000
FXUS65 KREV 190933
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
233 AM PDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO MONDAY WITH
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA TUESDAY, WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA, COOLER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
EXITING SHORTWAVE IS KEEPING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES EASTWARD A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS WORKING
INTO THE REGION CARE OF AN EXPANDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WEST COAST. AN EASTERLY GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES, WITH ENOUGH OF A THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE SIERRA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT TO INDUCE STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS IN THE TAHOE BASIN
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. GENERALLY WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO REMAIN
AROUND 25 MPH, AND THEREFORE NO LAKE WIND ADVISORIES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS TIME. THE EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL LIMIT THE WARMING
POTENTIAL TODAY, WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR AVERAGE.
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY BRINGING WARMING AND
ADDITIONAL DRYING TO THE REGION. THERE IS A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT MONDAY MORNING AND EXPECT THAT BETWEEN THIS AND THE LINGERING
EASTERLY WINDS, HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ON MIDSLOPES WILL BE FAIRLY
POOR. GRADIENT WEAKENS MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.
A DEEP, COLD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY, BACKED BY A 110 KT JET. THIS WILL INDUCE
STRONG THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA, THE SIERRA, AND WESTERN NEVADA ON TUESDAY. HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF RAISING WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION, BUT
THESE MAY NEED TO EVEN BE BUMPED UP FURTHER DEPENDING ON HOW THE
TREND OF THIS LOW PROGRESSES IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SEE BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS. DF
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE UPPER LOW TO AFFECT
THE WESTERN U.S. LATER THIS WEEK. THE GFS/EC/GEM ALL IN LINE WITH
DROPPING THE LOW SOUTHWARD AND JUST NORTH OF THE CA/NV BORDER FOR
WED INTO THU. THIS POSITIONS IS CLOSER TO THE EC RUNS OF THE PAST
FEW DAYS, BUT OF NOTE, ALL THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY COOLER WITH TEMPS
WED/THU THAN EVEN THE EC WAS YESTERDAY. WITH THE BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST ALTHOUGH
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED OF SMALL CHANGES IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
HAVE COOLED OFF TEMPS WED/THU WITH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE 50S
FOR THE SIERRA AND 60S FOR WRN NV. ALSO, WITH THE LOW TRACKING JUST
NORTH OF THE SIERRA AND WRN NV HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT. ADDED A
SLIGHT CHC NEAR THE OREGON BORDER WED AND BROUGHT A SLIGHT CHANCE
FURTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS COULD DROP AS LOW AS 6000
FEET TOWARD SUSANVILLE WITH THE LATEST FCST. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
TUESDAY BOTH DAYS BUT LOCALLY BREEZY WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT
TIMES.
FOR FRI/SAT, MODELS PULL THE MAIN LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, BUT
DIFFER ON HOW MUCH OF A HANG BACK TROUGH REMAINS. GFS HAS A STRONGER
TROUGH AND IS ALSO COOLER. DESPITE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES, TEMPS WILL
MODERATE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THERE COULD
ALSO BE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO, HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY WITH
LITTLE FORCING INDICATED ON ANY OF THE MODELS, INCLUDING THE GFS.
WALLMANN
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER
PERSHING/CHURCHILL COUNTIES. EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST BY 13Z. AS
FOR TERMINALS, EXPECT NORTH WINDS NEAR 10-15 KTS TODAY WITH VFR CONDS.
WINDS TO WEAKEN TONIGHT FOR TERMINALS BUT WILL KEEP GOING A BIT FROM
THE NE OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES. COULD BE LOCALIZED LLWS AND
TURBULENCE NEAR LAKE TAHOE, BUT OTHERWISE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPACT
FROM THESE WINDS. A STRONGER SW WIND EVENT IS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY.
WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KREV 182123
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
223 PM PDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT WILL
BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE TO
GERLACH LINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, WITH COOLER CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS LATER
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING SHOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF A
GERLACH TO SUSANVILLE LINE. INSTABILITY STILL SEEMS A BIT MARGINAL
FOR DEEP CONVECTION GIVEN SOME WARMING ALOFT NOTED IN SOUNDINGS.
THERE IS SOME JET ENHANCEMENT...BUT DO NOT KNOW IF THIS CAN OVERCOME
THE WARMING ALOFT. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION SHOWERS AS THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDER IS LESS THAN 10%. WINDS MAY NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE
OVER NRN AREAS TONIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS THE SAME OR A
LITTLE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
LATE TONIGHT THIS TROUGH MOVES AWAY WHILE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DRYING IN THE
MID LVLS ALONG WITH WARMING ALOFT. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A
THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE SIERRA BY SUNDAY NIGHT TO INDUCE AN
EASTERLY GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS IN THE TAHOE BASIN THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT APPEAR THESE WINDS WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...BUT GUSTS TO 25
MPH MAY BE COMMON ON THE LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT.
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY. TEMPS SHOULD WARM SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE MID SLOPES AND MONDAY DURING THE DAY EVERYWHERE WITH
WINDS REMAINING LIGHT. MOISTURE APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN NO MORE THAN FLAT HIGH BASED CUMULUS FOR
MONDAY. MID SLOPE TEMPS SHOULD WARM A BIT MORE FOR MONDAY NIGHT
WHILE HUMIDITY REMAINS RATHER LOW ON THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES. 20
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MID RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EXIT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK AS BROAD
TROUGHING SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. LOW PRESSURE
DROPS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND BECOMES CUT OFF FROM UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE LOW
STALLING OVER OREGON.
