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000
FXUS65 KREV 270954
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
254 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWED BY WARMER
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINNING
TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING
THIS AFTERNOON, LESS SKY COVER AND BETTER SURFACE HEATING SHOULD AID
IN INCREASED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS WILL BE COINCIDENT
WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, MAINLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LASSEN CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN LASSEN
COUNTY THROUGH NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. MONO, MINERAL AND CHURCHILL
COUNITES WILL ALSO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA WITH LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SIERRA AND FAR
NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A POP-UP SHOWER OR STORM
EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER AIR
BECOMING ESTABLISHED AT MIDLEVELS. MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
80S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH WARMER VALLEYS ACROSS THE BASIN AND
RANGE NEARING THE 90 DEGREE MARK BY FRIDAY. ACROSS THE SIERRA HIGHS
WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE PATTERN WILL BE IN A TRANSITION FROM THE RIDGE FRIDAY TO A
SOMEWHAT DEEP TROUGH BY MONDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS INCREASING INTO SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES. SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY AS H7 WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25
KTS. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN NORTH INTO OREGON, THE FORCING WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONG
AS IT COMES IN NEGATIVELY TILTED. BEHIND THE FRONT, A COUPLE SHORT
WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND KEEP THE SHOWER THREAT GOING AT LEAST
NORTH OF I-80. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE RELAXING TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL BACK CLOSE TO
AVERAGE FOR EARLY JUNE FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME FZFG AROUND KTRK THIS MORNING DISSIPATING AROUND 16Z, BUT
OTHERWISE VFR CONDS EXPECTED TODAY. ONE MORE DAY OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 AND SOUTH OF HWY 50.
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF KMMH ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM
POSSIBLE BEFORE 21Z. ANY STORMS THAT FIRE THURSDAY WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. WALLMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 270954
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
254 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWED BY WARMER
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINNING
TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING
THIS AFTERNOON, LESS SKY COVER AND BETTER SURFACE HEATING SHOULD AID
IN INCREASED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS WILL BE COINCIDENT
WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, MAINLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LASSEN CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN LASSEN
COUNTY THROUGH NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. MONO, MINERAL AND CHURCHILL
COUNITES WILL ALSO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA WITH LOWER TO MID 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SIERRA AND FAR
NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A POP-UP SHOWER OR STORM
EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH WARMING ALOFT AND DRIER AIR
BECOMING ESTABLISHED AT MIDLEVELS. MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
80S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH WARMER VALLEYS ACROSS THE BASIN AND
RANGE NEARING THE 90 DEGREE MARK BY FRIDAY. ACROSS THE SIERRA HIGHS
WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE PATTERN WILL BE IN A TRANSITION FROM THE RIDGE FRIDAY TO A
SOMEWHAT DEEP TROUGH BY MONDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS INCREASING INTO SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES. SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY AS H7 WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25
KTS. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN NORTH INTO OREGON, THE FORCING WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONG
AS IT COMES IN NEGATIVELY TILTED. BEHIND THE FRONT, A COUPLE SHORT
WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH AND KEEP THE SHOWER THREAT GOING AT LEAST
NORTH OF I-80. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE RELAXING TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL BACK CLOSE TO
AVERAGE FOR EARLY JUNE FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME FZFG AROUND KTRK THIS MORNING DISSIPATING AROUND 16Z, BUT
OTHERWISE VFR CONDS EXPECTED TODAY. ONE MORE DAY OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 AND SOUTH OF HWY 50.
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF KMMH ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM
POSSIBLE BEFORE 21Z. ANY STORMS THAT FIRE THURSDAY WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. WALLMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 270336
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
836 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION OVER THE BASIN AND RANGE THIS EVENING IS LINING UP
ALONG A SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERLY
WINDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER FAR WESTERN NV AND NE CA. MEANWHILE
A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FORCING MECHANISMS MAY KEEP CONVECTION
GOING IN THE BASIN AND RANGE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD SIGNAL AND END TO THE STRONGEST CONVECTION...BUT WEAKER
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY A FEW STORMS MAY CONTINUE AS WELL
ON THE TAIL END OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE THAT WENT THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY.

HAVE ADJUSTED THE LOCATION OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A BIT
FOR THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND DECREASED CLOUD COVERAGE OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS FOR THE NIGHT. KTRK IS LIKELY TO SEE FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWED BY WARMER
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE PACNW/NRN ROCKIES WITH A GENERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE REMAINS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES NORTHEAST CA/NORTHERN NV THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS THUS
FAR REMAINED FAIRLY SHALLOW DUE TO THE INCREASE IN FLOW/SHEAR.
HOWEVER, A LONGER DURATION OF SUNSHINE AND SOME INCREASE IN LARGE
SCALE LIFT MAY HELP CELLS DEEPEN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
PRIMARY AREAS FROM LASSEN COUNTY INTO CENTRAL WASHOE COUNTY AND
FROM EASTERN MONO COUNTY TO SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY. STRONGER CELLS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUBSEVERE WITH SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SOUNDING PROFILES BEGIN TO DRY WEDNESDAY WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SIERRA SOUTH OF LAKE
TAHOE AND PERHAPS IN THE LASSEN COUNTY CONVERGENCE ZONE. ON
THURSDAY, INSTABILITY DECREASES FURTHER AS TEMPS ALOFT BEGIN TO
WARM. WE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MONO
COUNTY SIERRA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DOT THE SIERRA WITH QPF FRIDAY,
BUT WE BELIEVE INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR MENTION AS A
RIDGE AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILD OVER THE REGION. THE BIG STORY
WILL BE THE WARMING TREND AS TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 70S
SIERRA AND 80S WESTERN NV VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST
ON SUNDAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THESE TWO DAYS WILL
BE OUR WARMEST DAYS OVERALL WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE. MODELS OVERALL SHOW A TROUGH MOVING
INLAND LATE SUNDAY-MONDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD
TUESDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN EXACT TRACK OF LOW CENTER WITH
THE GFS FARTHER SOUTH AND SHARPER WITH TROUGH. SO CONFIDENCE IS
CONVECTION IS MEDIUM. WE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCES
WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE OREGON-ID BORDERS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
THAT GRADIENTS AND WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY, POSSIBLY IMPACTING
AREA LAKES. HOHMANN

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING, MAINLY IN AREAS OUTSIDE THE TAHOE BASIN AND SIERRA
FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY SITES FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE KMMH
AND BASIN AND RANGE SITES KLOL-KNFL. THERE IS STILL A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT THESE SITES WITH ONLY A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

STORM COVERAGE DECREASES FURTHER WEDNESDAY, LIMITED MAINLY TO THE
EASTERN SIERRA SOUTH OF KMEV. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM AROUND KTRK
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 16Z. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 270336
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
836 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION OVER THE BASIN AND RANGE THIS EVENING IS LINING UP
ALONG A SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERLY
WINDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER FAR WESTERN NV AND NE CA. MEANWHILE
A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FORCING MECHANISMS MAY KEEP CONVECTION
GOING IN THE BASIN AND RANGE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD SIGNAL AND END TO THE STRONGEST CONVECTION...BUT WEAKER
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY A FEW STORMS MAY CONTINUE AS WELL
ON THE TAIL END OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE THAT WENT THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY.

