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000
FXUS65 KREV 101023
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
223 AM PST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL BECOME LESS ESTABLISHED EACH DAY WITH IMPROVED
MIXING BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHERN LASSEN AND WASHOE COUNTIES BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...

MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA TODAY. PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BLOCKING THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND KEEPING IT NORTH IN
OREGON/WASHINGTON. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER IN
THE WEST KEEPING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY. SURFACE
INVERSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL BECOME LESS
STRONG BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR IMPROVED MIXING CONDITIONS. THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE AND
IMPROVED MIXING WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH RECORDS BY
FRIDAY. FOR EXAMPLE, THE RENO-TAHOE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECORD
HIGH IS 67 DEGREES FOR FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 12TH (FROM 1924, 2014, AND
2015) AND THE FORECAST HIGH IS CURRENTLY 67 DEGREES.

A WEAK COLD FRONT BRUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. KEPT IN ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN AREAS ACROSS MODOC COUNTY AND WESTERN LASSEN
AND PLUMAS COUNTIES FOR NOW. ELW

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCES A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER NORTH OF A
PORTOLA-GERLACH LINE SATURDAY FROM A SYSTEM BRUSHING ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THE PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
OVERLY AMPLIFIED WITH JET ENERGY AND MOISTURE REACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. THIS MAY BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS TO THE SIERRA AND
NORTHWEST NEVADA, BUT THE MOISTURE AND FORCING IS TOO FAR NORTH FOR
ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF WARM AIR
IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LONGER RANGE OUTLOOKS ARE STILL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MOIST
TROUGH TO REACH THE WEST COAST BY THE MIDDLE OR END OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS THE QUESTION OF HOW A NORTHERN TROUGH MAY OR MAY NOT PHASE
WITH A REMNANT CLOSED LOW AROUND 20N/130W AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS WOULD IMPACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, LEAVING CONFIDENCE LOW. THE MAIN MESSAGE IS OVERALL MODEL
TRENDS ARE LEANING TOWARD WET WEATHER RETURNING WITH COOLER,
ALBEIT, STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OVER THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RIDGE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS. THIS MAY
CREATE LIGHT TURBULENCE NEAR AND ACROSS THE SIERRA.

PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND A DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT, BUT PATCHY, SHALLOW FZFG IS LIKELY THROUGH THE MARTIS
VALLEY, INCLUDING KTRK, THIS MORNING. THIS WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 15-
16Z. DJ


&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 092228
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
228 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP POLLUTANTS AND MAY CREATE
HAZY CONDITIONS AS WELL. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER CA/NV
BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE
INVERSIONS MAY CONTINUE TO BRING HAZY CONDITIONS TO VALLEY LOCATIONS
EACH MORNING, WITH PATCHY OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
MARTIS VALLEY. THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH MIXING EACH AFTERNOON TO
PREVENT A STEADY BUILD-UP OF POLLUTANTS, AND AS A RESULT AIR
QUALITY SENSORS HAVE NOT INCREASED INTO THE UNHEALTHY CATEGORIES.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS AFTERNOON MIXING
INCREASES A BIT EACH DAY.

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT JUST
OFFSHORE, BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHUNT IT NORTHWARD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH ONLY AN INCREASE OF HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ALSO WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND. MODEL
SIMULATIONS SHOW A BIT MORE MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT, JUST ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MODOC COUNTY AND FOR
WESTERN LASSEN AND PLUMAS COUNTIES. JCM

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

OTHER THAN A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS NORTH OF A PORTOLA TO GERLACH LINE
FROM A SYSTEM AIMING AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE FORECAST WILL BE
DRY FOR EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA FOR THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY DIP TO NEAR AVERAGE NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH SATURDAY, OTHERWISE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN CHARGE.

SATURDAY, THE WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
WELL NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR REMAINING
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES STATES, HIGHS WILL REBOUND
TO ABOVE AVERAGE (AND REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ELSEWHERE) OVER FAR
NORTHWEST NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR VALLEYS WITH
MAINLY LIGHT WINDS.

