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000
FXUS62 KRAH 221147
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
747 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS....AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
LIFT UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE OTHERWISE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP/AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WEST-CENTRAL VA
THIS MORNING TO JUST OFFSHORE THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CENTER OF THE ASSOCIATED STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 M/12 HR...WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC THROUGH
12Z. THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLD POOL/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...HAS SUPPORTED THE
MAINTENANCE OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS INTO THE RAH NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS...AND
CLOUDINESS...WILL BOTH BECOME ENHANCED WITH DIURNAL HEATING OWING TO
THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW - THE FORMER IN EXCESS OF MINUS 20 C
AND THE LATTER BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM...THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE RAH CWFA AS THE
UPPER LOW MAKES A TURN/LIFTS UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE TODAY. IT WILL
ALSO BE COOLER AND BREEZY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY DAYTIME WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH OWING TO THE DEEPENING OF A COASTAL LOW ACCOMPANYING THE
UPPER ONE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. CLEARING AREA-WIDE AND SIMILARLY
COOLER TONIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT NW WIND AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT...TO
MIDDLE 40S OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE COASTAL AND UPPER LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY UP THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
SPREAD EAST ACROSS NC THU. A NOTICEABLE NW BREEZE WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...
STRONGEST OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. DESPITE
SUNNY OR MOSTLY SO CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE
60S...TO AROUND 70 OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. AN
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING...ONE SPANNING
BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...WILL MOVE EAST AND INTO THE
TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES THU NIGHT. MID-HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM COMPONENT WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY WILL
CONTINUE ON OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY...WHILE A DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA.  BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF DEPICT THIS DISTURBANCE A RELATIVELY COMPACT VORT CENTER
BY THE TIME IT CROSSES NC FRIDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
STRONG DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL LIMIT DEEP MOISTURE AND THE ONLY ANTICIPATED SENSIBLE IMPACT IS
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH EASTWARD FROM THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...SETTLING OVER NC/VA ON MONDAY.  MODELS SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT..ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND... SLIPPING INTO
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS...ALONG WITH SHALLOW MIXING BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN THE GRADUAL RISE OF THICKNESSES INTO THE 1360-1370M
RANGE WOULD SUGGEST.  HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.  THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE A
LITTLE MORE TOWARD MIDWEEK AS A SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE CENTRAL US.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN VICINITY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT KRWI THROUGH AROUND 20Z. IN ADDITION TO THE
SHOWERS...VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS/CLOUD BASES MOSTLY BETWEEN 3500-7000
FT...AND TOPS IN SHOWERS UP TO 17 THOUSAND FT...PARTICULARLY IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW/AT KRDU AND
KRWI. OTHERWISE...NW SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE LOW-MID
TEENS KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S KTS...ONCE DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING COMMENCES BY 15Z...AND IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME
LIGHT...STILL FROM THE NW...AROUND SUNSET.

OUTLOOK: BREEZY NW WINDS AGAIN THU. OTHERWISE...VFR...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN SITUATED JUST WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
IN CENTRAL NC...THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 220733
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
333 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS....AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
LIFT UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE OTHERWISE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP/AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WEST-CENTRAL VA
THIS MORNING TO JUST OFFSHORE THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CENTER OF THE ASSOCIATED STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 M/12 HR...WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC THROUGH
12Z. THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLD POOL/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...HAS SUPPORTED THE
MAINTENANCE OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS INTO THE RAH NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS...AND
CLOUDINESS...WILL BOTH BECOME ENHANCED WITH DIURNAL HEATING OWING TO
THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW - THE FORMER IN EXCESS OF MINUS 20 C
AND THE LATTER BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM...THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE RAH CWFA AS THE
UPPER LOW MAKES A TURN/LIFTS UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE TODAY. IT WILL
ALSO BE COOLER AND BREEZY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY DAYTIME WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH OWING TO THE DEEPENING OF A COASTAL LOW ACCOMPANYING THE
UPPER ONE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. CLEARING AREA-WIDE AND SIMILARLY
COOLER TONIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT NW WIND AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT...TO
MIDDLE 40S OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE COASTAL AND UPPER LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY UP THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
SPREAD EAST ACROSS NC THU. A NOTICEABLE NW BREEZE WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...
STRONGEST OVER THE NE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. DESPITE
SUNNY OR MOSTLY SO CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE
60S...TO AROUND 70 OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. AN
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING...ONE SPANNING
BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...WILL MOVE EAST AND INTO THE
TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES THU NIGHT. MID-HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM COMPONENT WILL INCREASE
THU NIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY WILL
CONTINUE ON OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY...WHILE A DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA.  BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF DEPICT THIS DISTURBANCE A RELATIVELY COMPACT VORT CENTER
BY THE TIME IT CROSSES NC FRIDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
STRONG DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL LIMIT DEEP MOISTURE AND THE ONLY ANTICIPATED SENSIBLE IMPACT IS
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH EASTWARD FROM THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...SETTLING OVER NC/VA ON MONDAY.  MODELS SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT..ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND... SLIPPING INTO
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS...ALONG WITH SHALLOW MIXING BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN THE GRADUAL RISE OF THICKNESSES INTO THE 1360-1370M
RANGE WOULD SUGGEST.  HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.  THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE A
LITTLE MORE TOWARD MIDWEEK AS A SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE CENTRAL US.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN VICINITY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT KRWI THROUGH AROUND 20Z...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS KRDU AS THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
ARRIVES THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER AN INITIAL BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS PASSES KFAY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AT KFAY AND AT TRIAD TERMINALS.
MEANWHILE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW
AT KRDU AND ESPECIALLY KRWI...VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS/CLOUD BASES MOSTLY BETWEEN
4000-8000 FT...AND TOPS IN SHOWERS UP TO 17 THOUSAND FT.
OTHERWISE...A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S KTS...ONCE
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING COMMENCES BY 15Z...AND IN RESPONSE TO A
TIGHTENING MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK: BREEZY NW WINDS AGAIN THU. OTHERWISE...VFR...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN SITUATED JUST WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
IN CENTRAL NC...THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 220725
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS....AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
LIFT UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE OTHERWISE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP/AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM WEST-CENTRAL VA
THIS MORNING TO JUST OFFSHORE THE NC/VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CENTER OF THE ASSOCIATED STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 M/12 HR...WILL SETTLE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC THROUGH
12Z. THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLD POOL/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...HAS SUPPORTED THE
MAINTENANCE OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS INTO THE RAH NE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS...AND
CLOUDINESS...WILL BOTH BECOME ENHANCED WITH DIURNAL HEATING OWING TO
THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW - THE FORMER IN EXCESS OF MINUS 20 C
AND THE LATTER BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM...THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE RAH CWFA AS THE
UPPER LOW MAKES A TURN/LIFTS UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON-EVENING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE TODAY. IT WILL
ALSO BE COOLER AND BREEZY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY DAYTIME WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH OWING TO THE DEEPENING OF A COASTAL LOW ACCOMPANYING THE
UPPER ONE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. CLEARING AREA-WIDE AND SIMILARLY
COOLER TONIGHT...WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT NW WIND AND LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT...TO
MIDDLE 40S OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. PERTURBATIONS
WITHIN THIS FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE HALF THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-7.5 DEG C/KM)
COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF ROANOKE RAPIDS/WARRENTON AND TARBORO.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AIR MASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.

N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE.

LOW LEVEL CAA MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S IN THE NW WITH
MID-UPPER 60S COMMON ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL RID ARE AREA OF ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS. LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
PERSIST...AIDING TO MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. OF SFC WINDS WERE TO
DECOUPLE (MAINLY WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT)...COULD SEE MIN TEMPS AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S AT A FEW SPOTS. FOR NOW WILL BOTTOM OUT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S IN THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WITH IN TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY WILL
CONTINUE ON OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY...WHILE A DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA.  BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF DEPICT THIS DISTURBANCE A RELATIVELY COMPACT VORT CENTER
BY THE TIME IT CROSSES NC FRIDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
STRONG DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL LIMIT DEEP MOISTURE AND THE ONLY ANTICIPATED SENSIBLE IMPACT IS
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH EASTWARD FROM THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...SETTLING OVER NC/VA ON MONDAY.  MODELS SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT..ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND... SLIPPING INTO
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS...ALONG WITH SHALLOW MIXING BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN THE GRADUAL RISE OF THICKNESSES INTO THE 1360-1370M
RANGE WOULD SUGGEST.  HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.  THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE A
LITTLE MORE TOWARD MIDWEEK AS A SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE CENTRAL US.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN VICINITY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT KRWI THROUGH AROUND 20Z...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS KRDU AS THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
ARRIVES THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER AN INITIAL BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS PASSES KFAY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AT KFAY AND AT TRIAD TERMINALS.
MEANWHILE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW
AT KRDU AND ESPECIALLY KRWI...VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS/CLOUD BASES MOSTLY BETWEEN
4000-8000 FT...AND TOPS IN SHOWERS UP TO 17 THOUSAND FT.
OTHERWISE...A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S KTS...ONCE
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING COMMENCES BY 15Z...AND IN RESPONSE TO A
TIGHTENING MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK: BREEZY NW WINDS AGAIN THU. OTHERWISE...VFR...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN SITUATED JUST WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
IN CENTRAL NC...THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 220722
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS....AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
LIFT UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE OTHERWISE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 912 PM TUESDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED MOVING INTO THE NC COASTAL
PLAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA SHORTLY...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SEWD INTO SOUTHERN VA/NORTHEAST NC. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT...NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER...JUST EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. OTHERWISE...FROPA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS PAST
EVENING HAS BEEN DRY WITH ACCOMPANYING BROKEN/OVERCAST MID CLOUD
DECK SPREADING EASTWARD.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE ZONES...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH NWLY WIND GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH...CAA WILL GOVERN OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE MID
40S OVER THE WEST TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. PERTURBATIONS
WITHIN THIS FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE HALF THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-7.5 DEG C/KM)
COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF ROANOKE RAPIDS/WARRENTON AND TARBORO.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AIR MASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.

N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE.

LOW LEVEL CAA MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S IN THE NW WITH
MID-UPPER 60S COMMON ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL RID ARE AREA OF ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS. LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
PERSIST...AIDING TO MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. OF SFC WINDS WERE TO
DECOUPLE (MAINLY WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT)...COULD SEE MIN TEMPS AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S AT A FEW SPOTS. FOR NOW WILL BOTTOM OUT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S IN THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WITH IN TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY WILL
CONTINUE ON OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY...WHILE A DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD OUR AREA.  BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF DEPICT THIS DISTURBANCE A RELATIVELY COMPACT VORT CENTER
BY THE TIME IT CROSSES NC FRIDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
STRONG DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL LIMIT DEEP MOISTURE AND THE ONLY ANTICIPATED SENSIBLE IMPACT IS
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCH EASTWARD FROM THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...SETTLING OVER NC/VA ON MONDAY.  MODELS SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT..ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE CROSSING NEW ENGLAND... SLIPPING INTO
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS...ALONG WITH SHALLOW MIXING BENEATH THE
HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY...MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN THE GRADUAL RISE OF THICKNESSES INTO THE 1360-1370M
RANGE WOULD SUGGEST.  HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.  THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD.  THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE A
LITTLE MORE TOWARD MIDWEEK AS A SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE CENTRAL US.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN VICINITY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT KRWI THROUGH AROUND 20Z...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS KRDU AS THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
ARRIVES THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER AN INITIAL BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS PASSES KFAY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AT KFAY AND AT TRIAD TERMINALS.
MEANWHILE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW
AT KRDU AND ESPECIALLY KRWI...VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS/CLOUD BASES MOSTLY BETWEEN
4000-8000 FT...AND TOPS IN SHOWERS UP TO 17 THOUSAND FT.
OTHERWISE...A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S KTS...ONCE
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING COMMENCES BY 15Z...AND IN RESPONSE TO A
TIGHTENING MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK: BREEZY NW WINDS AGAIN THU. OTHERWISE...VFR...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN SITUATED JUST WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
IN CENTRAL NC...THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 220624
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
223 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS....AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
LIFT UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE OTHERWISE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 912 PM TUESDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED MOVING INTO THE NC COASTAL
PLAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA SHORTLY...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SEWD INTO SOUTHERN VA/NORTHEAST NC. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT...NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER...JUST EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. OTHERWISE...FROPA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS PAST
EVENING HAS BEEN DRY WITH ACCOMPANYING BROKEN/OVERCAST MID CLOUD
DECK SPREADING EASTWARD.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE ZONES...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH NWLY WIND GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH...CAA WILL GOVERN OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE MID
40S OVER THE WEST TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. PERTURBATIONS
WITHIN THIS FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE HALF THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-7.5 DEG C/KM)
COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF ROANOKE RAPIDS/WARRENTON AND TARBORO.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AIR MASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.

N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE.

LOW LEVEL CAA MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S IN THE NW WITH
MID-UPPER 60S COMMON ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL RID ARE AREA OF ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS. LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
PERSIST...AIDING TO MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. OF SFC WINDS WERE TO
DECOUPLE (MAINLY WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT)...COULD SEE MIN TEMPS AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S AT A FEW SPOTS. FOR NOW WILL BOTTOM OUT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S IN THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WITH IN TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL BRIEFLY
APPROACH/BUILD OVER THE AREA. NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN VARYING CLOUDINESS
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
TOWARD MORNING. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH POSITIONED TO OUR NW TONIGHT
WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL ADVECTION ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP
MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES-CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER... WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM... WE MAY SEE SUSTAINED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE... WITH SOME GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 MPH OR SO DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNES VALUES AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1350S TO 1360S.
THUS... GIVEN FULL SUN IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT OF A
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
WEAKENING WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S... WITH A
FEW UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE USUAL RURAL COLD SPOTS.

ONE LAST S/W DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH STRONGER
WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS AND NAM. HOWEVER... WITH SUCH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE PRECEDING THE FEATURE AND LACK OF ANY REAL MOISTURE
RETURN IN ADVANCE OF IT MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP BEING
GENERATED ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS IT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS... WILL JUST
SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY. HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM
ENDS UP BEING WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON HIGH TEMPS THOUGH (WITH CLOUD
COVER BEING THE VARIABLE IN QUESTION). FOR NOW WILL JUST SHOW PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY... WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: QUITE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK... YIELDING A WARMING TREND. EXPECT TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS TO START THE PERIOD... INCREASING TO HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND AROUND 70/LOWER 70S... WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE PATTERN CHANCE TO RIDING ALOFT... SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD YIELD A NICE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE... GIVEN THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS EXPECT FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S... TO AROUND 50 ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN VICINITY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT KRWI THROUGH AROUND 20Z...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS KRDU AS THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
ARRIVES THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER AN INITIAL BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS PASSES KFAY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AT KFAY AND AT TRIAD TERMINALS.
MEANWHILE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW
AT KRDU AND ESPECIALLY KRWI...VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS/CLOUD BASES MOSTLY BETWEEN
4000-8000 FT...AND TOPS IN SHOWERS UP TO 17 THOUSAND FT.
OTHERWISE...A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S KTS...ONCE
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING COMMENCES BY 15Z...AND IN RESPONSE TO A
TIGHTENING MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK: BREEZY NW WINDS AGAIN THU. OTHERWISE...VFR...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN SITUATED JUST WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
IN CENTRAL NC...THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 220623
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
223 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS....AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN VA AND NORTHEASTERN NC THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
LIFT UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE OTHERWISE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 912 PM TUESDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED MOVING INTO THE NC COASTAL
PLAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA SHORTLY...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SEWD INTO SOUTHERN VA/NORTHEAST NC. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT...NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER...JUST EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. OTHERWISE...FROPA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS PAST
EVENING HAS BEEN DRY WITH ACCOMPANYING BROKEN/OVERCAST MID CLOUD
DECK SPREADING EASTWARD.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE ZONES...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH NWLY WIND GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH...CAA WILL GOVERN OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE MID
40S OVER THE WEST TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. PERTURBATIONS
WITHIN THIS FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE HALF THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-7.5 DEG C/KM)
COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF ROANOKE RAPIDS/WARRENTON AND TARBORO.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AIR MASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.

N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE.

LOW LEVEL CAA MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S IN THE NW WITH
MID-UPPER 60S COMMON ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL RID ARE AREA OF ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS. LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
PERSIST...AIDING TO MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. OF SFC WINDS WERE TO
DECOUPLE (MAINLY WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT)...COULD SEE MIN TEMPS AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S AT A FEW SPOTS. FOR NOW WILL BOTTOM OUT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S IN THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WITH IN TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL BRIEFLY
APPROACH/BUILD OVER THE AREA. NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN VARYING CLOUDINESS
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
TOWARD MORNING. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH POSITIONED TO OUR NW TONIGHT
WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL ADVECTION ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP
MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES-CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER... WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM... WE MAY SEE SUSTAINED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE... WITH SOME GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 MPH OR SO DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNES VALUES AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1350S TO 1360S.
THUS... GIVEN FULL SUN IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT OF A
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
WEAKENING WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S... WITH A
FEW UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE USUAL RURAL COLD SPOTS.

ONE LAST S/W DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH STRONGER
WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS AND NAM. HOWEVER... WITH SUCH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE PRECEDING THE FEATURE AND LACK OF ANY REAL MOISTURE
RETURN IN ADVANCE OF IT MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP BEING
GENERATED ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS IT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS... WILL JUST
SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY. HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM
ENDS UP BEING WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON HIGH TEMPS THOUGH (WITH CLOUD
COVER BEING THE VARIABLE IN QUESTION). FOR NOW WILL JUST SHOW PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY... WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: QUITE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK... YIELDING A WARMING TREND. EXPECT TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS TO START THE PERIOD... INCREASING TO HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND AROUND 70/LOWER 70S... WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE PATTERN CHANCE TO RIDING ALOFT... SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD YIELD A NICE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE... GIVEN THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS EXPECT FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S... TO AROUND 50 ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUESDAY...

THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VA AND
NORTHEASTERN NC THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN VICINITY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT KRWI THROUGH AROUND 20Z...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
WEST AS KRDU AS THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
ARRIVES THROUGH 12Z.

AFTER AN INITIAL BAND OF ALTOCUMULUS PASSES KFAY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AT KFAY AND AT TRIAD TERMINALS.
MEANWHILE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW
AT KRDU AND ESPECIALLY KRWI...VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS/CLOUD BASES MOSTLY BETWEEN
4000-8000 FT...AND TOPS IN SHOWERS UP TO 17 THOUSAND FT.
OTHERWISE...A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH AN OCCASIONAL
GUST INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20S KTS...ONCE
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING COMMENCES BY 15Z...AND IN RESPONSE TO A
TIGHTENING MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK: BREEZY NW WINDS AGAIN THU. OTHERWISE...VFR...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN SITUATED JUST WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
IN CENTRAL NC...THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 220112
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
912 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY WHILE IT
TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 912 PM TUESDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED MOVING INTO THE NC COASTAL
PLAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA SHORTLY...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIVING SEWD INTO SOUTHERN VA/NORTHEAST NC. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT...NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER...JUST EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95. OTHERWISE...FROPA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS PAST
EVENING HAS BEEN DRY WITH ACCOMPANYING BROKEN/OVERCAST MID CLOUD
DECK SPREADING EASTWARD.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NE ZONES...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH NWLY WIND GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. AS SUCH...CAA WILL GOVERN OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE MID
40S OVER THE WEST TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. PERTURBATIONS
WITHIN THIS FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE HALF THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-7.5 DEG C/KM)
COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF ROANOKE RAPIDS/WARRENTON AND TARBORO.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AIR MASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.

N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE.

LOW LEVEL CAA MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S IN THE NW WITH
MID-UPPER 60S COMMON ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL RID ARE AREA OF ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS. LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
PERSIST...AIDING TO MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. OF SFC WINDS WERE TO
DECOUPLE (MAINLY WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT)...COULD SEE MIN TEMPS AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S AT A FEW SPOTS. FOR NOW WILL BOTTOM OUT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S IN THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WITH IN TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL BRIEFLY
APPROACH/BUILD OVER THE AREA. NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN VARYING CLOUDINESS
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
TOWARD MORNING. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH POSITIONED TO OUR NW TONIGHT
WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL ADVECTION ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE DEEP
MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES-CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER... WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM... WE MAY SEE SUSTAINED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE... WITH SOME GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 MPH OR SO DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNES VALUES AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1350S TO 1360S.
THUS... GIVEN FULL SUN IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT OF A
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
WEAKENING WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S... WITH A
FEW UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE USUAL RURAL COLD SPOTS.

ONE LAST S/W DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH STRONGER
WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS AND NAM. HOWEVER... WITH SUCH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE PRECEDING THE FEATURE AND LACK OF ANY REAL MOISTURE
RETURN IN ADVANCE OF IT MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP BEING
GENERATED ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS IT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS... WILL JUST
SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY. HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM
ENDS UP BEING WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON HIGH TEMPS THOUGH (WITH CLOUD
COVER BEING THE VARIABLE IN QUESTION). FOR NOW WILL JUST SHOW PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY... WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: QUITE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK... YIELDING A WARMING TREND. EXPECT TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS TO START THE PERIOD... INCREASING TO HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND AROUND 70/LOWER 70S... WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE PATTERN CHANCE TO RIDING ALOFT... SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD YIELD A NICE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE... GIVEN THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS EXPECT FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S... TO AROUND 50 ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
WILL CLEAR THE REGION IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME CLOUDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND ADDITIONALLY THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTINESS. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS WERE NOTED
NEAR THE VA BORDER AND THIS IS WHERE THE ISOLATED COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
TWO IN CENTRAL NC...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THEN...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
POSSIBLE. ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
MAY CAUSE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS WITH CEILINGS 3500-5000FT...MAINLY
IN VICINITY OF KRDU AND KRWI DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. THIS
FEATURE MAY ALSO RESULT IN A SHOWER OR TWO...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST (IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI)...BUT ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
VIRGINIA BORDER.

OUTLOOK...A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO LIFT TO THE NE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD THEN SETTLE OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...KRD/WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 212357
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
757 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...AND LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...

REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE TRIAD REGION BY 22Z...THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS BY
00Z...AND EXIT THE COASTAL PLAIN BY 02Z. PER MESO-ANALYSIS
PLOTS...AIR MASS STILL RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE. HOWEVER LATEST RAP
AND HRR MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
NE PIEDMONT AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. SOME OF THESE WRF MODELS
ARE NAM BASED WHICH IS WETTER MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. THUS...BELIEVE A 1:3 CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE VICINITY
OF ROANOKE RAPIDS IS A WORST CASE SCENARIO.

MARGINALLY BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A N0NW
WIND GUSTING UP TO 20KTS WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

OTHERWISE NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN VARYING CLOUDINESS NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD
MORNING. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH POSITIONED TO OUR NW TONIGHT WITH
BETTER LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO COMMENCE BY DAYBREAK. MOS GUIDANCE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT RANGING IN THE MID 40S OVER THE WEST TO THE
UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. PERTURBATIONS
WITHIN THIS FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE HALF THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-7.5 DEG C/KM)
COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF ROANOKE RAPIDS/WARRENTON AND TARBORO.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AIR MASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.

N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE.

LOW LEVEL CAA MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S IN THE NW WITH
MID-UPPER 60S COMMON ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL RID ARE AREA OF ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS. LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
PERSIST...AIDING TO MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. OF SFC WINDS WERE TO
DECOUPLE (MAINLY WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT)...COULD SEE MIN TEMPS AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S AT A FEW SPOTS. FOR NOW WILL BOTTOM OUT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S IN THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WITH IN TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL BRIEFLY
APPROACH/BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
DEEP MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES-CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER... WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM... WE MAY SEE SUSTAINED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE... WITH SOME GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 MPH OR SO DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNES VALUES AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1350S TO 1360S.
THUS... GIVEN FULL SUN IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT OF A
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
WEAKENING WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S... WITH A
FEW UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE USUAL RURAL COLD SPOTS.

ONE LAST S/W DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH STRONGER
WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS AND NAM. HOWEVER... WITH SUCH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE PRECEDING THE FEATURE AND LACK OF ANY REAL MOISTURE
RETURN IN ADVANCE OF IT MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP BEING
GENERATED ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS IT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS... WILL JUST
SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY. HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM
ENDS UP BEING WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON HIGH TEMPS THOUGH (WITH CLOUD
COVER BEING THE VARIABLE IN QUESTION). FOR NOW WILL JUST SHOW PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY... WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: QUITE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK... YIELDING A WARMING TREND. EXPECT TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS TO START THE PERIOD... INCREASING TO HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND AROUND 70/LOWER 70S... WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE PATTERN CHANCE TO RIDING ALOFT... SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD YIELD A NICE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE... GIVEN THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS EXPECT FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S... TO AROUND 50 ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 750 PM TUESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
WILL CLEAR THE REGION IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME CLOUDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR RANGE. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND ADDITIONALLY THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTINESS. A COUPLE OF SHOWERS WERE NOTED
NEAR THE VA BORDER AND THIS IS WHERE THE ISOLATED COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
TWO IN CENTRAL NC...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THEN...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
POSSIBLE. ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
MAY CAUSE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS WITH CEILINGS 3500-5000FT...MAINLY
IN VICINITY OF KRDU AND KRWI DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. THIS
FEATURE MAY ALSO RESULT IN A SHOWER OR TWO...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST (IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI)...BUT ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
VIRGINIA BORDER.

OUTLOOK...A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO LIFT TO THE NE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD THEN SETTLE OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...KRD/WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 211906
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
307 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...AND LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...

REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE TRIAD REGION BY 22Z...THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS BY
00Z...AND EXIT THE COASTAL PLAIN BY 02Z. PER MESO-ANALYSIS
PLOTS...AIR MASS STILL RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE. HOWEVER LATEST RAP
AND HRR MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
NE PIEDMONT AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. SOME OF THESE WRF MODELS
ARE NAM BASED WHICH IS WETTER MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. THUS...BELIEVE A 1:3 CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE VICINITY
OF ROANOKE RAPIDS IS A WORST CASE SCENARIO.

