Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS65 KREV 252209
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
209 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS, RAIN AND SIERRA SNOW THROUGH MONDAY.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AN MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THANKSGIVING, THEN
WILL BREAK DOWN FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY COULD CLIMB TO WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF THE RECORD
VALUES. THE RECORD HIGH AT THE RENO AIRPORT FOR NOV 27TH IS 70
DEGREES LAST SET IN 1946.

FIRST SHOT AT PRECIPITATION WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE JET
PASSES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. BEST CHANCES
ARE OVER PLUMAS AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY, WHERE SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL TO 6000-7000 FEET.
LIQUID AMOUNTS OF 0.50 INCH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE FOR PLUMAS AND
WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY, THEN FALLING OFF TO 0.10 INCH OR LESS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 395. LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH THE DONNER SUMMIT AREA, BUT
PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO IMPACT TRAVEL. BRONG

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST FOR THE SATURDAY-
SUNDAY TIME FRAME, SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE MAIN LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING, THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
APPEARS TO BE IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT ESTIMATES OF SNOW LEVELS ARE 6500-7000
FEET FOR NORTHEAST CA, AND 7000-8000 FEET NEAR THE SIERRA FROM
TAHOE SOUTHWARD SO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER PASSES.

SUNDAY MAY NOT BE AS WET AS LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAIN LOW
OFF THE CA COAST NEAR 130W, WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER EASTERN
NEVADA AMPLIFYING A BIT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN BACKING OF LOW-MID
LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST, AND THE MOISTURE FEED
RETREATING FARTHER NORTH INTO NORTHWEST-NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES INLAND, ALTHOUGH TIMING IS A
BIT SLOWER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS GUIDANCE DATA. THE POTENTIAL IS
INCREASING FOR AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION NEAR THE SIERRA
CREST AND IN NORTHEAST CA, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DECENT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN SHOULD ALSO SPREAD INTO WESTERN NV AROUND THE
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL BELOW 6000
FEET BY MONDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO
THE TAHOE BASIN, BUT THE AIR MASS IS LESS LIKELY TO BE COLD ENOUGH
TO BRING MEASURABLE SNOW INTO WESTERN NV VALLEYS BELOW 5000 FEET.
HOWEVER, THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS STILL RATHER LOW FOR THE AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR BEING PULLED INTO THIS STORM AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT
THE SNOW LEVELS.

FOR NEXT TUESDAY, PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE WINDING DOWN AS
THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THRU THANKSGIVING
DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER CA-NV. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 251104 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS
MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND
IMPACT TRAVEL BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD DIRECTLY
OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THANKSGIVING DAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM A
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-80. TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ON THURSDAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT IMPACTFUL) AS THE NAM SHOWS 35-45 KTS OF 700 MB FLOW
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES 25-35 KTS. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL AFFECT HOW
MUCH VALLEY MIXING OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, I HAVE A
HIGH OF 65 FOR THE RENO AIRPORT BUT IT COULD EASILY WIND UP CLOSER
TO 70 (THE RECORD HIGH FOR THURSDAY) WITH INCREASED MIXING AS IS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MIXING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP OFFSET COOLING FOR LOWER VALLEY AREAS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NV.
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FAR NORTH.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES HELP
CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W FRI-SAT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV.
MOST MODELS SHOW MAIN PRECIPITATION BULLS EYE OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGE WITH LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 6500 FEET AND SNOW IMPACTS LIMITED
TO HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES AROUND LAKE TAHOE SAT MORNING. RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MORE LIMITED SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY IF
IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. FIRST SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
EJECT SAT NGT AND KEEP RAIN AND SNOW GOING ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE
TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER INTO
WESTERN NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL A BIT AS
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES ALOFT AND THIS MAY PRESENT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR SIERRA PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH
ALONG THE TAHOE CREST AND UPWARDS TO 0.75 INCH NORTH INTO PLUMAS
AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY.

