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000
FXUS62 KRAH 171453
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1050 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND TODAY...THEN LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FRIDAY...THEN MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 1050 AM THURSDAY...

...A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT IN THE PIEDMONT...

DETAILS ON THE POTENTIAL ADVISORY WILL BE UPCOMING.

OTHERWISE... VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH CONTINUED TO BE FUNNELED INTO CENTRAL NC LATE
THIS MORNING. A CONTINUED SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS HAS ALLOWED SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE TO STREAK ACROSS THE SKY NOTED BY THE CIRRUS. THIS PROCESS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF THE CIRRUS EXPECTED TO
PUSH OFF TO THE NE BY LATE AFTERNOON (PER SATELLITE DATA). NO WORSE
THAN PARTY TO MOSTLY SKIES WILL RESULT. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS NEAR
60 NORTH INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST LOOKS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

TONIGHT: CHILLY WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...PARTICULARLY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF
ADDITIONAL CIRRUS DOWNSTREAM OF ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NM THIS MORNING. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN
RURAL PIEDMONT LOCATIONS.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT: A PAIR OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER
NM AND SOUTH TX THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE AND FORM A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GOM AND THE FL
PENINSULA...AND WHILE THERE REMAINS LARGER THAN AVERAGE MODEL SPREAD
FOR A 36-48 HR FORECAST...THE OVERALL TREND IN NWP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TOWARD A STRONGER...AND CLOUDIER/WETTER FOR CENTRAL NC...SOLUTION.
INDEED...IT NOW APPEARS THAT CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS EARLY FRI WILL
PROGRESSIVELY THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SUCH THAT A
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RESULT ALONG OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
BEFORE SUNSET FRI. THE RAIN...IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...WILL THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF
THE REST OF CENTRAL NC FRI NIGHT. WHILE LIKELY POPS ARE NOW
WARRANTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL NC...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW FAR WEST/INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT THE RAIN SHIELD WILL EVOLVE/EXPAND...SO ONLY
SMALL/SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE INDICATED THERE WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. THE CLOUDIER/WETTER FORECAST WILL ALSO BE A COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ONE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60. LOWS 45-50.  -MWS

SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE CLOSES OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY...
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION... MORE FAVORED OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. GFS RUNS ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA... HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE
VAST MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER...WITH
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW... AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE DRIVEN BY
ISENTROPIC LIFT WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM. WITH CLOUD COVER AND
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW... EXPECT HIGHS BELOW NORMAL... IN THE LOWER 60S.
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S... WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
EXITING TO THE EAST.  -SEC

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 309 AM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY... AND
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM... WITH
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
ON MONDAY... BEFORE ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE CROSSES THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... BRINGING A TROUGH/WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH. AT THIS POINT WILL CAP AT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AS THE NW FLOW SHOULD NOT
SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS IN TO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD... AHEAD OF
AN AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO
THE LOW 70S ON MONDAY TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY... WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM THURSDAY...

UNSEASONABLY STRONG/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH FROM NEW
ENGLAND AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR/VFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...WHICH WILL YIELD TO BOTH INCREASING CIRRUS IN SW FLOW
ALOFT FROM THE WEST...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCT STRATOCUMULUS
BETWEEN 2500-4000 FT MAINLY AT EASTERN TERMINALS FROM MID-MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND OVER CENTRAL NC...STRONGEST AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS AT EASTERN TERMINALS...
ALSO FROM MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THIS SYSTEM
MAY RESULT IN RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KFAY/KRWI/KRDU FRI
NIGHT-SAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE REGARDING THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS OVER CENTRAL NC...HOWEVER.

&&

.CLIMATE...

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING:

      THU 04/17

       LOW/YEAR
FAY:   31/1953
GSO:   29/1953
RDU:   29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...MWS/SEC
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 171318
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
915 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND TODAY...THEN LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FRIDAY...THEN MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 AM THURSDAY...

TEMPS HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING. THUS... THE FREEZE
WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S TODAY WITH AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
AROUND 20 TO 25 METERS HIGHER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.

AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY... UNSEASONABLY STRONG/1040-1045 MB POLAR HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MAINE WILL RIDGE SOUTH AND MAINTAIN CONTINUED
COOL...BUT INCREASINGLY MODIFIED...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY. A
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED CIRRUS OVER AL/GA WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE TRENDED LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BENEATH THE ~4000 FT
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EVIDENT ON REGIONAL RAOBS FROM WED.
HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW PATCHES OF
STRATOCUMULUS HAVE SPREAD INLAND OVER NE SC AND SE NC THIS
MORNING...SO SOME OF THIS MOISTURE - TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION
ABOVE - IS APT TO AFFECT AT LEAST COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES FROM MID-
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900
MB...AND ABOUT A 20-25 METER INCREASE IN FORECAST LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES OVER THOSE OF WED...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 60 AND
65 DEGREES.

TONIGHT: CHILLY WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...PARTICULARLY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF
ADDITIONAL CIRRUS DOWNSTREAM OF ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NM THIS MORNING. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN
RURAL PIEDMONT LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

FRI AND FRI NIGHT: A PAIR OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER
NM AND SOUTH TX THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE AND FORM A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GOM AND THE FL
PENINSULA...AND WHILE THERE REMAINS LARGER THAN AVERAGE MODEL SPREAD
FOR A 36-48 HR FORECAST...THE OVERALL TREND IN NWP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TOWARD A STRONGER...AND CLOUDIER/WETTER FOR CENTRAL NC...SOLUTION.
INDEED...IT NOW APPEARS THAT CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS EARLY FRI WILL
PROGRESSIVELY THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SUCH THAT A
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RESULT ALONG OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
BEFORE SUNSET FRI. THE RAIN...IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...WILL THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF
THE REST OF CENTRAL NC FRI NIGHT. WHILE LIKELY POPS ARE NOW
WARRANTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL NC...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW FAR WEST/INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT THE RAIN SHIELD WILL EVOLVE/EXPAND...SO ONLY
SMALL/SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE INDICATED THERE WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. THE CLOUDIER/WETTER FORECAST WILL ALSO BE A COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ONE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60. LOWS 45-50.  -MWS

SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE CLOSES OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY...
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION... MORE FAVORED OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. GFS RUNS ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA... HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE
VAST MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER...WITH
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW... AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE DRIVEN BY
ISENTROPIC LIFT WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM. WITH CLOUD COVER AND
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW... EXPECT HIGHS BELOW NORMAL... IN THE LOWER 60S.
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S... WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
EXITING TO THE EAST.  -SEC

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 309 AM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY... AND
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM... WITH
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
ON MONDAY... BEFORE ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE CROSSES THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... BRINGING A TROUGH/WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH. AT THIS POINT WILL CAP AT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AS THE NW FLOW SHOULD NOT
SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS IN TO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD... AHEAD OF
AN AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO
THE LOW 70S ON MONDAY TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY... WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM THURSDAY...

UNSEASONABLY STRONG/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH FROM NEW
ENGLAND AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR/VFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...WHICH WILL YIELD TO BOTH INCREASING CIRRUS IN SW FLOW
ALOFT FROM THE WEST...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCT STRATOCUMULUS
BETWEEN 2500-4000 FT MAINLY AT EASTERN TERMINALS FROM MID-MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND OVER CENTRAL NC...STRONGEST AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS AT EASTERN TERMINALS...
ALSO FROM MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THIS SYSTEM
MAY RESULT IN RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KFAY/KRWI/KRDU FRI
NIGHT-SAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE REGARDING THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS OVER CENTRAL NC...HOWEVER.

&&

.CLIMATE...

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING:

      THU 04/17

       LOW/YEAR
FAY:   31/1953
GSO:   29/1953
RDU:   29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS/SEC
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 171133
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
733 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND TODAY...THEN LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FRIDAY...THEN MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

UNSEASONABLY STRONG/1040-1045 MB POLAR HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
MAINE WILL RIDGE SOUTH AND MAINTAIN CONTINUED COOL...BUT
INCREASINGLY MODIFIED...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED CIRRUS OVER AL/GA WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL NC MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BUFR FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HAVE TRENDED LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WESTWARD EXPANSION
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BENEATH THE ~4000 FT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
EVIDENT ON REGIONAL RAOBS FROM WED. HOWEVER...EARLY MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS HAVE
SPREAD INLAND OVER NE SC AND SE NC THIS MORNING...SO SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE - TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION ABOVE - IS APT TO AFFECT AT
LEAST COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES FROM MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900 MB...AND ABOUT A 20-25 METER
INCREASE IN FORECAST LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES OVER THOSE OF
WED...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 60 AND 65 DEGREES.

TONIGHT: CHILLY WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...PARTICULARLY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF
ADDITIONAL CIRRUS DOWNSTREAM OF ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NM THIS MORNING. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN
RURAL PIEDMONT LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

FRI AND FRI NIGHT: A PAIR OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER
NM AND SOUTH TX THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE AND FORM A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GOM AND THE FL
PENINSULA...AND WHILE THERE REMAINS LARGER THAN AVERAGE MODEL SPREAD
FOR A 36-48 HR FORECAST...THE OVERALL TREND IN NWP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TOWARD A STRONGER...AND CLOUDIER/WETTER FOR CENTRAL NC...SOLUTION.
INDEED...IT NOW APPEARS THAT CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS EARLY FRI WILL
PROGRESSIVELY THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SUCH THAT A
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RESULT ALONG OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
BEFORE SUNSET FRI. THE RAIN...IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...WILL THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF
THE REST OF CENTRAL NC FRI NIGHT. WHILE LIKELY POPS ARE NOW
WARRANTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL NC...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW FAR WEST/INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT THE RAIN SHIELD WILL EVOLVE/EXPAND...SO ONLY
SMALL/SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE INDICATED THERE WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. THE CLOUDIER/WETTER FORECAST WILL ALSO BE A COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ONE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60. LOWS 45-50.  -MWS

SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE CLOSES OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY...
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION... MORE FAVORED OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. GFS RUNS ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA... HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE
VAST MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER...WITH
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW... AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE DRIVEN BY
ISENTROPIC LIFT WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM. WITH CLOUD COVER AND
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW... EXPECT HIGHS BELOW NORMAL... IN THE LOWER 60S.
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S... WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
EXITING TO THE EAST.  -SEC

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 309 AM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY... AND
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM... WITH
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
ON MONDAY... BEFORE ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE CROSSES THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... BRINGING A TROUGH/WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH. AT THIS POINT WILL CAP AT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AS THE NW FLOW SHOULD NOT
SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS IN TO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD... AHEAD OF
AN AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO
THE LOW 70S ON MONDAY TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY... WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM THURSDAY...

UNSEASONABLY STRONG/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH FROM NEW
ENGLAND AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR/VFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...WHICH WILL YIELD TO BOTH INCREASING CIRRUS IN SW FLOW
ALOFT FROM THE WEST...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCT STRATOCUMULUS
BETWEEN 2500-4000 FT MAINLY AT EASTERN TERMINALS FROM MID-MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND OVER CENTRAL NC...STRONGEST AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS AT EASTERN TERMINALS...
ALSO FROM MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THIS SYSTEM
MAY RESULT IN RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KFAY/KRWI/KRDU FRI
NIGHT-SAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE REGARDING THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS OVER CENTRAL NC...HOWEVER.

&&

.CLIMATE...

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING:

      THU 04/17

       LOW/YEAR
FAY:   31/1953
GSO:   29/1953
RDU:   29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>077-083>086.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS/SEC
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 170716
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
316 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND TODAY...THEN LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FRIDAY...THEN MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

UNSEASONABLY STRONG/1040-1045 MB POLAR HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
MAINE WILL RIDGE SOUTH AND MAINTAIN CONTINUED COOL...BUT
INCREASINGLY MODIFIED...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED CIRRUS OVER AL/GA WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE TRENDED LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BENEATH THE ~4000 FT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION EVIDENT ON REGIONAL RAOBS FROM WED. HOWEVER...EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS
HAVE SPREAD INLAND OVER NE SC AND SE NC THIS MORNING...SO SOME OF
THIS MOISTURE - TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION ABOVE - IS APT TO
AFFECT AT LEAST COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES FROM MID-MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900 MB...AND ABOUT A 20-25
METER INCREASE IN FORECAST LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES OVER THOSE OF
WED...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 60 AND 65 DEGREES.

TONIGHT: CHILLY WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...PARTICULARLY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF
ADDITIONAL CIRRUS DOWNSTREAM OF ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NM THIS MORNING. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN
RURAL PIEDMONT LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

FRI AND FRI NIGHT: A PAIR OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER
NM AND SOUTH TX THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE AND FORM A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GOM AND THE FL
PENINSULA...AND WHILE THERE REMAINS LARGER THAN AVERAGE MODEL SPREAD
FOR A 36-48 FORECAST...THE OVERALL TREND IN NWP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TOWARD A STRONGER...AND CLOUDIER/WETTER FOR CENTRAL NC...SOLUTION.
INDEED...IT NOW APPEARS THAT CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS EARLY FRI WILL
PROGRESSIVELY THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SUCH THAT A
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RESULT ALONG OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
BEFORE SUNSET FRI. THE RAIN...IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...WILL THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF
THE REST OF CENTRAL NC FRI NIGHT. WHILE LIKELY POPS ARE NOW
WARRANTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL NC...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW FAR WEST/INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT THE RAIN SHIELD WILL EVOLVE/EXPAND...SO ONLY
SMALL/SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE INDICATED THERE WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. THE CLOUDIER/WETTER FORECAST WILL ALSO BE A COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ONE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60. LOWS 45-50.  -MWS

SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE CLOSES OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY...
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION... MORE FAVORED OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. GFS RUNS ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA... HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE
VAST MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER...WITH
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW... AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE DRIVEN BY
ISENTROPIC LIFT WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM. WITH CLOUD COVER AND
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW... EXPECT HIGHS BELOW NORMAL... IN THE LOWER 60S.
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S... WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
EXITING TO THE EAST.  -SEC

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 309 AM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY... AND
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM... WITH
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
ON MONDAY... BEFORE ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE CROSSES THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... BRINGING A TROUGH/WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH. AT THIS POINT WILL CAP AT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AS THE NW FLOW SHOULD NOT
SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS IN TO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD... AHEAD OF
AN AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO
THE LOW 70S ON MONDAY TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY... WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY...

UNSEASONABLY STRONG/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH FROM NEW
ENGLAND AND RESULT IN CLEAR/VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
YIELD TO BOTH INCREASING CIRRUS IN SW FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST...AND
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCT TO PERHAPS EVEN BKN STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN 2500-
4000 FT MAINLY AT EASTERN TERMINALS BETWEEN MID-MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND OVER CENTRAL NC...STRONGEST AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS AT EASTERN TERMINALS...
ALSO FROM MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THIS SYSTEM
MAY RESULT IN RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KFAY/KRWI/KRDU FRI
NIGHT-SAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE REGARDING THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS OVER CENTRAL NC...HOWEVER.

&&

.CLIMATE...

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING:

      THU 04/17

       LOW/YEAR
FAY:   31/1953
GSO:   29/1953
RDU:   29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>077-083>086.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS/SEC
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 170712
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
311 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND TODAY...THEN LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FRIDAY...THEN MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

UNSEASONABLY STRONG/1040-1045 MB POLAR HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
MAINE WILL RIDGE SOUTH AND MAINTAIN CONTINUED COOL...BUT
INCREASINGLY MODIFIED...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED CIRRUS OVER AL/GA WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE TRENDED LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BENEATH THE ~4000 FT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION EVIDENT ON REGIONAL RAOBS FROM WED. HOWEVER...EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS
HAVE SPREAD INLAND OVER NE SC AND SE NC THIS MORNING...SO SOME OF
THIS MOISTURE - TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION ABOVE - IS APT TO
AFFECT AT LEAST COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES FROM MID-MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900 MB...AND ABOUT A 20-25
METER INCREASE IN FORECAST LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES OVER THOSE OF
WED...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 60 AND 65 DEGREES.

TONIGHT: CHILLY WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...PARTICULARLY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF
ADDITIONAL CIRRUS DOWNSTREAM OF ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NM THIS MORNING. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN
RURAL PIEDMONT LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY /...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...

SHOULD SEE AT A MINIMUM A MIXTURE OF SUN AND CLOUDS FRIDAY WITH THE
CHARACTER OF THE SKY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OR OVERCAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PRECIP FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ASIDE FROM A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS
THE FAR SE.

AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MODIFY BUT AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. MAX TEMPS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 309 AM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY... AND
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM... WITH
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
ON MONDAY... BEFORE ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE CROSSES THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... BRINGING A TROUGH/WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH. AT THIS POINT WILL CAP AT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AS THE NW FLOW SHOULD NOT
SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS IN TO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD... AHEAD OF
AN AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO
THE LOW 70S ON MONDAY TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY... WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY...

UNSEASONABLY STRONG/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH FROM NEW
ENGLAND AND RESULT IN CLEAR/VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
YIELD TO BOTH INCREASING CIRRUS IN SW FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST...AND
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCT TO PERHAPS EVEN BKN STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN 2500-
4000 FT MAINLY AT EASTERN TERMINALS BETWEEN MID-MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND OVER CENTRAL NC...STRONGEST AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS AT EASTERN TERMINALS...
ALSO FROM MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THIS SYSTEM
MAY RESULT IN RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KFAY/KRWI/KRDU FRI
NIGHT-SAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE REGARDING THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS OVER CENTRAL NC...HOWEVER.

&&

.CLIMATE...

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING:

      THU 04/17

       LOW/YEAR
FAY:   31/1953
GSO:   29/1953
RDU:   29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>077-083>086.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 170659
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
259 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND TODAY...THEN LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FRIDAY...THEN MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...

UNSEASONABLY STRONG/1040-1045 MB POLAR HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
MAINE WILL RIDGE SOUTH AND MAINTAIN CONTINUED COOL...BUT
INCREASINGLY MODIFIED...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED CIRRUS OVER AL/GA WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE TRENDED LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BENEATH THE ~4000 FT SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION EVIDENT ON REGIONAL RAOBS FROM WED. HOWEVER...EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS
HAVE SPREAD INLAND OVER NE SC AND SE NC THIS MORNING...SO SOME OF
THIS MOISTURE - TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION ABOVE - IS APT TO
AFFECT AT LEAST COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES FROM MID-MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900 MB...AND ABOUT A 20-25
METER INCREASE IN FORECAST LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES OVER THOSE OF
WED...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 60 AND 65 DEGREES.

TONIGHT: CHILLY WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...PARTICULARLY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF
ADDITIONAL CIRRUS DOWNSTREAM OF ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NM THIS MORNING. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN
RURAL PIEDMONT LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY /...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...

SHOULD SEE AT A MINIMUM A MIXTURE OF SUN AND CLOUDS FRIDAY WITH THE
CHARACTER OF THE SKY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OR OVERCAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PRECIP FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ASIDE FROM A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS
THE FAR SE.

AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MODIFY BUT AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. MAX TEMPS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE WEEKEND FORECAST CONTINUES TO
HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF A POSSIBLE
CLOSED LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S/OFFSHORE. WHILE THE
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS PROGRESSIVE AND PUSHES EASTWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BOTH
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF PULLS MOISTURE NORTHWARD... AND PRODUCED SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST/EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING... WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE TO
OUR EAST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER... MODEL GUIDANCES IS STRUGGLING WITH
WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE LINGERING SOUTHERN STEAM ENERGY THAT
POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW AND LINGERS NEAR FL AND OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME A MORE IN THE LINE
WITH THE 12Z GFS IN SHOWING LINGERING MID LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE COAST TO KEEP US DRY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCES HAS SHOWN POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THUS... CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH THAT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THAT WE WILL BE
COMPLETELY DRY AT THIS TIME ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA (IF PRECIP
LINGER... LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WOULD SEE THE BEST
CHANCE/MOST). FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AS MENTIONED ABOVE
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
A COOL EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH AT LEAST SOME CLOUD COVER (MORE
EAST VS WEST). THUS... WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S... WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: NEXT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY... ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
HOWEVER... WITH LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL KEEP
POPS LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECT TO
WARM AGAIN... WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY...

UNSEASONABLY STRONG/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH FROM NEW
ENGLAND AND RESULT IN CLEAR/VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
YIELD TO BOTH INCREASING CIRRUS IN SW FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST...AND
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCT TO PERHAPS EVEN BKN STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN 2500-
4000 FT MAINLY AT EASTERN TERMINALS BETWEEN MID-MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND OVER CENTRAL NC...STRONGEST AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS AT EASTERN TERMINALS...
ALSO FROM MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THIS SYSTEM
MAY RESULT IN RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KFAY/KRWI/KRDU FRI
NIGHT-SAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE REGARDING THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS OVER CENTRAL NC...HOWEVER.

&&

.CLIMATE...

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING:

      THU 04/17

       LOW/YEAR
FAY:   31/1953
GSO:   29/1953
RDU:   29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>077-083>086.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 170608
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
207 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND TODAY...THEN LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FRIDAY...THEN MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM WEDNESDAY...

