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000
FXUS65 KREV 260255
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
755 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO CA NOW. THE SFC FRONT HAS PASSED
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION AND WE HAVE GOTTEN INTO THE COLDER AIR.
WITH THE FRONT TO EAST MOST OF OUR STRONGEST WINDS HAVE DECREASED
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. A PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS STILL CREATING SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NRN CA. UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM THE TAHOE BASIN
NORTHWARD IS HELPING DEVELOP HEAVIER PCPN IN SOME SPOTS BUT IT IS
NOT WIDESPREAD. UNDER THE HEAVIEST PCPN SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO
DROP TO AROUND 6500 FEET LATER TONIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER PASSES FROM ECHO SUMMIT
NORTH.

WITH THE DECREASE IN WINDS HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE WIND
ADVISORIES EARLY...EXCEPT THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TAHOE. THERE
THE BUOYS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE AGAIN. THIS WILL RUN THROUGH 11
PM. FOR PYRAMID LAKE THE OBSERVATION AT ANAHO ISLAND STILL SHOWS
GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 MPH...BUT THE LAKE IS CLOSED AFTER SUNSET SO
WILL NOT ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A FEW WIND PRONE AREAS WITH GUSTS TOPPING 45 MPH FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT THESE WILL BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE.

RH VALUES ARE INCREASING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. ALTHOUGH
WIND GUSTS IN SOME AREAS MAY CONTINUE ABOVE 30 MPH...THE STRONGEST
GUSTS HAVE PASSED AND THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL SPELL AN END
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
MILD AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK, WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN NEVADA AND
THE EASTERN SIERRA AROUND LAKE TAHOE AND ALPINE COUNTY. THE
PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN APART AS PROGGED BY MODELS NORTH OF RENO.
HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION HELD TOGETHER BETTER THAN EXPECTED FOR RENO
SOUTH TO MINDEN MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 395. NEAR THE
CREST WEST OF LAKE TAHOE THE PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVY ENOUGH TO
BRIEFLY DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO BETWEEN 6500 AND 7000 FEET AND
CAUSE SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON INTERSTATE 80 (THAT HAS SINCE MELTED).
OUTSIDE OF THE BRIEF LOWERING, SNOW LEVELS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN
ABOUT 7500 AND 8500 FEET. AS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ALOFT FILTERS IN
WITH THIS SYSTEM`S TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION TURNS
SHOWERY SNOW LEVELS WILL SLOWLY FALL TO AS LOW AS 6000-6500 FEET
ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY THEN. IN ANY CASE,
BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
AND SLICK ROADS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM TAHOE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

WIND-WISE, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 40
AND 60 MPH WERE WIDESPREAD TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO FALL OFF
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT ARE STILL HOWLING OUT IN THE BASIN AND
RANGE WITH STRONG WEST WINDS DRIVING A LARGE AREA OF DUST OFF THE
CARSON SINK (EASTERN PERSHING/CHURCHILL COUNTIES).

FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS ONE MORE DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. AT THIS TIME, IT IS FIRING UP NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
THIS IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING AND FIRE UP ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS COULD
BRING LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET. ELSEWHERE,
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY FOR MANY AREAS THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING
OFF CONSIDERABLY FOR VALLEYS AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILD IN.

SUNDAY MORNING A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER WELL NORTH OF
I-80 BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH
MONDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE AS
A COOL SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SNYDER

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING ON THE LONG TERM
ON TUESDAY. RATHER QUIET WEATHER OVERALL TUESDAY-THURSDAY. ONE
EXCEPTION IS POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTION PRECIP NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FILAMENT OF MOISTURE BREAKING OFF A MORE SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PRECIP IS ONLY MEDIUM - MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW FAR
SOUTH THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL GET.

MAIN INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM IS INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF AN
APPRECIABLE TROF MOVING INTO CA/NV FRIDAY-SATURDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS BUT OVERALL THE BIG PICTURE
PATTERN IS SIMILAR, LEADING TO MEDIUM FORECAST CONFIDENCE WHICH AT
THIS LEAD TIME ISN`T BAD. NAEFS ANOMALY CHARTS ALSO PICKING UP ON
THIS TROUGH WHICH HELPS INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN
VERIFYING. OVERALL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINIMAL. CHANCE OF
RAIN FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING FROM 10KFT TO 6-7KFT.
QPF/TIMING ARE THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES: ECMWF LIGHTER QPF BUT FASTER
WHILE GFS HAS SOME PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIP IN THE SIERRA BUT IT`S
SLOWER. NO REASON TO FAVOR ONE OUTCOME OVER THE OTHER RIGHT NOW.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY GIVEN
SFC GRADIENT AND 700MB FLOW 40-55 KTS DEPICTED IN THE GFS; TO A
LESSER EXTENT IN THE ECMWF. CS

AVIATION...
NOT EXACTLY THE MOST PLEASANT DAY FOR FLYING WITH STRONG WINDS AND
SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH MID-EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
TAFS IS MEDIUM.

WINDS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT ERRATIC AROUND RNO/CXP WITH PRECIP SPILLING
OVER AND SWITCHING WIND DIRECTION AT SFC TO W/NW. S/SW WINDS IN
FOOTHILLS YIELDING LLWS WHICH HAS BEEN REPORTED BY RECENT ARRIVALS
INTO RNO. NOT SURE HOW LONG THIS WESTERLY WIND WILL LAST SO HAVE
USED TEMPO IN TAF. THE NEXT UNCERTAINTY IS POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN
WAVE AND DOWNSLOPE WIND ENHANCEMENTS AT RNO/CXP FROM 23Z-03Z AS
WINDS ALOFT TURN MORE W/SW. IF THIS HAPPENS WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WOULD TURN MORE SSE BUT JUST OFF THE SURFACE STRONG SW WINDS OF
50KTS WOULD RESULT IN APPRECIABLE LLWS CONTINUING AT RNO/CXP. HRRR
SHOWING THIS SIGNATURE CLEARLY IN LATEST RUNS. OVERALL THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT IS ABOUT 50-60% SO HAVE
INCLUDED IN THE 18Z TAFS.

OTHERWISE MAIN ISSUE IS PRECIP IN THE SIERRA AND IN FAR WESTERN
NEVADA WEST OF HWY 395. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE -
BETWEEN NOW AND 03Z IS OPTIMAL TIME FOR COLD FRONTAL RAIN TO IMPACT
AIRFIELDS INCLUDING TRK/TVL/BRIDGEPORT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS A
GIVEN IN THE SIERRA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK SUNDAY
IN THE COOLER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. IF SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT TRK LATE TONIGHT SINCE THEY DID GET A BURST OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. CS

FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN. INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SIERRA AND ALONG THE
SIERRA FRONT HAVE HELPED TO INCREASE THE HUMIDITY IN THE RENO-CARSON
CITY-MINDEN AREAS. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE WESTERN NEVADA
SIERRA FRONT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 3PM THIS AFTERNOON.