MARGINALLY BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A N0NW
WIND GUSTING UP TO 20KTS WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

OTHERWISE NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN VARYING CLOUDINESS NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD
MORNING. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH POSITIONED TO OUR NW TONIGHT WITH
BETTER LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO COMMENCE BY DAYBREAK. MOS GUIDANCE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT RANGING IN THE MID 40S OVER THE WEST TO THE
UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 307 PM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. PERTURBATIONS
WITHIN THIS FLOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CAUSE
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE HALF THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-7.5 DEG C/KM)
COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF ROANOKE RAPIDS/WARRENTON AND TARBORO.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AIR MASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS.

N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE.

LOW LEVEL CAA MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 60S IN THE NW WITH
MID-UPPER 60S COMMON ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL RID ARE AREA OF ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS. LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL
PERSIST...AIDING TO MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. OF SFC WINDS WERE TO
DECOUPLE (MAINLY WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT)...COULD SEE MIN TEMPS AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S AT A FEW SPOTS. FOR NOW WILL BOTTOM OUT TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S IN THE WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WITH IN TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL BRIEFLY
APPROACH/BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
DEEP MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES-CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER... WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM... WE MAY SEE SUSTAINED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE... WITH SOME GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 MPH OR SO DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNES VALUES AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1350S TO 1360S.
THUS... GIVEN FULL SUN IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT OF A
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
WEAKENING WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S... WITH A
FEW UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE USUAL RURAL COLD SPOTS.

ONE LAST S/W DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH STRONGER
WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS AND NAM. HOWEVER... WITH SUCH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE PRECEDING THE FEATURE AND LACK OF ANY REAL MOISTURE
RETURN IN ADVANCE OF IT MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP BEING
GENERATED ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS IT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS... WILL JUST
SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY. HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM
ENDS UP BEING WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON HIGH TEMPS THOUGH (WITH CLOUD
COVER BEING THE VARIABLE IN QUESTION). FOR NOW WILL JUST SHOW PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY... WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: QUITE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK... YIELDING A WARMING TREND. EXPECT TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS TO START THE PERIOD... INCREASING TO HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND AROUND 70/LOWER 70S... WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE PATTERN CHANCE TO RIDING ALOFT... SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD YIELD A NICE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE... GIVEN THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS EXPECT FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S... TO AROUND 50 ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE NOTED BY THE SURFACE WINDS
VEERING FROM THE WEST-SW TO THE N-NW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 8-12KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20KTS. A LOW END VFR CEILING 3500-5000FT MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BETWEEN 20Z-02Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS AS WELL AS KRDU AND
KRWI. ENOUGH LIFT MAY OCCUR TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO BUT
CONFIDENCE THAT A SHOWER WILL OCCUR IN VICINITY OF A TERMINAL IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE AERODROME FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY CLEAR AFTER 04Z.

FOR WEDNESDAY...BLUSTERY N-NW WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH GUSTS 18-23KTS
HIGHLY PROBABLE. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS WITH CEILINGS
3500-5000FT IN VICINITY OF KRDU AND KRWI. A SHOWER OR TWO MAY OCCUR
IN VICINITY OF KRWI...BUT MORE SO NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER.

A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO LIFT TO THE NE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD THEN SETTLE OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 211904
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
304 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...AND LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OH AND TN VALLEYS LATE THIS MORNING WILL
CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STEADY SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW-MID 70S NORTH...AND MID-UPPER 70S SOUTH.

AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER...MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF. WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED
(AS PER 12Z GSO SOUNDING)...ENOUGH LIFT GENERATED BY THE FRONT AND
ATTENDANT S/W MAY CAUSE A STRAY SHOWER OR A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN-NE COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BLUSTERY AT TIMES AS LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES. MIN TEMPS MID 40S WEST TO UPEPR 40S
EAST-SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...

THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND DELMARVA ON
WED...THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT AND
BEYOND. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN BY ABOUT
10 MB (FROM JUST UNDER 1010 MB TO JUST UNDER 1000 MB) FROM 12Z WED
TO 12Z THU...AS IT TOO LIFTS UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES/STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW...THE FORMER IN EXCESS OF MINUS 20 C AND THE LATTER
BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM...WILL CONSEQUENTLY BRUSH THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...AND RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
"INSTABILITY" SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL
OTHERWISE BE COOLER AND BREEZY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY DAYTIME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OWING TO THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW...AND HIGHS IN
THE 60S. CLEARING AND SIMILARLY COOLER WED NIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING WILL BRIEFLY
APPROACH/BUILD OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
DEEP MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES-CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER... WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM... WE MAY SEE SUSTAINED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE... WITH SOME GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 MPH OR SO DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY. AFTERNOON
LOW LEVEL THICKNES VALUES AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1350S TO 1360S.
THUS... GIVEN FULL SUN IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT OF A
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
WEAKENING WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S... WITH A
FEW UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE USUAL RURAL COLD SPOTS.

ONE LAST S/W DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH STRONGER
WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS AND NAM. HOWEVER... WITH SUCH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE PRECEDING THE FEATURE AND LACK OF ANY REAL MOISTURE
RETURN IN ADVANCE OF IT MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP BEING
GENERATED ACROSS CENTRAL NC AS IT ACROSS THE AREA. THUS... WILL JUST
SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY. HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM
ENDS UP BEING WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON HIGH TEMPS THOUGH (WITH CLOUD
COVER BEING THE VARIABLE IN QUESTION). FOR NOW WILL JUST SHOW PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY... WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: QUITE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK... YIELDING A WARMING TREND. EXPECT TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS TO START THE PERIOD... INCREASING TO HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR
TWO ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS YIELDS HIGH TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND AROUND 70/LOWER 70S... WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY... WITH POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE PATTERN CHANCE TO RIDING ALOFT... SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD YIELD A NICE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE... GIVEN THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS EXPECT FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S... TO AROUND 50 ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE NOTED BY THE SURFACE WINDS
VEERING FROM THE WEST-SW TO THE N-NW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 8-12KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20KTS. A LOW END VFR CEILING 3500-5000FT MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BETWEEN 20Z-02Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS AS WELL AS KRDU AND
KRWI. ENOUGH LIFT MAY OCCUR TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO BUT
CONFIDENCE THAT A SHOWER WILL OCCUR IN VICINITY OF A TERMINAL IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE AERODROME FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY CLEAR AFTER 04Z.

FOR WEDNESDAY...BLUSTERY N-NW WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH GUSTS 18-23KTS
HIGHLY PROBABLE. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS WITH CEILINGS
3500-5000FT IN VICINITY OF KRDU AND KRWI. A SHOWER OR TWO MAY OCCUR
IN VICINITY OF KRWI...BUT MORE SO NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER.

A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO LIFT TO THE NE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD THEN SETTLE OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 211712
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
115 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...AND LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OH AND TN VALLEYS LATE THIS MORNING WILL
CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STEADY SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW-MID 70S NORTH...AND MID-UPPER 70S SOUTH.

AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER...MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF. WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED
(AS PER 12Z GSO SOUNDING)...ENOUGH LIFT GENERATED BY THE FRONT AND
ATTENDANT S/W MAY CAUSE A STRAY SHOWER OR A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN-NE COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BLUSTERY AT TIMES AS LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES. MIN TEMPS MID 40S WEST TO UPEPR 40S
EAST-SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...

THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND DELMARVA ON
WED...THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT AND
BEYOND. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN BY ABOUT
10 MB (FROM JUST UNDER 1010 MB TO JUST UNDER 1000 MB) FROM 12Z WED
TO 12Z THU...AS IT TOO LIFTS UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES/STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW...THE FORMER IN EXCESS OF MINUS 20 C AND THE LATTER
BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM...WILL CONSEQUENTLY BRUSH THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...AND RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
"INSTABILITY" SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL
OTHERWISE BE COOLER AND BREEZY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY DAYTIME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OWING TO THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW...AND HIGHS IN
THE 60S. CLEARING AND SIMILARLY COOLER WED NIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BETWEEN THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1335M THURSDAY MORNING...AND FULL INSOLATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 63-68 RANGE.  THE ALREADY
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND
CROSSES NC FRIDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THOUGH ITS NOT
CLEAR HOW THICK THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE.  HAVE NUDGED THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S.  HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MUCH MORE COMPACT AND CLOSED OFF WAVE
WITH A STRONG SHOT OF DCVA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH NO QPF EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC.
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO KEEP A
POTENTIAL (SUB)TROPICAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THUS THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES...THE ECMWF AND GFS ROUGHLY AGREE
THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...WITH
THICKNESSES CLIMBING BACK TOWARD 1370M...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE NOTED BY THE SURFACE WINDS
VEERING FROM THE WEST-SW TO THE N-NW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 8-12KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20KTS. A LOW END VFR CEILING 3500-5000FT MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BETWEEN 20Z-02Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES IN VICINITY OF THE TRIAD TERMINALS AS WELL AS KRDU AND
KRWI. ENOUGH LIFT MAY OCCUR TO PRODUCE A SHOWER OR TWO BUT
CONFIDENCE THAT A SHOWER WILL OCCUR IN VICINITY OF A TERMINAL IS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE AERODROME FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY CLEAR AFTER 04Z.

FOR WEDNESDAY...BLUSTERY N-NW WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH GUSTS 18-23KTS
HIGHLY PROBABLE. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS WITH CEILINGS
3500-5000FT IN VICINITY OF KRDU AND KRWI. A SHOWER OR TWO MAY OCCUR
IN VICINITY OF KRWI...BUT MORE SO NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER.

A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO LIFT TO THE NE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD THEN SETTLE OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 211458
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...AND LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...

A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE OH AND TN VALLEYS LATE THIS MORNING WILL
CROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STEADY SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW-MID 70S NORTH...AND MID-UPPER 70S SOUTH.

AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER...MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF. WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED
(AS PER 12Z GSO SOUNDING)...ENOUGH LIFT GENERATED BY THE FRONT AND
ATTENDANT S/W MAY CAUSE A STRAY SHOWER OR A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN-NE COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BLUSTERY AT TIMES AS LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES. MIN TEMPS MID 40S WEST TO UPEPR 40S
EAST-SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...

THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND DELMARVA ON
WED...THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT AND
BEYOND. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN BY ABOUT
10 MB (FROM JUST UNDER 1010 MB TO JUST UNDER 1000 MB) FROM 12Z WED
TO 12Z THU...AS IT TOO LIFTS UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES/STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW...THE FORMER IN EXCESS OF MINUS 20 C AND THE LATTER
BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM...WILL CONSEQUENTLY BRUSH THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...AND RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
"INSTABILITY" SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL
OTHERWISE BE COOLER AND BREEZY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY DAYTIME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OWING TO THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW...AND HIGHS IN
THE 60S. CLEARING AND SIMILARLY COOLER WED NIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BETWEEN THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1335M THURSDAY MORNING...AND FULL INSOLATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 63-68 RANGE.  THE ALREADY
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND
CROSSES NC FRIDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THOUGH ITS NOT
CLEAR HOW THICK THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE.  HAVE NUDGED THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S.  HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MUCH MORE COMPACT AND CLOSED OFF WAVE
WITH A STRONG SHOT OF DCVA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH NO QPF EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC.
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO KEEP A
POTENTIAL (SUB)TROPICAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THUS THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES...THE ECMWF AND GFS ROUGHLY AGREE
THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...WITH
THICKNESSES CLIMBING BACK TOWARD 1370M...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM TUESDAY...

A LIGHT SSW SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-10 KT FROM THE WSW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 20Z-01Z THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO VEER TO WNW AND INCREASE INTO THE 8-14
KT RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 4500-7000 FT AND TOPS BETWEEN 9-15
THOUSAND FT - THE DEEPEST OF WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE - WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
PASSING FRONT...WITH THE RELATIVE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCE
OF A SHOWER AT KRDU AND KRWI. A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH
AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT AND WED WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LOW VFR CEILINGS
(BETWEEN 3500-5000 FT) AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY AT KRWI
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST WILL PRODUCE NW SURFACE WINDS IN
THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS WED...AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE ON THU.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 211146
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
746 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL (AOA 9-10
THOUSAND FT) CLOUD BAND AND VIRGA - OR ISOLATED SPRINKLE AT THE
SURFACE - WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH 12Z. SKIES WILL
CONSEQUENTLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID-
MORNING...WHICH WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE ORIONID
METEOR SHOWER IN THE COUPLE HOURS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SHARPLY
SSE FROM NORTHERN MI AT 07Z TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THIS
EVENING...THEN ULTIMATELY CULMINATE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY WED. A PRECEDING
SURFACE COLD FRONT...ANALYZED FROM WESTERN NY TO NORTHERN AR AT
07Z...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PRECEDING THE FRONT...AND A WEST TO NW
DOWNSLOPE WIND AHEAD AND BEHIND IT...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 70S OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TO UPPER 70S OVER EASTERN
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED
OVERALL...THE FORMER CONFINED TO A THIN LAYER BETWEEN 850-750 MB AND
THE LATTER AOB 150 J/KG PER BUFR SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBABILITIES...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AMIDST FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT
LATE IN THE DAY MAY SUPPORT A BAND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...WHERE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND DEEPER LIFT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT.  ANY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST AND/OR DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY EVENING.

TONIGHT: THE CENTER OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 M/12 HR...WILL CROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWFA AS
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
POOL/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A RENEWED CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES OR LIGH RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. DRY AND VARIABLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. LOWS
MOSTLY 45 TO 50 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...

THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND DELMARVA ON
WED...THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT AND
BEYOND. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN BY ABOUT
10 MB (FROM JUST UNDER 1010 MB TO JUST UNDER 1000 MB) FROM 12Z WED
TO 12Z THU...AS IT TOO LIFTS UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES/STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW...THE FORMER IN EXCESS OF MINUS 20 C AND THE LATTER
BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM...WILL CONSEQUENTLY BRUSH THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...AND RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
"INSTABILITY" SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL
OTHERWISE BE COOLER AND BREEZY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY DAYTIME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OWING TO THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW...AND HIGHS IN
THE 60S. CLEARING AND SIMILARLY COOLER WED NIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BETWEEN THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1335M THURSDAY MORNING...AND FULL INSOLATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 63-68 RANGE.  THE ALREADY
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND
CROSSES NC FRIDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THOUGH ITS NOT
CLEAR HOW THICK THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE.  HAVE NUDGED THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S.  HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MUCH MORE COMPACT AND CLOSED OFF WAVE
WITH A STRONG SHOT OF DCVA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH NO QPF EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC.
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO KEEP A
POTENTIAL (SUB)TROPICAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THUS THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES...THE ECMWF AND GFS ROUGHLY AGREE
THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...WITH
THICKNESSES CLIMBING BACK TOWARD 1370M...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM TUESDAY...

A LIGHT SSW SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-10 KT FROM THE WSW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 20Z-01Z THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO VEER TO WNW AND INCREASE INTO THE 8-14
KT RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 4500-7000 FT AND TOPS BETWEEN 9-15
THOUSAND FT - THE DEEPEST OF WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE - WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
PASSING FRONT...WITH THE RELATIVE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCE
OF A SHOWER AT KRDU AND KRWI. A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH
AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT AND WED WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LOW VFR CEILINGS
(BETWEEN 3500-5000 FT) AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY AT KRWI
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST WILL PRODUCE NW SURFACE WINDS IN
THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS WED...AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE ON THU.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 211146
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
746 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL (AOA 9-10
THOUSAND FT) CLOUD BAND AND VIRGA - OR ISOLATED SPRINKLE AT THE
SURFACE - WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH 12Z. SKIES WILL
CONSEQUENTLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID-
MORNING...WHICH WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE ORIONID
METEOR SHOWER IN THE COUPLE HOURS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SHARPLY
SSE FROM NORTHERN MI AT 07Z TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THIS
EVENING...THEN ULTIMATELY CULMINATE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY WED. A PRECEDING
SURFACE COLD FRONT...ANALYZED FROM WESTERN NY TO NORTHERN AR AT
07Z...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PRECEDING THE FRONT...AND A WEST TO NW
DOWNSLOPE WIND AHEAD AND BEHIND IT...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 70S OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TO UPPER 70S OVER EASTERN
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED
OVERALL...THE FORMER CONFINED TO A THIN LAYER BETWEEN 850-750 MB AND
THE LATTER AOB 150 J/KG PER BUFR SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBABILITIES...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AMIDST FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT
LATE IN THE DAY MAY SUPPORT A BAND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...WHERE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND DEEPER LIFT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT.  ANY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST AND/OR DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY EVENING.

TONIGHT: THE CENTER OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 M/12 HR...WILL CROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWFA AS
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
POOL/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A RENEWED CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES OR LIGH RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. DRY AND VARIABLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. LOWS
MOSTLY 45 TO 50 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...

THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND DELMARVA ON
WED...THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT AND
BEYOND. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN BY ABOUT
10 MB (FROM JUST UNDER 1010 MB TO JUST UNDER 1000 MB) FROM 12Z WED
TO 12Z THU...AS IT TOO LIFTS UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES/STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW...THE FORMER IN EXCESS OF MINUS 20 C AND THE LATTER
BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM...WILL CONSEQUENTLY BRUSH THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...AND RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
"INSTABILITY" SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL
OTHERWISE BE COOLER AND BREEZY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY DAYTIME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OWING TO THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW...AND HIGHS IN
THE 60S. CLEARING AND SIMILARLY COOLER WED NIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BETWEEN THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1335M THURSDAY MORNING...AND FULL INSOLATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 63-68 RANGE.  THE ALREADY
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND
CROSSES NC FRIDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THOUGH ITS NOT
CLEAR HOW THICK THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE.  HAVE NUDGED THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S.  HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MUCH MORE COMPACT AND CLOSED OFF WAVE
WITH A STRONG SHOT OF DCVA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH NO QPF EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC.
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO KEEP A
POTENTIAL (SUB)TROPICAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THUS THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES...THE ECMWF AND GFS ROUGHLY AGREE
THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...WITH
THICKNESSES CLIMBING BACK TOWARD 1370M...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM TUESDAY...

A LIGHT SSW SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-10 KT FROM THE WSW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 20Z-01Z THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO VEER TO WNW AND INCREASE INTO THE 8-14
KT RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 4500-7000 FT AND TOPS BETWEEN 9-15
THOUSAND FT - THE DEEPEST OF WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE - WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
PASSING FRONT...WITH THE RELATIVE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCE
OF A SHOWER AT KRDU AND KRWI. A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH
AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT AND WED WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LOW VFR CEILINGS
(BETWEEN 3500-5000 FT) AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY AT KRWI
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST WILL PRODUCE NW SURFACE WINDS IN
THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS WED...AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE ON THU.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211146
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
746 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL (AOA 9-10
THOUSAND FT) CLOUD BAND AND VIRGA - OR ISOLATED SPRINKLE AT THE
SURFACE - WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH 12Z. SKIES WILL
CONSEQUENTLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID-
MORNING...WHICH WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE ORIONID
METEOR SHOWER IN THE COUPLE HOURS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SHARPLY
SSE FROM NORTHERN MI AT 07Z TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THIS
EVENING...THEN ULTIMATELY CULMINATE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY WED. A PRECEDING
SURFACE COLD FRONT...ANALYZED FROM WESTERN NY TO NORTHERN AR AT
07Z...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PRECEDING THE FRONT...AND A WEST TO NW
DOWNSLOPE WIND AHEAD AND BEHIND IT...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 70S OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TO UPPER 70S OVER EASTERN
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED
OVERALL...THE FORMER CONFINED TO A THIN LAYER BETWEEN 850-750 MB AND
THE LATTER AOB 150 J/KG PER BUFR SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBABILITIES...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AMIDST FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT
LATE IN THE DAY MAY SUPPORT A BAND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...WHERE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND DEEPER LIFT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT.  ANY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST AND/OR DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY EVENING.

TONIGHT: THE CENTER OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 M/12 HR...WILL CROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWFA AS
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
POOL/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A RENEWED CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES OR LIGH RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. DRY AND VARIABLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. LOWS
MOSTLY 45 TO 50 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...

THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND DELMARVA ON
WED...THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT AND
BEYOND. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN BY ABOUT
10 MB (FROM JUST UNDER 1010 MB TO JUST UNDER 1000 MB) FROM 12Z WED
TO 12Z THU...AS IT TOO LIFTS UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES/STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW...THE FORMER IN EXCESS OF MINUS 20 C AND THE LATTER
BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM...WILL CONSEQUENTLY BRUSH THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...AND RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
"INSTABILITY" SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL
OTHERWISE BE COOLER AND BREEZY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY DAYTIME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OWING TO THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW...AND HIGHS IN
THE 60S. CLEARING AND SIMILARLY COOLER WED NIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BETWEEN THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1335M THURSDAY MORNING...AND FULL INSOLATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 63-68 RANGE.  THE ALREADY
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND
CROSSES NC FRIDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THOUGH ITS NOT
CLEAR HOW THICK THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE.  HAVE NUDGED THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S.  HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MUCH MORE COMPACT AND CLOSED OFF WAVE
WITH A STRONG SHOT OF DCVA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH NO QPF EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC.
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO KEEP A
POTENTIAL (SUB)TROPICAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THUS THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES...THE ECMWF AND GFS ROUGHLY AGREE
THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...WITH
THICKNESSES CLIMBING BACK TOWARD 1370M...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM TUESDAY...

A LIGHT SSW SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 5-10 KT FROM THE WSW
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 20Z-01Z THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO VEER TO WNW AND INCREASE INTO THE 8-14
KT RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 4500-7000 FT AND TOPS BETWEEN 9-15
THOUSAND FT - THE DEEPEST OF WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE - WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
PASSING FRONT...WITH THE RELATIVE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCE
OF A SHOWER AT KRDU AND KRWI. A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH
AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT AND WED WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LOW VFR CEILINGS
(BETWEEN 3500-5000 FT) AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY AT KRWI
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST WILL PRODUCE NW SURFACE WINDS IN
THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS WED...AND TO A LESSER
DEGREE ON THU.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 210740
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
340 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL (AOA 9-10
THOUSAND FT) CLOUD BAND AND VIRGA - OR ISOLATED SPRINKLE AT THE
SURFACE - WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH 12Z. SKIES WILL
CONSEQUENTLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID-
MORNING...WHICH WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE ORIONID
METEOR SHOWER IN THE COUPLE HOURS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SHARPLY
SSE FROM NORTHERN MI AT 07Z TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THIS
EVENING...THEN ULTIMATELY CULMINATE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY WED. A PRECEDING
SURFACE COLD FRONT...ANALYZED FROM WESTERN NY TO NORTHERN AR AT
07Z...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PRECEDING THE FRONT...AND A WEST TO NW
DOWNSLOPE WIND AHEAD AND BEHIND IT...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 70S OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TO UPPER 70S OVER EASTERN
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED
OVERALL...THE FORMER CONFINED TO A THIN LAYER BETWEEN 850-750 MB AND
THE LATTER AOB 150 J/KG PER BUFR SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBABILITIES...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AMIDST FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT
LATE IN THE DAY MAY SUPPORT A BAND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...WHERE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND DEEPER LIFT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT.  ANY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST AND/OR DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY EVENING.

TONIGHT: THE CENTER OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 M/12 HR...WILL CROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWFA AS
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
POOL/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A RENEWED CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES OR LIGH RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. DRY AND VARIABLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. LOWS
MOSTLY 45 TO 50 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...

THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND DELMARVA ON
WED...THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT AND
BEYOND. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN BY ABOUT
10 MB (FROM JUST UNDER 1010 MB TO JUST UNDER 1000 MB) FROM 12Z WED
TO 12Z THU...AS IT TOO LIFTS UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES/STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW...THE FORMER IN EXCESS OF MINUS 20 C AND THE LATTER
BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM...WILL CONSEQUENTLY BRUSH THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...AND RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
"INSTABILITY" SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL
OTHERWISE BE COOLER AND BREEZY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY DAYTIME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OWING TO THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW...AND HIGHS IN
THE 60S. CLEARING AND SIMILARLY COOLER WED NIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BETWEEN THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1335M THURSDAY MORNING...AND FULL INSOLATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 63-68 RANGE.  THE ALREADY
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND
CROSSES NC FRIDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THOUGH ITS NOT
CLEAR HOW THICK THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE.  HAVE NUDGED THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S.  HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MUCH MORE COMPACT AND CLOSED OFF WAVE
WITH A STRONG SHOT OF DCVA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH NO QPF EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC.
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO KEEP A
POTENTIAL (SUB)TROPICAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THUS THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES...THE ECMWF AND GFS ROUGHLY AGREE
THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...WITH
THICKNESSES CLIMBING BACK TOWARD 1370M...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM TUESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND AND VIRGA -
OR ISOLATED SPRINKLES AT THE SURFACE - WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THROUGH 10Z. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT SSW SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 5-10 KT FROM THE WSW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 20Z-01Z THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO VEER
TO WNW AND INCREASE INTO THE 8-14 KT RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE
MID-UPPER TEENS KTS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN
4500-7000 FT AND TOPS BETWEEN 9-13 THOUSAND FT - THE DEEPEST OF
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE - WILL
ALSO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE PASSING FRONT...WITH THE
RELATIVE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT KRDU AND
KRWI. A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO
THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT AND WED WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LOW VFR CEILINGS
(BETWEEN 3500-5000 FT) AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM KRDU AND
KRWI NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST WILL PRODUCE NW SURFACE
WINDS IN THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS WED...AND TO
A LESSER DEGREE ON THU.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 210740
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
340 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL (AOA 9-10
THOUSAND FT) CLOUD BAND AND VIRGA - OR ISOLATED SPRINKLE AT THE
SURFACE - WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH 12Z. SKIES WILL
CONSEQUENTLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID-
MORNING...WHICH WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE ORIONID
METEOR SHOWER IN THE COUPLE HOURS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SHARPLY
SSE FROM NORTHERN MI AT 07Z TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THIS
EVENING...THEN ULTIMATELY CULMINATE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY WED. A PRECEDING
SURFACE COLD FRONT...ANALYZED FROM WESTERN NY TO NORTHERN AR AT
07Z...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PRECEDING THE FRONT...AND A WEST TO NW
DOWNSLOPE WIND AHEAD AND BEHIND IT...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 70S OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TO UPPER 70S OVER EASTERN
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED
OVERALL...THE FORMER CONFINED TO A THIN LAYER BETWEEN 850-750 MB AND
THE LATTER AOB 150 J/KG PER BUFR SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBABILITIES...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AMIDST FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT
LATE IN THE DAY MAY SUPPORT A BAND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...WHERE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND DEEPER LIFT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT.  ANY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST AND/OR DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY EVENING.

