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000
FXUS62 KRAH 020710
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
309 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A STRONGER SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 258 AM WEDNESDAY...

TODAY AND TONIGHT... MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A DECK OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY...CONTINUES TO MOVE
SEWD AND BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WEAK HEIGHTS FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
MODERATELY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS AND T-STORMS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...AND ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL
THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK AND ONSET OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL INFLUENCE HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING SHOULD SEND TEMPS SOARING WELL INTO THE 80S-
AROUND 90 BY MID DAY WITH LOW-MID 90S COMMON BY MID AFTERNOON. IF
CLOUDS OCCUR A COUPLE HOURS SOONER ACROSS THE NORTH HALF...THEN MAX
TEMPS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S. FEEL FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT
MANY PLACES ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF WILL BE CLOSE TO 95 DEGREES.

ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY WANE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS UNDERGOES ITS NORMAL NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION. BULK OF
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO 06Z THOUGH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN THE COASTAL PLAIN UP TO SUNRISE. MIN TEMPS 67-
73.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 258 AM WEDNESDAY...

WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE SHOULD INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THURSDAY MORNING. HEATING OF THE AIR MASS
OVER CENTRAL NC SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE...THOUGH
WEAKER THAN THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TONIGHT...WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
LATE IN THE DAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN A SHOWER OR TWO BUT FEEL
THAT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO DAY...90-95 DEGREES...WITH MIN TEMPS THU
NIGHT 67-72.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER
WEAK IMPULSE IN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
OVERALL DEEP FLOW CONTINUES TO BE QUITE WEAK. GIVEN THIS AND RATHER
WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SEVERE
THREAT... WITH THE ONLY LIMITED THREAT FROM LOCALIZED.... MAINLY
URBAN... FLOODING AS PW/S ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1.75" OR SO ON
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER... WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES AS A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THUS... EXPECT LOW POPS (SLIGHT CHANCE) IN THE NORTHEAST...
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (CHANCE) IN THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW... WE WILL LIKELY START THE DAY WITH A GOOD
BIT OF CLOUD COVER/LOW STRATUS. GIVEN THE COOLER AIR MASS FROM THE
NORTH AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER... WILL GO WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S (AND THIS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM IN SPOTS). LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WHILE SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTHWESTWARD... YET STILL EXTENDING INTO OUR AREA... ALONG
WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST TO EASTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA... BUT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY (MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE) AND
GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S... COOLEST ON SUNDAY... WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 105 AM WEDNESDAY...

POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 07Z-
11Z ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAIN...EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS
OF CENTRAL NC. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION WHICH
MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH. THE CONVECTION
WILL BE SPARKED BY A SEWD MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
CROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR AT ANY ONE TAF SITES IS FAIRLY LOW BUT WILL MENTION VICINITY
SHOWER IN THE TRIAD TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR KRDU AND
KRWI EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK SUGGEST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH COULD SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING AND
FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO...COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE MAY CAUSE UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020710
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
309 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A STRONGER SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 258 AM WEDNESDAY...

TODAY AND TONIGHT... MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A DECK OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY...CONTINUES TO MOVE
SEWD AND BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WEAK HEIGHTS FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
MODERATELY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS AND T-STORMS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...AND ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL
THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK AND ONSET OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL INFLUENCE HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING SHOULD SEND TEMPS SOARING WELL INTO THE 80S-
AROUND 90 BY MID DAY WITH LOW-MID 90S COMMON BY MID AFTERNOON. IF
CLOUDS OCCUR A COUPLE HOURS SOONER ACROSS THE NORTH HALF...THEN MAX
TEMPS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S. FEEL FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT
MANY PLACES ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF WILL BE CLOSE TO 95 DEGREES.

ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY WANE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS UNDERGOES ITS NORMAL NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION. BULK OF
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO 06Z THOUGH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN THE COASTAL PLAIN UP TO SUNRISE. MIN TEMPS 67-
73.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 258 AM WEDNESDAY...

WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE SHOULD INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THURSDAY MORNING. HEATING OF THE AIR MASS
OVER CENTRAL NC SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE...THOUGH
WEAKER THAN THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TONIGHT...WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
LATE IN THE DAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN A SHOWER OR TWO BUT FEEL
THAT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO DAY...90-95 DEGREES...WITH MIN TEMPS THU
NIGHT 67-72.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER
WEAK IMPULSE IN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
OVERALL DEEP FLOW CONTINUES TO BE QUITE WEAK. GIVEN THIS AND RATHER
WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SEVERE
THREAT... WITH THE ONLY LIMITED THREAT FROM LOCALIZED.... MAINLY
URBAN... FLOODING AS PW/S ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1.75" OR SO ON
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER... WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES AS A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THUS... EXPECT LOW POPS (SLIGHT CHANCE) IN THE NORTHEAST...
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (CHANCE) IN THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW... WE WILL LIKELY START THE DAY WITH A GOOD
BIT OF CLOUD COVER/LOW STRATUS. GIVEN THE COOLER AIR MASS FROM THE
NORTH AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER... WILL GO WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S (AND THIS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM IN SPOTS). LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WHILE SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTHWESTWARD... YET STILL EXTENDING INTO OUR AREA... ALONG
WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST TO EASTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA... BUT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY (MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE) AND
GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S... COOLEST ON SUNDAY... WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 105 AM WEDNESDAY...

POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 07Z-
11Z ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAIN...EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS
OF CENTRAL NC. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION WHICH
MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH. THE CONVECTION
WILL BE SPARKED BY A SEWD MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
CROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR AT ANY ONE TAF SITES IS FAIRLY LOW BUT WILL MENTION VICINITY
SHOWER IN THE TRIAD TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR KRDU AND
KRWI EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK SUGGEST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH COULD SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING AND
FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO...COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE MAY CAUSE UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 020710
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
309 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A STRONGER SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 258 AM WEDNESDAY...

TODAY AND TONIGHT... MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A DECK OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY...CONTINUES TO MOVE
SEWD AND BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WEAK HEIGHTS FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
MODERATELY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS AND T-STORMS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...AND ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL
THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK AND ONSET OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL INFLUENCE HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING SHOULD SEND TEMPS SOARING WELL INTO THE 80S-
AROUND 90 BY MID DAY WITH LOW-MID 90S COMMON BY MID AFTERNOON. IF
CLOUDS OCCUR A COUPLE HOURS SOONER ACROSS THE NORTH HALF...THEN MAX
TEMPS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S. FEEL FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT
MANY PLACES ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF WILL BE CLOSE TO 95 DEGREES.

ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY WANE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS UNDERGOES ITS NORMAL NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION. BULK OF
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO 06Z THOUGH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN THE COASTAL PLAIN UP TO SUNRISE. MIN TEMPS 67-
73.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 258 AM WEDNESDAY...

WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE SHOULD INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THURSDAY MORNING. HEATING OF THE AIR MASS
OVER CENTRAL NC SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE...THOUGH
WEAKER THAN THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TONIGHT...WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
LATE IN THE DAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN A SHOWER OR TWO BUT FEEL
THAT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO DAY...90-95 DEGREES...WITH MIN TEMPS THU
NIGHT 67-72.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER
WEAK IMPULSE IN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
OVERALL DEEP FLOW CONTINUES TO BE QUITE WEAK. GIVEN THIS AND RATHER
WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SEVERE
THREAT... WITH THE ONLY LIMITED THREAT FROM LOCALIZED.... MAINLY
URBAN... FLOODING AS PW/S ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1.75" OR SO ON
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER... WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES AS A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THUS... EXPECT LOW POPS (SLIGHT CHANCE) IN THE NORTHEAST...
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (CHANCE) IN THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW... WE WILL LIKELY START THE DAY WITH A GOOD
BIT OF CLOUD COVER/LOW STRATUS. GIVEN THE COOLER AIR MASS FROM THE
NORTH AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER... WILL GO WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S (AND THIS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM IN SPOTS). LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WHILE SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTHWESTWARD... YET STILL EXTENDING INTO OUR AREA... ALONG
WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST TO EASTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA... BUT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY (MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE) AND
GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S... COOLEST ON SUNDAY... WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 105 AM WEDNESDAY...

POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 07Z-
11Z ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAIN...EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS
OF CENTRAL NC. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION WHICH
MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH. THE CONVECTION
WILL BE SPARKED BY A SEWD MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
CROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR AT ANY ONE TAF SITES IS FAIRLY LOW BUT WILL MENTION VICINITY
SHOWER IN THE TRIAD TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR KRDU AND
KRWI EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK SUGGEST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH COULD SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING AND
FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO...COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE MAY CAUSE UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 020710
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
309 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A STRONGER SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 258 AM WEDNESDAY...

TODAY AND TONIGHT... MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A DECK OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY...CONTINUES TO MOVE
SEWD AND BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WEAK HEIGHTS FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
MODERATELY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS AND T-STORMS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...AND ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL
THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK AND ONSET OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL INFLUENCE HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING SHOULD SEND TEMPS SOARING WELL INTO THE 80S-
AROUND 90 BY MID DAY WITH LOW-MID 90S COMMON BY MID AFTERNOON. IF
CLOUDS OCCUR A COUPLE HOURS SOONER ACROSS THE NORTH HALF...THEN MAX
TEMPS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S. FEEL FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT
MANY PLACES ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF WILL BE CLOSE TO 95 DEGREES.

ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY WANE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS UNDERGOES ITS NORMAL NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION. BULK OF
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO 06Z THOUGH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN THE COASTAL PLAIN UP TO SUNRISE. MIN TEMPS 67-
73.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 258 AM WEDNESDAY...

WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE SHOULD INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THURSDAY MORNING. HEATING OF THE AIR MASS
OVER CENTRAL NC SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE...THOUGH
WEAKER THAN THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TONIGHT...WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
LATE IN THE DAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN A SHOWER OR TWO BUT FEEL
THAT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO DAY...90-95 DEGREES...WITH MIN TEMPS THU
NIGHT 67-72.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER
WEAK IMPULSE IN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
OVERALL DEEP FLOW CONTINUES TO BE QUITE WEAK. GIVEN THIS AND RATHER
WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SEVERE
THREAT... WITH THE ONLY LIMITED THREAT FROM LOCALIZED.... MAINLY
URBAN... FLOODING AS PW/S ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1.75" OR SO ON
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER... WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES AS A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THUS... EXPECT LOW POPS (SLIGHT CHANCE) IN THE NORTHEAST...
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS (CHANCE) IN THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW... WE WILL LIKELY START THE DAY WITH A GOOD
BIT OF CLOUD COVER/LOW STRATUS. GIVEN THE COOLER AIR MASS FROM THE
NORTH AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER... WILL GO WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S (AND THIS MAY STILL BE TOO WARM IN SPOTS). LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WHILE SLOWLY
SINKING SOUTHWESTWARD... YET STILL EXTENDING INTO OUR AREA... ALONG
WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST TO EASTERN PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA... BUT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY (MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE) AND
GENERALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S... COOLEST ON SUNDAY... WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 105 AM WEDNESDAY...

POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 07Z-
11Z ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAIN...EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS
OF CENTRAL NC. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION WHICH
MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH. THE CONVECTION
WILL BE SPARKED BY A SEWD MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
CROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR AT ANY ONE TAF SITES IS FAIRLY LOW BUT WILL MENTION VICINITY
SHOWER IN THE TRIAD TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR KRDU AND
KRWI EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK SUGGEST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH COULD SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING AND
FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO...COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE MAY CAUSE UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020657
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
258 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A STRONGER SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 258 AM WEDNESDAY...

TODAY AND TONIGHT... MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A DECK OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY...CONTINUES TO MOVE
SEWD AND BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WEAK HEIGHTS FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
MODERATELY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS AND T-STORMS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...AND ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL
THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK AND ONSET OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL INFLUENCE HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING SHOULD SEND TEMPS SOARING WELL INTO THE 80S-
AROUND 90 BY MID DAY WITH LOW-MID 90S COMMON BY MID AFTERNOON. IF
CLOUDS OCCUR A COUPLE HOURS SOONER ACROSS THE NORTH HALF...THEN MAX
TEMPS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S. FEEL FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT
MANY PLACES ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF WILL BE CLOSE TO 95 DEGREES.

ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY WANE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS UNDERGOES ITS NORMAL NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION. BULK OF
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO 06Z THOUGH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN THE COASTAL PLAIN UP TO SUNRISE. MIN TEMPS 67-
73.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 258 AM WEDNESDAY...

WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE SHOULD INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THURSDAY MORNING. HEATING OF THE AIR MASS
OVER CENTRAL NC SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE...THOUGH
WEAKER THAN THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TONIGHT...WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
LATE IN THE DAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN A SHOWER OR TWO BUT FEEL
THAT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO DAY...90-95 DEGREES...WITH MIN TEMPS THU
NIGHT 67-72.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...

A GENERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG
TERM WITH A COUPLE OF SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FEATURES THAT WILL HELP
DRIVE SOME OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER BUT IN GENERAL A LONG TERM
FORECAST WROUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY.

AFTER THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF FACTORS SUPPORTING THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION OVER NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PREFER THE EURO SOLUTION KEEPING
US DRY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY EVENING...PROVIDING SOME FORCING
FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S AND LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES. FOR THE WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL DROP TO
THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 105 AM WEDNESDAY...

POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 07Z-
11Z ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAIN...EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS
OF CENTRAL NC. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION WHICH
MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH. THE CONVECTION
WILL BE SPARKED BY A SEWD MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
CROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR AT ANY ONE TAF SITES IS FAIRLY LOW BUT WILL MENTION VICINITY
SHOWER IN THE TRIAD TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR KRDU AND
KRWI EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK SUGGEST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH COULD SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING AND
FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO...COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE MAY CAUSE UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020657
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
258 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A STRONGER SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 258 AM WEDNESDAY...

TODAY AND TONIGHT... MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A DECK OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY...CONTINUES TO MOVE
SEWD AND BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WEAK HEIGHTS FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
MODERATELY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS AND T-STORMS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...AND ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL
THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK AND ONSET OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL INFLUENCE HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING SHOULD SEND TEMPS SOARING WELL INTO THE 80S-
AROUND 90 BY MID DAY WITH LOW-MID 90S COMMON BY MID AFTERNOON. IF
CLOUDS OCCUR A COUPLE HOURS SOONER ACROSS THE NORTH HALF...THEN MAX
TEMPS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S. FEEL FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT
MANY PLACES ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF WILL BE CLOSE TO 95 DEGREES.

ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY WANE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS UNDERGOES ITS NORMAL NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION. BULK OF
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO 06Z THOUGH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN THE COASTAL PLAIN UP TO SUNRISE. MIN TEMPS 67-
73.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 258 AM WEDNESDAY...

WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE SHOULD INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THURSDAY MORNING. HEATING OF THE AIR MASS
OVER CENTRAL NC SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE...THOUGH
WEAKER THAN THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TONIGHT...WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
LATE IN THE DAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN A SHOWER OR TWO BUT FEEL
THAT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO DAY...90-95 DEGREES...WITH MIN TEMPS THU
NIGHT 67-72.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...

A GENERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG
TERM WITH A COUPLE OF SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FEATURES THAT WILL HELP
DRIVE SOME OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER BUT IN GENERAL A LONG TERM
FORECAST WROUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY.

AFTER THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF FACTORS SUPPORTING THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION OVER NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PREFER THE EURO SOLUTION KEEPING
US DRY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY EVENING...PROVIDING SOME FORCING
FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S AND LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES. FOR THE WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL DROP TO
THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 105 AM WEDNESDAY...

POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 07Z-
11Z ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAIN...EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS
OF CENTRAL NC. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION WHICH
MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH. THE CONVECTION
WILL BE SPARKED BY A SEWD MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
CROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR AT ANY ONE TAF SITES IS FAIRLY LOW BUT WILL MENTION VICINITY
SHOWER IN THE TRIAD TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR KRDU AND
KRWI EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK SUGGEST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH COULD SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING AND
FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO...COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE MAY CAUSE UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 020657
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
258 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A STRONGER SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 258 AM WEDNESDAY...

TODAY AND TONIGHT... MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A DECK OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY...CONTINUES TO MOVE
SEWD AND BEGINS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WEAK HEIGHTS FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
MODERATELY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS AND T-STORMS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...AND ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL
THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE THICKER CLOUD DECK AND ONSET OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL INFLUENCE HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE THIS MORNING SHOULD SEND TEMPS SOARING WELL INTO THE 80S-
AROUND 90 BY MID DAY WITH LOW-MID 90S COMMON BY MID AFTERNOON. IF
CLOUDS OCCUR A COUPLE HOURS SOONER ACROSS THE NORTH HALF...THEN MAX
TEMPS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S. FEEL FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT
MANY PLACES ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF WILL BE CLOSE TO 95 DEGREES.

ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY WANE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS UNDERGOES ITS NORMAL NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION. BULK OF
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR TO 06Z THOUGH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN THE COASTAL PLAIN UP TO SUNRISE. MIN TEMPS 67-
73.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 258 AM WEDNESDAY...

WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE SHOULD INHIBIT
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THURSDAY MORNING. HEATING OF THE AIR MASS
OVER CENTRAL NC SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION ABOUT ANYWHERE IN
THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE...THOUGH
WEAKER THAN THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TONIGHT...WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
LATE IN THE DAY AND CROSS CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN A SHOWER OR TWO BUT FEEL
THAT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY NIGHT. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY
SHOULD BE COMPARABLE TO DAY...90-95 DEGREES...WITH MIN TEMPS THU
NIGHT 67-72.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...

A GENERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG
TERM WITH A COUPLE OF SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FEATURES THAT WILL HELP
DRIVE SOME OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER BUT IN GENERAL A LONG TERM
FORECAST WROUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY.

AFTER THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF FACTORS SUPPORTING THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION OVER NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PREFER THE EURO SOLUTION KEEPING
US DRY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY EVENING...PROVIDING SOME FORCING
FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S AND LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES. FOR THE WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL DROP TO
THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 105 AM WEDNESDAY...

POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 07Z-
11Z ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAIN...EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS
OF CENTRAL NC. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION WHICH
MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH. THE CONVECTION
WILL BE SPARKED BY A SEWD MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
CROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR AT ANY ONE TAF SITES IS FAIRLY LOW BUT WILL MENTION VICINITY
SHOWER IN THE TRIAD TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR KRDU AND
KRWI EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK SUGGEST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH COULD SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING AND
FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO...COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE MAY CAUSE UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 020504
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
105 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A STRONGER SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 852 PM TUESDAY...

THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT EVEN THE HIGH THIN CIRRUS
WERE THINNING MORE AND DISSIPATING. NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED
AREAS OF CIRRUS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINED OVER THE PIEDMONT. DEW POINTS WERE UP CONSIDERABLY INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S IN ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND NORTH PIEDMONT
WHERE SOME UPPER 60S RESIDED. TEMPERATURES AT 900 PM RANGED IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE PROBLEM OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THE EXPECTED FAIR SKIES UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE... AND THE HIGH DEW POINTS WILL BE THE GROUND FOG
POTENTIAL. CERTAINLY THE HOT SUN THIS AFTERNOON DID SOME EVAPORATION
FROM THE RAIN FROM MONDAY ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.35. HOWEVER...
THERE WAS STILL PLENTY OF RESIDUAL TOP SOIL MOISTURE TO GO AROUND IN
70 PERCENT OF THE AREA. THEREFORE... SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS
LIKELY... BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LOWS
GENERALLY 1-3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT YIELDS 68-74.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

THE LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND DROP TO
THE SE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE NAM DEPICTS
1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR RISING TO AROUND 25
KTS LATE WED AFTERNOON... NOT GREAT BUT BETTER THAN WE`RE LIKELY TO
SEE AT OTHER TIMES THIS WEEK... ALTHOUGH THE NAM MAY BE A TAD TOO
HIGH WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS. WITH AN OVERALL WEAK WIND FIELD...
LACK OF HIGH-LEVEL FORCING FEATURES... BARELY-NEAR-NORMAL PW... AND
VERY LITTLE NEAR-SURFACE MASS CONVERGENCE... DON`T EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DESPITE THE DPVA ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE`S
PASSAGE. FOLLOWING THE TIMING AMONG THE NAM/GFS/SREF/NCAR ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT... WILL BRING ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE FAR NW CWA AFTER
18Z... SPREADING INTO THE REST OF THE PIEDMONT AFTER 21Z AND
INCREASING TO 20-30%... THEN PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING... BEFORE ENDING AS MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE FAR SE CWA LATE WED NIGHT. WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE SUBSIDENT
AREA POST-WAVE ON THU... WITH THE WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS STRETCHED
OVER THE SRN NC BORDER AREA... SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
COVERAGE AT MOST. THICKNESSES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...
SUGGESTING HIGHS AROUND 90 TO 95 BOTH DAYS... IN LINE WITH
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. LOWS WED NIGHT NEAR 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...

A GENERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG
TERM WITH A COUPLE OF SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FEATURES THAT WILL HELP
DRIVE SOME OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER BUT IN GENERAL A LONG TERM
FORECAST WROUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY.

AFTER THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF FACTORS SUPPORTING THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION OVER NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PREFER THE EURO SOLUTION KEEPING
US DRY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY EVENING...PROVIDING SOME FORCING
FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S AND LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES. FOR THE WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL DROP TO
THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 105 AM WEDNESDAY...

POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 07Z-
11Z ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAIN...EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS
OF CENTRAL NC. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION WHICH
MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH. THE CONVECTION
WILL BE SPARKED BY A SEWD MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
CROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR AT ANY ONE TAF SITES IS FAIRLY LOW BUT WILL MENTION VICINITY
SHOWER IN THE TRIAD TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR KRDU AND
KRWI EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK SUGGEST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH COULD SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING AND
FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO...COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE MAY CAUSE UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020504
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
105 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A STRONGER SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 852 PM TUESDAY...

THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT EVEN THE HIGH THIN CIRRUS
WERE THINNING MORE AND DISSIPATING. NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED
AREAS OF CIRRUS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINED OVER THE PIEDMONT. DEW POINTS WERE UP CONSIDERABLY INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S IN ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND NORTH PIEDMONT
WHERE SOME UPPER 60S RESIDED. TEMPERATURES AT 900 PM RANGED IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE PROBLEM OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THE EXPECTED FAIR SKIES UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE... AND THE HIGH DEW POINTS WILL BE THE GROUND FOG
POTENTIAL. CERTAINLY THE HOT SUN THIS AFTERNOON DID SOME EVAPORATION
FROM THE RAIN FROM MONDAY ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.35. HOWEVER...
THERE WAS STILL PLENTY OF RESIDUAL TOP SOIL MOISTURE TO GO AROUND IN
70 PERCENT OF THE AREA. THEREFORE... SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS
LIKELY... BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LOWS
GENERALLY 1-3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT YIELDS 68-74.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

THE LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND DROP TO
THE SE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE NAM DEPICTS
1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR RISING TO AROUND 25
KTS LATE WED AFTERNOON... NOT GREAT BUT BETTER THAN WE`RE LIKELY TO
SEE AT OTHER TIMES THIS WEEK... ALTHOUGH THE NAM MAY BE A TAD TOO
HIGH WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS. WITH AN OVERALL WEAK WIND FIELD...
LACK OF HIGH-LEVEL FORCING FEATURES... BARELY-NEAR-NORMAL PW... AND
VERY LITTLE NEAR-SURFACE MASS CONVERGENCE... DON`T EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DESPITE THE DPVA ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE`S
PASSAGE. FOLLOWING THE TIMING AMONG THE NAM/GFS/SREF/NCAR ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT... WILL BRING ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE FAR NW CWA AFTER
18Z... SPREADING INTO THE REST OF THE PIEDMONT AFTER 21Z AND
INCREASING TO 20-30%... THEN PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING... BEFORE ENDING AS MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE FAR SE CWA LATE WED NIGHT. WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE SUBSIDENT
AREA POST-WAVE ON THU... WITH THE WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS STRETCHED
OVER THE SRN NC BORDER AREA... SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
COVERAGE AT MOST. THICKNESSES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...
SUGGESTING HIGHS AROUND 90 TO 95 BOTH DAYS... IN LINE WITH
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. LOWS WED NIGHT NEAR 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...

A GENERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG
TERM WITH A COUPLE OF SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FEATURES THAT WILL HELP
DRIVE SOME OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER BUT IN GENERAL A LONG TERM
FORECAST WROUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY.

AFTER THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF FACTORS SUPPORTING THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION OVER NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PREFER THE EURO SOLUTION KEEPING
US DRY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY EVENING...PROVIDING SOME FORCING
FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S AND LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES. FOR THE WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL DROP TO
THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 105 AM WEDNESDAY...

POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 07Z-
11Z ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAIN...EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS
OF CENTRAL NC. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION WHICH
MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH. THE CONVECTION
WILL BE SPARKED BY A SEWD MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
CROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR AT ANY ONE TAF SITES IS FAIRLY LOW BUT WILL MENTION VICINITY
SHOWER IN THE TRIAD TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR KRDU AND
KRWI EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK SUGGEST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH COULD SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING AND
FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO...COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE MAY CAUSE UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 020504
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
105 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A STRONGER SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 852 PM TUESDAY...

THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT EVEN THE HIGH THIN CIRRUS
WERE THINNING MORE AND DISSIPATING. NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED
AREAS OF CIRRUS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINED OVER THE PIEDMONT. DEW POINTS WERE UP CONSIDERABLY INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S IN ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND NORTH PIEDMONT
WHERE SOME UPPER 60S RESIDED. TEMPERATURES AT 900 PM RANGED IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE PROBLEM OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THE EXPECTED FAIR SKIES UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE... AND THE HIGH DEW POINTS WILL BE THE GROUND FOG
POTENTIAL. CERTAINLY THE HOT SUN THIS AFTERNOON DID SOME EVAPORATION
FROM THE RAIN FROM MONDAY ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.35. HOWEVER...
THERE WAS STILL PLENTY OF RESIDUAL TOP SOIL MOISTURE TO GO AROUND IN
70 PERCENT OF THE AREA. THEREFORE... SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS
LIKELY... BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LOWS
GENERALLY 1-3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT YIELDS 68-74.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

THE LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND DROP TO
THE SE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE NAM DEPICTS
1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR RISING TO AROUND 25
KTS LATE WED AFTERNOON... NOT GREAT BUT BETTER THAN WE`RE LIKELY TO
SEE AT OTHER TIMES THIS WEEK... ALTHOUGH THE NAM MAY BE A TAD TOO
HIGH WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS. WITH AN OVERALL WEAK WIND FIELD...
LACK OF HIGH-LEVEL FORCING FEATURES... BARELY-NEAR-NORMAL PW... AND
VERY LITTLE NEAR-SURFACE MASS CONVERGENCE... DON`T EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DESPITE THE DPVA ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE`S
PASSAGE. FOLLOWING THE TIMING AMONG THE NAM/GFS/SREF/NCAR ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT... WILL BRING ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE FAR NW CWA AFTER
18Z... SPREADING INTO THE REST OF THE PIEDMONT AFTER 21Z AND
INCREASING TO 20-30%... THEN PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING... BEFORE ENDING AS MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE FAR SE CWA LATE WED NIGHT. WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE SUBSIDENT
AREA POST-WAVE ON THU... WITH THE WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS STRETCHED
OVER THE SRN NC BORDER AREA... SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
COVERAGE AT MOST. THICKNESSES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...
SUGGESTING HIGHS AROUND 90 TO 95 BOTH DAYS... IN LINE WITH
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. LOWS WED NIGHT NEAR 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...

A GENERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG
TERM WITH A COUPLE OF SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FEATURES THAT WILL HELP
DRIVE SOME OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER BUT IN GENERAL A LONG TERM
FORECAST WROUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY.

AFTER THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF FACTORS SUPPORTING THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION OVER NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PREFER THE EURO SOLUTION KEEPING
US DRY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY EVENING...PROVIDING SOME FORCING
FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S AND LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES. FOR THE WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL DROP TO
THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 105 AM WEDNESDAY...

POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 07Z-
11Z ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAIN...EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS
OF CENTRAL NC. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION WHICH
MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH. THE CONVECTION
WILL BE SPARKED BY A SEWD MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
CROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR AT ANY ONE TAF SITES IS FAIRLY LOW BUT WILL MENTION VICINITY
SHOWER IN THE TRIAD TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR KRDU AND
KRWI EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK SUGGEST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH COULD SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING AND
FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO...COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE MAY CAUSE UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020504
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
105 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A STRONGER SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 852 PM TUESDAY...

THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT EVEN THE HIGH THIN CIRRUS
WERE THINNING MORE AND DISSIPATING. NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED
AREAS OF CIRRUS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINED OVER THE PIEDMONT. DEW POINTS WERE UP CONSIDERABLY INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S IN ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND NORTH PIEDMONT
WHERE SOME UPPER 60S RESIDED. TEMPERATURES AT 900 PM RANGED IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE PROBLEM OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THE EXPECTED FAIR SKIES UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE... AND THE HIGH DEW POINTS WILL BE THE GROUND FOG
POTENTIAL. CERTAINLY THE HOT SUN THIS AFTERNOON DID SOME EVAPORATION
FROM THE RAIN FROM MONDAY ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.35. HOWEVER...
THERE WAS STILL PLENTY OF RESIDUAL TOP SOIL MOISTURE TO GO AROUND IN
70 PERCENT OF THE AREA. THEREFORE... SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS
LIKELY... BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LOWS
GENERALLY 1-3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT YIELDS 68-74.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

THE LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND DROP TO
THE SE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE NAM DEPICTS
1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR RISING TO AROUND 25
KTS LATE WED AFTERNOON... NOT GREAT BUT BETTER THAN WE`RE LIKELY TO
SEE AT OTHER TIMES THIS WEEK... ALTHOUGH THE NAM MAY BE A TAD TOO
HIGH WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS. WITH AN OVERALL WEAK WIND FIELD...
LACK OF HIGH-LEVEL FORCING FEATURES... BARELY-NEAR-NORMAL PW... AND
VERY LITTLE NEAR-SURFACE MASS CONVERGENCE... DON`T EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DESPITE THE DPVA ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE`S
PASSAGE. FOLLOWING THE TIMING AMONG THE NAM/GFS/SREF/NCAR ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT... WILL BRING ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE FAR NW CWA AFTER
18Z... SPREADING INTO THE REST OF THE PIEDMONT AFTER 21Z AND
INCREASING TO 20-30%... THEN PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING... BEFORE ENDING AS MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE FAR SE CWA LATE WED NIGHT. WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE SUBSIDENT
AREA POST-WAVE ON THU... WITH THE WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS STRETCHED
OVER THE SRN NC BORDER AREA... SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
COVERAGE AT MOST. THICKNESSES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...
SUGGESTING HIGHS AROUND 90 TO 95 BOTH DAYS... IN LINE WITH
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. LOWS WED NIGHT NEAR 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...

A GENERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG
TERM WITH A COUPLE OF SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FEATURES THAT WILL HELP
DRIVE SOME OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER BUT IN GENERAL A LONG TERM
FORECAST WROUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY.

AFTER THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF FACTORS SUPPORTING THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION OVER NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PREFER THE EURO SOLUTION KEEPING
US DRY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY EVENING...PROVIDING SOME FORCING
FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S AND LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES. FOR THE WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL DROP TO
THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 105 AM WEDNESDAY...

POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 07Z-
11Z ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAIN...EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS
OF CENTRAL NC. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION WHICH
MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH. THE CONVECTION
WILL BE SPARKED BY A SEWD MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
CROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR AT ANY ONE TAF SITES IS FAIRLY LOW BUT WILL MENTION VICINITY
SHOWER IN THE TRIAD TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR KRDU AND
KRWI EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK SUGGEST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH COULD SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING AND
FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO...COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE MAY CAUSE UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 020059
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
852 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION BRINING COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 852 PM TUESDAY...

THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT EVEN THE HIGH THIN CIRRUS
WERE THINNING MORE AND DISSIPATING. NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED
AREAS OF CIRRUS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINED OVER THE PIEDMONT. DEW POINTS WERE UP CONSIDERABLY INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S IN ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND NORTH PIEDMONT
WHERE SOME UPPER 60S RESIDED. TEMPERATURES AT 900 PM RANGED IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE PROBLEM OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THE EXPECTED FAIR SKIES UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE... AND THE HIGH DEW POINTS WILL BE THE GROUND FOG
POTENTIAL. CERTAINLY THE HOT SUN THIS AFTERNOON DID SOME EVAPORATION
FROM THE RAIN FROM MONDAY ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.35. HOWEVER...
THERE WAS STILL PLENTY OF RESIDUAL TOP SOIL MOISTURE TO GO AROUND IN
70 PERCENT OF THE AREA. THEREFORE... SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS
LIKELY... BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LOWS
GENERALLY 1-3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT YIELDS 68-74.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

THE LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND DROP TO
THE SE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE NAM DEPICTS
1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR RISING TO AROUND 25
KTS LATE WED AFTERNOON... NOT GREAT BUT BETTER THAN WE`RE LIKELY TO
SEE AT OTHER TIMES THIS WEEK... ALTHOUGH THE NAM MAY BE A TAD TOO
HIGH WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS. WITH AN OVERALL WEAK WIND FIELD...
LACK OF HIGH-LEVEL FORCING FEATURES... BARELY-NEAR-NORMAL PW... AND
VERY LITTLE NEAR-SURFACE MASS CONVERGENCE... DON`T EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DESPITE THE DPVA ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE`S
PASSAGE. FOLLOWING THE TIMING AMONG THE NAM/GFS/SREF/NCAR ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT... WILL BRING ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE FAR NW CWA AFTER
18Z... SPREADING INTO THE REST OF THE PIEDMONT AFTER 21Z AND
INCREASING TO 20-30%... THEN PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING... BEFORE ENDING AS MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE FAR SE CWA LATE WED NIGHT. WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE SUBSIDENT
AREA POST-WAVE ON THU... WITH THE WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS STRETCHED
OVER THE SRN NC BORDER AREA... SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
COVERAGE AT MOST. THICKNESSES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...
SUGGESTING HIGHS AROUND 90 TO 95 BOTH DAYS... IN LINE WITH
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. LOWS WED NIGHT NEAR 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...

A GENERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG
TERM WITH A COUPLE OF SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FEATURES THAT WILL HELP
DRIVE SOME OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER BUT IN GENERAL A LONG TERM
FORECAST WROUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY.

AFTER THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF FACTORS SUPPORTING THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION OVER NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PREFER THE EURO SOLUTION KEEPING
US DRY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY EVENING...PROVIDING SOME FORCING
FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S AND LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES. FOR THE WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL DROP TO
THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 545 PM TUESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR VISBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (08-12Z) WEDNESDAY
MORNING AT THE RDU/FAY/RWI TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE PRESENT AT
ALL TERMINALS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CENTERED NEAR THE IN/OH
BORDER AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON) TRACKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
VIRGINIAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION
WILL EVEN DEVELOP DUE TO POOR DIURNAL TIMING. A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY FRI INTO SAT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 020059
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
852 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION BRINING COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 852 PM TUESDAY...

THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT EVEN THE HIGH THIN CIRRUS
WERE THINNING MORE AND DISSIPATING. NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED
AREAS OF CIRRUS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINED OVER THE PIEDMONT. DEW POINTS WERE UP CONSIDERABLY INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S IN ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND NORTH PIEDMONT
WHERE SOME UPPER 60S RESIDED. TEMPERATURES AT 900 PM RANGED IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE PROBLEM OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THE EXPECTED FAIR SKIES UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE... AND THE HIGH DEW POINTS WILL BE THE GROUND FOG
POTENTIAL. CERTAINLY THE HOT SUN THIS AFTERNOON DID SOME EVAPORATION
FROM THE RAIN FROM MONDAY ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.35. HOWEVER...
THERE WAS STILL PLENTY OF RESIDUAL TOP SOIL MOISTURE TO GO AROUND IN
70 PERCENT OF THE AREA. THEREFORE... SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS
LIKELY... BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LOWS
GENERALLY 1-3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT YIELDS 68-74.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

THE LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND DROP TO
THE SE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE NAM DEPICTS
1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR RISING TO AROUND 25
KTS LATE WED AFTERNOON... NOT GREAT BUT BETTER THAN WE`RE LIKELY TO
SEE AT OTHER TIMES THIS WEEK... ALTHOUGH THE NAM MAY BE A TAD TOO
HIGH WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS. WITH AN OVERALL WEAK WIND FIELD...
LACK OF HIGH-LEVEL FORCING FEATURES... BARELY-NEAR-NORMAL PW... AND
VERY LITTLE NEAR-SURFACE MASS CONVERGENCE... DON`T EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DESPITE THE DPVA ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE`S
PASSAGE. FOLLOWING THE TIMING AMONG THE NAM/GFS/SREF/NCAR ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT... WILL BRING ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE FAR NW CWA AFTER
18Z... SPREADING INTO THE REST OF THE PIEDMONT AFTER 21Z AND
INCREASING TO 20-30%... THEN PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING... BEFORE ENDING AS MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE FAR SE CWA LATE WED NIGHT. WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE SUBSIDENT
AREA POST-WAVE ON THU... WITH THE WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS STRETCHED
OVER THE SRN NC BORDER AREA... SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
COVERAGE AT MOST. THICKNESSES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...
SUGGESTING HIGHS AROUND 90 TO 95 BOTH DAYS... IN LINE WITH
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. LOWS WED NIGHT NEAR 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...

A GENERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG
TERM WITH A COUPLE OF SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FEATURES THAT WILL HELP
DRIVE SOME OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER BUT IN GENERAL A LONG TERM
FORECAST WROUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY.

AFTER THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF FACTORS SUPPORTING THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION OVER NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PREFER THE EURO SOLUTION KEEPING
US DRY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY EVENING...PROVIDING SOME FORCING
FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S AND LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES. FOR THE WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL DROP TO
THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 545 PM TUESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR VISBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (08-12Z) WEDNESDAY
MORNING AT THE RDU/FAY/RWI TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE PRESENT AT
ALL TERMINALS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CENTERED NEAR THE IN/OH
BORDER AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON) TRACKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
VIRGINIAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION
WILL EVEN DEVELOP DUE TO POOR DIURNAL TIMING. A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY FRI INTO SAT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 012143
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
543 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY... BUT OTHERWISE DEEP HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY... BRINGING HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...

A QUIET EVENING AND NIGHT AHEAD. PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL WITH DRY AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE REGION.
BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING HOLDS OVER CENTRAL NC AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FEATURE OF INTEREST... THE POTENT VORTEX NOW OVER EAST-CENTRAL
INDIANA. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS TN/KY/WV
WILL HOLD IN PLACE TONIGHT... WITH VERY WEAK AND DIFFUSE TROUGHING
OVER ERN NC HAVING LITTLE IMPACT GIVEN THE WEAK WIND FIELD. WILL
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE SE CWA INTO
EARLY EVENING AS THE CU FIELD IS PRONOUNCED HERE... BUT EXPECT VERY
LITTLE COVERAGE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF ANY MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND
LOW SHEAR WITHOUT A CONVECTIVE FOCUS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT... TRENDING TOWARD THE LATTER LATE TONIGHT
OVER THE NORTH AND WEST CWA WHERE BLOWOFF HIGH CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTION OFF THE TX/LA COAST MAY SPREAD IN... AS SUGGESTED BY THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR. FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AS THIS
MORNING BUT THE EASTERN SECTIONS (WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL STAY
ELEVATED) COULD STILL SEE LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT WITH ANY DENSE FOG
ISOLATED IN NATURE AND CONFINED TO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED LOW-
LYING AREAS OVER THE NE CWA. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH
GENERALLY CALM WINDS. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

THE LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND DROP TO
THE SE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE NAM DEPICTS
1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR RISING TO AROUND 25
KTS LATE WED AFTERNOON... NOT GREAT BUT BETTER THAN WE`RE LIKELY TO
SEE AT OTHER TIMES THIS WEEK... ALTHOUGH THE NAM MAY BE A TAD TOO
HIGH WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS. WITH AN OVERALL WEAK WIND FIELD...
LACK OF HIGH-LEVEL FORCING FEATURES... BARELY-NEAR-NORMAL PW... AND
VERY LITTLE NEAR-SURFACE MASS CONVERGENCE... DON`T EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DESPITE THE DPVA ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE`S
PASSAGE. FOLLOWING THE TIMING AMONG THE NAM/GFS/SREF/NCAR ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT... WILL BRING ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE FAR NW CWA AFTER
18Z... SPREADING INTO THE REST OF THE PIEDMONT AFTER 21Z AND
INCREASING TO 20-30%... THEN PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING... BEFORE ENDING AS MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE FAR SE CWA LATE WED NIGHT. WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE SUBSIDENT
AREA POST-WAVE ON THU... WITH THE WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS STRETCHED
OVER THE SRN NC BORDER AREA... SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
COVERAGE AT MOST. THICKNESSES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...
SUGGESTING HIGHS AROUND 90 TO 95 BOTH DAYS... IN LINE WITH
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. LOWS WED NIGHT NEAR 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...

A GENERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG
TERM WITH A COUPLE OF SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FEATURES THAT WILL HELP
DRIVE SOME OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER BUT IN GENERAL A LONG TERM
FORECAST WROUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY.

AFTER THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF FACTORS SUPPORTING THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION OVER NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PREFER THE EURO SOLUTION KEEPING
US DRY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY EVENING...PROVIDING SOME FORCING
FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S AND LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES. FOR THE WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL DROP TO
THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 545 PM TUESDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR VISBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (08-12Z) WEDNESDAY
MORNING AT THE RDU/FAY/RWI TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD: A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE PRESENT AT
ALL TERMINALS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (CENTERED NEAR THE IN/OH
BORDER AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON) TRACKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
VIRGINIAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION
WILL EVEN DEVELOP DUE TO POOR DIURNAL TIMING. A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY FRI INTO SAT. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 011834
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY... BUT OTHERWISE DEEP HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY... BRINGING HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...

A QUIET EVENING AND NIGHT AHEAD. PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL WITH DRY AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE REGION.
BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING HOLDS OVER CENTRAL NC AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FEATURE OF INTEREST... THE POTENT VORTEX NOW OVER EAST-CENTRAL
INDIANA. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS TN/KY/WV
WILL HOLD IN PLACE TONIGHT... WITH VERY WEAK AND DIFFUSE TROUGHING
OVER ERN NC HAVING LITTLE IMPACT GIVEN THE WEAK WIND FIELD. WILL
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE SE CWA INTO
EARLY EVENING AS THE CU FIELD IS PRONOUNCED HERE... BUT EXPECT VERY
LITTLE COVERAGE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF ANY MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND
LOW SHEAR WITHOUT A CONVECTIVE FOCUS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT... TRENDING TOWARD THE LATTER LATE TONIGHT
OVER THE NORTH AND WEST CWA WHERE BLOWOFF HIGH CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTION OFF THE TX/LA COAST MAY SPREAD IN... AS SUGGESTED BY THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR. FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AS THIS
MORNING BUT THE EASTERN SECTIONS (WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL STAY
ELEVATED) COULD STILL SEE LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT WITH ANY DENSE FOG
ISOLATED IN NATURE AND CONFINED TO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED LOW-
LYING AREAS OVER THE NE CWA. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH
GENERALLY CALM WINDS. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

THE LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND DROP TO
THE SE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE NAM DEPICTS
1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR RISING TO AROUND 25
KTS LATE WED AFTERNOON... NOT GREAT BUT BETTER THAN WE`RE LIKELY TO
SEE AT OTHER TIMES THIS WEEK... ALTHOUGH THE NAM MAY BE A TAD TOO
HIGH WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS. WITH AN OVERALL WEAK WIND FIELD...
LACK OF HIGH-LEVEL FORCING FEATURES... BARELY-NEAR-NORMAL PW... AND
VERY LITTLE NEAR-SURFACE MASS CONVERGENCE... DON`T EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DESPITE THE DPVA ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE`S
PASSAGE. FOLLOWING THE TIMING AMONG THE NAM/GFS/SREF/NCAR ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT... WILL BRING ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE FAR NW CWA AFTER
18Z... SPREADING INTO THE REST OF THE PIEDMONT AFTER 21Z AND
INCREASING TO 20-30%... THEN PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING... BEFORE ENDING AS MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE FAR SE CWA LATE WED NIGHT. WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE SUBSIDENT
AREA POST-WAVE ON THU... WITH THE WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS STRETCHED
OVER THE SRN NC BORDER AREA... SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
COVERAGE AT MOST. THICKNESSES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...
SUGGESTING HIGHS AROUND 90 TO 95 BOTH DAYS... IN LINE WITH
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. LOWS WED NIGHT NEAR 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...

A GENERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG
TERM WITH A COUPLE OF SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FEATURES THAT WILL HELP
DRIVE SOME OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER BUT IN GENERAL A LONG TERM
FORECAST WROUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY.

AFTER THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF FACTORS SUPPORTING THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION OVER NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PREFER THE EURO SOLUTION KEEPING
US DRY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY EVENING...PROVIDING SOME FORCING
FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S AND LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES. FOR THE WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL DROP TO
THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINAL FORECAST
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS MORNING`S FOG AND STRATUS
AFFECTING EASTERN TERMINALS HAS LIFTED AND BECOME SCATTERED... AND
ANY CIGS TODAY PRODUCED BY HEATING WILL BE VFR. THESE DAYTIME CLOUDS
WILL THEN BREAK UP THIS EVENING... LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG 07Z-12Z TONIGHT AT RDU/FAY... WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF HEAVIER FOG AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AT RWI. WILL
INCLUDE A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG AT RDU/FAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED
MORNING... WITH IFR CHANCES AT RWI. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIFT
QUICKLY TO VFR BY 14Z WED MORNING.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC
FROM THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK... GENERATING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS... APART FROM ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SUB-VFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE
POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING AS EAST AND NORTHEAST
FLOW BRINGS LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011834
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY... BUT OTHERWISE DEEP HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY... BRINGING HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...

A QUIET EVENING AND NIGHT AHEAD. PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL WITH DRY AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE REGION.
BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING HOLDS OVER CENTRAL NC AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FEATURE OF INTEREST... THE POTENT VORTEX NOW OVER EAST-CENTRAL
INDIANA. AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS TN/KY/WV
WILL HOLD IN PLACE TONIGHT... WITH VERY WEAK AND DIFFUSE TROUGHING
OVER ERN NC HAVING LITTLE IMPACT GIVEN THE WEAK WIND FIELD. WILL
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE SE CWA INTO
EARLY EVENING AS THE CU FIELD IS PRONOUNCED HERE... BUT EXPECT VERY
LITTLE COVERAGE CONSIDERING THE LACK OF ANY MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND
LOW SHEAR WITHOUT A CONVECTIVE FOCUS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT... TRENDING TOWARD THE LATTER LATE TONIGHT
OVER THE NORTH AND WEST CWA WHERE BLOWOFF HIGH CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTION OFF THE TX/LA COAST MAY SPREAD IN... AS SUGGESTED BY THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR. FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AS THIS
MORNING BUT THE EASTERN SECTIONS (WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL STAY
ELEVATED) COULD STILL SEE LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT WITH ANY DENSE FOG
ISOLATED IN NATURE AND CONFINED TO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED LOW-
LYING AREAS OVER THE NE CWA. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH
GENERALLY CALM WINDS. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

THE LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND DROP TO
THE SE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE NAM DEPICTS
1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR RISING TO AROUND 25
KTS LATE WED AFTERNOON... NOT GREAT BUT BETTER THAN WE`RE LIKELY TO
SEE AT OTHER TIMES THIS WEEK... ALTHOUGH THE NAM MAY BE A TAD TOO
HIGH WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS. WITH AN OVERALL WEAK WIND FIELD...
LACK OF HIGH-LEVEL FORCING FEATURES... BARELY-NEAR-NORMAL PW... AND
VERY LITTLE NEAR-SURFACE MASS CONVERGENCE... DON`T EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DESPITE THE DPVA ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE`S
PASSAGE. FOLLOWING THE TIMING AMONG THE NAM/GFS/SREF/NCAR ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT... WILL BRING ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE FAR NW CWA AFTER
18Z... SPREADING INTO THE REST OF THE PIEDMONT AFTER 21Z AND
INCREASING TO 20-30%... THEN PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING... BEFORE ENDING AS MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE FAR SE CWA LATE WED NIGHT. WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE SUBSIDENT
AREA POST-WAVE ON THU... WITH THE WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS STRETCHED
OVER THE SRN NC BORDER AREA... SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
COVERAGE AT MOST. THICKNESSES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...
SUGGESTING HIGHS AROUND 90 TO 95 BOTH DAYS... IN LINE WITH
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. LOWS WED NIGHT NEAR 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...

A GENERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG
TERM WITH A COUPLE OF SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FEATURES THAT WILL HELP
DRIVE SOME OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER BUT IN GENERAL A LONG TERM
FORECAST WROUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY.

AFTER THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF FACTORS SUPPORTING THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION OVER NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PREFER THE EURO SOLUTION KEEPING
US DRY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY EVENING...PROVIDING SOME FORCING
FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S AND LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES. FOR THE WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL DROP TO
THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINAL FORECAST
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS MORNING`S FOG AND STRATUS
AFFECTING EASTERN TERMINALS HAS LIFTED AND BECOME SCATTERED... AND
ANY CIGS TODAY PRODUCED BY HEATING WILL BE VFR. THESE DAYTIME CLOUDS
WILL THEN BREAK UP THIS EVENING... LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG 07Z-12Z TONIGHT AT RDU/FAY... WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF HEAVIER FOG AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AT RWI. WILL
INCLUDE A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG AT RDU/FAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED
MORNING... WITH IFR CHANCES AT RWI. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIFT
QUICKLY TO VFR BY 14Z WED MORNING.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC
FROM THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK... GENERATING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS... APART FROM ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SUB-VFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE
POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING AS EAST AND NORTHEAST
FLOW BRINGS LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 011823
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
222 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY... BUT OTHERWISE DEEP HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY... BRINGING HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...

EXPECT A PRETTY QUIET DAY. LATEST SURFACE MAP STILL SHOWS A WEAK
MSLP PATTERN WITH TROUGHING OVER ERN NC AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST WEST OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS EXTENDING ACROSS WRN NC. MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE RISING TODAY IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH
(NOW MOVING OUT OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC) AND AHEAD OF THE POTENT
VORTEX OVER CENTRAL IN THAT WILL AFFECT US WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THU. IN ADDITION TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY DYNAMIC FEATURES TO FORCE
ASCENT... WE`RE ALSO LACKING MOISTURE AS PW VALUES ARE HOLDING NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL. WILL TRIM BACK EXISTING ISOLATED POPS IN THE ERN
CWA BUT WILL NEED TO RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
EXTREME SRN/SE CWA WHERE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOCALLY
GREATER NEAR THE WEAK TROUGH... AS SUGGESTED BY THE NSSL WRF AND
HRRR. WE SHOULD SEE DECENT HEATING TODAY OUTSIDE OF THE LIMITATIONS
CAUSED BY THE NOW-DISSIPATING FOG/STRATUS AND THIS AFTERNOON`S
DIURNAL FLAT CUMULUS... AND WITH MORNING THICKNESSES AT LEAST 5-10 M
ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S... NECESSITATING AN UPWARD NUDGE OF
PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO TO FORECAST HIGHS. -GIH

TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT WITH BROAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A SFC HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY ALLOW PATCHES OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT IT SHOULD NOT
BE AS EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS UPPER
60S-LOWER 70S. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT E-SE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD SLIGHTLY SHARPEN THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THUS...SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1...AND
IN VICINITY OF THE NW PIEDMONT (CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM). STILL...COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BOOST TEMPS TO NEAR 90-
LOWER 90S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AND DRIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY INITIATE/SUSTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER THE NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIN
TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...

A GENERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG
TERM WITH A COUPLE OF SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FEATURES THAT WILL HELP
DRIVE SOME OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER BUT IN GENERAL A LONG TERM
FORECAST WROUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY.

AFTER THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF FACTORS SUPPORTING THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION OVER NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PREFER THE EURO SOLUTION KEEPING
US DRY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY EVENING...PROVIDING SOME FORCING
FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S AND LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES. FOR THE WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL DROP TO
THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINAL FORECAST
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS MORNING`S FOG AND STRATUS
AFFECTING EASTERN TERMINALS HAS LIFTED AND BECOME SCATTERED... AND
ANY CIGS TODAY PRODUCED BY HEATING WILL BE VFR. THESE DAYTIME CLOUDS
WILL THEN BREAK UP THIS EVENING... LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG 07Z-12Z TONIGHT AT RDU/FAY... WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF HEAVIER FOG AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AT RWI. WILL
INCLUDE A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG AT RDU/FAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED
MORNING... WITH IFR CHANCES AT RWI. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIFT
QUICKLY TO VFR BY 14Z WED MORNING.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC
FROM THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK... GENERATING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS... APART FROM ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SUB-VFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE
POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING AS EAST AND NORTHEAST
FLOW BRINGS LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 011648
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1245 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY... BUT OTHERWISE DEEP HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY... BRINGING HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...

EXPECT A PRETTY QUIET DAY. LATEST SURFACE MAP STILL SHOWS A WEAK
MSLP PATTERN WITH TROUGHING OVER ERN NC AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST WEST OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS EXTENDING ACROSS WRN NC. MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE RISING TODAY IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH
(NOW MOVING OUT OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC) AND AHEAD OF THE POTENT
VORTEX OVER CENTRAL IN THAT WILL AFFECT US WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THU. IN ADDITION TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY DYNAMIC FEATURES TO FORCE
ASCENT... WE`RE ALSO LACKING MOISTURE AS PW VALUES ARE HOLDING NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL. WILL TRIM BACK EXISTING ISOLATED POPS IN THE ERN
CWA BUT WILL NEED TO RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
EXTREME SRN/SE CWA WHERE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOCALLY
GREATER NEAR THE WEAK TROUGH... AS SUGGESTED BY THE NSSL WRF AND
HRRR. WE SHOULD SEE DECENT HEATING TODAY OUTSIDE OF THE LIMITATIONS
CAUSED BY THE NOW-DISSIPATING FOG/STRATUS AND THIS AFTERNOON`S
DIURNAL FLAT CUMULUS... AND WITH MORNING THICKNESSES AT LEAST 5-10 M
ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S... NECESSITATING AN UPWARD NUDGE OF
PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO TO FORECAST HIGHS. -GIH

TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT WITH BROAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A SFC HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY ALLOW PATCHES OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT IT SHOULD NOT
BE AS EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS UPPER
60S-LOWER 70S. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT E-SE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD SLIGHTLY SHARPEN THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THUS...SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1...AND
IN VICINITY OF THE NW PIEDMONT (CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM). STILL...COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BOOST TEMPS TO NEAR 90-
LOWER 90S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AND DRIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY INITIATE/SUSTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER THE NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIN
TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH/SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY... WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... A
SECONDARY DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
LATE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...
POSSIBLY COMBINING WITH SOME LINGERING ENERGY THATS LEFT BEHIND FROM
THE LEAD DISTURBANCE IN THE FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL HELP TO
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY... BEFORE THE HIGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PUSHES DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE WEAK DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW
SINKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY AT LEAST SUNDAY. THUS... EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND MAINLY DIURNAL.

HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD
THOUGH.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINAL FORECAST
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS MORNING`S FOG AND STRATUS
AFFECTING EASTERN TERMINALS HAS LIFTED AND BECOME SCATTERED... AND
ANY CIGS TODAY PRODUCED BY HEATING WILL BE VFR. THESE DAYTIME CLOUDS
WILL THEN BREAK UP THIS EVENING... LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG 07Z-12Z TONIGHT AT RDU/FAY... WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF HEAVIER FOG AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AT RWI. WILL
INCLUDE A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG AT RDU/FAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED
MORNING... WITH IFR CHANCES AT RWI. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIFT
QUICKLY TO VFR BY 14Z WED MORNING.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC
FROM THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK... GENERATING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS... APART FROM ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SUB-VFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE
POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING AS EAST AND NORTHEAST
FLOW BRINGS LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 011648
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1245 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY... BUT OTHERWISE DEEP HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY... BRINGING HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...