FURTHER EAST, DRIER CONDITIONS AND STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP THE RED
FLAG WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH 8PM THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA THIS EVENING WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS, GOOD RECOVERY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
     IN NVZ002.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
     IN CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 252209
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
309 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
MILD AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK, WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN NEVADA AND
THE EASTERN SIERRA AROUND LAKE TAHOE AND ALPINE COUNTY. THE
PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN APART AS PROGGED BY MODELS NORTH OF RENO.
HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION HELD TOGETHER BETTER THAN EXPECTED FOR RENO
SOUTH TO MINDEN MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 395. NEAR THE
CREST WEST OF LAKE TAHOE THE PRECIPITATION WAS HEAVY ENOUGH TO
BRIEFLY DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO BETWEEN 6500 AND 7000 FEET AND
CAUSE SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON INTERSTATE 80 (THAT HAS SINCE MELTED).
OUTSIDE OF THE BRIEF LOWERING, SNOW LEVELS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN
ABOUT 7500 AND 8500 FEET. AS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ALOFT FILTERS IN
WITH THIS SYSTEM`S TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION TURNS
SHOWERY SNOW LEVELS WILL SLOWLY FALL TO AS LOW AS 6000-6500 FEET
ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY THEN. IN ANY CASE,
BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD CERTAINLY CAUSE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
AND SLICK ROADS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM TAHOE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

WIND-WISE, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 40
AND 60 MPH WERE WIDESPREAD TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO FALL OFF
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT ARE STILL HOWLING OUT IN THE BASIN AND
RANGE WITH STRONG WEST WINDS DRIVING A LARGE AREA OF DUST OFF THE
CARSON SINK (EASTERN PERSHING/CHURCHILL COUNTIES).

FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS ONE MORE DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. AT THIS TIME, IT IS FIRING UP NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
THIS IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
EVENING AND FIRE UP ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA, MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THIS COULD
BRING LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET. ELSEWHERE,
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY FOR MANY AREAS THIS EVENING BEFORE DYING
OFF CONSIDERABLY FOR VALLEYS AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILD IN.

SUNDAY MORNING A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER WELL NORTH OF
I-80 BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH
MONDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE AS
A COOL SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING ON THE LONG TERM
ON TUESDAY. RATHER QUIET WEATHER OVERALL TUESDAY-THURSDAY. ONE
EXCEPTION IS POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTION PRECIP NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FILAMENT OF MOISTURE BREAKING OFF A MORE SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PRECIP IS ONLY MEDIUM - MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW FAR
SOUTH THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL GET.

MAIN INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM IS INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF AN
APPRECIABLE TROF MOVING INTO CA/NV FRIDAY-SATURDAY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS BUT OVERALL THE BIG PICTURE
PATTERN IS SIMILAR, LEADING TO MEDIUM FORECAST CONFIDENCE WHICH AT
THIS LEAD TIME ISN`T BAD. NAEFS ANOMALY CHARTS ALSO PICKING UP ON
THIS TROUGH WHICH HELPS INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN
VERIFYING. OVERALL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MINIMAL. CHANCE OF
RAIN FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING FROM 10KFT TO 6-7KFT.
QPF/TIMING ARE THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES: ECMWF LIGHTER QPF BUT FASTER
WHILE GFS HAS SOME PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIP IN THE SIERRA BUT IT`S
SLOWER. NO REASON TO FAVOR ONE OUTCOME OVER THE OTHER RIGHT NOW.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY GIVEN
SFC GRADIENT AND 700MB FLOW 40-55 KTS DEPICTED IN THE GFS; TO A
LESSER EXTENT IN THE ECMWF. CS

&&

.AVIATION...
NOT EXACTLY THE MOST PLEASANT DAY FOR FLYING WITH STRONG WINDS AND
SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH MID-EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
TAFS IS MEDIUM.

WINDS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT ERRATIC AROUND RNO/CXP WITH PRECIP SPILLING
OVER AND SWITCHING WIND DIRECTION AT SFC TO W/NW. S/SW WINDS IN
FOOTHILLS YIELDING LLWS WHICH HAS BEEN REPORTED BY RECENT ARRIVALS
INTO RNO. NOT SURE HOW LONG THIS WESTERLY WIND WILL LAST SO HAVE
USED TEMPO IN TAF. THE NEXT UNCERTAINTY IS POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN
WAVE AND DOWNSLOPE WIND ENHANCEMENTS AT RNO/CXP FROM 23Z-03Z AS
WINDS ALOFT TURN MORE W/SW. IF THIS HAPPENS WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WOULD TURN MORE SSE BUT JUST OFF THE SURFACE STRONG SW WINDS OF
50KTS WOULD RESULT IN APPRECIABLE LLWS CONTINUING AT RNO/CXP. HRRR
SHOWING THIS SIGNATURE CLEARLY IN LATEST RUNS. OVERALL THE
PROBABILITY OF THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT IS ABOUT 50-60% SO HAVE
INCLUDED IN THE 18Z TAFS.

OTHERWISE MAIN ISSUE IS PRECIP IN THE SIERRA AND IN FAR WESTERN
NEVADA WEST OF HWY 395. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE -
BETWEEN NOW AND 03Z IS OPTIMAL TIME FOR COLD FRONTAL RAIN TO IMPACT
AIRFIELDS INCLUDING TRK/TVL/BRIDGEPORT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS A
GIVEN IN THE SIERRA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK SUNDAY
IN THE COOLER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. IF SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT TRK LATE TONIGHT SINCE THEY DID GET A BURST OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. CS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES IN. INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SIERRA AND ALONG THE
SIERRA FRONT HAVE HELPED TO INCREASE THE HUMIDITY IN THE RENO-CARSON
CITY-MINDEN AREAS. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE WESTERN NEVADA
SIERRA FRONT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 3PM THIS AFTERNOON.

FURTHER EAST, DRIER CONDITIONS AND STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP THE RED
FLAG WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH 8PM THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA THIS EVENING WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS, GOOD RECOVERY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
HOON

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ003-005.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
     IN NVZ002.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ453-459.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ001-004.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ070-071.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
     IN CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 251745 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1045 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...

NOT EXACTLY THE MOST PLEASANT DAY FOR FLYING WITH STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MID-EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
TAFS IS MEDIUM TO HIGH. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS POTENTIAL FOR
MOUNTAIN WAVE AND DOWNSLOPE WIND ENHANCEMENTS AT RNO/CXP FROM
23Z-03Z AS WINDS ALOFT TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. IF THIS HAPPENS
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WOULD TURN MORE SSE BUT JUST OFF THE SURFACE
STRONG SW WINDS OF 50KTS WOULD RESULT IN APPRECIABLE LLWS AT
RNO/CXP. HRRR SHOWING THIS SIGNATURE CLEARLY IN LATEST RUNS. OVERALL
THE PROBABILITY OF THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT IS ABOUT 60% SO HAVE
INCLUDED IN THE 18Z TAFS. CS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY, BRINGING
A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
EARLY SUNDAY WITH MILDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD-FRONTAL RAIN BAND ALONG THE NORTHERN
CA COAST THIS MORNING, MOVING EAST AS EXPECTED. AS SUCH, THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE EAST OF THE
SIERRA BY NOON AND INTO EASTERN NV THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTH
WIND GUSTS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SIERRA RIDGES AND HAVE
ALREADY SURFACED IN SOME SIERRA VALLEYS. ELSEWHERE. A SUDDEN ONSET
OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL SURFACE EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW
MORNING INVERSIONS QUICKLY MIX OUT. COMMUNITIES SHOULD PREPARE
FOR GUSTS 40-55 MPH TODAY, AND UP TO 65 MPH OR HIGHER FOR WIND
PRONE LOCATIONS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A TRAVEL HAZARD FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES, HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ON TAHOE AND
PYRAMID LAKES, AND LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING DUST IN THE NV
BASIN AND RANGE. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR EASTERN
SIERRA AND WESTERN NV ZONES.

COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND
FALLING APART AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND WESTERN
NV. HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT THE FRONTAL BAND
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION TO SIERRA VALLEYS, BUT WITH
PRECIPITATION RATES DROPPING OFF QUICKLY EAST OF THE CREST. STORM
TOTALS THROUGH TONIGHT COULD REACH AROUND 0.75 INCHES NEAR THE
CREST IN PLUMAS AND LASSEN COUNTIES BUT WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS.
SNOW LEVELS CURRENTLY AT 8000-9000 FEET WILL LOWER TO 7000-7500
FEET TONIGHT. HOWEVER, BY THE TIME SNOW LEVELS DROP BELOW 8000 FEET
TONIGHT, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE DIMINISHED BUT AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE NEAR THE NORTHERN SIERRA CREST.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GENERALLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH, WITH
DRIER MORE STABLE AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FOR AN END TO ANY SHOWERS
BY AFTERNOON. IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT (HIGH CLOUDS IN
SOME MODELS), WE COULD FINALLY SEE A WIDESPREAD FREEZE WHICH
WOULD INCLUDE THE LOWER VALLEYS. JCM

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOME CHANGES ARE EVIDENT IN THE GUIDANCE THIS MORNING FOR NEXT WEEK,
BUT THEY ARE NOT HUGE CHANGES. THE ONE NOTICEABLE THING THIS MORNING
IS BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH FOR LATE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND. A FEW
MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE BASED ON THE LATEST THINKING.

FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED NORTH
WITH THE JET OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THEY NOW SHOW A LIMITED
EFFECT FROM THE TRAILING FRONT NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. WINDS ALOFT
ARE WEAKER THIS MORNING AND THE THREAT FOR PRECIP HAS ALSO BEEN
REDUCED AMONGST THE MODELS. SINCE THIS TREND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS, TRIMMED BACK POPS FURTHER NORTH TO NEAR THE
OREGON BORDER.

AS FOR LATE WEEK, THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO A COMPROMISE SOLUTION
FROM THE 00Z FRIDAY EC/GFS SOLUTIONS. THE EC HAS SPED UP THIS
MORNING AND THE GFS SLOWED DOWN. THE EC ENSEMBLE IS ALSO SHOWING
CONSIDERABLY LESS SPREAD THIS MORNING WITH THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY NOW
IN THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH FOR LATE WEEK AND NOT AS MUCH IN THE
TIMING. BOTH MODELS HAVE A DECENT RIDGE THURSDAY THAT MOVES EAST
SLOWLY FRIDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THE NEXT TROUGH IN FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE EC WAITS UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EC ENSEMBLE REPRESENTS A GOOD
COMPROMISE SO HELD OFF ANY CHANCE POPS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
WHILE THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY, IT IS LESS THAN
YESTERDAY AND CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THE 7-8 DAY PERIOD.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, THEY WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
BY MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN WESTERN NEVADA AND LOW 60S IN
SIERRA VALLEYS. TEMPS WILL COOL FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH MOVES
IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. FOR MAIN TERMINALS IN SIERRA/EXTREME WESTERN NEVADA,
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH 21Z WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS.
LLWS IS LIKELY WITH MTN WAVE TURBULENCE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
FURTHER EAST NEAR HIGHWAY 95, PEAK WINDS TO BE FROM 18-00Z.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP WHICH WILL START IN WESTERN LASSEN
COUNTY BY 18Z AND HIT THE TAHOE BASIN AROUND 21Z. MAIN BAND WILL
ONLY LAST 2-3 HRS WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY AND LCL IFR CONDS IN THE
SIERRA. FOR WRN NEVADA, EXPECT MAINLY VFR IN ISOLD/SCT -SHRA AT BEST.
OCNL -SHRA TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY NORTH OF
KTRK/KRNO WITH LCL MVFR CIGS IN THE SIERRA.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER
WINDS, PRIMARILY WNW WITH PEAK GUSTS 20 KTS. WALLMANN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ON THE RIDGES AND MID SLOPES.
RH RECOVERY HAS BEEN POOR SO FAR WITH MANY LOCATIONS STILL IN THE
TEENS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-80. AS THE COLD
FRONT NEARS, WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 55 MPH
FROM THE S-SW ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA. RH WILL BE LOWEST SOUTH OF I-80
WITH MINIMUMS 10-20%. THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS ON TRACK.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SIERRA FRONT
(ZONE 450) AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RH WILL ALSO INCREASE
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL NOT WEAKEN UNTIL AFTER 00Z
FOR THE HIGHWAY 95 CORRIDOR FURTHER EAST AS THE FRONT WILL TAKE
LONGER TO GET THERE. BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT, EXPECT GOOD RH
RECOVERY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     NVZ003-005.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
     IN NVZ002.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     NVZ453-459.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     NVZ001-004.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON NVZ450.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     CAZ070-071.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
     IN CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)













000
FXUS65 KREV 251745 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1045 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION UPDATE...

NOT EXACTLY THE MOST PLEASANT DAY FOR FLYING WITH STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MID-EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
TAFS IS MEDIUM TO HIGH. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS POTENTIAL FOR
MOUNTAIN WAVE AND DOWNSLOPE WIND ENHANCEMENTS AT RNO/CXP FROM
23Z-03Z AS WINDS ALOFT TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. IF THIS HAPPENS
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WOULD TURN MORE SSE BUT JUST OFF THE SURFACE
STRONG SW WINDS OF 50KTS WOULD RESULT IN APPRECIABLE LLWS AT
RNO/CXP. HRRR SHOWING THIS SIGNATURE CLEARLY IN LATEST RUNS. OVERALL
THE PROBABILITY OF THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT IS ABOUT 60% SO HAVE
INCLUDED IN THE 18Z TAFS. CS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY, BRINGING
A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
EARLY SUNDAY WITH MILDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD-FRONTAL RAIN BAND ALONG THE NORTHERN
CA COAST THIS MORNING, MOVING EAST AS EXPECTED. AS SUCH, THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE EAST OF THE
SIERRA BY NOON AND INTO EASTERN NV THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTH
WIND GUSTS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SIERRA RIDGES AND HAVE
ALREADY SURFACED IN SOME SIERRA VALLEYS. ELSEWHERE. A SUDDEN ONSET
OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL SURFACE EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW
MORNING INVERSIONS QUICKLY MIX OUT. COMMUNITIES SHOULD PREPARE
FOR GUSTS 40-55 MPH TODAY, AND UP TO 65 MPH OR HIGHER FOR WIND
PRONE LOCATIONS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A TRAVEL HAZARD FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES, HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ON TAHOE AND
PYRAMID LAKES, AND LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING DUST IN THE NV
BASIN AND RANGE. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR EASTERN
SIERRA AND WESTERN NV ZONES.

COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND
FALLING APART AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND WESTERN
NV. HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT THE FRONTAL BAND
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION TO SIERRA VALLEYS, BUT WITH
PRECIPITATION RATES DROPPING OFF QUICKLY EAST OF THE CREST. STORM
TOTALS THROUGH TONIGHT COULD REACH AROUND 0.75 INCHES NEAR THE
CREST IN PLUMAS AND LASSEN COUNTIES BUT WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS.
SNOW LEVELS CURRENTLY AT 8000-9000 FEET WILL LOWER TO 7000-7500
FEET TONIGHT. HOWEVER, BY THE TIME SNOW LEVELS DROP BELOW 8000 FEET
TONIGHT, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE DIMINISHED BUT AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE NEAR THE NORTHERN SIERRA CREST.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GENERALLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH, WITH
DRIER MORE STABLE AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FOR AN END TO ANY SHOWERS
BY AFTERNOON. IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT (HIGH CLOUDS IN
SOME MODELS), WE COULD FINALLY SEE A WIDESPREAD FREEZE WHICH
WOULD INCLUDE THE LOWER VALLEYS. JCM

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOME CHANGES ARE EVIDENT IN THE GUIDANCE THIS MORNING FOR NEXT WEEK,
BUT THEY ARE NOT HUGE CHANGES. THE ONE NOTICEABLE THING THIS MORNING
IS BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH FOR LATE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND. A FEW
MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE BASED ON THE LATEST THINKING.

FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED NORTH
WITH THE JET OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THEY NOW SHOW A LIMITED
EFFECT FROM THE TRAILING FRONT NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. WINDS ALOFT
ARE WEAKER THIS MORNING AND THE THREAT FOR PRECIP HAS ALSO BEEN
REDUCED AMONGST THE MODELS. SINCE THIS TREND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS, TRIMMED BACK POPS FURTHER NORTH TO NEAR THE
OREGON BORDER.