TONIGHT: THE CENTER OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 M/12 HR...WILL CROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWFA AS
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
POOL/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A RENEWED CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES OR LIGH RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. DRY AND VARIABLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. LOWS
MOSTLY 45 TO 50 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...

THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND DELMARVA ON
WED...THEN LIFT SLOWLY UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WED NIGHT AND
BEYOND. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN BY ABOUT
10 MB (FROM JUST UNDER 1010 MB TO JUST UNDER 1000 MB) FROM 12Z WED
TO 12Z THU...AS IT TOO LIFTS UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES/STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW...THE FORMER IN EXCESS OF MINUS 20 C AND THE LATTER
BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM...WILL CONSEQUENTLY BRUSH THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT
AND NORTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN...AND RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
"INSTABILITY" SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL
OTHERWISE BE COOLER AND BREEZY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY DAYTIME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OWING TO THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW...AND HIGHS IN
THE 60S. CLEARING AND SIMILARLY COOLER WED NIGHT...WITH LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BETWEEN THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1335M THURSDAY MORNING...AND FULL INSOLATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 63-68 RANGE.  THE ALREADY
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND
CROSSES NC FRIDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THOUGH ITS NOT
CLEAR HOW THICK THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE.  HAVE NUDGED THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S.  HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MUCH MORE COMPACT AND CLOSED OFF WAVE
WITH A STRONG SHOT OF DCVA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH NO QPF EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC.
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO KEEP A
POTENTIAL (SUB)TROPICAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THUS THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES...THE ECMWF AND GFS ROUGHLY AGREE
THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...WITH
THICKNESSES CLIMBING BACK TOWARD 1370M...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM TUESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND AND VIRGA -
OR ISOLATED SPRINKLES AT THE SURFACE - WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THROUGH 10Z. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT SSW SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 5-10 KT FROM THE WSW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 20Z-01Z THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO VEER
TO WNW AND INCREASE INTO THE 8-14 KT RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE
MID-UPPER TEENS KTS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN
4500-7000 FT AND TOPS BETWEEN 9-13 THOUSAND FT - THE DEEPEST OF
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE - WILL
ALSO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE PASSING FRONT...WITH THE
RELATIVE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT KRDU AND
KRWI. A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO
THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT AND WED WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LOW VFR CEILINGS
(BETWEEN 3500-5000 FT) AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM KRDU AND
KRWI NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST WILL PRODUCE NW SURFACE
WINDS IN THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS WED...AND TO
A LESSER DEGREE ON THU.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 210731
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL (AOA 9-10
THOUSAND FT) CLOUD BAND AND VIRGA - OR ISOLATED SPRINKLE AT THE
SURFACE - WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH 12Z. SKIES WILL
CONSEQUENTLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID-
MORNING...WHICH WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE ORIONID
METEOR SHOWER IN THE COUPLE HOURS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SHARPLY
SSE FROM NORTHERN MI AT 07Z TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THIS
EVENING...THEN ULTIMATELY CULMINATE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY WED. A PRECEDING
SURFACE COLD FRONT...ANALYZED FROM WESTERN NY TO NORTHERN AR AT
07Z...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PRECEDING THE FRONT...AND A WEST TO NW
DOWNSLOPE WIND AHEAD AND BEHIND IT...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 70S OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TO UPPER 70S OVER EASTERN
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED
OVERALL...THE FORMER CONFINED TO A THIN LAYER BETWEEN 850-750 MB AND
THE LATTER AOB 150 J/KG PER BUFR SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBABILITIES...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AMIDST FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT
LATE IN THE DAY MAY SUPPORT A BAND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...WHERE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND DEEPER LIFT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT.  ANY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST AND/OR DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY EVENING.

TONIGHT: THE CENTER OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 M/12 HR...WILL CROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWFA AS
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
POOL/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A RENEWED CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES OR LIGH RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. DRY AND VARIABLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. LOWS
MOSTLY 45 TO 50 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SE FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.
THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WLY FLOW PROCEEDING THE FRONT WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN FACT MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
A 5K FT LAYER BETWEEN 850-700MB. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA...MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN.

WEST-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL INITIALLY BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF NW LOW LEVEL WIND
THOUGH AS SFC WINDS VEER TO A NLY DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BE REALIZED. MIN TEMPS MID
40S NW TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BETWEEN THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1335M THURSDAY MORNING...AND FULL INSOLATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 63-68 RANGE.  THE ALREADY
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND
CROSSES NC FRIDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THOUGH ITS NOT
CLEAR HOW THICK THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE.  HAVE NUDGED THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S.  HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MUCH MORE COMPACT AND CLOSED OFF WAVE
WITH A STRONG SHOT OF DCVA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH NO QPF EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC.
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO KEEP A
POTENTIAL (SUB)TROPICAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THUS THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES...THE ECMWF AND GFS ROUGHLY AGREE
THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...WITH
THICKNESSES CLIMBING BACK TOWARD 1370M...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM TUESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND AND VIRGA -
OR ISOLATED SPRINKLES AT THE SURFACE - WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THROUGH 10Z. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT SSW SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 5-10 KT FROM THE WSW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 20Z-01Z THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO VEER
TO WNW AND INCREASE INTO THE 8-14 KT RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE
MID-UPPER TEENS KTS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN
4500-7000 FT AND TOPS BETWEEN 9-13 THOUSAND FT - THE DEEPEST OF
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE - WILL
ALSO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE PASSING FRONT...WITH THE
RELATIVE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT KRDU AND
KRWI. A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO
THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT AND WED WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LOW VFR CEILINGS
(BETWEEN 3500-5000 FT) AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM KRDU AND
KRWI NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST WILL PRODUCE NW SURFACE
WINDS IN THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS WED...AND TO
A LESSER DEGREE ON THU.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 210731
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL (AOA 9-10
THOUSAND FT) CLOUD BAND AND VIRGA - OR ISOLATED SPRINKLE AT THE
SURFACE - WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH 12Z. SKIES WILL
CONSEQUENTLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID-
MORNING...WHICH WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE ORIONID
METEOR SHOWER IN THE COUPLE HOURS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK OVER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES.

ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SHARPLY
SSE FROM NORTHERN MI AT 07Z TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THIS
EVENING...THEN ULTIMATELY CULMINATE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY WED. A PRECEDING
SURFACE COLD FRONT...ANALYZED FROM WESTERN NY TO NORTHERN AR AT
07Z...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PRECEDING THE FRONT...AND A WEST TO NW
DOWNSLOPE WIND AHEAD AND BEHIND IT...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 70S OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT TO UPPER 70S OVER EASTERN
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED
OVERALL...THE FORMER CONFINED TO A THIN LAYER BETWEEN 850-750 MB AND
THE LATTER AOB 150 J/KG PER BUFR SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBABILITIES...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AMIDST FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT
LATE IN THE DAY MAY SUPPORT A BAND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...WHERE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND DEEPER LIFT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT.  ANY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST AND/OR DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY EVENING.

TONIGHT: THE CENTER OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE
ORDER OF 100 M/12 HR...WILL CROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWFA AS
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SSE OVERNIGHT. THIS
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
POOL/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A RENEWED CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES OR LIGH RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. DRY AND VARIABLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. LOWS
MOSTLY 45 TO 50 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SE FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.
THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WLY FLOW PROCEEDING THE FRONT WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN FACT MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
A 5K FT LAYER BETWEEN 850-700MB. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA...MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN.

WEST-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL INITIALLY BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF NW LOW LEVEL WIND
THOUGH AS SFC WINDS VEER TO A NLY DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BE REALIZED. MIN TEMPS MID
40S NW TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BETWEEN THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1335M THURSDAY MORNING...AND FULL INSOLATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 63-68 RANGE.  THE ALREADY
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND
CROSSES NC FRIDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THOUGH ITS NOT
CLEAR HOW THICK THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE.  HAVE NUDGED THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S.  HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MUCH MORE COMPACT AND CLOSED OFF WAVE
WITH A STRONG SHOT OF DCVA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH NO QPF EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC.
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO KEEP A
POTENTIAL (SUB)TROPICAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THUS THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES...THE ECMWF AND GFS ROUGHLY AGREE
THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...WITH
THICKNESSES CLIMBING BACK TOWARD 1370M...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM TUESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND AND VIRGA -
OR ISOLATED SPRINKLES AT THE SURFACE - WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THROUGH 10Z. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT SSW SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 5-10 KT FROM THE WSW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 20Z-01Z THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO VEER
TO WNW AND INCREASE INTO THE 8-14 KT RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE
MID-UPPER TEENS KTS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN
4500-7000 FT AND TOPS BETWEEN 9-13 THOUSAND FT - THE DEEPEST OF
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE - WILL
ALSO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE PASSING FRONT...WITH THE
RELATIVE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT KRDU AND
KRWI. A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO
THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT AND WED WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LOW VFR CEILINGS
(BETWEEN 3500-5000 FT) AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM KRDU AND
KRWI NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST WILL PRODUCE NW SURFACE
WINDS IN THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS WED...AND TO
A LESSER DEGREE ON THU.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 210722
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM MONDAY...

S/W ENERGY MOVING THROUGH AN AMPLIFYING L/W TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. IS HELPING TO PRODUCE A SMALL BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
AND/OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING... ALONG
WITH INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THUS... HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT FOR THIE EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING (MOST SITES
ONLY WITH TRACE AMOUNTS THOUGH... THUS... KEEPING POPS LOW THOUGH).
THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL
NC BY AROUND DAYBREAK... YIELDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THEN. GIVEN
THE ADDED CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT... AND ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THE REGION... WE SHOULD SEE LOW TEMPS A BIT
WARMER TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S... WITH
PERHAPS SOME LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SE FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.
THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WLY FLOW PROCEEDING THE FRONT WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN FACT MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
A 5K FT LAYER BETWEEN 850-700MB. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA...MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN.

WEST-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL INITIALLY BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF NW LOW LEVEL WIND
THOUGH AS SFC WINDS VEER TO A NLY DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BE REALIZED. MIN TEMPS MID
40S NW TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BETWEEN THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1335M THURSDAY MORNING...AND FULL INSOLATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 63-68 RANGE.  THE ALREADY
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND
CROSSES NC FRIDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THOUGH ITS NOT
CLEAR HOW THICK THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE.  HAVE NUDGED THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S.  HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MUCH MORE COMPACT AND CLOSED OFF WAVE
WITH A STRONG SHOT OF DCVA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH NO QPF EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC.
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO KEEP A
POTENTIAL (SUB)TROPICAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THUS THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES...THE ECMWF AND GFS ROUGHLY AGREE
THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...WITH
THICKNESSES CLIMBING BACK TOWARD 1370M...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM TUESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND AND VIRGA -
OR ISOLATED SPRINKLES AT THE SURFACE - WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THROUGH 10Z. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT SSW SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 5-10 KT FROM THE WSW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 20Z-01Z THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO VEER
TO WNW AND INCREASE INTO THE 8-14 KT RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE
MID-UPPER TEENS KTS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN
4500-7000 FT AND TOPS BETWEEN 9-13 THOUSAND FT - THE DEEPEST OF
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE - WILL
ALSO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE PASSING FRONT...WITH THE
RELATIVE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT KRDU AND
KRWI. A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO
THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT AND WED WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LOW VFR CEILINGS
(BETWEEN 3500-5000 FT) AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM KRDU AND
KRWI NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST WILL PRODUCE NW SURFACE
WINDS IN THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS WED...AND TO
A LESSER DEGREE ON THU.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 210722
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM MONDAY...

S/W ENERGY MOVING THROUGH AN AMPLIFYING L/W TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. IS HELPING TO PRODUCE A SMALL BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
AND/OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING... ALONG
WITH INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THUS... HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT FOR THIE EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING (MOST SITES
ONLY WITH TRACE AMOUNTS THOUGH... THUS... KEEPING POPS LOW THOUGH).
THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL
NC BY AROUND DAYBREAK... YIELDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THEN. GIVEN
THE ADDED CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT... AND ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THE REGION... WE SHOULD SEE LOW TEMPS A BIT
WARMER TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S... WITH
PERHAPS SOME LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SE FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.
THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WLY FLOW PROCEEDING THE FRONT WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN FACT MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
A 5K FT LAYER BETWEEN 850-700MB. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA...MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN.

WEST-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL INITIALLY BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF NW LOW LEVEL WIND
THOUGH AS SFC WINDS VEER TO A NLY DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BE REALIZED. MIN TEMPS MID
40S NW TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...

DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BETWEEN THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1335M THURSDAY MORNING...AND FULL INSOLATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 63-68 RANGE.  THE ALREADY
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND
CROSSES NC FRIDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER JET
STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THOUGH ITS NOT
CLEAR HOW THICK THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE.  HAVE NUDGED THURSDAY NIGHT
LOWS UP A COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE MID 40S.  HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MUCH MORE COMPACT AND CLOSED OFF WAVE
WITH A STRONG SHOT OF DCVA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH NO QPF EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC.
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO KEEP A
POTENTIAL (SUB)TROPICAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THUS THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES...THE ECMWF AND GFS ROUGHLY AGREE
THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US...WITH
THICKNESSES CLIMBING BACK TOWARD 1370M...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM TUESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND AND VIRGA -
OR ISOLATED SPRINKLES AT THE SURFACE - WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THROUGH 10Z. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT SSW SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 5-10 KT FROM THE WSW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 20Z-01Z THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO VEER
TO WNW AND INCREASE INTO THE 8-14 KT RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE
MID-UPPER TEENS KTS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN
4500-7000 FT AND TOPS BETWEEN 9-13 THOUSAND FT - THE DEEPEST OF
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE - WILL
ALSO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE PASSING FRONT...WITH THE
RELATIVE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT KRDU AND
KRWI. A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO
THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT AND WED WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LOW VFR CEILINGS
(BETWEEN 3500-5000 FT) AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM KRDU AND
KRWI NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST WILL PRODUCE NW SURFACE
WINDS IN THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS WED...AND TO
A LESSER DEGREE ON THU.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 210613
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
213 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM MONDAY...

S/W ENERGY MOVING THROUGH AN AMPLIFYING L/W TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. IS HELPING TO PRODUCE A SMALL BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
AND/OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING... ALONG
WITH INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THUS... HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT FOR THIE EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING (MOST SITES
ONLY WITH TRACE AMOUNTS THOUGH... THUS... KEEPING POPS LOW THOUGH).
THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL
NC BY AROUND DAYBREAK... YIELDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THEN. GIVEN
THE ADDED CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT... AND ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THE REGION... WE SHOULD SEE LOW TEMPS A BIT
WARMER TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S... WITH
PERHAPS SOME LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SE FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.
THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WLY FLOW PROCEEDING THE FRONT WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN FACT MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
A 5K FT LAYER BETWEEN 850-700MB. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA...MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN.

WEST-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL INITIALLY BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF NW LOW LEVEL WIND
THOUGH AS SFC WINDS VEER TO A NLY DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BE REALIZED. MIN TEMPS MID
40S NW TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM MONDAY...

THE LOW JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST...LINGERING OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN NW FLOW OVER THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING ALOFT AND
THE LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO CENTRAL NC...THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR OVER
THE AREA SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE...RESULTING IN THE
BEST CHANCES FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE OR TWO...BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO ONE
ANOTHER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. AS THE MAIN LOW LIFTS NORTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA...A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SSE OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT TRAVERSES
THE REGION GIVEN THE CONTINUED LACK OF ANY DEEP MOISTURE AND
PERSISTENT NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM TUESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND AND VIRGA -
OR ISOLATED SPRINKLES AT THE SURFACE - WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THROUGH 10Z. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT SSW SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 5-10 KT FROM THE WSW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 20Z-01Z THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO VEER
TO WNW AND INCREASE INTO THE 8-14 KT RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE
MID-UPPER TEENS KTS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN
4500-7000 FT AND TOPS BETWEEN 9-13 THOUSAND FT - THE DEEPEST OF
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE - WILL
ALSO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE PASSING FRONT...WITH THE
RELATIVE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT KRDU AND
KRWI. A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO
THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT AND WED WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LOW VFR CEILINGS
(BETWEEN 3500-5000 FT) AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM KRDU AND
KRWI NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST WILL PRODUCE NW SURFACE
WINDS IN THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS WED...AND TO
A LESSER DEGREE ON THU.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 210613
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
213 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM MONDAY...

S/W ENERGY MOVING THROUGH AN AMPLIFYING L/W TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. IS HELPING TO PRODUCE A SMALL BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
AND/OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING... ALONG
WITH INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THUS... HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT FOR THIE EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING (MOST SITES
ONLY WITH TRACE AMOUNTS THOUGH... THUS... KEEPING POPS LOW THOUGH).
THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL
NC BY AROUND DAYBREAK... YIELDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THEN. GIVEN
THE ADDED CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT... AND ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THE REGION... WE SHOULD SEE LOW TEMPS A BIT
WARMER TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S... WITH
PERHAPS SOME LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SE FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.
THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WLY FLOW PROCEEDING THE FRONT WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN FACT MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
A 5K FT LAYER BETWEEN 850-700MB. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA...MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN.

WEST-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL INITIALLY BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF NW LOW LEVEL WIND
THOUGH AS SFC WINDS VEER TO A NLY DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BE REALIZED. MIN TEMPS MID
40S NW TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM MONDAY...

THE LOW JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST...LINGERING OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN NW FLOW OVER THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING ALOFT AND
THE LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO CENTRAL NC...THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR OVER
THE AREA SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE...RESULTING IN THE
BEST CHANCES FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE OR TWO...BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO ONE
ANOTHER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. AS THE MAIN LOW LIFTS NORTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA...A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SSE OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT TRAVERSES
THE REGION GIVEN THE CONTINUED LACK OF ANY DEEP MOISTURE AND
PERSISTENT NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM TUESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND AND VIRGA -
OR ISOLATED SPRINKLES AT THE SURFACE - WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THROUGH 10Z. OTHERWISE...A LIGHT SSW SURFACE WIND WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 5-10 KT FROM THE WSW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 20Z-01Z THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO VEER
TO WNW AND INCREASE INTO THE 8-14 KT RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS INTO THE
MID-UPPER TEENS KTS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN
4500-7000 FT AND TOPS BETWEEN 9-13 THOUSAND FT - THE DEEPEST OF
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE - WILL
ALSO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE PASSING FRONT...WITH THE
RELATIVE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCE OF A SHOWER AT KRDU AND
KRWI. A STEADY WNW TO NW SURFACE WIND...WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO
THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS...WILL CONTINUE AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT AND WED WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LOW VFR CEILINGS
(BETWEEN 3500-5000 FT) AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM KRDU AND
KRWI NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST WILL PRODUCE NW SURFACE
WINDS IN THE LOW-MID TEENS KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS WED...AND TO
A LESSER DEGREE ON THU.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 210210
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1009 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE ALONG WITH A PRECEDING SURFACE COLD
FRONT...THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE AND
TUE NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM MONDAY...

S/W ENERGY MOVING THROUGH AN AMPLIFYING L/W TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. IS HELPING TO PRODUCE A SMALL BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
AND/OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING... ALONG
WITH INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THUS... HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT FOR THIE EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING (MOST SITES
ONLY WITH TRACE AMOUNTS THOUGH... THUS... KEEPING POPS LOW THOUGH).
THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL
NC BY AROUND DAYBREAK... YIELDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THEN. GIVEN
THE ADDED CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT... AND ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THE REGION... WE SHOULD SEE LOW TEMPS A BIT
WARMER TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S... WITH
PERHAPS SOME LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SE FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.
THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WLY FLOW PROCEEDING THE FRONT WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN FACT MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
A 5K FT LAYER BETWEEN 850-700MB. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA...MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN.

WEST-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL INITIALLY BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF NW LOW LEVEL WIND
THOUGH AS SFC WINDS VEER TO A NLY DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BE REALIZED. MIN TEMPS MID
40S NW TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM MONDAY...

THE LOW JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST...LINGERING OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN NW FLOW OVER THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING ALOFT AND
THE LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO CENTRAL NC...THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR OVER
THE AREA SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE...RESULTING IN THE
BEST CHANCES FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE OR TWO...BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO ONE
ANOTHER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. AS THE MAIN LOW LIFTS NORTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA...A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SSE OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT TRAVERSES
THE REGION GIVEN THE CONTINUED LACK OF ANY DEEP MOISTURE AND
PERSISTENT NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 723 PM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
TRAVERSE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL
BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 15
TO 18KTS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AT KGSO AND KINT.


BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NW WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BIT
BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...CBL/WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 210210
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1009 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE ALONG WITH A PRECEDING SURFACE COLD
FRONT...THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE AND
TUE NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM MONDAY...

S/W ENERGY MOVING THROUGH AN AMPLIFYING L/W TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. IS HELPING TO PRODUCE A SMALL BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
AND/OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING... ALONG
WITH INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THUS... HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT FOR THIE EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING (MOST SITES
ONLY WITH TRACE AMOUNTS THOUGH... THUS... KEEPING POPS LOW THOUGH).
THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL
NC BY AROUND DAYBREAK... YIELDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THEN. GIVEN
THE ADDED CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT... AND ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THE REGION... WE SHOULD SEE LOW TEMPS A BIT
WARMER TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S... WITH
PERHAPS SOME LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SE FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.
THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WLY FLOW PROCEEDING THE FRONT WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN FACT MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
A 5K FT LAYER BETWEEN 850-700MB. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA...MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN.

WEST-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL INITIALLY BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF NW LOW LEVEL WIND
THOUGH AS SFC WINDS VEER TO A NLY DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BE REALIZED. MIN TEMPS MID
40S NW TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM MONDAY...

THE LOW JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST...LINGERING OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN NW FLOW OVER THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING ALOFT AND
THE LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO CENTRAL NC...THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR OVER
THE AREA SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE...RESULTING IN THE
BEST CHANCES FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE OR TWO...BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO ONE
ANOTHER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. AS THE MAIN LOW LIFTS NORTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA...A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SSE OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT TRAVERSES
THE REGION GIVEN THE CONTINUED LACK OF ANY DEEP MOISTURE AND
PERSISTENT NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 723 PM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
TRAVERSE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL
BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 15
TO 18KTS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AT KGSO AND KINT.


BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NW WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BIT
BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...CBL/WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 210210
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1009 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE ALONG WITH A PRECEDING SURFACE COLD
FRONT...THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE AND
TUE NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM MONDAY...

S/W ENERGY MOVING THROUGH AN AMPLIFYING L/W TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. IS HELPING TO PRODUCE A SMALL BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
AND/OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING... ALONG
WITH INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THUS... HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT FOR THIE EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING (MOST SITES
ONLY WITH TRACE AMOUNTS THOUGH... THUS... KEEPING POPS LOW THOUGH).
THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL
NC BY AROUND DAYBREAK... YIELDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THEN. GIVEN
THE ADDED CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT... AND ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THE REGION... WE SHOULD SEE LOW TEMPS A BIT
WARMER TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S... WITH
PERHAPS SOME LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SE FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.
THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WLY FLOW PROCEEDING THE FRONT WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN FACT MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
A 5K FT LAYER BETWEEN 850-700MB. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA...MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN.

WEST-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL INITIALLY BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF NW LOW LEVEL WIND
THOUGH AS SFC WINDS VEER TO A NLY DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BE REALIZED. MIN TEMPS MID
40S NW TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM MONDAY...

THE LOW JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST...LINGERING OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN NW FLOW OVER THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING ALOFT AND
THE LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO CENTRAL NC...THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR OVER
THE AREA SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE...RESULTING IN THE
BEST CHANCES FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE OR TWO...BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO ONE
ANOTHER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. AS THE MAIN LOW LIFTS NORTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA...A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SSE OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT TRAVERSES
THE REGION GIVEN THE CONTINUED LACK OF ANY DEEP MOISTURE AND
PERSISTENT NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 723 PM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
TRAVERSE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL
BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 15
TO 18KTS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AT KGSO AND KINT.


BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NW WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BIT
BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...CBL/WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 210210
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1009 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE ALONG WITH A PRECEDING SURFACE COLD
FRONT...THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE AND
TUE NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM MONDAY...

S/W ENERGY MOVING THROUGH AN AMPLIFYING L/W TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. IS HELPING TO PRODUCE A SMALL BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
AND/OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING... ALONG
WITH INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THUS... HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT FOR THIE EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING (MOST SITES
ONLY WITH TRACE AMOUNTS THOUGH... THUS... KEEPING POPS LOW THOUGH).
THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL
NC BY AROUND DAYBREAK... YIELDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THEN. GIVEN
THE ADDED CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT... AND ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THE REGION... WE SHOULD SEE LOW TEMPS A BIT
WARMER TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S... WITH
PERHAPS SOME LOWS AROUND 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SE FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.
THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WLY FLOW PROCEEDING THE FRONT WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN FACT MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
A 5K FT LAYER BETWEEN 850-700MB. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA...MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN.

WEST-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL INITIALLY BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF NW LOW LEVEL WIND
THOUGH AS SFC WINDS VEER TO A NLY DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BE REALIZED. MIN TEMPS MID
40S NW TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM MONDAY...

THE LOW JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST...LINGERING OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN NW FLOW OVER THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING ALOFT AND
THE LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO CENTRAL NC...THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR OVER
THE AREA SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE...RESULTING IN THE
BEST CHANCES FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE OR TWO...BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO ONE
ANOTHER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. AS THE MAIN LOW LIFTS NORTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA...A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SSE OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT TRAVERSES
THE REGION GIVEN THE CONTINUED LACK OF ANY DEEP MOISTURE AND
PERSISTENT NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 723 PM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
TRAVERSE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL
BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 15
TO 18KTS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AT KGSO AND KINT.


BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NW WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BIT
BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...CBL/WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 202322
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
723 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE ALONG WITH A PRECEDING SURFACE COLD
FRONT...THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE AND
TUE NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

A PAIR OF S/WS DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF A L/W TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS-NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL INCREASE MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. MOST OF THE LIFT
ATTRIBUTED TO WARM AIR ADVECTION BETWEEN 10K-18K FT. DUE TO A DRY
AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER...EXPECT NOTHING WORSE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES (IF EVEN THAT) NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64. THE VARIABLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. MIN TEMPS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
MID 40S PROBABLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SE FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.
THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WLY FLOW PROCEEDING THE FRONT WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN FACT MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
A 5K FT LAYER BETWEEN 850-700MB. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA...MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN.

WEST-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL INITIALLY BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF NW LOW LEVEL WIND
THOUGH AS SFC WINDS VEER TO A NLY DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BE REALIZED. MIN TEMPS MID
40S NW TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM MONDAY...

THE LOW JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST...LINGERING OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN NW FLOW OVER THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING ALOFT AND
THE LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO CENTRAL NC...THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR OVER
THE AREA SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE...RESULTING IN THE
BEST CHANCES FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE OR TWO...BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO ONE
ANOTHER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. AS THE MAIN LOW LIFTS NORTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA...A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SSE OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT TRAVERSES
THE REGION GIVEN THE CONTINUED LACK OF ANY DEEP MOISTURE AND
PERSISTENT NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 723 PM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
TRAVERSE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL
BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 15
TO 18KTS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AT KGSO AND KINT.


BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NW WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BIT
BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...CBL/WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 202322
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
723 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE ALONG WITH A PRECEDING SURFACE COLD
FRONT...THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE AND
TUE NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

A PAIR OF S/WS DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF A L/W TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS-NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL INCREASE MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. MOST OF THE LIFT
ATTRIBUTED TO WARM AIR ADVECTION BETWEEN 10K-18K FT. DUE TO A DRY
AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER...EXPECT NOTHING WORSE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES (IF EVEN THAT) NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64. THE VARIABLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. MIN TEMPS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
MID 40S PROBABLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SE FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.
THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WLY FLOW PROCEEDING THE FRONT WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN FACT MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
A 5K FT LAYER BETWEEN 850-700MB. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA...MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN.

WEST-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL INITIALLY BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF NW LOW LEVEL WIND
THOUGH AS SFC WINDS VEER TO A NLY DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BE REALIZED. MIN TEMPS MID
40S NW TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM MONDAY...

THE LOW JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST...LINGERING OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN NW FLOW OVER THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING ALOFT AND
THE LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO CENTRAL NC...THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR OVER
THE AREA SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE...RESULTING IN THE
BEST CHANCES FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE OR TWO...BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO ONE
ANOTHER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. AS THE MAIN LOW LIFTS NORTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA...A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SSE OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT TRAVERSES
THE REGION GIVEN THE CONTINUED LACK OF ANY DEEP MOISTURE AND
PERSISTENT NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 723 PM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
TRAVERSE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL
BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 15
TO 18KTS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AT KGSO AND KINT.


BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NW WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BIT
BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...CBL/WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 201914
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE ALONG WITH A PRECEDING SURFACE COLD
FRONT...THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE AND
TUE NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

A PAIR OF S/WS DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF A L/W TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS-NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL INCREASE MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. MOST OF THE LIFT
ATTRIBUTED TO WARM AIR ADVECTION BETWEEN 10K-18K FT. DUE TO A DRY
AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER...EXPECT NOTHING WORSE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES (IF EVEN THAT) NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64. THE VARIABLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. MIN TEMPS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
MID 40S PROBABLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SE FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.
THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WLY FLOW PROCEEDING THE FRONT WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN FACT MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
A 5K FT LAYER BETWEEN 850-700MB. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA...MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN.

WEST-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL INITIALLY BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF NW LOW LEVEL WIND
THOUGH AS SFC WINDS VEER TO A NLY DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BE REALIZED. MIN TEMPS MID
40S NW TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM MONDAY...

THE LOW JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST...LINGERING OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN NW FLOW OVER THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING ALOFT AND
THE LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO CENTRAL NC...THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR OVER
THE AREA SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE...RESULTING IN THE
BEST CHANCES FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE OR TWO...BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO ONE
ANOTHER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. AS THE MAIN LOW LIFTS NORTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA...A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SSE OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT TRAVERSES
THE REGION GIVEN THE CONTINUED LACK OF ANY DEEP MOISTURE AND
PERSISTENT NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 121 PM MONDAY...

A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL RESIDE OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE DISTURBANCES
WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A TAD BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY SUNSET.

THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NW WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BIT
BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS PROBABLE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ORIENTATED CLOSER TO CENTRAL NC
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LEADING TO LIGHTER SFC WINDS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 201914
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS....A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE ALONG WITH A PRECEDING SURFACE COLD
FRONT...THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE AND
TUE NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

A PAIR OF S/WS DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF A L/W TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS-NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL INCREASE MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. MOST OF THE LIFT
ATTRIBUTED TO WARM AIR ADVECTION BETWEEN 10K-18K FT. DUE TO A DRY
AIR MASS IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER...EXPECT NOTHING WORSE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES (IF EVEN THAT) NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64. THE VARIABLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL YIELD MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. MIN TEMPS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 WITH
MID 40S PROBABLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM MONDAY...

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SE FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.
THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WLY FLOW PROCEEDING THE FRONT WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN FACT MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
A 5K FT LAYER BETWEEN 850-700MB. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA...MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT SEE ANY
RAIN.

WEST-SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL INITIALLY BE OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF NW LOW LEVEL WIND
THOUGH AS SFC WINDS VEER TO A NLY DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL BE REALIZED. MIN TEMPS MID
40S NW TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM MONDAY...

THE LOW JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST...LINGERING OVER THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY
PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK...RESULTING IN NW FLOW OVER THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING ALOFT AND
THE LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO CENTRAL NC...THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR OVER
THE AREA SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE...RESULTING IN THE
BEST CHANCES FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SPRINKLE OR TWO...BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO ONE
ANOTHER BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. AS THE MAIN LOW LIFTS NORTH AWAY
FROM THE AREA...A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SSE OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT TRAVERSES
THE REGION GIVEN THE CONTINUED LACK OF ANY DEEP MOISTURE AND
PERSISTENT NW FLOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 121 PM MONDAY...

A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL RESIDE OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE DISTURBANCES
WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A TAD BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY SUNSET.

THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NW WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BIT
BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS PROBABLE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ORIENTATED CLOSER TO CENTRAL NC
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LEADING TO LIGHTER SFC WINDS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 201720
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
121 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER ONE - AND PRECEDING SURFACE COLD FRONT - THAT WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM MONDAY...

SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NC WILL DRIFT EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RETURN LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO
OUR REGION. ALOFT...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC...EXITING OUR
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PATCHY CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE REPLACED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SUNSHINE AND THE SFC SWLY FLOW WILL PUSH
TEMPS TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
-WSS

TONIGHT: THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT...WILL CAUSE A MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND AND ASSOCIATED VIRGA
OR ISOLATED SPRINKLES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 06-12Z.
A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER/BELOW 10 THOUSAND FT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
OCCURRENCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. NOT AS COOL...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -MWS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM MONDAY...

ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ONE LOCATED OVER
ONTARIO THIS MORNING...WILL AMPLIFY SHARPLY SSE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
TUE AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT...CULMINATING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY
WED. A SURFACE COLD FRONT PRECEDING THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TUE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK OVERALL...THE FORMER CONFINED TO A THIN
LAYER BETWEEN 850-750 MB AND THE LATTER AOB 200 J/KG PER BUFR
SOUNDINGS...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AMIDST THE RENEWED
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A BAND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...WHERE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND DEEPER LIFT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT.  ANY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST AND/OR DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY EVENING...BUT
WITH A LATE NIGHT RENEWED CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) OF SHOWERS AGAIN
OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWFA...AS THE STRONGEST HEIGHT
FALLS/COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND MID-UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AND DEFORMATION OVERSPREAD NE NC AND SE VA. DRY ELSEWHERE...BUT WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OWING TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. LOWS MOSTLY 45 TO 50 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US...AND CROSSING NC TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE DELMARVA ON WEDNESDAY.  BENEATH THE UPPER LOW...STEEP
TROPOSPHERIC DEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA FREE OF PRECIP.  SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
MARGINALLY BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD
LEAD TO A MORE PRONOUNCED CUMULUS FIELD...WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...TO PROSPECTS ARE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO NEAR 1330M WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD YIELD LOW TO MID 60S.  SIMILAR THICKNESS
VALUES THURSDAY MORNING SUGGEST LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.

THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES AND
LINGERS OVER THE OHIO/TENN VALLEYS.  BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE.  THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN INDICATING A SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST US BY THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE AND ITS FINAL DESTINATION.  THE 00Z/20TH
ECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN SHOWING THE WAVE CUTTING OFF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...NOW SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE THAT SWINGS ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE REGION AND OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY...A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE
LIKE PREVIOUS GFS RUNS.  THE SENSIBLE IMPACTS OF THIS WAVE APPEAR TO
BE MINIMAL AS THE AIRMASS OVER NC WILL BE QUITE DRY AND
STABLE...WITH JUST A SLOW TREND IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 121 PM MONDAY...

A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL RESIDE OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE DISTURBANCES
WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A TAD BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY SUNSET.

THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NW WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BIT
BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS PROBABLE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ORIENTATED CLOSER TO CENTRAL NC
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LEADING TO LIGHTER SFC WINDS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 201720
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
121 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER ONE - AND PRECEDING SURFACE COLD FRONT - THAT WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM MONDAY...

SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NC WILL DRIFT EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RETURN LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO
OUR REGION. ALOFT...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC...EXITING OUR
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PATCHY CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE REPLACED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SUNSHINE AND THE SFC SWLY FLOW WILL PUSH
TEMPS TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
-WSS

TONIGHT: THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT...WILL CAUSE A MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND AND ASSOCIATED VIRGA
OR ISOLATED SPRINKLES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 06-12Z.
A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER/BELOW 10 THOUSAND FT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
OCCURRENCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. NOT AS COOL...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -MWS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM MONDAY...

ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ONE LOCATED OVER
ONTARIO THIS MORNING...WILL AMPLIFY SHARPLY SSE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
TUE AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT...CULMINATING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY
WED. A SURFACE COLD FRONT PRECEDING THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TUE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK OVERALL...THE FORMER CONFINED TO A THIN
LAYER BETWEEN 850-750 MB AND THE LATTER AOB 200 J/KG PER BUFR
SOUNDINGS...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AMIDST THE RENEWED
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A BAND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...WHERE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND DEEPER LIFT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT.  ANY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST AND/OR DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY EVENING...BUT
WITH A LATE NIGHT RENEWED CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) OF SHOWERS AGAIN
OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWFA...AS THE STRONGEST HEIGHT
FALLS/COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND MID-UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AND DEFORMATION OVERSPREAD NE NC AND SE VA. DRY ELSEWHERE...BUT WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OWING TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. LOWS MOSTLY 45 TO 50 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US...AND CROSSING NC TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE DELMARVA ON WEDNESDAY.  BENEATH THE UPPER LOW...STEEP
TROPOSPHERIC DEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA FREE OF PRECIP.  SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
MARGINALLY BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD
LEAD TO A MORE PRONOUNCED CUMULUS FIELD...WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...TO PROSPECTS ARE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO NEAR 1330M WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD YIELD LOW TO MID 60S.  SIMILAR THICKNESS
VALUES THURSDAY MORNING SUGGEST LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.

THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES AND
LINGERS OVER THE OHIO/TENN VALLEYS.  BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE.  THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN INDICATING A SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST US BY THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE AND ITS FINAL DESTINATION.  THE 00Z/20TH
ECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN SHOWING THE WAVE CUTTING OFF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...NOW SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE THAT SWINGS ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE REGION AND OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY...A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE
LIKE PREVIOUS GFS RUNS.  THE SENSIBLE IMPACTS OF THIS WAVE APPEAR TO
BE MINIMAL AS THE AIRMASS OVER NC WILL BE QUITE DRY AND
STABLE...WITH JUST A SLOW TREND IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 121 PM MONDAY...

A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL RESIDE OVER CENTRAL NC THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE DISTURBANCES
WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE A TAD BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-18KTS. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY SUNSET.

THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NW WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BIT
BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KTS PROBABLE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ORIENTATED CLOSER TO CENTRAL NC
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LEADING TO LIGHTER SFC WINDS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 201417
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1015 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER ONE - AND PRECEDING SURFACE COLD FRONT - THAT WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM MONDAY...

SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NC WILL DRIFT EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RETURN LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO
OUR REGION. ALOFT...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC...EXITING OUR
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PATCHY CIRRUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE REPLACED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SUNSHINE AND THE SFC SWLY FLOW WILL PUSH
TEMPS TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
-WSS

TONIGHT: THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT...WILL CAUSE A MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND AND ASSOCIATED VIRGA
OR ISOLATED SPRINKLES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 06-12Z.
A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER/BELOW 10 THOUSAND FT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
OCCURRENCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. NOT AS COOL...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -MWS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM MONDAY...

ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ONE LOCATED OVER
ONTARIO THIS MORNING...WILL AMPLIFY SHARPLY SSE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
TUE AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT...CULMINATING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY
WED. A SURFACE COLD FRONT PRECEDING THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TUE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK OVERALL...THE FORMER CONFINED TO A THIN
LAYER BETWEEN 850-750 MB AND THE LATTER AOB 200 J/KG PER BUFR
SOUNDINGS...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AMIDST THE RENEWED
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A BAND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...WHERE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND DEEPER LIFT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT.  ANY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST AND/OR DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY EVENING...BUT
WITH A LATE NIGHT RENEWED CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) OF SHOWERS AGAIN
OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWFA...AS THE STRONGEST HEIGHT
FALLS/COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND MID-UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AND DEFORMATION OVERSPREAD NE NC AND SE VA. DRY ELSEWHERE...BUT WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OWING TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. LOWS MOSTLY 45 TO 50 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US...AND CROSSING NC TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE DELMARVA ON WEDNESDAY.  BENEATH THE UPPER LOW...STEEP
TROPOSPHERIC DEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA FREE OF PRECIP.  SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
MARGINALLY BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD
LEAD TO A MORE PRONOUNCED CUMULUS FIELD...WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...TO PROSPECTS ARE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO NEAR 1330M WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD YIELD LOW TO MID 60S.  SIMILAR THICKNESS
VALUES THURSDAY MORNING SUGGEST LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.

THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES AND
LINGERS OVER THE OHIO/TENN VALLEYS.  BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE.  THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN INDICATING A SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST US BY THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE AND ITS FINAL DESTINATION.  THE 00Z/20TH
ECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN SHOWING THE WAVE CUTTING OFF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...NOW SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE THAT SWINGS ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE REGION AND OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY...A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE
LIKE PREVIOUS GFS RUNS.  THE SENSIBLE IMPACTS OF THIS WAVE APPEAR TO
BE MINIMAL AS THE AIRMASS OVER NC WILL BE QUITE DRY AND
STABLE...WITH JUST A SLOW TREND IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM MONDAY...

CIRRUS AND CALM THIS MORNING WILL YIELD TO A DEVELOPING SSW SURFACE
WIND THAT WILL BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS
KTS MAINLY AT KINT/KGSO DURING THE MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE NC COAST. THE RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO
RESULT IN THE ONSHORE DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF AN AREA OF
STRATOCUMULUS...THE WESTERN EDGE OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUD BASES AROUND 3500-4500 FT AT KFAY AND KRWI THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CEILINGS ABOVE
10 THOUSAND FEET AND VIRGA WILL OCCUR WITH THE WEST TO EAST PASSAGE
OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES...AND ASSOCIATED PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUE...
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED...
MAINLY FROM KRDU AND KRWI NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 201057
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
657 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE - AND PRECEDING SURFACE COLD
FRONT - THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM MONDAY...

A DEAMPLIFYING SOUTHERN STREAM MID-UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN
TN...AND PRECEDING AREA OF CIRRUS AT 07Z...WILL CONTINUE ENE ACROSS
NC/VA THROUGH NOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...AS A STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF MAXIMUM
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT (~60 M/12 HR) AMPLIFY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND LOWER OH VALLEY. CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE DEPARTING HEELS OF THE ONES FROM SOUTHERN
STREAM...WHILE THE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ALSO PROMOTES THE ONSHORE
DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
MODERATE IN RETURN/WARMING SW FLOW...INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

TONIGHT: THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT...WILL CAUSE A MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND AND ASSOCIATED VIRGA
OR ISOLATED SPRINKLES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 06-12Z.
A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER/BELOW 10 THOUSAND FT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
OCCURRENCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. NOT AS COOL...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM MONDAY...

ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ONE LOCATED OVER
ONTARIO THIS MORNING...WILL AMPLIFY SHARPLY SSE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
TUE AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT...CULMINATING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY
WED. A SURFACE COLD FRONT PRECEDING THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TUE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK OVERALL...THE FORMER CONFINED TO A THIN
LAYER BETWEEN 850-750 MB AND THE LATTER AOB 200 J/KG PER BUFR
SOUNDINGS...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AMIDST THE RENEWED
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A BAND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...WHERE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND DEEPER LIFT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT.  ANY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST AND/OR DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY EVENING...BUT
WITH A LATE NIGHT RENEWED CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) OF SHOWERS AGAIN
OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWFA...AS THE STRONGEST HEIGHT
FALLS/COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND MID-UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AND DEFORMATION OVERSPREAD NE NC AND SE VA. DRY ELSEWHERE...BUT WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OWING TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. LOWS MOSTLY 45 TO 50 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US...AND CROSSING NC TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE DELMARVA ON WEDNESDAY.  BENEATH THE UPPER LOW...STEEP
TROPOSPHERIC DEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA FREE OF PRECIP.  SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
MARGINALLY BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD
LEAD TO A MORE PRONOUNCED CUMULUS FIELD...WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...TO PROSPECTS ARE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO NEAR 1330M WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD YIELD LOW TO MID 60S.  SIMILAR THICKNESS
VALUES THURSDAY MORNING SUGGEST LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.

THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES AND
LINGERS OVER THE OHIO/TENN VALLEYS.  BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE.  THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN INDICATING A SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST US BY THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE AND ITS FINAL DESTINATION.  THE 00Z/20TH
ECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN SHOWING THE WAVE CUTTING OFF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...NOW SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE THAT SWINGS ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE REGION AND OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY...A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE
LIKE PREVIOUS GFS RUNS.  THE SENSIBLE IMPACTS OF THIS WAVE APPEAR TO
BE MINIMAL AS THE AIRMASS OVER NC WILL BE QUITE DRY AND
STABLE...WITH JUST A SLOW TREND IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM MONDAY...

CIRRUS AND CALM THIS MORNING WILL YIELD TO A DEVELOPING SSW SURFACE
WIND THAT WILL BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS
KTS MAINLY AT KINT/KGSO DURING THE MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE NC COAST. THE RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO
RESULT IN THE ONSHORE DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF AN AREA OF
STRATOCUMULUS...THE WESTERN EDGE OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUD BASES AROUND 3500-4500 FT AT KFAY AND KRWI THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CEILINGS ABOVE
10 THOUSAND FEET AND VIRGA WILL OCCUR WITH THE WEST TO EAST PASSAGE
OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES...AND ASSOCIATED PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUE...
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED...
MAINLY FROM KRDU AND KRWI NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 201057
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
657 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE - AND PRECEDING SURFACE COLD
FRONT - THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM MONDAY...

A DEAMPLIFYING SOUTHERN STREAM MID-UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN
TN...AND PRECEDING AREA OF CIRRUS AT 07Z...WILL CONTINUE ENE ACROSS
NC/VA THROUGH NOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...AS A STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF MAXIMUM
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT (~60 M/12 HR) AMPLIFY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND LOWER OH VALLEY. CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE DEPARTING HEELS OF THE ONES FROM SOUTHERN
STREAM...WHILE THE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ALSO PROMOTES THE ONSHORE
DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
MODERATE IN RETURN/WARMING SW FLOW...INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

TONIGHT: THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT...WILL CAUSE A MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND AND ASSOCIATED VIRGA
OR ISOLATED SPRINKLES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 06-12Z.
A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER/BELOW 10 THOUSAND FT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
OCCURRENCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. NOT AS COOL...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM MONDAY...

ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ONE LOCATED OVER
ONTARIO THIS MORNING...WILL AMPLIFY SHARPLY SSE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
TUE AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT...CULMINATING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY
WED. A SURFACE COLD FRONT PRECEDING THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TUE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK OVERALL...THE FORMER CONFINED TO A THIN
LAYER BETWEEN 850-750 MB AND THE LATTER AOB 200 J/KG PER BUFR
SOUNDINGS...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AMIDST THE RENEWED
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A BAND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...WHERE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND DEEPER LIFT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT.  ANY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST AND/OR DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY EVENING...BUT
WITH A LATE NIGHT RENEWED CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) OF SHOWERS AGAIN
OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWFA...AS THE STRONGEST HEIGHT
FALLS/COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND MID-UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AND DEFORMATION OVERSPREAD NE NC AND SE VA. DRY ELSEWHERE...BUT WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OWING TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. LOWS MOSTLY 45 TO 50 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US...AND CROSSING NC TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE DELMARVA ON WEDNESDAY.  BENEATH THE UPPER LOW...STEEP
TROPOSPHERIC DEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA FREE OF PRECIP.  SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
MARGINALLY BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD
LEAD TO A MORE PRONOUNCED CUMULUS FIELD...WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...TO PROSPECTS ARE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO NEAR 1330M WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD YIELD LOW TO MID 60S.  SIMILAR THICKNESS
VALUES THURSDAY MORNING SUGGEST LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.

THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES AND
LINGERS OVER THE OHIO/TENN VALLEYS.  BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE.  THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN INDICATING A SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST US BY THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE AND ITS FINAL DESTINATION.  THE 00Z/20TH
ECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN SHOWING THE WAVE CUTTING OFF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...NOW SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE THAT SWINGS ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE REGION AND OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY...A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE
LIKE PREVIOUS GFS RUNS.  THE SENSIBLE IMPACTS OF THIS WAVE APPEAR TO
BE MINIMAL AS THE AIRMASS OVER NC WILL BE QUITE DRY AND
STABLE...WITH JUST A SLOW TREND IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM MONDAY...

CIRRUS AND CALM THIS MORNING WILL YIELD TO A DEVELOPING SSW SURFACE
WIND THAT WILL BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS
KTS MAINLY AT KINT/KGSO DURING THE MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE NC COAST. THE RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO
RESULT IN THE ONSHORE DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF AN AREA OF
STRATOCUMULUS...THE WESTERN EDGE OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUD BASES AROUND 3500-4500 FT AT KFAY AND KRWI THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CEILINGS ABOVE
10 THOUSAND FEET AND VIRGA WILL OCCUR WITH THE WEST TO EAST PASSAGE
OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES...AND ASSOCIATED PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUE...
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED...
MAINLY FROM KRDU AND KRWI NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 200741
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
340 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE - AND PRECEDING SURFACE COLD
FRONT - THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM MONDAY...

A DEAMPLIFYING SOUTHERN STREAM MID-UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN
TN...AND PRECEDING AREA OF CIRRUS AT 07Z...WILL CONTINUE ENE ACROSS
NC/VA THROUGH NOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...AS A STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF MAXIMUM
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT (~60 M/12 HR) AMPLIFY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND LOWER OH VALLEY. CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE DEPARTING HEELS OF THE ONES FROM SOUTHERN
STREAM...WHILE THE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ALSO PROMOTES THE ONSHORE
DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
MODERATE IN RETURN/WARMING SW FLOW...INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

TONIGHT: THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT...WILL CAUSE A MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND AND ASSOCIATED VIRGA
OR ISOLATED SPRINKLES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 06-12Z.
A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER/BELOW 10 THOUSAND FT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
OCCURRENCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. NOT AS COOL...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM MONDAY...

ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ONE LOCATED OVER
ONTARIO THIS MORNING...WILL AMPLIFY SHARPLY SSE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
TUE AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT...CULMINATING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY
WED. A SURFACE COLD FRONT PRECEDING THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TUE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK OVERALL...THE FORMER CONFINED TO A THIN
LAYER BETWEEN 850-750 MB AND THE LATTER AOB 200 J/KG PER BUFR
SOUNDINGS...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AMIDST THE RENEWED
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A BAND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...WHERE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND DEEPER LIFT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT.  ANY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST AND/OR DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY EVENING...BUT
WITH A LATE NIGHT RENEWED CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) OF SHOWERS AGAIN
OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWFA...AS THE STRONGEST HEIGHT
FALLS/COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND MID-UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AND DEFORMATION OVERSPREAD NE NC AND SE VA. DRY ELSEWHERE...BUT WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OWING TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. LOWS MOSTLY 45 TO 50 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US...AND CROSSING NC TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE DELMARVA ON WEDNESDAY.  BENEATH THE UPPER LOW...STEEP
TROPOSPHERIC DEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA FREE OF PRECIP.  SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
MARGINALLY BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD
LEAD TO A MORE PRONOUNCED CUMULUS FIELD...WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...TO PROSPECTS ARE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO NEAR 1330M WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD YIELD LOW TO MID 60S.  SIMILAR THICKNESS
VALUES THURSDAY MORNING SUGGEST LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.

THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES AND
LINGERS OVER THE OHIO/TENN VALLEYS.  BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE.  THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN INDICATING A SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST US BY THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE AND ITS FINAL DESTINATION.  THE 00Z/20TH
ECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN SHOWING THE WAVE CUTTING OFF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...NOW SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE THAT SWINGS ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE REGION AND OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY...A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE
LIKE PREVIOUS GFS RUNS.  THE SENSIBLE IMPACTS OF THIS WAVE APPEAR TO
BE MINIMAL AS THE AIRMASS OVER NC WILL BE QUITE DRY AND
STABLE...WITH JUST A SLOW TREND IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM MONDAY...

