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000
FXUS65 KREV 162124
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
224 PM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING
SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FAST
MOVING COOL FRONT MAY RESULT IN SHOWERS FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP AND BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
SHORT RANGE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS...SO MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENT FORECAST.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...A
FAST MOVING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO BACKED OFF POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CWA
LATE THURSDAY. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME CONVECTION OVER THE FAR
SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THIS AS SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS FOR NOW. HIGHS THURSDAY MAY REACH NEAR 80 IN THE
BASIN AND RANGE AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR THE SIERRA
VALLEYS. THIS LOW LEVEL HEATING WILL HELP THE CAUSE OF CONVECTION
OVER THE FAR SOUTH...BUT ITS MAIN EFFECT MAY BE TO BOOST THE
THERMAL GRADIENT AND RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE BUMPED THE WINDS UP...BUT WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY STILL DOES NOT LOOK GOOD
ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER AT THIS POINT THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR ERN CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES
FOR DEEPER CONVECTION ARE FRIDAY. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO HOLD
ON TO SOME MOISTURE IN THE SRN CWA FRIDAY AND INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LVL DIFFLUENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A WEAK
UPPER LOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO BOOST SHOWERS INTO LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS. ONE DRAWBACK COULD BE CLOUD COVER FRIDAY THAT
STIFLES DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LVL INSTABILITY. FOR NOW DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH EVIDENCE OF DECREASING INSTABILITY TO PULL THE THUNDER
OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT CONFIDENCE ON ITS DEVELOPMENT IS LOW.

FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL FOR SATURDAY. AFTER DECREASING A FEW
DEGREES FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL BOUNCE BACK. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
OVER THE FAR SRN CWA MAY COMBINE WITH HEATING FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR COULD INCREASE TOO MUCH
FOR THESE...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THEM IN THE FORECAST...BUT AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IN ANY DEVELOPMENT IS LOW. 20

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEVADA ON SUNDAY.
OTHER THAN A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS...SUNDAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL
DAY WITH HIGHS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR LAKE TAHOE.

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION BRINGING A COLD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE 12Z GFS IS ABOUT 9-12 HOURS FASTER
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH PRECIP REACHING NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE
TAHOE BASIN MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA VALLEYS LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHEN THE CORE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AND NEAR 40
AT LAKE TAHOE. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO MOST VALLEY FLOORS BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE AFTER THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
HAS OCCURRED. TRAVEL IMPACTS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHEST PASSES AS ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL HAVE TROUBLE
STICKING GIVEN THE HIGH SUN ANGLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THE
RECENT WARM SPELL.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.
MYRICK
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50. MYRICK
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 161024
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
324 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE REGION TODAY, BUT IS
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA STARTING
THURSDAY. A COOL FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN SHOWERS FROM LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OUTSIDE OF
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING FOR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY. ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS AROUND TAHOE FOR THE
LATER TIME PERIOD AS WELL. ALSO, INCREASED TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY BY ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS VERSION.

AS PREVIOUSLY STATED, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE INCREASED ALONG A
PASSING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEVADA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE DRIEST SOLUTION WITH GFS
AND THE EC LEANING TOWARDS STRONGER FORCING LEADING TO MODESTLY
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GLOBAL
MODELS INCREASING CHANCES ABOVE 25% AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
FORCING STILL LOOKS A LITTLE SHALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH CHANCES OF A THUNDERSTORM ABOUT 5 TO 10
PERCENT. IT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WILL
PRESENT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS, BUT WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON SURFACE INSTABILITY. CLOUD COVER COULD CAP TEMPERATURES
LEADING TO FEWER THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR NOW.

OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS REMAIN UNCHANGED. WINDS WILL INCREASE,
BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE
GIVEN THE DISTANCE THIS FRONT HAS FROM THE PARENT LOW. OVERALL, WE
WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 20 MPH RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BOYD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST WERE TO
INCREASE POP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND LOWER HIGHS CONSIDERABLY
TUESDAY.