AS FOR LATE WEEK, THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO A COMPROMISE SOLUTION
FROM THE 00Z FRIDAY EC/GFS SOLUTIONS. THE EC HAS SPED UP THIS
MORNING AND THE GFS SLOWED DOWN. THE EC ENSEMBLE IS ALSO SHOWING
CONSIDERABLY LESS SPREAD THIS MORNING WITH THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY NOW
IN THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH FOR LATE WEEK AND NOT AS MUCH IN THE
TIMING. BOTH MODELS HAVE A DECENT RIDGE THURSDAY THAT MOVES EAST
SLOWLY FRIDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THE NEXT TROUGH IN FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE EC WAITS UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EC ENSEMBLE REPRESENTS A GOOD
COMPROMISE SO HELD OFF ANY CHANCE POPS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
WHILE THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY, IT IS LESS THAN
YESTERDAY AND CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THE 7-8 DAY PERIOD.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, THEY WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
BY MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN WESTERN NEVADA AND LOW 60S IN
SIERRA VALLEYS. TEMPS WILL COOL FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH MOVES
IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. FOR MAIN TERMINALS IN SIERRA/EXTREME WESTERN NEVADA,
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH 21Z WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS.
LLWS IS LIKELY WITH MTN WAVE TURBULENCE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
FURTHER EAST NEAR HIGHWAY 95, PEAK WINDS TO BE FROM 18-00Z.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP WHICH WILL START IN WESTERN LASSEN
COUNTY BY 18Z AND HIT THE TAHOE BASIN AROUND 21Z. MAIN BAND WILL
ONLY LAST 2-3 HRS WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY AND LCL IFR CONDS IN THE
SIERRA. FOR WRN NEVADA, EXPECT MAINLY VFR IN ISOLD/SCT -SHRA AT BEST.
OCNL -SHRA TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY NORTH OF
KTRK/KRNO WITH LCL MVFR CIGS IN THE SIERRA.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER
WINDS, PRIMARILY WNW WITH PEAK GUSTS 20 KTS. WALLMANN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ON THE RIDGES AND MID SLOPES.
RH RECOVERY HAS BEEN POOR SO FAR WITH MANY LOCATIONS STILL IN THE
TEENS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-80. AS THE COLD
FRONT NEARS, WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 55 MPH
FROM THE S-SW ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA. RH WILL BE LOWEST SOUTH OF I-80
WITH MINIMUMS 10-20%. THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS ON TRACK.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SIERRA FRONT
(ZONE 450) AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RH WILL ALSO INCREASE
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL NOT WEAKEN UNTIL AFTER 00Z
FOR THE HIGHWAY 95 CORRIDOR FURTHER EAST AS THE FRONT WILL TAKE
LONGER TO GET THERE. BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT, EXPECT GOOD RH
RECOVERY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     NVZ003-005.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
     IN NVZ002.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     NVZ453-459.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     NVZ001-004.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON NVZ450.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     CAZ070-071.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
     IN CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)













000
FXUS65 KREV 250959
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
259 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY, BRINGING
A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
EARLY SUNDAY WITH MILDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD-FRONTAL RAIN BAND ALONG THE NORTHERN
CA COAST THIS MORNING, MOVING EAST AS EXPECTED. AS SUCH, THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE EAST OF THE
SIERRA BY NOON AND INTO EASTERN NV THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTH
WIND GUSTS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SIERRA RIDGES AND HAVE
ALREADY SURFACED IN SOME SIERRA VALLEYS. ELSEWHERE. A SUDDEN ONSET
OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL SURFACE EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW
MORNING INVERSIONS QUICKLY MIX OUT. COMMUNITIES SHOULD PREPARE
FOR GUSTS 40-55 MPH TODAY, AND UP TO 65 MPH OR HIGHER FOR WIND
PRONE LOCATIONS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A TRAVEL HAZARD FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES, HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ON TAHOE AND
PYRAMID LAKES, AND LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING DUST IN THE NV
BASIN AND RANGE. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR EASTERN
SIERRA AND WESTERN NV ZONES.

COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND
FALLING APART AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND WESTERN
NV. HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT THE FRONTAL BAND
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION TO SIERRA VALLEYS, BUT WITH
PRECIPITATION RATES DROPPING OFF QUICKLY EAST OF THE CREST. STORM
TOTALS THROUGH TONIGHT COULD REACH AROUND 0.75 INCHES NEAR THE
CREST IN PLUMAS AND LASSEN COUNTIES BUT WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS.
SNOW LEVELS CURRENTLY AT 8000-9000 FEET WILL LOWER TO 7000-7500
FEET TONIGHT. HOWEVER, BY THE TIME SNOW LEVELS DROP BELOW 8000 FEET
TONIGHT, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE DIMINISHED BUT AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE NEAR THE NORTHERN SIERRA CREST.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GENERALLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH, WITH
DRIER MORE STABLE AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FOR AN END TO ANY SHOWERS
BY AFTERNOON. IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT (HIGH CLOUDS IN
SOME MODELS), WE COULD FINALLY SEE A WIDESPREAD FREEZE WHICH
WOULD INCLUDE THE LOWER VALLEYS. JCM

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOME CHANGES ARE EVIDENT IN THE GUIDANCE THIS MORNING FOR NEXT WEEK,
BUT THEY ARE NOT HUGE CHANGES. THE ONE NOTICEABLE THING THIS MORNING
IS BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH FOR LATE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND. A FEW
MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE BASED ON THE LATEST THINKING.

FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED NORTH
WITH THE JET OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THEY NOW SHOW A LIMITED
EFFECT FROM THE TRAILING FRONT NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. WINDS ALOFT
ARE WEAKER THIS MORNING AND THE THREAT FOR PRECIP HAS ALSO BEEN
REDUCED AMONGST THE MODELS. SINCE THIS TREND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS, TRIMMED BACK POPS FURTHER NORTH TO NEAR THE
OREGON BORDER.

AS FOR LATE WEEK, THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO A COMPROMISE SOLUTION
FROM THE 00Z FRIDAY EC/GFS SOLUTIONS. THE EC HAS SPED UP THIS
MORNING AND THE GFS SLOWED DOWN. THE EC ENSEMBLE IS ALSO SHOWING
CONSIDERABLY LESS SPREAD THIS MORNING WITH THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY NOW
IN THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH FOR LATE WEEK AND NOT AS MUCH IN THE
TIMING. BOTH MODELS HAVE A DECENT RIDGE THURSDAY THAT MOVES EAST
SLOWLY FRIDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THE NEXT TROUGH IN FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE EC WAITS UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EC ENSEMBLE REPRESENTS A GOOD
COMPROMISE SO HELD OFF ANY CHANCE POPS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
WHILE THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY, IT IS LESS THAN
YESTERDAY AND CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THE 7-8 DAY PERIOD.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, THEY WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
BY MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 IN WESTERN NEVADA AND LOW 60S IN
SIERRA VALLEYS. TEMPS WILL COOL FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH MOVES
IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. FOR MAIN TERMINALS IN SIERRA/EXTREME WESTERN NEVADA,
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH 21Z WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 40 KTS.
LLWS IS LIKELY WITH MTN WAVE TURBULENCE DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
FURTHER EAST NEAR HIGHWAY 95, PEAK WINDS TO BE FROM 18-00Z.

