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000
FXUS65 KREV 181009
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
309 AM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH THIS
MORNING`S ISSUANCE. A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER OREGON
WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
AXIS WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF MID-LEVEL COOLING BY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE NOT WAVERED IN
BUILDING CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
HRRR NOW SHOWS SIGNS OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE INCOMING COOLING/DE-STABILIZATION ALOFT AND WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, I WOULD SUSPECT HIGH-BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE CREST. THE SREF
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES HAVE ACTUALLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY, SO I
HAVE THROWN IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

SUNDAY, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE MID-AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED TO NEAR/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FROM RIGHT NEAR THE CREST AND
FOR AREAS ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA. THIS IS DUE TO LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL TEND TO PUSH ANY CONVECTION WEST
OF THE CREST.

ON MONDAY THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL DROP OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER OREGON. THIS WILL SET UP
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA.
THIS MAY ALLOW ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA TO
WORK THEIR WAY INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA BY EARLY EVENING. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE MAIN FEATURE FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH BY THURSDAY. THEN ANOTHER
UPPER LOW MAY MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL, EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MOST DAYS WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND KEEPING THE NEXT UPPER LOW AS AN UPPER WAVE
THAT BRUSHES THE NORTH. THE EC IS SLOWER WITH ANOTHER WAVE INTO
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW, THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLES SHOW MUCH
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE EC SOLUTION SO WILL LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION.

TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT THUNDERSTORMS AS IT WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY AND LIKELY HAVE THE MOST SUN AS THE LOW REMAINS
OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE STORMS TO START NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THEN
SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO WESTERN NEVADA. WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE AT SHOWERS AS THE LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL CA. HOWEVER,
MORE CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THURSDAY,
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NEVADA WITH MORE SHOWERS. FRIDAY, THE EC
SHOWS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IN GENERAL KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE BEST CHANCES STILL WED, BUT THAT MAY CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

TEMPS WILL START ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THEN FALL TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR WED-FRI. WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR
EITHER EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS/STORMS. AS FAR
AS PRECIP AMOUNTS, SINCE IT WILL BE SHOWERY IT IS VERY HARD TO PIN
DOWN, ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH THROUGH THE PERIOD IS
POSSIBLE IF SHOWERS/STORMS KEEP HITTING THE SAME AREA. SNOW LEVELS
WILL ALSO FALL, BUT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION TO BE LIMITED TO AREAS
ABOVE 8000 FEET. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST 21-03Z TODAY AND SUNDAY.
WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 181009
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
309 AM PDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH THIS
MORNING`S ISSUANCE. A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER OREGON
WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
AXIS WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF MID-LEVEL COOLING BY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE NOT WAVERED IN
BUILDING CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
HRRR NOW SHOWS SIGNS OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE INCOMING COOLING/DE-STABILIZATION ALOFT AND WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, I WOULD SUSPECT HIGH-BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE CREST. THE SREF
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES HAVE ACTUALLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY, SO I
HAVE THROWN IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

SUNDAY, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE MID-AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED TO NEAR/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FROM RIGHT NEAR THE CREST AND
FOR AREAS ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA. THIS IS DUE TO LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL TEND TO PUSH ANY CONVECTION WEST
OF THE CREST.

ON MONDAY THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL DROP OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER OREGON. THIS WILL SET UP
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA.
THIS MAY ALLOW ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA TO
WORK THEIR WAY INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA BY EARLY EVENING. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE MAIN FEATURE FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH BY THURSDAY. THEN ANOTHER
UPPER LOW MAY MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL, EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MOST DAYS WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND KEEPING THE NEXT UPPER LOW AS AN UPPER WAVE
THAT BRUSHES THE NORTH. THE EC IS SLOWER WITH ANOTHER WAVE INTO
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW, THE GFS/EC ENSEMBLES SHOW MUCH
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE EC SOLUTION SO WILL LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION.

TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT THUNDERSTORMS AS IT WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY AND LIKELY HAVE THE MOST SUN AS THE LOW REMAINS
OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE STORMS TO START NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THEN
SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO WESTERN NEVADA. WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE AT SHOWERS AS THE LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL CA. HOWEVER,
MORE CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THURSDAY,
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NEVADA WITH MORE SHOWERS. FRIDAY, THE EC
SHOWS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. IN GENERAL KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE BEST CHANCES STILL WED, BUT THAT MAY CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

TEMPS WILL START ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THEN FALL TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR WED-FRI. WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR
EITHER EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS/STORMS. AS FAR
AS PRECIP AMOUNTS, SINCE IT WILL BE SHOWERY IT IS VERY HARD TO PIN
DOWN, ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH THROUGH THE PERIOD IS
POSSIBLE IF SHOWERS/STORMS KEEP HITTING THE SAME AREA. SNOW LEVELS
WILL ALSO FALL, BUT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION TO BE LIMITED TO AREAS
ABOVE 8000 FEET. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST 21-03Z TODAY AND SUNDAY.
WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 171959
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1259 PM PDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA THIS
WEEKEND. A MUCH COLDER LOW MAY MOVE INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TODAY. WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA CREST THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE KEEPING
THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OREGON THROUGH THE WEEKEND
LEAVING A LIGHT EAST FLOW AND THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THIS SET UP FAVORS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND THE WESTERN SLOPES. ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND WILL TRACK TOWARD
THE WEST.

BY MONDAY THE CORE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD DROP INTO NORTHERN NEVADA,
WHICH WILL SWITCH THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY
ALSO LOOKS STRONGER WHICH MAY ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE SIERRA, THEN TRACK EAST INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA. BRONG

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AFTER A MILD START TO THE WEEK THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING
MORE ON THE COOL AND WET SIDE OF THE WEATHER SPECTRUM. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE WEST COAST AND BEGINS TO MOVE
ONSHORE FOR MIDWEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES IN TERMS OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE ARE DECENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. AFTER THE INITIAL LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS IN BEHIND IT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, BUT
WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE MID 50S BY WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE IS
MORE VARIABILITY WITH THAT LOOKING AT THE DIFFERENT FORECAST MODELS.
THESE STORMS WILL NOT ONLY BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE
REGION, BUT THANKFULLY WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTY WINDS.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND POTENTIAL, BUT IT LOOKS
JUST BREEZY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SHIFTING TO A WETTER PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK.
WEISHAHN

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THRU SATURDAY.
WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 171959
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1259 PM PDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA THIS
WEEKEND. A MUCH COLDER LOW MAY MOVE INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TODAY. WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA CREST THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE KEEPING
THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OREGON THROUGH THE WEEKEND
LEAVING A LIGHT EAST FLOW AND THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THIS SET UP FAVORS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND THE WESTERN SLOPES. ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND WILL TRACK TOWARD
THE WEST.

BY MONDAY THE CORE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD DROP INTO NORTHERN NEVADA,
WHICH WILL SWITCH THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY
ALSO LOOKS STRONGER WHICH MAY ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE SIERRA, THEN TRACK EAST INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA. BRONG

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AFTER A MILD START TO THE WEEK THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING
MORE ON THE COOL AND WET SIDE OF THE WEATHER SPECTRUM. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE WEST COAST AND BEGINS TO MOVE
ONSHORE FOR MIDWEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES IN TERMS OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE ARE DECENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. AFTER THE INITIAL LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS IN BEHIND IT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, BUT
WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE MID 50S BY WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE IS
MORE VARIABILITY WITH THAT LOOKING AT THE DIFFERENT FORECAST MODELS.
THESE STORMS WILL NOT ONLY BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE
REGION, BUT THANKFULLY WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTY WINDS.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND POTENTIAL, BUT IT LOOKS
JUST BREEZY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SHIFTING TO A WETTER PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK.
WEISHAHN

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THRU SATURDAY.
WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 171959
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1259 PM PDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA THIS
WEEKEND. A MUCH COLDER LOW MAY MOVE INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TODAY. WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA CREST THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE KEEPING
THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OREGON THROUGH THE WEEKEND
LEAVING A LIGHT EAST FLOW AND THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THIS SET UP FAVORS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND THE WESTERN SLOPES. ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND WILL TRACK TOWARD
THE WEST.