SECOND UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL DROP AND CLOSE OFF SAT NGT-SUN WITH
MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BACKING OFF FOR
SUNDAY AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FURTHER WEST. GFS MODEL
TRENDS OF A SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED OFFSHORE TROUGH SUPPORT THIS TREND
AND WE HAVE REMOVED RAIN FROM MUCH OF WESTERN NV ON SUNDAY BUT KEPT
LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE SIERRA WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MAY
STILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, THOSE POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED AS WELL
SUNDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING UPPER LOW INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS FASTER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH UPPER LOW MON-TUE. WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR HIGHEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT WHEN WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS FINALLY LOW
ENOUGH TO BRING DECENT SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA. SOME MODEL QPF
NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 2-4 INCHES NEAR THE CREST, BUT THIS IS A
HIGH END AND THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PROJECT ACTUAL
NUMBERS. GIVEN THE NOTABLE TREND OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE
GFS RUNS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES
BETTER AND PUSHES THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATER INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THRU 16Z.
FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 251104 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS
MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND
IMPACT TRAVEL BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD DIRECTLY
OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THANKSGIVING DAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM A
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-80. TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ON THURSDAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT IMPACTFUL) AS THE NAM SHOWS 35-45 KTS OF 700 MB FLOW
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES 25-35 KTS. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL AFFECT HOW
MUCH VALLEY MIXING OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, I HAVE A
HIGH OF 65 FOR THE RENO AIRPORT BUT IT COULD EASILY WIND UP CLOSER
TO 70 (THE RECORD HIGH FOR THURSDAY) WITH INCREASED MIXING AS IS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MIXING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP OFFSET COOLING FOR LOWER VALLEY AREAS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NV.
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FAR NORTH.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES HELP
CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W FRI-SAT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV.
MOST MODELS SHOW MAIN PRECIPITATION BULLS EYE OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGE WITH LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 6500 FEET AND SNOW IMPACTS LIMITED
TO HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES AROUND LAKE TAHOE SAT MORNING. RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MORE LIMITED SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY IF
IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. FIRST SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
EJECT SAT NGT AND KEEP RAIN AND SNOW GOING ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE
TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER INTO
WESTERN NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL A BIT AS
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES ALOFT AND THIS MAY PRESENT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR SIERRA PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH
ALONG THE TAHOE CREST AND UPWARDS TO 0.75 INCH NORTH INTO PLUMAS
AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY.

SECOND UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL DROP AND CLOSE OFF SAT NGT-SUN WITH
MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BACKING OFF FOR
SUNDAY AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FURTHER WEST. GFS MODEL
TRENDS OF A SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED OFFSHORE TROUGH SUPPORT THIS TREND
AND WE HAVE REMOVED RAIN FROM MUCH OF WESTERN NV ON SUNDAY BUT KEPT
LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE SIERRA WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MAY
STILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, THOSE POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED AS WELL
SUNDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING UPPER LOW INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS FASTER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH UPPER LOW MON-TUE. WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR HIGHEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT WHEN WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS FINALLY LOW
ENOUGH TO BRING DECENT SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA. SOME MODEL QPF
NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 2-4 INCHES NEAR THE CREST, BUT THIS IS A
HIGH END AND THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PROJECT ACTUAL
NUMBERS. GIVEN THE NOTABLE TREND OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE
GFS RUNS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES
BETTER AND PUSHES THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATER INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THRU 16Z.
FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)











000
FXUS65 KREV 251104 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS
MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND
IMPACT TRAVEL BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD DIRECTLY
OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THANKSGIVING DAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM A
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-80. TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ON THURSDAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT IMPACTFUL) AS THE NAM SHOWS 35-45 KTS OF 700 MB FLOW
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES 25-35 KTS. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL AFFECT HOW
MUCH VALLEY MIXING OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, I HAVE A
HIGH OF 65 FOR THE RENO AIRPORT BUT IT COULD EASILY WIND UP CLOSER
TO 70 (THE RECORD HIGH FOR THURSDAY) WITH INCREASED MIXING AS IS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MIXING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP OFFSET COOLING FOR LOWER VALLEY AREAS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NV.
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FAR NORTH.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES HELP
CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W FRI-SAT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV.
MOST MODELS SHOW MAIN PRECIPITATION BULLS EYE OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGE WITH LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 6500 FEET AND SNOW IMPACTS LIMITED
TO HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES AROUND LAKE TAHOE SAT MORNING. RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MORE LIMITED SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY IF
IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. FIRST SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
EJECT SAT NGT AND KEEP RAIN AND SNOW GOING ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE
TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER INTO
WESTERN NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL A BIT AS
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES ALOFT AND THIS MAY PRESENT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR SIERRA PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH
ALONG THE TAHOE CREST AND UPWARDS TO 0.75 INCH NORTH INTO PLUMAS
AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY.

