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000
FXUS65 KREV 310040 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
540 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER HAS BECOME EXTENSIVE THIS EVENING AND THEREFORE THE
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. OVERALL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING IS MINIMAL NOW. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO STRESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND KEEPING AN ISOLATED COVERAGE TO THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ABOVE DONNER LAKE EVEN THOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED THERE. WILL KEEP IN EFFECT TO ACCOUNT
FOR RUNOFF FROM HIGHER TERRAIN. DONNER LAKE ROSE ALMOST AN INCH
(O.84 INCH) FROM THE EARLIER STORMS. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 155 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. MOST STORMS ARE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY BEFORE A DRYING TREND STARTS FRIDAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW.
THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER NEVADA WITH
SOME MOISTURE SEEPING NORTHWARD FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE SIERRA AS OF
THIS WRITING WITH SOME NOW FORMING OVER WESTERN NEVADA. EXPECT THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS TO BE OVER WESTERN NEVADA EARLY THIS EVENING
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. CLOUD COVER OVER MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES
WITH LIGHT RAINFALL HAS LIMITED HEATING THERE FOR ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT MITIGATED
THERE, HAVE CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY FOR ZONES 1 AND
73. KEPT THE WATCH GOING NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 IN ZONE 4,
AS THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS EVENING. ALSO
ADDED ZONE 3, THE SIERRA FRONT, TO THE WATCH DUE TO THE ISSUES
SEEN LAST WEEK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SLOW MOVING STORMS TO
DROP HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ARIZONA WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ON
THURSDAY AND WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA A DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND FLOW REMAINING LIGHT THURSDAY ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED STORMS
IS POSSIBLE. THE ONCE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE AROUND TAHOE WHERE
IF THE STORMS DO NOT FIRE BY MID-AFTERNOON, THEY WILL NOT OCCUR AS
WE GET BACK INTO A ZEPHYR PATTERN.

WITH A STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY, KEPT TAHOE AND MOST OF THE
SIERRA FRONT DRY EXCEPT NEAR THE PINE NUTS. ENOUGH MOISTURE
REMAINS EVERYWHERE ELSE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALTHOUGH THEY DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS STRONG AS TODAY OR TOMORROW. A
DECENT ZEPHYR WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH. WHERE THE ZEPHYR MEETS THE LIGHTER SSW FLOW NEAR HIGHWAY 95
MAY RESULT IN STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE WESTERN NEVADA CONVERGENCE
ZONE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY FOR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TRENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN
REMOVING MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FALLON AND LOVELOCK WESTWARD. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THESE LOCATIONS MORE ALONG CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA AS
THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
OSCILLATES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE SOME
INCONSISTENCIES AMONGST DETERMINISTIC MODELS THAT DIFFER ON TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE SURGES. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PICK
OUT SPECIFIC SMALLER FEATURES THAT MAY ENHANCE ACTIVITY LENDING TO A
MORE BROAD BRUSHED APPROACH TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST.
GENERALLY SPEAKING, THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
NEXT WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHERN
SIERRA WILL SOMEWHAT SPARED AS FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
PACIFIC COAST MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK. IF THIS DOES OCCUR,
THUNDERSTORM COVER WILL EXPAND QUITE A BIT AND MAY ENHANCE ACTIVITY
WITH STRONGER STORMS. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT SHOWS THIS
FEATURE, WILL HOLD OFF INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE UNTIL
SUBSEQUENT RUNS TO SEE IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS. BOYD

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. COVERAGE IS MORE EXTENSIVE THAN MONDAY
WITH MOST STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. KMMH-KBAN-KNFL-KLOL MAY
EXPERIENCE LATER THUNDERSTORMS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER NORTH, INCLUDING KRNO-KCXP, THERE
IS A 50% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING.
SIERRA TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AROUND 75% WHERE
COVERAGE HAS BEEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS.

ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL
AND DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 30KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE LESS ACTIVE. HOON/BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 310040 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
540 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER HAS BECOME EXTENSIVE THIS EVENING AND THEREFORE THE
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. OVERALL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED AND THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING IS MINIMAL NOW. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO STRESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND KEEPING AN ISOLATED COVERAGE TO THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ABOVE DONNER LAKE EVEN THOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED THERE. WILL KEEP IN EFFECT TO ACCOUNT
FOR RUNOFF FROM HIGHER TERRAIN. DONNER LAKE ROSE ALMOST AN INCH
(O.84 INCH) FROM THE EARLIER STORMS. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 155 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. MOST STORMS ARE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY BEFORE A DRYING TREND STARTS FRIDAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW.
THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER NEVADA WITH
SOME MOISTURE SEEPING NORTHWARD FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE SIERRA AS OF
THIS WRITING WITH SOME NOW FORMING OVER WESTERN NEVADA. EXPECT THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS TO BE OVER WESTERN NEVADA EARLY THIS EVENING
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. CLOUD COVER OVER MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES
WITH LIGHT RAINFALL HAS LIMITED HEATING THERE FOR ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT MITIGATED
THERE, HAVE CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY FOR ZONES 1 AND
73. KEPT THE WATCH GOING NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 IN ZONE 4,
AS THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS EVENING. ALSO
ADDED ZONE 3, THE SIERRA FRONT, TO THE WATCH DUE TO THE ISSUES
SEEN LAST WEEK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SLOW MOVING STORMS TO
DROP HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ARIZONA WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ON
THURSDAY AND WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA A DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND FLOW REMAINING LIGHT THURSDAY ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED STORMS
IS POSSIBLE. THE ONCE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE AROUND TAHOE WHERE
IF THE STORMS DO NOT FIRE BY MID-AFTERNOON, THEY WILL NOT OCCUR AS
WE GET BACK INTO A ZEPHYR PATTERN.

WITH A STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY, KEPT TAHOE AND MOST OF THE
SIERRA FRONT DRY EXCEPT NEAR THE PINE NUTS. ENOUGH MOISTURE
REMAINS EVERYWHERE ELSE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALTHOUGH THEY DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS STRONG AS TODAY OR TOMORROW. A
DECENT ZEPHYR WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH. WHERE THE ZEPHYR MEETS THE LIGHTER SSW FLOW NEAR HIGHWAY 95
MAY RESULT IN STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE WESTERN NEVADA CONVERGENCE
ZONE.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY FOR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TRENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN
REMOVING MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FALLON AND LOVELOCK WESTWARD. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THESE LOCATIONS MORE ALONG CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA AS
THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
OSCILLATES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE SOME
INCONSISTENCIES AMONGST DETERMINISTIC MODELS THAT DIFFER ON TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE SURGES. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PICK
OUT SPECIFIC SMALLER FEATURES THAT MAY ENHANCE ACTIVITY LENDING TO A
MORE BROAD BRUSHED APPROACH TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST.
GENERALLY SPEAKING, THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
NEXT WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHERN
SIERRA WILL SOMEWHAT SPARED AS FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
PACIFIC COAST MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK. IF THIS DOES OCCUR,
THUNDERSTORM COVER WILL EXPAND QUITE A BIT AND MAY ENHANCE ACTIVITY
WITH STRONGER STORMS. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT SHOWS THIS
FEATURE, WILL HOLD OFF INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE UNTIL
SUBSEQUENT RUNS TO SEE IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS. BOYD

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. COVERAGE IS MORE EXTENSIVE THAN MONDAY
WITH MOST STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. KMMH-KBAN-KNFL-KLOL MAY
EXPERIENCE LATER THUNDERSTORMS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER NORTH, INCLUDING KRNO-KCXP, THERE
IS A 50% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING.
SIERRA TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AROUND 75% WHERE
COVERAGE HAS BEEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS.

ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL
AND DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 30KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE LESS ACTIVE. HOON/BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 302103 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
155 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

CORRECTED SHORT TERM AND ADDED LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. MOST STORMS ARE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY BEFORE A DRYING TREND STARTS FRIDAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW.
THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER NEVADA WITH
SOME MOISTURE SEEPING NORTHWARD FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE SIERRA AS OF
THIS WRITING WITH SOME NOW FORMING OVER WESTERN NEVADA. EXPECT THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS TO BE OVER WESTERN NEVADA EARLY THIS EVENING
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. CLOUD COVER OVER MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES
WITH LIGHT RAINFALL HAS LIMITED HEATING THERE FOR ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT MITIGATED
THERE, HAVE CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY FOR ZONES 1 AND
73. KEPT THE WATCH GOING NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 IN ZONE 4,
AS THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS EVENING. ALSO
ADDED ZONE 3, THE SIERRA FRONT, TO THE WATCH DUE TO THE ISSUES
SEEN LAST WEEK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SLOW MOVING STORMS TO
DROP HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ARIZONA WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ON
THURSDAY AND WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA A DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND FLOW REMAINING LIGHT THURSDAY ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED STORMS
IS POSSIBLE. THE ONCE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE AROUND TAHOE WHERE
IF THE STORMS DO NOT FIRE BY MID-AFTERNOON, THEY WILL NOT OCCUR AS
WE GET BACK INTO A ZEPHYR PATTERN.

WITH A STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY, KEPT TAHOE AND MOST OF THE
SIERRA FRONT DRY EXCEPT NEAR THE PINE NUTS. ENOUGH MOISTURE
REMAINS EVERYWHERE ELSE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALTHOUGH THEY DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS STRONG AS TODAY OR TOMORROW. A
DECENT ZEPHYR WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH. WHERE THE ZEPHYR MEETS THE LIGHTER SSW FLOW NEAR HIGHWAY 95
MAY RESULT IN STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE WESTERN NEVADA CONVERGENCE
ZONE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY FOR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TRENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN
REMOVING MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FALLON AND LOVELOCK WESTWARD. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THESE LOCATIONS MORE ALONG CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA AS
THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
OSCILLATES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE SOME
INCONSISTENCIES AMONGST DETERMINISTIC MODELS THAT DIFFER ON TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE SURGES. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PICK
OUT SPECIFIC SMALLER FEATURES THAT MAY ENHANCE ACTIVITY LENDING TO A
MORE BROAD BRUSHED APPROACH TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST.
GENERALLY SPEAKING, THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
NEXT WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHERN
SIERRA WILL SOMEWHAT SPARED AS FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
PACIFIC COAST MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK. IF THIS DOES OCCUR,
THUNDERSTORM COVER WILL EXPAND QUITE A BIT AND MAY ENHANCE ACTIVITY
WITH STRONGER STORMS. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT SHOWS THIS
FEATURE, WILL HOLD OFF INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE UNTIL
SUBSEQUENT RUNS TO SEE IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. COVERAGE IS MORE EXTENSIVE THAN MONDAY
WITH MOST STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. KMMH-KBAN-KNFL-KLOL MAY
EXPERIENCE LATER THUNDERSTORMS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER NORTH, INCLUDING KRNO-KCXP, THERE
IS A 50% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING.
SIERRA TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AROUND 75% WHERE
COVERAGE HAS BEEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS.

ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL
AND DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 30KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE LESS ACTIVE. HOON/BOYD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ003-004.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 302103 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
155 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

CORRECTED SHORT TERM AND ADDED LONG TERM

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. MOST STORMS ARE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY BEFORE A DRYING TREND STARTS FRIDAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW.
THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER NEVADA WITH
SOME MOISTURE SEEPING NORTHWARD FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE SIERRA AS OF
THIS WRITING WITH SOME NOW FORMING OVER WESTERN NEVADA. EXPECT THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS TO BE OVER WESTERN NEVADA EARLY THIS EVENING
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. CLOUD COVER OVER MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES
WITH LIGHT RAINFALL HAS LIMITED HEATING THERE FOR ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT MITIGATED
THERE, HAVE CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY FOR ZONES 1 AND
73. KEPT THE WATCH GOING NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 IN ZONE 4,
AS THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS EVENING. ALSO
ADDED ZONE 3, THE SIERRA FRONT, TO THE WATCH DUE TO THE ISSUES
SEEN LAST WEEK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SLOW MOVING STORMS TO
DROP HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ARIZONA WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ON
THURSDAY AND WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA A DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND FLOW REMAINING LIGHT THURSDAY ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED STORMS
IS POSSIBLE. THE ONCE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE AROUND TAHOE WHERE
IF THE STORMS DO NOT FIRE BY MID-AFTERNOON, THEY WILL NOT OCCUR AS
WE GET BACK INTO A ZEPHYR PATTERN.

WITH A STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY, KEPT TAHOE AND MOST OF THE
SIERRA FRONT DRY EXCEPT NEAR THE PINE NUTS. ENOUGH MOISTURE
REMAINS EVERYWHERE ELSE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALTHOUGH THEY DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS STRONG AS TODAY OR TOMORROW. A
DECENT ZEPHYR WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH. WHERE THE ZEPHYR MEETS THE LIGHTER SSW FLOW NEAR HIGHWAY 95
MAY RESULT IN STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE WESTERN NEVADA CONVERGENCE
ZONE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY FOR THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TRENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN
REMOVING MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FALLON AND LOVELOCK WESTWARD. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THESE LOCATIONS MORE ALONG CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA AS
THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
OSCILLATES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE SOME
INCONSISTENCIES AMONGST DETERMINISTIC MODELS THAT DIFFER ON TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE SURGES. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PICK
OUT SPECIFIC SMALLER FEATURES THAT MAY ENHANCE ACTIVITY LENDING TO A
MORE BROAD BRUSHED APPROACH TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST.
GENERALLY SPEAKING, THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
NEXT WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHERN
SIERRA WILL SOMEWHAT SPARED AS FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
PACIFIC COAST MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK. IF THIS DOES OCCUR,
THUNDERSTORM COVER WILL EXPAND QUITE A BIT AND MAY ENHANCE ACTIVITY
WITH STRONGER STORMS. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT SHOWS THIS
FEATURE, WILL HOLD OFF INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE UNTIL
SUBSEQUENT RUNS TO SEE IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. COVERAGE IS MORE EXTENSIVE THAN MONDAY
WITH MOST STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. KMMH-KBAN-KNFL-KLOL MAY
EXPERIENCE LATER THUNDERSTORMS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER NORTH, INCLUDING KRNO-KCXP, THERE
IS A 50% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING.
SIERRA TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AROUND 75% WHERE
COVERAGE HAS BEEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS.

ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL
AND DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 30KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE LESS ACTIVE. HOON/BOYD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ003-004.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 302032
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
132 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. MOST STORMS ARE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY BEFORE A DRYING TREND STARTS FRIDAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW.
THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER NEVADA WITH
SOME MOISTURE SEEPING NORTHWARD FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE SIERRA AS OF
THIS WRITING WITH SOME NOW FORMING OVER WESTERN NEVADA. EXPECT THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS TO BE OVER WESTERN NEVADA EARLY THIS EVENING
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. CLOUD COVER OVER MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES
WITH LIGHT RAINFALL HAS LIMITED HEATING THERE FOR ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT MITIGATED
THERE, HAVE CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY FOR ZONES 1 AND
73. KEPT THE WATCH GOING NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 IN ZONE 4,
AS THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS EVENING. ALSO
ADDED ZONE 3, THE SIERRA FRONT, TO THE WATCH DUE TO THE ISSUES
SEEN LAST WEEK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SLOW MOVING STORMS TO
DROP HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ARIZONA WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ON
THURSDAY AND WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA A DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND FLOW REMAINING LIGHT THURSDAY ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED STORMS
IS POSSIBLE. THE ONCE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE AROUND TAHOE WHERE
IF THE STORMS DO NOT FIRE BY MID-AFTERNOON, THEY WILL NOT OCCUR AS
WE GET BACK INTO A ZEPHYR PATTERN.

WITH A STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY, KEPT TAHOE AND MOST OF THE
SIERRA FRONT DRY EXCEPT NEAR THE PINE NUTS. ENOUGH MOISTURE
REMAINS EVERYWHERE ELSE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALTHOUGH THEY DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS STRONG AS TODAY OR TOMORROW. A
DECENT ZEPHYR WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH. WHERE THE ZEPHYR MEETS THE LIGHTER SSW FLOW NEAR HIGHWAY 95
MAY RESULT IN STRONGER STORMS A


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ003-004.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 302032
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
132 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. MOST STORMS ARE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY BEFORE A DRYING TREND STARTS FRIDAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW.
THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER NEVADA WITH
SOME MOISTURE SEEPING NORTHWARD FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE SIERRA AS OF
THIS WRITING WITH SOME NOW FORMING OVER WESTERN NEVADA. EXPECT THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS TO BE OVER WESTERN NEVADA EARLY THIS EVENING
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. CLOUD COVER OVER MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES
WITH LIGHT RAINFALL HAS LIMITED HEATING THERE FOR ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WITH THE CONVECTIVE THREAT MITIGATED
THERE, HAVE CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY FOR ZONES 1 AND
73. KEPT THE WATCH GOING NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 IN ZONE 4,
AS THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE THIS EVENING. ALSO
ADDED ZONE 3, THE SIERRA FRONT, TO THE WATCH DUE TO THE ISSUES
SEEN LAST WEEK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SLOW MOVING STORMS TO
DROP HEAVY RAINS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ARIZONA WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ON
THURSDAY AND WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA A DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND FLOW REMAINING LIGHT THURSDAY ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED STORMS
IS POSSIBLE. THE ONCE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE AROUND TAHOE WHERE
IF THE STORMS DO NOT FIRE BY MID-AFTERNOON, THEY WILL NOT OCCUR AS
WE GET BACK INTO A ZEPHYR PATTERN.

WITH A STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY, KEPT TAHOE AND MOST OF THE
SIERRA FRONT DRY EXCEPT NEAR THE PINE NUTS. ENOUGH MOISTURE
REMAINS EVERYWHERE ELSE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALTHOUGH THEY DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS STRONG AS TODAY OR TOMORROW. A
DECENT ZEPHYR WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH. WHERE THE ZEPHYR MEETS THE LIGHTER SSW FLOW NEAR HIGHWAY 95
MAY RESULT IN STRONGER STORMS A


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ003-004.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 301658 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
958 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO GRIDS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER TODAY FOR
MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WITH LIGHT RAIN FROM LAST
NIGHT`S SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CONVECTION ARE MOVING THROUGH. THIS
WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MID AFTERNOON. WITH THIS CLOUD COVER, TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE COOLER AND CONVECTION MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR
AS STRONG AS INITIALLY EXPECTED. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA FOR
NOW, AND MAY END UP REMOVING MONO/MINERAL FROM FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THIS AFTERNOON IF THE CLOUD COVER HAS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH THE KREV MORNING SOUNDING VERY
UNSTABLE FOR AREAS WITH SIGNIFICANT SUN THIS MORNING. WALLMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
INTERACTS WITH DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, AND
EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM MONO COUNTY NORTH AND
EAST INTO MINERAL, CHURCHILL AND PERSHING COUNTIES. FASTER STORM
MOTIONS BY THURSDAY COULD RESULT IN GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG WITH
A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AREA POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

SHORT TERM...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SIERRA THIS MORNING WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH BETTER INSTABILITY (LI~-3, HLTT>35, SFC CAPES >
800J/KG) OVER THE SIERRA AND AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 50 IN
WESTERN NEVADA TODAY. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE FAVORED REGIONS FOR
ADDITIONAL FORCING VIA UPPER LEVEL LIFT FROM A WEAK COUPLED JET
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BY A VORTICITY MAX IMPULSE THAT WILL PUSH
THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS HAS PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR MONO, MINERAL, AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES. THESE AREAS
HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR DEVELOPING FLASH FLOODING TODAY BUT
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH STILL ARE STILL VULNERABLE TO ISOLATED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTHEAST WITH THE VORTICITY CENTER,
MAINLY CARRYING IT NEAR MINERAL AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES BY LATE
EVENING. LOOKING MORE LIKE THIS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT WHILE THE DAYTIME STORMS WILL HAVE TO
RELY ON DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING. SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NORTH FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BUT
HI-RES MODELS STILL LOOK TO FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE SIERRA
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT INTO MINERAL AND THEN ACROSS EASTERN
PERSHING/CHURCHILL COUNTIES. ONGOING FORECAST SEEMS TO HANDLE THIS
PROGRESSION WELL AND NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

BY THURSDAY, DRIER AIR STARTS TO FILTER ACROSS THE SIERRA BUT WITH
PWATS > 0.6", STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR REDUCED CLOUD COVER
EARLIER IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR BETTER SURFACE BASED HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. DID INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
AS A RESULT. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE, COULD SEE INCREASED THREAT FOR
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES. DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE SIERRA INTO FRIDAY WHICH HAS PROMPTED
LESSER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY STAYING MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 395
OVER WESTERN NEVADA AND ACROSS MONO COUNTY. FUENTES

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE FOUR CORNERS RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL GIVE WAVE TO
WEAK AND DISORGANIZED TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE REALLY BEEN BACKING OFF ON
THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW DROPS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER TO LESS THAN 0.5". THIS WOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO SEE ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES THAT DRY (NOT TO MENTION THE STRONG CAPPING IN LATEST GFS
SOUNDINGS).

FOR NOW, LEFT IN THE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS IN
WESTERN NEVADA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT REALLY STARTED TRIMMING
BACK ON THE CHANCES. THE ECMWF STILL HAS CONVECTION IN WESTERN
NEVADA, SO WE WILL KEEP IT IN FOR NOW. WE`VE BEEN SAYING FOR DAYS
THAT THIS PATTERN IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND THE MODELS ARE DEFINITELY
SHOWING THEIR INCONSISTENCY. SINCE THERE IS NO MAJOR SHORTWAVE
DURING THE EXTENDED AND ONLY WEAK DISORGANIZED FLOW, THIS IS MAKING
FOR A VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST.

MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST STARTING TO ELONGATE TO THE
SOUTH, TURNING THE FLOW OVER THE SIERRA TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CREEPING BACK INTO THE SIERRA AND ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS VERY LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. HOON

AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH GREATER COVERAGE THAN MONDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, ESPECIALLY AT KMMH-KBAN-KNFL-KLOL WITH 50%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TERMINALS TODAY. FURTHER NORTH,
INCLUDING KRNO-KCXP-KTRK-KTVL, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING.

ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL
AND DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 30KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
     EVENING NVZ004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING NVZ001.

CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING CAZ073.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 301658 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
958 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO GRIDS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER TODAY FOR
MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WITH LIGHT RAIN FROM LAST
NIGHT`S SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CONVECTION ARE MOVING THROUGH. THIS
WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MID AFTERNOON. WITH THIS CLOUD COVER, TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE COOLER AND CONVECTION MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR
AS STRONG AS INITIALLY EXPECTED. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA FOR
NOW, AND MAY END UP REMOVING MONO/MINERAL FROM FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THIS AFTERNOON IF THE CLOUD COVER HAS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH THE KREV MORNING SOUNDING VERY
UNSTABLE FOR AREAS WITH SIGNIFICANT SUN THIS MORNING. WALLMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
INTERACTS WITH DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, AND
EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM MONO COUNTY NORTH AND
EAST INTO MINERAL, CHURCHILL AND PERSHING COUNTIES. FASTER STORM
MOTIONS BY THURSDAY COULD RESULT IN GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG WITH
A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AREA POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

SHORT TERM...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SIERRA THIS MORNING WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH BETTER INSTABILITY (LI~-3, HLTT>35, SFC CAPES >
800J/KG) OVER THE SIERRA AND AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 50 IN
WESTERN NEVADA TODAY. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE FAVORED REGIONS FOR
ADDITIONAL FORCING VIA UPPER LEVEL LIFT FROM A WEAK COUPLED JET
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BY A VORTICITY MAX IMPULSE THAT WILL PUSH
THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS HAS PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR MONO, MINERAL, AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES. THESE AREAS
HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR DEVELOPING FLASH FLOODING TODAY BUT
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH STILL ARE STILL VULNERABLE TO ISOLATED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTHEAST WITH THE VORTICITY CENTER,
MAINLY CARRYING IT NEAR MINERAL AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES BY LATE
EVENING. LOOKING MORE LIKE THIS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT WHILE THE DAYTIME STORMS WILL HAVE TO
RELY ON DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING. SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NORTH FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BUT
HI-RES MODELS STILL LOOK TO FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE SIERRA
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT INTO MINERAL AND THEN ACROSS EASTERN
PERSHING/CHURCHILL COUNTIES. ONGOING FORECAST SEEMS TO HANDLE THIS
PROGRESSION WELL AND NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

BY THURSDAY, DRIER AIR STARTS TO FILTER ACROSS THE SIERRA BUT WITH
PWATS > 0.6", STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR REDUCED CLOUD COVER
EARLIER IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR BETTER SURFACE BASED HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. DID INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
AS A RESULT. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE, COULD SEE INCREASED THREAT FOR
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES. DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE SIERRA INTO FRIDAY WHICH HAS PROMPTED
LESSER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY STAYING MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 395
OVER WESTERN NEVADA AND ACROSS MONO COUNTY. FUENTES

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE FOUR CORNERS RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL GIVE WAVE TO
WEAK AND DISORGANIZED TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE REALLY BEEN BACKING OFF ON
THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW DROPS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER TO LESS THAN 0.5". THIS WOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO SEE ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES THAT DRY (NOT TO MENTION THE STRONG CAPPING IN LATEST GFS
SOUNDINGS).

FOR NOW, LEFT IN THE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS IN
WESTERN NEVADA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT REALLY STARTED TRIMMING
BACK ON THE CHANCES. THE ECMWF STILL HAS CONVECTION IN WESTERN
NEVADA, SO WE WILL KEEP IT IN FOR NOW. WE`VE BEEN SAYING FOR DAYS
THAT THIS PATTERN IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND THE MODELS ARE DEFINITELY
SHOWING THEIR INCONSISTENCY. SINCE THERE IS NO MAJOR SHORTWAVE
DURING THE EXTENDED AND ONLY WEAK DISORGANIZED FLOW, THIS IS MAKING
FOR A VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST.

MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST STARTING TO ELONGATE TO THE
SOUTH, TURNING THE FLOW OVER THE SIERRA TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CREEPING BACK INTO THE SIERRA AND ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS VERY LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. HOON

AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH GREATER COVERAGE THAN MONDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, ESPECIALLY AT KMMH-KBAN-KNFL-KLOL WITH 50%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TERMINALS TODAY. FURTHER NORTH,
INCLUDING KRNO-KCXP-KTRK-KTVL, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING.

ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL
AND DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 30KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
     EVENING NVZ004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING NVZ001.

CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING CAZ073.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 301007
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
307 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
INTERACTS WITH DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, AND
EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM MONO COUNTY NORTH AND
EAST INTO MINERAL, CHURCHILL AND PERSHING COUNTIES. FASTER STORM
MOTIONS BY THURSDAY COULD RESULT IN GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG WITH
A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AREA POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SIERRA THIS MORNING WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH BETTER INSTABILITY (LI~-3, HLTT>35, SFC CAPES >
800J/KG) OVER THE SIERRA AND AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 50 IN
WESTERN NEVADA TODAY. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE FAVORED REGIONS FOR
ADDITIONAL FORCING VIA UPPER LEVEL LIFT FROM A WEAK COUPLED JET
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BY A VORTICITY MAX IMPULSE THAT WILL PUSH
THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS HAS PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR MONO, MINERAL, AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES. THESE AREAS
HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR DEVELOPING FLASH FLOODING TODAY BUT
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH STILL ARE STILL VULNERABLE TO ISOLATED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTHEAST WITH THE VORTICITY CENTER,
MAINLY CARRYING IT NEAR MINERAL AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES BY LATE
EVENING. LOOKING MORE LIKE THIS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT WHILE THE DAYTIME STORMS WILL HAVE TO
RELY ON DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING. SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NORTH FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BUT
HI-RES MODELS STILL LOOK TO FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE SIERRA
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT INTO MINERAL AND THEN ACROSS EASTERN
PERSHING/CHURCHILL COUNTIES. ONGOING FORECAST SEEMS TO HANDLE THIS
PROGRESSION WELL AND NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

BY THURSDAY, DRIER AIR STARTS TO FILTER ACROSS THE SIERRA BUT WITH
PWATS > 0.6", STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR REDUCED CLOUD COVER
EARLIER IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR BETTER SURFACE BASED HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. DID INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
AS A RESULT. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE, COULD SEE INCREASED THREAT FOR
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES. DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE SIERRA INTO FRIDAY WHICH HAS PROMPTED
LESSER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY STAYING MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 395
OVER WESTERN NEVADA AND ACROSS MONO COUNTY. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE FOUR CORNERS RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL GIVE WAVE TO
WEAK AND DISORGANIZED TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE REALLY BEEN BACKING OFF ON
THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW DROPS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER TO LESS THAN 0.5". THIS WOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO SEE ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES THAT DRY (NOT TO MENTION THE STRONG CAPPING IN LATEST GFS
SOUNDINGS).

FOR NOW, LEFT IN THE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS IN
WESTERN NEVADA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT REALLY STARTED TRIMMING
BACK ON THE CHANCES. THE ECMWF STILL HAS CONVECTION IN WESTERN
NEVADA, SO WE WILL KEEP IT IN FOR NOW. WE`VE BEEN SAYING FOR DAYS
THAT THIS PATTERN IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND THE MODELS ARE DEFINITELY
SHOWING THEIR INCONSISTENCY. SINCE THERE IS NO MAJOR SHORTWAVE
DURING THE EXTENDED AND ONLY WEAK DISORGANIZED FLOW, THIS IS MAKING
FOR A VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST.

MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST STARTING TO ELONGATE TO THE
SOUTH, TURNING THE FLOW OVER THE SIERRA TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CREEPING BACK INTO THE SIERRA AND ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS VERY LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. HOON

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH GREATER COVERAGE THAN MONDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, ESPECIALLY AT KMMH-KBAN-KNFL-KLOL WITH 50%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TERMINALS TODAY. FURTHER NORTH,
INCLUDING KRNO-KCXP-KTRK-KTVL, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING.

ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL
AND DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 30KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOON

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
     EVENING NVZ004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON PDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     NVZ001.

CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON PDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     CAZ073.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 301007
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
307 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
INTERACTS WITH DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, AND
EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM MONO COUNTY NORTH AND
EAST INTO MINERAL, CHURCHILL AND PERSHING COUNTIES. FASTER STORM
MOTIONS BY THURSDAY COULD RESULT IN GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG WITH
A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AREA POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SIERRA THIS MORNING WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH BETTER INSTABILITY (LI~-3, HLTT>35, SFC CAPES >
800J/KG) OVER THE SIERRA AND AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF HWY 50 IN
WESTERN NEVADA TODAY. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE FAVORED REGIONS FOR
ADDITIONAL FORCING VIA UPPER LEVEL LIFT FROM A WEAK COUPLED JET
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BY A VORTICITY MAX IMPULSE THAT WILL PUSH
THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS HAS PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR MONO, MINERAL, AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES. THESE AREAS
HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR DEVELOPING FLASH FLOODING TODAY BUT
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH STILL ARE STILL VULNERABLE TO ISOLATED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTHEAST WITH THE VORTICITY CENTER,
MAINLY CARRYING IT NEAR MINERAL AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES BY LATE
EVENING. LOOKING MORE LIKE THIS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT WHILE THE DAYTIME STORMS WILL HAVE TO
RELY ON DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING. SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NORTH FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BUT
HI-RES MODELS STILL LOOK TO FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE SIERRA
EARLY AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT INTO MINERAL AND THEN ACROSS EASTERN
PERSHING/CHURCHILL COUNTIES. ONGOING FORECAST SEEMS TO HANDLE THIS
PROGRESSION WELL AND NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

BY THURSDAY, DRIER AIR STARTS TO FILTER ACROSS THE SIERRA BUT WITH
PWATS > 0.6", STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR REDUCED CLOUD COVER
EARLIER IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR BETTER SURFACE BASED HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. DID INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
AS A RESULT. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE, COULD SEE INCREASED THREAT FOR
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES. DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE SIERRA INTO FRIDAY WHICH HAS PROMPTED
LESSER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY STAYING MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 395
OVER WESTERN NEVADA AND ACROSS MONO COUNTY. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE FOUR CORNERS RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL GIVE WAVE TO
WEAK AND DISORGANIZED TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE REALLY BEEN BACKING OFF ON
THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW DROPS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER TO LESS THAN 0.5". THIS WOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO SEE ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES THAT DRY (NOT TO MENTION THE STRONG CAPPING IN LATEST GFS
SOUNDINGS).

FOR NOW, LEFT IN THE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS IN
WESTERN NEVADA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT REALLY STARTED TRIMMING
BACK ON THE CHANCES. THE ECMWF STILL HAS CONVECTION IN WESTERN
NEVADA, SO WE WILL KEEP IT IN FOR NOW. WE`VE BEEN SAYING FOR DAYS
THAT THIS PATTERN IS VERY UNCERTAIN AND THE MODELS ARE DEFINITELY
SHOWING THEIR INCONSISTENCY. SINCE THERE IS NO MAJOR SHORTWAVE
DURING THE EXTENDED AND ONLY WEAK DISORGANIZED FLOW, THIS IS MAKING
FOR A VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST.

MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST STARTING TO ELONGATE TO THE
SOUTH, TURNING THE FLOW OVER THE SIERRA TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CREEPING BACK INTO THE SIERRA AND ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS VERY LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. HOON

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH GREATER COVERAGE THAN MONDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, ESPECIALLY AT KMMH-KBAN-KNFL-KLOL WITH 50%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TERMINALS TODAY. FURTHER NORTH,
INCLUDING KRNO-KCXP-KTRK-KTVL, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING.

ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL
AND DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 30KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOON

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
     EVENING NVZ004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON PDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     NVZ001.

CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON PDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     CAZ073.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 292124
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
224 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND INTERACTS WITH DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN, AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM MONO
COUNTY NORTH AND EAST INTO MINERAL, CHURCHILL AND PERSHING
COUNTIES. FASTER STORM MOTIONS BY THURSDAY COULD RESULT IN GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG WITH A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES, MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AREA POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
PARTIAL CLEARING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWED
HEATING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THESE STORMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE TO THE EAST AND REDEVELOP WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED AREAS. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE FORMED
OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. THESE STORMS SHOULD
DRIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH
CLOUDS INHIBITING CONVECTION THUS FAR OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MANY AREAS IN THE BASIN
AND RANGE WILL SEE FEW...IF ANY STORMS THIS EVENING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH SUBTLE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN
THE OVERALL FLOW...BUT THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH A
VORTICITY LOBE THAT IS A REMNANT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING
NORTH TOWARD SOUTHERN CA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOBE SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST TOMORROW OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AND
PROVIDE THE MAIN FORCING FOR ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OD THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM MONO COUNTY NORTHEAST
THROUGH MINERAL AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES SHOW PWATS APPROACHING 1
INCH FOR WEDNESDAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT STORM MOTIONS. WHILE
INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERWHELMING...THE LACK OF STORM MOTION AND THE
PRESENCE OF MID LVL FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS EAST OF A LINE FROM BRIDGEPORT TO YERINGTON TO FALLON
TO NEAR WINNEMUCCA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MONO...
MINERAL...SOUTHERN LYON AND THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF CHURCHILL AND
PERSHING COUNTIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA STORM MOTIONS WILL BE A LITTLE FASTER...
BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...JUST NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
PROBABLE. AREAS OF STEEPER TERRAIN AND RECENT BURN SCARS IN
ALPINE...DOUGLAS...STOREY AND NORTHERN LYON COUNTIES WILL BE
ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO RUN OFF FROM HEAVY RAINS WEDNESDAY.

THE PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL FORCING WILL MEAN A CONTINUED THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE SHOULD PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THURSDAY. THESE ARE LIKELY TO BE MOVING A
LITTLE FASTER OVERALL...BUT AGAIN THE SLOWEST MOTIONS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE MOVING FASTER WITH
DRIER SUB CLOUD LAYERS THAT COULD PRODUCE VERY GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO A STRONG POSSIBILITY FOR THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. 20

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WITH A WEAK TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR THE CA COAST THIS WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THIS TROUGH MAY DISSIPATE OR MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE, RESULTING IN
MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 90S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND 80S IN THE SIERRA.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP CONVECTION OUT OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND TAHOE
BASIN, WITH BETTER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN WESTERN NEVADA EAST OF
RENO AND CARSON CITY. ON TODAY`S GUIDANCE, THE TROUGH IS LOCATED
NEAR OR JUST INLAND OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FOR BOTH DAYS. FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, THERE MAY BE OTHER DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE RIDGE THAT WILL AFFECT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, BUT THEY
APPEAR TO BE TRACKING TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON
THESE AREAS.

