Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS65 KREV 310052 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
452 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES AND ON LAKE TAHOE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO NOSE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
FROM THE PACIFIC. AN INCREASING UPPER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND TROUGH, ALONG WITH AN INCREASING SURFACE GRADIENT (WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE BASIN), WILL ENHANCE THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP RIDGE WINDS ELEVATED INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE IMMEDIATE SIERRA
CREST. ALSO, AS THE SURFACE HIGH INTENSIFIES THE SURFACE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE SIERRA SOME OF THIS WIND IS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN ONTO
LAKE TAHOE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH MODELS SHOWING AN INVERSION
SMASHING DOWN TO BELOW THE PEAKS OF THE CARSON RANGE I WOULD EXPECT
THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE LAKE TO BE WEST OF SPOONER SUMMIT WHERE
WINDS CAN SQUEEZE THROUGH THE GAP IN THE RANGE. ELSEWHERE ON LAKE
TAHOE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT TAMER.

FOR THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE SIERRA, NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. WITH NO INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD/ABOVE AVERAGE DESPITE INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY, A PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO FAR NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHERN NEVADA. AT THIS TIME, I HAVE LEFT THE
SHOWERS AT A SLIGHT CHANCE. HOWEVER, POP MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED
SOME NORTH OF A PORTOLA TO GERLACH LINE ON MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT BASED
ON THE 18Z GFS/NAM AND THE 15Z SREF WHICH SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO SQUEEZE OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
FARTHER SOUTH, IT STILL JUST LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF MID AND/OR HIGH
CLOUDS. THIS COULD WIND UP TEMPERING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM OUR
CURRENT FORECAST. STILL, THE SURFACE HIGH IS WEAK AND THERE IS SOME
MODERATE 700 MB FLOW WHICH COULD SERVE TO MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
SO I HAVE NOT LOWERED HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH THIS FORECAST. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT, THE GFS MODEL ENSEMBLE SYSTEM HAS
CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT SOUTH WITH THE STORM TRACK AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF MODEL, ON
THE OTHER HAND, HAS BEEN CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN WITH KEEPING THE
STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WE
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHEAST CA AND
FAR NORTHWEST NV FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 7000 FEET.

FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM IT WILL GET. INVERSIONS SHOULD BE
WEAK SO UNLESS A THICK OVERCAST PREVAILS ALL DAY, HIGHS EACH DAY
SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE 60 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH MID-UPPER
50S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO REACH THE WEST
COAST BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE NORTH-SOUTH LOCATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AS IT REACHES THE WEST COAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN (IT
IS A 7-DAY FORECAST). FURTHERMORE, A VERY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES IS LIKELY TO INTERACT AND STEER THIS
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION COULD
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS PLUMAS-LASSEN-MODOC COUNTIES FRIDAY WITH
LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA STAYING MOSTLY DRY.
AT THIS TIME, THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY SUBTROPICAL, SO
EVEN IF PRECIP DOES REACH THE SIERRA IT WOULD MORE LIKELY BE RAIN
WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ON THE HIGH SIDE. JCM/MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. AHEAD OF THE RIDGE, WINDS
ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS AN EASTERLY JET DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
SIERRA. AREAS OF TURBULENCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
SIERRA RIDGES WITH GUSTS NEAR 65 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT RIDGE LEVEL
(~10,000 FT). RIDGE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 03-18Z SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW, LESS THAN 15 KTS
IS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS SIERRA TERMINALS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AT KRNO AND KCXP.

CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS INTO
SATURDAY AS A LARGE SWATH OF DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR FOG FORMATION AT KTRK
MAINLY IF WINDS CAN KEEP MARTIS VALLEY MIXED OVERNIGHT. MAY STILL
EXPERIENCE PATCHY AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH CLEARING SKIES IN
AREAS OF LIGHT WINDS. FUENTES

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)











000
FXUS65 KREV 310052 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
452 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES AND ON LAKE TAHOE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO NOSE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
FROM THE PACIFIC. AN INCREASING UPPER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND TROUGH, ALONG WITH AN INCREASING SURFACE GRADIENT (WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE BASIN), WILL ENHANCE THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP RIDGE WINDS ELEVATED INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE IMMEDIATE SIERRA
CREST. ALSO, AS THE SURFACE HIGH INTENSIFIES THE SURFACE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE SIERRA SOME OF THIS WIND IS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN ONTO
LAKE TAHOE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH MODELS SHOWING AN INVERSION
SMASHING DOWN TO BELOW THE PEAKS OF THE CARSON RANGE I WOULD EXPECT
THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE LAKE TO BE WEST OF SPOONER SUMMIT WHERE
WINDS CAN SQUEEZE THROUGH THE GAP IN THE RANGE. ELSEWHERE ON LAKE
TAHOE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT TAMER.

FOR THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE SIERRA, NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. WITH NO INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD/ABOVE AVERAGE DESPITE INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY, A PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO FAR NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHERN NEVADA. AT THIS TIME, I HAVE LEFT THE
SHOWERS AT A SLIGHT CHANCE. HOWEVER, POP MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED
SOME NORTH OF A PORTOLA TO GERLACH LINE ON MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT BASED
ON THE 18Z GFS/NAM AND THE 15Z SREF WHICH SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO SQUEEZE OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
FARTHER SOUTH, IT STILL JUST LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF MID AND/OR HIGH
CLOUDS. THIS COULD WIND UP TEMPERING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM OUR
CURRENT FORECAST. STILL, THE SURFACE HIGH IS WEAK AND THERE IS SOME
MODERATE 700 MB FLOW WHICH COULD SERVE TO MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
SO I HAVE NOT LOWERED HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH THIS FORECAST. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT, THE GFS MODEL ENSEMBLE SYSTEM HAS
CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT SOUTH WITH THE STORM TRACK AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF MODEL, ON
THE OTHER HAND, HAS BEEN CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN WITH KEEPING THE
STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WE
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHEAST CA AND
FAR NORTHWEST NV FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 7000 FEET.

FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM IT WILL GET. INVERSIONS SHOULD BE
WEAK SO UNLESS A THICK OVERCAST PREVAILS ALL DAY, HIGHS EACH DAY
SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE 60 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH MID-UPPER
50S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO REACH THE WEST
COAST BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE NORTH-SOUTH LOCATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AS IT REACHES THE WEST COAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN (IT
IS A 7-DAY FORECAST). FURTHERMORE, A VERY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES IS LIKELY TO INTERACT AND STEER THIS
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION COULD
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS PLUMAS-LASSEN-MODOC COUNTIES FRIDAY WITH
LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA STAYING MOSTLY DRY.
AT THIS TIME, THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY SUBTROPICAL, SO
EVEN IF PRECIP DOES REACH THE SIERRA IT WOULD MORE LIKELY BE RAIN
WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ON THE HIGH SIDE. JCM/MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. AHEAD OF THE RIDGE, WINDS
ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS AN EASTERLY JET DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
SIERRA. AREAS OF TURBULENCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
SIERRA RIDGES WITH GUSTS NEAR 65 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT RIDGE LEVEL
(~10,000 FT). RIDGE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 03-18Z SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW, LESS THAN 15 KTS
IS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS SIERRA TERMINALS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AT KRNO AND KCXP.

CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS INTO
SATURDAY AS A LARGE SWATH OF DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR FOG FORMATION AT KTRK
MAINLY IF WINDS CAN KEEP MARTIS VALLEY MIXED OVERNIGHT. MAY STILL
EXPERIENCE PATCHY AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH CLEARING SKIES IN
AREAS OF LIGHT WINDS. FUENTES

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 302307
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
307 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES AND ON LAKE TAHOE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO NOSE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
FROM THE PACIFIC. AN INCREASING UPPER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND TROUGH, ALONG WITH AN INCREASING SURFACE GRADIENT (WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE BASIN), WILL ENHANCE THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP RIDGE WINDS ELEVATED INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE IMMEDIATE SIERRA
CREST. ALSO, AS THE SURFACE HIGH INTENSIFIES THE SURFACE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE SIERRA SOME OF THIS WIND IS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN ONTO
LAKE TAHOE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH MODELS SHOWING AN INVERSION
SMASHING DOWN TO BELOW THE PEAKS OF THE CARSON RANGE I WOULD EXPECT
THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE LAKE TO BE WEST OF SPOONER SUMMIT WHERE
WINDS CAN SQUEEZE THROUGH THE GAP IN THE RANGE. ELSEWHERE ON LAKE
TAHOE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT TAMER.

FOR THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE SIERRA, NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. WITH NO INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD/ABOVE AVERAGE DESPITE INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY, A PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO FAR NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHERN NEVADA. AT THIS TIME, I HAVE LEFT THE
SHOWERS AT A SLIGHT CHANCE. HOWEVER, POP MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED
SOME NORTH OF A PORTOLA TO GERLACH LINE ON MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT BASED
ON THE 18Z GFS/NAM AND THE 15Z SREF WHICH SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO SQUEEZE OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
FARTHER SOUTH, IT STILL JUST LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF MID AND/OR HIGH
CLOUDS. THIS COULD WIND UP TEMPERING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM OUR
CURRENT FORECAST. STILL, THE SURFACE HIGH IS WEAK AND THERE IS SOME
MODERATE 700 MB FLOW WHICH COULD SERVE TO MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
SO I HAVE NOT LOWERED HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH THIS FORECAST. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT, THE GFS MODEL ENSEMBLE SYSTEM HAS
CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT SOUTH WITH THE STORM TRACK AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF MODEL, ON
THE OTHER HAND, HAS BEEN CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN WITH KEEPING THE
STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WE
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHEAST CA AND
FAR NORTHWEST NV FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 7000 FEET.

FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM IT WILL GET. INVERSIONS SHOULD BE
WEAK SO UNLESS A THICK OVERCAST PREVAILS ALL DAY, HIGHS EACH DAY
SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE 60 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH MID-UPPER
50S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO REACH THE WEST
COAST BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE NORTH-SOUTH LOCATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AS IT REACHES THE WEST COAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN (IT
IS A 7-DAY FORECAST). FURTHERMORE, A VERY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES IS LIKELY TO INTERACT AND STEER THIS
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION COULD
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS PLUMAS-LASSEN-MODOC COUNTIES FRIDAY WITH
LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH IN THE LEE OF OF THE SIERRA STAYING MOSTLY
DRY. AT THIS TIME, THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY SUBTROPICAL,
SO EVEN IF PRECIP DOES REACH THE SIERRA IT WOULD MORE LIKELY BE RAIN
WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ON THE HIGH SIDE. JCM/MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. AHEAD OF THE RIDGE, WINDS
ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS AN EASTERLY JET DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
SIERRA. AREAS OF TURBULENCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
SIERRA RIDGES WITH GUSTS NEAR 65 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT RIDGE LEVEL
(~10,000 FT). RIDGE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 03-18Z SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW, LESS THAN 15 KTS
IS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS SIERRA TERMINALS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AT KRNO AND KCXP.

CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS INTO
SATURDAY AS A LARGE SWATH OF DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR FOG FORMATION AT KTRK
MAINLY IF WINDS CAN KEEP MARTIS VALLEY MIXED OVERNIGHT. MAY STILL
EXPERIENCE PATCHY AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH CLEARING SKIES IN
AREAS OF LIGHT WINDS. FUENTES

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 302307
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
307 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES AND ON LAKE TAHOE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING MAINLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO NOSE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
FROM THE PACIFIC. AN INCREASING UPPER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND TROUGH, ALONG WITH AN INCREASING SURFACE GRADIENT (WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE BASIN), WILL ENHANCE THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP RIDGE WINDS ELEVATED INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE IMMEDIATE SIERRA
CREST. ALSO, AS THE SURFACE HIGH INTENSIFIES THE SURFACE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE SIERRA SOME OF THIS WIND IS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN ONTO
LAKE TAHOE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH MODELS SHOWING AN INVERSION
SMASHING DOWN TO BELOW THE PEAKS OF THE CARSON RANGE I WOULD EXPECT
THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE LAKE TO BE WEST OF SPOONER SUMMIT WHERE
WINDS CAN SQUEEZE THROUGH THE GAP IN THE RANGE. ELSEWHERE ON LAKE
TAHOE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT TAMER.

FOR THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE SIERRA, NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. WITH NO INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD/ABOVE AVERAGE DESPITE INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY, A PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO FAR NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHERN NEVADA. AT THIS TIME, I HAVE LEFT THE
SHOWERS AT A SLIGHT CHANCE. HOWEVER, POP MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED
SOME NORTH OF A PORTOLA TO GERLACH LINE ON MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT BASED
ON THE 18Z GFS/NAM AND THE 15Z SREF WHICH SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO SQUEEZE OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
FARTHER SOUTH, IT STILL JUST LOOKS LIKE A LOT OF MID AND/OR HIGH
CLOUDS. THIS COULD WIND UP TEMPERING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM OUR
CURRENT FORECAST. STILL, THE SURFACE HIGH IS WEAK AND THERE IS SOME
MODERATE 700 MB FLOW WHICH COULD SERVE TO MIX THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
SO I HAVE NOT LOWERED HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH THIS FORECAST. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT, THE GFS MODEL ENSEMBLE SYSTEM HAS
CONTINUED TO TREND A BIT SOUTH WITH THE STORM TRACK AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF MODEL, ON
THE OTHER HAND, HAS BEEN CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN WITH KEEPING THE
STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WE
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHEAST CA AND
FAR NORTHWEST NV FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 7000 FEET.

FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM IT WILL GET. INVERSIONS SHOULD BE
WEAK SO UNLESS A THICK OVERCAST PREVAILS ALL DAY, HIGHS EACH DAY
SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE 60 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH MID-UPPER
50S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO REACH THE WEST
COAST BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE NORTH-SOUTH LOCATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AS IT REACHES THE WEST COAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN (IT
IS A 7-DAY FORECAST). FURTHERMORE, A VERY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES IS LIKELY TO INTERACT AND STEER THIS
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. THE
CURRENT CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION COULD
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS PLUMAS-LASSEN-MODOC COUNTIES FRIDAY WITH
LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH IN THE LEE OF OF THE SIERRA STAYING MOSTLY
DRY. AT THIS TIME, THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY SUBTROPICAL,
SO EVEN IF PRECIP DOES REACH THE SIERRA IT WOULD MORE LIKELY BE RAIN
WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ON THE HIGH SIDE. JCM/MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. AHEAD OF THE RIDGE, WINDS
ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS AN EASTERLY JET DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
SIERRA. AREAS OF TURBULENCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
SIERRA RIDGES WITH GUSTS NEAR 65 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT RIDGE LEVEL
(~10,000 FT). RIDGE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 03-18Z SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW, LESS THAN 15 KTS
IS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS SIERRA TERMINALS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AT KRNO AND KCXP.

CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS INTO
SATURDAY AS A LARGE SWATH OF DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR FOG FORMATION AT KTRK
MAINLY IF WINDS CAN KEEP MARTIS VALLEY MIXED OVERNIGHT. MAY STILL
EXPERIENCE PATCHY AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH CLEARING SKIES IN
AREAS OF LIGHT WINDS. FUENTES

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 301125
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
325 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN BAJA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES.
LAKE WATERS WILL BE CHOPPY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE STORM TRACK LIKELY REMAINING TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS WESTERN NV AND THE EASTERN SIERRA
THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND NORTHERN SIDE OF
UPPER LOW WHICH WAS NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. MODELS HAVE
BEEN TO QUICK TO CLEAR MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA AND THUS WE HAVE
PLACED SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN FOR THE MORNING, MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-80. AS THE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT, A DRIER
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM
AND THIS SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN A CLEARING TREND FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. WE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MONO-MINERAL
COUNTIES ALTHOUGH THE QPF AMOUNTS ARE GOING TO BE LIGHT.

THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING NORTHEAST RIDGE LEVEL WINDS
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. RIDGE GUSTS WILL
APPROACH 75 MPH WITH AN INCREASING SFC GRADIENT BRINGING A PERIOD
OF GUSTY WINDS TO PYRAMID LAKE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, AND ACROSS LAKE TAHOE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CHOPPY LAKE
WATERS MAY REQUIRE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
AS WINDS WILL BE GUSTING CLOSE TO 30 MPH WITH 1 TO 3 FOOT CHOP.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
PREVAILING INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START NOTICEABLY COLDER
SUNDAY MORNING AS CLEAR SKIES AND A DRIER AIRMASS ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOHMANN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

FOR NEXT MONDAY, WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MAY BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHEAST
CA-NORTHWEST NV. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN EFFECT OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN MIXING AND AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHS
REACHING THE MID 60S FOR WESTERN NV VALLEYS, IF CLOUD COVER DOES
NOT BECOME TOO THICK IN THE AFTERNOON.

MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WAS WAVERING ON THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF RIDGE AXIS, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE
THERE PREVIOUSLY WAS GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE MOISTURE FEED AND
STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER
WESTERN NV, THE 00Z GFS AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE BRINGING
PRECIP INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE NEWLY ARRIVED 06Z GFS WENT BACK TOWARD A DRIER
OUTCOME WHICH WAS MORE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. DUE TO
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WE WILL HOLD OFF ON MAKING MUCH CHANGE AT
THIS TIME AND KEEP THE REGION DRY, ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE
TRENDED UPWARD. THIS POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN MIN
TEMPS NOT AS COOL FOR MOST NIGHTS.

BY NEXT THURSDAY, IT APPEARS THAT FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST AS STRONGER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
WIDESPREAD HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP AREAS OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD
WITH THICKEST CLOUD COVER MOST LIKELY FROM INTERSTATE 80 NORTHWARD.

FOR MAX TEMPS NEXT TUESDAY-THURSDAY, THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM IT WILL GET. INVERSIONS
WILL BE WEAK SO UNLESS A THICK OVERCAST PREVAILS ALL DAY, HIGHS EACH
DAY SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE 60 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH
MID-UPPER 50S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME PRECIPITATION REACHING NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NV TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE FEED. AT
THIS TIME, THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY SUBTROPICAL, SO EVEN
IF PRECIP DOES REACH THE SIERRA IT WOULD MORE LIKELY BE RAIN WITH
SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ON THE HIGH SIDE. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK GENERALLY BETWEEN 12,000 AND
14,000 FEET MSL HAS PREVENTED FOG FORMATION AT KTRK OVERNIGHT. IF
THESE CLOUDS DO NOT DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNRISE THAN FOG IS UNLIKELY TO
DEVELOP, AND LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWED EXPANSION OF THESE
CLOUDS OVER THE TAHOE BASIN AND WESTERN NV SOUTH OF LOVELOCK.

NORTHEAST SFC FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH PREVAILING SPEEDS
10-15 KT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NV AND SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR EASTERN
CA. LIGHTER WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY. STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS AT RIDGE LEVEL WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE AREAS OF TURBULENCE FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NEAR
THE SIERRA. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO LIMIT FZFG POTENTIAL AT KTRK
TONIGHT DESPITE CLEARING SKIES. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 301125
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
325 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN BAJA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES.
LAKE WATERS WILL BE CHOPPY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE STORM TRACK LIKELY REMAINING TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS WESTERN NV AND THE EASTERN SIERRA
THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND NORTHERN SIDE OF
UPPER LOW WHICH WAS NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. MODELS HAVE
BEEN TO QUICK TO CLEAR MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA AND THUS WE HAVE
PLACED SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN FOR THE MORNING, MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-80. AS THE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT, A DRIER
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM
AND THIS SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN A CLEARING TREND FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. WE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MONO-MINERAL
COUNTIES ALTHOUGH THE QPF AMOUNTS ARE GOING TO BE LIGHT.

THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE INCREASING NORTHEAST RIDGE LEVEL WINDS
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. RIDGE GUSTS WILL
APPROACH 75 MPH WITH AN INCREASING SFC GRADIENT BRINGING A PERIOD
OF GUSTY WINDS TO PYRAMID LAKE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, AND ACROSS LAKE TAHOE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. CHOPPY LAKE
WATERS MAY REQUIRE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE
AS WINDS WILL BE GUSTING CLOSE TO 30 MPH WITH 1 TO 3 FOOT CHOP.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
PREVAILING INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START NOTICEABLY COLDER
SUNDAY MORNING AS CLEAR SKIES AND A DRIER AIRMASS ALLOW FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOHMANN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

FOR NEXT MONDAY, WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MAY BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO FAR NORTHEAST
CA-NORTHWEST NV. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN EFFECT OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN MIXING AND AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHS
REACHING THE MID 60S FOR WESTERN NV VALLEYS, IF CLOUD COVER DOES
NOT BECOME TOO THICK IN THE AFTERNOON.

MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WAS WAVERING ON THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF RIDGE AXIS, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE
THERE PREVIOUSLY WAS GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE MOISTURE FEED AND
STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER WITH LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER
WESTERN NV, THE 00Z GFS AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE BRINGING
PRECIP INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE NEWLY ARRIVED 06Z GFS WENT BACK TOWARD A DRIER
OUTCOME WHICH WAS MORE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. DUE TO
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WE WILL HOLD OFF ON MAKING MUCH CHANGE AT
THIS TIME AND KEEP THE REGION DRY, ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE
TRENDED UPWARD. THIS POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN MIN
TEMPS NOT AS COOL FOR MOST NIGHTS.

BY NEXT THURSDAY, IT APPEARS THAT FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST AS STRONGER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
WIDESPREAD HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP AREAS OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD
WITH THICKEST CLOUD COVER MOST LIKELY FROM INTERSTATE 80 NORTHWARD.