SECOND UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL DROP AND CLOSE OFF SAT NGT-SUN WITH
MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BACKING OFF FOR
SUNDAY AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FURTHER WEST. GFS MODEL
TRENDS OF A SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED OFFSHORE TROUGH SUPPORT THIS TREND
AND WE HAVE REMOVED RAIN FROM MUCH OF WESTERN NV ON SUNDAY BUT KEPT
LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE SIERRA WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MAY
STILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, THOSE POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED AS WELL
SUNDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING UPPER LOW INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS FASTER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH UPPER LOW MON-TUE. WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR HIGHEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT WHEN WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS FINALLY LOW
ENOUGH TO BRING DECENT SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA. SOME MODEL QPF
NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 2-4 INCHES NEAR THE CREST, BUT THIS IS A
HIGH END AND THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PROJECT ACTUAL
NUMBERS. GIVEN THE NOTABLE TREND OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE
GFS RUNS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES
BETTER AND PUSHES THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATER INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THRU 16Z.
FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)











000
FXUS65 KREV 251104 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS
MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND
IMPACT TRAVEL BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD DIRECTLY
OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THANKSGIVING DAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM A
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-80. TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ON THURSDAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT IMPACTFUL) AS THE NAM SHOWS 35-45 KTS OF 700 MB FLOW
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES 25-35 KTS. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL AFFECT HOW
MUCH VALLEY MIXING OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, I HAVE A
HIGH OF 65 FOR THE RENO AIRPORT BUT IT COULD EASILY WIND UP CLOSER
TO 70 (THE RECORD HIGH FOR THURSDAY) WITH INCREASED MIXING AS IS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MIXING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP OFFSET COOLING FOR LOWER VALLEY AREAS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NV.
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FAR NORTH.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES HELP
CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W FRI-SAT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV.
MOST MODELS SHOW MAIN PRECIPITATION BULLS EYE OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGE WITH LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 6500 FEET AND SNOW IMPACTS LIMITED
TO HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES AROUND LAKE TAHOE SAT MORNING. RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MORE LIMITED SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY IF
IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. FIRST SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
EJECT SAT NGT AND KEEP RAIN AND SNOW GOING ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE
TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER INTO
WESTERN NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL A BIT AS
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES ALOFT AND THIS MAY PRESENT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR SIERRA PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH
ALONG THE TAHOE CREST AND UPWARDS TO 0.75 INCH NORTH INTO PLUMAS
AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY.

SECOND UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL DROP AND CLOSE OFF SAT NGT-SUN WITH
MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BACKING OFF FOR
SUNDAY AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FURTHER WEST. GFS MODEL
TRENDS OF A SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED OFFSHORE TROUGH SUPPORT THIS TREND
AND WE HAVE REMOVED RAIN FROM MUCH OF WESTERN NV ON SUNDAY BUT KEPT
LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE SIERRA WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MAY
STILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, THOSE POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED AS WELL
SUNDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING UPPER LOW INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS FASTER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH UPPER LOW MON-TUE. WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR HIGHEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT WHEN WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS FINALLY LOW
ENOUGH TO BRING DECENT SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA. SOME MODEL QPF
NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 2-4 INCHES NEAR THE CREST, BUT THIS IS A
HIGH END AND THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PROJECT ACTUAL
NUMBERS. GIVEN THE NOTABLE TREND OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE
GFS RUNS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES
BETTER AND PUSHES THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATER INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THRU 16Z.
FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 251058
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS
MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND
IMPACT TRAVEL BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD DIRECTLY
OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THANKSGIVING DAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM A
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-80. TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ON THURSDAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT IMPACTFUL) AS THE NAM SHOWS 35-45 KTS OF 700 MB FLOW
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES 25-35 KTS. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL AFFECT HOW
MUCH VALLEY MIXING OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, I HAVE A
HIGH OF 65 FOR THE RENO AIRPORT BUT IT COULD EASILY WIND UP CLOSER
TO 70 (THE RECORD HIGH FOR THURSDAY) WITH INCREASED MIXING AS IS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MIXING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP OFFSET COOLING FOR LOWER VALLEY AREAS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NV.
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FAR NORTH.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES HELP
CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W FRI-SAT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV.
MOST MODELS SHOW MAIN PRECIPITATION BULLS EYE OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGE WITH LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 6500 FEET AND SNOW IMPACTS LIMITED
TO HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES AROUND LAKE TAHOE SAT MORNING. RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MORE LIMITED SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY IF
IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. FIRST SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
EJECT SAT NGT AND KEEP RAIN AND SNOW GOING ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE
TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER INTO
WESTERN NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL A BIT AS
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES ALOFT AND THIS MAY PRESENT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR SIERRA PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH
ALONG THE TAHOE CREST AND UPWARDS TO 0.75 INCH NORTH INTO PLUMAS
AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY.

