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000
FXUS65 KREV 272144
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
244 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
FEW CHANGES MADE AS THE MODELS KEEP THE HIGH OVERHEAD THURSDAY
WITH A GRADUAL FLATTENING FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE THE
NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASE FRIDAY FROM THE WEST. GUSTS TO 25
MPH ARE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY THREAT OF PRECIPITATION, BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY AS SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM A WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM MARIE STREAMS IN. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND AS BROAD
TROUGHING IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ENHANCED ON SATURDAY
BUT JET STREAM WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH NEAR THE OREGON BORDER.
LOOKING FOR SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH
WIT HIGHER GUSTS IN WIND PRONE AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA ON
SUNDAY WITH MID 70S IN THE SIERRA. TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY BY MONDAY AND
WESTERLY AGAIN BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK BUT MAIN UNCERTAINTY
DEALS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH
THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WHILE EC IS WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS, BOTH PROVIDE DRY SOLUTIONS SO WILL JUST MAINTAIN LIGHT
AFTERNOON BREEZES WITH COOLER TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 70S IN THE SIERRA. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL INCREASE WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
WESTERLY GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 272144
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
244 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
FEW CHANGES MADE AS THE MODELS KEEP THE HIGH OVERHEAD THURSDAY
WITH A GRADUAL FLATTENING FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE THE
NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASE FRIDAY FROM THE WEST. GUSTS TO 25
MPH ARE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY THREAT OF PRECIPITATION, BUT CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY AS SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM A WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM MARIE STREAMS IN. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND AS BROAD
TROUGHING IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ENHANCED ON SATURDAY
BUT JET STREAM WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH NEAR THE OREGON BORDER.
LOOKING FOR SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH
WIT HIGHER GUSTS IN WIND PRONE AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA ON
SUNDAY WITH MID 70S IN THE SIERRA. TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY BY MONDAY AND
WESTERLY AGAIN BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WE
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK BUT MAIN UNCERTAINTY
DEALS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH
THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WHILE EC IS WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS, BOTH PROVIDE DRY SOLUTIONS SO WILL JUST MAINTAIN LIGHT
AFTERNOON BREEZES WITH COOLER TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 70S IN THE SIERRA. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL INCREASE WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
WESTERLY GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 270957
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER FRIDAY AS THIS HIGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN. FOR
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY, ALONG WITH A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND THROUGH LABOR DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA, WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES IN
SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL
NV, WHILE 700 MB TEMPS REACH THEIR PEAK VALUES OF 12 TO 13 C
ACROSS THE RENO-TAHOE REGION. LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL.

ON FRIDAY, THE RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO FLATTEN OVER THE REGION AS
TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE, HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING HURRICANE MARIE IS LIKELY TO
SPREAD OVER THE REGION. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING HUMIDITY
ABOVE 90 PERCENT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER ALONG WITH DECENT UPWARD
MOTION IN THIS LAYER, THE RESULTANT CIRRUS DECK COULD BECOME
RATHER THICK BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FROM I-80 SOUTHWARD.
THEREFORE WE HAVE TRENDED MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER, NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS AIR MASS BELOW
500 MB REMAINS RATHER DRY WITH LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.
SOME INCREASE IN WEST WINDS IS EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50, WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. MJD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
WITH FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. OPERATIONAL MODELS
AND MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NOW KEEP THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
MARIE WELL OFF THE WEST COAST WITH ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
LIKELY TO AFFECT OUR AREA.

THE BEST FORCING WITH THE TROUGH REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH THE GEM IS TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF ON SATURDAY.
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
WINDS COULD BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED. SATURDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE BREEZIEST DAY...BUT SUNDAY COULD BE BREEZY AS WELL.
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE THE STRONGEST SATURDAY AND BY SUNDAY MOST
OF THE AREA WILL BE BEHIND A SURFACE COOL FRONT.

CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EXTENDED COULD AFFECT TEMPERATURES MORE THAN
WE ARE ACCOUNTING FOR AT THIS TIME. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LOOKS LIKE
IT MIGHT BE A BIT TOO WARM...SO BY SUNDAY/MONDAY WE ARE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE.

BY TUESDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS ECMWF HOLDS A FLAT RIDGE OVER
THE REGION WHILE GFS...AND GEM TO A LESSER EXTENT...BEGIN TO CARVE A
SECONDARY TROUGH SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION. GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE
SOME SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION AS WELL. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE FORECAST
UNCHANGED...BUT THE CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY IN ANY SOLUTION IS
QUITE LOW. 20
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY. RIDGE
WINDS COULD BE GUSTY FROM THE EAST THIS MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL MEAN CONTINUED
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY
WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. 20
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 270957
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER FRIDAY AS THIS HIGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN. FOR
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY, ALONG WITH A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND THROUGH LABOR DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA, WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES IN
SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL
NV, WHILE 700 MB TEMPS REACH THEIR PEAK VALUES OF 12 TO 13 C
ACROSS THE RENO-TAHOE REGION. LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL.

ON FRIDAY, THE RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO FLATTEN OVER THE REGION AS
TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE, HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING HURRICANE MARIE IS LIKELY TO
SPREAD OVER THE REGION. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING HUMIDITY
ABOVE 90 PERCENT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER ALONG WITH DECENT UPWARD
MOTION IN THIS LAYER, THE RESULTANT CIRRUS DECK COULD BECOME
RATHER THICK BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FROM I-80 SOUTHWARD.
THEREFORE WE HAVE TRENDED MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER, NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS AIR MASS BELOW
500 MB REMAINS RATHER DRY WITH LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.
SOME INCREASE IN WEST WINDS IS EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50, WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. MJD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
WITH FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. OPERATIONAL MODELS
AND MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NOW KEEP THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
MARIE WELL OFF THE WEST COAST WITH ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
LIKELY TO AFFECT OUR AREA.

THE BEST FORCING WITH THE TROUGH REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH THE GEM IS TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF ON SATURDAY.
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
WINDS COULD BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED. SATURDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE BREEZIEST DAY...BUT SUNDAY COULD BE BREEZY AS WELL.
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE THE STRONGEST SATURDAY AND BY SUNDAY MOST
OF THE AREA WILL BE BEHIND A SURFACE COOL FRONT.

CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EXTENDED COULD AFFECT TEMPERATURES MORE THAN
WE ARE ACCOUNTING FOR AT THIS TIME. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LOOKS LIKE
IT MIGHT BE A BIT TOO WARM...SO BY SUNDAY/MONDAY WE ARE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE.

BY TUESDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS ECMWF HOLDS A FLAT RIDGE OVER
THE REGION WHILE GFS...AND GEM TO A LESSER EXTENT...BEGIN TO CARVE A
SECONDARY TROUGH SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION. GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE
SOME SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION AS WELL. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE FORECAST
UNCHANGED...BUT THE CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY IN ANY SOLUTION IS
QUITE LOW. 20
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY. RIDGE
WINDS COULD BE GUSTY FROM THE EAST THIS MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL MEAN CONTINUED
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY
WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. 20
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 270957
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER FRIDAY AS THIS HIGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN. FOR
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY, ALONG WITH A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND THROUGH LABOR DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA, WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES IN
SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL
NV, WHILE 700 MB TEMPS REACH THEIR PEAK VALUES OF 12 TO 13 C
ACROSS THE RENO-TAHOE REGION. LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL.

ON FRIDAY, THE RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO FLATTEN OVER THE REGION AS
TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE, HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING HURRICANE MARIE IS LIKELY TO
SPREAD OVER THE REGION. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING HUMIDITY
ABOVE 90 PERCENT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER ALONG WITH DECENT UPWARD
MOTION IN THIS LAYER, THE RESULTANT CIRRUS DECK COULD BECOME
RATHER THICK BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FROM I-80 SOUTHWARD.
THEREFORE WE HAVE TRENDED MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER, NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS AIR MASS BELOW
500 MB REMAINS RATHER DRY WITH LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.
SOME INCREASE IN WEST WINDS IS EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50, WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. MJD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
WITH FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. OPERATIONAL MODELS
AND MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NOW KEEP THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
MARIE WELL OFF THE WEST COAST WITH ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
LIKELY TO AFFECT OUR AREA.

THE BEST FORCING WITH THE TROUGH REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH THE GEM IS TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF ON SATURDAY.
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
WINDS COULD BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED. SATURDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE BREEZIEST DAY...BUT SUNDAY COULD BE BREEZY AS WELL.
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE THE STRONGEST SATURDAY AND BY SUNDAY MOST
OF THE AREA WILL BE BEHIND A SURFACE COOL FRONT.

CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EXTENDED COULD AFFECT TEMPERATURES MORE THAN
WE ARE ACCOUNTING FOR AT THIS TIME. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LOOKS LIKE
IT MIGHT BE A BIT TOO WARM...SO BY SUNDAY/MONDAY WE ARE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE.

BY TUESDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS ECMWF HOLDS A FLAT RIDGE OVER
THE REGION WHILE GFS...AND GEM TO A LESSER EXTENT...BEGIN TO CARVE A
SECONDARY TROUGH SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION. GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE
SOME SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION AS WELL. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE FORECAST
UNCHANGED...BUT THE CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY IN ANY SOLUTION IS
QUITE LOW. 20
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY. RIDGE
WINDS COULD BE GUSTY FROM THE EAST THIS MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL MEAN CONTINUED
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY
WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. 20
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 270957
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER FRIDAY AS THIS HIGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN. FOR
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY, ALONG WITH A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND THROUGH LABOR DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA, WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES IN
SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 3-5
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL
NV, WHILE 700 MB TEMPS REACH THEIR PEAK VALUES OF 12 TO 13 C
ACROSS THE RENO-TAHOE REGION. LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL.

ON FRIDAY, THE RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO FLATTEN OVER THE REGION AS
TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE, HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING HURRICANE MARIE IS LIKELY TO
SPREAD OVER THE REGION. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING HUMIDITY
ABOVE 90 PERCENT IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER ALONG WITH DECENT UPWARD
MOTION IN THIS LAYER, THE RESULTANT CIRRUS DECK COULD BECOME
RATHER THICK BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FROM I-80 SOUTHWARD.
THEREFORE WE HAVE TRENDED MAX TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER, NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AS AIR MASS BELOW
500 MB REMAINS RATHER DRY WITH LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.
SOME INCREASE IN WEST WINDS IS EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50, WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. MJD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
WITH FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. OPERATIONAL MODELS
AND MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NOW KEEP THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
MARIE WELL OFF THE WEST COAST WITH ONLY MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
LIKELY TO AFFECT OUR AREA.

THE BEST FORCING WITH THE TROUGH REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...
ALTHOUGH THE GEM IS TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF ON SATURDAY.
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.
WINDS COULD BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED. SATURDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE BREEZIEST DAY...BUT SUNDAY COULD BE BREEZY AS WELL.
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE THE STRONGEST SATURDAY AND BY SUNDAY MOST
OF THE AREA WILL BE BEHIND A SURFACE COOL FRONT.

CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EXTENDED COULD AFFECT TEMPERATURES MORE THAN
WE ARE ACCOUNTING FOR AT THIS TIME. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LOOKS LIKE
IT MIGHT BE A BIT TOO WARM...SO BY SUNDAY/MONDAY WE ARE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE.

BY TUESDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS ECMWF HOLDS A FLAT RIDGE OVER
THE REGION WHILE GFS...AND GEM TO A LESSER EXTENT...BEGIN TO CARVE A
SECONDARY TROUGH SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION. GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE
SOME SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION AS WELL. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE FORECAST
UNCHANGED...BUT THE CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY IN ANY SOLUTION IS
QUITE LOW. 20
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TODAY. RIDGE
WINDS COULD BE GUSTY FROM THE EAST THIS MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL MEAN CONTINUED
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY
WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. 20
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 262039
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
139 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK,
BRINGING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND, LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TRANQUIL WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. THE UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN NEVADA WILL MOVE TO THE ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING BETWEEN
THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT NEAR
AVERAGE. THURSDAY, AS THE RIDGE SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD HIGHS
WILL WARM AN ADDITIONAL 3-6 DEGREES WITH UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR
THE LOWER VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS.

LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES AND LENGTHENING NIGHTS (ABOUT 1 HOUR AND
45 MINUTES LONGER THAN LATE JUNE) WILL ALLOW VALLEYS TO RADIATE
WELL WITH COOL/CRISP MORNINGS. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
RIDGE FLATTENS FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPS OUT OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF THE TROUGH`S ARRIVAL. REMNANTS OF HURRICANE MARIE DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE OF CONCERN BY SATURDAY. THE BROAD TROUGH KEEPS MOST
OF THE LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE OUTSIDE OF THE REGION, WITH
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE GETTING SWEPT UP WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL JET. ONLY IMPACTS FROM THAT MOISTURE WILL BE SOME MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WORKS
INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA FOR THE WEEKEND.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING WINDS ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, THE UPPER
LEVEL JET ORIENTATION SHIFTS FROM W-TO-E TO A NW-TO-SE ORIENTATION
WHICH MAY LIMIT WIND SPEEDS. KEPT WINDS BREEZY ON SUNDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL AT LEAST KEEP THE MID SLOPES AND UPPER RIDGES BREEZY.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE BROAD
TROUGH EXITS THE REGION. DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT APPEARS
TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. ELW

&&

.AVIATION...
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE PATCHY
FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE MARTIS VALLEY NEAR KTRK. INCREASING WEST
TO EAST THERMAL GRADIENT ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW THE WESTERLY LATE
AFTERNOON WINDS TO RETURN. ELW

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 262039
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
139 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK,
BRINGING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND, LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TRANQUIL WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES. THE UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN NEVADA WILL MOVE TO THE ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING BETWEEN
THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT NEAR
AVERAGE. THURSDAY, AS THE RIDGE SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD HIGHS
WILL WARM AN ADDITIONAL 3-6 DEGREES WITH UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR
THE LOWER VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS.

LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES AND LENGTHENING NIGHTS (ABOUT 1 HOUR AND
45 MINUTES LONGER THAN LATE JUNE) WILL ALLOW VALLEYS TO RADIATE
WELL WITH COOL/CRISP MORNINGS. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
RIDGE FLATTENS FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPS OUT OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
TIMING OF THE TROUGH`S ARRIVAL. REMNANTS OF HURRICANE MARIE DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE OF CONCERN BY SATURDAY. THE BROAD TROUGH KEEPS MOST
OF THE LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE OUTSIDE OF THE REGION, WITH
ONLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE GETTING SWEPT UP WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL JET. ONLY IMPACTS FROM THAT MOISTURE WILL BE SOME MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FRIDAY BEFORE DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WORKS
INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA FOR THE WEEKEND.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING WINDS ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, THE UPPER
LEVEL JET ORIENTATION SHIFTS FROM W-TO-E TO A NW-TO-SE ORIENTATION
WHICH MAY LIMIT WIND SPEEDS. KEPT WINDS BREEZY ON SUNDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL AT LEAST KEEP THE MID SLOPES AND UPPER RIDGES BREEZY.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL
SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE BROAD
TROUGH EXITS THE REGION. DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT APPEARS
TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. ELW

&&

.AVIATION...
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE PATCHY
FOG LATE TONIGHT IN THE MARTIS VALLEY NEAR KTRK. INCREASING WEST
TO EAST THERMAL GRADIENT ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW THE WESTERLY LATE
AFTERNOON WINDS TO RETURN. ELW

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 260941
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
241 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NEVADA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
REBUILDS OVERHEAD, BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASED WINDS SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT COOLING TREND THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE UPPER LOW WHICH BROUGHT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
PARTS OF WESTERN NV AND THE TAHOE BASIN YESTERDAY IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NV THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD END THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN WESTERN NV, ALTHOUGH A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF HIGHWAY 95.
OTHERWISE, CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AROUND THIS LOW COMBINED WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE LIFTING UP TO NEAR 600-650 MB WILL LEAD TO
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL EDGE UPWARD TO THE MID 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 70S
FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS, ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WARMING WITH
MOST VALLEYS REACHING THE LOWER-MID 90S BY THURSDAY, ALONG WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT, WHEN SOME CIRRUS SHEARED OFF FROM THE
WEAKENING HURRICANE MARIE MAY REACH THE WESTERN US. MJD

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS CYCLE...AND
MAINLY JUST TO THE WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
AGAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST.
STILL...THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING A BIT HANDLING THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE MARIE AS IT LIFTS WNW ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC.

RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN FRIDAY AS LONG WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TWELVE HOURS AGO THE OPERATIONAL GFS FLIPPED
BACK TO A SOLUTION THAT DUG THIS TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH AND AGAIN
PICKED UP THE REMNANTS OF MARIE. NOW IT HAS GONE BACK TO ITS
SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE ECMWF WITH
THE TROUGH NOT DIGGING AS AGGRESSIVELY AND BYPASSING MOST OF THE
TROPICAL REMNANTS. THE GEM HAS STARTED TO TREND THIS WAY AS
WELL...BUT IS STILL A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE MORE SHALLOW...
BROADER TROUGH SOLUTION...BUT A FEW MEMBERS DO STILL TRY TO DROP A
DEEPER...SHARPER TROUGH INTO THE REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE
OPTED TO LEAVE PCPN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN
INCREASED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...BANKING ON MOST OF THE MOISTURE
BEING OF THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL VARIETY.

STRONG JET SUPPORT ALOFT AND A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD
HELP INCREASE WINDS SATURDAY. THIS MAY EXTEND INTO SUNDAY AS WELL
EVEN THOUGH THE JET ORIENTATION WILL BECOME MORE NW TO SE. INCREASED
WINDS A BIT FOR SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO JET SUPPORT. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
LIKELY TO TURN AROUND TO NORTH-NORTHEAST BY MONDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL WITH SFC BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY.
20

&&

.AVIATION...

PATCHY FOG IN SIERRA VALLEYS THAT PICKED UP RAIN YESTERDAY WILL
CREATE SOME LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH UPPER LOW
MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS NV TODAY WE SHOULD SEE VFR BY LATE
MORNING. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER THE FAR ERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST LOW LVL WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. BUILDING RIDGE LATE TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO
SHOW MORE ZEPHYR CHARACTERISTICS BY FRIDAY WITH INCREASED GUSTS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. 20

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 260941
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
241 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NEVADA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
REBUILDS OVERHEAD, BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASED WINDS SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT COOLING TREND THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE UPPER LOW WHICH BROUGHT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
PARTS OF WESTERN NV AND THE TAHOE BASIN YESTERDAY IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NV THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD END THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN WESTERN NV, ALTHOUGH A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF HIGHWAY 95.
OTHERWISE, CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AROUND THIS LOW COMBINED WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE LIFTING UP TO NEAR 600-650 MB WILL LEAD TO
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED FLAT CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL EDGE UPWARD TO THE MID 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 70S
FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS, ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WARMING WITH
MOST VALLEYS REACHING THE LOWER-MID 90S BY THURSDAY, ALONG WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT, WHEN SOME CIRRUS SHEARED OFF FROM THE
WEAKENING HURRICANE MARIE MAY REACH THE WESTERN US. MJD

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS CYCLE...AND
MAINLY JUST TO THE WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
AGAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST.
STILL...THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING A BIT HANDLING THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE MARIE AS IT LIFTS WNW ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC.

RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN FRIDAY AS LONG WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TWELVE HOURS AGO THE OPERATIONAL GFS FLIPPED
BACK TO A SOLUTION THAT DUG THIS TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH AND AGAIN
PICKED UP THE REMNANTS OF MARIE. NOW IT HAS GONE BACK TO ITS
SOLUTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE ECMWF WITH
THE TROUGH NOT DIGGING AS AGGRESSIVELY AND BYPASSING MOST OF THE
TROPICAL REMNANTS. THE GEM HAS STARTED TO TREND THIS WAY AS
WELL...BUT IS STILL A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE MORE SHALLOW...
BROADER TROUGH SOLUTION...BUT A FEW MEMBERS DO STILL TRY TO DROP A
DEEPER...SHARPER TROUGH INTO THE REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE
OPTED TO LEAVE PCPN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND MAINTAIN
INCREASED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...BANKING ON MOST OF THE MOISTURE
BEING OF THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL VARIETY.

STRONG JET SUPPORT ALOFT AND A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD
HELP INCREASE WINDS SATURDAY. THIS MAY EXTEND INTO SUNDAY AS WELL
EVEN THOUGH THE JET ORIENTATION WILL BECOME MORE NW TO SE. INCREASED
WINDS A BIT FOR SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO JET SUPPORT. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
LIKELY TO TURN AROUND TO NORTH-NORTHEAST BY MONDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST DROP TO
BELOW NORMAL WITH SFC BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY.
20

&&

.AVIATION...

PATCHY FOG IN SIERRA VALLEYS THAT PICKED UP RAIN YESTERDAY WILL
CREATE SOME LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH UPPER LOW
MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS NV TODAY WE SHOULD SEE VFR BY LATE
MORNING. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER THE FAR ERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST LOW LVL WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. BUILDING RIDGE LATE TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO
SHOW MORE ZEPHYR CHARACTERISTICS BY FRIDAY WITH INCREASED GUSTS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. 20

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 260357 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
856 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AROUND
THE RENO-TAHOE AREA THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM EARLIER PRODUCED HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ACCUMULATING PEA SIZE HAIL IN SOUTH LAKE TAHOE AROUND 6 PM THIS
EVENING. THERE WERE REPORTS OF SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
HAIL THAT MADE THE GROUND LOOK LIKE IT WAS COVERED WITH SNOW, BUT
IT WAS ACTUALLY ALL HAIL FROM THE THUNDERSTORM. THE SOUTH LAKE
TAHOE AIRPORT RECEIVED 0.71" OF RAINFALL, BUT THIS WAS ACTUALLY ON
THE EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FELL
EAST AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE SOUTH LAKE AREA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 159 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA
ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO EASTERN NEVADA. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH INCREASING WINDS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER NEAR THE NEVADA/OREGON BORDER WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE TROUGH AXIS HAS CREATED A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY NEAR AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 SO FAR. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH
INTO THE EVENING, EXPECT ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO SPREAD SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH. FOR MOST OF THE REGION, THE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR RATHER RUN OF THE MILL WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. HOWEVER, THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER`S MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES SOME UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
(AROUND 35 KTS) OVER CHURCHILL AND PERSHING COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THIS COULD LEAD TO STRONGER AND MORE LONG-LIVED
THUNDERSTORMS OUT IN THE BASIN AND RANGE INTO THIS EVENING IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP (CONVECTION STRUGGLING OUT THERE RIGHT NOW).

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA DRIES
OUT AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS INTO EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH AND AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE PACIFIC. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MODERATED SOMEWHAT WITH HIGHS REMAINING
AROUND AVERAGE BEFORE HEATING UP LATE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. SNYDER

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MAIN FORECAST STRUGGLE CONTINUES TO BE THE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN HOW
THE MODELS HANDLE REMNANTS OF MARIE. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS MODELS DO NOT HANDLE
TROPICAL REMNANTS WELL.

THE 12Z GFS HAS FOILED OUR FORECAST PLANS ONCE AGAIN. THE 0Z LOOKED
MORE LIKE THE PREVIOUS ECMWF WITH KEEPING THE TROPICAL REMNANTS
FARTHER WEST, BUT THE CURRENT 12Z GFS BRINGS TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON AGAIN. THE 12Z ECMWF
FORTUNATELY HAS STUCK WITH ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTION WITH KEEPING THE
MOISTURE WELL WEST OF THE COAST. EVEN IF THE GFS SOLUTION PANS OUT,
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, IF ANY OCCURS, WILL BE RIGHT ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER. KEPT SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ONLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN TROUGH DYNAMICS AND COLD POOL NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR NOW, BUT IF IT DIGS FURTHER SOUTH
THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD CHANGE. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
TROUGH ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS DISPLAYS MORE OF A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION OF THE JET
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A NW/SE ORIENTATION. BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD
RESULT IN FAIRLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80,
BUT PREDICTABILITY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS POINT WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE AS THE RIDGE HOLDS ON
THURSDAY...THEN WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS CLOUD
COVER INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ELW

AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
BASIN AND RANGE. CEILINGS COULD BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 5K FT...BUT THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE ALONG
WITH TURBULENCE AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.

WEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 KTS IN SOME AREAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST AND DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY...EXCEPT EARLY MORNING EASTERLY WINDS COULD BE
GUSTY OVER THE SIERRA. 20/ELW

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)











000
FXUS65 KREV 260357 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
856 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AROUND
THE RENO-TAHOE AREA THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM EARLIER PRODUCED HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ACCUMULATING PEA SIZE HAIL IN SOUTH LAKE TAHOE AROUND 6 PM THIS
EVENING. THERE WERE REPORTS OF SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
HAIL THAT MADE THE GROUND LOOK LIKE IT WAS COVERED WITH SNOW, BUT
IT WAS ACTUALLY ALL HAIL FROM THE THUNDERSTORM. THE SOUTH LAKE
TAHOE AIRPORT RECEIVED 0.71" OF RAINFALL, BUT THIS WAS ACTUALLY ON
THE EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FELL
EAST AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE SOUTH LAKE AREA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 159 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA
ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO EASTERN NEVADA. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH INCREASING WINDS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER NEAR THE NEVADA/OREGON BORDER WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE TROUGH AXIS HAS CREATED A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY NEAR AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 SO FAR. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH
INTO THE EVENING, EXPECT ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO SPREAD SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH. FOR MOST OF THE REGION, THE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR RATHER RUN OF THE MILL WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. HOWEVER, THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER`S MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES SOME UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
(AROUND 35 KTS) OVER CHURCHILL AND PERSHING COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THIS COULD LEAD TO STRONGER AND MORE LONG-LIVED
THUNDERSTORMS OUT IN THE BASIN AND RANGE INTO THIS EVENING IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP (CONVECTION STRUGGLING OUT THERE RIGHT NOW).