HAVE ADJUSTED THE LOCATION OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A BIT
FOR THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND DECREASED CLOUD COVERAGE OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS FOR THE NIGHT. KTRK IS LIKELY TO SEE FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWED BY WARMER
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE PACNW/NRN ROCKIES WITH A GENERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE REMAINS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES NORTHEAST CA/NORTHERN NV THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS THUS
FAR REMAINED FAIRLY SHALLOW DUE TO THE INCREASE IN FLOW/SHEAR.
HOWEVER, A LONGER DURATION OF SUNSHINE AND SOME INCREASE IN LARGE
SCALE LIFT MAY HELP CELLS DEEPEN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
PRIMARY AREAS FROM LASSEN COUNTY INTO CENTRAL WASHOE COUNTY AND
FROM EASTERN MONO COUNTY TO SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY. STRONGER CELLS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUBSEVERE WITH SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SOUNDING PROFILES BEGIN TO DRY WEDNESDAY WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SIERRA SOUTH OF LAKE
TAHOE AND PERHAPS IN THE LASSEN COUNTY CONVERGENCE ZONE. ON
THURSDAY, INSTABILITY DECREASES FURTHER AS TEMPS ALOFT BEGIN TO
WARM. WE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MONO
COUNTY SIERRA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DOT THE SIERRA WITH QPF FRIDAY,
BUT WE BELIEVE INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR MENTION AS A
RIDGE AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILD OVER THE REGION. THE BIG STORY
WILL BE THE WARMING TREND AS TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 70S
SIERRA AND 80S WESTERN NV VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST
ON SUNDAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THESE TWO DAYS WILL
BE OUR WARMEST DAYS OVERALL WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE. MODELS OVERALL SHOW A TROUGH MOVING
INLAND LATE SUNDAY-MONDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD
TUESDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN EXACT TRACK OF LOW CENTER WITH
THE GFS FARTHER SOUTH AND SHARPER WITH TROUGH. SO CONFIDENCE IS
CONVECTION IS MEDIUM. WE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCES
WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE OREGON-ID BORDERS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
THAT GRADIENTS AND WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY, POSSIBLY IMPACTING
AREA LAKES. HOHMANN

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING, MAINLY IN AREAS OUTSIDE THE TAHOE BASIN AND SIERRA
FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY SITES FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE KMMH
AND BASIN AND RANGE SITES KLOL-KNFL. THERE IS STILL A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT THESE SITES WITH ONLY A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

STORM COVERAGE DECREASES FURTHER WEDNESDAY, LIMITED MAINLY TO THE
EASTERN SIERRA SOUTH OF KMEV. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM AROUND KTRK
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 16Z. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 270336
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
836 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION OVER THE BASIN AND RANGE THIS EVENING IS LINING UP
ALONG A SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERLY
WINDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER FAR WESTERN NV AND NE CA. MEANWHILE
A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FORCING MECHANISMS MAY KEEP CONVECTION
GOING IN THE BASIN AND RANGE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD SIGNAL AND END TO THE STRONGEST CONVECTION...BUT WEAKER
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY A FEW STORMS MAY CONTINUE AS WELL
ON THE TAIL END OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE THAT WENT THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY.

HAVE ADJUSTED THE LOCATION OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A BIT
FOR THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND DECREASED CLOUD COVERAGE OVER FAR
WESTERN AREAS FOR THE NIGHT. KTRK IS LIKELY TO SEE FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWED BY WARMER
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE PACNW/NRN ROCKIES WITH A GENERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE REMAINS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES NORTHEAST CA/NORTHERN NV THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS THUS
FAR REMAINED FAIRLY SHALLOW DUE TO THE INCREASE IN FLOW/SHEAR.
HOWEVER, A LONGER DURATION OF SUNSHINE AND SOME INCREASE IN LARGE
SCALE LIFT MAY HELP CELLS DEEPEN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
PRIMARY AREAS FROM LASSEN COUNTY INTO CENTRAL WASHOE COUNTY AND
FROM EASTERN MONO COUNTY TO SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY. STRONGER CELLS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUBSEVERE WITH SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SOUNDING PROFILES BEGIN TO DRY WEDNESDAY WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SIERRA SOUTH OF LAKE
TAHOE AND PERHAPS IN THE LASSEN COUNTY CONVERGENCE ZONE. ON
THURSDAY, INSTABILITY DECREASES FURTHER AS TEMPS ALOFT BEGIN TO
WARM. WE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MONO
COUNTY SIERRA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DOT THE SIERRA WITH QPF FRIDAY,
BUT WE BELIEVE INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR MENTION AS A
RIDGE AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILD OVER THE REGION. THE BIG STORY
WILL BE THE WARMING TREND AS TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 70S
SIERRA AND 80S WESTERN NV VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST
ON SUNDAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THESE TWO DAYS WILL
BE OUR WARMEST DAYS OVERALL WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE. MODELS OVERALL SHOW A TROUGH MOVING
INLAND LATE SUNDAY-MONDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD
TUESDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN EXACT TRACK OF LOW CENTER WITH
THE GFS FARTHER SOUTH AND SHARPER WITH TROUGH. SO CONFIDENCE IS
CONVECTION IS MEDIUM. WE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCES
WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE OREGON-ID BORDERS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
THAT GRADIENTS AND WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY, POSSIBLY IMPACTING
AREA LAKES. HOHMANN

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING, MAINLY IN AREAS OUTSIDE THE TAHOE BASIN AND SIERRA
FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY SITES FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE KMMH
AND BASIN AND RANGE SITES KLOL-KNFL. THERE IS STILL A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT THESE SITES WITH ONLY A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

STORM COVERAGE DECREASES FURTHER WEDNESDAY, LIMITED MAINLY TO THE
EASTERN SIERRA SOUTH OF KMEV. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM AROUND KTRK
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 16Z. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 262122
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
222 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWED BY WARMER
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE PACNW/NRN ROCKIES WITH A GENERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE REMAINS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES NORTHEAST CA/NORTHERN NV THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS THUS
FAR REMAINED FAIRLY SHALLOW DUE TO THE INCREASE IN FLOW/SHEAR.
HOWEVER, A LONGER DURATION OF SUNSHINE AND SOME INCREASE IN LARGE
SCALE LIFT MAY HELP CELLS DEEPEN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
PRIMARY AREAS FROM LASSEN COUNTY INTO CENTRAL WASHOE COUNTY AND
FROM EASTERN MONO COUNTY TO SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY. STRONGER CELLS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUBSEVERE WITH SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SOUNDING PROFILES BEGIN TO DRY WEDNESDAY WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SIERRA SOUTH OF LAKE
TAHOE AND PERHAPS IN THE LASSEN COUNTY CONVERGENCE ZONE. ON
THURSDAY, INSTABILITY DECREASES FURTHER AS TEMPS ALOFT BEGIN TO
WARM. WE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MONO
COUNTY SIERRA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DOT THE SIERRA WITH QPF FRIDAY,
BUT WE BELIEVE INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR MENTION AS A
RIDGE AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILD OVER THE REGION. THE BIG STORY
WILL BE THE WARMING TREND AS TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 70S
SIERRA AND 80S WESTERN NV VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST
ON SUNDAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THESE TWO DAYS WILL
BE OUR WARMEST DAYS OVERALL WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE. MODELS OVERALL SHOW A TROUGH MOVING
INLAND LATE SUNDAY-MONDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD
TUESDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN EXACT TRACK OF LOW CENTER WITH
THE GFS FARTHER SOUTH AND SHARPER WITH TROUGH. SO CONFIDENCE IS
CONVECTION IS MEDIUM. WE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCES
WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE OREGON-ID BORDERS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
THAT GRADIENTS AND WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY, POSSIBLY IMPACTING
AREA LAKES. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING, MAINLY IN AREAS OUTSIDE THE TAHOE BASIN AND SIERRA
FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY SITES FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE KMMH
AND BASIN AND RANGE SITES KLOL-KNFL. THERE IS STILL A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT THESE SITES WITH ONLY A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

STORM COVERAGE DECREASES FURTHER WEDNESDAY, LIMITED MAINLY TO THE
EASTERN SIERRA SOUTH OF KMEV. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM AROUND KTRK
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 16Z. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 262122
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
222 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWED BY WARMER
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE PACNW/NRN ROCKIES WITH A GENERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE REMAINS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE
BRUSHES NORTHEAST CA/NORTHERN NV THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS THUS
FAR REMAINED FAIRLY SHALLOW DUE TO THE INCREASE IN FLOW/SHEAR.
HOWEVER, A LONGER DURATION OF SUNSHINE AND SOME INCREASE IN LARGE
SCALE LIFT MAY HELP CELLS DEEPEN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
PRIMARY AREAS FROM LASSEN COUNTY INTO CENTRAL WASHOE COUNTY AND
FROM EASTERN MONO COUNTY TO SOUTHERN LYON COUNTY. STRONGER CELLS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUBSEVERE WITH SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SOUNDING PROFILES BEGIN TO DRY WEDNESDAY WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SIERRA SOUTH OF LAKE
TAHOE AND PERHAPS IN THE LASSEN COUNTY CONVERGENCE ZONE. ON
THURSDAY, INSTABILITY DECREASES FURTHER AS TEMPS ALOFT BEGIN TO
WARM. WE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MONO
COUNTY SIERRA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DOT THE SIERRA WITH QPF FRIDAY,
BUT WE BELIEVE INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR MENTION AS A
RIDGE AND WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILD OVER THE REGION. THE BIG STORY
WILL BE THE WARMING TREND AS TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 70S
SIERRA AND 80S WESTERN NV VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST
ON SUNDAY AS TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THESE TWO DAYS WILL
BE OUR WARMEST DAYS OVERALL WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE. MODELS OVERALL SHOW A TROUGH MOVING
INLAND LATE SUNDAY-MONDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD
TUESDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN EXACT TRACK OF LOW CENTER WITH
THE GFS FARTHER SOUTH AND SHARPER WITH TROUGH. SO CONFIDENCE IS
CONVECTION IS MEDIUM. WE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCES
WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE OREGON-ID BORDERS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
THAT GRADIENTS AND WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY, POSSIBLY IMPACTING
AREA LAKES. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING, MAINLY IN AREAS OUTSIDE THE TAHOE BASIN AND SIERRA
FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY SITES FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE KMMH
AND BASIN AND RANGE SITES KLOL-KNFL. THERE IS STILL A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT THESE SITES WITH ONLY A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE ELSEWHERE.

