000
FXUS65 KREV 220949
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
249 AM PDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA TODAY BRINGING WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WEAKENS. ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM WERE TO BUMP UP WINDS THURSDAY
(AND LESS SO FRIDAY) AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER OREGON AND WASHINGTON THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS BLOCKED
BY A MID-CONTINENTAL RIDGE. CURRENTLY, A RATHER STOUT COLD FRONT
IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL
BRING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.

TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DOWN INTO THE 30S FOR MOST LOWER
VALLEYS WITH COLDER VALLEYS POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING OR A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW FOR A SHORT TIME EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FOLKS
SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT SENSITIVE PLANTS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

THURSDAY, A NOTABLE UPPER IMPULSE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TROUGH BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
NORTH OF A PORTOLA TO GERLACH LINE. FURTHER SOUTH, SHOWERS ARE
UNLIKELY WITH THE MAIN STORY BEING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS
(ALTHOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS TODAY) AS A GOOD THERMAL GRADIENT REMAINS
BETWEEN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHEAST NEVADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND PULLS NORTH
WITH JUST A RESIDUAL BAGGY TROUGH OVER THE REGION. WITH THE LOW
PULLING AWAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WITH A RATHER DRY AND STABLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND, ALL SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SNYDER

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MODELS/ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL FOR THE WEEKEND AND ARE
NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BAGGY TROUGH WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE. A GENERAL LIGHT AFTERNOON WEST WIND IS
EXPECTED AS WELL. REGARDING PRECIP, IT LOOKS DRY SAT WITH LITTLE
FORCING, BUT A DECENT SHORT WAVE IS SET TO ARRIVE SUNDAY THAT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH. THE GFS
BRINGS SHOWERS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE EC, BUT THE GOING
FORECAST APPEARS A REASONABLE BLEND SO MADE NO CHANGES HERE.

WITH THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT MON/TUE MADE A FEW CHANGES. BOTH THE
EC/GFS SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH SET TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY. OF NOTE WITH
THAT NEXT TROUGH IS THAT A STRONG JET STREAM, MORE TYPICAL OF
WINTER, WILL SET UP IN THE EAST PACIFIC. AT LEAST THE FIRST WAVE
WOULD BE WEAK FOR LATE TUESDAY IT APPEARS. DID DRY OUT MONDAY SINCE
THE MODELS HAVE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE AND ADDED SOME SHOWERS TO
NORTHEAST CA/NW NV FOR TUESDAY DUE TO THE NEXT TROUGH. WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. OF
NOTE IS THAT THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK
WITH THE STRONGEST WAVE POSSIBLY ARRIVING WED OR THU DEPENDING ON
THE MODEL. WALLMANN
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS BCMG NORTH AT 10-15 KTS TODAY
AREAWIDE. STILL SOME WEST WINDS NR KMMH GUSTING TO 30 KTS UNTIL
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND THEN BECOMING NORTH THERE. WINDS TO WEAKEN
TONIGHT THEN PICK UP AGAIN THURS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST WITH PK
GUSTS 20-25 KTS. A FEW SHOWERS PSBL THU AFTERNOON NEAR THE OREGON
BORDER AS WELL. WALLMANN
&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FOR LAKE TAHOE IN NVZ002.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT FOR LAKE TAHOE IN CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

000
FXUS65 KREV 220413 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
913 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...

WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING. WINDS
ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40
MPH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE TAHOE REMAINS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT THROUGH
5AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE LARGE PLUME OF BLOWING DUST IN WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA FROM THE
CARSON SINK WAS IMPRESSIVE, WITH DUST REACHING ALL THE WAY TO ELKO
AND EVEN EASTERN IDAHO. AT ELKO THIS EVENING, VISIBILITIES TO LESS
THAN 2 MILES WERE REPORTED THERE. IN OUR FORECAST AREA, WE DIDN`T
GET ANY REPORTS OF BLOWING DUST, ALTHOUGH THE MAIN AREA AFFECTED
WAS IN RURAL EASTERN CHURCHILL-PERSHING COUNTIES EAST OF FALLON-
LOVELOCK. HOON