CIRRUS AND CALM WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING SSW SURFACE WIND THAT WILL BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO
THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS MAINLY AT KINT/KGSO DURING THE MIDDAY-EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE ONSHORE
DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS...THE WESTERN EDGE
OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD BASES AROUND 3500-
4000 FT AT KFAY AND KRWI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES...AND ASSOCIATED PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUE...
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE-WED...MAINLY FROM KRDU AND
KRWI NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 200741
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
340 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE - AND PRECEDING SURFACE COLD
FRONT - THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM MONDAY...

A DEAMPLIFYING SOUTHERN STREAM MID-UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN
TN...AND PRECEDING AREA OF CIRRUS AT 07Z...WILL CONTINUE ENE ACROSS
NC/VA THROUGH NOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...AS A STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF MAXIMUM
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT (~60 M/12 HR) AMPLIFY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND LOWER OH VALLEY. CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE DEPARTING HEELS OF THE ONES FROM SOUTHERN
STREAM...WHILE THE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ALSO PROMOTES THE ONSHORE
DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
MODERATE IN RETURN/WARMING SW FLOW...INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

TONIGHT: THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT...WILL CAUSE A MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND AND ASSOCIATED VIRGA
OR ISOLATED SPRINKLES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 06-12Z.
A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER/BELOW 10 THOUSAND FT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
OCCURRENCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. NOT AS COOL...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM MONDAY...

ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ONE LOCATED OVER
ONTARIO THIS MORNING...WILL AMPLIFY SHARPLY SSE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
TUE AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT...CULMINATING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY
WED. A SURFACE COLD FRONT PRECEDING THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TUE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK OVERALL...THE FORMER CONFINED TO A THIN
LAYER BETWEEN 850-750 MB AND THE LATTER AOB 200 J/KG PER BUFR
SOUNDINGS...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AMIDST THE RENEWED
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A BAND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...WHERE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND DEEPER LIFT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT.  ANY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST AND/OR DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY EVENING...BUT
WITH A LATE NIGHT RENEWED CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) OF SHOWERS AGAIN
OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWFA...AS THE STRONGEST HEIGHT
FALLS/COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND MID-UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AND DEFORMATION OVERSPREAD NE NC AND SE VA. DRY ELSEWHERE...BUT WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OWING TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. LOWS MOSTLY 45 TO 50 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US...AND CROSSING NC TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE DELMARVA ON WEDNESDAY.  BENEATH THE UPPER LOW...STEEP
TROPOSPHERIC DEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA FREE OF PRECIP.  SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
MARGINALLY BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD
LEAD TO A MORE PRONOUNCED CUMULUS FIELD...WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...TO PROSPECTS ARE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO NEAR 1330M WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD YIELD LOW TO MID 60S.  SIMILAR THICKNESS
VALUES THURSDAY MORNING SUGGEST LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.

THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES AND
LINGERS OVER THE OHIO/TENN VALLEYS.  BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE.  THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN INDICATING A SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST US BY THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE AND ITS FINAL DESTINATION.  THE 00Z/20TH
ECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN SHOWING THE WAVE CUTTING OFF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...NOW SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE THAT SWINGS ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE REGION AND OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY...A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE
LIKE PREVIOUS GFS RUNS.  THE SENSIBLE IMPACTS OF THIS WAVE APPEAR TO
BE MINIMAL AS THE AIRMASS OVER NC WILL BE QUITE DRY AND
STABLE...WITH JUST A SLOW TREND IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM MONDAY...

CIRRUS AND CALM WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING SSW SURFACE WIND THAT WILL BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO
THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS MAINLY AT KINT/KGSO DURING THE MIDDAY-EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE ONSHORE
DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS...THE WESTERN EDGE
OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD BASES AROUND 3500-
4000 FT AT KFAY AND KRWI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES...AND ASSOCIATED PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUE...
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE-WED...MAINLY FROM KRDU AND
KRWI NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 200741
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
340 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE - AND PRECEDING SURFACE COLD
FRONT - THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM MONDAY...

A DEAMPLIFYING SOUTHERN STREAM MID-UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN
TN...AND PRECEDING AREA OF CIRRUS AT 07Z...WILL CONTINUE ENE ACROSS
NC/VA THROUGH NOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...AS A STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF MAXIMUM
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT (~60 M/12 HR) AMPLIFY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND LOWER OH VALLEY. CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE DEPARTING HEELS OF THE ONES FROM SOUTHERN
STREAM...WHILE THE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ALSO PROMOTES THE ONSHORE
DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
MODERATE IN RETURN/WARMING SW FLOW...INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

TONIGHT: THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT...WILL CAUSE A MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND AND ASSOCIATED VIRGA
OR ISOLATED SPRINKLES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 06-12Z.
A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER/BELOW 10 THOUSAND FT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
OCCURRENCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. NOT AS COOL...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM MONDAY...

ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ONE LOCATED OVER
ONTARIO THIS MORNING...WILL AMPLIFY SHARPLY SSE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
TUE AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT...CULMINATING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY
WED. A SURFACE COLD FRONT PRECEDING THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TUE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK OVERALL...THE FORMER CONFINED TO A THIN
LAYER BETWEEN 850-750 MB AND THE LATTER AOB 200 J/KG PER BUFR
SOUNDINGS...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AMIDST THE RENEWED
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A BAND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...WHERE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND DEEPER LIFT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT.  ANY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST AND/OR DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY EVENING...BUT
WITH A LATE NIGHT RENEWED CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) OF SHOWERS AGAIN
OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWFA...AS THE STRONGEST HEIGHT
FALLS/COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND MID-UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AND DEFORMATION OVERSPREAD NE NC AND SE VA. DRY ELSEWHERE...BUT WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OWING TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. LOWS MOSTLY 45 TO 50 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US...AND CROSSING NC TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE DELMARVA ON WEDNESDAY.  BENEATH THE UPPER LOW...STEEP
TROPOSPHERIC DEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA FREE OF PRECIP.  SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
MARGINALLY BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD
LEAD TO A MORE PRONOUNCED CUMULUS FIELD...WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...TO PROSPECTS ARE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO NEAR 1330M WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD YIELD LOW TO MID 60S.  SIMILAR THICKNESS
VALUES THURSDAY MORNING SUGGEST LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.

THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES AND
LINGERS OVER THE OHIO/TENN VALLEYS.  BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE.  THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN INDICATING A SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST US BY THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE AND ITS FINAL DESTINATION.  THE 00Z/20TH
ECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN SHOWING THE WAVE CUTTING OFF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...NOW SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE THAT SWINGS ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE REGION AND OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY...A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE
LIKE PREVIOUS GFS RUNS.  THE SENSIBLE IMPACTS OF THIS WAVE APPEAR TO
BE MINIMAL AS THE AIRMASS OVER NC WILL BE QUITE DRY AND
STABLE...WITH JUST A SLOW TREND IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM MONDAY...

CIRRUS AND CALM WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING SSW SURFACE WIND THAT WILL BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO
THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS MAINLY AT KINT/KGSO DURING THE MIDDAY-EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE ONSHORE
DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS...THE WESTERN EDGE
OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD BASES AROUND 3500-
4000 FT AT KFAY AND KRWI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES...AND ASSOCIATED PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUE...
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE-WED...MAINLY FROM KRDU AND
KRWI NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 200741
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
340 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE - AND PRECEDING SURFACE COLD
FRONT - THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM MONDAY...

A DEAMPLIFYING SOUTHERN STREAM MID-UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN
TN...AND PRECEDING AREA OF CIRRUS AT 07Z...WILL CONTINUE ENE ACROSS
NC/VA THROUGH NOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...AS A STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF MAXIMUM
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT (~60 M/12 HR) AMPLIFY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND LOWER OH VALLEY. CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE DEPARTING HEELS OF THE ONES FROM SOUTHERN
STREAM...WHILE THE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ALSO PROMOTES THE ONSHORE
DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
MODERATE IN RETURN/WARMING SW FLOW...INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

TONIGHT: THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT...WILL CAUSE A MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND AND ASSOCIATED VIRGA
OR ISOLATED SPRINKLES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 06-12Z.
A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER/BELOW 10 THOUSAND FT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
OCCURRENCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. NOT AS COOL...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM MONDAY...

ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ONE LOCATED OVER
ONTARIO THIS MORNING...WILL AMPLIFY SHARPLY SSE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
TUE AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TUE NIGHT...CULMINATING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY
WED. A SURFACE COLD FRONT PRECEDING THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC TUE AFTERNOON...BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK OVERALL...THE FORMER CONFINED TO A THIN
LAYER BETWEEN 850-750 MB AND THE LATTER AOB 200 J/KG PER BUFR
SOUNDINGS...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AMIDST THE RENEWED
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A BAND OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN...WHERE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND DEEPER LIFT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT.  ANY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST AND/OR DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY EVENING...BUT
WITH A LATE NIGHT RENEWED CHANCE (20-30 PERCENT) OF SHOWERS AGAIN
OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWFA...AS THE STRONGEST HEIGHT
FALLS/COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND MID-UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AND DEFORMATION OVERSPREAD NE NC AND SE VA. DRY ELSEWHERE...BUT WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OWING TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. LOWS MOSTLY 45 TO 50 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US...AND CROSSING NC TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE DELMARVA ON WEDNESDAY.  BENEATH THE UPPER LOW...STEEP
TROPOSPHERIC DEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA FREE OF PRECIP.  SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
MARGINALLY BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD
LEAD TO A MORE PRONOUNCED CUMULUS FIELD...WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...TO PROSPECTS ARE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO NEAR 1330M WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD YIELD LOW TO MID 60S.  SIMILAR THICKNESS
VALUES THURSDAY MORNING SUGGEST LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.

THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES AND
LINGERS OVER THE OHIO/TENN VALLEYS.  BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE.  THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN INDICATING A SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST US BY THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE AND ITS FINAL DESTINATION.  THE 00Z/20TH
ECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN SHOWING THE WAVE CUTTING OFF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...NOW SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE THAT SWINGS ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE REGION AND OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY...A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE
LIKE PREVIOUS GFS RUNS.  THE SENSIBLE IMPACTS OF THIS WAVE APPEAR TO
BE MINIMAL AS THE AIRMASS OVER NC WILL BE QUITE DRY AND
STABLE...WITH JUST A SLOW TREND IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM MONDAY...

CIRRUS AND CALM WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING SSW SURFACE WIND THAT WILL BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO
THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS MAINLY AT KINT/KGSO DURING THE MIDDAY-EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE ONSHORE
DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS...THE WESTERN EDGE
OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD BASES AROUND 3500-
4000 FT AT KFAY AND KRWI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES...AND ASSOCIATED PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUE...
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE-WED...MAINLY FROM KRDU AND
KRWI NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 200733
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE - AND PRECEDING SURFACE COLD
FRONT - THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM MONDAY...

A DEAMPLIFYING SOUTHERN STREAM MID-UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN
TN...AND PRECEDING AREA OF CIRRUS AT 07Z...WILL CONTINUE ENE ACROSS
NC/VA THROUGH NOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...AS A STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF MAXIMUM
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT (~60 M/12 HR) AMPLIFY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND LOWER OH VALLEY. CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE DEPARTING HEELS OF THE ONES FROM SOUTHERN
STREAM...WHILE THE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ALSO PROMOTES THE ONSHORE
DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
MODERATE IN RETURN/WARMING SW FLOW...INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

TONIGHT: THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT...WILL CAUSE A MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND AND ASSOCIATED VIRGA
OR ISOLATED SPRINKLES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 06-12Z.
A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER/BELOW 10 THOUSAND FT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
OCCURRENCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. NOT AS COOL...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST...COMMENCING AIR MASS
MODIFICATION. LOW LEVEL RETURN EXPECTED TO BE SWLY BY AFTERNOON WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS PROBABLE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
REBOUND ABOUT 10M FROM LEVELS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS
MAX TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. FACTORING IN ADDITIONAL
WARMING FROM THE LOW LEVEL SW FLOW SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NEAR 70 TO THE
LOWER 70S.

MONDAY NIGHT...L/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. UNDERGOES
AMPLIFICATION THANKS TO A S/W CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE TAILE ND OF THIS S/W WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
NIGHT...GENERATING AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE 8000-15000FT LAYER MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO
INITIATE SOME PRECIP BUT THE SUB CLOUD LAYER STILL QUITE DRY.
THUS...EXPECT NOTHING WORSE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF...AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES OUR REGION. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US...AND CROSSING NC TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE DELMARVA ON WEDNESDAY.  BENEATH THE UPPER LOW...STEEP
TROPOSPHERIC DEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA FREE OF PRECIP.  SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
MARGINALLY BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD
LEAD TO A MORE PRONOUNCED CUMULUS FIELD...WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...TO PROSPECTS ARE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO NEAR 1330M WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD YIELD LOW TO MID 60S.  SIMILAR THICKNESS
VALUES THURSDAY MORNING SUGGEST LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.

THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES AND
LINGERS OVER THE OHIO/TENN VALLEYS.  BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE.  THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN INDICATING A SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST US BY THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE AND ITS FINAL DESTINATION.  THE 00Z/20TH
ECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN SHOWING THE WAVE CUTTING OFF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...NOW SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE THAT SWINGS ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE REGION AND OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY...A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE
LIKE PREVIOUS GFS RUNS.  THE SENSIBLE IMPACTS OF THIS WAVE APPEAR TO
BE MINIMAL AS THE AIRMASS OVER NC WILL BE QUITE DRY AND
STABLE...WITH JUST A SLOW TREND IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM MONDAY...

CIRRUS AND CALM WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING SSW SURFACE WIND THAT WILL BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO
THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS MAINLY AT KINT/KGSO DURING THE MIDDAY-EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE ONSHORE
DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS...THE WESTERN EDGE
OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD BASES AROUND 3500-
4000 FT AT KFAY AND KRWI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES...AND ASSOCIATED PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUE...
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE-WED...MAINLY FROM KRDU AND
KRWI NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 200733
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE - AND PRECEDING SURFACE COLD
FRONT - THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM MONDAY...

A DEAMPLIFYING SOUTHERN STREAM MID-UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN
TN...AND PRECEDING AREA OF CIRRUS AT 07Z...WILL CONTINUE ENE ACROSS
NC/VA THROUGH NOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...AS A STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF MAXIMUM
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT (~60 M/12 HR) AMPLIFY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND LOWER OH VALLEY. CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE DEPARTING HEELS OF THE ONES FROM SOUTHERN
STREAM...WHILE THE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ALSO PROMOTES THE ONSHORE
DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
MODERATE IN RETURN/WARMING SW FLOW...INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

TONIGHT: THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT...WILL CAUSE A MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND AND ASSOCIATED VIRGA
OR ISOLATED SPRINKLES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 06-12Z.
A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER/BELOW 10 THOUSAND FT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
OCCURRENCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. NOT AS COOL...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST...COMMENCING AIR MASS
MODIFICATION. LOW LEVEL RETURN EXPECTED TO BE SWLY BY AFTERNOON WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS PROBABLE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
REBOUND ABOUT 10M FROM LEVELS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS
MAX TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. FACTORING IN ADDITIONAL
WARMING FROM THE LOW LEVEL SW FLOW SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NEAR 70 TO THE
LOWER 70S.

MONDAY NIGHT...L/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. UNDERGOES
AMPLIFICATION THANKS TO A S/W CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE TAILE ND OF THIS S/W WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
NIGHT...GENERATING AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE 8000-15000FT LAYER MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO
INITIATE SOME PRECIP BUT THE SUB CLOUD LAYER STILL QUITE DRY.
THUS...EXPECT NOTHING WORSE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF...AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES OUR REGION. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US...AND CROSSING NC TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE DELMARVA ON WEDNESDAY.  BENEATH THE UPPER LOW...STEEP
TROPOSPHERIC DEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA FREE OF PRECIP.  SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
MARGINALLY BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD
LEAD TO A MORE PRONOUNCED CUMULUS FIELD...WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...TO PROSPECTS ARE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO NEAR 1330M WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD YIELD LOW TO MID 60S.  SIMILAR THICKNESS
VALUES THURSDAY MORNING SUGGEST LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.

THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES AND
LINGERS OVER THE OHIO/TENN VALLEYS.  BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE.  THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN INDICATING A SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST US BY THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE AND ITS FINAL DESTINATION.  THE 00Z/20TH
ECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN SHOWING THE WAVE CUTTING OFF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...NOW SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE THAT SWINGS ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE REGION AND OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY...A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE
LIKE PREVIOUS GFS RUNS.  THE SENSIBLE IMPACTS OF THIS WAVE APPEAR TO
BE MINIMAL AS THE AIRMASS OVER NC WILL BE QUITE DRY AND
STABLE...WITH JUST A SLOW TREND IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM MONDAY...

CIRRUS AND CALM WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING SSW SURFACE WIND THAT WILL BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO
THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS MAINLY AT KINT/KGSO DURING THE MIDDAY-EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE ONSHORE
DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS...THE WESTERN EDGE
OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD BASES AROUND 3500-
4000 FT AT KFAY AND KRWI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES...AND ASSOCIATED PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUE...
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE-WED...MAINLY FROM KRDU AND
KRWI NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 200733
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE - AND PRECEDING SURFACE COLD
FRONT - THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM MONDAY...

A DEAMPLIFYING SOUTHERN STREAM MID-UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN
TN...AND PRECEDING AREA OF CIRRUS AT 07Z...WILL CONTINUE ENE ACROSS
NC/VA THROUGH NOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...AS A STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF MAXIMUM
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT (~60 M/12 HR) AMPLIFY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND LOWER OH VALLEY. CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE DEPARTING HEELS OF THE ONES FROM SOUTHERN
STREAM...WHILE THE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ALSO PROMOTES THE ONSHORE
DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
MODERATE IN RETURN/WARMING SW FLOW...INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

TONIGHT: THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT...WILL CAUSE A MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND AND ASSOCIATED VIRGA
OR ISOLATED SPRINKLES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 06-12Z.
A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER/BELOW 10 THOUSAND FT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
OCCURRENCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. NOT AS COOL...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST...COMMENCING AIR MASS
MODIFICATION. LOW LEVEL RETURN EXPECTED TO BE SWLY BY AFTERNOON WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS PROBABLE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
REBOUND ABOUT 10M FROM LEVELS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS
MAX TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. FACTORING IN ADDITIONAL
WARMING FROM THE LOW LEVEL SW FLOW SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NEAR 70 TO THE
LOWER 70S.

MONDAY NIGHT...L/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. UNDERGOES
AMPLIFICATION THANKS TO A S/W CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE TAILE ND OF THIS S/W WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
NIGHT...GENERATING AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE 8000-15000FT LAYER MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO
INITIATE SOME PRECIP BUT THE SUB CLOUD LAYER STILL QUITE DRY.
THUS...EXPECT NOTHING WORSE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF...AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES OUR REGION. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US...AND CROSSING NC TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE DELMARVA ON WEDNESDAY.  BENEATH THE UPPER LOW...STEEP
TROPOSPHERIC DEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA FREE OF PRECIP.  SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
MARGINALLY BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD
LEAD TO A MORE PRONOUNCED CUMULUS FIELD...WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...TO PROSPECTS ARE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO NEAR 1330M WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD YIELD LOW TO MID 60S.  SIMILAR THICKNESS
VALUES THURSDAY MORNING SUGGEST LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.

THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES AND
LINGERS OVER THE OHIO/TENN VALLEYS.  BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE.  THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN INDICATING A SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST US BY THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE AND ITS FINAL DESTINATION.  THE 00Z/20TH
ECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN SHOWING THE WAVE CUTTING OFF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...NOW SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE THAT SWINGS ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE REGION AND OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY...A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE
LIKE PREVIOUS GFS RUNS.  THE SENSIBLE IMPACTS OF THIS WAVE APPEAR TO
BE MINIMAL AS THE AIRMASS OVER NC WILL BE QUITE DRY AND
STABLE...WITH JUST A SLOW TREND IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM MONDAY...

CIRRUS AND CALM WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING SSW SURFACE WIND THAT WILL BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO
THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS MAINLY AT KINT/KGSO DURING THE MIDDAY-EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE ONSHORE
DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS...THE WESTERN EDGE
OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD BASES AROUND 3500-
4000 FT AT KFAY AND KRWI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES...AND ASSOCIATED PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUE...
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE-WED...MAINLY FROM KRDU AND
KRWI NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 200733
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE - AND PRECEDING SURFACE COLD
FRONT - THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM MONDAY...

A DEAMPLIFYING SOUTHERN STREAM MID-UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN
TN...AND PRECEDING AREA OF CIRRUS AT 07Z...WILL CONTINUE ENE ACROSS
NC/VA THROUGH NOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...AS A STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF MAXIMUM
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT (~60 M/12 HR) AMPLIFY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND LOWER OH VALLEY. CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE DEPARTING HEELS OF THE ONES FROM SOUTHERN
STREAM...WHILE THE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ALSO PROMOTES THE ONSHORE
DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
MODERATE IN RETURN/WARMING SW FLOW...INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

TONIGHT: THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT...WILL CAUSE A MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND AND ASSOCIATED VIRGA
OR ISOLATED SPRINKLES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 06-12Z.
A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER/BELOW 10 THOUSAND FT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
OCCURRENCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. NOT AS COOL...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST...COMMENCING AIR MASS
MODIFICATION. LOW LEVEL RETURN EXPECTED TO BE SWLY BY AFTERNOON WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS PROBABLE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
REBOUND ABOUT 10M FROM LEVELS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS
MAX TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. FACTORING IN ADDITIONAL
WARMING FROM THE LOW LEVEL SW FLOW SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NEAR 70 TO THE
LOWER 70S.

MONDAY NIGHT...L/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. UNDERGOES
AMPLIFICATION THANKS TO A S/W CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE TAILE ND OF THIS S/W WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
NIGHT...GENERATING AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE 8000-15000FT LAYER MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO
INITIATE SOME PRECIP BUT THE SUB CLOUD LAYER STILL QUITE DRY.
THUS...EXPECT NOTHING WORSE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF...AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES OUR REGION. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US...AND CROSSING NC TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE DELMARVA ON WEDNESDAY.  BENEATH THE UPPER LOW...STEEP
TROPOSPHERIC DEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SOME VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA FREE OF PRECIP.  SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
MARGINALLY BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD
LEAD TO A MORE PRONOUNCED CUMULUS FIELD...WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...TO PROSPECTS ARE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO NEAR 1330M WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD YIELD LOW TO MID 60S.  SIMILAR THICKNESS
VALUES THURSDAY MORNING SUGGEST LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO MID 40S.

THE LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES AND
LINGERS OVER THE OHIO/TENN VALLEYS.  BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE.  THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN INDICATING A SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST US BY THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE AND ITS FINAL DESTINATION.  THE 00Z/20TH
ECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN SHOWING THE WAVE CUTTING OFF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...NOW SHOWS A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE THAT SWINGS ALL THE WAY
THROUGH THE REGION AND OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY...A SOLUTION THAT IS MORE
LIKE PREVIOUS GFS RUNS.  THE SENSIBLE IMPACTS OF THIS WAVE APPEAR TO
BE MINIMAL AS THE AIRMASS OVER NC WILL BE QUITE DRY AND
STABLE...WITH JUST A SLOW TREND IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM MONDAY...

CIRRUS AND CALM WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING SSW SURFACE WIND THAT WILL BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO
THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS MAINLY AT KINT/KGSO DURING THE MIDDAY-EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE ONSHORE
DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS...THE WESTERN EDGE
OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD BASES AROUND 3500-
4000 FT AT KFAY AND KRWI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES...AND ASSOCIATED PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUE...
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE-WED...MAINLY FROM KRDU AND
KRWI NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 200726
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
326 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE - AND PRECEDING SURFACE COLD
FRONT - THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM MONDAY...

A DEAMPLIFYING SOUTHERN STREAM MID-UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN
TN...AND PRECEDING AREA OF CIRRUS AT 07Z...WILL CONTINUE ENE ACROSS
NC/VA THROUGH NOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...AS A STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF MAXIMUM
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT (~60 M/12 HR) AMPLIFY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND LOWER OH VALLEY. CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE DEPARTING HEELS OF THE ONES FROM SOUTHERN
STREAM...WHILE THE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ALSO PROMOTES THE ONSHORE
DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
MODERATE IN RETURN/WARMING SW FLOW...INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

TONIGHT: THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT...WILL CAUSE A MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND AND ASSOCIATED VIRGA
OR ISOLATED SPRINKLES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 06-12Z.
A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER/BELOW 10 THOUSAND FT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
OCCURRENCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. NOT AS COOL...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST...COMMENCING AIR MASS
MODIFICATION. LOW LEVEL RETURN EXPECTED TO BE SWLY BY AFTERNOON WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS PROBABLE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
REBOUND ABOUT 10M FROM LEVELS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS
MAX TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. FACTORING IN ADDITIONAL
WARMING FROM THE LOW LEVEL SW FLOW SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NEAR 70 TO THE
LOWER 70S.

MONDAY NIGHT...L/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. UNDERGOES
AMPLIFICATION THANKS TO A S/W CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE TAILE ND OF THIS S/W WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
NIGHT...GENERATING AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE 8000-15000FT LAYER MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO
INITIATE SOME PRECIP BUT THE SUB CLOUD LAYER STILL QUITE DRY.
THUS...EXPECT NOTHING WORSE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF...AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES OUR REGION. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...

FOR TUE-WED: A MID LEVEL VORTEX IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER LK
ERIE AND PUSH SSE THROUGH WRN PA TUE... THEN DROP TO THE DC VICINITY
BY WED MORNING... AND WOBBLE NORTHWARD OVER THE MIDATLANTIC COAST
WED/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW SETS UP TUE OVER CENTRAL NC
WITH ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WHICH
PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUE EVENING... INTRODUCING COOLER
AIR AS A NOSE OF CANADIAN-SOURCE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NNW. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE MID CLOUDS TO START TUE AS THE 700 MB
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LUNCHTIME BUT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY LOWER BROKEN CLOUDS (ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE TOWERS) ACROSS THE NE AND EAST AS AN ELEVATED
MOIST LAYER AT 850-700 MB SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MOISTURE RETURN IN THE LOWER LEVELS... ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH THE DIGGING VORTEX ALOFT LOOK QUITE LOW. BUT
THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF DPVA AS STRONG VORTICITY LOBES
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW... WHICH MAY PARTIALLY COMPENSATE
FOR THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE. NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY
JUXTAPOSED WITH THE BEST DYNAMIC LIFT MAY STILL SEE A QUICK SPRINKLE
TUE EVENING/NIGHT... SO WILL LEAVE IN THE EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE NE. THE ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE WILL CAUSE THE
LOW TO SHIFT NE WED... AND WITH JUST WEAKER AND SHEARED VORTICITY
DIVING SE OVER CENTRAL NC AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN... WED SHOULD REMAIN DRY EVEN IN THE NE CWA... ALTHOUGH THIS
AREA SHOULD SEE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE WED. EXPECT WARM HIGHS TUE TO
REFLECT THE MILD THICKNESSES... 69-75. LOWS SHOULD SLIP BACK INTO
THE 40S AREAWIDE TUE NIGHT POST-FRONT... THEN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS OF 62-67 WED AS THICKNESSES DROP BACK INTO THE 1330S...
ROUGHLY 25 M BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WED NIGHT 40-45.