PRESSURE READINGS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING AS
A STRONG 1036MB SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND REACHES DOWN THE EAST
COAST.  THE MAIN STORY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZE AND FROST. WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED IN SOME SPOTS...BUT THE
BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE IS KEEPING A LIGHT WIND STIRRING OVER MOST OF
THE AREA.  SHOULD SEE MORE AREAS DECOUPLE BY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.  HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN A BIT OVER EASTERN NC BY 09Z IN
RESPONSE TO A WESTWARD MIGRATING INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE...AND THE
RATE AT WHICH TEMPS FALL OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL SLOW AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SETTLES TOWARD THE PIEDMONT.  COULD ISSUE A FROST
ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STAYING AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...AND
THE FROST SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY IN NATURE. THE FREEZE WARNING WILL
CONTINUE AS FORECAST. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF
STRATO CU OFFSHORE...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND LATE TONIGHT
AND TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY. -SMITH


THURSDAY...CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A
LONG NE FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO EASTERN NC. THIS FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT A SHALLOW THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...RESULTING IN A SCATTERED TO BRIEFLY BROKEN LAYER OF STRATOCU
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LAYER TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES
IF EVEN THAT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL THOUGH SOME
RECOVERY COMPARED TO TODAY ANTICIPATED. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES
PROJECTED TO BE ABOUT 20M WARMT THAN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SUGGEST
AFTERNOON TEMPS THURSDAY ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS IS MORE SIMILAR TO THE COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE. MAX TEMPS UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY /...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY....SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS
PARENT HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/CANADIAN
MARITIME DUE TO CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE AIR MASS UNDERNEATH
THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY...PRESENCE OF DRY AIR UNDER THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A BASICALLY CLOUD FREE ATMOSPHERE IN
THE LOWEST 10K FEET. MEANWHILE...A S/W IS PROJECTED TO MOVE EAST-SE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL NC PLAINS AND INTO THE TN VALLEY WHERE IT IS
PROJECTED TO BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A SYSTEM LIFTING E-NE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL BACK IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THESE SYSTEMS...TRANSPORTING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING VEIL
OF HIGH CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE THICKNESS OF THESE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHETHER SCATTERED FROST WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE PIEDMONT THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...LOW
LEVEL ELY FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY FRIDAY MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID 30S WEST TO UPPER
30S/AROUND 40 EAST.

SHOULD SEE AT A MINIMUM A MIXTURE OF SUN AND CLOUDS FRIDAY WITH THE
CHARACTER OF THE SKY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OR OVERCAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PRECIP FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ASIDE FROM A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS
THE FAR SE.

AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MODIFY BUT AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. MAX TEMPS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE WEEKEND FORECAST CONTINUES TO
HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF A POSSIBLE
CLOSED LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S/OFFSHORE. WHILE THE
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS PROGRESSIVE AND PUSHES EASTWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BOTH
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF PULLS MOISTURE NORTHWARD... AND PRODUCED SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST/EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING... WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE TO
OUR EAST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER... MODEL GUIDANCES IS STRUGGLING WITH
WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE LINGERING SOUTHERN STEAM ENERGY THAT
POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW AND LINGERS NEAR FL AND OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME A MORE IN THE LINE
WITH THE 12Z GFS IN SHOWING LINGERING MID LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE COAST TO KEEP US DRY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCES HAS SHOWN POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THUS... CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH THAT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THAT WE WILL BE
COMPLETELY DRY AT THIS TIME ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA (IF PRECIP
LINGER... LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WOULD SEE THE BEST
CHANCE/MOST). FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AS MENTIONED ABOVE
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
A COOL EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH AT LEAST SOME CLOUD COVER (MORE
EAST VS WEST). THUS... WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S... WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: NEXT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY... ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
HOWEVER... WITH LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL KEEP
POPS LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECT TO
WARM AGAIN... WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY...

UNSEASONABLY STRONG/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH FROM NEW
ENGLAND AND RESULT IN CLEAR/VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
YIELD TO BOTH INCREASING CIRRUS IN SW FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST...AND
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCT TO PERHAPS EVEN BKN STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN 2500-
4000 FT MAINLY AT EASTERN TERMINALS BETWEEN MID-MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND OVER CENTRAL NC...STRONGEST AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS AT EASTERN TERMINALS...
ALSO FROM MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THIS SYSTEM
MAY RESULT IN RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KFAY/KRWI/KRDU FRI
NIGHT-SAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE REGARDING THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS OVER CENTRAL NC...HOWEVER.

&&

.CLIMATE...

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING:

      THU 04/17

       LOW/YEAR
FAY:   31/1953
GSO:   29/1953
RDU:   29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>077-083>086.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 170204
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM WEDNESDAY...

PRESSURE READINGS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING AS
A STRONG 1036MB SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND REACHES DOWN THE EAST
COAST.  THE MAIN STORY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZE AND FROST. WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED IN SOME SPOTS...BUT THE
BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE IS KEEPING A LIGHT WIND STIRRING OVER MOST OF
THE AREA.  SHOULD SEE MORE AREAS DECOUPLE BY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.  HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN A BIT OVER EASTERN NC BY 09Z IN
RESPONSE TO A WESTWARD MIGRATING INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE...AND THE
RATE AT WHICH TEMPS FALL OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL SLOW AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SETTLES TOWARD THE PIEDMONT.  COULD ISSUE A FROST
ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN...BUT RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STAYING AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIXED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...AND
THE FROST SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY IN NATURE. THE FREEZE WARNING WILL
CONTINUE AS FORECAST. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF
STRATO CU OFFSHORE...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND LATE TONIGHT
AND TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY. -SMITH


THURSDAY...CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A
LONG NE FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO EASTERN NC. THIS FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT A SHALLOW THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...RESULTING IN A SCATTERED TO BRIEFLY BROKEN LAYER OF STRATOCU
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LAYER TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES
IF EVEN THAT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL THOUGH SOME
RECOVERY COMPARED TO TODAY ANTICIPATED. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES
PROJECTED TO BE ABOUT 20M WARMT THAN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SUGGEST
AFTERNOON TEMPS THURSDAY ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS IS MORE SIMILAR TO THE COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE. MAX TEMPS UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY /...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY....SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS
PARENT HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/CANADIAN
MARITIME DUE TO CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE AIR MASS UNDERNEATH
THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY...PRESENCE OF DRY AIR UNDER THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A BASICALLY CLOUD FREE ATMOSPHERE IN
THE LOWEST 10K FEET. MEANWHILE...A S/W IS PROJECTED TO MOVE EAST-SE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL NC PLAINS AND INTO THE TN VALLEY WHERE IT IS
PROJECTED TO BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A SYSTEM LIFTING E-NE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL BACK IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THESE SYSTEMS...TRANSPORTING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING VEIL
OF HIGH CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE THICKNESS OF THESE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHETHER SCATTERED FROST WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE PIEDMONT THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...LOW
LEVEL ELY FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY FRIDAY MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID 30S WEST TO UPPER
30S/AROUND 40 EAST.

SHOULD SEE AT A MINIMUM A MIXTURE OF SUN AND CLOUDS FRIDAY WITH THE
CHARACTER OF THE SKY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OR OVERCAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PRECIP FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ASIDE FROM A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS
THE FAR SE.

AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MODIFY BUT AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. MAX TEMPS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE WEEKEND FORECAST CONTINUES TO
HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF A POSSIBLE
CLOSED LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S/OFFSHORE. WHILE THE
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS PROGRESSIVE AND PUSHES EASTWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BOTH
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF PULLS MOISTURE NORTHWARD... AND PRODUCED SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST/EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING... WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE TO
OUR EAST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER... MODEL GUIDANCES IS STRUGGLING WITH
WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE LINGERING SOUTHERN STEAM ENERGY THAT
POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW AND LINGERS NEAR FL AND OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME A MORE IN THE LINE
WITH THE 12Z GFS IN SHOWING LINGERING MID LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE COAST TO KEEP US DRY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCES HAS SHOWN POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THUS... CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH THAT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THAT WE WILL BE
COMPLETELY DRY AT THIS TIME ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA (IF PRECIP
LINGER... LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WOULD SEE THE BEST
CHANCE/MOST). FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AS MENTIONED ABOVE
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
A COOL EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH AT LEAST SOME CLOUD COVER (MORE
EAST VS WEST). THUS... WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S... WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: NEXT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY... ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
HOWEVER... WITH LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL KEEP
POPS LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECT TO
WARM AGAIN... WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
LARGELY CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
PERIOD OF MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS WITH BASES BETWEEN 2500-3000KFT
ACROSS EASTERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OWING TO NELY MARITIME FLOW WHICH COULD SUPPORT A BROKEN DIURNALLY
ENHANCED FLAT STRATOCU DECK. OTHERWISE NELY WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 17 TO 20KTS...STRONGEST ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS.


OUTLOOK...A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN VICINITY OF THE NE
GULF AND THE FL PENINSULA MAY SPREAD ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NC
BY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TO CAUSE A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
ASSOCIATED VFR PARAMETERS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THU MORNING...AND
THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY:

            WED 04/16           THU 04/17

           LOW MAX/YEAR          LOW/YEAR
FAY:         56/1950             31/1953
GSO:         48/1929             29/1953
RDU:         46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>077-083>086.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...CBL/WSS
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 162318
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
720 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF NC
OVERNIGHT. BRISK NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY
EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT WHERE A FEW PLACES WILL
LIKELY DECOUPLE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THE COLD DRY AIR IN
PLACE COUPLED WITH THE NEAR CALM SFC WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL
EFFICIENTLY. STILL APPEARS TEMPS WILL FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING OVER
MOST OF THE PIEDMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN RECOVER ABOVE FREEZING
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AREAS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN MORE UNCERTAIN.
APPEARS THAT ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST TO KEEP TEMPS
UP A BIT AND ALSO PREVENT FROST FROM DEVELOPING. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO FREEZING TO UPGRADE THE FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR NASH
AND HALIFAX COUNTIES. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN SANDHILLS...LOCATIONS WELL-SHELTERED FROM THE WIND COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FROST.  WILL FOREGO A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME
DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED NATURE OF THE LIGHT FROST. MIN TEMPS 28-35.

THURSDAY...CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A
LONG NE FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO EASTERN NC. THIS FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT A SHALLOW THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...RESULTING IN A SCATTERED TO BRIEFLY BROKEN LAYER OF STRATOCU
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LAYER TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES
IF EVEN THAT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL THOUGH SOME
RECOVERY COMPARED TO TODAY ANTICIPATED. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES
PROJECTED TO BE ABOUT 20M WARMT THAN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SUGGEST
AFTERNOON TEMPS THURSDAY ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS IS MORE SIMILAR TO THE COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE. MAX TEMPS UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY /...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY....SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS
PARENT HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/CANADIAN
MARITIME DUE TO CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE AIR MASS UNDERNEATH
THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY...PRESENCE OF DRY AIR UNDER THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A BASICALLY CLOUD FREE ATMOSPHERE IN
THE LOWEST 10K FEET. MEANWHILE...A S/W IS PROJECTED TO MOVE EAST-SE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL NC PLAINS AND INTO THE TN VALLEY WHERE IT IS
PROJECTED TO BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A SYSTEM LIFTING E-NE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL BACK IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THESE SYSTEMS...TRANSPORTING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING VEIL
OF HIGH CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE THICKNESS OF THESE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHETHER SCATTERED FROST WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE PIEDMONT THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...LOW
LEVEL ELY FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY FRIDAY MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID 30S WEST TO UPPER
30S/AROUND 40 EAST.

SHOULD SEE AT A MINIMUM A MIXTURE OF SUN AND CLOUDS FRIDAY WITH THE
CHARACTER OF THE SKY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OR OVERCAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PRECIP FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ASIDE FROM A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS
THE FAR SE.

AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MODIFY BUT AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. MAX TEMPS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE WEEKEND FORECAST CONTINUES TO
HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF A POSSIBLE
CLOSED LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S/OFFSHORE. WHILE THE
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS PROGRESSIVE AND PUSHES EASTWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BOTH
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF PULLS MOISTURE NORTHWARD... AND PRODUCED SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST/EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING... WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE TO
OUR EAST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER... MODEL GUIDANCES IS STRUGGLING WITH
WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE LINGERING SOUTHERN STEAM ENERGY THAT
POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW AND LINGERS NEAR FL AND OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME A MORE IN THE LINE
WITH THE 12Z GFS IN SHOWING LINGERING MID LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE COAST TO KEEP US DRY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCES HAS SHOWN POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THUS... CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH THAT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THAT WE WILL BE
COMPLETELY DRY AT THIS TIME ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA (IF PRECIP
LINGER... LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WOULD SEE THE BEST
CHANCE/MOST). FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AS MENTIONED ABOVE
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
A COOL EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH AT LEAST SOME CLOUD COVER (MORE
EAST VS WEST). THUS... WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S... WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: NEXT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY... ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
HOWEVER... WITH LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL KEEP
POPS LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECT TO
WARM AGAIN... WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
LARGELY CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
PERIOD OF MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS WITH BASES BETWEEN 2500-3000KFT
ACROSS EASTERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OWING TO NELY MARITIME FLOW WHICH COULD SUPPORT A BROKEN DIURNALLY
ENHANCED FLAT STRATOCU DECK. OTHERWISE NELY WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 17 TO 20KTS...STRONGEST ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS.


OUTLOOK...A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN VICINITY OF THE NE
GULF AND THE FL PENINSULA MAY SPREAD ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NC
BY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TO CAUSE A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
ASSOCIATED VFR PARAMETERS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THU MORNING...AND
THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY:

            WED 04/16           THU 04/17

           LOW MAX/YEAR          LOW/YEAR
FAY:         56/1950             31/1953
GSO:         48/1929             29/1953
RDU:         46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>077-083>086.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...CBL/WSS
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 161932
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF NC
OVERNIGHT. BRISK NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY
EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT WHERE A FEW PLACES WILL
LIKELY DECOUPLE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THE COLD DRY AIR IN
PLACE COUPLED WITH THE NEAR CALM SFC WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL
EFFICIENTLY. STILL APPEARS TEMPS WILL FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING OVER
MOST OF THE PIEDMONT AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN RECOVER ABOVE FREEZING
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AREAS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN MORE UNCERTAIN.
APPEARS THAT ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST TO KEEP TEMPS
UP A BIT AND ALSO PREVENT FROST FROM DEVELOPING. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO FREEZING TO UPGRADE THE FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR NASH
AND HALIFAX COUNTIES. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN SANDHILLS...LOCATIONS WELL-SHELTERED FROM THE WIND COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FROST.  WILL FOREGO A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME
DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED NATURE OF THE LIGHT FROST. MIN TEMPS 28-35.

THURSDAY...CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A
LONG NE FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO EASTERN NC. THIS FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT A SHALLOW THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN...RESULTING IN A SCATTERED TO BRIEFLY BROKEN LAYER OF STRATOCU
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LAYER TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES
IF EVEN THAT.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL THOUGH SOME
RECOVERY COMPARED TO TODAY ANTICIPATED. AFTERNOON THICKNESSES
PROJECTED TO BE ABOUT 20M WARMT THAN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SUGGEST
AFTERNOON TEMPS THURSDAY ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS IS MORE SIMILAR TO THE COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE. MAX TEMPS UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY /...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY....SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ITS
INFLUENCE OVER THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS
PARENT HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/CANADIAN
MARITIME DUE TO CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE AIR MASS UNDERNEATH
THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY...PRESENCE OF DRY AIR UNDER THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A BASICALLY CLOUD FREE ATMOSPHERE IN
THE LOWEST 10K FEET. MEANWHILE...A S/W IS PROJECTED TO MOVE EAST-SE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL NC PLAINS AND INTO THE TN VALLEY WHERE IT IS
PROJECTED TO BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A SYSTEM LIFTING E-NE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL BACK IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THESE SYSTEMS...TRANSPORTING HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING VEIL
OF HIGH CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE THICKNESS OF THESE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN WHETHER SCATTERED FROST WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE PIEDMONT THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...LOW
LEVEL ELY FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN BY FRIDAY MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID 30S WEST TO UPPER
30S/AROUND 40 EAST.

SHOULD SEE AT A MINIMUM A MIXTURE OF SUN AND CLOUDS FRIDAY WITH THE
CHARACTER OF THE SKY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY OR OVERCAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PRECIP FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ASIDE FROM A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS
THE FAR SE.

AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MODIFY BUT AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. MAX TEMPS 60-65.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE WEEKEND FORECAST CONTINUES TO
HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF A POSSIBLE
CLOSED LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S/OFFSHORE. WHILE THE
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS PROGRESSIVE AND PUSHES EASTWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BOTH
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF PULLS MOISTURE NORTHWARD... AND PRODUCED SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST/EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING... WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE TO
OUR EAST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER... MODEL GUIDANCES IS STRUGGLING WITH
WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE LINGERING SOUTHERN STEAM ENERGY THAT
POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW AND LINGERS NEAR FL AND OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME A MORE IN THE LINE
WITH THE 12Z GFS IN SHOWING LINGERING MID LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE COAST TO KEEP US DRY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCES HAS SHOWN POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THUS... CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH THAT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THAT WE WILL BE
COMPLETELY DRY AT THIS TIME ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA (IF PRECIP
LINGER... LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WOULD SEE THE BEST
CHANCE/MOST). FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AS MENTIONED ABOVE
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
A COOL EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH AT LEAST SOME CLOUD COVER (MORE
EAST VS WEST). THUS... WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S... WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: NEXT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY... ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
HOWEVER... WITH LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL KEEP
POPS LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECT TO
WARM AGAIN... WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY NE WINDS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z. BY SUNSET...
EXPECT SFC WINDS FROM THE NE BETWEEN 4-8KTS.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SFC HIGH WILL RESULT IN A LONG NE FETCH
OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO EASTERN NC. THIS WILL TRANSPORT A THIN SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO OUR EASTERN TERMINALS...CAUSING A LAYER OF
STRATOCU TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH CLOUD BASES BETWEEN
2500-4000FT. MAY SEE A 3-5 HOUR WINDOW OF BROKEN CEILINGS IN THE
VICINITY OF KRWI AND POSSIBLY KFAY LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN VICINITY OF THE NE
GULF AND THE FL PENINSULA MAY SPREAD ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NC
BY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TO CAUSE A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
ASSOCIATED VFR PARAMETERS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THU MORNING...AND
THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY:

            WED 04/16           THU 04/17

           LOW MAX/YEAR          LOW/YEAR
FAY:         56/1950             31/1953
GSO:         48/1929             29/1953
RDU:         46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>077-083>086.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 161903
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
301 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUAL INCREASE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS L/W TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO LIFT
NEWD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL TRANSLATE E-NE THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH THEN STRENGTHEN AND BECOME ANCHORED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO CONFLUENT MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. LOW LEVEL N-NE FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN CAA
RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH AS 50-55M
BELOW NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S APPEAR ON TARGET AT THIS
TIME. -WSS

TONIGHT: (NEAR) RECORD COLD. PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
AROUND 1305 METERS AT GSO AT 12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT MIDDLE 20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB
RISE TONIGHT IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING
HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY STIRRING FOR
MOST AREAS...THOUGH WEAKEST AND WITH LIKELY PERIODS OF CALM IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS...OVER THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE THE NE STIRRING WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED IN A
STRONGER MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT/AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS...OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT
TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS
SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO DISPLAY A RELATIVELY LARGE
RANGE...FROM 27-30 DEGREES IN RURAL WESTERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS) TO AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN
AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD...TO 33-37 DEGREES IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS.

THU AND THU NIGHT: GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG/1045 MB POLAR HIGH CENTERED OVER MAINE EARLY THU WILL ENSUE
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE IN NE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT/WESTWARD EXPANSION OF A MOSTLY
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WITH DIURNAL HEATING THU...PERHAPS
BRIEFLY BROKEN IN EASTERN AREAS...WITH DRY ADIABATIC MIXING AGAIN
THROUGH 900 MB SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 60 AND 65 DEGREES -
IN LINE WITH PROJECTED 24 HOUR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISES OF ABOUT 30
METERS OF THOSE OF WED. CHILLY WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...
DESPITE A FEW LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A THIN VEIL
OF CIRRUS ATTENDING A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE - LOWS OF 36 TO 42
DEGREES. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RURAL WESTERN PIEDMONT
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY /...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE AND THE SUBSEQUENT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CAA INTO CENTRAL NC ON
FRIDAY. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL AT LEAST BE DESCENT COVERAGE OF
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SO...FOR NOW...EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER THE ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW
OFF THE COAST OF FL SATURDAY MORNING WHERE IT STALLS OUT...WHILE THE
GFS TROUGH PROGRESSES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF FORECASTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE MID
40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SE. HIGHS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
WEAKENING ON SATURDAY EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE WEEKEND FORECAST CONTINUES TO
HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF A POSSIBLE
CLOSED LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S/OFFSHORE. WHILE THE
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS PROGRESSIVE AND PUSHES EASTWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BOTH
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF PULLS MOISTURE NORTHWARD... AND PRODUCED SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST/EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING... WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE TO
OUR EAST AND SOUTH. HOWEVER... MODEL GUIDANCES IS STRUGGLING WITH
WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE LINGERING SOUTHERN STEAM ENERGY THAT
POSSIBLY CLOSES OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW AND LINGERS NEAR FL AND OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS COME A MORE IN THE LINE
WITH THE 12Z GFS IN SHOWING LINGERING MID LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE COAST TO KEEP US DRY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...
GUIDANCES HAS SHOWN POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THUS... CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH THAT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THAT WE WILL BE
COMPLETELY DRY AT THIS TIME ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA (IF PRECIP
LINGER... LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WOULD SEE THE BEST
CHANCE/MOST). FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AS MENTIONED ABOVE
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
A COOL EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH AT LEAST SOME CLOUD COVER (MORE
EAST VS WEST). THUS... WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS THIS WEEKEND IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S... WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: NEXT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY... ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
HOWEVER... WITH LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN WILL KEEP
POPS LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECT TO
WARM AGAIN... WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY NE WINDS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z. BY SUNSET...
EXPECT SFC WINDS FROM THE NE BETWEEN 4-8KTS.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SFC HIGH WILL RESULT IN A LONG NE FETCH
OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO EASTERN NC. THIS WILL TRANSPORT A THIN SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO OUR EASTERN TERMINALS...CAUSING A LAYER OF
STRATOCU TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH CLOUD BASES BETWEEN
2500-4000FT. MAY SEE A 3-5 HOUR WINDOW OF BROKEN CEILINGS IN THE
VICINITY OF KRWI AND POSSIBLY KFAY LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN VICINITY OF THE NE
GULF AND THE FL PENINSULA MAY SPREAD ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NC
BY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TO CAUSE A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
ASSOCIATED VFR PARAMETERS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THU MORNING...AND
THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY:

            WED 04/16           THU 04/17

           LOW MAX/YEAR          LOW/YEAR
FAY:         56/1950             31/1953
GSO:         48/1929             29/1953
RDU:         46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083>086.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ011-027.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS/MWS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 161755
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
155 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUAL INCREASE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS L/W TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO LIFT
NEWD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL TRANSLATE E-NE THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH THEN STRENGTHEN AND BECOME ANCHORED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO CONFLUENT MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. LOW LEVEL N-NE FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN CAA
RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH AS 50-55M
BELOW NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S APPEAR ON TARGET AT THIS
TIME. -WSS

TONIGHT: (NEAR) RECORD COLD. PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
AROUND 1305 METERS AT GSO AT 12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT MIDDLE 20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB
RISE TONIGHT IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING
HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY STIRRING FOR
MOST AREAS...THOUGH WEAKEST AND WITH LIKELY PERIODS OF CALM IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS...OVER THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE THE NE STIRRING WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED IN A
STRONGER MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT/AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS...OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT
TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS
SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO DISPLAY A RELATIVELY LARGE
RANGE...FROM 27-30 DEGREES IN RURAL WESTERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS) TO AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN
AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD...TO 33-37 DEGREES IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS.

