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000
FXUS65 KREV 030953
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
253 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. LOCAL FLASH FLOODING, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

VERY MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED RAIN YESTERDAY
EVENING, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S ELSEWHERE. WHILE MOST
OF THE PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN MONO-NORTHERN INYO COUNTY. DUE TO THE MOIST
CONDITIONS AND SOME LINGERING RADAR ECHOES FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION, WE KEPT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS FOR THIS
MORNING.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE SIERRA THEN
SPREADING EAST ACROSS WESTERN NV. UNLIKE YESTERDAY WHEN MANY CELLS
WERE MOVING TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST, TODAY`S ACTIVITY IS MORE
LIKELY TO MOVE OR PROPAGATE MORE TO THE EAST AS A WEAK ZEPHYR
DEVELOPS EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BEFORE
THIS ZEPHYR SETS UP, THERE COULD BE SOME SLOW MOVING CELLS NEAR
THE SIERRA CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. YESTERDAY THE
FASTER CELL MOTION LIMITED RAIN AMOUNTS, EXCEPT FOR A FEW AREAS
EXTENDING FROM SIERRA COUNTY TO PORTIONS OF RENO-SPARKS NORTH OF
I-80, WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1 INCH OF RAIN WAS REPORTED. WHILE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT PLANNED AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL OCCUR, THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE NOT ONLY FOR TODAY,
BUT INTO THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ON WILDFIRE BURN SCARS OR NEAR
STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR LATE TONIGHT, LIGHTER SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD CONTINUE AS DEEP MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAIN
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING PRECIP OVER WEST CENTRAL NEVADA.

FOR SATURDAY, MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN A
SIMILAR MANNER AS TODAY, WITH INITIAL CELLS FIRING UP NEAR THE
SIERRA THEN SPREADING TO THE EAST. MANY OF THE GUIDANCE RUNS ALSO
INDICATED SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO SUSTAIN SOME ACTIVITY AGAIN
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY IMPACT HOLIDAY
ACTIVITIES INCLUDING EVENING FIREWORKS SHOWS, SO KEEP POSTED TO
OUR WEB SITE AND SOCIAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST THUNDERSTORM
INFORMATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED SO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES. THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER AS THERE APPEARS TO BE LESS UPPER LEVEL
FORCING, WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE COMPARED TO SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL TREND A LITTLE LOWER, WITH
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT MAINLY LIMITED TO THE WEST CENTRAL NV BASIN TODAY,
THEN GENERALLY IN THE 90S IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
DUE TO THE MOIST AIR MASS WITH AREAS OF CLOUD COVER. MJD

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING...MOSTLY TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THURSDAY AND TO ADD
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT.

LATEST FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE HOLDS ON TO THE UPPER LOW FOR A BIT
LONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AT LEAST THE GFS AND MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS DO. THE ECMWF BEGINS TO LIFT THE LOW OUT LATE THURSDAY WHILE
THE GFS AND MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HOLD ON TO THE LOW OVER CA
UNTIL LATE FRIDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MEAN A CONTINUED POSSIBILITY
FOR CONVECTION OVER THE REGION...ALBEIT A SLIGHT CHANCE...AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS MOISTURE NORTH AND INSTABILITY INCREASES ALOFT
AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER TO GO ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DOES START TO INCREASE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND THIS MAY
LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES NEAR THE SIERRA CREST AND JUST DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE CREST OVER MONO COUNTY AND PARTS OF THE TAHOE BASIN...BUT
UPPER DIFFLUENCE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY INCREASE CHANCES OF
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A BIT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TO
MORE SEASONAL LEVELS AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER. THIS WILL INCREASE
CLOUDS AND START TO LOWER HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STAY ABOVE AVERAGE GIVEN CLOUDS AT NIGHT AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. 20

&&

.AVIATION...

AVIATION WEATHER WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE REGION. BEST COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ALONG THE SIERRA AND JUST EAST INTO FAR
WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. OUTSIDE THE STORMS VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...BUT WITHIN THE STORMS LOWERED CIGS AND VSBYS
ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL. TURBULENCE IS LIKELY
NEAR THE STORMS AS WELL.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...THEN LESS STORMS
ARE LIKELY FOR SUNDAY. 20

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 030953
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
253 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. LOCAL FLASH FLOODING, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

VERY MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED RAIN YESTERDAY
EVENING, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S ELSEWHERE. WHILE MOST
OF THE PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN MONO-NORTHERN INYO COUNTY. DUE TO THE MOIST
CONDITIONS AND SOME LINGERING RADAR ECHOES FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION, WE KEPT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS FOR THIS
MORNING.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE SIERRA THEN
SPREADING EAST ACROSS WESTERN NV. UNLIKE YESTERDAY WHEN MANY CELLS
WERE MOVING TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST, TODAY`S ACTIVITY IS MORE
LIKELY TO MOVE OR PROPAGATE MORE TO THE EAST AS A WEAK ZEPHYR
DEVELOPS EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BEFORE
THIS ZEPHYR SETS UP, THERE COULD BE SOME SLOW MOVING CELLS NEAR
THE SIERRA CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. YESTERDAY THE
FASTER CELL MOTION LIMITED RAIN AMOUNTS, EXCEPT FOR A FEW AREAS
EXTENDING FROM SIERRA COUNTY TO PORTIONS OF RENO-SPARKS NORTH OF
I-80, WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1 INCH OF RAIN WAS REPORTED. WHILE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT PLANNED AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL OCCUR, THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE NOT ONLY FOR TODAY,
BUT INTO THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ON WILDFIRE BURN SCARS OR NEAR
STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR LATE TONIGHT, LIGHTER SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD CONTINUE AS DEEP MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAIN
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING PRECIP OVER WEST CENTRAL NEVADA.

FOR SATURDAY, MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN A
SIMILAR MANNER AS TODAY, WITH INITIAL CELLS FIRING UP NEAR THE
SIERRA THEN SPREADING TO THE EAST. MANY OF THE GUIDANCE RUNS ALSO
INDICATED SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO SUSTAIN SOME ACTIVITY AGAIN
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY IMPACT HOLIDAY
ACTIVITIES INCLUDING EVENING FIREWORKS SHOWS, SO KEEP POSTED TO
OUR WEB SITE AND SOCIAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST THUNDERSTORM
INFORMATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED SO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES. THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER AS THERE APPEARS TO BE LESS UPPER LEVEL
FORCING, WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE COMPARED TO SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL TREND A LITTLE LOWER, WITH
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT MAINLY LIMITED TO THE WEST CENTRAL NV BASIN TODAY,
THEN GENERALLY IN THE 90S IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
DUE TO THE MOIST AIR MASS WITH AREAS OF CLOUD COVER. MJD

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING...MOSTLY TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THURSDAY AND TO ADD
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT.

LATEST FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE HOLDS ON TO THE UPPER LOW FOR A BIT
LONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AT LEAST THE GFS AND MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS DO. THE ECMWF BEGINS TO LIFT THE LOW OUT LATE THURSDAY WHILE
THE GFS AND MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HOLD ON TO THE LOW OVER CA
UNTIL LATE FRIDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MEAN A CONTINUED POSSIBILITY
FOR CONVECTION OVER THE REGION...ALBEIT A SLIGHT CHANCE...AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS MOISTURE NORTH AND INSTABILITY INCREASES ALOFT
AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER TO GO ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DOES START TO INCREASE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND THIS MAY
LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES NEAR THE SIERRA CREST AND JUST DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE CREST OVER MONO COUNTY AND PARTS OF THE TAHOE BASIN...BUT
UPPER DIFFLUENCE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY INCREASE CHANCES OF
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A BIT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TO
MORE SEASONAL LEVELS AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER. THIS WILL INCREASE
CLOUDS AND START TO LOWER HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STAY ABOVE AVERAGE GIVEN CLOUDS AT NIGHT AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. 20

&&

.AVIATION...

AVIATION WEATHER WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE REGION. BEST COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ALONG THE SIERRA AND JUST EAST INTO FAR
WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. OUTSIDE THE STORMS VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...BUT WITHIN THE STORMS LOWERED CIGS AND VSBYS
ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL. TURBULENCE IS LIKELY
NEAR THE STORMS AS WELL.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...THEN LESS STORMS
ARE LIKELY FOR SUNDAY. 20

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 030953
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
253 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. LOCAL FLASH FLOODING, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

VERY MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS
NEAR OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED RAIN YESTERDAY
EVENING, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S ELSEWHERE. WHILE MOST
OF THE PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED IN SOUTHERN MONO-NORTHERN INYO COUNTY. DUE TO THE MOIST
CONDITIONS AND SOME LINGERING RADAR ECHOES FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION, WE KEPT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS FOR THIS
MORNING.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE SIERRA THEN
SPREADING EAST ACROSS WESTERN NV. UNLIKE YESTERDAY WHEN MANY CELLS
WERE MOVING TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST, TODAY`S ACTIVITY IS MORE
LIKELY TO MOVE OR PROPAGATE MORE TO THE EAST AS A WEAK ZEPHYR
DEVELOPS EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BEFORE
THIS ZEPHYR SETS UP, THERE COULD BE SOME SLOW MOVING CELLS NEAR
THE SIERRA CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. YESTERDAY THE
FASTER CELL MOTION LIMITED RAIN AMOUNTS, EXCEPT FOR A FEW AREAS
EXTENDING FROM SIERRA COUNTY TO PORTIONS OF RENO-SPARKS NORTH OF
I-80, WHERE BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1 INCH OF RAIN WAS REPORTED. WHILE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT PLANNED AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL OCCUR, THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE NOT ONLY FOR TODAY,
BUT INTO THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ON WILDFIRE BURN SCARS OR NEAR
STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR LATE TONIGHT, LIGHTER SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD CONTINUE AS DEEP MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAIN
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING PRECIP OVER WEST CENTRAL NEVADA.

FOR SATURDAY, MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN A
SIMILAR MANNER AS TODAY, WITH INITIAL CELLS FIRING UP NEAR THE
SIERRA THEN SPREADING TO THE EAST. MANY OF THE GUIDANCE RUNS ALSO
INDICATED SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO SUSTAIN SOME ACTIVITY AGAIN
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY IMPACT HOLIDAY
ACTIVITIES INCLUDING EVENING FIREWORKS SHOWS, SO KEEP POSTED TO
OUR WEB SITE AND SOCIAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST THUNDERSTORM
INFORMATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED SO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES. THE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE A BIT LOWER AS THERE APPEARS TO BE LESS UPPER LEVEL
FORCING, WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE COMPARED TO SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL TREND A LITTLE LOWER, WITH
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT MAINLY LIMITED TO THE WEST CENTRAL NV BASIN TODAY,
THEN GENERALLY IN THE 90S IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
DUE TO THE MOIST AIR MASS WITH AREAS OF CLOUD COVER. MJD

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING...MOSTLY TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THURSDAY AND TO ADD
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT.