OTHER CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP WHICH WILL START IN WESTERN LASSEN
COUNTY BY 18Z AND HIT THE TAHOE BASIN AROUND 21Z. MAIN BAND WILL
ONLY LAST 2-3 HRS WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS LIKELY AND LCL IFR CONDS IN THE
SIERRA. FOR WRN NEVADA, EXPECT MAINLY VFR IN ISOLD/SCT -SHRA AT BEST.
OCNL -SHRA TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY NORTH OF
KTRK/KRNO WITH LCL MVFR CIGS IN THE SIERRA.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS AFTER 12Z SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER
WINDS, PRIMARILY WNW WITH PEAK GUSTS 20 KTS. WALLMANN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ON THE RIDGES AND MID SLOPES.
RH RECOVERY HAS BEEN POOR SO FAR WITH MANY LOCATIONS STILL IN THE
TEENS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-80. AS THE COLD
FRONT NEARS, WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WITH PEAK GUSTS TO 55 MPH
FROM THE S-SW ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA. RH WILL BE LOWEST SOUTH OF I-80
WITH MINIMUMS 10-20%. THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS ON TRACK.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SIERRA FRONT
(ZONE 450) AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RH WILL ALSO INCREASE
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL NOT WEAKEN UNTIL AFTER 00Z
FOR THE HIGHWAY 95 CORRIDOR FURTHER EAST AS THE FRONT WILL TAKE
LONGER TO GET THERE. BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT, EXPECT GOOD RH
RECOVERY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     NVZ003-005.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
     IN NVZ002.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     NVZ453-459.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     NVZ001-004.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT THIS
     AFTERNOON NVZ450.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     CAZ070-071.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE
     IN CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 242218
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
318 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND ON SATURDAY,
BRINGING A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY WITH MILDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
RAISED POP FURTHER FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN
SIERRA SATURDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 550 MILES WEST OF SAN FRANCISCO
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA TOMORROW MORNING AND
INCREASE THE THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN GREAT
BASIN.

WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING DOWN OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. HOWEVER, WINDS
WILL INCREASE FURTHER SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND
INCREASES THE GRADIENT. WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING A GRADIENT DRIVEN-
EVENT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 395 DO NOT TYPICALLY HAVE STRONGER WINDS THAN THE LEESIDE
VALLEYS. IN FACT, FOR THE RENO-SPARKS AREA WINDS ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 395 TEND TO BE THE STRONGEST, AT LEAST UNTIL FROPA WHEN
WINDS ALOFT SWITCH TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT (FAVORED FOR STRONGER FOOTHILL
WINDS).

ELSEWHERE ON SATURDAY, THE BASIN AND RANGE EAST OF RENO WAS ADDED
TO THE WIND ADVISORY AS THE GRADIENT-DRIVEN PATTERN FAVORS STRONG
WINDS FOR ALL AREAS NEAR AND AFTER FROPA VERSUS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WOULD FAVOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA.
ONE AREA THAT MAY SEE AN ADDED BOOST TO WINDS MAY BE ALONG HIGHWAY
395 BETWEEN SUSANVILLE AND DOYLE AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS MORE
PERPENDICULAR TO THE DIAMOND RANGE AND COULD ENHANCE THE CHANCE
FOR DOWNSLOPING IN THAT AREA.

PRECIPITATION-WISE, THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO FALL APART AS IT MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WITH THE UPPER FORCING
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR THE CREST NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50,
THE OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE DEPTH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, WITH MOISTURE AND FORCING
WANING PRECIPITATION SHOULD DROP OFF QUICKLY EAST OF THE CREST.
SATURDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE ONE MORE SHOT OF PRECIPITATION AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES AROUND THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE RESTRICTED MAINLY TO
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA AS THE DISTURBANCE
IS A GLANCING BLOW WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

SUNDAY MORNING WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GENERALLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH, WITH DRIER
MORE STABLE AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FOR AND END TO ANY SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING (ALTHOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE). IF SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT (HIGH CLOUDS IN SOME MODELS), WE COULD
FINALLY SEE A WIDESPREAD FREEZE FOR MOST LOWER VALLEYS THAT HAVE
NOT ALREADY SEEN A FREEZE. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO MAJOR SHIFTS FROM THE PREVIOUS THINKING FOR THIS FORECAST.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AS DETERMINISTIC RUNS TRY TO RESOLVE MAJOR
FEATURES LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE TWO SYSTEMS IN QUESTION; THE
FIRST SKIRTING OUR NORTHERN ZONES MIDWEEK AND THE SECOND APPROACHING
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM, WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS THE PRIMARY MOISTURE PLUME IS DIRECTED
NORTHWARD IN THE CASCADES. STILL, WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
AS FAR SOUTH AS TRUCKEE IN THE SIERRA. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
TROUBLE RESOLVING THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM AND HAVE CHANGED YET AGAIN.
THEY NOW SHOW A MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAT WOULD SLOW DOWN AND
WEAKEN THE APPROACHING WAVE. HAVE BEGUN TO TRIM PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BACK TOWARD THE SIERRA CREST, BUT WILL NOT REMOVE COMPLETELY
UNTIL THE GFS AND ECMWF GAIN SOME STABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPRESSED SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES DUE
TO AMPLE CLOUD COVER EACH DAY. DID LOWER THE NORTHERN ZONES A DEGREE
OR TWO FOR WEDNESDAY SLOWING THE OVERALL WARMING TREND CLOSER TO THE
OREGON BORDER. OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 60S FOR
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN TYPICAL IN THE
LOW 40S IN WESTERN NEVADA AND AROUND FREEZING IN SIERRA VALLEYS.
BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE
UP TO 30 KTS. TVL WILL LIKELY BE THE BREEZIEST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
TENDS TO CHANNEL WINDS THROUGH LOCAL VALLEYS; GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY, THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES IN WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT.
WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH SOME MTN WAVE
TURBULENCE. AFTER 12Z SAT, THE WINDS INCREASE WITH TURBULENCE AND
LLWS LIKELY WHERE WINDS ARE CHANNELED BY STRONG WINDS ALOFT. IN
GENERAL, EXPECT SW WINDS OF 25-30 KT AT THE TERMINALS WITH GUSTS
40-45 KTS AFT 15Z POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH 00Z SUN. SIERRA FRONT
TERMINALS, KRNO AND KCXP, MAY SEE BRIEF BUT HIGHER WINDS SUSTAINED
AROUND 35 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS.

AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS, EXPECT SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN -RA WITH
MTN OBSCN. THIS WILL BEGIN OVER WESTERN LASSEN DOWN THROUGH THE
TAHOE BASIN BY 18Z AND SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE SIERRA FRONT BY
00Z. THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL REMAIN IN THE SIERRA. WALLMANN/BOYD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS PEAKING
OUT AROUND 30-35 MPH. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. THE INCREASED WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS
MIXED, WITH MODERATE TO POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE AFTER THE SUN COMES UP SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN UP IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING
FRONT.

RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN NEVADA ON SATURDAY,
AS STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH OR MORE WILL COMBINE WITH
MODERATELY DRY CONDITIONS. WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THE HUMIDITY
WON`T GET DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, ALTHOUGH WITH STRONG WINDS OF
THIS MAGNITUDE THE CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE THERE. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 1100-1700 SATURDAY, AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
RENO-CARSON CITY-MINDEN AREAS AROUND 1400-1600 SATURDAY, WITH THE
MOST CRITICAL TIMING AROUND MID DAY. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL HELP INCREASE HUMIDITY AND DAMPEN THE WINDS A BIT
ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT, WHILE CRITICAL CONDITIONS EAST OF RENO WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 2000. HOON

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY NVZ003-005.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR LAKE TAHOE IN NVZ002.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY NVZ453-459.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY NVZ001-004.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY NVZ450.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY CAZ070-071.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR LAKE TAHOE IN CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)












000
FXUS65 KREV 241016
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
316 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WARM AND SUNNY AFTERNOON TODAY, LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST
COAST WILL MOVE INLAND ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A PERIOD OF STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY, WITH MILD
AND DRIER CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. AN OFFSHORE TROUGH
DIGGING ALONG 130W WILL CREATE A WARM AND BREEZY AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN NV AND THE SIERRA TODAY. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW HUMIDITY FOR A MODERATE FIRE THREAT ACROSS
WESTERN NV THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGE LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
MARKEDLY TODAY AND THIS EVENING, AND WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AT
LAKE TAHOE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT STARTING LATE THIS
EVENING.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE, WINDS AT RIDGE LEVEL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME
ISOLATED DOWNSLOPE GUSTS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY MORNING,
BUT THIS POTENTIAL IS LIMITED BECAUSE RIDGE LEVEL WINDS ARE
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST AND NOT DIRECTLY CROSS-BARRIER. NONETHELESS,
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR SATURDAY INCLUDING THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR FROM LASSEN
SOUTHWARD TO MONO COUNTY AND ALSO FOR NORTHWEST NV, FOR GUSTS UP
TO 55 MPH. STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH ARE FORECAST FOR WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS ARE LESS LIKELY TO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN WEST CENTRAL NV, AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT COULD ALSO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NV, SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION.

RAIN IS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING FROM THE TAHOE
BASIN NORTHWARD. STORM TOTALS BY SUNDAY MORNING OF AROUND 0.20
INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT SOUTH LAKE TAHOE, AND 0.25-0.50 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH FOR NORTHEAST CA INCLUDING PLUMAS AND
LASSEN COUNTIES, AND FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 9000 FEET SATURDAY WILL LOWER TO
7000-7500 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, BY THE TIME SNOW
LEVELS DROP BELOW 8000 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT, MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE DIMINISHED. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAY
ACCUMULATE ON HIGHER PEAKS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT MOUNTAIN PASSES. JCM/MJD

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
I MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY MID-LATE WEEK. EARLY ON, THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE JET REMAINING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE WEAKENING
FRONT DRAGGING ACROSS SOMETIME WEDNESDAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MIDWEEK AFTER A COOL DAY MONDAY.

LATE WEEK, THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE GFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE, WINDIER AND WETTER ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM. THE EC CUTS THE NEXT SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WITH A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THESE RUNS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED WITH EACH
OTHER THE PAST 36 HOURS WHEN THE GFS WAS RIDGY AND THE EC SHOWED THE
TROUGH. I BELIEVE THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO. IT
SHOWS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY, BUT IT IS ALSO MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE
EC BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE FORECAST REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE, BUT RETAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP
FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK. IF ANYTHING, I BELIEVE WE MAY BE UNDERDOING
IT JUST A BIT AS WE GET TO FRIDAY. LEFT TEMPS MILD AS WINDS AND
MIXING WILL OFFSET ANY COOLING ALOFT AT LEAST INITIALLY. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS NEAR THE SIERRA. ANY LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS
THE JET LIFTS NORTH.

SATURDAY, THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES IN WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT.
WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH SOME MTN WAVE
TURBULENCE. AFTER 12Z SAT, THE WINDS INCREASE WITH TURBULENCE AND
LLWS LIKELY WHERE WINDS ARE CHANNELED BY STRONG WINDS ALOFT. IN
GENERAL, EXPECT SW WINDS OF 25-30 KT AT THE TERMINALS WITH GUSTS
40-45 KTS AFT 15Z POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH 00Z SUN.

AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS, EXPECT SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN -RA WITH
MTN OBSCN. THIS WILL BEGIN OVER WESTERN LASSEN BY 18Z AND SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHEAST TO I-80 BY 00Z. THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL REMAIN IN THE
SIERRA. WALLMANN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH WITH RH AROUND
10-15%. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE SATURDAY AS STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO LASSEN COUNTY AROUND 18Z AND THROUGH THE
I-80 CORRIDOR NEAR 00Z AND MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES BY 04Z.

WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GUST TO 55 MPH AND LOCALLY HIGHER
IN WIND PRONE AREAS. THE AREA OF BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE SOUTH OF
I-80 IN WESTERN NEVADA. RH WILL BE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
TODAY NORTH OF I-80 SO IT IS LESS OF A CONCERN THERE. WITH AREAS
SOUTH OF I-80 REMAINING AHEAD OF THE FRONT LONGEST, RH LOOKS TO
DROP TO 15-25%. COMBINED WITH THESE STRONG WINDS, CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO GUST ALONG THE HIGHWAY
95 CORRIDOR AS THE PEAK OF THE WINDS AND THE FRONTAL TIMING IS
IDEAL FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE. WILL HOIST A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM SATURDAY FOR NV ZONES 450, 453 AND 459. I
BELIEVE 453/459 STAND THE BEST CHANCE SINCE THEY WILL BE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT LONGER, BUT 450 COULD HIT FOR A WHILE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY NVZ003-005.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR LAKE TAHOE IN NVZ002.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING NVZ450-453-459.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PYRAMID
     LAKE IN NVZ004.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY CAZ070-071.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
     FOR LAKE TAHOE IN CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 240141
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
641 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
JUST A MINOR UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDS DECREASING
A BIT FASTER THAN FORECAST OVER THE TAHOE BASIN BUT A BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER EARLY INTO THE WRN NV BASIN AND RANGE. CLOUDS OVER THE
SRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE PLUME
OVER THE NRN CWA LIFTS TO THE NORTH. LESSENING POPS THROUGH THE
NIGHT IS HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE FAR NRN CWA. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

LIGHT RAIN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS ALSO DECREASING. AFTER A WARM AND
SUNNY FRIDAY, LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND ON
SATURDAY, BRINGING A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH LIGHT
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY, WITH MILD AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS NORTHEAST CA AND FAR
NORTHWEST NV WITH RAINFALL RATES LESS THAN 0.05 INCH PER HOUR.
THIS RAIN BAND WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH DURING THE EVENING AND
PUSH FARTHER NORTH. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION, CLOUD COVER
WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY, WITH FULL SUN AND MODERATE SOUTH WIND GUSTS OF 20-30
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON, HIGH ARE LIKELY TO REACH 80 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN NV, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 95 FROM FALLON SOUTHWARD. RIDGE LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH MIXING DOWN
TO LAKE TAHOE SO THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL GO IN EFFECT STARTING
LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

ON SATURDAY, THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS
PRESSURE AND THERMAL GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. WE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE HIGHWAY
395 CORRIDOR FROM LASSEN SOUTHWARD TO MONO COUNTY, AND ALSO FOR
NORTHWEST NV. AREAS PRONE TO STRONGER SOUTH WINDS INCLUDING THE
RENO AIRPORT COULD RECEIVE THEIR STRONGEST GUSTS DURING THE MID-
LATE MORNING HOURS, BUT THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS ARE LESS LIKELY TO
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN WEST CENTRAL NV, AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS FEED OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WEAKENS WHEN IT REACHES THE SIERRA. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR OTHER RECENT TROUGH PASSAGES, THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STEADY RAIN WILL BE IN WESTERN LASSEN AND CENTRAL
PLUMAS COUNTIES, WITH UP TO 0.50 INCH POSSIBLE. LESSER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FOR TAHOE AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, WITH LITTLE
TO NO MEASURABLE RAIN RAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE RENO-CARSON CITY
AREA.

AS THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING, A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MAINLY NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH, WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. BY THE
TIME SNOW LEVELS DROP BELOW 8000 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT, MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE DIMINISHED. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAY
ACCUMULATE ON SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
NORTHERN SIERRA BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT MOUNTAIN PASSES. MJD

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS. LOW PRESSURE EXITS
SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING RAPIDLY INTO EASTERN
OREGON AND IDAHO. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW WHEREAS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS GENERALLY OVER 7000 FEET
WOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET WILL BE MINIMAL
AND PREVIOUS RAINS SHOULD SEVERELY LIMIT IMPACTS OVER AREA PASSES.
RIDGING BUILDS IN BY MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND.