ON SUNDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE IS HAVING DIFFICULTY KEEPING THE TROUGH
NEAR CALIFORNIA INTACT, WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY BEING SHEARED OUT TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. IF THIS OCCURS, THEN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WOULD LIKELY DECREASE. PREVIOUS DAYS OF GUIDANCE WERE FAVORING THIS
TROUGH HOLDING TOGETHER AND DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH ALONG THE CA
COAST, BRINGING IN MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND RESTORING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND TAHOE BASIN. AT THIS
TIME WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN ALL AREAS, ALTHOUGH WE DID
PUSH THE BETTER CHANCES TO THE EAST OF RENO-CARSON CITY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER CA-NV. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS ERODING THE GREAT BASIN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE, WHILE THE REMNANT TROUGH NEAR THE CALIFORNIA
COAST DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL EFFECTS FOR THE SIERRA
OR WESTERN NV. SINCE THERE IS NO DISTINCT MECHANISM CLEARING OUT
THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN
OUR REGION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT
CHANCE IN ANY LOCATION.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV. MJD
&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST ARE
LIKELY TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO FAR WESTERN NV THRU LATE AFTERNOON.
HAVE MENTIONED AT LEAST VCTS IN ALL TERMINALS THRU 00Z AROUND
THE TAHOE BASIN, AND THRU 02Z FROM KRNO-KCXP TO KMMH. SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE INDICATES ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN RATHER QUICKLY BY EARLY
EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE GUSTY WINDS MORE LIKELY AFFECTING LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NV.

FOR WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY BTWN 19Z-04Z, WITH GREATER COVERAGE AND HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL SOUTH AND EAST OF WINNEMUCCA-FALLON-BRIDGEPORT
LINE. MJD
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ001.

CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING CAZ073.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)












000
FXUS65 KREV 292124
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
224 PM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND INTERACTS WITH DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN, AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM MONO
COUNTY NORTH AND EAST INTO MINERAL, CHURCHILL AND PERSHING
COUNTIES. FASTER STORM MOTIONS BY THURSDAY COULD RESULT IN GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG WITH A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES, MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AREA POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
PARTIAL CLEARING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWED
HEATING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THESE STORMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE TO THE EAST AND REDEVELOP WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED AREAS. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE FORMED
OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. THESE STORMS SHOULD
DRIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH
CLOUDS INHIBITING CONVECTION THUS FAR OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MANY AREAS IN THE BASIN
AND RANGE WILL SEE FEW...IF ANY STORMS THIS EVENING.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH SUBTLE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN
THE OVERALL FLOW...BUT THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH A
VORTICITY LOBE THAT IS A REMNANT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING
NORTH TOWARD SOUTHERN CA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOBE SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST TOMORROW OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AND
PROVIDE THE MAIN FORCING FOR ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OD THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM MONO COUNTY NORTHEAST
THROUGH MINERAL AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES SHOW PWATS APPROACHING 1
INCH FOR WEDNESDAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT STORM MOTIONS. WHILE
INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERWHELMING...THE LACK OF STORM MOTION AND THE
PRESENCE OF MID LVL FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS EAST OF A LINE FROM BRIDGEPORT TO YERINGTON TO FALLON
TO NEAR WINNEMUCCA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MONO...
MINERAL...SOUTHERN LYON AND THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF CHURCHILL AND
PERSHING COUNTIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA STORM MOTIONS WILL BE A LITTLE FASTER...
BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...JUST NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
PROBABLE. AREAS OF STEEPER TERRAIN AND RECENT BURN SCARS IN
ALPINE...DOUGLAS...STOREY AND NORTHERN LYON COUNTIES WILL BE
ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO RUN OFF FROM HEAVY RAINS WEDNESDAY.

THE PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL FORCING WILL MEAN A CONTINUED THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE SHOULD PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THURSDAY. THESE ARE LIKELY TO BE MOVING A
LITTLE FASTER OVERALL...BUT AGAIN THE SLOWEST MOTIONS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE MOVING FASTER WITH
DRIER SUB CLOUD LAYERS THAT COULD PRODUCE VERY GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO A STRONG POSSIBILITY FOR THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. 20

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE SOUTHWEST US WITH A WEAK TROUGH
DEVELOPING NEAR THE CA COAST THIS WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THIS TROUGH MAY DISSIPATE OR MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE, RESULTING IN
MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 90S FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND 80S IN THE SIERRA.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP CONVECTION OUT OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND TAHOE
BASIN, WITH BETTER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN WESTERN NEVADA EAST OF
RENO AND CARSON CITY. ON TODAY`S GUIDANCE, THE TROUGH IS LOCATED
NEAR OR JUST INLAND OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FOR BOTH DAYS. FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, THERE MAY BE OTHER DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE RIDGE THAT WILL AFFECT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, BUT THEY
APPEAR TO BE TRACKING TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON
THESE AREAS.

ON SUNDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE IS HAVING DIFFICULTY KEEPING THE TROUGH
NEAR CALIFORNIA INTACT, WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY BEING SHEARED OUT TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. IF THIS OCCURS, THEN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
WOULD LIKELY DECREASE. PREVIOUS DAYS OF GUIDANCE WERE FAVORING THIS
TROUGH HOLDING TOGETHER AND DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH ALONG THE CA
COAST, BRINGING IN MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND RESTORING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND TAHOE BASIN. AT THIS
TIME WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN ALL AREAS, ALTHOUGH WE DID
PUSH THE BETTER CHANCES TO THE EAST OF RENO-CARSON CITY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER CA-NV. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS ERODING THE GREAT BASIN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE, WHILE THE REMNANT TROUGH NEAR THE CALIFORNIA
COAST DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH MINIMAL EFFECTS FOR THE SIERRA
OR WESTERN NV. SINCE THERE IS NO DISTINCT MECHANISM CLEARING OUT
THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN
OUR REGION, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT
CHANCE IN ANY LOCATION.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV. MJD
&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST ARE
LIKELY TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO FAR WESTERN NV THRU LATE AFTERNOON.
HAVE MENTIONED AT LEAST VCTS IN ALL TERMINALS THRU 00Z AROUND
THE TAHOE BASIN, AND THRU 02Z FROM KRNO-KCXP TO KMMH. SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE INDICATES ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN RATHER QUICKLY BY EARLY
EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE GUSTY WINDS MORE LIKELY AFFECTING LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NV.

FOR WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY BTWN 19Z-04Z, WITH GREATER COVERAGE AND HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL SOUTH AND EAST OF WINNEMUCCA-FALLON-BRIDGEPORT
LINE. MJD
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ001.

CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING CAZ073.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)











000
FXUS65 KREV 291008
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
308 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTH INTO THE REGION WITH
VARYING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TODAY MAINLY TO SPREAD SCATTERED
STORM COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE WILL REMAIN
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL KEEP
DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION (PWATS >0.75"). THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
FOR TODAY WILL BE INSTABILITY AND VORTICITY FORCING. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VORTICITY MAX MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA
ROUGHLY OVER NORTHERN LYON COUNTY BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER,
LOCATING THESE FEATURES ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PROVES DIFFICULT
WITH THE LARGE MASS OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS NEVADA SO CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MEDIUM IN THE FORCING ASPECT. STORM LAYER WINDS ARE
LARGELY IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE SO COULD SEE HYBRID TYPE STORMS THAT
PRODUCE STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
ALTHOUGH LESS LIKELY THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAKER DCAPES
AND HIGHER SUBCLOUD LAYER HUMIDITY.

FOR WEDNESDAY, HEAVY RAINFALL AND AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING LOOK TO BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. WE CONTINUE WITH HIGH PWATS WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY PARTICULARLY ACROSS MONO, MINERAL, AND SOUTHERN LYON
COUNTIES. STORM LAYER WINDS WILL AVERAGE AGAIN BETWEEN 10-20 KTS BUT
BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTH-SOUTH WHICH MAY FAVOR TRAINING ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. BOTH THE EC AND GFS ARE DEPICTING A FAIRLY STRONG
VORTICITY MAX TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS COUPLED WITH A MODEST CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE
COUPLET ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER JET MAY FOCUS THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING PARTICULAR FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50 LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DID ALSO INSERT
MENTION OF STORMS OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY OVER PERSHING-CHURCHILL
COUNTIES WITH DYNAMIC FORCING IN PLACE.

