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000
FXUS65 KREV 231058
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID-WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC BUILDS INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A DRY FORECAST WITH LIGHT WINDS (AT LEAST FOR VALLEYS) IS IN
STORE FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY STRENGTHENS
OVERHEAD.

AT THE LOW LEVELS, A SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN TODAY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES.
ON TUESDAY, HIGHS JUMP MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MANY AREAS AS
SUBSIDENCE WARMING ALOFT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WORKS DOWN INTO
THE VALLEYS. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED AS THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY BEGINS. RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST AND FLATTEN, RESULTING IN AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
OVER THE REGION BUT NO PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST AREAS
WITH HIGHS PUSHING ABOVE 60 DEGREES IN SOME VALLEYS, THEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

BY FRIDAY, THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST BUT IT IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF PINCHING OFF, RESULTING IN THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING A
BIT OVER THE GREAT BASIN. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVER
MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT THICKER CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS
NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV COULD KEEP THOSE AREAS A FEW DEGREES
COLDER.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND, THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAIN
LOW OFF THE CA COAST, BUT BREAKS OFF A SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES
INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN CA WITH INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW BY SATURDAY FOR
THE SIERRA MAINLY FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD TO NORTHEAST CA, WITH
LIGHTER RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NV. A MAJOR
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THIS WEATHER SYSTEM, AND
SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER HIGH SINCE THE CORE OF THE
LOW STAYS OFFSHORE. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THRU MONDAY. ONLY
EXCEPTION IS PATCHY FZFG AROUND KTRK THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD
DISPERSE BY 15Z AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. THE POTENTIAL FOR FZFG AT
KTRK IS LOWER FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT COULD STILL FORM IF
ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS AFTER 08Z. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)











000
FXUS65 KREV 231058
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID-WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC BUILDS INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A DRY FORECAST WITH LIGHT WINDS (AT LEAST FOR VALLEYS) IS IN
STORE FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY STRENGTHENS
OVERHEAD.

AT THE LOW LEVELS, A SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN TODAY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES.
ON TUESDAY, HIGHS JUMP MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MANY AREAS AS
SUBSIDENCE WARMING ALOFT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WORKS DOWN INTO
THE VALLEYS. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED AS THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY BEGINS. RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST AND FLATTEN, RESULTING IN AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
OVER THE REGION BUT NO PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST AREAS
WITH HIGHS PUSHING ABOVE 60 DEGREES IN SOME VALLEYS, THEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

BY FRIDAY, THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST BUT IT IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF PINCHING OFF, RESULTING IN THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING A
BIT OVER THE GREAT BASIN. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVER
MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT THICKER CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS
NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV COULD KEEP THOSE AREAS A FEW DEGREES
COLDER.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND, THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAIN
LOW OFF THE CA COAST, BUT BREAKS OFF A SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES
INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN CA WITH INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW BY SATURDAY FOR
THE SIERRA MAINLY FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD TO NORTHEAST CA, WITH
LIGHTER RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NV. A MAJOR
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THIS WEATHER SYSTEM, AND
SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER HIGH SINCE THE CORE OF THE
LOW STAYS OFFSHORE. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THRU MONDAY. ONLY
EXCEPTION IS PATCHY FZFG AROUND KTRK THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD
DISPERSE BY 15Z AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. THE POTENTIAL FOR FZFG AT
KTRK IS LOWER FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT COULD STILL FORM IF
ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS AFTER 08Z. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)












000
FXUS65 KREV 230312 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
712 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE WIND WARNING AND ADVISORIES. PEAK WIND
GUSTS ARE ONLY 30-35 MPH AND THOSE ARE ONLY IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
WITH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST AS
THE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS ALSO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH WITH ANY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO END AROUND MIDNIGHT. NO
OTHER UPDATES PLANNED. WALLMANN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING STORM SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW TODAY. CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SLOW WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING STORM SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW TODAY. CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY A SLOW WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

SHORT TERM...

ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY TO THE EXISTING
FORECAST. LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING
WHILE LINGERING WINDS OVER LAKE TAHOE TO AROUND 10 PM. THIS
RESULTED IN THE NEED FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON TAHOE FOR THIS
EVENING.

OTHERWISE, ADJUSTMENTS WERE BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS BUMPING
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY DOWN BY A DEGREE OR SO OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE OVERALL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES IS A LITTLE LOWER FOR
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES STRENGTHENING SURFACE INVERSIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS DROP THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BECOMING
GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST BY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE SEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
BEFORE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S ON TUESDAY; SIERRA VALLEY HIGHS
WILL BE AROUND 60 WHERE MIXING WILL BE BETTER. BOYD

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. LIGHT WINDS AND VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE WED-THU WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WHICH WILL PROMOTE HAZY VALLEY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS VERY NEAR OR A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN WESTERN NEVADA LOCATIONS. OVERALL
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 REGION
WIDE OVER THE HOLIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN THE RIDGE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY EVENING AND USHER IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING THIS LOW BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING
OF ITS INLAND PROGRESSION. THE EC STALLS THE LOW OFF THE COAST AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY WHILE THE GFS BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND PROVIDES CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP ALONG
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY WITH CHANCES EXTENDING
ALONG THE SIERRA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL NOT LOOKING
LIKE AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS LOW THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. FUENTES

AVIATION...

GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40KT EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. GUSTS
ACROSS THE RIDGES WILL ALSO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH WINDS ACROSS
THE SIERRA RIDGES DIMINISHING BELOW 25KTS AFTER 06Z. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 06Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 230312 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
712 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE WIND WARNING AND ADVISORIES. PEAK WIND
GUSTS ARE ONLY 30-35 MPH AND THOSE ARE ONLY IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
WITH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST AS
THE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. SHOWERS ALSO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH WITH ANY SHOWERS EXPECTED TO END AROUND MIDNIGHT. NO
OTHER UPDATES PLANNED. WALLMANN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING STORM SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW TODAY. CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
A SLOW WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING STORM SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW TODAY. CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY A SLOW WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

SHORT TERM...

ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY TO THE EXISTING
FORECAST. LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING
WHILE LINGERING WINDS OVER LAKE TAHOE TO AROUND 10 PM. THIS
RESULTED IN THE NEED FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON TAHOE FOR THIS
EVENING.

OTHERWISE, ADJUSTMENTS WERE BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS BUMPING
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY DOWN BY A DEGREE OR SO OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE OVERALL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES IS A LITTLE LOWER FOR
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES STRENGTHENING SURFACE INVERSIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS DROP THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BECOMING
GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST BY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE SEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
BEFORE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S ON TUESDAY; SIERRA VALLEY HIGHS
WILL BE AROUND 60 WHERE MIXING WILL BE BETTER. BOYD

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. LIGHT WINDS AND VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE WED-THU WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WHICH WILL PROMOTE HAZY VALLEY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS VERY NEAR OR A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN WESTERN NEVADA LOCATIONS. OVERALL
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 REGION
WIDE OVER THE HOLIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN THE RIDGE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY EVENING AND USHER IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING THIS LOW BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING
OF ITS INLAND PROGRESSION. THE EC STALLS THE LOW OFF THE COAST AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY WHILE THE GFS BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND PROVIDES CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP ALONG
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY WITH CHANCES EXTENDING
ALONG THE SIERRA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL NOT LOOKING
LIKE AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS LOW THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. FUENTES

AVIATION...

GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40KT EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. GUSTS
ACROSS THE RIDGES WILL ALSO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH WINDS ACROSS
THE SIERRA RIDGES DIMINISHING BELOW 25KTS AFTER 06Z. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 06Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 222304
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
304 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING STORM SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW TODAY. CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY A SLOW WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY TO THE EXISTING
FORECAST. LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING
WHILE LINGERING WINDS OVER LAKE TAHOE TO AROUND 10 PM. THIS
RESULTED IN THE NEED FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON TAHOE FOR THIS
EVENING.

OTHERWISE, ADJUSTMENTS WERE BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS BUMPING
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY DOWN BY A DEGREE OR SO OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE OVERALL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES IS A LITTLE LOWER FOR
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES STRENGTHENING SURFACE INVERSIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS DROP THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BECOMING
GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST BY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE SEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
BEFORE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S ON TUESDAY; SIERRA VALLEY HIGHS
WILL BE AROUND 60 WHERE MIXING WILL BE BETTER. BOYD

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. LIGHT WINDS AND VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE WED-THU WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WHICH WILL PROMOTE HAZY VALLEY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS VERY NEAR OR A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN WESTERN NEVADA LOCATIONS. OVERALL
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 REGION
WIDE OVER THE HOLIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN THE RIDGE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY EVENING AND USHER IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING THIS LOW BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING
OF ITS INLAND PROGRESSION. THE EC STALLS THE LOW OFF THE COAST AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY WHILE THE GFS BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND PROVIDES CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP ALONG
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY WITH CHANCES EXTENDING
ALONG THE SIERRA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL NOT LOOKING
LIKE AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS LOW THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...

GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40KT EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. GUSTS
ACROSS THE RIDGES WILL ALSO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH WINDS ACROSS
THE SIERRA RIDGES DIMINISHING BELOW 25KTS AFTER 06Z. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 06Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY. FUENTES

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002-005.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
     NVZ002.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ001-004.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ071.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ070-072.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
     CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 222304
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
304 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING STORM SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW TODAY. CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY A SLOW WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY TO THE EXISTING
FORECAST. LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING
WHILE LINGERING WINDS OVER LAKE TAHOE TO AROUND 10 PM. THIS
RESULTED IN THE NEED FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON TAHOE FOR THIS
EVENING.

OTHERWISE, ADJUSTMENTS WERE BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS BUMPING
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY DOWN BY A DEGREE OR SO OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE OVERALL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES IS A LITTLE LOWER FOR
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES STRENGTHENING SURFACE INVERSIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS DROP THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY BECOMING
GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST BY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE SEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
BEFORE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S ON TUESDAY; SIERRA VALLEY HIGHS
WILL BE AROUND 60 WHERE MIXING WILL BE BETTER. BOYD

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. LIGHT WINDS AND VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL BE IN
PLACE WED-THU WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WHICH WILL PROMOTE HAZY VALLEY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS VERY NEAR OR A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN WESTERN NEVADA LOCATIONS. OVERALL
EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 REGION
WIDE OVER THE HOLIDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN THE RIDGE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY EVENING AND USHER IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF IT. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING THIS LOW BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING
OF ITS INLAND PROGRESSION. THE EC STALLS THE LOW OFF THE COAST AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY WHILE THE GFS BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND PROVIDES CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP ALONG
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY WITH CHANCES EXTENDING
ALONG THE SIERRA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL NOT LOOKING
LIKE AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS LOW THIS
FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...

GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40KT EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. GUSTS
ACROSS THE RIDGES WILL ALSO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH WINDS ACROSS
THE SIERRA RIDGES DIMINISHING BELOW 25KTS AFTER 06Z. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 06Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY. FUENTES

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002-005.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
     NVZ002.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ001-004.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ071.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ070-072.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
     CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 221128
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
328 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TODAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SIERRA CREST AND
THE OREGON BORDER. CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS IN EASTERN CALIFORNIA
FROM LASSEN COUNTY SOUTH TO ALPINE COUNTY, SNOW LEVELS ARE RUNNING
BETWEEN 7000-7500 FEET AND 8500 FEET. SO FAR THIS MORNING, THERE
ARE NO CHAIN OR SNOW TIRE REQUIREMENTS IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA
(JUST WET ROADS) WITH ROAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
BELOW 8500 FEET. WIND-WISE, WINDS HAVE PICKED UP SOMEWHAT UP IN
THE SURPRISE VALLEY WITH GUSTS 35-50 MPH. THIS IS LIKELY AIDED BY
A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE CLOSER TO A SURFACE LOW OVER
OREGON. ELSEWHERE, HIGHER WINDS ALOFT HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MIX DOWN
INTO THE VALLEYS WITH A MOIST AND FAIRLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.

THIS MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. GIVEN THAT IT IS ALREADY RAINING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT NORTH OF PORTOLA AND GERLACH, I DO NOT EXPECTED WINDS TO
MAKE IT TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 40 WITH GUSTS 58+). THE
FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA BEFORE NOON, SO I SUSPECT THE ONLY CHANCE FOR HIGH WINDS
FOR LASSEN AND EASTERN PLUMAS/SIERRA COUNTIES WILL BE ALONG
HIGHWAY 395 SOUTH OF JANESVILLE AND PERHAPS IN THE EASTERN SIERRA
VALLEY THIS MORNING...AND THAT CHANCE IS WANING AS PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO SPILLOVER AND DAMPEN POTENTIAL MOUNTAIN WAVES.

FARTHER SOUTH IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA (ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF HIGHWAY 395), THERE IS STILL A FAIR CHANCE AT A PERIOD OF HIGH
WINDS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. IN FACT, WINDS
IN THE FOOTHILLS SOUTHWEST OF RENO (AND SPORADICALLY AT THE RENO
AIRPORT) HAVE BACKED TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHICH MAY INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN/DOWNSLOPE WAVE DEVELOPMENT.

PRECIP-WISE TODAY, DEEP MOISTURE WITH A RESIDUAL PWAT TAP OF
1.2-1.5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COULD AID THE OCCASIONAL
SPILLOVER OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ALTHOUGH THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL REMAIN IN THE SIERRA. IN THE SIERRA,
SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO IMPACTS TO PASSES
LOOK TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FEET. ALSO, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
TAPERING OFF BY THE TIME SNOW LEVELS REALLY COME DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, THE WEATHER QUIETS DOWN AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY REBOUNDING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SNYDER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO POINT TO STRONG RIDGE TUE-WED
WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF +15 DAM. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DO SHOW A LOT OF HIGH CLOUDS MAKING IT THROUGH THE RIDGE, SO
TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING AS HIGH AS SOME OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. BY
THU-FRI, UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AS ENERGY
ADVANCES EASTWARD IN THE PACIFIC. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL WITH A POTENTIAL TROUGH PASSAGE NEXT WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO SHOW SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES BY
SAT-SUN OVER NV. AT THE SAME TIME, THE GFS HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH
THAT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS MAINTAINED NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHWEST
NV FRI-SAT. FOR TRAVEL PURPOSES, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL
BE NO IMPACT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. CONFIDENCE DROPS TO
LOW FOR THE WEEKEND AS THERE IS AT LEAST A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE ARE TRYING TO ANTICIPATE SOME WARMING OF
VALLEYS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THU-FRI AND HAVE WARMED TEMPS UP A
NOTCH BOTH DAYS. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER JET ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND NORTHWEST NV WILL COMBINE WITH
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY WITH LEE SIDE TURBULENCE LIKELY. RIDGE WINDS WILL GUST AS
HIGH AS 90KT WITH PERIODS OF STRONG WIND GUSTS 40-60KT ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR. STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD WINDS WILL BE IN
THE 15Z-21Z WINDOW, BUT MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER OVER MONO COUNTY AS
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE MAINTAINED
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT TAHOE AND SIERRA FRONT AIRPORTS WHERE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT. OUT IN THE BASIN
AND RANGE, BLOWING DUST WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO AROUND ONE MILE AT
TIMES.

MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND BRIEF PERIODS MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN RAIN SHOWERS NEAR KTRK/KTVL WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOWFALL BY
SUNDOWN AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO WANE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. HOHMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002-005.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ001-004.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ071.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ070-072.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ073.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 221128
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
328 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TODAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SIERRA CREST AND
THE OREGON BORDER. CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND DRIER ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS IN EASTERN CALIFORNIA
FROM LASSEN COUNTY SOUTH TO ALPINE COUNTY, SNOW LEVELS ARE RUNNING
BETWEEN 7000-7500 FEET AND 8500 FEET. SO FAR THIS MORNING, THERE
ARE NO CHAIN OR SNOW TIRE REQUIREMENTS IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA
(JUST WET ROADS) WITH ROAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
BELOW 8500 FEET. WIND-WISE, WINDS HAVE PICKED UP SOMEWHAT UP IN
THE SURPRISE VALLEY WITH GUSTS 35-50 MPH. THIS IS LIKELY AIDED BY
A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT THERE CLOSER TO A SURFACE LOW OVER
OREGON. ELSEWHERE, HIGHER WINDS ALOFT HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MIX DOWN
INTO THE VALLEYS WITH A MOIST AND FAIRLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.

THIS MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. GIVEN THAT IT IS ALREADY RAINING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT NORTH OF PORTOLA AND GERLACH, I DO NOT EXPECTED WINDS TO
MAKE IT TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 40 WITH GUSTS 58+). THE
FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA BEFORE NOON, SO I SUSPECT THE ONLY CHANCE FOR HIGH WINDS
FOR LASSEN AND EASTERN PLUMAS/SIERRA COUNTIES WILL BE ALONG
HIGHWAY 395 SOUTH OF JANESVILLE AND PERHAPS IN THE EASTERN SIERRA
VALLEY THIS MORNING...AND THAT CHANCE IS WANING AS PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO SPILLOVER AND DAMPEN POTENTIAL MOUNTAIN WAVES.

FARTHER SOUTH IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA (ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF HIGHWAY 395), THERE IS STILL A FAIR CHANCE AT A PERIOD OF HIGH
WINDS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. IN FACT, WINDS
IN THE FOOTHILLS SOUTHWEST OF RENO (AND SPORADICALLY AT THE RENO
AIRPORT) HAVE BACKED TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHICH MAY INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN/DOWNSLOPE WAVE DEVELOPMENT.

PRECIP-WISE TODAY, DEEP MOISTURE WITH A RESIDUAL PWAT TAP OF
1.2-1.5 INCHES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COULD AID THE OCCASIONAL
SPILLOVER OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ALTHOUGH THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL REMAIN IN THE SIERRA. IN THE SIERRA,
SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO IMPACTS TO PASSES
LOOK TO BE MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FEET. ALSO, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
TAPERING OFF BY THE TIME SNOW LEVELS REALLY COME DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, THE WEATHER QUIETS DOWN AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY BEFORE SLOWLY REBOUNDING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SNYDER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO POINT TO STRONG RIDGE TUE-WED
WITH GFS 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF +15 DAM. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DO SHOW A LOT OF HIGH CLOUDS MAKING IT THROUGH THE RIDGE, SO
TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING AS HIGH AS SOME OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. BY
THU-FRI, UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN AS ENERGY
ADVANCES EASTWARD IN THE PACIFIC. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL WITH A POTENTIAL TROUGH PASSAGE NEXT WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO SHOW SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES BY
SAT-SUN OVER NV. AT THE SAME TIME, THE GFS HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH
THAT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS MAINTAINED NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHWEST
NV FRI-SAT. FOR TRAVEL PURPOSES, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL
BE NO IMPACT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. CONFIDENCE DROPS TO
LOW FOR THE WEEKEND AS THERE IS AT LEAST A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE ARE TRYING TO ANTICIPATE SOME WARMING OF
VALLEYS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THU-FRI AND HAVE WARMED TEMPS UP A
NOTCH BOTH DAYS. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER JET ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND NORTHWEST NV WILL COMBINE WITH
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY WITH LEE SIDE TURBULENCE LIKELY. RIDGE WINDS WILL GUST AS
HIGH AS 90KT WITH PERIODS OF STRONG WIND GUSTS 40-60KT ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR. STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD WINDS WILL BE IN
THE 15Z-21Z WINDOW, BUT MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER OVER MONO COUNTY AS
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE MAINTAINED
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT TAHOE AND SIERRA FRONT AIRPORTS WHERE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT. OUT IN THE BASIN
AND RANGE, BLOWING DUST WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO AROUND ONE MILE AT
TIMES.

MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND BRIEF PERIODS MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN RAIN SHOWERS NEAR KTRK/KTVL WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOWFALL BY
SUNDOWN AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO WANE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. HOHMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002-005.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ001-004.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ071.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ070-072.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ073.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 220134
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
534 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IS CAUSING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA EARLY
THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 8000 FEET, SO SIERRA PASSES
ARE UNLIKELY TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF MT ROSE HIGHWAY.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
THE GREATEST IMPACT THE INCREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY. DJ

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW NEAR THE SIERRA CREST AND
NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND DRIER ON
SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES TREND
WARMER.

SHORT TERM...

NO LARGE VARIATIONS IN MODEL OUTPUTS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED WITH A MODERATELY STRONG SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE SIERRA
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE MAINLY AFTER 10 PM FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT. GUSTS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 55-65 MPH RANGE, BUT ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO
75 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. WIND PRONE AREAS
COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH AS WINDS DUCT TO VALLEY FLOORS IN THE
LEE OF THE SIERRA. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ELSEWHERE
INCLUDING THE TAHOE BASIN AND NEVADA INTERIOR. THE PRIMARY
MECHANICS FORCING THESE WINDS ARE A STRONG 160 MPH JET MOVING
INTO THE REGION WITH 800MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH AND A DECENT
STABLE LAYER DUCTING HIGHER LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE. BLOWING
DUST MAY BECOME A PROBLEM EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 RESULTING IN RAPID
REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY FOR MOTORISTS. ADDITIONALLY, HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO CROSS-WINDS ALONG NORTH TO SOUTH
ROUTES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. EXTRA CARE SHOULD BE EXERCISED IF YOU
WILL BE OUT AND ABOUT.

OTHER WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL NOT BE AS STOUT AS THE WINDS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BROAD SWATH OF MOISTURE AIMED AT THE SIERRA,
PWATS FROM 1-1.5", FORCING DYNAMICS ARE LARGELY DISPLACED INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STILL, SNOW TOTALS ABOVE 8000 FEET COULD
ACCUMULATE TO A FEW INCHES, GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 INCHES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY VARIABLE COMING IN WARM THEN LOWERING AS
PRECIPITATION DRAGS THEM DOWN. COOLER UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL
BELOW 6500 FEET WAITING UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN, THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED INTO EASTERN NEVADA.