LATEST FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE HOLDS ON TO THE UPPER LOW FOR A BIT
LONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AT LEAST THE GFS AND MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS DO. THE ECMWF BEGINS TO LIFT THE LOW OUT LATE THURSDAY WHILE
THE GFS AND MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HOLD ON TO THE LOW OVER CA
UNTIL LATE FRIDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MEAN A CONTINUED POSSIBILITY
FOR CONVECTION OVER THE REGION...ALBEIT A SLIGHT CHANCE...AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS MOISTURE NORTH AND INSTABILITY INCREASES ALOFT
AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER TO GO ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DOES START TO INCREASE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND THIS MAY
LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES NEAR THE SIERRA CREST AND JUST DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE CREST OVER MONO COUNTY AND PARTS OF THE TAHOE BASIN...BUT
UPPER DIFFLUENCE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 MAY INCREASE CHANCES OF
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A BIT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TO
MORE SEASONAL LEVELS AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER. THIS WILL INCREASE
CLOUDS AND START TO LOWER HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STAY ABOVE AVERAGE GIVEN CLOUDS AT NIGHT AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. 20

&&

.AVIATION...

AVIATION WEATHER WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE REGION. BEST COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ALONG THE SIERRA AND JUST EAST INTO FAR
WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. OUTSIDE THE STORMS VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...BUT WITHIN THE STORMS LOWERED CIGS AND VSBYS
ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL. TURBULENCE IS LIKELY
NEAR THE STORMS AS WELL.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY...THEN LESS STORMS
ARE LIKELY FOR SUNDAY. 20

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 030315
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
810 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...

MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE RAIN/TSTM COVERAGE THIS
EVENING IN THE I-80 CORRIDOR. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND EARLIER HRRR
RUNS, LARGE MASS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W/SW FROM
LOVELOCK/FERNLEY INTO THE SIERRA FRONT AND POSSIBLY THE TAHOE
BASIN. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. ANOTHER SET OF
STORMS OVER MINERAL COUNTY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MOVEMENT TO THE NW.
THIS MAY END UP PROVIDING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO THE WASHINGTON FIRE
BURN SCAR AREA OVERNIGHT.

WE COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF FOG TOMORROW MORNING IN THE FAVORED
VALLEY AREAS, SUCH AS TRUCKEE, GIVEN EARLIER AND ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL. REST OF THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED. CS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME
COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOCAL FLASH FLOODING, ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
TO IMPACT THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE, STRONG INSTABILITY AND MULTIPLE UPPER
LEVELS WAVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE GOING TO CREATE SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST THREAT
WILL BE FROM 2PM TO 9PM EACH AFTERNOON. IF YOU ARE GOING TO BE
OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND, HAVE A THUNDERSTORM PLAN IN PLACE.

TODAY...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AGAIN FORMED BY NOON OVER THE SIERRA AND IN SE
CHURCHILL COUNTY. GOOD CLEARING THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR
STRONG HEATING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL CREATE SOME
ADDITIONAL FORCING NEAR PEAK HEATING HOURS. SOME WIND SHEAR ALOFT
TODAY COULD CREATE SOME STRONGER, LONGER-LIVED STORMS. MANY STORMS
IN WESTERN NEVADA ARE MOVING QUICKER TODAY, BUT STORMS IN THE
SIERRA ARE ALREADY BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. WHILE SOME
STORMS ARE MOVING A BIT FASTER TODAY, TRAINING, INTERACTION WITH
OUTFLOWS, AND TERRAIN WILL STILL CREATE AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT.

FRIDAY...

GOOD CLEARINGS IS AGAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. STORM EVOLUTION
SHOULD BE A BIT DIFFERENT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES STRONGER, MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND MORE SSW. IN ADDITION A
ZEPHYR WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL CREATE ANOTHER MODE
OF FORCING IN FAR WESTERN NEVADA.

SATURDAY...

SATURDAY COULD HAVE THE STRONGEST STORMS OF THE WEEK. PWATS BY
THEN ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER AN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
MOISTURE THIS HIGH CAN LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING, BUT ALSO
HAS THE POSSIBILITY TO CLOUD OVER EARLY IN THE DAY DAMPING HEAT
DRIVEN INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE THE STRONGEST
ON SATURDAY AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVES ARE FORECAST AS WELL.

SUNDAY...

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH THE FOCUS
PRIMARILY OVER THE SIERRA FROM MONO THROUGH LASSEN COUNTIES.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE SEEMS TO BE LOWER CHANCES NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 FROM NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA.
STILL ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS CONSIDERING THE DRIER SURFACE PROFILES. THOSE
IN THE SIERRA WILL SEE SOME FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WASHINGTON FIRE BURN SCAR AS SOME CELLS MAY TRAIN. TEMPERATURES
TREND COOLER AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN
NEVADA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FLOW BECOMES
MUCH DRIER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER NEUTRAL
PRESSURE ADVECTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MUCH DRIER MID
LEVEL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS POINTS TO STRONG OUTFLOWS BEING THE
PREDOMINANT THREAT AS WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PROGRESSIVE STORM
MOTIONS. AFTERNOON ZEPHYRS SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF
THE SIERRA INTO WESTERN NEVADA.

OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS
AROUND 90 IN WESTERN NEVADA AND AROUND 80 IN THE SIERRA. ZEPHYR
WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED AS THE BACKGROUND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ADDS TO THE ZEPHYR WINDS. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
TSRA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY FM 20-04Z. CHANCE FOR IMPACT
40 PCT AT KMMH...30 PCT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP/KNFL AND 20-25 PCT
ELSEWHERE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 45
KTS...SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SMALL HAIL
WITH DRIER MID-LEVELS. MOISTURE INCREASES SAT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS
STORMS DEPENDING ON DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. MARGINALLY DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING. WALLMANN/BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 030315
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
810 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...

MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE RAIN/TSTM COVERAGE THIS
EVENING IN THE I-80 CORRIDOR. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND EARLIER HRRR
RUNS, LARGE MASS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W/SW FROM
LOVELOCK/FERNLEY INTO THE SIERRA FRONT AND POSSIBLY THE TAHOE
BASIN. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. ANOTHER SET OF
STORMS OVER MINERAL COUNTY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MOVEMENT TO THE NW.
THIS MAY END UP PROVIDING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO THE WASHINGTON FIRE
BURN SCAR AREA OVERNIGHT.

WE COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF FOG TOMORROW MORNING IN THE FAVORED
VALLEY AREAS, SUCH AS TRUCKEE, GIVEN EARLIER AND ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL. REST OF THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED. CS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME
COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOCAL FLASH FLOODING, ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
TO IMPACT THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE, STRONG INSTABILITY AND MULTIPLE UPPER
LEVELS WAVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE GOING TO CREATE SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST THREAT
WILL BE FROM 2PM TO 9PM EACH AFTERNOON. IF YOU ARE GOING TO BE
OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND, HAVE A THUNDERSTORM PLAN IN PLACE.

TODAY...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AGAIN FORMED BY NOON OVER THE SIERRA AND IN SE
CHURCHILL COUNTY. GOOD CLEARING THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR
STRONG HEATING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL CREATE SOME
ADDITIONAL FORCING NEAR PEAK HEATING HOURS. SOME WIND SHEAR ALOFT
TODAY COULD CREATE SOME STRONGER, LONGER-LIVED STORMS. MANY STORMS
IN WESTERN NEVADA ARE MOVING QUICKER TODAY, BUT STORMS IN THE
SIERRA ARE ALREADY BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. WHILE SOME
STORMS ARE MOVING A BIT FASTER TODAY, TRAINING, INTERACTION WITH
OUTFLOWS, AND TERRAIN WILL STILL CREATE AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT.

FRIDAY...

GOOD CLEARINGS IS AGAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. STORM EVOLUTION
SHOULD BE A BIT DIFFERENT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES STRONGER, MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND MORE SSW. IN ADDITION A
ZEPHYR WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL CREATE ANOTHER MODE
OF FORCING IN FAR WESTERN NEVADA.

SATURDAY...

SATURDAY COULD HAVE THE STRONGEST STORMS OF THE WEEK. PWATS BY
THEN ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER AN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
MOISTURE THIS HIGH CAN LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING, BUT ALSO
HAS THE POSSIBILITY TO CLOUD OVER EARLY IN THE DAY DAMPING HEAT
DRIVEN INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE THE STRONGEST
ON SATURDAY AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVES ARE FORECAST AS WELL.

SUNDAY...

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH THE FOCUS
PRIMARILY OVER THE SIERRA FROM MONO THROUGH LASSEN COUNTIES.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE SEEMS TO BE LOWER CHANCES NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 FROM NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA.
STILL ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS CONSIDERING THE DRIER SURFACE PROFILES. THOSE
IN THE SIERRA WILL SEE SOME FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WASHINGTON FIRE BURN SCAR AS SOME CELLS MAY TRAIN. TEMPERATURES
TREND COOLER AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN
NEVADA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FLOW BECOMES
MUCH DRIER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER NEUTRAL
PRESSURE ADVECTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MUCH DRIER MID
LEVEL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS POINTS TO STRONG OUTFLOWS BEING THE
PREDOMINANT THREAT AS WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PROGRESSIVE STORM
MOTIONS. AFTERNOON ZEPHYRS SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF
THE SIERRA INTO WESTERN NEVADA.

OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS
AROUND 90 IN WESTERN NEVADA AND AROUND 80 IN THE SIERRA. ZEPHYR
WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED AS THE BACKGROUND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ADDS TO THE ZEPHYR WINDS. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
TSRA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY FM 20-04Z. CHANCE FOR IMPACT
40 PCT AT KMMH...30 PCT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP/KNFL AND 20-25 PCT
ELSEWHERE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 45
KTS...SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SMALL HAIL
WITH DRIER MID-LEVELS. MOISTURE INCREASES SAT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS
STORMS DEPENDING ON DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. MARGINALLY DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING. WALLMANN/BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 030315
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
810 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...

MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE RAIN/TSTM COVERAGE THIS
EVENING IN THE I-80 CORRIDOR. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND EARLIER HRRR
RUNS, LARGE MASS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W/SW FROM
LOVELOCK/FERNLEY INTO THE SIERRA FRONT AND POSSIBLY THE TAHOE
BASIN. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. ANOTHER SET OF
STORMS OVER MINERAL COUNTY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MOVEMENT TO THE NW.
THIS MAY END UP PROVIDING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO THE WASHINGTON FIRE
BURN SCAR AREA OVERNIGHT.

WE COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF FOG TOMORROW MORNING IN THE FAVORED
VALLEY AREAS, SUCH AS TRUCKEE, GIVEN EARLIER AND ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL. REST OF THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED. CS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME
COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOCAL FLASH FLOODING, ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
TO IMPACT THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE, STRONG INSTABILITY AND MULTIPLE UPPER
LEVELS WAVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE GOING TO CREATE SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST THREAT
WILL BE FROM 2PM TO 9PM EACH AFTERNOON. IF YOU ARE GOING TO BE
OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND, HAVE A THUNDERSTORM PLAN IN PLACE.