SECOND UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL DROP AND CLOSE OFF SAT NGT-SUN WITH
MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BACKING OFF FOR
SUNDAY AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER WEST. GFS MODEL TRENDS
OF A SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED OFFSHORE TROUGH SUPPORT THIS TREND
AND WE HAVE REMOVED RAIN FROM MUCH OF WESTERN NV ON SUNDAY BUT
KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE SIERRA WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW MAY STILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, THOSE POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED
AS WELL SUNDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING UPPER LOW INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS FASTER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH UPPER LOW MON-TUE. WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR HIGHEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT WHEN WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS FINALLY LOW
ENOUGH TO BRING DECENT SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA. SOME MODEL QPF
NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 2-4 INCHES NEAR THE CREST, BUT THIS IS A
HIGH END AND THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PROJECT ACTUAL
NUMBERS. GIVEN THE NOTABLE TREND OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE
GFS RUNS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES
BETTER AND PUSHES THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATER INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THRU 16Z.
FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 251058
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS
MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND
IMPACT TRAVEL BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD DIRECTLY
OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THANKSGIVING DAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM A
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-80. TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ON THURSDAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT IMPACTFUL) AS THE NAM SHOWS 35-45 KTS OF 700 MB FLOW
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES 25-35 KTS. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL AFFECT HOW
MUCH VALLEY MIXING OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, I HAVE A
HIGH OF 65 FOR THE RENO AIRPORT BUT IT COULD EASILY WIND UP CLOSER
TO 70 (THE RECORD HIGH FOR THURSDAY) WITH INCREASED MIXING AS IS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MIXING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP OFFSET COOLING FOR LOWER VALLEY AREAS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NV.
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FAR NORTH.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES HELP
CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W FRI-SAT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV.
MOST MODELS SHOW MAIN PRECIPITATION BULLS EYE OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGE WITH LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 6500 FEET AND SNOW IMPACTS LIMITED
TO HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES AROUND LAKE TAHOE SAT MORNING. RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MORE LIMITED SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY IF
IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. FIRST SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
EJECT SAT NGT AND KEEP RAIN AND SNOW GOING ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE
TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER INTO
WESTERN NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL A BIT AS
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES ALOFT AND THIS MAY PRESENT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR SIERRA PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH
ALONG THE TAHOE CREST AND UPWARDS TO 0.75 INCH NORTH INTO PLUMAS
AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY.

SECOND UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL DROP AND CLOSE OFF SAT NGT-SUN WITH
MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BACKING OFF FOR
SUNDAY AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER WEST. GFS MODEL TRENDS
OF A SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED OFFSHORE TROUGH SUPPORT THIS TREND
AND WE HAVE REMOVED RAIN FROM MUCH OF WESTERN NV ON SUNDAY BUT
KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE SIERRA WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW MAY STILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, THOSE POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED
AS WELL SUNDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING UPPER LOW INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS FASTER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH UPPER LOW MON-TUE. WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR HIGHEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT WHEN WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS FINALLY LOW
ENOUGH TO BRING DECENT SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA. SOME MODEL QPF
NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 2-4 INCHES NEAR THE CREST, BUT THIS IS A
HIGH END AND THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PROJECT ACTUAL
NUMBERS. GIVEN THE NOTABLE TREND OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE
GFS RUNS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES
BETTER AND PUSHES THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATER INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THRU 16Z.
FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 251058
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS
MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND
IMPACT TRAVEL BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD DIRECTLY
OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THANKSGIVING DAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM A
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-80. TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ON THURSDAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT IMPACTFUL) AS THE NAM SHOWS 35-45 KTS OF 700 MB FLOW
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES 25-35 KTS. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL AFFECT HOW
MUCH VALLEY MIXING OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, I HAVE A
HIGH OF 65 FOR THE RENO AIRPORT BUT IT COULD EASILY WIND UP CLOSER
TO 70 (THE RECORD HIGH FOR THURSDAY) WITH INCREASED MIXING AS IS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MIXING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP OFFSET COOLING FOR LOWER VALLEY AREAS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NV.
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FAR NORTH.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES HELP
CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W FRI-SAT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV.
MOST MODELS SHOW MAIN PRECIPITATION BULLS EYE OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGE WITH LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 6500 FEET AND SNOW IMPACTS LIMITED
TO HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES AROUND LAKE TAHOE SAT MORNING. RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MORE LIMITED SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY IF
IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. FIRST SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
EJECT SAT NGT AND KEEP RAIN AND SNOW GOING ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE
TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER INTO
WESTERN NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL A BIT AS
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES ALOFT AND THIS MAY PRESENT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR SIERRA PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH
ALONG THE TAHOE CREST AND UPWARDS TO 0.75 INCH NORTH INTO PLUMAS
AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY.