SATURDAY, RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM FRIDAY`S WEAK TROUGH WILL COMBINE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO POSSIBLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO MONO AND WESTERN MINERAL COUNTIES. ON SUNDAY,
FLAT RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AHEAD OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC ENERGY
DUE TO MOVE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS STILL SHOWS VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL SIERRA AND OUT INTO CENTRAL NEVADA.
THIS IS NOT SHOWN IN ANY OTHER MODEL AND DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
FLAT RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FLATTEN OUT ANY CUMULUS THAT FORM
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, 00Z MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF AN INCOMING TROUGH. THE GEFS
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE QUITE STOUT BY MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
FURTHER INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH. WITH THESE
THINGS IN MIND, I HAVE INCREASED POP TO BRING AT LEAST SOME CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW AREAWIDE BY TUESDAY. THE TROUGH IS FAIRLY COLD SO SNOW
LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY FALL TO NEAR ALL VALLEY FLOORS ALTHOUGH IT
MAY BE AFTER THE MAIN PRECIPITATION PERIOD. IN ANY CASE, AT THIS
TIME OF YEAR SNOW PRETTY MUCH HAS TO FALL AT NIGHT OR BE
EXCEPTIONALLY HEAVY TO CAUSE ANY IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.

THE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
AS TEMPERATURES FALL FROM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND TO
BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE TROUGH`S COLD FRONT. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WITH MODEST NORTHERLY FLOW RELAXING TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF INTO EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH.
SNYDER

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 152137
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
237 PM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BUT IS
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA
STARTING THURSDAY. A COOL FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN SHOWERS FROM LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE FORECAST TODAY WAS CONVECTIVE CHANCES
STARTING THURSDAY AS MODELS ARE COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS WEEK. BUMPED UP
POPS A LITTLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING. HIGH BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS WOULD NORMALLY SIGNAL COOLER
TEMPS...BUT GIVEN IT IS MID APRIL ANY COOL DOWN WILL BE VERY
NEGLIGIBLE. EVEN WITH A COOL DOWN...TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL.

NAM AND GFS ARE STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THURSDAY AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF. TEMPS
CLIMB WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN THURSDAY THEN SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD
CROSS MOST OF THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE
TRYING TO DEVELOP CONVECTION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM BUT INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO MENTION
THUNDER FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADDING THUNDER ALONG
THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT EITHER. STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW STRAY STRIKES. DID INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE A BIT FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THIS SYSTEM.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY MAY KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO
SHOW A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH...AND WITH THE
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY
EVENING CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS DOES
SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY BY LATE FRIDAY TO WARRANT MENTIONING
THUNDER. KEPT ALL POPS AS MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE
FORECAST...BUT WE WILL LIKELY NEED TO START INCREASING THESE WITH
TIME. 20

.LONG TERM...
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO
SWITCH SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND SHOWERS.

FOR THE WEEKEND, RIDGING RETURNS BEHIND FRIDAY`S DISTURBANCE.
RIDGING WILL BE RELATIVELY FLAT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MORE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IN PLACE THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL FORECASTS. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS APPEAR TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-80, BUT THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE EXACT
LOCATION. ECMWF PLACES SHOWERS EAST OF FALLON, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK HAVE LED TO LOW
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE WEST COAST. THE 12Z GFS DIGS THE TROUGH EVEN FURTHER SOUTH
THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, BUT THE ECMWF REMAINS MUCH SHALLOWER
WITH THE TROUGH. GFS IS STILL WAY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AS WELL SO
TRYING TO MEET SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE DIFFERENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS. EITHER WAY IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND A
BIT OF A COOL DOWN. WEISHAHN
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THRU WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS (EXCEPT SOUTH NEAR KTVL DUE TO CHANNELED WINDS)
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT, GENERALLY
BETWEEN THROUGH 03Z/8PM. SNYDER/WEISHAHN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 151017
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
317 AM PDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY AND
PRODUCE BREEZY WINDS OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN BY THURSDAY WITH WARM CONDITIONS. ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE AREA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

VERY LITTLE TO NOTE AS FAR AS ADJUSTMENTS ARE CONCERNED. OTHER
THAN EXPANDING THE AREAL EXTENT OF SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY EVENING, LITTLE HAS CHANGED.

THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK FOR SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
TODAY INTO TOMORROW AS A DRY COOL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NORTHERN
NEVADA. GUSTS TODAY SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 30 MPH WITH SOME WIND
PRONE AREAS SEEING A FEW 40 MPH GUSTS. ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HAVE BEEN DISPLACED WELL NORTH AND EAST INTO IDAHO AND FAR
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA LEAVING WESTERN NEVADA DRY. TEMPERATURES COOL
BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES WEDNESDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR
WESTERN NEVADA.

TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN INTO THE LOW 70S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. DID INCREASE THE EXTENT OF SLIGHT CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95 THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM, ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES IN BETWEEN
RELATIVELY WEAK SHORT WAVES. BOYD

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SCALED BACK COVERAGE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

FRIDAY, A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE
GFS/ECMWF AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD, A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. HOWEVER, AS FORCING IS WEAK ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE QUITE
LIGHT. NOTE THAT THE NAM IS MUCH DRIER WITH A FASTER TIMING WHICH
WOULD IMPLY NO SHOWERS ON FRIDAY SO, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY, I HAVE NOT
INCREASED POP MUCH.

OVER THE WEEKEND, RIDGING WILL INCREASE BEHIND FRIDAY`S WEAK
DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER, DUE TO LESS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS COMPARED WITH
THE ECMWF, THE GFS HOLDS IN SOME LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE. IF THE GFS
IS ULTIMATELY CORRECT, THERE COULD BE A FEW DIURNALLY-LINKED SHOWERS
IN MONO AND WESTERN MINERAL COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURE-WISE, AS HAS OFTEN BEEN THE CASE
OVER THE PAST WEEK, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS WILL PREVAIL THIS
WEEKEND.

MONDAY, MODELS DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO POP UP REGARDING THE APPROACH
OF FAIRLY VIGOROUS ENERGY OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE 00Z GFS IS
A FULL 12-18 HRS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF (WITH THE GEM IN BETWEEN) IN
BRINGING IN THE ENERGY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE TIMING IS
KEY TO FORECASTING TEMPERATURES, WINDS, AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
FOR HIGHS MONDAY, THIS IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES (GFS) VERSUS 80S AND SUNNY SKIES
(ECMWF). WITH ALL THIS IN MIND, THE FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY
EXHIBITS LOW CONFIDENCE. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR THRU WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS (EXCEPT SOUTH NEAR KTVL DUE TO CHANNELED WINDS) WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT, GENERALLY
BETWEEN 20Z/1PM AND 03Z/8PM. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 142149
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
249 PM PDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA TUESDAY AND
PRODUCE BREEZY WINDS OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN BY THURSDAY WITH WARM CONDITIONS. ANOTHER FAST MOVING
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST IN DEFERENCE TO THE WETTER GFS AND SOME HINT OF PCPN ON
THE ECMWF.

TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH
BRINGING INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED.
JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY SFC WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONGEST WINDS COULD BE
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. WHILE THESE SFC
WINDS SHOULD NOT GUST MUCH BEYOND 30-35 MPH THROUGH THE
DAY...CHOPPY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON AREA LAKES. FOR NOW THINK
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN A SMALL WINDOW LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SO HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...BUT
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WINDS FOR A POSSIBLE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY FOR PYRAMID LAKE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY AND TUESDAY BOTH WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL
ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGH BRIEFLY SETTLES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THEN
SLIDES EAST. BY THURSDAY THE GFS IS BECOMING MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN DROPPING ANOTHER WAVE AND SFC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. AHEAD
OF THIS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE PRODUCING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA...SO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER. ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THE GFS IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING PCPN DOWN WITH THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY
NIGHT. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS POINT AS THE OTHER MODELS ARE
NOT SHOWING QUITE AS MUCH...BUT DID NOT FEEL WE COULD LEAVE OUT
ALL MENTION AT THIS POINT. FRONTOGENESIS COULD BE RATHER STRONG
WITH THIS FEATURE SO EVEN LIMITED MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS. 20

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ONLY A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MAINLY
NEAR THE SIERRA. THE WEATHER PATTERN MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE NEXT
WEEK BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS UNLIKELY TO REACH THE SIERRA OR
WESTERN NV UNTIL AFTER MONDAY.

OVERALL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE 12Z GUIDANCE TRENDED DRIER
WITH WEAK FLOW REGIME OVER THE SIERRA. FOR FRIDAY, HAVE RETAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM MONO TO MINERAL AND SOUTHERN CHURCHILL
COUNTIES AND ALSO FOR NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV, BUT OUTSIDE OF MONO
COUNTY, THIS SHOWER POSSIBILITY IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY.