BY MONDAY THE CORE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD DROP INTO NORTHERN NEVADA,
WHICH WILL SWITCH THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY
ALSO LOOKS STRONGER WHICH MAY ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE SIERRA, THEN TRACK EAST INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA. BRONG

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AFTER A MILD START TO THE WEEK THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING
MORE ON THE COOL AND WET SIDE OF THE WEATHER SPECTRUM. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE WEST COAST AND BEGINS TO MOVE
ONSHORE FOR MIDWEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES IN TERMS OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE ARE DECENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. AFTER THE INITIAL LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS IN BEHIND IT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, BUT
WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE MID 50S BY WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE IS
MORE VARIABILITY WITH THAT LOOKING AT THE DIFFERENT FORECAST MODELS.
THESE STORMS WILL NOT ONLY BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE
REGION, BUT THANKFULLY WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTY WINDS.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND POTENTIAL, BUT IT LOOKS
JUST BREEZY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SHIFTING TO A WETTER PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK.
WEISHAHN

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THRU SATURDAY.
WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 171959
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1259 PM PDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA THIS
WEEKEND. A MUCH COLDER LOW MAY MOVE INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA BY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TODAY. WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA CREST THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE KEEPING
THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OREGON THROUGH THE WEEKEND
LEAVING A LIGHT EAST FLOW AND THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. THIS SET UP FAVORS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND THE WESTERN SLOPES. ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND WILL TRACK TOWARD
THE WEST.

BY MONDAY THE CORE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD DROP INTO NORTHERN NEVADA,
WHICH WILL SWITCH THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY
ALSO LOOKS STRONGER WHICH MAY ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE SIERRA, THEN TRACK EAST INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA. BRONG

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AFTER A MILD START TO THE WEEK THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING
MORE ON THE COOL AND WET SIDE OF THE WEATHER SPECTRUM. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE WEST COAST AND BEGINS TO MOVE
ONSHORE FOR MIDWEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES IN TERMS OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE ARE DECENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. AFTER THE INITIAL LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS IN BEHIND IT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, BUT
WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE MID 50S BY WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE IS
MORE VARIABILITY WITH THAT LOOKING AT THE DIFFERENT FORECAST MODELS.
THESE STORMS WILL NOT ONLY BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE
REGION, BUT THANKFULLY WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTY WINDS.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE WIND POTENTIAL, BUT IT LOOKS
JUST BREEZY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SHIFTING TO A WETTER PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK.
WEISHAHN

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THRU SATURDAY.
WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 171023 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
303 AM PDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SIERRA OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL SPREAD
INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY TUESDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA
WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES AND DECENT MIXING FOR MILD/WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TODAY. TONIGHT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A LARGE
DIURNAL SWING TO TEMPERATURES WITH A DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS.
HOWEVER, WITH HIGHS WARMING CONSIDERABLY TODAY AREAS THAT SEE SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE LESSENED
CONSIDERABLY OVER THIS MORNING.

SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S
FOR SIERRA AND LOWER VALLEYS, RESPECTIVELY. PRECIPITATION-WISE,
THE MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST CAN GET DEEP ENOUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS
OR EVEN ISOLATED, BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE CREST AFTER 2 PM AND THE
SREF HAS LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDER NEAR AND WEST OF THE CREST.
CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID-APRIL WOULD INDICATE THAT DIURNALLY-LINKED
CONVECTION TYPICALLY HAS A HARD TIME BUILDING (HOWEVER, GAME ON IN A
FEW WEEKS) WITH NO UPPER FORCING. INDEED, LAST WEEKEND FLAT CUMULUS
WERE ALL THAT WERE NOTED DESPITE THE NAM/GFS INDICATING
PRECIPITATION. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND, I HAVE PULLED THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST BUT LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN CASE CUMULUS GET
DEEP ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGH SIERRA.

SUNDAY, MANY MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION RESTRICTED TO SOUTH OF
TAHOE AS INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
KEEPS ANYTHING FROM TAHOE NORTH TO THE WEST OF THE CREST. EVEN
OVER MONO COUNTY MODELS SHOW CONVECTION SLIDING WEST OF THE CREST.
WITH THIS IN MIND, I HAVE RESTRICTED SLIGHT CHANCES TO WEST OF
HIGHWAY 395 ON SUNDAY. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM WITH MILD CONDITIONS
EARLY IN THE WEEK COOLING TOWARD MID TO LATE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE COAST MONDAY WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INLAND FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING
WITH A MORE NORTHERN TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH THE
LOW AS THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW PHASES A LITTLE WITH IT. THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INTERACTION WHILE THE EC IS
WARMER AND KEEPS THEM MORE SEPARATE. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
THE ENSEMBLES AS BOTH THE GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE SHOW BOTH THEIR
RESPECTIVE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS TO BE EXTREMES.

MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST POSSIBLY MOVING A LITTLE EAST IN THE EVENING. THERE IS
A BETTER CHANCE TUESDAY AS THE LOW NEARS WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND
COOLING ALOFT OFFSETTING THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SURFACE TEMPS. WEDNESDAY,
BOTH THE GFS/EC SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THE EC IS
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AS ITS LOW IS NOT AS DEEP. THE GFS IS THEN
VERY COLD FOR THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN LOW SAGS SOUTH, WHILE THE EC
IS JUST BRINGING THE MAIN LOW INTO EASTERN NEVADA AND KEEPING THE
NORTHERN LOW IN WASHINGTON. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AREAWIDE AND TEMPS MORE MODERATE. WE SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH WIND NEXT
WEEK EITHER AS WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAK WITH THE LOW, ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE LOCALLY BREEZY WEST WINDS TUES/WED AFTERNOONS. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THRU SATURDAY.
WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)











000
FXUS65 KREV 171003
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
303 AM PDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SIERRA OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL SPREAD
INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY TUESDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA
WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES AND DECENT MIXING FOR MILD/WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TODAY. TONIGHT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A LARGE
DIURNAL SWING TO TEMPERATURES WITH A DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS.
HOWEVER, WITH HIGHS WARMING CONSIDERABLY TODAY AREAS THAT SEE SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE LESSENED
CONSIDERABLY OVER THIS MORNING.

SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S
FOR SIERRA AND LOWER VALLEYS, RESPECTIVELY. PRECIPITATION-WISE,
THE MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST CAN GET DEEP ENOUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS
OR EVEN ISOLATED, BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE CREST AFTER 2 PM AND THE
SREF HAS LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDER NEAR AND WEST OF THE CREST.
PATTERN RECOGNITION FOR MID-APRIL WOULD INDICATE THAT DIURNALLY-
LINKED CONVECTION TYPICALLY HAS A HARD TIME BUILDING (HOWEVER,
GAME ON IN A FEW WEEKS) WITH NO UPPER FORCING. INDEED, LAST
WEEKEND FLAT CUMULUS WERE ALL THAT WERE NOTED DESPITE THE NAM/GFS
INDICATING PRECIPITATION. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND, I HAVE PULLED
THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST BUT LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN
CASE CUMULUS GET DEEP ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
HIGH SIERRA.

SUNDAY, MANY MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION RESTRICTED TO SOUTH OF
TAHOE AS INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
KEEPS ANYTHING FROM TAHOE NORTH TO THE WEST OF THE CREST. EVEN
OVER MONO COUNTY MODELS SHOW CONVECTION SLIDING WEST OF THE CREST.
WITH THIS IN MIND, I HAVE RESTRICTED SLIGHT CHANCES TO WEST OF
HIGHWAY 395 ON SUNDAY. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM WITH MILD CONDITIONS
EARLY IN THE WEEK COOLING TOWARD MID TO LATE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE COAST MONDAY WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INLAND FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING
WITH A MORE NORTHERN TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH THE
LOW AS THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW PHASES A LITTLE WITH IT. THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INTERACTION WHILE THE EC IS
WARMER AND KEEPS THEM MORE SEPARATE. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
THE ENSEMBLES AS BOTH THE GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE SHOW BOTH THEIR
RESPECTIVE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS TO BE EXTREMES.

MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST POSSIBLY MOVING A LITTLE EAST IN THE EVENING. THERE IS
A BETTER CHANCE TUESDAY AS THE LOW NEARS WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND
COOLING ALOFT OFFSETTING THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SURFACE TEMPS. WEDNESDAY,
BOTH THE GFS/EC SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THE EC IS
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AS ITS LOW IS NOT AS DEEP. THE GFS IS THEN
VERY COLD FOR THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN LOW SAGS SOUTH, WHILE THE EC
IS JUST BRINGING THE MAIN LOW INTO EASTERN NEVADA AND KEEPING THE
NORTHERN LOW IN WASHINGTON. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AREAWIDE AND TEMPS MORE MODERATE. WE SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH WIND NEXT
WEEK EITHER AS WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAK WITH THE LOW, ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE LOCALLY BREEZY WEST WINDS TUES/WED AFTERNOONS. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THRU SATURDAY.
WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 171003
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
303 AM PDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SIERRA OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL SPREAD
INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY TUESDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA
WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES AND DECENT MIXING FOR MILD/WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TODAY. TONIGHT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A LARGE
DIURNAL SWING TO TEMPERATURES WITH A DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS.
HOWEVER, WITH HIGHS WARMING CONSIDERABLY TODAY AREAS THAT SEE SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE LESSENED
CONSIDERABLY OVER THIS MORNING.

SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S
FOR SIERRA AND LOWER VALLEYS, RESPECTIVELY. PRECIPITATION-WISE,
THE MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST CAN GET DEEP ENOUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS
OR EVEN ISOLATED, BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE CREST AFTER 2 PM AND THE
SREF HAS LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDER NEAR AND WEST OF THE CREST.
PATTERN RECOGNITION FOR MID-APRIL WOULD INDICATE THAT DIURNALLY-
LINKED CONVECTION TYPICALLY HAS A HARD TIME BUILDING (HOWEVER,
GAME ON IN A FEW WEEKS) WITH NO UPPER FORCING. INDEED, LAST
WEEKEND FLAT CUMULUS WERE ALL THAT WERE NOTED DESPITE THE NAM/GFS
INDICATING PRECIPITATION. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND, I HAVE PULLED
THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST BUT LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN
CASE CUMULUS GET DEEP ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
HIGH SIERRA.

SUNDAY, MANY MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION RESTRICTED TO SOUTH OF
TAHOE AS INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
KEEPS ANYTHING FROM TAHOE NORTH TO THE WEST OF THE CREST. EVEN
OVER MONO COUNTY MODELS SHOW CONVECTION SLIDING WEST OF THE CREST.
WITH THIS IN MIND, I HAVE RESTRICTED SLIGHT CHANCES TO WEST OF
HIGHWAY 395 ON SUNDAY. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM WITH MILD CONDITIONS
EARLY IN THE WEEK COOLING TOWARD MID TO LATE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE COAST MONDAY WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INLAND FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING
WITH A MORE NORTHERN TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH THE
LOW AS THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW PHASES A LITTLE WITH IT. THE GFS IS
MUCH COOLER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INTERACTION WHILE THE EC IS
WARMER AND KEEPS THEM MORE SEPARATE. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
THE ENSEMBLES AS BOTH THE GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE SHOW BOTH THEIR
RESPECTIVE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS TO BE EXTREMES.

MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST POSSIBLY MOVING A LITTLE EAST IN THE EVENING. THERE IS
A BETTER CHANCE TUESDAY AS THE LOW NEARS WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND
COOLING ALOFT OFFSETTING THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SURFACE TEMPS. WEDNESDAY,
BOTH THE GFS/EC SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALTHOUGH THE EC IS
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AS ITS LOW IS NOT AS DEEP. THE GFS IS THEN
VERY COLD FOR THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN LOW SAGS SOUTH, WHILE THE EC
IS JUST BRINGING THE MAIN LOW INTO EASTERN NEVADA AND KEEPING THE
NORTHERN LOW IN WASHINGTON. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AREAWIDE AND TEMPS MORE MODERATE. WE SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH WIND NEXT
WEEK EITHER AS WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAK WITH THE LOW, ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE LOCALLY BREEZY WEST WINDS TUES/WED AFTERNOONS. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THRU SATURDAY.
WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 162149
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
250 PM PDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STARTING FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SIERRA OVER
THE WEEKEND THEN SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA HAS BROUGHT A DRY AIRMASS
TO THE REGION. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH CRISP CONDITIONS
FRIDAY MORNING AS DRY AIR MAXIMIZES RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEVADA WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING WITH SOME
OUTLYING VALLEYS DROPPING BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.

WARMING TREND CONTINUES TOMORROW AS HIGH TEMPS AROUND THE AREA CLIMB
ANOTHER 10 DEGREES OR SO. HIGHS IN WESTERN NEVADA ARE EXPECTED IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH MID 60S IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS.