FOR MAX TEMPS NEXT TUESDAY-THURSDAY, THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM IT WILL GET. INVERSIONS
WILL BE WEAK SO UNLESS A THICK OVERCAST PREVAILS ALL DAY, HIGHS EACH
DAY SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE 60 DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH
MID-UPPER 50S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME PRECIPITATION REACHING NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NV TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE FEED. AT
THIS TIME, THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY SUBTROPICAL, SO EVEN
IF PRECIP DOES REACH THE SIERRA IT WOULD MORE LIKELY BE RAIN WITH
SNOW LEVELS REMAINING ON THE HIGH SIDE. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK GENERALLY BETWEEN 12,000 AND
14,000 FEET MSL HAS PREVENTED FOG FORMATION AT KTRK OVERNIGHT. IF
THESE CLOUDS DO NOT DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNRISE THAN FOG IS UNLIKELY TO
DEVELOP, AND LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWED EXPANSION OF THESE
CLOUDS OVER THE TAHOE BASIN AND WESTERN NV SOUTH OF LOVELOCK.

NORTHEAST SFC FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH PREVAILING SPEEDS
10-15 KT ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NV AND SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR EASTERN
CA. LIGHTER WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY. STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS AT RIDGE LEVEL WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE AREAS OF TURBULENCE FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NEAR
THE SIERRA. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO LIMIT FZFG POTENTIAL AT KTRK
TONIGHT DESPITE CLEARING SKIES. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 300343 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
743 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER BECOMING MORE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA THIS EVENING IN A WEAK AREA OF DEFORMATION NORTH OF
THE UPPER LOW OFF BAJA. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WERE SEEN WEST OF THE
SIERRA CREST EARLIER, BUT NOW SOME HAVE MOVED ACROSS WITH SOME
LIGHT RETURNS NEAR PORTOLA. ALSO HAVE GOTTEN REPORTS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AROUND MONO LAKE. WILL UPDATE TO ADD SHOWERS IN
THE SIERRA FROM HIGHWAY 70 SOUTH THROUGH MONO COUNTY. HAVE ALSO
UPDATED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SOMEWHAT MILD TONIGHT SOUTH OF I-80.
WALLMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL PROVIDE PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH CLEARING ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. GUSTY RIDGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH
CHOPPY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON LAKE TAHOE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE STORM TRACK
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NEVADA AND
THE SIERRA AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THERE IS A NARROW BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTH OF PYRAMID LAKE WHICH IS CREATING AN OVERCAST DECK NEAR
10,000` MSL BUT OTHERWISE JUST SHALLOW CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS OTHER AREAS. EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
WITH CLEARING BEGINNING INTO SATURDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DISPLACES THE UPPER LOW ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. EAST WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WITH
A MODEST UPPER LEVEL JET DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE SIERRA BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS FROM THE EAST COULD
CREATE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS LAKE TAHOE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES REACHING NEAR 75 MPH
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

A DRY SLOT THEN FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS, RESULTING IN CLEARING AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA COULD SEE HIGHS BACK IN THE LOWER
60S BY SUNDAY. LOW 50S IN THE SIERRA WILL INCREASE INTO THE UPPER
50S BY SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS MOISTURE STREAMS
ACROSS THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. FUENTES

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A WEAK SYSTEM TO SPREAD MOISTURE MAINLY
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE. TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND WARMING AIR MASS OVER THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD TO OVER THE SIERRA BY WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO WINDS ALOFT
TRANSITIONING FROM NORTHWEST TUESDAY TO SOUTHWEST-WEST BY WEDNESDAY.
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND EVEN ACROSS SIERRA RIDGES GUSTS LESS THAN
20 MPH ARE EXPECTED. MODERATE VALLEY TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL
OCCUR EACH NIGHT, BUT SURFACE HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
AFTERNOON MIXING TO LIMIT THE TYPICAL INCREASE OF HAZE AND STAGNANT
AIR.

THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN, BUT STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS (SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS POSSIBLY
AROUND 60 MPH) COULD INCREASE AFTERNOON MIXING AND MAKE THURSDAY THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. JCM


AVIATION...EXPECT LIGHT EAST WINDS THROUGH 03Z THURSDAY AND THEN
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE TYPICAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE EAST WINDS AT
KCXP, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE UNTIL
AROUND 03Z. ON FRIDAY, SFC FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH PREVAILING SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. STRONGER NORTHEAST
WINDS AT RIDGE LEVEL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AREAS OF TURBULENCE FROM
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NEAR THE SIERRA. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG AT KTRK AFTER 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING. JCM

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 300343 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
743 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER BECOMING MORE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA THIS EVENING IN A WEAK AREA OF DEFORMATION NORTH OF
THE UPPER LOW OFF BAJA. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WERE SEEN WEST OF THE
SIERRA CREST EARLIER, BUT NOW SOME HAVE MOVED ACROSS WITH SOME
LIGHT RETURNS NEAR PORTOLA. ALSO HAVE GOTTEN REPORTS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AROUND MONO LAKE. WILL UPDATE TO ADD SHOWERS IN
THE SIERRA FROM HIGHWAY 70 SOUTH THROUGH MONO COUNTY. HAVE ALSO
UPDATED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SOMEWHAT MILD TONIGHT SOUTH OF I-80.
WALLMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL PROVIDE PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH CLEARING ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. GUSTY RIDGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH
CHOPPY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON LAKE TAHOE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE STORM TRACK
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NEVADA AND
THE SIERRA AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THERE IS A NARROW BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTH OF PYRAMID LAKE WHICH IS CREATING AN OVERCAST DECK NEAR
10,000` MSL BUT OTHERWISE JUST SHALLOW CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS OTHER AREAS. EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
WITH CLEARING BEGINNING INTO SATURDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DISPLACES THE UPPER LOW ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. EAST WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WITH
A MODEST UPPER LEVEL JET DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE SIERRA BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS FROM THE EAST COULD
CREATE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS LAKE TAHOE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES REACHING NEAR 75 MPH
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

A DRY SLOT THEN FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS, RESULTING IN CLEARING AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA COULD SEE HIGHS BACK IN THE LOWER
60S BY SUNDAY. LOW 50S IN THE SIERRA WILL INCREASE INTO THE UPPER
50S BY SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS MOISTURE STREAMS
ACROSS THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. FUENTES

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A WEAK SYSTEM TO SPREAD MOISTURE MAINLY
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE. TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND WARMING AIR MASS OVER THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD TO OVER THE SIERRA BY WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO WINDS ALOFT
TRANSITIONING FROM NORTHWEST TUESDAY TO SOUTHWEST-WEST BY WEDNESDAY.
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND EVEN ACROSS SIERRA RIDGES GUSTS LESS THAN
20 MPH ARE EXPECTED. MODERATE VALLEY TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL
OCCUR EACH NIGHT, BUT SURFACE HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
AFTERNOON MIXING TO LIMIT THE TYPICAL INCREASE OF HAZE AND STAGNANT
AIR.

THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN, BUT STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS (SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS POSSIBLY
AROUND 60 MPH) COULD INCREASE AFTERNOON MIXING AND MAKE THURSDAY THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. JCM


AVIATION...EXPECT LIGHT EAST WINDS THROUGH 03Z THURSDAY AND THEN
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE TYPICAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE EAST WINDS AT
KCXP, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE UNTIL
AROUND 03Z. ON FRIDAY, SFC FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH PREVAILING SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. STRONGER NORTHEAST
WINDS AT RIDGE LEVEL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AREAS OF TURBULENCE FROM
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NEAR THE SIERRA. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG AT KTRK AFTER 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING. JCM

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 292233
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
233 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL PROVIDE PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH CLEARING ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. GUSTY RIDGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH
CHOPPY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON LAKE TAHOE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE STORM TRACK
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NEVADA AND
THE SIERRA AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THERE IS A NARROW BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTH OF PYRAMID LAKE WHICH IS CREATING AN OVERCAST DECK NEAR
10,000` MSL BUT OTHERWISE JUST SHALLOW CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS OTHER AREAS. EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
WITH CLEARING BEGINNING INTO SATURDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DISPLACES THE UPPER LOW ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. EAST WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WITH
A MODEST UPPER LEVEL JET DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE SIERRA BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS FROM THE EAST COULD
CREATE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS LAKE TAHOE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES REACHING NEAR 75 MPH
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

A DRY SLOT THEN FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS, RESULTING IN CLEARING AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA COULD SEE HIGHS BACK IN THE LOWER
60S BY SUNDAY. LOW 50S IN THE SIERRA WILL INCREASE INTO THE UPPER
50S BY SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS MOISTURE STREAMS
ACROSS THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. FUENTES

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A WEAK SYSTEM TO SPREAD MOISTURE MAINLY
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE. TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND WARMING AIR MASS OVER THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD TO OVER THE SIERRA BY WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO WINDS ALOFT
TRANSITIONING FROM NORTHWEST TUESDAY TO SOUTHWEST-WEST BY WEDNESDAY.
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND EVEN ACROSS SIERRA RIDGES GUSTS LESS THAN
20 MPH ARE EXPECTED. MODERATE VALLEY TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL
OCCUR EACH NIGHT, BUT SURFACE HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
AFTERNOON MIXING TO LIMIT THE TYPICAL INCREASE OF HAZE AND STAGNANT
AIR.

THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN, BUT STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS (SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS POSSIBLY
AROUND 60 MPH) COULD INCREASE AFTERNOON MIXING AND MAKE THURSDAY THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. JCM

&&


.AVIATION...EXPECT LIGHT EAST WINDS THROUGH 03Z THURSDAY AND THEN
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE TYPICAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE EAST WINDS AT
KCXP, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE UNTIL
AROUND 03Z. ON FRIDAY, SFC FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH PREVAILING SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. STRONGER NORTHEAST
WINDS AT RIDGE LEVEL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AREAS OF TURBULENCE FROM
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NEAR THE SIERRA. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG AT KTRK AFTER 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING. JCM

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 292233
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
233 PM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL PROVIDE PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH CLEARING ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. GUSTY RIDGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH
CHOPPY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON LAKE TAHOE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE STORM TRACK
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NEVADA AND
THE SIERRA AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THERE IS A NARROW BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTH OF PYRAMID LAKE WHICH IS CREATING AN OVERCAST DECK NEAR
10,000` MSL BUT OTHERWISE JUST SHALLOW CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS OTHER AREAS. EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
WITH CLEARING BEGINNING INTO SATURDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DISPLACES THE UPPER LOW ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. EAST WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WITH
A MODEST UPPER LEVEL JET DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE SIERRA BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS FROM THE EAST COULD
CREATE SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS LAKE TAHOE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES REACHING NEAR 75 MPH
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

A DRY SLOT THEN FILTERS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS, RESULTING IN CLEARING AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA COULD SEE HIGHS BACK IN THE LOWER
60S BY SUNDAY. LOW 50S IN THE SIERRA WILL INCREASE INTO THE UPPER
50S BY SUNDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS MOISTURE STREAMS
ACROSS THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. FUENTES

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A WEAK SYSTEM TO SPREAD MOISTURE MAINLY
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE. TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND WARMING AIR MASS OVER THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD TO OVER THE SIERRA BY WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO WINDS ALOFT
TRANSITIONING FROM NORTHWEST TUESDAY TO SOUTHWEST-WEST BY WEDNESDAY.
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND EVEN ACROSS SIERRA RIDGES GUSTS LESS THAN
20 MPH ARE EXPECTED. MODERATE VALLEY TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL
OCCUR EACH NIGHT, BUT SURFACE HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
AFTERNOON MIXING TO LIMIT THE TYPICAL INCREASE OF HAZE AND STAGNANT
AIR.

THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN, BUT STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS (SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS POSSIBLY
AROUND 60 MPH) COULD INCREASE AFTERNOON MIXING AND MAKE THURSDAY THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. JCM

&&


.AVIATION...EXPECT LIGHT EAST WINDS THROUGH 03Z THURSDAY AND THEN
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE TYPICAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE EAST WINDS AT
KCXP, WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE UNTIL
AROUND 03Z. ON FRIDAY, SFC FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH PREVAILING SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. STRONGER NORTHEAST
WINDS AT RIDGE LEVEL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AREAS OF TURBULENCE FROM
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NEAR THE SIERRA. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG AT KTRK AFTER 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING. JCM

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 291103
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
303 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR ACROSS MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
STORM TRACK REMAINING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF DYNAMICS. WEAK INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR PERIODS OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS MOST AREAS WITH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE OVER MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES. SOUTHERN END
OF TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CA-AZ-NORTHWEST
MEXICO FRI-SAT WITH A DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW TO BRING A SLOW DRYING
TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE RIDGES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES ON BACK
SIDE OF UPPER LOW WITH PERIODS OF NORTHEAST WINDS DOWN IN LOWER
VALLEYS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE. WE KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, BUT QPF IS GOING TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH BETTER INSTABILITY
AND SHOWER COVERAGE STAYING FARTHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES MAY COOL
A FEW DEGREES, HOWEVER READINGS THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE STILL GOING
TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FOG FORMATION THIS
MORNING, ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE WHERE CLOUD BREAKS OCCUR.
CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE TONIGHT NEAR AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AS CLOUDS THIN. HOHMANN

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME FLATTENING OF
THE RIDGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BUT KEEPS THE BEST MOISTURE FEED AND
STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS
BRUSHING ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIP
FARTHER SOUTH TO THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR OR THE TAHOE BASIN HAS
DROPPED SUBSTANTIALLY, SO WE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS FROM
THESE AREAS.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, RIDGE REBUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA
THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH ALL AREAS REMAINING
DRY. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS NOT VERY SHARP, SO THIS
WILL LIKELY KEEP AREAS OF CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA, BUT ALSO LIMIT THE INVERSION STRENGTH.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SIERRA VALLEYS, WITH LIMITED
MIXING TO THE LOWER VALLEYS. FOR MONDAY, SOME COOLING WILL OCCUR
NEAR THE SIERRA, BUT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
IMPROVE MIXING AND PUSH TEMPS HIGHER FOR WESTERN NV VALLEYS. GFS MOS
GUIDANCE PUSHED HIGHS ABOVE 65 DEGREES FOR RENO ON MONDAY, BUT WE
DIDN`T GO THAT HIGH SINCE PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER MAY PREVENT
FULL MIXING DOWN FROM RIDGE LEVEL (AROUND 700 MB) DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WE KEPT TEMPS ABOVE 60 DEGREES FOR
MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, BASED ON THE DESCRIPTION OF THE RIDGE IN
THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF CIRRUS HAVE PREVENTED FZFG FORMATION AT KTRK SO FAR BUT
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH BREAKS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG AROUND THE TERMINAL. EAST WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA
CREST ARE ALSO A LIMITING FACTOR FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS
MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR FZFG AROUND KTRK INCREASES FOR EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS LESS CLOUD COVER AND WEAKER RIDGE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY, WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OF SPEEDS TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE AT
KCXP BETWEEN 21-03Z. ON FRIDAY, SFC FLOW BECOMES NORTHEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH PREVAILING SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. STRONGER
NORTHEAST RIDGE WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AREAS OF TURBULENCE FROM
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NEAR THE SIERRA. MJD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)