FROM MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS VERY HIGH AS
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE MODEL MEMBERS
EVEN THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME TO MORE OF A
CONSENSUS. THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BOTH SHOW SEVERAL TROUGHS
PINWHEELING AROUND THE LOW, BUT THE TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. ALSO,
MODELS ARE NOT AS DEEP WITH THE TROUGHING AS PREVIOUS RUNS
AND KEEP THE LOW`S CENTER NORTH OF THE CA/OR BORDER. THEREFORE, HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
FOR NORTHERN LASSEN, MODOC, AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTIES.
PERHAPS OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE SHOWN THAT TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS
40-45 MPH AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT TIGHTENS. NOW CURRENT RUNS ARE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE SPEEDS ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. HAVE INCREASED
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
STILL, WINDS MAY END UP SLIGHTLY LESS BREEZY THAN TUESDAY WITH GUSTS
FROM 30-40 MPH. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOONS
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS WE MAINTAIN A STRONG NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED THERMAL GRADIENT. BOYD
&&
.AVIATION...
LOCALLY BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DECREASING TONIGHT. CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE FAR
NORTH WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...BUT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL. RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD SUNDAY WITH A DECREASE
IN WINDS. SIERRA TO WRN NV BASIN THERMAL GRADIENT SHOULD NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH SUNDAY TO INDUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTY WEST WINDS
EAST OF THE SIERRA...BUT THERMAL GRADIENT REVERSES OVERNIGHT WITH
STRONGER WINDS IN THE TAHOE BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. 20
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KREV 181704
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1004 AM PDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THIS MORNING`S MODEL RUN SHOWS SOME
INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR NRN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH PWATS IN THE 0.40-0.50 RANGE. LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY AM
SEEING SOME WAVE CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
THIS MORNING. SO GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A STABLE LAYER ALOFT AND
SOME WARMING ALOFT LATER TODAY AM THINKING THAT DEEP CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THUS WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND REEVALUATE FOR THE EARLY EVENING AS WE
GO THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 AM PDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY WILL BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE. OTHERWISE,
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS DUE TO DROP INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS, COOLER CONDITIONS, AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY EXPANDING INTO THE WEST COAST,
BUT WILL BE HELD BACK BY A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS WAVE WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING DECENT INSTABILITY AND THERE IS A JET MAX PRESENT,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY DUE TO WARMING ALOFT HELPING TO CAP
DEEPER CONVECTION. AS THE WAVE PASSES, WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THIS WILL BRING
LOCALLY CHOPPY CONDITIONS TO AREA LAKES, ESPECIALLY PYRAMID LAKE
WHICH RESPONDS WELL TO NORTH WINDS. NO LAKE WIND ADVISORIES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME AS WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS. NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY, LIMITING THE WARMING POTENTIAL. FLOW TURNS BACK
TO THE WEST MONDAY, AND THE INCREASED MIXING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. DF
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TREND TO A COOLER,
BREEZY PATTERN NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THEY STILL DIFFER ON THE DEPTH OF
THE TROUGH AND THUS HOW COLD/RAIN CHANCES WED AND BEYOND. EC IS
OVERALL DEEPER THIS MORNING ONCE AGAIN WHILE THE GFS IS FLATTER
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE LOW IN WASHINGTON. GFS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE
CONSISTENT OVERALL AS 12Z EC KEPT THE LOW FURTHER NORTH. OVERALL,
CONTINUE A BLEND OF THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES AS THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A
LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH NO PREFERRED SOLUTION YET.
TUESDAY STILL LOOKS WINDY WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. IT WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT AND MODELS
ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE FRONT. WINDS COULD GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE
WEAKENING BEHIND. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LESS WINDY AND COOLER AND STILL
DRY AS THE DRY SLOT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR THURS/FRI, EC BRINGS LOW FURTHER SOUTH MOVING NORTH OF I-80
THURSDAY NIGHT SUPPORTING SOME PRECIP CHANCES WHILE GFS REMAINS DRY.
HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE/GERLACH BOTH
DAYS AS A COMPROMISE AND ALSO KEPT TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION, IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOONS. WITH A DECENT THERMAL GRADIENT REMAINING OVER NEVADA.
WALLMANN
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. BREEZY W-NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVE
NEAR 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS INCLUDING TERMINALS FROM 21-04Z.
WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KREV 180924
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
224 AM PDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY WILL BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE. OTHERWISE,
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS DUE TO DROP INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS, COOLER CONDITIONS, AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY EXPANDING INTO THE WEST COAST,
BUT WILL BE HELD BACK BY A SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY. THIS WAVE WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING DECENT INSTABILITY AND THERE IS A JET MAX PRESENT,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY DUE TO WARMING ALOFT HELPING TO CAP
DEEPER CONVECTION. AS THE WAVE PASSES, WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THIS WILL BRING
LOCALLY CHOPPY CONDITIONS TO AREA LAKES, ESPECIALLY PYRAMID LAKE
WHICH RESPONDS WELL TO NORTH WINDS. NO LAKE WIND ADVISORIES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME AS WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MILD
AND DRY CONDITIONS. NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY, LIMITING THE WARMING POTENTIAL. FLOW TURNS BACK
TO THE WEST MONDAY, AND THE INCREASED MIXING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. DF
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TREND TO A COOLER,
BREEZY PATTERN NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THEY STILL DIFFER ON THE DEPTH OF
THE TROUGH AND THUS HOW COLD/RAIN CHANCES WED AND BEYOND. EC IS
OVERALL DEEPER THIS MORNING ONCE AGAIN WHILE THE GFS IS FLATTER
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE LOW IN WASHINGTON. GFS HAS BEEN A BIT MORE
CONSISTENT OVERALL AS 12Z EC KEPT THE LOW FURTHER NORTH. OVERALL,
CONTINUE A BLEND OF THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES AS THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A
LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH NO PREFERRED SOLUTION YET.
