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000
FXUS62 KRAH 230828
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING...THEN SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID-
ATLANTIC LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

TODAY AND TONIGHT: A POTENT S/W TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
TX THIS MORNING AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT DEPOSITED DRY/COLD AIR
ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE TODAY.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT S/W AND
ADDITIONAL WEAKER EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP SUPPORT AND AREA RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING/MAINLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THANKS TO THE DRY MID LEVEL AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE RETURNS ON RADAR WILL LIKELY JUST HELP TO MOISTEN THE COLUM.
HOWEVER... RAIN SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY MID
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NC... FIRST ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA THEN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP TO CREATE AN INITIAL IN-SITU COLD
AIR DAMMING AIRMASS. DAYTIME/EARLY EVENING HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 50 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST... WHERE A RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
SURGE INTO THE AREA LATE INTO THE DAY/EVENING (WITH CALENDAR DAY
HIGHS LIKELY AT MIDNIGHT)

THE 850 MB FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING... WITH 850 MB SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 50 TO 70 KTS. AS
THE SFC-850 MB WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT WE COULD SEE
A FEW ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS... WITH EVEN THE THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST (SAMPSON/WAYNE... MAYBE
CUMBERLAND AND WILSON AND EDGECOMBE) AS LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE STRONG... WITH LARGE CYCLONIC LOOPING HODOGRAPHS...
BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL TO NIL (BEST CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FAR SE/E). SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK CLIPS OUR FAR
EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE MARGINAL AREA... AND ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN
SAMPSON WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE SMALL WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM ACROSS OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST WOULD BE FROM AROUND 00Z
TO 04/05Z... WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR
DAMAGING WIND GUST. MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO SURGE INTO
OUR AREA... AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA.
THUS... EXPECT TEMPS WILL RISE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS... THEN BECOMING STEADY. THUS... LOW TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WILL ACROSS AT THE START OF THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE ACROSS THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE EARLY MORNING MID/UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE TO THE NORTH WILL HELP TO
MIX OUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MONDAY MORNING. AS SFC TEMPS
WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE RE-
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN-EASTERN PIEDMONT MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN AN AXIS OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE...THE
HEADLINES MONDAY WILL BE THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAVE STEADILY TRENDED TOWARDS A DEEPER MIXED LAYER...TAPPING
INTO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATING 35-
40KTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK AND 45 TO 50KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER. A WIND ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER
FORECASTS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
35 AND 45 MPH. ADDITIONALLY...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THESE
STRONG WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTERNOON
COULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NW
TO MID/UPPER 70S SE. COLD AND DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S NW
TO LOWER 50S EAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
EMBEDDED AT THE BASE OF THE POSITIVELY LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. APPROACH OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SPAWN SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TUESDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE NC COAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND UP THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DURING THE MEANTIME...A TRANSITORY 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TUE
NIGHT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING OWING TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT
JETSTREAK. THE CANADIAN HAS STARTED TO CONVERGE TOWARDS THE WETTER
GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS..WHILE THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER...KEEPING IT DRY
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND LOW PRESSURE WAVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. IT
LOOKS TO BE A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE WET SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
NW PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OWING
TO THE TRANSITORY AND WEAK PARENT HIGH AND AND FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS. A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND POSSIBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD KEEP
CENTRAL NC ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT
JUST HOW FAR BELOW NORMAL WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFFSHORE AND EXTENDING BACK INTO CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC) MAY BRING SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE IS STILL LOW. IN
ADDITION... SOME LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SPRINKLES MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA
WITH A LEADING BAND OF PRECIP MORNING NORTHWARD OUT OF GA/SC EARLY
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMO EXPECT ONLY LIGHT RAIN AT BEST (VFR
CONDITIONS).

ANY SUB VFR CONDITIONS THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL IMPROVE BY
MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THESE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
AVIATION CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM THE SOUTH/WEST TO NORTH/EAST AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS
PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH... WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING... WITH POSSIBLE LLWS
(ESPECIALLY AT KGSO/KINT) AS LOW LEVEL FLOW ATOP AN INITIAL COOL
STABLE AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE INCREASINGS TO AROUND 50 KTS AT AROUND
2 KFT OUT OF THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IMPACTS THE AREA. A STRONG 50-60KT LOW LEVEL
JET MAY CAUSE SOME CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME
ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW
CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH) MONDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BSD/KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 230828
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING...THEN SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID-
ATLANTIC LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

TODAY AND TONIGHT: A POTENT S/W TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
TX THIS MORNING AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT DEPOSITED DRY/COLD AIR
ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE TODAY.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT S/W AND
ADDITIONAL WEAKER EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP SUPPORT AND AREA RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING/MAINLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THANKS TO THE DRY MID LEVEL AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE RETURNS ON RADAR WILL LIKELY JUST HELP TO MOISTEN THE COLUM.
HOWEVER... RAIN SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY MID
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NC... FIRST ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA THEN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP TO CREATE AN INITIAL IN-SITU COLD
AIR DAMMING AIRMASS. DAYTIME/EARLY EVENING HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 50 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST... WHERE A RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
SURGE INTO THE AREA LATE INTO THE DAY/EVENING (WITH CALENDAR DAY
HIGHS LIKELY AT MIDNIGHT)

THE 850 MB FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING... WITH 850 MB SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 50 TO 70 KTS. AS
THE SFC-850 MB WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT WE COULD SEE
A FEW ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS... WITH EVEN THE THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST (SAMPSON/WAYNE... MAYBE
CUMBERLAND AND WILSON AND EDGECOMBE) AS LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE STRONG... WITH LARGE CYCLONIC LOOPING HODOGRAPHS...
BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL TO NIL (BEST CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FAR SE/E). SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK CLIPS OUR FAR
EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE MARGINAL AREA... AND ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN
SAMPSON WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE SMALL WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM ACROSS OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST WOULD BE FROM AROUND 00Z
TO 04/05Z... WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR
DAMAGING WIND GUST. MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO SURGE INTO
OUR AREA... AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA.
THUS... EXPECT TEMPS WILL RISE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS... THEN BECOMING STEADY. THUS... LOW TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WILL ACROSS AT THE START OF THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE ACROSS THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THE EARLY MORNING MID/UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE TO THE NORTH WILL HELP TO
MIX OUT LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MONDAY MORNING. AS SFC TEMPS
WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE RE-
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN-EASTERN PIEDMONT MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN AN AXIS OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE...THE
HEADLINES MONDAY WILL BE THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAVE STEADILY TRENDED TOWARDS A DEEPER MIXED LAYER...TAPPING
INTO THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...WITH LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATING 35-
40KTS RIGHT OFF THE DECK AND 45 TO 50KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER. A WIND ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER
FORECASTS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
35 AND 45 MPH. ADDITIONALLY...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THESE
STRONG WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTERNOON
COULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NW
TO MID/UPPER 70S SE. COLD AND DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S NW
TO LOWER 50S EAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
EMBEDDED AT THE BASE OF THE POSITIVELY LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. APPROACH OF
THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SPAWN SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TUESDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE NC COAST ON WEDNESDAY
AND UP THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DURING THE MEANTIME...A TRANSITORY 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TUE
NIGHT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND WITH DEEP LAYER FORCING OWING TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT
JETSTREAK. THE CANADIAN HAS STARTED TO CONVERGE TOWARDS THE WETTER
GFS AND EC SOLUTIONS..WHILE THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER...KEEPING IT DRY
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND LOW PRESSURE WAVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. IT
LOOKS TO BE A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NC WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE WET SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
NW PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OWING
TO THE TRANSITORY AND WEAK PARENT HIGH AND AND FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT...NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT ALL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS. A MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND POSSIBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COULD KEEP
CENTRAL NC ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT
JUST HOW FAR BELOW NORMAL WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFFSHORE AND EXTENDING BACK INTO CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC) MAY BRING SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE IS STILL LOW. IN
ADDITION... SOME LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SPRINKLES MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA
WITH A LEADING BAND OF PRECIP MORNING NORTHWARD OUT OF GA/SC EARLY
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMO EXPECT ONLY LIGHT RAIN AT BEST (VFR
CONDITIONS).

ANY SUB VFR CONDITIONS THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL IMPROVE BY
MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THESE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
AVIATION CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM THE SOUTH/WEST TO NORTH/EAST AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS
PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH... WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING... WITH POSSIBLE LLWS
(ESPECIALLY AT KGSO/KINT) AS LOW LEVEL FLOW ATOP AN INITIAL COOL
STABLE AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE INCREASINGS TO AROUND 50 KTS AT AROUND
2 KFT OUT OF THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IMPACTS THE AREA. A STRONG 50-60KT LOW LEVEL
JET MAY CAUSE SOME CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME
ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW
CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH) MONDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BSD/KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 230821
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING...THEN SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID-
ATLANTIC LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

TODAY AND TONIGHT: A POTENT S/W TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
TX THIS MORNING AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT DEPOSITED DRY/COLD AIR
ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE TODAY.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT S/W AND
ADDITIONAL WEAKER EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP SUPPORT AND AREA RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING/MAINLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THANKS TO THE DRY MID LEVEL AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE RETURNS ON RADAR WILL LIKELY JUST HELP TO MOISTEN THE COLUM.
HOWEVER... RAIN SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY MID
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NC... FIRST ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA THEN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP TO CREATE AN INITIAL IN-SITU COLD
AIR DAMMING AIRMASS. DAYTIME/EARLY EVENING HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 50 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST... WHERE A RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
SURGE INTO THE AREA LATE INTO THE DAY/EVENING (WITH CALENDAR DAY
HIGHS LIKELY AT MIDNIGHT)

THE 850 MB FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING... WITH 850 MB SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 50 TO 70 KTS. AS
THE SFC-850 MB WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT WE COULD SEE
A FEW ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS... WITH EVEN THE THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST (SAMPSON/WAYNE... MAYBE
CUMBERLAND AND WILSON AND EDGECOMBE) AS LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE STRONG... WITH LARGE CYCLONIC LOOPING HODOGRAPHS...
BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL TO NIL (BEST CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FAR SE/E). SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK CLIPS OUR FAR
EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE MARGINAL AREA... AND ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN
SAMPSON WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE SMALL WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM ACROSS OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST WOULD BE FROM AROUND 00Z
TO 04/05Z... WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR
DAMAGING WIND GUST. MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO SURGE INTO
OUR AREA... AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA.
THUS... EXPECT TEMPS WILL RISE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS... THEN BECOMING STEADY. THUS... LOW TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WILL ACROSS AT THE START OF THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE ACROSS THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 PM SATURDAY...

MON AND MON NIGHT: THE AXIS OF A 50 KT LLJ...IN DEEP SW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAY MONDAY...IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MON
AND MON EVENING - A SOLUTION BEST REPRESENTED BY THE SLOWER 12Z
ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE. THE PASSAGE OF THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...THEN LATER FRONTAL FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS - AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN AN AXIS OF LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN - ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONG AND
INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW...AFTER THE EARLY
MORNING WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...MIXING OF THE
STRONG LLJ WILL RESULT IN A VERY BREEZY SW WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND
20 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH PROBABLE PER ~35 KT MIXED
LAYER WIND FORECASTS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

AFTER PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EVENING...COLD AND DRY ADVECTION...AND CLEARING...WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD AND RESULT IN LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.  -MWS

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM SATURDAY...

TUE-WED: 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS TUE...THEN EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TUE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
ALOFT FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL INDUCE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS...ALONG AN
OLD FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTH EAST...REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW AS IT LIFTS UP THE
SOUTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH MID WEEK...RANGING FROM
THE WELL OFFSHORE AND TOTALLY DRY-FOR-CENTRAL-NC CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
OF RECENT DAYS...TO THE CLOUDY AND WET SOLUTIONS DEPICTED BY THE
PAST FEW ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT AND ONLY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH ALOFT...THE MORE WESTWARD (AND
WET) SOLUTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE FRONT AND INCIPIENT COASTAL LOW ARE
FAVORED...WITH A LOW TRACK MOST PROBABLE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF
THE GULF STREAM.

THE RESULT WOULD BE RAIN DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND
ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A COLD RAIN LIKELY AND  TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S...ON WED. THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARENT POLAR HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK (AROUND 1025 MB)
AND POSITIONED FARTHER SOUTH (OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES) THAN
IS TYPICAL FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL NC...THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND
RESULTANT PARTIAL THICKNESSES ON THE WEST/NW SIDE SUGGEST AT LEAST A
THREAT OF A LITTLE WEST SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY
PRECIPITATION RATES...AND THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WED NIGHT-SAT: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT (THAN RECENT DAYS) REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD
TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SUCH A PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF NC)...AND
MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
PATTERN OF NW TO WNW FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFFSHORE AND EXTENDING BACK INTO CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC) MAY BRING SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE IS STILL LOW. IN
ADDITION... SOME LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SPRINKLES MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA
WITH A LEADING BAND OF PRECIP MORNING NORTHWARD OUT OF GA/SC EARLY
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMO EXPECT ONLY LIGHT RAIN AT BEST (VFR
CONDITIONS).

ANY SUB VFR CONDITIONS THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL IMPROVE BY
MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THESE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
AVIATION CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM THE SOUTH/WEST TO NORTH/EAST AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS
PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH... WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING... WITH POSSIBLE LLWS
(ESPECIALLY AT KGSO/KINT) AS LOW LEVEL FLOW ATOP AN INITIAL COOL
STABLE AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE INCREASINGS TO AROUND 50 KTS AT AROUND
2 KFT OUT OF THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IMPACTS THE AREA. A STRONG 50-60KT LOW LEVEL
JET MAY CAUSE SOME CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME
ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW
CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH) MONDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BSD/KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 230821
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING...THEN SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID-
ATLANTIC LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...

TODAY AND TONIGHT: A POTENT S/W TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM
TX THIS MORNING AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT DEPOSITED DRY/COLD AIR
ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE TODAY.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE POTENT S/W AND
ADDITIONAL WEAKER EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP SUPPORT AND AREA RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING/MAINLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THANKS TO THE DRY MID LEVEL AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE RETURNS ON RADAR WILL LIKELY JUST HELP TO MOISTEN THE COLUM.
HOWEVER... RAIN SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY MID
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NC... FIRST ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA THEN SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP TO CREATE AN INITIAL IN-SITU COLD
AIR DAMMING AIRMASS. DAYTIME/EARLY EVENING HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 50 IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST... WHERE A RETREATING WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
SURGE INTO THE AREA LATE INTO THE DAY/EVENING (WITH CALENDAR DAY
HIGHS LIKELY AT MIDNIGHT)

THE 850 MB FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING... WITH 850 MB SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 50 TO 70 KTS. AS
THE SFC-850 MB WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT WE COULD SEE
A FEW ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS... WITH EVEN THE THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST (SAMPSON/WAYNE... MAYBE
CUMBERLAND AND WILSON AND EDGECOMBE) AS LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE STRONG... WITH LARGE CYCLONIC LOOPING HODOGRAPHS...
BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL TO NIL (BEST CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR FAR SE/E). SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK CLIPS OUR FAR
EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE MARGINAL AREA... AND ONLY EXTREME SOUTHERN
SAMPSON WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE SMALL WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM ACROSS OUR FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST WOULD BE FROM AROUND 00Z
TO 04/05Z... WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR
DAMAGING WIND GUST. MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO SURGE INTO
OUR AREA... AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA.
THUS... EXPECT TEMPS WILL RISE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS... THEN BECOMING STEADY. THUS... LOW TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WILL ACROSS AT THE START OF THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO
WARM INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE ACROSS THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 PM SATURDAY...

MON AND MON NIGHT: THE AXIS OF A 50 KT LLJ...IN DEEP SW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAY MONDAY...IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MON
AND MON EVENING - A SOLUTION BEST REPRESENTED BY THE SLOWER 12Z
ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE. THE PASSAGE OF THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...THEN LATER FRONTAL FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS - AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN AN AXIS OF LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN - ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONG AND
INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW...AFTER THE EARLY
MORNING WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...MIXING OF THE
STRONG LLJ WILL RESULT IN A VERY BREEZY SW WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND
20 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH PROBABLE PER ~35 KT MIXED
LAYER WIND FORECASTS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

AFTER PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EVENING...COLD AND DRY ADVECTION...AND CLEARING...WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD AND RESULT IN LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.  -MWS

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM SATURDAY...

TUE-WED: 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS TUE...THEN EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TUE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
ALOFT FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL INDUCE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS...ALONG AN
OLD FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTH EAST...REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW AS IT LIFTS UP THE
SOUTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH MID WEEK...RANGING FROM
THE WELL OFFSHORE AND TOTALLY DRY-FOR-CENTRAL-NC CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
OF RECENT DAYS...TO THE CLOUDY AND WET SOLUTIONS DEPICTED BY THE
PAST FEW ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT AND ONLY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH ALOFT...THE MORE WESTWARD (AND
WET) SOLUTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE FRONT AND INCIPIENT COASTAL LOW ARE
FAVORED...WITH A LOW TRACK MOST PROBABLE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF
THE GULF STREAM.

THE RESULT WOULD BE RAIN DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND
ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A COLD RAIN LIKELY AND  TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S...ON WED. THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARENT POLAR HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK (AROUND 1025 MB)
AND POSITIONED FARTHER SOUTH (OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES) THAN
IS TYPICAL FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL NC...THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND
RESULTANT PARTIAL THICKNESSES ON THE WEST/NW SIDE SUGGEST AT LEAST A
THREAT OF A LITTLE WEST SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY
PRECIPITATION RATES...AND THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WED NIGHT-SAT: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT (THAN RECENT DAYS) REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD
TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SUCH A PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF NC)...AND
MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
PATTERN OF NW TO WNW FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFFSHORE AND EXTENDING BACK INTO CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC) MAY BRING SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE IS STILL LOW. IN
ADDITION... SOME LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SPRINKLES MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA
WITH A LEADING BAND OF PRECIP MORNING NORTHWARD OUT OF GA/SC EARLY
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMO EXPECT ONLY LIGHT RAIN AT BEST (VFR
CONDITIONS).

ANY SUB VFR CONDITIONS THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL IMPROVE BY
MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THESE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
AVIATION CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM THE SOUTH/WEST TO NORTH/EAST AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS
PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH... WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING... WITH POSSIBLE LLWS
(ESPECIALLY AT KGSO/KINT) AS LOW LEVEL FLOW ATOP AN INITIAL COOL
STABLE AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE INCREASINGS TO AROUND 50 KTS AT AROUND
2 KFT OUT OF THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IMPACTS THE AREA. A STRONG 50-60KT LOW LEVEL
JET MAY CAUSE SOME CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME
ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW
CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH) MONDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BSD/KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 230613
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
113 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING...THEN SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID-
ATLANTIC LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

OVERVIEW: A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IN CENTRAL TX AT 03Z WILL TRACK
EAST TO THE TX/LA BORDER BY 12Z SUN. MEANWHILE...SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH GULF
COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AN H85 WARM FRONT
OVER GA/FL AT 03Z WILL LIFT NORTH TO THE GA/SC BORDER BY 12Z SUN.

00Z RAOB DATA SHOWED RAPID/PRONOUNCED MOISTENING UNDERWAY IN THE
CAROLINAS. FOR EXAMPLE...34 DEGREE 925 MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSION ON THE
12Z/MHX RAOB DECREASED TO 5 DEGREES BY 00Z. SOUTHERLY FLOW /WARM
ADVECTION/ ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE
DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY...AS EVIDENCED BY RADAR ECHOES EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
OVER GA/SC THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST COMBINED WITH
DPVA ATTENDANT SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM SW-NE OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT
RAIN LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SW PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS NEAR THE SC
BORDER BY SUNRISE. W/REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...LOWS HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS STEADYING AND EVENTUALLY
RISING LATE TONIGHT IN ASSOC/W INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 PM SATURDAY...

SUN AND SUN NIGHT: STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING SFC-H85 WARM FRONT AND DPVA ATTENDANT SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWED BY THE DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LOW
TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE APPALACHIANS WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING/MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SW-NE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFFECT THE
ENTIRE AREA SUN AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL PEAK IN THE FORM OF A WNW-ESE
ORIENTED LINE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FORM AT THE NOSE OF
THE 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AS THE H85 WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL NC. SURFACE TEMPS WILL INITIALLY FALL AT THE ONSET
OF RAIN SUN MORNING DUE TO LINGERING DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE...
HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION VIA INCREASINGLY E/SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
AN INEVITABLE WARMING TREND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH HIGHS
(MID/UPPER 50S FAR NW PIEDMONT TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE) NOT OCCURRING
UNTIL SUN EVENING/NIGHT WHEN THE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. EXPECT A WIDESPREAD 0.50-1.00" OF RAIN SUN/SUN EVENING
PRIOR TO THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE BULK OF WHICH MAY OCCUR WITH
ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES UNIDIRECTIONAL (SW) WITH NO
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...NO ADDITIONAL WARM ADVECTION...AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF DPVA EXCEPT PERHAPS SPORADIC SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES IN SW
FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...PRECIP SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM SW-NE IN
THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP AFTER
MIDNIGHT (05Z MONDAY).

SEVERE POTENTIAL: PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST A LOW POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THAT THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING (ASSOC/W
THE DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LOW) IS EXPECTED TO 1) LAG BEHIND THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL FORCING /SFC WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE/ AND 2) TRACK THROUGH
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. AS A RESULT...LIGHTNING THAT
OCCURS IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY BE ASSOC/W
ELEVATED CONVECTION. WORST CASE SCENARIO...SHOULD ISOLD CONVECTION
BECOME SFC BASED ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN (I.E.
SAMPSON/WAYNE) IN/AROUND THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME...A POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF TOR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT. -VINCENT

MON AND MON NIGHT: THE AXIS OF A 50 KT LLJ...IN DEEP SW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAY MONDAY...IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MON
AND MON EVENING - A SOLUTION BEST REPRESENTED BY THE SLOWER 12Z
ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE. THE PASSAGE OF THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...THEN LATER FRONTAL FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS - AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN AN AXIS OF LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN - ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONG AND
INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW...AFTER THE EARLY
MORNING WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...MIXING OF THE
STRONG LLJ WILL RESULT IN A VERY BREEZY SW WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND
20 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH PROBABLE PER ~35 KT MIXED
LAYER WIND FORECASTS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

AFTER PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EVENING...COLD AND DRY ADVECTION...AND CLEARING...WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD AND RESULT IN LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.  -MWS

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM SATURDAY...

TUE-WED: 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS TUE...THEN EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TUE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
ALOFT FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL INDUCE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS...ALONG AN
OLD FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTH EAST...REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW AS IT LIFTS UP THE
SOUTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH MID WEEK...RANGING FROM
THE WELL OFFSHORE AND TOTALLY DRY-FOR-CENTRAL-NC CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
OF RECENT DAYS...TO THE CLOUDY AND WET SOLUTIONS DEPICTED BY THE
PAST FEW ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT AND ONLY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH ALOFT...THE MORE WESTWARD (AND
WET) SOLUTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE FRONT AND INCIPIENT COASTAL LOW ARE
FAVORED...WITH A LOW TRACK MOST PROBABLE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF
THE GULF STREAM.

THE RESULT WOULD BE RAIN DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND
ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A COLD RAIN LIKELY AND  TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S...ON WED. THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARENT POLAR HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK (AROUND 1025 MB)
AND POSITIONED FARTHER SOUTH (OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES) THAN
IS TYPICAL FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL NC...THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND
RESULTANT PARTIAL THICKNESSES ON THE WEST/NW SIDE SUGGEST AT LEAST A
THREAT OF A LITTLE WEST SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY
PRECIPITATION RATES...AND THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WED NIGHT-SAT: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT (THAN RECENT DAYS) REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD
TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SUCH A PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF NC)...AND
MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
PATTERN OF NW TO WNW FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFFSHORE AND EXTENDING BACK INTO CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC) MAY BRING SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE IS STILL LOW. IN
ADDITION... SOME LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SPRINKLES MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA
WITH A LEADING BAND OF PRECIP MORNING NORTHWARD OUT OF GA/SC EARLY
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMO EXPECT ONLY LIGHT RAIN AT BEST (VFR
CONDITIONS).

ANY SUB VFR CONDITIONS THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL IMPROVE BY
MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THESE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
AVIATION CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM THE SOUTH/WEST TO NORTH/EAST AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS
PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH... WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING... WITH POSSIBLE LLWS
(ESPECIALLY AT KGSO/KINT) AS LOW LEVEL FLOW ATOP AN INITIAL COOL
STABLE AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE INCREASINGS TO AROUND 50 KTS AT AROUND
2 KFT OUT OF THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IMPACTS THE AREA. A STRONG 50-60KT LOW LEVEL
JET MAY CAUSE SOME CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME
ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW
CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH) MONDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BSD/KRD





000
FXUS62 KRAH 230613
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
113 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING...THEN SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID-
ATLANTIC LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

OVERVIEW: A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IN CENTRAL TX AT 03Z WILL TRACK
EAST TO THE TX/LA BORDER BY 12Z SUN. MEANWHILE...SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH GULF
COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AN H85 WARM FRONT
OVER GA/FL AT 03Z WILL LIFT NORTH TO THE GA/SC BORDER BY 12Z SUN.

00Z RAOB DATA SHOWED RAPID/PRONOUNCED MOISTENING UNDERWAY IN THE
CAROLINAS. FOR EXAMPLE...34 DEGREE 925 MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSION ON THE
12Z/MHX RAOB DECREASED TO 5 DEGREES BY 00Z. SOUTHERLY FLOW /WARM
ADVECTION/ ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE
DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY...AS EVIDENCED BY RADAR ECHOES EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
OVER GA/SC THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST COMBINED WITH
DPVA ATTENDANT SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM SW-NE OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT
RAIN LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SW PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS NEAR THE SC
BORDER BY SUNRISE. W/REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...LOWS HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS STEADYING AND EVENTUALLY
RISING LATE TONIGHT IN ASSOC/W INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 PM SATURDAY...

SUN AND SUN NIGHT: STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING SFC-H85 WARM FRONT AND DPVA ATTENDANT SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWED BY THE DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LOW
TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE APPALACHIANS WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING/MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SW-NE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFFECT THE
ENTIRE AREA SUN AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL PEAK IN THE FORM OF A WNW-ESE
ORIENTED LINE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FORM AT THE NOSE OF
THE 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AS THE H85 WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL NC. SURFACE TEMPS WILL INITIALLY FALL AT THE ONSET
OF RAIN SUN MORNING DUE TO LINGERING DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE...
HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION VIA INCREASINGLY E/SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
AN INEVITABLE WARMING TREND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH HIGHS
(MID/UPPER 50S FAR NW PIEDMONT TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE) NOT OCCURRING
UNTIL SUN EVENING/NIGHT WHEN THE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. EXPECT A WIDESPREAD 0.50-1.00" OF RAIN SUN/SUN EVENING
PRIOR TO THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE BULK OF WHICH MAY OCCUR WITH
ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES UNIDIRECTIONAL (SW) WITH NO
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...NO ADDITIONAL WARM ADVECTION...AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF DPVA EXCEPT PERHAPS SPORADIC SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES IN SW
FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...PRECIP SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM SW-NE IN
THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP AFTER
MIDNIGHT (05Z MONDAY).

SEVERE POTENTIAL: PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST A LOW POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THAT THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING (ASSOC/W
THE DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LOW) IS EXPECTED TO 1) LAG BEHIND THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL FORCING /SFC WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE/ AND 2) TRACK THROUGH
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. AS A RESULT...LIGHTNING THAT
OCCURS IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY BE ASSOC/W
ELEVATED CONVECTION. WORST CASE SCENARIO...SHOULD ISOLD CONVECTION
BECOME SFC BASED ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN (I.E.
SAMPSON/WAYNE) IN/AROUND THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME...A POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF TOR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT. -VINCENT

MON AND MON NIGHT: THE AXIS OF A 50 KT LLJ...IN DEEP SW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAY MONDAY...IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MON
AND MON EVENING - A SOLUTION BEST REPRESENTED BY THE SLOWER 12Z
ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE. THE PASSAGE OF THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...THEN LATER FRONTAL FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS - AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN AN AXIS OF LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN - ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONG AND
INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW...AFTER THE EARLY
MORNING WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...MIXING OF THE
STRONG LLJ WILL RESULT IN A VERY BREEZY SW WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND
20 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH PROBABLE PER ~35 KT MIXED
LAYER WIND FORECASTS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

AFTER PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EVENING...COLD AND DRY ADVECTION...AND CLEARING...WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD AND RESULT IN LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.  -MWS

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM SATURDAY...

TUE-WED: 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS TUE...THEN EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TUE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
ALOFT FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL INDUCE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS...ALONG AN
OLD FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTH EAST...REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW AS IT LIFTS UP THE
SOUTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH MID WEEK...RANGING FROM
THE WELL OFFSHORE AND TOTALLY DRY-FOR-CENTRAL-NC CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
OF RECENT DAYS...TO THE CLOUDY AND WET SOLUTIONS DEPICTED BY THE
PAST FEW ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT AND ONLY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH ALOFT...THE MORE WESTWARD (AND
WET) SOLUTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE FRONT AND INCIPIENT COASTAL LOW ARE
FAVORED...WITH A LOW TRACK MOST PROBABLE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF
THE GULF STREAM.

THE RESULT WOULD BE RAIN DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND
ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A COLD RAIN LIKELY AND  TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S...ON WED. THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARENT POLAR HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK (AROUND 1025 MB)
AND POSITIONED FARTHER SOUTH (OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES) THAN
IS TYPICAL FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL NC...THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND
RESULTANT PARTIAL THICKNESSES ON THE WEST/NW SIDE SUGGEST AT LEAST A
THREAT OF A LITTLE WEST SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY
PRECIPITATION RATES...AND THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WED NIGHT-SAT: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT (THAN RECENT DAYS) REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD
TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SUCH A PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF NC)...AND
MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
PATTERN OF NW TO WNW FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OFFSHORE AND EXTENDING BACK INTO CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC) MAY BRING SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE IS STILL LOW. IN
ADDITION... SOME LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SPRINKLES MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA
WITH A LEADING BAND OF PRECIP MORNING NORTHWARD OUT OF GA/SC EARLY
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMO EXPECT ONLY LIGHT RAIN AT BEST (VFR
CONDITIONS).

ANY SUB VFR CONDITIONS THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL IMPROVE BY
MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THESE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
AVIATION CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM THE SOUTH/WEST TO NORTH/EAST AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS
PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH... WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING... WITH POSSIBLE LLWS
(ESPECIALLY AT KGSO/KINT) AS LOW LEVEL FLOW ATOP AN INITIAL COOL
STABLE AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE INCREASINGS TO AROUND 50 KTS AT AROUND
2 KFT OUT OF THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IMPACTS THE AREA. A STRONG 50-60KT LOW LEVEL
JET MAY CAUSE SOME CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME
ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW
CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH) MONDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BSD/VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BSD/KRD




000
FXUS62 KRAH 230439
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1139 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID-
ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

OVERVIEW: A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IN CENTRAL TX AT 03Z WILL TRACK
EAST TO THE TX/LA BORDER BY 12Z SUN. MEANWHILE...SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH GULF
COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AN H85 WARM FRONT
OVER GA/FL AT 03Z WILL LIFT NORTH TO THE GA/SC BORDER BY 12Z SUN.

00Z RAOB DATA SHOWED RAPID/PRONOUNCED MOISTENING UNDERWAY IN THE
CAROLINAS. FOR EXAMPLE...34 DEGREE 925 MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSION ON THE
12Z/MHX RAOB DECREASED TO 5 DEGREES BY 00Z. SOUTHERLY FLOW /WARM
ADVECTION/ ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE
DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY...AS EVIDENCED BY RADAR ECHOES EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
OVER GA/SC THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST COMBINED WITH
DPVA ATTENDANT SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM SW-NE OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT
RAIN LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SW PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS NEAR THE SC
BORDER BY SUNRISE. W/REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...LOWS HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS STEADYING AND EVENTUALLY
RISING LATE TONIGHT IN ASSOC/W INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 PM SATURDAY...

SUN AND SUN NIGHT: STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING SFC-H85 WARM FRONT AND DPVA ATTENDANT SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWED BY THE DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LOW
TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE APPALACHIANS WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING/MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SW-NE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFFECT THE
ENTIRE AREA SUN AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL PEAK IN THE FORM OF A WNW-ESE
ORIENTED LINE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FORM AT THE NOSE OF
THE 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AS THE H85 WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL NC. SURFACE TEMPS WILL INITIALLY FALL AT THE ONSET
OF RAIN SUN MORNING DUE TO LINGERING DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE...
HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION VIA INCREASINGLY E/SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
AN INEVITABLE WARMING TREND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH HIGHS
(MID/UPPER 50S FAR NW PIEDMONT TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE) NOT OCCURRING
UNTIL SUN EVENING/NIGHT WHEN THE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. EXPECT A WIDESPREAD 0.50-1.00" OF RAIN SUN/SUN EVENING
PRIOR TO THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE BULK OF WHICH MAY OCCUR WITH
ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES UNIDIRECTIONAL (SW) WITH NO
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...NO ADDITIONAL WARM ADVECTION...AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF DPVA EXCEPT PERHAPS SPORADIC SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES IN SW
FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...PRECIP SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM SW-NE IN
THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP AFTER
MIDNIGHT (05Z MONDAY).

SEVERE POTENTIAL: PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST A LOW POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THAT THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING (ASSOC/W
THE DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LOW) IS EXPECTED TO 1) LAG BEHIND THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL FORCING /SFC WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE/ AND 2) TRACK THROUGH
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. AS A RESULT...LIGHTNING THAT
OCCURS IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY BE ASSOC/W
ELEVATED CONVECTION. WORST CASE SCENARIO...SHOULD ISOLD CONVECTION
BECOME SFC BASED ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN (I.E.
SAMPSON/WAYNE) IN/AROUND THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME...A POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF TOR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT. -VINCENT

MON AND MON NIGHT: THE AXIS OF A 50 KT LLJ...IN DEEP SW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAY MONDAY...IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MON
AND MON EVENING - A SOLUTION BEST REPRESENTED BY THE SLOWER 12Z
ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE. THE PASSAGE OF THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...THEN LATER FRONTAL FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS - AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN AN AXIS OF LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN - ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONG AND
INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW...AFTER THE EARLY
MORNING WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...MIXING OF THE
STRONG LLJ WILL RESULT IN A VERY BREEZY SW WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND
20 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH PROBABLE PER ~35 KT MIXED
LAYER WIND FORECASTS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

AFTER PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EVENING...COLD AND DRY ADVECTION...AND CLEARING...WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD AND RESULT IN LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.  -MWS

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM SATURDAY...