TODAY...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AGAIN FORMED BY NOON OVER THE SIERRA AND IN SE
CHURCHILL COUNTY. GOOD CLEARING THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR
STRONG HEATING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL CREATE SOME
ADDITIONAL FORCING NEAR PEAK HEATING HOURS. SOME WIND SHEAR ALOFT
TODAY COULD CREATE SOME STRONGER, LONGER-LIVED STORMS. MANY STORMS
IN WESTERN NEVADA ARE MOVING QUICKER TODAY, BUT STORMS IN THE
SIERRA ARE ALREADY BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. WHILE SOME
STORMS ARE MOVING A BIT FASTER TODAY, TRAINING, INTERACTION WITH
OUTFLOWS, AND TERRAIN WILL STILL CREATE AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT.

FRIDAY...

GOOD CLEARINGS IS AGAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. STORM EVOLUTION
SHOULD BE A BIT DIFFERENT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES STRONGER, MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND MORE SSW. IN ADDITION A
ZEPHYR WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL CREATE ANOTHER MODE
OF FORCING IN FAR WESTERN NEVADA.

SATURDAY...

SATURDAY COULD HAVE THE STRONGEST STORMS OF THE WEEK. PWATS BY
THEN ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER AN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
MOISTURE THIS HIGH CAN LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING, BUT ALSO
HAS THE POSSIBILITY TO CLOUD OVER EARLY IN THE DAY DAMPING HEAT
DRIVEN INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE THE STRONGEST
ON SATURDAY AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVES ARE FORECAST AS WELL.

SUNDAY...

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH THE FOCUS
PRIMARILY OVER THE SIERRA FROM MONO THROUGH LASSEN COUNTIES.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE SEEMS TO BE LOWER CHANCES NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 FROM NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA.
STILL ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS CONSIDERING THE DRIER SURFACE PROFILES. THOSE
IN THE SIERRA WILL SEE SOME FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WASHINGTON FIRE BURN SCAR AS SOME CELLS MAY TRAIN. TEMPERATURES
TREND COOLER AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN
NEVADA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FLOW BECOMES
MUCH DRIER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER NEUTRAL
PRESSURE ADVECTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MUCH DRIER MID
LEVEL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS POINTS TO STRONG OUTFLOWS BEING THE
PREDOMINANT THREAT AS WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PROGRESSIVE STORM
MOTIONS. AFTERNOON ZEPHYRS SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF
THE SIERRA INTO WESTERN NEVADA.

OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS
AROUND 90 IN WESTERN NEVADA AND AROUND 80 IN THE SIERRA. ZEPHYR
WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED AS THE BACKGROUND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ADDS TO THE ZEPHYR WINDS. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
TSRA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY FM 20-04Z. CHANCE FOR IMPACT
40 PCT AT KMMH...30 PCT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP/KNFL AND 20-25 PCT
ELSEWHERE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 45
KTS...SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SMALL HAIL
WITH DRIER MID-LEVELS. MOISTURE INCREASES SAT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS
STORMS DEPENDING ON DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. MARGINALLY DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING. WALLMANN/BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 030315
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
810 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...

MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE RAIN/TSTM COVERAGE THIS
EVENING IN THE I-80 CORRIDOR. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND EARLIER HRRR
RUNS, LARGE MASS OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W/SW FROM
LOVELOCK/FERNLEY INTO THE SIERRA FRONT AND POSSIBLY THE TAHOE
BASIN. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. ANOTHER SET OF
STORMS OVER MINERAL COUNTY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MOVEMENT TO THE NW.
THIS MAY END UP PROVIDING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO THE WASHINGTON FIRE
BURN SCAR AREA OVERNIGHT.

WE COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF FOG TOMORROW MORNING IN THE FAVORED
VALLEY AREAS, SUCH AS TRUCKEE, GIVEN EARLIER AND ANTICIPATED
RAINFALL. REST OF THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED. CS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME
COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOCAL FLASH FLOODING, ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
TO IMPACT THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE, STRONG INSTABILITY AND MULTIPLE UPPER
LEVELS WAVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE GOING TO CREATE SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST THREAT
WILL BE FROM 2PM TO 9PM EACH AFTERNOON. IF YOU ARE GOING TO BE
OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND, HAVE A THUNDERSTORM PLAN IN PLACE.

TODAY...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AGAIN FORMED BY NOON OVER THE SIERRA AND IN SE
CHURCHILL COUNTY. GOOD CLEARING THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR
STRONG HEATING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL CREATE SOME
ADDITIONAL FORCING NEAR PEAK HEATING HOURS. SOME WIND SHEAR ALOFT
TODAY COULD CREATE SOME STRONGER, LONGER-LIVED STORMS. MANY STORMS
IN WESTERN NEVADA ARE MOVING QUICKER TODAY, BUT STORMS IN THE
SIERRA ARE ALREADY BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. WHILE SOME
STORMS ARE MOVING A BIT FASTER TODAY, TRAINING, INTERACTION WITH
OUTFLOWS, AND TERRAIN WILL STILL CREATE AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT.

FRIDAY...

GOOD CLEARINGS IS AGAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. STORM EVOLUTION
SHOULD BE A BIT DIFFERENT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES STRONGER, MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND MORE SSW. IN ADDITION A
ZEPHYR WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL CREATE ANOTHER MODE
OF FORCING IN FAR WESTERN NEVADA.

SATURDAY...

SATURDAY COULD HAVE THE STRONGEST STORMS OF THE WEEK. PWATS BY
THEN ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER AN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
MOISTURE THIS HIGH CAN LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING, BUT ALSO
HAS THE POSSIBILITY TO CLOUD OVER EARLY IN THE DAY DAMPING HEAT
DRIVEN INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE THE STRONGEST
ON SATURDAY AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVES ARE FORECAST AS WELL.

SUNDAY...

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH THE FOCUS
PRIMARILY OVER THE SIERRA FROM MONO THROUGH LASSEN COUNTIES.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE SEEMS TO BE LOWER CHANCES NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 FROM NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA.
STILL ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS CONSIDERING THE DRIER SURFACE PROFILES. THOSE
IN THE SIERRA WILL SEE SOME FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WASHINGTON FIRE BURN SCAR AS SOME CELLS MAY TRAIN. TEMPERATURES
TREND COOLER AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN
NEVADA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FLOW BECOMES
MUCH DRIER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER NEUTRAL
PRESSURE ADVECTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MUCH DRIER MID
LEVEL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS POINTS TO STRONG OUTFLOWS BEING THE
PREDOMINANT THREAT AS WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PROGRESSIVE STORM
MOTIONS. AFTERNOON ZEPHYRS SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF
THE SIERRA INTO WESTERN NEVADA.

OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS
AROUND 90 IN WESTERN NEVADA AND AROUND 80 IN THE SIERRA. ZEPHYR
WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED AS THE BACKGROUND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ADDS TO THE ZEPHYR WINDS. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
TSRA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY FM 20-04Z. CHANCE FOR IMPACT
40 PCT AT KMMH...30 PCT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP/KNFL AND 20-25 PCT
ELSEWHERE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 45
KTS...SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SMALL HAIL
WITH DRIER MID-LEVELS. MOISTURE INCREASES SAT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS
STORMS DEPENDING ON DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. MARGINALLY DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING. WALLMANN/BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 022119
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
219 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME
COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOCAL FLASH FLOODING, ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
TO IMPACT THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE, STRONG INSTABILITY AND MULTIPLE UPPER
LEVELS WAVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE GOING TO CREATE SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST THREAT
WILL BE FROM 2PM TO 9PM EACH AFTERNOON. IF YOU ARE GOING TO BE
OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND, HAVE A THUNDERSTORM PLAN IN PLACE.

TODAY...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AGAIN FORMED BY NOON OVER THE SIERRA AND IN SE
CHURCHILL COUNTY. GOOD CLEARING THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR
STRONG HEATING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL CREATE SOME
ADDITIONAL FORCING NEAR PEAK HEATING HOURS. SOME WIND SHEAR ALOFT
TODAY COULD CREATE SOME STRONGER, LONGER-LIVED STORMS. MANY STORMS
IN WESTERN NEVADA ARE MOVING QUICKER TODAY, BUT STORMS IN THE
SIERRA ARE ALREADY BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. WHILE SOME
STORMS ARE MOVING A BIT FASTER TODAY, TRAINING, INTERACTION WITH
OUTFLOWS, AND TERRAIN WILL STILL CREATE AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT.

FRIDAY...

GOOD CLEARINGS IS AGAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. STORM EVOLUTION
SHOULD BE A BIT DIFFERENT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES STRONGER, MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND MORE SSW. IN ADDITION A
ZEPHYR WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL CREATE ANOTHER MODE
OF FORCING IN FAR WESTERN NEVADA.

SATURDAY...

SATURDAY COULD HAVE THE STRONGEST STORMS OF THE WEEK. PWATS BY
THEN ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER AN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
MOISTURE THIS HIGH CAN LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING, BUT ALSO
HAS THE POSSIBILITY TO CLOUD OVER EARLY IN THE DAY DAMPING HEAT
DRIVEN INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE THE STRONGEST
ON SATURDAY AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVES ARE FORECAST AS WELL.

SUNDAY...

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH THE FOCUS
PRIMARILY OVER THE SIERRA FROM MONO THROUGH LASSEN COUNTIES.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE SEEMS TO BE LOWER CHANCES NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 FROM NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA.
STILL ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS CONSIDERING THE DRIER SURFACE PROFILES. THOSE
IN THE SIERRA WILL SEE SOME FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WASHINGTON FIRE BURN SCAR AS SOME CELLS MAY TRAIN. TEMPERATURES
TREND COOLER AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN
NEVADA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FLOW BECOMES
MUCH DRIER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER NEUTRAL
PRESSURE ADVECTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MUCH DRIER MID
LEVEL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS POINTS TO STRONG OUTFLOWS BEING THE
PREDOMINANT THREAT AS WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PROGRESSIVE STORM
MOTIONS. AFTERNOON ZEPHYRS SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF
THE SIERRA INTO WESTERN NEVADA.

OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS
AROUND 90 IN WESTERN NEVADA AND AROUND 80 IN THE SIERRA. ZEPHYR
WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED AS THE BACKGROUND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ADDS TO THE ZEPHYR WINDS. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
TSRA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY FM 20-04Z. CHANCE FOR IMPACT
40 PCT AT KMMH...30 PCT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP/KNFL AND 20-25 PCT
ELSEWHERE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 45
KTS...SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SMALL HAIL
WITH DRIER MID-LEVELS. MOISTURE INCREASES SAT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS
STORMS DEPENDING ON DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. MARGINALLY DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING. WALLMANN/BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 022119
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
219 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME
COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOCAL FLASH FLOODING, ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
TO IMPACT THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE, STRONG INSTABILITY AND MULTIPLE UPPER
LEVELS WAVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE GOING TO CREATE SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST THREAT
WILL BE FROM 2PM TO 9PM EACH AFTERNOON. IF YOU ARE GOING TO BE
OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND, HAVE A THUNDERSTORM PLAN IN PLACE.

