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000
FXUS65 KREV 010425 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
825 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NV AND THE SIERRA, MAINLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR AND DOWN INTO ALPINE AND NORTHERN
MONO COUNTIES. OVERALL WARMING WAS OCCURRING IN CLOUD TOPS BASED ON
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THUS EXPECT SNOWFALL TO GENERALLY
PRODUCE ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. THEREFORE THE
ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME FOR THE TAHOE BASIN. STILL,
A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK INCH OR TWO
ALONG THE CARSON RANGE AND IN THE SIERRA SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, ROADS MAY REMAIN SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.
MOTORISTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE WHERE WATER
REFREEZES ON AREA ROADWAYS. SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING ANOTHER BAND
OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL RUN. THIS
BAND WOULD BE FURTHER SOUTH AND AFFECT THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR
THROUGH MONO COUNTY. LIKE TODAYS BAND, IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
THE LOCATION. SO INTERESTS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA FROM
MARKLEEVILLE TO MAMMOTH SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER AND ROAD CONDITIONS
CLOSELY AS ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. WE HAVE ALSO REDUCED
THE PATCHY FREEZING FOG COVERAGE DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND
DECENT NORTHERLY GRADIENT. HOHMANN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK AND HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS.
A WEAKER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS, LOCALLY HEAVY, WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA. DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA THIS EVENING WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY. A WEAKER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW
MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED
LATER NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE RENO-TAHOE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LOW SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
DEFORMATION NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT
TO KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT, NORTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW. WHILE SNOW CONTINUES TO ACCUMULATE, IT IS NOT DOING
SO ON THE ROADS DUE TO THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE AT LEAST AROUND RENO.
STILL MANY ROAD ISSUES IN THE SIERRA. LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS HAVE
OCCURRED WITH CLOSE TO 2 FEET IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS FOR THE NORTH
SHORT OF TAHOE AND 12+ INCHES NORTH OF RENO/SPARKS.

STILL EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH 6 PM. IT HAS
BEEN SLOWER TO DIMINISH THAN MODELS INDICATE, ESPECIALLY THE HRRR,
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA. SOME LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY INTO THE EVENING. WILL EXTEND THE TAHOE ADVISORY THROUGH 8
PM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AND FOR
THE SLICK ROADS.

FREEZING FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH
IN THE VALLEYS ALONG HIGHWAY 50 AND I-80. PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SNOW/RAIN THAT FELL WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE FOG IF WE GET
ENOUGH CLEARING.

AS THE SHOWERS WIND DOWN AROUND THE 50/80 CORRIDORS, IT SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES. ALREADY SEEING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THERE. EXPECT THESE TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS THE WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES IN. HOWEVER,
EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY UP TO 2
INCHES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 395 CLOSE THE THE
SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY. THERE, THE NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL
CREATE SOME ENHANCEMENT WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-10 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD SUNDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. THE
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VERY WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL
MODELS SHOWING IT MOVING FURTHER WEST ALONG THE COAST. WITH SUCH A
SMALL SYSTEM, IT APPEARS SCT SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST IN THE SIERRA
AND PRETTY MUCH DRY EAST OF HIGHWAY 395. THE MAIN THING IT WILL DO
IS REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR NOW OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. WALLMANN

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR PARTS OF
MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, BUT OVERALL A DRY PATTERN WILL RETURN
TO THE REGION AS TROUGH DEPARTS THE GREAT BASIN. NORTH FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPS COOL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER
40S FOR WESTERN NV AND NEAR 40 IN THE TAHOE BASIN.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WITH LIGHT WINDS. DAYTIME TEMPS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER-MID 50S
WEDNESDAY, THEN JUMP TO NEAR 60 DEGREES THURSDAY, THEN PUSH A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE 60 DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MJD

AVIATION...
WRAP AROUND SNOW BAND HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN AND
PARTS OF WESTERN NV. IFR CIGS/VIS FOR KTVL-KTRK WITH MVFR-IFR
CONDS FOR KRNO-KCXP LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 03Z. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE ON RUNWAYS AFT 00Z AT
KTRK/KTVL AFTER THE SNOW ENDS THIS EVENING, VIS WILL IMPROVE
ALTHOUGH SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUD DECK ARE EXPECTED.
IF CLEARING OCCURS LATE TONIGHT, THEN FZFG POTENTIAL WOULD
INCREASE FOR ALL TERMINALS IN THE RENO-CARSON-TAHOE REGION THRU
SUN AM. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, OVERALL CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE ALTHOUGH
LINGERING -SHSN MAY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VIS AT TIMES.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, WORSENING CIGS/VIS ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH. THE KMMH
TERMINAL MAY RECEIVE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH -SHSN POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO MOST
OF SUNDAY PRODUCING MVFR-IFR CONDS AT TIMES. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 010425 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
825 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NV AND THE SIERRA, MAINLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR AND DOWN INTO ALPINE AND NORTHERN
MONO COUNTIES. OVERALL WARMING WAS OCCURRING IN CLOUD TOPS BASED ON
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THUS EXPECT SNOWFALL TO GENERALLY
PRODUCE ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. THEREFORE THE
ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME FOR THE TAHOE BASIN. STILL,
A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK INCH OR TWO
ALONG THE CARSON RANGE AND IN THE SIERRA SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, ROADS MAY REMAIN SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.
MOTORISTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE WHERE WATER
REFREEZES ON AREA ROADWAYS. SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING ANOTHER BAND
OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL RUN. THIS
BAND WOULD BE FURTHER SOUTH AND AFFECT THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR
THROUGH MONO COUNTY. LIKE TODAYS BAND, IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
THE LOCATION. SO INTERESTS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA FROM
MARKLEEVILLE TO MAMMOTH SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER AND ROAD CONDITIONS
CLOSELY AS ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. WE HAVE ALSO REDUCED
THE PATCHY FREEZING FOG COVERAGE DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND
DECENT NORTHERLY GRADIENT. HOHMANN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK AND HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS.
A WEAKER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS, LOCALLY HEAVY, WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA. DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA THIS EVENING WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY. A WEAKER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW
MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED
LATER NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE RENO-TAHOE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LOW SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
DEFORMATION NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT
TO KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT, NORTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW. WHILE SNOW CONTINUES TO ACCUMULATE, IT IS NOT DOING
SO ON THE ROADS DUE TO THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE AT LEAST AROUND RENO.
STILL MANY ROAD ISSUES IN THE SIERRA. LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS HAVE
OCCURRED WITH CLOSE TO 2 FEET IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS FOR THE NORTH
SHORT OF TAHOE AND 12+ INCHES NORTH OF RENO/SPARKS.

STILL EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH 6 PM. IT HAS
BEEN SLOWER TO DIMINISH THAN MODELS INDICATE, ESPECIALLY THE HRRR,
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA. SOME LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY INTO THE EVENING. WILL EXTEND THE TAHOE ADVISORY THROUGH 8
PM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AND FOR
THE SLICK ROADS.

FREEZING FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH
IN THE VALLEYS ALONG HIGHWAY 50 AND I-80. PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SNOW/RAIN THAT FELL WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE FOG IF WE GET
ENOUGH CLEARING.

AS THE SHOWERS WIND DOWN AROUND THE 50/80 CORRIDORS, IT SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES. ALREADY SEEING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THERE. EXPECT THESE TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS THE WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES IN. HOWEVER,
EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY UP TO 2
INCHES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 395 CLOSE THE THE
SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY. THERE, THE NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL
CREATE SOME ENHANCEMENT WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-10 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD SUNDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. THE
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VERY WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL
MODELS SHOWING IT MOVING FURTHER WEST ALONG THE COAST. WITH SUCH A
SMALL SYSTEM, IT APPEARS SCT SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST IN THE SIERRA
AND PRETTY MUCH DRY EAST OF HIGHWAY 395. THE MAIN THING IT WILL DO
IS REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR NOW OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. WALLMANN

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR PARTS OF
MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, BUT OVERALL A DRY PATTERN WILL RETURN
TO THE REGION AS TROUGH DEPARTS THE GREAT BASIN. NORTH FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPS COOL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER
40S FOR WESTERN NV AND NEAR 40 IN THE TAHOE BASIN.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WITH LIGHT WINDS. DAYTIME TEMPS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER-MID 50S
WEDNESDAY, THEN JUMP TO NEAR 60 DEGREES THURSDAY, THEN PUSH A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE 60 DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MJD

AVIATION...
WRAP AROUND SNOW BAND HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN AND
PARTS OF WESTERN NV. IFR CIGS/VIS FOR KTVL-KTRK WITH MVFR-IFR
CONDS FOR KRNO-KCXP LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 03Z. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE ON RUNWAYS AFT 00Z AT
KTRK/KTVL AFTER THE SNOW ENDS THIS EVENING, VIS WILL IMPROVE
ALTHOUGH SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUD DECK ARE EXPECTED.
IF CLEARING OCCURS LATE TONIGHT, THEN FZFG POTENTIAL WOULD
INCREASE FOR ALL TERMINALS IN THE RENO-CARSON-TAHOE REGION THRU
SUN AM. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, OVERALL CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE ALTHOUGH
LINGERING -SHSN MAY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VIS AT TIMES.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, WORSENING CIGS/VIS ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH. THE KMMH
TERMINAL MAY RECEIVE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH -SHSN POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO MOST
OF SUNDAY PRODUCING MVFR-IFR CONDS AT TIMES. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 282140
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
140 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS, LOCALLY HEAVY, WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA. DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA THIS EVENING WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY. A WEAKER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW
MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED
LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE RENO-TAHOE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LOW SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
DEFORMATION NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT
TO KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT, NORTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW. WHILE SNOW CONTINUES TO ACCUMULATE, IT IS NOT DOING
SO ON THE ROADS DUE TO THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE AT LEAST AROUND RENO.
STILL MANY ROAD ISSUES IN THE SIERRA. LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS HAVE
OCCURRED WITH CLOSE TO 2 FEET IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS FOR THE NORTH
SHORT OF TAHOE AND 12+ INCHES NORTH OF RENO/SPARKS.

STILL EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH 6 PM. IT HAS
BEEN SLOWER TO DIMINISH THAN MODELS INDICATE, ESPECIALLY THE HRRR,
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA. SOME LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY INTO THE EVENING. WILL EXTEND THE TAHOE ADVISORY THROUGH 8
PM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AND FOR
THE SLICK ROADS.

FREEZING FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH
IN THE VALLEYS ALONG HIGHWAY 50 AND I-80. PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SNOW/RAIN THAT FELL WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE FOG IF WE GET
ENOUGH CLEARING.

AS THE SHOWERS WIND DOWN AROUND THE 50/80 CORRIDORS, IT SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES. ALREADY SEEING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THERE. EXPECT THESE TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS THE WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES IN. HOWEVER,
EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY UP TO 2
INCHES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 395 CLOSE THE THE
SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY. THERE, THE NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL
CREATE SOME ENHANCEMENT WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-10 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD SUNDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. THE
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VERY WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL
MODELS SHOWING IT MOVING FURTHER WEST ALONG THE COAST. WITH SUCH A
SMALL SYSTEM, IT APPEARS SCT SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST IN THE SIERRA
AND PRETTY MUCH DRY EAST OF HIGHWAY 395. THE MAIN THING IT WILL DO
IS REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR NOW OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR PARTS OF
MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, BUT OVERALL A DRY PATTERN WILL RETURN
TO THE REGION AS TROUGH DEPARTS THE GREAT BASIN. NORTH FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPS COOL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER
40S FOR WESTERN NV AND NEAR 40 IN THE TAHOE BASIN.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WITH LIGHT WINDS. DAYTIME TEMPS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER-MID 50S
WEDNESDAY, THEN JUMP TO NEAR 60 DEGREES THURSDAY, THEN PUSH A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE 60 DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
WRAP AROUND SNOW BAND HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN AND
PARTS OF WESTERN NV. IFR CIGS/VIS FOR KTVL-KTRK WITH MVFR-IFR
CONDS FOR KRNO-KCXP LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 03Z. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE ON RUNWAYS AFT 00Z AT
KTRK/KTVL AFTER THE SNOW ENDS THIS EVENING, VIS WILL IMPROVE
ALTHOUGH SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUD DECK ARE EXPECTED.
IF CLEARING OCCURS LATE TONIGHT, THEN FZFG POTENTIAL WOULD
INCREASE FOR ALL TERMINALS IN THE RENO-CARSON-TAHOE REGION THRU
SUN AM. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, OVERALL CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE ALTHOUGH
LINGERING -SHSN MAY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VIS AT TIMES.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, WORSENING CIGS/VIS ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH. THE KMMH
TERMINAL MAY RECEIVE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH -SHSN POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO MOST
OF SUNDAY PRODUCING MVFR-IFR CONDS AT TIMES. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 282140
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
140 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS, LOCALLY HEAVY, WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA. DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA THIS EVENING WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY. A WEAKER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW
MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED
LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE RENO-TAHOE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LOW SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
DEFORMATION NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT
TO KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT, NORTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW. WHILE SNOW CONTINUES TO ACCUMULATE, IT IS NOT DOING
SO ON THE ROADS DUE TO THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE AT LEAST AROUND RENO.
STILL MANY ROAD ISSUES IN THE SIERRA. LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS HAVE
OCCURRED WITH CLOSE TO 2 FEET IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS FOR THE NORTH
SHORT OF TAHOE AND 12+ INCHES NORTH OF RENO/SPARKS.

STILL EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH 6 PM. IT HAS
BEEN SLOWER TO DIMINISH THAN MODELS INDICATE, ESPECIALLY THE HRRR,
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA. SOME LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY INTO THE EVENING. WILL EXTEND THE TAHOE ADVISORY THROUGH 8
PM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AND FOR
THE SLICK ROADS.

FREEZING FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH
IN THE VALLEYS ALONG HIGHWAY 50 AND I-80. PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SNOW/RAIN THAT FELL WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE FOG IF WE GET
ENOUGH CLEARING.