BY THE WEEKEND, A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DEVELOPS OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST, BRINGING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ALOFT AND BRINGING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE SIERRA. THIS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE
WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA CREST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. A FEW CUMULUS TOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS BY MIDWEEK
AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASON AVERAGES WITH MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA AND MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SIERRA AND FAR NORTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA. HEATING ALONG ELEVATED TERRAIN AND THE PROXIMITY OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL AID
IN DEVELOPING INSTABILITY ALONG THE SIERRA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS
SUCH, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASES TUESDAY
AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST 24
HOURS BUT STILL ENOUGH DISCREPANCY TO PUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
LOW TO MEDIUM RANGE. BY WEDNESDAY, THE EC AND GFS BRING IN THE
LARGER SCALE TROUGH IN MORE OF A CONSOLIDATED FASHION BUT HAVE BEEN
TRENDING TOWARDS DIGGING THE TROUGH OFFSHORE WHICH IS KEEPING THE
TROUGH AXIS AND COLDEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO THE WEST. THIS HAS
IMPLICATIONS ON INSTABILITY AND FORCING ACROSS THE REGION. WEDNESDAY
IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THE MORE FAVORABLE DAY FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION BUT HAVE ONLY MADE A SMALL UPWARD TREND IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS A RESULT OF THE DIGGING TROUGH AND WESTERN TREND OF THE
CORE OF THE LOW. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS. FUENTES

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)









000
FXUS65 KREV 162149
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
250 PM PDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES STARTING FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SIERRA OVER
THE WEEKEND THEN SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA HAS BROUGHT A DRY AIRMASS
TO THE REGION. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH CRISP CONDITIONS
FRIDAY MORNING AS DRY AIR MAXIMIZES RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEVADA WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING WITH SOME
OUTLYING VALLEYS DROPPING BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.

WARMING TREND CONTINUES TOMORROW AS HIGH TEMPS AROUND THE AREA CLIMB
ANOTHER 10 DEGREES OR SO. HIGHS IN WESTERN NEVADA ARE EXPECTED IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH MID 60S IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS.

BY THE WEEKEND, A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DEVELOPS OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST, BRINGING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ALOFT AND BRINGING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE SIERRA. THIS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE
WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA CREST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. A FEW CUMULUS TOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS BY MIDWEEK
AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASON AVERAGES WITH MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA AND MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SIERRA AND FAR NORTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA. HEATING ALONG ELEVATED TERRAIN AND THE PROXIMITY OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL AID
IN DEVELOPING INSTABILITY ALONG THE SIERRA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS
SUCH, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION INCREASES TUESDAY
AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST 24
HOURS BUT STILL ENOUGH DISCREPANCY TO PUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
LOW TO MEDIUM RANGE. BY WEDNESDAY, THE EC AND GFS BRING IN THE
LARGER SCALE TROUGH IN MORE OF A CONSOLIDATED FASHION BUT HAVE BEEN
TRENDING TOWARDS DIGGING THE TROUGH OFFSHORE WHICH IS KEEPING THE
TROUGH AXIS AND COLDEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO THE WEST. THIS HAS
IMPLICATIONS ON INSTABILITY AND FORCING ACROSS THE REGION. WEDNESDAY
IS STILL LOOKING LIKE THE MORE FAVORABLE DAY FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION BUT HAVE ONLY MADE A SMALL UPWARD TREND IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS A RESULT OF THE DIGGING TROUGH AND WESTERN TREND OF THE
CORE OF THE LOW. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS. FUENTES

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










000
FXUS65 KREV 160954
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
254 AM PDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES, WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES STARTING FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS IN
THE SIERRA OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE GUSTING TO BETWEEN 50-70 MPH OVER EXPOSED
RIDGES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SIERRA CREST, WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH A
BIT FARTHER EAST IN THE CARSON RANGE AND OVER WHITE MOUNTAIN PEAK.
THE WINDS ARE DUE TO A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE SIERRA
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MEANWHILE, SLOPE AND
VALLEY WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES INTO WESTERN
NEVADA AND DECOUPLING IS ENHANCED BY A DRY AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL JUMP 5-10 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY`S HIGHS WITH
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR SIERRA AND LOWER
VALLEYS, RESPECTIVELY) EXPECTED AFTER A CHILLY, SUB-FREEZING START
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS RISING ANOTHER 7-10 DEGREES AS AN UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE
PACIFIC COAST BUILDS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.