LOOKING BEYOND THE 7-DAY PERIOD, THE RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN FOR MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z/12Z ECMWF SHOW A FAIRLY FAST
MOVING DISTURBANCE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC BRIEFLY COMBINING WITH
MOISTURE FROM A CUTOFF LOW FAR OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS
COULD BOOST PRECIPITATION SOMEWHAT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM
ALONE. AS USUAL, THAT IS JUST ONE POSSIBILITY AS DETAILS ARE LIKELY
TO CHANGE AS WE HOME IN ON THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN ANY CASE, THE
RIDGE DOES LOOK TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY FOR SOME PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE PLUMES LOOK UNLIKELY UNTIL LATER IN
THE MONTH. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN SIERRA, NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. VALLEY WINDS TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
(AOB 8 KTS) THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH RIDGES BLOWING SW-W UP TO 20 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

AS FAR AS FOG, THE USUAL FOG SUSPECT THAT IS THE MARTIS VALLEY/KTRK
MAY SEE PATCHIER FOG TONIGHT AS IT HAS DRIED OUT AND WARMED OVER
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD.
ELSEWHERE, ANY FOG SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
DIRECTLY AFFECT TERMINALS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 091017
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
217 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAP POLLUTANTS AND MAY CREATE
HAZY CONDITIONS AS WELL. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES POSSIBLE BY WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK. PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER
VALLEYS IN THE SIERRA AND FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE BASIN AND
RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST WILL BE FOR
LIGHT WINDS AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS,
WITH MANY LOCATIONS FORECAST TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
AVERAGE. INVERSIONS WILL LIMIT WARMING IN THE LOWER VALLEYS
INITIALLY, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE A QUICKER WARM UP.

AIR QUALITY MAY BE A CONCERN THROUGH MIDWEEK AS POLLUTANTS AND
HAZE BUILD UP AND BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSIONS. ALTHOUGH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY ALLOW
FOR IMPROVED MIXING AND VISIBILITY. GO TO AIRNOW.GOV FOR AIR
QUALITY INFORMATION. ELW

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST FRIDAY, BUT
RAPIDLY WEAKENS AND PARTIALLY SPLITS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG
RIDGE. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM AND KEEPING THE BULK OF THE ALREADY MEAGER MOISTURE NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE OREGON BORDER, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE WESTERN RIDGE. THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN SIERRA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, BUT TOTALS WILL BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. WITH THE
SYSTEM RIDING NORTH OVER THE RIDGE, THERE WON`T BE AS MUCH COLD AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION, SO TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN MILD AND
ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEAK RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT THE PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS AMPLIFIED WITH
JET ENERGY AND MOISTURE REACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS
MAY BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS TO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, BUT
THE MOISTURE AND FORCING IS TOO FAR NORTH FOR ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. LONGER RANGE OUTLOOKS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MOIST TROUGH TO REACH THE WEST COAST BY THE MIDDLE OR END OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS HAS BEEN SHOWING UP IN THE PAST COUPLE OF FORECAST MODEL
RUNS, BUT THE EVOLUTION HAS DIFFERED GREATLY. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER
RETURNING. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OVER THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST RIDGE WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS. THIS MAY
CREATE LIGHT TURBULENCE NEAR AND ACROSS THE SIERRA.

PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE MARTIS AND SIERRA
VALLEYS, INCLUDING KTRK THIS MORNING. IN FACT, OBSERVATIONS AT KTRK
ARE SHOWING 1/4SM IN FZFG AS OF 1 AM, BUT BASED ON THE RUNWAY
WEBCAM, IT APPEARS THIS IS SHALLOW AND VERY LOCALIZED. FREEZING
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KLOL EARLY THIS MORNING.
FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 14-16Z. DJ

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 082242
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
242 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATER
IN THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WARM. THERE IS NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY, AND THEN ONLY A SLIM CHANCE WELL
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH THURSDAY (AND BEYOND), FOR LIGHT WINDS
AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EVERYWHERE BY
THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE ALREADY REACHED UP TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE SIERRA TODAY (WITH RECORDS LIKELY IN SOME
SPOTS THIS WEEK). HIGHS WILL LAG SOME OUT IN THE BASIN AND RANGE
(LOVELOCK/FALLON/HAWTHORNE/YERINGTON) AS COLDER NIGHTS AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS ALLOW INVERSIONS TO RESTRICT WARMING MORE EFFECTIVELY.