TUESDAY STILL LOOKS WINDY WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. IT WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT AND MODELS
ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE FRONT. WINDS COULD GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE
WEAKENING BEHIND. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LESS WINDY AND COOLER AND STILL
DRY AS THE DRY SLOT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR THURS/FRI, EC BRINGS LOW FURTHER SOUTH MOVING NORTH OF I-80
THURSDAY NIGHT SUPPORTING SOME PRECIP CHANCES WHILE GFS REMAINS DRY.
HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE/GERLACH BOTH
DAYS AS A COMPROMISE AND ALSO KEPT TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION, IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOONS. WITH A DECENT THERMAL GRADIENT REMAINING OVER NEVADA.
WALLMANN
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. BREEZY W-NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVE
NEAR 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS INCLUDING TERMINALS FROM 21-04Z.
WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KREV 180420 CCA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
245 PM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING
MAINLY EAST OF RENO. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WEST. ANOTHER DEEP
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BRINGING WIND, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF RENO. A DECENT CAPPING
INVERSION HAS KEPT CONVECTION ON THE SHALLOW SIDE TODAY. DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR IS ALSO WORKING IT`S WAY INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET, THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE PAC
NW AND INTO NORTHERN CA/NV. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE
TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENTS WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH NORTH OF
PYRAMID LAKE. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS ON PYRAMID LAKE WILL BE NEAR
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH JUST SHY. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST WELL INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE COOL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR NORTHERN LASSEN,
NORTHERN WASHOE AND PERSHING COUNTIES. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THOSE AREAS, ALTHOUGH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED.
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION. CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEW NORMAL
THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S IN WESTERN
NEVADA AND LOW-MID 60S IN THE SIERRA. HOON
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS CA-NV ON
MONDAY.
BY MIDWEEK, A CHANGE TO THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN CANADA COAST TO THE NORTHWEST
US. THE MAIN EFFECTS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A SHARP INCREASE IN WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LOW. FOR NOW THE WIND FORECAST WILL INDICATE POSSIBLE
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, BUT SOME AREAS
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 COULD SEE EVEN STRONGER GUSTS. TEMPS
ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO TREND LOWER FOR THE SIERRA AND NORTHEAST
CA-NORTHWEST NV, BUT IN WEST CENTRAL NV BASIN FROM HIGHWAY 95
EASTWARD THE HIGHS SHOULD PUSH ABOVE 80 DEGREES. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPING ANY
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
FOR WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH TEMPS DROPPING BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES COMPARED TO TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE
DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LOW HUMIDITY
POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THROUGH MIDWEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT, SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE UP TO THIS POINT IS ABOVE AVERAGE. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, SCENARIOS BEGIN TO DIVERGE, SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
TO BELOW AVERAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
LATER NEXT WEEK, THE ECMWF PUSHES THE CENTER OF THE LOW FARTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CA AND BRINGS LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHEAST
CA-NORTHWEST NV BY THURSDAY. 700 MB TEMPS ALSO COOL OFF TO AROUND -8
C SO SNOW LEVELS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO NEAR 5000 FT NEAR THE OREGON
BORDER. IN CONTRAST, THE GFS KEEPS THE MOISTURE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
OREGON AND LIFTS THE COOLER AIR MASS NORTHWARD MUCH MORE QUICKLY.
700 MB TEMPS IN THE SAME AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH ON
THURSDAY ARE UP TO NEAR 0 C. THEN ON FRIDAY, THE ECMWF SLOWLY LIFTS
THE LOW NORTHWARD, WHILE THE GFS DROPS THE TROUGH SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST. PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH BOTH SCENARIOS IS SPARSE AT THIS TIME
WITH GREATER DIFFERENCES BECOMING MORE EVIDENT DURING THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND.
GIVEN THAT THE ECMWF HAS SEEMED TO BE A STEP AHEAD OF OTHER GUIDANCE
WITH RECENT COLD FRONT PASSAGES FROM THE NORTH, THE FORECASTED
TEMPS, PRECIP POTENTIAL AND WINDS FOR NEXT THURS-FRIDAY WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE COOLER AND WETTER SCENARIO PRESENTED BY THE ECMWF. AT
THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIP REACHING THE RENO OR TAHOE
REGIONS THRU NEXT FRIDAY IS LOW. MJD
&&
.AVIATION...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING BEFORE 04Z FOR AREAS EAST OF
KRNO, INCLUDING KNFL AND KLOL. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY,
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS NORTH OF RENO WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25KT. HOON
&&
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KREV 172355 CCA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
245 PM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING
MAINLY EAST OF RENO. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WEST. ANOTHER DEEP
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BRINGING WIND, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF RENO. A DECENT CAPPING
INVERSION HAS KEPT CONVECTION ON THE SHALLOW SIDE TODAY. DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR IS ALSO WORKING IT`S WAY INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET, THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE PAC
NW AND INTO NORTHERN CA/NV. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE
TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENTS WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH NORTH OF
PYRAMID LAKE. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS ON PYRAMID LAKE WILL BE NEAR
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH JUST SHY. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST WELL INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE COOL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR NORTHERN LASSEN,
NORTHERN WASHOE AND PERSHING COUNTIES. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THOSE AREAS, ALTHOUGH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED.
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION. CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEW NORMAL
THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S IN WESTERN
NEVADA AND LOW-MID 60S IN THE SIERRA. HOON
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS CA-NV ON
MONDAY.