EXPECT A PRETTY QUIET DAY. LATEST SURFACE MAP STILL SHOWS A WEAK
MSLP PATTERN WITH TROUGHING OVER ERN NC AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST WEST OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS EXTENDING ACROSS WRN NC. MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE RISING TODAY IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH
(NOW MOVING OUT OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC) AND AHEAD OF THE POTENT
VORTEX OVER CENTRAL IN THAT WILL AFFECT US WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THU. IN ADDITION TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY DYNAMIC FEATURES TO FORCE
ASCENT... WE`RE ALSO LACKING MOISTURE AS PW VALUES ARE HOLDING NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL. WILL TRIM BACK EXISTING ISOLATED POPS IN THE ERN
CWA BUT WILL NEED TO RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
EXTREME SRN/SE CWA WHERE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOCALLY
GREATER NEAR THE WEAK TROUGH... AS SUGGESTED BY THE NSSL WRF AND
HRRR. WE SHOULD SEE DECENT HEATING TODAY OUTSIDE OF THE LIMITATIONS
CAUSED BY THE NOW-DISSIPATING FOG/STRATUS AND THIS AFTERNOON`S
DIURNAL FLAT CUMULUS... AND WITH MORNING THICKNESSES AT LEAST 5-10 M
ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S... NECESSITATING AN UPWARD NUDGE OF
PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO TO FORECAST HIGHS. -GIH

TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT WITH BROAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A SFC HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY ALLOW PATCHES OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT IT SHOULD NOT
BE AS EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS UPPER
60S-LOWER 70S. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT E-SE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD SLIGHTLY SHARPEN THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THUS...SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1...AND
IN VICINITY OF THE NW PIEDMONT (CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM). STILL...COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BOOST TEMPS TO NEAR 90-
LOWER 90S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AND DRIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY INITIATE/SUSTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER THE NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIN
TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH/SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY... WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... A
SECONDARY DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
LATE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...
POSSIBLY COMBINING WITH SOME LINGERING ENERGY THATS LEFT BEHIND FROM
THE LEAD DISTURBANCE IN THE FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL HELP TO
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY... BEFORE THE HIGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PUSHES DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE WEAK DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW
SINKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY AT LEAST SUNDAY. THUS... EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND MAINLY DIURNAL.

HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD
THOUGH.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINAL FORECAST
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS MORNING`S FOG AND STRATUS
AFFECTING EASTERN TERMINALS HAS LIFTED AND BECOME SCATTERED... AND
ANY CIGS TODAY PRODUCED BY HEATING WILL BE VFR. THESE DAYTIME CLOUDS
WILL THEN BREAK UP THIS EVENING... LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG 07Z-12Z TONIGHT AT RDU/FAY... WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF HEAVIER FOG AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AT RWI. WILL
INCLUDE A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG AT RDU/FAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED
MORNING... WITH IFR CHANCES AT RWI. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIFT
QUICKLY TO VFR BY 14Z WED MORNING.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC
FROM THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK... GENERATING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS... APART FROM ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SUB-VFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE
POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING AS EAST AND NORTHEAST
FLOW BRINGS LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 011648
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1245 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY... BUT OTHERWISE DEEP HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY... BRINGING HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...

EXPECT A PRETTY QUIET DAY. LATEST SURFACE MAP STILL SHOWS A WEAK
MSLP PATTERN WITH TROUGHING OVER ERN NC AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST WEST OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS EXTENDING ACROSS WRN NC. MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE RISING TODAY IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH
(NOW MOVING OUT OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC) AND AHEAD OF THE POTENT
VORTEX OVER CENTRAL IN THAT WILL AFFECT US WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THU. IN ADDITION TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY DYNAMIC FEATURES TO FORCE
ASCENT... WE`RE ALSO LACKING MOISTURE AS PW VALUES ARE HOLDING NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL. WILL TRIM BACK EXISTING ISOLATED POPS IN THE ERN
CWA BUT WILL NEED TO RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
EXTREME SRN/SE CWA WHERE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOCALLY
GREATER NEAR THE WEAK TROUGH... AS SUGGESTED BY THE NSSL WRF AND
HRRR. WE SHOULD SEE DECENT HEATING TODAY OUTSIDE OF THE LIMITATIONS
CAUSED BY THE NOW-DISSIPATING FOG/STRATUS AND THIS AFTERNOON`S
DIURNAL FLAT CUMULUS... AND WITH MORNING THICKNESSES AT LEAST 5-10 M
ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S... NECESSITATING AN UPWARD NUDGE OF
PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO TO FORECAST HIGHS. -GIH

TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT WITH BROAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A SFC HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY ALLOW PATCHES OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT IT SHOULD NOT
BE AS EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS UPPER
60S-LOWER 70S. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT E-SE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD SLIGHTLY SHARPEN THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THUS...SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1...AND
IN VICINITY OF THE NW PIEDMONT (CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM). STILL...COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BOOST TEMPS TO NEAR 90-
LOWER 90S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AND DRIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY INITIATE/SUSTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER THE NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIN
TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH/SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY... WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... A
SECONDARY DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
LATE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...
POSSIBLY COMBINING WITH SOME LINGERING ENERGY THATS LEFT BEHIND FROM
THE LEAD DISTURBANCE IN THE FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL HELP TO
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY... BEFORE THE HIGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PUSHES DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE WEAK DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW
SINKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY AT LEAST SUNDAY. THUS... EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND MAINLY DIURNAL.

HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD
THOUGH.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINAL FORECAST
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS MORNING`S FOG AND STRATUS
AFFECTING EASTERN TERMINALS HAS LIFTED AND BECOME SCATTERED... AND
ANY CIGS TODAY PRODUCED BY HEATING WILL BE VFR. THESE DAYTIME CLOUDS
WILL THEN BREAK UP THIS EVENING... LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG 07Z-12Z TONIGHT AT RDU/FAY... WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF HEAVIER FOG AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AT RWI. WILL
INCLUDE A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG AT RDU/FAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED
MORNING... WITH IFR CHANCES AT RWI. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIFT
QUICKLY TO VFR BY 14Z WED MORNING.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC
FROM THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK... GENERATING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS... APART FROM ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SUB-VFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE
POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING AS EAST AND NORTHEAST
FLOW BRINGS LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011648
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1245 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY... BUT OTHERWISE DEEP HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY... BRINGING HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...

EXPECT A PRETTY QUIET DAY. LATEST SURFACE MAP STILL SHOWS A WEAK
MSLP PATTERN WITH TROUGHING OVER ERN NC AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST WEST OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS EXTENDING ACROSS WRN NC. MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE RISING TODAY IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH
(NOW MOVING OUT OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC) AND AHEAD OF THE POTENT
VORTEX OVER CENTRAL IN THAT WILL AFFECT US WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THU. IN ADDITION TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY DYNAMIC FEATURES TO FORCE
ASCENT... WE`RE ALSO LACKING MOISTURE AS PW VALUES ARE HOLDING NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL. WILL TRIM BACK EXISTING ISOLATED POPS IN THE ERN
CWA BUT WILL NEED TO RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
EXTREME SRN/SE CWA WHERE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOCALLY
GREATER NEAR THE WEAK TROUGH... AS SUGGESTED BY THE NSSL WRF AND
HRRR. WE SHOULD SEE DECENT HEATING TODAY OUTSIDE OF THE LIMITATIONS
CAUSED BY THE NOW-DISSIPATING FOG/STRATUS AND THIS AFTERNOON`S
DIURNAL FLAT CUMULUS... AND WITH MORNING THICKNESSES AT LEAST 5-10 M
ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S... NECESSITATING AN UPWARD NUDGE OF
PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO TO FORECAST HIGHS. -GIH

TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT WITH BROAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A SFC HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY ALLOW PATCHES OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT IT SHOULD NOT
BE AS EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS UPPER
60S-LOWER 70S. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT E-SE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD SLIGHTLY SHARPEN THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THUS...SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1...AND
IN VICINITY OF THE NW PIEDMONT (CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM). STILL...COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BOOST TEMPS TO NEAR 90-
LOWER 90S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AND DRIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY INITIATE/SUSTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER THE NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIN
TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH/SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY... WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... A
SECONDARY DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
LATE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...
POSSIBLY COMBINING WITH SOME LINGERING ENERGY THATS LEFT BEHIND FROM
THE LEAD DISTURBANCE IN THE FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL HELP TO
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY... BEFORE THE HIGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PUSHES DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE WEAK DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW
SINKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY AT LEAST SUNDAY. THUS... EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND MAINLY DIURNAL.

HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD
THOUGH.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINAL FORECAST
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. THIS MORNING`S FOG AND STRATUS
AFFECTING EASTERN TERMINALS HAS LIFTED AND BECOME SCATTERED... AND
ANY CIGS TODAY PRODUCED BY HEATING WILL BE VFR. THESE DAYTIME CLOUDS
WILL THEN BREAK UP THIS EVENING... LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG 07Z-12Z TONIGHT AT RDU/FAY... WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF HEAVIER FOG AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AT RWI. WILL
INCLUDE A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG AT RDU/FAY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED
MORNING... WITH IFR CHANCES AT RWI. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIFT
QUICKLY TO VFR BY 14Z WED MORNING.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC
FROM THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK... GENERATING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS... APART FROM ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SUB-VFR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE
POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING AS EAST AND NORTHEAST
FLOW BRINGS LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011332
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
930 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY... BUT OTHERWISE DEEP HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY... BRINGING HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...

EXPECT A PRETTY QUIET DAY. LATEST SURFACE MAP STILL SHOWS A WEAK
MSLP PATTERN WITH TROUGHING OVER ERN NC AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST WEST OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS EXTENDING ACROSS WRN NC. MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE RISING TODAY IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH
(NOW MOVING OUT OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC) AND AHEAD OF THE POTENT
VORTEX OVER CENTRAL IN THAT WILL AFFECT US WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THU. IN ADDITION TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY DYNAMIC FEATURES TO FORCE
ASCENT... WE`RE ALSO LACKING MOISTURE AS PW VALUES ARE HOLDING NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL. WILL TRIM BACK EXISTING ISOLATED POPS IN THE ERN
CWA BUT WILL NEED TO RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
EXTREME SRN/SE CWA WHERE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOCALLY
GREATER NEAR THE WEAK TROUGH... AS SUGGESTED BY THE NSSL WRF AND
HRRR. WE SHOULD SEE DECENT HEATING TODAY OUTSIDE OF THE LIMITATIONS
CAUSED BY THE NOW-DISSIPATING FOG/STRATUS AND THIS AFTERNOON`S
DIURNAL FLAT CUMULUS... AND WITH MORNING THICKNESSES AT LEAST 5-10 M
ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S... NECESSITATING AN UPWARD NUDGE OF
PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO TO FORECAST HIGHS. -GIH

TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT WITH BROAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A SFC HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY ALLOW PATCHES OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT IT SHOULD NOT
BE AS EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS UPPER
60S-LOWER 70S. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT E-SE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD SLIGHTLY SHARPEN THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THUS...SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1...AND
IN VICINITY OF THE NW PIEDMONT (CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM). STILL...COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BOOST TEMPS TO NEAR 90-
LOWER 90S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AND DRIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY INITIATE/SUSTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER THE NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIN
TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH/SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY... WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... A
SECONDARY DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
LATE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...
POSSIBLY COMBINING WITH SOME LINGERING ENERGY THATS LEFT BEHIND FROM
THE LEAD DISTURBANCE IN THE FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL HELP TO
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY... BEFORE THE HIGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PUSHES DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE WEAK DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW
SINKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY AT LEAST SUNDAY. THUS... EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND MAINLY DIURNAL.

HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD
THOUGH.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 805 AM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY1 4Z-15Z.
AFTER 15Z...EXPECT A SCATTERED-BROKEN STRATOCU LAYER WITH BASES 3000-
4500 FT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STATUS IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH CHANCE
OF OCCURRING AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE APPEARS FAIRLY LOW.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011332
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
930 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY... BUT OTHERWISE DEEP HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY... BRINGING HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...

EXPECT A PRETTY QUIET DAY. LATEST SURFACE MAP STILL SHOWS A WEAK
MSLP PATTERN WITH TROUGHING OVER ERN NC AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST WEST OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS EXTENDING ACROSS WRN NC. MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE RISING TODAY IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH
(NOW MOVING OUT OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC) AND AHEAD OF THE POTENT
VORTEX OVER CENTRAL IN THAT WILL AFFECT US WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THU. IN ADDITION TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY DYNAMIC FEATURES TO FORCE
ASCENT... WE`RE ALSO LACKING MOISTURE AS PW VALUES ARE HOLDING NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL. WILL TRIM BACK EXISTING ISOLATED POPS IN THE ERN
CWA BUT WILL NEED TO RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
EXTREME SRN/SE CWA WHERE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOCALLY
GREATER NEAR THE WEAK TROUGH... AS SUGGESTED BY THE NSSL WRF AND
HRRR. WE SHOULD SEE DECENT HEATING TODAY OUTSIDE OF THE LIMITATIONS
CAUSED BY THE NOW-DISSIPATING FOG/STRATUS AND THIS AFTERNOON`S
DIURNAL FLAT CUMULUS... AND WITH MORNING THICKNESSES AT LEAST 5-10 M
ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S... NECESSITATING AN UPWARD NUDGE OF
PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO TO FORECAST HIGHS. -GIH

TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT WITH BROAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A SFC HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY ALLOW PATCHES OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT IT SHOULD NOT
BE AS EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS UPPER
60S-LOWER 70S. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT E-SE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD SLIGHTLY SHARPEN THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THUS...SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1...AND
IN VICINITY OF THE NW PIEDMONT (CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM). STILL...COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BOOST TEMPS TO NEAR 90-
LOWER 90S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AND DRIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY INITIATE/SUSTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER THE NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIN
TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH/SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY... WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... A
SECONDARY DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
LATE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...
POSSIBLY COMBINING WITH SOME LINGERING ENERGY THATS LEFT BEHIND FROM
THE LEAD DISTURBANCE IN THE FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL HELP TO
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY... BEFORE THE HIGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PUSHES DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE WEAK DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW
SINKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY AT LEAST SUNDAY. THUS... EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND MAINLY DIURNAL.

HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD
THOUGH.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 805 AM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY1 4Z-15Z.
AFTER 15Z...EXPECT A SCATTERED-BROKEN STRATOCU LAYER WITH BASES 3000-
4500 FT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STATUS IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH CHANCE
OF OCCURRING AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE APPEARS FAIRLY LOW.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 011203
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COUPLED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN WILL RESULT IN
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY... ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT
COUPLED WITH A WEAK/NEAR CALM SURFACE FLOW WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING.
THE PROBABILITY OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG APPEAR TO BE HIGHEST ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. THUS WHILE PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY
OCCUR IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...EXPECT MOST OF THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS IN THIS REGION TO LIFT/DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...A NEARLY
SATURATED TOP SOIL WILL AID TO MAINTAIN THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS
LONGER...POSSIBLY UNTIL 11 AM OR A LITTLE LATER IN A FEW SPOTS. A
FEW SITES IN THE FORECAST REGION ALREADY REPORTING VISIBILITY AT OR
BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE. IF THIS BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OR
CONCENTRATED OVER A FEW COUNTIES...THEN WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

LATER TODAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK/STALLED
SURFACE TROUGH IN VICINITY OR JUST EAST OF I-95 AND AIDED BY
AFTERNOON HEATING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...LIFT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO
GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SCATTERED-BROKEN STRATOCU DECK.

MAX TEMPS TODAY DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...AND WHEN THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIFT. CURRENTLY EXPECT SOME OF
THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE WEST-SW WHERE THE SUN SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT SOONER. IF LOW CLOUDS STICK AROUND IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S MAY BE MORE
COMMON THAN UPPER 80S/90. MAX TEMPS UPPER 80S-AROUND 90.

TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT WITH BROAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A SFC HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY ALLOW PATCHES OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT IT SHOULD NOT
BE AS EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS UPPER
60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT E-SE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD SLIGHTLY SHARPEN THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THUS...SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1...AND
IN VICINITY OF THE NW PIEDMONT (CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM). STILL...COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BOOST TEMPS TO NEAR 90-
LOWER 90S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AND DRIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY INITIATE/SUSTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER THE NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIN
TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH/SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY... WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... A
SECONDARY DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
LATE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...
POSSIBLY COMBINING WITH SOME LINGERING ENERGY THATS LEFT BEHIND FROM
THE LEAD DISTURBANCE IN THE FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL HELP TO
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY... BEFORE THE HIGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PUSHES DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE WEAK DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW
SINKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY AT LEAST SUNDAY. THUS... EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND MAINLY DIURNAL.

HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD
THOUGH.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 805 AM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY1 4Z-15Z.
AFTER 15Z...EXPECT A SCATTERED-BROKEN STRATOCU LAYER WITH BASES 3000-
4500 FT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STATUS IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH CHANCE
OF OCCURRING AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE APPEARS FAIRLY LOW.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 011203
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COUPLED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN WILL RESULT IN
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY... ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT
COUPLED WITH A WEAK/NEAR CALM SURFACE FLOW WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING.
THE PROBABILITY OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG APPEAR TO BE HIGHEST ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. THUS WHILE PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY
OCCUR IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...EXPECT MOST OF THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS IN THIS REGION TO LIFT/DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...A NEARLY
SATURATED TOP SOIL WILL AID TO MAINTAIN THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS
LONGER...POSSIBLY UNTIL 11 AM OR A LITTLE LATER IN A FEW SPOTS. A
FEW SITES IN THE FORECAST REGION ALREADY REPORTING VISIBILITY AT OR
BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE. IF THIS BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OR
CONCENTRATED OVER A FEW COUNTIES...THEN WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

LATER TODAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK/STALLED
SURFACE TROUGH IN VICINITY OR JUST EAST OF I-95 AND AIDED BY
AFTERNOON HEATING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...LIFT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO
GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SCATTERED-BROKEN STRATOCU DECK.

MAX TEMPS TODAY DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...AND WHEN THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIFT. CURRENTLY EXPECT SOME OF
THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE WEST-SW WHERE THE SUN SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT SOONER. IF LOW CLOUDS STICK AROUND IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S MAY BE MORE
COMMON THAN UPPER 80S/90. MAX TEMPS UPPER 80S-AROUND 90.

TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT WITH BROAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A SFC HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY ALLOW PATCHES OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT IT SHOULD NOT
BE AS EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS UPPER
60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT E-SE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD SLIGHTLY SHARPEN THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THUS...SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1...AND
IN VICINITY OF THE NW PIEDMONT (CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM). STILL...COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BOOST TEMPS TO NEAR 90-
LOWER 90S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AND DRIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY INITIATE/SUSTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER THE NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIN
TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH/SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY... WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... A
SECONDARY DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
LATE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...
POSSIBLY COMBINING WITH SOME LINGERING ENERGY THATS LEFT BEHIND FROM
THE LEAD DISTURBANCE IN THE FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL HELP TO
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY... BEFORE THE HIGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PUSHES DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE WEAK DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW
SINKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY AT LEAST SUNDAY. THUS... EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND MAINLY DIURNAL.

HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD
THOUGH.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 805 AM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY1 4Z-15Z.
AFTER 15Z...EXPECT A SCATTERED-BROKEN STRATOCU LAYER WITH BASES 3000-
4500 FT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STATUS IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH CHANCE
OF OCCURRING AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE APPEARS FAIRLY LOW.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011203
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COUPLED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN WILL RESULT IN
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY... ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT
COUPLED WITH A WEAK/NEAR CALM SURFACE FLOW WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING.
THE PROBABILITY OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG APPEAR TO BE HIGHEST ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. THUS WHILE PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY
OCCUR IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...EXPECT MOST OF THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS IN THIS REGION TO LIFT/DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...A NEARLY
SATURATED TOP SOIL WILL AID TO MAINTAIN THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS
LONGER...POSSIBLY UNTIL 11 AM OR A LITTLE LATER IN A FEW SPOTS. A
FEW SITES IN THE FORECAST REGION ALREADY REPORTING VISIBILITY AT OR
BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE. IF THIS BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OR
CONCENTRATED OVER A FEW COUNTIES...THEN WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

LATER TODAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK/STALLED
SURFACE TROUGH IN VICINITY OR JUST EAST OF I-95 AND AIDED BY
AFTERNOON HEATING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...LIFT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO
GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SCATTERED-BROKEN STRATOCU DECK.

MAX TEMPS TODAY DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...AND WHEN THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIFT. CURRENTLY EXPECT SOME OF
THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE WEST-SW WHERE THE SUN SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT SOONER. IF LOW CLOUDS STICK AROUND IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S MAY BE MORE
COMMON THAN UPPER 80S/90. MAX TEMPS UPPER 80S-AROUND 90.

TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT WITH BROAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A SFC HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY ALLOW PATCHES OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT IT SHOULD NOT
BE AS EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS UPPER
60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT E-SE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD SLIGHTLY SHARPEN THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THUS...SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1...AND
IN VICINITY OF THE NW PIEDMONT (CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM). STILL...COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BOOST TEMPS TO NEAR 90-
LOWER 90S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AND DRIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY INITIATE/SUSTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER THE NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIN
TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH/SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY... WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... A
SECONDARY DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
LATE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...
POSSIBLY COMBINING WITH SOME LINGERING ENERGY THATS LEFT BEHIND FROM
THE LEAD DISTURBANCE IN THE FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL HELP TO
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY... BEFORE THE HIGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PUSHES DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE WEAK DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW
SINKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY AT LEAST SUNDAY. THUS... EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND MAINLY DIURNAL.

HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD
THOUGH.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 805 AM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY1 4Z-15Z.
AFTER 15Z...EXPECT A SCATTERED-BROKEN STRATOCU LAYER WITH BASES 3000-
4500 FT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STATUS IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH CHANCE
OF OCCURRING AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE APPEARS FAIRLY LOW.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 011203
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COUPLED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN WILL RESULT IN
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY... ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT
COUPLED WITH A WEAK/NEAR CALM SURFACE FLOW WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING.
THE PROBABILITY OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG APPEAR TO BE HIGHEST ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. THUS WHILE PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY
OCCUR IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...EXPECT MOST OF THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS IN THIS REGION TO LIFT/DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...A NEARLY
SATURATED TOP SOIL WILL AID TO MAINTAIN THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS
LONGER...POSSIBLY UNTIL 11 AM OR A LITTLE LATER IN A FEW SPOTS. A
FEW SITES IN THE FORECAST REGION ALREADY REPORTING VISIBILITY AT OR
BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE. IF THIS BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OR
CONCENTRATED OVER A FEW COUNTIES...THEN WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

LATER TODAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK/STALLED
SURFACE TROUGH IN VICINITY OR JUST EAST OF I-95 AND AIDED BY
AFTERNOON HEATING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...LIFT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO
GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SCATTERED-BROKEN STRATOCU DECK.

MAX TEMPS TODAY DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...AND WHEN THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIFT. CURRENTLY EXPECT SOME OF
THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE WEST-SW WHERE THE SUN SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT SOONER. IF LOW CLOUDS STICK AROUND IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S MAY BE MORE
COMMON THAN UPPER 80S/90. MAX TEMPS UPPER 80S-AROUND 90.

TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT WITH BROAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A SFC HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY ALLOW PATCHES OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT IT SHOULD NOT
BE AS EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS UPPER
60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT E-SE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD SLIGHTLY SHARPEN THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THUS...SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1...AND
IN VICINITY OF THE NW PIEDMONT (CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM). STILL...COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BOOST TEMPS TO NEAR 90-
LOWER 90S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AND DRIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY INITIATE/SUSTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER THE NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIN
TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH/SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY... WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... A
SECONDARY DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
LATE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...
POSSIBLY COMBINING WITH SOME LINGERING ENERGY THATS LEFT BEHIND FROM
THE LEAD DISTURBANCE IN THE FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL HELP TO
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY... BEFORE THE HIGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PUSHES DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE WEAK DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW
SINKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY AT LEAST SUNDAY. THUS... EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND MAINLY DIURNAL.

HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD
THOUGH.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 805 AM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY1 4Z-15Z.
AFTER 15Z...EXPECT A SCATTERED-BROKEN STRATOCU LAYER WITH BASES 3000-
4500 FT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STATUS IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH CHANCE
OF OCCURRING AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE APPEARS FAIRLY LOW.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010705
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COUPLED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN WILL RESULT IN
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY... ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT
COUPLED WITH A WEAK/NEAR CALM SURFACE FLOW WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING.
THE PROBABILITY OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG APPEAR TO BE HIGHEST ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. THUS WHILE PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY
OCCUR IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...EXPECT MOST OF THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS IN THIS REGION TO LIFT/DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...A NEARLY
SATURATED TOP SOIL WILL AID TO MAINTAIN THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS
LONGER...POSSIBLY UNTIL 11 AM OR A LITTLE LATER IN A FEW SPOTS. A
FEW SITES IN THE FORECAST REGION ALREADY REPORTING VISIBILITY AT OR
BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE. IF THIS BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OR
CONCENTRATED OVER A FEW COUNTIES...THEN WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

LATER TODAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK/STALLED
SURFACE TROUGH IN VICINITY OR JUST EAST OF I-95 AND AIDED BY
AFTERNOON HEATING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...LIFT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO
GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SCATTERED-BROKEN STRATOCU DECK.

MAX TEMPS TODAY DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...AND WHEN THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIFT. CURRENTLY EXPECT SOME OF
THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE WEST-SW WHERE THE SUN SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT SOONER. IF LOW CLOUDS STICK AROUND IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S MAY BE MORE
COMMON THAN UPPER 80S/90. MAX TEMPS UPPER 80S-AROUND 90.

TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT WITH BROAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A SFC HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY ALLOW PATCHES OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT IT SHOULD NOT
BE AS EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS UPPER
60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT E-SE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD SLIGHTLY SHARPEN THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THUS...SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1...AND
IN VICINITY OF THE NW PIEDMONT (CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM). STILL...COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BOOST TEMPS TO NEAR 90-
LOWER 90S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AND DRIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY INITIATE/SUSTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER THE NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIN
TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH/SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY... WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... A
SECONDARY DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
LATE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...
POSSIBLY COMBINING WITH SOME LINGERING ENERGY THATS LEFT BEHIND FROM
THE LEAD DISTURBANCE IN THE FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL HELP TO
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY... BEFORE THE HIGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PUSHES DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE WEAK DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW
SINKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY AT LEAST SUNDAY. THUS... EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND MAINLY DIURNAL.

HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD
THOUGH.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1258 AM TUESDAY...

THERE IS A GOOD PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING AS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR EXPAND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE NW
PIEDMONT...INCLUDING THE TRIAD TERMINALS...WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. MOST OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD
EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS BY 17Z-18Z.

ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STATUS IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH CHANCE
OF OCCURRING AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE APPEARS FAIRLY LOW.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010705
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COUPLED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN WILL RESULT IN
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY... ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT
COUPLED WITH A WEAK/NEAR CALM SURFACE FLOW WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING.
THE PROBABILITY OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG APPEAR TO BE HIGHEST ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. THUS WHILE PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY
OCCUR IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...EXPECT MOST OF THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS IN THIS REGION TO LIFT/DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...A NEARLY
SATURATED TOP SOIL WILL AID TO MAINTAIN THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS
LONGER...POSSIBLY UNTIL 11 AM OR A LITTLE LATER IN A FEW SPOTS. A
FEW SITES IN THE FORECAST REGION ALREADY REPORTING VISIBILITY AT OR
BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE. IF THIS BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OR
CONCENTRATED OVER A FEW COUNTIES...THEN WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

LATER TODAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK/STALLED
SURFACE TROUGH IN VICINITY OR JUST EAST OF I-95 AND AIDED BY
AFTERNOON HEATING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...LIFT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO
GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SCATTERED-BROKEN STRATOCU DECK.

MAX TEMPS TODAY DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...AND WHEN THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIFT. CURRENTLY EXPECT SOME OF
THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE WEST-SW WHERE THE SUN SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT SOONER. IF LOW CLOUDS STICK AROUND IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S MAY BE MORE
COMMON THAN UPPER 80S/90. MAX TEMPS UPPER 80S-AROUND 90.

TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT WITH BROAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A SFC HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY ALLOW PATCHES OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT IT SHOULD NOT
BE AS EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS UPPER
60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT E-SE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD SLIGHTLY SHARPEN THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THUS...SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1...AND
IN VICINITY OF THE NW PIEDMONT (CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM). STILL...COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BOOST TEMPS TO NEAR 90-
LOWER 90S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AND DRIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY INITIATE/SUSTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER THE NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIN
TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH/SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY... WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... A
SECONDARY DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
LATE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...
POSSIBLY COMBINING WITH SOME LINGERING ENERGY THATS LEFT BEHIND FROM
THE LEAD DISTURBANCE IN THE FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL HELP TO
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY... BEFORE THE HIGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PUSHES DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE WEAK DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW
SINKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY AT LEAST SUNDAY. THUS... EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND MAINLY DIURNAL.

HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD
THOUGH.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1258 AM TUESDAY...

THERE IS A GOOD PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING AS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR EXPAND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE NW
PIEDMONT...INCLUDING THE TRIAD TERMINALS...WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. MOST OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD
EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS BY 17Z-18Z.

ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STATUS IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH CHANCE
OF OCCURRING AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE APPEARS FAIRLY LOW.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010705
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COUPLED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN WILL RESULT IN
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY... ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT
COUPLED WITH A WEAK/NEAR CALM SURFACE FLOW WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING.
THE PROBABILITY OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG APPEAR TO BE HIGHEST ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. THUS WHILE PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY
OCCUR IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...EXPECT MOST OF THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS IN THIS REGION TO LIFT/DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...A NEARLY
SATURATED TOP SOIL WILL AID TO MAINTAIN THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS
LONGER...POSSIBLY UNTIL 11 AM OR A LITTLE LATER IN A FEW SPOTS. A
FEW SITES IN THE FORECAST REGION ALREADY REPORTING VISIBILITY AT OR
BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE. IF THIS BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OR
CONCENTRATED OVER A FEW COUNTIES...THEN WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

LATER TODAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK/STALLED
SURFACE TROUGH IN VICINITY OR JUST EAST OF I-95 AND AIDED BY
AFTERNOON HEATING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...LIFT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO
GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SCATTERED-BROKEN STRATOCU DECK.

MAX TEMPS TODAY DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...AND WHEN THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIFT. CURRENTLY EXPECT SOME OF
THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE WEST-SW WHERE THE SUN SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT SOONER. IF LOW CLOUDS STICK AROUND IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S MAY BE MORE
COMMON THAN UPPER 80S/90. MAX TEMPS UPPER 80S-AROUND 90.

TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT WITH BROAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A SFC HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY ALLOW PATCHES OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT IT SHOULD NOT
BE AS EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS UPPER
60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT E-SE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD SLIGHTLY SHARPEN THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THUS...SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1...AND
IN VICINITY OF THE NW PIEDMONT (CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM). STILL...COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BOOST TEMPS TO NEAR 90-
LOWER 90S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AND DRIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY INITIATE/SUSTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER THE NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIN
TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH/SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY... WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... A
SECONDARY DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
LATE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...
POSSIBLY COMBINING WITH SOME LINGERING ENERGY THATS LEFT BEHIND FROM
THE LEAD DISTURBANCE IN THE FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL HELP TO
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY... BEFORE THE HIGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PUSHES DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE WEAK DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW
SINKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY AT LEAST SUNDAY. THUS... EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND MAINLY DIURNAL.

HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD
THOUGH.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1258 AM TUESDAY...

THERE IS A GOOD PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING AS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR EXPAND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE NW
PIEDMONT...INCLUDING THE TRIAD TERMINALS...WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. MOST OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD
EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS BY 17Z-18Z.

ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STATUS IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH CHANCE
OF OCCURRING AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE APPEARS FAIRLY LOW.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010705
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COUPLED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN WILL RESULT IN
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

TODAY... ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT
COUPLED WITH A WEAK/NEAR CALM SURFACE FLOW WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING.
THE PROBABILITY OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG APPEAR TO BE HIGHEST ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. THUS WHILE PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY
OCCUR IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...EXPECT MOST OF THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS IN THIS REGION TO LIFT/DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN...A NEARLY
SATURATED TOP SOIL WILL AID TO MAINTAIN THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS
LONGER...POSSIBLY UNTIL 11 AM OR A LITTLE LATER IN A FEW SPOTS. A
FEW SITES IN THE FORECAST REGION ALREADY REPORTING VISIBILITY AT OR
BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE. IF THIS BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD OR
CONCENTRATED OVER A FEW COUNTIES...THEN WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

LATER TODAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK/STALLED
SURFACE TROUGH IN VICINITY OR JUST EAST OF I-95 AND AIDED BY
AFTERNOON HEATING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...LIFT APPEARS TOO WEAK TO
GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN A SCATTERED-BROKEN STRATOCU DECK.

MAX TEMPS TODAY DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THIS
MORNING...AND WHEN THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIFT. CURRENTLY EXPECT SOME OF
THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE WEST-SW WHERE THE SUN SHOULD BE MORE
PREVALENT SOONER. IF LOW CLOUDS STICK AROUND IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S MAY BE MORE
COMMON THAN UPPER 80S/90. MAX TEMPS UPPER 80S-AROUND 90.

TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT WITH BROAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A SFC HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY ALLOW PATCHES OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT IT SHOULD NOT
BE AS EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS UPPER
60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT E-SE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD SLIGHTLY SHARPEN THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THUS...SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1...AND
IN VICINITY OF THE NW PIEDMONT (CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM). STILL...COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BOOST TEMPS TO NEAR 90-
LOWER 90S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AND DRIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY INITIATE/SUSTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER THE NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIN
TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH/SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY... WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... A
SECONDARY DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
LATE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...
POSSIBLY COMBINING WITH SOME LINGERING ENERGY THATS LEFT BEHIND FROM
THE LEAD DISTURBANCE IN THE FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL HELP TO
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY... BEFORE THE HIGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PUSHES DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE WEAK DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW
SINKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY AT LEAST SUNDAY. THUS... EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND MAINLY DIURNAL.

HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD
THOUGH.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1258 AM TUESDAY...

THERE IS A GOOD PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING AS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR EXPAND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE NW
PIEDMONT...INCLUDING THE TRIAD TERMINALS...WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. MOST OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD
EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS BY 17Z-18Z.

ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STATUS IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH CHANCE
OF OCCURRING AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE APPEARS FAIRLY LOW.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010658
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
258 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COUPLED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN WILL RESULT IN
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1024 PM MONDAY...

A VERY MOIST SURFACE LAYER WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT OVERNIGHT FAVORS FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR. THE MOISTURE IS DEEPER IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN
WITH THE FORMATION OF STRATUS LIKELY. THIS CLOUDINESS MAY CUT DOWN
ON THE DENSE FOG IN THE EAST. THE MAIN ISSUES THEN OVERNIGHT ARE
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE WEST... POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
AROUND THE TRIANGLE AND ROXBORO... WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE
EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S NW... BUT
REMAIN 70-73 IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN FEATURING A BROAD TROUGH OVER ERN NC AND KY-
CENTERED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WRN NC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE... WHILE
ALOFT... HEIGHTS RISE OVER NC IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE... AND
AHEAD OF THE LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIR THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALTHOUGH A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU
PARTICULARLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE
MORNING FOG LIFTS AND MIXES OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA... EXPECT
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR ERN CWA... WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER AND WHERE MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OR
EXCEED 1000 J/KG... BUT THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR ASCENT AND LIMITED
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW. HIGHS 88-92 WITH
THICKNESSES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS 69-72. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH/SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY... WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... A
SECONDARY DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
LATE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...
POSSIBLY COMBINING WITH SOME LINGERING ENERGY THATS LEFT BEHIND FROM
THE LEAD DISTURBANCE IN THE FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL HELP TO
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY... BEFORE THE HIGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PUSHES DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE WEAK DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW
SINKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY AT LEAST SUNDAY. THUS... EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND MAINLY DIURNAL.

HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD
THOUGH.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1258 AM TUESDAY...

THERE IS A GOOD PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING AS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR EXPAND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE NW
PIEDMONT...INCLUDING THE TRIAD TERMINALS...WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. MOST OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD
EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS BY 17Z-18Z.

ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STATUS IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH CHANCE
OF OCCURRING AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE APPEARS FAIRLY LOW.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010457
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1258 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COUPLED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN WILL RESULT IN
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1024 PM MONDAY...

A VERY MOIST SURFACE LAYER WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT OVERNIGHT FAVORS FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR. THE MOISTURE IS DEEPER IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN
WITH THE FORMATION OF STRATUS LIKELY. THIS CLOUDINESS MAY CUT DOWN
ON THE DENSE FOG IN THE EAST. THE MAIN ISSUES THEN OVERNIGHT ARE
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE WEST... POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
AROUND THE TRIANGLE AND ROXBORO... WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE
EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S NW... BUT
REMAIN 70-73 IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN FEATURING A BROAD TROUGH OVER ERN NC AND KY-
CENTERED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WRN NC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE... WHILE
ALOFT... HEIGHTS RISE OVER NC IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE... AND
AHEAD OF THE LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIR THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALTHOUGH A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU
PARTICULARLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE
MORNING FOG LIFTS AND MIXES OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA... EXPECT
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR ERN CWA... WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER AND WHERE MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OR
EXCEED 1000 J/KG... BUT THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR ASCENT AND LIMITED
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW. HIGHS 88-92 WITH
THICKNESSES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS 69-72. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENT OF THE LONG TERM AS
THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH NO REAL
DISCERNIBLE JETS OR STRONG SHORTWAVES IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE BUILT AROUND LOWER
LEVEL FEATURES.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE VERY
WEAK WITH NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANCE BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH
FORCING FOR A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND RETROGRADE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATER ON FRIDAY AND GIVING US A COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY RUN IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND THEN DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. -RE

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1258 AM TUESDAY...

THERE IS A GOOD PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING AS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR EXPAND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE NW
PIEDMONT...INCLUDING THE TRIAD TERMINALS...WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. MOST OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD
EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS BY 17Z-18Z.

ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STATUS IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH CHANCE
OF OCCURRING AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE APPEARS FAIRLY LOW.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010457
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1258 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COUPLED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN WILL RESULT IN
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1024 PM MONDAY...

A VERY MOIST SURFACE LAYER WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT OVERNIGHT FAVORS FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR. THE MOISTURE IS DEEPER IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN
WITH THE FORMATION OF STRATUS LIKELY. THIS CLOUDINESS MAY CUT DOWN
ON THE DENSE FOG IN THE EAST. THE MAIN ISSUES THEN OVERNIGHT ARE
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE WEST... POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
AROUND THE TRIANGLE AND ROXBORO... WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE
EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S NW... BUT
REMAIN 70-73 IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN FEATURING A BROAD TROUGH OVER ERN NC AND KY-
CENTERED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WRN NC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE... WHILE
ALOFT... HEIGHTS RISE OVER NC IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE... AND
AHEAD OF THE LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIR THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALTHOUGH A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU
PARTICULARLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE
MORNING FOG LIFTS AND MIXES OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA... EXPECT
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR ERN CWA... WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER AND WHERE MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OR
EXCEED 1000 J/KG... BUT THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR ASCENT AND LIMITED
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW. HIGHS 88-92 WITH
THICKNESSES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS 69-72. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENT OF THE LONG TERM AS
THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH NO REAL
DISCERNIBLE JETS OR STRONG SHORTWAVES IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE BUILT AROUND LOWER
LEVEL FEATURES.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE VERY
WEAK WITH NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANCE BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH
FORCING FOR A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND RETROGRADE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATER ON FRIDAY AND GIVING US A COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY RUN IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND THEN DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. -RE

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1258 AM TUESDAY...

THERE IS A GOOD PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING AS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR EXPAND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE NW
PIEDMONT...INCLUDING THE TRIAD TERMINALS...WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. MOST OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD
EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS BY 17Z-18Z.

ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STATUS IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH CHANCE
OF OCCURRING AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE APPEARS FAIRLY LOW.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010457
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1258 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COUPLED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN WILL RESULT IN
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1024 PM MONDAY...

A VERY MOIST SURFACE LAYER WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT OVERNIGHT FAVORS FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR. THE MOISTURE IS DEEPER IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN
WITH THE FORMATION OF STRATUS LIKELY. THIS CLOUDINESS MAY CUT DOWN
ON THE DENSE FOG IN THE EAST. THE MAIN ISSUES THEN OVERNIGHT ARE
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE WEST... POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
AROUND THE TRIANGLE AND ROXBORO... WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE
EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S NW... BUT
REMAIN 70-73 IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN FEATURING A BROAD TROUGH OVER ERN NC AND KY-
CENTERED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WRN NC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE... WHILE
ALOFT... HEIGHTS RISE OVER NC IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE... AND
AHEAD OF THE LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIR THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALTHOUGH A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU
PARTICULARLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE
MORNING FOG LIFTS AND MIXES OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA... EXPECT
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR ERN CWA... WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER AND WHERE MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OR
EXCEED 1000 J/KG... BUT THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR ASCENT AND LIMITED
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW. HIGHS 88-92 WITH
THICKNESSES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS 69-72. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENT OF THE LONG TERM AS
THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH NO REAL
DISCERNIBLE JETS OR STRONG SHORTWAVES IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE BUILT AROUND LOWER
LEVEL FEATURES.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE VERY
WEAK WITH NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANCE BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH
FORCING FOR A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND RETROGRADE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATER ON FRIDAY AND GIVING US A COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY RUN IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND THEN DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. -RE

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1258 AM TUESDAY...

THERE IS A GOOD PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING AS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR EXPAND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE NW
PIEDMONT...INCLUDING THE TRIAD TERMINALS...WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. MOST OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD
EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS BY 17Z-18Z.

ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STATUS IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH CHANCE
OF OCCURRING AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE APPEARS FAIRLY LOW.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010457
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1258 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COUPLED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN WILL RESULT IN
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1024 PM MONDAY...

A VERY MOIST SURFACE LAYER WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT OVERNIGHT FAVORS FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR. THE MOISTURE IS DEEPER IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN
WITH THE FORMATION OF STRATUS LIKELY. THIS CLOUDINESS MAY CUT DOWN
ON THE DENSE FOG IN THE EAST. THE MAIN ISSUES THEN OVERNIGHT ARE
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE WEST... POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
AROUND THE TRIANGLE AND ROXBORO... WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE
EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S NW... BUT
REMAIN 70-73 IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN FEATURING A BROAD TROUGH OVER ERN NC AND KY-
CENTERED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WRN NC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE... WHILE
ALOFT... HEIGHTS RISE OVER NC IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE... AND
AHEAD OF THE LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIR THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALTHOUGH A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU
PARTICULARLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE
MORNING FOG LIFTS AND MIXES OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA... EXPECT
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR ERN CWA... WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER AND WHERE MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OR
EXCEED 1000 J/KG... BUT THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR ASCENT AND LIMITED
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW. HIGHS 88-92 WITH
THICKNESSES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS 69-72. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENT OF THE LONG TERM AS
THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH NO REAL
DISCERNIBLE JETS OR STRONG SHORTWAVES IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE BUILT AROUND LOWER
LEVEL FEATURES.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE VERY
WEAK WITH NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANCE BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH
FORCING FOR A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND RETROGRADE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATER ON FRIDAY AND GIVING US A COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY RUN IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND THEN DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. -RE

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1258 AM TUESDAY...

THERE IS A GOOD PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING AS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR EXPAND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE NW
PIEDMONT...INCLUDING THE TRIAD TERMINALS...WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. ELSEWHERE...THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. MOST OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD
EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS BY 17Z-18Z.

ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STATUS IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH CHANCE
OF OCCURRING AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE APPEARS FAIRLY LOW.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010225
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1024 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. AT
THE SURFACE... A WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1024 PM MONDAY...

A VERY MOIST SURFACE LAYER WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT OVERNIGHT FAVORS FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR. THE MOISTURE IS DEEPER IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN
WITH THE FORMATION OF STRATUS LIKELY. THIS CLOUDINESS MAY CUT DOWN
ON THE DENSE FOG IN THE EAST. THE MAIN ISSUES THEN OVERNIGHT ARE
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE WEST... POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
AROUND THE TRIANGLE AND ROXBORO... WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE
EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S NW... BUT
REMAIN 70-73 IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN FEATURING A BROAD TROUGH OVER ERN NC AND KY-
CENTERED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WRN NC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE... WHILE
ALOFT... HEIGHTS RISE OVER NC IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE... AND
AHEAD OF THE LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIR THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALTHOUGH A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU
PARTICULARLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE
MORNING FOG LIFTS AND MIXES OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA... EXPECT
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR ERN CWA... WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER AND WHERE MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OR
EXCEED 1000 J/KG... BUT THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR ASCENT AND LIMITED
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW. HIGHS 88-92 WITH
THICKNESSES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS 69-72. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENT OF THE LONG TERM AS
THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH NO REAL
DISCERNIBLE JETS OR STRONG SHORTWAVES IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE BUILT AROUND LOWER
LEVEL FEATURES.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE VERY
WEAK WITH NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANCE BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH
FORCING FOR A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND RETROGRADE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATER ON FRIDAY AND GIVING US A COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY RUN IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND THEN DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. -RE

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:

INT/GSO: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT AT
THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
IFR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (09-13Z). OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

RDU/FAY/RWI: DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT
EASTERN TERMINALS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN THE PRESENCE OF CALM
WINDS...MOIST AIRMASS...AND MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS FROM RECENT
RAINFALL. EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS ATTENDANT EITHER LOW CEILINGS OR
LOW VISBYS IN DENSE DOG...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE
WORST CONDITIONS IN THE 08-13Z TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD ASIDE FROM A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER AT THE
FAY/RWI TERMINALS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. NOTE: THE RDU
TERMINAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR DENSE FOG
TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE
MORNING. -VINCENT

LOOKING BEYOND 00Z WED: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT MVFR TO IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH SAT.
SCATTERED SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
WED THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW WITH
DETAILS OF POSSIBLE TIMING OR COVERAGE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010225
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1024 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. AT
THE SURFACE... A WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1024 PM MONDAY...

A VERY MOIST SURFACE LAYER WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT OVERNIGHT FAVORS FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR. THE MOISTURE IS DEEPER IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN
WITH THE FORMATION OF STRATUS LIKELY. THIS CLOUDINESS MAY CUT DOWN
ON THE DENSE FOG IN THE EAST. THE MAIN ISSUES THEN OVERNIGHT ARE
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE WEST... POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
AROUND THE TRIANGLE AND ROXBORO... WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE
EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S NW... BUT
REMAIN 70-73 IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN FEATURING A BROAD TROUGH OVER ERN NC AND KY-
CENTERED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WRN NC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE... WHILE
ALOFT... HEIGHTS RISE OVER NC IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE... AND
AHEAD OF THE LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIR THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALTHOUGH A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU
PARTICULARLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE
MORNING FOG LIFTS AND MIXES OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA... EXPECT
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR ERN CWA... WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER AND WHERE MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OR
EXCEED 1000 J/KG... BUT THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR ASCENT AND LIMITED
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW. HIGHS 88-92 WITH
THICKNESSES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS 69-72. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENT OF THE LONG TERM AS
THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH NO REAL
DISCERNIBLE JETS OR STRONG SHORTWAVES IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE BUILT AROUND LOWER
LEVEL FEATURES.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE VERY
WEAK WITH NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANCE BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH
FORCING FOR A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND RETROGRADE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATER ON FRIDAY AND GIVING US A COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY RUN IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND THEN DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. -RE

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:

INT/GSO: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT AT
THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
IFR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (09-13Z). OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

RDU/FAY/RWI: DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT
EASTERN TERMINALS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN THE PRESENCE OF CALM
WINDS...MOIST AIRMASS...AND MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS FROM RECENT
RAINFALL. EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS ATTENDANT EITHER LOW CEILINGS OR
LOW VISBYS IN DENSE DOG...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE
WORST CONDITIONS IN THE 08-13Z TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD ASIDE FROM A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER AT THE
FAY/RWI TERMINALS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. NOTE: THE RDU
TERMINAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR DENSE FOG
TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE
MORNING. -VINCENT

LOOKING BEYOND 00Z WED: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT MVFR TO IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH SAT.
SCATTERED SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
WED THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW WITH
DETAILS OF POSSIBLE TIMING OR COVERAGE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010225
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1024 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. AT
THE SURFACE... A WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1024 PM MONDAY...

A VERY MOIST SURFACE LAYER WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT OVERNIGHT FAVORS FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR. THE MOISTURE IS DEEPER IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN
WITH THE FORMATION OF STRATUS LIKELY. THIS CLOUDINESS MAY CUT DOWN
ON THE DENSE FOG IN THE EAST. THE MAIN ISSUES THEN OVERNIGHT ARE
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE WEST... POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
AROUND THE TRIANGLE AND ROXBORO... WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE
EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S NW... BUT
REMAIN 70-73 IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN FEATURING A BROAD TROUGH OVER ERN NC AND KY-
CENTERED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WRN NC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE... WHILE
ALOFT... HEIGHTS RISE OVER NC IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE... AND
AHEAD OF THE LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIR THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALTHOUGH A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU
PARTICULARLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE
MORNING FOG LIFTS AND MIXES OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA... EXPECT
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR ERN CWA... WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER AND WHERE MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OR
EXCEED 1000 J/KG... BUT THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR ASCENT AND LIMITED
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW. HIGHS 88-92 WITH
THICKNESSES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS 69-72. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENT OF THE LONG TERM AS
THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH NO REAL
DISCERNIBLE JETS OR STRONG SHORTWAVES IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE BUILT AROUND LOWER
LEVEL FEATURES.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE VERY
WEAK WITH NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANCE BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH
FORCING FOR A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND RETROGRADE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATER ON FRIDAY AND GIVING US A COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY RUN IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND THEN DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. -RE

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:

INT/GSO: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT AT
THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
IFR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (09-13Z). OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

RDU/FAY/RWI: DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT
EASTERN TERMINALS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN THE PRESENCE OF CALM
WINDS...MOIST AIRMASS...AND MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS FROM RECENT
RAINFALL. EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS ATTENDANT EITHER LOW CEILINGS OR
LOW VISBYS IN DENSE DOG...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE
WORST CONDITIONS IN THE 08-13Z TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD ASIDE FROM A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER AT THE
FAY/RWI TERMINALS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. NOTE: THE RDU
TERMINAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR DENSE FOG
TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE
MORNING. -VINCENT

LOOKING BEYOND 00Z WED: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT MVFR TO IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH SAT.
SCATTERED SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
WED THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW WITH
DETAILS OF POSSIBLE TIMING OR COVERAGE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010225
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1024 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. AT
THE SURFACE... A WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1024 PM MONDAY...

A VERY MOIST SURFACE LAYER WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT OVERNIGHT FAVORS FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
RUSH HOUR. THE MOISTURE IS DEEPER IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN PIEDMONT THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN
WITH THE FORMATION OF STRATUS LIKELY. THIS CLOUDINESS MAY CUT DOWN
ON THE DENSE FOG IN THE EAST. THE MAIN ISSUES THEN OVERNIGHT ARE
PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE WEST... POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
AROUND THE TRIANGLE AND ROXBORO... WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE
EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S NW... BUT
REMAIN 70-73 IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN FEATURING A BROAD TROUGH OVER ERN NC AND KY-
CENTERED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WRN NC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE... WHILE
ALOFT... HEIGHTS RISE OVER NC IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE... AND
AHEAD OF THE LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIR THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALTHOUGH A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU
PARTICULARLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE
MORNING FOG LIFTS AND MIXES OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA... EXPECT
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR ERN CWA... WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER AND WHERE MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OR
EXCEED 1000 J/KG... BUT THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR ASCENT AND LIMITED
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW. HIGHS 88-92 WITH
THICKNESSES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS 69-72. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENT OF THE LONG TERM AS
THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH NO REAL
DISCERNIBLE JETS OR STRONG SHORTWAVES IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE BUILT AROUND LOWER
LEVEL FEATURES.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE VERY
WEAK WITH NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANCE BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH
FORCING FOR A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND RETROGRADE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATER ON FRIDAY AND GIVING US A COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY RUN IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND THEN DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. -RE

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:

INT/GSO: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT AT
THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
IFR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (09-13Z). OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

RDU/FAY/RWI: DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT
EASTERN TERMINALS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN THE PRESENCE OF CALM
WINDS...MOIST AIRMASS...AND MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS FROM RECENT
RAINFALL. EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS ATTENDANT EITHER LOW CEILINGS OR
LOW VISBYS IN DENSE DOG...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE
WORST CONDITIONS IN THE 08-13Z TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD ASIDE FROM A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER AT THE
FAY/RWI TERMINALS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. NOTE: THE RDU
TERMINAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR DENSE FOG
TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE
MORNING. -VINCENT

LOOKING BEYOND 00Z WED: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT MVFR TO IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH SAT.
SCATTERED SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
WED THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW WITH
DETAILS OF POSSIBLE TIMING OR COVERAGE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010220
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1020 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. OTHERWISE... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL HOLD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY EXTENDS OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

THE SHIELD OF TROPICAL RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...
WHILE THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED WELL TO OUR NE. WHILE A FEW
SHALLOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE... THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL HOLD JUST TO OUR EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CHS
COAST... AND THIS WILL TRACK TO THE NNE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER ERN NC... ACCOMPANIED BY A MID LEVEL WAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY JUST UPSHEAR. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT THE RAIN SHIELD IS
LIKELY TO HOLD JUST TO OUR EAST OR PERHAPS BRUSH ALONG THE FAR ERN
COASTAL PLAIN AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER ERN NC... A SCENARIO NEARLY IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS. WILL RETAIN A LOW CHANCE POP OVER
THE CENTRAL/ERN FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY EVENING... THEN EXPECT DRY
WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO
OUR SW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF CENTRAL NC. IT`S A DIFFERENT
STORY NEAR THE GROUND HOWEVER... AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HOLDING OVER THE ERN HALF OF NC ALONG WITH A WET GROUND AND
LIGHT OR CALM SURFACE WINDS LEAD TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT... PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE AND FAY TO
THE EAST/NORTHEAST. EXPECT ABOVE-NORMAL LOWS FROM 67-72. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN FEATURING A BROAD TROUGH OVER ERN NC AND KY-
CENTERED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WRN NC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE... WHILE
ALOFT... HEIGHTS RISE OVER NC IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE... AND
AHEAD OF THE LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIR THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALTHOUGH A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU
PARTICULARLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE
MORNING FOG LIFTS AND MIXES OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA... EXPECT
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR ERN CWA... WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER AND WHERE MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OR
EXCEED 1000 J/KG... BUT THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR ASCENT AND LIMITED
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW. HIGHS 88-92 WITH
THICKNESSES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS 69-72. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENT OF THE LONG TERM AS
THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH NO REAL
DISCERNIBLE JETS OR STRONG SHORTWAVES IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE BUILT AROUND LOWER
LEVEL FEATURES.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE VERY
WEAK WITH NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANCE BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH
FORCING FOR A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND RETROGRADE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATER ON FRIDAY AND GIVING US A COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY RUN IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND THEN DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. -RE

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:

INT/GSO: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT AT
THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
IFR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (09-13Z). OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

RDU/FAY/RWI: DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT
EASTERN TERMINALS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN THE PRESENCE OF CALM
WINDS...MOIST AIRMASS...AND MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS FROM RECENT
RAINFALL. EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS ATTENDANT EITHER LOW CEILINGS OR
LOW VISBYS IN DENSE DOG...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE
WORST CONDITIONS IN THE 08-13Z TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD ASIDE FROM A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER AT THE
FAY/RWI TERMINALS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. NOTE: THE RDU
TERMINAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR DENSE FOG
TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE
MORNING. -VINCENT

LOOKING BEYOND 00Z WED: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT MVFR TO IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH SAT.
SCATTERED SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
WED THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW WITH
DETAILS OF POSSIBLE TIMING OR COVERAGE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010220
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1020 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. OTHERWISE... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL HOLD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY EXTENDS OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