AS FAR AS FOG/LOW STRATUS, THERE WAS EVIDENCE OF PATCHY FOG NEAR
THE LOVELOCK AIRPORT THIS MORNING (ASOS) AND THERE WAS PATCHY FOG
IN THE MARTIS VALLEY AROUND THE TRUCKEE AIRPORT. ELSEWHERE,
THERE WAS NO OBVIOUS EVIDENCE OF FOG BUT WILL LEAVE IN FOR THE
SIERRA VALLEY TONIGHT WITH NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
AND AS THAT IS A FAVORED SPOT FOR FOG GIVEN THE WATER SOURCE
(FEATHER RIVER BASIN). SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH OVERALL MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY PROSPECT FOR
SEEING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED, WEAKENED, AND SPLIT THIS SYSTEM OVER THE LAST
FEW RUNS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE AXIS. THE BEST PROSPECTS TO SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY AND INTO THE
SURPRISE VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK LIGHT AND GENERALLY
UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE IS EVEN SOME POTENTIAL
FOR A COMPLETE SPLIT OF THE LOW WITH NO RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT AND WILL KEEP
THE VERY LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITIES IN THE FORECAST.
OVERALL, CAN EXPECT INCREASED CLOUDS FRIDAY WITH RIDGING BECOMING
REESTABLISHED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S, WITH MOUNTAINS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THIS IS WARM FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, BUT NOT PUSHING RECORDS, WHICH ARE
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES HIGHER. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE TURBULENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THIS
EVENING WITH EAST WINDS ALONG SIERRA RIDGE TOPS STILL GUSTING IN THE
30-40KT RANGE. EXPECTING WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGES TO LIGHTEN AND TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OVER THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
WITH AREAS OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MARTIS VALLEY,
INCLUDING KTRK, EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, DISSIPATING BY AROUND 15Z.
FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 082242
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
242 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATER
IN THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WARM. THERE IS NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY, AND THEN ONLY A SLIM CHANCE WELL
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH THURSDAY (AND BEYOND), FOR LIGHT WINDS
AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EVERYWHERE BY
THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE ALREADY REACHED UP TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE SIERRA TODAY (WITH RECORDS LIKELY IN SOME
SPOTS THIS WEEK). HIGHS WILL LAG SOME OUT IN THE BASIN AND RANGE
(LOVELOCK/FALLON/HAWTHORNE/YERINGTON) AS COLDER NIGHTS AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS ALLOW INVERSIONS TO RESTRICT WARMING MORE EFFECTIVELY.

AS FAR AS FOG/LOW STRATUS, THERE WAS EVIDENCE OF PATCHY FOG NEAR
THE LOVELOCK AIRPORT THIS MORNING (ASOS) AND THERE WAS PATCHY FOG
IN THE MARTIS VALLEY AROUND THE TRUCKEE AIRPORT. ELSEWHERE,
THERE WAS NO OBVIOUS EVIDENCE OF FOG BUT WILL LEAVE IN FOR THE
SIERRA VALLEY TONIGHT WITH NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
AND AS THAT IS A FAVORED SPOT FOR FOG GIVEN THE WATER SOURCE
(FEATHER RIVER BASIN). SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH OVERALL MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY PROSPECT FOR
SEEING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED, WEAKENED, AND SPLIT THIS SYSTEM OVER THE LAST
FEW RUNS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE AXIS. THE BEST PROSPECTS TO SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY AND INTO THE
SURPRISE VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK LIGHT AND GENERALLY
UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE IS EVEN SOME POTENTIAL
FOR A COMPLETE SPLIT OF THE LOW WITH NO RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT AND WILL KEEP
THE VERY LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITIES IN THE FORECAST.
OVERALL, CAN EXPECT INCREASED CLOUDS FRIDAY WITH RIDGING BECOMING
REESTABLISHED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S, WITH MOUNTAINS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THIS IS WARM FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, BUT NOT PUSHING RECORDS, WHICH ARE
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES HIGHER. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE TURBULENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THIS
EVENING WITH EAST WINDS ALONG SIERRA RIDGE TOPS STILL GUSTING IN THE
30-40KT RANGE. EXPECTING WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGES TO LIGHTEN AND TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OVER THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
WITH AREAS OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MARTIS VALLEY,
INCLUDING KTRK, EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, DISSIPATING BY AROUND 15Z.
FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