LATER IN THE PERIOD, FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOWER END
OF THE SPECTRUM AS RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS DEGRADED OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS. DUE TO RUN-TO-RUN DISCREPANCIES, HAVE ONLY MARGINALLY
TRENDED TOWARDS CURRENT SOLUTIONS. PREVIOUS RUNS GENERALLY DEPICTED
A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN SIERRA BY MID WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS
THE ECMWF WHERE RIDGING IS MORE PRONOUNCED. HAVE BEGUN TO SHUNT
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
IN THE SIERRA WHILE WARMING TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. WILL WAIT ANOTHER RUN OR SO BEFORE MAKING MORE
WHOLESALE CHANGES. BOYD

AVIATION...

PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST NEVADA TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS
TO INCREASE FRIDAY PUSHING PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER NORTH INTO OREGON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
COAST. SURFACE GUSTS IN THE SIERRA AND ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WHILE RIDGE GUSTS INCREASE TO
50 KTS.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FURTHER. EXPECT STRONG MECHANICAL TURBULENCE OVER
THE SIERRA AS RIDGE GUSTS EXCEED 80 KNOTS INDUCING TRAPPED LEE
WAVES. SOUTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE GUSTS WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE
35-45 KT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
MOUNTAIN WAVES WILL SET UP AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. WITH GUSTS
THIS STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, THE CROSSWIND COMPONENT ON NORTH
TO SOUTH ORIENTED RUNWAYS WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANT.

PRECIPITATION MOVES IN SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL HANG ABOVE 8000 FEET UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR BY SATURDAY EVENING.
SIERRA TERMINALS FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS SUNDAY BEFORE NOON AS
SNOW LEVELS DROP. FLYING CONDITIONS BECOME MUCH MORE IDEAL BY MONDAY
AS WINDS LESSEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. BOYD

FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS WILL BE GUSTING BETWEEN 20-30 MPH AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR VALLEYS/MID SLOPES WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES THAN TODAY. ALSO, RIDGE
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR WORSENING HUMIDITIES THERE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR WINDS COMBINED WITH LOWERED HUMIDITIES
WILL BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WINDS ALOFT REMAINING ELEVATED, MID SLOPE
RECOVERIES LOOK TO BE POOR TO LOW END MODERATE IN SOME AREAS
(ESPECIALLY SIERRA FRONT DOWN INTO MONO COUNTY) FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL SET UP A SHORT PERIOD OF LOWERED HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MID SLOPES (AND SOME NORTH-SOUTH FACING
VALLEYS NEAR THE SIERRA FRONT), WHICH WILL MIX INTO THE VALLEYS
SATURDAY MORNING JUST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HOWEVER,
HUMIDITIES SHOULD RISE WITH THE COLD FRONT, SO CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG. THEREFORE, PLAN ON
JUST HIGHLIGHTING IN THE PLANNING FORECAST AND DISCUSSIONS FOR
NOW. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY NVZ003-005.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     LAKE TAHOE IN NVZ002.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PYRAMID
     LAKE IN NVZ004.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY CAZ070-071.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     LAKE TAHOE IN CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 232225
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
325 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LIGHT RAIN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS ALSO DECREASING. AFTER A WARM AND
SUNNY FRIDAY, LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE INLAND ON
SATURDAY, BRINGING A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH LIGHT
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. COOLER CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY, WITH MILD AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS NORTHEAST CA AND FAR
NORTHWEST NV WITH RAINFALL RATES LESS THAN 0.05 INCH PER HOUR.
THIS RAIN BAND WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH DURING THE EVENING AND
PUSH FARTHER NORTH. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION, CLOUD COVER
WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY, WITH FULL SUN AND MODERATE SOUTH WIND GUSTS OF 20-30
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON, HIGH ARE LIKELY TO REACH 80 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN NV, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 95 FROM FALLON SOUTHWARD. RIDGE LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH MIXING DOWN
TO LAKE TAHOE SO THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL GO IN EFFECT STARTING
LATE FRIDAY EVENING.

ON SATURDAY, THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AS
PRESSURE AND THERMAL GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. WE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE HIGHWAY
395 CORRIDOR FROM LASSEN SOUTHWARD TO MONO COUNTY, AND ALSO FOR
NORTHWEST NV. AREAS PRONE TO STRONGER SOUTH WINDS INCLUDING THE
RENO AIRPORT COULD RECEIVE THEIR STRONGEST GUSTS DURING THE MID-
LATE MORNING HOURS, BUT THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS ARE LESS LIKELY TO
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN WEST CENTRAL NV, AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS FEED OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WEAKENS WHEN IT REACHES THE SIERRA. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR OTHER RECENT TROUGH PASSAGES, THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STEADY RAIN WILL BE IN WESTERN LASSEN AND CENTRAL
PLUMAS COUNTIES, WITH UP TO 0.50 INCH POSSIBLE. LESSER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FOR TAHOE AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, WITH LITTLE
TO NO MEASURABLE RAIN RAIN EAST AND SOUTH OF THE RENO-CARSON CITY
AREA.

AS THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING, A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MAINLY NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH, WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. BY THE
TIME SNOW LEVELS DROP BELOW 8000 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT, MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE DIMINISHED. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MAY
ACCUMULATE ON SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
NORTHERN SIERRA BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT MOUNTAIN PASSES. MJD

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS. LOW PRESSURE EXITS
SUNDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING RAPIDLY INTO EASTERN
OREGON AND IDAHO. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW WHEREAS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS GENERALLY OVER 7000 FEET
WOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET WILL BE MINIMAL
AND PREVIOUS RAINS SHOULD SEVERELY LIMIT IMPACTS OVER AREA PASSES.
RIDGING BUILDS IN BY MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND.

LATER IN THE PERIOD, FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOWER END
OF THE SPECTRUM AS RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS DEGRADED OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS. DUE TO RUN-TO-RUN DISCREPANCIES, HAVE ONLY MARGINALLY
TRENDED TOWARDS CURRENT SOLUTIONS. PREVIOUS RUNS GENERALLY DEPICTED
A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN SIERRA BY MID WEEK. CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS
THE ECMWF WHERE RIDGING IS MORE PRONOUNCED. HAVE BEGUN TO SHUNT
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
IN THE SIERRA WHILE WARMING TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. WILL WAIT ANOTHER RUN OR SO BEFORE MAKING MORE
WHOLESALE CHANGES. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...

PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST NEVADA TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS
TO INCREASE FRIDAY PUSHING PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER NORTH INTO OREGON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
COAST. SURFACE GUSTS IN THE SIERRA AND ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WHILE RIDGE GUSTS INCREASE TO
50 KTS.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES ONSHORE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FURTHER. EXPECT STRONG MECHANICAL TURBULENCE OVER
THE SIERRA AS RIDGE GUSTS EXCEED 80 KNOTS INDUCING TRAPPED LEE
WAVES. SOUTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE GUSTS WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE
35-45 KT RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
MOUNTAIN WAVES WILL SET UP AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. WITH GUSTS
THIS STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, THE CROSSWIND COMPONENT ON NORTH
TO SOUTH ORIENTED RUNWAYS WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANT.