EXPECT COLDER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S FOR
WESTERN NEVADA AND LOWER 40S FOR THE SIERRA ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN TREND WARMER THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 50S FOR WESTERN NEVADA BY MONDAY. THERE COULD
BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES INCLUDING
SURPRISE VALLEY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS SYSTEMS DROP
DOWN THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. BOYD

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ALONG
WITH REDUCED ENSEMBLE UNCERTAINTY. THE EC HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS
SOLUTION OF A WARMER/DRIER PATTERN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. THIS BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES
HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE TO MODERATE THROUGH MIDWEEK. LIGHT WINDS
AND STRENGTHENING VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BUT A MORE GRADUAL TEMPERATURE INCREASE IS
EXPECTED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
BY THANKSGIVING DAY WITH MID 50S TO NEAR 60 EXPECTED ACROSS SIERRA
VALLEYS.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY TIME FRAME AS MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
WEST COAST. THE SYSTEM DOESN`T LOOK TO BE A STRONG ONE BUT MAY
PROVIDE ANOTHER QUICK HIT OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS ALSO HINTING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS TO FOLLOW AS RIDGING BREAKS
DOWN ALONG WEST COAST AND SYSTEMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA.
DETAILS AND CONFIDENCE REMAIN LOW THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST BUT
AT LEAST SOME HOPE OVER THE FREQUENT RIDGING PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. FUENTES

AVIATION...

MAIN AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG WINDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A 140KT JET CROSSES INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MOUNTAIN WAVES AND TURBULENCE WILL INCREASE BEGINNING
THIS EVENING WITH THE BULK OF THE INCREASE EXPECTED BETWEEN 06-18Z
SATURDAY MORNING WHERE GUSTS NEAR 90KTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SIERRA RIDGES. TERMINALS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA MAY SEE GUSTS OF 40-60 KT MAINLY AROUND 06Z-21Z SATURDAY.
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MAY ACCOMPANY THE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN AND
RANGE SATURDAY.

MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION AND BRIEF PERIODS MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS KTRK/KTVL MAINLY AROUND 12Z
WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOWFALL AFTER 00Z SUNDAY BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOR KRNO/KCXP A 20% CHANGE OF RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z SAT - 00Z SUN. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     NVZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     NVZ002-005.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM PST SATURDAY NVZ001.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY NVZ004.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     CAZ070-071.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM PST SATURDAY CAZ073.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 220134
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
534 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IS CAUSING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA EARLY
THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 8000 FEET, SO SIERRA PASSES
ARE UNLIKELY TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF MT ROSE HIGHWAY.
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
THE GREATEST IMPACT THE INCREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY. DJ

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW NEAR THE SIERRA CREST AND
NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND DRIER ON
SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES TREND
WARMER.

SHORT TERM...

NO LARGE VARIATIONS IN MODEL OUTPUTS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED WITH A MODERATELY STRONG SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE SIERRA
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE MAINLY AFTER 10 PM FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT. GUSTS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 55-65 MPH RANGE, BUT ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO
75 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. WIND PRONE AREAS
COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH AS WINDS DUCT TO VALLEY FLOORS IN THE
LEE OF THE SIERRA. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ELSEWHERE
INCLUDING THE TAHOE BASIN AND NEVADA INTERIOR. THE PRIMARY
MECHANICS FORCING THESE WINDS ARE A STRONG 160 MPH JET MOVING
INTO THE REGION WITH 800MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH AND A DECENT
STABLE LAYER DUCTING HIGHER LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE. BLOWING
DUST MAY BECOME A PROBLEM EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 RESULTING IN RAPID
REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY FOR MOTORISTS. ADDITIONALLY, HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO CROSS-WINDS ALONG NORTH TO SOUTH
ROUTES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. EXTRA CARE SHOULD BE EXERCISED IF YOU
WILL BE OUT AND ABOUT.

OTHER WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL NOT BE AS STOUT AS THE WINDS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BROAD SWATH OF MOISTURE AIMED AT THE SIERRA,
PWATS FROM 1-1.5", FORCING DYNAMICS ARE LARGELY DISPLACED INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STILL, SNOW TOTALS ABOVE 8000 FEET COULD
ACCUMULATE TO A FEW INCHES, GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 INCHES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY VARIABLE COMING IN WARM THEN LOWERING AS
PRECIPITATION DRAGS THEM DOWN. COOLER UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL
BELOW 6500 FEET WAITING UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN, THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED INTO EASTERN NEVADA.

EXPECT COLDER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S FOR
WESTERN NEVADA AND LOWER 40S FOR THE SIERRA ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN TREND WARMER THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 50S FOR WESTERN NEVADA BY MONDAY. THERE COULD
BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES INCLUDING
SURPRISE VALLEY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS SYSTEMS DROP
DOWN THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. BOYD

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ALONG
WITH REDUCED ENSEMBLE UNCERTAINTY. THE EC HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS
SOLUTION OF A WARMER/DRIER PATTERN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. THIS BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES
HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE TO MODERATE THROUGH MIDWEEK. LIGHT WINDS
AND STRENGTHENING VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BUT A MORE GRADUAL TEMPERATURE INCREASE IS
EXPECTED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
BY THANKSGIVING DAY WITH MID 50S TO NEAR 60 EXPECTED ACROSS SIERRA
VALLEYS.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY TIME FRAME AS MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
WEST COAST. THE SYSTEM DOESN`T LOOK TO BE A STRONG ONE BUT MAY
PROVIDE ANOTHER QUICK HIT OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS ALSO HINTING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS TO FOLLOW AS RIDGING BREAKS
DOWN ALONG WEST COAST AND SYSTEMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA.
DETAILS AND CONFIDENCE REMAIN LOW THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST BUT
AT LEAST SOME HOPE OVER THE FREQUENT RIDGING PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. FUENTES

AVIATION...

MAIN AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG WINDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A 140KT JET CROSSES INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MOUNTAIN WAVES AND TURBULENCE WILL INCREASE BEGINNING
THIS EVENING WITH THE BULK OF THE INCREASE EXPECTED BETWEEN 06-18Z
SATURDAY MORNING WHERE GUSTS NEAR 90KTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SIERRA RIDGES. TERMINALS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA MAY SEE GUSTS OF 40-60 KT MAINLY AROUND 06Z-21Z SATURDAY.
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MAY ACCOMPANY THE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN AND
RANGE SATURDAY.

MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION AND BRIEF PERIODS MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS KTRK/KTVL MAINLY AROUND 12Z
WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOWFALL AFTER 00Z SUNDAY BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOR KRNO/KCXP A 20% CHANGE OF RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z SAT - 00Z SUN. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     NVZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     NVZ002-005.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM PST SATURDAY NVZ001.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY NVZ004.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     CAZ070-071.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM PST SATURDAY CAZ073.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 212310
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
310 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW NEAR THE SIERRA CREST AND
NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND DRIER ON
SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES TREND
WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO LARGE VARIATIONS IN MODEL OUTPUTS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED WITH A MODERATELY STRONG SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE SIERRA
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE MAINLY AFTER 10 PM FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT. GUSTS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 55-65 MPH RANGE, BUT ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO
75 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. WIND PRONE AREAS
COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH AS WINDS DUCT TO VALLEY FLOORS IN THE
LEE OF THE SIERRA. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ELSEWHERE
INCLUDING THE TAHOE BASIN AND NEVADA INTERIOR. THE PRIMARY
MECHANICS FORCING THESE WINDS ARE A STRONG 160 MPH JET MOVING
INTO THE REGION WITH 800MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH AND A DECENT
STABLE LAYER DUCTING HIGHER LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE. BLOWING
DUST MAY BECOME A PROBLEM EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 RESULTING IN RAPID
REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY FOR MOTORISTS. ADDITIONALLY, HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO CROSS-WINDS ALONG NORTH TO SOUTH
ROUTES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. EXTRA CARE SHOULD BE EXERCISED IF YOU
WILL BE OUT AND ABOUT.

OTHER WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL NOT BE AS STOUT AS THE WINDS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BROAD SWATH OF MOISTURE AIMED AT THE SIERRA,
PWATS FROM 1-1.5", FORCING DYNAMICS ARE LARGELY DISPLACED INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STILL, SNOW TOTALS ABOVE 8000 FEET COULD
ACCUMULATE TO A FEW INCHES, GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 INCHES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY VARIABLE COMING IN WARM THEN LOWERING AS
PRECIPITATION DRAGS THEM DOWN. COOLER UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL
BELOW 6500 FEET WAITING UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN, THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED INTO EASTERN NEVADA.

EXPECT COLDER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S FOR
WESTERN NEVADA AND LOWER 40S FOR THE SIERRA ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN TREND WARMER THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 50S FOR WESTERN NEVADA BY MONDAY. THERE COULD
BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES INCLUDING
SURPRISE VALLEY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS SYSTEMS DROP
DOWN THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. BOYD

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ALONG
WITH REDUCED ENSEMBLE UNCERTAINTY. THE EC HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS
SOLUTION OF A WARMER/DRIER PATTERN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. THIS BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES
HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE TO MODERATE THROUGH MIDWEEK. LIGHT WINDS
AND STRENGTHENING VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BUT A MORE GRADUAL TEMPERATURE INCREASE IS
EXPECTED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
BY THANKSGIVING DAY WITH MID 50S TO NEAR 60 EXPECTED ACROSS SIERRA
VALLEYS.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY TIME FRAME AS MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
WEST COAST. THE SYSTEM DOESN`T LOOK TO BE A STRONG ONE BUT MAY
PROVIDE ANOTHER QUICK HIT OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS ALSO HINTING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS TO FOLLOW AS RIDGING BREAKS
DOWN ALONG WEST COAST AND SYSTEMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA.
DETAILS AND CONFIDENCE REMAIN LOW THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST BUT
AT LEAST SOME HOPE OVER THE FREQUENT RIDGING PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...

MAIN AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG WINDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A 140KT JET CROSSES INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MOUNTAIN WAVES AND TURBULENCE WILL INCREASE BEGINNING
THIS EVENING WITH THE BULK OF THE INCREASE EXPECTED BETWEEN 06-18Z
SATURDAY MORNING WHERE GUSTS NEAR 90KTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SIERRA RIDGES. TERMINALS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA MAY SEE GUSTS OF 40-60 KT MAINLY AROUND 06Z-21Z SATURDAY.
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MAY ACCOMPANY THE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN AND
RANGE SATURDAY.

MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION AND BRIEF PERIODS MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS KTRK/KTVL MAINLY AROUND 12Z
WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOWFALL AFTER 00Z SUNDAY BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOR KRNO/KCXP A 20% CHANGE OF RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z SAT - 00Z SUN. FUENTES

&&



.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     NVZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     NVZ002-005.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM PST SATURDAY NVZ001.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY NVZ004.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     CAZ070-071.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM PST SATURDAY CAZ073.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 212310
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
310 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW NEAR THE SIERRA CREST AND
NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. CONDITIONS BECOME COOLER AND DRIER ON
SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES TREND
WARMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO LARGE VARIATIONS IN MODEL OUTPUTS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST CONTINUES AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED WITH A MODERATELY STRONG SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE SIERRA
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE MAINLY AFTER 10 PM FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT. GUSTS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 55-65 MPH RANGE, BUT ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO
75 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. WIND PRONE AREAS
COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 80 MPH AS WINDS DUCT TO VALLEY FLOORS IN THE
LEE OF THE SIERRA. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ELSEWHERE
INCLUDING THE TAHOE BASIN AND NEVADA INTERIOR. THE PRIMARY
MECHANICS FORCING THESE WINDS ARE A STRONG 160 MPH JET MOVING
INTO THE REGION WITH 800MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH AND A DECENT
STABLE LAYER DUCTING HIGHER LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE. BLOWING
DUST MAY BECOME A PROBLEM EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 RESULTING IN RAPID
REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY FOR MOTORISTS. ADDITIONALLY, HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO CROSS-WINDS ALONG NORTH TO SOUTH
ROUTES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. EXTRA CARE SHOULD BE EXERCISED IF YOU
WILL BE OUT AND ABOUT.

OTHER WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL NOT BE AS STOUT AS THE WINDS.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BROAD SWATH OF MOISTURE AIMED AT THE SIERRA,
PWATS FROM 1-1.5", FORCING DYNAMICS ARE LARGELY DISPLACED INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STILL, SNOW TOTALS ABOVE 8000 FEET COULD
ACCUMULATE TO A FEW INCHES, GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 INCHES. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY VARIABLE COMING IN WARM THEN LOWERING AS
PRECIPITATION DRAGS THEM DOWN. COOLER UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL
BELOW 6500 FEET WAITING UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY THEN, THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED INTO EASTERN NEVADA.

EXPECT COLDER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S FOR
WESTERN NEVADA AND LOWER 40S FOR THE SIERRA ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN TREND WARMER THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 50S FOR WESTERN NEVADA BY MONDAY. THERE COULD
BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES INCLUDING
SURPRISE VALLEY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS SYSTEMS DROP
DOWN THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. BOYD

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ALONG
WITH REDUCED ENSEMBLE UNCERTAINTY. THE EC HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS
SOLUTION OF A WARMER/DRIER PATTERN WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. THIS BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES
HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE TO MODERATE THROUGH MIDWEEK. LIGHT WINDS
AND STRENGTHENING VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BUT A MORE GRADUAL TEMPERATURE INCREASE IS
EXPECTED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
BY THANKSGIVING DAY WITH MID 50S TO NEAR 60 EXPECTED ACROSS SIERRA
VALLEYS.

THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY TIME FRAME AS MODELS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
WEST COAST. THE SYSTEM DOESN`T LOOK TO BE A STRONG ONE BUT MAY
PROVIDE ANOTHER QUICK HIT OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS ALSO HINTING AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS TO FOLLOW AS RIDGING BREAKS
DOWN ALONG WEST COAST AND SYSTEMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA.
DETAILS AND CONFIDENCE REMAIN LOW THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST BUT
AT LEAST SOME HOPE OVER THE FREQUENT RIDGING PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...