000
FXUS65 KREV 082242
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
242 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. VALLEY INVERSIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATER
IN THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WARM. THERE IS NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY, AND THEN ONLY A SLIM CHANCE WELL
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH THURSDAY (AND BEYOND), FOR LIGHT WINDS
AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EVERYWHERE BY
THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE ALREADY REACHED UP TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE SIERRA TODAY (WITH RECORDS LIKELY IN SOME
SPOTS THIS WEEK). HIGHS WILL LAG SOME OUT IN THE BASIN AND RANGE
(LOVELOCK/FALLON/HAWTHORNE/YERINGTON) AS COLDER NIGHTS AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS ALLOW INVERSIONS TO RESTRICT WARMING MORE EFFECTIVELY.

AS FAR AS FOG/LOW STRATUS, THERE WAS EVIDENCE OF PATCHY FOG NEAR
THE LOVELOCK AIRPORT THIS MORNING (ASOS) AND THERE WAS PATCHY FOG
IN THE MARTIS VALLEY AROUND THE TRUCKEE AIRPORT. ELSEWHERE,
THERE WAS NO OBVIOUS EVIDENCE OF FOG BUT WILL LEAVE IN FOR THE
SIERRA VALLEY TONIGHT WITH NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
AND AS THAT IS A FAVORED SPOT FOR FOG GIVEN THE WATER SOURCE
(FEATHER RIVER BASIN). SNYDER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH OVERALL MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY PROSPECT FOR
SEEING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED, WEAKENED, AND SPLIT THIS SYSTEM OVER THE LAST
FEW RUNS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE AXIS. THE BEST PROSPECTS TO SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY AND INTO THE
SURPRISE VALLEY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY LOOK LIGHT AND GENERALLY
UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE IS EVEN SOME POTENTIAL
FOR A COMPLETE SPLIT OF THE LOW WITH NO RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT AND WILL KEEP
THE VERY LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITIES IN THE FORECAST.
OVERALL, CAN EXPECT INCREASED CLOUDS FRIDAY WITH RIDGING BECOMING
REESTABLISHED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S, WITH MOUNTAINS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THIS IS WARM FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, BUT NOT PUSHING RECORDS, WHICH ARE
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES HIGHER. FUENTES

&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE TURBULENCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THIS
EVENING WITH EAST WINDS ALONG SIERRA RIDGE TOPS STILL GUSTING IN THE
30-40KT RANGE. EXPECTING WINDS ACROSS THE RIDGES TO LIGHTEN AND TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OVER THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
WITH AREAS OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MARTIS VALLEY,
INCLUDING KTRK, EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, DISSIPATING BY AROUND 15Z.
FUENTES

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 081727
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
927 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATE TO RAISE WINDS ON PYRAMID LAKE AS THEY HAVE BEEN
BLOWING 8-14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH SINCE ABOUT 5:30 THIS
MORNING. AS FAR AS LAKE TAHOE, WINDS WERE AS HIGH AS 20-30 MPH
(BUOYS 2 AND 3) FOR A TIME EARLY THIS MORNING BUT ARE NOW MORE
BEHAVED IN THE 10-20 WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH RANGE. THEREFORE, THE
FORECAST FOR TAHOE WAS NOT CHANGED MUCH EXCEPT TO MENTION THAT
GUST TO 25 MPH COULD LAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SNYDER

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY
MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY, THEN WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN SLIM FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN SHORT TERM WEATHER ISSUE IS THE GUSTY EAST RIDGE LEVEL
WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND CARSON RANGE, GENERALLY RANGING
FROM 50-60 MPH SINCE YESTERDAY WITH A MAXIMUM GUST OF 74 MPH AT
ALPINE MEADOWS SUMMIT. THESE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD
TODAY, ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH COULD STILL OCCUR. ON LAKE
TAHOE, WIND GUSTS WERE PEAKING NEAR 25 MPH ON MID-LAKE BUOYS.
THESE WINDS WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR
2 FEET ALONG THE WEST SHORES MAINLY THROUGH THIS MORNING, BUT NOT
QUITE REACHING THE THRESHOLD FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE, AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST BY
THIS EVENING, OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE WITH RIDGE LEVEL
GUSTS BELOW 30 MPH. FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, A RELATIVELY WEAK SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SETS UP OVER EASTERN NV.