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HAS PROVIDED GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WITH UP
TO 50-60 MPH ACROSS WIND PRONE AREAS SUCH AS GALENA AND WASHOE VALLEY.
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
VISIBILITY REDUCED TO 2 MILES REPORTED AT LOVELOCK DERBY FIELD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BEHIND A POTENT COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF EAGLE LAKE AND INTO THE
SURPRISE VALLEY BUT NO ACCUMULATION OR TRAVEL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT, BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND LOW TO MID 50S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS STATIONARY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH
OF I80 ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS. BY THURSDAY, AN UPPER DISTURBANCE (VORTICITY LOBE) WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE STALLED LOW AND WILL BRING BREEZY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF A PORTOLA TO GERLACH LINE. FUENTES

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR INITIAL
POSITION OF TROUGHING THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL OSCILLATE TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
DRY. THEN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ENTERS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING BRINGING SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE NORTHERN SIERRA INTO MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DEVIATE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TROUGHING WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS BRIEF RIDGING FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
CONTINUE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH REMAINING BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS. CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MONDAY, BUT MAY NEED
TO REMOVE SINCE THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS BEGUN TO TREND DRYER LIKE THE
ECWMF.

TEMPERATURES START A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY BEFORE
WARMING TO AVERAGES OVER MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. OVERALL, THE FORECAST
FOR MEMORIAL DAY WILL REMAIN PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S IN WESTERN NEVADA AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR LOCATIONS
IN THE SIERRA. BOYD

AVIATION...
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH KRNO/KTVL/KTRK BETWEEN 09-12Z AND AFT 21Z
AT KMMH. BLOWING DUST MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF VIS BELOW 2SM NEAR
KLOL THROUGH 04Z. PERIODS OF LLWS FOR KTRK/KTVL DUE TO THE
CHANNELING EFFECTS OF THE TERRAIN BETWEEN 04Z-12Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
     NVZ002.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
     CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

000
FXUS65 KREV 212158
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HAS PROVIDED GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WITH UP
TO 50-60 MPH ACROSS WIND PRONE AREAS SUCH AS GALENA AND WASHOE VALLEY.
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
VISIBILITY REDUCED TO 2 MILES REPORTED AT LOVELOCK DERBY FIELD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BEHIND A POTENT COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF EAGLE LAKE AND INTO THE
SURPRISE VALLEY BUT NO ACCUMULATION OR TRAVEL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT, BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND LOW TO MID 50S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS STATIONARY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH
OF I80 ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS. BY THURSDAY, AN UPPER DISTURBANCE (VORTICITY LOBE) WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE STALLED LOW AND WILL BRING BREEZY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF A PORTOLA TO GERLACH LINE. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR INITIAL
POSITION OF TROUGHING THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL OSCILLATE TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
DRY. THEN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ENTERS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING BRINGING SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE NORTHERN SIERRA INTO MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DEVIATE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TROUGHING WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS BRIEF RIDGING FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
CONTINUE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH REMAINING BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS. CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MONDAY, BUT MAY NEED
TO REMOVE SINCE THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS BEGUN TO TREND DRYER LIKE THE
ECWMF.

TEMPERATURES START A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY BEFORE
WARMING TO AVERAGES OVER MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. OVERALL, THE FORECAST
FOR MEMORIAL DAY WILL REMAIN PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S IN WESTERN NEVADA AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR LOCATIONS
IN THE SIERRA. BOYD


.AVIATION...
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH KRNO/KTVL/KTRK BETWEEN 09-12Z AND AFT 21Z
AT KMMH. BLOWING DUST MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF VIS BELOW 2SM NEAR
KLOL THROUGH 04Z. PERIODS OF LLWS FOR KTRK/KTVL DUE TO THE
CHANNELING EFFECTS OF THE TERRAIN BETWEEN 04Z-12Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ005.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
     NVZ002.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ004.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ071.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ070.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
     CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

