUST A FEW DEGREES FROM THE THEIR
CURRENT READINGS... AND IN FACT THE WRN CWA MAY HAVE ALREADY SEEN
ITS DAYTIME HIGH. EXPECT AREAWIDE HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOW 60S... BUT
WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING READINGS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. -GIH

TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING/LIFTING E-NE
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL INDUCE A SURFACE WAVE TO FORM ON THE FRONT
THIS EVENING. THIS STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
ALOFT...A 805MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY NEWD UP ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO AID
TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LIFT WILL BE RATHER DEEP THROUGH
THE COLUMN THANKS TO 160+KT JET LIFTING NE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. FINALLY...ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE MOIST FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER
THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. THESE COMBINED VALUES SUGGEST
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT MODERATE-BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
VICINITY OF TEH 850MB LOW TRACK (I-95). PLAN TO HAVE CATEGORICAL
POPS MOST LOCATIONS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT VARYING FROM
AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE NW PIEDMONT TO MORE THAN AN INCH ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL RESULT IN A NLY FLOW
OVER CENTRAL NC. THS FLOW WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO OUR
REGION...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE SW LATE
MORNING-AFTERNOON AS THE SFC-850MB LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
RESULTANT NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL AID TO
DIMINISH RAIN AND GRADUALLY DECREASE CLOUD COVERAGE. CLEARING WILL BE
TEMPORARY AS FAST APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE AN
UPTICK IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO SUNSET. MAX
TEMPS WILL JUST BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS LOWS
DUE TO RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE. MAX TEMPS MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50
SE. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD WITH THE CORE OF THE
VORT MAX... NOW TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A PREFERRED TRACK FOR
PRECIP WOULD BE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... STILL
EXPECT WE MAY SEE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
NOW... WEDNESDAY NIGHT/INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH A LACK OF ANY
GOOD COLD AIR IN PLACE THOUGH... SURFACE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING... WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SURFACE
WETBULB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING EVEN... GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S AT THE
WORST WHEN THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS. GIVEN THIS ALONG WITH THE
LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMO IS FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING THE CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW IS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER... GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE AND RESULTANT STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... THINK WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT WITH THE MOST INTENSE PRECIP. THUS... ANY
SNOWFALL WOULD BE DRIVEN BY INTENSITY/RATES. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND RECENT WARM TEMPS DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS
FROM ANY SNOW. FOR GO WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE U.S. 64 CORRIDOR...
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA... ANY
PRECIP TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... THANKS
TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPS
ON THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE HOW MUCH IF ANY PRECIP WE GET AND HOW
QUICKLY WE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS/SCATTERING CLOUDS AND SEEING SOME SUN.
HAVE TRENDED THE HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE THOUGH GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND INTO THE AREA LATE
WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC BY THE
WEEKEND. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE BY LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND... AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE... A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
NORTHWARD AND NUDGE INTO OUR AREA... WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP ANY
NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR THE
U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. A TRAILING DRY COLD FRONT HOWEVER... IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... IN
BACKDOOR FASHION ON MONDAY. EXPECT TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND
CHILLY UNTIL WE SEE A WARMING RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY. THUS...
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 40S ON FRIDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM TUESDAY...

A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL NC
COUPLED WITH A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS BASICALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD
HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES THOUGH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST LATE TODAY AND
TRACK NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC...
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 AFFECTING THE KRDU...KFAY...AND KRWI
TERMINALS.

THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PROMPTING A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS. A FAST MOVING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...PROLONGING MVFR CEILINGS A BIT
LONGER AT KGSO/KINT/KRDU. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT CENTRAL NC AROUND
MID DAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...INITIATING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 251457
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
955 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ALONG THE
CAROLINA AND MIDATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM THANKSGIVING DAY AND REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 955 AM TUESDAY...

REST OF TODAY: LIGHT TO MDT RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER OUR SE CWA
EASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL AREA THIS MORNING... FUELED BY HIGH PW
VALUES (OVER 150% OF NORMAL) ALONG A TROPICAL-SOURCE MOISTURE
PLUME... WEAK MID LEVEL DPVA... AND WAVES OF ENHANCED UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG (160+ KT)
JET RUNNING FROM THE NRN GULF STATES TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. HI-
RES NEAR TERM MODEL OUTPUT AS WELL AS EXTRAPOLATION OF UPSTREAM
ECHOES SUGGESTS THAT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEADY RAIN SHIELD WILL
BRIEFLY NUDGE EASTWARD AND HOLD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... RESULTING
IN A RELATIVE LULL IN THE TRIANGLE AREA... ALTHOUGH ISOLATED PATCHES
OF VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT... WHILE
STEADY RAIN WILL HOLD OVER ERN CUMBERLAND CO THROUGH SAMPSON AND
WAYNE COUNTIES. BUT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON... WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
WESTWARD BULGING OF THE RAIN SHIELD... ALREADY SEEN MOVING INTO EAST-
CENTRAL GA... AND CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS OF POPS BACK UP TO
CATEGORICAL FROM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING MID-LATE AFTERNOON LOOKS
VERY GOOD. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PLOD ESE THROUGH CENTRAL
NC... HAVING JUST PASSED THROUGH WARRENTON / SILER CITY /
ALBEMARLE... CHARACTERIZED BY A WIND SHIFT TO NW AND DROP IN
DEWPOINTS. GIVEN THE THICK CLOUD SHIELD AND IMMINENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION... TEMPS SHOULD MOVE UP JUST A FEW DEGREES FROM THE THEIR
CURRENT READINGS... AND IN FACT THE WRN CWA MAY HAVE ALREADY SEEN
ITS DAYTIME HIGH. EXPECT AREAWIDE HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOW 60S... BUT
WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING READINGS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. -GIH

TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING/LIFTING E-NE
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL INDUCE A SURFACE WAVE TO FORM ON THE FRONT
THIS EVENING. THIS STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
ALOFT...A 805MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY NEWD UP ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO AID
TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LIFT WILL BE RATHER DEEP THROUGH
THE COLUMN THANKS TO 160+KT JET LIFTING NE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. FINALLY...ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE MOIST FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER
THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. THESE COMBINED VALUES SUGGEST
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT MODERATE-BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
VICINITY OF TEH 850MB LOW TRACK (I-95). PLAN TO HAVE CATEGORICAL
POPS MOST LOCATIONS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT VARYING FROM
AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE NW PIEDMONT TO MORE THAN AN INCH ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL RESULT IN A NLY FLOW
OVER CENTRAL NC. THS FLOW WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO OUR
REGION...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE SW LATE
MORNING-AFTERNOON AS THE SFC-850MB LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
RESULTANT NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL AID TO
DIMINISH RAIN AND GRADUALLY DECREASE CLOUD COVERAGE. CLEARING WILL BE
TEMPORARY AS FAST APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE AN
UPTICK IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO SUNSET. MAX
TEMPS WILL JUST BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS LOWS
DUE TO RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE. MAX TEMPS MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50
SE. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD WITH THE CORE OF THE
VORT MAX... NOW TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A PREFERRED TRACK FOR
PRECIP WOULD BE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... STILL
EXPECT WE MAY SEE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
NOW... WEDNESDAY NIGHT/INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH A LACK OF ANY
GOOD COLD AIR IN PLACE THOUGH... SURFACE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING... WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SURFACE
WETBULB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING EVEN... GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S AT THE
WORST WHEN THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS. GIVEN THIS ALONG WITH THE
LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMO IS FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING THE CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW IS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER... GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE AND RESULTANT STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... THINK WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT WITH THE MOST INTENSE PRECIP. THUS... ANY
SNOWFALL WOULD BE DRIVEN BY INTENSITY/RATES. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND RECENT WARM TEMPS DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS
FROM ANY SNOW. FOR GO WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE U.S. 64 CORRIDOR...
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA... ANY
PRECIP TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... THANKS
TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPS
ON THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE HOW MUCH IF ANY PRECIP WE GET AND HOW
QUICKLY WE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS/SCATTERING CLOUDS AND SEEING SOME SUN.
HAVE TRENDED THE HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE THOUGH GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND INTO THE AREA LATE
WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC BY THE
WEEKEND. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE BY LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND... AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE... A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
NORTHWARD AND NUDGE INTO OUR AREA... WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP ANY
NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR THE
U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. A TRAILING DRY COLD FRONT HOWEVER... IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... IN
BACKDOOR FASHION ON MONDAY. EXPECT TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND
CHILLY UNTIL WE SEE A WARMING RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY. THUS...
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 40S ON FRIDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM TUESDAY...

A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL NC
COUPLED WITH A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS BASICALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD
HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES THOUGH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST LATE TODAY AND
TRACK NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC...
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 AFFECTING THE KRDU...KFAY...AND KRWI
TERMINALS.

THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PROMPTING A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS. A FAST MOVING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...PROLONGING MVFR CEILINGS A BIT
LONGER AT KGSO/KINT/KRDU. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT CENTRAL NC AROUND
MID DAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...INITIATING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 251131
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
635 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ALONG THE
CAROLINA AND MIDATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM THANKSGIVING DAY AND REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST WEST-NW OF THE TRIAD.
ALOFT...SW FLOW CONTINUED TO PULL MOISTURE AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS
UP FROM THE GULF INTO THE SE U.S. AND CENTRAL NC.

MODEL GUIDANCE INSIST THAT SURFACE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. PER 06Z ANALYSIS...MODELS ALREADY TOO FAR
EAST WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND THIS TREND MAY PERSIST THIS MORNING
AS FRONT PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT. SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION
SUGGEST THAT TRAIN OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ESSENTIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. THUS...WILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE SE HALF THIS MORNING...TRENDING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NW.

MAX TEMPS TODAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF RAIN AND EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF SURFACE FRONT. DUE TO EXPECTED RAIN AND CLOUD
COVERAGE...EXPECT A UNIFORM MAX TEMPS FIELD IN THE LOW-MID 60S. DUE
TO EXPECTED SLOWER EWD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...MAY
NEED TO ADJUST MAX TEMPS (LIKELY UPWARD) OVER THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA.

TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING/LIFTING E-NE
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL INDUCE A SURFACE WAVE TO FORM ON THE FRONT
THIS EVENING. THIS STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
ALOFT...A 805MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY NEWD UP ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO AID
TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LIFT WILL BE RATHER DEEP THROUGH
THE COLUMN THANKS TO 160+KT JET LIFTING NE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. FINALLY...ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE MOIST FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER
THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. THESE COMBINED VALUES SUGGEST
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT MODERATE-BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
VICINITY OF TEH 850MB LOW TRACK (I-95). PLAN TO HAVE CATEGORICAL
POPS MOST LOCATIONS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT VARYING FROM
AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE NW PIEDMONT TO MORE THAN AN INCH ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL RESULT IN A NLY FLOW
OVER CENTRAL NC. THS FLOW WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO OUR
REGION...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE SW LATE
MORNING-AFTERNOON AS THE SFC-850MB LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
RESULTANT NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL AID TO
DIMINISH RAIN AND GRADUALLY DECREASE CLOUD COVERAGE. CLEARING WILL BE
TEMPORARY AS FAST APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE AN
UPTICK IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO SUNSET. MAX
TEMPS WILL JUST BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS LOWS
DUE TO RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE. MAX TEMPS MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50
SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD WITH THE CORE OF THE
VORT MAX... NOW TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A PREFERRED TRACK FOR
PRECIP WOULD BE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... STILL
EXPECT WE MAY SEE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
NOW... WEDNESDAY NIGHT/INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH A LACK OF ANY
GOOD COLD AIR IN PLACE THOUGH... SURFACE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING... WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SURFACE
WETBULB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING EVEN... GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S AT THE
WORST WHEN THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS. GIVEN THIS ALONG WITH THE
LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMO IS FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING THE CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW IS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER... GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE AND RESULTANT STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... THINK WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT WITH THE MOST INTENSE PRECIP. THUS... ANY
SNOWFALL WOULD BE DRIVEN BY INTENSITY/RATES. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND RECENT WARM TEMPS DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS
FROM ANY SNOW. FOR GO WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE U.S. 64 CORRIDOR...
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA... ANY
PRECIP TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... THANKS
TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPS
ON THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE HOW MUCH IF ANY PRECIP WE GET AND HOW
QUICKLY WE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS/SCATTERING CLOUDS AND SEEING SOME SUN.
HAVE TRENDED THE HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE THOUGH GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND INTO THE AREA LATE
WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC BY THE
WEEKEND. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE BY LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND... AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE... A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
NORTHWARD AND NUDGE INTO OUR AREA... WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP ANY
NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR THE
U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. A TRAILING DRY COLD FRONT HOWEVER... IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... IN
BACKDOOR FASHION ON MONDAY. EXPECT TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND
CHILLY UNTIL WE SEE A WARMING RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY. THUS...
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 40S ON FRIDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM TUESDAY...

A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL NC
COUPLED WITH A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS BASICALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD
HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES THOUGH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST LATE TODAY AND
TRACK NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC...
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 AFFECTING THE KRDU...KFAY...AND KRWI
TERMINALS.

THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PROMPTING A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS. A FAST MOVING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...PROLONGING MVFR CEILINGS A BIT
LONGER AT KGSO/KINT/KRDU. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT CENTRAL NC AROUND
MID DAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...INITIATING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 251131
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
635 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ALONG THE
CAROLINA AND MIDATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM THANKSGIVING DAY AND REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST WEST-NW OF THE TRIAD.
ALOFT...SW FLOW CONTINUED TO PULL MOISTURE AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS
UP FROM THE GULF INTO THE SE U.S. AND CENTRAL NC.

MODEL GUIDANCE INSIST THAT SURFACE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. PER 06Z ANALYSIS...MODELS ALREADY TOO FAR
EAST WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND THIS TREND MAY PERSIST THIS MORNING
AS FRONT PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT. SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION
SUGGEST THAT TRAIN OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ESSENTIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. THUS...WILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE SE HALF THIS MORNING...TRENDING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NW.

MAX TEMPS TODAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF RAIN AND EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF SURFACE FRONT. DUE TO EXPECTED RAIN AND CLOUD
COVERAGE...EXPECT A UNIFORM MAX TEMPS FIELD IN THE LOW-MID 60S. DUE
TO EXPECTED SLOWER EWD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...MAY
NEED TO ADJUST MAX TEMPS (LIKELY UPWARD) OVER THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA.

TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING/LIFTING E-NE
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL INDUCE A SURFACE WAVE TO FORM ON THE FRONT
THIS EVENING. THIS STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
ALOFT...A 805MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY NEWD UP ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO AID
TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LIFT WILL BE RATHER DEEP THROUGH
THE COLUMN THANKS TO 160+KT JET LIFTING NE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. FINALLY...ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE MOIST FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER
THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. THESE COMBINED VALUES SUGGEST
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT MODERATE-BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
VICINITY OF TEH 850MB LOW TRACK (I-95). PLAN TO HAVE CATEGORICAL
POPS MOST LOCATIONS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT VARYING FROM
AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE NW PIEDMONT TO MORE THAN AN INCH ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL RESULT IN A NLY FLOW
OVER CENTRAL NC. THS FLOW WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO OUR
REGION...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE SW LATE
MORNING-AFTERNOON AS THE SFC-850MB LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
RESULTANT NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL AID TO
DIMINISH RAIN AND GRADUALLY DECREASE CLOUD COVERAGE. CLEARING WILL BE
TEMPORARY AS FAST APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE AN
UPTICK IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO SUNSET. MAX
TEMPS WILL JUST BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS LOWS
DUE TO RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE. MAX TEMPS MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50
SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD WITH THE CORE OF THE
VORT MAX... NOW TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A PREFERRED TRACK FOR
PRECIP WOULD BE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... STILL
EXPECT WE MAY SEE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
NOW... WEDNESDAY NIGHT/INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH A LACK OF ANY
GOOD COLD AIR IN PLACE THOUGH... SURFACE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING... WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SURFACE
WETBULB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING EVEN... GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S AT THE
WORST WHEN THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS. GIVEN THIS ALONG WITH THE
LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMO IS FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING THE CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW IS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER... GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE AND RESULTANT STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... THINK WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT WITH THE MOST INTENSE PRECIP. THUS... ANY
SNOWFALL WOULD BE DRIVEN BY INTENSITY/RATES. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND RECENT WARM TEMPS DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS
FROM ANY SNOW. FOR GO WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE U.S. 64 CORRIDOR...
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA... ANY
PRECIP TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... THANKS
TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPS
ON THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE HOW MUCH IF ANY PRECIP WE GET AND HOW
QUICKLY WE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS/SCATTERING CLOUDS AND SEEING SOME SUN.
HAVE TRENDED THE HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE THOUGH GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND INTO THE AREA LATE
WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC BY THE
WEEKEND. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE BY LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND... AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE... A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
NORTHWARD AND NUDGE INTO OUR AREA... WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP ANY
NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR THE
U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. A TRAILING DRY COLD FRONT HOWEVER... IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... IN
BACKDOOR FASHION ON MONDAY. EXPECT TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND
CHILLY UNTIL WE SEE A WARMING RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY. THUS...
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 40S ON FRIDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM TUESDAY...

A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL NC
COUPLED WITH A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS BASICALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD
HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES THOUGH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST LATE TODAY AND
TRACK NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC...
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 AFFECTING THE KRDU...KFAY...AND KRWI
TERMINALS.

THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PROMPTING A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS. A FAST MOVING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...PROLONGING MVFR CEILINGS A BIT
LONGER AT KGSO/KINT/KRDU. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT CENTRAL NC AROUND
MID DAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...INITIATING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 250810
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ALONG THE
CAROLINA AND MIDATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM THANKSGIVING DAY AND REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST WEST-NW OF THE TRIAD.
ALOFT...SW FLOW CONTINUED TO PULL MOISTURE AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS
UP FROM THE GULF INTO THE SE U.S. AND CENTRAL NC.

MODEL GUIDANCE INSIST THAT SURFACE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. PER 06Z ANALYSIS...MODELS ALREADY TOO FAR
EAST WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND THIS TREND MAY PERSIST THIS MORNING
AS FRONT PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT. SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION
SUGGEST THAT TRAIN OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ESSENTIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. THUS...WILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE SE HALF THIS MORNING...TRENDING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NW.

MAX TEMPS TODAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF RAIN AND EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF SURFACE FRONT. DUE TO EXPECTED RAIN AND CLOUD
COVERAGE...EXPECT A UNIFORM MAX TEMPS FIELD IN THE LOW-MID 60S. DUE
TO EXPECTED SLOWER EWD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...MAY
NEED TO ADJUST MAX TEMPS (LIKELY UPWARD) OVER THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA.

TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING/LIFTING E-NE
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL INDUCE A SURFACE WAVE TO FORM ON THE FRONT
THIS EVENING. THIS STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
ALOFT...A 805MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY NEWD UP ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO AID
TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LIFT WILL BE RATHER DEEP THROUGH
THE COLUMN THANKS TO 160+KT JET LIFTING NE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. FINALLY...ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE MOIST FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER
THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. THESE COMBINED VALUES SUGGEST
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT MODERATE-BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
VICINITY OF TEH 850MB LOW TRACK (I-95). PLAN TO HAVE CATEGORICAL
POPS MOST LOCATIONS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT VARYING FROM
AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE NW PIEDMONT TO MORE THAN AN INCH ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL RESULT IN A NLY FLOW
OVER CENTRAL NC. THS FLOW WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO OUR
REGION...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE SW LATE
MORNING-AFTERNOON AS THE SFC-850MB LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
RESULTANT NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL AID TO
DIMINISH RAIN AND GRADUALLY DECREASE CLOUD COVERAGE. CLEARING WILL BE
TEMPORARY AS FAST APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE AN
UPTICK IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO SUNSET. MAX
TEMPS WILL JUST BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS LOWS
DUE TO RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE. MAX TEMPS MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50
SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD WITH THE CORE OF THE
VORT MAX... NOW TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A PREFERRED TRACK FOR
PRECIP WOULD BE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... STILL
EXPECT WE MAY SEE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
NOW... WEDNESDAY NIGHT/INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH A LACK OF ANY
GOOD COLD AIR IN PLACE THOUGH... SURFACE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING... WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SURFACE
WETBULB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING EVEN... GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S AT THE
WORST WHEN THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS. GIVEN THIS ALONG WITH THE
LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMO IS FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING THE CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW IS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER... GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE AND RESULTANT STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... THINK WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT WITH THE MOST INTENSE PRECIP. THUS... ANY
SNOWFALL WOULD BE DRIVEN BY INTENSITY/RATES. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND RECENT WARM TEMPS DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS
FROM ANY SNOW. FOR GO WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE U.S. 64 CORRIDOR...
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA... ANY
PRECIP TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... THANKS
TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPS
ON THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE HOW MUCH IF ANY PRECIP WE GET AND HOW
QUICKLY WE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS/SCATTERING CLOUDS AND SEEING SOME SUN.
HAVE TRENDED THE HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE THOUGH GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND INTO THE AREA LATE
WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC BY THE
WEEKEND. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE BY LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND... AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE... A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
NORTHWARD AND NUDGE INTO OUR AREA... WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP ANY
NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR THE
U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. A TRAILING DRY COLD FRONT HOWEVER... IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... IN
BACKDOOR FASHION ON MONDAY. EXPECT TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND
CHILLY UNTIL WE SEE A WARMING RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY. THUS...
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 40S ON FRIDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...