THE SHIELD OF TROPICAL RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...
WHILE THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED WELL TO OUR NE. WHILE A FEW
SHALLOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE... THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL HOLD JUST TO OUR EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CHS
COAST... AND THIS WILL TRACK TO THE NNE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER ERN NC... ACCOMPANIED BY A MID LEVEL WAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY JUST UPSHEAR. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT THE RAIN SHIELD IS
LIKELY TO HOLD JUST TO OUR EAST OR PERHAPS BRUSH ALONG THE FAR ERN
COASTAL PLAIN AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER ERN NC... A SCENARIO NEARLY IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS. WILL RETAIN A LOW CHANCE POP OVER
THE CENTRAL/ERN FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY EVENING... THEN EXPECT DRY
WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO
OUR SW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF CENTRAL NC. IT`S A DIFFERENT
STORY NEAR THE GROUND HOWEVER... AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HOLDING OVER THE ERN HALF OF NC ALONG WITH A WET GROUND AND
LIGHT OR CALM SURFACE WINDS LEAD TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT... PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE AND FAY TO
THE EAST/NORTHEAST. EXPECT ABOVE-NORMAL LOWS FROM 67-72. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN FEATURING A BROAD TROUGH OVER ERN NC AND KY-
CENTERED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WRN NC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE... WHILE
ALOFT... HEIGHTS RISE OVER NC IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE... AND
AHEAD OF THE LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIR THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALTHOUGH A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU
PARTICULARLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE
MORNING FOG LIFTS AND MIXES OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA... EXPECT
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR ERN CWA... WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER AND WHERE MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OR
EXCEED 1000 J/KG... BUT THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR ASCENT AND LIMITED
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW. HIGHS 88-92 WITH
THICKNESSES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS 69-72. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENT OF THE LONG TERM AS
THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH NO REAL
DISCERNIBLE JETS OR STRONG SHORTWAVES IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE BUILT AROUND LOWER
LEVEL FEATURES.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE VERY
WEAK WITH NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANCE BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH
FORCING FOR A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND RETROGRADE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATER ON FRIDAY AND GIVING US A COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY RUN IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND THEN DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. -RE

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:

INT/GSO: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT AT
THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
IFR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (09-13Z). OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

RDU/FAY/RWI: DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT
EASTERN TERMINALS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN THE PRESENCE OF CALM
WINDS...MOIST AIRMASS...AND MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS FROM RECENT
RAINFALL. EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS ATTENDANT EITHER LOW CEILINGS OR
LOW VISBYS IN DENSE DOG...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE
WORST CONDITIONS IN THE 08-13Z TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD ASIDE FROM A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER AT THE
FAY/RWI TERMINALS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. NOTE: THE RDU
TERMINAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR DENSE FOG
TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE
MORNING. -VINCENT

LOOKING BEYOND 00Z WED: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT MVFR TO IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH SAT.
SCATTERED SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
WED THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW WITH
DETAILS OF POSSIBLE TIMING OR COVERAGE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 010220
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1020 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. OTHERWISE... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL HOLD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY EXTENDS OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

THE SHIELD OF TROPICAL RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...
WHILE THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED WELL TO OUR NE. WHILE A FEW
SHALLOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE... THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL HOLD JUST TO OUR EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CHS
COAST... AND THIS WILL TRACK TO THE NNE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER ERN NC... ACCOMPANIED BY A MID LEVEL WAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY JUST UPSHEAR. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT THE RAIN SHIELD IS
LIKELY TO HOLD JUST TO OUR EAST OR PERHAPS BRUSH ALONG THE FAR ERN
COASTAL PLAIN AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER ERN NC... A SCENARIO NEARLY IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS. WILL RETAIN A LOW CHANCE POP OVER
THE CENTRAL/ERN FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY EVENING... THEN EXPECT DRY
WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO
OUR SW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF CENTRAL NC. IT`S A DIFFERENT
STORY NEAR THE GROUND HOWEVER... AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HOLDING OVER THE ERN HALF OF NC ALONG WITH A WET GROUND AND
LIGHT OR CALM SURFACE WINDS LEAD TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT... PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE AND FAY TO
THE EAST/NORTHEAST. EXPECT ABOVE-NORMAL LOWS FROM 67-72. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN FEATURING A BROAD TROUGH OVER ERN NC AND KY-
CENTERED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WRN NC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE... WHILE
ALOFT... HEIGHTS RISE OVER NC IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE... AND
AHEAD OF THE LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIR THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALTHOUGH A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU
PARTICULARLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE
MORNING FOG LIFTS AND MIXES OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA... EXPECT
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR ERN CWA... WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER AND WHERE MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OR
EXCEED 1000 J/KG... BUT THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR ASCENT AND LIMITED
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW. HIGHS 88-92 WITH
THICKNESSES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS 69-72. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENT OF THE LONG TERM AS
THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH NO REAL
DISCERNIBLE JETS OR STRONG SHORTWAVES IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE BUILT AROUND LOWER
LEVEL FEATURES.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE VERY
WEAK WITH NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANCE BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH
FORCING FOR A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND RETROGRADE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATER ON FRIDAY AND GIVING US A COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY RUN IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND THEN DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. -RE

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:

INT/GSO: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT AT
THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
IFR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (09-13Z). OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

RDU/FAY/RWI: DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT
EASTERN TERMINALS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN THE PRESENCE OF CALM
WINDS...MOIST AIRMASS...AND MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS FROM RECENT
RAINFALL. EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS ATTENDANT EITHER LOW CEILINGS OR
LOW VISBYS IN DENSE DOG...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE
WORST CONDITIONS IN THE 08-13Z TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD ASIDE FROM A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER AT THE
FAY/RWI TERMINALS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. NOTE: THE RDU
TERMINAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR DENSE FOG
TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE
MORNING. -VINCENT

LOOKING BEYOND 00Z WED: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT MVFR TO IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH SAT.
SCATTERED SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
WED THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW WITH
DETAILS OF POSSIBLE TIMING OR COVERAGE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 010220
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1020 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. OTHERWISE... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL HOLD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY EXTENDS OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

THE SHIELD OF TROPICAL RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...
WHILE THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED WELL TO OUR NE. WHILE A FEW
SHALLOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE... THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL HOLD JUST TO OUR EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CHS
COAST... AND THIS WILL TRACK TO THE NNE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER ERN NC... ACCOMPANIED BY A MID LEVEL WAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY JUST UPSHEAR. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT THE RAIN SHIELD IS
LIKELY TO HOLD JUST TO OUR EAST OR PERHAPS BRUSH ALONG THE FAR ERN
COASTAL PLAIN AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER ERN NC... A SCENARIO NEARLY IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS. WILL RETAIN A LOW CHANCE POP OVER
THE CENTRAL/ERN FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY EVENING... THEN EXPECT DRY
WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO
OUR SW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF CENTRAL NC. IT`S A DIFFERENT
STORY NEAR THE GROUND HOWEVER... AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HOLDING OVER THE ERN HALF OF NC ALONG WITH A WET GROUND AND
LIGHT OR CALM SURFACE WINDS LEAD TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT... PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE AND FAY TO
THE EAST/NORTHEAST. EXPECT ABOVE-NORMAL LOWS FROM 67-72. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN FEATURING A BROAD TROUGH OVER ERN NC AND KY-
CENTERED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WRN NC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE... WHILE
ALOFT... HEIGHTS RISE OVER NC IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE... AND
AHEAD OF THE LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIR THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALTHOUGH A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU
PARTICULARLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE
MORNING FOG LIFTS AND MIXES OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA... EXPECT
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR ERN CWA... WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER AND WHERE MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OR
EXCEED 1000 J/KG... BUT THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR ASCENT AND LIMITED
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW. HIGHS 88-92 WITH
THICKNESSES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS 69-72. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENT OF THE LONG TERM AS
THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH NO REAL
DISCERNIBLE JETS OR STRONG SHORTWAVES IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE BUILT AROUND LOWER
LEVEL FEATURES.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE VERY
WEAK WITH NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANCE BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH
FORCING FOR A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND RETROGRADE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATER ON FRIDAY AND GIVING US A COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY RUN IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND THEN DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. -RE

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:

INT/GSO: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT AT
THE INT/GSO TERMINALS...ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
IFR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (09-13Z). OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

RDU/FAY/RWI: DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT
EASTERN TERMINALS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN THE PRESENCE OF CALM
WINDS...MOIST AIRMASS...AND MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS FROM RECENT
RAINFALL. EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS ATTENDANT EITHER LOW CEILINGS OR
LOW VISBYS IN DENSE DOG...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE
WORST CONDITIONS IN THE 08-13Z TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BETWEEN 12-15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD ASIDE FROM A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER AT THE
FAY/RWI TERMINALS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. NOTE: THE RDU
TERMINAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR DENSE FOG
TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE
MORNING. -VINCENT

LOOKING BEYOND 00Z WED: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT MVFR TO IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH SAT.
SCATTERED SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
WED THROUGH SAT...ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW WITH
DETAILS OF POSSIBLE TIMING OR COVERAGE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...VINCENT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 311904
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. OTHERWISE... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL HOLD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY EXTENDS OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

THE SHIELD OF TROPICAL RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...
WHILE THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED WELL TO OUR NE. WHILE A FEW
SHALLOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE... THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL HOLD JUST TO OUR EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CHS
COAST... AND THIS WILL TRACK TO THE NNE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER ERN NC... ACCOMPANIED BY A MID LEVEL WAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY JUST UPSHEAR. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT THE RAIN SHIELD IS
LIKELY TO HOLD JUST TO OUR EAST OR PERHAPS BRUSH ALONG THE FAR ERN
COASTAL PLAIN AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER ERN NC... A SCENARIO NEARLY IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS. WILL RETAIN A LOW CHANCE POP OVER
THE CENTRAL/ERN FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY EVENING... THEN EXPECT DRY
WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO
OUR SW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF CENTRAL NC. IT`S A DIFFERENT
STORY NEAR THE GROUND HOWEVER... AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HOLDING OVER THE ERN HALF OF NC ALONG WITH A WET GROUND AND
LIGHT OR CALM SURFACE WINDS LEAD TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT... PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE AND FAY TO
THE EAST/NORTHEAST. EXPECT ABOVE-NORMAL LOWS FROM 67-72. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN FEATURING A BROAD TROUGH OVER ERN NC AND KY-
CENTERED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WRN NC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE... WHILE
ALOFT... HEIGHTS RISE OVER NC IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE... AND
AHEAD OF THE LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIR THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALTHOUGH A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU
PARTICULARLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE
MORNING FOG LIFTS AND MIXES OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA... EXPECT
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR ERN CWA... WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER AND WHERE MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OR
EXCEED 1000 J/KG... BUT THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR ASCENT AND LIMITED
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW. HIGHS 88-92 WITH
THICKNESSES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS 69-72. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENT OF THE LONG TERM AS
THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH NO REAL
DISCERNIBLE JETS OR STRONG SHORTWAVES IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE BUILT AROUND LOWER
LEVEL FEATURES.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE VERY
WEAK WITH NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANCE BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH
FORCING FOR A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND RETROGRADE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATER ON FRIDAY AND GIVING US A COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY RUN IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND THEN DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. -RE

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM MONDAY...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE AT INT/GSO/FAY INTO
TONIGHT... WHILE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AT
RDU/RWI. A STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH BROUGHT THIS MORNING`S
RAIN IS BEING PUSHED SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO COASTAL NC... BUT LOWER
CIGS REMAIN WELL BACK INTO CENTRAL NC WITH WEAK SURFACE WINDS AND
PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL KEEP
A HIGH CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT CENTRAL NC
TERMINALS... ALTHOUGH INT/GSO/FAY MAY BRIEFLY BREAK OUT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IFR AT RDU/RWI... ALTHOUGH THESE SITES
TOO MAY BRIEFLY JUMP UP A CATEGORY TO MVFR TODAY. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SCT AT INT/GSO OVERNIGHT... BUT WITH A THREAT OF
MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN FOG. AT FAY AND ESPECIALLY AT RDU/RWI... CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT IFR OR EVEN LIFR OVERNIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING... WITH A RISK OF MVFR TO IFR FOG. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY
LIFT AND MIX OUT TO MVFR THEN VFR TUE MORNING IN THE 14-18Z TIME
FRAME... WITH CIGS AT RWI LAST TO LIFT TO VFR.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT... BUT MVFR TO IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH SAT.
SCATTERED SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
WED THROUGH SAT... ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW WITH
DETAILS OF POSSIBLE TIMING OR COVERAGE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 311904
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. OTHERWISE... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL HOLD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY EXTENDS OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

THE SHIELD OF TROPICAL RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...
WHILE THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED WELL TO OUR NE. WHILE A FEW
SHALLOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE... THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL HOLD JUST TO OUR EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CHS
COAST... AND THIS WILL TRACK TO THE NNE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER ERN NC... ACCOMPANIED BY A MID LEVEL WAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY JUST UPSHEAR. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT THE RAIN SHIELD IS
LIKELY TO HOLD JUST TO OUR EAST OR PERHAPS BRUSH ALONG THE FAR ERN
COASTAL PLAIN AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER ERN NC... A SCENARIO NEARLY IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS. WILL RETAIN A LOW CHANCE POP OVER
THE CENTRAL/ERN FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY EVENING... THEN EXPECT DRY
WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO
OUR SW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF CENTRAL NC. IT`S A DIFFERENT
STORY NEAR THE GROUND HOWEVER... AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HOLDING OVER THE ERN HALF OF NC ALONG WITH A WET GROUND AND
LIGHT OR CALM SURFACE WINDS LEAD TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT... PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE AND FAY TO
THE EAST/NORTHEAST. EXPECT ABOVE-NORMAL LOWS FROM 67-72. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN FEATURING A BROAD TROUGH OVER ERN NC AND KY-
CENTERED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WRN NC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE... WHILE
ALOFT... HEIGHTS RISE OVER NC IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE... AND
AHEAD OF THE LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIR THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALTHOUGH A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU
PARTICULARLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE
MORNING FOG LIFTS AND MIXES OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA... EXPECT
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR ERN CWA... WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER AND WHERE MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OR
EXCEED 1000 J/KG... BUT THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR ASCENT AND LIMITED
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW. HIGHS 88-92 WITH
THICKNESSES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS 69-72. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENT OF THE LONG TERM AS
THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH NO REAL
DISCERNIBLE JETS OR STRONG SHORTWAVES IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE BUILT AROUND LOWER
LEVEL FEATURES.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE VERY
WEAK WITH NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANCE BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH
FORCING FOR A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND RETROGRADE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATER ON FRIDAY AND GIVING US A COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY RUN IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND THEN DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. -RE

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM MONDAY...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE AT INT/GSO/FAY INTO
TONIGHT... WHILE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AT
RDU/RWI. A STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH BROUGHT THIS MORNING`S
RAIN IS BEING PUSHED SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO COASTAL NC... BUT LOWER
CIGS REMAIN WELL BACK INTO CENTRAL NC WITH WEAK SURFACE WINDS AND
PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL KEEP
A HIGH CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT CENTRAL NC
TERMINALS... ALTHOUGH INT/GSO/FAY MAY BRIEFLY BREAK OUT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IFR AT RDU/RWI... ALTHOUGH THESE SITES
TOO MAY BRIEFLY JUMP UP A CATEGORY TO MVFR TODAY. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SCT AT INT/GSO OVERNIGHT... BUT WITH A THREAT OF
MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN FOG. AT FAY AND ESPECIALLY AT RDU/RWI... CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT IFR OR EVEN LIFR OVERNIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING... WITH A RISK OF MVFR TO IFR FOG. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY
LIFT AND MIX OUT TO MVFR THEN VFR TUE MORNING IN THE 14-18Z TIME
FRAME... WITH CIGS AT RWI LAST TO LIFT TO VFR.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT... BUT MVFR TO IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH SAT.
SCATTERED SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
WED THROUGH SAT... ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW WITH
DETAILS OF POSSIBLE TIMING OR COVERAGE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 311904
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. OTHERWISE... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL HOLD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY EXTENDS OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

THE SHIELD OF TROPICAL RAIN HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...
WHILE THE MID LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED WELL TO OUR NE. WHILE A FEW
SHALLOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE... THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL HOLD JUST TO OUR EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CHS
COAST... AND THIS WILL TRACK TO THE NNE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER ERN NC... ACCOMPANIED BY A MID LEVEL WAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY JUST UPSHEAR. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT THE RAIN SHIELD IS
LIKELY TO HOLD JUST TO OUR EAST OR PERHAPS BRUSH ALONG THE FAR ERN
COASTAL PLAIN AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER ERN NC... A SCENARIO NEARLY IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS. WILL RETAIN A LOW CHANCE POP OVER
THE CENTRAL/ERN FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY EVENING... THEN EXPECT DRY
WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO
OUR SW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF CENTRAL NC. IT`S A DIFFERENT
STORY NEAR THE GROUND HOWEVER... AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HOLDING OVER THE ERN HALF OF NC ALONG WITH A WET GROUND AND
LIGHT OR CALM SURFACE WINDS LEAD TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT... PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE AND FAY TO
THE EAST/NORTHEAST. EXPECT ABOVE-NORMAL LOWS FROM 67-72. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN FEATURING A BROAD TROUGH OVER ERN NC AND KY-
CENTERED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO WRN NC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE... WHILE
ALOFT... HEIGHTS RISE OVER NC IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE... AND
AHEAD OF THE LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIR THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...
ALTHOUGH A MODERATE AMOUNT OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU
PARTICULARLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ONCE THE
MORNING FOG LIFTS AND MIXES OVER THE NRN AND ERN CWA... EXPECT
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM IN THE FAR ERN CWA... WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER AND WHERE MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OR
EXCEED 1000 J/KG... BUT THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR ASCENT AND LIMITED
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE LOW. HIGHS 88-92 WITH
THICKNESSES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TUE NIGHT WITH
LOWS 69-72. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENT OF THE LONG TERM AS
THERE IS VERY LITTLE FORCING IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH NO REAL
DISCERNIBLE JETS OR STRONG SHORTWAVES IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NC.
THEREFORE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE BUILT AROUND LOWER
LEVEL FEATURES.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE VERY
WEAK WITH NOT MUCH OF AN AIRMASS CHANCE BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH
FORCING FOR A SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND RETROGRADE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LATER ON FRIDAY AND GIVING US A COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY RUN IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND THEN DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. -RE

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM MONDAY...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE AT INT/GSO/FAY INTO
TONIGHT... WHILE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AT
RDU/RWI. A STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH BROUGHT THIS MORNING`S
RAIN IS BEING PUSHED SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO COASTAL NC... BUT LOWER
CIGS REMAIN WELL BACK INTO CENTRAL NC WITH WEAK SURFACE WINDS AND
PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL KEEP
A HIGH CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT CENTRAL NC
TERMINALS... ALTHOUGH INT/GSO/FAY MAY BRIEFLY BREAK OUT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IFR AT RDU/RWI... ALTHOUGH THESE SITES
TOO MAY BRIEFLY JUMP UP A CATEGORY TO MVFR TODAY. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SCT AT INT/GSO OVERNIGHT... BUT WITH A THREAT OF
MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN FOG. AT FAY AND ESPECIALLY AT RDU/RWI... CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT IFR OR EVEN LIFR OVERNIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING... WITH A RISK OF MVFR TO IFR FOG. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY
LIFT AND MIX OUT TO MVFR THEN VFR TUE MORNING IN THE 14-18Z TIME
FRAME... WITH CIGS AT RWI LAST TO LIFT TO VFR.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT... BUT MVFR TO IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH SAT.
SCATTERED SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
WED THROUGH SAT... ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW WITH
DETAILS OF POSSIBLE TIMING OR COVERAGE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 311725
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
125 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. OTHERWISE... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL HOLD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY EXTENDS OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM MONDAY...

EARLIER UPDATE TARGETED THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA WITH HIGHEST POPS
(LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) FOR THE ONGOING TROPICAL RAINFALL. THESE HIGH
POPS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT CROSSED THE STATE EARLIER THIS MORNING HEADS
NNE INTO VA. RAIN RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN COMMON...
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME MINOR URBAN AND STREET FLOODING AND RISING
CREEKS BUT UNDER FLOODING THRESHOLDS... AND THIS RAIN SHOULD
ACTUALLY BE BENEFICIAL FOR MOST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRYING
OVER THE WRN CWA... SO WHILE A FEW WRAPAROUND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN AREAS NW OF THE TRIANGLE... THESE SHOULD GENERATE LITTLE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. EASTERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-
95 MAY SEE A SLOWER TAPERING OF THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN...
GIVEN THAT ANOTHER WAVE NOW APPROACHING SAVANNAH GA WILL BE TRACKING
TO THE N OR NNE... SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR... AND THIS
TREND IS NOTED WELL IN THE RECENT RAP RUNS. POPS WILL START OUT
RANGING FROM ISOLATED AT MOST WEST TO CATEGORICAL EAST... TRENDING
DOWNWARD WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. ANY INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE MARGINAL... WITH MUCAPE MOSTLY HOLDING AT OR BELOW 1000
J/KG... SO WILL KEEP ANY THUNDER MENTION AT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT
MOST. TEMPS ARE A TOUGH CALL GIVEN THE GREATLY LIMITED INSOLATION IN
THE EAST... SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S WEST AND NEAR 80 TO
LOWER 80S EAST... WITH THESE EASTERN HIGHS NOT BEING REACHED UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE DAY. -GIH

LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...

A WEAK/NONDESCRIPT SFC PATTERN WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC RETROGRADES WESTWARD.
OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING ATOP A SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS...
FORCING MECHANISM IS LACKING WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION AT
BEST.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT TRACKING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK TO ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WRT WHAT HAPPENS TO IT. THE LATEST ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE S/W SHIFTING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON... WITH BRIEF S/W RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA BEFORE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...
THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER MOVING THE INITIAL S/W DISTURBANCE THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY... LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE S/W IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO A MID LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AS A STRONG 595 DECAMETER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THIS PATTERN... THE LOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACTUALLY SINKS FURTHER SOUTH AND NOT IN
THE DIRECTION OF CENTRAL. AT THE SURFACE... WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE
OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL S/W
DISTURBANCE... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING/EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND. THUS... AT
THIS TIME... WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW... SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE... GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT
WILL GENERALLY BE MEAN RIDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THIS TIME (WITH THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES/WEAK CLOSED LOWS).
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO POSSIBLY SLIGHT
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM MONDAY...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE AT INT/GSO/FAY INTO
TONIGHT... WHILE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AT
RDU/RWI. A STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH BROUGHT THIS MORNING`S
RAIN IS BEING PUSHED SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO COASTAL NC... BUT LOWER
CIGS REMAIN WELL BACK INTO CENTRAL NC WITH WEAK SURFACE WINDS AND
PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL KEEP
A HIGH CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT CENTRAL NC
TERMINALS... ALTHOUGH INT/GSO/FAY MAY BRIEFLY BREAK OUT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IFR AT RDU/RWI... ALTHOUGH THESE SITES
TOO MAY BRIEFLY JUMP UP A CATEGORY TO MVFR TODAY. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SCT AT INT/GSO OVERNIGHT... BUT WITH A THREAT OF
MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN FOG. AT FAY AND ESPECIALLY AT RDU/RWI... CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT IFR OR EVEN LIFR OVERNIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING... WITH A RISK OF MVFR TO IFR FOG. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY
LIFT AND MIX OUT TO MVFR THEN VFR TUE MORNING IN THE 14-18Z TIME
FRAME... WITH CIGS AT RWI LAST TO LIFT TO VFR.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT... BUT MVFR TO IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH SAT.
SCATTERED SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
WED THROUGH SAT... ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW WITH
DETAILS OF POSSIBLE TIMING OR COVERAGE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 311725
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
125 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. OTHERWISE... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL HOLD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY EXTENDS OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM MONDAY...

EARLIER UPDATE TARGETED THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA WITH HIGHEST POPS
(LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) FOR THE ONGOING TROPICAL RAINFALL. THESE HIGH
POPS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT CROSSED THE STATE EARLIER THIS MORNING HEADS
NNE INTO VA. RAIN RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN COMMON...
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME MINOR URBAN AND STREET FLOODING AND RISING
CREEKS BUT UNDER FLOODING THRESHOLDS... AND THIS RAIN SHOULD
ACTUALLY BE BENEFICIAL FOR MOST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRYING
OVER THE WRN CWA... SO WHILE A FEW WRAPAROUND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN AREAS NW OF THE TRIANGLE... THESE SHOULD GENERATE LITTLE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. EASTERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-
95 MAY SEE A SLOWER TAPERING OF THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN...
GIVEN THAT ANOTHER WAVE NOW APPROACHING SAVANNAH GA WILL BE TRACKING
TO THE N OR NNE... SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR... AND THIS
TREND IS NOTED WELL IN THE RECENT RAP RUNS. POPS WILL START OUT
RANGING FROM ISOLATED AT MOST WEST TO CATEGORICAL EAST... TRENDING
DOWNWARD WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. ANY INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE MARGINAL... WITH MUCAPE MOSTLY HOLDING AT OR BELOW 1000
J/KG... SO WILL KEEP ANY THUNDER MENTION AT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT
MOST. TEMPS ARE A TOUGH CALL GIVEN THE GREATLY LIMITED INSOLATION IN
THE EAST... SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S WEST AND NEAR 80 TO
LOWER 80S EAST... WITH THESE EASTERN HIGHS NOT BEING REACHED UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE DAY. -GIH

LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...

A WEAK/NONDESCRIPT SFC PATTERN WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC RETROGRADES WESTWARD.
OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING ATOP A SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS...
FORCING MECHANISM IS LACKING WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION AT
BEST.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT TRACKING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK TO ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WRT WHAT HAPPENS TO IT. THE LATEST ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE S/W SHIFTING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON... WITH BRIEF S/W RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA BEFORE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...
THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER MOVING THE INITIAL S/W DISTURBANCE THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY... LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE S/W IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO A MID LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AS A STRONG 595 DECAMETER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THIS PATTERN... THE LOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACTUALLY SINKS FURTHER SOUTH AND NOT IN
THE DIRECTION OF CENTRAL. AT THE SURFACE... WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE
OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL S/W
DISTURBANCE... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING/EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND. THUS... AT
THIS TIME... WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW... SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE... GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT
WILL GENERALLY BE MEAN RIDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THIS TIME (WITH THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES/WEAK CLOSED LOWS).
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO POSSIBLY SLIGHT
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM MONDAY...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE AT INT/GSO/FAY INTO
TONIGHT... WHILE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AT
RDU/RWI. A STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH BROUGHT THIS MORNING`S
RAIN IS BEING PUSHED SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO COASTAL NC... BUT LOWER
CIGS REMAIN WELL BACK INTO CENTRAL NC WITH WEAK SURFACE WINDS AND
PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL KEEP
A HIGH CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT CENTRAL NC
TERMINALS... ALTHOUGH INT/GSO/FAY MAY BRIEFLY BREAK OUT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IFR AT RDU/RWI... ALTHOUGH THESE SITES
TOO MAY BRIEFLY JUMP UP A CATEGORY TO MVFR TODAY. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SCT AT INT/GSO OVERNIGHT... BUT WITH A THREAT OF
MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN FOG. AT FAY AND ESPECIALLY AT RDU/RWI... CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT IFR OR EVEN LIFR OVERNIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING... WITH A RISK OF MVFR TO IFR FOG. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY
LIFT AND MIX OUT TO MVFR THEN VFR TUE MORNING IN THE 14-18Z TIME
FRAME... WITH CIGS AT RWI LAST TO LIFT TO VFR.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT... BUT MVFR TO IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH SAT.
SCATTERED SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
WED THROUGH SAT... ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW WITH
DETAILS OF POSSIBLE TIMING OR COVERAGE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 311725
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
125 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. OTHERWISE... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL HOLD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY EXTENDS OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM MONDAY...

