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000
FXUS65 KREV 012204
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
304 PM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND ALSO
HAZARDOUS BOATING ON TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AND PROVIDE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASON AVERAGES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GUSTIER WINDS WILL BE LOCATED ROUGHLY NORTH OF HWY 50 THROUGH THE
TAHOE BASIN AND LASSEN COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO WESTERN NEVADA. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CREATE AREAS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN PLACE
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS. HAZARDOUS
BOATING IS LIKELY ACROSS LAKE TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKE WITH GUSTS
IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE EXPECTED. LAKE WIND ADVISORIES HAVE ALSO
BEEN ISSUED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR AREAS DOWNWIND OF DESERT SINKS AND
DRY LAKE BEDS. THIS ALSO INCLUDES BLACK ROCK DESERT AND THE
BURNING MAN FESTIVAL.

BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE SOME
AND SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE
STILL POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL DIP A
FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH GENERALLY UPPER 70S
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY ACROSS THE SIERRA VALLEYS WITH 20S POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST
SIERRA LOCATIONS SUCH AS BOCA AND BODIE. FUENTES

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST TODAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A PROGRESSION TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE THIS WEEK GOING INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TRACKING
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEVADA AND
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL DROP
INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND THE 60S FOR THE SIERRA.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE OR FROST FOR MANY SIERRA VALLEYS AND FOR SOME
OF THE USUALLY COLDER VALLEYS IN WESTERN NEVADA. PRECIPITATION-WISE
THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE, WITH ONLY CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE NEVADA-OREGON BORDER FOR NOW.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, NORTHEAST-EAST WINDS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEISHAHN

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR DUE TO INCREASED WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.  WINDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20-25 KT, BUT WILL THEN
STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. TYPICAL SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD HELP TO IMPROVE SLANTWISE VISIBILITY LIMITATIONS FROM THE
SMOKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BLACK ROCK DESERT. BLOWING DUST WILL LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES,
AROUND 1 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. WEISHAHN

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

NO BIG CHANGE IN THINKING FOR WINDS AND HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN THE RED FLAG AREA (278/SOUTHERN 458/450/453). FOR THE
SURPRISE VALLEY/ZONE 270 AND ZONE 271 (WESTERN LASSEN, EASTERN
PLUMAS/SIERRA/NEVADA COUNTIES), GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER, IN THOSE AREAS HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL
AND MOSTLY ABOVE 15% SO I JUST HIGHLIGHTED THOSE AREAS FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS.

IF THERE IS ONE AREA THAT I HAVE SLIGHT CONCERN FOR ON WEDNESDAY IT
IS THE TAHOE BASIN. THE 18Z NAM HAS COME IN WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
WHICH COULD PUSH SOME WIND GUSTS TOWARDS 35 MPH VERSUS 25-30 MPH.
ALSO, THE NAM IS SHOWING DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH COULD PARTIALLY MIX
DOWN INTO THE BASIN FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER HUMIDITIES THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. FOR NOW, THE HUMIDITY FORECAST REMAINS MARGINAL SO I
HAVE HEADLINED BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE TAHOE BASIN ZONE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WINDS MAY LINGER UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SLOPES AND
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE GFS/NAM SHOW 25-35 KTS AT 700 MB
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT NEAR/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS THE PAC NW TROUGH
CONTINUED TO SAG SOUTHWARD.

THURSDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN (25-35 MPH) IN THE AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT HANGS UP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SO HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THEREFORE, I HAVE JUST
HIGHLIGHTED THE BREEZY WINDS FOR NOW. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY NVZ450-453-458.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAKE
     TAHOE IN NVZ002.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PYRAMID
     LAKE IN NVZ004.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY CAZ278.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAKE
     TAHOE IN CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 012204
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
304 PM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND ALSO
HAZARDOUS BOATING ON TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AND PROVIDE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASON AVERAGES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GUSTIER WINDS WILL BE LOCATED ROUGHLY NORTH OF HWY 50 THROUGH THE
TAHOE BASIN AND LASSEN COUNTY AND EXTENDING INTO WESTERN NEVADA. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CREATE AREAS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN PLACE
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS. HAZARDOUS
BOATING IS LIKELY ACROSS LAKE TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKE WITH GUSTS
IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE EXPECTED. LAKE WIND ADVISORIES HAVE ALSO
BEEN ISSUED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR AREAS DOWNWIND OF DESERT SINKS AND
DRY LAKE BEDS. THIS ALSO INCLUDES BLACK ROCK DESERT AND THE
BURNING MAN FESTIVAL.

BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE SOME
AND SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE
STILL POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL DIP A
FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH GENERALLY UPPER 70S
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY ACROSS THE SIERRA VALLEYS WITH 20S POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST
SIERRA LOCATIONS SUCH AS BOCA AND BODIE. FUENTES

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST TODAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A PROGRESSION TOWARDS COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE THIS WEEK GOING INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TRACKING
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEVADA AND
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL DROP
INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND THE 60S FOR THE SIERRA.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE OR FROST FOR MANY SIERRA VALLEYS AND FOR SOME
OF THE USUALLY COLDER VALLEYS IN WESTERN NEVADA. PRECIPITATION-WISE
THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE, WITH ONLY CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE NEVADA-OREGON BORDER FOR NOW.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, NORTHEAST-EAST WINDS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEISHAHN

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR DUE TO INCREASED WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.  WINDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20-25 KT, BUT WILL THEN
STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. TYPICAL SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD HELP TO IMPROVE SLANTWISE VISIBILITY LIMITATIONS FROM THE
SMOKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BLACK ROCK DESERT. BLOWING DUST WILL LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES,
AROUND 1 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. WEISHAHN

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

NO BIG CHANGE IN THINKING FOR WINDS AND HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN THE RED FLAG AREA (278/SOUTHERN 458/450/453). FOR THE
SURPRISE VALLEY/ZONE 270 AND ZONE 271 (WESTERN LASSEN, EASTERN
PLUMAS/SIERRA/NEVADA COUNTIES), GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER, IN THOSE AREAS HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL
AND MOSTLY ABOVE 15% SO I JUST HIGHLIGHTED THOSE AREAS FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS.

IF THERE IS ONE AREA THAT I HAVE SLIGHT CONCERN FOR ON WEDNESDAY IT
IS THE TAHOE BASIN. THE 18Z NAM HAS COME IN WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
WHICH COULD PUSH SOME WIND GUSTS TOWARDS 35 MPH VERSUS 25-30 MPH.
ALSO, THE NAM IS SHOWING DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH COULD PARTIALLY MIX
DOWN INTO THE BASIN FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER HUMIDITIES THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. FOR NOW, THE HUMIDITY FORECAST REMAINS MARGINAL SO I
HAVE HEADLINED BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE TAHOE BASIN ZONE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WINDS MAY LINGER UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SLOPES AND
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE GFS/NAM SHOW 25-35 KTS AT 700 MB
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT NEAR/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS THE PAC NW TROUGH
CONTINUED TO SAG SOUTHWARD.

THURSDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN (25-35 MPH) IN THE AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT HANGS UP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SO HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THEREFORE, I HAVE JUST
HIGHLIGHTED THE BREEZY WINDS FOR NOW. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY NVZ450-453-458.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAKE
     TAHOE IN NVZ002.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PYRAMID
     LAKE IN NVZ004.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY CAZ278.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAKE
     TAHOE IN CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 011523
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
823 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...

HAZY CONDITIONS HAVE SETTLED ACROSS MONO COUNTY AND EXTENDING
NORTH TROUGH RENO-CARSON CITY AND ALSO INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
PERSHING COUNTY. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF
SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON AS OUR TYPICAL WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 MPH HELP DISPERSE HAZE THROUGH THE DAY. FUENTES

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BLOWING DUST. FURTHER COOLING IS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. WEDNESDAY
CONTINUES TO BE PROJECTED AS A BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE STRAFES THE REGION. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR SPECIFICS ABOUT WIND SPEEDS AND ANTICIPATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. ADDITIONALLY, LAKE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME UNSAFE
FOR WATERCRAFT AS GUSTS EXCEED 30 MPH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
CONCERN RELATED TO THESE WINDS WILL BE BLOWING DUST MAINLY NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50
EAST OF THE VIRGINIA RANGE; INCLUDING THE DAYTON VALLEY. THIS WILL
BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT FOR THOSE ON THE PLAYA IN BLACK ROCK CITY.
EXPECT SOME CARRY OVER INTO THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE AND THERMAL
GRADIENTS REMAIN TIGHT. INCREASED WINDS EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 AND
MAY HAVE A BRIEFER PERIOD OF BLOWING DUST AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON WINDS GUSTING GENERALLY IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT IN THE SIERRA.
LOWS WILL DIP TO NEAR FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDEST SIERRA
VALLEYS LIKELY AROUND 30 DEGREES. THESE COOL CONDITIONS MAY SHOCK
LESS THERMALLY TOLERANT PLANTS WHICH MAY NEED TO BE COVERED. ALSO,
OUTDOOR PETS MAY NEED EXTRA CARE TO ENSURE THAT THEY STAY WARM.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY EVENING MAINLY IN THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND EXTREME
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY; PERCENTAGES WILL BE MEAGER AROUND 15% FOR
A LIGHT SHOWER. BOYD

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN TIMING DIFFERENCES, MODELS TRENDED A BIT
TIGHTER EARLY IN PERIOD, BUT REMAIN AT ODDS BEYOND SATURDAY WITH
REGARD TO HOW QUICKLY TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT AND WEAKEN. THERE SEEMS
TO BE A CONSENSUS FOR AN EARLY SEASON COOL TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. WE HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THIS IDEA BY COOLING
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND INTRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTHERN ZONES FOR FRI-SAT. IF THE ECMWF IS REALIZED, SATURDAY COULD
BE EVEN COOLER THAN FORECAST, POSSIBLY ANOTHER 5 DEGREES. IN
ADDITION, SHOWERS COULD REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 50 SATURDAY.
ANOTHER IMPACT FOR LATE WEEK WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WITH WIDESPREAD 30S AND 40S ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL
FREEZE OR FROST FOR MANY SIERRA VALLEYS AND THE TYPICALLY COLDER
VALLEYS IN WESTERN NV.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, LIGHTER NORTHEAST-EAST
WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. A WEAK BAGGY TROUGH MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE CA COAST
AND LEAD TO SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS BY MONDAY, BUT INSTABILITY AND
FORCING LOOK TO BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HOHMANN

AVIATION...