BY MIDWEEK, A CHANGE TO THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN CANADA COAST TO THE NORTHWEST
US. THE MAIN EFFECTS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A SHARP INCREASE IN WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LOW. FOR NOW THE WIND FORECAST WILL INDICATE POSSIBLE
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, BUT SOME AREAS
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 COULD SEE EVEN STRONGER GUSTS. TEMPS
ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO TREND LOWER FOR THE SIERRA AND NORTHEAST
CA-NORTHWEST NV, BUT IN WEST CENTRAL NV BASIN FROM HIGHWAY 95
EASTWARD THE HIGHS SHOULD PUSH ABOVE 80 DEGREES. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPING ANY
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
FOR WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH TEMPS DROPPING BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES COMPARED TO TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE
DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LOW HUMIDITY
POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THROUGH MIDWEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT, SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE UP TO THIS POINT IS ABOVE AVERAGE. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, SCENARIOS BEGIN TO DIVERGE, SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
TO BELOW AVERAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
LATER NEXT WEEK, THE ECMWF PUSHES THE CENTER OF THE LOW FARTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CA AND BRINGS LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHEAST
CA-NORTHWEST NV BY THURSDAY. 700 MB TEMPS ALSO COOL OFF TO AROUND -8
C SO SNOW LEVELS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO NEAR 5000 FT NEAR THE OREGON
BORDER. IN CONTRAST, THE GFS KEEPS THE MOISTURE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
OREGON AND LIFTS THE COOLER AIR MASS NORTHWARD MUCH MORE QUICKLY.
700 MB TEMPS IN THE SAME AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH ON
THURSDAY ARE UP TO NEAR 0 C. THEN ON FRIDAY, THE ECMWF SLOWLY LIFTS
THE LOW NORTHWARD, WHILE THE GFS DROPS THE TROUGH SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST. PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH BOTH SCENARIOS IS SPARSE AT THIS TIME
WITH GREATER DIFFERENCES BECOMING MORE EVIDENT DURING THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND.
GIVEN THAT THE ECMWF HAS SEEMED TO BE A STEP AHEAD OF OTHER GUIDANCE
WITH RECENT COLD FRONT PASSAGES FROM THE NORTH, THE FORECASTED
TEMPS, PRECIP POTENTIAL AND WINDS FOR NEXT THURS-FRIDAY WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE COOLER AND WETTER SCENARIO PRESENTED BY THE ECMWF. AT
THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIP REACHING THE RENO OR TAHOE
REGIONS THRU NEXT FRIDAY IS LOW. MJD
&&
.AVIATION...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING BEFORE 04Z FOR AREAS EAST OF
KRNO, INCLUDING KNFL AND KLOL. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY,
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS NORTH OF RENO WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25KT. HOON
&&
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KREV 172345 CCA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
245 PM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING
MAINLY EAST OF RENO. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WEST. ANOTHER DEEP
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BRINGING WIND, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF RENO. A DECENT CAPPING
INVERSION HAS KEPT CONVECTION ON THE SHALLOW SIDE TODAY. DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR IS ALSO WORKING IT`S WAY INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET, THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE PAC
NW AND INTO NORTHERN CA/NV. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE
TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENTS WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH NORTH OF
PYRAMID LAKE. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS ON PYRAMID LAKE WILL BE NEAR
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH JUST SHY. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST WELL INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE COOL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR NORTHERN LASSEN,
NORTHERN WASHOE AND PERSHING COUNTIES. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THOSE AREAS, ALTHOUGH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED.
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION. CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEW NORMAL
THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S IN WESTERN
NEVADA AND LOW-MID 60S IN THE SIERRA. HOON
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS CA-NV ON
MONDAY.
BY MIDWEEK, A CHANGE TO THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN CANADA COAST TO THE NORTHWEST
US. THE MAIN EFFECTS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A SHARP INCREASE IN WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LOW. FOR NOW THE WIND FORECAST WILL INDICATE POSSIBLE
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, BUT SOME AREAS
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 COULD SEE EVEN STRONGER GUSTS. TEMPS
ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO TREND LOWER FOR THE SIERRA AND NORTHEAST
CA-NORTHWEST NV, BUT IN WEST CENTRAL NV BASIN FROM HIGHWAY 95
EASTWARD THE HIGHS SHOULD PUSH ABOVE 80 DEGREES. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPING ANY
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
FOR WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH TEMPS DROPPING BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES COMPARED TO TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE
DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LOW HUMIDITY
POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THROUGH MIDWEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT, SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE UP TO THIS POINT IS ABOVE AVERAGE. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, SCENARIOS BEGIN TO DIVERGE, SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
TO BELOW AVERAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
LATER NEXT WEEK, THE ECMWF PUSHES THE CENTER OF THE LOW FARTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CA AND BRINGS LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHEAST
CA-NORTHWEST NV BY THURSDAY. 700 MB TEMPS ALSO COOL OFF TO AROUND -8
C SO SNOW LEVELS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO NEAR 5000 FT NEAR THE OREGON
BORDER. IN CONTRAST, THE GFS KEEPS THE MOISTURE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
OREGON AND LIFTS THE COOLER AIR MASS NORTHWARD MUCH MORE QUICKLY.
700 MB TEMPS IN THE SAME AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH ON
THURSDAY ARE UP TO NEAR 0 C. THEN ON FRIDAY, THE ECMWF SLOWLY LIFTS
THE LOW NORTHWARD, WHILE THE GFS DROPS PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH BOTH
SCENARIOS IS SPARSE AT THIS TIME WITH GREATER DIFFERENCES BECOMING
MORE EVIDENT DURING THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
GIVEN THAT THE ECMWF HAS SEEMED TO BE A STEP AHEAD OF OTHER GUIDANCE
WITH RECENT COLD FRONT PASSAGES FROM THE NORTH, THE FORECASTED
TEMPS, PRECIP POTENTIAL AND WINDS FOR NEXT THURS-FRIDAY WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE COOLER AND WETTER SCENARIO PRESENTED BY THE ECMWF. AT
THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIP REACHING THE RENO OR TAHOE
REGIONS THRU NEXT FRIDAY IS LOW. MJD
&&
.AVIATION...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING BEFORE 04Z FOR AREAS EAST OF
KRNO, INCLUDING KNFL AND KLOL. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY,
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS NORTH OF RENO WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25KT. HOON
&&
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KREV 172221 CCA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
245 PM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING
MAINLY EAST OF RENO. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL THIS THE
WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WEST. ANOTHER DEEP
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BRINGING WIND, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF RENO. A DECENT CAPPING
INVERSION HAS KEPT CONVECTION ON THE SHALLOW SIDE TODAY. DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR IS ALSO WORKING IT`S WAY INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET, THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE PAC
NW AND INTO NORTHERN CA/NV. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE
TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENTS WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH NORTH OF
PYRAMID LAKE. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS ON PYRAMID LAKE WILL BE NEAR
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH JUST SHY. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST WELL INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE COOL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR NORTHERN
LASSEN, NORTHERN WASHOE AND PERSHING COUNTIES. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THOSE AREAS, ALTHOUGH VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION. CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEW NORMAL
THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S IN WESTERN
NEVADA AND LOW-MID 60S IN THE SIERRA. HOON
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS CA-NV ON
MONDAY.