PRECIPITATION MOVES IN SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN
SINCE SNOW LEVELS WILL HANG ABOVE 8000 FEET UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR BY SATURDAY EVENING.
SIERRA TERMINALS FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS SUNDAY BEFORE NOON AS
SNOW LEVELS DROP. FLYING CONDITIONS BECOME MUCH MORE IDEAL BY MONDAY
AS WINDS LESSEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. BOYD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS WILL BE GUSTING BETWEEN 20-30 MPH AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR VALLEYS/MID SLOPES WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES THAN TODAY. ALSO, RIDGE
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR WORSENING HUMIDITIES THERE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

THE MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR WINDS COMBINED WITH LOWERED HUMIDITIES
WILL BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WINDS ALOFT REMAINING ELEVATED, MID SLOPE
RECOVERIES LOOK TO BE POOR TO LOW END MODERATE IN SOME AREAS
(ESPECIALLY SIERRA FRONT DOWN INTO MONO COUNTY) FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL SET UP A SHORT PERIOD OF LOWERED HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MID SLOPES (AND SOME NORTH-SOUTH FACING
VALLEYS NEAR THE SIERRA FRONT), WHICH WILL MIX INTO THE VALLEYS
SATURDAY MORNING JUST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HOWEVER,
HUMIDITIES SHOULD RISE WITH THE COLD FRONT, SO CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG. THEREFORE, PLAN ON
JUST HIGHLIGHTING IN THE PLANNING FORECAST AND DISCUSSIONS FOR
NOW. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY NVZ003-005.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     LAKE TAHOE IN NVZ002.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PYRAMID
     LAKE IN NVZ004.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY CAZ070-071.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
     LAKE TAHOE IN CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 231000
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
300 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA TODAY. THE LOW WILL
MOVE INLAND ON SATURDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

MAIN UPDATES IN THE SHORT TERM WERE TO INCREASE WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH TO LASSEN COUNTY.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NV.
HRRR MODEL SHOWS PRECIPITATION SPREADING AS FAR SOUTH AS PLUMAS
COUNTY TODAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. AMOUNTS IN THE SURPRISE VALLEY HAVE BEEN
CLOSE TO 0.10 INCHES ALREADY THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO OREGON BY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PROVIDE TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
GENERALLY IN THE 0.10 TO 0.30 INCHES RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE OREGON BORDER.

A STRONGER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL REACH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO 30-50 MPH FRIDAY
AND INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS. RIDGE GUSTS
SHOULD BECOME EVEN STRONGER FRIDAY NIGHT, AROUND 50-60 MPH BY
FRIDAY EVENING, AND 60-80 MPH FRIDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MODEL AND MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A COLD FRONT AND WINTER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SIERRA
AND SIERRA FRONT RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVEL SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS IN
VALLEYS TO 40-50 MPH AND RIDGE TOP GUSTS 80-100 MPH OR HIGHER.

THIS COLD FRONT IS ALSO LIKELY TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY
FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH. SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY EVENING COULD
LOWER TO AROUND 7000 FEET NORTH OF I-80, AND TO 7000-8000 FEET
SOUTH OF I-80. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME,
BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO IMPACT
MOUNTAIN PASSES ABOVE 7000 FEET STARTING SATURDAY EVENING. JCM

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING SUNDAY WITH A MUCH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S AREA WIDE. WE DID BUMP POPS UP
SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING BUT
WINDING DOWN. QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 1/10 INCH.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
FAR NORTHERN AREAS, CLOSE TO THE OREGON BORDER.

A PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL PREVAIL MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING
PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND A SLOW WARMUP. WE DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS GOING NORTHERN AREAS AS MODELS ARE INDICATING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW TUE-WED. THIS IS A RATHER WEAK
FEATURE AND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT QPF. OTHERWISE ATTENTION WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH IS POSSIBLE. THE GFS HAS BEEN CHANGING ERRATICALLY THE PAST
FEW NIGHTS AND WE HAVE DISREGARDED THE UPPER RIDGE DEPICTED IN ITS
DETERMINISTIC RUN. ITS PREVIOUS 18Z RUN AND SEVERAL OF ITS CURRENT
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH THE EC/GEM, THE ECMWF BEING
PERSISTENT NOW FOR SEVERAL RUNS. IN ADDITION THE ECMWF HAS BETTER
SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. NONETHELESS, CONFIDENCE IS STILL
LOW. IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
A BAND OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST CA AND FAR NORTHWEST
NV THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY BE VFR WITH LIGHT RAIN ALTHOUGH CLOUD DECKS COULD
LOWER TO BKN-OVC030 AT TIMES IN MODERATE RAIN, MAINLY NORTH OF A
SUSANVILLE TO GERLACH LINE.

ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY RIDGE LEVEL WINDS. SOME LEE
SIDE TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE AS SIERRA RIDGES GUST TO 50KT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN WINDS SATURDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS TO 40KT OR
MORE ARE POSSIBLE. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 231000
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
300 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA TODAY. THE LOW WILL
MOVE INLAND ON SATURDAY BRINGING A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

MAIN UPDATES IN THE SHORT TERM WERE TO INCREASE WINDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH TO LASSEN COUNTY.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NV.
HRRR MODEL SHOWS PRECIPITATION SPREADING AS FAR SOUTH AS PLUMAS
COUNTY TODAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. AMOUNTS IN THE SURPRISE VALLEY HAVE BEEN
CLOSE TO 0.10 INCHES ALREADY THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO OREGON BY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PROVIDE TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
GENERALLY IN THE 0.10 TO 0.30 INCHES RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE OREGON BORDER.

A STRONGER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL REACH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY AND
WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO 30-50 MPH FRIDAY
AND INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE IN WESTERN NV VALLEYS. RIDGE GUSTS
SHOULD BECOME EVEN STRONGER FRIDAY NIGHT, AROUND 50-60 MPH BY
FRIDAY EVENING, AND 60-80 MPH FRIDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MODEL AND MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A COLD FRONT AND WINTER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SIERRA
AND SIERRA FRONT RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVEL SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS IN
VALLEYS TO 40-50 MPH AND RIDGE TOP GUSTS 80-100 MPH OR HIGHER.

THIS COLD FRONT IS ALSO LIKELY TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY
FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH. SNOW LEVELS SATURDAY EVENING COULD
LOWER TO AROUND 7000 FEET NORTH OF I-80, AND TO 7000-8000 FEET
SOUTH OF I-80. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME,
BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO IMPACT
MOUNTAIN PASSES ABOVE 7000 FEET STARTING SATURDAY EVENING. JCM

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING SUNDAY WITH A MUCH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S AREA WIDE. WE DID BUMP POPS UP
SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING BUT
WINDING DOWN. QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY UNDER 1/10 INCH.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
FAR NORTHERN AREAS, CLOSE TO THE OREGON BORDER.

A PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL PREVAIL MONDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING
PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND A SLOW WARMUP. WE DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS GOING NORTHERN AREAS AS MODELS ARE INDICATING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW TUE-WED. THIS IS A RATHER WEAK
FEATURE AND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT QPF. OTHERWISE ATTENTION WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH IS POSSIBLE. THE GFS HAS BEEN CHANGING ERRATICALLY THE PAST
FEW NIGHTS AND WE HAVE DISREGARDED THE UPPER RIDGE DEPICTED IN ITS
DETERMINISTIC RUN. ITS PREVIOUS 18Z RUN AND SEVERAL OF ITS CURRENT
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH THE EC/GEM, THE ECMWF BEING
PERSISTENT NOW FOR SEVERAL RUNS. IN ADDITION THE ECMWF HAS BETTER
SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. NONETHELESS, CONFIDENCE IS STILL
LOW. IT WILL BE WORTH WATCHING. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
A BAND OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST CA AND FAR NORTHWEST
NV THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY BE VFR WITH LIGHT RAIN ALTHOUGH CLOUD DECKS COULD
LOWER TO BKN-OVC030 AT TIMES IN MODERATE RAIN, MAINLY NORTH OF A
SUSANVILLE TO GERLACH LINE.

ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY RIDGE LEVEL WINDS. SOME LEE
SIDE TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE AS SIERRA RIDGES GUST TO 50KT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN WINDS SATURDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS TO 40KT OR
MORE ARE POSSIBLE. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










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