TUE-WED: 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS TUE...THEN EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TUE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
ALOFT FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL INDUCE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS...ALONG AN
OLD FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTH EAST...REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW AS IT LIFTS UP THE
SOUTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH MID WEEK...RANGING FROM
THE WELL OFFSHORE AND TOTALLY DRY-FOR-CENTRAL-NC CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
OF RECENT DAYS...TO THE CLOUDY AND WET SOLUTIONS DEPICTED BY THE
PAST FEW ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT AND ONLY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH ALOFT...THE MORE WESTWARD (AND
WET) SOLUTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE FRONT AND INCIPIENT COASTAL LOW ARE
FAVORED...WITH A LOW TRACK MOST PROBABLE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF
THE GULF STREAM.

THE RESULT WOULD BE RAIN DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND
ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A COLD RAIN LIKELY AND  TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S...ON WED. THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARENT POLAR HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK (AROUND 1025 MB)
AND POSITIONED FARTHER SOUTH (OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES) THAN
IS TYPICAL FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL NC...THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND
RESULTANT PARTIAL THICKNESSES ON THE WEST/NW SIDE SUGGEST AT LEAST A
THREAT OF A LITTLE WEST SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY
PRECIPITATION RATES...AND THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WED NIGHT-SAT: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT (THAN RECENT DAYS) REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD
TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SUCH A PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF NC)...AND
MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
PATTERN OF NW TO WNW FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC) MAY BRING SOME
STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. ANY SUB VFR CONDITIONS THAT MAY DEVELOP
WILL IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THESE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS AVIATION CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM THE SOUTH/WEST
TO NORTH/EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CIGS/VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IMPACTS THE AREA. A STRONG 50-60KT
LOW LEVEL JET MAY CAUSE SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME
ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW
CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH) MONDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KRD/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 230439
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1139 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID-
ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

OVERVIEW: A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IN CENTRAL TX AT 03Z WILL TRACK
EAST TO THE TX/LA BORDER BY 12Z SUN. MEANWHILE...SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH GULF
COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AN H85 WARM FRONT
OVER GA/FL AT 03Z WILL LIFT NORTH TO THE GA/SC BORDER BY 12Z SUN.

00Z RAOB DATA SHOWED RAPID/PRONOUNCED MOISTENING UNDERWAY IN THE
CAROLINAS. FOR EXAMPLE...34 DEGREE 925 MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSION ON THE
12Z/MHX RAOB DECREASED TO 5 DEGREES BY 00Z. SOUTHERLY FLOW /WARM
ADVECTION/ ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE
DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY...AS EVIDENCED BY RADAR ECHOES EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
OVER GA/SC THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST COMBINED WITH
DPVA ATTENDANT SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM SW-NE OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT
RAIN LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SW PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS NEAR THE SC
BORDER BY SUNRISE. W/REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...LOWS HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS STEADYING AND EVENTUALLY
RISING LATE TONIGHT IN ASSOC/W INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 PM SATURDAY...

SUN AND SUN NIGHT: STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING SFC-H85 WARM FRONT AND DPVA ATTENDANT SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWED BY THE DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LOW
TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE APPALACHIANS WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING/MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SW-NE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFFECT THE
ENTIRE AREA SUN AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL PEAK IN THE FORM OF A WNW-ESE
ORIENTED LINE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FORM AT THE NOSE OF
THE 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AS THE H85 WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL NC. SURFACE TEMPS WILL INITIALLY FALL AT THE ONSET
OF RAIN SUN MORNING DUE TO LINGERING DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE...
HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION VIA INCREASINGLY E/SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
AN INEVITABLE WARMING TREND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH HIGHS
(MID/UPPER 50S FAR NW PIEDMONT TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE) NOT OCCURRING
UNTIL SUN EVENING/NIGHT WHEN THE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL NC. EXPECT A WIDESPREAD 0.50-1.00" OF RAIN SUN/SUN EVENING
PRIOR TO THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE BULK OF WHICH MAY OCCUR WITH
ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. AFTER THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES UNIDIRECTIONAL (SW) WITH NO
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...NO ADDITIONAL WARM ADVECTION...AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF DPVA EXCEPT PERHAPS SPORADIC SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES IN SW
FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...PRECIP SHOULD RAPIDLY END FROM SW-NE IN
THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP AFTER
MIDNIGHT (05Z MONDAY).

SEVERE POTENTIAL: PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST A LOW POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THAT THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING (ASSOC/W
THE DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LOW) IS EXPECTED TO 1) LAG BEHIND THE BEST
LOW-LEVEL FORCING /SFC WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE/ AND 2) TRACK THROUGH
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. AS A RESULT...LIGHTNING THAT
OCCURS IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY BE ASSOC/W
ELEVATED CONVECTION. WORST CASE SCENARIO...SHOULD ISOLD CONVECTION
BECOME SFC BASED ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN (I.E.
SAMPSON/WAYNE) IN/AROUND THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME...A POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF TOR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT. -VINCENT

MON AND MON NIGHT: THE AXIS OF A 50 KT LLJ...IN DEEP SW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAY MONDAY...IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MON
AND MON EVENING - A SOLUTION BEST REPRESENTED BY THE SLOWER 12Z
ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE. THE PASSAGE OF THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...THEN LATER FRONTAL FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS - AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN AN AXIS OF LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN - ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONG AND
INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW...AFTER THE EARLY
MORNING WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...MIXING OF THE
STRONG LLJ WILL RESULT IN A VERY BREEZY SW WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND
20 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH PROBABLE PER ~35 KT MIXED
LAYER WIND FORECASTS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

AFTER PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EVENING...COLD AND DRY ADVECTION...AND CLEARING...WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD AND RESULT IN LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.  -MWS

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM SATURDAY...

TUE-WED: 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS TUE...THEN EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TUE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
ALOFT FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL INDUCE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS...ALONG AN
OLD FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTH EAST...REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW AS IT LIFTS UP THE
SOUTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH MID WEEK...RANGING FROM
THE WELL OFFSHORE AND TOTALLY DRY-FOR-CENTRAL-NC CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
OF RECENT DAYS...TO THE CLOUDY AND WET SOLUTIONS DEPICTED BY THE
PAST FEW ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT AND ONLY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH ALOFT...THE MORE WESTWARD (AND
WET) SOLUTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE FRONT AND INCIPIENT COASTAL LOW ARE
FAVORED...WITH A LOW TRACK MOST PROBABLE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF
THE GULF STREAM.

THE RESULT WOULD BE RAIN DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND
ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A COLD RAIN LIKELY AND  TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S...ON WED. THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARENT POLAR HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK (AROUND 1025 MB)
AND POSITIONED FARTHER SOUTH (OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES) THAN
IS TYPICAL FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL NC...THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND
RESULTANT PARTIAL THICKNESSES ON THE WEST/NW SIDE SUGGEST AT LEAST A
THREAT OF A LITTLE WEST SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY
PRECIPITATION RATES...AND THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WED NIGHT-SAT: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT (THAN RECENT DAYS) REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD
TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SUCH A PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF NC)...AND
MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
PATTERN OF NW TO WNW FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC) MAY BRING SOME
STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. ANY SUB VFR CONDITIONS THAT MAY DEVELOP
WILL IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THESE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS AVIATION CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM THE SOUTH/WEST
TO NORTH/EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CIGS/VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IMPACTS THE AREA. A STRONG 50-60KT
LOW LEVEL JET MAY CAUSE SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME
ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW
CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH) MONDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT/MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KRD/BLS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 230344
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1044 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID-
ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

OVERVIEW: A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IN CENTRAL TX AT 03Z WILL TRACK
EAST TO THE TX/LA BORDER BY 12Z SUN. MEANWHILE...SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH GULF
COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AN H85 WARM FRONT
OVER GA/FL AT 03Z WILL LIFT NORTH TO THE GA/SC BORDER BY 12Z SUN.

00Z RAOB DATA SHOWED RAPID/PRONOUNCED MOISTENING UNDERWAY IN THE
CAROLINAS. FOR EXAMPLE...34 DEGREE 925 MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSION ON THE
12Z/MHX RAOB DECREASED TO 5 DEGREES BY 00Z. SOUTHERLY FLOW /WARM
ADVECTION/ ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE
DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY...AS EVIDENCED BY RADAR ECHOES EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
OVER GA/SC THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST COMBINED WITH
DPVA ATTENDANT SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM SW-NE OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT
RAIN LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SW PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS NEAR THE SC
BORDER BY SUNRISE. W/REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...LOWS HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS STEADYING AND EVENTUALLY
RISING LATE TONIGHT IN ASSOC/W INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 410 PM SATURDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST TX WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING...DEAMPLIFYING AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO LIFT WELL WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...A 50-60KT LLJ WILL BRING PW OF OVER 1.75 INCHES
WITHIN THE ASSOCIATED WARM CONVEYOR BELT LATE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL ISENTROPIC FIELDS...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA FORM THE SOUTH MID-MORNING... THOUGH PRECIP
WILL INITIALLY HAVE TO OVERCOME THE RATHER DRY AND ONLY SLOW
MOISTENING AIRMASS OVER NC.  THE HEAVIER PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE
SURFACE/850MB WARM FRONTS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER
21Z...AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME WILL BE THE BEST
FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN.

TEMPS... WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLY
SUNDAY...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST A
WEAK...STABLE WEDGE AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.  HIGHS IN
THE TRIAD MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 40S...WHILE TEMPS
WILL HAVE LITTLE MORE TIME TO WARM INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TO THE
EAST.  TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR CONTINUE RISING
SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
SURGES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.  WHETHER OR NOT THE WEDGE AIRMASS IS
ERODED IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AS MODELS INDICATE...IS
UNCERTAIN.  BUT FOR MANY AREAS...HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL AFTER
SUNSET.

SEVERE THREAT... STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME WEAK
DESTABILIZATION...ELEVATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND NEAR SURFACE BASED
IN THE SOUTHEAST.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND WITH
THE BETTER PUSH OF THE MARITIME AIR...WITH THE NAM SHOWING AS MUCH
AS 200-600 J/KG MLCAPE AT KFAY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S.
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE HIGHEST MLCAPE GENERATED BY ANY OPERATIONAL
NWP...WITH THE GFS/SREF SHOWING 100-300 J/KG...AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION WILL FURTHER LIMIT CAPE. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASING TO 50-70KT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLULAR
STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CROSSING SC
AND SOUTHEASTERN NC.  IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW
LATE SUNDAY EVENING WHEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LINE UP WITH
STRONG CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND LOW-END
TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.  FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE WEAK..BUT DPVA FROM
THE VORT LOBE ATTENDANT TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLATED STORM EVEN BACK TOWARD THE TRIAD. -BLS

MON AND MON NIGHT: THE AXIS OF A 50 KT LLJ...IN DEEP SW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAY MONDAY...IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MON
AND MON EVENING - A SOLUTION BEST REPRESENTED BY THE SLOWER 12Z
ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE. THE PASSAGE OF THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...THEN LATER FRONTAL FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS - AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN AN AXIS OF LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN - ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONG AND
INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW...AFTER THE EARLY
MORNING WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...MIXING OF THE
STRONG LLJ WILL RESULT IN A VERY BREEZY SW WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND
20 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH PROBABLE PER ~35 KT MIXED
LAYER WIND FORECASTS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

AFTER PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EVENING...COLD AND DRY ADVECTION...AND CLEARING...WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD AND RESULT IN LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.  -MWS

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM SATURDAY...

TUE-WED: 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS TUE...THEN EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TUE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
ALOFT FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL INDUCE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS...ALONG AN
OLD FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTH EAST...REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW AS IT LIFTS UP THE
SOUTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH MID WEEK...RANGING FROM
THE WELL OFFSHORE AND TOTALLY DRY-FOR-CENTRAL-NC CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
OF RECENT DAYS...TO THE CLOUDY AND WET SOLUTIONS DEPICTED BY THE
PAST FEW ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT AND ONLY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH ALOFT...THE MORE WESTWARD (AND
WET) SOLUTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE FRONT AND INCIPIENT COASTAL LOW ARE
FAVORED...WITH A LOW TRACK MOST PROBABLE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF
THE GULF STREAM.

THE RESULT WOULD BE RAIN DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND
ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A COLD RAIN LIKELY AND  TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S...ON WED. THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARENT POLAR HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK (AROUND 1025 MB)
AND POSITIONED FARTHER SOUTH (OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES) THAN
IS TYPICAL FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL NC...THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND
RESULTANT PARTIAL THICKNESSES ON THE WEST/NW SIDE SUGGEST AT LEAST A
THREAT OF A LITTLE WEST SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY
PRECIPITATION RATES...AND THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WED NIGHT-SAT: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT (THAN RECENT DAYS) REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD
TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SUCH A PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF NC)...AND
MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
PATTERN OF NW TO WNW FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC) MAY BRING SOME
STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. ANY SUB VFR CONDITIONS THAT MAY DEVELOP
WILL IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THESE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS AVIATION CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM THE SOUTH/WEST
TO NORTH/EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CIGS/VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IMPACTS THE AREA. A STRONG 50-60KT
LOW LEVEL JET MAY CAUSE SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME
ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW
CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH) MONDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...BLS/MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KRD/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 230344
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1044 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID-
ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

OVERVIEW: A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IN CENTRAL TX AT 03Z WILL TRACK
EAST TO THE TX/LA BORDER BY 12Z SUN. MEANWHILE...SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH GULF
COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AN H85 WARM FRONT
OVER GA/FL AT 03Z WILL LIFT NORTH TO THE GA/SC BORDER BY 12Z SUN.

00Z RAOB DATA SHOWED RAPID/PRONOUNCED MOISTENING UNDERWAY IN THE
CAROLINAS. FOR EXAMPLE...34 DEGREE 925 MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSION ON THE
12Z/MHX RAOB DECREASED TO 5 DEGREES BY 00Z. SOUTHERLY FLOW /WARM
ADVECTION/ ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE
DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY...AS EVIDENCED BY RADAR ECHOES EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
OVER GA/SC THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST COMBINED WITH
DPVA ATTENDANT SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM SW-NE OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT
RAIN LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SW PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS NEAR THE SC
BORDER BY SUNRISE. W/REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...LOWS HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS STEADYING AND EVENTUALLY
RISING LATE TONIGHT IN ASSOC/W INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 410 PM SATURDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST TX WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING...DEAMPLIFYING AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO LIFT WELL WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...A 50-60KT LLJ WILL BRING PW OF OVER 1.75 INCHES
WITHIN THE ASSOCIATED WARM CONVEYOR BELT LATE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL ISENTROPIC FIELDS...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA FORM THE SOUTH MID-MORNING... THOUGH PRECIP
WILL INITIALLY HAVE TO OVERCOME THE RATHER DRY AND ONLY SLOW
MOISTENING AIRMASS OVER NC.  THE HEAVIER PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE
SURFACE/850MB WARM FRONTS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER
21Z...AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME WILL BE THE BEST
FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN.

TEMPS... WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLY
SUNDAY...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST A
WEAK...STABLE WEDGE AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.  HIGHS IN
THE TRIAD MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 40S...WHILE TEMPS
WILL HAVE LITTLE MORE TIME TO WARM INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TO THE
EAST.  TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR CONTINUE RISING
SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
SURGES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.  WHETHER OR NOT THE WEDGE AIRMASS IS
ERODED IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AS MODELS INDICATE...IS
UNCERTAIN.  BUT FOR MANY AREAS...HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL AFTER
SUNSET.

SEVERE THREAT... STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME WEAK
DESTABILIZATION...ELEVATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND NEAR SURFACE BASED
IN THE SOUTHEAST.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND WITH
THE BETTER PUSH OF THE MARITIME AIR...WITH THE NAM SHOWING AS MUCH
AS 200-600 J/KG MLCAPE AT KFAY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S.
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE HIGHEST MLCAPE GENERATED BY ANY OPERATIONAL
NWP...WITH THE GFS/SREF SHOWING 100-300 J/KG...AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION WILL FURTHER LIMIT CAPE. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASING TO 50-70KT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLULAR
STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CROSSING SC
AND SOUTHEASTERN NC.  IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW
LATE SUNDAY EVENING WHEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LINE UP WITH
STRONG CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND LOW-END
TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.  FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE WEAK..BUT DPVA FROM
THE VORT LOBE ATTENDANT TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLATED STORM EVEN BACK TOWARD THE TRIAD. -BLS

MON AND MON NIGHT: THE AXIS OF A 50 KT LLJ...IN DEEP SW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAY MONDAY...IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MON
AND MON EVENING - A SOLUTION BEST REPRESENTED BY THE SLOWER 12Z
ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE. THE PASSAGE OF THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...THEN LATER FRONTAL FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS - AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN AN AXIS OF LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN - ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONG AND
INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW...AFTER THE EARLY
MORNING WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...MIXING OF THE
STRONG LLJ WILL RESULT IN A VERY BREEZY SW WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND
20 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH PROBABLE PER ~35 KT MIXED
LAYER WIND FORECASTS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

AFTER PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EVENING...COLD AND DRY ADVECTION...AND CLEARING...WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD AND RESULT IN LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.  -MWS

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM SATURDAY...

TUE-WED: 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS TUE...THEN EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TUE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
ALOFT FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL INDUCE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS...ALONG AN
OLD FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTH EAST...REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW AS IT LIFTS UP THE
SOUTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH MID WEEK...RANGING FROM
THE WELL OFFSHORE AND TOTALLY DRY-FOR-CENTRAL-NC CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
OF RECENT DAYS...TO THE CLOUDY AND WET SOLUTIONS DEPICTED BY THE
PAST FEW ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT AND ONLY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH ALOFT...THE MORE WESTWARD (AND
WET) SOLUTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE FRONT AND INCIPIENT COASTAL LOW ARE
FAVORED...WITH A LOW TRACK MOST PROBABLE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF
THE GULF STREAM.

THE RESULT WOULD BE RAIN DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND
ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A COLD RAIN LIKELY AND  TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S...ON WED. THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARENT POLAR HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK (AROUND 1025 MB)
AND POSITIONED FARTHER SOUTH (OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES) THAN
IS TYPICAL FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL NC...THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND
RESULTANT PARTIAL THICKNESSES ON THE WEST/NW SIDE SUGGEST AT LEAST A
THREAT OF A LITTLE WEST SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY
PRECIPITATION RATES...AND THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WED NIGHT-SAT: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT (THAN RECENT DAYS) REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD
TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SUCH A PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF NC)...AND
MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
PATTERN OF NW TO WNW FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC) MAY BRING SOME
STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. ANY SUB VFR CONDITIONS THAT MAY DEVELOP
WILL IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THESE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS AVIATION CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM THE SOUTH/WEST
TO NORTH/EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CIGS/VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IMPACTS THE AREA. A STRONG 50-60KT
LOW LEVEL JET MAY CAUSE SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME
ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW
CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH) MONDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...BLS/MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KRD/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 230344
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1044 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID-
ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...

OVERVIEW: A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IN CENTRAL TX AT 03Z WILL TRACK
EAST TO THE TX/LA BORDER BY 12Z SUN. MEANWHILE...SMALL AMPLITUDE
WAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH GULF
COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AN H85 WARM FRONT
OVER GA/FL AT 03Z WILL LIFT NORTH TO THE GA/SC BORDER BY 12Z SUN.

00Z RAOB DATA SHOWED RAPID/PRONOUNCED MOISTENING UNDERWAY IN THE
CAROLINAS. FOR EXAMPLE...34 DEGREE 925 MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSION ON THE
12Z/MHX RAOB DECREASED TO 5 DEGREES BY 00Z. SOUTHERLY FLOW /WARM
ADVECTION/ ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE
DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY...AS EVIDENCED BY RADAR ECHOES EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
OVER GA/SC THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
THE SFC-H85 WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST COMBINED WITH
DPVA ATTENDANT SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM SW-NE OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT
RAIN LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SW PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS NEAR THE SC
BORDER BY SUNRISE. W/REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...LOWS HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS STEADYING AND EVENTUALLY
RISING LATE TONIGHT IN ASSOC/W INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 410 PM SATURDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST TX WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING...DEAMPLIFYING AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO LIFT WELL WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...A 50-60KT LLJ WILL BRING PW OF OVER 1.75 INCHES
WITHIN THE ASSOCIATED WARM CONVEYOR BELT LATE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL ISENTROPIC FIELDS...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA FORM THE SOUTH MID-MORNING... THOUGH PRECIP
WILL INITIALLY HAVE TO OVERCOME THE RATHER DRY AND ONLY SLOW
MOISTENING AIRMASS OVER NC.  THE HEAVIER PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE
SURFACE/850MB WARM FRONTS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER
21Z...AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME WILL BE THE BEST
FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN.

TEMPS... WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLY
SUNDAY...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST A
WEAK...STABLE WEDGE AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.  HIGHS IN
THE TRIAD MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 40S...WHILE TEMPS
WILL HAVE LITTLE MORE TIME TO WARM INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TO THE
EAST.  TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR CONTINUE RISING
SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
SURGES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.  WHETHER OR NOT THE WEDGE AIRMASS IS
ERODED IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AS MODELS INDICATE...IS
UNCERTAIN.  BUT FOR MANY AREAS...HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL AFTER
SUNSET.

SEVERE THREAT... STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME WEAK
DESTABILIZATION...ELEVATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND NEAR SURFACE BASED
IN THE SOUTHEAST.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND WITH
THE BETTER PUSH OF THE MARITIME AIR...WITH THE NAM SHOWING AS MUCH
AS 200-600 J/KG MLCAPE AT KFAY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S.
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE HIGHEST MLCAPE GENERATED BY ANY OPERATIONAL
NWP...WITH THE GFS/SREF SHOWING 100-300 J/KG...AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION WILL FURTHER LIMIT CAPE. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASING TO 50-70KT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLULAR
STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CROSSING SC
AND SOUTHEASTERN NC.  IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW
LATE SUNDAY EVENING WHEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LINE UP WITH
STRONG CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND LOW-END
TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.  FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE WEAK..BUT DPVA FROM
THE VORT LOBE ATTENDANT TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLATED STORM EVEN BACK TOWARD THE TRIAD. -BLS

MON AND MON NIGHT: THE AXIS OF A 50 KT LLJ...IN DEEP SW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAY MONDAY...IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MON
AND MON EVENING - A SOLUTION BEST REPRESENTED BY THE SLOWER 12Z
ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE. THE PASSAGE OF THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...THEN LATER FRONTAL FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS - AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN AN AXIS OF LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN - ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONG AND
INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW...AFTER THE EARLY
MORNING WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...MIXING OF THE
STRONG LLJ WILL RESULT IN A VERY BREEZY SW WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND
20 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH PROBABLE PER ~35 KT MIXED
LAYER WIND FORECASTS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

AFTER PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EVENING...COLD AND DRY ADVECTION...AND CLEARING...WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD AND RESULT IN LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.  -MWS

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM SATURDAY...

TUE-WED: 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS TUE...THEN EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TUE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
ALOFT FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL INDUCE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS...ALONG AN
OLD FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTH EAST...REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW AS IT LIFTS UP THE
SOUTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH MID WEEK...RANGING FROM
THE WELL OFFSHORE AND TOTALLY DRY-FOR-CENTRAL-NC CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
OF RECENT DAYS...TO THE CLOUDY AND WET SOLUTIONS DEPICTED BY THE
PAST FEW ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT AND ONLY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH ALOFT...THE MORE WESTWARD (AND
WET) SOLUTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE FRONT AND INCIPIENT COASTAL LOW ARE
FAVORED...WITH A LOW TRACK MOST PROBABLE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF
THE GULF STREAM.

THE RESULT WOULD BE RAIN DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND
ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A COLD RAIN LIKELY AND  TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S...ON WED. THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARENT POLAR HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK (AROUND 1025 MB)
AND POSITIONED FARTHER SOUTH (OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES) THAN
IS TYPICAL FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL NC...THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND
RESULTANT PARTIAL THICKNESSES ON THE WEST/NW SIDE SUGGEST AT LEAST A
THREAT OF A LITTLE WEST SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY
PRECIPITATION RATES...AND THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WED NIGHT-SAT: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT (THAN RECENT DAYS) REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD
TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SUCH A PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF NC)...AND
MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
PATTERN OF NW TO WNW FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC) MAY BRING SOME
STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. ANY SUB VFR CONDITIONS THAT MAY DEVELOP
WILL IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THESE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS AVIATION CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM THE SOUTH/WEST
TO NORTH/EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CIGS/VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IMPACTS THE AREA. A STRONG 50-60KT
LOW LEVEL JET MAY CAUSE SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME
ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW
CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH) MONDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...BLS/MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KRD/BLS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 230000
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
700 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EXTENDS EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...WHILE A FEW PATCHES OF CIRRUS DRIFT OVERHEAD IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  OTHERWISE...REGIONAL VIS SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...WITH MOISTURE JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO SURGE INLAND FROM THE GOMEX ACROSS SOUTHERN GA/AL.
EXPECT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NIGHT...BEFORE THICKER CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS BEGIN TO ADVECTION IN
FROM THE SOUTH.  IN ADDITION...MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH MAY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS LATE TONIGHT....WITH SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC.  LOWS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BEST FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT...MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL
SEE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 410 PM SATURDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST TX WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING...DEAMPLIFYING AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO LIFT WELL WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...A 50-60KT LLJ WILL BRING PW OF OVER 1.75 INCHES
WITHIN THE ASSOCIATED WARM CONVEYOR BELT LATE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL ISENTROPIC FIELDS...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA FORM THE SOUTH MID-MORNING... THOUGH PRECIP
WILL INITIALLY HAVE TO OVERCOME THE RATHER DRY AND ONLY SLOW
MOISTENING AIRMASS OVER NC.  THE HEAVIER PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE
SURFACE/850MB WARM FRONTS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER
21Z...AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME WILL BE THE BEST
FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN.

TEMPS... WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLY
SUNDAY...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST A
WEAK...STABLE WEDGE AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.  HIGHS IN
THE TRIAD MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 40S...WHILE TEMPS
WILL HAVE LITTLE MORE TIME TO WARM INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TO THE
EAST.  TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR CONTINUE RISING
SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
SURGES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.  WHETHER OR NOT THE WEDGE AIRMASS IS
ERODED IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AS MODELS INDICATE...IS
UNCERTAIN.  BUT FOR MANY AREAS...HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL AFTER
SUNSET.

SEVERE THREAT... STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME WEAK
DESTABILIZATION...ELEVATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND NEAR SURFACE BASED IN
THE SOUTHEAST.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND WITH THE
BETTER PUSH OF THE MARITIME AIR...WITH THE NAM SHOWING AS MUCH AS
200-600 J/KG MLCAPE AT KFAY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S.
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE HIGHEST MLCAPE GENERATED BY ANY OPERATIONAL
NWP...WITH THE GFS/SREF SHOWING 100-300 J/KG...AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION WILL FURTHER LIMIT CAPE. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASING TO 50-70KT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLULAR
STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CROSSING SC
AND SOUTHEASTERN NC.  IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW
LATE SUNDAY EVENING WHEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LINE UP WITH
STRONG CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND LOW-END
TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.  FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE WEAK..BUT DPVA FROM
THE VORT LOBE ATTENDANT TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLATED STORM EVEN BACK TOWARD THE TRIAD. -BLS

MON AND MON NIGHT: THE AXIS OF A 50 KT LLJ...IN DEEP SW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAY MONDAY...IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MON
AND MON EVENING - A SOLUTION BEST REPRESENTED BY THE SLOWER 12Z
ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE. THE PASSAGE OF THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...THEN LATER FRONTAL FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS - AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN AN AXIS OF LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN - ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONG AND
INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW...AFTER THE EARLY
MORNING WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...MIXING OF THE
STRONG LLJ WILL RESULT IN A VERY BREEZY SW WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND
20 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH PROBABLE PER ~35 KT MIXED
LAYER WIND FORECASTS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

AFTER PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EVENING...COLD AND DRY ADVECTION...AND CLEARING...WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD AND RESULT IN LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.  -MWS

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM SATURDAY...

TUE-WED: 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS TUE...THEN EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TUE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
ALOFT FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL INDUCE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS...ALONG AN
OLD FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTH EAST...REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW AS IT LIFTS UP THE
SOUTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH MID WEEK...RANGING FROM
THE WELL OFFSHORE AND TOTALLY DRY-FOR-CENTRAL-NC CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
OF RECENT DAYS...TO THE CLOUDY AND WET SOLUTIONS DEPICTED BY THE
PAST FEW ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT AND ONLY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH ALOFT...THE MORE WESTWARD (AND
WET) SOLUTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE FRONT AND INCIPIENT COASTAL LOW ARE
FAVORED...WITH A LOW TRACK MOST PROBABLE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF
THE GULF STREAM.

THE RESULT WOULD BE RAIN DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND
ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A COLD RAIN LIKELY AND  TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S...ON WED. THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARENT POLAR HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK (AROUND 1025 MB)
AND POSITIONED FARTHER SOUTH (OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES) THAN
IS TYPICAL FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL NC...THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND
RESULTANT PARTIAL THICKNESSES ON THE WEST/NW SIDE SUGGEST AT LEAST A
THREAT OF A LITTLE WEST SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY
PRECIPITATION RATES...AND THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WED NIGHT-SAT: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT (THAN RECENT DAYS) REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD
TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SUCH A PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF NC)...AND
MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
PATTERN OF NW TO WNW FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC) MAY BRING SOME
STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. ANY SUB VFR CONDITIONS THAT MAY DEVELOP
WILL IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THESE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS AVIATION CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FROM THE SOUTH/WEST
TO NORTH/EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CIGS/VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR RANGE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS PRECIP OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH.

OUTLOOK...ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IMPACTS THE AREA. A STRONG 50-60KT
LOW LEVEL JET MAY CAUSE SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME
ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW
CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH) MONDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION BY MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

 &&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS/MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KRD/BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 222109
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
410 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EXTENDS EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY
....WHILE A FEW PATCHES OF CIRRUS DRIFT OVERHEAD IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  OTHERWISE...REGIONAL VIS SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...WITH MOISTURE JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO SURGE INLAND FROM THE GOMEX ACROSS SOUTHERN GA/AL.
EXPECT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NIGHT...BEFORE THICKER CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS BEGIN TO ADVECTION IN
FROM THE SOUTH.  IN ADDITION...MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH MAY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS LATE TONIGHT....WITH SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC.  LOWS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BEST FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT...MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL
SEE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 410 PM SATURDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST TX WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING...DEAMPLIFYING AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO LIFT WELL WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...A 50-60KT LLJ WILL BRING PW OF OVER 1.75 INCHES
WITHIN THE ASSOCIATED WARM CONVEYOR BELT LATE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL ISENTROPIC FIELDS...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA FORM THE SOUTH MID-MORNING... THOUGH PRECIP
WILL INITIALLY HAVE TO OVERCOME THE RATHER DRY AND ONLY SLOW
MOISTENING AIRMASS OVER NC.  THE HEAVIER PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE
SURFACE/850MB WARM FRONTS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER
21Z...AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME WILL BE THE BEST
FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN.

TEMPS... WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLY
SUNDAY...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST A
WEAK...STABLE WEDGE AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.  HIGHS IN
THE TRIAD MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 40S...WHILE TEMPS
WILL HAVE LITTLE MORE TIME TO WARM INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TO THE
EAST.  TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR CONTINUE RISING
SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
SURGES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.  WHETHER OR NOT THE WEDGE AIRMASS IS
ERODED IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AS MODELS INDICATE...IS
UNCERTAIN.  BUT FOR MANY AREAS...HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL AFTER
SUNSET.

SEVERE THREAT... STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME WEAK
DESTABILIZATION...ELEVATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND NEAR SURFACE BASED IN
THE SOUTHEAST.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND WITH THE
BETTER PUSH OF THE MARITIME AIR...WITH THE NAM SHOWING AS MUCH AS
200-600 J/KG MLCAPE AT KFAY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S.
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE HIGHEST MLCAPE GENERATED BY ANY OPERATIONAL
NWP...WITH THE GFS/SREF SHOWING 100-300 J/KG...AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION WILL FURTHER LIMIT CAPE. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASING TO 50-70KT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLULAR
STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CROSSING SC
AND SOUTHEASTERN NC.  IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW
LATE SUNDAY EVENING WHEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LINE UP WITH
STRONG CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND LOW-END
TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.  FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE WEAK..BUT DPVA FROM
THE VORT LOBE ATTENDANT TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLATED STORM EVEN BACK TOWARD THE TRIAD. -BLS

MON AND MON NIGHT: THE AXIS OF A 50 KT LLJ...IN DEEP SW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAY MONDAY...IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MON
AND MON EVENING - A SOLUTION BEST REPRESENTED BY THE SLOWER 12Z
ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE. THE PASSAGE OF THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...THEN LATER FRONTAL FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS - AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN AN AXIS OF LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN - ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONG AND
INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW...AFTER THE EARLY
MORNING WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...MIXING OF THE
STRONG LLJ WILL RESULT IN A VERY BREEZY SW WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND
20 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH PROBABLE PER ~35 KT MIXED
LAYER WIND FORECASTS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

AFTER PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EVENING...COLD AND DRY ADVECTION...AND CLEARING...WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD AND RESULT IN LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.  -MWS

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM SATURDAY...

TUE-WED: 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS TUE...THEN EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TUE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
ALOFT FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL INDUCE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS...ALONG AN
OLD FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTH EAST...REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW AS IT LIFTS UP THE
SOUTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH MID WEEK...RANGING FROM
THE WELL OFFSHORE AND TOTALLY DRY-FOR-CENTRAL-NC CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
OF RECENT DAYS...TO THE CLOUDY AND WET SOLUTIONS DEPICTED BY THE
PAST FEW ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT AND ONLY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH ALOFT...THE MORE WESTWARD (AND
WET) SOLUTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE FRONT AND INCIPIENT COASTAL LOW ARE
FAVORED...WITH A LOW TRACK MOST PROBABLE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF
THE GULF STREAM.