STORM COVERAGE DECREASES FURTHER WEDNESDAY, LIMITED MAINLY TO THE
EASTERN SIERRA SOUTH OF KMEV. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM AROUND KTRK
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 16Z. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 261614 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
914 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
LATEST MODEL DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW. SHORTWAVE WILL
TRACK INTO NORTHEAST CA/NORTHERN NV THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
LIKELY ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THERE REMAINS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SO WE HAVE
BUMPED POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN SIERRA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE SAME TYPES OF
WEATHER FROM THESE STORMS AS OUTLINED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL KEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND FOR MAINLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING COVERAGE
THURSDAY. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD LEAVING ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO
PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. THE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS TODAY AS COMPARED WITH
YESTERDAY MAINLY DUE TO LESS SHORTWAVE FORCING AND ALSO THE
INTRODUCTION OF DRIER AIR ALOFT. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
WILL EXIST ACROSS AREAS WITH BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE SUCH
AS NORTHERN LASSEN COUNTY, MONO, ALPINE, AND SOUTHERN LYON
COUNTIES. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE TAHOE BASIN
BUT OVERALL STILL COULD STILL SEE BRIEF DOWNPOURS, CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR 45 MPH, AND SMALL HAIL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NEVADA ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE NORTHWEST BREEZES AND ADDITIONAL DRY
AIR ALOFT. MOST SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT
SOUTH ACROSS MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY REMAINS AHEAD OF SWATH OF LOWER HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWER 80S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA BY THURSDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE
FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
IS EXPECTED ACROSS MONO COUNTY BY THURSDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. FUENTES

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A RIDGE FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY THAT PUSHES
EAST WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT, DO NOT
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME FOR FRI/SAT. HOWEVER, TEMPS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND THE WARMEST OF THE YEAR THUS FAR.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FRIDAY WITH AN AFTERNOON ZEPHYR SATURDAY.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, GFS AND EC BOTH SHOW A NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM
MOVING INTO OREGON. MUCH OF THE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH IT IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST INTO OREGON. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER, BUT HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE. WALLMANN

AVIATION...
FG ALREADY NEAR KTRK THIS MORNING AND WILL BE THICK WITH BURNOFF
AROUND 17Z. DO NOT EXPECT FG AT OTHER TERMINALS THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 20 PCT CHANCE AT KCXP/KRNO/KLOL BETWEEN 12 AND
15Z.

OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH ISOLD -TSRA SOUTH OF HWY
50 AND NORTH OF I-80. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FOR AREA
TERMINALS. -TSRA TO END BY 03Z TONIGHT WITH ONLY CHC OF FG NEAR KTRK
AGAIN TONIGHT. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 261614 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
914 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
LATEST MODEL DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW. SHORTWAVE WILL
TRACK INTO NORTHEAST CA/NORTHERN NV THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
LIKELY ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THERE REMAINS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SO WE HAVE
BUMPED POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN SIERRA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING THE SAME TYPES OF
WEATHER FROM THESE STORMS AS OUTLINED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
HOHMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL KEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND FOR MAINLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING COVERAGE
THURSDAY. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD LEAVING ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO
PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. THE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS TODAY AS COMPARED WITH
YESTERDAY MAINLY DUE TO LESS SHORTWAVE FORCING AND ALSO THE
INTRODUCTION OF DRIER AIR ALOFT. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
WILL EXIST ACROSS AREAS WITH BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE SUCH
AS NORTHERN LASSEN COUNTY, MONO, ALPINE, AND SOUTHERN LYON
COUNTIES. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE TAHOE BASIN
BUT OVERALL STILL COULD STILL SEE BRIEF DOWNPOURS, CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR 45 MPH, AND SMALL HAIL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NEVADA ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE NORTHWEST BREEZES AND ADDITIONAL DRY
AIR ALOFT. MOST SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT
SOUTH ACROSS MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY REMAINS AHEAD OF SWATH OF LOWER HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWER 80S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA BY THURSDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE
FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
IS EXPECTED ACROSS MONO COUNTY BY THURSDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. FUENTES

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A RIDGE FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY THAT PUSHES
EAST WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT, DO NOT
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME FOR FRI/SAT. HOWEVER, TEMPS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND THE WARMEST OF THE YEAR THUS FAR.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FRIDAY WITH AN AFTERNOON ZEPHYR SATURDAY.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, GFS AND EC BOTH SHOW A NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM
MOVING INTO OREGON. MUCH OF THE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH IT IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST INTO OREGON. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER, BUT HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE. WALLMANN

AVIATION...
FG ALREADY NEAR KTRK THIS MORNING AND WILL BE THICK WITH BURNOFF
AROUND 17Z. DO NOT EXPECT FG AT OTHER TERMINALS THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 20 PCT CHANCE AT KCXP/KRNO/KLOL BETWEEN 12 AND
15Z.

OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH ISOLD -TSRA SOUTH OF HWY
50 AND NORTH OF I-80. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FOR AREA
TERMINALS. -TSRA TO END BY 03Z TONIGHT WITH ONLY CHC OF FG NEAR KTRK
AGAIN TONIGHT. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 260940
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
240 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL KEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND FOR MAINLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING COVERAGE
THURSDAY. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD LEAVING ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO
PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. THE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS TODAY AS COMPARED WITH
YESTERDAY MAINLY DUE TO LESS SHORTWAVE FORCING AND ALSO THE
INTRODUCTION OF DRIER AIR ALOFT. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
WILL EXIST ACROSS AREAS WITH BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE SUCH
AS NORTHERN LASSEN COUNTY, MONO, ALPINE, AND SOUTHERN LYON
COUNTIES. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE TAHOE BASIN
BUT OVERALL STILL COULD STILL SEE BRIEF DOWNPOURS, CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR 45 MPH, AND SMALL HAIL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NEVADA ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE NORTHWEST BREEZES AND ADDITIONAL DRY
AIR ALOFT. MOST SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT
SOUTH ACROSS MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY REMAINS AHEAD OF SWATH OF LOWER HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWER 80S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA BY THURSDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE
FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
IS EXPECTED ACROSS MONO COUNTY BY THURSDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. FUENTES

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A RIDGE FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY THAT PUSHES
EAST WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT, DO NOT
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME FOR FRI/SAT. HOWEVER, TEMPS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND THE WARMEST OF THE YEAR THUS FAR.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FRIDAY WITH AN AFTERNOON ZEPHYR SATURDAY.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, GFS AND EC BOTH SHOW A NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM
MOVING INTO OREGON. MUCH OF THE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH IT IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST INTO OREGON. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER, BUT HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
FG ALREADY NEAR KTRK THIS MORNING AND WILL BE THICK WITH BURNOFF
AROUND 17Z. DO NOT EXPECT FG AT OTHER TERMINALS THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 20 PCT CHANCE AT KCXP/KRNO/KLOL BETWEEN 12 AND
15Z.

OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH ISOLD -TSRA SOUTH OF HWY
50 AND NORTH OF I-80. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FOR AREA
TERMINALS. -TSRA TO END BY 03Z TONIGHT WITH ONLY CHC OF FG NEAR KTRK
AGAIN TONIGHT. WALLMANN


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 260940
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
240 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL KEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND FOR MAINLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING COVERAGE
THURSDAY. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD LEAVING ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO
PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. THE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS TODAY AS COMPARED WITH
YESTERDAY MAINLY DUE TO LESS SHORTWAVE FORCING AND ALSO THE
INTRODUCTION OF DRIER AIR ALOFT. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
WILL EXIST ACROSS AREAS WITH BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE SUCH
AS NORTHERN LASSEN COUNTY, MONO, ALPINE, AND SOUTHERN LYON
COUNTIES. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE TAHOE BASIN
BUT OVERALL STILL COULD STILL SEE BRIEF DOWNPOURS, CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR 45 MPH, AND SMALL HAIL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NEVADA ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE NORTHWEST BREEZES AND ADDITIONAL DRY
AIR ALOFT. MOST SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT
SOUTH ACROSS MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY REMAINS AHEAD OF SWATH OF LOWER HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWER 80S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA BY THURSDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE
FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
IS EXPECTED ACROSS MONO COUNTY BY THURSDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. FUENTES

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A RIDGE FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY THAT PUSHES
EAST WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT, DO NOT
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME FOR FRI/SAT. HOWEVER, TEMPS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND THE WARMEST OF THE YEAR THUS FAR.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FRIDAY WITH AN AFTERNOON ZEPHYR SATURDAY.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, GFS AND EC BOTH SHOW A NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM
MOVING INTO OREGON. MUCH OF THE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH IT IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST INTO OREGON. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER, BUT HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
FG ALREADY NEAR KTRK THIS MORNING AND WILL BE THICK WITH BURNOFF
AROUND 17Z. DO NOT EXPECT FG AT OTHER TERMINALS THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 20 PCT CHANCE AT KCXP/KRNO/KLOL BETWEEN 12 AND
15Z.

OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH ISOLD -TSRA SOUTH OF HWY
50 AND NORTH OF I-80. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FOR AREA
TERMINALS. -TSRA TO END BY 03Z TONIGHT WITH ONLY CHC OF FG NEAR KTRK
AGAIN TONIGHT. WALLMANN


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 260940
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
240 AM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL KEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND FOR MAINLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING COVERAGE
THURSDAY. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD LEAVING ENOUGH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO
PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DECREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. THE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS TODAY AS COMPARED WITH
YESTERDAY MAINLY DUE TO LESS SHORTWAVE FORCING AND ALSO THE
INTRODUCTION OF DRIER AIR ALOFT. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
WILL EXIST ACROSS AREAS WITH BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE SUCH
AS NORTHERN LASSEN COUNTY, MONO, ALPINE, AND SOUTHERN LYON
COUNTIES. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE TAHOE BASIN
BUT OVERALL STILL COULD STILL SEE BRIEF DOWNPOURS, CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR 45 MPH, AND SMALL HAIL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NEVADA ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE NORTHWEST BREEZES AND ADDITIONAL DRY
AIR ALOFT. MOST SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT
SOUTH ACROSS MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY REMAINS AHEAD OF SWATH OF LOWER HUMIDITY. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWER 80S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA BY THURSDAY WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE
FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
IS EXPECTED ACROSS MONO COUNTY BY THURSDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. FUENTES

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A RIDGE FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY THAT PUSHES
EAST WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC COAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT, DO NOT
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME FOR FRI/SAT. HOWEVER, TEMPS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND THE WARMEST OF THE YEAR THUS FAR.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FRIDAY WITH AN AFTERNOON ZEPHYR SATURDAY.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, GFS AND EC BOTH SHOW A NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM
MOVING INTO OREGON. MUCH OF THE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH IT IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST INTO OREGON. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER, BUT HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
FG ALREADY NEAR KTRK THIS MORNING AND WILL BE THICK WITH BURNOFF
AROUND 17Z. DO NOT EXPECT FG AT OTHER TERMINALS THIS MORNING
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 20 PCT CHANCE AT KCXP/KRNO/KLOL BETWEEN 12 AND
15Z.

OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH ISOLD -TSRA SOUTH OF HWY
50 AND NORTH OF I-80. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY STORMS FOR AREA
TERMINALS. -TSRA TO END BY 03Z TONIGHT WITH ONLY CHC OF FG NEAR KTRK
AGAIN TONIGHT. WALLMANN


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 260325
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
825 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED A GREAT DEAL OVER THE CWA THIS
EVENING BUT THERE REMAINS A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN LASSEN COUNTY. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH TWO FEATURES. THE FIRST IS A TRAPPED SFC
BOUNDARY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR AND THE SECOND IS A SHORT
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRIMARY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVED INTO OREGON EARLIER TODAY. AS THIS SHORT
WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST IT IS NOW STARTING TO PUSH THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS NOT
UNREALISTIC TO THINK THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN MORE
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA THIS EVENING.
THUS...WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TO RECONFIGURE THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NRN CWA AND THE BASIN AND RANGE
THIS EVENING.

ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY TO TO BE VERY STRONG.
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WE MAY SEE MORE ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. STILL...THE AIRMASS IS MOIST ENOUGH TO GET
SOME PCPN TO THE GROUND EVEN IF THE CONVECTION IS NOT ROOTED IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. UPDATES OUT SOON. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL KEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND FOR
MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING
COVERAGE THURSDAY. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY
THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.

SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE PACNW INTO NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV. CONVECTION WAS FIRING
ALONG LASSEN COUNTY CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS NORTHERN SIERRA WITH
MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. LARGE SCALE FORCING
AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. STORMS WERE ALREADY QUITE STRONG OVER
LASSEN AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FORCING ALONG THE
SIERRA FRONT (EAST OF RENO- CARSON CITY) IS ALSO EXPECTED AS
CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE AFTERNOON ZEPHYR. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, FOCUSING MORE ACROSS THE BASIN AND
RANGE AS SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. SOME MODELS KEEP SHOWERS GOING
THERE INTO THE EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

OTHERWISE, INSTABILITY WILL HANG AROUND TUE-WED AND THEN FINALLY
BEGIN TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AS TROUGH SLIDES EAST IN ADVANCE OF
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST. WE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
MOST AREAS TUE-WED AND THE SIERRA OF MONO COUNTY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP A WELL WITH READINGS RETURNING
TO THE 70S SIERRA AND 80S WESTERN NV BY THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES. READINGS WILL PUSH 90 DEGREES FOR THE BASIN
AND RANGE WITH MID 70S AND 80S ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE SIERRA OF MONO
COUNTY. HOWEVER, MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE WARM AIR ALOFT AND
LIMITED MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH ONLY SOME GHOST POPS FOR THE SIERRA.

FOR SUN-MON...RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST OF AREA AS TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST SUN AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MON.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE NORTH OF AREA
ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CA/NV,
INCREASING WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE THE BIGGEST THREATS. UPPER JET
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NV LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY(INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT) AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE/THERMAL GRADIENTS WILL COMBINE
TO PUSH GUSTS CLOSE TO 40 MPH BASED ON CURRENT MODEL DATA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVERALL DURING THIS PERIOD IS MEDIUM. HOHMANN

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING OFF THE TAHOE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL
AFFECT KRNO/KCXP (STRONGEST STORMS EAST OF KRNO/KCXP) THROUGH
25/23Z AND THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA INTO THE BASIN AND RANGE
FOR THIS EVENING. ISOLATED COVERAGE AROUND KNFL/KLOL WILL INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND THUS WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED AND
GENERALLY UNDER 40KT. SOME SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH
STRONGER STORMS ALTHOUGH VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGEST
POTENTIAL. FOR KTVL/KTRK/KMMH...THE STORM THREAT WILL BE MOVING
OUT OF THESE AREAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 260325
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
825 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED A GREAT DEAL OVER THE CWA THIS
EVENING BUT THERE REMAINS A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN LASSEN COUNTY. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH TWO FEATURES. THE FIRST IS A TRAPPED SFC
BOUNDARY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR AND THE SECOND IS A SHORT
WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRIMARY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVED INTO OREGON EARLIER TODAY. AS THIS SHORT
WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST IT IS NOW STARTING TO PUSH THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS NOT
UNREALISTIC TO THINK THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN MORE
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA THIS EVENING.
THUS...WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS TO RECONFIGURE THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NRN CWA AND THE BASIN AND RANGE
THIS EVENING.

ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY TO TO BE VERY STRONG.
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WE MAY SEE MORE ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. STILL...THE AIRMASS IS MOIST ENOUGH TO GET
SOME PCPN TO THE GROUND EVEN IF THE CONVECTION IS NOT ROOTED IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. UPDATES OUT SOON. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL KEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND FOR
MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING
COVERAGE THURSDAY. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY
THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.

SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE PACNW INTO NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV. CONVECTION WAS FIRING
ALONG LASSEN COUNTY CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS NORTHERN SIERRA WITH
MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. LARGE SCALE FORCING
AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. STORMS WERE ALREADY QUITE STRONG OVER
LASSEN AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FORCING ALONG THE
SIERRA FRONT (EAST OF RENO- CARSON CITY) IS ALSO EXPECTED AS
CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE AFTERNOON ZEPHYR. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, FOCUSING MORE ACROSS THE BASIN AND
RANGE AS SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. SOME MODELS KEEP SHOWERS GOING
THERE INTO THE EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

OTHERWISE, INSTABILITY WILL HANG AROUND TUE-WED AND THEN FINALLY
BEGIN TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AS TROUGH SLIDES EAST IN ADVANCE OF
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST. WE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
MOST AREAS TUE-WED AND THE SIERRA OF MONO COUNTY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP A WELL WITH READINGS RETURNING
TO THE 70S SIERRA AND 80S WESTERN NV BY THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES. READINGS WILL PUSH 90 DEGREES FOR THE BASIN
AND RANGE WITH MID 70S AND 80S ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE SIERRA OF MONO
COUNTY. HOWEVER, MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE WARM AIR ALOFT AND
LIMITED MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH ONLY SOME GHOST POPS FOR THE SIERRA.

FOR SUN-MON...RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST OF AREA AS TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST SUN AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MON.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE NORTH OF AREA
ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CA/NV,
INCREASING WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE THE BIGGEST THREATS. UPPER JET
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NV LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY(INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT) AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE/THERMAL GRADIENTS WILL COMBINE
TO PUSH GUSTS CLOSE TO 40 MPH BASED ON CURRENT MODEL DATA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVERALL DURING THIS PERIOD IS MEDIUM. HOHMANN

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING OFF THE TAHOE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL
AFFECT KRNO/KCXP (STRONGEST STORMS EAST OF KRNO/KCXP) THROUGH
25/23Z AND THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA INTO THE BASIN AND RANGE
FOR THIS EVENING. ISOLATED COVERAGE AROUND KNFL/KLOL WILL INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND THUS WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED AND
GENERALLY UNDER 40KT. SOME SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH
STRONGER STORMS ALTHOUGH VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGEST
POTENTIAL. FOR KTVL/KTRK/KMMH...THE STORM THREAT WILL BE MOVING
OUT OF THESE AREAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 252115
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
215 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL KEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY AROUND FOR
MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DECREASING
COVERAGE THURSDAY. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY
THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE PACNW INTO NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV. CONVECTION WAS FIRING
ALONG LASSEN COUNTY CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS NORTHERN SIERRA WITH
MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. LARGE SCALE FORCING
AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. STORMS WERE ALREADY QUITE STRONG OVER
LASSEN AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL FORCING ALONG THE
SIERRA FRONT (EAST OF RENO- CARSON CITY) IS ALSO EXPECTED AS
CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE AFTERNOON ZEPHYR. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, FOCUSING MORE ACROSS THE BASIN AND
RANGE AS SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. SOME MODELS KEEP SHOWERS GOING
THERE INTO THE EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

OTHERWISE, INSTABILITY WILL HANG AROUND TUE-WED AND THEN FINALLY
BEGIN TO DRY OUT THURSDAY AS TROUGH SLIDES EAST IN ADVANCE OF
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST. WE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE
MOST AREAS TUE-WED AND THE SIERRA OF MONO COUNTY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP A WELL WITH READINGS RETURNING
TO THE 70S SIERRA AND 80S WESTERN NV BY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES. READINGS WILL PUSH 90 DEGREES FOR THE BASIN
AND RANGE WITH MID 70S AND 80S ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE SIERRA OF MONO
COUNTY. HOWEVER, MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE WARM AIR ALOFT AND
LIMITED MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH ONLY SOME GHOST POPS FOR THE SIERRA.

FOR SUN-MON...RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST OF AREA AS TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST SUN AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MON.
MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE NORTH OF AREA
ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CA/NV,
INCREASING WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE THE BIGGEST THREATS. UPPER JET
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NV LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY(INCREASING
WINDS ALOFT) AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE/THERMAL GRADIENTS WILL COMBINE
TO PUSH GUSTS CLOSE TO 40 MPH BASED ON CURRENT MODEL DATA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVERALL DURING THIS PERIOD IS MEDIUM. HOHMANN

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING OFF THE TAHOE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL
AFFECT KRNO/KCXP (STRONGEST STORMS EAST OF KRNO/KCXP) THROUGH
25/23Z AND THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA INTO THE BASIN AND RANGE
FOR THIS EVENING. ISOLATED COVERAGE AROUND KNFL/KLOL WILL INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND THUS WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED AND
GENERALLY UNDER 40KT. SOME SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH
STRONGER STORMS ALTHOUGH VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGEST
POTENTIAL. FOR KTVL/KTRK/KMMH...THE STORM THREAT WILL BE MOVING
OUT OF THESE AREAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 251343
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
643 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER HELPED KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD IN WESTERN
NEVADA AND INTO MONO COUNTY. THEREFORE FOG HAS NOT DEVELOPED THERE
AND HAVE REMOVED FROM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, FOG HAS DEVELOPED
AROUND THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH INTO THE LASSEN COUNTY VALLEYS. THIS
FOG IS QUITE DENSE AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS BEFORE
BURNING OFF. WALLMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SOME CLEARER AREAS DEVELOPING FOG. TRUCKEE AND SOUTH
LAKE TAHOE AIRPORTS HAVE REPORTED VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE
AND EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CIRCULATE AROUND
THE BASE OF A CLOSED LOW ACROSS WASHINGTON STATE. THIS WILL HELP
FIRE OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL EXIST
ROUGHLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH, BUT CHANCES REMAIN GOOD
ALL ALONG THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL MOVE
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY OFF THE SIERRA WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
SHIFTING ROUGHLY EAST OF HWY395/I580 BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. TODAY SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WITH
PERCENTAGES DIMINISHING EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK. GUSTY WINDS,
HEAVY RAIN, AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

BY TUESDAY, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SIERRA WHERE DRIER FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY IN.
A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FARTHER NORTH ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN NEVADA AND HAVE MAINTAINED
HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE
AND GERLACH AS A RESULT. DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO FILTER
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY WITH MOST SHOWER
AND STORM POTENTIAL SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARM WITH A CHANCE
FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN RENO TO REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR
THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE BEGINNING OF MAY. FUENTES

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH THE RIDGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
AVERAGE AND WELL INTO THE 80S FOR WESTERN NV WITH 70S COMMON IN THE
SIERRA. AT THIS POINT, THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO EASTERN NV. A LITTLE COOLER ON SUNDAY AS THE
RIDGE SLIDES FAR ENOUGH EAST AS LOW PRESSURE AGAIN APPROACHES THE
COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DO NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY THREAT OF PRECIP AT ALL FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. WE DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NEAR THE SIERRA CREST
IN MONO COUNTY THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT, BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPPED. LEFT ALONE FOR NOW IN
CASE THE MODELS SLOW DOWN THE AMOUNT OF WARMING IN THE MID-LEVELS.
OUTSIDE OF THAT, IT WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR ANY CONVECTION. WALLMANN

AVIATION...
FG THIS MORNING FOR MANY TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY KTRK/KTVL. MORE
PATCHY FOG NEARBY KCXP, KRNO AS WELL. EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF 16-17Z
WITH VFR CONDS THEREAFTER.

A FEW MORE -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY TODAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH MORE WEST WINDS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH WELL EAST OF THE
SIERRA CREST BY EVENING. THREATS FOR TERMINALS TO BEGIN AROUND 19Z
AND END 23Z FOR KTRK/KTVL AND 03Z ELSEWHERE. PRIMARY CONCERNS FROM
TSRA WILL BE SFC WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS AND SOME SMALL HAIL. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 251343
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
643 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER HELPED KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD IN WESTERN
NEVADA AND INTO MONO COUNTY. THEREFORE FOG HAS NOT DEVELOPED THERE
AND HAVE REMOVED FROM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, FOG HAS DEVELOPED
AROUND THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH INTO THE LASSEN COUNTY VALLEYS. THIS
FOG IS QUITE DENSE AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS BEFORE
BURNING OFF. WALLMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SOME CLEARER AREAS DEVELOPING FOG. TRUCKEE AND SOUTH
LAKE TAHOE AIRPORTS HAVE REPORTED VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE
AND EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CIRCULATE AROUND
THE BASE OF A CLOSED LOW ACROSS WASHINGTON STATE. THIS WILL HELP
FIRE OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL EXIST
ROUGHLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH, BUT CHANCES REMAIN GOOD
ALL ALONG THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL MOVE
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY OFF THE SIERRA WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
SHIFTING ROUGHLY EAST OF HWY395/I580 BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. TODAY SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WITH
PERCENTAGES DIMINISHING EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK. GUSTY WINDS,
HEAVY RAIN, AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