000
FXUS65 KREV 211348
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
648 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
WINDS ARE STRONGER EARLIER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING. SLIDE
MOUNTAIN WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 70 MPH WITH GUST TO 35 MPH
IN SOME FAVORED LOCATIONS AROUND RENO-TAHOE AS WELL AS THE SIERRA
FROM SUSANVILLE TO BRIDGEPORT. GIVEN THESE TRENDS, AND THE STRONG
GRADIENT WIND SIGNATURE IN THE MODELS, WILL ADD THE SIERRA FRONT
EAST TO FALLON/LOVELOCK TO THE WIND ADVISORY. EXPECT GUSTS TO 50
MPH WITH SOME SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH. THE TAHOE BASIN DOES
NOT DO QUITE AS WELL WITH THE GRADIENT WINDS SO WILL LEAVE THE
LAKE WIND THERE. IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY THERE TOO WITH GUSTS TO 45
MPH.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIE OFF SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. HOWEVER, WITH THE COLD FRONT NOT PUSHING THROUGH AREAS
NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-80 UNTIL AFTER 06Z, WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY
GUSTY. COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE
AREAS THROUGH SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING OR AT LEAST UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT PASSES. WALLMANN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS TO THE AREA TUESDAY, WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS TODAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY. WITH FUELS STILL IN THE
PROCESS OF CURING WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE
AN IMPRESSIVE EVENT SO IN LOCALIZED AREAS THAT HAVE ENOUGH CURED
GRASS OR OTHER FINE FUELS ANY FIRE THAT STARTS COULD SPREAD
QUICKLY. TONIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH, BUT WILL REMAIN
STRONG IN WIND PRONE AREAS. IN ADDITION, A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN
TO WESTERN NEVADA SOUTH OF I-80 SO HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BE POOR.
SOME RIDGES AND MID SLOPES MAY NOT RECOVER ABOVE 20% UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WALLMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013/

SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS TO THE AREA TUESDAY, WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM WAS TO BUMP UP WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ADD A WIND ADVISORY FOR EASTERN LASSEN
AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SURPRISE VALLEY.

AN UPPER LOW IS APPROACHING THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS THIS
MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHWEST NEVADA OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, AN IMPULSE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL CREATE A
STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST STATES. THIS WILL
BRING STRONG, GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. IN FACT, WIND PRONE AREAS OF THE
SURPRISE VALLEY DOWNWIND OF THE WARNER MOUNTAINS MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS OF 55-60 MPH WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AS AN UPPER JET
MOVES INTO FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING. WITH POSSIBLE
DOWNSLOPE AND THE TIGHT GRADIENT, I HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR LASSEN COUNTY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 395 AND OUT INTO WASHOE COUNTY NORTH OF PYRAMID LAKE.
ELSEWHERE, LOCAL ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN
PERSHING COUNTY AND IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA
NEAR RENO, CARSON CITY, AND MINDEN BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LOW WILL STALL OVER
THE NORTHWEST CONUS AS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
HALTS THE LOW`S FORWARD PROGRESS. TWO UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW, ONE ON WEDNESDAY AND THE OTHER THURSDAY
MORNING, BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTH OF A PORTOLA TO GERLACH LINE. IN ADDITION, A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A BIG DROP IN TEMPERATURES WITH BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SNYDER

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MADE FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO
SHOW A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS BY THEN WITH A COOLER/WETTER GFS/GEM TO A
WARMER/DRIER EC. OVERALL, DIDN`T WANT TO MAKE MANY CHANGES WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY AND THE FACT THAT THE GOING FORECAST ALREADY REPRESENTS
A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH.

STRONG SHORT WAVE FOR THURS MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY
WITH A LIGHT WEST FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NW. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A BAGGY TROUGH
OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. WHILE MODELS ARE A BIT DRIER SAT
AND HAVE KEPT DRY, THE GFS BRINGS A DECENT SHORT WAVE INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY FOR SOME SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80. THE EC HAS BACKED OFF THIS
SOLUTION AND KEEPS A WEAKER SHORT WAVE TO NORTH. THE DISCREPANCIES
INCREASE MONDAY WITH THE EC HAVING A WEAKER TROUGH WHILE THE GFS/GEM
ARE STRONGER AND COOLER WITH A FEW SHOWERS. KEPT THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS MONDAY AS THE GEM/GFS ARE MORE CONSISTENT. IN ADDITION,
THE EC ENSEMBLE SUPPORTS THE NORTH AMERICAN MODELS IN CONTRAST TO
ITS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE
COOLER/WETTER IDEAS GIVEN THE MODEL SUPPORTS. HOWEVER, THE EC IS
PLAUSIBLE AS IT DOES SHOW A REASONABLE EVOLUTION TO THE PATTERN.
HOPEFULLY THIS BECOMES CLEARER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WALLMANN