BY MIDWEEK, A CHANGE TO THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN CANADA COAST TO THE NORTHWEST
US. THE MAIN EFFECTS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A SHARP INCREASE IN WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LOW. FOR NOW THE WIND FORECAST WILL INDICATE POSSIBLE
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, BUT SOME AREAS
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 COULD SEE EVEN STRONGER GUSTS. TEMPS
ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO TREND LOWER FOR THE SIERRA AND NORTHEAST
CA-NORTHWEST NV, BUT IN WEST CENTRAL NV BASIN FROM HIGHWAY 95
EASTWARD THE HIGHS SHOULD PUSH ABOVE 80 DEGREES. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPING ANY
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
FOR WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH TEMPS DROPPING BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES COMPARED TO TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE
DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LOW HUMIDITY
POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THROUGH MIDWEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT, SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE UP TO THIS POINT IS ABOVE AVERAGE. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, SCENARIOS BEGIN TO DIVERGE, SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
TO BELOW AVERAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
LATER NEXT WEEK, THE ECMWF PUSHES THE CENTER OF THE LOW FARTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CA AND BRINGS LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHEAST
CA-NORTHWEST NV BY THURSDAY. 700 MB TEMPS ALSO COOL OFF TO AROUND -8
C SO SNOW LEVELS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO NEAR 5000 FT NEAR THE OREGON
BORDER. IN CONTRAST, THE GFS KEEPS THE MOISTURE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
OREGON AND LIFTS THE COOLER AIR MASS NORTHWARD MUCH MORE QUICKLY.
700 MB TEMPS IN THE SAME AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH ON
THURSDAY ARE UP TO NEAR 0 C. THEN ON FRIDAY, THE ECMWF SLOWLY LIFTS
THE LOW NORTHWARD, WHILE THE GFS DROPS PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH BOTH
SCENARIOS IS SPARSE AT THIS TIME WITH GREATER DIFFERENCES BECOMING
MORE EVIDENT DURING THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
GIVEN THAT THE ECMWF HAS SEEMED TO BE A STEP AHEAD OF OTHER GUIDANCE
WITH RECENT COLD FRONT PASSAGES FROM THE NORTH, THE FORECASTED
TEMPS, PRECIP POTENTIAL AND WINDS FOR NEXT THURS-FRIDAY WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE COOLER AND WETTER SCENARIO PRESENTED BY THE ECMWF. AT
THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIP REACHING THE RENO OR TAHOE
REGIONS THRU NEXT FRIDAY IS LOW. MJD
&&
.AVIATION...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING BEFORE 04Z FOR AREAS EAST OF
KRNO, INCLUDING KNFL AND KLOL. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY,
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS NORTH OF RENO WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25KT. HOON
&&
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KREV 172148
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
245 PM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING
MAINLY EAST OF RENO. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL THIS THE
WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WEST. ANOTHER DEEP
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BRINGING WIND, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF RENO. A DECENT CAPPING
INVERSION HAS KEPT CONVECTION ON THE SHALLOW SIDE TODAY. DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR IS ALSO WORKING IT`S WAY INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER, THEN CHANCES DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT.
AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE PAC
NW AND INTO NORTHERN CA/NV. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE
TEMP/PRESSURE GRADIENTS WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH NORTH OF
PYRAMID LAKE. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS ON PYRAMID LAKE WILL BE NEAR
LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH JUST SHY. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST WELL INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE COOL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR NORTHERN
LASSEN, NORTHERN WASHOE AND PERSHING COUNTIES. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THOSE AREAS, ALTHOUGH VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION. CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEW NORMAL
THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S IN WESTERN
NEVADA AND LOW-MID 60S IN THE SIERRA. HOON
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS CA-NV ON
MONDAY.
BY MIDWEEK, A CHANGE TO THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN CANADA COAST TO THE NORTHWEST
US. THE MAIN EFFECTS ON TUESDAY WILL BE A SHARP INCREASE IN WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LOW. FOR NOW THE WIND FORECAST WILL INDICATE POSSIBLE
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, BUT SOME AREAS
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 COULD SEE EVEN STRONGER GUSTS. TEMPS
ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO TREND LOWER FOR THE SIERRA AND NORTHEAST
CA-NORTHWEST NV, BUT IN WEST CENTRAL NV BASIN FROM HIGHWAY 95
EASTWARD THE HIGHS SHOULD PUSH ABOVE 80 DEGREES. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPING ANY
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
FOR WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH TEMPS DROPPING BY
10 TO 15 DEGREES COMPARED TO TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE
DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LOW HUMIDITY
POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THROUGH MIDWEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT, SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE UP TO THIS POINT IS ABOVE AVERAGE. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, SCENARIOS BEGIN TO DIVERGE, SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
TO BELOW AVERAGE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
LATER NEXT WEEK, THE ECMWF PUSHES THE CENTER OF THE LOW FARTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CA AND BRINGS LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHEAST
CA-NORTHWEST NV BY THURSDAY. 700 MB TEMPS ALSO COOL OFF TO AROUND -8
C SO SNOW LEVELS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO NEAR 5000 FT NEAR THE OREGON
BORDER. IN CONTRAST, THE GFS KEEPS THE MOISTURE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
OREGON AND LIFTS THE COOLER AIR MASS NORTHWARD MUCH MORE QUICKLY.