THU AND THU NIGHT: GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG/1045 MB POLAR HIGH CENTERED OVER MAINE EARLY THU WILL ENSUE
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE IN NE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT/WESTWARD EXPANSION OF A MOSTLY
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WITH DIURNAL HEATING THU...PERHAPS
BRIEFLY BROKEN IN EASTERN AREAS...WITH DRY ADIABATIC MIXING AGAIN
THROUGH 900 MB SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 60 AND 65 DEGREES -
IN LINE WITH PROJECTED 24 HOUR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISES OF ABOUT 30
METERS OF THOSE OF WED. CHILLY WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...
DESPITE A FEW LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A THIN VEIL
OF CIRRUS ATTENDING A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE - LOWS OF 36 TO 42
DEGREES. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RURAL WESTERN PIEDMONT
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE AND THE SUBSEQUENT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CAA INTO CENTRAL NC ON
FRIDAY. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL AT LEAST BE DESCENT COVERAGE OF
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SO...FOR NOW...EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER THE ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW
OFF THE COAST OF FL SATURDAY MORNING WHERE IT STALLS OUT...WHILE THE
GFS TROUGH PROGRESSES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF FORECASTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE MID
40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SE. HIGHS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
WEAKENING ON SATURDAY EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

AS THE LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM NC...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC MONDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE
AGREEMENT WITH THE SPECIFICS ABOUT THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL AT
LEAST BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN DURING THIS TIME...THUS WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND
70 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. BREEZY NE WINDS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER 21Z. BY SUNSET...
EXPECT SFC WINDS FROM THE NE BETWEEN 4-8KTS.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SFC HIGH WILL RESULT IN A LONG NE FETCH
OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO EASTERN NC. THIS WILL TRANSPORT A THIN SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO OUR EASTERN TERMINALS...CAUSING A LAYER OF
STRATOCU TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH CLOUD BASES BETWEEN
2500-4000FT. MAY SEE A 3-5 HOUR WINDOW OF BROKEN CEILINGS IN THE
VICINITY OF KRWI AND POSSIBLY KFAY LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN VICINITY OF THE NE
GULF AND THE FL PENINSULA MAY SPREAD ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NC
BY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TO CAUSE A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS. IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
ASSOCIATED VFR PARAMETERS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THU MORNING...AND
THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY:

            WED 04/16           THU 04/17

           LOW MAX/YEAR          LOW/YEAR
FAY:         56/1950             31/1953
GSO:         48/1929             29/1953
RDU:         46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083>086.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ011-027.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS/MWS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...WSS
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 161435
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1035 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1035 AM WEDNESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUAL INCREASE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS L/W TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO LIFT
NEWD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL TRANSLATE E-NE THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH THEN STRENGTHEN AND BECOME ANCHORED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO CONFLUENT MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. LOW LEVEL N-NE FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN CAA
RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES THIS AFTERNOON AS MUCH AS 50-55M
BELOW NORMAL...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 50S APPEAR ON TARGET AT THIS
TIME. -WSS

TONIGHT: (NEAR) RECORD COLD. PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
AROUND 1305 METERS AT GSO AT 12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT MIDDLE 20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB
RISE TONIGHT IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING
HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY STIRRING FOR
MOST AREAS...THOUGH WEAKEST AND WITH LIKELY PERIODS OF CALM IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS...OVER THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE THE NE STIRRING WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED IN A
STRONGER MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT/AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS...OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT
TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS
SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO DISPLAY A RELATIVELY LARGE
RANGE...FROM 27-30 DEGREES IN RURAL WESTERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS) TO AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN
AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD...TO 33-37 DEGREES IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS.

THU AND THU NIGHT: GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG/1045 MB POLAR HIGH CENTERED OVER MAINE EARLY THU WILL ENSUE
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE IN NE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT/WESTWARD EXPANSION OF A MOSTLY
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WITH DIURNAL HEATING THU...PERHAPS
BRIEFLY BROKEN IN EASTERN AREAS...WITH DRY ADIABATIC MIXING AGAIN
THROUGH 900 MB SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 60 AND 65 DEGREES -
IN LINE WITH PROJECTED 24 HOUR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISES OF ABOUT 30
METERS OF THOSE OF WED. CHILLY WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...
DESPITE A FEW LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A THIN VEIL
OF CIRRUS ATTENDING A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE - LOWS OF 36 TO 42
DEGREES. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RURAL WESTERN PIEDMONT
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE AND THE SUBSEQUENT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CAA INTO CENTRAL NC ON
FRIDAY. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL AT LEAST BE DESCENT COVERAGE OF
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SO...FOR NOW...EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER THE ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW
OFF THE COAST OF FL SATURDAY MORNING WHERE IT STALLS OUT...WHILE THE
GFS TROUGH PROGRESSES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF FORECASTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE MID
40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SE. HIGHS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
WEAKENING ON SATURDAY EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

AS THE LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM NC...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC MONDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE
AGREEMENT WITH THE SPECIFICS ABOUT THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL AT
LEAST BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN DURING THIS TIME...THUS WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND
70 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM WEDNESDAY...

CLEAR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AS
UNSEASONABLY STRONG/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THE INFLUX OF THE COLD/DRY AND DENSE AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY (NE) CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY-
EARLY AFTERNOON...STRONGEST AT EASTERN TERMINALS...AND MAXIMIZED
BETWEEN 14-17Z. ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT
IN THE WESTWARD EXPANSION/ADVECTION OF IFR-MVFR CLOUDS INTO COASTAL
AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO PERHAPS
EVEN BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 1000 FT...AROUND 12Z THU...MAINLY AT KRWI.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE IN NE FLOW WILL THEN EXPAND
WESTWARD AND RESULT IN GENERALLY SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY JUST
ABOVE 3000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY THU. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
THEN POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
NOCTURNALLY COOLS AND MOISTURE IN ENE FLOW FURTHER INCREASES/RESULTS
IN INCREASING RH AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.CLIMATE...

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THU MORNING...AND
THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY:

            WED 04/16           THU 04/17

           LOW MAX/YEAR          LOW/YEAR
FAY:         56/1950             31/1953
GSO:         48/1929             29/1953
RDU:         46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083>086.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ011-027.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS/MWS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 161127
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
727 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...

UPDATED FOR HEADLINE SECTION FOR UPGRADE OF FREEZE WATCH TO A
WARNING...FROM MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM THU...OVER ALL BUT THE COASTAL
PLAIN COUNTIES. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HALIFAX AND
NASH COUNTIES.

TODAY: IN THE STRONGLY SUBSIDENT WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
NOW NEARING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND DEEP DRYNESS ABOVE...WHICH WAS OBSERVED BY 00Z/16TH
RAOB DATA UPSTREAM AT FFC AND BNA...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. A SUNNY DAY WILL RESULT...ALBEIT AN UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY ONE...OWING TO BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW (PARTICULARLY FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE COASTAL PLAIN) AROUND A
POLAR HIGH FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MIGRATING FROM THE OH VALLEY
TO NEW ENGLAND. INDEED...DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900 MB...WITH
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT COOL BIAS
WITH THIS TECHNIQUE...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN ONLY THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S - SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE - AND THUS THREATENING THE RECORD
LOW MAX OF 56 DEGREES FOR THE DATE AT KFAY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.

TONIGHT: (NEAR) RECORD COLD. PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
AROUND 1305 METERS AT GSO AT 12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT MIDDLE 20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB
RISE TONIGHT IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING
HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY STIRRING FOR
MOST AREAS...THOUGH WEAKEST AND WITH LIKELY PERIODS OF CALM IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS...OVER THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE THE NE STIRRING WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED IN A
STRONGER MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT/AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS...OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT
TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS
SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO DISPLAY A RELATIVELY LARGE
RANGE...FROM 27-30 DEGREES IN RURAL WESTERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS) TO AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN
AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD...TO 33-37 DEGREES IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. A FROST ADVISORY WILL
CONSEQUENTLY LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN...ISSUED FOR THE
FIRST PERIOD/LATER TODAY.

THU AND THU NIGHT: GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG/1045 MB POLAR HIGH CENTERED OVER MAINE EARLY THU WILL ENSUE
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE IN NE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT/WESTWARD EXPANSION OF A MOSTLY
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WITH DIURNAL HEATING THU...PERHAPS
BRIEFLY BROKEN IN EASTERN AREAS...WITH DRY ADIABATIC MIXING AGAIN
THROUGH 900 MB SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 60 AND 65 DEGREES -
IN LINE WITH PROJECTED 24 HOUR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISES OF ABOUT 30
METERS OF THOSE OF WED. CHILLY WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...
DESPITE A FEW LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A THIN VEIL
OF CIRRUS ATTENDING A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE - LOWS OF 36 TO 42
DEGREES. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RURAL WESTERN PIEDMONT
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE AND THE SUBSEQUENT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CAA INTO CENTRAL NC ON
FRIDAY. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL AT LEAST BE DESCENT COVERAGE OF
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SO...FOR NOW...EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER THE ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW
OFF THE COAST OF FL SATURDAY MORNING WHERE IT STALLS OUT...WHILE THE
GFS TROUGH PROGRESSES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF FORECASTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE MID
40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SE. HIGHS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
WEAKENING ON SATURDAY EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

AS THE LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM NC...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC MONDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE
AGREEMENT WITH THE SPECIFICS ABOUT THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL AT
LEAST BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN DURING THIS TIME...THUS WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND
70 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM WEDNESDAY...

CLEAR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AS
UNSEASONABLY STRONG/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THE INFLUX OF THE COLD/DRY AND DENSE AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY (NE) CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY-
EARLY AFTERNOON...STRONGEST AT EASTERN TERMINALS...AND MAXIMIZED
BETWEEN 14-17Z. ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT
IN THE WESTWARD EXPANSION/ADVECTION OF IFR-MVFR CLOUDS INTO COASTAL
AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO PERHAPS
EVEN BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 1000 FT...AROUND 12Z THU...MAINLY AT KRWI.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE IN NE FLOW WILL THEN EXPAND
WESTWARD AND RESULT IN GENERALLY SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY JUST
ABOVE 3000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY THU. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
THEN POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
NOCTURNALLY COOLS AND MOISTURE IN ENE FLOW FURTHER INCREASES/RESULTS
IN INCREASING RH AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.CLIMATE...

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THU MORNING...AND
THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY:

            WED 04/16           THU 04/17

           LOW MAX/YEAR          LOW/YEAR
FAY:         56/1950             31/1953
GSO:         48/1929             29/1953
RDU:         46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083>086.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ011-027.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 161124
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
724 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...

UPDATED FOR HEADLINE SECTION FOR UPGRADE OF FREEZE WATCH TO A
WARNING...FROM MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM THU...OVER ALL BUT THE COASTAL
PLAIN COUNTIES. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HALIFAX AND
NASH COUNTIES.

TODAY: IN THE STRONGLY SUBSIDENT WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
NOW NEARING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND DEEP DRYNESS ABOVE...WHICH WAS OBSERVED BY 00Z/16TH
RAOB DATA UPSTREAM AT FFC AND BNA...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. A SUNNY DAY WILL RESULT...ALBEIT AN UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY ONE...OWING TO BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW (PARTICULARLY FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE COASTAL PLAIN) AROUND A
POLAR HIGH FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MIGRATING FROM THE OH VALLEY
TO NEW ENGLAND. INDEED...DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900 MB...WITH
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT COOL BIAS
WITH THIS TECHNIQUE...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN ONLY THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S - SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE - AND THUS THREATENING THE RECORD
LOW MAX OF 56 DEGREES FOR THE DATE AT KFAY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.

TONIGHT: (NEAR) RECORD COLD. PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
AROUND 1305 METERS AT GSO AT 12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT MIDDLE 20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB
RISE TONIGHT IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING
HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY STIRRING FOR
MOST AREAS...THOUGH WEAKEST AND WITH LIKELY PERIODS OF CALM IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS...OVER THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. MEANWHILE THE NE STIRRING WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED IN A
STRONGER MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT/AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS...OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. IN ADDITION...ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT
TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS
SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO DISPLAY A RELATIVELY LARGE
RANGE...FROM 27-30 DEGREES IN RURAL WESTERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS) TO AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN
AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD...TO 33-37 DEGREES IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. A FROST ADVISORY WILL
CONSEQUENTLY LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN...ISSUED FOR THE
FIRST PERIOD/LATER TODAY.

THU AND THU NIGHT: GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG/1045 MB POLAR HIGH CENTERED OVER MAINE EARLY THU WILL ENSUE
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE IN NE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT/WESTWARD EXPANSION OF A MOSTLY
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WITH DIURNAL HEATING THU...PERHAPS
BRIEFLY BROKEN IN EASTERN AREAS...WITH DRY ADIABATIC MIXING AGAIN
THROUGH 900 MB SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 60 AND 65 DEGREES -
IN LINE WITH PROJECTED 24 HOUR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISES OF ABOUT 30
METERS OF THOSE OF WED. CHILLY WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...
DESPITE A FEW LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A THIN VEIL
OF CIRRUS ATTENDING A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE - LOWS OF 36 TO 42
DEGREES. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RURAL WESTERN PIEDMONT
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE AND THE SUBSEQUENT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CAA INTO CENTRAL NC ON
FRIDAY. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL AT LEAST BE DESCENT COVERAGE OF
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SO...FOR NOW...EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER THE ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW
OFF THE COAST OF FL SATURDAY MORNING WHERE IT STALLS OUT...WHILE THE
GFS TROUGH PROGRESSES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF FORECASTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE MID
40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SE. HIGHS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
WEAKENING ON SATURDAY EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

AS THE LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM NC...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC MONDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE
AGREEMENT WITH THE SPECIFICS ABOUT THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL AT
LEAST BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN DURING THIS TIME...THUS WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND
70 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM WEDNESDAY...

CLEAR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AS
UNSEASONABLY STRONG/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THE INFLUX OF THE COLD/DRY AND DENSE AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY (NE) CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY-
EARLY AFTERNOON...STRONGEST AT EASTERN TERMINALS...AND MAXIMIZED
BETWEEN 14-17Z. ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT
IN THE WESTWARD EXPANSION/ADVECTION OF IFR-MVFR CLOUDS INTO COASTAL
AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO PERHAPS
EVEN BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 1000 FT...AROUND 12Z THU...MAINLY AT KRWI.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE IN NE FLOW WILL THEN EXPAND
WESTWARD AND RESULT IN GENERALLY SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY JUST
ABOVE 3000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY THU. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
THEN POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
NOCTURNALLY COOLS AND MOISTURE IN ENE FLOW FURTHER INCREASES/RESULTS
IN INCREASING RH AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16           THU 04/17

           LOW MAX/YEAR          LOW/YEAR
FAY:         56/1950             31/1953
GSO:         48/1929             29/1953
RDU:         46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083>086.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ011-027.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 160818
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
418 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...

UPDATED FOR HEADLINE SECTION FOR UPGRADE OF FREEZE WATCH TO A
WARNING...FROM MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM THU...OVER ALL BUT THE COASTAL
PLAIN COUNTIES. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HALIFAX AND
NASH COUNTIES.

TODAY: IN THE STRONGLY SUBSIDENT WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
NOW NEARING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND DEEP DRYNESS ABOVE...WHICH WAS OBSERVED BY 00Z/16TH
RAOB DATA UPSTREAM AT FFC AND BNA...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. A SUNNY DAY WILL RESULT...ALBEIT AN UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY ONE...OWING TO BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW (PARTICULARLY FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE COASTAL PLAIN) AROUND A
POLAR HIGH FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MIGRATING FROM THE OH VALLEY
TO NEW ENGLAND. INDEED...DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900 MB...WITH
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT COOL BIAS
WITH THIS TECHNIQUE...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN ONLY THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S - SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE - AND THUS THREATENING THE RECORD
LOW MAX OF 56 DEGREES FOR THE DAT AT KFAY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.

TONIGHT: PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1305 METERS AT
GSO AT 12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT
MIDDLE 20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE TONIGHT IN MSL
PRESSURE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING HIGH TO OUR NORTH
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY STIRRING FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH WEAKEST AND WITH LIKELY PERIODS OF CALM IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS...OVER THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.
MEANWHILE THE NE STIRRING WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED IN A STRONGER MSL
PRESSURE GRADIENT/AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS...OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
IN ADDITION...ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
BENEATH THE CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS
MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO
DISPLAY A RELATIVELY LARGE RANGE...FROM 28-30 DEGREES IN RURAL
WESTERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS)
TO AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE
TRIAD...TO 33-36 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS.
A FROST ADVISORY WILL CONSEQUENTLY LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN...ISSUED FOR THE FIRST PERIOD/LATER TODAY.

THU AND THU NIGHT: GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG/1045 MB POLAR HIGH CENTERED OVER MAINE EARLY THU WILL ENSUE
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE IN NE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT/WESTWARD EXPANSION OF A MOSTLY
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WITH DIURNAL HEATING THU...PERHAPS
BRIEFLY BROKEN IN EASTERN AREAS...WITH DRY ADIABATIC MIXING AGAIN
THROUGH 900 MB SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 60 AND 65 DEGREES -
IN LINE WITH PROJECTED 24 HOUR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISES OF ABOUT 30
METERS OF THOSE OF WED. CHILLY WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...
DESPITE A FEW LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A THIN VEIL
OF CIRRUS ATTENDING A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE - LOWS OF 36 TO 42
DEGREES. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RURAL WESTERN PIEDMONT
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE AND THE SUBSEQUENT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CAA INTO CENTRAL NC ON
FRIDAY. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL AT LEAST BE DESCENT COVERAGE OF
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SO...FOR NOW...EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER THE ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW
OFF THE COAST OF FL SATURDAY MORNING WHERE IT STALLS OUT...WHILE THE
GFS TROUGH PROGRESSES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF FORECASTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE MID
40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SE. HIGHS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
WEAKENING ON SATURDAY EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

AS THE LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM NC...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC MONDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE
AGREEMENT WITH THE SPECIFICS ABOUT THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL AT
LEAST BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN DURING THIS TIME...THUS WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND
70 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...

MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH 09Z AT KRWI AND JUST EAST OF
KRDU/KFAY...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN OFFSHORE/EASTBOUND COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE INFLUX OF THE COLD/DRY AND DENSE
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON...STRONGEST AT EASTERN TERMINALS...
AND MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 14-17Z. ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL RESULT IN THE WESTWARD EXPANSION/ADVECTION OF MVFR CLOUDS FROM
COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS EVEN BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 3000 FT...JUST BEYOND THE
06Z TAF PERIOD...MAINLY AT KRWI.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED MVFR MOISTURE WILL THEN EXPAND WESTWARD
AND RESULT IN GENERALLY SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY JUST ABOVE
3000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY THU. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
NOCTURNALLY COOLS AND MOISTURE IN ENE FLOW FURTHER INCREASES/RESULTS
IN INCREASING RH AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT).

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083>086.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ011-027.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 160702 CCA
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...

TODAY: IN THE STRONGLY SUBSIDENT WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
NOW NEARING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND DEEP DRYNESS ABOVE...WHICH WAS OBSERVED BY 00Z/16TH
RAOB DATA UPSTREAM AT FFC AND BNA...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. A SUNNY DAY WILL RESULT...ALBEIT AN UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY ONE...OWING TO BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW (PARTICULARLY FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE COASTAL PLAIN) AROUND A
POLAR HIGH FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MIGRATING FROM THE OH VALLEY
TO NEW ENGLAND. INDEED...DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900 MB...WITH
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT COOL BIAS
WITH THIS TECHNIQUE...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN ONLY THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S - SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE - AND THUS THREATENING THE RECORD
LOW MAX OF 56 DEGREES FOR THE DAT AT KFAY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.

TONIGHT: PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1305 METERS AT
GSO AT 12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT
MIDDLE 20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE TONIGHT IN MSL
PRESSURE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING HIGH TO OUR NORTH
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY STIRRING FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH WEAKEST AND WITH LIKELY PERIODS OF CALM IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS...OVER THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.
MEANWHILE THE NE STIRRING WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED IN A STRONGER MSL
PRESSURE GRADIENT/AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS...OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
IN ADDITION...ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
BENEATH THE CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS
MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO
DISPLAY A RELATIVELY LARGE RANGE...FROM 28-30 DEGREES IN RURAL
WESTERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS)
TO AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE
TRIAD...TO 33-36 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS.
A FROST ADVISORY WILL CONSEQUENTLY LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN...ISSUED FOR THE FIRST PERIOD/LATER TODAY.

THU AND THU NIGHT: GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG/1045 MB POLAR HIGH CENTERED OVER MAINE EARLY THU WILL ENSUE
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE IN NE
FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT/WESTWARD EXPANSION OF A MOSTLY
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WITH DIURNAL HEATING THU...PERHAPS
BRIEFLY BROKEN IN EASTERN AREAS...WITH DRY ADIABATIC MIXING AGAIN
THROUGH 900 MB SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 60 AND 65 DEGREES -
IN LINE WITH PROJECTED 24 HOUR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISES OF ABOUT 30
METERS OF THOSE OF WED. CHILLY WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...
DESPITE A FEW LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A THIN VEIL
OF CIRRUS ATTENDING A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE - LOWS OF 36 TO 42
DEGREES. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RURAL WESTERN PIEDMONT
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE AND THE SUBSEQUENT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CAA INTO CENTRAL NC ON
FRIDAY. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL AT LEAST BE DESCENT COVERAGE OF
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SO...FOR NOW...EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER THE ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW
OFF THE COAST OF FL SATURDAY MORNING WHERE IT STALLS OUT...WHILE THE
GFS TROUGH PROGRESSES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF FORECASTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE MID
40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SE. HIGHS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
WEAKENING ON SATURDAY EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

AS THE LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM NC...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC MONDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE
AGREEMENT WITH THE SPECIFICS ABOUT THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL AT
LEAST BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN DURING THIS TIME...THUS WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND
70 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...

MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH 09Z AT KRWI AND JUST EAST OF
KRDU/KFAY...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN OFFSHORE/EASTBOUND COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE INFLUX OF THE COLD/DRY AND DENSE
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON...STRONGEST AT EASTERN TERMINALS...
AND MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 14-17Z. ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL RESULT IN THE WESTWARD EXPANSION/ADVECTION OF MVFR CLOUDS FROM
COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS EVEN BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 3000 FT...JUST BEYOND THE
06Z TAF PERIOD...MAINLY AT KRWI.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED MVFR MOISTURE WILL THEN EXPAND WESTWARD
AND RESULT IN GENERALLY SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY JUST ABOVE
3000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY THU. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
NOCTURNALLY COOLS AND MOISTURE IN ENE FLOW FURTHER INCREASES/RESULTS
IN INCREASING RH AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT).

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>077-083>086.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 160700
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
242 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...

TODAY: IN THE STRONGLY SUBSIDENT WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
NOW NEARING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND DEEP DRYNESS ABOVE...WHICH WAS OBSERVED BY 00Z/16TH
RAOB DATA UPSTREAM AT FFC AND BNA...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. A SUNNY DAY WILL RESULT...ALBEIT AN UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY ONE...OWING TO BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW (PARTICULARLY FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE COASTAL PLAIN) AROUND A
POLAR HIGH FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MIGRATING FROM THE OH VALLEY
TO NEW ENGLAND. INDEED...DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900 MB...WITH
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT COOL BIAS
WITH THIS TECHNIQUE...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN ONLY THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S
- SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE - AND THUS THREATENING THE RECORD
LOW MAX OF 56 DEGREES FOR THE DAT AT KFAY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.

TONIGHT: PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1305 METERS AT
GSO AT 12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT
MIDDLE 20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE TONIGHT IN MSL
PRESSURE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING HIGH TO OUR NORTH
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY STIRRING FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH WEAKEST AND WITH LIKELY PERIODS OF CALM IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS...OVER THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.
MEANWHILE THE NE STIRRING WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED IN A STRONGER MSL
PRESSURE GRADIENT/AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS...OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
IN ADDITION...ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTION IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
BENEATH THE CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS
MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO
DISPLAY A RELATIVELY LARGE RANGE...FROM 28-30 DEGREES IN RURAL
WESTERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS)
TO AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE
TRIAD...TO 33-36 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS.
A FROST ADVISORY WILL CONSEQUENTLY LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN...ISSUED FOR THE FIRST PERIOD/LATER TODAY.  THU AND THU NIGHT:
GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG/1045 MB POLAR HIGH
CENTERED OVER MAINE EARLY THU WILL ENSUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE IN NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT/WESTWARD EXPANSION OF A MOSTLY SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD WITH DIURNAL HEATING THU...PERHAPS BRIEFLY BROKEN IN EASTERN
AREAS...WITH DRY ADIABATIC MIXING AGAIN THROUGH 900 MB SUPPORTIVE OF
HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 60 AND 65 DEGREES -IN LINE WITH PROJECTED 24
HOUR LOW LEVEL THICKNESS RISES OF ABOUT 30 METERS OF THOSE OF WED.
CHILLY WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE A FEW LINGERING
STRATOCUMULUS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A THIN VEIL OF CIRRUS ATTENDING A
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE - LOWS OF 36 TO 42 DEGREES. PATCHY FROST WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN RURAL WESTERN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE AND THE SUBSEQUENT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CAA INTO CENTRAL NC ON
FRIDAY. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL AT LEAST BE DESCENT COVERAGE OF
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SO...FOR NOW...EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER THE ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW
OFF THE COAST OF FL SATURDAY MORNING WHERE IT STALLS OUT...WHILE THE
GFS TROUGH PROGRESSES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF FORECASTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE MID
40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SE. HIGHS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
WEAKENING ON SATURDAY EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

AS THE LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM NC...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC MONDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE
AGREEMENT WITH THE SPECIFICS ABOUT THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL AT
LEAST BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN DURING THIS TIME...THUS WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND
70 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...

MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH 09Z AT KRWI AND JUST EAST OF
KRDU/KFAY...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN OFFSHORE/EASTBOUND COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE INFLUX OF THE COLD/DRY AND DENSE
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON...STRONGEST AT EASTERN TERMINALS...
AND MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 14-17Z. ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL RESULT IN THE WESTWARD EXPANSION/ADVECTION OF MVFR CLOUDS FROM
COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS EVEN BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 3000 FT...JUST BEYOND THE
06Z TAF PERIOD...MAINLY AT KRWI.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED MVFR MOISTURE WILL THEN EXPAND WESTWARD
AND RESULT IN GENERALLY SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY JUST ABOVE
3000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY THU. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
NOCTURNALLY COOLS AND MOISTURE IN ENE FLOW FURTHER INCREASES/RESULTS
IN INCREASING RH AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT).

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>077-083>086.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 160642
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
242 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 920 PM TUESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: VIGOROUS COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND WILL EXIT OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...JUST AHEAD OF THE EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT. COASTAL COUNTES WILL SEE
ANOTHER HOUR OR PRECIP WITH RAPID WEST TO EAST CLEARING FOLLOWING
SUIT...REACHING EASTERN CWA BY 06Z-08Z.

9 PM EDT TEMPERATES ARE RANGING FROM LOWER 40 NW PIEDMONT TO AROUND
50 ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE ACCOUNTING FOR PREDICTED TRENDS AND
UPSTREAM TEMPS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 30-36 RANGE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC... AND HAVE KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE AS IS WITH
THE ADDITION OF HALIFAX COUNTY IN OUR NE. TEMPS IN THIS FREEZE
WARNING AREA SHOULD HOVER NEAR OR JUST UNDER FREEZING FOR 3-5 HOURS
OVERNIGHT... PARTICULARLY IN THE OUTLYING AND RURAL AREAS.

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: WITH ANOMALOUSLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NW AND N THROUGH THE DAY... EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH A DRY
AND HIGHLY STABLE COLUMN. THICKNESSES ARE STILL PROJECTED TO START
THE DAY OVER 70 M BELOW NORMAL... AND TAKING THE ANTICIPATED 925 MB
TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE DRY ADIABATICALLY YIELDS HIGHS ONLY AROUND
50 DEGREES. ACCOUNTING FOR AT LEAST SOME HEAT FLUX FROM THE
GROUND... WILL MAINTAIN HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 51-56 DEGREE
RANGE. AS THE WINDS DROP OFF SLOWLY WED NIGHT UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES... GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A DRY SURFACE AIR MASS WILL
AGAIN BRING A THREAT FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF CENTRAL NC... AND HAVE POSTED A FREEZE WATCH FOR WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING FOR AREAS ROUGHLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
ROANOKE RAPIDS TO RALEIGH TO LAURINBURG. A SURFACE WINDS TAKE ON A
MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT AND BEGIN TO DRAW IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
TOWARD THU MORNING... SOUTHEAST SECTIONS MAY SEE PATCHY STRATUS FORM
LATE. LOWS 39-35. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE AND THE SUBSEQUENT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CAA INTO CENTRAL NC ON
FRIDAY. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL AT LEAST BE DESCENT COVERAGE OF
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SO...FOR NOW...EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE
FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER THE ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW
OFF THE COAST OF FL SATURDAY MORNING WHERE IT STALLS OUT...WHILE THE
GFS TROUGH PROGRESSES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...THE ECMWF FORECASTS RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE MID
40S NW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SE. HIGHS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
WEAKENING ON SATURDAY EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...

AS THE LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM NC...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH CENTRAL NC MONDAY NIGHT AND PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE MODELS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE
AGREEMENT WITH THE SPECIFICS ABOUT THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL AT
LEAST BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN DURING THIS TIME...THUS WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND
70 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...

MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH 09Z AT KRWI AND JUST EAST OF
KRDU/KFAY...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN OFFSHORE/EASTBOUND COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE INFLUX OF THE COLD/DRY AND DENSE
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON...STRONGEST AT EASTERN TERMINALS...
AND MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 14-17Z. ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL RESULT IN THE WESTWARD EXPANSION/ADVECTION OF MVFR CLOUDS FROM
COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS EVEN BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 3000 FT...JUST BEYOND THE
06Z TAF PERIOD...MAINLY AT KRWI.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED MVFR MOISTURE WILL THEN EXPAND WESTWARD
AND RESULT IN GENERALLY SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY JUST ABOVE
3000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY THU. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
NOCTURNALLY COOLS AND MOISTURE IN ENE FLOW FURTHER INCREASES/RESULTS
IN INCREASING RH AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT).

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>077-083>086.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 160602
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
201 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 920 PM TUESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: VIGOROUS COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND WILL EXIT OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...JUST AHEAD OF THE EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT. COASTAL COUNTES WILL SEE
ANOTHER HOUR OR PRECIP WITH RAPID WEST TO EAST CLEARING FOLLOWING
SUIT...REACHING EASTERN CWA BY 06Z-08Z.

9 PM EDT TEMPERATES ARE RANGING FROM LOWER 40 NW PIEDMONT TO AROUND
50 ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE ACCOUNTING FOR PREDICTED TRENDS AND
UPSTREAM TEMPS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 30-36 RANGE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC... AND HAVE KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE AS IS WITH
THE ADDITION OF HALIFAX COUNTY IN OUR NE. TEMPS IN THIS FREEZE
WARNING AREA SHOULD HOVER NEAR OR JUST UNDER FREEZING FOR 3-5 HOURS
OVERNIGHT... PARTICULARLY IN THE OUTLYING AND RURAL AREAS.

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: WITH ANOMALOUSLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NW AND N THROUGH THE DAY... EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH A DRY
AND HIGHLY STABLE COLUMN. THICKNESSES ARE STILL PROJECTED TO START
THE DAY OVER 70 M BELOW NORMAL... AND TAKING THE ANTICIPATED 925 MB
TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE DRY ADIABATICALLY YIELDS HIGHS ONLY AROUND
50 DEGREES. ACCOUNTING FOR AT LEAST SOME HEAT FLUX FROM THE
GROUND... WILL MAINTAIN HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 51-56 DEGREE
RANGE. AS THE WINDS DROP OFF SLOWLY WED NIGHT UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES... GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A DRY SURFACE AIR MASS WILL
AGAIN BRING A THREAT FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF CENTRAL NC... AND HAVE POSTED A FREEZE WATCH FOR WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING FOR AREAS ROUGHLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
ROANOKE RAPIDS TO RALEIGH TO LAURINBURG. A SURFACE WINDS TAKE ON A
MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT AND BEGIN TO DRAW IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
TOWARD THU MORNING... SOUTHEAST SECTIONS MAY SEE PATCHY STRATUS FORM
LATE. LOWS 39-35. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL MEAN FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES REBOUNDING 30-40M FROM WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. STILL COOL THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...

AT THE START OF FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NE GOMEX WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
DAYS END. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM AND LIFT TO THE NE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS BETWEEN 00-06Z SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THAT THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY BECAUSE...1) THE MOISTURE
ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND 2) THE NORTHERN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
MOISTURE-STARVED...WITH THE BULK OF ITS MOISTURE REMAINING WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THEN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SFC COLD
FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL
BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND PROVIDE FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER FOR THE REST OF WEEKEND.

UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...

MVFR CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH 09Z AT KRWI AND JUST EAST OF
KRDU/KFAY...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO AN OFFSHORE/EASTBOUND COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE INFLUX OF THE COLD/DRY AND DENSE
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON...STRONGEST AT EASTERN TERMINALS...
AND MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 14-17Z. ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN NE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL RESULT IN THE WESTWARD EXPANSION/ADVECTION OF MVFR CLOUDS FROM
COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS EVEN BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 3000 FT...JUST BEYOND THE
06Z TAF PERIOD...MAINLY AT KRWI.

OUTLOOK: THE AFOREMENTIONED MVFR MOISTURE WILL THEN EXPAND WESTWARD
AND RESULT IN GENERALLY SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY JUST ABOVE
3000 FT AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THE DAY THU. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT-EARLY FRI...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
NOCTURNALLY COOLS AND MOISTURE IN ENE FLOW FURTHER INCREASES/RESULTS
IN INCREASING RH AND CLOUD DEVELOPMENT).

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>077-083>086.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 160518
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1218 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UNUSUALLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 920 PM TUESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: VIGOROUS COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND WILL EXIT OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...JUST AHEAD OF THE EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT. COASTAL COUNTES WILL SEE
ANOTHER HOUR OR PRECIP WITH RAPID WEST TO EAST CLEARING FOLLOWING
SUIT...REACHING EASTERN CWA BY 06Z-08Z.

9 PM EDT TEMPERATES ARE RANGING FROM LOWER 40 NW PIEDMONT TO AROUND
50 ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE ACCOUNTING FOR PREDICTED TRENDS AND
UPSTREAM TEMPS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 30-36 RANGE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC... AND HAVE KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE AS IS WITH
THE ADDITION OF HALIFAX COUNTY IN OUR NE. TEMPS IN THIS FREEZE
WARNING AREA SHOULD HOVER NEAR OR JUST UNDER FREEZING FOR 3-5 HOURS
OVERNIGHT... PARTICULARLY IN THE OUTLYING AND RURAL AREAS.

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: WITH ANOMALOUSLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NW AND N THROUGH THE DAY... EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH A DRY
AND HIGHLY STABLE COLUMN. THICKNESSES ARE STILL PROJECTED TO START
THE DAY OVER 70 M BELOW NORMAL... AND TAKING THE ANTICIPATED 925 MB
TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE DRY ADIABATICALLY YIELDS HIGHS ONLY AROUND
50 DEGREES. ACCOUNTING FOR AT LEAST SOME HEAT FLUX FROM THE
GROUND... WILL MAINTAIN HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 51-56 DEGREE
RANGE. AS THE WINDS DROP OFF SLOWLY WED NIGHT UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES... GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A DRY SURFACE AIR MASS WILL
AGAIN BRING A THREAT FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF CENTRAL NC... AND HAVE POSTED A FREEZE WATCH FOR WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING FOR AREAS ROUGHLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
ROANOKE RAPIDS TO RALEIGH TO LAURINBURG. A SURFACE WINDS TAKE ON A
MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT AND BEGIN TO DRAW IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
TOWARD THU MORNING... SOUTHEAST SECTIONS MAY SEE PATCHY STRATUS FORM
LATE. LOWS 39-35. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL MEAN FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES REBOUNDING 30-40M FROM WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. STILL COOL THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...

AT THE START OF FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NE GOMEX WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
DAYS END. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM AND LIFT TO THE NE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS BETWEEN 00-06Z SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THAT THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY BECAUSE...1) THE MOISTURE
ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND 2) THE NORTHERN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
MOISTURE-STARVED...WITH THE BULK OF ITS MOISTURE REMAINING WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THEN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SFC COLD
FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL
BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND PROVIDE FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER FOR THE REST OF WEEKEND.

UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARDS AND OUT
OF THE CWA. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRATIFORM RAIN MAY CONTINUE AT
EASTERN TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTER THE RAIN MOVES
OUT CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY OVERNIGHT STARTING OUT NORTHWESTERLY AT 10 KTS GUSTING TO 20
KTS BUT GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT WITH 10 KTS SUSTAINED
PREVAILING THROUGH SUNRISE. FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECT 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED
GUSTING TO 20 KTS BY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER AROUND TO
NORTHEASTERLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.

LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR CIGS ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST BECOMES LOW
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD BRING SOME ADVERSE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>077-083>086.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 160121
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
920 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UNUSUALLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 920 PM TUESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: VIGOROUS COLD FRONT IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND WILL EXIT OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...JUST AHEAD OF THE EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT. COASTAL COUNTES WILL SEE
ANOTHER HOUR OR PRECIP WITH RAPID WEST TO EAST CLEARING FOLLOWING
SUIT...REACHING EASTERN CWA BY 06Z-08Z.

9 PM EDT TEMPERATES ARE RANGING FROM LOWER 40 NW PIEDMONT TO AROUND
50 ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE ACCOUNTING FOR PREDICTED TRENDS AND
UPSTREAM TEMPS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 30-36 RANGE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC... AND HAVE KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE AS IS WITH
THE ADDITION OF HALIFAX COUNTY IN OUR NE. TEMPS IN THIS FREEZE
WARNING AREA SHOULD HOVER NEAR OR JUST UNDER FREEZING FOR 3-5 HOURS
OVERNIGHT... PARTICULARLY IN THE OUTLYING AND RURAL AREAS.

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: WITH ANOMALOUSLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NW AND N THROUGH THE DAY... EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH A DRY
AND HIGHLY STABLE COLUMN. THICKNESSES ARE STILL PROJECTED TO START
THE DAY OVER 70 M BELOW NORMAL... AND TAKING THE ANTICIPATED 925 MB
TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE DRY ADIABATICALLY YIELDS HIGHS ONLY AROUND
50 DEGREES. ACCOUNTING FOR AT LEAST SOME HEAT FLUX FROM THE
GROUND... WILL MAINTAIN HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 51-56 DEGREE
RANGE. AS THE WINDS DROP OFF SLOWLY WED NIGHT UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES... GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A DRY SURFACE AIR MASS WILL
AGAIN BRING A THREAT FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF CENTRAL NC... AND HAVE POSTED A FREEZE WATCH FOR WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING FOR AREAS ROUGHLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
ROANOKE RAPIDS TO RALEIGH TO LAURINBURG. A SURFACE WINDS TAKE ON A
MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT AND BEGIN TO DRAW IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
TOWARD THU MORNING... SOUTHEAST SECTIONS MAY SEE PATCHY STRATUS FORM
LATE. LOWS 39-35. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL MEAN FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES REBOUNDING 30-40M FROM WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. STILL COOL THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...

AT THE START OF FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSI24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARDS AND OUT
OF THE CWA. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRATIFORM RAIN MAY CONTINUE AT
EASTERN TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTER THE RAIN MOVES
OUT CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY OVERNIGHT STARTING OUT NORTHWESTERLY AT 10 KTS GUSTING TO 20
KTS BUT GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT WITH 10 KTS SUSTAINED
PREVAILING THROUGH SUNRISE. FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECT 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED
GUSTING TO 20 KTS BY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER AROUND TO
NORTHEASTERLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.

LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR CIGS ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST BECOMES LOW
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD BRING SOME ADVERSE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.NG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NE GOMEX WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
DAYS END. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM AND LIFT TO THE NE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST.  MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS BETWEEN 00-06Z SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THAT THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY BECAUSE...1) THE MOISTURE
ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND 2) THE NORTHERN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
MOISTURE-STARVED...WITH THE BULK OF ITS MOISTURE REMAINING WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THEN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SFC COLD
FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL
BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND PROVIDE FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER FOR THE REST OF WEEKEND.

UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARDS AND OUT
OF THE CWA. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRATIFORM RAIN MAY CONTINUE AT
EASTERN TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTER THE RAIN MOVES
OUT CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY OVERNIGHT STARTING OUT NORTHWESTERLY AT 10 KTS GUSTING TO 20
KTS BUT GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT WITH 10 KTS SUSTAINED
PREVAILING THROUGH SUNRISE. FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECT 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED
GUSTING TO 20 KTS BY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER AROUND TO
NORTHEASTERLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.

LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR CIGS ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST BECOMES LOW
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD BRING SOME ADVERSE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>077-083>086.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 152355
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
755 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. UNUSUALLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: VIGOROUS COLD FRONT IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE WRN
PIEDMONT. AFTER THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE CLEARED THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING... WE`VE SEEN LITTLE MORE THAN PATCHY SHOWERS
IN THE WARM SECTOR. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS IS ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT... WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER OVER WRN SC. THESE ARE POISED TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/ERN NC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THE NAM IS FORECASTING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 500-750 J/KG ALONG/EAST OF
HIGHWAY 1 THIS AFTERNOON... WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2
(REASONABLE CONSIDERING IT`S CURRENTLY 250 M2/S2 OVER CENTRAL SC
ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS). SO WHILE THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
IS NOT HIGH... ANY ISOLATED CELL OR BOWING SEGMENT WILL BE CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AND BASED ON RAP
SOUNDINGS AT FAY SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL VEERING VIA A CURVED
HODOGRAPH... AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR. EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THIS CONVECTION... WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SURGE UP TO 15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH. ONCE THE AREA OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN CLEARS...
FAIRLY RAPID DRYING OVER THE COURSE OF A FEW HOURS IS EXPECTED...
WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR AROUND 03Z-05Z IN THE WRN CWA AND 06Z-08Z
IN THE ERN CWA... WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING BRISK OVERNIGHT
(AROUND 15 MPH WITH SPORADIC GUSTS OVER 20 MPH) AND BECOMING
NORTHERLY THEN NORTHEAST. TEMPS ARE PLUNGING 15+ DEGREES WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE... AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE ACCOUNTING FOR PREDICTED TRENDS AND
UPSTREAM TEMPS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 30-36 RANGE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC... AND HAVE KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE AS IS WITH
THE ADDITION OF HALIFAX COUNTY IN OUR NE. TEMPS IN THIS FREEZE
WARNING AREA SHOULD HOVER NEAR OR JUST UNDER FREEZING FOR 3-5 HOURS
OVERNIGHT... PARTICULARLY IN THE OUTLYING AND RURAL AREAS.