FOR THIS WEEKEND, HAVE LIMITED SHOWER CHANCES TO AREAS NEAR THE
SIERRA, AND A VERY SMALL PART OF WESTERN NV FROM SOUTHERN DOUGLAS TO
SOUTHWEST MINERAL COUNTY. THIS MAY STILL BE OVERDONE BASED ON MOST
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE DATA LIMITING PRECIP TO MONO COUNTY, BUT THE
00Z GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY FAVORED BETTER PRECIP CHANCES SO WE WILL
NOT SWING COMPLETELY TOWARD THE DRIER TREND. THE ECMWF SCENARIO
BUILDS A RIDGE AXIS IN CA-NV ON SUNDAY WHICH WOULD PREVENT ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE SIERRA OR WESTERN NV. IN EITHER CASE, MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ARE LIKELY FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH
SOME VALLEYS POSSIBLY REACHING 80 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE AS A STRONGER
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE GFS BRINGS THIS TROUGH
INLAND AND SPREADS PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MONDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY A PRETTY DECENT WET PERIOD FOR THE FOLLOWING 1-2 DAYS.
HOWEVER, THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAX TEMPS SURGING INTO THE MID 80S, FOLLOWED BY
THE TROUGH BEING DEFLECTED TO THE PACIFIC NW WITH LITTLE TO NO
PRECIP FOR EASTERN CA-WESTERN NV.

DUE TO THESE CONTRASTING SCENARIOS, FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR NEXT
MONDAY IS LOW AND WILL BE A BLEND OF THE ABOVE SCENARIOS. WE WILL
INCREASE SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DROP TEMPS SLIGHTLY FROM SUNDAY BUT
HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY PRECIP UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. MJD
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THRU TUESDAY WITH INCREASING AREAS OF CIRRUS STARTING TONIGHT.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THRU TUES AM. WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT MAINLY BETWEEN 20-04Z. MJD
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






000
FXUS65 KREV 140956
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
256 AM PDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA TUESDAY AND PRODUCE
BREEZY WINDS OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY
THURSDAY WITH WARM CONDITIONS AND A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT WAS TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY EVENING. ALL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE STORM TRACK
FARTHER EAST WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMING SLOWER TO RETREAT.
THIS WILL PUSH ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHEAST NEVADA
RATHER THAN CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEVADA.

OTHERWISE, LITTLE HAS CHANGED. STILL EXPECTING BREEZY WINDS
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE BACKDOOR, BUT DRY, FRONT.
DID WARM MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE OR SO TODAY AND TUESDAY
WITH THE SLOWER RETREAT OF THE RIDGE. EXPECT A SLIGHT COOL DOWN
BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COOL
FRONT.  BOYD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ONLY MINOR LONG TERM GRID CHANGES, MAINLY TO PUSH BACK SHOWERS FOR
FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA/NORTHWEST NEVADA TO FRIDAY AND TO INTRODUCE
SHOWERS FOR MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD THURSDAY FOR LIGHT WINDS
AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE FORECAST
WILL BE AFFECTED BY A COUPLE (EC)/THREE (GFS) WEAK UPPER IMPULSES.
ONE OF THE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA AND THE OTHER DISTURBANCE(S) WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. THE DISTURBANCES LOOK TOO WEAK TO OFFER
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, WITH SOME MOISTURE
HANGING AROUND AND DAYTIME HEATING OF THE MILD AIRMASS SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS EVEN POSSIBLE FROM MID AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING ALTHOUGH WHERE THE BEST SHOT IS IS STILL TOO FAR OUT
TO ASCERTAIN SO THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

SUNDAY, UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD MORE STRONGLY OVERHEAD. MODELS
VARY IN THE STRENGTH OF WARMING ALOFT WITH THE RIDGE AND WHETHER OR
NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR A FEW MORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS (GFS THINKS SO). WITH UNCERTAINTY, SHOWERS WERE CONTINUED
FOR EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA FOR NOW. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WITH NO CONCERNS. A RIDGE IS BUILDING OVERHEAD TODAY FOR
RELATIVELY LIGHT VALLEY WINDS (LOCALLY UP TO 10 KTS IN AFTERNOON).

TUESDAY, AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUSH A DRY COOL
FRONT THROUGH NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA FOR INCREASING
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS (GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS) FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SNYDER

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








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