AS THE SHOWERS WIND DOWN AROUND THE 50/80 CORRIDORS, IT SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES. ALREADY SEEING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THERE. EXPECT THESE TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS THE WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES IN. HOWEVER,
EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY UP TO 2
INCHES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 395 CLOSE THE THE
SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY. THERE, THE NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL
CREATE SOME ENHANCEMENT WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-10 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD SUNDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. THE
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VERY WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL
MODELS SHOWING IT MOVING FURTHER WEST ALONG THE COAST. WITH SUCH A
SMALL SYSTEM, IT APPEARS SCT SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST IN THE SIERRA
AND PRETTY MUCH DRY EAST OF HIGHWAY 395. THE MAIN THING IT WILL DO
IS REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR NOW OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR PARTS OF
MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, BUT OVERALL A DRY PATTERN WILL RETURN
TO THE REGION AS TROUGH DEPARTS THE GREAT BASIN. NORTH FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPS COOL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER
40S FOR WESTERN NV AND NEAR 40 IN THE TAHOE BASIN.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WITH LIGHT WINDS. DAYTIME TEMPS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER-MID 50S
WEDNESDAY, THEN JUMP TO NEAR 60 DEGREES THURSDAY, THEN PUSH A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE 60 DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
WRAP AROUND SNOW BAND HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN AND
PARTS OF WESTERN NV. IFR CIGS/VIS FOR KTVL-KTRK WITH MVFR-IFR
CONDS FOR KRNO-KCXP LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 03Z. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE ON RUNWAYS AFT 00Z AT
KTRK/KTVL AFTER THE SNOW ENDS THIS EVENING, VIS WILL IMPROVE
ALTHOUGH SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUD DECK ARE EXPECTED.
IF CLEARING OCCURS LATE TONIGHT, THEN FZFG POTENTIAL WOULD
INCREASE FOR ALL TERMINALS IN THE RENO-CARSON-TAHOE REGION THRU
SUN AM. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, OVERALL CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE ALTHOUGH
LINGERING -SHSN MAY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VIS AT TIMES.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, WORSENING CIGS/VIS ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH. THE KMMH
TERMINAL MAY RECEIVE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH -SHSN POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO MOST
OF SUNDAY PRODUCING MVFR-IFR CONDS AT TIMES. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 281735 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
935 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SNOW BAND ENDED UP DEVELOPING FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED, AND
JUST SHOWS THE DIFFICULT NATURE OF SLIDER SYSTEMS. AS FOR THIS
MORNING, UPDATING TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
SIERRA FRONT. WHILE THE BAND OF SNOW NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80
CONTINUES, THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE OF LATE FEBRUARY IS HELPING TO
MELT THE SNOW ON ROADS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MANY ROAD TEMPS
ARE IN THE MID 30S AND WEBCAMS SHOWING ROADS JUST WET. WHILE THERE
COULD BE A FEW LOCALIZED SLUSHY SPOTS THE NEXT HOUR, EXPECT THESE
TO DIMINISH. THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS THE BAND DISSIPATING IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS, THIS APPEARS TOO FAST, BUT
STILL EXPECT A SLOW WEAKENING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TAHOE, ROADS ARE STILL AN ISSUE THERE AROUND THE NORTH
SHORE AND I-80 SO THE ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD. ADDTIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE BAND WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO 4". WALLMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ARE LIKELY IN
THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS AND MORE LOCALIZED TRAVEL ISSUES IN
WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
THE CORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO SETTLE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH A DEFORMATION AREA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 4500 FEET WITH SNOW BEGINNING
TO MIX IN WITH RAIN AROUND DOWNTOWN RENO. NUMEROUS CHAIN CONTROLS
EXTEND ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN INCLUDING STRETCHES OF INTERSTATE 80
THROUGH THE SIERRA TO JUST WEST OF RENO AND HWY 395 NORTH OF RENO AS
OF 2AM. SLICK AND ICY ROADWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE ON ROAD SURFACES.

MAIN IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 8-10 HOURS
ACROSS THE RENO, CARSON CITY, MINDEN REGION. THESE HAVE BEEN THE
FAVORED REGIONS FOR BANDED SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP BENEATH THE AREA OF
DEFORMATION FORCING AND INSTABILITY. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS COUPLED WITH SHORT RANGE HI-RES HRRR MODEL INDICATE MAIN BAND
OF SNOWFALL POSITIONED FROM RENO TO CARSON CITY THROUGH ABOUT 10AM
THEN SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH DOUGLAS, ALPINE, AND NORTHERN MONO
COUNTY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1-2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN FAR WESTERN
NEVADA WITH 2-4" POSSIBLE AT LAKE LEVEL. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE HWY 395 CORRIDOR.
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WHICH WILL PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN MONO COUNTY WITH 6"+ POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS SUIT ON MONDAY BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
SPLITTING WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TRACKING OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PRESENT SOME
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SIERRA. THIS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER BY ANY MEANS, BUT A FEW
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL STILL COULD CREATE SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS ACROSS SIERRA PASSES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FUENTES

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LOCK IN ON A FARTHER EAST (OVER EASTERN NEVADA,
IDAHO AND UTAH) SOLUTION FOR AN UPPER WAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF A PACIFIC RIDGE. THIS WILL MEAN A MOST LIKELY DRY AND COOL NORTH
FLOW ON TUESDAY FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA. STILL, I
HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES TUESDAY AS A NOD TOWARDS THE FARTHER WEST SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE 27/12Z AND 28/00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE
TO BE PULLED ALTOGETHER SOON IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD ON
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE ON THURSDAY BEFORE RISING ABOVE AVERAGE ON
FRIDAY. SNYDER

AVIATION...
UPPER LOW DIRECTLY OVER NORTHWEST/WESTERN NEVADA IS BRINGING
WIDESPREAD -SN WITH IFR (LOCALLY LIFR) CONDITIONS TO FAR WESTERN
NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS FOR THE LAKE TAHOE AREA AND OUT
TOWARDS KNFL/KLOL/KHTH (CIGS). THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
(HRRR) INDICATES WIDESPREAD -SN OVER WESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOWERED CIGS/VIS
AND WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATION GOING IN -SN THIS MORNING FOR
WESTERN NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF LOW CIGS/VIS IN THE TAHOE AREA MAINLY
SOUTH OF KTRK. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR KRNO/KCXP
AS THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH. PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THROUGH MID MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THE NORTHERN SIERRA SO UNTREATED SURFACES WILL SEE A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, WORSENING CIGS/VIS ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR TERMINALS IN MONO COUNTY
ARE LIKELY, WITH A POSSIBLE LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT IN MINERAL AND
SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT. OUT IN THE BASIN AND
RANGE (KLOL/KNFL), ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THE MAIN ISSUE
LOWERED CIGS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION THIS MORNING. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 281735 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
935 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SNOW BAND ENDED UP DEVELOPING FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED, AND
JUST SHOWS THE DIFFICULT NATURE OF SLIDER SYSTEMS. AS FOR THIS
MORNING, UPDATING TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
SIERRA FRONT. WHILE THE BAND OF SNOW NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80
CONTINUES, THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE OF LATE FEBRUARY IS HELPING TO
MELT THE SNOW ON ROADS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MANY ROAD TEMPS
ARE IN THE MID 30S AND WEBCAMS SHOWING ROADS JUST WET. WHILE THERE
COULD BE A FEW LOCALIZED SLUSHY SPOTS THE NEXT HOUR, EXPECT THESE
TO DIMINISH. THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS THE BAND DISSIPATING IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS, THIS APPEARS TOO FAST, BUT
STILL EXPECT A SLOW WEAKENING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TAHOE, ROADS ARE STILL AN ISSUE THERE AROUND THE NORTH
SHORE AND I-80 SO THE ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD. ADDTIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE BAND WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO 4". WALLMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ARE LIKELY IN
THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS AND MORE LOCALIZED TRAVEL ISSUES IN
WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
THE CORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO SETTLE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH A DEFORMATION AREA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 4500 FEET WITH SNOW BEGINNING
TO MIX IN WITH RAIN AROUND DOWNTOWN RENO. NUMEROUS CHAIN CONTROLS
EXTEND ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN INCLUDING STRETCHES OF INTERSTATE 80
THROUGH THE SIERRA TO JUST WEST OF RENO AND HWY 395 NORTH OF RENO AS
OF 2AM. SLICK AND ICY ROADWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE ON ROAD SURFACES.

MAIN IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 8-10 HOURS
ACROSS THE RENO, CARSON CITY, MINDEN REGION. THESE HAVE BEEN THE
FAVORED REGIONS FOR BANDED SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP BENEATH THE AREA OF
DEFORMATION FORCING AND INSTABILITY. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS COUPLED WITH SHORT RANGE HI-RES HRRR MODEL INDICATE MAIN BAND
OF SNOWFALL POSITIONED FROM RENO TO CARSON CITY THROUGH ABOUT 10AM
THEN SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH DOUGLAS, ALPINE, AND NORTHERN MONO
COUNTY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1-2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN FAR WESTERN
NEVADA WITH 2-4" POSSIBLE AT LAKE LEVEL. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE HWY 395 CORRIDOR.
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WHICH WILL PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN MONO COUNTY WITH 6"+ POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS SUIT ON MONDAY BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
SPLITTING WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TRACKING OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PRESENT SOME
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SIERRA. THIS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER BY ANY MEANS, BUT A FEW
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL STILL COULD CREATE SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS ACROSS SIERRA PASSES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FUENTES

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LOCK IN ON A FARTHER EAST (OVER EASTERN NEVADA,
IDAHO AND UTAH) SOLUTION FOR AN UPPER WAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF A PACIFIC RIDGE. THIS WILL MEAN A MOST LIKELY DRY AND COOL NORTH
FLOW ON TUESDAY FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA. STILL, I
HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES TUESDAY AS A NOD TOWARDS THE FARTHER WEST SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE 27/12Z AND 28/00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE
TO BE PULLED ALTOGETHER SOON IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD ON
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE ON THURSDAY BEFORE RISING ABOVE AVERAGE ON
FRIDAY. SNYDER

AVIATION...
UPPER LOW DIRECTLY OVER NORTHWEST/WESTERN NEVADA IS BRINGING
WIDESPREAD -SN WITH IFR (LOCALLY LIFR) CONDITIONS TO FAR WESTERN
NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS FOR THE LAKE TAHOE AREA AND OUT
TOWARDS KNFL/KLOL/KHTH (CIGS). THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
(HRRR) INDICATES WIDESPREAD -SN OVER WESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOWERED CIGS/VIS
AND WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATION GOING IN -SN THIS MORNING FOR
WESTERN NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF LOW CIGS/VIS IN THE TAHOE AREA MAINLY
SOUTH OF KTRK. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR KRNO/KCXP
AS THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH. PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THROUGH MID MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THE NORTHERN SIERRA SO UNTREATED SURFACES WILL SEE A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, WORSENING CIGS/VIS ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR TERMINALS IN MONO COUNTY
ARE LIKELY, WITH A POSSIBLE LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT IN MINERAL AND
SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT. OUT IN THE BASIN AND
RANGE (KLOL/KNFL), ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THE MAIN ISSUE
LOWERED CIGS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION THIS MORNING. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 281735 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
935 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SNOW BAND ENDED UP DEVELOPING FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED, AND
JUST SHOWS THE DIFFICULT NATURE OF SLIDER SYSTEMS. AS FOR THIS
MORNING, UPDATING TO EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
SIERRA FRONT. WHILE THE BAND OF SNOW NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80
CONTINUES, THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE OF LATE FEBRUARY IS HELPING TO
MELT THE SNOW ON ROADS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MANY ROAD TEMPS
ARE IN THE MID 30S AND WEBCAMS SHOWING ROADS JUST WET. WHILE THERE
COULD BE A FEW LOCALIZED SLUSHY SPOTS THE NEXT HOUR, EXPECT THESE
TO DIMINISH. THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS THE BAND DISSIPATING IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS, THIS APPEARS TOO FAST, BUT
STILL EXPECT A SLOW WEAKENING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

AS FOR TAHOE, ROADS ARE STILL AN ISSUE THERE AROUND THE NORTH
SHORE AND I-80 SO THE ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD. ADDTIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE BAND WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO 4". WALLMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ARE LIKELY IN
THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS AND MORE LOCALIZED TRAVEL ISSUES IN
WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
THE CORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO SETTLE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH A DEFORMATION AREA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 4500 FEET WITH SNOW BEGINNING
TO MIX IN WITH RAIN AROUND DOWNTOWN RENO. NUMEROUS CHAIN CONTROLS
EXTEND ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN INCLUDING STRETCHES OF INTERSTATE 80
THROUGH THE SIERRA TO JUST WEST OF RENO AND HWY 395 NORTH OF RENO AS
OF 2AM. SLICK AND ICY ROADWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE ON ROAD SURFACES.