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA DRIES
OUT AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS INTO EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH AND AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE PACIFIC. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MODERATED SOMEWHAT WITH HIGHS REMAINING
AROUND AVERAGE BEFORE HEATING UP LATE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. SNYDER

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MAIN FORECAST STRUGGLE CONTINUES TO BE THE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN HOW
THE MODELS HANDLE REMNANTS OF MARIE. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS MODELS DO NOT HANDLE
TROPICAL REMNANTS WELL.

THE 12Z GFS HAS FOILED OUR FORECAST PLANS ONCE AGAIN. THE 0Z LOOKED
MORE LIKE THE PREVIOUS ECMWF WITH KEEPING THE TROPICAL REMNANTS
FARTHER WEST, BUT THE CURRENT 12Z GFS BRINGS TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON AGAIN. THE 12Z ECMWF
FORTUNATELY HAS STUCK WITH ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTION WITH KEEPING THE
MOISTURE WELL WEST OF THE COAST. EVEN IF THE GFS SOLUTION PANS OUT,
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, IF ANY OCCURS, WILL BE RIGHT ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER. KEPT SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ONLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN TROUGH DYNAMICS AND COLD POOL NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR NOW, BUT IF IT DIGS FURTHER SOUTH
THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD CHANGE. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
TROUGH ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS DISPLAYS MORE OF A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION OF THE JET
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A NW/SE ORIENTATION. BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD
RESULT IN FAIRLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80,
BUT PREDICTABILITY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS POINT WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE AS THE RIDGE HOLDS ON
THURSDAY...THEN WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS CLOUD
COVER INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ELW

AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
BASIN AND RANGE. CEILINGS COULD BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 5K FT...BUT THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE ALONG
WITH TURBULENCE AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.

WEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 KTS IN SOME AREAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST AND DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY...EXCEPT EARLY MORNING EASTERLY WINDS COULD BE
GUSTY OVER THE SIERRA. 20/ELW

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 260356 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
856 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AROUND
THE RENO-TAHOE AREA THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM EARLIER PRODUCED HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ACCUMULATING PEA SIZE HAIL IN SOUTH LAKE TAHOE AROUND 6 PM THIS
EVENING. THERE WERE REPORTS OF SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
HAIL THAT MADE THE GROUND LOOK LIKE IT WAS COVERED WITH SNOW, BUT
IT WAS ACTUALLY ALL HAIL FROM THE THUNDERSTORM. THE SOUTH LAKE
TAHOE AIRPORT RECIEVED 0.71" OF RAINFALL, BUT THIS WAS ACTUALLY ON
THE EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FELL
EAST AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE SOUTH LAKE AREA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 159 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA
ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO EASTERN NEVADA. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH INCREASING WINDS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER NEAR THE NEVADA/OREGON BORDER WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE TROUGH AXIS HAS CREATED A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY NEAR AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 SO FAR. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH
INTO THE EVENING, EXPECT ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO SPREAD SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH. FOR MOST OF THE REGION, THE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR RATHER RUN OF THE MILL WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. HOWEVER, THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER`S MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES SOME UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
(AROUND 35 KTS) OVER CHURCHILL AND PERSHING COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THIS COULD LEAD TO STRONGER AND MORE LONG-LIVED
THUNDERSTORMS OUT IN THE BASIN AND RANGE INTO THIS EVENING IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP (CONVECTION STRUGGLING OUT THERE RIGHT NOW).

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA DRIES
OUT AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS INTO EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH AND AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE PACIFIC. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MODERATED SOMEWHAT WITH HIGHS REMAINING
AROUND AVERAGE BEFORE HEATING UP LATE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. SNYDER

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MAIN FORECAST STRUGGLE CONTINUES TO BE THE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN HOW
THE MODELS HANDLE REMNANTS OF MARIE. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS MODELS DO NOT HANDLE
TROPICAL REMNANTS WELL.

THE 12Z GFS HAS FOILED OUR FORECAST PLANS ONCE AGAIN. THE 0Z LOOKED
MORE LIKE THE PREVIOUS ECMWF WITH KEEPING THE TROPICAL REMNANTS
FARTHER WEST, BUT THE CURRENT 12Z GFS BRINGS TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON AGAIN. THE 12Z ECMWF
FORTUNATELY HAS STUCK WITH ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTION WITH KEEPING THE
MOISTURE WELL WEST OF THE COAST. EVEN IF THE GFS SOLUTION PANS OUT,
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, IF ANY OCCURS, WILL BE RIGHT ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER. KEPT SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ONLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN TROUGH DYNAMICS AND COLD POOL NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR NOW, BUT IF IT DIGS FURTHER SOUTH
THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD CHANGE. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
TROUGH ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS DISPLAYS MORE OF A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION OF THE JET
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A NW/SE ORIENTATION. BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD
RESULT IN FAIRLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80,
BUT PREDICTABILITY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS POINT WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE AS THE RIDGE HOLDS ON
THURSDAY...THEN WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS CLOUD
COVER INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ELW

AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
BASIN AND RANGE. CEILINGS COULD BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 5K FT...BUT THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE ALONG
WITH TURBULENCE AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.

WEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 KTS IN SOME AREAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST AND DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY...EXCEPT EARLY MORNING EASTERLY WINDS COULD BE
GUSTY OVER THE SIERRA. 20/ELW

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 260356 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
856 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AROUND
THE RENO-TAHOE AREA THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM EARLIER PRODUCED HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ACCUMULATING PEA SIZE HAIL IN SOUTH LAKE TAHOE AROUND 6 PM THIS
EVENING. THERE WERE REPORTS OF SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
HAIL THAT MADE THE GROUND LOOK LIKE IT WAS COVERED WITH SNOW, BUT
IT WAS ACTUALLY ALL HAIL FROM THE THUNDERSTORM. THE SOUTH LAKE
TAHOE AIRPORT RECIEVED 0.71" OF RAINFALL, BUT THIS WAS ACTUALLY ON
THE EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FELL
EAST AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE SOUTH LAKE AREA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 159 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA
ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO EASTERN NEVADA. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH INCREASING WINDS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER NEAR THE NEVADA/OREGON BORDER WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE TROUGH AXIS HAS CREATED A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY NEAR AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 SO FAR. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH
INTO THE EVENING, EXPECT ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO SPREAD SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH. FOR MOST OF THE REGION, THE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR RATHER RUN OF THE MILL WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. HOWEVER, THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER`S MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES SOME UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
(AROUND 35 KTS) OVER CHURCHILL AND PERSHING COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THIS COULD LEAD TO STRONGER AND MORE LONG-LIVED
THUNDERSTORMS OUT IN THE BASIN AND RANGE INTO THIS EVENING IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP (CONVECTION STRUGGLING OUT THERE RIGHT NOW).

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA DRIES
OUT AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS INTO EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH AND AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE PACIFIC. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MODERATED SOMEWHAT WITH HIGHS REMAINING
AROUND AVERAGE BEFORE HEATING UP LATE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. SNYDER

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MAIN FORECAST STRUGGLE CONTINUES TO BE THE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN HOW
THE MODELS HANDLE REMNANTS OF MARIE. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS MODELS DO NOT HANDLE
TROPICAL REMNANTS WELL.