A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL NC
COUPLED WITH A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD
HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES THOUGH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BETWEEN 08Z-14Z.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST LATE TODAY AND
TRACK NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC...
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 AFFECTING THE KRDU...KFAY...AND KRWI
TERMINALS.

THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PROMPTING A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS. A FAST MOVING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...PROLONGING MVFR CEILINGS A BIT
LONGER AT KGSO/KINT/KRDU. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT CENTRAL NC AROUND
MID DAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...INITIATING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 250810
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ALONG THE
CAROLINA AND MIDATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM THANKSGIVING DAY AND REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST WEST-NW OF THE TRIAD.
ALOFT...SW FLOW CONTINUED TO PULL MOISTURE AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS
UP FROM THE GULF INTO THE SE U.S. AND CENTRAL NC.

MODEL GUIDANCE INSIST THAT SURFACE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING. PER 06Z ANALYSIS...MODELS ALREADY TOO FAR
EAST WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND THIS TREND MAY PERSIST THIS MORNING
AS FRONT PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT. SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION
SUGGEST THAT TRAIN OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ESSENTIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. THUS...WILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE SE HALF THIS MORNING...TRENDING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NW.

MAX TEMPS TODAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF RAIN AND EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF SURFACE FRONT. DUE TO EXPECTED RAIN AND CLOUD
COVERAGE...EXPECT A UNIFORM MAX TEMPS FIELD IN THE LOW-MID 60S. DUE
TO EXPECTED SLOWER EWD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...MAY
NEED TO ADJUST MAX TEMPS (LIKELY UPWARD) OVER THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA.

TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING/LIFTING E-NE
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL INDUCE A SURFACE WAVE TO FORM ON THE FRONT
THIS EVENING. THIS STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
ALOFT...A 805MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY NEWD UP ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO AID
TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LIFT WILL BE RATHER DEEP THROUGH
THE COLUMN THANKS TO 160+KT JET LIFTING NE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. FINALLY...ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE MOIST FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER
THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. THESE COMBINED VALUES SUGGEST
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT MODERATE-BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
VICINITY OF TEH 850MB LOW TRACK (I-95). PLAN TO HAVE CATEGORICAL
POPS MOST LOCATIONS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT VARYING FROM
AROUND A HALF INCH IN THE NW PIEDMONT TO MORE THAN AN INCH ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 1.

CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL RESULT IN A NLY FLOW
OVER CENTRAL NC. THS FLOW WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO OUR
REGION...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM THE SW LATE
MORNING-AFTERNOON AS THE SFC-850MB LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NE.
RESULTANT NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL AID TO
DIMINISH RAIN AND GRADUALLY DECREASE CLOUD COVERAGE. CLEARING WILL BE
TEMPORARY AS FAST APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE AN
UPTICK IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT PRIOR TO SUNSET. MAX
TEMPS WILL JUST BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS LOWS
DUE TO RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE. MAX TEMPS MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50
SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD WITH THE CORE OF THE
VORT MAX... NOW TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A PREFERRED TRACK FOR
PRECIP WOULD BE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER... STILL
EXPECT WE MAY SEE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
NOW... WEDNESDAY NIGHT/INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH A LACK OF ANY
GOOD COLD AIR IN PLACE THOUGH... SURFACE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING... WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SURFACE
WETBULB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING EVEN... GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S AT THE
WORST WHEN THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP IS. GIVEN THIS ALONG WITH THE
LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMO IS FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING THE CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW IS QUITE LOW.
HOWEVER... GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE AND RESULTANT STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... THINK WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT WITH THE MOST INTENSE PRECIP. THUS... ANY
SNOWFALL WOULD BE DRIVEN BY INTENSITY/RATES. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND RECENT WARM TEMPS DO NOT EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS
FROM ANY SNOW. FOR GO WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT/SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE U.S. 64 CORRIDOR...
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA... ANY
PRECIP TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S... THANKS
TO THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPS
ON THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE HOW MUCH IF ANY PRECIP WE GET AND HOW
QUICKLY WE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS/SCATTERING CLOUDS AND SEEING SOME SUN.
HAVE TRENDED THE HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE THOUGH GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S
NORTH/NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND INTO THE AREA LATE
WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC BY THE
WEEKEND. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE BY LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND... AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE... A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
NORTHWARD AND NUDGE INTO OUR AREA... WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP ANY
NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR THE
U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. A TRAILING DRY COLD FRONT HOWEVER... IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... IN
BACKDOOR FASHION ON MONDAY. EXPECT TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND
CHILLY UNTIL WE SEE A WARMING RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY. THUS...
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 40S ON FRIDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...

A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL NC
COUPLED WITH A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD
HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES THOUGH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BETWEEN 08Z-14Z.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST LATE TODAY AND
TRACK NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC...
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 AFFECTING THE KRDU...KFAY...AND KRWI
TERMINALS.

THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PROMPTING A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS. A FAST MOVING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...PROLONGING MVFR CEILINGS A BIT
LONGER AT KGSO/KINT/KRDU. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT CENTRAL NC AROUND
MID DAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...INITIATING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 250540
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ALONG THE
CAROLINA AND MIDATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM THANKSGIVING DAY AND REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...

THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET COMBINED WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE PIEDMONT HAVE NECESSITATED BOOSTING RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT. THE WV SATELLITE DATA INDICATES ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHING NC FROM THE SSW WHICH HAS BACKED THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND
MOISTURE BACK TO THE APPALACHIANS. IF THE LATEST GFS/NAM VERIFY...
RAIN WILL HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS THE MODELS
PLAY CATCH UP WITH THE EVOLVING PATTERN. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE
50S TO NEAR 60 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR COASTAL NC THROUGH TUE... AS THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND CEASES ITS
EASTWARD PUSH. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS JUST OFF
THE COAST TUE MORNING... WHILE THE ELEVATED PW VALUES ACCORDINGLY
GET BUMPED EASTWARD AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE A QUIET
AND DRY DAY WITH JUST SOME MID CLOUDS STREAKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE TRADITIONAL MODELS AS
WELL AS THE HI-RES WRF NMM/ARW AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST
THAT OUR FAR SE CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... LIKELY FALLING FROM AN ELEVATED CLOUD BASE WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON QPF AS ANY RAIN SHOULD FALL THROUGH A SOMEWHAT DRY LAYER
FROM 800-925 MB. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUE... WITH SAMPSON AND SE WAYNE COUNTIES SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS OF AROUND 60 TO 66... WITH
THE WEST HALF SEEING MUCH MORE SUN THAN THE EASTERN HALF. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF AND NRN FL
LATE TUE... THEN TRACK TO THE NNE TO A POSITION OFF THE SRN NC COAST
BY 12Z WED AS CENTRAL PRESSURES DROP 5 MB. STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING UPPER JET
CORE (TO AROUND 200 KTS) FROM CENTRAL NC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASE LIFT FURTHER INLAND... AND WE`LL BEGIN
TO SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS LATE. THIS ALONG WITH RE-MOISTENING OF
THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POPS TUE EVENING/NIGHT... UP TO
CATEGORICAL EAST WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY WEST OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL DPVA WILL BE RATHER MEAGER. THE COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS BRINGS ABOUT A
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE NON-LIQUID PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. EXAMINING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL
BE RATHER HIGH INITIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPS (AND WET BULBS) WELL
ABOVE FREEZING... AND THAT BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
SUFFICIENTLY... THE LOWEST THOUSAND FEET IN THE TRIAD SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. AND BY THE TIME THE MARKED COOLING ARRIVES IN THE
LOW LEVELS... WE WILL HAVE ALREADY DRIED OUT ALOFT. SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW WET FLAKES IN THE NW PIEDMONT LATE TUE NIGHT... IT WILL BE
OF ZERO CONSEQUENCE. EXPECT LOWS FROM 36 NW TO 44 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE
THE LOW IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. FOR NOW...
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE ALL LIQUID...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN...MAINLY THE FAR NORTHWEST FOR
THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S. CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL FALL IS VERY LOW AT THIS
POINT AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. DRY AIR
WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND MIXING DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECT MAINLY AROUND 40 DEGREES
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT: THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW WILL COME
ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
IF IT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S...SNOW FLURRIES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE
FASTER GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF
WOULD FAVOR SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL THE S/W
EXITS THE REGION...RAPIDLY CLEARING BEHIND IT. WITH PLENTY OF SUN
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH. CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...FROM MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...

A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL NC
COUPLED WITH A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD
HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES THOUGH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BETWEEN 08Z-14Z.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST LATE TODAY AND
TRACK NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC...
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 AFFECTING THE KRDU...KFAY...AND KRWI
TERMINALS.

THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PROMPTING A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS. A FAST MOVING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...PROLONGING MVFR CEILINGS A BIT
LONGER AT KGSO/KINT/KRDU. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT CENTRAL NC AROUND
MID DAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...INITIATING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 250540
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ALONG THE
CAROLINA AND MIDATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM THANKSGIVING DAY AND REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...

THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET COMBINED WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE PIEDMONT HAVE NECESSITATED BOOSTING RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT. THE WV SATELLITE DATA INDICATES ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHING NC FROM THE SSW WHICH HAS BACKED THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND
MOISTURE BACK TO THE APPALACHIANS. IF THE LATEST GFS/NAM VERIFY...
RAIN WILL HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS THE MODELS
PLAY CATCH UP WITH THE EVOLVING PATTERN. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE
50S TO NEAR 60 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR COASTAL NC THROUGH TUE... AS THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND CEASES ITS
EASTWARD PUSH. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS JUST OFF
THE COAST TUE MORNING... WHILE THE ELEVATED PW VALUES ACCORDINGLY
GET BUMPED EASTWARD AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE A QUIET
AND DRY DAY WITH JUST SOME MID CLOUDS STREAKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE TRADITIONAL MODELS AS
WELL AS THE HI-RES WRF NMM/ARW AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST
THAT OUR FAR SE CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... LIKELY FALLING FROM AN ELEVATED CLOUD BASE WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON QPF AS ANY RAIN SHOULD FALL THROUGH A SOMEWHAT DRY LAYER
FROM 800-925 MB. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUE... WITH SAMPSON AND SE WAYNE COUNTIES SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS OF AROUND 60 TO 66... WITH
THE WEST HALF SEEING MUCH MORE SUN THAN THE EASTERN HALF. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF AND NRN FL
LATE TUE... THEN TRACK TO THE NNE TO A POSITION OFF THE SRN NC COAST
BY 12Z WED AS CENTRAL PRESSURES DROP 5 MB. STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING UPPER JET
CORE (TO AROUND 200 KTS) FROM CENTRAL NC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASE LIFT FURTHER INLAND... AND WE`LL BEGIN
TO SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS LATE. THIS ALONG WITH RE-MOISTENING OF
THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POPS TUE EVENING/NIGHT... UP TO
CATEGORICAL EAST WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY WEST OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL DPVA WILL BE RATHER MEAGER. THE COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS BRINGS ABOUT A
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE NON-LIQUID PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. EXAMINING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL
BE RATHER HIGH INITIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPS (AND WET BULBS) WELL
ABOVE FREEZING... AND THAT BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
SUFFICIENTLY... THE LOWEST THOUSAND FEET IN THE TRIAD SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. AND BY THE TIME THE MARKED COOLING ARRIVES IN THE
LOW LEVELS... WE WILL HAVE ALREADY DRIED OUT ALOFT. SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW WET FLAKES IN THE NW PIEDMONT LATE TUE NIGHT... IT WILL BE
OF ZERO CONSEQUENCE. EXPECT LOWS FROM 36 NW TO 44 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE
THE LOW IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. FOR NOW...
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE ALL LIQUID...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN...MAINLY THE FAR NORTHWEST FOR
THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S. CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL FALL IS VERY LOW AT THIS
POINT AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. DRY AIR
WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND MIXING DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECT MAINLY AROUND 40 DEGREES
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT: THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW WILL COME
ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
IF IT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S...SNOW FLURRIES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE
FASTER GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF
WOULD FAVOR SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL THE S/W
EXITS THE REGION...RAPIDLY CLEARING BEHIND IT. WITH PLENTY OF SUN
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH. CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...FROM MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUESDAY...

A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL NC
COUPLED WITH A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD
HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES THOUGH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BETWEEN 08Z-14Z.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST LATE TODAY AND
TRACK NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL NC...
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 AFFECTING THE KRDU...KFAY...AND KRWI
TERMINALS.

THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PROMPTING A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS. A FAST MOVING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...PROLONGING MVFR CEILINGS A BIT
LONGER AT KGSO/KINT/KRDU. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT CENTRAL NC AROUND
MID DAY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...INITIATING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 250337
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1030 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT... THEN
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...

THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET COMBINED WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE PIEDMONT HAVE NECESSITATED BOOSTING RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT. THE WV SATELLITE DATA INDICATES ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHING NC FROM THE SSW WHICH HAS BACKED THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND
MOISTURE BACK TO THE APPALACHIANS. IF THE LATEST GFS/NAM VERIFY...
RAIN WILL HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS THE MODELS
PLAY CATCH UP WITH THE EVOLVING PATTERN. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE
50S TO NEAR 60 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR COASTAL NC THROUGH TUE... AS THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND CEASES ITS
EASTWARD PUSH. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS JUST OFF
THE COAST TUE MORNING... WHILE THE ELEVATED PW VALUES ACCORDINGLY
GET BUMPED EASTWARD AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE A QUIET
AND DRY DAY WITH JUST SOME MID CLOUDS STREAKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE TRADITIONAL MODELS AS
WELL AS THE HI-RES WRF NMM/ARW AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST
THAT OUR FAR SE CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... LIKELY FALLING FROM AN ELEVATED CLOUD BASE WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON QPF AS ANY RAIN SHOULD FALL THROUGH A SOMEWHAT DRY LAYER
FROM 800-925 MB. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUE... WITH SAMPSON AND SE WAYNE COUNTIES SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS OF AROUND 60 TO 66... WITH
THE WEST HALF SEEING MUCH MORE SUN THAN THE EASTERN HALF. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF AND NRN FL
LATE TUE... THEN TRACK TO THE NNE TO A POSITION OFF THE SRN NC COAST
BY 12Z WED AS CENTRAL PRESSURES DROP 5 MB. STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING UPPER JET
CORE (TO AROUND 200 KTS) FROM CENTRAL NC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASE LIFT FURTHER INLAND... AND WE`LL BEGIN
TO SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS LATE. THIS ALONG WITH RE-MOISTENING OF
THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POPS TUE EVENING/NIGHT... UP TO
CATEGORICAL EAST WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY WEST OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL DPVA WILL BE RATHER MEAGER. THE COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS BRINGS ABOUT A
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE NON-LIQUID PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. EXAMINING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL
BE RATHER HIGH INITIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPS (AND WET BULBS) WELL
ABOVE FREEZING... AND THAT BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
SUFFICIENTLY... THE LOWEST THOUSAND FEET IN THE TRIAD SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. AND BY THE TIME THE MARKED COOLING ARRIVES IN THE
LOW LEVELS... WE WILL HAVE ALREADY DRIED OUT ALOFT. SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW WET FLAKES IN THE NW PIEDMONT LATE TUE NIGHT... IT WILL BE
OF ZERO CONSEQUENCE. EXPECT LOWS FROM 36 NW TO 44 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE
THE LOW IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. FOR NOW...
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE ALL LIQUID...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN...MAINLY THE FAR NORTHWEST FOR
THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S. CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL FALL IS VERY LOW AT THIS
POINT AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. DRY AIR
WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND MIXING DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECT MAINLY AROUND 40 DEGREES
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT: THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW WILL COME
ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
IF IT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S...SNOW FLURRIES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE
FASTER GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF
WOULD FAVOR SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL THE S/W
EXITS THE REGION...RAPIDLY CLEARING BEHIND IT. WITH PLENTY OF SUN
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH. CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...FROM MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 710 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FURTHER
EAST IN CLOSE VICINITY TO A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE...SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...PARTICULARLY
AT THE FAY/RWI TERMINALS. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AT 5-10 KT THIS EVENING
WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: DETERIORATING CONDITIONS (MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND RAIN)
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE AND TRACKS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
DELAYED BY THE APPROACH OF A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ATTENDANT CHANCE FOR LOW CEILINGS/RAIN WED NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA THU AN PERSIST THROUGH FRI/SAT AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 250337
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1030 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT... THEN
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...

THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET COMBINED WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE PIEDMONT HAVE NECESSITATED BOOSTING RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT. THE WV SATELLITE DATA INDICATES ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHING NC FROM THE SSW WHICH HAS BACKED THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND
MOISTURE BACK TO THE APPALACHIANS. IF THE LATEST GFS/NAM VERIFY...
RAIN WILL HAVE TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS THE MODELS
PLAY CATCH UP WITH THE EVOLVING PATTERN. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE
50S TO NEAR 60 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR COASTAL NC THROUGH TUE... AS THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND CEASES ITS
EASTWARD PUSH. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS JUST OFF
THE COAST TUE MORNING... WHILE THE ELEVATED PW VALUES ACCORDINGLY
GET BUMPED EASTWARD AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE A QUIET
AND DRY DAY WITH JUST SOME MID CLOUDS STREAKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE TRADITIONAL MODELS AS
WELL AS THE HI-RES WRF NMM/ARW AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST
THAT OUR FAR SE CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... LIKELY FALLING FROM AN ELEVATED CLOUD BASE WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON QPF AS ANY RAIN SHOULD FALL THROUGH A SOMEWHAT DRY LAYER
FROM 800-925 MB. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUE... WITH SAMPSON AND SE WAYNE COUNTIES SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS OF AROUND 60 TO 66... WITH
THE WEST HALF SEEING MUCH MORE SUN THAN THE EASTERN HALF. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF AND NRN FL
LATE TUE... THEN TRACK TO THE NNE TO A POSITION OFF THE SRN NC COAST
BY 12Z WED AS CENTRAL PRESSURES DROP 5 MB. STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING UPPER JET
CORE (TO AROUND 200 KTS) FROM CENTRAL NC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASE LIFT FURTHER INLAND... AND WE`LL BEGIN
TO SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS LATE. THIS ALONG WITH RE-MOISTENING OF
THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POPS TUE EVENING/NIGHT... UP TO
CATEGORICAL EAST WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY WEST OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL DPVA WILL BE RATHER MEAGER. THE COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS BRINGS ABOUT A
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE NON-LIQUID PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. EXAMINING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL
BE RATHER HIGH INITIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPS (AND WET BULBS) WELL
ABOVE FREEZING... AND THAT BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
SUFFICIENTLY... THE LOWEST THOUSAND FEET IN THE TRIAD SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. AND BY THE TIME THE MARKED COOLING ARRIVES IN THE
LOW LEVELS... WE WILL HAVE ALREADY DRIED OUT ALOFT. SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW WET FLAKES IN THE NW PIEDMONT LATE TUE NIGHT... IT WILL BE
OF ZERO CONSEQUENCE. EXPECT LOWS FROM 36 NW TO 44 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE
THE LOW IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. FOR NOW...
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE ALL LIQUID...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN...MAINLY THE FAR NORTHWEST FOR
THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S. CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL FALL IS VERY LOW AT THIS
POINT AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. DRY AIR
WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND MIXING DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECT MAINLY AROUND 40 DEGREES
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT: THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW WILL COME
ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
IF IT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S...SNOW FLURRIES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE
FASTER GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF
WOULD FAVOR SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL THE S/W
EXITS THE REGION...RAPIDLY CLEARING BEHIND IT. WITH PLENTY OF SUN
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH. CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...FROM MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 710 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FURTHER
EAST IN CLOSE VICINITY TO A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE...SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...PARTICULARLY
AT THE FAY/RWI TERMINALS. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AT 5-10 KT THIS EVENING
WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: DETERIORATING CONDITIONS (MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND RAIN)
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE AND TRACKS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
DELAYED BY THE APPROACH OF A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ATTENDANT CHANCE FOR LOW CEILINGS/RAIN WED NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA THU AN PERSIST THROUGH FRI/SAT AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 250010 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
710 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT... THEN
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 PM MONDAY...

THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET COMBINED WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE PIEDMONT HAVE NECESSITATED EXTENDING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE PIEDMONT
THROUGH MID EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SCATTERED AND
QUICK MOVING AND ONLY AFFECT THE AREAS HIT FOR ONLY 5-10 MINUTES.
OTHERWISE... THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE OVER
SC AND EASTERN NC LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT (MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH
ZONES). OTHERWISE... MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY AND MILD. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR SOME 40S IN THE NW IF ENOUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS LINGER THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR COASTAL NC THROUGH TUE... AS THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND CEASES ITS
EASTWARD PUSH. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS JUST OFF
THE COAST TUE MORNING... WHILE THE ELEVATED PW VALUES ACCORDINGLY
GET BUMPED EASTWARD AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE A QUIET
AND DRY DAY WITH JUST SOME MID CLOUDS STREAKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE TRADITIONAL MODELS AS
WELL AS THE HI-RES WRF NMM/ARW AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST
THAT OUR FAR SE CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... LIKELY FALLING FROM AN ELEVATED CLOUD BASE WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON QPF AS ANY RAIN SHOULD FALL THROUGH A SOMEWHAT DRY LAYER
FROM 800-925 MB. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUE... WITH SAMPSON AND SE WAYNE COUNTIES SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS OF AROUND 60 TO 66... WITH
THE WEST HALF SEEING MUCH MORE SUN THAN THE EASTERN HALF. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF AND NRN FL
LATE TUE... THEN TRACK TO THE NNE TO A POSITION OFF THE SRN NC COAST
BY 12Z WED AS CENTRAL PRESSURES DROP 5 MB. STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING UPPER JET
CORE (TO AROUND 200 KTS) FROM CENTRAL NC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASE LIFT FURTHER INLAND... AND WE`LL BEGIN
TO SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS LATE. THIS ALONG WITH RE-MOISTENING OF
THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POPS TUE EVENING/NIGHT... UP TO
CATEGORICAL EAST WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY WEST OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL DPVA WILL BE RATHER MEAGER. THE COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS BRINGS ABOUT A
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE NON-LIQUID PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. EXAMINING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL
BE RATHER HIGH INITIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPS (AND WET BULBS) WELL
ABOVE FREEZING... AND THAT BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
SUFFICIENTLY... THE LOWEST THOUSAND FEET IN THE TRIAD SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. AND BY THE TIME THE MARKED COOLING ARRIVES IN THE
LOW LEVELS... WE WILL HAVE ALREADY DRIED OUT ALOFT. SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW WET FLAKES IN THE NW PIEDMONT LATE TUE NIGHT... IT WILL BE
OF ZERO CONSEQUENCE. EXPECT LOWS FROM 36 NW TO 44 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE
THE LOW IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. FOR NOW...
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE ALL LIQUID...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN...MAINLY THE FAR NORTHWEST FOR
THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S. CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL FALL IS VERY LOW AT THIS
POINT AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. DRY AIR
WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND MIXING DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECT MAINLY AROUND 40 DEGREES
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT: THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW WILL COME
ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
IF IT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S...SNOW FLURRIES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE
FASTER GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF
WOULD FAVOR SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL THE S/W
EXITS THE REGION...RAPIDLY CLEARING BEHIND IT. WITH PLENTY OF SUN
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH. CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...FROM MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 710 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FURTHER
EAST IN CLOSE VICINITY TO A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE...SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...PARTICULARLY
AT THE FAY/RWI TERMINALS. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AT 5-10 KT THIS EVENING
WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: DETERIORATING CONDITIONS (MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND RAIN)
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE AND TRACKS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
DELAYED BY THE APPROACH OF A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ATTENDANT CHANCE FOR LOW CEILINGS/RAIN WED NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA THU AN PERSIST THROUGH FRI/SAT AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 250010 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
710 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT... THEN
TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 PM MONDAY...

THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET COMBINED WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE PIEDMONT HAVE NECESSITATED EXTENDING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE PIEDMONT
THROUGH MID EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SCATTERED AND
QUICK MOVING AND ONLY AFFECT THE AREAS HIT FOR ONLY 5-10 MINUTES.
OTHERWISE... THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE OVER
SC AND EASTERN NC LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT (MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH
ZONES). OTHERWISE... MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY AND MILD. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR SOME 40S IN THE NW IF ENOUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS LINGER THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR COASTAL NC THROUGH TUE... AS THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND CEASES ITS
EASTWARD PUSH. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS JUST OFF
THE COAST TUE MORNING... WHILE THE ELEVATED PW VALUES ACCORDINGLY
GET BUMPED EASTWARD AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE A QUIET
AND DRY DAY WITH JUST SOME MID CLOUDS STREAKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE TRADITIONAL MODELS AS
WELL AS THE HI-RES WRF NMM/ARW AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST
THAT OUR FAR SE CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... LIKELY FALLING FROM AN ELEVATED CLOUD BASE WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON QPF AS ANY RAIN SHOULD FALL THROUGH A SOMEWHAT DRY LAYER
FROM 800-925 MB. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUE... WITH SAMPSON AND SE WAYNE COUNTIES SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS OF AROUND 60 TO 66... WITH
THE WEST HALF SEEING MUCH MORE SUN THAN THE EASTERN HALF. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF AND NRN FL
LATE TUE... THEN TRACK TO THE NNE TO A POSITION OFF THE SRN NC COAST
BY 12Z WED AS CENTRAL PRESSURES DROP 5 MB. STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING UPPER JET
CORE (TO AROUND 200 KTS) FROM CENTRAL NC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASE LIFT FURTHER INLAND... AND WE`LL BEGIN
TO SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS LATE. THIS ALONG WITH RE-MOISTENING OF
THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POPS TUE EVENING/NIGHT... UP TO
CATEGORICAL EAST WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY WEST OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL DPVA WILL BE RATHER MEAGER. THE COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS BRINGS ABOUT A
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE NON-LIQUID PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. EXAMINING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL
BE RATHER HIGH INITIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPS (AND WET BULBS) WELL
ABOVE FREEZING... AND THAT BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
SUFFICIENTLY... THE LOWEST THOUSAND FEET IN THE TRIAD SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. AND BY THE TIME THE MARKED COOLING ARRIVES IN THE
LOW LEVELS... WE WILL HAVE ALREADY DRIED OUT ALOFT. SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW WET FLAKES IN THE NW PIEDMONT LATE TUE NIGHT... IT WILL BE
OF ZERO CONSEQUENCE. EXPECT LOWS FROM 36 NW TO 44 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE
THE LOW IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. FOR NOW...
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE ALL LIQUID...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN...MAINLY THE FAR NORTHWEST FOR
THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S. CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL FALL IS VERY LOW AT THIS
POINT AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. DRY AIR
WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND MIXING DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECT MAINLY AROUND 40 DEGREES
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT: THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW WILL COME
ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
IF IT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S...SNOW FLURRIES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE
FASTER GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF
WOULD FAVOR SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL THE S/W
EXITS THE REGION...RAPIDLY CLEARING BEHIND IT. WITH PLENTY OF SUN
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH. CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...FROM MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 710 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE INT/GSO TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FURTHER
EAST IN CLOSE VICINITY TO A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE...SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...PARTICULARLY
AT THE FAY/RWI TERMINALS. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AT 5-10 KT THIS EVENING
WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: DETERIORATING CONDITIONS (MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND RAIN)
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE AND TRACKS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
DELAYED BY THE APPROACH OF A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ATTENDANT CHANCE FOR LOW CEILINGS/RAIN WED NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA THU AN PERSIST THROUGH FRI/SAT AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 242244 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
545 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY... THEN TRACK NE ALONG THE
CAROLINA AND MIDATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 PM MONDAY...

THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET COMBINED WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE PIEDMONT HAVE NECESSITATED EXTENDING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE PIEDMONT
THROUGH MID EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SCATTERED AND
QUICK MOVING AND ONLY AFFECT THE AREAS HIT FOR ONLY 5-10 MINUTES.
OTHERWISE... THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE OVER
SC AND EASTERN NC LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT (MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH
ZONES). OTHERWISE... MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY AND MILD. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR SOME 40S IN THE NW IF ENOUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS LINGER THERE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR COASTAL NC THROUGH TUE... AS THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND CEASES ITS
EASTWARD PUSH. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS JUST OFF
THE COAST TUE MORNING... WHILE THE ELEVATED PW VALUES ACCORDINGLY
GET BUMPED EASTWARD AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE A QUIET
AND DRY DAY WITH JUST SOME MID CLOUDS STREAKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE TRADITIONAL MODELS AS
WELL AS THE HI-RES WRF NMM/ARW AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST
THAT OUR FAR SE CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... LIKELY FALLING FROM AN ELEVATED CLOUD BASE WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON QPF AS ANY RAIN SHOULD FALL THROUGH A SOMEWHAT DRY LAYER
FROM 800-925 MB. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUE... WITH SAMPSON AND SE WAYNE COUNTIES SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS OF AROUND 60 TO 66... WITH
THE WEST HALF SEEING MUCH MORE SUN THAN THE EASTERN HALF. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF AND NRN FL
LATE TUE... THEN TRACK TO THE NNE TO A POSITION OFF THE SRN NC COAST
BY 12Z WED AS CENTRAL PRESSURES DROP 5 MB. STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING UPPER JET
CORE (TO AROUND 200 KTS) FROM CENTRAL NC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASE LIFT FURTHER INLAND... AND WE`LL BEGIN
TO SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS LATE. THIS ALONG WITH RE-MOISTENING OF
THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POPS TUE EVENING/NIGHT... UP TO
CATEGORICAL EAST WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY WEST OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL DPVA WILL BE RATHER MEAGER. THE COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS BRINGS ABOUT A
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE NON-LIQUID PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. EXAMINING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL
BE RATHER HIGH INITIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPS (AND WET BULBS) WELL
ABOVE FREEZING... AND THAT BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
SUFFICIENTLY... THE LOWEST THOUSAND FEET IN THE TRIAD SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. AND BY THE TIME THE MARKED COOLING ARRIVES IN THE
LOW LEVELS... WE WILL HAVE ALREADY DRIED OUT ALOFT. SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW WET FLAKES IN THE NW PIEDMONT LATE TUE NIGHT... IT WILL BE
OF ZERO CONSEQUENCE. EXPECT LOWS FROM 36 NW TO 44 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE
THE LOW IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. FOR NOW...
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE ALL LIQUID...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN...MAINLY THE FAR NORTHWEST FOR
THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S. CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL FALL IS VERY LOW AT THIS
POINT AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. DRY AIR
WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND MIXING DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECT MAINLY AROUND 40 DEGREES
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT: THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW WILL COME
ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
IF IT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S...SNOW FLURRIES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE
FASTER GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF
WOULD FAVOR SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL THE S/W
EXITS THE REGION...RAPIDLY CLEARING BEHIND IT. WITH PLENTY OF SUN
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH. CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...FROM MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT INT/GSO THROUGH EARLY
TUE AFTERNOON... FARTHER EAST... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL COME AND GO AT
RDU/RWI/FAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON... AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AT FAY. CIGS AT RDU/FAY/RWI ARE EXPECTED TO THEN LIFT TO
VFR EARLY THIS EVENING...  ALTHOUGH THEY MAY HOLD MVFR LONGER AT
FAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8-
15 KTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SWING AROUND TO WEST THEN NW AND N LATE TONIGHT (BETWEEN 06Z AND
11Z) FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT... DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND MOIST
AIR NEAR THE GROUND... IFR/LIFR STRATUS MAY FORM AT RWI/FAY IN THE
HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 13Z TUE WITH NORTH
WINDS AND ANY CIGS ABOVE 3K FT AGL.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... ONCE THE FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST TUE
MORNING... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN FL EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON... AND BEGIN TO TRACK NE ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. THE BULK
OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM -- ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS -- IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 00Z WED (EARLY TUE
EVENING)... SPREADING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC TUE
EVENING... LASTING THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM SW TO NE
BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK AND GUSTY FROM THE
NNE AT FAY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TRACKS UP THE NC COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN LATE
WED AFTERNOON... HOWEVER PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WED EVENING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER MAINLY TO INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 242244 RRA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
545 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY... THEN TRACK NE ALONG THE
CAROLINA AND MIDATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 PM MONDAY...

THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET COMBINED WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE PIEDMONT HAVE NECESSITATED EXTENDING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE PIEDMONT
THROUGH MID EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SCATTERED AND
QUICK MOVING AND ONLY AFFECT THE AREAS HIT FOR ONLY 5-10 MINUTES.
OTHERWISE... THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE OVER
SC AND EASTERN NC LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT (MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH
ZONES). OTHERWISE... MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY AND MILD. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR SOME 40S IN THE NW IF ENOUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS LINGER THERE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR COASTAL NC THROUGH TUE... AS THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND CEASES ITS
EASTWARD PUSH. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS JUST OFF
THE COAST TUE MORNING... WHILE THE ELEVATED PW VALUES ACCORDINGLY
GET BUMPED EASTWARD AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE A QUIET
AND DRY DAY WITH JUST SOME MID CLOUDS STREAKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE TRADITIONAL MODELS AS
WELL AS THE HI-RES WRF NMM/ARW AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST
THAT OUR FAR SE CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... LIKELY FALLING FROM AN ELEVATED CLOUD BASE WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON QPF AS ANY RAIN SHOULD FALL THROUGH A SOMEWHAT DRY LAYER
FROM 800-925 MB. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUE... WITH SAMPSON AND SE WAYNE COUNTIES SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS OF AROUND 60 TO 66... WITH
THE WEST HALF SEEING MUCH MORE SUN THAN THE EASTERN HALF. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF AND NRN FL
LATE TUE... THEN TRACK TO THE NNE TO A POSITION OFF THE SRN NC COAST
BY 12Z WED AS CENTRAL PRESSURES DROP 5 MB. STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING UPPER JET
CORE (TO AROUND 200 KTS) FROM CENTRAL NC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASE LIFT FURTHER INLAND... AND WE`LL BEGIN
TO SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS LATE. THIS ALONG WITH RE-MOISTENING OF
THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POPS TUE EVENING/NIGHT... UP TO
CATEGORICAL EAST WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY WEST OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL DPVA WILL BE RATHER MEAGER. THE COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS BRINGS ABOUT A
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE NON-LIQUID PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. EXAMINING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL
BE RATHER HIGH INITIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPS (AND WET BULBS) WELL
ABOVE FREEZING... AND THAT BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
SUFFICIENTLY... THE LOWEST THOUSAND FEET IN THE TRIAD SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. AND BY THE TIME THE MARKED COOLING ARRIVES IN THE
LOW LEVELS... WE WILL HAVE ALREADY DRIED OUT ALOFT. SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW WET FLAKES IN THE NW PIEDMONT LATE TUE NIGHT... IT WILL BE
OF ZERO CONSEQUENCE. EXPECT LOWS FROM 36 NW TO 44 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE
THE LOW IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. FOR NOW...
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE ALL LIQUID...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN...MAINLY THE FAR NORTHWEST FOR
THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S. CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL FALL IS VERY LOW AT THIS
POINT AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. DRY AIR
WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND MIXING DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECT MAINLY AROUND 40 DEGREES
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT: THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW WILL COME
ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
IF IT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S...SNOW FLURRIES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE
FASTER GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF
WOULD FAVOR SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL THE S/W
EXITS THE REGION...RAPIDLY CLEARING BEHIND IT. WITH PLENTY OF SUN
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH. CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...FROM MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT INT/GSO THROUGH EARLY
TUE AFTERNOON... FARTHER EAST... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL COME AND GO AT
RDU/RWI/FAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON... AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AT FAY. CIGS AT RDU/FAY/RWI ARE EXPECTED TO THEN LIFT TO
VFR EARLY THIS EVENING...  ALTHOUGH THEY MAY HOLD MVFR LONGER AT
FAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8-
15 KTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SWING AROUND TO WEST THEN NW AND N LATE TONIGHT (BETWEEN 06Z AND
11Z) FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT... DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND MOIST
AIR NEAR THE GROUND... IFR/LIFR STRATUS MAY FORM AT RWI/FAY IN THE
HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 13Z TUE WITH NORTH
WINDS AND ANY CIGS ABOVE 3K FT AGL.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... ONCE THE FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST TUE
MORNING... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN FL EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON... AND BEGIN TO TRACK NE ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. THE BULK
OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM -- ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS -- IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 00Z WED (EARLY TUE
EVENING)... SPREADING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC TUE
EVENING... LASTING THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM SW TO NE
BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK AND GUSTY FROM THE
NNE AT FAY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TRACKS UP THE NC COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN LATE
WED AFTERNOON... HOWEVER PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WED EVENING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER MAINLY TO INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 242244
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY... THEN TRACK NE ALONG THE
CAROLINA AND MIDATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 540 PM MONDAY...

THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET COMBINED WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE PIEDMONT HAVE NECESSITATED EXTENDING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE PIEDMONT
THROUGH MID EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SCATTERED AND
QUICK MOVING AND ONLY AFFECT THE AREAS HIT FOR ONLY 5-10 MINUTES.
OTHERWISE... THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE OVER
SC AND EASTERN NC LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT (MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH
ZONES). OTHERWISE... MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY AND MILD. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR SOME 40S IN THE NW IF ENOUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS LINGER THERE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR COASTAL NC THROUGH TUE... AS THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND CEASES ITS
EASTWARD PUSH. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS JUST OFF
THE COAST TUE MORNING... WHILE THE ELEVATED PW VALUES ACCORDINGLY
GET BUMPED EASTWARD AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE A QUIET
AND DRY DAY WITH JUST SOME MID CLOUDS STREAKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE TRADITIONAL MODELS AS
WELL AS THE HI-RES WRF NMM/ARW AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST
THAT OUR FAR SE CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... LIKELY FALLING FROM AN ELEVATED CLOUD BASE WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON QPF AS ANY RAIN SHOULD FALL THROUGH A SOMEWHAT DRY LAYER
FROM 800-925 MB. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUE... WITH SAMPSON AND SE WAYNE COUNTIES SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS OF AROUND 60 TO 66... WITH
THE WEST HALF SEEING MUCH MORE SUN THAN THE EASTERN HALF. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF AND NRN FL
LATE TUE... THEN TRACK TO THE NNE TO A POSITION OFF THE SRN NC COAST
BY 12Z WED AS CENTRAL PRESSURES DROP 5 MB. STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING UPPER JET
CORE (TO AROUND 200 KTS) FROM CENTRAL NC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASE LIFT FURTHER INLAND... AND WE`LL BEGIN
TO SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS LATE. THIS ALONG WITH RE-MOISTENING OF
THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POPS TUE EVENING/NIGHT... UP TO
CATEGORICAL EAST WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY WEST OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL DPVA WILL BE RATHER MEAGER. THE COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS BRINGS ABOUT A
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE NON-LIQUID PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. EXAMINING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL
BE RATHER HIGH INITIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPS (AND WET BULBS) WELL
ABOVE FREEZING... AND THAT BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
SUFFICIENTLY... THE LOWEST THOUSAND FEET IN THE TRIAD SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. AND BY THE TIME THE MARKED COOLING ARRIVES IN THE
LOW LEVELS... WE WILL HAVE ALREADY DRIED OUT ALOFT. SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW WET FLAKES IN THE NW PIEDMONT LATE TUE NIGHT... IT WILL BE
OF ZERO CONSEQUENCE. EXPECT LOWS FROM 36 NW TO 44 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE
THE LOW IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. FOR NOW...
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE ALL LIQUID...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN...MAINLY THE FAR NORTHWEST FOR
THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S. CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL FALL IS VERY LOW AT THIS
POINT AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. DRY AIR
WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND MIXING DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECT MAINLY AROUND 40 DEGREES
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT: THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW WILL COME
ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
IF IT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S...SNOW FLURRIES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE
FASTER GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF
WOULD FAVOR SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL THE S/W
EXITS THE REGION...RAPIDLY CLEARING BEHIND IT. WITH PLENTY OF SUN
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH. CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...FROM MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT INT/GSO THROUGH EARLY
TUE AFTERNOON... FARTHER EAST... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL COME AND GO AT
RDU/RWI/FAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON... AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AT FAY. CIGS AT RDU/FAY/RWI ARE EXPECTED TO THEN LIFT TO
VFR EARLY THIS EVENING...  ALTHOUGH THEY MAY HOLD MVFR LONGER AT
FAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8-
15 KTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SWING AROUND TO WEST THEN NW AND N LATE TONIGHT (BETWEEN 06Z AND
11Z) FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT... DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND MOIST
AIR NEAR THE GROUND... IFR/LIFR STRATUS MAY FORM AT RWI/FAY IN THE
HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 13Z TUE WITH NORTH
WINDS AND ANY CIGS ABOVE 3K FT AGL.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... ONCE THE FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST TUE
MORNING... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN FL EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON... AND BEGIN TO TRACK NE ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. THE BULK
OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM -- ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS -- IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 00Z WED (EARLY TUE
EVENING)... SPREADING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC TUE
EVENING... LASTING THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM SW TO NE
BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK AND GUSTY FROM THE
NNE AT FAY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TRACKS UP THE NC COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN LATE
WED AFTERNOON... HOWEVER PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WED EVENING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER MAINLY TO INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 242244
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY... THEN TRACK NE ALONG THE
CAROLINA AND MIDATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 540 PM MONDAY...

THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET COMBINED WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE PIEDMONT HAVE NECESSITATED EXTENDING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE PIEDMONT
THROUGH MID EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SCATTERED AND
QUICK MOVING AND ONLY AFFECT THE AREAS HIT FOR ONLY 5-10 MINUTES.
OTHERWISE... THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE OVER
SC AND EASTERN NC LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT (MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH
ZONES). OTHERWISE... MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY AND MILD. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR SOME 40S IN THE NW IF ENOUGH BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS LINGER THERE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR COASTAL NC THROUGH TUE... AS THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND CEASES ITS
EASTWARD PUSH. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS JUST OFF
THE COAST TUE MORNING... WHILE THE ELEVATED PW VALUES ACCORDINGLY
GET BUMPED EASTWARD AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE A QUIET
AND DRY DAY WITH JUST SOME MID CLOUDS STREAKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE TRADITIONAL MODELS AS
WELL AS THE HI-RES WRF NMM/ARW AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST
THAT OUR FAR SE CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... LIKELY FALLING FROM AN ELEVATED CLOUD BASE WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON QPF AS ANY RAIN SHOULD FALL THROUGH A SOMEWHAT DRY LAYER
FROM 800-925 MB. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUE... WITH SAMPSON AND SE WAYNE COUNTIES SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS OF AROUND 60 TO 66... WITH
THE WEST HALF SEEING MUCH MORE SUN THAN THE EASTERN HALF. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF AND NRN FL
LATE TUE... THEN TRACK TO THE NNE TO A POSITION OFF THE SRN NC COAST
BY 12Z WED AS CENTRAL PRESSURES DROP 5 MB. STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING UPPER JET
CORE (TO AROUND 200 KTS) FROM CENTRAL NC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASE LIFT FURTHER INLAND... AND WE`LL BEGIN
TO SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS LATE. THIS ALONG WITH RE-MOISTENING OF
THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POPS TUE EVENING/NIGHT... UP TO
CATEGORICAL EAST WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY WEST OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL DPVA WILL BE RATHER MEAGER. THE COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS BRINGS ABOUT A
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE NON-LIQUID PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. EXAMINING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL
BE RATHER HIGH INITIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPS (AND WET BULBS) WELL
ABOVE FREEZING... AND THAT BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
SUFFICIENTLY... THE LOWEST THOUSAND FEET IN THE TRIAD SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. AND BY THE TIME THE MARKED COOLING ARRIVES IN THE
LOW LEVELS... WE WILL HAVE ALREADY DRIED OUT ALOFT. SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW WET FLAKES IN THE NW PIEDMONT LATE TUE NIGHT... IT WILL BE
OF ZERO CONSEQUENCE. EXPECT LOWS FROM 36 NW TO 44 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE
THE LOW IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. FOR NOW...
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE ALL LIQUID...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN...MAINLY THE FAR NORTHWEST FOR
THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S. CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL FALL IS VERY LOW AT THIS
POINT AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. DRY AIR
WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND MIXING DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECT MAINLY AROUND 40 DEGREES
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT: THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW WILL COME
ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
IF IT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S...SNOW FLURRIES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE
FASTER GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF
WOULD FAVOR SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL THE S/W
EXITS THE REGION...RAPIDLY CLEARING BEHIND IT. WITH PLENTY OF SUN
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH. CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...FROM MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT INT/GSO THROUGH EARLY
TUE AFTERNOON... FARTHER EAST... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL COME AND GO AT
RDU/RWI/FAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON... AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AT FAY. CIGS AT RDU/FAY/RWI ARE EXPECTED TO THEN LIFT TO
VFR EARLY THIS EVENING...  ALTHOUGH THEY MAY HOLD MVFR LONGER AT
FAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8-
15 KTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SWING AROUND TO WEST THEN NW AND N LATE TONIGHT (BETWEEN 06Z AND
11Z) FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT... DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND MOIST
AIR NEAR THE GROUND... IFR/LIFR STRATUS MAY FORM AT RWI/FAY IN THE
HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 13Z TUE WITH NORTH
WINDS AND ANY CIGS ABOVE 3K FT AGL.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... ONCE THE FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST TUE
MORNING... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN FL EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON... AND BEGIN TO TRACK NE ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. THE BULK
OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM -- ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS -- IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 00Z WED (EARLY TUE
EVENING)... SPREADING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC TUE
EVENING... LASTING THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM SW TO NE
BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK AND GUSTY FROM THE
NNE AT FAY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TRACKS UP THE NC COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN LATE
WED AFTERNOON... HOWEVER PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WED EVENING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER MAINLY TO INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 242030
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... THEN
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY... AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE CAROLINA AND MIDATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM
THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

WARM AIR PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL NC... WITH HIGHS SO FAR IN THE LOW
70S... ALONG WITH ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR IN THE EAST WHERE PW VALUES
EXCEED 1.7". STEADY HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 ALONG WITH MASS CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH IT MOST CERTAINLY WON`T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE
TIME. WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS IN THE EAST TONIGHT... WITH NOTHING
WEST WHERE THE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE. THE COLD FRONT
NOW ANALYZED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT...
DROP IN TEMPS AND DEWPOINT... AND PERHAPS A WESTWARD BUMP OF THE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP... BUT LITTLE ELSE GIVEN THE GENERALLY DRY AIR
IN PLACE AND LACK OF FORCING FEATURES INCLUDING A FLAT SW MID LEVEL
FLOW. CURRENT SW WINDS HAVE GUSTED SPORADICALLY TO 20-25 KT... BUT SO
FAR THESE HIGHER GUSTS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY INFREQUENT. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A LOSS OF MIXING. EXPECT
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE TRIAD TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR COASTAL NC THROUGH TUE... AS THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND CEASES ITS
EASTWARD PUSH. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS JUST OFF
THE COAST TUE MORNING... WHILE THE ELEVATED PW VALUES ACCORDINGLY
GET BUMPED EASTWARD AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE A QUIET
AND DRY DAY WITH JUST SOME MID CLOUDS STREAKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE TRADITIONAL MODELS AS
WELL AS THE HI-RES WRF NMM/ARW AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST
THAT OUR FAR SE CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... LIKELY FALLING FROM AN ELEVATED CLOUD BASE WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON QPF AS ANY RAIN SHOULD FALL THROUGH A SOMEWHAT DRY LAYER
FROM 800-925 MB. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUE... WITH SAMPSON AND SE WAYNE COUNTIES SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS OF AROUND 60 TO 66... WITH
THE WEST HALF SEEING MUCH MORE SUN THAN THE EASTERN HALF. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF AND NRN FL
LATE TUE... THEN TRACK TO THE NNE TO A POSITION OFF THE SRN NC COAST
BY 12Z WED AS CENTRAL PRESSURES DROP 5 MB. STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING UPPER JET
CORE (TO AROUND 200 KTS) FROM CENTRAL NC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASE LIFT FURTHER INLAND... AND WE`LL BEGIN
TO SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS LATE. THIS ALONG WITH RE-MOISTENING OF
THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POPS TUE EVENING/NIGHT... UP TO
CATEGORICAL EAST WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY WEST OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL DPVA WILL BE RATHER MEAGER. THE COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS BRINGS ABOUT A
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE NON-LIQUID PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. EXAMINING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL
BE RATHER HIGH INITIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPS (AND WET BULBS) WELL
ABOVE FREEZING... AND THAT BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
SUFFICIENTLY... THE LOWEST THOUSAND FEET IN THE TRIAD SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. AND BY THE TIME THE MARKED COOLING ARRIVES IN THE
LOW LEVELS... WE WILL HAVE ALREADY DRIED OUT ALOFT. SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW WET FLAKES IN THE NW PIEDMONT LATE TUE NIGHT... IT WILL BE
OF ZERO CONSEQUENCE. EXPECT LOWS FROM 36 NW TO 44 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE
THE LOW IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. FOR NOW...
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE ALL LIQUID...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN...MAINLY THE FAR NORTHWEST FOR
THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S. CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL FALL IS VERY LOW AT THIS
POINT AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. DRY AIR
WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND MIXING DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECT MAINLY AROUND 40 DEGREES
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT: THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW WILL COME
ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
IF IT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S...SNOW FLURRIES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE
FASTER GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF
WOULD FAVOR SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL THE S/W
EXITS THE REGION...RAPIDLY CLEARING BEHIND IT. WITH PLENTY OF SUN
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH. CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...FROM MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT INT/GSO THROUGH EARLY
TUE AFTERNOON... FARTHER EAST... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL COME AND GO AT
RDU/RWI/FAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON... AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AT FAY. CIGS AT RDU/FAY/RWI ARE EXPECTED TO THEN LIFT TO
VFR EARLY THIS EVENING...  ALTHOUGH THEY MAY HOLD MVFR LONGER AT
FAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8-
15 KTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SWING AROUND TO WEST THEN NW AND N LATE TONIGHT (BETWEEN 06Z AND
11Z) FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT... DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND MOIST
AIR NEAR THE GROUND... IFR/LIFR STRATUS MAY FORM AT RWI/FAY IN THE
HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 13Z TUE WITH NORTH
WINDS AND ANY CIGS ABOVE 3K FT AGL.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... ONCE THE FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST TUE
MORNING... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN FL EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON... AND BEGIN TO TRACK NE ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. THE BULK
OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM -- ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS -- IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 00Z WED (EARLY TUE
EVENING)... SPREADING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC TUE
EVENING... LASTING THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM SW TO NE
BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK AND GUSTY FROM THE
NNE AT FAY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TRACKS UP THE NC COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN LATE
WED AFTERNOON... HOWEVER PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WED EVENING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER MAINLY TO INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 242030
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... THEN
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY... AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE CAROLINA AND MIDATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FROM
THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

WARM AIR PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL NC... WITH HIGHS SO FAR IN THE LOW
70S... ALONG WITH ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR IN THE EAST WHERE PW VALUES
EXCEED 1.7". STEADY HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 ALONG WITH MASS CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH IT MOST CERTAINLY WON`T BE RAINING THE ENTIRE
TIME. WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS IN THE EAST TONIGHT... WITH NOTHING
WEST WHERE THE COLUMN REMAINS FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE. THE COLD FRONT
NOW ANALYZED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT...
DROP IN TEMPS AND DEWPOINT... AND PERHAPS A WESTWARD BUMP OF THE
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP... BUT LITTLE ELSE GIVEN THE GENERALLY DRY AIR
IN PLACE AND LACK OF FORCING FEATURES INCLUDING A FLAT SW MID LEVEL
FLOW. CURRENT SW WINDS HAVE GUSTED SPORADICALLY TO 20-25 KT... BUT SO
FAR THESE HIGHER GUSTS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY INFREQUENT. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A LOSS OF MIXING. EXPECT
LOWS FROM THE MID 40S IN THE TRIAD TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR COASTAL NC THROUGH TUE... AS THE
STEERING FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND CEASES ITS
EASTWARD PUSH. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS JUST OFF
THE COAST TUE MORNING... WHILE THE ELEVATED PW VALUES ACCORDINGLY
GET BUMPED EASTWARD AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE A QUIET
AND DRY DAY WITH JUST SOME MID CLOUDS STREAKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE TRADITIONAL MODELS AS
WELL AS THE HI-RES WRF NMM/ARW AND THE SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST
THAT OUR FAR SE CWA WILL STILL SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... LIKELY FALLING FROM AN ELEVATED CLOUD BASE WHICH WILL CUT
DOWN ON QPF AS ANY RAIN SHOULD FALL THROUGH A SOMEWHAT DRY LAYER
FROM 800-925 MB. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUE... WITH SAMPSON AND SE WAYNE COUNTIES SEEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. EXPECT HIGHS OF AROUND 60 TO 66... WITH
THE WEST HALF SEEING MUCH MORE SUN THAN THE EASTERN HALF. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF AND NRN FL
LATE TUE... THEN TRACK TO THE NNE TO A POSITION OFF THE SRN NC COAST
BY 12Z WED AS CENTRAL PRESSURES DROP 5 MB. STRENGTHENING UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING UPPER JET
CORE (TO AROUND 200 KTS) FROM CENTRAL NC TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASE LIFT FURTHER INLAND... AND WE`LL BEGIN
TO SEE DECENT HEIGHT FALLS LATE. THIS ALONG WITH RE-MOISTENING OF
THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POPS TUE EVENING/NIGHT... UP TO
CATEGORICAL EAST WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY WEST OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL DPVA WILL BE RATHER MEAGER. THE COOLER AIR
ADVECTING IN ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS BRINGS ABOUT A
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE NON-LIQUID PRECIP LATE TONIGHT. EXAMINING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT THE CLOUD BASES WILL
BE RATHER HIGH INITIALLY WITH SURFACE TEMPS (AND WET BULBS) WELL
ABOVE FREEZING... AND THAT BY THE TIME THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN
SUFFICIENTLY... THE LOWEST THOUSAND FEET IN THE TRIAD SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING. AND BY THE TIME THE MARKED COOLING ARRIVES IN THE
LOW LEVELS... WE WILL HAVE ALREADY DRIED OUT ALOFT. SO WHILE WE MAY
SEE A FEW WET FLAKES IN THE NW PIEDMONT LATE TUE NIGHT... IT WILL BE
OF ZERO CONSEQUENCE. EXPECT LOWS FROM 36 NW TO 44 SE. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE
THE LOW IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. FOR NOW...
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE ALL LIQUID...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN...MAINLY THE FAR NORTHWEST FOR
THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S. CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL FALL IS VERY LOW AT THIS
POINT AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. DRY AIR
WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND MIXING DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECT MAINLY AROUND 40 DEGREES
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT: THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW WILL COME
ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
IF IT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S...SNOW FLURRIES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE
FASTER GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF
WOULD FAVOR SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL THE S/W
EXITS THE REGION...RAPIDLY CLEARING BEHIND IT. WITH PLENTY OF SUN
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH. CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...FROM MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT INT/GSO THROUGH EARLY
TUE AFTERNOON... FARTHER EAST... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL COME AND GO AT
RDU/RWI/FAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON... AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AT FAY. CIGS AT RDU/FAY/RWI ARE EXPECTED TO THEN LIFT TO
VFR EARLY THIS EVENING...  ALTHOUGH THEY MAY HOLD MVFR LONGER AT
FAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8-
15 KTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SWING AROUND TO WEST THEN NW AND N LATE TONIGHT (BETWEEN 06Z AND
11Z) FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT... DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND MOIST
AIR NEAR THE GROUND... IFR/LIFR STRATUS MAY FORM AT RWI/FAY IN THE
HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 13Z TUE WITH NORTH
WINDS AND ANY CIGS ABOVE 3K FT AGL.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... ONCE THE FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST TUE
MORNING... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN FL EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON... AND BEGIN TO TRACK NE ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. THE BULK
OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM -- ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS -- IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 00Z WED (EARLY TUE
EVENING)... SPREADING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC TUE
EVENING... LASTING THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM SW TO NE
BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK AND GUSTY FROM THE
NNE AT FAY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TRACKS UP THE NC COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN LATE
WED AFTERNOON... HOWEVER PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WED EVENING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER MAINLY TO INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 241952
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
252 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING...THEN
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TUESDAY...AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM MONDAY...

REST OF TODAY: VERY MILD TEMPS AND BLUSTERY WINDS REMAIN THE STORY
TODAY... WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS. AFTER A WARM START WITH TEMPS HAVING HELD STEADY OR RISEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT... LATEST READINGS ARE FIRMLY IN THE 60S
EVERYWHERE... AND DESPITE THE VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
(GREATEST/THICKEST CLOUD COVER OVER THE SRN AND ERN CWA)... WE ARE
POISED TO PEAK IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE. THIS IS A SLIGHT DOWNWARD
BUMP FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS... DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE
ANTICIPATED PARTIAL CLOUD COVER (AT LEAST) AND CURRENT PACE OF
TEMPS... WHICH WILL BE STUNTED TO A 1-2 CATEGORY CLIMB BY THE CLOUD
COVER. 20-30% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA... WITH THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH
RADAR TRENDS... BRINGING THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS NOW
OVER SRN/ERN GA INTO ERN SC TOWARD THE NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
NAM DEPICTS MUCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG BRUSHING OUR ERN CWA... HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS TO BE OVERDONE AS ANY LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC LIFT SHOULD BE CAPPED BELOW THE -10C LEVEL... AND THE
GFS/RAP LOOK MORE REASONABLE WITH JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST
IN THE SE. HAVE HELD ONTO A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER HERE... BUT
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE MERELY SHOWERS. REGARDING WINDS... THE ONSET OF
MIXING HAS ALREADY LED TO GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS IN SEVERAL SPOTS...
AND FORECAST SOUNDING SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TODAY RANGING FROM
AROUND 20 KTS (23 MPH) IN THE SE TO 25 KTS (29 KTS) IN THE NW WHERE
THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD BE DEEPER. -GIH

TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A WEST-NW DIRECTION.
UPSTAIRS...850MB TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...INITIAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET OR DELAYED. THUS WILL RAISE MIN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MIN TEMPS AROUND 50 NW
TO NEAR 60 FAR SE. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TUESDAY...SURFACE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TEH STALLED OFF THE GA COAST LATES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION TOWARD SUNSET. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING OUR REGION COUPLED WITH
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS MAY ALLOW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER PRIOR TO SUNSET.  MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED ONSET
OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER SO WILL FOLLOW
TREND OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NW TO MID 60S SE. IF CLOUDS
THICKER/LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED....MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MID
50S NW-LOWER 60S SE MAY BE CLOSER TO REALITY. -WSS

TUESDAY NIGHT: S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
U.S. WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND SHIFT
EASTWARD AND HELP TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG/NEAR THE MID-
ATLANTIC COASTLINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.... SPREADING PRECIP
ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE... A 1025
MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER... THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL NOT DELIVER ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR (ULTRA LOW DEWPOINTS...
INSTEAD THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
30S). WITHOUT THE ULTRA LOW DEWPOINTS IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW... IF ANY AT ALL...
ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WARMER WITH THE THERMAL
PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT A
POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER... WE WILL BEGIN TO LOSS SATURATION IN THE KEY -
10 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS LAYER OF THE ATMO. THUS... HAVE REMOVED
SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S SE. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE
THE LOW IS IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN. FOR NOW...
EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE ALL LIQUID...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN...MAINLY THE FAR NORTHWEST FOR
THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S. CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL FALL IS VERY LOW AT THIS
POINT AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. DRY AIR
WILL BEGIN ADVECTING IN ALOFT AND MIXING DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION...HOWEVER SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECT MAINLY AROUND 40 DEGREES
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT: THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW WILL COME
ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE MODELS
INDICATE PRECIPITATION BEING GENERATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
IF IT OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S...SNOW FLURRIES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. THE
FASTER GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR FLURRIES...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF
WOULD FAVOR SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES UNTIL THE S/W
EXITS THE REGION...RAPIDLY CLEARING BEHIND IT. WITH PLENTY OF SUN
EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH. CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY AND
LINGER OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND...
HOWEVER IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STALLED WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...FROM MID 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...TO UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT INT/GSO THROUGH EARLY
TUE AFTERNOON... FARTHER EAST... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL COME AND GO AT
RDU/RWI/FAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON... AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AT FAY. CIGS AT RDU/FAY/RWI ARE EXPECTED TO THEN LIFT TO
VFR EARLY THIS EVENING...  ALTHOUGH THEY MAY HOLD MVFR LONGER AT
FAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8-
15 KTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SWING AROUND TO WEST THEN NW AND N LATE TONIGHT (BETWEEN 06Z AND
11Z) FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT... DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND MOIST
AIR NEAR THE GROUND... IFR/LIFR STRATUS MAY FORM AT RWI/FAY IN THE
HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 13Z TUE WITH NORTH
WINDS AND ANY CIGS ABOVE 3K FT AGL.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... ONCE THE FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST TUE
MORNING... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN FL EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON... AND BEGIN TO TRACK NE ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. THE BULK
OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM -- ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS -- IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 00Z WED (EARLY TUE
EVENING)... SPREADING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC TUE
EVENING... LASTING THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM SW TO NE
BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK AND GUSTY FROM THE
NNE AT FAY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TRACKS UP THE NC COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN LATE
WED AFTERNOON... HOWEVER PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WED EVENING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER MAINLY TO INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 241816
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
115 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... THEN
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TUESDAY... AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM MONDAY...