000
FXUS65 KREV 282226
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
226 PM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE REGION WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD IS BRINGING PLEASANT MILD WEATHER TO THE
REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
MOVING IN TONIGHT AS A BAGGY TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST. WE`VE
DROPPED THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
AS MODELS RH FIELDS AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ALOFT. THESE HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE THIN
ENOUGH TO STILL ALLOW ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT TO GET
PATCHY FOG IN THE SIERRA VALLEY AND MARTIS VALLEY NEAR TRUCKEE, AS
WELL AS IN THE CARSON/HUMBOLDT SINK BETWEEN LOVELOCK AND FALLON.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER INLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THIS WILL
HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE A LITTLE, BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE EASTERN SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SUPER EXCITED ABOUT THE SHOWER
POTENTIAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF LIFT/INSTABILITY,
BUT DID LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. IF ANY SHOWERS DO
DEVELOP, THEY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION.

AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER SOCAL-ARIZONA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THIS
WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AND PULL THE MOISTURE
AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAVE CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
NORTHERN CA/NV. HOON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

COMPUTER GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN FLATTENING THE RIDGE OVER
THE WEST SUNDAY AS A WESTERLY JET SPREADS MOISTURE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE CENTER OF THE JET REMAINS NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER,
BUT WEAK JET DYNAMICS WARRANTS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF
A SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE SUNDAY NIGHT AND AS FAR SOUTH AS
INTERSTATE 80 ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED, SO ANY SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF PRECIPITATION IF THEY DO DEVELOP.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOME
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN
NV COMMUNITIES WARMING INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 60S BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER,
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE COAST AND WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
THE AIR MASS SHOULD BE SLOW TO WARM. AS SUCH WE MAINTAINED THE
FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. JCM

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL INCREASE HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COLDER VALLEYS TO
DEVELOP SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FZFG FOR KTRK AND KLOL WITH VIS DOWN TO
1/4SM. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY ABOUT A
15% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW AT KMMH THU-FRI WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR GUSTY EAST WINDS AND
AREAS OF TURBULENCE ACROSS THE SIERRA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A
MODEST EASTERLY JET DROPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA.  TF

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
















000
FXUS65 KREV 282226
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
226 PM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE REGION WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD IS BRINGING PLEASANT MILD WEATHER TO THE
REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
MOVING IN TONIGHT AS A BAGGY TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST. WE`VE
DROPPED THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
AS MODELS RH FIELDS AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ALOFT. THESE HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE THIN
ENOUGH TO STILL ALLOW ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT TO GET
PATCHY FOG IN THE SIERRA VALLEY AND MARTIS VALLEY NEAR TRUCKEE, AS
WELL AS IN THE CARSON/HUMBOLDT SINK BETWEEN LOVELOCK AND FALLON.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER INLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THIS WILL
HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE A LITTLE, BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE EASTERN SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SUPER EXCITED ABOUT THE SHOWER
POTENTIAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF LIFT/INSTABILITY,
BUT DID LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR NOW. IF ANY SHOWERS DO
DEVELOP, THEY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION.

AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER SOCAL-ARIZONA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THIS
WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AND PULL THE MOISTURE
AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAVE CLEAR SKIES AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
NORTHERN CA/NV. HOON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

COMPUTER GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN FLATTENING THE RIDGE OVER
THE WEST SUNDAY AS A WESTERLY JET SPREADS MOISTURE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE CENTER OF THE JET REMAINS NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER,
BUT WEAK JET DYNAMICS WARRANTS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF
A SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE SUNDAY NIGHT AND AS FAR SOUTH AS
INTERSTATE 80 ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED, SO ANY SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF PRECIPITATION IF THEY DO DEVELOP.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE WEST COAST. SOME
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN
NV COMMUNITIES WARMING INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 60S BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER,
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE COAST AND WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
THE AIR MASS SHOULD BE SLOW TO WARM. AS SUCH WE MAINTAINED THE
FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. JCM

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL INCREASE HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COLDER VALLEYS TO
DEVELOP SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FZFG FOR KTRK AND KLOL WITH VIS DOWN TO
1/4SM. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY ABOUT A
15% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW AT KMMH THU-FRI WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.  LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR GUSTY EAST WINDS AND
AREAS OF TURBULENCE ACROSS THE SIERRA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A
MODEST EASTERLY JET DROPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA.  TF

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)















000
FXUS65 KREV 281657 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
857 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO DROP THE CLOUD COVER DOWN TO PARTLY
CLOUDY. SATELLITE TRENDS ARE SHOWING THAT IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HOON

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

MOIST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...

SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE ALLOWING FOR THE EARLY FORMATION OF
FREEZING FOG IN THE MARTIS VALLEY. IT IS LIKELY THAT OTHER SIERRA
LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE SOME FOG AS THESE BREAKS MOVE ACROSS THE
SIERRA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
INCREASING/DECREASING SKY COVERAGE SO EXPECT SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
FOG THICKNESS THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS FOR TYPICAL LOCATIONS LIKE THE MARTIS AND SIERRA VALLEYS AS
SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA.

A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL
MOIST FLOW KEEPING AMPLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. WHILE AN
EXTREMELY ISOLATED HIGH ELEVATION SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THE
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY TODAY. AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT VARY WIDELY FROM SIERRA VALLEYS TO WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 50S.

SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AS FLOW RESPONDS TO A
DEEPENING LOW NEAR THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER, SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY.
STILL, HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES HANGING AROUND 50
DEGREES IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MEANDERS A BIT BEFORE
DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THESE LOW CHANCES WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. DRIER
FLOW RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BOYD

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. RIDGE AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WESTERN NV SATURDAY, KEEPING THE REGION DRY
WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND STRONGER RIDGE
GUSTS OVER THE SIERRA. THIS NORTHEAST FLOW WITH INVERSION IN PLACE
WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING DESPITE LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER, KEEPING
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR WESTERN NV AND SIERRA
VALLEYS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AS MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THIS MOIST FLOW IS TRACKING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE, WHICH WOULD INCREASE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL IS STILL LIMITED DUE TO MARGINAL FORCING, BUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV SUNDAY NIGHT,
AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80 BY MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF SHOWER POTENTIAL IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, SO
CURRENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP SPREADING SOUTH
OF A SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE IS LOW.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES AS
INVERSION WEAKENS AND FLOW BECOMES WEST, ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL
PREVENT FURTHER HEATING ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH.
MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF COOLING WILL
DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION.

BY MONDAY NIGHT, OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR THIS WAVE TO
DIG A BIT SOUTH WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS FORMING IN WEST
CENTRAL NV, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE DATA PUSHES THIS SYSTEM
AND PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER TO THE EAST.

BY TUESDAY, RIDGE RETURNS TO THE WEST COAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS VARIES WHICH WOULD
AFFECT DAYTIME TEMPS. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A SHARPER AXIS OFF THE
COAST WHICH WOULD LEAD TO COOLER HIGHS FOR THE REGION WITH
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW ESPECIALLY FOR RIDGES. THE ECMWF AND MOST
OF THE ENSEMBLE DATA FAVORED A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE, WHICH WAS
INDICATED BY THE INHERITED FORECAST. WE WILL KEEP THIS FORECAST
INTACT FOR NOW WHICH WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. MJD

AVIATION...