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR DUE TO INCREASED WINDS ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.
WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20-25 KT, THEN
STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AROUND THE BLACK ROCK DESERT WHERE BLOWING DUST WILL
LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES, WHICH COULD DROP TO 1 MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
MONO COUNTY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT, AND ALSO SPREAD NORTH INTO
LYON AND MINERAL COUNTIES. WHILE SFC VSBY PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE
5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER
KMMH. AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY, THE SMOKE AND HAZE
SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PLUME GETS DIRECTED
MORE TO THE EAST OF THE FIRE. MJD/WH

FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE SIERRA FRONT AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA.

TYPICAL ZEPHYR TYPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. ON WEDNESDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OREGON AND IDAHO. THIS WILL
INTENSIFY THERMAL GRADIENTS BETWEEN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEVADA AND BRING AFTERNOON AND EVENING WIND GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 35 MPH FOR THE WESTERN BASIN, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.

WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST IS FAIRLY HIGH, HUMIDITIES
ARE AN ISSUE FOR NORTHWEST NEVADA AND FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WITH
TEMPERATURES EASING DOWN ON WEDNESDAY NORTH OF I-80 AND NO LARGE-
SCALE DRY SLOT IN MODELS, HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AT 15-
22% NORTH OF A RAVENDALE TO FOX MOUNTAIN LINE. SOUTH OF THERE TO
AROUND HIGHWAY 50 IN THE BASIN, HUMIDITY LOOKS SUFFICIENTLY LOW (IN
THE LOW TEENS ON AVERAGE) TO BRING CRITICAL CONDITIONS WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. FOR THE TAHOE BASIN AND DOWN INTO MONO-MINERAL
COUNTIES, HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVER
30 MPH FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA SO NO WATCH/WARNING IS EXPECTED THERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INCREASED WINDS ALOFT MAY KEEP GUSTY WINDS GOING
FOR MID SLOPES BUT HUMIDITY IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CREEP HIGH
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

ON THURSDAY, WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS AS SOME
MODELS BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SIERRA FRONT AND BASIN AND RANGE
AGAIN. AT THIS TIME, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HUMIDITY MAY RISE ABOVE 15%
FOR MANY AREAS THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW AVERAGE.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
ANOTHER WATCH COULD BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ450-453-458.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING CAZ278.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 011523
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
823 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...

HAZY CONDITIONS HAVE SETTLED ACROSS MONO COUNTY AND EXTENDING
NORTH TROUGH RENO-CARSON CITY AND ALSO INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
PERSHING COUNTY. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF
SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON AS OUR TYPICAL WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 MPH HELP DISPERSE HAZE THROUGH THE DAY. FUENTES

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BLOWING DUST. FURTHER COOLING IS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. WEDNESDAY
CONTINUES TO BE PROJECTED AS A BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE STRAFES THE REGION. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR SPECIFICS ABOUT WIND SPEEDS AND ANTICIPATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. ADDITIONALLY, LAKE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME UNSAFE
FOR WATERCRAFT AS GUSTS EXCEED 30 MPH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
CONCERN RELATED TO THESE WINDS WILL BE BLOWING DUST MAINLY NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50
EAST OF THE VIRGINIA RANGE; INCLUDING THE DAYTON VALLEY. THIS WILL
BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT FOR THOSE ON THE PLAYA IN BLACK ROCK CITY.
EXPECT SOME CARRY OVER INTO THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE AND THERMAL
GRADIENTS REMAIN TIGHT. INCREASED WINDS EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 AND
MAY HAVE A BRIEFER PERIOD OF BLOWING DUST AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON WINDS GUSTING GENERALLY IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT IN THE SIERRA.
LOWS WILL DIP TO NEAR FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDEST SIERRA
VALLEYS LIKELY AROUND 30 DEGREES. THESE COOL CONDITIONS MAY SHOCK
LESS THERMALLY TOLERANT PLANTS WHICH MAY NEED TO BE COVERED. ALSO,
OUTDOOR PETS MAY NEED EXTRA CARE TO ENSURE THAT THEY STAY WARM.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY EVENING MAINLY IN THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND EXTREME
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY; PERCENTAGES WILL BE MEAGER AROUND 15% FOR
A LIGHT SHOWER. BOYD

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN TIMING DIFFERENCES, MODELS TRENDED A BIT
TIGHTER EARLY IN PERIOD, BUT REMAIN AT ODDS BEYOND SATURDAY WITH
REGARD TO HOW QUICKLY TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT AND WEAKEN. THERE SEEMS
TO BE A CONSENSUS FOR AN EARLY SEASON COOL TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. WE HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THIS IDEA BY COOLING
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND INTRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTHERN ZONES FOR FRI-SAT. IF THE ECMWF IS REALIZED, SATURDAY COULD
BE EVEN COOLER THAN FORECAST, POSSIBLY ANOTHER 5 DEGREES. IN
ADDITION, SHOWERS COULD REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 50 SATURDAY.
ANOTHER IMPACT FOR LATE WEEK WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WITH WIDESPREAD 30S AND 40S ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL
FREEZE OR FROST FOR MANY SIERRA VALLEYS AND THE TYPICALLY COLDER
VALLEYS IN WESTERN NV.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, LIGHTER NORTHEAST-EAST
WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. A WEAK BAGGY TROUGH MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE CA COAST
AND LEAD TO SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS BY MONDAY, BUT INSTABILITY AND
FORCING LOOK TO BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HOHMANN

AVIATION...

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR DUE TO INCREASED WINDS ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.
WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20-25 KT, THEN
STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AROUND THE BLACK ROCK DESERT WHERE BLOWING DUST WILL
LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES, WHICH COULD DROP TO 1 MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
MONO COUNTY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT, AND ALSO SPREAD NORTH INTO
LYON AND MINERAL COUNTIES. WHILE SFC VSBY PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE
5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER
KMMH. AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY, THE SMOKE AND HAZE
SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PLUME GETS DIRECTED
MORE TO THE EAST OF THE FIRE. MJD/WH

FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE SIERRA FRONT AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA.

TYPICAL ZEPHYR TYPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. ON WEDNESDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OREGON AND IDAHO. THIS WILL
INTENSIFY THERMAL GRADIENTS BETWEEN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEVADA AND BRING AFTERNOON AND EVENING WIND GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 35 MPH FOR THE WESTERN BASIN, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.

WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST IS FAIRLY HIGH, HUMIDITIES
ARE AN ISSUE FOR NORTHWEST NEVADA AND FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WITH
TEMPERATURES EASING DOWN ON WEDNESDAY NORTH OF I-80 AND NO LARGE-
SCALE DRY SLOT IN MODELS, HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AT 15-
22% NORTH OF A RAVENDALE TO FOX MOUNTAIN LINE. SOUTH OF THERE TO
AROUND HIGHWAY 50 IN THE BASIN, HUMIDITY LOOKS SUFFICIENTLY LOW (IN
THE LOW TEENS ON AVERAGE) TO BRING CRITICAL CONDITIONS WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. FOR THE TAHOE BASIN AND DOWN INTO MONO-MINERAL
COUNTIES, HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVER
30 MPH FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA SO NO WATCH/WARNING IS EXPECTED THERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INCREASED WINDS ALOFT MAY KEEP GUSTY WINDS GOING
FOR MID SLOPES BUT HUMIDITY IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CREEP HIGH
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

ON THURSDAY, WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS AS SOME
MODELS BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SIERRA FRONT AND BASIN AND RANGE
AGAIN. AT THIS TIME, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HUMIDITY MAY RISE ABOVE 15%
FOR MANY AREAS THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW AVERAGE.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
ANOTHER WATCH COULD BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ450-453-458.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING CAZ278.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 010955
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
255 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BLOWING DUST. FURTHER COOLING IS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. WEDNESDAY
CONTINUES TO BE PROJECTED AS A BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE STRAFES THE REGION. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR SPECIFICS ABOUT WIND SPEEDS AND ANTICIPATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. ADDITIONALLY, LAKE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME UNSAFE
FOR WATERCRAFT AS GUSTS EXCEED 30 MPH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
CONCERN RELATED TO THESE WINDS WILL BE BLOWING DUST MAINLY NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50
EAST OF THE VIRGINIA RANGE; INCLUDING THE DAYTON VALLEY. THIS WILL
BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT FOR THOSE ON THE PLAYA IN BLACK ROCK CITY.
EXPECT SOME CARRY OVER INTO THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE AND THERMAL
GRADIENTS REMAIN TIGHT. INCREASED WINDS EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 AND
MAY HAVE A BRIEFER PERIOD OF BLOWING DUST AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON WINDS GUSTING GENERALLY IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT IN THE SIERRA.
LOWS WILL DIP TO NEAR FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDEST SIERRA
VALLEYS LIKELY AROUND 30 DEGREES. THESE COOL CONDITIONS MAY SHOCK
LESS THERMALLY TOLERANT PLANTS WHICH MAY NEED TO BE COVERED. ALSO,
OUTDOOR PETS MAY NEED EXTRA CARE TO ENSURE THAT THEY STAY WARM.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY EVENING MAINLY IN THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND EXTREME
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY; PERCENTAGES WILL BE MEAGER AROUND 15% FOR
A LIGHT SHOWER. BOYD

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN TIMING DIFFERENCES, MODELS TRENDED A BIT
TIGHTER EARLY IN PERIOD, BUT REMAIN AT ODDS BEYOND SATURDAY WITH
REGARD TO HOW QUICKLY TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT AND WEAKEN. THERE SEEMS
TO BE A CONSENSUS FOR AN EARLY SEASON COOL TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. WE HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THIS IDEA BY COOLING
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND INTRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTHERN ZONES FOR FRI-SAT. IF THE ECMWF IS REALIZED, SATURDAY COULD
BE EVEN COOLER THAN FORECAST, POSSIBLY ANOTHER 5 DEGREES. IN
ADDITION, SHOWERS COULD REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 50 SATURDAY.
ANOTHER IMPACT FOR LATE WEEK WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WITH WIDESPREAD 30S AND 40S ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL
FREEZE OR FROST FOR MANY SIERRA VALLEYS AND THE TYPICALLY COLDER
VALLEYS IN WESTERN NV.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, LIGHTER NORTHEAST-EAST
WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. A WEAK BAGGY TROUGH MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE CA COAST
AND LEAD TO SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS BY MONDAY, BUT INSTABILITY AND
FORCING LOOK TO BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR DUE TO INCREASED WINDS ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.
WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20-25 KT, THEN
STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AROUND THE BLACK ROCK DESERT WHERE BLOWING DUST WILL
LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES, WHICH COULD DROP TO 1 MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
MONO COUNTY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT, AND ALSO SPREAD NORTH INTO
LYON AND MINERAL COUNTIES. WHILE SFC VSBY PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE
5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER
KMMH. AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY, THE SMOKE AND HAZE
SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PLUME GETS DIRECTED
MORE TO THE EAST OF THE FIRE. MJD/WH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE SIERRA FRONT AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA.