THE RESULT WOULD BE RAIN DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND
ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A COLD RAIN LIKELY AND  TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S...ON WED. THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARENT POLAR HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK (AROUND 1025 MB)
AND POSITIONED FARTHER SOUTH (OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES) THAN
IS TYPICAL FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL NC...THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND
RESULTANT PARTIAL THICKNESSES ON THE WEST/NW SIDE SUGGEST AT LEAST A
THREAT OF A LITTLE WEST SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY
PRECIPITATION RATES...AND THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WED NIGHT-SAT: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT (THAN RECENT DAYS) REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD
TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SUCH A PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF NC)...AND
MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
PATTERN OF NW TO WNW FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES JUST OFFSHORE.  RETURN FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC MAY BRING SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE
TONIGHT.  CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS POINT DUE TO SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  USING THE SREF AS A GUIDE...MVFR
CEILINGS (~2500 FT) MAY DEVELOP AROUND 09Z AND LAST THROUGH 13-14Z.
THE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST LESS OF A CHANCE OF
CEILINGS AT KRDU AND EVEN LESS AT KRWI.  AT KFAY...INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS MAY CAUSE MAINLY MVFR VSBYS BY 12Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY MID-MORNING...BUT
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.  A STRONG 50-60KT
LOW LEVEL JET MAY CAUSE SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS.
BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY
MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

 &&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS/MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 222109
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
410 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EXTENDS EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY
....WHILE A FEW PATCHES OF CIRRUS DRIFT OVERHEAD IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  OTHERWISE...REGIONAL VIS SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...WITH MOISTURE JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO SURGE INLAND FROM THE GOMEX ACROSS SOUTHERN GA/AL.
EXPECT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NIGHT...BEFORE THICKER CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS BEGIN TO ADVECTION IN
FROM THE SOUTH.  IN ADDITION...MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH MAY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS LATE TONIGHT....WITH SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC.  LOWS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BEST FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT...MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL
SEE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 410 PM SATURDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST TX WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY MORNING...DEAMPLIFYING AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO LIFT WELL WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...A 50-60KT LLJ WILL BRING PW OF OVER 1.75 INCHES
WITHIN THE ASSOCIATED WARM CONVEYOR BELT LATE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF MODEL ISENTROPIC FIELDS...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA FORM THE SOUTH MID-MORNING... THOUGH PRECIP
WILL INITIALLY HAVE TO OVERCOME THE RATHER DRY AND ONLY SLOW
MOISTENING AIRMASS OVER NC.  THE HEAVIER PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE
SURFACE/850MB WARM FRONTS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER
21Z...AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME WILL BE THE BEST
FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN.

TEMPS... WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLY
SUNDAY...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AT LEAST A
WEAK...STABLE WEDGE AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.  HIGHS IN
THE TRIAD MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 40S...WHILE TEMPS
WILL HAVE LITTLE MORE TIME TO WARM INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TO THE
EAST.  TEMPS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR CONTINUE RISING
SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
SURGES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.  WHETHER OR NOT THE WEDGE AIRMASS IS
ERODED IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...AS MODELS INDICATE...IS
UNCERTAIN.  BUT FOR MANY AREAS...HIGHS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL AFTER
SUNSET.

SEVERE THREAT... STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME WEAK
DESTABILIZATION...ELEVATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND NEAR SURFACE BASED IN
THE SOUTHEAST.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND WITH THE
BETTER PUSH OF THE MARITIME AIR...WITH THE NAM SHOWING AS MUCH AS
200-600 J/KG MLCAPE AT KFAY AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID 60S.
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE HIGHEST MLCAPE GENERATED BY ANY OPERATIONAL
NWP...WITH THE GFS/SREF SHOWING 100-300 J/KG...AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION WILL FURTHER LIMIT CAPE. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASING TO 50-70KT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLULAR
STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CROSSING SC
AND SOUTHEASTERN NC.  IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW
LATE SUNDAY EVENING WHEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LINE UP WITH
STRONG CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND LOW-END
TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.  FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE WEAK..BUT DPVA FROM
THE VORT LOBE ATTENDANT TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH FOR
AN ISOLATED STORM EVEN BACK TOWARD THE TRIAD. -BLS

MON AND MON NIGHT: THE AXIS OF A 50 KT LLJ...IN DEEP SW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAY MONDAY...IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MON
AND MON EVENING - A SOLUTION BEST REPRESENTED BY THE SLOWER 12Z
ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE. THE PASSAGE OF THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...THEN LATER FRONTAL FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS - AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN AN AXIS OF LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN - ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONG AND
INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW...AFTER THE EARLY
MORNING WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...MIXING OF THE
STRONG LLJ WILL RESULT IN A VERY BREEZY SW WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND
20 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH PROBABLE PER ~35 KT MIXED
LAYER WIND FORECASTS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

AFTER PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EVENING...COLD AND DRY ADVECTION...AND CLEARING...WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD AND RESULT IN LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.  -MWS

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM SATURDAY...

TUE-WED: 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS TUE...THEN EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TUE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
ALOFT FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL INDUCE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS...ALONG AN
OLD FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTH EAST...REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW AS IT LIFTS UP THE
SOUTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH MID WEEK...RANGING FROM
THE WELL OFFSHORE AND TOTALLY DRY-FOR-CENTRAL-NC CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
OF RECENT DAYS...TO THE CLOUDY AND WET SOLUTIONS DEPICTED BY THE
PAST FEW ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT AND ONLY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH ALOFT...THE MORE WESTWARD (AND
WET) SOLUTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE FRONT AND INCIPIENT COASTAL LOW ARE
FAVORED...WITH A LOW TRACK MOST PROBABLE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF
THE GULF STREAM.

THE RESULT WOULD BE RAIN DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND
ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A COLD RAIN LIKELY AND  TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S...ON WED. THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARENT POLAR HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK (AROUND 1025 MB)
AND POSITIONED FARTHER SOUTH (OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES) THAN
IS TYPICAL FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL NC...THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND
RESULTANT PARTIAL THICKNESSES ON THE WEST/NW SIDE SUGGEST AT LEAST A
THREAT OF A LITTLE WEST SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY
PRECIPITATION RATES...AND THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WED NIGHT-SAT: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT (THAN RECENT DAYS) REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD
TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SUCH A PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF NC)...AND
MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
PATTERN OF NW TO WNW FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES JUST OFFSHORE.  RETURN FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC MAY BRING SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE
TONIGHT.  CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS POINT DUE TO SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  USING THE SREF AS A GUIDE...MVFR
CEILINGS (~2500 FT) MAY DEVELOP AROUND 09Z AND LAST THROUGH 13-14Z.
THE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST LESS OF A CHANCE OF
CEILINGS AT KRDU AND EVEN LESS AT KRWI.  AT KFAY...INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS MAY CAUSE MAINLY MVFR VSBYS BY 12Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY MID-MORNING...BUT
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.  A STRONG 50-60KT
LOW LEVEL JET MAY CAUSE SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS.
BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY
MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

 &&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS/MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BLS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 222055
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
355 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EXTENDS EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY
....WHILE A FEW PATCHES OF CIRRUS DRIFT OVERHEAD IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  OTHERWISE...REGIONAL VIS SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...WITH MOISTURE JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO SURGE INLAND FROM THE GOMEX ACROSS SOUTHERN GA/AL.
EXPECT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NIGHT...BEFORE THICKER CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS BEGIN TO ADVECTION IN
FROM THE SOUTH.  IN ADDITION...MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH MAY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS LATE TONIGHT....WITH SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC.  LOWS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BEST FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT...MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL
SEE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...

MON AND MON NIGHT: THE AXIS OF A 50 KT LLJ...IN DEEP SW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAY MONDAY...IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MON
AND MON EVENING - A SOLUTION BEST REPRESENTED BY THE SLOWER 12Z
ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE. THE PASSAGE OF THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...THEN LATER FRONTAL FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS - AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN AN AXIS OF LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN - ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONG AND
INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW...AFTER THE EARLY
MORNING WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...MIXING OF THE
STRONG LLJ WILL RESULT IN A VERY BREEZY SW WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND
20 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH PROBABLE PER ~35 KT MIXED
LAYER WIND FORECASTS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

AFTER PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EVENING...COLD AND DRY ADVECTION...AND CLEARING...WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD AND RESULT IN LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM SATURDAY...

TUE-WED: 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS TUE...THEN EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TUE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
ALOFT FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL INDUCE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS...ALONG AN
OLD FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTH EAST...REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW AS IT LIFTS UP THE
SOUTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH MID WEEK...RANGING FROM
THE WELL OFFSHORE AND TOTALLY DRY-FOR-CENTRAL-NC CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
OF RECENT DAYS...TO THE CLOUDY AND WET SOLUTIONS DEPICTED BY THE
PAST FEW ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT AND ONLY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH ALOFT...THE MORE WESTWARD (AND
WET) SOLUTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE FRONT AND INCIPIENT COASTAL LOW ARE
FAVORED...WITH A LOW TRACK MOST PROBABLE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF
THE GULF STREAM.

THE RESULT WOULD BE RAIN DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND
ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A COLD RAIN LIKELY AND  TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S...ON WED. THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARENT POLAR HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK (AROUND 1025 MB)
AND POSITIONED FARTHER SOUTH (OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES) THAN
IS TYPICAL FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL NC...THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND
RESULTANT PARTIAL THICKNESSES ON THE WEST/NW SIDE SUGGEST AT LEAST A
THREAT OF A LITTLE WEST SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY
PRECIPITATION RATES...AND THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WED NIGHT-SAT: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT (THAN RECENT DAYS) REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD
TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SUCH A PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF NC)...AND
MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
PATTERN OF NW TO WNW FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES JUST OFFSHORE.  RETURN FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC MAY BRING SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE
TONIGHT.  CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS POINT DUE TO SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  USING THE SREF AS A GUIDE...MVFR
CEILINGS (~2500 FT) MAY DEVELOP AROUND 09Z AND LAST THROUGH 13-14Z.
THE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST LESS OF A CHANCE OF
CEILINGS AT KRDU AND EVEN LESS AT KRWI.  AT KFAY...INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS MAY CAUSE MAINLY MVFR VSBYS BY 12Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY MID-MORNING...BUT
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.  A STRONG 50-60KT
LOW LEVEL JET MAY CAUSE SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS.
BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY
MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

 &&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BLS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 222055
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
355 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EXTENDS EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY
....WHILE A FEW PATCHES OF CIRRUS DRIFT OVERHEAD IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  OTHERWISE...REGIONAL VIS SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...WITH MOISTURE JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO SURGE INLAND FROM THE GOMEX ACROSS SOUTHERN GA/AL.
EXPECT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NIGHT...BEFORE THICKER CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS BEGIN TO ADVECTION IN
FROM THE SOUTH.  IN ADDITION...MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH MAY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS LATE TONIGHT....WITH SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC.  LOWS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BEST FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT...MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL
SEE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM SATURDAY...

MON AND MON NIGHT: THE AXIS OF A 50 KT LLJ...IN DEEP SW FLOW
ALOFT...WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAY MONDAY...IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE MON
AND MON EVENING - A SOLUTION BEST REPRESENTED BY THE SLOWER 12Z
ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE. THE PASSAGE OF THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...THEN LATER FRONTAL FORCING/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS - AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN AN AXIS OF LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN - ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONG AND
INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW...AFTER THE EARLY
MORNING WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...MIXING OF THE
STRONG LLJ WILL RESULT IN A VERY BREEZY SW WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND
20 MPH...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH PROBABLE PER ~35 KT MIXED
LAYER WIND FORECASTS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

AFTER PERHAPS A LINGERING SHOWER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EVENING...COLD AND DRY ADVECTION...AND CLEARING...WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD AND RESULT IN LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 40 WEST TO LOWER 50S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM SATURDAY...

TUE-WED: 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS TUE...THEN EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TUE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACH OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
ALOFT FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL INDUCE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS...ALONG AN
OLD FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTH EAST...REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS COASTAL LOW AS IT LIFTS UP THE
SOUTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH MID WEEK...RANGING FROM
THE WELL OFFSHORE AND TOTALLY DRY-FOR-CENTRAL-NC CANADIAN SOLUTIONS
OF RECENT DAYS...TO THE CLOUDY AND WET SOLUTIONS DEPICTED BY THE
PAST FEW ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT AND ONLY SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH ALOFT...THE MORE WESTWARD (AND
WET) SOLUTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE FRONT AND INCIPIENT COASTAL LOW ARE
FAVORED...WITH A LOW TRACK MOST PROBABLE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF
THE GULF STREAM.

THE RESULT WOULD BE RAIN DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TUE AND
ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT...WITH A COLD RAIN LIKELY AND  TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S...ON WED. THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED
PARENT POLAR HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK (AROUND 1025 MB)
AND POSITIONED FARTHER SOUTH (OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES) THAN
IS TYPICAL FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL NC...THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND
RESULTANT PARTIAL THICKNESSES ON THE WEST/NW SIDE SUGGEST AT LEAST A
THREAT OF A LITTLE WEST SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE
PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...AND
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT OVER THE PIEDMONT PER GFS BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SUCH SNOW WOULD LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY
PRECIPITATION RATES...AND THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WED NIGHT-SAT: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT (THAN RECENT DAYS) REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD
TROUGH ALOFT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CANADA TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SUCH A PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES (JUST TO THE NORTH OF NC)...AND
MILDER/MORE MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
PATTERN OF NW TO WNW FLOW ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES JUST OFFSHORE.  RETURN FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC MAY BRING SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE
TONIGHT.  CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS POINT DUE TO SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  USING THE SREF AS A GUIDE...MVFR
CEILINGS (~2500 FT) MAY DEVELOP AROUND 09Z AND LAST THROUGH 13-14Z.
THE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST LESS OF A CHANCE OF
CEILINGS AT KRDU AND EVEN LESS AT KRWI.  AT KFAY...INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS MAY CAUSE MAINLY MVFR VSBYS BY 12Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY MID-MORNING...BUT
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.  A STRONG 50-60KT
LOW LEVEL JET MAY CAUSE SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS.
BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY
MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

 &&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 222009
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EXTENDS EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY
....WHILE A FEW PATCHES OF CIRRUS DRIFT OVERHEAD IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  OTHERWISE...REGIONAL VIS SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...WITH MOISTURE JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO SURGE INLAND FROM THE GOMEX ACROSS SOUTHERN GA/AL.
EXPECT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NIGHT...BEFORE THICKER CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS BEGIN TO ADVECTION IN
FROM THE SOUTH.  IN ADDITION...MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH MAY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS LATE TONIGHT....WITH SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC.  LOWS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BEST FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT...MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL
SEE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE SLOW TO BRING IN GOOD LIFT TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS PARAMETERS...INCLUDING 850MB
THETA-E...K INDICES...GENERAL 850MB LIFT...700MB VORTICITY...AMONG
OTHERS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 18Z TO 05Z. HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST FROM 20Z TO 04Z...AND SOME OF THE WRF GUIDANCE IS EVEN
SLOWER THAN THAT WITH THE ONSET PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH
AND EAST. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY END UP TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ANTICIPATE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGING. EXCEPT IN THE
TRIAD...GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE...AND WILL PLAN TO GO
BETWEEN THERE. IF RAIN WOULD MOVE IN EARLIER...WOULD ALMOST
CERTAINLY LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NAM BUT WITH SOME WRF GUIDANCE VOID
OF MUCH PRECIPITATION EVEN TO 18Z SUNDAY THINK AT LEAST A BLEND IS
WISE. IN TERMS OF THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS PROVIDE FOR GREATEST
LAPSE RATES VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT WHICH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
FORECAST MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING 850MB SUBSIDENCE. 1000-500MB MUCAPE ON THE GFS IS LESS
THAN 200J/KG AND THE SHERBS3 IS LESS THAN ONE...BUT THE NAM IS
NOTICEABLY MORE UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SURFACE-
BASED CONCERNS ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH A SLIGHT INVERSION
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. 0-3KM SHEAR AND HELICITY...AS EXPECTED...
ARE VERY HIGH AS WINDS JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE GREATLY.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING SUNDAY EVENING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS AT LEAST THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT LEAST ELEVATED THUNDER...AND FOR THE HWO WILL
LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF AT LEAST WIND GUSTS TO 40MPH OR A LITTLE
HIGHER AS EVEN SHOWERS IN A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT...
WITH 925MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KT...SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW QUITE
NOTICEABLE WIND GUSTS SIMPLY WITH PRECIPITATION. SPC HAS NOTED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WHERE THUNDER WILL BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST AND WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHFUL OF INSTABILITY
TRENDS IN LATER FORECASTS...AS OTHER PARAMETERS ARE PLENTY HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE HIGHS SUNDAY...STEADY TO RISING IN THE TRIAD
AND MAYBE A DIFFERENCE OF A DEGREE OR TWO ELSEWHERE IN GENERAL. -DJF

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT
AIRMASS IS JUST TOO DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING/LIFT ALOFT TO
SUPPORT POPS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 NW TO MID 70S SE. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE AS CAA
SPREADS WEST TO EAST. -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EMBEDDED AT THE
BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST
REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT JETSTREAK. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. AS SUCH... WILL RAISE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST TO LIKELY
IN THE EAST. NO P-TYPE ISSUES HERE WITH JUST A COLD RAIN FOR CENTRAL
NC. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30 NW TO LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. PRECIP AND CLOUDS PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING EASTWARD WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
CAROLINAS.  ITS WORTH NOTING THAT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS
ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-STARVED... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CONTINUITY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WILL
PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT LOOKS ALMOST CERTAIN HOWEVER THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL DELIVER ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES JUST OFFSHORE.  RETURN FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC MAY BRING SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE
TONIGHT.  CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS POINT DUE TO SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  USING THE SREF AS A GUIDE...MVFR
CEILINGS (~2500 FT) MAY DEVELOP AROUND 09Z AND LAST THROUGH 13-14Z.
THE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST LESS OF A CHANCE OF
CEILINGS AT KRDU AND EVEN LESS AT KRWI.  AT KFAY...INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS MAY CAUSE MAINLY MVFR VSBYS BY 12Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY MID-MORNING...BUT
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.  A STRONG 50-60KT
LOW LEVEL JET MAY CAUSE SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS.
BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY
MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

 &&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...DJF/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 222009
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE EXTENDS EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY
....WHILE A FEW PATCHES OF CIRRUS DRIFT OVERHEAD IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  OTHERWISE...REGIONAL VIS SAT IMAGERY
SHOWS VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...WITH MOISTURE JUST NOW
BEGINNING TO SURGE INLAND FROM THE GOMEX ACROSS SOUTHERN GA/AL.
EXPECT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
NIGHT...BEFORE THICKER CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS BEGIN TO ADVECTION IN
FROM THE SOUTH.  IN ADDITION...MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE SURFACE
HIGH MAY LEAD TO SOME STRATUS LATE TONIGHT....WITH SREF
PROBABILITIES SHOWING THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC.  LOWS ACROSS THE
NORTH...WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BEST FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT...MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL
SEE MID AND UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE SLOW TO BRING IN GOOD LIFT TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS PARAMETERS...INCLUDING 850MB
THETA-E...K INDICES...GENERAL 850MB LIFT...700MB VORTICITY...AMONG
OTHERS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 18Z TO 05Z. HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST FROM 20Z TO 04Z...AND SOME OF THE WRF GUIDANCE IS EVEN
SLOWER THAN THAT WITH THE ONSET PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH
AND EAST. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY END UP TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ANTICIPATE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGING. EXCEPT IN THE
TRIAD...GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE...AND WILL PLAN TO GO
BETWEEN THERE. IF RAIN WOULD MOVE IN EARLIER...WOULD ALMOST
CERTAINLY LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NAM BUT WITH SOME WRF GUIDANCE VOID
OF MUCH PRECIPITATION EVEN TO 18Z SUNDAY THINK AT LEAST A BLEND IS
WISE. IN TERMS OF THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS PROVIDE FOR GREATEST
LAPSE RATES VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT WHICH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
FORECAST MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING 850MB SUBSIDENCE. 1000-500MB MUCAPE ON THE GFS IS LESS
THAN 200J/KG AND THE SHERBS3 IS LESS THAN ONE...BUT THE NAM IS
NOTICEABLY MORE UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SURFACE-
BASED CONCERNS ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH A SLIGHT INVERSION
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. 0-3KM SHEAR AND HELICITY...AS EXPECTED...
ARE VERY HIGH AS WINDS JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE GREATLY.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING SUNDAY EVENING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS AT LEAST THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT LEAST ELEVATED THUNDER...AND FOR THE HWO WILL
LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF AT LEAST WIND GUSTS TO 40MPH OR A LITTLE
HIGHER AS EVEN SHOWERS IN A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT...
WITH 925MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KT...SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW QUITE
NOTICEABLE WIND GUSTS SIMPLY WITH PRECIPITATION. SPC HAS NOTED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WHERE THUNDER WILL BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST AND WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHFUL OF INSTABILITY
TRENDS IN LATER FORECASTS...AS OTHER PARAMETERS ARE PLENTY HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE HIGHS SUNDAY...STEADY TO RISING IN THE TRIAD
AND MAYBE A DIFFERENCE OF A DEGREE OR TWO ELSEWHERE IN GENERAL. -DJF

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT
AIRMASS IS JUST TOO DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING/LIFT ALOFT TO
SUPPORT POPS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 NW TO MID 70S SE. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE AS CAA
SPREADS WEST TO EAST. -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EMBEDDED AT THE
BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST
REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT JETSTREAK. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. AS SUCH... WILL RAISE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST TO LIKELY
IN THE EAST. NO P-TYPE ISSUES HERE WITH JUST A COLD RAIN FOR CENTRAL
NC. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30 NW TO LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. PRECIP AND CLOUDS PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING EASTWARD WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
CAROLINAS.  ITS WORTH NOTING THAT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS
ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-STARVED... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CONTINUITY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WILL
PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT LOOKS ALMOST CERTAIN HOWEVER THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL DELIVER ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES JUST OFFSHORE.  RETURN FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC MAY BRING SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE
TONIGHT.  CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS POINT DUE TO SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  USING THE SREF AS A GUIDE...MVFR
CEILINGS (~2500 FT) MAY DEVELOP AROUND 09Z AND LAST THROUGH 13-14Z.
THE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST LESS OF A CHANCE OF
CEILINGS AT KRDU AND EVEN LESS AT KRWI.  AT KFAY...INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS MAY CAUSE MAINLY MVFR VSBYS BY 12Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY MID-MORNING...BUT
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.  A STRONG 50-60KT
LOW LEVEL JET MAY CAUSE SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS.
BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY
MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

 &&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...DJF/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BLS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 221758
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
100 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE TODAY BUT STILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
PATCHY CIRRUS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIFT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY.  THE 12Z KGSO RAOB SHOWS
A VERY STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 925MB AND 850MB...AND LIMITED MIXING
WILL KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 49-54
RANGE...COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST. -BLS

OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT IT MAY BE A SLOW
INCREASE AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY IN THE MEAN AT LEAST THROUGH
06Z MONDAY...AND MOISTURE ALOFT DOES NOT SHOW A STRONG INCREASE ON
BUFR SOUNDINGS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
ALSO SHOWS A SLOW AND GRADUAL INCREASE...AND EVEN A FEW AREAS OF
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST EVEN
LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FORECAST ON THE COLD SIDE OF
GUIDANCE AND A FEW OF THESE LOWS MAY EVEN BE TOO HIGH IF LESS CLOUDS
OCCUR FOR LONGER PERIODS IN THE OVERNIGHT. UNDER THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF DEEPER MOISTURE. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE NAM
IS FAIRLY MOIST ALOFT...BUT THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY.
THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS JUST BEGINNING TO APPROACH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AT 12Z SUNDAY...AND THOSE
MODELS ARE ALSO SUBSIDENT AT THAT LAYER AT THAT TIME. DESPITE THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...FOR EXAMPLE...SUFFICIENT WARMING ALOFT PUSHES
THICKNESSES WELL INTO THE LIQUID CATEGORY...AND SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD
BE VERY CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY AND THEN ALMOST CERTAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SPRINKLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE SLOW TO BRING IN GOOD LIFT TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS PARAMETERS...INCLUDING 850MB
THETA-E...K INDICES...GENERAL 850MB LIFT...700MB VORTICITY...AMONG
OTHERS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 18Z TO 05Z. HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST FROM 20Z TO 04Z...AND SOME OF THE WRF GUIDANCE IS EVEN
SLOWER THAN THAT WITH THE ONSET PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH
AND EAST. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY END UP TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ANTICIPATE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGING. EXCEPT IN THE
TRIAD...GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE...AND WILL PLAN TO GO
BETWEEN THERE. IF RAIN WOULD MOVE IN EARLIER...WOULD ALMOST
CERTAINLY LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NAM BUT WITH SOME WRF GUIDANCE VOID
OF MUCH PRECIPITATION EVEN TO 18Z SUNDAY THINK AT LEAST A BLEND IS
WISE. IN TERMS OF THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS PROVIDE FOR GREATEST
LAPSE RATES VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT WHICH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
FORECAST MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING 850MB SUBSIDENCE. 1000-500MB MUCAPE ON THE GFS IS LESS
THAN 200J/KG AND THE SHERBS3 IS LESS THAN ONE...BUT THE NAM IS
NOTICEABLY MORE UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SURFACE-
BASED CONCERNS ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH A SLIGHT INVERSION
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. 0-3KM SHEAR AND HELICITY...AS EXPECTED...
ARE VERY HIGH AS WINDS JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE GREATLY.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING SUNDAY EVENING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS AT LEAST THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT LEAST ELEVATED THUNDER...AND FOR THE HWO WILL
LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF AT LEAST WIND GUSTS TO 40MPH OR A LITTLE
HIGHER AS EVEN SHOWERS IN A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT...
WITH 925MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KT...SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW QUITE
NOTICEABLE WIND GUSTS SIMPLY WITH PRECIPITATION. SPC HAS NOTED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WHERE THUNDER WILL BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST AND WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHFUL OF INSTABILITY
TRENDS IN LATER FORECASTS...AS OTHER PARAMETERS ARE PLENTY HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE HIGHS SUNDAY...STEADY TO RISING IN THE TRIAD
AND MAYBE A DIFFERENCE OF A DEGREE OR TWO ELSEWHERE IN GENERAL. -DJF

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT
AIRMASS IS JUST TOO DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING/LIFT ALOFT TO
SUPPORT POPS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 NW TO MID 70S SE. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE AS CAA
SPREADS WEST TO EAST. -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EMBEDDED AT THE
BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST
REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT JETSTREAK. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. AS SUCH... WILL RAISE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST TO LIKELY
IN THE EAST. NO P-TYPE ISSUES HERE WITH JUST A COLD RAIN FOR CENTRAL
NC. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30 NW TO LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. PRECIP AND CLOUDS PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING EASTWARD WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
CAROLINAS.  ITS WORTH NOTING THAT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS
ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-STARVED... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CONTINUITY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WILL
PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT LOOKS ALMOST CERTAIN HOWEVER THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL DELIVER ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES JUST OFFSHORE.  RETURN FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC MAY BRING SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE
TONIGHT.  CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS POINT DUE TO SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  USING THE SREF AS A GUIDE...MVFR
CEILINGS (~2500 FT) MAY DEVELOP AROUND 09Z AND LAST THROUGH 13-14Z.
THE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST LESS OF A CHANCE OF
CEILINGS AT KRDU AND EVEN LESS AT KRWI.  AT KFAY...INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS MAY CAUSE MAINLY MVFR VSBYS BY 12Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY MID-MORNING...BUT
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.  A STRONG 50-60KT
LOW LEVEL JET MAY CAUSE SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS.
BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY
MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

 &&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/BLS
SHORT TERM...DJF/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BLS




000
FXUS62 KRAH 221758
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
100 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE TODAY BUT STILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
PATCHY CIRRUS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIFT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY.  THE 12Z KGSO RAOB SHOWS
A VERY STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 925MB AND 850MB...AND LIMITED MIXING
WILL KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 49-54
RANGE...COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST. -BLS

OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT IT MAY BE A SLOW
INCREASE AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY IN THE MEAN AT LEAST THROUGH
06Z MONDAY...AND MOISTURE ALOFT DOES NOT SHOW A STRONG INCREASE ON
BUFR SOUNDINGS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
ALSO SHOWS A SLOW AND GRADUAL INCREASE...AND EVEN A FEW AREAS OF
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST EVEN
LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FORECAST ON THE COLD SIDE OF
GUIDANCE AND A FEW OF THESE LOWS MAY EVEN BE TOO HIGH IF LESS CLOUDS
OCCUR FOR LONGER PERIODS IN THE OVERNIGHT. UNDER THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF DEEPER MOISTURE. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE NAM
IS FAIRLY MOIST ALOFT...BUT THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY.
THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS JUST BEGINNING TO APPROACH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AT 12Z SUNDAY...AND THOSE
MODELS ARE ALSO SUBSIDENT AT THAT LAYER AT THAT TIME. DESPITE THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...FOR EXAMPLE...SUFFICIENT WARMING ALOFT PUSHES
THICKNESSES WELL INTO THE LIQUID CATEGORY...AND SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD
BE VERY CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY AND THEN ALMOST CERTAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SPRINKLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE SLOW TO BRING IN GOOD LIFT TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS PARAMETERS...INCLUDING 850MB
THETA-E...K INDICES...GENERAL 850MB LIFT...700MB VORTICITY...AMONG
OTHERS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 18Z TO 05Z. HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST FROM 20Z TO 04Z...AND SOME OF THE WRF GUIDANCE IS EVEN
SLOWER THAN THAT WITH THE ONSET PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH
AND EAST. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY END UP TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ANTICIPATE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGING. EXCEPT IN THE
TRIAD...GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE...AND WILL PLAN TO GO
BETWEEN THERE. IF RAIN WOULD MOVE IN EARLIER...WOULD ALMOST
CERTAINLY LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NAM BUT WITH SOME WRF GUIDANCE VOID
OF MUCH PRECIPITATION EVEN TO 18Z SUNDAY THINK AT LEAST A BLEND IS
WISE. IN TERMS OF THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS PROVIDE FOR GREATEST
LAPSE RATES VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT WHICH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
FORECAST MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING 850MB SUBSIDENCE. 1000-500MB MUCAPE ON THE GFS IS LESS
THAN 200J/KG AND THE SHERBS3 IS LESS THAN ONE...BUT THE NAM IS
NOTICEABLY MORE UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SURFACE-
BASED CONCERNS ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH A SLIGHT INVERSION
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. 0-3KM SHEAR AND HELICITY...AS EXPECTED...
ARE VERY HIGH AS WINDS JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE GREATLY.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING SUNDAY EVENING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS AT LEAST THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT LEAST ELEVATED THUNDER...AND FOR THE HWO WILL
LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF AT LEAST WIND GUSTS TO 40MPH OR A LITTLE
HIGHER AS EVEN SHOWERS IN A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT...
WITH 925MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KT...SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW QUITE
NOTICEABLE WIND GUSTS SIMPLY WITH PRECIPITATION. SPC HAS NOTED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WHERE THUNDER WILL BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST AND WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHFUL OF INSTABILITY
TRENDS IN LATER FORECASTS...AS OTHER PARAMETERS ARE PLENTY HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE HIGHS SUNDAY...STEADY TO RISING IN THE TRIAD
AND MAYBE A DIFFERENCE OF A DEGREE OR TWO ELSEWHERE IN GENERAL. -DJF

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT
AIRMASS IS JUST TOO DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING/LIFT ALOFT TO
SUPPORT POPS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 NW TO MID 70S SE. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE AS CAA
SPREADS WEST TO EAST. -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EMBEDDED AT THE
BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST
REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT JETSTREAK. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. AS SUCH... WILL RAISE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST TO LIKELY
IN THE EAST. NO P-TYPE ISSUES HERE WITH JUST A COLD RAIN FOR CENTRAL
NC. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30 NW TO LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. PRECIP AND CLOUDS PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING EASTWARD WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
CAROLINAS.  ITS WORTH NOTING THAT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS
ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-STARVED... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CONTINUITY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WILL
PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT LOOKS ALMOST CERTAIN HOWEVER THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL DELIVER ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES JUST OFFSHORE.  RETURN FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC MAY BRING SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE TRIAD LATE
TONIGHT.  CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS POINT DUE TO SOME
DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  USING THE SREF AS A GUIDE...MVFR
CEILINGS (~2500 FT) MAY DEVELOP AROUND 09Z AND LAST THROUGH 13-14Z.
THE TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST LESS OF A CHANCE OF
CEILINGS AT KRDU AND EVEN LESS AT KRWI.  AT KFAY...INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS MAY CAUSE MAINLY MVFR VSBYS BY 12Z.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY MID-MORNING...BUT
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY SUNDAY EVENING AS
RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.  A STRONG 50-60KT
LOW LEVEL JET MAY CAUSE SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY AT
KGSO/KINT...WHILE SOME 30-40KT WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN NC WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST...THOUGH LOW CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT EASTERN TERMINALS.
BEYOND MONDAY..ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY
MIDWEEK...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION AND ADVERSE AVIATION
CONDITIONS AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

 &&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/BLS
SHORT TERM...DJF/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BLS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 221510
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1010 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE TODAY BUT STILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
PATCHY CIRRUS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIFT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY.  THE 12Z KGSO RAOB SHOWS
A VERY STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 925MB AND 850MB...AND LIMITED MIXING
WILL KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 49-54
RANGE...COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST. -BLS

OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT IT MAY BE A SLOW
INCREASE AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY IN THE MEAN AT LEAST THROUGH
06Z MONDAY...AND MOISTURE ALOFT DOES NOT SHOW A STRONG INCREASE ON
BUFR SOUNDINGS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
ALSO SHOWS A SLOW AND GRADUAL INCREASE...AND EVEN A FEW AREAS OF
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST EVEN
LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FORECAST ON THE COLD SIDE OF
GUIDANCE AND A FEW OF THESE LOWS MAY EVEN BE TOO HIGH IF LESS CLOUDS
OCCUR FOR LONGER PERIODS IN THE OVERNIGHT. UNDER THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF DEEPER MOISTURE. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE NAM
IS FAIRLY MOIST ALOFT...BUT THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY.
THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS JUST BEGINNING TO APPROACH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AT 12Z SUNDAY...AND THOSE
MODELS ARE ALSO SUBSIDENT AT THAT LAYER AT THAT TIME. DESPITE THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...FOR EXAMPLE...SUFFICIENT WARMING ALOFT PUSHES
THICKNESSES WELL INTO THE LIQUID CATEGORY...AND SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD
BE VERY CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY AND THEN ALMOST CERTAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SPRINKLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE SLOW TO BRING IN GOOD LIFT TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS PARAMETERS...INCLUDING 850MB
THETA-E...K INDICES...GENERAL 850MB LIFT...700MB VORTICITY...AMONG
OTHERS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 18Z TO 05Z. HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST FROM 20Z TO 04Z...AND SOME OF THE WRF GUIDANCE IS EVEN
SLOWER THAN THAT WITH THE ONSET PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH
AND EAST. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY END UP TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ANTICIPATE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGING. EXCEPT IN THE
TRIAD...GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE...AND WILL PLAN TO GO
BETWEEN THERE. IF RAIN WOULD MOVE IN EARLIER...WOULD ALMOST
CERTAINLY LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NAM BUT WITH SOME WRF GUIDANCE VOID
OF MUCH PRECIPITATION EVEN TO 18Z SUNDAY THINK AT LEAST A BLEND IS
WISE. IN TERMS OF THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS PROVIDE FOR GREATEST
LAPSE RATES VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT WHICH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
FORECAST MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING 850MB SUBSIDENCE. 1000-500MB MUCAPE ON THE GFS IS LESS
THAN 200J/KG AND THE SHERBS3 IS LESS THAN ONE...BUT THE NAM IS
NOTICEABLY MORE UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SURFACE-
BASED CONCERNS ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH A SLIGHT INVERSION
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. 0-3KM SHEAR AND HELICITY...AS EXPECTED...
ARE VERY HIGH AS WINDS JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE GREATLY.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING SUNDAY EVENING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS AT LEAST THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT LEAST ELEVATED THUNDER...AND FOR THE HWO WILL
LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF AT LEAST WIND GUSTS TO 40MPH OR A LITTLE
HIGHER AS EVEN SHOWERS IN A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT...
WITH 925MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KT...SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW QUITE
NOTICEABLE WIND GUSTS SIMPLY WITH PRECIPITATION. SPC HAS NOTED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WHERE THUNDER WILL BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST AND WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHFUL OF INSTABILITY
TRENDS IN LATER FORECASTS...AS OTHER PARAMETERS ARE PLENTY HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE HIGHS SUNDAY...STEADY TO RISING IN THE TRIAD
AND MAYBE A DIFFERENCE OF A DEGREE OR TWO ELSEWHERE IN GENERAL. -DJF

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT
AIRMASS IS JUST TOO DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING/LIFT ALOFT TO
SUPPORT POPS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 NW TO MID 70S SE. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE AS CAA
SPREADS WEST TO EAST. -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EMBEDDED AT THE
BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST
REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT JETSTREAK. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. AS SUCH... WILL RAISE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST TO LIKELY
IN THE EAST. NO P-TYPE ISSUES HERE WITH JUST A COLD RAIN FOR CENTRAL
NC. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30 NW TO LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. PRECIP AND CLOUDS PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING EASTWARD WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
CAROLINAS.  ITS WORTH NOTING THAT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS
ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-STARVED... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CONTINUITY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WILL
PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT LOOKS ALMOST CERTAIN HOWEVER THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL DELIVER ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...