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WED. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WINDS TODAY/TONIGHT.
STRONG COLD FRONT TO INCREASE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT PEAK GUSTS TO 35-40 KTS NORTH OF HWY 50
THIS AFTERNOON AND 30-35 KTS TO THE SOUTH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MTN
WAVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING, BUT THIS EVENING AS WIND
DECOUPLE SOMEWHAT EXPECT IT TO INCREASE. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
LLWS FOR KTRK/KTVL DUE TO THE CHANNELING EFFECTS OF THE TERRAIN
AFTER 04Z. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FM 06-15Z
WED AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
TODAY, WITH LOW-MODERATE ON ANY POTENTIAL LLWS FOR THE TAHOE BASIN
TONIGHT. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     NVZ005.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR LAKE TAHOE IN NVZ002.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     NVZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     NVZ004.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     CAZ071.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     CAZ070.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR LAKE TAHOE IN CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

000
FXUS65 KREV 210935
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
235 AM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS TO THE AREA TUESDAY, WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM WAS TO BUMP UP WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ADD A WIND ADVISORY FOR EASTERN LASSEN
AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE SURPRISE VALLEY.

AN UPPER LOW IS APPROACHING THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS THIS
MORNING WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHWEST NEVADA OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, AN IMPULSE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL CREATE A
STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST STATES. THIS WILL
BRING STRONG, GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. IN FACT, WIND PRONE AREAS OF THE
SURPRISE VALLEY DOWNWIND OF THE WARNER MOUNTAINS MAY SEE BRIEF
GUSTS OF 55-60 MPH WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AS AN UPPER JET
MOVES INTO FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING. WITH POSSIBLE
DOWNSLOPE AND THE TIGHT GRADIENT, I HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR LASSEN COUNTY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 395 AND OUT INTO WASHOE COUNTY NORTH OF PYRAMID LAKE.
ELSEWHERE, LOCAL ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN
PERSHING COUNTY AND IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA
NEAR RENO, CARSON CITY, AND MINDEN BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LOW WILL STALL OVER
THE NORTHWEST CONUS AS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
HALTS THE LOW`S FORWARD PROGRESS. TWO UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW, ONE ON WEDNESDAY AND THE OTHER THURSDAY
MORNING, BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTH OF A PORTOLA TO GERLACH LINE. IN ADDITION, A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A BIG DROP IN TEMPERATURES WITH BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MADE FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLES BEGIN TO
SHOW A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS BY THEN WITH A COOLER/WETTER GFS/GEM TO A
WARMER/DRIER EC. OVERALL, DIDN`T WANT TO MAKE MANY CHANGES WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY AND THE FACT THAT THE GOING FORECAST ALREADY REPRESENTS
A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH.