TYPICAL ZEPHYR TYPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. ON WEDNESDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OREGON AND IDAHO. THIS WILL
INTENSIFY THERMAL GRADIENTS BETWEEN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEVADA AND BRING AFTERNOON AND EVENING WIND GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 35 MPH FOR THE WESTERN BASIN, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.

WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST IS FAIRLY HIGH, HUMIDITIES
ARE AN ISSUE FOR NORTHWEST NEVADA AND FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WITH
TEMPERATURES EASING DOWN ON WEDNESDAY NORTH OF I-80 AND NO LARGE-
SCALE DRY SLOT IN MODELS, HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AT 15-
22% NORTH OF A RAVENDALE TO FOX MOUNTAIN LINE. SOUTH OF THERE TO
AROUND HIGHWAY 50 IN THE BASIN, HUMIDITY LOOKS SUFFICIENTLY LOW (IN
THE LOW TEENS ON AVERAGE) TO BRING CRITICAL CONDITIONS WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. FOR THE TAHOE BASIN AND DOWN INTO MONO-MINERAL
COUNTIES, HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVER
30 MPH FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA SO NO WATCH/WARNING IS EXPECTED THERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INCREASED WINDS ALOFT MAY KEEP GUSTY WINDS GOING
FOR MID SLOPES BUT HUMIDITY IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CREEP HIGH
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

ON THURSDAY, WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS AS SOME
MODELS BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SIERRA FRONT AND BASIN AND RANGE
AGAIN. AT THIS TIME, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HUMIDITY MAY RISE ABOVE 15%
FOR MANY AREAS THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW AVERAGE.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
ANOTHER WATCH COULD BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNYDER

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ450-453-458.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING CAZ278.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 010955
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
255 AM PDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BLOWING DUST. FURTHER COOLING IS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. WEDNESDAY
CONTINUES TO BE PROJECTED AS A BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE STRAFES THE REGION. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR SPECIFICS ABOUT WIND SPEEDS AND ANTICIPATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. ADDITIONALLY, LAKE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME UNSAFE
FOR WATERCRAFT AS GUSTS EXCEED 30 MPH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
CONCERN RELATED TO THESE WINDS WILL BE BLOWING DUST MAINLY NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50
EAST OF THE VIRGINIA RANGE; INCLUDING THE DAYTON VALLEY. THIS WILL
BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT FOR THOSE ON THE PLAYA IN BLACK ROCK CITY.
EXPECT SOME CARRY OVER INTO THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE AND THERMAL
GRADIENTS REMAIN TIGHT. INCREASED WINDS EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 AND
MAY HAVE A BRIEFER PERIOD OF BLOWING DUST AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE, RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON WINDS GUSTING GENERALLY IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT IN THE SIERRA.
LOWS WILL DIP TO NEAR FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLDEST SIERRA
VALLEYS LIKELY AROUND 30 DEGREES. THESE COOL CONDITIONS MAY SHOCK
LESS THERMALLY TOLERANT PLANTS WHICH MAY NEED TO BE COVERED. ALSO,
OUTDOOR PETS MAY NEED EXTRA CARE TO ENSURE THAT THEY STAY WARM.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY EVENING MAINLY IN THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND EXTREME
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY; PERCENTAGES WILL BE MEAGER AROUND 15% FOR
A LIGHT SHOWER. BOYD

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN TIMING DIFFERENCES, MODELS TRENDED A BIT
TIGHTER EARLY IN PERIOD, BUT REMAIN AT ODDS BEYOND SATURDAY WITH
REGARD TO HOW QUICKLY TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT AND WEAKEN. THERE SEEMS
TO BE A CONSENSUS FOR AN EARLY SEASON COOL TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. WE HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THIS IDEA BY COOLING
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND INTRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTHERN ZONES FOR FRI-SAT. IF THE ECMWF IS REALIZED, SATURDAY COULD
BE EVEN COOLER THAN FORECAST, POSSIBLY ANOTHER 5 DEGREES. IN
ADDITION, SHOWERS COULD REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 50 SATURDAY.
ANOTHER IMPACT FOR LATE WEEK WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WITH WIDESPREAD 30S AND 40S ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL
FREEZE OR FROST FOR MANY SIERRA VALLEYS AND THE TYPICALLY COLDER
VALLEYS IN WESTERN NV.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, LIGHTER NORTHEAST-EAST
WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS. A WEAK BAGGY TROUGH MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE CA COAST
AND LEAD TO SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS BY MONDAY, BUT INSTABILITY AND
FORCING LOOK TO BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR DUE TO INCREASED WINDS ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.
WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20-25 KT, THEN
STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AROUND THE BLACK ROCK DESERT WHERE BLOWING DUST WILL
LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES, WHICH COULD DROP TO 1 MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
MONO COUNTY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT, AND ALSO SPREAD NORTH INTO
LYON AND MINERAL COUNTIES. WHILE SFC VSBY PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE
5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER
KMMH. AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY, THE SMOKE AND HAZE
SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PLUME GETS DIRECTED
MORE TO THE EAST OF THE FIRE. MJD/WH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE SIERRA FRONT AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA.

TYPICAL ZEPHYR TYPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. ON WEDNESDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OREGON AND IDAHO. THIS WILL
INTENSIFY THERMAL GRADIENTS BETWEEN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEVADA AND BRING AFTERNOON AND EVENING WIND GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 35 MPH FOR THE WESTERN BASIN, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.

WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST IS FAIRLY HIGH, HUMIDITIES
ARE AN ISSUE FOR NORTHWEST NEVADA AND FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WITH
TEMPERATURES EASING DOWN ON WEDNESDAY NORTH OF I-80 AND NO LARGE-
SCALE DRY SLOT IN MODELS, HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AT 15-
22% NORTH OF A RAVENDALE TO FOX MOUNTAIN LINE. SOUTH OF THERE TO
AROUND HIGHWAY 50 IN THE BASIN, HUMIDITY LOOKS SUFFICIENTLY LOW (IN
THE LOW TEENS ON AVERAGE) TO BRING CRITICAL CONDITIONS WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. FOR THE TAHOE BASIN AND DOWN INTO MONO-MINERAL
COUNTIES, HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVER
30 MPH FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA SO NO WATCH/WARNING IS EXPECTED THERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INCREASED WINDS ALOFT MAY KEEP GUSTY WINDS GOING
FOR MID SLOPES BUT HUMIDITY IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CREEP HIGH
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

ON THURSDAY, WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS AS SOME
MODELS BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SIERRA FRONT AND BASIN AND RANGE
AGAIN. AT THIS TIME, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HUMIDITY MAY RISE ABOVE 15%
FOR MANY AREAS THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW AVERAGE.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
ANOTHER WATCH COULD BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNYDER

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ450-453-458.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING CAZ278.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 312246 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
345 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPDATED TO ADD FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED
WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BLOWING DUST. FURTHER COOLING IS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WHICH WILL BRING
INCREASED WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. SMOKE AND
HAZE WILL GET PUSHED UP INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTY TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING.

FOR TUESDAY, WINDS WILL BE TYPICAL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25-30 MPH. BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AND 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KTS, WE WILL SEE
WINDS INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE SIERRA FRONT AND WESTERN NEVADA
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WILL POSE A THREAT TO LAKE RECREATION AND
FIRE WEATHER, AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON FIRE IMPACTS. AS FOR BLACK ROCK
CITY, LOW VISIBILITIES MAY IMPACT FESTIVITIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

OTHER THAN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN TROUGH PASSAGES LATER
THIS WEEK, THE OVERALL FORECAST STILL REMAINS ON TRACK WITH COOLING
TREND AND BREEZY AT TIMES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
LIGHT WINDS AND SLOW WARMING TOWARD LABOR DAY. LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

THE FIRST TROUGH PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OF COOLING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 35
MPH ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NV BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NOT BE AS LOW COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AS THE
COOLER AIR MASS ARRIVES (GENERALLY MID-UPPER TEENS FOR WESTERN NV-
EASTERN MONO COUNTY, AND 20-25% FOR WESTERN MONO-TAHOE BASIN AND
NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV). THERE IS STILL A SMALL POCKET OF SLIGHT
INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWING UP NORTH OF CEDARVILLE,
SO WE WILL RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THERE FOR
THURSDAY.

THE SECOND TROUGH PASSAGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS APPEAR TO FAVOR SATURDAY
FOR THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. SO FOR NOW WE WILL
KEEP TEMPS NEARLY STEADY WITH WEAKER ZEPHYR BREEZES ON FRIDAY, THEN
PUSH WIND SPEEDS UP A LITTLE MORE AND DROP MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE
DEGREES ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY, THE FORECAST HIGHS WILL BOTTOM OUT
TO MAINLY THE 70S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH MID-UPPER 60S FOR
SIERRA VALLEYS AND AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH. SOME OF THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE SCENARIOS WOULD LEAD TO TEMPS AT LEAST 5
DEGREES COOLER AND EVEN BRING PRECIP TO SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-80,
BUT DUE TO GREATER UNCERTAINTY AMONG GUIDANCE SOURCES WE WILL GO
WITH A MIDDLE GROUND TYPE OF TEMPERATURE TREND FOR NOW.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, LIGHTER NORTHEAST-EAST
WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS OF MID 80S IN WESTERN NV BY MONDAY. A WEAK BAGGY
TROUGH MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE CA COAST AND LEAD TO SOME CUMULUS
BUILDUPS BY MONDAY, BUT INSTABILITY AND FORCING LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK
TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR DUE TO INCREASED WINDS ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.
WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20-25 KT, THEN
STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AROUND THE BLACK ROCK DESERT WHERE BLOWING DUST WILL
LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES, WHICH COULD DROP TO 1 MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
MONO COUNTY AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, AND ALSO SPREAD NORTH
INTO LYON AND MINERAL COUNTIES. WHILE SFC VSBY PROBABLY ONLY DROPS
TO THE 5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED
OVER KMMH. AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY, THE SMOKE AND HAZE
SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MJD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE SIERRA FRONT AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA.