MAIN AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG WINDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A 140KT JET CROSSES INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MOUNTAIN WAVES AND TURBULENCE WILL INCREASE BEGINNING
THIS EVENING WITH THE BULK OF THE INCREASE EXPECTED BETWEEN 06-18Z
SATURDAY MORNING WHERE GUSTS NEAR 90KTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SIERRA RIDGES. TERMINALS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA MAY SEE GUSTS OF 40-60 KT MAINLY AROUND 06Z-21Z SATURDAY.
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST MAY ACCOMPANY THE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN AND
RANGE SATURDAY.

MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION AND BRIEF PERIODS MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS KTRK/KTVL MAINLY AROUND 12Z
WITH A CHANGE OVER TO SNOWFALL AFTER 00Z SUNDAY BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FOR KRNO/KCXP A 20% CHANGE OF RAIN
SHOWERS EXPECTED MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z SAT - 00Z SUN. FUENTES

&&



.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     NVZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     NVZ002-005.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM PST SATURDAY NVZ001.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY NVZ004.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     CAZ070-071.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM PST SATURDAY CAZ073.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 211107
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
307 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY, WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW MAINLY NEAR
THE SIERRA CREST, AND NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LIGHT RAIN YESTERDAY EVENING COMBINED WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF
CLEARING HAS LED TO FORMATION OF FOG AROUND TRUCKEE, PORTIONS OF
THE TAHOE BASIN AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY. AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE
TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM, THIS FOG SHOULD DISPERSE BY
MID MORNING.

THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS STORM WILL BE STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IN THE TAHOE BASIN AND ALONG THE SIERRA
FRONT OF WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA. THE HIGH WIND
WATCHES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH 700 MB FLOW STILL EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 55-65 KT, AND A DOWNSLOPE SIGNATURE INDICATED ON THE
NAM MODEL SOUNDING FOR RENO ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 09-15Z. IN THE
WATCH AREAS, WE WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH,
EXCEPT UP TO 75 MPH IN WIND PRONE AREAS AND 100 MPH FOR SIERRA
RIDGES. EVEN AFTER THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WEAKENS WITH THE
DAYTIME COLD FRONT PASSAGE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
TIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50, SOME GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR HIGHER MAY CONTINUE INTO PART
OF THE EVENING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NV AND EASTERN MONO COUNTY ON SATURDAY, SINCE
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NV COULD BRIEFLY WARM
UP TO NEAR 60 DEGREES AROUND MIDDAY NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR, WITH
MID 60S POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE WEST CENTRAL BASIN AND
MINERAL COUNTY. HOWEVER, THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLDER
AIR MASS SPREADS SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY.

PRECIPITATION IS STILL LIKELY TO BE SPARSE ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION AS 130+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS REMAINS ORIENTED FROM
NORTHERN CA TO EXTREME NORTHWEST NV. AREAS SOUTH OF THIS AXIS WILL
BE ON THE UNFAVORABLE REGION FOR UPPER LEVEL FORCING, ALTHOUGH
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE SIERRA WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE CREST. LOCAL
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 8000 FEET.

FOR THE TAHOE BASIN, THERE WAS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH SNOW LEVELS
DUE TO A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER ALOFT, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT SNOW LEVELS IN THE SIERRA WILL RISE RAPIDLY TO
ABOVE 8000 FEET FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS EVENT. BY THE TIME COLDER
AIR WORKS DOWN TO LAKE LEVEL SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MOST OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE OVER.

ONE OTHER AREA THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NEAR THE OREGON BORDER, WHICH WILL BE UNDER THE MORE FAVORABLE
REGION FOR UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS, AND ALSO IN THE COLD SECTOR
SOONER. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES QPF AROUND 0.25 INCH
FROM CEDARVILLE NORTHWARD, WITH LOCALLY UP TO 0.50 INCH POSSIBLE.
WHILE THE DAYTIME OCCURRENCE OF THIS RAIN AND SNOW WILL LIMIT
ACCUMULATION ON ROADS IN THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
NV, A FEW INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR ON UNPAVED SURFACES AND AFFECT
HIGHER ELEVATION ROADS SUCH AS CEDAR PASS.

ON SUNDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL LEAD
TO COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS. UNLIKE RECENT SHALLOW COLD FRONT PASSAGES, INVERSIONS
ARE LIKELY TO BE WEAKER SO HIGHS IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE WESTERN NV VALLEYS. MJD

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED STRONGLY TOWARD THE GFS AND NOW IT APPEARS
THAT ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS WILL RULE WITH NAEFS HEIGHTS PEAKING
AROUND TUE-WED. LIGHT WINDS AND INVERSIONS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
WARMING GREATLY, BUT HIGHS COULD START APPROACHING 60 DEGREES FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS BY THANKSGIVING DAY, AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND ALLOWS SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BETTER
MIXING. UPPER ELEVATIONS WILL WARM THE MOST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE SIERRA VALLEYS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS
TUE-WED, WHEN HIGHS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES AROUND TRUCKEE.

WHILE CERTAINTY IN THE RIDGE AND DRIER WEATHER IS HIGHER THIS
MORNING, THAT CERTAINTY DECREASES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME
MODELS WANT TO BRING A WEAK SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA FRI-SAT,
BUT OTHERS ARE DRY. IN EITHER CASE, THERE ARE NO BIG STORMS
SHOWING UP THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THE MAIN CHANGE THIS MORNING
WAS THE REMOVAL OF A MENTION OF WEATHER WEDNESDAY. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM
TODAY.

BIGGEST IMPACTS TO AVIATION LOOK TO BE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A
130 KT JET PUSHES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH CONFIDENCE
EXISTS FOR A MODERATE TO STRONG WIND EVENT ACROSS AND EAST OF THE
SIERRA WHERE A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT. MOUNTAIN WAVES AND
TURBULENCE WILL START AFTER 00Z SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
OF 40-60 KT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS 06Z-21Z SATURDAY. AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST MAY ACCOMPANY THE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE
SATURDAY. THE SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE SIERRA WHICH COULD LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KTVL-
KTRK. FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     NVZ002-003.

CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     CAZ071>073.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)











000
FXUS65 KREV 211107
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
307 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY, WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW MAINLY NEAR
THE SIERRA CREST, AND NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LIGHT RAIN YESTERDAY EVENING COMBINED WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF
CLEARING HAS LED TO FORMATION OF FOG AROUND TRUCKEE, PORTIONS OF
THE TAHOE BASIN AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY. AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE
TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM, THIS FOG SHOULD DISPERSE BY
MID MORNING.

THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS STORM WILL BE STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IN THE TAHOE BASIN AND ALONG THE SIERRA
FRONT OF WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA. THE HIGH WIND
WATCHES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH 700 MB FLOW STILL EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 55-65 KT, AND A DOWNSLOPE SIGNATURE INDICATED ON THE
NAM MODEL SOUNDING FOR RENO ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 09-15Z. IN THE
WATCH AREAS, WE WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH,
EXCEPT UP TO 75 MPH IN WIND PRONE AREAS AND 100 MPH FOR SIERRA
RIDGES. EVEN AFTER THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WEAKENS WITH THE
DAYTIME COLD FRONT PASSAGE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
TIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50, SOME GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR HIGHER MAY CONTINUE INTO PART
OF THE EVENING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NV AND EASTERN MONO COUNTY ON SATURDAY, SINCE
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NV COULD BRIEFLY WARM
UP TO NEAR 60 DEGREES AROUND MIDDAY NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR, WITH
MID 60S POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE WEST CENTRAL BASIN AND
MINERAL COUNTY. HOWEVER, THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLDER
AIR MASS SPREADS SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY.