FOR THU-SUN: THE DRY PATTERN LOOKS VERY LIKELY TO PERSIST. THE
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOWS TO OUR NE SHIFT FURTHER NE AWAY FROM NC
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS A PORTION OF THE CANADIAN-SOURCE HIGH
BREAKS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY AND BUILDS GRADUALLY
TOWARD NC FROM THE WNW. LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT FROM THE
NW... AND THE DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ENSURE DECENT SUNSHINE AND
MIXING. EXPECT ANOTHER BELOW-NORMAL DAY THU... WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S... BUT THEN THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER WITH THEIR HANDLING OF A WEAK
BUT FULL-LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS THU. THE GFS
FOCUSES ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH... DRAWING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SOUTHEAST INTO THE VORTEX OFF NEW ENGLAND AND PROGRESSING THE
ENTIRE LOW/TROUGH OFF THE COAST BY SAT... FOLLOWED BY STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER TX AND THE GULF STATES SUNDAY. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND PLACES GREATER IMPORTANCE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE PLAINS TROUGH... RESULTING IN A CLOSED LOW OVER ERN TX FRI WHICH
THEN DROPS INTO THE NW GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL OF THIS RESULTS IN
TWO VERY DIFFERENT LONGWAVE PATTERNS OVER NOAM BY SUN... ALTHOUGH
FOR NC... BOTH RESULT IN A FLAT LIGHT NW OR WNW MID LEVEL FLOW WITH
NO MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT AND NO REAL CHANCE TO GET ANY DECENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE.
AS SUCH... WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY... WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING
BACK UP JUST ABOVE NORMAL. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM MONDAY...

CIRRUS AND CALM WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING SSW SURFACE WIND THAT WILL BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO
THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS MAINLY AT KINT/KGSO DURING THE MIDDAY-EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE ONSHORE
DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS...THE WESTERN EDGE
OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD BASES AROUND 3500-
4000 FT AT KFAY AND KRWI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES...AND ASSOCIATED PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUE...
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE-WED...MAINLY FROM KRDU AND
KRWI NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 200726
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
326 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE - AND PRECEDING SURFACE COLD
FRONT - THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM MONDAY...

A DEAMPLIFYING SOUTHERN STREAM MID-UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN
TN...AND PRECEDING AREA OF CIRRUS AT 07Z...WILL CONTINUE ENE ACROSS
NC/VA THROUGH NOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER
CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...AS A STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF MAXIMUM
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT (~60 M/12 HR) AMPLIFY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND LOWER OH VALLEY. CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE
WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE DEPARTING HEELS OF THE ONES FROM SOUTHERN
STREAM...WHILE THE LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ALSO PROMOTES THE ONSHORE
DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
MODERATE IN RETURN/WARMING SW FLOW...INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

TONIGHT: THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS MORNING TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
OVERNIGHT...WILL CAUSE A MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND AND ASSOCIATED VIRGA
OR ISOLATED SPRINKLES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 06-12Z.
A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER/BELOW 10 THOUSAND FT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
OCCURRENCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. NOT AS COOL...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST...COMMENCING AIR MASS
MODIFICATION. LOW LEVEL RETURN EXPECTED TO BE SWLY BY AFTERNOON WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS PROBABLE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
REBOUND ABOUT 10M FROM LEVELS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS
MAX TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. FACTORING IN ADDITIONAL
WARMING FROM THE LOW LEVEL SW FLOW SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NEAR 70 TO THE
LOWER 70S.

MONDAY NIGHT...L/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. UNDERGOES
AMPLIFICATION THANKS TO A S/W CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE TAILE ND OF THIS S/W WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
NIGHT...GENERATING AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE 8000-15000FT LAYER MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO
INITIATE SOME PRECIP BUT THE SUB CLOUD LAYER STILL QUITE DRY.
THUS...EXPECT NOTHING WORSE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF...AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES OUR REGION. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...

FOR TUE-WED: A MID LEVEL VORTEX IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER LK
ERIE AND PUSH SSE THROUGH WRN PA TUE... THEN DROP TO THE DC VICINITY
BY WED MORNING... AND WOBBLE NORTHWARD OVER THE MIDATLANTIC COAST
WED/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW SETS UP TUE OVER CENTRAL NC
WITH ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WHICH
PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUE EVENING... INTRODUCING COOLER
AIR AS A NOSE OF CANADIAN-SOURCE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NNW. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE MID CLOUDS TO START TUE AS THE 700 MB
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LUNCHTIME BUT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY LOWER BROKEN CLOUDS (ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE TOWERS) ACROSS THE NE AND EAST AS AN ELEVATED
MOIST LAYER AT 850-700 MB SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MOISTURE RETURN IN THE LOWER LEVELS... ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH THE DIGGING VORTEX ALOFT LOOK QUITE LOW. BUT
THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF DPVA AS STRONG VORTICITY LOBES
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW... WHICH MAY PARTIALLY COMPENSATE
FOR THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE. NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY
JUXTAPOSED WITH THE BEST DYNAMIC LIFT MAY STILL SEE A QUICK SPRINKLE
TUE EVENING/NIGHT... SO WILL LEAVE IN THE EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE NE. THE ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE WILL CAUSE THE
LOW TO SHIFT NE WED... AND WITH JUST WEAKER AND SHEARED VORTICITY
DIVING SE OVER CENTRAL NC AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN... WED SHOULD REMAIN DRY EVEN IN THE NE CWA... ALTHOUGH THIS
AREA SHOULD SEE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE WED. EXPECT WARM HIGHS TUE TO
REFLECT THE MILD THICKNESSES... 69-75. LOWS SHOULD SLIP BACK INTO
THE 40S AREAWIDE TUE NIGHT POST-FRONT... THEN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS OF 62-67 WED AS THICKNESSES DROP BACK INTO THE 1330S...
ROUGHLY 25 M BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WED NIGHT 40-45.

FOR THU-SUN: THE DRY PATTERN LOOKS VERY LIKELY TO PERSIST. THE
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOWS TO OUR NE SHIFT FURTHER NE AWAY FROM NC
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS A PORTION OF THE CANADIAN-SOURCE HIGH
BREAKS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY AND BUILDS GRADUALLY
TOWARD NC FROM THE WNW. LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT FROM THE
NW... AND THE DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ENSURE DECENT SUNSHINE AND
MIXING. EXPECT ANOTHER BELOW-NORMAL DAY THU... WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S... BUT THEN THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER WITH THEIR HANDLING OF A WEAK
BUT FULL-LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS THU. THE GFS
FOCUSES ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH... DRAWING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SOUTHEAST INTO THE VORTEX OFF NEW ENGLAND AND PROGRESSING THE
ENTIRE LOW/TROUGH OFF THE COAST BY SAT... FOLLOWED BY STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER TX AND THE GULF STATES SUNDAY. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND PLACES GREATER IMPORTANCE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE PLAINS TROUGH... RESULTING IN A CLOSED LOW OVER ERN TX FRI WHICH
THEN DROPS INTO THE NW GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL OF THIS RESULTS IN
TWO VERY DIFFERENT LONGWAVE PATTERNS OVER NOAM BY SUN... ALTHOUGH
FOR NC... BOTH RESULT IN A FLAT LIGHT NW OR WNW MID LEVEL FLOW WITH
NO MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT AND NO REAL CHANCE TO GET ANY DECENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE.
AS SUCH... WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY... WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING
BACK UP JUST ABOVE NORMAL. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM MONDAY...

CIRRUS AND CALM WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING SSW SURFACE WIND THAT WILL BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO
THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS MAINLY AT KINT/KGSO DURING THE MIDDAY-EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE ONSHORE
DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS...THE WESTERN EDGE
OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD BASES AROUND 3500-
4000 FT AT KFAY AND KRWI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES...AND ASSOCIATED PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUE...
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE-WED...MAINLY FROM KRDU AND
KRWI NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 200626
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
225 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE - AND PRECEDING SURFACE COLD
FRONT - THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 954 PM SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER WV WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY... LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL SET UP IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE ONE POTENTIAL
MITIGATING FACTOR IS AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS TO THE WEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A THINNER AREA
TO THE SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER JET... HOWEVER GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE BRUNT OF THIS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA... LEAVING JUST A FEW THIN AREAS OF CIRRUS CROSSING THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MID 30S IN OUTLYING AREAS. PATCHY
FROST IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS... MOSTLY CONFINED TO ELEVATED
SURFACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST...COMMENCING AIR MASS
MODIFICATION. LOW LEVEL RETURN EXPECTED TO BE SWLY BY AFTERNOON WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS PROBABLE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
REBOUND ABOUT 10M FROM LEVELS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS
MAX TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. FACTORING IN ADDITIONAL
WARMING FROM THE LOW LEVEL SW FLOW SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NEAR 70 TO THE
LOWER 70S.

MONDAY NIGHT...L/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. UNDERGOES
AMPLIFICATION THANKS TO A S/W CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE TAILE ND OF THIS S/W WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
NIGHT...GENERATING AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE 8000-15000FT LAYER MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO
INITIATE SOME PRECIP BUT THE SUB CLOUD LAYER STILL QUITE DRY.
THUS...EXPECT NOTHING WORSE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF...AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES OUR REGION. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...

FOR TUE-WED: A MID LEVEL VORTEX IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER LK
ERIE AND PUSH SSE THROUGH WRN PA TUE... THEN DROP TO THE DC VICINITY
BY WED MORNING... AND WOBBLE NORTHWARD OVER THE MIDATLANTIC COAST
WED/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW SETS UP TUE OVER CENTRAL NC
WITH ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WHICH
PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUE EVENING... INTRODUCING COOLER
AIR AS A NOSE OF CANADIAN-SOURCE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NNW. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE MID CLOUDS TO START TUE AS THE 700 MB
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LUNCHTIME BUT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY LOWER BROKEN CLOUDS (ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE TOWERS) ACROSS THE NE AND EAST AS AN ELEVATED
MOIST LAYER AT 850-700 MB SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MOISTURE RETURN IN THE LOWER LEVELS... ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH THE DIGGING VORTEX ALOFT LOOK QUITE LOW. BUT
THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF DPVA AS STRONG VORTICITY LOBES
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW... WHICH MAY PARTIALLY COMPENSATE
FOR THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE. NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY
JUXTAPOSED WITH THE BEST DYNAMIC LIFT MAY STILL SEE A QUICK SPRINKLE
TUE EVENING/NIGHT... SO WILL LEAVE IN THE EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE NE. THE ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE WILL CAUSE THE
LOW TO SHIFT NE WED... AND WITH JUST WEAKER AND SHEARED VORTICITY
DIVING SE OVER CENTRAL NC AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN... WED SHOULD REMAIN DRY EVEN IN THE NE CWA... ALTHOUGH THIS
AREA SHOULD SEE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE WED. EXPECT WARM HIGHS TUE TO
REFLECT THE MILD THICKNESSES... 69-75. LOWS SHOULD SLIP BACK INTO
THE 40S AREAWIDE TUE NIGHT POST-FRONT... THEN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS OF 62-67 WED AS THICKNESSES DROP BACK INTO THE 1330S...
ROUGHLY 25 M BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WED NIGHT 40-45.

FOR THU-SUN: THE DRY PATTERN LOOKS VERY LIKELY TO PERSIST. THE
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOWS TO OUR NE SHIFT FURTHER NE AWAY FROM NC
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS A PORTION OF THE CANADIAN-SOURCE HIGH
BREAKS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY AND BUILDS GRADUALLY
TOWARD NC FROM THE WNW. LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT FROM THE
NW... AND THE DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ENSURE DECENT SUNSHINE AND
MIXING. EXPECT ANOTHER BELOW-NORMAL DAY THU... WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S... BUT THEN THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER WITH THEIR HANDLING OF A WEAK
BUT FULL-LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS THU. THE GFS
FOCUSES ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH... DRAWING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SOUTHEAST INTO THE VORTEX OFF NEW ENGLAND AND PROGRESSING THE
ENTIRE LOW/TROUGH OFF THE COAST BY SAT... FOLLOWED BY STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER TX AND THE GULF STATES SUNDAY. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND PLACES GREATER IMPORTANCE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE PLAINS TROUGH... RESULTING IN A CLOSED LOW OVER ERN TX FRI WHICH
THEN DROPS INTO THE NW GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL OF THIS RESULTS IN
TWO VERY DIFFERENT LONGWAVE PATTERNS OVER NOAM BY SUN... ALTHOUGH
FOR NC... BOTH RESULT IN A FLAT LIGHT NW OR WNW MID LEVEL FLOW WITH
NO MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT AND NO REAL CHANCE TO GET ANY DECENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE.
AS SUCH... WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY... WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING
BACK UP JUST ABOVE NORMAL. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM MONDAY...

CIRRUS AND CALM WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING SSW SURFACE WIND THAT WILL BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO
THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS MAINLY AT KINT/KGSO DURING THE MIDDAY-EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE ONSHORE
DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS...THE WESTERN EDGE
OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD BASES AROUND 3500-
4000 FT AT KFAY AND KRWI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES...AND ASSOCIATED PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUE...
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE-WED...MAINLY FROM KRDU AND
KRWI NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...SEC
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 200626
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
225 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NC THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TODAY. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER ONE - AND PRECEDING SURFACE COLD
FRONT - THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE TUE
AND TUE NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 954 PM SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER WV WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY... LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL SET UP IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE ONE POTENTIAL
MITIGATING FACTOR IS AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS TO THE WEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A THINNER AREA
TO THE SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER JET... HOWEVER GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE BRUNT OF THIS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA... LEAVING JUST A FEW THIN AREAS OF CIRRUS CROSSING THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MID 30S IN OUTLYING AREAS. PATCHY
FROST IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS... MOSTLY CONFINED TO ELEVATED
SURFACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST...COMMENCING AIR MASS
MODIFICATION. LOW LEVEL RETURN EXPECTED TO BE SWLY BY AFTERNOON WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS PROBABLE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
REBOUND ABOUT 10M FROM LEVELS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS
MAX TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. FACTORING IN ADDITIONAL
WARMING FROM THE LOW LEVEL SW FLOW SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NEAR 70 TO THE
LOWER 70S.

MONDAY NIGHT...L/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. UNDERGOES
AMPLIFICATION THANKS TO A S/W CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE TAILE ND OF THIS S/W WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
NIGHT...GENERATING AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE 8000-15000FT LAYER MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO
INITIATE SOME PRECIP BUT THE SUB CLOUD LAYER STILL QUITE DRY.
THUS...EXPECT NOTHING WORSE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF...AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES OUR REGION. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...

FOR TUE-WED: A MID LEVEL VORTEX IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER LK
ERIE AND PUSH SSE THROUGH WRN PA TUE... THEN DROP TO THE DC VICINITY
BY WED MORNING... AND WOBBLE NORTHWARD OVER THE MIDATLANTIC COAST
WED/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW SETS UP TUE OVER CENTRAL NC
WITH ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WHICH
PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUE EVENING... INTRODUCING COOLER
AIR AS A NOSE OF CANADIAN-SOURCE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NNW. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE MID CLOUDS TO START TUE AS THE 700 MB
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LUNCHTIME BUT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY LOWER BROKEN CLOUDS (ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE TOWERS) ACROSS THE NE AND EAST AS AN ELEVATED
MOIST LAYER AT 850-700 MB SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MOISTURE RETURN IN THE LOWER LEVELS... ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH THE DIGGING VORTEX ALOFT LOOK QUITE LOW. BUT
THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF DPVA AS STRONG VORTICITY LOBES
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW... WHICH MAY PARTIALLY COMPENSATE
FOR THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE. NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY
JUXTAPOSED WITH THE BEST DYNAMIC LIFT MAY STILL SEE A QUICK SPRINKLE
TUE EVENING/NIGHT... SO WILL LEAVE IN THE EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE NE. THE ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE WILL CAUSE THE
LOW TO SHIFT NE WED... AND WITH JUST WEAKER AND SHEARED VORTICITY
DIVING SE OVER CENTRAL NC AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN... WED SHOULD REMAIN DRY EVEN IN THE NE CWA... ALTHOUGH THIS
AREA SHOULD SEE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE WED. EXPECT WARM HIGHS TUE TO
REFLECT THE MILD THICKNESSES... 69-75. LOWS SHOULD SLIP BACK INTO
THE 40S AREAWIDE TUE NIGHT POST-FRONT... THEN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS OF 62-67 WED AS THICKNESSES DROP BACK INTO THE 1330S...
ROUGHLY 25 M BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WED NIGHT 40-45.

FOR THU-SUN: THE DRY PATTERN LOOKS VERY LIKELY TO PERSIST. THE
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOWS TO OUR NE SHIFT FURTHER NE AWAY FROM NC
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS A PORTION OF THE CANADIAN-SOURCE HIGH
BREAKS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY AND BUILDS GRADUALLY
TOWARD NC FROM THE WNW. LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT FROM THE
NW... AND THE DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ENSURE DECENT SUNSHINE AND
MIXING. EXPECT ANOTHER BELOW-NORMAL DAY THU... WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S... BUT THEN THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER WITH THEIR HANDLING OF A WEAK
BUT FULL-LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS THU. THE GFS
FOCUSES ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH... DRAWING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SOUTHEAST INTO THE VORTEX OFF NEW ENGLAND AND PROGRESSING THE
ENTIRE LOW/TROUGH OFF THE COAST BY SAT... FOLLOWED BY STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER TX AND THE GULF STATES SUNDAY. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND PLACES GREATER IMPORTANCE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE PLAINS TROUGH... RESULTING IN A CLOSED LOW OVER ERN TX FRI WHICH
THEN DROPS INTO THE NW GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL OF THIS RESULTS IN
TWO VERY DIFFERENT LONGWAVE PATTERNS OVER NOAM BY SUN... ALTHOUGH
FOR NC... BOTH RESULT IN A FLAT LIGHT NW OR WNW MID LEVEL FLOW WITH
NO MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT AND NO REAL CHANCE TO GET ANY DECENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE.
AS SUCH... WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY... WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING
BACK UP JUST ABOVE NORMAL. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM MONDAY...

CIRRUS AND CALM WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A
DEVELOPING SSW SURFACE WIND THAT WILL BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO
THE MID-UPPER TEENS KTS MAINLY AT KINT/KGSO DURING THE MIDDAY-EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE ONSHORE
DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS...THE WESTERN EDGE
OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD BASES AROUND 3500-
4000 FT AT KFAY AND KRWI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK: THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES...AND ASSOCIATED PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE TUE...
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE-WED...MAINLY FROM KRDU AND
KRWI NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...SEC
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...MWS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 200157
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
957 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING EASTWARD OFFSHORE ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 954 PM SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER WV WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY... LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL SET UP IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE ONE POTENTIAL
MITIGATING FACTOR IS AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS TO THE WEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A THINNER AREA
TO THE SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER JET... HOWEVER GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE BRUNT OF THIS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA... LEAVING JUST A FEW THIN AREAS OF CIRRUS CROSSING THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MID 30S IN OUTLYING AREAS. PATCHY
FROST IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS... MOSTLY CONFINED TO ELEVATED
SURFACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST...COMMENCING AIR MASS
MODIFICATION. LOW LEVEL RETURN EXPECTED TO BE SWLY BY AFTERNOON WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS PROBABLE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
REBOUND ABOUT 10M FROM LEVELS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS
MAX TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. FACTORING IN ADDITIONAL
WARMING FROM THE LOW LEVEL SW FLOW SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NEAR 70 TO THE
LOWER 70S.

MONDAY NIGHT...L/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. UNDERGOES
AMPLIFICATION THANKS TO A S/W CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE TAILE ND OF THIS S/W WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
NIGHT...GENERATING AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE 8000-15000FT LAYER MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO
INITIATE SOME PRECIP BUT THE SUB CLOUD LAYER STILL QUITE DRY.
THUS...EXPECT NOTHING WORSE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF...AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES OUR REGION. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...

FOR TUE-WED: A MID LEVEL VORTEX IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER LK
ERIE AND PUSH SSE THROUGH WRN PA TUE... THEN DROP TO THE DC VICINITY
BY WED MORNING... AND WOBBLE NORTHWARD OVER THE MIDATLANTIC COAST
WED/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW SETS UP TUE OVER CENTRAL NC
WITH ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WHICH
PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUE EVENING... INTRODUCING COOLER
AIR AS A NOSE OF CANADIAN-SOURCE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NNW. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE MID CLOUDS TO START TUE AS THE 700 MB
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LUNCHTIME BUT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY LOWER BROKEN CLOUDS (ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE TOWERS) ACROSS THE NE AND EAST AS AN ELEVATED
MOIST LAYER AT 850-700 MB SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MOISTURE RETURN IN THE LOWER LEVELS... ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH THE DIGGING VORTEX ALOFT LOOK QUITE LOW. BUT
THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF DPVA AS STRONG VORTICITY LOBES
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW... WHICH MAY PARTIALLY COMPENSATE
FOR THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE. NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY
JUXTAPOSED WITH THE BEST DYNAMIC LIFT MAY STILL SEE A QUICK SPRINKLE
TUE EVENING/NIGHT... SO WILL LEAVE IN THE EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE NE. THE ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE WILL CAUSE THE
LOW TO SHIFT NE WED... AND WITH JUST WEAKER AND SHEARED VORTICITY
DIVING SE OVER CENTRAL NC AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN... WED SHOULD REMAIN DRY EVEN IN THE NE CWA... ALTHOUGH THIS
AREA SHOULD SEE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE WED. EXPECT WARM HIGHS TUE TO
REFLECT THE MILD THICKNESSES... 69-75. LOWS SHOULD SLIP BACK INTO
THE 40S AREAWIDE TUE NIGHT POST-FRONT... THEN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS OF 62-67 WED AS THICKNESSES DROP BACK INTO THE 1330S...
ROUGHLY 25 M BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WED NIGHT 40-45.

FOR THU-SUN: THE DRY PATTERN LOOKS VERY LIKELY TO PERSIST. THE
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOWS TO OUR NE SHIFT FURTHER NE AWAY FROM NC
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS A PORTION OF THE CANADIAN-SOURCE HIGH
BREAKS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY AND BUILDS GRADUALLY
TOWARD NC FROM THE WNW. LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT FROM THE
NW... AND THE DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ENSURE DECENT SUNSHINE AND
MIXING. EXPECT ANOTHER BELOW-NORMAL DAY THU... WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S... BUT THEN THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER WITH THEIR HANDLING OF A WEAK
BUT FULL-LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS THU. THE GFS
FOCUSES ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH... DRAWING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SOUTHEAST INTO THE VORTEX OFF NEW ENGLAND AND PROGRESSING THE
ENTIRE LOW/TROUGH OFF THE COAST BY SAT... FOLLOWED BY STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER TX AND THE GULF STATES SUNDAY. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND PLACES GREATER IMPORTANCE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE PLAINS TROUGH... RESULTING IN A CLOSED LOW OVER ERN TX FRI WHICH
THEN DROPS INTO THE NW GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL OF THIS RESULTS IN
TWO VERY DIFFERENT LONGWAVE PATTERNS OVER NOAM BY SUN... ALTHOUGH
FOR NC... BOTH RESULT IN A FLAT LIGHT NW OR WNW MID LEVEL FLOW WITH
NO MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT AND NO REAL CHANCE TO GET ANY DECENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE.
AS SUCH... WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY... WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING
BACK UP JUST ABOVE NORMAL. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD TONIGHT THEN DRIFT
EAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
EVENING BECOMING CALM... THEN INCREASING BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS (WITH WIND SPEEDS BY AFTERNOON
GENERALLY IN THE 7 TO 11 KT RANGE... WITH POSSIBLY A FEW WIND GUSTS
TO 15-17 KTS AT KGSO/KINT). HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

THRE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATING
AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL
CAUSE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS OVER CENTRAL NC TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE MVFR
CRITERIA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT GRADUALLY NEWD THU INTO
FRIDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...SEC
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BSD/WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 200157
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
957 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING EASTWARD OFFSHORE ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 954 PM SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER WV WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY... LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL SET UP IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE ONE POTENTIAL
MITIGATING FACTOR IS AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS TO THE WEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A THINNER AREA
TO THE SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER JET... HOWEVER GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE BRUNT OF THIS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA... LEAVING JUST A FEW THIN AREAS OF CIRRUS CROSSING THE
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MID 30S IN OUTLYING AREAS. PATCHY
FROST IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS... MOSTLY CONFINED TO ELEVATED
SURFACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST...COMMENCING AIR MASS
MODIFICATION. LOW LEVEL RETURN EXPECTED TO BE SWLY BY AFTERNOON WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS PROBABLE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
REBOUND ABOUT 10M FROM LEVELS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS
MAX TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. FACTORING IN ADDITIONAL
WARMING FROM THE LOW LEVEL SW FLOW SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NEAR 70 TO THE
LOWER 70S.

MONDAY NIGHT...L/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. UNDERGOES
AMPLIFICATION THANKS TO A S/W CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE TAILE ND OF THIS S/W WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
NIGHT...GENERATING AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE 8000-15000FT LAYER MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO
INITIATE SOME PRECIP BUT THE SUB CLOUD LAYER STILL QUITE DRY.
THUS...EXPECT NOTHING WORSE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF...AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES OUR REGION. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...