SECOND UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL DROP AND CLOSE OFF SAT NGT-SUN WITH
MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BACKING OFF FOR
SUNDAY AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER WEST. GFS MODEL TRENDS
OF A SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED OFFSHORE TROUGH SUPPORT THIS TREND
AND WE HAVE REMOVED RAIN FROM MUCH OF WESTERN NV ON SUNDAY BUT
KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE SIERRA WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW MAY STILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, THOSE POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED
AS WELL SUNDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING UPPER LOW INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS FASTER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH UPPER LOW MON-TUE. WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR HIGHEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT WHEN WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS FINALLY LOW
ENOUGH TO BRING DECENT SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA. SOME MODEL QPF
NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 2-4 INCHES NEAR THE CREST, BUT THIS IS A
HIGH END AND THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PROJECT ACTUAL
NUMBERS. GIVEN THE NOTABLE TREND OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE
GFS RUNS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES
BETTER AND PUSHES THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATER INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THRU 16Z.
FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 251058
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS
MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND
IMPACT TRAVEL BY LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL BUILD DIRECTLY
OVER EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH 4 TO 8 DEGREES OF WARMING TODAY AND ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THANKSGIVING DAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS ENERGY EJECTING FROM A
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF I-80. TEMPERATURES BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ON THURSDAY
(ALTHOUGH NOT IMPACTFUL) AS THE NAM SHOWS 35-45 KTS OF 700 MB FLOW
WHILE THE GFS INDICATES 25-35 KTS. THIS DIFFERENCE WILL AFFECT HOW
MUCH VALLEY MIXING OCCURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, I HAVE A
HIGH OF 65 FOR THE RENO AIRPORT BUT IT COULD EASILY WIND UP CLOSER
TO 70 (THE RECORD HIGH FOR THURSDAY) WITH INCREASED MIXING AS IS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY WITH COOLING ALOFT.
HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MIXING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HELP OFFSET COOLING FOR LOWER VALLEY AREAS
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NV.
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EXCEPT FAR NORTH.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER FOR THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES HELP
CARVE OUT A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST
SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 135W FRI-SAT WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NORTHERN NV.
MOST MODELS SHOW MAIN PRECIPITATION BULLS EYE OVER THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN CA COASTAL RANGE WITH LIGHT-MODERATE PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND FAR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY RAIN BELOW 6500 FEET AND SNOW IMPACTS LIMITED
TO HIGHEST SIERRA PASSES AROUND LAKE TAHOE SAT MORNING. RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE MORE LIMITED SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY IF
IT EVEN MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. FIRST SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
EJECT SAT NGT AND KEEP RAIN AND SNOW GOING ESPECIALLY FROM LAKE
TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER INTO
WESTERN NV NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL A BIT AS
TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES ALOFT AND THIS MAY PRESENT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR SIERRA PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL QPF IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS INITIAL PERIOD WITH 0.25-0.50 INCH
ALONG THE TAHOE CREST AND UPWARDS TO 0.75 INCH NORTH INTO PLUMAS
AND WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY.

SECOND UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL DROP AND CLOSE OFF SAT NGT-SUN WITH
MODELS SHOWING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRECIPITATION BACKING OFF FOR
SUNDAY AS MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER WEST. GFS MODEL TRENDS
OF A SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED OFFSHORE TROUGH SUPPORT THIS TREND
AND WE HAVE REMOVED RAIN FROM MUCH OF WESTERN NV ON SUNDAY BUT
KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE SIERRA WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW MAY STILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, THOSE POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED
AS WELL SUNDAY.