PRECIPITATION IS STILL LIKELY TO BE SPARSE ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION AS 130+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS REMAINS ORIENTED FROM
NORTHERN CA TO EXTREME NORTHWEST NV. AREAS SOUTH OF THIS AXIS WILL
BE ON THE UNFAVORABLE REGION FOR UPPER LEVEL FORCING, ALTHOUGH
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE SIERRA WILL BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE CREST. LOCAL
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 8000 FEET.

FOR THE TAHOE BASIN, THERE WAS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH SNOW LEVELS
DUE TO A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER ALOFT, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT SNOW LEVELS IN THE SIERRA WILL RISE RAPIDLY TO
ABOVE 8000 FEET FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS EVENT. BY THE TIME COLDER
AIR WORKS DOWN TO LAKE LEVEL SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MOST OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE OVER.

ONE OTHER AREA THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NEAR THE OREGON BORDER, WHICH WILL BE UNDER THE MORE FAVORABLE
REGION FOR UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS, AND ALSO IN THE COLD SECTOR
SOONER. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES QPF AROUND 0.25 INCH
FROM CEDARVILLE NORTHWARD, WITH LOCALLY UP TO 0.50 INCH POSSIBLE.
WHILE THE DAYTIME OCCURRENCE OF THIS RAIN AND SNOW WILL LIMIT
ACCUMULATION ON ROADS IN THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
NV, A FEW INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR ON UNPAVED SURFACES AND AFFECT
HIGHER ELEVATION ROADS SUCH AS CEDAR PASS.

ON SUNDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL LEAD
TO COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS. UNLIKE RECENT SHALLOW COLD FRONT PASSAGES, INVERSIONS
ARE LIKELY TO BE WEAKER SO HIGHS IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE WESTERN NV VALLEYS. MJD

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED STRONGLY TOWARD THE GFS AND NOW IT APPEARS
THAT ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS WILL RULE WITH NAEFS HEIGHTS PEAKING
AROUND TUE-WED. LIGHT WINDS AND INVERSIONS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
WARMING GREATLY, BUT HIGHS COULD START APPROACHING 60 DEGREES FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS BY THANKSGIVING DAY, AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND ALLOWS SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BETTER
MIXING. UPPER ELEVATIONS WILL WARM THE MOST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE SIERRA VALLEYS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS
TUE-WED, WHEN HIGHS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES AROUND TRUCKEE.

WHILE CERTAINTY IN THE RIDGE AND DRIER WEATHER IS HIGHER THIS
MORNING, THAT CERTAINTY DECREASES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME
MODELS WANT TO BRING A WEAK SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA FRI-SAT,
BUT OTHERS ARE DRY. IN EITHER CASE, THERE ARE NO BIG STORMS
SHOWING UP THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THE MAIN CHANGE THIS MORNING
WAS THE REMOVAL OF A MENTION OF WEATHER WEDNESDAY. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS WILL BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM
TODAY.

BIGGEST IMPACTS TO AVIATION LOOK TO BE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A
130 KT JET PUSHES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH CONFIDENCE
EXISTS FOR A MODERATE TO STRONG WIND EVENT ACROSS AND EAST OF THE
SIERRA WHERE A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT. MOUNTAIN WAVES AND
TURBULENCE WILL START AFTER 00Z SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
OF 40-60 KT IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS 06Z-21Z SATURDAY. AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST MAY ACCOMPANY THE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE
SATURDAY. THE SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND
SNOW TO THE SIERRA WHICH COULD LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KTVL-
KTRK. FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     NVZ002-003.

CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     CAZ071>073.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)












000
FXUS65 KREV 202332
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
332 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A QUICK ROUND OF SNOW AND RAIN TO THE SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
STRONGER WINDS SATURDAY, WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA CREST AND IN EXTREME NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. A DRYING TREND RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE
REBUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY`S SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IT HAS COME IN A LITTLE WARMER THAN PROJECTED WITH
SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR TONIGHT. STILL, A
QUICK INCH OR SO OF SNOW DOWN TO 6000 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT AS THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW MOVES OVER THE SIERRA
IN CONJUNCTION WITH PRECIPITATION LOADING. FORTUNATELY, ROAD
SURFACES WILL MOSTLY BE TOO WARM AROUND THE TRUCKEE AND TAHOE
AREAS FOR WIDESPREAD ICY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, COOLER ROAD SURFACES
THAT HAVE REMAINED SHADOWED THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERPASSES COULD
BECOME SLICK AS TEMPERATURES DROP OVERNIGHT. EXTRA CARE SHOULD BE
TAKEN IF YOU HAVE PLANS TO BE OUT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING IN THE SIERRA.

OTHERWISE, THE FOCUS FOR WEATHER IMPACTS IS SHIFTING TO SATURDAY`S
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SIERRA AND,
ESPECIALLY, ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT WHERE WINDS WILL DUCT TO VALLEY
SURFACES. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CRITICAL LAYER
WITH 50 KNOTS DOWN TO 800MB AND NEARLY 60 KNOTS AT 700MB. THIS
CORRELATES TO PAST DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENTS AND SUPPORTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. EVEN WITHOUT THE STABLE LAYER
DUCTING WINDS DOWNSLOPE, WINDS WILL BE GUSTY CONSIDERING THAT WE
SHOULD MIX HIGHER THAN 800MB. THEREFORE, WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR THE SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT FROM LATE FRIDAY
EVENING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IN THE SIERRA WILL
LIKELY DAMPEN THE WIND GUSTS DOWN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA, BUT WILL
KEEP TAHOE IN THE WATCH SINCE 700MB WINDS ARE STRONG. ALSO, ADDED
SOME BLOWING DUST INTO THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE
VIRGINIA RANGE. THIS INCLUDES AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE SMOKE CREEK
DESERT AND THE GREAT BASIN FROM JUST EAST OF PYRAMID LAKE TO
MINERAL COUNTY.

PRECIPITATION IS SOMEWHAT LACKING WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
SYSTEM. PWATS ARE AMPLE IN THE 1" TO 1.5" RANGE, BUT FORCING IS
SEVERELY DISPLACED INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHAT PRECIPITATION
DOES SQUEEZE OUT WILL BE DUE TO A PASSING WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH, SOME OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPING, AND SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.
THESE MECHANICS DO NOT FAVOR LARGE PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR SHORT
DURATIONS LIKE THE TIMESCALE OF THIS SYSTEM. STILL, A FEW INCHES
OF HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FEET
WITH UP TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE CREST ITSELF. MODELS ARE HANDLING
SNOW LEVELS VERY POORLY AND THE VARIABILITY IS QUITE LARGE; SOME
DOWN TO 5000 FEET WITH OTHERS AROUND 10000 FEET. HOPEFULLY, THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CONSENSUS IN FOLLOWING RUNS SO THAT WE CAN NAIL
DOWN TOTALS MORE FIRMLY. ELSEWHERE, PRECIPITATION WILL BE MUCH
MORE ANEMIC DUE TO A PRONOUNCED RAIN SHADOW WITH MAINLY TOKEN
AMOUNTS EAST OF HIGHWAY 395. BOYD