REST OF TODAY: VERY MILD TEMPS AND BLUSTERY WINDS REMAIN THE STORY
TODAY... WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS. AFTER A WARM START WITH TEMPS HAVING HELD STEADY OR RISEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT... LATEST READINGS ARE FIRMLY IN THE 60S
EVERYWHERE... AND DESPITE THE VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
(GREATEST/THICKEST CLOUD COVER OVER THE SRN AND ERN CWA)... WE ARE
POISED TO PEAK IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE. THIS IS A SLIGHT DOWNWARD
BUMP FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS... DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE
ANTICIPATED PARTIAL CLOUD COVER (AT LEAST) AND CURRENT PACE OF
TEMPS... WHICH WILL BE STUNTED TO A 1-2 CATEGORY CLIMB BY THE CLOUD
COVER. 20-30% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA... WITH THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH
RADAR TRENDS... BRINGING THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS NOW
OVER SRN/ERN GA INTO ERN SC TOWARD THE NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
NAM DEPICTS MUCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG BRUSHING OUR ERN CWA... HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS TO BE OVERDONE AS ANY LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC LIFT SHOULD BE CAPPED BELOW THE -10C LEVEL... AND THE
GFS/RAP LOOK MORE REASONABLE WITH JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST
IN THE SE. HAVE HELD ONTO A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER HERE... BUT
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE MERELY SHOWERS. REGARDING WINDS... THE ONSET OF
MIXING HAS ALREADY LED TO GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS IN SEVERAL SPOTS...
AND FORECAST SOUNDING SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TODAY RANGING FROM
AROUND 20 KTS (23 MPH) IN THE SE TO 25 KTS (29 KTS) IN THE NW WHERE
THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD BE DEEPER. -GIH

TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A WEST-NW DIRECTION.
UPSTAIRS...850MB TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...INITIAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET OR DELAYED. THUS WILL RAISE MIN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MIN TEMPS AROUND 50 NW
TO NEAR 60 FAR SE. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TUESDAY...SURFACE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TEH STALLED OFF THE GA COAST LATES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION TOWARD SUNSET. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING OUR REGION COUPLED WITH
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS MAY ALLOW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER PRIOR TO SUNSET.  MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED ONSET
OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER SO WILL FOLLOW
TREND OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NW TO MID 60S SE. IF CLOUDS
THICKER/LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED....MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MID
50S NW-LOWER 60S SE MAY BE CLOSER TO REALITY. -WSS

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES AND SHIFT EASTWARD AND HELP TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ALONG THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG/NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY....
SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE... A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL NOT DELIVER ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR (ULTRA
LOW DEWPOINTS... INSTEAD THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE 30S). WITHOUT THE ULTRA LOW DEWPOINTS IT APPEARS THAT
WE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW... IF
ANY AT ALL... ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WARMER WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER... WE WILL BEGIN TO LOSS SATURATION
IN THE KEY -10 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS LAYER OF THE ATMO. THUS...
HAVE REMOVED SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY... EXPECT IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING... WHERE WE WOULD STILL
NEED HIGH PRECIP RATES TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TO
OVERCOME AROUND A 3 KFT PLUS ABOVE FREEZING LAYER (SFC-3KFT THAT
IS). REGARDLESS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ABOVE TEMPS AND IF WE DO
INDEED SEE ANY SNOW MIX IN WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO
LOWER 40S SE. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS... WILL ONLY SHOW HIGH TEMPS AROUND 40 N/NW TO THE
UPPER 40S SE.

A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INTO THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE CORE OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL NOT DIVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO BRING ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP TOO OUR REGION. THUS... WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES/FURRIES OR BRIEF SHOWER
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FLAT ACROSS OUR AREA... WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING NUDGING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... BEFORE WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNTIL THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...
EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT INT/GSO THROUGH EARLY
TUE AFTERNOON... FARTHER EAST... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL COME AND GO AT
RDU/RWI/FAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON... AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AT FAY. CIGS AT RDU/FAY/RWI ARE EXPECTED TO THEN LIFT TO
VFR EARLY THIS EVENING...  ALTHOUGH THEY MAY HOLD MVFR LONGER AT
FAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8-
15 KTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SWING AROUND TO WEST THEN NW AND N LATE TONIGHT (BETWEEN 06Z AND
11Z) FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT... DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND MOIST
AIR NEAR THE GROUND... IFR/LIFR STRATUS MAY FORM AT RWI/FAY IN THE
HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 13Z TUE WITH NORTH
WINDS AND ANY CIGS ABOVE 3K FT AGL.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... ONCE THE FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST TUE
MORNING... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN FL EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON... AND BEGIN TO TRACK NE ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. THE BULK
OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM -- ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS -- IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 00Z WED (EARLY TUE
EVENING)... SPREADING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC TUE
EVENING... LASTING THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM SW TO NE
BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK AND GUSTY FROM THE
NNE AT FAY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TRACKS UP THE NC COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN LATE
WED AFTERNOON... HOWEVER PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WED EVENING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER MAINLY TO INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 241816
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
115 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... THEN
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TUESDAY... AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM MONDAY...

REST OF TODAY: VERY MILD TEMPS AND BLUSTERY WINDS REMAIN THE STORY
TODAY... WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS. AFTER A WARM START WITH TEMPS HAVING HELD STEADY OR RISEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT... LATEST READINGS ARE FIRMLY IN THE 60S
EVERYWHERE... AND DESPITE THE VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
(GREATEST/THICKEST CLOUD COVER OVER THE SRN AND ERN CWA)... WE ARE
POISED TO PEAK IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE. THIS IS A SLIGHT DOWNWARD
BUMP FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS... DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE
ANTICIPATED PARTIAL CLOUD COVER (AT LEAST) AND CURRENT PACE OF
TEMPS... WHICH WILL BE STUNTED TO A 1-2 CATEGORY CLIMB BY THE CLOUD
COVER. 20-30% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA... WITH THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH
RADAR TRENDS... BRINGING THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS NOW
OVER SRN/ERN GA INTO ERN SC TOWARD THE NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
NAM DEPICTS MUCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG BRUSHING OUR ERN CWA... HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS TO BE OVERDONE AS ANY LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC LIFT SHOULD BE CAPPED BELOW THE -10C LEVEL... AND THE
GFS/RAP LOOK MORE REASONABLE WITH JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST
IN THE SE. HAVE HELD ONTO A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER HERE... BUT
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE MERELY SHOWERS. REGARDING WINDS... THE ONSET OF
MIXING HAS ALREADY LED TO GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS IN SEVERAL SPOTS...
AND FORECAST SOUNDING SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TODAY RANGING FROM
AROUND 20 KTS (23 MPH) IN THE SE TO 25 KTS (29 KTS) IN THE NW WHERE
THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD BE DEEPER. -GIH

TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A WEST-NW DIRECTION.
UPSTAIRS...850MB TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...INITIAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET OR DELAYED. THUS WILL RAISE MIN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MIN TEMPS AROUND 50 NW
TO NEAR 60 FAR SE. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TUESDAY...SURFACE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TEH STALLED OFF THE GA COAST LATES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION TOWARD SUNSET. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING OUR REGION COUPLED WITH
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS MAY ALLOW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER PRIOR TO SUNSET.  MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED ONSET
OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER SO WILL FOLLOW
TREND OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NW TO MID 60S SE. IF CLOUDS
THICKER/LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED....MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MID
50S NW-LOWER 60S SE MAY BE CLOSER TO REALITY. -WSS

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES AND SHIFT EASTWARD AND HELP TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ALONG THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG/NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY....
SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE... A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL NOT DELIVER ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR (ULTRA
LOW DEWPOINTS... INSTEAD THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE 30S). WITHOUT THE ULTRA LOW DEWPOINTS IT APPEARS THAT
WE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW... IF
ANY AT ALL... ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WARMER WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER... WE WILL BEGIN TO LOSS SATURATION
IN THE KEY -10 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS LAYER OF THE ATMO. THUS...
HAVE REMOVED SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY... EXPECT IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING... WHERE WE WOULD STILL
NEED HIGH PRECIP RATES TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TO
OVERCOME AROUND A 3 KFT PLUS ABOVE FREEZING LAYER (SFC-3KFT THAT
IS). REGARDLESS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ABOVE TEMPS AND IF WE DO
INDEED SEE ANY SNOW MIX IN WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO
LOWER 40S SE. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS... WILL ONLY SHOW HIGH TEMPS AROUND 40 N/NW TO THE
UPPER 40S SE.

A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INTO THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE CORE OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL NOT DIVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO BRING ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP TOO OUR REGION. THUS... WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES/FURRIES OR BRIEF SHOWER
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FLAT ACROSS OUR AREA... WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING NUDGING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... BEFORE WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNTIL THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...
EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY...

WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT INT/GSO THROUGH EARLY
TUE AFTERNOON... FARTHER EAST... MVFR CONDITIONS WILL COME AND GO AT
RDU/RWI/FAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON... AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AT FAY. CIGS AT RDU/FAY/RWI ARE EXPECTED TO THEN LIFT TO
VFR EARLY THIS EVENING...  ALTHOUGH THEY MAY HOLD MVFR LONGER AT
FAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 8-
15 KTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SWING AROUND TO WEST THEN NW AND N LATE TONIGHT (BETWEEN 06Z AND
11Z) FROM WEST TO EAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT... DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND MOIST
AIR NEAR THE GROUND... IFR/LIFR STRATUS MAY FORM AT RWI/FAY IN THE
HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH AT
THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AFTER 13Z TUE WITH NORTH
WINDS AND ANY CIGS ABOVE 3K FT AGL.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE... ONCE THE FRONT MOVES TO THE COAST TUE
MORNING... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN FL EARLY TUE
AFTERNOON... AND BEGIN TO TRACK NE ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. THE BULK
OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM -- ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS -- IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER 00Z WED (EARLY TUE
EVENING)... SPREADING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC TUE
EVENING... LASTING THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM SW TO NE
BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME BRISK AND GUSTY FROM THE
NNE AT FAY TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
TRACKS UP THE NC COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN LATE
WED AFTERNOON... HOWEVER PASSAGE OF A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WED EVENING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER MAINLY TO INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 241505
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1005 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... THEN
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TUESDAY... AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM MONDAY...

REST OF TODAY: VERY MILD TEMPS AND BLUSTERY WINDS REMAIN THE STORY
TODAY... WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS. AFTER A WARM START WITH TEMPS HAVING HELD STEADY OR RISEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT... LATEST READINGS ARE FIRMLY IN THE 60S
EVERYWHERE... AND DESPITE THE VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
(GREATEST/THICKEST CLOUD COVER OVER THE SRN AND ERN CWA)... WE ARE
POISED TO PEAK IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE. THIS IS A SLIGHT DOWNWARD
BUMP FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS... DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE
ANTICIPATED PARTIAL CLOUD COVER (AT LEAST) AND CURRENT PACE OF
TEMPS... WHICH WILL BE STUNTED TO A 1-2 CATEGORY CLIMB BY THE CLOUD
COVER. 20-30% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA... WITH THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH
RADAR TRENDS... BRINGING THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS NOW
OVER SRN/ERN GA INTO ERN SC TOWARD THE NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
NAM DEPICTS MUCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG BRUSHING OUR ERN CWA... HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS TO BE OVERDONE AS ANY LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC LIFT SHOULD BE CAPPED BELOW THE -10C LEVEL... AND THE
GFS/RAP LOOK MORE REASONABLE WITH JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST
IN THE SE. HAVE HELD ONTO A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER HERE... BUT
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE MERELY SHOWERS. REGARDING WINDS... THE ONSET OF
MIXING HAS ALREADY LED TO GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS IN SEVERAL SPOTS...
AND FORECAST SOUNDING SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TODAY RANGING FROM
AROUND 20 KTS (23 MPH) IN THE SE TO 25 KTS (29 KTS) IN THE NW WHERE
THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD BE DEEPER. -GIH

TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A WEST-NW DIRECTION.
UPSTAIRS...850MB TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...INITIAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET OR DELAYED. THUS WILL RAISE MIN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MIN TEMPS AROUND 50 NW
TO NEAR 60 FAR SE. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TUESDAY...SURFACE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TEH STALLED OFF THE GA COAST LATES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION TOWARD SUNSET. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING OUR REGION COUPLED WITH
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS MAY ALLOW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER PRIOR TO SUNSET.  MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED ONSET
OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER SO WILL FOLLOW
TREND OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NW TO MID 60S SE. IF CLOUDS
THICKER/LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED....MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MID
50S NW-LOWER 60S SE MAY BE CLOSER TO REALITY. -WSS

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES AND SHIFT EASTWARD AND HELP TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ALONG THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG/NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY....
SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE... A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL NOT DELIVER ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR (ULTRA
LOW DEWPOINTS... INSTEAD THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE 30S). WITHOUT THE ULTRA LOW DEWPOINTS IT APPEARS THAT
WE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW... IF
ANY AT ALL... ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WARMER WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER... WE WILL BEGIN TO LOSS SATURATION
IN THE KEY -10 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS LAYER OF THE ATMO. THUS...
HAVE REMOVED SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY... EXPECT IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING... WHERE WE WOULD STILL
NEED HIGH PRECIP RATES TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TO
OVERCOME AROUND A 3 KFT PLUS ABOVE FREEZING LAYER (SFC-3KFT THAT
IS). REGARDLESS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ABOVE TEMPS AND IF WE DO
INDEED SEE ANY SNOW MIX IN WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO
LOWER 40S SE. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS... WILL ONLY SHOW HIGH TEMPS AROUND 40 N/NW TO THE
UPPER 40S SE.

A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INTO THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE CORE OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL NOT DIVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO BRING ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP TOO OUR REGION. THUS... WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES/FURRIES OR BRIEF SHOWER
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FLAT ACROSS OUR AREA... WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING NUDGING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... BEFORE WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNTIL THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...
EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 622 AM MONDAY...

A WARM MOIST SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THIS MORNING.  CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO THE VFR CATEGORY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A
SW WIND WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED
AFTER DAYBREAK WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z.

A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER SECTIONS OF OUR
COASTAL PLAIN...MAINLY JUST EAST OF KFAY AND KRWI.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...USHERING IN A
STABLE AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
RAIN. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 241505
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1005 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARM TEMPERATURES
TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING... THEN
SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TUESDAY... AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM MONDAY...

REST OF TODAY: VERY MILD TEMPS AND BLUSTERY WINDS REMAIN THE STORY
TODAY... WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS. AFTER A WARM START WITH TEMPS HAVING HELD STEADY OR RISEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT... LATEST READINGS ARE FIRMLY IN THE 60S
EVERYWHERE... AND DESPITE THE VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
(GREATEST/THICKEST CLOUD COVER OVER THE SRN AND ERN CWA)... WE ARE
POISED TO PEAK IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE. THIS IS A SLIGHT DOWNWARD
BUMP FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS... DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE
ANTICIPATED PARTIAL CLOUD COVER (AT LEAST) AND CURRENT PACE OF
TEMPS... WHICH WILL BE STUNTED TO A 1-2 CATEGORY CLIMB BY THE CLOUD
COVER. 20-30% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF THE CWA... WITH THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE IN LINE WITH
RADAR TRENDS... BRINGING THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS NOW
OVER SRN/ERN GA INTO ERN SC TOWARD THE NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
NAM DEPICTS MUCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG BRUSHING OUR ERN CWA... HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS TO BE OVERDONE AS ANY LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC LIFT SHOULD BE CAPPED BELOW THE -10C LEVEL... AND THE
GFS/RAP LOOK MORE REASONABLE WITH JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AT MOST
IN THE SE. HAVE HELD ONTO A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER HERE... BUT
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE MERELY SHOWERS. REGARDING WINDS... THE ONSET OF
MIXING HAS ALREADY LED TO GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS IN SEVERAL SPOTS...
AND FORECAST SOUNDING SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TODAY RANGING FROM
AROUND 20 KTS (23 MPH) IN THE SE TO 25 KTS (29 KTS) IN THE NW WHERE
THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD BE DEEPER. -GIH

TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A WEST-NW DIRECTION.
UPSTAIRS...850MB TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...INITIAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET OR DELAYED. THUS WILL RAISE MIN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MIN TEMPS AROUND 50 NW
TO NEAR 60 FAR SE. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TUESDAY...SURFACE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TEH STALLED OFF THE GA COAST LATES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION TOWARD SUNSET. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING OUR REGION COUPLED WITH
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS MAY ALLOW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER PRIOR TO SUNSET.  MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED ONSET
OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER SO WILL FOLLOW
TREND OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NW TO MID 60S SE. IF CLOUDS
THICKER/LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED....MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MID
50S NW-LOWER 60S SE MAY BE CLOSER TO REALITY. -WSS

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES AND SHIFT EASTWARD AND HELP TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ALONG THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG/NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY....
SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE... A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL NOT DELIVER ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR (ULTRA
LOW DEWPOINTS... INSTEAD THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE 30S). WITHOUT THE ULTRA LOW DEWPOINTS IT APPEARS THAT
WE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW... IF
ANY AT ALL... ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WARMER WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER... WE WILL BEGIN TO LOSS SATURATION
IN THE KEY -10 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS LAYER OF THE ATMO. THUS...
HAVE REMOVED SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY... EXPECT IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING... WHERE WE WOULD STILL
NEED HIGH PRECIP RATES TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TO
OVERCOME AROUND A 3 KFT PLUS ABOVE FREEZING LAYER (SFC-3KFT THAT
IS). REGARDLESS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ABOVE TEMPS AND IF WE DO
INDEED SEE ANY SNOW MIX IN WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO
LOWER 40S SE. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS... WILL ONLY SHOW HIGH TEMPS AROUND 40 N/NW TO THE
UPPER 40S SE.

A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INTO THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE CORE OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL NOT DIVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO BRING ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP TOO OUR REGION. THUS... WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES/FURRIES OR BRIEF SHOWER
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FLAT ACROSS OUR AREA... WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING NUDGING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... BEFORE WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNTIL THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...
EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 622 AM MONDAY...

A WARM MOIST SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THIS MORNING.  CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO THE VFR CATEGORY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A
SW WIND WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED
AFTER DAYBREAK WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z.

A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER SECTIONS OF OUR
COASTAL PLAIN...MAINLY JUST EAST OF KFAY AND KRWI.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...USHERING IN A
STABLE AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
RAIN. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 241122
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
622 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TODAY...WARM AIR MASS HAS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC WITH PRE DAWN TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S...COMPARABLE TO OUR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MATURE CYCLONE LIFTING
NWD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THIS MORNING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED DRY
SLOT PROGRESSING NWD ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 8K-
10K HAS LIKELY DRIED OUT APPRECIABLY COMPARED TO THE 00Z GSO
SOUNDING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND HIGH
TEMPS...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND STRENGTH
OF WIND GUSTS LATER TODAY.