TYPICAL ZEPHYR TYPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. ON WEDNESDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OREGON AND IDAHO.
THIS WILL INTENSIFY THERMAL GRADIENTS BETWEEN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL BRING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH FOR THE WESTERN BASIN, MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST IS FAIRLY HIGH, HUMIDITIES
ARE AN ISSUE FOR NORTHWEST NEVADA AND FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WITH
TEMPERATURES EASING DOWN ON WEDNESDAY NORTH OF I-80 AND NO LARGE-
SCALE DRY SLOT IN MODELS, HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AT
15-22% NORTH OF A RAVENDALE TO FOX MOUNTAIN LINE. SOUTH OF THERE TO
AROUND HIGHWAY 50 IN THE BASIN, HUMIDITIES LOOK SUFFICIENTLY LOW (IN
THE LOW TEENS ON AVERAGE) TO BRING CRITICAL CONDITIONS WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. FOR THE TAHOE BASIN AND DOWN INTO MONO-MINERAL
COUNTIES, HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
OVER 30 MPH FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA SO NO WATCH/WARNING IS EXPECTED
THERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INCREASED WINDS ALOFT MAY KEEP GUSTY WINDS GOING
FOR MID SLOPES BUT HUMIDITIES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CREEP HIGH
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

ON THURSDAY, WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS AS SOME
MODELS BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SIERRA FRONT AND BASIN AND RANGE
AGAIN. AT THIS TIME, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HUMIDITIES MAY RISE ABOVE
15% FOR MANY AREAS THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW AVERAGE.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER
WATCH COULD BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ450-453-458.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING CAZ278.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 312246 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
345 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPDATED TO ADD FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED
WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BLOWING DUST. FURTHER COOLING IS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WHICH WILL BRING
INCREASED WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. SMOKE AND
HAZE WILL GET PUSHED UP INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTY TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING.

FOR TUESDAY, WINDS WILL BE TYPICAL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25-30 MPH. BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AND 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KTS, WE WILL SEE
WINDS INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE SIERRA FRONT AND WESTERN NEVADA
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WILL POSE A THREAT TO LAKE RECREATION AND
FIRE WEATHER, AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON FIRE IMPACTS. AS FOR BLACK ROCK
CITY, LOW VISIBILITIES MAY IMPACT FESTIVITIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

OTHER THAN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN TROUGH PASSAGES LATER
THIS WEEK, THE OVERALL FORECAST STILL REMAINS ON TRACK WITH COOLING
TREND AND BREEZY AT TIMES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
LIGHT WINDS AND SLOW WARMING TOWARD LABOR DAY. LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

THE FIRST TROUGH PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OF COOLING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 35
MPH ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NV BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NOT BE AS LOW COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AS THE
COOLER AIR MASS ARRIVES (GENERALLY MID-UPPER TEENS FOR WESTERN NV-
EASTERN MONO COUNTY, AND 20-25% FOR WESTERN MONO-TAHOE BASIN AND
NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV). THERE IS STILL A SMALL POCKET OF SLIGHT
INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWING UP NORTH OF CEDARVILLE,
SO WE WILL RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THERE FOR
THURSDAY.

THE SECOND TROUGH PASSAGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS APPEAR TO FAVOR SATURDAY
FOR THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. SO FOR NOW WE WILL
KEEP TEMPS NEARLY STEADY WITH WEAKER ZEPHYR BREEZES ON FRIDAY, THEN
PUSH WIND SPEEDS UP A LITTLE MORE AND DROP MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE
DEGREES ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY, THE FORECAST HIGHS WILL BOTTOM OUT
TO MAINLY THE 70S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH MID-UPPER 60S FOR
SIERRA VALLEYS AND AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH. SOME OF THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE SCENARIOS WOULD LEAD TO TEMPS AT LEAST 5
DEGREES COOLER AND EVEN BRING PRECIP TO SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-80,
BUT DUE TO GREATER UNCERTAINTY AMONG GUIDANCE SOURCES WE WILL GO
WITH A MIDDLE GROUND TYPE OF TEMPERATURE TREND FOR NOW.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, LIGHTER NORTHEAST-EAST
WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS OF MID 80S IN WESTERN NV BY MONDAY. A WEAK BAGGY
TROUGH MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE CA COAST AND LEAD TO SOME CUMULUS
BUILDUPS BY MONDAY, BUT INSTABILITY AND FORCING LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK
TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR DUE TO INCREASED WINDS ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.
WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20-25 KT, THEN
STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AROUND THE BLACK ROCK DESERT WHERE BLOWING DUST WILL
LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES, WHICH COULD DROP TO 1 MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
MONO COUNTY AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, AND ALSO SPREAD NORTH
INTO LYON AND MINERAL COUNTIES. WHILE SFC VSBY PROBABLY ONLY DROPS
TO THE 5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED
OVER KMMH. AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY, THE SMOKE AND HAZE
SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MJD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE SIERRA FRONT AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA.

TYPICAL ZEPHYR TYPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. ON WEDNESDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OREGON AND IDAHO.
THIS WILL INTENSIFY THERMAL GRADIENTS BETWEEN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL BRING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH FOR THE WESTERN BASIN, MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST IS FAIRLY HIGH, HUMIDITIES
ARE AN ISSUE FOR NORTHWEST NEVADA AND FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WITH
TEMPERATURES EASING DOWN ON WEDNESDAY NORTH OF I-80 AND NO LARGE-
SCALE DRY SLOT IN MODELS, HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AT
15-22% NORTH OF A RAVENDALE TO FOX MOUNTAIN LINE. SOUTH OF THERE TO
AROUND HIGHWAY 50 IN THE BASIN, HUMIDITIES LOOK SUFFICIENTLY LOW (IN
THE LOW TEENS ON AVERAGE) TO BRING CRITICAL CONDITIONS WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. FOR THE TAHOE BASIN AND DOWN INTO MONO-MINERAL
COUNTIES, HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
OVER 30 MPH FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA SO NO WATCH/WARNING IS EXPECTED
THERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INCREASED WINDS ALOFT MAY KEEP GUSTY WINDS GOING
FOR MID SLOPES BUT HUMIDITIES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CREEP HIGH
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

ON THURSDAY, WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS AS SOME
MODELS BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SIERRA FRONT AND BASIN AND RANGE
AGAIN. AT THIS TIME, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HUMIDITIES MAY RISE ABOVE
15% FOR MANY AREAS THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW AVERAGE.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER
WATCH COULD BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ450-453-458.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING CAZ278.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 312219
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
319 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED
WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BLOWING DUST. FURTHER COOLING IS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WHICH WILL BRING
INCREASED WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. SMOKE AND
HAZE WILL GET PUSHED UP INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTY TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING.

FOR TUESDAY, WINDS WILL BE TYPICAL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25-30 MPH. BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AND 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KTS, WE WILL SEE
WINDS INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE SIERRA FRONT AND WESTERN NEVADA
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WILL POSE A THREAT TO LAKE RECREATION AND
FIRE WEATHER, AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON FIRE IMPACTS. AS FOR BLACK ROCK
CITY, LOW VISIBILITIES MAY IMPACT FESTIVITIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

OTHER THAN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN TROUGH PASSAGES LATER
THIS WEEK, THE OVERALL FORECAST STILL REMAINS ON TRACK WITH COOLING
TREND AND BREEZY AT TIMES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
LIGHT WINDS AND SLOW WARMING TOWARD LABOR DAY. LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

THE FIRST TROUGH PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OF COOLING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 35
MPH ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NV BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NOT BE AS LOW COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AS THE
COOLER AIR MASS ARRIVES (GENERALLY MID-UPPER TEENS FOR WESTERN NV-
EASTERN MONO COUNTY, AND 20-25% FOR WESTERN MONO-TAHOE BASIN AND
NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV). THERE IS STILL A SMALL POCKET OF SLIGHT
INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWING UP NORTH OF CEDARVILLE,
SO WE WILL RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THERE FOR
THURSDAY.

THE SECOND TROUGH PASSAGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS APPEAR TO FAVOR SATURDAY
FOR THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. SO FOR NOW WE WILL
KEEP TEMPS NEARLY STEADY WITH WEAKER ZEPHYR BREEZES ON FRIDAY, THEN
PUSH WIND SPEEDS UP A LITTLE MORE AND DROP MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE
DEGREES ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY, THE FORECAST HIGHS WILL BOTTOM OUT
TO MAINLY THE 70S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH MID-UPPER 60S FOR
SIERRA VALLEYS AND AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH. SOME OF THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE SCENARIOS WOULD LEAD TO TEMPS AT LEAST 5
DEGREES COOLER AND EVEN BRING PRECIP TO SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-80,
BUT DUE TO GREATER UNCERTAINTY AMONG GUIDANCE SOURCES WE WILL GO
WITH A MIDDLE GROUND TYPE OF TEMPERATURE TREND FOR NOW.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, LIGHTER NORTHEAST-EAST
WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS OF MID 80S IN WESTERN NV BY MONDAY. A WEAK BAGGY
TROUGH MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE CA COAST AND LEAD TO SOME CUMULUS
BUILDUPS BY MONDAY, BUT INSTABILITY AND FORCING LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK
TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR DUE TO INCREASED WINDS ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.
WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20-25 KT, THEN
STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AROUND THE BLACK ROCK DESERT WHERE BLOWING DUST WILL
LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES, WHICH COULD DROP TO 1 MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
MONO COUNTY AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, AND ALSO SPREAD NORTH
INTO LYON AND MINERAL COUNTIES. WHILE SFC VSBY PROBABLY ONLY DROPS
TO THE 5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED
OVER KMMH. AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY, THE SMOKE AND HAZE
SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ450-453-458.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING CAZ278.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 312219
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
319 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED
WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BLOWING DUST. FURTHER COOLING IS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WHICH WILL BRING
INCREASED WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. SMOKE AND
HAZE WILL GET PUSHED UP INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTY TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING.

FOR TUESDAY, WINDS WILL BE TYPICAL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25-30 MPH. BY WEDNESDAY, AS THE TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AND 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KTS, WE WILL SEE
WINDS INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE SIERRA FRONT AND WESTERN NEVADA
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WILL POSE A THREAT TO LAKE RECREATION AND
FIRE WEATHER, AS WELL AS AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. SEE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON FIRE IMPACTS. AS FOR BLACK ROCK
CITY, LOW VISIBILITIES MAY IMPACT FESTIVITIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

OTHER THAN SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN TROUGH PASSAGES LATER
THIS WEEK, THE OVERALL FORECAST STILL REMAINS ON TRACK WITH COOLING
TREND AND BREEZY AT TIMES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
LIGHT WINDS AND SLOW WARMING TOWARD LABOR DAY. LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

THE FIRST TROUGH PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES OF COOLING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 35
MPH ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NV BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NOT BE AS LOW COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY AS THE
COOLER AIR MASS ARRIVES (GENERALLY MID-UPPER TEENS FOR WESTERN NV-
EASTERN MONO COUNTY, AND 20-25% FOR WESTERN MONO-TAHOE BASIN AND
NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV). THERE IS STILL A SMALL POCKET OF SLIGHT
INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWING UP NORTH OF CEDARVILLE,
SO WE WILL RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THERE FOR
THURSDAY.