MAIN IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 8-10 HOURS
ACROSS THE RENO, CARSON CITY, MINDEN REGION. THESE HAVE BEEN THE
FAVORED REGIONS FOR BANDED SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP BENEATH THE AREA OF
DEFORMATION FORCING AND INSTABILITY. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS COUPLED WITH SHORT RANGE HI-RES HRRR MODEL INDICATE MAIN BAND
OF SNOWFALL POSITIONED FROM RENO TO CARSON CITY THROUGH ABOUT 10AM
THEN SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH DOUGLAS, ALPINE, AND NORTHERN MONO
COUNTY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1-2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN FAR WESTERN
NEVADA WITH 2-4" POSSIBLE AT LAKE LEVEL. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE HWY 395 CORRIDOR.
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WHICH WILL PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN MONO COUNTY WITH 6"+ POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS SUIT ON MONDAY BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
SPLITTING WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TRACKING OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PRESENT SOME
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SIERRA. THIS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER BY ANY MEANS, BUT A FEW
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL STILL COULD CREATE SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS ACROSS SIERRA PASSES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FUENTES

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LOCK IN ON A FARTHER EAST (OVER EASTERN NEVADA,
IDAHO AND UTAH) SOLUTION FOR AN UPPER WAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF A PACIFIC RIDGE. THIS WILL MEAN A MOST LIKELY DRY AND COOL NORTH
FLOW ON TUESDAY FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA. STILL, I
HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES TUESDAY AS A NOD TOWARDS THE FARTHER WEST SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE 27/12Z AND 28/00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE
TO BE PULLED ALTOGETHER SOON IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD ON
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE ON THURSDAY BEFORE RISING ABOVE AVERAGE ON
FRIDAY. SNYDER

AVIATION...
UPPER LOW DIRECTLY OVER NORTHWEST/WESTERN NEVADA IS BRINGING
WIDESPREAD -SN WITH IFR (LOCALLY LIFR) CONDITIONS TO FAR WESTERN
NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS FOR THE LAKE TAHOE AREA AND OUT
TOWARDS KNFL/KLOL/KHTH (CIGS). THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
(HRRR) INDICATES WIDESPREAD -SN OVER WESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOWERED CIGS/VIS
AND WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATION GOING IN -SN THIS MORNING FOR
WESTERN NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF LOW CIGS/VIS IN THE TAHOE AREA MAINLY
SOUTH OF KTRK. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR KRNO/KCXP
AS THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH. PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THROUGH MID MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THE NORTHERN SIERRA SO UNTREATED SURFACES WILL SEE A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, WORSENING CIGS/VIS ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR TERMINALS IN MONO COUNTY
ARE LIKELY, WITH A POSSIBLE LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT IN MINERAL AND
SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT. OUT IN THE BASIN AND
RANGE (KLOL/KNFL), ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THE MAIN ISSUE
LOWERED CIGS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION THIS MORNING. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 281118
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
318 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ARE LIKELY IN
THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS AND MORE LOCALIZED TRAVEL ISSUES IN
WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE CORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO SETTLE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH A DEFORMATION AREA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 4500 FEET WITH SNOW BEGINNING
TO MIX IN WITH RAIN AROUND DOWNTOWN RENO. NUMEROUS CHAIN CONTROLS
EXTEND ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN INCLUDING STRETCHES OF INTERSTATE 80
THROUGH THE SIERRA TO JUST WEST OF RENO AND HWY 395 NORTH OF RENO AS
OF 2AM. SLICK AND ICY ROADWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE ON ROAD SURFACES.

MAIN IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 8-10 HOURS
ACROSS THE RENO, CARSON CITY, MINDEN REGION. THESE HAVE BEEN THE
FAVORED REGIONS FOR BANDED SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP BENEATH THE AREA OF
DEFORMATION FORCING AND INSTABILITY. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS COUPLED WITH SHORT RANGE HI-RES HRRR MODEL INDICATE MAIN BAND
OF SNOWFALL POSITIONED FROM RENO TO CARSON CITY THROUGH ABOUT 10AM
THEN SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH DOUGLAS, ALPINE, AND NORTHERN MONO
COUNTY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1-2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN FAR WESTERN
NEVADA WITH 2-4" POSSIBLE AT LAKE LEVEL. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE HWY 395 CORRIDOR.
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WHICH WILL PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN MONO COUNTY WITH 6"+ POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS SUIT ON MONDAY BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
SPLITTING WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TRACKING OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PRESENT SOME
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SIERRA. THIS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER BY ANY MEANS, BUT A FEW
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL STILL COULD CREATE SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS ACROSS SIERRA PASSES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FUENTES


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LOCK IN ON A FARTHER EAST (OVER EASTERN NEVADA,
IDAHO AND UTAH) SOLUTION FOR AN UPPER WAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF A PACIFIC RIDGE. THIS WILL MEAN A MOST LIKELY DRY AND COOL NORTH
FLOW ON TUESDAY FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA. STILL, I
HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES TUESDAY AS A NOD TOWARDS THE FARTHER WEST SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE 27/12Z AND 28/00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE
TO BE PULLED ALTOGETHER SOON IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD ON
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE ON THURSDAY BEFORE RISING ABOVE AVERAGE ON
FRIDAY. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW DIRECTLY OVER NORTHWEST/WESTERN NEVADA IS BRINGING
WIDESPREAD -SN WITH IFR (LOCALLY LIFR) CONDITIONS TO FAR WESTERN
NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS FOR THE LAKE TAHOE AREA AND OUT
TOWARDS KNFL/KLOL/KHTH (CIGS). THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
(HRRR) INDICATES WIDESPREAD -SN OVER WESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOWERED CIGS/VIS
AND WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATION GOING IN -SN THIS MORNING FOR
WESTERN NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF LOW CIGS/VIS IN THE TAHOE AREA MAINLY
SOUTH OF KTRK. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR KRNO/KCXP
AS THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH. PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THROUGH MID MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THE NORTHERN SIERRA SO UNTREATED SURFACES WILL SEE A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, WORSENING CIGS/VIS ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR TERMINALS IN MONO COUNTY
ARE LIKELY, WITH A POSSIBLE LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT IN MINERAL AND
SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT. OUT IN THE BASIN AND
RANGE (KLOL/KNFL), ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THE MAIN ISSUE
LOWERED CIGS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION THIS MORNING. SNYDER

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING NVZ003.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 281118
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
318 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ARE LIKELY IN
THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS AND MORE LOCALIZED TRAVEL ISSUES IN
WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE CORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO SETTLE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH A DEFORMATION AREA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 4500 FEET WITH SNOW BEGINNING
TO MIX IN WITH RAIN AROUND DOWNTOWN RENO. NUMEROUS CHAIN CONTROLS
EXTEND ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN INCLUDING STRETCHES OF INTERSTATE 80
THROUGH THE SIERRA TO JUST WEST OF RENO AND HWY 395 NORTH OF RENO AS
OF 2AM. SLICK AND ICY ROADWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE ON ROAD SURFACES.

MAIN IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 8-10 HOURS
ACROSS THE RENO, CARSON CITY, MINDEN REGION. THESE HAVE BEEN THE
FAVORED REGIONS FOR BANDED SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP BENEATH THE AREA OF
DEFORMATION FORCING AND INSTABILITY. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS COUPLED WITH SHORT RANGE HI-RES HRRR MODEL INDICATE MAIN BAND
OF SNOWFALL POSITIONED FROM RENO TO CARSON CITY THROUGH ABOUT 10AM
THEN SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH DOUGLAS, ALPINE, AND NORTHERN MONO
COUNTY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1-2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN FAR WESTERN
NEVADA WITH 2-4" POSSIBLE AT LAKE LEVEL. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE HWY 395 CORRIDOR.
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WHICH WILL PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN MONO COUNTY WITH 6"+ POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS SUIT ON MONDAY BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
SPLITTING WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TRACKING OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PRESENT SOME
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SIERRA. THIS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER BY ANY MEANS, BUT A FEW
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL STILL COULD CREATE SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS ACROSS SIERRA PASSES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FUENTES


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LOCK IN ON A FARTHER EAST (OVER EASTERN NEVADA,
IDAHO AND UTAH) SOLUTION FOR AN UPPER WAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF A PACIFIC RIDGE. THIS WILL MEAN A MOST LIKELY DRY AND COOL NORTH
FLOW ON TUESDAY FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA. STILL, I
HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES TUESDAY AS A NOD TOWARDS THE FARTHER WEST SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE 27/12Z AND 28/00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE
TO BE PULLED ALTOGETHER SOON IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD ON
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE ON THURSDAY BEFORE RISING ABOVE AVERAGE ON
FRIDAY. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW DIRECTLY OVER NORTHWEST/WESTERN NEVADA IS BRINGING
WIDESPREAD -SN WITH IFR (LOCALLY LIFR) CONDITIONS TO FAR WESTERN
NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS FOR THE LAKE TAHOE AREA AND OUT
TOWARDS KNFL/KLOL/KHTH (CIGS). THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
(HRRR) INDICATES WIDESPREAD -SN OVER WESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOWERED CIGS/VIS
AND WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATION GOING IN -SN THIS MORNING FOR
WESTERN NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF LOW CIGS/VIS IN THE TAHOE AREA MAINLY
SOUTH OF KTRK. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR KRNO/KCXP
AS THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH. PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THROUGH MID MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THE NORTHERN SIERRA SO UNTREATED SURFACES WILL SEE A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, WORSENING CIGS/VIS ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR TERMINALS IN MONO COUNTY
ARE LIKELY, WITH A POSSIBLE LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT IN MINERAL AND
SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT. OUT IN THE BASIN AND
RANGE (KLOL/KNFL), ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THE MAIN ISSUE
LOWERED CIGS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION THIS MORNING. SNYDER

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING NVZ003.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 281118
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
318 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ARE LIKELY IN
THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS AND MORE LOCALIZED TRAVEL ISSUES IN
WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE CORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO SETTLE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH A DEFORMATION AREA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 4500 FEET WITH SNOW BEGINNING
TO MIX IN WITH RAIN AROUND DOWNTOWN RENO. NUMEROUS CHAIN CONTROLS
EXTEND ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN INCLUDING STRETCHES OF INTERSTATE 80
THROUGH THE SIERRA TO JUST WEST OF RENO AND HWY 395 NORTH OF RENO AS
OF 2AM. SLICK AND ICY ROADWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE ON ROAD SURFACES.

MAIN IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 8-10 HOURS
ACROSS THE RENO, CARSON CITY, MINDEN REGION. THESE HAVE BEEN THE
FAVORED REGIONS FOR BANDED SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP BENEATH THE AREA OF
DEFORMATION FORCING AND INSTABILITY. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS COUPLED WITH SHORT RANGE HI-RES HRRR MODEL INDICATE MAIN BAND
OF SNOWFALL POSITIONED FROM RENO TO CARSON CITY THROUGH ABOUT 10AM
THEN SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH DOUGLAS, ALPINE, AND NORTHERN MONO
COUNTY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1-2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN FAR WESTERN
NEVADA WITH 2-4" POSSIBLE AT LAKE LEVEL. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE HWY 395 CORRIDOR.
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WHICH WILL PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN MONO COUNTY WITH 6"+ POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS SUIT ON MONDAY BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
SPLITTING WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TRACKING OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PRESENT SOME
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SIERRA. THIS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER BY ANY MEANS, BUT A FEW
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL STILL COULD CREATE SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS ACROSS SIERRA PASSES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FUENTES


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LOCK IN ON A FARTHER EAST (OVER EASTERN NEVADA,
IDAHO AND UTAH) SOLUTION FOR AN UPPER WAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF A PACIFIC RIDGE. THIS WILL MEAN A MOST LIKELY DRY AND COOL NORTH
FLOW ON TUESDAY FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA. STILL, I
HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES TUESDAY AS A NOD TOWARDS THE FARTHER WEST SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE 27/12Z AND 28/00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE
TO BE PULLED ALTOGETHER SOON IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD ON
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE ON THURSDAY BEFORE RISING ABOVE AVERAGE ON
FRIDAY. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW DIRECTLY OVER NORTHWEST/WESTERN NEVADA IS BRINGING
WIDESPREAD -SN WITH IFR (LOCALLY LIFR) CONDITIONS TO FAR WESTERN
NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS FOR THE LAKE TAHOE AREA AND OUT
TOWARDS KNFL/KLOL/KHTH (CIGS). THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
(HRRR) INDICATES WIDESPREAD -SN OVER WESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOWERED CIGS/VIS
AND WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATION GOING IN -SN THIS MORNING FOR
WESTERN NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF LOW CIGS/VIS IN THE TAHOE AREA MAINLY
SOUTH OF KTRK. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR KRNO/KCXP
AS THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH. PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THROUGH MID MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THE NORTHERN SIERRA SO UNTREATED SURFACES WILL SEE A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, WORSENING CIGS/VIS ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR TERMINALS IN MONO COUNTY
ARE LIKELY, WITH A POSSIBLE LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT IN MINERAL AND
SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT. OUT IN THE BASIN AND
RANGE (KLOL/KNFL), ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THE MAIN ISSUE
LOWERED CIGS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION THIS MORNING. SNYDER

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING NVZ003.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 281118
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
318 AM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ARE LIKELY IN
THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS AND MORE LOCALIZED TRAVEL ISSUES IN
WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE CORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO SETTLE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH A DEFORMATION AREA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SIERRA. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 4500 FEET WITH SNOW BEGINNING
TO MIX IN WITH RAIN AROUND DOWNTOWN RENO. NUMEROUS CHAIN CONTROLS
EXTEND ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN INCLUDING STRETCHES OF INTERSTATE 80
THROUGH THE SIERRA TO JUST WEST OF RENO AND HWY 395 NORTH OF RENO AS
OF 2AM. SLICK AND ICY ROADWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
WHERE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE ON ROAD SURFACES.