THE 12Z GFS HAS FOILED OUR FORECAST PLANS ONCE AGAIN. THE 0Z LOOKED
MORE LIKE THE PREVIOUS ECMWF WITH KEEPING THE TROPICAL REMNANTS
FARTHER WEST, BUT THE CURRENT 12Z GFS BRINGS TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON AGAIN. THE 12Z ECMWF
FORTUNATELY HAS STUCK WITH ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTION WITH KEEPING THE
MOISTURE WELL WEST OF THE COAST. EVEN IF THE GFS SOLUTION PANS OUT,
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, IF ANY OCCURS, WILL BE RIGHT ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER. KEPT SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ONLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN TROUGH DYNAMICS AND COLD POOL NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR NOW, BUT IF IT DIGS FURTHER SOUTH
THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD CHANGE. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
TROUGH ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS DISPLAYS MORE OF A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION OF THE JET
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A NW/SE ORIENTATION. BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD
RESULT IN FAIRLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80,
BUT PREDICTABILITY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS POINT WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE AS THE RIDGE HOLDS ON
THURSDAY...THEN WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS CLOUD
COVER INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ELW

AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
BASIN AND RANGE. CEILINGS COULD BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 5K FT...BUT THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE ALONG
WITH TURBULENCE AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.

WEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 KTS IN SOME AREAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST AND DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY...EXCEPT EARLY MORNING EASTERLY WINDS COULD BE
GUSTY OVER THE SIERRA. 20/ELW

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 252059
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
159 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA
ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO EASTERN NEVADA. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH INCREASING WINDS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER NEAR THE NEVADA/OREGON BORDER WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE TROUGH AXIS HAS CREATED A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY NEAR AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 SO FAR. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH
INTO THE EVENING, EXPECT ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO SPREAD SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH. FOR MOST OF THE REGION, THE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR RATHER RUN OF THE MILL WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. HOWEVER, THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER`S MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES SOME UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
(AROUND 35 KTS) OVER CHURCHILL AND PERSHING COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THIS COULD LEAD TO STRONGER AND MORE LONG-LIVED
THUNDERSTORMS OUT IN THE BASIN AND RANGE INTO THIS EVENING IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP (CONVECTION STRUGGLING OUT THERE RIGHT NOW).

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA DRIES
OUT AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS INTO EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH AND AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE PACIFIC. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MODERATED SOMEWHAT WITH HIGHS REMAINING
AROUND AVERAGE BEFORE HEATING UP LATE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MAIN FORECAST STRUGGLE CONTINUES TO BE THE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN HOW
THE MODELS HANDLE REMNANTS OF MARIE. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS MODELS DO NOT HANDLE
TROPICAL REMNANTS WELL.

THE 12Z GFS HAS FOILED OUR FORECAST PLANS ONCE AGAIN. THE 0Z LOOKED
MORE LIKE THE PREVIOUS ECMWF WITH KEEPING THE TROPICAL REMNANTS
FARTHER WEST, BUT THE CURRENT 12Z GFS BRINGS TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON AGAIN. THE 12Z ECMWF
FORTUNATELY HAS STUCK WITH ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTION WITH KEEPING THE
MOISTURE WELL WEST OF THE COAST. EVEN IF THE GFS SOLUTION PANS OUT,
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, IF ANY OCCURS, WILL BE RIGHT ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER. KEPT SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ONLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN TROUGH DYNAMICS AND COLD POOL NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR NOW, BUT IF IT DIGS FURTHER SOUTH
THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD CHANGE. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
TROUGH ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS DISPLAYS MORE OF A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION OF THE JET
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A NW/SE ORIENTATION. BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD
RESULT IN FAIRLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80,
BUT PREDICTABILITY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS POINT WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE AS THE RIDGE HOLDS ON
THURSDAY...THEN WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS CLOUD
COVER INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ELW

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
BASIN AND RANGE. CEILINGS COULD BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 5K FT...BUT THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE ALONG
WITH TURBULENCE AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.

WEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 KTS IN SOME AREAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST AND DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY...EXCEPT EARLY MORNING EASTERLY WINDS COULD BE
GUSTY OVER THE SIERRA. 20/ELW

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 252059
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
159 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA
ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO EASTERN NEVADA. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH INCREASING WINDS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER NEAR THE NEVADA/OREGON BORDER WITH A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE TROUGH AXIS HAS CREATED A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY NEAR AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 SO FAR. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH
INTO THE EVENING, EXPECT ISOLATED TO LOW-END SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO SPREAD SOUTH WITH THE TROUGH. FOR MOST OF THE REGION, THE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR RATHER RUN OF THE MILL WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. HOWEVER, THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER`S MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES SOME UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
(AROUND 35 KTS) OVER CHURCHILL AND PERSHING COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THIS COULD LEAD TO STRONGER AND MORE LONG-LIVED
THUNDERSTORMS OUT IN THE BASIN AND RANGE INTO THIS EVENING IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP (CONVECTION STRUGGLING OUT THERE RIGHT NOW).

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA DRIES
OUT AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS INTO EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH AND AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE PACIFIC. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MODERATED SOMEWHAT WITH HIGHS REMAINING
AROUND AVERAGE BEFORE HEATING UP LATE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
MAIN FORECAST STRUGGLE CONTINUES TO BE THE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN HOW
THE MODELS HANDLE REMNANTS OF MARIE. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS MODELS DO NOT HANDLE
TROPICAL REMNANTS WELL.

THE 12Z GFS HAS FOILED OUR FORECAST PLANS ONCE AGAIN. THE 0Z LOOKED
MORE LIKE THE PREVIOUS ECMWF WITH KEEPING THE TROPICAL REMNANTS
FARTHER WEST, BUT THE CURRENT 12Z GFS BRINGS TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON AGAIN. THE 12Z ECMWF
FORTUNATELY HAS STUCK WITH ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTION WITH KEEPING THE
MOISTURE WELL WEST OF THE COAST. EVEN IF THE GFS SOLUTION PANS OUT,
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, IF ANY OCCURS, WILL BE RIGHT ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER. KEPT SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ONLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN TROUGH DYNAMICS AND COLD POOL NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR NOW, BUT IF IT DIGS FURTHER SOUTH
THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD CHANGE. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
TROUGH ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS DISPLAYS MORE OF A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION OF THE JET
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A NW/SE ORIENTATION. BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD
RESULT IN FAIRLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80,
BUT PREDICTABILITY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS POINT WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE AS THE RIDGE HOLDS ON
THURSDAY...THEN WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS CLOUD
COVER INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ELW

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
BASIN AND RANGE. CEILINGS COULD BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 5K FT...BUT THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE ALONG
WITH TURBULENCE AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.

WEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 KTS IN SOME AREAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST AND DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY...EXCEPT EARLY MORNING EASTERLY WINDS COULD BE
GUSTY OVER THE SIERRA. 20/ELW

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 252000
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
100 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 80 IN
EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME WESTERN NEVADA A BIT EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED SO I UPDATED TO DRAG ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
TO NEAR HIGHWAY 50 WEST OF FALLON THROUGH 00Z. SNYDER

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA TODAY, MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 50. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS PERSHING AND CHURCHILL
COUNTIES. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING
SOUTH OVER EASTERN OREGON. FORCING FROM A JET SEGMENT ALONG THE
BASE OF THE LOW IS EVIDENT FROM COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY
WITH RADAR ECHOES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY INTO
HUMBOLDT COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SPREAD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS PERSHING COUNTY. BY LATE MORNING,
DYNAMIC FORCING AND THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR
PERSHING COUNTY WHICH WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO CHURCHILL COUNTY BY THE AFTERNOON.
FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT, INSTABILITY IS
NOT AS IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.

A WEAK FRONT TUESDAY MORNING WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW WHICH
WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST. COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE REGION BUT OVERALL EXPECTING
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEVADA FALLING A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A MORE NOTICEABLE WARM-UP WILL
OCCUR BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK
INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. FUENTES

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
CYCLE...MOSTLY TO REMOVE THE SMALL POP WE HAD IN FOR SATURDAY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN CWA AND TO ADJUST SKY COVER A BIT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE MARIE AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NW ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE THE ECMWF IN KEEPING THE
TROPICAL REMNANTS FARTHER WEST AS THE RIDGE THAT IS IN PLACE EARLY
IN THE FORECAST SHOWS SIGNS OF FLATTENING. PREVIOUSLY THE GFS WAS
DIGGING A VIGOROUS TROUGH INTO THE ERN PACIFIC. NOW...EVEN THOUGH
THE TROUGH IS STILL THERE...IT IS NOT DIGGING AS FAR SOUTH. THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LARGELY AGREE WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE
OUTLIER NOW SEEMS TO BE THE GEM. IT HOLDS A SHARPER RIDGE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND THIS ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO DIG
FARTHER SOUTH AND PICK UP THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. IT
HAS SOME WEAK SUPPORT FROM A FEW GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES...ALONG WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF...SLIDE THE
MOST ENERGETIC PART OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING SIPHONED OFF
THE FORMER TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH LIMITED FORCING WE DO NOT SEE...AT THIS
TIME...CAUSE FOR HOLDING ON TO THE LOW POPS. THIS COULD CHANGE IF
TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH.

THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH AND PRESENCE OF THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
TO THE NORTH MAY KEEP WINDS FROM GETTING OVERLY STRONG THIS WEEKEND.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE AS THE RIDGE HOLDS ON
THURSDAY...THEN REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
UNLESS CLOUD COVER BECOMES THICKER THAN FORECAST.

OVERALL...CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THAT IS A REFLECTION OF MODELS NOT BEING ABLE TO HANDLE TROPICAL
REMNANTS VERY WELL. 20

AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH A SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTH TODAY THERE SHOULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER THE BASIN AND RANGE...BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CEILINGS
COULD BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 5K FT...BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE ALONG WITH TURBULENCE AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.

SURFACE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 KTS IN SOME AREAS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE MOST AREAS. LIGHT
WINDS CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY...EXCEPT EARLY MORNING EASTERLY WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY OVER THE SIERRA. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 252000
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
100 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 80 IN
EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME WESTERN NEVADA A BIT EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED SO I UPDATED TO DRAG ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
TO NEAR HIGHWAY 50 WEST OF FALLON THROUGH 00Z. SNYDER

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA TODAY, MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 50. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS PERSHING AND CHURCHILL
COUNTIES. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING
SOUTH OVER EASTERN OREGON. FORCING FROM A JET SEGMENT ALONG THE
BASE OF THE LOW IS EVIDENT FROM COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY
WITH RADAR ECHOES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY INTO
HUMBOLDT COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SPREAD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS PERSHING COUNTY. BY LATE MORNING,
DYNAMIC FORCING AND THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR
PERSHING COUNTY WHICH WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO CHURCHILL COUNTY BY THE AFTERNOON.
FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT, INSTABILITY IS
NOT AS IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.

A WEAK FRONT TUESDAY MORNING WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW WHICH
WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST. COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE REGION BUT OVERALL EXPECTING
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEVADA FALLING A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A MORE NOTICEABLE WARM-UP WILL
OCCUR BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK
INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. FUENTES

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
CYCLE...MOSTLY TO REMOVE THE SMALL POP WE HAD IN FOR SATURDAY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN CWA AND TO ADJUST SKY COVER A BIT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE MARIE AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NW ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE THE ECMWF IN KEEPING THE
TROPICAL REMNANTS FARTHER WEST AS THE RIDGE THAT IS IN PLACE EARLY
IN THE FORECAST SHOWS SIGNS OF FLATTENING. PREVIOUSLY THE GFS WAS
DIGGING A VIGOROUS TROUGH INTO THE ERN PACIFIC. NOW...EVEN THOUGH
THE TROUGH IS STILL THERE...IT IS NOT DIGGING AS FAR SOUTH. THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LARGELY AGREE WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE
OUTLIER NOW SEEMS TO BE THE GEM. IT HOLDS A SHARPER RIDGE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND THIS ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO DIG
FARTHER SOUTH AND PICK UP THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. IT
HAS SOME WEAK SUPPORT FROM A FEW GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES...ALONG WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF...SLIDE THE
MOST ENERGETIC PART OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING SIPHONED OFF
THE FORMER TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH LIMITED FORCING WE DO NOT SEE...AT THIS
TIME...CAUSE FOR HOLDING ON TO THE LOW POPS. THIS COULD CHANGE IF
TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH.

THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH AND PRESENCE OF THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
TO THE NORTH MAY KEEP WINDS FROM GETTING OVERLY STRONG THIS WEEKEND.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE AS THE RIDGE HOLDS ON
THURSDAY...THEN REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
UNLESS CLOUD COVER BECOMES THICKER THAN FORECAST.

OVERALL...CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THAT IS A REFLECTION OF MODELS NOT BEING ABLE TO HANDLE TROPICAL
REMNANTS VERY WELL. 20

AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH A SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTH TODAY THERE SHOULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER THE BASIN AND RANGE...BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CEILINGS
COULD BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 5K FT...BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE ALONG WITH TURBULENCE AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.

SURFACE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 KTS IN SOME AREAS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE MOST AREAS. LIGHT
WINDS CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY...EXCEPT EARLY MORNING EASTERLY WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY OVER THE SIERRA. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 251656
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
956 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO SLOW THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. JET FORCING WITH THE INCOMING UPPER LOW IS MOVING
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS MORNING AS EVIDENCED BY THE MID-HIGH
CLOUDS. WITH THE JET FORCING MOVING SOUTH, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE THE DEFORMATION
AXIS OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST
LASSEN COUNTY AND NORTHERN WASHOE/PERSHING COUNTIES. THE AXIS WILL
SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA WHICH WILL AID
SCATTERED CONVECTION GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF PYRAMID LAKE.
ELSEWHERE, AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY LINKED
AND FORM FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SNYDER

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA TODAY, MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 50.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS PERSHING AND
CHURCHILL COUNTIES. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS UPPER LOW
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION IS QUITE ENERGETIC THIS MORNING.
WILL UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED STORMS THIS MORNING NORTH OF A
SUSANVILLE TO LOVELOCK LINE...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORNING
STORMS ARE NORTH OF GERLACH. STORMS ARE MOVING FAIRLY FAST SO
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAIN EXPECTED EARLY TODAY. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY EARLY TODAY AND THIS COULD HAVE AN
IMPACT ON BURNING MAN ACTIVITIES NORTHEAST OF GERLACH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING
SOUTH OVER EASTERN OREGON. FORCING FROM A JET SEGMENT ALONG THE
BASE OF THE LOW IS EVIDENT FROM COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY
WITH RADAR ECHOES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY INTO
HUMBOLDT COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SPREAD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS PERSHING COUNTY. BY LATE MORNING,
DYNAMIC FORCING AND THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR
PERSHING COUNTY WHICH WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO CHURCHILL COUNTY BY THE AFTERNOON.
FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT, INSTABILITY IS
NOT AS IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.

A WEAK FRONT TUESDAY MORNING WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW WHICH
WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST. COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE REGION BUT OVERALL EXPECTING
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEVADA FALLING A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A MORE NOTICEABLE WARM-UP WILL
OCCUR BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK
INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. FUENTES

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
CYCLE...MOSTLY TO REMOVE THE SMALL POP WE HAD IN FOR SATURDAY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN CWA AND TO ADJUST SKY COVER A BIT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE MARIE AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NW ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE THE ECMWF IN KEEPING THE
TROPICAL REMNANTS FARTHER WEST AS THE RIDGE THAT IS IN PLACE EARLY
IN THE FORECAST SHOWS SIGNS OF FLATTENING. PREVIOUSLY THE GFS WAS
DIGGING A VIGOROUS TROUGH INTO THE ERN PACIFIC. NOW...EVEN THOUGH
THE TROUGH IS STILL THERE...IT IS NOT DIGGING AS FAR SOUTH. THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LARGELY AGREE WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE
OUTLIER NOW SEEMS TO BE THE GEM. IT HOLDS A SHARPER RIDGE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND THIS ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO DIG
FARTHER SOUTH AND PICK UP THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. IT
HAS SOME WEAK SUPPORT FROM A FEW GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES...ALONG WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF...SLIDE THE
MOST ENERGETIC PART OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING SIPHONED OFF
THE FORMER TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH LIMITED FORCING WE DO NOT SEE...AT THIS
TIME...CAUSE FOR HOLDING ON TO THE LOW POPS. THIS COULD CHANGE IF
TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH.

THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH AND PRESENCE OF THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
TO THE NORTH MAY KEEP WINDS FROM GETTING OVERLY STRONG THIS WEEKEND.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE AS THE RIDGE HOLDS ON
THURSDAY...THEN REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
UNLESS CLOUD COVER BECOMES THICKER THAN FORECAST.

OVERALL...CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THAT IS A REFLECTION OF MODELS NOT BEING ABLE TO HANDLE TROPICAL
REMNANTS VERY WELL. 20

AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH A SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTH TODAY THERE SHOULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER THE BASIN AND RANGE...BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CEILINGS
COULD BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 5K FT...BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE ALONG WITH TURBULENCE AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.