EARLIER UPDATE TARGETED THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA WITH HIGHEST POPS
(LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) FOR THE ONGOING TROPICAL RAINFALL. THESE HIGH
POPS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT CROSSED THE STATE EARLIER THIS MORNING HEADS
NNE INTO VA. RAIN RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN COMMON...
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME MINOR URBAN AND STREET FLOODING AND RISING
CREEKS BUT UNDER FLOODING THRESHOLDS... AND THIS RAIN SHOULD
ACTUALLY BE BENEFICIAL FOR MOST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRYING
OVER THE WRN CWA... SO WHILE A FEW WRAPAROUND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN AREAS NW OF THE TRIANGLE... THESE SHOULD GENERATE LITTLE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. EASTERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-
95 MAY SEE A SLOWER TAPERING OF THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN...
GIVEN THAT ANOTHER WAVE NOW APPROACHING SAVANNAH GA WILL BE TRACKING
TO THE N OR NNE... SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR... AND THIS
TREND IS NOTED WELL IN THE RECENT RAP RUNS. POPS WILL START OUT
RANGING FROM ISOLATED AT MOST WEST TO CATEGORICAL EAST... TRENDING
DOWNWARD WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. ANY INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE MARGINAL... WITH MUCAPE MOSTLY HOLDING AT OR BELOW 1000
J/KG... SO WILL KEEP ANY THUNDER MENTION AT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT
MOST. TEMPS ARE A TOUGH CALL GIVEN THE GREATLY LIMITED INSOLATION IN
THE EAST... SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S WEST AND NEAR 80 TO
LOWER 80S EAST... WITH THESE EASTERN HIGHS NOT BEING REACHED UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE DAY. -GIH

LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...

A WEAK/NONDESCRIPT SFC PATTERN WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC RETROGRADES WESTWARD.
OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING ATOP A SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS...
FORCING MECHANISM IS LACKING WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION AT
BEST.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT TRACKING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK TO ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WRT WHAT HAPPENS TO IT. THE LATEST ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE S/W SHIFTING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON... WITH BRIEF S/W RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA BEFORE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...
THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER MOVING THE INITIAL S/W DISTURBANCE THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY... LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE S/W IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO A MID LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AS A STRONG 595 DECAMETER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THIS PATTERN... THE LOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACTUALLY SINKS FURTHER SOUTH AND NOT IN
THE DIRECTION OF CENTRAL. AT THE SURFACE... WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE
OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL S/W
DISTURBANCE... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING/EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND. THUS... AT
THIS TIME... WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW... SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE... GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT
WILL GENERALLY BE MEAN RIDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THIS TIME (WITH THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES/WEAK CLOSED LOWS).
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO POSSIBLY SLIGHT
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM MONDAY...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE AT INT/GSO/FAY INTO
TONIGHT... WHILE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AT
RDU/RWI. A STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH BROUGHT THIS MORNING`S
RAIN IS BEING PUSHED SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO COASTAL NC... BUT LOWER
CIGS REMAIN WELL BACK INTO CENTRAL NC WITH WEAK SURFACE WINDS AND
PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL KEEP
A HIGH CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT CENTRAL NC
TERMINALS... ALTHOUGH INT/GSO/FAY MAY BRIEFLY BREAK OUT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IFR AT RDU/RWI... ALTHOUGH THESE SITES
TOO MAY BRIEFLY JUMP UP A CATEGORY TO MVFR TODAY. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SCT AT INT/GSO OVERNIGHT... BUT WITH A THREAT OF
MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN FOG. AT FAY AND ESPECIALLY AT RDU/RWI... CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT IFR OR EVEN LIFR OVERNIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING... WITH A RISK OF MVFR TO IFR FOG. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY
LIFT AND MIX OUT TO MVFR THEN VFR TUE MORNING IN THE 14-18Z TIME
FRAME... WITH CIGS AT RWI LAST TO LIFT TO VFR.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT... BUT MVFR TO IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH SAT.
SCATTERED SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
WED THROUGH SAT... ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW WITH
DETAILS OF POSSIBLE TIMING OR COVERAGE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 311725
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
125 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. OTHERWISE... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL HOLD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY EXTENDS OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM MONDAY...

EARLIER UPDATE TARGETED THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA WITH HIGHEST POPS
(LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) FOR THE ONGOING TROPICAL RAINFALL. THESE HIGH
POPS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT CROSSED THE STATE EARLIER THIS MORNING HEADS
NNE INTO VA. RAIN RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN COMMON...
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME MINOR URBAN AND STREET FLOODING AND RISING
CREEKS BUT UNDER FLOODING THRESHOLDS... AND THIS RAIN SHOULD
ACTUALLY BE BENEFICIAL FOR MOST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRYING
OVER THE WRN CWA... SO WHILE A FEW WRAPAROUND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN AREAS NW OF THE TRIANGLE... THESE SHOULD GENERATE LITTLE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. EASTERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-
95 MAY SEE A SLOWER TAPERING OF THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN...
GIVEN THAT ANOTHER WAVE NOW APPROACHING SAVANNAH GA WILL BE TRACKING
TO THE N OR NNE... SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR... AND THIS
TREND IS NOTED WELL IN THE RECENT RAP RUNS. POPS WILL START OUT
RANGING FROM ISOLATED AT MOST WEST TO CATEGORICAL EAST... TRENDING
DOWNWARD WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. ANY INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE MARGINAL... WITH MUCAPE MOSTLY HOLDING AT OR BELOW 1000
J/KG... SO WILL KEEP ANY THUNDER MENTION AT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT
MOST. TEMPS ARE A TOUGH CALL GIVEN THE GREATLY LIMITED INSOLATION IN
THE EAST... SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S WEST AND NEAR 80 TO
LOWER 80S EAST... WITH THESE EASTERN HIGHS NOT BEING REACHED UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE DAY. -GIH

LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...

A WEAK/NONDESCRIPT SFC PATTERN WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC RETROGRADES WESTWARD.
OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING ATOP A SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS...
FORCING MECHANISM IS LACKING WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION AT
BEST.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT TRACKING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK TO ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WRT WHAT HAPPENS TO IT. THE LATEST ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE S/W SHIFTING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON... WITH BRIEF S/W RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA BEFORE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...
THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER MOVING THE INITIAL S/W DISTURBANCE THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY... LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE S/W IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO A MID LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AS A STRONG 595 DECAMETER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THIS PATTERN... THE LOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACTUALLY SINKS FURTHER SOUTH AND NOT IN
THE DIRECTION OF CENTRAL. AT THE SURFACE... WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE
OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL S/W
DISTURBANCE... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING/EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND. THUS... AT
THIS TIME... WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW... SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE... GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT
WILL GENERALLY BE MEAN RIDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THIS TIME (WITH THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES/WEAK CLOSED LOWS).
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO POSSIBLY SLIGHT
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM MONDAY...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE AT INT/GSO/FAY INTO
TONIGHT... WHILE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE AT
RDU/RWI. A STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH BROUGHT THIS MORNING`S
RAIN IS BEING PUSHED SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO COASTAL NC... BUT LOWER
CIGS REMAIN WELL BACK INTO CENTRAL NC WITH WEAK SURFACE WINDS AND
PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL KEEP
A HIGH CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT CENTRAL NC
TERMINALS... ALTHOUGH INT/GSO/FAY MAY BRIEFLY BREAK OUT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IFR AT RDU/RWI... ALTHOUGH THESE SITES
TOO MAY BRIEFLY JUMP UP A CATEGORY TO MVFR TODAY. CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SCT AT INT/GSO OVERNIGHT... BUT WITH A THREAT OF
MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN FOG. AT FAY AND ESPECIALLY AT RDU/RWI... CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT IFR OR EVEN LIFR OVERNIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING... WITH A RISK OF MVFR TO IFR FOG. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY
LIFT AND MIX OUT TO MVFR THEN VFR TUE MORNING IN THE 14-18Z TIME
FRAME... WITH CIGS AT RWI LAST TO LIFT TO VFR.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON
INTO TUE NIGHT... BUT MVFR TO IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH SAT.
SCATTERED SUB-VFR SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
WED THROUGH SAT... ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW WITH
DETAILS OF POSSIBLE TIMING OR COVERAGE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...HARTFIELD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 311335
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
935 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
AREA LATE THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE
COAST. ASIDE FROM A WEAK WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
MIDWEEK...GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM MONDAY...

EARLIER UPDATE TARGETED THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA WITH HIGHEST POPS
(LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) FOR THE ONGOING TROPICAL RAINFALL. THESE HIGH
POPS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT CROSSED THE STATE EARLIER THIS MORNING HEADS
NNE INTO VA. RAIN RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN COMMON...
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME MINOR URBAN AND STREET FLOODING AND RISING
CREEKS BUT UNDER FLOODING THRESHOLDS... AND THIS RAIN SHOULD
ACTUALLY BE BENEFICIAL FOR MOST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRYING
OVER THE WRN CWA... SO WHILE A FEW WRAPAROUND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN AREAS NW OF THE TRIANGLE... THESE SHOULD GENERATE LITTLE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. EASTERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-
95 MAY SEE A SLOWER TAPERING OF THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN...
GIVEN THAT ANOTHER WAVE NOW APPROACHING SAVANNAH GA WILL BE TRACKING
TO THE N OR NNE... SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR... AND THIS
TREND IS NOTED WELL IN THE RECENT RAP RUNS. POPS WILL START OUT
RANGING FROM ISOLATED AT MOST WEST TO CATEGORICAL EAST... TRENDING
DOWNWARD WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. ANY INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE MARGINAL... WITH MUCAPE MOSTLY HOLDING AT OR BELOW 1000
J/KG... SO WILL KEEP ANY THUNDER MENTION AT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT
MOST. TEMPS ARE A TOUGH CALL GIVEN THE GREATLY LIMITED INSOLATION IN
THE EAST... SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S WEST AND NEAR 80 TO
LOWER 80S EAST... WITH THESE EASTERN HIGHS NOT BEING REACHED UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE DAY. -GIH

LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...

A WEAK/NONDESCRIPT SFC PATTERN WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC RETROGRADES WESTWARD.
OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING ATOP A SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS...
FORCING MECHANISM IS LACKING WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION AT
BEST.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT TRACKING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK TO ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WRT WHAT HAPPENS TO IT. THE LATEST ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE S/W SHIFTING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON... WITH BRIEF S/W RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA BEFORE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...
THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER MOVING THE INITIAL S/W DISTURBANCE THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY... LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE S/W IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO A MID LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AS A STRONG 595 DECAMETER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THIS PATTERN... THE LOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACTUALLY SINKS FURTHER SOUTH AND NOT IN
THE DIRECTION OF CENTRAL. AT THE SURFACE... WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE
OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL S/W
DISTURBANCE... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING/EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND. THUS... AT
THIS TIME... WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW... SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE... GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT
WILL GENERALLY BE MEAN RIDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THIS TIME (WITH THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES/WEAK CLOSED LOWS).
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO POSSIBLY SLIGHT
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 657 AM MONDAY...

DAMPENING MID-LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO MOVE STEADILY WEST TO EAST WITH ASSOCIATED IFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.

AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COULD
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EASTERN TERMINALS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING ON TUESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 311335
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
935 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
AREA LATE THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE
COAST. ASIDE FROM A WEAK WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
MIDWEEK...GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM MONDAY...

EARLIER UPDATE TARGETED THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA WITH HIGHEST POPS
(LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) FOR THE ONGOING TROPICAL RAINFALL. THESE HIGH
POPS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT CROSSED THE STATE EARLIER THIS MORNING HEADS
NNE INTO VA. RAIN RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN COMMON...
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME MINOR URBAN AND STREET FLOODING AND RISING
CREEKS BUT UNDER FLOODING THRESHOLDS... AND THIS RAIN SHOULD
ACTUALLY BE BENEFICIAL FOR MOST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRYING
OVER THE WRN CWA... SO WHILE A FEW WRAPAROUND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN AREAS NW OF THE TRIANGLE... THESE SHOULD GENERATE LITTLE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. EASTERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-
95 MAY SEE A SLOWER TAPERING OF THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN...
GIVEN THAT ANOTHER WAVE NOW APPROACHING SAVANNAH GA WILL BE TRACKING
TO THE N OR NNE... SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR... AND THIS
TREND IS NOTED WELL IN THE RECENT RAP RUNS. POPS WILL START OUT
RANGING FROM ISOLATED AT MOST WEST TO CATEGORICAL EAST... TRENDING
DOWNWARD WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. ANY INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE MARGINAL... WITH MUCAPE MOSTLY HOLDING AT OR BELOW 1000
J/KG... SO WILL KEEP ANY THUNDER MENTION AT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT
MOST. TEMPS ARE A TOUGH CALL GIVEN THE GREATLY LIMITED INSOLATION IN
THE EAST... SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S WEST AND NEAR 80 TO
LOWER 80S EAST... WITH THESE EASTERN HIGHS NOT BEING REACHED UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE DAY. -GIH

LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...

A WEAK/NONDESCRIPT SFC PATTERN WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC RETROGRADES WESTWARD.
OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING ATOP A SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS...
FORCING MECHANISM IS LACKING WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION AT
BEST.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT TRACKING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK TO ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WRT WHAT HAPPENS TO IT. THE LATEST ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE S/W SHIFTING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON... WITH BRIEF S/W RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA BEFORE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...
THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER MOVING THE INITIAL S/W DISTURBANCE THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY... LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE S/W IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO A MID LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AS A STRONG 595 DECAMETER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THIS PATTERN... THE LOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACTUALLY SINKS FURTHER SOUTH AND NOT IN
THE DIRECTION OF CENTRAL. AT THE SURFACE... WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE
OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL S/W
DISTURBANCE... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING/EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND. THUS... AT
THIS TIME... WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW... SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE... GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT
WILL GENERALLY BE MEAN RIDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THIS TIME (WITH THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES/WEAK CLOSED LOWS).
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO POSSIBLY SLIGHT
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 657 AM MONDAY...

DAMPENING MID-LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO MOVE STEADILY WEST TO EAST WITH ASSOCIATED IFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.

AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COULD
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EASTERN TERMINALS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING ON TUESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 311335
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
935 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
AREA LATE THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE
COAST. ASIDE FROM A WEAK WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
MIDWEEK...GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM MONDAY...

EARLIER UPDATE TARGETED THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA WITH HIGHEST POPS
(LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) FOR THE ONGOING TROPICAL RAINFALL. THESE HIGH
POPS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT CROSSED THE STATE EARLIER THIS MORNING HEADS
NNE INTO VA. RAIN RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN COMMON...
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME MINOR URBAN AND STREET FLOODING AND RISING
CREEKS BUT UNDER FLOODING THRESHOLDS... AND THIS RAIN SHOULD
ACTUALLY BE BENEFICIAL FOR MOST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRYING
OVER THE WRN CWA... SO WHILE A FEW WRAPAROUND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN AREAS NW OF THE TRIANGLE... THESE SHOULD GENERATE LITTLE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. EASTERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-
95 MAY SEE A SLOWER TAPERING OF THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN...
GIVEN THAT ANOTHER WAVE NOW APPROACHING SAVANNAH GA WILL BE TRACKING
TO THE N OR NNE... SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR... AND THIS
TREND IS NOTED WELL IN THE RECENT RAP RUNS. POPS WILL START OUT
RANGING FROM ISOLATED AT MOST WEST TO CATEGORICAL EAST... TRENDING
DOWNWARD WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. ANY INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE MARGINAL... WITH MUCAPE MOSTLY HOLDING AT OR BELOW 1000
J/KG... SO WILL KEEP ANY THUNDER MENTION AT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT
MOST. TEMPS ARE A TOUGH CALL GIVEN THE GREATLY LIMITED INSOLATION IN
THE EAST... SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S WEST AND NEAR 80 TO
LOWER 80S EAST... WITH THESE EASTERN HIGHS NOT BEING REACHED UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE DAY. -GIH

LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...

A WEAK/NONDESCRIPT SFC PATTERN WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC RETROGRADES WESTWARD.
OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING ATOP A SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS...
FORCING MECHANISM IS LACKING WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION AT
BEST.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT TRACKING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK TO ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WRT WHAT HAPPENS TO IT. THE LATEST ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE S/W SHIFTING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON... WITH BRIEF S/W RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA BEFORE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...
THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER MOVING THE INITIAL S/W DISTURBANCE THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY... LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE S/W IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO A MID LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AS A STRONG 595 DECAMETER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THIS PATTERN... THE LOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACTUALLY SINKS FURTHER SOUTH AND NOT IN
THE DIRECTION OF CENTRAL. AT THE SURFACE... WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE
OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL S/W
DISTURBANCE... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING/EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND. THUS... AT
THIS TIME... WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW... SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE... GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT
WILL GENERALLY BE MEAN RIDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THIS TIME (WITH THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES/WEAK CLOSED LOWS).
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO POSSIBLY SLIGHT
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 657 AM MONDAY...

DAMPENING MID-LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO MOVE STEADILY WEST TO EAST WITH ASSOCIATED IFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.

AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COULD
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EASTERN TERMINALS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING ON TUESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 311057
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
657 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...

DAMPENING MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED ENHANCED 850-700MB SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DIRECT
A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE(PWATS OF 2.0-2.25)NORTHWARD INTO
EASTERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...THAT WILL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIALLY DRIVEN BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH DYNAMICS AND ENHANCED MID/UPPER
LEVEL WIND FIELDS...BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT WILL PROGRESS STEADILY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT
AND SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY
MIDDAY...BEST FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT ALONG THE COAST AND
PERHAPS JUST OFFSHORE...INVOF OF A WEAK INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH AND
EXITING TROPICAL PLUME. WHILE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERED DIURNAL HEATING AND
RESULTING MODERATE BUOYANCY WITHIN THE LINGERING MOIST ~2.0" PWAT
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NC WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PRECIP COVERAGE AND HOW THE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER EVOLVES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY COULD RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...

A WEAK/NONDESCRIPT SFC PATTERN WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC RETROGRADES WESTWARD.
OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING ATOP A SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS...
FORCING MECHANISM IS LACKING WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION AT
BEST.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT TRACKING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK TO ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WRT WHAT HAPPENS TO IT. THE LATEST ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE S/W SHIFTING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON... WITH BRIEF S/W RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA BEFORE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...
THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER MOVING THE INITIAL S/W DISTURBANCE THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY... LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE S/W IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO A MID LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AS A STRONG 595 DECAMETER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THIS PATTERN... THE LOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACTUALLY SINKS FURTHER SOUTH AND NOT IN
THE DIRECTION OF CENTRAL. AT THE SURFACE... WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE
OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL S/W
DISTURBANCE... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING/EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND. THUS... AT
THIS TIME... WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW... SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE... GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT
WILL GENERALLY BE MEAN RIDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THIS TIME (WITH THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES/WEAK CLOSED LOWS).
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO POSSIBLY SLIGHT
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 657 AM MONDAY...

DAMPENING MID-LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO MOVE STEADILY WEST TO EAST WITH ASSOCIATED IFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.

AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COULD
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EASTERN TERMINALS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING ON TUESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 311057
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
657 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...

DAMPENING MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED ENHANCED 850-700MB SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DIRECT
A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE(PWATS OF 2.0-2.25)NORTHWARD INTO
EASTERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...THAT WILL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIALLY DRIVEN BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH DYNAMICS AND ENHANCED MID/UPPER
LEVEL WIND FIELDS...BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT WILL PROGRESS STEADILY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT
AND SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY
MIDDAY...BEST FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT ALONG THE COAST AND
PERHAPS JUST OFFSHORE...INVOF OF A WEAK INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH AND
EXITING TROPICAL PLUME. WHILE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERED DIURNAL HEATING AND
RESULTING MODERATE BUOYANCY WITHIN THE LINGERING MOIST ~2.0" PWAT
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NC WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PRECIP COVERAGE AND HOW THE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER EVOLVES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY COULD RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...

A WEAK/NONDESCRIPT SFC PATTERN WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC RETROGRADES WESTWARD.
OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING ATOP A SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS...
FORCING MECHANISM IS LACKING WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION AT
BEST.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT TRACKING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK TO ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WRT WHAT HAPPENS TO IT. THE LATEST ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE S/W SHIFTING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON... WITH BRIEF S/W RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA BEFORE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...
THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER MOVING THE INITIAL S/W DISTURBANCE THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY... LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE S/W IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO A MID LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AS A STRONG 595 DECAMETER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THIS PATTERN... THE LOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACTUALLY SINKS FURTHER SOUTH AND NOT IN
THE DIRECTION OF CENTRAL. AT THE SURFACE... WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE
OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL S/W
DISTURBANCE... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING/EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND. THUS... AT
THIS TIME... WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW... SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE... GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT
WILL GENERALLY BE MEAN RIDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THIS TIME (WITH THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES/WEAK CLOSED LOWS).
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO POSSIBLY SLIGHT
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 657 AM MONDAY...

DAMPENING MID-LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO MOVE STEADILY WEST TO EAST WITH ASSOCIATED IFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.

AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COULD
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EASTERN TERMINALS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING ON TUESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 311057
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
657 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...

DAMPENING MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED ENHANCED 850-700MB SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DIRECT
A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE(PWATS OF 2.0-2.25)NORTHWARD INTO
EASTERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...THAT WILL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIALLY DRIVEN BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH DYNAMICS AND ENHANCED MID/UPPER
LEVEL WIND FIELDS...BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT WILL PROGRESS STEADILY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT
AND SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY
MIDDAY...BEST FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT ALONG THE COAST AND
PERHAPS JUST OFFSHORE...INVOF OF A WEAK INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH AND
EXITING TROPICAL PLUME. WHILE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERED DIURNAL HEATING AND
RESULTING MODERATE BUOYANCY WITHIN THE LINGERING MOIST ~2.0" PWAT
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NC WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PRECIP COVERAGE AND HOW THE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER EVOLVES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY COULD RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...

A WEAK/NONDESCRIPT SFC PATTERN WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC RETROGRADES WESTWARD.
OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING ATOP A SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS...
FORCING MECHANISM IS LACKING WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION AT
BEST.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT TRACKING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK TO ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WRT WHAT HAPPENS TO IT. THE LATEST ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE S/W SHIFTING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON... WITH BRIEF S/W RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA BEFORE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...
THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER MOVING THE INITIAL S/W DISTURBANCE THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY... LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE S/W IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO A MID LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AS A STRONG 595 DECAMETER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THIS PATTERN... THE LOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACTUALLY SINKS FURTHER SOUTH AND NOT IN
THE DIRECTION OF CENTRAL. AT THE SURFACE... WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE
OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL S/W
DISTURBANCE... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING/EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND. THUS... AT
THIS TIME... WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW... SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE... GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT
WILL GENERALLY BE MEAN RIDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THIS TIME (WITH THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES/WEAK CLOSED LOWS).
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO POSSIBLY SLIGHT
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 657 AM MONDAY...

DAMPENING MID-LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO MOVE STEADILY WEST TO EAST WITH ASSOCIATED IFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.

AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COULD
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EASTERN TERMINALS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING ON TUESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 311057
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
657 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...

DAMPENING MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED ENHANCED 850-700MB SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DIRECT
A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE(PWATS OF 2.0-2.25)NORTHWARD INTO
EASTERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...THAT WILL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIALLY DRIVEN BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH DYNAMICS AND ENHANCED MID/UPPER
LEVEL WIND FIELDS...BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT WILL PROGRESS STEADILY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT
AND SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY
MIDDAY...BEST FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT ALONG THE COAST AND
PERHAPS JUST OFFSHORE...INVOF OF A WEAK INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH AND
EXITING TROPICAL PLUME. WHILE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERED DIURNAL HEATING AND
RESULTING MODERATE BUOYANCY WITHIN THE LINGERING MOIST ~2.0" PWAT
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NC WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PRECIP COVERAGE AND HOW THE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER EVOLVES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY COULD RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...

A WEAK/NONDESCRIPT SFC PATTERN WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC RETROGRADES WESTWARD.
OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING ATOP A SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS...
FORCING MECHANISM IS LACKING WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION AT
BEST.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT TRACKING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK TO ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WRT WHAT HAPPENS TO IT. THE LATEST ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE S/W SHIFTING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON... WITH BRIEF S/W RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA BEFORE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...
THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER MOVING THE INITIAL S/W DISTURBANCE THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY... LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE S/W IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO A MID LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AS A STRONG 595 DECAMETER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THIS PATTERN... THE LOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACTUALLY SINKS FURTHER SOUTH AND NOT IN
THE DIRECTION OF CENTRAL. AT THE SURFACE... WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE
OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL S/W
DISTURBANCE... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING/EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND. THUS... AT
THIS TIME... WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW... SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE... GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT
WILL GENERALLY BE MEAN RIDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THIS TIME (WITH THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES/WEAK CLOSED LOWS).
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO POSSIBLY SLIGHT
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 657 AM MONDAY...

DAMPENING MID-LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO MOVE STEADILY WEST TO EAST WITH ASSOCIATED IFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.

AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COULD
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EASTERN TERMINALS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING ON TUESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 310751
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
350 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...

DAMPENING MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED ENHANCED 850-700MB SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DIRECT
A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE(PWATS OF 2.0-2.25)NORTHWARD INTO
EASTERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...THAT WILL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIALLY DRIVEN BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH DYNAMICS AND ENHANCED MID/UPPER
LEVEL WIND FIELDS...BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT WILL PROGRESS STEADILY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT
AND SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY
MIDDAY...BEST FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT ALONG THE COAST AND
PERHAPS JUST OFFSHORE...INVOF OF A WEAK INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH AND
EXITING TROPICAL PLUME. WHILE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERED DIURNAL HEATING AND
RESULTING MODERATE BUOYANCY WITHIN THE LINGERING MOIST ~2.0" PWAT
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NC WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PRECIP COVERAGE AND HOW THE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER EVOLVES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY COULD RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...

A WEAK/NONDESCRIPT SFC PATTERN WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC RETROGRADES WESTWARD.
OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING ATOP A SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS...
FORCING MECHANISM IS LACKING WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION AT
BEST.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT TRACKING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK TO ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WRT WHAT HAPPENS TO IT. THE LATEST ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE S/W SHIFTING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON... WITH BRIEF S/W RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA BEFORE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...
THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER MOVING THE INITIAL S/W DISTURBANCE THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY... LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE S/W IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO A MID LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AS A STRONG 595 DECAMETER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THIS PATTERN... THE LOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACTUALLY SINKS FURTHER SOUTH AND NOT IN
THE DIRECTION OF CENTRAL. AT THE SURFACE... WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE
OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL S/W
DISTURBANCE... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING/EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND. THUS... AT
THIS TIME... WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW... SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE... GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT
WILL GENERALLY BE MEAN RIDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THIS TIME (WITH THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES/WEAK CLOSED LOWS).
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO POSSIBLY SLIGHT
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...

DAMPENING MID-LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
AFTERNOON. DEEP INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z MONDAY...
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO LIFR TO IFR AS SHOWERS/RAIN OVERSPREAD THE
AREA. AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE GREATEST AND MORE PROLONGED
AT EASTERN TERMINALS WHERE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS STRONGEST.

AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COULD
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EASTERN TERMINALS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING ON TUESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 310751
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
350 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...

DAMPENING MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED ENHANCED 850-700MB SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DIRECT
A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE(PWATS OF 2.0-2.25)NORTHWARD INTO
EASTERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...THAT WILL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIALLY DRIVEN BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH DYNAMICS AND ENHANCED MID/UPPER
LEVEL WIND FIELDS...BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT WILL PROGRESS STEADILY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT
AND SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY
MIDDAY...BEST FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT ALONG THE COAST AND
PERHAPS JUST OFFSHORE...INVOF OF A WEAK INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH AND
EXITING TROPICAL PLUME. WHILE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERED DIURNAL HEATING AND
RESULTING MODERATE BUOYANCY WITHIN THE LINGERING MOIST ~2.0" PWAT
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NC WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PRECIP COVERAGE AND HOW THE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER EVOLVES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY COULD RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...