THE SECOND TROUGH PASSAGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS APPEAR TO FAVOR SATURDAY
FOR THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM. SO FOR NOW WE WILL
KEEP TEMPS NEARLY STEADY WITH WEAKER ZEPHYR BREEZES ON FRIDAY, THEN
PUSH WIND SPEEDS UP A LITTLE MORE AND DROP MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE
DEGREES ON SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY, THE FORECAST HIGHS WILL BOTTOM OUT
TO MAINLY THE 70S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH MID-UPPER 60S FOR
SIERRA VALLEYS AND AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH. SOME OF THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE SCENARIOS WOULD LEAD TO TEMPS AT LEAST 5
DEGREES COOLER AND EVEN BRING PRECIP TO SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-80,
BUT DUE TO GREATER UNCERTAINTY AMONG GUIDANCE SOURCES WE WILL GO
WITH A MIDDLE GROUND TYPE OF TEMPERATURE TREND FOR NOW.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, LIGHTER NORTHEAST-EAST
WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY REBOUNDING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS OF MID 80S IN WESTERN NV BY MONDAY. A WEAK BAGGY
TROUGH MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE CA COAST AND LEAD TO SOME CUMULUS
BUILDUPS BY MONDAY, BUT INSTABILITY AND FORCING LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK
TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL
IMPACTS WILL OCCUR DUE TO INCREASED WINDS ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY.
WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS MAINLY 20-25 KT, THEN
STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AROUND THE BLACK ROCK DESERT WHERE BLOWING DUST WILL
LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES, WHICH COULD DROP TO 1 MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
MONO COUNTY AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, AND ALSO SPREAD NORTH
INTO LYON AND MINERAL COUNTIES. WHILE SFC VSBY PROBABLY ONLY DROPS
TO THE 5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED
OVER KMMH. AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY, THE SMOKE AND HAZE
SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ450-453-458.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING CAZ278.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 311031
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY. BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ON
THE PLAYA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
AVERAGE AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON WINDS. EXPECT SMOKE AND HAZE TO
CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES DUE
TO FAVORABLE FLOW OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE.

TROUGHING DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS DRY
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 30-35 MPH WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WITH DRY AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE, IT IS
LIKELY THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ASSUMING
FORECAST MODELS ARE ACCURATE. ALSO, WE COULD SEE SOME BLOWING DUST
ACROSS THE BLACK ROCK AND SMOKE CREEK DESERTS. THIS COULD POSE A
HAZARD FOR THOSE IN BLACK ROCK CITY AS VISIBILITY WORSENS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BOYD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, ONLY WARMING SLOWLY AS WE HEAD
TOWARD LABOR DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE FEATURE
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF TROUGH, CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, EACH MODEL RUN HAS NOT
BEEN CONSISTENT. TONIGHT, THE GFS IS MUCH FLATTER WITH SHORTWAVE
FEATURE AND KEEPS US QUITE DRY. THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. SO WE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION. AS FAR AS WINDS, THE FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA
WED-WED NIGHT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS WIND FOR THU-FRI. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE
GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20 KT TODAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH LAKES THIS MORNING, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO RETURN TODAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE
AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY
PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL
LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD/WH

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 311031
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY. BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ON
THE PLAYA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
AVERAGE AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON WINDS. EXPECT SMOKE AND HAZE TO
CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES DUE
TO FAVORABLE FLOW OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE.

TROUGHING DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS DRY
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 30-35 MPH WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WITH DRY AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE, IT IS
LIKELY THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ASSUMING
FORECAST MODELS ARE ACCURATE. ALSO, WE COULD SEE SOME BLOWING DUST
ACROSS THE BLACK ROCK AND SMOKE CREEK DESERTS. THIS COULD POSE A
HAZARD FOR THOSE IN BLACK ROCK CITY AS VISIBILITY WORSENS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BOYD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, ONLY WARMING SLOWLY AS WE HEAD
TOWARD LABOR DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE FEATURE
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF TROUGH, CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, EACH MODEL RUN HAS NOT
BEEN CONSISTENT. TONIGHT, THE GFS IS MUCH FLATTER WITH SHORTWAVE
FEATURE AND KEEPS US QUITE DRY. THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. SO WE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION. AS FAR AS WINDS, THE FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA
WED-WED NIGHT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS WIND FOR THU-FRI. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE
GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20 KT TODAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH LAKES THIS MORNING, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO RETURN TODAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE
AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY
PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL
LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD/WH

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 311031
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY. BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ON
THE PLAYA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
AVERAGE AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON WINDS. EXPECT SMOKE AND HAZE TO
CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES DUE
TO FAVORABLE FLOW OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE.

TROUGHING DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS DRY
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 30-35 MPH WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WITH DRY AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE, IT IS
LIKELY THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ASSUMING
FORECAST MODELS ARE ACCURATE. ALSO, WE COULD SEE SOME BLOWING DUST
ACROSS THE BLACK ROCK AND SMOKE CREEK DESERTS. THIS COULD POSE A
HAZARD FOR THOSE IN BLACK ROCK CITY AS VISIBILITY WORSENS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BOYD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, ONLY WARMING SLOWLY AS WE HEAD
TOWARD LABOR DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE FEATURE
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF TROUGH, CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, EACH MODEL RUN HAS NOT
BEEN CONSISTENT. TONIGHT, THE GFS IS MUCH FLATTER WITH SHORTWAVE
FEATURE AND KEEPS US QUITE DRY. THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. SO WE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION. AS FAR AS WINDS, THE FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA
WED-WED NIGHT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS WIND FOR THU-FRI. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE
GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20 KT TODAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH LAKES THIS MORNING, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO RETURN TODAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE
AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY
PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL
LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD/WH

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 311031
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY. BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY ON
THE PLAYA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
AVERAGE AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON WINDS. EXPECT SMOKE AND HAZE TO
CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES DUE
TO FAVORABLE FLOW OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE.

TROUGHING DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS DRY
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 30-35 MPH WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WITH DRY AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE, IT IS
LIKELY THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ASSUMING
FORECAST MODELS ARE ACCURATE. ALSO, WE COULD SEE SOME BLOWING DUST
ACROSS THE BLACK ROCK AND SMOKE CREEK DESERTS. THIS COULD POSE A
HAZARD FOR THOSE IN BLACK ROCK CITY AS VISIBILITY WORSENS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BOYD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, ONLY WARMING SLOWLY AS WE HEAD
TOWARD LABOR DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE FEATURE
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF TROUGH, CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, EACH MODEL RUN HAS NOT
BEEN CONSISTENT. TONIGHT, THE GFS IS MUCH FLATTER WITH SHORTWAVE
FEATURE AND KEEPS US QUITE DRY. THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. SO WE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION. AS FAR AS WINDS, THE FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA
WED-WED NIGHT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS WIND FOR THU-FRI. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE
GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20 KT TODAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH LAKES THIS MORNING, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO RETURN TODAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE
AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY
PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL
LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD/WH

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 310957
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY. BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
ON THE PLAYA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
AVERAGE AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON WINDS. EXPECT SMOKE AND HAZE TO
CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES DUE
TO FAVORABLE FLOW OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE.

TROUGHING DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS DRY
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 30-35 MPH WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WITH DRY AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE, IT IS
LIKELY THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ASSUMING
FORECAST MODELS ARE ACCURATE. ALSO, WE COULD SEE SOME BLOWING DUST
ACROSS THE BLACK ROCK AND SMOKE CREEK DESERTS. THIS COULD POSE A
HAZARD FOR THOSE IN BLACK ROCK CITY AS VISIBILITY WORSENS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BOYD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, ONLY WARMING SLOWLY AS WE HEAD
TOWARD LABOR DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE FEATURE
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF TROUGH, CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, EACH MODEL RUN HAS NOT
BEEN CONSISTENT. TONIGHT, THE GFS IS MUCH FLATTER WITH SHORTWAVE
FEATURE AND KEEPS US QUITE DRY. THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. SO WE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION. AS FAR AS WINDS, THE FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA
WED-WED NIGHT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS WIND FOR THU-FRI. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE
GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20 KT TODAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH LAKES THIS MORNING, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO RETURN TODAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE
AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY
PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL
LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD/WH

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 310957
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY. BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS INCREASE...ESPECIALLY
ON THE PLAYA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
AVERAGE AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON WINDS. EXPECT SMOKE AND HAZE TO
CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES DUE
TO FAVORABLE FLOW OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE.

TROUGHING DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS DRY
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
CREATING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 30-35 MPH WITH BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WITH DRY AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE, IT IS
LIKELY THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ASSUMING
FORECAST MODELS ARE ACCURATE. ALSO, WE COULD SEE SOME BLOWING DUST
ACROSS THE BLACK ROCK AND SMOKE CREEK DESERTS. THIS COULD POSE A
HAZARD FOR THOSE IN BLACK ROCK CITY AS VISIBILITY WORSENS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BOYD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, ONLY WARMING SLOWLY AS WE HEAD
TOWARD LABOR DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE FEATURE
MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF TROUGH, CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, EACH MODEL RUN HAS NOT
BEEN CONSISTENT. TONIGHT, THE GFS IS MUCH FLATTER WITH SHORTWAVE
FEATURE AND KEEPS US QUITE DRY. THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. SO WE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION. AS FAR AS WINDS, THE FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA
WED-WED NIGHT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS WIND FOR THU-FRI. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE
GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20 KT TODAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH LAKES THIS MORNING, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO RETURN TODAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE
AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY
PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL
LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD/WH

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 302035
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
135 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHORT TERM WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH TUESDAY AS
LIGHT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY. A LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP TOWARD
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY AND PROGRESSES INTO THE PAC NW TUESDAY.
OUR AREA STAYS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THIS TROUGH...THUS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS
WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...SO WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN IS TYPICAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A FEW LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERNIGHT AND MORNING WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES
LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW AN INCREASE IN SMOKE
FROM THE ROUGH FIRE INTO THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA...DEPENDING ON HOW
ACTIVE THE FIRE BECOMES.