FOR THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING GRADUALLY VEER WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 10KT.
SURFACE WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BECOME LIGHT OR CALM AGAIN THIS
EVENING BACKING SLIGHTLY.

BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SUNDAY AND
AS AREAS OF RAIN MOVE IN TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NUMEROUS AREAS OF
SUB-VFR...LIKELY IFR...CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY...CONTINUING AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AND BY
SUNDAY NIGHT REACH OR EVEN EXCEED 50KT BY 2000FT WHICH COULD MAKE
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR A PROBLEM BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND WHILE
SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...A GUSTY
CHARACTER TO THE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUES. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES IN TERMS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO A PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE TRIAD. THE
NAM MODEL RETURNS THESE CONDITIONS MUCH FASTER TUESDAY...WHILE THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER...MORE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/BLS
SHORT TERM...DJF/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF





000
FXUS62 KRAH 221510
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1010 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM SATURDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE TODAY BUT STILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
PATCHY CIRRUS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIFT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY.  THE 12Z KGSO RAOB SHOWS
A VERY STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 925MB AND 850MB...AND LIMITED MIXING
WILL KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 49-54
RANGE...COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST. -BLS

OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT IT MAY BE A SLOW
INCREASE AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY IN THE MEAN AT LEAST THROUGH
06Z MONDAY...AND MOISTURE ALOFT DOES NOT SHOW A STRONG INCREASE ON
BUFR SOUNDINGS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
ALSO SHOWS A SLOW AND GRADUAL INCREASE...AND EVEN A FEW AREAS OF
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST EVEN
LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FORECAST ON THE COLD SIDE OF
GUIDANCE AND A FEW OF THESE LOWS MAY EVEN BE TOO HIGH IF LESS CLOUDS
OCCUR FOR LONGER PERIODS IN THE OVERNIGHT. UNDER THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF DEEPER MOISTURE. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE NAM
IS FAIRLY MOIST ALOFT...BUT THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY.
THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS JUST BEGINNING TO APPROACH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AT 12Z SUNDAY...AND THOSE
MODELS ARE ALSO SUBSIDENT AT THAT LAYER AT THAT TIME. DESPITE THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...FOR EXAMPLE...SUFFICIENT WARMING ALOFT PUSHES
THICKNESSES WELL INTO THE LIQUID CATEGORY...AND SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD
BE VERY CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY AND THEN ALMOST CERTAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SPRINKLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE SLOW TO BRING IN GOOD LIFT TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS PARAMETERS...INCLUDING 850MB
THETA-E...K INDICES...GENERAL 850MB LIFT...700MB VORTICITY...AMONG
OTHERS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 18Z TO 05Z. HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST FROM 20Z TO 04Z...AND SOME OF THE WRF GUIDANCE IS EVEN
SLOWER THAN THAT WITH THE ONSET PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH
AND EAST. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY END UP TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ANTICIPATE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGING. EXCEPT IN THE
TRIAD...GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE...AND WILL PLAN TO GO
BETWEEN THERE. IF RAIN WOULD MOVE IN EARLIER...WOULD ALMOST
CERTAINLY LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NAM BUT WITH SOME WRF GUIDANCE VOID
OF MUCH PRECIPITATION EVEN TO 18Z SUNDAY THINK AT LEAST A BLEND IS
WISE. IN TERMS OF THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS PROVIDE FOR GREATEST
LAPSE RATES VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT WHICH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
FORECAST MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING 850MB SUBSIDENCE. 1000-500MB MUCAPE ON THE GFS IS LESS
THAN 200J/KG AND THE SHERBS3 IS LESS THAN ONE...BUT THE NAM IS
NOTICEABLY MORE UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SURFACE-
BASED CONCERNS ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH A SLIGHT INVERSION
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. 0-3KM SHEAR AND HELICITY...AS EXPECTED...
ARE VERY HIGH AS WINDS JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE GREATLY.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING SUNDAY EVENING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS AT LEAST THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT LEAST ELEVATED THUNDER...AND FOR THE HWO WILL
LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF AT LEAST WIND GUSTS TO 40MPH OR A LITTLE
HIGHER AS EVEN SHOWERS IN A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT...
WITH 925MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KT...SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW QUITE
NOTICEABLE WIND GUSTS SIMPLY WITH PRECIPITATION. SPC HAS NOTED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WHERE THUNDER WILL BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST AND WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHFUL OF INSTABILITY
TRENDS IN LATER FORECASTS...AS OTHER PARAMETERS ARE PLENTY HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE HIGHS SUNDAY...STEADY TO RISING IN THE TRIAD
AND MAYBE A DIFFERENCE OF A DEGREE OR TWO ELSEWHERE IN GENERAL. -DJF

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT
AIRMASS IS JUST TOO DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING/LIFT ALOFT TO
SUPPORT POPS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 NW TO MID 70S SE. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE AS CAA
SPREADS WEST TO EAST. -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EMBEDDED AT THE
BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST
REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT JETSTREAK. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. AS SUCH... WILL RAISE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST TO LIKELY
IN THE EAST. NO P-TYPE ISSUES HERE WITH JUST A COLD RAIN FOR CENTRAL
NC. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30 NW TO LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. PRECIP AND CLOUDS PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING EASTWARD WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
CAROLINAS.  ITS WORTH NOTING THAT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS
ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-STARVED... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CONTINUITY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WILL
PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT LOOKS ALMOST CERTAIN HOWEVER THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL DELIVER ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...

FOR THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING GRADUALLY VEER WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 10KT.
SURFACE WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BECOME LIGHT OR CALM AGAIN THIS
EVENING BACKING SLIGHTLY.

BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SUNDAY AND
AS AREAS OF RAIN MOVE IN TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NUMEROUS AREAS OF
SUB-VFR...LIKELY IFR...CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY...CONTINUING AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AND BY
SUNDAY NIGHT REACH OR EVEN EXCEED 50KT BY 2000FT WHICH COULD MAKE
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR A PROBLEM BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND WHILE
SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...A GUSTY
CHARACTER TO THE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUES. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES IN TERMS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO A PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE TRIAD. THE
NAM MODEL RETURNS THESE CONDITIONS MUCH FASTER TUESDAY...WHILE THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER...MORE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/BLS
SHORT TERM...DJF/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF




000
FXUS62 KRAH 221205
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
705 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE 00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS NOTED VERY
DRY AIR AT 850MB WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WELL ABOVE 40C. THE
TEMPERATURE HAD FALLEN INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT LEAST AT KTDF...AND
WATCHING THE KRDU OVERNIGHT LOW SO FAR THE LOW WAS 25 AS OF THIS
WRITING. FOR TODAY...BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUED DRY AND STABLE.
THE HRRR WRF FORECASTS NOTICEABLE HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...BUT OTHER
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL...AND WHAT ONE WOULD
CONSIDER LOOKING AT THE UPPER-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS AND
BUFR SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST LESS. SATELLITE DATA UPSTREAM SUGGEST LESS
AS WELL...ALONG WITH THE JET LIFTING NORTH. UNDER EXPECTED SUNSHINE
HIGHS SHOULD BE 50 TO 55.

OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT IT MAY BE A SLOW
INCREASE AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY IN THE MEAN AT LEAST THROUGH
06Z MONDAY...AND MOISTURE ALOFT DOES NOT SHOW A STRONG INCREASE ON
BUFR SOUNDINGS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
ALSO SHOWS A SLOW AND GRADUAL INCREASE...AND EVEN A FEW AREAS OF
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST EVEN
LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FORECAST ON THE COLD SIDE OF
GUIDANCE AND A FEW OF THESE LOWS MAY EVEN BE TOO HIGH IF LESS CLOUDS
OCCUR FOR LONGER PERIODS IN THE OVERNIGHT. UNDER THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF DEEPER MOISTURE. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE NAM
IS FAIRLY MOIST ALOFT...BUT THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY.
THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS JUST BEGINNING TO APPROACH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AT 12Z SUNDAY...AND THOSE
MODELS ARE ALSO SUBSIDENT AT THAT LAYER AT THAT TIME. DESPITE THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...FOR EXAMPLE...SUFFICIENT WARMING ALOFT PUSHES
THICKNESSES WELL INTO THE LIQUID CATEGORY...AND SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD
BE VERY CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY AND THEN ALMOST CERTAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SPRINKLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE SLOW TO BRING IN GOOD LIFT TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS PARAMETERS...INCLUDING 850MB
THETA-E...K INDICES...GENERAL 850MB LIFT...700MB VORTICITY...AMONG
OTHERS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 18Z TO 05Z. HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST FROM 20Z TO 04Z...AND SOME OF THE WRF GUIDANCE IS EVEN
SLOWER THAN THAT WITH THE ONSET PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH
AND EAST. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY END UP TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ANTICIPATE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGING. EXCEPT IN THE
TRIAD...GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE...AND WILL PLAN TO GO
BETWEEN THERE. IF RAIN WOULD MOVE IN EARLIER...WOULD ALMOST
CERTAINLY LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NAM BUT WITH SOME WRF GUIDANCE VOID
OF MUCH PRECIPITATION EVEN TO 18Z SUNDAY THINK AT LEAST A BLEND IS
WISE. IN TERMS OF THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS PROVIDE FOR GREATEST
LAPSE RATES VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT WHICH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
FORECAST MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING 850MB SUBSIDENCE. 1000-500MB MUCAPE ON THE GFS IS LESS
THAN 200J/KG AND THE SHERBS3 IS LESS THAN ONE...BUT THE NAM IS
NOTICEABLY MORE UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SURFACE-
BASED CONCERNS ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH A SLIGHT INVERSION
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. 0-3KM SHEAR AND HELICITY...AS EXPECTED...
ARE VERY HIGH AS WINDS JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE GREATLY.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING SUNDAY EVENING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS AT LEAST THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT LEAST ELEVATED THUNDER...AND FOR THE HWO WILL
LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF AT LEAST WIND GUSTS TO 40MPH OR A LITTLE
HIGHER AS EVEN SHOWERS IN A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT...
WITH 925MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KT...SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW QUITE
NOTICEABLE WIND GUSTS SIMPLY WITH PRECIPITATION. SPC HAS NOTED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WHERE THUNDER WILL BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST AND WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHFUL OF INSTABILITY
TRENDS IN LATER FORECASTS...AS OTHER PARAMETERS ARE PLENTY HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE HIGHS SUNDAY...STEADY TO RISING IN THE TRIAD
AND MAYBE A DIFFERENCE OF A DEGREE OR TWO ELSEWHERE IN GENERAL. -DJF

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT
AIRMASS IS JUST TOO DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING/LIFT ALOFT TO
SUPPORT POPS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 NW TO MID 70S SE. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE AS CAA
SPREADS WEST TO EAST. -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EMBEDDED AT THE
BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST
REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT JETSTREAK. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. AS SUCH... WILL RAISE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST TO LIKELY
IN THE EAST. NO P-TYPE ISSUES HERE WITH JUST A COLD RAIN FOR CENTRAL
NC. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30 NW TO LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. PRECIP AND CLOUDS PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING EASTWARD WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
CAROLINAS.  ITS WORTH NOTING THAT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS
ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-STARVED... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CONTINUITY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WILL
PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT LOOKS ALMOST CERTAIN HOWEVER THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL DELIVER ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...

FOR THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING GRADUALLY VEER WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 10KT.
SURFACE WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BECOME LIGHT OR CALM AGAIN THIS
EVENING BACKING SLIGHTLY.

BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SUNDAY AND
AS AREAS OF RAIN MOVE IN TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NUMEROUS AREAS OF
SUB-VFR...LIKELY IFR...CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY...CONTINUING AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AND BY
SUNDAY NIGHT REACH OR EVEN EXCEED 50KT BY 2000FT WHICH COULD MAKE
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR A PROBLEM BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND WHILE
SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...A GUSTY
CHARACTER TO THE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUES. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES IN TERMS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO A PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE TRIAD. THE
NAM MODEL RETURNS THESE CONDITIONS MUCH FASTER TUESDAY...WHILE THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER...MORE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF





000
FXUS62 KRAH 221205
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
705 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE 00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS NOTED VERY
DRY AIR AT 850MB WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WELL ABOVE 40C. THE
TEMPERATURE HAD FALLEN INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT LEAST AT KTDF...AND
WATCHING THE KRDU OVERNIGHT LOW SO FAR THE LOW WAS 25 AS OF THIS
WRITING. FOR TODAY...BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUED DRY AND STABLE.
THE HRRR WRF FORECASTS NOTICEABLE HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...BUT OTHER
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL...AND WHAT ONE WOULD
CONSIDER LOOKING AT THE UPPER-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS AND
BUFR SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST LESS. SATELLITE DATA UPSTREAM SUGGEST LESS
AS WELL...ALONG WITH THE JET LIFTING NORTH. UNDER EXPECTED SUNSHINE
HIGHS SHOULD BE 50 TO 55.

OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT IT MAY BE A SLOW
INCREASE AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY IN THE MEAN AT LEAST THROUGH
06Z MONDAY...AND MOISTURE ALOFT DOES NOT SHOW A STRONG INCREASE ON
BUFR SOUNDINGS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
ALSO SHOWS A SLOW AND GRADUAL INCREASE...AND EVEN A FEW AREAS OF
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST EVEN
LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FORECAST ON THE COLD SIDE OF
GUIDANCE AND A FEW OF THESE LOWS MAY EVEN BE TOO HIGH IF LESS CLOUDS
OCCUR FOR LONGER PERIODS IN THE OVERNIGHT. UNDER THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF DEEPER MOISTURE. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE NAM
IS FAIRLY MOIST ALOFT...BUT THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY.
THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS JUST BEGINNING TO APPROACH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AT 12Z SUNDAY...AND THOSE
MODELS ARE ALSO SUBSIDENT AT THAT LAYER AT THAT TIME. DESPITE THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...FOR EXAMPLE...SUFFICIENT WARMING ALOFT PUSHES
THICKNESSES WELL INTO THE LIQUID CATEGORY...AND SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD
BE VERY CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY AND THEN ALMOST CERTAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SPRINKLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE SLOW TO BRING IN GOOD LIFT TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS PARAMETERS...INCLUDING 850MB
THETA-E...K INDICES...GENERAL 850MB LIFT...700MB VORTICITY...AMONG
OTHERS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 18Z TO 05Z. HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST FROM 20Z TO 04Z...AND SOME OF THE WRF GUIDANCE IS EVEN
SLOWER THAN THAT WITH THE ONSET PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH
AND EAST. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY END UP TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ANTICIPATE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGING. EXCEPT IN THE
TRIAD...GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE...AND WILL PLAN TO GO
BETWEEN THERE. IF RAIN WOULD MOVE IN EARLIER...WOULD ALMOST
CERTAINLY LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NAM BUT WITH SOME WRF GUIDANCE VOID
OF MUCH PRECIPITATION EVEN TO 18Z SUNDAY THINK AT LEAST A BLEND IS
WISE. IN TERMS OF THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS PROVIDE FOR GREATEST
LAPSE RATES VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT WHICH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
FORECAST MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING 850MB SUBSIDENCE. 1000-500MB MUCAPE ON THE GFS IS LESS
THAN 200J/KG AND THE SHERBS3 IS LESS THAN ONE...BUT THE NAM IS
NOTICEABLY MORE UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SURFACE-
BASED CONCERNS ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH A SLIGHT INVERSION
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. 0-3KM SHEAR AND HELICITY...AS EXPECTED...
ARE VERY HIGH AS WINDS JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE GREATLY.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING SUNDAY EVENING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS AT LEAST THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT LEAST ELEVATED THUNDER...AND FOR THE HWO WILL
LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF AT LEAST WIND GUSTS TO 40MPH OR A LITTLE
HIGHER AS EVEN SHOWERS IN A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT...
WITH 925MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KT...SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW QUITE
NOTICEABLE WIND GUSTS SIMPLY WITH PRECIPITATION. SPC HAS NOTED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WHERE THUNDER WILL BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST AND WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHFUL OF INSTABILITY
TRENDS IN LATER FORECASTS...AS OTHER PARAMETERS ARE PLENTY HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE HIGHS SUNDAY...STEADY TO RISING IN THE TRIAD
AND MAYBE A DIFFERENCE OF A DEGREE OR TWO ELSEWHERE IN GENERAL. -DJF

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT
AIRMASS IS JUST TOO DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING/LIFT ALOFT TO
SUPPORT POPS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 NW TO MID 70S SE. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE AS CAA
SPREADS WEST TO EAST. -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EMBEDDED AT THE
BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST
REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT JETSTREAK. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. AS SUCH... WILL RAISE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST TO LIKELY
IN THE EAST. NO P-TYPE ISSUES HERE WITH JUST A COLD RAIN FOR CENTRAL
NC. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30 NW TO LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. PRECIP AND CLOUDS PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING EASTWARD WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
CAROLINAS.  ITS WORTH NOTING THAT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS
ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-STARVED... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CONTINUITY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WILL
PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT LOOKS ALMOST CERTAIN HOWEVER THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL DELIVER ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM SATURDAY...

FOR THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING GRADUALLY VEER WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 10KT.
SURFACE WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BECOME LIGHT OR CALM AGAIN THIS
EVENING BACKING SLIGHTLY.

BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SUNDAY AND
AS AREAS OF RAIN MOVE IN TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NUMEROUS AREAS OF
SUB-VFR...LIKELY IFR...CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY...CONTINUING AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AND BY
SUNDAY NIGHT REACH OR EVEN EXCEED 50KT BY 2000FT WHICH COULD MAKE
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR A PROBLEM BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND WHILE
SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...A GUSTY
CHARACTER TO THE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUES. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES IN TERMS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO A PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE TRIAD. THE
NAM MODEL RETURNS THESE CONDITIONS MUCH FASTER TUESDAY...WHILE THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER...MORE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF




000
FXUS62 KRAH 220800
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE 00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS NOTED VERY
DRY AIR AT 850MB WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WELL ABOVE 40C. THE
TEMPERATURE HAD FALLEN INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT LEAST AT KTDF...AND
WATCHING THE KRDU OVERNIGHT LOW SO FAR THE LOW WAS 25 AS OF THIS
WRITING. FOR TODAY...BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUED DRY AND STABLE.
THE HRRR WRF FORECASTS NOTICEABLE HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...BUT OTHER
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL...AND WHAT ONE WOULD
CONSIDER LOOKING AT THE UPPER-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS AND
BUFR SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST LESS. SATELLITE DATA UPSTREAM SUGGEST LESS
AS WELL...ALONG WITH THE JET LIFTING NORTH. UNDER EXPECTED SUNSHINE
HIGHS SHOULD BE 50 TO 55.

OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT IT MAY BE A SLOW
INCREASE AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY IN THE MEAN AT LEAST THROUGH
06Z MONDAY...AND MOISTURE ALOFT DOES NOT SHOW A STRONG INCREASE ON
BUFR SOUNDINGS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
ALSO SHOWS A SLOW AND GRADUAL INCREASE...AND EVEN A FEW AREAS OF
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST EVEN
LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FORECAST ON THE COLD SIDE OF
GUIDANCE AND A FEW OF THESE LOWS MAY EVEN BE TOO HIGH IF LESS CLOUDS
OCCUR FOR LONGER PERIODS IN THE OVERNIGHT. UNDER THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF DEEPER MOISTURE. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE NAM
IS FAIRLY MOIST ALOFT...BUT THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY.
THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS JUST BEGINNING TO APPROACH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AT 12Z SUNDAY...AND THOSE
MODELS ARE ALSO SUBSIDENT AT THAT LAYER AT THAT TIME. DESPITE THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...FOR EXAMPLE...SUFFICIENT WARMING ALOFT PUSHES
THICKNESSES WELL INTO THE LIQUID CATEGORY...AND SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD
BE VERY CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY AND THEN ALMOST CERTAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SPRINKLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE SLOW TO BRING IN GOOD LIFT TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS PARAMETERS...INCLUDING 850MB
THETA-E...K INDICES...GENERAL 850MB LIFT...700MB VORTICITY...AMONG
OTHERS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 18Z TO 05Z. HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST FROM 20Z TO 04Z...AND SOME OF THE WRF GUIDANCE IS EVEN
SLOWER THAN THAT WITH THE ONSET PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH
AND EAST. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY END UP TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ANTICIPATE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGING. EXCEPT IN THE
TRIAD...GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE...AND WILL PLAN TO GO
BETWEEN THERE. IF RAIN WOULD MOVE IN EARLIER...WOULD ALMOST
CERTAINLY LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NAM BUT WITH SOME WRF GUIDANCE VOID
OF MUCH PRECIPITATION EVEN TO 18Z SUNDAY THINK AT LEAST A BLEND IS
WISE. IN TERMS OF THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS PROVIDE FOR GREATEST
LAPSE RATES VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT WHICH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
FORECAST MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING 850MB SUBSIDENCE. 1000-500MB MUCAPE ON THE GFS IS LESS
THAN 200J/KG AND THE SHERBS3 IS LESS THAN ONE...BUT THE NAM IS
NOTICEABLY MORE UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SURFACE-
BASED CONCERNS ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH A SLIGHT INVERSION
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. 0-3KM SHEAR AND HELICITY...AS EXPECTED...
ARE VERY HIGH AS WINDS JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE GREATLY.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING SUNDAY EVENING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS AT LEAST THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT LEAST ELEVATED THUNDER...AND FOR THE HWO WILL
LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF AT LEAST WIND GUSTS TO 40MPH OR A LITTLE
HIGHER AS EVEN SHOWERS IN A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT...
WITH 925MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KT...SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW QUITE
NOTICEABLE WIND GUSTS SIMPLY WITH PRECIPITATION. SPC HAS NOTED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WHERE THUNDER WILL BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST AND WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHFUL OF INSTABILITY
TRENDS IN LATER FORECASTS...AS OTHER PARAMETERS ARE PLENTY HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE HIGHS SUNDAY...STEADY TO RISING IN THE TRIAD
AND MAYBE A DIFFERENCE OF A DEGREE OR TWO ELSEWHERE IN GENERAL. -DJF

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT
AIRMASS IS JUST TOO DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING/LIFT ALOFT TO
SUPPORT POPS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 NW TO MID 70S SE. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE AS CAA
SPREADS WEST TO EAST. -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EMBEDDED AT THE
BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST
REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT JETSTREAK. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. AS SUCH... WILL RAISE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST TO LIKELY
IN THE EAST. NO P-TYPE ISSUES HERE WITH JUST A COLD RAIN FOR CENTRAL
NC. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30 NW TO LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. PRECIP AND CLOUDS PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING EASTWARD WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
CAROLINAS.  ITS WORTH NOTING THAT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS
ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-STARVED... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CONTINUITY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WILL
PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT LOOKS ALMOST CERTAIN HOWEVER THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL DELIVER ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM SATURDAY...

FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING GRADUALLY VEER WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 10KT.
SURFACE WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BECOME LIGHT OR CALM AGAIN THIS
EVENING BACKING SLIGHTLY.

BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SUNDAY AND
AS AREAS OF RAIN MOVE IN TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NUMEROUS AREAS OF
SUB-VFR...LIKELY IFR...CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY CONTINUING
AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE WILL ALSO
INCREASE SUNDAY AND REACH OR EVEN EXCEED 50KT BY 2000FT WHICH COULD
MAKE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR A PROBLEM BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...A
GUSTY CHARACTER TO THE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUES. AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES IN TERMS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO A PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE TRIAD. THE
NAM MODEL RETURNS THESE CONDITIONS MUCH FASTER TUESDAY...WHILE THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER...MORE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF




000
FXUS62 KRAH 220800
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE 00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS NOTED VERY
DRY AIR AT 850MB WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WELL ABOVE 40C. THE
TEMPERATURE HAD FALLEN INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT LEAST AT KTDF...AND
WATCHING THE KRDU OVERNIGHT LOW SO FAR THE LOW WAS 25 AS OF THIS
WRITING. FOR TODAY...BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUED DRY AND STABLE.
THE HRRR WRF FORECASTS NOTICEABLE HIGH CLOUDS TODAY...BUT OTHER
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL...AND WHAT ONE WOULD
CONSIDER LOOKING AT THE UPPER-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS AND
BUFR SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST LESS. SATELLITE DATA UPSTREAM SUGGEST LESS
AS WELL...ALONG WITH THE JET LIFTING NORTH. UNDER EXPECTED SUNSHINE
HIGHS SHOULD BE 50 TO 55.

OVERNIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT IT MAY BE A SLOW
INCREASE AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY IN THE MEAN AT LEAST THROUGH
06Z MONDAY...AND MOISTURE ALOFT DOES NOT SHOW A STRONG INCREASE ON
BUFR SOUNDINGS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
ALSO SHOWS A SLOW AND GRADUAL INCREASE...AND EVEN A FEW AREAS OF
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST EVEN
LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FORECAST ON THE COLD SIDE OF
GUIDANCE AND A FEW OF THESE LOWS MAY EVEN BE TOO HIGH IF LESS CLOUDS
OCCUR FOR LONGER PERIODS IN THE OVERNIGHT. UNDER THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE...WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER WITH THE APPROACH OF DEEPER MOISTURE. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE NAM
IS FAIRLY MOIST ALOFT...BUT THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINS VERY DRY.
THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS JUST BEGINNING TO APPROACH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AT 12Z SUNDAY...AND THOSE
MODELS ARE ALSO SUBSIDENT AT THAT LAYER AT THAT TIME. DESPITE THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...FOR EXAMPLE...SUFFICIENT WARMING ALOFT PUSHES
THICKNESSES WELL INTO THE LIQUID CATEGORY...AND SURFACE WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR...IT WOULD
BE VERY CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY AND THEN ALMOST CERTAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SPRINKLES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE SLOW TO BRING IN GOOD LIFT TO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS PARAMETERS...INCLUDING 850MB
THETA-E...K INDICES...GENERAL 850MB LIFT...700MB VORTICITY...AMONG
OTHERS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM
ABOUT 18Z TO 05Z. HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST FROM 20Z TO 04Z...AND SOME OF THE WRF GUIDANCE IS EVEN
SLOWER THAN THAT WITH THE ONSET PARTICULARLY FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTH
AND EAST. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY END UP TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ANTICIPATE HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RAIN DURING
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDOW.

CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET OF
RAIN MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGING. EXCEPT IN THE
TRIAD...GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE...AND WILL PLAN TO GO
BETWEEN THERE. IF RAIN WOULD MOVE IN EARLIER...WOULD ALMOST
CERTAINLY LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NAM BUT WITH SOME WRF GUIDANCE VOID
OF MUCH PRECIPITATION EVEN TO 18Z SUNDAY THINK AT LEAST A BLEND IS
WISE. IN TERMS OF THUNDER...BUFR SOUNDINGS PROVIDE FOR GREATEST
LAPSE RATES VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF A DRY SLOT WHICH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
FORECAST MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT WITH
INCREASING 850MB SUBSIDENCE. 1000-500MB MUCAPE ON THE GFS IS LESS
THAN 200J/KG AND THE SHERBS3 IS LESS THAN ONE...BUT THE NAM IS
NOTICEABLY MORE UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE SURFACE-
BASED CONCERNS ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH A SLIGHT INVERSION
JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. 0-3KM SHEAR AND HELICITY...AS EXPECTED...
ARE VERY HIGH AS WINDS JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE GREATLY.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING SUNDAY EVENING TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AS AT LEAST THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AT LEAST ELEVATED THUNDER...AND FOR THE HWO WILL
LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF AT LEAST WIND GUSTS TO 40MPH OR A LITTLE
HIGHER AS EVEN SHOWERS IN A RAPIDLY TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT...
WITH 925MB WINDS APPROACHING 50KT...SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW QUITE
NOTICEABLE WIND GUSTS SIMPLY WITH PRECIPITATION. SPC HAS NOTED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WHERE THUNDER WILL BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST AND WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE WATCHFUL OF INSTABILITY
TRENDS IN LATER FORECASTS...AS OTHER PARAMETERS ARE PLENTY HIGH
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT NOT
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE HIGHS SUNDAY...STEADY TO RISING IN THE TRIAD
AND MAYBE A DIFFERENCE OF A DEGREE OR TWO ELSEWHERE IN GENERAL. -DJF

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT
AIRMASS IS JUST TOO DRY WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING/LIFT ALOFT TO
SUPPORT POPS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 NW TO MID 70S SE. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE AS CAA
SPREADS WEST TO EAST. -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH EMBEDDED AT THE
BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF COAST
REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER
A DRY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS ATTENDANT TO OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE RETREATS
INLAND IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-150KT JETSTREAK. BOTH THE GFS AND
EC CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. AS SUCH... WILL RAISE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST TO LIKELY
IN THE EAST. NO P-TYPE ISSUES HERE WITH JUST A COLD RAIN FOR CENTRAL
NC. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 30 NW TO LOWER 40S SE. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 40S. PRECIP AND CLOUDS PULL OUT WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING EASTWARD WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A MID-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC OR
CAROLINAS.  ITS WORTH NOTING THAT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS LIKE THIS
ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-STARVED... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
GIVEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CONTINUITY AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WILL
PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT LOOKS ALMOST CERTAIN HOWEVER THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL DELIVER ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM SATURDAY...

FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING GRADUALLY VEER WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 10KT.
SURFACE WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BECOME LIGHT OR CALM AGAIN THIS
EVENING BACKING SLIGHTLY.

BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SUNDAY AND
AS AREAS OF RAIN MOVE IN TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NUMEROUS AREAS OF
SUB-VFR...LIKELY IFR...CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY CONTINUING
AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE WILL ALSO
INCREASE SUNDAY AND REACH OR EVEN EXCEED 50KT BY 2000FT WHICH COULD
MAKE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR A PROBLEM BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...A
GUSTY CHARACTER TO THE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUES. AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES IN TERMS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO A PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE TRIAD. THE
NAM MODEL RETURNS THESE CONDITIONS MUCH FASTER TUESDAY...WHILE THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER...MORE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF





000
FXUS62 KRAH 220551
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1250 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM FRIDAY...

THE CENTER OF A STRONG (1035 MB) COLD HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
VIRGINIA THIS EVENING. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
DIRECTLY OVER NC BY 12Z/SAT. VERY DRY AND CLEAR AIR WAS IN PLACE
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 10-15 RANGE. WINDS HAD ALREADY DIED OFF TO
NIL OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES... AND WILL DO SO BY
MIDNIGHT OR SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER. WITH 900 PM READINGS ALREADY IN THE
LOWER 20S AT ROXBORO RANGING INTO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN... EXPECT LOWS BY DAYBREAK TO FALL TO BETWEEN 15-20
NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL RISE APPROX 30 METERS OR SO FROM TODAY...
YIELDING HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 DEGREES OR SO HIGHER...LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 5 KTS OR SO AND OUT OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL FLATTEN OUT AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE NC
COAST...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY BY 12Z
SUNDAY. WITH THE MODELS HAVING SLOWED THE APPROACHING SYSTEM DOWN...
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ON SATURDAY WILL STICK
AROUND OVERNIGHT AND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SO WILL THE
CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WITH THE
INFLUX OF WARM MOIST AIR OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
30S TO OCCUR WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY
INCREASING A FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FROM RECENT
CYCLES...WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE BEING A FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM S/W TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM TX IN THE MORNING NE TO THE OH
VALLEY BY EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS VIGOROUS
SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AS
NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT INCREASING FROM AROUND 1/2
INCH AT DAWN TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES (HIGHEST EAST) BY 11 PM PRIOR TO
TROUGH PASSAGE. WITH INCREASING SW FLOW ABOVE A LINGERING SFC
RIDGE...RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE THICKENING/LOWERING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. AS FOR TIMING THE ONSET OF LIGHT RAIN...RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BEGIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...THE TRIANGLE REGION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN OUR
NORTHERN/VA-BORDER ZONES BY SUNSET. TEMPS WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S
DURING THE DAYTIME...REMAINING COOLEST NW.

