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000
FXUS65 KREV 030048 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
234 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO WANE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS
INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE
THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A BIT SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT ARE STARTING TO POP IN THE TAHOE BASIN AND SIERRA FRONT WHERE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE LED TO THE BEST SURFACE HEATING. SOME
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH OF RENO TO NEAR SUSANVILLE WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. MESOSCALE MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF RENO INTO LASSEN AND NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
INCREASING SHEAR ALOFT MAY HELP TO MAKE A FEW OF THESE STORMS
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE. DEEP MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR
1.0") WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND STEEP UPPER LAPSE RATES. NOT SUPER
CONFIDENT ON THIS EVENT AS THE PV WAVE LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK.
WE DON`T THINK IT`LL BE ANYTHING LIKE WE SAW LAST NIGHT FOR
LIGHTNING, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT.

BY MONDAY, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REALLY STARTS TO DROP OFF AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DRIES OUT THE REGION. WE LOWERED STORM CHANCES FOR
MONDAY TO ISOLATED, WITH A MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS LIKELY. AS
PRECIPITIABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO AROUND 0.75" AND STORM MOTIONS
INCREASING, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE NARROW RAIN CORES AND SOME
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE
DETAILS ON FIRE IMPACTS.

FOR TUESDAY, AGAIN WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
IN WESTERN NEVADA, BUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND JET NOSE MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN CA, WE COULD SEE INCREASING COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL AS AN UPPER LOW DEPARTS WEDNESDAY AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY THURSDAY. A DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION WITH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY WEDNESDAY.

THE FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW WHICH MAY PROVIDE A SOLID POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. UNCERTAINTY HINGES ON THE
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE GFS AND EC SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, JUDGING THE INHERENT
UNCERTAINTIES IN FORECASTING CLOSED LOW SYSTEMS ALONG WITH ONLY
MODEST ENSEMBLE SPREADS, WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION JUST ABOUT A 20%
FOR STORMS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. IF THE POSITION OF THE LOW
REMAINS WHERE ITS CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE GFS/EC IT WOULD PLACE
THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND EVEN LEFT EXIT JET DYNAMICS. ORGANIZED
CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING. OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IS LOW-MEDIUM UNTIL BETTER CONFIDENCE IS ESTABLISHED WITH PLACEMENT
OF THE LOW.

OVERALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK ON THURSDAY WITH LOWER TO
MID 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND LOWER 80S ACROSS SIERRA
VALLEYS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE KEEPS FRIDAY`S LOW PROGRESSIVE WHICH
WILL LINGER SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SATURDAY WITH OTHERWISE COOLER
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AS OF 21Z, ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA CONTINUE
NEAR KTVL AND KTRK. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO MOVE NORTH OF OF KTVL BY
00Z AND NORTH OF KCXP/KRNO/KTRK AFTER 02Z. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WITH LESS STORMS FOR MONDAY. ONLY A 15-20% CHANCE OF
STORMS IMPACTING THE KRNO/KCXP/KMMH TERMINALS AND LESS THAN 10% FOR
KTRK/KTVL. FUENTES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO MAJOR SHIFTS IN THE THOUGHT PROCESS ABOUT EXPECTED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THIS WEEK. WHILE CONDITIONS BECOME DRIER THROUGH
TUESDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON, THE
INGREDIENTS ARE NOT LINING UP FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE. PWATS
WILL FAVOR HYBRIDIZED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AS WEAK FORCING MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FORCING IS OUT OF PHASE WITH OTHER
INSTABILITY ENHANCING FACTORS, HENCE THE MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE.
STILL, STORM MOVEMENT FAVORS DRIER THUNDERSTORMS AND A FEW NEW FIRE
STARTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR TUESDAY, FORCING PARAMETERS ARE
BETTER, BUT MOISTURE BECOMES MORE ANEMIC WITH PWATS BACK DOWN TO
0.6". AGAIN, WHILE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME DRIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY,
IT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MORE EXTENSIVE COVERAGE. OUTFLOW POTENTIAL
DOES INCREASE, HOWEVER, AS THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER DRIES OUT FURTHER.

THE NEXT THREAT WILL COME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS AS
ZEPHYR WINDS INCREASE; THURSDAY WILL BE THE BREEZIER DAY WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH. ANY HOLDOVERS MAY BECOME A NUISANCE AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BOTTOM OUT DURING LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY
LIGHTNING BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WITH 3 DAYS OF DRYING OUT, DECENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND STRONGER SYSTEM DYNAMICS, THERE IS A
MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. HOWEVER, CONSIDERING HOW FAR OUT THIS IS, CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE ONE WAY OR ANOTHER; JUST A CONSIDERATION FOR PLANNING
PURPOSES AT THIS POINT. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 030048 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
234 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO WANE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS
INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE
THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A BIT SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT ARE STARTING TO POP IN THE TAHOE BASIN AND SIERRA FRONT WHERE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE LED TO THE BEST SURFACE HEATING. SOME
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH OF RENO TO NEAR SUSANVILLE WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. MESOSCALE MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF RENO INTO LASSEN AND NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
INCREASING SHEAR ALOFT MAY HELP TO MAKE A FEW OF THESE STORMS
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE. DEEP MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR
1.0") WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND STEEP UPPER LAPSE RATES. NOT SUPER
CONFIDENT ON THIS EVENT AS THE PV WAVE LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK.
WE DON`T THINK IT`LL BE ANYTHING LIKE WE SAW LAST NIGHT FOR
LIGHTNING, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT.

BY MONDAY, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REALLY STARTS TO DROP OFF AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DRIES OUT THE REGION. WE LOWERED STORM CHANCES FOR
MONDAY TO ISOLATED, WITH A MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS LIKELY. AS
PRECIPITIABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO AROUND 0.75" AND STORM MOTIONS
INCREASING, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE NARROW RAIN CORES AND SOME
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE
DETAILS ON FIRE IMPACTS.

FOR TUESDAY, AGAIN WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
IN WESTERN NEVADA, BUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND JET NOSE MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN CA, WE COULD SEE INCREASING COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL AS AN UPPER LOW DEPARTS WEDNESDAY AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY THURSDAY. A DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION WITH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY WEDNESDAY.

THE FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW WHICH MAY PROVIDE A SOLID POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. UNCERTAINTY HINGES ON THE
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE GFS AND EC SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, JUDGING THE INHERENT
UNCERTAINTIES IN FORECASTING CLOSED LOW SYSTEMS ALONG WITH ONLY
MODEST ENSEMBLE SPREADS, WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION JUST ABOUT A 20%
FOR STORMS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. IF THE POSITION OF THE LOW
REMAINS WHERE ITS CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE GFS/EC IT WOULD PLACE
THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND EVEN LEFT EXIT JET DYNAMICS. ORGANIZED
CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING. OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IS LOW-MEDIUM UNTIL BETTER CONFIDENCE IS ESTABLISHED WITH PLACEMENT
OF THE LOW.

OVERALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK ON THURSDAY WITH LOWER TO
MID 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND LOWER 80S ACROSS SIERRA
VALLEYS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE KEEPS FRIDAY`S LOW PROGRESSIVE WHICH
WILL LINGER SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SATURDAY WITH OTHERWISE COOLER
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AS OF 21Z, ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA CONTINUE
NEAR KTVL AND KTRK. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO MOVE NORTH OF OF KTVL BY
00Z AND NORTH OF KCXP/KRNO/KTRK AFTER 02Z. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WITH LESS STORMS FOR MONDAY. ONLY A 15-20% CHANCE OF
STORMS IMPACTING THE KRNO/KCXP/KMMH TERMINALS AND LESS THAN 10% FOR
KTRK/KTVL. FUENTES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO MAJOR SHIFTS IN THE THOUGHT PROCESS ABOUT EXPECTED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THIS WEEK. WHILE CONDITIONS BECOME DRIER THROUGH
TUESDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON, THE
INGREDIENTS ARE NOT LINING UP FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE. PWATS
WILL FAVOR HYBRIDIZED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AS WEAK FORCING MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FORCING IS OUT OF PHASE WITH OTHER
INSTABILITY ENHANCING FACTORS, HENCE THE MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE.
STILL, STORM MOVEMENT FAVORS DRIER THUNDERSTORMS AND A FEW NEW FIRE
STARTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR TUESDAY, FORCING PARAMETERS ARE
BETTER, BUT MOISTURE BECOMES MORE ANEMIC WITH PWATS BACK DOWN TO
0.6". AGAIN, WHILE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME DRIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY,
IT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MORE EXTENSIVE COVERAGE. OUTFLOW POTENTIAL
DOES INCREASE, HOWEVER, AS THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER DRIES OUT FURTHER.

THE NEXT THREAT WILL COME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS AS
ZEPHYR WINDS INCREASE; THURSDAY WILL BE THE BREEZIER DAY WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH. ANY HOLDOVERS MAY BECOME A NUISANCE AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BOTTOM OUT DURING LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY
LIGHTNING BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WITH 3 DAYS OF DRYING OUT, DECENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND STRONGER SYSTEM DYNAMICS, THERE IS A
MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. HOWEVER, CONSIDERING HOW FAR OUT THIS IS, CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE ONE WAY OR ANOTHER; JUST A CONSIDERATION FOR PLANNING
PURPOSES AT THIS POINT. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 022134
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
234 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO WANE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS
INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE
THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A BIG SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT ARE STARTING TO POP IN THE TAHOE BASIN AND SIERRA FRONT WHERE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE LED TO THE BEST SURFACE HEATING. SOME
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH OF RENO TO NEAR SUSANVILLE WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. MESOSCALE MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF RENO INTO LASSEN AND NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
INCREASING SHEAR ALOFT MAY HELP TO MAKE A FEW OF THESE STORMS
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE. DEEP MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR
1.0") WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND STEEP UPPER LAPSE RATES. NOT SUPER
CONFIDENT ON THIS EVENT AS THE PV WAVE LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK.
WE DON`T THINK IT`LL BE ANYTHING LIKE WE SAW LAST NIGHT FOR
LIGHTNING, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT.

BY MONDAY, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REALLY STARTS TO DROP OFF AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DRIES OUT THE REGION. WE LOWERED STORM CHANCES FOR
MONDAY TO ISOLATED, WITH A MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS LIKELY. AS
PRECIPITIABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO AROUND 0.75" AND STORM MOTIONS
INCREASING, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE NARROW RAIN CORES AND SOME
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE
DETAILS ON FIRE IMPACTS.

FOR TUESDAY, AGAIN WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
IN WESTERN NEVADA, BUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND JET NOSE MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN CA, WE COULD SEE INCREASING COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL AS AN UPPER LOW DEPARTS WEDNESDAY AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY THURSDAY. A DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION WITH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY WEDNESDAY.

THE FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW WHICH MAY PROVIDE A SOLID POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. UNCERTAINTY HINGES ON THE
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE GFS AND EC SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, JUDGING THE INHERENT
UNCERTAINTIES IN FORECASTING CLOSED LOW SYSTEMS ALONG WITH ONLY
MODEST ENSEMBLE SPREADS, WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION JUST ABOUT A 20%
FOR STORMS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. IF THE POSITION OF THE LOW
REMAINS WHERE ITS CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE GFS/EC IT WOULD PLACE
THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND EVEN LEFT EXIT JET DYNAMICS. ORGANIZED
CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING. OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IS LOW-MEDIUM UNTIL BETTER CONFIDENCE IS ESTABLISHED WITH PLACEMENT
OF THE LOW.

OVERALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK ON THURSDAY WITH LOWER TO
MID 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND LOWER 80S ACROSS SIERRA
VALLEYS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE KEEPS FRIDAY`S LOW PROGRESSIVE WHICH
WILL LINGER SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SATURDAY WITH OTHERWISE COOLER
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AS OF 21Z, ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA CONTINUE
NEAR KTVL AND KTRK. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO MOVE NORTH OF OF KTVL BY
00Z AND NORTH OF KCXP/KRNO/KTRK AFTER 02Z. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WITH LESS STORMS FOR MONDAY. ONLY A 15-20% CHANCE OF
STORMS IMPACTING THE KRNO/KCXP/KMMH TERMINALS AND LESS THAN 10% FOR
KTRK/KTVL. FUENTES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO MAJOR SHIFTS IN THE THOUGHT PROCESS ABOUT EXPECTED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THIS WEEK. WHILE CONDITIONS BECOME DRIER THROUGH
TUESDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON, THE
INGREDIENTS ARE NOT LINING UP FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE. PWATS
WILL FAVOR HYBRIDIZED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AS WEAK FORCING MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FORCING IS OUT OF PHASE WITH OTHER
INSTABILITY ENHANCING FACTORS, HENCE THE MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE.
STILL, STORM MOVEMENT FAVORS DRIER THUNDERSTORMS AND A FEW NEW FIRE
STARTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR TUESDAY, FORCING PARAMETERS ARE
BETTER, BUT MOISTURE BECOMES MORE ANEMIC WITH PWATS BACK DOWN TO
0.6". AGAIN, WHILE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME DRIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY,
IT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MORE EXTENSIVE COVERAGE. OUTFLOW POTENTIAL
DOES INCREASE, HOWEVER, AS THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER DRIES OUT FURTHER.

THE NEXT THREAT WILL COME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS AS
ZEPHYR WINDS INCREASE; THURSDAY WILL BE THE BREEZIER DAY WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH. ANY HOLDOVERS MAY BECOME A NUISANCE AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BOTTOM OUT DURING LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY
LIGHTNING BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WITH 3 DAYS OF DRYING OUT, DECENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND STRONGER SYSTEM DYNAMICS, THERE IS A
MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. HOWEVER, CONSIDERING HOW FAR OUT THIS IS, CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE ONE WAY OR ANOTHER; JUST A CONSIDERATION FOR PLANNING
PURPOSES AT THIS POINT. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 022134
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
234 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO WANE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS
INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE
THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A BIG SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT ARE STARTING TO POP IN THE TAHOE BASIN AND SIERRA FRONT WHERE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE LED TO THE BEST SURFACE HEATING. SOME
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH OF RENO TO NEAR SUSANVILLE WITH
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. MESOSCALE MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF RENO INTO LASSEN AND NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
INCREASING SHEAR ALOFT MAY HELP TO MAKE A FEW OF THESE STORMS
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE. DEEP MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR
1.0") WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND STEEP UPPER LAPSE RATES. NOT SUPER
CONFIDENT ON THIS EVENT AS THE PV WAVE LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK.
WE DON`T THINK IT`LL BE ANYTHING LIKE WE SAW LAST NIGHT FOR
LIGHTNING, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT.

BY MONDAY, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REALLY STARTS TO DROP OFF AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW DRIES OUT THE REGION. WE LOWERED STORM CHANCES FOR
MONDAY TO ISOLATED, WITH A MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS LIKELY. AS
PRECIPITIABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO AROUND 0.75" AND STORM MOTIONS
INCREASING, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE NARROW RAIN CORES AND SOME
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE
DETAILS ON FIRE IMPACTS.

FOR TUESDAY, AGAIN WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
IN WESTERN NEVADA, BUT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND JET NOSE MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN CA, WE COULD SEE INCREASING COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL AS AN UPPER LOW DEPARTS WEDNESDAY AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY THURSDAY. A DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION WITH A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
WASHOE COUNTY WEDNESDAY.

THE FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE ON A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW WHICH MAY PROVIDE A SOLID POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. UNCERTAINTY HINGES ON THE
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE GFS AND EC SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, JUDGING THE INHERENT
UNCERTAINTIES IN FORECASTING CLOSED LOW SYSTEMS ALONG WITH ONLY
MODEST ENSEMBLE SPREADS, WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION JUST ABOUT A 20%
FOR STORMS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. IF THE POSITION OF THE LOW
REMAINS WHERE ITS CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE GFS/EC IT WOULD PLACE
THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND EVEN LEFT EXIT JET DYNAMICS. ORGANIZED
CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH GOOD DYNAMIC FORCING. OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IS LOW-MEDIUM UNTIL BETTER CONFIDENCE IS ESTABLISHED WITH PLACEMENT
OF THE LOW.

OVERALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK ON THURSDAY WITH LOWER TO
MID 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND LOWER 80S ACROSS SIERRA
VALLEYS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE KEEPS FRIDAY`S LOW PROGRESSIVE WHICH
WILL LINGER SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SATURDAY WITH OTHERWISE COOLER
AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AS OF 21Z, ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA CONTINUE
NEAR KTVL AND KTRK. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO MOVE NORTH OF OF KTVL BY
00Z AND NORTH OF KCXP/KRNO/KTRK AFTER 02Z. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITHIN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WITH LESS STORMS FOR MONDAY. ONLY A 15-20% CHANCE OF
STORMS IMPACTING THE KRNO/KCXP/KMMH TERMINALS AND LESS THAN 10% FOR
KTRK/KTVL. FUENTES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO MAJOR SHIFTS IN THE THOUGHT PROCESS ABOUT EXPECTED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THIS WEEK. WHILE CONDITIONS BECOME DRIER THROUGH
TUESDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON, THE
INGREDIENTS ARE NOT LINING UP FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE. PWATS
WILL FAVOR HYBRIDIZED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AS WEAK FORCING MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FORCING IS OUT OF PHASE WITH OTHER
INSTABILITY ENHANCING FACTORS, HENCE THE MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE.
STILL, STORM MOVEMENT FAVORS DRIER THUNDERSTORMS AND A FEW NEW FIRE
STARTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR TUESDAY, FORCING PARAMETERS ARE
BETTER, BUT MOISTURE BECOMES MORE ANEMIC WITH PWATS BACK DOWN TO
0.6". AGAIN, WHILE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME DRIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY,
IT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR MORE EXTENSIVE COVERAGE. OUTFLOW POTENTIAL
DOES INCREASE, HOWEVER, AS THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER DRIES OUT FURTHER.

THE NEXT THREAT WILL COME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS AS
ZEPHYR WINDS INCREASE; THURSDAY WILL BE THE BREEZIER DAY WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH. ANY HOLDOVERS MAY BECOME A NUISANCE AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BOTTOM OUT DURING LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY
LIGHTNING BACK INTO THE FORECAST. WITH 3 DAYS OF DRYING OUT, DECENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND STRONGER SYSTEM DYNAMICS, THERE IS A
MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. HOWEVER, CONSIDERING HOW FAR OUT THIS IS, CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE ONE WAY OR ANOTHER; JUST A CONSIDERATION FOR PLANNING
PURPOSES AT THIS POINT. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 021003
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
303 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY TO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA,
WITH LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO WANE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TO CUT BACK THUNDERSTORMS
TO MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN (AFTERNOON AND EVENING) TIMING FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MOVED THROUGH
WESTERN NEVADA LAST EVENING HAS PUSHED OFF TO WEST OF THE SIERRA
CREST THIS MORNING, WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 70 IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. LOOKING DOWN INTO SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA, ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE IS WORKING NORTH
PER INFRARED SATELLITE INDICATIONS OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER
ESMERALDA AND NYE COUNTIES. THE IMPULSE IS PROGGED BY THE 08Z HRRR
TO FIRE UP SHOWERS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE APPROACHING COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND THE
RATHER MOIST ATMOSPHERE. ELSEWHERE SOUTH AND WEST OF AN ALTURAS TO
RENO TO FALLON LINE, A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OR EVEN A VERY ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON, THE HRRR AND NAM HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS FOCUSING THE
BEST SHOT AT CONVECTION NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AHEAD THE INCOMING
UPPER DISTURBANCE. THOSE MODELS HAVE ALSO REDUCED THEIR AFTERNOON
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES AS THEY
FOCUS THE FORCING FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER, PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND THE NAM SHOWS SOME
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE, I HAVE HELD OFF ON REDUCING
POP WHOLESALE FOR MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AS FAR AS THE NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, THE RELATIVELY
HIGH MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO THE REGION SINCE YESTERDAY (PWAT NEAR
1" IN RENO CURRENTLY) SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
UNDER STORM CORES DESPITE SOME MODEST STORM MOTION OF UP TO 10-15
KTS. IN FACT, IF STORMS GET HUNG UP ON TERRAIN OR TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREA LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH THE HIGH PWATS.

LATE TONIGHT, AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO TREK SLOWLY
THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA, SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE BASIN AND RANGE AND OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD WANE AS PWATS
FALL OFF SOME WITH DRIER WESTERLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE REGION.
ALSO, WITH WEAKER UPPER FORCING AS COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS, STORMS WILL NEED TO RELY ON DAYTIME HEATING TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE, I HAVE CUT BACK THE THUNDERSTORM TIMING TO MORE
DIURNALLY-DEPENDENT TIMES. STORM FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, WHICH MAY BRING HYBRID WET/DRY STORMS BACK INTO PLAY
VERSUS THE WETTER STORMS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION FOR MORE ON THE CONCERNS WITH CONVECTION ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH THE FIRST PART OF THE
UPPER LOW EXITING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN LOW NOW FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH WEDNESDAY WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL BE TOO
STABLE. A BREAK IS EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE THE MAIN LOW MOVES IN
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
IT WILL BE COOLER ALOFT WITH IT. WHILE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE GREAT,
THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION AT LEAST
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ADDED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR THESE AREAS. STRONG FORCING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THE STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY
AUGUST. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR WESTERN NV AND
70S IN THE SIERRA. A TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM ONLY TO SEE THE FLOW BACK TO THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH PERHAPS A
LIGHT AFTERNOON ZEPHYR FOR THURSDAY. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST EARLY
THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN, BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE VFR. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING 13-18Z NEAR KMMH AND KHTH, ABOUT A 10%
CHANCE. FOR THE AFTERNOON, EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE AROUND 19Z AND
LAST THRU 02Z NEAR HIGHWAY 395 AND 05Z FURTHER EAST. CHANCE OF
IMPACT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP ABOUT 35% WITH SMALL HAIL AND SFC
WND GUSTS TO 40 KTS. LESSER CHANCE FOR KMMH THIS AFTERNOON AT
AROUND 25%.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LESS STORMS FOR MONDAY. ONLY A
20% CHANCE OF STORMS AFFECTING TERMINALS AND LESS THAN 10% FOR
KTRK/KTVL. WALLMANN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE AFTER THE SCATTERED STORMS FROM EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST. MORE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH MOISTURE UP, STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WET. SOME AREAS ALREADY RECEIVED UP TO 3/4" OF RAIN
YESTERDAY FROM STORMS AND THE SAME IS POSSIBLE TODAY. EVEN SO, A FEW
SMALL FIRES OUTSIDE STORM CORES ARE POSSIBLE FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES.

A LITTLE DRIER MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES. IT ALSO APPEARS
TO STABILIZE A BIT WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST EXCEPT
OVER MINERAL COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE MORE HYBRID WET/DRY, BUT WITH
LOWER COVERAGE DO NOT THINK ANY WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY.

TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT A PIECE OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THE FORCING WILL BE STRONG MOISTURE
REMAINS WITH PW AROUND 0.6", BUT LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE ACTUALLY
SOMEWHAT STABLE. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE EC/GFS
DRIER AND MORE STABLE WHILE THE NAM SHOWS A SLUG OF MOISTURE NEAR
600 MB THAT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE CONVECTION AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY MORNING. IF THE NAM IS RIGHT, A DECENT DRY LIGHTNING
OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN NV, WHILE IT WOULD BE ONLY ISOLATED
AT BEST WITH THE EC/GFS. LEANING TOWARD THE EC/GFS FOR NOW, BUT WILL
BE MONITORED.

THE NEXT CONCERN WOULD BE WHEN THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IT WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE WITH
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE. MORE DRY LIGHTNING
IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS LOW AS WELL. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 021003
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
303 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY TO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA,
WITH LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO WANE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TO CUT BACK THUNDERSTORMS
TO MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN (AFTERNOON AND EVENING) TIMING FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MOVED THROUGH
WESTERN NEVADA LAST EVENING HAS PUSHED OFF TO WEST OF THE SIERRA
CREST THIS MORNING, WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 70 IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. LOOKING DOWN INTO SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA, ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE IS WORKING NORTH
PER INFRARED SATELLITE INDICATIONS OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER
ESMERALDA AND NYE COUNTIES. THE IMPULSE IS PROGGED BY THE 08Z HRRR
TO FIRE UP SHOWERS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE APPROACHING COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND THE
RATHER MOIST ATMOSPHERE. ELSEWHERE SOUTH AND WEST OF AN ALTURAS TO
RENO TO FALLON LINE, A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OR EVEN A VERY ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON, THE HRRR AND NAM HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS FOCUSING THE
BEST SHOT AT CONVECTION NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AHEAD THE INCOMING
UPPER DISTURBANCE. THOSE MODELS HAVE ALSO REDUCED THEIR AFTERNOON
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES AS THEY
FOCUS THE FORCING FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER, PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND THE NAM SHOWS SOME
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE, I HAVE HELD OFF ON REDUCING
POP WHOLESALE FOR MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AS FAR AS THE NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, THE RELATIVELY
HIGH MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO THE REGION SINCE YESTERDAY (PWAT NEAR
1" IN RENO CURRENTLY) SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
UNDER STORM CORES DESPITE SOME MODEST STORM MOTION OF UP TO 10-15
KTS. IN FACT, IF STORMS GET HUNG UP ON TERRAIN OR TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREA LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH THE HIGH PWATS.

LATE TONIGHT, AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO TREK SLOWLY
THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA, SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE BASIN AND RANGE AND OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD WANE AS PWATS
FALL OFF SOME WITH DRIER WESTERLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE REGION.
ALSO, WITH WEAKER UPPER FORCING AS COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS, STORMS WILL NEED TO RELY ON DAYTIME HEATING TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE, I HAVE CUT BACK THE THUNDERSTORM TIMING TO MORE
DIURNALLY-DEPENDENT TIMES. STORM FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, WHICH MAY BRING HYBRID WET/DRY STORMS BACK INTO PLAY
VERSUS THE WETTER STORMS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION FOR MORE ON THE CONCERNS WITH CONVECTION ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH THE FIRST PART OF THE
UPPER LOW EXITING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN LOW NOW FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH WEDNESDAY WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL BE TOO
STABLE. A BREAK IS EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE THE MAIN LOW MOVES IN
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
IT WILL BE COOLER ALOFT WITH IT. WHILE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE GREAT,
THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION AT LEAST
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ADDED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR THESE AREAS. STRONG FORCING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THE STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY
AUGUST. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR WESTERN NV AND
70S IN THE SIERRA. A TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM ONLY TO SEE THE FLOW BACK TO THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH PERHAPS A
LIGHT AFTERNOON ZEPHYR FOR THURSDAY. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST EARLY
THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN, BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE VFR. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING 13-18Z NEAR KMMH AND KHTH, ABOUT A 10%
CHANCE. FOR THE AFTERNOON, EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE AROUND 19Z AND
LAST THRU 02Z NEAR HIGHWAY 395 AND 05Z FURTHER EAST. CHANCE OF
IMPACT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP ABOUT 35% WITH SMALL HAIL AND SFC
WND GUSTS TO 40 KTS. LESSER CHANCE FOR KMMH THIS AFTERNOON AT
AROUND 25%.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LESS STORMS FOR MONDAY. ONLY A
20% CHANCE OF STORMS AFFECTING TERMINALS AND LESS THAN 10% FOR
KTRK/KTVL. WALLMANN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE AFTER THE SCATTERED STORMS FROM EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST. MORE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH MOISTURE UP, STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WET. SOME AREAS ALREADY RECEIVED UP TO 3/4" OF RAIN
YESTERDAY FROM STORMS AND THE SAME IS POSSIBLE TODAY. EVEN SO, A FEW
SMALL FIRES OUTSIDE STORM CORES ARE POSSIBLE FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES.

A LITTLE DRIER MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES. IT ALSO APPEARS
TO STABILIZE A BIT WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST EXCEPT
OVER MINERAL COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE MORE HYBRID WET/DRY, BUT WITH
LOWER COVERAGE DO NOT THINK ANY WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY.

TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT A PIECE OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THE FORCING WILL BE STRONG MOISTURE
REMAINS WITH PW AROUND 0.6", BUT LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE ACTUALLY
SOMEWHAT STABLE. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE EC/GFS
DRIER AND MORE STABLE WHILE THE NAM SHOWS A SLUG OF MOISTURE NEAR
600 MB THAT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE CONVECTION AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY MORNING. IF THE NAM IS RIGHT, A DECENT DRY LIGHTNING
OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN NV, WHILE IT WOULD BE ONLY ISOLATED
AT BEST WITH THE EC/GFS. LEANING TOWARD THE EC/GFS FOR NOW, BUT WILL
BE MONITORED.

THE NEXT CONCERN WOULD BE WHEN THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IT WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE WITH
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE. MORE DRY LIGHTNING
IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS LOW AS WELL. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 021003
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
303 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY TO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA,
WITH LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO WANE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TO CUT BACK THUNDERSTORMS
TO MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN (AFTERNOON AND EVENING) TIMING FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MOVED THROUGH
WESTERN NEVADA LAST EVENING HAS PUSHED OFF TO WEST OF THE SIERRA
CREST THIS MORNING, WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 70 IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. LOOKING DOWN INTO SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA, ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE IS WORKING NORTH
PER INFRARED SATELLITE INDICATIONS OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER
ESMERALDA AND NYE COUNTIES. THE IMPULSE IS PROGGED BY THE 08Z HRRR
TO FIRE UP SHOWERS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE APPROACHING COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND THE
RATHER MOIST ATMOSPHERE. ELSEWHERE SOUTH AND WEST OF AN ALTURAS TO
RENO TO FALLON LINE, A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OR EVEN A VERY ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON, THE HRRR AND NAM HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS FOCUSING THE
BEST SHOT AT CONVECTION NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AHEAD THE INCOMING
UPPER DISTURBANCE. THOSE MODELS HAVE ALSO REDUCED THEIR AFTERNOON
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES AS THEY
FOCUS THE FORCING FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER, PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND THE NAM SHOWS SOME
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE, I HAVE HELD OFF ON REDUCING
POP WHOLESALE FOR MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AS FAR AS THE NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, THE RELATIVELY
HIGH MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO THE REGION SINCE YESTERDAY (PWAT NEAR
1" IN RENO CURRENTLY) SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
UNDER STORM CORES DESPITE SOME MODEST STORM MOTION OF UP TO 10-15
KTS. IN FACT, IF STORMS GET HUNG UP ON TERRAIN OR TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREA LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH THE HIGH PWATS.

LATE TONIGHT, AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO TREK SLOWLY
THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA, SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE BASIN AND RANGE AND OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD WANE AS PWATS
FALL OFF SOME WITH DRIER WESTERLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE REGION.
ALSO, WITH WEAKER UPPER FORCING AS COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS, STORMS WILL NEED TO RELY ON DAYTIME HEATING TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE, I HAVE CUT BACK THE THUNDERSTORM TIMING TO MORE
DIURNALLY-DEPENDENT TIMES. STORM FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, WHICH MAY BRING HYBRID WET/DRY STORMS BACK INTO PLAY
VERSUS THE WETTER STORMS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION FOR MORE ON THE CONCERNS WITH CONVECTION ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH THE FIRST PART OF THE
UPPER LOW EXITING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN LOW NOW FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH WEDNESDAY WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL BE TOO
STABLE. A BREAK IS EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE THE MAIN LOW MOVES IN
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
IT WILL BE COOLER ALOFT WITH IT. WHILE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE GREAT,
THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION AT LEAST
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ADDED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR THESE AREAS. STRONG FORCING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THE STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY
AUGUST. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR WESTERN NV AND
70S IN THE SIERRA. A TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM ONLY TO SEE THE FLOW BACK TO THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH PERHAPS A
LIGHT AFTERNOON ZEPHYR FOR THURSDAY. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST EARLY
THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN, BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE VFR. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING 13-18Z NEAR KMMH AND KHTH, ABOUT A 10%
CHANCE. FOR THE AFTERNOON, EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE AROUND 19Z AND
LAST THRU 02Z NEAR HIGHWAY 395 AND 05Z FURTHER EAST. CHANCE OF
IMPACT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP ABOUT 35% WITH SMALL HAIL AND SFC
WND GUSTS TO 40 KTS. LESSER CHANCE FOR KMMH THIS AFTERNOON AT
AROUND 25%.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LESS STORMS FOR MONDAY. ONLY A
20% CHANCE OF STORMS AFFECTING TERMINALS AND LESS THAN 10% FOR
KTRK/KTVL. WALLMANN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE AFTER THE SCATTERED STORMS FROM EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST. MORE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH MOISTURE UP, STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WET. SOME AREAS ALREADY RECEIVED UP TO 3/4" OF RAIN
YESTERDAY FROM STORMS AND THE SAME IS POSSIBLE TODAY. EVEN SO, A FEW
SMALL FIRES OUTSIDE STORM CORES ARE POSSIBLE FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES.

A LITTLE DRIER MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES. IT ALSO APPEARS
TO STABILIZE A BIT WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST EXCEPT
OVER MINERAL COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE MORE HYBRID WET/DRY, BUT WITH
LOWER COVERAGE DO NOT THINK ANY WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY.

TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT A PIECE OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THE FORCING WILL BE STRONG MOISTURE
REMAINS WITH PW AROUND 0.6", BUT LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE ACTUALLY
SOMEWHAT STABLE. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE EC/GFS
DRIER AND MORE STABLE WHILE THE NAM SHOWS A SLUG OF MOISTURE NEAR
600 MB THAT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE CONVECTION AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY MORNING. IF THE NAM IS RIGHT, A DECENT DRY LIGHTNING
OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN NV, WHILE IT WOULD BE ONLY ISOLATED
AT BEST WITH THE EC/GFS. LEANING TOWARD THE EC/GFS FOR NOW, BUT WILL
BE MONITORED.

THE NEXT CONCERN WOULD BE WHEN THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IT WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE WITH
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE. MORE DRY LIGHTNING
IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS LOW AS WELL. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 020351
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
851 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS STARTING TO CALM DOWN THIS EVENING. WHILE WE DID NOT
HAVE MUCH COVERAGE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...STRONG STORMS DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF PORTOLA AND BEGAN TO PROPAGATE NORTH ALONG A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY INTO LASSEN COUNTY BEFORE THEN PUSHING WEST
ON EITHER A DIFFERENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OR IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING EASTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. EITHER WAY THE
CONVECTION WAS NOT RESPONDING TO DAYTIME HEATING AS MUCH AS LOW TO
MID LEVEL FORCING.

AM NOW SEEING GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER LYON/MINERAL
COUNTIES THAT MAY BE A RESPONSE TO A MESO-HIGH OVER THE REGION
THAT HAS DEVELOPED DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIR. MODELS DO NOT
TYPICALLY PICK UP ON THIS VERY WELL AND IT WILL LIKELY NOT LAST
VERY LONG INTO THE EVENING.

LATEST NAM GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH A WAVE MOVING UP
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOULD BE SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING. THIS INCREASED
MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TONIGHT AND MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EARLY
SUNDAY. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS.
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM
THIS WEEKEND`S STORMS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR
AVERAGE ON SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. AN IMPRESSIVE 700 LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS MAINLY IN ALPINE, MONO, SOUTHERN LYON AND
MINERAL COUNTIES. ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE
STORMS AND ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD TAKE SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID GETTING HIT BY LIGHTNING.

THESE STORMS ARE A MIX OF WET AND DRY, WITH NARROW RAIN CORES AND
SOME NEW LIGHTNING FIRES BEING IGNITED ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT. SEE
OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING
WITH THESE STORMS PROGRESSIVELY BECOMING WETTER WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
SPREADING FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE RENO-TAHOE AREA AND INTO
NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. FURTHER NORTH OF RENO, PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS AROUND 0.65-0.75", MEANING THAT THOSE STORMS WILL HAVE LESS
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR NEW LIGHTNING FIRES. TONIGHT, A
MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH UP FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA HELPING TO
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT, EVEN POSSIBLY A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH STORMS BECOMING WETTER AS PWAT INCREASES TO NEAR 1.0" FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN DUE TO COLDER
AIR ALOFT FROM THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. STORMS WILL ALSO BECOME
SLOWER, PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS A THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING AS WELL FOR STEEP TERRAIN AND RECENTLY BURNED
AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE EASTERN SIERRA AND THEN
PUSH INTO WESTERN NEVADA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO DRY THINGS OUT ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
FORECAST FOR MAINLY FOR WESTERN NEVADA. PWATS WILL DROP OFF ON
MONDAY TO AROUND 0.75" WITH INCREASING STORM MOTIONS. STEEP UPPER
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCOMING JET EXIT REGION WILL GET
THUNDERSTORMS GOING AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD END UP BEING
ANOTHER HYBRID TYPE DAY WITH A MIX OF WET AND DRY LIGHTNING. HOON

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
ROUND OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A FAVORABLE JET POSITION
AIDING IN LIFT. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE
BEST DYNAMICS. WHILE INITIATION OVER THE SIERRA CREST IS POSSIBLE,
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN NEVADA AS THE
AFTERNOON ZEPHYR MATERIALIZES. WHILE PWATS BRIEFLY RISE TO AROUND
0.75", STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAST AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO ABOVE 650 MB. THIS INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR STRONG AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING TO CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN
CORES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS WITH
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED AFTERNOON ZEPHYR WINDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. BY SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND EC AGREE ON A COMPACT WAVE
PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. THE
MOISTURE ISN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH PRESENT THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TO
THE FORECAST THAT AFTERNOON. DJ

AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 25 PERCENT CHANCE
A STORM MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KMMH OR KTVL AND A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
STORMS IMPACTING OTHER TERMINALS. STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS, TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. CLOUD BASES ARE
BETWEEN 10-14 KFT AGL WITH TOPS 25-35 KFT AGL. IN THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORM CELLS, TOPS MAY REACH 50 KFT AGL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY, THOUGH OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA ON SUNDAY. DJ

FIRE WEATHER...

LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ROBUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF NEW FIRES EVEN THOUGH CELLS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING DECENT PRECIPITATION. THIS IS RESULTING FROM
STRIKES OUTSIDE THE STORM CORES WITH RECEPTIVE VEGETATION THAT IS
READY TO BURN. THIS ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO A
DRIER ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. DRY LIGHTNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH NEW FIRE STARTS QUITE POSSIBLE.

WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY
WITHIN STORM FOOTPRINTS. STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE
CORES WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW NEW FIRE STARTS. HUMIDITY SHOULD
BE 15-30% DURING THE DAY LIMITING THE UPWARD FIRE-GROWTH POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR MONDAY, BUT
THESE TOO APPEAR TO BE OF THE WETTER VARIETY.

DRY LIGHTNING WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS; A WEAK WAVE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
TRIGGER MECHANISM. DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL PROMOTE STRONGER OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS WHICH WOULD BE A DANGER TO FIRE MITIGATION EFFORTS.
ADDITIONALLY, HOLDOVERS MAY BECOME A NUISANCE LATE NEXT WEEK AS
ZEPHYR WINDS INCREASE WITH SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 020351
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
851 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS STARTING TO CALM DOWN THIS EVENING. WHILE WE DID NOT
HAVE MUCH COVERAGE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...STRONG STORMS DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF PORTOLA AND BEGAN TO PROPAGATE NORTH ALONG A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY INTO LASSEN COUNTY BEFORE THEN PUSHING WEST
ON EITHER A DIFFERENT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OR IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING EASTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. EITHER WAY THE
CONVECTION WAS NOT RESPONDING TO DAYTIME HEATING AS MUCH AS LOW TO
MID LEVEL FORCING.

AM NOW SEEING GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER LYON/MINERAL
COUNTIES THAT MAY BE A RESPONSE TO A MESO-HIGH OVER THE REGION
THAT HAS DEVELOPED DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIR. MODELS DO NOT
TYPICALLY PICK UP ON THIS VERY WELL AND IT WILL LIKELY NOT LAST
VERY LONG INTO THE EVENING.

LATEST NAM GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH A WAVE MOVING UP
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOULD BE SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING. THIS INCREASED
MOISTURE AND PRESENCE OF CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TONIGHT AND MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EARLY
SUNDAY. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS.
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM
THIS WEEKEND`S STORMS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR
AVERAGE ON SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. AN IMPRESSIVE 700 LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS MAINLY IN ALPINE, MONO, SOUTHERN LYON AND
MINERAL COUNTIES. ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE
STORMS AND ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD TAKE SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID GETTING HIT BY LIGHTNING.

THESE STORMS ARE A MIX OF WET AND DRY, WITH NARROW RAIN CORES AND
SOME NEW LIGHTNING FIRES BEING IGNITED ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT. SEE
OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING
WITH THESE STORMS PROGRESSIVELY BECOMING WETTER WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
SPREADING FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE RENO-TAHOE AREA AND INTO
NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. FURTHER NORTH OF RENO, PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS AROUND 0.65-0.75", MEANING THAT THOSE STORMS WILL HAVE LESS
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR NEW LIGHTNING FIRES. TONIGHT, A
MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH UP FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA HELPING TO
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT, EVEN POSSIBLY A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH STORMS BECOMING WETTER AS PWAT INCREASES TO NEAR 1.0" FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN DUE TO COLDER
AIR ALOFT FROM THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. STORMS WILL ALSO BECOME
SLOWER, PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS A THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING AS WELL FOR STEEP TERRAIN AND RECENTLY BURNED
AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE EASTERN SIERRA AND THEN
PUSH INTO WESTERN NEVADA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO DRY THINGS OUT ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
FORECAST FOR MAINLY FOR WESTERN NEVADA. PWATS WILL DROP OFF ON
MONDAY TO AROUND 0.75" WITH INCREASING STORM MOTIONS. STEEP UPPER
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCOMING JET EXIT REGION WILL GET
THUNDERSTORMS GOING AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD END UP BEING
ANOTHER HYBRID TYPE DAY WITH A MIX OF WET AND DRY LIGHTNING. HOON

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
ROUND OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A FAVORABLE JET POSITION
AIDING IN LIFT. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE
BEST DYNAMICS. WHILE INITIATION OVER THE SIERRA CREST IS POSSIBLE,
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN NEVADA AS THE
AFTERNOON ZEPHYR MATERIALIZES. WHILE PWATS BRIEFLY RISE TO AROUND
0.75", STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAST AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO ABOVE 650 MB. THIS INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR STRONG AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING TO CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN
CORES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS WITH
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED AFTERNOON ZEPHYR WINDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. BY SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND EC AGREE ON A COMPACT WAVE
PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. THE
MOISTURE ISN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH PRESENT THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TO
THE FORECAST THAT AFTERNOON. DJ

AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 25 PERCENT CHANCE
A STORM MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KMMH OR KTVL AND A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
STORMS IMPACTING OTHER TERMINALS. STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS, TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. CLOUD BASES ARE
BETWEEN 10-14 KFT AGL WITH TOPS 25-35 KFT AGL. IN THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORM CELLS, TOPS MAY REACH 50 KFT AGL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY, THOUGH OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA ON SUNDAY. DJ

FIRE WEATHER...

LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ROBUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF NEW FIRES EVEN THOUGH CELLS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING DECENT PRECIPITATION. THIS IS RESULTING FROM
STRIKES OUTSIDE THE STORM CORES WITH RECEPTIVE VEGETATION THAT IS
READY TO BURN. THIS ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO A
DRIER ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. DRY LIGHTNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH NEW FIRE STARTS QUITE POSSIBLE.

WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY
WITHIN STORM FOOTPRINTS. STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE
CORES WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW NEW FIRE STARTS. HUMIDITY SHOULD
BE 15-30% DURING THE DAY LIMITING THE UPWARD FIRE-GROWTH POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR MONDAY, BUT
THESE TOO APPEAR TO BE OF THE WETTER VARIETY.

DRY LIGHTNING WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS; A WEAK WAVE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
TRIGGER MECHANISM. DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL PROMOTE STRONGER OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS WHICH WOULD BE A DANGER TO FIRE MITIGATION EFFORTS.
ADDITIONALLY, HOLDOVERS MAY BECOME A NUISANCE LATE NEXT WEEK AS
ZEPHYR WINDS INCREASE WITH SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 012202
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
302 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS.
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM
THIS WEEKEND`S STORMS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR
AVERAGE ON SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. AN IMPRESSIVE 700 LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS MAINLY IN ALPINE, MONO, SOUTHERN LYON AND
MINERAL COUNTIES. ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE
STORMS AND ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD TAKE SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID GETTING HIT BY LIGHTNING.

THESE STORMS ARE A MIX OF WET AND DRY, WITH NARROW RAIN CORES AND
SOME NEW LIGHTNING FIRES BEING IGNITED ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT. SEE
OUR FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING
WITH THESE STORMS PROGRESSIVELY BECOMING WETTER WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
SPREADING FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE RENO-TAHOE AREA AND INTO
NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. FURTHER NORTH OF RENO, PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS AROUND 0.65-0.75", MEANING THAT THOSE STORMS WILL HAVE LESS
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR NEW LIGHTNING FIRES. TONIGHT, A
MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH UP FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA HELPING TO
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT, EVEN POSSIBLY A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH STORMS BECOMING WETTER AS PWAT INCREASES TO NEAR 1.0" FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN DUE TO COLDER
AIR ALOFT FROM THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. STORMS WILL ALSO BECOME
SLOWER, PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS A THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING AS WELL FOR STEEP TERRAIN AND RECENTLY BURNED
AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE EASTERN SIERRA AND THEN
PUSH INTO WESTERN NEVADA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO DRY THINGS OUT ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
FORECAST FOR MAINLY FOR WESTERN NEVADA. PWATS WILL DROP OFF ON
MONDAY TO AROUND 0.75" WITH INCREASING STORM MOTIONS. STEEP UPPER
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AND INCOMING JET EXIT REGION WILL GET
THUNDERSTORMS GOING AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD END UP BEING
ANOTHER HYBRID TYPE DAY WITH A MIX OF WET AND DRY LIGHTNING. HOON

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
ROUND OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A FAVORABLE JET POSITION
AIDING IN LIFT. WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE
BEST DYNAMICS. WHILE INITIATION OVER THE SIERRA CREST IS POSSIBLE,
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN NEVADA AS THE
AFTERNOON ZEPHYR MATERIALIZES. WHILE PWATS BRIEFLY RISE TO AROUND
0.75", STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAST AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
CONFINED TO ABOVE 650 MB. THIS INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR STRONG AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING TO CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN
CORES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS WITH
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED AFTERNOON ZEPHYR WINDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. BY SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND EC AGREE ON A COMPACT WAVE
PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. THE
MOISTURE ISN`T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH PRESENT THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS TO
THE FORECAST THAT AFTERNOON. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 25 PERCENT CHANCE
A STORM MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KMMH OR KTVL AND A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
STORMS IMPACTING OTHER TERMINALS. STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS, TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. CLOUD BASES ARE
BETWEEN 10-14 KFT AGL WITH TOPS 25-35 KFT AGL. IN THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORM CELLS, TOPS MAY REACH 50 KFT AGL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY, THOUGH OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA ON SUNDAY. DJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ROBUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF NEW FIRES EVEN THOUGH CELLS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING DECENT PRECIPITATION. THIS IS RESULTING FROM
STRIKES OUTSIDE THE STORM CORES WITH RECEPTIVE VEGETATION THAT IS
READY TO BURN. THIS ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THIS EVENING INTO A
DRIER ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. DRY LIGHTNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN WITH NEW FIRE STARTS QUITE POSSIBLE.

WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY
WITHIN STORM FOOTPRINTS. STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE
CORES WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW NEW FIRE STARTS. HUMIDITY SHOULD
BE 15-30% DURING THE DAY LIMITING THE UPWARD FIRE-GROWTH POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR MONDAY, BUT
THESE TOO APPEAR TO BE OF THE WETTER VARIETY.

DRY LIGHTNING WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS; A WEAK WAVE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
TRIGGER MECHANISM. DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL PROMOTE STRONGER OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS WHICH WOULD BE A DANGER TO FIRE MITIGATION EFFORTS.
ADDITIONALLY, HOLDOVERS MAY BECOME A NUISANCE LATE NEXT WEEK AS
ZEPHYR WINDS INCREASE WITH SOME LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 011021
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
321 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THIS WEEKEND`S STORMS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR AVERAGE ON SUNDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TAPERING OFF BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LOOKING AT THE INFRARED SATELLITE THIS MORNING, CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER REMAINS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80. FARTHER SOUTH,
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS WORKING INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN MINERAL
AND MONO COUNTIES WITH A SUBTLE UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM INYO
COUNTY. THE CLOUDS NORTH OF I-80 HAVE NOT PRODUCED MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS PER RADAR RETURNS AND ARE SPREADING OUT AS IF THEY
ARE CAPPED OFF. HOWEVER, WITH THE WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH
ENOUGH DEPTH COULD BE HAD FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING. I ALSO LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THE
INCOMING FORCING, ALTHOUGH NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN NOTED SO FAR.

THIS AFTERNOON, CLEARING BEHIND THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
AND IN/NEAR THE SIERRA. THE PWAT IN RENO IS ALREADY AROUND 0.75"
AND SOUNDING MODEL PROGS SHOW PWATS IN THE 0.75" TO 0.9" RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MANY AREAS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS
NORTHERN WASHOE, NORTHEAST LASSEN AND NORTHERN PERSHING COUNTIES
WHERE PWATS MAY REMAIN CLOSER TO 0.5" THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THAT IN
MIND, ANY THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE TO PYRAMID LAKE TO
LOVELOCK LINE TODAY MAY PRODUCE MUCH LESS RAINFALL THAN AREAS
FARTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION, THE GUSTIEST OUTFLOW WINDS WILL TEND
TO BE UP NORTH (ESPECIALLY IF CLEARING DEVELOPS) WITH THE DRIEST
LOW LEVELS.

LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY, I HAVE LEFT THE RESIDUAL SHOWERS
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF AN
UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS WAVE IS NOT
READILY VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT COULD BE HIDING OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING (PER CLOUDS IN THE INFRARED).

SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED,
DIURNALLY-LINKED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS COULD
CERTAINLY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PWATS BETWEEN 0.8" AND 1" FOR
MOST LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. UPPER
FLOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE, HOWEVER STORM INTERACTIONS
COULD MAKE FOR SLOWER OR TRAINING CONVECTION WITH A LOCALIZED
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IN STEEP TERRAIN OR ON BURN SCARS.

MONDAY WILL BRING IN DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A REDUCTION
IN STORM COVERAGE (BEST SHOT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50). SNYDER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH THE MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE CHANGED LATE NEXT WEEK FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. BOTH GFS/EC SHOW THE LOW FOR TUESDAY NOW AND HAVE IT MOVING
ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THE DAY SHIFT ADDED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THE MODELS
ARE A BIT DRIER THOUGH WITH PW 2/3 INCH OR LESS. THE FORCING IS
STRONG AND THERE IS A GOOD MOIST LAYER AT 600 MB SO THINK WE WILL
SEE SOMETHING AT LEAST.

BEHIND THE LOW A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR WED/THU
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR. HOWEVER, THE
MODELS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH OVERALL WITH ONLY A
WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR US, THIS CHANGE THESE TWO
DAYS REALLY DOESN`T IMPACT THE FORECAST MUCH. BY FRIDAY, BOTH GFS/EC
AND MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING THE LOW TOWARD THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. HAVE LEFT FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW, BUT IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE, THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES ACROSS. THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW WOULD ALSO LIMIT MUCH MOISTURE BEING PULLED
NORTH FROM THE MONSOON SO STORMS COULD BE DRIER AND A FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THIS IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW
AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER REMAINS THIS MORNING, BUT IT APPEARS
LESS DENSE THAN YESTERDAY. IT ALSO APPEARS MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA AND OREGON BY MID-MORNING. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A KSVE-GERLACH LINE
20-04Z WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH SIMILAR TIMING AND THREATS.
COVERAGE WILL AGAIN DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE IS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE, CLOUD BASES
WILL LOWER WITH SOME MTN OBSCURATION POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
SIERRA PEAKS. WALLMANN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LESS CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING THUS FAR SO IT APPEARS WE WILL HAVE
AN ACTIVE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST SOUTH OF A
PORTOLA TO RENO TO FALLON LINE. NORTH OF THIS LINE, MORE ISOLATED
STORMS ARE LIKELY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LASSEN COUNTY WHERE
A FEW MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ENOUGH CLEARING. STORMS MAY
BEGIN DRY SOUTH OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE BUT THEY WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO WET AS MOISTURE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES. NORTH,
DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE ONE AREA WE WILL WATCH WILL BE EASTERN PLUMAS AND LASSEN
COUNTIES WHERE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COVERAGE PROVIDED ENOUGH
CLEARING FOR HEATING THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING, PLAN ON
WAITING UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO DECIDE ON A RED FLAG FOR ZONES
271/278. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE RENO SOUNDING THIS MORNING AND
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IR IMAGERY CAN
BE A BIT DECEIVING AND IT IS HARD TO SEE JUST HOW MANY BREAKS THERE
ARE IN THE CLOUD DECK.

BY SUNDAY, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL ZONES FOR
WETTING RAINS FROM THE STORMS ALTHOUGH A FEW SMALL FIRE STARTS ARE
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE STORM CORES. MONDAY WE WILL SEE SLOW DRYING WITH A
FEW MORE STORMS POSSIBLE, BUT THESE LOOK TO BE WET AS WELL.

NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE TWO WAVES OF CONCERN. THE FIRST IS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST FINALLY MOVES THROUGH. ENOUGH
DRYING WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE BY THEN IN THE LOW LEVELS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MUCH DRIER. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND THIS WOULD ALSO HAVE LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
SYSTEMS ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT SO A LOT CAN CHANGE, BUT IF
CURRENT MODEL RUNS HOLD WE COULD HAVE SOME DRY LIGHTNING. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 011021
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
321 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THIS WEEKEND`S STORMS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR AVERAGE ON SUNDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TAPERING OFF BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LOOKING AT THE INFRARED SATELLITE THIS MORNING, CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER REMAINS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80. FARTHER SOUTH,
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS WORKING INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN MINERAL
AND MONO COUNTIES WITH A SUBTLE UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM INYO
COUNTY. THE CLOUDS NORTH OF I-80 HAVE NOT PRODUCED MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS PER RADAR RETURNS AND ARE SPREADING OUT AS IF THEY
ARE CAPPED OFF. HOWEVER, WITH THE WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH
ENOUGH DEPTH COULD BE HAD FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING. I ALSO LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THE
INCOMING FORCING, ALTHOUGH NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN NOTED SO FAR.

THIS AFTERNOON, CLEARING BEHIND THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
AND IN/NEAR THE SIERRA. THE PWAT IN RENO IS ALREADY AROUND 0.75"
AND SOUNDING MODEL PROGS SHOW PWATS IN THE 0.75" TO 0.9" RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MANY AREAS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS
NORTHERN WASHOE, NORTHEAST LASSEN AND NORTHERN PERSHING COUNTIES
WHERE PWATS MAY REMAIN CLOSER TO 0.5" THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THAT IN
MIND, ANY THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE TO PYRAMID LAKE TO
LOVELOCK LINE TODAY MAY PRODUCE MUCH LESS RAINFALL THAN AREAS
FARTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION, THE GUSTIEST OUTFLOW WINDS WILL TEND
TO BE UP NORTH (ESPECIALLY IF CLEARING DEVELOPS) WITH THE DRIEST
LOW LEVELS.

LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY, I HAVE LEFT THE RESIDUAL SHOWERS
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF AN
UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS WAVE IS NOT
READILY VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT COULD BE HIDING OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING (PER CLOUDS IN THE INFRARED).

SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED,
DIURNALLY-LINKED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS COULD
CERTAINLY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PWATS BETWEEN 0.8" AND 1" FOR
MOST LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. UPPER
FLOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE, HOWEVER STORM INTERACTIONS
COULD MAKE FOR SLOWER OR TRAINING CONVECTION WITH A LOCALIZED
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IN STEEP TERRAIN OR ON BURN SCARS.

MONDAY WILL BRING IN DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A REDUCTION
IN STORM COVERAGE (BEST SHOT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50). SNYDER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH THE MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE CHANGED LATE NEXT WEEK FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. BOTH GFS/EC SHOW THE LOW FOR TUESDAY NOW AND HAVE IT MOVING
ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THE DAY SHIFT ADDED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THE MODELS
ARE A BIT DRIER THOUGH WITH PW 2/3 INCH OR LESS. THE FORCING IS
STRONG AND THERE IS A GOOD MOIST LAYER AT 600 MB SO THINK WE WILL
SEE SOMETHING AT LEAST.

BEHIND THE LOW A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR WED/THU
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR. HOWEVER, THE
MODELS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH OVERALL WITH ONLY A
WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR US, THIS CHANGE THESE TWO
DAYS REALLY DOESN`T IMPACT THE FORECAST MUCH. BY FRIDAY, BOTH GFS/EC
AND MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING THE LOW TOWARD THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. HAVE LEFT FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW, BUT IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE, THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES ACROSS. THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW WOULD ALSO LIMIT MUCH MOISTURE BEING PULLED
NORTH FROM THE MONSOON SO STORMS COULD BE DRIER AND A FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THIS IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW
AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER REMAINS THIS MORNING, BUT IT APPEARS
LESS DENSE THAN YESTERDAY. IT ALSO APPEARS MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA AND OREGON BY MID-MORNING. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A KSVE-GERLACH LINE
20-04Z WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH SIMILAR TIMING AND THREATS.
COVERAGE WILL AGAIN DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE IS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE, CLOUD BASES
WILL LOWER WITH SOME MTN OBSCURATION POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
SIERRA PEAKS. WALLMANN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LESS CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING THUS FAR SO IT APPEARS WE WILL HAVE
AN ACTIVE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST SOUTH OF A
PORTOLA TO RENO TO FALLON LINE. NORTH OF THIS LINE, MORE ISOLATED
STORMS ARE LIKELY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LASSEN COUNTY WHERE
A FEW MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ENOUGH CLEARING. STORMS MAY
BEGIN DRY SOUTH OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE BUT THEY WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO WET AS MOISTURE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES. NORTH,
DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE ONE AREA WE WILL WATCH WILL BE EASTERN PLUMAS AND LASSEN
COUNTIES WHERE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COVERAGE PROVIDED ENOUGH
CLEARING FOR HEATING THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING, PLAN ON
WAITING UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO DECIDE ON A RED FLAG FOR ZONES
271/278. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE RENO SOUNDING THIS MORNING AND
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IR IMAGERY CAN
BE A BIT DECEIVING AND IT IS HARD TO SEE JUST HOW MANY BREAKS THERE
ARE IN THE CLOUD DECK.

BY SUNDAY, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL ZONES FOR
WETTING RAINS FROM THE STORMS ALTHOUGH A FEW SMALL FIRE STARTS ARE
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE STORM CORES. MONDAY WE WILL SEE SLOW DRYING WITH A
FEW MORE STORMS POSSIBLE, BUT THESE LOOK TO BE WET AS WELL.

NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE TWO WAVES OF CONCERN. THE FIRST IS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST FINALLY MOVES THROUGH. ENOUGH
DRYING WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE BY THEN IN THE LOW LEVELS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MUCH DRIER. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND THIS WOULD ALSO HAVE LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
SYSTEMS ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT SO A LOT CAN CHANGE, BUT IF
CURRENT MODEL RUNS HOLD WE COULD HAVE SOME DRY LIGHTNING. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 011021
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
321 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THIS WEEKEND`S STORMS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR AVERAGE ON SUNDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TAPERING OFF BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LOOKING AT THE INFRARED SATELLITE THIS MORNING, CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER REMAINS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80. FARTHER SOUTH,
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS WORKING INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN MINERAL
AND MONO COUNTIES WITH A SUBTLE UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM INYO
COUNTY. THE CLOUDS NORTH OF I-80 HAVE NOT PRODUCED MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS PER RADAR RETURNS AND ARE SPREADING OUT AS IF THEY
ARE CAPPED OFF. HOWEVER, WITH THE WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH
ENOUGH DEPTH COULD BE HAD FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING. I ALSO LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THE
INCOMING FORCING, ALTHOUGH NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN NOTED SO FAR.

THIS AFTERNOON, CLEARING BEHIND THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
AND IN/NEAR THE SIERRA. THE PWAT IN RENO IS ALREADY AROUND 0.75"
AND SOUNDING MODEL PROGS SHOW PWATS IN THE 0.75" TO 0.9" RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MANY AREAS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS
NORTHERN WASHOE, NORTHEAST LASSEN AND NORTHERN PERSHING COUNTIES
WHERE PWATS MAY REMAIN CLOSER TO 0.5" THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THAT IN
MIND, ANY THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE TO PYRAMID LAKE TO
LOVELOCK LINE TODAY MAY PRODUCE MUCH LESS RAINFALL THAN AREAS
FARTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION, THE GUSTIEST OUTFLOW WINDS WILL TEND
TO BE UP NORTH (ESPECIALLY IF CLEARING DEVELOPS) WITH THE DRIEST
LOW LEVELS.

LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY, I HAVE LEFT THE RESIDUAL SHOWERS
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF AN
UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS WAVE IS NOT
READILY VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT COULD BE HIDING OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING (PER CLOUDS IN THE INFRARED).

SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED,
DIURNALLY-LINKED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS COULD
CERTAINLY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PWATS BETWEEN 0.8" AND 1" FOR
MOST LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. UPPER
FLOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE, HOWEVER STORM INTERACTIONS
COULD MAKE FOR SLOWER OR TRAINING CONVECTION WITH A LOCALIZED
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IN STEEP TERRAIN OR ON BURN SCARS.

MONDAY WILL BRING IN DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A REDUCTION
IN STORM COVERAGE (BEST SHOT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50). SNYDER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH THE MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE CHANGED LATE NEXT WEEK FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. BOTH GFS/EC SHOW THE LOW FOR TUESDAY NOW AND HAVE IT MOVING
ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THE DAY SHIFT ADDED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THE MODELS
ARE A BIT DRIER THOUGH WITH PW 2/3 INCH OR LESS. THE FORCING IS
STRONG AND THERE IS A GOOD MOIST LAYER AT 600 MB SO THINK WE WILL
SEE SOMETHING AT LEAST.

BEHIND THE LOW A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR WED/THU
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR. HOWEVER, THE
MODELS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH OVERALL WITH ONLY A
WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR US, THIS CHANGE THESE TWO
DAYS REALLY DOESN`T IMPACT THE FORECAST MUCH. BY FRIDAY, BOTH GFS/EC
AND MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING THE LOW TOWARD THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. HAVE LEFT FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW, BUT IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE, THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES ACROSS. THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW WOULD ALSO LIMIT MUCH MOISTURE BEING PULLED
NORTH FROM THE MONSOON SO STORMS COULD BE DRIER AND A FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THIS IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW
AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER REMAINS THIS MORNING, BUT IT APPEARS
LESS DENSE THAN YESTERDAY. IT ALSO APPEARS MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA AND OREGON BY MID-MORNING. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A KSVE-GERLACH LINE
20-04Z WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH SIMILAR TIMING AND THREATS.
COVERAGE WILL AGAIN DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE IS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE, CLOUD BASES
WILL LOWER WITH SOME MTN OBSCURATION POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
SIERRA PEAKS. WALLMANN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LESS CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING THUS FAR SO IT APPEARS WE WILL HAVE
AN ACTIVE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST SOUTH OF A
PORTOLA TO RENO TO FALLON LINE. NORTH OF THIS LINE, MORE ISOLATED
STORMS ARE LIKELY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LASSEN COUNTY WHERE
A FEW MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ENOUGH CLEARING. STORMS MAY
BEGIN DRY SOUTH OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE BUT THEY WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO WET AS MOISTURE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES. NORTH,
DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE ONE AREA WE WILL WATCH WILL BE EASTERN PLUMAS AND LASSEN
COUNTIES WHERE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COVERAGE PROVIDED ENOUGH
CLEARING FOR HEATING THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING, PLAN ON
WAITING UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO DECIDE ON A RED FLAG FOR ZONES
271/278. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE RENO SOUNDING THIS MORNING AND
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IR IMAGERY CAN
BE A BIT DECEIVING AND IT IS HARD TO SEE JUST HOW MANY BREAKS THERE
ARE IN THE CLOUD DECK.

BY SUNDAY, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL ZONES FOR
WETTING RAINS FROM THE STORMS ALTHOUGH A FEW SMALL FIRE STARTS ARE
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE STORM CORES. MONDAY WE WILL SEE SLOW DRYING WITH A
FEW MORE STORMS POSSIBLE, BUT THESE LOOK TO BE WET AS WELL.

NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE TWO WAVES OF CONCERN. THE FIRST IS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST FINALLY MOVES THROUGH. ENOUGH
DRYING WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE BY THEN IN THE LOW LEVELS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MUCH DRIER. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND THIS WOULD ALSO HAVE LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
SYSTEMS ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT SO A LOT CAN CHANGE, BUT IF
CURRENT MODEL RUNS HOLD WE COULD HAVE SOME DRY LIGHTNING. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 011021
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
321 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS. LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THIS WEEKEND`S STORMS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR AVERAGE ON SUNDAY, WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TAPERING OFF BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
LOOKING AT THE INFRARED SATELLITE THIS MORNING, CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER REMAINS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-80. FARTHER SOUTH,
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IS WORKING INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN MINERAL
AND MONO COUNTIES WITH A SUBTLE UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM INYO
COUNTY. THE CLOUDS NORTH OF I-80 HAVE NOT PRODUCED MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS PER RADAR RETURNS AND ARE SPREADING OUT AS IF THEY
ARE CAPPED OFF. HOWEVER, WITH THE WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH
ENOUGH DEPTH COULD BE HAD FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
THIS MORNING. I ALSO LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THE
INCOMING FORCING, ALTHOUGH NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN NOTED SO FAR.

THIS AFTERNOON, CLEARING BEHIND THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
AND IN/NEAR THE SIERRA. THE PWAT IN RENO IS ALREADY AROUND 0.75"
AND SOUNDING MODEL PROGS SHOW PWATS IN THE 0.75" TO 0.9" RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MANY AREAS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS
NORTHERN WASHOE, NORTHEAST LASSEN AND NORTHERN PERSHING COUNTIES
WHERE PWATS MAY REMAIN CLOSER TO 0.5" THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THAT IN
MIND, ANY THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE TO PYRAMID LAKE TO
LOVELOCK LINE TODAY MAY PRODUCE MUCH LESS RAINFALL THAN AREAS
FARTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION, THE GUSTIEST OUTFLOW WINDS WILL TEND
TO BE UP NORTH (ESPECIALLY IF CLEARING DEVELOPS) WITH THE DRIEST
LOW LEVELS.

LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY, I HAVE LEFT THE RESIDUAL SHOWERS
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS SHOW SIGNS OF AN
UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS WAVE IS NOT
READILY VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT COULD BE HIDING OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING (PER CLOUDS IN THE INFRARED).

SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED,
DIURNALLY-LINKED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS COULD
CERTAINLY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PWATS BETWEEN 0.8" AND 1" FOR
MOST LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. UPPER
FLOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE, HOWEVER STORM INTERACTIONS
COULD MAKE FOR SLOWER OR TRAINING CONVECTION WITH A LOCALIZED
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IN STEEP TERRAIN OR ON BURN SCARS.

MONDAY WILL BRING IN DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A REDUCTION
IN STORM COVERAGE (BEST SHOT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50). SNYDER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH THE MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE CHANGED LATE NEXT WEEK FROM 24 HOURS
AGO. BOTH GFS/EC SHOW THE LOW FOR TUESDAY NOW AND HAVE IT MOVING
ACROSS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THE DAY SHIFT ADDED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THE MODELS
ARE A BIT DRIER THOUGH WITH PW 2/3 INCH OR LESS. THE FORCING IS
STRONG AND THERE IS A GOOD MOIST LAYER AT 600 MB SO THINK WE WILL
SEE SOMETHING AT LEAST.

BEHIND THE LOW A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR WED/THU
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR. HOWEVER, THE
MODELS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH OVERALL WITH ONLY A
WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR US, THIS CHANGE THESE TWO
DAYS REALLY DOESN`T IMPACT THE FORECAST MUCH. BY FRIDAY, BOTH GFS/EC
AND MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING THE LOW TOWARD THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. HAVE LEFT FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW, BUT IF THE MODELS
CONTINUE, THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES ACROSS. THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW WOULD ALSO LIMIT MUCH MOISTURE BEING PULLED
NORTH FROM THE MONSOON SO STORMS COULD BE DRIER AND A FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THIS IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW
AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER REMAINS THIS MORNING, BUT IT APPEARS
LESS DENSE THAN YESTERDAY. IT ALSO APPEARS MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER
WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA AND OREGON BY MID-MORNING. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A KSVE-GERLACH LINE
20-04Z WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH SIMILAR TIMING AND THREATS.
COVERAGE WILL AGAIN DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE IS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE, CLOUD BASES
WILL LOWER WITH SOME MTN OBSCURATION POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
SIERRA PEAKS. WALLMANN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LESS CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING THUS FAR SO IT APPEARS WE WILL HAVE
AN ACTIVE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST SOUTH OF A
PORTOLA TO RENO TO FALLON LINE. NORTH OF THIS LINE, MORE ISOLATED
STORMS ARE LIKELY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LASSEN COUNTY WHERE
A FEW MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ENOUGH CLEARING. STORMS MAY
BEGIN DRY SOUTH OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE BUT THEY WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO WET AS MOISTURE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES. NORTH,
DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE ONE AREA WE WILL WATCH WILL BE EASTERN PLUMAS AND LASSEN
COUNTIES WHERE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COVERAGE PROVIDED ENOUGH
CLEARING FOR HEATING THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING, PLAN ON
WAITING UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO DECIDE ON A RED FLAG FOR ZONES
271/278. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE RENO SOUNDING THIS MORNING AND
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IR IMAGERY CAN
BE A BIT DECEIVING AND IT IS HARD TO SEE JUST HOW MANY BREAKS THERE
ARE IN THE CLOUD DECK.

BY SUNDAY, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL ZONES FOR
WETTING RAINS FROM THE STORMS ALTHOUGH A FEW SMALL FIRE STARTS ARE
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE STORM CORES. MONDAY WE WILL SEE SLOW DRYING WITH A
FEW MORE STORMS POSSIBLE, BUT THESE LOOK TO BE WET AS WELL.

NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE TWO WAVES OF CONCERN. THE FIRST IS TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST FINALLY MOVES THROUGH. ENOUGH
DRYING WILL HAVE TAKEN PLACE BY THEN IN THE LOW LEVELS WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MUCH DRIER. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LOW IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND THIS WOULD ALSO HAVE LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BUT PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
SYSTEMS ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT SO A LOT CAN CHANGE, BUT IF
CURRENT MODEL RUNS HOLD WE COULD HAVE SOME DRY LIGHTNING. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 010338
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
838 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
RADAR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS SOME WEAK RETURNS OVER THE REGION WHICH
IS LIKELY VIRGA OR POSSIBLY THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT ANY
DEEPER CONVECTION THAT HAD DEVELOPED HAS DISSIPATED. LATEST NAM
STILL TRIES TO SHOW A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE ENCROACHING ON THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD KICK OFF A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS OR
VIRGA. FOR THIS REASON WILL A MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN
THE FORECAST FOR LATER TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMOVE MOST OF THAT
WORDING FOR THE LATE EVENING HOURS. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS. THE BEST OVERALL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING BECOMING THE MAIN THREATS.

SHORT TERM...

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, LIMITING THE INSTABILITY. WE ARE
STILL CALLING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS (MAINLY VIRGA) AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF THUNDER
CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST, PRODUCING LIGHTNING
AND LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE SIERRA WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 395.

SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT
KEEPING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS AROUND PAST MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
SOME CLEARING BY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL HELP FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
STEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO ADD TO THE
INSTABILITY WITH STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA SIERRA FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL BE
A HYBRID OF WET/DRY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
UNDERNEATH THE CORES AND DRY LIGHTNING POSSIBLE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY,
STORMS WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY WETTER BY THE EVENING. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION. SOME LIGHTNING MAY
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT OVERALL WE ARE MAINLY EXPECTING
WETTING RAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY EVEN A
MESOSCALE RAIN BAND WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN).

BY SUNDAY, LINGERING MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE
HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE AIR, IT WON`T TAKE VERY MUCH
HEATING TO GET CONVECTION GOING. IN FACT, THE LATEST MOS ONLY
SHOWS A HIGH TEMPERATURE IN RENO OF 81 DEGREES ON SUNDAY. WE HAVE
LOWERED THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE ACCORDINGLY, BUT MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED EVEN MORE. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE ON
SUNDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HOON

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE AS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE INCREASED FORECASTER CONFIDENCE TO
MODERATE FOR THE PERIOD. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA ON MONDAY, THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE
LINGERS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH
THE AFTERNOON ZEPHYR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, STORMS WILL LIKELY
INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE, WHICH MAY KEEP THE
TAHOE BASIN OUT OF ANY DEVELOPMENT.

A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
ROUND OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A FAVORABLE JET POSITION
AIDING IN LIFT. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS. WHILE INITIATION OVER THE SIERRA CREST IS POSSIBLE, STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN NEVADA AS THE AFTERNOON
ZEPHYR MATERIALIZES. WHILE PWATS BRIEFLY RISE TO AROUND 0.80", STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE FAST AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO
ABOVE 650 MB. THIS INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER TROUGH TO IMPACT THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK OR
NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE EC
AND WOULD LIKELY YIELD ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WHILE THE EC WOULD BE DRY. HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AROUND 10 PERCENT, BUT WILL NOT MENTION WEATHER AT THIS TIME. BOTH
SOLUTIONS WOULD ALLOW FOR ENHANCED AFTERNOON WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. DJ

AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIGS (BASES 120-150 AGL AND TOPS 180-
250 AGL) OVER THE EASTERN SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA HAVE LIMITED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SMALL POCKETS OF
CLEARING, BUT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY
TERMINALS AT 10 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE RADAR IS SHOWING LIGHT
SHOWERS, BUT MOST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN A TRACE OF RAIN AT
BEST. THESE MAINLY VIRGA SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE TURBULENT CONDITIONS
AND WIND SHEAR.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY WITH
LOWERING CIGS AND VIS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS, ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AND IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLOUD COVER SUNDAY WE MAY JUST
END UP WITH MORE SHOWERS AND LESS THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, IF THERE
IS CLEARING SUNDAY, HEAVY RAINING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. DJ

FIRE WEATHER...

DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MOSTLY VIRGA
FROM AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE ISOLATED
DUE TO A BLANKETING CLOUD LAYER THAT HAS INHIBITED SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. STILL, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY OUTFLOW IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE AS WELL AS DRY LIGHTNING.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HEATING
CEASES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, THESE CELLS WILL BE HYBRIDIZED STARTING DRY AND RAPIDLY
TRANSITIONING TO WET AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. LOCATIONS NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE TO GERLACH LINE CAN EXPECT A
COUPLE HOURS OF DRIER STORMS AS MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTH
OF THIS LINE. THESE LOCATIONS ALSO WILL BE IN AN AREA THAT WOULD
EXPERIENCE MORE RAPID FIRE DEVELOPMENT WITH HAINES VALUES AT A 5 OR
6. AS A VORTICITY LOBE MOVES THOUGH THE REGION, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS AS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
INCREASES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WET AND MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 SUGGESTING THAT THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW COULD BE
STRONGER APPROACHING SEVERE. RECOVERIES WILL BE MUCH BETTER SUNDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY REMAINING MOSTLY ABOVE 35% IN THE
SIERRA; WESTERN NEVADA SHOULD REMAIN AROUND AND ABOVE 20%. SOUTHWEST
FLOW BEGINS TO DRY THE REGION BY TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 010338
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
838 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
RADAR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS SOME WEAK RETURNS OVER THE REGION WHICH
IS LIKELY VIRGA OR POSSIBLY THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT ANY
DEEPER CONVECTION THAT HAD DEVELOPED HAS DISSIPATED. LATEST NAM
STILL TRIES TO SHOW A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE ENCROACHING ON THE
REGION LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD KICK OFF A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS OR
VIRGA. FOR THIS REASON WILL A MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN
THE FORECAST FOR LATER TONIGHT...BUT WILL REMOVE MOST OF THAT
WORDING FOR THE LATE EVENING HOURS. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS. THE BEST OVERALL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING BECOMING THE MAIN THREATS.

SHORT TERM...

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, LIMITING THE INSTABILITY. WE ARE
STILL CALLING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS (MAINLY VIRGA) AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF THUNDER
CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST, PRODUCING LIGHTNING
AND LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE SIERRA WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 395.

SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT
KEEPING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS AROUND PAST MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
SOME CLEARING BY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL HELP FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
STEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO ADD TO THE
INSTABILITY WITH STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA SIERRA FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL BE
A HYBRID OF WET/DRY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
UNDERNEATH THE CORES AND DRY LIGHTNING POSSIBLE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY,
STORMS WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY WETTER BY THE EVENING. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION. SOME LIGHTNING MAY
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT OVERALL WE ARE MAINLY EXPECTING
WETTING RAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY EVEN A
MESOSCALE RAIN BAND WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN).

BY SUNDAY, LINGERING MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE
HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE AIR, IT WON`T TAKE VERY MUCH
HEATING TO GET CONVECTION GOING. IN FACT, THE LATEST MOS ONLY
SHOWS A HIGH TEMPERATURE IN RENO OF 81 DEGREES ON SUNDAY. WE HAVE
LOWERED THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE ACCORDINGLY, BUT MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED EVEN MORE. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE ON
SUNDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HOON

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE AS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE INCREASED FORECASTER CONFIDENCE TO
MODERATE FOR THE PERIOD. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA ON MONDAY, THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE
LINGERS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH
THE AFTERNOON ZEPHYR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, STORMS WILL LIKELY
INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE, WHICH MAY KEEP THE
TAHOE BASIN OUT OF ANY DEVELOPMENT.

A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
ROUND OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A FAVORABLE JET POSITION
AIDING IN LIFT. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS. WHILE INITIATION OVER THE SIERRA CREST IS POSSIBLE, STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN NEVADA AS THE AFTERNOON
ZEPHYR MATERIALIZES. WHILE PWATS BRIEFLY RISE TO AROUND 0.80", STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE FAST AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO
ABOVE 650 MB. THIS INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER TROUGH TO IMPACT THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK OR
NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE EC
AND WOULD LIKELY YIELD ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WHILE THE EC WOULD BE DRY. HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AROUND 10 PERCENT, BUT WILL NOT MENTION WEATHER AT THIS TIME. BOTH
SOLUTIONS WOULD ALLOW FOR ENHANCED AFTERNOON WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. DJ

AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIGS (BASES 120-150 AGL AND TOPS 180-
250 AGL) OVER THE EASTERN SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA HAVE LIMITED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SMALL POCKETS OF
CLEARING, BUT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY
TERMINALS AT 10 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE RADAR IS SHOWING LIGHT
SHOWERS, BUT MOST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN A TRACE OF RAIN AT
BEST. THESE MAINLY VIRGA SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE TURBULENT CONDITIONS
AND WIND SHEAR.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY WITH
LOWERING CIGS AND VIS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS, ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AND IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLOUD COVER SUNDAY WE MAY JUST
END UP WITH MORE SHOWERS AND LESS THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, IF THERE
IS CLEARING SUNDAY, HEAVY RAINING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. DJ

FIRE WEATHER...

DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MOSTLY VIRGA
FROM AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE ISOLATED
DUE TO A BLANKETING CLOUD LAYER THAT HAS INHIBITED SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. STILL, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY OUTFLOW IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE AS WELL AS DRY LIGHTNING.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HEATING
CEASES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, THESE CELLS WILL BE HYBRIDIZED STARTING DRY AND RAPIDLY
TRANSITIONING TO WET AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. LOCATIONS NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE TO GERLACH LINE CAN EXPECT A
COUPLE HOURS OF DRIER STORMS AS MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTH
OF THIS LINE. THESE LOCATIONS ALSO WILL BE IN AN AREA THAT WOULD
EXPERIENCE MORE RAPID FIRE DEVELOPMENT WITH HAINES VALUES AT A 5 OR
6. AS A VORTICITY LOBE MOVES THOUGH THE REGION, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS AS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
INCREASES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WET AND MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 SUGGESTING THAT THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW COULD BE
STRONGER APPROACHING SEVERE. RECOVERIES WILL BE MUCH BETTER SUNDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY REMAINING MOSTLY ABOVE 35% IN THE
SIERRA; WESTERN NEVADA SHOULD REMAIN AROUND AND ABOVE 20%. SOUTHWEST
FLOW BEGINS TO DRY THE REGION BY TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 312151
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
251 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS. THE BEST OVERALL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING BECOMING THE MAIN THREATS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, LIMITING THE INSTABILITY. WE ARE
STILL CALLING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS (MAINLY VIRGA) AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF THUNDER
CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST, PRODUCING LIGHTNING
AND LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE SIERRA WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 395.

SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT
KEEPING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS AROUND PAST MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
SOME CLEARING BY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL HELP FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
STEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO ADD TO THE
INSTABILITY WITH STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA SIERRA FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL BE
A HYBRID OF WET/DRY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
UNDERNEATH THE CORES AND DRY LIGHTNING POSSIBLE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY,
STORMS WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY WETTER BY THE EVENING. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION. SOME LIGHTNING MAY
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT OVERALL WE ARE MAINLY EXPECTING
WETTING RAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY EVEN A
MESOSCALE RAIN BAND WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN).

BY SUNDAY, LINGERING MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE
HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE AIR, IT WON`T TAKE VERY MUCH
HEATING TO GET CONVECTION GOING. IN FACT, THE LATEST MOS ONLY
SHOWS A HIGH TEMPERATURE IN RENO OF 81 DEGREES ON SUNDAY. WE HAVE
LOWERED THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE ACCORDINGLY, BUT MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED EVEN MORE. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE ON
SUNDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HOON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE AS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE INCREASED FORECASTER CONFIDENCE TO
MODERATE FOR THE PERIOD. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA ON MONDAY, THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE
LINGERS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH
THE AFTERNOON ZEPHYR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, STORMS WILL LIKELY
INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE, WHICH MAY KEEP THE
TAHOE BASIN OUT OF ANY DEVELOPMENT.

A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
ROUND OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A FAVORABLE JET POSITION
AIDING IN LIFT. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS. WHILE INITIATION OVER THE SIERRA CREST IS POSSIBLE, STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN NEVADA AS THE AFTERNOON
ZEPHYR MATERIALIZES. WHILE PWATS BRIEFLY RISE TO AROUND 0.80", STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE FAST AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO
ABOVE 650 MB. THIS INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER TROUGH TO IMPACT THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK OR
NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE EC
AND WOULD LIKELY YIELD ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WHILE THE EC WOULD BE DRY. HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AROUND 10 PERCENT, BUT WILL NOT MENTION WEATHER AT THIS TIME. BOTH
SOLUTIONS WOULD ALLOW FOR ENHANCED AFTERNOON WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIGS (BASES 120-150 AGL AND TOPS 180-
250 AGL) OVER THE EASTERN SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA HAVE LIMITED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SMALL POCKETS OF
CLEARING, BUT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY
TERMINALS AT 10 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE RADAR IS SHOWING LIGHT
SHOWERS, BUT MOST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN A TRACE OF RAIN AT
BEST. THESE MAINLY VIRGA SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE TURBULENT CONDITIONS
AND WIND SHEAR.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY WITH
LOWERING CIGS AND VIS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS, ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AND IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLOUD COVER SUNDAY WE MAY JUST
END UP WITH MORE SHOWERS AND LESS THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, IF THERE
IS CLEARING SUNDAY, HEAVY RAINING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. DJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MOSTLY VIRGA
FROM AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE ISOLATED
DUE TO A BLANKETING CLOUD LAYER THAT HAS INHIBITED SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. STILL, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY OUTFLOW IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE AS WELL AS DRY LIGHTNING.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HEATING
CEASES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, THESE CELLS WILL BE HYBRIDIZED STARTING DRY AND RAPIDLY
TRANSITIONING TO WET AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. LOCATIONS NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE TO GERLACH LINE CAN EXPECT A
COUPLE HOURS OF DRIER STORMS AS MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTH
OF THIS LINE. THESE LOCATIONS ALSO WILL BE IN AN AREA THAT WOULD
EXPERIENCE MORE RAPID FIRE DEVELOPMENT WITH HAINES VALUES AT A 5 OR
6. AS A VORTICITY LOBE MOVES THOUGH THE REGION, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS AS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
INCREASES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WET AND MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 SUGGESTING THAT THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW COULD BE
STRONGER APPROACHING SEVERE. RECOVERIES WILL BE MUCH BETTER SUNDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY REMAINING MOSTLY ABOVE 35% IN THE
SIERRA; WESTERN NEVADA SHOULD REMAIN AROUND AND ABOVE 20%. SOUTHWEST
FLOW BEGINS TO DRY THE REGION BY TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 312151
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
251 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS. THE BEST OVERALL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING BECOMING THE MAIN THREATS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, LIMITING THE INSTABILITY. WE ARE
STILL CALLING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS (MAINLY VIRGA) AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF THUNDER
CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST, PRODUCING LIGHTNING
AND LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE SIERRA WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 395.

SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT
KEEPING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS AROUND PAST MIDNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
SOME CLEARING BY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH WILL HELP FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
STEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO ADD TO THE
INSTABILITY WITH STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA SIERRA FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL BE
A HYBRID OF WET/DRY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
UNDERNEATH THE CORES AND DRY LIGHTNING POSSIBLE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY,
STORMS WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY WETTER BY THE EVENING. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO WESTERN NEVADA SATURDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION. SOME LIGHTNING MAY
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT OVERALL WE ARE MAINLY EXPECTING
WETTING RAINS WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY (POSSIBLY EVEN A
MESOSCALE RAIN BAND WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN).

BY SUNDAY, LINGERING MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE
HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE AIR, IT WON`T TAKE VERY MUCH
HEATING TO GET CONVECTION GOING. IN FACT, THE LATEST MOS ONLY
SHOWS A HIGH TEMPERATURE IN RENO OF 81 DEGREES ON SUNDAY. WE HAVE
LOWERED THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE ACCORDINGLY, BUT MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED EVEN MORE. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE ON
SUNDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HOON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE AS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE INCREASED FORECASTER CONFIDENCE TO
MODERATE FOR THE PERIOD. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO PUSH INTO
THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA ON MONDAY, THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE
LINGERS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH
THE AFTERNOON ZEPHYR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, STORMS WILL LIKELY
INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE, WHICH MAY KEEP THE
TAHOE BASIN OUT OF ANY DEVELOPMENT.

A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
ROUND OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A FAVORABLE JET POSITION
AIDING IN LIFT. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS. WHILE INITIATION OVER THE SIERRA CREST IS POSSIBLE, STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN NEVADA AS THE AFTERNOON
ZEPHYR MATERIALIZES. WHILE PWATS BRIEFLY RISE TO AROUND 0.80", STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE FAST AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO
ABOVE 650 MB. THIS INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER TROUGH TO IMPACT THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK OR
NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE EC
AND WOULD LIKELY YIELD ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WHILE THE EC WOULD BE DRY. HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AROUND 10 PERCENT, BUT WILL NOT MENTION WEATHER AT THIS TIME. BOTH
SOLUTIONS WOULD ALLOW FOR ENHANCED AFTERNOON WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIGS (BASES 120-150 AGL AND TOPS 180-
250 AGL) OVER THE EASTERN SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA HAVE LIMITED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SMALL POCKETS OF
CLEARING, BUT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY
TERMINALS AT 10 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE RADAR IS SHOWING LIGHT
SHOWERS, BUT MOST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN A TRACE OF RAIN AT
BEST. THESE MAINLY VIRGA SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE TURBULENT CONDITIONS
AND WIND SHEAR.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE SATURDAY WITH
LOWERING CIGS AND VIS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS, ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AND IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLOUD COVER SUNDAY WE MAY JUST
END UP WITH MORE SHOWERS AND LESS THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, IF THERE
IS CLEARING SUNDAY, HEAVY RAINING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. DJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MOSTLY VIRGA
FROM AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE ISOLATED
DUE TO A BLANKETING CLOUD LAYER THAT HAS INHIBITED SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. STILL, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY OUTFLOW IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE AS WELL AS DRY LIGHTNING.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HEATING
CEASES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, THESE CELLS WILL BE HYBRIDIZED STARTING DRY AND RAPIDLY
TRANSITIONING TO WET AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. LOCATIONS NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE TO GERLACH LINE CAN EXPECT A
COUPLE HOURS OF DRIER STORMS AS MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTH
OF THIS LINE. THESE LOCATIONS ALSO WILL BE IN AN AREA THAT WOULD
EXPERIENCE MORE RAPID FIRE DEVELOPMENT WITH HAINES VALUES AT A 5 OR
6. AS A VORTICITY LOBE MOVES THOUGH THE REGION, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUNDAY WILL BRING MUCH WETTER CONDITIONS AS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
INCREASES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WET AND MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE SUNDAY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 SUGGESTING THAT THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW COULD BE
STRONGER APPROACHING SEVERE. RECOVERIES WILL BE MUCH BETTER SUNDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY REMAINING MOSTLY ABOVE 35% IN THE
SIERRA; WESTERN NEVADA SHOULD REMAIN AROUND AND ABOVE 20%. SOUTHWEST
FLOW BEGINS TO DRY THE REGION BY TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 311707
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1007 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO DECREASE COVERAGE OF EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN MONO COUNTY TO ISOLATED, INSTEAD OF
SCATTERED. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP INSTABILITY MARGINALIZED
THROUGH THE DAY, RESULTING IN LESS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. STILL,
ANY STORMS THAT DO HAPPEN TO FORM WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A VERY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER, SO LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERALL WITH VIRGA
SHOWERS COMMON TODAY. HOON

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN
WESTERN NEVADA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS POSSIBLE. THE BEST OVERALL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND, WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING BECOMING THE MAIN THREATS.

SHORT TERM...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK
IMPULSE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS INYO AND NYE COUNTIES IS BEING
PICKED UP BY THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE, WHICH SPREAD SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS MONO, ALPINE AND SOUTHERN MINERAL COUNTIES DURING
THE EARLY AND MID MORNING.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, FAVORED AREAS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR THE SIERRA FROM MONO COUNTY
NORTHWARD TO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY, AND IN WESTERN NV SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. ELSEWHERE, THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADING ACROSS
WESTERN NV AND NORTHEAST CA DURING THE DAY COMBINED WITH DRY EAST
FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE MAY PRODUCE CONDITIONS TOO STABLE FOR
FORMING OR SUSTAINING CONVECTION THAT MOVES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
HOWEVER, OUTFLOWS FROM CELLS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE SIERRA COULD
PUSH ACROSS WESTERN NV AND BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF STRONGER WIND
GUSTS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF CELLS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTHWARD. WHILE CLOUD COVER COULD STILL DISRUPT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, THERE APPEARS TO BE A LARGER WINDOW OF
HEATING ON SATURDAY, ALONG WITH RISING DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO
MORE INSTABILITY. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ALSO
PROJECTED TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE SIERRA WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NV. THESE FEATURES WOULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FORCING AND INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WHICH MAY HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ARE FAVORING SOME OVERNIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE
TAHOE BASIN AND THE RENO-CARSON CITY VICINITY, ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
VARY SINCE THE TRACK OF THESE DISTURBANCES ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE
WITH UPCOMING MODEL RUNS.

FOR SUNDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROBABLE
WITH VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS REMAINING. IF FULL
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED, THEN SOME STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
WOULD DEVELOP. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE TOO MUCH LEFTOVER CLOUD
COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHT`S ACTIVITY WHICH LIMITS HEATING AND
CELL STRENGTH ON SUNDAY. THIS LIMITING FACTOR IS MORE PRONOUNCED
ON THE GFS WHICH IS HOLDING MAX TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID-UPPER 80S
ACROSS WESTERN NV. WE DIDN`T MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT
SUNDAY FORECAST WITH CHANCE POPS KEPT OVER MOST AREAS, SINCE
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF WHERE CONVECTION
EVENTUALLY OCCURS. MJD

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE OVERALL IDEA FOR NEXT WEEK`S FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED, BUT DID
MAKE SOME CHANGES TO THE DETAILS. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
LEFT OVER MONDAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, PUSHED
THE BEST CHANCES TO MONO/MINERAL WHERE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
WEAKEST. WHILE IT WON`T DRY OUT QUICKLY, THE ZEPHYR ACTS TO LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEHIND ITS LEADING EDGE. I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE TAHOE BASIN IS COMPLETELY DRY AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AND POSSIBLY THE SIERRA FRONT OUTSIDE THE PINE NUTS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. ONE
THING TO NOTE IS THAT THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
TUESDAY THAT COULD BACK THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OVER MONO/MINERAL AND
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THERE. THE EC IS SHOWING THIS IDEA,
WHILE THE GFS IS DRY. WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY FOR NOW UNTIL THERE IS
MORE CONSISTENCY.

AS FOR THE WINDS, THEY LOOK TO BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR MIDSUMMER WITH
AN AFTERNOON/EVENING ZEPHYR EACH DAY AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE IF NOT A LITTLE
BELOW. WALLMANN

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH TODAY WITH
BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SIERRA. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE OVER MONO
COUNTY INCLUDING KMMH, BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING. MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS 40+ KTS AND
ASSOCIATED WIND SHEAR.

MORE CLOUDS TONIGHT BEFORE A POTENTIAL REPEAT ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE
INCREASES, BUT THE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
WALLMANN

FIRE WEATHER...

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LIGHTNING TODAY WITH STORMS AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE. CLOUD COVER IS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE THIS
MORNING SO COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED. STORMS WILL
START DRY AND BECOME WET/DRY HYBRIDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AS WE
MOVE INTO SATURDAY, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND EXPECT
HYBRID STORMS THAT DAY. GIVEN THE DRYNESS AND HEAT PRECEDING, IT
COULD BE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE DAY. HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER LOOKS LIKE
IT MIGHT BE EXTENSIVE THAT WOULD REDUCE THE INSTABILITY AND
COVERAGE OF STORMS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WILL NOT ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR DRY LIGHTNING.

AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY, MORE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND STORMS
WILL BE SLOW MOVING. AT THAT POINT, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGER
CONCERN ALTHOUGH A FEW STARTS OUTSIDE THE CORES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE HIGHER TOO WITH MINIMUMS LIKELY TO
REMAIN ABOVE 20% IN WESTERN NV AND 30% IN THE SIERRA. DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY. WINDS
NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE TYPICAL ZEPHYRS WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 311707
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1007 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO DECREASE COVERAGE OF EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN MONO COUNTY TO ISOLATED, INSTEAD OF
SCATTERED. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP INSTABILITY MARGINALIZED
THROUGH THE DAY, RESULTING IN LESS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. STILL,
ANY STORMS THAT DO HAPPEN TO FORM WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A VERY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER, SO LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERALL WITH VIRGA
SHOWERS COMMON TODAY. HOON

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN
WESTERN NEVADA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS POSSIBLE. THE BEST OVERALL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND, WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING BECOMING THE MAIN THREATS.

SHORT TERM...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK
IMPULSE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS INYO AND NYE COUNTIES IS BEING
PICKED UP BY THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE, WHICH SPREAD SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS MONO, ALPINE AND SOUTHERN MINERAL COUNTIES DURING
THE EARLY AND MID MORNING.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, FAVORED AREAS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR THE SIERRA FROM MONO COUNTY
NORTHWARD TO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY, AND IN WESTERN NV SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. ELSEWHERE, THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADING ACROSS
WESTERN NV AND NORTHEAST CA DURING THE DAY COMBINED WITH DRY EAST
FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE MAY PRODUCE CONDITIONS TOO STABLE FOR
FORMING OR SUSTAINING CONVECTION THAT MOVES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
HOWEVER, OUTFLOWS FROM CELLS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE SIERRA COULD
PUSH ACROSS WESTERN NV AND BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF STRONGER WIND
GUSTS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF CELLS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTHWARD. WHILE CLOUD COVER COULD STILL DISRUPT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, THERE APPEARS TO BE A LARGER WINDOW OF
HEATING ON SATURDAY, ALONG WITH RISING DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO
MORE INSTABILITY. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ALSO
PROJECTED TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE SIERRA WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NV. THESE FEATURES WOULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FORCING AND INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WHICH MAY HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ARE FAVORING SOME OVERNIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE
TAHOE BASIN AND THE RENO-CARSON CITY VICINITY, ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
VARY SINCE THE TRACK OF THESE DISTURBANCES ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE
WITH UPCOMING MODEL RUNS.

FOR SUNDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROBABLE
WITH VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS REMAINING. IF FULL
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED, THEN SOME STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
WOULD DEVELOP. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE TOO MUCH LEFTOVER CLOUD
COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHT`S ACTIVITY WHICH LIMITS HEATING AND
CELL STRENGTH ON SUNDAY. THIS LIMITING FACTOR IS MORE PRONOUNCED
ON THE GFS WHICH IS HOLDING MAX TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID-UPPER 80S
ACROSS WESTERN NV. WE DIDN`T MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT
SUNDAY FORECAST WITH CHANCE POPS KEPT OVER MOST AREAS, SINCE
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF WHERE CONVECTION
EVENTUALLY OCCURS. MJD

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE OVERALL IDEA FOR NEXT WEEK`S FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED, BUT DID
MAKE SOME CHANGES TO THE DETAILS. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
LEFT OVER MONDAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, PUSHED
THE BEST CHANCES TO MONO/MINERAL WHERE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
WEAKEST. WHILE IT WON`T DRY OUT QUICKLY, THE ZEPHYR ACTS TO LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEHIND ITS LEADING EDGE. I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE TAHOE BASIN IS COMPLETELY DRY AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AND POSSIBLY THE SIERRA FRONT OUTSIDE THE PINE NUTS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. ONE
THING TO NOTE IS THAT THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
TUESDAY THAT COULD BACK THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OVER MONO/MINERAL AND
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THERE. THE EC IS SHOWING THIS IDEA,
WHILE THE GFS IS DRY. WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY FOR NOW UNTIL THERE IS
MORE CONSISTENCY.

AS FOR THE WINDS, THEY LOOK TO BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR MIDSUMMER WITH
AN AFTERNOON/EVENING ZEPHYR EACH DAY AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE IF NOT A LITTLE
BELOW. WALLMANN

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH TODAY WITH
BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SIERRA. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE OVER MONO
COUNTY INCLUDING KMMH, BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING. MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS 40+ KTS AND
ASSOCIATED WIND SHEAR.

MORE CLOUDS TONIGHT BEFORE A POTENTIAL REPEAT ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE
INCREASES, BUT THE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
WALLMANN

FIRE WEATHER...

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LIGHTNING TODAY WITH STORMS AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE. CLOUD COVER IS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE THIS
MORNING SO COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED. STORMS WILL
START DRY AND BECOME WET/DRY HYBRIDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AS WE
MOVE INTO SATURDAY, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND EXPECT
HYBRID STORMS THAT DAY. GIVEN THE DRYNESS AND HEAT PRECEDING, IT
COULD BE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE DAY. HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER LOOKS LIKE
IT MIGHT BE EXTENSIVE THAT WOULD REDUCE THE INSTABILITY AND
COVERAGE OF STORMS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WILL NOT ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR DRY LIGHTNING.

AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY, MORE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND STORMS
WILL BE SLOW MOVING. AT THAT POINT, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGER
CONCERN ALTHOUGH A FEW STARTS OUTSIDE THE CORES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE HIGHER TOO WITH MINIMUMS LIKELY TO
REMAIN ABOVE 20% IN WESTERN NV AND 30% IN THE SIERRA. DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY. WINDS
NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE TYPICAL ZEPHYRS WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 311004
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
304 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN
WESTERN NEVADA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS POSSIBLE. THE BEST OVERALL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND, WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING BECOMING THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK
IMPULSE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS INYO AND NYE COUNTIES IS BEING
PICKED UP BY THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE, WHICH SPREAD SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS MONO, ALPINE AND SOUTHERN MINERAL COUNTIES DURING
THE EARLY AND MID MORNING.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, FAVORED AREAS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR THE SIERRA FROM MONO COUNTY
NORTHWARD TO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY, AND IN WESTERN NV SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. ELSEWHERE, THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADING ACROSS
WESTERN NV AND NORTHEAST CA DURING THE DAY COMBINED WITH DRY EAST
FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE MAY PRODUCE CONDITIONS TOO STABLE FOR
FORMING OR SUSTAINING CONVECTION THAT MOVES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
HOWEVER, OUTFLOWS FROM CELLS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE SIERRA COULD
PUSH ACROSS WESTERN NV AND BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF STRONGER WIND
GUSTS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF CELLS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTHWARD. WHILE CLOUD COVER COULD STILL DISRUPT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, THERE APPEARS TO BE A LARGER WINDOW OF
HEATING ON SATURDAY, ALONG WITH RISING DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO
MORE INSTABILITY. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ALSO
PROJECTED TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE SIERRA WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NV. THESE FEATURES WOULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FORCING AND INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WHICH MAY HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ARE FAVORING SOME OVERNIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE
TAHOE BASIN AND THE RENO-CARSON CITY VICINITY, ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
VARY SINCE THE TRACK OF THESE DISTURBANCES ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE
WITH UPCOMING MODEL RUNS.

FOR SUNDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROBABLE
WITH VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS REMAINING. IF FULL
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED, THEN SOME STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
WOULD DEVELOP. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE TOO MUCH LEFTOVER CLOUD
COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHT`S ACTIVITY WHICH LIMITS HEATING AND
CELL STRENGTH ON SUNDAY. THIS LIMITING FACTOR IS MORE PRONOUNCED
ON THE GFS WHICH IS HOLDING MAX TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID-UPPER 80S
ACROSS WESTERN NV. WE DIDN`T MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT
SUNDAY FORECAST WITH CHANCE POPS KEPT OVER MOST AREAS, SINCE
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF WHERE CONVECTION
EVENTUALLY OCCURS. MJD

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE OVERALL IDEA FOR NEXT WEEK`S FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED, BUT DID
MAKE SOME CHANGES TO THE DETAILS. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
LEFT OVER MONDAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, PUSHED
THE BEST CHANCES TO MONO/MINERAL WHERE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
WEAKEST. WHILE IT WON`T DRY OUT QUICKLY, THE ZEPHYR ACTS TO LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEHIND ITS LEADING EDGE. I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE TAHOE BASIN IS COMPLETELY DRY AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AND POSSIBLY THE SIERRA FRONT OUTSIDE THE PINE NUTS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. ONE
THING TO NOTE IS THAT THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
TUESDAY THAT COULD BACK THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OVER MONO/MINERAL AND
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THERE. THE EC IS SHOWING THIS IDEA,
WHILE THE GFS IS DRY. WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY FOR NOW UNTIL THERE IS
MORE CONSISTENCY.

AS FOR THE WINDS, THEY LOOK TO BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR MIDSUMMER WITH
AN AFTERNOON/EVENING ZEPHYR EACH DAY AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE IF NOT A LITTLE
BELOW. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH TODAY WITH
BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SIERRA. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE OVER MONO
COUNTY INCLUDING KMMH, BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING. MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS 40+ KTS AND
ASSOCIATED WIND SHEAR.

MORE CLOUDS TONIGHT BEFORE A POTENTIAL REPEAT ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE
INCREASES, BUT THE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
WALLMANN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LIGHTNING TODAY WITH STORMS AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE. CLOUD COVER IS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE THIS
MORNING SO COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED. STORMS WILL
START DRY AND BECOME WET/DRY HYBRIDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AS WE
MOVE INTO SATURDAY, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND EXPECT
HYBRID STORMS THAT DAY. GIVEN THE DRYNESS AND HEAT PRECEDING, IT
COULD BE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE DAY. HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER LOOKS LIKE
IT MIGHT BE EXTENSIVE THAT WOULD REDUCE THE INSTABILITY AND
COVERAGE OF STORMS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WILL NOT ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR DRY LIGHTNING.

AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY, MORE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND STORMS
WILL BE SLOW MOVING. AT THAT POINT, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGER
CONCERN ALTHOUGH A FEW STARTS OUTSIDE THE CORES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE HIGHER TOO WITH MINIMUMS LIKELY TO
REMAIN ABOVE 20% IN WESTERN NV AND 30% IN THE SIERRA. DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY. WINDS
NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE TYPICAL ZEPHYRS WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 311004
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
304 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN
WESTERN NEVADA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS POSSIBLE. THE BEST OVERALL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND, WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING BECOMING THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK
IMPULSE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS INYO AND NYE COUNTIES IS BEING
PICKED UP BY THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE, WHICH SPREAD SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS MONO, ALPINE AND SOUTHERN MINERAL COUNTIES DURING
THE EARLY AND MID MORNING.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, FAVORED AREAS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR THE SIERRA FROM MONO COUNTY
NORTHWARD TO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY, AND IN WESTERN NV SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. ELSEWHERE, THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADING ACROSS
WESTERN NV AND NORTHEAST CA DURING THE DAY COMBINED WITH DRY EAST
FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE MAY PRODUCE CONDITIONS TOO STABLE FOR
FORMING OR SUSTAINING CONVECTION THAT MOVES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
HOWEVER, OUTFLOWS FROM CELLS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE SIERRA COULD
PUSH ACROSS WESTERN NV AND BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF STRONGER WIND
GUSTS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF CELLS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTHWARD. WHILE CLOUD COVER COULD STILL DISRUPT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, THERE APPEARS TO BE A LARGER WINDOW OF
HEATING ON SATURDAY, ALONG WITH RISING DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO
MORE INSTABILITY. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ALSO
PROJECTED TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE SIERRA WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NV. THESE FEATURES WOULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FORCING AND INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WHICH MAY HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ARE FAVORING SOME OVERNIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE
TAHOE BASIN AND THE RENO-CARSON CITY VICINITY, ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
VARY SINCE THE TRACK OF THESE DISTURBANCES ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE
WITH UPCOMING MODEL RUNS.

FOR SUNDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROBABLE
WITH VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS REMAINING. IF FULL
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED, THEN SOME STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
WOULD DEVELOP. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE TOO MUCH LEFTOVER CLOUD
COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHT`S ACTIVITY WHICH LIMITS HEATING AND
CELL STRENGTH ON SUNDAY. THIS LIMITING FACTOR IS MORE PRONOUNCED
ON THE GFS WHICH IS HOLDING MAX TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID-UPPER 80S
ACROSS WESTERN NV. WE DIDN`T MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT
SUNDAY FORECAST WITH CHANCE POPS KEPT OVER MOST AREAS, SINCE
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF WHERE CONVECTION
EVENTUALLY OCCURS. MJD

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE OVERALL IDEA FOR NEXT WEEK`S FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED, BUT DID
MAKE SOME CHANGES TO THE DETAILS. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
LEFT OVER MONDAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, PUSHED
THE BEST CHANCES TO MONO/MINERAL WHERE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
WEAKEST. WHILE IT WON`T DRY OUT QUICKLY, THE ZEPHYR ACTS TO LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEHIND ITS LEADING EDGE. I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE TAHOE BASIN IS COMPLETELY DRY AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AND POSSIBLY THE SIERRA FRONT OUTSIDE THE PINE NUTS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. ONE
THING TO NOTE IS THAT THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
TUESDAY THAT COULD BACK THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OVER MONO/MINERAL AND
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THERE. THE EC IS SHOWING THIS IDEA,
WHILE THE GFS IS DRY. WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY FOR NOW UNTIL THERE IS
MORE CONSISTENCY.

AS FOR THE WINDS, THEY LOOK TO BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR MIDSUMMER WITH
AN AFTERNOON/EVENING ZEPHYR EACH DAY AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE IF NOT A LITTLE
BELOW. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH TODAY WITH
BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SIERRA. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE OVER MONO
COUNTY INCLUDING KMMH, BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING. MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS 40+ KTS AND
ASSOCIATED WIND SHEAR.

MORE CLOUDS TONIGHT BEFORE A POTENTIAL REPEAT ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE
INCREASES, BUT THE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
WALLMANN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LIGHTNING TODAY WITH STORMS AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE. CLOUD COVER IS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE THIS
MORNING SO COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED. STORMS WILL
START DRY AND BECOME WET/DRY HYBRIDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AS WE
MOVE INTO SATURDAY, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND EXPECT
HYBRID STORMS THAT DAY. GIVEN THE DRYNESS AND HEAT PRECEDING, IT
COULD BE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE DAY. HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER LOOKS LIKE
IT MIGHT BE EXTENSIVE THAT WOULD REDUCE THE INSTABILITY AND
COVERAGE OF STORMS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WILL NOT ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR DRY LIGHTNING.

AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY, MORE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND STORMS
WILL BE SLOW MOVING. AT THAT POINT, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGER
CONCERN ALTHOUGH A FEW STARTS OUTSIDE THE CORES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE HIGHER TOO WITH MINIMUMS LIKELY TO
REMAIN ABOVE 20% IN WESTERN NV AND 30% IN THE SIERRA. DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY. WINDS
NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE TYPICAL ZEPHYRS WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 311004
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
304 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA AND IN
WESTERN NEVADA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE STARTS POSSIBLE. THE BEST OVERALL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND, WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING BECOMING THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK
IMPULSE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS INYO AND NYE COUNTIES IS BEING
PICKED UP BY THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE, WHICH SPREAD SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS MONO, ALPINE AND SOUTHERN MINERAL COUNTIES DURING
THE EARLY AND MID MORNING.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, FAVORED AREAS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR THE SIERRA FROM MONO COUNTY
NORTHWARD TO WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY, AND IN WESTERN NV SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. ELSEWHERE, THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADING ACROSS
WESTERN NV AND NORTHEAST CA DURING THE DAY COMBINED WITH DRY EAST
FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE MAY PRODUCE CONDITIONS TOO STABLE FOR
FORMING OR SUSTAINING CONVECTION THAT MOVES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
HOWEVER, OUTFLOWS FROM CELLS THAT DEVELOP NEAR THE SIERRA COULD
PUSH ACROSS WESTERN NV AND BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF STRONGER WIND
GUSTS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF CELLS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTHWARD. WHILE CLOUD COVER COULD STILL DISRUPT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, THERE APPEARS TO BE A LARGER WINDOW OF
HEATING ON SATURDAY, ALONG WITH RISING DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO
MORE INSTABILITY. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ALSO
PROJECTED TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE SIERRA WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NV. THESE FEATURES WOULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FORCING AND INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WHICH MAY HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ARE FAVORING SOME OVERNIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE
TAHOE BASIN AND THE RENO-CARSON CITY VICINITY, ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
VARY SINCE THE TRACK OF THESE DISTURBANCES ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE
WITH UPCOMING MODEL RUNS.

FOR SUNDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS PROBABLE
WITH VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS REMAINING. IF FULL
INSTABILITY IS REALIZED, THEN SOME STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
WOULD DEVELOP. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE TOO MUCH LEFTOVER CLOUD
COVER FROM SATURDAY NIGHT`S ACTIVITY WHICH LIMITS HEATING AND
CELL STRENGTH ON SUNDAY. THIS LIMITING FACTOR IS MORE PRONOUNCED
ON THE GFS WHICH IS HOLDING MAX TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID-UPPER 80S
ACROSS WESTERN NV. WE DIDN`T MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT
SUNDAY FORECAST WITH CHANCE POPS KEPT OVER MOST AREAS, SINCE
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF WHERE CONVECTION
EVENTUALLY OCCURS. MJD

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE OVERALL IDEA FOR NEXT WEEK`S FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED, BUT DID
MAKE SOME CHANGES TO THE DETAILS. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE WILL BE
LEFT OVER MONDAY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, PUSHED
THE BEST CHANCES TO MONO/MINERAL WHERE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
WEAKEST. WHILE IT WON`T DRY OUT QUICKLY, THE ZEPHYR ACTS TO LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEHIND ITS LEADING EDGE. I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE TAHOE BASIN IS COMPLETELY DRY AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AND POSSIBLY THE SIERRA FRONT OUTSIDE THE PINE NUTS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. ONE
THING TO NOTE IS THAT THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FOR
TUESDAY THAT COULD BACK THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OVER MONO/MINERAL AND
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THERE. THE EC IS SHOWING THIS IDEA,
WHILE THE GFS IS DRY. WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY FOR NOW UNTIL THERE IS
MORE CONSISTENCY.

AS FOR THE WINDS, THEY LOOK TO BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR MIDSUMMER WITH
AN AFTERNOON/EVENING ZEPHYR EACH DAY AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE IF NOT A LITTLE
BELOW. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH TODAY WITH
BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SIERRA. COVERAGE MAY BE MORE OVER MONO
COUNTY INCLUDING KMMH, BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING. MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS 40+ KTS AND
ASSOCIATED WIND SHEAR.

MORE CLOUDS TONIGHT BEFORE A POTENTIAL REPEAT ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE
INCREASES, BUT THE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER.
WALLMANN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LIGHTNING TODAY WITH STORMS AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE. CLOUD COVER IS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE THIS
MORNING SO COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED. STORMS WILL
START DRY AND BECOME WET/DRY HYBRIDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AS WE
MOVE INTO SATURDAY, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND EXPECT
HYBRID STORMS THAT DAY. GIVEN THE DRYNESS AND HEAT PRECEDING, IT
COULD BE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE DAY. HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER LOOKS LIKE
IT MIGHT BE EXTENSIVE THAT WOULD REDUCE THE INSTABILITY AND
COVERAGE OF STORMS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WILL NOT ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR DRY LIGHTNING.

AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY, MORE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND STORMS
WILL BE SLOW MOVING. AT THAT POINT, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGER
CONCERN ALTHOUGH A FEW STARTS OUTSIDE THE CORES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE HIGHER TOO WITH MINIMUMS LIKELY TO
REMAIN ABOVE 20% IN WESTERN NV AND 30% IN THE SIERRA. DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY. WINDS
NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE TYPICAL ZEPHYRS WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 310317
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
817 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH THE LATEST NAM STILL SHOWING A MINOR SHORT
WAVE LIFTING NORTH TONIGHT WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN
FOR MONO COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THIS WAVE MAY DO NOTHING MORE THAN
REINFORCE THE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE REGION...BUT THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
WAVE MOVES NORTH. CLOUD SHIELD COULD AFFECT START TIME AND
COVERAGE FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL MAKE NO
ADJUSTMENTS BEYOND TONIGHT. MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE
OUT SOON. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, MAINLY FOR THE SIERRA AND IN FAR WESTERN
NEVADA. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING FIRE STARTS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
THIS WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVERALL, FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM REGARDING THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND COVERAGE
DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES IN MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR
WESTERN NEVADA. HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY AT THE RENO-TAHOE
AIRPORT HAS ALREADY HIT 99 DEGREES. A FEW ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER MONO COUNTY AND NORTH INTO
LASSEN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING
THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH LEAVES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN OVERNIGHT SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IN MONO COUNTY.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FRIDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
INCREASING OVER MONO COUNTY AND NORTH INTO THE TAHOE BASIN AND
WESTERN NEVADA SIERRA FRONT. STORMS WILL HAVE 10-15KT STORM
MOTION, BUT THIS REALLY WON`T BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE QUICKLY
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 0.75" BY LATE FRIDAY. SO,
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT HIGH-BASED WITH LITTLE RAINFALL
INITIALLY, THEN TRANSITION TO WETTER STORMS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS UP. DRY SUB-CLOUD BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW
STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH. PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE CONCERNS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL
BRING ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER, WHICH MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION WE SEE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME CLEARING THAT WOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. 500-300MB LAPSE RATES DO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE FOR SATURDAY,
AROUND 7.5 C/KM, SO THIS DAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GO EITHER WAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO NEAR 0.90" ON SATURDAY, SO STORMS
WILL BE PRETTY WET WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED
FOR ANY UPDATES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT, SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH.
AGAIN, MODELS ARE HAVING RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVES THIS WEEKEND, BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN
SUGGESTS DECENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOON

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS STILL
FASTER BRINGING A JET SEGMENT INTO THE CENTRAL SIERRA AND NORTHERN
NV MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE THE EC IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH, WEAKER AND
ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
AND THE EC IS A BIT FASTER, SO THINKING MODELS MAY BE TRYING TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION POSSIBLY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS JET SEGMENT WILL
IMPACT HOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON STORMS DEVELOPING, BUT LOW ON
HOW STRONG AND WIDESPREAD THEY MIGHT BE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE FAST ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT, BUT
THIS WOULD ALSO INCREASE THE RISK OF STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA BY
TUESDAY, HELPING TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE SOME MOISTURE MAY LINGER NEAR THE OREGON BORDER TUESDAY, AND
SO WILL LEAVE A 10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, BUT NO MENTION OF
WEATHER. MODELS ARE INDICATING A TROUGH MAY PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST
AROUND THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME, WITH ENHANCED AFTERNOON
ZEPHYR WINDS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FEATURE TUESDAY-THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH TRANSLATES
TO UPPER 80S TO MID 90S IN WESTERN NEVADA AND IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S
IN THE SIERRA. DJ

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE SIERRA AND FOR MUCH OF
NEVADA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG THE SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WHICH COULD CAUSE GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS. CLOUD BASES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 09-12K FEET AGL WITH TOPS IN
THE BETTER BUILDUPS AS HIGH AS 30K FEET.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SIERRA
AND NORTHWEST NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN, LOWERING CIGS/VIS, AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. DJ

FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST WILL PROVIDE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH POOR MID AND UPPER SLOPE HUMIDITY RECOVERY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SIERRA.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE SIERRA
CREST THROUGH ALPINE AND MONO COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LESSER
ISOLATED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE TAHOE BASIN AND INTO WESTERN
NEVADA THROUGH MINERAL COUNTY. THESE WILL BE HYBRID TYPE STORMS (MIX
OF WET AND DRY STORMS) WITH STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS
AND ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND FIRE STARTS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF
THE MAIN STORM CORES FRIDAY BUT NOT ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD DRY
LIGHTNING OUTBREAK. AS MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WE
WILL SEE THE THREAT FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND ISOLATED DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES TRANSITION TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING THREAT BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE BEST
POTENTIAL AND COVERAGE FOR STORMS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE SIERRA AND MAINLY WEST OF ALTERNATE HWY 95 IN
WESTERN NEVADA. SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 310317
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
817 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH THE LATEST NAM STILL SHOWING A MINOR SHORT
WAVE LIFTING NORTH TONIGHT WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN
FOR MONO COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THIS WAVE MAY DO NOTHING MORE THAN
REINFORCE THE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE REGION...BUT THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
WAVE MOVES NORTH. CLOUD SHIELD COULD AFFECT START TIME AND
COVERAGE FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL MAKE NO
ADJUSTMENTS BEYOND TONIGHT. MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE
OUT SOON. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, MAINLY FOR THE SIERRA AND IN FAR WESTERN
NEVADA. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING FIRE STARTS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
THIS WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVERALL, FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM REGARDING THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND COVERAGE
DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES IN MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR
WESTERN NEVADA. HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY AT THE RENO-TAHOE
AIRPORT HAS ALREADY HIT 99 DEGREES. A FEW ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER MONO COUNTY AND NORTH INTO
LASSEN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING
THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH LEAVES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN OVERNIGHT SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IN MONO COUNTY.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FRIDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
INCREASING OVER MONO COUNTY AND NORTH INTO THE TAHOE BASIN AND
WESTERN NEVADA SIERRA FRONT. STORMS WILL HAVE 10-15KT STORM
MOTION, BUT THIS REALLY WON`T BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE QUICKLY
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 0.75" BY LATE FRIDAY. SO,
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT HIGH-BASED WITH LITTLE RAINFALL
INITIALLY, THEN TRANSITION TO WETTER STORMS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS UP. DRY SUB-CLOUD BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW
STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH. PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE CONCERNS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL
BRING ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER, WHICH MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION WE SEE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME CLEARING THAT WOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. 500-300MB LAPSE RATES DO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE FOR SATURDAY,
AROUND 7.5 C/KM, SO THIS DAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GO EITHER WAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO NEAR 0.90" ON SATURDAY, SO STORMS
WILL BE PRETTY WET WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED
FOR ANY UPDATES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT, SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH.
AGAIN, MODELS ARE HAVING RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVES THIS WEEKEND, BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN
SUGGESTS DECENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOON

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS STILL
FASTER BRINGING A JET SEGMENT INTO THE CENTRAL SIERRA AND NORTHERN
NV MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE THE EC IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH, WEAKER AND
ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
AND THE EC IS A BIT FASTER, SO THINKING MODELS MAY BE TRYING TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION POSSIBLY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS JET SEGMENT WILL
IMPACT HOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON STORMS DEVELOPING, BUT LOW ON
HOW STRONG AND WIDESPREAD THEY MIGHT BE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE FAST ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT, BUT
THIS WOULD ALSO INCREASE THE RISK OF STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA BY
TUESDAY, HELPING TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE SOME MOISTURE MAY LINGER NEAR THE OREGON BORDER TUESDAY, AND
SO WILL LEAVE A 10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, BUT NO MENTION OF
WEATHER. MODELS ARE INDICATING A TROUGH MAY PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST
AROUND THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME, WITH ENHANCED AFTERNOON
ZEPHYR WINDS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FEATURE TUESDAY-THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH TRANSLATES
TO UPPER 80S TO MID 90S IN WESTERN NEVADA AND IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S
IN THE SIERRA. DJ

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE SIERRA AND FOR MUCH OF
NEVADA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG THE SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WHICH COULD CAUSE GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS. CLOUD BASES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 09-12K FEET AGL WITH TOPS IN
THE BETTER BUILDUPS AS HIGH AS 30K FEET.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SIERRA
AND NORTHWEST NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN, LOWERING CIGS/VIS, AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. DJ

FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST WILL PROVIDE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH POOR MID AND UPPER SLOPE HUMIDITY RECOVERY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SIERRA.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE SIERRA
CREST THROUGH ALPINE AND MONO COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LESSER
ISOLATED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE TAHOE BASIN AND INTO WESTERN
NEVADA THROUGH MINERAL COUNTY. THESE WILL BE HYBRID TYPE STORMS (MIX
OF WET AND DRY STORMS) WITH STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS
AND ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND FIRE STARTS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF
THE MAIN STORM CORES FRIDAY BUT NOT ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD DRY
LIGHTNING OUTBREAK. AS MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WE
WILL SEE THE THREAT FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND ISOLATED DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES TRANSITION TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING THREAT BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE BEST
POTENTIAL AND COVERAGE FOR STORMS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE SIERRA AND MAINLY WEST OF ALTERNATE HWY 95 IN
WESTERN NEVADA. SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 310317
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
817 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING...BUT WITH THE LATEST NAM STILL SHOWING A MINOR SHORT
WAVE LIFTING NORTH TONIGHT WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN
FOR MONO COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THIS WAVE MAY DO NOTHING MORE THAN
REINFORCE THE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE REGION...BUT THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
WAVE MOVES NORTH. CLOUD SHIELD COULD AFFECT START TIME AND
COVERAGE FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL MAKE NO
ADJUSTMENTS BEYOND TONIGHT. MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE
OUT SOON. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, MAINLY FOR THE SIERRA AND IN FAR WESTERN
NEVADA. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING FIRE STARTS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
THIS WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVERALL, FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM REGARDING THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND COVERAGE
DUE TO INCONSISTENCIES IN MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS.

TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR
WESTERN NEVADA. HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY AT THE RENO-TAHOE
AIRPORT HAS ALREADY HIT 99 DEGREES. A FEW ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER MONO COUNTY AND NORTH INTO
LASSEN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING
THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH LEAVES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN OVERNIGHT SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IN MONO COUNTY.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FRIDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
INCREASING OVER MONO COUNTY AND NORTH INTO THE TAHOE BASIN AND
WESTERN NEVADA SIERRA FRONT. STORMS WILL HAVE 10-15KT STORM
MOTION, BUT THIS REALLY WON`T BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE QUICKLY
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 0.75" BY LATE FRIDAY. SO,
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT HIGH-BASED WITH LITTLE RAINFALL
INITIALLY, THEN TRANSITION TO WETTER STORMS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS UP. DRY SUB-CLOUD BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW
STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH. PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR FIRE CONCERNS.

SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL
BRING ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER, WHICH MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION WE SEE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME CLEARING THAT WOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. 500-300MB LAPSE RATES DO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE FOR SATURDAY,
AROUND 7.5 C/KM, SO THIS DAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GO EITHER WAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO NEAR 0.90" ON SATURDAY, SO STORMS
WILL BE PRETTY WET WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED
FOR ANY UPDATES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT, SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH.
AGAIN, MODELS ARE HAVING RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVES THIS WEEKEND, BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN
SUGGESTS DECENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOON

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS STILL
FASTER BRINGING A JET SEGMENT INTO THE CENTRAL SIERRA AND NORTHERN
NV MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE THE EC IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH, WEAKER AND
ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER. THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
AND THE EC IS A BIT FASTER, SO THINKING MODELS MAY BE TRYING TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION POSSIBLY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS JET SEGMENT WILL
IMPACT HOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE ON STORMS DEVELOPING, BUT LOW ON
HOW STRONG AND WIDESPREAD THEY MIGHT BE. IT DOES APPEAR THAT STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE FAST ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT, BUT
THIS WOULD ALSO INCREASE THE RISK OF STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA BY
TUESDAY, HELPING TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE SOME MOISTURE MAY LINGER NEAR THE OREGON BORDER TUESDAY, AND
SO WILL LEAVE A 10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, BUT NO MENTION OF
WEATHER. MODELS ARE INDICATING A TROUGH MAY PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST
AROUND THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME, WITH ENHANCED AFTERNOON
ZEPHYR WINDS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FEATURE TUESDAY-THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH TRANSLATES
TO UPPER 80S TO MID 90S IN WESTERN NEVADA AND IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S
IN THE SIERRA. DJ

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE SIERRA AND FOR MUCH OF
NEVADA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG THE SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WHICH COULD CAUSE GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS. CLOUD BASES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 09-12K FEET AGL WITH TOPS IN
THE BETTER BUILDUPS AS HIGH AS 30K FEET.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SIERRA
AND NORTHWEST NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN, LOWERING CIGS/VIS, AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. DJ

FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST WILL PROVIDE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH POOR MID AND UPPER SLOPE HUMIDITY RECOVERY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE
IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SIERRA.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE SIERRA
CREST THROUGH ALPINE AND MONO COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LESSER
ISOLATED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE TAHOE BASIN AND INTO WESTERN
NEVADA THROUGH MINERAL COUNTY. THESE WILL BE HYBRID TYPE STORMS (MIX
OF WET AND DRY STORMS) WITH STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS
AND ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND FIRE STARTS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF
THE MAIN STORM CORES FRIDAY BUT NOT ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD DRY
LIGHTNING OUTBREAK. AS MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WE
WILL SEE THE THREAT FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND ISOLATED DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES TRANSITION TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING THREAT BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE BEST
POTENTIAL AND COVERAGE FOR STORMS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE SIERRA AND MAINLY WEST OF ALTERNATE HWY 95 IN
WESTERN NEVADA. SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




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