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW
TO MID 50S FORECASTED AREA WIDE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD IN
ESTABLISHING THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST INTO TUESDAY BUT
RAPIDLY DETERIORATES BY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE GAUGING ANY TRAVEL
IMPACTS NEAR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS SOME MODELS HAVE SHOWN A
POTENTIAL FOR A COLD FRONT TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA DURING THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAME. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WARM/DRY PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE THE EC
HAS BEEN COOLER/WETTER AS IT BRINGS IN THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE
LAST THREE RUNS OF THE EC HAVE TRENDED DRIER AND MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIP SCRAPING FAR EASTERN PERSHING
AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY DRIER BUT
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND CONFIDENCE IN
MODELS MAINTAINING THIS DRY SOLUTION IS LOW MAINLY DUE TO THE VERY
HIGH SPREADS SHOWN IN BOTH THE NAEFS AND EC. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS
AROUND THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST WHICH WILL BE REFINED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS KTRK/KTVL/KMMH AFTER 00Z AS
SNOW LEVELS DROP AROUND 6,000 FT MSL. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR KTRK/KTVL WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL THRU 04Z
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING AFTER 04Z AND ENDING AROUND 08Z. UP TO AN
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE AT KTRK/KTVL. MOUNTAIN TOP
OBSCURATION IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR SIERRA RIDGES WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KMMH THROUGH AROUND 06Z. ONLY BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS KRNO/KCXP.

BIGGEST IMPACTS TO AVIATION LOOK TO BE AFTER 00Z SATURDAY, WHEN
THE JET PUSHES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS
FOR A MODERATE TO STRONG WIND EVENT ACROSS AND EAST OF THE SIERRA
AND A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. MOUNTAIN WAVES AND
TURBULENCE WILL START AFTER 00Z SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
OF 40-60 KTS GUSTS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS 06Z-21Z SATURDAY. THE
SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
SIERRA WHICH COULD LEAD TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KTVL-KTRK.
FUENTES/BRONG

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     NVZ002-003.

CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     CAZ071>073.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 202332
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
332 PM PST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A QUICK ROUND OF SNOW AND RAIN TO THE SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
STRONGER WINDS SATURDAY, WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA CREST AND IN EXTREME NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. A DRYING TREND RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE
REBUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY`S SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IT HAS COME IN A LITTLE WARMER THAN PROJECTED WITH
SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR TONIGHT. STILL, A
QUICK INCH OR SO OF SNOW DOWN TO 6000 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT AS THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW MOVES OVER THE SIERRA
IN CONJUNCTION WITH PRECIPITATION LOADING. FORTUNATELY, ROAD
SURFACES WILL MOSTLY BE TOO WARM AROUND THE TRUCKEE AND TAHOE
AREAS FOR WIDESPREAD ICY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, COOLER ROAD SURFACES
THAT HAVE REMAINED SHADOWED THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERPASSES COULD
BECOME SLICK AS TEMPERATURES DROP OVERNIGHT. EXTRA CARE SHOULD BE
TAKEN IF YOU HAVE PLANS TO BE OUT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING IN THE SIERRA.

OTHERWISE, THE FOCUS FOR WEATHER IMPACTS IS SHIFTING TO SATURDAY`S
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SIERRA AND,
ESPECIALLY, ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT WHERE WINDS WILL DUCT TO VALLEY
SURFACES. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CRITICAL LAYER
WITH 50 KNOTS DOWN TO 800MB AND NEARLY 60 KNOTS AT 700MB. THIS
CORRELATES TO PAST DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENTS AND SUPPORTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. EVEN WITHOUT THE STABLE LAYER
DUCTING WINDS DOWNSLOPE, WINDS WILL BE GUSTY CONSIDERING THAT WE
SHOULD MIX HIGHER THAN 800MB. THEREFORE, WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR THE SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT FROM LATE FRIDAY
EVENING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IN THE SIERRA WILL
LIKELY DAMPEN THE WIND GUSTS DOWN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA, BUT WILL
KEEP TAHOE IN THE WATCH SINCE 700MB WINDS ARE STRONG. ALSO, ADDED
SOME BLOWING DUST INTO THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE
VIRGINIA RANGE. THIS INCLUDES AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE SMOKE CREEK
DESERT AND THE GREAT BASIN FROM JUST EAST OF PYRAMID LAKE TO
MINERAL COUNTY.

PRECIPITATION IS SOMEWHAT LACKING WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
SYSTEM. PWATS ARE AMPLE IN THE 1" TO 1.5" RANGE, BUT FORCING IS
SEVERELY DISPLACED INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHAT PRECIPITATION
DOES SQUEEZE OUT WILL BE DUE TO A PASSING WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH, SOME OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPING, AND SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.
THESE MECHANICS DO NOT FAVOR LARGE PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR SHORT
DURATIONS LIKE THE TIMESCALE OF THIS SYSTEM. STILL, A FEW INCHES
OF HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FEET
WITH UP TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE CREST ITSELF. MODELS ARE HANDLING
SNOW LEVELS VERY POORLY AND THE VARIABILITY IS QUITE LARGE; SOME
DOWN TO 5000 FEET WITH OTHERS AROUND 10000 FEET. HOPEFULLY, THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CONSENSUS IN FOLLOWING RUNS SO THAT WE CAN NAIL
DOWN TOTALS MORE FIRMLY. ELSEWHERE, PRECIPITATION WILL BE MUCH
MORE ANEMIC DUE TO A PRONOUNCED RAIN SHADOW WITH MAINLY TOKEN
AMOUNTS EAST OF HIGHWAY 395. BOYD

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW
TO MID 50S FORECASTED AREA WIDE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE
SLOWLY BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD IN
ESTABLISHING THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST INTO TUESDAY BUT
RAPIDLY DETERIORATES BY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE GAUGING ANY TRAVEL
IMPACTS NEAR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS SOME MODELS HAVE SHOWN A
POTENTIAL FOR A COLD FRONT TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA DURING THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAME. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WARM/DRY PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE THE EC
HAS BEEN COOLER/WETTER AS IT BRINGS IN THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE
LAST THREE RUNS OF THE EC HAVE TRENDED DRIER AND MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIP SCRAPING FAR EASTERN PERSHING
AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY DRIER BUT
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND CONFIDENCE IN
MODELS MAINTAINING THIS DRY SOLUTION IS LOW MAINLY DUE TO THE VERY
HIGH SPREADS SHOWN IN BOTH THE NAEFS AND EC. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS
AROUND THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST WHICH WILL BE REFINED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS KTRK/KTVL/KMMH AFTER 00Z AS
SNOW LEVELS DROP AROUND 6,000 FT MSL. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR KTRK/KTVL WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL THRU 04Z
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING AFTER 04Z AND ENDING AROUND 08Z. UP TO AN
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE AT KTRK/KTVL. MOUNTAIN TOP
OBSCURATION IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR SIERRA RIDGES WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KMMH THROUGH AROUND 06Z. ONLY BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS KRNO/KCXP.

BIGGEST IMPACTS TO AVIATION LOOK TO BE AFTER 00Z SATURDAY, WHEN
THE JET PUSHES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS
FOR A MODERATE TO STRONG WIND EVENT ACROSS AND EAST OF THE SIERRA
AND A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. MOUNTAIN WAVES AND
TURBULENCE WILL START AFTER 00Z SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
OF 40-60 KTS GUSTS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS 06Z-21Z SATURDAY. THE
SATURDAY SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
SIERRA WHICH COULD LEAD TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KTVL-KTRK.
FUENTES/BRONG

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     NVZ002-003.

CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     CAZ071>073.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









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