TODAY...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AGAIN FORMED BY NOON OVER THE SIERRA AND IN SE
CHURCHILL COUNTY. GOOD CLEARING THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR
STRONG HEATING. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL CREATE SOME
ADDITIONAL FORCING NEAR PEAK HEATING HOURS. SOME WIND SHEAR ALOFT
TODAY COULD CREATE SOME STRONGER, LONGER-LIVED STORMS. MANY STORMS
IN WESTERN NEVADA ARE MOVING QUICKER TODAY, BUT STORMS IN THE
SIERRA ARE ALREADY BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. WHILE SOME
STORMS ARE MOVING A BIT FASTER TODAY, TRAINING, INTERACTION WITH
OUTFLOWS, AND TERRAIN WILL STILL CREATE AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT.

FRIDAY...

GOOD CLEARINGS IS AGAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. STORM EVOLUTION
SHOULD BE A BIT DIFFERENT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES STRONGER, MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND MORE SSW. IN ADDITION A
ZEPHYR WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL CREATE ANOTHER MODE
OF FORCING IN FAR WESTERN NEVADA.

SATURDAY...

SATURDAY COULD HAVE THE STRONGEST STORMS OF THE WEEK. PWATS BY
THEN ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER AN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
MOISTURE THIS HIGH CAN LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING, BUT ALSO
HAS THE POSSIBILITY TO CLOUD OVER EARLY IN THE DAY DAMPING HEAT
DRIVEN INSTABILITY. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE THE STRONGEST
ON SATURDAY AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVES ARE FORECAST AS WELL.

SUNDAY...

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH THE FOCUS
PRIMARILY OVER THE SIERRA FROM MONO THROUGH LASSEN COUNTIES.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE SEEMS TO BE LOWER CHANCES NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 FROM NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL NEVADA.
STILL ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS CONSIDERING THE DRIER SURFACE PROFILES. THOSE
IN THE SIERRA WILL SEE SOME FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WASHINGTON FIRE BURN SCAR AS SOME CELLS MAY TRAIN. TEMPERATURES
TREND COOLER AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN
NEVADA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FLOW BECOMES
MUCH DRIER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER NEUTRAL
PRESSURE ADVECTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MUCH DRIER MID
LEVEL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS POINTS TO STRONG OUTFLOWS BEING THE
PREDOMINANT THREAT AS WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PROGRESSIVE STORM
MOTIONS. AFTERNOON ZEPHYRS SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF
THE SIERRA INTO WESTERN NEVADA.

OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS
AROUND 90 IN WESTERN NEVADA AND AROUND 80 IN THE SIERRA. ZEPHYR
WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED AS THE BACKGROUND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ADDS TO THE ZEPHYR WINDS. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
TSRA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY FM 20-04Z. CHANCE FOR IMPACT
40 PCT AT KMMH...30 PCT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP/KNFL AND 20-25 PCT
ELSEWHERE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 45
KTS...SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SMALL HAIL
WITH DRIER MID-LEVELS. MOISTURE INCREASES SAT WITH SCT-NUMEROUS
STORMS DEPENDING ON DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. MARGINALLY DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUN WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING. WALLMANN/BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 020936
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
236 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME
COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. LOCAL FLASH FLOODING, ABUNDANT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE
STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

CLOUD COVER FROM YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES VERY MILD EARLY THIS MORNING. AS OF 2AM, THE RENO-TAHOE
AIRPORT IS CURRENTLY REPORTING A TEMPERATURE OF 78 DEGREES WITH A
DEWPOINT OF 51 DEGREES...BALMY BY NEVADA STANDARDS. THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, ACTING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER AND DELAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS WARMER
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA TODAY BUT THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
KEEP THINGS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS SUCH, HAVE CANCELLED
THE HEAT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN
AND RANGE.

THIS AFTERNOON`S STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL PLAY OUT SIMILAR TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SIERRA MAINLY THROUGH
MONO AND ALPINE COUNTIES. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE FOR TODAY WILL BE AN
ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WHICH
MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS BETTER CHANCES FROM PERSHING THROUGH MINERAL
COUNTIES TODAY AS A RESULT AND HAVE INCREASED STORM CHANCES IN THESE
AREAS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING.

WE HAVE SEEN ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT
THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE, INCREASED INSTABILITY, AND
SLOW STORM MOTIONS MAY BE OF MORE CONCERN FOR SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE LIMITING FACTORS ARE CLOUD COVER AND ORGANIZED FORCING ALOFT.
THE GFS DOES INDICATED A FEW VORTICITY IMPULSE TRACKING ACROSS THE
SIERRA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A PRIMED ATMOSPHERE WITH EXTERNAL
FORCING MAY PRESENT A MORE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING THREAT AND A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS A POSSIBILITY FOR THIS WEEKEND. THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS OVER THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY SHOULD KEEP UPDATED
ON THE FORECAST AS THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING,
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING, AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE MORE
MORE VERY ACTIVE DAY OF THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE SLOW DRYING BEGINS.
GFS/EC ENSEMBLES ALL SHOW THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST MOVING CLOSER
TO THE COAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. A MORE S-SW FLOW DEVELOPS
BRINGING IN DRY AIR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND AN AFTERNOON ZEPHYR,
STRONGER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

STILL EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE MONDAY, BUT IT APPEARS A
LITTLE MORE STABLE WITH LESS MOISTURE SO STORMS SHOULD BE FEWER THAN
WHAT WE SEE OVER THE WEEKEND. MORE DRYING TUESDAY, BUT BOTH MODELS
STILL SHOW A BIT OF A THREAT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED ZEPHYR IN THE AFTERNOON, BELIEVE AREAS AROUND TAHOE WILL
REMAIN DRY. CONTINUED WITH THE DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE
EC IS SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST SLOWING AND MOVING SOUTH.
THIS WOULD KEEP THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA UNDER THE THREAT FOR
MORE ISOLATED TSTORMS. WILL LEAVE IT OUT SINCE THIS IS A CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE EC ENSEMBLE PATTERN SUPPORTS MORE DRYING.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL. WALLMANN


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA TODAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY FM 20-04Z. CHANCE
FOR IMPACT 40 PCT AT KMMH...30 PCT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP/KNFL AND
20-25 PCT ELSEWHERE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 45
KTS...SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SMALL HAIL
WITH DRIER MID-LEVELS. MOISTURE INCREASES SAT-SUN WITH SCT-NUMEROUS
STORMS DEPENDING ON DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. WALLMANN/BOYD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 020936
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
236 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME
COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. LOCAL FLASH FLOODING, ABUNDANT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE
STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

CLOUD COVER FROM YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES VERY MILD EARLY THIS MORNING. AS OF 2AM, THE RENO-TAHOE
AIRPORT IS CURRENTLY REPORTING A TEMPERATURE OF 78 DEGREES WITH A
DEWPOINT OF 51 DEGREES...BALMY BY NEVADA STANDARDS. THIS CLOUD COVER
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, ACTING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER AND DELAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REACH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS WARMER
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA TODAY BUT THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
KEEP THINGS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS SUCH, HAVE CANCELLED
THE HEAT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN
AND RANGE.

THIS AFTERNOON`S STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL PLAY OUT SIMILAR TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SIERRA MAINLY THROUGH
MONO AND ALPINE COUNTIES. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE FOR TODAY WILL BE AN
ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WHICH
MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS BETTER CHANCES FROM PERSHING THROUGH MINERAL
COUNTIES TODAY AS A RESULT AND HAVE INCREASED STORM CHANCES IN THESE
AREAS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING.

WE HAVE SEEN ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT
THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE, INCREASED INSTABILITY, AND
SLOW STORM MOTIONS MAY BE OF MORE CONCERN FOR SEEING MORE
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE LIMITING FACTORS ARE CLOUD COVER AND ORGANIZED FORCING ALOFT.
THE GFS DOES INDICATED A FEW VORTICITY IMPULSE TRACKING ACROSS THE
SIERRA BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A PRIMED ATMOSPHERE WITH EXTERNAL
FORCING MAY PRESENT A MORE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING THREAT AND A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS A POSSIBILITY FOR THIS WEEKEND. THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS OVER THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY SHOULD KEEP UPDATED
ON THE FORECAST AS THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING,
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING, AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE MORE
MORE VERY ACTIVE DAY OF THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE SLOW DRYING BEGINS.
GFS/EC ENSEMBLES ALL SHOW THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST MOVING CLOSER
TO THE COAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. A MORE S-SW FLOW DEVELOPS
BRINGING IN DRY AIR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND AN AFTERNOON ZEPHYR,
STRONGER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

STILL EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE MONDAY, BUT IT APPEARS A
LITTLE MORE STABLE WITH LESS MOISTURE SO STORMS SHOULD BE FEWER THAN
WHAT WE SEE OVER THE WEEKEND. MORE DRYING TUESDAY, BUT BOTH MODELS
STILL SHOW A BIT OF A THREAT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED ZEPHYR IN THE AFTERNOON, BELIEVE AREAS AROUND TAHOE WILL
REMAIN DRY. CONTINUED WITH THE DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE
EC IS SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST SLOWING AND MOVING SOUTH.
THIS WOULD KEEP THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA UNDER THE THREAT FOR
MORE ISOLATED TSTORMS. WILL LEAVE IT OUT SINCE THIS IS A CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE EC ENSEMBLE PATTERN SUPPORTS MORE DRYING.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL. WALLMANN


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA TODAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY FM 20-04Z. CHANCE
FOR IMPACT 40 PCT AT KMMH...30 PCT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP/KNFL AND
20-25 PCT ELSEWHERE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 45
KTS...SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SMALL HAIL
WITH DRIER MID-LEVELS. MOISTURE INCREASES SAT-SUN WITH SCT-NUMEROUS
STORMS DEPENDING ON DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. WALLMANN/BOYD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 020342
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
840 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...

ANOTHER SCENIC POST-STORM SUNSET OUT THE WINDOW THIS EVENING. TODAY
WAS ANOTHER ACTIVE TSTM DAY, JUST IN DIFFERENT SPOTS - WITH
MARKLEEVILLE AND THE WASHINGTON FIRE AREA SEEING TORRENTIAL RAINS
AND SOME MUDSLIDES. INSTABILITY WAS IMPRESSIVE ON THE 0Z RENO
SOUNDING WITH CAPE RANGING FROM 1200 TO 2300 DEPENDING ON HOW YOU
MEASURE IT.

SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE AT THIS HOUR MAINLY FROM CENTRAL NEVADA
OVER INTO MINERAL AND MONO COUNTIES AS A COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS
CONGEALED INTO A LARGE MASS OF RAIN, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS.
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS OFF TO THE WEST AT A SLOW PACE, AND IT`S NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THESE CELLS COULD REACH THE SIERRA. AM GOING TO
CONTINUE CHANCES FOR TSTMS OVERNIGHT MAINLY SOUTH OF A MARKLEEVILLE
TO GABBS LINE AS GUIDANCE SHOWS ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINING
TROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COUPLED WITH PASSING SHORTWAVES.

REST OF THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED. IN GENERAL LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD ANOTHER ACTIVE TSTM DAY TOMORROW WITH
COPIOUS MOISTURE IN PLACE. ONE NOTE - MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALOFT
INCREASES OVER THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING WHICH COULD HELP GENERATE
CLOUD COVER AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. POSSIBLE BUT UNCERTAIN.
CS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME
COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. LOCAL FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A VORTICITY CENTER MOVING WEST ACROSS THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS AND WEAKER FORCING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NV DELAYED THE
FORMATION OF THE FIRST CELLS UNTIL AFTER 2 PM.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AFTER
3 PM, INITIALLY FAVORING ALPINE AND NORTHERN MONO COUNTIES THEN
BUILDING EAST ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NV MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50 THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOR AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50, COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SPARSE, BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME INCREASED ACTIVITY BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM DUE TO INCREASED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE ZEPHYR, AND OUTFLOWS
FROM THE FIRST ROUND OF CELLS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND OUTFLOW
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE THE MAIN THREATS, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
LOW FOR HEAVY RAIN TO HIT THE SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED FLOODING
YESTERDAY.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP IN SOUTHERN MINERAL AND MONO
COUNTIES AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE EAST.

FOR THURSDAY, THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN CA-WESTERN NV. MODEL SOUNDINGS INCREASE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.25 INCH, SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE WITH INITIAL
CONVECTION LIKELY TO BEGIN A FEW HOURS EARLIER IN THE DAY,
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 10-11 AM FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN SIERRA.
HOWEVER, THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND EARLIER ONSET MAY ALSO LEAD TO
MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AND RAINFALL INTENSITY. BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY, WE ARE NOT
PLANNING ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AREAS THAT ARE MORE
PRONE TO FLOODING DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAIN, STEEP TERRAIN OR
WILDFIRE BURN SCARS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL
IF HEAVIER CELLS DEVELOP.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, SOME CLEARING AND SUBSIDENCE IS
INDICATED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AFTER THE EVENING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN. THIS CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AGAIN ALONG THE SIERRA AND SPREAD
INTO WESTERN NV DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORCING APPEARS
LIMITED WITH SOME CAPPING TO OVERCOME, SO THE FIRST STORMS SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
LOWER VALLEYS OF WEST CENTRAL NV POSSIBLY REACHING 105 DEGREES
AGAIN ON THURSDAY WHERE THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.
THICKER CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT HEATING A BIT, MAINLY IN AREAS SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. THE MOIST AIR MASS WITH AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT
FEW NIGHTS, GENERALLY FROM MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS. MJD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO MAJOR SHIFTS IN THE THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE TWO MODES IN THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL BE WETTER WITH MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHILE THE
SECOND WILL BE DRIER AND TRENDING COOLER BACK TOWARD SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

4TH OF JULY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WRAP MOISTURE
AROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWESTERN
NEVADA. AS A RESULT, PWATS REMAIN ELEVATED WITH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. GFS/EC/NAM ALL SHOW A WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE PATTERN WITH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALSO,
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED ACTIVITY ALONG A
MODERATE ZEPHYR THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
RATHER SLOW RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLASH FLOODING
WHICH IS THE BIGGEST THREAT THIS WEEKEND. THOSE WITH HOLIDAY PLANS
OUTDOORS WILL WANT TO PAY ATTENTION TO WARNING PRODUCTS AS THE
SITUATION MAY CHANGE RAPIDLY. LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT TO
THOSE OUTDOORS AND ON AREA LAKES.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONDITIONS BECOME DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. STILL, THERE IS
AMPLE RESIDUAL MOISTURE SO A MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS WARRANTED. DRY AIR REALLY WORKS IN BY
WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING ALOFT. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY THRU 04Z. CHANCE FOR IMPACT 40
PCT AT KMMH...30 PCT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP/KNFL AND LESS THAN 20
PCT ELSEWHERE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 45
KTS...SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS FRI-SUN DEPENDING ON DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. WALLMANN/BOYD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 012158
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME
COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. LOCAL FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A VORTICITY CENTER MOVING WEST ACROSS THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS AND WEAKER FORCING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NV DELAYED THE
FORMATION OF THE FIRST CELLS UNTIL AFTER 2 PM.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AFTER
3 PM, INITIALLY FAVORING ALPINE AND NORTHERN MONO COUNTIES THEN
BUILDING EAST ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NV MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50 THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOR AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50, COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SPARSE, BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME INCREASED ACTIVITY BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM DUE TO INCREASED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE ZEPHYR, AND OUTFLOWS
FROM THE FIRST ROUND OF CELLS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND OUTFLOW
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE THE MAIN THREATS, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
LOW FOR HEAVY RAIN TO HIT THE SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED FLOODING
YESTERDAY.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP IN SOUTHERN MINERAL AND MONO
COUNTIES AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE EAST.

FOR THURSDAY, THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN CA-WESTERN NV. MODEL SOUNDINGS INCREASE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.25 INCH, SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE WITH INITIAL
CONVECTION LIKELY TO BEGIN A FEW HOURS EARLIER IN THE DAY,
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 10-11 AM FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN SIERRA.
HOWEVER, THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND EARLIER ONSET MAY ALSO LEAD TO
MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AND RAINFALL INTENSITY. BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY, WE ARE NOT
PLANNING ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AREAS THAT ARE MORE
PRONE TO FLOODING DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAIN, STEEP TERRAIN OR
WILDFIRE BURN SCARS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL
IF HEAVIER CELLS DEVELOP.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, SOME CLEARING AND SUBSIDENCE IS
INDICATED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AFTER THE EVENING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN. THIS CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AGAIN ALONG THE SIERRA AND SPREAD
INTO WESTERN NV DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORCING APPEARS
LIMITED WITH SOME CAPPING TO OVERCOME, SO THE FIRST STORMS SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
LOWER VALLEYS OF WEST CENTRAL NV POSSIBLY REACHING 105 DEGREES
AGAIN ON THURSDAY WHERE THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.
THICKER CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT HEATING A BIT, MAINLY IN AREAS SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. THE MOIST AIR MASS WITH AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT
FEW NIGHTS, GENERALLY FROM MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS. MJD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO MAJOR SHIFTS IN THE THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE TWO MODES IN THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL BE WETTER WITH MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHILE THE
SECOND WILL BE DRIER AND TRENDING COOLER BACK TOWARD SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

4TH OF JULY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WRAP MOISTURE
AROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWESTERN
NEVADA. AS A RESULT, PWATS REMAIN ELEVATED WITH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. GFS/EC/NAM ALL SHOW A WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE PATTERN WITH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALSO,
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED ACTIVITY ALONG A
MODERATE ZEPHYR THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
RATHER SLOW RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLASH FLOODING
WHICH IS THE BIGGEST THREAT THIS WEEKEND. THOSE WITH HOLIDAY PLANS
OUTDOORS WILL WANT TO PAY ATTENTION TO WARNING PRODUCTS AS THE
SITUATION MAY CHANGE RAPIDLY. LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT TO
THOSE OUTDOORS AND ON AREA LAKES.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONDITIONS BECOME DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. STILL, THERE IS
AMPLE RESIDUAL MOISTURE SO A MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS WARRANTED. DRY AIR REALLY WORKS IN BY
WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING ALOFT. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY THRU 04Z. CHANCE FOR IMPACT 40
PCT AT KMMH...30 PCT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP/KNFL AND LESS THAN 20
PCT ELSEWHERE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 45
KTS...SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS FRI-SUN DEPENDING ON DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. WALLMANN/BOYD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 012158
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
258 PM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME
COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. LOCAL FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A VORTICITY CENTER MOVING WEST ACROSS THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS AND WEAKER FORCING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NV DELAYED THE
FORMATION OF THE FIRST CELLS UNTIL AFTER 2 PM.

SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING AFTER
3 PM, INITIALLY FAVORING ALPINE AND NORTHERN MONO COUNTIES THEN
BUILDING EAST ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NV MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50 THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOR AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50, COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE MORE SPARSE, BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME INCREASED ACTIVITY BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM DUE TO INCREASED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE ZEPHYR, AND OUTFLOWS
FROM THE FIRST ROUND OF CELLS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND OUTFLOW
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE THE MAIN THREATS, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
LOW FOR HEAVY RAIN TO HIT THE SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED FLOODING
YESTERDAY.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP IN SOUTHERN MINERAL AND MONO
COUNTIES AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE EAST.

FOR THURSDAY, THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN CA-WESTERN NV. MODEL SOUNDINGS INCREASE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.25 INCH, SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE WITH INITIAL
CONVECTION LIKELY TO BEGIN A FEW HOURS EARLIER IN THE DAY,
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 10-11 AM FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN SIERRA.
HOWEVER, THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND EARLIER ONSET MAY ALSO LEAD TO
MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AND RAINFALL INTENSITY. BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY, WE ARE NOT
PLANNING ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT AREAS THAT ARE MORE
PRONE TO FLOODING DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAIN, STEEP TERRAIN OR
WILDFIRE BURN SCARS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL
IF HEAVIER CELLS DEVELOP.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, SOME CLEARING AND SUBSIDENCE IS
INDICATED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AFTER THE EVENING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN. THIS CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO FIRE UP AGAIN ALONG THE SIERRA AND SPREAD
INTO WESTERN NV DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORCING APPEARS
LIMITED WITH SOME CAPPING TO OVERCOME, SO THE FIRST STORMS SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
LOWER VALLEYS OF WEST CENTRAL NV POSSIBLY REACHING 105 DEGREES
AGAIN ON THURSDAY WHERE THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.
THICKER CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT HEATING A BIT, MAINLY IN AREAS SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50. THE MOIST AIR MASS WITH AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT
FEW NIGHTS, GENERALLY FROM MID 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS. MJD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO MAJOR SHIFTS IN THE THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE TWO MODES IN THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL BE WETTER WITH MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHILE THE
SECOND WILL BE DRIER AND TRENDING COOLER BACK TOWARD SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