WITH FAIRLY LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LIMITED CLOUDS...WE THINK
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT THESE
WILL START TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS IN FAVORED AREAS OF MONO AND MINERAL COUNTY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. OVERALL A SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 20

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ALSO BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LIGHTER EAST WINDS
NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FIRST SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL DROP TEMPS TO THE
80S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH UPPER 70S FOR NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV. BY THE TIME WE GET TO FRIDAY WHEN THE MAIN TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, TEMPS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO ONLY REACH THE 70S, EXCEPT LOWER 80S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 95
CORRIDOR. FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS, DAYTIME TEMPS COOL DOWN TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BY FRIDAY.

WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ARE LIKELY, WITH STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON,
SO DESPITE THE COOLING TREND THIS COMBINATION OF WIND, HUMIDITY AND
DRY VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

WHILE PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK, THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FROM
CEDARVILLE NORTH TO THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHEN
BANDS OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN OREGON.

FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, AS RIDGE REDEVELOPS NEAR THE WEST COAST,
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
70S-LOWER 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND 65-70 DEGREES FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS/LAKE TAHOE BASIN. DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL LEAD
TO CHILLY NIGHTS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S, EXCEPT LOWER
50S FOR WARMER URBAN VALLEYS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THRU MONDAY, WITH LATE
AFTERNOON SURFACE GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20-25 KT TODAY, AND UP TO 20
KT MONDAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH
LAKES TONIGHT, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO
RETURN MONDAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND
NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE
RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 302035
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
135 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHORT TERM WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH TUESDAY AS
LIGHT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY. A LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP TOWARD
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY AND PROGRESSES INTO THE PAC NW TUESDAY.
OUR AREA STAYS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THIS TROUGH...THUS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS
WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...SO WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN IS TYPICAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A FEW LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERNIGHT AND MORNING WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES
LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW AN INCREASE IN SMOKE
FROM THE ROUGH FIRE INTO THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA...DEPENDING ON HOW
ACTIVE THE FIRE BECOMES.

WITH FAIRLY LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LIMITED CLOUDS...WE THINK
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT THESE
WILL START TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS IN FAVORED AREAS OF MONO AND MINERAL COUNTY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. OVERALL A SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 20

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ALSO BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LIGHTER EAST WINDS
NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FIRST SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL DROP TEMPS TO THE
80S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH UPPER 70S FOR NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV. BY THE TIME WE GET TO FRIDAY WHEN THE MAIN TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, TEMPS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO ONLY REACH THE 70S, EXCEPT LOWER 80S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 95
CORRIDOR. FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS, DAYTIME TEMPS COOL DOWN TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BY FRIDAY.

WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ARE LIKELY, WITH STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON,
SO DESPITE THE COOLING TREND THIS COMBINATION OF WIND, HUMIDITY AND
DRY VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

WHILE PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK, THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FROM
CEDARVILLE NORTH TO THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHEN
BANDS OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN OREGON.

FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, AS RIDGE REDEVELOPS NEAR THE WEST COAST,
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
70S-LOWER 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND 65-70 DEGREES FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS/LAKE TAHOE BASIN. DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL LEAD
TO CHILLY NIGHTS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S, EXCEPT LOWER
50S FOR WARMER URBAN VALLEYS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THRU MONDAY, WITH LATE
AFTERNOON SURFACE GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20-25 KT TODAY, AND UP TO 20
KT MONDAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH
LAKES TONIGHT, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO
RETURN MONDAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND
NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE
RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 302035
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
135 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
FURTHER COOLING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHORT TERM WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH TUESDAY AS
LIGHT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY. A LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP TOWARD
THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY AND PROGRESSES INTO THE PAC NW TUESDAY.
OUR AREA STAYS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THIS TROUGH...THUS THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS
WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...SO WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN IS TYPICAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY
SEPTEMBER. A FEW LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT OVERNIGHT AND MORNING WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES
LIGHT SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW AN INCREASE IN SMOKE
FROM THE ROUGH FIRE INTO THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA...DEPENDING ON HOW
ACTIVE THE FIRE BECOMES.

WITH FAIRLY LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LIMITED CLOUDS...WE THINK
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AS EARLY AS MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT THESE
WILL START TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS IN FAVORED AREAS OF MONO AND MINERAL COUNTY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. OVERALL A SEASONAL
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 20

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ALSO BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LIGHTER EAST WINDS
NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FIRST SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL DROP TEMPS TO THE
80S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH UPPER 70S FOR NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV. BY THE TIME WE GET TO FRIDAY WHEN THE MAIN TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, TEMPS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO ONLY REACH THE 70S, EXCEPT LOWER 80S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 95
CORRIDOR. FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS, DAYTIME TEMPS COOL DOWN TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BY FRIDAY.

WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ARE LIKELY, WITH STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON,
SO DESPITE THE COOLING TREND THIS COMBINATION OF WIND, HUMIDITY AND
DRY VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

WHILE PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK, THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FROM
CEDARVILLE NORTH TO THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHEN
BANDS OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN OREGON.

FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND, AS RIDGE REDEVELOPS NEAR THE WEST COAST,
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID
70S-LOWER 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND 65-70 DEGREES FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS/LAKE TAHOE BASIN. DRY AIR MASS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL LEAD
TO CHILLY NIGHTS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S, EXCEPT LOWER
50S FOR WARMER URBAN VALLEYS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THRU MONDAY, WITH LATE
AFTERNOON SURFACE GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20-25 KT TODAY, AND UP TO 20
KT MONDAY. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF MAMMOTH
LAKES TONIGHT, BUT LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO
RETURN MONDAY, WHICH WOULD DRAW SMOKE AND HAZE NORTH ACROSS KMMH AND
NEAR MONO LAKE. WHILE SFC VSBY PROBABLY ONLY DROPS TO THE 5-7 MILE
RANGE, SLANTWISE VSBY WILL LIKELY BE MORE RESTRICTED OVER KMMH.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 301543
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
843 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...

JUST A MINOR UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ADD A FEW MORE CLOUDS THIS MORNING
TO SOME AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE SIERRA. WE ARE STILL SEEING STRONGER
WINDS OVER THE RIDGES THIS MORNING AND A LITTLE WAVE ACTION
ALOFT. THIS HAS PRODUCED SOME WAVE CLOUDS THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS SURFACING BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT IS LIKELY
WE WILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
SIERRA AND INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. SO THESE WERE INCREASED. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW. 20


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER
COOLING BY THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY.

SHORT TERM...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON MORE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
WITH THE BIG PICTURE REMAINING UNCHANGED. RELATIVELY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE, IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA, TODAY AND
TOMORROW BECOMING AROUND AVERAGE AGAIN BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREAT WITH WIND PRONE
AREAS NEARING BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE
ONLY OTHER CONSIDERATION IS BE SMOKE AND HAZE FOR SOUTHERN MONO
COUNTY. EXPECT ANOTHER CLEAR DAY TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN TO HAZY CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SMOKE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE. BOYD

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE SWINGING THROUGH THE PACNW DURING PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH OF OUR AREA. BOTH THE 00Z GFS/EC CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY, SO WE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PRECEDE THE TROUGH BOTH WED-THU. 700 FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND
30KT WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S WHICH WOULD PUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15% EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PART OF WESTERN NV AND THE EASTERN SIERRA
SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL
REBOUND QUICKLY NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER FRI-SAT. HOHMANN

AVIATION...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALOFT TODAY WITH SURFACE GUSTS
PEAKING AROUND 20-25KT. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
MODELS DO SHOW A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON MONDAY WHICH
COULD DRAW THE SMOKE BACK NORTH. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 301543
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
843 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...

JUST A MINOR UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ADD A FEW MORE CLOUDS THIS MORNING
TO SOME AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE SIERRA. WE ARE STILL SEEING STRONGER
WINDS OVER THE RIDGES THIS MORNING AND A LITTLE WAVE ACTION
ALOFT. THIS HAS PRODUCED SOME WAVE CLOUDS THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS SURFACING BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT IS LIKELY
WE WILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
SIERRA AND INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. SO THESE WERE INCREASED. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR NOW. 20


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER
COOLING BY THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY.

SHORT TERM...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON MORE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
WITH THE BIG PICTURE REMAINING UNCHANGED. RELATIVELY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE, IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA, TODAY AND
TOMORROW BECOMING AROUND AVERAGE AGAIN BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREAT WITH WIND PRONE
AREAS NEARING BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE
ONLY OTHER CONSIDERATION IS BE SMOKE AND HAZE FOR SOUTHERN MONO
COUNTY. EXPECT ANOTHER CLEAR DAY TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN TO HAZY CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SMOKE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE. BOYD

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE SWINGING THROUGH THE PACNW DURING PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH OF OUR AREA. BOTH THE 00Z GFS/EC CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY, SO WE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PRECEDE THE TROUGH BOTH WED-THU. 700 FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND
30KT WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S WHICH WOULD PUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15% EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PART OF WESTERN NV AND THE EASTERN SIERRA
SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL
REBOUND QUICKLY NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER FRI-SAT. HOHMANN

AVIATION...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALOFT TODAY WITH SURFACE GUSTS
PEAKING AROUND 20-25KT. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
MODELS DO SHOW A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON MONDAY WHICH
COULD DRAW THE SMOKE BACK NORTH. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 300956 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
253 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER
COOLING BY THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON MORE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
WITH THE BIG PICTURE REMAINING UNCHANGED. RELATIVELY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE, IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA, TODAY AND
TOMORROW BECOMING AROUND AVERAGE AGAIN BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREAT WITH WIND PRONE
AREAS NEARING BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE
ONLY OTHER CONSIDERATION IS BE SMOKE AND HAZE FOR SOUTHERN MONO
COUNTY. EXPECT ANOTHER CLEAR DAY TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN TO HAZY CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SMOKE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE. BOYD

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE SWINGING THROUGH THE PACNW DURING PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH OF OUR AREA. BOTH THE 00Z GFS/EC CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY, SO WE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PRECEDE THE TROUGH BOTH WED-THU. 700 FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND
30KT WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S WHICH WOULD PUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15% EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PART OF WESTERN NV AND THE EASTERN SIERRA
SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL
REBOUND QUICKLY NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER FRI-SAT. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALOFT TODAY WITH SURFACE GUSTS
PEAKING AROUND 20-25KT. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
MODELS DO SHOW A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON MONDAY WHICH
COULD DRAW THE SMOKE BACK NORTH. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NV...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 300956 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
253 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER
COOLING BY THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON MORE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
WITH THE BIG PICTURE REMAINING UNCHANGED. RELATIVELY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE, IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA, TODAY AND
TOMORROW BECOMING AROUND AVERAGE AGAIN BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREAT WITH WIND PRONE
AREAS NEARING BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE
ONLY OTHER CONSIDERATION IS BE SMOKE AND HAZE FOR SOUTHERN MONO
COUNTY. EXPECT ANOTHER CLEAR DAY TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN TO HAZY CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SMOKE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE. BOYD