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: WITH ANOMALOUSLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NW AND N THROUGH THE DAY... EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH A DRY
AND HIGHLY STABLE COLUMN. THICKNESSES ARE STILL PROJECTED TO START
THE DAY OVER 70 M BELOW NORMAL... AND TAKING THE ANTICIPATED 925 MB
TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE DRY ADIABATICALLY YIELDS HIGHS ONLY AROUND
50 DEGREES. ACCOUNTING FOR AT LEAST SOME HEAT FLUX FROM THE
GROUND... WILL MAINTAIN HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 51-56 DEGREE
RANGE. AS THE WINDS DROP OFF SLOWLY WED NIGHT UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES... GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A DRY SURFACE AIR MASS WILL
AGAIN BRING A THREAT FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF CENTRAL NC... AND HAVE POSTED A FREEZE WATCH FOR WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING FOR AREAS ROUGHLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
ROANOKE RAPIDS TO RALEIGH TO LAURINBURG. A SURFACE WINDS TAKE ON A
MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT AND BEGIN TO DRAW IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
TOWARD THU MORNING... SOUTHEAST SECTIONS MAY SEE PATCHY STRATUS FORM
LATE. LOWS 39-35. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL MEAN FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES REBOUNDING 30-40M FROM WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. STILL COOL THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...

AT THE START OF FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSI24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARDS AND OUT
OF THE CWA. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRATIFORM RAIN MAY CONTINUE AT
EASTERN TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTER THE RAIN MOVES
OUT CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY OVERNIGHT STARTING OUT NORTHWESTERLY AT 10 KTS GUSTING TO 20
KTS BUT GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT WITH 10 KTS SUSTAINED
PREVAILING THROUGH SUNRISE. FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECT 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED
GUSTING TO 20 KTS BY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER AROUND TO
NORTHEASTERLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.

LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR CIGS ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST BECOMES LOW
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD BRING SOME ADVERSE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.NG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NE GOMEX WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
DAYS END. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM AND LIFT TO THE NE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST.  MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS BETWEEN 00-06Z SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THAT THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY BECAUSE...1) THE MOISTURE
ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND 2) THE NORTHERN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
MOISTURE-STARVED...WITH THE BULK OF ITS MOISTURE REMAINING WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THEN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SFC COLD
FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL
BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND PROVIDE FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER FOR THE REST OF WEEKEND.

UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 755 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARDS AND OUT
OF THE CWA. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRATIFORM RAIN MAY CONTINUE AT
EASTERN TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTER THE RAIN MOVES
OUT CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY OVERNIGHT STARTING OUT NORTHWESTERLY AT 10 KTS GUSTING TO 20
KTS BUT GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT WITH 10 KTS SUSTAINED
PREVAILING THROUGH SUNRISE. FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECT 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED
GUSTING TO 20 KTS BY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER AROUND TO
NORTHEASTERLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE.

LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR CIGS ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST BECOMES LOW
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD BRING SOME ADVERSE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>077-083>086.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...ELLIS
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 151922
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. UNUSUALLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: VIGOROUS COLD FRONT IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE WRN
PIEDMONT. AFTER THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE CLEARED THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING... WE`VE SEEN LITTLE MORE THAN PATCHY SHOWERS
IN THE WARM SECTOR. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS IS ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT... WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER OVER WRN SC. THESE ARE POISED TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/ERN NC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THE NAM IS FORECASTING MUCAPE PEAKING AT 500-750 J/KG ALONG/EAST OF
HIGHWAY 1 THIS AFTERNOON... WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2
(REASONABLE CONSIDERING IT`S CURRENTLY 250 M2/S2 OVER CENTRAL SC
ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS). SO WHILE THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
IS NOT HIGH... ANY ISOLATED CELL OR BOWING SEGMENT WILL BE CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AND BASED ON RAP
SOUNDINGS AT FAY SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL VEERING VIA A CURVED
HODOGRAPH... AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR. EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THIS CONVECTION... WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND SURGE UP TO 15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH. ONCE THE AREA OF POST-FRONTAL RAIN CLEARS...
FAIRLY RAPID DRYING OVER THE COURSE OF A FEW HOURS IS EXPECTED...
WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR AROUND 03Z-05Z IN THE WRN CWA AND 06Z-08Z
IN THE ERN CWA... WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING BRISK OVERNIGHT
(AROUND 15 MPH WITH SPORADIC GUSTS OVER 20 MPH) AND BECOMING
NORTHERLY THEN NORTHEAST. TEMPS ARE PLUNGING 15+ DEGREES WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE... AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE ACCOUNTING FOR PREDICTED TRENDS AND
UPSTREAM TEMPS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 30-36 RANGE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC... AND HAVE KEPT THE FREEZE WARNING IN PLACE AS IS WITH
THE ADDITION OF HALIFAX COUNTY IN OUR NE. TEMPS IN THIS FREEZE
WARNING AREA SHOULD HOVER NEAR OR JUST UNDER FREEZING FOR 3-5 HOURS
OVERNIGHT... PARTICULARLY IN THE OUTLYING AND RURAL AREAS.

FOR WED/WED NIGHT: WITH ANOMALOUSLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NW AND N THROUGH THE DAY... EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH A DRY
AND HIGHLY STABLE COLUMN. THICKNESSES ARE STILL PROJECTED TO START
THE DAY OVER 70 M BELOW NORMAL... AND TAKING THE ANTICIPATED 925 MB
TEMPS DOWN TO THE SURFACE DRY ADIABATICALLY YIELDS HIGHS ONLY AROUND
50 DEGREES. ACCOUNTING FOR AT LEAST SOME HEAT FLUX FROM THE
GROUND... WILL MAINTAIN HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 51-56 DEGREE
RANGE. AS THE WINDS DROP OFF SLOWLY WED NIGHT UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES... GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A DRY SURFACE AIR MASS WILL
AGAIN BRING A THREAT FOR NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF CENTRAL NC... AND HAVE POSTED A FREEZE WATCH FOR WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING FOR AREAS ROUGHLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
ROANOKE RAPIDS TO RALEIGH TO LAURINBURG. A SURFACE WINDS TAKE ON A
MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT AND BEGIN TO DRAW IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
TOWARD THU MORNING... SOUTHEAST SECTIONS MAY SEE PATCHY STRATUS FORM
LATE. LOWS 39-35. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL MEAN FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES REBOUNDING 30-40M FROM WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. STILL COOL THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...

AT THE START OF FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NE GOMEX WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
DAYS END. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM AND LIFT TO THE NE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST.  MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS BETWEEN 00-06Z SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THAT THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY BECAUSE...1) THE MOISTURE
ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND 2) THE NORTHERN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
MOISTURE-STARVED...WITH THE BULK OF ITS MOISTURE REMAINING WELL TO
OUR NORTH. THEN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SFC COLD
FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL
BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND PROVIDE FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER FOR THE REST OF WEEKEND.

UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS OR
SO... FOLLOWED BY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR... BUT BRISK GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC.
PATCHY SHOWERS HAVE PRECEDED THIS FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN
RECENT HOURS... BUT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT... A SOLID
BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL SWEEP EASTWARD FROM NOW
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. CURRENT TAFS REFLECT THIS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBYS AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS... AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT SUDDENLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE... AS
WINDS FROM THE SW SHIFT AROUND TO NW AND GUST UP TO 25-35 KTS... SO
AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE TAB ON THE FRONTAL POSITION
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BETWEEN 02Z (WEST) AND 06Z (EAST)... CIGS
ARE LIKELY TO RISE TO VFR WITH P6SM VSBYS AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. BRISK
WINDS FROM NW WILL PERSIST THE REST OF TONIGHT... SUSTAINED NEAR 12-
18 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS... THEN WILL SWING AROUND TO BE FROM THE
NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING... WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THU...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS WITH STRATUS AT FAY/RWI AS
SURFACE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO BE FROM THE SE AND BRING IN ATLANTIC
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS CHANCE IS GREATER LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN US FRI
THROUGH SAT... AND MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS... BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS WITH THIS IS HIGH. -GIH

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>077-083>086.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 151859
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. UNUSUALLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM TUESDAY...

HAVE JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTIVE LINE
NOW EXITING THE ERN CWA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT NOW
ALONG THE NC MOUNTAINS AND EXPECT A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS
AFTERNOON... PROPELLED BY THE DENSITY OF THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD
INCOMING AIR MASS AS WELL AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY. A FEW ROTATING ELEMENTS AND SHORT SEGMENTS WITH
ENHANCED WIND GUSTS WERE OBSERVED WITH THIS PRIMARY LINE OF
CONVECTION... AND AS THIS DEPARTS ALONG WITH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY... WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF LULL WITHIN THE REARWARD
SUBSIDENCE ZONE. BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOW OVER S/E GA AND SC
SHOULD SPREAD UP INTO THE S/E CWA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... AND
THIS EXTRAPOLATION IS SUPPORTED BY RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE. INSTABILITY IS
NOT PROJECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH THIS (AROUND 250 J/KG
POTENTIALL APPROACHING 500 J/KG) BUT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR/EAST OF WHAT THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS INDICATE WILL BE A PREFRONTAL WEAK SURFACE LOW... AND IN FACT
THE RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD OF CURVED HODOGRAPHS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY POSE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR AN ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT... IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN BOWING
SEGMENTS AND AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO... LARGELY EAST OF I-95 AS
THIS IS WHERE THE SREF SHOWS THE BEST COMBINATION OF (MODEST)
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE THREAT OF
ANY STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE OVER (TO OUR EAST) BY 00Z. IN ANY
CASE... MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF SHOWERS (IF
NOT STORMS) FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON EITHER WITH
THE ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH OR ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL... WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WITH DEW POINTS HOLD IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LIFT WILL BE AUGMENTED
BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE SRLY JET STREAK TO
OUR NNW. SO... AFTER A SHORT LULL WILL TREND POPS BACK UP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TOWARD THE GLAMP AND HRRR RAPID-
UPDATE GUIDANCE... TO INDICATE FALLING TEMPS IN THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO UPPER 70S
EAST. -GIH


MINIMAL ADJUSTMENT NEEDED FOR LOWS IN STRONG CAA TONIGHT...INTO THE
30 TO 37 DEGREE RANGE...COOLEST WEST. THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
CONSEQUENTLY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING. -MWS

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

WED AND WED NIGHT: RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT/DNVA AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DEEP LAYER DRYING (SUNSHINE)
WED...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION...BUT WITH A
STILL STRONGLY CAPPED AND RESIDUALLY DRY REGIME OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH WED NIGHT. BENEATH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSEQUENTLY BECOME UNSEASONABLY STRONG INTO THE
1040-1045 MB RANGE AS IT BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND.
COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900
MB...WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT
COOL BIAS WITH THIS TECHNIQUE LIKELY IN PART OWING TO A SUPER-
ADIABATIC NEAR SURFACE LAYER...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.

PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1300-1310 METER RANGE AT
12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT MIDDLE
20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY
STIRRING FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH TYPICALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED AREA LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF CALM. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE
CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO DISPLAY A
RELATIVELY LARGE RANGE...FROM 28-30 DEGREES IN RURAL WESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS) TO
AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD...TO
33-37 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. -MWS

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL MEAN FAIR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES REBOUNDING 30-40M FROM WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. STILL COOL THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...

AT THE START OF FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NE GOMEX WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
DAYS END. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM AND LIFT TO THE NE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST.  MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS BETWEEN 00-06Z SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THAT THESE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY BECAUSE...1) THE MOISTURE
ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND 2) THE NORTHERN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
MOISTURE-STARVED...WITH THE BULK OF ITS MOISTURE REMAINING WELL TO
OUR NORTH.

THEN IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SFC COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIRMASS WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND PROVIDE FAIR AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF
WEEKEND.

UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS OR
SO... FOLLOWED BY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR... BUT BRISK GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC.
PATCHY SHOWERS HAVE PRECEDED THIS FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN
RECENT HOURS... BUT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT... A SOLID
BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL SWEEP EASTWARD FROM NOW
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. CURRENT TAFS REFLECT THIS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBYS AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS... AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT SUDDENLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE... AS
WINDS FROM THE SW SHIFT AROUND TO NW AND GUST UP TO 25-35 KTS... SO
AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE TAB ON THE FRONTAL POSITION
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BETWEEN 02Z (WEST) AND 06Z (EAST)... CIGS
ARE LIKELY TO RISE TO VFR WITH P6SM VSBYS AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. BRISK
WINDS FROM NW WILL PERSIST THE REST OF TONIGHT... SUSTAINED NEAR 12-
18 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS... THEN WILL SWING AROUND TO BE FROM THE
NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING... WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THU...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS WITH STRATUS AT FAY/RWI AS
SURFACE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO BE FROM THE SE AND BRING IN ATLANTIC
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS CHANCE IS GREATER LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN US FRI
THROUGH SAT... AND MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS... BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS WITH THIS IS HIGH. -GIH

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS/KCP
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 151848
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. UNUSUALLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM TUESDAY...

HAVE JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTIVE LINE
NOW EXITING THE ERN CWA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT NOW
ALONG THE NC MOUNTAINS AND EXPECT A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS
AFTERNOON... PROPELLED BY THE DENSITY OF THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD
INCOMING AIR MASS AS WELL AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY. A FEW ROTATING ELEMENTS AND SHORT SEGMENTS WITH
ENHANCED WIND GUSTS WERE OBSERVED WITH THIS PRIMARY LINE OF
CONVECTION... AND AS THIS DEPARTS ALONG WITH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY... WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF LULL WITHIN THE REARWARD
SUBSIDENCE ZONE. BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOW OVER S/E GA AND SC
SHOULD SPREAD UP INTO THE S/E CWA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... AND
THIS EXTRAPOLATION IS SUPPORTED BY RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE. INSTABILITY IS
NOT PROJECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH THIS (AROUND 250 J/KG
POTENTIALL APPROACHING 500 J/KG) BUT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR/EAST OF WHAT THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS INDICATE WILL BE A PREFRONTAL WEAK SURFACE LOW... AND IN FACT
THE RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD OF CURVED HODOGRAPHS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY POSE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR AN ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT... IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN BOWING
SEGMENTS AND AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO... LARGELY EAST OF I-95 AS
THIS IS WHERE THE SREF SHOWS THE BEST COMBINATION OF (MODEST)
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE THREAT OF
ANY STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE OVER (TO OUR EAST) BY 00Z. IN ANY
CASE... MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF SHOWERS (IF
NOT STORMS) FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON EITHER WITH
THE ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH OR ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL... WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WITH DEW POINTS HOLD IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LIFT WILL BE AUGMENTED
BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE SRLY JET STREAK TO
OUR NNW. SO... AFTER A SHORT LULL WILL TREND POPS BACK UP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TOWARD THE GLAMP AND HRRR RAPID-
UPDATE GUIDANCE... TO INDICATE FALLING TEMPS IN THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO UPPER 70S
EAST. -GIH


MINIMAL ADJUSTMENT NEEDED FOR LOWS IN STRONG CAA TONIGHT...INTO THE
30 TO 37 DEGREE RANGE...COOLEST WEST. THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
CONSEQUENTLY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING. -MWS

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...

WED AND WED NIGHT: RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT/DNVA AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DEEP LAYER DRYING (SUNSHINE)
WED...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION...BUT WITH A
STILL STRONGLY CAPPED AND RESIDUALLY DRY REGIME OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH WED NIGHT. BENEATH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSEQUENTLY BECOME UNSEASONABLY STRONG INTO THE
1040-1045 MB RANGE AS IT BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND.
COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900
MB...WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT
COOL BIAS WITH THIS TECHNIQUE LIKELY IN PART OWING TO A SUPER-
ADIABATIC NEAR SURFACE LAYER...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.

PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1300-1310 METER RANGE AT
12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT MIDDLE
20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY
STIRRING FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH TYPICALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED AREA LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF CALM. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE
CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO DISPLAY A
RELATIVELY LARGE RANGE...FROM 28-30 DEGREES IN RURAL WESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS) TO
AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD...TO
33-37 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. -MWS

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE DURING THE EVE/OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND EAST...AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. WITH THE CONTINUED NE
FLOW AND CAA...STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...
GIVEN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BY A
GOOD 30-40 METERS...EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE BY 5-10 DEGREES...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. -KCP

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS THE ELONGATED LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...OTHERWISE THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SKIRTS NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THE LOW...BRINGING IT CLOSER TO THE AREA. DESPITE THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE DRY AIR
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50
DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS...EXPECT EASTER SUNDAY TO BE
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS OR
SO... FOLLOWED BY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR... BUT BRISK GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NC.
PATCHY SHOWERS HAVE PRECEDED THIS FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN
RECENT HOURS... BUT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT... A SOLID
BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL SWEEP EASTWARD FROM NOW
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. CURRENT TAFS REFLECT THIS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
VSBYS AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS... AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT SUDDENLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE... AS
WINDS FROM THE SW SHIFT AROUND TO NW AND GUST UP TO 25-35 KTS... SO
AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE TAB ON THE FRONTAL POSITION
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BETWEEN 02Z (WEST) AND 06Z (EAST)... CIGS
ARE LIKELY TO RISE TO VFR WITH P6SM VSBYS AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. BRISK
WINDS FROM NW WILL PERSIST THE REST OF TONIGHT... SUSTAINED NEAR 12-
18 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS... THEN WILL SWING AROUND TO BE FROM THE
NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING... WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THU...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS WITH STRATUS AT FAY/RWI AS
SURFACE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO BE FROM THE SE AND BRING IN ATLANTIC
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS CHANCE IS GREATER LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN US FRI
THROUGH SAT... AND MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS... BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS WITH THIS IS HIGH. -GIH

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS/KCP
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 151420
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1010 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. UNUSUALLY CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM TUESDAY...

HAVE JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTIVE LINE
NOW EXITING THE ERN CWA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT NOW
ALONG THE NC MOUNTAINS AND EXPECT A STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS
AFTERNOON... PROPELLED BY THE DENSITY OF THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD
INCOMING AIR MASS AS WELL AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY. A FEW ROTATING ELEMENTS AND SHORT SEGMENTS WITH
ENHANCED WIND GUSTS WERE OBSERVED WITH THIS PRIMARY LINE OF
CONVECTION... AND AS THIS DEPARTS ALONG WITH THE BETTER
INSTABILITY... WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF LULL WITHIN THE REARWARD
SUBSIDENCE ZONE. BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOW OVER S/E GA AND SC
SHOULD SPREAD UP INTO THE S/E CWA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... AND
THIS EXTRAPOLATION IS SUPPORTED BY RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE. INSTABILITY IS
NOT PROJECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH THIS (AROUND 250 J/KG
POTENTIALL APPROACHING 500 J/KG) BUT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR/EAST OF WHAT THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS INDICATE WILL BE A PREFRONTAL WEAK SURFACE LOW... AND IN FACT
THE RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD OF CURVED HODOGRAPHS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY POSE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR AN ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT... IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN BOWING
SEGMENTS AND AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO... LARGELY EAST OF I-95 AS
THIS IS WHERE THE SREF SHOWS THE BEST COMBINATION OF (MODEST)
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE THREAT OF
ANY STRONG STORMS SHOULD BE OVER (TO OUR EAST) BY 00Z. IN ANY
CASE... MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF SHOWERS (IF
NOT STORMS) FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON EITHER WITH
THE ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH OR ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL... WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WITH DEW POINTS HOLD IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LIFT WILL BE AUGMENTED
BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE SRLY JET STREAK TO
OUR NNW. SO... AFTER A SHORT LULL WILL TREND POPS BACK UP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS TOWARD THE GLAMP AND HRRR RAPID-
UPDATE GUIDANCE... TO INDICATE FALLING TEMPS IN THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S WEST TO UPPER 70S
EAST. -GIH


MINIMAL ADJUSTMENT NEEDED FOR LOWS IN STRONG CAA TONIGHT...INTO THE
30 TO 37 DEGREE RANGE...COOLEST WEST. THE FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
CONSEQUENTLY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING. -MWS

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...

WED AND WED NIGHT: RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT/DNVA AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DEEP LAYER DRYING (SUNSHINE)
WED...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION...BUT WITH A
STILL STRONGLY CAPPED AND RESIDUALLY DRY REGIME OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH WED NIGHT. BENEATH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSEQUENTLY BECOME UNSEASONABLY STRONG INTO THE
1040-1045 MB RANGE AS IT BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND.
COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900
MB...WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT
COOL BIAS WITH THIS TECHNIQUE LIKELY IN PART OWING TO A SUPER-
ADIABATIC NEAR SURFACE LAYER...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.

PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1300-1310 METER RANGE AT
12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT MIDDLE
20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY
STIRRING FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH TYPICALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED AREA LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF CALM. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE
CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO DISPLAY A
RELATIVELY LARGE RANGE...FROM 28-30 DEGREES IN RURAL WESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS) TO
AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD...TO
33-37 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. -MWS

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE DURING THE EVE/OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND EAST...AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. WITH THE CONTINUED NE
FLOW AND CAA...STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...
GIVEN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BY A
GOOD 30-40 METERS...EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE BY 5-10 DEGREES...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. -KCP

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS THE ELONGATED LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...OTHERWISE THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SKIRTS NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THE LOW...BRINGING IT CLOSER TO THE AREA. DESPITE THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE DRY AIR
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50
DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS...EXPECT EASTER SUNDAY TO BE
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...APPROACHING KRWI...AND MOVING
OVER THE TERMINAL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WITH THE BREAK IN THE
PRECIP THIS MORNING AT THE OTHER TERMINALS...CONDITIONS HAVE/SHOULD
TEMPORARILY IMPROVE(D) BACK TO VFR/MVFR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VISBYS. IN THE WAKE OF THESE AFT/EVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL NC. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH 12Z...
EXPECT THEM TO VEER TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY DIE OUT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CIGS WILL LIFT AND VISBYS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LAST 6-12 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. -KC

LOOKING AHEAD: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME MORNING STRATUS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. -KRD

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS/KCP
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...KCP
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 151141
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
441 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

UPDATED FOR FREEZE WARNING HEADLINE SECTION.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
STRETCHED AT 07Z FROM NW PA SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
TN VALLEY...TO CENTRAL AL...AND THE TRAILING PARENT POSITIVELY-
TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LARGE AREA OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HAD
DEVELOPED WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE FRONT EARLIER MON...AND THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALREADY LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE SC BORDER
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TRANSIENT MINI-SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...DRIVEN ALONG A STRENGTHENING
LLJ AXIS AND BY A COUPLE OF MCV/S OVER GA...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. THOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK/AROUND 250 J/KG UNTIL
DIURNAL HEATING AND CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-UPPER 60S TD/S RESULTS IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
BY MIDDAY...LOW AND DEEP SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED
MINI-SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN LOCALLY DEEPER CONVECTION.