BY TUESDAY, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SIERRA WHERE DRIER FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY IN.
A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FARTHER NORTH ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN NEVADA AND HAVE MAINTAINED
HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE
AND GERLACH AS A RESULT. DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO FILTER
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY WITH MOST SHOWER
AND STORM POTENTIAL SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARM WITH A CHANCE
FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN RENO TO REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR
THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE BEGINNING OF MAY. FUENTES

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH THE RIDGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
AVERAGE AND WELL INTO THE 80S FOR WESTERN NV WITH 70S COMMON IN THE
SIERRA. AT THIS POINT, THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO EASTERN NV. A LITTLE COOLER ON SUNDAY AS THE
RIDGE SLIDES FAR ENOUGH EAST AS LOW PRESSURE AGAIN APPROACHES THE
COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DO NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY THREAT OF PRECIP AT ALL FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. WE DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NEAR THE SIERRA CREST
IN MONO COUNTY THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT, BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPPED. LEFT ALONE FOR NOW IN
CASE THE MODELS SLOW DOWN THE AMOUNT OF WARMING IN THE MID-LEVELS.
OUTSIDE OF THAT, IT WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR ANY CONVECTION. WALLMANN

AVIATION...
FG THIS MORNING FOR MANY TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY KTRK/KTVL. MORE
PATCHY FOG NEARBY KCXP, KRNO AS WELL. EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF 16-17Z
WITH VFR CONDS THEREAFTER.

A FEW MORE -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY TODAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH MORE WEST WINDS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH WELL EAST OF THE
SIERRA CREST BY EVENING. THREATS FOR TERMINALS TO BEGIN AROUND 19Z
AND END 23Z FOR KTRK/KTVL AND 03Z ELSEWHERE. PRIMARY CONCERNS FROM
TSRA WILL BE SFC WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS AND SOME SMALL HAIL. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 250943
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
243 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SOME CLEARER AREAS DEVELOPING FOG. TRUCKEE AND SOUTH
LAKE TAHOE AIRPORTS HAVE REPORTED VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE
AND EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CIRCULATE AROUND
THE BASE OF A CLOSED LOW ACROSS WASHINGTON STATE. THIS WILL HELP
FIRE OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL EXIST
ROUGHLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH, BUT CHANCES REMAIN GOOD
ALL ALONG THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL MOVE
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY OFF THE SIERRA WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
SHIFTING ROUGHLY EAST OF HWY395/I580 BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. TODAY SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WITH
PERCENTAGES DIMINISHING EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK. GUSTY WINDS,
HEAVY RAIN, AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

BY TUESDAY, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SIERRA WHERE DRIER FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY IN.
A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FARTHER NORTH ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN NEVADA AND HAVE MAINTAINED
HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE
AND GERLACH AS A RESULT. DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO FILTER
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY WITH MOST SHOWER
AND STORM POTENTIAL SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARM WITH A CHANCE
FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN RENO TO REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR
THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE BEGINNING OF MAY. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH THE RIDGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
AVERAGE AND WELL INTO THE 80S FOR WESTERN NV WITH 70S COMMON IN THE
SIERRA. AT THIS POINT, THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO EASTERN NV. A LITTLE COOLER ON SUNDAY AS THE
RIDGE SLIDES FAR ENOUGH EAST AS LOW PRESSURE AGAIN APPROACHES THE
COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DO NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY THREAT OF PRECIP AT ALL FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. WE DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NEAR THE SIERRA CREST
IN MONO COUNTY THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT, BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPPED. LEFT ALONE FOR NOW IN
CASE THE MODELS SLOW DOWN THE AMOUNT OF WARMING IN THE MID-LEVELS.
OUTSIDE OF THAT, IT WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR ANY CONVECTION. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
FG THIS MORNING FOR MANY TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY KTRK/KTVL. MORE
PATCHY FOG NEARBY KCXP, KRNO AS WELL. EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF 16-17Z
WITH VFR CONDS THEREAFTER.

A FEW MORE -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY TODAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH MORE WEST WINDS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH WELL EAST OF THE
SIERRA CREST BY EVENING. THREATS FOR TERMINALS TO BEGIN AROUND 19Z
AND END 23Z FOR KTRK/KTVL AND 03Z ELSEWHERE. PRIMARY CONCERNS FROM
TSRA WILL BE SFC WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS AND SOME SMALL HAIL. WALLMANN


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 250943
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
243 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SOME CLEARER AREAS DEVELOPING FOG. TRUCKEE AND SOUTH
LAKE TAHOE AIRPORTS HAVE REPORTED VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/2 MILE
AND EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CIRCULATE AROUND
THE BASE OF A CLOSED LOW ACROSS WASHINGTON STATE. THIS WILL HELP
FIRE OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL EXIST
ROUGHLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH, BUT CHANCES REMAIN GOOD
ALL ALONG THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL MOVE
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY OFF THE SIERRA WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
SHIFTING ROUGHLY EAST OF HWY395/I580 BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. TODAY SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WITH
PERCENTAGES DIMINISHING EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK. GUSTY WINDS,
HEAVY RAIN, AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

BY TUESDAY, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISH ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SIERRA WHERE DRIER FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY IN.
A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FARTHER NORTH ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN NEVADA AND HAVE MAINTAINED
HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE
AND GERLACH AS A RESULT. DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO FILTER
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY WITH MOST SHOWER
AND STORM POTENTIAL SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARM WITH A CHANCE
FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN RENO TO REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR
THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE BEGINNING OF MAY. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH THE RIDGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
AVERAGE AND WELL INTO THE 80S FOR WESTERN NV WITH 70S COMMON IN THE
SIERRA. AT THIS POINT, THE WARMEST DAY APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO EASTERN NV. A LITTLE COOLER ON SUNDAY AS THE
RIDGE SLIDES FAR ENOUGH EAST AS LOW PRESSURE AGAIN APPROACHES THE
COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DO NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY THREAT OF PRECIP AT ALL FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. WE DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NEAR THE SIERRA CREST
IN MONO COUNTY THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPS
ALOFT, BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPPED. LEFT ALONE FOR NOW IN
CASE THE MODELS SLOW DOWN THE AMOUNT OF WARMING IN THE MID-LEVELS.
OUTSIDE OF THAT, IT WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR ANY CONVECTION. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
FG THIS MORNING FOR MANY TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY KTRK/KTVL. MORE
PATCHY FOG NEARBY KCXP, KRNO AS WELL. EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF 16-17Z
WITH VFR CONDS THEREAFTER.

A FEW MORE -SHRA/-TSRA LIKELY TODAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH MORE WEST WINDS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH WELL EAST OF THE
SIERRA CREST BY EVENING. THREATS FOR TERMINALS TO BEGIN AROUND 19Z
AND END 23Z FOR KTRK/KTVL AND 03Z ELSEWHERE. PRIMARY CONCERNS FROM
TSRA WILL BE SFC WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS AND SOME SMALL HAIL. WALLMANN


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 250331
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
831 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED TO MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
NOW...BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE FAR SRN CWA AND THE
ERN CWA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY WEAK IMPULSE
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS SEEMS TO BE
PRODUCING JUST ENOUGH MID LVL FORCING TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. WILL ADJUST THE LOCATION AND TIMING
OF CONVECTION A LITTLE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A LITTLE CLEARING OVERNIGHT THAT SHOULD
ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE SIERRA VALLEYS AND A FEW
VALLEY LOCATION IN FAR WESTERN NEVADA. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...

SO FAR TODAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES, WITH SHOWERS STARTING TO BUILD UP
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND OVER FAR WESTERN NEVADA. ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO EARLY EVENING OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA SOUTH OF SUSANVILLE TO LOVELOCK. MAIN THREATS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH.

NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY
MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
PORTOLA-LOVELOCK. FARTHER SOUTH, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE INCLUDING RENO-TAHOE, BUT WEST WINDS SHOULD KICK IN LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND FORCE CONVECTION EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 BY EARLY
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS FOR MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION, WITH
LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE SIERRA CREST DUE TO THE WEST WINDS ALOFT
AND DRIER AIR.