SURFACE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 KTS IN SOME AREAS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE MOST AREAS. LIGHT
WINDS CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY...EXCEPT EARLY MORNING EASTERLY WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY OVER THE SIERRA. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 251656
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
956 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO SLOW THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. JET FORCING WITH THE INCOMING UPPER LOW IS MOVING
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS MORNING AS EVIDENCED BY THE MID-HIGH
CLOUDS. WITH THE JET FORCING MOVING SOUTH, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE THE DEFORMATION
AXIS OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST
LASSEN COUNTY AND NORTHERN WASHOE/PERSHING COUNTIES. THE AXIS WILL
SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA WHICH WILL AID
SCATTERED CONVECTION GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF PYRAMID LAKE.
ELSEWHERE, AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY LINKED
AND FORM FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SNYDER

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA TODAY, MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 50.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS PERSHING AND
CHURCHILL COUNTIES. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS UPPER LOW
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION IS QUITE ENERGETIC THIS MORNING.
WILL UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED STORMS THIS MORNING NORTH OF A
SUSANVILLE TO LOVELOCK LINE...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORNING
STORMS ARE NORTH OF GERLACH. STORMS ARE MOVING FAIRLY FAST SO
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAIN EXPECTED EARLY TODAY. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY EARLY TODAY AND THIS COULD HAVE AN
IMPACT ON BURNING MAN ACTIVITIES NORTHEAST OF GERLACH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING
SOUTH OVER EASTERN OREGON. FORCING FROM A JET SEGMENT ALONG THE
BASE OF THE LOW IS EVIDENT FROM COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY
WITH RADAR ECHOES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY INTO
HUMBOLDT COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SPREAD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS PERSHING COUNTY. BY LATE MORNING,
DYNAMIC FORCING AND THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR
PERSHING COUNTY WHICH WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO CHURCHILL COUNTY BY THE AFTERNOON.
FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT, INSTABILITY IS
NOT AS IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.

A WEAK FRONT TUESDAY MORNING WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW WHICH
WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST. COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE REGION BUT OVERALL EXPECTING
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEVADA FALLING A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A MORE NOTICEABLE WARM-UP WILL
OCCUR BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK
INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. FUENTES

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
CYCLE...MOSTLY TO REMOVE THE SMALL POP WE HAD IN FOR SATURDAY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN CWA AND TO ADJUST SKY COVER A BIT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE MARIE AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NW ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE THE ECMWF IN KEEPING THE
TROPICAL REMNANTS FARTHER WEST AS THE RIDGE THAT IS IN PLACE EARLY
IN THE FORECAST SHOWS SIGNS OF FLATTENING. PREVIOUSLY THE GFS WAS
DIGGING A VIGOROUS TROUGH INTO THE ERN PACIFIC. NOW...EVEN THOUGH
THE TROUGH IS STILL THERE...IT IS NOT DIGGING AS FAR SOUTH. THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LARGELY AGREE WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE
OUTLIER NOW SEEMS TO BE THE GEM. IT HOLDS A SHARPER RIDGE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND THIS ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO DIG
FARTHER SOUTH AND PICK UP THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. IT
HAS SOME WEAK SUPPORT FROM A FEW GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES...ALONG WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF...SLIDE THE
MOST ENERGETIC PART OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING SIPHONED OFF
THE FORMER TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH LIMITED FORCING WE DO NOT SEE...AT THIS
TIME...CAUSE FOR HOLDING ON TO THE LOW POPS. THIS COULD CHANGE IF
TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH.

THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH AND PRESENCE OF THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
TO THE NORTH MAY KEEP WINDS FROM GETTING OVERLY STRONG THIS WEEKEND.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE AS THE RIDGE HOLDS ON
THURSDAY...THEN REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
UNLESS CLOUD COVER BECOMES THICKER THAN FORECAST.

OVERALL...CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THAT IS A REFLECTION OF MODELS NOT BEING ABLE TO HANDLE TROPICAL
REMNANTS VERY WELL. 20

AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH A SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTH TODAY THERE SHOULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER THE BASIN AND RANGE...BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CEILINGS
COULD BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 5K FT...BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE ALONG WITH TURBULENCE AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.

SURFACE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 KTS IN SOME AREAS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE MOST AREAS. LIGHT
WINDS CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY...EXCEPT EARLY MORNING EASTERLY WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY OVER THE SIERRA. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 251234
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
534 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS UPPER LOW
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION IS QUITE ENERGETIC THIS MORNING.
WILL UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED STORMS THIS MORNING NORTH OF A
SUSANVILLE TO LOVELOCK LINE...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORNING
STORMS ARE NORTH OF GERLACH. STORMS ARE MOVING FAIRLY FAST SO
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAIN EXPECTED EARLY TODAY. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY EARLY TODAY AND THIS COULD HAVE AN
IMPACT ON BURNING MAN ACTIVITIES NORTHEAST OF GERLACH.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA TODAY MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 50. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING
SOUTH OVER EASTERN OREGON. FORCING FROM A JET SEGMENT ALONG THE BASE
OF THE LOW IS EVIDENT FROM COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY WITH
RADAR ECHOES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY INTO HUMBOLDT
COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS
MORNING ACROSS PERSHING COUNTY. BY LATE MORNING, DYNAMIC FORCING AND
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR PERSHING COUNTY WHICH WILL
PROVIDE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO
CHURCHILL COUNTY BY THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE SIERRA
AND SIERRA FRONT, INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.

A WEAK FRONT TUESDAY MORNING WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW WHICH
WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST. COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE REGION BUT OVERALL EXPECTING
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEVADA FALLING A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A MORE NOTICEABLE WARM-UP WILL
OCCUR BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK
INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. FUENTES

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
CYCLE...MOSTLY TO REMOVE THE SMALL POP WE HAD IN FOR SATURDAY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN CWA AND TO ADJUST SKY COVER A BIT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE MARIE AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NW ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE THE ECMWF IN KEEPING THE
TROPICAL REMNANTS FARTHER WEST AS THE RIDGE THAT IS IN PLACE EARLY
IN THE FORECAST SHOWS SIGNS OF FLATTENING. PREVIOUSLY THE GFS WAS
DIGGING A VIGOROUS TROUGH INTO THE ERN PACIFIC. NOW...EVEN THOUGH
THE TROUGH IS STILL THERE...IT IS NOT DIGGING AS FAR SOUTH. THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LARGELY AGREE WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE
OUTLIER NOW SEEMS TO BE THE GEM. IT HOLDS A SHARPER RIDGE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND THIS ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO DIG
FARTHER SOUTH AND PICK UP THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. IT
HAS SOME WEAK SUPPORT FROM A FEW GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES...ALONG WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF...SLIDE THE
MOST ENERGETIC PART OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING SIPHONED OFF
THE FORMER TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH LIMITED FORCING WE DO NOT SEE...AT THIS
TIME...CAUSE FOR HOLDING ON TO THE LOW POPS. THIS COULD CHANGE IF
TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH.

THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH AND PRESENCE OF THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
TO THE NORTH MAY KEEP WINDS FROM GETTING OVERLY STRONG THIS WEEKEND.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE AS THE RIDGE HOLDS ON
THURSDAY...THEN REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
UNLESS CLOUD COVER BECOMES THICKER THAN FORECAST.

OVERALL...CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THAT IS A REFLECTION OF MODELS NOT BEING ABLE TO HANDLE TROPICAL
REMNANTS VERY WELL. 20

AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH A SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTH TODAY THERE SHOULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER THE BASIN AND RANGE...BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CEILINGS
COULD BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 5K FT...BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE ALONG WITH TURBULENCE AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.

SURFACE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 KTS IN SOME AREAS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE MOST AREAS. LIGHT
WINDS CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY...EXCEPT EARLY MORNING EASTERLY WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY OVER THE SIERRA. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 251234
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
534 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS UPPER LOW
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION IS QUITE ENERGETIC THIS MORNING.
WILL UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED STORMS THIS MORNING NORTH OF A
SUSANVILLE TO LOVELOCK LINE...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORNING
STORMS ARE NORTH OF GERLACH. STORMS ARE MOVING FAIRLY FAST SO
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAIN EXPECTED EARLY TODAY. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY EARLY TODAY AND THIS COULD HAVE AN
IMPACT ON BURNING MAN ACTIVITIES NORTHEAST OF GERLACH.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA TODAY MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 50. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING
SOUTH OVER EASTERN OREGON. FORCING FROM A JET SEGMENT ALONG THE BASE
OF THE LOW IS EVIDENT FROM COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY WITH
RADAR ECHOES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY INTO HUMBOLDT
COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS
MORNING ACROSS PERSHING COUNTY. BY LATE MORNING, DYNAMIC FORCING AND
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR PERSHING COUNTY WHICH WILL
PROVIDE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO
CHURCHILL COUNTY BY THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE SIERRA
AND SIERRA FRONT, INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.