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING UPPER LOW INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS FASTER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH UPPER LOW MON-TUE. WE HAVE MAINTAINED OUR HIGHEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SUN NGT-MON NGT WHEN WE WILL SEE OUR BEST
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS FINALLY LOW
ENOUGH TO BRING DECENT SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA. SOME MODEL QPF
NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 2-4 INCHES NEAR THE CREST, BUT THIS IS A
HIGH END AND THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PROJECT ACTUAL
NUMBERS. GIVEN THE NOTABLE TREND OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE
GFS RUNS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES
BETTER AND PUSHES THE HEAVIEST SNOW LATER INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW-MEDIUM. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THRU 16Z.
FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 242312
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
312 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO START THE
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS MAY
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND IMPACT
TRAVEL FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO TRAVEL
IMPACTS FOR THE START OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, HOWEVER THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP 30-50 MPH WINDS OVER RIDGES IN MONO
COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY. BRONG

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A TRANSITION TOWARDS A WETTER PATTERN APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE AS
MODELS IN GENERAL CONSENSUS IN DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST
COAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN TRAVEL IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND
AS WE SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY
TIMEFRAME.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY
EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE SIERRA BY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN ELEVATED AND
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL AND VALLEY
RAINFALL. SOME EARLY MODEL PROJECTIONS PROVIDE ABOUT 0.5-1.0" OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACROSS THE SIERRA FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD
INTO LASSEN COUNTY. UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW LEVELS STILL IS HIGH THIS
FAR OUT BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO THE
6500-7000 FEET RANGE WHICH MAY PRODUCE TRAVEL IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER SIERRA PASSES.

LIGHT SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SIERRA THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. TIMING STILL NOT REFINED BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL MORE IN THE LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING WINDOW. THE GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AMPLIFIED AND SLOWED THIS SYSTEM TO MORE IN THE
MONDAY TIMEFRAME. BEING A WEEK OUT, MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR
1-2+ INCHES OF LIQUID ACROSS THE SIERRA WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
THIS IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN SOME HINT OF
AMPLIFYING THE FLOW ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC WHICH MAY HAVE THE
TENDENCY TO SLOW AND DIG THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD GREATLY
REDUCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. FOR NOW THE TAKE HOME MESSAGE THIS FAR
OUT WOULD BE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED FOR
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AROUND
KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY BETWEEN
11Z-16Z. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 242312
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
312 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO START THE
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS MAY
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA AND IMPACT
TRAVEL FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO TRAVEL
IMPACTS FOR THE START OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, HOWEVER THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP 30-50 MPH WINDS OVER RIDGES IN MONO
COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY. BRONG

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A TRANSITION TOWARDS A WETTER PATTERN APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE AS
MODELS IN GENERAL CONSENSUS IN DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST
COAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN TRAVEL IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND
AS WE SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY
TIMEFRAME.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY
EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE SIERRA BY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN ELEVATED AND
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL AND VALLEY
RAINFALL. SOME EARLY MODEL PROJECTIONS PROVIDE ABOUT 0.5-1.0" OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACROSS THE SIERRA FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD
INTO LASSEN COUNTY. UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW LEVELS STILL IS HIGH THIS
FAR OUT BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LEVELS TO DROP TO THE
6500-7000 FEET RANGE WHICH MAY PRODUCE TRAVEL IMPACTS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER SIERRA PASSES.

LIGHT SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SIERRA THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. TIMING STILL NOT REFINED BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL MORE IN THE LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING WINDOW. THE GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS AMPLIFIED AND SLOWED THIS SYSTEM TO MORE IN THE
MONDAY TIMEFRAME. BEING A WEEK OUT, MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR
1-2+ INCHES OF LIQUID ACROSS THE SIERRA WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
THIS IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN SOME HINT OF
AMPLIFYING THE FLOW ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC WHICH MAY HAVE THE
TENDENCY TO SLOW AND DIG THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD GREATLY
REDUCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. FOR NOW THE TAKE HOME MESSAGE THIS FAR
OUT WOULD BE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED FOR
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
THRU THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. ONLY EXCEPTION IS AROUND
KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY BETWEEN
11Z-16Z. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 241123
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
323 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-WEEK
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC BUILDS INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE RIDGE
WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO FAR NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY AND THE SURPRISE VALLEY THIS EVENING.

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER EASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE TODAY BEFORE WARMING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
BY MID-WEEK AS SUBSIDENCE WARMING ALOFT WORKS INTO THE VALLEYS AND
THE COOL SURFACE HIGH MODIFIES.