ONE FINAL FORECAST ISSUE THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG WITH SKIES CLEARING AT NIGHT. THE BEST CONFIDENCE IN FOG
FORMATION IS FOR THE NORTHERN SIERRA VALLEYS, THOUGH A FEW AREAS
OF FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS. BRONG

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR THE LONG TERM WHICH TRANSITIONS FROM ONE LAST
DAY OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING ON WEDNESDAY TO RIDGING THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ONE LAST
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE. BEST CHANCES REMAIN
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, BUT STILL ONLY AROUND 20-30% FOR A SHOWER AND
ABOUT A 15% CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. CANNOT RULE OUT LOW CHANCES
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AT THIS TIME SO
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR NOW.

MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PATTERN SHIFT TO RIDGE AS IS
TYPICAL FOR LARGE CHANGES. AS SUCH HAVE ADDED ABOUT A 15% CHANCE
OVER THE SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY ON THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL
LIKELY BE EARLY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
THROUGH THE EVENING, FLATTENING CLOUD ELEMENTS AS 500 MB TEMPS
APPROACH -10 C. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION OVER TERRAIN
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FRIDAY, BUT THE APEX OF THE RIDGE WOULD BE OVER
THE SIERRA CAPPING CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES. KEPT CHANCES MINIMAL
FOR SATURDAY; WAITING FOR ANOTHER RUN OR TWO TO SEE IF THE RIDGE
SLOWS FURTHER. IF MODELS VERIFIED NOW, THERE COULD BE A FEW BUILD-
UPS SATURDAY OVER THE SIERRA AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN COOLING ALOFT
WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MOST NOTABLE IMPACT FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO AT LEAST THE MID 80S WITH
INDICATIONS FOR SATURDAY THAT 90S ARE POSSIBLE FOR TYPICALLY WARMER
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 95. AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY COOL A FEW DEGREES BACK INTO THE MID 80S. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH MODELS AS THEY TYPICALLY MOVE MAJOR LONGWAVE FEATURES TOO
QUICKLY IN THE 6-14 DAY RANGE. BOYD

AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR TERMINALS OCCURRING AT KTRK, KTVL, KNFL, AND KLOL. THESE
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLEAR.

FOG FORMATION IS MOST LIKELY IN SIERRA VALLEYS, BUT ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR MANY WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS TO HAVE SOME FOG
COVERAGE. THIS INCLUDES SIERRA FRONT LOCATIONS AND AREAS AROUND
THE CARSON SINK. EFFECTIVELY ALL TERMINALS COULD SEE SOME FOG
INCLUDING KNFL, KLOL, AND KMMH.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES
DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY. CONTINUED CHANCES OF MORNING FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH COVERAGE DECREASING A LITTLE EACH NIGHT. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 250331
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
831 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED TO MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
NOW...BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE FAR SRN CWA AND THE
ERN CWA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY WEAK IMPULSE
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS SEEMS TO BE
PRODUCING JUST ENOUGH MID LVL FORCING TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. WILL ADJUST THE LOCATION AND TIMING
OF CONVECTION A LITTLE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A LITTLE CLEARING OVERNIGHT THAT SHOULD
ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE SIERRA VALLEYS AND A FEW
VALLEY LOCATION IN FAR WESTERN NEVADA. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...

SO FAR TODAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES, WITH SHOWERS STARTING TO BUILD UP
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND OVER FAR WESTERN NEVADA. ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO EARLY EVENING OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA SOUTH OF SUSANVILLE TO LOVELOCK. MAIN THREATS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH.

NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY
MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
PORTOLA-LOVELOCK. FARTHER SOUTH, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE INCLUDING RENO-TAHOE, BUT WEST WINDS SHOULD KICK IN LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND FORCE CONVECTION EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 BY EARLY
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS FOR MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION, WITH
LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE SIERRA CREST DUE TO THE WEST WINDS ALOFT
AND DRIER AIR.

ONE FINAL FORECAST ISSUE THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG WITH SKIES CLEARING AT NIGHT. THE BEST CONFIDENCE IN FOG
FORMATION IS FOR THE NORTHERN SIERRA VALLEYS, THOUGH A FEW AREAS
OF FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS. BRONG

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR THE LONG TERM WHICH TRANSITIONS FROM ONE LAST
DAY OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING ON WEDNESDAY TO RIDGING THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ONE LAST
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE. BEST CHANCES REMAIN
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, BUT STILL ONLY AROUND 20-30% FOR A SHOWER AND
ABOUT A 15% CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. CANNOT RULE OUT LOW CHANCES
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AT THIS TIME SO
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR NOW.

MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PATTERN SHIFT TO RIDGE AS IS
TYPICAL FOR LARGE CHANGES. AS SUCH HAVE ADDED ABOUT A 15% CHANCE
OVER THE SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY ON THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL
LIKELY BE EARLY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
THROUGH THE EVENING, FLATTENING CLOUD ELEMENTS AS 500 MB TEMPS
APPROACH -10 C. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION OVER TERRAIN
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FRIDAY, BUT THE APEX OF THE RIDGE WOULD BE OVER
THE SIERRA CAPPING CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES. KEPT CHANCES MINIMAL
FOR SATURDAY; WAITING FOR ANOTHER RUN OR TWO TO SEE IF THE RIDGE
SLOWS FURTHER. IF MODELS VERIFIED NOW, THERE COULD BE A FEW BUILD-
UPS SATURDAY OVER THE SIERRA AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN COOLING ALOFT
WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MOST NOTABLE IMPACT FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO AT LEAST THE MID 80S WITH
INDICATIONS FOR SATURDAY THAT 90S ARE POSSIBLE FOR TYPICALLY WARMER
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 95. AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY COOL A FEW DEGREES BACK INTO THE MID 80S. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH MODELS AS THEY TYPICALLY MOVE MAJOR LONGWAVE FEATURES TOO
QUICKLY IN THE 6-14 DAY RANGE. BOYD

AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR TERMINALS OCCURRING AT KTRK, KTVL, KNFL, AND KLOL. THESE
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLEAR.

FOG FORMATION IS MOST LIKELY IN SIERRA VALLEYS, BUT ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR MANY WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS TO HAVE SOME FOG
COVERAGE. THIS INCLUDES SIERRA FRONT LOCATIONS AND AREAS AROUND
THE CARSON SINK. EFFECTIVELY ALL TERMINALS COULD SEE SOME FOG
INCLUDING KNFL, KLOL, AND KMMH.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES
DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY. CONTINUED CHANCES OF MORNING FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH COVERAGE DECREASING A LITTLE EACH NIGHT. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 250331
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
831 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED TO MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
NOW...BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE FAR SRN CWA AND THE
ERN CWA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY WEAK IMPULSE
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS SEEMS TO BE
PRODUCING JUST ENOUGH MID LVL FORCING TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. WILL ADJUST THE LOCATION AND TIMING
OF CONVECTION A LITTLE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A LITTLE CLEARING OVERNIGHT THAT SHOULD
ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE SIERRA VALLEYS AND A FEW
VALLEY LOCATION IN FAR WESTERN NEVADA. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...

SO FAR TODAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES, WITH SHOWERS STARTING TO BUILD UP
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND OVER FAR WESTERN NEVADA. ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO EARLY EVENING OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA SOUTH OF SUSANVILLE TO LOVELOCK. MAIN THREATS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH.

NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY
MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
PORTOLA-LOVELOCK. FARTHER SOUTH, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE INCLUDING RENO-TAHOE, BUT WEST WINDS SHOULD KICK IN LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND FORCE CONVECTION EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 BY EARLY
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS FOR MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION, WITH
LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE SIERRA CREST DUE TO THE WEST WINDS ALOFT
AND DRIER AIR.

ONE FINAL FORECAST ISSUE THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG WITH SKIES CLEARING AT NIGHT. THE BEST CONFIDENCE IN FOG
FORMATION IS FOR THE NORTHERN SIERRA VALLEYS, THOUGH A FEW AREAS
OF FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS. BRONG

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR THE LONG TERM WHICH TRANSITIONS FROM ONE LAST
DAY OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING ON WEDNESDAY TO RIDGING THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ONE LAST
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE. BEST CHANCES REMAIN
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, BUT STILL ONLY AROUND 20-30% FOR A SHOWER AND
ABOUT A 15% CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. CANNOT RULE OUT LOW CHANCES
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AT THIS TIME SO
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR NOW.

MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PATTERN SHIFT TO RIDGE AS IS
TYPICAL FOR LARGE CHANGES. AS SUCH HAVE ADDED ABOUT A 15% CHANCE
OVER THE SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY ON THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL
LIKELY BE EARLY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
THROUGH THE EVENING, FLATTENING CLOUD ELEMENTS AS 500 MB TEMPS
APPROACH -10 C. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION OVER TERRAIN
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FRIDAY, BUT THE APEX OF THE RIDGE WOULD BE OVER
THE SIERRA CAPPING CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES. KEPT CHANCES MINIMAL
FOR SATURDAY; WAITING FOR ANOTHER RUN OR TWO TO SEE IF THE RIDGE
SLOWS FURTHER. IF MODELS VERIFIED NOW, THERE COULD BE A FEW BUILD-
UPS SATURDAY OVER THE SIERRA AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN COOLING ALOFT
WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MOST NOTABLE IMPACT FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO AT LEAST THE MID 80S WITH
INDICATIONS FOR SATURDAY THAT 90S ARE POSSIBLE FOR TYPICALLY WARMER
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 95. AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY COOL A FEW DEGREES BACK INTO THE MID 80S. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH MODELS AS THEY TYPICALLY MOVE MAJOR LONGWAVE FEATURES TOO
QUICKLY IN THE 6-14 DAY RANGE. BOYD

AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR TERMINALS OCCURRING AT KTRK, KTVL, KNFL, AND KLOL. THESE
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLEAR.

FOG FORMATION IS MOST LIKELY IN SIERRA VALLEYS, BUT ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR MANY WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS TO HAVE SOME FOG
COVERAGE. THIS INCLUDES SIERRA FRONT LOCATIONS AND AREAS AROUND
THE CARSON SINK. EFFECTIVELY ALL TERMINALS COULD SEE SOME FOG
INCLUDING KNFL, KLOL, AND KMMH.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES
DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY. CONTINUED CHANCES OF MORNING FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH COVERAGE DECREASING A LITTLE EACH NIGHT. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 242136
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
236 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SO FAR TODAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES, WITH SHOWERS STARTING TO BUILD UP
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND OVER FAR WESTERN NEVADA. ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO EARLY EVENING OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA SOUTH OF SUSANVILLE TO LOVELOCK. MAIN THREATS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH.

NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY
MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
PORTOLA-LOVELOCK. FARTHER SOUTH, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE INCLUDING RENO-TAHOE, BUT WEST WINDS SHOULD KICK IN LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND FORCE CONVECTION EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 BY EARLY
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS FOR MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION, WITH
LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE SIERRA CREST DUE TO THE WEST WINDS ALOFT
AND DRIER AIR.

ONE FINAL FORECAST ISSUE THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG WITH SKIES CLEARING AT NIGHT. THE BEST CONFIDENCE IN FOG
FORMATION IS FOR THE NORTHERN SIERRA VALLEYS, THOUGH A FEW AREAS
OF FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS. BRONG

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR THE LONG TERM WHICH TRANSITIONS FROM ONE LAST
DAY OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING ON WEDNESDAY TO RIDGING THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ONE LAST
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE. BEST CHANCES REMAIN
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, BUT STILL ONLY AROUND 20-30% FOR A SHOWER AND
ABOUT A 15% CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. CANNOT RULE OUT LOW CHANCES
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AT THIS TIME SO
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR NOW.

MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PATTERN SHIFT TO RIDGE AS IS
TYPICAL FOR LARGE CHANGES. AS SUCH HAVE ADDED ABOUT A 15% CHANCE
OVER THE SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY ON THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL
LIKELY BE EARLY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
THROUGH THE EVENING, FLATTENING CLOUD ELEMENTS AS 500 MB TEMPS
APPROACH -10 C. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION OVER TERRAIN
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FRIDAY, BUT THE APEX OF THE RIDGE WOULD BE OVER
THE SIERRA CAPPING CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES. KEPT CHANCES MINIMAL
FOR SATURDAY; WAITING FOR ANOTHER RUN OR TWO TO SEE IF THE RIDGE
SLOWS FURTHER. IF MODELS VERIFIED NOW, THERE COULD BE A FEW BUILD-
UPS SATURDAY OVER THE SIERRA AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN COOLING ALOFT
WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MOST NOTABLE IMPACT FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO AT LEAST THE MID 80S WITH
INDICATIONS FOR SATURDAY THAT 90S ARE POSSIBLE FOR TYPICALLY WARMER
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 95. AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY COOL A FEW DEGREES BACK INTO THE MID 80S. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH MODELS AS THEY TYPICALLY MOVE MAJOR LONGWAVE FEATURES TOO
QUICKLY IN THE 6-14 DAY RANGE. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR TERMINALS OCCURRING AT KTRK, KTVL, KNFL, AND KLOL. THESE
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLEAR.

FOG FORMATION IS MOST LIKELY IN SIERRA VALLEYS, BUT ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR MANY WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS TO HAVE SOME FOG
COVERAGE. THIS INCLUDES SIERRA FRONT LOCATIONS AND AREAS AROUND
THE CARSON SINK. EFFECTIVELY ALL TERMINALS COULD SEE SOME FOG
INCLUDING KNFL, KLOL, AND KMMH.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES
DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY. CONTINUED CHANCES OF MORNING FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH COVERAGE DECREASING A LITTLE EACH NIGHT. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 242136
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
236 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SO FAR TODAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES, WITH SHOWERS STARTING TO BUILD UP
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND OVER FAR WESTERN NEVADA. ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO EARLY EVENING OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA SOUTH OF SUSANVILLE TO LOVELOCK. MAIN THREATS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH.

NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY
MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
PORTOLA-LOVELOCK. FARTHER SOUTH, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE INCLUDING RENO-TAHOE, BUT WEST WINDS SHOULD KICK IN LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND FORCE CONVECTION EAST OF HIGHWAY 395 BY EARLY
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS FOR MONDAY.

BY TUESDAY, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION, WITH
LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE SIERRA CREST DUE TO THE WEST WINDS ALOFT
AND DRIER AIR.

ONE FINAL FORECAST ISSUE THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG WITH SKIES CLEARING AT NIGHT. THE BEST CONFIDENCE IN FOG
FORMATION IS FOR THE NORTHERN SIERRA VALLEYS, THOUGH A FEW AREAS
OF FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS. BRONG

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR THE LONG TERM WHICH TRANSITIONS FROM ONE LAST
DAY OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING ON WEDNESDAY TO RIDGING THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION REMAIN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ONE LAST
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE. BEST CHANCES REMAIN
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, BUT STILL ONLY AROUND 20-30% FOR A SHOWER AND
ABOUT A 15% CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. CANNOT RULE OUT LOW CHANCES
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AT THIS TIME SO
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR NOW.

MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PATTERN SHIFT TO RIDGE AS IS
TYPICAL FOR LARGE CHANGES. AS SUCH HAVE ADDED ABOUT A 15% CHANCE
OVER THE SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY ON THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL
LIKELY BE EARLY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
THROUGH THE EVENING, FLATTENING CLOUD ELEMENTS AS 500 MB TEMPS
APPROACH -10 C. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION OVER TERRAIN
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FRIDAY, BUT THE APEX OF THE RIDGE WOULD BE OVER
THE SIERRA CAPPING CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES. KEPT CHANCES MINIMAL
FOR SATURDAY; WAITING FOR ANOTHER RUN OR TWO TO SEE IF THE RIDGE
SLOWS FURTHER. IF MODELS VERIFIED NOW, THERE COULD BE A FEW BUILD-
UPS SATURDAY OVER THE SIERRA AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN COOLING ALOFT
WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MOST NOTABLE IMPACT FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO AT LEAST THE MID 80S WITH
INDICATIONS FOR SATURDAY THAT 90S ARE POSSIBLE FOR TYPICALLY WARMER
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 95. AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY COOL A FEW DEGREES BACK INTO THE MID 80S. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH MODELS AS THEY TYPICALLY MOVE MAJOR LONGWAVE FEATURES TOO
QUICKLY IN THE 6-14 DAY RANGE. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR TERMINALS OCCURRING AT KTRK, KTVL, KNFL, AND KLOL. THESE
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLEAR.

FOG FORMATION IS MOST LIKELY IN SIERRA VALLEYS, BUT ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR MANY WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS TO HAVE SOME FOG
COVERAGE. THIS INCLUDES SIERRA FRONT LOCATIONS AND AREAS AROUND
THE CARSON SINK. EFFECTIVELY ALL TERMINALS COULD SEE SOME FOG
INCLUDING KNFL, KLOL, AND KMMH.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ON MEMORIAL DAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES
DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY. CONTINUED CHANCES OF MORNING FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH COVERAGE DECREASING A LITTLE EACH NIGHT. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




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