CLEARING SKIES AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM TUESDAY`S RAIN ALLOWED
FZFG TO ROLL INTO KTRK BETWEEN 200 AND 230 AM. THIS FOG DISPERSED
MOMENTARILY AROUND 3 AM AS A BAND OF CLOUDS MOVED OVERHEAD, BUT
WITH FEW SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS UPSTREAM WE WILL KEEP MENTION OF FZFG
THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF FZFG AROUND KTRK EASTERN SIERRA/PLUMAS COUNTIES
FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY FROM 09-17Z.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AT KCXP WHERE EAST FLOW IS TYPICALLY ENHANCED,
SPEEDS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE MAINLY BETWEEN
21-03Z BOTH DAYS. MJD


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 281657 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
857 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO DROP THE CLOUD COVER DOWN TO PARTLY
CLOUDY. SATELLITE TRENDS ARE SHOWING THAT IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. HOON

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

MOIST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...

SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE ALLOWING FOR THE EARLY FORMATION OF
FREEZING FOG IN THE MARTIS VALLEY. IT IS LIKELY THAT OTHER SIERRA
LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE SOME FOG AS THESE BREAKS MOVE ACROSS THE
SIERRA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
INCREASING/DECREASING SKY COVERAGE SO EXPECT SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
FOG THICKNESS THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS FOR TYPICAL LOCATIONS LIKE THE MARTIS AND SIERRA VALLEYS AS
SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA.

A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL
MOIST FLOW KEEPING AMPLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. WHILE AN
EXTREMELY ISOLATED HIGH ELEVATION SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THE
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY TODAY. AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT VARY WIDELY FROM SIERRA VALLEYS TO WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 50S.

SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AS FLOW RESPONDS TO A
DEEPENING LOW NEAR THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER, SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY.
STILL, HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES HANGING AROUND 50
DEGREES IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MEANDERS A BIT BEFORE
DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THESE LOW CHANCES WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. DRIER
FLOW RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BOYD

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. RIDGE AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WESTERN NV SATURDAY, KEEPING THE REGION DRY
WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND STRONGER RIDGE
GUSTS OVER THE SIERRA. THIS NORTHEAST FLOW WITH INVERSION IN PLACE
WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING DESPITE LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER, KEEPING
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR WESTERN NV AND SIERRA
VALLEYS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AS MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THIS MOIST FLOW IS TRACKING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE, WHICH WOULD INCREASE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL IS STILL LIMITED DUE TO MARGINAL FORCING, BUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV SUNDAY NIGHT,
AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80 BY MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF SHOWER POTENTIAL IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, SO
CURRENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP SPREADING SOUTH
OF A SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE IS LOW.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES AS
INVERSION WEAKENS AND FLOW BECOMES WEST, ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL
PREVENT FURTHER HEATING ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH.
MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF COOLING WILL
DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION.

BY MONDAY NIGHT, OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR THIS WAVE TO
DIG A BIT SOUTH WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS FORMING IN WEST
CENTRAL NV, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE DATA PUSHES THIS SYSTEM
AND PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER TO THE EAST.

BY TUESDAY, RIDGE RETURNS TO THE WEST COAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS VARIES WHICH WOULD
AFFECT DAYTIME TEMPS. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A SHARPER AXIS OFF THE
COAST WHICH WOULD LEAD TO COOLER HIGHS FOR THE REGION WITH
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW ESPECIALLY FOR RIDGES. THE ECMWF AND MOST
OF THE ENSEMBLE DATA FAVORED A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE, WHICH WAS
INDICATED BY THE INHERITED FORECAST. WE WILL KEEP THIS FORECAST
INTACT FOR NOW WHICH WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. MJD

AVIATION...

CLEARING SKIES AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM TUESDAY`S RAIN ALLOWED
FZFG TO ROLL INTO KTRK BETWEEN 200 AND 230 AM. THIS FOG DISPERSED
MOMENTARILY AROUND 3 AM AS A BAND OF CLOUDS MOVED OVERHEAD, BUT
WITH FEW SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS UPSTREAM WE WILL KEEP MENTION OF FZFG
THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF FZFG AROUND KTRK EASTERN SIERRA/PLUMAS COUNTIES
FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY FROM 09-17Z.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AT KCXP WHERE EAST FLOW IS TYPICALLY ENHANCED,
SPEEDS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE MAINLY BETWEEN
21-03Z BOTH DAYS. MJD


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 281114
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
314 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MOIST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE ALLOWING FOR THE EARLY FORMATION OF
FREEZING FOG IN THE MARTIS VALLEY. IT IS LIKELY THAT OTHER SIERRA
LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE SOME FOG AS THESE BREAKS MOVE ACROSS THE
SIERRA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
INCREASING/DECREASING SKY COVERAGE SO EXPECT SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
FOG THICKNESS THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS FOR TYPICAL LOCATIONS LIKE THE MARTIS AND SIERRA VALLEYS AS
SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA.

A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL
MOIST FLOW KEEPING AMPLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. WHILE AN
EXTREMELY ISOLATED HIGH ELEVATION SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THE
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY TODAY. AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT VARY WIDELY FROM SIERRA VALLEYS TO WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 50S.

SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AS FLOW RESPONDS TO A
DEEPENING LOW NEAR THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER, SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY.
STILL, HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES HANGING AROUND 50
DEGREES IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MEANDERS A BIT BEFORE
DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THESE LOW CHANCES WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. DRIER
FLOW RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BOYD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. RIDGE AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WESTERN NV SATURDAY, KEEPING THE REGION DRY
WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND STRONGER RIDGE
GUSTS OVER THE SIERRA. THIS NORTHEAST FLOW WITH INVERSION IN PLACE
WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING DESPITE LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER, KEEPING
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR WESTERN NV AND SIERRA
VALLEYS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AS MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THIS MOIST FLOW IS TRACKING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE, WHICH WOULD INCREASE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL IS STILL LIMITED DUE TO MARGINAL FORCING, BUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV SUNDAY NIGHT,
AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80 BY MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF SHOWER POTENTIAL IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, SO
CURRENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP SPREADING SOUTH
OF A SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE IS LOW.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES AS
INVERSION WEAKENS AND FLOW BECOMES WEST, ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL
PREVENT FURTHER HEATING ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH.
MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF COOLING WILL
DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION.

BY MONDAY NIGHT, OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR THIS WAVE TO
DIG A BIT SOUTH WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS FORMING IN WEST
CENTRAL NV, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE DATA PUSHES THIS SYSTEM
AND PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER TO THE EAST.