BY THURSDAY, THE THREAT TRANSITIONS MORE TOWARDS STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS AND INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A SWATH OF DRIER AIR THAT
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WITH DCAPE
VALUES OVER 1200 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SOME DISAGREEMENT
EXISTS HOWEVER WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS DRY AIR MOVES IN WITH THE GFS
MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM STORM
THREATS, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH LOW TO
MID 90S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND MID 80S ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS.
FUENTES

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FOUR CORNERS RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A
TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE CA COAST THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 80S IN THE
SIERRA.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTION OUT OF THE NORTHERN
SIERRA AND TAHOE BASIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEVADA. BY SUNDAY, THE OFFSHORE TROUGH
STARTS TO TURN THE FLOW TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, ALLOWING
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE NORTHERN SIERRA CREST AND TAHOE
BASIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER FORCING TO KICK OFF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.

BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP OFF TO AROUND
0.60" UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL CAUSE CLOUD BASES TO INCREASE
TO OVER 15K FEET MSL. MODEST STORM MOTIONS AROUND 15KTS WILL ALLOW
FOR INCREASED SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION AND LESS RAINFALL REACHING THE
GROUND. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR NEW LIGHTNING FIRES ON
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING DEEP INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE OVER 1500 J/KG, DEMONSTRATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY POWERFUL OUTFLOW WINDS ON BOTH THOSE DAYS.

BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AS THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TURN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST, PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 0.70-0.9", ALONG WITH FOR
SLOWER STORM MOTIONS AND HIGHER POTENTIAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOON

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. STORMS WILL DEVELOPING OFF THE HIGH SIERRA
AROUND 18Z AND PUSHING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF KSVE AND NEAR
KMMH/KBAN WITH A 40% CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM DIRECTLY HITTING THE
TERMINAL. KRNO, KTRK, KTVL, KNFL, AND KLOL HAVE A SLIGHTLY LOWER
CHANCE AT AROUND 25%. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW TO 30-40 KT ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY. HOON

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 282117
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
217 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTH INTO THE REGION
WITH VARYING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALSO...AFTERNOON
WINDS WERE RAISED TO TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR SPEEDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT TOMORROW. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST WAS LEFT LARGELY AS INHERITED.

CONVECTION DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE NOON TODAY
AND IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH AND REDEVELOPING. DEW POINTS AS OF
EARLY AFTERNOON REMAIN IN THE 30S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...BUT HAVE
CREPT INTO THE 40S OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. THE DEW POINTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME DECREASE IN PWATS TUESDAY BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE WOULD BE MUCH DEEPER...AND THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
HIGHER...IF THE HIGH CENTER WAS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN IT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED. RIGHT NOW IT IS OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MORE
THAN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH OFF SHORE
THAT IS KEEPING SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE
FASTER OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THAN WE WOULD LIKE TO
SEE FOR FLASH FLOODING. THERE IS A WAVE MOVING NORTH TODAY THAT
COULD PRODUCE STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS COULD RESULT IN
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...BUT WE DO NOT THINK THE COVERAGE WOULD
SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. THIS WAVE
WILL PROGRESS INTO NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON KICKING OFF FASTER
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS RAISES SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE ELEVATED FROM
ABOUT 0.75 TO AROUND 1 INCH ALLOWING FOR MORE PRECIPITATION.
STILL...WITH STORM SPEEDS OVER 20 MPH...DRY STRIKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

SUBTLE WAVES IN THE FLOW WILL DETERMINE IN LARGE PART WHERE THE
BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY. THE AMOUNT OF
RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS WILL ALSO CONTROL THE COVERAGE. IF ENOUGH
CLOUDS EXIST EARLY EACH DAY THEN COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS
INSTABILITY IS DECREASED. THIS COULD RESULT IN MORE SHALLOW
CONVECTION WITH MAINLY SHOWERS OR VIRGA. 20/MB

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
EXTENDED FORECAST WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY, BUT PRESENCE
OF CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIP SHOULD KEEP HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 90S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
SIERRA VALLEYS. MILD NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NEAR THE SIERRA.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN IS UNLIKELY TO CHANGE VERY
MUCH. PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST US IS PROJECTED TO EXPAND
NORTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, WEAK
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN CA COAST. SOME
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY LIMIT CONVECTION FROM THE TAHOE BASIN
NORTHWARD TO SOUTHWEST LASSEN COUNTY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT LATEST
GFS/ECMWF ARE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH. THIS
WOULD BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER BACK TO THE SIERRA AND
NORTHEAST CA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SOME SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT THIS WEEKEND FROM RESIDUAL MOISTURE OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS.

BY MONDAY, THE LOW IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO DRIFT BACK NORTH AND
DECREASE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT NEAR THE TAHOE BASIN AND NORTHERN
SIERRA AGAIN. HOWEVER, THIS PROCESS MAY BE SLOW TO EVOLVE SO WHILE
THE CURRENT OUTLOOK WILL KEEP CONVECTION OUT OF TAHOE AND PARTS OF
NORTHEAST CA, THESE AREAS MAY EVENTUALLY HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER
INCLUDED.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WHERE AND WHEN THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL OCCUR. SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE FEATURES
ARE NOT RESOLVED VERY WELL IN TIMING OR LOCATION ON MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE. ON DAYS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FORCING OR UPPER DYNAMICS,
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPARSE WITH ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS
RECEIVING HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING CELLS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH. ON DAYS WHERE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS INVOLVED, THE CONVECTION WILL BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN OR LOCAL FLOODING WILL
INCREASE.

AT THIS TIME, SLIGHTLY BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE INDICATED IN
AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH THURSDAY, THEN SPREADING TO
MINERAL-MONO COUNTIES AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL NEVADA EAST OF
RENO-CARSON CITY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MJD
&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY STAY SOUTH AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 50 THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE MAIN TERMINALS, THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE AT KMMH WHERE RAIN MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING. FOR TUESDAY, THE BETTER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
IS EXPECTED NORTH OF I-80 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 BUT ISOLATED
CONVECTION COULD OCCUR ACROSS ANY PORTION OF THE REGION. SOME
OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 30-40 KT ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, OTHERWISE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MJD
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)












000
FXUS65 KREV 282117
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
217 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING NORTH INTO THE REGION
WITH VARYING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALSO...AFTERNOON
WINDS WERE RAISED TO TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR SPEEDS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT TOMORROW. OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST WAS LEFT LARGELY AS INHERITED.