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, ALTHOUGH STRONG VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL ONLY ALLOW SLIGHT WARMING TO THE LOWER-MID 50S FOR
MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY. FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, THE WEAKENING
INVERSION WILL LEAD TO MORE LOCATIONS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 60
DEGREES. MJD

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM SPLITS
AND RAPIDLY WEAKENS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG RIDGE. OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND KEEPING THE
BULK OF THE ALREADY MEAGER MOISTURE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE OREGON
BORDER, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. HAVE
REMOVED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND REDUCED TO SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN SIERRA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IN THOSE AREAS WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION, OVERALL TOTALS WILL BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REBUILD INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S, WITH MOUNTAINS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THIS IS WARM FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, BUT NOT PUSHING RECORDS, WHICH ARE
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES HIGHER. DJ

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE
SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, WHILE
EASTERLY SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH 50 TO 60 KTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE TURBULENCE ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE SIERRA WITH MID-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR POSSIBLE
BETWEEN THE LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

PATCHY SHALLOW FREEZING GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MARTIS VALLEY,
INCLUDING KTRK, EARLY THIS MORNING, DISSIPATING BY AROUND 15Z. THERE
IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR FZFG IN THE SAME AREA IN ADDITION TO THE
SIERRA VALLEY THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS. DJ

REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 081109
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
309 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY
MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY, THEN WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN SLIM FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN SHORT TERM WEATHER ISSUE IS THE GUSTY EAST RIDGE LEVEL
WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND CARSON RANGE, GENERALLY RANGING
FROM 50-60 MPH SINCE YESTERDAY WITH A MAXIMUM GUST OF 74 MPH AT
ALPINE MEADOWS SUMMIT. THESE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD
TODAY, ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH COULD STILL OCCUR. ON LAKE
TAHOE, WIND GUSTS WERE PEAKING NEAR 25 MPH ON MID-LAKE BUOYS.
THESE WINDS WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR
2 FEET ALONG THE WEST SHORES MAINLY THROUGH THIS MORNING, BUT NOT
QUITE REACHING THE THRESHOLD FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE, AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST BY
THIS EVENING, OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE WITH RIDGE LEVEL
GUSTS BELOW 30 MPH. FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, A RELATIVELY WEAK SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SETS UP OVER EASTERN NV.

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, ALTHOUGH STRONG VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL ONLY ALLOW SLIGHT WARMING TO THE LOWER-MID 50S FOR
MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY. FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, THE WEAKENING
INVERSION WILL LEAD TO MORE LOCATIONS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 60
DEGREES. MJD


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM SPLITS
AND RAPIDLY WEAKENS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG RIDGE. OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND KEEPING THE
BULK OF THE ALREADY MEAGER MOISTURE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE OREGON
BORDER, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. HAVE
REMOVED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND REDUCED TO SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN SIERRA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IN THOSE AREAS WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION, OVERALL TOTALS WILL BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REBUILD INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S, WITH MOUNTAINS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THIS IS WARM FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, BUT NOT PUSHING RECORDS, WHICH ARE
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES HIGHER. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE
SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, WHILE
EASTERLY SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH 50 TO 60 KTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE TURBULENCE ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE SIERRA WITH MID-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR POSSIBLE
BETWEEN THE LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

PATCHY SHALLOW FREEZING GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MARTIS VALLEY,
INCLUDING KTRK, EARLY THIS MORNING, DISSIPATING BY AROUND 15Z. THERE
IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR FZFG IN THE SAME AREA IN ADDITION TO THE
SIERRA VALLEY THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS. DJ

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 081109
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
309 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY
MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY, THEN WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN SLIM FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN SHORT TERM WEATHER ISSUE IS THE GUSTY EAST RIDGE LEVEL
WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND CARSON RANGE, GENERALLY RANGING
FROM 50-60 MPH SINCE YESTERDAY WITH A MAXIMUM GUST OF 74 MPH AT
ALPINE MEADOWS SUMMIT. THESE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD
TODAY, ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH COULD STILL OCCUR. ON LAKE
TAHOE, WIND GUSTS WERE PEAKING NEAR 25 MPH ON MID-LAKE BUOYS.
THESE WINDS WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR
2 FEET ALONG THE WEST SHORES MAINLY THROUGH THIS MORNING, BUT NOT
QUITE REACHING THE THRESHOLD FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE, AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST BY
THIS EVENING, OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE WITH RIDGE LEVEL
GUSTS BELOW 30 MPH. FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, A RELATIVELY WEAK SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SETS UP OVER EASTERN NV.