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE SWINGING THROUGH THE PACNW DURING PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH OF OUR AREA. BOTH THE 00Z GFS/EC CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY, SO WE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PRECEDE THE TROUGH BOTH WED-THU. 700 FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND
30KT WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S WHICH WOULD PUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15% EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PART OF WESTERN NV AND THE EASTERN SIERRA
SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL
REBOUND QUICKLY NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER FRI-SAT. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALOFT TODAY WITH SURFACE GUSTS
PEAKING AROUND 20-25KT. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
MODELS DO SHOW A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON MONDAY WHICH
COULD DRAW THE SMOKE BACK NORTH. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NV...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 300956 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
253 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER
COOLING BY THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON MORE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
WITH THE BIG PICTURE REMAINING UNCHANGED. RELATIVELY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE, IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA, TODAY AND
TOMORROW BECOMING AROUND AVERAGE AGAIN BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREAT WITH WIND PRONE
AREAS NEARING BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE
ONLY OTHER CONSIDERATION IS BE SMOKE AND HAZE FOR SOUTHERN MONO
COUNTY. EXPECT ANOTHER CLEAR DAY TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN TO HAZY CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SMOKE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE. BOYD

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE SWINGING THROUGH THE PACNW DURING PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH OF OUR AREA. BOTH THE 00Z GFS/EC CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY, SO WE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PRECEDE THE TROUGH BOTH WED-THU. 700 FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND
30KT WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S WHICH WOULD PUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15% EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PART OF WESTERN NV AND THE EASTERN SIERRA
SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL
REBOUND QUICKLY NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER FRI-SAT. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALOFT TODAY WITH SURFACE GUSTS
PEAKING AROUND 20-25KT. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
MODELS DO SHOW A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON MONDAY WHICH
COULD DRAW THE SMOKE BACK NORTH. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NV...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 300953
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
253 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER
COOLING BY THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON MORE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
WITH THE BIG PICTURE REMAINING UNCHANGED. RELATIVELY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE, IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA, TODAY AND
TOMORROW BECOMING AROUND AVERAGE AGAIN BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREAT WITH WIND PRONE
AREAS NEARING BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE
ONLY OTHER CONSIDERATION IS BE SMOKE AND HAZE FOR SOUTHERN MONO
COUNTY. EXPECT ANOTHER CLEAR DAY TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN TO HAZY CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES FOR
FAVORABLE FOR SMOKE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE. BOYD

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE SWINGING THROUGH THE PACNW DURING PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH OF OUR AREA. BOTH THE 00Z GFS/EC CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY, SO WE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PRECEDE THE TROUGH BOTH WED-THU. 700 FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND
30KT WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S WHICH WOULD PUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15% EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PART OF WESTERN NV AND THE EASTERN SIERRA
SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL
REBOUND QUICKLY NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER FRI-SAT. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALOFT TODAY WITH SURFACE GUSTS
PEAKING AROUND 20-25KT. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
MODELS DO SHOW A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON MONDAY WHICH
COULD DRAW THE SMOKE BACK NORTH. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NV...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 300953
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
253 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER
COOLING BY THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON MORE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
WITH THE BIG PICTURE REMAINING UNCHANGED. RELATIVELY BENIGN
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE, IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA, TODAY AND
TOMORROW BECOMING AROUND AVERAGE AGAIN BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREAT WITH WIND PRONE
AREAS NEARING BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE
ONLY OTHER CONSIDERATION IS BE SMOKE AND HAZE FOR SOUTHERN MONO
COUNTY. EXPECT ANOTHER CLEAR DAY TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RETURN TO HAZY CONDITIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES FOR
FAVORABLE FOR SMOKE TRANSPORT OFF OF THE ROUGH FIRE. BOYD

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH WILL
BE SWINGING THROUGH THE PACNW DURING PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE STAYING NORTH OF OUR AREA. BOTH THE 00Z GFS/EC CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF NEAR THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY, SO WE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL PRECEDE THE TROUGH BOTH WED-THU. 700 FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND
30KT WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S WHICH WOULD PUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15% EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PART OF WESTERN NV AND THE EASTERN SIERRA
SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL
REBOUND QUICKLY NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER FRI-SAT. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ALOFT TODAY WITH SURFACE GUSTS
PEAKING AROUND 20-25KT. SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE WILL STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MAMMOTH LAKES AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
MODELS DO SHOW A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON MONDAY WHICH
COULD DRAW THE SMOKE BACK NORTH. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NV...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 300344
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
844 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...

WINDS ARE STILL SLOWLY DECREASING OVER THE REGION AND LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE WILL
LET THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE TAHOE CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY DECREASE FASTER THAN WE HAVE
FORECAST. THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY AND REMAINING RED FLAG
WARNINGS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM. SOME AREAS MAY SEE
LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD
STRONGER WINDS SHOULD BE DONE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL START TO RISE
AS WELL...LIMITING THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FEW
AREAS OF LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST ARE STILL POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY
95...BUT THESE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXTENDING
THE ADVISORY. 20

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 THIS
EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING BY MIDWEEK.



&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

UPDATE...

GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT THEY ARE NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH IN MOST AREAS ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT TO WARRANT EXTENDING
THE ADVISORIES. SO...WHILE A FEW WIND PRONE AREAS FROM CARSON CITY
SOUTH TO BRIDGEPORT MAY GUST TO NEAR 50 MPH FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE GUSTS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 40 MPH.
THUS THE WIND ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

AS FOR THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY. WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOWERED VISIBILITY INTO THE EVENING. JUST RECENTLY FALLON WAS AT 4
MILES. WE HAVE EXTENDED THIS ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AS WINDS GUSTING
TO JUST 30 MPH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD CAN LOFT FINER GRAINED
DUST.

THE RED FLAG WARNINGS WERE ALSO EXTENDED AS GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40
MPH WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
INCREASING ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT...BUT FUELS ARE QUITE DRY AND
THE EXTENDED PERIOD GUSTY WINDS IS ENOUGH TO POSSIBLE CAUSE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THUS THE RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE
NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM WHEN THE WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING AND
THE HUMIDITY RISING MORE. 20

SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 THIS
EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING BY MIDWEEK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95
THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING BY MIDWEEK.

SHORT TERM...

WE WILL KEEP THE WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
ADVISORIES ARE SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM, WHEN WIND SPEEDS ARE
LIKELY TO START DECREASING. WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED IN
THE 35-40 MPH RANGE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCAL
GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. RIDGE TOP GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM
50-60 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE CLEARED UP FROM THE MAMMOTH
LAKES AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND WIND TRAJECTORIES
SHOULD LIMIT HAZE TO FAR SOUTHEAST MONO COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FOR THIS EVENING, THE GFS HAS MAINTAINED AN AREA OF SLIGHT
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IN WEST CENTRAL NV, AS A
WEAK UPPER WAVE IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS MOVES OVER THIS AREA.
ISOLATED BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP NEAR AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 95, BUT THUNDERSTORMS AND WETTING RAINS ARE
UNLIKELY.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, LIGHTER SOUTHWEST-WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO LATE DAY ZEPHYR-TYPE BREEZES, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH
EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR WESTERN NV AND 70-75 FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS, THEN EDGE UPWARD ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES FOR MONDAY. DRY AIR
MASS AND SPARSE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE RATHER
CHILLY CONDITIONS, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF
WESTERN NV, AND UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN TYPICALLY COOLER LOWER
ELEVATION SITES. THE COLDER VALLEYS NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN
NORTHEAST CA COULD EVEN DROP TO NEAR FREEZING. MJD

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

LIMITED CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY AS
THE MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

INCOMING TROUGH FOR TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH HIGH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE...
THEN THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PAC NW FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SHOWED COLDER AIR DIPPING FARTHER
SOUTH AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIED...BUT NOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS
BACKED OFF THIS COLDER SOLUTION A LITTLE. THE ECMWF REMAINS DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND IS ALSO LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH LIFTING IT OUT.
THE GFS SWINGS THE MOST VIGOROUS PART OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE THE ECMWF
HOLDS ON TO THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SPLIT WITH SOME SUPPORTING THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OTHERS MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLING THE ECMWF. GIVEN
THE INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS...WILL OPT TO LIMIT THE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP TEMPS AT A MIDDLE GROUND...
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS AND THE COLDER ECMWF. THIS ALSO
AFFECTS THE WIND FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BUT THE STRONGEST APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER FOR THURSDAY AS THE
CORE OF THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. 20

AVIATION...

SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE PAC NW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES AWAY THE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING COULD STILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE SIERRA...ALONG WITH TURBULENCE INDUCED BY FLOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. AS THE WIND DIRECTION AT THE SURFACE SHIFTS TO THE WEST
THEN WEST-NORTHWEST...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE LESS OF A
POSSIBILITY.

WINDS AT ALL LEVELS DECREASE FOR SUNDAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON GUSTS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE.

SMOKE AND HAZE NEAR KMMH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON
MONDAY AND THIS COULD DRAW SMOKE AND HAZE BACK INTO THE AREA OF
KMMH. 20

FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS DID NOT MATERIALIZE AS STRONG AS ANTICIPATED TODAY, BUT MANY
VALLEYS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA HAVE SEEN GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 45 MPH RANGE, WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 65 MPH IN THE SIERRA.
WILL KEEP CURRENT RED FLAG WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH 6 PM THIS
EVENING. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE HIGHER THAN WHAT IS
TYPICAL OF LATE AUGUST, THEY WILL STILL BE IN THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE AND WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH DRY FUELS ARE CREATING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH MORE
TYPICAL SPEEDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TONIGHT, BUT WITH DRIER AIR
RETURNING SUNDAY, TYPICAL LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN
SUNDAY. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY NVZ002.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 300344
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
844 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...

WINDS ARE STILL SLOWLY DECREASING OVER THE REGION AND LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE WILL
LET THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE TAHOE CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY DECREASE FASTER THAN WE HAVE
FORECAST. THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY AND REMAINING RED FLAG
WARNINGS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM. SOME AREAS MAY SEE
LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD
STRONGER WINDS SHOULD BE DONE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL START TO RISE
AS WELL...LIMITING THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FEW
AREAS OF LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST ARE STILL POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY
95...BUT THESE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXTENDING
THE ADVISORY. 20

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 THIS
EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING BY MIDWEEK.