STRONG SHORT WAVE FOR THURS MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY
WITH A LIGHT WEST FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NW. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A BAGGY TROUGH
OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. WHILE MODELS ARE A BIT DRIER SAT
AND HAVE KEPT DRY, THE GFS BRINGS A DECENT SHORT WAVE INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY FOR SOME SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80. THE EC HAS BACKED OFF THIS
SOLUTION AND KEEPS A WEAKER SHORT WAVE TO NORTH. THE DISCREPANCIES
INCREASE MONDAY WITH THE EC HAVING A WEAKER TROUGH WHILE THE GFS/GEM
ARE STRONGER AND COOLER WITH A FEW SHOWERS. KEPT THE MENTION OF
SHOWERS MONDAY AS THE GEM/GFS ARE MORE CONSISTENT. IN ADDITION,
THE EC ENSEMBLE SUPPORTS THE NORTH AMERICAN MODELS IN CONTRAST TO
ITS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE
COOLER/WETTER IDEAS GIVEN THE MODEL SUPPORTS. HOWEVER, THE EC IS
PLAUSIBLE AS IT DOES SHOW A REASONABLE EVOLUTION TO THE PATTERN.
HOPEFULLY THIS BECOMES CLEARER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WALLMANN
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WED. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WINDS TODAY/TONIGHT.
STRONG COLD FRONT TO INCREASE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT PEAK GUSTS TO 35-40 KTS NORTH OF HWY 50
THIS AFTERNOON AND 30-35 KTS TO THE SOUTH. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MTN
WAVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING, BUT THIS EVENING AS WIND
DECOUPLE SOMEWHAT EXPECT IT TO INCREASE. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
LLWS FOR KTRK/KTVL DUE TO THE CHANNELING EFFECTS OF THE TERRAIN
AFTER 04Z. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FM 06-15Z
WED AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
TODAY, WITH LOW-MODERATE ON ANY POTENTIAL LLWS FOR THE TAHOE BASIN
TONIGHT. WALLMANN
&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     NVZ005.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR LAKE TAHOE IN NVZ002.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PYRAMID LAKE IN NVZ004.

CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     CAZ070-071.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR LAKE TAHOE IN CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

000
FXUS65 KREV 202155
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
255 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA TUESDAY, WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS LINGERING
INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPS ACROSS THE OREGON COAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL FIRST DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SIERRA TUESDAY MORNING AS JET WINDS DIP SOUTH AND
INCREASE THE 700MB FLOW NEAR 40KT. THIS WILL PRODUCE RIDGE GUSTS NEAR
75 MPH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN
SPREAD TO THE FOOTHILL AND VALLEY AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECTING
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20-30MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 ACROSS MONO AND MINERAL
COUNTIES. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE ALSO EXPECTED EAST OF
INTERSTATE 580/HIGHWAY 395 AND DOWNWIND OF DRY LAKE BEDS.
DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS AREA LAKES
AND LAKE WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY.

GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS
THE SIERRA AND FOOTHILL AREAS WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL JET CORE
PUSHES SOUTH ALONG THE SIERRA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE PUSH
THROUGH THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BY AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
FOR WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AND MID 50S ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS. SNOW
LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY DROP TO AROUND 4000FT FROM
FAR NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY TO NEAR 5000 FEET NEAR SUSANVILLE.
THOUGH FORCING IS QUITE STRONG WITH THE FRONT, MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK FOR AREAS GENERALLY
NORTH OF I80 ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS. FUENTES

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
MAJOR FEATURES. LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL SETTLE OVER OREGON TOMORROW
WILL BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MORE SLIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. DID EXTEND SLIGHT CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH TO THE TAHOE
BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT SINCE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE VERY SIMILAR ON
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS TROUGH LENDING TO HIGHER FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL FRIDAY BEFORE
WARMING BACK TO AVERAGES OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
FLATTER WARMING CURVE WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST AND OVERALL
COOLER MODEL TEMPERATURES. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20-25
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35-40KTS. WINDS ACROSS THE SIERRA WILL INCREASE
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. RIDGE GUSTS NEAR 70KT WILL PROVIDE
TURBULENT CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF RIDGE AREAS THROUGH WED
MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH LLWS DUE TO WELL- MIXED ATMOSPHERE,
BUT POTENTIAL INCREASES AFTER 04Z TOMORROW NIGHT IF WINDS WERE TO
DECOUPLE. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH KTVL/KTRK/KRNO WED
MORNING AND KMMH WED AFTERNOON, BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
EXPECTED. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PYRAMID
     LAKE IN NVZ004.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     LAKE TAHOE IN NVZ002.

CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     LAKE TAHOE IN CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

000
FXUS65 KREV 200941
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
241 AM PDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS
TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL
BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA TUESDAY, WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS
LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE COOLER FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS EXPANDING WESTWARD,
BRINGING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO THE SIERRA, NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA, AND WESTERN NEVADA TODAY. GUSTY NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND THROUGHOUT THE TAHOE BASIN ARE BRINGING CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ACROSS LAKE TAHOE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO RELAX AND WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY.