MAIN IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 8-10 HOURS
ACROSS THE RENO, CARSON CITY, MINDEN REGION. THESE HAVE BEEN THE
FAVORED REGIONS FOR BANDED SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP BENEATH THE AREA OF
DEFORMATION FORCING AND INSTABILITY. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS COUPLED WITH SHORT RANGE HI-RES HRRR MODEL INDICATE MAIN BAND
OF SNOWFALL POSITIONED FROM RENO TO CARSON CITY THROUGH ABOUT 10AM
THEN SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH DOUGLAS, ALPINE, AND NORTHERN MONO
COUNTY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1-2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN FAR WESTERN
NEVADA WITH 2-4" POSSIBLE AT LAKE LEVEL. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE HWY 395 CORRIDOR.
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WHICH WILL PRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN MONO COUNTY WITH 6"+ POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS SUIT ON MONDAY BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
SPLITTING WITH THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TRACKING OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PRESENT SOME
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SIERRA. THIS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG SNOW PRODUCER BY ANY MEANS, BUT A FEW
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL STILL COULD CREATE SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS ACROSS SIERRA PASSES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FUENTES


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO LOCK IN ON A FARTHER EAST (OVER EASTERN NEVADA,
IDAHO AND UTAH) SOLUTION FOR AN UPPER WAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE
OF A PACIFIC RIDGE. THIS WILL MEAN A MOST LIKELY DRY AND COOL NORTH
FLOW ON TUESDAY FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA. STILL, I
HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES TUESDAY AS A NOD TOWARDS THE FARTHER WEST SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE 27/12Z AND 28/00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF. THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE
TO BE PULLED ALTOGETHER SOON IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND EASTWARD ON
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE ON THURSDAY BEFORE RISING ABOVE AVERAGE ON
FRIDAY. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW DIRECTLY OVER NORTHWEST/WESTERN NEVADA IS BRINGING
WIDESPREAD -SN WITH IFR (LOCALLY LIFR) CONDITIONS TO FAR WESTERN
NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS FOR THE LAKE TAHOE AREA AND OUT
TOWARDS KNFL/KLOL/KHTH (CIGS). THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
(HRRR) INDICATES WIDESPREAD -SN OVER WESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING AS
THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOWERED CIGS/VIS
AND WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATION GOING IN -SN THIS MORNING FOR
WESTERN NEVADA, WITH AREAS OF LOW CIGS/VIS IN THE TAHOE AREA MAINLY
SOUTH OF KTRK. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR KRNO/KCXP
AS THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH. PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THROUGH MID MORNING FOR FAR WESTERN NEVADA AND
THE NORTHERN SIERRA SO UNTREATED SURFACES WILL SEE A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, WORSENING CIGS/VIS ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
DROPS SOUTH. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR TERMINALS IN MONO COUNTY
ARE LIKELY, WITH A POSSIBLE LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT IN MINERAL AND
SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT. OUT IN THE BASIN AND
RANGE (KLOL/KNFL), ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY WITH THE MAIN ISSUE
LOWERED CIGS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION THIS MORNING. SNYDER

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON NVZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING NVZ003.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 280529 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
929 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PUT DOWN SOME QUICK LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA ABOVE 6000 FEET EARLIER THIS EVENING
WITH MOSTLY RAIN BEING REPORTED DOWN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS.
CURRENTLY UPPER LOW IS MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO CA WITH BOTH
SATELLITE ENHANCEMENT AND RADAR TRENDS BEGINNING TO SHOW AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHERN SIERRA COUNTIES OF PLUMAS
AND SIERRA, EASTWARD TO PYRAMID LAKE. THIS IS LIKELY THE FORCING
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO LATCH ONTO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
AND THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE TAHOE BASIN AND FAR WESTERN NV DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MODELS DO SHOW IT STALLING IN AN AREA OF
DEFORMATION ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN AND WESTERN NV AS UPPER LOW
DROPS TO NEAR THE CENTRAL CA COAST SAT MORNING.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE 00Z MODEL DATA WITH REGARD TO
WHERE THIS BAND WILL STALL. SO NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE
GOING TO BE MADE THIS EVENING. SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WHERE OTHERS WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES ACCUMULATION
BY MORNING. DEWPOINTS FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 5000 FEET, INCLUDING
THE TRUCKEE MEADOWS, WERE IN THE LOWER 30S. SO UNLESS A HEAVIER
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OCCURS IN THIS AREA, THE PRECIPITATION MAY
ACTUALLY MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. WE ARE
STILL THINKING THAT THE CARSON CITY AND MINDEN AREAS AS WELL AS
FOOTHILLS STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN
WESTERN NV. BUT MAKE SURE TO MONITOR WEATHER AND ROAD CONDITIONS
CAREFULLY DUE TO THE EXPECTED VARIABILITY OF SNOWFALL IN WESTERN
NV. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT ROADS WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS
THROUGHOUT THE TAHOE BASIN. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ARE LIKELY IN
THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS AND MORE LOCALIZED TRAVEL ISSUES
IN WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER
SYSTEM EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT
WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER TREKS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THEN, AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT,
GFS/NAM/EC ALL HINT AT A BAND OF SNOW FORMING IN THE DEFORMATION
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE LOCATION REMAINS IN QUESTION, BUT
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION CONTINUES TO BE HIGHWAY 50 SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN MONO COUNTY. HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FCST
UPDATE. STILL EXPECT A ROUGH 1-2 INCHES FOR THE SIERRA FRONT WITH
2-5 INCHES IN THE TAHOE BASIN OUTSIDE THIS BAND WITH DOUBLE THE
AMOUNTS OR MORE IN THIS BAND.

AWAY FROM RENO/TAHOE, EXPECT THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND
ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MORE LOCALIZED. A QUICK INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER WITH PELLETS. THESE ALONE COULD CREATE
TRAVEL HEADACHES AS ONE GOES FROM NEAR DRY PAVEMENT TO A VERY
SLICK ROAD WITH ICE PELLETS WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED FEET. THE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR SLICK ROADS

EXPECT THE THREAT FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO WIND DOWN TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES SOUTH. HOWEVER, IT WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE ACROSS THE REGION AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR AGAIN. WHILE THE ROADS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST
ACCUMULATION, INTENSE PELLET SHOWERS COULD CREATE THE SAME TRAVEL
ISSUES SEEN THIS EVENING IN LOCALIZED SPOTS.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD SEE A BIT STEADIER SNOW IN MONO COUNTY
WITH NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL. HOWEVER, BELIEVE THE DAYTIME
INSOLATION WILL KEEP ROAD ISSUES MINOR AND THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING RIGHT NEAR THE CREST PRECLUDE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. MONO COUNTY WILL SEE THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
UPSLOPE FLOW, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL, BUT GRADUAL CLEARING AND LESS WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL
WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WALLMANN

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FASTER
WITH SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH NEAR THE WEST COAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY, WITH MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THIS
PATTERN WOULD BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING MUCH ORGANIZED PRECIP
TO THE SIERRA OR WESTERN NV, WITH MAYBE A SHORT ROUND OF SHOWERS
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT, THEN DRYING QUICKLY BY TUESDAY. PREVIOUS
ECMWF RUNS WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
REGION, BUT THE 12Z RUN TRENDED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SCENARIO. AS
A RESULT, WE LOWERED POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS RETAINED
ONLY FOR THE TAHOE-MONO ZONES AND SOUTHERN MINERAL COUNTY. ON
TUESDAY, PRECIP WAS REMOVED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

WHILE TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL, THE COLDEST AIR APPEARS TO PUSH FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS. SO EVEN IF PRECIP DOES DEVELOP, IT MAY END
UP AS RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX BELOW 5000 FEET. ALSO WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH PUSHING EAST SOONER AND THE STRONGER NORTH FLOW MORE LIKELY
TO SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN, POTENTIAL IS REDUCED FOR
GUSTY NORTHEAST RIDGE WINDS OVER THE SIERRA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN,
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. TEMPS
COULD RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AS SOON AS THURSDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY BY
FRIDAY AS HIGHS APPROACH 60 DEGREES IN WESTERN NV. THERE COULD BE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS
UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS. MJD

AVIATION...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS THRU 04Z THIS EVENING WILL BRING MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT TIMES MAINLY AT KTRK/KTVL WHERE PRECIP TYPE IS MORE
LIKELY TO BE SNOW. FOR WESTERN NV, SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE RAIN OR GRAUPEL WHICH WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON CIGS/VIS
BUT COULD PRODUCE ICING CONCERNS. WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT ARE ALSO
EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS THRU EARLY EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SAT AM, GENERALLY BETWEEN 04-18Z IN THE TAHOE
BASIN AND 09-18Z FOR FAR WESTERN NV, BANDS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP WITH CONDS WORSENING TO IFR/LIFR AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
RUNWAYS. CURRENTLY EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT KRNO/KCXP, WITH
2-4 INCHES AT KTRK/KTVL. IF A HEAVIER SNOW BAND SETS UP, AND
PERSISTS OVER ANY TERMINALS THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE MUCH HIGHER. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY AFTN-EVE WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDS STILL POSSIBLE.

FOR KMMH, SCT -SHSN WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS TONIGHT, BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY NVZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY NVZ003.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 280529 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
929 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS PUT DOWN SOME QUICK LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA ABOVE 6000 FEET EARLIER THIS EVENING
WITH MOSTLY RAIN BEING REPORTED DOWN AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS.
CURRENTLY UPPER LOW IS MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO CA WITH BOTH
SATELLITE ENHANCEMENT AND RADAR TRENDS BEGINNING TO SHOW AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHERN SIERRA COUNTIES OF PLUMAS
AND SIERRA, EASTWARD TO PYRAMID LAKE. THIS IS LIKELY THE FORCING
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO LATCH ONTO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
AND THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE TAHOE BASIN AND FAR WESTERN NV DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MODELS DO SHOW IT STALLING IN AN AREA OF
DEFORMATION ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN AND WESTERN NV AS UPPER LOW
DROPS TO NEAR THE CENTRAL CA COAST SAT MORNING.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE 00Z MODEL DATA WITH REGARD TO
WHERE THIS BAND WILL STALL. SO NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE
GOING TO BE MADE THIS EVENING. SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WHERE OTHERS WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES ACCUMULATION
BY MORNING. DEWPOINTS FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 5000 FEET, INCLUDING
THE TRUCKEE MEADOWS, WERE IN THE LOWER 30S. SO UNLESS A HEAVIER
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OCCURS IN THIS AREA, THE PRECIPITATION MAY
ACTUALLY MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. WE ARE
STILL THINKING THAT THE CARSON CITY AND MINDEN AREAS AS WELL AS
FOOTHILLS STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN
WESTERN NV. BUT MAKE SURE TO MONITOR WEATHER AND ROAD CONDITIONS
CAREFULLY DUE TO THE EXPECTED VARIABILITY OF SNOWFALL IN WESTERN
NV. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT ROADS WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS
THROUGHOUT THE TAHOE BASIN. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ARE LIKELY IN
THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS AND MORE LOCALIZED TRAVEL ISSUES
IN WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER
SYSTEM EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT
WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER TREKS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THEN, AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT,
GFS/NAM/EC ALL HINT AT A BAND OF SNOW FORMING IN THE DEFORMATION
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE LOCATION REMAINS IN QUESTION, BUT
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION CONTINUES TO BE HIGHWAY 50 SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN MONO COUNTY. HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FCST
UPDATE. STILL EXPECT A ROUGH 1-2 INCHES FOR THE SIERRA FRONT WITH
2-5 INCHES IN THE TAHOE BASIN OUTSIDE THIS BAND WITH DOUBLE THE
AMOUNTS OR MORE IN THIS BAND.

AWAY FROM RENO/TAHOE, EXPECT THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND
ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MORE LOCALIZED. A QUICK INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER WITH PELLETS. THESE ALONE COULD CREATE
TRAVEL HEADACHES AS ONE GOES FROM NEAR DRY PAVEMENT TO A VERY
SLICK ROAD WITH ICE PELLETS WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED FEET. THE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR SLICK ROADS

EXPECT THE THREAT FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO WIND DOWN TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES SOUTH. HOWEVER, IT WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE ACROSS THE REGION AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR AGAIN. WHILE THE ROADS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST
ACCUMULATION, INTENSE PELLET SHOWERS COULD CREATE THE SAME TRAVEL
ISSUES SEEN THIS EVENING IN LOCALIZED SPOTS.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD SEE A BIT STEADIER SNOW IN MONO COUNTY
WITH NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL. HOWEVER, BELIEVE THE DAYTIME
INSOLATION WILL KEEP ROAD ISSUES MINOR AND THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING RIGHT NEAR THE CREST PRECLUDE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. MONO COUNTY WILL SEE THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
UPSLOPE FLOW, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL, BUT GRADUAL CLEARING AND LESS WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL
WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WALLMANN

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FASTER
WITH SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH NEAR THE WEST COAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY, WITH MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THIS
PATTERN WOULD BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING MUCH ORGANIZED PRECIP
TO THE SIERRA OR WESTERN NV, WITH MAYBE A SHORT ROUND OF SHOWERS
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT, THEN DRYING QUICKLY BY TUESDAY. PREVIOUS
ECMWF RUNS WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
REGION, BUT THE 12Z RUN TRENDED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SCENARIO. AS
A RESULT, WE LOWERED POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS RETAINED
ONLY FOR THE TAHOE-MONO ZONES AND SOUTHERN MINERAL COUNTY. ON
TUESDAY, PRECIP WAS REMOVED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

WHILE TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL, THE COLDEST AIR APPEARS TO PUSH FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS. SO EVEN IF PRECIP DOES DEVELOP, IT MAY END
UP AS RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX BELOW 5000 FEET. ALSO WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH PUSHING EAST SOONER AND THE STRONGER NORTH FLOW MORE LIKELY
TO SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN, POTENTIAL IS REDUCED FOR
GUSTY NORTHEAST RIDGE WINDS OVER THE SIERRA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN,
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. TEMPS
COULD RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AS SOON AS THURSDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY BY
FRIDAY AS HIGHS APPROACH 60 DEGREES IN WESTERN NV. THERE COULD BE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS
UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS. MJD

AVIATION...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS THRU 04Z THIS EVENING WILL BRING MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT TIMES MAINLY AT KTRK/KTVL WHERE PRECIP TYPE IS MORE
LIKELY TO BE SNOW. FOR WESTERN NV, SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE RAIN OR GRAUPEL WHICH WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON CIGS/VIS
BUT COULD PRODUCE ICING CONCERNS. WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT ARE ALSO
EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS THRU EARLY EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SAT AM, GENERALLY BETWEEN 04-18Z IN THE TAHOE
BASIN AND 09-18Z FOR FAR WESTERN NV, BANDS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP WITH CONDS WORSENING TO IFR/LIFR AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
RUNWAYS. CURRENTLY EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT KRNO/KCXP, WITH
2-4 INCHES AT KTRK/KTVL. IF A HEAVIER SNOW BAND SETS UP, AND
PERSISTS OVER ANY TERMINALS THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE MUCH HIGHER. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY AFTN-EVE WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDS STILL POSSIBLE.

FOR KMMH, SCT -SHSN WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS TONIGHT, BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY NVZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY NVZ003.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 272224
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
224 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ARE LIKELY IN
THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS AND MORE LOCALIZED TRAVEL ISSUES
IN WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER
SYSTEM EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER TREKS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THEN, AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT,
GFS/NAM/EC ALL HINT AT A BAND OF SNOW FORMING IN THE DEFORMATION
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE LOCATION REMAINS IN QUESTION, BUT
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION CONTINUES TO BE HIGHWAY 50 SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN MONO COUNTY. HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FCST
UPDATE. STILL EXPECT A ROUGH 1-2 INCHES FOR THE SIERRA FRONT WITH
2-5 INCHES IN THE TAHOE BASIN OUTSIDE THIS BAND WITH DOUBLE THE
AMOUNTS OR MORE IN THIS BAND.