BY TUESDAY, RIDGE RETURNS TO THE WEST COAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS VARIES WHICH WOULD
AFFECT DAYTIME TEMPS. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A SHARPER AXIS OFF THE
COAST WHICH WOULD LEAD TO COOLER HIGHS FOR THE REGION WITH
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW ESPECIALLY FOR RIDGES. THE ECMWF AND MOST
OF THE ENSEMBLE DATA FAVORED A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE, WHICH WAS
INDICATED BY THE INHERITED FORECAST. WE WILL KEEP THIS FORECAST
INTACT FOR NOW WHICH WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

CLEARING SKIES AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM TUESDAY`S RAIN ALLOWED
FZFG TO ROLL INTO KTRK BETWEEN 200 AND 230 AM. THIS FOG DISPERSED
MOMENTARILY AROUND 3 AM AS A BAND OF CLOUDS MOVED OVERHEAD, BUT
WITH FEW SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS UPSTREAM WE WILL KEEP MENTION OF FZFG
THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF FZFG AROUND KTRK EASTERN SIERRA/PLUMAS COUNTIES
FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY FROM 09-17Z.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AT KCXP WHERE EAST FLOW IS TYPICALLY ENHANCED,
SPEEDS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE MAINLY BETWEEN
21-03Z BOTH DAYS. MJD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 281104
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
304 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MOIST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE ALLOWING FOR THE EARLY FORMATION OF
FREEZING FOG IN THE MARTIS VALLEY. IT IS LIKELY THAT OTHER SIERRA
LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE SOME FOG AS THESE BREAKS MOVE ACROSS THE
SIERRA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
INCREASING/DECREASING SKY COVERAGE SO EXPECT SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
FOG THICKNESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING FOG WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS FOR
TYPICAL LOCATIONS LIKE THE MARTIS AND SIERRA VALLEYS AS SKIES
CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA.

A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL
MOIST FLOW KEEPING AMPLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. WHILE AN
EXTREMELY ISOLATED HIGH ELEVATION SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THE
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY TODAY. AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT VARY WIDELY FROM SIERRA VALLEYS TO WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 50S.

SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AS FLOW RESPONDS TO A
DEEPENING LOW NEAR THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY.
STILL, HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES HANGING AROUND 50
DEGREES IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MEANDERS A BIT BEFORE
DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THESE LOW CHANCES WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. DRIER
FLOW RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BOYD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. RIDGE AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WESTERN NV SATURDAY, KEEPING THE REGION DRY
WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND STRONGER RIDGE
GUSTS OVER THE SIERRA. THIS NORTHEAST FLOW WITH INVERSION IN PLACE
WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING DESPITE LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER, KEEPING
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR WESTERN NV AND SIERRA
VALLEYS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AS MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THIS MOIST FLOW IS TRACKING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE, WHICH WOULD INCREASE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL IS STILL LIMITED DUE TO MARGINAL FORCING, BUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV SUNDAY NIGHT,
AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80 BY MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF SHOWER POTENTIAL IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, SO
CURRENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP SPREADING SOUTH
OF A SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE IS LOW.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES AS
INVERSION WEAKENS AND FLOW BECOMES WEST, ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL
PREVENT FURTHER HEATING ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH.
MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF COOLING WILL
DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION.

BY MONDAY NIGHT, OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR THIS WAVE TO
DIG A BIT SOUTH WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS FORMING IN WEST
CENTRAL NV, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE DATA PUSHES THIS SYSTEM
AND PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER TO THE EAST.

BY TUESDAY, RIDGE RETURNS TO THE WEST COAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS VARIES WHICH WOULD
AFFECT DAYTIME TEMPS. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A SHARPER AXIS OFF THE
COAST WHICH WOULD LEAD TO COOLER HIGHS FOR THE REGION WITH
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW ESPECIALLY FOR RIDGES. THE ECMWF AND MOST
OF THE ENSEMBLE DATA FAVORED A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE, WHICH WAS
INDICATED BY THE INHERITED FORECAST. WE WILL KEEP THIS FORECAST
INTACT FOR NOW WHICH WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

CLEARING SKIES AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM TUESDAY`S RAIN ALLOWED
FZFG TO ROLL INTO KTRK BETWEEN 200 AND 230 AM. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDS UPSTREAM WE WILL KEEP FZFG GOING UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF FZFG AROUND KTRK
EASTERN SIERRA/PLUMAS COUNTIES FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY
FROM 09-17Z.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AT KCXP WHERE EAST FLOW IS TYPICALLY ENHANCED,
SPEEDS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE MAINLY BETWEEN
21-03Z BOTH DAYS. MJD

&&



.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 281104
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
304 AM PST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MOIST FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE ALLOWING FOR THE EARLY FORMATION OF
FREEZING FOG IN THE MARTIS VALLEY. IT IS LIKELY THAT OTHER SIERRA
LOCATIONS WILL ALSO SEE SOME FOG AS THESE BREAKS MOVE ACROSS THE
SIERRA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
INCREASING/DECREASING SKY COVERAGE SO EXPECT SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
FOG THICKNESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING FOG WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS FOR
TYPICAL LOCATIONS LIKE THE MARTIS AND SIERRA VALLEYS AS SKIES
CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA.

A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL
MOIST FLOW KEEPING AMPLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION. WHILE AN
EXTREMELY ISOLATED HIGH ELEVATION SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THE
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY TODAY. AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT VARY WIDELY FROM SIERRA VALLEYS TO WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 50S.

SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AS FLOW RESPONDS TO A
DEEPENING LOW NEAR THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY.
STILL, HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES HANGING AROUND 50
DEGREES IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MEANDERS A BIT BEFORE
DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THESE LOW CHANCES WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. DRIER
FLOW RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BOYD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. RIDGE AXIS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WESTERN NV SATURDAY, KEEPING THE REGION DRY
WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND STRONGER RIDGE
GUSTS OVER THE SIERRA. THIS NORTHEAST FLOW WITH INVERSION IN PLACE
WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING DESPITE LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER, KEEPING
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR WESTERN NV AND SIERRA
VALLEYS.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AS MOISTURE
SPREADS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THIS MOIST FLOW IS TRACKING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE, WHICH WOULD INCREASE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL IS STILL LIMITED DUE TO MARGINAL FORCING, BUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV SUNDAY NIGHT,
AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO NEAR INTERSTATE 80 BY MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF SHOWER POTENTIAL IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, SO
CURRENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP SPREADING SOUTH
OF A SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE IS LOW.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES AS
INVERSION WEAKENS AND FLOW BECOMES WEST, ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL
PREVENT FURTHER HEATING ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH.
MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF COOLING WILL
DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION.

BY MONDAY NIGHT, OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH AS SHORTWAVE
DEPARTS THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR THIS WAVE TO
DIG A BIT SOUTH WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS FORMING IN WEST
CENTRAL NV, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE DATA PUSHES THIS SYSTEM
AND PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER TO THE EAST.

BY TUESDAY, RIDGE RETURNS TO THE WEST COAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS VARIES WHICH WOULD
AFFECT DAYTIME TEMPS. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A SHARPER AXIS OFF THE
COAST WHICH WOULD LEAD TO COOLER HIGHS FOR THE REGION WITH
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW ESPECIALLY FOR RIDGES. THE ECMWF AND MOST
OF THE ENSEMBLE DATA FAVORED A LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE, WHICH WAS
INDICATED BY THE INHERITED FORECAST. WE WILL KEEP THIS FORECAST
INTACT FOR NOW WHICH WOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

CLEARING SKIES AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM TUESDAY`S RAIN ALLOWED
FZFG TO ROLL INTO KTRK BETWEEN 200 AND 230 AM. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDS UPSTREAM WE WILL KEEP FZFG GOING UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF FZFG AROUND KTRK
EASTERN SIERRA/PLUMAS COUNTIES FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY
FROM 09-17Z.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AT KCXP WHERE EAST FLOW IS TYPICALLY ENHANCED,
SPEEDS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE MAINLY BETWEEN
21-03Z BOTH DAYS. MJD

&&



.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities