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000
FXUS65 KREV 230316
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
816 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SMOKE HAS STARTED TO THIN A BIT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS MAY
BE THE RESULT OF LESS WIND TRANSPORTING SMOKE INTO THE REGION OR
LESS FIRE ACTIVITY OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO. WITH THE DECREASE
IN SMOKE INTENSITY WE HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY THAT
WAS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING TO EXPIRE. THERE REMAINS A DENSE SMOKE
ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW AS WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AND PUSH
THICKER SMOKE BACK INTO THE REGION.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SURPRISE
VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY EARLIER HAVE DISSIPATED AS
THE TROUGH THIS CONVECTION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH HAS PUSHED TO THE
EAST. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO FORM LATER TONIGHT AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST AS FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR
AS GOOD WITH THIS TROUGH. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2014/

UPDATE...
JUST DOING A QUICK UPDATE TO COVER SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF
GERLACH AND THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE PUSHING
THROUGH THAT AREA. THIS IS WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN PAC AND COULD BE MORE OF A WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION SIGNATURE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE SRN CWA. WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR THAT AREA
AS FORCING APPEARS TO ABATE LATER THIS EVENING.

SMOKE IS RETURNING TO WRN NV NOW AFTER STAYING MAINLY IN THE
TRUCKEE AREA MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS ARE DRIVING
THIS SMOKE IN THE VALLEYS AND IT WILL LIKELY STAY TRAPPED HERE FOR
SOME TIME THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY THE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IN
EFFECT NOW RUNS UNTIL 8 PM...BUT WE WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THAT AND
MAY EXTEND IT INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. TYPICALLY THE SMOKE HAS
BEEN DISSIPATED LATE IN THE EVENING AS WINDS BEGIN TO DROP OFF. 20

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SMOKE AND
HAZE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT WESTERN NEVADA AND
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE CONTINUED SMOKE/HAZE
FROM THE KING FIRE AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

VISIBILITY AND AIR QUALITY CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE SMOKE FROM
THE KING FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND AS LONG AS THE FIRE BURNS ACTIVELY, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH THE SMOKE AND HAZE ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN
AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DENSE SMOKE ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WE HAVE ALSO ISSUED
ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE SMOKE ADVISORIES FOR TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE 5 MILES, THERE WILL BE
LOCALIZED CONDITIONS AND VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1 MILE AT TIMES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 MPH ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS
POSSIBLE. READ THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.

OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THRU
MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND MID 70S FOR THE
SIERRA VALLEYS. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
FAR NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA BY EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ELW

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE WEST COAST BY
THURSDAY WITH A 110KT JET CROSSING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AS A STRENGTHENED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING OF 35-40 KTS WINDS ALOFT
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THE
TROUGH SO EXPECTING INCREASES IN SURFACE HUMIDITY WHICH SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WIND GUSTS AROUND 40-45
MPH ARE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AND
MAY IMPACT MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SIERRA AND
WITH THE FRONT INTO WESTERN NEVADA MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 50.

BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS. TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL
EXIST BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS REGARDING HOW FAST THE UPPER LOW
DEPARTS THE REGION WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING A FASTER DEPARTURE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY BUT STILL EXPECTING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO PERSIST AS THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT PROMOTE
INCREASED INSTABILITY. WHETHER THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP EXISTS
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE FURTHER REFINED BUT SEEMS THE GFS
HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE EC WITH A SLOWER DEPARTURE. SOME
PRECIP COULD OCCUR IN THE FORM OF SNOWFALL FOR AREAS ABOVE
8000-9000 FEET WITH 700MB TEMPS COOLING AS MUCH AS -2C. BEYOND
SATURDAY, MOST MODELS EJECT THE LOW AND WE SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL
WARMING AND DRYING PATTERN INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. FUENTES

AVIATION...
SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SMOKE TRANSPORT SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED WED
AND THU. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SFC VIS TO LOWER TO 1-3 MILES FOR
KRNO/KCXP/KTVL/KTRK DURING THE DAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 03Z
AOA 3SM AGAIN. SLANTWISE VIS WILL ALSO BE DEGRADED WITH LESS THAN 1
SM POSSIBLE. SMOKE VIS FORECAST IS DIFFICULT AND DEPENDS LARGELY ON
FIRE BEHAVIOR. AS SUCH, VIS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM
UNTIL TRENDS CAN BE ESTABLISHED. FUENTES

FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A STRONG
PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT THAT PRECEDES THE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE SIERRA
FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL SIERRA AND CENTRAL NEVADA BY THURSDAY. RECOVERIES
WILL BE POOR FOR MID SLOPES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WHILE ONLY MODERATE FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

MEANWHILE, WINDS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BECOMING LOCALLY BREEZY IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED WIND PRONE AREAS
IN ZONE 278 AND 458 MAY BRIEFLY REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD.
ELSEWHERE, GUSTS SHOULD MAX OUT AROUND 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 10-20% RANGE. HAVE OPTED TO PUT A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH OUT FOR ZONES 270, 271, 278, AND 458 VALID WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SINCE GUSTS BECOME MORE INFLUENTIAL TO
FIRE BEHAVIOR AT 40 MPH.

WHILE WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THURSDAY DUE TO AN APPROACHING
JET STREAK, MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS THE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE MOVES ONSHORE. THIS MOISTURE WILL PUSH CRITERIA BELOW RED
FLAG THRESHOLDS REMOVING NORTHWESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA FROM THE THREAT AREA FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER,
THE DRY SLOT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL SIERRA AND
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. THE THREAT AREA FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
ALSO SHIFT TO ZONES 273, 453, AND 459 ON THURSDAY. IF THESE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE PRESENTED AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY FOR 273, 453, AND 459.

IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT 272 AND 450 ARE ON THE LOWER END OF
CONCERN AND WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE WATCH PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
THE TIMING OF THE DRY SLOT COINCIDENT WITH THESE ZONES OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WHEN HUMIDITY MAXIMIZES. HOWEVER, MID SLOPE AND HIGHER
ELEVATION RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR UNTIL THE MOISTURE ARRIVES ON
THURSDAY. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ458.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY NVZ002.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY NVZ003.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING CAZ270-271-278.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 230316
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
816 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SMOKE HAS STARTED TO THIN A BIT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS MAY
BE THE RESULT OF LESS WIND TRANSPORTING SMOKE INTO THE REGION OR
LESS FIRE ACTIVITY OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO. WITH THE DECREASE
IN SMOKE INTENSITY WE HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY THAT
WAS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING TO EXPIRE. THERE REMAINS A DENSE SMOKE
ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW AS WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AND PUSH
THICKER SMOKE BACK INTO THE REGION.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SURPRISE
VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY EARLIER HAVE DISSIPATED AS
THE TROUGH THIS CONVECTION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH HAS PUSHED TO THE
EAST. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO FORM LATER TONIGHT AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST AS FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR
AS GOOD WITH THIS TROUGH. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2014/

UPDATE...
JUST DOING A QUICK UPDATE TO COVER SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF
GERLACH AND THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE PUSHING
THROUGH THAT AREA. THIS IS WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN PAC AND COULD BE MORE OF A WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION SIGNATURE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE SRN CWA. WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR THAT AREA
AS FORCING APPEARS TO ABATE LATER THIS EVENING.

SMOKE IS RETURNING TO WRN NV NOW AFTER STAYING MAINLY IN THE
TRUCKEE AREA MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS ARE DRIVING
THIS SMOKE IN THE VALLEYS AND IT WILL LIKELY STAY TRAPPED HERE FOR
SOME TIME THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY THE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IN
EFFECT NOW RUNS UNTIL 8 PM...BUT WE WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THAT AND
MAY EXTEND IT INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. TYPICALLY THE SMOKE HAS
BEEN DISSIPATED LATE IN THE EVENING AS WINDS BEGIN TO DROP OFF. 20

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SMOKE AND
HAZE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT WESTERN NEVADA AND
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE CONTINUED SMOKE/HAZE
FROM THE KING FIRE AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

VISIBILITY AND AIR QUALITY CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE SMOKE FROM
THE KING FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND AS LONG AS THE FIRE BURNS ACTIVELY, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH THE SMOKE AND HAZE ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN
AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DENSE SMOKE ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WE HAVE ALSO ISSUED
ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE SMOKE ADVISORIES FOR TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE 5 MILES, THERE WILL BE
LOCALIZED CONDITIONS AND VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1 MILE AT TIMES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 MPH ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS
POSSIBLE. READ THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.

OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THRU
MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND MID 70S FOR THE
SIERRA VALLEYS. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
FAR NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA BY EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ELW

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE WEST COAST BY
THURSDAY WITH A 110KT JET CROSSING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AS A STRENGTHENED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING OF 35-40 KTS WINDS ALOFT
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THE
TROUGH SO EXPECTING INCREASES IN SURFACE HUMIDITY WHICH SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WIND GUSTS AROUND 40-45
MPH ARE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AND
MAY IMPACT MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SIERRA AND
WITH THE FRONT INTO WESTERN NEVADA MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 50.

BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS. TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL
EXIST BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS REGARDING HOW FAST THE UPPER LOW
DEPARTS THE REGION WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING A FASTER DEPARTURE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY BUT STILL EXPECTING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO PERSIST AS THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT PROMOTE
INCREASED INSTABILITY. WHETHER THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP EXISTS
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE FURTHER REFINED BUT SEEMS THE GFS
HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE EC WITH A SLOWER DEPARTURE. SOME
PRECIP COULD OCCUR IN THE FORM OF SNOWFALL FOR AREAS ABOVE
8000-9000 FEET WITH 700MB TEMPS COOLING AS MUCH AS -2C. BEYOND
SATURDAY, MOST MODELS EJECT THE LOW AND WE SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL
WARMING AND DRYING PATTERN INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. FUENTES

AVIATION...
SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SMOKE TRANSPORT SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED WED
AND THU. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SFC VIS TO LOWER TO 1-3 MILES FOR
KRNO/KCXP/KTVL/KTRK DURING THE DAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 03Z
AOA 3SM AGAIN. SLANTWISE VIS WILL ALSO BE DEGRADED WITH LESS THAN 1
SM POSSIBLE. SMOKE VIS FORECAST IS DIFFICULT AND DEPENDS LARGELY ON
FIRE BEHAVIOR. AS SUCH, VIS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM
UNTIL TRENDS CAN BE ESTABLISHED. FUENTES

FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A STRONG
PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT THAT PRECEDES THE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE SIERRA
FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL SIERRA AND CENTRAL NEVADA BY THURSDAY. RECOVERIES
WILL BE POOR FOR MID SLOPES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WHILE ONLY MODERATE FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

MEANWHILE, WINDS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BECOMING LOCALLY BREEZY IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED WIND PRONE AREAS
IN ZONE 278 AND 458 MAY BRIEFLY REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD.
ELSEWHERE, GUSTS SHOULD MAX OUT AROUND 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 10-20% RANGE. HAVE OPTED TO PUT A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH OUT FOR ZONES 270, 271, 278, AND 458 VALID WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SINCE GUSTS BECOME MORE INFLUENTIAL TO
FIRE BEHAVIOR AT 40 MPH.

WHILE WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THURSDAY DUE TO AN APPROACHING
JET STREAK, MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS THE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE MOVES ONSHORE. THIS MOISTURE WILL PUSH CRITERIA BELOW RED
FLAG THRESHOLDS REMOVING NORTHWESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA FROM THE THREAT AREA FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER,
THE DRY SLOT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL SIERRA AND
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. THE THREAT AREA FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
ALSO SHIFT TO ZONES 273, 453, AND 459 ON THURSDAY. IF THESE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE PRESENTED AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY FOR 273, 453, AND 459.

IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT 272 AND 450 ARE ON THE LOWER END OF
CONCERN AND WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE WATCH PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
THE TIMING OF THE DRY SLOT COINCIDENT WITH THESE ZONES OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WHEN HUMIDITY MAXIMIZES. HOWEVER, MID SLOPE AND HIGHER
ELEVATION RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR UNTIL THE MOISTURE ARRIVES ON
THURSDAY. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ458.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY NVZ002.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY NVZ003.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING CAZ270-271-278.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 230044
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
544 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
JUST DOING A QUICK UPDATE TO COVER SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF
GERLACH AND THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE PUSHING
THROUGH THAT AREA. THIS IS WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN PAC AND COULD BE MORE OF A WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION SIGNATURE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE SRN CWA. WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR THAT AREA
AS FORCING APPEARS TO ABATE LATER THIS EVENING.

SMOKE IS RETURNING TO WRN NV NOW AFTER STAYING MAINLY IN THE
TRUCKEE AREA MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS ARE DRIVING
THIS SMOKE IN THE VALLEYS AND IT WILL LIKELY STAY TRAPPED HERE FOR
SOME TIME THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY THE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IN
EFFECT NOW RUNS UNTIL 8 PM...BUT WE WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THAT AND
MAY EXTEND IT INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. TYPICALLY THE SMOKE HAS
BEEN DISSIPATED LATE IN THE EVENING AS WINDS BEGIN TO DROP OFF. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SMOKE AND
HAZE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT WESTERN NEVADA AND
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE CONTINUED SMOKE/HAZE
FROM THE KING FIRE AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

VISIBILITY AND AIR QUALITY CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE SMOKE FROM
THE KING FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND AS LONG AS THE FIRE BURNS ACTIVELY, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH THE SMOKE AND HAZE ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN
AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DENSE SMOKE ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WE HAVE ALSO ISSUED
ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE SMOKE ADVISORIES FOR TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE 5 MILES, THERE WILL BE
LOCALIZED CONDITIONS AND VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1 MILE AT TIMES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 MPH ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS
POSSIBLE. READ THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.

OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THRU
MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND MID 70S FOR THE
SIERRA VALLEYS. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
FAR NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA BY EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ELW

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE WEST COAST BY
THURSDAY WITH A 110KT JET CROSSING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AS A STRENGTHENED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING OF 35-40 KTS WINDS ALOFT
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THE
TROUGH SO EXPECTING INCREASES IN SURFACE HUMIDITY WHICH SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WIND GUSTS AROUND 40-45
MPH ARE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AND
MAY IMPACT MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SIERRA AND
WITH THE FRONT INTO WESTERN NEVADA MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 50.

BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS. TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL
EXIST BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS REGARDING HOW FAST THE UPPER LOW
DEPARTS THE REGION WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING A FASTER DEPARTURE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY BUT STILL EXPECTING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO PERSIST AS THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT PROMOTE
INCREASED INSTABILITY. WHETHER THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP EXISTS
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE FURTHER REFINED BUT SEEMS THE GFS
HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE EC WITH A SLOWER DEPARTURE. SOME
PRECIP COULD OCCUR IN THE FORM OF SNOWFALL FOR AREAS ABOVE
8000-9000 FEET WITH 700MB TEMPS COOLING AS MUCH AS -2C. BEYOND
SATURDAY, MOST MODELS EJECT THE LOW AND WE SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL
WARMING AND DRYING PATTERN INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. FUENTES

AVIATION...
SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SMOKE TRANSPORT SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED WED
AND THU. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SFC VIS TO LOWER TO 1-3 MILES FOR
KRNO/KCXP/KTVL/KTRK DURING THE DAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 03Z
AOA 3SM AGAIN. SLANTWISE VIS WILL ALSO BE DEGRADED WITH LESS THAN 1
SM POSSIBLE. SMOKE VIS FORECAST IS DIFFICULT AND DEPENDS LARGELY ON
FIRE BEHAVIOR. AS SUCH, VIS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM
UNTIL TRENDS CAN BE ESTABLISHED. FUENTES

FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A STRONG
PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT THAT PRECEDES THE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE SIERRA
FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL SIERRA AND CENTRAL NEVADA BY THURSDAY. RECOVERIES
WILL BE POOR FOR MID SLOPES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WHILE ONLY MODERATE FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

MEANWHILE, WINDS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BECOMING LOCALLY BREEZY IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED WIND PRONE AREAS
IN ZONE 278 AND 458 MAY BRIEFLY REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD.
ELSEWHERE, GUSTS SHOULD MAX OUT AROUND 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 10-20% RANGE. HAVE OPTED TO PUT A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH OUT FOR ZONES 270, 271, 278, AND 458 VALID WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SINCE GUSTS BECOME MORE INFLUENTIAL TO
FIRE BEHAVIOR AT 40 MPH.

WHILE WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THURSDAY DUE TO AN APPROACHING
JET STREAK, MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS THE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE MOVES ONSHORE. THIS MOISTURE WILL PUSH CRITERIA BELOW RED
FLAG THRESHOLDS REMOVING NORTHWESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA FROM THE THREAT AREA FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER,
THE DRY SLOT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL SIERRA AND
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. THE THREAT AREA FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
ALSO SHIFT TO ZONES 273, 453, AND 459 ON THURSDAY. IF THESE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE PRESENTED AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY FOR 273, 453, AND 459.

IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT 272 AND 450 ARE ON THE LOWER END OF
CONCERN AND WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE WATCH PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
THE TIMING OF THE DRY SLOT COINCIDENT WITH THESE ZONES OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WHEN HUMIDITY MAXIMIZES. HOWEVER, MID SLOPE AND HIGHER
ELEVATION RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR UNTIL THE MOISTURE ARRIVES ON
THURSDAY. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ458.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ002.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY NVZ002.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ003.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY NVZ003.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING CAZ270-271-278.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ072.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 230044
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
544 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
JUST DOING A QUICK UPDATE TO COVER SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF
GERLACH AND THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE PUSHING
THROUGH THAT AREA. THIS IS WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN PAC AND COULD BE MORE OF A WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION SIGNATURE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE SRN CWA. WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOR THAT AREA
AS FORCING APPEARS TO ABATE LATER THIS EVENING.

SMOKE IS RETURNING TO WRN NV NOW AFTER STAYING MAINLY IN THE
TRUCKEE AREA MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS ARE DRIVING
THIS SMOKE IN THE VALLEYS AND IT WILL LIKELY STAY TRAPPED HERE FOR
SOME TIME THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY THE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IN
EFFECT NOW RUNS UNTIL 8 PM...BUT WE WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THAT AND
MAY EXTEND IT INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. TYPICALLY THE SMOKE HAS
BEEN DISSIPATED LATE IN THE EVENING AS WINDS BEGIN TO DROP OFF. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SMOKE AND
HAZE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT WESTERN NEVADA AND
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE CONTINUED SMOKE/HAZE
FROM THE KING FIRE AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

VISIBILITY AND AIR QUALITY CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE SMOKE FROM
THE KING FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND AS LONG AS THE FIRE BURNS ACTIVELY, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH THE SMOKE AND HAZE ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN
AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DENSE SMOKE ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WE HAVE ALSO ISSUED
ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE SMOKE ADVISORIES FOR TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE 5 MILES, THERE WILL BE
LOCALIZED CONDITIONS AND VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1 MILE AT TIMES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 MPH ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS
POSSIBLE. READ THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.

OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THRU
MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND MID 70S FOR THE
SIERRA VALLEYS. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
FAR NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA BY EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ELW

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE WEST COAST BY
THURSDAY WITH A 110KT JET CROSSING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AS A STRENGTHENED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING OF 35-40 KTS WINDS ALOFT
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THE
TROUGH SO EXPECTING INCREASES IN SURFACE HUMIDITY WHICH SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WIND GUSTS AROUND 40-45
MPH ARE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AND
MAY IMPACT MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SIERRA AND
WITH THE FRONT INTO WESTERN NEVADA MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 50.

BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS. TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL
EXIST BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS REGARDING HOW FAST THE UPPER LOW
DEPARTS THE REGION WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING A FASTER DEPARTURE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY BUT STILL EXPECTING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO PERSIST AS THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT PROMOTE
INCREASED INSTABILITY. WHETHER THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP EXISTS
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE FURTHER REFINED BUT SEEMS THE GFS
HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE EC WITH A SLOWER DEPARTURE. SOME
PRECIP COULD OCCUR IN THE FORM OF SNOWFALL FOR AREAS ABOVE
8000-9000 FEET WITH 700MB TEMPS COOLING AS MUCH AS -2C. BEYOND
SATURDAY, MOST MODELS EJECT THE LOW AND WE SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL
WARMING AND DRYING PATTERN INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. FUENTES

AVIATION...
SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SMOKE TRANSPORT SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED WED
AND THU. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SFC VIS TO LOWER TO 1-3 MILES FOR
KRNO/KCXP/KTVL/KTRK DURING THE DAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 03Z
AOA 3SM AGAIN. SLANTWISE VIS WILL ALSO BE DEGRADED WITH LESS THAN 1
SM POSSIBLE. SMOKE VIS FORECAST IS DIFFICULT AND DEPENDS LARGELY ON
FIRE BEHAVIOR. AS SUCH, VIS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM
UNTIL TRENDS CAN BE ESTABLISHED. FUENTES

FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A STRONG
PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT THAT PRECEDES THE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE SIERRA
FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL SIERRA AND CENTRAL NEVADA BY THURSDAY. RECOVERIES
WILL BE POOR FOR MID SLOPES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WHILE ONLY MODERATE FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

MEANWHILE, WINDS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BECOMING LOCALLY BREEZY IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED WIND PRONE AREAS
IN ZONE 278 AND 458 MAY BRIEFLY REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD.
ELSEWHERE, GUSTS SHOULD MAX OUT AROUND 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 10-20% RANGE. HAVE OPTED TO PUT A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH OUT FOR ZONES 270, 271, 278, AND 458 VALID WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SINCE GUSTS BECOME MORE INFLUENTIAL TO
FIRE BEHAVIOR AT 40 MPH.

WHILE WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THURSDAY DUE TO AN APPROACHING
JET STREAK, MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS THE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE MOVES ONSHORE. THIS MOISTURE WILL PUSH CRITERIA BELOW RED
FLAG THRESHOLDS REMOVING NORTHWESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA FROM THE THREAT AREA FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER,
THE DRY SLOT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL SIERRA AND
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. THE THREAT AREA FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
ALSO SHIFT TO ZONES 273, 453, AND 459 ON THURSDAY. IF THESE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE PRESENTED AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY FOR 273, 453, AND 459.

IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT 272 AND 450 ARE ON THE LOWER END OF
CONCERN AND WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE WATCH PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
THE TIMING OF THE DRY SLOT COINCIDENT WITH THESE ZONES OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WHEN HUMIDITY MAXIMIZES. HOWEVER, MID SLOPE AND HIGHER
ELEVATION RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR UNTIL THE MOISTURE ARRIVES ON
THURSDAY. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ458.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ002.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY NVZ002.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ003.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY NVZ003.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING CAZ270-271-278.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ072.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 222150
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
250 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SMOKE AND
HAZE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT WESTERN NEVADA AND
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE CONTINUED SMOKE/HAZE
FROM THE KING FIRE AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

VISIBILITY AND AIR QUALITY CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE SMOKE FROM
THE KING FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND AS LONG AS THE FIRE BURNS ACTIVELY, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH THE SMOKE AND HAZE ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN
AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DENSE SMOKE ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WE HAVE ALSO ISSUED
ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE SMOKE ADVISORIES FOR TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE 5 MILES, THERE WILL BE
LOCALIZED CONDITIONS AND VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1 MILE AT TIMES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 MPH ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS
POSSIBLE. READ THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.

OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THRU
MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND MID 70S FOR THE
SIERRA VALLEYS. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
FAR NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA BY EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ELW

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE WEST COAST BY
THURSDAY WITH A 110KT JET CROSSING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AS A STRENGTHENED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING OF 35-40 KTS WINDS ALOFT
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THE
TROUGH SO EXPECTING INCREASES IN SURFACE HUMIDITY WHICH SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WIND GUSTS AROUND 40-45
MPH ARE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AND
MAY IMPACT MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SIERRA AND
WITH THE FRONT INTO WESTERN NEVADA MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 50.

BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS. TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL
EXIST BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS REGARDING HOW FAST THE UPPER LOW
DEPARTS THE REGION WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING A FASTER DEPARTURE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY BUT STILL EXPECTING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO PERSIST AS THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT PROMOTE
INCREASED INSTABILITY. WHETHER THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP EXISTS
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE FURTHER REFINED BUT SEEMS THE GFS
HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE EC WITH A SLOWER DEPARTURE. SOME
PRECIP COULD OCCUR IN THE FORM OF SNOWFALL FOR AREAS ABOVE
8000-9000 FEET WITH 700MB TEMPS COOLING AS MUCH AS -2C. BEYOND
SATURDAY, MOST MODELS EJECT THE LOW AND WE SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL
WARMING AND DRYING PATTERN INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...
SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SMOKE TRANSPORT SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED WED
AND THU. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SFC VIS TO LOWER TO 1-3 MILES FOR
KRNO/KCXP/KTVL/KTRK DURING THE DAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 03Z
AOA 3SM AGAIN. SLANTWISE VIS WILL ALSO BE DEGRADED WITH LESS THAN 1
SM POSSIBLE. SMOKE VIS FORECAST IS DIFFICULT AND DEPENDS LARGELY ON
FIRE BEHAVIOR. AS SUCH, VIS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM
UNTIL TRENDS CAN BE ESTABLISHED. FUENTES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A STRONG
PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT THAT PRECEDES THE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE SIERRA
FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL SIERRA AND CENTRAL NEVADA BY THURSDAY. RECOVERIES
WILL BE POOR FOR MID SLOPES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WHILE ONLY MODERATE FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

MEANWHILE, WINDS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BECOMING LOCALLY BREEZY IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED WIND PRONE AREAS
IN ZONE 278 AND 458 MAY BRIEFLY REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD.
ELSEWHERE, GUSTS SHOULD MAX OUT AROUND 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 10-20% RANGE. HAVE OPTED TO PUT A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH OUT FOR ZONES 270, 271, 278, AND 458 VALID WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SINCE GUSTS BECOME MORE INFLUENTIAL TO
FIRE BEHAVIOR AT 40 MPH.

WHILE WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THURSDAY DUE TO AN APPROACHING
JET STREAK, MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS THE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE MOVES ONSHORE. THIS MOISTURE WILL PUSH CRITERIA BELOW RED
FLAG THRESHOLDS REMOVING NORTHWESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA FROM THE THREAT AREA FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER,
THE DRY SLOT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL SIERRA AND
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. THE THREAT AREA FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
ALSO SHIFT TO ZONES 273, 453, AND 459 ON THURSDAY. IF THESE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE PRESENTED AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY FOR 273, 453, AND 459.

IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT 272 AND 450 ARE ON THE LOWER END OF
CONCERN AND WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE WATCH PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
THE TIMING OF THE DRY SLOT COINCIDENT WITH THESE ZONES OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WHEN HUMIDITY MAXIMIZES. HOWEVER, MID SLOPE AND HIGHER
ELEVATION RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR UNTIL THE MOISTURE ARRIVES ON
THURSDAY. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ458.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ002.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY NVZ002.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ003.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY NVZ003.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING CAZ270-271-278.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ072.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 222150
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
250 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SMOKE AND
HAZE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT WESTERN NEVADA AND
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE CONTINUED SMOKE/HAZE
FROM THE KING FIRE AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.

VISIBILITY AND AIR QUALITY CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE SMOKE FROM
THE KING FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AND AS LONG AS THE FIRE BURNS ACTIVELY, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH THE SMOKE AND HAZE ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN
AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DENSE SMOKE ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WE HAVE ALSO ISSUED
ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE SMOKE ADVISORIES FOR TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE 5 MILES, THERE WILL BE
LOCALIZED CONDITIONS AND VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1 MILE AT TIMES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35 MPH ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS
POSSIBLE. READ THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.

OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THRU
MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND MID 70S FOR THE
SIERRA VALLEYS. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
FAR NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA BY EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ELW

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE WEST COAST BY
THURSDAY WITH A 110KT JET CROSSING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AS A STRENGTHENED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING OF 35-40 KTS WINDS ALOFT
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THE
TROUGH SO EXPECTING INCREASES IN SURFACE HUMIDITY WHICH SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WIND GUSTS AROUND 40-45
MPH ARE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AND
MAY IMPACT MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SIERRA AND
WITH THE FRONT INTO WESTERN NEVADA MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 50.

BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS. TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL
EXIST BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS REGARDING HOW FAST THE UPPER LOW
DEPARTS THE REGION WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING A FASTER DEPARTURE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY BUT STILL EXPECTING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO PERSIST AS THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT PROMOTE
INCREASED INSTABILITY. WHETHER THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP EXISTS
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE FURTHER REFINED BUT SEEMS THE GFS
HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE EC WITH A SLOWER DEPARTURE. SOME
PRECIP COULD OCCUR IN THE FORM OF SNOWFALL FOR AREAS ABOVE
8000-9000 FEET WITH 700MB TEMPS COOLING AS MUCH AS -2C. BEYOND
SATURDAY, MOST MODELS EJECT THE LOW AND WE SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL
WARMING AND DRYING PATTERN INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...
SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SMOKE TRANSPORT SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED WED
AND THU. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SFC VIS TO LOWER TO 1-3 MILES FOR
KRNO/KCXP/KTVL/KTRK DURING THE DAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER 03Z
AOA 3SM AGAIN. SLANTWISE VIS WILL ALSO BE DEGRADED WITH LESS THAN 1
SM POSSIBLE. SMOKE VIS FORECAST IS DIFFICULT AND DEPENDS LARGELY ON
FIRE BEHAVIOR. AS SUCH, VIS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM
UNTIL TRENDS CAN BE ESTABLISHED. FUENTES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A STRONG
PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT THAT PRECEDES THE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE SIERRA
FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DRY SLOT
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL SIERRA AND CENTRAL NEVADA BY THURSDAY. RECOVERIES
WILL BE POOR FOR MID SLOPES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WHILE ONLY MODERATE FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

MEANWHILE, WINDS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BECOMING LOCALLY BREEZY IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED WIND PRONE AREAS
IN ZONE 278 AND 458 MAY BRIEFLY REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDESPREAD.
ELSEWHERE, GUSTS SHOULD MAX OUT AROUND 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 10-20% RANGE. HAVE OPTED TO PUT A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH OUT FOR ZONES 270, 271, 278, AND 458 VALID WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SINCE GUSTS BECOME MORE INFLUENTIAL TO
FIRE BEHAVIOR AT 40 MPH.

WHILE WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THURSDAY DUE TO AN APPROACHING
JET STREAK, MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS THE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE MOVES ONSHORE. THIS MOISTURE WILL PUSH CRITERIA BELOW RED
FLAG THRESHOLDS REMOVING NORTHWESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA FROM THE THREAT AREA FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER,
THE DRY SLOT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL SIERRA AND
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. THE THREAT AREA FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
ALSO SHIFT TO ZONES 273, 453, AND 459 ON THURSDAY. IF THESE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE PRESENTED AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY FOR 273, 453, AND 459.

IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT 272 AND 450 ARE ON THE LOWER END OF
CONCERN AND WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE WATCH PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
THE TIMING OF THE DRY SLOT COINCIDENT WITH THESE ZONES OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WHEN HUMIDITY MAXIMIZES. HOWEVER, MID SLOPE AND HIGHER
ELEVATION RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR UNTIL THE MOISTURE ARRIVES ON
THURSDAY. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ458.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ002.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY NVZ002.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ003.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY NVZ003.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING CAZ270-271-278.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ072.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 221534
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
834 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE FOR THOSE AREAS. A
DRY SLOT PUSHING IN EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DECREASE BELOW THRESHOLDS ALLOWING FOR THESE CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. WEISHAHN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ALONG
WITH SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE KING FIRE. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST COAST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY 5 MILES OR GREATER ACROSS THE SMOKE
ADVISORY AREA, WE WILL ADJUST THE VALID TIMES TO EXCLUDE MOST OF
THE MORNING FOR THE TAHOE BASIN, AND EXCLUDE THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR THE RENO-CARSON VICINITY. VISIBILITY IS UNLIKELY TO
DROP OFF VERY MUCH THIS MORNING FROM SMOKE ALONE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE AROUND TRUCKEE WHERE FOG COULD BE MORE RESPONSIBLE
FOR POOR VISIBILITY THIS MORNING. AS WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS TO THE SIERRA TODAY, ADDITIONAL SMOKE COULD RETURN BY LATE
MORNING IN THE TAHOE BASIN. FOR THE RENO-CARSON CITY AREA, THE
WEAK AFTERNOON ZEPHYR IS MOST LIKELY TO TRANSPORT ADDITIONAL SMOKE
BY MID AFTERNOON. WHILE THE VISIBILITY MAY NOT DROP ALL THE WAY
DOWN TO 1 MILE, WE DID NOT WANT TO REMOVE THE SMOKE ADVISORY SINCE
THE KING FIRE COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE DUE TO DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WEST OF THE SIERRA
CREST.

HAZE AND SMOKE WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THRU WEDNESDAY AS THE
KING FIRE WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BURN ACTIVELY. PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONGER, WHILE ZEPHYR
BREEZES INCREASE FOR WESTERN NV EACH DAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

OTHER THAN THE SMOKE AND HAZE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR WESTERN NV AND
75-80 DEGREES FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
REACH NORTHEAST CA BY LATE WED NIGHT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH SLOWLY
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH THAT
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE BY THAT TIME. MJD

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS THE GFS/EC CONTINUE TO DIFFER
ON THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH/UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER ALTHOUGH IT IS
SLOWING ONCE THE LOW MOVES INTO UTAH. THE EC IS EVEN SLOWER THIS
MORNING NOT MOVING OUT THE UPPER LOW UNTIL LATE SUNDAY. THE EC SEEMS
OVERLY SLOW NOW AND ITS ENSEMBLE IS A BIT FASTER AND SHOWING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH A POTENTIAL FASTER SPEED.

THAT SAID, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY (GFS)
OR FRIDAY (EC). TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. BEHIND THE FRONT, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY APPEARS TO
BE THE BEST DAY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AS THE EC CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME MODERATE PRECIP IN THE DEFORMATION BAND NORTH OF THE LOW
FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO FALL TO 8000-9000
FEET BEHIND THE FRONT SO SOME PEAKS MAY SEE A LIGHT CAPPING OF
SNOW.

BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT WIND TO WEAKEN A BIT AS SFC PRESSURE/THERMAL
GRADIENTS AND WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN. TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL DOWN WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70 IN WESTERN NV AND LOW 60S FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS,
WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WALLMANN

AVIATION...

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. VIS CONTINUES TO BE
VFR THIS MORNING AT MOST TERMINALS IN RENO-TAHOE EXCEPT FOR KTRK
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER BETWEEN 3-5 MILES THIS MORNING. AFTER
18Z, EXPECT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE THE SMOKE LIKELY
DROPPING VIS TO 1-3 MILES FOR KRNO/KCXP/KTVL/KTRK WITH KTRK
SEEING THE LOWEST VIS. SIMILAR TO THIS EVENING, EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VIS AFTER 03Z AOA 3SM AGAIN. THE SAME IDEAS LOOK TO
REPEAT TUESDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA OF SMOKE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SW WIND
GUSTS TO 20 KTS, MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ458.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ002.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING NVZ003.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING CAZ270-271-278.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 221534
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
834 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE FOR THOSE AREAS. A
DRY SLOT PUSHING IN EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO DECREASE BELOW THRESHOLDS ALLOWING FOR THESE CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. WEISHAHN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ALONG
WITH SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE KING FIRE. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST COAST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY 5 MILES OR GREATER ACROSS THE SMOKE
ADVISORY AREA, WE WILL ADJUST THE VALID TIMES TO EXCLUDE MOST OF
THE MORNING FOR THE TAHOE BASIN, AND EXCLUDE THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR THE RENO-CARSON VICINITY. VISIBILITY IS UNLIKELY TO
DROP OFF VERY MUCH THIS MORNING FROM SMOKE ALONE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE AROUND TRUCKEE WHERE FOG COULD BE MORE RESPONSIBLE
FOR POOR VISIBILITY THIS MORNING. AS WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS TO THE SIERRA TODAY, ADDITIONAL SMOKE COULD RETURN BY LATE
MORNING IN THE TAHOE BASIN. FOR THE RENO-CARSON CITY AREA, THE
WEAK AFTERNOON ZEPHYR IS MOST LIKELY TO TRANSPORT ADDITIONAL SMOKE
BY MID AFTERNOON. WHILE THE VISIBILITY MAY NOT DROP ALL THE WAY
DOWN TO 1 MILE, WE DID NOT WANT TO REMOVE THE SMOKE ADVISORY SINCE
THE KING FIRE COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE DUE TO DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WEST OF THE SIERRA
CREST.

HAZE AND SMOKE WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THRU WEDNESDAY AS THE
KING FIRE WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BURN ACTIVELY. PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONGER, WHILE ZEPHYR
BREEZES INCREASE FOR WESTERN NV EACH DAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

OTHER THAN THE SMOKE AND HAZE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR WESTERN NV AND
75-80 DEGREES FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
REACH NORTHEAST CA BY LATE WED NIGHT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH SLOWLY
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH THAT
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE BY THAT TIME. MJD

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS THE GFS/EC CONTINUE TO DIFFER
ON THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH/UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER ALTHOUGH IT IS
SLOWING ONCE THE LOW MOVES INTO UTAH. THE EC IS EVEN SLOWER THIS
MORNING NOT MOVING OUT THE UPPER LOW UNTIL LATE SUNDAY. THE EC SEEMS
OVERLY SLOW NOW AND ITS ENSEMBLE IS A BIT FASTER AND SHOWING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH A POTENTIAL FASTER SPEED.

THAT SAID, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY (GFS)
OR FRIDAY (EC). TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. BEHIND THE FRONT, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY APPEARS TO
BE THE BEST DAY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AS THE EC CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME MODERATE PRECIP IN THE DEFORMATION BAND NORTH OF THE LOW
FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO FALL TO 8000-9000
FEET BEHIND THE FRONT SO SOME PEAKS MAY SEE A LIGHT CAPPING OF
SNOW.

BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT WIND TO WEAKEN A BIT AS SFC PRESSURE/THERMAL
GRADIENTS AND WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN. TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL DOWN WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70 IN WESTERN NV AND LOW 60S FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS,
WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WALLMANN

AVIATION...

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. VIS CONTINUES TO BE
VFR THIS MORNING AT MOST TERMINALS IN RENO-TAHOE EXCEPT FOR KTRK
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER BETWEEN 3-5 MILES THIS MORNING. AFTER
18Z, EXPECT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE THE SMOKE LIKELY
DROPPING VIS TO 1-3 MILES FOR KRNO/KCXP/KTVL/KTRK WITH KTRK
SEEING THE LOWEST VIS. SIMILAR TO THIS EVENING, EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VIS AFTER 03Z AOA 3SM AGAIN. THE SAME IDEAS LOOK TO
REPEAT TUESDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA OF SMOKE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SW WIND
GUSTS TO 20 KTS, MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING NVZ458.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ002.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING NVZ003.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING CAZ270-271-278.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 220959
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
259 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ALONG
WITH SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE KING FIRE. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST COAST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY 5 MILES OR GREATER ACROSS THE SMOKE
ADVISORY AREA, WE WILL ADJUST THE VALID TIMES TO EXCLUDE MOST OF
THE MORNING FOR THE TAHOE BASIN, AND EXCLUDE THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR THE RENO-CARSON VICINITY. VISIBILITY IS UNLIKELY TO
DROP OFF VERY MUCH THIS MORNING FROM SMOKE ALONE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE AROUND TRUCKEE WHERE FOG COULD BE MORE RESPONSIBLE
FOR POOR VISIBILITY THIS MORNING. AS WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS TO THE SIERRA TODAY, ADDITIONAL SMOKE COULD RETURN BY LATE
MORNING IN THE TAHOE BASIN. FOR THE RENO-CARSON CITY AREA, THE
WEAK AFTERNOON ZEPHYR IS MOST LIKELY TO TRANSPORT ADDITIONAL SMOKE
BY MID AFTERNOON. WHILE THE VISIBILITY MAY NOT DROP ALL THE WAY
DOWN TO 1 MILE, WE DID NOT WANT TO REMOVE THE SMOKE ADVISORY SINCE
THE KING FIRE COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE DUE TO DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WEST OF THE SIERRA
CREST.

HAZE AND SMOKE WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THRU WEDNESDAY AS THE
KING FIRE WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BURN ACTIVELY. PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONGER, WHILE ZEPHYR
BREEZES INCREASE FOR WESTERN NV EACH DAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

OTHER THAN THE SMOKE AND HAZE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR WESTERN NV AND
75-80 DEGREES FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
REACH NORTHEAST CA BY LATE WED NIGHT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH SLOWLY
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH THAT
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE BY THAT TIME. MJD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS THE GFS/EC CONTINUE TO DIFFER
ON THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH/UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER ALTHOUGH IT IS
SLOWING ONCE THE LOW MOVES INTO UTAH. THE EC IS EVEN SLOWER THIS
MORNING NOT MOVING OUT THE UPPER LOW UNTIL LATE SUNDAY. THE EC SEEMS
OVERLY SLOW NOW AND ITS ENSEMBLE IS A BIT FASTER AND SHOWING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH A POTENTIAL FASTER SPEED.

THAT SAID, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY (GFS)
OR FRIDAY (EC). TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. BEHIND THE FRONT, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY APPEARS TO
BE THE BEST DAY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AS THE EC CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME MODERATE PRECIP IN THE DEFORMATION BAND NORTH OF THE LOW
FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO FALL TO 8000-9000
FEET BEHIND THE FRONT SO SOME PEAKS MAY SEE A LIGHT CAPPING OF
SNOW.

BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT WIND TO WEAKEN A BIT AS SFC PRESSURE/THERMAL
GRADIENTS AND WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN. TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL DOWN WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70 IN WESTERN NV AND LOW 60S FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS,
WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. VIS CONTINUES TO BE
VFR THIS MORNING AT MOST TERMINALS IN RENO-TAHOE EXCEPT FOR KTRK
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER BETWEEN 3-5 MILES THIS MORNING. AFTER
18Z, EXPECT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE THE SMOKE LIKELY
DROPPING VIS TO 1-3 MILES FOR KRNO/KCXP/KTVL/KTRK WITH KTRK
SEEING THE LOWEST VIS. SIMILAR TO THIS EVENING, EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VIS AFTER 03Z AOA 3SM AGAIN. THE SAME IDEAS LOOK TO
REPEAT TUESDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA OF SMOKE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SW WIND
GUSTS TO 20 KTS, MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING NVZ002.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING NVZ003.

CA...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 220959
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
259 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ALONG
WITH SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE KING FIRE. STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST COAST WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY 5 MILES OR GREATER ACROSS THE SMOKE
ADVISORY AREA, WE WILL ADJUST THE VALID TIMES TO EXCLUDE MOST OF
THE MORNING FOR THE TAHOE BASIN, AND EXCLUDE THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR THE RENO-CARSON VICINITY. VISIBILITY IS UNLIKELY TO
DROP OFF VERY MUCH THIS MORNING FROM SMOKE ALONE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE AROUND TRUCKEE WHERE FOG COULD BE MORE RESPONSIBLE
FOR POOR VISIBILITY THIS MORNING. AS WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS TO THE SIERRA TODAY, ADDITIONAL SMOKE COULD RETURN BY LATE
MORNING IN THE TAHOE BASIN. FOR THE RENO-CARSON CITY AREA, THE
WEAK AFTERNOON ZEPHYR IS MOST LIKELY TO TRANSPORT ADDITIONAL SMOKE
BY MID AFTERNOON. WHILE THE VISIBILITY MAY NOT DROP ALL THE WAY
DOWN TO 1 MILE, WE DID NOT WANT TO REMOVE THE SMOKE ADVISORY SINCE
THE KING FIRE COULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE DUE TO DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WEST OF THE SIERRA
CREST.

HAZE AND SMOKE WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THRU WEDNESDAY AS THE
KING FIRE WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BURN ACTIVELY. PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONGER, WHILE ZEPHYR
BREEZES INCREASE FOR WESTERN NV EACH DAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

OTHER THAN THE SMOKE AND HAZE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR WESTERN NV AND
75-80 DEGREES FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY
REACH NORTHEAST CA BY LATE WED NIGHT WITH THE NEXT TROUGH SLOWLY
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH THAT
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE BY THAT TIME. MJD

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM AS THE GFS/EC CONTINUE TO DIFFER
ON THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH/UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER ALTHOUGH IT IS
SLOWING ONCE THE LOW MOVES INTO UTAH. THE EC IS EVEN SLOWER THIS
MORNING NOT MOVING OUT THE UPPER LOW UNTIL LATE SUNDAY. THE EC SEEMS
OVERLY SLOW NOW AND ITS ENSEMBLE IS A BIT FASTER AND SHOWING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH A POTENTIAL FASTER SPEED.

THAT SAID, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY (GFS)
OR FRIDAY (EC). TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. BEHIND THE FRONT, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY APPEARS TO
BE THE BEST DAY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AS THE EC CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME MODERATE PRECIP IN THE DEFORMATION BAND NORTH OF THE LOW
FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO FALL TO 8000-9000
FEET BEHIND THE FRONT SO SOME PEAKS MAY SEE A LIGHT CAPPING OF
SNOW.

BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT WIND TO WEAKEN A BIT AS SFC PRESSURE/THERMAL
GRADIENTS AND WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN. TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL DOWN WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70 IN WESTERN NV AND LOW 60S FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS,
WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. VIS CONTINUES TO BE
VFR THIS MORNING AT MOST TERMINALS IN RENO-TAHOE EXCEPT FOR KTRK
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER BETWEEN 3-5 MILES THIS MORNING. AFTER
18Z, EXPECT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE THE SMOKE LIKELY
DROPPING VIS TO 1-3 MILES FOR KRNO/KCXP/KTVL/KTRK WITH KTRK
SEEING THE LOWEST VIS. SIMILAR TO THIS EVENING, EXPECT SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VIS AFTER 03Z AOA 3SM AGAIN. THE SAME IDEAS LOOK TO
REPEAT TUESDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA OF SMOKE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SW WIND
GUSTS TO 20 KTS, MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING NVZ002.

     DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING NVZ003.

CA...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 220302 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
802 PM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL NV LIFTING NE
TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THIS IS IN LINE WITH
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE. CONVECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF
THE CWA IS DISSIPATING...BUT THIS CONVECTION DID PRODUCE SOME
HEAVIER RAINS OVER ISOLATED AREAS TODAY RESULTING IN TWO REPORTS
OF WATER AND DEBRIS OVER STATE HIGHWAYS IN SOUTHEAST CHURCHILL
COUNTY. THE HRRR STILL SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR
NRN CWA LATER THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK VORTICITY LOBE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND A LITTLE LINGERING CONVECTION
OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE DECREASED POPS
FOR THE FAR WEST AND SOUTH BUT LEFT SOME SMALL POPS IN OVER THE
FAR NORTH AND EAST THROUGH LATE EVENING. AS UPPER LOW EXITS LATE
TONIGHT DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR MONDAY.

ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE THAT HAS MOVED
BACK INTO THE WESTERN PART OF NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THE
SMOKE WAS A LITTLE THICKER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE THINNING OF
THE SMOKE IS LIKELY A RESPONSE TO LESS FIRE ACTIVITY AND LIGHTER
WINDS THIS EVENING. SMOKE FORECASTING CAN BE SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT AS
IT RELIES LARGELY ON THE INTENSITY OF THE FIRE. EVEN THOUGH THE
SMOKE HAS THINNED WE COULD SEE A RESURGENCE LATE TONIGHT AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE...OR IT COULD THIN MORE. WILL LEAVE
THE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IN PLACE AS WINDS MONDAY SHOULD BECOME
MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND DRIVE ANY SMOKE GENERATED BACK
THIS DIRECTION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER WINDS LATER IN THE
WEEK WILL RESULT IN EVEN MORE SMOKE IN THE TAHOE BASIN AND WRN
NEVADA...BUT THIS REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ALONG
WITH SMOKE TO THE REGION FROM THE ONGOING KING FIRE. STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASING WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

LIGHT RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH THE SIERRA AND UP THROUGH FAR NORTHWEST
NEVADA AS THE LOW PRESSURE PIVOTED THROUGH THE AREA. THE AREA THAT
RECEIVED THE HIGHEST RAINFALL WAS IN EASTERN PERSHING AND CHURCHILL
COUNTIES LAST NIGHT WHERE UP TO 0.50" FELL. OTHERWISE, ONLY LIGHT
RAIN WAS REPORTED FOR OTHER AREAS.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN WESTERN
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. ONE SHOWER THAT MOVED INTO FERNLEY EARLIER
PRODUCED BRIEF, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA. THIS GOES TO SHOW
THAT THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR IS VERY HIGH, WITH EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS, THEN TAPER OFF AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION.

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED OVER THE REGION ALL DAY, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER AND KEEPING THE AIR FROM MIXING. THIS WAS
A BIG FACTOR IN THE SMOKE IN THE TRUCKEE AREA NOT BEING ABLE TO MIX
OUT DUE TO THE LACK OF HEATING. WINDS AT RIDGE LEVEL HOWEVER ARE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SMOKE INTO TAHOE
BASIN AND RENO-CARSON-MINDEN AREAS AS WELL. A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON IN ANTICIPATION THAT SMOKE
WILL BECOME WORSE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SMOKE DENSITY WILL ALSO
DEPEND HIGHLY ON FIRE ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SO THE DENSE
SMOKE ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED EACH AFTERNOON. BUT, WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, SMOKE WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS
ALOFT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN WITH
MID TO UPPER 80S IN WESTERN NEVADA AND 70S IN THE SIERRA. HOON

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A TROUGH OVER THE EAST PACIFIC WILL PROVIDE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
BY MIDWEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PROVIDE COOLER
CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED IS GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE DEGRADING SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING THE EJECTION OF THE
UPPER LOW.

FOR WED-THU, AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST WITH GUSTY WINDS MAINLY CONCENTRATED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS
THE UPPER LEVEL JET BEGINS TO DROP ACROSS NE CALIFORNIA. STRONGER
WINDS LOOK TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES AND THE CORE OF 105+ KT
JET CROSSES THE SIERRA. SUSTAINED SW-W WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH MODELS PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH POSSIBLE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH HOW QUICKLY THE LOW DEPARTS WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH
QUICKER THAN THE EC WHICH LINGERS THE LOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THE EC WOULD PROVIDE US WITH A COOLER AND WETTER
FORECAST THAN THE WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION OF THE GFS. LITTLE
CHANGE MADE IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE
RUNS OFFER LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO MAKE MANY ADJUSTMENTS. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A SLOWER WARMUP IN THE FORECAST
BEYOND FRIDAY. FUENTES

AVIATION...

THE KING WILDFIRE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SMOKE AND HAZE ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH SURFACE VIS AS LOW
AS 1SM POSSIBLE AT KTVL/KTRK AND LESS THAN 3SM POSSIBLE AT
KCXP/KRNO. OTHERWISE, BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN -SHRA ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING BUT CHANCES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
BELOW 15% ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN STORY INTO MIDWEEK WILL BE ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SMOKE TRANSPORT
INTO KTVL/KTRK/KCXP/KRNO. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND DECREASED SURFACE
VIS WILL BE AN ISSUE AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY ASSUMING THE KING FIRE REMAINS ACTIVE. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY NVZ002-003.

CA...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 212206
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
306 PM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ALONG
WITH SMOKE TO THE REGION FROM THE ONGOING KING FIRE. STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASING WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LIGHT RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH THE SIERRA AND UP THROUGH FAR NORTHWEST
NEVADA AS THE LOW PRESSURE PIVOTED THROUGH THE AREA. THE AREA THAT
RECEIVED THE HIGHEST RAINFALL WAS IN EASTERN PERSHING AND CHURCHILL
COUNTIES LAST NIGHT WHERE UP TO 0.50" FELL. OTHERWISE, ONLY LIGHT
RAIN WAS REPORTED FOR OTHER AREAS.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN WESTERN
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. ONE SHOWER THAT MOVED INTO FERNLEY EARLIER
PRODUCED BRIEF, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA. THIS GOES TO SHOW
THAT THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR IS VERY HIGH, WITH EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS, THEN TAPER OFF AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION.

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED OVER THE REGION ALL DAY, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER AND KEEPING THE AIR FROM MIXING. THIS WAS
A BIG FACTOR IN THE SMOKE IN THE TRUCKEE AREA NOT BEING ABLE TO MIX
OUT DUE TO THE LACK OF HEATING. WINDS AT RIDGE LEVEL HOWEVER ARE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SMOKE INTO TAHOE
BASIN AND RENO-CARSON-MINDEN AREAS AS WELL. A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON IN ANTICIPATION THAT SMOKE
WILL BECOME WORSE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SMOKE DENSITY WILL ALSO
DEPEND HIGHLY ON FIRE ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SO THE DENSE
SMOKE ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED EACH AFTERNOON. BUT, WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, SMOKE WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS
ALOFT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN WITH
MID TO UPPER 80S IN WESTERN NEVADA AND 70S IN THE SIERRA. HOON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A TROUGH OVER THE EAST PACIFIC WILL PROVIDE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
BY MIDWEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PROVIDE COOLER
CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED IS GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE DEGRADING SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING THE EJECTION OF THE
UPPER LOW.

FOR WED-THU, AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST WITH GUSTY WINDS MAINLY CONCENTRATED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS
THE UPPER LEVEL JET BEGINS TO DROP ACROSS NE CALIFORNIA. STRONGER
WINDS LOOK TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES AND THE CORE OF 105+ KT
JET CROSSES THE SIERRA. SUSTAINED SW-W WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH MODELS PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH POSSIBLE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH HOW QUICKLY THE LOW DEPARTS WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH
QUICKER THAN THE EC WHICH LINGERS THE LOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THE EC WOULD PROVIDE US WITH A COOLER AND WETTER
FORECAST THAN THE WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION OF THE GFS. LITTLE
CHANGE MADE IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE
RUNS OFFER LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO MAKE MANY ADJUSTMENTS. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A SLOWER WARMUP IN THE FORECAST
BEYOND FRIDAY. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...

THE KING WILDFIRE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SMOKE AND HAZE ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH SURFACE VIS AS LOW
AS 1SM POSSIBLE AT KTVL/KTRK AND LESS THAN 3SM POSSIBLE AT
KCXP/KRNO. OTHERWISE, BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN -SHRA ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING BUT CHANCES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
BELOW 15% ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN STORY INTO MIDWEEK WILL BE ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SMOKE TRANSPORT
INTO KTVL/KTRK/KCXP/KRNO. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND DECREASED SURFACE
VIS WILL BE AN ISSUE AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY ASSUMING THE KING FIRE REMAINS ACTIVE. FUENTES

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NV...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY NVZ002-003.

CA...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 212206
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
306 PM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ALONG
WITH SMOKE TO THE REGION FROM THE ONGOING KING FIRE. STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASING WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

LIGHT RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH THE SIERRA AND UP THROUGH FAR NORTHWEST
NEVADA AS THE LOW PRESSURE PIVOTED THROUGH THE AREA. THE AREA THAT
RECEIVED THE HIGHEST RAINFALL WAS IN EASTERN PERSHING AND CHURCHILL
COUNTIES LAST NIGHT WHERE UP TO 0.50" FELL. OTHERWISE, ONLY LIGHT
RAIN WAS REPORTED FOR OTHER AREAS.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN WESTERN
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. ONE SHOWER THAT MOVED INTO FERNLEY EARLIER
PRODUCED BRIEF, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA. THIS GOES TO SHOW
THAT THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR IS VERY HIGH, WITH EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS, THEN TAPER OFF AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION.

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HAS REMAINED OVER THE REGION ALL DAY, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER AND KEEPING THE AIR FROM MIXING. THIS WAS
A BIG FACTOR IN THE SMOKE IN THE TRUCKEE AREA NOT BEING ABLE TO MIX
OUT DUE TO THE LACK OF HEATING. WINDS AT RIDGE LEVEL HOWEVER ARE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SMOKE INTO TAHOE
BASIN AND RENO-CARSON-MINDEN AREAS AS WELL. A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON IN ANTICIPATION THAT SMOKE
WILL BECOME WORSE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SMOKE DENSITY WILL ALSO
DEPEND HIGHLY ON FIRE ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SO THE DENSE
SMOKE ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED EACH AFTERNOON. BUT, WITH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, SMOKE WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS
ALOFT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN WITH
MID TO UPPER 80S IN WESTERN NEVADA AND 70S IN THE SIERRA. HOON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A TROUGH OVER THE EAST PACIFIC WILL PROVIDE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
BY MIDWEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PROVIDE COOLER
CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED IS GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE DEGRADING SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY DUE TO LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING THE EJECTION OF THE
UPPER LOW.

FOR WED-THU, AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST WITH GUSTY WINDS MAINLY CONCENTRATED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS
THE UPPER LEVEL JET BEGINS TO DROP ACROSS NE CALIFORNIA. STRONGER
WINDS LOOK TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES AND THE CORE OF 105+ KT
JET CROSSES THE SIERRA. SUSTAINED SW-W WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH MODELS PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.

COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH POSSIBLE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH HOW QUICKLY THE LOW DEPARTS WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH
QUICKER THAN THE EC WHICH LINGERS THE LOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THE EC WOULD PROVIDE US WITH A COOLER AND WETTER
FORECAST THAN THE WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION OF THE GFS. LITTLE
CHANGE MADE IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE
RUNS OFFER LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO MAKE MANY ADJUSTMENTS. WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A SLOWER WARMUP IN THE FORECAST
BEYOND FRIDAY. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...

THE KING WILDFIRE ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SMOKE AND HAZE ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH SURFACE VIS AS LOW
AS 1SM POSSIBLE AT KTVL/KTRK AND LESS THAN 3SM POSSIBLE AT
KCXP/KRNO. OTHERWISE, BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN -SHRA ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING BUT CHANCES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
BELOW 15% ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN STORY INTO MIDWEEK WILL BE ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SMOKE TRANSPORT
INTO KTVL/KTRK/KCXP/KRNO. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND DECREASED SURFACE
VIS WILL BE AN ISSUE AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY ASSUMING THE KING FIRE REMAINS ACTIVE. FUENTES

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NV...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY NVZ002-003.

CA...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT MONDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 211634 AAB
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
934 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR TODAY TO MATCH UP WITH THE LATEST TRENDS.
BAND OF RAIN REMAINS NORTH OF RENO-TRUCKEE THIS MORNING. GOOD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE OCCURRING THERE, BUT THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL LIKELY KEEP THE RAIN BAND NORTH OF THE RENO-TAHOE AREA
THIS MORNING.

WE STILL EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE RENO-
TAHOE AREA AS COLD AIR ALOFT KEEPS THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE. CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, SO KEPT IN A MENTION
OF SLIGHT CHANCE. BUT, THE MAIN MODE OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
TODAY IS RAIN SHOWERS.

AS FOR AIR QUALITY, DENSE SMOKE SETTLED INTO THE TRUCKEE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH VERY POOR AIR QUALITY THIS MORNING. AIR QUALITY MAY
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MIXED, BUT WEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONLY BRING IN ADDITIONAL SMOKE TO THE TAHOE
BASIN. SMOKE CONDITIONS WILL ONLY DETERIORATE FOR TAHOE AND
WESTERN NEVADA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS,
BRINGING SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE. HOON

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

UPDATE...
WITH THE MAIN PRECIP BAND BREAKING UP OVER LASSEN/WASHOE/PERSHING
COUNTIES, HAVE REDUCED THE POPS FOR THIS MORNING. WITH THE CORE OF
THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN NEVADA NOW, SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN. THE INSTABILITY IS NOT GREAT OUTSIDE OF THE CORE OF
THE LOW SO ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM HERE ON OUT SEEM
APPROPRIATE. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY BEFORE 18Z AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY. LEFT TEMPS ALONE DESPITE THE WARM START AS CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO BE ABUNDANT AND LIMIT HEATING. WALLMANN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THEN
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASING WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

SO FAR THE ONLY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN EASTERN
CHURCHILL COUNTY WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVED UP TO 0.50 INCH,
AND FAR SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY REPORTING AROUND 0.25 INCH. OTHERWISE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE WITH RAIN BANDS UNABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER
EXCEPT IN WEST CENTRAL NV.

THE KEY OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WRAPPING INTO THE RENO AND TAHOE
VICINITY WILL BE DURING THE MID AND MORNING HOURS BETWEEN 6 AND 11
AM. THIS TIME PERIOD HAD OFTEN BEEN TARGETED FOR THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATE A
NARROWER AND WEAKER RAIN BAND COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THE
TRADE-OFF OF LESS RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THAT WOULD MAKE RAINFALL MORE HIT OR MISS OVER THE
REGION.

THE PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO
THE NORTHEAST AND EXITS NORTHEAST NV. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AS RIDGE AXIS
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE RETURNED TO TRUCKEE AND PARTS OF THE
TAHOE BASIN AFTER 3 PM YESTERDAY, WITH SOME SMOKE PERSISTING EARLY
THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE NORTH SHORE OF TAHOE TO
INTERSTATE 80. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL SMOKE IS UNLIKELY TO SPREAD
EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY, IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO FULLY SCOUR OUT THE EXISTING SMOKE ESPECIALLY IF
STEADY RAIN MISSES THESE AREAS. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST
AGAIN MONDAY WITH WEAK ZEPHYR BREEZE RETURNING BY LATE AFTERNOON,
AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS TUESDAY. THIS COULD BRING MORE
SMOKE EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST AND INTO WESTERN NV IF THE KING
FIRE IS STILL BURNING ACTIVELY THROUGH HEAVY TIMBER. MJD

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE EAST PACIFIC TROUGH AND ITS MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH THE MODELS A BIT SLOWER
THIS MORNING. THE EC CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE
PROGRESSION BY 24-36 HOURS THIS MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A
BLEND, BUT I AM STARTING TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE EC. THEIR ENSEMBLES
SUPPORT THEIR RESPECTIVE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS, BUT PREFER THE EC
ENSEMBLE IDEAS DUE TO THE GREATER NUMBER OF MEMBERS. IT ALSO SHOWS
THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS MORE WITH THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND
NOT AS MUCH ON SPEED THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK A BIT BREEZY BUT NOT AS MUCH SO WITH THE
SLOWER TIMING. IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
GFS/EC ARE ONLY ABOUT 12 HOURS DIFFERENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AND CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS IN THE SIERRA NORTH OF TAHOE
INTO NORTHERN WASHOE THU/THU NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER EAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT, IT LOOKS MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY FRIDAY ON BOTH
MODELS WITH THE SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND PER THE EC. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 9000 FEET OR SO BEHIND THE FRONT SO SOME
PEAKS MAY SEE A LIGHT CAPPING OF WHITE BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, KEPT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EC AND ITS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH 70 IN WRN NV AND AROUND 60 IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS. WALLMANN

AVIATION...

SOME SMOKE/HAZE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING NEAR THE SIERRA CREST
AROUND TAHOE THEN CLEAR SOME AROUND NOON ONLY TO RETURN AROUND 00Z
WITH A LIGHT WEST WIND COMING OVER THE CREST AT THAT TIME. SFC VIS
COULD REDUCE TO NEAR 2 SM THROUGH 06Z FOR KTRK/KTVL AND ISSUES
WITH SLANTWISE VIS ARE ALSO PROBABLE. SMOKE ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY ASSUMING THE KING
FIRE REMAINS ACTIVE.

OTHERWISE, A BAND OF RAIN OVER PERSHING COUNTY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
VIS WILL PERSIST INTO 18Z. THE BAND LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF KRNO
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH ISOLD MVFR CIGS/VIS IN SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW CLEARING
THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDS OUTSIDE OF SMOKE MONDAY. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 211309 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
609 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH THE MAIN PRECIP BAND BREAKING UP OVER LASSEN/WASHOE/PERSHING
COUNTIES, HAVE REDUCED THE POPS FOR THIS MORNING. WITH THE CORE OF
THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN NEVADA NOW, SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN. THE INSTABILITY IS NOT GREAT OUTSIDE OF THE CORE OF
THE LOW SO ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM HERE ON OUT SEEM
APPROPRIATE. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY BEFORE 18Z AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY. LEFT TEMPS ALONE DESPITE THE WARM START AS CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO BE ABUNDANT AND LIMIT HEATING. WALLMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THEN
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASING WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

SO FAR THE ONLY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN EASTERN
CHURCHILL COUNTY WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVED UP TO 0.50 INCH,
AND FAR SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY REPORTING AROUND 0.25 INCH. OTHERWISE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE WITH RAIN BANDS UNABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER
EXCEPT IN WEST CENTRAL NV.

THE KEY OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WRAPPING INTO THE RENO AND TAHOE
VICINITY WILL BE DURING THE MID AND MORNING HOURS BETWEEN 6 AND 11
AM. THIS TIME PERIOD HAD OFTEN BEEN TARGETED FOR THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATE A
NARROWER AND WEAKER RAIN BAND COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THE
TRADE-OFF OF LESS RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THAT WOULD MAKE RAINFALL MORE HIT OR MISS OVER THE
REGION.

THE PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO
THE NORTHEAST AND EXITS NORTHEAST NV. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AS RIDGE AXIS
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE RETURNED TO TRUCKEE AND PARTS OF THE
TAHOE BASIN AFTER 3 PM YESTERDAY, WITH SOME SMOKE PERSISTING EARLY
THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE NORTH SHORE OF TAHOE TO
INTERSTATE 80. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL SMOKE IS UNLIKELY TO SPREAD
EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY, IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO FULLY SCOUR OUT THE EXISTING SMOKE ESPECIALLY IF
STEADY RAIN MISSES THESE AREAS. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST
AGAIN MONDAY WITH WEAK ZEPHYR BREEZE RETURNING BY LATE AFTERNOON,
AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS TUESDAY. THIS COULD BRING MORE
SMOKE EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST AND INTO WESTERN NV IF THE KING
FIRE IS STILL BURNING ACTIVELY THROUGH HEAVY TIMBER. MJD

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE EAST PACIFIC TROUGH AND ITS MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH THE MODELS A BIT SLOWER
THIS MORNING. THE EC CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE
PROGRESSION BY 24-36 HOURS THIS MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A
BLEND, BUT I AM STARTING TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE EC. THEIR ENSEMBLES
SUPPORT THEIR RESPECTIVE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS, BUT PREFER THE EC
ENSEMBLE IDEAS DUE TO THE GREATER NUMBER OF MEMBERS. IT ALSO SHOWS
THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS MORE WITH THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND
NOT AS MUCH ON SPEED THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK A BIT BREEZY BUT NOT AS MUCH SO WITH THE
SLOWER TIMING. IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
GFS/EC ARE ONLY ABOUT 12 HOURS DIFFERENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AND CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS IN THE SIERRA NORTH OF TAHOE
INTO NORTHERN WASHOE THU/THU NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER EAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT, IT LOOKS MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY FRIDAY ON BOTH
MODELS WITH THE SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND PER THE EC. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 9000 FEET OR SO BEHIND THE FRONT SO SOME
PEAKS MAY SEE A LIGHT CAPPING OF WHITE BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, KEPT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EC AND ITS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH 70 IN WRN NV AND AROUND 60 IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS. WALLMANN

AVIATION...

SOME SMOKE/HAZE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING NEAR THE SIERRA CREST
AROUND TAHOE THEN CLEAR SOME AROUND NOON ONLY TO RETURN AROUND 00Z
WITH A LIGHT WEST WIND COMING OVER THE CREST AT THAT TIME. SFC VIS
COULD REDUCE TO NEAR 2 SM THROUGH 06Z FOR KTRK/KTVL AND ISSUES
WITH SLANTWISE VIS ARE ALSO PROBABLE. SMOKE ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY ASSUMING THE KING
FIRE REMAINS ACTIVE.

OTHERWISE, A BAND OF RAIN OVER PERSHING COUNTY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
VIS WILL PERSIST INTO 18Z. THE BAND LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF KRNO
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH ISOLD MVFR CIGS/VIS IN SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW CLEARING
THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDS OUTSIDE OF SMOKE MONDAY. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 211309 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
609 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH THE MAIN PRECIP BAND BREAKING UP OVER LASSEN/WASHOE/PERSHING
COUNTIES, HAVE REDUCED THE POPS FOR THIS MORNING. WITH THE CORE OF
THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN NEVADA NOW, SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN. THE INSTABILITY IS NOT GREAT OUTSIDE OF THE CORE OF
THE LOW SO ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM HERE ON OUT SEEM
APPROPRIATE. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY BEFORE 18Z AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY. LEFT TEMPS ALONE DESPITE THE WARM START AS CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO BE ABUNDANT AND LIMIT HEATING. WALLMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THEN
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASING WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

SO FAR THE ONLY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN EASTERN
CHURCHILL COUNTY WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVED UP TO 0.50 INCH,
AND FAR SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY REPORTING AROUND 0.25 INCH. OTHERWISE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE WITH RAIN BANDS UNABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER
EXCEPT IN WEST CENTRAL NV.

THE KEY OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WRAPPING INTO THE RENO AND TAHOE
VICINITY WILL BE DURING THE MID AND MORNING HOURS BETWEEN 6 AND 11
AM. THIS TIME PERIOD HAD OFTEN BEEN TARGETED FOR THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATE A
NARROWER AND WEAKER RAIN BAND COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THE
TRADE-OFF OF LESS RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THAT WOULD MAKE RAINFALL MORE HIT OR MISS OVER THE
REGION.

THE PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO
THE NORTHEAST AND EXITS NORTHEAST NV. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AS RIDGE AXIS
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE RETURNED TO TRUCKEE AND PARTS OF THE
TAHOE BASIN AFTER 3 PM YESTERDAY, WITH SOME SMOKE PERSISTING EARLY
THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE NORTH SHORE OF TAHOE TO
INTERSTATE 80. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL SMOKE IS UNLIKELY TO SPREAD
EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY, IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO FULLY SCOUR OUT THE EXISTING SMOKE ESPECIALLY IF
STEADY RAIN MISSES THESE AREAS. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST
AGAIN MONDAY WITH WEAK ZEPHYR BREEZE RETURNING BY LATE AFTERNOON,
AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS TUESDAY. THIS COULD BRING MORE
SMOKE EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST AND INTO WESTERN NV IF THE KING
FIRE IS STILL BURNING ACTIVELY THROUGH HEAVY TIMBER. MJD

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE EAST PACIFIC TROUGH AND ITS MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH THE MODELS A BIT SLOWER
THIS MORNING. THE EC CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE
PROGRESSION BY 24-36 HOURS THIS MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A
BLEND, BUT I AM STARTING TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE EC. THEIR ENSEMBLES
SUPPORT THEIR RESPECTIVE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS, BUT PREFER THE EC
ENSEMBLE IDEAS DUE TO THE GREATER NUMBER OF MEMBERS. IT ALSO SHOWS
THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS MORE WITH THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND
NOT AS MUCH ON SPEED THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK A BIT BREEZY BUT NOT AS MUCH SO WITH THE
SLOWER TIMING. IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
GFS/EC ARE ONLY ABOUT 12 HOURS DIFFERENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AND CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS IN THE SIERRA NORTH OF TAHOE
INTO NORTHERN WASHOE THU/THU NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER EAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT, IT LOOKS MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY FRIDAY ON BOTH
MODELS WITH THE SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND PER THE EC. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 9000 FEET OR SO BEHIND THE FRONT SO SOME
PEAKS MAY SEE A LIGHT CAPPING OF WHITE BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, KEPT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EC AND ITS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH 70 IN WRN NV AND AROUND 60 IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS. WALLMANN

AVIATION...

SOME SMOKE/HAZE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING NEAR THE SIERRA CREST
AROUND TAHOE THEN CLEAR SOME AROUND NOON ONLY TO RETURN AROUND 00Z
WITH A LIGHT WEST WIND COMING OVER THE CREST AT THAT TIME. SFC VIS
COULD REDUCE TO NEAR 2 SM THROUGH 06Z FOR KTRK/KTVL AND ISSUES
WITH SLANTWISE VIS ARE ALSO PROBABLE. SMOKE ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY ASSUMING THE KING
FIRE REMAINS ACTIVE.

OTHERWISE, A BAND OF RAIN OVER PERSHING COUNTY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
VIS WILL PERSIST INTO 18Z. THE BAND LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF KRNO
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH ISOLD MVFR CIGS/VIS IN SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW CLEARING
THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDS OUTSIDE OF SMOKE MONDAY. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 211003
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
303 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THEN
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASING WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SO FAR THE ONLY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN EASTERN
CHURCHILL COUNTY WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVED UP TO 0.50 INCH,
AND FAR SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY REPORTING AROUND 0.25 INCH. OTHERWISE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE WITH RAIN BANDS UNABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER
EXCEPT IN WEST CENTRAL NV.

THE KEY OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WRAPPING INTO THE RENO AND TAHOE
VICINITY WILL BE DURING THE MID AND MORNING HOURS BETWEEN 6 AND 11
AM. THIS TIME PERIOD HAD OFTEN BEEN TARGETED FOR THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATE A
NARROWER AND WEAKER RAIN BAND COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THE
TRADE-OFF OF LESS RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THAT WOULD MAKE RAINFALL MORE HIT OR MISS OVER THE
REGION.

THE PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO
THE NORTHEAST AND EXITS NORTHEAST NV. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AS RIDGE AXIS
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE RETURNED TO TRUCKEE AND PARTS OF THE
TAHOE BASIN AFTER 3 PM YESTERDAY, WITH SOME SMOKE PERSISTING EARLY
THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE NORTH SHORE OF TAHOE TO
INTERSTATE 80. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL SMOKE IS UNLIKELY TO SPREAD
EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY, IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO FULLY SCOUR OUT THE EXISTING SMOKE ESPECIALLY IF
STEADY RAIN MISSES THESE AREAS. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST
AGAIN MONDAY WITH WEAK ZEPHYR BREEZE RETURNING BY LATE AFTERNOON,
AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS TUESDAY. THIS COULD BRING MORE
SMOKE EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST AND INTO WESTERN NV IF THE KING
FIRE IS STILL BURNING ACTIVELY THROUGH HEAVY TIMBER. MJD

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE EAST PACIFIC TROUGH AND ITS MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH THE MODELS A BIT SLOWER
THIS MORNING. THE EC CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE
PROGRESSION BY 24-36 HOURS THIS MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A
BLEND, BUT I AM STARTING TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE EC. THEIR ENSEMBLES
SUPPORT THEIR RESPECTIVE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS, BUT PREFER THE EC
ENSEMBLE IDEAS DUE TO THE GREATER NUMBER OF MEMBERS. IT ALSO SHOWS
THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS MORE WITH THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND
NOT AS MUCH ON SPEED THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK A BIT BREEZY BUT NOT AS MUCH SO WITH THE
SLOWER TIMING. IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
GFS/EC ARE ONLY ABOUT 12 HOURS DIFFERENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AND CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS IN THE SIERRA NORTH OF TAHOE
INTO NORTHERN WASHOE THU/THU NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER EAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT, IT LOOKS MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY FRIDAY ON BOTH
MODELS WITH THE SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND PER THE EC. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 9000 FEET OR SO BEHIND THE FRONT SO SOME
PEAKS MAY SEE A LIGHT CAPPING OF WHITE BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, KEPT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EC AND ITS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH 70 IN WRN NV AND AROUND 60 IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS. WALLMANN
&&

.AVIATION...

SOME SMOKE/HAZE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING NEAR THE SIERRA CREST
AROUND TAHOE THEN CLEAR SOME AROUND NOON ONLY TO RETURN AROUND 00Z
WITH A LIGHT WEST WIND COMING OVER THE CREST AT THAT TIME. SFC VIS
COULD REDUCE TO NEAR 2 SM THROUGH 06Z FOR KTRK/KTVL AND ISSUES
WITH SLANTWISE VIS ARE ALSO PROBABLE. SMOKE ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY ASSUMING THE KING
FIRE REMAINS ACTIVE.

OTHERWISE, A BAND OF RAIN OVER PERSHING COUNTY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
VIS WILL PERSIST INTO 18Z. THE BAND LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF KRNO
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH ISOLD MVFR CIGS/VIS IN SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW CLEARING
THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDS OUTSIDE OF SMOKE MONDAY. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 211003
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
303 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEVADA WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THEN
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE BRINGS INCREASING WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SO FAR THE ONLY MEANINGFUL RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN EASTERN
CHURCHILL COUNTY WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVED UP TO 0.50 INCH,
AND FAR SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY REPORTING AROUND 0.25 INCH. OTHERWISE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN SPARSE WITH RAIN BANDS UNABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER
EXCEPT IN WEST CENTRAL NV.

THE KEY OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WRAPPING INTO THE RENO AND TAHOE
VICINITY WILL BE DURING THE MID AND MORNING HOURS BETWEEN 6 AND 11
AM. THIS TIME PERIOD HAD OFTEN BEEN TARGETED FOR THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATE A
NARROWER AND WEAKER RAIN BAND COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THE
TRADE-OFF OF LESS RAIN AND CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE MORNING COULD BE
INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THAT WOULD MAKE RAINFALL MORE HIT OR MISS OVER THE
REGION.

THE PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO
THE NORTHEAST AND EXITS NORTHEAST NV. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AS RIDGE AXIS
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE RETURNED TO TRUCKEE AND PARTS OF THE
TAHOE BASIN AFTER 3 PM YESTERDAY, WITH SOME SMOKE PERSISTING EARLY
THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE NORTH SHORE OF TAHOE TO
INTERSTATE 80. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL SMOKE IS UNLIKELY TO SPREAD
EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY, IT MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO FULLY SCOUR OUT THE EXISTING SMOKE ESPECIALLY IF
STEADY RAIN MISSES THESE AREAS. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWEST
AGAIN MONDAY WITH WEAK ZEPHYR BREEZE RETURNING BY LATE AFTERNOON,
AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS TUESDAY. THIS COULD BRING MORE
SMOKE EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST AND INTO WESTERN NV IF THE KING
FIRE IS STILL BURNING ACTIVELY THROUGH HEAVY TIMBER. MJD

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE EAST PACIFIC TROUGH AND ITS MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH THE MODELS A BIT SLOWER
THIS MORNING. THE EC CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THE
PROGRESSION BY 24-36 HOURS THIS MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A
BLEND, BUT I AM STARTING TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE EC. THEIR ENSEMBLES
SUPPORT THEIR RESPECTIVE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS, BUT PREFER THE EC
ENSEMBLE IDEAS DUE TO THE GREATER NUMBER OF MEMBERS. IT ALSO SHOWS
THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS MORE WITH THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND
NOT AS MUCH ON SPEED THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK A BIT BREEZY BUT NOT AS MUCH SO WITH THE
SLOWER TIMING. IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR MORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
GFS/EC ARE ONLY ABOUT 12 HOURS DIFFERENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AND CONTINUED THE CHANCE POPS IN THE SIERRA NORTH OF TAHOE
INTO NORTHERN WASHOE THU/THU NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER EAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT, IT LOOKS MUCH COOLER AND SHOWERY FRIDAY ON BOTH
MODELS WITH THE SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND PER THE EC. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 9000 FEET OR SO BEHIND THE FRONT SO SOME
PEAKS MAY SEE A LIGHT CAPPING OF WHITE BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, KEPT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EC AND ITS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH 70 IN WRN NV AND AROUND 60 IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS. WALLMANN
&&

.AVIATION...

SOME SMOKE/HAZE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING NEAR THE SIERRA CREST
AROUND TAHOE THEN CLEAR SOME AROUND NOON ONLY TO RETURN AROUND 00Z
WITH A LIGHT WEST WIND COMING OVER THE CREST AT THAT TIME. SFC VIS
COULD REDUCE TO NEAR 2 SM THROUGH 06Z FOR KTRK/KTVL AND ISSUES
WITH SLANTWISE VIS ARE ALSO PROBABLE. SMOKE ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY ASSUMING THE KING
FIRE REMAINS ACTIVE.

OTHERWISE, A BAND OF RAIN OVER PERSHING COUNTY WITH POCKETS OF MVFR
VIS WILL PERSIST INTO 18Z. THE BAND LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF KRNO
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH ISOLD MVFR CIGS/VIS IN SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW CLEARING
THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDS OUTSIDE OF SMOKE MONDAY. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 210239
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
739 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION THIS EVENING IS MAINLY CLUSTERED IN TWO AREAS. THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE CREST AND TO THE WEST IS MORE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW...ITS COOLER AIR ALOFT AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE...A LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF NEVADA HAS BEEN MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED
WITH A JET STREAK IN THAT REGION. LATEST NUMERICAL MODELS TAKE
THIS JET STREAK A BIT MORE WNW AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER FORCING ALOFT OVER WRN
NEVADA. ALSO...THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW AND ITS COOLING ALOFT
SHOULD BOOST THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE FAR WESTERN AND
SRN CWA. SO...HAVE OPTED TO LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE EVENING
OVER WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WHERE FORCING IS
MINIMAL...BUT LEFT THE HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES
AND THE INTERACTION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK AND DEFORMATION AXIS
PRODUCES A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER.

SMOKE FORM THE KING FIRE POURED INTO THE TAHOE BASIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS ALOFT DECREASED FROM THE
EAST AND HAVE STARTING TO BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE BASIN. THESE
WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY TURN TO THE WEST OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF
WRN NV AS WELL...BUT IT IS HARD TO SAY AT THIS POINT WHETHER THE
SMOKE WILL MAKE IT INTO AREAS SOUTH OF CARSON CITY AS STRONG AS
IT WAS IN TAHOE EARLIER. BY SUNDAY MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF
THE SMOKE MAKING ITS WAY INTO WRN NEVADA FROM CARSON CITY NORTHWARD.
20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS
WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS BY MID WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HAS BEGUN TO LIFT
INTO NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES AND WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY
IN WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA WHERE THERE IS HIGHER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
AND MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS.

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ARE PUSHING SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE UP THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE EAST
WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH REMAIN OVER THE SIERRA CREST. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SMOKE WILL MAKE IT OVER THE CREST AND PUSH
INTO THE BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
EAST FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT, AS THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION,
WE WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER TO AROUND ONE INCH IN
WESTERN NEVADA. THIS DEEP MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER, NEARING THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR PRECIPITABLE WATER IN
WESTERN NEVADA...CLOSER TO SOMETHING WE`D SEE IN JULY OR AUGUST.

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A DEFORMATION ZONE RAIN BAND WILL
ALSO SET UP FROM RENO-TAHOE TO WINNEMUCCA OVERNIGHT WITH STEADY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY EXCEED 0.50" IN EASTERN
PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES, WITH 0.10 TO 0.25" IN THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND ALONG THE WESTERN NEVADA SIERRA FRONT ESPECIALLY AROUND
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP OVER THE REGION,
WHICH COULD SHIFT UP TO 50 MILES BASED OFF OF PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOWS FOR SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.

WINDS FOR THE TAHOE BASIN ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY LATE
SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD HELP TO BRING SMOKE INTO THE RENO-TAHOE AREA
AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY AS WELL. HOON

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL FOCUS ON THE
PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH BUT
FAR GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH ITS INLAND PROGRESSION AND
RESULTANT TIMING OF IMPACTS. NONETHELESS WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THOROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE
TO BE TRANSPORTED BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
DEPENDENT UPON THE FIRE`S SMOKE PRODUCTION AT THAT TIME.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A TAD SLOWER WITH THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH AND WITH A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA HAVE REDUCED SKY COVER
AND POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
LATE TUESDAY WITH BREEZIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE OREGON BORDER AS AN UPPER LEVEL
JET MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SIERRA.

BEYOND THURSDAY CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST AS THE
GFS BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW WHILE THE EC LINGERS A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL HAVE TIMING
IMPACTS ON THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ANYWHERE FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE WILL
SEE LIKELY OUR STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGEST WINDS AS A
RESULT. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
GRADIENT BUT THIS THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED IN THE COMING DAYS
WITH MORE REFINEMENTS ON TIMING. NONETHELESS, THE LOW WILL HELP COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT CREATING INSTABILITY AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
BEGINNING THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE POSSIBLE
BY FRIDAY. FUENTES

AVIATION...
AREAS OF HAZE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH EAST FLOW KEEPING THE
BULK OF THE SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE ACROSS THE WESTERN SIERRA SLOPES
WITH SOME MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST.

INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR BANDED
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM THE TAHOE BASIN TO BETWEEN I-80 AND
HWY 50 ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT MAIN TERMINALS ABOUT 20 PCT FOR KRNO/KCXP/KTVL/KTRK AND
25-30 PCT AT KMMH. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 210239
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
739 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION THIS EVENING IS MAINLY CLUSTERED IN TWO AREAS. THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE CREST AND TO THE WEST IS MORE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW...ITS COOLER AIR ALOFT AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE...A LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF NEVADA HAS BEEN MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED
WITH A JET STREAK IN THAT REGION. LATEST NUMERICAL MODELS TAKE
THIS JET STREAK A BIT MORE WNW AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER FORCING ALOFT OVER WRN
NEVADA. ALSO...THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW AND ITS COOLING ALOFT
SHOULD BOOST THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE FAR WESTERN AND
SRN CWA. SO...HAVE OPTED TO LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE EVENING
OVER WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WHERE FORCING IS
MINIMAL...BUT LEFT THE HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES
AND THE INTERACTION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK AND DEFORMATION AXIS
PRODUCES A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER.

SMOKE FORM THE KING FIRE POURED INTO THE TAHOE BASIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS ALOFT DECREASED FROM THE
EAST AND HAVE STARTING TO BECOME WESTERLY OVER THE BASIN. THESE
WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY TURN TO THE WEST OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF
WRN NV AS WELL...BUT IT IS HARD TO SAY AT THIS POINT WHETHER THE
SMOKE WILL MAKE IT INTO AREAS SOUTH OF CARSON CITY AS STRONG AS
IT WAS IN TAHOE EARLIER. BY SUNDAY MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF
THE SMOKE MAKING ITS WAY INTO WRN NEVADA FROM CARSON CITY NORTHWARD.
20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS
WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS BY MID WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HAS BEGUN TO LIFT
INTO NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES AND WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY
IN WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA WHERE THERE IS HIGHER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
AND MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS.

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ARE PUSHING SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE UP THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE EAST
WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH REMAIN OVER THE SIERRA CREST. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SMOKE WILL MAKE IT OVER THE CREST AND PUSH
INTO THE BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
EAST FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT, AS THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION,
WE WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER TO AROUND ONE INCH IN
WESTERN NEVADA. THIS DEEP MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER, NEARING THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR PRECIPITABLE WATER IN
WESTERN NEVADA...CLOSER TO SOMETHING WE`D SEE IN JULY OR AUGUST.

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A DEFORMATION ZONE RAIN BAND WILL
ALSO SET UP FROM RENO-TAHOE TO WINNEMUCCA OVERNIGHT WITH STEADY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY EXCEED 0.50" IN EASTERN
PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES, WITH 0.10 TO 0.25" IN THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND ALONG THE WESTERN NEVADA SIERRA FRONT ESPECIALLY AROUND
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP OVER THE REGION,
WHICH COULD SHIFT UP TO 50 MILES BASED OFF OF PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOWS FOR SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.

WINDS FOR THE TAHOE BASIN ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY LATE
SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD HELP TO BRING SMOKE INTO THE RENO-TAHOE AREA
AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY AS WELL. HOON

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL FOCUS ON THE
PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH BUT
FAR GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH ITS INLAND PROGRESSION AND
RESULTANT TIMING OF IMPACTS. NONETHELESS WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THOROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE
TO BE TRANSPORTED BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
DEPENDENT UPON THE FIRE`S SMOKE PRODUCTION AT THAT TIME.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A TAD SLOWER WITH THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH AND WITH A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA HAVE REDUCED SKY COVER
AND POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
LATE TUESDAY WITH BREEZIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE OREGON BORDER AS AN UPPER LEVEL
JET MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SIERRA.

BEYOND THURSDAY CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST AS THE
GFS BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW WHILE THE EC LINGERS A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL HAVE TIMING
IMPACTS ON THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ANYWHERE FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE WILL
SEE LIKELY OUR STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGEST WINDS AS A
RESULT. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
GRADIENT BUT THIS THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED IN THE COMING DAYS
WITH MORE REFINEMENTS ON TIMING. NONETHELESS, THE LOW WILL HELP COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT CREATING INSTABILITY AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
BEGINNING THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE POSSIBLE
BY FRIDAY. FUENTES

AVIATION...
AREAS OF HAZE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH EAST FLOW KEEPING THE
BULK OF THE SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE ACROSS THE WESTERN SIERRA SLOPES
WITH SOME MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST.

INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR BANDED
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM THE TAHOE BASIN TO BETWEEN I-80 AND
HWY 50 ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT MAIN TERMINALS ABOUT 20 PCT FOR KRNO/KCXP/KTVL/KTRK AND
25-30 PCT AT KMMH. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 202225
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
325 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS
WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HAS BEGUN TO LIFT
INTO NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES AND WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY
IN WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA WHERE THERE IS HIGHER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
AND MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS.

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ARE PUSHING SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE UP THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE EAST
WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH REMAIN OVER THE SIERRA CREST. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SMOKE WILL MAKE IT OVER THE CREST AND PUSH
INTO THE BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
EAST FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT, AS THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION,
WE WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER TO AROUND ONE INCH IN
WESTERN NEVADA. THIS DEEP MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER, NEARING THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR PRECIPITABLE WATER IN
WESTERN NEVADA...CLOSER TO SOMETHING WE`D SEE IN JULY OR AUGUST.

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A DEFORMATION ZONE RAIN BAND WILL
ALSO SET UP FROM RENO-TAHOE TO WINNEMUCCA OVERNIGHT WITH STEADY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY EXCEED 0.50" IN EASTERN
PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES, WITH 0.10 TO 0.25" IN THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND ALONG THE WESTERN NEVADA SIERRA FRONT ESPECIALLY AROUND
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP OVER THE REGION,
WHICH COULD SHIFT UP TO 50 MILES BASED OFF OF PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOWS FOR SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.

WINDS FOR THE TAHOE BASIN ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY LATE
SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD HELP TO BRING SMOKE INTO THE RENO-TAHOE AREA
AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY AS WELL. HOON


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL FOCUS ON THE
PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH BUT
FAR GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH ITS INLAND PROGRESSION AND
RESULTANT TIMING OF IMPACTS. NONETHELESS WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THOROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE
TO BE TRANSPORTED BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
DEPENDENT UPON THE FIRE`S SMOKE PRODUCTION AT THAT TIME.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A TAD SLOWER WITH THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH AND WITH A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA HAVE REDUCED SKY COVER
AND POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
LATE TUESDAY WITH BREEZIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE OREGON BORDER AS AN UPPER LEVEL
JET MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SIERRA.

BEYOND THURSDAY CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST AS THE
GFS BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW WHILE THE EC LINGERS A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL HAVE TIMING
IMPACTS ON THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ANYWHERE FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE WILL
SEE LIKELY OUR STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGEST WINDS AS A
RESULT. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
GRADIENT BUT THIS THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED IN THE COMING DAYS
WITH MORE REFINEMENTS ON TIMING. NONETHELESS, THE LOW WILL HELP COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT CREATING INSTABILITY AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
BEGINNING THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE POSSIBLE
BY FRIDAY. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF HAZE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH EAST FLOW KEEPING THE
BULK OF THE SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE ACROSS THE WESTERN SIERRA SLOPES
WITH SOME MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST.

INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR BANDED
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM THE TAHOE BASIN TO BETWEEN I-80 AND
HWY 50 ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT MAIN TERMINALS ABOUT 20 PCT FOR KRNO/KCXP/KTVL/KTRK AND
25-30 PCT AT KMMH. FUENTES

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 202225
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
325 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS
WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA HAS BEGUN TO LIFT
INTO NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES AND WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY
IN WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA WHERE THERE IS HIGHER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
AND MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS.

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ARE PUSHING SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE UP THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE EAST
WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH REMAIN OVER THE SIERRA CREST. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SMOKE WILL MAKE IT OVER THE CREST AND PUSH
INTO THE BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
EAST FLOW ALOFT.

TONIGHT, AS THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION,
WE WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER TO AROUND ONE INCH IN
WESTERN NEVADA. THIS DEEP MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY ANOMALOUS FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER, NEARING THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR PRECIPITABLE WATER IN
WESTERN NEVADA...CLOSER TO SOMETHING WE`D SEE IN JULY OR AUGUST.

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A DEFORMATION ZONE RAIN BAND WILL
ALSO SET UP FROM RENO-TAHOE TO WINNEMUCCA OVERNIGHT WITH STEADY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY EXCEED 0.50" IN EASTERN
PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES, WITH 0.10 TO 0.25" IN THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND ALONG THE WESTERN NEVADA SIERRA FRONT ESPECIALLY AROUND
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE DEFORMATION BAND SETS UP OVER THE REGION,
WHICH COULD SHIFT UP TO 50 MILES BASED OFF OF PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND ALLOWS FOR SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.

WINDS FOR THE TAHOE BASIN ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY LATE
SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD HELP TO BRING SMOKE INTO THE RENO-TAHOE AREA
AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY AS WELL. HOON


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL FOCUS ON THE
PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROUGH BUT
FAR GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH ITS INLAND PROGRESSION AND
RESULTANT TIMING OF IMPACTS. NONETHELESS WE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THOROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE
TO BE TRANSPORTED BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
DEPENDENT UPON THE FIRE`S SMOKE PRODUCTION AT THAT TIME.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A TAD SLOWER WITH THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH AND WITH A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA HAVE REDUCED SKY COVER
AND POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
LATE TUESDAY WITH BREEZIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE OREGON BORDER AS AN UPPER LEVEL
JET MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE SIERRA.

BEYOND THURSDAY CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST AS THE
GFS BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW WHILE THE EC LINGERS A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL HAVE TIMING
IMPACTS ON THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ANYWHERE FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WE WILL
SEE LIKELY OUR STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGEST WINDS AS A
RESULT. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
GRADIENT BUT THIS THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED IN THE COMING DAYS
WITH MORE REFINEMENTS ON TIMING. NONETHELESS, THE LOW WILL HELP COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT CREATING INSTABILITY AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
BEGINNING THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE POSSIBLE
BY FRIDAY. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF HAZE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH EAST FLOW KEEPING THE
BULK OF THE SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE ACROSS THE WESTERN SIERRA SLOPES
WITH SOME MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATION POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST.

INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR BANDED
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM THE TAHOE BASIN TO BETWEEN I-80 AND
HWY 50 ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS/VIS AT MAIN TERMINALS ABOUT 20 PCT FOR KRNO/KCXP/KTVL/KTRK AND
25-30 PCT AT KMMH. FUENTES

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 201503 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
803 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WE PULLED
IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A BIT FURTHER NORTH
INTO RENO AND UP TO PYRAMID LAKE, AS WELL AS INCREASING COVERAGE
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY
95 IN PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, SOLID RAIN
AMOUNTS LOOKING GOOD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH GREAT BASIN. HOON

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS
WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS, FOLLOWED BY A
COOLING TREND WITH POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WILL EJECT INLAND ACROSS THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LATER TODAY, THEN CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NV ON SUNDAY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS SCENARIO, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN
WEST CENTRAL NV FROM HIGHWAY 95 EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS LOW WILL BE NOTICED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST US. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE NEAR THOSE VALUES THRU MOST OF SUNDAY. FORCING
WILL ALSO BECOME STRONGER WITH DEFORMATION ZONE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW TRACK, WHILE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL PROVIDE INSTABILITY FOR
GENERATING AND SUSTAINING SOME CONVECTION EVEN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR BEST RAIN
CHANCE IS FOR PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES WITH POSSIBLE
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1 INCH, SO WE HAVE INCREASED
POPS THE MOST IN THOSE AREAS.

OTHER PARTS OF WESTERN NV AND EASTERN CA, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND INTO THE RENO-TAHOE VICINITY COULD RECEIVE SOME
DECENT RAINFALL IN THE 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE MOISTURE BAND AS IT
WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NEVADA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING AREAS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT
TEMPERATURE RISES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF WESTERN NV, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS COULD
END UP WITH A PERSISTENT BAND OF RAIN AND END UP 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, PRECIP WILL DECREASE QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING
AS THE LOW ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXITS NORTHEAST NV BY
MIDNIGHT. FOR MONDAY, SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION,
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S FOR MOST WESTERN NV VALLEYS.

WHILE THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO BURN THRU THIS WEEKEND, THE
PRIMARILY EAST LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP SMOKE WEST OF THE
SIERRA TODAY AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS MONDAY AND
DEPENDING ON HOW ACTIVE THE FIRE IS BURNING, SMOKE AND HAZE MAY
RETURN TO AREAS AFFECTED EARLIER IN THE WEEK, INCLUDING THE RENO
AND TRUCKEE VICINITY. MJD

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH ONSHORE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS, ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT THE
EC ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND STANDARD DEVIATION. HOWEVER, THE MEANS FROM
BOTH THE GFS/EC SUPPORT THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE TROUGH SPLITTING AS
IT MOVES ONSHORE WITH A POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH AS THE
GFS/EC DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOW. SINCE THE FORECAST IN GENERAL
CONVEYS THIS IDEA, ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE SHORT WAVE
RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST AND A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS.
ONE CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE ANY SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AS THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL JUST BE MOVING ONSHORE AT THIS TIME PER
ENSEMBLE IDEAS.

WINDS WILL STAY UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH
THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ANY TIME FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND BECOME MORE WEST AND SLACKEN BEHIND IT. AS FAR AS
PRECIP, THE FRONT WILL BE SHEARING AS IT MOVES THROUGH SO ONLY
EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW MAY MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY, BUT THE COLD AIR LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE BEST CHANCE NORTH OF I-80. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
MUCH COOLER, DROPPING AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
FRIDAY. WALLMANN

AVIATION...

EXPECT HAZE TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE MAIN THREAT THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS CA-NV. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AFTER 22Z TODAY. THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL
BE EAST OF 395 AND SOUTH OF I-80 TONIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT NORTH
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS/VIS AT MAIN
TERMINALS ABOUT 20 PCT FOR KRNO/KCXP AND 10-15 PCT AT
KMMH/KTVL/KTRK WITH THE EAST FLOW. SOME MTN OBSCN LIKELY 00-18Z
SUNDAY IN THE BANDS OF SHOWERS. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 201503 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
803 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WE PULLED
IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A BIT FURTHER NORTH
INTO RENO AND UP TO PYRAMID LAKE, AS WELL AS INCREASING COVERAGE
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY
95 IN PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, SOLID RAIN
AMOUNTS LOOKING GOOD FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH GREAT BASIN. HOON

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS
WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS, FOLLOWED BY A
COOLING TREND WITH POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WILL EJECT INLAND ACROSS THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LATER TODAY, THEN CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NV ON SUNDAY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS SCENARIO, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN
WEST CENTRAL NV FROM HIGHWAY 95 EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS LOW WILL BE NOTICED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST US. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE NEAR THOSE VALUES THRU MOST OF SUNDAY. FORCING
WILL ALSO BECOME STRONGER WITH DEFORMATION ZONE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW TRACK, WHILE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL PROVIDE INSTABILITY FOR
GENERATING AND SUSTAINING SOME CONVECTION EVEN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR BEST RAIN
CHANCE IS FOR PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES WITH POSSIBLE
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1 INCH, SO WE HAVE INCREASED
POPS THE MOST IN THOSE AREAS.

OTHER PARTS OF WESTERN NV AND EASTERN CA, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND INTO THE RENO-TAHOE VICINITY COULD RECEIVE SOME
DECENT RAINFALL IN THE 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE MOISTURE BAND AS IT
WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NEVADA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING AREAS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT
TEMPERATURE RISES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF WESTERN NV, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS COULD
END UP WITH A PERSISTENT BAND OF RAIN AND END UP 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, PRECIP WILL DECREASE QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING
AS THE LOW ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXITS NORTHEAST NV BY
MIDNIGHT. FOR MONDAY, SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION,
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S FOR MOST WESTERN NV VALLEYS.

WHILE THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO BURN THRU THIS WEEKEND, THE
PRIMARILY EAST LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP SMOKE WEST OF THE
SIERRA TODAY AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS MONDAY AND
DEPENDING ON HOW ACTIVE THE FIRE IS BURNING, SMOKE AND HAZE MAY
RETURN TO AREAS AFFECTED EARLIER IN THE WEEK, INCLUDING THE RENO
AND TRUCKEE VICINITY. MJD

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH ONSHORE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS, ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT THE
EC ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND STANDARD DEVIATION. HOWEVER, THE MEANS FROM
BOTH THE GFS/EC SUPPORT THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE TROUGH SPLITTING AS
IT MOVES ONSHORE WITH A POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH AS THE
GFS/EC DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOW. SINCE THE FORECAST IN GENERAL
CONVEYS THIS IDEA, ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE SHORT WAVE
RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST AND A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS.
ONE CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE ANY SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AS THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL JUST BE MOVING ONSHORE AT THIS TIME PER
ENSEMBLE IDEAS.

WINDS WILL STAY UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH
THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ANY TIME FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND BECOME MORE WEST AND SLACKEN BEHIND IT. AS FAR AS
PRECIP, THE FRONT WILL BE SHEARING AS IT MOVES THROUGH SO ONLY
EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW MAY MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY, BUT THE COLD AIR LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE BEST CHANCE NORTH OF I-80. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
MUCH COOLER, DROPPING AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
FRIDAY. WALLMANN

AVIATION...

EXPECT HAZE TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE MAIN THREAT THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS CA-NV. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AFTER 22Z TODAY. THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL
BE EAST OF 395 AND SOUTH OF I-80 TONIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT NORTH
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS/VIS AT MAIN
TERMINALS ABOUT 20 PCT FOR KRNO/KCXP AND 10-15 PCT AT
KMMH/KTVL/KTRK WITH THE EAST FLOW. SOME MTN OBSCN LIKELY 00-18Z
SUNDAY IN THE BANDS OF SHOWERS. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 200953
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
253 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS
WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS, FOLLOWED BY A
COOLING TREND WITH POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WILL EJECT INLAND ACROSS THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LATER TODAY, THEN CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NV ON SUNDAY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS SCENARIO, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN
WEST CENTRAL NV FROM HIGHWAY 95 EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS LOW WILL BE NOTICED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST US. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE NEAR THOSE VALUES THRU MOST OF SUNDAY. FORCING
WILL ALSO BECOME STRONGER WITH DEFORMATION ZONE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW TRACK, WHILE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL PROVIDE INSTABILITY FOR
GENERATING AND SUSTAINING SOME CONVECTION EVEN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR BEST RAIN
CHANCE IS FOR PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES WITH POSSIBLE
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1 INCH, SO WE HAVE INCREASED
POPS THE MOST IN THOSE AREAS.

OTHER PARTS OF WESTERN NV AND EASTERN CA, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND INTO THE RENO-TAHOE VICINITY COULD RECEIVE SOME
DECENT RAINFALL IN THE 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE MOISTURE BAND AS IT
WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NEVADA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING AREAS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT
TEMPERATURE RISES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF WESTERN NV, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS COULD
END UP WITH A PERSISTENT BAND OF RAIN AND END UP 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, PRECIP WILL DECREASE QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING
AS THE LOW ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXITS NORTHEAST NV BY
MIDNIGHT. FOR MONDAY, SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION,
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S FOR MOST WESTERN NV VALLEYS.

WHILE THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO BURN THRU THIS WEEKEND, THE
PRIMARILY EAST LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP SMOKE WEST OF THE
SIERRA TODAY AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS MONDAY AND
DEPENDING ON HOW ACTIVE THE FIRE IS BURNING, SMOKE AND HAZE MAY
RETURN TO AREAS AFFECTED EARLIER IN THE WEEK, INCLUDING THE RENO
AND TRUCKEE VICINITY. MJD

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH ONSHORE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS, ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT THE
EC ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND STANDARD DEVIATION. HOWEVER, THE MEANS FROM
BOTH THE GFS/EC SUPPORT THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE TROUGH SPLITTING AS
IT MOVES ONSHORE WITH A POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH AS THE
GFS/EC DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOW. SINCE THE FORECAST IN GENERAL
CONVEYS THIS IDEA, ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE SHORT WAVE
RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST AND A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS.
ONE CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE ANY SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AS THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL JUST BE MOVING ONSHORE AT THIS TIME PER
ENSEMBLE IDEAS.

WINDS WILL STAY UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH
THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ANY TIME FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND BECOME MORE WEST AND SLACKEN BEHIND IT. AS FAR AS
PRECIP, THE FRONT WILL BE SHEARING AS IT MOVES THROUGH SO ONLY
EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW MAY MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY, BUT THE COLD AIR LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE BEST CHANCE NORTH OF I-80. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
MUCH COOLER, DROPPING AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
FRIDAY. WALLMANN
&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT HAZE TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE MAIN THREAT THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS CA-NV. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AFTER 22Z TODAY. THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL
BE EAST OF 395 AND SOUTH OF I-80 TONIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT NORTH
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS/VIS AT MAIN
TERMINALS ABOUT 20 PCT FOR KRNO/KCXP AND 10-15 PCT AT
KMMH/KTVL/KTRK WITH THE EAST FLOW. SOME MTN OBSCN LIKELY 00-18Z
SUNDAY IN THE BANDS OF SHOWERS. WALLMANN
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 200953
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
253 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS
WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS, FOLLOWED BY A
COOLING TREND WITH POSSIBLE RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...

UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WILL EJECT INLAND ACROSS THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LATER TODAY, THEN CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NV ON SUNDAY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS SCENARIO, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN
WEST CENTRAL NV FROM HIGHWAY 95 EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS LOW WILL BE NOTICED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST US. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE NEAR THOSE VALUES THRU MOST OF SUNDAY. FORCING
WILL ALSO BECOME STRONGER WITH DEFORMATION ZONE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW TRACK, WHILE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL PROVIDE INSTABILITY FOR
GENERATING AND SUSTAINING SOME CONVECTION EVEN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR BEST RAIN
CHANCE IS FOR PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES WITH POSSIBLE
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1 INCH, SO WE HAVE INCREASED
POPS THE MOST IN THOSE AREAS.

OTHER PARTS OF WESTERN NV AND EASTERN CA, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND INTO THE RENO-TAHOE VICINITY COULD RECEIVE SOME
DECENT RAINFALL IN THE 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AND DURATION OF THE MOISTURE BAND AS IT
WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NEVADA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING AREAS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT
TEMPERATURE RISES ON SUNDAY. HIGHS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF WESTERN NV, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS COULD
END UP WITH A PERSISTENT BAND OF RAIN AND END UP 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, PRECIP WILL DECREASE QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING
AS THE LOW ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXITS NORTHEAST NV BY
MIDNIGHT. FOR MONDAY, SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION,
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S FOR MOST WESTERN NV VALLEYS.

WHILE THE KING FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO BURN THRU THIS WEEKEND, THE
PRIMARILY EAST LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP SMOKE WEST OF THE
SIERRA TODAY AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS MONDAY AND
DEPENDING ON HOW ACTIVE THE FIRE IS BURNING, SMOKE AND HAZE MAY
RETURN TO AREAS AFFECTED EARLIER IN THE WEEK, INCLUDING THE RENO
AND TRUCKEE VICINITY. MJD

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH ONSHORE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS, ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT THE
EC ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND STANDARD DEVIATION. HOWEVER, THE MEANS FROM
BOTH THE GFS/EC SUPPORT THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE TROUGH SPLITTING AS
IT MOVES ONSHORE WITH A POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH AS THE
GFS/EC DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOW. SINCE THE FORECAST IN GENERAL
CONVEYS THIS IDEA, ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE SHORT WAVE
RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST AND A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS.
ONE CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE ANY SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AS THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL JUST BE MOVING ONSHORE AT THIS TIME PER
ENSEMBLE IDEAS.

WINDS WILL STAY UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH
THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ANY TIME FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND BECOME MORE WEST AND SLACKEN BEHIND IT. AS FAR AS
PRECIP, THE FRONT WILL BE SHEARING AS IT MOVES THROUGH SO ONLY
EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW MAY MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY, BUT THE COLD AIR LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE BEST CHANCE NORTH OF I-80. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
MUCH COOLER, DROPPING AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
FRIDAY. WALLMANN
&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT HAZE TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE MAIN THREAT THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS CA-NV. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AFTER 22Z TODAY. THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL
BE EAST OF 395 AND SOUTH OF I-80 TONIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT NORTH
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS/VIS AT MAIN
TERMINALS ABOUT 20 PCT FOR KRNO/KCXP AND 10-15 PCT AT
KMMH/KTVL/KTRK WITH THE EAST FLOW. SOME MTN OBSCN LIKELY 00-18Z
SUNDAY IN THE BANDS OF SHOWERS. WALLMANN
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










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