AWAY FROM RENO/TAHOE, EXPECT THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND
ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MORE LOCALIZED. A QUICK INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER WITH PELLETS. THESE ALONE COULD CREATE
TRAVEL HEADACHES AS ONE GOES FROM NEAR DRY PAVEMENT TO A VERY
SLICK ROAD WITH ICE PELLETS WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED FEET. THE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR SLICK ROADS

EXPECT THE THREAT FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO WIND DOWN TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES SOUTH. HOWEVER, IT WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE ACROSS THE REGION AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR AGAIN. WHILE THE ROADS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST
ACCUMULATION, INTENSE PELLET SHOWERS COULD CREATE THE SAME TRAVEL
ISSUES SEEN THIS EVENING IN LOCALIZED SPOTS.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD SEE A BIT STEADIER SNOW IN MONO COUNTY
WITH NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL. HOWEVER, BELIEVE THE DAYTIME
INSOLATION WILL KEEP ROAD ISSUES MINOR AND THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING RIGHT NEAR THE CREST PRECLUDE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. MONO COUNTY WILL SEE THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
UPSLOPE FLOW, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL, BUT GRADUAL CLEARING AND LESS WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL
WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FASTER
WITH SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH NEAR THE WEST COAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY, WITH MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THIS
PATTERN WOULD BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING MUCH ORGANIZED PRECIP
TO THE SIERRA OR WESTERN NV, WITH MAYBE A SHORT ROUND OF SHOWERS
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT, THEN DRYING QUICKLY BY TUESDAY. PREVIOUS
ECMWF RUNS WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
REGION, BUT THE 12Z RUN TRENDED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SCENARIO. AS
A RESULT, WE LOWERED POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS RETAINED
ONLY FOR THE TAHOE-MONO ZONES AND SOUTHERN MINERAL COUNTY. ON
TUESDAY, PRECIP WAS REMOVED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

WHILE TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL, THE COLDEST AIR APPEARS TO PUSH FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS. SO EVEN IF PRECIP DOES DEVELOP, IT MAY END
UP AS RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX BELOW 5000 FEET. ALSO WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH PUSHING EAST SOONER AND THE STRONGER NORTH FLOW MORE LIKELY
TO SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN, POTENTIAL IS REDUCED FOR
GUSTY NORTHEAST RIDGE WINDS OVER THE SIERRA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN,
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. TEMPS
COULD RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AS SOON AS THURSDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY BY
FRIDAY AS HIGHS APPROACH 60 DEGREES IN WESTERN NV. THERE COULD BE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS
UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS THRU 04Z THIS EVENING WILL BRING MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT TIMES MAINLY AT KTRK/KTVL WHERE PRECIP TYPE IS MORE
LIKELY TO BE SNOW. FOR WESTERN NV, SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE RAIN OR GRAUPEL WHICH WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON CIGS/VIS
BUT COULD PRODUCE ICING CONCERNS. WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT ARE ALSO
EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS THRU EARLY EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SAT AM, GENERALLY BETWEEN 04-18Z IN THE TAHOE
BASIN AND 09-18Z FOR FAR WESTERN NV, BANDS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP WITH CONDS WORSENING TO IFR/LIFR AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
RUNWAYS. CURRENTLY EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT KRNO/KCXP, WITH
2-4 INCHES AT KTRK/KTVL. IF A HEAVIER SNOW BAND SETS UP, AND
PERSISTS OVER ANY TERMINALS THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE MUCH HIGHER. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY AFTN-EVE WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDS STILL POSSIBLE.

FOR KMMH, SCT -SHSN WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS TONIGHT, BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW. MJD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY NVZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST
     SATURDAY NVZ003.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 272224
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
224 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ARE LIKELY IN
THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS AND MORE LOCALIZED TRAVEL ISSUES
IN WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER
SYSTEM EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER TREKS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THEN, AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT,
GFS/NAM/EC ALL HINT AT A BAND OF SNOW FORMING IN THE DEFORMATION
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE LOCATION REMAINS IN QUESTION, BUT
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION CONTINUES TO BE HIGHWAY 50 SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN MONO COUNTY. HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FCST
UPDATE. STILL EXPECT A ROUGH 1-2 INCHES FOR THE SIERRA FRONT WITH
2-5 INCHES IN THE TAHOE BASIN OUTSIDE THIS BAND WITH DOUBLE THE
AMOUNTS OR MORE IN THIS BAND.

AWAY FROM RENO/TAHOE, EXPECT THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND
ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MORE LOCALIZED. A QUICK INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER WITH PELLETS. THESE ALONE COULD CREATE
TRAVEL HEADACHES AS ONE GOES FROM NEAR DRY PAVEMENT TO A VERY
SLICK ROAD WITH ICE PELLETS WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED FEET. THE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR SLICK ROADS

EXPECT THE THREAT FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO WIND DOWN TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES SOUTH. HOWEVER, IT WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE ACROSS THE REGION AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR AGAIN. WHILE THE ROADS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST
ACCUMULATION, INTENSE PELLET SHOWERS COULD CREATE THE SAME TRAVEL
ISSUES SEEN THIS EVENING IN LOCALIZED SPOTS.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD SEE A BIT STEADIER SNOW IN MONO COUNTY
WITH NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL. HOWEVER, BELIEVE THE DAYTIME
INSOLATION WILL KEEP ROAD ISSUES MINOR AND THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING RIGHT NEAR THE CREST PRECLUDE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. MONO COUNTY WILL SEE THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
UPSLOPE FLOW, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL, BUT GRADUAL CLEARING AND LESS WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL
WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FASTER
WITH SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH NEAR THE WEST COAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY, WITH MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THIS
PATTERN WOULD BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING MUCH ORGANIZED PRECIP
TO THE SIERRA OR WESTERN NV, WITH MAYBE A SHORT ROUND OF SHOWERS
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT, THEN DRYING QUICKLY BY TUESDAY. PREVIOUS
ECMWF RUNS WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
REGION, BUT THE 12Z RUN TRENDED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SCENARIO. AS
A RESULT, WE LOWERED POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS RETAINED
ONLY FOR THE TAHOE-MONO ZONES AND SOUTHERN MINERAL COUNTY. ON
TUESDAY, PRECIP WAS REMOVED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

WHILE TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL, THE COLDEST AIR APPEARS TO PUSH FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS. SO EVEN IF PRECIP DOES DEVELOP, IT MAY END
UP AS RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX BELOW 5000 FEET. ALSO WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH PUSHING EAST SOONER AND THE STRONGER NORTH FLOW MORE LIKELY
TO SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN, POTENTIAL IS REDUCED FOR
GUSTY NORTHEAST RIDGE WINDS OVER THE SIERRA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN,
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. TEMPS
COULD RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AS SOON AS THURSDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY BY
FRIDAY AS HIGHS APPROACH 60 DEGREES IN WESTERN NV. THERE COULD BE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS
UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS THRU 04Z THIS EVENING WILL BRING MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT TIMES MAINLY AT KTRK/KTVL WHERE PRECIP TYPE IS MORE
LIKELY TO BE SNOW. FOR WESTERN NV, SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE RAIN OR GRAUPEL WHICH WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON CIGS/VIS
BUT COULD PRODUCE ICING CONCERNS. WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT ARE ALSO
EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS THRU EARLY EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SAT AM, GENERALLY BETWEEN 04-18Z IN THE TAHOE
BASIN AND 09-18Z FOR FAR WESTERN NV, BANDS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP WITH CONDS WORSENING TO IFR/LIFR AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
RUNWAYS. CURRENTLY EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT KRNO/KCXP, WITH
2-4 INCHES AT KTRK/KTVL. IF A HEAVIER SNOW BAND SETS UP, AND
PERSISTS OVER ANY TERMINALS THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE MUCH HIGHER. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY AFTN-EVE WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDS STILL POSSIBLE.

FOR KMMH, SCT -SHSN WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS TONIGHT, BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW. MJD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY NVZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST
     SATURDAY NVZ003.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 272224
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
224 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ARE LIKELY IN
THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS AND MORE LOCALIZED TRAVEL ISSUES
IN WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER
SYSTEM EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER TREKS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THEN, AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT,
GFS/NAM/EC ALL HINT AT A BAND OF SNOW FORMING IN THE DEFORMATION
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE LOCATION REMAINS IN QUESTION, BUT
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION CONTINUES TO BE HIGHWAY 50 SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN MONO COUNTY. HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FCST
UPDATE. STILL EXPECT A ROUGH 1-2 INCHES FOR THE SIERRA FRONT WITH
2-5 INCHES IN THE TAHOE BASIN OUTSIDE THIS BAND WITH DOUBLE THE
AMOUNTS OR MORE IN THIS BAND.

AWAY FROM RENO/TAHOE, EXPECT THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND
ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MORE LOCALIZED. A QUICK INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER WITH PELLETS. THESE ALONE COULD CREATE
TRAVEL HEADACHES AS ONE GOES FROM NEAR DRY PAVEMENT TO A VERY
SLICK ROAD WITH ICE PELLETS WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED FEET. THE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR SLICK ROADS

EXPECT THE THREAT FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO WIND DOWN TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES SOUTH. HOWEVER, IT WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE ACROSS THE REGION AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR AGAIN. WHILE THE ROADS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST
ACCUMULATION, INTENSE PELLET SHOWERS COULD CREATE THE SAME TRAVEL
ISSUES SEEN THIS EVENING IN LOCALIZED SPOTS.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD SEE A BIT STEADIER SNOW IN MONO COUNTY
WITH NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL. HOWEVER, BELIEVE THE DAYTIME
INSOLATION WILL KEEP ROAD ISSUES MINOR AND THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING RIGHT NEAR THE CREST PRECLUDE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. MONO COUNTY WILL SEE THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
UPSLOPE FLOW, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL, BUT GRADUAL CLEARING AND LESS WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL
WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FASTER
WITH SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH NEAR THE WEST COAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY, WITH MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THIS
PATTERN WOULD BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING MUCH ORGANIZED PRECIP
TO THE SIERRA OR WESTERN NV, WITH MAYBE A SHORT ROUND OF SHOWERS
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT, THEN DRYING QUICKLY BY TUESDAY. PREVIOUS
ECMWF RUNS WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
REGION, BUT THE 12Z RUN TRENDED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SCENARIO. AS
A RESULT, WE LOWERED POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS RETAINED
ONLY FOR THE TAHOE-MONO ZONES AND SOUTHERN MINERAL COUNTY. ON
TUESDAY, PRECIP WAS REMOVED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

WHILE TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL, THE COLDEST AIR APPEARS TO PUSH FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS. SO EVEN IF PRECIP DOES DEVELOP, IT MAY END
UP AS RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX BELOW 5000 FEET. ALSO WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH PUSHING EAST SOONER AND THE STRONGER NORTH FLOW MORE LIKELY
TO SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN, POTENTIAL IS REDUCED FOR
GUSTY NORTHEAST RIDGE WINDS OVER THE SIERRA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN,
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. TEMPS
COULD RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AS SOON AS THURSDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY BY
FRIDAY AS HIGHS APPROACH 60 DEGREES IN WESTERN NV. THERE COULD BE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS
UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS THRU 04Z THIS EVENING WILL BRING MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT TIMES MAINLY AT KTRK/KTVL WHERE PRECIP TYPE IS MORE
LIKELY TO BE SNOW. FOR WESTERN NV, SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE RAIN OR GRAUPEL WHICH WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON CIGS/VIS
BUT COULD PRODUCE ICING CONCERNS. WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT ARE ALSO
EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS THRU EARLY EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SAT AM, GENERALLY BETWEEN 04-18Z IN THE TAHOE
BASIN AND 09-18Z FOR FAR WESTERN NV, BANDS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP WITH CONDS WORSENING TO IFR/LIFR AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
RUNWAYS. CURRENTLY EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT KRNO/KCXP, WITH
2-4 INCHES AT KTRK/KTVL. IF A HEAVIER SNOW BAND SETS UP, AND
PERSISTS OVER ANY TERMINALS THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE MUCH HIGHER. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY AFTN-EVE WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDS STILL POSSIBLE.

FOR KMMH, SCT -SHSN WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS TONIGHT, BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW. MJD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY NVZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST
     SATURDAY NVZ003.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 272224
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
224 PM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL ARE LIKELY IN
THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS AND MORE LOCALIZED TRAVEL ISSUES
IN WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER
SYSTEM EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER TREKS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THEN, AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT,
GFS/NAM/EC ALL HINT AT A BAND OF SNOW FORMING IN THE DEFORMATION
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE LOCATION REMAINS IN QUESTION, BUT
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION CONTINUES TO BE HIGHWAY 50 SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN MONO COUNTY. HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FCST
UPDATE. STILL EXPECT A ROUGH 1-2 INCHES FOR THE SIERRA FRONT WITH
2-5 INCHES IN THE TAHOE BASIN OUTSIDE THIS BAND WITH DOUBLE THE
AMOUNTS OR MORE IN THIS BAND.