700 MB TEMPS IN THE SAME AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH ON
THURSDAY ARE UP TO NEAR 0 C. THEN ON FRIDAY, THE ECMWF SLOWLY LIFTS
THE LOW NORTHWARD, WHILE THE GFS DROPS PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH BOTH
SCENARIOS IS SPARSE AT THIS TIME WITH GREATER DIFFERENCES BECOMING
MORE EVIDENT DURING THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
GIVEN THAT THE ECMWF HAS SEEMED TO BE A STEP AHEAD OF OTHER GUIDANCE
WITH RECENT COLD FRONT PASSAGES FROM THE NORTH, THE FORECASTED
TEMPS, PRECIP POTENTIAL AND WINDS FOR NEXT THURS-FRIDAY WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE COOLER AND WETTER SCENARIO PRESENTED BY THE ECMWF. AT
THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIP REACHING THE RENO OR TAHOE
REGIONS THRU NEXT FRIDAY IS LOW. MJD
&&
.AVIATION...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING BEFORE 04Z FOR AREAS EAST OF
KRNO, INCLUDING KNFL AND KLOL. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY,
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS NORTH OF RENO WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25KT. HOON
&&
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KREV 171254 AAA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
554 AM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE OVER LASSEN COUNTY THIS
MORNING. BAND OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY AS
IT SLOWLY WEAKENS. ONLY EXPECT SOME SCT SHOWERS THERE LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, FCST ON TRACK AND NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED. WALLMANN
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 208 AM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WEST.
THIS IS SHORT-LIVED AND ANOTHER DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS
INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WIND,
COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM...
TROUGH AXIS IS SLIDING EASTWARD, CENTERING OVER THE SIERRA EARLY
THIS MORNING. VIGOROUS JET CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, WHICH ENHANCED CONVECTION IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF LASSEN AND PLUMAS
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW WILL
INCREASE INSTABILITY AND THE JET WILL ACT AS A SOURCE OF LIFT TO
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTING
OVER EASTERN NEVADA, FEEL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BASED MORE ON
SURFACE INSTABILITY AND AM EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, ENDING CONVECTION IN THE SIERRA AND EXTREME WESTERN
NEVADA. ELSEWHERE, IT WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
A DRYING TREND WITH WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL IS ON TAP FOR THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WEST. A SHORTWAVE ON
SATURDAY MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE, BRINGING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHWEST NEVADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MAINLY JUST EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80, BUT WOULDN`T COUNT OUT
A FEW SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
LASSEN AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTIES ON SATURDAY AS WELL. AT THIS
POINT, HOWEVER, WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST AS IT APPEARS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. DF
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAIN PLAYER IN THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE PACNW MIDWEEK. MILD TEMPS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL COOL OFF TO
BELOW NORMAL BY WED AND THU. MODELS ARE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN AND TRENDS SO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THERE, BUT DIFFER ON THE
AMOUNT OF COOLING AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES FOR WED/THU.
FOR MON, QUIET AND DRY UNDER UPPER RIDGE BUT AS THE LOW SETTLES OVER
THE PACNW ON TUESDAY, IT WILL BE WINDY. STRONG THERMAL/PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ALONG THE FRONT SUPPORT THE WINDS EVEN THOUGH WINDS ALOFT
ARE NOT ALL THAT STRONG. DESPITE COOLING ALOFT, TEMPS WILL REMAIN
MILD DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH THE WINDS. THIS FRONT IS A DRY FRONT SO
EXPECT NO PRECIP AHEAD OF OR BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOR WED/THURS, WENT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WITH NOT MUCH
AGREEMENT ON THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN THE GFS/EC. THE EC DIGS
THE LOW DEEPER BY THURSDAY AND ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER RENO/TAHOE. THE
GFS KEEPS THE LOW OVER WASHINGTON AND IS NOT AS COOL AS A RESULT.
THE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS IS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS,
BUT AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DID I KEPT TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
ENSEMBLES ARE GENERALLY SPLIT BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS SO UNTIL
THEY COME MORE IN LINE, SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE SEEMS PRUDENT FOR
NOW. WALLMANN
AVIATION...
SOME -SHRA IN THE SIERRA/WRN NV NORTH OF I-80 UNTIL 16Z THIS
MORNING. STILL GENERALLY VFR, BUT SOME LCL MVFR CIGS PSBL IN THE
SIERRA WEST OF KSVE. EXPECT SCT -SHRA ACROSS THE SIERRA NV WITH
ISOLD TSRA MIXED IN AS WELL. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE
NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 THIS AFTERNOON.