DURING THE EVENING SUNDAY...RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...A SFC WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA SHORTY AFTER 00Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE WARMEST BL AIR
PROGGED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...EAST OF THE
WEDGE FRONT...THE BEST INSTABILITY AND BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
RIGHT NOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF US-1. THIS BEARS CLOSE
WATCHING THOUGH...AS BULK SHEAR VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 50KT AND
FORMIDABLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT WOULD
PORTEND SEVERE CONVECTION IF THERE WAS ADEQUATE INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...THE MID-LEVEL VORT AXIS LINKED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN ITS WAKE AND THUS
RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E.  RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
REGARDING TEMPS...WITH AN EVENING WARM FRONT PASSAGE...HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS THEN STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S...OR PERHAPS EVEN RISING A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. WITH THE BULK OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINING TO OUR
EAST...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY AND WARM
PREFRONTAL TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE
IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY EVENING OR AT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY GRADUALLY APPROACHES...AND SW FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH KEEPS THIS FRONT HELD UP ALONG THE COAST. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EAST...A SFC WAVE IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE ON TUESDAY...AND MODELS HAVE
RECENTLY TRENDED TOWARD A SOLUTION THAT ROTATES SOME MOISTURE AND
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT COOL RAIN BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WILL BE COOLER WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THANKSGIVING...YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE EAST.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED DEEPER WITH THIS SHORT WAVE...AND
EVEN SUGGEST A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINAS. WHILE THIS PATTERN MAY RAISE SOME CONCERN
...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THIS IS 6 DAYS AWAYS AND SOLUTIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CHANGE...AND SYSTEMS LIKE THIS THAT APPROACH US FROM NW IN
THIS FASHION ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-LIMITED...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR AREA.
WORTH WATCHING THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM SATURDAY...

FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING GRADUALLY VEER WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 10KT.
SURFACE WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BECOME LIGHT OR CALM AGAIN THIS
EVENING BACKING SLIGHTLY.

BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SUNDAY AND
AS AREAS OF RAIN MOVE IN TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NUMEROUS AREAS OF
SUB-VFR...LIKELY IFR...CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY CONTINUING
AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE WILL ALSO
INCREASE SUNDAY AND REACH OR EVEN EXCEED 50KT BY 2000FT WHICH COULD
MAKE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR A PROBLEM BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...A
GUSTY CHARACTER TO THE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUES. AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES IN TERMS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO A PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE TRIAD. THE
NAM MODEL RETURNS THESE CONDITIONS MUCH FASTER TUESDAY...WHILE THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER...MORE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 220551
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1250 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA MONDAY...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM FRIDAY...

THE CENTER OF A STRONG (1035 MB) COLD HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
VIRGINIA THIS EVENING. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
DIRECTLY OVER NC BY 12Z/SAT. VERY DRY AND CLEAR AIR WAS IN PLACE
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 10-15 RANGE. WINDS HAD ALREADY DIED OFF TO
NIL OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES... AND WILL DO SO BY
MIDNIGHT OR SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER. WITH 900 PM READINGS ALREADY IN THE
LOWER 20S AT ROXBORO RANGING INTO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN... EXPECT LOWS BY DAYBREAK TO FALL TO BETWEEN 15-20
NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL RISE APPROX 30 METERS OR SO FROM TODAY...
YIELDING HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 DEGREES OR SO HIGHER...LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 5 KTS OR SO AND OUT OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL FLATTEN OUT AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE NC
COAST...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY BY 12Z
SUNDAY. WITH THE MODELS HAVING SLOWED THE APPROACHING SYSTEM DOWN...
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ON SATURDAY WILL STICK
AROUND OVERNIGHT AND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SO WILL THE
CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WITH THE
INFLUX OF WARM MOIST AIR OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
30S TO OCCUR WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY
INCREASING A FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FROM RECENT
CYCLES...WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE BEING A FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM S/W TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM TX IN THE MORNING NE TO THE OH
VALLEY BY EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS VIGOROUS
SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AS
NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT INCREASING FROM AROUND 1/2
INCH AT DAWN TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES (HIGHEST EAST) BY 11 PM PRIOR TO
TROUGH PASSAGE. WITH INCREASING SW FLOW ABOVE A LINGERING SFC
RIDGE...RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE THICKENING/LOWERING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. AS FOR TIMING THE ONSET OF LIGHT RAIN...RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BEGIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...THE TRIANGLE REGION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN OUR
NORTHERN/VA-BORDER ZONES BY SUNSET. TEMPS WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S
DURING THE DAYTIME...REMAINING COOLEST NW.

DURING THE EVENING SUNDAY...RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...A SFC WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA SHORTY AFTER 00Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE WARMEST BL AIR
PROGGED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...EAST OF THE
WEDGE FRONT...THE BEST INSTABILITY AND BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
RIGHT NOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF US-1. THIS BEARS CLOSE
WATCHING THOUGH...AS BULK SHEAR VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 50KT AND
FORMIDABLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT WOULD
PORTEND SEVERE CONVECTION IF THERE WAS ADEQUATE INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...THE MID-LEVEL VORT AXIS LINKED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN ITS WAKE AND THUS
RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E.  RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
REGARDING TEMPS...WITH AN EVENING WARM FRONT PASSAGE...HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS THEN STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S...OR PERHAPS EVEN RISING A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. WITH THE BULK OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINING TO OUR
EAST...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY AND WARM
PREFRONTAL TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE
IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY EVENING OR AT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY GRADUALLY APPROACHES...AND SW FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH KEEPS THIS FRONT HELD UP ALONG THE COAST. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EAST...A SFC WAVE IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE ON TUESDAY...AND MODELS HAVE
RECENTLY TRENDED TOWARD A SOLUTION THAT ROTATES SOME MOISTURE AND
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT COOL RAIN BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WILL BE COOLER WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THANKSGIVING...YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE EAST.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED DEEPER WITH THIS SHORT WAVE...AND
EVEN SUGGEST A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINAS. WHILE THIS PATTERN MAY RAISE SOME CONCERN
...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THIS IS 6 DAYS AWAYS AND SOLUTIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CHANGE...AND SYSTEMS LIKE THIS THAT APPROACH US FROM NW IN
THIS FASHION ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-LIMITED...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR AREA.
WORTH WATCHING THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM SATURDAY...

FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LIGHT WINDS
THIS MORNING GRADUALLY VEER WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SUSTAINED VALUES EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 10KT.
SURFACE WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE BECOME LIGHT OR CALM AGAIN THIS
EVENING BACKING SLIGHTLY.

BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SUNDAY AND
AS AREAS OF RAIN MOVE IN TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA NUMEROUS AREAS OF
SUB-VFR...LIKELY IFR...CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY CONTINUING
AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE WILL ALSO
INCREASE SUNDAY AND REACH OR EVEN EXCEED 50KT BY 2000FT WHICH COULD
MAKE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR A PROBLEM BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...A
GUSTY CHARACTER TO THE SURFACE WINDS CONTINUES. AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES IN TERMS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO A PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE TRIAD. THE
NAM MODEL RETURNS THESE CONDITIONS MUCH FASTER TUESDAY...WHILE THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER...MORE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 220246
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
940 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TO THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT... AND NORTH MONDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE STATE LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. SEE DAILY RECORDS FOR 22 NOVEMBER IN THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM FRIDAY...

THE CENTER OF A STRONG (1035 MB) COLD HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
VIRGINIA THIS EVENING. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
DIRECTLY OVER NC BY 12Z/SAT. VERY DRY AND CLEAR AIR WAS IN PLACE
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 10-15 RANGE. WINDS HAD ALREADY DIED OFF TO
NIL OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES... AND WILL DO SO BY
MIDNIGHT OR SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER. WITH 900 PM READINGS ALREADY IN THE
LOWER 20S AT ROXBORO RANGING INTO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN... EXPECT LOWS BY DAYBREAK TO FALL TO BETWEEN 15-20
NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL RISE APPROX 30 METERS OR SO FROM TODAY...
YIELDING HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 DEGREES OR SO HIGHER...LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 5 KTS OR SO AND OUT OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL FLATTEN OUT AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE NC
COAST...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY BY 12Z
SUNDAY. WITH THE MODELS HAVING SLOWED THE APPROACHING SYSTEM DOWN...
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ON SATURDAY WILL STICK
AROUND OVERNIGHT AND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SO WILL THE
CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WITH THE
INFLUX OF WARM MOIST AIR OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
30S TO OCCUR WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY
INCREASING A FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FROM RECENT
CYCLES...WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE BEING A FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM S/W TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM TX IN THE MORNING NE TO THE OH
VALLEY BY EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS VIGOROUS
SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AS
NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT INCREASING FROM AROUND 1/2
INCH AT DAWN TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES (HIGHEST EAST) BY 11 PM PRIOR TO
TROUGH PASSAGE. WITH INCREASING SW FLOW ABOVE A LINGERING SFC
RIDGE...RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE THICKENING/LOWERING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. AS FOR TIMING THE ONSET OF LIGHT RAIN...RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BEGIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...THE TRIANGLE REGION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN OUR
NORTHERN/VA-BORDER ZONES BY SUNSET. TEMPS WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S
DURING THE DAYTIME...REMAINING COOLEST NW.

DURING THE EVENING SUNDAY...RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...A SFC WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA SHORTY AFTER 00Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE WARMEST BL AIR
PROGGED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...EAST OF THE
WEDGE FRONT...THE BEST INSTABILITY AND BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
RIGHT NOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF US-1. THIS BEARS CLOSE
WATCHING THOUGH...AS BULK SHEAR VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 50KT AND
FORMIDABLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT WOULD
PORTEND SEVERE CONVECTION IF THERE WAS ADEQUATE INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...THE MID-LEVEL VORT AXIS LINKED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN ITS WAKE AND THUS
RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E.  RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
REGARDING TEMPS...WITH AN EVENING WARM FRONT PASSAGE...HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS THEN STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S...OR PERHAPS EVEN RISING A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. WITH THE BULK OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINING TO OUR
EAST...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY AND WARM
PREFRONTAL TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE
IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY EVENING OR AT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY GRADUALLY APPROACHES...AND SW FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH KEEPS THIS FRONT HELD UP ALONG THE COAST. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EAST...A SFC WAVE IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE ON TUESDAY...AND MODELS HAVE
RECENTLY TRENDED TOWARD A SOLUTION THAT ROTATES SOME MOISTURE AND
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT COOL RAIN BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WILL BE COOLER WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THANKSGIVING...YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE EAST.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED DEEPER WITH THIS SHORT WAVE...AND
EVEN SUGGEST A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINAS. WHILE THIS PATTERN MAY RAISE SOME CONCERN
...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THIS IS 6 DAYS AWAYS AND SOLUTIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CHANGE...AND SYSTEMS LIKE THIS THAT APPROACH US FROM NW IN
THIS FASHION ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-LIMITED...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR AREA.
WORTH WATCHING THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM FRIDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD (HIGH CONFIDENCE). HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL
SLOWLY SINK SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY... YIELDING A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT... BECOMING LIGHT (~5-7 KTS OR LESS) OUT OF
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH ONLY SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY... AS A BAND OF PRECIP MOVES TROUGH THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
THE COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT AND POSSIBLY SENDING SOME RAIN AND SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS BACK ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...BSD
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 220246
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
940 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TO THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT... AND NORTH MONDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE STATE LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. SEE DAILY RECORDS FOR 22 NOVEMBER IN THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM FRIDAY...

THE CENTER OF A STRONG (1035 MB) COLD HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER
VIRGINIA THIS EVENING. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
DIRECTLY OVER NC BY 12Z/SAT. VERY DRY AND CLEAR AIR WAS IN PLACE
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 10-15 RANGE. WINDS HAD ALREADY DIED OFF TO
NIL OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES... AND WILL DO SO BY
MIDNIGHT OR SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER. WITH 900 PM READINGS ALREADY IN THE
LOWER 20S AT ROXBORO RANGING INTO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN... EXPECT LOWS BY DAYBREAK TO FALL TO BETWEEN 15-20
NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL RISE APPROX 30 METERS OR SO FROM TODAY...
YIELDING HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 DEGREES OR SO HIGHER...LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 5 KTS OR SO AND OUT OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL FLATTEN OUT AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE NC
COAST...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY BY 12Z
SUNDAY. WITH THE MODELS HAVING SLOWED THE APPROACHING SYSTEM DOWN...
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ON SATURDAY WILL STICK
AROUND OVERNIGHT AND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SO WILL THE
CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WITH THE
INFLUX OF WARM MOIST AIR OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
30S TO OCCUR WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY
INCREASING A FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FROM RECENT
CYCLES...WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE BEING A FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM S/W TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM TX IN THE MORNING NE TO THE OH
VALLEY BY EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS VIGOROUS
SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AS
NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT INCREASING FROM AROUND 1/2
INCH AT DAWN TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES (HIGHEST EAST) BY 11 PM PRIOR TO
TROUGH PASSAGE. WITH INCREASING SW FLOW ABOVE A LINGERING SFC
RIDGE...RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE THICKENING/LOWERING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. AS FOR TIMING THE ONSET OF LIGHT RAIN...RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BEGIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...THE TRIANGLE REGION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN OUR
NORTHERN/VA-BORDER ZONES BY SUNSET. TEMPS WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S
DURING THE DAYTIME...REMAINING COOLEST NW.

DURING THE EVENING SUNDAY...RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...A SFC WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA SHORTY AFTER 00Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE WARMEST BL AIR
PROGGED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...EAST OF THE
WEDGE FRONT...THE BEST INSTABILITY AND BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
RIGHT NOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF US-1. THIS BEARS CLOSE
WATCHING THOUGH...AS BULK SHEAR VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 50KT AND
FORMIDABLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT WOULD
PORTEND SEVERE CONVECTION IF THERE WAS ADEQUATE INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...THE MID-LEVEL VORT AXIS LINKED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN ITS WAKE AND THUS
RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E.  RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
REGARDING TEMPS...WITH AN EVENING WARM FRONT PASSAGE...HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS THEN STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S...OR PERHAPS EVEN RISING A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. WITH THE BULK OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINING TO OUR
EAST...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY AND WARM
PREFRONTAL TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE
IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY EVENING OR AT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY GRADUALLY APPROACHES...AND SW FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH KEEPS THIS FRONT HELD UP ALONG THE COAST. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EAST...A SFC WAVE IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE ON TUESDAY...AND MODELS HAVE
RECENTLY TRENDED TOWARD A SOLUTION THAT ROTATES SOME MOISTURE AND
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT COOL RAIN BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WILL BE COOLER WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THANKSGIVING...YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE EAST.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED DEEPER WITH THIS SHORT WAVE...AND
EVEN SUGGEST A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINAS. WHILE THIS PATTERN MAY RAISE SOME CONCERN
...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THIS IS 6 DAYS AWAYS AND SOLUTIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CHANGE...AND SYSTEMS LIKE THIS THAT APPROACH US FROM NW IN
THIS FASHION ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-LIMITED...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR AREA.
WORTH WATCHING THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM FRIDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD (HIGH CONFIDENCE). HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL
SLOWLY SINK SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY... YIELDING A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT... BECOMING LIGHT (~5-7 KTS OR LESS) OUT OF
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH ONLY SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY... AS A BAND OF PRECIP MOVES TROUGH THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
THE COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT AND POSSIBLY SENDING SOME RAIN AND SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS BACK ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PWB
NEAR TERM...PWB
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...BSD
CLIMATE...RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 220010
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
709 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER NC TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE WINDS SHOULD RELAX SOME AND VEER OVERNIGHT AS
THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT
LOWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST...AROUND 20 DEGREES...AND
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL RISE APPROX 30 METERS OR SO FROM TODAY...
YIELDING HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 DEGREES OR SO HIGHER...LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 5 KTS OR SO AND OUT OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL FLATTEN OUT AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE NC
COAST...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY BY 12Z
SUNDAY. WITH THE MODELS HAVING SLOWED THE APPROACHING SYSTEM DOWN...
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ON SATURDAY WILL STICK
AROUND OVERNIGHT AND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SO WILL THE
CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WITH THE
INFLUX OF WARM MOIST AIR OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
30S TO OCCUR WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY
INCREASING A FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FROM RECENT
CYCLES...WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE BEING A FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM S/W TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM TX IN THE MORNING NE TO THE OH
VALLEY BY EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS VIGOROUS
SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AS
NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT INCREASING FROM AROUND 1/2
INCH AT DAWN TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES (HIGHEST EAST) BY 11 PM PRIOR TO
TROUGH PASSAGE. WITH INCREASING SW FLOW ABOVE A LINGERING SFC
RIDGE...RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE THICKENING/LOWERING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. AS FOR TIMING THE ONSET OF LIGHT RAIN...RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BEGIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...THE TRIANGLE REGION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN OUR
NORTHERN/VA-BORDER ZONES BY SUNSET. TEMPS WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S
DURING THE DAYTIME...REMAINING COOLEST NW.

DURING THE EVENING SUNDAY...RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...A SFC WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA SHORTY AFTER 00Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE WARMEST BL AIR
PROGGED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...EAST OF THE
WEDGE FRONT...THE BEST INSTABILITY AND BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
RIGHT NOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF US-1. THIS BEARS CLOSE
WATCHING THOUGH...AS BULK SHEAR VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 50KT AND
FORMIDABLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT WOULD
PORTEND SEVERE CONVECTION IF THERE WAS ADEQUATE INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...THE MID-LEVEL VORT AXIS LINKED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN ITS WAKE AND THUS
RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E.  RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
REGARDING TEMPS...WITH AN EVENING WARM FRONT PASSAGE...HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS THEN STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S...OR PERHAPS EVEN RISING A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. WITH THE BULK OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINING TO OUR
EAST...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY AND WARM
PREFRONTAL TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE
IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY EVENING OR AT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY GRADUALLY APPROACHES...AND SW FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH KEEPS THIS FRONT HELD UP ALONG THE COAST. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EAST...A SFC WAVE IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE ON TUESDAY...AND MODELS HAVE
RECENTLY TRENDED TOWARD A SOLUTION THAT ROTATES SOME MOISTURE AND
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT COOL RAIN BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WILL BE COOLER WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THANKSGIVING...YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE EAST.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED DEEPER WITH THIS SHORT WAVE...AND
EVEN SUGGEST A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINAS. WHILE THIS PATTERN MAY RAISE SOME CONCERN
...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THIS IS 6 DAYS AWAYS AND SOLUTIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CHANGE...AND SYSTEMS LIKE THIS THAT APPROACH US FROM NW IN
THIS FASHION ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-LIMITED...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR AREA.
WORTH WATCHING THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM FRIDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD (HIGH CONFIDENCE). HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL
SLOWLY SINK SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY... YIELDING A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT... BECOMING LIGHT (~5-7 KTS OR LESS) OUT OF
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH ONLY SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY... AS A BAND OF PRECIP MOVES TROUGH THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
THE COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT AND POSSIBLY SENDING SOME RAIN AND SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS BACK ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NP
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...BSD
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 220010
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
709 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER NC TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE WINDS SHOULD RELAX SOME AND VEER OVERNIGHT AS
THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT
LOWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST...AROUND 20 DEGREES...AND
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL RISE APPROX 30 METERS OR SO FROM TODAY...
YIELDING HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 DEGREES OR SO HIGHER...LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 5 KTS OR SO AND OUT OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL FLATTEN OUT AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE NC
COAST...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY BY 12Z
SUNDAY. WITH THE MODELS HAVING SLOWED THE APPROACHING SYSTEM DOWN...
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ON SATURDAY WILL STICK
AROUND OVERNIGHT AND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SO WILL THE
CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WITH THE
INFLUX OF WARM MOIST AIR OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
30S TO OCCUR WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY
INCREASING A FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FROM RECENT
CYCLES...WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE BEING A FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM S/W TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM TX IN THE MORNING NE TO THE OH
VALLEY BY EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS VIGOROUS
SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AS
NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT INCREASING FROM AROUND 1/2
INCH AT DAWN TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES (HIGHEST EAST) BY 11 PM PRIOR TO
TROUGH PASSAGE. WITH INCREASING SW FLOW ABOVE A LINGERING SFC
RIDGE...RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE THICKENING/LOWERING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. AS FOR TIMING THE ONSET OF LIGHT RAIN...RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BEGIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...THE TRIANGLE REGION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN OUR
NORTHERN/VA-BORDER ZONES BY SUNSET. TEMPS WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S
DURING THE DAYTIME...REMAINING COOLEST NW.

DURING THE EVENING SUNDAY...RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...A SFC WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA SHORTY AFTER 00Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE WARMEST BL AIR
PROGGED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...EAST OF THE
WEDGE FRONT...THE BEST INSTABILITY AND BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
RIGHT NOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF US-1. THIS BEARS CLOSE
WATCHING THOUGH...AS BULK SHEAR VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 50KT AND
FORMIDABLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT WOULD
PORTEND SEVERE CONVECTION IF THERE WAS ADEQUATE INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...THE MID-LEVEL VORT AXIS LINKED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN ITS WAKE AND THUS
RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E.  RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
REGARDING TEMPS...WITH AN EVENING WARM FRONT PASSAGE...HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS THEN STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S...OR PERHAPS EVEN RISING A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. WITH THE BULK OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINING TO OUR
EAST...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY AND WARM
PREFRONTAL TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE
IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY EVENING OR AT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY GRADUALLY APPROACHES...AND SW FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH KEEPS THIS FRONT HELD UP ALONG THE COAST. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EAST...A SFC WAVE IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE ON TUESDAY...AND MODELS HAVE
RECENTLY TRENDED TOWARD A SOLUTION THAT ROTATES SOME MOISTURE AND
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT COOL RAIN BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WILL BE COOLER WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THANKSGIVING...YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE EAST.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED DEEPER WITH THIS SHORT WAVE...AND
EVEN SUGGEST A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINAS. WHILE THIS PATTERN MAY RAISE SOME CONCERN
...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THIS IS 6 DAYS AWAYS AND SOLUTIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CHANGE...AND SYSTEMS LIKE THIS THAT APPROACH US FROM NW IN
THIS FASHION ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-LIMITED...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR AREA.
WORTH WATCHING THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM FRIDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD (HIGH CONFIDENCE). HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL
SLOWLY SINK SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY... YIELDING A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT... BECOMING LIGHT (~5-7 KTS OR LESS) OUT OF
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH ONLY SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME.

LOOKING AHEAD: ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY... AS A BAND OF PRECIP MOVES TROUGH THE AREA IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
THE COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT AND POSSIBLY SENDING SOME RAIN AND SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS BACK ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NP
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...BSD
CLIMATE...RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 211934
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL SPREAD MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER NC TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE WINDS SHOULD RELAX SOME AND VEER OVERNIGHT AS
THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT
LOWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST...AROUND 20 DEGREES...AND
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL RISE APPROX 30 METERS OR SO FROM TODAY...
YIELDING HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 DEGREES OR SO HIGHER...LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 5 KTS OR SO AND OUT OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL FLATTEN OUT AND SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE NC
COAST...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY BY 12Z
SUNDAY. WITH THE MODELS HAVING SLOWED THE APPROACHING SYSTEM DOWN...
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ON SATURDAY WILL STICK
AROUND OVERNIGHT AND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SO WILL THE
CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WITH THE
INFLUX OF WARM MOIST AIR OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
30S TO OCCUR WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY
INCREASING A FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

FOR DAYTIME SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING FROM RECENT
CYCLES...WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE BEING A FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM S/W TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM TX IN THE MORNING NE TO THE OH
VALLEY BY EVENING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS VIGOROUS
SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AS
NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWAT INCREASING FROM AROUND 1/2
INCH AT DAWN TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES (HIGHEST EAST) BY 11 PM PRIOR TO
TROUGH PASSAGE. WITH INCREASING SW FLOW ABOVE A LINGERING SFC
RIDGE...RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE THICKENING/LOWERING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. AS FOR TIMING THE ONSET OF LIGHT RAIN...RIGHT NOW LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BEGIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...THE TRIANGLE REGION BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THEN OUR
NORTHERN/VA-BORDER ZONES BY SUNSET. TEMPS WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S
DURING THE DAYTIME...REMAINING COOLEST NW.

DURING THE EVENING SUNDAY...RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...A SFC WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA SHORTY AFTER 00Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE WARMEST BL AIR
PROGGED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...EAST OF THE
WEDGE FRONT...THE BEST INSTABILITY AND BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
RIGHT NOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF US-1. THIS BEARS CLOSE
WATCHING THOUGH...AS BULK SHEAR VALUES WELL IN EXCESS OF 50KT AND
FORMIDABLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES INVOF OF THE WARM FRONT WOULD
PORTEND SEVERE CONVECTION IF THERE WAS ADEQUATE INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...THE MID-LEVEL VORT AXIS LINKED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN ITS WAKE AND THUS
RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E.  RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
REGARDING TEMPS...WITH AN EVENING WARM FRONT PASSAGE...HIGH TEMPS ON
SUNDAY WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS THEN STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S...OR PERHAPS EVEN RISING A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. WITH THE BULK OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINING TO OUR
EAST...LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY AND WARM
PREFRONTAL TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE
IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY EVENING OR AT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AS A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY GRADUALLY APPROACHES...AND SW FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH KEEPS THIS FRONT HELD UP ALONG THE COAST. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EAST...A SFC WAVE IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE ON TUESDAY...AND MODELS HAVE
RECENTLY TRENDED TOWARD A SOLUTION THAT ROTATES SOME MOISTURE AND
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT COOL RAIN BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WILL BE COOLER WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO...OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THANKSGIVING...YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE EAST.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED DEEPER WITH THIS SHORT WAVE...AND
EVEN SUGGEST A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC OR CAROLINAS. WHILE THIS PATTERN MAY RAISE SOME CONCERN
...ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THIS IS 6 DAYS AWAYS AND SOLUTIONS ARE
LIKELY TO CHANGE...AND SYSTEMS LIKE THIS THAT APPROACH US FROM NW IN
THIS FASHION ARE OFTEN MOISTURE-LIMITED...AT LEAST ACROSS OUR AREA.
WORTH WATCHING THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM FRIDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CURRENT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD VEER AND ABATE
AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...YIELDING CLEAR SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT
WINDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFT/EVE INTO MONDAY...YIELDING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN BELOW
VFR UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NP
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...KC
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211751
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1251 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY SPREADS MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA TODAY...MOVING EAST AND THEN SOUTHWARD...SETTLING OVER NC
TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION...WITH CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD RELAX SOME AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.
GIVEN THICKNESSES AROUND 1300 METERS...LOWER IN THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND HIGHER IN THE SOUTH...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY. LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN
THE NORTHEAST...MID 40S...AND HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...LOW 50S.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...
VEERING OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHEAST TO MID 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH. -KC

AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY...AGAIN WITH SOME MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS AROUND...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES RISE ABOUT 30M AND HIGHS SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THOSE HIGHS EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS FORECAST BY THE NAM
AND GFS TO JUST BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z
SUNDAY. K INDICES ARE NEAR 0 OR NEGATIVE ON THE GFS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE NAM ONLY INCREASES VALUES INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AND STABLE FOR
THE NIGHT...SAVE LATE AND MAINLY ON THE NAM WHERE THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN A SHALLOW VOLUME INCREASES A LITTLE EARLIER SOUTHWEST.
QPF IS ESSENTIALLY ZERO IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS...WITH THE 0.01 LINE ON THE NAM EDGING EVER SO CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST IF ANY CAN WORK THROUGH WHAT
WILL BE A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROBABLY BE
REACHED EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN PARTICULAR SLOWING ANY FALL
AND WITH POSSIBLY A MINOR RISE IN TEMPERATURES LATE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. -DJF

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH
DYNAMICS REMAINS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75"(2 SD ABOVE NORMAL)...LOOK
FOR POPS TO QUICKLY RAMP UP SW TO NE LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON VIA SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD
LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND FURTHER AUGMENTED BY DPVA AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTING NEWD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRIMARY TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0".  BULK OF PRECIP
LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY WITH
LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
WE LOSE SATURATION ALOFT.

IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-
LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A
NORTHWARD RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO
WORK WITH MODELS KEEPING THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
NEAR OR OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY INLAND
INTRUSION OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO INLAND AREAS...BUT BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER
SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE
POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH 60S ACROSS THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: IN THE MIDST OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL US RELOADING...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST
AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO
GENERATE A LITTLE PRECIP UNTIL THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS TO KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA. WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE EAST. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH THIS OVERCAST/BROKEN CLOUD
DECK...TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE 60S NW TO
70S SE ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A DRY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST WITH CAA IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY
NIGHT FROPA DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS THEN
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT BATCH OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING EASTWARD WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE. THE LATEST GFS AND EC HAVE TRENDED WETTER DURING THE TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING INLAND IN THE COOL
SECTOR. FOR NOW...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COASTAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO BELOW
NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM FRIDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CURRENT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD VEER AND ABATE
AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...YIELDING CLEAR SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT
WINDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFT/EVE INTO MONDAY...YIELDING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN BELOW
VFR UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...KC/DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KC
CLIMATE...RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 211751
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1251 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY SPREADS MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA TODAY...MOVING EAST AND THEN SOUTHWARD...SETTLING OVER NC
TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION...WITH CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD RELAX SOME AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.
GIVEN THICKNESSES AROUND 1300 METERS...LOWER IN THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND HIGHER IN THE SOUTH...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY. LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN
THE NORTHEAST...MID 40S...AND HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...LOW 50S.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...
VEERING OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHEAST TO MID 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH. -KC

AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY...AGAIN WITH SOME MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS AROUND...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES RISE ABOUT 30M AND HIGHS SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THOSE HIGHS EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS FORECAST BY THE NAM
AND GFS TO JUST BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z
SUNDAY. K INDICES ARE NEAR 0 OR NEGATIVE ON THE GFS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE NAM ONLY INCREASES VALUES INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AND STABLE FOR
THE NIGHT...SAVE LATE AND MAINLY ON THE NAM WHERE THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN A SHALLOW VOLUME INCREASES A LITTLE EARLIER SOUTHWEST.
QPF IS ESSENTIALLY ZERO IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS...WITH THE 0.01 LINE ON THE NAM EDGING EVER SO CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST IF ANY CAN WORK THROUGH WHAT
WILL BE A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROBABLY BE
REACHED EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN PARTICULAR SLOWING ANY FALL
AND WITH POSSIBLY A MINOR RISE IN TEMPERATURES LATE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. -DJF

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH
DYNAMICS REMAINS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75"(2 SD ABOVE NORMAL)...LOOK
FOR POPS TO QUICKLY RAMP UP SW TO NE LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON VIA SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD
LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND FURTHER AUGMENTED BY DPVA AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTING NEWD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRIMARY TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0".  BULK OF PRECIP
LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY WITH
LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
WE LOSE SATURATION ALOFT.

IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-
LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A
NORTHWARD RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO
WORK WITH MODELS KEEPING THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
NEAR OR OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY INLAND
INTRUSION OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO INLAND AREAS...BUT BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER
SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE
POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH 60S ACROSS THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: IN THE MIDST OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL US RELOADING...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST
AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO
GENERATE A LITTLE PRECIP UNTIL THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS TO KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA. WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE EAST. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH THIS OVERCAST/BROKEN CLOUD
DECK...TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE 60S NW TO
70S SE ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A DRY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST WITH CAA IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY
NIGHT FROPA DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS THEN
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT BATCH OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING EASTWARD WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE. THE LATEST GFS AND EC HAVE TRENDED WETTER DURING THE TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING INLAND IN THE COOL
SECTOR. FOR NOW...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COASTAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO BELOW
NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM FRIDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CURRENT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD VEER AND ABATE
AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...YIELDING CLEAR SKIES AND CALM TO LIGHT
WINDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFT/EVE INTO MONDAY...YIELDING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN BELOW
VFR UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...KC/DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KC
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211525
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1025 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY SPREADS MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA TODAY...MOVING EAST AND THEN SOUTHWARD...SETTLING OVER NC
TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION...WITH CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD RELAX SOME AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.
GIVEN THICKNESSES AROUND 1300 METERS...LOWER IN THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND HIGHER IN THE SOUTH...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY. LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN
THE NORTHEAST...MID 40S...AND HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...LOW 50S.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...
VEERING OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHEAST TO MID 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH. -KC

AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY...AGAIN WITH SOME MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS AROUND...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES RISE ABOUT 30M AND HIGHS SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THOSE HIGHS EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS FORECAST BY THE NAM
AND GFS TO JUST BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z
SUNDAY. K INDICES ARE NEAR 0 OR NEGATIVE ON THE GFS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE NAM ONLY INCREASES VALUES INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AND STABLE FOR
THE NIGHT...SAVE LATE AND MAINLY ON THE NAM WHERE THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN A SHALLOW VOLUME INCREASES A LITTLE EARLIER SOUTHWEST.
QPF IS ESSENTIALLY ZERO IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS...WITH THE 0.01 LINE ON THE NAM EDGING EVER SO CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST IF ANY CAN WORK THROUGH WHAT
WILL BE A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROBABLY BE
REACHED EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN PARTICULAR SLOWING ANY FALL
AND WITH POSSIBLY A MINOR RISE IN TEMPERATURES LATE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. -DJF

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH
DYNAMICS REMAINS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75"(2 SD ABOVE NORMAL)...LOOK
FOR POPS TO QUICKLY RAMP UP SW TO NE LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON VIA SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD
LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND FURTHER AUGMENTED BY DPVA AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTING NEWD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRIMARY TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0".  BULK OF PRECIP
LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY WITH
LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
WE LOSE SATURATION ALOFT.

IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-
LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A
NORTHWARD RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO
WORK WITH MODELS KEEPING THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
NEAR OR OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY INLAND
INTRUSION OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO INLAND AREAS...BUT BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER
SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE
POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH 60S ACROSS THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: IN THE MIDST OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL US RELOADING...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST
AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO
GENERATE A LITTLE PRECIP UNTIL THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS TO KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA. WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE EAST. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH THIS OVERCAST/BROKEN CLOUD
DECK...TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE 60S NW TO
70S SE ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A DRY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST WITH CAA IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY
NIGHT FROPA DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS THEN
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT BATCH OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING EASTWARD WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE. THE LATEST GFS AND EC HAVE TRENDED WETTER DURING THE TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING INLAND IN THE COOL
SECTOR. FOR NOW...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COASTAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO BELOW
NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...

FOR THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY
FEW-TO-SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THIS MORNING...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE CLEARING LATER IN THE MORNING.
THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING HOURS SUCH THAT
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW NORTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE TEENS KNOTS
WITH MIXING THIS MORNING. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD...
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER AS THEY VEER LATER IN THE DAY WITH MANY
CALM OR VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TAKING PLACE AFTER SUNSET.

BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD
NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE THROUGH MVFR TO IFR IN MOST PLACES AND CONTINUE SUB-VFR
AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH COULD REACH 40KT BY
2000FT ALOFT IF THE GFS MODEL VERIFIES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
BY TUESDAY WITH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER A LIGHTER
SURFACE WIND VEERING NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TOWARD
KFAY AND KRWI LATE TUESDAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
MOVES ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL LOCATED THEN JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...KC/DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211525
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1025 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY SPREADS MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA TODAY...MOVING EAST AND THEN SOUTHWARD...SETTLING OVER NC
TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION...WITH CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD RELAX SOME AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.
GIVEN THICKNESSES AROUND 1300 METERS...LOWER IN THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND HIGHER IN THE SOUTH...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY. LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN
THE NORTHEAST...MID 40S...AND HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...LOW 50S.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...
VEERING OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHEAST TO MID 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH. -KC

AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY...AGAIN WITH SOME MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS AROUND...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES RISE ABOUT 30M AND HIGHS SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THOSE HIGHS EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS FORECAST BY THE NAM
AND GFS TO JUST BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z
SUNDAY. K INDICES ARE NEAR 0 OR NEGATIVE ON THE GFS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE NAM ONLY INCREASES VALUES INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AND STABLE FOR
THE NIGHT...SAVE LATE AND MAINLY ON THE NAM WHERE THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN A SHALLOW VOLUME INCREASES A LITTLE EARLIER SOUTHWEST.
QPF IS ESSENTIALLY ZERO IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS...WITH THE 0.01 LINE ON THE NAM EDGING EVER SO CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST IF ANY CAN WORK THROUGH WHAT
WILL BE A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROBABLY BE
REACHED EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN PARTICULAR SLOWING ANY FALL
AND WITH POSSIBLY A MINOR RISE IN TEMPERATURES LATE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. -DJF

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH
DYNAMICS REMAINS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75"(2 SD ABOVE NORMAL)...LOOK
FOR POPS TO QUICKLY RAMP UP SW TO NE LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON VIA SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD
LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND FURTHER AUGMENTED BY DPVA AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTING NEWD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRIMARY TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0".  BULK OF PRECIP
LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY WITH
LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
WE LOSE SATURATION ALOFT.

IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-
LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A
NORTHWARD RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO
WORK WITH MODELS KEEPING THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
NEAR OR OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY INLAND
INTRUSION OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO INLAND AREAS...BUT BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER
SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE
POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH 60S ACROSS THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: IN THE MIDST OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL US RELOADING...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST
AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO
GENERATE A LITTLE PRECIP UNTIL THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS TO KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA. WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE EAST. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH THIS OVERCAST/BROKEN CLOUD
DECK...TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE 60S NW TO
70S SE ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A DRY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST WITH CAA IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY
NIGHT FROPA DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS THEN
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT BATCH OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING EASTWARD WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE. THE LATEST GFS AND EC HAVE TRENDED WETTER DURING THE TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING INLAND IN THE COOL
SECTOR. FOR NOW...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COASTAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO BELOW
NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...

FOR THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY
FEW-TO-SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THIS MORNING...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE CLEARING LATER IN THE MORNING.
THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING HOURS SUCH THAT
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW NORTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE TEENS KNOTS
WITH MIXING THIS MORNING. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD...
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER AS THEY VEER LATER IN THE DAY WITH MANY
CALM OR VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TAKING PLACE AFTER SUNSET.

BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD
NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE THROUGH MVFR TO IFR IN MOST PLACES AND CONTINUE SUB-VFR
AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH COULD REACH 40KT BY
2000FT ALOFT IF THE GFS MODEL VERIFIES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
BY TUESDAY WITH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER A LIGHTER
SURFACE WIND VEERING NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TOWARD
KFAY AND KRWI LATE TUESDAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
MOVES ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL LOCATED THEN JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...KC/DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 211525
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1025 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY SPREADS MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1025 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA TODAY...MOVING EAST AND THEN SOUTHWARD...SETTLING OVER NC
TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION...WITH CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD RELAX SOME AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.
GIVEN THICKNESSES AROUND 1300 METERS...LOWER IN THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND HIGHER IN THE SOUTH...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY. LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN
THE NORTHEAST...MID 40S...AND HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...LOW 50S.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...
VEERING OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM TO LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE
NORTHEAST TO MID 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH. -KC

AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...
SATURDAY...AGAIN WITH SOME MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS AROUND...1000-850MB
THICKNESSES RISE ABOUT 30M AND HIGHS SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THOSE HIGHS EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS FORECAST BY THE NAM
AND GFS TO JUST BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z
SUNDAY. K INDICES ARE NEAR 0 OR NEGATIVE ON THE GFS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE NAM ONLY INCREASES VALUES INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AND STABLE FOR
THE NIGHT...SAVE LATE AND MAINLY ON THE NAM WHERE THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN A SHALLOW VOLUME INCREASES A LITTLE EARLIER SOUTHWEST.
QPF IS ESSENTIALLY ZERO IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS...WITH THE 0.01 LINE ON THE NAM EDGING EVER SO CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST IF ANY CAN WORK THROUGH WHAT
WILL BE A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROBABLY BE
REACHED EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN PARTICULAR SLOWING ANY FALL
AND WITH POSSIBLY A MINOR RISE IN TEMPERATURES LATE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. -DJF

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH
DYNAMICS REMAINS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75"(2 SD ABOVE NORMAL)...LOOK
FOR POPS TO QUICKLY RAMP UP SW TO NE LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON VIA SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD
LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND FURTHER AUGMENTED BY DPVA AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTING NEWD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRIMARY TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0".  BULK OF PRECIP
LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY WITH
LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
WE LOSE SATURATION ALOFT.

IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-
LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A
NORTHWARD RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO
WORK WITH MODELS KEEPING THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
NEAR OR OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY INLAND
INTRUSION OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO INLAND AREAS...BUT BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER
SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE
POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH 60S ACROSS THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: IN THE MIDST OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL US RELOADING...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST
AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO
GENERATE A LITTLE PRECIP UNTIL THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS TO KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA. WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE EAST. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH THIS OVERCAST/BROKEN CLOUD
DECK...TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE 60S NW TO
70S SE ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A DRY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST WITH CAA IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY
NIGHT FROPA DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS THEN
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT BATCH OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING EASTWARD WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE. THE LATEST GFS AND EC HAVE TRENDED WETTER DURING THE TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING INLAND IN THE COOL
SECTOR. FOR NOW...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COASTAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO BELOW
NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...

FOR THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY
FEW-TO-SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THIS MORNING...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE CLEARING LATER IN THE MORNING.
THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING HOURS SUCH THAT
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW NORTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE TEENS KNOTS
WITH MIXING THIS MORNING. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD...
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER AS THEY VEER LATER IN THE DAY WITH MANY
CALM OR VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TAKING PLACE AFTER SUNSET.

BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD
NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE THROUGH MVFR TO IFR IN MOST PLACES AND CONTINUE SUB-VFR
AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH COULD REACH 40KT BY
2000FT ALOFT IF THE GFS MODEL VERIFIES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
BY TUESDAY WITH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER A LIGHTER
SURFACE WIND VEERING NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TOWARD
KFAY AND KRWI LATE TUESDAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
MOVES ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL LOCATED THEN JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...KC/DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211155
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BEHIND A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY SPREADS MOISTURE
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT ALMOST THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH COOLER...DRIER AIR GRADUALLY MOVING
SOUTH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOWED SOME DEW POINTS IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT HAVING FALLEN INTO THE TEENS...AND THESE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND DRY EVEN MORE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
FALLING TO AROUND 10F TO THE TEENS DURING THE DAY. THE 00Z 850MB
ANALYSIS NOTED NOTICEABLE COOLING TO THE NORTHWEST...FROM 2C AT KGSO
AND -2C AT KRNK TO -11C AT KILN. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WILL RISE
LITTLE IF AT ALL TODAY AND THE RESULT IS AROUND 10F OR SO OF COOLING
TODAY...DESPITE THE MANY TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AS OF THIS WRITING.
SOME CIRRUS IN THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NOTICED
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE CANADIAN
CLOUD COVER MODEL SUGGEST ENOUGH DRYING ALOFT ALTHOUGH THE 300MB JET
AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD THAT MUCH OF ANY CIRRUS SHOULD BE ABSENT BY
AFTERNOON. THE CIRRUS IS LIKELY DUE...IN PART...TO SOME UPSTREAM
ENHANCEMENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
COINCIDENT WITH A MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING OVER THE APPALACHIANS. ONCE
THE WAVE PASSES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THE HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD START TO WANE. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS A LITTLE TIGHTER THIS
MORNING AND BUFR SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SUGGEST
A FEW GUSTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE WITH MIXING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT REALLY LIGHTENS THE
WINDS.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS FROM THE NAM AND
GFS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THIN CIRRUS AS THE BROAD RIDGE
AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
DEPICTS SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE MAV AND MET MOS...CLEAR TO FEW
CLOUDS WHICH...UNDER A LIGHT WIND AND DRY SURFACE DEW POINTS...
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY TONIGHT. MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE ARE CLOSE AND TENDED TO STRAY COOLER ESPECIALLY FROM THE
TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST WHERE ANY CIRRUS SHOULD BE EVEN THINNER AND
LESS NOTICEABLE. THINK SOME TEENS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THE RECORD
LOWS AT KGSO AND KFAY APPEAR SAFE FOR SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL BE
CLOSE AT THE RELATIVELY WARM RECORD LOW AT KRDU. SATURDAY...AGAIN
WITH SOME MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS AROUND...1000-850MB THICKNESSES RISE
ABOUT 30M AND HIGHS SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE HIGHS
EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS FORECAST BY THE NAM
AND GFS TO JUST BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z
SUNDAY. K INDICES ARE NEAR 0 OR NEGATIVE ON THE GFS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE NAM ONLY INCREASES VALUES INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AND STABLE FOR
THE NIGHT...SAVE LATE AND MAINLY ON THE NAM WHERE THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN A SHALLOW VOLUME INCREASES A LITTLE EARLIER SOUTHWEST.
QPF IS ESSENTIALLY ZERO IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS...WITH THE 0.01 LINE ON THE NAM EDGING EVER SO CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST IF ANY CAN WORK THROUGH WHAT
WILL BE A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROBABLY BE
REACHED EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN PARTICULAR SLOWING ANY FALL
AND WITH POSSIBLY A MINOR RISE IN TEMPERATURES LATE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH
DYNAMICS REMAINS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75"(2 SD ABOVE NORMAL)...LOOK
FOR POPS TO QUICKLY RAMP UP SW TO NE LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON VIA SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD
LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND FURTHER AUGMENTED BY DPVA AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTING NEWD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRIMARY TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0".  BULK OF PRECIP
LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY WITH
LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
WE LOSE SATURATION ALOFT.

IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-
LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A
NORTHWARD RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO
WORK WITH MODELS KEEPING THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
NEAR OR OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY INLAND
INTRUSION OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO INLAND AREAS...BUT BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER
SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE
POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH 60S ACROSS THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: IN THE MIDST OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL US RELOADING...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST
AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO
GENERATE A LITTLE PRECIP UNTIL THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS TO KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA. WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE EAST. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH THIS OVERCAST/BROKEN CLOUD
DECK...TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE 60S NW TO
70S SE ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A DRY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST WITH CAA IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY
NIGHT FROPA DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS THEN
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT BATCH OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING EASTWARD WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE. THE LATEST GFS AND EC HAVE TRENDED WETTER DURING THE TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING INLAND IN THE COOL
SECTOR. FOR NOW...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COASTAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO BELOW
NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...

FOR THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY
FEW-TO-SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THIS MORNING...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE CLEARING LATER IN THE MORNING.
THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING HOURS SUCH THAT
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW NORTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE TEENS KNOTS
WITH MIXING THIS MORNING. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD...
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER AS THEY VEER LATER IN THE DAY WITH MANY
CALM OR VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TAKING PLACE AFTER SUNSET.

BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD
NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE THROUGH MVFR TO IFR IN MOST PLACES AND CONTINUE SUB-VFR
AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH COULD REACH 40KT BY
2000FT ALOFT IF THE GFS MODEL VERIFIES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
BY TUESDAY WITH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER A LIGHTER
SURFACE WIND VEERING NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TOWARD
KFAY AND KRWI LATE TUESDAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
MOVES ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL LOCATED THEN JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211155
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BEHIND A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY SPREADS MOISTURE
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT ALMOST THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH COOLER...DRIER AIR GRADUALLY MOVING
SOUTH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOWED SOME DEW POINTS IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT HAVING FALLEN INTO THE TEENS...AND THESE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND DRY EVEN MORE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
FALLING TO AROUND 10F TO THE TEENS DURING THE DAY. THE 00Z 850MB
ANALYSIS NOTED NOTICEABLE COOLING TO THE NORTHWEST...FROM 2C AT KGSO
AND -2C AT KRNK TO -11C AT KILN. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WILL RISE
LITTLE IF AT ALL TODAY AND THE RESULT IS AROUND 10F OR SO OF COOLING
TODAY...DESPITE THE MANY TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AS OF THIS WRITING.
SOME CIRRUS IN THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NOTICED
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE CANADIAN
CLOUD COVER MODEL SUGGEST ENOUGH DRYING ALOFT ALTHOUGH THE 300MB JET
AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD THAT MUCH OF ANY CIRRUS SHOULD BE ABSENT BY
AFTERNOON. THE CIRRUS IS LIKELY DUE...IN PART...TO SOME UPSTREAM
ENHANCEMENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
COINCIDENT WITH A MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING OVER THE APPALACHIANS. ONCE
THE WAVE PASSES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THE HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD START TO WANE. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS A LITTLE TIGHTER THIS
MORNING AND BUFR SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SUGGEST
A FEW GUSTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE WITH MIXING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT REALLY LIGHTENS THE
WINDS.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS FROM THE NAM AND
GFS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THIN CIRRUS AS THE BROAD RIDGE
AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
DEPICTS SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE MAV AND MET MOS...CLEAR TO FEW
CLOUDS WHICH...UNDER A LIGHT WIND AND DRY SURFACE DEW POINTS...
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY TONIGHT. MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE ARE CLOSE AND TENDED TO STRAY COOLER ESPECIALLY FROM THE
TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST WHERE ANY CIRRUS SHOULD BE EVEN THINNER AND
LESS NOTICEABLE. THINK SOME TEENS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THE RECORD
LOWS AT KGSO AND KFAY APPEAR SAFE FOR SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL BE
CLOSE AT THE RELATIVELY WARM RECORD LOW AT KRDU. SATURDAY...AGAIN
WITH SOME MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS AROUND...1000-850MB THICKNESSES RISE
ABOUT 30M AND HIGHS SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE HIGHS
EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS FORECAST BY THE NAM
AND GFS TO JUST BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z
SUNDAY. K INDICES ARE NEAR 0 OR NEGATIVE ON THE GFS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE NAM ONLY INCREASES VALUES INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AND STABLE FOR
THE NIGHT...SAVE LATE AND MAINLY ON THE NAM WHERE THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN A SHALLOW VOLUME INCREASES A LITTLE EARLIER SOUTHWEST.
QPF IS ESSENTIALLY ZERO IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS...WITH THE 0.01 LINE ON THE NAM EDGING EVER SO CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST IF ANY CAN WORK THROUGH WHAT
WILL BE A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROBABLY BE
REACHED EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN PARTICULAR SLOWING ANY FALL
AND WITH POSSIBLY A MINOR RISE IN TEMPERATURES LATE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH
DYNAMICS REMAINS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75"(2 SD ABOVE NORMAL)...LOOK
FOR POPS TO QUICKLY RAMP UP SW TO NE LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON VIA SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD
LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND FURTHER AUGMENTED BY DPVA AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTING NEWD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRIMARY TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0".  BULK OF PRECIP
LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY WITH
LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
WE LOSE SATURATION ALOFT.

IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-
LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A
NORTHWARD RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO
WORK WITH MODELS KEEPING THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
NEAR OR OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY INLAND
INTRUSION OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO INLAND AREAS...BUT BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER
SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE
POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH 60S ACROSS THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: IN THE MIDST OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL US RELOADING...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST
AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO
GENERATE A LITTLE PRECIP UNTIL THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS TO KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA. WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE EAST. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH THIS OVERCAST/BROKEN CLOUD
DECK...TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE 60S NW TO
70S SE ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A DRY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST WITH CAA IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY
NIGHT FROPA DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS THEN
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT BATCH OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING EASTWARD WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE. THE LATEST GFS AND EC HAVE TRENDED WETTER DURING THE TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING INLAND IN THE COOL
SECTOR. FOR NOW...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COASTAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO BELOW
NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...

FOR THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY
FEW-TO-SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THIS MORNING...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE CLEARING LATER IN THE MORNING.
THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING HOURS SUCH THAT
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW NORTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE TEENS KNOTS
WITH MIXING THIS MORNING. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD...
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER AS THEY VEER LATER IN THE DAY WITH MANY
CALM OR VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TAKING PLACE AFTER SUNSET.

BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD
NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE THROUGH MVFR TO IFR IN MOST PLACES AND CONTINUE SUB-VFR
AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH COULD REACH 40KT BY
2000FT ALOFT IF THE GFS MODEL VERIFIES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
BY TUESDAY WITH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER A LIGHTER
SURFACE WIND VEERING NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TOWARD
KFAY AND KRWI LATE TUESDAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
MOVES ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL LOCATED THEN JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 211155
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BEHIND A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY SPREADS MOISTURE
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT ALMOST THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH COOLER...DRIER AIR GRADUALLY MOVING
SOUTH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOWED SOME DEW POINTS IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT HAVING FALLEN INTO THE TEENS...AND THESE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND DRY EVEN MORE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
FALLING TO AROUND 10F TO THE TEENS DURING THE DAY. THE 00Z 850MB
ANALYSIS NOTED NOTICEABLE COOLING TO THE NORTHWEST...FROM 2C AT KGSO
AND -2C AT KRNK TO -11C AT KILN. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WILL RISE
LITTLE IF AT ALL TODAY AND THE RESULT IS AROUND 10F OR SO OF COOLING
TODAY...DESPITE THE MANY TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AS OF THIS WRITING.
SOME CIRRUS IN THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NOTICED
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE CANADIAN
CLOUD COVER MODEL SUGGEST ENOUGH DRYING ALOFT ALTHOUGH THE 300MB JET
AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD THAT MUCH OF ANY CIRRUS SHOULD BE ABSENT BY
AFTERNOON. THE CIRRUS IS LIKELY DUE...IN PART...TO SOME UPSTREAM
ENHANCEMENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
COINCIDENT WITH A MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING OVER THE APPALACHIANS. ONCE
THE WAVE PASSES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THE HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD START TO WANE. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS A LITTLE TIGHTER THIS
MORNING AND BUFR SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SUGGEST
A FEW GUSTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE WITH MIXING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT REALLY LIGHTENS THE
WINDS.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS FROM THE NAM AND
GFS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THIN CIRRUS AS THE BROAD RIDGE
AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
DEPICTS SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE MAV AND MET MOS...CLEAR TO FEW
CLOUDS WHICH...UNDER A LIGHT WIND AND DRY SURFACE DEW POINTS...
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY TONIGHT. MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE ARE CLOSE AND TENDED TO STRAY COOLER ESPECIALLY FROM THE
TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST WHERE ANY CIRRUS SHOULD BE EVEN THINNER AND
LESS NOTICEABLE. THINK SOME TEENS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THE RECORD
LOWS AT KGSO AND KFAY APPEAR SAFE FOR SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL BE
CLOSE AT THE RELATIVELY WARM RECORD LOW AT KRDU. SATURDAY...AGAIN
WITH SOME MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS AROUND...1000-850MB THICKNESSES RISE
ABOUT 30M AND HIGHS SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE HIGHS
EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS FORECAST BY THE NAM
AND GFS TO JUST BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z
SUNDAY. K INDICES ARE NEAR 0 OR NEGATIVE ON THE GFS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE NAM ONLY INCREASES VALUES INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AND STABLE FOR
THE NIGHT...SAVE LATE AND MAINLY ON THE NAM WHERE THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN A SHALLOW VOLUME INCREASES A LITTLE EARLIER SOUTHWEST.
QPF IS ESSENTIALLY ZERO IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS...WITH THE 0.01 LINE ON THE NAM EDGING EVER SO CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST IF ANY CAN WORK THROUGH WHAT
WILL BE A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROBABLY BE
REACHED EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN PARTICULAR SLOWING ANY FALL
AND WITH POSSIBLY A MINOR RISE IN TEMPERATURES LATE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH
DYNAMICS REMAINS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75"(2 SD ABOVE NORMAL)...LOOK
FOR POPS TO QUICKLY RAMP UP SW TO NE LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON VIA SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD
LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND FURTHER AUGMENTED BY DPVA AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTING NEWD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRIMARY TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0".  BULK OF PRECIP
LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY WITH
LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
WE LOSE SATURATION ALOFT.

IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-
LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A
NORTHWARD RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO
WORK WITH MODELS KEEPING THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
NEAR OR OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY INLAND
INTRUSION OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO INLAND AREAS...BUT BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER
SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE
POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH 60S ACROSS THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: IN THE MIDST OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL US RELOADING...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST
AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO
GENERATE A LITTLE PRECIP UNTIL THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS TO KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA. WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE EAST. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH THIS OVERCAST/BROKEN CLOUD
DECK...TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE 60S NW TO
70S SE ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A DRY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST WITH CAA IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY
NIGHT FROPA DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS THEN
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT BATCH OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING EASTWARD WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE. THE LATEST GFS AND EC HAVE TRENDED WETTER DURING THE TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING INLAND IN THE COOL
SECTOR. FOR NOW...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COASTAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO BELOW
NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY...

FOR THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY
FEW-TO-SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THIS MORNING...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE CLEARING LATER IN THE MORNING.
THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING HOURS SUCH THAT
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW NORTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE TEENS KNOTS
WITH MIXING THIS MORNING. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD...
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER AS THEY VEER LATER IN THE DAY WITH MANY
CALM OR VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TAKING PLACE AFTER SUNSET.

BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD
NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE THROUGH MVFR TO IFR IN MOST PLACES AND CONTINUE SUB-VFR
AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH COULD REACH 40KT BY
2000FT ALOFT IF THE GFS MODEL VERIFIES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
BY TUESDAY WITH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER A LIGHTER
SURFACE WIND VEERING NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH LATE MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TOWARD
KFAY AND KRWI LATE TUESDAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
MOVES ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL LOCATED THEN JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 210734
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BEHIND A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY SPREADS MOISTURE
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT ALMOST THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH COOLER...DRIER AIR GRADUALLY MOVING
SOUTH. MSAS SHOWED THE SURFACE DEW POINT GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE AND SOON THIS DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN
PUSHING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FALLING FROM AROUND 10 TO THE TEENS DURING
THE DAY. THE 00Z 850MB ANALYSIS NOTED NOTICEABLE COOLING TO THE
NORTHWEST...FROM 2C AT KGSO AND -2C AT KRNK TO -11C AT KILN. 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES WILL RISE LITTLE IF AT ALL TODAY AND THE RESULT IS
AROUND 10F OR SO OF COOLING TODAY...DESPITE THE MANY TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S AS OF THIS WRITING. SOME CIRRUS IN THE BASE OF THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH MAY BE NOTICED ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL SUGGEST ENOUGH DRYING
ALOFT ALTHOUGH THE 300MB JET AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD THAT MUCH OF ANY
CIRRUS SHOULD BE ABSENT BY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE QUITE POSSIBLY
DUE TO SOME UPSTREAM ENHANCEMENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MOVING EAST BY THEN. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS
A LITTLE TIGHTER THIS MORNING AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW GUSTS
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE WITH MIXING BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT REALLY LIGHTENS THE WINDS.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS FROM THE NAM AND
GFS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THIN CIRRUS AS THE BROAD RIDGE
AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
DEPICTS SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE MAV AND MET MOS...CLEAR TO FEW
CLOUDS WHICH...UNDER A LIGHT WIND AND DRY SURFACE DEW POINTS...
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY TONIGHT. MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE ARE CLOSE AND TENDED TO STRAY COOLER ESPECIALLY FROM THE
TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST WHERE ANY CIRRUS SHOULD BE EVEN THINNER AND
LESS NOTICEABLE. THINK SOME TEENS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THE RECORD
LOWS AT KGSO AND KFAY APPEAR SAFE FOR SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL BE
CLOSE AT THE RELATIVELY WARM RECORD LOW AT KRDU. SATURDAY...AGAIN
WITH SOME MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS AROUND...1000-850MB THICKNESSES RISE
ABOUT 30M AND HIGHS SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE HIGHS
EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS FORECAST BY THE NAM
AND GFS TO JUST BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z
SUNDAY. K INDICES ARE NEAR 0 OR NEGATIVE ON THE GFS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE NAM ONLY INCREASES VALUES INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AND STABLE FOR
THE NIGHT...SAVE LATE AND MAINLY ON THE NAM WHERE THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN A SHALLOW VOLUME INCREASES A LITTLE EARLIER SOUTHWEST.
QPF IS ESSENTIALLY ZERO IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS...WITH THE 0.01 LINE ON THE NAM EDGING EVER SO CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST IF ANY CAN WORK THROUGH WHAT
WILL BE A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROBABLY BE
REACHED EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN PARTICULAR SLOWING ANY FALL
AND WITH POSSIBLY A MINOR RISE IN TEMPERATURES LATE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH
DYNAMICS REMAINS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75"(2 SD ABOVE NORMAL)...LOOK
FOR POPS TO QUICKLY RAMP UP SW TO NE LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON VIA SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD
LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND FURTHER AUGMENTED BY DPVA AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTING NEWD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRIMARY TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0".  BULK OF PRECIP
LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY WITH
LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
WE LOSE SATURATION ALOFT.

IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-
LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A
NORTHWARD RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO
WORK WITH MODELS KEEPING THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
NEAR OR OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY INLAND
INTRUSION OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO INLAND AREAS...BUT BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER
SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE
POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH 60S ACROSS THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: IN THE MIDST OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL US RELOADING...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST
AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO
GENERATE A LITTLE PRECIP UNTIL THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS TO KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA. WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE EAST. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH THIS OVERCAST/BROKEN CLOUD
DECK...TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE 60S NW TO
70S SE ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A DRY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST WITH CAA IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY
NIGHT FROPA DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS THEN
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT BATCH OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING EASTWARD WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE. THE LATEST GFS AND EC HAVE TRENDED WETTER DURING THE TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING INLAND IN THE COOL
SECTOR. FOR NOW...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COASTAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO BELOW
NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...

FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH FEW-TO-
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SUCH THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A FEW NORTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE TEENS KNOTS WITH MIXING THIS MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER
LATER IN THE DAY WITH MANY CALM SURFACE WINDS TAKING PLACE AFTER
SUNSET.

BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
THROUGH MVFR TO IFR IN MOST PLACES AND CONTINUE SUB-VFR AT LEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH COULD REACH 40KT BY 2000FT
ALOFT IF THE GFS MODEL VERIFIES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY
TUESDAY WITH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER A LIGHTER SURFACE
WIND VEERING NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH LATE
MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI
LATE TUESDAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH WILL LOCATED THEN JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 210734
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BEHIND A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY SPREADS MOISTURE
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT ALMOST THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH COOLER...DRIER AIR GRADUALLY MOVING
SOUTH. MSAS SHOWED THE SURFACE DEW POINT GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE AND SOON THIS DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN
PUSHING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FALLING FROM AROUND 10 TO THE TEENS DURING
THE DAY. THE 00Z 850MB ANALYSIS NOTED NOTICEABLE COOLING TO THE
NORTHWEST...FROM 2C AT KGSO AND -2C AT KRNK TO -11C AT KILN. 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES WILL RISE LITTLE IF AT ALL TODAY AND THE RESULT IS
AROUND 10F OR SO OF COOLING TODAY...DESPITE THE MANY TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S AS OF THIS WRITING. SOME CIRRUS IN THE BASE OF THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH MAY BE NOTICED ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL SUGGEST ENOUGH DRYING
ALOFT ALTHOUGH THE 300MB JET AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD THAT MUCH OF ANY
CIRRUS SHOULD BE ABSENT BY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE QUITE POSSIBLY
DUE TO SOME UPSTREAM ENHANCEMENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MOVING EAST BY THEN. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS
A LITTLE TIGHTER THIS MORNING AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW GUSTS
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE WITH MIXING BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT REALLY LIGHTENS THE WINDS.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS FROM THE NAM AND
GFS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THIN CIRRUS AS THE BROAD RIDGE
AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
DEPICTS SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE MAV AND MET MOS...CLEAR TO FEW
CLOUDS WHICH...UNDER A LIGHT WIND AND DRY SURFACE DEW POINTS...
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY TONIGHT. MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE ARE CLOSE AND TENDED TO STRAY COOLER ESPECIALLY FROM THE
TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST WHERE ANY CIRRUS SHOULD BE EVEN THINNER AND
LESS NOTICEABLE. THINK SOME TEENS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THE RECORD
LOWS AT KGSO AND KFAY APPEAR SAFE FOR SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL BE
CLOSE AT THE RELATIVELY WARM RECORD LOW AT KRDU. SATURDAY...AGAIN
WITH SOME MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS AROUND...1000-850MB THICKNESSES RISE
ABOUT 30M AND HIGHS SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE HIGHS
EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS FORECAST BY THE NAM
AND GFS TO JUST BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z
SUNDAY. K INDICES ARE NEAR 0 OR NEGATIVE ON THE GFS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE NAM ONLY INCREASES VALUES INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AND STABLE FOR
THE NIGHT...SAVE LATE AND MAINLY ON THE NAM WHERE THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN A SHALLOW VOLUME INCREASES A LITTLE EARLIER SOUTHWEST.
QPF IS ESSENTIALLY ZERO IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS...WITH THE 0.01 LINE ON THE NAM EDGING EVER SO CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST IF ANY CAN WORK THROUGH WHAT
WILL BE A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROBABLY BE
REACHED EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN PARTICULAR SLOWING ANY FALL
AND WITH POSSIBLY A MINOR RISE IN TEMPERATURES LATE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH
DYNAMICS REMAINS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75"(2 SD ABOVE NORMAL)...LOOK
FOR POPS TO QUICKLY RAMP UP SW TO NE LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON VIA SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD
LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND FURTHER AUGMENTED BY DPVA AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTING NEWD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRIMARY TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0".  BULK OF PRECIP
LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY WITH
LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
WE LOSE SATURATION ALOFT.

IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-
LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A
NORTHWARD RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO
WORK WITH MODELS KEEPING THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
NEAR OR OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY INLAND
INTRUSION OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO INLAND AREAS...BUT BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER
SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE
POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH 60S ACROSS THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: IN THE MIDST OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL US RELOADING...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST
AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO
GENERATE A LITTLE PRECIP UNTIL THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS TO KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA. WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE EAST. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH THIS OVERCAST/BROKEN CLOUD
DECK...TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE 60S NW TO
70S SE ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A DRY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST WITH CAA IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY
NIGHT FROPA DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS THEN
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT BATCH OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING EASTWARD WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE. THE LATEST GFS AND EC HAVE TRENDED WETTER DURING THE TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING INLAND IN THE COOL
SECTOR. FOR NOW...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COASTAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO BELOW
NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...

FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH FEW-TO-
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SUCH THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A FEW NORTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE TEENS KNOTS WITH MIXING THIS MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER
LATER IN THE DAY WITH MANY CALM SURFACE WINDS TAKING PLACE AFTER
SUNSET.

BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
THROUGH MVFR TO IFR IN MOST PLACES AND CONTINUE SUB-VFR AT LEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH COULD REACH 40KT BY 2000FT
ALOFT IF THE GFS MODEL VERIFIES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY
TUESDAY WITH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER A LIGHTER SURFACE
WIND VEERING NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH LATE
MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI
LATE TUESDAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH WILL LOCATED THEN JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 210734
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BEHIND A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY SPREADS MOISTURE
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT ALMOST THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH COOLER...DRIER AIR GRADUALLY MOVING
SOUTH. MSAS SHOWED THE SURFACE DEW POINT GRADIENT TIGHTENING OVER
THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE AND SOON THIS DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN
PUSHING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FALLING FROM AROUND 10 TO THE TEENS DURING
THE DAY. THE 00Z 850MB ANALYSIS NOTED NOTICEABLE COOLING TO THE
NORTHWEST...FROM 2C AT KGSO AND -2C AT KRNK TO -11C AT KILN. 1000-
850MB THICKNESSES WILL RISE LITTLE IF AT ALL TODAY AND THE RESULT IS
AROUND 10F OR SO OF COOLING TODAY...DESPITE THE MANY TEMPERATURES IN
THE 30S AS OF THIS WRITING. SOME CIRRUS IN THE BASE OF THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH MAY BE NOTICED ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING...BUT THE BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL SUGGEST ENOUGH DRYING
ALOFT ALTHOUGH THE 300MB JET AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD THAT MUCH OF ANY
CIRRUS SHOULD BE ABSENT BY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE QUITE POSSIBLY
DUE TO SOME UPSTREAM ENHANCEMENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MOVING EAST BY THEN. THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS
A LITTLE TIGHTER THIS MORNING AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW GUSTS
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE WITH MIXING BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT REALLY LIGHTENS THE WINDS.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS FROM THE NAM AND
GFS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THIN CIRRUS AS THE BROAD RIDGE
AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL
DEPICTS SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE MAV AND MET MOS...CLEAR TO FEW
CLOUDS WHICH...UNDER A LIGHT WIND AND DRY SURFACE DEW POINTS...
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY TONIGHT. MAV AND MET
GUIDANCE ARE CLOSE AND TENDED TO STRAY COOLER ESPECIALLY FROM THE
TRIANGLE NORTH AND EAST WHERE ANY CIRRUS SHOULD BE EVEN THINNER AND
LESS NOTICEABLE. THINK SOME TEENS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF THE TRIANGLE. THE RECORD
LOWS AT KGSO AND KFAY APPEAR SAFE FOR SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL BE
CLOSE AT THE RELATIVELY WARM RECORD LOW AT KRDU. SATURDAY...AGAIN
WITH SOME MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS AROUND...1000-850MB THICKNESSES RISE
ABOUT 30M AND HIGHS SHOULD BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE HIGHS
EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT IS FORECAST BY THE NAM
AND GFS TO JUST BE MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z
SUNDAY. K INDICES ARE NEAR 0 OR NEGATIVE ON THE GFS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THE NAM ONLY INCREASES VALUES INTO THE TEENS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CLOSE TO 12Z SUNDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AND STABLE FOR
THE NIGHT...SAVE LATE AND MAINLY ON THE NAM WHERE THE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN A SHALLOW VOLUME INCREASES A LITTLE EARLIER SOUTHWEST.
QPF IS ESSENTIALLY ZERO IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS...WITH THE 0.01 LINE ON THE NAM EDGING EVER SO CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 12Z SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE VERY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST IF ANY CAN WORK THROUGH WHAT
WILL BE A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROBABLY BE
REACHED EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY
EARLY AND THEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN PARTICULAR SLOWING ANY FALL
AND WITH POSSIBLY A MINOR RISE IN TEMPERATURES LATE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH
DYNAMICS REMAINS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AS PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75"(2 SD ABOVE NORMAL)...LOOK
FOR POPS TO QUICKLY RAMP UP SW TO NE LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON VIA SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD
LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND FURTHER AUGMENTED BY DPVA AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTING NEWD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRIMARY TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0".  BULK OF PRECIP
LOOKS TO FALL OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY WITH
LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND/OR AREAS OF FOG THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
WE LOSE SATURATION ALOFT.

IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-
LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A
NORTHWARD RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO
WORK WITH MODELS KEEPING THE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
NEAR OR OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY INLAND
INTRUSION OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO INLAND AREAS...BUT BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER
SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE
POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WITH 60S ACROSS THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM FRIDAY...

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: IN THE MIDST OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL US RELOADING...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST
AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO
GENERATE A LITTLE PRECIP UNTIL THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT RECENT MODEL TRENDS TO KEEP THE BULK OF
PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA. WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE EAST. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH THIS OVERCAST/BROKEN CLOUD
DECK...TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL WARM INTO THE 60S NW TO
70S SE ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A DRY DAY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE STALLED FRONT EAST OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST WITH CAA IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY
NIGHT FROPA DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THERE IS THEN
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT BATCH OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING EASTWARD WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
ZONE. THE LATEST GFS AND EC HAVE TRENDED WETTER DURING THE TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY PERIOD...WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING INLAND IN THE COOL
SECTOR. FOR NOW...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COASTAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO BELOW
NORMAL AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN US.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...

FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH FEW-TO-
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SUCH THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A FEW NORTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE TEENS KNOTS WITH MIXING THIS MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER
LATER IN THE DAY WITH MANY CALM SURFACE WINDS TAKING PLACE AFTER
SUNSET.

BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
THROUGH MVFR TO IFR IN MOST PLACES AND CONTINUE SUB-VFR AT LEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH COULD REACH 40KT BY 2000FT
ALOFT IF THE GFS MODEL VERIFIES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY
TUESDAY WITH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER A LIGHTER SURFACE
WIND VEERING NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH LATE
MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI
LATE TUESDAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH WILL LOCATED THEN JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 210547
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1247 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BEHIND A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY SPREADS MOISTURE
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL NC AT 9 PM EXTENDING FROM
WARRENTON-RALEIGH-ALBEMARLE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SEWD...EXITING THE SE COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. LITTLE IN THE MANNER OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE INITIALLY OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHOULD START TO FEEL AFFECTS OF COLDER
AIR MASS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO
NEAR FREEZING SE APPEAR ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHWARD AND SETTLING OVER NC FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR AND THE WINDS TO RELAX SOME AS WELL AS THE
HIGH RIDGES IN. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL YIELD HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID 40S NORTH TO LOW
50S SOUTH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A DECREASE IN THICKNESSES...WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE LOWEST. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...VEERING
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

THE CORE OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. A STRONG MID-LEVEL
INVERSION SUGGEST AND VERY WEAK MIXING SUGGEST TEMPS WONT GET
ANYWHERE NEAR THEIR THICKNESS-CORRELATED VALUES...WITH GUIDANCE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SOUTHWEST.  HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN SATURDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY
RETURNING AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SC AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN NC SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING NC DRY THROUGH SUNRISE
SUNDAY.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER...LIKELY ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REALLY RAMPS
UP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM
TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES.  BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING IS NOT VERY LIKELY...THOUGH PRECIP
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLY SUNDAY WILL LIKELY STABILIZE THAT
AREA AND LEAD TO A IN-SITU WEDGE AIRMASS.  WE SHOULD THEN SEE RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 50-60KT
SOUTHERLY LLJ BRINGS AND A SFC/850MB WARM FRONT AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.  PW WILL WILL BE OVER 1.75 INCHES...2 SD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A DEEP WARM RAIN LAYER...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXIST ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.  MODELS
ALSO SHOW CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD COASTAL
CAROLINA...WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE QPF
FORECAST...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING AROUND AN INCH AREAWIDE.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY 1) MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES AND THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...AND 2) THE MAIN DYNAMIC
FORCING LIFTING WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  HOWEVER...BASED ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE LLJ/WARM ADVECTION...WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THE
MODELS ARE UNDERDOING INSTABILITY A BIT...ESPECIALLY ELEVATED WITH
CRUX OF THE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
(NEAR)SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WILL
LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY IN THE LOW-MID 50S IN THE WEDGE
AIRMASS TO LOWER 60S IN THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING...RISING WELL INTO
THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN INTO
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THE DEEP MOIST AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THERE IS A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ADDITIONAL ENERGY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND HOW THAT WILL EVOLVE.  THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING UP THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY AND SPITS OUT A LITTLE
QPF...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS AN ELONGATED...POSITIVELY TILED
TROUGH THAT FINALLY EJECTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL SHOW A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPS HEAD BACK BELOW NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...

FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH FEW-TO-
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SUCH THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A FEW NORTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE TEENS KNOTS WITH MIXING THIS MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER
LATER IN THE DAY WITH MANY CALM SURFACE WINDS TAKING PLACE AFTER
SUNSET.

BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
THROUGH MVFR TO IFR IN MOST PLACES AND CONTINUE SUB-VFR AT LEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH COULD REACH 40KT BY 2000FT
ALOFT IF THE GFS MODEL VERIFIES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY
TUESDAY WITH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER A LIGHTER SURFACE
WIND VEERING NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH LATE
MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI
LATE TUESDAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH WILL LOCATED THEN JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 210547
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1247 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BEHIND A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY SPREADS MOISTURE
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL NC AT 9 PM EXTENDING FROM
WARRENTON-RALEIGH-ALBEMARLE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SEWD...EXITING THE SE COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. LITTLE IN THE MANNER OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE INITIALLY OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHOULD START TO FEEL AFFECTS OF COLDER
AIR MASS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO
NEAR FREEZING SE APPEAR ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHWARD AND SETTLING OVER NC FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR AND THE WINDS TO RELAX SOME AS WELL AS THE
HIGH RIDGES IN. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL YIELD HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID 40S NORTH TO LOW
50S SOUTH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A DECREASE IN THICKNESSES...WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE LOWEST. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...VEERING
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

THE CORE OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. A STRONG MID-LEVEL
INVERSION SUGGEST AND VERY WEAK MIXING SUGGEST TEMPS WONT GET
ANYWHERE NEAR THEIR THICKNESS-CORRELATED VALUES...WITH GUIDANCE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SOUTHWEST.  HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN SATURDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY
RETURNING AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SC AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN NC SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING NC DRY THROUGH SUNRISE
SUNDAY.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER...LIKELY ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REALLY RAMPS
UP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM
TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES.  BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING IS NOT VERY LIKELY...THOUGH PRECIP
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLY SUNDAY WILL LIKELY STABILIZE THAT
AREA AND LEAD TO A IN-SITU WEDGE AIRMASS.  WE SHOULD THEN SEE RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 50-60KT
SOUTHERLY LLJ BRINGS AND A SFC/850MB WARM FRONT AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.  PW WILL WILL BE OVER 1.75 INCHES...2 SD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A DEEP WARM RAIN LAYER...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXIST ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.  MODELS
ALSO SHOW CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD COASTAL
CAROLINA...WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE QPF
FORECAST...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING AROUND AN INCH AREAWIDE.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY 1) MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES AND THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...AND 2) THE MAIN DYNAMIC
FORCING LIFTING WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  HOWEVER...BASED ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE LLJ/WARM ADVECTION...WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THE
MODELS ARE UNDERDOING INSTABILITY A BIT...ESPECIALLY ELEVATED WITH
CRUX OF THE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
(NEAR)SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WILL
LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY IN THE LOW-MID 50S IN THE WEDGE
AIRMASS TO LOWER 60S IN THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING...RISING WELL INTO
THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN INTO
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THE DEEP MOIST AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THERE IS A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ADDITIONAL ENERGY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND HOW THAT WILL EVOLVE.  THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING UP THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY AND SPITS OUT A LITTLE
QPF...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS AN ELONGATED...POSITIVELY TILED
TROUGH THAT FINALLY EJECTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL SHOW A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPS HEAD BACK BELOW NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...

FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH FEW-TO-
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SUCH THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A FEW NORTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE TEENS KNOTS WITH MIXING THIS MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER
LATER IN THE DAY WITH MANY CALM SURFACE WINDS TAKING PLACE AFTER
SUNSET.

BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
THROUGH MVFR TO IFR IN MOST PLACES AND CONTINUE SUB-VFR AT LEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH COULD REACH 40KT BY 2000FT
ALOFT IF THE GFS MODEL VERIFIES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY
TUESDAY WITH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER A LIGHTER SURFACE
WIND VEERING NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH LATE
MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI
LATE TUESDAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH WILL LOCATED THEN JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 210547
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1247 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BEHIND A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY SPREADS MOISTURE
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL NC AT 9 PM EXTENDING FROM
WARRENTON-RALEIGH-ALBEMARLE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SEWD...EXITING THE SE COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. LITTLE IN THE MANNER OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE INITIALLY OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHOULD START TO FEEL AFFECTS OF COLDER
AIR MASS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO
NEAR FREEZING SE APPEAR ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHWARD AND SETTLING OVER NC FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR AND THE WINDS TO RELAX SOME AS WELL AS THE
HIGH RIDGES IN. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL YIELD HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID 40S NORTH TO LOW
50S SOUTH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A DECREASE IN THICKNESSES...WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE LOWEST. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...VEERING
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

THE CORE OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. A STRONG MID-LEVEL
INVERSION SUGGEST AND VERY WEAK MIXING SUGGEST TEMPS WONT GET
ANYWHERE NEAR THEIR THICKNESS-CORRELATED VALUES...WITH GUIDANCE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SOUTHWEST.  HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN SATURDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY
RETURNING AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SC AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN NC SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING NC DRY THROUGH SUNRISE
SUNDAY.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER...LIKELY ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REALLY RAMPS
UP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM
TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES.  BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING IS NOT VERY LIKELY...THOUGH PRECIP
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLY SUNDAY WILL LIKELY STABILIZE THAT
AREA AND LEAD TO A IN-SITU WEDGE AIRMASS.  WE SHOULD THEN SEE RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 50-60KT
SOUTHERLY LLJ BRINGS AND A SFC/850MB WARM FRONT AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.  PW WILL WILL BE OVER 1.75 INCHES...2 SD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A DEEP WARM RAIN LAYER...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXIST ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.  MODELS
ALSO SHOW CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD COASTAL
CAROLINA...WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE QPF
FORECAST...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING AROUND AN INCH AREAWIDE.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY 1) MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES AND THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...AND 2) THE MAIN DYNAMIC
FORCING LIFTING WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  HOWEVER...BASED ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE LLJ/WARM ADVECTION...WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THE
MODELS ARE UNDERDOING INSTABILITY A BIT...ESPECIALLY ELEVATED WITH
CRUX OF THE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
(NEAR)SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WILL
LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY IN THE LOW-MID 50S IN THE WEDGE
AIRMASS TO LOWER 60S IN THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING...RISING WELL INTO
THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN INTO
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THE DEEP MOIST AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THERE IS A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ADDITIONAL ENERGY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND HOW THAT WILL EVOLVE.  THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING UP THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY AND SPITS OUT A LITTLE
QPF...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS AN ELONGATED...POSITIVELY TILED
TROUGH THAT FINALLY EJECTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL SHOW A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPS HEAD BACK BELOW NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...

FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH FEW-TO-
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SUCH THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A FEW NORTHERLY GUSTS INTO THE TEENS KNOTS WITH MIXING THIS MORNING.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD...WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER
LATER IN THE DAY WITH MANY CALM SURFACE WINDS TAKING PLACE AFTER
SUNSET.

BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE
THROUGH MVFR TO IFR IN MOST PLACES AND CONTINUE SUB-VFR AT LEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
MONDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WHICH COULD REACH 40KT BY 2000FT
ALOFT IF THE GFS MODEL VERIFIES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY
TUESDAY WITH SOME AREAS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER A LIGHTER SURFACE
WIND VEERING NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH LATE
MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI
LATE TUESDAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH WILL LOCATED THEN JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 210300
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CAUSING MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL NC AT 9 PM EXTENDING FROM
WARRENTON-RALEIGH-ALBEMARLE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SEWD...EXITING THE SE COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. LITTLE IN THE MANNER OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE INITIALLY OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHOULD START TO FEEL AFFECTS OF COLDER
AIR MASS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO
NEAR FREEZING SE APPEAR ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHWARD AND SETTLING OVER NC FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR AND THE WINDS TO RELAX SOME AS WELL AS THE
HIGH RIDGES IN. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL YIELD HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID 40S NORTH TO LOW
50S SOUTH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A DECREASE IN THICKNESSES...WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE LOWEST. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...VEERING
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

THE CORE OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. A STRONG MID-LEVEL
INVERSION SUGGEST AND VERY WEAK MIXING SUGGEST TEMPS WONT GET
ANYWHERE NEAR THEIR THICKNESS-CORRELATED VALUES...WITH GUIDANCE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SOUTHWEST.  HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN SATURDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY
RETURNING AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SC AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN NC SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING NC DRY THROUGH SUNRISE
SUNDAY.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER...LIKELY ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REALLY RAMPS
UP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM
TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES.  BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING IS NOT VERY LIKELY...THOUGH PRECIP
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLY SUNDAY WILL LIKELY STABILIZE THAT
AREA AND LEAD TO A IN-SITU WEDGE AIRMASS.  WE SHOULD THEN SEE RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 50-60KT
SOUTHERLY LLJ BRINGS AND A SFC/850MB WARM FRONT AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.  PW WILL WILL BE OVER 1.75 INCHES...2 SD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A DEEP WARM RAIN LAYER...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXIST ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.  MODELS
ALSO SHOW CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD COASTAL
CAROLINA...WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE QPF
FORECAST...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING AROUND AN INCH AREAWIDE.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY 1) MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES AND THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...AND 2) THE MAIN DYNAMIC
FORCING LIFTING WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  HOWEVER...BASED ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE LLJ/WARM ADVECTION...WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THE
MODELS ARE UNDERDOING INSTABILITY A BIT...ESPECIALLY ELEVATED WITH
CRUX OF THE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
(NEAR)SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WILL
LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY IN THE LOW-MID 50S IN THE WEDGE
AIRMASS TO LOWER 60S IN THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING...RISING WELL INTO
THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN INTO
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THE DEEP MOIST AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THERE IS A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ADDITIONAL ENERGY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND HOW THAT WILL EVOLVE.  THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING UP THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY AND SPITS OUT A LITTLE
QPF...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS AN ELONGATED...POSITIVELY TILED
TROUGH THAT FINALLY EJECTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL SHOW A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPS HEAD BACK BELOW NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT AND SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS (HIGH CONFIDENCE). LIGHT WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERN OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 05/06 KTS OR LESS...
WITH WIND SPEED GENERALLY ONLY INCREASING TO 06 TO 10 KTS BY MID
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 15-17 KTS AT KRDU/KFAY/KRWI FRIDAY MORNING... BEFORE THE
FASTER FLOW ALOFT PUSHES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...YIELDING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN BELOW VFR UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...BSD/KC
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 210300
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CAUSING MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL NC AT 9 PM EXTENDING FROM
WARRENTON-RALEIGH-ALBEMARLE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SEWD...EXITING THE SE COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. LITTLE IN THE MANNER OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE INITIALLY OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHOULD START TO FEEL AFFECTS OF COLDER
AIR MASS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO
NEAR FREEZING SE APPEAR ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHWARD AND SETTLING OVER NC FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR AND THE WINDS TO RELAX SOME AS WELL AS THE
HIGH RIDGES IN. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL YIELD HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID 40S NORTH TO LOW
50S SOUTH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A DECREASE IN THICKNESSES...WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE LOWEST. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...VEERING
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

THE CORE OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. A STRONG MID-LEVEL
INVERSION SUGGEST AND VERY WEAK MIXING SUGGEST TEMPS WONT GET
ANYWHERE NEAR THEIR THICKNESS-CORRELATED VALUES...WITH GUIDANCE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SOUTHWEST.  HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN SATURDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY
RETURNING AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SC AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN NC SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING NC DRY THROUGH SUNRISE
SUNDAY.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER...LIKELY ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REALLY RAMPS
UP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM
TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES.  BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING IS NOT VERY LIKELY...THOUGH PRECIP
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLY SUNDAY WILL LIKELY STABILIZE THAT
AREA AND LEAD TO A IN-SITU WEDGE AIRMASS.  WE SHOULD THEN SEE RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 50-60KT
SOUTHERLY LLJ BRINGS AND A SFC/850MB WARM FRONT AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.  PW WILL WILL BE OVER 1.75 INCHES...2 SD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A DEEP WARM RAIN LAYER...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXIST ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.  MODELS
ALSO SHOW CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD COASTAL
CAROLINA...WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE QPF
FORECAST...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING AROUND AN INCH AREAWIDE.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY 1) MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES AND THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...AND 2) THE MAIN DYNAMIC
FORCING LIFTING WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  HOWEVER...BASED ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE LLJ/WARM ADVECTION...WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THE
MODELS ARE UNDERDOING INSTABILITY A BIT...ESPECIALLY ELEVATED WITH
CRUX OF THE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
(NEAR)SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WILL
LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY IN THE LOW-MID 50S IN THE WEDGE
AIRMASS TO LOWER 60S IN THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING...RISING WELL INTO
THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN INTO
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THE DEEP MOIST AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THERE IS A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ADDITIONAL ENERGY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND HOW THAT WILL EVOLVE.  THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING UP THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY AND SPITS OUT A LITTLE
QPF...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS AN ELONGATED...POSITIVELY TILED
TROUGH THAT FINALLY EJECTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL SHOW A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPS HEAD BACK BELOW NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT AND SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS (HIGH CONFIDENCE). LIGHT WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERN OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 05/06 KTS OR LESS...
WITH WIND SPEED GENERALLY ONLY INCREASING TO 06 TO 10 KTS BY MID
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 15-17 KTS AT KRDU/KFAY/KRWI FRIDAY MORNING... BEFORE THE
FASTER FLOW ALOFT PUSHES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...YIELDING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN BELOW VFR UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...BSD/KC
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 210300
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CAUSING MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL NC AT 9 PM EXTENDING FROM
WARRENTON-RALEIGH-ALBEMARLE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SEWD...EXITING THE SE COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. LITTLE IN THE MANNER OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE INITIALLY OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHOULD START TO FEEL AFFECTS OF COLDER
AIR MASS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FORECAST MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO
NEAR FREEZING SE APPEAR ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHWARD AND SETTLING OVER NC FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR AND THE WINDS TO RELAX SOME AS WELL AS THE
HIGH RIDGES IN. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL YIELD HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID 40S NORTH TO LOW
50S SOUTH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A DECREASE IN THICKNESSES...WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE LOWEST. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...VEERING
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

THE CORE OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. A STRONG MID-LEVEL
INVERSION SUGGEST AND VERY WEAK MIXING SUGGEST TEMPS WONT GET
ANYWHERE NEAR THEIR THICKNESS-CORRELATED VALUES...WITH GUIDANCE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SOUTHWEST.  HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN SATURDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY
RETURNING AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SC AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN NC SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING NC DRY THROUGH SUNRISE
SUNDAY.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER...LIKELY ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REALLY RAMPS
UP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM
TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES.  BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING IS NOT VERY LIKELY...THOUGH PRECIP
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLY SUNDAY WILL LIKELY STABILIZE THAT
AREA AND LEAD TO A IN-SITU WEDGE AIRMASS.  WE SHOULD THEN SEE RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 50-60KT
SOUTHERLY LLJ BRINGS AND A SFC/850MB WARM FRONT AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.  PW WILL WILL BE OVER 1.75 INCHES...2 SD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A DEEP WARM RAIN LAYER...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXIST ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.  MODELS
ALSO SHOW CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD COASTAL
CAROLINA...WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE QPF
FORECAST...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING AROUND AN INCH AREAWIDE.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY 1) MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES AND THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...AND 2) THE MAIN DYNAMIC
FORCING LIFTING WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  HOWEVER...BASED ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE LLJ/WARM ADVECTION...WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THE
MODELS ARE UNDERDOING INSTABILITY A BIT...ESPECIALLY ELEVATED WITH
CRUX OF THE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
(NEAR)SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WILL
LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY IN THE LOW-MID 50S IN THE WEDGE
AIRMASS TO LOWER 60S IN THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING...RISING WELL INTO
THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN INTO
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THE DEEP MOIST AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THERE IS A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ADDITIONAL ENERGY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND HOW THAT WILL EVOLVE.  THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING UP THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY AND SPITS OUT A LITTLE
QPF...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS AN ELONGATED...POSITIVELY TILED
TROUGH THAT FINALLY EJECTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL SHOW A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPS HEAD BACK BELOW NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT AND SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS (HIGH CONFIDENCE). LIGHT WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERN OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 05/06 KTS OR LESS...
WITH WIND SPEED GENERALLY ONLY INCREASING TO 06 TO 10 KTS BY MID
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 15-17 KTS AT KRDU/KFAY/KRWI FRIDAY MORNING... BEFORE THE
FASTER FLOW ALOFT PUSHES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...YIELDING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN BELOW VFR UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...BSD/KC
CLIMATE...RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 210007
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
707 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CAUSING MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER EASTERN CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE ENE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS
AHEAD OF IT...AND BRING WITH IT A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT THEN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD ABATE AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SOUTH...BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHWARD AND SETTLING OVER NC FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR AND THE WINDS TO RELAX SOME AS WELL AS THE
HIGH RIDGES IN. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL YIELD HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID 40S NORTH TO LOW
50S SOUTH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A DECREASE IN THICKNESSES...WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE LOWEST. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...VEERING
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

THE CORE OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. A STRONG MID-LEVEL
INVERSION SUGGEST AND VERY WEAK MIXING SUGGEST TEMPS WONT GET
ANYWHERE NEAR THEIR THICKNESS-CORRELATED VALUES...WITH GUIDANCE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SOUTHWEST.  HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN SATURDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY
RETURNING AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SC AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN NC SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING NC DRY THROUGH SUNRISE
SUNDAY.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER...LIKELY ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REALLY RAMPS
UP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM
TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES.  BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING IS NOT VERY LIKELY...THOUGH PRECIP
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLY SUNDAY WILL LIKELY STABILIZE THAT
AREA AND LEAD TO A IN-SITU WEDGE AIRMASS.  WE SHOULD THEN SEE RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 50-60KT
SOUTHERLY LLJ BRINGS AND A SFC/850MB WARM FRONT AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.  PW WILL WILL BE OVER 1.75 INCHES...2 SD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A DEEP WARM RAIN LAYER...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXIST ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.  MODELS
ALSO SHOW CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD COASTAL
CAROLINA...WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE QPF
FORECAST...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING AROUND AN INCH AREAWIDE.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY 1) MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES AND THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...AND 2) THE MAIN DYNAMIC
FORCING LIFTING WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  HOWEVER...BASED ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE LLJ/WARM ADVECTION...WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THE
MODELS ARE UNDERDOING INSTABILITY A BIT...ESPECIALLY ELEVATED WITH
CRUX OF THE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
(NEAR)SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WILL
LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY IN THE LOW-MID 50S IN THE WEDGE
AIRMASS TO LOWER 60S IN THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING...RISING WELL INTO
THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN INTO
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THE DEEP MOIST AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THERE IS A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ADDITIONAL ENERGY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND HOW THAT WILL EVOLVE.  THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING UP THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY AND SPITS OUT A LITTLE
QPF...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS AN ELONGATED...POSITIVELY TILED
TROUGH THAT FINALLY EJECTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL SHOW A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPS HEAD BACK BELOW NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT AND SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS (HIGH CONFIDENCE). LIGHT WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERN OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 05/06 KTS OR LESS...
WITH WIND SPEED GENERALLY ONLY INCREASING TO 06 TO 10 KTS BY MID
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 15-17 KTS AT KRDU/KFAY/KRWI FRIDAY MORNING... BEFORE THE
FASTER FLOW ALOFT PUSHES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...YIELDING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN BELOW VFR UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...BSD/KC
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 210007
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
707 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CAUSING MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER EASTERN CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE ENE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS
AHEAD OF IT...AND BRING WITH IT A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT THEN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD ABATE AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SOUTH...BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHWARD AND SETTLING OVER NC FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR AND THE WINDS TO RELAX SOME AS WELL AS THE
HIGH RIDGES IN. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL YIELD HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID 40S NORTH TO LOW
50S SOUTH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A DECREASE IN THICKNESSES...WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE LOWEST. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...VEERING
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

THE CORE OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. A STRONG MID-LEVEL
INVERSION SUGGEST AND VERY WEAK MIXING SUGGEST TEMPS WONT GET
ANYWHERE NEAR THEIR THICKNESS-CORRELATED VALUES...WITH GUIDANCE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SOUTHWEST.  HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN SATURDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY
RETURNING AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SC AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN NC SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING NC DRY THROUGH SUNRISE
SUNDAY.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER...LIKELY ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REALLY RAMPS
UP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM
TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES.  BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING IS NOT VERY LIKELY...THOUGH PRECIP
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLY SUNDAY WILL LIKELY STABILIZE THAT
AREA AND LEAD TO A IN-SITU WEDGE AIRMASS.  WE SHOULD THEN SEE RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 50-60KT
SOUTHERLY LLJ BRINGS AND A SFC/850MB WARM FRONT AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.  PW WILL WILL BE OVER 1.75 INCHES...2 SD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A DEEP WARM RAIN LAYER...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXIST ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.  MODELS
ALSO SHOW CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD COASTAL
CAROLINA...WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE QPF
FORECAST...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING AROUND AN INCH AREAWIDE.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY 1) MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES AND THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...AND 2) THE MAIN DYNAMIC
FORCING LIFTING WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  HOWEVER...BASED ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE LLJ/WARM ADVECTION...WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THE
MODELS ARE UNDERDOING INSTABILITY A BIT...ESPECIALLY ELEVATED WITH
CRUX OF THE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
(NEAR)SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WILL
LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY IN THE LOW-MID 50S IN THE WEDGE
AIRMASS TO LOWER 60S IN THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING...RISING WELL INTO
THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN INTO
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THE DEEP MOIST AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THERE IS A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ADDITIONAL ENERGY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND HOW THAT WILL EVOLVE.  THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING UP THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY AND SPITS OUT A LITTLE
QPF...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS AN ELONGATED...POSITIVELY TILED
TROUGH THAT FINALLY EJECTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL SHOW A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPS HEAD BACK BELOW NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT AND SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS (HIGH CONFIDENCE). LIGHT WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERN OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 05/06 KTS OR LESS...
WITH WIND SPEED GENERALLY ONLY INCREASING TO 06 TO 10 KTS BY MID
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 15-17 KTS AT KRDU/KFAY/KRWI FRIDAY MORNING... BEFORE THE
FASTER FLOW ALOFT PUSHES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...YIELDING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN BELOW VFR UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...BSD/KC
CLIMATE...RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 210007
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
707 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CAUSING MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER EASTERN CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE ENE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS
AHEAD OF IT...AND BRING WITH IT A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT THEN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD ABATE AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SOUTH...BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHWARD AND SETTLING OVER NC FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR AND THE WINDS TO RELAX SOME AS WELL AS THE
HIGH RIDGES IN. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL YIELD HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID 40S NORTH TO LOW
50S SOUTH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A DECREASE IN THICKNESSES...WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE LOWEST. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...VEERING
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

THE CORE OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. A STRONG MID-LEVEL
INVERSION SUGGEST AND VERY WEAK MIXING SUGGEST TEMPS WONT GET
ANYWHERE NEAR THEIR THICKNESS-CORRELATED VALUES...WITH GUIDANCE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SOUTHWEST.  HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN SATURDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY
RETURNING AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SC AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN NC SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING NC DRY THROUGH SUNRISE
SUNDAY.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER...LIKELY ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REALLY RAMPS
UP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM
TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES.  BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING IS NOT VERY LIKELY...THOUGH PRECIP
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLY SUNDAY WILL LIKELY STABILIZE THAT
AREA AND LEAD TO A IN-SITU WEDGE AIRMASS.  WE SHOULD THEN SEE RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 50-60KT
SOUTHERLY LLJ BRINGS AND A SFC/850MB WARM FRONT AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.  PW WILL WILL BE OVER 1.75 INCHES...2 SD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A DEEP WARM RAIN LAYER...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXIST ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.  MODELS
ALSO SHOW CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD COASTAL
CAROLINA...WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE QPF
FORECAST...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING AROUND AN INCH AREAWIDE.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY 1) MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES AND THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...AND 2) THE MAIN DYNAMIC
FORCING LIFTING WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  HOWEVER...BASED ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE LLJ/WARM ADVECTION...WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THE
MODELS ARE UNDERDOING INSTABILITY A BIT...ESPECIALLY ELEVATED WITH
CRUX OF THE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
(NEAR)SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WILL
LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY IN THE LOW-MID 50S IN THE WEDGE
AIRMASS TO LOWER 60S IN THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING...RISING WELL INTO
THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN INTO
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THE DEEP MOIST AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THERE IS A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ADDITIONAL ENERGY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND HOW THAT WILL EVOLVE.  THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING UP THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY AND SPITS OUT A LITTLE
QPF...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS AN ELONGATED...POSITIVELY TILED
TROUGH THAT FINALLY EJECTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL SHOW A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPS HEAD BACK BELOW NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT AND SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS (HIGH CONFIDENCE). LIGHT WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERN OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 05/06 KTS OR LESS...
WITH WIND SPEED GENERALLY ONLY INCREASING TO 06 TO 10 KTS BY MID
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 15-17 KTS AT KRDU/KFAY/KRWI FRIDAY MORNING... BEFORE THE
FASTER FLOW ALOFT PUSHES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...YIELDING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN BELOW VFR UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...BSD/KC
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 202125
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CAUSING MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER EASTERN CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE ENE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS
AHEAD OF IT...AND BRING WITH IT A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT THEN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD ABATE AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SOUTH...BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHWARD AND SETTLING OVER NC FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR AND THE WINDS TO RELAX SOME AS WELL AS THE
HIGH RIDGES IN. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL YIELD HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID 40S NORTH TO LOW
50S SOUTH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A DECREASE IN THICKNESSES...WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE LOWEST. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...VEERING
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. -KC

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

THE CORE OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EAST OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. A STRONG MID-LEVEL
INVERSION SUGGEST AND VERY WEAK MIXING SUGGEST TEMPS WONT GET
ANYWHERE NEAR THEIR THICKNESS-CORRELATED VALUES...WITH GUIDANCE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SOUTHWEST.  HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN SATURDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY
RETURNING AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SC AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN NC SATURDAY NIGHT...LEAVING NC DRY THROUGH SUNRISE
SUNDAY.  LOWS WILL BE MILDER...LIKELY ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REALLY RAMPS
UP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM
TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES.  BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING IS NOT VERY LIKELY...THOUGH PRECIP
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLY SUNDAY WILL LIKELY STABILIZE THAT
AREA AND LEAD TO A IN-SITU WEDGE AIRMASS.  WE SHOULD THEN SEE RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 50-60KT
SOUTHERLY LLJ BRINGS AND A SFC/850MB WARM FRONT AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.  PW WILL WILL BE OVER 1.75 INCHES...2 SD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A DEEP WARM RAIN LAYER...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXIST ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.  MODELS
ALSO SHOW CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD COASTAL
CAROLINA...WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE QPF
FORECAST...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING AROUND AN INCH AREAWIDE.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY 1) MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES AND THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...AND 2) THE MAIN DYNAMIC
FORCING LIFTING WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  HOWEVER...BASED ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE LLJ/WARM ADVECTION...WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THE
MODELS ARE UNDERDOING INSTABILITY A BIT...ESPECIALLY ELEVATED WITH
CRUX OF THE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
(NEAR)SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WILL
LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY IN THE LOW-MID 50S IN THE WEDGE
AIRMASS TO LOWER 60S IN THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING...RISING WELL INTO
THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN INTO
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THE DEEP MOIST AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THERE IS A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ADDITIONAL ENERGY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND HOW THAT WILL EVOLVE.  THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING UP THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY AND SPITS OUT A LITTLE
QPF...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS AN ELONGATED...POSITIVELY TILED
TROUGH THAT FINALLY EJECTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL SHOW A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPS HEAD BACK BELOW NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1244 PM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES MAY GIVE WAY TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
THIS AFT/EVE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS
ABATING AFTER SUNSET. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE
AREA...WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...YIELDING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN BELOW VFR UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...KC
CLIMATE...RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 202021
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CAUSING MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER EASTERN CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE ENE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS
AHEAD OF IT...AND BRING WITH IT A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT THEN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD ABATE AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SOUTH...BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHWARD AND SETTLING OVER NC FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR AND THE WINDS TO RELAX SOME AS WELL AS THE
HIGH RIDGES IN. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL YIELD HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID 40S NORTH TO LOW
50S SOUTH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A DECREASE IN THICKNESSES...WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE LOWEST. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...VEERING
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. -KC

AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST US WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN INTO THE LOWER/CENTRAL MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG 1035MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NC TO START THE DAY WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH AN EAST-WEST DRY AIR RIDGE LINGERING
UNDERNEATH WEAK/MINOR HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. MODEL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...THOUGH STRENGTHENING S/SE LOW-LEVEL ATLANTIC MARITIME FEED
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAPID MOISTURE RECOVERY AND
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS.  DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO 950-970MB
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS OF 50 TO 55. NOT NEARLY AS COLD SATURDAY NIGHT
COMPARED TO FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING OWING TO THICKENING CLOUD
COVER AND RETURN FLOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S TO UPPER 30S.  -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

A SHALLOW BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.   THE CORE
OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT
EAST OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. A STRONG MID-LEVEL INVERSION SUGGEST
AND VERY WEAK MIXING SUGGEST TEMPS WONT GET ANYWHERE NEAR THEIR
THICKNESS-CORRELATED VALUES...WITH GUIDANCE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S
NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SOUTHWEST.  HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN
SATURDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNING AROUND THE
OFFSHORE HIGH.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SC AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN NC SATURDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING NC DRY THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.  LOWS WILL BE
MILDER...LIKELY ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REALLY RAMPS
UP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM
TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES.  BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING IS NOT VERY LIKELY...THOUGH PRECIP
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLY SUNDAY WILL LIKELY STABILIZE THAT
AREA AND LEAD TO A IN-SITU WEDGE AIRMASS.  WE SHOULD THEN SEE RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 50-60KT
SOUTHERLY LLJ BRINGS AND A SFC/850MB WARM FRONT AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.  PW WILL WILL BE OVER 1.75 INCHES...2 SD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A DEEP WARM RAIN LAYER...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXIST ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.  MODELS
ALSO SHOW CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD COASTAL
CAROLINA...WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE QPF
FORECAST...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING AROUND AN INCH AREAWIDE.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY 1) MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES AND THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...AND 2) THE MAIN DYNAMIC
FORCING LIFTING WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  HOWEVER...BASED ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE LLJ/WARM ADVECTION...WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THE
MODELS ARE UNDERDOING INSTABILITY A BIT...ESPECIALLY ELEVATED WITH
CRUX OF THE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
(NEAR)SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WILL
LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY IN THE LOW-MID 50S IN THE WEDGE
AIRMASS TO LOWER 60S IN THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING...RISING WELL INTO
THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN INTO
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THE DEEP MOIST AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THERE IS A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ADDITIONAL ENERGY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND HOW THAT WILL EVOLVE.  THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING UP THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY AND SPITS OUT A LITTLE
QPF...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS AN ELONGATED...POSITIVELY TILED
TROUGH THAT FINALLY EJECTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL SHOW A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPS HEAD BACK BELOW NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1244 PM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES MAY GIVE WAY TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
THIS AFT/EVE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS
ABATING AFTER SUNSET. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE
AREA...WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...YIELDING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN BELOW VFR UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...KC
CLIMATE...RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 202021
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
320 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CAUSING MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER EASTERN CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE ENE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS
AHEAD OF IT...AND BRING WITH IT A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT THEN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD ABATE AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SOUTH...BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHWARD AND SETTLING OVER NC FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR AND THE WINDS TO RELAX SOME AS WELL AS THE
HIGH RIDGES IN. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL YIELD HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID 40S NORTH TO LOW
50S SOUTH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A DECREASE IN THICKNESSES...WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE LOWEST. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...VEERING
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. -KC

AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST US WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN INTO THE LOWER/CENTRAL MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG 1035MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NC TO START THE DAY WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH AN EAST-WEST DRY AIR RIDGE LINGERING
UNDERNEATH WEAK/MINOR HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. MODEL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...THOUGH STRENGTHENING S/SE LOW-LEVEL ATLANTIC MARITIME FEED
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAPID MOISTURE RECOVERY AND
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS.  DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO 950-970MB
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS OF 50 TO 55. NOT NEARLY AS COLD SATURDAY NIGHT
COMPARED TO FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING OWING TO THICKENING CLOUD
COVER AND RETURN FLOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S TO UPPER 30S.  -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

A SHALLOW BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.   THE CORE
OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT
EAST OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. A STRONG MID-LEVEL INVERSION SUGGEST
AND VERY WEAK MIXING SUGGEST TEMPS WONT GET ANYWHERE NEAR THEIR
THICKNESS-CORRELATED VALUES...WITH GUIDANCE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S
NORTHEAST TO MID 50S SOUTHWEST.  HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO POUR IN
SATURDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNING AROUND THE
OFFSHORE HIGH.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS SC AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN NC SATURDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING NC DRY THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY.  LOWS WILL BE
MILDER...LIKELY ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REALLY RAMPS
UP SUNDAY BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING FROM
TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES.  BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING IS NOT VERY LIKELY...THOUGH PRECIP
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLY SUNDAY WILL LIKELY STABILIZE THAT
AREA AND LEAD TO A IN-SITU WEDGE AIRMASS.  WE SHOULD THEN SEE RAIN
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 50-60KT
SOUTHERLY LLJ BRINGS AND A SFC/850MB WARM FRONT AND STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.  PW WILL WILL BE OVER 1.75 INCHES...2 SD
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A DEEP WARM RAIN LAYER...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY EXIST ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.  MODELS
ALSO SHOW CONVECTION MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD COASTAL
CAROLINA...WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE QPF
FORECAST...WITH MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING AROUND AN INCH AREAWIDE.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY 1) MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES AND THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...AND 2) THE MAIN DYNAMIC
FORCING LIFTING WELL WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  HOWEVER...BASED ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE LLJ/WARM ADVECTION...WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THE
MODELS ARE UNDERDOING INSTABILITY A BIT...ESPECIALLY ELEVATED WITH
CRUX OF THE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
(NEAR)SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...AND IF THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WILL
LEAVE THUNDER OUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY IN THE LOW-MID 50S IN THE WEDGE
AIRMASS TO LOWER 60S IN THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING...RISING WELL INTO
THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THEN INTO
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... THE DEEP MOIST AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TO
THE COAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THERE IS A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ADDITIONAL ENERGY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND HOW THAT WILL EVOLVE.  THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING UP THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY AND SPITS OUT A LITTLE
QPF...WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS AN ELONGATED...POSITIVELY TILED
TROUGH THAT FINALLY EJECTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL SHOW A SLOW
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPS HEAD BACK BELOW NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1244 PM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES MAY GIVE WAY TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
THIS AFT/EVE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS
ABATING AFTER SUNSET. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE
AREA...WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...YIELDING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN BELOW VFR UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...KC
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 201927
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
227 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CAUSING MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER EASTERN CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE ENE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS
AHEAD OF IT...AND BRING WITH IT A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT THEN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD ABATE AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SOUTH...BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHWARD AND SETTLING OVER NC FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR AND THE WINDS TO RELAX SOME AS WELL AS THE
HIGH RIDGES IN. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL YIELD HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID 40S NORTH TO LOW
50S SOUTH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A DECREASE IN THICKNESSES...WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE LOWEST. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...VEERING
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. -KC

AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST US WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN INTO THE LOWER/CENTRAL MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG 1035MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NC TO START THE DAY WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH AN EAST-WEST DRY AIR RIDGE LINGERING
UNDERNEATH WEAK/MINOR HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. MODEL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...THOUGH STRENGTHENING S/SE LOW-LEVEL ATLANTIC MARITIME FEED
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAPID MOISTURE RECOVERY AND
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS.  DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO 950-970MB
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS OF 50 TO 55. NOT NEARLY AS COLD SATURDAY NIGHT
COMPARED TO FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING OWING TO THICKENING CLOUD
COVER AND RETURN FLOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S TO UPPER 30S.  -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH DYNAMICS REMAIN WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT
EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-
SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR POPS TO QUICKLY
RAMP UP SW TO NE SUNDAY MORNING-MIDDAY WITH A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0". IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-LEVEL JET
COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A NORTHWARD
RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO WORK WITH
MODELS SUGGESTING VERY WEAK INSTABILITY OF 200-300 J/KG OF ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA...LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW AND CONFINED TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 50S NW TO UPPER 60S SE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL RESULT IN A LULL
IN RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. WITH CENTRAL NC IN THE WARM
SECTOR...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER/MID 70S
ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DELAYED UNTIL
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1244 PM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES MAY GIVE WAY TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
THIS AFT/EVE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS
ABATING AFTER SUNSET. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE
AREA...WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...YIELDING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN BELOW VFR UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KC
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 201927
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
227 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CAUSING MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER EASTERN CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE ENE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS
AHEAD OF IT...AND BRING WITH IT A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT THEN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD ABATE AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SOUTH...BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHWARD AND SETTLING OVER NC FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR AND THE WINDS TO RELAX SOME AS WELL AS THE
HIGH RIDGES IN. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL YIELD HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID 40S NORTH TO LOW
50S SOUTH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A DECREASE IN THICKNESSES...WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE LOWEST. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...VEERING
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. -KC

AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST US WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN INTO THE LOWER/CENTRAL MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG 1035MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NC TO START THE DAY WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH AN EAST-WEST DRY AIR RIDGE LINGERING
UNDERNEATH WEAK/MINOR HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. MODEL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...THOUGH STRENGTHENING S/SE LOW-LEVEL ATLANTIC MARITIME FEED
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAPID MOISTURE RECOVERY AND
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS.  DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO 950-970MB
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS OF 50 TO 55. NOT NEARLY AS COLD SATURDAY NIGHT
COMPARED TO FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING OWING TO THICKENING CLOUD
COVER AND RETURN FLOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S TO UPPER 30S.  -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH DYNAMICS REMAIN WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT
EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-
SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR POPS TO QUICKLY
RAMP UP SW TO NE SUNDAY MORNING-MIDDAY WITH A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0". IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-LEVEL JET
COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A NORTHWARD
RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO WORK WITH
MODELS SUGGESTING VERY WEAK INSTABILITY OF 200-300 J/KG OF ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA...LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW AND CONFINED TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 50S NW TO UPPER 60S SE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL RESULT IN A LULL
IN RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. WITH CENTRAL NC IN THE WARM
SECTOR...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER/MID 70S
ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DELAYED UNTIL
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1244 PM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES MAY GIVE WAY TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
THIS AFT/EVE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS
ABATING AFTER SUNSET. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE
AREA...WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...YIELDING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN BELOW VFR UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KC
CLIMATE...RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 201927
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
227 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CAUSING MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER EASTERN CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE ENE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS
AHEAD OF IT...AND BRING WITH IT A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THE WINDS TO
SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT THEN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD ABATE AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SOUTH...BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT
ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHWARD AND SETTLING OVER NC FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR AND THE WINDS TO RELAX SOME AS WELL AS THE
HIGH RIDGES IN. THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL YIELD HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MID 40S NORTH TO LOW
50S SOUTH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A DECREASE IN THICKNESSES...WITH THE
LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE LOWEST. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY...VEERING
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
YIELDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. -KC

AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST US WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN INTO THE LOWER/CENTRAL MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG 1035MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NC TO START THE DAY WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH AN EAST-WEST DRY AIR RIDGE LINGERING
UNDERNEATH WEAK/MINOR HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. MODEL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...THOUGH STRENGTHENING S/SE LOW-LEVEL ATLANTIC MARITIME FEED
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAPID MOISTURE RECOVERY AND
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS.  DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO 950-970MB
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS OF 50 TO 55. NOT NEARLY AS COLD SATURDAY NIGHT
COMPARED TO FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING OWING TO THICKENING CLOUD
COVER AND RETURN FLOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S TO UPPER 30S.  -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH DYNAMICS REMAIN WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT
EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-
SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR POPS TO QUICKLY
RAMP UP SW TO NE SUNDAY MORNING-MIDDAY WITH A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0". IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-LEVEL JET
COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A NORTHWARD
RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO WORK WITH
MODELS SUGGESTING VERY WEAK INSTABILITY OF 200-300 J/KG OF ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA...LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW AND CONFINED TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 50S NW TO UPPER 60S SE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL RESULT IN A LULL
IN RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. WITH CENTRAL NC IN THE WARM
SECTOR...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER/MID 70S
ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DELAYED UNTIL
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1244 PM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES MAY GIVE WAY TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
THIS AFT/EVE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS
ABATING AFTER SUNSET. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE
AREA...WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...YIELDING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN BELOW VFR UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KC
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 201744
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1244 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CAUSING MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER EASTERN CANADA
REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING. THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW THE
TROUGH ALONG AND WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE H25 JET OVER
NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHERN VA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE
ENE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE REGION. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST
SOME SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT...AND BRING WITH IT A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. EXPECT THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT THEN MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE SUSTAINED
AROUND 10 KTS...GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF
THE FRONT IS A BIT SLOWER AND THE CLOUDS HOLD OFF...COULD SEE HIGHS
A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES HIGHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SOUTH...BUT AGAIN IS DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GRADUALLY RELAX THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
AREA. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL BECOME
MUCH MORE ZONAL. STILL WILL BE A COOLER DAY THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. A BIT OF AN ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURE
DISTRIBUTION AS THE LOWEST THICKNESS VALUES...AND THUS COLDEST
TEMPERATURES... WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN
AND KEEP THINGS CLEAR AS WELL AS RELAX THE AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS THAT
HAVE BEEN PREVALENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THICKNESS VALUES
FAVOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S BUT NEAR
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL KEEP US ON THE LOWER
SIDE OF THAT RANGE...MID TO UPPER 20S WITH SOME LOWER 20S POSSIBLE
IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS. -ELLIS

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST US WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN INTO THE LOWER/CENTRAL MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG 1035MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NC TO START THE DAY WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH AN EAST-WEST DRY AIR RIDGE LINGERING
UNDERNEATH WEAK/MINOR HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. MODEL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...THOUGH STRENGTHENING S/SE LOW-LEVEL ATLANTIC MARITIME FEED
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAPID MOISTURE RECOVERY AND
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS.  DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO 950-970MB
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS OF 50 TO 55. NOT NEARLY AS COLD SATURDAY NIGHT
COMPARED TO FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING OWING TO THICKENING CLOUD
COVER AND RETURN FLOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH DYNAMICS REMAIN WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT
EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-
SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR POPS TO QUICKLY
RAMP UP SW TO NE SUNDAY MORNING-MIDDAY WITH A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0". IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-LEVEL JET
COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A NORTHWARD
RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO WORK WITH
MODELS SUGGESTING VERY WEAK INSTABILITY OF 200-300 J/KG OF ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA...LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW AND CONFINED TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 50S NW TO UPPER 60S SE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL RESULT IN A LULL
IN RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. WITH CENTRAL NC IN THE WARM
SECTOR...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER/MID 70S
ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DELAYED UNTIL
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1244 PM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES MAY GIVE WAY TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
THIS AFT/EVE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS
ABATING AFTER SUNSET. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE
AREA...WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...YIELDING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN BELOW VFR UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...ELLIS/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KC
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 201744
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1244 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CAUSING MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER EASTERN CANADA
REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING. THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW THE
TROUGH ALONG AND WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE H25 JET OVER
NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHERN VA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE
ENE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE REGION. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST
SOME SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT...AND BRING WITH IT A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. EXPECT THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT THEN MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE SUSTAINED
AROUND 10 KTS...GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF
THE FRONT IS A BIT SLOWER AND THE CLOUDS HOLD OFF...COULD SEE HIGHS
A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES HIGHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SOUTH...BUT AGAIN IS DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GRADUALLY RELAX THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
AREA. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL BECOME
MUCH MORE ZONAL. STILL WILL BE A COOLER DAY THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. A BIT OF AN ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURE
DISTRIBUTION AS THE LOWEST THICKNESS VALUES...AND THUS COLDEST
TEMPERATURES... WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN
AND KEEP THINGS CLEAR AS WELL AS RELAX THE AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS THAT
HAVE BEEN PREVALENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THICKNESS VALUES
FAVOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S BUT NEAR
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL KEEP US ON THE LOWER
SIDE OF THAT RANGE...MID TO UPPER 20S WITH SOME LOWER 20S POSSIBLE
IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS. -ELLIS

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST US WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN INTO THE LOWER/CENTRAL MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG 1035MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NC TO START THE DAY WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH AN EAST-WEST DRY AIR RIDGE LINGERING
UNDERNEATH WEAK/MINOR HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. MODEL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...THOUGH STRENGTHENING S/SE LOW-LEVEL ATLANTIC MARITIME FEED
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAPID MOISTURE RECOVERY AND
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS.  DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO 950-970MB
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS OF 50 TO 55. NOT NEARLY AS COLD SATURDAY NIGHT
COMPARED TO FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING OWING TO THICKENING CLOUD
COVER AND RETURN FLOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH DYNAMICS REMAIN WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT
EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-
SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR POPS TO QUICKLY
RAMP UP SW TO NE SUNDAY MORNING-MIDDAY WITH A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0". IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-LEVEL JET
COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A NORTHWARD
RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO WORK WITH
MODELS SUGGESTING VERY WEAK INSTABILITY OF 200-300 J/KG OF ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA...LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW AND CONFINED TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 50S NW TO UPPER 60S SE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL RESULT IN A LULL
IN RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. WITH CENTRAL NC IN THE WARM
SECTOR...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER/MID 70S
ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DELAYED UNTIL
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1244 PM THURSDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES MAY GIVE WAY TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
THIS AFT/EVE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS
ABATING AFTER SUNSET. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE
AREA...WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LOOKING AHEAD: THE NEXT THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...YIELDING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN BELOW VFR UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
BECOME GUSTY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...ELLIS/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KC
CLIMATE...RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 201504
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1004 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CAUSING MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER EASTERN CANADA
REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING. THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW THE
TROUGH ALONG AND WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE H25 JET OVER
NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHERN VA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE
ENE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE REGION. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST
SOME SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT...AND BRING WITH IT A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. EXPECT THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT THEN MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE SUSTAINED
AROUND 10 KTS...GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF
THE FRONT IS A BIT SLOWER AND THE CLOUDS HOLD OFF...COULD SEE HIGHS
A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES HIGHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SOUTH...BUT AGAIN IS DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GRADUALLY RELAX THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
AREA. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL BECOME
MUCH MORE ZONAL. STILL WILL BE A COOLER DAY THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. A BIT OF AN ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURE
DISTRIBUTION AS THE LOWEST THICKNESS VALUES...AND THUS COLDEST
TEMPERATURES... WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN
AND KEEP THINGS CLEAR AS WELL AS RELAX THE AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS THAT
HAVE BEEN PREVALENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THICKNESS VALUES
FAVOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S BUT NEAR
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL KEEP US ON THE LOWER
SIDE OF THAT RANGE...MID TO UPPER 20S WITH SOME LOWER 20S POSSIBLE
IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS. -ELLIS

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST US WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN INTO THE LOWER/CENTRAL MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG 1035MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NC TO START THE DAY WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH AN EAST-WEST DRY AIR RIDGE LINGERING
UNDERNEATH WEAK/MINOR HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. MODEL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...THOUGH STRENGTHENING S/SE LOW-LEVEL ATLANTIC MARITIME FEED
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAPID MOISTURE RECOVERY AND
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS.  DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO 950-970MB
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS OF 50 TO 55. NOT NEARLY AS COLD SATURDAY NIGHT
COMPARED TO FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING OWING TO THICKENING CLOUD
COVER AND RETURN FLOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH DYNAMICS REMAIN WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT
EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-
SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR POPS TO QUICKLY
RAMP UP SW TO NE SUNDAY MORNING-MIDDAY WITH A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0". IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-LEVEL JET
COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A NORTHWARD
RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO WORK WITH
MODELS SUGGESTING VERY WEAK INSTABILITY OF 200-300 J/KG OF ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA...LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW AND CONFINED TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 50S NW TO UPPER 60S SE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL RESULT IN A LULL
IN RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. WITH CENTRAL NC IN THE WARM
SECTOR...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER/MID 70S
ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DELAYED UNTIL
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL SOME POSSIBLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE POSSIBLY SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHERN SITES THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON UP TO 20 KTS IN MOST LOCATIONS...A LITTLE LESS IN THE
SOUTH. AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH WINDS WILL GO FROM A PRIMARILY
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO A MORE WEST NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM: NO THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN A WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE UP THROUGH THE AREA AND CONDITIONS COULD
REMAIN BELOW VFR UNTIL THE SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...ELLIS/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 201504
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1004 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CAUSING MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER EASTERN CANADA
REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING. THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW THE
TROUGH ALONG AND WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE H25 JET OVER
NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHERN VA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE
ENE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE REGION. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY...WITH JUST
SOME SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT...AND BRING WITH IT A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. EXPECT THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT THEN MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE SUSTAINED
AROUND 10 KTS...GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES NW TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH. IF
THE FRONT IS A BIT SLOWER AND THE CLOUDS HOLD OFF...COULD SEE HIGHS
A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES HIGHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S NW TO LOW 30S SOUTH...BUT AGAIN IS DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING AND SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GRADUALLY RELAX THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
AREA. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL BECOME
MUCH MORE ZONAL. STILL WILL BE A COOLER DAY THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. A BIT OF AN ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURE
DISTRIBUTION AS THE LOWEST THICKNESS VALUES...AND THUS COLDEST
TEMPERATURES... WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN
AND KEEP THINGS CLEAR AS WELL AS RELAX THE AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS THAT
HAVE BEEN PREVALENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THICKNESS VALUES
FAVOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S BUT NEAR
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL KEEP US ON THE LOWER
SIDE OF THAT RANGE...MID TO UPPER 20S WITH SOME LOWER 20S POSSIBLE
IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS. -ELLIS

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST US WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN INTO THE LOWER/CENTRAL MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG 1035MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NC TO START THE DAY WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH AN EAST-WEST DRY AIR RIDGE LINGERING
UNDERNEATH WEAK/MINOR HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. MODEL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...THOUGH STRENGTHENING S/SE LOW-LEVEL ATLANTIC MARITIME FEED
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAPID MOISTURE RECOVERY AND
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS.  DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO 950-970MB
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS OF 50 TO 55. NOT NEARLY AS COLD SATURDAY NIGHT
COMPARED TO FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING OWING TO THICKENING CLOUD
COVER AND RETURN FLOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH DYNAMICS REMAIN WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT
EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-
SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR POPS TO QUICKLY
RAMP UP SW TO NE SUNDAY MORNING-MIDDAY WITH A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0". IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-LEVEL JET
COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A NORTHWARD
RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO WORK WITH
MODELS SUGGESTING VERY WEAK INSTABILITY OF 200-300 J/KG OF ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA...LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW AND CONFINED TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 50S NW TO UPPER 60S SE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL RESULT IN A LULL
IN RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. WITH CENTRAL NC IN THE WARM
SECTOR...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER/MID 70S
ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DELAYED UNTIL
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL SOME POSSIBLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE POSSIBLY SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHERN SITES THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON UP TO 20 KTS IN MOST LOCATIONS...A LITTLE LESS IN THE
SOUTH. AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH WINDS WILL GO FROM A PRIMARILY
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO A MORE WEST NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM: NO THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN A WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE UP THROUGH THE AREA AND CONDITIONS COULD
REMAIN BELOW VFR UNTIL THE SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...ELLIS/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 201152
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
652 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CAUSING MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
MORNING AS DOES HE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST THAT HAS
PROVIDED SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC AND SOME RELIEF TO
YESTERDAYS RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES. THIS COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE
THAT HAS LEFT SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE CWA HAS HELPED
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SO FAR THIS MORNING AS WE ARE STILL IN THE MID
30S...BUT LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE CLOUD COVER HAS BEGUN
TO CLEAR OUT HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 30S WITH SOME UPPER 20S
SHOWING UP ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DROP AS
THAT HAPPENS. THEREFORE STILL EXPECTING LOWS THIS MORNING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S.

THIS AFTERNOON A DRY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA
GRADUALLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH THIS MAY COME SOME UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. THE FRONT WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO SHIFT
FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO A MORE WEST NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND ONCE
AGAIN BRING A COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA BY LATER TONIGHT. WIND
GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR 50 IN THE NW AND UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 IN THS SOUTH WHERE THE
DRY ADIABATIC METHOD...THICKNESS VALUES AND A LATER ARRIVAL OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION OF THE FRONT SHOULD GIVE MORE TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO
RISE A LITTLE MORE IN THE SOUTHEAST. WILL LEAN TO THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ONCE AGAIN AS THICKNESSES DROP
BACK INTO THE 1290-1310 METER RANGE BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GRADUALLY RELAX THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
AREA. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL BECOME
MUCH MORE ZONAL. STILL WILL BE A COOLER DAY THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. A BIT OF AN ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURE
DISTRIBUTION AS THE LOWEST THICKNESS VALUES...AND THUS COLDEST
TEMPERATURES... WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN
AND KEEP THINGS CLEAR AS WELL AS RELAX THE AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS THAT
HAVE BEEN PREVALENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THICKNESS VALUES
FAVOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S BUT NEAR
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL KEEP US ON THE LOWER
SIDE OF THAT RANGE...MID TO UPPER 20S WITH SOME LOWER 20S POSSIBLE
IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS. -ELLIS

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST US WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN INTO THE LOWER/CENTRAL MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG 1035MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NC TO START THE DAY WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH AN EAST-WEST DRY AIR RIDGE LINGERING
UNDERNEATH WEAK/MINOR HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. MODEL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...THOUGH STRENGTHENING S/SE LOW-LEVEL ATLANTIC MARITIME FEED
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAPID MOISTURE RECOVERY AND
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS.  DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO 950-970MB
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS OF 50 TO 55. NOT NEARLY AS COLD SATURDAY NIGHT
COMPARED TO FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING OWING TO THICKENING CLOUD
COVER AND RETURN FLOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH DYNAMICS REMAIN WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT
EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-
SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR POPS TO QUICKLY
RAMP UP SW TO NE SUNDAY MORNING-MIDDAY WITH A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0". IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-LEVEL JET
COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A NORTHWARD
RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO WORK WITH
MODELS SUGGESTING VERY WEAK INSTABILITY OF 200-300 J/KG OF ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA...LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW AND CONFINED TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 50S NW TO UPPER 60S SE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL RESULT IN A LULL
IN RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. WITH CENTRAL NC IN THE WARM
SECTOR...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER/MID 70S
ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DELAYED UNTIL
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL SOME POSSIBLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE POSSIBLY SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHERN SITES THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON UP TO 20 KTS IN MOST LOCATIONS...A LITTLE LESS IN THE
SOUTH. AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH WINDS WILL GO FROM A PRIMARILY
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO A MORE WEST NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM: NO THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN A WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE UP THROUGH THE AREA AND CONDITIONS COULD
REMAIN BELOW VFR UNTIL THE SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...RAH




000
FXUS62 KRAH 201152
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
652 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CAUSING MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
MORNING AS DOES HE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST THAT HAS
PROVIDED SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC AND SOME RELIEF TO
YESTERDAYS RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES. THIS COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE
THAT HAS LEFT SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE CWA HAS HELPED
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SO FAR THIS MORNING AS WE ARE STILL IN THE MID
30S...BUT LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE CLOUD COVER HAS BEGUN
TO CLEAR OUT HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 30S WITH SOME UPPER 20S
SHOWING UP ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DROP AS
THAT HAPPENS. THEREFORE STILL EXPECTING LOWS THIS MORNING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S.

THIS AFTERNOON A DRY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA
GRADUALLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH THIS MAY COME SOME UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. THE FRONT WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO SHIFT
FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO A MORE WEST NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND ONCE
AGAIN BRING A COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA BY LATER TONIGHT. WIND
GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR 50 IN THE NW AND UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 IN THS SOUTH WHERE THE
DRY ADIABATIC METHOD...THICKNESS VALUES AND A LATER ARRIVAL OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION OF THE FRONT SHOULD GIVE MORE TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO
RISE A LITTLE MORE IN THE SOUTHEAST. WILL LEAN TO THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ONCE AGAIN AS THICKNESSES DROP
BACK INTO THE 1290-1310 METER RANGE BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GRADUALLY RELAX THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
AREA. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL BECOME
MUCH MORE ZONAL. STILL WILL BE A COOLER DAY THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. A BIT OF AN ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURE
DISTRIBUTION AS THE LOWEST THICKNESS VALUES...AND THUS COLDEST
TEMPERATURES... WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN
AND KEEP THINGS CLEAR AS WELL AS RELAX THE AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS THAT
HAVE BEEN PREVALENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THICKNESS VALUES
FAVOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S BUT NEAR
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL KEEP US ON THE LOWER
SIDE OF THAT RANGE...MID TO UPPER 20S WITH SOME LOWER 20S POSSIBLE
IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS. -ELLIS

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST US WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN INTO THE LOWER/CENTRAL MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG 1035MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NC TO START THE DAY WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH AN EAST-WEST DRY AIR RIDGE LINGERING
UNDERNEATH WEAK/MINOR HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. MODEL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...THOUGH STRENGTHENING S/SE LOW-LEVEL ATLANTIC MARITIME FEED
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAPID MOISTURE RECOVERY AND
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS.  DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO 950-970MB
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS OF 50 TO 55. NOT NEARLY AS COLD SATURDAY NIGHT
COMPARED TO FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING OWING TO THICKENING CLOUD
COVER AND RETURN FLOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH DYNAMICS REMAIN WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT
EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-
SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR POPS TO QUICKLY
RAMP UP SW TO NE SUNDAY MORNING-MIDDAY WITH A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0". IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-LEVEL JET
COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A NORTHWARD
RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO WORK WITH
MODELS SUGGESTING VERY WEAK INSTABILITY OF 200-300 J/KG OF ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA...LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW AND CONFINED TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 50S NW TO UPPER 60S SE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL RESULT IN A LULL
IN RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. WITH CENTRAL NC IN THE WARM
SECTOR...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER/MID 70S
ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DELAYED UNTIL
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL SOME POSSIBLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE POSSIBLY SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHERN SITES THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON UP TO 20 KTS IN MOST LOCATIONS...A LITTLE LESS IN THE
SOUTH. AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH WINDS WILL GO FROM A PRIMARILY
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO A MORE WEST NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM: NO THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN A WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE UP THROUGH THE AREA AND CONDITIONS COULD
REMAIN BELOW VFR UNTIL THE SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...RAH





000
FXUS62 KRAH 201152
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
652 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...CAUSING MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
MORNING AS DOES HE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST THAT HAS
PROVIDED SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC AND SOME RELIEF TO
YESTERDAYS RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES. THIS COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE
THAT HAS LEFT SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE CWA HAS HELPED
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SO FAR THIS MORNING AS WE ARE STILL IN THE MID
30S...BUT LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE CLOUD COVER HAS BEGUN
TO CLEAR OUT HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 30S WITH SOME UPPER 20S
SHOWING UP ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DROP AS
THAT HAPPENS. THEREFORE STILL EXPECTING LOWS THIS MORNING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S.

THIS AFTERNOON A DRY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA
GRADUALLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH THIS MAY COME SOME UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. THE FRONT WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO SHIFT
FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO A MORE WEST NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND ONCE
AGAIN BRING A COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA BY LATER TONIGHT. WIND
GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR 50 IN THE NW AND UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 IN THS SOUTH WHERE THE
DRY ADIABATIC METHOD...THICKNESS VALUES AND A LATER ARRIVAL OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION OF THE FRONT SHOULD GIVE MORE TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO
RISE A LITTLE MORE IN THE SOUTHEAST. WILL LEAN TO THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ONCE AGAIN AS THICKNESSES DROP
BACK INTO THE 1290-1310 METER RANGE BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GRADUALLY RELAX THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
AREA. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL BECOME
MUCH MORE ZONAL. STILL WILL BE A COOLER DAY THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. A BIT OF AN ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURE
DISTRIBUTION AS THE LOWEST THICKNESS VALUES...AND THUS COLDEST
TEMPERATURES... WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN
AND KEEP THINGS CLEAR AS WELL AS RELAX THE AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS THAT
HAVE BEEN PREVALENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THICKNESS VALUES
FAVOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S BUT NEAR
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL KEEP US ON THE LOWER
SIDE OF THAT RANGE...MID TO UPPER 20S WITH SOME LOWER 20S POSSIBLE
IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS. -ELLIS

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST US WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AND THEN INTO THE LOWER/CENTRAL MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
STRONG 1035MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NC TO START THE DAY WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH AN EAST-WEST DRY AIR RIDGE LINGERING
UNDERNEATH WEAK/MINOR HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. MODEL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
SUNDAY...THOUGH STRENGTHENING S/SE LOW-LEVEL ATLANTIC MARITIME FEED
SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAPID MOISTURE RECOVERY AND
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS.  DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO 950-970MB
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS OF 50 TO 55. NOT NEARLY AS COLD SATURDAY NIGHT
COMPARED TO FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING OWING TO THICKENING CLOUD
COVER AND RETURN FLOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT:

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL MS VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE THE BEST TROUGH DYNAMICS REMAIN WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...STRONG/DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN THE TRANSIENT
EASTWARD PROPAGATING WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL RESULT IN A WET SUNDAY-
SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR POPS TO QUICKLY
RAMP UP SW TO NE SUNDAY MORNING-MIDDAY WITH A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT/WAA ATTENDANT TO A NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A 0.50" TO AN 1.0". IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL KINEMATIC WIND FIELDS FUELED BY A 60-65KT LOW-LEVEL JET
COUPLED WITH ENHANCED NEAR SURFACE HELICITY/SHEAR ALONG A NORTHWARD
RETREATING WEDGE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LIMITED BUOYANCY TO WORK WITH
MODELS SUGGESTING VERY WEAK INSTABILITY OF 200-300 J/KG OF ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA...LIMITED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW AND CONFINED TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS.

IN-SITU DAMMING FROM THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...UNTIL THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR QUITE POSSIBLY WARM OVERNIGHT. HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 50S NW TO UPPER 60S SE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL RESULT IN A LULL
IN RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. WITH CENTRAL NC IN THE WARM
SECTOR...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER/MID 70S
ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DELAYED UNTIL
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL SOME POSSIBLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE POSSIBLY SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHERN SITES THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON UP TO 20 KTS IN MOST LOCATIONS...A LITTLE LESS IN THE
SOUTH. AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH WINDS WILL GO FROM A PRIMARILY
SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO A MORE WEST NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM: NO THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN A WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE UP THROUGH THE AREA AND CONDITIONS COULD
REMAIN BELOW VFR UNTIL THE SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOW:   GSO  RDUFAY

SAT 11/22 - 13 IN 1914    21 IN 2008    20 IN 2000

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...RAH




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