LOW LEVEL FLOW SW WILL PERSIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WELL
TO OUR WEST. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL WARM AIR OVER OUR
REGION. IF BREAKS IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS OCCUR (VERY
PLAUSIBLE)...THE PARTIAL SUN WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE 70S. FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S CONSIDERING THAT TEMPS STARTING OUT IN
THE 60S. WHILE THESE HIGH TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...THEY ARE
STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW RECORD HIGHS FOR THE 24TH.

SW 850MB FLOW EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS 50-55KTS OVER THE REGION
TODAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WE WILL MIX THAT HIGH. MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL OFF THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAX WIND GUSTS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30KTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IF
SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE WERE TO OCCUR...GUSTS AROUND 35KTS OR SLIGHTLY
STRONGER COULD BE REALIZED.

APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. KINEMATICS STILL RATHER IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
INSTABILITY MARGINAL AT BEST. IF ENOUGH HEATING WERE TO OCCUR...THEN
WE WOULD HAVE A BETTER PROBABILITY OF A STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OVER OUR FAR EAST-SE COUNTIES CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THUS WILL
INCREASE POP TO HIGH CHANCE OVER THE FAR SE COUNTIES...TRENDING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE TO NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE TRIANGLE AREA.

TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A WEST-NW DIRECTION.
UPSTAIRS...850MB TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...INITIAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET OR DELAYED. THUS WILL RAISE MIN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MIN TEMPS AROUND 50 NW
TO NEAR 60 FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TUESDAY...SURFACE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TEH STALLED OFF THE GA COAST LATES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION TOWARD SUNSET. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING OUR REGION COUPLED WITH
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS MAY ALLOW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER PRIOR TO SUNSET.  MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED ONSET
OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER SO WILL FOLLOW
TREND OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NW TO MID 60S SE. IF CLOUDS
THICKER/LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED....MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MID
50S NW-LOWER 60S SE MAY BE CLOSER TO REALITY. -WSS

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES AND SHIFT EASTWARD AND HELP TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ALONG THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG/NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY....
SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE... A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL NOT DELIVER ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR (ULTRA
LOW DEWPOINTS... INSTEAD THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE 30S). WITHOUT THE ULTRA LOW DEWPOINTS IT APPEARS THAT
WE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW... IF
ANY AT ALL... ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WARMER WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER... WE WILL BEGIN TO LOSS SATURATION
IN THE KEY -10 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS LAYER OF THE ATMO. THUS...
HAVE REMOVED SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY... EXPECT IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING... WHERE WE WOULD STILL
NEED HIGH PRECIP RATES TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TO
OVERCOME AROUND A 3 KFT PLUS ABOVE FREEZING LAYER (SFC-3KFT THAT
IS). REGARDLESS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ABOVE TEMPS AND IF WE DO
INDEED SEE ANY SNOW MIX IN WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO
LOWER 40S SE. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS... WILL ONLY SHOW HIGH TEMPS AROUND 40 N/NW TO THE
UPPER 40S SE.

A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INTO THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE CORE OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL NOT DIVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO BRING ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP TOO OUR REGION. THUS... WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES/FURRIES OR BRIEF SHOWER
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FLAT ACROSS OUR AREA... WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING NUDGING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... BEFORE WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNTIL THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...
EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 622 AM MONDAY...

A WARM MOIST SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THIS MORNING.  CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO THE VFR CATEGORY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A
SW WIND WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED
AFTER DAYBREAK WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z.

A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER SECTIONS OF OUR
COASTAL PLAIN...MAINLY JUST EAST OF KFAY AND KRWI.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...USHERING IN A
STABLE AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
RAIN. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 241122
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
622 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TODAY...WARM AIR MASS HAS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC WITH PRE DAWN TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S...COMPARABLE TO OUR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MATURE CYCLONE LIFTING
NWD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THIS MORNING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED DRY
SLOT PROGRESSING NWD ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 8K-
10K HAS LIKELY DRIED OUT APPRECIABLY COMPARED TO THE 00Z GSO
SOUNDING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND HIGH
TEMPS...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND STRENGTH
OF WIND GUSTS LATER TODAY.

LOW LEVEL FLOW SW WILL PERSIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WELL
TO OUR WEST. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL WARM AIR OVER OUR
REGION. IF BREAKS IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS OCCUR (VERY
PLAUSIBLE)...THE PARTIAL SUN WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE 70S. FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S CONSIDERING THAT TEMPS STARTING OUT IN
THE 60S. WHILE THESE HIGH TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...THEY ARE
STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW RECORD HIGHS FOR THE 24TH.

SW 850MB FLOW EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS 50-55KTS OVER THE REGION
TODAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WE WILL MIX THAT HIGH. MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL OFF THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAX WIND GUSTS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30KTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IF
SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE WERE TO OCCUR...GUSTS AROUND 35KTS OR SLIGHTLY
STRONGER COULD BE REALIZED.

APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. KINEMATICS STILL RATHER IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
INSTABILITY MARGINAL AT BEST. IF ENOUGH HEATING WERE TO OCCUR...THEN
WE WOULD HAVE A BETTER PROBABILITY OF A STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OVER OUR FAR EAST-SE COUNTIES CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THUS WILL
INCREASE POP TO HIGH CHANCE OVER THE FAR SE COUNTIES...TRENDING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE TO NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE TRIANGLE AREA.

TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A WEST-NW DIRECTION.
UPSTAIRS...850MB TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...INITIAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET OR DELAYED. THUS WILL RAISE MIN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MIN TEMPS AROUND 50 NW
TO NEAR 60 FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TUESDAY...SURFACE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TEH STALLED OFF THE GA COAST LATES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION TOWARD SUNSET. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING OUR REGION COUPLED WITH
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS MAY ALLOW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER PRIOR TO SUNSET.  MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED ONSET
OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER SO WILL FOLLOW
TREND OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NW TO MID 60S SE. IF CLOUDS
THICKER/LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED....MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MID
50S NW-LOWER 60S SE MAY BE CLOSER TO REALITY. -WSS

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES AND SHIFT EASTWARD AND HELP TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ALONG THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG/NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY....
SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE... A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL NOT DELIVER ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR (ULTRA
LOW DEWPOINTS... INSTEAD THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE 30S). WITHOUT THE ULTRA LOW DEWPOINTS IT APPEARS THAT
WE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW... IF
ANY AT ALL... ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WARMER WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER... WE WILL BEGIN TO LOSS SATURATION
IN THE KEY -10 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS LAYER OF THE ATMO. THUS...
HAVE REMOVED SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY... EXPECT IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING... WHERE WE WOULD STILL
NEED HIGH PRECIP RATES TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TO
OVERCOME AROUND A 3 KFT PLUS ABOVE FREEZING LAYER (SFC-3KFT THAT
IS). REGARDLESS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ABOVE TEMPS AND IF WE DO
INDEED SEE ANY SNOW MIX IN WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO
LOWER 40S SE. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS... WILL ONLY SHOW HIGH TEMPS AROUND 40 N/NW TO THE
UPPER 40S SE.

A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INTO THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE CORE OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL NOT DIVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO BRING ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP TOO OUR REGION. THUS... WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES/FURRIES OR BRIEF SHOWER
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FLAT ACROSS OUR AREA... WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING NUDGING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... BEFORE WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNTIL THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...
EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 622 AM MONDAY...

A WARM MOIST SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THIS MORNING.  CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
INTO THE VFR CATEGORY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A
SW WIND WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED
AFTER DAYBREAK WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30-35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z.

A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER SECTIONS OF OUR
COASTAL PLAIN...MAINLY JUST EAST OF KFAY AND KRWI.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT...USHERING IN A
STABLE AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
RAIN. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240822
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TODAY...WARM AIR MASS HAS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC WITH PRE DAWN TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S...COMPARABLE TO OUR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MATURE CYCLONE LIFTING
NWD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THIS MORNING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED DRY
SLOT PROGRESSING NWD ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 8K-
10K HAS LIKELY DRIED OUT APPRECIABLY COMPARED TO THE 00Z GSO
SOUNDING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND HIGH
TEMPS...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND STRENGTH
OF WIND GUSTS LATER TODAY.

LOW LEVEL FLOW SW WILL PERSIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WELL
TO OUR WEST. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL WARM AIR OVER OUR
REGION. IF BREAKS IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS OCCUR (VERY
PLAUSIBLE)...THE PARTIAL SUN WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE 70S. FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S CONSIDERING THAT TEMPS STARTING OUT IN
THE 60S. WHILE THESE HIGH TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...THEY ARE
STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW RECORD HIGHS FOR THE 24TH.

SW 850MB FLOW EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS 50-55KTS OVER THE REGION
TODAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WE WILL MIX THAT HIGH. MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL OFF THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAX WIND GUSTS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30KTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IF
SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE WERE TO OCCUR...GUSTS AROUND 35KTS OR SLIGHTLY
STRONGER COULD BE REALIZED.

APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. KINEMATICS STILL RATHER IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
INSTABILITY MARGINAL AT BEST. IF ENOUGH HEATING WERE TO OCCUR...THEN
WE WOULD HAVE A BETTER PROBABILITY OF A STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OVER OUR FAR EAST-SE COUNTIES CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THUS WILL
INCREASE POP TO HIGH CHANCE OVER THE FAR SE COUNTIES...TRENDING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE TO NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE TRIANGLE AREA.

TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A WEST-NW DIRECTION.
UPSTAIRS...850MB TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...INITIAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET OR DELAYED. THUS WILL RAISE MIN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MIN TEMPS AROUND 50 NW
TO NEAR 60 FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TUESDAY...SURFACE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TEH STALLED OFF THE GA COAST LATES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION TOWARD SUNSET. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING OUR REGION COUPLED WITH
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS MAY ALLOW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER PRIOR TO SUNSET.  MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED ONSET
OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER SO WILL FOLLOW
TREND OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NW TO MID 60S SE. IF CLOUDS
THICKER/LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED....MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MID
50S NW-LOWER 60S SE MAY BE CLOSER TO REALITY. -WSS

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES AND SHIFT EASTWARD AND HELP TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ALONG THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG/NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY....
SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE... A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL NOT DELIVER ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR (ULTRA
LOW DEWPOINTS... INSTEAD THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE 30S). WITHOUT THE ULTRA LOW DEWPOINTS IT APPEARS THAT
WE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW... IF
ANY AT ALL... ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WARMER WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER... WE WILL BEGIN TO LOSS SATURATION
IN THE KEY -10 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS LAYER OF THE ATMO. THUS...
HAVE REMOVED SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY... EXPECT IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING... WHERE WE WOULD STILL
NEED HIGH PRECIP RATES TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TO
OVERCOME AROUND A 3 KFT PLUS ABOVE FREEZING LAYER (SFC-3KFT THAT
IS). REGARDLESS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ABOVE TEMPS AND IF WE DO
INDEED SEE ANY SNOW MIX IN WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO
LOWER 40S SE. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS... WILL ONLY SHOW HIGH TEMPS AROUND 40 N/NW TO THE
UPPER 40S SE.

A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INTO THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE CORE OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL NOT DIVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO BRING ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP TOO OUR REGION. THUS... WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES/FURRIES OR BRIEF SHOWER
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FLAT ACROSS OUR AREA... WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING NUDGING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... BEFORE WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNTIL THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...
EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM MONDAY...

A WARM MOIST SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY MORNING.  CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE WEST-TO-EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SW WIND WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30-
35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING...USHERING IN A
STABLE AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
RAIN. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 240822
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TODAY...WARM AIR MASS HAS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC WITH PRE DAWN TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S...COMPARABLE TO OUR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MATURE CYCLONE LIFTING
NWD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THIS MORNING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED DRY
SLOT PROGRESSING NWD ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 8K-
10K HAS LIKELY DRIED OUT APPRECIABLY COMPARED TO THE 00Z GSO
SOUNDING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND HIGH
TEMPS...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND STRENGTH
OF WIND GUSTS LATER TODAY.

LOW LEVEL FLOW SW WILL PERSIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WELL
TO OUR WEST. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL WARM AIR OVER OUR
REGION. IF BREAKS IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS OCCUR (VERY
PLAUSIBLE)...THE PARTIAL SUN WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE 70S. FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S CONSIDERING THAT TEMPS STARTING OUT IN
THE 60S. WHILE THESE HIGH TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...THEY ARE
STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW RECORD HIGHS FOR THE 24TH.

SW 850MB FLOW EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS 50-55KTS OVER THE REGION
TODAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WE WILL MIX THAT HIGH. MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL OFF THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAX WIND GUSTS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30KTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IF
SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE WERE TO OCCUR...GUSTS AROUND 35KTS OR SLIGHTLY
STRONGER COULD BE REALIZED.

APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. KINEMATICS STILL RATHER IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
INSTABILITY MARGINAL AT BEST. IF ENOUGH HEATING WERE TO OCCUR...THEN
WE WOULD HAVE A BETTER PROBABILITY OF A STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OVER OUR FAR EAST-SE COUNTIES CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THUS WILL
INCREASE POP TO HIGH CHANCE OVER THE FAR SE COUNTIES...TRENDING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE TO NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE TRIANGLE AREA.

TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A WEST-NW DIRECTION.
UPSTAIRS...850MB TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...INITIAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET OR DELAYED. THUS WILL RAISE MIN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MIN TEMPS AROUND 50 NW
TO NEAR 60 FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TUESDAY...SURFACE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TEH STALLED OFF THE GA COAST LATES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION TOWARD SUNSET. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING OUR REGION COUPLED WITH
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS MAY ALLOW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER PRIOR TO SUNSET.  MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED ONSET
OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER SO WILL FOLLOW
TREND OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NW TO MID 60S SE. IF CLOUDS
THICKER/LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED....MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MID
50S NW-LOWER 60S SE MAY BE CLOSER TO REALITY. -WSS

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES AND SHIFT EASTWARD AND HELP TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ALONG THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG/NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY....
SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE... A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL NOT DELIVER ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR (ULTRA
LOW DEWPOINTS... INSTEAD THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE 30S). WITHOUT THE ULTRA LOW DEWPOINTS IT APPEARS THAT
WE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW... IF
ANY AT ALL... ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WARMER WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER... WE WILL BEGIN TO LOSS SATURATION
IN THE KEY -10 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS LAYER OF THE ATMO. THUS...
HAVE REMOVED SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY... EXPECT IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING... WHERE WE WOULD STILL
NEED HIGH PRECIP RATES TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TO
OVERCOME AROUND A 3 KFT PLUS ABOVE FREEZING LAYER (SFC-3KFT THAT
IS). REGARDLESS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ABOVE TEMPS AND IF WE DO
INDEED SEE ANY SNOW MIX IN WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO
LOWER 40S SE. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS... WILL ONLY SHOW HIGH TEMPS AROUND 40 N/NW TO THE
UPPER 40S SE.

A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INTO THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE CORE OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL NOT DIVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO BRING ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP TOO OUR REGION. THUS... WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES/FURRIES OR BRIEF SHOWER
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FLAT ACROSS OUR AREA... WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING NUDGING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... BEFORE WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S AND
60S. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNTIL THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...
EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM MONDAY...

A WARM MOIST SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY MORNING.  CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE WEST-TO-EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SW WIND WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30-
35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING...USHERING IN A
STABLE AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
RAIN. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240813
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
313 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TODAY...WARM AIR MASS HAS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC WITH PRE DAWN TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S...COMPARABLE TO OUR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MATURE CYCLONE LIFTING
NWD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THIS MORNING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED DRY
SLOT PROGRESSING NWD ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 8K-
10K HAS LIKELY DRIED OUT APPRECIABLY COMPARED TO THE 00Z GSO
SOUNDING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND HIGH
TEMPS...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND STRENGTH
OF WIND GUSTS LATER TODAY.

LOW LEVEL FLOW SW WILL PERSIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WELL
TO OUR WEST. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL WARM AIR OVER OUR
REGION. IF BREAKS IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS OCCUR (VERY
PLAUSIBLE)...THE PARTIAL SUN WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE 70S. FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S CONSIDERING THAT TEMPS STARTING OUT IN
THE 60S. WHILE THESE HIGH TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...THEY ARE
STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW RECORD HIGHS FOR THE 24TH.

SW 850MB FLOW EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS 50-55KTS OVER THE REGION
TODAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WE WILL MIX THAT HIGH. MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL OFF THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAX WIND GUSTS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30KTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IF
SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE WERE TO OCCUR...GUSTS AROUND 35KTS OR SLIGHTLY
STRONGER COULD BE REALIZED.

APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. KINEMATICS STILL RATHER IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
INSTABILITY MARGINAL AT BEST. IF ENOUGH HEATING WERE TO OCCUR...THEN
WE WOULD HAVE A BETTER PROBABILITY OF A STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OVER OUR FAR EAST-SE COUNTIES CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THUS WILL
INCREASE POP TO HIGH CHANCE OVER THE FAR SE COUNTIES...TRENDING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE TO NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE TRIANGLE AREA.

TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A WEST-NW DIRECTION.
UPSTAIRS...850MB TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...INITIAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET OR DELAYED. THUS WILL RAISE MIN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MIN TEMPS AROUND 50 NW
TO NEAR 60 FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TUESDAY...SURFACE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TEH STALLED OFF THE GA COAST LATES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION TOWARD SUNSET. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING OUR REGION COUPLED WITH
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS MAY ALLOW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER PRIOR TO SUNSET.  MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED ONSET
OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER SO WILL FOLLOW
TREND OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NW TO MID 60S SE. IF CLOUDS
THICKER/LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED....MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MID
50S NW-LOWER 60S SE MAY BE CLOSER TO REALITY. -WSS

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES AND SHIFT EASTWARD AND HELP TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ALONG THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG/NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY....
SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE... A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL NOT DELIVER ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR (ULTRA
LOW DEWPOINTS... INSTEAD THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE 30S). WITHOUT THE ULTRA LOW DEWPOINTS IT APPEARS THAT
WE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW... IF
ANY AT ALL... ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WARMER WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER... WE WILL BEGIN TO LOSS SATURATION
IN THE KEY -10 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS LAYER OF THE ATMO. THUS...
HAVE REMOVED SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY... EXPECT IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING... WHERE WE WOULD STILL
NEED HIGH PRECIP RATES TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TO
OVERCOME AROUND A 3 KFT PLUS ABOVE FREEZING LAYER (SFC-3KFT THAT
IS). REGARDLESS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ABOVE TEMPS AND IF WE DO
INDEED SEE ANY SNOW MIX IN WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO
LOWER 40S SE. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS... WILL ONLY SHOW HIGH TEMPS AROUND 40 N/NW TO THE
UPPER 40S SE.

A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INTO THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE CORE OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL NOT DIVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO BRING ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP TOO OUR REGION. THUS... WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES/FURRIES OR BRIEF SHOWER
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...


THU-SUN: BENEATH A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF
NC)...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT
NORTH AS THE FLOW ALOFT LOSES AMPLITUDE/RELAXES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTANT PATTERN OF RELAXING NW TO WNW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
TO DRY AND SEASONABLE ONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM MONDAY...

A WARM MOIST SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY MORNING.  CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE WEST-TO-EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SW WIND WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30-
35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING...USHERING IN A
STABLE AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
RAIN. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 240813
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
313 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TODAY...WARM AIR MASS HAS OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC WITH PRE DAWN TEMPS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S...COMPARABLE TO OUR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MATURE CYCLONE LIFTING
NWD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THIS MORNING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED DRY
SLOT PROGRESSING NWD ACROSS OUR REGION. THUS...ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 8K-
10K HAS LIKELY DRIED OUT APPRECIABLY COMPARED TO THE 00Z GSO
SOUNDING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND HIGH
TEMPS...THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND STRENGTH
OF WIND GUSTS LATER TODAY.

LOW LEVEL FLOW SW WILL PERSIST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WELL
TO OUR WEST. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL WARM AIR OVER OUR
REGION. IF BREAKS IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS OCCUR (VERY
PLAUSIBLE)...THE PARTIAL SUN WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE 70S. FAVOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S CONSIDERING THAT TEMPS STARTING OUT IN
THE 60S. WHILE THESE HIGH TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...THEY ARE
STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW RECORD HIGHS FOR THE 24TH.