AS FAR AS WINDS, LIGHT UNTIL AROUND 19Z THEN NW 10-15 KTS UNTIL 04Z
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EAST OF KRNO. WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KREV 170908
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
208 AM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WEST.
THIS IS SHORT-LIVED AND ANOTHER DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS
INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WIND,
COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
TROUGH AXIS IS SLIDING EASTWARD, CENTERING OVER THE SIERRA EARLY
THIS MORNING. VIGOROUS JET CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, WHICH ENHANCED CONVECTION IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF LASSEN AND PLUMAS
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW WILL
INCREASE INSTABILITY AND THE JET WILL ACT AS A SOURCE OF LIFT TO
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTING
OVER EASTERN NEVADA, FEEL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BASED MORE ON
SURFACE INSTABILITY AND AM EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, ENDING CONVECTION IN THE SIERRA AND EXTREME WESTERN
NEVADA. ELSEWHERE, IT WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
A DRYING TREND WITH WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL IS ON TAP FOR THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WEST. A SHORTWAVE ON
SATURDAY MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE, BRINGING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHWEST NEVADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MAINLY JUST EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80, BUT WOULDN`T COUNT OUT
A FEW SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
LASSEN AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTIES ON SATURDAY AS WELL. AT THIS
POINT, HOWEVER, WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY FORECAST AS IT APPEARS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER LIFT REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. DF
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MAIN PLAYER IN THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE PACNW MIDWEEK. MILD TEMPS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL COOL OFF TO
BELOW NORMAL BY WED AND THU. MODELS ARE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN AND TRENDS SO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THERE, BUT DIFFER ON THE
AMOUNT OF COOLING AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES FOR WED/THU.
FOR MON, QUIET AND DRY UNDER UPPER RIDGE BUT AS THE LOW SETTLES OVER
THE PACNW ON TUESDAY, IT WILL BE WINDY. STRONG THERMAL/PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ALONG THE FRONT SUPPORT THE WINDS EVEN THOUGH WINDS ALOFT
ARE NOT ALL THAT STRONG. DESPITE COOLING ALOFT, TEMPS WILL REMAIN
MILD DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH THE WINDS. THIS FRONT IS A DRY FRONT SO
EXPECT NO PRECIP AHEAD OF OR BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOR WED/THURS, WENT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WITH NOT MUCH
AGREEMENT ON THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN THE GFS/EC. THE EC DIGS
THE LOW DEEPER BY THURSDAY AND ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER RENO/TAHOE. THE
GFS KEEPS THE LOW OVER WASHINGTON AND IS NOT AS COOL AS A RESULT.
THE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS IS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS,
BUT AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DID I KEPT TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL.
ENSEMBLES ARE GENERALLY SPLIT BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS SO UNTIL
THEY COME MORE IN LINE, SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE SEEMS PRUDENT FOR
NOW. WALLMANN
&&
.AVIATION...
SOME -SHRA IN THE SIERRA/WRN NV NORTH OF I-80 UNTIL 16Z THIS
MORNING. STILL GENERALLY VFR, BUT SOME LCL MVFR CIGS PSBL IN THE
SIERRA WEST OF KSVE. EXPECT SCT -SHRA ACROSS THE SIERRA NV WITH
ISOLD TSRA MIXED IN AS WELL. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE
NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 THIS AFTERNOON.
AS FAR AS WINDS, LIGHT UNTIL AROUND 19Z THEN NW 10-15 KTS UNTIL 04Z
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EAST OF KRNO. WALLMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KREV 162149
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
249 PM PDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
MOST OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR THE
WEST COAST HAS OCCURRED IN NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV AND THE
CALIFORNIA SIDE OF THE TAHOE BASIN, WITH TOTAL RAINFALL RANGING
FROM 0.20 TO 0.50 INCH SO FAR. RADAR ECHOES EAST OF RENO APPEAR TO
BE MAINLY VIRGA AND SPRINKLES AS MEASURABLE PRECIP HAS NOT BEEN
REPORTED FROM FERNLEY TO YERINGTON, WITH HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY
BETWEEN 25 AND 45 PERCENT.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP TONIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE REMNANTS FROM THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT IS CURRENTLY FORMING IN NORTH CENTRAL CA.
BANDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT IN
NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF A BAND SETS UP AND REMAINS IN PLACE FOR A FEW
HOURS. ELSEWHERE, ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WORKS INTO AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50.
AS THE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS NV ON FRIDAY, SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
FORCING IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NV, WHILE MORE
STABLE AIR MASS SPREADS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NV BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH OR EXIT THE WEST
CENTRAL NV BASIN DURING THE EVENING.
FOR THIS WEEKEND, A WEAK SHORTWAVE BRUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
US WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ON
SATURDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE OREGON
BORDER, BUT A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SURPRISE VALLEY AND EXTREME NORTHWEST NV. AT THIS TIME THE
POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LOW, SO SHOWERS HAVE NOT BEEN
ADDED. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE INCREASED WINDS
ON SATURDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH MAINLY FROM RENO NORTHWARD.
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS OF LOWER TO MID 70S IN WESTERN NV ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY, NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE MAX TEMPS BY A FEW
DEGREES AND BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MJD
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LITTLE OR NO CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES UNDER A TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE MONDAY WILL GIVE
WAY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MID TO
LATE WEEK AS A TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE MAIN FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
MODELS BEGIN TO HAVE TROUBLE DISCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL DROP AND DETAILS OF ANY IMPULSES MOVING
AROUND THE LOW. THIS WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES, SNOW LEVELS, AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, IT LOOKS BELOW AVERAGE IN MOST PROGS BY WEDNESDAY
SO I AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IT THAT. HOWEVER, SOME PROGS WOULD HAVE US
WELL (10-15 DEGREES) BELOW AVERAGE SO I HAVE TRIED TO TAKE A MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD APPROACH UNTIL MORE DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE. SNOW LEVEL
WISE, SIERRA PASSES ESPECIALLY ABOVE 8000-8500 FEET HAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD IF THE UPPER LOW
SETTLES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. STILL, IT IS ONLY A SMALL CHANCE AS THIS
TIME OF YEAR PRECIPITATION WOULD HAVE TO BE PERSISTENT/HEAVIER AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO POSE ANY REAL THREAT TO ROAD SURFACES.
ALSO, MOST MODELS DEPICT ONLY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE MAIN PRECIP AREA
REMAINING NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SNYDER
&&
.AVIATION...