AWAY FROM RENO/TAHOE, EXPECT THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND
ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MORE LOCALIZED. A QUICK INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER WITH PELLETS. THESE ALONE COULD CREATE
TRAVEL HEADACHES AS ONE GOES FROM NEAR DRY PAVEMENT TO A VERY
SLICK ROAD WITH ICE PELLETS WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED FEET. THE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR SLICK ROADS

EXPECT THE THREAT FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO WIND DOWN TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES SOUTH. HOWEVER, IT WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE ACROSS THE REGION AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR AGAIN. WHILE THE ROADS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOST
ACCUMULATION, INTENSE PELLET SHOWERS COULD CREATE THE SAME TRAVEL
ISSUES SEEN THIS EVENING IN LOCALIZED SPOTS.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD SEE A BIT STEADIER SNOW IN MONO COUNTY
WITH NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL. HOWEVER, BELIEVE THE DAYTIME
INSOLATION WILL KEEP ROAD ISSUES MINOR AND THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING RIGHT NEAR THE CREST PRECLUDE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. MONO COUNTY WILL SEE THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WITH THE
UPSLOPE FLOW, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL, BUT GRADUAL CLEARING AND LESS WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL
WARMER THAN SATURDAY. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FASTER
WITH SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH NEAR THE WEST COAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY, WITH MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN US. THIS
PATTERN WOULD BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING MUCH ORGANIZED PRECIP
TO THE SIERRA OR WESTERN NV, WITH MAYBE A SHORT ROUND OF SHOWERS
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT, THEN DRYING QUICKLY BY TUESDAY. PREVIOUS
ECMWF RUNS WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
REGION, BUT THE 12Z RUN TRENDED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SCENARIO. AS
A RESULT, WE LOWERED POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS RETAINED
ONLY FOR THE TAHOE-MONO ZONES AND SOUTHERN MINERAL COUNTY. ON
TUESDAY, PRECIP WAS REMOVED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

WHILE TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE STILL LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL, THE COLDEST AIR APPEARS TO PUSH FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS. SO EVEN IF PRECIP DOES DEVELOP, IT MAY END
UP AS RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX BELOW 5000 FEET. ALSO WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH PUSHING EAST SOONER AND THE STRONGER NORTH FLOW MORE LIKELY
TO SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN, POTENTIAL IS REDUCED FOR
GUSTY NORTHEAST RIDGE WINDS OVER THE SIERRA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN,
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. TEMPS
COULD RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AS SOON AS THURSDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY BY
FRIDAY AS HIGHS APPROACH 60 DEGREES IN WESTERN NV. THERE COULD BE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS
UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS THRU 04Z THIS EVENING WILL BRING MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT TIMES MAINLY AT KTRK/KTVL WHERE PRECIP TYPE IS MORE
LIKELY TO BE SNOW. FOR WESTERN NV, SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE RAIN OR GRAUPEL WHICH WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON CIGS/VIS
BUT COULD PRODUCE ICING CONCERNS. WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT ARE ALSO
EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS THRU EARLY EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SAT AM, GENERALLY BETWEEN 04-18Z IN THE TAHOE
BASIN AND 09-18Z FOR FAR WESTERN NV, BANDS OF SNOW ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP WITH CONDS WORSENING TO IFR/LIFR AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
RUNWAYS. CURRENTLY EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AT KRNO/KCXP, WITH
2-4 INCHES AT KTRK/KTVL. IF A HEAVIER SNOW BAND SETS UP, AND
PERSISTS OVER ANY TERMINALS THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE MUCH HIGHER. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY AFTN-EVE WITH
LOCAL IFR CONDS STILL POSSIBLE.

FOR KMMH, SCT -SHSN WILL PRODUCE SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS TONIGHT, BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS DUE TO SNOW ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW. MJD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY NVZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST
     SATURDAY NVZ003.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 271711 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
911 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE UPDATE IS TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE SIERRA FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS FOR THE REST OF
TODAY, DID MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO ADD THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-80 THIS AFTERNOON AND REDUCE SOME CLOUD
COVER TO MAKE IT MORE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THERE WILL BE BREAKS OF
SUN. REGARDING THE CONVECTION, MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ALREADY
POPPING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND THESE SHOULD INTENSIFY WITH
HEATING. MODELS ALL SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE GFS AND EC CONTINUE TO SHOW A
BAND OF MODERATE SNOW TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE TAHOE BASIN AND
SIERRA FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE NOW IN THIS BAND DEVELOPING AS THE
LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING IT AT THE END OF ITS RUN. LATEST RUNS HAVE
ALSO SHIFTED IT SOUTH AGAIN OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY AND SOUTH LAKE.
ADVISORY ALREADY ISSUED FOR TAHOE AND WILL ADD THE SIERRA FRONT TO
RUN FROM 8 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 10 AM TOMORROW MORNING. OUTSIDE OF
THIS BAND LIGHTER AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES FOR THE SIERRA FRONT AND
UP TO 4 INCHES FOR THE TAHOE BASIN ARE LIKELY. HOWEVER, IN THIS
BAND EXPECT HEAVIER AMOUNTS AS MODEL QPF IS NEAR 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH
IN PLACES. WITH A GOOD DENTRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER PRESENT, IT
COULD ADD UP. WILL GO WITH 3-6 INCHES IN THIS BAND FOR THE SIERRA
FRONT AND 4-8 FOR THE TAHOE BASIN WITH 12+ INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE
7K.

WILL MENTION THE MOST LIKELY PLACES (OR OUR BEST GUESS) FOR
THE HEAVIER BAND. HOWEVER, THE EXACT LOCATION REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE IT COULD BE CENTERED OVER CARSON
CITY OR EVEN TRUCKEE/RENO (LOWEST PROBABILITY FOR THE LATTER).
HOPE TO HAVE ALL UPDATES OUT BY 10 AM. WALLMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

WINTER SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA TODAY AND SATURDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE THE WINTER WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IS GENERATING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTH TODAY, PUSHING A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA AND BRINGING GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL RAPIDLY DROP SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 4000-5000 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT, POSSIBLY REACHING AS LOW AS 3500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS RATHER DISORGANIZED, OUTSIDE OF A DEFORMATION
BAND EXPECTED TO FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THESE BANDS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PINPOINT LOCATIONS, BUT MODEL TRENDS OVER THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS ARE SHOWING THIS BAND DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE I-80
AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE
SNOW SHOWERS BOTH IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, BUT MUCH
LOWER IN THE TOTALS. THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM MEANS THAT
SNOW TOTALS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE.

THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS IS THROUGH THE TAHOE
BASIN WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST, WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES AT LAKE LEVEL. THOSE
LOCATIONS UNDER ANY ORGANIZED BANDS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER END OF
THE TOTALS, WHILE LOCATIONS WITH JUST GENERAL SHOWERS WILL BE ON
THE LOWER END. FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND THE SIERRA FRONT, CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING IN SOME AREAS SEEING SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION,
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN EXACTLY WHERE...AND SOME AREAS MAY
STILL SEE NOTHING. MONO COUNTY IS LIKELY TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS
NORTHEAST, AIDING IN UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. CURRENT FORECAST WOULD
YIELD 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGH SIERRA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES
IN THE REST OF MONO COUNTY. THE BIGGEST THING TO TAKE AWAY IS THAT
TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. BE PREPARED FOR
WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS AND CHECK BOTH WEATHER AND ROAD CONDITIONS
BEFORE TRAVEL.

THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITHIN THE CORE OF THE LOW AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-80 LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN FROM I-80 SOUTH SATURDAY. PELLET SHOWERS AND/OR A WINTRY
MIX IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY IN THE COLD CORE. THE LOW
IS SLOWER TO EXIT THE AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED, WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLY LINGERING IN MONO COUNTY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE NORTHEAST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE BREEZY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER. DJ

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH THE MAIN WEATHER
CONSIDERATION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ANY ADDITIONAL SLIDER ENERGY (AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW SHOWERS) THAT MIGHT MOVE OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA BEHIND THIS WEEKEND`S SYSTEM.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, THE ECMWF, GFS AND GEM ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW
VARYING SOLUTIONS REGARDING A SLIDER-TYPE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE
OVER/NEAR THE REGION. IN FACT, IN THE LAST FEW OPERATIONAL RUNS THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE GONE THE OPPOSITE WAY WITH THE GFS LEANING
FARTHER EAST AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE ECMWF GETTING SLOWER AND
FARTHER WEST (OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA) WITH THE SLIDER. MEANWHILE,
THE GEM SEEMS TO BE IN BETWEEN WITH MANY ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOWING THE
DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN NEVADA OR FAR EASTERN CALIFORNIA.

THE POSITION OF THE SLIDER IS KEY FOR THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, WITH A TRACK NEAR OR WEST
OF THE CREST (BUT STILL EAST OF I-5) IDEAL FOR AN ORGANIZED BAND OF
SNOW. WITH LARGE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE
MONDAY-TUESDAY, I HAVE KEPT THE RUNNING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN PLACE. IN ANY CASE, WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TAP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING COLDER AIR
INTACT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL LOOK DRY AS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING A RIDGE OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
REBOUND TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. SNYDER

AVIATION...

FOR THIS MORNING IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHERN
SIERRA WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCUREMENT TO WESTERN NEVADA
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. NORTH OF KSVE-GERLACH, CIGS LOOK WORSE WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH -SHSN ABV 5-5.5 KFT MSL (AND -SHRASN BLO).

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, CIGS/VIS WORSEN AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA AND WIDESPREAD SNOW AND
RAIN/SNOW BELOW 5,000 FT MSL DEVELOPS. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND ICING
ARE EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA, WITH MVFR (LOCALLY IFR) CIGS INTO
WESTERN NEVADA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
KTRK/KTVL WITH EVEN SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AT KRNO/KCXP (60%
CHANCE) BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR KMMH, THE WORSE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE ON SATURDAY. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST
     SATURDAY NVZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST
     SATURDAY NVZ003.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST
     SATURDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 271711 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
911 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE UPDATE IS TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE SIERRA FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS FOR THE REST OF
TODAY, DID MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO ADD THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-80 THIS AFTERNOON AND REDUCE SOME CLOUD
COVER TO MAKE IT MORE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THERE WILL BE BREAKS OF
SUN. REGARDING THE CONVECTION, MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ALREADY
POPPING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND THESE SHOULD INTENSIFY WITH
HEATING. MODELS ALL SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE GFS AND EC CONTINUE TO SHOW A
BAND OF MODERATE SNOW TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE TAHOE BASIN AND
SIERRA FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE NOW IN THIS BAND DEVELOPING AS THE
LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING IT AT THE END OF ITS RUN. LATEST RUNS HAVE
ALSO SHIFTED IT SOUTH AGAIN OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY AND SOUTH LAKE.
ADVISORY ALREADY ISSUED FOR TAHOE AND WILL ADD THE SIERRA FRONT TO
RUN FROM 8 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 10 AM TOMORROW MORNING. OUTSIDE OF
THIS BAND LIGHTER AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES FOR THE SIERRA FRONT AND
UP TO 4 INCHES FOR THE TAHOE BASIN ARE LIKELY. HOWEVER, IN THIS
BAND EXPECT HEAVIER AMOUNTS AS MODEL QPF IS NEAR 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH
IN PLACES. WITH A GOOD DENTRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER PRESENT, IT
COULD ADD UP. WILL GO WITH 3-6 INCHES IN THIS BAND FOR THE SIERRA
FRONT AND 4-8 FOR THE TAHOE BASIN WITH 12+ INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE
7K.

WILL MENTION THE MOST LIKELY PLACES (OR OUR BEST GUESS) FOR
THE HEAVIER BAND. HOWEVER, THE EXACT LOCATION REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE IT COULD BE CENTERED OVER CARSON
CITY OR EVEN TRUCKEE/RENO (LOWEST PROBABILITY FOR THE LATTER).
HOPE TO HAVE ALL UPDATES OUT BY 10 AM. WALLMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

WINTER SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA TODAY AND SATURDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE THE WINTER WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IS GENERATING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTH TODAY, PUSHING A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA AND BRINGING GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL RAPIDLY DROP SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 4000-5000 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT, POSSIBLY REACHING AS LOW AS 3500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS RATHER DISORGANIZED, OUTSIDE OF A DEFORMATION
BAND EXPECTED TO FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THESE BANDS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PINPOINT LOCATIONS, BUT MODEL TRENDS OVER THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS ARE SHOWING THIS BAND DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE I-80
AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE
SNOW SHOWERS BOTH IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, BUT MUCH
LOWER IN THE TOTALS. THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM MEANS THAT
SNOW TOTALS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE.

THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS IS THROUGH THE TAHOE
BASIN WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST, WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES AT LAKE LEVEL. THOSE
LOCATIONS UNDER ANY ORGANIZED BANDS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER END OF
THE TOTALS, WHILE LOCATIONS WITH JUST GENERAL SHOWERS WILL BE ON
THE LOWER END. FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND THE SIERRA FRONT, CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING IN SOME AREAS SEEING SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION,
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN EXACTLY WHERE...AND SOME AREAS MAY
STILL SEE NOTHING. MONO COUNTY IS LIKELY TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS
NORTHEAST, AIDING IN UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. CURRENT FORECAST WOULD
YIELD 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGH SIERRA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES
IN THE REST OF MONO COUNTY. THE BIGGEST THING TO TAKE AWAY IS THAT
TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. BE PREPARED FOR
WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS AND CHECK BOTH WEATHER AND ROAD CONDITIONS
BEFORE TRAVEL.

THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITHIN THE CORE OF THE LOW AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-80 LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN FROM I-80 SOUTH SATURDAY. PELLET SHOWERS AND/OR A WINTRY
MIX IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY IN THE COLD CORE. THE LOW
IS SLOWER TO EXIT THE AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED, WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLY LINGERING IN MONO COUNTY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE NORTHEAST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE BREEZY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER. DJ

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH THE MAIN WEATHER
CONSIDERATION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ANY ADDITIONAL SLIDER ENERGY (AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW SHOWERS) THAT MIGHT MOVE OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA BEHIND THIS WEEKEND`S SYSTEM.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, THE ECMWF, GFS AND GEM ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW
VARYING SOLUTIONS REGARDING A SLIDER-TYPE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE
OVER/NEAR THE REGION. IN FACT, IN THE LAST FEW OPERATIONAL RUNS THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE GONE THE OPPOSITE WAY WITH THE GFS LEANING
FARTHER EAST AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE ECMWF GETTING SLOWER AND
FARTHER WEST (OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA) WITH THE SLIDER. MEANWHILE,
THE GEM SEEMS TO BE IN BETWEEN WITH MANY ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOWING THE
DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN NEVADA OR FAR EASTERN CALIFORNIA.

THE POSITION OF THE SLIDER IS KEY FOR THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, WITH A TRACK NEAR OR WEST
OF THE CREST (BUT STILL EAST OF I-5) IDEAL FOR AN ORGANIZED BAND OF
SNOW. WITH LARGE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE
MONDAY-TUESDAY, I HAVE KEPT THE RUNNING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN PLACE. IN ANY CASE, WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TAP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING COLDER AIR
INTACT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL LOOK DRY AS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING A RIDGE OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
REBOUND TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. SNYDER

AVIATION...

FOR THIS MORNING IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHERN
SIERRA WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCUREMENT TO WESTERN NEVADA
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. NORTH OF KSVE-GERLACH, CIGS LOOK WORSE WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH -SHSN ABV 5-5.5 KFT MSL (AND -SHRASN BLO).