A WEAK/NONDESCRIPT SFC PATTERN WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC RETROGRADES WESTWARD.
OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING ATOP A SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS...
FORCING MECHANISM IS LACKING WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION AT
BEST.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT TRACKING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK TO ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WRT WHAT HAPPENS TO IT. THE LATEST ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE S/W SHIFTING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON... WITH BRIEF S/W RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA BEFORE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...
THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER MOVING THE INITIAL S/W DISTURBANCE THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY... LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE S/W IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO A MID LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AS A STRONG 595 DECAMETER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THIS PATTERN... THE LOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACTUALLY SINKS FURTHER SOUTH AND NOT IN
THE DIRECTION OF CENTRAL. AT THE SURFACE... WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE
OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL S/W
DISTURBANCE... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING/EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND. THUS... AT
THIS TIME... WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW... SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE... GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT
WILL GENERALLY BE MEAN RIDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THIS TIME (WITH THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES/WEAK CLOSED LOWS).
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO POSSIBLY SLIGHT
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...

DAMPENING MID-LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
AFTERNOON. DEEP INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z MONDAY...
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO LIFR TO IFR AS SHOWERS/RAIN OVERSPREAD THE
AREA. AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE GREATEST AND MORE PROLONGED
AT EASTERN TERMINALS WHERE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS STRONGEST.

AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COULD
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EASTERN TERMINALS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING ON TUESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 310751
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
350 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...

DAMPENING MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED ENHANCED 850-700MB SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DIRECT
A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE(PWATS OF 2.0-2.25)NORTHWARD INTO
EASTERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...THAT WILL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIALLY DRIVEN BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH DYNAMICS AND ENHANCED MID/UPPER
LEVEL WIND FIELDS...BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT WILL PROGRESS STEADILY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT
AND SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY
MIDDAY...BEST FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT ALONG THE COAST AND
PERHAPS JUST OFFSHORE...INVOF OF A WEAK INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH AND
EXITING TROPICAL PLUME. WHILE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERED DIURNAL HEATING AND
RESULTING MODERATE BUOYANCY WITHIN THE LINGERING MOIST ~2.0" PWAT
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NC WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PRECIP COVERAGE AND HOW THE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER EVOLVES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY COULD RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...

A WEAK/NONDESCRIPT SFC PATTERN WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC RETROGRADES WESTWARD.
OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING ATOP A SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS...
FORCING MECHANISM IS LACKING WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION AT
BEST.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT TRACKING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK TO ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WRT WHAT HAPPENS TO IT. THE LATEST ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE S/W SHIFTING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON... WITH BRIEF S/W RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA BEFORE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...
THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER MOVING THE INITIAL S/W DISTURBANCE THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY... LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE S/W IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO A MID LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AS A STRONG 595 DECAMETER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THIS PATTERN... THE LOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACTUALLY SINKS FURTHER SOUTH AND NOT IN
THE DIRECTION OF CENTRAL. AT THE SURFACE... WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE
OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL S/W
DISTURBANCE... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING/EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND. THUS... AT
THIS TIME... WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW... SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE... GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT
WILL GENERALLY BE MEAN RIDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THIS TIME (WITH THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES/WEAK CLOSED LOWS).
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO POSSIBLY SLIGHT
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...

DAMPENING MID-LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
AFTERNOON. DEEP INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z MONDAY...
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO LIFR TO IFR AS SHOWERS/RAIN OVERSPREAD THE
AREA. AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE GREATEST AND MORE PROLONGED
AT EASTERN TERMINALS WHERE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS STRONGEST.

AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COULD
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EASTERN TERMINALS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING ON TUESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 310751
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
350 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...

DAMPENING MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED ENHANCED 850-700MB SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DIRECT
A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE(PWATS OF 2.0-2.25)NORTHWARD INTO
EASTERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...THAT WILL EVENTUALLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

INITIALLY DRIVEN BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH DYNAMICS AND ENHANCED MID/UPPER
LEVEL WIND FIELDS...BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT WILL PROGRESS STEADILY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT
AND SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BY
MIDDAY...BEST FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT ALONG THE COAST AND
PERHAPS JUST OFFSHORE...INVOF OF A WEAK INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH AND
EXITING TROPICAL PLUME. WHILE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERED DIURNAL HEATING AND
RESULTING MODERATE BUOYANCY WITHIN THE LINGERING MOIST ~2.0" PWAT
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NC WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PRECIP COVERAGE AND HOW THE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER EVOLVES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS TODAY COULD RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...

A WEAK/NONDESCRIPT SFC PATTERN WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC RETROGRADES WESTWARD.
OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING ATOP A SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS...
FORCING MECHANISM IS LACKING WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION AT
BEST.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT TRACKING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK TO ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WRT WHAT HAPPENS TO IT. THE LATEST ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE S/W SHIFTING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON... WITH BRIEF S/W RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA BEFORE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...
THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER MOVING THE INITIAL S/W DISTURBANCE THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY... LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE S/W IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO A MID LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AS A STRONG 595 DECAMETER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THIS PATTERN... THE LOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACTUALLY SINKS FURTHER SOUTH AND NOT IN
THE DIRECTION OF CENTRAL. AT THE SURFACE... WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE
OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL S/W
DISTURBANCE... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING/EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND. THUS... AT
THIS TIME... WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW... SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE... GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT
WILL GENERALLY BE MEAN RIDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THIS TIME (WITH THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES/WEAK CLOSED LOWS).
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO POSSIBLY SLIGHT
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...

DAMPENING MID-LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
AFTERNOON. DEEP INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z MONDAY...
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO LIFR TO IFR AS SHOWERS/RAIN OVERSPREAD THE
AREA. AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE GREATEST AND MORE PROLONGED
AT EASTERN TERMINALS WHERE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS STRONGEST.

AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COULD
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EASTERN TERMINALS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING ON TUESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 310713
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
313 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 PM SUNDAY...

LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT HAVE HAD A HARD TIME MAKING IT MUCH FARTHER INTO
CENTRAL NC. MODEL FORECASTS STILL SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING
NE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...THUS EXPECT
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN LIKELY
ACROSS THE WEST...AND CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POINTS EAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER MONDAY...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY... AS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE... AND WILL
SUPPORT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWER
THREAT SHOULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT... AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT TRACKING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK TO ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WRT WHAT HAPPENS TO IT. THE LATEST ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE S/W SHIFTING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON... WITH BRIEF S/W RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA BEFORE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...
THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER MOVING THE INITIAL S/W DISTURBANCE THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY... LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE S/W IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO A MID LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AS A STRONG 595 DECAMETER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THIS PATTERN... THE LOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACTUALLY SINKS FURTHER SOUTH AND NOT IN
THE DIRECTION OF CENTRAL. AT THE SURFACE... WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE
OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL S/W
DISTURBANCE... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING/EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND. THUS... AT
THIS TIME... WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW... SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE... GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT
WILL GENERALLY BE MEAN RIDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THIS TIME (WITH THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES/WEAK CLOSED LOWS).
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO POSSIBLY SLIGHT
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...

DAMPENING MID-LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
AFTERNOON. DEEP INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z MONDAY...
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO LIFR TO IFR AS SHOWERS/RAIN OVERSPREAD THE
AREA. AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE GREATEST AND MORE PROLONGED
AT EASTERN TERMINALS WHERE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS STRONGEST.

AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COULD
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EASTERN TERMINALS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING ON TUESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 310546
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 PM SUNDAY...

LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT HAVE HAD A HARD TIME MAKING IT MUCH FARTHER INTO
CENTRAL NC. MODEL FORECASTS STILL SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING
NE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...THUS EXPECT
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN LIKELY
ACROSS THE WEST...AND CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POINTS EAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER MONDAY...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY... AS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE... AND WILL
SUPPORT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWER
THREAT SHOULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT... AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH (EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST) WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...WHILE A
NORTHERN PORTION WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK (POSSIBLY BECOMING CUT OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST). ALTHOUGH MANY OF THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...DESPITE
WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING (ASIDE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ANY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT)...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SCATTERED (MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...

DAMPENING MID-LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
AFTERNOON. DEEP INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z MONDAY...
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO LIFR TO IFR AS SHOWERS/RAIN OVERSPREAD THE
AREA. AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE GREATEST AND MORE PROLONGED
AT EASTERN TERMINALS WHERE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS STRONGEST.

AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COULD
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EASTERN TERMINALS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING ON TUESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 310546
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 PM SUNDAY...

LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT HAVE HAD A HARD TIME MAKING IT MUCH FARTHER INTO
CENTRAL NC. MODEL FORECASTS STILL SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING
NE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...THUS EXPECT
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN LIKELY
ACROSS THE WEST...AND CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POINTS EAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER MONDAY...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY... AS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE... AND WILL
SUPPORT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWER
THREAT SHOULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT... AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH (EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST) WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...WHILE A
NORTHERN PORTION WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK (POSSIBLY BECOMING CUT OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST). ALTHOUGH MANY OF THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...DESPITE
WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING (ASIDE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ANY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT)...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SCATTERED (MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...

DAMPENING MID-LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
AFTERNOON. DEEP INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z MONDAY...
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO LIFR TO IFR AS SHOWERS/RAIN OVERSPREAD THE
AREA. AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE GREATEST AND MORE PROLONGED
AT EASTERN TERMINALS WHERE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS STRONGEST.

AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COULD
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EASTERN TERMINALS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING ON TUESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 310546
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 PM SUNDAY...

LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT HAVE HAD A HARD TIME MAKING IT MUCH FARTHER INTO
CENTRAL NC. MODEL FORECASTS STILL SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING
NE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...THUS EXPECT
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN LIKELY
ACROSS THE WEST...AND CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POINTS EAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER MONDAY...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY... AS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE... AND WILL
SUPPORT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWER
THREAT SHOULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT... AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH (EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST) WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...WHILE A
NORTHERN PORTION WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK (POSSIBLY BECOMING CUT OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST). ALTHOUGH MANY OF THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...DESPITE
WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING (ASIDE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ANY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT)...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SCATTERED (MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...

DAMPENING MID-LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
AFTERNOON. DEEP INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z MONDAY...
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO LIFR TO IFR AS SHOWERS/RAIN OVERSPREAD THE
AREA. AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE GREATEST AND MORE PROLONGED
AT EASTERN TERMINALS WHERE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS STRONGEST.

AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COULD
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EASTERN TERMINALS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING ON TUESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 310546
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 PM SUNDAY...

LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT HAVE HAD A HARD TIME MAKING IT MUCH FARTHER INTO
CENTRAL NC. MODEL FORECASTS STILL SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING
NE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...THUS EXPECT
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN LIKELY
ACROSS THE WEST...AND CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POINTS EAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER MONDAY...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY... AS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE... AND WILL
SUPPORT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWER
THREAT SHOULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT... AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH (EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST) WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...WHILE A
NORTHERN PORTION WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK (POSSIBLY BECOMING CUT OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST). ALTHOUGH MANY OF THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...DESPITE
WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING (ASIDE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ANY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT)...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SCATTERED (MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...

DAMPENING MID-LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
AFTERNOON. DEEP INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z MONDAY...
WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO LIFR TO IFR AS SHOWERS/RAIN OVERSPREAD THE
AREA. AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE GREATEST AND MORE PROLONGED
AT EASTERN TERMINALS WHERE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS STRONGEST.

AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COULD
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EASTERN TERMINALS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING ON TUESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 310238
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1038 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 PM SUNDAY...

LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT HAVE HAD A HARD TIME MAKING IT MUCH FARTHER INTO
CENTRAL NC. MODEL FORECASTS STILL SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING
NE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...THUS EXPECT
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN LIKELY
ACROSS THE WEST...AND CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POINTS EAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER MONDAY...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY... AS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE... AND WILL
SUPPORT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWER
THREAT SHOULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT... AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH (EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST) WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...WHILE A
NORTHERN PORTION WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK (POSSIBLY BECOMING CUT OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST). ALTHOUGH MANY OF THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...DESPITE
WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING (ASIDE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ANY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT)...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SCATTERED (MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN GA WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AN INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD FLOW INTO
AT LEAST THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR REGION (KFAY/KRDU/KRWI)
BRINGING LIFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND FOG LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS AWAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON... CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR BY LATE IN THE
DAY. TO THE WEST... CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE RAIN FORECAST AS MUCH
OF THE DEEP MOISTURE MAY STAY TO THE EAST OF KINT/KGSO. HOWEVER...
THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN
09Z-15Z BEFORE LIFTING DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... ANOTHER CHANCE OF
ADVERSE AVIATION CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AND FOG WILL ARRIVE WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE S-SW. HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS EXIST IN THE EAST FROM KRDU TO KFAY AND KRWI EASTWARD.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...BADGETT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 310238
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1038 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 PM SUNDAY...

LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT HAVE HAD A HARD TIME MAKING IT MUCH FARTHER INTO
CENTRAL NC. MODEL FORECASTS STILL SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDING
NE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...THUS EXPECT
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN LIKELY
ACROSS THE WEST...AND CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POINTS EAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER MONDAY...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY... AS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE... AND WILL
SUPPORT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWER
THREAT SHOULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT... AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH (EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST) WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...WHILE A
NORTHERN PORTION WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK (POSSIBLY BECOMING CUT OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST). ALTHOUGH MANY OF THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...DESPITE
WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING (ASIDE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ANY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT)...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SCATTERED (MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN GA WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AN INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD FLOW INTO
AT LEAST THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR REGION (KFAY/KRDU/KRWI)
BRINGING LIFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND FOG LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS AWAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON... CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR BY LATE IN THE
DAY. TO THE WEST... CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE RAIN FORECAST AS MUCH
OF THE DEEP MOISTURE MAY STAY TO THE EAST OF KINT/KGSO. HOWEVER...
THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN
09Z-15Z BEFORE LIFTING DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... ANOTHER CHANCE OF
ADVERSE AVIATION CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AND FOG WILL ARRIVE WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE S-SW. HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS EXIST IN THE EAST FROM KRDU TO KFAY AND KRWI EASTWARD.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 302326
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
720 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 323 PM SUNDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN PLAYER IN OUR
WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM... CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
GA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM... HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN AREA... WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE PART OF THE STATE. SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS PWS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA... WITH
2 INCHES PUSHING WELL INTO SC.  ALONG WITH THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE....
SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING THE NC SC BORDER. HAVE BROUGHT LIKELY POPS
TO THE COUNTIES NEAR THE SC BORDER AFTER 20Z.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE. WITH THE MAIN MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING NOT REACHING THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z... BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY... AS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE... AND WILL
SUPPORT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWER
THREAT SHOULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT... AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH (EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST) WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...WHILE A
NORTHERN PORTION WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK (POSSIBLY BECOMING CUT OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST). ALTHOUGH MANY OF THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...DESPITE
WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING (ASIDE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ANY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT)...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SCATTERED (MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN GA WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AN INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD FLOW INTO
AT LEAST THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR REGION (KFAY/KRDU/KRWI)
BRINGING LIFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND FOG LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS AWAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON... CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR BY LATE IN THE
DAY. TO THE WEST... CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE RAIN FORECAST AS MUCH
OF THE DEEP MOISTURE MAY STAY TO THE EAST OF KINT/KGSO. HOWEVER...
THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN
09Z-15Z BEFORE LIFTING DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... ANOTHER CHANCE OF
ADVERSE AVIATION CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AND FOG WILL ARRIVE WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE S-SW. HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS EXIST IN THE EAST FROM KRDU TO KFAY AND KRWI EASTWARD.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...BADGETT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 302326
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
720 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 323 PM SUNDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN PLAYER IN OUR
WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM... CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
GA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM... HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN AREA... WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE PART OF THE STATE. SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS PWS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA... WITH
2 INCHES PUSHING WELL INTO SC.  ALONG WITH THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE....
SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING THE NC SC BORDER. HAVE BROUGHT LIKELY POPS
TO THE COUNTIES NEAR THE SC BORDER AFTER 20Z.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE. WITH THE MAIN MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING NOT REACHING THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z... BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY... AS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE... AND WILL
SUPPORT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWER
THREAT SHOULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT... AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH (EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST) WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...WHILE A
NORTHERN PORTION WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK (POSSIBLY BECOMING CUT OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST). ALTHOUGH MANY OF THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...DESPITE
WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING (ASIDE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ANY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT)...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SCATTERED (MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN GA WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AN INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD FLOW INTO
AT LEAST THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR REGION (KFAY/KRDU/KRWI)
BRINGING LIFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND FOG LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS AWAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON... CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR BY LATE IN THE
DAY. TO THE WEST... CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE RAIN FORECAST AS MUCH
OF THE DEEP MOISTURE MAY STAY TO THE EAST OF KINT/KGSO. HOWEVER...
THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN
09Z-15Z BEFORE LIFTING DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... ANOTHER CHANCE OF
ADVERSE AVIATION CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AND FOG WILL ARRIVE WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE S-SW. HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS EXIST IN THE EAST FROM KRDU TO KFAY AND KRWI EASTWARD.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...BADGETT





000
FXUS62 KRAH 302326
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
720 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 323 PM SUNDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN PLAYER IN OUR
WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM... CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
GA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM... HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN AREA... WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE PART OF THE STATE. SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS PWS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA... WITH
2 INCHES PUSHING WELL INTO SC.  ALONG WITH THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE....
SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING THE NC SC BORDER. HAVE BROUGHT LIKELY POPS
TO THE COUNTIES NEAR THE SC BORDER AFTER 20Z.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE. WITH THE MAIN MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING NOT REACHING THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z... BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY... AS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE... AND WILL
SUPPORT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWER
THREAT SHOULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT... AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH (EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST) WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...WHILE A
NORTHERN PORTION WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK (POSSIBLY BECOMING CUT OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST). ALTHOUGH MANY OF THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...DESPITE
WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING (ASIDE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ANY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT)...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SCATTERED (MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN GA WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AN INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD FLOW INTO
AT LEAST THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR REGION (KFAY/KRDU/KRWI)
BRINGING LIFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND FOG LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS AWAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON... CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR BY LATE IN THE
DAY. TO THE WEST... CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE RAIN FORECAST AS MUCH
OF THE DEEP MOISTURE MAY STAY TO THE EAST OF KINT/KGSO. HOWEVER...
THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN
09Z-15Z BEFORE LIFTING DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... ANOTHER CHANCE OF
ADVERSE AVIATION CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AND FOG WILL ARRIVE WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE S-SW. HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS EXIST IN THE EAST FROM KRDU TO KFAY AND KRWI EASTWARD.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 302326
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
720 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 323 PM SUNDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN PLAYER IN OUR
WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM... CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
GA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM... HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN AREA... WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE PART OF THE STATE. SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS PWS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA... WITH
2 INCHES PUSHING WELL INTO SC.  ALONG WITH THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE....
SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING THE NC SC BORDER. HAVE BROUGHT LIKELY POPS
TO THE COUNTIES NEAR THE SC BORDER AFTER 20Z.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE. WITH THE MAIN MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING NOT REACHING THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z... BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY... AS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE... AND WILL
SUPPORT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWER
THREAT SHOULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT... AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH (EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST) WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...WHILE A
NORTHERN PORTION WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK (POSSIBLY BECOMING CUT OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST). ALTHOUGH MANY OF THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...DESPITE
WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING (ASIDE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ANY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT)...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SCATTERED (MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM SUNDAY...

THE MID/UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN GA WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AN INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD FLOW INTO
AT LEAST THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR REGION (KFAY/KRDU/KRWI)
BRINGING LIFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND FOG LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS AWAY MONDAY
AFTERNOON... CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR BY LATE IN THE
DAY. TO THE WEST... CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE RAIN FORECAST AS MUCH
OF THE DEEP MOISTURE MAY STAY TO THE EAST OF KINT/KGSO. HOWEVER...
THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS BETWEEN
09Z-15Z BEFORE LIFTING DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... ANOTHER CHANCE OF
ADVERSE AVIATION CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHOWERS AND FOG WILL ARRIVE WITH
THE NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE S-SW. HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS EXIST IN THE EAST FROM KRDU TO KFAY AND KRWI EASTWARD.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...BADGETT




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301926
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
326 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 323 PM SUNDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN PLAYER IN OUR
WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM... CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
GA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM... HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN AREA... WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE PART OF THE STATE. SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS PWS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA... WITH
2 INCHES PUSHING WELL INTO SC.  ALONG WITH THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE....
SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING THE NC SC BORDER. HAVE BROUGHT LIKELY POPS
TO THE COUNTIES NEAR THE SC BORDER AFTER 20Z.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE. WITH THE MAIN MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING NOT REACHING THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z... BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY... AS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE... AND WILL
SUPPORT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWER
THREAT SHOULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT... AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH (EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST) WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...WHILE A
NORTHERN PORTION WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK (POSSIBLY BECOMING CUT OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST). ALTHOUGH MANY OF THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...DESPITE
WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING (ASIDE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ANY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT)...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SCATTERED (MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS... WITH INCREASING HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS... WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KRDU... KRWI... AND KFAY WHERE
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEK... WITH
PRIMARILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301926
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
326 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 323 PM SUNDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN PLAYER IN OUR
WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM... CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
GA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM... HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN AREA... WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE PART OF THE STATE. SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS PWS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA... WITH
2 INCHES PUSHING WELL INTO SC.  ALONG WITH THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE....
SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING THE NC SC BORDER. HAVE BROUGHT LIKELY POPS
TO THE COUNTIES NEAR THE SC BORDER AFTER 20Z.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE. WITH THE MAIN MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING NOT REACHING THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z... BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY... AS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE... AND WILL
SUPPORT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWER
THREAT SHOULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT... AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH (EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST) WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...WHILE A
NORTHERN PORTION WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK (POSSIBLY BECOMING CUT OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST). ALTHOUGH MANY OF THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...DESPITE
WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING (ASIDE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ANY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT)...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SCATTERED (MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS... WITH INCREASING HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS... WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KRDU... KRWI... AND KFAY WHERE
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEK... WITH
PRIMARILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...30





000
FXUS62 KRAH 301926
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
326 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 323 PM SUNDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN PLAYER IN OUR
WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM... CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
GA. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM... HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERTAKEN AREA... WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE PART OF THE STATE. SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS PWS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA... WITH
2 INCHES PUSHING WELL INTO SC.  ALONG WITH THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE....
SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING THE NC SC BORDER. HAVE BROUGHT LIKELY POPS
TO THE COUNTIES NEAR THE SC BORDER AFTER 20Z.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE. WITH THE MAIN MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING NOT REACHING THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z... BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LIFT OUT MONDAY... AS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE... AND WILL
SUPPORT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWER
THREAT SHOULD BRIEFLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT... AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE DAY... AND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH (EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST) WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...WHILE A
NORTHERN PORTION WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK (POSSIBLY BECOMING CUT OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST). ALTHOUGH MANY OF THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...DESPITE
WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING (ASIDE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ANY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT)...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SCATTERED (MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS... WITH INCREASING HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS... WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KRDU... KRWI... AND KFAY WHERE
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEK... WITH
PRIMARILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...30





000
FXUS62 KRAH 301905
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL CROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1018 AM SUNDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM... CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE OF FL. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM... HIGH
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GSO SOUNDING
INDICATES GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN FROM 00Z LAST NIGHT...
AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON... LEADING TO PWS OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THE NW
AND NEAR 2 INCHES SE. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S... TO UPPER 80S IN THE NW
WHERE A FEW MORE HOURS OF SUNSHINE ARE LIKELY BEFORE CLOUDS
COMPLETELY OVERTAKE THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE. WITH THE MAIN MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING NOT REACHING THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z... BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT....THOUGH COULD SEE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
NEARING THE SC/NC BORDER AFTER 18Z. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING
AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAMPENED MID-
LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER FORCING
LOOKS TO BE WANING/EXITING THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERED
DIURNAL HEATING WITHIN THE LINGERING MOIST ~2.0" PWAT AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NC MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME THUNDER AS WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
DEVELOPS(MUCAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG). WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGES...HIGHEST IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING AS BOTH UPPER FORCING AND MOIST
PLUME SHIFT OFFSHORE.

HIGHS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PRECIP COVERAGE...RANGING FROM LOWER
80S IN WETTER MODEL SOLUTIONS TO MID/UPPER 80S WHERE SHOWERS ARE
SCARCE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH (EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST) WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...WHILE A
NORTHERN PORTION WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK (POSSIBLY BECOMING CUT OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST). ALTHOUGH MANY OF THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...DESPITE
WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING (ASIDE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ANY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT)...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SCATTERED (MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS... WITH INCREASING HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS... WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KRDU... KRWI... AND KFAY WHERE
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEK... WITH
PRIMARILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301905
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL CROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1018 AM SUNDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM... CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE OF FL. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM... HIGH
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GSO SOUNDING
INDICATES GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN FROM 00Z LAST NIGHT...
AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON... LEADING TO PWS OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THE NW
AND NEAR 2 INCHES SE. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S... TO UPPER 80S IN THE NW
WHERE A FEW MORE HOURS OF SUNSHINE ARE LIKELY BEFORE CLOUDS
COMPLETELY OVERTAKE THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE. WITH THE MAIN MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING NOT REACHING THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z... BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT....THOUGH COULD SEE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
NEARING THE SC/NC BORDER AFTER 18Z. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING
AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAMPENED MID-
LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER FORCING
LOOKS TO BE WANING/EXITING THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERED
DIURNAL HEATING WITHIN THE LINGERING MOIST ~2.0" PWAT AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NC MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME THUNDER AS WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
DEVELOPS(MUCAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG). WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGES...HIGHEST IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING AS BOTH UPPER FORCING AND MOIST
PLUME SHIFT OFFSHORE.

HIGHS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PRECIP COVERAGE...RANGING FROM LOWER
80S IN WETTER MODEL SOLUTIONS TO MID/UPPER 80S WHERE SHOWERS ARE
SCARCE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH (EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST) WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...WHILE A
NORTHERN PORTION WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK (POSSIBLY BECOMING CUT OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST). ALTHOUGH MANY OF THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...DESPITE
WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING (ASIDE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ANY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT)...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SCATTERED (MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS... WITH INCREASING HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS... WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KRDU... KRWI... AND KFAY WHERE
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEK... WITH
PRIMARILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...30





000
FXUS62 KRAH 301905
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL CROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1018 AM SUNDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM... CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE OF FL. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM... HIGH
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GSO SOUNDING
INDICATES GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN FROM 00Z LAST NIGHT...
AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON... LEADING TO PWS OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THE NW
AND NEAR 2 INCHES SE. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S... TO UPPER 80S IN THE NW
WHERE A FEW MORE HOURS OF SUNSHINE ARE LIKELY BEFORE CLOUDS
COMPLETELY OVERTAKE THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE. WITH THE MAIN MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING NOT REACHING THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z... BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT....THOUGH COULD SEE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
NEARING THE SC/NC BORDER AFTER 18Z. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING
AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAMPENED MID-
LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER FORCING
LOOKS TO BE WANING/EXITING THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERED
DIURNAL HEATING WITHIN THE LINGERING MOIST ~2.0" PWAT AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NC MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME THUNDER AS WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
DEVELOPS(MUCAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG). WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGES...HIGHEST IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING AS BOTH UPPER FORCING AND MOIST
PLUME SHIFT OFFSHORE.

HIGHS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PRECIP COVERAGE...RANGING FROM LOWER
80S IN WETTER MODEL SOLUTIONS TO MID/UPPER 80S WHERE SHOWERS ARE
SCARCE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH (EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST) WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...WHILE A
NORTHERN PORTION WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK (POSSIBLY BECOMING CUT OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST). ALTHOUGH MANY OF THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...DESPITE
WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING (ASIDE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ANY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT)...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SCATTERED (MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS... WITH INCREASING HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS... WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KRDU... KRWI... AND KFAY WHERE
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEK... WITH
PRIMARILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301905
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL CROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1018 AM SUNDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM... CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE OF FL. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM... HIGH
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GSO SOUNDING
INDICATES GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN FROM 00Z LAST NIGHT...
AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON... LEADING TO PWS OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THE NW
AND NEAR 2 INCHES SE. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S... TO UPPER 80S IN THE NW
WHERE A FEW MORE HOURS OF SUNSHINE ARE LIKELY BEFORE CLOUDS
COMPLETELY OVERTAKE THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE. WITH THE MAIN MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING NOT REACHING THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z... BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT....THOUGH COULD SEE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
NEARING THE SC/NC BORDER AFTER 18Z. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING
AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAMPENED MID-
LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER FORCING
LOOKS TO BE WANING/EXITING THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERED
DIURNAL HEATING WITHIN THE LINGERING MOIST ~2.0" PWAT AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NC MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME THUNDER AS WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
DEVELOPS(MUCAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG). WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGES...HIGHEST IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING AS BOTH UPPER FORCING AND MOIST
PLUME SHIFT OFFSHORE.