4TH OF JULY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WRAP MOISTURE
AROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWESTERN
NEVADA. AS A RESULT, PWATS REMAIN ELEVATED WITH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. GFS/EC/NAM ALL SHOW A WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE PATTERN WITH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ALSO,
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED ACTIVITY ALONG A
MODERATE ZEPHYR THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
RATHER SLOW RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLASH FLOODING
WHICH IS THE BIGGEST THREAT THIS WEEKEND. THOSE WITH HOLIDAY PLANS
OUTDOORS WILL WANT TO PAY ATTENTION TO WARNING PRODUCTS AS THE
SITUATION MAY CHANGE RAPIDLY. LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT TO
THOSE OUTDOORS AND ON AREA LAKES.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONDITIONS BECOME DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. STILL, THERE IS
AMPLE RESIDUAL MOISTURE SO A MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FROM MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS WARRANTED. DRY AIR REALLY WORKS IN BY
WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING ALOFT. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY THRU 04Z. CHANCE FOR IMPACT 40
PCT AT KMMH...30 PCT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP/KNFL AND LESS THAN 20
PCT ELSEWHERE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 45
KTS...SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS FRI-SUN DEPENDING ON DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. WALLMANN/BOYD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 010954
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
254 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUES THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND WILL ADD AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING OVER THE
100+ DEGREE TEMPS WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. AREAS SUCH AS
LOVELOCK AND FALLON MAY SEE HIGHS EXCEED 105 DEGREES TODAY AND
TOMORROW WHICH HAS PROMPTED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE GENERAL
ROUTINE OF YESTERDAY WITH INITIATION ACROSS THE SIERRA MAINLY OVER
MONO AND ALPINE COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN DRIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS POINT WHERE NEW STORM
FORMATION WILL BE DICTATED BY STORM OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS WHICH ARE
ERRATIC AND UNPREDICTABLE. A DCAPE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY
WITH ROUGHLY 1000-1400 J/KG NORTH OF HWY 50 AND GENERALLY BELOW
800 J/KG SOUTH OF HWY 50. AS A RESULT, EXPECTING OUTFLOW WINDS
NORTH OF HWY 50 TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER (UP TO 50 MPH) WHICH WILL
PROVIDE BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR NEW STORM INITIATION. AS WITH
THE STORMS YESTERDAY, FLASH FLOODING, STRONG WIND GUSTS, SMALL
HAIL, ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND EVEN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE
POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THURSDAY AND WE WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER
INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT.
STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY FOR THURSDAY WILL BE HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER WE START WITH DURING THE DAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT SOME IF ENOUGH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS TO
KEEP THE SURFACE FROM SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE.
THIS ALSO HOLDS TRUE FOR FRIDAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING THIS
WARM WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION ESPECIALLY WITH
THE LOWERING LFCS THAT WILL RESULT FROM THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
WEEKEND BEING ACTIVE WITH DRYING FOR NEXT WEEK. GFS/EC AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PW REACHING OVER 1
INCH SATURDAY. GFS/EC ALSO SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WHICH COULD ENHANCE THINGS. BIGGEST THREAT
WOULD BE FLASH FLOODING WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS. ONE DOWN SIDE COULD
BE THAT CLOUD COVER MAY BE EXTENSIVE CUTTING INSTABILITY, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY, A LITTLE DRYING TO TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE WAVE, BUT PW WILL
STILL BE NEAR 1 INCH. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH
CONTINUED SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINING
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...THE GFS AND EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING
SHOWING DRYING S-SW FLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FLOW IS NOT
STRONG SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SCOUR THE MOISTURE OUT. HAVE
GONE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ON MONDAY ALL AREAS WITH CONVECTION
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY...FIRST DUE TO CLOUD COVER SAT/SUN THEN COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY FM 20-04Z. CHANCE FOR IMPACT 40 PCT
AT KMMH...30 PCT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP/KNFL AND LESS THAN 20 PCT
ELSEWHERE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS...SMALL
HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY THURSDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
FRI-SUN DEPENDING ON DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. WALLMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY
     NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 010954
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
254 AM PDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUES THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND WILL ADD AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING OVER THE
100+ DEGREE TEMPS WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. AREAS SUCH AS
LOVELOCK AND FALLON MAY SEE HIGHS EXCEED 105 DEGREES TODAY AND
TOMORROW WHICH HAS PROMPTED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE GENERAL
ROUTINE OF YESTERDAY WITH INITIATION ACROSS THE SIERRA MAINLY OVER
MONO AND ALPINE COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN DRIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IT IS AT THIS POINT WHERE NEW STORM
FORMATION WILL BE DICTATED BY STORM OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS WHICH ARE
ERRATIC AND UNPREDICTABLE. A DCAPE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY
WITH ROUGHLY 1000-1400 J/KG NORTH OF HWY 50 AND GENERALLY BELOW
800 J/KG SOUTH OF HWY 50. AS A RESULT, EXPECTING OUTFLOW WINDS
NORTH OF HWY 50 TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER (UP TO 50 MPH) WHICH WILL
PROVIDE BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR NEW STORM INITIATION. AS WITH
THE STORMS YESTERDAY, FLASH FLOODING, STRONG WIND GUSTS, SMALL
HAIL, ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND EVEN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE
POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THURSDAY AND WE WILL RECEIVE ANOTHER
INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT.
STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY FOR THURSDAY WILL BE HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER WE START WITH DURING THE DAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT SOME IF ENOUGH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS TO
KEEP THE SURFACE FROM SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE.
THIS ALSO HOLDS TRUE FOR FRIDAY BUT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING THIS
WARM WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO TRIGGER CONVECTION ESPECIALLY WITH
THE LOWERING LFCS THAT WILL RESULT FROM THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
WEEKEND BEING ACTIVE WITH DRYING FOR NEXT WEEK. GFS/EC AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PW REACHING OVER 1
INCH SATURDAY. GFS/EC ALSO SHOW A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WHICH COULD ENHANCE THINGS. BIGGEST THREAT
WOULD BE FLASH FLOODING WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS. ONE DOWN SIDE COULD
BE THAT CLOUD COVER MAY BE EXTENSIVE CUTTING INSTABILITY, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY, A LITTLE DRYING TO TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE WAVE, BUT PW WILL
STILL BE NEAR 1 INCH. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH
CONTINUED SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINING
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...THE GFS AND EC ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING
SHOWING DRYING S-SW FLOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FLOW IS NOT
STRONG SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SCOUR THE MOISTURE OUT. HAVE
GONE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ON MONDAY ALL AREAS WITH CONVECTION
SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL ALSO COOL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JULY...FIRST DUE TO CLOUD COVER SAT/SUN THEN COOLING TEMPS
ALOFT. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY FM 20-04Z. CHANCE FOR IMPACT 40 PCT
AT KMMH...30 PCT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP/KNFL AND LESS THAN 20 PCT
ELSEWHERE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS...SMALL
HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUTSIDE OF STORMS.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY THURSDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
FRI-SUN DEPENDING ON DAYTIME CLOUD COVER. WALLMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY
     NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 010351
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
851 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A FEW QUICK NOTES FOR THE EVENING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PERSIST
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND PARTS OF EASTERN CALIFORNIA WITH STORMS
CONTINUALLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING OFF THESE BOUNDARIES. SLOW
STORM MOTIONS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAVE LED TO
HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING THE
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH MOST
STORMS DISSIPATING AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

CURRENTLY A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR AREAS EAST OF DAYTON
TO ABOUT SILVER SPRINGS WHILE A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTH HILLS...SUN VALLEY AND SPANISH SPRINGS PORTIONS OF THE
RENO METRO AREA. WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING NORTH INTO THIS
REGION AGAIN WE WILL KEEP THIS WANING AND ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...

GOOD CLEARING THIS MORNING HAS AGAIN ALLOWED FOR SIGNIFICANT
SOLAR HEATING WITH KRNO ALREADY REACHING 100. COMBINE THIS WITH
HIGH PWATS (NEAR AN INCH), AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AN INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TODAY. CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND A
CAP ABOVE 500 MB WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY TODAY. IF CLOUD COVER OCCURS TOO EARLY, IT WILL INHIBIT
STORM DEVELOPMENT. A CAP ABOVE 500 MB (EVIDENT IN THE 12Z
SOUNDING) COULD EITHER INHIBIT OR INTENSIFY LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING WHETHER CONVECTION IS ABLE TO OVERCOME IT.

CONVECTION STARTED EVEN EARLIER TODAY WITH CELLS FORMING OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS BY NOON. DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE EASTERN SIERRA AND MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES BEFORE MOVING NORTH
INTO THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE. RENO AND CARSON CITY WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THEN YESTERDAY.
EVEN THOUGH GENERAL STORM FLOW SHOULD BE AROUND 15KTS, WITH PWATS
NEAR MAX CLIMATOLOGY AND TEMPS AROUND 100 DEGREES, LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR THE WASHINGTON FIRE
IN ALPINE COUNTY.

WEDNESDAY WE STAY IN A SIMILAR THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WITH MODELS
INDICATING ANOTHER WAVE OF DRIER AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS THAT
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW OVERNIGHT CLEARING AND GOOD SOLAR HEATING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE. AS LONG AS OVERNIGHT CLEARING CONTINUES SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND NATURE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY WARM THIS WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGITS IN WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 80`S TO LOW
90`S THE SIERRA. IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA, HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
STAY ABOVE 105 DEGREES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
OVERNIGHT LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER
60`S TO LOW 70`S WHICH INCREASES THE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES. HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA. AREAS OUTSIDE THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK,
EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. IF YOUR PLANS THIS WEEK INVOLVE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES, TAKE THE HEAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO
ACCOUNT. TOLBY

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. MID RANGE
MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DEPICTING HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES MONDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED WITH LITTLE RELIEF
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRIDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST FOR
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH WESTERN NEVADA TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE 100 DEGREES; SIERRA TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90
DEGREES. CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NEVADA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER IN THE LOW/MID 90S; SIERRA BACK INTO
LOW 80S.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STREAM AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE WORST FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHERE
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. AREA BURN SCARS WILL BE VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLOODING INCLUDING THE ROUND FIRE AND WASHINGTON FIRE SCARS.
MONDAY APPEARS DRIER AS MAIN RIDGING EDGES EAST INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SIERRA EARLY TUESDAY INCREASING CHANCES
OF STORMS AGAIN. BOYD

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT LCL MVFR VIS IN TSRA NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY.
TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE KMMH-KTVL-KCXP WITH A 20-30
PCT CHANCE, WHILE KTRK/KRNO ARE CLOSER TO 15 PCT. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 KTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SW WINDS
GUSTS TO 20 KTS NORTH OF I-80 20-03Z TODAY OTHERWISE WINDS ARE
LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR TSTMS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE STORMS EXPAND NORTH
TO THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WALLMANN/BOYD

FIRE WEATHER...

IT WILL BE A HOT WEEK AHEAD ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF A SUSANVILLE-WINNEMUCCA LINE AND
WILL BE PRIMARILY WET. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD TO THE OREGON BORDER BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ONE AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE THE LASSEN AND PLUMAS NATIONAL FORESTS ON
THURSDAY AS STORMS MAY BE MORE OF A WET/DRY HYBRID NATURE AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE DRIER AIR ACROSS THESE AREAS. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT THIS WEEK IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO OUTFLOWS OF THE
MAGNITUDE SEEN THIS PAST SATURDAY. ESTIMATE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH, OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK.

AS MOISTURE DRAMATICALLY INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, HEAVIER RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IF THE RIGHT CONDITIONS
COME TOGETHER. THE WASHINGTON FIRE BURN SCAR IS EXTREMELY SUSCEPTIBLE
TO FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. DJ


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 010351
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
851 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A FEW QUICK NOTES FOR THE EVENING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PERSIST
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND PARTS OF EASTERN CALIFORNIA WITH STORMS
CONTINUALLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING OFF THESE BOUNDARIES. SLOW
STORM MOTIONS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAVE LED TO
HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING THE
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH MOST
STORMS DISSIPATING AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

CURRENTLY A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR AREAS EAST OF DAYTON
TO ABOUT SILVER SPRINGS WHILE A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTH HILLS...SUN VALLEY AND SPANISH SPRINGS PORTIONS OF THE
RENO METRO AREA. WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING NORTH INTO THIS
REGION AGAIN WE WILL KEEP THIS WANING AND ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...