WIND-WISE FOR VALLEYS OF WESTERN NEVADA/EASTERN CALIFORNIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS (LOCALLY 30) CAN BE
EXPECTED. AFTER THIS EVENING, WIND WILL DIMINISH WITH LIGHTER WINDS
ON FRIDAY. FOR HIGHER RIDGES, GUSTS 40-50 KTS TO AS HIGH AS 55 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BRINGING TURBULENCE OVER AND DOWNWIND OF
RANGES.
CIG/VIS WISE TONIGHT, LITTLE OR NO RESTRICTION IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THE SIERRA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA WHERE RAIN AND HIGHEST
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL OBSCURE TERRAIN AND BRING PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/HIGH IFR VISIBILITIES. ON FRIDAY, THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS (5%) IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH AND EAST
OF KRNO. SNYDER
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
000
FXUS65 KREV 161853 AAA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1153 AM PDT THU MAY 16 2013
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE MADE TO FORECAST TO CLEAN UP SOME MORNING WORDING AND
CHANGE PRECIP WORDING TO SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS. MAIN CHANGE WAS
REDUCING SHOWER COVERAGE FROM THE RENO-CARSON VALLEY AREAS SOUTHWARD
TO MINERAL AND MONO COUNTIES, AND RAISING POPS FROM NORTHERN
LASSEN TO NORTHWEST NV WHERE RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING ALL MORNING
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ALL OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
FAVORS A PRECIPITATION MAXIMUM NEAR LASSEN NATIONAL PARK WITH
BANDS OF MOISTURE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN LASSEN COUNTY
OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN CA. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK TO THE MODELS MAY BE OVERESTIMATING PRECIP AMOUNTS, THE
PRESENCE OF THIS SIGNATURE ACROSS SO MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE DATA
PROVIDES INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE
NIGHT MAINLY FROM SUSANVILLE NORTHWARD. MJD
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING AREAS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO
THE SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST
FRIDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SLOWLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER COLD LOW WILL BRING WIND
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 AM PDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SHORT TERM...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS INLAND TODAY TAPPING INTO DEEP
MOISTURE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW WILL REACH NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA/FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA
EARLY THIS MORNING, PUSHING ACROSS RENO-CARSON-TAHOE DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE. RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT AND MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE THERE IS ENHANCEMENT
FROM THE JET. THE JET WILL ALSO COMBINE WITH AN EMBEDDED PV WAVE
BRINGING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS FROM SUSANVILLE-PYRAMID
LAKE NORTHWARD. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL MAINLY BE UNDER A
QUARTER INCH, BUT PORTIONS OF LASSEN AND PLUMAS COUNTIES AS WELL
AS THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND FAR NORTHWEST NV MAY SEE CLOSER TO A
HALF INCH. SNOW LEVELS TODAY WILL FALL BETWEEN 7500 TO 8500 FEET
MSL, WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ABOVE
8000 FEET. THIS INCLUDES HIGHER SIERRA PASSES SUCH AS CALIFORNIA
HIGHWAYS 4, 88, 89, AND 108 AND NEVADA HIGHWAY 431. THIS FRONT
WILL ALSO USHER IN A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR MASS WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES DROPPING 15 TO 20 DEGREES TODAY AS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY.
BY THIS EVENING, THE FRONT AND JET MOVE EASTWARD, WITH
PRECIPITATION DECREASING IN COVERAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA TONIGHT CAUSING SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE COOLING ALOFT FROM THE CORE OF THE LOW
WILL ALSO BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY. THERE IS LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING, ESPECIALLY AS MODELS
HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING IN THE NEXT JET SEGMENT REACHING THE SIERRA
TO LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE MAINLY DEPENDENT ON SURFACE INSTABILITY AND THIS MAY BE LIMITED
BY THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS. HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE SAME,
BUT LIMITED THUNDERSTORMS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ON FRIDAY.
A DRYING AND SLOW WARMING TREND IS ON TRACK FOR THE WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL ON SATURDAY. DF
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD TROUGH FOR
THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH DECENT CONTINUITY OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH REGARD TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. THIS
FITS WILL THE FORECAST STRONG NEGATIVE PNA INDEX CENTERED AROUND MAY
18-20TH AND AN OVERALL TREND OF DEEPER 500MB HEIGHTS OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. IN RESPONSE TO A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE ALEUTIANS TO THE EAST PACIFIC. EVENTUAL CENTER OF ANOMALY
REMAINS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF 40N WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A COOLER BUT
BREEZY AND MOSTLY DRY PATTERN. HOWEVER UPPER LOW WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 BY LATE IN
PERIOD.
FLAT RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY. AS TROUGH DROPS INTO PLACE ON TUE-WED, WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A VERY DRY AIRMASS,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80. SOME MOISTENING WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AS CENTER OF UPPER LOW GETS CLOSER. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO
COOL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THE PRELIMINARY DAY 8 WITH BELOW
NORMAL READINGS BECOMING LIKELY. IN FACT, SOME SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE
COLD AND WOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT OUR TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE
TOO WARM. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, SNOW LEVELS COULD
GET QUITE LOW ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SHOWERS WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOHMANN
AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OREGON COAST WILL PUSH INTO CALIFORNIA TODAY.
THE SYSTEM HAS A DEEP MOISTURE FEED WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN (AND SNOW ABOVE 7500 FEET) TO THE NORTHERN
SIERRA/NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL MEAN SIGNIFICANT TERRAIN OBSCURATION AND
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE SIERRA AND OUT INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE TO WINNEMUCCA LINE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES INLAND.
SIERRA TAF SITES KTRK/KTVL MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH RESTRICTIONS LESS LIKELY AT
KMMH AND WESTERN NV TAF SITS OF KRNO/KCXP. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GUST 15-20KT WITH RIDGE WINDS DOWN A BIT TODAY, GENERALLY
30-40KT. HOHMANN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
|