FOR TUE-WED: A MID LEVEL VORTEX IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER LK
ERIE AND PUSH SSE THROUGH WRN PA TUE... THEN DROP TO THE DC VICINITY
BY WED MORNING... AND WOBBLE NORTHWARD OVER THE MIDATLANTIC COAST
WED/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW SETS UP TUE OVER CENTRAL NC
WITH ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WHICH
PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUE EVENING... INTRODUCING COOLER
AIR AS A NOSE OF CANADIAN-SOURCE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NNW. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE MID CLOUDS TO START TUE AS THE 700 MB
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LUNCHTIME BUT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY LOWER BROKEN CLOUDS (ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE TOWERS) ACROSS THE NE AND EAST AS AN ELEVATED
MOIST LAYER AT 850-700 MB SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MOISTURE RETURN IN THE LOWER LEVELS... ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH THE DIGGING VORTEX ALOFT LOOK QUITE LOW. BUT
THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF DPVA AS STRONG VORTICITY LOBES
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW... WHICH MAY PARTIALLY COMPENSATE
FOR THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE. NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY
JUXTAPOSED WITH THE BEST DYNAMIC LIFT MAY STILL SEE A QUICK SPRINKLE
TUE EVENING/NIGHT... SO WILL LEAVE IN THE EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE NE. THE ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE WILL CAUSE THE
LOW TO SHIFT NE WED... AND WITH JUST WEAKER AND SHEARED VORTICITY
DIVING SE OVER CENTRAL NC AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN... WED SHOULD REMAIN DRY EVEN IN THE NE CWA... ALTHOUGH THIS
AREA SHOULD SEE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE WED. EXPECT WARM HIGHS TUE TO
REFLECT THE MILD THICKNESSES... 69-75. LOWS SHOULD SLIP BACK INTO
THE 40S AREAWIDE TUE NIGHT POST-FRONT... THEN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS OF 62-67 WED AS THICKNESSES DROP BACK INTO THE 1330S...
ROUGHLY 25 M BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WED NIGHT 40-45.

FOR THU-SUN: THE DRY PATTERN LOOKS VERY LIKELY TO PERSIST. THE
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOWS TO OUR NE SHIFT FURTHER NE AWAY FROM NC
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS A PORTION OF THE CANADIAN-SOURCE HIGH
BREAKS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY AND BUILDS GRADUALLY
TOWARD NC FROM THE WNW. LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT FROM THE
NW... AND THE DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ENSURE DECENT SUNSHINE AND
MIXING. EXPECT ANOTHER BELOW-NORMAL DAY THU... WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S... BUT THEN THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER WITH THEIR HANDLING OF A WEAK
BUT FULL-LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS THU. THE GFS
FOCUSES ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH... DRAWING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SOUTHEAST INTO THE VORTEX OFF NEW ENGLAND AND PROGRESSING THE
ENTIRE LOW/TROUGH OFF THE COAST BY SAT... FOLLOWED BY STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER TX AND THE GULF STATES SUNDAY. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND PLACES GREATER IMPORTANCE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE PLAINS TROUGH... RESULTING IN A CLOSED LOW OVER ERN TX FRI WHICH
THEN DROPS INTO THE NW GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL OF THIS RESULTS IN
TWO VERY DIFFERENT LONGWAVE PATTERNS OVER NOAM BY SUN... ALTHOUGH
FOR NC... BOTH RESULT IN A FLAT LIGHT NW OR WNW MID LEVEL FLOW WITH
NO MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT AND NO REAL CHANCE TO GET ANY DECENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE.
AS SUCH... WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY... WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING
BACK UP JUST ABOVE NORMAL. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD TONIGHT THEN DRIFT
EAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
EVENING BECOMING CALM... THEN INCREASING BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS (WITH WIND SPEEDS BY AFTERNOON
GENERALLY IN THE 7 TO 11 KT RANGE... WITH POSSIBLY A FEW WIND GUSTS
TO 15-17 KTS AT KGSO/KINT). HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

THRE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATING
AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL
CAUSE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS OVER CENTRAL NC TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE MVFR
CRITERIA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT GRADUALLY NEWD THU INTO
FRIDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SEC
NEAR TERM...SEC
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BSD/WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 192352
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
751 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT... AND
THEN PUSH EAST AND OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID WEEK... WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL NC
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM ALONG WITH
A LIGHT/CALM WIND REGIME WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE
40S AFTER SUNSET THEN GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND
40 OVERNIGHT. THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS MAY DIP INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE WHERE TEMPS DROP BELOW 37 DEGREES. AT
THIS TIME EXPECT THE FROST TO BE VERY PATCHY AND LIGHT...LIMITED TO
ROOFTOPS AND ON THE TOPS OF CARS.

EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT
AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. CURRENT CIRRUS
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...LEAVING
ONE TO WONDER IF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE TOO WET WITH THEIR RH DEPICTION
ALOFT LATER TONIGHT. THUS PLAN TO FORECAST TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN ANTICIPATION THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THIN AND
PATCHY. IF THE GFS/ECMWF END UP VERIFYING...THEN MIN TEMPS MAY BE 2-
4 DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST AND LIGHT PATCHY FROST WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST...COMMENCING AIR MASS
MODIFICATION. LOW LEVEL RETURN EXPECTED TO BE SWLY BY AFTERNOON WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS PROBABLE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
REBOUND ABOUT 10M FROM LEVELS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS
MAX TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. FACTORING IN ADDITIONAL
WARMING FROM THE LOW LEVEL SW FLOW SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NEAR 70 TO THE
LOWER 70S.

MONDAY NIGHT...L/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. UNDERGOES
AMPLIFICATION THANKS TO A S/W CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE TAILE ND OF THIS S/W WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
NIGHT...GENERATING AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE 8000-15000FT LAYER MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO
INITIATE SOME PRECIP BUT THE SUB CLOUD LAYER STILL QUITE DRY.
THUS...EXPECT NOTHING WORSE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF...AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES OUR REGION. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...

FOR TUE-WED: A MID LEVEL VORTEX IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER LK
ERIE AND PUSH SSE THROUGH WRN PA TUE... THEN DROP TO THE DC VICINITY
BY WED MORNING... AND WOBBLE NORTHWARD OVER THE MIDATLANTIC COAST
WED/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW SETS UP TUE OVER CENTRAL NC
WITH ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WHICH
PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUE EVENING... INTRODUCING COOLER
AIR AS A NOSE OF CANADIAN-SOURCE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NNW. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE MID CLOUDS TO START TUE AS THE 700 MB
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LUNCHTIME BUT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY LOWER BROKEN CLOUDS (ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE TOWERS) ACROSS THE NE AND EAST AS AN ELEVATED
MOIST LAYER AT 850-700 MB SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MOISTURE RETURN IN THE LOWER LEVELS... ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH THE DIGGING VORTEX ALOFT LOOK QUITE LOW. BUT
THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF DPVA AS STRONG VORTICITY LOBES
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW... WHICH MAY PARTIALLY COMPENSATE
FOR THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE. NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY
JUXTAPOSED WITH THE BEST DYNAMIC LIFT MAY STILL SEE A QUICK SPRINKLE
TUE EVENING/NIGHT... SO WILL LEAVE IN THE EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE NE. THE ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE WILL CAUSE THE
LOW TO SHIFT NE WED... AND WITH JUST WEAKER AND SHEARED VORTICITY
DIVING SE OVER CENTRAL NC AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN... WED SHOULD REMAIN DRY EVEN IN THE NE CWA... ALTHOUGH THIS
AREA SHOULD SEE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE WED. EXPECT WARM HIGHS TUE TO
REFLECT THE MILD THICKNESSES... 69-75. LOWS SHOULD SLIP BACK INTO
THE 40S AREAWIDE TUE NIGHT POST-FRONT... THEN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS OF 62-67 WED AS THICKNESSES DROP BACK INTO THE 1330S...
ROUGHLY 25 M BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WED NIGHT 40-45.

FOR THU-SUN: THE DRY PATTERN LOOKS VERY LIKELY TO PERSIST. THE
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOWS TO OUR NE SHIFT FURTHER NE AWAY FROM NC
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS A PORTION OF THE CANADIAN-SOURCE HIGH
BREAKS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY AND BUILDS GRADUALLY
TOWARD NC FROM THE WNW. LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT FROM THE
NW... AND THE DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ENSURE DECENT SUNSHINE AND
MIXING. EXPECT ANOTHER BELOW-NORMAL DAY THU... WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S... BUT THEN THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER WITH THEIR HANDLING OF A WEAK
BUT FULL-LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS THU. THE GFS
FOCUSES ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH... DRAWING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SOUTHEAST INTO THE VORTEX OFF NEW ENGLAND AND PROGRESSING THE
ENTIRE LOW/TROUGH OFF THE COAST BY SAT... FOLLOWED BY STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER TX AND THE GULF STATES SUNDAY. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND PLACES GREATER IMPORTANCE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE PLAINS TROUGH... RESULTING IN A CLOSED LOW OVER ERN TX FRI WHICH
THEN DROPS INTO THE NW GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL OF THIS RESULTS IN
TWO VERY DIFFERENT LONGWAVE PATTERNS OVER NOAM BY SUN... ALTHOUGH
FOR NC... BOTH RESULT IN A FLAT LIGHT NW OR WNW MID LEVEL FLOW WITH
NO MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT AND NO REAL CHANCE TO GET ANY DECENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE.
AS SUCH... WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY... WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING
BACK UP JUST ABOVE NORMAL. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD TONIGHT THEN DRIFT
EAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
EVENING BECOMING CALM... THEN INCREASING BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS (WITH WIND SPEEDS BY AFTERNOON
GENERALLY IN THE 7 TO 11 KT RANGE... WITH POSSIBLY A FEW WIND GUSTS
TO 15-17 KTS AT KGSO/KINT). HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

THRE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATING
AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL
CAUSE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS OVER CENTRAL NC TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE MVFR
CRITERIA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT GRADUALLY NEWD THU INTO
FRIDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/GIH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BSD/WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 192352
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
751 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT... AND
THEN PUSH EAST AND OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID WEEK... WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL NC
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM ALONG WITH
A LIGHT/CALM WIND REGIME WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE
40S AFTER SUNSET THEN GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND
40 OVERNIGHT. THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS MAY DIP INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE WHERE TEMPS DROP BELOW 37 DEGREES. AT
THIS TIME EXPECT THE FROST TO BE VERY PATCHY AND LIGHT...LIMITED TO
ROOFTOPS AND ON THE TOPS OF CARS.

EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT
AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. CURRENT CIRRUS
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...LEAVING
ONE TO WONDER IF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE TOO WET WITH THEIR RH DEPICTION
ALOFT LATER TONIGHT. THUS PLAN TO FORECAST TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN ANTICIPATION THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THIN AND
PATCHY. IF THE GFS/ECMWF END UP VERIFYING...THEN MIN TEMPS MAY BE 2-
4 DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST AND LIGHT PATCHY FROST WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST...COMMENCING AIR MASS
MODIFICATION. LOW LEVEL RETURN EXPECTED TO BE SWLY BY AFTERNOON WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS PROBABLE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
REBOUND ABOUT 10M FROM LEVELS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS
MAX TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. FACTORING IN ADDITIONAL
WARMING FROM THE LOW LEVEL SW FLOW SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NEAR 70 TO THE
LOWER 70S.

MONDAY NIGHT...L/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. UNDERGOES
AMPLIFICATION THANKS TO A S/W CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE TAILE ND OF THIS S/W WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
NIGHT...GENERATING AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE 8000-15000FT LAYER MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO
INITIATE SOME PRECIP BUT THE SUB CLOUD LAYER STILL QUITE DRY.
THUS...EXPECT NOTHING WORSE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF...AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES OUR REGION. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...

FOR TUE-WED: A MID LEVEL VORTEX IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER LK
ERIE AND PUSH SSE THROUGH WRN PA TUE... THEN DROP TO THE DC VICINITY
BY WED MORNING... AND WOBBLE NORTHWARD OVER THE MIDATLANTIC COAST
WED/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW SETS UP TUE OVER CENTRAL NC
WITH ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WHICH
PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUE EVENING... INTRODUCING COOLER
AIR AS A NOSE OF CANADIAN-SOURCE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NNW. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE MID CLOUDS TO START TUE AS THE 700 MB
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LUNCHTIME BUT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY LOWER BROKEN CLOUDS (ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE TOWERS) ACROSS THE NE AND EAST AS AN ELEVATED
MOIST LAYER AT 850-700 MB SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MOISTURE RETURN IN THE LOWER LEVELS... ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH THE DIGGING VORTEX ALOFT LOOK QUITE LOW. BUT
THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF DPVA AS STRONG VORTICITY LOBES
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW... WHICH MAY PARTIALLY COMPENSATE
FOR THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE. NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY
JUXTAPOSED WITH THE BEST DYNAMIC LIFT MAY STILL SEE A QUICK SPRINKLE
TUE EVENING/NIGHT... SO WILL LEAVE IN THE EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE NE. THE ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE WILL CAUSE THE
LOW TO SHIFT NE WED... AND WITH JUST WEAKER AND SHEARED VORTICITY
DIVING SE OVER CENTRAL NC AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN... WED SHOULD REMAIN DRY EVEN IN THE NE CWA... ALTHOUGH THIS
AREA SHOULD SEE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE WED. EXPECT WARM HIGHS TUE TO
REFLECT THE MILD THICKNESSES... 69-75. LOWS SHOULD SLIP BACK INTO
THE 40S AREAWIDE TUE NIGHT POST-FRONT... THEN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS OF 62-67 WED AS THICKNESSES DROP BACK INTO THE 1330S...
ROUGHLY 25 M BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WED NIGHT 40-45.

FOR THU-SUN: THE DRY PATTERN LOOKS VERY LIKELY TO PERSIST. THE
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOWS TO OUR NE SHIFT FURTHER NE AWAY FROM NC
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS A PORTION OF THE CANADIAN-SOURCE HIGH
BREAKS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY AND BUILDS GRADUALLY
TOWARD NC FROM THE WNW. LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT FROM THE
NW... AND THE DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ENSURE DECENT SUNSHINE AND
MIXING. EXPECT ANOTHER BELOW-NORMAL DAY THU... WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S... BUT THEN THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER WITH THEIR HANDLING OF A WEAK
BUT FULL-LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS THU. THE GFS
FOCUSES ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH... DRAWING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SOUTHEAST INTO THE VORTEX OFF NEW ENGLAND AND PROGRESSING THE
ENTIRE LOW/TROUGH OFF THE COAST BY SAT... FOLLOWED BY STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER TX AND THE GULF STATES SUNDAY. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND PLACES GREATER IMPORTANCE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE PLAINS TROUGH... RESULTING IN A CLOSED LOW OVER ERN TX FRI WHICH
THEN DROPS INTO THE NW GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL OF THIS RESULTS IN
TWO VERY DIFFERENT LONGWAVE PATTERNS OVER NOAM BY SUN... ALTHOUGH
FOR NC... BOTH RESULT IN A FLAT LIGHT NW OR WNW MID LEVEL FLOW WITH
NO MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT AND NO REAL CHANCE TO GET ANY DECENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE.
AS SUCH... WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY... WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING
BACK UP JUST ABOVE NORMAL. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD TONIGHT THEN DRIFT
EAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
EVENING BECOMING CALM... THEN INCREASING BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS (WITH WIND SPEEDS BY AFTERNOON
GENERALLY IN THE 7 TO 11 KT RANGE... WITH POSSIBLY A FEW WIND GUSTS
TO 15-17 KTS AT KGSO/KINT). HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

THRE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATING
AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL
CAUSE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS OVER CENTRAL NC TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE MVFR
CRITERIA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT GRADUALLY NEWD THU INTO
FRIDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/GIH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BSD/WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 192352
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
751 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT... AND
THEN PUSH EAST AND OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID WEEK... WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL NC
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM ALONG WITH
A LIGHT/CALM WIND REGIME WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE
40S AFTER SUNSET THEN GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND
40 OVERNIGHT. THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS MAY DIP INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE WHERE TEMPS DROP BELOW 37 DEGREES. AT
THIS TIME EXPECT THE FROST TO BE VERY PATCHY AND LIGHT...LIMITED TO
ROOFTOPS AND ON THE TOPS OF CARS.

EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT
AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. CURRENT CIRRUS
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...LEAVING
ONE TO WONDER IF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE TOO WET WITH THEIR RH DEPICTION
ALOFT LATER TONIGHT. THUS PLAN TO FORECAST TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN ANTICIPATION THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THIN AND
PATCHY. IF THE GFS/ECMWF END UP VERIFYING...THEN MIN TEMPS MAY BE 2-
4 DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST AND LIGHT PATCHY FROST WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST...COMMENCING AIR MASS
MODIFICATION. LOW LEVEL RETURN EXPECTED TO BE SWLY BY AFTERNOON WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS PROBABLE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
REBOUND ABOUT 10M FROM LEVELS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS
MAX TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. FACTORING IN ADDITIONAL
WARMING FROM THE LOW LEVEL SW FLOW SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NEAR 70 TO THE
LOWER 70S.

MONDAY NIGHT...L/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. UNDERGOES
AMPLIFICATION THANKS TO A S/W CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE TAILE ND OF THIS S/W WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
NIGHT...GENERATING AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE 8000-15000FT LAYER MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO
INITIATE SOME PRECIP BUT THE SUB CLOUD LAYER STILL QUITE DRY.
THUS...EXPECT NOTHING WORSE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF...AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES OUR REGION. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...

FOR TUE-WED: A MID LEVEL VORTEX IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER LK
ERIE AND PUSH SSE THROUGH WRN PA TUE... THEN DROP TO THE DC VICINITY
BY WED MORNING... AND WOBBLE NORTHWARD OVER THE MIDATLANTIC COAST
WED/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW SETS UP TUE OVER CENTRAL NC
WITH ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WHICH
PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUE EVENING... INTRODUCING COOLER
AIR AS A NOSE OF CANADIAN-SOURCE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NNW. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE MID CLOUDS TO START TUE AS THE 700 MB
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LUNCHTIME BUT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY LOWER BROKEN CLOUDS (ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE TOWERS) ACROSS THE NE AND EAST AS AN ELEVATED
MOIST LAYER AT 850-700 MB SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MOISTURE RETURN IN THE LOWER LEVELS... ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH THE DIGGING VORTEX ALOFT LOOK QUITE LOW. BUT
THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF DPVA AS STRONG VORTICITY LOBES
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW... WHICH MAY PARTIALLY COMPENSATE
FOR THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE. NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY
JUXTAPOSED WITH THE BEST DYNAMIC LIFT MAY STILL SEE A QUICK SPRINKLE
TUE EVENING/NIGHT... SO WILL LEAVE IN THE EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE NE. THE ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE WILL CAUSE THE
LOW TO SHIFT NE WED... AND WITH JUST WEAKER AND SHEARED VORTICITY
DIVING SE OVER CENTRAL NC AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN... WED SHOULD REMAIN DRY EVEN IN THE NE CWA... ALTHOUGH THIS
AREA SHOULD SEE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE WED. EXPECT WARM HIGHS TUE TO
REFLECT THE MILD THICKNESSES... 69-75. LOWS SHOULD SLIP BACK INTO
THE 40S AREAWIDE TUE NIGHT POST-FRONT... THEN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS OF 62-67 WED AS THICKNESSES DROP BACK INTO THE 1330S...
ROUGHLY 25 M BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WED NIGHT 40-45.

FOR THU-SUN: THE DRY PATTERN LOOKS VERY LIKELY TO PERSIST. THE
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOWS TO OUR NE SHIFT FURTHER NE AWAY FROM NC
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS A PORTION OF THE CANADIAN-SOURCE HIGH
BREAKS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY AND BUILDS GRADUALLY
TOWARD NC FROM THE WNW. LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT FROM THE
NW... AND THE DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ENSURE DECENT SUNSHINE AND
MIXING. EXPECT ANOTHER BELOW-NORMAL DAY THU... WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S... BUT THEN THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER WITH THEIR HANDLING OF A WEAK
BUT FULL-LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS THU. THE GFS
FOCUSES ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH... DRAWING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SOUTHEAST INTO THE VORTEX OFF NEW ENGLAND AND PROGRESSING THE
ENTIRE LOW/TROUGH OFF THE COAST BY SAT... FOLLOWED BY STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER TX AND THE GULF STATES SUNDAY. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND PLACES GREATER IMPORTANCE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE PLAINS TROUGH... RESULTING IN A CLOSED LOW OVER ERN TX FRI WHICH
THEN DROPS INTO THE NW GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL OF THIS RESULTS IN
TWO VERY DIFFERENT LONGWAVE PATTERNS OVER NOAM BY SUN... ALTHOUGH
FOR NC... BOTH RESULT IN A FLAT LIGHT NW OR WNW MID LEVEL FLOW WITH
NO MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT AND NO REAL CHANCE TO GET ANY DECENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE.
AS SUCH... WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY... WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING
BACK UP JUST ABOVE NORMAL. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD TONIGHT THEN DRIFT
EAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
EVENING BECOMING CALM... THEN INCREASING BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS (WITH WIND SPEEDS BY AFTERNOON
GENERALLY IN THE 7 TO 11 KT RANGE... WITH POSSIBLY A FEW WIND GUSTS
TO 15-17 KTS AT KGSO/KINT). HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

THRE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATING
AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL
CAUSE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS OVER CENTRAL NC TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE MVFR
CRITERIA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT GRADUALLY NEWD THU INTO
FRIDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/GIH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BSD/WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 192352
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
751 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT... AND
THEN PUSH EAST AND OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID WEEK... WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL NC
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM ALONG WITH
A LIGHT/CALM WIND REGIME WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE
40S AFTER SUNSET THEN GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND
40 OVERNIGHT. THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS MAY DIP INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE WHERE TEMPS DROP BELOW 37 DEGREES. AT
THIS TIME EXPECT THE FROST TO BE VERY PATCHY AND LIGHT...LIMITED TO
ROOFTOPS AND ON THE TOPS OF CARS.

EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT
AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. CURRENT CIRRUS
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...LEAVING
ONE TO WONDER IF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE TOO WET WITH THEIR RH DEPICTION
ALOFT LATER TONIGHT. THUS PLAN TO FORECAST TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN ANTICIPATION THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THIN AND
PATCHY. IF THE GFS/ECMWF END UP VERIFYING...THEN MIN TEMPS MAY BE 2-
4 DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST AND LIGHT PATCHY FROST WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST...COMMENCING AIR MASS
MODIFICATION. LOW LEVEL RETURN EXPECTED TO BE SWLY BY AFTERNOON WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS PROBABLE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
REBOUND ABOUT 10M FROM LEVELS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS
MAX TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. FACTORING IN ADDITIONAL
WARMING FROM THE LOW LEVEL SW FLOW SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NEAR 70 TO THE
LOWER 70S.

MONDAY NIGHT...L/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. UNDERGOES
AMPLIFICATION THANKS TO A S/W CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE TAILE ND OF THIS S/W WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
NIGHT...GENERATING AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE 8000-15000FT LAYER MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO
INITIATE SOME PRECIP BUT THE SUB CLOUD LAYER STILL QUITE DRY.
THUS...EXPECT NOTHING WORSE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF...AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES OUR REGION. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...

FOR TUE-WED: A MID LEVEL VORTEX IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER LK
ERIE AND PUSH SSE THROUGH WRN PA TUE... THEN DROP TO THE DC VICINITY
BY WED MORNING... AND WOBBLE NORTHWARD OVER THE MIDATLANTIC COAST
WED/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW SETS UP TUE OVER CENTRAL NC
WITH ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WHICH
PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUE EVENING... INTRODUCING COOLER
AIR AS A NOSE OF CANADIAN-SOURCE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NNW. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE MID CLOUDS TO START TUE AS THE 700 MB
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LUNCHTIME BUT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY LOWER BROKEN CLOUDS (ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE TOWERS) ACROSS THE NE AND EAST AS AN ELEVATED
MOIST LAYER AT 850-700 MB SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MOISTURE RETURN IN THE LOWER LEVELS... ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH THE DIGGING VORTEX ALOFT LOOK QUITE LOW. BUT
THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF DPVA AS STRONG VORTICITY LOBES
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW... WHICH MAY PARTIALLY COMPENSATE
FOR THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE. NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY
JUXTAPOSED WITH THE BEST DYNAMIC LIFT MAY STILL SEE A QUICK SPRINKLE
TUE EVENING/NIGHT... SO WILL LEAVE IN THE EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE NE. THE ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE WILL CAUSE THE
LOW TO SHIFT NE WED... AND WITH JUST WEAKER AND SHEARED VORTICITY
DIVING SE OVER CENTRAL NC AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN... WED SHOULD REMAIN DRY EVEN IN THE NE CWA... ALTHOUGH THIS
AREA SHOULD SEE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE WED. EXPECT WARM HIGHS TUE TO
REFLECT THE MILD THICKNESSES... 69-75. LOWS SHOULD SLIP BACK INTO
THE 40S AREAWIDE TUE NIGHT POST-FRONT... THEN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS OF 62-67 WED AS THICKNESSES DROP BACK INTO THE 1330S...
ROUGHLY 25 M BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WED NIGHT 40-45.