SW 850MB FLOW EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS 50-55KTS OVER THE REGION
TODAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WE WILL MIX THAT HIGH. MOMENTUM TRANSFER
TOOL OFF THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAX WIND GUSTS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30KTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IF
SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE WERE TO OCCUR...GUSTS AROUND 35KTS OR SLIGHTLY
STRONGER COULD BE REALIZED.

APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. KINEMATICS STILL RATHER IMPRESSIVE THOUGH
INSTABILITY MARGINAL AT BEST. IF ENOUGH HEATING WERE TO OCCUR...THEN
WE WOULD HAVE A BETTER PROBABILITY OF A STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OVER OUR FAR EAST-SE COUNTIES CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS DEPICT
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THUS WILL
INCREASE POP TO HIGH CHANCE OVER THE FAR SE COUNTIES...TRENDING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE TO NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE TRIANGLE AREA.

TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC. ASIDE FROM A
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR RELATIVELY
UNNOTICED. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO A WEST-NW DIRECTION.
UPSTAIRS...850MB TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...INITIAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET OR DELAYED. THUS WILL RAISE MIN
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MIN TEMPS AROUND 50 NW
TO NEAR 60 FAR SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM MONDAY...

TUESDAY...SURFACE FRONT STALLS OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM MID-HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A SURFACE WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TEH STALLED OFF THE GA COAST LATES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION TOWARD SUNSET. LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET EXITING OUR REGION COUPLED WITH
THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS MAY ALLOW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SC BORDER PRIOR TO SUNSET.  MAX TEMPS
TUESDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVERAGE AND EXPECTED ONSET
OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER SO WILL FOLLOW
TREND OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NW TO MID 60S SE. IF CLOUDS
THICKER/LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED....MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO MID
50S NW-LOWER 60S SE MAY BE CLOSER TO REALITY. -WSS

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: S/W ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GULF COAST
STATES AND SHIFT EASTWARD AND HELP TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ALONG THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG/NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY....
SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE... A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL NOT DELIVER ANY SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR (ULTRA
LOW DEWPOINTS... INSTEAD THE LOWEST DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF ANY PRECIP
WILL BE IN THE 30S). WITHOUT THE ULTRA LOW DEWPOINTS IT APPEARS THAT
WE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW... IF
ANY AT ALL... ESPECIALLY AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WARMER WITH
THE THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA. WHEN THERMAL PROFILES WOULD
SUPPORT A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER... WE WILL BEGIN TO LOSS SATURATION
IN THE KEY -10 TO -20 DEGREES CELSIUS LAYER OF THE ATMO. THUS...
HAVE REMOVED SNOW FROM THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY... EXPECT IN THE
FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING... WHERE WE WOULD STILL
NEED HIGH PRECIP RATES TO ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN TO
OVERCOME AROUND A 3 KFT PLUS ABOVE FREEZING LAYER (SFC-3KFT THAT
IS). REGARDLESS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO ABOVE TEMPS AND IF WE DO
INDEED SEE ANY SNOW MIX IN WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS.
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO
LOWER 40S SE. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS... WILL ONLY SHOW HIGH TEMPS AROUND 40 N/NW TO THE
UPPER 40S SE.

A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
INTO THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE CORE OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL NOT DIVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO BRING ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIP TOO OUR REGION. THUS... WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES/FURRIES OR BRIEF SHOWER
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -BSD

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...


THU-SUN: BENEATH A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF
NC)...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT
NORTH AS THE FLOW ALOFT LOSES AMPLITUDE/RELAXES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTANT PATTERN OF RELAXING NW TO WNW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
TO DRY AND SEASONABLE ONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM MONDAY...

A WARM MOIST SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY MORNING.  CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE WEST-TO-EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SW WIND WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30-
35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING...USHERING IN A
STABLE AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
RAIN. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240541
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 810 PM SUNDAY...

THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DATA INDICATED THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WAS TRACKING NE THROUGH CENTRAL TN INTO KY THIS EVENING. THE MID
LEVEL FRONT WAS SURGING EASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A
FINAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING OUR
AREA FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF RAINFALL (WITH ONE
FINAL BAND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE) AS THE MID LEVEL
FRONT PASSES. THERE WERE TWO VERY IMPORTANT LOW LEVEL FEATURES
PRESENT. BOTH WILL ACT TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION.
1)...THE EXPECTED IN-SITU DAMMING EVENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTH AS THE DIABATIC PROCESS TOOK OVER. NOTE THE STRONG CAD
SIGNATURE EXTENDS THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE EASTERN SLOPES
AND PIEDMONT FROM VIRGINIA THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA... NW SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S ALL THE
WAY TO GAINESVILLE GEORGIA (JUST NE OF ATL) WITH A LOW LEVEL NE
FLOW. THE CAD BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF GSP TO STATESVILLE...
THROUGH THE TRIAD...AND INTO SOUTHERN VA. WINDS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY
BECOME SE...AND GUSTY TO 20 MPH. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 50S FROM GSP
TO CLT TO RDU AND RWI.

THE SECOND...BUT EVEN MORE IMPORTANT BOUNDARY (THE MAIN WARM FRONT)
WAS LOCATED FROM SE GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE CENTRAL SC COAST...
THEN OFFSHORE OF SC. IT APPEARS THAT A MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED SE OF AUGUSTA AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE TOWARD OR NEAR
WILMINGTON AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR SHOULD
APPROACH THE FAR SE PART OF NC...BUT THE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER OUR
REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVENT THE MAIN WARM FRONT FROM SURGING
DEEP INTO THE MORE STABLE DOME OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

EVEN WITH THE PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE BANDS OF CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
BEFORE ENDING FROM THE SW LATE EVENING OVER THE SW PIEDMONT. SHOWERS
AND ELEVATED STORMS WILL GRADUALLY END IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT.

ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF EVEN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES
WITH THIS EVENT...LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM
WILMINGTON TO MOREHEAD CITY.

IT APPEARS THAT THE IN-SITU DAMMING WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT IN THE NW
AND NORTH PIEDMONT...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY COMES BACK EAST WITH THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS FAVORS LOWS HOLDING STEADY IN THE NW...
AND THE RISING TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL AND NE ZONES SHOULD BE HALTED
BY THE PASSAGE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLY THE EASTWARD
MOVING WEDGE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY ON MONDAY...WHILE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND NO AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW 70S WEST TO MID AND
EVEN UPPER 70S EAST (STILL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT OF RECORDS).
MIXING DEPTH IN NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS VARIES BY AS MUCH AS
2000 FT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WIND FIELDS WILL STILL BE QUITE
STRONG...WITH UP TO 50KT IN THE LOWEST 3000FT. HOW MUCH OF THAT WILL
BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT A
MINIMUM IT APPEARS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HIGHER GUSTS IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT AND
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS OUT OF REACH.  WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN THE HWO.  WITH DEWPOINTS STILL ELEVATED IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN..SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP.  HOWEVER... THERE IS NO
REAL SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR ASCENT...SO WILL JUST MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS IS A BIT
QUICKER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF..BUT ALL MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

TUE-WED NIGHT: 1025 MB CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS TUE...THEN NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT
AND WED. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A COMPLEX POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH ALOFT WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE CENTRAL GOM TO THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THEN UP SOUTHERN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST ON WED. THE PREFERRED CLOSER TO THE COAST/MORE
WESTWARD SOLUTION FOR THE LOW TRACK FROM YESTERDAY HAS GAINED
INCREASING MODEL SUPPORT SINCE...WITH THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE
CANADIAN NOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING...LEAVING
THE NAM THE LONE WELL OFFSHORE/EASTERN OPERATIONAL OUTLIER.

WITH THE ABOVE FAVORED LOW TRACK IN MIND...THE RESULT WILL BE RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A
COLD RAIN AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES...ON WED. THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND PRESENCE OF THE
CP HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO MIGRATE IN TANDEM UP THE
EAST COAST...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SNOW ON THE NW
SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY NOT MATERIALIZE UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES
PARALLEL TO THE LARGER METRO AREAS IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...FORECAST
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SPEND TIME IN THE "WINTRY MIXTURE" TO
"MEASURABLE SNOW WITH RAIN" PORTION OF THE NOMOGRAM AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO PULL AWAY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WED. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES/
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE
PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD
LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY SECONDARY FACTORS SUCH AS PRECIPITATION
RATES/MELTING...WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR EVENTS THAT FALL IN THE
ABOVE-REFERENCED PORTIONS OF THE NOMOGRAM.

WITH THE ABOVE FACTORS IN MIND...THERE IS A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY
FOR WET SNOW TO AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY MIX IN TO WARRANT MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 IN THE
GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECAST. THE BREVITY AND INTERMITTENT NATURE OF
SNOW DURING OTHERWISE CHILLY RAIN...ABOVE FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ( ALBEIT ONLY MARGINALLY)...RELATIVELY WARM SOIL
TEMPERATURES 9MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY)...AND WETNESS FROM THE RAIN
WILL ALL MAKE IT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR ANY ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR.
NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL...HOWEVER...DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WED NIGHT...SO ANY MOISTURE ON THE ROADWAYS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
BLACK ICE THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING.

THU-SUN: BENEATH A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF
NC)...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT
NORTH AS THE FLOW ALOFT LOSES AMPLITUDE/RELAXES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTANT PATTERN OF RELAXING NW TO WNW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
TO DRY AND SEASONABLE ONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM MONDAY...

A WARM MOIST SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY MORNING.  CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE WEST-TO-EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SW WIND WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30-
35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING...USHERING IN A
STABLE AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
RAIN. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240541
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1240 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 810 PM SUNDAY...

THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DATA INDICATED THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WAS TRACKING NE THROUGH CENTRAL TN INTO KY THIS EVENING. THE MID
LEVEL FRONT WAS SURGING EASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A
FINAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING OUR
AREA FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF RAINFALL (WITH ONE
FINAL BAND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE) AS THE MID LEVEL
FRONT PASSES. THERE WERE TWO VERY IMPORTANT LOW LEVEL FEATURES
PRESENT. BOTH WILL ACT TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION.
1)...THE EXPECTED IN-SITU DAMMING EVENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTH AS THE DIABATIC PROCESS TOOK OVER. NOTE THE STRONG CAD
SIGNATURE EXTENDS THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE EASTERN SLOPES
AND PIEDMONT FROM VIRGINIA THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA... NW SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S ALL THE
WAY TO GAINESVILLE GEORGIA (JUST NE OF ATL) WITH A LOW LEVEL NE
FLOW. THE CAD BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF GSP TO STATESVILLE...
THROUGH THE TRIAD...AND INTO SOUTHERN VA. WINDS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY
BECOME SE...AND GUSTY TO 20 MPH. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 50S FROM GSP
TO CLT TO RDU AND RWI.

THE SECOND...BUT EVEN MORE IMPORTANT BOUNDARY (THE MAIN WARM FRONT)
WAS LOCATED FROM SE GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE CENTRAL SC COAST...
THEN OFFSHORE OF SC. IT APPEARS THAT A MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED SE OF AUGUSTA AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE TOWARD OR NEAR
WILMINGTON AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR SHOULD
APPROACH THE FAR SE PART OF NC...BUT THE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER OUR
REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVENT THE MAIN WARM FRONT FROM SURGING
DEEP INTO THE MORE STABLE DOME OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

EVEN WITH THE PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE BANDS OF CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
BEFORE ENDING FROM THE SW LATE EVENING OVER THE SW PIEDMONT. SHOWERS
AND ELEVATED STORMS WILL GRADUALLY END IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT.

ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF EVEN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES
WITH THIS EVENT...LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM
WILMINGTON TO MOREHEAD CITY.

IT APPEARS THAT THE IN-SITU DAMMING WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT IN THE NW
AND NORTH PIEDMONT...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY COMES BACK EAST WITH THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS FAVORS LOWS HOLDING STEADY IN THE NW...
AND THE RISING TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL AND NE ZONES SHOULD BE HALTED
BY THE PASSAGE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLY THE EASTWARD
MOVING WEDGE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY ON MONDAY...WHILE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND NO AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW 70S WEST TO MID AND
EVEN UPPER 70S EAST (STILL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT OF RECORDS).
MIXING DEPTH IN NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS VARIES BY AS MUCH AS
2000 FT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WIND FIELDS WILL STILL BE QUITE
STRONG...WITH UP TO 50KT IN THE LOWEST 3000FT. HOW MUCH OF THAT WILL
BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT A
MINIMUM IT APPEARS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HIGHER GUSTS IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT AND
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS OUT OF REACH.  WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN THE HWO.  WITH DEWPOINTS STILL ELEVATED IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN..SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP.  HOWEVER... THERE IS NO
REAL SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR ASCENT...SO WILL JUST MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS IS A BIT
QUICKER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF..BUT ALL MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

TUE-WED NIGHT: 1025 MB CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS TUE...THEN NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT
AND WED. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A COMPLEX POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH ALOFT WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE CENTRAL GOM TO THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THEN UP SOUTHERN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST ON WED. THE PREFERRED CLOSER TO THE COAST/MORE
WESTWARD SOLUTION FOR THE LOW TRACK FROM YESTERDAY HAS GAINED
INCREASING MODEL SUPPORT SINCE...WITH THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE
CANADIAN NOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING...LEAVING
THE NAM THE LONE WELL OFFSHORE/EASTERN OPERATIONAL OUTLIER.

WITH THE ABOVE FAVORED LOW TRACK IN MIND...THE RESULT WILL BE RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A
COLD RAIN AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES...ON WED. THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND PRESENCE OF THE
CP HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO MIGRATE IN TANDEM UP THE
EAST COAST...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SNOW ON THE NW
SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY NOT MATERIALIZE UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES
PARALLEL TO THE LARGER METRO AREAS IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...FORECAST
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SPEND TIME IN THE "WINTRY MIXTURE" TO
"MEASURABLE SNOW WITH RAIN" PORTION OF THE NOMOGRAM AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO PULL AWAY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WED. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES/
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE
PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD
LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY SECONDARY FACTORS SUCH AS PRECIPITATION
RATES/MELTING...WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR EVENTS THAT FALL IN THE
ABOVE-REFERENCED PORTIONS OF THE NOMOGRAM.

WITH THE ABOVE FACTORS IN MIND...THERE IS A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY
FOR WET SNOW TO AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY MIX IN TO WARRANT MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 IN THE
GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECAST. THE BREVITY AND INTERMITTENT NATURE OF
SNOW DURING OTHERWISE CHILLY RAIN...ABOVE FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ( ALBEIT ONLY MARGINALLY)...RELATIVELY WARM SOIL
TEMPERATURES 9MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY)...AND WETNESS FROM THE RAIN
WILL ALL MAKE IT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR ANY ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR.
NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL...HOWEVER...DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WED NIGHT...SO ANY MOISTURE ON THE ROADWAYS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
BLACK ICE THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING.

THU-SUN: BENEATH A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF
NC)...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT
NORTH AS THE FLOW ALOFT LOSES AMPLITUDE/RELAXES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTANT PATTERN OF RELAXING NW TO WNW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
TO DRY AND SEASONABLE ONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM MONDAY...

A WARM MOIST SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY MORNING.  CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE WEST-TO-EAST LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SW WIND WILL BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30-
35 MPH. THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING...USHERING IN A
STABLE AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
THEN TRACK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF
RAIN. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 240336
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1036 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
ENDING THE HEAVIEST RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 810 PM SUNDAY...

...THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN AT OR VERY NEAR THE
COAST...

THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DATA INDICATED THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WAS TRACKING NE THROUGH CENTRAL TN INTO KY THIS EVENING. THE MID
LEVEL FRONT WAS SURGING EASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A
FINAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING OUR
AREA FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF RAINFALL (WITH ONE
FINAL BAND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE) AS THE MID LEVEL
FRONT PASSES. THERE WERE TWO VERY IMPORTANT LOW LEVEL FEATURES
PRESENT. BOTH WILL ACT TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION.
1)...THE EXPECTED IN-SITU DAMMING EVENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTH AS THE DIABATIC PROCESS TOOK OVER. NOTE THE STRONG CAD
SIGNATURE EXTENDS THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE EASTERN SLOPES
AND PIEDMONT FROM VIRGINIA THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA... NW SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S ALL THE
WAY TO GAINESVILLE GEORGIA (JUST NE OF ATL) WITH A LOW LEVEL NE
FLOW. THE CAD BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF GSP TO STATESVILLE...
THROUGH THE TRIAD...AND INTO SOUTHERN VA. WINDS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY
BECOME SE...AND GUSTY TO 20 MPH. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 50S FROM GSP
TO CLT TO RDU AND RWI.

THE SECOND...BUT EVEN MORE IMPORTANT BOUNDARY (THE MAIN WARM FRONT)
WAS LOCATED FROM SE GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE CENTRAL SC COAST...
THEN OFFSHORE OF SC. IT APPEARS THAT A MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED SE OF AUGUSTA AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE TOWARD OR NEAR
WILMINGTON AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR SHOULD
APPROACH THE FAR SE PART OF NC...BUT THE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER OUR
REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVENT THE MAIN WARM FRONT FROM SURGING
DEEP INTO THE MORE STABLE DOME OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

EVEN WITH THE PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE BANDS OF CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
BEFORE ENDING FROM THE SW LATE EVENING OVER THE SW PIEDMONT. SHOWERS
AND ELEVATED STORMS WILL GRADUALLY END IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT.

ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF EVEN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES
WITH THIS EVENT...LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM
WILMINGTON TO MOREHEAD CITY.

IT APPEARS THAT THE IN-SITU DAMMING WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT IN THE NW
AND NORTH PIEDMONT...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY COMES BACK EAST WITH THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS FAVORS LOWS HOLDING STEADY IN THE NW...
AND THE RISING TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL AND NE ZONES SHOULD BE HALTED
BY THE PASSAGE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLY THE EASTWARD
MOVING WEDGE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY ON MONDAY...WHILE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND NO AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW 70S WEST TO MID AND
EVEN UPPER 70S EAST (STILL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT OF RECORDS).
MIXING DEPTH IN NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS VARIES BY AS MUCH AS
2000 FT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WIND FIELDS WILL STILL BE QUITE
STRONG...WITH UP TO 50KT IN THE LOWEST 3000FT. HOW MUCH OF THAT WILL
BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT A
MINIMUM IT APPEARS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HIGHER GUSTS IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT AND
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS OUT OF REACH.  WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN THE HWO.  WITH DEWPOINTS STILL ELEVATED IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN..SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP.  HOWEVER... THERE IS NO
REAL SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR ASCENT...SO WILL JUST MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS IS A BIT
QUICKER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF..BUT ALL MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

TUE-WED NIGHT: 1025 MB CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS TUE...THEN NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT
AND WED. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A COMPLEX POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH ALOFT WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE CENTRAL GOM TO THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THEN UP SOUTHERN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST ON WED. THE PREFERRED CLOSER TO THE COAST/MORE
WESTWARD SOLUTION FOR THE LOW TRACK FROM YESTERDAY HAS GAINED
INCREASING MODEL SUPPORT SINCE...WITH THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE
CANADIAN NOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING...LEAVING
THE NAM THE LONE WELL OFFSHORE/EASTERN OPERATIONAL OUTLIER.

WITH THE ABOVE FAVORED LOW TRACK IN MIND...THE RESULT WILL BE RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A
COLD RAIN AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES...ON WED. THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND PRESENCE OF THE
CP HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO MIGRATE IN TANDEM UP THE
EAST COAST...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SNOW ON THE NW
SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY NOT MATERIALIZE UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES
PARALLEL TO THE LARGER METRO AREAS IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...FORECAST
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SPEND TIME IN THE "WINTRY MIXTURE" TO
"MEASURABLE SNOW WITH RAIN" PORTION OF THE NOMOGRAM AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO PULL AWAY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WED. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES/
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE
PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD
LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY SECONDARY FACTORS SUCH AS PRECIPITATION
RATES/MELTING...WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR EVENTS THAT FALL IN THE
ABOVE-REFERENCED PORTIONS OF THE NOMOGRAM.