GOOD CLEARING THIS MORNING HAS AGAIN ALLOWED FOR SIGNIFICANT
SOLAR HEATING WITH KRNO ALREADY REACHING 100. COMBINE THIS WITH
HIGH PWATS (NEAR AN INCH), AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AN INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TODAY. CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND A
CAP ABOVE 500 MB WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY TODAY. IF CLOUD COVER OCCURS TOO EARLY, IT WILL INHIBIT
STORM DEVELOPMENT. A CAP ABOVE 500 MB (EVIDENT IN THE 12Z
SOUNDING) COULD EITHER INHIBIT OR INTENSIFY LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING WHETHER CONVECTION IS ABLE TO OVERCOME IT.

CONVECTION STARTED EVEN EARLIER TODAY WITH CELLS FORMING OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS BY NOON. DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE EASTERN SIERRA AND MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES BEFORE MOVING NORTH
INTO THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE. RENO AND CARSON CITY WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THEN YESTERDAY.
EVEN THOUGH GENERAL STORM FLOW SHOULD BE AROUND 15KTS, WITH PWATS
NEAR MAX CLIMATOLOGY AND TEMPS AROUND 100 DEGREES, LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR THE WASHINGTON FIRE
IN ALPINE COUNTY.

WEDNESDAY WE STAY IN A SIMILAR THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WITH MODELS
INDICATING ANOTHER WAVE OF DRIER AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS THAT
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW OVERNIGHT CLEARING AND GOOD SOLAR HEATING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE. AS LONG AS OVERNIGHT CLEARING CONTINUES SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND NATURE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY WARM THIS WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGITS IN WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 80`S TO LOW
90`S THE SIERRA. IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA, HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
STAY ABOVE 105 DEGREES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
OVERNIGHT LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER
60`S TO LOW 70`S WHICH INCREASES THE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES. HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA. AREAS OUTSIDE THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK,
EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. IF YOUR PLANS THIS WEEK INVOLVE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES, TAKE THE HEAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO
ACCOUNT. TOLBY

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. MID RANGE
MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DEPICTING HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES MONDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED WITH LITTLE RELIEF
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRIDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST FOR
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH WESTERN NEVADA TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE 100 DEGREES; SIERRA TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90
DEGREES. CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NEVADA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER IN THE LOW/MID 90S; SIERRA BACK INTO
LOW 80S.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STREAM AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE WORST FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHERE
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. AREA BURN SCARS WILL BE VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLOODING INCLUDING THE ROUND FIRE AND WASHINGTON FIRE SCARS.
MONDAY APPEARS DRIER AS MAIN RIDGING EDGES EAST INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SIERRA EARLY TUESDAY INCREASING CHANCES
OF STORMS AGAIN. BOYD

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT LCL MVFR VIS IN TSRA NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY.
TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE KMMH-KTVL-KCXP WITH A 20-30
PCT CHANCE, WHILE KTRK/KRNO ARE CLOSER TO 15 PCT. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 KTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SW WINDS
GUSTS TO 20 KTS NORTH OF I-80 20-03Z TODAY OTHERWISE WINDS ARE
LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR TSTMS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE STORMS EXPAND NORTH
TO THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WALLMANN/BOYD

FIRE WEATHER...

IT WILL BE A HOT WEEK AHEAD ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF A SUSANVILLE-WINNEMUCCA LINE AND
WILL BE PRIMARILY WET. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD TO THE OREGON BORDER BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ONE AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE THE LASSEN AND PLUMAS NATIONAL FORESTS ON
THURSDAY AS STORMS MAY BE MORE OF A WET/DRY HYBRID NATURE AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE DRIER AIR ACROSS THESE AREAS. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT THIS WEEK IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO OUTFLOWS OF THE
MAGNITUDE SEEN THIS PAST SATURDAY. ESTIMATE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH, OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK.

AS MOISTURE DRAMATICALLY INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, HEAVIER RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IF THE RIGHT CONDITIONS
COME TOGETHER. THE WASHINGTON FIRE BURN SCAR IS EXTREMELY SUSCEPTIBLE
TO FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. DJ


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 010351
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
851 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A FEW QUICK NOTES FOR THE EVENING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PERSIST
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND PARTS OF EASTERN CALIFORNIA WITH STORMS
CONTINUALLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING OFF THESE BOUNDARIES. SLOW
STORM MOTIONS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAVE LED TO
HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING THE
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH MOST
STORMS DISSIPATING AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

CURRENTLY A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR AREAS EAST OF DAYTON
TO ABOUT SILVER SPRINGS WHILE A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTH HILLS...SUN VALLEY AND SPANISH SPRINGS PORTIONS OF THE
RENO METRO AREA. WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING NORTH INTO THIS
REGION AGAIN WE WILL KEEP THIS WANING AND ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...

GOOD CLEARING THIS MORNING HAS AGAIN ALLOWED FOR SIGNIFICANT
SOLAR HEATING WITH KRNO ALREADY REACHING 100. COMBINE THIS WITH
HIGH PWATS (NEAR AN INCH), AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AN INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TODAY. CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND A
CAP ABOVE 500 MB WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY TODAY. IF CLOUD COVER OCCURS TOO EARLY, IT WILL INHIBIT
STORM DEVELOPMENT. A CAP ABOVE 500 MB (EVIDENT IN THE 12Z
SOUNDING) COULD EITHER INHIBIT OR INTENSIFY LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING WHETHER CONVECTION IS ABLE TO OVERCOME IT.

CONVECTION STARTED EVEN EARLIER TODAY WITH CELLS FORMING OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS BY NOON. DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE EASTERN SIERRA AND MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES BEFORE MOVING NORTH
INTO THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE. RENO AND CARSON CITY WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THEN YESTERDAY.
EVEN THOUGH GENERAL STORM FLOW SHOULD BE AROUND 15KTS, WITH PWATS
NEAR MAX CLIMATOLOGY AND TEMPS AROUND 100 DEGREES, LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR THE WASHINGTON FIRE
IN ALPINE COUNTY.

WEDNESDAY WE STAY IN A SIMILAR THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WITH MODELS
INDICATING ANOTHER WAVE OF DRIER AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS THAT
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW OVERNIGHT CLEARING AND GOOD SOLAR HEATING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE. AS LONG AS OVERNIGHT CLEARING CONTINUES SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND NATURE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY WARM THIS WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGITS IN WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 80`S TO LOW
90`S THE SIERRA. IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA, HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
STAY ABOVE 105 DEGREES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
OVERNIGHT LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER
60`S TO LOW 70`S WHICH INCREASES THE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES. HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA. AREAS OUTSIDE THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK,
EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. IF YOUR PLANS THIS WEEK INVOLVE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES, TAKE THE HEAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO
ACCOUNT. TOLBY

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. MID RANGE
MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DEPICTING HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES MONDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED WITH LITTLE RELIEF
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRIDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST FOR
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH WESTERN NEVADA TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE 100 DEGREES; SIERRA TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90
DEGREES. CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NEVADA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER IN THE LOW/MID 90S; SIERRA BACK INTO
LOW 80S.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STREAM AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE WORST FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHERE
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. AREA BURN SCARS WILL BE VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLOODING INCLUDING THE ROUND FIRE AND WASHINGTON FIRE SCARS.
MONDAY APPEARS DRIER AS MAIN RIDGING EDGES EAST INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SIERRA EARLY TUESDAY INCREASING CHANCES
OF STORMS AGAIN. BOYD

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT LCL MVFR VIS IN TSRA NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY.
TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE KMMH-KTVL-KCXP WITH A 20-30
PCT CHANCE, WHILE KTRK/KRNO ARE CLOSER TO 15 PCT. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 KTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SW WINDS
GUSTS TO 20 KTS NORTH OF I-80 20-03Z TODAY OTHERWISE WINDS ARE
LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR TSTMS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE STORMS EXPAND NORTH
TO THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WALLMANN/BOYD

FIRE WEATHER...

IT WILL BE A HOT WEEK AHEAD ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF A SUSANVILLE-WINNEMUCCA LINE AND
WILL BE PRIMARILY WET. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD TO THE OREGON BORDER BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ONE AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE THE LASSEN AND PLUMAS NATIONAL FORESTS ON
THURSDAY AS STORMS MAY BE MORE OF A WET/DRY HYBRID NATURE AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE DRIER AIR ACROSS THESE AREAS. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT THIS WEEK IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO OUTFLOWS OF THE
MAGNITUDE SEEN THIS PAST SATURDAY. ESTIMATE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH, OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK.

AS MOISTURE DRAMATICALLY INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, HEAVIER RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IF THE RIGHT CONDITIONS
COME TOGETHER. THE WASHINGTON FIRE BURN SCAR IS EXTREMELY SUSCEPTIBLE
TO FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. DJ


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 010351
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
851 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A FEW QUICK NOTES FOR THE EVENING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PERSIST
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND PARTS OF EASTERN CALIFORNIA WITH STORMS
CONTINUALLY DEVELOPING AND MOVING OFF THESE BOUNDARIES. SLOW
STORM MOTIONS EARLIER IN THE DAY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAVE LED TO
HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING THE
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION WITH MOST
STORMS DISSIPATING AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

CURRENTLY A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS FOR AREAS EAST OF DAYTON
TO ABOUT SILVER SPRINGS WHILE A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTH HILLS...SUN VALLEY AND SPANISH SPRINGS PORTIONS OF THE
RENO METRO AREA. WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING NORTH INTO THIS
REGION AGAIN WE WILL KEEP THIS WANING AND ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. 20

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...

GOOD CLEARING THIS MORNING HAS AGAIN ALLOWED FOR SIGNIFICANT
SOLAR HEATING WITH KRNO ALREADY REACHING 100. COMBINE THIS WITH
HIGH PWATS (NEAR AN INCH), AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AN INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TODAY. CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND A
CAP ABOVE 500 MB WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY TODAY. IF CLOUD COVER OCCURS TOO EARLY, IT WILL INHIBIT
STORM DEVELOPMENT. A CAP ABOVE 500 MB (EVIDENT IN THE 12Z
SOUNDING) COULD EITHER INHIBIT OR INTENSIFY LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING WHETHER CONVECTION IS ABLE TO OVERCOME IT.

CONVECTION STARTED EVEN EARLIER TODAY WITH CELLS FORMING OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS BY NOON. DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE EASTERN SIERRA AND MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES BEFORE MOVING NORTH
INTO THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE. RENO AND CARSON CITY WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THEN YESTERDAY.
EVEN THOUGH GENERAL STORM FLOW SHOULD BE AROUND 15KTS, WITH PWATS
NEAR MAX CLIMATOLOGY AND TEMPS AROUND 100 DEGREES, LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR THE WASHINGTON FIRE
IN ALPINE COUNTY.