FOR THU-SUN: THE DRY PATTERN LOOKS VERY LIKELY TO PERSIST. THE
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOWS TO OUR NE SHIFT FURTHER NE AWAY FROM NC
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS A PORTION OF THE CANADIAN-SOURCE HIGH
BREAKS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY AND BUILDS GRADUALLY
TOWARD NC FROM THE WNW. LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT FROM THE
NW... AND THE DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ENSURE DECENT SUNSHINE AND
MIXING. EXPECT ANOTHER BELOW-NORMAL DAY THU... WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S... BUT THEN THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER WITH THEIR HANDLING OF A WEAK
BUT FULL-LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS THU. THE GFS
FOCUSES ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH... DRAWING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SOUTHEAST INTO THE VORTEX OFF NEW ENGLAND AND PROGRESSING THE
ENTIRE LOW/TROUGH OFF THE COAST BY SAT... FOLLOWED BY STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER TX AND THE GULF STATES SUNDAY. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND PLACES GREATER IMPORTANCE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE PLAINS TROUGH... RESULTING IN A CLOSED LOW OVER ERN TX FRI WHICH
THEN DROPS INTO THE NW GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL OF THIS RESULTS IN
TWO VERY DIFFERENT LONGWAVE PATTERNS OVER NOAM BY SUN... ALTHOUGH
FOR NC... BOTH RESULT IN A FLAT LIGHT NW OR WNW MID LEVEL FLOW WITH
NO MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT AND NO REAL CHANCE TO GET ANY DECENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE.
AS SUCH... WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY... WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING
BACK UP JUST ABOVE NORMAL. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD TONIGHT THEN DRIFT
EAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
EVENING BECOMING CALM... THEN INCREASING BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS (WITH WIND SPEEDS BY AFTERNOON
GENERALLY IN THE 7 TO 11 KT RANGE... WITH POSSIBLY A FEW WIND GUSTS
TO 15-17 KTS AT KGSO/KINT). HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

THRE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATING
AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL
CAUSE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS OVER CENTRAL NC TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE MVFR
CRITERIA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT GRADUALLY NEWD THU INTO
FRIDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/GIH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BSD/WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 191848
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT... AND
THEN PUSH EAST AND OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID WEEK... WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL NC
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM ALONG WITH
A LIGHT/CALM WIND REGIME WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE
40S AFTER SUNSET THEN GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND
40 OVERNIGHT. THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS MAY DIP INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE WHERE TEMPS DROP BELOW 37 DEGREES. AT
THIS TIME EXPECT THE FROST TO BE VERY PATCHY AND LIGHT...LIMITED TO
ROOFTOPS AND ON THE TOPS OF CARS.

EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT
AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. CURRENT CIRRUS
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...LEAVING
ONE TO WONDER IF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE TOO WET WITH THEIR RH DEPICTION
ALOFT LATER TONIGHT. THUS PLAN TO FORECAST TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN ANTICIPATION THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THIN AND
PATCHY. IF THE GFS/ECMWF END UP VERIFYING...THEN MIN TEMPS MAY BE 2-
4 DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST AND LIGHT PATCHY FROST WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST...COMMENCING AIR MASS
MODIFICATION. LOW LEVEL RETURN EXPECTED TO BE SWLY BY AFTERNOON WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS PROBABLE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
REBOUND ABOUT 10M FROM LEVELS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS
MAX TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. FACTORING IN ADDITIONAL
WARMING FROM THE LOW LEVEL SW FLOW SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NEAR 70 TO THE
LOWER 70S.

MONDAY NIGHT...L/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. UNDERGOES
AMPLIFICATION THANKS TO A S/W CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE TAILE ND OF THIS S/W WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
NIGHT...GENERATING AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE 8000-15000FT LAYER MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO
INITIATE SOME PRECIP BUT THE SUB CLOUD LAYER STILL QUITE DRY.
THUS...EXPECT NOTHING WORSE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF...AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES OUR REGION. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...

FOR TUE-WED: A MID LEVEL VORTEX IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER LK
ERIE AND PUSH SSE THROUGH WRN PA TUE... THEN DROP TO THE DC VICINITY
BY WED MORNING... AND WOBBLE NORTHWARD OVER THE MIDATLANTIC COAST
WED/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW SETS UP TUE OVER CENTRAL NC
WITH ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WHICH
PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUE EVENING... INTRODUCING COOLER
AIR AS A NOSE OF CANADIAN-SOURCE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NNW. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE MID CLOUDS TO START TUE AS THE 700 MB
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LUNCHTIME BUT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY LOWER BROKEN CLOUDS (ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE TOWERS) ACROSS THE NE AND EAST AS AN ELEVATED
MOIST LAYER AT 850-700 MB SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MOISTURE RETURN IN THE LOWER LEVELS... ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH THE DIGGING VORTEX ALOFT LOOK QUITE LOW. BUT
THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF DPVA AS STRONG VORTICITY LOBES
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW... WHICH MAY PARTIALLY COMPENSATE
FOR THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE. NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY
JUXTAPOSED WITH THE BEST DYNAMIC LIFT MAY STILL SEE A QUICK SPRINKLE
TUE EVENING/NIGHT... SO WILL LEAVE IN THE EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE NE. THE ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE WILL CAUSE THE
LOW TO SHIFT NE WED... AND WITH JUST WEAKER AND SHEARED VORTICITY
DIVING SE OVER CENTRAL NC AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN... WED SHOULD REMAIN DRY EVEN IN THE NE CWA... ALTHOUGH THIS
AREA SHOULD SEE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE WED. EXPECT WARM HIGHS TUE TO
REFLECT THE MILD THICKNESSES... 69-75. LOWS SHOULD SLIP BACK INTO
THE 40S AREAWIDE TUE NIGHT POST-FRONT... THEN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS OF 62-67 WED AS THICKNESSES DROP BACK INTO THE 1330S...
ROUGHLY 25 M BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WED NIGHT 40-45.

FOR THU-SUN: THE DRY PATTERN LOOKS VERY LIKELY TO PERSIST. THE
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOWS TO OUR NE SHIFT FURTHER NE AWAY FROM NC
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS A PORTION OF THE CANADIAN-SOURCE HIGH
BREAKS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY AND BUILDS GRADUALLY
TOWARD NC FROM THE WNW. LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT FROM THE
NW... AND THE DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ENSURE DECENT SUNSHINE AND
MIXING. EXPECT ANOTHER BELOW-NORMAL DAY THU... WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S... BUT THEN THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER WITH THEIR HANDLING OF A WEAK
BUT FULL-LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS THU. THE GFS
FOCUSES ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH... DRAWING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SOUTHEAST INTO THE VORTEX OFF NEW ENGLAND AND PROGRESSING THE
ENTIRE LOW/TROUGH OFF THE COAST BY SAT... FOLLOWED BY STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER TX AND THE GULF STATES SUNDAY. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND PLACES GREATER IMPORTANCE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE PLAINS TROUGH... RESULTING IN A CLOSED LOW OVER ERN TX FRI WHICH
THEN DROPS INTO THE NW GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL OF THIS RESULTS IN
TWO VERY DIFFERENT LONGWAVE PATTERNS OVER NOAM BY SUN... ALTHOUGH
FOR NC... BOTH RESULT IN A FLAT LIGHT NW OR WNW MID LEVEL FLOW WITH
NO MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT AND NO REAL CHANCE TO GET ANY DECENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE.
AS SUCH... WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY... WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING
BACK UP JUST ABOVE NORMAL. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM SUNDAY...

A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVERHEAD TONIGHT THEN DRIFT EAST ON MONDAY. RETURN SLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED CUMULUS...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

THRE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF S/W ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS
OVER CENTRAL NC TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CLOUD BASES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE MVFR CRITERIA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT
GRADUALLY NEWD THU INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO
OUR REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/GIH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 191848
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT... AND
THEN PUSH EAST AND OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID WEEK... WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL NC
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM ALONG WITH
A LIGHT/CALM WIND REGIME WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE
40S AFTER SUNSET THEN GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND
40 OVERNIGHT. THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS MAY DIP INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE WHERE TEMPS DROP BELOW 37 DEGREES. AT
THIS TIME EXPECT THE FROST TO BE VERY PATCHY AND LIGHT...LIMITED TO
ROOFTOPS AND ON THE TOPS OF CARS.

EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT
AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. CURRENT CIRRUS
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...LEAVING
ONE TO WONDER IF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE TOO WET WITH THEIR RH DEPICTION
ALOFT LATER TONIGHT. THUS PLAN TO FORECAST TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN ANTICIPATION THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THIN AND
PATCHY. IF THE GFS/ECMWF END UP VERIFYING...THEN MIN TEMPS MAY BE 2-
4 DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST AND LIGHT PATCHY FROST WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST...COMMENCING AIR MASS
MODIFICATION. LOW LEVEL RETURN EXPECTED TO BE SWLY BY AFTERNOON WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS PROBABLE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
REBOUND ABOUT 10M FROM LEVELS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS
MAX TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. FACTORING IN ADDITIONAL
WARMING FROM THE LOW LEVEL SW FLOW SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NEAR 70 TO THE
LOWER 70S.

MONDAY NIGHT...L/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. UNDERGOES
AMPLIFICATION THANKS TO A S/W CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE TAILE ND OF THIS S/W WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
NIGHT...GENERATING AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE 8000-15000FT LAYER MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO
INITIATE SOME PRECIP BUT THE SUB CLOUD LAYER STILL QUITE DRY.
THUS...EXPECT NOTHING WORSE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF...AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES OUR REGION. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...

FOR TUE-WED: A MID LEVEL VORTEX IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER LK
ERIE AND PUSH SSE THROUGH WRN PA TUE... THEN DROP TO THE DC VICINITY
BY WED MORNING... AND WOBBLE NORTHWARD OVER THE MIDATLANTIC COAST
WED/WED NIGHT. CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW SETS UP TUE OVER CENTRAL NC
WITH ABOVE NORMAL THICKNESSES AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT WHICH
PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUE EVENING... INTRODUCING COOLER
AIR AS A NOSE OF CANADIAN-SOURCE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NNW. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE MID CLOUDS TO START TUE AS THE 700 MB
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THESE SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY LUNCHTIME BUT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY LOWER BROKEN CLOUDS (ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE TOWERS) ACROSS THE NE AND EAST AS AN ELEVATED
MOIST LAYER AT 850-700 MB SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MOISTURE RETURN IN THE LOWER LEVELS... ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH THE DIGGING VORTEX ALOFT LOOK QUITE LOW. BUT
THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF DPVA AS STRONG VORTICITY LOBES
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW... WHICH MAY PARTIALLY COMPENSATE
FOR THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE. NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE TEMPORALLY AND SPATIALLY
JUXTAPOSED WITH THE BEST DYNAMIC LIFT MAY STILL SEE A QUICK SPRINKLE
TUE EVENING/NIGHT... SO WILL LEAVE IN THE EXISTING SLIGHT CHANCE IN
THE NE. THE ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE WILL CAUSE THE
LOW TO SHIFT NE WED... AND WITH JUST WEAKER AND SHEARED VORTICITY
DIVING SE OVER CENTRAL NC AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN... WED SHOULD REMAIN DRY EVEN IN THE NE CWA... ALTHOUGH THIS
AREA SHOULD SEE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE WED. EXPECT WARM HIGHS TUE TO
REFLECT THE MILD THICKNESSES... 69-75. LOWS SHOULD SLIP BACK INTO
THE 40S AREAWIDE TUE NIGHT POST-FRONT... THEN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS OF 62-67 WED AS THICKNESSES DROP BACK INTO THE 1330S...
ROUGHLY 25 M BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WED NIGHT 40-45.

FOR THU-SUN: THE DRY PATTERN LOOKS VERY LIKELY TO PERSIST. THE
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOWS TO OUR NE SHIFT FURTHER NE AWAY FROM NC
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS A PORTION OF THE CANADIAN-SOURCE HIGH
BREAKS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY AND BUILDS GRADUALLY
TOWARD NC FROM THE WNW. LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT FROM THE
NW... AND THE DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ENSURE DECENT SUNSHINE AND
MIXING. EXPECT ANOTHER BELOW-NORMAL DAY THU... WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S... BUT THEN THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER WITH THEIR HANDLING OF A WEAK
BUT FULL-LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS THU. THE GFS
FOCUSES ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH... DRAWING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SOUTHEAST INTO THE VORTEX OFF NEW ENGLAND AND PROGRESSING THE
ENTIRE LOW/TROUGH OFF THE COAST BY SAT... FOLLOWED BY STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER TX AND THE GULF STATES SUNDAY. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND PLACES GREATER IMPORTANCE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE PLAINS TROUGH... RESULTING IN A CLOSED LOW OVER ERN TX FRI WHICH
THEN DROPS INTO THE NW GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL OF THIS RESULTS IN
TWO VERY DIFFERENT LONGWAVE PATTERNS OVER NOAM BY SUN... ALTHOUGH
FOR NC... BOTH RESULT IN A FLAT LIGHT NW OR WNW MID LEVEL FLOW WITH
NO MECHANISMS TO FORCE ASCENT AND NO REAL CHANCE TO GET ANY DECENT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE.
AS SUCH... WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY... WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING
BACK UP JUST ABOVE NORMAL. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM SUNDAY...

A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVERHEAD TONIGHT THEN DRIFT EAST ON MONDAY. RETURN SLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED CUMULUS...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

THRE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF S/W ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS
OVER CENTRAL NC TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CLOUD BASES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE MVFR CRITERIA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT
GRADUALLY NEWD THU INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO
OUR REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/GIH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 191835
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER NC AND VA TONIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE MON...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION MON NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL NC
TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM ALONG WITH
A LIGHT/CALM WIND REGIME WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE
40S AFTER SUNSET THEN GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND
40 OVERNIGHT. THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS MAY DIP INTO THE MID
30S. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE WHERE TEMPS DROP BELOW 37 DEGREES. AT
THIS TIME EXPECT THE FROST TO BE VERY PATCHY AND LIGHT...LIMITED TO
ROOFTOPS AND ON THE TOPS OF CARS.

EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST BY MIDNIGHT
AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. CURRENT CIRRUS
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...LEAVING
ONE TO WONDER IF THE GFS/ECMWF ARE TOO WET WITH THEIR RH DEPICTION
ALOFT LATER TONIGHT. THUS PLAN TO FORECAST TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN ANTICIPATION THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THIN AND
PATCHY. IF THE GFS/ECMWF END UP VERIFYING...THEN MIN TEMPS MAY BE 2-
4 DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST AND LIGHT PATCHY FROST WILL BE OF
LITTLE CONCERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM SUNDAY...

MONDAY...SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST...COMMENCING AIR MASS
MODIFICATION. LOW LEVEL RETURN EXPECTED TO BE SWLY BY AFTERNOON WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS PROBABLE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
REBOUND ABOUT 10M FROM LEVELS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS
MAX TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. FACTORING IN ADDITIONAL
WARMING FROM THE LOW LEVEL SW FLOW SUPPORT MAX TEMPS NEAR 70 TO THE
LOWER 70S.


MONDAY NIGHT...L/W TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. UNDERGOES
AMPLIFICATION THANKS TO A S/W CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE TAILE ND OF THIS S/W WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC MONDAY
NIGHT...GENERATING AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE 8000-15000FT LAYER MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO
INITIATE SOME PRECIP BUT THE SUB CLOUD LAYER STILL QUITE DRY.
THUS...EXPECT NOTHING WORSE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF...AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES OUR REGION. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND A MODIFYING AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL DIVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY...IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...DIGGING
THROUGH THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.  DURING THE
DAY...A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...A SHOT
OF STRONG DCVA WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME LIMITED MOISTURE...PW BELOW
0.75"...IN ORDER TO TO SQUEAK OUT A FEW ISOLATED...LIGHT
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE SLIGHTLY MORE CONDUCIVE FOR PRECIP.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE ONLY GENERATING A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF QPF IN
SPOTS...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO BE THE BEST BET.

BEHIND THE FRONT...A NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.  MODELS HAVE HINTED AT A FEW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME VERY
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL STILL EB
SEVERELY LACKING AND JUST ENHANCE CLOUD COVER SEEMS MORE LIKELY.
THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY TOUCH 1340M ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN CLIMB BACK TOWARD NORMAL VALUES AROUND 1360M BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION.  THUS...HIGHS WILL BE COOLEST WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S AND TREND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES BY NEXT WEEKEND AS ENERGY
CROSSING THE CENTRAL US IS FORCED INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN
EITHER MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US (GFS SOLUTION) OR CUTS OFF
OVER THE GULF COAST (ECMWF SOLUTION).  WPC HAS A STRONG PREFERENCE
FOR THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN.  EITHER WAY THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY AND NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM SUNDAY...

A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVERHEAD TONIGHT THEN DRIFT EAST ON MONDAY. RETURN SLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED CUMULUS...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

THRE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF S/W ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS
OVER CENTRAL NC TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CLOUD BASES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE MVFR CRITERIA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT
GRADUALLY NEWD THU INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO
OUR REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 191735
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
135 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER NC AND VA TONIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE MON...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION MON NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM SUNDAY...

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING S/W WILL MAINTAIN SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NC. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS
850MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION THOUGH MODEL TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS AT GSO TOO COOL BY 3-4 DEGREES C. THERMAL TROUGH WILL
DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO USUALLY
SUPPORTS COOLER MAX TEMPS IN THE NE AND WARMER TEMPS IN THE SW.
THICKNESSES THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM THE 1340S NE TO 1355-1360
SW...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THEN SETTLES OVER OUR REGION TONIGHT...EXPECT BREEZY NLY
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. -WSS


TONIGHT: THE APPROACH OF A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED
OVER WESTERN OK THIS MORNING...AND A COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE CENTER
OF THE SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...CALM AND
INITIALLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT QUICKLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET...WITH A SLOWER FALL OR NEUTRAL
TENDENCY AS THE CIRRUS SPREAD EAST LATE. PROJECTED 12Z MON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES BETWEEN 1345-1350 METERS SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S...TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN URBAN
AREAS...SUPPORTIVE OF PATCHY FROST IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER AREAS.
-MWS

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM SUNDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE...AS THE HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT
ATTENDING THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL PROMOTE BOTH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS...THE LATTER
MOST NOTABLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED...AS THE UPPER JET AXIS ACCOMPANYING THE AMPLIFYING
TROUGH SETTLE OVERHEAD. HIGHS ABOUT 3 DEGREES ABOVE THOSE OF SUNDAY -
IN THE UPPER 60S...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE
OVERNIGHT PASSAGE OF A LEAD MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL MOIST AXIS MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF MID CLOUDS AND
VIRGA...BUT A STILL VERY DRY AIRMASS BELOW 10 THOUSAND FT SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. NOT AS
COOL...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL DIVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY...IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...DIGGING
THROUGH THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.  DURING THE
DAY...A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...A SHOT
OF STRONG DCVA WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME LIMITED MOISTURE...PW BELOW
0.75"...IN ORDER TO TO SQUEAK OUT A FEW ISOLATED...LIGHT
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE SLIGHTLY MORE CONDUCIVE FOR PRECIP.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE ONLY GENERATING A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF QPF IN
SPOTS...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO BE THE BEST BET.

BEHIND THE FRONT...A NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.  MODELS HAVE HINTED AT A FEW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME VERY
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL STILL EB
SEVERELY LACKING AND JUST ENHANCE CLOUD COVER SEEMS MORE LIKELY.
THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY TOUCH 1340M ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN CLIMB BACK TOWARD NORMAL VALUES AROUND 1360M BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION.  THUS...HIGHS WILL BE COOLEST WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S AND TREND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES BY NEXT WEEKEND AS ENERGY
CROSSING THE CENTRAL US IS FORCED INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN
EITHER MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US (GFS SOLUTION) OR CUTS OFF
OVER THE GULF COAST (ECMWF SOLUTION).  WPC HAS A STRONG PREFERENCE
FOR THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN.  EITHER WAY THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY AND NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM SUNDAY...

A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVERHEAD TONIGHT THEN DRIFT EAST ON MONDAY. RETURN SLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED CUMULUS...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

THRE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF S/W ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS
OVER CENTRAL NC TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CLOUD BASES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE MVFR CRITERIA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT
GRADUALLY NEWD THU INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO
OUR REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...WSS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 191735
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
135 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER NC AND VA TONIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE MON...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION MON NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM SUNDAY...

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING S/W WILL MAINTAIN SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NC. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS
850MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION THOUGH MODEL TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS AT GSO TOO COOL BY 3-4 DEGREES C. THERMAL TROUGH WILL
DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO USUALLY
SUPPORTS COOLER MAX TEMPS IN THE NE AND WARMER TEMPS IN THE SW.
THICKNESSES THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM THE 1340S NE TO 1355-1360
SW...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THEN SETTLES OVER OUR REGION TONIGHT...EXPECT BREEZY NLY
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. -WSS


TONIGHT: THE APPROACH OF A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED
OVER WESTERN OK THIS MORNING...AND A COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE CENTER
OF THE SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...CALM AND
INITIALLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT QUICKLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET...WITH A SLOWER FALL OR NEUTRAL
TENDENCY AS THE CIRRUS SPREAD EAST LATE. PROJECTED 12Z MON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES BETWEEN 1345-1350 METERS SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S...TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN URBAN
AREAS...SUPPORTIVE OF PATCHY FROST IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER AREAS.
-MWS

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM SUNDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE...AS THE HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT
ATTENDING THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL PROMOTE BOTH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS...THE LATTER
MOST NOTABLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED...AS THE UPPER JET AXIS ACCOMPANYING THE AMPLIFYING
TROUGH SETTLE OVERHEAD. HIGHS ABOUT 3 DEGREES ABOVE THOSE OF SUNDAY -
IN THE UPPER 60S...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE
OVERNIGHT PASSAGE OF A LEAD MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL MOIST AXIS MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF MID CLOUDS AND
VIRGA...BUT A STILL VERY DRY AIRMASS BELOW 10 THOUSAND FT SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. NOT AS
COOL...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL DIVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY...IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...DIGGING
THROUGH THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.  DURING THE
DAY...A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...A SHOT
OF STRONG DCVA WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME LIMITED MOISTURE...PW BELOW
0.75"...IN ORDER TO TO SQUEAK OUT A FEW ISOLATED...LIGHT
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE SLIGHTLY MORE CONDUCIVE FOR PRECIP.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE ONLY GENERATING A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF QPF IN
SPOTS...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO BE THE BEST BET.

BEHIND THE FRONT...A NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.  MODELS HAVE HINTED AT A FEW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME VERY
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL STILL EB
SEVERELY LACKING AND JUST ENHANCE CLOUD COVER SEEMS MORE LIKELY.
THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY TOUCH 1340M ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN CLIMB BACK TOWARD NORMAL VALUES AROUND 1360M BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION.  THUS...HIGHS WILL BE COOLEST WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S AND TREND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES BY NEXT WEEKEND AS ENERGY
CROSSING THE CENTRAL US IS FORCED INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN
EITHER MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US (GFS SOLUTION) OR CUTS OFF
OVER THE GULF COAST (ECMWF SOLUTION).  WPC HAS A STRONG PREFERENCE
FOR THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN.  EITHER WAY THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY AND NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM SUNDAY...

A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVERHEAD TONIGHT THEN DRIFT EAST ON MONDAY. RETURN SLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED CUMULUS...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF KFAY.

THRE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF S/W ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS
OVER CENTRAL NC TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER CLOUD BASES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE MVFR CRITERIA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT
GRADUALLY NEWD THU INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO
OUR REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS/MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...WSS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 191443
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1045 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TODAY AND
SETTLE DIRECTLY OVER NC AND VA TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE
MON...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION
MON NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM SUNDAY...

SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING S/W WILL MAINTAIN SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NC. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS
850MB THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION THOUGH MODEL TEMPERATURE
PROJECTIONS AT GSO TOO COOL BY 3-4 DEGREES C. THERMAL TROUGH WILL
DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO USUALLY
SUPPORTS COOLER MAX TEMPS IN THE NE AND WARMER TEMPS IN THE SW.
THICKNESSES THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM THE 1340S NE TO 1355-1360
SW...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THEN SETTLES OVER OUR REGION TONIGHT...EXPECT BREEZY NLY
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. -WSS


TONIGHT: THE APPROACH OF A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED
OVER WESTERN OK THIS MORNING...AND A COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE CENTER
OF THE SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...CALM AND
INITIALLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT QUICKLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET...WITH A SLOWER FALL OR NEUTRAL
TENDENCY AS THE CIRRUS SPREAD EAST LATE. PROJECTED 12Z MON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES BETWEEN 1345-1350 METERS SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S...TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN URBAN
AREAS...SUPPORTIVE OF PATCHY FROST IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER AREAS.
-MWS

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM SUNDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE...AS THE HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT
ATTENDING THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL PROMOTE BOTH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS...THE LATTER
MOST NOTABLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED...AS THE UPPER JET AXIS ACCOMPANYING THE AMPLIFYING
TROUGH SETTLE OVERHEAD. HIGHS ABOUT 3 DEGREES ABOVE THOSE OF SUNDAY -
IN THE UPPER 60S...TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE
OVERNIGHT PASSAGE OF A LEAD MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL MOIST AXIS MON NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A BAND OF MID CLOUDS AND
VIRGA...BUT A STILL VERY DRY AIRMASS BELOW 10 THOUSAND FT SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND. NOT AS
COOL...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL DIVE
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY...IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...DIGGING
THROUGH THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.  DURING THE
DAY...A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...A SHOT
OF STRONG DCVA WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME LIMITED MOISTURE...PW BELOW
0.75"...IN ORDER TO TO SQUEAK OUT A FEW ISOLATED...LIGHT
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WHERE
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE SLIGHTLY MORE CONDUCIVE FOR PRECIP.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE ONLY GENERATING A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF QPF IN
SPOTS...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TO BE THE BEST BET.

BEHIND THE FRONT...A NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.  MODELS HAVE HINTED AT A FEW SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME VERY
WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL STILL EB
SEVERELY LACKING AND JUST ENHANCE CLOUD COVER SEEMS MORE LIKELY.
THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY TOUCH 1340M ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN CLIMB BACK TOWARD NORMAL VALUES AROUND 1360M BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION.  THUS...HIGHS WILL BE COOLEST WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S AND TREND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES BY NEXT WEEKEND AS ENERGY
CROSSING THE CENTRAL US IS FORCED INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN
EITHER MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US (GFS SOLUTION) OR CUTS OFF
OVER THE GULF COAST (ECMWF SOLUTION).  WPC HAS A STRONG PREFERENCE
FOR THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN.  EITHER WAY THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY AND NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM SUNDAY...

STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH (DISTURBANCE)
ALOFT EXITING THE NC COAST THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES
TODAY. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME BRIEFLY GUSTY INTO
THE 15-20 KT RANGE BETWEEN 13-17Z...STRONGEST AND MOST FREQUENT AT
EASTERN TERMINALS...BEFORE LESSENING THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING
CALM AT SUNSET...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO...AND SETTLES OVER...
NC.

OUTLOOK: MOISTURE IN SSE RETURN FLOW WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS BASED AROUND 3000 FT - MAINLY
ALONG COASTAL AREAS - THOUGH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUDINESS
COULD BRUSH KFAY AND KRWI MON AFTERNOON. THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...AND ASSOCIATED PASSAGE OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT...WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...MWS





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