WITH THE ABOVE FACTORS IN MIND...THERE IS A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY
FOR WET SNOW TO AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY MIX IN TO WARRANT MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 IN THE
GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECAST. THE BREVITY AND INTERMITTENT NATURE OF
SNOW DURING OTHERWISE CHILLY RAIN...ABOVE FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ( ALBEIT ONLY MARGINALLY)...RELATIVELY WARM SOIL
TEMPERATURES 9MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY)...AND WETNESS FROM THE RAIN
WILL ALL MAKE IT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR ANY ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR.
NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL...HOWEVER...DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WED NIGHT...SO ANY MOISTURE ON THE ROADWAYS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
BLACK ICE THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING.

THU-SUN: BENEATH A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF
NC)...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT
NORTH AS THE FLOW ALOFT LOSES AMPLITUDE/RELAXES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTANT PATTERN OF RELAXING NW TO WNW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
TO DRY AND SEASONABLE ONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT
SURGING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION HAVE PROGRESSED EAST OF THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS AS OF 03Z...AND WILL EXIT THE RDU/FAY/RWI
TERMINALS BETWEEN 04-05Z. IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT TO VFR BY
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON (15-18Z). HOWEVER...A RENEWED POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT EASTERN TERMINALS MON AFT INTO MON
NIGHT IN ASSOC/W A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
SSW/SW AND INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY 15-18Z
MONDAY AND REMAIN WINDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO
~10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD: A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
TUE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS/INTENSIFIES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240336
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1036 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
ENDING THE HEAVIEST RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 810 PM SUNDAY...

...THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN AT OR VERY NEAR THE
COAST...

THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DATA INDICATED THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WAS TRACKING NE THROUGH CENTRAL TN INTO KY THIS EVENING. THE MID
LEVEL FRONT WAS SURGING EASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A
FINAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING OUR
AREA FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF RAINFALL (WITH ONE
FINAL BAND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE) AS THE MID LEVEL
FRONT PASSES. THERE WERE TWO VERY IMPORTANT LOW LEVEL FEATURES
PRESENT. BOTH WILL ACT TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION.
1)...THE EXPECTED IN-SITU DAMMING EVENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTH AS THE DIABATIC PROCESS TOOK OVER. NOTE THE STRONG CAD
SIGNATURE EXTENDS THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE EASTERN SLOPES
AND PIEDMONT FROM VIRGINIA THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA... NW SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S ALL THE
WAY TO GAINESVILLE GEORGIA (JUST NE OF ATL) WITH A LOW LEVEL NE
FLOW. THE CAD BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF GSP TO STATESVILLE...
THROUGH THE TRIAD...AND INTO SOUTHERN VA. WINDS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY
BECOME SE...AND GUSTY TO 20 MPH. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 50S FROM GSP
TO CLT TO RDU AND RWI.

THE SECOND...BUT EVEN MORE IMPORTANT BOUNDARY (THE MAIN WARM FRONT)
WAS LOCATED FROM SE GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE CENTRAL SC COAST...
THEN OFFSHORE OF SC. IT APPEARS THAT A MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED SE OF AUGUSTA AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE TOWARD OR NEAR
WILMINGTON AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR SHOULD
APPROACH THE FAR SE PART OF NC...BUT THE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER OUR
REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVENT THE MAIN WARM FRONT FROM SURGING
DEEP INTO THE MORE STABLE DOME OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

EVEN WITH THE PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE BANDS OF CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
BEFORE ENDING FROM THE SW LATE EVENING OVER THE SW PIEDMONT. SHOWERS
AND ELEVATED STORMS WILL GRADUALLY END IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT.

ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF EVEN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES
WITH THIS EVENT...LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM
WILMINGTON TO MOREHEAD CITY.

IT APPEARS THAT THE IN-SITU DAMMING WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT IN THE NW
AND NORTH PIEDMONT...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY COMES BACK EAST WITH THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS FAVORS LOWS HOLDING STEADY IN THE NW...
AND THE RISING TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL AND NE ZONES SHOULD BE HALTED
BY THE PASSAGE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLY THE EASTWARD
MOVING WEDGE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY ON MONDAY...WHILE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND NO AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW 70S WEST TO MID AND
EVEN UPPER 70S EAST (STILL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT OF RECORDS).
MIXING DEPTH IN NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS VARIES BY AS MUCH AS
2000 FT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WIND FIELDS WILL STILL BE QUITE
STRONG...WITH UP TO 50KT IN THE LOWEST 3000FT. HOW MUCH OF THAT WILL
BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT A
MINIMUM IT APPEARS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HIGHER GUSTS IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT AND
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS OUT OF REACH.  WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN THE HWO.  WITH DEWPOINTS STILL ELEVATED IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN..SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP.  HOWEVER... THERE IS NO
REAL SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR ASCENT...SO WILL JUST MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS IS A BIT
QUICKER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF..BUT ALL MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

TUE-WED NIGHT: 1025 MB CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS TUE...THEN NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT
AND WED. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A COMPLEX POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH ALOFT WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE CENTRAL GOM TO THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THEN UP SOUTHERN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST ON WED. THE PREFERRED CLOSER TO THE COAST/MORE
WESTWARD SOLUTION FOR THE LOW TRACK FROM YESTERDAY HAS GAINED
INCREASING MODEL SUPPORT SINCE...WITH THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE
CANADIAN NOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING...LEAVING
THE NAM THE LONE WELL OFFSHORE/EASTERN OPERATIONAL OUTLIER.

WITH THE ABOVE FAVORED LOW TRACK IN MIND...THE RESULT WILL BE RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A
COLD RAIN AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES...ON WED. THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND PRESENCE OF THE
CP HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO MIGRATE IN TANDEM UP THE
EAST COAST...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SNOW ON THE NW
SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY NOT MATERIALIZE UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES
PARALLEL TO THE LARGER METRO AREAS IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...FORECAST
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SPEND TIME IN THE "WINTRY MIXTURE" TO
"MEASURABLE SNOW WITH RAIN" PORTION OF THE NOMOGRAM AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO PULL AWAY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WED. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES/
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE
PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD
LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY SECONDARY FACTORS SUCH AS PRECIPITATION
RATES/MELTING...WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR EVENTS THAT FALL IN THE
ABOVE-REFERENCED PORTIONS OF THE NOMOGRAM.

WITH THE ABOVE FACTORS IN MIND...THERE IS A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY
FOR WET SNOW TO AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY MIX IN TO WARRANT MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 IN THE
GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECAST. THE BREVITY AND INTERMITTENT NATURE OF
SNOW DURING OTHERWISE CHILLY RAIN...ABOVE FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ( ALBEIT ONLY MARGINALLY)...RELATIVELY WARM SOIL
TEMPERATURES 9MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY)...AND WETNESS FROM THE RAIN
WILL ALL MAKE IT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR ANY ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR.
NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL...HOWEVER...DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WED NIGHT...SO ANY MOISTURE ON THE ROADWAYS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
BLACK ICE THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING.

THU-SUN: BENEATH A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF
NC)...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT
NORTH AS THE FLOW ALOFT LOSES AMPLITUDE/RELAXES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTANT PATTERN OF RELAXING NW TO WNW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
TO DRY AND SEASONABLE ONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT
SURGING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION HAVE PROGRESSED EAST OF THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS AS OF 03Z...AND WILL EXIT THE RDU/FAY/RWI
TERMINALS BETWEEN 04-05Z. IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT TO VFR BY
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON (15-18Z). HOWEVER...A RENEWED POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT EASTERN TERMINALS MON AFT INTO MON
NIGHT IN ASSOC/W A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
SSW/SW AND INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY 15-18Z
MONDAY AND REMAIN WINDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO
~10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD: A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
TUE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS/INTENSIFIES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 240336
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1036 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
ENDING THE HEAVIEST RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 810 PM SUNDAY...

...THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN AT OR VERY NEAR THE
COAST...

THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DATA INDICATED THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WAS TRACKING NE THROUGH CENTRAL TN INTO KY THIS EVENING. THE MID
LEVEL FRONT WAS SURGING EASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A
FINAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING OUR
AREA FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF RAINFALL (WITH ONE
FINAL BAND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE) AS THE MID LEVEL
FRONT PASSES. THERE WERE TWO VERY IMPORTANT LOW LEVEL FEATURES
PRESENT. BOTH WILL ACT TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION.
1)...THE EXPECTED IN-SITU DAMMING EVENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTH AS THE DIABATIC PROCESS TOOK OVER. NOTE THE STRONG CAD
SIGNATURE EXTENDS THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE EASTERN SLOPES
AND PIEDMONT FROM VIRGINIA THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA... NW SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S ALL THE
WAY TO GAINESVILLE GEORGIA (JUST NE OF ATL) WITH A LOW LEVEL NE
FLOW. THE CAD BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF GSP TO STATESVILLE...
THROUGH THE TRIAD...AND INTO SOUTHERN VA. WINDS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY
BECOME SE...AND GUSTY TO 20 MPH. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 50S FROM GSP
TO CLT TO RDU AND RWI.

THE SECOND...BUT EVEN MORE IMPORTANT BOUNDARY (THE MAIN WARM FRONT)
WAS LOCATED FROM SE GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE CENTRAL SC COAST...
THEN OFFSHORE OF SC. IT APPEARS THAT A MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED SE OF AUGUSTA AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE TOWARD OR NEAR
WILMINGTON AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR SHOULD
APPROACH THE FAR SE PART OF NC...BUT THE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER OUR
REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVENT THE MAIN WARM FRONT FROM SURGING
DEEP INTO THE MORE STABLE DOME OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

EVEN WITH THE PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE BANDS OF CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
BEFORE ENDING FROM THE SW LATE EVENING OVER THE SW PIEDMONT. SHOWERS
AND ELEVATED STORMS WILL GRADUALLY END IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT.

ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF EVEN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES
WITH THIS EVENT...LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM
WILMINGTON TO MOREHEAD CITY.

IT APPEARS THAT THE IN-SITU DAMMING WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT IN THE NW
AND NORTH PIEDMONT...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY COMES BACK EAST WITH THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS FAVORS LOWS HOLDING STEADY IN THE NW...
AND THE RISING TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL AND NE ZONES SHOULD BE HALTED
BY THE PASSAGE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLY THE EASTWARD
MOVING WEDGE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY ON MONDAY...WHILE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND NO AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW 70S WEST TO MID AND
EVEN UPPER 70S EAST (STILL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT OF RECORDS).
MIXING DEPTH IN NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS VARIES BY AS MUCH AS
2000 FT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WIND FIELDS WILL STILL BE QUITE
STRONG...WITH UP TO 50KT IN THE LOWEST 3000FT. HOW MUCH OF THAT WILL
BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT A
MINIMUM IT APPEARS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HIGHER GUSTS IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT AND
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS OUT OF REACH.  WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN THE HWO.  WITH DEWPOINTS STILL ELEVATED IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN..SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP.  HOWEVER... THERE IS NO
REAL SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR ASCENT...SO WILL JUST MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS IS A BIT
QUICKER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF..BUT ALL MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

TUE-WED NIGHT: 1025 MB CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS TUE...THEN NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT
AND WED. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A COMPLEX POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH ALOFT WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE CENTRAL GOM TO THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THEN UP SOUTHERN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST ON WED. THE PREFERRED CLOSER TO THE COAST/MORE
WESTWARD SOLUTION FOR THE LOW TRACK FROM YESTERDAY HAS GAINED
INCREASING MODEL SUPPORT SINCE...WITH THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE
CANADIAN NOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING...LEAVING
THE NAM THE LONE WELL OFFSHORE/EASTERN OPERATIONAL OUTLIER.

WITH THE ABOVE FAVORED LOW TRACK IN MIND...THE RESULT WILL BE RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A
COLD RAIN AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES...ON WED. THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND PRESENCE OF THE
CP HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO MIGRATE IN TANDEM UP THE
EAST COAST...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SNOW ON THE NW
SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY NOT MATERIALIZE UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES
PARALLEL TO THE LARGER METRO AREAS IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...FORECAST
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SPEND TIME IN THE "WINTRY MIXTURE" TO
"MEASURABLE SNOW WITH RAIN" PORTION OF THE NOMOGRAM AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO PULL AWAY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WED. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES/
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE
PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD
LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY SECONDARY FACTORS SUCH AS PRECIPITATION
RATES/MELTING...WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR EVENTS THAT FALL IN THE
ABOVE-REFERENCED PORTIONS OF THE NOMOGRAM.

WITH THE ABOVE FACTORS IN MIND...THERE IS A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY
FOR WET SNOW TO AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY MIX IN TO WARRANT MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 IN THE
GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECAST. THE BREVITY AND INTERMITTENT NATURE OF
SNOW DURING OTHERWISE CHILLY RAIN...ABOVE FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ( ALBEIT ONLY MARGINALLY)...RELATIVELY WARM SOIL
TEMPERATURES 9MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY)...AND WETNESS FROM THE RAIN
WILL ALL MAKE IT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR ANY ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR.
NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL...HOWEVER...DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WED NIGHT...SO ANY MOISTURE ON THE ROADWAYS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
BLACK ICE THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING.

THU-SUN: BENEATH A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF
NC)...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT
NORTH AS THE FLOW ALOFT LOSES AMPLITUDE/RELAXES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTANT PATTERN OF RELAXING NW TO WNW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
TO DRY AND SEASONABLE ONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT
SURGING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION HAVE PROGRESSED EAST OF THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS AS OF 03Z...AND WILL EXIT THE RDU/FAY/RWI
TERMINALS BETWEEN 04-05Z. IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT TO VFR BY
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON (15-18Z). HOWEVER...A RENEWED POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT EASTERN TERMINALS MON AFT INTO MON
NIGHT IN ASSOC/W A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
SSW/SW AND INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY 15-18Z
MONDAY AND REMAIN WINDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO
~10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD: A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
TUE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS/INTENSIFIES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 240336
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1036 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
ENDING THE HEAVIEST RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 810 PM SUNDAY...

...THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN AT OR VERY NEAR THE
COAST...

THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DATA INDICATED THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WAS TRACKING NE THROUGH CENTRAL TN INTO KY THIS EVENING. THE MID
LEVEL FRONT WAS SURGING EASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A
FINAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING OUR
AREA FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF RAINFALL (WITH ONE
FINAL BAND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE) AS THE MID LEVEL
FRONT PASSES. THERE WERE TWO VERY IMPORTANT LOW LEVEL FEATURES
PRESENT. BOTH WILL ACT TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION.
1)...THE EXPECTED IN-SITU DAMMING EVENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTH AS THE DIABATIC PROCESS TOOK OVER. NOTE THE STRONG CAD
SIGNATURE EXTENDS THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BLUE RIDGE EASTERN SLOPES
AND PIEDMONT FROM VIRGINIA THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA... NW SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S ALL THE
WAY TO GAINESVILLE GEORGIA (JUST NE OF ATL) WITH A LOW LEVEL NE
FLOW. THE CAD BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF GSP TO STATESVILLE...
THROUGH THE TRIAD...AND INTO SOUTHERN VA. WINDS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY
BECOME SE...AND GUSTY TO 20 MPH. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 50S FROM GSP
TO CLT TO RDU AND RWI.

THE SECOND...BUT EVEN MORE IMPORTANT BOUNDARY (THE MAIN WARM FRONT)
WAS LOCATED FROM SE GEORGIA NORTHEAST ALONG THE CENTRAL SC COAST...
THEN OFFSHORE OF SC. IT APPEARS THAT A MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED SE OF AUGUSTA AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE TOWARD OR NEAR
WILMINGTON AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR SHOULD
APPROACH THE FAR SE PART OF NC...BUT THE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER OUR
REGION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVENT THE MAIN WARM FRONT FROM SURGING
DEEP INTO THE MORE STABLE DOME OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

EVEN WITH THE PERIODS OF SHOWERS...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE BANDS OF CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
BEFORE ENDING FROM THE SW LATE EVENING OVER THE SW PIEDMONT. SHOWERS
AND ELEVATED STORMS WILL GRADUALLY END IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT.

ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF EVEN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES
WITH THIS EVENT...LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM
WILMINGTON TO MOREHEAD CITY.

IT APPEARS THAT THE IN-SITU DAMMING WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT IN THE NW
AND NORTH PIEDMONT...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY COMES BACK EAST WITH THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS FAVORS LOWS HOLDING STEADY IN THE NW...
AND THE RISING TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL AND NE ZONES SHOULD BE HALTED
BY THE PASSAGE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND POSSIBLY THE EASTWARD
MOVING WEDGE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY ON MONDAY...WHILE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND NO AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW 70S WEST TO MID AND
EVEN UPPER 70S EAST (STILL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT OF RECORDS).
MIXING DEPTH IN NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS VARIES BY AS MUCH AS
2000 FT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.  WIND FIELDS WILL STILL BE QUITE
STRONG...WITH UP TO 50KT IN THE LOWEST 3000FT. HOW MUCH OF THAT WILL
BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT A
MINIMUM IT APPEARS GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD HIGHER GUSTS IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT AND
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS OUT OF REACH.  WILL CONTINUE MENTION
IN THE HWO.  WITH DEWPOINTS STILL ELEVATED IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN..SOME WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP.  HOWEVER... THERE IS NO
REAL SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR ASCENT...SO WILL JUST MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS IS A BIT
QUICKER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF..BUT ALL MODELS HAVE THE COLD FRONT EAST
OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM SUNDAY...

TUE-WED NIGHT: 1025 MB CONTINENTAL POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS TUE...THEN NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND TUE NIGHT
AND WED. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A COMPLEX POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH ALOFT WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE CENTRAL GOM TO THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...THEN UP SOUTHERN MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST ON WED. THE PREFERRED CLOSER TO THE COAST/MORE
WESTWARD SOLUTION FOR THE LOW TRACK FROM YESTERDAY HAS GAINED
INCREASING MODEL SUPPORT SINCE...WITH THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE
CANADIAN NOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING...LEAVING
THE NAM THE LONE WELL OFFSHORE/EASTERN OPERATIONAL OUTLIER.

WITH THE ABOVE FAVORED LOW TRACK IN MIND...THE RESULT WILL BE RAIN
DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A
COLD RAIN AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES...ON WED. THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND PRESENCE OF THE
CP HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO MIGRATE IN TANDEM UP THE
EAST COAST...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SNOW ON THE NW
SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY NOT MATERIALIZE UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES
PARALLEL TO THE LARGER METRO AREAS IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...FORECAST
PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES SPEND TIME IN THE "WINTRY MIXTURE" TO
"MEASURABLE SNOW WITH RAIN" PORTION OF THE NOMOGRAM AS THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO PULL AWAY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS WED. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES/
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE
PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD
LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY SECONDARY FACTORS SUCH AS PRECIPITATION
RATES/MELTING...WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR EVENTS THAT FALL IN THE
ABOVE-REFERENCED PORTIONS OF THE NOMOGRAM.

WITH THE ABOVE FACTORS IN MIND...THERE IS A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY
FOR WET SNOW TO AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY MIX IN TO WARRANT MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 IN THE
GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECAST. THE BREVITY AND INTERMITTENT NATURE OF
SNOW DURING OTHERWISE CHILLY RAIN...ABOVE FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES ( ALBEIT ONLY MARGINALLY)...RELATIVELY WARM SOIL
TEMPERATURES 9MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY)...AND WETNESS FROM THE RAIN
WILL ALL MAKE IT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT FOR ANY ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR.
NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL...HOWEVER...DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WED NIGHT...SO ANY MOISTURE ON THE ROADWAYS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
BLACK ICE THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING.

THU-SUN: BENEATH A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF
NC)...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FRONTAL ZONE BETWEEN THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT
NORTH AS THE FLOW ALOFT LOSES AMPLITUDE/RELAXES TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RESULTANT PATTERN OF RELAXING NW TO WNW
FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION FROM DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
TO DRY AND SEASONABLE ONES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT
SURGING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION HAVE PROGRESSED EAST OF THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS AS OF 03Z...AND WILL EXIT THE RDU/FAY/RWI
TERMINALS BETWEEN 04-05Z. IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT TO VFR BY
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON (15-18Z). HOWEVER...A RENEWED POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT EASTERN TERMINALS MON AFT INTO MON
NIGHT IN ASSOC/W A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
SSW/SW AND INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY 15-18Z
MONDAY AND REMAIN WINDY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO
~10 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY MONDAY EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD: A BRIEF RESPITE FROM SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ADVERSE
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
TUE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS/INTENSIFIES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW THU/THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...VINCENT





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