THE MORE APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT - GENERALLY EAST OF US HWY 1 -
WILL EVOLVE DURING THE MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE WARMING AND
MOISTENING BL YIELDS 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...AND AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND OVERLYING LARGER SCALE FORCING FOR
VERTICAL MOTION ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
NC BETWEEN 18-22Z THIS AFTERNOON. 1) LINEAR FRONTAL FORCING...2)
FORECAST DEEP SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...AND 3) FORECAST HODOGRAPHS THAT STRAIGHTEN WITH TIME (AFTER
DISPLAYING A CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CHARACTER THIS MORNING)... SUGGEST
THE CONVECTIVE MODE WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR ONE SUPPORTIVE
OF LINE SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED TRANSIENT CIRCULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF THE
MESOLOW ABOUT 100 MILES SE OF MONTGOMERY AL HOLDS TOGETHER AND
TRACKS THROUGH THE NC PIEDMONT...AS THE 00Z NAM SUGGESTS...AROUND
18Z.

EVEN BEHIND THE PRE-FRONTAL AND FRONTAL CONVECTION...THE TRAILING
UPPER FORCING AND RESULT WESTWARD SLOPE OF THE SATURATED AXIS ACROSS
THE FRONTAL ZONE SUGGESTS SOME POST-FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN - SIMILAR TO
WHAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL TN VALLEY THIS MORNING - WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA
SUGGESTS FLOODING WILL NOT BE A WIDESPREAD THREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A WATCH...THOUGH A COUPLE OF FLS/S...OR FFW/S MAINLY FOR URBAN
AREAS...MAY ULTIMATELY BE NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY - STARTING OFF WARM IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE -
WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION...FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PREVIOUSLY FORECAST UPPER 60S WEST
TO AROUND 80 EAST LOOKS GOOD...WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZE WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 3O MPH...BECOMING A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY ONE WITH
SIMILARLY STRONG GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MINIMAL ADJUSTMENT NEEDED FOR LOWS IN STRONG CAA TONIGHT...INTO THE
30 TO 37 DEGREE RANGE...COOLEST WEST. THE FREEZE WATCH WILL
CONSEQUENTLY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...

WED AND WED NIGHT: RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT/DNVA AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DEEP LAYER DRYING (SUNSHINE)
WED...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION...BUT WITH A
STILL STRONGLY CAPPED AND RESIDUALLY DRY REGIME OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH WED NIGHT. BENEATH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSEQUENTLY BECOME UNSEASONABLY STRONG INTO THE
1040-1045 MB RANGE AS IT BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND.
COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900
MB...WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT
COOL BIAS WITH THIS TECHNIQUE LIKELY IN PART OWING TO A SUPER-
ADIABATIC NEAR SURFACE LAYER...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.

PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1300-1310 METER RANGE AT
12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT MIDDLE
20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY
STIRRING FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH TYPICALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED AREA LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF CALM. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE
CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO DISPLAY A
RELATIVELY LARGE RANGE...FROM 28-30 DEGREES IN RURAL WESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS) TO
AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD...TO
33-37 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. -MWS

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE DURING THE EVE/OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND EAST...AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. WITH THE CONTINUED NE
FLOW AND CAA...STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...
GIVEN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BY A
GOOD 30-40 METERS...EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE BY 5-10 DEGREES...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. -KCP

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS THE ELONGATED LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...OTHERWISE THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SKIRTS NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THE LOW...BRINGING IT CLOSER TO THE AREA. DESPITE THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE DRY AIR
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50
DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS...EXPECT EASTER SUNDAY TO BE
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 740 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...APPROACHING KRWI...AND MOVING
OVER THE TERMINAL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WITH THE BREAK IN THE
PRECIP THIS MORNING AT THE OTHER TERMINALS...CONDITIONS HAVE/SHOULD
TEMPORARILY IMPROVE(D) BACK TO VFR/MVFR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS AND VISBYS. IN THE WAKE OF THESE AFT/EVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL NC. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH 12Z...
EXPECT THEM TO VEER TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY DIE OUT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CIGS WILL LIFT AND VISBYS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LAST 6-12 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. -KC

LOOKING AHEAD: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME MORNING STRATUS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. -KRD

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS/KCP
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...KCP
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 150804
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
404 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

UPDATED FOR FREEZE WARNING HEADLINE SECTION.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
STRETCHED AT 07Z FROM NW PA SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
TN VALLEY...TO CENTRAL AL...AND THE TRAILING PARENT POSITIVELY-
TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LARGE AREA OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HAD
DEVELOPED WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE FRONT EARLIER MON...AND THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALREADY LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE SC BORDER
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TRANSIENT MINI-SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...DRIVEN ALONG A STRENGTHENING
LLJ AXIS AND BY A COUPLE OF MCV/S OVER GA...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. THOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK/AROUND 250 J/KG UNTIL
DIURNAL HEATING AND CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-UPPER 60S TD/S RESULTS IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
BY MIDDAY...LOW AND DEEP SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED
MINI-SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN LOCALLY DEEPER CONVECTION.

THE MORE APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT - GENERALLY EAST OF US HWY 1 -
WILL EVOLVE DURING THE MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE WARMING AND
MOISTENING BL YIELDS 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...AND AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND OVERLYING LARGER SCALE FORCING FOR
VERTICAL MOTION ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
NC BETWEEN 18-22Z THIS AFTERNOON. 1) LINEAR FRONTAL FORCING...2)
FORECAST DEEP SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...AND 3) FORECAST HODOGRAPHS THAT STRAIGHTEN WITH TIME (AFTER
DISPLAYING A CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CHARACTER THIS MORNING)... SUGGEST
THE CONVECTIVE MODE WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR ONE SUPPORTIVE
OF LINE SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED TRANSIENT CIRCULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF THE
MESOLOW ABOUT 100 MILES SE OF MONTGOMERY AL HOLDS TOGETHER AND
TRACKS THROUGH THE NC PIEDMONT...AS THE 00Z NAM SUGGESTS...AROUND
18Z.

EVEN BEHIND THE PRE-FRONTAL AND FRONTAL CONVECTION...THE TRAILING
UPPER FORCING AND RESULT WESTWARD SLOPE OF THE SATURATED AXIS ACROSS
THE FRONTAL ZONE SUGGESTS SOME POST-FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN - SIMILAR TO
WHAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL TN VALLEY THIS MORNING - WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA
SUGGESTS FLOODING WILL NOT BE A WIDESPREAD THREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A WATCH...THOUGH A COUPLE OF FLS/S...OR FFW/S MAINLY FOR URBAN
AREAS...MAY ULTIMATELY BE NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY - STARTING OFF WARM IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE -
WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION...FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PREVIOUSLY FORECAST UPPER 60S WEST
TO AROUND 80 EAST LOOKS GOOD...WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZE WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 3O MPH...BECOMING A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY ONE WITH
SIMILARLY STRONG GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MINIMAL ADJUSTMENT NEEDED FOR LOWS IN STRONG CAA TONIGHT...INTO THE
30 TO 37 DEGREE RANGE...COOLEST WEST. THE FREEZE WATCH WILL
CONSEQUENTLY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...

WED AND WED NIGHT: RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT/DNVA AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DEEP LAYER DRYING (SUNSHINE)
WED...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION...BUT WITH A
STILL STRONGLY CAPPED AND RESIDUALLY DRY REGIME OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH WED NIGHT. BENEATH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSEQUENTLY BECOME UNSEASONABLY STRONG INTO THE
1040-1045 MB RANGE AS IT BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND.
COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900
MB...WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT
COOL BIAS WITH THIS TECHNIQUE LIKELY IN PART OWING TO A SUPER-
ADIABATIC NEAR SURFACE LAYER...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.

PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1300-1310 METER RANGE AT
12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT MIDDLE
20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY
STIRRING FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH TYPICALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED AREA LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF CALM. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE
CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO DISPLAY A
RELATIVELY LARGE RANGE...FROM 28-30 DEGREES IN RURAL WESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS) TO
AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD...TO
33-37 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. -MWS

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE DURING THE EVE/OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND EAST...AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. WITH THE CONTINUED NE
FLOW AND CAA...STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...
GIVEN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BY A
GOOD 30-40 METERS...EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE BY 5-10 DEGREES...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. -KCP

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS THE ELONGATED LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...OTHERWISE THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SKIRTS NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THE LOW...BRINGING IT CLOSER TO THE AREA. DESPITE THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE DRY AIR
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50
DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS...EXPECT EASTER SUNDAY TO BE
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY
DECREASE FURTHER INTO IFR/LIFR BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ALREADY
IMPACTING KINT AND KGSO...AND LIKELY MOVING OVER KFAY AND KRDU OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS (AND KRWI THEREAFTER). THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE
THE CIGS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY WITH THESE HEAVY SHOWERS...VISBYS WILL
LIKELY DECREASE. AS ALREADY SEEN AT KINT AND KGSO...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY (20-25 KTS) AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS. IF
THERE IS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR...BUT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...EXPECT THEM TO VEER TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. CIGS WILL LIFT AND VISBYS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. -KC

LOOKING AHEAD: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME MORNING STRATUS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. -KRD

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ007>010-
021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS/KCP
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...KCP
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 150733
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
332 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...

SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
STRETCHED AT 07Z FROM NW PA SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
TN VALLEY...TO CENTRAL AL...AND THE TRAILING PARENT POSITIVELY-
TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LARGE AREA OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HAD
DEVELOPED WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE FRONT EARLIER MON...AND THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALREADY LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE SC BORDER
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TRANSIENT MINI-SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...DRIVEN ALONG A STRENGTHENING
LLJ AXIS AND BY A COUPLE OF MCV/S OVER GA...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. THOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK/AROUND 250 J/KG UNTIL
DIURNAL HEATING AND CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-UPPER 60S TD/S RESULTS IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
BY MIDDAY...LOW AND DEEP SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED
MINI-SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN LOCALLY DEEPER CONVECTION.

THE MORE APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT - GENERALLY EAST OF US HWY 1 -
WILL EVOLVE DURING THE MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE WARMING AND
MOISTENING BL YIELDS 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...AND AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND OVERLYING LARGER SCALE FORCING FOR
VERTICAL MOTION ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL
NC BETWEEN 18-22Z THIS AFTERNOON. 1) LINEAR FRONTAL FORCING...2)
FORECAST DEEP SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...AND 3) FORECAST HODOGRAPHS THAT STRAIGHTEN WITH TIME (AFTER
DISPLAYING A CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CHARACTER THIS MORNING)... SUGGEST
THE CONVECTIVE MODE WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR ONE SUPPORTIVE
OF LINE SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED TRANSIENT CIRCULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF THE
MESOLOW ABOUT 100 MILES SE OF MONTGOMERY AL HOLDS TOGETHER AND
TRACKS THROUGH THE NC PIEDMONT...AS THE 00Z NAM SUGGESTS...AROUND
18Z.

EVEN BEHIND THE PRE-FRONTAL AND FRONTAL CONVECTION...THE TRAILING
UPPER FORCING AND RESULT WESTWARD SLOPE OF THE SATURATED AXIS ACROSS
THE FRONTAL ZONE SUGGESTS SOME POST-FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN - SIMILAR TO
WHAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL TN VALLEY THIS MORNING - WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA
SUGGESTS FLOODING WILL NOT BE A WIDESPREAD THREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A WATCH...THOUGH A COUPLE OF FLS/S...OR FFW/S MAINLY FOR URBAN
AREAS...MAY ULTIMATELY BE NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY - STARTING OFF WARM IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE -
WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION...FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PREVIOUSLY FORECAST UPPER 60S WEST
TO AROUND 80 EAST LOOKS GOOD...WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZE WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 3O MPH...BECOMING A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY ONE WITH
SIMILARLY STRONG GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MINIMAL ADJUSTMENT NEEDED FOR LOWS IN STRONG CAA TONIGHT...INTO THE
30 TO 37 DEGREE RANGE...COOLEST WEST. THE FREEZE WATCH WILL
CONSEQUENTLY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...

WED AND WED NIGHT: RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT/DNVA AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DEEP LAYER DRYING (SUNSHINE)
WED...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION...BUT WITH A
STILL STRONGLY CAPPED AND RESIDUALLY DRY REGIME OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH WED NIGHT. BENEATH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSEQUENTLY BECOME UNSEASONABLY STRONG INTO THE
1040-1045 MB RANGE AS IT BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND.
COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900
MB...WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT
COOL BIAS WITH THIS TECHNIQUE LIKELY IN PART OWING TO A SUPER-
ADIABATIC NEAR SURFACE LAYER...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.

PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1300-1310 METER RANGE AT
12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT MIDDLE
20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY
STIRRING FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH TYPICALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED AREA LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF CALM. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE
CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO DISPLAY A
RELATIVELY LARGE RANGE...FROM 28-30 DEGREES IN RURAL WESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS) TO
AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD...TO
33-37 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. -MWS

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE DURING THE EVE/OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND EAST...AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. WITH THE CONTINUED NE
FLOW AND CAA...STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...
GIVEN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BY A
GOOD 30-40 METERS...EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE BY 5-10 DEGREES...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. -KCP

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS THE ELONGATED LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...OTHERWISE THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SKIRTS NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THE LOW...BRINGING IT CLOSER TO THE AREA. DESPITE THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE DRY AIR
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50
DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS...EXPECT EASTER SUNDAY TO BE
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY
DECREASE FURTHER INTO IFR/LIFR BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ALREADY
IMPACTING KINT AND KGSO...AND LIKELY MOVING OVER KFAY AND KRDU OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS (AND KRWI THEREAFTER). THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE
THE CIGS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY WITH THESE HEAVY SHOWERS...VISBYS WILL
LIKELY DECREASE. AS ALREADY SEEN AT KINT AND KGSO...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY (20-25 KTS) AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS. IF
THERE IS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR...BUT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...EXPECT THEM TO VEER TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. CIGS WILL LIFT AND VISBYS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. -KC

LOOKING AHEAD: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME MORNING STRATUS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. -KRD

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS/KCP
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...KCP
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 150703
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
303 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM MONDAY...

WARM MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING WITH
DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT... CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE AROUND NEW ORLEANS. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT... APPROACHING THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE WEAK PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT MOVED ACROSS TN/GA/SC AND WESTERN NC EARLIER TODAY
WEAKENED FURTHER THIS EVENING AND HAS LEFT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
NOW FORMING ON THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
IN GENERAL... WITH A NOSE OF MLCAPE (SMALL AMOUNT 100-250 J/KG)
EXTENDING UP TOWARDS THE DAVIDSON/ROWAN COUNTY LINE. THIS COUPLE
WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 40-50 KTS) AND
A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE (0-1KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2) HAS
YIELDED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITH THESE VERY SHALLOW SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM TIME TO TIME. AT THIS TIME DO NOT THINK ANY WEAK ROTATION WILL
RESULT IN ANY ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES AS THE UPDRAFTS DO NO APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH. THAT SAID... WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR
FOR ANY QUICK SPIKE IN INTENSITY WITH THESE SHOWERS/STORMS SINCE
THEY ARE INVOF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER.

GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED DEEP SHEAR AND FAVORABLE ATLANTIC LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW WE WILL NEED TO WATCH ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT... ESPECIALLY WITH THE LATEST RAP
SHOWING AS MUCH AS 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. LATEST HRRR AND RAP
SHOW AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THUS... WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH POPS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN MENTION OF SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM GIVEN THE
INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. THUS... EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

TUE-TUE NIGHT: WEAKENING LIFT BUT WITH INCREASING 0-3KM SHEAR MOVES
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY TUESDAY...THEN THERE IS
FORECAST A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND MID-
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN 850MB THETA-E VALUES AND
INSTABILITY. AS THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES...850MB WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 50 TO 55KT AS A 120KT 300MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...COINCIDENT WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90KT 500MB
JET. WHILE 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY FORECAST AROUND
6C/KM...AND THOSE MAINLY EAST OF U.S. 1... MUCAPE THAT INCREASES
OVERNIGHT TO NEARLY 1000J/KG ON THE NAM OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH VALUES
FROM 1000-1500J/KG DURING TUESDAY. 0-3KM SHEAR IS ON THE ORDER OF 40-
50KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING FURTHER TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR LATE. MODEST LAPSE RATES IN A BROADLY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD
HELP TO LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY... BUT SYSTEM DYNAMICS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD COMPENSATE FOR THIS AND MAKE FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY. IF A LOCATION SEEMED
TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...IT WOULD SEEM TO
BE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 WHERE THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WILL BE BETTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS LIFTED INDICES THERE SHOULD BE
-2C TO -4C...WITH BETTER HEATING EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
IS ANTICIPATED TO BE WIND...BUT WITH 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES FROM 100-
300 M2/S2...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS WERE
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE ANTICIPATING A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 80
SOUTHEAST.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. ONCE THE STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD END...THEN IMPACTS TURN TOWARD THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
FORECASTING LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...AND WHILE WINDS IN MANY LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY UP THROUGH A LARGE PART OF THE NIGHT IN A TIGHT GRADIENT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...LATE AT NIGHT THERE
SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND REDUCTION IN COMBINATION WITH SIMPLE
ADVECTION TO RESULT IN SEVERAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING. WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
KEEPING OUT THE IMMEDIATE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FOR NOW DUE TO
GREATER WIND AND MIXING EXPECTED THERE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 29 TO 32
MOSTLY FROM U.S. 1 WEST...33 TO 37 IN THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...

WED AND WED NIGHT: RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT/DNVA AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DEEP LAYER DRYING (SUNSHINE)
WED...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION...BUT WITH A
STILL STRONGLY CAPPED AND RESIDUALLY DRY REGIME OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH WED NIGHT. BENEATH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSEQUENTLY BECOME UNSEASONABLY STRONG INTO THE
1040-1045 MB RANGE AS IT BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND.
COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900
MB...WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT
COOL BIAS WITH THIS TECHNIQUE LIKELY IN PART OWING TO A SUPER-
ADIABATIC NEAR SURFACE LAYER...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.

PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1300-1310 METER RANGE AT
12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT MIDDLE
20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY
STIRRING FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH TYPICALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED AREA LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF CALM. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE
CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO DISPLAY A
RELATIVELY LARGE RANGE...FROM 28-30 DEGREES IN RURAL WESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS) TO
AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD...TO
33-37 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. -MWS

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE DURING THE EVE/OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND EAST...AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. WITH THE CONTINUED NE
FLOW AND CAA...STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...
GIVEN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BY A
GOOD 30-40 METERS...EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE BY 5-10 DEGREES...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. -KCP

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING AS THE ELONGATED LOW OFF THE COAST MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...OTHERWISE THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SKIRTS NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THE LOW...BRINGING IT CLOSER TO THE AREA. DESPITE THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE DRY AIR
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50
DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS...EXPECT EASTER SUNDAY TO BE
DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY
DECREASE FURTHER INTO IFR/LIFR BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ALREADY
IMPACTING KINT AND KGSO...AND LIKELY MOVING OVER KFAY AND KRDU OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS (AND KRWI THEREAFTER). THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE
THE CIGS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY WITH THESE HEAVY SHOWERS...VISBYS WILL
LIKELY DECREASE. AS ALREADY SEEN AT KINT AND KGSO...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY (20-25 KTS) AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS. IF
THERE IS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR...BUT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...EXPECT THEM TO VEER TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. CIGS WILL LIFT AND VISBYS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. -KC

LOOKING AHEAD: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME MORNING STRATUS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. -KRD

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD/DJF
SHORT TERM...MWS/KCP
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...KCP/KRD
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 150654
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
254 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM MONDAY...

WARM MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING WITH
DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT... CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE AROUND NEW ORLEANS. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT... APPROACHING THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE WEAK PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT MOVED ACROSS TN/GA/SC AND WESTERN NC EARLIER TODAY
WEAKENED FURTHER THIS EVENING AND HAS LEFT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
NOW FORMING ON THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
IN GENERAL... WITH A NOSE OF MLCAPE (SMALL AMOUNT 100-250 J/KG)
EXTENDING UP TOWARDS THE DAVIDSON/ROWAN COUNTY LINE. THIS COUPLE
WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 40-50 KTS) AND
A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE (0-1KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2) HAS
YIELDED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITH THESE VERY SHALLOW SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM TIME TO TIME. AT THIS TIME DO NOT THINK ANY WEAK ROTATION WILL
RESULT IN ANY ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES AS THE UPDRAFTS DO NO APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH. THAT SAID... WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR
FOR ANY QUICK SPIKE IN INTENSITY WITH THESE SHOWERS/STORMS SINCE
THEY ARE INVOF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER.

GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED DEEP SHEAR AND FAVORABLE ATLANTIC LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW WE WILL NEED TO WATCH ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT... ESPECIALLY WITH THE LATEST RAP
SHOWING AS MUCH AS 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. LATEST HRRR AND RAP
SHOW AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THUS... WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH POPS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN MENTION OF SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM GIVEN THE
INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. THUS... EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

TUE-TUE NIGHT: WEAKENING LIFT BUT WITH INCREASING 0-3KM SHEAR MOVES
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY TUESDAY...THEN THERE IS
FORECAST A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND MID-
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN 850MB THETA-E VALUES AND
INSTABILITY. AS THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES...850MB WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 50 TO 55KT AS A 120KT 300MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...COINCIDENT WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90KT 500MB
JET. WHILE 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY FORECAST AROUND
6C/KM...AND THOSE MAINLY EAST OF U.S. 1... MUCAPE THAT INCREASES
OVERNIGHT TO NEARLY 1000J/KG ON THE NAM OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH VALUES
FROM 1000-1500J/KG DURING TUESDAY. 0-3KM SHEAR IS ON THE ORDER OF 40-
50KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING FURTHER TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR LATE. MODEST LAPSE RATES IN A BROADLY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD
HELP TO LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY... BUT SYSTEM DYNAMICS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD COMPENSATE FOR THIS AND MAKE FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY. IF A LOCATION SEEMED
TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...IT WOULD SEEM TO
BE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 WHERE THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
WILL BE BETTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS LIFTED INDICES THERE SHOULD BE
-2C TO -4C...WITH BETTER HEATING EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
IS ANTICIPATED TO BE WIND...BUT WITH 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES FROM 100-
300 M2/S2...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS WERE
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE ANTICIPATING A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 80
SOUTHEAST.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. ONCE THE STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD END...THEN IMPACTS TURN TOWARD THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
FORECASTING LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...AND WHILE WINDS IN MANY LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY UP THROUGH A LARGE PART OF THE NIGHT IN A TIGHT GRADIENT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...LATE AT NIGHT THERE
SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND REDUCTION IN COMBINATION WITH SIMPLE
ADVECTION TO RESULT IN SEVERAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING. WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
KEEPING OUT THE IMMEDIATE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FOR NOW DUE TO
GREATER WIND AND MIXING EXPECTED THERE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 29 TO 32
MOSTLY FROM U.S. 1 WEST...33 TO 37 IN THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM TUESDAY...

WED AND WED NIGHT: RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT/DNVA AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DEEP LAYER DRYING (SUNSHINE)
WED...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION...BUT WITH A
STILL STRONGLY CAPPED AND RESIDUALLY DRY REGIME OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH WED NIGHT. BENEATH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSEQUENTLY BECOME UNSEASONABLY STRONG INTO THE
1040-1045 MB RANGE AS IT BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND.
COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING THROUGH 900
MB...WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR A USUAL SLIGHT
COOL BIAS WITH THIS TECHNIQUE LIKELY IN PART OWING TO A SUPER-
ADIABATIC NEAR SURFACE LAYER...SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
50S.

PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1300-1310 METER RANGE AT
12Z THU...WITH OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WOULD SUPPORT MIDDLE
20S. HOWEVER...A PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY
STIRRING FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH TYPICALLY
COOLER/SHELTERED AREA LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF CALM. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE
CAPPING INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SCT TO BKN LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN LATE. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURES ARE APT TO DISPLAY A
RELATIVELY LARGE RANGE...FROM 28-30 DEGREES IN RURAL WESTERN
PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AXIS) TO
AROUND FREEZING IN URBAN AREAS FROM RDU WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD...TO
33-37 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS. -MWS

THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: THIS PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE DURING THE EVE/OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND EAST...AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. WITH THE CONTINUED NE
FLOW AND CAA...STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...
GIVEN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASING FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT BY A
GOOD 30-40 METERS...EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE BY 5-10 DEGREES...HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. -KCP

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

FOR FRI THROUGH MON: LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NOAM THU IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT HEADS
EASTWARD INTO ERN NOAM FRI/SAT. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DRAW ENERGY FROM THE NRN GULF TOWARD THE NE... INDUCING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NE GULF OR FL... WHICH WOULD THEN
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI
NIGHT/SAT. THE GFS IS FAIRLY DRY HERE... HOLDING ITS SRN STREAM
PRECIP TO OUR SE AND ANY NRN STREAM PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. THE ECMWF
IS STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE... DEEPENING IT OVER SRN GA AND
FL... BUT IT TOO HOLDS MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS WAVE TO OUR SE.
WILL RETAIN THE BASIC STRUCTURE OF THE PRECIP CHANCES WE CURRENTLY
HAVE IN THERE... BUT REDUCE THEM AND CONFINE THE BETTER POPS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. AFTER BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN TROUGHS
SHIFT EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT... MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERSPREADS THE GULF/MIDSOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS SAT NIGHT AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE EASTER SUNDAY
WITH MODERATING TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MONDAY`S FORECAST AS THE GFS DEEPENS A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES... LEADING TO SURFACE LOW FORMATION ALONG A ROUGHLY E-W
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING IN... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER/SLOWER AND KEEPS NC DRY MON. WILL GO WITH THE
WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY DRY FOR NOW... BUT STAY TUNED.
EXPECT TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY
DECREASE FURTHER INTO IFR/LIFR BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ALREADY
IMPACTING KINT AND KGSO...AND LIKELY MOVING OVER KFAY AND KRDU OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS (AND KRWI THEREAFTER). THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE
THE CIGS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY WITH THESE HEAVY SHOWERS...VISBYS WILL
LIKELY DECREASE. AS ALREADY SEEN AT KINT AND KGSO...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY (20-25 KTS) AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS. IF
THERE IS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR...BUT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...EXPECT THEM TO VEER TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. CIGS WILL LIFT AND VISBYS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. -KC

LOOKING AHEAD: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME MORNING STRATUS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. -KRD

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD/DJF
SHORT TERM...MWS/KCP
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KC/KRD
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 150600
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
200 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT...THEN PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM MONDAY...

WARM MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING WITH
DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT... CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE AROUND NEW ORLEANS. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT... APPROACHING THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE WEAK PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT MOVED ACROSS TN/GA/SC AND WESTERN NC EARLIER TODAY
WEAKENED FURTHER THIS EVENING AND HAS LEFT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
NOW FORMING ON THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
IN GENERAL... WITH A NOSE OF MLCAPE (SMALL AMOUNT 100-250 J/KG)
EXTENDING UP TOWARDS THE DAVIDSON/ROWAN COUNTY LINE. THIS COUPLE
WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 40-50 KTS) AND
A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE (0-1KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2) HAS
YIELDED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITH THESE VERY SHALLOW SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM TIME TO TIME. AT THIS TIME DO NOT THINK ANY WEAK ROTATION WILL
RESULT IN ANY ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES AS THE UPDRAFTS DO NO APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH. THAT SAID... WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR
FOR ANY QUICK SPIKE IN INTENSITY WITH THESE SHOWERS/STORMS SINCE
THEY ARE INVOF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER.

GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED DEEP SHEAR AND FAVORABLE ATLANTIC LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW WE WILL NEED TO WATCH ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT... ESPECIALLY WITH THE LATEST RAP
SHOWING AS MUCH AS 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. LATEST HRRR AND RAP
SHOW AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THUS... WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH POPS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN MENTION OF SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM GIVEN THE
INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. THUS... EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

WEAKENING LIFT BUT WITH INCREASING 0-3KM SHEAR MOVES EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY TUESDAY...THEN THERE IS FORECAST A
BRIEF RESPITE IN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND MID-MORNING WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN 850MB THETA-E VALUES AND INSTABILITY. AS THE
AFTERNOON APPROACHES...850MB WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 50 TO 55KT AS
A 120KT 300MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...COINCIDENT WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90KT 500MB JET. WHILE 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES
ARE ONLY FORECAST AROUND 6C/KM...AND THOSE MAINLY EAST OF U.S. 1...
MUCAPE THAT INCREASES OVERNIGHT TO NEARLY 1000J/KG ON THE NAM OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WITH VALUES FROM 1000-1500J/KG DURING TUESDAY. 0-3KM SHEAR
IS ON THE ORDER OF 40-50KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING FURTHER
TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR LATE. MODEST LAPSE RATES IN A
BROADLY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...
BUT SYSTEM DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD COMPENSATE
FOR THIS AND MAKE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
TUESDAY. IF A LOCATION SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS...IT WOULD SEEM TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 WHERE
THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE BETTER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS LIFTED INDICES THERE SHOULD BE -2C TO -4C...WITH
BETTER HEATING EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO
BE WIND...BUT WITH 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES FROM 100-300 M2/S2...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS WERE LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE ANTICIPATING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE
MORNING...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 80 SOUTHEAST.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. ONCE THE STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD END...THEN IMPACTS TURN TOWARD THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
FORECASTING LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...AND WHILE WINDS IN MANY LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY UP THROUGH A LARGE PART OF THE NIGHT IN A TIGHT GRADIENT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...LATE AT NIGHT THERE
SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND REDUCTION IN COMBINATION WITH SIMPLE
ADVECTION TO RESULT IN SEVERAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING. WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
KEEPING OUT THE IMMEDIATE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FOR NOW DUE TO
GREATER WIND AND MIXING EXPECTED THERE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 29 TO 32
MOSTLY FROM U.S. 1 WEST...33 TO 37 IN THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

FOR WED THROUGH THU NIGHT: THE INTENSE BUT DAMPENING TROUGH WILL
TRACK QUICKLY TO OUR NORTHEAST IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WED...AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY FLAT SW FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST/MIDSOUTH/
CAROLINAS THROUGH WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND STABLE AS
THE CENTER OF THE COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE NOSING DOWN
THROUGH NC. EXPECT BREEZY AND COOL WINDS FROM THE NE WED...
DIMINISHING LATE WED INTO THU AS THE MSLP GRADIENT RELAXES. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE TUE NIGHT TO OVER 70 M
BELOW NORMAL...WITH ONLY MODEST RECOVERY DURING THE DAY...
TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S. (AND THIS MAY EVEN BE
OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING THE PROJECTED 925 MB TEMPS BROUGHT DOWN DRY
ADIABATICALLY YIELD HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50 OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC.)
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH DEEP
DRY/STABLE AIR AS THE SLOWLY RETREATING AND MODIFYING SURFACE RIDGE
NOSES INTO NC FROM THE NORTH... ALTHOUGH WE COULD START TO SEE
PATCHY STRATUS LATE THU NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE-DIRECTED FLOW.
LIGHT WINDS AND A CONTINUED ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR MASS WILL FOSTER
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS... AND ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE IS
POSSIBLE WED NIGHT... PARTICULARLY IN THE RURAL AREAS OF THE
PIEDMONT. NOT QUITE AS COOL THU WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 59-64.
LOWS THU NIGHT 37-42 WITH RISING DEW POINTS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON: LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NOAM THU IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT HEADS
EASTWARD INTO ERN NOAM FRI/SAT. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DRAW ENERGY FROM THE NRN GULF TOWARD THE NE... INDUCING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NE GULF OR FL... WHICH WOULD THEN
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI
NIGHT/SAT. THE GFS IS FAIRLY DRY HERE... HOLDING ITS SRN STREAM
PRECIP TO OUR SE AND ANY NRN STREAM PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. THE ECMWF
IS STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE... DEEPENING IT OVER SRN GA AND
FL... BUT IT TOO HOLDS MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS WAVE TO OUR SE.
WILL RETAIN THE BASIC STRUCTURE OF THE PRECIP CHANCES WE CURRENTLY
HAVE IN THERE... BUT REDUCE THEM AND CONFINE THE BETTER POPS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. AFTER BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN TROUGHS
SHIFT EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT... MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERSPREADS THE GULF/MIDSOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS SAT NIGHT AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE EASTER SUNDAY
WITH MODERATING TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MONDAY`S FORECAST AS THE GFS DEEPENS A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES... LEADING TO SURFACE LOW FORMATION ALONG A ROUGHLY E-W
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING IN... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER/SLOWER AND KEEPS NC DRY MON. WILL GO WITH THE
WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY DRY FOR NOW... BUT STAY TUNED.
EXPECT TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY
DECREASE FURTHER INTO IFR/LIFR BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ALREADY
IMPACTING KINT AND KGSO...AND LIKELY MOVING OVER KFAY AND KRDU OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS (AND KRWI THEREAFTER). THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE
THE CIGS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY WITH THESE HEAVY SHOWERS...VISBYS WILL
LIKELY DECREASE. AS ALREADY SEEN AT KINT AND KGSO...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY (20-25 KTS) AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS. IF
THERE IS A BREAK IN THE PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR...BUT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...EXPECT THEM TO VEER TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. CIGS WILL LIFT AND VISBYS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. -KC

LOOKING AHEAD: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME MORNING STRATUS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND. -KRD

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KC/KRD
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 150227
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1027 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT... THEN PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM MONDAY...

WARM MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING WITH
DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT... CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE AROUND NEW ORLEANS. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT... APPROACHING THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE WEAK PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT MOVED ACROSS TN/GA/SC AND WESTERN NC EARLIER TODAY
WEAKENED FURTHER THIS EVENING AND HAS LEFT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
NOW FORMING ON THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY IS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
IN GENERAL... WITH A NOSE OF MLCAPE (SMALL AMOUNT 100-250 J/KG)
EXTENDING UP TOWARDS THE DAVIDSON/ROWAN COUNTY LINE. THIS COUPLE
WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 40-50 KTS) AND
A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE (0-1KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2) HAS
YIELDED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITH THESE VERY SHALLOW SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM TIME TO TIME. AT THIS TIME DO NOT THINK ANY WEAK ROTATION WILL
RESULT IN ANY ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES AS THE UPDRAFTS DO NO APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH. THAT SAID... WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RADAR
FOR ANY QUICK SPIKE IN INTENSITY WITH THESE SHOWERS/STORMS SINCE
THEY ARE INVOF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER.

GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED DEEP SHEAR AND FAVORABLE ATLANTIC LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW WE WILL NEED TO WATCH ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT... ESPECIALLY WITH THE LATEST RAP
SHOWING AS MUCH AS 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. LATEST HRRR AND RAP
SHOW AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THUS... WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH POPS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN MENTION OF SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM GIVEN THE
INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. THUS... EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

WEAKENING LIFT BUT WITH INCREASING 0-3KM SHEAR MOVES EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY TUESDAY...THEN THERE IS FORECAST A
BRIEF RESPITE IN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND MID-MORNING WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN 850MB THETA-E VALUES AND INSTABILITY. AS THE
AFTERNOON APPROACHES...850MB WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 50 TO 55KT AS
A 120KT 300MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...COINCIDENT WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90KT 500MB JET. WHILE 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES
ARE ONLY FORECAST AROUND 6C/KM...AND THOSE MAINLY EAST OF U.S. 1...
MUCAPE THAT INCREASES OVERNIGHT TO NEARLY 1000J/KG ON THE NAM OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WITH VALUES FROM 1000-1500J/KG DURING TUESDAY. 0-3KM SHEAR
IS ON THE ORDER OF 40-50KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING FURTHER
TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR LATE. MODEST LAPSE RATES IN A
BROADLY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...
BUT SYSTEM DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD COMPENSATE
FOR THIS AND MAKE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
TUESDAY. IF A LOCATION SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS...IT WOULD SEEM TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 WHERE
THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE BETTER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS LIFTED INDICES THERE SHOULD BE -2C TO -4C...WITH
BETTER HEATING EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO
BE WIND...BUT WITH 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES FROM 100-300 M2/S2...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS WERE LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE ANTICIPATING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE
MORNING...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 80 SOUTHEAST.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. ONCE THE STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD END...THEN IMPACTS TURN TOWARD THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
FORECASTING LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...AND WHILE WINDS IN MANY LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY UP THROUGH A LARGE PART OF THE NIGHT IN A TIGHT GRADIENT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...LATE AT NIGHT THERE
SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND REDUCTION IN COMBINATION WITH SIMPLE
ADVECTION TO RESULT IN SEVERAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING. WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
KEEPING OUT THE IMMEDIATE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FOR NOW DUE TO
GREATER WIND AND MIXING EXPECTED THERE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 29 TO 32
MOSTLY FROM U.S. 1 WEST...33 TO 37 IN THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

FOR WED THROUGH THU NIGHT: THE INTENSE BUT DAMPENING TROUGH WILL
TRACK QUICKLY TO OUR NORTHEAST IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WED...AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY FLAT SW FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST/MIDSOUTH/
CAROLINAS THROUGH WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND STABLE AS
THE CENTER OF THE COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE NOSING DOWN
THROUGH NC. EXPECT BREEZY AND COOL WINDS FROM THE NE WED...
DIMINISHING LATE WED INTO THU AS THE MSLP GRADIENT RELAXES. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE TUE NIGHT TO OVER 70 M
BELOW NORMAL...WITH ONLY MODEST RECOVERY DURING THE DAY...
TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S. (AND THIS MAY EVEN BE
OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING THE PROJECTED 925 MB TEMPS BROUGHT DOWN DRY
ADIABATICALLY YIELD HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50 OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC.)
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH DEEP
DRY/STABLE AIR AS THE SLOWLY RETREATING AND MODIFYING SURFACE RIDGE
NOSES INTO NC FROM THE NORTH... ALTHOUGH WE COULD START TO SEE
PATCHY STRATUS LATE THU NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE-DIRECTED FLOW.
LIGHT WINDS AND A CONTINUED ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR MASS WILL FOSTER
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS... AND ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE IS
POSSIBLE WED NIGHT... PARTICULARLY IN THE RURAL AREAS OF THE
PIEDMONT. NOT QUITE AS COOL THU WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 59-64.
LOWS THU NIGHT 37-42 WITH RISING DEW POINTS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON: LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NOAM THU IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT HEADS
EASTWARD INTO ERN NOAM FRI/SAT. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DRAW ENERGY FROM THE NRN GULF TOWARD THE NE... INDUCING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NE GULF OR FL... WHICH WOULD THEN
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI
NIGHT/SAT. THE GFS IS FAIRLY DRY HERE... HOLDING ITS SRN STREAM
PRECIP TO OUR SE AND ANY NRN STREAM PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. THE ECMWF
IS STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE... DEEPENING IT OVER SRN GA AND
FL... BUT IT TOO HOLDS MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS WAVE TO OUR SE.
WILL RETAIN THE BASIC STRUCTURE OF THE PRECIP CHANCES WE CURRENTLY
HAVE IN THERE... BUT REDUCE THEM AND CONFINE THE BETTER POPS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. AFTER BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN TROUGHS
SHIFT EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT... MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERSPREADS THE GULF/MIDSOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS SAT NIGHT AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE EASTER SUNDAY
WITH MODERATING TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MONDAY`S FORECAST AS THE GFS DEEPENS A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES... LEADING TO SURFACE LOW FORMATION ALONG A ROUGHLY E-W
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING IN... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER/SLOWER AND KEEPS NC DRY MON. WILL GO WITH THE
WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY DRY FOR NOW... BUT STAY TUNED.
EXPECT TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR...BUT
THIS WILL CHANGE FAIRLY SOON AS AVIATION CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
WITHIN A RAPIDLY MOISTENING AIR MASS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITHIN ANY SHOWER.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE (GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE). REGARDLESS...CIGS SHOULD FALL INTO THE IFR TO
LIFR RANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP
TUESDAY MORNING AND THIS IS WHEN CIGS MAY BRIEFLY RISE INTO THE MVFR
RANGE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD AND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING (MAYBE JUST AFTER THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD IN THE EAST)...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND
CLEARING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN GUSTY...LIKELY
25-30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT AND THEN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME MORNING STRATUS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 150035
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
835 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT... THEN PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE CLIMBED TO NEAR AN INCH...AND
INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE DAY WITH MSAS SHOWING LIFTED
INDICES AROUND -2C AND MLCAPE ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS A COUPLE OF
HUNDRED J/KG...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PIEDMONT IN
UPPER DIFFLUENCE AS A MODEST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE
LATEST HRRR WRF IS HANDLING THE LOCATION...COVERAGE...AND INTENSITY
OF THESE SHOWERS FAIRLY WELL...AND THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE...MOSTLY THE RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN AS
SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTINUES...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY 12Z
TUESDAY AS 850MB THETA-E VALUES INCREASE AS WELL. MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY APPROACH...AND THE NAM IN PARTICULAR FORECASTS 850MB LIFT TO
DECREASE...BUT 850MB WINDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ADD TO
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT...AND 0-3KM SHEAR INCREASES AS WELL TO
AROUND 40KT PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE. ALREADY...
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS INCREASED TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS...AND
GRADUALLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THE COVERAGE OF
NUMEROUS OR GREATER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THE AREA WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD
BE OVER THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT...THEN OVERNIGHT...EXPECT BETTER
COVERAGE GRADUALLY EASTWARD. AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE...AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT WHERE THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND 850MB WINDS AND LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO BE BEST OVERNIGHT. ALSO...IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE NAM
MOS GUIDANCE FORECASTS SUSTAINED WINDS TO 25KT AT KGSO AND EVEN THE
GFS FORECASTS SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS TO JUST BELOW 20KT LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW DECENT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...IT WOULD SEEM...AS ANY
HEAVIER SHOWER MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AROUND AND JUST AFTER 06Z...
THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE AT KGSO WITH
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO 40KT...AND THE NAM...WHILE
DRIER...DOES HAVE A SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BE WARM...IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

WEAKENING LIFT BUT WITH INCREASING 0-3KM SHEAR MOVES EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY TUESDAY...THEN THERE IS FORECAST A
BRIEF RESPITE IN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND MID-MORNING WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN 850MB THETA-E VALUES AND INSTABILITY. AS THE
AFTERNOON APPROACHES...850MB WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 50 TO 55KT AS
A 120KT 300MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...COINCIDENT WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90KT 500MB JET. WHILE 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES
ARE ONLY FORECAST AROUND 6C/KM...AND THOSE MAINLY EAST OF U.S. 1...
MUCAPE THAT INCREASES OVERNIGHT TO NEARLY 1000J/KG ON THE NAM OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WITH VALUES FROM 1000-1500J/KG DURING TUESDAY. 0-3KM SHEAR
IS ON THE ORDER OF 40-50KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING FURTHER
TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR LATE. MODEST LAPSE RATES IN A
BROADLY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...
BUT SYSTEM DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD COMPENSATE
FOR THIS AND MAKE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
TUESDAY. IF A LOCATION SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS...IT WOULD SEEM TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 WHERE
THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE BETTER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS LIFTED INDICES THERE SHOULD BE -2C TO -4C...WITH
BETTER HEATING EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO
BE WIND...BUT WITH 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES FROM 100-300 M2/S2...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS WERE LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE ANTICIPATING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE
MORNING...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 80 SOUTHEAST.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. ONCE THE STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD END...THEN IMPACTS TURN TOWARD THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
FORECASTING LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...AND WHILE WINDS IN MANY LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY UP THROUGH A LARGE PART OF THE NIGHT IN A TIGHT GRADIENT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...LATE AT NIGHT THERE
SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND REDUCTION IN COMBINATION WITH SIMPLE
ADVECTION TO RESULT IN SEVERAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING. WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
KEEPING OUT THE IMMEDIATE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FOR NOW DUE TO
GREATER WIND AND MIXING EXPECTED THERE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 29 TO 32
MOSTLY FROM U.S. 1 WEST...33 TO 37 IN THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

FOR WED THROUGH THU NIGHT: THE INTENSE BUT DAMPENING TROUGH WILL
TRACK QUICKLY TO OUR NORTHEAST IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WED...AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY FLAT SW FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST/MIDSOUTH/
CAROLINAS THROUGH WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND STABLE AS
THE CENTER OF THE COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE NOSING DOWN
THROUGH NC. EXPECT BREEZY AND COOL WINDS FROM THE NE WED...
DIMINISHING LATE WED INTO THU AS THE MSLP GRADIENT RELAXES. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE TUE NIGHT TO OVER 70 M
BELOW NORMAL...WITH ONLY MODEST RECOVERY DURING THE DAY...
TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S. (AND THIS MAY EVEN BE
OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING THE PROJECTED 925 MB TEMPS BROUGHT DOWN DRY
ADIABATICALLY YIELD HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50 OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC.)
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH DEEP
DRY/STABLE AIR AS THE SLOWLY RETREATING AND MODIFYING SURFACE RIDGE
NOSES INTO NC FROM THE NORTH... ALTHOUGH WE COULD START TO SEE
PATCHY STRATUS LATE THU NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE-DIRECTED FLOW.
LIGHT WINDS AND A CONTINUED ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR MASS WILL FOSTER
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS... AND ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE IS
POSSIBLE WED NIGHT... PARTICULARLY IN THE RURAL AREAS OF THE
PIEDMONT. NOT QUITE AS COOL THU WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 59-64.
LOWS THU NIGHT 37-42 WITH RISING DEW POINTS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON: LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NOAM THU IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT HEADS
EASTWARD INTO ERN NOAM FRI/SAT. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DRAW ENERGY FROM THE NRN GULF TOWARD THE NE... INDUCING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NE GULF OR FL... WHICH WOULD THEN
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI
NIGHT/SAT. THE GFS IS FAIRLY DRY HERE... HOLDING ITS SRN STREAM
PRECIP TO OUR SE AND ANY NRN STREAM PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. THE ECMWF
IS STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE... DEEPENING IT OVER SRN GA AND
FL... BUT IT TOO HOLDS MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS WAVE TO OUR SE.
WILL RETAIN THE BASIC STRUCTURE OF THE PRECIP CHANCES WE CURRENTLY
HAVE IN THERE... BUT REDUCE THEM AND CONFINE THE BETTER POPS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. AFTER BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN TROUGHS
SHIFT EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT... MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERSPREADS THE GULF/MIDSOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS SAT NIGHT AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE EASTER SUNDAY
WITH MODERATING TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MONDAY`S FORECAST AS THE GFS DEEPENS A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES... LEADING TO SURFACE LOW FORMATION ALONG A ROUGHLY E-W
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING IN... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER/SLOWER AND KEEPS NC DRY MON. WILL GO WITH THE
WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY DRY FOR NOW... BUT STAY TUNED.
EXPECT TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR...BUT
THIS WILL CHANGE FAIRLY SOON AS AVIATION CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
WITHIN A RAPIDLY MOISTENING AIR MASS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITHIN ANY SHOWER.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE (GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE). REGARDLESS...CIGS SHOULD FALL INTO THE IFR TO
LIFR RANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP
TUESDAY MORNING AND THIS IS WHEN CIGS MAY BRIEFLY RISE INTO THE MVFR
RANGE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD AND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING (MAYBE JUST AFTER THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD IN THE EAST)...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND
CLEARING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN GUSTY...LIKELY
25-30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT AND THEN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME MORNING STRATUS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KRD
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 141903
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
302 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT... THEN PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE CLIMBED TO NEAR AN INCH...AND
INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE DAY WITH MSAS SHOWING LIFTED
INDICES AROUND -2C AND MLCAPE ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS A COUPLE OF
HUNDRED J/KG...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PIEDMONT IN
UPPER DIFFLUENCE AS A MODEST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE
LATEST HRRR WRF IS HANDLING THE LOCATION...COVERAGE...AND INTENSITY
OF THESE SHOWERS FAIRLY WELL...AND THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE...MOSTLY THE RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN AS
SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONTINUES...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY 12Z
TUESDAY AS 850MB THETA-E VALUES INCREASE AS WELL. MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY APPROACH...AND THE NAM IN PARTICULAR FORECASTS 850MB LIFT TO
DECREASE...BUT 850MB WINDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ADD TO
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT...AND 0-3KM SHEAR INCREASES AS WELL TO
AROUND 40KT PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE. ALREADY...
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS INCREASED TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS...AND
GRADUALLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THE COVERAGE OF
NUMEROUS OR GREATER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THE AREA WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD
BE OVER THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT...THEN OVERNIGHT...EXPECT BETTER
COVERAGE GRADUALLY EASTWARD. AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE...AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT WHERE THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND 850MB WINDS AND LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO BE BEST OVERNIGHT. ALSO...IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE NAM
MOS GUIDANCE FORECASTS SUSTAINED WINDS TO 25KT AT KGSO AND EVEN THE
GFS FORECASTS SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS TO JUST BELOW 20KT LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW DECENT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...IT WOULD SEEM...AS ANY
HEAVIER SHOWER MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AROUND AND JUST AFTER 06Z...
THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE AT KGSO WITH
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO 40KT...AND THE NAM...WHILE
DRIER...DOES HAVE A SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BE WARM...IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

WEAKENING LIFT BUT WITH INCREASING 0-3KM SHEAR MOVES EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY TUESDAY...THEN THERE IS FORECAST A
BRIEF RESPITE IN THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AROUND MID-MORNING WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN 850MB THETA-E VALUES AND INSTABILITY. AS THE
AFTERNOON APPROACHES...850MB WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 50 TO 55KT AS
A 120KT 300MB JET MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...COINCIDENT WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90KT 500MB JET. WHILE 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES
ARE ONLY FORECAST AROUND 6C/KM...AND THOSE MAINLY EAST OF U.S. 1...
MUCAPE THAT INCREASES OVERNIGHT TO NEARLY 1000J/KG ON THE NAM OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA WITH VALUES FROM 1000-1500J/KG DURING TUESDAY. 0-3KM SHEAR
IS ON THE ORDER OF 40-50KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING FURTHER
TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR LATE. MODEST LAPSE RATES IN A
BROADLY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...
BUT SYSTEM DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD COMPENSATE
FOR THIS AND MAKE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
TUESDAY. IF A LOCATION SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS...IT WOULD SEEM TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 WHERE
THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE BETTER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS LIFTED INDICES THERE SHOULD BE -2C TO -4C...WITH
BETTER HEATING EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO
BE WIND...BUT WITH 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES FROM 100-300 M2/S2...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS WERE LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER MAV GUIDANCE ANTICIPATING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION DURING THE
MORNING...UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 80 SOUTHEAST.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN. ONCE THE STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD END...THEN IMPACTS TURN TOWARD THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
FORECASTING LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF RUNS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...AND WHILE WINDS IN MANY LOCATIONS
SHOULD STAY UP THROUGH A LARGE PART OF THE NIGHT IN A TIGHT GRADIENT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...LATE AT NIGHT THERE
SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND REDUCTION IN COMBINATION WITH SIMPLE
ADVECTION TO RESULT IN SEVERAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING. WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
KEEPING OUT THE IMMEDIATE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FOR NOW DUE TO
GREATER WIND AND MIXING EXPECTED THERE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 29 TO 32
MOSTLY FROM U.S. 1 WEST...33 TO 37 IN THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...

FOR WED THROUGH THU NIGHT: THE INTENSE BUT DAMPENING TROUGH WILL
TRACK QUICKLY TO OUR NORTHEAST IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WED...AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY FLAT SW FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST/MIDSOUTH/
CAROLINAS THROUGH WED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND STABLE AS
THE CENTER OF THE COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE NOSING DOWN
THROUGH NC. EXPECT BREEZY AND COOL WINDS FROM THE NE WED...
DIMINISHING LATE WED INTO THU AS THE MSLP GRADIENT RELAXES. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE TUE NIGHT TO OVER 70 M
BELOW NORMAL...WITH ONLY MODEST RECOVERY DURING THE DAY...
TRANSLATING TO HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S. (AND THIS MAY EVEN BE
OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING THE PROJECTED 925 MB TEMPS BROUGHT DOWN DRY
ADIABATICALLY YIELD HIGHS ONLY AROUND 50 OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC.)
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH DEEP
DRY/STABLE AIR AS THE SLOWLY RETREATING AND MODIFYING SURFACE RIDGE
NOSES INTO NC FROM THE NORTH... ALTHOUGH WE COULD START TO SEE
PATCHY STRATUS LATE THU NIGHT WITH INCREASING ONSHORE-DIRECTED FLOW.
LIGHT WINDS AND A CONTINUED ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR MASS WILL FOSTER
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS... AND ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE IS
POSSIBLE WED NIGHT... PARTICULARLY IN THE RURAL AREAS OF THE
PIEDMONT. NOT QUITE AS COOL THU WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE 59-64.
LOWS THU NIGHT 37-42 WITH RISING DEW POINTS.

FOR FRI THROUGH MON: LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL NOAM THU IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT HEADS
EASTWARD INTO ERN NOAM FRI/SAT. THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DRAW ENERGY FROM THE NRN GULF TOWARD THE NE... INDUCING
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NE GULF OR FL... WHICH WOULD THEN
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER OR JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI
NIGHT/SAT. THE GFS IS FAIRLY DRY HERE... HOLDING ITS SRN STREAM
PRECIP TO OUR SE AND ANY NRN STREAM PRECIP TO OUR NORTH. THE ECMWF
IS STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE... DEEPENING IT OVER SRN GA AND
FL... BUT IT TOO HOLDS MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS WAVE TO OUR SE.
WILL RETAIN THE BASIC STRUCTURE OF THE PRECIP CHANCES WE CURRENTLY
HAVE IN THERE... BUT REDUCE THEM AND CONFINE THE BETTER POPS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. AFTER BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN TROUGHS
SHIFT EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT... MID LEVEL
RIDGING OVERSPREADS THE GULF/MIDSOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS SAT NIGHT AND A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE EASTER SUNDAY
WITH MODERATING TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MONDAY`S FORECAST AS THE GFS DEEPENS A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES... LEADING TO SURFACE LOW FORMATION ALONG A ROUGHLY E-W
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING IN... WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER/SLOWER AND KEEPS NC DRY MON. WILL GO WITH THE
WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY DRY FOR NOW... BUT STAY TUNED.
EXPECT TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM MONDAY...

ASIDE FROM A THREAT OF BKN MVFR CIGS NEAR INT/GSO EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD FROM 18Z-20Z TODAY... A PERIOD OF CONTINUED PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING (THROUGH
AROUND 02Z OR 03Z)... WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-15 KTS
SPORADICALLY GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS... AND VFR CIGS. PATCHY SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR PRIMARILY AT FAY... BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO LAST ANY MORE THAN
15 MIN AT ANY ONE TIME. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE THIS EVENING... AROUND 02Z OR 03Z... WITH CIGS DROPPING
TO MVFR THEN FAIRLY QUICKLY TO IFR IN THE 04Z-06Z TIME FRAME... WITH
CONTINUED STOUT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SSW (FROM 180-210 DEGREES)
STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 14-17 KTS GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT ON-AND-OFF MAINLY MVFR-VSBY-PRODUCING SHOWERS FROM THIS 04Z-
06Z TIME FRAME THROUGH AROUND 11Z-13Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY
FROM THE SSW THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD... POTENTIALLY
INDUCING MECHANICAL TURBULENCE... BUT A LULL IN SHOWERS IS THEN
EXPECTED FROM THIS 11Z-13Z WINDOW LASTING A FEW HOURS. CIGS MAY RISE
A BIT TO MVFR DURING THIS RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP. HOWEVER... AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST... INT/GSO MAY SEE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD (AFTER 16Z).

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE: WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERATING IFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM 18Z
THROUGH 06Z... AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE STATE. STRONG
WINDS FROM THE SSW AND SW WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO BE FROM THE NW TUE
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS POST-
FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THU EVENING. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SHALLOW LOW STRATUS LATE THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING...
THEN A BETTER CHANCE OF THICKER LOW STRATUS FRI NIGHT THROUGH NOON
SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083-084.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...MWS





000
FXUS62 KRAH 141757
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
155 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE WEST LATE TONIGHT... THEN PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1055 AM MONDAY...

THE 12Z KGSO SOUNDING WAS CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION WITH A GOOD CAP
BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB...AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ABOVE 500MB. THE
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A RELATIVE MINIMUM OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ALTHOUGH WITH A
NARROW RIBBON OF INCREASING VALUES...JUST BELOW AN INCH...EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE EAST WAS PROVIDING A
MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC INTO THE AREA...WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

TO OUR WEST...THE SURFACE LOW WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH DUE TO THE
OFFSET UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS
DECREASING THE SURFACE PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING IN
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION IN A SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SURFACE WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY AND HAVE INCREASED THE DEWPOINTS AS
MOIST AND WARM AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN LIFT AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA AND AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POPPING UP TO OUR WEST AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
EVENTUALLY PRODUCE CONVECTIVE STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EASTWARD.

THE 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED SOME DIFFLUENCE TO OUR WEST AND
THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A SERIES
OF MID-LEVEL WAVES MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST
RAP SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL CAP WEAKENING WITH TIME THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND SLIGHT 700MB COOLING ON THE 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS
WOULD SUGGEST THIS...ALTHOUGH THE RAP ALSO FORECASTS A MODEST
INCREASE IN THOSE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE
MOISTURE IN PLACE...MODEST INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE
AROUND 400J/KG AND MLCAPE IN THHIGHS TODAY WERE LOWERED ABOUT A
DEGREE IN THE TRIAD DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...AND RAISED ABOUT A
DEGREE TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 DUE TO THINNER CLOUDS FOR A LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME THERE. E LOWEST KM AROUND 200J/KG...AND SOME LIFT
WITH THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES...AS THE CAP ERODES ANTICIPATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING...WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. AS THE MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY
LATER...THIS COULD FOR A TIME INHIBIT MORE DEEP CONVECTION...AND
THIS SCENARIO IS NOTED BY MORE THAN ONE WRF MODEL AS WELL AS IMPLIED
BY RAP QPF.

MOISTENING OF THE UPPER LEVELS WILL INCREASE CLOUD DEPTH AND ALLOW
FOR LIFTING OVER A DEEPER LAYER. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
SOME DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AND SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...
HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST LIFTING WILL STAY TO THE WEST WITH THE COLD
FRONT. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT DUE TO ONGOING
MOISTENING...STRENGTHENING HEIGHT FALLS...AND PERIODIC DPVA IN SW
FLOW ALOFT...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM IN THE DEEP SOUTH IN THIS PERIOD...ONE THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS ANOTHER LATE TONIGHT...AND HOW THESE FEATURES
EVOLVE/INTERACT WITH THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL MOST CERTAINLY
AFFECT PRECIP CHANCES DOWNSTREAM IN CENTRAL NC...LENDING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE PRECISE COVERAGE/AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
TONIGHT.

THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT DECREASE...ROUGHLY
A DEGREE...FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN PART OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. HIGHS WERE RAISED ABOUT A DEGREE TOWARD INTERSTATE
95 WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE PERIODS OF THINNER CLOUDS AND MORE
SUNLIGHT HITTING THE GROUND. A VERY MOIST AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR IN THE CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN TEMPS IN
THE MID 60S OVERNIGHT.

THOUGH QUITE CONDITIONAL/UNCERTAIN...IF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND
PROGRESSES INTO CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN INCREASINGLY IMPRESSIVE
LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...

TUE/TUE NIGHT: EXPECT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION NEAR 100% ON TUESDAY AS
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PROGRESS
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS IN THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS VIA PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. AT
THIS TIME...FROPA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 18-21Z IN THE NW
PIEDMONT AND BY 00-03Z IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION THEREAFTER. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION WILL PREVENT MUCH OF A
RISE IN TEMPS PRIOR TO FROPA...TO THE MID/UPPER 70S POTENTIALLY IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE FROPA WILL BE LATER. STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING...AND MARGINAL TO MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION (500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE) CERTAINLY INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THE PRECISE NATURE OF
THE THREAT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN GIVEN A POTENTIAL FOR
UPSTREAM CONVECTION /MCS ACTIVITY/ LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING.
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT(S)...
THE LATTER OF WHICH COULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY BACKED SFC WINDS
/LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED HODOGRAPHS/ POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF ANY SFC WAVES WHICH COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN
CENTRAL/EASTERN NC...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 WHERE
DIURNAL TIMING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A STARK CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES IN
COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER TO UPPER 30S...POTENTIALLY NEAR FREEZING ALONG/WEST OF HWY 1.
A FREEZE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT/WED
MORNING. SINCE LOWS WILL PRIMARILY DEPEND UPON COLD ADVECTION...
SUFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO PRECLUDE ANY FROST/FREEZE PRODUCT
ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. -VINCENT

AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT/DNVA AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DEEP LAYER DRYING
WED...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY NEUTRAL VERTICAL MOTION BUT WITH STILL A
RESIDUALLY DRY AND STRONGLY CAPPED REGIME OVER OUR REGION. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONSEQUENTLY BECOME UNSEASONABLY STRONG - INTO
THE 1040-1045 MB RANGE AS IT BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO NEW
ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...WITH TEMPERATURES 10
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...WILL RESULT OVER CENTRAL NC. INITIALLY
CLEAR SKIES WED WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY...TO PERHAPS MOSTLY SO IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN...BY THU AFTERNOON...AS MOISTURE FLAT
STRATOCUMULUS IS ADVECTED INLAND BENEATH THE CAP.

PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1300-1310 METER RANGE AT
12Z THU AND CLEAR SKIES WOULD SUPPORT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THU
MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE DEGREE OF CALM GIVEN A
PROJECTED 4-6 MB RISE IN MSL PRESSURE WITH THE STRENGTHENING HIGH
WED NIGHT. WILL ADJUST LOWS TO REFLECT MOSTLY LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S...COOLEST WEST...BUT THESE MAY NEED FURTHER DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT
(OR AT LEAST OPEN THE RANGE) TO INCLUDE SOME UPPER 20S (AROUND
RECORD LOWS) IF IT INDEED APPEARS ANY PERIOD OF APPRECIABLE CALM
WILL BE ATTAINED. SIMILARLY COOL IN THE MIDDLE 50S WED...WHICH MAY
THREATEN THE RECORD LOW MAX OF 56 DEGREES AT KFAY FOR THE DATE. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. SLOW MODERATION TO AROUND 60 AND 40 DEGREES
FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...RESPECTIVELY...THU AND THU NIGHT. -MWS

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

THOUGH MODEL SOLUTION SPREAD REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE LONG
TERM...THE EMERGING SIGNAL FROM THE MAJORITY OF BOTH THE ENSEMBLE
AND  SOLUTIONS OS FOR A DOMINANT NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE US...ONE THAT WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST ONE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE CYCLONE FORECAST TO CROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES FRI-SAT - A STORM TRACK THAT
WOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT-SAT NIGHT AS
DEPICTED BY AT LEAST THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF...WHICH HAVE
MINIMAL SUPPORT FROM THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN...SUGGEST MORE IN THE WAY
OF SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHING/INTERACTION THAT WOULD RESULT IN SOME
DEGREE OF COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS AND A WETTER PATTERN FOR AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF NC DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. IN EITHER
SCENARIO...THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WOULD BE LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT
EVENING...SO MENTIONABLE POP WILL BE CONFINED TO THAT TIME UNTIL A
CLEARER PICTURE EMERGES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM MONDAY...

ASIDE FROM A THREAT OF BKN MVFR CIGS NEAR INT/GSO EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD FROM 18Z-20Z TODAY... A PERIOD OF CONTINUED PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING (THROUGH
AROUND 02Z OR 03Z)... WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-15 KTS
SPORADICALLY GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS... AND VFR CIGS. PATCHY SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR PRIMARILY AT FAY... BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO LAST ANY MORE THAN
15 MIN AT ANY ONE TIME. AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE THIS EVENING... AROUND 02Z OR 03Z... WITH CIGS DROPPING
TO MVFR THEN FAIRLY QUICKLY TO IFR IN THE 04Z-06Z TIME FRAME... WITH
CONTINUED STOUT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SSW (FROM 180-210 DEGREES)
STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 14-17 KTS GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT ON-AND-OFF MAINLY MVFR-VSBY-PRODUCING SHOWERS FROM THIS 04Z-
06Z TIME FRAME THROUGH AROUND 11Z-13Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY
FROM THE SSW THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD... POTENTIALLY
INDUCING MECHANICAL TURBULENCE... BUT A LULL IN SHOWERS IS THEN
EXPECTED FROM THIS 11Z-13Z WINDOW LASTING A FEW HOURS. CIGS MAY RISE
A BIT TO MVFR DURING THIS RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP. HOWEVER... AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST... INT/GSO MAY SEE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD (AFTER 16Z).

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z TUE: WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERATING IFR
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM 18Z
THROUGH 06Z... AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE STATE. STRONG
WINDS FROM THE SSW AND SW WILL SHIFT ABRUPTLY TO BE FROM THE NW TUE
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS POST-
FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THU EVENING. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SHALLOW LOW STRATUS LATE THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING...
THEN A BETTER CHANCE OF THICKER LOW STRATUS FRI NIGHT THROUGH NOON
SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU MORNING...
AND THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THU:

            WED 04/16                    THU 04/17
     LOW/YEAR   LOW MAX/YEAR             LOW/YEAR
FAY:  28/1943        56/1950             31/1953
GSO:  25/1943        48/1929             29/1953
RDU:  28/1950        46/1890             29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...DJF/SR/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...MWS





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