A WEAK FRONT TUESDAY MORNING WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW WHICH
WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST. COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE REGION BUT OVERALL EXPECTING
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEVADA FALLING A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A MORE NOTICEABLE WARM-UP WILL
OCCUR BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK
INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. FUENTES

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
CYCLE...MOSTLY TO REMOVE THE SMALL POP WE HAD IN FOR SATURDAY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN CWA AND TO ADJUST SKY COVER A BIT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE MARIE AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NW ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE THE ECMWF IN KEEPING THE
TROPICAL REMNANTS FARTHER WEST AS THE RIDGE THAT IS IN PLACE EARLY
IN THE FORECAST SHOWS SIGNS OF FLATTENING. PREVIOUSLY THE GFS WAS
DIGGING A VIGOROUS TROUGH INTO THE ERN PACIFIC. NOW...EVEN THOUGH
THE TROUGH IS STILL THERE...IT IS NOT DIGGING AS FAR SOUTH. THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LARGELY AGREE WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE
OUTLIER NOW SEEMS TO BE THE GEM. IT HOLDS A SHARPER RIDGE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND THIS ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO DIG
FARTHER SOUTH AND PICK UP THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. IT
HAS SOME WEAK SUPPORT FROM A FEW GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES...ALONG WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF...SLIDE THE
MOST ENERGETIC PART OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING SIPHONED OFF
THE FORMER TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH LIMITED FORCING WE DO NOT SEE...AT THIS
TIME...CAUSE FOR HOLDING ON TO THE LOW POPS. THIS COULD CHANGE IF
TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH.

THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH AND PRESENCE OF THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
TO THE NORTH MAY KEEP WINDS FROM GETTING OVERLY STRONG THIS WEEKEND.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE AS THE RIDGE HOLDS ON
THURSDAY...THEN REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
UNLESS CLOUD COVER BECOMES THICKER THAN FORECAST.

OVERALL...CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THAT IS A REFLECTION OF MODELS NOT BEING ABLE TO HANDLE TROPICAL
REMNANTS VERY WELL. 20

AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH A SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTH TODAY THERE SHOULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER THE BASIN AND RANGE...BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CEILINGS
COULD BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 5K FT...BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE ALONG WITH TURBULENCE AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.

SURFACE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 KTS IN SOME AREAS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE MOST AREAS. LIGHT
WINDS CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY...EXCEPT EARLY MORNING EASTERLY WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY OVER THE SIERRA. 20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 250911
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
211 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA TODAY MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 50. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING
SOUTH OVER EASTERN OREGON. FORCING FROM A JET SEGMENT ALONG THE BASE
OF THE LOW IS EVIDENT FROM COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY WITH
RADAR ECHOES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY INTO HUMBOLDT
COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS
MORNING ACROSS PERSHING COUNTY. BY LATE MORNING, DYNAMIC FORCING AND
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR PERSHING COUNTY WHICH WILL
PROVIDE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO
CHURCHILL COUNTY BY THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE SIERRA
AND SIERRA FRONT, INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.

A WEAK FRONT TUESDAY MORNING WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW WHICH
WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST. COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE REGION BUT OVERALL EXPECTING
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEVADA FALLING A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A MORE NOTICEABLE WARM-UP WILL
OCCUR BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK
INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
CYCLE...MOSTLY TO REMOVE THE SMALL POP WE HAD IN FOR SATURDAY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN CWA AND TO ADJUST SKY COVER A BIT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE MARIE AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NW ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE THE ECMWF IN KEEPING THE
TROPICAL REMNANTS FARTHER WEST AS THE RIDGE THAT IS IN PLACE EARLY
IN THE FORECAST SHOWS SIGNS OF FLATTENING. PREVIOUSLY THE GFS WAS
DIGGING A VIGOROUS TROUGH INTO THE ERN PACIFIC. NOW...EVEN THOUGH
THE TROUGH IS STILL THERE...IT IS NOT DIGGING AS FAR SOUTH. THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LARGELY AGREE WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE
OUTLIER NOW SEEMS TO BE THE GEM. IT HOLDS A SHARPER RIDGE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND THIS ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO DIG
FARTHER SOUTH AND PICK UP THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. IT
HAS SOME WEAK SUPPORT FROM A FEW GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES...ALONG WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF...SLIDE THE
MOST ENERGETIC PART OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING SIPHONED OFF
THE FORMER TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH LIMITED FORCING WE DO NOT SEE...AT THIS
TIME...CAUSE FOR HOLDING ON TO THE LOW POPS. THIS COULD CHANGE IF
TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH.

THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH AND PRESENCE OF THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
TO THE NORTH MAY KEEP WINDS FROM GETTING OVERLY STRONG THIS WEEKEND.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE AS THE RIDGE HOLDS ON
THURSDAY...THEN REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
UNLESS CLOUD COVER BECOMES THICKER THAN FORECAST.

OVERALL...CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THAT IS A REFLECTION OF MODELS NOT BEING ABLE TO HANDLE TROPICAL
REMNANTS VERY WELL. 20
&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH A SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTH TODAY THERE SHOULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER THE BASIN AND RANGE...BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CEILINGS
COULD BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 5K FT...BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE ALONG WITH TURBULENCE AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.

SURFACE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 KTS IN SOME AREAS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE MOST AREAS. LIGHT
WINDS CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY...EXCEPT EARLY MORNING EASTERLY WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY OVER THE SIERRA. 20
&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 250911
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
211 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA TODAY MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 50. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING
SOUTH OVER EASTERN OREGON. FORCING FROM A JET SEGMENT ALONG THE BASE
OF THE LOW IS EVIDENT FROM COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY WITH
RADAR ECHOES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY INTO HUMBOLDT
COUNTY. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS
MORNING ACROSS PERSHING COUNTY. BY LATE MORNING, DYNAMIC FORCING AND
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR PERSHING COUNTY WHICH WILL
PROVIDE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH INTO
CHURCHILL COUNTY BY THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE SIERRA
AND SIERRA FRONT, INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.

A WEAK FRONT TUESDAY MORNING WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW WHICH
WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST. COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE REGION BUT OVERALL EXPECTING
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEVADA FALLING A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. A MORE NOTICEABLE WARM-UP WILL
OCCUR BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK
INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
CYCLE...MOSTLY TO REMOVE THE SMALL POP WE HAD IN FOR SATURDAY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN CWA AND TO ADJUST SKY COVER A BIT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE MARIE AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NW ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE THE ECMWF IN KEEPING THE
TROPICAL REMNANTS FARTHER WEST AS THE RIDGE THAT IS IN PLACE EARLY
IN THE FORECAST SHOWS SIGNS OF FLATTENING. PREVIOUSLY THE GFS WAS
DIGGING A VIGOROUS TROUGH INTO THE ERN PACIFIC. NOW...EVEN THOUGH
THE TROUGH IS STILL THERE...IT IS NOT DIGGING AS FAR SOUTH. THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LARGELY AGREE WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE
OUTLIER NOW SEEMS TO BE THE GEM. IT HOLDS A SHARPER RIDGE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND THIS ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO DIG
FARTHER SOUTH AND PICK UP THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. IT
HAS SOME WEAK SUPPORT FROM A FEW GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES...ALONG WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF...SLIDE THE
MOST ENERGETIC PART OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INCREASED MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING SIPHONED OFF
THE FORMER TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH LIMITED FORCING WE DO NOT SEE...AT THIS
TIME...CAUSE FOR HOLDING ON TO THE LOW POPS. THIS COULD CHANGE IF
TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH.

THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH AND PRESENCE OF THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
TO THE NORTH MAY KEEP WINDS FROM GETTING OVERLY STRONG THIS WEEKEND.
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE AS THE RIDGE HOLDS ON
THURSDAY...THEN REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
UNLESS CLOUD COVER BECOMES THICKER THAN FORECAST.

OVERALL...CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THAT IS A REFLECTION OF MODELS NOT BEING ABLE TO HANDLE TROPICAL
REMNANTS VERY WELL. 20
&&

.AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH A SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTH TODAY THERE SHOULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER THE BASIN AND RANGE...BY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CEILINGS
COULD BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 5K FT...BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE ALONG WITH TURBULENCE AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL.

SURFACE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 KTS IN SOME AREAS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE MOST AREAS. LIGHT
WINDS CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY...EXCEPT EARLY MORNING EASTERLY WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY OVER THE SIERRA. 20
&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








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