&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

UPDATE...

GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT THEY ARE NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH IN MOST AREAS ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT TO WARRANT EXTENDING
THE ADVISORIES. SO...WHILE A FEW WIND PRONE AREAS FROM CARSON CITY
SOUTH TO BRIDGEPORT MAY GUST TO NEAR 50 MPH FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE GUSTS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 40 MPH.
THUS THE WIND ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

AS FOR THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY. WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOWERED VISIBILITY INTO THE EVENING. JUST RECENTLY FALLON WAS AT 4
MILES. WE HAVE EXTENDED THIS ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AS WINDS GUSTING
TO JUST 30 MPH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD CAN LOFT FINER GRAINED
DUST.

THE RED FLAG WARNINGS WERE ALSO EXTENDED AS GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40
MPH WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
INCREASING ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT...BUT FUELS ARE QUITE DRY AND
THE EXTENDED PERIOD GUSTY WINDS IS ENOUGH TO POSSIBLE CAUSE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THUS THE RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE
NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM WHEN THE WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING AND
THE HUMIDITY RISING MORE. 20

SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 THIS
EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING BY MIDWEEK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95
THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING BY MIDWEEK.

SHORT TERM...

WE WILL KEEP THE WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
ADVISORIES ARE SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM, WHEN WIND SPEEDS ARE
LIKELY TO START DECREASING. WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED IN
THE 35-40 MPH RANGE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCAL
GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. RIDGE TOP GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM
50-60 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE CLEARED UP FROM THE MAMMOTH
LAKES AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND WIND TRAJECTORIES
SHOULD LIMIT HAZE TO FAR SOUTHEAST MONO COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FOR THIS EVENING, THE GFS HAS MAINTAINED AN AREA OF SLIGHT
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IN WEST CENTRAL NV, AS A
WEAK UPPER WAVE IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS MOVES OVER THIS AREA.
ISOLATED BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP NEAR AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 95, BUT THUNDERSTORMS AND WETTING RAINS ARE
UNLIKELY.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, LIGHTER SOUTHWEST-WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO LATE DAY ZEPHYR-TYPE BREEZES, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH
EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR WESTERN NV AND 70-75 FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS, THEN EDGE UPWARD ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES FOR MONDAY. DRY AIR
MASS AND SPARSE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE RATHER
CHILLY CONDITIONS, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF
WESTERN NV, AND UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN TYPICALLY COOLER LOWER
ELEVATION SITES. THE COLDER VALLEYS NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN
NORTHEAST CA COULD EVEN DROP TO NEAR FREEZING. MJD

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

LIMITED CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY AS
THE MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

INCOMING TROUGH FOR TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH HIGH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE...
THEN THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PAC NW FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SHOWED COLDER AIR DIPPING FARTHER
SOUTH AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIED...BUT NOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS
BACKED OFF THIS COLDER SOLUTION A LITTLE. THE ECMWF REMAINS DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND IS ALSO LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH LIFTING IT OUT.
THE GFS SWINGS THE MOST VIGOROUS PART OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE THE ECMWF
HOLDS ON TO THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SPLIT WITH SOME SUPPORTING THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OTHERS MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLING THE ECMWF. GIVEN
THE INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS...WILL OPT TO LIMIT THE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP TEMPS AT A MIDDLE GROUND...
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS AND THE COLDER ECMWF. THIS ALSO
AFFECTS THE WIND FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BUT THE STRONGEST APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER FOR THURSDAY AS THE
CORE OF THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. 20

AVIATION...

SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE PAC NW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES AWAY THE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING COULD STILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE SIERRA...ALONG WITH TURBULENCE INDUCED BY FLOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. AS THE WIND DIRECTION AT THE SURFACE SHIFTS TO THE WEST
THEN WEST-NORTHWEST...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE LESS OF A
POSSIBILITY.

WINDS AT ALL LEVELS DECREASE FOR SUNDAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON GUSTS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE.

SMOKE AND HAZE NEAR KMMH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON
MONDAY AND THIS COULD DRAW SMOKE AND HAZE BACK INTO THE AREA OF
KMMH. 20

FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS DID NOT MATERIALIZE AS STRONG AS ANTICIPATED TODAY, BUT MANY
VALLEYS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA HAVE SEEN GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 45 MPH RANGE, WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 65 MPH IN THE SIERRA.
WILL KEEP CURRENT RED FLAG WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH 6 PM THIS
EVENING. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE HIGHER THAN WHAT IS
TYPICAL OF LATE AUGUST, THEY WILL STILL BE IN THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE AND WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH DRY FUELS ARE CREATING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH MORE
TYPICAL SPEEDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TONIGHT, BUT WITH DRIER AIR
RETURNING SUNDAY, TYPICAL LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN
SUNDAY. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY NVZ002.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 300344
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
844 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...

WINDS ARE STILL SLOWLY DECREASING OVER THE REGION AND LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE WILL
LET THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE TAHOE CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY DECREASE FASTER THAN WE HAVE
FORECAST. THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY AND REMAINING RED FLAG
WARNINGS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM. SOME AREAS MAY SEE
LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT THE WIDESPREAD
STRONGER WINDS SHOULD BE DONE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL START TO RISE
AS WELL...LIMITING THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FEW
AREAS OF LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST ARE STILL POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY
95...BUT THESE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT EXTENDING
THE ADVISORY. 20

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 THIS
EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING BY MIDWEEK.



&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

UPDATE...

GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT THEY ARE NOT QUITE STRONG
ENOUGH IN MOST AREAS ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT TO WARRANT EXTENDING
THE ADVISORIES. SO...WHILE A FEW WIND PRONE AREAS FROM CARSON CITY
SOUTH TO BRIDGEPORT MAY GUST TO NEAR 50 MPH FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE GUSTS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 40 MPH.
THUS THE WIND ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

AS FOR THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY. WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOWERED VISIBILITY INTO THE EVENING. JUST RECENTLY FALLON WAS AT 4
MILES. WE HAVE EXTENDED THIS ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AS WINDS GUSTING
TO JUST 30 MPH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD CAN LOFT FINER GRAINED
DUST.

THE RED FLAG WARNINGS WERE ALSO EXTENDED AS GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40
MPH WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
INCREASING ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT...BUT FUELS ARE QUITE DRY AND
THE EXTENDED PERIOD GUSTY WINDS IS ENOUGH TO POSSIBLE CAUSE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THUS THE RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE
NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM WHEN THE WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING AND
THE HUMIDITY RISING MORE. 20

SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 THIS
EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING BY MIDWEEK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 95
THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK. TYPICAL LATE DAY BREEZES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING INCREASED WINDS AND FURTHER COOLING BY MIDWEEK.

SHORT TERM...

WE WILL KEEP THE WIND HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
ADVISORIES ARE SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM, WHEN WIND SPEEDS ARE
LIKELY TO START DECREASING. WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED IN
THE 35-40 MPH RANGE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCAL
GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. RIDGE TOP GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM
50-60 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE CLEARED UP FROM THE MAMMOTH
LAKES AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND WIND TRAJECTORIES
SHOULD LIMIT HAZE TO FAR SOUTHEAST MONO COUNTY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

FOR THIS EVENING, THE GFS HAS MAINTAINED AN AREA OF SLIGHT
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IN WEST CENTRAL NV, AS A
WEAK UPPER WAVE IN THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS MOVES OVER THIS AREA.
ISOLATED BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP NEAR AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 95, BUT THUNDERSTORMS AND WETTING RAINS ARE
UNLIKELY.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, LIGHTER SOUTHWEST-WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO LATE DAY ZEPHYR-TYPE BREEZES, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 20-25 MPH
EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR WESTERN NV AND 70-75 FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS, THEN EDGE UPWARD ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES FOR MONDAY. DRY AIR
MASS AND SPARSE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE RATHER
CHILLY CONDITIONS, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF
WESTERN NV, AND UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN TYPICALLY COOLER LOWER
ELEVATION SITES. THE COLDER VALLEYS NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN
NORTHEAST CA COULD EVEN DROP TO NEAR FREEZING. MJD

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

LIMITED CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST TODAY AS
THE MEDIUM RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

INCOMING TROUGH FOR TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH HIGH TEMPS ABOVE AVERAGE...
THEN THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PAC NW FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SHOWED COLDER AIR DIPPING FARTHER
SOUTH AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIED...BUT NOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS
BACKED OFF THIS COLDER SOLUTION A LITTLE. THE ECMWF REMAINS DEEPER
WITH THE TROUGH AND IS ALSO LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH LIFTING IT OUT.
THE GFS SWINGS THE MOST VIGOROUS PART OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE THE ECMWF
HOLDS ON TO THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SPLIT WITH SOME SUPPORTING THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND OTHERS MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLING THE ECMWF. GIVEN
THE INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS...WILL OPT TO LIMIT THE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WILL KEEP TEMPS AT A MIDDLE GROUND...
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS AND THE COLDER ECMWF. THIS ALSO
AFFECTS THE WIND FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BUT THE STRONGEST APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY. WILL ADD
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER FOR THURSDAY AS THE
CORE OF THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. 20

AVIATION...

SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE PAC NW WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TONIGHT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES AWAY THE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING COULD STILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE SIERRA...ALONG WITH TURBULENCE INDUCED BY FLOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. AS THE WIND DIRECTION AT THE SURFACE SHIFTS TO THE WEST
THEN WEST-NORTHWEST...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE LESS OF A
POSSIBILITY.

WINDS AT ALL LEVELS DECREASE FOR SUNDAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON GUSTS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE.

SMOKE AND HAZE NEAR KMMH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AGAIN ON
MONDAY AND THIS COULD DRAW SMOKE AND HAZE BACK INTO THE AREA OF
KMMH. 20

FIRE WEATHER...

WINDS DID NOT MATERIALIZE AS STRONG AS ANTICIPATED TODAY, BUT MANY
VALLEYS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA HAVE SEEN GUSTS IN THE
35 TO 45 MPH RANGE, WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 65 MPH IN THE SIERRA.
WILL KEEP CURRENT RED FLAG WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH 6 PM THIS
EVENING. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE HIGHER THAN WHAT IS
TYPICAL OF LATE AUGUST, THEY WILL STILL BE IN THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE AND WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH DRY FUELS ARE CREATING CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH MORE
TYPICAL SPEEDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TONIGHT, BUT WITH DRIER AIR
RETURNING SUNDAY, TYPICAL LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN
SUNDAY. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY NVZ002.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




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