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, ALTHOUGH STRONG VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL ONLY ALLOW SLIGHT WARMING TO THE LOWER-MID 50S FOR
MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY. FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, THE WEAKENING
INVERSION WILL LEAD TO MORE LOCATIONS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 60
DEGREES. MJD


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM SPLITS
AND RAPIDLY WEAKENS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG RIDGE. OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND KEEPING THE
BULK OF THE ALREADY MEAGER MOISTURE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE OREGON
BORDER, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. HAVE
REMOVED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND REDUCED TO SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN SIERRA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IN THOSE AREAS WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION, OVERALL TOTALS WILL BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REBUILD INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S, WITH MOUNTAINS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THIS IS WARM FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, BUT NOT PUSHING RECORDS, WHICH ARE
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES HIGHER. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE
SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, WHILE
EASTERLY SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH 50 TO 60 KTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE TURBULENCE ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE SIERRA WITH MID-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR POSSIBLE
BETWEEN THE LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

PATCHY SHALLOW FREEZING GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MARTIS VALLEY,
INCLUDING KTRK, EARLY THIS MORNING, DISSIPATING BY AROUND 15Z. THERE
IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR FZFG IN THE SAME AREA IN ADDITION TO THE
SIERRA VALLEY THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS. DJ

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





000
FXUS65 KREV 081109
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
309 AM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY
MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY, THEN WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN SLIM FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN SHORT TERM WEATHER ISSUE IS THE GUSTY EAST RIDGE LEVEL
WINDS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND CARSON RANGE, GENERALLY RANGING
FROM 50-60 MPH SINCE YESTERDAY WITH A MAXIMUM GUST OF 74 MPH AT
ALPINE MEADOWS SUMMIT. THESE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD
TODAY, ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH COULD STILL OCCUR. ON LAKE
TAHOE, WIND GUSTS WERE PEAKING NEAR 25 MPH ON MID-LAKE BUOYS.
THESE WINDS WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR
2 FEET ALONG THE WEST SHORES MAINLY THROUGH THIS MORNING, BUT NOT
QUITE REACHING THE THRESHOLD FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE, AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST BY
THIS EVENING, OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE WITH RIDGE LEVEL
GUSTS BELOW 30 MPH. FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, A RELATIVELY WEAK SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SETS UP OVER EASTERN NV.

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, ALTHOUGH STRONG VALLEY
INVERSIONS WILL ONLY ALLOW SLIGHT WARMING TO THE LOWER-MID 50S FOR
MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY. FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, THE WEAKENING
INVERSION WILL LEAD TO MORE LOCATIONS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 60
DEGREES. MJD


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM SPLITS
AND RAPIDLY WEAKENS AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG RIDGE. OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS BEEN SLOWING THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND KEEPING THE
BULK OF THE ALREADY MEAGER MOISTURE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE OREGON
BORDER, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. HAVE
REMOVED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND REDUCED TO SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN SIERRA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IN THOSE AREAS WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION, OVERALL TOTALS WILL BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REBUILD INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S, WITH MOUNTAINS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THIS IS WARM FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, BUT NOT PUSHING RECORDS, WHICH ARE
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES HIGHER. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE
SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, WHILE
EASTERLY SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH 50 TO 60 KTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE TURBULENCE ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE SIERRA WITH MID-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR POSSIBLE
BETWEEN THE LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

PATCHY SHALLOW FREEZING GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MARTIS VALLEY,
INCLUDING KTRK, EARLY THIS MORNING, DISSIPATING BY AROUND 15Z. THERE
IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR FZFG IN THE SAME AREA IN ADDITION TO THE
SIERRA VALLEY THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS. DJ

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




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