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, CIGS/VIS WORSEN AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA AND WIDESPREAD SNOW AND
RAIN/SNOW BELOW 5,000 FT MSL DEVELOPS. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND ICING
ARE EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA, WITH MVFR (LOCALLY IFR) CIGS INTO
WESTERN NEVADA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
KTRK/KTVL WITH EVEN SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AT KRNO/KCXP (60%
CHANCE) BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR KMMH, THE WORSE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE ON SATURDAY. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST
     SATURDAY NVZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST
     SATURDAY NVZ003.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST
     SATURDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 271711 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
911 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE UPDATE IS TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE SIERRA FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS FOR THE REST OF
TODAY, DID MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO ADD THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-80 THIS AFTERNOON AND REDUCE SOME CLOUD
COVER TO MAKE IT MORE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THERE WILL BE BREAKS OF
SUN. REGARDING THE CONVECTION, MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ALREADY
POPPING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND THESE SHOULD INTENSIFY WITH
HEATING. MODELS ALL SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE GFS AND EC CONTINUE TO SHOW A
BAND OF MODERATE SNOW TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE TAHOE BASIN AND
SIERRA FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE NOW IN THIS BAND DEVELOPING AS THE
LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING IT AT THE END OF ITS RUN. LATEST RUNS HAVE
ALSO SHIFTED IT SOUTH AGAIN OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY AND SOUTH LAKE.
ADVISORY ALREADY ISSUED FOR TAHOE AND WILL ADD THE SIERRA FRONT TO
RUN FROM 8 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 10 AM TOMORROW MORNING. OUTSIDE OF
THIS BAND LIGHTER AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES FOR THE SIERRA FRONT AND
UP TO 4 INCHES FOR THE TAHOE BASIN ARE LIKELY. HOWEVER, IN THIS
BAND EXPECT HEAVIER AMOUNTS AS MODEL QPF IS NEAR 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH
IN PLACES. WITH A GOOD DENTRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER PRESENT, IT
COULD ADD UP. WILL GO WITH 3-6 INCHES IN THIS BAND FOR THE SIERRA
FRONT AND 4-8 FOR THE TAHOE BASIN WITH 12+ INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE
7K.

WILL MENTION THE MOST LIKELY PLACES (OR OUR BEST GUESS) FOR
THE HEAVIER BAND. HOWEVER, THE EXACT LOCATION REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE IT COULD BE CENTERED OVER CARSON
CITY OR EVEN TRUCKEE/RENO (LOWEST PROBABILITY FOR THE LATTER).
HOPE TO HAVE ALL UPDATES OUT BY 10 AM. WALLMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

WINTER SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA TODAY AND SATURDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE THE WINTER WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IS GENERATING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTH TODAY, PUSHING A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA AND BRINGING GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL RAPIDLY DROP SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 4000-5000 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT, POSSIBLY REACHING AS LOW AS 3500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS RATHER DISORGANIZED, OUTSIDE OF A DEFORMATION
BAND EXPECTED TO FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THESE BANDS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PINPOINT LOCATIONS, BUT MODEL TRENDS OVER THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS ARE SHOWING THIS BAND DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE I-80
AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE
SNOW SHOWERS BOTH IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, BUT MUCH
LOWER IN THE TOTALS. THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM MEANS THAT
SNOW TOTALS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE.

THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS IS THROUGH THE TAHOE
BASIN WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST, WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES AT LAKE LEVEL. THOSE
LOCATIONS UNDER ANY ORGANIZED BANDS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER END OF
THE TOTALS, WHILE LOCATIONS WITH JUST GENERAL SHOWERS WILL BE ON
THE LOWER END. FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND THE SIERRA FRONT, CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING IN SOME AREAS SEEING SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION,
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN EXACTLY WHERE...AND SOME AREAS MAY
STILL SEE NOTHING. MONO COUNTY IS LIKELY TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS
NORTHEAST, AIDING IN UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. CURRENT FORECAST WOULD
YIELD 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGH SIERRA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES
IN THE REST OF MONO COUNTY. THE BIGGEST THING TO TAKE AWAY IS THAT
TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. BE PREPARED FOR
WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS AND CHECK BOTH WEATHER AND ROAD CONDITIONS
BEFORE TRAVEL.

THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITHIN THE CORE OF THE LOW AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-80 LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN FROM I-80 SOUTH SATURDAY. PELLET SHOWERS AND/OR A WINTRY
MIX IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY IN THE COLD CORE. THE LOW
IS SLOWER TO EXIT THE AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED, WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLY LINGERING IN MONO COUNTY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE NORTHEAST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE BREEZY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER. DJ

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH THE MAIN WEATHER
CONSIDERATION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ANY ADDITIONAL SLIDER ENERGY (AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW SHOWERS) THAT MIGHT MOVE OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA BEHIND THIS WEEKEND`S SYSTEM.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, THE ECMWF, GFS AND GEM ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW
VARYING SOLUTIONS REGARDING A SLIDER-TYPE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE
OVER/NEAR THE REGION. IN FACT, IN THE LAST FEW OPERATIONAL RUNS THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE GONE THE OPPOSITE WAY WITH THE GFS LEANING
FARTHER EAST AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE ECMWF GETTING SLOWER AND
FARTHER WEST (OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA) WITH THE SLIDER. MEANWHILE,
THE GEM SEEMS TO BE IN BETWEEN WITH MANY ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOWING THE
DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN NEVADA OR FAR EASTERN CALIFORNIA.

THE POSITION OF THE SLIDER IS KEY FOR THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, WITH A TRACK NEAR OR WEST
OF THE CREST (BUT STILL EAST OF I-5) IDEAL FOR AN ORGANIZED BAND OF
SNOW. WITH LARGE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE
MONDAY-TUESDAY, I HAVE KEPT THE RUNNING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN PLACE. IN ANY CASE, WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TAP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING COLDER AIR
INTACT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL LOOK DRY AS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING A RIDGE OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
REBOUND TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. SNYDER

AVIATION...

FOR THIS MORNING IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHERN
SIERRA WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCUREMENT TO WESTERN NEVADA
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. NORTH OF KSVE-GERLACH, CIGS LOOK WORSE WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH -SHSN ABV 5-5.5 KFT MSL (AND -SHRASN BLO).

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, CIGS/VIS WORSEN AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA AND WIDESPREAD SNOW AND
RAIN/SNOW BELOW 5,000 FT MSL DEVELOPS. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND ICING
ARE EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA, WITH MVFR (LOCALLY IFR) CIGS INTO
WESTERN NEVADA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
KTRK/KTVL WITH EVEN SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AT KRNO/KCXP (60%
CHANCE) BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR KMMH, THE WORSE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE ON SATURDAY. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST
     SATURDAY NVZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST
     SATURDAY NVZ003.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST
     SATURDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 271711 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
911 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE UPDATE IS TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE SIERRA FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS FOR THE REST OF
TODAY, DID MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO ADD THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-80 THIS AFTERNOON AND REDUCE SOME CLOUD
COVER TO MAKE IT MORE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THERE WILL BE BREAKS OF
SUN. REGARDING THE CONVECTION, MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ALREADY
POPPING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND THESE SHOULD INTENSIFY WITH
HEATING. MODELS ALL SHOWING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE GFS AND EC CONTINUE TO SHOW A
BAND OF MODERATE SNOW TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE TAHOE BASIN AND
SIERRA FRONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE NOW IN THIS BAND DEVELOPING AS THE
LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING IT AT THE END OF ITS RUN. LATEST RUNS HAVE
ALSO SHIFTED IT SOUTH AGAIN OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY AND SOUTH LAKE.
ADVISORY ALREADY ISSUED FOR TAHOE AND WILL ADD THE SIERRA FRONT TO
RUN FROM 8 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 10 AM TOMORROW MORNING. OUTSIDE OF
THIS BAND LIGHTER AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES FOR THE SIERRA FRONT AND
UP TO 4 INCHES FOR THE TAHOE BASIN ARE LIKELY. HOWEVER, IN THIS
BAND EXPECT HEAVIER AMOUNTS AS MODEL QPF IS NEAR 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH
IN PLACES. WITH A GOOD DENTRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER PRESENT, IT
COULD ADD UP. WILL GO WITH 3-6 INCHES IN THIS BAND FOR THE SIERRA
FRONT AND 4-8 FOR THE TAHOE BASIN WITH 12+ INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE
7K.

WILL MENTION THE MOST LIKELY PLACES (OR OUR BEST GUESS) FOR
THE HEAVIER BAND. HOWEVER, THE EXACT LOCATION REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE IT COULD BE CENTERED OVER CARSON
CITY OR EVEN TRUCKEE/RENO (LOWEST PROBABILITY FOR THE LATTER).
HOPE TO HAVE ALL UPDATES OUT BY 10 AM. WALLMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

WINTER SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA TODAY AND SATURDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE THE WINTER WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IS GENERATING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTH TODAY, PUSHING A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA AND BRINGING GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL RAPIDLY DROP SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 4000-5000 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT, POSSIBLY REACHING AS LOW AS 3500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS RATHER DISORGANIZED, OUTSIDE OF A DEFORMATION
BAND EXPECTED TO FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THESE BANDS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PINPOINT LOCATIONS, BUT MODEL TRENDS OVER THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS ARE SHOWING THIS BAND DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE I-80
AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE
SNOW SHOWERS BOTH IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, BUT MUCH
LOWER IN THE TOTALS. THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM MEANS THAT
SNOW TOTALS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE.

THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS IS THROUGH THE TAHOE
BASIN WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST, WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES AT LAKE LEVEL. THOSE
LOCATIONS UNDER ANY ORGANIZED BANDS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER END OF
THE TOTALS, WHILE LOCATIONS WITH JUST GENERAL SHOWERS WILL BE ON
THE LOWER END. FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND THE SIERRA FRONT, CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING IN SOME AREAS SEEING SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION,
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN EXACTLY WHERE...AND SOME AREAS MAY
STILL SEE NOTHING. MONO COUNTY IS LIKELY TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS
NORTHEAST, AIDING IN UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. CURRENT FORECAST WOULD
YIELD 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGH SIERRA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES
IN THE REST OF MONO COUNTY. THE BIGGEST THING TO TAKE AWAY IS THAT
TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. BE PREPARED FOR
WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS AND CHECK BOTH WEATHER AND ROAD CONDITIONS
BEFORE TRAVEL.

THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITHIN THE CORE OF THE LOW AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-80 LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN FROM I-80 SOUTH SATURDAY. PELLET SHOWERS AND/OR A WINTRY
MIX IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY IN THE COLD CORE. THE LOW
IS SLOWER TO EXIT THE AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED, WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLY LINGERING IN MONO COUNTY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE NORTHEAST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE BREEZY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER. DJ

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH THE MAIN WEATHER
CONSIDERATION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ANY ADDITIONAL SLIDER ENERGY (AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW SHOWERS) THAT MIGHT MOVE OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA BEHIND THIS WEEKEND`S SYSTEM.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, THE ECMWF, GFS AND GEM ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW
VARYING SOLUTIONS REGARDING A SLIDER-TYPE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE
OVER/NEAR THE REGION. IN FACT, IN THE LAST FEW OPERATIONAL RUNS THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE GONE THE OPPOSITE WAY WITH THE GFS LEANING
FARTHER EAST AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE ECMWF GETTING SLOWER AND
FARTHER WEST (OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA) WITH THE SLIDER. MEANWHILE,
THE GEM SEEMS TO BE IN BETWEEN WITH MANY ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOWING THE
DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN NEVADA OR FAR EASTERN CALIFORNIA.

THE POSITION OF THE SLIDER IS KEY FOR THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, WITH A TRACK NEAR OR WEST
OF THE CREST (BUT STILL EAST OF I-5) IDEAL FOR AN ORGANIZED BAND OF
SNOW. WITH LARGE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE
MONDAY-TUESDAY, I HAVE KEPT THE RUNNING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN PLACE. IN ANY CASE, WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TAP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING COLDER AIR
INTACT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL LOOK DRY AS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING A RIDGE OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
REBOUND TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. SNYDER

AVIATION...

FOR THIS MORNING IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHERN
SIERRA WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCUREMENT TO WESTERN NEVADA
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. NORTH OF KSVE-GERLACH, CIGS LOOK WORSE WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH -SHSN ABV 5-5.5 KFT MSL (AND -SHRASN BLO).

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, CIGS/VIS WORSEN AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA AND WIDESPREAD SNOW AND
RAIN/SNOW BELOW 5,000 FT MSL DEVELOPS. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND ICING
ARE EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA, WITH MVFR (LOCALLY IFR) CIGS INTO
WESTERN NEVADA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
KTRK/KTVL WITH EVEN SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AT KRNO/KCXP (60%
CHANCE) BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR KMMH, THE WORSE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE ON SATURDAY. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST
     SATURDAY NVZ002.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST
     SATURDAY NVZ003.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST
     SATURDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 271124
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
324 AM PST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

WINTER SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA TODAY AND SATURDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE THE WINTER WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IS GENERATING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTH TODAY, PUSHING A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA AND BRINGING GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL RAPIDLY DROP SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 4000-5000 FEET FRIDAY
NIGHT, POSSIBLY REACHING AS LOW AS 3500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS RATHER DISORGANIZED, OUTSIDE OF A DEFORMATION
BAND EXPECTED TO FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THESE BANDS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PINPOINT LOCATIONS, BUT MODEL TRENDS OVER THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS ARE SHOWING THIS BAND DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE I-80
AND HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE
SNOW SHOWERS BOTH IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, BUT MUCH
LOWER IN THE TOTALS. THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM MEANS THAT
SNOW TOTALS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE.

THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOWS IS THROUGH THE TAHOE
BASIN WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST, WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES AT LAKE LEVEL. THOSE
LOCATIONS UNDER ANY ORGANIZED BANDS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER END OF
THE TOTALS, WHILE LOCATIONS WITH JUST GENERAL SHOWERS WILL BE ON
THE LOWER END. FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND THE SIERRA FRONT, CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING IN SOME AREAS SEEING SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION,
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN EXACTLY WHERE...AND SOME AREAS MAY
STILL SEE NOTHING. MONO COUNTY IS LIKELY TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS
NORTHEAST, AIDING IN UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. CURRENT FORECAST WOULD
YIELD 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGH SIERRA WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES
IN THE REST OF MONO COUNTY. THE BIGGEST THING TO TAKE AWAY IS THAT
TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. BE PREPARED FOR
WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS AND CHECK BOTH WEATHER AND ROAD CONDITIONS
BEFORE TRAVEL.

THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITHIN THE CORE OF THE LOW AND THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-80 LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN FROM I-80 SOUTH SATURDAY. PELLET SHOWERS AND/OR A WINTRY
MIX IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY IN THE COLD CORE. THE LOW
IS SLOWER TO EXIT THE AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED, WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLY LINGERING IN MONO COUNTY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE NORTHEAST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE BREEZY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER. DJ

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH THE MAIN WEATHER
CONSIDERATION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ANY ADDITIONAL SLIDER ENERGY (AND
ASSOCIATED SNOW SHOWERS) THAT MIGHT MOVE OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA BEHIND THIS WEEKEND`S SYSTEM.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, THE ECMWF, GFS AND GEM ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW
VARYING SOLUTIONS REGARDING A SLIDER-TYPE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE
OVER/NEAR THE REGION. IN FACT, IN THE LAST FEW OPERATIONAL RUNS THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE GONE THE OPPOSITE WAY WITH THE GFS LEANING
FARTHER EAST AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE ECMWF GETTING SLOWER AND
FARTHER WEST (OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA) WITH THE SLIDER. MEANWHILE,
THE GEM SEEMS TO BE IN BETWEEN WITH MANY ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOWING THE
DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN NEVADA OR FAR EASTERN CALIFORNIA.

THE POSITION OF THE SLIDER IS KEY FOR THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, WITH A TRACK NEAR OR WEST
OF THE CREST (BUT STILL EAST OF I-5) IDEAL FOR AN ORGANIZED BAND OF
SNOW. WITH LARGE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE
MONDAY-TUESDAY, I HAVE KEPT THE RUNNING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN PLACE. IN ANY CASE, WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ON
TAP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPING COLDER AIR
INTACT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY STILL LOOK DRY AS ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING A RIDGE OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
REBOUND TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THIS MORNING IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHERN
SIERRA WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCUREMENT TO WESTERN NEVADA
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. NORTH OF KSVE-GERLACH, CIGS LOOK WORSE WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH -SHSN ABV 5-5.5 KFT MSL (AND -SHRASN BLO).

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, CIGS/VIS WORSEN AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA AND WIDESPREAD SNOW AND
RAIN/SNOW BELOW 5,000 FT MSL DEVELOPS. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND ICING
ARE EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA, WITH MVFR (LOCALLY IFR) CIGS INTO
WESTERN NEVADA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
KTRK/KTVL WITH EVEN SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AT KRNO/KCXP (60%
CHANCE) BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR KMMH, THE WORSE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE ON SATURDAY. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST
     SATURDAY NVZ002.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST
     SATURDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)











000
FXUS65 KREV 270530 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
930 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LOW MAKING DECENT PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACNW. A QUICK LOOK AT LATEST MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THE 00Z GFS AND A NUMBER OF
THE 21Z SREF PLUMES INDICATING A BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP OVER THE
TAHOE BASIN INTO WESTERN NV. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE MAIN DIFFICULTY
RESIDING IN THE LOCATION OF THIS SNOW BAND ACROSS WESTERN NV. THE
SMALL SCALE FORCING COMBINED WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE GOOD
INGREDIENTS FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND MAY REQUIRE A WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINE FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NV. AGAIN, WE WANT TO STRESS THE
VARIABILITY OF SUCH BANDS AND THAT SNOW AMOUNTS CAN VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. SOME MODEL MEMBERS SHOW AS
MUCH AS 5 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE GREATER RENO/CARSON CITY AREAS,
WHILE OTHERS SHOW A DUSTING. BOTTOM LINE, PREPARE FOR HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND CHECK BOTH
WEATHER AND ROAD CONDITIONS BEFORE TRAVEL. HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. THESE
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO COVER ALL OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEVADA. THE SNOW WILL SLOWLY
EXIT SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE AT SNOW POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LOW SET TO DROP ALONG THE COAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
IS APPARENT ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. IT IS THIS FEATURE
THAT IS THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS
OVERALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, BUT
DIFFER ON THE DETAILS AND WITH TIMING TO AN EXTENT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE IS INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON RIGHT
NOW WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THIS WILL SPREAD OVER NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THE OREGON BORDER WITH IT. THEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH FRIDAY INTO OREGON IT WILL PUSH A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AFTER ITS PASSAGE. A THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT FILTERING IN AS WELL, BUT HAVE LEFT
IT OUT FOR NOW. SOME BANDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT
THE EXACT LOCATION DEPENDS ON THE MODEL. OVERALL, THE GFS/EC ARE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST BANDS DEVELOPING NEAR
RENO/TAHOE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE
NAM IS 12 HOURS SLOWER AS IS THE SREF. IT APPEARS THAT THE TAHOE
BASIN WILL AT LEAST SEE SOME SNOW AND HAVE HOISTED A SNOW ADVISORY
FOR LOW END AMOUNTS RIGHT NOW WITH UP TO 1 FOOT ALONG THE CREST
THROUGH SATURDAY. IT COULD BE MORE IF THE BAND DEVELOPS. FOR THE
RENO AREA, THE UNCERTAINTY IS GREATER AND WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS
AN INCH OR LESS. HOWEVER, IF THE BAND FORMS THERE COULD BE 2-4
INCHES ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS IS MODERATE
FOR TAHOE AND LOW EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONO COUNTY MAY ALSO SEE SOME DECENT SNOWS, BUT THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL OCCUR LATER AND MORE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
UPSLOPE NORTHEAST FLOW. GIVEN THAT IT IS FURTHER OUT THERE, WILL
NOT ISSUE ANYTHING AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNDER THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY.

THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY SUNDAY, BUT IT IS SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE HELD ONTO SNOW SHOWERS LONGER INTO SUNDAY AND
ONLY SLOWLY CLEARING MONO COUNTY AS MOIST, NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND WILL
FEEL COLDER WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS. WALLMANN

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

VARIABILITY REMAINS HIGH CONCERNING THIS NEXT SLIDER SYSTEM. THE GFS
TRACKS THE SHORTWAVE RIGHT THROUGH NW NEVADA AND NE CALIFORNIA,
BUT THE ECMWF APPEARS TO TAKE THE TRACK FURTHER WEST ALONG THE WEST
COAST. ONE OF THE BIG PLAYERS AFFECTING THE TRACK OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM IS THE RIDGE ANCHORED AROUND 140W. IF THE RIDGE HOLDS ITS
POSITION FURTHER OFF THE WEST COAST, THEN ANY INCOMING SHORTWAVES
WILL DIVE DOWN THROUGH NV/CA, INCREASING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE REGION. SLIGHT DEVIATIONS FROM RUN TO RUN MAKE IT DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS TIME, BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
FOR NEXT WEEK.
WEISHAHN

AVIATION...
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL
TERMINALS. A WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS, SNOW SHOWERS, ICING, AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR
CIG/VIS THROUGH SATURDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
KTRK/KTVL/KMMH WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AT
KRNO/KCXP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HOON/WEISHAHN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     NVZ002.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 262216
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
216 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. THESE
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO COVER ALL OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE SIERRA WITH LIGHTER
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEVADA. THE SNOW WILL SLOWLY
EXIT SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE AT SNOW POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LOW SET TO DROP ALONG THE COAST FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
IS APPARENT ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. IT IS THIS FEATURE
THAT IS THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS
OVERALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, BUT
DIFFER ON THE DETAILS AND WITH TIMING TO AN EXTENT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE IS INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON RIGHT
NOW WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THIS WILL SPREAD OVER NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THE OREGON BORDER WITH IT. THEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH FRIDAY INTO OREGON IT WILL PUSH A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEREFORE EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AFTER ITS PASSAGE. A THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT FILTERING IN AS WELL, BUT HAVE LEFT
IT OUT FOR NOW. SOME BANDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT
THE EXACT LOCATION DEPENDS ON THE MODEL. OVERALL, THE GFS/EC ARE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST BANDS DEVELOPING NEAR
RENO/TAHOE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE
NAM IS 12 HOURS SLOWER AS IS THE SREF. IT APPEARS THAT THE TAHOE
BASIN WILL AT LEAST SEE SOME SNOW AND HAVE HOISTED A SNOW ADVISORY
FOR LOW END AMOUNTS RIGHT NOW WITH UP TO 1 FOOT ALONG THE CREST
THROUGH SATURDAY. IT COULD BE MORE IF THE BAND DEVELOPS. FOR THE
RENO AREA, THE UNCERTAINTY IS GREATER AND WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS
AN INCH OR LESS. HOWEVER, IF THE BAND FORMS THERE COULD BE 2-4
INCHES ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS IS MODERATE
FOR TAHOE AND LOW EVERYWHERE ELSE.

MONO COUNTY MAY ALSO SEE SOME DECENT SNOWS, BUT THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL OCCUR LATER AND MORE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
UPSLOPE NORTHEAST FLOW. GIVEN THAT IT IS FURTHER OUT THERE, WILL
NOT ISSUE ANYTHING AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNDER THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY.

THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY SUNDAY, BUT IT IS SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE HELD ONTO SNOW SHOWERS LONGER INTO SUNDAY AND
ONLY SLOWLY CLEARING MONO COUNTY AS MOIST, NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND WILL
FEEL COLDER WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

VARIABILITY REMAINS HIGH CONCERNING THIS NEXT SLIDER SYSTEM. THE GFS
TRACKS THE SHORTWAVE RIGHT THROUGH NW NEVADA AND NE CALIFORNIA,
BUT THE ECMWF APPEARS TO TAKE THE TRACK FURTHER WEST ALONG THE WEST
COAST. ONE OF THE BIG PLAYERS AFFECTING THE TRACK OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM IS THE RIDGE ANCHORED AROUND 140W. IF THE RIDGE HOLDS ITS
POSITION FURTHER OFF THE WEST COAST, THEN ANY INCOMING SHORTWAVES
WILL DIVE DOWN THROUGH NV/CA, INCREASING THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE REGION. SLIGHT DEVIATIONS FROM RUN TO RUN MAKE IT DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS TIME, BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
FOR NEXT WEEK.
WEISHAHN

&&

.AVIATION...
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL
TERMINALS. A WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS, SNOW SHOWERS, ICING, AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR
CIG/VIS THROUGH SATURDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
KTRK/KTVL/KMMH WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AT
KRNO/KCXP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HOON/WEISHAHN

&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     NVZ002.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 4 PM PST SATURDAY
     CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 261042
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
242 AM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE-LOVELOCK
LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD SYSTEM WHICH WILL
DROP INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWS POSSIBLE IN THE
SIERRA AND EVEN IN NORTHWEST NEVADA IF CONDITIONS COME TOGETHER.
ANOTHER COLD SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO NORTHERN CA/NV
EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT ECHOS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR, BUT
THIS IS LIKELY JUST VIRGA DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS EVAPORATING
ANY MOISTURE. AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN UP, LIGHT
RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH
OF A SUSANVILLE-LOVELOCK LINE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A COLD SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY,
KICKING UP WESTERLY WINDS AND BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
THIS IS A HYBRID SLIDER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH ORIGINATES IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC, BUT THEN DROPS SOUTH OVER LAND. THEREFORE IT
ALREADY HAS MOISTURE WRAPPED INTO IT, BUT NO STEADY MOISTURE TAP,
MEANING PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE SHOWERY WITH SOME AREAS
RECEIVING MUCH MORE RAIN/SNOW THAN OTHER AREAS.

CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SOME
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE AS A DEFORMATION BAND FORMS SATURDAY, BUT
THESE TYPES OF FEATURES ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO PINPOINT,
ESPECIALLY A FEW DAYS OUT. THE OVERALL MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO
FORM THIS BAND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 SATURDAY, SO HAVE TRENDED
THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION FOR NOW, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW-
MEDIUM IN THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AND CONSEQUENTLY
ALSO SNOW TOTALS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE COLD AIR PUSHING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL QUICKLY DROP TO
THE 4000-5000 FOOT RANGE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY AS LOW AS
3500 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE COLD AND UNSTABLE CORE OF THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE SIERRA AND
NORTHWEST NEVADA ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO PELLET SHOWERS OR
WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES SOUTH,
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
UPSLOPE SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN SIERRA, ESPECIALLY IN
MONO COUNTY. THE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER.

GENERALLY, SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO BE 6 INCHES PLUS FOR THE HIGH
SIERRA, WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE DOWN TO 6000 FEET. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST NEVADA, BUT THIS
AGAIN WILL ALL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE THE SHOWERS SET UP. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IN TOTAL, WHILE
OTHERS MAY NOT ACCUMULATE ANYTHING. THE BIG THING TO KEEP IN MIND
IS IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS FOR FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY BE PREPARED
FOR WINTER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SIERRA. CHECK BACK FOR
THE LATEST DETAILS. DJ


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50. WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION BEFORE THE NEXT SLIDER
HYBRID MOVES DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST.

IF THE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED AROUND 140W NEXT WEEK, IT WILL
CONTINUE TO SEND SHORTWAVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND ALONG
THE WEST COAST AS THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST. THESE TYPE OF HYBRID
SLIDERS ARE TOUGH TO FORECAST, BECAUSE BIG VARIABILITIES CAN
RESULT DUE TO SMALL CHANGES IN THE TRACK.

THIS COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY DOESN`T LOOK LIKE A BIG STORM, AS THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE LOOKS MEAGER IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. ALTHOUGH,
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MODEL TREND OF THE GFS IS DEFINITELY
LOWER HEIGHTS OVER CA/NV MON-TUE, BRINGING LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
IN THE PRECIP/SNOW AMOUNTS NEXT WEEK. STILL, WE WILL SEE RENEWED
CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ALONG WITH HIGH
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOON

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS TODAY. WINTER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS, SNOW
SHOWERS, ICING, AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS THROUGH SATURDAY.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FOR KTRK/KTVL/KMMH WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AT KRNO/KCXP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









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