WEDNESDAY WE STAY IN A SIMILAR THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WITH MODELS
INDICATING ANOTHER WAVE OF DRIER AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS THAT
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW OVERNIGHT CLEARING AND GOOD SOLAR HEATING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE. AS LONG AS OVERNIGHT CLEARING CONTINUES SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND NATURE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY WARM THIS WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGITS IN WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 80`S TO LOW
90`S THE SIERRA. IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA, HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
STAY ABOVE 105 DEGREES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
OVERNIGHT LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER
60`S TO LOW 70`S WHICH INCREASES THE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES. HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA. AREAS OUTSIDE THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK,
EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. IF YOUR PLANS THIS WEEK INVOLVE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES, TAKE THE HEAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO
ACCOUNT. TOLBY

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. MID RANGE
MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DEPICTING HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES MONDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED WITH LITTLE RELIEF
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRIDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST FOR
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH WESTERN NEVADA TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE 100 DEGREES; SIERRA TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90
DEGREES. CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NEVADA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER IN THE LOW/MID 90S; SIERRA BACK INTO
LOW 80S.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STREAM AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE WORST FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHERE
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. AREA BURN SCARS WILL BE VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLOODING INCLUDING THE ROUND FIRE AND WASHINGTON FIRE SCARS.
MONDAY APPEARS DRIER AS MAIN RIDGING EDGES EAST INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SIERRA EARLY TUESDAY INCREASING CHANCES
OF STORMS AGAIN. BOYD

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT LCL MVFR VIS IN TSRA NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY.
TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE KMMH-KTVL-KCXP WITH A 20-30
PCT CHANCE, WHILE KTRK/KRNO ARE CLOSER TO 15 PCT. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 KTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SW WINDS
GUSTS TO 20 KTS NORTH OF I-80 20-03Z TODAY OTHERWISE WINDS ARE
LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR TSTMS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE STORMS EXPAND NORTH
TO THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WALLMANN/BOYD

FIRE WEATHER...

IT WILL BE A HOT WEEK AHEAD ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF A SUSANVILLE-WINNEMUCCA LINE AND
WILL BE PRIMARILY WET. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD TO THE OREGON BORDER BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ONE AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE THE LASSEN AND PLUMAS NATIONAL FORESTS ON
THURSDAY AS STORMS MAY BE MORE OF A WET/DRY HYBRID NATURE AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE DRIER AIR ACROSS THESE AREAS. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT THIS WEEK IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO OUTFLOWS OF THE
MAGNITUDE SEEN THIS PAST SATURDAY. ESTIMATE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH, OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK.

AS MOISTURE DRAMATICALLY INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, HEAVIER RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IF THE RIGHT CONDITIONS
COME TOGETHER. THE WASHINGTON FIRE BURN SCAR IS EXTREMELY SUSCEPTIBLE
TO FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. DJ


&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 302133
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
233 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

GOOD CLEARING THIS MORNING HAS AGAIN ALLOWED FOR SIGNIFICANT
SOLAR HEATING WITH KRNO ALREADY REACHING 100. COMBINE THIS WITH
HIGH PWATS (NEAR AN INCH), AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AN INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TODAY. CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND A
CAP ABOVE 500 MB WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY TODAY. IF CLOUD COVER OCCURS TOO EARLY, IT WILL INHIBIT
STORM DEVELOPMENT. A CAP ABOVE 500 MB (EVIDENT IN THE 12Z
SOUNDING) COULD EITHER INHIBIT OR INTENSIFY LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING WHETHER CONVECTION IS ABLE TO OVERCOME IT.

CONVECTION STARTED EVEN EARLIER TODAY WITH CELLS FORMING OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS BY NOON. DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE EASTERN SIERRA AND MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES BEFORE MOVING NORTH
INTO THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE. RENO AND CARSON CITY WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THEN YESTERDAY.
EVEN THOUGH GENERAL STORM FLOW SHOULD BE AROUND 15KTS, WITH PWATS
NEAR MAX CLIMATOLOGY AND TEMPS AROUND 100 DEGREES, LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR THE WASHINGTON FIRE
IN ALPINE COUNTY.

WEDNESDAY WE STAY IN A SIMILAR THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WITH MODELS
INDICATING ANOTHER WAVE OF DRIER AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS THAT
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW OVERNIGHT CLEARING AND GOOD SOLAR HEATING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE. AS LONG AS OVERNIGHT CLEARING CONTINUES SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND NATURE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY WARM THIS WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGITS IN WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 80`S TO LOW
90`S THE SIERRA. IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA, HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
STAY ABOVE 105 DEGREES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
OVERNIGHT LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER
60`S TO LOW 70`S WHICH INCREASES THE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES. HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA. AREAS OUTSIDE THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK,
EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. IF YOUR PLANS THIS WEEK INVOLVE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES, TAKE THE HEAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO
ACCOUNT. TOLBY


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. MID RANGE
MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DEPICTING HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES MONDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED WITH LITTLE RELIEF
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRIDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST FOR
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH WESTERN NEVADA TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE 100 DEGREES; SIERRA TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90
DEGREES. CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NEVADA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER IN THE LOW/MID 90S; SIERRA BACK INTO
LOW 80S.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STREAM AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE WORST FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHERE
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. AREA BURN SCARS WILL BE VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLOODING INCLUDING THE ROUND FIRE AND WASHINGTON FIRE SCARS.
MONDAY APPEARS DRIER AS MAIN RIDGING EDGES EAST INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SIERRA EARLY TUESDAY INCREASING CHANCES
OF STORMS AGAIN. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT LCL MVFR VIS IN TSRA NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY.
TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE KMMH-KTVL-KCXP WITH A 20-30
PCT CHANCE, WHILE KTRK/KRNO ARE CLOSER TO 15 PCT. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 KTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SW WINDS
GUSTS TO 20 KTS NORTH OF I-80 20-03Z TODAY OTHERWISE WINDS ARE
LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR TSTMS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE STORMS EXPAND NORTH
TO THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WALLMANN/BOYD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

IT WILL BE A HOT WEEK AHEAD ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF A SUSANVILLE-WINNEMUCCA LINE AND
WILL BE PRIMARILY WET. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD TO THE OREGON BORDER BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ONE AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE THE LASSEN AND PLUMAS NATIONAL FORESTS ON
THURSDAY AS STORMS MAY BE MORE OF A WET/DRY HYBRID NATURE AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE DRIER AIR ACROSS THESE AREAS. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT THIS WEEK IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO OUTFLOWS OF THE
MAGNITUDE SEEN THIS PAST SATURDAY. ESTIMATE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH, OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK.

AS MOISTURE DRAMATICALLY INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, HEAVIER RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IF THE RIGHT CONDITIONS
COME TOGETHER. THE WASHINGTON FIRE BURN SCAR IS EXTREMELY SUSCEPTIBLE
TO FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 302133
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
233 PM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

GOOD CLEARING THIS MORNING HAS AGAIN ALLOWED FOR SIGNIFICANT
SOLAR HEATING WITH KRNO ALREADY REACHING 100. COMBINE THIS WITH
HIGH PWATS (NEAR AN INCH), AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AN INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TODAY. CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND A
CAP ABOVE 500 MB WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY TODAY. IF CLOUD COVER OCCURS TOO EARLY, IT WILL INHIBIT
STORM DEVELOPMENT. A CAP ABOVE 500 MB (EVIDENT IN THE 12Z
SOUNDING) COULD EITHER INHIBIT OR INTENSIFY LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING WHETHER CONVECTION IS ABLE TO OVERCOME IT.

CONVECTION STARTED EVEN EARLIER TODAY WITH CELLS FORMING OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS BY NOON. DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
THE EASTERN SIERRA AND MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES BEFORE MOVING NORTH
INTO THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE. RENO AND CARSON CITY WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THEN YESTERDAY.
EVEN THOUGH GENERAL STORM FLOW SHOULD BE AROUND 15KTS, WITH PWATS
NEAR MAX CLIMATOLOGY AND TEMPS AROUND 100 DEGREES, LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR THE WASHINGTON FIRE
IN ALPINE COUNTY.

WEDNESDAY WE STAY IN A SIMILAR THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WITH MODELS
INDICATING ANOTHER WAVE OF DRIER AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS THAT
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW OVERNIGHT CLEARING AND GOOD SOLAR HEATING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE. AS LONG AS OVERNIGHT CLEARING CONTINUES SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND NATURE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
BELOW.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY WARM THIS WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGITS IN WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 80`S TO LOW
90`S THE SIERRA. IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA, HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
STAY ABOVE 105 DEGREES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
OVERNIGHT LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER
60`S TO LOW 70`S WHICH INCREASES THE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES. HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA. AREAS OUTSIDE THE HEAT ADVISORY
WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK,
EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. IF YOUR PLANS THIS WEEK INVOLVE OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES, TAKE THE HEAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO
ACCOUNT. TOLBY


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. MID RANGE
MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DEPICTING HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES MONDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED WITH LITTLE RELIEF
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM. FRIDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST FOR
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH WESTERN NEVADA TEMPERATURES AT AND
ABOVE 100 DEGREES; SIERRA TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90
DEGREES. CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NEVADA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER IN THE LOW/MID 90S; SIERRA BACK INTO
LOW 80S.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STREAM AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE WORST FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHERE
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. AREA BURN SCARS WILL BE VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLOODING INCLUDING THE ROUND FIRE AND WASHINGTON FIRE SCARS.
MONDAY APPEARS DRIER AS MAIN RIDGING EDGES EAST INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SIERRA EARLY TUESDAY INCREASING CHANCES
OF STORMS AGAIN. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT LCL MVFR VIS IN TSRA NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY.
TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE KMMH-KTVL-KCXP WITH A 20-30
PCT CHANCE, WHILE KTRK/KRNO ARE CLOSER TO 15 PCT. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40 KTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SW WINDS
GUSTS TO 20 KTS NORTH OF I-80 20-03Z TODAY OTHERWISE WINDS ARE
LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR TSTMS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE STORMS EXPAND NORTH
TO THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WALLMANN/BOYD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

IT WILL BE A HOT WEEK AHEAD ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF A SUSANVILLE-WINNEMUCCA LINE AND
WILL BE PRIMARILY WET. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD TO THE OREGON BORDER BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ONE AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE THE LASSEN AND PLUMAS NATIONAL FORESTS ON
THURSDAY AS STORMS MAY BE MORE OF A WET/DRY HYBRID NATURE AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE DRIER AIR ACROSS THESE AREAS. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALWAYS A CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT THIS WEEK IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE TO OUTFLOWS OF THE
MAGNITUDE SEEN THIS PAST SATURDAY. ESTIMATE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH, OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK.

AS MOISTURE DRAMATICALLY INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, HEAVIER RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IF THE RIGHT CONDITIONS
COME TOGETHER. THE WASHINGTON FIRE BURN SCAR IS EXTREMELY SUSCEPTIBLE
TO FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ004.

CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




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