CONVECTION DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA BEFORE NOON TODAY
AND IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH AND REDEVELOPING. DEW POINTS AS OF
EARLY AFTERNOON REMAIN IN THE 30S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...BUT HAVE
CREPT INTO THE 40S OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. THE DEW POINTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME DECREASE IN PWATS TUESDAY BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE WOULD BE MUCH DEEPER...AND THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
HIGHER...IF THE HIGH CENTER WAS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN IT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED. RIGHT NOW IT IS OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MORE
THAN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH OFF SHORE
THAT IS KEEPING SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. STORM MOTIONS FROM THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE
FASTER OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THAN WE WOULD LIKE TO
SEE FOR FLASH FLOODING. THERE IS A WAVE MOVING NORTH TODAY THAT
COULD PRODUCE STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS COULD RESULT IN
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...BUT WE DO NOT THINK THE COVERAGE WOULD
SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. THIS WAVE
WILL PROGRESS INTO NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON KICKING OFF FASTER
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS RAISES SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE ELEVATED FROM
ABOUT 0.75 TO AROUND 1 INCH ALLOWING FOR MORE PRECIPITATION.
STILL...WITH STORM SPEEDS OVER 20 MPH...DRY STRIKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

SUBTLE WAVES IN THE FLOW WILL DETERMINE IN LARGE PART WHERE THE
BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY. THE AMOUNT OF
RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS WILL ALSO CONTROL THE COVERAGE. IF ENOUGH
CLOUDS EXIST EARLY EACH DAY THEN COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED AS
INSTABILITY IS DECREASED. THIS COULD RESULT IN MORE SHALLOW
CONVECTION WITH MAINLY SHOWERS OR VIRGA. 20/MB

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
EXTENDED FORECAST WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS MOST AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY, BUT PRESENCE
OF CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIP SHOULD KEEP HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 90S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
SIERRA VALLEYS. MILD NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
60S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S NEAR THE SIERRA.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN IS UNLIKELY TO CHANGE VERY
MUCH. PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST US IS PROJECTED TO EXPAND
NORTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, WEAK
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN CA COAST. SOME
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY LIMIT CONVECTION FROM THE TAHOE BASIN
NORTHWARD TO SOUTHWEST LASSEN COUNTY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT LATEST
GFS/ECMWF ARE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH. THIS
WOULD BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER BACK TO THE SIERRA AND
NORTHEAST CA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SOME SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT THIS WEEKEND FROM RESIDUAL MOISTURE OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS.

BY MONDAY, THE LOW IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO DRIFT BACK NORTH AND
DECREASE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT NEAR THE TAHOE BASIN AND NORTHERN
SIERRA AGAIN. HOWEVER, THIS PROCESS MAY BE SLOW TO EVOLVE SO WHILE
THE CURRENT OUTLOOK WILL KEEP CONVECTION OUT OF TAHOE AND PARTS OF
NORTHEAST CA, THESE AREAS MAY EVENTUALLY HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER
INCLUDED.

THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WHERE AND WHEN THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL OCCUR. SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE FEATURES
ARE NOT RESOLVED VERY WELL IN TIMING OR LOCATION ON MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE. ON DAYS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT FORCING OR UPPER DYNAMICS,
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPARSE WITH ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS
RECEIVING HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING CELLS WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH. ON DAYS WHERE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS INVOLVED, THE CONVECTION WILL BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN OR LOCAL FLOODING WILL
INCREASE.

AT THIS TIME, SLIGHTLY BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE INDICATED IN
AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH THURSDAY, THEN SPREADING TO
MINERAL-MONO COUNTIES AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL NEVADA EAST OF
RENO-CARSON CITY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MJD
&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY STAY SOUTH AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 50 THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE MAIN TERMINALS, THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE AT KMMH WHERE RAIN MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING. FOR TUESDAY, THE BETTER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
IS EXPECTED NORTH OF I-80 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 BUT ISOLATED
CONVECTION COULD OCCUR ACROSS ANY PORTION OF THE REGION. SOME
OUTFLOW GUSTS TO 30-40 KT ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, OTHERWISE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. MJD
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)











000
FXUS65 KREV 280957
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WITH VARYING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. A WEATHER IMPULSE COULD LEAD TO A FEW
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY THIS WEEK WITH THICK
CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TODAY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE LACKING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS MONO-MINERAL COUNTY AS
UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES. ALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW THE
WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF RENO-TAHOE WHERE SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS
IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PWAT
VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO AN INCH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS WELL. A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL FOLLOW THIS WAVE TUE NIGHT-WED WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND A
SLIGHTLY DRIER MOISTURE PROFILE. STILL, WE EXPECT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF RENO-TAHOE.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE VERY WARM AS NIGHTTIME LOWS
START VERY WARM, NEAR 70 FOR SOME WESTERN NV VALLEYS THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH
THE NAM/GFS WERE SHOWING A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NV TONIGHT AHEAD OF WAVE. LATE DAY WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA
WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE BASIN AND RANGE/NORTHWEST NV AND MAY STAY
UP OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING, GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. HOHMANN

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH LAST HALF OF THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN OVER THE
REGION. FOUR CORNERS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIC INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MOISTURE REMAINING OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST LATE IN
THE WEEK, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD PRETTY
STABLE, BUT CONVERGENCE AREAS SUCH AS MONO-MINERAL, SIERRA FRONT,
AND LASSEN- NORTHERN WASHOE LOOK TO BE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO
DROP THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO AROUND 0.7-0.8", WITH STORMS
PICKING UP SPEED. THESE FASTER STORMS AND LESS PWAT WILL ALLOW FOR
LESS OVERALL RAINFALL AND HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES OUTSIDE THE MAIN STORM CORES.

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY WAVES THAT
WILL MOVE AROUND THE RIDGE, HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION (EVEN
POTENTIAL FOR SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND. DON`T
WANT TO GET INTO TOO MANY DETAILS FOR NOW, BECAUSE MODELS HAVE
BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT ON THE DETAILS PAST WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION
INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND DETAILS REMAINS
VERY LOW. HOON

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV AND NORTHEAST CA ON
MONDAY, BUT AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. A FEW BRIEF TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BTWN 21Z-04Z MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WITH
A 10% PROBABILITY OF AFFECTING THE KMMH AIRPORT. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT. MJD/HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 280957
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WITH VARYING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. A WEATHER IMPULSE COULD LEAD TO A FEW
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY THIS WEEK WITH THICK
CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TODAY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE LACKING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS MONO-MINERAL COUNTY AS
UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES. ALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW THE
WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF RENO-TAHOE WHERE SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS
IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PWAT
VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO AN INCH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS WELL. A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL FOLLOW THIS WAVE TUE NIGHT-WED WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND A
SLIGHTLY DRIER MOISTURE PROFILE. STILL, WE EXPECT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF RENO-TAHOE.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE VERY WARM AS NIGHTTIME LOWS
START VERY WARM, NEAR 70 FOR SOME WESTERN NV VALLEYS THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH
THE NAM/GFS WERE SHOWING A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NV TONIGHT AHEAD OF WAVE. LATE DAY WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA
WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE BASIN AND RANGE/NORTHWEST NV AND MAY STAY
UP OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING, GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. HOHMANN

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH LAST HALF OF THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN OVER THE
REGION. FOUR CORNERS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIC INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MOISTURE REMAINING OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST LATE IN
THE WEEK, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD PRETTY
STABLE, BUT CONVERGENCE AREAS SUCH AS MONO-MINERAL, SIERRA FRONT,
AND LASSEN- NORTHERN WASHOE LOOK TO BE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO
DROP THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO AROUND 0.7-0.8", WITH STORMS
PICKING UP SPEED. THESE FASTER STORMS AND LESS PWAT WILL ALLOW FOR
LESS OVERALL RAINFALL AND HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES OUTSIDE THE MAIN STORM CORES.

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY WAVES THAT
WILL MOVE AROUND THE RIDGE, HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION (EVEN
POTENTIAL FOR SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND. DON`T
WANT TO GET INTO TOO MANY DETAILS FOR NOW, BECAUSE MODELS HAVE
BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT ON THE DETAILS PAST WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION
INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND DETAILS REMAINS
VERY LOW. HOON

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV AND NORTHEAST CA ON
MONDAY, BUT AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. A FEW BRIEF TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BTWN 21Z-04Z MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WITH
A 10% PROBABILITY OF AFFECTING THE KMMH AIRPORT. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT. MJD/HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









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