A DEEP, COLD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY, BACKED BY A 110 KT JET, AND SETTLES OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL INDUCE STRONG THERMAL AND
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, THE SIERRA, AND
WESTERN NEVADA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MOST RECENT
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH OF A CRITICAL LAYER OR A
DOWNSLOPE SIGNATURE, AND 700 MB WINDS CONTINUE TO DIFFER BETWEEN
MODELS AND RUN TO RUN, ANYWHERE FROM 25 KTS UPWARDS OF 50 KTS.
FEEL THAT THIS WILL BE A PREDOMINATELY GRADIENT DRIVEN EVENT AND
SO HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF RAISING WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE MAIN
IMPACT SIGNIFICANT COOLING HEADED INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 15 TO 20 DEGREES FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH LINGERING GUSTY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL COLDER.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY NORTH OF A
SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
ASSOCIATED LOW. DF

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER PATTERN. THEY ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DETAILS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THERE IS SOME MINOR DISCREPANCIES OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH NEAR THE OREGON BORDER
THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR THURSDAY, HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT AND BROUGHT THEM AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TAHOE BASIN.
WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE, SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 6000-6500 FEET
ALTHOUGH ANY SNOW WOULD LIKELY FALL AS PELLETS DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING FRIDAY. FRIDAY IS LOOKING DRIER, BUT LEFT THE
SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE OREGON BORDER AS THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCES
SHOWING UP IN THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.

FOR THE WEEKEND, THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL REMAIN BUT THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK
TO NEAR AVERAGE AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH A
LIGHT AFTERNOON ZEPHYR. SUNDAY, THE EC WANTS TO BRING IN THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE WITH SOME PRECIP NORTH OF I-80 WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY
WITH JUST A BROAD TROUGH. GIVEN THE EC`S RECORD THE PAST WEEK WILL
LEAN TOWARD ITS SOLUTION AND ADD A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE OREGON
BORDER. HAVE ALSO LEVELED TEMPS WITH NO WARMING AS THE EC SHOWS
TEMPS COOLING OFF ONCE AGAIN. INTERESTINGLY, ALL THE MODELS SHOW A
COOL UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. IT LOOKS A
BIT MORE LIKE A WINTER PATTERN THAN LATE MAY, ALBEIT NOT AS COLD.
WALLMANN


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME BREEZY NE WIND THIS MORNING
OVER RIDGES WEAKENING BY 16Z WITH TERMINAL WINDS LIGHT TODAY.
STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED TOMORROW FROM THE W-SW 20-25 KTS GUSTS TO 35
KTS. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH LLWS DUE TO WELL-MIXED ATMOSPHERE, BUT
POTENTIAL INCREASES AFTER 04Z TOMORROW NIGHT IF WINDS WERE TO
DECOUPLE. WALLMANN


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

000
FXUS65 KREV 192339 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
250 PM PDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL
BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA TUESDAY, WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS
LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE COOLER FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST IS BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND NORTH WINDS TO THE AREA. THIS DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHEAST PRESSURE/TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE TAHOE BASIN TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THESE GRADIENTS WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH FOR TAHOE. THIS WILL
LIKELY CREATE A LIGHT CHOP ON LAKE TAHOE, ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER CA/NV ON MONDAY, WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE
UPPER 70S IN WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 60S IN THE SIERRA. VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, WHICH WILL CREATE POOR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE SWINGS INTO NORTHERN CA/NV ON TUESDAY, WITH A STRONG
110KT JET PUNCHING INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WINDS
WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON TUESDAY AS 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-45
KTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A MOUNTAIN WAVE/DOWNSLOPE WIND
PROFILE WITH STABLE LAYER ABOVE 700MB AND DECREASING WINDS ABOVE THE
RIDGETOP INVERSION. THIS WILL INCREASE VALLEY GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
WITH RIDGE GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH IN THE SIERRA. MODELS ARE CONTINUING
TO INCREASE THE WIND POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY, AND IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT FROM LASSEN COUNTY
DOWN THROUGH THE RENO-CARSON-MINDEN AREAS AND INTO THE NORTH HALF OF
MONO COUNTY. BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR AREAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 395, SUCH AS SURPRISE VALLEY, HONEY LAKE, BLACK ROCK/SMOKE
CREEK, HUMBOLDT SINK, AND CARSON SINK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTY WINDS
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MID RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAJOR FEATURES FROM
MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE DROPS OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA INTO SOUTHERN OREGON WHERE IT STAGNATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. SEVERAL TROUGHS PINWHEEL AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE VERY NORTHERN SIERRA, NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA, AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA. THE BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE THE LOW
BEGINS TO OSCILLATE NORTHEASTWARD. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NORTHERN
LASSEN AND EAST MODOC COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CURRENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. THEREFORE, HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO TO
CORRESPOND WITH THIS TREND. GENERALLY, TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
50S FOR THE SIERRA AND 60S FOR WESTERN NEVADA. TEMPERATURES WARM
BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVES
TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES, BUT SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR SHOWERS MOVES NORTHEAST WITH THE
LOW LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...

NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10-15 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDS.
WINDS TO WEAKEN TONIGHT FOR TERMINALS BUT WILL KEEP GOING A BIT FROM
THE NE OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES. LOCALIZED LLWS AND TURBULENCE IS
POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE TAHOE THROUGH 12Z MONDAY, BUT OTHERWISE DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IMPACT FROM THESE WINDS. A STRONGER SW WIND EVENT IS
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY. HOON


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

000
FXUS65 KREV 192150
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
250 PM PDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL
BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA TUESDAY, WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS
LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WEST COAST IS BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND NORTH WINDS TO THE AREA. THIS DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL
REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHEAST PRESSURE/TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE TAHOE BASIN TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THESE GRADIENTS WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH FOR TAHOE. THIS WILL
LIKELY CREATE A LIGHT CHOP ON LAKE TAHOE, ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER CA/NV ON MONDAY, WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE
UPPER 70S IN WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 60S IN THE SIERRA. VERY DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION, WHICH WILL CREATE POOR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY MONDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE SWINGS INTO NORTHERN CA/NV ON TUESDAY, WITH A STRONG
110KT JET PUNCHING INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WINDS
WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ON TUESDAY AS 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40-45
KTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A MOUNTAIN WAVE/DOWNSLOPE WIND
PROFILE WITH STABLE LAYER ABOVE 700MB AND DECREASING WINDS ABOVE THE
RIDGETOP INVERSION. THIS WILL INCREASE VALLEY GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN
WITH RIDGE GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH IN THE SIERRA. MODELS ARE CONTINUING
TO INCREASE THE WIND POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY, AND IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT FROM LASSEN COUNTY
DOWN THROUGH THE RENO-CARSON-MINDEN AREAS AND INTO THE NORTH HALF OF
MONO COUNTY. BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR AREAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 395, SUCH AS SURPRISE VALLEY, HONEY LAKE, BLACK ROCK/SMOKE
CREEK, HUMBOLDT SINK, AND CARSON SINK. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTY WINDS
LIKELY CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MID RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAJOR FEATURES FROM
MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE DROPS OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA INTO SOUTHERN OREGON WHERE IT STAGNATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. SEVERAL TROUGHS PINWHEEL AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE VERY NORTHERN SIERRA, NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA, AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEVADA. THE BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE THE LOW
BEGINS TO OSCILLATE NORTHEASTWARD. HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR NORTHERN
LASSEN AND EAST MODOC COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CURRENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. THEREFORE, HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO TO
CORRESPOND WITH THIS TREND. GENERALLY, TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
50S FOR THE SIERRA AND 60S FOR WESTERN NEVADA. TEMPERATURES WARM
BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVES
TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES, BUT SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR SHOWERS MOVES NORTHEAST WITH THE
LOW LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...

NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10-15 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDS.
WINDS TO WEAKEN TONIGHT FOR TERMINALS BUT WILL KEEP GOING A BIT FROM
THE NE OVER THE SIERRA RIDGES. LOCALIZED LLWS AND TURBULENCE IS
POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE TAHOE THROUGH 12Z MONDAY, BUT OTHERWISE DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IMPACT FROM THESE WINDS. A STRONGER SW WIND EVENT IS
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY. HOON


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)