HIGHS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PRECIP COVERAGE...RANGING FROM LOWER
80S IN WETTER MODEL SOLUTIONS TO MID/UPPER 80S WHERE SHOWERS ARE
SCARCE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...

RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH (EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST) WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH WILL BECOME CLOSED OFF NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...WHILE A
NORTHERN PORTION WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK (POSSIBLY BECOMING CUT OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST). ALTHOUGH MANY OF THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...DESPITE
WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING (ASIDE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ANY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT)...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR
SCATTERED (MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. TEMPS WILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS... WITH INCREASING HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS... WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KRDU... KRWI... AND KFAY WHERE
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEK... WITH
PRIMARILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...30





000
FXUS62 KRAH 301755
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
154 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL CROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1018 AM SUNDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM... CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE OF FL. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM... HIGH
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GSO SOUNDING
INDICATES GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN FROM 00Z LAST NIGHT...
AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON... LEADING TO PWS OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THE NW
AND NEAR 2 INCHES SE. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S... TO UPPER 80S IN THE NW
WHERE A FEW MORE HOURS OF SUNSHINE ARE LIKELY BEFORE CLOUDS
COMPLETELY OVERTAKE THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE. WITH THE MAIN MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING NOT REACHING THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z... BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT....THOUGH COULD SEE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
NEARING THE SC/NC BORDER AFTER 18Z. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING
AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAMPENED MID-
LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER FORCING
LOOKS TO BE WANING/EXITING THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERED
DIURNAL HEATING WITHIN THE LINGERING MOIST ~2.0" PWAT AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NC MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME THUNDER AS WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
DEVELOPS(MUCAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG). WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGES...HIGHEST IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING AS BOTH UPPER FORCING AND MOIST
PLUME SHIFT OFFSHORE.

HIGHS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PRECIP COVERAGE...RANGING FROM LOWER
80S IN WETTER MODEL SOLUTIONS TO MID/UPPER 80S WHERE SHOWERS ARE
SCARCE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...

THE MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE RE-
DEVELOPMENT/DISCONTINUOUS RETROGRESSION OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE TX GULF COAST...THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WED AND VA/NC WED NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH --FORECAST TO BECOME A CLOSED ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST--
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AND ULTIMATELY MAY GET TRAPPED BENEATH AN
AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR...HOWEVER...IF
THE CLOSED LOW WILL INDEED GET TRAPPED BENEATH IN REX BLOCK FASHION
OR INSTEAD BECOME INCORPORATED INTO A SEPARATE CLOSED LOW FORECAST
TO EVOLVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST - A PROCESS STARTED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS NC
WED NIGHT.

BEFOREHAND...A LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR/TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH AND CROSS NC IN SW FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE NEAR TERM; AND THIS FEATURE WILL BISECT CENTRAL NC
FROM NE TO SW AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH
WED...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO EMERGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE
WED-WED NIGHT.

WHILE THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MAY REGENERATE OVER THE FAR NE GOM OR FL
PANHANDLE...NOT NECESSARILY AS A TROPICAL ENTITY OWING TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE GOM UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC/BAROCLINIC
EFFECTS...ANY ASSOCIATED AFFECTS WILL STILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED
MOSTLY SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF CENTRAL NC BY THE FLOW PATTERN OUTLINED
ABOVE.

AS SUCH...AFTER AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO PROBABILITIES OF
DIURNAL PRECIPITATION TUE-WED...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AOB CLIMO POP...AS RELATIVELY DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. PROJECTED AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1420 METERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S. NEAR CLIMO
LOWS MOSTLY 65-70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS... WITH INCREASING HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS... WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KRDU... KRWI... AND KFAY WHERE
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEK... WITH
PRIMARILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301755
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
154 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL CROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1018 AM SUNDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM... CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE OF FL. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM... HIGH
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GSO SOUNDING
INDICATES GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN FROM 00Z LAST NIGHT...
AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON... LEADING TO PWS OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THE NW
AND NEAR 2 INCHES SE. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S... TO UPPER 80S IN THE NW
WHERE A FEW MORE HOURS OF SUNSHINE ARE LIKELY BEFORE CLOUDS
COMPLETELY OVERTAKE THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE. WITH THE MAIN MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING NOT REACHING THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z... BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT....THOUGH COULD SEE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
NEARING THE SC/NC BORDER AFTER 18Z. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING
AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAMPENED MID-
LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER FORCING
LOOKS TO BE WANING/EXITING THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERED
DIURNAL HEATING WITHIN THE LINGERING MOIST ~2.0" PWAT AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NC MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME THUNDER AS WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
DEVELOPS(MUCAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG). WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGES...HIGHEST IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING AS BOTH UPPER FORCING AND MOIST
PLUME SHIFT OFFSHORE.

HIGHS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PRECIP COVERAGE...RANGING FROM LOWER
80S IN WETTER MODEL SOLUTIONS TO MID/UPPER 80S WHERE SHOWERS ARE
SCARCE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...

THE MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE RE-
DEVELOPMENT/DISCONTINUOUS RETROGRESSION OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE TX GULF COAST...THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WED AND VA/NC WED NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH --FORECAST TO BECOME A CLOSED ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST--
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AND ULTIMATELY MAY GET TRAPPED BENEATH AN
AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR...HOWEVER...IF
THE CLOSED LOW WILL INDEED GET TRAPPED BENEATH IN REX BLOCK FASHION
OR INSTEAD BECOME INCORPORATED INTO A SEPARATE CLOSED LOW FORECAST
TO EVOLVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST - A PROCESS STARTED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS NC
WED NIGHT.

BEFOREHAND...A LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR/TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH AND CROSS NC IN SW FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE NEAR TERM; AND THIS FEATURE WILL BISECT CENTRAL NC
FROM NE TO SW AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH
WED...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO EMERGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE
WED-WED NIGHT.

WHILE THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MAY REGENERATE OVER THE FAR NE GOM OR FL
PANHANDLE...NOT NECESSARILY AS A TROPICAL ENTITY OWING TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE GOM UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC/BAROCLINIC
EFFECTS...ANY ASSOCIATED AFFECTS WILL STILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED
MOSTLY SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF CENTRAL NC BY THE FLOW PATTERN OUTLINED
ABOVE.

AS SUCH...AFTER AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO PROBABILITIES OF
DIURNAL PRECIPITATION TUE-WED...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AOB CLIMO POP...AS RELATIVELY DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. PROJECTED AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1420 METERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S. NEAR CLIMO
LOWS MOSTLY 65-70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS... WITH INCREASING HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS... WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KRDU... KRWI... AND KFAY WHERE
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEK... WITH
PRIMARILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30





000
FXUS62 KRAH 301755
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
154 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL CROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1018 AM SUNDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM... CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE OF FL. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM... HIGH
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GSO SOUNDING
INDICATES GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN FROM 00Z LAST NIGHT...
AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON... LEADING TO PWS OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THE NW
AND NEAR 2 INCHES SE. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S... TO UPPER 80S IN THE NW
WHERE A FEW MORE HOURS OF SUNSHINE ARE LIKELY BEFORE CLOUDS
COMPLETELY OVERTAKE THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE. WITH THE MAIN MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING NOT REACHING THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z... BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT....THOUGH COULD SEE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
NEARING THE SC/NC BORDER AFTER 18Z. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING
AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAMPENED MID-
LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER FORCING
LOOKS TO BE WANING/EXITING THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERED
DIURNAL HEATING WITHIN THE LINGERING MOIST ~2.0" PWAT AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NC MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME THUNDER AS WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
DEVELOPS(MUCAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG). WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGES...HIGHEST IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING AS BOTH UPPER FORCING AND MOIST
PLUME SHIFT OFFSHORE.

HIGHS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PRECIP COVERAGE...RANGING FROM LOWER
80S IN WETTER MODEL SOLUTIONS TO MID/UPPER 80S WHERE SHOWERS ARE
SCARCE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...

THE MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE RE-
DEVELOPMENT/DISCONTINUOUS RETROGRESSION OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE TX GULF COAST...THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WED AND VA/NC WED NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH --FORECAST TO BECOME A CLOSED ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST--
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AND ULTIMATELY MAY GET TRAPPED BENEATH AN
AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR...HOWEVER...IF
THE CLOSED LOW WILL INDEED GET TRAPPED BENEATH IN REX BLOCK FASHION
OR INSTEAD BECOME INCORPORATED INTO A SEPARATE CLOSED LOW FORECAST
TO EVOLVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST - A PROCESS STARTED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS NC
WED NIGHT.

BEFOREHAND...A LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR/TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH AND CROSS NC IN SW FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE NEAR TERM; AND THIS FEATURE WILL BISECT CENTRAL NC
FROM NE TO SW AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH
WED...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO EMERGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE
WED-WED NIGHT.

WHILE THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MAY REGENERATE OVER THE FAR NE GOM OR FL
PANHANDLE...NOT NECESSARILY AS A TROPICAL ENTITY OWING TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE GOM UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC/BAROCLINIC
EFFECTS...ANY ASSOCIATED AFFECTS WILL STILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED
MOSTLY SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF CENTRAL NC BY THE FLOW PATTERN OUTLINED
ABOVE.

AS SUCH...AFTER AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO PROBABILITIES OF
DIURNAL PRECIPITATION TUE-WED...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AOB CLIMO POP...AS RELATIVELY DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. PROJECTED AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1420 METERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S. NEAR CLIMO
LOWS MOSTLY 65-70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS... WITH INCREASING HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS... WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KRDU... KRWI... AND KFAY WHERE
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEK... WITH
PRIMARILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301755
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
154 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL CROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1018 AM SUNDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM... CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE OF FL. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM... HIGH
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GSO SOUNDING
INDICATES GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN FROM 00Z LAST NIGHT...
AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON... LEADING TO PWS OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THE NW
AND NEAR 2 INCHES SE. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S... TO UPPER 80S IN THE NW
WHERE A FEW MORE HOURS OF SUNSHINE ARE LIKELY BEFORE CLOUDS
COMPLETELY OVERTAKE THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE. WITH THE MAIN MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING NOT REACHING THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z... BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT....THOUGH COULD SEE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
NEARING THE SC/NC BORDER AFTER 18Z. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING
AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAMPENED MID-
LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER FORCING
LOOKS TO BE WANING/EXITING THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERED
DIURNAL HEATING WITHIN THE LINGERING MOIST ~2.0" PWAT AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NC MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME THUNDER AS WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
DEVELOPS(MUCAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG). WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGES...HIGHEST IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING AS BOTH UPPER FORCING AND MOIST
PLUME SHIFT OFFSHORE.

HIGHS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PRECIP COVERAGE...RANGING FROM LOWER
80S IN WETTER MODEL SOLUTIONS TO MID/UPPER 80S WHERE SHOWERS ARE
SCARCE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...

THE MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE RE-
DEVELOPMENT/DISCONTINUOUS RETROGRESSION OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE TX GULF COAST...THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WED AND VA/NC WED NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH --FORECAST TO BECOME A CLOSED ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST--
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AND ULTIMATELY MAY GET TRAPPED BENEATH AN
AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR...HOWEVER...IF
THE CLOSED LOW WILL INDEED GET TRAPPED BENEATH IN REX BLOCK FASHION
OR INSTEAD BECOME INCORPORATED INTO A SEPARATE CLOSED LOW FORECAST
TO EVOLVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST - A PROCESS STARTED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS NC
WED NIGHT.

BEFOREHAND...A LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR/TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH AND CROSS NC IN SW FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE NEAR TERM; AND THIS FEATURE WILL BISECT CENTRAL NC
FROM NE TO SW AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH
WED...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO EMERGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE
WED-WED NIGHT.

WHILE THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MAY REGENERATE OVER THE FAR NE GOM OR FL
PANHANDLE...NOT NECESSARILY AS A TROPICAL ENTITY OWING TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE GOM UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC/BAROCLINIC
EFFECTS...ANY ASSOCIATED AFFECTS WILL STILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED
MOSTLY SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF CENTRAL NC BY THE FLOW PATTERN OUTLINED
ABOVE.

AS SUCH...AFTER AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO PROBABILITIES OF
DIURNAL PRECIPITATION TUE-WED...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AOB CLIMO POP...AS RELATIVELY DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. PROJECTED AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1420 METERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S. NEAR CLIMO
LOWS MOSTLY 65-70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS... WITH INCREASING HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS... WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KRDU... KRWI... AND KFAY WHERE
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEK... WITH
PRIMARILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30





000
FXUS62 KRAH 301420
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1019 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL CROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1018 AM SUNDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM... CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE OF FL. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM... HIGH
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GSO SOUNDING
INDICATES GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN FROM 00Z LAST NIGHT...
AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON... LEADING TO PWS OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THE NW
AND NEAR 2 INCHES SE. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S... TO UPPER 80S IN THE NW
WHERE A FEW MORE HOURS OF SUNSHINE ARE LIKELY BEFORE CLOUDS
COMPLETELY OVERTAKE THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE. WITH THE MAIN MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING NOT REACHING THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z... BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT....THOUGH COULD SEE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
NEARING THE SC/NC BORDER AFTER 18Z. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING
AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAMPENED MID-
LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER FORCING
LOOKS TO BE WANING/EXITING THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERED
DIURNAL HEATING WITHIN THE LINGERING MOIST ~2.0" PWAT AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NC MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME THUNDER AS WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
DEVELOPS(MUCAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG). WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGES...HIGHEST IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING AS BOTH UPPER FORCING AND MOIST
PLUME SHIFT OFFSHORE.

HIGHS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PRECIP COVERAGE...RANGING FROM LOWER
80S IN WETTER MODEL SOLUTIONS TO MID/UPPER 80S WHERE SHOWERS ARE
SCARCE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...

THE MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE RE-
DEVELOPMENT/DISCONTINUOUS RETROGRESSION OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE TX GULF COAST...THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WED AND VA/NC WED NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH --FORECAST TO BECOME A CLOSED ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST--
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AND ULTIMATELY MAY GET TRAPPED BENEATH AN
AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR...HOWEVER...IF
THE CLOSED LOW WILL INDEED GET TRAPPED BENEATH IN REX BLOCK FASHION
OR INSTEAD BECOME INCORPORATED INTO A SEPARATE CLOSED LOW FORECAST
TO EVOLVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST - A PROCESS STARTED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS NC
WED NIGHT.

BEFOREHAND...A LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR/TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH AND CROSS NC IN SW FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE NEAR TERM; AND THIS FEATURE WILL BISECT CENTRAL NC
FROM NE TO SW AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH
WED...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO EMERGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE
WED-WED NIGHT.

WHILE THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MAY REGENERATE OVER THE FAR NE GOM OR FL
PANHANDLE...NOT NECESSARILY AS A TROPICAL ENTITY OWING TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE GOM UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC/BAROCLINIC
EFFECTS...ANY ASSOCIATED AFFECTS WILL STILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED
MOSTLY SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF CENTRAL NC BY THE FLOW PATTERN OUTLINED
ABOVE.

AS SUCH...AFTER AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO PROBABILITIES OF
DIURNAL PRECIPITATION TUE-WED...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AOB CLIMO POP...AS RELATIVELY DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. PROJECTED AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1420 METERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S. NEAR CLIMO
LOWS MOSTLY 65-70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AND PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING.

A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS EXPECTED
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTH BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WITHIN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...OTHERWISE.... EXPECT MOSTLY LOW END VFR
CEILINGS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THEIR
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301420
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1019 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL CROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1018 AM SUNDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM... CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE OF FL. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM... HIGH
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GSO SOUNDING
INDICATES GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN FROM 00Z LAST NIGHT...
AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON... LEADING TO PWS OVER 1.5 INCHES IN THE NW
AND NEAR 2 INCHES SE. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S... TO UPPER 80S IN THE NW
WHERE A FEW MORE HOURS OF SUNSHINE ARE LIKELY BEFORE CLOUDS
COMPLETELY OVERTAKE THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE. WITH THE MAIN MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING NOT REACHING THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z... BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT....THOUGH COULD SEE SOME WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
NEARING THE SC/NC BORDER AFTER 18Z. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING
AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAMPENED MID-
LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER FORCING
LOOKS TO BE WANING/EXITING THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERED
DIURNAL HEATING WITHIN THE LINGERING MOIST ~2.0" PWAT AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NC MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME THUNDER AS WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
DEVELOPS(MUCAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG). WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGES...HIGHEST IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING AS BOTH UPPER FORCING AND MOIST
PLUME SHIFT OFFSHORE.

HIGHS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PRECIP COVERAGE...RANGING FROM LOWER
80S IN WETTER MODEL SOLUTIONS TO MID/UPPER 80S WHERE SHOWERS ARE
SCARCE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...

THE MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE RE-
DEVELOPMENT/DISCONTINUOUS RETROGRESSION OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE TX GULF COAST...THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WED AND VA/NC WED NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH --FORECAST TO BECOME A CLOSED ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST--
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AND ULTIMATELY MAY GET TRAPPED BENEATH AN
AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR...HOWEVER...IF
THE CLOSED LOW WILL INDEED GET TRAPPED BENEATH IN REX BLOCK FASHION
OR INSTEAD BECOME INCORPORATED INTO A SEPARATE CLOSED LOW FORECAST
TO EVOLVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST - A PROCESS STARTED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS NC
WED NIGHT.

BEFOREHAND...A LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR/TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH AND CROSS NC IN SW FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE NEAR TERM; AND THIS FEATURE WILL BISECT CENTRAL NC
FROM NE TO SW AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH
WED...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO EMERGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE
WED-WED NIGHT.

WHILE THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MAY REGENERATE OVER THE FAR NE GOM OR FL
PANHANDLE...NOT NECESSARILY AS A TROPICAL ENTITY OWING TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE GOM UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC/BAROCLINIC
EFFECTS...ANY ASSOCIATED AFFECTS WILL STILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED
MOSTLY SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF CENTRAL NC BY THE FLOW PATTERN OUTLINED
ABOVE.

AS SUCH...AFTER AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO PROBABILITIES OF
DIURNAL PRECIPITATION TUE-WED...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AOB CLIMO POP...AS RELATIVELY DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. PROJECTED AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1420 METERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S. NEAR CLIMO
LOWS MOSTLY 65-70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AND PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING.

A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS EXPECTED
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTH BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WITHIN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...OTHERWISE.... EXPECT MOSTLY LOW END VFR
CEILINGS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THEIR
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...CBL





000
FXUS62 KRAH 301045
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL CROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...

MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CURRENTLY NEAR MOBILE BAY WILL DAMPEN
INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
GEORGIA TODAY AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK MONDAY. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL COMMENCE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH
ASSOCIATED 850-700MB SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING PLUME OF HIGH ~2.0"
PWAT(POSSIBLE REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM DANNY)INTO
EASTERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS. DRY STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL
ACT TO DETER RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE DPVA AND MOISTURE
SURGE FROM THE SOUTH. THUS TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR DIMINISHING ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR THE
SC/NC BORDER...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY AT OR JUST A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL...HELD IN CHECK BY
OPAQUE VEIL OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE EJECTING UPPER WAVE.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING
AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAMPENED MID-
LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER FORCING
LOOKS TO BE WANING/EXITING THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERED
DIURNAL HEATING WITHIN THE LINGERING MOIST ~2.0" PWAT AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NC MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME THUNDER AS WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
DEVELOPS(MUCAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG). WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGES...HIGHEST IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING AS BOTH UPPER FORCING AND MOIST
PLUME SHIFT OFFSHORE.

HIGHS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PRECIP COVERAGE...RANGING FROM LOWER
80S IN WETTER MODEL SOLUTIONS TO MID/UPPER 80S WHERE SHOWERS ARE
SCARCE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...

THE MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE RE-
DEVELOPMENT/DISCONTINUOUS RETROGRESSION OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE TX GULF COAST...THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WED AND VA/NC WED NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH --FORECAST TO BECOME A CLOSED ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST--
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AND ULTIMATELY MAY GET TRAPPED BENEATH AN
AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR...HOWEVER...IF
THE CLOSED LOW WILL INDEED GET TRAPPED BENEATH IN REX BLOCK FASHION
OR INSTEAD BECOME INCORPORATED INTO A SEPARATE CLOSED LOW FORECAST
TO EVOLVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST - A PROCESS STARTED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS NC
WED NIGHT.

BEFOREHAND...A LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR/TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH AND CROSS NC IN SW FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE NEAR TERM; AND THIS FEATURE WILL BISECT CENTRAL NC
FROM NE TO SW AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH
WED...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO EMERGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE
WED-WED NIGHT.

WHILE THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MAY REGENERATE OVER THE FAR NE GOM OR FL
PANHANDLE...NOT NECESSARILY AS A TROPICAL ENTITY OWING TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE GOM UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC/BAROCLINIC
EFFECTS...ANY ASSOCIATED AFFECTS WILL STILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED
MOSTLY SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF CENTRAL NC BY THE FLOW PATTERN OUTLINED
ABOVE.

AS SUCH...AFTER AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO PROBABILITIES OF
DIURNAL PRECIPITATION TUE-WED...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AOB CLIMO POP...AS RELATIVELY DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. PROJECTED AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1420 METERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S. NEAR CLIMO
LOWS MOSTLY 65-70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AND PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING.

A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS EXPECTED
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTH BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WITHIN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...OTHERWISE.... EXPECT MOSTLY LOW END VFR
CEILINGS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THEIR
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301045
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL CROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...

MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CURRENTLY NEAR MOBILE BAY WILL DAMPEN
INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
GEORGIA TODAY AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK MONDAY. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL COMMENCE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH
ASSOCIATED 850-700MB SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING PLUME OF HIGH ~2.0"
PWAT(POSSIBLE REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM DANNY)INTO
EASTERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS. DRY STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL
ACT TO DETER RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE DPVA AND MOISTURE
SURGE FROM THE SOUTH. THUS TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR DIMINISHING ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR THE
SC/NC BORDER...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY AT OR JUST A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL...HELD IN CHECK BY
OPAQUE VEIL OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE EJECTING UPPER WAVE.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING
AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAMPENED MID-
LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER FORCING
LOOKS TO BE WANING/EXITING THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERED
DIURNAL HEATING WITHIN THE LINGERING MOIST ~2.0" PWAT AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NC MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME THUNDER AS WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
DEVELOPS(MUCAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG). WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGES...HIGHEST IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING AS BOTH UPPER FORCING AND MOIST
PLUME SHIFT OFFSHORE.

HIGHS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PRECIP COVERAGE...RANGING FROM LOWER
80S IN WETTER MODEL SOLUTIONS TO MID/UPPER 80S WHERE SHOWERS ARE
SCARCE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...

THE MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE RE-
DEVELOPMENT/DISCONTINUOUS RETROGRESSION OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE TX GULF COAST...THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WED AND VA/NC WED NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH --FORECAST TO BECOME A CLOSED ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST--
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AND ULTIMATELY MAY GET TRAPPED BENEATH AN
AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR...HOWEVER...IF
THE CLOSED LOW WILL INDEED GET TRAPPED BENEATH IN REX BLOCK FASHION
OR INSTEAD BECOME INCORPORATED INTO A SEPARATE CLOSED LOW FORECAST
TO EVOLVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST - A PROCESS STARTED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS NC
WED NIGHT.

BEFOREHAND...A LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR/TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH AND CROSS NC IN SW FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE NEAR TERM; AND THIS FEATURE WILL BISECT CENTRAL NC
FROM NE TO SW AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH
WED...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO EMERGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE
WED-WED NIGHT.

WHILE THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MAY REGENERATE OVER THE FAR NE GOM OR FL
PANHANDLE...NOT NECESSARILY AS A TROPICAL ENTITY OWING TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE GOM UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC/BAROCLINIC
EFFECTS...ANY ASSOCIATED AFFECTS WILL STILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED
MOSTLY SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF CENTRAL NC BY THE FLOW PATTERN OUTLINED
ABOVE.

AS SUCH...AFTER AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO PROBABILITIES OF
DIURNAL PRECIPITATION TUE-WED...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AOB CLIMO POP...AS RELATIVELY DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. PROJECTED AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1420 METERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S. NEAR CLIMO
LOWS MOSTLY 65-70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AND PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING.

A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS EXPECTED
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTH BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WITHIN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...OTHERWISE.... EXPECT MOSTLY LOW END VFR
CEILINGS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THEIR
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...CBL




000
FXUS62 KRAH 301045
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL CROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...

MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CURRENTLY NEAR MOBILE BAY WILL DAMPEN
INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
GEORGIA TODAY AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK MONDAY. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL COMMENCE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH
ASSOCIATED 850-700MB SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING PLUME OF HIGH ~2.0"
PWAT(POSSIBLE REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM DANNY)INTO
EASTERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS. DRY STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL
ACT TO DETER RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE DPVA AND MOISTURE
SURGE FROM THE SOUTH. THUS TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR DIMINISHING ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR THE
SC/NC BORDER...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY AT OR JUST A CATEGORY BELOW NORMAL...HELD IN CHECK BY
OPAQUE VEIL OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE EJECTING UPPER WAVE.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY MORNING
AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DAMPENED MID-
LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER FORCING
LOOKS TO BE WANING/EXITING THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...TEMPERED
DIURNAL HEATING WITHIN THE LINGERING MOIST ~2.0" PWAT AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NC MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME THUNDER AS WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
DEVELOPS(MUCAPE OF 700-1500 J/KG). WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGES...HIGHEST IN THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING AS BOTH UPPER FORCING AND MOIST
PLUME SHIFT OFFSHORE.

HIGHS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON PRECIP COVERAGE...RANGING FROM LOWER
80S IN WETTER MODEL SOLUTIONS TO MID/UPPER 80S WHERE SHOWERS ARE
SCARCE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...

THE MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE RE-
DEVELOPMENT/DISCONTINUOUS RETROGRESSION OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE TX GULF COAST...THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WED AND VA/NC WED NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH --FORECAST TO BECOME A CLOSED ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST--
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AND ULTIMATELY MAY GET TRAPPED BENEATH AN
AMPLIFYING CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR...HOWEVER...IF
THE CLOSED LOW WILL INDEED GET TRAPPED BENEATH IN REX BLOCK FASHION
OR INSTEAD BECOME INCORPORATED INTO A SEPARATE CLOSED LOW FORECAST
TO EVOLVE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST - A PROCESS STARTED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS NC
WED NIGHT.

BEFOREHAND...A LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR/TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO APPROACH AND CROSS NC IN SW FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE NEAR TERM; AND THIS FEATURE WILL BISECT CENTRAL NC
FROM NE TO SW AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH
WED...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO EMERGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE
WED-WED NIGHT.

WHILE THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MAY REGENERATE OVER THE FAR NE GOM OR FL
PANHANDLE...NOT NECESSARILY AS A TROPICAL ENTITY OWING TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE GOM UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC/BAROCLINIC
EFFECTS...ANY ASSOCIATED AFFECTS WILL STILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED
MOSTLY SOUTH AND/OR WEST OF CENTRAL NC BY THE FLOW PATTERN OUTLINED
ABOVE.

AS SUCH...AFTER AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO PROBABILITIES OF
DIURNAL PRECIPITATION TUE-WED...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AOB CLIMO POP...AS RELATIVELY DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. PROJECTED AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1420 METERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S. NEAR CLIMO
LOWS MOSTLY 65-70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...

WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AND PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING.

A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS EXPECTED
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTH BETWEEN 06 TO 12Z MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
WITHIN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...OTHERWISE.... EXPECT MOSTLY LOW END VFR
CEILINGS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THEIR
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...CBL





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