ON SATURDAY, THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WITH A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING ABOVE 500 MB AS THE EXTREME TAIL END OF A TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS IS LEFT BEHIND OVER THE WEST. WITH HIGHS
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND THE SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT, THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE SIERRA CREST FOR SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS BY
MIDWEEK. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASON AVERAGES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME DAYTIME INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE SIERRA WITH CUMULUS BUILD UPS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND WILL LIKELY SHIFT US TO A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN.
THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEGUN TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR TRACK ALTHOUGH
SOME SPREAD IS STILL NOTED IN THE ENSEMBLES AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS
ONLY MEDIUM. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS BRING LOW INTO THE CENTRAL CA
COAST WEDNESDAY AND THEN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NV THU BEFORE HEADING
TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE GFS TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES AROUND 700 MB ARE AS COLD AS -10C WITH
THIS SYSTEM WHICH WOULD BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
SOME HEALTHY INSTABILITY. THIS WOULD PROVIDE INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES WITH PERIODS OF STEADY RAIN POSSIBLE. WE BUMPED UP POPS TO
CHANCE CATEGORY MANY PLACES WED-THU AND COOLED TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY SIERRA AND SOUTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO TRACK OF UPPER LOW.
FURTHER TRENDING OF POPS UPWARD AND TEMPS DOWNWARD IS POSSIBLE AS
WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER AND MODELS BEGIN TO LATCH ON TO A
PARTICULAR TRACK. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE LOW COULD TRACK
A BIT FURTHER SOUTH PER THE GEM AND SOME OF THE MORE SOUTHERN
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LESS PRECIPITATION.
FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE START OF WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE A GENERAL LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST
FLOW. FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








000
FXUS65 KREV 160954
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
254 AM PDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES, WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES STARTING FRIDAY AND LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS IN
THE SIERRA OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE GUSTING TO BETWEEN 50-70 MPH OVER EXPOSED
RIDGES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SIERRA CREST, WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH A
BIT FARTHER EAST IN THE CARSON RANGE AND OVER WHITE MOUNTAIN PEAK.
THE WINDS ARE DUE TO A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE SIERRA
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MEANWHILE, SLOPE AND
VALLEY WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT AS THE HIGH SETTLES INTO WESTERN
NEVADA AND DECOUPLING IS ENHANCED BY A DRY AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL JUMP 5-10 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY`S HIGHS WITH
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR SIERRA AND LOWER
VALLEYS, RESPECTIVELY) EXPECTED AFTER A CHILLY, SUB-FREEZING START
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS RISING ANOTHER 7-10 DEGREES AS AN UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE
PACIFIC COAST BUILDS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.

ON SATURDAY, THE RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WITH A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING ABOVE 500 MB AS THE EXTREME TAIL END OF A TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS IS LEFT BEHIND OVER THE WEST. WITH HIGHS
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND THE SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT, THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE SIERRA CREST FOR SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS BY
MIDWEEK. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASON AVERAGES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME DAYTIME INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE SIERRA WITH CUMULUS BUILD UPS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND WILL LIKELY SHIFT US TO A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN.
THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEGUN TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR TRACK ALTHOUGH
SOME SPREAD IS STILL NOTED IN THE ENSEMBLES AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS
ONLY MEDIUM. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS BRING LOW INTO THE CENTRAL CA
COAST WEDNESDAY AND THEN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NV THU BEFORE HEADING
TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE GFS TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES AROUND 700 MB ARE AS COLD AS -10C WITH
THIS SYSTEM WHICH WOULD BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
SOME HEALTHY INSTABILITY. THIS WOULD PROVIDE INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES WITH PERIODS OF STEADY RAIN POSSIBLE. WE BUMPED UP POPS TO
CHANCE CATEGORY MANY PLACES WED-THU AND COOLED TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY SIERRA AND SOUTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO TRACK OF UPPER LOW.
FURTHER TRENDING OF POPS UPWARD AND TEMPS DOWNWARD IS POSSIBLE AS
WE GET A LITTLE CLOSER AND MODELS BEGIN TO LATCH ON TO A
PARTICULAR TRACK. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE LOW COULD TRACK
A BIT FURTHER SOUTH PER THE GEM AND SOME OF THE MORE SOUTHERN
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LESS PRECIPITATION.
FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE START OF WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE A GENERAL LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST
FLOW. FUENTES/HOHMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







000
FXUS65 KREV 152155
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
255 PM PDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A TREND OF WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND . THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN
EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS
EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY BREEZY
EAST WINDS OVER THE SIERRA CREST. GRADIENTS WILL RELAX EVEN MORE BY
THURSDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER US.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MANY VALLEYS IN WESTERN
NEVADA FALLING BELOW FREEZING AGAIN. TEMPERATURES BEGIN THEIR
WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. EXPECT BEAUTIFUL SUNNY
SPRING CONDITIONS AS HIGHS IN THE MID 70S FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND MID
60S IN THE SIERRA.

BY SATURDAY, IT`S POSSIBLE THAT LOW PRESSURE MAY CUT OFF NEAR THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST, HELPING TO BRING SOME MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE UP ALONG THE SIERRA CREST. NOTHING MUCH INITIALLY, BUT
WE DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SIERRA SOUTH OF TAHOE
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
ARE EXPECTED BEYOND SATURDAY. HOON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

DRY AND WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS BY
MIDWEEK. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASON AVERAGES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME DAYTIME INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WITH CUMULUS BUILD UPS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY FOR THE SIERRA ACROSS ALPINE AND MONO COUNTY. ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND WILL LIKELY SHIFT US TO A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN.
THOUGH MOST GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP THIS FEATURE, ITS CHARACTERISTICS
AND TIMING ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE AT THIS POINT. THE GFS SPLITS THE LOW
AND BRINGS IT ONSHORE IN SEPARATE SMALL SCALE LOWS WHILE THE EC
BRINGS ONE COLD AND CONSOLIDATED LOW BY WEDNESDAY. TOO EARLY AT THIS
POINT TO TALKS SPECIFICS WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST WETTER BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AROUND 700MB SHOWING AS
COLD AS -10C SO THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT ALONG WITH SOME HEALTHY INSTABILITY WHICH MAY
PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM IN
HAVING THIS LOW MATERIALIZE MID-WEEK BUT GIVEN LARGE ENSEMBLE
SPREADS AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL CONTRASTS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IN
REGARDS TO TIMING. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE START OF WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURES
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE A GENERAL LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST
FLOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)











000
FXUS65 KREV 152155
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
255 PM PDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A TREND OF WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND . THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS NEAR THE
SIERRA CREST SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AN
EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS
EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY BREEZY
EAST WINDS OVER THE SIERRA CREST. GRADIENTS WILL RELAX EVEN MORE BY
THURSDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER US.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MANY VALLEYS IN WESTERN
NEVADA FALLING BELOW FREEZING AGAIN. TEMPERATURES BEGIN THEIR
WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. EXPECT BEAUTIFUL SUNNY
SPRING CONDITIONS AS HIGHS IN THE MID 70S FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND MID
60S IN THE SIERRA.

BY SATURDAY, IT`S POSSIBLE THAT LOW PRESSURE MAY CUT OFF NEAR THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST, HELPING TO BRING SOME MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE UP ALONG THE SIERRA CREST. NOTHING MUCH INITIALLY, BUT
WE DO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SIERRA SOUTH OF TAHOE
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
ARE EXPECTED BEYOND SATURDAY. HOON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

DRY AND WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS BY
MIDWEEK. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, A WEAK FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASON AVERAGES. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME DAYTIME INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WITH CUMULUS BUILD UPS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY FOR THE SIERRA ACROSS ALPINE AND MONO COUNTY. ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND WILL LIKELY SHIFT US TO A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN.
THOUGH MOST GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP THIS FEATURE, ITS CHARACTERISTICS
AND TIMING ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE AT THIS POINT. THE GFS SPLITS THE LOW
AND BRINGS IT ONSHORE IN SEPARATE SMALL SCALE LOWS WHILE THE EC
BRINGS ONE COLD AND CONSOLIDATED LOW BY WEDNESDAY. TOO EARLY AT THIS
POINT TO TALKS SPECIFICS WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST WETTER BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AROUND 700MB SHOWING AS
COLD AS -10C SO THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT ALONG WITH SOME HEALTHY INSTABILITY WHICH MAY
PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM IN
HAVING THIS LOW MATERIALIZE MID-WEEK BUT GIVEN LARGE ENSEMBLE
SPREADS AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL CONTRASTS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IN
REGARDS TO TIMING. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE START OF WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURES
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SEE A GENERAL LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST
FLOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)












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