PRECIPITATION-WISE, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES IN THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY TONIGHT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA). IT WILL BE A GLANCING
BLOW WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE DEPTH FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE STRONGEST
WAA WILL BE UP IN OREGON. THEREFORE, ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
QUITE LIGHT. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND, DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL WITH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS AS A FLAT RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR BOTH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
SIERRA VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS
THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN AND THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADS ACROSS
THE REGION.

THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS LOOKING MORE PROMISING FOR A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN. LIGHT RAIN IS PROJECTED TO SPREAD
INTO NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN EDGE SLOWLY EAST
AND SOUTH ON SATURDAY. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEADING
SHORTWAVE WHILE THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE CA COAST, SO
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER HIGH.

FOR SUNDAY, ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND INTO WESTERN NV, WITH COOLER AIR ALSO SLOWLY ADVANCING
OVER THE REGION. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR SNOW LEVELS BUT
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEATHER IMPACTS ON THE BUSY TRAVEL DAY
OVER THE SIERRA AND INTO THE TAHOE BASIN FOR SUNDAY. WHILE POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE TRENDING UPWARD FOR SUNDAY, THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IS TARGETING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DECEMBER 1 FOR THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR RAIN AND SNOW, WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN INTO
LOWER ELEVATIONS. KEEP POSTED TO THE LATEST UPDATES AND DISCUSSIONS
AS SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW COULD FINALLY REACH THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA AS THE NEW MONTH BEGINS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THRU TUESDAY.
ONLY EXCEPTION IS AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY BETWEEN 11Z-16Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THANKSGIVING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST. FUENTES/MJD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 241123
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
323 AM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY MID-WEEK
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC BUILDS INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE RIDGE
WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO FAR NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY AND THE SURPRISE VALLEY THIS EVENING.

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER EASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH MID-WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE TODAY BEFORE WARMING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
BY MID-WEEK AS SUBSIDENCE WARMING ALOFT WORKS INTO THE VALLEYS AND
THE COOL SURFACE HIGH MODIFIES.

PRECIPITATION-WISE, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES IN THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY TONIGHT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA). IT WILL BE A GLANCING
BLOW WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE DEPTH FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE STRONGEST
WAA WILL BE UP IN OREGON. THEREFORE, ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
QUITE LIGHT. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND, DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL WITH AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS AS A FLAT RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR BOTH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
SIERRA VALLEYS ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS
THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN AND THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADS ACROSS
THE REGION.

THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS LOOKING MORE PROMISING FOR A
TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN. LIGHT RAIN IS PROJECTED TO SPREAD
INTO NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN EDGE SLOWLY EAST
AND SOUTH ON SATURDAY. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEADING
SHORTWAVE WHILE THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE CA COAST, SO
SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER HIGH.

FOR SUNDAY, ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND INTO WESTERN NV, WITH COOLER AIR ALSO SLOWLY ADVANCING
OVER THE REGION. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR SNOW LEVELS BUT
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEATHER IMPACTS ON THE BUSY TRAVEL DAY
OVER THE SIERRA AND INTO THE TAHOE BASIN FOR SUNDAY. WHILE POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE TRENDING UPWARD FOR SUNDAY, THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IS TARGETING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DECEMBER 1 FOR THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR RAIN AND SNOW, WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN INTO
LOWER ELEVATIONS. KEEP POSTED TO THE LATEST UPDATES AND DISCUSSIONS
AS SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW COULD FINALLY REACH THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA AS THE NEW MONTH BEGINS. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THRU TUESDAY.
ONLY EXCEPTION IS AROUND KTRK WHERE PATCHY FZFG IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING, MAINLY BETWEEN 11Z-16Z. DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THANKSGIVING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST. FUENTES/MJD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 232300
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
300 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TREND WARMER TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY
MID-WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC BUILDS INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THE NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY TO THE EXISTING FORECAST WHICH
DEPICTS BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH MID-WEEK INTO THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHUNTING THE STORM TRACK INTO
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM EACH DAY WITH
VALLEY INVERSIONS FOR WESTERN NEVADA. THE INVERSIONS WILL KEEP
HIGHS SIMILAR BETWEEN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WITH SOME
SIERRA LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY WARMER THAN NEVADA. HIGHS INCREASE
FROM THE LOW/MID 50S TOMORROW TO THE LOW/MID 60S BY WEDNESDAY. BOYD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL DECREASE AS AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEK. EXPECTING MILD CONDITIONS ON
THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60 AREA WIDE ONE THURSDAY BEFORE A COOLING TREND COMMENCES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE LOW PUSHES ALONG THE WEST COAST.

MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING THIS LOW OFF THE
COAST BUT HAVE LOWER AGREEMENT IN PRECIPITATION TIMING AND AMOUNTS
AS THE LOW SHEDS WEAKER SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ACROSS THE SIERRA. LATEST
MODELS DIRECT A BROAD SWATH OF 0.75-1.0" MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY SATURDAY WITH PRECIPITATION PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WETTER WITH SOME SHOWING
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT 2 DAY LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
VARIABILITY IN LIQUID AMOUNTS, TIMING, AND TEMPERATURES SO WON`T
SPECULATE ON PRECIPITATION RANGES YET, BUT HAVE TRENDED FORECASTED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UPWARDS MAINLY ALONG THE SIERRA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THRU MONDAY.
AREAS OF FZFG POSSIBLE AT KTRK AS HIGH CLOUD COVER DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THANKSGIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST. FUENTES

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 231058
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID-WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC BUILDS INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A DRY FORECAST WITH LIGHT WINDS (AT LEAST FOR VALLEYS) IS IN
STORE FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY STRENGTHENS
OVERHEAD.

AT THE LOW LEVELS, A SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN TODAY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES.
ON TUESDAY, HIGHS JUMP MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MANY AREAS AS
SUBSIDENCE WARMING ALOFT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WORKS DOWN INTO
THE VALLEYS. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED AS THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY BEGINS. RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST AND FLATTEN, RESULTING IN AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
OVER THE REGION BUT NO PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST AREAS
WITH HIGHS PUSHING ABOVE 60 DEGREES IN SOME VALLEYS, THEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

BY FRIDAY, THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST BUT IT IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF PINCHING OFF, RESULTING IN THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING A
BIT OVER THE GREAT BASIN. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVER
MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT THICKER CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS
NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV COULD KEEP THOSE AREAS A FEW DEGREES
COLDER.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND, THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAIN
LOW OFF THE CA COAST, BUT BREAKS OFF A SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES
INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN CA WITH INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW BY SATURDAY FOR
THE SIERRA MAINLY FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD TO NORTHEAST CA, WITH
LIGHTER RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NV. A MAJOR
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THIS WEATHER SYSTEM, AND
SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER HIGH SINCE THE CORE OF THE
LOW STAYS OFFSHORE. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THRU MONDAY. ONLY
EXCEPTION IS PATCHY FZFG AROUND KTRK THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD
DISPERSE BY 15Z AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. THE POTENTIAL FOR FZFG AT
KTRK IS LOWER FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT COULD STILL FORM IF
ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS AFTER 08Z. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)











000
FXUS65 KREV 231058
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID-WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC BUILDS INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A DRY FORECAST WITH LIGHT WINDS (AT LEAST FOR VALLEYS) IS IN
STORE FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY STRENGTHENS
OVERHEAD.

AT THE LOW LEVELS, A SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN TODAY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES.
ON TUESDAY, HIGHS JUMP MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MANY AREAS AS
SUBSIDENCE WARMING ALOFT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE WORKS DOWN INTO
THE VALLEYS. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED AS THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY BEGINS. RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST AND FLATTEN, RESULTING IN AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING
OVER THE REGION BUT NO PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST AREAS
WITH HIGHS PUSHING ABOVE 60 DEGREES IN SOME VALLEYS, THEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

BY FRIDAY, THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST BUT IT IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF PINCHING OFF, RESULTING IN THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING A
BIT OVER THE GREAT BASIN. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVER
MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT THICKER CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS
NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV COULD KEEP THOSE AREAS A FEW DEGREES
COLDER.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND, THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAIN
LOW OFF THE CA COAST, BUT BREAKS OFF A SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES
INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN CA WITH INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SOME RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW BY SATURDAY FOR
THE SIERRA MAINLY FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD TO NORTHEAST CA, WITH
LIGHTER RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NV. A MAJOR
PRECIPITATION EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THIS WEATHER SYSTEM, AND
SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER HIGH SINCE THE CORE OF THE
LOW STAYS OFFSHORE. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THRU MONDAY. ONLY
EXCEPTION IS PATCHY FZFG AROUND KTRK THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD
DISPERSE BY 15Z AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. THE POTENTIAL FOR FZFG AT
KTRK IS LOWER FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT COULD STILL FORM IF
ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS AFTER 08Z. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)












    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities